"""generator_v5 — king-lineage full-context mixture + a first-class SARIMA family. Fork of the reigning ``cascade-fullctx-spectral-v12`` prior (fixed 4096 length, batched SciPy/FFT families, prefetch producer thread, measurement artifacts). The competitive gap versus our older SARIMA-only generator was *architecture* (full context + many specialized families + throughput), not that SARIMA is useless. This file keeps the king's mixture-of-priors stack and a genuine **SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)_s** family (~12% weight), then upgrades *other* families from heat#1: Davies–Harte long memory, weekly_demand, widened seasonal bank with coupled calendars. SARIMA itself is left as our differentiator. Design constraints this file respects (all from the contract in ``cascade.interface``): * **Determinism is load-bearing.** Every value is drawn from one ``np.random.default_rng(seed)`` in a fixed draw order, so two runs at the same seed produce byte-identical corpora — the property ``cascade verify`` audits by building the corpus twice and comparing digests. * **Code-only.** No shipped weights, no network, no clock, no un-seeded RNG. Imports stay on the dependency allowlist (NumPy/SciPy only) and clear of the static-guard blocklist. * **Bounded + finite.** Each series is 1-D ``(L,)`` float64, length in ``[min_length, max_length]``, finite (no NaN/inf). ``_sanitize`` is the last gate so a numerically unlucky draw can never poison a training run. Everything is **vectorised per family** (a batched time-axis recurrence, never a per-series Python loop over time). Compared with custom-fullctx-v4, the slow random-Fourier GP is replaced by FFT spectral sampling, a long-memory spectral family is added, and larger chunks amortise dispatch while staying far below the sandbox memory limit. """ from __future__ import annotations import json from collections.abc import Iterator from functools import lru_cache, partial from pathlib import Path from queue import Full, Queue from threading import Event, Thread import numpy as np from scipy.signal import lfilter from cascade.interface import DataGenerator # Series generated per vectorised batch. Bounds peak memory to O(_CHUNK · max_len) # so streaming feed modes (which request millions of series and stop early) never # materialise the full corpus. Prefetching holds at most two completed chunks # (current + queued) while the producer may build the next. The base block is # 2048 × 4096 × 8 B = 64 MiB per base family block, plus temporary arrays. # This remains comfortably below the 4 GiB sandbox cap. On the reference local # A100 environment, 2048 rows generated ~6% more points/s than 1024 while 4096 # regressed slightly, so 2048 is the measured throughput sweet spot. _CHUNK = 2048 # Multi-cadence seasonal bank (widened with 15/60/240 from heat#1 pool cues). _SEASONAL_PERIODS = np.array( [4, 7, 12, 15, 24, 30, 48, 52, 60, 90, 96, 144, 168, 183, 240, 288, 336, 365, 672, 730], dtype=np.float64, ) _SEASONAL_PROBS = np.array( [0.02, 0.13, 0.03, 0.03, 0.10, 0.03, 0.07, 0.02, 0.06, 0.02, 0.10, 0.06, 0.07, 0.02, 0.06, 0.06, 0.03, 0.04, 0.03, 0.02], dtype=np.float64, ) _SEASONAL_PROBS /= _SEASONAL_PROBS.sum() # Coupled calendar periods teach short/long cadence interactions explicitly. _SEASONAL_PAIRS = np.array( [[15, 60], [60, 240], [24, 168], [48, 336], [96, 672], [7, 365], [12, 52]], dtype=np.float64, ) # ── family mixture ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── # Names are the process families the corpus mixes over; the default weights are # a deliberate spread (no single family dominates). Override with # ``"family_weights": {"chaotic": 0.2, ...}`` in config.json to tune the prior # without touching code — unspecified families keep their default weight. _FAMILIES: tuple[str, ...] = ( "trend_seasonal_ar", # level + slope + multi-seasonal + AR(1) noise (rich reference) "regime_shift", # piecewise level/variance regimes with structural breaks "multiplicative", # positive level × seasonal factor × multiplicative noise "ar2", # AR(2), stationarity-guaranteed, incl. near-unit-root "sarima", # full SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)_s — kept as our differentiator "integrated", # I(1)/I(2) random walks with drift "threshold_ar", # SETAR — regime-switching nonlinear recurrence "chaotic", # bounded chaotic maps (logistic / sine) "spectral_gp", # smooth GP-like paths via batched FFT sampling "long_memory", # Davies–Harte fGn / fBm + multiscale spectral minority "ou_stochastic_vol", # mean-reverting regimes + clustered/heavy-tailed volatility "physical_sensors", # bounded/skewed/smooth physical measurement archetypes "seasonal_counts", # seasonal Poisson/NB web and demand counts with bursts "intermittent", # zero-inflated / intermittent demand "pulse_outlier", # sharp/decaying events, outliers, and true flat runs "weekly_demand", # period-7 demand / promotions (sales-domain prior) ) # SARIMA stays ~12%. Other-family upgrades fund weekly_demand + slightly lift # counts/intermittent; mass comes from ar2/integrated/threshold/chaotic. _DEFAULT_WEIGHTS: dict[str, float] = { "trend_seasonal_ar": 0.10, "regime_shift": 0.10, "multiplicative": 0.06, "ar2": 0.10, "sarima": 0.12, "integrated": 0.09, "threshold_ar": 0.06, "chaotic": 0.02, "spectral_gp": 0.055, "long_memory": 0.06, "ou_stochastic_vol": 0.085, "physical_sensors": 0.02, "seasonal_counts": 0.025, "intermittent": 0.02, "pulse_outlier": 0.015, "weekly_demand": 0.08, } class Generator(DataGenerator): """A mixture-of-priors generator. Submit as ``generator.Generator``.""" def __init__(self, config_dir: str, *, seed: int) -> None: cfg_path = Path(config_dir) / "config.json" cfg = json.loads(cfg_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8")) if cfg_path.is_file() else {} self._cfg = cfg self._seed = int(seed) self._min_len = int(cfg.get("min_length", 64)) self._max_len = int(cfg.get("max_length", 4096)) # = [training] context_length (train on full context) if self._min_len < 1 or self._max_len < self._min_len: raise ValueError(f"invalid length band [{self._min_len}, {self._max_len}]") weights = dict(_DEFAULT_WEIGHTS) for k, v in dict(cfg.get("family_weights", {})).items(): if k in weights: weights[k] = float(v) w = np.asarray([weights[f] for f in _FAMILIES], dtype=np.float64) if not np.all(np.isfinite(w)) or w.min() < 0 or w.sum() <= 0: raise ValueError("family_weights must be finite, non-negative, and not all zero") self._weights = w / w.sum() # v3.9 length-NORMALIZED bimodal trend knobs (trend excursion is length-invariant; # real trend-strength is ~0.02 and length-invariant, but v2's slope*t grows with L). self._tr_hi_frac = float(cfg.get("tr_hi_frac", 0.25)) self._tr_exc_lo = float(cfg.get("tr_exc_lo", 0.4)) self._tr_exc_hi = float(cfg.get("tr_exc_hi", 3.0)) self._gr_exc_lo = float(cfg.get("gr_exc_lo", 0.3)) self._gr_exc_hi = float(cfg.get("gr_exc_hi", 2.0)) self._sa_clean_frac = float(cfg.get("sa_clean_frac", 0.4)) self._sa_clean_lo = float(cfg.get("sa_clean_lo", 0.02)) self._sa_clean_hi = float(cfg.get("sa_clean_hi", 0.12)) @property def name(self) -> str: return str(self._cfg.get("name", "cascade-fullctx-spectral-v12")) def generate(self, n_series: int) -> Iterator[np.ndarray]: # Lazy, chunked generation. This is REQUIRED for the streaming feed # modes (chain.toml ``corpus_mode = "stream_cpu"``): the trainer calls # ``generate(n_upper)`` with ``n_upper = token_budget // min_length + 2`` # — often millions — and stops pulling once the token budget is hit # (see cascade/trainer/stream.py). Materialising all ``n_series`` up # front would OOM before the first yield. Generating one CHUNK at a time # keeps memory at O(CHUNK) and stops early when the consumer stops, # while a fixed draw order keeps the whole sequence seed-deterministic. if n_series <= 0: return rng = np.random.default_rng(self._seed) max_len = self._max_len # Bind the trend-excursion knobs as explicit builder arguments (no shared # module state) so the corpus is a pure function of (seed, config). builders = ( partial(_trend_seasonal_ar, hi_frac=self._tr_hi_frac, exc_lo=self._tr_exc_lo, exc_hi=self._tr_exc_hi, clean_frac=self._sa_clean_frac, clean_lo=self._sa_clean_lo, clean_hi=self._sa_clean_hi), _regime_shift, partial(_multiplicative, hi_frac=self._tr_hi_frac, exc_lo=self._gr_exc_lo, exc_hi=self._gr_exc_hi), _ar2, _sarima, _integrated, _threshold_ar, _chaotic, _spectral_gp, _long_memory, _ou_stochastic_vol, _physical_sensors, _seasonal_counts, _intermittent, _pulse_outlier, _weekly_demand, ) # Generate one chunk ahead on a CPU thread while the consumer trains on # the current chunk. The isolation benchmark measured 21.9% of training # wall blocked in next(); a one-slot queue overlaps NumPy/SciPy work # (which releases the GIL) without changing the RNG owner or draw order. queue: Queue[object] = Queue(maxsize=1) stop = Event() done = object() def put(item: object) -> bool: while not stop.is_set(): try: queue.put(item, timeout=0.1) return True except Full: continue return False def produce() -> None: try: produced = 0 while produced < n_series and not stop.is_set(): # Always draw a FULL _CHUNK (yielding only what's still # needed), so series i remains a pure function of (seed, i). lengths = rng.integers( self._min_len, max_len + 1, size=_CHUNK ) fam_ids = rng.choice( len(_FAMILIES), size=_CHUNK, p=self._weights ) chunk: list[np.ndarray | None] = [None] * _CHUNK for fam in range(len(_FAMILIES)): idx = np.nonzero(fam_ids == fam)[0] if idx.size == 0: continue block = builders[fam](rng, int(idx.size), max_len) # Preserve positivity for count/magnitude families. # Indices: multiplicative=2, physical=11, counts=12, # intermittent=13, weekly_demand=15. preserve_nonnegative = fam in (2, 11, 12, 13, 15) block = _sanitize( _measurement_artifacts( rng, block, preserve_nonnegative=preserve_nonnegative, ) ) for row, series_i in enumerate(idx): length = int(lengths[series_i]) chunk[series_i] = np.ascontiguousarray( block[row, :length], dtype=np.float64 ) take = min(_CHUNK, n_series - produced) if not put((chunk, take)): return produced += take except BaseException as exc: # propagate producer failures put(exc) finally: put(done) producer = Thread(target=produce, name="cascade-generator", daemon=True) producer.start() try: while True: item = queue.get() if item is done: break if isinstance(item, BaseException): raise item chunk, take = item for arr in chunk[:take]: # fam_ids partitions [0, _CHUNK); fail loud if that changes. if arr is None: # pragma: no cover - defensive raise RuntimeError("internal: unfilled series slot") yield arr finally: stop.set() producer.join(timeout=1.0) # ── shared vectorised primitives ──────────────────────────────────────────── def _ar1_batch(innov: np.ndarray, phi: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: """AR(1) filter applied along the time axis of a (n, L) innovation block. ``x[:, t] = phi * x[:, t-1] + innov[:, t]``. The loop is over time (L iterations, vectorised across the batch), never over the n series. """ n, L = innov.shape x = np.empty((n, L), dtype=np.float64) p = phi.reshape(n) for i in range(n): x[i] = lfilter([1.0], [1.0, -float(p[i])], innov[i]) return x def _ar2_batch(innov: np.ndarray, a1: np.ndarray, a2: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: """AR(2) filter: ``x_t = a1 x_{t-1} + a2 x_{t-2} + e_t`` (batched over n).""" n, L = innov.shape x = np.empty((n, L), dtype=np.float64) for i in range(n): x[i] = lfilter( [1.0], [1.0, -float(a1[i]), -float(a2[i])], innov[i] ) return x @lru_cache(maxsize=4) def _seasonal_basis(L: int) -> tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray]: """Cached unit sine/cosine waves for the fixed cadence bank.""" angle = ( 2.0 * np.pi * np.arange(L, dtype=np.float64)[None, :] / _SEASONAL_PERIODS[:, None] ) return np.sin(angle), np.cos(angle) def _seasonal(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int, k_max: int = 3) -> np.ndarray: """Sum of 1..k_max stationary or slowly modulated seasonal components.""" t = np.arange(L, dtype=np.float64)[None, :] sin_basis, cos_basis = _seasonal_basis(L) k = rng.integers(1, k_max + 1, size=n) pair = _SEASONAL_PAIRS[rng.integers(0, len(_SEASONAL_PAIRS), size=n)] use_pair = rng.random(n) < 0.35 out = np.zeros((n, L), dtype=np.float64) for j in range(k_max): active = np.nonzero(k > j)[0] per = rng.choice(_SEASONAL_PERIODS, size=n, p=_SEASONAL_PROBS) if j < 2: per = np.where(use_pair, pair[:, j], per) per = per[:, None] amp = rng.uniform(0.2, 2.0, size=n)[:, None] phase = rng.uniform(0.0, 2.0 * np.pi, size=n)[:, None] # Draw parameters for every row to preserve the fixed RNG sequence, but # evaluate only active rows. Stationary components reuse the cadence # bank via sin(a+b), avoiding a fresh transcendental pass over n×L. basis_idx = np.searchsorted(_SEASONAL_PERIODS, per[active, 0]) component = amp[active] * ( sin_basis[basis_idx] * np.cos(phase[active]) + cos_basis[basis_idx] * np.sin(phase[active]) ) # Real seasonal strength and timing drift. TempoPFN's strongest # non-SDE ablation was its complex-seasonality prior, so a minority of # components receive slow amplitude and phase modulation while the # stationary baseline remains well represented. modulated = np.nonzero((k > j) & (rng.random(n) < 0.35))[0] if modulated.size: # Map global row indices into the active component block. modulated_local = np.searchsorted(active, modulated) modulated_arg = ( 2.0 * np.pi * t / per[modulated] + phase[modulated] ) m_per = np.clip( per[modulated] * rng.uniform( 4.0, 12.0, size=(modulated.size, 1) ), 32.0, 2.0 * L, ) m_phase = rng.uniform( 0.0, 2.0 * np.pi, size=(modulated.size, 1) ) slow = np.sin(2.0 * np.pi * t / m_per + m_phase) amp_mod = 1.0 + rng.uniform( 0.05, 0.45, size=(modulated.size, 1) ) * slow phase_mod = rng.uniform( 0.05, 0.75, size=(modulated.size, 1) ) * np.sin(2.0 * np.pi * t / (1.7 * m_per) - m_phase) component[modulated_local] = ( amp[modulated] * amp_mod * np.sin(modulated_arg + phase_mod) ) out[active] += component return out def _sparse_jumps(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int, rate: float, scale) -> np.ndarray: """A (n, L) block of mostly-zero values with occasional N(0, scale) jumps. ``cumsum`` over this yields a piecewise-constant level; ``exp(cumsum)`` of a scaled version yields a piecewise-constant positive multiplier. """ mask = rng.random((n, L)) < rate mask[:, 0] = False rows, cols = np.nonzero(mask) jumps = np.zeros((n, L), dtype=np.float64) if rows.size == 0: return jumps # Rates are O(1/L), so draw magnitudes only for actual events rather than # allocating and filling a second dense n×L normal array. s = np.asarray(scale, dtype=np.float64) event_scale = s if s.ndim == 0 else s.reshape(n)[rows] jumps[rows, cols] = rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=rows.size) * event_scale return jumps def _measurement_artifacts( rng: np.random.Generator, block: np.ndarray, *, preserve_nonnegative: bool, ) -> np.ndarray: """Apply sparse, cheap real-measurement effects to a generated block. TempoPFN reports a 5.4% aggregate CRPS gain from its complete augmentation pipeline, but does not isolate optimal probabilities for Toto2. These rates are deliberately conservative: most rows remain untouched, and a selected row receives only plausible reversal/sign, censoring, quantization, or sample-and-hold behavior. """ original = np.asarray(block, dtype=np.float64) out = original.copy() n, L = out.shape reverse = rng.random(n) < 0.06 out[reverse] = out[reverse, ::-1] if not preserve_nonnegative: invert = rng.random(n) < 0.04 out[invert] *= -1.0 # Sensor saturation / floor effects. Existing sample values are used as # thresholds, avoiding artificial scales and preserving integer counts. for row in np.nonzero(rng.random(n) < 0.06)[0]: q = float(rng.uniform(0.03, 0.18)) if rng.random() < 0.5: out[row] = np.minimum(out[row], np.quantile(out[row], 1.0 - q)) else: out[row] = np.maximum(out[row], np.quantile(out[row], q)) quantized = np.nonzero(rng.random(n) < 0.07)[0] if quantized.size: x = out[quantized] lo = x.min(axis=1, keepdims=True) hi = x.max(axis=1, keepdims=True) levels = rng.integers(16, 257, size=(quantized.size, 1)) step = (hi - lo) / np.maximum(levels - 1, 1) safe_step = np.where(step < 1e-12, 1.0, step) out[quantized] = lo + np.rint((x - lo) / safe_step) * safe_step # Zero-order-hold resampling approximates telemetry gathered at a lower # cadence and forwarded at the nominal cadence. held = np.nonzero(rng.random(n) < 0.04)[0] if held.size: factors = rng.choice([2, 4, 8], size=held.size, p=[0.55, 0.30, 0.15]) for factor in (2, 4, 8): rows = held[factors == factor] if rows.size: out[rows] = np.repeat( out[rows, ::factor], factor, axis=1 )[:, :L] # Heavy zero inflation plus upper censoring can otherwise collapse a sparse # row to its baseline. Such a row carries no forecasting signal. degenerate = out.std(axis=1) < 1e-9 out[degenerate] = original[degenerate] return out # ── family builders: each returns a (n, L) float64 block ──────────────────── def _trend_seasonal_ar(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int, *, hi_frac: float = 0.25, exc_lo: float = 0.4, exc_hi: float = 3.0, clean_frac: float = 0.4, clean_lo: float = 0.02, clean_hi: float = 0.12) -> np.ndarray: t = np.arange(L, dtype=np.float64)[None, :] level = rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, 1)) # v3: bimodal trend. The total trend EXCURSION over the series is drawn directly # (0..exc across t/(L-1)), so the trend sits ~16x below v2's slope*t — v2's linear # trend was a measured ~16x too strong vs real data at production lengths. _hi = rng.random((n, 1)) < hi_frac exc = np.where(_hi, rng.normal(0.0, exc_hi, size=(n, 1)), rng.normal(0.0, exc_lo, size=(n, 1))) tn = t / max(L - 1, 1) series = level + exc * tn + _seasonal(rng, n, L) phi = rng.uniform(0.0, 0.85, size=n) clean = rng.random((n, 1)) < clean_frac sigma = np.where( clean, rng.uniform(clean_lo, clean_hi, size=(n, 1)), rng.uniform(0.1, 0.6, size=(n, 1)), ) innov = rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, L)) * sigma return series + _ar1_batch(innov, phi) def _regime_shift(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: # Piecewise-constant level via cumsum of sparse jumps, plus a piecewise # variance regime (occasional volatility multiplier), plus mild seasonality. level = np.cumsum(_sparse_jumps(rng, n, L, rate=3.0 / L, scale=2.0), axis=1) log_vol = np.cumsum(_sparse_jumps(rng, n, L, rate=3.0 / L, scale=0.5), axis=1) vol = np.exp(np.clip(log_vol, -3.0, 3.0)) * rng.uniform(0.1, 0.5, size=(n, 1)) noise = rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, L)) * vol seas = _seasonal(rng, n, L, k_max=2) * rng.uniform(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, 1)) # Piecewise-affine drift complements abrupt level jumps. Sparse slope # changes create ramps and recoveries without the explosive scale of an I(2) # process, covering TempoPFN's high-impact Step/Sawtooth structures. slope = rng.normal(0.0, 1.0 / L, size=(n, 1)) + np.cumsum( _sparse_jumps(rng, n, L, rate=2.0 / L, scale=4.0 / L), axis=1 ) piecewise_trend = np.cumsum(slope, axis=1) return level + piecewise_trend + seas + noise def _multiplicative(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int, *, hi_frac: float = 0.25, exc_lo: float = 0.3, exc_hi: float = 2.0) -> np.ndarray: t = np.arange(L, dtype=np.float64)[None, :] # v3: bimodal log-growth excursion (drawn directly), same rationale as the linear trend. _hg = rng.random((n, 1)) < hi_frac gexc = np.where(_hg, rng.normal(0.0, exc_hi, size=(n, 1)), rng.normal(0.0, exc_lo, size=(n, 1))) tn = t / max(L - 1, 1) base_level = np.exp(gexc * tn + rng.normal(0.0, 0.3, size=(n, 1))) # positive, drifting amp = rng.uniform(0.1, 0.6, size=(n, 1)) seasonal_shape = _seasonal(rng, n, L, k_max=1) seasonal_sd = seasonal_shape.std(axis=1, keepdims=True) seasonal_shape /= np.where(seasonal_sd < 1e-12, 1.0, seasonal_sd) seas = 1.0 + amp * seasonal_shape noise = 1.0 + rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, L)) * rng.uniform(0.02, 0.15, size=(n, 1)) scale = rng.uniform(1.0, 50.0, size=(n, 1)) return scale * base_level * np.clip(seas, 0.05, None) * np.clip(noise, 0.05, None) def _ar2(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: # Draw partial autocorrelations in (-1, 1) and map to AR(2) coeffs via # Levinson-Durbin, which guarantees stationarity. Bias p1 high for # persistent (sometimes near-unit-root) series. p1 = rng.uniform(0.3, 0.98, size=n) p2 = rng.uniform(-0.6, 0.6, size=n) a2 = p2 a1 = p1 * (1.0 - p2) sigma = rng.uniform(0.2, 0.8, size=(n, 1)) innov = rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, L)) * sigma x = _ar2_batch(innov, a1, a2) drift = rng.normal(0.0, 0.005, size=(n, 1)) * np.arange(L, dtype=np.float64)[None, :] return x + drift def _reflection_poly(kappa: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: """PACF / reflection coeffs in (-1,1) → lag polynomial via Levinson-Durbin.""" order = int(kappa.size) if order <= 0: return np.array([1.0], dtype=np.float64) phi = np.zeros(order, dtype=np.float64) for m in range(order): k = float(kappa[m]) prev = phi[:m].copy() phi[m] = k if m > 0: phi[:m] = prev - k * prev[::-1] return np.concatenate(([1.0], -phi)) def _expand_seasonal_poly(poly: np.ndarray, period: int) -> np.ndarray: """Lift a lag polynomial in L to one in L**period.""" if poly.size <= 1 or period <= 1: return poly.copy() out = np.zeros((poly.size - 1) * period + 1, dtype=np.float64) out[0] = poly[0] for i in range(1, poly.size): out[i * period] = poly[i] return out def _sarima(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: """Batched SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)_s — the differentiator vs the king lineage. AR/MA coeffs (regular + seasonal) are drawn as reflection coefficients and mapped by Levinson-Durbin so every ARMA recursion is stable. Seasonal periods come from the shared cadence bank (only when ≥3 cycles fit). Optional Student-t innovations and AR(1) log-variance give fat tails / vol clustering without leaving the SciPy ``lfilter`` path. Loop is over the *batch* (n), never over time — same cost model as ``_ar1_batch`` / ``_ar2_batch``. """ periods = _SEASONAL_PERIODS.astype(np.int64) out = np.empty((n, L), dtype=np.float64) for i in range(n): p = int(rng.integers(0, 4)) q = int(rng.integers(0, 4)) d = int(rng.choice([0, 1, 2], p=[0.50, 0.38, 0.12])) # Seasonal terms when the series is long enough for ≥3 cycles. cand = periods[periods * 3 <= L] if cand.size > 0 and rng.random() < 0.55: s = int(rng.choice(cand)) P = int(rng.integers(0, 3)) Q = int(rng.integers(0, 3)) D = int(rng.choice([0, 1], p=[0.7, 0.3])) else: s = P = Q = D = 0 if p == q == P == Q == d == D == 0: p = 1 if rng.random() < 0.5 else 0 q = 0 if p else 1 ar = _reflection_poly(rng.uniform(-0.95, 0.95, size=p)) ma = _reflection_poly(rng.uniform(-0.9, 0.9, size=q)) if s > 1: if P > 0: ar = np.convolve(ar, _expand_seasonal_poly( _reflection_poly(rng.uniform(-0.95, 0.95, size=P)), s)) if Q > 0: ma = np.convolve(ma, _expand_seasonal_poly( _reflection_poly(rng.uniform(-0.9, 0.9, size=Q)), s)) memory = max(ar.size, ma.size, s * max(P, D, 1)) burn = int(min(1024, max(64, 4 * memory))) m = L + burn if rng.random() < 0.35: df = float(rng.uniform(3.0, 12.0)) eps = rng.standard_t(df, size=m) else: eps = rng.standard_normal(m) eps *= float(rng.uniform(0.3, 2.0)) if rng.random() < 0.40: phi_v = float(rng.uniform(0.9, 0.995)) v_innov = rng.normal(0.0, float(rng.uniform(0.1, 0.4)), size=m) log_var = lfilter([1.0], [1.0, -phi_v], v_innov) log_var -= log_var.mean() eps = eps * np.exp(0.5 * np.clip(log_var, -6.0, 6.0)) y = lfilter(ma, ar, eps)[burn:] for _ in range(d): y = np.cumsum(y - y.mean()) if s > 1 and D > 0: seas = np.zeros(s + 1, dtype=np.float64) seas[0], seas[s] = 1.0, -1.0 for _ in range(D): y = lfilter([1.0], seas, y - y.mean()) # Match the scale of neighbouring families. sd = float(y.std()) if sd > 1e-12: y = y / sd * float(rng.uniform(0.3, 1.5)) out[i] = y[:L] return out def _integrated(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: order2 = rng.random(n) < 0.35 drift = rng.normal(0.0, 0.02, size=(n, 1)) sigma = rng.uniform(0.2, 1.0, size=(n, 1)) steps = rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, L)) * sigma + drift walk = np.cumsum(steps, axis=1) walk2 = np.cumsum(walk, axis=1) o2 = order2[:, None] # I(2) grows fast; damp it so it shares scale with the I(1) branch. return np.where(o2, walk2 / max(L, 1) ** 0.5, walk) def _threshold_ar(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: # SETAR(2): coefficient flips with the sign of the previous value — a simple # nonlinear recurrence that produces asymmetric, regime-switching dynamics. phi_hi = rng.uniform(0.3, 0.9, size=n) phi_lo = rng.uniform(-0.9, 0.3, size=n) const_hi = rng.normal(0.0, 0.3, size=n) const_lo = rng.normal(0.0, 0.3, size=n) sigma = rng.uniform(0.2, 0.7, size=(n, 1)) innov = rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, L)) * sigma x = np.empty((n, L), dtype=np.float64) x[:, 0] = innov[:, 0] for t in range(1, L): prev = x[:, t - 1] hi = prev >= 0.0 phi = np.where(hi, phi_hi, phi_lo) const = np.where(hi, const_hi, const_lo) x[:, t] = np.clip(const + phi * prev + innov[:, t], -1e6, 1e6) return x def _chaotic(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: # Bounded chaotic maps: logistic x_{t+1}=r x(1-x) with r∈[3.6,4.0], and the # sine map r sin(pi x). Both stay in [0,1]; standardise afterwards. A random # observation length as a "sampling rate" adds variety across series. use_sine = rng.random(n) < 0.5 r_log = rng.uniform(3.6, 4.0, size=n) r_sin = rng.uniform(0.85, 1.0, size=n) x0 = rng.uniform(0.05, 0.95, size=n) x = np.empty((n, L), dtype=np.float64) cur = x0.copy() x[:, 0] = cur for t in range(1, L): nxt_log = r_log * cur * (1.0 - cur) nxt_sin = r_sin * np.sin(np.pi * cur) cur = np.where(use_sine, nxt_sin, nxt_log) cur = np.clip(cur, 0.0, 1.0) x[:, t] = cur return x def _spectral_gp(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: """Smooth stationary GP-like paths sampled in O(n L log L). An RBF kernel has a Gaussian spectral density. Drawing complex Fourier coefficients under that envelope and applying one batched inverse FFT preserves the useful smoothness/length-scale prior without the old 48-pass cosine loop. """ f = np.fft.rfftfreq(L)[None, :] lengthscale = np.exp(rng.uniform(np.log(8.0), np.log(256.0), size=(n, 1))) envelope = np.exp(-0.5 * (2.0 * np.pi * lengthscale * f) ** 2) z = rng.standard_normal((n, f.shape[1])) + 1j * rng.standard_normal((n, f.shape[1])) z[:, 0] = 0.0 x = np.fft.irfft(z * np.sqrt(envelope), n=L, axis=1) sd = x.std(axis=1, keepdims=True) return x / np.where(sd < 1e-12, 1.0, sd) def _prefix_mean_std( x: np.ndarray, *, calibration_points: int = 512 ) -> tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray]: """Location/scale from an early prefix only (no future leakage).""" prefix = x[:, : min(x.shape[1], calibration_points)] mean = prefix.mean(axis=1, keepdims=True) std = prefix.std(axis=1, keepdims=True) return mean, np.where(std < 1e-12, 1.0, std) def _prefix_standardize( x: np.ndarray, *, center: bool = True, calibration_points: int = 512 ) -> np.ndarray: mean, std = _prefix_mean_std(x, calibration_points=calibration_points) return (x - mean) / std if center else x / std def _davies_harte_fgn( rng: np.random.Generator, hurst: np.ndarray, L: int ) -> np.ndarray: """Exact fractional Gaussian noise via Davies–Harte circulant embedding.""" h = np.asarray(hurst, dtype=np.float64).reshape(-1, 1) n = h.shape[0] if n == 0: return np.empty((0, L), dtype=np.float64) k = np.arange(L, dtype=np.float64)[None, :] power = 2.0 * h covariance = 0.5 * ( (k + 1.0) ** power - 2.0 * k ** power + np.abs(k - 1.0) ** power ) circulant = np.concatenate( [covariance, np.zeros((n, 1)), covariance[:, 1:][:, ::-1]], axis=1 ) eigenvalues = np.maximum(np.fft.rfft(circulant, axis=1).real, 0.0) z = ( rng.standard_normal(eigenvalues.shape) + 1j * rng.standard_normal(eigenvalues.shape) ) / np.sqrt(2.0) z[:, 0] = rng.standard_normal(n) z[:, -1] = rng.standard_normal(n) return np.fft.irfft( z * np.sqrt(eigenvalues), n=2 * L, axis=1, norm="ortho", )[:, :L] def _long_memory(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: """Fractional paths: majority exact Davies–Harte fGn, minority multiscale FFT. Embed on 2L and keep the first L samples so the eval target is not glued to a circular wrap. Integrate a share of rows to fBm; prefix-standardise. """ embed_len = 2 * L f = np.fft.rfftfreq(embed_len) safe_f = np.maximum(f, 1.0 / embed_len)[None, :] hurst = rng.uniform(0.3, 0.85, size=(n, 1)) level_path = rng.random((n, 1)) < 0.40 beta = 2.0 * hurst - 1.0 amp = safe_f ** (-0.5 * beta) multiscale = rng.random((n, 1)) < 0.42 split_idx = rng.integers(8, max(9, f.size // 3), size=(n, 1)) split_f = np.maximum(split_idx / embed_len, 1.0 / embed_len) hurst_hi = rng.uniform(0.3, 0.8, size=(n, 1)) beta_hi = 2.0 * hurst_hi - 1.0 above = np.arange(f.size)[None, :] > split_idx amp_hi = ( split_f ** (-0.5 * beta) * (safe_f / split_f) ** (-0.5 * beta_hi) ) amp = np.where(multiscale & above, amp_hi, amp) amp[:, 0] = 0.0 z = rng.standard_normal((n, f.size)) + 1j * rng.standard_normal((n, f.size)) x = np.fft.irfft(z * amp, n=embed_len, axis=1)[:, :L] exact_rows = np.nonzero(rng.random(n) < 0.65)[0] if exact_rows.size: x[exact_rows] = _davies_harte_fgn(rng, hurst[exact_rows], L) if np.any(level_path): level_rows = np.nonzero(level_path.reshape(-1))[0] x[level_rows] = np.cumsum(x[level_rows], axis=1) x[level_rows] -= x[level_rows, :1] return _prefix_standardize(x) def _ou_stochastic_vol(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: """Regime-switching mean reversion with bounded stochastic volatility. This is a CPU-cheap discrete Euler/AR analogue of TempoPFN's highest-impact OU SDE prior. Regime paths, seasonal means, volatility envelopes, and heavy-tail masks are sampled in whole blocks; only the state recurrence scans time, vectorised across all rows. """ # Toggle between a fast/quiet and a slow/volatile regime. A cumulative XOR # builds persistent Markov-like paths without a per-row Python loop. switch_rate = np.exp(rng.uniform(np.log(0.001), np.log(0.15), size=(n, 1))) switches = rng.random((n, L)) < switch_rate switches[:, 0] = rng.random(n) < 0.5 regime = np.bitwise_and(np.cumsum(switches, axis=1), 1).astype(np.int8) # One mean-reversion speed per row lets SciPy execute the recurrence in # compiled code. Regime paths still switch equilibrium mean and volatility; # rows span both fast/quiet and slow/persistent reversion rates. slow = rng.random((n, 1)) < 0.5 phi = np.where( slow, rng.uniform(0.995, 0.9995, size=(n, 1)), rng.uniform(0.90, 0.99, size=(n, 1)), ) mu0 = rng.normal(-2.0, 1.0, size=(n, 1)) mu1 = rng.normal(2.0, 1.0, size=(n, 1)) mean = np.where(regime == 0, mu0, mu1) seasonal_on = rng.random((n, 1)) < 0.6 mean += seasonal_on * _seasonal(rng, n, L, k_max=3) \ * rng.uniform(0.5, 3.0, size=(n, 1)) sigma0 = rng.lognormal(np.log(0.3), 0.3, size=(n, 1)) sigma1 = rng.lognormal(np.log(1.5), 0.5, size=(n, 1)) base_sigma = np.where(regime == 0, sigma0, sigma1) log_vol = np.cumsum( _sparse_jumps(rng, n, L, rate=8.0 / L, scale=0.35), axis=1 ) log_vol -= log_vol.mean(axis=1, keepdims=True) vol = base_sigma * np.exp(np.clip(log_vol, -1.5, 1.5)) eps = rng.standard_normal((n, L)) heavy = np.nonzero(rng.random(n) < 0.35)[0] if heavy.size: # Replace only heavy-tailed rows; drawing Student-t noise for every row # previously discarded 65% of that relatively expensive work. eps[heavy] = ( rng.standard_t(4.0, size=(heavy.size, L)) / np.sqrt(2.0) ) shocks = rng.random((n, L)) < (3.0 / L) shock_rows, shock_cols = np.nonzero(shocks) # As with sparse jumps, draw shock magnitudes only at the O(n) events. eps[shock_rows, shock_cols] += rng.normal( 0.0, 5.0, size=shock_rows.size ) innovation_scale = np.sqrt(np.maximum(1.0 - phi * phi, 1e-6)) drive = (1.0 - phi) * mean + innovation_scale * vol * eps out = np.empty((n, L), dtype=np.float64) out[:, 0] = mean[:, 0] + vol[:, 0] * eps[:, 0] for i in range(n): p = float(phi[i, 0]) out[i, 1:] = lfilter( [1.0], [1.0, -p], drive[i, 1:], zi=[p * out[i, 0]] )[0] scale = np.exp(rng.uniform(np.log(0.1), np.log(50.0), size=(n, 1))) shift = rng.uniform(-100.0, 100.0, size=(n, 1)) return out * scale + shift def _physical_sensors(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: """Generic physical measurements without matching one private dataset. Four row-level archetypes cover smooth signed measurements, bounded percentages, pressure-like wandering levels, and non-negative skewed magnitudes. All share multi-cadence seasonality, smooth synoptic variation, and sparse fronts/gusts. """ seasonal = _seasonal(rng, n, L, k_max=2) smooth = _spectral_gp(rng, n, L) fronts = np.cumsum( _sparse_jumps(rng, n, L, rate=5.0 / L, scale=1.0), axis=1 ) base = ( seasonal * rng.uniform(0.3, 2.0, size=(n, 1)) + smooth * rng.uniform(0.2, 1.2, size=(n, 1)) + fronts * rng.uniform(0.2, 1.0, size=(n, 1)) ) kind = rng.integers(0, 4, size=n) out = base.copy() bounded = kind == 1 if bounded.any(): gain = rng.uniform(0.8, 3.5, size=(int(bounded.sum()), 1)) midpoint = rng.uniform(-0.8, 0.8, size=(int(bounded.sum()), 1)) out[bounded] = 100.0 / (1.0 + np.exp(-gain * (base[bounded] - midpoint))) pressure = kind == 2 if pressure.any(): count = int(pressure.sum()) walk = np.cumsum(rng.standard_normal((count, L)), axis=1) / np.sqrt(L) level = rng.uniform(900.0, 1100.0, size=(count, 1)) out[pressure] = level + rng.uniform(2.0, 15.0, size=(count, 1)) * walk \ + 2.0 * fronts[pressure] + 0.5 * seasonal[pressure] magnitude = kind == 3 if magnitude.any(): count = int(magnitude.sum()) gusts = (rng.random((count, L)) < (8.0 / L)) \ * rng.lognormal(0.0, 0.8, size=(count, L)) power = rng.uniform(1.0, 1.6, size=(count, 1)) out[magnitude] = np.abs(base[magnitude]) ** power + gusts return out def _seasonal_counts(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: """Seasonal Poisson/negative-binomial counts with decaying bursts. This keeps count positivity and discreteness intact while covering overdispersion, cadence-linked rate variation, slow signed growth, and release/news-like bursts. Computation remains batched across rows. """ t = np.arange(L, dtype=np.float64)[None, :] period = rng.choice( _SEASONAL_PERIODS, size=(n, 1), p=_SEASONAL_PROBS ) phase = rng.uniform(0.0, 2.0 * np.pi, size=(n, 1)) amp = rng.uniform(0.15, 0.8, size=(n, 1)) log_rate = amp * np.sin(2.0 * np.pi * t / period + phase) second = rng.random((n, 1)) < 0.55 log_rate += second * (0.5 * amp) * np.sin( 4.0 * np.pi * t / period + rng.uniform(0.0, 2.0 * np.pi, size=(n, 1)) ) # A minority carry explicit calendar interaction: intraday cadence plus # seven day-specific factors, with a randomized weekend dip or lift. calendar = rng.random((n, 1)) < 0.35 day_period = rng.choice([24, 48, 96, 144], size=(n, 1)) day_idx = (np.floor_divide(np.arange(L)[None, :], day_period) % 7).astype(np.int64) day_factors = rng.normal(0.0, 0.12, size=(n, 7)) day_factors[:, 5:] += rng.uniform(-0.8, 0.3, size=(n, 1)) calendar_effect = np.take_along_axis(day_factors, day_idx, axis=1) log_rate += calendar * calendar_effect excursion = rng.uniform(-0.5, 0.5, size=(n, 1)) log_rate += excursion * t / max(L - 1, 1) # Sparse positive impulses filtered by row-specific decay create bursts # without a Python loop over timesteps. impulses = ( (rng.random((n, L)) < (2.0 / L)) * rng.uniform(1.0, 10.0, size=(n, L)) ) burst = _ar1_batch(impulses, rng.uniform(0.85, 0.995, size=(n, 1))) base = np.exp(rng.uniform(np.log(3.0), np.log(3000.0), size=(n, 1))) lam = base * np.exp(np.clip(log_rate, -5.0, 5.0)) * (1.0 + burst) np.clip(lam, 0.0, 1.0e7, out=lam) # A gamma-mixed Poisson is negative-binomial marginally and provides # realistic overdispersion. Half the rows remain ordinary Poisson. overdispersed = rng.random((n, 1)) < 0.5 shape = rng.uniform(0.5, 4.0, size=(n, 1)) mixed = lam * rng.gamma(shape, 1.0 / shape, size=(n, L)) return rng.poisson(np.where(overdispersed, mixed, lam)).astype(np.float64) def _intermittent(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: # Seasonal zero-inflated demand. Occurrence probabilities vary by cadence # instead of being iid, teaching the model forecastable sparse structure. t = np.arange(L, dtype=np.float64)[None, :] base_p = rng.uniform(0.03, 0.35, size=(n, 1)) period = rng.choice([7.0, 12.0, 24.0, 48.0, 168.0], size=(n, 1)) season = rng.uniform(0.2, 1.2, size=(n, 1)) * np.sin( 2.0 * np.pi * t / period + rng.uniform(0.0, 2.0 * np.pi, size=(n, 1)) ) logit = np.log(base_p / (1.0 - base_p)) + season p = 1.0 / (1.0 + np.exp(-logit)) occur = (rng.random((n, L)) < p).astype(np.float64) magnitude = ( rng.gamma(shape=2.0, scale=1.0, size=(n, L)) * rng.uniform(1.0, 10.0, size=(n, 1)) * np.exp(0.25 * season) ) baseline = rng.uniform(0.0, 0.5, size=(n, 1)) return baseline + occur * magnitude def _weekly_demand(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: """Non-negative period-7 demand with promotions, dips, and count rows. Ported from heat#1 (Radiant / Jubilant weekly_demand) — the dedicated ~8% demand prior. Emits continuous positive levels or Poisson counts. """ time = np.arange(L, dtype=np.float64)[None, :] normalized_time = time / max(L - 1, 1) seasonal_amplitude = rng.uniform(0.03, 0.5, size=(n, 1)) profile = rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, 7)) profile -= profile.mean(axis=1, keepdims=True) has_weekend_dip = rng.random(n) < 0.5 dip_start = rng.integers(0, 7, size=n) dip_depth = rng.uniform(0.4, 1.6, size=n) weekend_profile = np.zeros((n, 7), dtype=np.float64) rows = np.arange(n) weekend_profile[rows, dip_start] -= dip_depth weekend_profile[rows, (dip_start + 1) % 7] -= dip_depth weekend_profile -= weekend_profile.mean(axis=1, keepdims=True) profile += np.where(has_weekend_dip[:, None], weekend_profile, 0.0) profile -= profile.mean(axis=1, keepdims=True) phase = rng.integers(0, 7, size=(n, 1)) weekday_index = (np.arange(L)[None, :] + phase) % 7 weekly_log = seasonal_amplitude * np.take_along_axis( profile, weekday_index, axis=1 ) excursion = ( rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, 1)) * rng.uniform(0.3, 2.5, size=(n, 1)) ) trend = excursion * normalized_time step_scale = rng.uniform(0.005, 0.05, size=(n, 1)) random_walk = np.clip( np.cumsum(rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, L)) * step_scale, axis=1), -3.0, 3.0, ) promotion_mask = rng.random((n, L)) < (rng.uniform(1.0, 8.0, size=(n, 1)) / L) promotions = ( promotion_mask * np.abs(rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, L))) * rng.uniform(0.5, 2.5, size=(n, 1)) ) echo = np.zeros_like(promotions) echo[:, 1:] = promotions[:, :-1] * rng.uniform(0.2, 0.6, size=(n, 1)) promotions += echo holiday_mask = rng.random((n, L)) < (rng.uniform(0.0, 4.0, size=(n, 1)) / L) holiday_dips = ( holiday_mask * np.abs(rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, L))) * rng.uniform(0.3, 1.5, size=(n, 1)) ) noise = rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, L)) * rng.uniform(0.02, 0.25, size=(n, 1)) base = rng.uniform(0.0, 8.0, size=(n, 1)) log_mean = np.clip( base + trend + random_walk + weekly_log + promotions - holiday_dips + noise, -8.0, 13.0, ) level = np.exp(log_mean) is_count = rng.random(n) < 0.35 count_scale = rng.uniform(1.0, 60.0, size=(n, 1)) / np.clip( level.mean(axis=1, keepdims=True), 1e-9, None ) counts = rng.poisson(np.clip(level * count_scale, 0.0, 1e6)).astype(np.float64) return np.where(is_count[:, None], counts, level) def _pulse_outlier(rng: np.random.Generator, n: int, L: int) -> np.ndarray: # A smooth base with isolated outliers, persistent shock/recovery responses, # and genuine held-constant runs. base = _spectral_gp(rng, n, L) * rng.uniform(0.5, 2.0, size=(n, 1)) base += _seasonal(rng, n, L, k_max=1) * rng.uniform(0.0, 1.0, size=(n, 1)) sharp = _sparse_jumps( rng, n, L, rate=3.0 / L, scale=rng.uniform(3.0, 8.0, size=n) ) impulses = _sparse_jumps( rng, n, L, rate=2.0 / L, scale=rng.uniform(2.0, 7.0, size=n) ) recovery = _ar1_batch(impulses, rng.uniform(0.75, 0.995, size=n)) series = base + sharp + recovery # Sparse event loops, not a time-axis scan: typically two starts per row. starts = rng.random((n, L)) < (2.0 / L) starts[:, 0] = False for row in range(n): for start in np.nonzero(starts[row])[0]: run = int(rng.integers(3, 65)) end = min(int(start) + run, L) series[row, start:end] = series[row, start - 1] return series # ── final safety gate ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────── def _sanitize(block: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: """Guarantee the contract: finite float64, no NaN/inf, bounded magnitude. The trainer's ``check_series`` rejects any non-finite value, which would fail the whole run — so this is the hard backstop after every family builder. Replaces non-finite values and clips to a generous bound. """ x = np.asarray(block, dtype=np.float64) np.nan_to_num(x, copy=False, nan=0.0, posinf=1e6, neginf=-1e6) np.clip(x, -1e6, 1e6, out=x) return x