SOL-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -32.8%, annualized vol 49.1%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: SOL-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=27.38, end=18.40, cumulative_return=-32.8%, annualized_volatility=49.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 307.276, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.71, 't10y3m_spread': -1.3, 'breakeven_10y': 2.35, 'hy_oas': 3.85, 'ig_oas': 1.24, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.12, 'vix': 13.479999542236328}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-09-13]

Predict whether the return of SOL-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for SOL-USD starting 2023-09-14 was +20.47%, which classifies as 'positive'.


EFA over past 60 days: cumulative return +2.7%, annualized vol 14.2%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: EFA
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=61.28, end=62.96, cumulative_return=+2.7%, annualized_volatility=14.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.57, 'cpi_yoy': 301.45, 'unemployment': 3.6, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22439.607, 't10y2y_spread': -0.89, 't10y3m_spread': -0.96, 'breakeven_10y': 2.43, 'hy_oas': 4.22, 'ig_oas': 1.3, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.5, 'vix': 20.700000762939453}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-02-28] ["The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Apple, Linde, Marsh & McLennan Companies, GSK and Expedia For Immediate Release Chicago, IL \u2013 February 28, 2023 \u2013 Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Apple Inc. AAPL, Linde plc LIN, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. MMC, GSK plc GSK and Expedia Group, Inc. EXPE. Here are highlights from Monday\u2019s Analyst Blog: Top Analyst Reports from Apple, Linde and Marsh & McLennan The Zacks Research Daily presents the best research output of our analyst team. Today's Research Daily features new research reports on 16 major stocks, including Apple Inc., Linde plc and Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. These research reports have been hand-picked from the roughly 70 reports published by our analyst team today. You can see all of today\u2019s research reports here >>> Shares of Apple have roughly matched the broader market over the past year (-10.4% for Apple vs. -10.9% for the S&P 500 index), but handily outperformed the Zacks Tech sector (down - 19.8%). The Zacks analyst covering Apple expects year-over-year revenue growth to decelerate in the fiscal first quarter compared with the fiscal fourth quarter due to unfavorable forex. Mac revenues are expected to be negatively impacted by forex. Apple expects Mac revenues to decline substantially year over year during the December quarter. Services revenue growth is expected to be negatively impacted by challenging macroeconomic conditions, unfavorable forex, as well as weakness in digital advertising and gaming. Nevertheless, a growing subscriber base in the Services business and a strong liquidity position are key catalysts. (You can read the full research report on Apple here >>>) Linde shares have outperformed the Zacks Chemical - Diversified industry over the past year (+18.6% vs. +10.3%). The company\u2019s wide range of applications for its industrial gases, Linde is making the world more productive by the day. The company\u2019s primary products in industrial gases include oxygen, which is used as life support in hospitals. Its process gas, like hydrogen, is being utilized for clean fuels, while its high-purity and specialty gases are employed to manufacture electronics. Linde has long-term contracts with on-site customers backed by minimum purchase requirements, thereby securing stable cashflows. In the profitable industrial gas market, the merger of Praxair and Linde has created an efficient player with considerable size advantages. However, the cost of sales continues to increase, hurting the firm\u2019s bottom line. The firm has mostly been paying a lower dividend yield than the industry\u2019s composite stocks over the past two years. (You can read the full research report on Linde here >>>) Marsh & McLennan shares have outperformed the Zacks Insurance - Bro

Predict whether the return of EFA over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for EFA starting 2023-03-01 was +2.07%, which classifies as 'positive'.


DBC over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.5%, annualized vol 12.9%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: DBC
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=21.44, end=21.55, cumulative_return=+0.5%, annualized_volatility=12.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.569, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23478.57, 't10y2y_spread': -0.34, 't10y3m_spread': -1.18, 'breakeven_10y': 2.27, 'hy_oas': 3.2, 'ig_oas': 0.92, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.95, 'vix': 12.369999885559082}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of DBC over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for DBC starting 2024-07-09 was -6.09%, which classifies as 'negative'.


^VIX over past 60 days: cumulative return +17.4%, annualized vol 71.0%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ^VIX
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=12.35, end=14.50, cumulative_return=+17.4%, annualized_volatility=71.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 312.345, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23082.119, 't10y2y_spread': -0.44, 't10y3m_spread': -1.36, 'breakeven_10y': 2.3, 'hy_oas': 3.27, 'ig_oas': 1.01, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.94, 'vix': 14.5}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[SEC 10-K UNH 2024-02-28] unh-20231231 false 2023 FY 0000731766 12/31 10 50 http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2023#OtherLiabilities P4Y P4Y P5Y P3Y 1/1/2026 1/1/2042 1/1/2024 1/1/2043 0.038 0.046 0.019 0.043 0.007 0.012 0.297 0.306 0.306 0.308 0.292 0.298 0.013 0.015 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.015 4.605251141552511 4.702283105022831 4.802054794520548 5.502739726027397 4.202283105022831 5.502739726027397 1.2993150684931507 0000731766 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000731766 2023-06-30 iso4217:USD 0000731766 2024-01-31 xbrli:shares 0000731766 2023-12-31 0000731766 2022-12-31 iso4217:USD xbrli:shares 0000731766 2022-01-01 2022-12-31 0000731766 2021-01-01 2021-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ProductMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ProductMember 2022-01-01 2022-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ProductMember 2021-01-01 2021-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ServiceMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ServiceMember 2022-01-01 2022-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:ServiceMember 2021-01-01 2021-12-31 0000731766 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us-gaap:MortgageBackedSecuritiesIssuedByUSGovernmentSponsoredEnterprisesMember 2022-12-31 0000731766 us-gaap:MortgageBackedSecuritiesIssuedByPrivateEnt [...TRUNCATED...] d long-term debt can be found in Note 8 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” Long-term debt obligations of the parent company do not include other financing obligations at subsidiaries which totaled $ 1.1 billion and $ 0.9 billion at December 31, 2023 and 2022. Maturities of short-term borrowings and long-term debt for the years ending December 31 are as follows: (in millions) 2024 $ 4,088   2025 3,050   2026 2,500   2027 2,925   2028 3,000   Thereafter 47,002   UnitedHealth Group’s parent company had notes payable to subsidiaries of $ 9.9 billion and $ 8.7 billion as of December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively, which included on-demand features. 4. Commitments and Contingencies Certain regulated subsidiaries are guaranteed by UnitedHealth Group’s parent company in the event of insolvency. UnitedHealth Group’s parent company also provides guarantees related to its service level under certain contracts. None of the amounts accrued, paid or charged to income for service level guarantees were material as of December 31, 2023, 2022 or 2021. For a summary of commitments and contingencies, see Note 12 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” ITEM  16.    FORM 10-K SUMMARY None. 79 Table of Contents SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized. Dated: February 28, 2024   UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED By /s/    A NDREW W ITTY   Andrew Witty Chief Executive Officer Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, this report has been signed below by the following persons on behalf of the registrant and in the capacities and on the dates indicated.   Signature Title Date /s/ A NDREW W ITTY Director and Chief Executive Officer (principal executive officer) February 28, 2024 Andrew Witty /s/ J OHN R EX Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (principal financial officer) February 28, 2024 John Rex /s/ T HOMAS R OOS Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer (principal accounting officer) February 28, 2024 Thomas Roos * Director February 28, 2024 Charles Baker * Director February 28, 2024 Timothy Flynn * Director February 28, 2024 Paul Garcia * Director February 28, 2024 Kristen Gil * Director February 28, 2024 Stephen Hemsley * Director February 28, 2024 Michele Hooper * Director February 28, 2024 F. William McNabb III * Director February 28, 2024 Valerie Montgomery Rice, M.D. * Director February 28, 2024 John Noseworthy, M.D.   *By /s/ R UPERT B ONDY   Rupert Bondy As Attorney-in-Fact 80

Predict whether the return of ^VIX over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ^VIX starting 2024-03-07 was +11.01%, which classifies as 'positive'.


ETH-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +8.4%, annualized vol 29.8%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ETH-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=1646.31, end=1784.44, cumulative_return=+8.4%, annualized_volatility=29.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 307.696, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23033.78, 't10y2y_spread': -0.19, 't10y3m_spread': -0.75, 'breakeven_10y': 2.4, 'hy_oas': 4.41, 'ig_oas': 1.31, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.49, 'vix': 18.96999931335449}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-10-24]

Predict whether the return of ETH-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ETH-USD starting 2023-10-25 was +15.27%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XRP-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +19.2%, annualized vol 43.4%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XRP-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.52, end=0.62, cumulative_return=+19.2%, annualized_volatility=43.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 308.741, 'unemployment': 3.8, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23033.78, 't10y2y_spread': -0.39, 't10y3m_spread': -1.27, 'breakeven_10y': 2.17, 'hy_oas': 3.8, 'ig_oas': 1.11, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.22, 'vix': 12.850000381469728}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-05]

Predict whether the return of XRP-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XRP-USD starting 2023-12-06 was -0.86%, which classifies as 'flat'.


SOL-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +74.6%, annualized vol 110.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: SOL-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=13.72, end=23.95, cumulative_return=+74.6%, annualized_volatility=110.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 300.42, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22439.607, 't10y2y_spread': -0.7, 't10y3m_spread': -1.17, 'breakeven_10y': 2.29, 'hy_oas': 4.26, 'ig_oas': 1.25, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.13, 'vix': 19.940000534057617}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-01-30]

Predict whether the return of SOL-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for SOL-USD starting 2023-01-31 was +4.16%, which classifies as 'positive'.


SOL-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +40.8%, annualized vol 60.7%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: SOL-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=146.44, end=206.25, cumulative_return=+40.8%, annualized_volatility=60.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.58, 'cpi_yoy': 317.604, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23586.542, 't10y2y_spread': 0.06, 't10y3m_spread': -0.28, 'breakeven_10y': 2.29, 'hy_oas': 2.66, 'ig_oas': 0.8, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.81, 'vix': 13.449999809265137}
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of SOL-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for SOL-USD starting 2024-12-05 was -8.74%, which classifies as 'negative'.


XLB over past 60 days: cumulative return +4.2%, annualized vol 11.8%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=42.16, end=43.95, cumulative_return=+4.2%, annualized_volatility=11.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.175, 'unemployment': 3.9, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23286.508, 't10y2y_spread': -0.47, 't10y3m_spread': -1.0, 'breakeven_10y': 2.32, 'hy_oas': 3.12, 'ig_oas': 0.89, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.94, 'vix': 11.93000030517578}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
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blk:InvestmentsRelatedToDeferredCashCompensationPlansMember 2023-12-31 0001364742 us-gaap:CollateralizedLo [...TRUNCATED...] hat the Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of an additional seven million shares under the Company’s existing share repurchase program, for a total of up to approximately 7.9 million shares of BlackRock common stock. 64   Item 6. Exh ibits Exhibit No.   Description       4.1(1)   Indenture, dated March 14, 2024, among BlackRock Funding, Inc., BlackRock, Inc. and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee.       4.2(1)   First Supplemental Indenture, dated March 14, 2024, among BlackRock Funding, Inc., BlackRock, Inc. and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee.       4.3(1)   Form of Note for the 4.700% Notes due 2029 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       4.4(1)   Form of Note for the 5.000% Notes due 2034 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       4.5(1)   Form of Note for the 5.250% Notes due 2054 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       10.1(2)   Amendment No. 14, dated as of March 12, 2024, by and among BlackRock, Inc., certain of its subsidiaries, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, a swingline lender, an issuing lender, L/C agent and a lender, and the banks and other financial institutions referred to therein.       22.1(3)   Subsidiary Issuer of Guaranteed Securities.       31.1   Section 302 Certification of Chief Executive Officer       31.2   Section 302 Certification of Chief Financial Officer       32.1   Section 906 Certification of Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer       101.INS   Inline XBRL Instance Document – the instance document does not appear in the Interactive Data File because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document       101.SCH   Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema with Embedded Linkbases Document       104   Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL and contained in Exhibit 101)         (1) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 14, 2024. (2) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock's Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 15, 2024. (3) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock's Registration Statement on Form S-3 (Registration No. 333-278583) filed on April 9, 2024. 65   SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.       BLACKROCK, INC.     (Registrant)             By: /s/ Martin S. Small Date: May 7, 2024        Martin S. Small          Senior Managing Director & Chief Financial Officer    (Principal Financial Officer)   66

Predict whether the return of XLB over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLB starting 2024-05-28 was -2.47%, which classifies as 'negative'.


XRP-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -37.9%, annualized vol 42.2%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XRP-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.79, end=0.49, cumulative_return=-37.9%, annualized_volatility=42.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 307.276, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.69, 't10y3m_spread': -1.23, 'breakeven_10y': 2.35, 'hy_oas': 3.79, 'ig_oas': 1.22, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.18, 'vix': 13.789999961853027}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-09-17]

Predict whether the return of XRP-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XRP-USD starting 2023-09-18 was +0.00%, which classifies as 'flat'.


^VIX over past 60 days: cumulative return -8.7%, annualized vol 86.6%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: ^VIX
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=13.84, end=12.63, cumulative_return=-8.7%, annualized_volatility=86.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.044, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23286.508, 't10y2y_spread': -0.43, 't10y3m_spread': -1.22, 'breakeven_10y': 2.3, 'hy_oas': 3.2, 'ig_oas': 0.91, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.03, 'vix': 12.630000114440918}
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
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2023-03-31 0001364742 us-gaap:EquitySecuritiesMember blk:ConsolidatedVotingRightsEntitiesMember 2024-03-31 0001364742 us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel2Member us-gaap:FairValueMeasurementsRecurringMember 2024-03-31 0001364742 us-gaap:EquitySecuritiesMember us-gaap:VariableInterestEntityPrimaryBeneficiaryMember 2024-03-31 0001364742 us-gaap:ForeignExchangeForwardMember 2023-12-31 0001364742 blk:OnePointNineZeroPercentNotesDueTwoThousandThirtyOneMember 2024-03-31 0001364742 blk:EquityFixedIncomeAndMultiAssetMutualFundsMember us-gaap:FairValueMeasurementsRecurringMember 2023-12-31 0001364742 2022-10-01 2022-12-31 0001364742 us-gaap:FairValueMeasurementsRecurringMember us-gaap:PortionAtOtherThanFairValueFairValueDisclosureMember 2024-03-31 0001364742 blk:AlternativeInvestmentsProductsMember us-gaap:InvestmentPerformanceMember 2024-01-01 2024-03-31 0001364742 srt:AmericasMember 2023-12-31 0001364742 us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel1Member us-gaap:FairValueMeasurementsRecurringMember blk:InvestmentsRelatedToDeferredCashCompensationPlansMember 2023-12-31 0001364742 us-gaap:CollateralizedLo [...TRUNCATED...] hat the Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of an additional seven million shares under the Company’s existing share repurchase program, for a total of up to approximately 7.9 million shares of BlackRock common stock. 64   Item 6. Exh ibits Exhibit No.   Description       4.1(1)   Indenture, dated March 14, 2024, among BlackRock Funding, Inc., BlackRock, Inc. and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee.       4.2(1)   First Supplemental Indenture, dated March 14, 2024, among BlackRock Funding, Inc., BlackRock, Inc. and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee.       4.3(1)   Form of Note for the 4.700% Notes due 2029 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       4.4(1)   Form of Note for the 5.000% Notes due 2034 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       4.5(1)   Form of Note for the 5.250% Notes due 2054 (included in Exhibit 4.2).       10.1(2)   Amendment No. 14, dated as of March 12, 2024, by and among BlackRock, Inc., certain of its subsidiaries, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, a swingline lender, an issuing lender, L/C agent and a lender, and the banks and other financial institutions referred to therein.       22.1(3)   Subsidiary Issuer of Guaranteed Securities.       31.1   Section 302 Certification of Chief Executive Officer       31.2   Section 302 Certification of Chief Financial Officer       32.1   Section 906 Certification of Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer       101.INS   Inline XBRL Instance Document – the instance document does not appear in the Interactive Data File because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document       101.SCH   Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema with Embedded Linkbases Document       104   Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL and contained in Exhibit 101)         (1) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 14, 2024. (2) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock's Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 15, 2024. (3) Incorporated by reference to BlackRock's Registration Statement on Form S-3 (Registration No. 333-278583) filed on April 9, 2024. 65   SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.       BLACKROCK, INC.     (Registrant)             By: /s/ Martin S. Small Date: May 7, 2024        Martin S. Small          Senior Managing Director & Chief Financial Officer    (Principal Financial Officer)   66

Predict whether the return of ^VIX over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ^VIX starting 2024-06-06 was -0.79%, which classifies as 'flat'.


SOL-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -1.1%, annualized vol 69.1%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: SOL-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=143.52, end=141.97, cumulative_return=-1.1%, annualized_volatility=69.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 313.569, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23478.57, 't10y2y_spread': -0.34, 't10y3m_spread': -1.18, 'breakeven_10y': 2.27, 'hy_oas': 3.17, 'ig_oas': 0.92, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.95, 'vix': 12.850000381469728}
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of SOL-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for SOL-USD starting 2024-07-11 was +23.39%, which classifies as 'positive'.


AVAX-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +32.5%, annualized vol 67.9%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: AVAX-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=23.52, end=31.16, cumulative_return=+32.5%, annualized_volatility=67.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.58, 'cpi_yoy': 316.528, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23586.542, 't10y2y_spread': 0.09, 't10y3m_spread': -0.18, 'breakeven_10y': 2.33, 'hy_oas': 2.66, 'ig_oas': 0.8, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.78, 'vix': 14.3100004196167}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of AVAX-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for AVAX-USD starting 2024-11-15 was +58.66%, which classifies as 'positive'.


MATIC-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -22.0%, annualized vol 71.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: MATIC-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.90, end=0.70, cumulative_return=-22.0%, annualized_volatility=71.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 5.33, 'cpi_yoy': 306.082, 'unemployment': 3.7, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22840.989, 't10y2y_spread': -0.87, 't10y3m_spread': -1.49, 'breakeven_10y': 2.37, 'hy_oas': 3.82, 'ig_oas': 1.19, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.81, 'vix': 13.93000030517578}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-08-01]

Predict whether the return of MATIC-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for MATIC-USD starting 2023-08-02 was -18.21%, which classifies as 'negative'.


WEAT over past 60 days: cumulative return -13.6%, annualized vol 23.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: WEAT
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=39.05, end=33.75, cumulative_return=-13.6%, annualized_volatility=23.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.58, 'cpi_yoy': 301.821, 'unemployment': 3.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 22439.607, 't10y2y_spread': -0.48, 't10y3m_spread': -1.31, 'breakeven_10y': 2.28, 'hy_oas': 5.0, 'ig_oas': 1.5, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.6, 'vix': 22.26000022888184}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of WEAT over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for WEAT starting 2023-03-23 was +0.30%, which classifies as 'flat'.


BTC-USD: 60-day return history, mean=-0.0005, std=0.0193.

Question:
Asset: BTC-USD
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=-0.0005, std=0.0193, min=-0.0518, max=0.0466
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-05-31]

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for BTC-USD. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0328

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0328 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 3.28%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0421.


USMV: 60-day return history, mean=0.0002, std=0.0075.

Question:
Asset: USMV
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=0.0002, std=0.0075, min=-0.0177, max=0.0140
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-04-06] ["Guru Fundamental Report for AAPL - Warren Buffett Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for APPLE INC (AAPL). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, AAPL rates highest using our Patient Investor model based on the published strategy of Warren Buffett. This strategy seeks out firms with long-term, predictable profitability and low debt that trade at reasonable valuations. APPLE INC (AAPL) is a large-cap growth stock in the Communications Equipment industry. The rating using this strategy is 100% based on the firm\u2019s underlying fundamentals and the stock\u2019s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest. The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria. EARNINGS PREDICTABILITY: PASS DEBT SERVICE: PASS RETURN ON EQUITY: PASS RETURN ON TOTAL CAPITAL: PASS FREE CASH FLOW: PASS USE OF RETAINED EARNINGS: PASS SHARE REPURCHASE: PASS INITIAL RATE OF RETURN: PASS EXPECTED RETURN: PASS Detailed Analysis of APPLE INC AAPL Guru Analysis AAPL Fundamental Analysis More Information on Warren Buffett Warren Buffett Portfolio Top Warren Buffett Stocks About Warren Buffett: Warren Buffett is considered by many to be the greatest investor of all time. As the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 for decades, and in the process has become one of the world's richest men. (Forbes puts his net worth at $37 billion.) Despite his fortune, Buffett is known for living a modest lifestyle, by billionaire standards. His primary residence remains the gray stucco Nebraska home he purchased for $31,500 nearly 50 years ago, according to Forbes, and his folksy Midwestern manner and penchant for simple pleasures -- a cherry Coke, a good burger, and a good book are all near the top of the list -- have been well-documented. Additional Research Links Factor-Based Stock Portfolios Factor-Based ETF Portfolios Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio About Validea: Validea is aninvestment researchservice that follows the published strategies of investment legends. Validea offers both stock analysis and model portfolios based on gurus who have outperformed the market over the long-term, including Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and Martin Zweig. For more information about Validea, click here The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.", "3 Cryptos That Day Traders Love Right Now InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips Cryptocurrencies delivered huge gains for investors during the previous bull market. Yet, more than a few got wiped o

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for USMV. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0123

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0123 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 1.23%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0148.


FXI: 60-day return history, mean=-0.0005, std=0.0176.

Question:
Asset: FXI
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=-0.0005, std=0.0176, min=-0.0376, max=0.0440
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-05-16] ["Tesla to meet Indian officials this week - source By Aditya Kalra and Aditi Shah NEW DELHI, May 16 (Reuters) - Senior Tesla Inc TSLA.O executives will meet Indian government officials on Wednesday and Thursday to discuss local procurement of parts and other issues, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The electric carmaker's renewed interest in India comes nearly a year after it put on hold plans to sell cars in the country after failing to secure lower import taxes, which its CEO Elon Musk said are among the highest in the world. Tesla and an Indian government spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Tesla wanted lower tariffs to be able to test the local market with cars imported from the U.S. and China, but the Indian government wanted it to commit to manufacturing locally before cutting import taxes on cars that can run as high as 100%. The electric carmaker had hired a local team and begun a search for showroom space, but that was also abandoned last year. Local sourcing aligns with Modi's pitch to attract manufacturers with his \"Make in India\" campaign, especially as companies look to diversify their supply chains beyond China. The meeting comes weeks ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the United States in June. Bloomberg News first reported the meeting plan. (Reporting by Aditya Kalra; Additional reporting by Aditi Shah; Editing by Jan Harvey) ((aditi.shah@tr.com; +91-11-4954 8023, +91-11-3015 8023; Reuters Messaging: twitter: @aditishahsays)) The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.", "Pre-Market Most Active for May 16, 2023 : SQQQ, APLD, HZNP, AAPL, FUTU, MRVL, AGL, NU, SE, HD, CL, AI The NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator is down -18.87 to 13,394.64. The total Pre-Market volume is currently 25,120,169 shares traded. The following are the most active stocks for the pre-market session: ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) is +0.05 at $27.95, with 1,833,307 shares traded. This represents a .54% increase from its 52 Week Low. Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) is +1.275 at $4.69, with 1,816,264 shares traded. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for APLD is in the \"buy range\". Horizon Therapeutics Public Limited Company (HZNP) is -20.25 at $92.00, with 1,704,565 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 3 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Dec 2023. The consensus EPS forecast is $1.6. HZNP's current last sale is 78.97% of the target price of $116.5. Apple Inc. (AAPL) is -0.07 at $172.00, with 1,566,401 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 3 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Dec 2023. The consensus EPS forecast is $2.17. As reported by Zacks, the current mean recommendation for AAPL is in the \"buy range\". Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) is -4.05 at $39.10, with 1,558,667 sh

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for FXI. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0274

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0274 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 2.74%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0320.


IWM: 60-day return history, mean=-0.0001, std=0.0094.

Question:
Asset: IWM
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=-0.0001, std=0.0094, min=-0.0213, max=0.0170
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-09-18] ["2 Stocks That Are Cash Flow Machines to Buy Now While a profit metric like net income shouldn't be ignored, it's ultimately an accounting figure. Free cash flow, which is the amount of cash a business generates from operations after subtracting capital expenditures, is what fuels growth investments, dividend payments, share buybacks, and debt reduction. You can't spend net income. Investing in companies that are solid cash flow producers is often a good idea, assuming the price is reasonable. Two cash flow machines that trade at pessimistic valuations are AT&T (NYSE: T) and IBM (NYSE: IBM). Both stocks look like bargains. AT&T With Apple's iPhone 15 family officially announced, the major wireless carriers are using promotions to attract new customers and retain existing customers. AT&T, for example, is offering as much as $1,000 off the iPhone 15 Pro with an eligible trade-in for customers on its Unlimited plans. While this promotional activity appears aggressive, AT&T CFO Pascal Desroches noted during a recent conference that promotional activity is largely unchanged across the industry. \"I would characterize the environment as really healthy. The competitive dynamics is very, very healthy, very rational,\" Desroches said. During the same conference, Desroches reiterated AT&T's guidance calling for at least $16 billion of free cash flow this year, even as subscriber gains have slowed. Free cash flow could move higher in 2024 and beyond as AT&T pulls back a bit on capital spending. The company has been investing heavily in its 5G and fiber networks, pushing capital spending up. This year is expected to mark the peak of that spending. AT&T is valued at about $109 billion. Based on the free cash guidance, the stock's price-to-free-cash-flow ratio is around 6.8. That's an extremely pessimistic valuation. AT&T stock certainly doesn't deserve to trade at a premium: Growth will be slow at best, debt levels are still elevated, and competitive pressures could ramp up if economic conditions deteriorate. But the pessimism seems overdone. AT&T stock trades lower than it did during the dot-com bubble, the financial crisis, and the pandemic. For patient investors, this cash flow machine looks like a bargain. IBM While IBM is a complex company that spans hardware, software, and services, the tech giant ultimately offers customers solutions that aim to boost productivity and cut costs. In a tough and uncertain economy, that pitch should resonate with customers. IBM's cloud strategy is centered around hybrid cloud computing. While some companies will go all-in on the public cloud, that's not realistic for major enterprises with sprawling IT infrastructures. IBM's hybrid cloud platform, powered by Red Hat software, provides a path for customers to modernize their infrastructure and take advantage of cloud computing while minimizing disruption and keeping an eye on costs. On top of software, IBM's consulting arm provides guidance and help in navigating the move

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for IWM. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0140

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0140 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 1.40%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0176.


BNB-USD: 60-day return history, mean=-0.0003, std=0.0250.

Question:
Asset: BNB-USD
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=-0.0003, std=0.0250, min=-0.0727, max=0.0954
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for BNB-USD. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0351

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0351 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 3.51%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0510.


VTI: 60-day return history, mean=0.0004, std=0.0088.

Question:
Asset: VTI
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=0.0004, std=0.0088, min=-0.0169, max=0.0219
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-11-21] ["AAPL Quantitative Stock Analysis Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for APPLE INC (AAPL). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, AAPL rates highest using our Twin Momentum Investor model based on the published strategy of Dashan Huang. This momentum model looks for a combination of fundamental momentum and price momentum. APPLE INC (AAPL) is a large-cap growth stock in the Communications Equipment industry. The rating using this strategy is 94% based on the firm\u2019s underlying fundamentals and the stock\u2019s valuation. A score of 80% or above typically indicates that the strategy has some interest in the stock and a score above 90% typically indicates strong interest. The following table summarizes whether the stock meets each of this strategy's tests. Not all criteria in the below table receive equal weighting or are independent, but the table provides a brief overview of the strong and weak points of the security in the context of the strategy's criteria. FUNDAMENTAL MOMENTUM: PASS TWELVE MINUS ONE MOMENTUM: PASS FINAL RANK: PASS Detailed Analysis of APPLE INC AAPL Guru Analysis AAPL Fundamental Analysis More Information on Dashan Huang Dashan Huang Portfolio About Dashan Huang: Dashan Huang is an Assistant Professor of Finance at the Lee Kong Chian School of Business at Singapore Management University. His paper \"Twin Momentum\" looked at combining traditional price momentum with improving fundamentals to generate market outperformance. In the paper, he identified seven fundamental variables (earnings, return on equity, return on assets, accrual operating profitability to equity, cash operating profitability to assets, gross profit to assets and net payout ratio) that he combined into a single fundamental momentum measure. He showed that stocks in the top 20% of the universe according to that measure outperformed the market going forward. When he combined that measure with price momentum, he was able to double its outperformance. Additional Research Links Top NASDAQ 100 Stocks Top Technology Stocks Top Large-Cap Growth Stocks High Momentum Stocks High Insider Ownership Stocks About Validea: Validea is aninvestment researchservice that follows the published strategies of investment legends. Validea offers both stock analysis and model portfolios based on gurus who have outperformed the market over the long-term, including Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and Martin Zweig. For more information about Validea, click here The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.", "EXPLAINER-What is Black Friday? And will shoppers find bargains this year? By Juveria Tabassum, Savyata Mishra Nov 16 (Reuters) - Retailers are preparing for what they hope will be yet another record-setting global shopping spree on Black Friday, the fourth Friday of November, which this year is Nov. 24. Known for crowds lining up at big-box stores to pounce on doorbuste

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for VTI. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0146

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0146 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 1.46%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0156.


MATIC-USD: 60-day return history, mean=-0.0019, std=0.0333.

Question:
Asset: MATIC-USD
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=-0.0019, std=0.0333, min=-0.0851, max=0.0871
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-05-04]

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for MATIC-USD. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0563

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0563 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 5.63%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0769.


VNQI: 60-day return history, mean=-0.0000, std=0.0081.

Question:
Asset: VNQI
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=-0.0000, std=0.0081, min=-0.0251, max=0.0153
Market regime: sideways

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for VNQI. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0126

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0126 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 1.26%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0216.


ITB: 60-day return history, mean=0.0021, std=0.0167.

Question:
Asset: ITB
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=0.0021, std=0.0167, min=-0.0381, max=0.0472
Market regime: sideways

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for ITB. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0214

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0214 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 2.14%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0331.


XLY: 60-day return history, mean=0.0025, std=0.0107.

Question:
Asset: XLY
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=0.0025, std=0.0107, min=-0.0347, max=0.0232
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
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Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for XLY. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0121

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0121 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 1.21%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0213.


ADA-USD: 60-day return history, mean=0.0055, std=0.0529.

Question:
Asset: ADA-USD
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=0.0055, std=0.0529, min=-0.0799, max=0.1961
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for ADA-USD. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0601

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0601 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 6.01%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0726.


USMV: 60-day return history, mean=-0.0004, std=0.0052.

Question:
Asset: USMV
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=-0.0004, std=0.0052, min=-0.0123, max=0.0088
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-10-12] ["US STOCKS-Futures rise as Treasury yields retreat ahead of inflation data For a Reuters live blog on U.S., UK and European stock markets, click LIVE/ or type LIVE/ in a news window CPI, weekly jobless claims due at 8:30 a.m. ET Fed officials adopted more cautious stance in September Israel says no exceptions to Gaza siege unless hostages freed Delta Air Lines up on quarterly profit beat Futures up: Dow 0.31%, S&P 0.37%, Nasdaq 0.35% Updated at 7:09 a.m. ET/1109 GMT By Shashwat Chauhan and Ankika Biswas Oct 12 (Reuters) - Futures tracking Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday as Treasury yields continued to ease, while investors looked forward to crucial inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook. The Labor Department report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show consumer prices rose 0.3% in September, according to economists polled by Reuters, from a gasoline-fueled 0.6% rise in August. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen rising at a similar pace to last month's 0.3%. Focus will also be on weekly jobless claims for clues on the state of the labor market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note US10YT=RR fell for the third straight day, helping megacap stocks Apple AAPL.O, Alphabet GOOGL.O, Nvidia NVDA.O, Meta Platforms META.O and Amazon.com AMZN.O advance between 0.2% and 0.7% in premarket trading. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Wednesday while the odds of the economy escaping a recession have grown, it's possible the central bank is not done with interest rate hikes aimed at bringing inflation back to its target. Remarks from other Fed policymakers, including Atlanta's Raphael Bostic, are also expected on Thursday. Minutes of the Fed's Sept. 19-20 meeting showed a growing sense of uncertainty around the path of the U.S. economy, with volatile data and tightening financial markets posing risks to growth. \"The words 'proceed carefully' and 'risks to achieving the goals had become more two-sided' speak to the view of the centrists on the FOMC,\" Societe Generale strategists said, referring to the Fed minutes. \"Barring a surprise for CPI today ... one must assume another hawkish pause or skip on Nov. 1 is now a done deal.\" Traders put the chance of interest rates remaining unchanged in November and December at around 91% and around 72%, respectively, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, Israel said there would be no humanitarian exceptions to its siege of the Gaza Strip until all its hostages were freed. Public broadcaster Kan said the Israeli death toll had risen to more than 1,300 since Saturday, while Gaza authorities said more than 1,200 people have been killed and more than 5,000 people have been wounded in retaliatory bombings. At 7:09 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis 1YMcv1 were up 105 points, or 0.31%, S&P 500 e-minis EScv1 were up 16.5 points, or 0.37%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQcv1 were up 54.25 points, or 0.35%. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher for

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for USMV. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0078

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0078 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 0.78%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0110.


XLP: 60-day return history, mean=-0.0020, std=0.0066.

Question:
Asset: XLP
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=-0.0020, std=0.0066, min=-0.0199, max=0.0103
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-10-23] ["Why the Market Dipped But Apple (AAPL) Gained Today Apple (AAPL) closed at $173 in the latest trading session, marking a +0.07% move from the prior day. The stock exceeded the S&P 500, which registered a loss of 0.17% for the day. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.58%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 0.27%. Heading into today, shares of the maker of iPhones, iPads and other products had lost 1.09% over the past month, outpacing the Computer and Technology sector's loss of 2.16% and the S&P 500's loss of 3.95% in that time. The upcoming earnings release of Apple will be of great interest to investors. The company's earnings report is expected on November 2, 2023. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $1.39, showcasing a 7.75% upward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. Alongside, our most recent consensus estimate is anticipating revenue of $88.93 billion, indicating a 1.34% downward movement from the same quarter last year. Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for Apple. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the company's business and profitability. Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-team stock moves. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system. The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 0.39% downward. Apple presently features a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). In terms of valuation, Apple is presently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 26.36. This expresses a premium compared to the average Forward P/E of 11.78 of its industry. It's also important to note that AAPL currently trades at a PEG ratio of 2.32. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. The average PEG ratio for the Computer - Mini computers industry stood at 2.32 at the close of the market yesterday. The Computer - Mini computers industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 54, putting it in the top 22% of all 250+ industries. The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1. Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions. 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days Just released: Experts distill 7 el

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for XLP. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0108

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0108 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 1.08%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0146.


WEAT: 60-day return history, mean=-0.0043, std=0.0138.

Question:
Asset: WEAT
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=-0.0043, std=0.0138, min=-0.0310, max=0.0328
Market regime: sideways

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for WEAT. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0247

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0247 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 2.47%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0283.


QUAL: 60-day return history, mean=0.0017, std=0.0084.

Question:
Asset: QUAL
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=0.0017, std=0.0084, min=-0.0173, max=0.0233
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-06-23] ["Great Stocks Are Still on Sale, but There's Something You Need to Know First It seems like investors have turned from pessimism to optimism, as the S&P 500 is approaching what many market watchers consider to be bull market territory, up over 20% since its recent low in October 2022. Inflation has been cooling for several months now, so the thinking is probably that rate hikes are coming to an end soon. Investors are reacting to this expectation by pushing stocks higher. As a result, folks might think that lucrative buying opportunities don't exist anymore given many companies' share prices have jumped higher in 2023. But this is a flawed assumption. That's because great stocks are still on sale right now. There's just something you need to know first. It's all about quality Just because a stock sells for a cheap valuation, it doesn't necessarily mean it's a good investment opportunity. A so-called value trap is a company that might have a cheap price-to-sales (P/S) or price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, but the underlying business is facing some problems. Take Carvana, for example, which trades at a P/S multiple of 0.2 (as of June 16). The company might be showing signs of life after a difficult 2022, but it's still dealing with challenges as it relates to used car demand and the current macro environment affecting its financial situation. Some risk-tolerant investors might view this as a potential buying opportunity, though. Moreover, it's critical to always look for businesses that have strong financial positions. This means the ability to generate lots of free cash flow, as well as having a robust balance sheet. Carvana doesn't possess these attributes today, but a company like Apple does. In fact, the iPhone maker's debt-service coverage ratio, which measures its ability to pay off its obligations, was 5.1 during the first six months of its fiscal 2023. That's very good. But Apple's shares are historically expensive right now. A business that isn't a value trap and that sells at an attractive valuation is PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL). The digital payments leader currently has 433 million active accounts and processed $1.36 trillion of total payment volume in 2022, up 9% year over year. And as of this writing, shares trade at a P/E ratio of 28.2, near their lowest multiple ever. This is a good example of a great stock on sale right now. Be prepared for volatility Now that we've discussed that finding high-quality businesses that have strong financial positions is of the utmost importance, investors should prepare themselves mentally for a bumpy ride. Investing in the stock market can lead to life-changing wealth over time, but volatility is something that can't be avoided. That's because investor sentiment can shift at the drop of a hat. But zooming out and looking at long stretches of time proves that the stock market historically goes up. A popular metric to gauge volatility is the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, otherwise known a

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for QUAL. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0115

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0115 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 1.15%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0144.


USMV: 60-day return history, mean=-0.0003, std=0.0049.

Question:
Asset: USMV
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=-0.0003, std=0.0049, min=-0.0123, max=0.0088
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-09-27] ["Is ProShares S&P Technology Dividend Aristocrats ETF (TDV) a Strong ETF Right Now? Launched on 11/05/2019, the ProShares S&P Technology Dividend Aristocrats ETF (TDV) is a smart beta exchange traded fund offering broad exposure to the Technology ETFs category of the market. What Are Smart Beta ETFs? The ETF industry has long been dominated by products based on market cap weighted indexes, a strategy created to reflect the market or a particular market segment. Because market cap weighted indexes provide a low-cost, convenient, and transparent way of replicating market returns, they work well for investors who believe in market efficiency. If you're the kind of investor who would rather try and beat the market through good stock selection, then smart beta funds are your best choice; this fund class is known for tracking non-cap weighted strategies. These indexes attempt to select stocks that have better chances of risk-return performance, based on certain fundamental characteristics or a combination of such characteristics. While this space offers a number of choices to investors, including simplest equal-weighting, fundamental weighting and volatility/momentum based weighting methodologies, not all these strategies have been able to deliver superior results. Fund Sponsor & Index The fund is managed by Proshares. TDV has been able to amass assets over $203.91 million, making it one of the average sized ETFs in the Technology ETFs. TDV seeks to match the performance of the S&P TECHNOLOGY DIVIDEND ARISTOCRATS INDX before fees and expenses. The S&P Technology Dividend Aristocrats Index targets companies from information technology, internet and direct marketing retail, interactive home entertainment, and interactive media and services segments of the economy. Cost & Other Expenses When considering an ETF's total return, expense ratios are an important factor. And, cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive cousins in the long term if all other factors remain equal. Operating expenses on an annual basis are 0.45% for TDV, making it one of the cheaper products in the space. It has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.38%. Performance and Risk The ETF return is roughly 12.29% and is up about 21.22% so far this year and in the past one year (as of 09/27/2023), respectively. TDV has traded between $49.99 and $67.88 during this last 52-week period. The fund has a beta of 1.05 and standard deviation of 20.40% for the trailing three-year period. With about 39 holdings, it has more concentrated exposure than peers. Alternatives ProShares S&P Technology Dividend Aristocrats ETF is an excellent option for investors seeking to outperform the Technology ETFs segment of the market. There are other ETFs in the space which investors could consider as well. IShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (DGRO) tracks Morningstar US Dividend Growth Index and the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) tracks NASDAQ US Dividend Achievers Select Index. ISha

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for USMV. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0078


XLK: 60-day return history, mean=0.0028, std=0.0124.

Question:
Asset: XLK
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=0.0028, std=0.0124, min=-0.0216, max=0.0373
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-05-30] ["The 25 Best Growth Stocks for the Next 5 Years InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips Looking for the best growth stocks to buy will take much more scrutiny in the current market environment. I wrote a column on Dec. 31, 2022 about 25 tech stocks to \u201cbuy before they take off in 2023.\u201d Almost all of them have rallied and are up substantially since they changed hands for peanuts back then. However, the situation now is very different after the rally this year, and most growth stocks do not provide compelling entry points. This does not mean that investors should shun all growth names. There are still high-quality growth stocks with excellent long-term potential, and jumping on board is a good idea no matter the market conditions. Of course, one may say there are risks of a recession, a debt default, etc. But there will always be some hubbub, and it\u2019s not the best idea to always put too much thought into the worst-case scenarios. For example, investors who feared the worst in the summer of 2022 and closed their positions on a loss likely regret that decision now. No one has a crystal ball, and trying to avoid near-term losses will likely lead to losing out on future gains. That\u2019s why most well-respected investors have made their fortunes through time in the market, not timing. Naturally, blindly buying does not apply to all growth stocks, and I will not include stocks with price targets too low from the current price point. That said, let\u2019s look at the 25 best growth stocks to buy for the next five years in no particular order: Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) Source: salarko / Shutterstock.com Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) has repeatedly proven that it can continue competing in all sectors and catch up with new trends. The ad market slowdown since mid-2022 and then OpenAI\u2019s ChatGPT integration with Bing caused panic about Google\u2019s future, and the company did make a blunder by rushing Bard. However, it has since improved on Bard, and the chatbot is now a serious contender to ChatGPT. It is trained on a larger dataset and can theoretically perform more tasks. In addition, the initial hype surrounding Bing seems to be nothing more than a fad. Google\u2019s search engine market share has only grown while Bing\u2019s has declined. Alphabet\u2019s ad revenue still lags behind but that will eventually recover in the long run. Thus, I see GOOG as a strong buy at this level. Microsoft (MSFT) Source: NYCStock / Shutterstock.com Things are only looking up for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) as the company fires on all cylinders. Microsoft is chipping away at the businesses of other tech giants and is looking to expand and threaten others. For example, Azure has grown to become a major AWS competitor, while Bing has kept Google tense. It is also spearheading development in AI with its investments in OpenAI. Microsoft is also investing massively in quantum computing, gaming and mixed reality, all of which are hi

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for XLK. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0145

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0145 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 1.45%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0181.


MTUM: 60-day return history, mean=0.0013, std=0.0081.

Question:
Asset: MTUM
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=0.0013, std=0.0081, min=-0.0212, max=0.0228
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
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us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2023-08-01 2023-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:Com [...TRUNCATED...] assumptions not being realized or other factors, the actual results relating to the subject matter of any forward-looking statement in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q may differ materially from the anticipated results expressed or implied in that forward-looking statement. The forward-looking statements included in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q are made only as of the date of this report, and Walmart undertakes no obligation to update any such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. 35 Table of Contents Item 6. Exhibits The following documents are filed as an exhibit to this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q: Exhibit 3.1(a) Restated Certificate of Incorporation of the Company dated February 1, 2018 is incorporated herein by reference to Exhibit 3.1 to the Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company on February 1, 2018 Exhibit 3.1(b) Certificate of Amendment to the Restated Certificate of Incorporation of the Company, effective February 23, 2024 is incorporated herein by reference to Exhibit 3.1 to the Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company on February 23, 2024 Exhibit 3.2 Amended and Restated Bylaws of the Company dated November 10, 2022 are incorporated herein by reference to Exhibit 3.1 to the Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company on November 16, 2022 Exhibit 31.1* Chief Executive Officer Section 302 Certification Exhibit 31.2* Chief Financial Officer Section 302 Certification Exhibit 32.1** Chief Executive Officer Section 906 Certification Exhibit 32.2** Chief Financial Officer Section 906 Certification Exhibit 99.1* Opioids-Related Litigation Case Citations and Currently Scheduled Trial Dates Exhibit 101.INS* Inline XBRL Instance Document Exhibit 101.SCH* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema Document Exhibit 101.CAL* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase Document Exhibit 101.DEF* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase Document Exhibit 101.LAB* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase Document Exhibit 101.PRE* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase Document Exhibit 104 The cover page from the Company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended October 31, 2024, formatted in Inline XBRL (included in Exhibit 101) * Filed herewith as an Exhibit. ** Furnished herewith as an Exhibit. 36 Table of Contents SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.   WALMART INC. Date: December 6, 2024 By: /s/ C. Douglas McMillon C. Douglas McMillon President and Chief Executive Officer (Principal Executive Officer) Date: December 6, 2024 By: /s/ John David Rainey John David Rainey Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (Principal Financial Officer) Date: December 6, 2024 By: /s/ David M. Chojnowski David M. Chojnowski Senior Vice President and Controller (Principal Accounting Officer) 37

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for MTUM. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0103

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0103 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 1.03%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0149.


LINK-USD: 60-day return history, mean=0.0016, std=0.0303.

Question:
Asset: LINK-USD
Daily returns (past 60 days): mean=0.0016, std=0.0303, min=-0.0854, max=0.0901
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-01-16]

Using the historical simulation method, compute the 1-day VaR at 95% confidence level for LINK-USD. Express as a decimal (e.g., -0.02).

Answer: -0.0416

Explanation: Historical simulation VaR at 95%: sort the 60 daily returns and take the 5th percentile. VaR(95%) = -0.0416 (i.e., on a bad day with 5% probability, the loss exceeds 4.16%). CVaR(95%) = -0.0653.