{ "prompt": 2, "orders": 1, "method": "temperature per question type and per option-count bucket (choice), by NLL, fitted on the out-of-distribution calibration split only; thresholds per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "temperature_per_prim": { "choice": 2.996614153753363, "noul": 7.999999999999998, "score": 4.756828460010884 }, "temperature_per_bucket": { "choice": { "2-10": 3.830413122794294, "11-26": 2.747907294916178, "27-255": 1.731073122012286 } }, "thresholds": { "0.01": { "confidence": null, "method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "per_type": { "choice": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "noul": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "score": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null } }, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "0.05": { "confidence": null, "method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "per_type": { "choice": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "noul": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "score": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null } }, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null } }, "gates": { "ece_lofo": { "choice": { "pooled": 0.0606221052989346, "n": 7229, "gate": 0.05, "pass": false }, "noul": { "pooled": 0.05231366996904953, "n": 3197, "gate": 0.05, "pass": false }, "score": { "pooled": 0.0740364665334774, "n": 2978, "gate": 0.05, "pass": false } }, "ece_worst_fold": 0.12149008840247141, "worst_fold": "agent", "automated_at": { "0.01": 0.0, "0.05": 0.0 }, "automated_error": { "0.01": null, "0.05": null }, "note": "held-out numbers: every evaluation row predicted by the fit without its family" }, "test": { "T": { "choice": { "acc": 0.6067229215659151, "ece": 0.05329490346712401, "n": 7229 }, "noul": { "acc": 0.737566468564279, "ece": 0.05231366996904953, "n": 3197 }, "score": { "acc": 0.5957018132975151, "ece": 0.08010245549854482, "n": 2978 }, "all": { "acc": 0.6354819456878543, "ece": 0.0323180305717361, "n": 13404 } }, "note": "evaluation pool (development and test splits), full fit" }, "n": { "fit": 2614, "many": 885, "eval": 13404 }, "engine": "think", "fitted_on": { "split": "out-of-distribution calibration split (sealed-seed BH-, JDI- and agent-shaped families, many-option items)", "orders": 1 }, "certified_on": "the same split", "evaluated_on": "development and test splits, leave-one-family-out and leave-one-language-out" }