# Model Card · A2 — Is this cell-hour in the top decile of violation intensity?

*Generated 2026-09-02 from `reports/` — do not edit by hand.*

## What this model answers

Is this cell-hour in the top decile of violation intensity?

## Caveats

- The original goal of PR-AUC >= 0.45 was unreachable by construction (F10): it assumed ~10% prevalence, but only 2.94% of cell-hours are non-zero, so the label lands at 0.291%.
- Read scores against the 0.291% base rate, not against 0.45. The best learned family is a 46.9x lift over it.

## Results

Ranked by **PR-AUC ↑** (higher is better). Every family that ran is listed, including those that lost — the comparison is the deliverable.

| Model | Family | PR-AUC ↑ | ROC-AUC ↑ | Brier ↓ | Best F1 ↑ | Fit | Beats baseline |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| `random_forest` | trees | 0.1365 | 0.9380 | 0.0027 | 0.2312 | 64s | yes |
| `catboost` | gbdt | 0.1305 | 0.9341 | 0.0027 | 0.2203 | 35s | yes |
| `xgboost` | gbdt | 0.1281 | 0.9368 | 0.0027 | 0.2153 | 20s | yes |
| `extra_trees` | trees | 0.1218 | 0.9362 | 0.0027 | 0.2138 | 23s | yes |
| `stacked` | ensemble | 0.1200 | 0.9363 | 0.0028 | 0.1902 | 233s | yes |
| `logistic` | linear | 0.1127 | 0.9204 | 0.0027 | 0.2074 | 11s | yes |
| `hist_gbm` | gbdt | 0.0881 | 0.9128 | 0.0031 | 0.1896 | 4s | yes |
| `lightgbm` | gbdt | 0.0357 | 0.9229 | 0.0054 | 0.0926 | 14s | yes |
| `prior` | baseline | 0.0029 | 0.5000 | 0.0029 | 0.0058 | 0s | *baseline* |

**Best learned family: `random_forest`** at 0.1365, 46.9x the strongest baseline (`prior` at 0.0029).

## Reproduction

```bash
make data && make ingest && make features
make train
```

Seed `42`. Splits are chronological, never random.