System:
You are an expert in research tasked with generating detailed prompts for various aspects of academic research papers. Each task involves creating a specific type of prompt based on the provided information. Here are the definitions of each part you will work with:

- Context: The status quo of related literature or reality which motivated this study. This could normally be a problem, a research question, or a research gap that has not been successfully addressed by previous work. This is anything that happened before this study.
- Key Idea: The main intellectual merit of this paper, often in comparison to the context. This could normally be a novel idea or solution proposed in this paper that distinguishes it from what's already done in literature. This is proposed in this study.
- Method: The specific research method that investigates and validates the key idea. This could be an experimental setup, a theoretical framework, or other necessary methodology to implement and/or evaluate the key idea. This is performed in this study.
- Outcome: The factual statement about the study output. This could be the experiment results and any other measurable outcome that has occurred. It marks whether the key hypothesis is testified or not. This is produced in this study.
- Projected Impact: The author-anticipated impact of the work on the field, and potential further research identified by the author that may improve or extend this study. This is anything being anticipated but has not happened yet.

Given the context: 'Single-district election analyses do not guarantee uniqueness of outcomes, majority preference on each policy dimension, or selection of a Condorcet winner; the study examines multidistrict legislative elections with two parties and two binary policy dimensions.' and the key idea: 'Strategic voters concentrate on the policy dimension where their district is most likely to be pivotal in the legislature, and candidates adjust their policy choices in anticipation compared with single-district elections.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical analysis of multidistrict two-party elections with two binary policy dimensions, deriving implications for voter behavior, candidate policy selection, and resulting policy outcomes.


Given the context: 'Wage rigidity is a key explanation for unemployment fluctuations, and while benchmark models focus on wages for new hires, there is limited evidence on this specific margin.' and the key idea: 'Measure wages for new hires using wages posted on vacancies with job and establishment information to test for downward rigidity and asymmetric responsiveness to unemployment.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Analyze posted vacancy wages at the job level, assessing the frequency of wage changes and their responsiveness to rises versus falls in unemployment, using detailed job information to detect rigidity.


Given the context: 'The study considers an allocation problem with equal amounts of N types of goods to be assigned to agents who have strict quasi-convex (mixture-averse) preferences over lotteries.' and the key idea: 'It characterizes ex ante Pareto-efficient allocations under mixture-averse preferences, showing they take the form of binary lotteries for almost all agents, and provides criteria to assess ex ante inefficiency and conditions under which efficient equality can be achieved.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical analysis using preference axioms (strict quasi-convexity, reduction axiom, compound-independence), welfare comparisons, and existence proofs within an allocation model.


Given the context: 'The study seeks to quantify how foreign demand shocks affect firms and real wages, recognizing that firms pass these shocks on to domestic suppliers.' and the key idea: 'The paper introduces firm-specific measures of foreign demand shocks and embeds sizable fixed labor costs and upward-sloping labor supply (monopsony) into a general equilibrium framework to assess wage effects of tariff shocks.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Using Belgian microdata, the authors construct firm-level demand shock measures that capture pass-through to domestic suppliers, estimate firm responses to infer labor supply and fixed labor costs, and simulate tariff shocks in a general equilibrium model with these features.


Given the context: 'The study addresses the questions of for whom earnings risk has changed and why, focusing on changes since the 1980s.' and the key idea: 'A generalized approach that combines the Kalman filter with the EM algorithm is used to estimate persistent and temporary earnings components at the individual level over time.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The authors apply the combined Kalman filter and EM algorithm to administrative earnings data linked with survey information, and use education and occupation codes to analyze patterns and relate changes to technology adoption.


Given the context: 'High school students from non-elite backgrounds have fewer peers with elite-educated parents, and this social capital gap contributes to the intergenerational persistence of elite education.' and the key idea: 'The study identifies a causal elite peer effect on enrollment in elite programs and earnings and disentangles mechanisms, showing the peer influence operates through application behavior conditional on GPA.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The researchers exploit a lottery in assessment for causal identification and use causal mediation analysis to determine how peer effects translate into application behavior.


Given the context: 'The study focuses on understanding how workforce composition, labor demand, and minimum wage influence the wage distribution and the observed decline in Brazilian wage inequality from 1998 to 2012.' and the key idea: 'A theory and estimated model of monopsonistic local labor markets links wages to worker-task assignments, firm wage premiums, and firm-worker sorting, emphasizing the joint and interacting roles of supply, demand, and institutions.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

An estimated model of monopsonistic local labor markets is used to analyze the effects of minimum wage hikes, labor demand shocks, and rising educational attainment on wages, sorting, and inequality.


Given the context: 'Individuals may experience negative utility from not consuming popular products, and standard consumer surplus measures that treat aggregate consumption as given fail to capture welfare when there are externalities to nonusers.' and the key idea: 'An approach is proposed to account for nonuser externalities in measuring consumer welfare, applied to social media platforms and introducing the notion of product market traps where active users prefer the platform not to exist.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Incentivized experiments with college students are conducted, applying the proposed approach to estimate consumer welfare for TikTok and Instagram under standard measures versus measures that account for nonuser externalities.


Given the context: 'There is a need to understand the effects of housing vouchers and urban redevelopment programs, with neighborhood effects on child development being important and insufficiently addressed in prior analyses.' and the key idea: 'Incorporate neighborhood effects into a general equilibrium overlapping-generations model with endogenous location choice and child development to evaluate large-scale rental voucher and place-based subsidy policies.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Calibrate the general equilibrium overlapping-generations model using US data and estimate the impacts of large-scale implementations of rental vouchers and place-based subsidies.


Given the context: 'The paper examines the effects of housing vouchers and urban redevelopment programs on children within a setting that accounts for neighborhood influences and general equilibrium considerations.' and the key idea: 'Incorporating neighborhood effects into a general equilibrium overlapping-generations model with endogenous location choice and child development to analyze the impacts of rental vouchers and place-based subsidies.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A general equilibrium overlapping-generations model with neighborhood effects, endogenous location choice, and child development is calibrated using US data to estimate the impacts of large-scale implementations of rental voucher and place-based subsidy policies.


Given the context: 'The study considers an economy with equal amounts of N types of goods allocated to agents who have strict quasi-convex (mixture-averse) preferences over lotteries, with interest in ex ante Pareto efficiency of allocation mechanisms.' and the key idea: 'It characterizes ex ante Pareto-efficient allocations under mixture-averse preferences, showing they involve lotteries over at most two outcomes for almost all agents, and introduces a simple criterion to identify ex ante inefficiency in many popular mechanisms.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical analysis of allocation under strict quasi-convex preferences over lotteries, deriving efficiency and welfare results using axioms such as reduction and compound independence and examining the case of identical preferences.


Given the context: 'The study seeks to quantify how foreign demand shocks affect firms and real wages, including how such shocks are passed on to domestic suppliers.' and the key idea: 'Construct firm-specific measures of foreign demand shocks from Belgian microdata that capture pass-through to domestic suppliers and incorporate upward-sloping labor supply and fixed labor costs in a general equilibrium model to assess wage impacts of tariff shocks.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Use Belgian microdata to build firm-specific demand shock measures and estimate firms’ responses to infer labor supply curvature and fixed labor costs; specify and simulate a general equilibrium model with these features to quantify aggregate wage effects of tariff shocks.


Given the context: 'It is unclear for whom earnings risk has changed across the skill distribution and what drives these changes, motivating an investigation into persistent and temporary earnings risk.' and the key idea: 'The study proposes a generalized approach that combines the Kalman filter with the EM algorithm to estimate individual-level persistent and temporary earnings components over time, enabling analysis of how changes relate to skill and technology adoption.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The authors apply their Kalman filter–EM algorithm method to administrative earnings data linked with survey data and use education and occupation codes to assess patterns across skill groups and connections to technology adoption.


Given the context: 'High school students from non-elite backgrounds have fewer peers with elite-educated parents, and this social capital difference contributes to the intergenerational persistence of elite education.' and the key idea: 'School social networks, specifically exposure to peers with elite-educated parents, causally influence enrollment in elite programs and labor market earnings, with mechanisms identified through application behavior conditional on GPA.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study exploits a lottery in assessment and uses causal mediation analysis to identify and decompose elite peer effects on enrollment in elite programs and labor market earnings.


Given the context: 'Quid pro quo arrangements (technology for market access) in the Chinese automobile industry raise questions about whether they facilitate knowledge spillovers and quality upgrading.' and the key idea: 'The study proposes identifying knowledge spillovers by exploiting within-product variation across multiple quality dimensions to assess how affiliated domestic automakers converge toward the quality strengths of their joint venture partners, and examines worker flows and supplier networks as channels.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

An empirical identification strategy compares quality strengths across a rich set of dimensions within products, focusing on affiliated domestic models versus their joint venture partners, supplemented by analyses of worker flows and supplier networks as mediators.


Given the context: 'Auto-enrollment in retirement plans is known to raise participation and contributions in the short run, but its longer-run effects and lifetime impact are less documented.' and the key idea: 'The study analyzes the dynamics of auto-enrollment’s impact on retirement savings across short- and medium-run horizons and examines inequality effects. It also introduces a life cycle consumption-savings model to assess lifetime impacts, incorporating a relatively small switching cost.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Using data from over 100 US retirement plans and a representative UK panel, the study measures participation and contribution effects at 12 and 36 months and estimates a life cycle consumption-savings model to fit observed patterns and infer switching costs.


Given the context: 'A college degree is a key pathway to economic mobility for low-income students.' and the key idea: 'Intensive advising in high school and college increases bachelor’s degree attainment primarily by improving the quality of initial college enrollment, suggesting a shift from affordability-only approaches to strategies targeting college choice.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A multisite randomized controlled trial combined with administrative and survey data, leveraging unique preadvising college preference data and causal forest methods to assess mechanisms and treatment effects.


Given the context: 'Higher mortgage rates reduce cash-out refinancing, but it is unclear how this affects total new household borrowing and the transmission of unconventional monetary policy via the cash-out refinance channel.' and the key idea: 'Debt substitution across borrowing products explains declines in cash-out refinancing with higher mortgage rates, implying a weak and non-path-dependent cash-out refinance channel of monetary policy.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study exploits plausibly exogenous interest rate changes from unconventional monetary policy surprises to identify responses of cash-out refinancing and other borrowing and to estimate the elasticity of new household borrowing with respect to mortgage rates.


Given the context: 'Empirical violations of uncovered interest parity and the expectations hypothesis highlight the need to understand time-varying risk premia across currency and bond markets and how monetary policy spillovers operate under market segmentation.' and the key idea: 'A two-country preferred-habitat model with segmented currency and bond investor clienteles and limited-capital arbitrageurs generates connected, time-varying risk premia that reconcile UIP and EH violations and transmit policy shocks internationally.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study develops and analyzes a theoretical model featuring segmented demand in currency and bond markets and arbitrageurs with limited capital to derive implications for term premia, exchange rates, and the effects of bond purchases and short-rate cuts across countries.


Given the context: 'Identifying the optimal set of initial seeds to maximize diffusion in social networks is a widely studied problem, with many studies proposing network centrality-based heuristics.' and the key idea: 'Under the classic independent cascade model, either adding a few randomly chosen additional seeds can produce larger diffusion than optimally selected seeds, or optimal seeding itself results in limited spread.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Analysis across a broad range of random network models within the independent cascade framework, supported by simulations on real-world networks.


Given the context: 'It has been challenging to isolate the component of homeowners’ moving decisions directly attributable to neighbors’ racial identities when studying neighborhood choice and racial change.' and the key idea: 'A novel nearest-neighbor design contrasts move rates for homeowners who receive a new different-race neighbor immediately next-door versus slightly farther away on the same block to isolate preferences attributable to neighbor identity.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study measures move rates under the nearest-neighbor design and assesses robustness with additional controls such as income and alternative research designs.


Given the context: 'Whether the quality of managers affects public service provision, especially in public health, is an open question motivating analysis of public hospital performance.' and the key idea: 'Evaluating a policy that introduced competitive recruitment and higher pay for public hospital CEOs to test if improving manager quality enhances hospital outcomes.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Using novel data from Chilean public hospitals, the study examines the impact of introducing competitive CEO recruitment and better pay on hospital mortality and CEO characteristics, including assessing patient composition and productivity changes.


Given the context: 'Cross-country differences in minimum wages and payroll taxes are common and may affect competition in labor-intensive trade, but the magnitude of these effects has been unclear.' and the key idea: 'Labor market regulations materially shape trade competition in labor-intensive services, making export competitiveness partly dependent on domestic labor policies.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study exploits data from a large European trade program where firms from different countries supply labor services at the same location under differing payroll taxes and minimum wage rules, using country case studies and model-consistent gravity estimates to analyze responses to tax and regulatory reforms.


Given the context: 'Conventional estimates in the literature find a low slope for the output gap–based New Keynesian Phillips curve, prompting interest in the slope of its primitive, cost-based form.' and the key idea: 'A bottom-up approach estimates the slope of the primitive New Keynesian Phillips curve using marginal cost as the real activity variable, and proposes a reconciliation with conventional estimates by linking differences to the output elasticity of marginal cost.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Using quarterly micro data on prices, costs, and output, the study estimates dynamic pass-through regressions that identify the Phillips curve slope as a function of primitive parameters.


Given the context: 'The paper addresses how nonlinear pricing relates to markups and misallocation, a topic where markup heterogeneity is often interpreted as evidence of misallocation.' and the key idea: 'Allowing firms to set quantity-dependent pricing schedules implies that markup heterogeneity is not indicative of misallocation and introduces a new misallocation channel where high-taste consumers receive too much of each good and low-taste consumers too little.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A general equilibrium model with nonlinear (quantity-dependent) pricing is developed and quantified using micro data from the retail sector, with empirical assessment of the prevalence of nonlinear pricing.


Given the context: 'Instrumental variables analysis relies on assumptions like instrumental validity and additive separability, and there is concern about robustness when these assumptions fail.' and the key idea: 'The paper establishes a trade-off in additive instrumental variables models: robustness to failures of instrumental validity or additive separability increases with stronger a priori structural restrictions, reducing flexibility.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study provides theoretical analysis, discusses implications for empirical practice, and includes a numerical study calibrated on real-world data.


Given the context: 'Prior studies reach conflicting conclusions on whether credit drove the 2000s housing cycle, with findings ranging from no effect to explaining most of the cycle.' and the key idea: 'The paper argues that these disparate results depend on how much landlords absorb credit-driven demand, determined by the degree of housing market segmentation, and introduces a model that nests the extremes of no segmentation and perfect segmentation.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The authors develop a model encompassing varying degrees of market segmentation, estimate an elasticity that pins down the degree of segmentation, and use this estimate to calibrate the model.


Given the context: 'Pandemic-related school closures disrupted learning for underprivileged middle school students, prompting reliance on online tutoring as a support modality.' and the key idea: 'The study evaluates a fully online volunteer tutoring program (TOP) using random assignment to measure impacts on students’ cognitive outcomes and soft skills across pandemic and post-pandemic periods, and assesses effects on tutors, while examining dosage and group versus individual tutoring channels.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A randomized assignment design in 2020 and 2022 compares students receiving TOP (three hours per week, individual or group formats) to controls, measuring math performance, aspirations, socioemotional skills, psychological well-being, and tutors’ empathy, and analyzing how dosage and tutoring format influence effects.


Given the context: 'Optimal income taxation must account for spatial equilibrium with migration, heterogeneous locational preferences, labor supply, and competitive housing and labor markets.' and the key idea: 'The study characterizes optimal tax schedules for each community that internalize migration-related fiscal externalities and redistribution between households and landlords, identifying conditions under which transfers to poor areas are optimal or may go either direction.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous locational preferences, labor supply decisions, and competitive housing and labor markets is developed; expressions for optimal taxes are derived and the model is calibrated to US Empowerment Zone areas to quantify transfers and sensitivity to migration responsiveness.


Given the context: 'The study examines how individual political views influence firm behavior and labor market outcomes, using new microdata from Brazil.' and the key idea: 'Business owners’ political preferences shape employment decisions, leading to a higher likelihood of hiring copartisan workers, with evidence favoring a political discrimination channel over political quid pro quo.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The authors use new Brazilian microdata and conduct multiple tests, including surveys, event studies, analyses of wage premia and promotions within firms, and a field experiment.


Given the context: 'International migrants may transmit ideas across countries; the study focuses on how migrant exposure to reproductive health policies relates to origin-country fertility in the Philippines.' and the key idea: 'Migrant exposure to more liberalized reproductive health policies in destination countries can diffuse to origin communities, affecting fertility through changes in contraceptive behavior, with visible policy changes acting as a transmission channel and existing family planning values moderating effects.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

An empirical strategy exploits temporal variation in destination-country reproductive health policies and spatial variation across Philippine provinces in migration intensity and historical composition of migrant destinations.


Given the context: 'Labor markets with asymmetric information create adverse selection, benefiting firms that can identify talent, especially in professions where performance is publicly observable.' and the key idea: 'An informed intermediary exploits its information advantage by threatening to fire agents to expose them to undervaluation and later churning well-performing but less-skilled agents as track records erode its advantage, shaping wages and career choices through reputation-building incentives.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical analysis models intermediated adverse selection with publicly observable performance, studying dynamic interactions among intermediary information advantages, firing/churning strategies, agent reputation formation, and wage setting.


Given the context: 'In 2010–2011, the Swedish Riksbank raised interest rates substantially, reportedly due to financial stability concerns rather than labor market conditions, highlighting uncertainty about the labor market effects of monetary tightening.' and the key idea: 'Treat the Swedish rate-hike episode as a monetary quasi-experiment to identify the causal impact of monetary tightening on unemployment and distributional outcomes, leveraging its deviation from labor-market-driven policy.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Empirical analysis using a battery of specifications designed to rule out domestic and international confounders, combined with administrative microdata to assess sectoral responses and nominal wage rigidity.


Given the context: 'Software has become a disruptive technology and a key asset to price in the digital economy, with firms primarily valued for software growing from 2% to 13% of market share between 1996 and 2023.' and the key idea: 'Persistent anomalies in growth forecasts and stock returns for software companies are interpreted as evidence of Bayesian investors gradually learning about software’s increasing importance, leading to deviations from rational expectations.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Empirical documentation of anomalies by examining growth forecasts and stock returns of software companies over multiple decades to assess deviations from rational expectations and consistency with Bayesian learning.


Given the context: 'The study addresses the need to estimate the long-term effect of public R&D on manufacturing growth, using the Cold War–era US-Soviet space race and NASA’s moonshot program as historical context.' and the key idea: 'A novel empirical strategy leverages US-Soviet rivalry to isolate windfall public R&D spending, using new data from the space race to identify causal effects on manufacturing.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The authors analyze new data on NASA contractor R&D and employ an identification strategy based on exogenous rivalry-induced spending, assessing impacts on manufacturing value added, employment, capital accumulation, and comparing local versus national effects while accounting for migration responses.


Given the context: 'In the US construction industry, firms compete for workers, private market projects, and government procurements, making rents depend on both labor and product market conditions. Assuming perfect competition in one market can bias conclusions about markdowns and markups.' and the key idea: 'The study develops, identifies, and estimates a model that jointly incorporates imperfect competition in both labor and product markets.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A structural model is estimated using bidding data from procurement auctions linked to employer–employee tax records to identify wage markdowns and price markups.


Given the context: 'Firms design bundle menus and need to know when a nested bundling strategy—where more expensive bundles include all goods from less expensive ones—is optimal, particularly when consumers differ along a single dimension.' and the key idea: 'The study introduces a partial order on bundles based on set inclusion and sales quantity when sold alone and shows that, under quasi-concavity, if undominated bundles are nested, then nested bundling is optimal. It also proposes an iterative algorithm to identify the minimal optimal menu as a subset of undominated bundles.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical analysis with consumers differing in one dimension defines a partial order over bundles, uses quasi-concavity assumptions to derive optimality conditions, and develops an iterative algorithm to select the minimal optimal nested menu.


Given the context: 'Saudi Arabia lifted the women's driving ban, raising questions about its impact on women's employment and autonomy.' and the key idea: 'A field experiment randomizes access to rationed driver's training spaces to causally estimate how driving access affects women's employment and purchasing autonomy, including heterogeneity across subgroups.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Randomized allocation of driver's training slots, with outcomes measured on employment likelihood and ability to make purchases without family permission, and analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects.


Given the context: 'In low-income countries, labor market power and employer concentration affect wage-setting, and self-employment is prevalent with implications for industrial development.' and the key idea: 'Self-employment shapes labor market power by increasing the elasticity of wage labor supply in oligopsonistic markets, potentially weakening employer wage-setting power and implying that policies reducing self-employment could backfire.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Empirical analysis using Peruvian data to relate employer concentration, self-employment prevalence, and wage-setting power, complemented by a general equilibrium model of oligopsonistic labor markets.


Given the context: 'The Clean Air Act's offset provision creates local pollution markets where new plants pay incumbents to reduce emissions, motivating an assessment of air pollution regulation efficiency and the need to estimate marginal regulatory costs.' and the key idea: 'Use offset market transaction prices, justified by theory, to reveal marginal abatement costs and compare them to marginal benefits estimated with leading air quality models to evaluate whether regulation is too lenient.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Develop a framework combining theory and transaction data from hundreds of pollutant- and location-specific offset markets to infer marginal abatement costs, and estimate marginal benefits using established air quality models for comparison.


Given the context: 'Predictable uninformed cash flows such as dividend payments are announced weeks in advance, raising the question of whether such flows forecast aggregate market returns.' and the key idea: 'Predictable buying pressure from dividend payments is used to forecast value-weighted aggregate market stock returns, arguing that market-wide price pressure arises from flows.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Empirical analysis relates market returns to the timing of dividend payment days, compares return outcomes across payment-day quintiles, examines international markets, conditions on reinvestment intensity and market liquidity, and estimates a market-level price multiplier.


Given the context: 'The study investigates long-run earnings responses to taxes in the presence of dynamic returns to effort, where responses may be delayed and mediated by job switches.' and the key idea: 'A theoretical model of earnings determination with dynamic returns to effort is developed, predicting delayed, job-switch-mediated responses, and motivating an empirical focus on job switchers to estimate long-run elasticities.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Using Danish administrative data, the authors verify the model’s predictions about earnings and hours over the life cycle and conduct a quasi-experimental analysis of long-run earnings elasticities that exploits variation among job switchers.


Given the context: 'Populist narratives frequently depict intellectual elites as conspiring against them, and existing work has left several features of populism and its effects on political accountability unexplained.' and the key idea: 'Populism is modeled as the dissemination of a false 'alternative reality' that discredits the elite's truthful message and reduces accountability, with conspiratorial elements endogenously chosen to better resist evidence.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical model analyzes voters' receptiveness to an alternative reality, the impact of elite criticism on support for populists, and the populists' policy choices to leverage or strengthen beliefs in the alternative reality.


Given the context: 'The Supplemental Security Income program determines eligibility using a birth weight cutoff of 1,200 grams, motivating an examination of how income support affects at-risk infants and their families over time.' and the key idea: 'The study investigates the long-term effects of additional income from SSI on infants near the eligibility cutoff and their older siblings, assessing impacts on health care use, mortality, and human capital.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Birth certificates are linked to administrative records to compare low-income families of infants born just below the 1,200-gram cutoff to those above, tracking cash benefits and outcomes from infancy through young adulthood.


Given the context: 'Many U.S. colleges have adopted test-optional admissions; a common claim is that not observing standardized test scores can help admit a preferred, e.g., more diverse, class, raising the question of how less information can improve decisions.' and the key idea: 'Test-optional policies are proposed as a response to social pressure on admissions, modeling a college that bears disutility from decisions society dislikes; going test optional reduces its disagreement cost.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical model analyzes admissions under social pressure, including how missing test scores are imputed and the implications for the college, students, and society.


Given the context: 'Incomplete market integration in major U.S. electricity markets creates allocative inefficiencies, and accelerating transmission investment is seen as a way to reduce total costs and improve renewable integration; incumbents may have the power to block reforms.' and the key idea: 'Quantify static allocative inefficiencies from incomplete market integration and analyze firm-level revenue impacts to reveal incumbents’ incentives that could impede transmission expansion and market integration.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Empirical documentation of inefficiencies over time in two major U.S. electricity markets, coupled with counterfactual estimation of firm-level net revenue changes under an integrated market.


Given the context: 'Unemployment insurance take-up involves worker claims and employer appeals, making the employer's role a key factor in program targeting.' and the key idea: 'Quantify employer effects on UI claiming and appeals and examine their negative correlation to understand deterrence and income gradients in take-up.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Quantitative analysis estimating employer-specific effects on claiming and appeals and assessing correlations, alongside comparisons of claim and appeal rates across wage groups.


Given the context: 'An oft-cited hypothesis holds that limited access to contraception contributes to high fertility rates in West Africa.' and the key idea: 'The study tests whether providing free access to modern contraception, and addressing demand-side inefficiencies like misperceptions about child mortality and social norms, reduces fertility.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A randomized trial among 14,545 households in rural Burkina Faso provided free modern contraception for three years, with cross-randomized interventions targeting misperceptions about child mortality and social norms, and measured birth rates.


Given the context: 'The study examines how investment tax credits affect firms, including potential indirect spillovers beyond directly treated firms.' and the key idea: 'Estimate both direct effects and local spillover effects of investment tax credits by leveraging a differential tax credit rate change by firm size in German manufacturing, distinguishing spillovers across input-output linkages, local consumer demand, and within-industry connections.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A quasi-experimental design exploits a firm-size-based change in investment tax credit rates in the German manufacturing sector to identify effects on capital and employment and to measure local spillovers within five kilometers and across industry linkages.


Given the context: 'Cursed equilibrium (CE) has been analyzed in strategic form but does not address multistage games requiring sequential rationality, creating a gap in modeling cursed beliefs in dynamic settings.' and the key idea: 'The paper introduces Cursed Sequential Equilibrium (CSE), extending CE to multistage games by using behavioral strategies and imposing sequential rationality, with defined and characterized properties.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study develops a formal framework for CSE, applies it to signaling games, reputation building, durable goods monopoly, and the dirty faces game, and provides laboratory experimental evidence on its empirical relevance.


Given the context: 'Economists often assume specific functional forms for demand curves to derive welfare conclusions, prompting concern over the sensitivity of these conclusions to such assumptions.' and the key idea: 'Introduce robustness measures that quantify how much the true demand curve must deviate from common functional form assumptions to overturn a welfare conclusion, parameterized by the demand curve’s gradient and curvature.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Leverage tools from information design to construct and compute the robustness measures, and illustrate their flexibility and usability through empirical applications.


Given the context: 'School districts historically used suspensions to protect classmates, accepting harm to perceived offenders as part of a retributive approach to discipline.' and the key idea: 'Restorative practices emphasizing reparation, accountability, and shared ownership offer an alternative approach intended to address undesirable behavior without harming students, and their adoption is evaluated in a large urban district.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study analyzes Chicago Public Schools’ adoption of restorative practices and examines disciplinary and academic outcomes, including suspensions, arrests, and test score value added.


Given the context: 'Common-value auction models with noisy signals yield Bayesian Nash equilibrium predictions, and when common values can be estimated these predictions are testable against observed data.' and the key idea: 'The study introduces robust tests, not reliant on specific signal structure assumptions, to assess whether observed auction data could have been generated by a Bayesian Nash equilibrium.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The authors design a series of equilibrium-consistency tests and apply them to oil and gas lease auctions in New Mexico, using ex post outcomes to estimate common values and analyze participation and bidding behavior.


Given the context: 'The study examines changes in political discourse during campaigns, focusing on how candidates adjust their platforms between the first/primary round and the second/general election round.' and the key idea: 'Candidates strategically adjust their platforms toward the center and toward the platforms of opponents who advance to the final round, consistent with Downsian competition.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Using a novel dataset of US House candidate websites (2002–2016) and French parliamentary and local election manifestos (1958–2022), the study compares ideology and rhetorical complexity across rounds and employs a regression discontinuity design exploiting narrow qualification thresholds.


Given the context: 'There is an open question whether public sector organizations, especially in low-income countries, can improve worker performance by investing in mission motivation.' and the key idea: 'Training designed to strengthen workers' mission motivation is proposed as a strategy to boost public sector performance.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A randomized field experiment with community health workers in Pakistan evaluates the impact of mission-motivation training on performance across core monthly household visits and other tasks, and on child health outcomes.


Given the context: 'The study investigates how expectations about long-run home price growth shape household spending decisions.' and the key idea: 'Expectations are exogenously varied by providing different expert home price forecasts to respondents, enabling identification of spending responses and comparison between homeowners and renters.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A field experiment with US households manipulates expectations via randomized expert forecasts in a survey and measures subsequent spending using rich home-scanner data.


Given the context: 'The study examines the challenge of eliminating harmful social norms and focuses on whether intermediate actions can assist in norm transitions, with female genital cutting in Somalia as a case.' and the key idea: 'A model is proposed to identify conditions under which an intermediate action functions as a stepping stone or becomes a new norm, based on the relative size of social penalties and intrinsic utility benefits, alongside an econometric test for stepping-stone status.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The authors derive conditions within their theoretical model and propose an econometric approach, applying it to original data on female genital cutting in Somalia to test the stepping-stone hypothesis.


Given the context: 'The US net foreign asset position has declined sharply since 2007, reaching negative 60 percent of GDP by the third quarter of 2023.' and the key idea: 'An international macrofinance model is developed to link flows, stocks, asset valuations, the current account, and the net foreign asset position to interpret recent US trends and assess welfare implications.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study constructs and analyzes a theoretical international macrofinance model that integrates valuation effects with external balances to interpret the US net foreign asset position.


Given the context: 'Underrepresented populations in science often receive less research focus, motivating the question of whether diversity can shift research priorities; between 1960 and 1990, 76 all-male US universities transitioned to coeducation.' and the key idea: 'The study posits that increases in undergraduate gender diversity through coeducation can redirect scientific research toward gender-related topics.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A generalized difference-in-differences design exploits the staggered coeducation transitions at 76 universities (1960–1990), tracking changes in gender-related research publications and decomposing contributions from changes in researcher composition and incumbent researchers’ topic choices.


Given the context: 'The study examines how a large increase in the price level transmits to the real economy through firm balance sheets, using the German inflation episode of 1919–1923 as the setting.' and the key idea: 'It proposes and tests a debt-inflation channel in which inflation reduces firms’ real debt burdens and influences real outcomes, operating even when prices and wages are flexible.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Newly digitized macro- and micro-level data from the German inflation of 1919–1923 are analyzed to link firms’ nominal liabilities at the onset of inflation to changes in interest expenses, equity values, employment, and bankruptcies.


Given the context: 'Children often spend years in foster care, with bureaucratic hurdles unnecessarily prolonging stays; Chile introduced the Mi Abogado program to enhance legal aid and accelerate family reunification.' and the key idea: 'The study evaluates the impact of enhanced legal aid for foster children via the Mi Abogado program, leveraging a government-randomized rollout to assess effects on child well-being.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A randomized trial of the program’s introduction for children in institutions, analyzed using registry data to measure outcomes including foster care duration, maltreatment, placements, criminal justice involvement, and school attendance.


Given the context: 'Standard theory assumes a one-to-one mapping between firms’ discount rates and the cost of capital, and there is a recent puzzle of “missing investment.”' and the key idea: 'Construct a dataset of firms’ discount rates and perceived cost of capital from corporate conference calls to document and analyze discount rate wedges that deviate from standard theory.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Extract discount rates and perceived cost of capital from corporate conference calls and empirically assess their relation over time and across firms, linking wedges to investment behavior.


Given the context: 'The paper reviews prior work on comparative development, colonialism, institutional change, and innovation, emphasizing how periods of disruption can amplify small differences in affecting prosperity and institutional trajectories.' and the key idea: 'A simple framework centered on a utility-technology possibilities frontier is introduced to organize how institutions, market structures, norms, and ideologies influence resource distribution and technological choices.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical framework is developed to formalize movements along and shifts of the utility-technology frontier and to connect insights from research on institutions and technology.


Given the context: 'Geographic dispersion of depositors, borrowers, and banks may impede the flow of funding to high-loan-demand areas, limiting access to credit.' and the key idea: 'The study introduces a novel measure of geographic imbalance and a structural model of bank competition that incorporates interconnections across locations and between deposit and loan markets to assess the roles of branch networks, market power, and scope economies.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Using bank-county-year-level data, the authors estimate the structural competition model and conduct counterfactual experiments to evaluate how branch networks, scope economies, and local competition contribute to geographic imbalances in deposits and loans.


Given the context: 'Social movements drive institutional change but must coordinate members’ views and actions to succeed; the study focuses on Myanmar’s burgeoning labor movement.' and the key idea: 'The paper examines union leaders’ selection on ability and influence-related personality traits and tests their causal role in building consensus and mobilization within labor unions.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study uses group discussions about an upcoming national minimum wage negotiation with randomly embedded union leaders to assess consensus building, and an experiment mimicking individual decision-making in a collective action setup to measure mobilization.


Given the context: 'During the European sovereign debt crisis, the Portuguese government cut public procurement by 4.3 percent of GDP, motivating analysis of how such fiscal contractions propagate through the banking system.' and the key idea: 'Cuts to public procurement transmit to bank credit supply by saddling banks with nonperforming loans from government contractors, creating a persistent credit contraction; the study quantifies this link via a bank-level elasticity.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Empirical measurement of the effects of Portugal’s procurement cuts on banks and their lending, estimating a bank-level elasticity of credit supply with respect to procurement demand, complemented by a general equilibrium model to assess macroeconomic effects.


Given the context: 'Tranching of asset-backed securities is commonly observed, and issuers face the problem of raising capital from investors who differ in risk aversion and budget constraints for assets with stochastic returns.' and the key idea: 'Using mechanism design combined with risk-measure theory, the paper proposes an optimal security design that partitions the asset’s cash flow into investor-type-specific securities, explaining tranching as an endogenous outcome.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical mechanism design model incorporating risk measures analyzes a cash-constrained issuer allocating stochastic asset cash flows to investors with heterogeneous risk aversion and budgets, characterizing the optimal partition of securities.


Given the context: 'A large literature has focused on targeting antipoverty programs to the most deprived (e.g., by consumption), but the trade-off with targeting those most impacted remains underexplored.' and the key idea: 'The study examines the trade-off between targeting deprivation and impact, proposing proxy means tests that jointly target both objectives using machine learning and dynamic outcome data.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

In the context of an NGO cash transfer program in Kenya, the authors employ recent machine learning methods and dynamic outcome data to learn proxy means tests that balance targeting impact and deprivation.


Given the context: 'Online labor platforms for short-term remote work have far more job seekers than available jobs, raising questions about who captures surplus from transactions.' and the key idea: 'Despite worker abundance, workers capture a substantial share of transaction surplus due to demand-side search frictions and worker differentiation that limit direct competition, and traditional employment regulations would diminish market activity.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study uses demand estimation to infer wage markups over costs, conducts a survey to validate surplus estimates, and analyzes the effects of applying traditional employment regulations on job posting and hiring rates.


Given the context: 'Entry is a fundamental threat to cartels, and the largest price-fixing case in US history involving generic drug manufacturing provides a setting to examine this dynamic.' and the key idea: 'The study assesses whether entry remedies collusion by quantifying the effects of entry and regulatory approval delays on cartel outcomes, using linked data on cartel operations, regulatory filings, and market conditions.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The analysis links internal cartel information to regulatory filings and market data, estimates a structural model, and conducts counterfactual simulations to evaluate entry and regulatory delays.


Given the context: 'A growing mental health crisis and shortage of behavioral health specialists lead to long wait times for care, raising concerns about outcomes for veterans experiencing mental health emergencies.' and the key idea: 'The study examines how clinic congestion and treatment delays, specifically wait times between emergency department visits and follow-up appointments, affect long-term mortality among veterans.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

An analysis of veterans’ mental health emergency cases links wait times between the emergency department visit and follow-up appointment to missed follow-ups, disengagement from care, and two-year mortality.


Given the context: 'Nudges such as simplified information and warning labels are used in markets with taxes and endogenous prices, but prior studies largely emphasize average effects without a clear welfare characterization under these conditions.' and the key idea: 'A public finance sufficient statistic framework is introduced to assess the welfare effects of nudges, highlighting that welfare depends on changes in the variance of choice distortions and that average effects can be irrelevant with zero pass-through or optimal taxes.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The framework is implemented with experiments evaluating automotive fuel economy labels and sugary drink health labels to observe how these labels affect purchasing behavior.


Given the context: 'There was previously no evidence on how workers invest in human capital after losing ability, such as through work-related injuries.' and the key idea: 'The study provides the first evidence that after physical injuries, workers enroll in bachelor's programs that build on their prior training and experience, and evaluates how institutional differences in the stackability of degrees shape reskilling outcomes.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Using Danish administrative data and quasi-random work accidents, the study exploits institutional variation in degree stackability to estimate the effects of higher education on employment, earnings, and benefit receipt, including assessing the fiscal returns to reskilling subsidies.


Given the context: 'Consumers often continue to pay for subscriptions they no longer value, creating a potential benefit for firms that sell subscriptions.' and the key idea: 'Leverage payment card replacement episodes and stylized models of consumer inertia (inattention and switching costs) to identify and quantify how cancellation frictions elevate subscription revenues, and assess regulatory remedies.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Analyze comprehensive data from a large payment card network to compare cancellation rates in months when cards are replaced (requiring active renewal), and estimate two stylized inertia models to quantify revenue effects and simulate regulatory impacts.


Given the context: 'Household decision-making models often assume couples coordinate efficiently when allocating retirement contributions, such as maximizing employer match rates across spouses' accounts.' and the key idea: 'The study investigates whether couples allocate retirement savings to the spouse’s account with the highest employer match and uses combined administrative and survey evidence to document and explain inefficiencies in this allocation.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Using a new administrative dataset covering over one million US individuals, the study analyzes contribution allocations relative to employer match rates and assesses commonality, cost, and persistence, while ruling out inertia, auto-enrollment, and simple heuristics; an online survey probes underlying reasons including trust and commitment within households.


Given the context: 'There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in household carbon emissions, raising questions about the relative roles of individual characteristics versus location in driving emissions.' and the key idea: 'The study proposes estimating place effects—the change in carbon emissions for the same household living in different places—by leveraging movers to separate the influence of places from people.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Using two decades of administrative Decennial Census and American Community Survey data, the study exploits household moves to estimate place effects for nearly 1,000 U.S. cities and approximately 61,500 neighborhoods.


Given the context: 'Classical and stronger notions of risk aversion and comparative risk aversion exist in the literature, including Arrow-Pratt, Rothschild-Stiglitz, Yaari, and Ross.' and the key idea: 'Risk aversion is fully captured by the propensity to seize insurance opportunities, providing a new foundation that links standard and stronger notions to full or partial insurance.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study offers theoretical characterizations that relate established definitions of risk aversion and comparative risk aversion to propensities for full or partial insurance.


Given the context: 'There is a need to understand global public attitudes toward climate change and policies, including factors driving support and the influence of different types of information.' and the key idea: 'Support for climate policies hinges on three perceptions—policy effectiveness in reducing emissions, impacts on low-income households, and effects on one's own household—and mechanism-focused educational videos can increase support.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Large-scale cross-country surveys of 40,000 respondents in 20 countries, collecting attitudes and backgrounds, and testing information treatments via educational videos with different content.


Given the context: 'The transition toward an intangible-intensive economy coincides with rising corporate savings, growing leverage of financial intermediaries, declining interest rates, and elevated asset valuations, motivating an explanation of these secular trends.' and the key idea: 'Intangible capital’s limited pledgeability leads firms to hoard liquidity, generating a self-perpetuating corporate savings glut that supplies cheap leverage to intermediaries, bids up asset prices, and increases financial fragility.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study develops a macrofinance model that links firms’ investment in intangibles and liquidity hoarding with intermediaries’ leverage and asset price dynamics.


Given the context: 'Ethnically diverse countries are more prone to conflict, but it is unclear why some ethnic groups engage in civil conflict while others do not.' and the key idea: 'Civil conflict in Africa is explained by ethnic groups’ cultural distance to the central government, proxied by linguistic distance, with greater cultural distance increasing the propensity to fight over government power.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study identifies the effect by leveraging within-ethnicity variation in linguistic distance caused by power transitions between ethnic groups over time, and examines preferences over the allocation and type of public goods to assess mechanisms.


Given the context: 'Trade liberalization following China’s entry into the WTO increased import competition, affecting sectors and banks with loan portfolios concentrated in exposed industries.' and the key idea: 'The paper identifies an endogenous credit-supply contraction as a financial channel of trade shocks: banks exposed to China-import competition experience higher nonperforming loans and cut credit to firms regardless of sector, amplifying and spreading the shock.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

An empirical analysis exploits variation from China’s WTO entry and banks’ sectoral loan portfolio concentrations to assess changes in nonperforming loans, credit supply to firms, and subsequent firm outcomes.


Given the context: 'Data-driven innovation in socially impactful digital products faces challenges in measuring and improving social impact, particularly when designing and analyzing complex experiments.' and the key idea: 'The paper offers an economic perspective on the innovation process, positioning economists as designers who leverage complex experiments and economic tools to identify problems, build theory, define measurable goals, analyze data, and estimate counterfactuals.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A conceptual synthesis and survey that outlines how economic tools apply at each stage of the innovation process and reviews recently developed tools for designing and analyzing data from complex experiments.


Given the context: 'The study addresses how quickly fiat money becomes valueless during speculative hyperinflations in continuous-time decentralized markets where money is essential.' and the key idea: 'It provides necessary and sufficient conditions for money to die in finite time, including the necessary condition that the liquidity return of money grows without bound as its value approaches zero, and characterizes determinants of money longevity under CRRA preferences.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical analysis of speculative hyperinflation equilibria in continuous-time decentralized economies, deriving conditions and comparative statics under CRRA preferences, including the roles of seller market power, legal restrictions, and competing currencies' returns.


Given the context: 'Conventional wisdom holds that competition among investors is so fierce that if one group changes behavior, others adjust so prices remain unaffected.' and the key idea: 'The study estimates a demand system that allows for flexible strategic responses among institutional investors to assess how competitive the stock market is and how passive investing affects demand elasticity.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Estimation of a demand system for institutional investors in the US stock market that incorporates strategic reactions to others' aggressiveness.


Given the context: 'China is internationalizing its domestic bond market and has experienced episodes of capital outflows, motivating analysis of its strategy for admitting foreign investors.' and the key idea: 'A dynamic reputation model is proposed to explain China’s staggered entry of different types of foreign investors as a way to build credibility as a safe issuer while mitigating the cost of capital flight.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study empirically characterizes the sequencing of foreign investor entry into China’s bond market and develops a dynamic reputation framework, which is applied to interpret responses to capital outflow episodes.


Given the context: 'Land market frictions are suspected to cause misallocation in agriculture, but causal evidence on their impact has been limited.' and the key idea: 'The study tests whether reducing land rental frictions via randomized subsidies to owners induces rentals that improve allocation and reveals the nature of frictions such as search, risk, and learning.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A field experiment in western Kenya randomly subsidized landowners to rent out land and measured rental persistence, output, value added, input use, and crop choices, comparing outcomes between owners and renters.


Given the context: 'A recent U.S. incentive auction repurposed spectrum from broadcast TV to mobile broadband, and TV station ownership is significantly concentrated among multilicense owners within the reverse auction format.' and the key idea: 'Ownership concentration creates incentives for multilicense owners to strategically withhold some stations to raise prices for their remaining stations in the reverse auction.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study documents multilicense ownership and uses a large-scale valuation and simulation exercise to assess incentives and payout effects in the reverse auction.


Given the context: 'Concerns about government bailouts of globally systemically important banks (GSIBs), highlighted by the Global Financial Crisis, raised the issue of 'too big to fail.'' and the key idea: 'The study estimates a decline in 'too big to fail' by assessing market-implied bailout probabilities and debt financing costs for US-headquartered GSIBs.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

It analyzes market-implied probabilities of government bailout and wholesale debt financing costs for GSIBs with US headquarters, controlling for insolvency risk, in the post-GFC period.


Given the context: 'The study addresses how central bank policies affect mortgage pricing in the United Kingdom and seeks to understand lenders' pricing strategies under such policies.' and the key idea: 'Lenders use two-part tariffs (interest rates plus origination fees) to price discriminate across borrowers, and unconventional monetary policies shift the balance by reducing rates while increasing fees; banning origination fees would alter lending by removing a key discrimination tool.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A model of mortgage demand and lender competition is used to analyze pricing responses and the effects of central bank policies, including the Funding for Lending Scheme.


Given the context: 'Multinationals in extractive sectors of weak states face resource theft by armed groups, often abetted by state corruption. Nigeria’s indigenization policy substantially increased local firms’ participation in the oil sector.' and the key idea: 'Political connections can align law enforcement incentives, reducing oil theft and turning corruption into a local advantage for domestic firms. A bargaining model explains how such connections solve commitment problems in protection.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study uses a bargaining model and analyzes data on law enforcement raids to identify preferential protection for local firms and its effects after indigenization.


Given the context: 'Application hassles ('ordeals') are used to limit public program enrollment, and insurance markets commonly feature adverse selection.' and the key idea: 'Examining a minor ordeal created by removing health insurance auto-enrollment, the study argues that in selection markets adverse selection undermines the standard rationale for ordeals that aim to exclude low-value individuals.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

An empirical analysis of the removal of an auto-enrollment policy that added an extra enrollment step, combined with a simple model to assess how adverse selection interacts with ordeals.


Given the context: 'A prominent energy regulation targeting large Chinese manufacturers within conglomerates raises questions about firm responses and spillovers across affiliated firms and markets.' and the key idea: 'The study examines how regulation within conglomerates affects production and energy efficiency, introducing an industry equilibrium model with conglomerate production to capture spillovers and assess welfare and alternative policy designs using business network information.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Using detailed firm-level data and difference-in-differences designs, the analysis measures regulated firms’ responses and interprets them through an industry equilibrium model that incorporates conglomerate and market spillovers.


Given the context: 'Electricity generators frequently stop and start production in response to rooftop solar output, and firms face fixed start-up costs they expect to recover through subsequent operating profits. Market power is often assessed via static markups.' and the key idea: 'Develop a dynamic competitive benchmark that accounts for start-up costs, revealing that static markups overstate rents attributable to market power in such settings.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

Construct and analyze a dynamic competitive benchmark for an electricity market with start-up costs, comparing its implications to those from static markup measures and examining effects of solar expansion on competition.


Given the context: 'There is uncertainty about whether consumers have latent demand to support Black-owned businesses, and an online platform introduced a feature that made it easier to identify Black-owned restaurants.' and the key idea: 'Revealing minority ownership status by labeling restaurants as Black-owned on a platform is proposed as a way to uncover latent demand and assess impacts on engagement and performance.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study analyzes the introduction of a labeling feature on an online platform, measuring changes in online traffic, calls, orders, in-person visits, and the composition of reviewers to assess the effect of revealing race.


Given the context: 'The study addresses how to regulate a monopolistic firm, focusing on policy design under uncertainty rather than relying on Bayesian assumptions.' and the key idea: 'A robust, non-Bayesian framework is proposed that minimizes the regulator’s worst-case regret, yielding policy prescriptions tailored to different regulatory objectives.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical robust-design approach that defines regret as the gap between complete-information and realized payoffs and derives policies that minimize worst-case regret for different objective functions.


Given the context: 'Applicants commonly hedge by applying to reaches, matches, and safeties, and admissions outcomes across schools can be correlated, motivating a need to rationalize this practice.' and the key idea: 'A simultaneous-search framework with correlated admissions outcomes across schools shows that rejections are informative and rationalizes targeting both safeties and reaches, complemented by an algorithm for computing the optimal application portfolio.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study develops a theoretical model of simultaneous search with correlation in admissions, analyzes optimal portfolios under varying beliefs, risk attitudes, and application costs, and provides a polynomial-time algorithm to obtain the optimal portfolio.


Given the context: 'The study examines wage stickiness on the layoff margin and the efficiency of worker-employer separations in the labor market.' and the key idea: 'An innovative survey of unemployment insurance recipients is used to quantify willingness to accept pay cuts to avoid layoffs and to document the rarity of pay/benefit/hour negotiations, providing evidence on wage stickiness and inefficient separations.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The authors field a survey of UI recipients to elicit acceptance of pay cuts of varying sizes, collect reports of worker-employer discussions about adjustments in lieu of layoffs, and assess whether layoffs meet theoretical conditions for bilaterally efficient separations.


Given the context: 'The study examines how voters’ short-term memory affects political outcomes within a framework that views politics as a collective learning process.' and the key idea: 'Short-term memory in voters can endogenously generate cycles of polarization and consensus across party platforms by altering the informational environment and parties’ incentives.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical analysis models politics as collective learning with voters who have short-term memory, deriving implications for party platform dynamics under varying informational conditions.


Given the context: 'In households where women regularly receive transfers from their husbands for household purchases, reputation dynamics within the household can influence financial decisions.' and the key idea: 'A signaling model is proposed in which wives seek to maintain a good reputation to secure high transfers, leading them to avoid risky purchases and to knowingly overuse low-return goods to conceal bad purchase decisions, termed the intrahousehold sunk cost effect.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The study develops a signaling model and provides supportive evidence through a series of experiments with married couples in rural Malawi.


Given the context: 'The study addresses the challenge of achieving robust behavioral change among disadvantaged adolescents in school settings.' and the key idea: 'A behavioral targeting program grants status and leverages self-persuasion by enlisting socially connected senior middle school students with high emotional intelligence as student-teachers to deliver a curriculum to their junior peers.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

The intervention recruits these student-teachers to deliver a curriculum and evaluates effects on disciplinary incidents, antisocial behavior, the social environment, and admissions to selective high schools for student-teachers and their friendship networks.


Given the context: 'Debate over whether central banks should keep inflation targets fixed and the presence of persistent private information at the central bank motivate a study of target design under asymmetric information.' and the key idea: 'A dynamic inflation target mechanism is proposed that delegates to the central bank the authority to adjust the target’s level and flexibility one period in advance, implementing the full-information commitment allocation.', recommend one method to validate this idea. Output only the method without explanation.

A theoretical dynamic mechanism design framework between a government and a central bank with persistent private information about structural shocks, where firms form inflation expectations based on the central bank’s reports.