XLRE over past 60 days: cumulative return +14.3%, annualized vol 23.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLRE
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=31.88, end=36.45, cumulative_return=+14.3%, annualized_volatility=23.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.58, 'cpi_yoy': 301.45, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22439.607, 't10y2y_spread': -0.81, 't10y3m_spread': -1.08, 'breakeven_10y': 2.25, 'hy_oas': 3.99, 'ig_oas': 1.2, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.09, 'vix': 19.43000030517578}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-02-06] ["A Rare Earnings Miss Couldn\u2019t Stop Apple Stock (NASDAQ:AAPL) Shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) are fresh off a quarterly earnings miss, with sales slipping 5% year-over-year, marking the worst quarterly top-line decline in years. Still, Apple stock was resilient following the disappointing number, closing off Friday's session up 2.4% in a bloody day for tech stocks. I remain bullish as Apple stock shrugs off its forgettable quarter and moves on from headwinds that are bound to fade in time. The recent round of quarterly results themselves was nothing to write home about (weakness was broadly spread across categories). It was likely the words of management that helped soothed investor nerves, helping Apple stock outperform some FAANG rivals that also reported the previous day. The company didn't give formal guidance for Fiscal 2023 due to macro uncertainty. It's noteworthy that the words \"macro headwinds\" were used quite a bit throughout the conference call. In any case, I think it's only prudent not to attempt to provide any sort of concrete guidance with recession headwinds up ahead. Despite the lack of guidance, management didn't leave investors in the dark. CEO Tim Cook called for year-over-year sales growth to be \"similar to the December quarter.\" Such words, I believe, set the bar quite low for the coming quarter and could set the stage to impress. He also stated that \"from a supply chain point of view, we're now at a point where production is what we need it to be.\" That alone was likely enough to help Apple investors breathe a sigh of relief. Apple: The Worst of the Production Issues May Have Passed My takeaway from Cook's comments was that the worst of production headwinds may already be in the rearview mirror. Indeed, the next quarter could see iPhone revenue growth in the red. However, the second half could see Apple make up for lost time as production gets up to full speed while Apple users finally look to upgrade. Indeed, Apple can afford to have some sizeable supply-side hiccups without losing too much business. At the end of the day, customer loyalty is unparalleled, with many Apple users that will opt not to switch to a competing product, even if it means having to endure longer wait times. Lockdowns in China have weighed heavily on operations. Still, I am confident that Cook can promptly bring production back in order. The man is an operational genius who's effectively ironed out supply-chain wrinkles in the past. Once Apple moves past the current barrage of headwinds, it'll likely be right back to gaining meaningful market share in the smartphone market again. Further, amping up efforts to expand into India, a market where Apple is reportedly enjoying double-digit growth, could help fuel such market gains. Apple's Rough Quarter is Easy to Forgive There's no question that Apple was up against it going into what many expected would be a rough quarter. Going into the quarter, estimates were muted, thanks in part to manufact

Predict whether the return of XLRE over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLRE starting 2023-02-07 was -8.02%, which classifies as 'negative'.


SCHP over past 60 days: cumulative return -1.2%, annualized vol 6.0%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: SCHP
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=23.81, end=23.53, cumulative_return=-1.2%, annualized_volatility=6.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 307.276, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.67, 't10y3m_spread': -1.28, 'breakeven_10y': 2.29, 'hy_oas': 3.83, 'ig_oas': 1.22, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.18, 'vix': 14.010000228881836}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of SCHP over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for SCHP starting 2023-09-06 was -1.90%, which classifies as 'negative'.


ADA-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -14.3%, annualized vol 30.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ADA-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.29, end=0.25, cumulative_return=-14.3%, annualized_volatility=30.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 307.696, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23033.78, 't10y2y_spread': -0.41, 't10y3m_spread': -1.03, 'breakeven_10y': 2.32, 'hy_oas': 4.25, 'ig_oas': 1.27, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.49, 'vix': 16.09000015258789}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-10-11]

Predict whether the return of ADA-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ADA-USD starting 2023-10-12 was +31.40%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XLK over past 60 days: cumulative return +2.1%, annualized vol 17.2%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLK
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=80.70, end=82.41, cumulative_return=+2.1%, annualized_volatility=17.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 306.082, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.68, 't10y3m_spread': -1.23, 'breakeven_10y': 2.35, 'hy_oas': 3.93, 'ig_oas': 1.25, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.09, 'vix': 16.969999313354492}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-08-22] ["Apple\u2019s Buyback Blunder: 3 Reasons It\u2019s Not a Win for AAPL Shareholders InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips If there\u2019s one thing that feels like Christmas to Warren Buffett is when Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) repurchases AAPL stock. After all, the more Apple stock the iPhone maker buys back, the more significant percentage of Apple Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) owns. In Berkshire\u2019s 2021 shareholder letter, Buffett mentions that his company spent no money to increase its ownership stake to 5.5% from 5.39% in 2020. Share repurchases by Apple in 2021 added $1.1 billion in earnings controlled by Berkshire\u2019s investment. \u201cIt\u2019s important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the GAAP earnings Berkshire reports \u2013 and last year, Apple paid us $785 million of those. Yet our \u2018share\u2019 of Apple\u2019s earnings amounted to a staggering $5.6 billion,\u201d Berkshire\u2019s 2021 shareholder letter stated. \u201cMuch of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares, an act we applaud.\u201d Warren Buffett might like the Apple buybacks, but the average investor has three reasons to consider why it\u2019s not a win for regular AAPL stock investors. It Significantly Overpaid for AAPL Stock Source: Shutterstock Apple has spent more than $500 billion in share repurchases since 2012. The company had 929.4 million shares as of Oct. 14, 2011. On Oct. 14, 2023, it had 15.91 billion shares. Apple\u2019s stock has split on two occasions over this period \u2014 a 7-for-1 split on June 9, 2014, and a 4-for-1 split on Aug. 28, 2020 \u2014 which increased the share count. Considering the two splits, it reduced its share count by 39% [929.4M x 7 x 4 minus 15.91B divided by 26.02B]. That seems like a great deal for Apple shareholders. Have you ever considered what it could have paid for these shares? In fiscal 2022, the company repurchased $90.2 billion of its stock at an average price of $158.52. It is the most repurchased in a single year in the company\u2019s history. Based on its current share price, it has a 10.1% return on its investment. In the 12 months between Sept. 22, 2021, and Sept. 23, 2022, Apple\u2019s high was $182.94 in January 2022, while its low was $129.04 in June 2022. The average of the high and low during the year was $155.99. It paid $2.53 more per share than the average. Conservatively, that\u2019s over $1 billion too much. I would bet dollars to donuts; it\u2019s done this every year since 2012. Reinvestment of Funds Used Could Have Developed a New Killer Product Source: Vit-Mar/Shutterstock Despite the possibility of a virtual reality (VR) headset and driverless car, the iPhone remains Apple\u2019s key product and revenue generator. ZDNet reminded its readers in September 2022 that only 11.2 million VR headsets were shipped in 2021 compared to 1.3 billion smartphones. That\u2019s 116x as many. In June this year, AAPL stock launched the Apple Vis

Predict whether the return of XLK over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLK starting 2023-08-23 was -3.62%, which classifies as 'negative'.


^VIX over past 60 days: cumulative return +48.5%, annualized vol 99.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ^VIX
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=14.41, end=21.40, cumulative_return=+48.5%, annualized_volatility=99.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 307.696, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23033.78, 't10y2y_spread': -0.16, 't10y3m_spread': -0.62, 'breakeven_10y': 2.49, 'hy_oas': 4.37, 'ig_oas': 1.31, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.49, 'vix': 21.39999961853028}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-10-19] ["Google to manufacture smartphones in India starting with Pixel 8 Adds quote in paragraph 3, context from paragraph 4 NEW DELHI, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Alphabet Inc GOOGL.O will start manufacturing in India and will partner with international and domestic manufacturers to produce its Pixel smartphones locally, starting with Pixel 8, an executive said on Thursday. The devices are expected to be rolled out in 2024, Rick Osterloh, senior vice president of devices and services, said at a Google event. \"India is a priority market for Pixel smartphones, and we\u2019re committed to bringing the best of our hardware and underlying built-in software capabilities to people across the country,\" Osterloh said. India is aiming to become a manufacturing powerhouse, amid a greater push for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's \"Make in India\" initiative. Apple AAPL.O, which has been touting India as its next big growth driver, is projected to account for 7% of all smartphone sales in the country from July to December, up from 5% in the first half of 2023, according to data from market researcher Counterpoint. U.S. memory chip firm Micron Technology MU.O recently announced plans to set up its first semiconductor plant in the country. (Reporting by Tanvi Mehta and Blassy Boben; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman) ((blassy.boben@thomsonreuters.com;)) The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.", "TSMC Q3 profit falls 24.9%, beats market forecasts Q3 profit T$211 bln vs T$195.5 bln analyst view Q3 revenue down 14.6% on year at $17.3 bln Q3 capex $7.1 bln vs Q2 $8.17 bln Adds details and share prices in paragraphs 4-7 TAIPEI, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC 2330.TW posted a 24.9% fall in third-quarter net profit on Thursday as global economic woes hit demand for chips used in applications from cars to cellphones and servers and coming off a high base last year. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) TSM.N, the world's largest contract chipmaker and a major Apple Inc AAPL.O supplier, saw July-September net profit fall to T$211 billion from T$280.9 billion a year earlier. The profit beat a T$195.5 billion LSEG SmartEstimate, which is weighted toward forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate. TSMC, Asia's most valuable listed company, said third-quarter revenue dropped 14.6% to $17.3 billion, in line with the company's previous forecast of $16.7 billion to $17.5 billion. Capital expenditure in the third quarter was $7.1 billion, TSMC said, compared with $8.17 billion in the previous quarter. As the biggest maker of advanced chips, TSMC must navigate an uncertain industry outlook and a U.S.-China chip spat that could make it vulnerable. TSMC's Taipei-listed shares fell 27.1% in 2022, but are up around 22% so far this year, giving the chipmaker a market value of $432.3 billion. The stock rose 1.1% on Thursday versus a flat benchmark index .TWII. (Re

Predict whether the return of ^VIX over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ^VIX starting 2023-10-20 was -38.23%, which classifies as 'negative'.


TLH over past 60 days: cumulative return +5.9%, annualized vol 11.9%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: TLH
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=97.26, end=102.98, cumulative_return=+5.9%, annualized_volatility=11.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 314.732, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23478.57, 't10y2y_spread': 0.06, 't10y3m_spread': -1.41, 'breakeven_10y': 2.03, 'hy_oas': 3.39, 'ig_oas': 0.99, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.35, 'vix': 22.3799991607666}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of TLH over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for TLH starting 2024-09-09 was -3.29%, which classifies as 'negative'.


XLRE over past 60 days: cumulative return +3.4%, annualized vol 17.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLRE
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=35.08, end=36.28, cumulative_return=+3.4%, annualized_volatility=17.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 310.967, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23082.119, 't10y2y_spread': -0.39, 't10y3m_spread': -1.2, 'breakeven_10y': 2.33, 'hy_oas': 3.29, 'ig_oas': 1.0, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.94, 'vix': 13.399999618530272}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[SEC 10-K UNH 2024-02-28] unh-20231231 false 2023 FY 0000731766 12/31 10 50 http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#OtherLiabilities P4Y P4Y P5Y P3Y 1/1/2026 1/1/2042 1/1/2024 1/1/2043 0.038 0.046 0.019 0.043 0.007 0.012 0.297 0.306 0.306 0.308 0.292 0.298 0.013 0.015 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.015 4.605251141552511 4.702283105022831 4.802054794520548 5.502739726027397 4.202283105022831 5.502739726027397 1.2993150684931507 0000731766 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000731766 2023-06-30 iso4217:USD 0000731766 2024-01-31 xbrli:shares 0000731766 2023-12-31 0000731766 2022-12-31 iso4217:USD xbrli:shares 0000731766 2022-01-01 2022-12-31 0000731766 2021-01-01 2021-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ProductMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ProductMember 2022-01-01 2022-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ProductMember 2021-01-01 2021-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ServiceMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ServiceMember 2022-01-01 2022-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ServiceMember 2021-01-01 2021-12-31 0000731766 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us-gaap:MortgageBackedSecuritiesIssuedByUSGovernmentSponsoredEnterprisesMember 2022-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:MortgageBackedSecuritiesIssuedByPrivateEnt [...TRUNCATED...] d long-term debt can be found in Note 8 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” Long-term debt obligations of the parent company do not include other financing obligations at subsidiaries which totaled $ 1.1 billion and $ 0.9 billion at December 31, 2023 and 2022. Maturities of short-term borrowings and long-term debt for the years ending December 31 are as follows: (in millions) 2024 $ 4,088   2025 3,050   2026 2,500   2027 2,925   2028 3,000   Thereafter 47,002   UnitedHealth Group’s parent company had notes payable to subsidiaries of $ 9.9 billion and $ 8.7 billion as of December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively, which included on-demand features. 4. Commitments and Contingencies Certain regulated subsidiaries are guaranteed by UnitedHealth Group’s parent company in the event of insolvency. UnitedHealth Group’s parent company also provides guarantees related to its service level under certain contracts. None of the amounts accrued, paid or charged to income for service level guarantees were material as of December 31, 2023, 2022 or 2021. For a summary of commitments and contingencies, see Note 12 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” ITEM  16.    FORM 10-K SUMMARY None. 79 Table of Contents SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized. Dated: February 28, 2024   UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED By /s/    A NDREW W ITTY   Andrew Witty Chief Executive Officer Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, this report has been signed below by the following persons on behalf of the registrant and in the capacities and on the dates indicated.   Signature Title Date /s/ A NDREW W ITTY Director and Chief Executive Officer (principal executive officer) February 28, 2024 Andrew Witty /s/ J OHN R EX Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (principal financial officer) February 28, 2024 John Rex /s/ T HOMAS R OOS Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer (principal accounting officer) February 28, 2024 Thomas Roos * Director February 28, 2024 Charles Baker * Director February 28, 2024 Timothy Flynn * Director February 28, 2024 Paul Garcia * Director February 28, 2024 Kristen Gil * Director February 28, 2024 Stephen Hemsley * Director February 28, 2024 Michele Hooper * Director February 28, 2024 F. William McNabb III * Director February 28, 2024 Valerie Montgomery Rice, M.D. * Director February 28, 2024 John Noseworthy, M.D.   *By /s/ R UPERT B ONDY   Rupert Bondy As Attorney-in-Fact 80

Predict whether the return of XLRE over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLRE starting 2024-03-01 was -1.10%, which classifies as 'negative'.


XLRE over past 60 days: cumulative return +3.4%, annualized vol 17.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLRE
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=33.63, end=34.77, cumulative_return=+3.4%, annualized_volatility=17.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.08, 'cpi_yoy': 304.609, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.91, 't10y3m_spread': -1.49, 'breakeven_10y': 2.26, 'hy_oas': 4.01, 'ig_oas': 1.28, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.71, 'vix': 14.18000030517578}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-07-05] ["MORNING BID ASIA-Yellen in China By Jamie McGeever July 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen touches down in Beijing on Thursday for a three-day visit just as trade tensions between the world's two superpowers ratchet up another notch, while a Malaysian interest rate decision tops the region's economic calendar. Australian trade data and Taiwanese inflation figures are on tap too, and equity investors will digest a mixed earnings report from Taiwan's Foxconn2317.TW, a major iPhone assembler for Apple Inc AAPL.O. Asian stocks go into Thursday's session on the defensive, underperforming on Wednesday after figures showed that China's service sector activity expanded at the slowest pace in five months in June. Foxconn's results may help lift the gloom, after the firm on Wednesday forecast a brighter third quarter ahead of peak shopping season at the end of the year. But that is only relative to a near 14% drop in Q2 revenue year-on-year. China remains front and center for investors. U.S.-China trade tensions appear to be intensifying by the day - the latest flare up coming over Beijing's restrictions on exports of some metals - not the best backdrop for Yellen's visit on Thursday. U.S. officials says they expect \"candid\" discussions, and Washington has said it \"firmly\" opposes the new export controls on gallium and germanium, which go into producing semiconductors and other electronics. However well - or otherwise - Yellen's visit goes, there will be no quick fix. Former Vice Commerce Minister Wei Jianguo said the controls are \"just a start\". In Malaysia, meanwhile, the central bank on Thursday is expected to leave key rates unchanged at 3.00% and keep them there for the rest of the year, putting it in line with regional peers in India, South Korea, Indonesia and New Zealand who have already ended their tightening cycles. Headline inflation eased to a one-year low of 2.8% in May, but core inflation moderated only a bit to 3.5%, suggesting Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will hold its key rate higher for longer. The central bank delivered a surprise hike in May. Last week, it said it would intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the ringgit to counter what it said were \"excessive\" recent losses. The ringgit was one of Asia's worst-performing currencies in the first half of the year, losing almost 6% of its value against the dollar. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday: - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visits China - Australia trade (May) - Taiwan inflation (June) Malaysian interest rates https://tmsnrt.rs/3XBEzYx Asian FX vs U.S. dollar this year https://tmsnrt.rs/3NYLzvp (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Lisa Shumaker) ((jamie.mcgeever@thomsonreuters.com; Reuters Messaging: jamie.mcgeever.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net, Twitter: @ReutersJamie)) The views and opinions expressed her

Predict whether the return of XLRE over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLRE starting 2023-07-06 was -2.37%, which classifies as 'negative'.


IWM over past 60 days: cumulative return -10.8%, annualized vol 15.0%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: IWM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=188.61, end=168.19, cumulative_return=-10.8%, annualized_volatility=15.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 307.696, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23033.78, 't10y2y_spread': -0.38, 't10y3m_spread': -0.9, 'breakeven_10y': 2.38, 'hy_oas': 4.27, 'ig_oas': 1.27, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.49, 'vix': 17.209999084472656}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-10-16] ["US STOCKS-Wall St jumps 1% to kick-start earnings and data-heavy week, megacaps rise By Ankika Biswas and Shashwat Chauhan Oct 16 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes jumped more than 1% on Monday as megacaps rose to kick-start a week packed with corporate earnings and economic data, while investors also monitored the Israel-Hamas conflict. The Dow touched a near four-week high and was on course for its best day in more than two months, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were headed for their best days in nearly two weeks. Megacaps Microsoft MSFT.O, Meta Platforms META.O, Alphabet GOOGL.O and Amazon.com AMZN.O rose between 1% and 2%. Consumer discretionary .SPLRCD and materials .SPLRCM led the gains across major S&P 500 sectors, while utilities .SPLRCU and energy stocks .SPNY lagged behind. \"There's a little bit of risk-on sentiment coming from a pretty solid start to their earnings season,\" said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird. \"It says that what the economic data is also saying, which is that the economy is stronger than we were giving it credit for at the year's start, certainly not recessionary.\" Results from large banks Goldman Sachs GS.N, Bank of America BAC.N, Morgan Stanley MS.N, pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson JNJ.N, EV maker Tesla TSLA.O and video-streaming pioneer Netflix NFLX.O are due this week. Third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are estimated to grow 2.2% year-on-year, LSEG data showed on Friday. Long-dated Treasury yields rose amid increased U.S. government debt issuance while a possible Israeli ground offensive in Gaza has led to uncertainty in the bond market. Investors also await economic data including retail sales for September and the Philly Fed Business Index for October later this week. Latest data showed the NY Fed's \"Empire State\" index, a gauge of manufacturing activity in New York State, fell to -4.60 in October, against expectations of a drop to -7. The Dow Jones Transport Average index .DJT, seen as an indicator of economic prosperity, was on track for its best day in nearly three months. Investors are focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on Thursday, before Fed officials enter a blackout period starting Oct. 21 ahead of their policy meeting. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reiterated his view from Friday that the U.S. central bank was likely done with its rate-hike cycle. Among stocks, Apple AAPL.O bucked the trend among its growth peers, dipping 0.1% on a report the company's iPhones were off to a disappointing start in China. Lululemon AthleticaLULU.O added 9.6% as the sportswear apparel maker is set to join the S&P 500 index this week, replacing Activision Blizzard ATVI.O. ModernaMRNA.O reaffirmed its forecast of $6 billion to $8 billion in COVID vaccine sales for the year. The company's shares fell 5.0%. Charles SchwabSCHW.N jumped 4.8% as the brokerage posted a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly profit. Advancing issues outnumbered

Predict whether the return of IWM over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for IWM starting 2023-10-17 was +2.18%, which classifies as 'positive'.


STIP over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.8%, annualized vol 1.8%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: STIP
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=95.11, end=95.90, cumulative_return=+0.8%, annualized_volatility=1.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.83, 'cpi_yoy': 316.528, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23586.542, 't10y2y_spread': 0.07, 't10y3m_spread': -0.38, 'breakeven_10y': 2.27, 'hy_oas': 2.86, 'ig_oas': 0.84, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.72, 'vix': 20.489999771118164}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of STIP over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for STIP starting 2024-11-06 was +0.54%, which classifies as 'flat'.


EEM over past 60 days: cumulative return +7.8%, annualized vol 13.6%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: EEM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=37.58, end=40.50, cumulative_return=+7.8%, annualized_volatility=13.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.175, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23286.508, 't10y2y_spread': -0.31, 't10y3m_spread': -0.95, 'breakeven_10y': 2.35, 'hy_oas': 3.08, 'ig_oas': 0.89, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.22, 'vix': 13.489999771118164}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
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0000104169 us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel12And3Member 2021-02-01 2022-01-31 00001 [...TRUNCATED...] sentation Linkbase Document 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL and contained in Exhibit 101) * Filed herewith as an Exhibit. ** Furnished herewith as an Exhibit. (C) This Exhibit is a management contract or compensatory plan or arrangement (P) This Exhibit was originally filed in paper format. Accordingly, a hyperlink has not been provided. (1) Certain instruments defining the rights of holders of long-term debt securities of the Registrant are omitted pursuant to Item 601(b)(4)(iii) of Regulation S-K. The Company hereby undertakes to furnish to the SEC, upon request, copies of any such instruments. (c)    Financial Statement Schedules: None. ITEM 16. FORM 10-K SUMMARY None. 85 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.   Walmart Inc. Date: March 15, 2024   By   /s/ C. Douglas McMillon     C. Douglas McMillon     President and Chief Executive Officer Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, this report has been signed below by the following persons on behalf of the registrant and in the capacities and on the dates indicated: Date: March 15, 2024   By   /s/ C. Douglas McMillon     C. Douglas McMillon     President and Chief Executive Officer and Director     (Principal Executive Officer) Date: March 15, 2024   By   /s/ Gregory B. Penner     Gregory B. Penner     Chairman of the Board and Director Date: March 15, 2024   By   /s/ John David Rainey     John David Rainey     Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (Principal Financial Officer) Date: March 15, 2024   By   /s/ David M. Chojnowski     David M. Chojnowski     Senior Vice President and Controller (Principal Accounting Officer) Signature Page to Walmart Inc. Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended January 31, 2024 86 Date: March 15, 2024   By   /s/ Cesar Conde     Cesar Conde     Director Date: March 15, 2024 By /s/ Timothy P. Flynn Timothy P. Flynn Director Date: March 15, 2024 By /s/ Sarah Friar Sarah Friar Director Date: March 15, 2024 By /s/ Carla A. Harris Carla A. Harris Director Date: March 15, 2024 By /s/ Thomas W. Horton Thomas W. Horton Director Date: March 15, 2024 By /s/ Marissa A. Mayer Marissa A. Mayer Director Date: March 15, 2024 By /s/ Randall L. Stephenson Randall L. Stephenson Director Date: March 15, 2024   By   /s/ S. Robson Walton     S. Robson Walton     Director Date: March 15, 2024   By   /s/ Steuart L. Walton     Steuart L. Walton     Director Signature Page to Walmart Inc. Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended January 31, 2024 87

Predict whether the return of EEM over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for EEM starting 2024-05-06 was -0.47%, which classifies as 'flat'.


VEA over past 60 days: cumulative return -7.2%, annualized vol 12.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: VEA
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=43.38, end=40.23, cumulative_return=-7.2%, annualized_volatility=12.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 307.696, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23033.78, 't10y2y_spread': -0.36, 't10y3m_spread': -0.79, 'breakeven_10y': 2.41, 'hy_oas': 4.25, 'ig_oas': 1.27, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.49, 'vix': 17.8799991607666}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-10-17] ["Dow Movers: INTC, BA In early trading on Tuesday, shares of Boeing topped the list of the day's best performing Dow Jones Industrial Average components, trading up 1.4%. Year to date, Boeing has lost about 1.6% of its value. And the worst performing Dow component thus far on the day is Intel, trading down 3.4%. Intel is showing a gain of 33.7% looking at the year to date performance. Two other components making moves today are Apple, trading down 2.0%, and Chevron, trading up 0.9% on the day. VIDEO: Dow Movers: INTC, BA The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.", "The \"Magnificent Seven\" Have Made the S&P 500 More Concentrated Than Ever. Historically, That's Bad News for Stocks. When examined over multidecade periods, Wall Street's three major stock indexes -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) -- are undeniable moneymakers. But when explored over shorter spans, the performance of these indexes becomes unpredictable. Since this decade began, the major stock indexes have teetered between bull and bear markets on a number of occasions. While 2023 has been a relatively good year for the benchmark S&P 500 and growth stock-fueled Nasdaq Composite, a number of potential warning flags have emerged. Perhaps none is waving more frantically than the steadily increasing concentration of the S&P 500. Image source: Getty Images. The Magnificent Seven are responsible for nearly all the S&P 500's gains in 2023 The S&P 500 is widely viewed as the best benchmark of Wall Street's \"health.\" It's a market cap-weighted index comprised of 500 generally profitable, time-tested companies, a few of which have multiple classes of shares. All told, the S&P 500 has 503 components, with representation from all sectors and most industries. You'd think that a 500-company index would be fairly diverse and act as an accurate barometer for Wall Street, but this simply isn't the case, thanks to the rise of the Magnificent Seven. In order of largest to smallest market cap, as of Oct. 13, the Magnificent Seven stocks are: Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) The Magnificent Seven bring two attributes to the table that make them irresistible to many investors. First, they're industry leaders with relatively sustained moats and/or competitive edges: Apple accounts for a little over half of all U.S. smartphone market share and has the most robust capital-return program among publicly traded companies in the U.S. Microsoft is enjoying a blend of the old with the new. Its legacy Windows operating system still dominates on desktops, while its cloud infrastructure service, Azure, ranks second inglobal marketshare. Alphabet's Google has tallied at least 90% of worldwid

Predict whether the return of VEA over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for VEA starting 2023-10-18 was +4.73%, which classifies as 'positive'.


ICSH over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.9%, annualized vol 0.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ICSH
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=46.76, end=47.20, cumulative_return=+0.9%, annualized_volatility=0.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.83, 'cpi_yoy': 314.732, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23478.57, 't10y2y_spread': 0.15, 't10y3m_spread': -0.92, 'breakeven_10y': 2.18, 'hy_oas': 3.03, 'ig_oas': 0.92, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.08, 'vix': 16.729999542236328}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of ICSH over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ICSH starting 2024-10-01 was +0.18%, which classifies as 'flat'.


VTI over past 60 days: cumulative return +2.8%, annualized vol 15.4%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: VTI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=194.74, end=200.12, cumulative_return=+2.8%, annualized_volatility=15.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.08, 'cpi_yoy': 303.334, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22580.499, 't10y2y_spread': -0.74, 't10y3m_spread': -1.54, 'breakeven_10y': 2.23, 'hy_oas': 4.53, 'ig_oas': 1.41, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.57, 'vix': 17.950000762939453}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-05-26] ["Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai Commits to \"AI Pact\": What Does This Really Mean? The world of artificial intelligence (AI) is moving at a breakneck speed, and top corporate and political leaders are trying to safely guide its evolution. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai met with European Commissioner for the internal market Thierry Breton on Wednesday to discuss the progression of AI and map out possible actions to help ensure the emerging technology doesn't get out of hand. In the meeting, Pichai promised that his company would join an \"AI pact\" and collaborate with other players in the artificial intelligence space on a volunteer basis to shape and abide by guidelines for tech development. But while there's seemingly a lot to like about the prospect of guardrails being put on AI, it's not clear that voluntary pacts or even strict laws will be able to address many of the potential problems that could arise. Could an AI pact help stave off potential disasters? While detailed specifics of what rules and guidelines members of an AI pact would be adhering to haven't been made available, Pichai's discussion with other members of the European Commission suggest that privacy standards and fighting misinformation could be key focuses. The rapid progression for artificial intelligence tech over the last year is unprecedented, and continued advances could be unwieldy. Because legislative bodies can be slow to act and laws vary between territories, it could be important for technology leaders to attempt to establish some kind of presiding framework for artificial intelligence initiatives. Taking a proactive approach to the problems and questions raised by incredible leaps forward for artificial intelligence could help minimize the possibility of disastrous outcomes stemming from the tech. The AI pact mentioned by Pichai at the meeting with Breton seems to be a step in this direction. But there's a risk that rules surrounding AI might not amount to much. For one, it's possible that voluntary AI guidelines and restrictions will be followed very loosely or only in the most nominal senses. It's also possible that those who don't abide by rules for the artificial intelligence project, whether self-imposed or through regulations, could actually gain significant competitive advantages. Controlling AI could be incredibly difficult The European Parliament is currently finalizing a new set of rules and restrictions that will govern AI technologies. The EU AI Act isn't officially law yet, but it's seemingly headed in that direction and could be a landmark response that plays a big role in the tech's evolution in Europe. But it might not be enough, and it may have unintended consequences. Developing ways to work around restrictions could be incentivized by the proposed regulations, and the speed at which AI tech has been progressing will make it difficult for regulators to keep up. Additionally, there are already signs that influential player

Predict whether the return of VTI over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for VTI starting 2023-05-29 was +5.00%, which classifies as 'positive'.


SGOV over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.8%, annualized vol 0.2%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: SGOV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=92.26, end=93.03, cumulative_return=+0.8%, annualized_volatility=0.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.044, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23286.508, 't10y2y_spread': -0.39, 't10y3m_spread': -1.18, 'breakeven_10y': 2.26, 'hy_oas': 3.18, 'ig_oas': 0.97, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.87, 'vix': 12.550000190734863}
Market regime: bull

Predict whether the return of SGOV over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for SGOV starting 2024-06-27 was +0.32%, which classifies as 'flat'.


VTI over past 60 days: cumulative return +1.4%, annualized vol 17.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: VTI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=188.84, end=191.58, cumulative_return=+1.4%, annualized_volatility=17.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.57, 'cpi_yoy': 301.821, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22439.607, 't10y2y_spread': -0.91, 't10y3m_spread': -1.07, 'breakeven_10y': 2.38, 'hy_oas': 3.98, 'ig_oas': 1.25, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.65, 'vix': 19.59000015258789}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-03-07] ["Better Ad Tech Stock: The Trade Desk vs. Magnite The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) and Magnite (NASDAQ: MGNI) are both independent ad tech companies that operate in the shadows of diversified advertising giants like Alphabet's (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Google and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META). Unlike those larger advertising companies, The Trade Desk and Magnite don't lock publishers and advertisers into their walled gardens. Instead, both companies make it easier to purchase ads on desktop, mobile, and connected TV (CTV) platforms across the \"open\" internet, which doesn't operate under those big tech umbrellas. But over the past 12 months, The Trade Desk's stock declined 28% as Magnite's stock dropped 17%. Image source: Getty Images. Both stocks lost their luster as rising rates and other macro headwinds caused companies to curb their spending on ads. Cautious investors also abandoned higher-growth tech stocks in favor of cheaper value plays. But could either of these fallen ad tech stocks bounce back this year? The differences between The Trade Desk and Magnite The Trade Desk and Magnite are both independent platforms, but they sit at opposite ends of the advertising supply chain. The Trade Desk is a demand-side platform (DSP), which allows advertisers to bid on ad space across a wide range of platforms, while Magnite operates a sell-side platform (SSP), which helps publishers sell their own ad inventories. These two companies are the largest independent players in their respective markets. DSPs typically work in tandem with SSPs to sell digital ads. Google and Meta bundle together DSPs, SSPs, and other advertising services, but they're not independent platforms. However, The Trade Desk recently launched OpenPath, a new feature that bypasses SSPs like Magnite to connect publishers to advertisers. That feature could make it a more diversified advertising company like Google or Meta, but it could also hurt Magnite and other SSPs. The Trade Desk hasn't made any acquisitions since it bought the assets of the ad tech company AdBrain in 2017. Meanwhile, Magnite was created by the merger of two smaller companies, The Rubicon Project and Telaria, in 2020. It then bought the video advertising companies SpotX and SpringServe, as well as the publisher monetization firm Carbon. Therefore, it's fairly easy for investors to track The Trade Desk's growth. Magnite's growth rates need to be reviewed more carefully due to its inorganic growth rates and ex-TAC (excluding traffic acquisition costs) revenues -- which it started using as its core growth metric after its purchase of SpotX in 2021. Which company is growing faster? The Trade Desk's revenue rose 26% in 2020, even as the pandemic throttled the market's demand for digital ads. But in 2021, its revenue increased 43% as the advertising market recovered. In 2022, its revenue rose 32% to $1.58 billion, even as inflation rattled the markets and Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iOS update prevented many advertisers -

Predict whether the return of VTI over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for VTI starting 2023-03-08 was +1.74%, which classifies as 'positive'.


IAU over past 60 days: cumulative return +17.4%, annualized vol 15.2%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: IAU
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=31.29, end=36.75, cumulative_return=+17.4%, annualized_volatility=15.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 300.42, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22439.607, 't10y2y_spread': -0.66, 't10y3m_spread': -1.26, 'breakeven_10y': 2.27, 'hy_oas': 4.33, 'ig_oas': 1.29, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.15, 'vix': 19.200000762939453}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of IAU over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for IAU starting 2023-01-25 was -6.39%, which classifies as 'negative'.


LINK-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -14.2%, annualized vol 64.9%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: LINK-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=19.36, end=16.61, cumulative_return=-14.2%, annualized_volatility=64.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.175, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23286.508, 't10y2y_spread': -0.44, 't10y3m_spread': -0.99, 'breakeven_10y': 2.3, 'hy_oas': 3.1, 'ig_oas': 0.89, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.94, 'vix': 12.770000457763672}
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of LINK-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for LINK-USD starting 2024-05-24 was -14.53%, which classifies as 'negative'.


PPLT over past 60 days: cumulative return -4.4%, annualized vol 26.2%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: PPLT
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=90.00, end=86.01, cumulative_return=-4.4%, annualized_volatility=26.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.569, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23478.57, 't10y2y_spread': -0.16, 't10y3m_spread': -1.18, 'breakeven_10y': 2.27, 'hy_oas': 3.1, 'ig_oas': 0.95, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.78, 'vix': 16.389999389648438}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of PPLT over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for PPLT starting 2024-07-29 was +1.01%, which classifies as 'positive'.


MTUM over past 60 days: cumulative return -3.7%, annualized vol 13.0%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: MTUM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=139.98, end=134.77, cumulative_return=-3.7%, annualized_volatility=13.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 307.696, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23033.78, 't10y2y_spread': -0.34, 't10y3m_spread': -0.81, 'breakeven_10y': 2.36, 'hy_oas': 4.26, 'ig_oas': 1.28, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.31, 'vix': 19.780000686645508}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-10-03] ["Russian court rejects Apple appeal against abuse of dominant market position - RIA Oct 3 (Reuters) - A Russian court rejected Apple's AAPL.O appeal against the alleged abuse of its dominant market position in terms of in-app payments, for which it was fined 1.2 billion roubles ($12.1 million) in January, the RIA news agency reported on Tuesday. Apple did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment. Russia's federal anti-monopoly service (FAS) fined Apple in January over what it said was the U.S. company's abuse of its dominant market position. In a statement, the regulator said it had previously found that Apple forced Russian developers to use Apple's payment services with the iOS App Store, in violation of Russia's competition rules. The FAS's decision entered legal force in May after it was approved by a Moscow court, RIA reported. Apple was appealing both the decision and the fine. The rouble has depreciated sharply since January. In dollar terms, the fine has decreased by more than $5 million since then. ($1 = 99.1990 roubles) (Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Mark Trevelyan) The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.", "This Is One of the Top-Rated and Most-Upgraded Stocks Another week has passed with shares of Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) outperforming the overall market, closing the prior week up 0.38% while the overall market was down almost 1%. META recently made headlines after the company hosted its annual Connect product conference. It has continued to buck the overall market trend and remain firmly above its critical support. The company also finds itself on the Top-Rated Stocks list, a list of 100 companies that have received the highest average rating among equities research analysts in the last twelve months, and is one of the Most-Upgraded Stocks, a list of companies that have been upgraded by Wall Street analysts most frequently during the previous 90 days. So, as the fourth quarter begins, could META be a top pick and smart investment choice? Let's take a closer look at the news and technical setup. META Announces Product Updates and Launch During Connect Meta Connect 2023 spotlighted the Meta Quest 3, which received significant attention in the tech community. This new mixed-reality device aims to compete with Apple's Vision Pro headset, capitalizing on Apple's reported production delays. Alongside this announcement, Meta unveiled a range of innovations, including the well-received Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, the Emu text-to-image model, Meta AI for chatbots, and AI Studio for custom chatbot development. These developments underscore Meta's commitment to making metaverse technology affordable and accessible. Mark Zuckerberg, Meta's CEO, emphasized this aspect during his keynote address, highlighting the importance of inclusivity as the company works toward its metaverse ambitions. Analysts are Bullish on META A host of

Predict whether the return of MTUM over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for MTUM starting 2023-10-04 was +2.50%, which classifies as 'positive'.


ADA-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -13.8%, annualized vol 59.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ADA-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.30, end=0.26, cumulative_return=-13.8%, annualized_volatility=59.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 306.082, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.76, 't10y3m_spread': -1.47, 'breakeven_10y': 2.24, 'hy_oas': 3.85, 'ig_oas': 1.22, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.18, 'vix': 13.56999969482422}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-08-31]

Predict whether the return of ADA-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ADA-USD starting 2023-09-01 was -4.02%, which classifies as 'negative'.


ADA-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +56.6%, annualized vol 42.9%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ADA-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.24, end=0.38, cumulative_return=+56.6%, annualized_volatility=42.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 308.148, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23033.78, 't10y2y_spread': -0.47, 't10y3m_spread': -1.12, 'breakeven_10y': 2.26, 'hy_oas': 3.9, 'ig_oas': 1.15, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.29, 'vix': 12.850000381469728}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-11-22]

Predict whether the return of ADA-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ADA-USD starting 2023-11-23 was +66.41%, which classifies as 'positive'.


EFA over past 60 days: cumulative return +5.3%, annualized vol 10.8%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: EFA
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=72.37, end=76.17, cumulative_return=+5.3%, annualized_volatility=10.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.175, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23286.508, 't10y2y_spread': -0.4, 't10y3m_spread': -1.07, 'breakeven_10y': 2.31, 'hy_oas': 3.08, 'ig_oas': 0.89, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.02, 'vix': 12.420000076293944}
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
[SEC 10-Q BLK 2024-05-07] 10-Q --12-31 Q1 0001364742 false http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#OtherAssets http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#OtherAssets http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#NonoperatingIncomeExpense http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#NonoperatingIncomeExpense http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#NonoperatingIncomeExpense http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#NonoperatingIncomeExpense 2024-06 2024-03 2024-06 2024-03 http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#GainLossOnInvestments http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#GainLossOnInvestments http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense 2028-03-31 9 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 P2Y 0 years 0 years 2027-05-30 2028-05-30 2029-05-30 2027-05-30 2028-05-30 2029-05-30 0001364742 us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel1Member us-gaap:PrivateEquityFundsMember us-gaap:FairValueMeasurementsRecurringMember 2024-03-31 0001364742 us-gaap:EquitySecuritiesMember blk:InvestmentInNAVMember 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2023-03-31 0001364742 us-gaap:EquitySecuritiesMember blk:ConsolidatedVotingRightsEntitiesMember 2024-03-31 0001364742 us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel2Member us-gaap:FairValueMeasurementsRecurringMember 2024-03-31 0001364742 us-gaap:EquitySecuritiesMember us-gaap:VariableInterestEntityPrimaryBeneficiaryMember 2024-03-31 0001364742 us-gaap:ForeignExchangeForwardMember 2023-12-31 0001364742 blk:OnePointNineZeroPercentNotesDueTwoThousandThirtyOneMember 2024-03-31 0001364742 blk:EquityFixedIncomeAndMultiAssetMutualFundsMember us-gaap:FairValueMeasurementsRecurringMember 2023-12-31 0001364742 2022-10-01 2022-12-31 0001364742 us-gaap:FairValueMeasurementsRecurringMember us-gaap:PortionAtOtherThanFairValueFairValueDisclosureMember 2024-03-31 0001364742 blk:AlternativeInvestmentsProductsMember us-gaap:InvestmentPerformanceMember 2024-01-01 2024-03-31 0001364742 srt:AmericasMember 2023-12-31 0001364742 us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel1Member us-gaap:FairValueMeasurementsRecurringMember blk:InvestmentsRelatedToDeferredCashCompensationPlansMember 2023-12-31 0001364742 us-gaap:CollateralizedLo [...TRUNCATED...] hat the Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of an additional seven million shares under the Company’s existing share repurchase program, for a total of up to approximately 7.9 million shares of BlackRock common stock. 64   Item 6. Exh ibits Exhibit No.   Description       4.1(1)   Indenture, dated March 14, 2024, among BlackRock Funding, Inc., BlackRock, Inc. and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee.       4.2(1)   First Supplemental Indenture, dated March 14, 2024, among BlackRock Funding, Inc., BlackRock, Inc. and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee.       4.3(1)   Form of Note for the 4.700% Notes due 2029 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       4.4(1)   Form of Note for the 5.000% Notes due 2034 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       4.5(1)   Form of Note for the 5.250% Notes due 2054 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       10.1(2)   Amendment No. 14, dated as of March 12, 2024, by and among BlackRock, Inc., certain of its subsidiaries, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, a swingline lender, an issuing lender, L/C agent and a lender, and the banks and other financial institutions referred to therein.       22.1(3)   Subsidiary Issuer of Guaranteed Securities.       31.1   Section 302 Certification of Chief Executive Officer       31.2   Section 302 Certification of Chief Financial Officer       32.1   Section 906 Certification of Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer       101.INS   Inline XBRL Instance Document – the instance document does not appear in the Interactive Data File because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document       101.SCH   Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema with Embedded Linkbases Document       104   Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL and contained in Exhibit 101)         (1) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 14, 2024. (2) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock's Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 15, 2024. (3) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock's Registration Statement on Form S-3 (Registration No. 333-278583) filed on April 9, 2024. 65   SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.       BLACKROCK, INC.     (Registrant)             By: /s/ Martin S. Small Date: May 7, 2024        Martin S. Small          Senior Managing Director & Chief Financial Officer    (Principal Financial Officer)   66

Predict whether the return of EFA over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for EFA starting 2024-05-17 was -2.62%, which classifies as 'negative'.


XLK over past 60 days: cumulative return +16.6%, annualized vol 18.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLK
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=73.01, end=85.14, cumulative_return=+16.6%, annualized_volatility=18.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.08, 'cpi_yoy': 304.609, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.91, 't10y3m_spread': -1.58, 'breakeven_10y': 2.25, 'hy_oas': 3.99, 'ig_oas': 1.29, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.71, 'vix': 13.56999969482422}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-07-03] ["Unity Software Stock Skyrockets 46% in June as AI Buzz Takes Over What happened Shares of Unity Software (NYSE: U) skyrocketed 46.1% in June, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. The month started off with fireworks from Apple that are relevant to Unity shareholders. And it ended with a bang related to artificial intelligence (AI), Wall Street's favorite subject at the moment. So what To give this story some context, I want to point out that the market had lost a lot of confidence in Unity Software stock. When they first went public, shares regularly traded above a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 30. By comparison, they traded below a P/S of 7 at the start of June. That's still high in absolute terms. But in relative terms, this valuation was more than 80% below where it had routinely traded. Unity's own revenue growth was ample reason for the market's pessimism. And even though its growth has since rebounded, as the chart below shows, this is largely due to an acquisition. Its organic growth is still challenged. U Revenue (quarterly YoY growth) data by YCharts; YoY = year over year. But on June 5, Apple announced its upcoming Vision Pro headset, and this has reinvigorated investors' excitement for Unity's potential. Apple is looking for apps to be built for the headset between now and its launch in 2024. And for this, the company has partnered with Unity. Developers use Unity for building top-notch video games. And Apple has created a software development kit that will allow Unity users to modify their creations for the Vision Pro. Then on June 27, Unity announced a marketplace for AI applications. The marketplace has 10 apps available at launch that can be used in the video game space. And when the company announced this new focus on AI, the market celebrated by pushing the stock higher. So the stock started June with low expectations, but Apple and AI have investors rethinking the long-term potential. Now what When it comes to the AI space, I'm inclined to disregard most news as overhyped clickbait. But with Unity Software stock, I do believe that AI -- specifically generative AI -- could play an important role for the business. Many investors like Unity's potential in virtual reality and the metaverse. Its software creates realistic 3D images, and realism is needed to make these experiences something that consumers actually want. When building digital worlds, the problem is how big these need to be -- it's labor intensive for developers. And the workload is probably too much to physically handle at scale, which is where generative AI can help. Much of what Unity is doing involves generative AI, which I believe is just what the space needs. So as virtual reality and the metaverse grow -- perhaps thanks to Apple's Vision Pro headset -- the use cases for Unity Software could open up as well. That's good reason for optimism for a stock that's still down almost 80% from its all-time high. 10 stocks we like better than Unit

Predict whether the return of XLK over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLK starting 2023-07-05 was +0.64%, which classifies as 'flat'.


VNQ over past 60 days: cumulative return +17.4%, annualized vol 21.6%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: VNQ
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=68.44, end=80.31, cumulative_return=+17.4%, annualized_volatility=21.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 308.741, 'unemployment': 3.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23033.78, 't10y2y_spread': -0.41, 't10y3m_spread': -1.54, 'breakeven_10y': 2.19, 'hy_oas': 3.39, 'ig_oas': 1.07, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.67, 'vix': 13.029999732971191}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of VNQ over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for VNQ starting 2023-12-25 was -3.60%, which classifies as 'negative'.


XLK over past 60 days: cumulative return +15.8%, annualized vol 15.8%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLK
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=82.02, end=94.99, cumulative_return=+15.8%, annualized_volatility=15.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 309.698, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23082.119, 't10y2y_spread': -0.15, 't10y3m_spread': -1.38, 'breakeven_10y': 2.3, 'hy_oas': 3.58, 'ig_oas': 1.02, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.66, 'vix': 13.84000015258789}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2024-01-09] ["Is iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) a Strong ETF Right Now? The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) was launched on 07/10/2001, and is a smart beta exchange traded fund designed to offer broad exposure to the Technology ETFs category of the market. What Are Smart Beta ETFs? The ETF industry has long been dominated by products based on market cap weighted indexes, a strategy created to reflect the market or a particular market segment. Market cap weighted indexes offer a low-cost, convenient, and transparent way of replicating market returns, and are a good option for investors who believe in market efficiency. However, some investors believe in the possibility of beating the market through exceptional stock selection, and choose a different type of fund that tracks non-cap weighted strategies: smart beta. Based on specific fundamental characteristics, or a combination of such, these indexes attempt to pick stocks that have a better chance of risk-return performance. The smart beta space gives investors many different choices, from equal-weighting, one of the simplest strategies, to more complicated ones like fundamental and volatility/momentum based weighting. However, not all of these methodologies have been able to deliver remarkable returns. Fund Sponsor & Index The fund is managed by Blackrock, and has been able to amass over $9.93 billion, which makes it one of the largest ETFs in the Technology ETFs. SOXX, before fees and expenses, seeks to match the performance of the PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index. The ICE Semiconductor Index measures the performance of U.S. traded securities of companies engaged in the semiconductor business. Cost & Other Expenses Investors should also pay attention to an ETF's expense ratio. Lower cost products will produce better results than those with a higher cost, assuming all other metrics remain the same. Operating expenses on an annual basis are 0.35% for SOXX, making it one of the least expensive products in the space. It's 12-month trailing dividend yield comes in at 0.81%. Sector Exposure and Top Holdings Even though ETFs offer diversified exposure that minimizes single stock risk, investors should also look at the actual holdings inside the fund. Luckily, most ETFs are very transparent products that disclose their holdings on a daily basis. Representing 100% of the portfolio, the fund has heaviest allocation to the Information Technology sector. Taking into account individual holdings, Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) accounts for about 9.48% of the fund's total assets, followed by Broadcom Inc (AVGO) and Intel Corporation Corp (INTC). SOXX's top 10 holdings account for about 59.63% of its total assets under management. Performance and Risk So far this year, SOXX has lost about -2.88%, and was up about 55.09% in the last one year (as of 01/09/2024). During this past 52-week period, the fund has traded between $373.83 and $581.45. The ETF has a beta of 1.37 and standard deviation of 34.63% for the trailin

Predict whether the return of XLK over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLK starting 2024-01-17 was +6.61%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XLV over past 60 days: cumulative return -2.0%, annualized vol 10.2%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=140.77, end=137.94, cumulative_return=-2.0%, annualized_volatility=10.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.175, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23286.508, 't10y2y_spread': -0.4, 't10y3m_spread': -0.92, 'breakeven_10y': 2.34, 'hy_oas': 3.09, 'ig_oas': 0.88, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.94, 'vix': 12.920000076293944}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
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blk:InvestmentsRelatedToDeferredCashCompensationPlansMember 2023-12-31 0001364742 us-gaap:CollateralizedLo [...TRUNCATED...] hat the Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of an additional seven million shares under the Company’s existing share repurchase program, for a total of up to approximately 7.9 million shares of BlackRock common stock. 64   Item 6. Exh ibits Exhibit No.   Description       4.1(1)   Indenture, dated March 14, 2024, among BlackRock Funding, Inc., BlackRock, Inc. and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee.       4.2(1)   First Supplemental Indenture, dated March 14, 2024, among BlackRock Funding, Inc., BlackRock, Inc. and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee.       4.3(1)   Form of Note for the 4.700% Notes due 2029 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       4.4(1)   Form of Note for the 5.000% Notes due 2034 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       4.5(1)   Form of Note for the 5.250% Notes due 2054 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       10.1(2)   Amendment No. 14, dated as of March 12, 2024, by and among BlackRock, Inc., certain of its subsidiaries, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, a swingline lender, an issuing lender, L/C agent and a lender, and the banks and other financial institutions referred to therein.       22.1(3)   Subsidiary Issuer of Guaranteed Securities.       31.1   Section 302 Certification of Chief Executive Officer       31.2   Section 302 Certification of Chief Financial Officer       32.1   Section 906 Certification of Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer       101.INS   Inline XBRL Instance Document – the instance document does not appear in the Interactive Data File because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document       101.SCH   Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema with Embedded Linkbases Document       104   Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL and contained in Exhibit 101)         (1) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 14, 2024. (2) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock's Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 15, 2024. (3) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock's Registration Statement on Form S-3 (Registration No. 333-278583) filed on April 9, 2024. 65   SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.       BLACKROCK, INC.     (Registrant)             By: /s/ Martin S. Small Date: May 7, 2024        Martin S. Small          Senior Managing Director & Chief Financial Officer    (Principal Financial Officer)   66

Predict whether the return of XLV over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLV starting 2024-05-29 was +3.36%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XLU over past 60 days: cumulative return -6.4%, annualized vol 19.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLU
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=32.00, end=29.96, cumulative_return=-6.4%, annualized_volatility=19.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.83, 'cpi_yoy': 301.821, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22439.607, 't10y2y_spread': -0.38, 't10y3m_spread': -1.36, 'breakeven_10y': 2.22, 'hy_oas': 5.22, 'ig_oas': 1.54, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.42, 'vix': 21.739999771118164}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-03-24] ["Notable Friday Option Activity: ENPH, AAPL, COST Among the underlying components of the S&P 500 index, we saw noteworthy options trading volume today in Enphase Energy Inc. (Symbol: ENPH), where a total of 37,713 contracts have traded so far, representing approximately 3.8 million underlying shares. That amounts to about 102.2% of ENPH's average daily trading volume over the past month of 3.7 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $195 strike put option expiring March 24, 2023, with 2,408 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 240,800 underlying shares of ENPH. Below is a chart showing ENPH's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $195 strike highlighted in orange: Apple Inc (Symbol: AAPL) saw options trading volume of 655,112 contracts, representing approximately 65.5 million underlying shares or approximately 97.5% of AAPL's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 67.2 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $160 strike call option expiring March 24, 2023, with 74,927 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 7.5 million underlying shares of AAPL. Below is a chart showing AAPL's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $160 strike highlighted in orange: And Costco Wholesale Corp (Symbol: COST) saw options trading volume of 19,640 contracts, representing approximately 2.0 million underlying shares or approximately 89% of COST's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 2.2 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $495 strike call option expiring March 24, 2023, with 1,539 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 153,900 underlying shares of COST. Below is a chart showing COST's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $495 strike highlighted in orange: For the various different available expirations for ENPH options, AAPL options, or COST options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com. Today's Most Active Call & Put Options of the S&P 500 \u00bb Also see: \u0095 ONCS Insider Buying \u0095 MDP Stock Predictions \u0095 WTI Stock Predictions The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.", "Wall St Week Ahead-Strength in megacap stocks masks broader U.S. market woes By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) - Investors are relying on an old strategy to navigate the current tumult in asset prices: buying shares of the massive U.S. companies that led markets higher for years. Shares of the top five companies by market value -- Apple AAPL.O, Microsoft MSFT.O, Alphabet GOOGL.O, Amazon AMZN.O and Nvidia NVDA.O -- have gained between 4.5% and 12% since March 8, when troubles at Silicon Valley Bank set off banking system worries. In that period, the S&P 500 has fallen 0.5%. Megagaps are attracting bets because of strong balance sheets, robust profit margins and business models expected to hold up better if recession hits,

Predict whether the return of XLU over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLU starting 2023-03-27 was +3.79%, which classifies as 'positive'.


ETH-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -10.1%, annualized vol 28.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ETH-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=1924.57, end=1729.73, cumulative_return=-10.1%, annualized_volatility=28.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 306.082, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.75, 't10y3m_spread': -1.44, 'breakeven_10y': 2.29, 'hy_oas': 3.87, 'ig_oas': 1.22, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.23, 'vix': 14.449999809265137}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-08-29]

Predict whether the return of ETH-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ETH-USD starting 2023-08-30 was -4.82%, which classifies as 'negative'.


XLB over past 60 days: cumulative return +19.5%, annualized vol 23.6%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=32.59, end=38.95, cumulative_return=+19.5%, annualized_volatility=23.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 300.42, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22439.607, 't10y2y_spread': -0.66, 't10y3m_spread': -1.18, 'breakeven_10y': 2.23, 'hy_oas': 4.3, 'ig_oas': 1.34, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.48, 'vix': 21.09000015258789}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-01-11] ["Is Apple a Screaming Buy Right Now? For much of 2022, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) resisted the market sell-off, but eventually, it succumbed. The tech giant finished the year down 27%, ahead of the Nasdaq but behind the S&P 500. Despite its retreat, the iPhone maker delivered a better performance than most of its big tech peers, reporting revenue growth of 8% for the quarter and the year, even as it faced stiff headwinds from a stronger dollar. Earnings per share growth was slower, up in the fiscal fourth quarter from $1.24 to $1.29, as the company faced inflationary pressure in areas like wages and logistics. However, after the sell-off, Apple stock looks surprisingly well priced. It currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21, the cheapest it has been since the pandemic started, only slightly more expensive than that of the S&P 500 at 20.2. Is Apple a screaming buy? Let's take a look at the debate. Image source: Getty Images. Why Apple stock has fallen There isn't anything particularly alarming in Apple's recent results, but there are a number of reasons why the stock has tumbled over the last few months. First, the market is increasingly betting on a recession this year as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates. As a seller of higher-end discretionary tech hardware, Apple is at risk of a recession, which would lead consumers to spend less on discretionary products. Even if they needed a new smartphone or computer, they could trade down to a cheaper Apple model or buy one from another company altogether. Second, Apple has faced a number of challenges in its manufacturing in China. The company said in November that its iPhone factory in Zhengzhou was operating at significantly limited capacity, meaning it expected shipments of its iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max to be lower in the fiscal first quarter than originally anticipated. The company did say that demand for those phones remains strong. The COVID-19 lockdowns that caused those delays have since ended, so the problem should be temporary. However, Apple also announced plans to move more production out of China. Finally, the company's revenue approached $400 billion in fiscal 2022, and its growth is expected to be moderate. On such a large base of revenue, it will be difficult to put up 20% revenue growth. However, the valuation seems to reflect the dialed-down growth expectations. The good news With an earnings valuation on par with the S&P 500, Apple doesn't need to put up high growth numbers in order to justify its valuation. In fact, the company could easily grow earnings per share by double digits with just modest revenue and share buybacks. Apple has been committed to share buybacks, having reduced shares outstanding by more than 20% over the last five years. With the stock price down, it could get more aggressive with repurchases. The company's economic moat has also never looked as strong. Apple has gained market share on Android and now claims a majority of market share

Predict whether the return of XLB over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLB starting 2023-01-12 was -1.50%, which classifies as 'negative'.


XRP-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -9.4%, annualized vol 46.8%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XRP-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.55, end=0.50, cumulative_return=-9.4%, annualized_volatility=46.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.044, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23286.508, 't10y2y_spread': -0.4, 't10y3m_spread': -1.05, 'breakeven_10y': 2.31, 'hy_oas': 3.15, 'ig_oas': 0.9, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.99, 'vix': 12.739999771118164}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of XRP-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XRP-USD starting 2024-06-11 was +0.87%, which classifies as 'flat'.