# Model Card · A3 — Will this field capture be rejected at officer review?

*Generated 2026-09-02 from `reports/` — do not edit by hand.*

## What this model answers

Will this field capture be rejected at officer review?

## Caveats

- NOT YET ANSWERABLE (F11). The review process changed regime mid-window: February 2024 rejection jumped to 0.790 from ~0.28 while reviewed volume collapsed sixfold.
- Every family is miscalibrated as a result - Brier scores are worse than the prior baseline. This is a property of the label, not the models.

## Results

Ranked by **PR-AUC ↑** (higher is better). Every family that ran is listed, including those that lost — the comparison is the deliverable.

| Model | Family | PR-AUC ↑ | ROC-AUC ↑ | Brier ↓ | Best F1 ↑ | Fit | Beats baseline |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| `xgboost` | gbdt | 0.3088 | 0.5750 | 0.7122 | 0.3962 | 2s | yes |
| `stacked` | ensemble | 0.3084 | 0.5796 | 0.4401 | 0.4023 | 48s | yes |
| `catboost` | gbdt | 0.2987 | 0.5630 | 0.6817 | 0.4033 | 4s | yes |
| `hist_gbm` | gbdt | 0.2955 | 0.5575 | 0.7166 | 0.3960 | 4s | yes |
| `random_forest` | trees | 0.2919 | 0.5683 | 0.5619 | 0.4040 | 2s | yes |
| `logistic` | linear | 0.2893 | 0.5642 | 0.7211 | 0.4068 | 0s | yes |
| `lightgbm` | gbdt | 0.2838 | 0.5522 | 0.7250 | 0.3954 | 2s | yes |
| `extra_trees` | trees | 0.2825 | 0.5544 | 0.4573 | 0.4027 | 1s | yes |
| `prior` | baseline | 0.2459 | 0.5000 | 0.1881 | 0.3947 | 0s | *baseline* |

**Best learned family: `xgboost`** at 0.3088, +25.6% against the strongest baseline (`prior` at 0.2459).

## Reproduction

```bash
make data && make ingest && make features
make train
```

Seed `42`. Splits are chronological, never random.