[ { "id": "finance_en_predictive_1", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate COMCAST CORP (CMCSA)'s four-year total-revenue YoY growth path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001166691-21-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001166691-22-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001166691-23-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001166691-24-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001166691-25-000011", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "1.78 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_2", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate DEVON ENERGY CORP/DE (DVN)'s total-revenue YoY growth for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-006239", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-22-005321", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-002852", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-021781", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-022844", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "5.15 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_3", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate GameStop Corp. (GME)'s four-year gross margin path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001326380-21-000032", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001326380-22-000021", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001326380-23-000019", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001326380-24-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-014731", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "0.73 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_4", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate WELLTOWER INC. (WELL)'s gross margin for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000766704-21-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000766704-22-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000766704-23-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000766704-24-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000766704-25-000009", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "2.9 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_5", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC)'s four-year operating margin path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000702165-21-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000702165-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000702165-23-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000702165-24-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000702165-25-000008", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "10.13 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_6", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate SM Energy Co (SM)'s operating margin for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000893538-21-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000893538-22-000020", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000893538-23-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000893538-24-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000893538-25-000008", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-1.59 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_7", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate ALTRIA GROUP, INC. (MO)'s four-year net-profit YoY growth path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000764180-21-000037", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000764180-22-000019", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000764180-23-000020", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000764180-24-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000764180-25-000019", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "38.55 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_8", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate American National Group Inc. (ANG-PD)'s net-profit YoY growth for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001039828-21-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001039828-22-000022", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001039828-23-000032", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001039828-24-000020", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001039828-25-000010", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "246.27 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_9", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate Eaton Corp plc (ETN)'s four-year operating-cash-flow YoY growth path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001551182-21-000022", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001551182-22-000004", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001551182-23-000004", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001551182-24-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001551182-25-000006", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "19.4 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_10", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate CUMMINS INC (CMI)'s operating-cash-flow YoY growth for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000026172-21-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000026172-22-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000026172-23-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000026172-24-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000026172-25-000007", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-62.51 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_11", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR)'s four-year operating-cash-flow margin path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001618756-21-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001618756-22-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001618756-23-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001618756-24-000020", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001618756-25-000087", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-0.96 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_12", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate MORGAN STANLEY (MS)'s operating-cash-flow margin for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000895421-21-000286", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000895421-22-000400", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000895421-23-000284", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000895421-24-000300", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000895421-25-000304", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "64.14 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_13", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate CVS HEALTH Corp (CVS)'s four-year operating-cash-flow conversion path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000064803-21-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000064803-22-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000064803-23-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000064803-24-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000064803-25-000007", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "197.38 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_14", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate QUANTA SERVICES, INC. (PWR)'s operating-cash-flow conversion for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001050915-21-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001050915-22-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001050915-23-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001050915-24-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001050915-25-000005", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "230.01 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_15", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate QXO Insulation, LLC (BLD)'s four-year accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001558370-21-001466", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-22-001590", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-23-001903", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-24-001999", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-25-001495", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-1.28 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_16", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LTD (TEVA)'s accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001193125-21-036239", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-22-032667", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-23-031250", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-24-031005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-25-020826", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-3.02 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_17", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review ABBOTT LABORATORIES (ABT)'s four-year inventory-to-revenue ratio record, then assess whether the FY2023 Risk Factors discussion of demand supports continuation in FY2024. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001104659-21-025751", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001104659-22-025141", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-23-004026", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-005348", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-007110", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-1.62 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_18", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine SYSCO CORP (SYY)'s FY2020-FY2023 liabilities-to-assets ratio path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about inflation to forecast FY2024. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000096021-20-000100", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000096021-21-000093", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000096021-22-000151", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000096021-23-000117", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000096021-24-000128", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-1.62 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_19", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE)'s historical cash-to-current-liabilities ratio and the capacity signal in MD&A? Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001571949-21-000003", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001571949-22-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001571949-23-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001571949-24-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001571949-25-000003", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-0.12 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_20", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the working capital signal from KB HOME (KBH)'s FY2023 Risk Factors, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 net-fixed-assets YoY growth, and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000795266-21-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000795266-22-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000795266-23-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000795266-24-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000795266-25-000014", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "2.32 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_21", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN)'s FY2020-FY2023 management-expense ratio path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about competition to forecast FY2024. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000018926-21-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000018926-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000018926-23-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000018926-24-000016", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000018926-25-000010", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "0.7 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_22", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by WATSCO INC (WSO)'s historical total-assets YoY growth and the margin signal in MD&A? Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001193125-21-060167", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-22-054394", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-23-048758", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-24-044609", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-25-041730", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "20.12 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_23", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Analyze Ventas, Inc. (VTR)'s total-equity YoY growth and total-revenue YoY growth through FY2023, then use the demand discussion in Risk Factors to test continuation versus reversal in FY2024. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000740260-21-000048", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000740260-22-000057", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000740260-23-000070", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000740260-24-000067", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000740260-25-000052", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "13.47 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_24", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "With the research cutoff at the FY2023 filing, do WEC ENERGY GROUP, INC. (WEC)'s basic-EPS YoY growth and operating margin reinforce or contradict each other, and what does that imply for FY2024? Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000107815-21-000079", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000107815-22-000116", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000107815-23-000100", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000107815-24-000095", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000107815-25-000103", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "14.45 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_25", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Analyze MURPHY OIL CORP (MUR)'s return on assets and net-profit YoY growth through FY2023, then use the capacity discussion in MD&A to test continuation versus reversal in FY2024. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000717423-21-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000717423-22-000019", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000717423-23-000015", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000717423-24-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000717423-25-000006", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-2.4 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_26", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate Energy Transfer LP (ET)'s four-year operating-revenue YoY growth path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001276187-21-000034", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001276187-22-000020", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001276187-23-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001276187-24-000024", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001276187-25-000018", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "5.2 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_27", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate AES CORP (AES)'s operating-revenue YoY growth for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000874761-21-000015", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000874761-22-000022", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000874761-23-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000874761-24-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000874761-25-000013", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-3.08 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_28", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate HUMANA INC (HUM)'s four-year operating-profit YoY growth path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000049071-21-000039", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000049071-22-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000049071-23-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000049071-24-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000049071-25-000007", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-36.16 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_29", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate FORD MOTOR CO (F)'s operating-profit YoY growth for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000037996-21-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000037996-22-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000037996-23-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000037996-24-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000037996-25-000013", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-4.38 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_30", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate JABIL INC (JBL)'s four-year accounts-payable-to-revenue ratio path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001193125-20-274411", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-21-305429", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-22-268383", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-23-259599", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-043960", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "5.07 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_31", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC. (WMB)'s accounts-payable-to-revenue ratio for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000107263-21-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000107263-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000107263-23-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000107263-24-000019", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000107263-25-000031", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "2.71 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_32", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)'s four-year total-revenue YoY growth path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000003570-21-000039", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000003570-22-000024", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000003570-23-000042", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000003570-24-000040", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000003570-25-000033", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-23 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_33", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate DELTA AIR LINES, INC. (DAL)'s total-revenue YoY growth for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000027904-21-000003", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000027904-22-000003", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000027904-23-000003", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000027904-24-000003", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000027904-25-000004", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "6.19 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_34", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate Camping World Holdings, Inc. (CWH)'s four-year gross margin path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001558370-21-002004", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-22-001817", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-23-001813", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-24-001703", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-25-001939", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-0.25 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_35", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate WILLIAMS SONOMA INC (WSM)'s gross margin for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001193125-21-100319", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-22-007494", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-23-009175", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-012221", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-015037", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-1.65 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_36", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO (LUV)'s four-year operating margin path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000092380-21-000033", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000092380-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000092380-23-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000092380-24-000027", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000092380-25-000024", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "0.31 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_37", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate UNION PACIFIC CORP (UNP)'s operating margin for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000100885-21-000068", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-22-002494", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-23-002959", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-24-003599", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000100885-25-000042", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "2.4 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_38", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC/RI (CFG)'s four-year net-profit YoY growth path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000759944-21-000034", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000759944-22-000025", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000759944-23-000029", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000759944-24-000039", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000759944-25-000013", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-6.16 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_39", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate KEYCORP /NEW/ (KEY)'s net-profit YoY growth for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000091576-21-000044", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000091576-22-000029", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000091576-23-000026", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000091576-24-000040", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000091576-25-000038", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-116.65 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_40", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP (TFC)'s four-year operating-cash-flow YoY growth path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000092230-21-000032", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000092230-22-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000092230-23-000034", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000092230-24-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000092230-25-000020", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-74.93 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_41", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP)'s operating-cash-flow YoY growth for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000004962-21-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000004962-22-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000004962-23-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000004962-24-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000004962-25-000016", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-24.3 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_42", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the working capital signal from ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK)'s FY2023 Risk Factors, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 operating-cash-flow margin, and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000766421-21-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000766421-22-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000766421-23-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000766421-24-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000766421-25-000009", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "2.4 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_43", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine COPT DEFENSE PROPERTIES (CDP)'s FY2020-FY2023 accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about competition to forecast FY2024. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000860546-21-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000860546-22-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000860546-23-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000860546-24-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000860546-25-000008", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-25.43 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_44", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review Bausch Health Companies Inc. (BHC)'s four-year inventory-to-revenue ratio record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of margin supports continuation in FY2024. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000885590-21-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000885590-22-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000885590-23-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000885590-24-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000885590-25-000007", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-1.06 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_45", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the demand signal from Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE)'s FY2023 Risk Factors, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 current ratio, and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in x.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001528396-20-000053", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001528396-21-000095", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001528396-22-000106", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001528396-23-000089", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001528396-24-000105", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "1.55 x" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_46", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "With the research cutoff at the FY2023 filing, do Medtronic plc (MDT)'s cash-to-current-liabilities ratio and basic-EPS YoY growth reinforce or contradict each other, and what does that imply for FY2024? Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001613103-20-000021", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001613103-21-000027", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001613103-22-000023", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001613103-23-000040", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001613103-24-000072", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-12.92 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_47", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate FLUOR CORP (FLR)'s four-year net-fixed-assets YoY growth path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001628280-21-003360", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-22-003231", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-23-004139", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-005451", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-005924", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "7.86 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_48", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate M/I HOMES, INC. (MHO)'s net-fixed-assets YoY growth for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000799292-21-000032", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000799292-22-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000799292-23-000037", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000799292-24-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000799292-25-000018", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-1.16 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_49", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate FuboTV Inc. (FUBO)'s four-year R&D expense ratio path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001493152-21-006813", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001493152-22-005658", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-23-005135", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-008632", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-009420", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-0.02 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_50", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate FAIR ISAAC CORP (FICO)'s R&D expense ratio for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000814547-20-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000814547-21-000019", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000814547-22-000016", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000814547-23-000022", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-045719", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-0.56 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_51", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Set the research date immediately after the FY2023 filing: calculate Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR)'s four-year management-expense ratio path and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001628280-21-003458", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-22-004274", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-23-005628", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-008044", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-009060", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-5.05 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_52", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Retrieve the fields needed to calculate MDU RESOURCES GROUP INC (MDU)'s management-expense ratio for FY2020-FY2023 and use the resulting series to assess the FY2024 change. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000067716-21-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000067716-22-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000067716-23-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000067716-24-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000067716-25-000016", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-40.21 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_53", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/ (AMT)'s historical total-equity YoY growth and the margin signal in MD&A? Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001053507-21-000026", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001053507-22-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001053507-23-000023", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001053507-24-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001053507-25-000025", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-11.2 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_54", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)'s four-year total-liabilities YoY growth record, then assess whether the FY2023 Risk Factors discussion of demand supports continuation in FY2024. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001585689-21-000016", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001585689-22-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001585689-23-000036", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001585689-24-000027", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001585689-25-000008", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "13.88 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_55", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the pricing signal from Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (FNF)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 basic-EPS YoY growth, and judge the FY2024 direction. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001331875-21-000015", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001331875-22-000024", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001331875-23-000023", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001331875-24-000019", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001331875-25-000013", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "145.55 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_56", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by DOMINION ENERGY, INC (D)'s historical operating-revenue YoY growth and the capacity signal in MD&A? Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-008442", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-22-006589", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-003287", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-019110", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-028387", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "0.46 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_57", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Analyze Aon plc (AON)'s operating-profit YoY growth and operating-cash-flow margin through FY2023, then use the working capital discussion in Risk Factors to test continuation versus reversal in FY2024. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001628280-21-002574", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-22-003180", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-23-004087", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-005392", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-006093", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "1.32 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_58", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "With the research cutoff at the FY2023 filing, do MPLX LP (MPLX)'s total-revenue YoY growth and accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio reinforce or contradict each other, and what does that imply for FY2024? Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001552000-21-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001552000-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001552000-23-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001552000-24-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001552000-25-000012", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "5.78 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_59", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Analyze CORNING INC /NY (GLW)'s gross margin and inventory-to-revenue ratio through FY2023, then use the margin discussion in MD&A to test continuation versus reversal in FY2024. Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001562762-21-000023", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-22-003247", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-23-003123", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-24-003735", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-005347", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "1.37 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_60", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "With the research cutoff at the FY2023 filing, do WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORP (WBS)'s net-profit YoY growth and liabilities-to-assets ratio reinforce or contradict each other, and what does that imply for FY2024? Fill in the FY2024 actual change, rounded to two decimals, in %.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data and trends to return the requested numeric forecast value.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000801337-21-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000801337-22-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000801337-23-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000801337-24-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000801337-25-000004", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "-11.42 %" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_61", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only BECTON DICKINSON & CO (BDX)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace total-revenue YoY growth and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000010795-20-000055", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000010795-21-000091", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-22-030686", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000010795-23-000098", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000010795-24-000084", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "C" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_62", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP (LVS)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical total-revenue YoY growth values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001300514-21-000033", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001300514-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001300514-23-000021", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001300514-24-000048", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001300514-25-000040", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "C" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_63", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC (MLM)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace gross margin and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-006959", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-22-005965", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-004361", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-019275", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-024770", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_64", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical gross margin values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000096223-21-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000096223-22-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000096223-23-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000096223-24-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-002833", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_65", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only AT&T INC. (T)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace operating margin and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000732717-21-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000732717-22-000015", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000732717-23-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000732717-24-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000732717-25-000013", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_66", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only KINDER MORGAN, INC. (KMI)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical operating margin values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001506307-21-000022", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001506307-22-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001506307-23-000023", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001506307-24-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001506307-25-000008", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_67", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only CARDINAL HEALTH INC (CAH)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace net-profit YoY growth and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000721371-20-000089", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000721371-21-000080", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000721371-22-000058", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000721371-23-000060", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000721371-24-000056", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_68", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only TENET HEALTHCARE CORP (THC)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical net-profit YoY growth values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000070318-21-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000070318-22-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000070318-23-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000070318-24-000016", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000070318-25-000009", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_69", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only LENNAR CORP /NEW/ (LEN)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace operating-cash-flow YoY growth and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001628280-21-000722", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-22-001450", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-23-001606", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-002371", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-002404", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_70", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. (STWD)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical operating-cash-flow YoY growth values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001558370-21-001712", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-22-003917", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-23-005726", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-006128", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-008420", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_71", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only PULTEGROUP INC/MI/ (PHM)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace operating-cash-flow margin and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000822416-21-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000822416-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000822416-23-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000822416-24-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000822416-25-000007", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_72", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only ENBRIDGE INC (ENB)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical operating-cash-flow margin values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000895728-21-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000895728-22-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000895728-23-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000895728-24-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000895728-25-000006", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_73", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only ARROW ELECTRONICS, INC. (ARW)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace operating-cash-flow conversion and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001733391-21-000003", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001859644-22-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001859644-23-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-24-001018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-25-000781", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_74", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical operating-cash-flow conversion values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001193125-21-048994", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-22-046707", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-003234", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-016524", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-020134", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_75", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC (MSM)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001003078-20-000283", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001003078-21-000199", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001003078-22-000127", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001003078-23-000102", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001003078-24-000107", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_76", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only DEERE & CO (DE)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001558370-20-014436", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-21-016864", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-22-018703", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-23-019812", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-24-016169", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_77", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine LITHIA MOTORS INC (LAD)'s FY2020-FY2023 inventory-to-revenue ratio path with FY2023 Risk Factors disclosure about demand to forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001023128-21-000022", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001023128-22-000042", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001023128-23-000053", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001023128-24-000032", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001023128-25-000026", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_78", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by Cloudflare, Inc. (NET)'s historical current ratio and the pricing signal in MD&A? A. Clear decline (≤-0.05x) | B. Broadly stable (-0.05 to 0.05x) | C. Moderate increase (>0.05 and <0.25x) | D. Strong increase (≥0.25x)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001477333-21-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001477333-22-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001477333-23-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001477333-24-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001477333-25-000043", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_79", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC (NLY)'s four-year liabilities-to-assets ratio record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of inflation supports continuation in FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001628280-21-002510", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-22-003099", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-23-003895", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-005115", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-005451", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_80", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)'s FY2020-FY2023 net-fixed-assets YoY growth path with FY2023 Risk Factors disclosure about working capital to forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000794170-20-000066", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000794170-21-000079", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000794170-22-000049", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000794170-23-000066", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000794170-24-000051", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_81", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET)'s historical R&D expense ratio and the liquidity signal in MD&A? A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001596532-21-000049", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001596532-22-000026", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001596532-23-000016", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001596532-24-000043", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001596532-25-000028", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_82", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the competition signal from Permian Resources Corp (PR)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 management-expense ratio, and judge the FY2024 direction. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001658566-21-000033", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001658566-22-000022", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001658566-23-000019", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001658566-24-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001658566-25-000014", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_83", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC (GPN)'s FY2020-FY2023 total-equity YoY growth, total-revenue YoY growth, and FY2023 Risk Factors signal to forecast FY2024 and explain whether the evidence agrees. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001123360-21-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001123360-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001123360-23-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001123360-24-000004", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001123360-25-000011", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_84", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Build an evidence chain for KBR, INC. (KBR) from historical metrics to management signal to FY2024 judgment, using both total-liabilities YoY growth and gross margin. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001357615-21-000040", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001357615-22-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001357615-23-000030", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001357615-24-000016", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001357615-25-000018", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "C" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_85", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine W.W. GRAINGER, INC. (GWW)'s FY2020-FY2023 return on assets, net-profit YoY growth, and FY2023 MD&A signal to forecast FY2024 and explain whether the evidence agrees. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000277135-21-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000277135-22-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000277135-23-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000277135-24-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000277135-25-000010", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_86", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only TYSON FOODS, INC. (TSN)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace operating-revenue YoY growth and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000100493-20-000132", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000100493-21-000122", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000100493-22-000097", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000100493-23-000105", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000100493-24-000119", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_87", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only Parker-Hannifin Corp (PH)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical operating-revenue YoY growth values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000076334-20-000099", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000076334-21-000187", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000076334-22-000034", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000076334-23-000042", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000076334-24-000044", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "C" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_88", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only MCDONALDS CORP (MCD)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace operating-profit YoY growth and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000063908-21-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000063908-22-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000063908-23-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000063908-24-000072", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000063908-25-000012", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_89", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only CATERPILLAR INC (CAT)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical operating-profit YoY growth values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000018230-21-000063", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000018230-22-000050", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000018230-23-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000018230-24-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000018230-25-000008", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_90", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. (NOG)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace accounts-payable-to-revenue ratio and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001104485-21-000026", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001104485-22-000047", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001104485-23-000041", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001104485-24-000045", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001104485-25-000039", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_91", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only Valaris Ltd (VAL)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical accounts-payable-to-revenue ratio values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000314808-21-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000314808-22-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000314808-23-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000314808-24-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000314808-25-000028", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_92", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only TransDigm Group INC (TDG)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace total-revenue YoY growth and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001260221-20-000099", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001260221-21-000134", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001260221-22-000065", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001260221-23-000081", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001260221-24-000083", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_93", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORP (WAB)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical total-revenue YoY growth values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001628280-21-002557", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-22-002997", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-23-003675", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-004774", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-005100", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "C" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_94", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, INC. (DKS)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace gross margin and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001089063-21-000036", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001089063-22-000031", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001089063-23-000023", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001089063-24-000037", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001089063-25-000012", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_95", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical gross margin values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-009308", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-22-007980", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-004939", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-018584", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-023953", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_96", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace operating margin and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-006640", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-22-006563", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-003797", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-015841", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-023983", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_97", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only California Resources Corp (CRC)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical operating margin values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001609253-21-000047", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001609253-22-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001609253-23-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001609253-24-000043", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001609253-25-000027", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_98", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only US BANCORP \\DE\\ (USB)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace net-profit YoY growth and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001193125-21-052547", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-22-048709", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-23-050691", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000036104-24-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000036104-25-000016", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_99", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BNY)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical net-profit YoY growth values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001390777-21-000037", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001390777-22-000043", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001390777-23-000033", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001390777-24-000051", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001390777-25-000046", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_100", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC (BRK-B)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace operating-cash-flow YoY growth and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-009611", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-22-007322", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-004451", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-019719", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-025210", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_101", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC (PRU)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical operating-cash-flow YoY growth values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001137774-21-000049", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001137774-22-000038", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001137774-23-000040", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001137774-24-000045", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001137774-25-000044", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_102", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine PG&E Corp (PCG)'s FY2020-FY2023 operating-cash-flow margin path with FY2023 Risk Factors disclosure about working capital to forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001004980-21-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001004980-22-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001004980-23-000029", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001004980-24-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001004980-25-000010", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_103", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC (AMP)'s four-year operating-cash-flow conversion record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of liquidity supports continuation in FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000820027-21-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000820027-22-000016", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000820027-23-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000820027-24-000015", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000820027-25-000013", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_104", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the competition signal from KILROY REALTY CORP (KRC)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio, and judge the FY2024 direction. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001025996-21-000062", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001025996-22-000074", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001025996-23-000072", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001025996-24-000094", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001025996-25-000052", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_105", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine EPAM Systems, Inc. (EPAM)'s FY2020-FY2023 current ratio path with FY2023 Risk Factors disclosure about demand to forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-0.05x) | B. Broadly stable (-0.05 to 0.05x) | C. Moderate increase (>0.05 and <0.25x) | D. Strong increase (≥0.25x)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001352010-21-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001352010-22-000020", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001352010-23-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001352010-24-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001352010-25-000007", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_106", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Build an evidence chain for GENWORTH FINANCIAL INC (GNW) from historical metrics to management signal to FY2024 judgment, using both liabilities-to-assets ratio and total-liabilities YoY growth. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001193125-21-058267", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-22-055674", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-23-053994", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-24-051772", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-25-041860", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_107", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only Meritage Homes CORP (MTH)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace net-fixed-assets YoY growth and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000833079-21-000019", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000833079-22-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000833079-23-000022", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000833079-24-000015", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000833079-25-000021", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_108", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only TUTOR PERINI CORP (TPC)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical net-fixed-assets YoY growth values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000077543-21-000020", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000077543-22-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000077543-23-000023", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000077543-24-000015", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000077543-25-000025", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_109", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only ETSY INC (ETSY)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace R&D expense ratio and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001370637-21-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001370637-22-000024", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001370637-23-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001370637-24-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001370637-25-000017", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_110", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only NEW YORK TIMES CO (NYT)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical R&D expense ratio values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000071691-21-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000071691-22-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000071691-23-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000071691-24-000030", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000071691-25-000047", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_111", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "Using only ACCENDRA HEALTH INC/VA/ (ACH)'s structured 10-K data for FY2020-FY2023, trace management-expense ratio and predict its FY2024 change versus FY2023. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000075252-21-000034", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000075252-22-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000075252-23-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-24-001369", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-25-001940", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_112", "type": "multi_period_trend", "query": "An analyst can access only Blackstone Inc. (BX)'s financial records through FY2023. Compare the historical management-expense ratio values, then forecast FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001193125-21-060361", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-22-054433", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-23-048733", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-24-044485", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001193125-25-042469", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_113", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review HERBALIFE LTD. (HLF)'s four-year total-assets YoY growth record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of competition supports continuation in FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001193125-21-046519", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-22-001787", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-002787", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-015266", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-023207", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_114", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the margin signal from Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 total-equity YoY growth, and judge the FY2024 direction. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001556593-21-000004", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001556593-22-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001556593-23-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001556593-24-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001556593-25-000007", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "D" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_115", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by Equitable Holdings, Inc. (EQH)'s historical basic-EPS YoY growth and the pricing signal in MD&A? A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001333986-21-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001333986-22-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001333986-23-000004", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001333986-24-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001333986-25-000011", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "C" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_116", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL INC (OII)'s four-year return on assets record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of inflation supports continuation in FY2024. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000073756-21-000023", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000073756-22-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000073756-23-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000073756-24-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000073756-25-000016", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_117", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE)'s FY2020-FY2023 operating-profit YoY growth, operating-cash-flow margin, and FY2023 Risk Factors signal to forecast FY2024 and explain whether the evidence agrees. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001645590-20-000056", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001645590-21-000068", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001645590-22-000071", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001645590-23-000117", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001645590-24-000139", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "C" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_118", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Build an evidence chain for CHART INDUSTRIES INC (GTLS) from historical metrics to management signal to FY2024 judgment, using both accounts-payable-to-revenue ratio and operating-cash-flow conversion. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000892553-21-000032", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000892553-22-000061", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000892553-23-000043", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000892553-24-000067", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000892553-25-000039", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "B" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_119", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI)'s FY2020-FY2023 gross margin, inventory-to-revenue ratio, and FY2023 MD&A signal to forecast FY2024 and explain whether the evidence agrees. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000701985-21-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000701985-22-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000701985-23-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000701985-24-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000701985-25-000011", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "A" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_120", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Build an evidence chain for EXPRO GROUP HOLDINGS N.V. (XPRO) from historical metrics to management signal to FY2024 judgment, using both operating margin and current ratio. A. Clear decline (≤-2%) | B. Broadly stable (-2 to 2%) | C. Moderate increase (>2 and <10%) | D. Strong increase (≥10%)", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to select the most likely forecast outcome; return only one option.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001575828-21-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-22-005566", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-23-004408", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-24-005041", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-25-005059", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "C" }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_121", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by Celanese Corp (CE)'s historical inventory-to-revenue ratio and the demand signal in Risk Factors? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001306830-21-000020", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001306830-22-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001306830-23-000023", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001306830-24-000029", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001306830-25-000027", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 inventory-to-revenue ratio remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of 0.67%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 17.85%, 29.03%, 21.54%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “demand” signal.\n- Explanation: inventory-to-revenue ratio moved from 17.85% in FY2021 to 21.54% in FY2023. The FY2023 Risk Factors “demand” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a reinforcing signal. Working-capital intensity can reveal collection, destocking, or supply-chain pressure. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_122", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the demand signal from KOHLS Corp (KSS)'s FY2023 Risk Factors, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 inventory-to-revenue ratio, and judge the FY2024 direction. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-014145", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-22-004076", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-008444", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-034691", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-042662", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 inventory-to-revenue ratio remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of -0.5%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 12.97%, 19.22%, 16.41%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “demand” signal.\n- Explanation: inventory-to-revenue ratio moved from 12.97% in FY2021 to 16.41% in FY2023. The FY2023 Risk Factors “demand” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a reinforcing signal. Working-capital intensity can reveal collection, destocking, or supply-chain pressure. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_123", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine RELIANCE, INC. (RS)'s FY2020-FY2023 current ratio path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about pricing to forecast FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001558370-21-001836", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-22-001918", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-23-002368", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-24-002166", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-25-001806", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 current ratio increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 3.21x.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 3.91x, 3.55x, 5.66x.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: current ratio moved from 3.91x in FY2021 to 5.66x in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “pricing” disclosure is cautious, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_124", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review TWILIO INC (TWLO)'s four-year current ratio record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of pricing supports continuation in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001447669-21-000070", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001447669-22-000049", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001447669-23-000049", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001447669-24-000034", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001447669-25-000035", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 current ratio increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 4.2x.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 8.43x, 6.17x, 6.64x.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: current ratio moved from 8.43x in FY2021 to 6.64x in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “pricing” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_125", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the pricing signal from Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 current ratio, and judge the FY2024 direction. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001637207-21-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001637207-22-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001637207-23-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001637207-24-000020", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001637207-25-000016", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 current ratio increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 2.08x.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 3.75x, 2.27x, 1.88x.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: current ratio moved from 3.75x in FY2021 to 1.88x in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “pricing” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_126", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC. (CLF)'s historical liabilities-to-assets ratio and the inflation signal in MD&A? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000764065-21-000084", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000764065-22-000037", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000764065-23-000032", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000764065-24-000038", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000764065-25-000058", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 liabilities-to-assets ratio increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 13.39%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 69.57%, 57.12%, 53.69%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “inflation” signal.\n- Explanation: liabilities-to-assets ratio moved from 69.57% in FY2021 to 53.69% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “inflation” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_127", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the inflation signal from HALLIBURTON CO (HAL)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 liabilities-to-assets ratio, and judge the FY2024 direction. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000045012-21-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000045012-22-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000045012-23-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000045012-24-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000045012-25-000010", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 liabilities-to-assets ratio decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -3.01%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 69.86%, 65.7%, 61.78%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “inflation” signal.\n- Explanation: liabilities-to-assets ratio moved from 69.86% in FY2021 to 61.78% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “inflation” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_128", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine TARGET CORP (TGT)'s FY2020-FY2023 cash-to-current-liabilities ratio path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about capacity to forecast FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000027419-21-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000027419-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000027419-23-000015", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000027419-24-000032", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000027419-25-000018", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 cash-to-current-liabilities ratio decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -13.03%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 7.73%, 11.85%, 43.65%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “capacity” signal.\n- Explanation: cash-to-current-liabilities ratio moved from 7.73% in FY2021 to 43.65% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “capacity” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a reinforcing signal. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_129", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review CENTENE CORP (CNC)'s four-year cash-to-current-liabilities ratio record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of capacity supports continuation in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001071739-21-000039", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001071739-22-000071", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001071739-23-000047", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001071739-24-000037", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001071739-25-000027", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 cash-to-current-liabilities ratio decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -5.78%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 50.91%, 42.42%, 46.83%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “capacity” signal.\n- Explanation: cash-to-current-liabilities ratio moved from 50.91% in FY2021 to 46.83% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “capacity” disclosure is cautious, creating a reinforcing signal. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_130", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the capacity signal from Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 cash-to-current-liabilities ratio, and judge the FY2024 direction. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001646972-21-000026", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001646972-22-000031", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001646972-23-000045", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001646972-24-000060", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001646972-25-000052", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 cash-to-current-liabilities ratio decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -2.88%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 25.13%, 34.76%, 5.41%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “capacity” signal.\n- Explanation: cash-to-current-liabilities ratio moved from 25.13% in FY2021 to 5.41% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “capacity” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_131", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by MASTEC INC (MTZ)'s historical net-fixed-assets YoY growth and the working capital signal in Risk Factors? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000015615-21-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000015615-22-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000015615-23-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000015615-24-000021", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000015615-25-000021", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 net-fixed-assets YoY growth decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -6.21%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 46.19%, 22.14%, -5.85%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “working capital” signal.\n- Explanation: net-fixed-assets YoY growth moved from 46.19% in FY2021 to -5.85% in FY2023. The FY2023 Risk Factors “working capital” disclosure is cautious, creating a reinforcing signal. Asset investment must be read alongside demand and capacity utilization. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_132", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)'s four-year net-fixed-assets YoY growth record, then assess whether the FY2023 Risk Factors discussion of working capital supports continuation in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000105634-21-000044", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000105634-22-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000105634-23-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000105634-24-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000105634-25-000015", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 net-fixed-assets YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 15.67%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were -4.02%, 3.78%, 13.66%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “working capital” signal.\n- Explanation: net-fixed-assets YoY growth moved from -4.02% in FY2021 to 13.66% in FY2023. The FY2023 Risk Factors “working capital” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Asset investment must be read alongside demand and capacity utilization. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_133", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine Block, Inc. (XYZ)'s FY2020-FY2023 R&D expense ratio path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about liquidity to forecast FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001512673-21-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-22-003825", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-23-004840", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-006354", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-007376", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 R&D expense ratio remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of -0.33%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 7.92%, 12.18%, 12.41%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “liquidity” signal.\n- Explanation: R&D expense ratio moved from 7.92% in FY2021 to 12.41% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “liquidity” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Expense ratios indicate investment intensity and operating leverage. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_134", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review HUBSPOT INC (HUBS)'s four-year R&D expense ratio record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of liquidity supports continuation in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-006083", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-22-001221", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-003077", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-015277", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-018873", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 R&D expense ratio remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of 1.17%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 23.22%, 25.54%, 28.46%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “liquidity” signal.\n- Explanation: R&D expense ratio moved from 23.22% in FY2021 to 28.46% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “liquidity” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Expense ratios indicate investment intensity and operating leverage. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_135", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the liquidity signal from Snap Inc (SNAP)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 R&D expense ratio, and judge the FY2024 direction. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-004377", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-22-003868", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564408-23-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564408-24-000019", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564408-25-000019", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 R&D expense ratio decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -9.93%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 38.02%, 45.85%, 41.49%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “liquidity” signal.\n- Explanation: R&D expense ratio moved from 38.02% in FY2021 to 41.49% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “liquidity” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Expense ratios indicate investment intensity and operating leverage. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_136", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by QXO, Inc. (QXO)'s historical management-expense ratio and the competition signal in MD&A? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001185185-21-000371", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001185185-22-000335", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001185185-23-000161", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001185185-24-000237", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-009626", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 management-expense ratio increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 144.68%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 22.55%, 21.05%, 18.74%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “competition” signal.\n- Explanation: management-expense ratio moved from 22.55% in FY2021 to 18.74% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “competition” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Expense ratios indicate investment intensity and operating leverage. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_137", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review EMERSON ELECTRIC CO (EMR)'s four-year management-expense ratio record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of competition supports continuation in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000032604-20-000041", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000032604-21-000038", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000032604-22-000041", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000032604-23-000044", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000032604-24-000041", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 management-expense ratio remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of 1.79%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 22.92%, 21.64%, 27.6%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “competition” signal.\n- Explanation: management-expense ratio moved from 22.92% in FY2021 to 27.6% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “competition” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Expense ratios indicate investment intensity and operating leverage. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_138", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)'s FY2020-FY2023 total-assets YoY growth path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about margin to forecast FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-20-040455", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-21-045434", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-22-017624", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-043011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-097033", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-assets YoY growth remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of 0.98%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 65.89%, 1.63%, 57.77%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “margin” signal.\n- Explanation: total-assets YoY growth moved from 65.89% in FY2021 to 57.77% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “margin” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Asset investment must be read alongside demand and capacity utilization. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_139", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review Ryerson Holding Corp (RYZ)'s four-year total-assets YoY growth record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of margin supports continuation in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-008111", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-22-006263", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-003768", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-018005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-024199", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-assets YoY growth decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -5.06%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 31.27%, -1.32%, 10.08%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “margin” signal.\n- Explanation: total-assets YoY growth moved from 31.27% in FY2021 to 10.08% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “margin” disclosure is cautious, creating a reinforcing signal. Asset investment must be read alongside demand and capacity utilization. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_140", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the margin signal from Gold.com, Inc. (GOLD)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 total-assets YoY growth, and judge the FY2024 direction. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-20-043316", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-21-047760", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-22-018068", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-047575", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-106317", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-assets YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 18.26%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 57.19%, 21.07%, 7.13%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “margin” signal.\n- Explanation: total-assets YoY growth moved from 57.19% in FY2021 to 7.13% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “margin” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Asset investment must be read alongside demand and capacity utilization. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_141", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "With the research cutoff at the FY2023 filing, do UNITED RENTALS, INC. (URI)'s total-equity YoY growth and total-revenue YoY growth reinforce or contradict each other, and what does that imply for FY2024? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001067701-21-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001067701-22-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001067701-23-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001067701-24-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001067701-25-000008", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-equity YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 6.05%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 31.82%, 17.88%, 15.12%; the secondary FY2023 value was 23.11%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “demand” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while total-revenue YoY growth moved from 13.9% to 23.11%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Capital-structure changes affect expansion capacity and financial resilience. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_142", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Build an evidence chain for ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) from historical metrics to management signal to FY2024 judgment, using both total-equity YoY growth and total-revenue YoY growth. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001373715-21-000061", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001373715-22-000024", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001373715-23-000035", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001373715-24-000030", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001373715-25-000010", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-equity YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 25.97%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 30.36%, 36.18%, 51.59%; the secondary FY2023 value was 23.82%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “demand” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric increased in FY2023, while total-revenue YoY growth moved from 30.46% to 23.82%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Capital-structure changes affect expansion capacity and financial resilience. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_143", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC)'s FY2020-FY2023 total-liabilities YoY growth, gross margin, and FY2023 MD&A signal to forecast FY2024 and explain whether the evidence agrees. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001628280-21-003044", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-22-003466", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-23-004524", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-017842", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-006416", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-liabilities YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 2.37%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 14.78%, -19.61%, -12.66%; the secondary FY2023 value was 24.04%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while gross margin moved from 20.63% to 24.04%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_144", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "With the research cutoff at the FY2023 filing, do Accenture plc (ACN)'s total-liabilities YoY growth and gross margin reinforce or contradict each other, and what does that imply for FY2024? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001467373-20-000376", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001467373-21-000229", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001467373-22-000295", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001467373-23-000324", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001467373-24-000278", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-liabilities YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 7.98%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 17.87%, 6.23%, 1.1%; the secondary FY2023 value was 32.34%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while gross margin moved from 32.38% to 32.34%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_145", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Analyze Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS)'s total-liabilities YoY growth and gross margin through FY2023, then use the pricing discussion in MD&A to test continuation versus reversal in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001336920-21-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001336920-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001336920-23-000015", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001336920-24-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001336920-25-000006", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-liabilities YoY growth decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -3.22%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 49.01%, 0%, -2.23%; the secondary FY2023 value was 14.66%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while gross margin moved from 14.66% to 14.66%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_146", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine FEDEX CORP (FDX)'s FY2020-FY2023 basic-EPS YoY growth, operating margin, and FY2023 MD&A signal to forecast FY2024 and explain whether the evidence agrees. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-20-032775", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-21-037031", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-22-012762", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-033201", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-083577", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 basic-EPS YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 11.6%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 302.24%, -26.53%, 7.29%; the secondary FY2023 value was 5.45%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “inflation” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while operating margin moved from 6.98% to 5.45%. The two indicators are reinforcing. Profit combines revenue, cost, and operating-leverage effects. This relationship therefore raises confidence in continuation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_147", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Build an evidence chain for ENTERGY CORP /DE/ (ETR) from historical metrics to management signal to FY2024 judgment, using both basic-EPS YoY growth and operating margin. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000065984-21-000096", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000065984-22-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000065984-23-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000065984-24-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000065984-25-000012", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 basic-EPS YoY growth decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -77.83%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were -19.74%, -3.05%, 106.3%; the secondary FY2023 value was 21.55%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “inflation” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric increased in FY2023, while operating margin moved from 15.72% to 21.55%. The two indicators are reinforcing. Profit combines revenue, cost, and operating-leverage effects. This relationship therefore raises confidence in continuation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_148", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Analyze DOLLAR GENERAL CORP (DG)'s basic-EPS YoY growth and operating margin through FY2023, then use the inflation discussion in MD&A to test continuation versus reversal in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001558370-21-003245", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-22-003921", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-23-004574", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-24-003813", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-25-003413", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 basic-EPS YoY growth decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -50%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 11.52%, 60.18%, -4.3%; the secondary FY2023 value was 9.41%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “inflation” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while operating margin moved from 8.3% to 9.41%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Profit combines revenue, cost, and operating-leverage effects. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_149", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "With the research cutoff at the FY2023 filing, do BOISE CASCADE Co (BCC)'s return on assets and net-profit YoY growth reinforce or contradict each other, and what does that imply for FY2024? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001328581-21-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001328581-22-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001328581-23-000020", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001328581-24-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001328581-25-000010", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 return on assets decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -3.42%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 31.4%, 29.51%, 14.44%; the secondary FY2023 value was -43.61%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “capacity” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while net-profit YoY growth moved from 307.18% to -43.61%. The two indicators are reinforcing. Margin movement reflects pricing power and cost pass-through. This relationship therefore raises confidence in continuation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_150", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Build an evidence chain for APPLIED INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGIES INC (AIT) from historical metrics to management signal to FY2024 judgment, using both return on assets and net-profit YoY growth. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000109563-20-000083", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000109563-21-000082", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000109563-22-000096", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000109563-23-000075", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000109563-24-000078", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 return on assets remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of 0.2%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 6.36%, 10.9%, 13.35%; the secondary FY2023 value was 34.7%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “capacity” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric increased in FY2023, while net-profit YoY growth moved from 502.1% to 34.7%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Margin movement reflects pricing power and cost pass-through. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_151", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by FIRSTENERGY CORP (FE)'s historical operating-cash-flow margin and the working capital signal in Risk Factors? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001031296-21-000020", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001031296-22-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001031296-23-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001031296-24-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001031296-25-000006", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 operating-cash-flow margin increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 10.68%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 25.25%, 21.53%, 10.78%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “working capital” signal.\n- Explanation: operating-cash-flow margin moved from 25.25% in FY2021 to 10.78% in FY2023. The FY2023 Risk Factors “working capital” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Cash-flow metrics test earnings realization and collection quality. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_152", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review NISOURCE INC. (NI)'s four-year operating-cash-flow margin record, then assess whether the FY2023 Risk Factors discussion of working capital supports continuation in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001111711-21-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001111711-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001111711-23-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001111711-24-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001111711-25-000008", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 operating-cash-flow margin decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -2.46%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 25.74%, 24.56%, 36.18%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “working capital” signal.\n- Explanation: operating-cash-flow margin moved from 25.74% in FY2021 to 36.18% in FY2023. The FY2023 Risk Factors “working capital” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Cash-flow metrics test earnings realization and collection quality. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_153", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine Athene Holding Ltd. (ATH-PA)'s FY2020-FY2023 operating-cash-flow conversion path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about liquidity to forecast FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001527469-21-000025", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001527469-22-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001527469-23-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001527469-24-000021", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001527469-25-000016", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 operating-cash-flow conversion increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 54.2%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 266.7%, -150.36%, 106.82%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “liquidity” signal.\n- Explanation: operating-cash-flow conversion moved from 266.7% in FY2021 to 106.82% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “liquidity” disclosure is cautious, creating a reinforcing signal. Cash-flow metrics test earnings realization and collection quality. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_154", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by FIFTH THIRD BANCORP (FITB)'s historical operating-cash-flow conversion and the liquidity signal in MD&A? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000035527-21-000100", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000035527-22-000119", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000035527-23-000122", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000035527-24-000088", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000035527-25-000079", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 operating-cash-flow conversion increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 122.04%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 97.62%, 262.8%, 191.95%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “liquidity” signal.\n- Explanation: operating-cash-flow conversion moved from 97.62% in FY2021 to 191.95% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “liquidity” disclosure is cautious, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Cash-flow metrics test earnings realization and collection quality. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_155", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the liquidity signal from Chubb Ltd (CB)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 operating-cash-flow conversion, and judge the FY2024 direction. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000896159-21-000003", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000896159-22-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000896159-23-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000896159-24-000003", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000896159-25-000004", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 operating-cash-flow conversion increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 174.53%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 130.57%, 211.61%, 139.92%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “liquidity” signal.\n- Explanation: operating-cash-flow conversion moved from 130.57% in FY2021 to 139.92% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “liquidity” disclosure is cautious, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Cash-flow metrics test earnings realization and collection quality. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_156", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by LOEWS CORP (L)'s historical accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio and the competition signal in MD&A? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001140361-21-003906", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000060086-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000060086-23-000025", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000060086-24-000029", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000060086-25-000036", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of -0.66%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 63.27%, 66.95%, 60.75%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “competition” signal.\n- Explanation: accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio moved from 63.27% in FY2021 to 60.75% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “competition” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Working-capital intensity can reveal collection, destocking, or supply-chain pressure. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_157", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review Lazard, Inc. (LAZ)'s four-year accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of competition supports continuation in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-009197", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-22-007675", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-23-002334", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-006659", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-007441", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -5.4%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 24.61%, 22.86%, 29.4%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “competition” signal.\n- Explanation: accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio moved from 24.61% in FY2021 to 29.4% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “competition” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Working-capital intensity can reveal collection, destocking, or supply-chain pressure. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_158", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP (GD)'s FY2020-FY2023 inventory-to-revenue ratio path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about margin to forecast FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000040533-21-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000040533-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000040533-23-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000040533-24-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000040533-25-000008", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 inventory-to-revenue ratio remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of 0.09%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 13.88%, 16.04%, 20.29%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “margin” signal.\n- Explanation: inventory-to-revenue ratio moved from 13.88% in FY2021 to 20.29% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “margin” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a reinforcing signal. Working-capital intensity can reveal collection, destocking, or supply-chain pressure. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_159", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)'s historical inventory-to-revenue ratio and the margin signal in MD&A? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000007084-21-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000007084-22-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000007084-23-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000007084-24-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000007084-25-000011", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 inventory-to-revenue ratio remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of 0.8%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 16.99%, 14.54%, 12.73%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “margin” signal.\n- Explanation: inventory-to-revenue ratio moved from 16.99% in FY2021 to 12.73% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “margin” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Working-capital intensity can reveal collection, destocking, or supply-chain pressure. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_160", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the margin signal from STANLEY BLACK & DECKER, INC. (SWK)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 inventory-to-revenue ratio, and judge the FY2024 direction. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000093556-21-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000093556-22-000015", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000093556-23-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000093556-24-000032", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000093556-25-000007", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 inventory-to-revenue ratio decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -10.39%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 20.44%, 34.58%, 38.35%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “margin” signal.\n- Explanation: inventory-to-revenue ratio moved from 20.44% in FY2021 to 38.35% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “margin” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a reinforcing signal. Working-capital intensity can reveal collection, destocking, or supply-chain pressure. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_161", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by Covista Inc. (CVSA)'s historical current ratio and the demand signal in Risk Factors? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001558370-20-010728", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-21-011957", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-22-013289", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-23-014509", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-24-011099", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 current ratio remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of 0.86x.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 3.71x, 1.33x, 1.11x.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “demand” signal.\n- Explanation: current ratio moved from 3.71x in FY2021 to 1.11x in FY2023. The FY2023 Risk Factors “demand” disclosure is cautious, creating a reinforcing signal. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_162", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review PINTEREST, INC. (PINS)'s four-year current ratio record, then assess whether the FY2023 Risk Factors discussion of demand supports continuation in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001506293-21-000025", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001506293-22-000016", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001506293-23-000023", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001506293-24-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001506293-25-000022", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 current ratio increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 8.75x.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 12.25x, 9.08x, 10.53x.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “demand” signal.\n- Explanation: current ratio moved from 12.25x in FY2021 to 10.53x in FY2023. The FY2023 Risk Factors “demand” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_163", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine ALLSTATE CORP (ALL)'s FY2020-FY2023 liabilities-to-assets ratio, total-liabilities YoY growth, and FY2023 MD&A signal to forecast FY2024 and explain whether the evidence agrees. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000899051-21-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000899051-22-000015", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000899051-23-000020", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000899051-24-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000899051-25-000015", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 liabilities-to-assets ratio decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -2.09%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 74.73%, 82.29%, 82.94%; the secondary FY2023 value was 6.36%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric increased in FY2023, while total-liabilities YoY growth moved from -22.4% to 6.36%. The two indicators are reinforcing. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. This relationship therefore raises confidence in continuation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_164", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "With the research cutoff at the FY2023 filing, do REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA INC (RGA)'s liabilities-to-assets ratio and total-liabilities YoY growth reinforce or contradict each other, and what does that imply for FY2024? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000898174-21-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000898174-22-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000898174-23-000046", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000898174-24-000048", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000898174-25-000027", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 liabilities-to-assets ratio remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of 0.2%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 85.88%, 95%, 90.61%; the secondary FY2023 value was 9.92%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric increased in FY2023, while total-liabilities YoY growth moved from 12.6% to 9.92%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_165", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Analyze CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO)'s liabilities-to-assets ratio and total-liabilities YoY growth through FY2023, then use the pricing discussion in MD&A to test continuation versus reversal in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001224608-21-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001224608-22-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001224608-23-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001224608-24-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001224608-25-000006", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 liabilities-to-assets ratio remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of -0.29%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 85.47%, 95.8%, 93.69%; the secondary FY2023 value was 2.97%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric increased in FY2023, while total-liabilities YoY growth moved from 3.65% to 2.97%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_166", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC. (TMO)'s FY2020-FY2023 cash-to-current-liabilities ratio, basic-EPS YoY growth, and FY2023 MD&A signal to forecast FY2024 and explain whether the evidence agrees. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000097745-21-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000097745-22-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000097745-23-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000097745-24-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000097745-25-000010", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 cash-to-current-liabilities ratio decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -27.57%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 33.32%, 50.11%, 57.64%; the secondary FY2023 value was -12.56%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “inflation” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric increased in FY2023, while basic-EPS YoY growth moved from 21.94% to -12.56%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_167", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Build an evidence chain for BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO (BMY) from historical metrics to management signal to FY2024 judgment, using both cash-to-current-liabilities ratio and basic-EPS YoY growth. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000014272-21-000066", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000014272-22-000051", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000014272-23-000046", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000014272-24-000044", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000014272-25-000039", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 cash-to-current-liabilities ratio decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -7.98%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 63.92%, 41.68%, 51.5%; the secondary FY2023 value was 30.64%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “inflation” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while basic-EPS YoY growth moved from 178.95% to 30.64%. The two indicators are reinforcing. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. This relationship therefore raises confidence in continuation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_168", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Analyze Phillips 66 (PSX)'s cash-to-current-liabilities ratio and basic-EPS YoY growth through FY2023, then use the inflation discussion in MD&A to test continuation versus reversal in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001534701-21-000074", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001534701-22-000078", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001534701-23-000053", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001534701-24-000078", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001534701-25-000074", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 cash-to-current-liabilities ratio decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -9.44%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 24.58%, 38.6%, 20.96%; the secondary FY2023 value was -33.39%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “inflation” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while basic-EPS YoY growth moved from 132.78% to -33.39%. The two indicators are reinforcing. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. This relationship therefore raises confidence in continuation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_169", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (SITE)'s FY2020-FY2023 total-assets YoY growth path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about competition to forecast FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001650729-21-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001650729-22-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001650729-23-000003", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001650729-24-000004", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001650729-25-000004", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-assets YoY growth remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of 0%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 17.49%, 24.79%, 33.68%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “competition” signal.\n- Explanation: total-assets YoY growth moved from 17.49% in FY2021 to 33.68% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “competition” disclosure is cautious, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Asset investment must be read alongside demand and capacity utilization. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_170", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by WORLD KINECT CORP (WKC)'s historical total-assets YoY growth and the competition signal in MD&A? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001628280-21-003481", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-22-004028", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-23-005058", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-24-006634", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001628280-25-007620", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-assets YoY growth decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -8.73%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 32.04%, 37.4%, -9.67%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “competition” signal.\n- Explanation: total-assets YoY growth moved from 32.04% in FY2021 to -9.67% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “competition” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Asset investment must be read alongside demand and capacity utilization. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_171", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the competition signal from WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATION (WAL)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 total-assets YoY growth, and judge the FY2024 direction. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001212545-21-000085", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001212545-22-000090", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001212545-23-000093", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001212545-24-000092", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001212545-25-000090", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-assets YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 14.21%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 53.54%, 20.99%, 4.62%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “competition” signal.\n- Explanation: total-assets YoY growth moved from 53.54% in FY2021 to 4.62% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “competition” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Asset investment must be read alongside demand and capacity utilization. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_172", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine METLIFE INC (MET)'s FY2020-FY2023 total-equity YoY growth path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about margin to forecast FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001099219-21-000050", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001099219-22-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001099219-23-000045", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001099219-24-000035", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001099219-25-000044", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-equity YoY growth decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -8.43%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were -9.45%, -59.72%, 10.87%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “margin” signal.\n- Explanation: total-equity YoY growth moved from -9.45% in FY2021 to 10.87% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “margin” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a reinforcing signal. Capital-structure changes affect expansion capacity and financial resilience. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_173", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY)'s four-year total-equity YoY growth record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of margin supports continuation in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000040729-21-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000040729-22-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000040729-23-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000040729-24-000004", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000040729-25-000006", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-equity YoY growth remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of 1%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 15.96%, -24.58%, 7.05%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “margin” signal.\n- Explanation: total-equity YoY growth moved from 15.96% in FY2021 to 7.05% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “margin” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Capital-structure changes affect expansion capacity and financial resilience. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_174", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine QUEST DIAGNOSTICS INC (DGX)'s FY2020-FY2023 total-liabilities YoY growth path with FY2023 Risk Factors disclosure about demand to forecast FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001022079-21-000029", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001022079-22-000027", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001022079-23-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001022079-24-000041", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001022079-25-000044", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-liabilities YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 21.61%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were -1.23%, -3.1%, 11.19%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “demand” signal.\n- Explanation: total-liabilities YoY growth moved from -1.23% in FY2021 to 11.19% in FY2023. The FY2023 Risk Factors “demand” disclosure is cautious, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_175", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by MOODYS CORP /DE/ (MCO)'s historical total-liabilities YoY growth and the demand signal in Risk Factors? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001059556-21-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001059556-22-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001059556-23-000016", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001059556-24-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001059556-25-000025", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-liabilities YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 5.67%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 10.5%, -0.88%, -4.41%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “demand” signal.\n- Explanation: total-liabilities YoY growth moved from 10.5% in FY2021 to -4.41% in FY2023. The FY2023 Risk Factors “demand” disclosure is cautious, creating a reinforcing signal. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_176", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the demand signal from EQUIFAX INC (EFX)'s FY2023 Risk Factors, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 total-liabilities YoY growth, and judge the FY2024 direction. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000033185-21-000025", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000033185-22-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000033185-23-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000033185-24-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000033185-25-000025", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-liabilities YoY growth decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -9.91%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 16.22%, 1.81%, 0.24%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “demand” signal.\n- Explanation: total-liabilities YoY growth moved from 16.22% in FY2021 to 0.24% in FY2023. The FY2023 Risk Factors “demand” disclosure is cautious, creating a reinforcing signal. Liquidity and leverage jointly indicate the size of the repayment buffer. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_177", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC. (TRV)'s FY2020-FY2023 basic-EPS YoY growth path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about pricing to forecast FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000086312-21-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000086312-22-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000086312-23-000011", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000086312-24-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000086312-25-000012", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 basic-EPS YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 68.29%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 38.54%, -18.59%, 8.56%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: basic-EPS YoY growth moved from 38.54% in FY2021 to 8.56% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “pricing” disclosure is cautious, creating a reinforcing signal. Profit combines revenue, cost, and operating-leverage effects. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_178", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR)'s four-year basic-EPS YoY growth record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of pricing supports continuation in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000080661-21-000014", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000080661-22-000046", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000080661-23-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000080661-24-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000080661-25-000007", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 basic-EPS YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 118.61%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were -41.4%, -79.09%, 455.46%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: basic-EPS YoY growth moved from -41.4% in FY2021 to 455.46% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “pricing” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a reinforcing signal. Profit combines revenue, cost, and operating-leverage effects. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_179", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS, INC. (PARR)'s FY2020-FY2023 return on assets path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about inflation to forecast FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000821483-21-000018", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000821483-22-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000821483-23-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000821483-24-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000821483-25-000010", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 return on assets decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -21.26%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were -3.46%, 12.45%, 20.4%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “inflation” signal.\n- Explanation: return on assets moved from -3.46% in FY2021 to 20.4% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “inflation” disclosure is cautious, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Margin movement reflects pricing power and cost pass-through. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_180", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "At the FY2023 reporting date, what FY2024 change is implied jointly by RANGE RESOURCES CORP (RRC)'s historical return on assets and the inflation signal in MD&A? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-007606", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-22-001634", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-004687", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-018046", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-026789", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 return on assets decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -8.94%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 6.44%, 17.81%, 12.6%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “inflation” signal.\n- Explanation: return on assets moved from 6.44% in FY2021 to 12.6% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “inflation” disclosure is cautious, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Margin movement reflects pricing power and cost pass-through. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_181", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the inflation signal from ANTERO RESOURCES Corp (AR)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 return on assets, and judge the FY2024 direction. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001558370-21-001153", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-22-001283", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-23-001378", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-24-001162", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001558370-25-000864", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 return on assets remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of -1.76%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were -1.14%, 14.46%, 2.46%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “inflation” signal.\n- Explanation: return on assets moved from -1.14% in FY2021 to 2.46% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “inflation” disclosure is cautious, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. Margin movement reflects pricing power and cost pass-through. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_182", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP (BSX)'s FY2020-FY2023 operating-revenue YoY growth path with FY2023 MD&A disclosure about capacity to forecast FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000885725-21-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000885725-22-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000885725-23-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000885725-24-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000885725-25-000011", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 operating-revenue YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 17.61%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 19.92%, 6.68%, 12.29%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “capacity” signal.\n- Explanation: operating-revenue YoY growth moved from 19.92% in FY2021 to 12.29% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “capacity” disclosure is directionally neutral, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. The revenue path reflects the realization of volume, demand, and pricing. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_183", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Review DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD)'s four-year operating-revenue YoY growth record, then assess whether the FY2023 MD&A discussion of capacity supports continuation in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001666700-21-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001666700-22-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001666700-23-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001666700-24-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001666700-25-000005", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 operating-revenue YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 2.64%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were -18.36%, -21.83%, -7.29%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “capacity” signal.\n- Explanation: operating-revenue YoY growth moved from -18.36% in FY2021 to -7.29% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “capacity” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a reinforcing signal. The revenue path reflects the realization of volume, demand, and pricing. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_184", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Extract the capacity signal from ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P. (EPD)'s FY2023 MD&A, combine it with FY2020-FY2023 operating-revenue YoY growth, and judge the FY2024 direction. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001061219-21-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001061219-22-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001061219-23-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001061219-24-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001061219-25-000006", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 operating-revenue YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 13.08%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 50.03%, 42.59%, -14.56%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “capacity” signal.\n- Explanation: operating-revenue YoY growth moved from 50.03% in FY2021 to -14.56% in FY2023. The FY2023 MD&A “capacity” disclosure is directionally positive, creating a conditional or conflicting signal. The revenue path reflects the realization of volume, demand, and pricing. The narrative therefore changes confidence in extrapolating the historical direction." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_185", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "With the research cutoff at the FY2023 filing, do DANAHER CORP /DE/ (DHR)'s operating-profit YoY growth and operating-cash-flow margin reinforce or contradict each other, and what does that imply for FY2024? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000313616-21-000045", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000313616-22-000061", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000313616-23-000087", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000313616-24-000052", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000313616-25-000043", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 operating-profit YoY growth decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -6.52%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 76.44%, 16.38%, -40.12%; the secondary FY2023 value was 29.99%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “working capital” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while operating-cash-flow margin moved from 28.38% to 29.99%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Profit combines revenue, cost, and operating-leverage effects. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_186", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Build an evidence chain for STRYKER CORP (SYK) from historical metrics to management signal to FY2024 judgment, using both operating-profit YoY growth and operating-cash-flow margin. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000310764-21-000027", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000310764-22-000028", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000310764-23-000017", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000310764-24-000024", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000310764-25-000023", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 operating-profit YoY growth decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -5.12%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 16.24%, 9.95%, 36.85%; the secondary FY2023 value was 18.1%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “working capital” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric increased in FY2023, while operating-cash-flow margin moved from 19.07% to 18.1%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Profit combines revenue, cost, and operating-leverage effects. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_187", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine OMNICOM GROUP INC. (OMC)'s FY2020-FY2023 accounts-payable-to-revenue ratio, operating-cash-flow conversion, and FY2023 MD&A signal to forecast FY2024 and explain whether the evidence agrees. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000029989-21-000004", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000029989-22-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000029989-23-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000029989-24-000007", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000029989-25-000009", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 accounts-payable-to-revenue ratio remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of 0.39%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 83.26%, 76.98%, 79.18%; the secondary FY2023 value was 102.19%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “liquidity” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while operating-cash-flow conversion moved from 138.19% to 102.19%. The two indicators are reinforcing. Working-capital intensity can reveal collection, destocking, or supply-chain pressure. This relationship therefore raises confidence in continuation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_188", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "With the research cutoff at the FY2023 filing, do FMC CORP (FMC)'s accounts-payable-to-revenue ratio and operating-cash-flow conversion reinforce or contradict each other, and what does that imply for FY2024? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000037785-21-000024", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000037785-22-000025", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000037785-23-000019", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000037785-24-000033", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000037785-25-000030", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 accounts-payable-to-revenue ratio increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 4.67%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 22.5%, 21.58%, 13.43%; the secondary FY2023 value was -22.72%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “liquidity” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while operating-cash-flow conversion moved from 122.01% to -22.72%. The two indicators are reinforcing. Working-capital intensity can reveal collection, destocking, or supply-chain pressure. This relationship therefore raises confidence in continuation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_189", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Analyze GENERAC HOLDINGS INC. (GNRC)'s accounts-payable-to-revenue ratio and operating-cash-flow conversion through FY2023, then use the liquidity discussion in MD&A to test continuation versus reversal in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001437749-21-003793", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-22-004080", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-23-004153", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-24-005040", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001437749-25-004353", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 accounts-payable-to-revenue ratio increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 2.21%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 18.04%, 9.77%, 8.47%; the secondary FY2023 value was 243.08%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “liquidity” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while operating-cash-flow conversion moved from 74.69% to 243.08%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Working-capital intensity can reveal collection, destocking, or supply-chain pressure. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_190", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine EVERSOURCE ENERGY (ES)'s FY2020-FY2023 total-revenue YoY growth, accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio, and FY2023 MD&A signal to forecast FY2024 and explain whether the evidence agrees. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000072741-21-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000072741-22-000015", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000072741-23-000004", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000072741-24-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000072741-25-000007", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-revenue YoY growth remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of -0.08%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 10.77%, 24.6%, -3.08%; the secondary FY2023 value was 12.02%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “competition” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio moved from 12.43% to 12.02%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. The revenue path reflects the realization of volume, demand, and pricing. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_191", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Build an evidence chain for CENTERPOINT ENERGY INC (CNP) from historical metrics to management signal to FY2024 judgment, using both total-revenue YoY growth and accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001130310-21-000009", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001130310-22-000023", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001130310-23-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001130310-24-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001130310-25-000040", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-revenue YoY growth remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of -0.61%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 12.59%, 11.6%, -6.71%; the secondary FY2023 value was 8.16%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “competition” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio moved from 8.26% to 8.16%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. The revenue path reflects the realization of volume, demand, and pricing. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_192", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Analyze NUCOR CORP (NUE)'s total-revenue YoY growth and accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio through FY2023, then use the competition discussion in MD&A to test continuation versus reversal in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-009503", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-22-007679", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-23-002793", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-021195", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-028427", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 total-revenue YoY growth decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -11.46%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 81.15%, 13.78%, -16.38%; the secondary FY2023 value was 8.51%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “competition” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while accounts-receivable-to-revenue ratio moved from 10.56% to 8.51%. The two indicators are reinforcing. The revenue path reflects the realization of volume, demand, and pricing. This relationship therefore raises confidence in continuation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_193", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "With the research cutoff at the FY2023 filing, do AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC (AEO)'s gross margin and inventory-to-revenue ratio reinforce or contradict each other, and what does that imply for FY2024? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-012543", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-22-003587", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-007604", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-032294", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-042746", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 gross margin decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -4.77%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 35.33%, 30.54%, 39.75%; the secondary FY2023 value was 11.68%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “margin” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric increased in FY2023, while inventory-to-revenue ratio moved from 9.41% to 11.68%. The two indicators are reinforcing. Margin movement reflects pricing power and cost pass-through. This relationship therefore raises confidence in continuation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_194", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Build an evidence chain for MOSAIC CO (MOS) from historical metrics to management signal to FY2024 judgment, using both gross margin and inventory-to-revenue ratio. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001618034-21-000003", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001618034-22-000004", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001618034-23-000003", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001618034-24-000004", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001618034-25-000003", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 gross margin decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -2.55%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 25.9%, 30.1%, 16.14%; the secondary FY2023 value was 18.42%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “margin” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while inventory-to-revenue ratio moved from 22.18% to 18.42%. The two indicators are reinforcing. Margin movement reflects pricing power and cost pass-through. This relationship therefore raises confidence in continuation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_195", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine PPL Corp (PPL)'s FY2020-FY2023 operating margin, current ratio, and FY2023 Risk Factors signal to forecast FY2024 and explain whether the evidence agrees. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000922224-21-000006", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000922224-22-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000922224-23-000010", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000922224-24-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000922224-25-000009", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 operating margin remained broadly stable, with an actual ground-truth change of 0.95%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 24.62%, 17.39%, 19.61%; the secondary FY2023 value was 0.88x.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “demand” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while current ratio moved from 2.16x to 0.88x. The two indicators are reinforcing. Margin movement reflects pricing power and cost pass-through. This relationship therefore raises confidence in continuation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_196", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "With the research cutoff at the FY2023 filing, do PEABODY ENERGY CORP (BTU)'s operating margin and current ratio reinforce or contradict each other, and what does that imply for FY2024? Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001064728-21-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001064728-22-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001064728-23-000013", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001064728-24-000021", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001064728-25-000018", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 operating margin decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -11.22%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 13.02%, 27.73%, 21.73%; the secondary FY2023 value was 2.06x.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “demand” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric increased in FY2023, while current ratio moved from 1.93x to 2.06x. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Margin movement reflects pricing power and cost pass-through. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_197", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Analyze XPLR Infrastructure, LP (XIFR)'s operating margin and current ratio through FY2023, then use the demand discussion in Risk Factors to test continuation versus reversal in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001603145-21-000008", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001603145-22-000012", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001603145-23-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001603145-24-000005", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001603145-25-000006", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 operating margin decreased, with an actual ground-truth change of -34.72%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 23.83%, 16.27%, -2.6%; the secondary FY2023 value was 1.33x.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 Risk Factors contains the pre-forecast “demand” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while current ratio moved from 1.12x to 1.33x. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Margin movement reflects pricing power and cost pass-through. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_198", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Combine RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC (RJF)'s FY2020-FY2023 net-profit YoY growth, liabilities-to-assets ratio, and FY2023 MD&A signal to forecast FY2024 and explain whether the evidence agrees. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0000720005-20-000063", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000720005-21-000106", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000720005-22-000066", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000720005-23-000079", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000720005-24-000069", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 net-profit YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 18.92%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 71.52%, 7.56%, 15.24%; the secondary FY2023 value was 87%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while liabilities-to-assets ratio moved from 86.58% to 87%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Profit combines revenue, cost, and operating-leverage effects. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_199", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Build an evidence chain for Duke Energy CORP (DUK) from historical metrics to management signal to FY2024 judgment, using both net-profit YoY growth and liabilities-to-assets ratio. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001326160-21-000063", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001326160-22-000072", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001326160-23-000073", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001326160-24-000037", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001326160-25-000072", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 net-profit YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 59.24%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 183.81%, -34.75%, 11.41%; the secondary FY2023 value was 71.63%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while liabilities-to-assets ratio moved from 69.85% to 71.63%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Profit combines revenue, cost, and operating-leverage effects. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." }, { "id": "finance_en_predictive_200", "type": "mixed_numeric_text", "query": "Analyze Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)'s net-profit YoY growth and liabilities-to-assets ratio through FY2023, then use the pricing discussion in MD&A to test continuation versus reversal in FY2024. Answer in 80-150 words: start with a direct trend conclusion, followed by no more than three evidence bullets covering key data, MD&A or Risk Factors evidence, and a necessary explanation. Do not infer undisclosed causes or cite FY2024 disclosure as forecast evidence.", "instruction": "Use the specified historical filing data, trends, and management outlook to answer the question in the requested format.", "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001564590-21-004555", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0001564590-22-005714", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-23-002456", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-24-013370", "type": "financial_report" }, { "accession": "0000950170-25-021775", "type": "financial_report" } ], "ground_truth": "Trend conclusion: FY2024 net-profit YoY growth increased, with an actual ground-truth change of 50.87%.\n- Key data: FY2021-FY2023 values were 10.75%, 22.87%, -12.99%; the secondary FY2023 value was 79.05%.\n- Section evidence: FY2023 MD&A contains the pre-forecast “pricing” signal.\n- Explanation: the primary metric decreased in FY2023, while liabilities-to-assets ratio moved from 74.33% to 79.05%. The two indicators are divergent or mixed. Profit combines revenue, cost, and operating-leverage effects. This relationship therefore reduces confidence in a single-metric extrapolation." } ]