diff --git "a/data/05_evt/train.jsonl" "b/data/05_evt/train.jsonl" new file mode 100644--- /dev/null +++ "b/data/05_evt/train.jsonl" @@ -0,0 +1,228 @@ +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-00001", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-00001", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "300750", "stock_name": "宁德时代", "event_date": "2025-01-15", "event_description": "公司发布2024年第三季度财报，营收同比增长28%，净利润42亿元，显著高于市场一致预期。", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-15", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-01-15\n\n事件：公司发布2024年第三季度财报，营收同比增长28%，净利润42亿元，显著高于市场一致预期。\n\n股票：宁德时代（300750）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.2, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "b_events.csv", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v1", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-15", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "cutoff_date": "2025-01-15", "forecast_origin": "2025-01-15", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-01-16T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-01-21/1222389705.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-01-16", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "bcba07d0d6d0b1c91787b23df9ab285eb2ef5c08df531f428a6095d74883aa1b", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-00002", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-00002", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600519", "stock_name": "贵州茅台", "event_date": "2025-03-28", "event_description": "公司披露年报，白酒销量略低于市场预期，直营渠道增速放缓。", "cutoff_date": "2025-03-28", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-03-28\n\n事件：公司披露年报，白酒销量略低于市场预期，直营渠道增速放缓。\n\n股票：贵州茅台（600519）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.8, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "b_events.csv", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v1", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-03-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "cutoff_date": "2025-03-28", "forecast_origin": "2025-03-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-03-31T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-04-03/1222993920.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-03-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e29f9c3d402a071a5eea32ed82a3656c19b7c76a81c35f963a5fb6db44fb683d", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-00003", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-00003", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000858", "stock_name": "五粮液", "event_date": "2025-04-22", "event_description": "一季报显示净利率同比提升，费用率下降，业绩好于一致预期。", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-22", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-04-22\n\n事件：一季报显示净利率同比提升，费用率下降，业绩好于一致预期。\n\n股票：五粮液（000858）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.1, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "b_events.csv", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v1", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-22", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "cutoff_date": "2025-04-22", "forecast_origin": "2025-04-22", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-04-23T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-04-26/1223311527.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-04-23", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4a9680b0bfdd33f05b5a22e8e9907e14e1cf25715cbbf4895256b1ab8761982e", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-00004", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-00004", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "601318", "stock_name": "中国平安", "event_date": "2025-08-20", "event_description": "中报显示寿险新业务价值低于预期，投资收益承压。", "cutoff_date": "2025-08-20", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-08-20\n\n事件：中报显示寿险新业务价值低于预期，投资收益承压。\n\n股票：中国平安（601318）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.5, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "b_events.csv", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v1", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-08-20", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "cutoff_date": "2025-08-20", "forecast_origin": "2025-08-20", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-08-21T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-08-20/1224519435.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-08-21", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "fb52e10aafa8049b502f953dd69a452a1fa0e2bfb6b3b427ad76faabeee1b1b7", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-00005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-00005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "002594", "stock_name": "比亚迪", "event_date": "2025-10-30", "event_description": "三季报新能源汽车销量与毛利率双双超预期，海外收入占比提升。", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-30", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-10-30\n\n事件：三季报新能源汽车销量与毛利率双双超预期，海外收入占比提升。\n\n股票：比亚迪（002594）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 4.0, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "b_events.csv", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v1", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "cutoff_date": "2025-10-30", "forecast_origin": "2025-10-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-10-31T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-10-31/1224776127.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-10-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "c2a931b1466abde4924f5e9a6d436b2fcc913b1387d7d03dc2f27c4439a48bd3", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231020-600519", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-20", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231020-600519", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600519", "stock_name": "贵州茅台", "event_date": "2023-10-20", "event_description": "贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 13.42，一致预期 13.67，surprise -1.83%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-20", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-20\n\n事件：贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 13.42，一致预期 13.67，surprise -1.83%。\n\n股票：贵州茅台（600519）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.857667, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-20", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-20", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-23T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-21/1218110141.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-23", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "13d07be03387148a596d0d8928a0d80c83913b5f560e9fac2c0e3e79bc9343fc", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231027-000858", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-27", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231027-000858", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000858", "stock_name": "五粮液", "event_date": "2023-10-27", "event_description": "五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.5，一致预期 1.41，surprise 6.38%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-27", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-27\n\n事件：五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.5，一致预期 1.41，surprise 6.38%。\n\n股票：五粮液（000858）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.674282, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-27", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-27", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-28/1218182838.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-30", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e40a79935d3909700d8032a66697cef3e0ac7e5bcd51f4fe4bf1fad2b232bf9c", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231028-601318", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231028-601318", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "601318", "stock_name": "中国平安", "event_date": "2023-10-28", "event_description": "中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.88，一致预期 1.38，surprise -36.23%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-28\n\n事件：中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.88，一致预期 1.38，surprise -36.23%。\n\n股票：中国平安（601318）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.28774, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-28/1218186509.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-30", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "d15a947d4da14313c01bd7b7cca70709d57dc15a40d6187f0a34b1f1a57830db", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240119-600036", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-01-19", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240119-600036", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600036", "stock_name": "招商银行", "event_date": "2024-01-19", "event_description": "招商银行（600036）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.19，一致预期 1.13，surprise 5.31%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-01-19", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-01-19\n\n事件：招商银行（600036）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.19，一致预期 1.13，surprise 5.31%。\n\n股票：招商银行（600036）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.265044, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2024-01-19", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-01-19", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-01-22T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-01-20/1218955727.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-01-22", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "bfe933ab2566c0a287f617d1d6b4ac184a7c6d9cb8fe9ac0b78f698c74b0b0cb", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231019-300750", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-19", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231019-300750", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "300750", "stock_name": "宁德时代", "event_date": "2023-10-19", "event_description": "宁德时代（300750）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.14，一致预期 2.64，surprise -18.77%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-19", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-19\n\n事件：宁德时代（300750）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.14，一致预期 2.64，surprise -18.77%。\n\n股票：宁德时代（300750）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.844875, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-19", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-19", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-20T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-20/1218095874.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-20", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "520ce74d77f5267ea92c75a627e20deef901aab1431d359e9f93f43c28289370", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231030-002594", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-30", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231030-002594", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "002594", "stock_name": "比亚迪", "event_date": "2023-10-30", "event_description": "比亚迪（002594）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.11，一致预期 0.86，surprise 28.65%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-30", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-30\n\n事件：比亚迪（002594）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.11，一致预期 0.86，surprise 28.65%。\n\n股票：比亚迪（002594）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.409381, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-31T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-31/1218200103.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-31", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "a9b6e62e653cb6f8e40a5320312fb3fde0184d6b1d24372429006e9ae2da7967", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240201-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-02-01", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240201-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2024-02-01", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.18，一致预期 2.11，surprise 3.55%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-02-01", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-02-01\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.18，一致预期 2.11，surprise 3.55%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.786341, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2024-02-01", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-02-01", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-02-02T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019324000005/aapl-20240201.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-02-02", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "0bcafe578e4b5a244d3a4ea1b75fd84d6c2017ea1598355d99d0b23fb408f6af", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240130-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-01-30", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240130-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2024-01-30", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.93，一致预期 2.77，surprise 5.83%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-01-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-01-30\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.93，一致预期 2.77，surprise 5.83%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.963003, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2024-01-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-01-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-01-31T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017024008809/msft-20240130.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-01-31", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "3f030341614b2b9677a607b48965dbd18481f66de412f4486dd9e4fa7f869b4b", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240112-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-01-12", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240112-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2024-01-12", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.04，一致预期 3.6，surprise -15.65%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-01-12", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-01-12\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.04，一致预期 3.6，surprise -15.65%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.356429, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2024-01-12", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-01-12", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-01-16T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961724000049/jpm-20240112.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-01-16", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "97e7534142030e7a1ae009727b02da100acd71e56f015cd4dad98f0f0ab9fccc", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20231115-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-11-15", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20231115-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2023-11-15", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.66，一致预期 4.2，surprise 10.76%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-11-15", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-11-15\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.66，一致预期 4.2，surprise 10.76%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 5.523067, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-11-15", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-11-15", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-11-16T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/1115/2023111500283.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-11-16", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "b67cc9a1ef4ed4dc26f2c414bcf0b25d68df24f4b2e9ad03c7453bcc6e50e390", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240221-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-02-21", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240221-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2024-02-21", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.08，一致预期 0.24，surprise -68.85%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-02-21", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-02-21\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.08，一致预期 0.24，surprise -68.85%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -4.868322, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2024-02-21", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-02-21", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-02-22T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0221/2024022100137.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-02-22", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "752698753a81fe43bc01345226e136fafc487ff7168756469bfc8ade6ba0c52b", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240207-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-02-07", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240207-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2024-02-07", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.37，一致预期 2.41，surprise -1.70%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-02-07", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-02-07\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.37，一致预期 2.41，surprise -1.70%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -7.499996, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2024-02-07", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-02-07", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-02-08T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0207/2024020700912.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-02-08", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "89b9c90f1394ba1257d561bfe41d4bf35fc7b7799a620402ffe72b872c5fe0ea", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260416-600519", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-16", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260416-600519", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600519", "stock_name": "贵州茅台", "event_date": "2026-04-16", "event_description": "贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 14.13，一致预期 18.61，surprise -24.06%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-16", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-04-16\n\n事件：贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 14.13，一致预期 18.61，surprise -24.06%。\n\n股票：贵州茅台（600519）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -4.106304, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-16", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-04-16", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-17/1225114741.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-04-17", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "cb19e2a04cb52b8c8f41c231e3799173d242e71d7c5465b58c4b33e7469573e2", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260430-000858", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260430-000858", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000858", "stock_name": "五粮液", "event_date": "2026-04-30", "event_description": "五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 -3.27，一致预期 0.93，surprise -451.61%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-30", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-04-30\n\n事件：五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 -3.27，一致预期 0.93，surprise -451.61%。\n\n股票：五粮液（000858）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -6.182626, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-04-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-05-06T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-30/1225273091.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-05-06", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "cc3a29548e0b4e38f22a82c322bda05a38a7b0348d911a2e3dc41dfe38b61ce3", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260123-600036", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-01-23", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260123-600036", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600036", "stock_name": "招商银行", "event_date": "2026-01-23", "event_description": "招商银行（600036）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.27，一致预期 1.47，surprise -13.61%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-01-23", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-01-23\n\n事件：招商银行（600036）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.27��一致预期 1.47，surprise -13.61%。\n\n股票：招商银行（600036）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.449147, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-01-23", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-01-23", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-01-26T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-01-24/1224947770.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-01-26", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e9e9d4f6f1b389d42192c9be10cf4056bf6c3c08966d503aa9812e39b9073ccc", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260309-300750", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-09", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260309-300750", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "300750", "stock_name": "宁德时代", "event_date": "2026-03-09", "event_description": "宁德时代（300750）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.62，一致预期 4.01，surprise 15.03%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-09", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-03-09\n\n事件：宁德时代（300750）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.62，一致预期 4.01，surprise 15.03%。\n\n股票：宁德时代（300750）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 6.06872, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-09", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-03-09", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-03-10T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-03-10/1225002214.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-03-10", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "02a4b3a9e8af21a7b857b67308ff0984f50bb3d8b31b5ff3f054935a693cecd5", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260327-002594", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-27", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260327-002594", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "002594", "stock_name": "比亚迪", "event_date": "2026-03-27", "event_description": "比亚迪（002594）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.98，一致预期 1.42，surprise -30.99%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-27", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-03-27\n\n事件：比亚迪（002594）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.98，一致预期 1.42，surprise -30.99%。\n\n股票：比亚迪（002594）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请��格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.821412, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-27", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-03-27", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-03-28/1225045351.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-03-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4f274930f6a3c6eae29fc0178d8c060e0b45c0314b576854b6dcaf904a78ae50", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20260129-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-01-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20260129-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2026-01-29", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.84，一致预期 2.67，surprise 6.34%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-01-29", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-01-29\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.84，一致预期 2.67，surprise 6.34%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.185466, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-01-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-01-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-01-30T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019326000005/aapl-20260129.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-01-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "ee527568d2e7bb2a01cba44ed55baac80ff4f6a18f506ef0fce514c535c003e1", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20260128-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-01-28", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20260128-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2026-01-28", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.14，一致预期 3.92，surprise 5.69%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-01-28", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-01-28\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.14，一致预期 3.92，surprise 5.69%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -9.796493, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-01-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-01-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-01-29T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526027207/msft-20251231.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-01-29", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "a857804e551c938be00a0345dc2bfd38a4d75c75e9692739f6ab4d5a24a29314", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20260113-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-01-13", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20260113-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2026-01-13", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.63，一致预期 4.82，surprise -3.91%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-01-13", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-01-13\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.63，一致预期 4.82，surprise -3.91%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -5.121882, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-01-13", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-01-13", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-01-14T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828026001902/jpm-20260113.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-01-14", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "1b744feb3eadd535ffbfa834299b921cc076e45003ca1d684608a10cc2f13dab", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20260318-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-18", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20260318-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2026-03-18", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.97，一致预期 6.86，surprise 1.48%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-18", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-03-18\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.97，一致预期 6.86，surprise 1.48%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -6.727273, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-18", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-03-18", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0318/2026031800388.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-03-19", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "a0b33463394dbc5330239f70acafa74d34d73006263572d15f8964a8be8ed2ad", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20260225-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-02-25", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20260225-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2026-02-25", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.37，一致预期 0.28，surprise 31.91%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-02-25", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-02-25\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.37，一致预期 0.28，surprise 31.91%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 7.169251, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-02-25", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-02-25", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-02-26T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0225/2026022500111.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-02-26", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "28f347ac1165f553144ba9bd2de87dbb8aab655da02312e459beba61772972b8", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20260319-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-19", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20260319-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2026-03-19", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.89，一致预期 1.39，surprise -35.92%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-19", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-03-19\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.89，一致预期 1.39，surprise -35.92%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -10.16703, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-19", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-03-19", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0319/2026031900801.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-03-20", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e65213eb56059a350013e24dcab0b48506ed17e687635ee5b877f59b0b9a4771", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231025-600276", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-25", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231025-600276", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600276", "stock_name": "恒瑞医药", "event_date": "2023-10-25", "event_description": "恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.19，一致预期 0.21，surprise -7.32%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-25", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-25\n\n事件：恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.19，一致预期 0.21，surprise -7.32%。\n\n股票：恒瑞医药（600276）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.822117, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-25", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-25", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-26T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-26/1218148216.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-26", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "6ca0cf8badd43b67cd0eb7193f99437386713f6b8a57ab1b106ce3182349b415", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231028-601398", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231028-601398", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "601398", "stock_name": "工商银行", "event_date": "2023-10-28", "event_description": "工商银行（601398）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.28，一致预期 0.27，surprise 3.70%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-28\n\n事件：工商银行（601398）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.28，一致预期 0.27，surprise 3.70%。\n\n股票：工商银行（601398）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.677149, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-28/1218190968.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-30", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "bfacab645ccd20375451665f5459c2c9d7befc385cbecbd084656eed03645ae3", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231030-000333", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-30", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231030-000333", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000333", "stock_name": "美的集团", "event_date": "2023-10-30", "event_description": "美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.39，一致预期 1.38，surprise 0.43%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-30", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-30\n\n事件：美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.39，一致预期 1.38，surprise 0.43%。\n\n股票：美的集团（000333）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.525873, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-31T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-31/1218202543.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-31", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "9ae8ee5e7b8861d3d5e7aeb77839109015fb97c4734e02d23ef82469246abf04", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240808-600519", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-08", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240808-600519", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600519", "stock_name": "贵州茅台", "event_date": "2024-08-08", "event_description": "贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 14.02，一致预期 14.22，surprise -1.41%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-08", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-08\n\n事件：贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 14.02，一致预期 14.22，surprise -1.41%。\n\n股票：贵州茅台（600519）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.504772, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-08", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-08", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-09T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-09/1220825189.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-09", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "73f3518fa60f51e8cfe0fdae841b93a745e52ae770d2f33458d711f2f6b19726", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240828-000858", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240828-000858", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000858", "stock_name": "五粮液", "event_date": "2024-08-28", "event_description": "五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.29，一致预期 1.29，surprise 0.30%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-28\n\n事件：五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.29，一致预期 1.29，surprise 0.30%。\n\n股票：五粮液（000858）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.917589, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-29T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-29/1221032897.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-29", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "a4ff46e63f220f2961f5b63d0638cf94d5da639fac790eeba9a57935f856e707", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240822-601318", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-22", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240822-601318", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "601318", "stock_name": "中国平安", "event_date": "2024-08-22", "event_description": "中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.18，一致预期 1.61，surprise 35.40%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-22", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-22\n\n事件：中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.18，一致预期 1.61，surprise 35.40%。\n\n股票：中国平安（601318）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.288056, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-22", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-22", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-23T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-23/1220953911.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-23", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "42e9917e288fd1ec0167ff85696abc1f965fc2c78c21df7c462f14edcb78c434", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240829-600036", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240829-600036", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600036", "stock_name": "招商银行", "event_date": "2024-08-29", "event_description": "招商银行（600036）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.37，一致预期 1.37，surprise 0.36%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-29", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-29\n\n事件：招商银行（600036）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.37，一致预期 1.37，surprise 0.36%。\n\n股票：招商银行（600036）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -4.542749, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-30/1221051750.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "b0c2efb28d9fffa18637aa735006278c16b59cb1a9d583af576639e0902bf19a", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240828-002594", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240828-002594", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "002594", "stock_name": "比亚迪", "event_date": "2024-08-28", "event_description": "比亚迪（002594）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.13，一致预期 0.8，surprise 42.03%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-28\n\n事件：比亚迪（002594）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.13，一致预期 0.8，surprise 42.03%。\n\n股票：比亚迪（002594）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.470926, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-29T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-29/1221030552.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-29", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "bb862f927737e35d71a4f1b9f9ada43dd6bad6966cebe439ebdd660d7b361ac2", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240821-600276", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-21", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240821-600276", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600276", "stock_name": "恒瑞医药", "event_date": "2024-08-21", "event_description": "恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.32，一致预期 0.19，surprise 68.42%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-21", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-21\n\n事件：恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.32，一致预期 0.19，surprise 68.42%。\n\n股票：恒瑞医药（600276）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.976331, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-21", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-21", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-22T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-22/1220938296.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-22", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "296602a0af6c5880883b05785b2fbcb3d61f4e954832872f341810039db41909", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240830-601398", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240830-601398", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "601398", "stock_name": "工商银行", "event_date": "2024-08-30", "event_description": "工商银行（601398）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.22，一致预期 0.23，surprise -4.35%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-30", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-30\n\n事件：工商银行（601398）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.22，一致预期 0.23，surprise -4.35%。\n\n股票：工商银行（601398）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -4.501608, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-09-02T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-31/1221087759.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-09-02", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "94169d375065359eb366273b03662f6e8f9cc9b5aadb17c56e753d5ce0c20ada", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240819-000333", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-19", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240819-000333", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000333", "stock_name": "美的集团", "event_date": "2024-08-19", "event_description": "美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.59，一致预期 1.54，surprise 3.53%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-19", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-19\n\n事件：美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.59，一致预期 1.54，surprise 3.53%。\n\n股票：美的集团（000333）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以���面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.073207, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-19", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-19", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-20T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-20/1220909926.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-20", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "dce78130339b6181cb134240d3b6ad7e06ba54c23af38829ba09733abafbbda0", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240801-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-01", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240801-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2024-08-01", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.4，一致预期 1.34，surprise 4.36%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-01", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-01\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.4，一致预期 1.34，surprise 4.36%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.99964, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-01", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-01", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-02T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019324000080/aapl-20240801.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-02", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "f2cfa189c2259b5a80345d711670bbbc76694ff9b99442d1b8e443ae4b6cb0fa", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240730-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240730-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2024-07-30", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.95，一致预期 2.94，surprise 0.23%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-07-30\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.95，一致预期 2.94，surprise 0.23%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.963772, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-07-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-07-31T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017024087835/msft-20240730.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-07-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "8938a91ca6b21077355317a98576a53140250e2ab258e02fd4eb598ad61b9a45", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240814-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-14", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240814-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2024-08-14", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.01，一致预期 5.13，surprise 17.15%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-14", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-14\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.01，一致预期 5.13，surprise 17.15%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.694139, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-15T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0814/2024081400282.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-15", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "95c8baabd436f973d3b848a847f6f83a3485236805a0880b4304095bb43c370f", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240731-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-31", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240731-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2024-07-31", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.36，一致预期 0.32，surprise 11.91%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-31", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-07-31\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.36，一致预期 0.32，surprise 11.91%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.094244, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-31", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-07-31", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-01T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0731/2024073100181.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "38cdc1c48dcb96e8bb5968177708c3d5bab32c620c7aefa275eecd284179c67d", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240815-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-15", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240815-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2024-08-15", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.05，一致预期 4.37，surprise -53.11%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-15", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-15\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.05，一致预期 4.37，surprise -53.11%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.298844, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-15", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-15", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-16T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0815/2024081501079.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-16", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4710e6c38f2873b9b2758769c70bbcfa7e986df21d800658d0afe7e335c62673", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250429-600519", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250429-600519", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600519", "stock_name": "贵州茅台", "event_date": "2025-04-29", "event_description": "贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 21.37，一致预期 20.63，surprise 3.61%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-04-29\n\n事件：贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 21.37，一致预期 20.63，surprise 3.61%。\n\n股票：贵州茅台（600519）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.193548, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-04-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-04-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-04-30/1223413786.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-04-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "14cbd068919ad3184557260c6e3acb1a68cd767b103d2b97b42adff8fa63dc47", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250425-000858", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-25", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250425-000858", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000858", "stock_name": "五粮液", "event_date": "2025-04-25", "event_description": "五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.83，一致预期 3.86，surprise -0.74%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-25", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-04-25\n\n事件：五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.83，一致预期 3.86，surprise -0.74%。\n\n股票：五粮液（000858）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.386958, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-25", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-04-25", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-04-28T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-04-26/1223311527.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-04-28", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "76b7c61aeca4bf2fb83b505ba610f870b07347b902fa3bd432ddb4140ae41cee", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250429-600036", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250429-600036", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600036", "stock_name": "招商银行", "event_date": "2025-04-29", "event_description": "招商银行（600036）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.48，一致预期 1.52，surprise -2.63%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-04-29\n\n事件：招商银行（600036）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.48，一致预期 1.52，surprise -2.63%。\n\n股票：招商银行（600036）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -3.801644, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-04-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-04-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-04-30/1223412232.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-04-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "04c88010b42cab94abbba291504c872d96804f19ba6b43cedc83919b62e6c902", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250414-300750", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-14", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250414-300750", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "300750", "stock_name": "宁德时代", "event_date": "2025-04-14", "event_description": "宁德时代（300750）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.69，一致预期 2.55，surprise 5.65%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-14", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-04-14\n\n事件：宁德时代（300750）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.69，一致预期 2.55，surprise 5.65%。\n\n股票：宁德时代（300750）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.852676, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-04-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-04-15T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-04-15/1223094849.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-04-15", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "891b4880d8819c0d1625f5c8a8c0c293acac9c23c669edb6f2671cf156200d51", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250425-002594", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-25", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250425-002594", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "002594", "stock_name": "比亚迪", "event_date": "2025-04-25", "event_description": "比亚迪（002594）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.93，一致预期 0.5，surprise 86.90%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-25", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-04-25\n\n事件：比亚迪（002594）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.93，一致预期 0.5，surprise 86.90%。\n\n股票：比亚迪（002594）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.639344, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-25", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-04-25", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-04-28T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-04-26/1223309368.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-04-28", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "397ad8024d0a7daefa2c7181f3cc1bfe7c1a5d4002776585f10931b7b0200558", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250424-600276", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-24", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250424-600276", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600276", "stock_name": "恒瑞医药", "event_date": "2025-04-24", "event_description": "恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.3，一致预期 0.21，surprise 42.86%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-24", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-04-24\n\n事件：恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.3，一致预期 0.21，surprise 42.86%。\n\n股票：恒瑞医药（600276）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.605011, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-24", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-04-24", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-04-25T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-04-25/1223274888.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-04-25", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "3f9820c170d2a12f13f5b28ccef681d9dd12b31594242e959ca480aa62cd753c", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250429-601398", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250429-601398", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "601398", "stock_name": "工商银行", "event_date": "2025-04-29", "event_description": "工商银行（601398）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.23，一致预期 0.24，surprise -4.17%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-04-29\n\n事件：工商银行（601398）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.23，一致预期 0.24，surprise -4.17%。\n\n股票：工商银行（601398）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -3.840878, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-04-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-04-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-04-30/1223415487.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-04-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "85db5b8a5815bafc5e877733e48ff25a61b6f1ddabda5dbe90ab36bf80977ed6", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250429-000333", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20250429-000333", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000333", "stock_name": "美的集团", "event_date": "2025-04-29", "event_description": "美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.67，一致预期 1.35，surprise 23.93%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-04-29\n\n事件：美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.67，一致预期 1.35，surprise 23.93%。\n\n股票：美的集团（000333）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.532569, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-04-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-04-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2025-04-30/1223412432.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-04-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "f37fac618a77eadb371fb4927a8d3d66b138385058b4f5b457215b43b98e6a30", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250501-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-05-01", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250501-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2025-05-01", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.65，一致预期 1.62，surprise 1.69%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-05-01", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-05-01\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.65，一致预期 1.62，surprise 1.69%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -3.364703, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-05-01", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-05-01", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-05-02T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000055/aapl-20250501.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-05-02", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "fee6a87cdca999571e4dac77ea0c9fa0aad4349f77ca1e8156a4759e018bdacf", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250430-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250430-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2025-04-30", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.46，一致预期 3.22，surprise 7.40%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-04-30\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.46，一致预期 3.22，surprise 7.40%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 7.958579, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-04-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-05-01T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017025061032/msft-20250430.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-05-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "ec33a57dc75a858099f6d486aa1f9d304649cb726409326cfb51e07db1ed52d7", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250715-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-07-15", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250715-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2025-07-15", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.96，一致预期 4.48，surprise 10.62%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-07-15", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-07-15\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.96，一致预期 4.48，surprise 10.62%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.997577, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-07-15", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-07-15", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-07-16T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961725000518/jpm-20250715.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-07-16", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "d9a425e888c552f19eb4d867cd8732a5530fac452e0554939a704d7b94bfa6f6", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250514-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-05-14", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250514-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2025-05-14", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.58，一致预期 6.34，surprise 3.85%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-05-14", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-05-14\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS ��际 6.58，一致预期 6.34，surprise 3.85%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.766798, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-05-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-05-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-05-15T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0514/2025051400273.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-05-15", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "f5c0346975c40ff3574a8b91253e5042b337481b52b18d255d7fc77c1a45c424", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250429-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250429-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2025-04-29", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.39，一致预期 0.33，surprise 16.77%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-04-29\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.39，一致预期 0.33，surprise 16.77%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.574342, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-04-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-04-30T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0429/2025042900347.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-04-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "a324ac1c08d369a9e85ae91edab03330a5fa701ebdf0313abdc36b9d0894dff8", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250515-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-05-15", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250515-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2025-05-15", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.57，一致预期 1.53，surprise 2.49%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-05-15", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-05-15\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.57，一致预期 1.53，surprise 2.49%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -5.368092, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-05-15", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-05-15", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-05-16T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0515/2025051500869.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-05-16", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "95b00815c40646a5c65c00747a8c94ae8450c1f0cb07ab812f646aab2169c80f", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260325-600276", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-25", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260325-600276", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600276", "stock_name": "恒瑞医药", "event_date": "2026-03-25", "event_description": "恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.29，一致预期 0.35，surprise -16.06%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-25", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-03-25\n\n事件：恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.29，一致预期 0.35，surprise -16.06%。\n\n股票：恒瑞医药（600276）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -3.7472, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-25", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-03-25", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-03-26T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-03-26/1225032585.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-03-26", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "371e9b3789615782c6906c66197da4290a1089e9178a68b63b3065874b47fbe9", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260327-601398", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-27", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260327-601398", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "601398", "stock_name": "工商银行", "event_date": "2026-03-27", "event_description": "工商银行（601398）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.24，一致预期 0.28，surprise -14.29%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-27", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-03-27\n\n事件：工商银行（601398）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.24，一致预期 0.28，surprise -14.29%。\n\n股票：工商银行（601398）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.021563, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-27", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-03-27", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-03-28/1225047240.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-03-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "a8a5170a1861f804fad0e53c660988eb9356915e5f6e6de68731bc77d163b008", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260330-000333", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20260330-000333", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000333", "stock_name": "美的集团", "event_date": "2026-03-30", "event_description": "美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.6，一致预期 0.76，surprise -21.05%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-30", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-03-30\n\n事件：美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.6，一致预期 0.76，surprise -21.05%。\n\n股票：美的集团（000333）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.099491, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-03-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-03-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-03-31/1225065145.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-03-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "3b2106c2a52da64651c5abd75497a71feaede03ca084a0983d782b77c45015e9", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240502-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-05-02", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240502-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2024-05-02", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.53，一致预期 1.5，surprise 2.05%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-05-02", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-05-02\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.53，一致预期 1.5，surprise 2.05%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 8.316599, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2024-05-02", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-05-02", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-05-03T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019324000067/aapl-20240502.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-05-03", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "87bd6a78ff4f71b7a894b7594d86a61938fbec82f6fa592a7f8da03ae8ded4ff", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240425-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-04-25", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240425-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2024-04-25", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.94，一致预期 2.84，surprise 3.40%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-04-25", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-04-25\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.94，一致预期 2.84，surprise 3.40%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.669826, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2024-04-25", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-04-25", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-04-26T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017024048268/msft-20240425.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-04-26", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "9bc5285bb98ad232d1d2d1c9c898a8bd990a02a96320b0e50f4f518643926c2c", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240412-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-04-12", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240412-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2024-04-12", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.44，一致预期 4.13，surprise 7.40%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-04-12", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-04-12\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.44，一致预期 4.13，surprise 7.40%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -6.416617, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2024-04-12", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-04-12", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-04-15T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961724000318/jpm-20240412.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-04-15", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e99b639748a332be5b04c49fb6965280c8ce98f340bc795f1c8c4e08472f8870", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250130-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250130-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2025-01-30", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.4，一致预期 2.34，surprise 2.52%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-01-30\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.4，一致预期 2.34，surprise 2.52%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.403744, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-01-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-01-31T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000007/aapl-20250130.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-01-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "2478048741267850aa6faaf52ddd9148fa4c6c18165a7200b282edeb32eb44c2", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250129-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250129-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2025-01-29", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.23，一致预期 3.12，surprise 3.47%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-29", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-01-29\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.23，一致预期 3.12，surprise 3.47%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -7.202599, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-01-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-01-30T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017025010484/msft-20250129.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-01-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "45220ae511f4eeea03386c9a81d8e62dbf9365c298ec5711bfed5ada722caac3", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250115-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-15", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250115-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2025-01-15", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.81，一致预期 4.04，surprise 19.18%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-15", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-01-15\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.81，一致预期 4.04，surprise 19.18%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.747809, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-15", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-01-15", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-01-16T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961725000042/jpm-20250115.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-01-16", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4dacf598fa16dcf7382b9e5b40f6212da810c4b41ac6f2e16ee583ac662c9fd7", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240320-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-03-20", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240320-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2024-03-20", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.44，一致预期 4.42，surprise 0.58%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-03-20", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-03-20\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.44，一致预期 4.42，surprise 0.58%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.175443, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2024-03-20", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-03-20", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-03-21T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0320/2024032000508.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-03-21", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "46d83104252f17bb5b8aae8e52049d3b57c260bde54c0e8fb831ff9dfd8b6c3d", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240430-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-04-30", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240430-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2024-04-30", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.36，一致预期 0.33，surprise 7.37%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-04-30", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-04-30\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.36，一致预期 0.33，surprise 7.37%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 5.644541, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2024-04-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-04-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-05-02T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0430/2024043000593.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-05-02", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "b044610f9161000d73aceb00bb74d047099fc355fe239f21cd9b4e6ab7475af9", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240514-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-05-14", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240514-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2024-05-14", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.27，一致预期 1.34，surprise -5.28%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-05-14", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-05-14\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.27，一致预期 1.34，surprise -5.28%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.786821, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2024-05-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-05-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-05-16T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0514/2024051400813.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-05-16", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "7013af77b3f9c26e77b2cb51b57b8469547e5e17a5bcef26a3fb9c8f05eedf2f", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241113-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-13", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241113-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2024-11-13", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.34，一致预期 5.7，surprise 11.17%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-13", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-11-13\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.34，一致预期 5.7，surprise 11.17%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.099057, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-13", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-11-13", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-14T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1113/2024111300327.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-14", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "dd2ea542d5eb9d6ef117ab07998e4ce60e2f828521b337e8355b92381d20ff89", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250218-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-02-18", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250218-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2025-02-18", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.29，一致预期 0.21，surprise 38.76%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-02-18", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-02-18\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.29，一致预期 0.21，surprise 38.76%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.391815, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-02-18", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-02-18", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-02-19T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0219/2025021900167.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-02-19", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "a31098d19ca0c737f8ea0894016e8f87b48bd6c1accba13ad377033c53d39c28", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241115-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-15", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241115-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2024-11-15", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.88，一致预期 1.91，surprise -1.76%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-15", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-11-15\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.88，一致预期 1.91，surprise -1.76%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.876059, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-15", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-11-15", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-18T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1115/2024111501175.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-18", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "aa50acc7a5155a1766ace66cb79022e04bc98ee199215b77e1cb8006b5d139f9", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220728-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-28", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220728-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2022-07-28", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.2，一致预期 1.15，surprise 3.93%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-28", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-07-28\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.2，一致预期 1.15，surprise 3.93%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.648193, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-07-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-07-29T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019322000069/aapl-20220728.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-07-29", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "1b7ef497e570272b7be8defe1bd512e9fcb161ebb2fe3c7170b9f664b55c56e6", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220726-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-26", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220726-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2022-07-26", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.23，一致预期 2.29，surprise -2.69%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-26", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-07-26\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.23，一致预期 2.29，surprise -2.69%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.828769, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-26", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-07-26", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-07-27T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312522202034/d372382d8k.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-07-27", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "98c164b7ddde0415a7db293b197df602f1fb3d398b2f39debcc07e679c5363ac", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220714-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-14", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220714-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2022-07-14", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.76，一致预期 2.9，surprise -4.76%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-14", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-07-14\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.76，一致预期 2.9，surprise -4.76%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.929312, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-07-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-07-15T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961722000412/jpm-20220714.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-07-15", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "cfd0b67d2899db4a5ba883d25fc5f6a259cec7523e96e93907cbaef6376d0eb7", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230202-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-02-02", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230202-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2023-02-02", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.88，一致预期 1.95，surprise -3.78%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-02-02", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-02-02\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.88，一致预期 1.95，surprise -3.78%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 6.236683, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-02-02", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-02-02", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-02-03T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019323000005/aapl-20230202.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-02-03", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "c91ef44fb02fd3caad1dd42f6ed35717a30c19b3ae8172aef577afd3a1ed1cfa", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230124-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-24", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230124-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2023-01-24", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.32，一致预期 2.32，surprise 0.21%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-24", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-01-24\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.32，一致预期 2.32，surprise 0.21%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.812104, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-24", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-01-24", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-01-25T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312523014230/d406070d8k.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-01-25", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e62a926508cf677599e147792ff132cd00a2028a4d77d0da25a4e0d7bdfe5926", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230113-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-13", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230113-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2023-01-13", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.57，一致预期 3.1，surprise 15.04%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-13", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-01-13\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.57，一致预期 3.1，surprise 15.04%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.939134, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-13", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-01-13", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-01-17T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961723000077/jpm-20230113.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-01-17", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "899c419d2bbb45f71b26f5e8bc5875e21b848f7b29c903e6ea4e41b08c1ea2e3", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230504-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-05-04", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230504-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2023-05-04", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.52，一致预期 1.43，surprise 6.37%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-05-04", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-05-04\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.52，一致预期 1.43，surprise 6.37%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.654828, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-05-04", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-05-04", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-05-05T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019323000063/aapl-20230504.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-05-05", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "180bb83d1845e5643711a36bc8e868fb0ef79f0f000d58421aa0043d8bd3120a", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230425-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-04-25", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230425-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2023-04-25", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.45，一致预期 2.23，surprise 9.77%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-04-25", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-04-25\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.45，一致预期 2.23，surprise 9.77%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 4.826634, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-04-25", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-04-25", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-04-26T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312523115280/d321368d8k.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-04-26", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "b6bddafde2fe5b7fafb15aeb37f5ffbbca65fe5a24832bf1c0f575425839e709", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230414-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-04-14", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230414-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2023-04-14", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.1，一致预期 3.37，surprise 21.69%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-04-14", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-04-14\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.1，一致预期 3.37，surprise 21.69%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 8.40375, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-04-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-04-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-04-17T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961723000297/jpm-20230414.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-04-17", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "270339156639e859471410f3580cfc3b7c06e14e22d3924b1c7d9cd4bac8cfec", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230803-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-08-03", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230803-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2023-08-03", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.26，一致预期 1.19，surprise 5.66%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-08-03", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-08-03\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.26，一致预期 1.19，surprise 5.66%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -5.499012, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-08-03", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-08-03", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-08-04T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019323000075/aapl-20230803.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-08-04", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "ea804aac653b3cda5a68d805f2cb58a57d2810aae82c140c3d6ecf0f055b5074", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230725-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-07-25", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230725-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2023-07-25", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.69，一致预期 2.55，surprise 5.59%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-07-25", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-07-25\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.69，一致预期 2.55，surprise 5.59%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.126857, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-07-25", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-07-25", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-07-26T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017023034400/msft-20230725.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-07-26", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "a0133b77b05deeae699dde4046445e5f5b49ea416e02906b989ec4873404a610", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230714-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-07-14", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230714-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2023-07-14", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.75，一致预期 3.76，surprise 26.46%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-07-14", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-07-14\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.75，一致预期 3.76，surprise 26.46%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.029496, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-07-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-07-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-07-17T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961723000428/jpm-20230714.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-07-17", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "815178935bb64a1377858660a728de0885aa38b9eb1d799dfdaa0f713ddf3872", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20231102-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-11-02", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20231102-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2023-11-02", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.46，一致预期 1.39，surprise 4.93%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-11-02", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-11-02\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.46，一致预期 1.39，surprise 4.93%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.540491, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-11-02", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-11-02", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-11-03T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019323000106/aapl-20230930.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-11-03", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "5ce45dfdf64b898c127af9bfe07fb9b5b811330e28964b319f18720b3481d8ec", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20231024-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-24", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20231024-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2023-10-24", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.99，一致预期 2.65，surprise 12.85%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-24", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-24\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.99，一致预期 2.65，surprise 12.85%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.446498, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-24", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-24", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-25T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017023054848/msft-20231024.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-25", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "50d1b29b2fa2d9f59d7e216669a30cf4b908b06cda90e2615367b256c944cda5", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20231013-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-13", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20231013-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2023-10-13", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.33，一致预期 3.97，surprise 9.01%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-13", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-13\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.33，一致预期 3.97，surprise 9.01%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.399087, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-13", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-13", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-16T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961723000510/jpm-20231013.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-16", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e30140f6fb8daec5595036337417bcfeaf880c7f8d3eabd6633a3e14e5f0c670", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241031-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241031-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2024-10-31", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.97，一致预期 0.95，surprise 2.48%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-10-31\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.97，一致预期 0.95，surprise 2.48%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -3.124729, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-31", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-01T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019324000120/aapl-20241031.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "1f2347f1a4839430954a47ab839536732cd208bbfb877e043d6173eb10d81fe1", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241030-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241030-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2024-10-30", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.3，一致预期 3.11，surprise 6.13%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-10-30\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.3，一致预期 3.11，surprise 6.13%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -5.926613, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-31T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017024118955/msft-20241030.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "62ea948fc475b7f1aa6aea634c0067d75154a85eab13bfbab45c57cbd8dae02a", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241011-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-11", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241011-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2024-10-11", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.37，一致预期 3.99，surprise 9.63%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-11", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-10-11\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.37，一致预期 3.99，surprise 9.63%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 4.059387, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-11", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-11", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-14T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961724000558/jpm-20241011.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-14", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e3050965780333c7647b051908aeb60b91d730e32e3cdffeaac76d2095c60d98", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250411-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-11", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250411-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2025-04-11", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 5.07，一致预期 4.64，surprise 9.15%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-11", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-04-11\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 5.07，一致预期 4.64，surprise 9.15%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.350799, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-04-11", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-04-11", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-04-14T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961725000334/jpm-20250411.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-04-14", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "876a0a6b5755fec558d1942bbe4fefb31c672572f396a04327b63c150eac9b7d", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250731-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-07-31", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250731-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2025-07-31", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.57，一致预期 1.43，surprise 10.12%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-07-31", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-07-31\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.57，一致预期 1.43，surprise 10.12%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -3.190623, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-07-31", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-07-31", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-08-01T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000071/aapl-20250731.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-08-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4ae0a438151b7cd3235eb87bda1dddf5b0436cb5d5a2ec1063d1e2f306b0619d", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250730-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-07-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20250730-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2025-07-30", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.65，一致预期 3.38，surprise 8.09%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-07-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-07-30\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.65，一致预期 3.38，surprise 8.09%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 4.083343, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-07-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-07-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-07-31T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017025100226/msft-20250730.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-07-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "0eea0d9a9cbd566e598af3044d3bb488c64c0642aa31a8169b69e03b1db3fd94", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20251030-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20251030-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2025-10-30", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.85，一致预期 1.77，surprise 4.52%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-10-30\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.85，一致预期 1.77，surprise 4.52%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.248418, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-10-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-10-31T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000077/a8-kex991q4202509272025.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-10-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "b475c9059f68c937256cfc071caa345cb1747da3c20d248eb3b870c5c7970b70", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20251029-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20251029-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2025-10-29", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.13，一致预期 3.66，surprise 12.73%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-29", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-10-29\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.13，一致预期 3.66，surprise 12.73%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -3.008836, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-10-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-10-30T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312525256310/msft-20251028.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-10-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "3f2273b80a3d1739c706d79d59b5aca7a684d294eb19ced25b6ecf68bb14bd68", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20251014-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-14", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20251014-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2025-10-14", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 5.07，一致预期 4.87，surprise 4.01%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-14", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-10-14\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 5.07，一致预期 4.87，surprise 4.01%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该���票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.740332, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-10-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-10-15T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828025044887/jpm-20251014.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-10-15", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "213279c6994a344b0602b15af27d5ea08b492dbd0b354a5a98deb25acd8efc61", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20260430-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20260430-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2026-04-30", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.01，一致预期 1.94，surprise 3.46%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-04-30\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.01，一致预期 1.94，surprise 3.46%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.69027, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-04-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-05-01T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019326000011/aapl-20260430.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-05-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "489576f29c27e86fe0c7deaf82613e2ee6b57b74aeb6fbe1c4bf55ca28cd8ff3", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20260429-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20260429-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2026-04-29", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.27，一致预期 4.07，surprise 4.90%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-29", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-04-29\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.27，一致预期 4.07，surprise 4.90%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -5.001747, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-04-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-04-30T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526191457/msft-20260429.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-04-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4b69f1358a975d14b6b5c622f4f3da504052e069f12e9dcf40e5091c5dcc6426", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20260414-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-14", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20260414-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2026-04-14", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 5.94，一致预期 5.51，surprise 7.78%。", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-14", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2026-04-14\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 5.94，一致预期 5.51，surprise 7.78%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.470671, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2026-04-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2026-04-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2026-04-15T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828026025013/jpm-20260414.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2026-04-15", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "3efaaf8118833cc5ce66fa91f981b2755a82aa335b50e3d2a2489ba37a2ed152", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220518-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-18", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220518-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2022-05-18", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.62，一致预期 2.81，surprise -6.70%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-18", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-05-18\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.62，一致预期 2.81，surprise -6.70%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -7.22041, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-18", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-05-18", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-05-19T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0518/2022051800271.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-05-19", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4669ebb7378fd4f419f970aee621a64641684c687b3eeaf592dbc930a46c5526", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220801-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2022-08-01", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220801-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2022-08-01", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.33，一致预期 0.17，surprise 98.07%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-08-01", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-08-01\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.33，一致预期 0.17，surprise 98.07%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.238862, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-08-01", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-08-01", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-08-02T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0801/2022080100633.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-08-02", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "b51037fc7dbafac77b3ab891ce097fa0bc36d4a0c29f5dd5a0722f2b92144f49", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220526-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-26", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220526-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2022-05-26", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.99，一致预期 0.92，surprise 7.61%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-26", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-05-26\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.99，一致预期 0.92，surprise 7.61%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外���字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 10.503949, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-26", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-05-26", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-05-27T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0526/2022052601314.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-05-27", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "965178b2b7e94ba95830ac47dec36000115fa831842cdf5bbb489757f1fb0b75", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221116-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-16", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221116-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2022-11-16", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.31，一致预期 2.99，surprise 10.56%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-16", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-11-16\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.31，一致预期 2.99，surprise 10.56%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.388885, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-16", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-11-16", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-11-17T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/1116/2022111600375.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-11-17", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "6d6ec446fcd447354d650af13ee23296be3935d4725dced4bf77cceb29bc3f99", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230220-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-02-20", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230220-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2023-02-20", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.29，一致预期 0.2，surprise 49.97%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-02-20", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-02-20\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.29，一致预期 0.2，surprise 49.97%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.030933, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-02-20", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-02-20", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-02-21T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0221/2023022100131.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-02-21", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "879a8fdfbfdec987dbd2cebf02041a220ac9198f4b33ec97fb7e78075f702a9b", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221117-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-17", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221117-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2022-11-17", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.61，一致预期 1.34，surprise 20.11%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-17", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-11-17\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.61，一致预期 1.34，surprise 20.11%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.459383, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-17", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-11-17", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-11-18T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/1117/2022111700899.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-11-18", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "563bf68fd4b2c8ecac0f8110fc5260a81bd8e33f6c12c22df1e970966af9b1b6", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230322-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-03-22", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230322-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2023-03-22", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.04，一致预期 3.03，surprise 0.50%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-03-22", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-03-22\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.04，一致预期 3.03，surprise 0.50%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 9.313155, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-03-22", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-03-22", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-03-23T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0322/2023032200281.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-03-23", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "563a2d1c525fa6baffdaffb983dac3b7c1f88b7c0506e5192680f78d8144f194", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230502-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-05-02", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230502-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2023-05-02", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.37，一致预期 0.25，surprise 47.94%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-05-02", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-05-02\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.37，一致预期 0.25，surprise 47.94%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 4.808541, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-05-02", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-05-02", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-05-03T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0502/2023050200617.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-05-03", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "9e795a4c4306d710814dace50df525bd8939885aa54b4cff25490827f5203017", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230223-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-02-23", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230223-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2023-02-23", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.41，一致预期 6.06，surprise -60.26%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-02-23", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-02-23\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.41，一致预期 6.06，surprise -60.26%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -3.119951, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-02-23", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-02-23", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-02-24T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0223/2023022300853.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-02-24", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "ab840d622dbe1a2b977036288719ece487dd35ee2cb529e382a749b2ea8522c4", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230517-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-05-17", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230517-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2023-05-17", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.35，一致预期 3.25，surprise 3.05%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-05-17", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-05-17\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.35，一致预期 3.25，surprise 3.05%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.450116, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-05-17", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-05-17", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-05-18T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0517/2023051700239.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-05-18", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "6fc99c39b6486899eb2b4336bae106e972a22806419c84ce767ad6e1e6397dc8", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230801-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-08-01", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230801-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2023-08-01", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.25，一致预期 0.31，surprise -18.49%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-08-01", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-08-01\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.25，一致预期 0.31，surprise -18.49%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.533742, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-08-01", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-08-01", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-08-02T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0801/2023080100647.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-08-02", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "d5d0c3b89fb32f7f0e90dcfbd7c6c5963b9e3c85a3102040be352838fac88c60", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230810-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-08-10", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230810-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2023-08-10", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.17，一致预期 1.97，surprise 10.15%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-08-10", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-08-10\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.17，一致预期 1.97，surprise 10.15%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.275244, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-08-10", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-08-10", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-08-11T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0810/2023081000990.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-08-11", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4f1f2ffbe60ead3f4f93d0f813829e845dee0d95bca86e0867d7b32141a05ee7", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230816-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-08-16", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20230816-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2023-08-16", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.88，一致预期 3.75，surprise 3.46%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-08-16", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-08-16\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.88，一致预期 3.75，surprise 3.46%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.060127, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-08-16", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-08-16", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-08-17T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0816/2023081600440.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-08-17", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "090088fedfec10d062d4be2404cc21a6a4081c8de3e1c1c5bcb8692e11b7a0e2", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20231030-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-30", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20231030-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2023-10-30", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.27，一致预期 0.3，surprise -10.89%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-30", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-30\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.27，一致预期 0.3，surprise -10.89%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -3.273035, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-31T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/1030/2023103000243.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-31", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "bb8b37326938bad3f1522847b612e7bc5613c9e857de98bd94e5272c672b5f33", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20231116-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2023-11-16", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20231116-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2023-11-16", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.95，一致预期 1.86，surprise 4.62%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-11-16", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-11-16\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.95，一致预期 1.86，surprise 4.62%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -11.959131, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-11-16", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-11-16", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-11-17T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/1116/2023111600954.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-11-17", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "ace122844fb9e638a3b1e7b7ab251e163d1e552f4b274fbd4a02039407167db0", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240514-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-05-14", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240514-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2024-05-14", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 5.26，一致预期 4.45，surprise 18.33%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-05-14", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-05-14\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 5.26，一致预期 4.45，surprise 18.33%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 4.970912, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2024-05-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-05-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-05-16T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0514/2024051400293.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-05-16", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "757ef3067f59539c0e7009bbcfee6f531edb689e8ae858dd0b304a5333549cc3", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241029-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241029-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2024-10-29", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.35，一致预期 0.29，surprise 19.58%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-29", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-10-29\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.35，一致预期 0.29，surprise 19.58%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 4.055025, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-30T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1029/2024102900157.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "608671706b06e15f015bd1b678e48fe2ab4bc6b3f1b886b592b93b9b3b1ad270", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250319-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-03-19", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250319-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2025-03-19", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 5.91，一致预期 5.6，surprise 5.57%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-03-19", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-03-19\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 5.91，一致预期 5.6，surprise 5.57%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -3.974122, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-03-19", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-03-19", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-03-20T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0319/2025031900336.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-03-20", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "71145adccb567e16f3c89ad7b74b1004bd8c869dd0f48f9329daeb08b1405afb", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250220-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-02-20", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250220-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2025-02-20", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.67，一致预期 2.46，surprise 8.39%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-02-20", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-02-20\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.67，一致预期 2.46，surprise 8.39%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 11.603547, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-02-20", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-02-20", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-02-21T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0220/2025022000639.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-02-21", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "670a7d600890274803fe255ede3a13b19fdb7c2f58adbf6332213f3a14425cc1", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250813-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-08-13", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250813-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2025-08-13", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.79，一致预期 6.49，surprise 4.62%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-08-13", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-08-13\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.79，一致预期 6.49，surprise 4.62%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 5.451296, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-08-13", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-08-13", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-08-14T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0813/2025081300261.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-08-14", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "7a2f8a18094092038cb2ce78f3d84f074bd8c1ce70a54830d5c51fedf517370b", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250730-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-07-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250730-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2025-07-30", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.39，一致预期 0.33，surprise 16.77%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-07-30", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-07-30\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.39，一致预期 0.33，surprise 16.77%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -4.613096, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-07-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-07-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-07-31T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0730/2025073000183.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-07-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e6e5fe0838cec6a4875da611520b991ce32867a7ff2edf2cffa665bc67c8a865", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20251113-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-11-13", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20251113-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2025-11-13", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 7.58，一致预期 7.03，surprise 7.71%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-11-13", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-11-13\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 7.58，一致预期 7.03，surprise 7.71%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.435312, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-11-13", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-11-13", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-11-14T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1113/2025111300286.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-11-14", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "c2c8e3fe4d7ff289f60c6e18d1c6d891b3f8abfcbdcfa074f2a43963a862df48", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20251028-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-28", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20251028-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2025-10-28", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.36，一致预期 0.34，surprise 5.26%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-28", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-10-28\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.36，一致预期 0.34，surprise 5.26%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 5.882353, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-10-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-10-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-10-30T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1028/2025102800265.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-10-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "5920441fb0d76a57cabe700043f9d68d5fc1aa7b6d2728b5c48b2b2d041de60a", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250829-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-08-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20250829-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2025-08-29", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.84，一致预期 1.88，surprise -1.88%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-08-29", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-08-29\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.84，一致预期 1.88，surprise -1.88%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 18.393784, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-08-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-08-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-09-01T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0829/2025082901540.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-09-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "bd8e21c71374a783268b38fb0667f3972658ad1ca33c4cf91355d2e50aa09f8a", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20251125-9988", "category": "EVT", "variant": "earnings", "cutoff_date": "2025-11-25", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20251125-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2025-11-25", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.55，一致预期 0.73，surprise -25.09%。", "cutoff_date": "2025-11-25", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-11-25\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.55，一致预期 0.73，surprise -25.09%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.194177, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-11-25", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-11-25", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-11-26T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1125/2025112501051.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-11-26", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "01d77e1845921356e1b25446373f5c34a951b9e1894cd102d2ce3a3338530f98", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-MACRO-US-20240911-CPI-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "macro", "cutoff_date": "2024-09-11", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-MACRO-US-20240911-CPI-JPM", "event_subtype": "macro", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2024-09-11", "event_description": "美国劳工统计局公布2024年8月CPI：季调环比上涨0.2%，未季调同比上涨2.5%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-09-11", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112024.htm", "event_source": "us_bls", "macro_indicator": "US_CPI", "release_timestamp": "2024-09-11T08:30:00-04:00", "release_timezone": "America/New_York", "release_phase": "pre_market", "reaction_trading_day": "2024-09-11", "baseline_trading_day": "2024-09-10"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-09-11\n\n事件：美国劳工统计局公布2024年8月CPI：季调环比上涨0.2%，未季调同比上涨2.5%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.812414, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "official_macro_v1", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112024.htm", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112024.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-09-10->2024-09-11", "outcome_available_at": "2024-09-11", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-09-11", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-09-11", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-09-11T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112024.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-09-11", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": null, "quality_flags": ["manual_review_incomplete"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-MACRO-US-20241101-NFP-JPM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "macro", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-01", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-MACRO-US-20241101-NFP-JPM", "event_subtype": "macro", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2024-11-01", "event_description": "美国劳工统计局公布2024年10月就业形势：非农就业增加1.2万人，失业率为4.1%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-01", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_11012024.htm", "event_source": "us_bls", "macro_indicator": "US_EMPLOYMENT", "release_timestamp": "2024-11-01T08:30:00-04:00", "release_timezone": "America/New_York", "release_phase": "pre_market", "reaction_trading_day": "2024-11-01", "baseline_trading_day": "2024-10-31"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-11-01\n\n事件：美国劳工统计局公布2024年10月就业形势：非农就业增加1.2万人，失业率为4.1%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.459627, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "official_macro_v1", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_11012024.htm", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_11012024.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-31->2024-11-01", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-01", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-01", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-11-01", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-01T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_11012024.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": null, "quality_flags": ["manual_review_incomplete"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-MACRO-CN_A-20241109-CPI-601318", "category": "EVT", "variant": "macro", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-09", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-MACRO-CN_A-20241109-CPI-601318", "event_subtype": "macro", "stock_code": "601318", "stock_name": "中国平安", "event_date": "2024-11-09", "event_description": "国家统计局公布2024年10月CPI：同比上涨0.3%，环比下降0.3%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-09", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "event_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202411/t20241109_1957353.html", "event_source": "cn_nbs", "macro_indicator": "CN_CPI", "release_timestamp": "2024-11-09T09:30:00+08:00", "release_timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "release_phase": "non_trading_day", "reaction_trading_day": "2024-11-11", "baseline_trading_day": "2024-11-08"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-11-09\n\n事件：国家统计局公布2024年10月CPI：同比上涨0.3%，环比下降0.3%。\n\n股票：中国平安（601318）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.217857, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "official_macro_v1", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "event_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202411/t20241109_1957353.html", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202411/t20241109_1957353.html", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-08->2024-11-11", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-11", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-09", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-11-09", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-11T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202411/t20241109_1957353.html", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-11", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "5651892c8a316a6257c1aec8ddd93ca19ea440ab176d6bf2c5c4a07ddedb54c2", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-MACRO-CN_A-20241130-PMI-300750", "category": "EVT", "variant": "macro", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-MACRO-CN_A-20241130-PMI-300750", "event_subtype": "macro", "stock_code": "300750", "stock_name": "宁德时代", "event_date": "2024-11-30", "event_description": "国家统计局公布2024年11月制造业PMI为50.3%，比上月上升0.2个百分点。", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-30", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "event_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202411/t20241130_1957624.html", "event_source": "cn_nbs", "macro_indicator": "CN_MANUFACTURING_PMI", "release_timestamp": "2024-11-30T09:30:00+08:00", "release_timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "release_phase": "non_trading_day", "reaction_trading_day": "2024-12-02", "baseline_trading_day": "2024-11-29"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-11-30\n\n事件：国家统计局公布2024年11月制造业PMI为50.3%，比上月上升0.2个百分点。\n\n股票：宁德时代（300750）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.363655, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "official_macro_v1", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "event_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202411/t20241130_1957624.html", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202411/t20241130_1957624.html", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-29->2024-12-02", "outcome_available_at": "2024-12-02", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-11-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-12-02T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202411/t20241130_1957624.html", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-12-02", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "5d6e292f6eb21c27cb9c2a3369e6c25f8efc06c5ededda70b75ca68284702c5a", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-MACRO-CN_A-20241018-GDP-601398", "category": "EVT", "variant": "macro", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-18", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-MACRO-CN_A-20241018-GDP-601398", "event_subtype": "macro", "stock_code": "601398", "stock_name": "工商银行", "event_date": "2024-10-18", "event_description": "国家统计局公布2024年前三季度GDP同比增长4.8%，其中第三季度同比增长4.6%、环比增长0.9%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-18", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "event_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/zwfwck/sjfb/202410/t20241018_1957044.html", "event_source": "cn_nbs", "macro_indicator": "CN_GDP", "release_timestamp": "2024-10-18T10:00:00+08:00", "release_timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "release_phase": "market_hours", "reaction_trading_day": "2024-10-18", "baseline_trading_day": "2024-10-17"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-10-18\n\n事件：国家统计局公布2024年前三季度GDP同比增长4.8%，其中第三季度同比增长4.6%、环比增长0.9%。\n\n股票：工商银行（601398）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.476948, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "official_macro_v1", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "event_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/zwfwck/sjfb/202410/t20241018_1957044.html", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/zwfwck/sjfb/202410/t20241018_1957044.html", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-17->2024-10-18", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-18", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-18", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-18", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-18T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/zwfwck/sjfb/202410/t20241018_1957044.html", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-18", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "1cf14554d91416312cb692d9290192cd780f38102c7644566710ed4eda7fda20", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-MACRO-HK-20241121-CPI-0005", "category": "EVT", "variant": "macro", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-21", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-MACRO-HK-20241121-CPI-0005", "event_subtype": "macro", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2024-11-21", "event_description": "香港政府统计处公布2024年10月综合消费物价指数同比上涨1.4%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-21", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202411/21/P2024112100285.htm", "event_source": "hk_csd", "macro_indicator": "HK_CPI", "release_timestamp": "2024-11-21T16:30:00+08:00", "release_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "release_phase": "after_market", "reaction_trading_day": "2024-11-22", "baseline_trading_day": "2024-11-20"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-11-21\n\n事件：香港政府统计处公布2024年10月综合消费物价指数同比上涨1.4%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.419291, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "official_macro_v1", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202411/21/P2024112100285.htm", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202411/21/P2024112100285.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-20->2024-11-22", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-22", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-21", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-11-21", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-22T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202411/21/P2024112100285.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-22", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "0962b03f6a6a529578d91756ef410e27d80dcda1dc8854753dbb7e0e0ee9bc4a", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-MACRO-HK-20241031-GDP-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "macro", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-MACRO-HK-20241031-GDP-0700", "event_subtype": "macro", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2024-10-31", "event_description": "香港政府统计处公布2024年第三季GDP初步估计：实质同比增长1.8%，前三季合计增长2.6%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202410/31/P2024103100273.htm", "event_source": "hk_csd", "macro_indicator": "HK_GDP", "release_timestamp": "2024-10-31T16:30:00+08:00", "release_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "release_phase": "after_market", "reaction_trading_day": "2024-11-01", "baseline_trading_day": "2024-10-30"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-10-31\n\n事件：香港政府统计处公布2024年第三季GDP初步估计：实质同比增长1.8%，前三季合计增长2.6%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发���后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.995137, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "official_macro_v1", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202410/31/P2024103100273.htm", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202410/31/P2024103100273.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-30->2024-11-01", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-01", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-31", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-01T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202410/31/P2024103100273.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "cdf2202cf59a79b438cf54461b9e256b27716e86118ca1e628c96b138a35a2a8", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-MACRO-US-20250115-CPI-AAPL", "category": "EVT", "variant": "macro", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-15", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-MACRO-US-20250115-CPI-AAPL", "event_subtype": "macro", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2025-01-15", "event_description": "美国劳工统计局公布2024年12月CPI，市场关注通胀与利率路径变化。", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-15", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01152025.htm", "event_source": "us_bls", "macro_indicator": "US_CPI", "release_timestamp": "2025-01-15T08:30:00-05:00", "release_timezone": "America/New_York", "release_phase": "pre_market", "reaction_trading_day": "2025-01-15", "baseline_trading_day": "2025-01-14"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-01-15\n\n事件：美国劳工统计局公布2024年12月CPI，市场关注通胀与利率路径变化。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.967591, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "official_macro_v1", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01152025.htm", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01152025.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-01-14->2025-01-15", "outcome_available_at": "2025-01-15", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-15", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-01-15", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-01-15T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01152025.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-01-15", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": null, "quality_flags": ["manual_review_incomplete"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-MACRO-US-20250207-NFP-MSFT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "macro", "cutoff_date": "2025-02-07", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-MACRO-US-20250207-NFP-MSFT", "event_subtype": "macro", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2025-02-07", "event_description": "美国劳工统计局公布2025年1月就业形势，非农就业与失业率数据影响风险偏好。", "cutoff_date": "2025-02-07", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02072025.htm", "event_source": "us_bls", "macro_indicator": "US_EMPLOYMENT", "release_timestamp": "2025-02-07T08:30:00-05:00", "release_timezone": "America/New_York", "release_phase": "pre_market", "reaction_trading_day": "2025-02-07", "baseline_trading_day": "2025-02-06"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-02-07\n\n事件：美国劳工统计局公布2025年1月就业形势，非农就业与失业率数据影响风险偏好。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.459768, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "official_macro_v1", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02072025.htm", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02072025.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-02-06->2025-02-07", "outcome_available_at": "2025-02-07", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-02-07", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-02-07", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-02-07T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02072025.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-02-07", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": null, "quality_flags": ["manual_review_incomplete"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-MACRO-CN_A-20250109-CPI-600519", "category": "EVT", "variant": "macro", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-09", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-MACRO-CN_A-20250109-CPI-600519", "event_subtype": "macro", "stock_code": "600519", "stock_name": "贵州茅台", "event_date": "2025-01-09", "event_description": "国家统计局公布2024年12月CPI，反映内需与价格修复节奏。", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-09", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "event_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202501/t20250109_1957901.html", "event_source": "cn_nbs", "macro_indicator": "CN_CPI", "release_timestamp": "2025-01-09T09:30:00+08:00", "release_timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "release_phase": "market_hours", "reaction_trading_day": "2025-01-09", "baseline_trading_day": "2025-01-08"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-01-09\n\n事件：国家统计局公布2024年12月CPI，反映内需与价格修复节奏。\n\n股票：贵州茅台（600519）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.103986, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "official_macro_v1", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "event_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202501/t20250109_1957901.html", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202501/t20250109_1957901.html", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-01-08->2025-01-09", "outcome_available_at": "2025-01-09", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-09", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-01-09", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-01-09T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/xxgk/sjfb/zxfb2020/202501/t20250109_1958170.html", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-01-09", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "1163874084ad9227f5bfe2e3b2810b2129c676ccf23f3c64383f01d900d6c993", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-MACRO-CN_A-20250127-PMI-601318", "category": "EVT", "variant": "macro", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-27", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-MACRO-CN_A-20250127-PMI-601318", "event_subtype": "macro", "stock_code": "601318", "stock_name": "中国平安", "event_date": "2025-01-27", "event_description": "国家统计局公布2025年1月制造业PMI，数据用于观察景气扩张强度。", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-27", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "event_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202501/t20250127_1957966.html", "event_source": "cn_nbs", "macro_indicator": "CN_MANUFACTURING_PMI", "release_timestamp": "2025-01-27T09:30:00+08:00", "release_timezone": "Asia/Shanghai", "release_phase": "market_hours", "reaction_trading_day": "2025-01-27", "baseline_trading_day": "2025-01-24"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-01-27\n\n事件：国家统计局公布2025年1月制造业PMI，数据用于观察景气扩张强度。\n\n股票：中国平安（601318）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.019668, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "official_macro_v1", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "event_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202501/t20250127_1957966.html", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202501/t20250127_1957966.html", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-01-24->2025-01-27", "outcome_available_at": "2025-01-27", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-27", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-01-27", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-01-27T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/xxgk/sjfb/zxfb2020/202501/t20250127_1958493.html", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-01-27", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "83a3c34522d4fd1951455b38e9242f43f84137992acfa8c67bd1a6b3f6b0f36e", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-MACRO-HK-20250123-CPI-1299", "category": "EVT", "variant": "macro", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-23", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-MACRO-HK-20250123-CPI-1299", "event_subtype": "macro", "stock_code": "1299", "stock_name": "友邦保险", "event_date": "2025-01-23", "event_description": "香港政府统计处公布2024年12月综合消费物价指数。", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-23", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202501/23/P2025012300281.htm", "event_source": "hk_csd", "macro_indicator": "HK_CPI", "release_timestamp": "2025-01-23T16:30:00+08:00", "release_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "release_phase": "after_market", "reaction_trading_day": "2025-01-24", "baseline_trading_day": "2025-01-22"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-01-23\n\n事件：香港政府统计处公布2024年12月综合消费物价指数。\n\n股票：友��保险（1299）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.274227, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "official_macro_v1", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202501/23/P2025012300281.htm", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202501/23/P2025012300281.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-01-22->2025-01-24", "outcome_available_at": "2025-01-24", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-23", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-01-23", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-01-24T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202501/21/P2025012100279.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-01-24", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "c7e0cbb81f0921141dd43abd78027936272173c20945f2040c6f2153848b4508", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-MACRO-HK-20250131-GDP-0700", "category": "EVT", "variant": "macro", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-31", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-MACRO-HK-20250131-GDP-0700", "event_subtype": "macro", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2025-01-31", "event_description": "香港政府统计处公布最新季度GDP初步估计。", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-31", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202501/31/P2025013100268.htm", "event_source": "hk_csd", "macro_indicator": "HK_GDP", "release_timestamp": "2025-01-31T16:30:00+08:00", "release_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "release_phase": "after_market", "reaction_trading_day": "2025-02-03", "baseline_trading_day": "2025-01-28"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2025-01-31\n\n事件：香港政府统计处公布最新季度GDP初步估计。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.547267, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "official_macro_v1", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202501/31/P2025013100268.htm", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202501/31/P2025013100268.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-01-28->2025-02-03", "outcome_available_at": "2025-02-03", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2025-01-31", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}}, "forecast_origin": "2025-01-31", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2025-02-03T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202502/03/P2025020300248.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2025-02-03", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "reviewed", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "68c1e1e352402cdd33be828a934dd235fc9ba910b3f55a1babf9485e5587b33c", "quality_flags": [], "official_temporal_eligible": true, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231019-300750-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-19", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231019-300750", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "300750", "stock_name": "宁德时代", "event_date": "2023-10-19", "event_description": "宁德时代（300750）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.14，一致预期 2.64，surprise -18.77%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-19", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：宁德时代（300750）\n- 信息截止日期：2023-10-19\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 宁德时代（300750）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.14，一致预期 2.64，surprise -18.77%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.844875, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-19", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231019-300750", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-19", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-20T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-20/1218095874.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-20", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "520ce74d77f5267ea92c75a627e20deef901aab1431d359e9f93f43c28289370", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231019-300750-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-19", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231019-300750", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "300750", "stock_name": "宁德时代", "event_date": "2023-10-19", "event_description": "宁德时代（300750）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.14，一致预期 2.64，surprise -18.77%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-19", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2023-10-19\n\n事件描述：宁德时代（300750）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.14，一致预期 2.64，surprise -18.77%。\n\n标的：宁德时代（300750）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.844875, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-19", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231019-300750", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-19", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-20T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-20/1218095874.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-20", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "520ce74d77f5267ea92c75a627e20deef901aab1431d359e9f93f43c28289370", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231019-300750-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-19", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231019-300750", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "300750", "stock_name": "宁德时代", "event_date": "2023-10-19", "event_description": "宁德时代（300750）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.161，一致预期 2.666，surprise -18.77%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-19", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-19\n\n事件：宁德时代（300750）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.161，一致预期 2.666，surprise -18.77%。\n\n股票：宁德时代（300750）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.844875, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-19", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231019-300750", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "2.14", "to": "2.161"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "2.64", "to": "2.666"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-19", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-20T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-20/1218095874.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-20", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "520ce74d77f5267ea92c75a627e20deef901aab1431d359e9f93f43c28289370", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220518-0700-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-18", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220518-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2022-05-18", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.62，一致预期 2.81，surprise -6.70%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-18", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n- 信息截止日期：2022-05-18\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.62，一致预期 2.81，surprise -6.70%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -7.22041, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-18", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220518-0700", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-05-18", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-05-19T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0518/2022051800271.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-05-19", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4669ebb7378fd4f419f970aee621a64641684c687b3eeaf592dbc930a46c5526", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220518-0700-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-18", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220518-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2022-05-18", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.62，一致预期 2.81，surprise -6.70%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-18", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2022-05-18\n\n事件描述：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.62，一致预期 2.81，surprise -6.70%。\n\n标的：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -7.22041, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-18", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220518-0700", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-05-18", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-05-19T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0518/2022051800271.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-05-19", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4669ebb7378fd4f419f970aee621a64641684c687b3eeaf592dbc930a46c5526", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220518-0700-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-18", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220518-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2022-05-18", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.594，一致预期 2.782，surprise -6.70%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-18", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-05-18\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.594，一致预期 2.782，surprise -6.70%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，��要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -7.22041, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-18", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220518-0700", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "2.62", "to": "2.594"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "2.81", "to": "2.782"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-05-18", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-05-19T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0518/2022051800271.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-05-19", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4669ebb7378fd4f419f970aee621a64641684c687b3eeaf592dbc930a46c5526", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220714-JPM-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-14", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220714-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2022-07-14", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.76，一致预期 2.9，surprise -4.76%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-14", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n- 信息截止日期：2022-07-14\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.76，一致预期 2.9，surprise -4.76%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.929312, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220714-JPM", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-07-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-07-15T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961722000412/jpm-20220714.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-07-15", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "cfd0b67d2899db4a5ba883d25fc5f6a259cec7523e96e93907cbaef6376d0eb7", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220714-JPM-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-14", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220714-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2022-07-14", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.76，一致预期 2.9，surprise -4.76%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-14", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2022-07-14\n\n事件描述：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.76，一致预期 2.9，surprise -4.76%。\n\n标的：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.929312, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220714-JPM", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-07-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-07-15T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961722000412/jpm-20220714.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-07-15", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "cfd0b67d2899db4a5ba883d25fc5f6a259cec7523e96e93907cbaef6376d0eb7", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220714-JPM-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-14", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220714-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2022-07-14", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.7876，一致预期 2.9290，surprise -4.76%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-14", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-07-14\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.7876，一致预期 2.9290，surprise -4.76%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.929312, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220714-JPM", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "2.76", "to": "2.7876"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "2.9", "to": "2.9290"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-07-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-07-15T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961722000412/jpm-20220714.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-07-15", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "cfd0b67d2899db4a5ba883d25fc5f6a259cec7523e96e93907cbaef6376d0eb7", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240808-600519-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-08", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240808-600519", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600519", "stock_name": "贵州茅台", "event_date": "2024-08-08", "event_description": "贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 14.02，一致预期 14.22，surprise -1.41%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-08", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：贵州茅台（600519）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-08-08\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 14.02，一致预期 14.22，surprise -1.41%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.504772, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-08", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240808-600519", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-08", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-09T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-09/1220825189.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-09", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "73f3518fa60f51e8cfe0fdae841b93a745e52ae770d2f33458d711f2f6b19726", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240808-600519-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-08", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240808-600519", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600519", "stock_name": "贵州茅台", "event_date": "2024-08-08", "event_description": "贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 14.02，一致预期 14.22，surprise -1.41%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-08", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-08-08\n\n事件描述：贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 14.02，一致预期 14.22，surprise -1.41%。\n\n标的：贵州茅台（600519）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.504772, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-08", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240808-600519", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-08", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-09T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-09/1220825189.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-09", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "73f3518fa60f51e8cfe0fdae841b93a745e52ae770d2f33458d711f2f6b19726", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240808-600519-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-08", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240808-600519", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600519", "stock_name": "贵州茅台", "event_date": "2024-08-08", "event_description": "贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 13.880，一致预期 14.078，surprise -1.41%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-08", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-08\n\n事件：贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 13.880，一致预期 14.078，surprise -1.41%。\n\n股票：贵州茅台（600519）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.504772, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-08", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240808-600519", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "14.02", "to": "13.880"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "14.22", "to": "14.078"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-08", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-09T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-09/1220825189.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-09", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "73f3518fa60f51e8cfe0fdae841b93a745e52ae770d2f33458d711f2f6b19726", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240731-0005-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-31", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240731-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2024-07-31", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.36，一致预期 0.32，surprise 11.91%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-31", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-07-31\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.36，一致预期 0.32，surprise 11.91%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.094244, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-31", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240731-0005", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-07-31", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-01T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0731/2024073100181.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "38cdc1c48dcb96e8bb5968177708c3d5bab32c620c7aefa275eecd284179c67d", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240731-0005-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-31", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240731-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2024-07-31", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.36，一致预期 0.32，surprise 11.91%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-31", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-07-31\n\n事件描述：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.36，一致预期 0.32，surprise 11.91%。\n\n标的：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.094244, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-31", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240731-0005", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-07-31", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-01T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0731/2024073100181.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "38cdc1c48dcb96e8bb5968177708c3d5bab32c620c7aefa275eecd284179c67d", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240731-0005-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-31", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240731-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2024-07-31", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.3636，一致预期 0.3232，surprise 11.91%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-31", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-07-31\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.3636，一致预期 0.3232，surprise 11.91%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.094244, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-31", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240731-0005", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "0.36", "to": "0.3636"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "0.32", "to": "0.3232"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-07-31", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-01T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0731/2024073100181.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "38cdc1c48dcb96e8bb5968177708c3d5bab32c620c7aefa275eecd284179c67d", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240730-MSFT-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240730-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2024-07-30", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.95，一致预期 2.94，surprise 0.23%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-07-30\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.95，一致预期 2.94，surprise 0.23%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.963772, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240730-MSFT", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-07-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-07-31T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017024087835/msft-20240730.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-07-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "8938a91ca6b21077355317a98576a53140250e2ab258e02fd4eb598ad61b9a45", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240730-MSFT-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240730-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2024-07-30", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.95，一致预期 2.94，surprise 0.23%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-07-30\n\n事件描述：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.95，一致预期 2.94，surprise 0.23%。\n\n标的：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.963772, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240730-MSFT", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-07-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-07-31T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017024087835/msft-20240730.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-07-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "8938a91ca6b21077355317a98576a53140250e2ab258e02fd4eb598ad61b9a45", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240730-MSFT-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240730-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2024-07-30", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.92，一致预期 2.91，surprise 0.23%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-07-30\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.92，一致预期 2.91，surprise 0.23%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -1.963772, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-07-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240730-MSFT", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "2.95", "to": "2.92"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "2.94", "to": "2.91"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-07-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-07-31T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017024087835/msft-20240730.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-07-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "8938a91ca6b21077355317a98576a53140250e2ab258e02fd4eb598ad61b9a45", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231020-600519-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-20", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231020-600519", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600519", "stock_name": "贵州茅台", "event_date": "2023-10-20", "event_description": "贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 13.42，一致预期 13.67，surprise -1.83%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-20", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：贵州茅台（600519）\n- 信息截止日期：2023-10-20\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 13.42，一致预期 13.67，surprise -1.83%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.857667, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-20", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231020-600519", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-20", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-23T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-21/1218110141.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-23", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "13d07be03387148a596d0d8928a0d80c83913b5f560e9fac2c0e3e79bc9343fc", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231020-600519-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-20", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231020-600519", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600519", "stock_name": "贵州茅台", "event_date": "2023-10-20", "event_description": "贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 13.42，一致预期 13.67，surprise -1.83%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-20", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2023-10-20\n\n事件描述：贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 13.42，一致预期 13.67，surprise -1.83%。\n\n标的：贵州茅台（600519）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.857667, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-20", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231020-600519", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-20", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-23T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-21/1218110141.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-23", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "13d07be03387148a596d0d8928a0d80c83913b5f560e9fac2c0e3e79bc9343fc", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231020-600519-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-20", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231020-600519", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600519", "stock_name": "贵州茅台", "event_date": "2023-10-20", "event_description": "贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 13.554，一致预期 13.807，surprise -1.83%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-20", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-20\n\n事件：贵州茅台（600519）发布财报，EPS 实际 13.554，一致预期 13.807，surprise -1.83%。\n\n股票：贵州茅台（600519）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.857667, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-20", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231020-600519", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "13.42", "to": "13.554"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "13.67", "to": "13.807"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-20", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-23T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-21/1218110141.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-23", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "13d07be03387148a596d0d8928a0d80c83913b5f560e9fac2c0e3e79bc9343fc", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220526-9988-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-26", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220526-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2022-05-26", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.99，一致预期 0.92，surprise 7.61%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-26", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n- 信息截止日期：2022-05-26\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.99，一致预期 0.92，surprise 7.61%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 10.503949, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-26", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220526-9988", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-05-26", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-05-27T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0526/2022052601314.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-05-27", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "965178b2b7e94ba95830ac47dec36000115fa831842cdf5bbb489757f1fb0b75", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220526-9988-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-26", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220526-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2022-05-26", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.99，一致预期 0.92，surprise 7.61%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-26", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2022-05-26\n\n事件描述：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.99，一致预期 0.92，surprise 7.61%。\n\n标的：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 10.503949, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-26", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220526-9988", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-05-26", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-05-27T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0526/2022052601314.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-05-27", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "965178b2b7e94ba95830ac47dec36000115fa831842cdf5bbb489757f1fb0b75", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220526-9988-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-26", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220526-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2022-05-26", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.9801，一致预期 0.9108，surprise 7.61%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-26", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-05-26\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.9801，一致预期 0.9108，surprise 7.61%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 10.503949, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-05-26", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220526-9988", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "0.99", "to": "0.9801"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "0.92", "to": "0.9108"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-05-26", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-05-27T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0526/2022052601314.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-05-27", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "965178b2b7e94ba95830ac47dec36000115fa831842cdf5bbb489757f1fb0b75", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220726-MSFT-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-26", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220726-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2022-07-26", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.23，一致预期 2.29，surprise -2.69%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-26", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n- 信息截止日期：2022-07-26\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.23，一致预期 2.29，surprise -2.69%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.828769, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-26", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220726-MSFT", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-07-26", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-07-27T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312522202034/d372382d8k.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-07-27", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "98c164b7ddde0415a7db293b197df602f1fb3d398b2f39debcc07e679c5363ac", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220726-MSFT-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-26", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220726-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2022-07-26", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.23，一致预期 2.29，surprise -2.69%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-26", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2022-07-26\n\n事件描述：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.23，一致预期 2.29，surprise -2.69%。\n\n标的：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.828769, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-26", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220726-MSFT", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-07-26", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-07-27T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312522202034/d372382d8k.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-07-27", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "98c164b7ddde0415a7db293b197df602f1fb3d398b2f39debcc07e679c5363ac", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220726-MSFT-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-26", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220726-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2022-07-26", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.2523，一致预期 2.3129，surprise -2.69%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-26", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-07-26\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.2523，一致预期 2.3129，surprise -2.69%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.828769, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-26", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220726-MSFT", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "2.23", "to": "2.2523"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "2.29", "to": "2.3129"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-07-26", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-07-27T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312522202034/d372382d8k.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-07-27", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "98c164b7ddde0415a7db293b197df602f1fb3d398b2f39debcc07e679c5363ac", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240819-000333-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-19", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240819-000333", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000333", "stock_name": "美的集团", "event_date": "2024-08-19", "event_description": "美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.59，一致预期 1.54，surprise 3.53%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-19", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：美的集团（000333）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-08-19\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.59，一致预期 1.54，surprise 3.53%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.073207, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-19", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240819-000333", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-19", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-20T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-20/1220909926.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-20", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "dce78130339b6181cb134240d3b6ad7e06ba54c23af38829ba09733abafbbda0", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240819-000333-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-19", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240819-000333", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000333", "stock_name": "美的集团", "event_date": "2024-08-19", "event_description": "美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.59，一致预期 1.54，surprise 3.53%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-19", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-08-19\n\n事件描述：美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.59，一致预期 1.54，surprise 3.53%。\n\n标的：美的集团（000333）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.073207, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-19", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240819-000333", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-19", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-20T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-20/1220909926.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-20", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "dce78130339b6181cb134240d3b6ad7e06ba54c23af38829ba09733abafbbda0", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240819-000333-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-19", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240819-000333", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000333", "stock_name": "美的集团", "event_date": "2024-08-19", "event_description": "美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.5741，一致预期 1.5246，surprise 3.53%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-19", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-19\n\n事件：美的集团（000333）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.5741，一致预期 1.5246，surprise 3.53%。\n\n股票：美的集团（000333）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.073207, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-19", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240819-000333", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "1.59", "to": "1.5741"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "1.54", "to": "1.5246"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-19", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-20T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-20/1220909926.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-20", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "dce78130339b6181cb134240d3b6ad7e06ba54c23af38829ba09733abafbbda0", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240814-0700-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-14", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240814-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2024-08-14", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.01，一致预期 5.13，surprise 17.15%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-14", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-08-14\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.01，一致预期 5.13，surprise 17.15%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.694139, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240814-0700", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-15T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0814/2024081400282.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-15", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "95c8baabd436f973d3b848a847f6f83a3485236805a0880b4304095bb43c370f", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240814-0700-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-14", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240814-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2024-08-14", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.01，一致预期 5.13，surprise 17.15%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-14", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-08-14\n\n事件描述：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.01，一致预期 5.13，surprise 17.15%。\n\n标的：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.694139, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240814-0700", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-15T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0814/2024081400282.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-15", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "95c8baabd436f973d3b848a847f6f83a3485236805a0880b4304095bb43c370f", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240814-0700-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-14", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240814-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2024-08-14", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.0701，一致预期 5.1813，surprise 17.15%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-14", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-14\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.0701，一致预期 5.1813，surprise 17.15%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -2.694139, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-14", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240814-0700", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "6.01", "to": "6.0701"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "5.13", "to": "5.1813"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-14", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-15T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0814/2024081400282.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-15", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "95c8baabd436f973d3b848a847f6f83a3485236805a0880b4304095bb43c370f", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240801-AAPL-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-01", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240801-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2024-08-01", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.4，一致预期 1.34，surprise 4.36%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-01", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：Apple（AAPL）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-08-01\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.4，一致预期 1.34，surprise 4.36%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.99964, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-01", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240801-AAPL", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-01", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-02T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019324000080/aapl-20240801.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-02", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "f2cfa189c2259b5a80345d711670bbbc76694ff9b99442d1b8e443ae4b6cb0fa", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240801-AAPL-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-01", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240801-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2024-08-01", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.4，一致预期 1.34，surprise 4.36%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-01", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-08-01\n\n事件描述：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.4，一致预期 1.34，surprise 4.36%。\n\n标的：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.99964, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-01", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240801-AAPL", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-01", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-02T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019324000080/aapl-20240801.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-02", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "f2cfa189c2259b5a80345d711670bbbc76694ff9b99442d1b8e443ae4b6cb0fa", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240801-AAPL-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-01", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240801-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2024-08-01", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.3860，一致预期 1.3266，surprise 4.36%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-01", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-01\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.3860，一致预期 1.3266，surprise 4.36%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.99964, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-01", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20240801-AAPL", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "1.4", "to": "1.3860"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "1.34", "to": "1.3266"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-01", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-02T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019324000080/aapl-20240801.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-02", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "f2cfa189c2259b5a80345d711670bbbc76694ff9b99442d1b8e443ae4b6cb0fa", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231025-600276-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-25", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231025-600276", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600276", "stock_name": "恒瑞医药", "event_date": "2023-10-25", "event_description": "恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.19，一致预期 0.21，surprise -7.32%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-25", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：恒瑞医药（600276）\n- 信息截止日期：2023-10-25\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.19，一致预期 0.21，surprise -7.32%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.822117, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-25", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231025-600276", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-25", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-26T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-26/1218148216.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-26", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "6ca0cf8badd43b67cd0eb7193f99437386713f6b8a57ab1b106ce3182349b415", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231025-600276-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-25", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231025-600276", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600276", "stock_name": "恒瑞医药", "event_date": "2023-10-25", "event_description": "恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.19，一致预期 0.21，surprise -7.32%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-25", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2023-10-25\n\n事件描述：恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.19，一致预期 0.21，surprise -7.32%。\n\n标的：恒瑞医药（600276）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.822117, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-25", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231025-600276", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-25", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-26T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-26/1218148216.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-26", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "6ca0cf8badd43b67cd0eb7193f99437386713f6b8a57ab1b106ce3182349b415", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231025-600276-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-25", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231025-600276", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600276", "stock_name": "恒瑞医药", "event_date": "2023-10-25", "event_description": "恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.1919，一致预期 0.2121，surprise -7.32%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-25", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-25\n\n事件：恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.1919，一致预期 0.2121，surprise -7.32%。\n\n股票：恒瑞医药（600276）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.822117, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-25", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231025-600276", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "0.19", "to": "0.1919"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "0.21", "to": "0.2121"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-25", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-26T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-26/1218148216.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-26", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "6ca0cf8badd43b67cd0eb7193f99437386713f6b8a57ab1b106ce3182349b415", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220801-0005-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2022-08-01", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220801-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2022-08-01", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.33，一致预期 0.17，surprise 98.07%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-08-01", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n- 信息截止日期：2022-08-01\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.33，一致预期 0.17，surprise 98.07%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.238862, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-08-01", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220801-0005", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-08-01", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-08-02T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0801/2022080100633.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-08-02", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "b51037fc7dbafac77b3ab891ce097fa0bc36d4a0c29f5dd5a0722f2b92144f49", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220801-0005-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2022-08-01", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220801-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2022-08-01", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.33，一致预期 0.17，surprise 98.07%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-08-01", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2022-08-01\n\n事件描述：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.33，一致预期 0.17，surprise 98.07%。\n\n标的：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.238862, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-08-01", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220801-0005", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-08-01", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-08-02T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0801/2022080100633.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-08-02", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "b51037fc7dbafac77b3ab891ce097fa0bc36d4a0c29f5dd5a0722f2b92144f49", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220801-0005-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2022-08-01", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220801-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2022-08-01", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.3267，一致预期 0.1683，surprise 98.07%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-08-01", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-08-01\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.3267，一致预期 0.1683，surprise 98.07%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.238862, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-08-01", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20220801-0005", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "0.33", "to": "0.3267"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "0.17", "to": "0.1683"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-08-01", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-08-02T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0801/2022080100633.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-08-02", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "b51037fc7dbafac77b3ab891ce097fa0bc36d4a0c29f5dd5a0722f2b92144f49", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220728-AAPL-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-28", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220728-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2022-07-28", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.2，一致预期 1.15，surprise 3.93%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-28", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：Apple（AAPL）\n- 信息截止日期：2022-07-28\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.2，一致预期 1.15，surprise 3.93%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.648193, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220728-AAPL", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-07-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-07-29T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019322000069/aapl-20220728.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-07-29", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "1b7ef497e570272b7be8defe1bd512e9fcb161ebb2fe3c7170b9f664b55c56e6", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220728-AAPL-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-28", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220728-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2022-07-28", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.2，一致预期 1.15，surprise 3.93%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-28", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2022-07-28\n\n事件描述：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.2，一致预期 1.15，surprise 3.93%。\n\n标的：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.648193, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220728-AAPL", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-07-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-07-29T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019322000069/aapl-20220728.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-07-29", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "1b7ef497e570272b7be8defe1bd512e9fcb161ebb2fe3c7170b9f664b55c56e6", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220728-AAPL-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-28", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220728-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2022-07-28", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.2120，一致预期 1.1615，surprise 3.93%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-28", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-07-28\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.2120，一致预期 1.1615，surprise 3.93%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.648193, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-07-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20220728-AAPL", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "1.2", "to": "1.2120"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "1.15", "to": "1.1615"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-07-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-07-29T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019322000069/aapl-20220728.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-07-29", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "1b7ef497e570272b7be8defe1bd512e9fcb161ebb2fe3c7170b9f664b55c56e6", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240821-600276-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-21", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240821-600276", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600276", "stock_name": "恒瑞医药", "event_date": "2024-08-21", "event_description": "恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.32，一致预期 0.19，surprise 68.42%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-21", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：恒瑞医药（600276）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-08-21\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.32，一致预期 0.19，surprise 68.42%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.976331, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-21", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240821-600276", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-21", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-22T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-22/1220938296.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-22", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "296602a0af6c5880883b05785b2fbcb3d61f4e954832872f341810039db41909", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240821-600276-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-21", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240821-600276", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600276", "stock_name": "恒瑞医药", "event_date": "2024-08-21", "event_description": "恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.32，一致预期 0.19，surprise 68.42%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-21", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-08-21\n\n事件描述：恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.32，一致预期 0.19，surprise 68.42%。\n\n标的：恒瑞医药（600276）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.976331, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-21", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240821-600276", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-21", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-22T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-22/1220938296.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-22", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "296602a0af6c5880883b05785b2fbcb3d61f4e954832872f341810039db41909", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240821-600276-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-21", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240821-600276", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "600276", "stock_name": "恒瑞医药", "event_date": "2024-08-21", "event_description": "恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.3168，一致预期 0.1881，surprise 68.42%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-21", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-21\n\n事件：恒瑞医药（600276）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.3168，一致预期 0.1881，surprise 68.42%。\n\n股票：恒瑞医药（600276）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.976331, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-21", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240821-600276", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "0.32", "to": "0.3168"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "0.19", "to": "0.1881"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-21", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-22T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-22/1220938296.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-22", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "296602a0af6c5880883b05785b2fbcb3d61f4e954832872f341810039db41909", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240815-9988-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-15", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240815-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2024-08-15", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.05，一致预期 4.37，surprise -53.11%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-15", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-08-15\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.05，一致预期 4.37，surprise -53.11%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.298844, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-15", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240815-9988", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-15", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-16T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0815/2024081501079.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-16", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4710e6c38f2873b9b2758769c70bbcfa7e986df21d800658d0afe7e335c62673", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240815-9988-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-15", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240815-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2024-08-15", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.05，一致预期 4.37，surprise -53.11%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-15", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-08-15\n\n事件描述：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.05，一致预期 4.37，surprise -53.11%。\n\n标的：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.298844, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-15", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240815-9988", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-15", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-16T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0815/2024081501079.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-16", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4710e6c38f2873b9b2758769c70bbcfa7e986df21d800658d0afe7e335c62673", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240815-9988-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-15", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240815-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2024-08-15", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.0705，一致预期 4.4137，surprise -53.11%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-15", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-15\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.0705，一致预期 4.4137，surprise -53.11%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 2.298844, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-15", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20240815-9988", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "2.05", "to": "2.0705"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "4.37", "to": "4.4137"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-15", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-16T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0815/2024081501079.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-16", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "4710e6c38f2873b9b2758769c70bbcfa7e986df21d800658d0afe7e335c62673", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241011-JPM-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-11", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241011-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2024-10-11", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.37，一致预期 3.99，surprise 9.63%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-11", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-10-11\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.37，一致预期 3.99，surprise 9.63%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 4.059387, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-11", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241011-JPM", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-11", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-14T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961724000558/jpm-20241011.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-14", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e3050965780333c7647b051908aeb60b91d730e32e3cdffeaac76d2095c60d98", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241011-JPM-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-11", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241011-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2024-10-11", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.37，一致预期 3.99，surprise 9.63%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-11", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-10-11\n\n事件描述：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.37，一致预期 3.99，surprise 9.63%。\n\n标的：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 4.059387, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-11", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241011-JPM", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-11", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-14T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961724000558/jpm-20241011.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-14", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e3050965780333c7647b051908aeb60b91d730e32e3cdffeaac76d2095c60d98", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241011-JPM-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-11", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241011-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2024-10-11", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.326，一致预期 3.950，surprise 9.63%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-11", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-10-11\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 4.326，一致预期 3.950，surprise 9.63%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 4.059387, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-11", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241011-JPM", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "4.37", "to": "4.326"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "3.99", "to": "3.950"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-11", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-14T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961724000558/jpm-20241011.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-14", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e3050965780333c7647b051908aeb60b91d730e32e3cdffeaac76d2095c60d98", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231027-000858-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-27", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231027-000858", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000858", "stock_name": "五粮液", "event_date": "2023-10-27", "event_description": "五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.5，一致预期 1.41，surprise 6.38%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-27", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：五粮液（000858）\n- 信息截止日期：2023-10-27\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.5，一致预期 1.41，surprise 6.38%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.674282, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-27", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231027-000858", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-27", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-28/1218182838.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-30", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e40a79935d3909700d8032a66697cef3e0ac7e5bcd51f4fe4bf1fad2b232bf9c", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231027-000858-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-27", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231027-000858", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000858", "stock_name": "五粮液", "event_date": "2023-10-27", "event_description": "五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.5，一致预期 1.41，surprise 6.38%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-27", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2023-10-27\n\n事件描述：五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.5，一致预期 1.41，surprise 6.38%。\n\n标的：五粮液（000858）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.674282, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-27", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231027-000858", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-27", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-28/1218182838.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-30", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e40a79935d3909700d8032a66697cef3e0ac7e5bcd51f4fe4bf1fad2b232bf9c", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231027-000858-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-27", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231027-000858", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000858", "stock_name": "五粮液", "event_date": "2023-10-27", "event_description": "五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.5150，一致预期 1.4241，surprise 6.38%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-27", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-27\n\n事件：五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.5150，一致预期 1.4241，surprise 6.38%。\n\n股票：五粮液（000858）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.674282, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-27", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231027-000858", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "1.5", "to": "1.5150"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "1.41", "to": "1.4241"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-27", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-28/1218182838.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-30", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e40a79935d3909700d8032a66697cef3e0ac7e5bcd51f4fe4bf1fad2b232bf9c", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221116-0700-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-16", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221116-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2022-11-16", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.31，一致预期 2.99，surprise 10.56%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-16", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n- 信息截止日期：2022-11-16\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.31，一致预期 2.99，surprise 10.56%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.388885, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-16", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221116-0700", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-11-16", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-11-17T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/1116/2022111600375.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-11-17", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "6d6ec446fcd447354d650af13ee23296be3935d4725dced4bf77cceb29bc3f99", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221116-0700-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-16", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221116-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2022-11-16", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.31，一致预期 2.99，surprise 10.56%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-16", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2022-11-16\n\n事件描述：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.31，一致预期 2.99，surprise 10.56%。\n\n标的：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.388885, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-16", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221116-0700", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-11-16", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-11-17T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/1116/2022111600375.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-11-17", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "6d6ec446fcd447354d650af13ee23296be3935d4725dced4bf77cceb29bc3f99", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221116-0700-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-16", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221116-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2022-11-16", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.2769，一致预期 2.9601，surprise 10.56%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-16", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-11-16\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.2769，一致预期 2.9601，surprise 10.56%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.388885, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-16", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221116-0700", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "3.31", "to": "3.2769"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "2.99", "to": "2.9601"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-11-16", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-11-17T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/1116/2022111600375.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-11-17", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "6d6ec446fcd447354d650af13ee23296be3935d4725dced4bf77cceb29bc3f99", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230113-JPM-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-13", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230113-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2023-01-13", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.57，一致预期 3.1，surprise 15.04%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-13", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n- 信息截止日期：2023-01-13\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.57，一致预期 3.1，surprise 15.04%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.939134, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-13", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230113-JPM", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-01-13", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-01-17T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961723000077/jpm-20230113.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-01-17", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "899c419d2bbb45f71b26f5e8bc5875e21b848f7b29c903e6ea4e41b08c1ea2e3", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230113-JPM-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-13", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230113-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2023-01-13", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.57，一致预期 3.1，surprise 15.04%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-13", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2023-01-13\n\n事件描述：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.57，一致预期 3.1，surprise 15.04%。\n\n标的：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.939134, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-13", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230113-JPM", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-01-13", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-01-17T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961723000077/jpm-20230113.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-01-17", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "899c419d2bbb45f71b26f5e8bc5875e21b848f7b29c903e6ea4e41b08c1ea2e3", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230113-JPM-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-13", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230113-JPM", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "JPM", "stock_name": "JPMorgan", "event_date": "2023-01-13", "event_description": "JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.6057，一致预期 3.1310，surprise 15.04%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-13", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-01-13\n\n事件：JPMorgan（JPM）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.6057，一致预期 3.1310，surprise 15.04%。\n\n股票：JPMorgan（JPM）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.939134, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-13", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230113-JPM", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "3.57", "to": "3.6057"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "3.1", "to": "3.1310"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-01-13", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-01-17T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000001961723000077/jpm-20230113.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-01-17", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "899c419d2bbb45f71b26f5e8bc5875e21b848f7b29c903e6ea4e41b08c1ea2e3", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240822-601318-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-22", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240822-601318", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "601318", "stock_name": "中国平安", "event_date": "2024-08-22", "event_description": "中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.18，一致预期 1.61，surprise 35.40%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-22", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：中国平安（601318）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-08-22\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.18，一致预期 1.61，surprise 35.40%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.288056, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-22", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240822-601318", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-22", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-23T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-23/1220953911.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-23", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "42e9917e288fd1ec0167ff85696abc1f965fc2c78c21df7c462f14edcb78c434", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240822-601318-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-22", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240822-601318", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "601318", "stock_name": "中国平安", "event_date": "2024-08-22", "event_description": "中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.18，一致预期 1.61，surprise 35.40%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-22", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-08-22\n\n事件描述：中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.18，一致预期 1.61，surprise 35.40%。\n\n标的：中国平安（601318）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.288056, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-22", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240822-601318", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-22", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-23T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-23/1220953911.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-23", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "42e9917e288fd1ec0167ff85696abc1f965fc2c78c21df7c462f14edcb78c434", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240822-601318-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-22", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240822-601318", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "601318", "stock_name": "中国平安", "event_date": "2024-08-22", "event_description": "中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.1582，一致预期 1.5939，surprise 35.40%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-22", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-22\n\n事件：中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.1582，一致预期 1.5939，surprise 35.40%。\n\n股票：中国平安（601318）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 3.288056, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-22", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240822-601318", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "2.18", "to": "2.1582"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "1.61", "to": "1.5939"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-22", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-23T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-23/1220953911.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-23", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "42e9917e288fd1ec0167ff85696abc1f965fc2c78c21df7c462f14edcb78c434", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241029-0005-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241029-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2024-10-29", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.35，一致预期 0.29，surprise 19.58%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-29", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-10-29\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.35，一致预期 0.29，surprise 19.58%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 4.055025, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241029-0005", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-30T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1029/2024102900157.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "608671706b06e15f015bd1b678e48fe2ab4bc6b3f1b886b592b93b9b3b1ad270", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241029-0005-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241029-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2024-10-29", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.35，一致预期 0.29，surprise 19.58%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-29", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-10-29\n\n事件描���：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.35，一致预期 0.29，surprise 19.58%。\n\n标的：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 4.055025, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241029-0005", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-30T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1029/2024102900157.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "608671706b06e15f015bd1b678e48fe2ab4bc6b3f1b886b592b93b9b3b1ad270", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241029-0005-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-29", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241029-0005", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0005", "stock_name": "汇丰控股", "event_date": "2024-10-29", "event_description": "汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.3535，一致预期 0.2929，surprise 19.58%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-29", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-10-29\n\n事件：汇丰控股（0005）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.3535，一致预期 0.2929，surprise 19.58%。\n\n股票：汇丰控股（0005）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 4.055025, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-29", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241029-0005", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "0.35", "to": "0.3535"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "0.29", "to": "0.2929"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-29", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-30T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1029/2024102900157.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-30", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "608671706b06e15f015bd1b678e48fe2ab4bc6b3f1b886b592b93b9b3b1ad270", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241030-MSFT-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241030-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2024-10-30", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.3，一致预期 3.11，surprise 6.13%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-10-30\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.3，一致预期 3.11，surprise 6.13%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -5.926613, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241030-MSFT", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-31T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017024118955/msft-20241030.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "62ea948fc475b7f1aa6aea634c0067d75154a85eab13bfbab45c57cbd8dae02a", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241030-MSFT-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241030-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2024-10-30", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.3，一致预期 3.11，surprise 6.13%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-10-30\n\n事件描述：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.3，一致预期 3.11，surprise 6.13%。\n\n标的：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -5.926613, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241030-MSFT", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-31T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017024118955/msft-20241030.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "62ea948fc475b7f1aa6aea634c0067d75154a85eab13bfbab45c57cbd8dae02a", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241030-MSFT-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-30", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241030-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2024-10-30", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.267，一致预期 3.079，surprise 6.13%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-30", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-10-30\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 3.267，一致预期 3.079，surprise 6.13%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -5.926613, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-30", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241030-MSFT", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "3.3", "to": "3.267"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "3.11", "to": "3.079"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-30", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-10-31T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017024118955/msft-20241030.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-10-31", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "62ea948fc475b7f1aa6aea634c0067d75154a85eab13bfbab45c57cbd8dae02a", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231028-601318-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231028-601318", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "601318", "stock_name": "中国平安", "event_date": "2023-10-28", "event_description": "中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.88，一致预期 1.38，surprise -36.23%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：中国平安（601318）\n- 信息截止日期：2023-10-28\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.88，一致预期 1.38，surprise -36.23%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.28774, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231028-601318", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-28/1218186509.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-30", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "d15a947d4da14313c01bd7b7cca70709d57dc15a40d6187f0a34b1f1a57830db", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231028-601318-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231028-601318", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "601318", "stock_name": "中国平安", "event_date": "2023-10-28", "event_description": "中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.88，一致预期 1.38，surprise -36.23%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2023-10-28\n\n事件描述：中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.88，一致预期 1.38，surprise -36.23%。\n\n标的：中国平安（601318）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.28774, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231028-601318", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-28/1218186509.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-30", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "d15a947d4da14313c01bd7b7cca70709d57dc15a40d6187f0a34b1f1a57830db", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231028-601318-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231028-601318", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "601318", "stock_name": "中国平安", "event_date": "2023-10-28", "event_description": "中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.889，一致预期 1.394，surprise -36.23%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-10-28\n\n事件：中国平安（601318）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.889，一致预期 1.394，surprise -36.23%。\n\n股票：中国平安（601318）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.28774, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-10-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20231028-601318", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "0.88", "to": "0.889"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "1.38", "to": "1.394"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-10-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-10-30T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-10-28/1218186509.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-10-30", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "d15a947d4da14313c01bd7b7cca70709d57dc15a40d6187f0a34b1f1a57830db", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221117-9988-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-17", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221117-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2022-11-17", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.61，一致预期 1.34，surprise 20.11%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-17", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n- 信息截止日期：2022-11-17\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.61，一致预期 1.34，surprise 20.11%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.459383, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-17", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221117-9988", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-11-17", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-11-18T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/1117/2022111700899.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-11-18", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "563bf68fd4b2c8ecac0f8110fc5260a81bd8e33f6c12c22df1e970966af9b1b6", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221117-9988-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-17", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221117-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2022-11-17", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.61，一致预期 1.34，surprise 20.11%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-17", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2022-11-17\n\n事件描述：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.61，一致预期 1.34，surprise 20.11%。\n\n标的：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.459383, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-17", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221117-9988", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-11-17", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-11-18T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/1117/2022111700899.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-11-18", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "563bf68fd4b2c8ecac0f8110fc5260a81bd8e33f6c12c22df1e970966af9b1b6", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221117-9988-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-17", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221117-9988", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "9988", "stock_name": "阿里巴巴", "event_date": "2022-11-17", "event_description": "阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.5939，一致预期 1.3266，surprise 20.11%。", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-17", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2022-11-17\n\n事件：阿里巴巴（9988）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.5939，一致预期 1.3266，surprise 20.11%。\n\n股票：阿里巴巴（9988）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 1.459383, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2022-11-17", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20221117-9988", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "1.61", "to": "1.5939"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "1.34", "to": "1.3266"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2022-11-17", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2022-11-18T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/1117/2022111700899.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2022-11-18", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "563bf68fd4b2c8ecac0f8110fc5260a81bd8e33f6c12c22df1e970966af9b1b6", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230124-MSFT-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-24", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230124-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2023-01-24", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.32，一致预期 2.32，surprise 0.21%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-24", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n- 信息截止日期：2023-01-24\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.32，一致预期 2.32，surprise 0.21%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.812104, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-24", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230124-MSFT", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-01-24", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-01-25T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312523014230/d406070d8k.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-01-25", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e62a926508cf677599e147792ff132cd00a2028a4d77d0da25a4e0d7bdfe5926", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230124-MSFT-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-24", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230124-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2023-01-24", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.32，一致预期 2.32，surprise 0.21%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-24", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2023-01-24\n\n事件描述：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.32，一致预期 2.32，surprise 0.21%。\n\n标的：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.812104, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-24", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230124-MSFT", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-01-24", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-01-25T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312523014230/d406070d8k.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-01-25", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e62a926508cf677599e147792ff132cd00a2028a4d77d0da25a4e0d7bdfe5926", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230124-MSFT-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-24", "time_band": "T1", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230124-MSFT", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "MSFT", "stock_name": "Microsoft", "event_date": "2023-01-24", "event_description": "Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.34，一致预期 2.34，surprise 0.21%。", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-24", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2023-01-24\n\n事件：Microsoft（MSFT）发布财报，EPS 实际 2.34，一致预期 2.34，surprise 0.21%。\n\n股票：Microsoft（MSFT）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.812104, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T1", "cutoff_date": "2023-01-24", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20230124-MSFT", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "2.32", "to": "2.34"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "2.32", "to": "2.34"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2023-01-24", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2023-01-25T21:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312523014230/d406070d8k.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2023-01-25", "paper_band": "T1", "paper_band_reason": "outcome_available_at<=2024-05-31", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "e62a926508cf677599e147792ff132cd00a2028a4d77d0da25a4e0d7bdfe5926", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240828-000858-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240828-000858", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000858", "stock_name": "五粮液", "event_date": "2024-08-28", "event_description": "五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.29，一致预期 1.29，surprise 0.30%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：五粮液（000858）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-08-28\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.29，一致预期 1.29，surprise 0.30%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.917589, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240828-000858", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-29T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-29/1221032897.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-29", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "a4ff46e63f220f2961f5b63d0638cf94d5da639fac790eeba9a57935f856e707", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240828-000858-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240828-000858", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000858", "stock_name": "五粮液", "event_date": "2024-08-28", "event_description": "五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.29，一致预期 1.29，surprise 0.30%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-08-28\n\n事件描述：五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.29，一致预期 1.29，surprise 0.30%。\n\n标的：五粮液（000858）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.917589, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240828-000858", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-29T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-29/1221032897.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-29", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "a4ff46e63f220f2961f5b63d0638cf94d5da639fac790eeba9a57935f856e707", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240828-000858-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240828-000858", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "000858", "stock_name": "五粮液", "event_date": "2024-08-28", "event_description": "五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.28，一致预期 1.28，surprise 0.30%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-08-28\n\n事件：五粮液（000858）发布财报，EPS 实际 1.28，一致预期 1.28，surprise 0.30%。\n\n股票：五粮液（000858）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "up", "actual_return_pct": 0.917589, "actual_up": 1.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "CN_A", "currency": "CNY", "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-08-28", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-CN_A-20240828-000858", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "1.29", "to": "1.28"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "1.29", "to": "1.28"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-08-28", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-08-29T07:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2024-08-29/1221032897.PDF", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-08-29", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "a4ff46e63f220f2961f5b63d0638cf94d5da639fac790eeba9a57935f856e707", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241113-0700-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-13", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241113-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2024-11-13", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.34，一致预期 5.7，surprise 11.17%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-13", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-11-13\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- 腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.34，一致预期 5.7，surprise 11.17%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.099057, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-13", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241113-0700", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-11-13", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-14T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1113/2024111300327.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-14", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "dd2ea542d5eb9d6ef117ab07998e4ce60e2f828521b337e8355b92381d20ff89", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241113-0700-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-13", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241113-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2024-11-13", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.34，一致预期 5.7，surprise 11.17%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-13", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-11-13\n\n事件描述：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.34，一致预期 5.7，surprise 11.17%。\n\n标的：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.099057, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-13", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241113-0700", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-11-13", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-14T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1113/2024111300327.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-14", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "dd2ea542d5eb9d6ef117ab07998e4ce60e2f828521b337e8355b92381d20ff89", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241113-0700-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-13", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241113-0700", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "0700", "stock_name": "腾讯控股", "event_date": "2024-11-13", "event_description": "腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.4034，一致预期 5.7570，surprise 11.17%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-13", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-11-13\n\n事件：腾讯控股（0700）发布财报，EPS 实际 6.4034，一致预期 5.7570，surprise 11.17%。\n\n股票：腾讯控股（0700）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -0.099057, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "HK", "currency": "HKD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-11-13", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-HK-20241113-0700", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": 0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "6.34", "to": "6.4034"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "5.7", "to": "5.7570"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-11-13", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-14T08:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1113/2024111300327.pdf", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-14", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "dd2ea542d5eb9d6ef117ab07998e4ce60e2f828521b337e8355b92381d20ff89", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241031-AAPL-PERT-LAYOUT", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_layout", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241031-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2024-10-31", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.97，一致预期 0.95，surprise 2.48%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "## 一、标的与信息边界\n\n- 股票：Apple（AAPL）\n- 信息截止日期：2024-10-31\n\n## 二、事件\n\n- Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.97，一致预期 0.95，surprise 2.48%。\n\n## 三、任务\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n## 四、输出格式\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -3.124729, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_layout.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241031-AAPL", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "layout", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-31", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-01T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019324000120/aapl-20241031.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "1f2347f1a4839430954a47ab839536732cd208bbfb877e043d6173eb10d81fe1", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241031-AAPL-PERT-PARA", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_paraphrase", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241031-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2024-10-31", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.97，一致预期 0.95，surprise 2.48%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "已知信息截至：2024-10-31\n\n事件描述：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.97，一致预期 0.95，surprise 2.48%。\n\n标的：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请判断该股票在上述事件发生之后的短期价格变动方向。\n\n请仅返回如下 JSON 结构：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n只输出该 JSON 本身，不要附加说明文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -3.124729, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event_perturb_paraphrase.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241031-AAPL", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "paraphrase", "perturbation_family": "prompt_format", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": null, "numerals_preserved": true}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-31", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-01T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019324000120/aapl-20241031.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "1f2347f1a4839430954a47ab839536732cd208bbfb877e043d6173eb10d81fe1", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"} +{"task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241031-AAPL-PERT-NUM", "category": "EVT", "variant": "perturb_numeric", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "time_band": "T2", "status": "ready", "seed": {"event_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241031-AAPL", "event_subtype": "earnings", "stock_code": "AAPL", "stock_name": "Apple", "event_date": "2024-10-31", "event_description": "Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.9603，一致预期 0.9405，surprise 2.48%。", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "market": "US", "currency": "USD"}, "prompt": "信息截止日期：2024-10-31\n\n事件：Apple（AAPL）发布财报，EPS 实际 0.9603，一致预期 0.9405，surprise 2.48%。\n\n股票：Apple（AAPL）\n\n请预测该股票在事件发生后短期内的价格方向。\n\n以下面 JSON 格式输出：\n{\n \"direction\": \"up\" 或 \"down\",\n \"probability_up\": <0到1的浮点数>\n}\n\n请严格输出 JSON，不要输出任何额外文字、解释或 markdown 代码块。\n", "expected_output": {"direction": "up|down", "probability_up": "float"}, "ground_truth": {"actual_direction": "down", "actual_return_pct": -3.124729, "actual_up": 0.0}, "metadata": {"source": "yahoo", "is_template": false, "builder_version": "b_event_csv_builder_v2", "market": "US", "currency": "USD", "event_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_url": null, "outcome_evidence_code": null, "outcome_available_at": null, "temporal_split": {"time_band": "T2", "cutoff_date": "2024-10-31", "cutoff_date_source": "seed.cutoff_date", "is_synthetic_cutoff_date": false, "model_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "reference_current_date": "2026-08-17", "rule": "T1: cutoff_date <= model_training_cutoff; T2: model_training_cutoff < cutoff_date < reference_current_date; T3: cutoff_date >= reference_current_date"}, "prompt_template": "prompts/b_event.txt", "perturbation": {"base_task_id": "EVT-EARN-US-20241031-AAPL", "base_variant": "earnings", "perturbation_type": "numeric", "perturbation_family": "numeric", "generator": "scripts/generate_bc_perturbations.py", "numeric_scale": -0.01, "numeric_changes": [{"field": "eps_actual", "from": "0.97", "to": "0.9603"}, {"field": "eps_consensus", "from": "0.95", "to": "0.9405"}], "numerals_preserved": false}}, "forecast_origin": "2024-10-31", "forecast_origin_source": "seed.event_date", "outcome_available_at": "2024-11-01T20:00:00Z", "outcome_available_at_source": "observed_yahoo_release_adjusted_close", "outcome_evidence_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019324000120/aapl-20241031.htm", "outcome_evidence_code": "observed_close:2024-11-01", "paper_band": "T2", "paper_band_reason": "forecast_origin>=2024-07-30 and outcome_available_at<=2026-07-18", "review_status": "draft", "review_method": null, "reviewed_at": null, "evidence_hash": "1f2347f1a4839430954a47ab839536732cd208bbfb877e043d6173eb10d81fe1", "quality_flags": ["perturbation_derived"], "official_temporal_eligible": false, "backbone_training_cutoff": "2024-06-30", "guard_days": 30, "experiment_as_of": "2026-08-17"}