{ "prompt": 2, "orders": 1, "method": "temperature per question type and per option-count bucket (choice), by NLL, fitted on the out-of-distribution calibration split only; thresholds per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted held-out calibration decisions (10 family folds, each refitted without its families) have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "temperature_per_prim": { "choice": 1.3739536474580891, "noul": 2.3443153776385026, "score": 2.3443153776385026 }, "temperature_per_bucket": { "choice": { "2-10": 1.657681300768087, "11-26": 1.2782470235604306, "27-255": 0.9038571383911009 } }, "thresholds": { "0.01": { "confidence": null, "method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted held-out calibration decisions (10 family folds, each refitted without its families) have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "per_type": { "choice": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.026191679299309416, "heldout_error": 0.09967845659163987 }, "noul": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "score": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null } }, "heldout_coverage": 0.015444207180811442, "heldout_error": 0.09967845659163987 }, "0.05": { "confidence": null, "method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted held-out calibration decisions (10 family folds, each refitted without its families) have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "per_type": { "choice": { "confidence": 0.9497840170762596, "heldout_coverage": 0.46749199932625907, "heldout_error": 0.027202305890830503 }, "noul": { "confidence": 0.8899642791576896, "heldout_coverage": 0.46792809839167454, "heldout_error": 0.01657905378083302 }, "score": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null } }, "heldout_coverage": 0.39847047723096785, "heldout_error": 0.023928215353938187 } }, "gates": { "ece_lofo": { "choice": { "pooled": 0.024225138602409248, "n": 11874, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true }, "noul": { "pooled": 0.040490891273480684, "n": 5285, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true }, "score": { "pooled": 0.045007389421837615, "n": 2978, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true } }, "ece_worst_fold": 0.0913168098241169, "worst_fold": "agent", "automated_at": { "0.01": 0.015444207180811442, "0.05": 0.39847047723096785 }, "automated_error": { "0.01": 0.09967845659163987, "0.05": 0.023928215353938187 }, "note": "held-out numbers: every evaluation row predicted by the fit without its family" }, "test": { "T": { "choice": { "acc": 0.8288697995620684, "ece": 0.025100915016266823, "n": 11874 }, "noul": { "acc": 0.867360454115421, "ece": 0.04020157397242457, "n": 5285 }, "score": { "acc": 0.6645399597044996, "ece": 0.04453554791809394, "n": 2978 }, "all": { "acc": 0.8146695138302626, "ece": 0.02605664299441066, "n": 20137 } }, "note": "evaluation pool (development and test splits), full fit" }, "n": { "fit": 3560, "many": 1500, "eval": 20137 }, "engine": "fast", "fitted_on": { "split": "out-of-distribution calibration split (sealed-seed BH-, JDI- and agent-shaped families, many-option items)", "orders": 1, "readouts": "basal-serve --mode fast, ModelOpt FP8 package (recipe b2)" }, "certified_on": "the same split (held-out folds)", "evaluated_on": "development and test splits, leave-one-family-out and leave-one-language-out" }