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The forecast table, which runs on real best-track predictors, is.", "history": [ { "epoch": 1, "seconds": 262.7, "train_loss": 3.2294, "test_vmax_rmse": 16.697, "test_centre_median_km": 60.01, "test_category_macro_f1": 0.0918, "test_ri_auc": 0.6233, "losses": { "vmax": 0.1906, "pmin": 0.2087, "category": 0.5514, "detection": 0.2796, "dvorak": 0.9707, "regime": 0.5778, "ri": 0.3215, "reintensify": 0.108, "centre": 1.5646 } }, { "epoch": 2, "seconds": 264.7, "train_loss": 1.2147, "test_vmax_rmse": 5.758, "test_centre_median_km": 68.23, "test_category_macro_f1": 0.3888, "test_ri_auc": 0.7957, "losses": { "vmax": -0.8606, "pmin": -0.6238, "category": 0.3345, "detection": 0.2286, "dvorak": 0.5528, "regime": 0.346, "ri": 0.3007, "reintensify": 0.0724, "centre": 1.3475 } }, { "epoch": 3, "seconds": 426.7, "train_loss": 1.0282, "test_vmax_rmse": 6.307, "test_centre_median_km": 73.84, "test_category_macro_f1": 0.5431, "test_ri_auc": 0.7981, "losses": { "vmax": -0.8114, "pmin": -0.6508, 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The grid is storm-centred, so an unjittered target would be the middle of every sample and the head would score zero without learning anything." }, "category": { "n": 786, "macro_f1": 0.9442467581129089, "accuracy": 0.9516539440203562, "confusion": [ [ 236, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 11, 161, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 0, 0, 122, 11, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 0, 0, 5, 102, 2, 0, 0 ], [ 0, 0, 0, 2, 84, 5, 0 ], [ 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 43, 0 ], [ 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ] ], "classes": [ "D", "DD", "CS", "SCS", "VSCS", "ESCS", "SuCS" ], "per_class": [ { "class": "D", "support": 236, "precision": 0.9555, "recall": 1.0, "f1": 0.9772 }, { "class": "DD", "support": 173, "precision": 1.0, "recall": 0.9306, "f1": 0.9641 }, { "class": "CS", "support": 133, "precision": 0.9531, "recall": 0.9173, "f1": 0.9349 }, { "class": "SCS", "support": 109, "precision": 0.887, "recall": 0.9358, "f1": 0.9107 }, { "class": "VSCS", "support": 91, "precision": 0.9655, "recall": 0.9231, "f1": 0.9438 }, { "class": "ESCS", "support": 44, "precision": 0.8958, "recall": 0.9773, "f1": 0.9348 }, { "class": "SuCS", "support": 0, "precision": 0.0, "recall": 0.0, "f1": 0.0 } ] }, "regime": { "n": 797, "macro_f1": 0.7842036779457068, "accuracy": 0.8569636135508155, "confusion": [ [ 252, 0, 10, 0 ], [ 6, 226, 48, 0 ], [ 7, 43, 30, 0 ], [ 0, 0, 0, 175 ] ], "classes": [ "maritime_mature", "sheared", "post_landfall_remnant", "over_land" ], "per_class": [ { "class": "maritime_mature", "support": 262, "precision": 0.9509, "recall": 0.9618, "f1": 0.9564 }, { "class": "sheared", "support": 280, "precision": 0.8401, "recall": 0.8071, "f1": 0.8233 }, { "class": "post_landfall_remnant", "support": 80, "precision": 0.3409, "recall": 0.375, "f1": 0.3571 }, { "class": "over_land", "support": 175, "precision": 1.0, "recall": 1.0, "f1": 1.0 } ] }, "conformal_vmax": { "level": 0.9, "half_width_kt": 2.51, "empirical_coverage": 0.9021, "by_intensity": { "0-34": { "quantile": 0.576, "n": 420, "coverage": 0.9024 }, "34-48": { "quantile": 2.79, "n": 133, "coverage": 0.9098 }, "48-64": { "quantile": 3.265, "n": 109, "coverage": 0.9083 }, "64-90": { "quantile": 3.292, "n": 91, "coverage": 0.9121 }, "90-inf": { "quantile": 5.9, "n": 44, "coverage": 0.9318 } } } }, "ri_head": { "n": 677, "base_rate": 0.056129985228951254, "mean_forecast": 0.04830054006273678, "brier": 0.04270414029803309, "brier_skill_score": 0.193948360157433, "roc_auc": 0.8915657688822997, "reliability": [ { "bin_lo": 0.0, "bin_hi": 0.1, "n": 557, "mean_forecast": 0.0168, "observed_frequency": 0.0215 }, { "bin_lo": 0.1, "bin_hi": 0.2, "n": 55, "mean_forecast": 0.1419, "observed_frequency": 0.0727 }, { "bin_lo": 0.2, "bin_hi": 0.3, "n": 31, "mean_forecast": 0.2414, "observed_frequency": 0.1935 }, { "bin_lo": 0.3, "bin_hi": 0.4, "n": 18, "mean_forecast": 0.3425, "observed_frequency": 0.4444 }, { "bin_lo": 0.4, "bin_hi": 0.5, "n": 16, "mean_forecast": 0.4477, "observed_frequency": 0.5 } ], "contingency": { "threshold": 0.45, "hits": 4, "misses": 34, "false_alarms": 3, "correct_negatives": 636, "pod": 0.1053, "far": 0.4286, "csi": 0.0976, "forecasts_issued": 7 }, "cost_loss": [ { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.05, "value": 0.5962 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.1, "value": 0.4532 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.15, "value": 0.3947 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.2, "value": 0.3289 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.25, "value": 0.2982 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.3, "value": 0.2632 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.35, "value": 0.2227 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.4, "value": 0.1754 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.45, "value": 0.1196 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.5, "value": 0.0526 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.55, "value": 0.0351 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.6, "value": 0.0132 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.65, "value": 0.0 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.7, "value": 0.0 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.75, "value": 0.0 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.8, "value": 0.0 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.85, "value": 0.0 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.9, "value": 0.0 }, { "cost_loss_ratio": 0.95, "value": 0.0 } ] }, "dvorak_head": { "status": "unvalidated", "reason": "Scene labels are weak, derived from the IMD CI number rather than from the CIMSS ADT archive, which was not pulled. No hand-labelled seed set exists, so the head is trained and served but not scored." } }