{
  "schema": "pp3.cost-sensitivity.v1",
  "classification": "ESTIMATED conditional sensitivities from MEASURED proxies",
  "decision": "STOP: absolute selector target missed; full K2/pair/GB10 costs and long-context acceptance unmeasured",
  "single_launch_goal_met": false,
  "selector_absolute_005ms_goal_met": false,
  "parts": {
    "selector_addition_solo_synthetic_p95_ms": 0.1555456042289734,
    "sparse1280_D2H_solo_p95_ms": 0.003859199956059456,
    "sparse1280_H2D_solo_p95_ms": 0.004307200014591217,
    "full_dense_p_standard_verifier_solo_p95_ms": 0.014028799533843995,
    "dense_q_expand_solo_p95_ms": 0.0045056000351905824,
    "two_serialized_framed_replies_40gbps_ms": 0.0005664
  },
  "known_proxy_sum_ms": 0.18281280376865866,
  "additional_unmeasured_ms": null,
  "unknown_components": [
    "extra Markov materialization and duplicate greedy selector work",
    "eager graph/CPU launch gaps in sampled full K2 path",
    "full-vocabulary worker peer copies and completion waits",
    "CPU CRC/q validation/proxy queue and registered pool overhead",
    "full dense-q slot index-copy/TP synchronization",
    "GB10 H2D/expansion/rejection differences",
    "policy-induced future occupancy and150K acceptance"
  ],
  "fixed5_replay_sensitivities": {
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      "break_even_total_added_ms_CI_lower": 2.7271286961559005,
      "remaining_unmeasured_budget_ms_CI_lower": 2.544315892387242,
      "true_net_rate_change": null,
      "sensitivity": [
        {
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        {
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        },
        {
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          "conditional_pct_change": 4.344871680388884
        },
        {
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        },
        {
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          "conditional_tps": 64.48172149622546,
          "conditional_pct_change": 0.27389445641894383
        }
      ]
    },
    "family:chronology": {
      "retained_greedy": 3.1334164588528677,
      "retained_sampled": 3.3695267294869105,
      "archived_price_ms_not_live_mean": 48.08,
      "break_even_total_added_ms": 3.622940634019893,
      "break_even_total_added_ms_CI_lower": 2.5036243177279935,
      "remaining_unmeasured_budget_ms_CI_lower": 2.320811513959335,
      "true_net_rate_change": null,
      "sensitivity": [
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          "conditional_pct_change": 7.127905794132672
        },
        {
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          "conditional_tps": 69.67185186599282,
          "conditional_pct_change": 6.90639695379951
        },
        {
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          "conditional_tps": 69.10033559890326,
          "conditional_pct_change": 6.029446746812783
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 1.0,
          "conditional_tps": 68.39899180968283,
          "conditional_pct_change": 4.953285635497773
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 2.0,
          "conditional_tps": 67.03816482857614,
          "conditional_pct_change": 2.8651954594615336
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 3.0,
          "conditional_tps": 65.73043001727746,
          "conditional_pct_change": 0.8585713623168179
        }
      ]
    },
    "family:motion_outline": {
      "retained_greedy": 3.055066079295154,
      "retained_sampled": 3.2489749100093954,
      "archived_price_ms_not_live_mean": 48.08,
      "break_even_total_added_ms": 3.0516971936959547,
      "break_even_total_added_ms_CI_lower": 2.552472830065053,
      "remaining_unmeasured_budget_ms_CI_lower": 2.3696600262963945,
      "true_net_rate_change": null,
      "sensitivity": [
        {
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          "conditional_tps": 67.31839114349539,
          "conditional_pct_change": 5.944295873495564
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.1,
          "conditional_tps": 67.17919661108338,
          "conditional_pct_change": 5.725234388582834
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.5,
          "conditional_tps": 66.62812752586531,
          "conditional_pct_change": 4.857973225334988
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 1.0,
          "conditional_tps": 65.95187576785801,
          "conditional_pct_change": 3.793702152923606
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 2.0,
          "conditional_tps": 64.63973519933589,
          "conditional_pct_change": 1.7286823825787723
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 3.0,
          "conditional_tps": 63.37878731793943,
          "conditional_pct_change": -0.2557713923631133
        }
      ]
    },
    "context:16-32K": {
      "retained_greedy": 3.2238532110091747,
      "retained_sampled": 3.3763755332215233,
      "archived_price_ms_not_live_mean": 48.08,
      "break_even_total_added_ms": 2.274692044577973,
      "break_even_total_added_ms_CI_lower": 1.5484899964050594,
      "remaining_unmeasured_budget_ms_CI_lower": 1.3656771926364006,
      "true_net_rate_change": null,
      "sensitivity": [
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.0,
          "conditional_tps": 69.95811758733373,
          "conditional_pct_change": 4.334350029109735
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.1,
          "conditional_tps": 69.81346488098436,
          "conditional_pct_change": 4.118617436275551
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.5,
          "conditional_tps": 69.24078696626333,
          "conditional_pct_change": 3.2645353072952465
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 1.0,
          "conditional_tps": 68.53801764570024,
          "conditional_pct_change": 2.2164370620871177
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 2.0,
          "conditional_tps": 67.17442468656203,
          "conditional_pct_change": 0.18279765035837947
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 3.0,
          "conditional_tps": 65.86403181085889,
          "conditional_pct_change": -1.7715000592474772
        }
      ]
    },
    "context:8-16K": {
      "retained_greedy": 3.0780559646539025,
      "retained_sampled": 3.3196853100138957,
      "archived_price_ms_not_live_mean": 48.08,
      "break_even_total_added_ms": 3.7743104928291156,
      "break_even_total_added_ms_CI_lower": 2.837580127346125,
      "remaining_unmeasured_budget_ms_CI_lower": 2.6547673235774667,
      "true_net_rate_change": null,
      "sensitivity": [
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.0,
          "conditional_tps": 68.78350260088186,
          "conditional_pct_change": 7.4415424224507865
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.1,
          "conditional_tps": 68.6412786510881,
          "conditional_pct_change": 7.219385074286633
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.5,
          "conditional_tps": 68.07821614747647,
          "conditional_pct_change": 6.339867434434643
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 1.0,
          "conditional_tps": 67.38724650655628,
          "conditional_pct_change": 5.260555663728161
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 2.0,
          "conditional_tps": 66.04654862779563,
          "conditional_pct_change": 3.166352220027613
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 3.0,
          "conditional_tps": 64.75815758923483,
          "conditional_pct_change": 1.153853362133428
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      ]
    },
    "context:<8K": {
      "retained_greedy": 2.923809523809524,
      "retained_sampled": 3.182490083411704,
      "archived_price_ms_not_live_mean": 48.08,
      "break_even_total_added_ms": 4.253820642005351,
      "break_even_total_added_ms_CI_lower": 2.6634884659468425,
      "remaining_unmeasured_budget_ms_CI_lower": 2.480675662178184,
      "true_net_rate_change": null,
      "sensitivity": [
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          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.0,
          "conditional_tps": 65.94083308719205,
          "conditional_pct_change": 8.435082005661343
        },
        {
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          "conditional_pct_change": 8.210870311346463
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          "conditional_pct_change": 6.233927101299752
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        {
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          "conditional_tps": 63.31699134778792,
          "conditional_pct_change": 4.120358019600157
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        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 3.0,
          "conditional_tps": 62.08184665156998,
          "conditional_pct_change": 2.089249067031229
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      ]
    },
    "context:>=32K": {
      "retained_greedy": 3.212121212121212,
      "retained_sampled": 3.3574671090750323,
      "archived_price_ms_not_live_mean": 48.08,
      "break_even_total_added_ms": 2.175581263611411,
      "break_even_total_added_ms_CI_lower": null,
      "remaining_unmeasured_budget_ms_CI_lower": null,
      "true_net_rate_change": null,
      "sensitivity": [
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          "conditional_tps": 69.56633718648203,
          "conditional_pct_change": 4.12899361656589
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          "conditional_pct_change": 3.913685640085962
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          "conditional_pct_change": 2.0152492384007736
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          "conditional_tps": 66.79823356052395,
          "conditional_pct_change": -0.014387456160647183
        },
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          "conditional_tps": 65.49517916481172,
          "conditional_pct_change": -1.9648386131539075
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      ]
    }
  },
  "historical_adaptive_sensitivities": [
    {
      "cell": "short-B1-C2",
      "historical_adaptive_baseline_tps": 53.55715427657873,
      "acceptance_proxy": "context:<8K",
      "measured_acceptance_at150k": "different fixed-depth replay population",
      "extra_assumption": "transplant relative fixed5 token-count gain to adaptive window; 150K extrapolates pooled <=47K anchors",
      "expected_live_tps": null,
      "sensitivity": [
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.0,
          "conditional_tps": 58.01297197094225,
          "conditional_pct_change": 8.319743187535478
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.5,
          "conditional_tps": 57.253894482079396,
          "conditional_pct_change": 6.902420891166172
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 1.0,
          "conditional_tps": 56.51442490682154,
          "conditional_pct_change": 5.5217097887070965
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 2.0,
          "conditional_tps": 55.091347040590456,
          "conditional_pct_change": 2.8645897728039937
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 3.0,
          "conditional_tps": 53.73817728280131,
          "conditional_pct_change": 0.33799967281260557
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "cell": "32k-B1-C2",
      "historical_adaptive_baseline_tps": 62.64150943396226,
      "acceptance_proxy": "context:16-32K",
      "measured_acceptance_at150k": "different fixed-depth replay population",
      "extra_assumption": "transplant relative fixed5 token-count gain to adaptive window; 150K extrapolates pooled <=47K anchors",
      "expected_live_tps": null,
      "sensitivity": [
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.0,
          "conditional_tps": 65.3047738904776,
          "conditional_pct_change": 4.251596873352814
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.5,
          "conditional_tps": 64.49720239888462,
          "conditional_pct_change": 2.96240141990618
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 1.0,
          "conditional_tps": 63.70936010341274,
          "conditional_pct_change": 1.704701369905881
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 2.0,
          "conditional_tps": 62.19004012834808,
          "conditional_pct_change": -0.7207190722154144
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 3.0,
          "conditional_tps": 60.74149678662487,
          "conditional_pct_change": -3.0331527201470365
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "cell": "150k-B1-C2",
      "historical_adaptive_baseline_tps": 55.23329129886507,
      "acceptance_proxy": "all",
      "measured_acceptance_at150k": null,
      "extra_assumption": "transplant relative fixed5 token-count gain to adaptive window; 150K extrapolates pooled <=47K anchors",
      "expected_live_tps": null,
      "sensitivity": [
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.0,
          "conditional_tps": 58.77992063838422,
          "conditional_pct_change": 6.42118051652667
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 0.5,
          "conditional_tps": 58.051234532057265,
          "conditional_pct_change": 5.101892657354812
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 1.0,
          "conditional_tps": 57.34039402725252,
          "conditional_pct_change": 3.8149143004823083
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 2.0,
          "conditional_tps": 55.96969026185602,
          "conditional_pct_change": 1.3332520037713014
        },
        {
          "assumed_unmeasured_ms": 3.0,
          "conditional_tps": 54.662989006482675,
          "conditional_pct_change": -1.0325336024183507
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "No unknown component is assigned zero in the decision. u=0 rows are illustrative only; no speedup is claimed."
}