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        "reliability": [
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.0,
            "bin_hi": 0.1,
            "n": 8352,
            "mean_forecast": 0.0157,
            "observed_frequency": 0.0178
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.1,
            "bin_hi": 0.2,
            "n": 548,
            "mean_forecast": 0.1379,
            "observed_frequency": 0.1715
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.2,
            "bin_hi": 0.3,
            "n": 257,
            "mean_forecast": 0.2384,
            "observed_frequency": 0.2296
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.3,
            "bin_hi": 0.4,
            "n": 44,
            "mean_forecast": 0.338,
            "observed_frequency": 0.0227
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.4,
            "bin_hi": 0.5,
            "n": 36,
            "mean_forecast": 0.461,
            "observed_frequency": 0.3889
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.5,
            "bin_hi": 0.6,
            "n": 17,
            "mean_forecast": 0.5551,
            "observed_frequency": 0.1765
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.7,
            "bin_hi": 0.8,
            "n": 4,
            "mean_forecast": 0.75,
            "observed_frequency": 0.0
          },
          {
            "bin_lo": 0.9,
            "bin_hi": 1.0,
            "n": 5,
            "mean_forecast": 1.0,
            "observed_frequency": 0.2
          }
        ],
        "contingency": {
          "threshold": 0.45,
          "hits": 18,
          "misses": 303,
          "false_alarms": 37,
          "correct_negatives": 8905,
          "pod": 0.0561,
          "far": 0.6727,
          "csi": 0.0503
        },
        "cost_loss": [
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.05,
            "value": 0.4332
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.1,
            "value": 0.28
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.15,
            "value": 0.1296
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.2,
            "value": 0.0327
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.25,
            "value": 0.0177
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.3,
            "value": 0.0067
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.35,
            "value": -0.0036
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.4,
            "value": -0.0052
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.45,
            "value": -0.0071
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.5,
            "value": -0.0093
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.55,
            "value": -0.0121
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.6,
            "value": -0.0156
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.65,
            "value": -0.02
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.7,
            "value": -0.026
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.75,
            "value": -0.0343
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.8,
            "value": -0.0467
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.85,
            "value": -0.0675
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.9,
            "value": -0.109
          },
          {
            "cost_loss_ratio": 0.95,
            "value": -0.2336
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "ri_24h_note": "Class weighting is what makes the model find events at a 3.5 percent base rate, and it is also what destroys the calibration. AUC measures the ranking and rises; the Brier Skill Score measures the probabilities and collapses. A monotone isotonic map fitted on held-out storms repairs the second without changing the first, which is why both are reported for all three rows.",
    "climatology_auc_note": "The climatology row has an AUC below 0.5, which looks like a broken metric and is not. Under leave-one-season-out the climatology forecast for a season is the base rate of every other season, so removing a high-RI season from the mean lowers the forecast for exactly the season that had the most events. Measured correlation between a season's actual RI rate and its own leave-one-season-out climatology prediction is -0.94. A genuinely constant forecast scores exactly 0.5, which the test suite asserts. Climatology is the Brier Skill Score reference and its AUC carries no information."
  },
  "analysis": {
    "imd_ci_regression": {
      "baseline": "IMD Dvorak CI number, quadratic regression",
      "rmse_ci": {
        "point": 7.2765,
        "ci_lo": 6.2429,
        "ci_hi": 8.429,
        "level": 0.95
      },
      "caveat": "CI and the best-track intensity label come from the same Dvorak analysis, so this measures the wind-pressure table rather than an independent method. The specified baseline is the CIMSS ADT archive, which was not pulled in this build.",
      "n": 6407,
      "rmse": 7.276454451426501,
      "mae": 4.168637176485335,
      "bias": 0.015770672594746737,
      "by_intensity": [
        {
          "bin": "17-33 kt (D, DD)",
          "n": 3487,
          "rmse": 3.665405404647403,
          "mae": 3.0687293740543864,
          "bias": 2.8144772242390514
        },
        {
          "bin": "34-47 kt (CS)",
          "n": 1426,
          "rmse": 4.371610822185383,
          "mae": 3.029980308696313,
          "bias": -1.7602708398243156
        },
        {
          "bin": "48-63 kt (SCS)",
          "n": 551,
          "rmse": 10.928723469578236,
          "mae": 7.391933972713178,
          "bias": -7.19084160816632
        },
        {
          "bin": "64-89 kt (VSCS)",
          "n": 544,
          "rmse": 15.034763263825726,
          "mae": 8.129034498979406,
          "bias": -7.972896743808897
        },
        {
          "bin": "90+ kt (ESCS, SuCS)",
          "n": 355,
          "rmse": 13.931885925720598,
          "mae": 7.38523266386036,
          "bias": 1.482752762201002
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "independent_truth_subset": {
    "status": "absent",
    "reason": "NOAA SAR TC Wind was not pulled in this build. No non-Dvorak intensity truth exists here, so no second RMSE is reported.",
    "n_cases": 0
  }
}