EEM over past 60 days: cumulative return +6.0%, annualized vol 14.8%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: EEM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=36.74, end=38.93, cumulative_return=+6.0%, annualized_volatility=14.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 312.345, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23082.119, 't10y2y_spread': -0.39, 't10y3m_spread': -1.37, 'breakeven_10y': 2.28, 'hy_oas': 3.26, 'ig_oas': 0.99, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.88, 'vix': 14.739999771118164}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[SEC 10-K UNH 2024-02-28] unh-20231231 false 2023 FY 0000731766 12/31 10 50 http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#OtherLiabilities P4Y P4Y P5Y P3Y 1/1/2026 1/1/2042 1/1/2024 1/1/2043 0.038 0.046 0.019 0.043 0.007 0.012 0.297 0.306 0.306 0.308 0.292 0.298 0.013 0.015 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.015 4.605251141552511 4.702283105022831 4.802054794520548 5.502739726027397 4.202283105022831 5.502739726027397 1.2993150684931507 0000731766 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000731766 2023-06-30 iso4217:USD 0000731766 2024-01-31 xbrli:shares 0000731766 2023-12-31 0000731766 2022-12-31 iso4217:USD xbrli:shares 0000731766 2022-01-01 2022-12-31 0000731766 2021-01-01 2021-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ProductMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ProductMember 2022-01-01 2022-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ProductMember 2021-01-01 2021-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ServiceMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ServiceMember 2022-01-01 2022-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ServiceMember 2021-01-01 2021-12-31 0000731766 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unh:ProductsandservicesMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 unh:ProductsandservicesMember 2022-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:HealthInsuranceProductLineMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 unh:PharmaceuticalManufacturerRebatesReceivableMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 unh:PharmaceuticalManufacturerRebatesReceivableMember 2022-12-31 0000731766 unh:UsefulLifeMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:FurnitureAndFixturesMember srt:MinimumMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 srt:MaximumMember us-gaap:FurnitureAndFixturesMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:BuildingMember srt:MinimumMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 srt:MaximumMember us-gaap:BuildingMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 unh:CapitalizedsoftwareMember srt:MinimumMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 srt:MaximumMember unh:CapitalizedsoftwareMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:OtherCurrentLiabilitiesMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:OtherCurrentLiabilitiesMember 2022-12-31 0000731766 unh:RedeemableNoncontrollingInterestsMember 2022-12-31 0000731766 unh:RedeemableNoncontrollingInterestsMember 2021-12-31 0000731766 unh:RedeemableNoncontrollingInterestsMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000731766 unh:RedeemableNoncontrollingInterestsMember 2022-01-01 2022-12-31 0000731766 unh:RedeemableNoncontrollingInterestsMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:RestrictedStockMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000731766 unh:StockOptionsandSARsMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:USTreasuryAndGovernmentMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:USStatesAndPoliticalSubdivisionsMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:CorporateDebtSecuritiesMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:MortgageBackedSecuritiesIssuedByUSGovernmentSponsoredEnterprisesMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:MortgageBackedSecuritiesIssuedByPrivateEnterprisesMember 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:USTreasuryAndGovernmentMember 2022-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:USStatesAndPoliticalSubdivisionsMember 2022-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:CorporateDebtSecuritiesMember 2022-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:MortgageBackedSecuritiesIssuedByUSGovernmentSponsoredEnterprisesMember 2022-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:MortgageBackedSecuritiesIssuedByPrivateEnt [...TRUNCATED...] d long-term debt can be found in Note 8 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” Long-term debt obligations of the parent company do not include other financing obligations at subsidiaries which totaled $ 1.1 billion and $ 0.9 billion at December 31, 2023 and 2022. Maturities of short-term borrowings and long-term debt for the years ending December 31 are as follows: (in millions) 2024 $ 4,088   2025 3,050   2026 2,500   2027 2,925   2028 3,000   Thereafter 47,002   UnitedHealth Group’s parent company had notes payable to subsidiaries of $ 9.9 billion and $ 8.7 billion as of December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively, which included on-demand features. 4. Commitments and Contingencies Certain regulated subsidiaries are guaranteed by UnitedHealth Group’s parent company in the event of insolvency. UnitedHealth Group’s parent company also provides guarantees related to its service level under certain contracts. None of the amounts accrued, paid or charged to income for service level guarantees were material as of December 31, 2023, 2022 or 2021. For a summary of commitments and contingencies, see Note 12 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” ITEM  16.    FORM 10-K SUMMARY None. 79 Table of Contents SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized. Dated: February 28, 2024   UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED By /s/    A NDREW W ITTY   Andrew Witty Chief Executive Officer Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, this report has been signed below by the following persons on behalf of the registrant and in the capacities and on the dates indicated.   Signature Title Date /s/ A NDREW W ITTY Director and Chief Executive Officer (principal executive officer) February 28, 2024 Andrew Witty /s/ J OHN R EX Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (principal financial officer) February 28, 2024 John Rex /s/ T HOMAS R OOS Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer (principal accounting officer) February 28, 2024 Thomas Roos * Director February 28, 2024 Charles Baker * Director February 28, 2024 Timothy Flynn * Director February 28, 2024 Paul Garcia * Director February 28, 2024 Kristen Gil * Director February 28, 2024 Stephen Hemsley * Director February 28, 2024 Michele Hooper * Director February 28, 2024 F. William McNabb III * Director February 28, 2024 Valerie Montgomery Rice, M.D. * Director February 28, 2024 John Noseworthy, M.D.   *By /s/ R UPERT B ONDY   Rupert Bondy As Attorney-in-Fact 80

Predict whether the return of EEM over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for EEM starting 2024-03-11 was +0.78%, which classifies as 'flat'.


USMV over past 60 days: cumulative return -2.4%, annualized vol 12.6%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: USMV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=68.61, end=66.97, cumulative_return=-2.4%, annualized_volatility=12.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.58, 'cpi_yoy': 301.821, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22439.607, 't10y2y_spread': -0.45, 't10y3m_spread': -1.34, 'breakeven_10y': 2.14, 'hy_oas': 5.15, 'ig_oas': 1.62, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.6, 'vix': 24.14999961853028}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-03-20] ["Kremlin tells officials to stop using iPhones - Kommersant newspaper Adds Kremlin quote, recasts lead MOSCOW, March 20 (Reuters) - The Kremlin told officials involved in preparations for Russia's 2024 presidential election to stop using Apple AAPL.O iPhones because of concerns that the devices are vulnerable to Western intelligence agencies, the Kommersant newspaper reported. At a Kremlin-organised seminar for officials involved in domestic politics, Sergei Kiriyenko, first deputy head of the presidential administration, told officials to change their phones by April 1, Kommersant said, citing unidentified sources. \"It's all over for the iPhone: either throw it away or give it to the children,\" Kommersant quoted one of the participants of the meeting as saying. \"Everyone will have to do it in March.\" When asked about the issue on Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he could not confirm the report. \"Smartphones should not be used for official business,\" Peskov told reporters. \"Any smartphone has a fairly transparent mechanism, no matter what operating system it has \u2013 Android or iOS. Naturally, they are not used for official purposes.\" Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Kremlin may provide other devices with different operating systems to replace the iPhones, Kommersant said, adding that the order to cease using iPhones had been directed at those involved in domestic politics - for which Kiriyenko is responsible. President Vladimir Putin has always said he has no smartphone, though Peskov has said Putin does use the Internet from time to time. Shortly after Russia sent its troops into Ukraine last year, U.S. and British spies claimed a scoop by uncovering - and going public with - intelligence that Putin was planning to invade. It is unclear how the spies obtained such intelligence. (Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Gareth Jones) ((guy.faulconbridge@thomsonreuters.com; 07825218698;)) The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.", "Apple (AAPL) Outpaces Stock Market Gains: What You Should Know Apple (AAPL) closed at $157.40 in the latest trading session, marking a +1.55% move from the prior day. This move outpaced the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.89%. At the same time, the Dow added 1.2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.68%. Coming into today, shares of the maker of iPhones, iPads and other products had gained 1.61% in the past month. In that same time, the Computer and Technology sector gained 2.42%, while the S&P 500 lost 3.9%. Investors will be hoping for strength from Apple as it approaches its next earnings release. On that day, Apple is projected to report earnings of $1.44 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 5.26%. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $93.39 billion, down 4% from the year-ago period. Looking at the ful

Predict whether the return of USMV over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for USMV starting 2023-03-21 was +4.30%, which classifies as 'positive'.


SOL-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +12.8%, annualized vol 75.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: SOL-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=20.08, end=22.64, cumulative_return=+12.8%, annualized_volatility=75.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 306.082, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.7, 't10y3m_spread': -1.34, 'breakeven_10y': 2.37, 'hy_oas': 3.98, 'ig_oas': 1.22, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.9, 'vix': 15.920000076293944}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-08-03]

Predict whether the return of SOL-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for SOL-USD starting 2023-08-04 was -10.53%, which classifies as 'negative'.


XLU over past 60 days: cumulative return -0.5%, annualized vol 14.6%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLU
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=29.40, end=29.26, cumulative_return=-0.5%, annualized_volatility=14.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 306.082, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.78, 't10y3m_spread': -1.36, 'breakeven_10y': 2.33, 'hy_oas': 3.9, 'ig_oas': 1.23, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.23, 'vix': 15.68000030517578}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-08-25] ["After Hours Most Active for Aug 25, 2023 : AAPL, VHNA, QQQ, JNJ, MSFT, TNET, CSX, SWN, GOOG, PFE, NEE, XOM The NASDAQ 100 After Hours Indicator is down -7.75 to 14,934.08. The total After hours volume is currently 60,938,515 shares traded. The following are the most active stocks for the after hours session: Apple Inc. (AAPL) is -0.1 at $178.51, with 4,158,333 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 5 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Sep 2023. The consensus EPS forecast is $1.38. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for AAPL is in the \"buy range\". Vahanna Tech Edge Acquisition I Corp. (VHNA) is +1.13 at $10.78, with 2,686,719 shares traded. Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is -0.03 at $363.99, with 2,155,255 shares traded. This represents a 43.16% increase from its 52 Week Low. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is +0.16 at $166.41, with 1,768,190 shares traded. JNJ's current last sale is 90.44% of the target price of $184. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is -0.28 at $322.70, with 1,758,809 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 12 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Sep 2023. The consensus EPS forecast is $2.65. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for MSFT is in the \"buy range\". TriNet Group, Inc. (TNET) is unchanged at $106.06, with 1,657,714 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 3 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Sep 2023. The consensus EPS forecast is $1.2. TNET's current last sale is 93.44% of the target price of $113.5. CSX Corporation (CSX) is unchanged at $30.91, with 1,500,775 shares traded. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for CSX is in the \"buy range\". Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) is unchanged at $6.47, with 1,331,729 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 6 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Dec 2023. The consensus EPS forecast is $0.16. SWN's current last sale is 80.88% of the target price of $8. Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is -0.11 at $130.58, with 1,250,516 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 6 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Sep 2023. The consensus EPS forecast is $1.45. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for GOOG is in the \"buy range\". Pfizer, Inc. (PFE) is +0.01 at $36.39, with 1,125,794 shares traded. PFE's current last sale is 81.78% of the target price of $44.5. NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) is unchanged at $67.96, with 898,026 shares traded. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for NEE is in the \"buy range\". Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is -0.14 at $108.11, with 892,337 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 4 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Dec 2023. The consensus EPS forecast is $2.09. XOM's current last sale is 86.49% of the targe

Predict whether the return of XLU over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLU starting 2023-08-28 was -4.72%, which classifies as 'negative'.


BTC-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +36.8%, annualized vol 31.9%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: BTC-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=16604.46, end=22720.42, cumulative_return=+36.8%, annualized_volatility=31.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 300.42, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22439.607, 't10y2y_spread': -0.66, 't10y3m_spread': -1.24, 'breakeven_10y': 2.23, 'hy_oas': 4.35, 'ig_oas': 1.29, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.15, 'vix': 19.850000381469727}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-01-22]

Predict whether the return of BTC-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for BTC-USD starting 2023-01-23 was -4.91%, which classifies as 'negative'.


XLI over past 60 days: cumulative return -0.5%, annualized vol 14.6%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=102.29, end=101.81, cumulative_return=-0.5%, annualized_volatility=14.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 308.148, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23033.78, 't10y2y_spread': -0.44, 't10y3m_spread': -1.06, 'breakeven_10y': 2.28, 'hy_oas': 3.99, 'ig_oas': 1.2, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.44, 'vix': 13.800000190734863}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-11-17] ["After Hours Most Active for Nov 17, 2023 : MMM, QQQ, MATV, AAPL, NU, VCSH, MSFT, STRO, AMZN, KEY, VZ, BAC The NASDAQ 100 After Hours Indicator is down -17.07 to 15,820.92. The total After hours volume is currently 90,330,083 shares traded. The following are the most active stocks for the after hours session: 3M Company (MMM) is unchanged at $95.34, with 4,398,341 shares traded. MMM's current last sale is 90.37% of the target price of $105.5. Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is -0.27 at $385.77, with 3,562,042 shares traded. This represents a 48.53% increase from its 52 Week Low. Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV) is unchanged at $13.71, with 3,402,922 shares traded. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for MATV is in the \"strong buy range\". Apple Inc. (AAPL) is +0.09 at $189.78, with 3,138,577 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 4 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Mar 2024. The consensus EPS forecast is $1.59. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for AAPL is in the \"buy range\". Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) is unchanged at $8.07, with 2,492,283 shares traded. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for NU is in the \"buy range\". Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCSH) is unchanged at $75.77, with 2,294,246 shares traded. This represents a 1.8% increase from its 52 Week Low. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is -1.59 at $368.26, with 2,231,678 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 13 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Dec 2023. The consensus EPS forecast is $2.75. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for MSFT is in the \"buy range\". Sutro Biopharma, Inc. (STRO) is unchanged at $2.69, with 1,857,662 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 3 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Dec 2023. The consensus EPS forecast is $-0.81. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for STRO is in the \"buy range\". Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is -0.09 at $145.09, with 1,804,116 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 12 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Dec 2023. The consensus EPS forecast is $0.77. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for AMZN is in the \"buy range\". KeyCorp (KEY) is -0.02 at $12.30, with 1,493,925 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 4 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Mar 2024. The consensus EPS forecast is $0.26. KEY's current last sale is 94.62% of the target price of $13. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) is +0.04 at $36.27, with 1,489,000 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 3 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Sep 2024. The consensus EPS forecast is $1.17. VZ's current last sale is 88.46% of the target price of $41. Bank of America Corporation (BAC) is -0.

Predict whether the return of XLI over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLI starting 2023-11-20 was +5.78%, which classifies as 'positive'.


QUAL over past 60 days: cumulative return +13.8%, annualized vol 10.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: QUAL
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=132.55, end=150.88, cumulative_return=+13.8%, annualized_volatility=10.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 310.967, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23082.119, 't10y2y_spread': -0.33, 't10y3m_spread': -1.4, 'breakeven_10y': 2.21, 'hy_oas': 3.47, 'ig_oas': 1.02, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.63, 'vix': 13.850000381469728}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[SEC 10-K AMZN 2024-02-02] amzn-20231231 false 2023 FY 0001018724 http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#OtherAssetsNoncurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#OtherAssetsNoncurrent P3Y P1Y P1Y http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#PropertyPlantAndEquipmentAndFinanceLeaseRightOfUseAssetAfterAccumulatedDepreciationAndAmortization http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#PropertyPlantAndEquipmentAndFinanceLeaseRightOfUseAssetAfterAccumulatedDepreciationAndAmortization http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent http://www.amazon.com/20231231#LeaseLiabilityNoncurrent http://www.amazon.com/20231231#LeaseLiabilityNoncurrent http://www.amazon.com/20231231#LeaseLiabilityNoncurrent http://www.amazon.com/20231231#LeaseLiabilityNoncurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent 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amzn:VendorAccountsReceivableMember 2023-12-31 0001018724 us-gaap:LoansReceivableMember 2022-12-31 0001018724 us-gaap:LoansReceivableMember 2023-12-31 00 [...TRUNCATED...] tents 32.2 Certification of Brian T. Olsavsky, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Amazon.com, Inc., pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350. 97.1 Amazon.com, Inc. Clawback Policy. 101 The following financial statements from the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, formatted in Inline XBRL: (i) Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows, (ii) Consolidated Statements of Operations, (iii) Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss), (iv) Consolidated Balance Sheets, (v) Consolidated Statements of Stockholders’ Equity, and (vi) Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements, tagged as blocks of text and including detailed tags. As permitted by Item 601(b)(4)(iii)(A) of Regulation S-K, the Company has not filed with this Annual Report on Form 10-K certain instruments defining the rights of holders of long-term debt of the Company and its subsidiaries because the total amount of securities authorized thereunder does not exceed 10 percent of the total assets of the Company and its subsidiaries on a consolidated basis. The Company agrees to furnish a copy of such agreements to the Commission upon request. 104 The cover page from the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, formatted in Inline XBRL (included as Exhibit 101). __________________ †    Executive Compensation Plan or Agreement. Item 16. Form 10-K Summary None. 77 Table of Contents SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this Report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized, as of February 1, 2024.   AMAZON.COM, INC. By: /s/ Andrew R. Jassy Andrew R. Jassy President and Chief Executive Officer Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, this Report has been signed below by the following persons on behalf of the registrant and in the capacities indicated as of February 1, 2024.   Signature Title /s/ Andrew R. Jassy Andrew R. Jassy President and Chief Executive Officer (Principal Executive Officer) and Director /s/ Brian T. Olsavsky Brian T. Olsavsky Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (Principal Financial Officer) /s/ Shelley L. Reynolds Shelley L. Reynolds Vice President, Worldwide Controller (Principal Accounting Officer) /s/ Jeffrey P. Bezos Jeffrey P. Bezos Executive Chair /s/ Keith B. Alexander Keith B. Alexander Director /s/ Edith W. Cooper Edith W. Cooper Director /s/ Jamie S. Gorelick Jamie S. Gorelick Director /s/ Daniel P. Huttenlocher Daniel P. Huttenlocher Director /s/ Judith A. McGrath Judith A. McGrath Director /s/ Indra K. Nooyi Indra K. Nooyi Director /s/ Jonathan J. Rubinstein Jonathan J. Rubinstein Director /s/ Brad D. Smith Brad D. Smith Director /s/ Patricia Q. Stonesifer Patricia Q. Stonesifer Director /s/ Wendell P. Weeks Wendell P. Weeks Director 78

Predict whether the return of QUAL over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for QUAL starting 2024-02-05 was +4.84%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XLI over past 60 days: cumulative return +6.2%, annualized vol 10.8%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: XLI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=115.09, end=122.19, cumulative_return=+6.2%, annualized_volatility=10.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.175, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23286.508, 't10y2y_spread': -0.37, 't10y3m_spread': -0.97, 'breakeven_10y': 2.34, 'hy_oas': 3.12, 'ig_oas': 0.89, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.09, 'vix': 12.550000190734863}
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
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blk:InvestmentsRelatedToDeferredCashCompensationPlansMember 2023-12-31 0001364742 us-gaap:CollateralizedLo [...TRUNCATED...] hat the Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of an additional seven million shares under the Company’s existing share repurchase program, for a total of up to approximately 7.9 million shares of BlackRock common stock. 64   Item 6. Exh ibits Exhibit No.   Description       4.1(1)   Indenture, dated March 14, 2024, among BlackRock Funding, Inc., BlackRock, Inc. and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee.       4.2(1)   First Supplemental Indenture, dated March 14, 2024, among BlackRock Funding, Inc., BlackRock, Inc. and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee.       4.3(1)   Form of Note for the 4.700% Notes due 2029 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       4.4(1)   Form of Note for the 5.000% Notes due 2034 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       4.5(1)   Form of Note for the 5.250% Notes due 2054 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       10.1(2)   Amendment No. 14, dated as of March 12, 2024, by and among BlackRock, Inc., certain of its subsidiaries, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, a swingline lender, an issuing lender, L/C agent and a lender, and the banks and other financial institutions referred to therein.       22.1(3)   Subsidiary Issuer of Guaranteed Securities.       31.1   Section 302 Certification of Chief Executive Officer       31.2   Section 302 Certification of Chief Financial Officer       32.1   Section 906 Certification of Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer       101.INS   Inline XBRL Instance Document – the instance document does not appear in the Interactive Data File because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document       101.SCH   Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema with Embedded Linkbases Document       104   Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL and contained in Exhibit 101)         (1) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 14, 2024. (2) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock's Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 15, 2024. (3) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock's Registration Statement on Form S-3 (Registration No. 333-278583) filed on April 9, 2024. 65   SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.       BLACKROCK, INC.     (Registrant)             By: /s/ Martin S. Small Date: May 7, 2024        Martin S. Small          Senior Managing Director & Chief Financial Officer    (Principal Financial Officer)   66

Predict whether the return of XLI over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLI starting 2024-05-13 was -1.58%, which classifies as 'negative'.


XLP over past 60 days: cumulative return -0.7%, annualized vol 11.6%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLP
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=66.38, end=65.90, cumulative_return=-0.7%, annualized_volatility=11.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 308.148, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23033.78, 't10y2y_spread': -0.39, 't10y3m_spread': -1.13, 'breakeven_10y': 2.22, 'hy_oas': 3.9, 'ig_oas': 1.14, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.29, 'vix': 12.6899995803833}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-11-28] ["AAPL Quantitative Stock Analysis Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for APPLE INC (AAPL). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, AAPL rates highest using our Twin Momentum Investor model based on the published strategy of Dashan Huang. This momentum model looks for a combination of fundamental momentum and price momentum. APPLE INC (AAPL) is a large-cap growth stock in the Communications Equipment industry. The rating using this strategy is 94% based on the firm\u2019s underlying fundamentals and the stock\u2019s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest. The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria. FUNDAMENTAL MOMENTUM: PASS TWELVE MINUS ONE MOMENTUM: PASS FINAL RANK: PASS Detailed Analysis of APPLE INC AAPL Guru Analysis AAPL Fundamental Analysis More Information on Dashan Huang Dashan Huang Portfolio About Dashan Huang: Dashan Huang is an Assistant Professor of Finance at the Lee Kong Chian School of Business at Singapore Management University. His paper \"Twin Momentum\" looked at combining traditional price momentum with improving fundamentals to generate market outperformance. In the paper, he identified seven fundamental variables (earnings, return on equity, return on assets, accrual operating profitability to equity, cash operating profitability to assets, gross profit to assets and net payout ratio) that he combined into a single fundamental momentum measure. He showed that stocks in the top 20% of the universe according to that measure outperformed the market going forward. When he combined that measure with price momentum, he was able to double its outperformance. Additional Research Links Top NASDAQ 100 Stocks Top Technology Stocks Top Large-Cap Growth Stocks High Momentum Stocks High Insider Ownership Stocks About Validea: Validea is aninvestment researchservice that follows the published strategies of investment legends. Validea offers both stock analysis and model portfolios based on gurus who have outperformed the market over the long-term, including Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and Martin Zweig. For more information about Validea, click here The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.", "Apple to end credit-card partnership with Goldman Sachs - WSJ Adds details on the contract in paragraph 2 Nov 28 (Reuters) - Apple AAPL.O is pulling the plug on its credit-card partnership with Goldman Sachs Group GS.N, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday. The tech giant recently sent a proposal to the Wall Street bank to exit the contract in the next roughly 12

Predict whether the return of XLP over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLP starting 2023-11-29 was +3.74%, which classifies as 'positive'.


QUAL over past 60 days: cumulative return +2.8%, annualized vol 12.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: QUAL
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=158.78, end=163.20, cumulative_return=+2.8%, annualized_volatility=12.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.175, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23286.508, 't10y2y_spread': -0.47, 't10y3m_spread': -1.0, 'breakeven_10y': 2.32, 'hy_oas': 3.11, 'ig_oas': 0.89, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.94, 'vix': 11.93000030517578}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
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blk:InvestmentsRelatedToDeferredCashCompensationPlansMember 2023-12-31 0001364742 us-gaap:CollateralizedLo [...TRUNCATED...] hat the Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of an additional seven million shares under the Company’s existing share repurchase program, for a total of up to approximately 7.9 million shares of BlackRock common stock. 64   Item 6. Exh ibits Exhibit No.   Description       4.1(1)   Indenture, dated March 14, 2024, among BlackRock Funding, Inc., BlackRock, Inc. and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee.       4.2(1)   First Supplemental Indenture, dated March 14, 2024, among BlackRock Funding, Inc., BlackRock, Inc. and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee.       4.3(1)   Form of Note for the 4.700% Notes due 2029 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       4.4(1)   Form of Note for the 5.000% Notes due 2034 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       4.5(1)   Form of Note for the 5.250% Notes due 2054 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       10.1(2)   Amendment No. 14, dated as of March 12, 2024, by and among BlackRock, Inc., certain of its subsidiaries, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, a swingline lender, an issuing lender, L/C agent and a lender, and the banks and other financial institutions referred to therein.       22.1(3)   Subsidiary Issuer of Guaranteed Securities.       31.1   Section 302 Certification of Chief Executive Officer       31.2   Section 302 Certification of Chief Financial Officer       32.1   Section 906 Certification of Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer       101.INS   Inline XBRL Instance Document – the instance document does not appear in the Interactive Data File because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document       101.SCH   Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema with Embedded Linkbases Document       104   Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL and contained in Exhibit 101)         (1) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 14, 2024. (2) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock's Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 15, 2024. (3) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock's Registration Statement on Form S-3 (Registration No. 333-278583) filed on April 9, 2024. 65   SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.       BLACKROCK, INC.     (Registrant)             By: /s/ Martin S. Small Date: May 7, 2024        Martin S. Small          Senior Managing Director & Chief Financial Officer    (Principal Financial Officer)   66

Predict whether the return of QUAL over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for QUAL starting 2024-05-27 was +3.09%, which classifies as 'positive'.


SGOV over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.8%, annualized vol 0.2%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: SGOV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=88.05, end=88.76, cumulative_return=+0.8%, annualized_volatility=0.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 306.082, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.67, 't10y3m_spread': -1.47, 'breakeven_10y': 2.41, 'hy_oas': 3.97, 'ig_oas': 1.22, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.9, 'vix': 15.770000457763672}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of SGOV over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for SGOV starting 2023-08-08 was +0.32%, which classifies as 'flat'.


XLB over past 60 days: cumulative return +5.7%, annualized vol 14.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=36.71, end=38.82, cumulative_return=+5.7%, annualized_volatility=14.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 310.967, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23082.119, 't10y2y_spread': -0.29, 't10y3m_spread': -1.25, 'breakeven_10y': 2.27, 'hy_oas': 3.5, 'ig_oas': 1.0, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.63, 'vix': 13.670000076293944}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[SEC 10-K AMZN 2024-02-02] amzn-20231231 false 2023 FY 0001018724 http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#OtherAssetsNoncurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#OtherAssetsNoncurrent P3Y P1Y P1Y http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#PropertyPlantAndEquipmentAndFinanceLeaseRightOfUseAssetAfterAccumulatedDepreciationAndAmortization http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#PropertyPlantAndEquipmentAndFinanceLeaseRightOfUseAssetAfterAccumulatedDepreciationAndAmortization http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent http://www.amazon.com/20231231#LeaseLiabilityNoncurrent http://www.amazon.com/20231231#LeaseLiabilityNoncurrent http://www.amazon.com/20231231#LeaseLiabilityNoncurrent http://www.amazon.com/20231231#LeaseLiabilityNoncurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent 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amzn:VendorAccountsReceivableMember 2023-12-31 0001018724 us-gaap:LoansReceivableMember 2022-12-31 0001018724 us-gaap:LoansReceivableMember 2023-12-31 00 [...TRUNCATED...] tents 32.2 Certification of Brian T. Olsavsky, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Amazon.com, Inc., pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350. 97.1 Amazon.com, Inc. Clawback Policy. 101 The following financial statements from the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, formatted in Inline XBRL: (i) Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows, (ii) Consolidated Statements of Operations, (iii) Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss), (iv) Consolidated Balance Sheets, (v) Consolidated Statements of Stockholders’ Equity, and (vi) Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements, tagged as blocks of text and including detailed tags. As permitted by Item 601(b)(4)(iii)(A) of Regulation S-K, the Company has not filed with this Annual Report on Form 10-K certain instruments defining the rights of holders of long-term debt of the Company and its subsidiaries because the total amount of securities authorized thereunder does not exceed 10 percent of the total assets of the Company and its subsidiaries on a consolidated basis. The Company agrees to furnish a copy of such agreements to the Commission upon request. 104 The cover page from the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, formatted in Inline XBRL (included as Exhibit 101). __________________ †    Executive Compensation Plan or Agreement. Item 16. Form 10-K Summary None. 77 Table of Contents SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this Report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized, as of February 1, 2024.   AMAZON.COM, INC. By: /s/ Andrew R. Jassy Andrew R. Jassy President and Chief Executive Officer Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, this Report has been signed below by the following persons on behalf of the registrant and in the capacities indicated as of February 1, 2024.   Signature Title /s/ Andrew R. Jassy Andrew R. Jassy President and Chief Executive Officer (Principal Executive Officer) and Director /s/ Brian T. Olsavsky Brian T. Olsavsky Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (Principal Financial Officer) /s/ Shelley L. Reynolds Shelley L. Reynolds Vice President, Worldwide Controller (Principal Accounting Officer) /s/ Jeffrey P. Bezos Jeffrey P. Bezos Executive Chair /s/ Keith B. Alexander Keith B. Alexander Director /s/ Edith W. Cooper Edith W. Cooper Director /s/ Jamie S. Gorelick Jamie S. Gorelick Director /s/ Daniel P. Huttenlocher Daniel P. Huttenlocher Director /s/ Judith A. McGrath Judith A. McGrath Director /s/ Indra K. Nooyi Indra K. Nooyi Director /s/ Jonathan J. Rubinstein Jonathan J. Rubinstein Director /s/ Brad D. Smith Brad D. Smith Director /s/ Patricia Q. Stonesifer Patricia Q. Stonesifer Director /s/ Wendell P. Weeks Wendell P. Weeks Director 78

Predict whether the return of XLB over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLB starting 2024-02-06 was +9.05%, which classifies as 'positive'.


USMV over past 60 days: cumulative return +12.4%, annualized vol 8.9%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: USMV
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=68.51, end=77.03, cumulative_return=+12.4%, annualized_volatility=8.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 309.698, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23082.119, 't10y2y_spread': -0.17, 't10y3m_spread': -1.31, 'breakeven_10y': 2.29, 'hy_oas': 3.51, 'ig_oas': 1.01, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.6, 'vix': 12.550000190734863}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2024-01-09] ["Is iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) a Strong ETF Right Now? The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) was launched on 07/10/2001, and is a smart beta exchange traded fund designed to offer broad exposure to the Technology ETFs category of the market. What Are Smart Beta ETFs? The ETF industry has long been dominated by products based on market cap weighted indexes, a strategy created to reflect the market or a particular market segment. Market cap weighted indexes offer a low-cost, convenient, and transparent way of replicating market returns, and are a good option for investors who believe in market efficiency. However, some investors believe in the possibility of beating the market through exceptional stock selection, and choose a different type of fund that tracks non-cap weighted strategies: smart beta. Based on specific fundamental characteristics, or a combination of such, these indexes attempt to pick stocks that have a better chance of risk-return performance. The smart beta space gives investors many different choices, from equal-weighting, one of the simplest strategies, to more complicated ones like fundamental and volatility/momentum based weighting. However, not all of these methodologies have been able to deliver remarkable returns. Fund Sponsor & Index The fund is managed by Blackrock, and has been able to amass over $9.93 billion, which makes it one of the largest ETFs in the Technology ETFs. SOXX, before fees and expenses, seeks to match the performance of the PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index. The ICE Semiconductor Index measures the performance of U.S. traded securities of companies engaged in the semiconductor business. Cost & Other Expenses Investors should also pay attention to an ETF's expense ratio. Lower cost products will produce better results than those with a higher cost, assuming all other metrics remain the same. Operating expenses on an annual basis are 0.35% for SOXX, making it one of the least expensive products in the space. It's 12-month trailing dividend yield comes in at 0.81%. Sector Exposure and Top Holdings Even though ETFs offer diversified exposure that minimizes single stock risk, investors should also look at the actual holdings inside the fund. Luckily, most ETFs are very transparent products that disclose their holdings on a daily basis. Representing 100% of the portfolio, the fund has heaviest allocation to the Information Technology sector. Taking into account individual holdings, Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) accounts for about 9.48% of the fund's total assets, followed by Broadcom Inc (AVGO) and Intel Corporation Corp (INTC). SOXX's top 10 holdings account for about 59.63% of its total assets under management. Performance and Risk So far this year, SOXX has lost about -2.88%, and was up about 55.09% in the last one year (as of 01/09/2024). During this past 52-week period, the fund has traded between $373.83 and $581.45. The ETF has a beta of 1.37 and standard deviation of 34.63% for the trailin

Predict whether the return of USMV over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for USMV starting 2024-01-24 was +2.87%, which classifies as 'positive'.


ADA-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -28.2%, annualized vol 74.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ADA-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.62, end=0.44, cumulative_return=-28.2%, annualized_volatility=74.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.023, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23286.508, 't10y2y_spread': -0.34, 't10y3m_spread': -0.86, 'breakeven_10y': 2.39, 'hy_oas': 3.42, 'ig_oas': 0.95, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.88, 'vix': 18.209999084472656}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of ADA-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ADA-USD starting 2024-04-18 was +1.17%, which classifies as 'positive'.


LINK-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +6.3%, annualized vol 59.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: LINK-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=6.51, end=6.92, cumulative_return=+6.3%, annualized_volatility=59.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.08, 'cpi_yoy': 304.609, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.91, 't10y3m_spread': -1.68, 'breakeven_10y': 2.23, 'hy_oas': 3.9, 'ig_oas': 1.28, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.96, 'vix': 13.300000190734863}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-07-18]

Predict whether the return of LINK-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for LINK-USD starting 2023-07-19 was +11.23%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XRP-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +27.1%, annualized vol 79.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XRP-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.48, end=0.61, cumulative_return=+27.1%, annualized_volatility=79.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 306.082, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.71, 't10y3m_spread': -1.35, 'breakeven_10y': 2.32, 'hy_oas': 3.85, 'ig_oas': 1.23, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.96, 'vix': 16.459999084472656}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-08-15]

Predict whether the return of XRP-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XRP-USD starting 2023-08-16 was -14.46%, which classifies as 'negative'.


VEA over past 60 days: cumulative return +22.8%, annualized vol 18.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: VEA
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=33.13, end=40.68, cumulative_return=+22.8%, annualized_volatility=18.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 300.42, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22439.607, 't10y2y_spread': -0.73, 't10y3m_spread': -1.18, 'breakeven_10y': 2.18, 'hy_oas': 4.21, 'ig_oas': 1.32, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.33, 'vix': 18.350000381469727}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-01-13] ["Tim Cook\u2019s pay re-enters earth\u2019s atmosphere Reuters Reuters NEW YORK (Reuters Breakingviews) - How to compensate Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook is one of the more puzzling questions for corporate governance experts. His pay has been out of this world, but then so has the iPhone maker\u2019s share price performance. Nonetheless Apple, its investors and its board have agreed Cook\u2019s pay should orbit closer to Earth in 2023. The $2.1 trillion company has comfortably outperformed rivals over the past three years, with shareholder returns including reinvested dividends in the top percentile among its peers, according to Institutional Shareholder Services. Likewise, his annual compensation of $99 million in 2022 was over 4 times the median of peers, who include Amazon.com\u2019s Andrew Jassy and AT&T\u2019s John Stankey. On Friday, Apple said Cook\u2019s targeted pay will fall to $49 million. That\u2019s an improvement, but still generous. Apple says it will target his pay between 80th and 90th percentile among peers in future years. A bigger improvement is making Cook\u2019s pay less of a giveaway. In 2022, half of his award of Apple stock paid out automatically over time \u2013 so all he had to do is wait. Now it\u2019s 75% performance-based, and his unvested time-based awards lapse if he retires. This is hardly space-age stuff, but at least Apple\u2019s pay is no longer stuck in the past. (By Robert Cyran) Follow @Breakingviews on Twitter Capital Calls - More concise insights on global finance: BlackRock edges closer to its Blackstone roots The fog lifts for Didi's path to normalcy Inflation drop gives Fed leeway to save jobs Gaming\u2019s winter of discontent bolsters M&A logic TSMC foots the bill for global chip supremacy (Editing by John Foley and Amanda Gomez) The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.", "Don't Ignore These Companies' Cash-Generating Abilities It goes without saying that searching for stocks can be challenging, especially with an extensive list of options available. However, one way to cut out the bad apples is by focusing on stocks with strong free cash flow. But what is free cash flow, and why does it matter? In its simplest form, free cash flow is the amount of cash a company keeps after paying for operating costs and capital expenditures. A high free cash flow allows for more growth opportunities, a greater potential for share buybacks, consistent dividend payouts, and the ability to pay off debt easily. Three companies \u2013 Apple AAPL, Alphabet GOOGL, and Verizon Communications VZ \u2013 all generate substantial cash. Below is a chart illustrating the performance of all three stocks over the last year, with the S&P 500 blended in as a benchmark. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Let\u2019s take a closer look at each one. Apple We\u2019re all familiar with the legendary Apple, the company that\u2019s entirely ch

Predict whether the return of VEA over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for VEA starting 2023-01-16 was +0.58%, which classifies as 'flat'.


ICSH over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.8%, annualized vol 0.4%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ICSH
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=46.92, end=47.30, cumulative_return=+0.8%, annualized_volatility=0.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.83, 'cpi_yoy': 315.631, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23586.542, 't10y2y_spread': 0.17, 't10y3m_spread': -0.52, 'breakeven_10y': 2.33, 'hy_oas': 2.92, 'ig_oas': 0.85, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.44, 'vix': 18.200000762939453}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of ICSH over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ICSH starting 2024-10-23 was +0.19%, which classifies as 'flat'.


XLU over past 60 days: cumulative return -4.8%, annualized vol 18.4%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLU
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=32.36, end=30.82, cumulative_return=-4.8%, annualized_volatility=18.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.83, 'cpi_yoy': 302.845, 'unemployment': 3.4, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22580.499, 't10y2y_spread': -0.49, 't10y3m_spread': -1.53, 'breakeven_10y': 2.25, 'hy_oas': 4.73, 'ig_oas': 1.43, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.32, 'vix': 19.0}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-04-04] ["Wall Street Analysts Think Apple (AAPL) Is a Good Investment: Is It? The recommendations of Wall Street analysts are often relied on by investors when deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock. Media reports about these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts changing their ratings often affect a stock's price. Do they really matter, though? Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about Apple (AAPL). Apple currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.35, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 24 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.35 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy. Of the 24 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 18 are Strong Buy and three are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 75% and 12.5% of all recommendations. Brokerage Recommendation Trends for AAPL Check price target & stock forecast for Apple here>>> The ABR suggests buying Apple, but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation. Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five \"Strong Buy\" recommendations for every \"Strong Sell\" recommendation. This means that the interests of these institutions are not always aligned with those of retail investors, giving little insight into the direction of a stock's future price movement. It would therefore be best to use this information to validate your own analysis or a tool that has proven to be highly effective at predicting stock price movements. Zacks Rank, our proprietary stock rating tool with an impressive externally audited track record, categorizes stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), and is an effective indicator of a stock's price performance in the near future. Therefore, using the ABR to validate the Zacks Rank could be an efficient way of making a profitable investment decision. Zacks Rank Should Not Be Confused With ABR Although both Zacks Rank and ABR are displayed in a range of 1-5, they are different measures altogether. The ABR is calculated solely based on brokerage recommendations and is typically displayed with decimals (example: 1.28). In contrast, the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model allowing investors to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5. It has been and continues to be the case that analysts employed by brokerage firms are overly optimistic with their recommendations. Because o

Predict whether the return of XLU over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLU starting 2023-04-05 was -0.42%, which classifies as 'flat'.


DOT-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +68.1%, annualized vol 94.0%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: DOT-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=4.81, end=8.08, cumulative_return=+68.1%, annualized_volatility=94.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.58, 'cpi_yoy': 316.528, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23586.542, 't10y2y_spread': 0.09, 't10y3m_spread': -0.31, 'breakeven_10y': 2.28, 'hy_oas': 2.68, 'ig_oas': 0.81, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.84, 'vix': 14.100000381469728}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of DOT-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for DOT-USD starting 2024-11-27 was -9.16%, which classifies as 'negative'.


XLB over past 60 days: cumulative return -0.3%, annualized vol 13.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=43.64, end=43.52, cumulative_return=-0.3%, annualized_volatility=13.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 314.062, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23478.57, 't10y2y_spread': -0.08, 't10y3m_spread': -1.49, 'breakeven_10y': 2.04, 'hy_oas': 3.72, 'ig_oas': 1.06, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.73, 'vix': 23.38999938964844}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
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us-gaap:CommercialPaperMember 2024-06-29 0000320193 us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel2Member us-gaap:CorporateDebtSecuritiesMember 2024-06-29 0000 [...TRUNCATED...] purchases 45,690  $ 169.74  45,690  May 5, 2024 to June 1, 2024: Open market and privately negotiated purchases 51,729  $ 188.38  51,729  June 2, 2024 to June 29, 2024: Open market and privately negotiated purchases 41,354  $ 205.54  41,354  Total 138,773  $ 114,074  (1) On May 4, 2023, the Board of Directors authorized the purchase of up to $90 billion of the Company’s common stock under a share repurchase program. As of June 29, 2024, remaining availability under the May 2023 program was $4.1 billion. On May 2, 2024, the Board of Directors authorized an additional program to repurchase up to $110 billion of the Company’s common stock. The programs do not obligate the Company to acquire a minimum amount of shares. Under the programs, shares may be repurchased in privately negotiated or open market transactions, including under plans complying with Rule 10b5-1 under the Exchange Act. Item 3.    Defaults Upon Senior Securities None. Item 4.    Mine Safety Disclosures Not applicable. Item 5.    Other Information Insider Trading Arrangements On May 24, 2024 , Tim Cook , the Company’s Chief Executive Officer , entered into a trading plan intended to satisfy the affirmative defense conditions of Rule 10b5-1(c) under the Exchange Act. The plan provides for the sale, subject to certain price limits, of shares vesting during the duration of the plan pursuant to certain equity awards granted to Mr. Cook, excluding shares withheld by the Company to satisfy income tax withholding and remittance obligations. Mr. Cook’s plan will expire on May 24, 2026, subject to early termination in accordance with the terms of the plan. Apple Inc. | Q3 2024 Form 10-Q | 20 Item 6.    Exhibits Incorporated by Reference Exhibit Number Exhibit Description Form Exhibit Filing Date/ Period End Date 31.1* Rule 13a-14(a) / 15d-14(a) Certification of Chief Executive Officer. 31.2* Rule 13a-14(a) / 15d-14(a) Certification of Chief Financial Officer. 32.1** Section 1350 Certifications of Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer. 101* Inline XBRL Document Set for the condensed consolidated financial statements and accompanying notes in Part I, Item 1, “Financial Statements” of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. 104* Inline XBRL for the cover page of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, included in the Exhibit 101 Inline XBRL Document Set. *    Filed herewith. **    Furnished herewith. Apple Inc. | Q3 2024 Form 10-Q | 21 SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized. Date: August 1, 2024 Apple Inc. By: /s/ Luca Maestri Luca Maestri Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer Apple Inc. | Q3 2024 Form 10-Q | 22

Predict whether the return of XLB over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLB starting 2024-08-05 was +4.24%, which classifies as 'positive'.


SOYB over past 60 days: cumulative return -10.0%, annualized vol 18.8%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: SOYB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=24.63, end=22.17, cumulative_return=-10.0%, annualized_volatility=18.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 314.732, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23478.57, 't10y2y_spread': -0.04, 't10y3m_spread': -1.35, 'breakeven_10y': 2.11, 'hy_oas': 3.31, 'ig_oas': 0.98, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.35, 'vix': 20.71999931335449}
Market regime: bull

Predict whether the return of SOYB over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for SOYB starting 2024-09-04 was +2.46%, which classifies as 'positive'.