Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | this could happen is the subject of behavioral economic and environmental psychol ogy research. Grothmann and Patt (2005) examined the role of behavioral factors in people’s decisions to take precau tionary action against the risks of flooding and drought. In one part of their empirical study, they interviewed residents of Germany facing the risk of flooding from nearby rivers. From these interviews, they were able to assign values to a list of socio-economic and psychological variables associated with each individual, as well as to identify the self-protective behavior each individual had engaged in, activities such as moving electrical appliances to upper-level floors. Using re gression analysis, they found that the psychological variables—factors such as feelings of control, optimism, and fatal 5


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | these perceptions by providing accurate information will not necessarily be immediately effective. It has long been ob served that where any ambiguity makes it possible, people use new information to confirm, rather that disprove, their pre-existing beliefs (Lord et al., 1979), a pattern known as “confirmation bias.” The farmers who had participated in the workshops did not assimilate the workshop content—which included the information that pollution from outside the community was causing climate change—in such a way as to be increasingly skeptical of alternative explanations, but rather, apparently, to believe in their pre-existing beliefs more strongly. **4** **Discussion** Both the qualitative results from the workshops and the quantitative results from the questionnaire and household survey suggest that there are differences in perception between farmers and policy makers, of a type that could lead to policy failure such as that observed in Mozambique following the 2000 floods. The workshops suggest that farmers and policy makers differ in their desire to take action, versus staying with the status quo, related to how each group views the po tential for negative consequences flowing from action. The questionnaire results suggest that there are differences in the perception of relative likelihoods. Farmers view climate related


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **5.** **CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS** 43. The survey findings show that public awareness of the different consequences of climate change is quite high in Tajikistan (similar to prevailing levels in EU27 countries and Kazakhstan) and that a large majority of respondents are already affected by climate-related hazards. The key priorities for adaptation that emerged from the survey, i.e. investments in agriculture, improvement of water management and infrastructure (mainly electricity supply and irrigation), disaster management and improvement of public health system are in close conformance with Tajikistan’s development objectives and the latest PRSP 2010-2012. 44. Indeed, faster poverty reduction and economic development represent the best strategy for climate change adaptation as higher and diversified incomes and better access to quality public services and infrastructure increase the capacity of households and the economy as a whole for adaptation. It is important however to consider environmental sustainability and climate change implications in national and local development plans to ensure that achievement of short-term goals (in particular in areas like infrastructure investments, territorial development and the use of natural resources) does not increase the country’s vulnerability in the long run. 45. There are a lot of useful adaptation initiatives in Tajikistan. Many donors have funded projects


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **The World Bank** Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project (P166308) functionality, and an integrated RMNCHN dashboard and (b) enhance capacity of government officials at provincial, district, and facility levels in M&E. **C. Sustainability** 49. **The project ensures sustainability by taking a stepwise approach in implementing activities and** **strengthening the GoB capacity and sectors’ systems.** First, the project activities will be piloted in targeted districts and facilities so that the GoB will have the opportunity to learn from the initial implementation challenges and make course corrections before scaling them up, while focusing on the first two years on mitigating the impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Second, the project will support interventions that improve the efficiency and accountability of existing public systems and thus are expected to benefit the local population beyond the project duration. The project will also include mechanisms to ensure that the GoB allocates sufficient funds to support recurrent costs after initial investments to build and strengthen systems are made. Third, cognizant of the very frequent changes in leadership, activities focused on institutional strengthening will prioritize mid‐level managers and technical staff who are more likely to remain in their current positions over the project lifetime and longer. **IV.** **PROJECT APPRAISAL


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **The World Bank** Niger COVID-19 Emergency Response Projet (P173846) **whenever possible, extensive market engagement to identify suppliers from the private sector and UN** **Agencies** . The World Bank is coordinating closely with UN agencies that have established systems for procuring medical supplies and charge a fee which varies across agencies and type of service and can be negotiated (around 5 percent on average.) In addition, the Word Bank may help FCS-PIU access governments’ available stock. 53. **In providing BFP the World Bank will remain within its operational boundaries and mandate which** **already include expanded hands-on implementation support to help borrowers achieve the project’s** **development objectives** . Procurement for goods/works and services outside this list will follow the World Bank’s standard procurement arrangements with the Borrower responsible for all procurement steps (or with normal Hands-on Implementation support, as applicable). 54. **All procurement under the project will be undertaken by the “FCS-PIU” Unit** within the MoPH. The Procurement team comprises three procurement specialists who are implementing three projects supported by the World Bank under the old guidelines. Procurement risk of these projects are currently rated “Substantial” due to long delays observed in the procurement processes, specifically in the bids evaluation stage. 55.

Niger COVID-19 Emergency Response Projet

Niger COVID-19 Emergency Response Projet

Niger COVID-19 Emergency Response Projet

Niger COVID-19 Emergency Response Projet

Niger COVID-19 Emergency Response Projet

Niger COVID-19 Emergency Response Projet


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | often involving violent behavior by smugglers or other travel companions. - Survey shows that travelling with a group of non-family members is associated with a higher share of positive responses among children (12% compared to 8% of those who travelled alone) - 11% of interviewed children reported being forcibly returned at least once after having tried to move on from the country where survey was conducted (the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Greece, Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria, Albania, Montenegro, Kosovo (UNSCR 1244) Source: IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) Flow Monitoring Surveys Analysis (FMS) Endnotes: 1. Data on arrivals is partial due to the large scale of irregular movements and reflects only sea arrivals for Greece and Italy. Data for Spain include both sea and land arrivals. 2. Separated children are children separated from both parents, or from their previous legal or customary primary caregiver, but not necessarily from other relatives. These may, therefore, include children accompanied by other adult family members. Unaccompanied children are children who have been separated from both parents and other relatives and are not being cared for by an adult who, by law or custom, is responsible for doing so. (IASC) 3. Arrival figures for Greece are

IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix
Flow Monitoring Surveys

Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria, Albania, Montenegro, Kosovo

Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria, Albania, Montenegro, Kosovo


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | limited financial protection for households means that during the COVID-19 outbreak, many people may be pushed into poverty due to catastrophic health expenditures related to care seeking. Alternatively, many people may avoid or delay care seeking due to high out of pocket expenditures. This could increase the likelihood that the disease spreads within the community. 6 World Development Indicators. Accessed March 2020 from https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=worlddevelopment-indicators# 7 World Development Indicators, 2020. 8 World Development Indicators, 2020. 9 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Accessed March 2020 from http://www.healthdata.org/niger 10 Service Delivery Indicators, 2017. Page 10 of 34

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **The World Bank** Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project (P166308) in Urdu. [23] Within the Afghan refugee population ages 12 and above, only 33 percent are reportedly able to read and write, and female literacy is extremely low at 15 percent, compared to the male literacy rate at 50 percent. Afghan refugee children were also shown to have a much lower net enrollment rate compared to Pakistani children, 29 percent and 56 percent respectively. [24] 18. **Key factors that negatively affect learning outcomes, especially for girls, are limited access to** **education services, quality of inputs, and inadequate student learning assessments to monitor** **performance.** Currently, there are only 565 middle and 332 high schools for girls, compared to 830 middle and 675 high schools for boys, resulting in high female dropout rates after grade 5. [25] Of the total public schools, around 42 percent of schools have no water, 57 percent have no boundary walls, 71 percent have no toilet facilities, and 79 percent are without electricity—key factors contributing to students, especially female, dropping out from school. [26] Another major hurdle in attracting and keeping female students is the lack of female teachers. The low levels of education attainment and traditional social

Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project

Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project

Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project

Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project

Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **Figure 4: Awareness of Climate Change Causes and Mitigation Measures** **Personally, do you think you are well informed or not about...** **(a)** **The different causes of climate change** **(b)** **Ways in which we can slow down climate change** Source: Authors calculations based on P-LITS 2 data. Special EU Barometer 300/wave 69.2 **Climate Change Impacts of Greatest Public Concern** 18. Respondents were presented several possible adverse impacts of climate change, and were asked to choose (a) which of these were of concern to them, as well as (b) which of these was of greatest concern. “Increase in natural disasters” was cited as a concern by the highest share of respondents (78 percent), and as the most important concern by the second-highest share of respondents (25 percent), while “dangers posed by extreme hot/cold seasons that are harmful for health” were cited as a concern by the second-highest share of respondents (69 percent), and as the single-most 10

P-LITS 2
Special EU Barometer 300/wave 69.2


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | incorporated into the ESMF with ICMWMP. These guidelines include provisions to address the needs of patients, including the most vulnerable. They also include provisions on the establishment of quarantine and isolation centers and their operation considering the dignity and needs of patients. Further, the project will pay for training to be given to hospital staff and others, in handling and management of this type of waste. The already approved ESMF for the REDISSE 3 project will also be used to guide assessment and management of risks for the time period between approval of this Project and Project effectiveness, in a manner consistent with the Environment and Social Standards. 60. **An Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP) which was developed during project preparation and** **publicly disclosed on April 3, 2020, sets out material measures and actions, any specific documents or plans, as** **well as the timing for each of these** . The ESCP outlines the following environmental requirements: That the ESMF/ICMWMP be prepared no later than 30 days after the effectiveness period; that the environmental specialist and social specialist in the PIU for REDISSE 3 will be retained throughout Project implementation. Additional specialists needed especially for the implementation of the SEP


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | # **Sharing and learning on inclusion of** **aging and disability in the Syrian crisis** ## Introduction Over 9.3 million people have been affected by the conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, [1] with some 2.8 million seeking asylum in neighboring countries in the region and North Africa. [2] Host governments, as well as the humanitarian community, have scaled up their response over the last two years to meet the evergrowing and complex needs of displaced populations both inside Syria and the region. Research conducted by Help Age International (HAI) and Handicap International (HI) has identified that an estimated 22 percent of Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon have impairments. [3] Six percent have severe impairment, which may have implications for their specific needs in situations of displacement. Older persons constitute five percent of the Syrian community in host countries. [4] Some 58 percent of older refugees were found to have at least one impairment, with the rate of severe impairment being almost four times higher than in the overall refugee population. Findings from this research also highlighted some of the challenges in accessing registration and basic services, as well as the inclusiveness of available ser-vices addressing these needs of the


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | of the source water at the target facilities needs to be conducted as part of environmental assessment to ensure provision of safe drinking water and to avoid water poisoning. 65. **Considering the above potential environmental risks associated with the project activities, the** **project has been categorized as B and OP 4.01 (Environmental Assessment) is triggered.** In line with OP 4.01 and to assess the potential environmental and social impacts, the GoB has prepared (a) an Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) for construction‐related activities for health and education facilities and (b) an environmental and health care waste management plan (EHCWMP) for issues related to health care waste management during construction and operations. The EHCWMP incorporates the World Bank Group’s Environment, Health, and Safety Guidelines and Industry Sector Guidelines for Health Care Facilities. The ESMF includes adequate mitigation measures for the identified impacts, assesses the institutional capacity of the IAs, identifies capacity gaps, and proposes institutional strengthening measures for effective compliance of safeguards documents. The safeguard documents have been consulted upon, finalized, and cleared by the World Bank and publicly disclosed in country by the GoB on their website and on the external website of the World Bank on February 20,

Environmental and Social Management Framework

Environmental and Social Management Framework

Environmental and Social Management Framework

Environmental and Social Management Framework

Environmental and Social Management Framework

Environmental and Social Management Framework


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | parallel education system, the challenges confronting UNHCR were many. How would refugees transition from an Anglophone to a Francophone education system? How would equivalency between the two systems be established? How would refugees react to the Chadian system which did not include Islamic studies as the Sudanese system, or their history and geography? What resources would be required to implement a transition? And how would the to conduct a participatory assessment in all of the twelve camps. The assessment, conducted in June 2012, consulted refugees on a possible transition and allowed them to voice some of their concerns. It also addressed questions related to the prioritization of education needs and the capacity of the refugee community. The assessment highlighted mixed sentiments regarding a transition, with refugees in some camps favouring a transition, while refugees in other camps noted concerns related to certification, education quality, a loss of national identity, culture and religion. With the assessment report serving as the basis for further discussion, UNHCR held a series of formal and informal meetings with the MoE, CNARR – the entity responsible for refugees, UNICEF, UNESCO and education partners to present the assessment results, build consensus around a transition and outline the


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | US$17 million to US$18 million.** The calculation of discounted project costs follows the project disbursement schedule shown in the second column of table 1.2. 8. **Project benefits are operationalized as the number of maternal, neonatal, and under‐five** **deaths averted.** The project is expected to result in improved quality and higher rates of utilization of health services and hence better health outcomes for children in their teens and the general adult population. In line with the PDO, however, this CBA focuses on improvements in the health of mothers and under‐five children. Because reductions in morbidity are not accounted for (for example, from better 66 Robinson, L. A., J. K. Hammitt, M. Cecchini, et al. 2019. _Reference Case Guidelines for Benefit‐Cost Analysis in Global Health and_ _Development_ ; Robinson, L. A., J. K. Hammitt, and L. O’Keeffe. 2018. “Valuing Mortality Risk Reduction in Global Benefit‐Costs Analysis.” Guidelines for Benefit‐Cost Analysis Project, Working Paper #7. 67 Aart Kray. 2016. “Discounting Costs and Benefits in Economic Analysis of World Bank Projects.” Operations Policy and Quality Guidance Note. 68 The data are from the WDI database. No time series of GDP growth is available for Balochistan. Page 38 of 47


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | through results stages. Staff or partners conducting assessments should be guided to facilitate discussions that do not raise unrealistic expectations of communities. #### **Assessment tools** è è **ProGres:** UNHCR’s registration database _proGres_ provides age and gender disaggregated data for registered refugees of all ages. It is important that registration teams capture educational history (last school grade level completed; highest education qualification), and that age-and gendersegregated data is pulled from _proGres_ to calculate possible Net Enrolment Rates (NER), Gross Enrolment Rates (GER), and the likely number of over-aged children who require primary school access. Comparing existing enrolment data to registration data can also provide a preliminary OOSC estimate. 4 UNESCO (2015). _EFA Global Monitoring Report: Education for All 2000-2015: Achievements and Challenges_ . Paris: UNESCO. OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN IN REFUGEE SETTINGS **3**


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | Pandemic on Maternal and Child Mortality in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Ccountries.” _The Lancet Global Health_ . https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3576549 14 The Global Financing Facility. 2020. Preserve Essential Health Services During the COVID‐19 Pandemic: Pakistan. 15 Since 2014, the Government of Balochistan (GoB) has hired 659 medical officers, 497 lady medical officers, and 290 nurses, and the DOH recently announced the hiring of additional 158 medical officer posts (both male and female) to be recruited on a regular basis. Source: GoB, September 2019. 16 Planning and Development Department, GoB. 2013. _Draft Balochistan Comprehensive Development Strategy 2013–2020_ . TAP Workshop, Washington, DC. 2010. Extracted from: HOPE and TAP Study on Absenteeism in the Health Sector ‐ Pakistan. 17 Ameh, C. A., R. Kerr, B. Madaj, et al. 2016. “Knowledge and Skills of Healthcare Providers in Sub‐Saharan Africa and Asia Before and After Competency‐Based Training in Emergency Obstetric and Early Newborn Care.” _PLoS ONE_ 11 (12). 18 Technical Resource Facility. 2012. _HF Assessment ‐ Provincial Report_ . Page 9 of 47

HOPE and TAP Study on Absenteeism in the Health Sector ‐ Pakistan

HOPE and TAP
Technical Resource Facility

HOPE and TAP Study on Absenteeism in the Health Sector ‐ Pakistan

HOPE and TAP Study on Absenteeism in the Health Sector ‐ Pakistan

HOPE and TAP Study on Absenteeism in the Health Sector ‐ Pakistan

HOPE and TAP Study on Absenteeism in the Health Sector ‐ Pakistan

HOPE and TAP Study on Absenteeism in the Health Sector ‐ Pakistan

HOPE and TAP Study on Absenteeism in the Health Sector ‐ Pakistan

HOPE and TAP Study on Absenteeism in the Health Sector ‐ Pakistan


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **The World Bank** Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project (P166308) (c) The request for bids/request for proposals document shall require that bidders/proposers submitting bids/proposals present a signed acceptance (in the form attached) at the time of bidding, to be incorporated in any resulting contracts, confirming application of, and compliance with, the World Bank’s Anti‐Corruption Guidelines, including, without limitation, the World Bank’s right to sanction and the World Bank’s inspection and audit rights. (d) Procurement documents include provisions, as agreed with the World Bank, intended to adequately mitigate against environmental, social (including sexual exploitation and abuse and GBV), health and safety risks, and impacts. (e) Access to procurement opportunities shall not be restricted to firms that have preregistered and/or paid a registration fee. (f) No preference of any kind shall be given to national bidders in the bidding process. 14. When other national procurement arrangements (other than national open competitive procurement) are applied by the borrower, such arrangements shall be subject to paragraph 5.5 of the Procurement Regulations. **Strategy and Approach for Implementation Support** 15. **The Implementation support plan for the project is based on the following considerations.** The IAs will (a) implement routine services with minimum support from the World Bank


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **The World Bank** Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project (P166308) **Table 3. Balochistan Government Expenditure in FY14 (in current US$) and Project Amount** |Col1|Total|Health|Education| |---|---|---|---| |Government expenditure, current US$, millions|1,564|134|295| |Government expenditure per capita, current US$|140|12|26| |Annual project disbursement, current US$, millions|7.2|3.6|3.6| |Expenditure share of project disbursement, percent|0.46|2.69|1.22| _Note:_ Government expenditure data from GoB audited financial statements. Per capita allocations computed using population numbers from census 2017 and annualized population growth rate between 1998 and 2017. [ 60] **B. Fiduciary** **(i)** **Financial Management** 58. **The project financial management (FM) will mainly rely on country systems.** The GoB’s budgeting process will apply, and the health and education component budget will be separately reflected in the province’s Annual Development Plan. Both departments have experience in carrying out World Bank‐funded projects through PMUs and have established FM arrangements. However, lack of financial integration of the overall project due to two IAs and separate FM arrangements may delay the overall project FM. These risks will be mitigated by: (a) having dedicated FM staff at the two established PMUs and (b) maintaining separate books of accounts at each PMU. Other mitigation measures are mentioned in annex 2. 59. **Disbursements will be based on a biannual cash

Government expenditure data from GoB audited financial statements

Government expenditure data from GoB audited financial statements

Government expenditure data from GoB audited financial statements

Government expenditure data from GoB audited financial statements

Government expenditure data from GoB audited financial statements

Government expenditure data from GoB audited financial statements


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | the third quarter (two-fold increase compared to the first half of 2017, when 411 UASC were registered). The majority of children arriving to Greece by sea were from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Kuwait. ##### Italy Among the 15,140 children who arrived to Italy between January and September 2017, 92% (13,867) were unaccompanied or separated. This is a 27% decrease compared to the same period in 2016 (19,000). The smaller numbers of UASC arriving this year is mainly due to the overall drop in the number of people crossing the Central Mediterranean since July 2017. Most of them originated from Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, The Gambia and Bangladesh. ##### Bulgaria Between January and September 2017, 552 children were intercepted at border crossing points and within the territory of the country. [5] Among those, 28% were unaccompanied or separated children (154) which is 91% decrease compared to the same period in 2016. Most children were from Iraq, Syrian Arab Republic and Afghanistan. ##### Spain Between January and September 2017, 2,430 children arrived to Spain by sea and land, most commonly from Morocco (962), Syrian Arab Republic (740) and Algeria (218). Due to the increase in arrivals to Spain in the third quarter of

children who arrived to Italy between January and September 2017

children arrived to Spain by sea and land

2017
January and September 2017
January and September 2017

Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan
Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire
Gambia and Bangladesh
Bulgaria
Iraq
Afghanistan
Morocco
Algeria

children who arrived to Italy between January and September 2017

children who arrived to Italy between January and September 2017

children who arrived to Italy between January and September 2017

children arrived to Spain by sea and land

children arrived to Spain by sea and land

children arrived to Spain by sea and land

children who arrived to Italy between January and September 2017

children who arrived to Italy between January and September 2017

children who arrived to Italy between January and September 2017

children arrived to Spain by sea and land

children arrived to Spain by sea and land

children arrived to Spain by sea and land

children arrived to Spain by sea and land


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | set of questions asked farmers to indicate whether these same types events are, in the present, becoming more or less likely. The purpose was to compare perceptions of the present with expectations of the future, and see if they agreed qualitatively. On all questions, participants indicated their answer on a horizontal scale. For the likelihood estimations, the scale ranged from 0 (will not occur) to 100 (will certainly occur). On the change questions, the scale ranged from –100 (be coming much less frequent) to 100 (becoming much more frequent). Seventy-five farmers from the village of Chiguidela completed the questionnaire, which took place in a three-hour sitting, with the farmers dividing into groups of 6 to 8 people, each being led by a facilitator who explained each question and helped illiterate farmers to answer them. The farmers filled out a paper copy of the questionnaire, written in Portuguese but verbally translated into the local language by the facilitators, and indicated their estimate by drawing an arrow to point to some place on the scale. Sixty-nine policy makers completed the questionnaire, and represented a diverse group of high-level decision-makers, program managers, and technicians. Many of these did so as part of training


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | Washington DC. O'Brien, K. and Vogel, C. (Editors), 2003. Coping with climate variability: the use of seasonal climate forecasts in south ern Africa. Ashgate Publishing Ltd., Aldershot, England. Patt, A.G., 2001. Understanding uncertainty: forecasting seasonal climate for farmers in Zimbabwe. Risk Decision and Policy, 6: 105–119. Patt, A.G., Suarez, P. and Gwata, C., 2005. Effects of seasonal climate forecasts and participatory workshops among subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102: 12673–12678. Patt, A.G. and Zeckhauser, R., 2000. Action bias and environmental decisions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 21(1): 45– 72. Podestá, G. et al., 2002. Use of ENSO-related climate forecast information in agricultural decision-making in Argentina: a pilot experience. Agricultural Systems, 74: 371–392. Prentice-Dunn, S. and Rogers, R.W., 1986. Protection motivation theory and preventative health: beyond the health be lief model. Health Education Research, 1(153Ð161). Ritov, I. and Baron, J., 1990. Reluctance to vaccinate: omission bias and ambiguity. Journal of Behavioral Decision Mak ing, 3: 263–277. Ritov, I. and Baron, J., 1992. Status quo and omission biases. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5: 49–61. Roncoli, C., Ingram, K. and Kirshen, P., 2001. The costs and risks of coping with

ENSO-related climate forecast information

ENSO-related climate forecast information

ENSO-related climate forecast information

ENSO-related climate forecast information

ENSO-related climate forecast information

ENSO-related climate forecast information


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | respective component including submission to the Planning and Development Department for inclusion in the Annual Development Plan of Balochistan. The PMU FM staff will conduct regular reconciliation with the Government FMIS (SAP R/3). Budget and actual expenditure reports will be prepared on a monthly basis and shared with their respective project directors and the PCC or PSC for further actions. 4. **Accounting.** Project FMS at both PMUs will be maintained on cash basis and supported with appropriate records and procedures to track commitments and to safeguard assets. Separate books of accounts (that is, cash book, ledgers, bank reconciliations, cheque register, invoice register, commitment register, fixed asset register, and inventory/stock register) at each PMU will be maintained at all levels of project implementation and closing. Financial accounting software will be used for transparent, effective, efficient bookkeeping and timely decision making. The project will use the chart of accounts under the New Accounting Model. 5. **Internal controls.** An Internal Audit Cell exists in both Health and Education Departments, but its feasibility to conduct the project’s internal audit is in the process of finalization. A separate internal audit firm, which is already on board in the Education PMU, will continue periodic internal audits


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | A2 scenario. When they simulate the poverty impacts from extreme dry events for the period 2070 to 2100, an addi tional 1.8% of the population in Mexico becomes impoverished by extreme climate in the future. Andersen and Verner (2010, 2010a) employ municipal data in Mexico (and other Latin Ameri can countries) to estimate the cross-sectional relationship between climate and income in 2000. The estimated relationships are then used to simulate the impact of the climate changes for the next 50 years. They find that average temperatures and precipitation are not significantly related to income. They assume that a negative relationship exists between per capita income and poverty, and so their conclusion is that Mexico appears to be less vulnerable to climate change than most other Latin American countries. However, the analysis is very crude. They do not estimate the poverty-output elasticity, and do not consider income and population pro jections which are accounted for in this paper. To assess the effects of climate change on poverty we propose a two-stage least squares re gression (2SLS) where we first regress temperature and rainfall (along with municipal controls for elevation, longitude, latitude, distance from the municipality to the nearest road and state


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **2.1 Assignment of reliability weights to the eight GCMs, based on their** **historical “goodness of fit” to the CRU data** We use R [2] ’s rather than the simple correlation coefficients, because we want to discriminate strongly in favor of the best-fitting GCMs. Our approach is bivariate, because temperature and rainfall are jointly produced by the climate process. To assign reliability weights, we combine fine-gridded historical results for each GCM with monthly temperature and rainfall data for the period 1961-2000 (CRU), provided for Ethiopia by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. We compute R [2] ’s between CRU and each of the eight GCMs for temperature and rainfall separately. Each estimate is based on 178,560 observations (monthly during 1961-2000 for 372 Ethiopian grid squares). We add rainfall and temperature R [2] ’s to get a summary measure of explained variation for each GCM, specify the smallest value as the numeraire, and divide it into the others to get relative scores. **2.2 Establishment of forecasting benchmarks for each grid square** We require separate benchmarks for the CRU and each of the GCMs. We establish forecasting benchmarks for each grid square using data for the period

monthly temperature and rainfall data for the period 1961-2000 (CRU), provided for Ethiopia by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

monthly temperature and rainfall data for the period 1961-2000 (CRU), provided for Ethiopia by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

monthly temperature and rainfall data for the period 1961-2000 (CRU), provided for Ethiopia by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

monthly temperature and rainfall data for the period 1961-2000 (CRU), provided for Ethiopia by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

monthly temperature and rainfall data for the period 1961-2000 (CRU), provided for Ethiopia by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

monthly temperature and rainfall data for the period 1961-2000 (CRU), provided for Ethiopia by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | from -2.59 to -0.69 (For a review see Sz ́ekely and Foster, 2001). **5.3** **Simulated** **Impacts** **of** **Climate** **Change** **on** **Per** **Capita** **GDP** **and** **Poverty** This section provides estimates of the poverty impacts of climate-driven changes in output. Thus far we have estimated the impact of historic temperature and precipitation on GDP per capita in each municipality. Now, we use IPCC’s temperature and rainfall projections for 2030 tailored for Mexico to build a different climate vector for each municipality, which then helped to obtain the percent change in output induced by climate change. To calculate the effects of global warming on GDP in the study areas, we calculate the dif ference in GDP per capita at projected temperature and rainfall scenarios from the predicted GDP at the historical mean. Predicted impacts of climate change on output result from com bining predicted coefficients in model (1) with climate projections. Our estimates suggest that global warming is expected to decrease output (GDP per capita) in the sample by 1.45 percent, with municipality-specific estimates ranging from -2.25 to +5.86%. How much will such output declines due to climate change affect poverty? To obtain the poverty impacts of climate change by 2030, we have

temperature and rainfall projections for 2030

temperature and rainfall projections for 2030

temperature and rainfall projections for 2030

temperature and rainfall projections for 2030

temperature and rainfall projections for 2030


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | Added of the World Bank** 3. **The World Bank is well positioned to provide technical and financial support to the Balochistan** **health and education sectors.** The World Bank has ample technical and operational experience in health and education sector improvement projects that are similar to the proposed interventions. This experience comes from a large variety of low‐ and middle‐income countries, including those that suffer from fragility and conflict. It includes projects in Pakistan—for example, similar education interventions are currently being implemented in Balochistan and Punjab. 61 NIPS and ICF (2019). 62 Own calculations using data from HIES 2015–16. 63 NIPS and ICF (2019). Pradhan, E, E. M. Suzuki, S. Martínez, M. Schäferhoff, and D. T. Jamison. 2018. “The Effects of Education Quantity and Quality on Mortality”. In _Optimizing Education Outcomes: High‐Return Investments in School Health for Increased Participation and Learning_, edited by Bundy, D. A. P., N. de Silva, S. Horton, D. T. Jamison, and G. C. Patton, Chapter 30. World Bank. 64 Boulier, B. L., T. S. Datta, and R. S. Goldfarb. 2007. "Vaccination Externalities." _The BE Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy_ 7 (1) _._ 65 Ozier, O. 2014. “Exploiting Externalities to Estimate the Long‐Term Effects of Early

Balochistan
Pakistan
Balochistan and Punjab


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | respondents), and “investing in increasing availability of electricity” (57 percent) as important priorities for government spending (Figure 9a). 28. As one would expect, peoples’ past experiences with adverse climate change-related impacts play an important role in influencing their views regarding what future course of action should be taken to combat climate change: the P-LITS data clearly show that respondents that reported having experienced unpredictable and extreme weather that harmed agricultural production, or a decline in fresh water available for drinking or irrigation are much more likely to favor increased government spending on improving extension services and providing seeds more resilient to climate change, as well as investing in clean drinking water and irrigation infrastructure respectively, compared to respondents that did not experience such climate change-related hazards. 29. When asked to choose the single-most important priority for additional government spending related to climate change, (i) investing in increasing availability of electricity (22 percent), (ii) improving extension services and providing seeds more resilient to climate extremes (18 percent), and (iii) providing clean drinking water (14 percent) received the highest share of votes from respondents (Figure 9b); (iv) providing more help and relief after natural disasters occur (10 percent), (v) reforestation to prevent


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **The World Bank** Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project (P166308) 20. **As with elsewhere in the country, schools are currently closed in Balochistan.** As part of the national response to the COVID‐19 pandemic, the Ministry of Federal Education and Professional Training launched a distance education ‘Teleschool’ television channel. Children in Balochistan are also benefiting from it. The need to strengthen quality of education will be even more important to mitigate the lost time of instruction. At the same time, the Teleschool delivery system can offer an opportunity to reach some of the out‐of‐school children, including girls. **C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives** 21. **The Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project is aligned with the World Bank Group’s** **Country Partnership Strategy (FY15–20)** [31] and with the twin goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity. It is also aligned with the recent Pakistan@100 report which highlights the necessary reforms required for Pakistan to become an upper‐middle‐income country by 2047. [32] It contributes directly to the Strategy’s Results Area 4 (Service Delivery) and covers all sub‐results areas: 4.1. Improved public resources management; 4.2. Improved access to maternal and child health services; 4.3. Increased school enrollment and adoption of education quality assessment; and 4.4.


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | 24. An ordered probit model was used to analyze respondents’ rating of how serious they consider the issue of climate change to be. The results of the order probit regressions confirm differences across various population sub-groups discussed above are indeed statistically significant. ``` Frequency Percent ``` **Income level** ``` Poorest one-third 167 33.40 Middle 167 33.40 Richest one-third 166 33.20 ``` **Region:** ``` Dushanbe 50 10.00 GBAO 20 4.00 Soghd 150 30.00 Khatlon 170 34.00 RSS 110 22.00 ``` **Sale/barter of farm products is the main source of livelihood of the household** ``` No 436 87.20 Yes 64 12.80 ``` **Awareness of main consequences of climate change** ``` Not at all informed 44 9.22 Not very well informed 162 33.96 Fairly well informed 227 47.59 Very well informed 44 9.22 ``` **Climate-related Hazards during the Past 10 Years** 25. Sixty-two percent of respondents in Tajikistan reported having encountered extreme hot/cold seasons that were harmful for health during the past 10 years; 42 percent experienced unpredictable and extreme weather that harmed agricultural production, while 40 percent reported having suffered a decline in fresh water availability for drinking (Figure 8). **Figure 8: Respondents affected by climate-related hazards during past 10 years** **Source:**


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | into the local language by the facilitators, and indicated their estimate by drawing an arrow to point to some place on the scale. Sixty-nine policy makers completed the questionnaire, and represented a diverse group of high-level decision-makers, program managers, and technicians. Many of these did so as part of training sessions organized by the Mozambique Meteorological Department and Mozambique Red Cross, completing the same paper survey as the farmers, while the remainder responded to an email invitation. The latter filled out the survey online, choosing English or Portuguese, and moving an onscreen slider bar to indicate their answers. The results supported the second hypothesis, namely differences in probability perception between the two groups. As seen in Figure 2, on the first set of question farmers indicated the likelihood of the non-climate events (69.1% on aver age) being higher than the climate related events (65.6%), although the difference was not significant ( _student’s t_ = 1.58, _p_ = 0.12). Policy makers indicated the likelihood of a non-climate event being lower (55.9%) than the climate related events (60.3%), although the difference between the two types of events was only marginally significant ( _student’s t_ = 1.96, _p_ = 0.054) significant. When the


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | and animal health sectors and seeks to improve analytical capacity and exchange of information. The COVID-19 project will cover REDISSE 3’s blind spots on prevention and case management. The two projects will work closely to minimize the chances of duplication and maximize their synergies and by using the same project implementation unit (PIU). **C.** **Relevance to Higher Level Objectives** 17. **The project is aligned with WBG strategic priorities, particularly the WBG’s mission to end extreme** **poverty and boost shared prosperity** . The Program, focused on preparedness, is also critical to achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC). It is also aligned with the World Bank’s support for national plans and global commitments to strengthen pandemic preparedness through three key actions under Preparedness: (i) improving national preparedness plans including organizational structure of the government; promoting adherence to the International Health Regulations (IHR); and utilizing international framework for monitoring and evaluation of IHR. The economic rationale for investing in the MPA interventions is strong, given that success can reduce the economic burden suffered both by individuals and countries. The project complements both WBG and development partner investments in health systems strengthening, disease control and surveillance, attention to changing individual and institutional behavior, and citizen


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **The World Bank** Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project (P166308) |IA|Implementing Agency| |---|---| |IMF|International Monetary Fund| |IRR|Internal Rate of Return| |IUFR|Interim Unaudited Financial Report| |LEC|Local Education Council| |LHW|Lady Health Worker| |M&E|Monitoring and Evaluation| |MNCH|Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health| |MUC|Marginal Utility of Consumption| |NIPS|National Institute of Population Studies| |NPV|Net Present Value| |OECD|Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development| |PCC|Project Coordination Committee| |PDHS|Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey| |PDO|Project Development Objective| |PHC|Primary Health Care| |PITE|Provincial Institute for Teacher’s Education| |PMU|Project Management Unit| |PoR|Proof of Registration| |PPHI|People's Primary Healthcare Initiative| |PPSD|Project Procurement Strategy for Development| |PSC|Project Steering Committee| |PTSMC|Parent‐Teacher School Management Committee| |RHC|Rural Health Center| |RMNCHN|Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, Child Health, and Nutrition| |RMP|Repatriation and Management Policy for Afghan Refugees| |RPF|Resettlement Policy Framework| |RSW|Regional Sub‐window| |SED|Secondary Education Department| |SSAR|Solution Strategy for Afghan Refugees| |STEP|Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement| |TFR|Total Fertility Rate| |UNHCR|United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees| |VSL|Value of Statistical Life| |WDI|World Development Indicator| |WHO|World Health Organization|

Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey
World Development Indicator


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. 13 _Europeans’ attitude towards climate change_ Special Eurobarometer 300, Wave 69.2 September 2008. The survey was requested by the European Commission and the European Parliament, and coordinated by the Directorate General for Communication of the European Commission. 8

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan

Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania

Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan

Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania

Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | on separated children specifically is very challenging (e.g. separated children being registered as either accompanied or unaccompanied). It should also be noted that complete data for the period January to September 2017 on children and UASC asylum applications for all EU member states was not available on the Eurostat website at the time when this factsheet was released. Sources: Hellenic Police, Greek National Centre for Social Solidarity (EKKA), Italian Ministry of Interior, Bulgarian State Agency for Refugees, Spanish Ministry of Interior, Eurostat, BAMF-Germany, IOM, UNHCR and UNICEF Eastern Mediterranean Route: 8,5% interviewed children who arrived through this route responded positively to at least one of the indicators related to human trafficking and other exploitative practices - Children reported travelling alone more often than adults, (56% vs. 37%), very often with scarce financial resources, which puts them at particularly high risk hidden behind the cheaper but more dangerous deals with mediators, often involving violent behavior by smugglers or other travel companions. - Survey shows that travelling with a group of non-family members is associated with a higher share of positive responses among children (12% compared to 8% of those who travelled alone) - 11% of interviewed children reported being forcibly returned

complete data for the period January to September 2017 on children and UASC asylum applications for all EU member states

complete data for the period January to September 2017 on children and UASC asylum applications for all EU member states

complete data for the period January to September 2017 on children and UASC asylum applications for all EU member states

complete data for the period January to September 2017 on children and UASC asylum applications for all EU member states


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **The World Bank** Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project (P166308) recently approved Pandemic Response Effective in Pakistan Project will support the national and provincial governments to respond to the COVID‐19 crisis, this project will support strengthening of the health system to ensure it continues providing essential health services to the target population groups safely by controlling infection risk at HFs. This is paramount to maintain public trust in the health sector and ensure continued health care‐seeking behavior, therefore avoiding higher mortality from non‐COVID conditions. 44. The design of project implementation and monitoring have also been informed by the experience of previous and ongoing World Bank and other development partners’ (DPs) engagements especially in Pakistan. (a) **Coordination structures for effective multisector coordination.** Poor interdepartmental coordination significantly slows down and fragments project implementation, thus limiting the synergistic effects of the interventions. A coordination structure will be established to ensure convergence and efficiency of the activities. Recognizing the difficulties in fund flows across different line departments, the project will ensure that each implementing agency (IA) plans and executes its activities and maintains its own fiduciary management. (b) **Regular monitoring for accountability and continuous planning.** The project will strengthen existing monitoring system(s), where possible, and


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | reported protec�on incident, with almost all of the reported incidents taking place in North Darfur. While no incidents primarily categorized as crop destruc�on were captured in the incident tracker, six incidents were categorized as being related to engagement in agricultural ac�vi�es and at least 3,000 farms were reported to have been destroyed as a consequence of flooding. The qualita�ve feedback gathered from communi�es through protec�on monitoring and other channels, con�nues to indicate a much broader range of protec�on concerns inhibi�ng access to agricultural land than the number of crop destruc�on incidents reported would suggest. Similarly, protec�on monitoring indicates that GBV incidents take place much more frequently than reflected in the incident tracking data but remain underreported due to barriers to accessing relevant services and community s�gma. **Key Confict Impacts on Civilians:** The civilian popula�on in **North Darfur** con�nued to be severely affected by direct impacts of conflict. Over September and October, the persistent use of explosive weaponry with wide-area effects in and around civilian se�lements, including ar�llery shelling and aerial bombardments, became more frequent despite this being at odds with the obliga�ons of par�es to the conflict under interna�onal humanitarian law (IHL) regarding dis�nc�on, propor�onality and precau�ons. During September, reported


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | by estimated cost of care, vulnerability status, and type of care (e.g. emergency life-saving, obstetric, medical and surgical). For estimated costs of USD <1500, 75% of costs are covered and the refugees cover the remaining 25%. If estimated costs are USD ≥1500 or refugees present outside the pre-approved hospital network, partner agencies are required to consult with UNHCR. Emergency UNHCR approval is strictly for immediate life saving or limb-saving cases. UNHCR refers all non-emergency cases to an Exceptional Care Committe that is responsible for authorisation of coverage. For the extremely vulnerable refugees, UNHCR covers 100% of the costs. **Key findings** - There were 41,168 referrals for secondary and tertiary health care in Lebanon in 2013; referrals by region were Bekaa 15,252 (37%), Beirut and Mt Lebanon 10,244 (25%), North Lebanon 10,420 (25%) and South Lebanon 5,252 (13%) - The referral rate was 7.9 per 100 refugees per year. The referral trends show a steep decline towards the end of the year in all regions. This may partly be attributed to lack of knowledge by newly arriving refugees of the availability of health services, lack of capacity to handle the increasing numbers within the current hospital network or by agencies responsible

41,168 referrals for secondary and tertiary health care in Lebanon in 2013

41,168 referrals for secondary and tertiary health care in Lebanon in 2013

41,168 referrals for secondary and tertiary health care in Lebanon in 2013

41,168 referrals for secondary and tertiary health care in Lebanon in 2013

41,168 referrals for secondary and tertiary health care in Lebanon in 2013

41,168 referrals for secondary and tertiary health care in Lebanon in 2013

41,168 referrals for secondary and tertiary health care in Lebanon in 2013

41,168 referrals for secondary and tertiary health care in Lebanon in 2013


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | effect of moving the choice of a representative monthly series toward the better-fitting GCMs). Then we compute annual totals for the weighted squared deviations for temperature and rainfall separately. As before, we calculate cell ranks for the two variables, and perform the second-stage squared-deviations operations on the ranks to get annual scores for each GCM and year. We select the GCM/year which has the lowest score (and is therefore closest to the central tendency in the dataset, by our criteria) and identify the monthly series for that GCM/year as the most representative series for comparative analysis. **2.8 The analysis tableau** The complete tableau has the following elements. Each grid square has nine cells containing incidence probabilities for annual temperature/rainfall totals in each of three periods (past, near future, distant future). Each cell is also assigned a monthly joint series of rainfall and temperature for the past (from the benchmark CRU series that we have already described in 2.2 above), as well as monthly series for the two future periods. This “distillation” still creates a massive dataset (as many as 9 cells, 3 periods, 372 grid squares, although many cells have zero expected incidence. But for any specific grid square (the


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | . Some immediate results could also be achieved by educating the communities about different ways to treat water, like chlorination at the point of use, boiling, or use of filters. 41. The health sector should be prepared to respond to a potential increase in climate shocks. This will involve prevention of heat-related illnesses (e.g. heat strokes), ensuring that primary health care facilities particularly in remote rural areas have stockpiles of essential medicines as well as access to transportation to take patients to urban centers in case of emergencies, and increasing vaccination against major infectious diseases. It is also important to sustain the success of malaria control measures, which have resulted in reduction of malaria cases from almost 30,000 in 1997 to 635 in 2007 [23] . Vector control programs, training of medical staff in malaria prevention and treatment as well as community education campaigns should continue to prevent any future outbreaks. 42. The above mentioned adaptation priorities are in conformance with the directions of reforms outlined in the latest Poverty Reduction Strategy of Tajikistan 2010-2012. In fact, poverty reduction is an integral part of climate change adaptation. Higher income levels, improved health and education as well as better access to


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | Policy Research Working Paper 5004 **Abstract** This paper describes an approach to forecasting future climate at the local level using historical weather station and satellite data and future projections of climate data from global climate models (GCMs) that is easily understandable by policymakers and planners. It describes an approach to synthesize the myriad climate projections, often with conflicting messages, into an easily-interpreted set of graphical displays that summarizes the basic implications of the ensemble of available climate models. The method described in the paper can be applied to publicly-available data for any country and for any number of climate models. It does not depend on geographic scale and can be applied at the subnational, national, or regional level. The paper illustrates the results for future climate for Ethiopia using future climate scenarios projects by 8 global climate models. The graphical displays of nine possible future climate regimes (average temperature, precipitation and their seasonal distribution) for each grid-cell about 50km X 50 km). It also provides the probability associated with each of the nine-climate regimes. This paper—a product of the Environment Department and Development Research Group of the World Bank—is part of a larger study on the Economics of Adaptation to

historical weather station and satellite data

future projections of climate data from global climate models (GCMs)

future climate scenarios projects by 8 global climate models

historical weather station and satellite data

historical weather station and satellite data

future projections of climate data from global climate models (GCMs)

future projections of climate data from global climate models (GCMs)

future projections of climate data from global climate models (GCMs)

future climate scenarios projects by 8 global climate models

future climate scenarios projects by 8 global climate models

future climate scenarios projects by 8 global climate models

future climate scenarios projects by 8 global climate models


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | forecasts are realized, the 2010-2012 Poverty Reduction Strategy identifies water resources, agriculture, transport infrastructure, and public health as the four main sectors in Tajikistan impacted by climate change. In addition, one of the priority objectives of the country’s national development strategy is to tackle the problems of natural disasters both through prevention and effective natural resource management. [ 2] **Water Scarcity** 8. Since 1930, total area of glaciers declined by one-third, and is expected to fall a further 15-20 percent over the next 30-40 years, with many small glaciers disappearing altogether. Due to intensive melting of mountain glaciers, water inflow into major rivers will initially increase, but then will drastically decrease in the longer-term. Many local communities in Tajikistan will likely suffer critical water shortages, since total water stocks are expected to fall by 80-100 cubic km. over the next 30-40 years. Changes in average precipitation across the country have been quite uneven due to considerable topological diversity. [3] **Natural Disasters and Impact on Infrastructure** 9. In addition to rising temperatures and change in precipitation, Tajikistan is also vulnerable to frequent natural disasters and extreme weather events. According to the UN Office for Coordination 2 _Poverty Reduction Strategy of the


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | and religion. With the assessment report serving as the basis for further discussion, UNHCR held a series of formal and informal meetings with the MoE, CNARR – the entity responsible for refugees, UNICEF, UNESCO and education partners to present the assessment results, build consensus around a transition and outline the necessary modalities. In support of transition, UNHCR enrolled 167 refugee teachers from primary schools into a professional teacher training programme in December 2012. This pool of teachers would later become key resources in schools during the transition. In May 2013, a workshop co-led by the MoE, UNICEF and UNHCR was held with key stakeholders to elaborate an implementation plan for the transition. The workshop included experts from the various departments of the MoE, including those responsible for teacher training, textbooks and curriculum development. Working groups explored key questions surrounding equivalency, examinations, teachers, school management and structure, integration into national schools, sensitization and materials, amongst others. The workshop resulted in an Action Plan including a two-year timeline with key activities and key actors responsible. A Working Group was also established to ensure that the Action Plan was monitored on a regular basis, and that any issues were addressed. In April 2014,


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **The World Bank** Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project (P166308) measles vaccination in Balochistan who are fully vaccinated. [74] Data on under‐five mortality comes from PDHS 2017–18. The impact of additional family planning visits on maternal mortality is based on the maternal mortality effect of modern contraceptive use estimated by Ahmed et al. (2012). [75] It is assumed that 50 percent of family planning visits to the project facilities result in modern contraceptive use. An adjustment factor is applied throughout to account for crowding out of formal private health care services, assuming that 95 percent of the additional benefits in project facilities would have occurred in the absence of the project. **Table 1.3. Estimated Lives Saved over the Project Cycle** |Years|Neonatal|Under‐5|Maternal|Total| |---|---|---|---|---| |2020|0|0|0|0| |2021|7|17|5|29| |2022|8|22|7|36| |2023|9|28|9|45| |2024|10|37|11|58| |Total|33|103|32|168| 11. **Lives saved by the project are converted into monetary terms using the concept of VSL,** that is, individuals’ willingness to pay for small changes in their likelihood of dying in a certain time frame, considering their budgetary constraints. These are then converted into a population‐level value of a decrease in expected number of deaths—the so‐called VSL. For Pakistan, 2009 VSL estimates from Rafiq and Shah (2010) [76 ] are adjusted to 2018


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | For each GCM, this entails multiplying each yearly ratio (from 2.3 above) in each future year by the counterpart observation in the CRU benchmark dataset (from the most representative temperature/rainfall combination, derived from CRU data for 1980-2000). This procedure serves two goals. It retains the relative changes incorporated in future GCM estimates, and it applies these relative changes to the actual point of historical departure: the benchmark series from the CRU data. This translation step is necessary because the GCMs reflect consistent, global-scale computations but are not designed to accurately reproduce local climate regimes. That is why we have developed R [2] -based “goodness-of-fit” scores in the first stage of this process. 5


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | of the students **have little to no hope in the future** . In addition, **72% of children are in need of additional** **school support, 67% of children in need of** **additional support from their family members** **and 91% of children has low self-regulation** **skills/awareness** . Taking a closer look to the results per country, we can highlight the perception of insecurity that is very high in Burkina Faso in conflict-affected areas [4], with only the **4% of respondents who** **feel safe at school** or the lack of psychosocial support with only **23% who feel supported by** **a school staff when they are scared** . Still in Burkina Faso, only the **25% of children appear** **to have a good level in terms of concentration** at school and only the **17% of have reported** **to feel always able to do their best at school** . These data are alarming and need urgent 3. A total of 641 children (354 girls and 287 boys) 6 to 14 years old have been assessed between May and September 2021. 4. The assessment was conducted in 3 schools in the area of Barsalogho, Burkina Faso. Students who cannot concentrate when doing schoolwork Students who don't feel

A total of 641 children (354 girls and 287 boys) 6 to 14 years old have been assessed between May and September 2021

A total of 641 children (354 girls and 287 boys) 6 to 14 years old have been assessed between May and September 2021

A total of 641 children (354 girls and 287 boys) 6 to 14 years old have been assessed between May and September 2021

A total of 641 children (354 girls and 287 boys) 6 to 14 years old have been assessed between May and September 2021

A total of 641 children (354 girls and 287 boys) 6 to 14 years old have been assessed between May and September 2021

A total of 641 children (354 girls and 287 boys) 6 to 14 years old have been assessed between May and September 2021


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | UNHCR, UNICEF and IOM January to September 2017 Gender Breakdown of All Children by Country of Arrival In all counties of arrival, the proportion of boys compared to girls remains higher (on average 7 boys for every 3 girl). BOYS GIRLS Greece **59%** **41%** Italy **93%** **7%** Bulgaria **67%** **33%** For Italy, the calculation is based on the estimated 18,491 UASC accommodated in the government shelters according to the Ministry of Labour and not the total number of UASC who arrived in between January and September 2017. Source: Hellenic Police, EKKA, Italian Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, Bulgarian State Agency for Refugees, Bulgarian Helsinki Committee Age Breakdown of Accompanied and Unaccompanied and Separated Children by Country of Arrival Among the 6,837 accompanied children who arrived to Greece and Bulgaria, 34% were between 0 and 4 years old, 47% were between 5 and 14 years old and 20% were between 15 and 17 years old. An age breakdown for accompanied children in Italy is not available, but their proportion is very low, representing only 8% of children arriving through the Central Mediterranean Route between January and September 2017. Accompanied Children - Age Breakdown 0 - 4

UNHCR, UNICEF and IOM January to September 2017 Gender Breakdown of All Children by Country of Arrival

estimated 18,491 UASC accommodated in the government shelters according to the Ministry of Labour

Hellenic Police, EKKA, Italian Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, Bulgarian State Agency for Refugees, Bulgarian Helsinki Committee

UNHCR, UNICEF and IOM January to September 2017 Gender Breakdown of All Children by Country of Arrival

UNHCR, UNICEF and IOM January to September 2017 Gender Breakdown of All Children by Country of Arrival

UNHCR, UNICEF and IOM January to September 2017 Gender Breakdown of All Children by Country of Arrival

estimated 18,491 UASC accommodated in the government shelters according to the Ministry of Labour

estimated 18,491 UASC accommodated in the government shelters according to the Ministry of Labour

estimated 18,491 UASC accommodated in the government shelters according to the Ministry of Labour

Hellenic Police, EKKA, Italian Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, Bulgarian State Agency for Refugees, Bulgarian Helsinki Committee

Hellenic Police, EKKA, Italian Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, Bulgarian State Agency for Refugees, Bulgarian Helsinki Committee

estimated 18,491 UASC accommodated in the government shelters according to the Ministry of Labour

Hellenic Police, EKKA, Italian Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, Bulgarian State Agency for Refugees, Bulgarian Helsinki Committee


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | advocate for their inclusion. Refugee children have unique educational needs. Joint assessments conducted with government and education partners will clarify real, rather than perceived, reasons refugee children and youth may be out of school, and establish strategic approaches to addressing their needs. It is possible to generally calculate refugee participation in educational programming through enrolment data provided by partners, but **it is critical to conduct an** **assessment to understand the specific barriers** **refugee OOSC face in each displacement** **context.** Assessments should be **inclusive** and ensure consideration of all children regardless of age, gender, or disability, and should capture a **range** **of ages** that include early childhood to tertiary education needs. Assessments should adopt both **quantitative and qualitative** methodologies, including surveys, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. Assessment teams should be comprised of both **men and women**, and also include **the refugee community** from 2 http://www.unicef.org/education/bege_61659.html. 3 http://goo.gl/HgSlIq (2014). planning through results stages. Staff or partners conducting assessments should be guided to facilitate discussions that do not raise unrealistic expectations of communities. #### **Assessment tools** è è **ProGres:** UNHCR’s registration database _proGres_ provides age and gender disaggregated data for registered refugees of all ages. It is important that registration teams

registration database _proGres_
enrolment data provided by partners
surveys


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s** **Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers for Goods, Works, Non‐Consulting and Consulting Services,** **August 2018 (Procurement Regulations).** The project will be subject to the World Bank’s Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants (revised as of July 1, 2016) (Anti‐Corruption Guidelines). 61. **The procurement assessment was done on the basis of existing World Bank engagements in the** **health and education sectors.** Each IA within the Health Department and SED will be required to ensure availability of a full‐time procurement specialist with qualifications and experience acceptable to the World Bank including completion of procurement clinics for project staff on conflicts of interest (CoIs) and 60 World Bank. 2018. _Balochistan: Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) Performance Assessment Report._ Washington, D.C.: World Bank; Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. _Population Census 2017_ . Page 25 of 47


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **2.5 Separation of forecasts into relevant future periods** Selection of intervals within the 100-year forecast range (2001-2100) is essentially arbitrary. For this study, we divide the 21 [st] century into two 50-year intervals (2001 2050; 2051-2100) to provide a simple illustrative template. **2.6 Separation of weather data into scale classes** The GCMs attempt to replicate actual climate patterns by incorporating year-to-year stochastic variation into their forecasts. At the same time, the GCMs incorporate long trends in the annual levels and monthly distributions of rainfall and temperature. For each GCM, each 50-year forecast interval therefore includes widely-varying joint observations on temperature and rainfall. The total forecast variation is compounded by the presence of 8 GCMs. For the scale-separation exercise, we use our calculated yearly temperature and rainfall pairs for each GCM in each future forecast interval. This generates 400 annual totals (8 GCMs; 50 years) for temperature and rainfall for each of 372 grid squares. These reflect anticipated future climate trends as well as broad stochastic variation from year to year. To establish the full domain for variation, we assemble annual observations as follows for each grid square: the first 40 from the CRU data (1961-2000) and the other 800 from


Input:
specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **The World Bank** Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project (P166308) delivered by UNHCR through the Pakistan Post. This program tries to mirror the support to citizens under the Ehsaas umbrella in order to minimize unequal distribution of support. 8. **Balochistan hosts around 325,000 registered Afghan refugees.** About 47 percent of them are females, and more than half of them (53 percent) are less than 18 years of age. Districts with the highest presence of registered refugees include Quetta, Pishin, Chagai, Loralai, Killa Saifullah, and Killa Abdullah (table 1). More than half of the refugees in Balochistan live in urban Quetta (56 percent), whereas the remaining live in rural settlements (29 percent) and refugee villages (15 percent). **Table 1. Number and Percentage of Afghan Refugees by District in Balochistan** |District|Population|Number of Registered Afghan
Refugees|Percentage of Registered
Afghan Refugees| |---|---|---|---| |Quetta|2,275,699|187,031|8.2| |Pishin|736,481|54,691|7.4| |Chagai|226,008|28,901|12.8| |Loralai|397,400|18,894|4.8| |Killa Saifullah|342,814|18,842|5.5| |Killa Abdullah|757,578|10,775|1.4| _Source_ : Population data from Census 2017; Registered refugee data from UNHCR as of December 31, 2019. _Note_ : The table includes data for districts with more than 10,000 registered refugees. **B. Sectoral and Institutional Context** 9. **Pakistan has invested significantly in designing refugee protection framework and** **administrative practices that are consistent with international standards and norms.**

Census 2017
UNHCR as of December 31, 2019


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **The World Bank** Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project (P166308) the synergistic effect of receiving both health and education interventions in the same target areas. The project will also explore opportunities for multisectoral services. For example, skilled health workers at the nearby HFs will provide school health education for students, while schools will provide a venue for outreach health services to communities. 29. **The interventions designed to improve systems will be first implemented in target areas and** **later scaled up at the provincial level.** The project targets four districts (that is, Chagai, Quetta, Pishin, and Killa Abdullah) with (a) the highest presence of registered refugees or (b) the main border crossing between Balochistan and Afghanistan constituting a major entry/exit point for refugees. **B. Project Components** **Component 1: Improving utilization of quality health services (US$18.25 million equivalent)** 30. **Component 1 aims to improve utilization of quality health services** by improving delivery of essential preventive and curative services at existing primary and secondary HFs and strengthening health sector stewardship in Balochistan. Interventions will be implemented in selected refugee hosting districts, through two subcomponents. 31. **Subcomponent 1.1: Improving delivery of quality health services (US$14.86 million equivalent)** will support improving delivery of quality health services

Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project

Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project

Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project

Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project

Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project

Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project

Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project

Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | drainage from the lower soil moisture zone (base flow) as a nonlinear recession; and the inclusion of topography that allows for orographic precipitation and temperature lapse rates resulting in more realistic hydrology in mountainous regions. VIC uses a separate routing model based on a linear transfer function to simulate the streamflow. Adaptations to the routing model are implemented in VIC to allow representation of water management effects including reservoir operation and irrigation diversions and return flows. Since its existence, VIC has been well calibrated and validated in a number of large river basins over the continental US and the globe. Applications using the VIC model cover a variety of research areas. 7Future climate data was provided by the WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (http://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org). All climate models are credited to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) produced a multi-model dataset, referenced in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Third and the 6


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | percent of the country’s national workforce is employed abroad (mostly in Russia) and sends home remittances equal to more than one-third of its gross domestic product. 3. The above factors combine to make Tajikistan one of the poorest and most vulnerable economies in the world. [1] Given its unique combination of geography, topography, climate, and low income, it is also especially prone to the adverse impacts of global climate change. How well informed are households in Tajikistan about the different causes and consequences of climate change? How concerned are they about its various potential impacts, and how do these concerns compare with other development challenges the country currently faces? What are some of the main transmission channels through which households could be impacted? Which potential impacts, if realized, would be of greatest public concern? Is there evidence of some of these changes already taking place? Using data from a nationally representative household survey carried out in Tajikistan recently, this paper examines some salient aspects of public perceptions of climate change in the country to help address these and other such important questions of policy interest. 4. The Pilot Program on Climate Resilience has recently been launched in Tajikistan with donor

nationally representative household survey

nationally representative household survey

nationally representative household survey

nationally representative household survey

nationally representative household survey


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | of drugs, extended periods of medicine stockouts at public HFs, and high incidence of expired drugs. 17. **In Balochistan, children suffer from suboptimal learning outcomes and large disparities by** **gender.** Despite significant efforts by the Secondary Education Department (SED), Balochistan performs poorly compared to the national average across all education outcomes. In FY16/17, 64 percent of boys and 78 percent of girls (between the ages of 5 and 16) were not enrolled in primary and secondary schools in Balochistan, compared to 40 percent of boys and 49 percent of girls at the national level. [22] The overall net enrollment and effective transition rates, from primary to middle school and middle to high school, were low compared to national rates, especially among girls. When it comes to student learning metrics, children in Balochistan also perform poorly in comparison to the same age groups in rural Pakistan communities. For example, approximately 60 percent of children in grade 5 could not perform a two‐digit division problem. The 2018 ASER report also highlighted a wide gender gap in student learning, with 31 percent of boys and 20 percent of girls (ages 5 to 16 years) being able to read second‐grade level sentences 19 Expanded


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | to Turkey Of the total returnees (1,360) from Greece to Turkey under the EU-Turkey statement since the start of 2016 until end of October 2017, 76 (5%) were children. All of them were returned with their families. ##### Assisted with Voluntary Return and Reintegration (AVRR) to Children and UASC [7] Between January and September 2017, IOM provided AVRR support to 55,577 migrants (25% less than the same period in 2016). 25% of migrants availing AVRR support were children, including 4% UASC. Nearly 73% of the AVRR beneficiaries returned from the European Economic Area and Switzerland. Among these, more than 60% returned from Germany. Within the same period, almost 12,900 migrants received assistance to return voluntarily from the European Economic Area and Switzerland. More than 27% of them were children, among whom 2.5% were UASC. Source: Europe Resettlement 2016, UNHCR 5


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | children were from Iraq, Syrian Arab Republic and Afghanistan. ##### Spain Between January and September 2017, 2,430 children arrived to Spain by sea and land, most commonly from Morocco (962), Syrian Arab Republic (740) and Algeria (218). Due to the increase in arrivals to Spain in the third quarter of 2017, the number of child arrivals also increased by 44% compared to the first half of 2017 (995). Data on unaccompanied and separated children is not available from the Spanish Ministry of Interior. 1


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | trainings. In addition, the project will train district‐ and cluster‐level education and health teams in data collection, management, analysis, and timely course correction. Process evaluations will be used to measure the quality of implementation. To tackle the challenges in evidence‐based decision making and improved accountability within the Health Department, the project will support the GoB to (a) establish or strengthen an HRH database, a health institutional database that routinely tracks facility 47 During the early phase of implementation, the Governance and Policy Program (GPP) PMU will provide back‐up support. Page 21 of 47


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **2.** **TAJIKISTAN:** **RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS** 6. Figure 1 provides a useful stylized illustration of the various channels through which CC affects the livelihoods of poor people, ranging from direct impacts on the environment to indirect impacts on households, communities, and the economy. For Tajikistan, virtually all are relevant. **Figure 1: Various Transmission Channels through which CC Impacts the Poor** **Source:** L. Cord, C. Hennet, and G. van der Vink, (2008): _Climate Change and Poverty: Towards an Integrated Policy Framework for_ _Adaptation._ PREM Economics of Climate Change Discussion Papers, World Bank, Washington DC. 7. According to the 2nd National Communication of Tajikistan prepared under UNFCCC (2008), average temperatures rose by about 0.5-0.8C across most parts of the country during the 65 year period studied, with the biggest increases observed in Dushanbe (1.0C) and Dangara (1.2C) districts. Average temperatures in Tajikistan are projected to rise by 1.8-2.9C by 2050. If these forecasts are realized, the 2010-2012 Poverty Reduction Strategy identifies water resources, agriculture, transport infrastructure, and public health as the four main sectors in Tajikistan impacted by climate change. In addition, one of the priority objectives of the country’s national development strategy is to tackle the problems of natural disasters both

2nd National Communication of Tajikistan

2nd National Communication of Tajikistan

2nd National Communication of Tajikistan

2nd National Communication of Tajikistan

2nd National Communication of Tajikistan

2nd National Communication of Tajikistan

2nd National Communication of Tajikistan

2nd National Communication of Tajikistan


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | currently faces? Are there trade-offs, or can long-term climate adaptation be reconciled with nearterm development priorities? The paper offers three main propositions in this regard, and provides various supporting arguments and evidence to buttress them. First, it argues that for developing countries like Tajikistan, faster economic and social development is the best possible defense against climate change (i.e. rather than being a competing consideration). Second, it presents some key findings from a recent nationally representative household survey to illustrate the strong public support for more climate change related spending on agriculture, water management and infrastructure, disaster management, and public health—four key areas that the government’s latest poverty reduction strategy identifies as being especially important from a climate change perspective. Third, the paper argues that important as project-based adaptation measures may be, it is imperative that they be supported by an overall policy framework that provides a truly enabling environment to facilitate faster climate change adaptation. 5. This paper is organized as follows: Section 2 sets the stage for the rest of the paper by briefly reviewing the available evidence for Tajikistan on recent climate change trends and future projections. Section 3 then introduces the special climate change module added to

nationally representative household survey

nationally representative household survey

nationally representative household survey

nationally representative household survey

nationally representative household survey


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | [6] people, who were relocated from Greece to other EU Member States since October 2015, 8,929 (44%) were children, including 329 UASC. When looking at the dynamic of relocations in 2017, the majority of transfers happened in the third quarter with 2,019 relocations taking place between July and September this year. This represents a 9% increase compared to the second quarter, when 1,872 children were relocated, and 15% increase compared to the period between January and March (1,761 relocations). ADULTS **11,439** CHILDREN **8,929** UASC **329** Italy As of September 2017, only 9,267 refugees and migrants were relocated from Italy, including 911 children, out of whom 51 were UASC. In the third quarter of 2017, 238 children benefited from the relocation scheme in Italy, which is more than the number of children relocated in 2015 and 2016 all together. TARGET **39,600** ADULTS **8,356** UASC **51** CHILDREN **911** ##### Returns from Greece to Turkey Of the total returnees (1,360) from Greece to Turkey under the EU-Turkey statement since the start of 2016 until end of October 2017, 76 (5%) were children. All of them were returned with their families. ##### Assisted with Voluntary Return and Reintegration (AVRR) to Children and UASC [7]


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | to Design Better Policies and Interventions, World Bank (2007). [6] CONEVAL - National Council for Evaluation of Social Development Policy in Mexico, www.coneval.gob.mx (2012). [7] CONAPO - Consejo Nacional de Poblacion, www.conapo.gob.mx (2012). [8] Climate Change Knowledge Portal, World Bank, http://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org (2012). [9] Dercon, S. and L. Christiaensen, “Consumption Risk, Technology Adoption, and Poverty Traps: Evidence from Ethiopia”, Volume 96, Issue 2, Pages 159-476., (2011). [10] Hertel, T., M. Burke and D. Lobell, “The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030”, GTAP, Working Paper No. 59 (2010). [11] Informe compilado por R.T Watson y el Core Team, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, “Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Third Assess 19

CONEVAL - National Council for Evaluation of Social Development Policy in Mexico

CONEVAL - National Council for Evaluation of Social Development Policy in Mexico

CONEVAL - National Council for Evaluation of Social Development Policy in Mexico

CONEVAL - National Council for Evaluation of Social Development Policy in Mexico

CONEVAL - National Council for Evaluation of Social Development Policy in Mexico


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | **The World Bank** Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project (P166308) 66. **The project may have very small‐scale land needs for minor extensions of existing health and** **education facilities.** Hence, OP 4.12 (Involuntary Resettlement) is triggered. Land needs (if any) will primarily be met through voluntary land donation, the procedure for which is specified in the Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) included in the ESMF. In case voluntary land donation is not possible, very small‐scale private land acquisition may be undertaken in accordance with the RPF. The building extension and renovation activities will be done in a manner to ensure that the infrastructure needs of women, children, and the differently abled are met. The scale of construction activity is not expected to have major adverse social impacts (including gender‐based violence [GBV]) and the associated social risk is relatively low. However, the remoteness of most project locations and the lack of services for GBV survivors creates challenges for adequate risk mitigation. The qualitative social assessment verified that there has been no incident of violence between host communities and refugees. The ESMF includes screening and mitigation measures to address social impacts and the social assessment provides an initial mapping of GBV support services. **(iii)** **Grievance


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | the 9 matrix cells. Temperatures begin extending into the medium and high regions, while rainfall remains varied and seasonal patterns exhibit significant differences across cells. By the period 2051-2100, all of the low-temperature cells have dropped out while rainfall remains highly varied. The highest-probability cell (56.0%) has high temperature and medium rainfall, while the second-probability cell (27.5%) has medium temperature and medium rainfall. The seasonal pattern of rainfall in the two high-probability cells has roughly the same shape, peaking in the fall. The seasonal rainfall pattern is clearly different in some of the lower-probability cells. **4. Summary and Conclusions** In this paper, we have developed an Ethiopian illustration for a downscaling methodology that summarizes information from historical climate data and future projections from 8 global climate models. This method can be applied to publicly 12


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | [2] -based score that we have computed for the GCM. In effect, we count an observation from the best-fitting GCM as occurring more frequently than an observation from the numeraire (worst-fitting GCM). The relative frequency is the ratio of a GCMs R [2] score to the numeraire score (for the worst-fitting GCM). Once the weighted observations are all assigned to the nine cells for each grid square, we calculate the weighted probability for each cell (total cell score/total of all cell scores). We do this for both future periods, as well as for the historical CRU data (here each observation gets unit value in the count, since all observations are deemed equally reliable). The result is an easily-interpreted template for each grid square, which shows the transition in expected Low-Medium-High incidence of temperature/rainfall pairs from actual recent history, to the relatively near future, and then to the distant future. This provides decision-makers with a clear, simple picture of our best evidence on how the 7


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | areas, expected decline in off‐farm employment opportunities is also likely to increase vulnerability to shocks of households relying on agriculture. It is important that the government prioritizes investments to ensure poverty reduction and human capital losses are quickly offset to bounce back strongly. 3. **Human capital accumulation is low and the impact of COVID‐19 pandemic puts at risk some of** **the gains made in recent years.** According to the World Bank Human Capital Index (HCI), if no improvements in health and education service delivery take place, a Pakistani child born today is expected to be only 40 percent as productive as s/he could be by age 18. With a large share of births taking place outside health facilities (33.8 percent) and low immunization rates (65.6 percent), children are deprived of a strong start to life. High rates of malnutrition and low learning outcomes contribute to the low HCI: 37.6 percent of children under age five are stunted; and learning poverty is very high with 75 percent of Pakistani children not being able to read and understand a short age‐appropriate text by age 10. 4. **Pakistan has adopted a holistic approach to human capital accumulation and protecting human** **capital is at


Input: specificity: named | descriptive | vague usage: primary | supporting | background | the activities. Recognizing the difficulties in fund flows across different line departments, the project will ensure that each implementing agency (IA) plans and executes its activities and maintains its own fiduciary management. (b) **Regular monitoring for accountability and continuous planning.** The project will strengthen existing monitoring system(s), where possible, and pay special attention to building the GoB’s capacity in M&E. To reach the scale of effective innovative interventions, the project will continue planning throughout the process based on the lessons learned from similar initiatives. [46] (c) **Close collaboration with the communities.** Considering significant challenges in Balochistan, the project will engage the communities to improve community ownership and effective implementation. This will be done by (i) engaging religious and community leaders and recruiting personnel from within the communities to the extent possible and (ii) introducing and/or improving a grievance redress mechanism (GRM) to raise awareness and provide a platform for resolving complaints and providing feedback, thus strengthening transparency, and accountability, and enhancing the project’s legitimacy among stakeholders. **III.** **IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS** **A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements** 45. **The project will be implemented by multiple IAs in line with government mandates and through** **the existing governance structures.** At the provincial level, the Health