" أقوال رقم ٩٧٣١ "

حبيبتي ، إن بكيت أمامك
أسَيمنعك ذلك من رؤيتي كمحارب ..؟

My love, if I cry in front of you Will that stop you from seeing me as a warrior ?

"وليام فوكتر"

“语录第 9731 条”

亲爱的，如果我在你面前哭泣，这会让你不再把我视为一名战士吗？

亲爱的，如果我在你面前哭泣，这会让你不再把我视为一名战士吗？

“威廉·福克纳”

"Quote No. 9731"

My love, if I cry in front of you, will that stop you from seeing me as a warrior?

My love, if I cry in front of you, will that stop you from seeing me as a warrior?

"William Faulkner"


Каждый, кто обладает малейшей властью, злоупотребляет ей, чтобы показать свою значительность...

每一个拥有哪怕最微小权力的人，都会滥用它，以显示自己的重要性……

Everyone who has the slightest power abuses it to show their significance...


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Benfica's Di María reacts to investigation into illegal betting platforms
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Camilo Castelo Branco nasceu há 200 anos. Região Norte “desafia” portugueses a celebrar vida do escritor com “roteiro camiliano”

TSF广播新闻

卡米洛·卡斯特洛·布兰科诞生于200年前。北部地区“挑战”葡萄牙人通过“卡米洛路线”来庆祝这位作家的生平。

TSF RADIO NEWS

Camilo Castelo Branco was born 200 years ago. The North Region “challenges” the Portuguese to celebrate the writer's life with a “Camilian route”.


Zuordnung von Nutzungsbefugnissen an Daten sowie die konkrete Ausgestaltung der Zugriffsrechte muss an die konkreten Bedürfnisse der Vertragsparteien angepasst werden können. Staatlich verordnete Modellverträge und eine hierauf bezogene AGB-Kontrolle laufen Gefahr, frühzeitig ein den Interessenlagen nicht entsprechendes Korsett einzuziehen. Sie sollten daher nicht am Anfang einer solchen Entwicklung stehen.

Ⅴ. Schlussfolgerungen zum Handel mit nicht personenbezogenen Daten

Der Handel mit nicht personenbezogenen Daten erfolgt, soweit er stattfindet, bislang vor allem auf der Grundlage bilateral oder multilateral ausgehandelter Verträge. Die Einführung von „Eigentumsrechten" an Daten würde daran voraussichtlich nichts ändern. Auch der Umstand, dass es bislang relativ wenige Marktplätze für nicht personenbezogene Datensätze gibt, ist nicht auf das Fehlen von „Eigentumsrechten" an Daten zurückzuführen.

Das „private ordering" auf Datenmärkten, wie es derzeit in weitgehender Abwesenheit von dispositivem Gesetzesrecht zu beobachten ist, funktioniert nicht perfekt. Die Transaktionskosten sind vergleichsweise hoch. Verhandlungsungleichgewichte zwischen den Vertragspartnern können sich in einen ungleichen Zugriff der Vertragspartner auf Daten übersetzen.

Hieran würden „Eigentumsrechte" an Daten aber nichts ändern. Die eigentliche rechtspolitische Herausforderungen im Umgang mit maschinengenerierten, nicht personenbezogenen Daten liegt ferner nicht im rechtlichen Schutz einer faktisch ohnehin gewährleisteten Ausschließlichkeit, sondern in den Grenzen dieser Ausschließungsmöglichkeit (näher dazu unten, G.).

Zur Erleichterung des Handels mit Daten schlägt die EU-Kommission im Übrigen verschiedene Initiativen vor: Zu fördern sei die Entwicklung technischer Lösungen für verlässliche Identifikation, der Austausch von und differenzierter Zugang zu Daten, Watermarking, die technische Verankerung von Nutzungsbedingungen in Datensätzen sowie die Nutzung offener, standardisierter und dokumentierter APIs. Soweit diese Initiativen nicht mit der Einführung zwingenden Rechts einhergehen, bestehen keine grundsätzlichen Bedenken. Allerdings ist im Einzelfall zu prüfen, wo ein Marktversagen und in der Folge ein politischer Handlungsbedarf identifiziert werden kann. Ist dies nicht der Fall, ist abzuwarten, welche Initiativen von den Marktteilnehmern entwickelt werden.

G. Neue Zugangsrechte zu Daten?

Die breit geführte Debatte über „Eigentumsrechte an Daten" stellt die Möglichkeit des Ausschlusses Dritter von der Datennutzung in den Mittelpunkt. Die rechtliche Ausgestaltung von Eigentumsrechten, und in besonderem Maße die Ausgestaltung von Immaterialgüterrechten, hat jedoch stets *auch* die Funktion, Ausschließungsbefugnisse mit Nutzungs- und Zugangsrechten Dritter in einen Ausgleich zu bringen. In einer Datenwirtschaft, die auf der faktischen, technisch getriebenen Möglichkeit zum Ausschluss Dritter vom Zugriff zu Daten basiert, können diese Schranken der Ausschließungsbefugnis

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77

数据使用权限的分配以及访问权的具体设计必须能够适应合同双方的具体需求。国家规定的示范合同以及与之相关的一般交易条款监管，存在过早引入与利益格局不相符的束缚的风险。因此，它们不应处于这种发展的起始阶段。

Ⅴ. 关于非个人数据交易的结论

就非个人数据交易而言，只要其发生，迄今为止主要是基于双边或多边协商达成的合同。引入“数据所有权”对此大概不会有什么改变。迄今为止非个人数据集的交易平台相对较少这一情况，也并非是由于缺乏“数据所有权”所致。

目前在任意性制定法大量缺失的情况下，数据市场上可观察到的“私人秩序”运作并不完美。交易成本相对较高。合同双方之间的谈判不平衡可能会转化为合同双方对数据的访问不均。

但“数据所有权”对此也不会有什么改变。在处理机器生成的非个人数据时，真正的法律政策挑战还不在于对事实上反正已得到保障的排他性提供法律保护，而在于这种排他可能性的限度（下文G部分将详细阐述）。

此外，为了促进数据交易，欧盟委员会提出了多项倡议：应推动开发用于可靠识别、数据交换和差异化数据访问的技术解决方案、水印技术、在数据集中以技术方式确立使用条件，以及使用开放、标准化和有文档记录的应用程序接口。只要这些倡议不伴随强行法的引入，就不存在根本性顾虑。不过，在个别情况下需要审视，在哪里可以识别出市场失灵以及随之而来的政治行动需求。如果不是这种情况，就要观望市场参与者会开发哪些倡议。

G. 新的数据访问权？

关于“数据所有权”的广泛辩论将排除第三方使用数据的可能性作为核心。然而，所有权的法律设计，尤其是知识产权的设计，始终*也*具有将排除权与第三方的使用和访问权进行平衡的功能。在以事实上的、技术驱动的排除第三方访问数据的可能性为基础的数据经济中，这种排除权的限制

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77

The allocation of data usage rights as well as the specific design of access rights must be adaptable to the concrete needs of the contracting parties. State-mandated model contracts and an associated control of General Terms and Conditions run the risk of prematurely imposing a framework that does not align with the interests involved. They should therefore not be at the beginning of such a development.

Ⅴ. Conclusions on Trading in Non-Personal Data

Trade in non-personal data, to the extent it occurs, has so far primarily taken place on the basis of bilaterally or multilaterally negotiated contracts. The introduction of “property rights” to data would likely not change this. Also, the fact that there are currently relatively few marketplaces for non-personal datasets is not attributable to the lack of “property rights” to data.

“Private ordering” in data markets, as can currently be observed in the widespread absence of non-mandatory statutory law, does not function perfectly. Transaction costs are comparatively high. Imbalances in bargaining power between contracting parties can translate into unequal access to data by the contracting parties.

However, “property rights” to data would not change this. Furthermore, the actual legal policy challenges in dealing with machine-generated, non-personal data do not lie in the legal protection of an exclusivity that is de facto already guaranteed, but rather in the limits of this possibility of exclusion (more on this below, G.).

To facilitate data trading, the EU Commission also proposes various initiatives: The development of technical solutions for reliable identification, the exchange of and differentiated access to data, watermarking, the technical embedding of usage conditions in datasets, and the use of open, standardized, and documented APIs should be promoted. As long as these initiatives are not accompanied by the introduction of mandatory law, there are no fundamental concerns. However, it must be examined on a case-by-case basis where market failure and, consequently, a need for political action can be identified. If this is not the case, it remains to be seen which initiatives will be developed by market participants.

G. New Access Rights to Data?

The broad debate on “property rights to data” focuses on the possibility of excluding third parties from data use. However, the legal design of property rights, and particularly the design of intellectual property rights, always *also* has the function of balancing powers of exclusion with the usage and access rights of third parties. In a data economy based on the de facto, technically driven possibility of excluding third parties from data access, these limits to the power of exclusion can

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77


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69 第四章 女性はいま立ちあがりつつある（一）

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日本で良妻賢母主義を猿真似$ ^{さるまね} $でなく、ほとんど宗教的にまで信奉して実践し、体現した人に鳩山春子（文久元年（一八六一）——昭和一三年（一九三八））がある。そして鳩山春子の成功（伝統のない日本での成功はきわめて局限された成功ではあるが）は、その夫鳩山和夫のキリスト教的・ヨーロッパ的教養と人格とに負うところが多い。鳩山和夫は前記のように、アメリカ留学中、これこそ本場の良妻賢母型のアボット夫人に手あつい世話をうけ、その高い教養と篤信とから形づくられている温和で優美な人格に強く動かされたので、帰国後かれが強く自己の結婚条件としたことは、そのころ日本婦人が一般に欠いていた「学問」であった。学問ある少女――これが青年鳩山和夫にとって唯一$ ^{ゆいつ} $の若々しい希望で あったといえる。

 　 鳩山春子が選ばれた理由もそこにあった。鳩山春子は前にみたように、日本で最初の文部省直轄の東京女学校（竹橋女学校）に学んだ才女で、英学を能$ ^{よ} $くし、あわせて父について漢学をも究めていた。

 　鳩山春子の父は松本藩士の多賀努という人で、廃藩直前まで藩の大参事をつとめ、廃藩後は政府の役人となり、家族を故郷に残してひとりで東京に住んでいた。子女の教育に熱心な人で、しかも進歩的な頭脳の持主であったが、ただ一般の俗にしたがって妻に対しては暴君であり、一顧をも与えず、子女の教育等についても、事前的にも事後的にも妻の口入を許さず、また必要ともしなかった。

 　鳩山春子はこの幼時の思い出を契機とし、こうした奴隷的家族制からヨーロッパ的良妻賢母的家庭制への向上を志し、それを一生の実践の基礎とも、教育事業の基本観念ともした（鳩山春子は明治一九年、宮川保全らの共立女子職業学校設立に参画して教鞭をとり、大正一一年、校長となり、昭和三年に共立女子専門学校を併置してその校長をも兼ねた）。

69 第四章 女性正在崛起（一）

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在日本，不是流于表面模仿$ ^{盲目模仿} $，而是近乎以宗教般的虔诚信奉、践行并体现良妻贤母主义的人，便是鸠山春子（文久元年（1861）—昭和十三年（1938））。而鸠山春子的成功（尽管在没有相关传统的日本，这种成功是极其有限的成功），很大程度上要归功于其丈夫鸠山和夫具有基督教色彩、欧洲风格的教养与人格。如前所述，鸠山和夫在美国留学期间，得到了真正典型的良妻贤母型的阿博特夫人的悉心照料，被她由高深教养与坚定信仰塑造出的温和优雅人格深深打动，所以回国后，他坚定地将当时日本女性普遍欠缺的「学识」作为自己的结婚条件。有学问的少女——可以说，这是青年鸠山和夫唯一$ ^{唯一} $的青春希望。

　鸠山春子被选中的理由也在于此。如前所述，鸠山春子是在日本第一所文部省直辖的东京女学校（竹桥女学校）求学的才女，精通英学$ ^{好} $，同时还跟随父亲深究汉学。

　鸠山春子的父亲是松本藩士多贺努，在废藩前一直担任藩的大参事，废藩后成为政府官员，把家人留在故乡，独自住在东京。他热心于子女教育，且头脑进步，但仅随世俗之风，对妻子如同暴君，毫不眷顾，在子女教育等事宜上，事前事后都不允许妻子插嘴，也认为没有这个必要。

　这段童年经历让鸠山春子决心摆脱那种奴隶般的家庭制度，追求欧洲式的“良妻贤母”家庭模式。她将这一理念作为自己一生的奋斗目标，也将其作为教育事业的基本原则。（鸠山春子在明治十九年，参与宫川保全等人创办的共立女子职业学校的教学工作，大正十一年成为校长，昭和三年在该校附设共立女子专门学校后，也兼任了专门学校的校长）。

69 Chapter 4 Women Are Now Rising Up (1) (69 第四章 女性はいま立ちあがりつつある（一）)

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One person in Japan who believed in$ ^{blind imitation} $, practiced, and embodied the "good wife, wise mother" principle, not as a mere imitation but almost to a religious extent, was Hatoyama Haruko (Bunkyū 1 (1861) – Shōwa 13 (1938)). And Hatoyama Haruko's success (though success in Japan, which lacked such traditions, was extremely limited) was largely due to the Christian and European education and character of her husband, Hatoyama Kazuo. As mentioned earlier, while studying in America, Hatoyama Kazuo received devoted care from Mrs. Abbott, a true exemplar of the "good wife, wise mother" ideal from its heartland, and was deeply moved by her gentle and graceful personality, shaped by her high level of education and deep faith; therefore, after returning to Japan, the condition he strongly set for his own marriage was "learning" , something Japanese women generally lacked at the time.An educated young woman—it can be said that this was the sole$ ^{the only} $ youthful hope for the young Hatoyama Kazuo.

The reason Hatoyama Haruko was chosen also lay there.  As seen earlier, Hatoyama Haruko was a talented woman who studied at Japan's first Ministry of Education-supervised Tokyo Women's School (Takebashi Women's School); she excelled in English studies $ ^{well} $ and had also mastered Chinese classics under her father.

Hatoyama Haruko's father was a man named Taga Tsutomu, a samurai of the Matsumoto Domain. He served as a senior councilor of the domain until just before the abolition of the domain system, and after the domains were abolished, he became a government official, living alone in Tokyo while his family remained in their hometown. He was enthusiastic about his children's education and, moreover, possessed a progressive mind; however, in accordance with common customs of the time, he was a tyrant towards his wife, paying her no heed, and in matters such as the children's education, he neither permitted her intervention, whether before or after decisions were made, nor did he consider it necessary.

Spurred by these childhood memories, Hatoyama Haruko aspired to elevate the family system from such a slavish one to a European-style "good wife, wise mother" family system, making this the foundation of her life's practice and the basic concept of her educational work. In Meiji 19, Hatoyama Haruko participated with Miyagawa Hozen and others in establishing the Kyoritsu Women's Vocational School, where she also taught; she became its principal in Taishō 11, and in Shōwa 3, she concurrently established the Kyoritsu Women's College, serving as its principal as well).


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106

Глава 4. Структурный анализ национальной экономики

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ный) поток, выходной (отрицательный) поток и чистый поток. Если анализируются потоки на временнóм горизонте, превышающем го-довой период, эти потоки должны дисконтироваться.

Вернемся к условиям нашего примера. Рассмотрим суммарные денежные (финансовые) потоки предприятия (рис. 4.1). На какой вопрос мы можем ответить, анализируя приведенные графики? Из рис. 4.1 видим, что чистый денежный поток, то есть превышение доходов над расходами, в восьмом месяце рассматриваемого перио-да отрицателен. Однако мы не можем определить, какие СЗХ вы-звали такое соотношение входного и выходного потоков. Для ответа на поставленные вопросы эти потоки нужно дифференцировать по стратегическим зонам хозяйствования. Результаты такой диффе-ренциации представлены на рис. 4.2 (Экономическая стратегия фир-мы, 2003). На основе анализа дифференцированных потоков можно совершенно точно сказать, что «провал» чистого денежного потока предприятия инициировала СЗХ-1. Вместе с тем в остальные ме-сяцы рассматриваемого периода СЗХ-1 дает наибольшую величи-ну денежных потоков. Выделяются два месяца, когда эти потоки

Рис. 4.2. Динамика формирования ЧДП по СЗХ

106

第4章 国民经济结构分析

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流入（正向）现金流、流出（负向）现金流和净现金流。如果分析的现金流时间跨度超过一年，则应对这些现金流进行贴现。

让我们回到我们示例的条件。让我们研究企业的总现金（财务）流（图4.1）。通过分析给出的图表，我们可以回答什么问题？从图4.1可以看出，净现金流，即收入超出支出的部分，在所研究时期的第八个月为负。然而，我们无法确定是哪些СЗХ导致了流入和流出之间的这种关系。为了回答提出的问题，需要按战略经营领域对这些现金流进行区分。这种区分的结果如图4.2所示（《公司经济战略》，2003年）。根据对区分后现金流的分析，可以非常准确地说，企业净现金流的“低谷”是由СЗХ-1引发的。与此同时，在研究期间的其他月份中，СЗХ-1的现金流规模最大。有两个月非常突出，当这些现金流

图4.2. 按照C3X划分的净现金流动态图

106

Chapter 4. Structural Analysis of the National Economy

---

inflow (positive) flow, outflow (negative) flow, and net flow. If the flows are analyzed over a time horizon exceeding one - year period, these flows must be discounted.

Let us return to the conditions of our example. Let us consider the total cash (financial) flows of the enterprise (Fig. 4.1). What question can we answer by analyzing the provided graphs? From Fig. 4.1, we can see that the net cash flow, that is, the excess of revenues over expenses, is negative in the eighth month of the considered period. However, we cannot determine which strategic business areas СЗХ caused such a ratio of inflow and outflow. To answer the raised questions, these flows need to be differentiated by strategic business areas. The results of such differentiation are presented in Fig. 4.2 (Economic Strategy of the Firm, 2003). Based on the analysis of differentiated flows, we can say with absolute certainty that the “failure” of the enterprise's net cash flow was initiated by СЗХ-1. At the same time, in the remaining months of the considered period, СЗХ-1 provides the largest amount of cash flows. Two months are identified when these flows

Fig. 4.2. Dynamics of NCF formation by C3X


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35

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35

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Abb. 3.22
Reale Konsumausgaben des Staats
Saisonbereinigter Verlauf

$ ^{a} $ Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorquartal in %.

$ ^{b} $ Zahlenangaben: Veränderungder Ursprungswerte gegenüber dem Vorjahr.

Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt; Berechnungen des ifo Instituts;

ab 4. Quartal 2018: Prognose des ifo Instituts.

© ifo Institut

waltung und zur Erfüllung rechtlicher Verpflichtungen erforderlich waren.

Zu Beginn des kommenden Jahres werden die expansiven Maßnahmen der Bundesregierung die Dynamik auf 2,1% beschleunigen (vgl. Abb. 3.22). Hierzu trägt neben Maßnahmen wie dem Pflegestär-kungsgesetz und der Parität in der Gesetzlichen Kran-kenversicherung auch die verbesserte Haushaltslage vieler Länder und Kommunen bei, die die Ausgaben-bereitschaft steigern dürfte. Im Jahr 2020 wird der reale Staatskonsum voraussichtlich mit 1,5% etwas schwächer steigen.

3.12. SONDEREFFEKT IN DER INDUSTRIE LÄHMT GESAMTWIRTSCHAFTLICHE PRODUKTION

Im Jahresverlauf 2018 hat sich die konjunkturelle Schlagzahl der deutschen Wirtschaft im Vergleich zum Vorjahr spürbar reduziert. Während die Zuwachsrate des preis-, saisonund kalender-bereinigten Bruttoinlandspro-dukts im Durchschnitt der ers-ten beiden Vierteljahre 2018 bei 0,4% lag, sank die gesamt-wirtschaftliche Produktion im dritten Quartal sogar um 0,2% (vgl. Tab. 3.11). Ursäch-lich hierfür war der Rückgang der preis-, saison-und kalen-derbereinigten Bruttowert-schöpfung im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe um 1,0%, der vor-wiegend einem Sondereffekt im Fahrzeugbau aufgrund des neuen WLTP-Prüfverfahrens geschuldet ist (vgl. Kasten »Zu den konjunkturellen Auswir-kungen der Probleme im Fahrzeugbau«). Da es sich beim Fahrzeugbau um eine Schlüsselindustrie der deutschen Wirtschaft handelt, schlagen Sonderef-fekte in diesem Wirtschaftszweig gesamtwirtschaft-lich erheblich zu Buche. Darüber hinaus mussten die der Industrie nachgelagerten Wirtschaftszweige (bspw. der Verkehrssektor oder die Unternehmens-dienstleister) durch die Schwäche im Fahrzeugbau ebenfalls Wertschöpfungseinbußen hinnehmen. Sta-bilisierend für die deutsche Wirtschaft wirkten das Baugewerbe (+1,2%) und der Bereich Information und Kommunikation (+0,8%). Den Rückgang bei der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion hatte das ifo Institut in seiner Herbstprognose nicht eingestellt und war weiterhin von einer gesamtwirtschaftlichen Expansion ausgegangen. Diese Fehleinschätzung lag vor allem am Veröffentlichungszeitpunkt der Herbst-prognose des ifo Instituts, welcher unmittelbar vor

Tab. 3.11
Bruttoinlandsprodukt und Bruttowertschöpfung nach Wirtschaftsbereichen $ ^{a} $
Veränderung gegenüber Vorquartal in %

|  | 2018 |  |  |  | 2019 |
| :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: |
|  | Ⅰ | Ⅱ | Ⅲ | Ⅳ | Ⅰ |
| Bruttoinlandsprodukt   |   0,4  |   0,5  | -0,2 |   0,2 |   0,4 |
| darunter:
Bruttowertschöpfung der Wirtschaftsbereiche |  0,4   |  0,3   |-0,1 |   0,2 |   0,4 |
| darunter:
Produzierendes Gewerbe ohne Baugewerbe  | -0,4   |  0,2   | -0,6 |   0,0 |   0,4 |
| darunter:
Verarbeitendes Gewerbe | -0,4   |  0,4   | -1,0 |   0,0 |   0,4 |
| Energieversorgung, Wasserversorgung u.Ä. | -0,5   | -1,3   |3,3  |  -0,8 |   0,2 |
| Baugewerbe |  1,1   |  1,4   |1,2  |   1,0 |   0,8 |
| Handel, Verkehr, Gastgewerbe   |  1,0   |  0,2   |  -0,5 |   0,2 |   0,4 |
| Information und Kommunikation  |  1,4   |  0,3   |  0,8  |   0,6 |   0,7 |
| Finanz- und Versicherungsdienstleister |  0,1   |  0,5   | 0,3  |   0,1 |   0,1 |
| Grundstücks- und Wohnungswesen  |  0,8   | -0,3   |  0,2  |   0,3 |   0,4 |
| Unternehmensdienstleister  |  0,7   |  0,8   |  -0,5 |   0,2 |   0,5 |
| Öffentliche Dienstleister |  0,3   |  0,1   |   0,2  |   0,4 |   0,6 |
| Sonstige Dienstleister  |  0,1   |  0,6   | -0,1  |   0,2 |   0,1 |

$ ^{a} $Verkettete Absolutwerte, saison- und kalenderbereinigt

Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt; Ⅳ/2018 und Ⅰ/2019: Prognose des ifo Instituts.

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© ifo Institut

ifo Schnelldienst 24/2018 71. Jahrgang 20. Dezember 2018

61

数据与预测

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图 3.22
政府实际消费支出
季节性调整后的走势

$ ^{a} $ 与上一季度相比的变化百分比。

$ ^{b} $ 数据：原始值与上一年相比的变化。

来源：联邦统计局；伊弗经济研究所的计算；

自2018年第四季度起：伊弗经济研究所的预测。

© 伊弗经济研究所

管理和履行法律义务所必需的。

明年年初，联邦政府的扩张性措施将把经济增长动力加速至2,1%（参见图3.22）。除护理强化法案和法定医疗保险平等待遇等措施外，许多州和市政当局改善的财政状况也将对此起到推动作用，这有望提高其支出意愿。预计2020年实际政府消费增速将略有放缓，增幅约为1.5%。

3.12. 工业领域的特殊效应严重拖累整体经济生产

2018年全年，德国经济的增长步伐与上一年相比明显放缓，2018年前两个季度经价格、季节和日历调整的国内生产总值平均增长率为0,4%，而第三季度整体经济生产甚至下降了0,2%（参见表3.11）。其主要原因是制造业经价格、季节和日历调整的增加值下降了1,0%，这主要是由于新的全球统一轻型车辆排放测试程序导致汽车制造业出现特殊效应（参见专栏“论汽车制造业的问题对经济的影响”）。由于汽车制造业是德国经济的支柱产业，该经济部门的特殊效应会对整体经济产生重大影响。此外，工业下游的经济部门（例如交通运输部门或企业服务业）也因汽车制造业的疲软而遭受增加值损失。建筑业（+1,2%）以及信息和通信领域（+0,8%）对德国经济起到了稳定作用。伊弗经济研究所在其秋季预测中并未预见到整体经济产出会下滑，而是继续预计整体经济将扩张。这一错误评估主要归因于伊弗经济研究所秋季预测的发布时间恰逢

表 3.11
按经济部门划分的国内生产总值和增加值 $ ^{a} $
与上一季度相比的变化百分比

|  | 2018 |  |  |  | 2019 |
| :--| :--| :--| :--| :--| :--|
|  | Ⅰ | Ⅱ | Ⅲ | Ⅳ | Ⅰ |
| 国内生产总值 |   0,4  |   0,5  | -0,2 |   0,2 |   0,4 |
| 其中：
各经济部门总增加值 |  0,4   |  0,3   |-0,1 |   0,2 |   0,4 |
| 其中：
工业（不含建筑业） | -0,4   |  0,2   | -0,6 |   0,0 |   0,4 |
| 其中：
制造业 | -0,4   |  0,4   | -1,0 |   0,0 |   0,4 |
| 能源供应、供水及相关行业 | -0,5   | -1,3   |3,3  |  -0,8 |   0,2 |
| 建筑业  |  1,1   |  1,4   |1,2  |   1,0 |   0,8 |
| 贸易、交通、酒店餐饮业  |  1,0   |  0,2   |  -0,5 |   0,2 |   0,4 |
| 信息与通信业  |  1,4   |  0,3   |  0,8  |   0,6 |   0,7 |
| 金融与保险服务业  |  0,1   |  0,5   | 0,3  |   0,1 |   0,1 |
| 房地产与住宅行业  |  0,8   | -0,3   |  0,2  |   0,3 |   0,4 |
| 企业服务业   |  0,7   |  0,8   |  -0,5 |   0,2 |   0,5 |
| 公共服务业 |  0,3   |  0,1   |   0,2  |   0,4 |   0,6 |
| 其他服务业  |  0,1   |  0,6   | -0,1  |   0,2 |   0,1 |

$ ^{a} $链式绝对值，经季节和日历调整

来源：联邦统计局；2018年第四季度和2019年第一季度：伊弗经济研究所的预测。

---

© 伊弗经济研究所

《伊弗快报》2018年第24期，第71卷，2018年12月20日

61

DATA AND FORECASTS

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Fig. 3.22
Real Government Consumption Expenditures
Seasonally Adjusted Trend

$ ^{a} $ Change compared to the previous quarter in %.

$ ^{b} $ Figures: Change in original values compared to the previous year.

Source: Federal Statistical Office; Calculations by the ifo Institute;

from Q4 2018: Forecast by the ifo Institute.

© ifo Institute

were necessary for administration and the fulfillment of legal obligations.

At the beginning of the coming year, the expansive measures of the federal government will accelerate the momentum to 2.1% (cf. Fig. 3.22). In addition to measures such as the Care Strengthening Act and parity in statutory health insurance, the improved budgetary situation of many federal states and municipalities, which is likely to increase their willingness to spend, will also contribute to this. In 2020, real government consumption is expected to grow somewhat more weakly at 1.5%.

3.12. SPECIAL EFFECT IN INDUSTRY PARALYZES OVERALL ECONOMIC PRODUCTION

In the course of 2018, the economic momentum of the German economy noticeably decreased compared to the previous year. While the growth rate of the price, seasonally, and calendar adjusted gross domestic product averaged 0.4% in the first two quarters of 2018, overall economic production even fell by 0.2% in the third quarter (cf. Table 3.11). The reason for this was the 1.0% decline in price, seasonally, and calendar adjusted gross value added in the manufacturing sector, which was primarily due to a special effect in vehicle manufacturing resulting from the new WLTP testing procedure (cf. box "On the economic impact of the problems in vehicle manufacturing"). As vehicle manufacturing is a key industry in the German economy, special effects in this sector have a considerable impact on the overall economy. Furthermore, downstream sectors of industry (e.g., the transport sector or business service providers) also suffered losses in value added due to the weakness in vehicle manufacturing. The construction sector (+1.2%) and the information and communication sector (+0.8%) had a stabilizing effect on the German economy. The ifo Institute had not factored the decline in overall economic production in its autumn forecast and had continued to assume an overall economic expansion. This misjudgment was primarily due to the publication date of the ifo Institute's autumn forecast, which was immediately before

Table 3.11
Gross Domestic Product and Gross Value Added by Economic Sector $ ^{a} $
Change from previous quarter in %

|  | 2018 |  |  |  | 2019 |
| :--| :--| :--| :--| :--| :--|
|  | Ⅰ | Ⅱ | Ⅲ | Ⅳ | Ⅰ |
| Gross Domestic Product  |   0,4  |   0,5  | -0,2 |   0,2 |   0,4 |
| of which:
Gross Value Added of Economic Sectors |  0,4   |  0,3   |-0,1 |   0,2 |   0,4 |
| of which:
Industry excluding Construction | -0,4   |  0,2   | -0,6 |   0,0 |   0,4 |
| of which:
Manufacturing | -0,4   |  0,4   | -1,0 |   0,0 |   0,4 |
| Energy Supply, Water Supply and Related Activities | -0,5   | -1,3   |3,3  |  -0,8 |   0,2 |
| Construction |  1,1   |  1,4   |1,2  |   1,0 |   0,8 |
| Trade, Transport, Accommodation & Food Services  |  1,0   |  0,2   |  -0,5 |   0,2 |   0,4 |
| Information and Communication  |  1,4   |  0,3   |  0,8  |   0,6 |   0,7 |
| Financial and Insurance Services |  0,1   |  0,5   | 0,3  |   0,1 |   0,1 |
| Real Estate and Housing Services |  0,8   | -0,3   |  0,2  |   0,3 |   0,4 |
| Business Services |  0,7   |  0,8   |  -0,5 |   0,2 |   0,5 |
| Public Services |  0,3   |  0,1   |   0,2  |   0,4 |   0,6 |
| Other Services |  0,1   |  0,6   | -0,1  |   0,2 |   0,1 |

$ ^{a} $Chain-linked absolute values, seasonally and calendar adjusted

Source: Federal Statistical Office; Ⅳ/2018 and Ⅰ/2019: Forecast by the ifo Institute.

---

© ifo Institute

ifo Schnelldienst 24/2018, Volume 71, December 20, 2018

61


30

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# B. Flechtenanalysen und Temperatur- und Nährstoff-ansprüche der Flechtenbildner

## *1. Baeomyces byssoides(L.) Schwer. (Flechte 27)*

*a)* Herkunft der untersuchten Flechte.

An einer Wegböschung beim Rinderweidhorn fand ich Ende Sep-tember auf zirka 1100 m ü. M. über Erde und Wurzeln ausgebreitet schöne Thalli von *Baeomyces*. Es schien wertvoll, den Pilz in Kultur mit *Cladoniomyces* vergleichen zu können, um wenn möglich für die Verwandtschaft beider Gattungen neue Anhaltspunkte zu erhalten.

*b)* Reinkultur der beiden Flechtenbildner.

*b₁)* Des Flechtenpilzes: Die Apothezien schleuderten reichlich Spo-ren, die in hohem Grade keimfähig und von Bakterien frei waren. So
bekam ich mit der Petrischalenmethode leicht Reinkulturen.

*b₂)* Der Flechtenalge: Da die Algen unter dem Mikroskop wenig lebensfähig aussahen, übertrug ich in diesem Falle 30 einzelne Zellen in Reagensgläser. Aus nur 5 Zellen entstanden Reinkulturen.

Die Flechtenalge von *Baeomyces* ist innerhalb des Thallus so eigen-artig deformiert, dass auch der Spezialist sie nicht mit Sicherheit einer Gattung zuweisen kann. Am kultivierten Material war zu erkennen, dass
es sich hier um einen Vertreter der Gattung *Coccomyxa* handelte.

*c)* Nahrungs- und Temperaturansprüche der beiden Flechtenbildner.

*c₁)* Des Flechtenpilzes: Auf Malzagar verfärbte der Pilz das Sub-strat im Nährstoffversuch (Tab. 1 und Tafel 3, Abb. 1, oben) in Kultur-nähe mit Farbe 696. Weisses Luftmyzel verdeckte teilweise das Braun
der Kultur, ebenso auf Peptonagar. Auf Glukoseagar und auf Knopagar
hat das Luftmyzel die Farbe 694.

Tab. 1 *Baeomycomyces byssoidis* (L.) (Stamm 27)
Wachstum nach 180 Tagen in Abhängigkeit vom Nährboden

| Nährboden | Durch-messer | Mittlerer Fehler | Höhe | Farbe |
|-----------|--------------|------------------|------|--------|
||mm|±|mm|
| Malz . . . . . . | 22,6 | 0,63 | 5 | 192 |
| Pepton . . . . . | 12,0 | 0,31 | 5 | 188 |
| Glukose . . . . | 10,4 | 0,42 | 4 | 696 |
| ⅓ Knop . . . . | 10,8 | 0,41 | 1,5 | 696 |

Bei allen Temperaturen (Tab. 2 und Abb. 2) laufen die Formen
der Kulturen gegen den Rand hin flach aus. Wie bei höheren Tempera-
turen wächst der Pilz auch bei 18° noch unter die Agaroberfläche; das

30

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# B. 地衣分析及地衣共生体的温度与营养需求

## *1. 棉绒粉枝衣 (地衣 27)

*a)* 所研究地衣的来源。

九月底，我在林德魏德峰旁约海拔1100米处的一处路堤上，发现了在土壤和树根上蔓延生长的漂亮的*粉枝衣属*菌体。将这种真菌与*石蕊菌属*进行培养比较，以便尽可能为这两个属的亲缘关系获得新的线索，这似乎很有价值。

*b)* 两种地衣共生体的纯培养。

*b₁)* 地衣真菌：子囊盘大量散播孢子，这些孢子萌发率高且无细菌污染。因此，我通过培养皿法轻松获得了纯培养物。

*b₂)* 地衣藻：由于藻类在显微镜下看起来活力不强，因此在这种情况下，我将30个单细胞接种到试管中。仅从5个细胞中获得了纯培养物。

*粉枝衣属*的地衣藻在菌体内变形得如此奇特，即使是专家也无法准确地将其归入某个属。通过培养材料可以识别出，这是一种*球藻属*的代表。

*c)* 两种地衣共生体的营养和温度需求。

*c₁)* 地衣真菌：在麦芽琼脂上，真菌在营养实验中（表1和图版3，图1，上部）使培养物附近的基质变色为696号颜色。白色的气生菌丝部分覆盖了培养物的棕色，在蛋白胨琼脂上也是如此。在葡萄糖琼脂和克诺普琼脂上，气生菌丝的颜色为694号。

表1 *棉绒粉枝衣菌*(菌株 27)
180天后生长情况随培养基的变化

| 培养基 | 直径 | 平均误差 | 高度 | 颜色 |
|-----------|--------------|------------------|------|--------|
||毫米 |±|毫米|
| 麦芽 . . . . .. | 22,6 | 0,63 | 5 | 192 |
| 蛋白胨 . . . .. | 12,0 | 0,31 | 5 | 188 |
| 葡萄糖 . . . . | 10,4 | 0,42 | 4 | 696 |
| ⅓ 克诺普 . . . . | 10,8 | 0,41 | 1,5 | 696 |

在所有温度下（表2和图2），培养物的形态向边缘逐渐变平。与较高温度下一样，真菌在18°C时也会生长到琼脂表面之下；这

30

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# B. Lichen Analyses and Temperature and Nutrient Requirements of Lichen-Forming Organisms

## *1. Baeomyces byssoides (L.) Schwer. (Lichen 27)*

*a)* Origin of the examined lichen.

At a roadside embankment near Rinderweidhorn, at the end of September, I found beautiful thalli of *Baeomyces* spread over soil and roots at approximately 1100 m above sea level. It seemed worthwhile to be able to compare the fungus in culture with *Cladoniomyces*, in order to obtain new clues about the relationship between the two genera if possible.

*b)* Pure culture of the two lichen-forming organisms.

*b₁)* Of the lichen fungus: The apothecia ejected abundant spores, which were highly germinable and free of bacteria. Thus, I easily obtained pure cultures using the Petri dish method.

*b₂)* Of the lichen alga: Since the algae looked barely viable under the microscope, in this case I transferred 30 single cells into test tubes. Pure cultures arose from only 5 cells.
The lichen alga of *Baeomyces* is so peculiarly deformed within the thallus that even a specialist cannot assign it to a genus with certainty. From the cultured material, it could be seen that this was a representative of the genus *Coccomyxa*.

*c)* Nutritional and temperature requirements of the two lichen-forming organisms.

*c₁)* Of the lichen fungus: On malt agar, the fungus discolored the substrate in the nutrient experiment (Tab. 1 and Plate 3, Fig. 1, top) near the culture with color 696. White aerial mycelium partially covered the brown of the culture, also on peptone agar. On glucose agar and on Knop agar, the aerial mycelium has color 694.

Tab. 1 *Baeomycomyces byssoidis* (L.) (Strain 27)
Growth after 180 days depending on the nutrient medium

| Nutrient Medium | Diameter | Standard Error | Height | Color |
|-----------------|----------|----------------|--------|-------|
||mm|±|mm|
| Malt . . . . . | 22.6 | 0.63 | 5 | 192 |
| Peptone . . . . | 12.0 | 0.31 | 5 | 188 |
| Glucose . . . . | 10.4 | 0.42 | 4 | 696 |
| ⅓ Knop . . . . | 10.8 | 0.41 | 1.5 | 696 |

At all temperatures (Tab. 2 and Fig. 2), the forms of the cultures flatten out towards the edge. As at higher temperatures, the fungus still grows under the agar surface at 18°; the


เฟสติวัลบีช ริมทะเล
งานนี้เข้าฟรี!! 4 จังหวัด

海滨沙滩节
本活动免费入场！！涵盖4个府

Beach Festival by the sea
Free entry for this event!! Across 4 provinces


СМОТРИТЕ НА
START

БЫВШИЕ

Яна — дочь влиятельного отца и пациентка клиники для наркозависимых.
Илья — психолог-консультант и бывший алкоголик, который помогает другим избавиться от зависимости.  Есть ли счастливое будущее для этих двух «бывших»?

敬请观看
START

过来人

雅娜——一位有影响力父亲的女儿，同时也是一家戒毒康复中心的病人。
伊利亚——一名心理咨询师，也曾是一名酗酒者，他帮助他人摆脱成瘾。
这两位「过来人」能拥有幸福的未来吗？

WATCH ON
START

THE EXES

Yana is the daughter of an influential father and a patient at a drug rehabilitation clinic.
Ilya is a counseling psychologist and a former alcoholic who helps others overcome addiction.
Is there a happy future for these two "exes"?


Kanaatimizce, konuya psikolojik ve etik etkenlerin dışında başka faktörlerin de eklenmesi gereklidir.

Ekonomik-mali faktörler dışında bireyleri vergi ödemeye ya da ödememeye yönelten faktörleri aşağıdaki gibi gruplara ayırmak mümkündür:

### 1.7.2.1. Psikolojik Faktörler

Bireylerin tutum ve davranışlarını belirleyen faktörlerin başında psikolojik algılamalar gelmektedir. Çok özet bir ifadeyle, vergileme ile algılama arasında çok yakın bir ilişki olduğu söylenebilir. Psikolojide algılama (perception) ya da çerçeveleme (framing) mevcut bilgilerimiz dahilinde karşı karşıya bulunduğumuz somut ve/veya soyut olayların ve nesnelerin farkına varma, zihnimize yerleştirme ve nitel ve/veya nicel olarak değerlendirme sürecidir. Yine psikoloji bilimi açısından bireysel davranışın bir stimulus (uyarı) bir de response (karşılık) mekanizmasının işlemesi sonucu oluştuğunu söyleyebiliriz. Vergiye karşı gösterdiğimiz tutum ve davranışlarımız, çoğunlukla onu nasıl algıladığımıza bağlı bulunmaktadır.

Ahlaki faktörler. Ahlak, insan ilişkilerinde “iyi” ya da “doğru” veyahut “kötü” ya da “yanlış” olarak adlandırdığımız değer yargılarını ifade eder. Ahlak insanlararası ilişkilerde nasıl davranılması (ya da nasıl davranılmaması) gerektiğini gösteren kendiliğinden oluşmuş (spontan) ve hazır bir değer yargıları sistemidir. Başka bir tanımla, ahlak, toplumsal yaşamda, belirli kişi, grup ya da toplum için belirli zamanda ve belirli bir yerde geçerli olan (ya da geçerli olması beklenen) değer yargılarının, örf, adet, norm ve kuralların oluşturduğu bir sistem bütünüdür. (Aktan, 2004) Hiç şüphesiz bir toplumun ahlak normları ile vergileme arasında bir yakın ilişkinin mevcut olduğunu söyleyebiliriz. Vergi ödemeyi bir ödev ahlakı olarak ele alan ve vergi kaçakçılığını ayıplayan ve kınayan bir toplumda bireylerin vergiye gönüllü uyumunun kendiliğinden sağlanacağı söylenebilir.

---

50

我们认为，除了心理和伦理因素外，还有必要在该课题中加入其他因素。

除经济-财务因素外，引导个人纳税或不纳税的因素可以分为以下几组：

### 1.7.2.1. 心理因素

心理感知是决定个人态度和行为的首要因素。简而言之，可以说征税与感知之间存在非常密切的关系。在心理学中，感知（perception）或框架（framing）是指在我们现有知识范围内，意识到、将具体的和/或抽象的事件和物体植入大脑，并进行定性和/或定量评估的过程。同样，从心理科学的角度来看，我们可以说个人行为是刺激（stimulus）和反应（response）机制运作的结果。我们对税收的态度和行为，主要取决于我们如何感知它。

道德因素。道德是指我们在人际关系中称之为“好”或“对”或者“坏”或“错”的价值判断。道德是一个自发形成的、现成的价值判断体系，它表明了在人际关系中应该如何行动（或不应该如何行动）。换句话说，道德是社会生活中，由特定个人、群体或社会在特定时间和特定地点有效（或预期有效）的价值判断、习俗、惯例、规范和规则组成的系统整体。（Aktan, 2004）毫无疑问，我们可以说一个社会的道德规范与课税之间存在着密切的关系。在一个将纳税视为义务道德，并对偷税漏税行为进行羞辱和谴责的社会中，可以说个人的税收自愿遵从将自发实现。

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50

In our opinion, it is necessary to add other factors to the subject besides psychological and ethical ones.

Apart from economic-financial factors, it is possible to group the factors that lead individuals to pay or not to pay taxes as follows:

### 1.7.2.1. Psychological Factors

Psychological perceptions are the primary factors determining the attitudes and behaviors of individuals. In a very summary expression, it can be said that there is a very close relationship between taxation and perception. In psychology, perception or framing is the process of realizing, placing in our minds, and qualitatively and/or quantitatively evaluating concrete and/or abstract events and objects we encounter within the scope of our existing knowledge. Again, from the perspective of psychological science, we can say that individual behavior is formed as a result of the functioning of a stimulus and a response mechanism. Our attitudes and behaviors towards taxes mostly depend on how we perceive them.

Moral factors. Morality refers to the value judgments we call “good” or “right” or “bad” or “wrong” in human relations. Morality is a spontaneously formed and ready-made system of value judgments that indicates how one should (or should not) behave in interpersonal relations. In another definition, morality is a whole system formed by value judgments, customs, traditions, norms, and rules that are valid (or expected to be valid) for a specific person, group, or society at a specific time and place in social life. (Aktan, 2004) Undoubtedly, we can say that there is a close relationship between the moral norms of a society and taxation. It can be said that in a society that considers paying taxes as an ethics of duty and condemns and censures tax evasion, voluntary tax compliance of individuals will be achieved spontaneously.

---

50


СМОТРИТЕ НА
START

Красавцы, что с первых минут дали интрижки.
Любовный треугольник превращается в многогранник?
Интересно посмотреть, что будет дальше.
@smyrnova_polina

Понравилось, что в сериале осветили тему домашнего насилия. Эпизод с девушкой с разбитым носом шокировал: «Я думала, он исправится».
@Lana_Thai

请看
开始

帅哥们，从一开始就制造了诸多悬念。
爱情三角要变成多角关系了吗？
真想看看接下来会发生什么。
@斯米尔诺娃_波莉娜

我喜欢这部剧突出了家庭暴力这一主题。那个鼻子被打烂的女孩的片段令人震惊：“我以为他会改的。”
@拉娜_泰

WATCH ON
START

The handsome lads have kept us in suspense right from the start.
Is the love triangle turning into a polyhedron?
Looking forward to seeing what happens next.
@smyrnova_polina

I liked that the series highlighted the issue of domestic violence. The episode with the girl with a broken nose was shocking: "I thought he would change."
@Lana_Thai


Phương Pháp Nghiên Cứu Kinh Tế

---

5.1 Các cấp độ của thông tin dữ liệu

Các nguồn thông tin thường được chia theo ba cấp độ: (1) sơ cấp; (2) thứ cấp và (3) tam cấp.

Dữ liệu sơ cấp (primary data) là các kết quả nguyên thủy của các nghiên cứu hoặc các dữ liệu thô chưa được giải thích hoặc phát biểu đại diện cho một quan điểm hoặc vị trí chính thức nào đó.

Dữ liệu sơ cấp hầu hết có căn cứ dịch xác vì các thông tin này chưa được lọc hoặc diễn giải bởi một người thứ hai. Nguồn dữ liệu sơ cấp thường là các số liệu ghi nhận trong nghiên cứu, các số liệu cá nhân, các bảng số liệu thô được mua, các bảng, biểu đồ số liệu thống kê.

Dữ liệu thứ cấp (secondary data) là các thông tin diễn dịch, giải thích của các dữ liệu sơ cấp. Trên thực tế, hầu hết các dữ liệu tham khảo đều thuộc nhóm này.

Dữ liệu tam cấp (tertiary sources) cũng có thể là các thông tin diễn dịch, giải thích của các dữ liệu thứ cấp, nhưng thông thường là các chỉ mục (indexes), danh mục tài liệu tham khảo (bibliographies), và các nguồn trợ giúp tìm kiếm thông tin khác, ví dụ các trang Web tìm kiếm thông tin Internet (Internet search engine).

5.2 Các dạng nguồn thông tin

Có 5 dạng nguồn thông tin quan trọng thường được các nhà nghiên cứu sử dụng.

(1) Các Chỉ mục (Indexes) và Danh mục Tài liệu tham khảo (Bibliographies) là nguồn tìm kiếm thông tin thư viện chủ yếu vì chúng có thể giúp ta xác định được một quyển sách hoặc một bài báo đơn lẻ có liên quan trong hàng triệu tài liệu ấn bản. Danh mục tài liệu tham khảo đơn lẻ quan trọng nhất là catalog trực tuyến (online catalog). Danh mục này rất cần thiết giúp tìm kiếm tác giả, tựa sách theo chủ đề quan tâm.

(2) Từ điển chuyên ngành (Dictionaries) Ta sử dụng từ điển chuyên ngành để thẩm định các thuật ngữ hoặc định nghĩa của các thuật ngữ chuyên môn. Ngoài các từ điển chuyên ngành được in ấn, hiện nay có rất nhiều các từ điển và các chú giải thuật ngữ (glossaries) trực tuyến trên Internet.

Ví dụ: *Glossaries of Financial Terms* của Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/glossary/index.cfm); Dictionary of Business and Management.

(3) Từ điển Bách Khoa Toàn thư (Encyclopedias)

Nên sử dụng Từ điển Bách Khoa toàn thư để tìm kiếm thông tin nền (background) hoặc thông tin lịch sử của một chủ đề nào đó, hoặc của một thuật ngữ, tên gọi nào đó. Từ điển Bách Khoa toàn thư còn cho phép ta mở rộng tìm kiếm khi chỉ ra các nguồn thông tin khác có liên quan.

-----18

Khoa Kinh tế Phát triển Đại học Kinh tế TP. Hồ Chí Minh

经济研究方法

---

5.1 数据信息的层级

信息来源通常分为三个层级：(1) 初级；(2) 次级和 (3) 三级。

初级数据 (primary data) 是研究的原始结果或未经解释或阐述以代表某种观点或官方立场的原始数据。

初级数据大多具有可靠依据，因为这些信息尚未经过第二方的筛选或解释。初级数据来源通常是研究中记录的数据、个人数据、购买的原始数据表、统计图表。

次级数据 (secondary data) 是对初级数据的解释性信息。实际上，大多数参考数据都属于这一类。

三级来源 (tertiary sources) 也可以是对次级数据的解释性信息，但通常是索引 (indexes)、参考文献目录 (bibliographies) 以及其他信息检索辅助工具，例如互联网信息搜索引擎 (Internet search engine)。

5.2 信息来源的类型

研究人员常用的重要信息来源有5种。

(1) 索引 (Indexes) 和参考文献目录 (Bibliographies) 是主要的图书馆信息检索来源，因为它们可以帮助我们在数百万份出版文献中找到相关的书籍或单篇文章。最重要的单一参考文献目录是在线目录 (online catalog)。该目录对于按感兴趣的主题查找作者、书名至关重要。

(2) 专业词典 (Dictionaries) 我们使用专业词典来查证专业术语或其定义。除了印刷版的专业词典外，现在互联网上还有许多在线词典和术语表 (glossaries)。

例如：芝加哥联邦储备银行的 *《金融术语汇编》* (http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/glossary/index.cfm)；《商业与管理词典》。

(3) 百科全书 (Encyclopedias)

应使用百科全书来查找某个主题、术语或名称的背景信息 (background) 或历史信息。百科全书还通过指出其他相关信息来源来帮助我们扩展搜索范围。

-----18

胡志明市经济大学发展经济学系

Economic Research Methods

---

5.1 Levels of Data Information

Information sources are often divided into three levels: (1) primary; (2) secondary, and (3) tertiary.

Primary data are the original results of studies or raw data that have not yet been interpreted or stated to represent any official viewpoint or position.

Primary data are mostly reliable because this information has not been filtered or interpreted by a second party. Sources of primary data often include recorded data from research, personal data, purchased raw data tables, and statistical tables and charts.

Secondary data are interpretations and explanations of primary data. In practice, most reference data belong to this group.

Tertiary sources can also be interpretations and explanations of secondary data, but they are typically indexes, bibliographies, and other information retrieval aids, for example, Internet search engines.

5.2 Types of Information Sources

There are 5 important types of information sources commonly used by researchers.

(1) Indexes and Bibliographies are primary library information retrieval sources because they can help us identify a relevant single book or article among millions of published documents. The most important single bibliography is the online catalog. This catalog is essential for finding authors and book titles by topic of interest.

(2) Specialized Dictionaries: We use specialized dictionaries to verify terms or definitions of specialized terminology. In addition to printed specialized dictionaries, there are now many online dictionaries and glossaries on the Internet.

Example: *Glossaries of Financial Terms* by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/glossary/index.cfm); Dictionary of Business and Management.

(3) Encyclopedias

Encyclopedias should be used to find background information or historical information about a specific topic, term, or name. Encyclopedias also allow us to broaden our search by pointing to other related information sources.

-----18

Faculty of Development Economics, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City


อลังการพญานาคสีรุ้ง
วัดพระธาตุหนองบัว อุบลราชธานี

宏伟的彩虹那伽王
乌汶府帕塔农布寺

Magnificent Rainbow Naga
Wat Phra That Nong Bua, Ubon Ratchathani


年から1981年の間の極めて短期間のできごとであった。彼らは，中部日本犬山地域の美濃·丹波帯や紀伊半島中央部および四国中央部の秩父累帯に分布するジュラ紀付加体を研究し，それらを構成する岩石·地層·化石の混沌とした産状を統一的に説明する詳細なデータと解釈を示した（松田ほか，1980，1981; Yao et al.,1980; 大和大峯研究グループ，1981）。特に，付加体の主要構成岩相であるチャートが過去の遠洋性堆積物であること，また混在岩相の礫と基質の年代に差があることなどを，詳しい地質図の作成と多地点からのコノドントや放散虫化石の抽出によって証明したことが重要な貢献であった。当時，高知大学にいた平朝彦らのグループによる四万十帯に関する研究も，ほぼ同時期に進行した（平，1981）。以下にその研究の骨子である，微化石に基づく付加体の解析方法の原理とその意味を説明する。

一般に付加体は，大陸性地殻から由来した陸源砕屑岩類のグループと，沈み込む海洋プレート表層に起源をもつ遠洋·半遠洋性堆積岩や塩基性火山岩類のグループから構成され，両者は，覆瓦状スラストシートやオリストストローム·メランジュといった形で複雑に混在して産する。しかし，これらの岩石·地層の間には，初生的な層序関係がある。それは，野外で直接観察されることもあれば，微化石の年代に基づいて復元されることもある。後者のグループは，海洋プレートが中央海嶺で生まれてから，最終的に沈み込み帯へもたらされるまでのプレートの旅行期間（大海洋中の移動）に形成·堆積したものであるため（図4），一般に広い年代幅をもつことが多く，層状チャートのような遠洋性堆積物は極めて低い平均堆積速度（約0.5g/cm$ ^{2} $/1,000年: Matsuda and Isozaki,1991）で特徴づけられる。一方，海溝域で堆積する陸源砕屑岩のグループは，海洋性岩石の上位に累重し（すなわちより若い年代を有し），非常に速い堆積速度と短い堆積時間を示すことが多い。このような付加体の構成岩石がもつ基本的なあるいは初生的な層序は，最近では海洋プレート層序（oceanic plate stratigraphy）と呼ばれており，現世の海溝域に達した海洋プレート上部の岩石·地層の累重関係とよく一致する（Chipping, 1971；Piper *et al*., 1973；Connelly, 1978；平, 1981；松岡，1984； Fergusson, 1985； Lash, 1985； Isozaki *et al*., 1990；Matsuda and Isozaki,1991）。海洋プレート層序は，付加体についての総合柱状図であり，付加体の構成岩石·地層の年代学的特徴をもっとも端的に表わしている。

標準的な海洋プレート層序の例を図4に示す。下位から上位に向かって，MORB組成の緑色岩（斑れい岩+枕状溶岩），遠洋性深海堆積物，半遠洋性堆積物，そして陸源粗粒砕屑岩類が順次累重する。この柱状図において，海洋性堆積物が陸源堆積物に整合に覆われる層準の年代は，付加体の形成年代を近似する。また一方で，遠洋性（+半遠洋性）堆積物の下限と上限との年代差で表わされる堆積継続時間は，海洋プレートが中央海嶺から海溝まで移動するのに要した時間を示す。また，この旅行時間は，中央海嶺で生まれた海洋プレートが，海溝に沈み込む（すなわち付加体を作る）時の年齢と読み替えることができる。従って，陸上に露出した過去の付加体についても，このような海洋プレート層序を解明すれば，どのくらいの年齢の海洋プレートが，いつ頃沈み込んで付加体を形成したのかということを知ることが原理的に可能となる。付加体を形成した海洋プレートの偶性をこのように特定できることは，特に，現在の地球表面に残存していない過去の海洋プレートによって形成された付加体の形成過程や当時のプレート古地理について言及できる点で大変重要である。

日本列島の基盤岩類の大部分は，過去の付加体によって占められているので，これらの分布をもとに具体的に地体構造区分を行なう際には，上述の海洋プレート層序（柱状図）が主要な判別基準になる。この柱状図の中で特に重要となる情報は，チャートなどの遠洋性堆積物の基底の年代と，それが上位の陸源粗粒砕屑岩類に覆われる層準の年代さらに両者間の年代差である。なぜならそれらから上述の付加体を作った海洋プレートの年齢と付加の年代が特定されるからである（図5）。この二層準を高分解能で年代決定する手段として，

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707

从某年到1981年间的极为短暂的事件。他们研究了分布于中部日本犬山地区的“美浓・丹波带”、纪伊半岛中部以及四国中部的“秩父叠带”中的侏罗纪增生楔，并针对构成这些增生楔的岩石、地层、化石的混沌产状，提出了能够统一解释的详细数据和解释（松田等, 1980, 1981; Yao et al.,1980; 大和·大峯研究小组, 1981）。特别是，他们通过制作详细的地质图和从多个地点提取牙形石及放射虫化石，证明了作为增生楔主要构成岩相的燧石是过去的远洋沉积物，以及混杂岩相的砾石与基质之间存在年代差异等事实，这是重要的贡献。当时，在高知大学的平朝彦等人小组关于“四万十带”的研究也几乎在同一时期进行（平,1981）。下面将说明作为其研究核心的、基于微化石的增生楔分析方法的原理及其意义。

一般而言，增生楔由源自大陆地壳的陆源碎屑岩类群，以及源自俯冲大洋板块表层的远洋-半远洋沉积岩及基性火山岩类群构成，两者以叠瓦状逆冲岩席、滑塌堆积体-混杂岩等形式复杂地混杂产出。然而，在这些岩石、地层之间存在原生的层序关系。这种关系有时可以在野外直接观察到，有时也可以根据微化石的年代进行恢复。后者岩群由于是在大洋板块从洋中脊诞生到最终被带到俯冲带的“板块旅行期间”（在大洋中的移动）形成和沉积的（图4），因此通常具有较宽的年代范围，像层状燧石这样的远洋沉积物，其特征是具有极低的平均沉积速率（约 0.5 克 / 平方厘米 / 千年：松田与矶崎，1991）。另一方面，在海沟区域沉积的陆源碎屑岩群，通常叠加在海洋性岩石之上（即具有更年轻的年代），并显示出非常快的沉积速率和较短的沉积时间。这种增生楔构成岩石所具有的基本的或原生的层序，近来被称为“大洋板块地层学”（OPS），并且与到达现代海沟区域的大洋板块上部的岩石、地层的叠置关系非常吻合（奇平，1971；派珀等，1973；康奈利，1978；平，1981；松冈，1984；弗格森，1985；拉什，1985；矶崎等，1990；松田与矶崎，1991）。大洋板块地层学是关于增生楔的综合柱状图，最直接地表达了增生楔构成岩石、地层的年代学特征。

图 4 展示了典型大洋板块层序的实例，自下而上依次为具洋中脊玄武岩（MORB）成分的绿岩（辉长岩 + 枕状熔岩）、远洋深海沉积物、半远洋沉积物，然后是陆源粗粒碎屑岩类依次叠置。在该柱状图中，海洋沉积物被陆源沉积物整合覆盖的层位的年代，近似于增生楔的形成年代。另一方面，以远洋（+半远洋）沉积物的底界和顶界年代差所表示的沉积持续时间，显示了大洋板块从洋中脊移动到海沟所需的时间。此外，这个旅行时间可以解读为诞生于洋中脊的大洋板块在俯冲入海沟（即形成增生楔）时的年龄。因此，对于陆上出露的过去的增生楔，如果阐明了这样的大洋板块地层学，原则上就有可能知道多大年龄的大洋板块在何时俯冲并形成了增生楔。能够这样确定形成增生楔的大洋板块的特性，尤其在能够论及由现今地球表面已不复存在的古大洋板块所形成的增生楔的形成过程以及当时的板块古地理方面，这一点非常重要。

日本列岛基底岩类的大部分被过去的增生楔所占据，因此在根据这些分布具体进行构造单元划分时，上述的大洋板块地层学（柱状图）成为主要的判别标准。在这个柱状图中特别重要的信息是：燧石等远洋沉积物底界的年代、其被上覆陆源粗粒碎屑岩类覆盖的层位的年代，以及这两者之间的年代差。因为从这些信息中可以确定形成上述增生楔的大洋板块的年龄和增生年代（图5）。作为高精度测定这两个层位年代的手段，

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707

This was an event that occurred over an extremely short period, from a certain year up to 1981. They studied Jurassic accretionary complexes distributed in the Mino-Tamba Belt of the Inuyama area in Central Japan, the central Kii Peninsula, and the Chichibu Terrane of central Shikoku. They presented detailed data and interpretations that coherently explained the chaotic occurrence of the rocks, strata, and fossils constituting these complexes (Matsuda et al., 1980, 1981; Yao et al., 1980; Yamato-Omine Research Group, 1981). In particular, their proof that chert, the main constituent lithofacies of accretionary complexes, is an ancient pelagic sediment, and that there is an age difference between the clasts and matrix of mixed lithofacies, achieved through the creation of detailed geological maps and the extraction of conodont and radiolarian fossils from multiple locations, was an important contribution. At that time, research on the Shimanto Belt by the group of Asahiko Taira and others at Kochi University was also progressing around the same time (Taira, 1981). The principles of the analytical method for accretionary complexes based on microfossils, which is the essence of that research, and their significance will be explained below.

Generally, accretionary complexes are composed of a group of terrigenous clastic rocks derived from continental crust and a group of pelagic/hemipelagic sedimentary rocks and basic volcanic rocks originating from the surface of the subducting oceanic plate. Both groups occur complexly mixed in forms such as imbricate thrust sheets or olistostromes/mélanges. However, a primary stratigraphic relationship exists between these rocks and strata. This can sometimes be directly observed in the field or reconstructed based on the ages of microfossils. The latter group (oceanic materials) is formed and deposited during the travel time of the oceanic plate (movement across the large ocean) from its birth at a mid-ocean ridge until it is finally brought to a subduction zone (Fig. 4). Therefore, it generally has a wide age range, and pelagic sediments like bedded chert are characterized by an extremely low average sedimentation rate (0.5g/cm$ ^{2} $/1,000 years: Matsuda and Isozaki, 1991). On the other hand, the group of terrigenous clastic rocks deposited in trench regions overlies the oceanic rocks (i.e., has a younger age) and often shows a very rapid sedimentation rate and short deposition time. Such a fundamental or primary stratigraphy of the constituent rocks of accretionary complexes is recently called oceanic plate stratigraphy (OPS) and closely matches the superpositional relationships of rocks and strata in the upper part of oceanic plates reaching modern trench regions (Chipping, 1971; Piper *et al*., 1973; Connelly, 1978; Taira, 1981; Matsuoka, 1984; Fergusson, 1985; Lash, 1985; Isozaki *et al*., 1990; Matsuda and Isozaki, 1991). Oceanic plate stratigraphy is a composite stratigraphic column for an accretionary complex and most succinctly represents the geochronological characteristics of its constituent rocks and strata.

An example of a standard oceanic plate stratigraphy is shown in Fig. 4. From bottom to top, greenstones of MORB composition (gabbro + pillow lava), pelagic deep-sea sediments, hemipelagic sediments, and terrigenous coarse-grained clastic rocks are successively superposed. In this stratigraphic column, the age of the horizon where oceanic sediments are conformably overlain by terrigenous sediments approximates the age of formation of the accretionary complex. Furthermore, the duration of deposition, represented by the age difference between the lower and upper limits of the pelagic (+hemipelagic) sediments, indicates the time taken for the oceanic plate to travel from the mid-ocean ridge to the trench. Also, this travel time can be reinterpreted as the age of the oceanic plate (born at the mid-ocean ridge) when it subducts into the trench (i.e., forms an accretionary complex). Therefore, for past accretionary complexes exposed on land, if such an oceanic plate stratigraphy is elucidated, it becomes theoretically possible to determine the age of the oceanic plate that subducted and when it formed the accretionary complex. Being able to determine the characteristics of the oceanic plate that formed the accretionary complex in this way is particularly important because it allows us to discuss the formation process of accretionary complexes formed by past oceanic plates that no longer remain on the Earth's current surface, and the plate paleogeography at that time.

Since most of the basement rocks of the Japanese Archipelago are occupied by past accretionary complexes, the aforementioned oceanic plate stratigraphy (stratigraphic column) becomes the main criterion for discrimination when performing specific tectonic subdivisions based on their distribution. Particularly important information within this stratigraphic column is the age of the base of pelagic sediments such as chert, the age of the horizon where it is overlain by terrigenous coarse-grained clastic rocks, and furthermore, the age difference between the two. This is because from them, the age of the oceanic plate that formed the aforementioned accretionary complex and the age of accretion are determined (Fig. 5). As a means of dating these two horizons with high resolution,

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707


11]

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' Карриер — индейцы лесной зоны Северной Америки из группы атапасков.Экономика каменного века

11]

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' 卡尔珀人 — 北美森林地带的印第安人，属于阿萨帕斯卡族群。石器时代的经济。

11]

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' Carrier — Indians of the forest zone of North America from the Athabaskan group. Stone Age economy.


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Harus bisa menerangkan fakta

Hipotesis merupakan salah satu elemen penting dalam penelitian ilmiah, khususnya penelitian kuantitatif. Pandangan yang mendukung pernyataan tersebut untuk menunjukkan manfaat atau kegunaan hipotesis, diantaranya yaitu:
Hipotesis sebagai alat kerja teoritis. Hipotesis bisa dilihat dari teori yang digunakan untuk menjelaskan masalah yang akan diteliti. Sebagai contoh, misal penyebab dan konsekuensi dari konflik bisa dijelaskan melalui teori konflik.

---

$ ^{98} $(Nazir, 1998)

METODOLOGI PENELITIAN EKONOMI DAN BISNIS ISLAM | 173

**每一项研究假设都以研究者在推测研究或实验结果时所做出的一项陈述。**该陈述是研究者从现有理论或先前研究成果中进行初步探索的结果。

3. 假设的特征与作用

根据纳齐尔所述，一个良好的假设至少具备以下6个特征：$ ^{98} $
必须陈述相关关系
必须符合事实
必须与科学相关，并符合科学知识的发展
必须是可测试的
必须简洁明了
必须能够解释事实

假设是科学研究（尤其是定量研究）中的核心要素之一。支持这一观点并展示假设作用或用途的见解包括：
假设作为理论工作工具。 假设可以从用于解释所研究问题的理论中得出。例如，冲突的起因和后果可以通过冲突理论来解释。

---

$ ^{98} $（纳齐尔，1998）

《伊斯兰经济与商业研究方法论》| 173

**Every research hypothesis is a statement made by researchers when they speculate on the results of a study or experiment.** This statement is the result of the researcher's initial investigation of existing theories or findings from previous studies.

3. Characteristics and Benefits of Hypotheses

According to Nazir, there are at least 6 characteristics of a good hypothesis, namely:$ ^{98} $
It must state a relationship.
It must be consistent with facts.
It must be related to science and consistent with the advancement of knowledge.
It must be testable.
It must be simple.
It must be able to explain facts.

A hypothesis is a crucial element in scientific research, particularly in quantitative research. Perspectives supporting this statement to demonstrate the benefits or functions of a hypothesis include:
Hypothesis as a theoretical working tool. A hypothesis can be derived from the theory used to explain the problem being studied. For example, the causes and consequences of conflict can be explained through conflict theory.

----

$ ^{98} $(Nazir, 1998)

ISLAMIC ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS RESEARCH METHODOLOGY | 173


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mi avete fatto gli auguri?

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07

高さ7m、幅30m、三方から河川が流れ落ちる姿は東洋のナイアガラと称され、滝つぼは昔から竜宮へ通じているとの神秘的な伝説も残るスポット。

吹割の滝

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07

高7米，宽30米，河水从三面飞流直下的景象被誉为“东方的尼亚加拉”，是一个流传着瀑布潭自古以来就通往龙宫这一神秘传说的地方。

吹割瀑布

名瀑

07

With a height of 7 meters and a width of 30 meters, the sight of rivers flowing down from three sides has earned it the title of "the Niagara of the East". Additionally, there remains a mysterious legend that the plunge pool has been connected to Dragon Palace since ancient times, making this a distinctive spot.

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1. Pelarangan Riba
2. Adanya pembagian risiko baik pemberi modal maupun penerima modal
3. Larangan melakukan kegiatan spekulatif
4. Kesucian kontrak
5. Aktivitas usaha harus sesuai semua. Seluruh kegiatan usaha tersebut haruslah merupakan kegiatan yang diperbolehkan menurut syariah. Dengan demikian, usaha seperti minuman keras, judi, peternakan babi yang haram juga tidak boleh dilakukan.

Jadi prinsip keuangan syariah mengacu pada prinsip rela sama rela (*antarddim minkum*), tidak ada pihak yang menzalimi dan dizalimi, hasil usaha muncul bersama hasil biaya, dan untung muncul bersama risiko. ³¹

B. Ruang Lingkup Kajian Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam

Salah satu tantangan terbesar dalam pembangunan ekonomi Islam adalah tidak adanya contoh aktual/empiris dari praktik ekonomi Islam. Saat ini belum ada kelompok masyarakat atau negara di dunia ini termasuk negara-negara muslim sekalipun yang mempraktikkan ekonomi Islam secara ideal. Kondisi saat ini belum ada praktik ekonomi Islam yang dilakukan secara komprehensif, yang ada hanyalah praktik-praktik parsial dalam beberapa aspek muamalah seperti jual beli, sistem perbankan, kontrak dan lain-lain.

---
³¹ (Nurhayati & Wasilah, 2011)

34   | Dr. Azharsyah Ibrahim, SE.Ak, M.S.O.M.

1. 禁止高利贷
2. 资本提供者和资本接受者均需分担风险
3. 禁止投机活动
4. 合同的神圣性
5. 商业活动必须合规。所有这些商业活动都必须是伊斯兰教法所允许的活动。因此，诸如酒类、赌博、被禁止的养猪业等业务也不得进行。

因此，伊斯兰金融的原则指的是双方自愿的原则（*antarddim minkum*），没有任何一方压迫或被压迫，经营成果与成本相伴而生，利润与风险并存。³¹

B. 伊斯兰经济与商业研究范围

伊斯兰经济发展中最大的挑战之一是缺乏伊斯兰经济实践的实际/经验案例。目前，世界上没有任何社会群体或国家，包括穆斯林国家在内，能够理想地实践伊斯兰经济。当前的情况是，还没有全面实践伊斯兰经济的案例，存在的只是在某些交往方面（如买卖、银行系统、合同等）的部分实践。

---
³¹ (努尔哈亚蒂与瓦西拉, 2011)

34 | 阿扎尔夏·易卜拉欣博士，会计经济学士，运营管理理学硕士

1.  Prohibition of Riba (Usury/Interest)
2.  The existence of risk-sharing for both capital providers and capital recipients
3.  Prohibition of speculative activities
4.  Sanctity of contracts
5.  Business activities must all be compliant. All such business activities must be those permitted according to Sharia. Thus, businesses such as alcoholic beverages, gambling, and pig farming, which are forbidden (haram), are also not allowed.

So, the principles of Sharia finance refer to the principle of mutual consent (*antarddim minkum*), no party oppressing or being oppressed, business proceeds emerging with costs, and profit emerging with risk. ³¹

B. Scope of Study for Islamic Economics and Business

One of the biggest challenges in the development of Islamic economics is the absence of actual/empirical examples of Islamic economic practices. Currently, there are no community groups or countries in the world, including Muslim countries, that ideally practice Islamic economics. The current condition is that there is no comprehensive practice of Islamic economics; what exists are only partial practices in several aspects of *muamalah* (transactions) such as buying and selling, banking systems, contracts, and others.

---
³¹ (Nurhayati & Wasilah, 2011)

34 | Dr. Azharsyah Ibrahim, SE.Ak, M.S.O.M.


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Phương Pháp Nghiên Cứu Kinh Tế

---

2.1 Dân số mục tiêu là gì?

Thông thường, khi chúng ta xác định vấn đề nghiên cứu và đặt ra câu hỏi nghiên cứu thì chúng ta đã dân số mục tiêu là gì rồi. Tuy nhiên, cũng có khi chúng ta vẫn chưa rõ ràng về dân số mục tiêu. Nếu chúng ta không biết rõ mục tiêu thì rất khó chọn mẫu phù hợp.

Ngoài ra, chúng ta vẫn có thể nhầm lẫn hoặc không biết chắc chắn là dân số bao gồm các cá nhân, hộ gia đình, gia đình hoặc là kết hợp các loại này.

Rõ ràng là đối với một nghiên cứu kinh tế thì việc xác định thành phần là một cá nhân hay là một hộ gia đình sẽ đưa đến các kết quả hoàn toàn khác nhau. Vì vậy, cần chú ý là ta phải xác định rõ khung phân tích, và khung hành động để chọn lựa đúng dân số liên quan.

2.2 Các chỉ tiêu (parameters) cần quan tâm là gì?

**Các chỉ số thể hiện cho dân số** là các chỉ tiêu mô tả tổng hợp (ví dụ giá trị trung bình, phương sai, v.v.) các biến số của dân số mà chúng ta quan tâm.

**Các chỉ số thống kê mẫu (Sample statistics)** là các chỉ tiêu mô tả cùng các biến số trên, nhưng không phải của dân số mà là của mẫu. Các chỉ số thống kê mẫu được dùng để ước lượng các chỉ số thống kê của dân số. Các chỉ số thống kê mẫu chính là cơ sở để chúng ta tham chiếu cho các chỉ số thống kê của dân số.

Tùy thuộc vào cách mà chúng ta đặt ra câu hỏi đo lường như thế nào (xem lại Hình 2.1, Chương 2), mỗi câu lại có thể thu thập dữ liệu ở các mức độ khác nhau. Mỗi mức độ khác biệt của dữ liệu lại sinh ra sự khác biệt về thống kê mẫu. Vì vậy, việc chọn lựa các chỉ tiêu cần quan sát sẽ thực tế quyết định kiểu chọn mẫu và cỡ mẫu.

Khi các biến số được đo lường với kiểu dữ liệu khoảng cách hay tỷ số (xem Chương 5), chúng ta sẽ sử dụng giá trị trung bình mẫu để ước lượng trung bình dân số, và độ lệch chuẩn của mẫu để ước lượng độ lệch chuẩn của dân số.

Khi các biến số được đo lường ở dạng thang đo danh nghĩa hoặc thứ bậc, chúng ta sẽ sử dụng các tỷ lệ của mẫu để ước lượng các tỷ lệ của dân số, và dùng chỉ số *pq* để ước lượng phương sai của dân số.

Trong trường hợp này, tỷ lệ của dân số sẽ bằng số lượng thành phần có trong dân số thuộc về một loại nào đó chia cho tổng số thành phần của dân số. Các đo lường tỷ lệ như thế này rất cần thiết cho dữ liệu danh nghĩa và được sử dụng rộng rãi cho các đo lường khác nữa.

Chỉ tiêu tỷ lệ thường dùng nhất chính là tỷ lệ phần trăm.

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66

Khoa Kinh tế Phát triển - Đại học Kinh tế TP. Hồ Chí Minh

经济研究方法

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2.1 什么是目标总体？

通常，当我们确定研究问题并提出研究问题时，我们已经明确了目标总体是什么。然而，有时我们对目标总体仍不清楚。如果我们不清楚目标，就很难选择合适的样本。

此外，我们仍可能混淆或不确定总体是包括个人、住户、家庭还是这些类型的组合。

显然，对于一项经济研究，确定其构成单位是个人还是住户，将会导致完全不同的结果。因此，需要注意的是，我们必须明确分析框架和行动框架，以便选择相关的总体。

2.2 需要关注的指标（parameters）是什么？

**代表总体**的指标是描述我们所关心的总体变量的综合性描述参数（例如平均值、方差等）。

**样本统计量（Sample statistics）**是描述上述相同变量的参数，但不是总体的，而是样本的。样本统计量用于估计总体统计量。样本统计量是我们参照总体统计量的基础。

取决于我们如何提出测量问题（参见第二章，图2.1），每个问题都可能在不同层面收集数据。数据的每个不同层面都会产生样本统计量的差异。因此，选择需要观察的指标实际上将决定抽样类型和样本量。

当变量以区间或比率数据类型进行测量时（参见第五章），我们将使用样本均值来估计总体均值，并使用样本标准差来估计总体标准差。

当变量以名义或序数尺度进行测量时，我们将使用样本比例来估计总体比例，并使用 *pq* 指数来估计总体方差。

在这种情况下，总体的比例将等于总体中属于某一特定类别的成员数量除以总体的总成员数量。这种比例测量对于名义数据非常必要，并且也广泛用于其他测量

最常用的比例指标是百分比。

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66

发展经济学系 - 胡志明市经济大学

Economic Research Methods

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2.1 What is the target population?

Typically, when we define the research problem and formulate research questions, we have already identified the target population. However, there are times when we are still unclear about the target population. If we do not clearly know the target population, it is very difficult to select an appropriate sample.

Additionally, we may still be confused or uncertain whether the population consists of individuals, households, families, or a combination of these.

Clearly, for an economic study, determining whether the unit of analysis is an individual or a household will lead to completely different results. Therefore, it is important to note that we must clearly define the analytical framework and the action framework to correctly select the relevant population.

2.2 What are the parameters of interest?

**Population parameters** are summary descriptive measures (e.g., mean, variance, etc.) of the population variables that we are interested in.

**Sample statistics** are descriptive measures of the same variables, but for the sample, not the population. Sample statistics are used to estimate population parameters. Sample statistics are the basis for us to make inferences about population parameters.

Depending on how we formulate the measurement questions (see Figure 2.1, Chapter 2), each question can collect data at different levels of measurement. Each different level of data generates differences in sample statistics. Therefore, the selection of parameters to observe will effectively determine the sampling method and sample size.

When variables are measured with interval or ratio data types (see Chapter 5), we will use the sample mean to estimate the population mean, and the sample standard deviation to estimate the population standard deviation.

When variables are measured on a nominal or ordinal scale, we will use sample proportions to estimate population proportions, and use the *pq* index to estimate population variance.

In this case, the population proportion will be the number of elements in the population belonging to a certain category divided by the total number of elements in the population. Such proportional measurements are essential for nominal data and are widely used for other measurements as well.

The most commonly used proportional measure is the percentage.

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66

Faculty of Development Economics - University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City


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ЧАСТЬ 11. Методика экономического обоснования землеустроительных решений

Глава V1. ЭКОНОМИКА ВНУТРИХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОГО ЗЕМЛЕУСТРОЙСТВА

§ 1. МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ ПОСТРОЕНИЯ СИСТЕМЫ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ

Для определения системы показателей экономической оценки проектов землеустройства необходимо учитывать:

структуру и стадии процесса производства, в котором организуется земля, начиная от территориальной организации процесса труда и кончая процессом воспроизводства общественно необходимого продукта на уровне хозяйства в целом;

роль земли на различных уровнях (стадиях) процесса производства, которая может выступать в качестве предмета труда, главного средства производства и пространственного операционного базиса;

перечень основных вопросов, подлежащих обоснованию в различных составных частях и по элементам проектов землеустройства.

Если расчленить процесс производства каждого сельскохозяйственного предприятия на стадии (уровни, структурные составляющие), то он состоит из производства вообще, отраслей производства и отдельных производственных процессов.

Целью производства вообще является производство общественно необходимого продукта, определяемого производственной программой хозяйства и требованиями расширенного воспроизводства. Поэтому время производства общественно необходимого продукта согласуется со временем (периодом) воспроизводства в сельскохозяйственном предприятии и включает в себя все его стадии (собственно производство, распределение, обмен и потребление).

В результате функционирования отраслей производства создается готовый продукт, а время его производства совпадает с рабочим периодом

第11部分. 土地整理决策的经济论证方法

V1章. 农场内部土地整理经济学

§ 1. 指标体系构建方法论

为了确定土地整理项目经济评价的指标体系，必须考虑：

生产过程的结构和阶段，土地在其中被组织起来，从劳动过程的地域组织开始，到整个农场层面社会必需产品的再生产过程结束；

土地在生产过程不同层面（阶段）的作用，它可以作为劳动对象、主要生产资料和空间操作基础；

土地整理项目不同组成部分和要素中需要论证的主要问题清单。

如果将每个农业企业的生产过程分解为不同阶段（层面、结构组成部分），那么它包括一般生产、生产部门和单个生产过程。

一般生产的目标是生产社会必需产品，这由农场的生产计划和扩大再生产的要求决定。因此，社会必需产品的生产时间与农业企业的再生产时间（周期）相协调，并包括其所有阶段（实际生产、分配、交换和消费）。

生产部门运作的结果是创造出成品，其生产时间与工作周期相吻合

Part 11. Methodology for the Economic Justification of Land Management Decisions

Chapter V1. Economics of On - Farm Land Management

Section 1. Methodology for Building a System of Indicators

To determine the system of indicators for the economic evaluation of land management projects, it is necessary to take into account:

the structure and stages of the production process in which land is organized, starting from the territorial organization of the labor process and ending with the process of reproducing the socially necessary product at the level of the enterprise as a whole;

the role of land at various levels (stages) of the production process, which can act as an object of labor, a main means of production, and a spatial operational basis;

the list of main issues to be justified in various components and elements of land management projects.

If the production process of each agricultural enterprise is divided into stages (levels, structural components), it consists of production in general, production sectors, and individual production processes.

The goal of production in general is the production of the socially necessary product, determined by the enterprise's production program and the requirements of expanded reproduction. Therefore, the time of producing the socially necessary product is coordinated with the time (period) of reproduction in the agricultural enterprise and includes all its stages (production itself, distribution, exchange, and consumption).

As a result of the functioning of production sectors, a finished product is created, and the time of its production coincides with the working period.


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accretionary complex may have been extruded and uplifted into low-P domain in fore-arc by buoyant subduction of the spreading ridge at the trench. Evidence of ridge subduction at that time is supported by reconstructed paleoplate motion and the coeval climax of arc-related Ry-oke magmatism associated with low-P/T regional metamorphism. Formation of older high-P/T blueschist nappes sandwiched between low-P units can be explained likewise. Subduction of major spreading ridges seems most critical for the episodic oceanward development not only of subhorizontal high-P/T nappes but also of continent side granitic belts. These observations suggest that a fundamental structure of a convergent-type orogen between continent and major ocean is formed by such episodic arrival of mid-oceanic ridges. From this perspective, four orogenic cycles are distinguished during 450 m.y. old geologic history of the Japanese Islands, *i.e.* Naumann orogeny (450-300 Ma), Kobayashi orogeny (300-220 Ma), Miyashiro orogeny (220-75Ma), and Kanmera orogeny (75 Ma-present) named after four great geologists in Japan. These four orogenies correspond to the subduction of four major oceanic plates, i.e. the oldest unn-amed plate, Farallon plate, Izanagi-Kula plate, and Pacific plate. These orogenies are dema-rcated by episodic arrival of mid-oceanic ridges at the East Asian continental margin. As the Miyashiro orogeny, featuring the well-known Cretaceous paired metamorphic belts, is best doc-umented not only by on-land geology but also by paleoplate motion in the Pacific, a new general concept designated "Miyashiro-type orogeny" is proposed for the total geologic processes induced by subduction of a major oceanic plate beneath continental margin. In addi-tion, a historical review on the studies on orogeny in Japan is briefly given with special emp-hasis on the dramatic progress in 1980 s.

Ⅰ. はじめに

ある特定地域の地体構造論ないし地体構造区分は，本来その地域の地質構造発達史の理解と不可分の関係にあり，また一方で，それらが議論された時点において支配的であった地質観を反映しているといえるであろう。例えば，現在フィリピン海プレートおよび太平洋プレートと接し，活動的島弧-海溝系をなす日本列島は，過去数億年の 間も同様に大陸と海洋の間で成長してきた造山帯であるが，これまで様々に議論されてきたその地体構造論はつねにその当時の造山運動の理解と表裏一体の関係にあった。日本では1970年代中頃に，かっての地向斜造山論から，プレートテクトニクスに基づく造山論（以下ではプレート造山論と略記する）へと大きなパラダイム変換がおこり，それ以降新しい地質観のもとで研究データや解釈が次々と出されるようになった。そのような流れの中で，地向斜造山論が盛んな頃に大綱が作られ，それ以降伝統的に踏襲されてきた日本列島の地体構造区分に，多くの矛盾した問題点があること，また大きな変更が必要であることが認識されるようになった。例えば，従来の地体構造区分からの主要な変更理由として次のようなものが挙げられるであろう。（1）かって優地向斜堆積物とされてきた地質体が過去の付加コンプレックスであることが判明し，その形成年代が正確に決定されるようになった。（2）詳しい年代測定によって正確に定義された変成帯の時空分布と，従来の岩相分布や変成分帯のみに基づいて引いた変成帯区分とが一致しないことが判明した。（3）日本列島の大構造が，従来推定されていた高角度断層ではなく，低角度断層群で支配されていることが解明され，巨大な地窓やクリッペの存在なども認識された。これらの新しいデータが得られたことに伴って，伝統的な地質体の区分方法，地質体名称，更に地体構造境界の位置·形態などが各地において不適切となってきた。これらは，最終的には日本列島

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增生杂岩可能由于扩张脊在海沟处的浮力俯冲而被挤压抬升至弧前区的低压域。当时海脊俯冲的证据得到了重建的古板块运动以及与低压/高温区域变质作用相关的同期弧相关领家岩浆作用顶峰的支持。夹于低压单元之间的较老的高压/低温蓝片岩推覆体的形成也可以同样解释。主要扩张脊的俯冲似乎对于近水平的高压/低温推覆体以及大陆侧花岗岩带的幕式向洋发育至关重要。这些观测结果表明，大陆与主大洋之间的汇聚型造山带的基本结构是由洋中脊的这种幕式到达形成的。从这个角度来看，在日本列岛4.5亿年的地质历史中，可以区分出四个造山旋回，即瑙曼造山运动（450-300 Ma）、小林造山运动（300-220 Ma）、都城造山运动（220-75 Ma）和勘米良造山运动（75 Ma-至今），这些造山运动以日本四位伟大的地质学家命名。这四个造山运动对应于四个主要大洋板块的俯冲，即最古老的未命名板块、法拉隆板块、伊邪那岐-库拉板块和太平洋板块。这些造山运动以洋中脊在东亚大陆边缘的幕式到达为标志。由于以著名的白垩纪双变质带为特征的都城造山运动不仅通过陆上地质学，也通过太平洋的古板块运动得到了最好的记录，因此提出了一个名为“都城型造山运动”的新的一般概念，用于描述主大洋板块在大陆边缘下俯冲所引起的全部地质过程。此外，还简要回顾了日本造山运动的研究历史，特别强调了20世纪80年代取得的巨大进展。

Ⅰ. 绪论

某一特定区域的大地构造论或大地构造划分，原本就与该区域地质构造演化史的理解密不可分，同时，也可以说它反映了在讨论这些问题时占主导地位的地质观点。例如，现今与菲律宾海板块和太平洋板块相接、构成活动岛-海沟体系的日本列岛，在过去数亿年间同样是在大陆与大洋之间生长发育起来的造山带，而迄今为止对其大地构造论的各种讨论，始终与当时对造山运动的理解紧密相连，互为表里。在日本，20世纪70年代中期，发生了从以往的地槽造山论到基于板块构造说的造山论（下文简称板块造山论）的重大范式转变，此后，在新的地质观指导下，研究数据和解释层出不穷。在这样的背景下，人们逐渐认识到，在地槽造山论盛行时期制定、此后被传统沿袭的日本列岛大地构造划分方案中，存在许多矛盾的问题，亟需进行重大修订。例如，对传统大地构造划分进行主要修改的理由可列举如下。（1）过去被认为是优地槽沉积物的地质体，现已查明是过去的增生杂岩，其形成年代也得以精确确定。（2）通过详细的年代测定精确定义的变质带时空分布，与仅基于传统岩相分布和变质分带划分的变质带范围不一致。（3）日本列岛的宏观构造并非如以往推测的那样受高角度断层控制，而是受低角度断层群控制，这一点已得到阐明，并且也认识到了大型构造窗和推覆构造残片的存在。随着这些新数据的获得，传统的地质体划分方法、地质体名称，乃至大地构造边界的位置和形态等，在各地都显现出不适宜之处。这些，最终将对日本列岛
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— 698 —

accretionary complex may have been extruded and uplifted into low-P domain in fore-arc by buoyant subduction of the spreading ridge at the trench. Evidence of ridge subduction at that time is supported by reconstructed paleoplate motion and the coeval climax of arc-related Ry-oke magmatism associated with low-P/T regional metamorphism. Formation of older high-P/T blueschist nappes sandwiched between low-P units can be explained likewise. Subduction of major spreading ridges seems most critical for the episodic oceanward development not only of subhorizontal high-P/T nappes but also of continent side granitic belts. These observations suggest that a fundamental structure of a convergent-type orogen between continent and major ocean is formed by such episodic arrival of mid-oceanic ridges. From this perspective, four orogenic cycles are distinguished during 450 m.y. old geologic history of the Japanese Islands, *i.e.* Naumann orogeny (450-300 Ma), Kobayashi orogeny (300-220 Ma), Miyashiro orogeny (220-75Ma), and Kanmera orogeny (75 Ma-present) named after four great geologists in Japan. These four orogenies correspond to the subduction of four major oceanic plates, i.e. the oldest unn-amed plate, Farallon plate, Izanagi-Kula plate, and Pacific plate. These orogenies are dema-rcated by episodic arrival of mid-oceanic ridges at the East Asian continental margin. As the Miyashiro orogeny, featuring the well-known Cretaceous paired metamorphic belts, is best doc-umented not only by on-land geology but also by paleoplate motion in the Pacific, a new general concept designated "Miyashiro-type orogeny" is proposed for the total geologic processes induced by subduction of a major oceanic plate beneath continental margin. In addi-tion, a historical review on the studies on orogeny in Japan is briefly given with special emp-hasis on the dramatic progress in 1980 s.

Ⅰ. Introduction

The tectonic theory or tectonic divisions of a specific region are inherently inseparable from the understanding of the geological structural development history of that region, and it can also be said that they reflect the geological perspectives dominant at the time they were discussed. For example, the Japanese archipelago, which currently borders the Philippine Sea Plate and the Pacific Plate and forms an active island arc-trench system, is an orogenic belt that has similarly grown between the continent and the ocean for the past several hundred million years, and its tectonic theories, which have been variously discussed, have always been inextricably linked with the understanding of orogenic movements of each respective era. In Japan, around the mid-1970s, a major paradigm shift occurred from the former geosynclinal orogeny theory to an orogeny theory based on plate tectonics (hereinafter abbreviated as plate orogeny theory), and since then, research data and interpretations have been successively produced under this new geological perspective. In this context, it came to be recognized that the tectonic divisions of the Japanese archipelago—whose general framework was established when the geosynclinal orogeny theory was prevalent and which have been traditionally followed since—contain many contradictory problems and require major revisions. For example, the following may be cited as major reasons for revisions to the conventional tectonic divisions: (1) Geological bodies formerly considered eugeosynclinal deposits were found to be past accretionary complexes, and their formation ages have come to be accurately determined. (2) It was found that the spatiotemporal distribution of metamorphic belts, accurately defined by detailed geochronology, does not match the metamorphic belt divisions drawn based solely on conventional lithofacies distribution and metamorphic zonation. (3) It was clarified that the macrostructure of the Japanese archipelago is dominated by low-angle fault systems, rather than the high-angle faults previously presumed, and the existence of large tectonic windows and klippen has also been recognized. Consequent to the acquisition of these new data, traditional methods of classifying geological bodies, the nomenclature of geological bodies, and furthermore, the location and morphology of tectonic boundaries, among other aspects, have become inappropriate in various regions. These issues, ultimately for the Japanese archipelago

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Seminar Penyelidikan Pendidikan 2017
Mac 20-22 di IPBL, Kuching, Sarawak

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338

教育研究研讨会 2017
3月20-22日于砂拉越古晋IPBL举办

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Abdul Rashid Jamain。2011。*乡村小学学生马来语读写技能问题研究。*《马来语教育期刊》，1(1): 1-1。

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338

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March 20-22 at IPBL, Kuching, Sarawak

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Ilham Husna binti Jamaluddin and Nordin bin Mohd. 2013. *Thematic Learning Approach in the TEBAS Method to Improve KVK Word Writing Skills Among Remedial Students of SK Bukit Chempaka.* PISMP Action Research Seminar 2013. Department of Education Science, IPG Dato’ Razali Ismail Campus.

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338


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