Explanation: Thousands of firefighters burned grassland in eastern Australia on Monday in a desperate bid to starve an anticipated new front of bushfires of fuel before forecast searing temperatures on Tuesday.

More than 100 fires are ablaze in New South Wales and Victoria states, many of which have been burning for several weeks and including a single blaze that stretches more than 60 km (37.2 miles) in a national park north of Sydney. Conditions are expected to worsen from Tuesday, when temperatures are forecast to top 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) and winds are expected to start picking up. “We are expecting to see across large geographic areas high fire dangers,” Fitzsimmons told reporters in Sydney. “Firefighters are doing kilometers and kilometers of back burning operations, containment line establishment and consolidation.”  Wildfires have killed at least four people, destroyed more than 680 homes and burned more than 2.5 million acres (1 million hectares) of bushland across eastern Australia since the start of November. Bushfires are common in Australia’s hot, dry summers, but the ferocity and early arrival of the fires in the southern spring is unprecedented. Experts have said climate change has left bushland tinder-dry. Stoked by strong winds, several fires have combined into a single massive blaze that is threatening the region of Hawkesbury, about 50 km north west of Sydney. Authorities have warned the blaze is unlikely to be extinguished until meaningful rain arrives - which is not expected for at least three months - and forecasts indicate the fire could be pushed towards larger population areas. “The big danger is if the winds come from the west and that’s exactly what is forecast,” Hawkesbury City Mayor Barry Calvert told Reuters. “People are trying to clear their gutters, clean up the leaves on the ground, anything they can do to keep their properties safe.”  Calvert said many locals were struggling to move animals and livestock in an area renowned for breeding racehorses. “We’ve opened the showground for people to move their animals, but many people here may have 20 horses and only two horse boxes so they can’t move them quickly,” Calvert told Reuters. The wildfires have blanketed Sydney - home to more than 5 million people - in smoke and ash for more than two weeks, turning the daytime sky orange, obscuring visibility and prompting commuters to wear breathing masks. The city, usually known for its sea breezes, clear skies and beach-dotted coastline, has made several appearances in the top ten lists of the most polluted cities in the world. Severe water restrictions begin in the harbor city on Tuesday. Australia’s worst bushfires on record destroyed thousands of homes in Victoria state in February 2009, killing 173 people and injuring 414.


NEW VACCINE COULD STOP HEROIN ABUSE BY BLOCKING HIGH, STUDY SUGGESTS

Explanation: Credit: Paul Asman and Jill Lenoble The story describes early development of a vaccine for blocking the high from heroin. The story, especially the headline, makes the leap that because it’s worked in a few monkeys, it will work in people (and be safe). It’s just too soon in the scientific research process for anyone to know if this “vaccine” will work in people. To its credit, the story did include some comments from an independent expert who discussed how the vaccine–if it ever comes to market–would not be a “panacea” for heroin addiction. Thousands of Americans are dying every year from heroin overdoses and the numbers are increasing. Along with the deaths, there are also viral infections from dirty needles, such as hepatitis C and HIV. New ways to treat heroin addiction are needed–but that doesn’t mean journalists should shine a spotlight on preclinical research, potentially raising false hopes of readers.

Given the level of development, cost is not a consideration at this juncture. Benefits were not put in quantified terms. Instead, qualitative terms are used. Phrasing like, “elicited a successful immune response that neutralized heroin…” and, “…hinting that their immune systems were already primed…” provide insight to medical professionals, but are perhaps confusing to lay readers. With research this preliminary, far more caveats were needed to pass this criterion. The story notes “The researchers did not observe any harmful side effects from the intervention.” Having said that, again the study was conducted in four monkeys under highly controlled lab conditions–not in humans. The comment of one of the authors, “We believe this vaccine candidate will prove safe for human trials,” feels premature. On what grounds does he believe this? To have passed this criteria, the story should have said the harms are unknown. It’s not until the fifth paragraph that the story reveals the heroin-tetanus-toxoid vaccine has been administered to mice and four monkeys. This is irresponsible to readers who have been primed to assume otherwise, based on the story’s headline and initial statements. Later in the story we learn that no human research is planned, but are given no explanation as to why. There is no evidence of disease mongering here. Having said that, we would have liked to have seen a comment or two on the rising abuse of heroin and other opioids. The comments of an independent knowledgable source provide balance to the story. However, the story did not disclose that the researcher, Kim D. Janda, has filed a  patent application on this technology. See “Heroin Haptens, Immunoconjugates and Related Uses.” The independent source’s quote explains that this would likely not become a panacea, and other treatment options would still be needed. The story explains that research has not yet taken place in humans, indirectly inferring that it’s not available. The story does not suggest that this research is novel or unique. As noted, other attempts to develop a vaccine for opiate addiction have not worked out. The story closely resembles the news release from the Scripps Institute in substance and in the use of quotes from the researchers. However, because an outside source was quoted, it doesn’t rely solely on the news release.


Foster care, mental health, guns on DeWine’s 2020 agenda.

Explanation: Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine will soon propose “rather dramatic changes” to the foster care system and significant additional investment in mental health programs, he said Friday.

Mike DeWine, Mental health, Opioids, Health, Foster care, Ohio

It’s part of his commitment to help every Ohioan reach their “God-given potential,” the first-term Republican told The Associated Press in a wide-ranging year-end interview at the Governor’s Residence. Samples of what he said: ___ MENTAL HEALTH CARE It’s “vitally important” that those with mental issues have the opportunity to get help as early as possible. Improving the state’s current resources is among his priorities in the new year. “Ohio is not where it needs to be in regard to mental health,” he said. ___ OPIOID LAWSUITS A working group DeWine has convened is nearing agreement on the parameters for spending any settlement dollars that come from lawsuits against drugmakers over their role in the opioid crisis, he said. “I think it’s, frankly, pretty much a consensus that this money be used for dealing with addiction problems. ___ YOUTH PRISONS DeWine said he has ordered his director of youth prisons to report back to him on findings this week that Ohio’s rate of assault against juvenile offenders is the highest in the nation. He said he’d like to put in place real-time monitoring of all abuse allegations. “First of all, it’s alarming,” he said. “We have a moral obligation to make sure that the people who are incarcerated, whether young people, whether adults, are taken care of and are not abused.” ___ DIVIDED POLITICS DeWine declined to discuss impeachment proceedings against Republican President Donald Trump. But the former congressman and senator said he believes his administration’s efforts at bipartisan compromise in politically divided Ohio should inspire faith that some politicians can get along. The 72-year-old governor declined to second-guess current congressional representatives, saying being in Congress is “probably more difficult today for a lot of reasons.” Of his successful bipartisan efforts, he said, “”I’m not cocky enough to say that I would be doing that today. I don’t know; I’m not there.” ___ GUNS He said he’s optimistic that a stalled package of gun-law changes will eventually make it through the Legislature. The proposal was praised by the Democratic mayor of Dayton, which was rocked by a mass shooting in August, only to run into resistance in the Republican-controlled Legislature. “I think we’re going to pass it,” DeWine predicted Friday. ___ ABORTION DeWine declined to discuss whether he would sign one of the two Ohio bills that included a description of a medically impossible procedure for  reimplanting ectopic pregnancies. He said he wants to focus first on the legal fate of legislation, enacted in Ohio and elsewhere, that bans abortions after the first fetal heartbeat. “Before we do another else in regard to (those bills), we should let this case work its way, we should see what the United States Supreme Court says,” DeWine said. Asked if that meant he wouldn’t sign any more abortion bills until that decision is made, DeWine said, “I didn’t say that.” He said he is focused on the heartbeat case and not taking positions on other pending abortion legislation at this time. ___ FIRST-YEAR ACHIEVEMENTS DeWine said he’s proud he passed a needed gas-tax increase and a compromise state budget that added funding for mental health and children’s programs and cut income taxes for low-wage earners with support from both parties.


11-year-old shares her story battling cancer with classmates.

Explanation: Sophia Stewart can describe her journey from cancer to wellness through bead necklaces.

While the fifth-grade student at Walworth Elementary School was getting treatment for leukemia, she received beads of courage from health care professionals to mark every step of the way. Black ones symbolized “pokes,” when Sophia had blood tests or shots. White ones symbolized chemotherapy. Sophia has 24 beads that mark the number of spinal taps she had to endure, the Journal Times reported. Blue beads represented clinic visits. Red meant blood transfusions. She has six of those beads. She received a special bead for hair loss. Yellow marked overnight stays at the hospital. Sophia has nearly 100 of those collected over three years. An ambulance trip earned her a star on her necklace. But there were pains that she suffered for which there were no beads. When Sophia was in first grade, she lost her hair to chemotherapy. At the school she was attending at the time, older students teased her about her baldness. Her mother, Connie, said Sophia never disclosed the teasing until just recently. Sophia and her mom live in Walworth now, and the 11-year-old cancer survivor recently transferred to Walworth Elementary School. On April 10, her teachers held a special half-hour meeting with 60 fellow fifth-graders where Sophia shared her story by explaining each of the beads on her necklace. School counselor Jennifer Ott-Wilson said it is uncommon for her to call students together to meet with a new classmate. Ott-Wilson did it once before for a girl who was suffering from a condition that caused baldness. This meeting was something Sophia wanted to do. “It was Sophia’s decision to tell the class about her experience,” Ott-Wilson said. The fifth-graders quietly filed into the school’s counselors’ office, which was the size of a classroom. They sat on small chairs, overstuffed sofas, bean bag chairs and cross legged on the floor, all facing Sophia. Sophia is a quiet girl, and she was a bit nervous about this special assembly. But she got help from her mom and Ott-Wilson. Connie Stewart said Sophia was 5 years old when her first symptoms occurred. Playing T-ball, she had a hard time running because her back hurt and her legs hurt. Stewart said doctors had a hard time diagnosing what was wrong. Some thought it was growing pains; another thought it was appendicitis. It was not until a doctor took a close look at Sophia’s blood work that he noticed something wrong. He sent Sophia to Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin in Wauwatosa. There, doctors discovered the little girl had leukemia. Stewart said her daughter was diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, a blood cancer that attacks the body’s immune system. The disease also attacks the body’s main blood-making area, which is near the hips. Sophia said a doctor told her that her “blood factory was malfunctioning.” While the disease can be fatal if it is untreated, compared to other kinds of cancer, it is easier to treat. But that does not mean it was easy for 5-year-old Sophia. “Cancer involves a lot of treatments,” Stewart said. At the assembly in the counselor’s office, Sophia’s new classmates did not ask questions. “What do you want your fellow students to know?” Ott-Wilson asked Sophia. “I don’t know,” Sophia said, still feeling shy. Ott-Wilson asked the students what they thought Sophia felt when she was diagnosed with leukemia. Some students replied “scared;” others said “sad.” Ott-Wilson said she saw courage. “She’s inspired me about what courage is,” Ott-Wilson told the students. Sophia showed photos from events that occurred during her treatment for leukemia. One was a picture of her wearing a hat crocheted by a Walworth library group. Another showed a trip she and her family took to Give Kids the World Village, a nonprofit resort in Florida that provides vacations for children with critical illnesses. And, of course, there were the beads. Strings and strings of them. The beads are manufactured and provided to clinics and hospitals by a nonprofit called the Beads of Courage Program to hand out to children undergoing treatment for life-threatening diseases and injuries. Sophia displayed one special bead, in the shape of an anchor. It represented the support she received from her family and friends while she went through three years of treatments. Stewart said her daughter ended treatments on March 11, 2016. Now, Sophia goes back to a clinic once every three months for blood work, to make sure that the disease does not come back. In a year or so, those will become annual visits. Although she is shy when talking about her illness, Sophia loves to talk about things she likes to do now that she is on her way to wellness. She now plays soccer and competes in track, doing the hurdles, the shot put, throwing discus, and doing the high jump. She feels no pain in her legs. Sophia said she also loved her time at Camp One Step on Geneva Lake, a weeklong camp for children who have cancer. “That’s the best camp ever,” Sophia said. She said last year was her first year at the camp. Sophia sees her future in the kitchen. “I want to bake,” she said. She said she watches and enjoys baking shows on television. She said she loves to bake cookies, cupcakes and brownies. Nobody else in her family is a baker, she added. “I’ll be the first one,” she said. ___ Information from: The Journal Times, http://www.journaltimes.com


Weight Loss Really Can Reverse Diabetes, New Study Finds

Explanation: This Time story reports a study about reversing recently diagnosed diabetes via substantial weight loss. One strength of the story is its description of what happens in the body with diabetes and how medications deal with blood sugar, but not the underlying problem. The story competently describes the study methods and findings, but does not address any downsides, namely potential harms or costs, of the strict diet that was used to achieve the weight loss. New ways to treat type 2 diabetes are always newsworthy because the numbers of people with the condition are so large — about 30 million Americans, or nearly 10% of the population, have the disease. What’s newsworthy here is that a short extreme dietary intervention, followed by a less extreme intervention, was adhered to by nearly 80% of people and led to remission of diabetes in a large percentage of them. It will be important to see how these people do in the long-run–if the remission stands the test of time.

The story makes no mention of costs, although the diet intervention included weeks of a liquid formula diet, along with support services such as nutritional education and cognitive behavioral therapy. The story quantifies how much weight people lost and how many people went into remission, both in the group on the liquid diet and the control group (in which subject received the usual care for diabetes). That’s good, and worthy of a satisfactory. However, the story does not explain what remission is or how it was measured. The study used hemoglobin A1c levels, which indicate blood sugar levels over the previous three months, and is often used to diagnose type 2 diabetes. Remission was defined as having a hemoglobin A1c level below the threshold for diagnosis without taking any diabetes medications. (This good outcome might still be characterized as pre-diabetes.) In addition, readers aren’t told how high blood sugars readings were before the diet, so it’s impossible to tell how big the change was with weight loss. Harms of the very restricted diet were not mentioned. Were there any problems resulting from months on the liquid diet? Did subjects have trouble adhering to the restrictions? There were quite a few side effects during treatment. According to the study, during the intervention, most common side effects/complaints were constipation (56%), headache (45%), increased cold sensitivity (44%), dizziness (42%). These tended to dissipate over time. The story adeptly described the size, randomization of subjects, and control group nature of the study. The story mentions several difference outcomes in terms of weight loss —  “most of the people in the diet group lost about 22 pounds” and “nearly a quarter of the people who managed their weight were able to lose 33 pounds or more.” We found this phrasing vague and a bit confusing and still don’t know what the average weight loss was in the diet group. No disease-mongering about diabetes here. The story would have been stronger if it had discussed that remission is not the same as a cure–the disease can recur if the behavior change isn’t maintained. The story quotes a study author but no other sources. We think readers deserve to hear from experts not involved with the study at hand to provide context about the findings. The story mentions gastric bypass surgery as another method to dramatic weight loss and that has been shown to reverse diabetes. It also mentioned the high cost of and risk of complications from gastric bypass. Unfortunately, readers cannot compare the cost and harms of the managed diet approach, as the story omits their mention. The story outlines the components of the diet, but not whether an interested could access such care from a physician. Given the extremeness of the diet — the first months are limited to 850 calories a day and education and therapy adjuncts are brought in to help people maintain their progress when switching from the liquid nutrition to real food, not to mention a mountain of evidence on the difficulty of maintaining weight loss — it seems likely that health care providers’ help would be necessary. The story distinguishes the study’s finding from other diabetes-related evidence. Weight loss has previously been shown to prevent people with prediabetes from progressing to diabetes and to help manage diabetes itself. This study shows that a short, extreme intervention can lead to longer term remission. The story does not appear to rely on the new release put out by The Lancet, the journal that published the study.


Peru's giant jungle fish hooks conscientious gourmets.

Explanation: Move over Chilean sea bass, Peruvians are raising a giant Amazon fish and sending it abroad to answer growing cries for sustainable seafood in haute cuisine.

Farm-raised, fresh-water Paiche have journeyed from the murky Amazon to restaurants in cities from Houston to Paris. The low-fat, mercury-free white fish may soon be available at select U.S. grocery stores. Paiche, which at up to 220 pounds (100 kgs)is one of the world’s largest fish, fed spear-fishing indigenous peoples for centuries. But their numbers dwindled when nets were introduced in the Amazon and the region’s cities grew and developed. Amazone, a company backed by Peruvian mining and cement conglomerate the Hochschild Group, hopes to save the species from extinction by breeding organic, farm-raised fish for export and releasing some back into the wild. “What really got me most interested was the effort to try to control the commercial fishing of an endangered species,” said Jose Duarte, chef at the Italian Peruvian restaurant Taranta in Boston, Mass. “It’s a really good fish ... it’s almost like a sea bass with a better texture,” said Duarte, who was preparing a daily special of pan-seared Paiche with panca peppers and scalloped potatoes. The Monterey Bay Aquarium has listed Chilean sea bass, also known as Patagonian toothfish, as a fish to avoid because of unsustainable fishing practices and potentially high levels of mercury. Amazone is not yet profitable. It expects to export $3 million worth of frozen Paiche this year, up from $500,000 sold in 2011, when the fish first hit global markets. Paiche, a carnivorous, air-breathing giant also known as Arapaima, can be cut into generous, bone-free fillets. Chefs say it is easy to sear and very difficult to burn due to its high collagen levels. Restaurants such as Robert at the Museum of Art and Design in New York, Area 31 in Miami and Latin Bites in Houston now serve Amazone’s Paiche. It is also sold in Spain, France and Italy. “The idea is to have a supply for global gourmet markets,” said Isaac Gherson, CEO of Amazone. “We don’t want Paiche to become a type of commodity — that would mean exploiting the gain.”   Paiche is also earning a place in Lima, an emerging culinary capital, where celebrity chef Pedro Miguel Schiaffino grills Paiche steaks and marinates the fish with lime to make ceviche, a Peruvian staple, at his upscale Malabar restaurant. Amazone sells the fish in the United States through ArtisanFish, a Florida-based wholesaler that markets hormone-free, premium seafood with the goal of protecting the environment. “We have a strong presence in New York, Philadelphia and Washington and we are expanding very soon into the Midwest,” said founder Adrian Burstein. ArtisanFish has negotiated an agreement to sell Paiche in a U.S. retail chain, but Burstein declined to name the retailer due to contract provisions. “It was hard to replace Chilean sea bass with an alternative that has similar qualities but is truly sustainable,” said Burstein. “Now you have an option — Paiche is that option.”


The Swedish parliament rejected seven proposals in May 2017 establishing a mandatory vaccination program, enacting a ban on the practice.

Explanation: What's true: The Swedish parliament did reject two proposals calling for mandatory vaccinations. What's false: There were two proposals, not seven; and the country already has a voluntary vaccination programs so the parliament did not implement any "ban."

Politics, Age of Autism, anti-vaccine, antivaxxer

In March 2017, anti-vaccination blogs presented misleading reports concerning a pair of rejected motions that month by the Swedish parliament, also known as the Riksdagen. Frequent purveyors of conspiracy theories and fake news such as YourNewsWire.com reported variations of the following: The Swedish Riksdagen (parliament) rejected seven motions on May 10 that would have enshrined forced vaccinations into law, stating “It would violate our [Swedish Constitution] if we introduced compulsory vaccinations, or mandatory vaccinations.” Noting also the “massive resistance (by Swedes) to all forms of coercion with regard to vaccinations“, the Riksdag also made reference to “frequent serious adverse reactions” in children who receive vaccinations. A spokesperson for the Public Health Agency of Sweden, the Folkhalsomyndigheten, told us via email on 30 March 2018 that only two — not seven — motions proposing a mandatory vaccination program were rejected in 2017. They added that the proposals were not rejected because vaccinations would be “harmful,” but because “all health care in Sweden, including vaccination programs, is voluntary.” Conspiracy theory blogs also reported that the Riksdagen “banned” mandatory vaccinations. What it did not mention is that the country’s voluntary vaccination program, which covers ten diseases, already dates back decades. While Sweden’s program is voluntary, the vast majority of children are still vaccinated; the Folkhalsomyndigheten spokesperson told us, “More than 97 percent of the 2 year olds have been vaccinated against measles, mumps and rubella, for example.” Overall, however, the country experienced an increase in measles cases in 2017. The European Centers for Disease Control reported that Sweden was one of 18 nations where the number of cases reported during the first half of 2017 exceeded that of the same period a year earlier. YourNewsWire.com and similar blogs sourced their stories from a report from an “alternative health” group, the National Health Federation. However, this group has come under its share of scrutiny and criticism. For example, the American Cancer Society excoriated the group in a report concerning “unproven methods” of managing the disease, saying: After study of the literature and other available information, the American Cancer Society has found no evidence that methods of treatment promoted by the National Health Federation (NHF) result in objective benefit in the treatment of cancer in human beings. Lacking such evidence, the American Cancer Society strongly urges individuals with cancer not to seek treatment based on the recommendations of the NHF.


Gastric Balloon in a Pill Helps Patients Lose Weight Without Surgery or Endoscopy

Explanation: This release describes a new type of gastric balloon being developed that is inserted via a pill rather than through endoscopy. The interim study on the device was presented at an obesity medical conference and has not been peer-reviewed. The approach appears to be novel; a capsule containing a collapsed balloon is swallowed, then filled with water via a small attached catheter that remains outside the patient’s mouth. After four months, a valve on the balloon opens and the balloon deflates and is excreted by the body. The small patient group (34 volunteers) in the study lost an average of 22 pounds after four months. The device’s main advantage is that it is non-invasive (except for a small catheter which some could find uncomfortable) but the release is based on data that has not been peer-reviewed or published. The release played down the limited evidence base and possible harms and neglected costs. Obesity appears to be a problem that isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says America, at least, appears stuck in unhealthy lifestyle paterns. One-in-three Americans is obese. Obesity is a leading contributor to dozens of other health conditions. As a result, millions of people turn to  gastric bypass, and the less intrusive (and less effective) gastric balloon and other medical procedures to try to lose weight when other methods fail. It seems the more effective the procedure is in taking off the weight, the more complications arise. The Eprise gastric balloon pill described in the release claims to be as effective but less intrusive as current methods. If it proves effective, it could be a welcome addition to the weight-loss arsenal.

Association/Society news release,Weight loss

The release doesn’t suggest what the procedure might cost. It could be more than the gastric balloons already on the market due to the use of new technology or it could be less since it is less invasive than surgery. It would be useful to provide readers with some idea of how the procedure will be priced in comparison to similar procedures. A web search found prices for gastric balloon procedures ranging from $6,000 to $10,000 across the United States. Whereas the Eprise gastric balloon pill would be available to those with a BMI of 27 and above, according to the release, it is not a permanent weight-loss solution. Not exactly a bargain then? The release presents the benefits in extremely vague terms. We’re told 34 patients took part in a multi-center study and that they lost an average of 22 pounds or 37 percent of their excess weight. We aren’t told whether all patients lost weight, what the average starting weight was, what the age range was, and other useful demographic information. We’re also told that patients “saw improvements in triglycerides and hemoglobin A1c (HgbA1c) levels, risk factors for heart disease and  diabetes.” What sorts of improvements might these be? Unfortunately, there is no published paper or accessible conference abstract to read to find more details and so the meaning remains unclear. The release gives only a very brief mention of harms, citing nausea and vomiting as the most common adverse events reported. However, with a catheter patients might experience irritation in their esophagus or stomach (which could lead to bleeding or ulcers) or infection from bacteria surrounding the balloon. A concern for this type of balloon, which is intended to deflate, would be improper deflating and obstruction of the intestine — a potentially serious complication. The release doesn’t link to a published abstract or study results so it’s not possible to compare the study methodology with what’s presented in the release. It’s pretty clear that this interim report from this study provides limited evidence of the device’s effectiveness, but there are few words of caution in the release. Generally speaking, results presented at scientific conferences should be interpreted very carefully because they haven’t undergone peer review. And news releases that present such results should alert readers to this fact. The release doesn’t engage in disease mongering. The release states that the manufacturer is “studying what it says is the first procedureless gastric balloon. '” It isn’t exactly clear what role the the manufacturer had in the study but the release does disclose that one of the quoted study co-authors “holds an equity position in Allurion Technologies,” the manufacturers of the device. This means he has an ownership interest in the company and will profit if the device is approved and adopted. The release makes several mentions of alternative therapies including traditional gastric balloon surgery, other newly approved gastric balloon devices, bariatric surgery, weight-loss drugs and diet and exercise. The release also suggests the gastric balloon pill would be an option filling a treatment gap between weight-loss drugs and surgery. While the release doesn’t offer data on how the gastric balloon pill compared with all these alternative methods, we’ll give it a pass for the frequent mentions of alternatives. The release makes it clear that the device is not yet commercially available. The device manufacturer claims to be the first to deliver a gastric balloon via capsule. At just 34 patients, and with the results unpublished, the study is just too small to be making claims like this: “Our findings demonstrate that Elipse provides individuals and their caregivers with a safe, effective, and non-invasive weight loss intervention that does not require surgery,endoscopy, or anesthesia.”


Somali Muslim refugees "took over" the small town of Shelbyville, Tennessee and targeted local Christians with "violent Islamic crimes".

Explanation: Based on the evidence we were able to amass, Shelbyville, Tennessee doesn’t have a Somali refugee problem; Freedom Daily, on the other hand, does.

Politics Immigration, fake news, freedom daily, Islamophobia

On 25 July 2017, the far-right news and opinion web site Freedom Daily posted an article purporting to give an account of a violent Somali Muslim “takeover” of the small town of Shelbyville, Tennessee. Despite its surface resemblance to a news report, however, the post (dubiously bylined “Prissy Holly”) was an ill-informed, opinion-laden attack on the Muslim refugee population of, well … everywhere. It begins: Muslims continue to prove they have little intentions of integrating into modern civilization after fleeing their war-torn countries, as they continue to force Islam and Sharia Law onto unassuming Americans. Cities across America where migrants have been allowed to invade are rapidly transforming into Sharia swamps, just take a look at the startling transformation of cities like Dearborn and Minneapolis. As many Americans were left in shock and horror following the Minnesota woman being violently shot down by a Somali Muslim cop, now Somali migrants have set their sights on another American city to invade. Desperate Tennessee residents are frantically crying out for help, as the small town they once loved and cherished is being completely overrun by hordes of nasty Muslim migrants, who have now started targeting local Christians with violent Islamic crimes. The text becomes more specific as it continues: While it would be wise to keep these terrorists confined to Somalia as much as possible, liberals keep advocating to bring Somali Muslims to America by the thousands, where hordes of Somalis are dumped into American cities annually much to the horror of Americans across the country. And unfortunately for the residents of Shelbyville, Tennessee, a small American town about an hour’s drive from Nashville, they’re now becoming intimately acquainted with exactly what Sharia Law and Islam teaches, after third world migrants were dropped into their town overnight. From reading those paragraphs, one might easily come away with the impression that Shelbyville experienced some massive influx of Somali refugees in recent weeks or months, but that is not the case. Over the past fifteen years, the U.S. has resettled 51 refugees there, of whom 47 were Somali, according to data from the Refugee Processing Center, which tracks refugee resettlement in the United States. The largest number of refugees to resettle in the town in a single year was 11. With a population of around 20,000, these arrivals represent less than one percent of Shelbyville’s total population. Official resettlement isn’t the only way refugees arrive in U.S. communities, however. In the case of Shelbyville, already-resettled refugees began moving there in the early 2000s in order to take advantage of job openings in the local meatpacking industry. Exact counts are hard to come by, although, according to a 2010 U.S. Census estimate, Shelbyville had 446 foreign-born residents originating from sub-Saharan Africa as of that year, amounting to 2.3 percent of the total population. In a small town, that could cause a noticeable cultural shift. But it’s hardly a “takeover.” In point of fact, we learned from Shelbyville Police Chief Jan Phillips that the Somali refugee population of the town has dramatically decreased since that time. A 2015 Census Bureau estimate put the total number of residents of Subsaharan African origin at 166 (less than 1 percent of the population). Needless to say, Phillips dismissed the notion that they had “taken over” Shelbyville as “completely false”. A later paragraph in the Freedom Daily post describes the “culture clash” supposedly happening in the town (emphasis in the original): “They’ve had an impact here. Unfortunately, it’s not been a good impact,” said Brian Mosely, a reporter for the local Shelbyville Times-Gazette stated. “I found that there was just an enormous culture clash going on here,” he said. “The Somalis were, according to a lot of the people I talked to here, were being very, very rude, inconsiderate, very demanding. They would go into stores and haggle over prices. They would also demand to see a male salesperson, would not deal with women in stores. Their culture is totally alien to anything the residents are used to,” Mosely added. But although these remarks by former Shelbyville Times-Gazette reporter Brian Mosely are accurately quoted, they weren’t uttered this year, or last year, or even five years ago. They date from 2009, when Mosely, who had written extensively about the arrival of Somali refugees in Shelbyville during the mid-2000s, was interviewed by the Christian Broadcasting Network. What of the “Muslim migrants” who Freedom Daily says are “targeting local Christians with violent Islamic crimes”? Here’s the one and only example of such a crime they were able to cite (emphasis, again, in the original): But unfortunately for locals, a “culture clash” would soon be the least of their concerns after a series of violent crimes were taken out at the hands of these Somali migrants. Several months ago, the liberal media completely white-washed a series of events where three churches were shot up by Muslims. Jihad Watch was the only one to even report on the story, where AK47’s were used to shatter the windows of multiple churches in the area. They reported: “A Muslim shoots up three churches and nothing is said about his motive or his Islamic identity. Would the same courtesy be shown a Christian who shot up three mosques? Why the coverup? Who is responsible for it? Three churches were shot up in the Shelbyville, TN area starting on the night of Sep 27, 2016. The Horse Mountain Church of Christ was shot 16 more times the night of Sep 29. The Philippi United Methodist Church along with another church was also struck by 7.62 x 39 rounds on the 29th. (7.62 x 39 rounds are consistent with an AK47 or a SKS rifle) The Bedford County Agriculture Center was also attacked with gunfire on the 29th, shattering the front glass. There were also reports of utility boxes being shot during this time.” Although it is based on an actual incident, the Freedom Daily account is a bald-faced misrepresentation of the facts. Contrary to what is claimed, the 2016 Shelbyville church shootings did receive a fair amount of press coverage, in which it was, in fact, routinely reported that the sole suspect, Wendell Tobias Buchanan, was a “recent convert to Islam,” according to his family. What Wendell Tobias Buchanan was not, however, was a Somali refugee. No Somalis were involved or implicated in those attacks in any way. Freedom Daily’s attempt to portray Shelbyville, Tennessee as a community torn asunder by violent foreign jihadists does not hold up to even the most basic scrutiny, trading instead on appeals to emotion and based on false reporting. Even the photographs in the article are fake, Chief Phillips told us. He is correct. An image supposedly showing downtown Shelbyville actually depicts the small town of Bell Buckle, 10 miles away. An uncaptioned photograph showing the police response to a public disturbance was actually taken in the aftermath of the 2015 Dylan Roof church shooting in Charleston, South Carolina.


Crossroads GPS Says Joe Sestak "voted to gut Medicare ... reducing benefits for 854,489 seniors" and jeopardizing "access to care for millions.

Explanation: Crossroads GPS ad blasts Joe Sestak for vote to "gut Medicare"

National, Health Care, Medicare, Message Machine 2010, Crossroads GPS,

Crossroads GPS, a deep-pocketed conservative advocacy group that has been running issue advertisements in a variety of key 2010 Congressional contests, recently produced an ad attacking Rep. Joe Sestak, D-Pa., who's running for a Senate seat against former GOP Rep. Pat Toomey. The ad's narration begins, "Over half a million Pennsylvanians unemployed, and what's Congressman Joe Sestak done? He voted to gut Medicare, slashing benefits for Pennsylvania seniors. The Obama-Sestak scheme could jeopardize access to care for millions." In the visuals, the ad says, "Reducing benefits for 854,489 seniors," a statistic it attributes to the Kaiser Family Foundation, a non-partisan group that studies health care policy. The ad also says on screen that Sestak "voted to cut Medicare by $500 billion," citing his vote in favor of the Democratic health care bill that was signed into law earlier this year by President Barack Obama. Focusing on seniors makes sense in Pennsylvania: It's the fourth oldest state in the union, with 15.5 percent of its residents over 65, trailing only Florida, West Virginia and Maine. So we thought we'd check to see whether the ad's claims about Medicare cuts were accurate. Initially, we were puzzled by the reference to "854,489 seniors," since it seemed like a remarkably specific number. When we contacted Crossroads GPS, a spokesman pointed us to a Kaiser Family Foundation database on Medicare Advantage, which is an option within Medicare -- the federal health care plan for Americans over 65 -- provided by private insurers. The Kaiser table shows that Crossroads GPS correctly cited the number of Pennsylvania seniors enrolled in Medicare Advantage. That number accounts for nearly 39 percent of all Medicare enrollees in the Keystone State, which is higher than the national average of 25 percent. Because the ad focuses on Medicare Advantage, we'll begin with that facet of the new law. As we stated in a recent fact-check of a different ad, the Medicare Advantage program was intended to bring more private sector efficiency to the Medicare program. But the program's higher costs made it a prime target for architects of the new health care law. A June 2009 analysis from the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission found that, on average, Medicare Advantage programs cost taxpayers 14 percent more than traditional Medicare. So the health care law phased out the extra payments Medicare Advantage programs were due to receive over the next three to six years, with the goal of bringing their costs in line with traditional Medicare. The changes were designed to save a projected $136 billion. Would these changes translate into "reducing benefits" for Medicare Advantage beneficiaries, as the Crossroads GPS ad says? The cuts do put in jeopardy some of the more generous benefits that Medicare Advantage plans currently offer, such as dental and vision coverage, enhanced prescription drug coverage, coverage for the beneficiary's Medicare premiums and gym memberships. (The specific benefits differ by plan; indeed, variations in benefit packages are a major way that providers compete with each other for seniors.) "Many insurers are expected to stop participating in the program, while others will increase the premiums they charge seniors," said Michael Tanner, a health care specialist at the libertarian Cato Institute. On the other hand, the new law makes clear that Medicare Advantage providers cannot cut basic Medicare benefits -- just extra benefits that are not available to people getting traditional Medicare. This doesn't make the cuts any less real, but the ad, by not mentioning this context, might give viewers a skewed impression of the law's provisions. In addition, other parts of the new law expand coverage for seniors and ultimately make some components of Medicare less expensive for patients. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services -- the federal office that oversees Medicare -- announced last week that, on average, Medicare Advantage premiums will drop by 1 percent between 2010 and 2011. All of this suggests that there will probably be benefit cuts to Medicare Advantage programs but not to the core program. And the exact shape of these changes is not known yet. "It is not yet clear how plans will respond to payment reductions enacted in the health reform law, nor what these changes will mean for beneficiaries nationwide or in any given state," said Tricia Neuman, director of the Medicare Policy Project at the Kaiser Family Foundation. So looking back at the ad's claims, do the Medicare Advantage changes "gut Medicare" or "jeopardize access to care for millions"? We think "gut" is an overheated way of putting it. There will likely be cuts to Medicare Advantage, but to suggest that these will eviscerate the program seems exaggerated, since basic benefits must be preserved. What about the possibility that the changes could "jeopardize access to care for millions"? Setting aside the fact that there are not "millions" of Medicare Advantage beneficiaries in Pennsylvania, we'll acknowledge that there's a risk that some Medicare Advantage providers will look at their financial balance sheets and decide to pull out of the market. But Neuman said that Medicare beneficiaries have an average of 30 plans available to them in 2010 -- and if they can't find one they like, they can always sign up for regular Medicare. That doesn't seem to us like a situation in which access will be jeopardized. What if you assume that the ad was referring to Medicare as a whole (not just to Medicare Advantage) when it talked about gutting Medicare and jeopardizing access to care? Answering this question brings up the $500 billion cut referenced in the ad. The new law would indeed slow the rate of growth of the broader Medicare program by roughly that amount over 10 years. But it's not a slam-dunk that this represents a cut. The new law does not take $500 billion out of the current Medicare budget. Rather, it would slow the program's future growth over 10 years. Medicare spending will still increase -- in fact, the Congressional Budget Office, Congress' non-partisan arbiter on such matters, projects that Medicare spending will reach $929 billion in 2020, up from $499 billion in actual spending in 2009. Such reductions could certainly squeeze future benefits, especially when inflation in the health care sector is taken into account. But once again, we feel that the use of the word "gut" and the notion that beneficiaries will find their access to care jeopardized amounts to an exaggeration. The changes in the new law "are not going to cause any hospital, and few other providers, to drop Medicare patients -- they couldn’t survive without them," said Henry Aaron, a health care specialist at the centrist-to-liberal Brookings Institution. So let's recap. The ad is on fairly safe ground in suggesting that Pennsylvania's 854,489 seniors on Medicare Advantage will see a decline in benefits, but it ignores the fact that no basic benefits will be cut. Meanwhile, the ad uses what we consider overheated language. The changes set in motion by the new law don't strike us, or several experts we spoke to, as ones that will "gut" the program or "jeopardize access to care for millions."


UK faces new legal action over air quality.

Explanation: New legal proceedings have been launched against the British government by environmental law firm ClientEarth over what it says is a failure to tackle air pollution, the firm said on Friday.

ClientEarth has taken action against the government before, which resulted in a Supreme Court judgment last year ordering it to submit new air quality plans to the European Commission. But ClientEarth says those plans do not go far enough to tackle nitrogen dioxide emissions and has lodged papers at the High Court to seek an order to quash them and order new ones. “Our plans clearly set out how we will improve the UK’s air quality through a new program of Clean Air Zones, which alongside national action and continued investment in clean technologies will create cleaner, healthier air for all,” a Department for Food and Rural Affairs spokeswoman said in response. Last year the European Commission also began 21 infringement proceedings against EU member nations in breach of existing rules and has proposed more stringent legislation in the face of resistance from some governments. Nitrogen oxides reduce air quality and member states have been flouting EU limits on a range of pollutants associated with more than 400,000 premature deaths per year, according to European Commission data. Under the EU’s Air Quality Directive, member states were supposed to comply with nitrogen dioxide (NO2) limits in 2010, but could have extended that to 2015 if they delivered plans to deal with high levels of the gas, which is produced mainly by diesel engines and causes respiratory illnesses. UK government data last year showed only five out of a total 43 pollution zones in Britain would comply by the end of 2015, 15 zones by 2020, 38 by 2025 and 40 by 2030. The remaining three zones - Greater London, the West Midlands and West Yorkshire urban areas would not even comply by 2030, the data showed. Under plans submitted to the European Commission in December, “Clean Air Zones” would be introduced in areas of Birmingham, Leeds, Nottingham, Derby and Southampton where pollution is most serious by 2020. Vehicles such as old buses, taxis, coaches and lorries have to pay a charge to enter these zones but private passenger cars would not be charged. “The government’s plans were an insult to those being made sick and dying from air pollution and failed to consider strong measures to get the worst polluting diesel vehicles out of our town and city centers,” said ClientEarth lawyer Alan Andrews.


The senate voted 51-48 to repeal the Affordable Care Act on 12 January 2017.

Explanation: What's true: The United States Senate voted 51-48 to approve a budget that would allow the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. What's false: The senate did not vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act on 12 January 2017.

Uncategorized, aca, affordable care act, Health Care

On 12 January 2017, the United States Senate voted 51 to 48 to approve a budget resolution for the upcoming year. At the time of its passage, many news outlets reported that the Senate was “one step closer” to repealing the Affordable Care Act: The Senate took a crucial step to pave the way toward repealing Obamacare early Thursday morning, passing a budget resolution that would let Republicans’ eventual repeal bill move through the chamber with just 51 votes. The measure passed 51-48, with every Senate Democrat present opposing it, and every Senate Republican except Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) supporting it. If the House of Representatives passes the same measure — and they plan to do so later this week — it will go into effect, and make sure that Obamacare repeal cannot be filibustered by Senate Democrats. Shortly after this budget was approved, a viral message started circulating on Facebook which claimed that the Senate had voted to immediately repeal several individual provisions afforded by the ACA:  In Case You Missed It The Senate voted 51 to 48: 1. To end coverage for preexisting conditions, veterans benefits, and aid to rural hospitals. 2. To remove discrimination protection for women in healthcare. 3. Against the provision allowing children to remain on their parent’s insurance till the age of 26. 4. To cut off funding for the Child Health Insurance Program (CHIP). 5. Against ACA contraceptive coverage and maternity care provision. 6. To direct committees to send budget legislation to defund and repeal the Affordable Care Act. For those who get health insurance through work, no pre-existing conditions. Lifetime caps for coverage are back for everyone. Real actions are being taken that will affect more than just the 20-30 million people who will lose their health care coverage and the 3 million people who will lose their jobs. Despite their assertions of this being an action to “repeal and replace,” no viable alternative plan has been proposed. The House votes Friday. As of this moment, no replacement exists. Apparently, Speaker Ryan has had his phones cut off because of the volume of calls, so here is his mailing address: 1233 Longworth HOB Washington, D.C. 20515 Fax: (202) 225-3393 The message continued to be shared on social media for weeks, making the warning that the “House votes Friday” outdated. On 13 January 2017, the House voted 227 to 198 to approve the budget blueprint: The House cleared the way on Friday for speedy action to repeal the Affordable Care Act, putting Congress on track to undo the most significant health care law in a half-century. With a near party-line vote of 227 to 198, the House overcame the opposition of Democrats and the anxieties of some Republicans to approve a budget blueprint that allows Republicans to end major provisions of President Obama’s health care law without the threat of a Democratic filibuster in the Senate. The viral Facebook post does list several provisions afforded by the ACA, and the United States government did start passing legislation that could conceivably lead to the repeal of President Barack Obama’s signature health law in early 2017. However, the Senate did not explicitly vote on 12 January 2017 to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Another message about a potential repeal also appeared on social media at the same time. While the previous message exaggerated the Senate’s 51-48 vote, the following message attempted to warn people about what could happen if the health care law was repealed:  Friends … just a reminder that even if you are safely covered behind employer-provided insurance, the protections set forth in the ACA (Affordable Care Act), apply to you too. And if those protections are repealed along with the rest (or any part) of the program, you will also be affected. That means you may be trapped in a job, because your pre-existing condition may mean you will not qualify for new insurance offered by another employer, and the cost of private insurance would be prohibitive. If your employer shuts down, lays you off, or even changes insurers, well, you are out of luck. The Senate GOP voted this week that they would not require an eventual ACA replacement to protect against discrimination for pre-existing conditions, which was the standard before the ACA. It means that you (a young adult under the age of 26) or your adult children (over 18) may find yourselves without the protection of insurance, as the Senate GOP voted last night that an eventual ACA replacement will not be required to allow young people to remain on their parents’ insurance up to the age of 26. It means that if you have a high-risk pregnancy, or life-threatening illness such as cancer, you may not be able to afford all the care you need, because you may hit lifetime or annual caps. If you have an infant born with any kind of severe medical condition, or premature, they may hit their lifetime insurance cap before they are old enough to walk. The Senate GOP voted last night that an eventual ACA replacement program would not be required to prohibit lifetime insurance caps. It means that if you are a struggling parent who is uninsured or under-insured, you will no longer be able to count on at least your kids getting the routine medical and dental care they need under the Children’s Health Insurance Plan (CHIP). The Senate GOP voted that CHIP is not required to be protected by an eventual ACA replacement. These provisions of the ACA affect everyone in this country, not just those without insurance through their employers. Much of the focus on repealing the Affordable Care Act has been on the millions of people who will lose their health insurance. However, as noted in the post above, the ACA actually affects many people beyond those who directly purchased insurance through the government marketplace: Much of the recent attention on the future of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has focused on the fate of the 22.5 million people likely to lose insurance through a repeal of Medicaid expansion and the loss of protections and subsidies in the individual insurance market. Overlooked in the declarations of who stands to lose under plans to “repeal and replace” the ACA are those enrolled in employer-sponsored health plans — the primary source of coverage for people under 65. Job-based plans offered to employees and their families cover 150 million people in the United States. If the ACA is repealed, they stand to lose critical consumer protections that many have come to expect of their employer plan. The ACA also placed limits on out-of-pocket limits, prevented insurance companies from denying coverage to those with pre-existing conditions, and extended coverage to dependents until the age of 26. The Facebook post does list some of the provisions that would potentially be lost with the repeal of the ACA, it does not take into account what will be in the the legislation that is to be written in order to replace it. For instance, President Trump said that he wanted the replacement for the ACA to continue coverage for pre-existing conditions. As Republicans have not yet introduced an official replacement, it is as yet difficult to tell exactly how health insurance in the United States will change as a result, or indeed if it will change at all.


Colonoscopies Miss Many Cancers, Study Finds

Explanation: Screening has been proven to reduce the risk of death from colorectal cancer. Yet fewer than 50% of people get screened, lagging behind other cancer screening tests such as mammography and PSA testing. Colonoscopy is considered the reference standard against which other colorectal cancer screening tests are measured, however, it is not perfect. Indeed, new data published ahead of print in this week’s Annals of Internal Medicine suggest that colonoscopy may miss more cancers and polyps than previously thought and reduce colorectal-cancer specific mortality by 60 to 70% instead of the frequently-cited 90% reduction. This story does a good job of describing the current study and placing it in context with other studies. It explains the relevance of these new findings to the consumer – colonoscopy still prevents cancer deaths, however it has its limitations and people need to adjust their expectations of what it can do for them. Furthermore, the study rightly brings focus to the importance of proper preparation. The story could have been improved with a few simple additions. First, although the story mentions several alternatives, such as fecal occult blood testing and virtual colonoscopy, it should have mentioned flexible sigmoidoscopy and described the advantages and disadvantages of the different screening methods. And the story could have given the actual costs of colonoscopy.

The story refers to colonoscopies as being “hugely expensive." It would have been better to tell readers exactly how much they cost. The story adequately quantifies the mortality benefit from colonoscopy screening. But we wish the story had quantified the benefit in absolute rather than relative terms. The story mentions the risk of perforations, missed cancers and "unpleasant" preparation as the risks/side effects of colonoscopy. The story does a good job of describing the current study as well as placing it in context with other studies. The story does not exaggerate the seriousness or prevalence of colon cancer. The story quotes multiple experts. The story does a reasonably good job of describing several alternatives to colonoscopy, such as fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) and virtual colonscopy. The story should have also mentioned flexible sigmoidoscopy and described the advantages and disadvantages of the different screening methods as well as critically evaulating the idea of doing a fecal occult blood test between colonoscopies (rather than just the "one MD likes it, one doesn’t" approach that was taken). Clearly colonoscopy is available. Clearly colonoscopy is not a new idea. Because the story quotes multiple experts, the reader can assume the story does not rely on a press release as the sole source of information.


UK authorities release confiscated cannabis after boy hospitalized.

Explanation: Britain’s interior minister used an exceptional power on Saturday to release medicinal cannabis oil that had been confiscated from an epileptic boy who was later hospitalized suffering from seizures.

Billy Caldwell, 12, had traveled to Canada with his mother, Charlotte, to get the cannabis oil after Billy’s doctor was ordered to stop prescribing it, but when they flew back into London on Monday customs officials confiscated their supplies. The boy was hospitalized on Friday after suffering several seizures. His case has stirred debate on the therapeutic use of cannabis, with politicians from different parties backing the family and campaigners calling for changes to the law. “This morning, I’ve used an exceptional power as Home Secretary to urgently issue a license to allow Billy Caldwell to be treated with cannabis oil,” the minister, Sajid Javid, said in a statement. “My decision is based on the advice of senior clinicians who have made clear this is a medical emergency.”  Charlotte Caldwell, who says Billy was free of seizures when he was using the cannabis oil, made a statement to reporters outside Chelsea and Westminster Hospital, where her son was being treated. She called for the law to be changed. “No other family should have to go through this sort of ordeal, traveling halfway around the world to get medication which should be freely available to our desperately ill children,” she said. “This is a wake-up call for our country. In the 21st century we need to have a more humane policy, not panic measures. I hope the government reflects upon what happened and what they’ve put our family through these last few days.”  The Home Office had previously said that while it was sympathetic to the child’s plight, it had a duty to stop banned substances from entering Britain. Under British law, cannabis is listed as a schedule 1 drug, meaning that it is not recognized as having a therapeutic value. Schedule 1 drugs can be used for research purposes and clinical trials, but only under a Home Office license. The Caldwell family, who normally live in Northern Ireland, have received support from several members of parliament from different political parties, including Dan Poulter of the ruling Conservative Party. Billy Caldwell had been receiving medicinal cannabis oil on prescription by his family doctor for over a year, but supplies ran out after the Home Office ordered the doctor to stop prescribing it.


U.S. President Donald Trump cut funding for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Explanation: What's true: The Trump administration's proposed 2021 budget includes cuts to the CDC's activities related to chronic disease. What's false: Congress hasn't approved the budget, so CDC funding in 2021 remains unclear.

As fears spread about a new coronavirus outbreak growing into a pandemic, so did concerns about the readiness of the United States to deal with the virus. Amid a flurry of rumors and news reports, Snopes readers’ attention turned to statements made by Democratic presidential candidates seeking to unseat U.S. President Donald Trump in 2020. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg claimed that the Trump administration had under-prepared the country to deal with a pandemic, and that his budget cuts had hobbled federal health agencies on the front lines of fighting the coronavirus. Although it’s true that Trump’s fiscal year 2021 budget proposal does propose a funding cut to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), that budget has not been enacted. As The Washington Post explains, those funding cuts target the CDC’s chronic disease activities: The budget request would trim funding for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention by almost 16 percent. HHS officials said they want the CDC to focus on its core mission of preventing and controlling infectious diseases and on other emerging public health issues, such as opioid abuse. Officials propose to take the money that would normally go to fund individual disease prevention activities and funnel it into a single block grant to states. The budget says chronic diseases such as heart disease, stroke and diabetes have common risk factors, and thus consolidating funds “can help magnify the public health impact.” Although the budget reduces overall funding for global health, from $571 million to $532 million in 2021, officials carved out an extra $50 million for global health security, which are measures aimed at disease detection and emergencies. That bump comes at the expense of international HIV/AIDS programs, which is being cut by about $58 million. This is not the first time Trump’s administration has proposed cuts to the CDC budget. However, such proposals do not always amount to funds lost. As The Associated Press reported on Feb. 26, 2020: Trump’s budgets have proposed cuts to public health, only to be overruled by Congress, where there’s strong bipartisan support for agencies such as the CDC and NIH. Instead, financing has increased. Indeed, the money that government disease detectives first tapped to fight the latest outbreak was a congressional fund created for health emergencies. Some public health experts say a bigger concern than White House budgets is the steady erosion of a CDC grant program for state and local public health emergency preparedness — the front lines in detecting and battling new disease. But that decline was set in motion by a congressional budget measure that predates Trump.


Probe into fatal Australia bushfire plane crash complicated by dangers.

Explanation: Australian officials were working on Friday to extricate the bodies of three U.S. firefighters from a plane that crashed in remote bushland, as the area’s “active” bushfire status complicated an investigation into the accident.

Officials said it was still too early to speculate on the cause of the crash of the C-130 Hercules tanker plane on Thursday, killing its entire crew, just after it dumped a large load of retardant on a huge wildfire in a national park. “We are very much into the evidence gathering phase of the investigation,” Greg Hood, chief commissioner of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB), which is leading the investigation, told reporters. “We will not be speculating.”  However, he added that “we have nothing to suggest there was a systemic fault” when asked whether other aircraft in use were safe. Coulson Aviation, the Canadian firm that owned the plane and employed its crew, revealed on Friday that all three were former U.S. military members with extensive flight experience: Captain Ian H. McBeth, 44; First Officer Paul Clyde Hudson, 42; and Flight Engineer Rick DeMorgan Jr., 43. Firefighters in Australia held a minute’s silence and flags on official buildings in New South Wales (NSW) state, where the plane crashed, were flown at half-mast as a mark of respect on Friday. “We will forever be indebted to the enormous contribution and indeed the ultimate sacrifice that’s been paid as a result of these extraordinary individuals doing a remarkable job,” NSW Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said at a farewell near Sydney airport for 32 U.S. firefighters who were returning home after weeks on duty on Australia. ATSB investigators had to be escorted to the one-kilometer-long crash site by firefighters on Friday and police were still in the process of securing the area, Hood said. Little of the plane was intact and potential hazards included aviation fuel and unexploded pressurized canisters, he added. (Graphic: tmsnrt.rs/30O47Eq)  Hood said the ATSB expected to retrieve the plane’s black box cockpit voice recorder, use a drone to 3D map the site, analyze both air traffic control and the plane’s data and review the weather at the time of the crash. “We understand there were several witnesses to the accident,” he said. “We hope that some of the witness statements will actually be able to shed light on the sequence of events following the dropping of the retardant.”   A team from Coulson Aviation was due to arrive in Australia on Saturday, along with the aircraft history and maintenance records. Coulson grounded its other large air tankers immediately after the crash but said on Friday they would be returning to work “in the very near future”. There have been two previous crashes involving C-130 Hercules aircraft while fighting wildfires. In a 2002 accident in California the wings of the aircraft folded upward, breaking off the plane before the fuselage rolled and hit the ground upside down, killing all three crew. In 2012, another C-130 crashed in South Dakota, killing four of the six crew, in an accident that was later determined to be weather-related. “Unfortunately, aircraft are one of the riskiest parts of wildland firefighting,” said Eric Kennedy, a disaster and emergency management expert at York University in Toronto, Canada. Kennedy said there many possible causes for Thursday’s crash, but noted that a well-known risk in the C-130 fleet was metal fatigue-induced wing failure. “Reduced visibility, high turbulence, and low flying can all be contributing risk factors for air tanker crashes,” Kennedy said in emailed comments. The death toll from Australia’s devastating bushfires rose to 33 on Friday after police found a body in a home completely destroyed by fire in New South Wales south coast. The body has not yet been formally identified but it is believed to be of the 59-year-old male occupant, state police said in a statement. The toll includes eight firefighters. The fires have also killed millions of animals, razed thousands of homes and destroyed a land area about one-third the size of Germany since September. Around 250 firefighters from the United States and Canada have undertaken deployments in Australia since the start of the season. A 41-strong U.S. team arrived in Melbourne from the United States on Friday to help in eastern Victoria, the state’s Country Fire Authority said. While fire conditions eased in southeastern Australia on Friday, Sydney was choking on a new smoke haze, blown in by a baking hot wind from the fires burning in the south of the state. In New South Wales, firefighters were tackling 65 blazes with only one at the “watch and act” category, meaning there was no immediate threat. In Victoria state, all 37 fires were rated at the lowest level.


Explanation: This piece asked more tough questions than the story in the LA Times. It also provided readers with more of the hard data than the other story. It broke down a complicated topic and allowed readers to view the evidence from multiple vantage points. Ultimately, though, like the Times piece, it did not take the extra step of giving readers and health policymakers the information they need to assess whether this industry-funded study is an important discovery. Will this truly save millions of lives? Or is it a baby step that is, as this story mentions, more of a “boost for the heart-rhythm device business, whose sales have flattened in recent years”? Those questions are raised but not adequately addressed. Defibrillators are a significant investment, and their success as a clinical intervention depends in part on whether their widespread use will be funded. Both stories discuss the broad scope of the problem — 22 million people with heart failure worldwide — and they raise the issue of the devices’ costs. Stories like this also need to provide readers the context of how much additional benefit individuals and society as a whole would reap from increased use of these expensive devices. Reporters should always be skeptical when a tried and true device for an acutely ill population is repackaged for a broader group of patients.

This story was more precise on costs than the LA Times, saying, “The devices cost up to $35,000, versus the roughly $25,000 cost of a standard defibrillator. Hospital and doctor fees can raise the total cost over $50,000.” Both stories said, vaguely, that “the cost” of the disease every year is $40 billion. This is confusing to readers for two reasons. One, there is no single payer shelling out $40 billion every year to treat heart failure, and so that number is likely not much more than a very good guess. Two, it leads people to believe that the device, at $50,000 per person, may be a bargain if heart failure right now costs $40 billion to treat. We applaud the Journal for at least raising this issue high in the story. The story cites Eric J. Topol, cardiologist and chief academic officer at Scripps Health, saying, the reduced rate of hospitalizations in the study “may actually present a net reduction in costs from a societal standpoint.” That’s a big what if. As explained above, the story analyzes the benefits in both relative and absolute terms. The story says, “But the study showed an increase in the number of device- or implantation-related complications within 30 days of implant: 118 among 888 patients with the new device, compared to 61 of 898 in the standard defibrillator group.” This is beyond what the LA Times did, and we think it is adequate for this score. The story, in most ways, does a better job than the LA Times in evaluating the quality of the evidence. It mainly accomplishes this by providing more data. For example, it says, “Overall in this study, mild-to-moderate-symptom patients had a 25% relative reduction in death or heart-failure hospitalization with the pacemaker-defibrillators, compared with a standard defibrillator. (This was also a 7.1 percentage point “absolute” reduction in death and hospitalization—33.2% compared with 40.3%. )” By giving readers both the relative reduction and the absolute reduction, the story provides a more complete picture of the findings. The one missing element was something we almost never see in a story that the LA Times provided, which is the number needed to treat (NNT). The Times story says “Fourteen patients had to be treated with the $35,000 device to prevent one death.”  Perhaps this is a smart investment. Providing that NNT figure, though, gives people the right perspective on the findings. The story does not engage in disease-mongering. It did make it sound like heart failure exacerbations happen rapidly, with minor changes in diet. This is not supported by the science. But this is a minor quibble. The story does a good job quoting outside sources, but we wish it had done a better job identifying how many of these folks have conflicts. The story did not adequately explain the comparison between the device and alternatives. For example, research has shown that patients with mild heart-failure can undergo training to take better care of themselves and reduce their number of hospitalizations, too. The story makes it clear that the device studied is in clinical trials for the targeted patient population and that a similar device is on the market. “Just over a month ago, Boston Scientific won federal approval to treat mild-symptom heart-failure patients with such devices. Medtronic is seeking such approval, but already sells it for more severe heart failure patients.” We would have liked to have seen some estimate of how many people have these devices implanted every year. The story makes it clear that there are multiple companies pursing a similar device and that one is already on the market. The story does not rely on a news release.


Nicotine Replacement Treatments May Not Work Long-Term

Explanation: This story managed to address nearly all of our criteria in this clearly written piece. We always wish stories had a little more detail about costs, and this one, like the other two reviewed, also missed information about harms. The main drawback to this story, though, was that it relied too heavily on people connected to GlaxoSmithKline, which makes some of the most popular nicotine replacement products. As this story points out, the research on nicotine therapy has been evolving. Because of the strength of so many clinical trials, people assume that patches, gum and other nicotine products work, but this study indicates that under real world conditions, these medicines might actually not show much benefit. The story says, “In the past five years, the declines in adult smoking seen in previous years have stalled”. Jump starting those efforts is crucial giving the impact smoking has on population health. A Cochrane Report  in 2008 reported on trials involving more than 40,000 subjects and concluded that nicotine replacement therapy improves the likelihood of smoking cessation in the short term. Although many people stop smoking, the return to smoking within a year is common. This study looks at the long term benefits over a 5 year period in the real world. Although there are limitations to the study, the conclusions bring the relative value of the hundreds of millions of dollars spent annually into question.

This story discussed costs in the context of overall sales figures. “Deciding how best to get smokers to quit for good is a public health challenge. Sales of the nicotine replacement products have risen, Connolly says. Sales totaled $45 million in 1984, when nicotine gum was introduced. Since 1997, sales have totaled more than $800 million annually.” We wish the story had included some examples of the costs of the individual products compared to cigarettes. The cost of 8 weeks of the nicotine patch is approximately $160-200. The story, like the others, provides no hard numbers for quantifying the benefits, but we thought it did an adequate job explaining what the study found. Unlike the NY Times and LA Times stories, this one provided accurate information about the number of subjects who started and completed the study. All three of the stories have the same problem of not explaining whether ultimately two-thirds of the study participants relapsed or the same one-third relapsed at two different intervals. Nonetheless, we’ll give the story the benefit of the doubt with a satisfactory score on this. None of the stories mentioned the potential harms from taking nicotine, as opposed to quitting cold turkey. Nor did they mention the additional risks associated with continuing to smoke instead of making use of a more successful smoking cessation program that would actually help a smoker quit. As the leading risk factor for early death, smoking should be stopped as quickly and effectively as possible. The story, like the others, did a fair job explaining the study design. This one excelled by explaining a key fact about the study. “Most did not use the products. For instance, at the first interview, 77% did not use them. Those who did use them did so for various time periods. At the first interview, the 33% of those who used the products did so for more than six weeks.” This gets to both a potential problem with how comprehensive the study might be and whether it is a good measure of the products’ effectiveness. This isn’t just a question of whether people were compliant. It’s a question of whether the study could adequately judge the products’ effectiveness given the size of the cohort and varying lengths of time people took the drugs. The New York Times story indicates that the lengths of time did not matter, but none of the stories fully addressed this point. No disease mongering. We give the story a pass here because it includes one independent source with good perspective on both the study’s strengths and drawbacks. Half of the people quoted in the story, though, either work for Glaxo or receive funding from Glaxo. The story gave a good, independent perspective about the fact that the preponderance of evidence is leaning toward a combination therapy of drugs and counseling. We like that this story was very specific on what types of nicotine products were studied. “The participants told whether they had used a patch, gum, inhaler, or spray. They told how long they used the product continuously.” The story says that the new study gives a more “real world” picture of nicotine replacement therapies. The story did not rely on any press release.


Health officials report third vaping-related death in Texas .

Explanation: A woman has become the third person in Texas to die from a lung disease associated with a national outbreak of vaping-related illnesses, according to health officials.

Galveston, Houston, Health, Vaping, Texas

The Galveston County Health District said Monday the woman, who was 30 to 35 years old, died on Dec. 29 at a local hospital. Officials said the woman was a resident of Galveston County, located southeast of Houston, but declined to release any further details about her, citing confidentiality. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has reported nearly 2,600 vaping-related illnesses and at least 55 deaths nationwide. In Texas, officials have reported 236 vaping-related illnesses. The two other vaping deaths in Texas, one announced in October and one announced last week, happened in North Texas.


Liberals" want to change the name of Cracker Barrel to "Caucasian Barrel" because otherwise it's racist.

Explanation: A Change.org petition demanding the restaurant and gift shop chain "Cracker Barrel" be renamed "Caucasian Barrel" began, and remains, satirical.

Politics, caucasian barrel, change.org, cracker barrel

On 8 July 2015, Change.org user Ryan Koch of Des Moines initiated a petition on that site seeking to “Change the name of Cracker Barrel to Caucasian Barrel.” That petition appeared at a time of heightened racial controversy in the United States: in particular, while debate was ongoing about whether display of the Confederate flag should be retired to primarily historical contexts in the wake of a racially-motivated shooting at a Charleston, South Carolina, church on 17 June 2015. The petition facetiously suggested that the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store chain of restaurants and gift shops employed an “offensive slur” in its name: I say all of us European Americans start protesting C****er Barrel. It uses an offensive slur and it is deeply offensive and mocks our long and proud heritage. The name is offensive, their logo stereotypes European Americans as people who sit on chairs and lean against what appears to be a bourbon barrel, claiming we are all a bunch of alcoholics. Sure, they’ll SAY it’s a “cracker” barrel but everyone knows crackers don’t come in barrels, they come in bags and boxes! Change the name C****er Barrel to Caucasian Barrel. After all, white people should have something to be offended by, too! The petition was popular on social media sites, where some users found it clever (and others claimed the joke as their own): I demand that Cracker Barrel immediately change its name to Caucasian Barrel because I am offended — Jamey McMahan (@jameymcmahan75) July 10, 2015 Since @Redskins name is offensive, we should change the @CrackerBarrel name next. #RedskinsNation pic.twitter.com/v9rWHs61YD — David (@dpartenio) July 10, 2015  We need to change the name Cracker Barrel to Caucasian Barrel. I find the word ‘cracker’ highly offensive. — Tyler Lovett (@DontYouLovett) July 10, 2015  The petition suggested the name “Cracker Barrel” was suspect, as “everyone knows crackers don’t come in barrels.” However, an obituary for Cracker Barrel founder Dan Evins published in the Washington Post in 2012 gave the following explanation for the chain’s nomenclature: To distinguish his station from others, he added a small restaurant and gift shop and called the outfit Cracker Barrel — a reference to old-time country stores where people played checkers atop barrels used to carry crackers and other wares. According to NPR, the pejorative term “cracker” was essentially “reclaimed” by poor white people well before the Cracker Barrel chain existed: By the early 1800s, those immigrants to the South started to refer to themselves that way as a badge of honor and a term of endearment. After his tongue-in-cheek petition garnered a good deal of attention, Ryan Koch clarified that it was not meant to be regarded as anything other than a form of satirical expression: I started this satirical petition in lieu [sic] of constant media reports of various groups and organizations constantly wanting to change things throughout the country because they claim they are offended. The petition was meant to shed light on how ridiculous all of the political correctness currently going on in the country is, and how we should focus on real issues such as crime, unemployment, veteran suicide, and corrupt politics rather than cater to everyone who feels they need to be offended. I do not in any way feel the need for, or want Cracker Barrel to change their name. I do not have any ill feelings towards the restaurant chain, and I enjoy dining at their locations frequently. I am not expecting a response from Cracker Barrel in regards to this petition, as they were not involved in the creation of it. Neither Cracker Barrel nor anyone who reads the petition should take its purpose of changing the name seriously. The petition is strictly for satirical and comedic purposes to show how ridiculous political correctness is getting in America. Cracker Barrel themselves said of the issue that: Cracker Barrel is aware of this satirical petition and recognizes that individuals have the right to express their opinion on all types of things. At Cracker Barrel, our mission is Pleasing People. While we respect the opinions of these individuals, our brand is well-known as a home away from home so we have no plans to change our name as it is synonymous with great food and great service. Thousands of people have since signed the “Change the name of Cracker Barrel to Caucasian Barrel” petition, but it doesn’t seem many (if any) considered the missive anything other than a critique of a culture that detractors feel has become too sensitive. On 15 September 2016, a web site covered the ancient nontroversy and revived the rumor that “liberals” sought to change the name of Cracker Barrel, but the petition on which that claim was based remains purely a satirical one.


Development of a wearable medical device for type 2 diabetes

Explanation: This release describes research published in Nature Scientific Reports involving mild electric stimulation (MES) and heat shock via a belt-type medical device to promote visceral fat loss and improve blood glucose in patients with obesity and Type 2 diabetes. The research highlighted is the next chapter in what has been a multi-year effort on the part of the investigators to develop a new approach to the treatment of Type 2 diabetes. The researchers’ previous work in animals and now in a small cohort of people with Type 2 diabetes is not well represented in the release. There’s no clear discussion of how the device works. [Editor’s note: This review was revised to reflect that a funding source was included, but in an easily overlooked sidebar on its EurekAlert! entry. We encourage news release authors to include funders in the text of the release as well so that when the release is picked up and republished, the funding information is included.] Type 2 diabetes has reached epidemic proportions in the United States and in the developed world. Present treatments include lifestyle changes, drugs and for those with morbid obesity, surgery. A new approach to its treatment focusing on heat shock proteins has been in the making for a number of years. The development of a low impact and wearable device that could reduce blood sugar levels and prevent the consequences of long term Type 2 diabetes would be a welcome step forward. Only additional research, however, will demonstrate whether the device described in this release will live up to the expectations of the investigators.

The news release makes no mention of the potential cost of the device. A potential source of comparison is Ab toner and waist trimmer electronic belts of various brands sold at Walmart. They vary from the $21.25 Healthmate Forever AB Muscle Stimulation Multi Belt, to the $149 Ab Transform Pro Abdominal, Arm and Leg Training System. The release provides quantification of the benefits of the device but would have been a lot stronger with a better description of what some of the numbers mean. It states: “The reduction in the visceral fat area was 5.37 sq. cm in the 2 treatment per week group, 14.24 sq. cm in the 4 per week group and 16.45 sq. cm in the 7 per week group. Declines in HbA1c were 0.10%, 0.36%, and 0.65% in the 2, 4, and 7 treatment-per-week groups respectively.” It also stated, “About half of all subjects (52.5%) achieved less than 7.0% HbA1c, which is a treatment goal for diabetes” in reference to the first study. (HbA1c refers to glycated haemoglobin (A1c), which identifies average plasma glucose concentration.) But the release doesn’t explain the relationship between lowering of HbA1c and improvements in heat shock protein, an important underpinning of the research. The information detailed in the graphic, while related to the basic research, is confusing since it relates to the animal and not the human research described in the release. A statement from the lead investigator appears premature. Dr. Kondo commented: “Even in patients who have difficulty exercising, such as those who are overweight, elderly, or have some form of disability, this device can be expected to provide acceptable treatment in addition to conventional diabetic medical care.” The belt device is claimed to be well tolerated, but no details on potential harms are given. The release notes: “The team found that a suitable combination of mild electrical stimulation (MES) with heat shock (HS) activated HSP72 more efficiently.” What is the electrical stimulus and how uncomfortable is it? Exactly what is a delivery of heat shock? What temperature is used? And finally is the device battery operated or is it a plug in? All of these unanswered questions seem relevant to understanding the device. The release describes the study methods — the number of participants, the length of treatment, and the results. But the release would have been stronger with a discussion of the study limitations. According to the published study, limitations included its “relatively small sample size and no setting of appropriate placebo control because this apparatus simultaneously delivers heat and mild electric stimulation, both of which are easily recognized by subjects.” No disease mongering here. The release provides a good description of the mechanics of Type 2 diabetes. The release might have been improved with a brief discussion of the prevalence of the disease. The news release notes that the study was funded by the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research. The journal article in Scientific Reports also acknowledges the belt device was provided by the Tsuchiya Rubber Co., Ltd. (Kumamoto, Japan). The release mentions exercise and a drug commonly prescribed in Japan to treat Type 2 diabetes, and notes that using the device “One can expect the effects to be similar to exercise therapy.” It also quotes a researcher who suggests the belt could be an add-on to conventional diabetic medical care. But the release provides no indication of how the device actually compares with these existing treatments in terms of outcomes. Even though the researchers advanced from theoretical thinking to animal and human trials there is no discussion of when the device might become available to patients. Heat shock protein has been explored as an important factor in Type 2 diabetes by other researchers. The researchers have taken the basic research and moved it one step closer to patients. The news release doesn’t employ sensational language.


Massachusetts Senate to debate prescription drug price bill.

Explanation: The Massachusetts Senate is set to debate legislation that Democratic leaders say will address the soaring cost of prescription drugs.

Medication, Health, General News, Legislation, Charlie Baker, Prescription drugs, Massachusetts, Bills

This legislation would create a process to help identify drug price thresholds that supporters of the bill say pose a public health risk. The bill would also immediately address the price of insulin by eliminating deductibles and coinsurance for insulin and capping co-pays at $25 per month. It would also require pharmacists to notify patients if the retail cost of a medication is less than a co-pay or deductible. The Senate is scheduled to debate the bill this week. The release of the Senate plan comes just weeks after Republican Gov. Charlie Baker unveiled a health care bill also designed to stem the growth of costly prescription drugs.


A video shows a sick, possibly starving polar bear on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic.

Explanation: We don’t have starving polar bears, we don’t have polar bears facing hard times because of ice. As long as we have four seasons — spring, summer, fall, winter — nothing’s going to change.

Critter Country, animals, arctic, canada

In December 2017, a viral video left millions of people saddened and horrified by the sight of an emaciated polar bear forced to scavenge in trash cans for food on Canada’s Baffin Island. Photographer Paul Nicklen posted the video on Facebook, garnering almost 30,000 shares within a week, as well as the attention of the national news media. Nicklen, who is also co-founder of the environmental nonprofit group SeaLegacy, wrote: My entire Sea Legacy team was pushing through their tears and emotions while documenting this dying polar bear. It’s a soul-crushing scene that still haunts me, but I know we need to share both the beautiful and the heartbreaking if we are going to break down the walls of apathy. This is what starvation looks like. The muscles atrophy. No energy. It’s a slow, painful death. When scientists say polar bears will be extinct in the next 100 years, I think of the global population of 25,000 bears dying in this manner. There is no band aid solution. There was no saving this individual bear. People think that we can put platforms in the ocean or we can feed the odd starving bear. The simple truth is this — if the Earth continues to warm, we will lose bears and entire polar ecosystems. The video was subsequently shared by National Geographic, which reported: Video shows the polar bear clinging to life, its white hair limply covering its thin, bony frame. One of the bear’s back legs drags behind it as it walks, likely due to muscle atrophy. Looking for food, the polar bear slowly rummages through a nearby trashcan used seasonally by Inuit fishers. It finds nothing and resignedly collapses back down onto the ground. The footage is real. Nicklen says it was captured “a few months” before December 2017, at an abandoned Inuit camp on Baffin Island, the enormous land mass southwest of Greenland in the Canadian Arctic. There appears to be no doubt that the animal is suffering from starvation, as National Geographic wrote: The bear’s thin frame and protruding bones are clear indicators of this, and its atrophied muscles suggest it’s been starving for an extended period of time. However, the causes of the bear’s condition were a little bit more complicated. Polar bears live only in the Arctic and eat only meat, their main source being seals. They rely on Arctic seawater to freeze into ice, where they can gain access to seals. But climate change means that these Arctic ice sheets are reducing in size, lowering the number of seals available to polar bears and ultimately, causing them to starve. The risk is higher in places like Baffin Island, where polar bears depend on seasonal ice. According to the Smithsonian Institution, the issue is likely about to become dramatically worse: Recent predictions suggest that warming seawater and air will melt 20 percent or more of the Arctic’s ice cover in the next 40 years — a scary statistic for the many species in the Arctic that rely on seasonal ice cover for vital activities such as breeding and eating. However, Dr. Steven Amstrup, chief scientist for the non-profit Polar Bears International, said in a blog post that climate change may not have been the direct or sole contributing factor in this particular animal’s demise:  Polar bears have few natural predators. Although they normally live a long time, they are not immortal. All eventually die and most do so because they have not been able to capture enough food. This means that malnutrition is a major cause of death for polar bears. Young bears that have not learned well enough how to catch seals, old feeble bears, and bears that have injured themselves, all can succumb to malnutrition under some circumstances. The starvation leading to the event shown in this video could be related to old age, injury (like a broken jaw or teeth that prevent it from catching food), disease, or other factors limiting its success in obtaining prey. However, Amstrup points out that the continued diminishment of sea ice that is expected will make it harder for polar bears in this region to find seals to eat, and therefore make starvation much more likely for sick, lame, very young or very old animals who might otherwise have survived: The problem is that an ever-warmer future means polar bears will have less and less access to their seal prey, so the rate at which bears die from malnutrition/starvation will increase. So, regardless of the proximate cause of this bear’s condition, this heart-wrenching footage provides us with a warning about the future. Hunters from Inuit communities on Baffin Island were also skeptical over whether to link the bear’s condition with climate change; Eric Ootoovak, the vice-chair of the Mittimatalik Hunters and Trappers Organization, said of the bear: You can really tell he’s sick. He’s not starving. If he was starving, he’d be able to move a bit more than that. Nick Arnalukjuak, who leads a similar group in the island community of Nunavut, called it part of a “normal cycle” for some bears to suffer injury or illness, adding: