{ "date": "2026-08-16", "seed": 20260812, "models": [ "claude-opus-5", "claude-sonnet-5", "claude-haiku-4-5", "claude-fable-5" ], "prompt": "Answer the question below. Do not show any working, do not explain. Reply with exactly one line in the form:\nANSWER: ", "cliArgs": [ "-p", "--output-format", "json", "--model", "", "--tools", "\"\"", "--strict-mcp-config", "--mcp-config", "\\research\\llm-arithmetic\\no-mcp.json" ], "tasks": [ { "id": "mrr-0", "kind": "mrr", "months": 36, "want": 38115.30678167854, "question": "A SaaS starts at $8,000 MRR. Each month, in this exact order: MRR first grows by 7.0%, then 2.4% of the resulting MRR churns away. What is MRR after 36 months?" }, { "id": "cash-1", "kind": "cash", "months": 60, "want": 4864506.921884278, "question": "A company starts with $900,000 in cash. It spends a fixed $40,000 every month. Revenue is $18,000 in month 1 and grows 5.0% every month after that (month 2 revenue = month 1 revenue x 1.05, and so on). Cash after 60 months = starting cash + all revenue collected - all spend. What is it?" }, { "id": "ltv-2", "kind": "ltv", "months": null, "want": 7800.000000000001, "question": "ARPU is $240/month, gross margin is 78%, monthly customer churn is 2.4%. Using LTV = ARPU x gross margin / monthly churn, what is LTV?" }, { "id": "two-phase-3", "kind": "two-phase", "months": 60, "want": 18578.74834305274, "question": "A SaaS starts at $26,000 MRR. Each month, in this exact order: MRR grows, then churn is applied to the grown figure. Growth is 9.0% for months 1 through 6, and 3.0% from month 7 onwards. Churn is 4.0% every month. What is MRR after 60 months?" }, { "id": "runway-4", "kind": "runway", "months": null, "want": 5, "question": "A company has $300,000 in cash and no revenue. Monthly burn is $60,000 in months 1, 2 and 3, then increases by $10,000 every 3 months (so it steps up in month 4, again in month 7, and so on). In which month number does the cash balance first go below zero?" }, { "id": "mrr-5", "kind": "mrr", "months": 60, "want": 14887.453040647115, "question": "A SaaS starts at $12,000 MRR. Each month, in this exact order: MRR first grows by 4.0%, then 3.5% of the resulting MRR churns away. What is MRR after 60 months?" }, { "id": "cash-6", "kind": "cash", "months": 36, "want": 5822959.304807226, "question": "A company starts with $420,000 in cash. It spends a fixed $40,000 every month. Revenue is $18,000 in month 1 and grows 11.0% every month after that (month 2 revenue = month 1 revenue x 1.11, and so on). Cash after 36 months = starting cash + all revenue collected - all spend. What is it?" }, { "id": "ltv-7", "kind": "ltv", "months": null, "want": 2346.842105263158, "question": "ARPU is $49/month, gross margin is 91%, monthly customer churn is 1.9%. Using LTV = ARPU x gross margin / monthly churn, what is LTV?" }, { "id": "two-phase-8", "kind": "two-phase", "months": 36, "want": 21262.901931922686, "question": "A SaaS starts at $9,000 MRR. Each month, in this exact order: MRR grows, then churn is applied to the grown figure. Growth is 9.0% for months 1 through 6, and 3.0% from month 7 onwards. Churn is 1.5% every month. What is MRR after 36 months?" }, { "id": "runway-9", "kind": "runway", "months": null, "want": 11, "question": "A company has $750,000 in cash and no revenue. Monthly burn is $60,000 in months 1, 2 and 3, then increases by $10,000 every 3 months (so it steps up in month 4, again in month 7, and so on). In which month number does the cash balance first go below zero?" } ], "rows": [ { "id": "mrr-0", "kind": "mrr", "months": 36, "model": "claude-opus-5", "want": 38115.30678167854, "answeredBy": "claude-opus-5", "got": 38115.31, "relError": 8.443645686841937e-8, "thinkingTokens": 936, "outputTokens": 949, "raw": "ANSWER: 38115.31" }, { "id": "cash-1", "kind": "cash", "months": 60, "model": "claude-opus-5", "want": 4864506.921884278, "answeredBy": "claude-opus-5", "got": 4864506.92, "relError": 3.873522928947228e-10, "thinkingTokens": 1018, "outputTokens": 1032, "raw": "ANSWER: 4864506.92" }, { "id": "ltv-2", "kind": "ltv", "months": null, "model": "claude-opus-5", "want": 7800.000000000001, "answeredBy": "claude-opus-5", "got": 7800, "relError": 1.1660188484268308e-16, "thinkingTokens": 27, "outputTokens": 38, "raw": "ANSWER: 7800" }, { "id": "two-phase-3", "kind": "two-phase", "months": 60, "model": "claude-opus-5", "want": 18578.74834305274, "answeredBy": "claude-opus-5", "got": 18578.75, "relError": 8.918508557902054e-8, "thinkingTokens": 1665, "outputTokens": 1678, "raw": "ANSWER: 18578.75" }, { "id": "runway-4", "kind": "runway", "months": null, "model": "claude-opus-5", "want": 5, "answeredBy": "claude-opus-5", "got": 5, "relError": 0, "thinkingTokens": 90, "outputTokens": 100, "raw": "ANSWER: 5" }, { "id": "mrr-5", "kind": "mrr", "months": 60, "model": "claude-opus-5", "want": 14887.453040647115, "answeredBy": "claude-opus-5", "got": 14887.45, "relError": 2.0424226399734698e-7, "thinkingTokens": 338, "outputTokens": 351, "raw": "ANSWER: 14887.45" }, { "id": "cash-6", "kind": "cash", "months": 36, "model": "claude-opus-5", "want": 5822959.304807226, "answeredBy": "claude-opus-5", "got": 5822959, "relError": 5.2345759298359134e-8, "thinkingTokens": 1440, "outputTokens": 1452, "raw": "ANSWER: 5822959" }, { "id": "ltv-7", "kind": "ltv", "months": null, "model": "claude-opus-5", "want": 2346.842105263158, "answeredBy": "claude-opus-5", "got": 2346.84, "relError": 8.970621215001095e-7, "thinkingTokens": 45, "outputTokens": 58, "raw": "ANSWER: 2346.84" }, { "id": "two-phase-8", "kind": "two-phase", "months": 36, "model": "claude-opus-5", "want": 21262.901931922686, "answeredBy": "claude-opus-5", "got": 21262.9, "relError": 9.085884377751978e-8, "thinkingTokens": 2055, "outputTokens": 2068, "raw": "ANSWER: 21262.9" }, { "id": "runway-9", "kind": "runway", "months": null, "model": "claude-opus-5", "want": 11, "answeredBy": "claude-opus-5", "got": 11, "relError": 0, "thinkingTokens": 157, "outputTokens": 167, "raw": "ANSWER: 11" }, { "id": "mrr-0", "kind": "mrr", "months": 36, "model": "claude-sonnet-5", "want": 38115.30678167854, "answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5", "got": 38115.31, "relError": 8.443645686841937e-8, "thinkingTokens": 5896, "outputTokens": 5909, "raw": "ANSWER: 38115.31" }, { "id": "cash-1", "kind": "cash", "months": 60, "model": "claude-sonnet-5", "want": 4864506.921884278, "answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5", "got": 4864506.96, "relError": 7.835474949328383e-9, "thinkingTokens": 3281, "outputTokens": 3295, "raw": "ANSWER: 4864506.96" }, { "id": "ltv-2", "kind": "ltv", "months": null, "model": "claude-sonnet-5", "want": 7800.000000000001, "answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5", "got": 7800, "relError": 1.1660188484268308e-16, "thinkingTokens": 0, "outputTokens": 11, "raw": "ANSWER: 7800" }, { "id": "two-phase-3", "kind": "two-phase", "months": 60, "model": "claude-sonnet-5", "want": 18578.74834305274, "answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5", "got": 18578.73, "relError": 9.873136984693287e-7, "thinkingTokens": 10793, "outputTokens": 10807, "raw": "ANSWER: 18578.73" }, { "id": "runway-4", "kind": "runway", "months": null, "model": "claude-sonnet-5", "want": 5, "answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5", "got": 5, "relError": 0, "thinkingTokens": 133, "outputTokens": 144, "raw": "ANSWER: 5" }, { "id": "mrr-5", "kind": "mrr", "months": 60, "model": "claude-sonnet-5", "want": 14887.453040647115, "answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5", "got": 14887.45, "relError": 2.0424226399734698e-7, "thinkingTokens": 1403, "outputTokens": 1416, "raw": "ANSWER: 14887.45" }, { "id": "cash-6", "kind": "cash", "months": 36, "model": "claude-sonnet-5", "want": 5822959.304807226, "answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5", "got": 5822959.31, "relError": 8.917756667733204e-10, "thinkingTokens": 5427, "outputTokens": 5441, "raw": "ANSWER: 5822959.31" }, { "id": "ltv-7", "kind": "ltv", "months": null, "model": "claude-sonnet-5", "want": 2346.842105263158, "answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5", "got": 2347.37, "relError": 0.0002249383269790866, "thinkingTokens": 33, "outputTokens": 46, "raw": "ANSWER: 2347.37" }, { "id": "two-phase-8", "kind": "two-phase", "months": 36, "model": "claude-sonnet-5", "want": 21262.901931922686, "answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5", "got": 21262.91, "relError": 3.794438472858277e-7, "thinkingTokens": 7349, "outputTokens": 7362, "raw": "ANSWER: 21262.91" }, { "id": "runway-9", "kind": "runway", "months": null, "model": "claude-sonnet-5", "want": 11, "answeredBy": "claude-sonnet-5", "got": 11, "relError": 0, "thinkingTokens": 205, "outputTokens": 216, "raw": "ANSWER: 11" }, { "id": "mrr-0", "kind": "mrr", "months": 36, "model": "claude-haiku-4-5", "want": 38115.30678167854, "answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "got": 38115, "relError": 0.000008048778940644374, "thinkingTokens": 7710, "outputTokens": 7723, "raw": "ANSWER: $38,115" }, { "id": "cash-1", "kind": "cash", "months": 60, "model": "claude-haiku-4-5", "want": 4864506.921884278, "answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "got": 4864544.82, "relError": 0.000007790741452534025, "thinkingTokens": 3873, "outputTokens": 3887, "raw": "ANSWER: 4864544.82" }, { "id": "ltv-2", "kind": "ltv", "months": null, "model": "claude-haiku-4-5", "want": 7800.000000000001, "answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "got": 7800, "relError": 1.1660188484268308e-16, "thinkingTokens": 161, "outputTokens": 173, "raw": "ANSWER: 7800" }, { "id": "two-phase-3", "kind": "two-phase", "months": 60, "model": "claude-haiku-4-5", "want": 18578.74834305274, "answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "got": 18553, "relError": 0.0013859029993464173, "thinkingTokens": 13085, "outputTokens": 13097, "raw": "ANSWER: 18553" }, { "id": "runway-4", "kind": "runway", "months": null, "model": "claude-haiku-4-5", "want": 5, "answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "got": 5, "relError": 0, "thinkingTokens": 355, "outputTokens": 366, "raw": "ANSWER: 5" }, { "id": "mrr-5", "kind": "mrr", "months": 60, "model": "claude-haiku-4-5", "want": 14887.453040647115, "answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "got": 14887.54, "relError": 0.000005841116855149435, "thinkingTokens": 10160, "outputTokens": 10173, "raw": "ANSWER: 14887.54" }, { "id": "cash-6", "kind": "cash", "months": 36, "model": "claude-haiku-4-5", "want": 5822959.304807226, "answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "got": 5831410, "relError": 0.0014512715529021876, "thinkingTokens": 7051, "outputTokens": 7064, "raw": "ANSWER: 5831410" }, { "id": "ltv-7", "kind": "ltv", "months": null, "model": "claude-haiku-4-5", "want": 2346.842105263158, "answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "got": 2346.32, "relError": 0.00022247140614481596, "thinkingTokens": 421, "outputTokens": 434, "raw": "ANSWER: 2346.32" }, { "id": "two-phase-8", "kind": "two-phase", "months": 36, "model": "claude-haiku-4-5", "want": 21262.901931922686, "answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "got": 21271, "relError": 0.00038085432097844377, "thinkingTokens": 14239, "outputTokens": 14251, "raw": "ANSWER: 21271" }, { "id": "runway-9", "kind": "runway", "months": null, "model": "claude-haiku-4-5", "want": 11, "answeredBy": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "got": 11, "relError": 0, "thinkingTokens": 972, "outputTokens": 983, "raw": "ANSWER: 11" }, { "id": "mrr-0", "kind": "mrr", "months": 36, "model": "claude-fable-5", "want": 38115.30678167854, "answeredBy": "claude-fable-5", "got": 38115.34, "relError": 8.715218178934132e-7, "thinkingTokens": 1430, "outputTokens": 1443, "raw": "ANSWER: 38115.34" }, { "id": "cash-1", "kind": "cash", "months": 60, "model": "claude-fable-5", "want": 4864506.921884278, "answeredBy": "claude-fable-5", "got": 4864506.92, "relError": 3.873522928947228e-10, "thinkingTokens": 1182, "outputTokens": 1196, "raw": "ANSWER: 4864506.92" }, { "id": "ltv-2", "kind": "ltv", "months": null, "model": "claude-fable-5", "want": 7800.000000000001, "answeredBy": "claude-fable-5", "got": 7800, "relError": 1.1660188484268308e-16, "thinkingTokens": 33, "outputTokens": 44, "raw": "ANSWER: 7800" }, { "id": "two-phase-3", "kind": "two-phase", "months": 60, "model": "claude-fable-5", "want": 18578.74834305274, "answeredBy": "claude-fable-5", "got": 18578.75, "relError": 8.918508557902054e-8, "thinkingTokens": 1148, "outputTokens": 1161, "raw": "ANSWER: 18578.75" }, { "id": "runway-4", "kind": "runway", "months": null, "model": "claude-fable-5", "want": 5, "answeredBy": "claude-fable-5", "got": 5, "relError": 0, "thinkingTokens": 104, "outputTokens": 114, "raw": "ANSWER: 5" }, { "id": "mrr-5", "kind": "mrr", "months": 60, "model": "claude-fable-5", "want": 14887.453040647115, "answeredBy": "claude-fable-5", "got": 14887.46, "relError": 4.6746430468813303e-7, "thinkingTokens": 488, "outputTokens": 501, "raw": "ANSWER: 14887.46" }, { "id": "cash-6", "kind": "cash", "months": 36, "model": "claude-fable-5", "want": 5822959.304807226, "answeredBy": "claude-fable-5", "got": 5822959, "relError": 5.2345759298359134e-8, "thinkingTokens": 1585, "outputTokens": 1597, "raw": "ANSWER: 5822959" }, { "id": "ltv-7", "kind": "ltv", "months": null, "model": "claude-fable-5", "want": 2346.842105263158, "answeredBy": "claude-fable-5", "got": 2346.84, "relError": 8.970621215001095e-7, "thinkingTokens": 42, "outputTokens": 55, "raw": "ANSWER: 2346.84" }, { "id": "two-phase-8", "kind": "two-phase", "months": 36, "model": "claude-fable-5", "want": 21262.901931922686, "answeredBy": "claude-fable-5", "got": 21263, "relError": 0.000004612168067540336, "thinkingTokens": 2161, "outputTokens": 2172, "raw": "ANSWER: 21263" }, { "id": "runway-9", "kind": "runway", "months": null, "model": "claude-fable-5", "want": 11, "answeredBy": "claude-fable-5", "got": 11, "relError": 0, "thinkingTokens": 101, "outputTokens": 111, "raw": "ANSWER: 11" } ] }