{ "prompt": 2, "orders": 2, "method": "temperature per question type and per option-count bucket (choice), by NLL, fitted on the out-of-distribution calibration split only; thresholds per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted held-out calibration decisions (10 family folds, each refitted without its families) have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "temperature_per_prim": { "choice": 1.2968395546510096, "noul": 2.3784142300054416, "score": 2.1810154653305154 }, "temperature_per_bucket": { "choice": { "2-10": 1.5422108254079405, "11-26": 1.189207115002721, "27-255": 0.8408964152537145 } }, "thresholds": { "0.01": { "confidence": null, "method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted held-out calibration decisions (10 family folds, each refitted without its families) have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "per_type": { "choice": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "noul": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "score": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null } }, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null }, "0.05": { "confidence": null, "method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted held-out calibration decisions (10 family folds, each refitted without its families) have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers", "per_type": { "choice": { "confidence": 0.9324167119792968, "heldout_coverage": 0.5202122283981809, "heldout_error": 0.027197668771248185 }, "noul": { "confidence": 0.8507623192282783, "heldout_coverage": 0.5371807000946074, "heldout_error": 0.017964071856287456 }, "score": { "confidence": null, "heldout_coverage": 0.0, "heldout_error": null } }, "heldout_coverage": 0.44773302875304166, "heldout_error": 0.024290150842945835 } }, "gates": { "ece_lofo": { "choice": { "pooled": 0.03112408088578445, "n": 11874, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true }, "noul": { "pooled": 0.04447093014819661, "n": 5285, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true }, "score": { "pooled": 0.033942375912894035, "n": 2978, "gate": 0.05, "pass": true } }, "ece_worst_fold": 0.09030911583398289, "worst_fold": "agent", "automated_at": { "0.01": 0.0, "0.05": 0.44773302875304166 }, "automated_error": { "0.01": null, "0.05": 0.024290150842945835 }, "note": "held-out numbers: every evaluation row predicted by the fit without its family" }, "test": { "T": { "choice": { "acc": 0.8319858514401213, "ece": 0.030022113337473177, "n": 11874 }, "noul": { "acc": 0.8700094607379376, "ece": 0.04472332079999025, "n": 5285 }, "score": { "acc": 0.6658831430490262, "ece": 0.03382839088578605, "n": 2978 }, "all": { "acc": 0.8174008044892487, "ece": 0.02427001174990892, "n": 20137 } }, "note": "evaluation pool (development and test splits), full fit" }, "n": { "fit": 3560, "many": 1500, "eval": 20137 }, "engine": "fast", "fitted_on": { "split": "out-of-distribution calibration split (sealed-seed BH-, JDI- and agent-shaped families, many-option items)", "orders": 2, "readouts": "basal-serve --mode fast, bf16" }, "certified_on": "the same split (held-out folds)", "evaluated_on": "development and test splits, leave-one-family-out and leave-one-language-out" }