{
  "evaluation": "Chronological holdout; same settlement dates never cross split.",
  "limitation": "Retrospective reference-rate estimation, not a validated live forecast. Holdout transactions share dates and are not independent.",
  "train_samples": 35,
  "test_samples": 20,
  "train_end": "2025-04-10",
  "test_start": "2025-04-24",
  "overall": {
    "samples": 20,
    "mean_absolute_rate_error": 0.002063786231320297,
    "mean_absolute_cad_error": 25.595499999999994,
    "mean_absolute_percentage_cad_error": 0.14881260300879887,
    "max_absolute_cad_error": 88.93000000000029,
    "reference_only_mean_absolute_cad_error": 238.63621059632268
  },
  "by_direction": {
    "buy_usd": {
      "samples": 9,
      "mean_absolute_rate_error": 0.0017323628032640908,
      "mean_absolute_cad_error": 22.761111111110672,
      "mean_absolute_percentage_cad_error": 0.12232211939288401,
      "max_absolute_cad_error": 83.27999999999884,
      "reference_only_mean_absolute_cad_error": 244.98126867625402
    },
    "sell_usd": {
      "samples": 11,
      "mean_absolute_rate_error": 0.002334950854275375,
      "mean_absolute_cad_error": 27.914545454545802,
      "mean_absolute_percentage_cad_error": 0.1704866350581837,
      "max_absolute_cad_error": 88.93000000000029,
      "reference_only_mean_absolute_cad_error": 233.44479944001523
    }
  },
  "by_usd_size": {
    "under_1000": {
      "samples": 1,
      "mean_absolute_rate_error": 0.003306363833163406,
      "mean_absolute_cad_error": 2.6800000000000637,
      "mean_absolute_percentage_cad_error": 0.24205858178961348,
      "max_absolute_cad_error": 2.6800000000000637,
      "reference_only_mean_absolute_cad_error": 16.048619246482758
    },
    "1000_to_10000": {
      "samples": 7,
      "mean_absolute_rate_error": 0.0013024354543011984,
      "mean_absolute_cad_error": 2.24857142857143,
      "mean_absolute_percentage_cad_error": 0.0939004738202107,
      "max_absolute_cad_error": 5.269999999999527,
      "reference_only_mean_absolute_cad_error": 45.72021397812029
    },
    "10000_plus": {
      "samples": 12,
      "mean_absolute_rate_error": 0.0024043593844278455,
      "mean_absolute_cad_error": 41.124166666666646,
      "mean_absolute_percentage_cad_error": 0.17307418013707407,
      "max_absolute_cad_error": 88.93000000000029,
      "reference_only_mean_absolute_cad_error": 369.71950790276077
    }
  }
}