"""Calibration, exact expected-F0.5 selection per S1 (optionally with a missed-match term), one-owner arbitration, and the macro-F0.5 metric.""" import math import numpy as np import pandas as pd from sklearn.isotonic import IsotonicRegression # ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- metric MULT = np.int64(1 << 32) _GT_CACHE = {} def in_sorted(x, s): """Membership of x in sorted array s by binary search (no per-call hashing of s).""" if len(s) == 0: return np.zeros(len(x), dtype=bool) pos = np.clip(np.searchsorted(s, x), 0, len(s) - 1) return s[pos] == x def gt_keys(gt_q, gt_c): k = (id(gt_q), len(gt_q)) if k not in _GT_CACHE: _GT_CACHE[k] = np.sort(gt_q.astype(np.int64) * MULT + gt_c) return _GT_CACHE[k] def macro_f05(pred, q_eval, n_true, gt_q, gt_c): """pred: DataFrame(q, c) of predicted matches. Every q in q_eval counts, singletons included.""" q_eval = np.asarray(q_eval) pred = pred[in_sorted(pred.q.values.astype(np.int64), np.sort(q_eval).astype(np.int64))] k = pred.q.values.astype(np.int64) * MULT + pred.c.values tp = pd.Series(in_sorted(k, gt_keys(gt_q, gt_c)).astype(np.int64)).groupby(pred.q.values).sum() npred = pred.groupby("q").size() s = pd.DataFrame({"q": q_eval}) s["tp"] = s.q.map(tp).fillna(0).values s["np"] = s.q.map(npred).fillna(0).values s["nt"] = n_true[q_eval] p = np.where(s.np > 0, s.tp / s.np.clip(lower=1), 0) r = np.where(s.nt > 0, s.tp / s.nt.clip(lower=1), 0) f = np.where(s.tp > 0, 1.25 * p * r / (0.25 * p + r + 1e-12), 0.0) f = np.where((s.np == 0) & (s.nt == 0), 1.0, f) s["f"] = f return float(f.mean()), s def f05_selftest(): """The problem statement's worked example: predicted 3, true 2, both true predicted -> 0.714.""" pred = pd.DataFrame({"q": [0, 0, 0], "c": [1, 2, 3]}) f, _ = macro_f05(pred, [0], np.array([2]), np.array([0, 0]), np.array([1, 3])) assert abs(f - 0.7142857) < 1e-4, f f, _ = macro_f05(pred.iloc[:0], [0], np.array([0]), np.array([], np.int64), np.array([], np.int64)) assert f == 1.0 # ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- calibration def fit_isotonic(score, y): ir = IsotonicRegression(out_of_bounds="clip", y_min=0.0, y_max=1.0) ir.fit(score, y) return ir def fold_of(q, n, salt=0): """Deterministic group fold in [0, n) from a splitmix64 mix of (q, salt). Different salts give independent partitions (a linear hash would correlate them: e.g. parity would be shared).""" with np.errstate(over="ignore"): x = np.asarray(q).astype(np.uint64) + np.uint64(salt) * np.uint64(0x9E3779B97F4A7C15) x = (x ^ (x >> np.uint64(30))) * np.uint64(0xBF58476D1CE4E5B9) x = (x ^ (x >> np.uint64(27))) * np.uint64(0x94D049BB133111EB) x = x ^ (x >> np.uint64(31)) return (x % np.uint64(n)).astype(np.int64) def crossfit_isotonic(score, y, q, n_folds=5): out = np.empty_like(score, dtype=np.float64) fold = fold_of(q, n_folds, salt=0) for k in range(n_folds): m = fold == k out[m] = fit_isotonic(score[~m], y[~m]).predict(score[m]) return out # ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- expected F0.5 def _poisson(lam, n=8): if lam <= 0: return np.array([1.0]) v = np.array([math.exp(-lam) * lam ** k / math.factorial(k) for k in range(n)]) v[-1] += max(0.0, 1 - v.sum()) return v def best_k(p, miss=None): """p sorted descending. Exact E[F0.5] of taking the top-k for every k via Poisson-binomial DPs. `miss` is the distribution of the number of true matches that are NOT among the candidates (None = assume none).""" n = len(p) miss = np.array([1.0]) if miss is None else miss if n == 0: return 0, float(miss[0]) suf = [None] * (n + 1) d = miss.copy() # false negatives = unselected true candidates + missed matches suf[n] = d for i in range(n - 1, -1, -1): d = np.convolve(d, [1 - p[i], p[i]]) suf[i] = d best, best_v = 0, float(suf[0][0]) # k = 0 scores 1 only if there is no true match at all tp = np.array([1.0]) for k in range(1, n + 1): tp = np.convolve(tp, [1 - p[k - 1], p[k - 1]]) fn = suf[k] t = np.arange(k + 1)[:, None] f = np.arange(len(fn))[None, :] F = 1.25 * t / (0.25 * (t + f) + k) v = float((tp[:, None] * fn[None, :] * F).sum()) if v > best_v: best, best_v = k, v return best, best_v def expected_f05(p_sel, p_rest, miss=None): """E[F0.5] of predicting exactly the candidates with probabilities p_sel, when the other candidates have p_rest and `miss` is the distribution of true matches outside the candidate set (label-free self-assessment).""" tp = np.array([1.0]) for x in p_sel: tp = np.convolve(tp, [1 - x, x]) fn = np.array([1.0]) if miss is None else np.asarray(miss, dtype=np.float64) for x in p_rest: fn = np.convolve(fn, [1 - x, x]) k = len(p_sel) if k == 0: return float(fn[0]) t = np.arange(k + 1)[:, None] f = np.arange(len(fn))[None, :] return float((tp[:, None] * fn[None, :] * (1.25 * t / (0.25 * (t + f) + k))).sum()) def _choose_group(args): qs, probs_list, family, thr = args miss = _poisson(thr) if family == "expf05" and thr else None out = [] for q, p in zip(qs, probs_list): if family == "threshold": k = int((p >= thr).sum()) else: k, _ = best_k(p, miss) out.append(k) return out def choose(df, family, thr=None, pool=None, banned=None): """df(q, c, p) -> selected rows. Candidates sorted by p desc inside each q. For family "expf05", thr is the Poisson rate of missed matches per S1 (0/None = none).""" d = df.sort_values(["q", "p"], ascending=[True, False], kind="stable") if banned is not None and len(banned): d = d[~in_sorted(d.q.values.astype(np.int64) * MULT + d.c.values, banned)] d = d[d.p >= 1e-4] if d.empty: return d qv = d.q.values starts = np.flatnonzero(np.r_[True, qv[1:] != qv[:-1]]) ends = np.r_[starts[1:], len(d)] pv = d.p.values qs = qv[starts] probs = [pv[a:e] for a, e in zip(starts, ends)] step = 20_000 args = [(qs[i:i + step], probs[i:i + step], family, thr) for i in range(0, len(qs), step)] ks = [k for part in (pool.map(_choose_group, args) if pool else map(_choose_group, args)) for k in part] take = np.zeros(len(d), dtype=bool) for a, k in zip(starts, ks): take[a:a + k] = True return d[take] def decide(df, family, thr=None, max_iter=30, pool=None): """Per-S1 choice, then one-owner arbitration iterated to a fixpoint: the higher-probability claim keeps a contested S2/S3 record (ties broken by the smaller S1 index, deterministically) and the loser re-decides without it. Asserts one owner per record on exit.""" banned = np.empty(0, dtype=np.int64) sel = choose(df, family, thr, pool) for _ in range(max_iter): dup = sel[sel.duplicated("c", keep=False)] if dup.empty: break win = dup.sort_values(["c", "p", "q"], ascending=[True, False, True], kind="stable").drop_duplicates("c") lose = dup.merge(win[["c", "q"]], on="c", suffixes=("", "_w")) lose = lose[lose.q != lose.q_w] banned = np.union1d(banned, lose.q.values.astype(np.int64) * MULT + lose.c.values) redo = np.unique(lose.q.values) keep = sel[~np.isin(sel.q.values, redo)] again = choose(df[np.isin(df.q.values, redo)], family, thr, pool, banned) sel = pd.concat([keep, again], ignore_index=True) dup = sel[sel.duplicated("c", keep=False)] if not dup.empty: # not converged: drop the weaker claims outright sel = sel.sort_values(["c", "p", "q"], ascending=[True, False, True], kind="stable").drop_duplicates("c") assert not sel.c.duplicated().any(), "a record has two owners after arbitration" return sel.sort_values(["q", "p"], ascending=[True, False]).reset_index(drop=True)