# Final locked standard-data results

All 260 predeclared runs completed: thirteen methods, ten paired fresh seeds, and two datasets. Each stream has five two-class arrivals with a shared ten-way output and no task ID at inference. The source lock, official-test predictions, pre/post-acquisition checkpoints, and all refusal records are retained.

Ordinary baselines fit all 54,000 nonvalidation images; certificate methods spend 6,000 of that observed-data allowance on independent calibration and fit 48,000. The center ablation uses the same 48,000 fitting images. All continual learners obey a 6 MiB persistent payload budget; the explicitly noncontinual joint reference retains all seen data. These are CPU studies on MNIST/Fashion-MNIST, not large-scale validation or a state-of-the-art claim.

## MNIST

Accuracy is final official-test micro accuracy. Intervals are descriptive Student-t 95% intervals across ten seed replications.

| Method | Mean accuracy | SD | 95% interval | Mean protected classes |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| SGD | 19.312% | 1.440 pp | [18.282, 20.342]% | 0.0 |
| ER | 89.965% | 1.156 pp | [89.138, 90.792]% | 0.0 |
| DER++ | 92.028% | 0.977 pp | [91.329, 92.727]% | 0.0 |
| ER-ACE, 2 epochs | 92.669% | 1.623 pp | [91.508, 93.830]% | 0.0 |
| ER-ACE, 4 epochs | 95.155% | 0.380 pp | [94.883, 95.427]% | 0.0 |
| Cumulative RFF ridge | 89.443% | 0.296 pp | [89.231, 89.655]% | 0.0 |
| Global prototypes | 96.476% | 0.121 pp | [96.389, 96.563]% | 0.0 |
| Scalar center, risk 0.1 | 19.932% | 0.892 pp | [19.294, 20.570]% | 10.0 |
| Center, controller disabled | 81.177% | 1.430 pp | [80.154, 82.200]% | 0.0 |
| Immutable regions, risk 0.1 | 36.609% | 6.796 pp | [31.747, 41.471]% | 2.6 |
| Fresh renewal, risk 0.2 | 92.720% | 7.874 pp | [87.087, 98.353]% | 9.6 |
| Fresh renewal, risk 0.1 | 46.548% | 22.557 pp | [30.412, 62.684]% | 4.6 |
| Stagewise joint reference | 93.119% | 0.393 pp | [92.838, 93.400]% | 0.0 |

Protected-class counts are certificate-admission counts, not the number of accurately learned classes. The scalar-center certificate concerns preservation of acquired center predictions, including incorrect ones. Ordinary controls have no certificate and are assigned zero in this column.

| Certificate policy | Difference from ER-ACE, 2 epochs | Difference from global prototypes |
|---|---:|---:|
| Scalar center, risk 0.1 | -72.737 pp [-73.750, -71.724] | -76.544 pp [-77.172, -75.916] |
| Immutable regions, risk 0.1 | -56.060 pp [-61.240, -50.880] | -59.867 pp [-64.768, -54.966] |
| Fresh renewal, risk 0.2 | +0.051 pp [-5.789, +5.891] | -3.756 pp [-9.358, +1.846] |
| Fresh renewal, risk 0.1 | -46.121 pp [-62.152, -30.090] | -49.928 pp [-66.057, -33.799] |

Intervals use per-seed paired differences; they are not multiplicity-adjusted tests of superiority. The four-epoch ER-ACE control is explicitly compute-relaxed.

| Method | Mean fitting time, s | Mean calibration time, s | Serial batch-one latency, ms | Mean peak persistent payload, MiB |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| SGD | 1.219 | 0.000 | 0.051 | 0.452 |
| ER | 2.694 | 0.000 | 0.056 | 5.997 |
| DER++ | 4.050 | 0.000 | 0.051 | 5.997 |
| ER-ACE, 2 epochs | 2.904 | 0.000 | 0.073 | 5.997 |
| ER-ACE, 4 epochs | 5.960 | 0.000 | 0.072 | 5.997 |
| Cumulative RFF ridge | 2.517 | 0.000 | 0.128 | 5.139 |
| Global prototypes | 7.130 | 0.000 | 4.996 | 3.846 |
| Scalar center, risk 0.1 | 4.590 | 0.313 | 0.249 | 3.961 |
| Center, controller disabled | 5.547 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 4.466 |
| Immutable regions, risk 0.1 | 9.607 | 0.217 | 0.477 | 1.461 |
| Fresh renewal, risk 0.2 | 7.085 | 0.348 | 4.367 | 5.975 |
| Fresh renewal, risk 0.1 | 7.063 | 0.339 | 0.461 | 5.975 |
| Stagewise joint reference | 3.838 | 0.000 | 0.051 | 41.651 |

Fitting/calibration wall times may reflect four-worker contention. Serial latency was measured after training workers exited, using fixed final checkpoints, three warmups, and twenty-one trials. Persistent payload excludes transient buffers and Python overhead; per-process peak RSS is separately retained. Joint-reference payload includes its retained raw data and is exempt from the continual-memory budget.

Fresh renewal, risk 0.2 accepted 48/50 proposed checkpoints, including the final ten-class proposal in 8/10 runs. Its own unvalidated full-proposal final accuracy averaged 96.428%; this diagnostic uses identical fitted prototypes and isolates the acceptance controller from the ordinary baseline's additional fitting data.

Fresh renewal, risk 0.1 accepted 19/50 proposed checkpoints, including the final ten-class proposal in 0/10 runs. Its own unvalidated full-proposal final accuracy averaged 96.428%; this diagnostic uses identical fitted prototypes and isolates the acceptance controller from the ordinary baseline's additional fitting data.

## FASHION MNIST

Accuracy is final official-test micro accuracy. Intervals are descriptive Student-t 95% intervals across ten seed replications.

| Method | Mean accuracy | SD | 95% interval | Mean protected classes |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| SGD | 18.983% | 3.061 pp | [16.793, 21.173]% | 0.0 |
| ER | 78.287% | 1.428 pp | [77.266, 79.308]% | 0.0 |
| DER++ | 78.628% | 1.867 pp | [77.292, 79.964]% | 0.0 |
| ER-ACE, 2 epochs | 80.012% | 1.822 pp | [78.709, 81.315]% | 0.0 |
| ER-ACE, 4 epochs | 82.597% | 1.046 pp | [81.849, 83.345]% | 0.0 |
| Cumulative RFF ridge | 80.123% | 0.209 pp | [79.973, 80.273]% | 0.0 |
| Global prototypes | 84.635% | 0.177 pp | [84.508, 84.762]% | 0.0 |
| Scalar center, risk 0.1 | 19.455% | 0.981 pp | [18.753, 20.157]% | 10.0 |
| Center, controller disabled | 66.187% | 2.109 pp | [64.678, 67.696]% | 0.0 |
| Immutable regions, risk 0.1 | 29.297% | 5.721 pp | [25.204, 33.390]% | 2.2 |
| Fresh renewal, risk 0.2 | 35.503% | 21.542 pp | [20.093, 50.913]% | 3.6 |
| Fresh renewal, risk 0.1 | 17.918% | 4.177 pp | [14.930, 20.906]% | 1.6 |
| Stagewise joint reference | 81.145% | 1.906 pp | [79.782, 82.508]% | 0.0 |

Protected-class counts are certificate-admission counts, not the number of accurately learned classes. The scalar-center certificate concerns preservation of acquired center predictions, including incorrect ones. Ordinary controls have no certificate and are assigned zero in this column.

| Certificate policy | Difference from ER-ACE, 2 epochs | Difference from global prototypes |
|---|---:|---:|
| Scalar center, risk 0.1 | -60.557 pp [-62.081, -59.033] | -65.180 pp [-65.917, -64.443] |
| Immutable regions, risk 0.1 | -50.715 pp [-54.622, -46.808] | -55.338 pp [-59.394, -51.282] |
| Fresh renewal, risk 0.2 | -44.509 pp [-60.730, -28.288] | -49.132 pp [-64.588, -33.676] |
| Fresh renewal, risk 0.1 | -62.094 pp [-65.440, -58.748] | -66.717 pp [-69.771, -63.663] |

Intervals use per-seed paired differences; they are not multiplicity-adjusted tests of superiority. The four-epoch ER-ACE control is explicitly compute-relaxed.

| Method | Mean fitting time, s | Mean calibration time, s | Serial batch-one latency, ms | Mean peak persistent payload, MiB |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| SGD | 1.181 | 0.000 | 0.055 | 0.452 |
| ER | 2.719 | 0.000 | 0.052 | 5.997 |
| DER++ | 4.134 | 0.000 | 0.055 | 5.997 |
| ER-ACE, 2 epochs | 3.102 | 0.000 | 0.086 | 5.997 |
| ER-ACE, 4 epochs | 5.873 | 0.000 | 0.085 | 5.997 |
| Cumulative RFF ridge | 2.578 | 0.000 | 0.123 | 5.139 |
| Global prototypes | 7.093 | 0.000 | 5.103 | 3.846 |
| Scalar center, risk 0.1 | 4.436 | 0.321 | 0.272 | 3.961 |
| Center, controller disabled | 5.246 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 4.466 |
| Immutable regions, risk 0.1 | 9.106 | 0.214 | 0.437 | 1.307 |
| Fresh renewal, risk 0.2 | 6.775 | 0.350 | 0.383 | 5.975 |
| Fresh renewal, risk 0.1 | 6.825 | 0.346 | 0.209 | 5.975 |
| Stagewise joint reference | 3.924 | 0.000 | 0.051 | 41.651 |

Fitting/calibration wall times may reflect four-worker contention. Serial latency was measured after training workers exited, using fixed final checkpoints, three warmups, and twenty-one trials. Persistent payload excludes transient buffers and Python overhead; per-process peak RSS is separately retained. Joint-reference payload includes its retained raw data and is exempt from the continual-memory budget.

Fresh renewal, risk 0.2 accepted 18/50 proposed checkpoints, including the final ten-class proposal in 0/10 runs. Its own unvalidated full-proposal final accuracy averaged 84.530%; this diagnostic uses identical fitted prototypes and isolates the acceptance controller from the ordinary baseline's additional fitting data.

Fresh renewal, risk 0.1 accepted 8/50 proposed checkpoints, including the final ten-class proposal in 0/10 runs. Its own unvalidated full-proposal final accuracy averaged 84.530%; this diagnostic uses identical fitted prototypes and isolates the acceptance controller from the ordinary baseline's additional fitting data.

## Scope of the evidence

The guarantee allocation is 0.05 per seeded run and per policy across all its paid class tests, including failed attempts. It is not a joint 95% assertion across all datasets, seeds, and policies. Renewal certifies each accepted checkpoint under its independence/distribution assumptions; it does not certify unaccepted proposals, their fitting iterates, or ever-error on a fixed old example. Unused acquired calibration archives and all retained proposed prototypes are included in the memory count.

Full class/task matrices, macro accuracy, signed forgetting, backward/forward transfer, stagewise joint intransigence, ECE15, source IDs, confidence ledgers, memory payload, and arithmetic component counts are in the JSON/NPZ captures. Arithmetic counts are component estimates rather than total hardware FLOPs. NLL/Brier are a separately hashed post-lock descriptive analysis of saved predictions, without temperature fitting or model-selection feedback.

No final outcomes changed the source, method list, learning rates, feature maps, prototype counts, risk settings, calibration allocation, or seed list. All earlier development failures remain preserved.