"""Exact OU innovation variance calibration and bounded-drift tube budgets. Calibration assumes known kappa, independent exact-state observations, Gaussian innovations, and fixed (not data-selected) pairs. It is not valid for censored, noisy-camera, or locally stopped trajectories without a new observation likelihood. Units: time seconds, distance arbitrary consistent. """ import numpy as np from scipy.stats import chi2 def _finite(*values): if not all(np.isfinite(v) for v in values): raise ValueError("all scalar parameters must be finite") def diffusion_interval(innovations, kappa, dt, alpha=0.05): """Two-sided (1-alpha) CI for d in dZ=-k Z dt+sqrt(2d)dB. Each flattened value must be an independent scalar innovation with zero known mean. Degrees of freedom are not adjusted for fitted kappa. """ _finite(kappa, dt, alpha) values = np.asarray(innovations, dtype=float).ravel() if values.size < 1 or not np.isfinite(values).all(): raise ValueError("finite nonempty innovations required") if kappa <= 0 or dt <= 0 or not 0 < alpha < 1: raise ValueError("kappa, dt > 0 and alpha in (0,1) required") scale = -np.expm1(-2 * kappa * dt) / kappa ss = float(values @ values) df = values.size return (ss / (scale * chi2.ppf(1-alpha/2, df)), ss / (scale * chi2.ppf(alpha/2, df))) def diffusion_upper(innovations, kappa, dt, alpha=0.05): """Exact one-sided variance bound; Bonferroni handles dependent pairs.""" _finite(kappa, dt, alpha) values = np.asarray(innovations, dtype=float).ravel() if values.size < 1 or not np.isfinite(values).all(): raise ValueError("finite nonempty innovations required") if kappa <= 0 or dt <= 0 or not 0 < alpha < 1: raise ValueError("kappa, dt > 0 and alpha in (0,1) required") scale = -np.expm1(-2*kappa*dt) / kappa return float(values @ values) / (scale * chi2.ppf(alpha, values.size)) def ou_innovations(positions, kappa, dt): """Residuals from equally spaced exact observations of a global OU.""" _finite(kappa, dt) z = np.asarray(positions, dtype=float) if z.ndim < 1 or z.shape[0] < 2 or kappa <= 0 or dt <= 0 or not np.isfinite(z).all(): raise ValueError("at least two times and positive kappa,dt required") return z[1:] - np.exp(-kappa*dt)*z[:-1] def drift_tube(kappa, horizon, initial_error, drift_bound): """Maximum scalar convolution bound on [0,T], with nonnegative inputs.""" _finite(kappa, horizon, initial_error, drift_bound) if kappa <= 0 or horizon < 0 or initial_error < 0 or drift_bound < 0: raise ValueError("invalid tube parameters") end = initial_error*np.exp(-kappa*horizon) end += drift_bound/kappa * (-np.expm1(-kappa*horizon)) return max(float(initial_error), float(end)) def robust_margin(clearance, kappa, horizon, initial_error=0, drift_bound=0): """Remaining OU margin; nonpositive output rejects the certificate.""" _finite(clearance, kappa, horizon, initial_error, drift_bound) if clearance <= 0: raise ValueError("clearance must be positive") return clearance-drift_tube(kappa, horizon, initial_error, drift_bound) def girsanov_event_allowance(kappa, d, horizon, drift_bound): """Pinsker event allowance under a common full-rank isotropic diffusion. kappa is unused in the formula but retained for common calling convention. Bound: KL <= b^2 T/(4d), TV <= b sqrt(T/(8d)). This is a same-diffusion result, not a bound for diffusion-coefficient mismatch. """ _finite(kappa, d, horizon, drift_bound) if kappa <= 0 or d <= 0 or horizon < 0 or drift_bound < 0: raise ValueError("invalid parameters") return min(1.0, drift_bound*np.sqrt(horizon/(8*d)))