#!/usr/bin/env python3 """Evaluate the eligible cross-output precision proxy leave one output out. For each assessed output, its source picks are removed and the remaining picks are reclustered with the released strict-span rule. Assessed picks and external candidates are then assigned one-to-one within ``delta``. Eligibility is queried at the assessed-pick time. An optional station-day circular time-shift null is calculated for one declared output without changing its daily pick count. """ from __future__ import annotations import argparse import csv import json import math import sqlite3 import sys import zlib from collections import defaultdict from pathlib import Path from typing import Any, Iterable import numba import numpy as np import orjson import zstandard as zstd ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] if str(ROOT) not in sys.path: sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT)) from scripts.build_all_model_phase_catalog import cluster_group DAY_US = 86_400_000_000 PERIODS = { "2019": (1_561_939_200_000_000, 1_562_544_000_000_000), "2021": (1_636_329_600_000_000, 1_636_934_400_000_000), } @numba.njit(cache=True) def assign_sorted_one_to_one( assessed: np.ndarray, candidates: np.ndarray, tolerance_us: int, ) -> np.ndarray: """Return candidate indices using deterministic earliest-feasible matching.""" assigned = np.full(len(assessed), -1, dtype=np.int64) i = 0 j = 0 while i < len(assessed) and j < len(candidates): if candidates[j] < assessed[i] - tolerance_us: j += 1 elif assessed[i] < candidates[j] - tolerance_us: i += 1 else: assigned[i] = j i += 1 j += 1 return assigned def period_for_time(time_us: int) -> str | None: for period, (left, right) in PERIODS.items(): if left <= time_us < right: return period return None def load_eligibility( path: Path, ) -> tuple[dict[tuple[str, str, int], tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray]], dict[int, str]]: con = sqlite3.connect(path) names = { int(output_id): str(output_name) for output_id, output_name in con.execute( "SELECT output_id, output_name FROM outputs ORDER BY output_id" ) } grouped: dict[tuple[str, str, int], list[tuple[int, int]]] = defaultdict(list) for station, output_id, left, right, phase_mask in con.execute( """ SELECT station_id, output_id, processed_start_us, processed_end_us, phase_mask FROM eligibility_intervals WHERE valid_input=1 ORDER BY station_id, output_id, processed_start_us, processed_end_us """ ): if int(phase_mask) & 1: grouped[(str(station), "P", int(output_id))].append((int(left), int(right))) if int(phase_mask) & 2: grouped[(str(station), "S", int(output_id))].append((int(left), int(right))) con.close() result = { key: ( np.asarray([left for left, _ in values], dtype=np.int64), np.asarray([right for _, right in values], dtype=np.int64), ) for key, values in grouped.items() } return result, names def eligibility_count( times: np.ndarray, station: str, phase: str, excluded_output: int, intervals: dict[tuple[str, str, int], tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray]], output_count: int, ) -> np.ndarray: counts = np.zeros(len(times), dtype=np.uint8) for output_id in range(output_count): if output_id == excluded_output: continue item = intervals.get((station, phase, output_id)) if item is None: continue starts, ends = item indices = np.searchsorted(starts, times, side="right") - 1 valid = indices >= 0 safe = np.maximum(indices, 0) valid &= ends[safe] >= times counts += valid.astype(np.uint8) return counts def shifted_station_day_times( times: np.ndarray, station: str, replicate: int, ) -> np.ndarray: shifted = np.empty_like(times) days = times // DAY_US for day in np.unique(days): mask = days == day seed = zlib.crc32(f"{station}:{int(day)}:{replicate}".encode("utf-8")) offset_s = 60 + seed % 541 day_start = int(day) * DAY_US shifted[mask] = day_start + ( (times[mask] - day_start + offset_s * 1_000_000) % DAY_US ) shifted.sort() return shifted def iter_station_phase_groups(path: Path) -> Iterable[tuple[str, str, np.ndarray, np.ndarray]]: current_key: tuple[str, str] | None = None times: list[int] = [] models: list[int] = [] with path.open("rb") as raw: with zstd.ZstdDecompressor().stream_reader(raw) as reader: buffer = b"" while True: chunk = reader.read(8 * 1024 * 1024) if not chunk: break buffer += chunk lines = buffer.split(b"\n") buffer = lines.pop() for line in lines: if not line: continue record = orjson.loads(line) key = (str(record["s"]), str(record["p"])) if current_key is not None and key != current_key: if len(times) > 1 and any(a > b for a, b in zip(times, times[1:])): order = np.argsort(np.asarray(times), kind="stable") times = [times[index] for index in order] models = [models[index] for index in order] yield ( current_key[0], current_key[1], np.asarray(times, dtype=np.int64), np.asarray(models, dtype=np.uint8), ) times = [] models = [] current_key = key base = int(record["t"]) for member in record["x"]: models.append(int(member[0])) times.append(base + int(member[2])) if buffer.strip(): record = orjson.loads(buffer) key = (str(record["s"]), str(record["p"])) if current_key is not None and key != current_key: if len(times) > 1 and any(a > b for a, b in zip(times, times[1:])): order = np.argsort(np.asarray(times), kind="stable") times = [times[index] for index in order] models = [models[index] for index in order] yield ( current_key[0], current_key[1], np.asarray(times, dtype=np.int64), np.asarray(models, dtype=np.uint8), ) times = [] models = [] current_key = key base = int(record["t"]) for member in record["x"]: models.append(int(member[0])) times.append(base + int(member[2])) if current_key is not None: if len(times) > 1 and any(a > b for a, b in zip(times, times[1:])): order = np.argsort(np.asarray(times), kind="stable") times = [times[index] for index in order] models = [models[index] for index in order] yield ( current_key[0], current_key[1], np.asarray(times, dtype=np.int64), np.asarray(models, dtype=np.uint8), ) def accumulate( counters: dict[tuple[Any, ...], list[int]], key_prefix: tuple[Any, ...], assessed: np.ndarray, external_times: np.ndarray, external_support: np.ndarray, eligible_m: np.ndarray, delta_us: int, q0: float, m0: int, ) -> None: assignments = assign_sorted_one_to_one(assessed, external_times, delta_us) for period in PERIODS: left, right = PERIODS[period] mask = (assessed >= left) & (assessed < right) if not np.any(mask): continue m = eligible_m[mask] assigned = assignments[mask] denominator = m >= m0 matched = assigned >= 0 k = np.zeros(len(assigned), dtype=np.uint8) k[matched] = external_support[assigned[matched]] corroborated = denominator & matched & (k / np.maximum(m, 1) >= q0) values = counters.setdefault((*key_prefix, period), [0, 0, 0]) values[0] += int(mask.sum()) values[1] += int(denominator.sum()) values[2] += int(corroborated.sum()) def main() -> None: parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__) parser.add_argument( "--candidates", type=Path, default=ROOT / "data/label/all_model_phase_picks.jsonl.zst", ) parser.add_argument( "--eligibility", type=Path, default=ROOT / "data/label/output_eligibility.sqlite", ) parser.add_argument( "--output-tsv", type=Path, default=ROOT / "data/validation/leave_one_output_precision_proxy.tsv", ) parser.add_argument( "--output-json", type=Path, default=ROOT / "data/validation/leave_one_output_precision_proxy.json", ) parser.add_argument("--cluster-span-s", type=float, default=1.5) parser.add_argument("--delta-s", type=float, default=0.5) parser.add_argument("--q0", type=float, default=0.5) parser.add_argument("--m0", type=int, default=6) parser.add_argument("--null-output", default="seismicxm.01") parser.add_argument("--null-replicates", type=int, default=20) args = parser.parse_args() intervals, output_names = load_eligibility(args.eligibility) name_to_id = {name: output_id for output_id, name in output_names.items()} if args.null_output not in name_to_id: raise KeyError(f"null output is absent from registry: {args.null_output}") null_output = name_to_id[args.null_output] model_count = len(output_names) cluster_us = int(round(args.cluster_span_s * 1_000_000)) delta_us = int(round(args.delta_s * 1_000_000)) observed: dict[tuple[Any, ...], list[int]] = {} null: dict[tuple[Any, ...], list[int]] = {} source_pick_count = 0 for group_index, (station, phase, times, models) in enumerate( iter_station_phase_groups(args.candidates), 1 ): source_pick_count += len(times) for assessed_output in range(model_count): assessed_mask = models == assessed_output if not np.any(assessed_mask): continue assessed = times[assessed_mask] external_times_raw = times[~assessed_mask] external_models = models[~assessed_mask] _, _, candidate_times, _, candidate_support, _ = cluster_group( external_times_raw, external_models, cluster_us, model_count ) eligible_m = eligibility_count( assessed, station, phase, assessed_output, intervals, model_count ) accumulate( observed, (assessed_output, phase), assessed, candidate_times, candidate_support, eligible_m, delta_us, args.q0, args.m0, ) if assessed_output == null_output: for replicate in range(args.null_replicates): shifted = shifted_station_day_times(assessed, station, replicate) shifted_m = eligibility_count( shifted, station, phase, assessed_output, intervals, model_count ) accumulate( null, (replicate, phase), shifted, candidate_times, candidate_support, shifted_m, delta_us, args.q0, args.m0, ) if group_index % 100 == 0: print( f"[LOO] groups={group_index:,} source_picks={source_pick_count:,}", flush=True, ) rows = [] for (output_id, phase, period), (reported, eligible, corroborated) in sorted(observed.items()): rows.append( { "output_id": output_id, "output_name": output_names[output_id], "period": period, "phase": phase, "reported_pick_count": reported, "eligible_denominator": eligible, "corroborated_count": corroborated, "cross_output_precision_proxy": ( corroborated / eligible if eligible else None ), } ) null_rows = [] for phase in ("P", "S"): for period in PERIODS: fractions = [] denominators = [] for replicate in range(args.null_replicates): _, eligible, corroborated = null.get((replicate, phase, period), [0, 0, 0]) if eligible: fractions.append(corroborated / eligible) denominators.append(eligible) null_rows.append( { "output_id": null_output, "output_name": output_names[null_output], "period": period, "phase": phase, "replicates": len(fractions), "mean_eligible_denominator": float(np.mean(denominators)) if denominators else None, "mean_null_fraction": float(np.mean(fractions)) if fractions else None, "null_fraction_p05": float(np.quantile(fractions, 0.05)) if fractions else None, "null_fraction_p95": float(np.quantile(fractions, 0.95)) if fractions else None, } ) payload = { "schema": "seismicx-cont-leave-one-output-precision-proxy-v1", "candidate_file": args.candidates.relative_to(ROOT).as_posix(), "eligibility_file": args.eligibility.relative_to(ROOT).as_posix(), "source_pick_count": source_pick_count, "parameters": { "cluster_strict_span_s": args.cluster_span_s, "assignment_tolerance_delta_s": args.delta_s, "normalized_support_threshold_q0": args.q0, "minimum_external_eligibility_m0": args.m0, "assignment": "deterministic earliest-feasible one-to-one assignment on sorted times", "eligibility_query_time": "assessed-pick time", }, "rows": rows, "station_day_time_shift_null": { "output": args.null_output, "replicates": args.null_replicates, "offset_s": "deterministic uniform integer in [60, 600] per station-day-replicate", "daily_pick_count_preserved": True, "rows": null_rows, }, } args.output_json.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) args.output_json.write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n") with args.output_tsv.open("w", newline="") as stream: writer = csv.DictWriter(stream, fieldnames=list(rows[0]), delimiter="\t") writer.writeheader() writer.writerows(rows) print(json.dumps({"rows": len(rows), "source_pick_count": source_pick_count}, indent=2)) if __name__ == "__main__": main()