# dataset_metadata

dataset_name: forecast_eval_set_example
split_name: train
table_name: forecast_eval_set_example
imported_at_utc: 2026-04-29T04:47:36Z
features_json:
{"schema_version": "v1.0", "release_date": "2026-04-29", "description": "Forecasting evaluation set (initial release): 80 hand-curated questions on real-world events with resolution dates between 2026-03-12 and 2026-04-14, covering yes/no, two-named-entity, and multiple-choice (single-answer and multi-select) formats.", "columns": {"id": "Stable source-side question ID (HuggingFace).", "choice_type": {"type": "TEXT", "enum": ["single", "multi"], "description": "Whether the question requires a single answer ('single') or multiple answers ('multi'). Derived from the number of letters in `answer`."}, "question_type": "yes_no | binary_named | multiple_choice. Selects which prompt template to use.", "event": "The event being predicted.", "options": "JSON array of option labels. yes_no: ['Yes','No']. binary_named: two named entities. multiple_choice: list of choice labels (letter is implied by index: A=options[0], B=options[1], ...).", "answer": "Canonical correct answer as letter(s). yes_no/binary_named: 'A' or 'B'. multiple_choice: comma-separated letters in option order (e.g. 'A, B'). Letter X corresponds to options[index_of_X], where index uses A=0,B=1,...Z=25, [=26, \\=27, ]=28, ^=29, _=30, `=31, a=32, ... when there are >26 options.", "end_time": "Question resolution date (Asia/Shanghai), format 'YYYY-MM-DD'."}, "question_types": {"yes_no": "Binary Yes/No.", "binary_named": "Binary between two named entities (sports teams, fighters, sides, etc.).", "multiple_choice": ">=3 options labeled A, B, C, ...; multiple correct allowed; 'None of the above' is a valid answer."}, "row_counts": {"by_question_type": {"binary_named": 3, "multiple_choice": 40, "yes_no": 37, "total": 80}, "by_choice_type": {"multi": 8, "single": 72, "total": 80}, "by_question_type_and_choice_type": {"binary_named/single": 3, "multiple_choice/multi": 8, "multiple_choice/single": 32, "yes_no/single": 37}}, "end_time_range": {"min": "2026-03-12", "max": "2026-04-14", "timezone": "Asia/Shanghai"}, "prompt_reconstruction": {"agent_role": "You are an agent that can predict future events.", "guidance": "Do not use any other format. Do not refuse to make a prediction. Do not say \"I cannot predict the future.\" You must make a clear prediction based on the best data currently available, using the box format specified above.", "yes_no_output_format": "Your task is to predict whether the event will occur based on your analysis.\nYour prediction will be scored based on its accuracy. You will only receive points if your answer is correct.\nYour final answer MUST end with this exact format:\n\\boxed{Yes} or \\boxed{No}", "binary_named_output_format": "Your task is to predict which of the two outcomes will occur based on your analysis.\nYour prediction will be scored based on its accuracy. You will only receive points if your answer is correct.\nYour final answer MUST end with this exact format:\n\\boxed{<options[0]>} or \\boxed{<options[1]>}", "prompt_template": "{agent_role} The event to be predicted: \"{event} (resolved around {end_time} (GMT+8)).{outcomes_block}\"\n\nIMPORTANT: Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:\n{output_format}\n{guidance}", "outcomes_block_rule": "Empty for yes_no/binary_named (since options are implicit in output_format). For multiple_choice: '\\n' + 'A. <label>\\nB. <label>\\n...' built from options.", "multiple_choice_single_output_format": "This is a SINGLE-ANSWER question: exactly ONE of the listed options is correct.\nYour prediction will be scored on strict equality with the unique correct letter; choosing the wrong letter, or selecting more than one letter, scores zero.\nYour final answer MUST end with this exact format:\nthe single correct letter inside the box, e.g. \\boxed{A}.\nDo NOT list more than one letter, even if you believe two outcomes are tied — pick the one you find most likely.", "multiple_choice_multi_output_format": "This is a MULTI-SELECT question: ONE OR MORE of the listed options can be correct.\nYour prediction will be scored on strict equality with the FULL set of correct letters: any extra letter, any missing letter, or any wrong letter scores zero. You must include ALL correct options and NO incorrect options.\nYour final answer MUST end with this exact format:\nlisting all correct option(s) you have identified, separated by commas, within the box.\nFor example: \\boxed{A} for a single correct option, or \\boxed{B, C} for multiple correct options."}, "provenance": "Source: HuggingFace forecasting dataset (levels 1+2 only). Curated through multi-pass cleaning: (1) source-side broken-row removal and column flattening; (2) end_time / answer-encoding / option-label normalization; (3) downsizing 322 -> 200 -> 100 -> 80 with placeholder/noise removal, deduplication, and ambiguity audit; (4) final HIGH+MEDIUM ambiguity remediation (4 rows reworded for explicit time anchoring, unit explicitness, and binary framing); (5) CRITICAL fix on one S&P 500 multi-select truth set to satisfy monotonic-threshold logic. All 80 truths verified end-to-end via parser round-trip; 0 critical / 0 high / 0 medium issues remaining."}


# forecast_eval_set_example

id: 6995b1073ea64b005b11f285
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
answer: A
end_time: 2026-03-14
event:
Which men's basketball team will win the Big 12 Conference Championship tournament in the 2025-26 season?

options:
["Arizona", "Baylor", "Brigham Young University (BYU)", "Houston", "Iowa State", "Kansas", "Kansas State"]


id: 698f198bda7a8b006575444c
choice_type: multi
question_type: multiple_choice
event: Which movies will win multiple Oscars? (2026)
answer: A, B, C, D
end_time: 2026-03-15
options:
["One Battle After Another", "Sinners", "Frankenstein", "KPop Demon Hunters", "F1", "Sentimental Value", "Hamnet", "Marty Supreme", "The Secret Agent", "Avatar: Fire and Ash", "Train Dreams", "Bugonia", "Blue Moon", "It Was Just An Accident"]


id: 698f198bda7a8b0065754455
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
event: Best Lead Actress winner? (2026 Oscars)
answer: A
end_time: 2026-03-15
options:
["Jessie Buckley - Hamnet", "Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You", "Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue", "Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value", "Emma Stone - Bugonia"]


id: 698f198bda7a8b006575445f
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
event: Best International Feature winner? (2026 Oscars)
answer: A
end_time: 2026-03-15
options:
["Sentimental Value", "The Secret Agent", "It Was Just an Accident", "Sirat", "The Voice of Hind Rajab"]


id: 6998540873bcba006869e614
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
event: Who will win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells ATP 1000)?
answer: A
end_time: 2026-03-17
options:
["Carlos Alcaraz (1)", "Jannik Sinner (2)", "Novak Djokovic (3)", "Alexander Zverev (4)", "Alex de Minaur (6)", "Taylor Fritz (7)", "Félix Auger-Aliassime (8)"]


id: 698c7689b06cd2005cde5b30
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
options: ["Lower by 0.5% or more", "Lower by 0.25%", "Maintain the same rate", "Rise by 0.25% or more"]
answer: B
end_time: 2026-03-19
event:
How did the Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil) change the SELIC target rate at the monetary policy meeting on March 17‑18, 2026?


id: 6995b1073ea64b005b11f2a0
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
options: ["Lower", "Same", "Higher"]
answer: B
end_time: 2026-03-19
event:
At close of business on 19 March 2026, will the most recently announced Bank of England (BoE) "Bank Rate" be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 5 February 2026?


id: 69a830e529c5bb005eeeb10d
choice_type: multi
question_type: multiple_choice
answer: D, E
end_time: 2026-03-19
event:
During the UEFA Champions League Knockout Round Playoffs (Mar 10th–Mar 18th, 2026), which of the following prop outcomes will occur at least once across all matches? (Select all that apply.)

options:
["Goal in the first 5 minutes of any game", "At least one penalty shootout", "1+ Own Goals scored", "2 (or more) come-from-behind wins in second leg of the playoff", "Stoppage time winner", "From 2 goals down to level during a match", "3 (or more) Players get red cards (in any fashion)", "5 (or more) draws", "2 (or more) 0-0 draws"]


id: 6995b1073ea64b005b11f2a2
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
event: What will be the closing price of lumber on 20 March 2026, according to Trading Economics?
answer: E
end_time: 2026-03-20
options:
["Less than $450", "At least $450, but less than $500", "At least $500, but less than $550", "At least $550, but less than $600", "At least $600, but less than $650", "At least $650, but less than $700", "At least $700, but less than $750"]


id: 69b5552c6ccead0066d5b474
choice_type: multi
question_type: multiple_choice
event: 2026 Men's March Madness Sweet 16 Predictions!
answer: A, D, E, F
end_time: 2026-03-20
options:
["At least one 1 seed will NOT advance to the Sweet 16", "7 or more conferences will have teams advancing to the Sweet 16", "2+ teams from each of the \"Power 5\" advance to the Sweet 16", "ZERO West Coast Conference teams advance to the Sweet 16", "All 2 Seeds advance to the Sweet 16", "5 or more Big Ten teams will advance to the Sweet 16"]


id: 699702870408ab00683a025e
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
event: How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests before March 20th (up to 10k)?
answer: E
end_time: 2026-03-21
options:
["0 - 99 deaths", "100 - 499 deaths", "500 - 999 deaths", "1,000 - 4,999 deaths", "5,000 - 9,999 deaths", "10,000+ deaths"]


id: 69b2b226782d0900685d5fb4
choice_type: single
question_type: yes_no
options: ["Yes", "No"]
answer: B
end_time: 2026-03-21
event:
Will Assassin's Creed: Black Flag Resynced (the remake) be officially announced by March 20th, 2026?


id: 6998540873bcba006869e617
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
options: ["Netflix Acquisition", "Paramount Global Acquisition", "Not acquired"]
answer: B
end_time: 2026-03-22
event:
How will Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders vote at the Mar 20, 2026 special meeting regarding a sale of the company?


id: 6998540873bcba006869e61a
choice_type: multi
question_type: multiple_choice
event: Which North American teams will qualify for the 2026 ICPC World Finals?
answer: A, B, C, D, E, H, I, J, K, L, M, N
end_time: 2026-03-22
options:
["University of Waterloo", "Massachusetts Institute of Technology", "Carnegie Mellon University", "Stanford University", "University of Maryland", "Harvard University", "University of Texas at Austin", "University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign", "University of Chicago", "Arizona State University", "Georgia Institute of Technology", "University of Central Florida", "University of British Columbia", "University of Alberta"]


id: 69b7f816d596fb005d43a316
choice_type: multi
question_type: multiple_choice
event: Who will finish top 3 in the 2026 Japanese Grand Prix?
answer: A, B, C
end_time: 2026-03-29
options:
["George Russell", "Kimi Antonelli", "Charles Leclerc", "Lewis Hamilton", "Lando Norris", "Oscar Piastri", "Max Verstappen", "Alex Albon", "Arvid Lindblad", "Franco colapinto", "Valtteri Bottas", "Carlos Sainz", "Pierre Gasly", "Oliver Bearman"]


id: 69ba9b2453c457006694bc63
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
event: Who will win the 2026 Miami Open (Miami WTA 1000)?
answer: A
end_time: 2026-03-30
options:
["Aryna Sabalenka (1)", "Victoria Mboko (10)", "Amanda Anisimova (6)", "Coco Gauff (4)", "Jessica Pegula (5)", "Elena Rybakina (3)", "Iga Swiatek (2)"]


id: 69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2d8
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
event: What range will the percentage change in the S&P 500 over Q1 2026 fall into?
answer: A
end_time: 2026-03-31
options:
["less than 0%", "3% to 4%", "8% to 10%", "at least 10%", "0% to 2%", "2% to 3%", "5% to 6%", "4% to 5%", "6% to 8%"]


id: 69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2d9
choice_type: multi
question_type: multiple_choice
event: S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1 2026
answer: B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J
end_time: 2026-03-31
options:
["the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1", "the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1", "the S&P 500 Index gain at least 3% on any day in Q1", "the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1", "the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1", "the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1", "the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1", "the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1", "the S&P 500 Index gain at least 1% on any day in Q1", "the S&P 500 Index lose at least 1% on any day in Q1"]


id: 69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2e8
choice_type: multi
question_type: multiple_choice
answer: C, F, G
end_time: 2026-03-31
event:
On the final trading day of Q1 2026, which of the following price-level thresholds will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above? (Select all that apply.)

options:
["above 5250", "above 6000", "above 4750", "above 5750", "above 7000", "above 5000", "above 4500", "above 5500", "above 6500"]


id: 69a4319df2cb3b006875e9c3
choice_type: single
question_type: yes_no
options: ["Yes", "No"]
answer: B
end_time: 2026-03-31
event:
Will the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) sustain battle damage caused directly by Iranian military forces before 31 march, 2026?


id: 69b7f816d596fb005d43a317
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
event: F1: Who will win the 2026 Aramco Japanese Grand Prix?
answer: A
end_time: 2026-03-31
options:
["George Russell (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)", "Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)", "Charles Leclerc (Scuderia Ferrari HP)", "Lewis Hamilton (Scuderia Ferrari HP)", "Oliver Bearman (TGR Haas)", "Lando Norris (McLaren Mastercard)", "Pierre Gasly (BTW Alpine)"]


id: 69a6d48ee78a390068a18727
choice_type: single
question_type: yes_no
options: ["Yes", "No"]
answer: B
end_time: 2026-04-02
event:
Will the share of global silver production disrupted by violence in Mexico exceed 5% on April 1, 2026?


id: 69b5552c6ccead0066d5b480
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
event: Outcome of Comey Indictment
answer: A
end_time: 2026-04-02
options:
["Dismissed without a trial", "Dismissed or directed verdict during the trial", "Hung Jury", "Guilty Verdict", "Not Guilty Verdict"]


id: 69ba9b2453c457006694bc73
choice_type: multi
question_type: multiple_choice
event: Which countries will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup from UEFA?
answer: D, I, K
end_time: 2026-04-02
options:
["Italy", "Slovakia", "Northern Ireland", "Sweden", "Kosovo", "Denmark", "Ukraine", "Turkey", "Poland", "Romania", "Bosnia and Herzegovina"]


id: 699c4887d1d3cf005c1e48b5
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
answer: C
end_time: 2026-04-05
event:
How many residents (e-residents, residents and limited residents) will Prospera have on April 5, 2026?

options:
["2275 residents or less", "2276-2475 residents", "2476-2675 residents", "2676-2875 residents", "2876 residents or more"]


id: 69bd3e2828f858005eb938b3
choice_type: single
question_type: binary_named
options: ["Tadej Pogacar", "Mathieu van der Poel"]
answer: A
end_time: 2026-04-06
event:
At the 2026 Ronde van Vlaanderen (Men's), who will finish higher: Tadej Pogacar or Mathieu van der Poel?


id: 69ba9b2453c457006694bc62
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
event: Who will be in sole first place after any round of the 2026 Candidates Tournament?
answer: F
end_time: 2026-04-07
options:
["Fabiano Caruana", "Hikaru Nakamura", "Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa", "Wei Yi", "Anish Giri", "Javokhir Sindarov", "Andrey Esipenko", "Matthias Blübaum"]


id: 6978b007edd409005eef0f9e
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
event: Who will be elected Prime Minister of Hungary in 2026?
answer: A
end_time: 2026-04-12
options:
["Tisza (Péter Magyar)", "Fidesz-KDNP (Viktor Orbán)", "Democratic Coalition (Klára Dobrev)", "Our Homeland Movement (László Toroczkai)"]


id: 69b2b593782d0900685d5fcc
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
event: NBA Atlantic Division Winner
answer: A
end_time: 2026-04-12
options:
["the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division", "the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division", "the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division", "the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division", "the Toronto Raptors win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division"]


id: 69be8f979ade34005c7c742c
choice_type: single
question_type: multiple_choice
event: How many seats will Tisza party win in 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
answer: I
end_time: 2026-04-13
options:
["0 - 79", "80 - 89", "90 - 99", "100 - 104", "105 - 109", "110 - 114", "115 - 119", "120 - 129", "130 - 139"]


id: 69ce6197dcd4cd005c5bf064
choice_type: single
question_type: yes_no
options: ["Yes", "No"]
answer: B
end_time: 2026-04-13
event:
Will the Los Angeles Lakers finish the 2025-26 regular season as the #3 seed or higher in the Western Conference?


