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"9510421", "9510429", "9510455", "9510520", "9510612", "9510618", "9510671", "9510712", "9510820", "9510856", "9511224"], "test": ["10034", "1010325", "10107", "10277", "10403", "10573", "1510002", "1510111", "1510208", "1510463", "2010117", "2010169", "2010599", "2010742", "2010787", "2010847", "2510000", "2510143", "2510481", "2510619", "2510725", "3010228", "3010237", "3010401", "3010792", "3510094", "3510188", "3510213", "3510438", "3510534", "3511230", "4010214", "4010640", "4010686", "4011217", "4011240", "4011248", "4510423", "4510713", "4510850", "4510880", "5010027", "5010086", "5010137", "5010350", "5010376", "510490", "510527", "510814", "5510016", "5510128", "5510312", "5510494", "5510600", "5510622", "5510699", "5510825", "6010023", "6010026", "6010095", "6010615", "6010678", "6010695", "6011215", "6510014", "6510043", "6510207", "6510409", "7010419", "7010439", "7010586", "7010697", "7011226", "7510109", "7510269", "7510711", "7511211", "8010068", "8010476", "8010481", "8010557", "8010731", "8510082", "8510157", "8510352", "8510370", "8510519", "8510582", "9010153", "9010258", "9010345", "9010687", "9010725", "9010831", "9510022", "9510197", "9510242", "9510550", "9510757", "9510873"]}} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/artifacts/models/ptp_break_v1.0.json b/artifacts/models/ptp_break_v1.0.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..106f6165be673d27a33a13496a2f89de7e12985c --- /dev/null +++ b/artifacts/models/ptp_break_v1.0.json @@ -0,0 +1,593 @@ +{ + "model_name": "ptp_break", + "model_version": "ptp_break_v1.0", + "algorithm": "LightGBM binary + isotonic calibration", + "trained_at": "2026-10-11T19:18:30", + "as_of": "2026-09-28", + "label": "1 = promise broken; 0 = kept or partially kept (open / cancelled excluded)", + "split": { + "by": "ptp_due_date", + "train": "< 2026-05-01", + "valid": "2026-05-01 .. 2026-07-01", + "test": ">= 2026-07-01 (resolved, due <= AS_OF - 5d)" + }, + "rows": { + "train": 125339, + "valid": 17076, + "test": 61688 + }, + "training_window": { + "first_promise": "2016-10-05 13:22:46", + "last_due_date_used_for_fit": "2026-06-30" + }, + "best_iteration": 782, + "params": { + "objective": "binary", + "learning_rate": 0.03, + "num_leaves": 31, + "min_data_in_leaf": 200, + "feature_fraction": 0.8, + "bagging_fraction": 0.8, + "bagging_freq": 1, + "lambda_l2": 5.0, + "cat_smooth": 20, + "verbose": -1, + "seed": 7, + "num_threads": 4 + }, + "features": [ + { + "name": "ptp_to_overdue_ratio", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 4.762, + "gain": 1370293.3, + "description": "Promised amount divided by the overdue amount." + }, + { + "name": "dpd_at_asof", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.5628, + "gain": 84857.2, + "description": "Days past due when the promise is made (offline dpd_at_creation; online case current_dpd)." + }, + { + "name": "loan_missed_instalments_6m", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.4479, + "gain": 23738.4, + "description": "Loan instalments due in the last 6 months not fully paid by as_of (null when the case has no loan)." + }, + { + "name": "card_utilisation_last", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.2008, + "gain": 23704.8, + "description": "Closing balance / credit limit on the last card statement before as_of (case accounts)." + }, + { + "name": "overdue_at_asof", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.1944, + "gain": 139711.2, + "description": "Overdue amount (CAD) when the promise is made (offline overdue_at_creation; online case total_overdue)." + }, + { + "name": "primary_product", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "category", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.1793, + "gain": 28601.7, + "description": "Worst account's product (card, personal_loan, auto_loan, loc, mortgage, overdraft)." + }, + { + "name": "hardship_signal_text", + "built_by": "nlp", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0712, + "gain": 7265.6, + "description": "Strongest hardship signal in notes / transcripts of the last 90 days (0 none, 1 possible, 2 clear). Never penalised: it triggers a hardship offer first (POL-COLL-004 \u00a74.2)." + }, + { + "name": "bureau_score_at_asof", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0686, + "gain": 8760.9, + "description": "Latest bureau risk score pulled before as_of (300-900)." + }, + { + "name": "card_days_late_avg_6m", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0641, + "gain": 9687.3, + "description": "Average days late per card statement due in the last 6 months (as known at as_of)." + }, + { + "name": "days_to_due", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0591, + "gain": 26097.3, + "description": "Days between as_of and the promised payment date." + }, + { + "name": "case_age_days", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0507, + "gain": 14565.4, + "description": "Days since the collections case opened." + }, + { + "name": "customer_credit_balance_qe", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0427, + "gain": 9208.8, + "description": "Total card + loan balance of the customer at the last quarter-end before as_of." + }, + { + "name": "outbound_attempts_30d", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0416, + "gain": 2469.8, + "description": "Outbound contact attempts (all channels) in the 30 days before as_of." + }, + { + "name": "bureau_score_delta", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0364, + "gain": 6459.0, + "description": "Change in bureau score between the last two pulls before as_of." + }, + { + "name": "payroll_gap_months_3m", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0331, + "gain": 1649.3, + "description": "Months among the last 3 complete months with no employer payroll credit." + }, + { + "name": "card_min_paid_share_6m", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0322, + "gain": 4098.3, + "description": "Share of card statements due in the last 6 months where the minimum was paid by the due date." + }, + { + "name": "customer_delinquent_accounts_qe", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0321, + "gain": 1089.0, + "description": "Customer accounts past due at the last quarter-end before as_of (all products" + }, + { + "name": "tenure_months", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0315, + "gain": 7144.8, + "description": "Months the customer (earliest of their CRM records) has banked with Maple at as_of." + }, + { + "name": "loan_pad_nsf_90d", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0279, + "gain": 1673.1, + "description": "Pre-authorised debits returned NSF in the last 90 days." + }, + { + "name": "days_since_last_rpc", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0271, + "gain": 3044.4, + "description": "Days since the last right-party contact in the case (null if never reached)." + }, + { + "name": "income_change_3m", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0246, + "gain": 3160.6, + "description": "Income credits in the last 3 complete months vs the 3 months before (relative change)." + }, + { + "name": "payment_method_promised", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "category", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0207, + "gain": 2162.9, + "description": "Payment method the customer promised to use (null when not captured)." + }, + { + "name": "days_since_last_broken_ptp", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0195, + "gain": 1297.0, + "description": "Days since the last promise in this case was broken (null if none)." + }, + { + "name": "payroll_delay_days", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0189, + "gain": 2927.1, + "description": "Days from the last employer payroll credit (complete months before as_of) to as_of; null without payroll history." + }, + { + "name": "rpc_rate_30d", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0175, + "gain": 1510.0, + "description": "Share of outbound calls in the last 30 days that reached the right party." + }, + { + "name": "inbound_contacts_30d", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0172, + "gain": 4126.5, + "description": "Customer-initiated contacts (inbound call" + }, + { + "name": "accounts_in_case", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0164, + "gain": 118.6, + "description": "Number of accounts in the case (2 = multi-product promise)." + }, + { + "name": "prior_kept_ptp_count", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0123, + "gain": 1316.9, + "description": "Promises in this case kept or partially kept before as_of." + }, + { + "name": "digital_clicks_30d", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.01, + "gain": 235.7, + "description": "SMS payment-link and email clicks in the last 30 days." + }, + { + "name": "hardship_coded_90d", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0093, + "gain": 871.8, + "description": "Agent coded a hardship mention on a contact in the last 90 days (1/0). Never penalised: hardship routes to an eligible programme first (POL-COLL-004 \u00a74.2)." + }, + { + "name": "loan_paid_late_6m", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0093, + "gain": 1051.4, + "description": "Loan instalments due in the last 6 months paid after their due date (before as_of)." + }, + { + "name": "sentiment_last", + "built_by": "nlp", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.009, + "gain": 498.7, + "description": "Tone of the latest conversation in the last 90 days (-2 hostile" + }, + { + "name": "customer_accounts_qe", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0083, + "gain": 1178.4, + "description": "Accounts the customer (golden id) held at the last quarter-end before as_of." + }, + { + "name": "ptp_channel", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "category", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.007, + "gain": 882.2, + "description": "Channel the promise was taken on (call" + }, + { + "name": "ptp_intent_strength_text", + "built_by": "nlp", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0065, + "gain": 556.5, + "description": "Intent-to-pay strength (0-1) in the latest conversation of the last 30 days that mentioned a payment." + }, + { + "name": "dispute_raised_90d", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0053, + "gain": 124.6, + "description": "A dispute was raised on a contact in the last 90 days (1/0). Disputed amounts pause payment asks (PRC-COLL-012 \u00a76.1)." + }, + { + "name": "payments_90d", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0038, + "gain": 325.7, + "description": "Payments received on the case in the last 90 days (system payment_received events)." + }, + { + "name": "prior_cases_12m", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0037, + "gain": 564.3, + "description": "Collections cases for the customer in the 12 months before this case opened." + }, + { + "name": "last_call_silence_ratio", + "built_by": "voice", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0034, + "gain": 46.8, + "description": "Share of the last recorded call that was silence." + }, + { + "name": "dispute_text", + "built_by": "nlp", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0028, + "gain": 194.5, + "description": "Customer disputed a charge or the debt in a note or transcript of the last 90 days (1/0)." + }, + { + "name": "last_call_duration_sec", + "built_by": "voice", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0018, + "gain": 20.4, + "description": "Duration of the last recorded call in seconds." + }, + { + "name": "last_call_customer_talk_ratio", + "built_by": "voice", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0018, + "gain": 30.1, + "description": "Share of the last recorded call the customer spoke (speech analytics)." + }, + { + "name": "prior_broken_ptp_count", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0011, + "gain": 16.0, + "description": "Promises in this case already broken before as_of." + }, + { + "name": "overtalk_90d", + "built_by": "voice", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.001, + "gain": 20.8, + "description": "Times agent and customer spoke over each other on calls in the last 90 days (friction signal)." + }, + { + "name": "entry_dpd", + "built_by": "sql", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0, + "gain": 0.0, + "description": "Days past due when the case opened." + }, + { + "name": "last_recording_pause_count", + "built_by": "voice", + "dtype": "int", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0, + "gain": 0.0, + "description": "Customer pauses over 1 second in the last call with a recording (hesitation; 2" + }, + { + "name": "last_recording_filler_rate", + "built_by": "voice", + "dtype": "float", + "mean_abs_shap": 0.0, + "gain": 0.0, + "description": "Customer 'um / uh / euh' per word in the last call with a recording (hesitation)." + } + ], + "categories": { + "ptp_channel": [ + "app", + "call", + "ivr", + "sms_reply", + "web" + ], + "payment_method_promised": [ + "branch", + "debit_card", + "e_transfer", + "online_banking", + "pad" + ], + "primary_product": [ + "auto_loan", + "card", + "loc", + "mortgage", + "overdraft", + "personal_loan" + ] + }, + "metrics": { + "valid": { + "n": 17076, + "base_rate": 0.466, + "mean_p": 0.4662, + "auc": 0.953, + "pr_auc": 0.9388, + "brier": 0.0807, + "brier_baseline": 0.2488, + "log_loss": 0.237 + }, + "test": { + "n": 61688, + "base_rate": 0.5906, + "mean_p": 0.6151, + "auc": 0.9465, + "pr_auc": 0.959, + "brier": 0.0864, + "brier_baseline": 0.2418, + "log_loss": 0.2513 + }, + "test_uncalibrated": { + "n": 61688, + "base_rate": 0.5906, + "mean_p": 0.6049, + "auc": 0.9467, + "pr_auc": 0.9634, + "brier": 0.0858, + "brier_baseline": 0.2418, + "log_loss": 0.2503 + }, + "train": { + "n": 125339, + "base_rate": 0.3385, + "mean_p": 0.3384, + "auc": 0.9796, + "pr_auc": 0.9608, + "brier": 0.0618, + "brier_baseline": 0.2239, + "log_loss": 0.1844 + } + }, + "incumbent_comparison": { + "n_overlap": 29970, + "note": "incumbent scored 0-25 days after the promise was made; ours scores at promise creation", + "incumbent_v2.1": { + "n": 29970, + "base_rate": 0.5742, + "mean_p": 0.5129, + "auc": 0.7123, + "pr_auc": 0.7567, + "brier": 0.22, + "brier_baseline": 0.2445, + "log_loss": 0.6348 + }, + "ptp_break_v1.0": { + "n": 29970, + "base_rate": 0.5742, + "mean_p": 0.5956, + "auc": 0.9527, + "pr_auc": 0.9614, + "brier": 0.0809, + "brier_baseline": 0.2445, + "log_loss": 0.2356 + } + }, + "calibration_test": [ + { + "bin": 1, + "mean_pred": 0.001, + "observed": 0.0, + "n": 6169 + }, + { + "bin": 2, + "mean_pred": 0.0011, + "observed": 0.0005, + "n": 6169 + }, + { + "bin": 3, + "mean_pred": 0.1572, + "observed": 0.1261, + "n": 6169 + }, + { + "bin": 4, + "mean_pred": 0.6193, + "observed": 0.6021, + "n": 6168 + }, + { + "bin": 5, + "mean_pred": 0.6668, + "observed": 0.5928, + "n": 6169 + }, + { + "bin": 6, + "mean_pred": 0.7428, + "observed": 0.65, + "n": 6169 + }, + { + "bin": 7, + "mean_pred": 0.966, + "observed": 0.9379, + "n": 6168 + }, + { + "bin": 8, + "mean_pred": 0.999, + "observed": 0.9992, + "n": 6169 + }, + { + "bin": 9, + "mean_pred": 0.999, + "observed": 0.9994, + "n": 6169 + }, + { + "bin": 10, + "mean_pred": 0.999, + "observed": 0.9984, + "n": 6169 + } + ], + "sources": { + "decision_context": "present", + "prior_channel_rates": "present", + "prior_call_hours": "present", + "prior_ptp_break": "present", + "prior_offer_outcomes": "present", + "hardship_programs": "present", + "incumbent_ptp_scores": "present", + "case_features": "present", + "ptp_training": "present", + "ptp_open_creation": "present", + "case_text_features": "present", + "interaction_insights": "present", + "ptp_scores": "present", + "nba_recommendations": "present" + }, + "feature_registry": "layer3/feature_store/registry.yaml", + "registry_version": "2.1", + "leakage_gate": { + "status": "pass", + "inputs_checked": 47, + "banned_names_checked": 41, + "source": "layer3.governance.BANNED_FOR_MODELS | SAFEGUARD_ONLY" + }, + "missing_features": [] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/artifacts/models/ptp_break_v1.0.txt b/artifacts/models/ptp_break_v1.0.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..35e4510cdedc777b3e9634e6d4d676e1627484ce --- /dev/null +++ b/artifacts/models/ptp_break_v1.0.txt @@ -0,0 +1,16235 @@ +tree +version=v4 +num_class=1 +num_tree_per_iteration=1 +label_index=0 +max_feature_idx=46 +objective=binary 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+[cat_smooth: 20] +[max_cat_to_onehot: 4] +[top_k: 20] +[monotone_constraints: ] +[monotone_constraints_method: basic] +[monotone_penalty: 0] +[feature_contri: ] +[forcedsplits_filename: ] +[refit_decay_rate: 0.9] +[cegb_tradeoff: 1] +[cegb_penalty_split: 0] +[cegb_penalty_feature_lazy: ] +[cegb_penalty_feature_coupled: ] +[path_smooth: 0] +[interaction_constraints: ] +[verbosity: -1] +[saved_feature_importance_type: 0] +[use_quantized_grad: 0] +[num_grad_quant_bins: 4] +[quant_train_renew_leaf: 0] +[stochastic_rounding: 1] +[linear_tree: 0] +[max_bin: 255] +[max_bin_by_feature: ] +[min_data_in_bin: 3] +[bin_construct_sample_cnt: 200000] +[data_random_seed: 61] +[is_enable_sparse: 1] +[enable_bundle: 1] +[use_missing: 1] +[zero_as_missing: 0] +[feature_pre_filter: 1] +[pre_partition: 0] +[two_round: 0] +[header: 0] +[label_column: ] +[weight_column: ] +[group_column: ] +[ignore_column: ] +[categorical_feature: 4,5,9] +[forcedbins_filename: ] +[precise_float_parser: 0] +[parser_config_file: ] +[objective_seed: 15521] +[num_class: 1] +[is_unbalance: 0] +[scale_pos_weight: 1] +[sigmoid: 1] +[boost_from_average: 1] +[reg_sqrt: 0] +[alpha: 0.9] +[fair_c: 1] +[poisson_max_delta_step: 0.7] +[tweedie_variance_power: 1.5] +[lambdarank_truncation_level: 30] +[lambdarank_norm: 1] +[label_gain: ] +[lambdarank_position_bias_regularization: 0] +[eval_at: ] +[multi_error_top_k: 1] +[auc_mu_weights: ] +[num_machines: 1] +[local_listen_port: 12400] +[time_out: 120] +[machine_list_filename: ] +[machines: ] +[gpu_platform_id: -1] +[gpu_device_id: -1] +[gpu_device_id_list: ] +[gpu_use_dp: 0] +[num_gpu: 1] + +end of parameters + +pandas_categorical:[["app", "call", "ivr", "sms_reply", "web"], ["branch", "debit_card", "e_transfer", "online_banking", "pad"], ["auto_loan", "card", "loc", "mortgage", "overdraft", "personal_loan"]] diff --git a/artifacts/nlp/split.json b/artifacts/nlp/split.json new file mode 100644 index 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