from fractions import Fraction prior = Fraction(1, 50) sensitivity = Fraction(19, 20) false_positive = Fraction(1, 10) def posterior(positives): good_evidence = prior * sensitivity ** positives other_evidence = (1 - prior) * false_positive ** positives return good_evidence / (good_evidence + other_evidence) one, two = posterior(1), posterior(2) assert 0 < one < two < 1 result = {"one_positive": str(one), "two_positives": str(two)} import json print(json.dumps(result, ensure_ascii=False, sort_keys=True))