"""Position sizing: growth-optimal fractions, score bands, caps and the bankroll replay.""" import numpy as np import pytest from fly_trader import config from fly_trader.agent import sizing def test_kelly_counts_the_tail_and_needs_an_edge(): assert sizing.kelly_fraction(np.array([-0.01, 0.005, -0.02])) == 0.0 # no edge wins = np.full(90, 0.10); rugs = np.full(10, -1.0) assert sizing.kelly_fraction(np.r_[wins, rugs]) == 0.0 # +10 % x 90 cannot pay for 10 total losses (mean -1 %) f = sizing.kelly_fraction(np.r_[np.full(95, 0.10), np.full(5, -1.0)]) # mean +4.5 %: a small bet assert 0.0 < f < 0.5 f_even = sizing.kelly_fraction(np.r_[np.full(50, 0.2), np.full(50, -0.1)]) # classic: p/L - q/W = 0.5/0.1 - 0.5/0.2 = 2.5 -> capped by the grid assert f_even == pytest.approx(0.99) def test_bands_rank_by_margin_and_higher_certainty_bets_more(monkeypatch): rng = np.random.default_rng(0); m = rng.uniform(0, 0.1, 4000) r = np.where(rng.random(4000) < 0.86 + 0.8 * m, 0.08, -0.50) # +8 % wins vs -50 % crashes; the win rate rises with the margin table = sizing.build_table(m, r) assert len(table) == sizing.N_BANDS and table[0]["lo"] == 0.0 and [b["lo"] for b in table] == sorted(b["lo"] for b in table) assert table[-1]["kelly"] > table[0]["kelly"] monkeypatch.setattr(config, "GAS_RESERVE_SOL", 0.3); monkeypatch.setattr(config, "KELLY_FRACTION", 0.25); monkeypatch.setattr(config, "MAX_POSITION_FRACTION", 1.0) monkeypatch.setattr(config, "MAX_POOL_SHARE", 1.0); monkeypatch.setattr(config, "MIN_POSITION_SOL", 0.0) lo, _ = sizing.size_position(0.5 + 0.001, 0.5, table, 10.3, 10.3, 1000.0) hi, _ = sizing.size_position(0.5 + 0.099, 0.5, table, 10.3, 10.3, 1000.0) assert hi > lo >= 0 and hi > 0 # the weakest band may have no edge at all def test_caps_minimum_and_fallback(monkeypatch): table = [{"lo": 0.0, "n": 100, "mean": 0.05, "win": 0.7, "kelly": 0.8}] monkeypatch.setattr(config, "GAS_RESERVE_SOL", 0.3); monkeypatch.setattr(config, "KELLY_FRACTION", 0.25); monkeypatch.setattr(config, "MAX_POSITION_FRACTION", 0.10) monkeypatch.setattr(config, "MAX_POOL_SHARE", 0.02); monkeypatch.setattr(config, "MIN_POSITION_SOL", 0.02); monkeypatch.setattr(config, "MAX_POSITION_SOL", 0.1) s, why = sizing.size_position(0.9, 0.8, table, 5.3, 5.3, 1000.0) assert s == pytest.approx(0.5) and "bankroll cap" in why # 0.25*0.8*5 = 1.0 -> 10 % of 5 = 0.5 s, why = sizing.size_position(0.9, 0.8, table, 5.3, 5.3, 10.0) assert s == pytest.approx(0.2) and "pool depth" in why # 2 % of a 10 SOL pool s, why = sizing.size_position(0.9, 0.8, table, 5.3, 0.31, 1000.0) assert s == 0.0 and "minimum" in why # only 0.01 SOL free above the reserve assert sizing.size_position(0.7, 0.8, table, 5.3, 5.3, 1000.0)[0] == 0.0 # below the line: no band assert sizing.size_position(0.9, 0.8, [], 5.3, 5.3, 1000.0)[0] == pytest.approx(0.1) # no table: the fixed size def test_bankroll_replay_enforces_cash_and_compounds(monkeypatch): monkeypatch.setattr(config, "GAS_RESERVE_SOL", 0.3); monkeypatch.setattr(config, "KELLY_FRACTION", 0.25); monkeypatch.setattr(config, "MAX_POSITION_FRACTION", 0.10) monkeypatch.setattr(config, "MIN_POSITION_SOL", 0.02); monkeypatch.setattr(config, "MAX_POSITION_SOL", 0.1) ts = np.arange(200) * 3600.0; m = np.full(200, 0.05); r = np.full(200, 0.05) # every trade +5 %, one at a time table = [{"lo": 0.0, "n": 200, "mean": 0.05, "win": 1.0, "kelly": 0.99}] sized = sizing.simulate_bankroll(ts, 1800.0, m, r, table, start_sol=5.0); fixed = sizing.simulate_bankroll(ts, 1800.0, m, r, None, start_sol=5.0) assert sized["final_sol"] > fixed["final_sol"] > 5.0 and sized["max_drawdown"] == 0.0 and sized["trades"] == 200 monkeypatch.setattr(config, "MAX_POOL_SHARE", 0.02) shallow = sizing.simulate_bankroll(ts, 1800.0, m, r, table, start_sol=5.0, res_quote=np.full(200, 1.0)) # 1 SOL pools: 0.02 SOL cap assert shallow["final_sol"] < sized["final_sol"] and shallow["trades"] == 200 # the pool-depth cap binds, as live