diff --git a/.gitattributes b/.gitattributes index 02a36e170d8c1197179346cd53694cd1a691ba99..8ead53b132fd912b080b5cee122af5c1ef0e3c29 100644 --- a/.gitattributes +++ b/.gitattributes @@ -68,3 +68,4 @@ model_outputs/Finance-chat-7B/llm_audit.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -tex model_outputs/Gemma2-9B/llm_audit.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text model_outputs/Llama3.2-3B/llm_audit.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text model_outputs/Mistral-7B/llm_audit.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text +model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/llm_audit.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/llm_audit.jsonl b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/llm_audit.jsonl new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f5c024bdeb88e53aa78a2a2d4c69ab7c016fa4ae --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/llm_audit.jsonl @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:b68ff99f8d0adf54c92325d207a2e0f5f74c1884588149b46cec88ac96d58239 +size 49453333 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3b536b7fff35ad6856c529934b934c5162771cfe --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,128 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T00:57:46.689000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about SBF's unethical behavior and chose to",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T18:32:27.172000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Example 2 makes no sense and deters me from betting anything,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-11-21T23:08:34.986000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,For anyone who'd like a slightly longer time frame:,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:45:48.271000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"$10,000 that credibly would not otherwise have been donated would almost certainly get the job done +Would Liberian or J",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:00:56.268000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Thanks for helping hash this out, y'all! I added a new top-level comment to pin this down.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-30T22:46:07.709000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: This market doesn’t need to hinge on YES or NO—it could just be something cool. So… why not make it that? +Hey +",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:58:45.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Most of the time when I am not in a contest environment I'm just trolling around so ""top USA mathlete"" doesn't mean that",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-08T15:15:46.821000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If I purchased ""hundreds"" of BTC, and lost them all, and now saw BTC trading near $100k, I think I might go a little cra",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just + holding YES and + holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-26T16:23:02.331000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me resolve the market. I’m clearly more committed, and it would make this whole thing way more fun (and maybe",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:15:18.080000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If you beg them to settle for $1 to win in this market, I don't know what to say. I want to see a resolution on the doc",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:57:15.249000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Unless I messed up my solution, I have a definitive answer to this problem (YES or NO).",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution. +(I currently don’t hav",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-25T16:37:54.552000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"30 days would be fine. Whether I would refile in that case, of course, would depend on the reasoning behind the decisio",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-05-24T17:09:55.179000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"There's no implication he wishes he could have done something different, or intends to do something different next time.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:01:45.470000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What's this last comment in reference to? I don't recall hearing about Bouscal before.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T19:31:28.553000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, I must have missed them. One is giving $10k to charity, right? What was the second?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T00:09:15.865000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"theres only 11 million 5 letter combinations, and we have 14 days. if we get 78 thousand people putting guesses on the m",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:53:14.680000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm so glad my market is spawning whatever kind of poetry this is,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:44:12.792000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm not sure I follow this reasoning. The market is entirely subjective and I have full rein to resolve whichever way I,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-27T20:24:47.705000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me be the arbiter. You get to finish this game without losing, avoid Manifest chaos, and I pinky promise to p",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T06:23:24.539000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This one might be a bit better - he says that he ""apologizes to women"" twice in a row (though after reading it a few tim",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:47:13.589000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,There is an offer of M5K from me for that person to keep holding NO so that it resolves NO (they would keep their own 4.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T05:25:18.793000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok + +I challenge you to a best of 10, 3 min online blitz chess match. If I win, you resolve this market YES. If you w",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T08:05:41.864000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Thanks +, for the clarification. +To add to +'s point above, +Binance.US + does ~$250m per day and has ~500k weekly v",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:25:00.955000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"wow you either have a lot of faith in me, or very little faith in your fellow Manifolders to persuade me",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:32:17.509000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yeah obviously I am aware that it is almost certain that this market is secured by an alt. I was hoping to either expose,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:36:43.120000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",anyway I have sold most of my stake since I could still do so almost costlessly and I now have less confidence in this m,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:27:30.877000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve yes I will send you cute pictures of my cat.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:49:54.687000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,That a mere ~$2k in donations that may or may nor have even occurred otherwise is enough to consider a YES despite a sup,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:53:50.667000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"On page 3, you bounded N^(-1/(1+e/n)) below by N^-1. However, this means that on page 1, the actual bound you needed fro",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T04:02:19.178000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Gees. XABDU was right there... Not my guess, this hasn't got a date on it",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T01:04:13.568000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Personally, I remember telling at least a handful of people at the time that Sam belonged in a jail cell, but I expect t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:01:28.825000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like they'd rather spent $400 to remove the case than to pay you. +This is a cost of doing business for these bank",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:25:03.838000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I know it’s not the $10k that you were hoping for, but we have: +$3k to various charities +A truck full of supplies to a",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T05:20:14.329000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","For clarity for anyone reading this comment on Manifold, that whole second paragraph was also supposed to be part of the",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T20:01:55.515000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I endorse this interpretation and examples.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T18:22:51.789000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Actually, the reason why I'm not going higher is because I think the markets saying that BTC will go over $30k by the en",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:29:49.955000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As the debates in the comments clearly show, this is not elementary. Even drawing it out, a human would probably still f",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T23:42:23.849000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it's not about whether you break the wall, each single person holding YES shares makes it harder for the wall to be brok",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:12:59.082000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but that profit is the upper limit with the current market price at 95%. When i entered it was 50%. Also, the profit for",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:25:25.911000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,It costs like M$500 or so to buy 5000 NO shares. All that anyone needs to force a YES resolution is to tell a friend - h,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:49:29.853000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,aren't there charities that can save a life for a little over $3000? Would donating enough money to save a life honestly,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case. I think the text is clear enough about that.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:54:08.904000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I should bring traders attention to this note from the AI summary from almost two months ago: +Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:14:13.015000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"We now have at least $3250 pledged to some very good charities, and I gotta admit that the fact that you haven’t resolv",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:14:30.535000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I can’t in good conscience risk funds on a bet where, if I lose, I can’t afford to pay back loans to people.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-24T18:15:58.785000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: ""Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps r",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T07:04:33.212000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Heck I had a dream about a puzzle just like this on this site except there was also a library exhibit with books and mus,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T07:05:49.956000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ok, let me write out some of my thoughts about the ""spirit"" of this market. +Fundamentally, I think the question people ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:19:46.062000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +I guess we're here. It's the end of the line. This is my last pitch. 😭 + +I’ve said a few times that I didn’",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:27:18.006000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Highly, HIGHLY unlikely. Anthropic's claude-next plan calls for it to be done in the next 18 months (before 2024 end), a",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:03:56.406000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Yeah, I think my choice of words there was poor. My intention was to point to ""whatever types of fraud caused the FTX co",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:51:40.525000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I could see that, maybe - but these things happen fast. One week things will seem fine, and the next it will all be ove",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:47:42.847000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given all the concerns about resolution ambiguity, I've decided to not place any more bets in this market. (And I curren",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-18T19:12:27.569000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed that ""never heard of her"" doesn't mean all that much, especially considering how little I'm involved in the EA co",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T20:53:32.777000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,The problem is that nobody knows if a factor 1000 improvement in natural language understanding is enough to solve probl,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:16:56.152000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I agree in general. But in this case I'm not changing anything, just clarifying something I failed to pin down fully. Or",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:37:50.917000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Do you want to add the ""There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description."" incantation to the descr",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T17:15:19.479000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"resolving to N/A or PROB is confusing to me, as it would just defy the basic premise of the market",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T07:08:18.806000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You get a somewhat similar effect, perhaps even more illuminating by analyzing the limit walls or ramparts if any, with ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:25:20.964000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I bought YES as pure speculation and I expect NO. I think there are still a lot of people who profit by keeping the faca,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T09:05:51.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"not just sympathize, can empathize. Am coughing slime, not in a hampering way, but overdid the housecleaning for the ann",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T17:52:11.844000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's worse than that. +Any indication of any successful collaboration that we can't see the rest of, makes it harder to ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T23:12:49.037000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I originally didn't want to reply to this comment to keep to the ""minimize disturbance to market"" philosophy but after r",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:30:19.870000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Some of this is paywalled, but I think Hoel is misunderstanding the act/rule utilitarianism distinction: An act utilitar",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T10:36:55.643000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Other settlements from Wells Fargo? If he had sued for $39 which is what the case seems worth on its best day, maybe the",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:09:56.476000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"because it is an asymmetric game. +The NO holders can instantaneously buy a few more shares and make the market resolve ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:14:11.160000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Ask me again when the market is resolved,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T13:24:53.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Here some armchair strategy. Steven could re-file at the local small claims court, relying just on state law, and aband",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:10:41.291000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i’ll give $250 to LTFF if bens resolves yes (didn’t vote on the poll). have been thinking about donating this year but t,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero: +(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:09:48.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,AI superhuman at annoying Ben has been developed internally,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:47:41.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),For some reason I am looking at the hints in pairs.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:31:55.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,well the general purpose of this market was not for me to be persuading users and telegraphing what would be the most ef,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:47:55.192000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh, I didn't see that they had bought YES here. Neat! I approve. :)",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:33:30.927000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"ah yes, I forgot. Before I book a hotel room for a night, I have a home inspector go over and spend a few hours crawling",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up. + since you’r",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:43:53.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"next time there’s a fine, buster",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:33:15.971000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,less than one day left to persuade me to resolve this YES!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with + if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:54:18.458000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I would resolve YES for 1 billion mana.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..633e48f4b56825b3ae06fb5013a812db1d898abb --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,128 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T00:57:46.689000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about SBF's unethical behavior and chose to",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T18:32:27.172000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Example 2 makes no sense and deters me from betting anything,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-11-21T23:08:34.986000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,For anyone who'd like a slightly longer time frame:,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:45:48.271000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"$10,000 that credibly would not otherwise have been donated would almost certainly get the job done +Would Liberian or J",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:00:56.268000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Thanks for helping hash this out, y'all! I added a new top-level comment to pin this down.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-30T22:46:07.709000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: This market doesn’t need to hinge on YES or NO—it could just be something cool. So… why not make it that? +Hey +",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:58:45.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Most of the time when I am not in a contest environment I'm just trolling around so ""top USA mathlete"" doesn't mean that",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-08T15:15:46.821000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If I purchased ""hundreds"" of BTC, and lost them all, and now saw BTC trading near $100k, I think I might go a little cra",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just + holding YES and + holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-26T16:23:02.331000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me resolve the market. I’m clearly more committed, and it would make this whole thing way more fun (and maybe",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:15:18.080000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If you beg them to settle for $1 to win in this market, I don't know what to say. I want to see a resolution on the doc",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:57:15.249000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Unless I messed up my solution, I have a definitive answer to this problem (YES or NO).",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution. +(I currently don’t hav",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-25T16:37:54.552000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"30 days would be fine. Whether I would refile in that case, of course, would depend on the reasoning behind the decisio",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-05-24T17:09:55.179000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"There's no implication he wishes he could have done something different, or intends to do something different next time.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:01:45.470000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What's this last comment in reference to? I don't recall hearing about Bouscal before.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T19:31:28.553000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, I must have missed them. One is giving $10k to charity, right? What was the second?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T00:09:15.865000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"theres only 11 million 5 letter combinations, and we have 14 days. if we get 78 thousand people putting guesses on the m",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:53:14.680000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm so glad my market is spawning whatever kind of poetry this is,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:44:12.792000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm not sure I follow this reasoning. The market is entirely subjective and I have full rein to resolve whichever way I,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-27T20:24:47.705000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me be the arbiter. You get to finish this game without losing, avoid Manifest chaos, and I pinky promise to p",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T06:23:24.539000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This one might be a bit better - he says that he ""apologizes to women"" twice in a row (though after reading it a few tim",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:47:13.589000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,There is an offer of M5K from me for that person to keep holding NO so that it resolves NO (they would keep their own 4.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T05:25:18.793000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok + +I challenge you to a best of 10, 3 min online blitz chess match. If I win, you resolve this market YES. If you w",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T08:05:41.864000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Thanks +, for the clarification. +To add to +'s point above, +Binance.US + does ~$250m per day and has ~500k weekly v",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:25:00.955000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"wow you either have a lot of faith in me, or very little faith in your fellow Manifolders to persuade me",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:32:17.509000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yeah obviously I am aware that it is almost certain that this market is secured by an alt. I was hoping to either expose,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:36:43.120000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",anyway I have sold most of my stake since I could still do so almost costlessly and I now have less confidence in this m,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:27:30.877000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve yes I will send you cute pictures of my cat.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:49:54.687000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,That a mere ~$2k in donations that may or may nor have even occurred otherwise is enough to consider a YES despite a sup,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:53:50.667000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"On page 3, you bounded N^(-1/(1+e/n)) below by N^-1. However, this means that on page 1, the actual bound you needed fro",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T04:02:19.178000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Gees. XABDU was right there... Not my guess, this hasn't got a date on it",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T01:04:13.568000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Personally, I remember telling at least a handful of people at the time that Sam belonged in a jail cell, but I expect t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:01:28.825000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like they'd rather spent $400 to remove the case than to pay you. +This is a cost of doing business for these bank",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:25:03.838000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I know it’s not the $10k that you were hoping for, but we have: +$3k to various charities +A truck full of supplies to a",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T05:20:14.329000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","For clarity for anyone reading this comment on Manifold, that whole second paragraph was also supposed to be part of the",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T20:01:55.515000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I endorse this interpretation and examples.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T18:22:51.789000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Actually, the reason why I'm not going higher is because I think the markets saying that BTC will go over $30k by the en",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:29:49.955000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As the debates in the comments clearly show, this is not elementary. Even drawing it out, a human would probably still f",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T23:42:23.849000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it's not about whether you break the wall, each single person holding YES shares makes it harder for the wall to be brok",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:12:59.082000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but that profit is the upper limit with the current market price at 95%. When i entered it was 50%. Also, the profit for",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:25:25.911000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,It costs like M$500 or so to buy 5000 NO shares. All that anyone needs to force a YES resolution is to tell a friend - h,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:49:29.853000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,aren't there charities that can save a life for a little over $3000? Would donating enough money to save a life honestly,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case. I think the text is clear enough about that.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:54:08.904000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I should bring traders attention to this note from the AI summary from almost two months ago: +Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:14:13.015000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"We now have at least $3250 pledged to some very good charities, and I gotta admit that the fact that you haven’t resolv",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:14:30.535000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I can’t in good conscience risk funds on a bet where, if I lose, I can’t afford to pay back loans to people.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-24T18:15:58.785000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: ""Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps r",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T07:04:33.212000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Heck I had a dream about a puzzle just like this on this site except there was also a library exhibit with books and mus,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T07:05:49.956000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ok, let me write out some of my thoughts about the ""spirit"" of this market. +Fundamentally, I think the question people ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:19:46.062000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +I guess we're here. It's the end of the line. This is my last pitch. 😭 + +I’ve said a few times that I didn’",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:27:18.006000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Highly, HIGHLY unlikely. Anthropic's claude-next plan calls for it to be done in the next 18 months (before 2024 end), a",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:03:56.406000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Yeah, I think my choice of words there was poor. My intention was to point to ""whatever types of fraud caused the FTX co",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:51:40.525000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I could see that, maybe - but these things happen fast. One week things will seem fine, and the next it will all be ove",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:47:42.847000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given all the concerns about resolution ambiguity, I've decided to not place any more bets in this market. (And I curren",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-18T19:12:27.569000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed that ""never heard of her"" doesn't mean all that much, especially considering how little I'm involved in the EA co",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T20:53:32.777000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,The problem is that nobody knows if a factor 1000 improvement in natural language understanding is enough to solve probl,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:16:56.152000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I agree in general. But in this case I'm not changing anything, just clarifying something I failed to pin down fully. Or",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:37:50.917000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Do you want to add the ""There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description."" incantation to the descr",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T17:15:19.479000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"resolving to N/A or PROB is confusing to me, as it would just defy the basic premise of the market",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T07:08:18.806000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You get a somewhat similar effect, perhaps even more illuminating by analyzing the limit walls or ramparts if any, with ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:25:20.964000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I bought YES as pure speculation and I expect NO. I think there are still a lot of people who profit by keeping the faca,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T09:05:51.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"not just sympathize, can empathize. Am coughing slime, not in a hampering way, but overdid the housecleaning for the ann",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T17:52:11.844000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's worse than that. +Any indication of any successful collaboration that we can't see the rest of, makes it harder to ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T23:12:49.037000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I originally didn't want to reply to this comment to keep to the ""minimize disturbance to market"" philosophy but after r",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:30:19.870000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Some of this is paywalled, but I think Hoel is misunderstanding the act/rule utilitarianism distinction: An act utilitar",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T10:36:55.643000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Other settlements from Wells Fargo? If he had sued for $39 which is what the case seems worth on its best day, maybe the",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:09:56.476000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"because it is an asymmetric game. +The NO holders can instantaneously buy a few more shares and make the market resolve ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:14:11.160000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Ask me again when the market is resolved,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T13:24:53.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Here some armchair strategy. Steven could re-file at the local small claims court, relying just on state law, and aband",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:10:41.291000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i’ll give $250 to LTFF if bens resolves yes (didn’t vote on the poll). have been thinking about donating this year but t,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero: +(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:09:48.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,AI superhuman at annoying Ben has been developed internally,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:47:41.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),For some reason I am looking at the hints in pairs.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:31:55.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,well the general purpose of this market was not for me to be persuading users and telegraphing what would be the most ef,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:47:55.192000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh, I didn't see that they had bought YES here. Neat! I approve. :)",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:33:30.927000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"ah yes, I forgot. Before I book a hotel room for a night, I have a home inspector go over and spend a few hours crawling",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up. + since you’r",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:43:53.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"next time there’s a fine, buster",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:33:15.971000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,less than one day left to persuade me to resolve this YES!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with + if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:54:18.458000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I would resolve YES for 1 billion mana.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4371b4d9b7f08a9c0271e4139b37771e58eecfca --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,197 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T01:45:53.433000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Oh sorry, I missed the first line of the market. I thought this was for an AI to persuade you, not a human.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-26T16:23:02.331000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me resolve the market. I’m clearly more committed, and it would make this whole thing way more fun (and maybe",NO,NO,True,True,15100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:17:28.329000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"can't you also just click the 3 dots and then click ""watch""?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T16:12:51.366000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"You built this market on a simple procedural premise: start at NO, then flip to YES if and only if a persuasive argument",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T00:48:36.256000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,why are you so confident about your probability?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just + holding YES and + holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2.3674,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:44:12.792000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm not sure I follow this reasoning. The market is entirely subjective and I have full rein to resolve whichever way I,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-25T16:37:54.552000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"30 days would be fine. Whether I would refile in that case, of course, would depend on the reasoning behind the decisio",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:09:48.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,AI superhuman at annoying Ben has been developed internally,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T13:11:35.160000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I think you'll get the most information and the least regret from choosing no. If you think about what you'll feel looki,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T17:18:38.623000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I have sold my shares for 1 profit and put the 1 profit on yes +I'm literly an evil mastrminde",YES,YES,True,True,1.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,NO,NO,True,True,50.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",YES,NO,False,True,5922.8747,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:29:49.955000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As the debates in the comments clearly show, this is not elementary. Even drawing it out, a human would probably still f",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",YES,NO,False,True,80.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:47:13.589000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,There is an offer of M5K from me for that person to keep holding NO so that it resolves NO (they would keep their own 4.,NO,YES,False,True,344.7005,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T22:01:27.984000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I've stayed many times at Motel 6 and they are always an excellent value with no problems. I would definitely take my sp,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:09:39.912000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Tipping because the new market description made me laugh out loud.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-25T22:07:42.722000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Me, you, 8x private, short-fused, pre-agreed upon questions on Metaculus (4x authored by you; 4x by me; 2x binary; 2x nu",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T19:05:11.467000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,my math abilities peaked in high school on the AIME test and then maybe again in grad school with two semesters of quant,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",YES,NO,False,True,109.6766,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1700.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",YES,NO,False,True,1884.3998,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:32:17.509000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yeah obviously I am aware that it is almost certain that this market is secured by an alt. I was hoping to either expose,NO,NO,True,True,344.7005,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:31:55.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,well the general purpose of this market was not for me to be persuading users and telegraphing what would be the most ef,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:01:28.825000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like they'd rather spent $400 to remove the case than to pay you. +This is a cost of doing business for these bank",NO,NO,True,True,2134.4637,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:37:29.245000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"check on polymarket, if using crypto doesn't bore you 😀",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T00:37:21.585000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I've heard that this problem has a beautiful solution, akin to the marvelous tune of a broadway musical song. Someone pl",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:47:41.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),For some reason I am looking at the hints in pairs.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:46:00.295000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I'll just note for my own part, that I am not really playing the market, but just the puzzle, and will reveal as soon as",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:47:42.847000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given all the concerns about resolution ambiguity, I've decided to not place any more bets in this market. (And I curren",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T08:37:08.634000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,in what time zone is this Sunday?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",NO,NO,True,True,19.4637,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T16:54:21.853000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I gotta be real, I can't even argue this anymore after today. You can't beat that LMAO",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:01:45.470000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What's this last comment in reference to? I don't recall hearing about Bouscal before.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:37:50.917000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Do you want to add the ""There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description."" incantation to the descr",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-30T22:46:07.709000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: This market doesn’t need to hinge on YES or NO—it could just be something cool. So… why not make it that? +Hey +",NO,NO,True,True,15100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:43:53.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"next time there’s a fine, buster",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T21:29:09.419000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,At the very least the legitimate words have no vowel harmony pattern.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,YES,YES,True,True,50.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T02:12:51.744000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Thanks, that was what I missed! (I should have read the market description more carefully). Buying YES now.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:33:15.971000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,less than one day left to persuade me to resolve this YES!,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T13:47:49.100000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,weren’t you going to hire an actual lawyer? What happened to that plan?,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:00:56.268000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Thanks for helping hash this out, y'all! I added a new top-level comment to pin this down.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,51.0539,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T06:23:24.539000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This one might be a bit better - he says that he ""apologizes to women"" twice in a row (though after reading it a few tim",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution. +(I currently don’t hav",YES,YES,True,True,2.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T02:26:58.150000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Did you re-file? The 30 day window closed. Closing won't help me, I already got out of this market.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-14T19:37:33.571000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I probably shouldn’t answer this, but I wouldn’t worry either way about me as the creator being motivated to change the ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",YES,NO,False,True,767.0988,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:25:00.955000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"wow you either have a lot of faith in me, or very little faith in your fellow Manifolders to persuade me",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-18T19:12:27.569000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed that ""never heard of her"" doesn't mean all that much, especially considering how little I'm involved in the EA co",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:38.679000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Remember it doesn't have to be 5 letters now!,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:45:48.271000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"$10,000 that credibly would not otherwise have been donated would almost certainly get the job done +Would Liberian or J",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T20:17:34.216000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","That seems unfair to the YES bettors, and isn't in line with my past communication. +To give a specific example, say we ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up. + since you’r",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,14529.9924,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with + if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",YES,NO,False,True,8641.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T18:35:25.536000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,I bought them back. Lol. this is fun,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,139.9129,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T18:32:27.172000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Example 2 makes no sense and deters me from betting anything,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T09:05:51.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"not just sympathize, can empathize. Am coughing slime, not in a hampering way, but overdid the housecleaning for the ann",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T17:52:11.844000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's worse than that. +Any indication of any successful collaboration that we can't see the rest of, makes it harder to ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T00:09:15.865000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"theres only 11 million 5 letter combinations, and we have 14 days. if we get 78 thousand people putting guesses on the m",YES,YES,True,True,1000.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:35:30.646000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I never thought I’d honestly laugh at a Trump self-own. Thought it was outside of his emotional range.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",YES,NO,False,True,4485.4804,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T00:57:46.689000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about SBF's unethical behavior and chose to",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T17:26:46.591000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","https://twitter.com/211lp/status/1592073286007271424 +I was screamed at on the phone for 5 minutes straight. I picked up",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:25:25.911000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,It costs like M$500 or so to buy 5000 NO shares. All that anyone needs to force a YES resolution is to tell a friend - h,YES,YES,True,True,11711.0863,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-16T19:36:53.154000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Here’s what might be the worst-case scenario for you: +What if no one tries to convince you of anything at Manifest? Wha",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T17:15:19.479000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"resolving to N/A or PROB is confusing to me, as it would just defy the basic premise of the market",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-27T20:24:47.705000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me be the arbiter. You get to finish this game without losing, avoid Manifest chaos, and I pinky promise to p",NO,NO,True,True,15100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T07:08:18.806000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You get a somewhat similar effect, perhaps even more illuminating by analyzing the limit walls or ramparts if any, with ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:34:48.307000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"The market text states that a $1 settlement will not result in a +YES + resolution.",YES,NO,False,True,50.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:19:46.062000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +I guess we're here. It's the end of the line. This is my last pitch. 😭 + +I’ve said a few times that I didn’",NO,YES,False,True,14449.5298,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T02:28:00.733000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If it was due to retaliation, yes. The primary reason they'd cover it up would be due to fears over EA's reputation, and",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T19:31:28.553000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, I must have missed them. One is giving $10k to charity, right? What was the second?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,YES,YES,True,True,142.7698,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-26T15:26:55.075000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I haven't received the paperwork back from the court yet. During the lawsuit against Coinbase, it took about 10 days, a",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:49:54.687000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,That a mere ~$2k in donations that may or may nor have even occurred otherwise is enough to consider a YES despite a sup,NO,NO,True,True,3367.601,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case. I think the text is clear enough about that.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T15:59:53.196000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I don't understand what your argument is about jurisdiction here and why you are claiming this is the wrong venue. Whic,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:23:16.420000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I do it at a random time each day, whereas I check the market many times per day",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-09T18:01:42.725000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey—sorry to circle back, but I’m still puzzled by one part of the rules and want to be sure I’m engaging in good faith.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:49:29.853000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,aren't there charities that can save a life for a little over $3000? Would donating enough money to save a life honestly,NO,YES,False,True,10.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:35:00.731000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","In a 1-on-1 relationship where the abuser can dedicate significant resources to making their partner feel isolated, yes.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T07:05:49.956000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ok, let me write out some of my thoughts about the ""spirit"" of this market. +Fundamentally, I think the question people ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T04:02:19.178000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Gees. XABDU was right there... Not my guess, this hasn't got a date on it",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T08:05:41.864000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Thanks +, for the clarification. +To add to +'s point above, +Binance.US + does ~$250m per day and has ~500k weekly v",NO,NO,True,True,160.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T20:53:32.777000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,The problem is that nobody knows if a factor 1000 improvement in natural language understanding is enough to solve probl,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-30T00:19:08.320000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"Yeah, I exited the market because of the ambiguity. Are we trying to find out if the narcissist is able to empathize wit",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:53:14.680000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm so glad my market is spawning whatever kind of poetry this is,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:47:55.192000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh, I didn't see that they had bought YES here. Neat! I approve. :)",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:14:30.535000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I can’t in good conscience risk funds on a bet where, if I lose, I can’t afford to pay back loans to people.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero: +(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",NO,NO,True,True,1784.4637,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T18:22:51.789000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Actually, the reason why I'm not going higher is because I think the markets saying that BTC will go over $30k by the en",YES,NO,False,True,125.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T00:14:10.398000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Does the last step still count as geometric reasoning? Seems more like world-modeling.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:32:12.899000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Many people are able to be this abusive towards individuals and yet appear in public and group settings to be civilized.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T13:24:53.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Here some armchair strategy. Steven could re-file at the local small claims court, relying just on state law, and aband",NO,NO,True,True,2249.4637,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:16:56.152000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I agree in general. But in this case I'm not changing anything, just clarifying something I failed to pin down fully. Or",NO,NO,True,True,31231.9606,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:57:15.249000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Unless I messed up my solution, I have a definitive answer to this problem (YES or NO).",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-11-21T23:08:34.986000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,For anyone who'd like a slightly longer time frame:,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,NO,NO,True,True,2154.6372,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-21T23:08:42.529000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Thanks for the comment, Daniel. Perfect timing—I wasn’t sure what I’d say today. First off, I just placed my first bet o",NO,YES,False,True,50.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:25:20.964000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I bought YES as pure speculation and I expect NO. I think there are still a lot of people who profit by keeping the faca,YES,NO,False,True,10.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-28T03:07:06.304000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Oh man Ben. Anything for you. . . I had chatgpt do it. +Forgive the extra dose of slop today, but it seems mostly right",NO,YES,False,True,15100.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T23:12:49.037000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I originally didn't want to reply to this comment to keep to the ""minimize disturbance to market"" philosophy but after r",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T04:08:35.943000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Copying the relevant section for people who don't want to read the whole thing: +I think the strongest case is something",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:30:19.870000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Some of this is paywalled, but I think Hoel is misunderstanding the act/rule utilitarianism distinction: An act utilitar",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-05-24T17:09:55.179000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"There's no implication he wishes he could have done something different, or intends to do something different next time.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-26T02:49:14.804000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This market is a rat’s nest since an extreme narcissist seldom makes legit, earnest (nonmanipulative) apologies, in the ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T02:07:24.946000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"This is not my guess, but there is a bridge term that could be used on these lines",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:33:30.927000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"ah yes, I forgot. Before I book a hotel room for a night, I have a home inspector go over and spend a few hours crawling",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-26T22:03:29.986000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"If you need liquidity, I left a M$10k limit order at 40% for you. I would probably buy NO @ 70%, so I don't think even o",YES,NO,False,True,922.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-05T22:57:45.679000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this on o1 today and got 6 out of 10 on your question. It does interpret "" +What is the minimum and maximum numb",YES,YES,True,True,10134.5965,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:14:11.160000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Ask me again when the market is resolved,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T00:25:12.708000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I know it's not ideal, but I couldn't think of a better way to ask the question. If you have a suggestion I'd be happy t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",YES,NO,False,True,919.1589,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T23:42:23.849000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it's not about whether you break the wall, each single person holding YES shares makes it harder for the wall to be brok",YES,NO,False,True,635.6867,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:14:13.015000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"We now have at least $3250 pledged to some very good charities, and I gotta admit that the fact that you haven’t resolv",NO,YES,False,True,14449.5298,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T01:04:13.568000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Personally, I remember telling at least a handful of people at the time that Sam belonged in a jail cell, but I expect t",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T04:52:17.767000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"i don't know, i feel like the Eliza list might be a distraction. there's decent guesses on it which haven't been made ye",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:51:40.525000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I could see that, maybe - but these things happen fast. One week things will seem fine, and the next it will all be ove",YES,YES,True,True,85.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-05T14:21:20.801000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","The upside surely would be to continue getting his good favor and, more importantly, money. I doubt that was dependent o",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:53:50.667000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"On page 3, you bounded N^(-1/(1+e/n)) below by N^-1. However, this means that on page 1, the actual bound you needed fro",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:09:56.476000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"because it is an asymmetric game. +The NO holders can instantaneously buy a few more shares and make the market resolve ",YES,YES,True,True,58448.9294,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T17:29:44.302000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,What is his excuse? He has to either resolve or claim that he re-filed. Doing neither isn't an option.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-24T18:15:58.785000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: ""Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps r",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T16:43:11.929000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","This article seems to mostly be a rehash of what we had already pieced together months ago. However, their portrayal of ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T10:36:55.643000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Other settlements from Wells Fargo? If he had sued for $39 which is what the case seems worth on its best day, maybe the",NO,NO,True,True,1550.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T13:09:00.631000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Sure, but we now have evidence that he didn’t act entirely rationally, so…",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2134.4637,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T02:03:40.375000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Almost done constructing the Round 3 puzzle. You'll probably be able to tell as soon as the first day's hint hits, but.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-08T15:15:46.821000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If I purchased ""hundreds"" of BTC, and lost them all, and now saw BTC trading near $100k, I think I might go a little cra",NO,NO,True,True,2399.4637,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T20:01:55.515000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I endorse this interpretation and examples.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:25:03.838000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I know it’s not the $10k that you were hoping for, but we have: +$3k to various charities +A truck full of supplies to a",YES,YES,True,True,2.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:27:18.006000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Highly, HIGHLY unlikely. Anthropic's claude-next plan calls for it to be done in the next 18 months (before 2024 end), a",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T11:07:24.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I think you are on to something here. The answer is however known to be from the set of 26 letters. Are there any that d,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-13T02:58:52.163000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,F that was fast. . . . I don't know. I heard he parties pretty hard.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:36:43.120000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",anyway I have sold most of my stake since I could still do so almost costlessly and I now have less confidence in this m,NO,NO,True,True,14.782,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T00:41:31.148000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Rumors circulate. See +this thread + for some of the allegations.",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:12:59.082000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but that profit is the upper limit with the current market price at 95%. When i entered it was 50%. Also, the profit for",YES,YES,True,True,58448.9294,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:15:18.080000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If you beg them to settle for $1 to win in this market, I don't know what to say. I want to see a resolution on the doc",NO,NO,True,True,1784.4637,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T13:32:24.063000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I fell asleep at like 9:30pm yesterday (due to some intense summer solstice sleep debt) and am going to have to read ove,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T05:25:18.793000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok + +I challenge you to a best of 10, 3 min online blitz chess match. If I win, you resolve this market YES. If you w",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:54:18.458000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I would resolve YES for 1 billion mana.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T17:33:51.356000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","https://twitter.com/jonwu_/status/1593263038542381058 +Mr. Bankman-Fried often communicated by using applications that w",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:58:45.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Most of the time when I am not in a contest environment I'm just trolling around so ""top USA mathlete"" doesn't mean that",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:03:56.406000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Yeah, I think my choice of words there was poor. My intention was to point to ""whatever types of fraud caused the FTX co",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:12:30.084000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"right! I think that threatening to review-bomb is an appropriate level of bratting on this market, but that being said,",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T16:31:40.975000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,is Trump expected to inspect venue plumbing quality before booking? Not trying to make a big deal over this but I'm stil,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:10:41.291000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i’ll give $250 to LTFF if bens resolves yes (didn’t vote on the poll). have been thinking about donating this year but t,YES,YES,True,True,50.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:54:08.904000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I should bring traders attention to this note from the AI summary from almost two months ago: +Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T07:04:33.212000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Heck I had a dream about a puzzle just like this on this site except there was also a library exhibit with books and mus,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,120.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:27:30.877000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve yes I will send you cute pictures of my cat.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T05:20:14.329000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","For clarity for anyone reading this comment on Manifold, that whole second paragraph was also supposed to be part of the",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..68cba25f671121a3d0ffbdae94b7380a3e84ed49 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,214 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T22:16:38.834000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,don't waste too many guesses when someone else already guessed the same thing on the same day,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",decrease,hold,False,True,351.9836,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:42:08.843000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"you have the power to consciously choose to not goof off, don't make the same life ruining mistakes I am, be better than",hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-31T07:10:10.276000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Assuming the requirement is ""every question in the set has to be solved at least 50% of the time"". Then obviously it's h",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-05T22:57:45.679000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this on o1 today and got 6 out of 10 on your question. It does interpret "" +What is the minimum and maximum numb",decrease,increase,False,True,10134.5965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:45:20.095000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I don't have a solution (yet), but it looks manageable at a glance",flip,decrease,False,True,645.8866,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T00:34:20.973000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",This market should have a heavy bias to NO because by betting NO one signals one’s own innocence for the low price of f,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:45:46.439000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,he checks and hearts stuff many times per day but only one of those times is the hint time. The pattern has been going o,decrease,hold,False,True,8638.7072,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:38.238000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,but the counterfactual 1k euros seems like a good deal for ben,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:54:21.841000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",But under what circumstances would he have had to explain any such things before FTX's balance sheet was leaked in Novem,decrease,decrease,True,True,1241.628,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T11:06:02.209000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I will join @Gen in their offer. I pledge 50% of my profits on this market to the primary partners of + +@Gen is respo",flip,hold,False,True,35.125,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T02:09:55.962000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Well, third time to analyze one of these things. +The ""float around 50%"" argument still seems to apply at a high level. ",increase,increase,True,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:13.001000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Why on earth would you want an error free hint?,flip,hold,False,True,414.5979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,flip,True,True,76.996,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with + if he resolves no",hold,flip,False,True,735.3906,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T18:43:39.969000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",This does not seem related to what I said.,hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-25T18:07:14.846000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I've edited it in to the market description just now. Thanks for the prompt!,decrease,hold,False,True,13564.6088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T00:50:46.219000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Also we now know that it takes at least 6 minutes to prepare the hint.,flip,hold,False,True,3704.1338,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T15:20:19.482000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I’ll add a lot more to show support for the TFC,increase,increase,True,True,2131.0191,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T01:56:54.607000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"The given strategy is nondeterministic, so it does not solve the problem.",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T20:32:57.903000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I precommit to eating twice as many chickens as Robin.,flip,hold,False,True,134.929,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:24:06.386000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),people could at least try to brute force it but we’re getting like five to ten guesses per day,flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,flip,decrease,False,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T23:04:07.361000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Would you like to tie my hands for a price and prevent me from buying YES or selling NO? That seems like a more concrete,hold,hold,True,True,56.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:21:10.551000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Make sure to check out some of the options over there!,increase,hold,False,True,3989.4167,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T15:47:33.155000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I agree now that there's a lot of ambiguity. I'll write a top-level comment.,hold,decrease,False,True,320.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T20:20:28.319000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,That's a great point. My original benchmark question originally generated all manner of confusion and consternation amon,decrease,decrease,True,True,32845.8691,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:33:25.219000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,though that could change if the market position were reversed,hold,decrease,False,True,190.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T13:54:40.990000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,", I'm assuming that if two people have over 5,000 NO shares then this market will resolve YES. +, is that right?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T14:03:16.673000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Oh, the IO thing is already solved! Just waiting for more hints. +https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/what-is-the-right-a",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T16:47:23.335000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"It was a guaranteed 5% right away, and this was a probably 5% in two weeks.",decrease,hold,False,True,279.2884,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",flip,hold,False,True,4581.2297,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T15:57:22.100000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"What false have I said about you? And, if you did sue me for making false statements, that case would get thrown out bec",increase,increase,True,True,3120.0573,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T01:00:00.226000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"you have ISHBIERRA, there should be another I in there.",increase,increase,True,True,3376.5184,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",increase,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:12:23.881000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",The FTX deposit account was literally Alameda's bank account. That is customers were depositing funds directly to Alamed,decrease,increase,False,True,491.1779,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T17:09:16.457000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"the problem doesn't sound too hard, and I have some ideas myself that I want to work out tomorrow.",flip,decrease,False,True,1241.7914,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:41:43.965000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""Looking"" how? Neither Will nor Tara had access to balance sheets. And just because someone is generally an unlawful oat",hold,increase,False,True,1800.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T16:45:18.137000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I'm glad all these clues have errors so no one will be able to solve the puzzle.,decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So +{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese? +{harbor, h",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: +https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",hold,decrease,False,True,1279.9304,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:38:39.583000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Wow, crazy timing! Good thing we didn't try that, we could have bought a lot of No shares and still gotten an error in o",flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:52:59.081000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, have some type of fun in the comments!",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:21:21.546000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I understand that but I think + is correct that 59 is not a good equilibrium point +if we want to solve it.",flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-24T12:21:03.939000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",even re-reading the New Yorker excerpts? I was thinking the opposite this morning,hold,flip,False,True,468.7276,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T14:59:23.515000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"The main idea is likely to only add one element of each found element of B to R at a time, so we eliminate as few possib",increase,hold,False,True,419.3523,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:10:43.806000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's a problem that was making me doubt whether it actually understands: +Draw an equilateral triangle pointing up. Ne",decrease,decrease,True,True,31781.3143,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:29:04.915000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If Ai Can't figure that out, are there any timetravellers or mind readers here?",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T13:05:49.437000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"English language for reference +The O/I thing seems +REALLY + relevant. Every single word has either an o or an i; what",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-19T22:54:45.577000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I did see that but it was not up to date when I checked it.,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T04:26:49.487000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),As soon as you hold those No shares you gotta suit up and play the part. Once you become a net Yes holder you can start ,flip,hold,False,True,3704.1338,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T07:30:16.544000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Not quite sure what this is referencing. +Edit: Ah, I see, just looking at the first letters of words.",flip,hold,False,True,4615.0118,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-20T19:15:45.864000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","> Yeah, well that's the crux. Just being known to some people somewhere is not good enough. It would have to be all the ",increase,increase,True,True,73.9925,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T16:22:43.537000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i will bring miacat back if you resolve yes,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:28:20.268000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending ",hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:46:29.363000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"No, it wouldn't make sense. Paying on this kind of thing is encouraging more of it. This is just part of the cost of d",increase,increase,True,True,19.4637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes +or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T14:02:52.648000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Nice. I think he got the earning to give schtick from a MacAskill talk at MIT.,hold,hold,True,True,2124.358,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T02:16:25.837000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Ok, let's try Monday and ""Hapax"" legomenon = a symbol, word, or sequence that appears only once in a text",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-02T00:28:47.771000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"For posterity, here's my suite of alternate problems and the log of the results I got. Note that everything after Proble",hold,decrease,False,True,31510.6908,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-25T19:24:57.516000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I thought the situation here that might trigger resolution yes was that someone in the Slack discussion got a serious be,hold,decrease,False,True,17940.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:22:37.360000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Would you be able to say how you'll decide whether ""they had enough evidence to conclude there was fraud happening""? +I",increase,decrease,False,True,876.092,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post +for free + (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,increase,False,True,27486.464,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:59:34.170000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"we NO holders will be respectful and not abuse review, regardless of your decision",decrease,hold,False,True,8305.4964,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:15:05.554000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You don't think I would cut off three of my toes for 15 units of fake internet money? And here I was thinking you knew m,flip,flip,True,True,15.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:35:13.703000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",(tbh I wish you would write more thorough & rigorous definitions of market criteria in general),decrease,hold,False,True,14.782,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:36:38.778000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Uhh okay. I dont have an alt in this market. My main alt used to be + but i've not used that in a while. The top No hol",increase,hold,False,True,60248.9294,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T23:57:12.578000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,We probably should confirm though... it's at the time of close right?,increase,decrease,False,True,76.8838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:33:39.340000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I'm not sure lots of companies have nearly as bad accounting!! (and the bad accounting IS ""unethical behavior related to",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T21:56:07.847000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If this is at 49, that means people think that we still wouldn't get it even with 16 more hints!",flip,decrease,False,True,3631.2297,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T20:44:23.782000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,oh wait this is all about at close. NVM. Disregard.,increase,decrease,False,True,26969.2087,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T10:25:22.735000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Let's eliminate 1 and 2 as too skewed towards NO and YES, respectively. I'm actually not sure if any bettor would expect",decrease,decrease,True,True,31231.9606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False,True,295.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:55:59.603000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Period +Used when the symbol has a linguistic or grammatical role: +End of a sentence",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,decrease,True,True,798.3539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:14:11.357000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Anyone else noticed every hint has I or O in it?,increase,hold,False,True,46.8628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T23:02:45.724000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Bots are not reliable sources!,flip,decrease,False,True,116.238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:41:39.036000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,That would explain a lot. But 9gag and 9lives are still out of place.,decrease,decrease,True,True,6314.3955,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:46:18.032000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"yes +Link + to an example chat, where GPT-4 Chat model solves it.",hold,increase,False,True,22401.9362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-07-14T17:57:03.363000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.wsj.com/articles/binance-lays-off-over-1-000-employees-d59ff6ad +The exercise, which is continuing, could re",hold,increase,False,True,69.0363,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:43:32.690000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I don't have GPT4. Do you mean nailed?,hold,decrease,False,True,1211.4803,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T00:01:49.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","self-sovereign money +…..offshore exchanges +……………………………..market-maker on own exchange +………………………………………high FDV/low f",increase,flip,False,True,91.6133,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T08:15:10.071000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We need a Metaculus metamarket.,hold,hold,True,True,1007.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:55:37.659000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I don’t think this can be resolved either way without testing the model with the highest likelihood of passing. +I thin",increase,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-05T00:14:31.841000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"si LK 5 🤣 +Lest you ask think I've gone mad.",increase,hold,False,True,2947.8207,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,flip,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-29T15:46:53.777000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: What did you picture when you made this market? What do you find beautiful and strange? +Ben, I’m going to set as",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:55:26.407000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Anyone who has significant social status within the EA community or has the power to move large quantities of EA-allocat,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T04:43:40.353000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2023-11-29/portuguese-vet-goes-viral/83754 +André Santos + from +Portugal + went v",hold,hold,True,True,53.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T16:45:57.551000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This is not an action in assumpsit (contract), trespass (a tort), or brought by a government agency for fines. You are b",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,hold,decrease,False,True,18456.112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:44:55.822000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"i think it means that the communication of the LLM and the adjacent systems is through natural language, making sure tha",hold,increase,False,True,22401.9362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Tldr; +Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""! +Cool bro. We should ha",hold,increase,False,True,945.4007,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T06:46:30.253000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"People kept buying the market really low (50%-60%) right at the start and I wanted my subsidy to move +p + as close to ",increase,hold,False,True,4359.4086,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T18:56:01.245000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I really don't think we will solve it, people should buy like 10,000 mana of No shares right now.",flip,increase,False,True,589.8429,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:16:27.296000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,it's ok if the LLM calls other systems as subroutines as long as it still works as purely natural language dialog,hold,increase,False,True,20981.5321,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:35:43.756000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Keep track of moving parts in the explanation. For example, when pressed on the FTX TOS, he always started talking about",hold,increase,False,True,28.9702,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:56:19.436000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it looks like it hasn’t been tried. Weird. +Note that ‘hamlet’ was not capitalized. The Shakespeare reference may be a ",increase,hold,False,True,680.7731,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:37:06.543000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"if there is any logic , LLM models might be able to solve it",flip,flip,True,True,13.9625,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T05:06:45.742000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Did you read the justification post? More than half of them were just hand-waving.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10284.2137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T18:44:33.863000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"If you are interested in solving it yourself, I recommend not reading the comments and not looking at any of the other m",increase,hold,False,True,2241.3248,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False,True,2501.5435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:42:40.668000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"even if you don't intend on repeating, it sets a precedent for future threats from others",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:55.835000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"It's a good way to solve the puzzle, if we can get at least one hint day with no errors!",flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T01:03:11.930000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"exactly, we all do the same probably",increase,hold,False,True,209.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T13:54:29.625000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given the high standard for this market, I agree that this is insufficient. But in real life, where standards are differ",increase,decrease,False,True,132.9797,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T00:02:33.851000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"A link to a hypothetical well-structured onramp, collaboration and discussion space",hold,hold,True,True,155.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T23:43:44.511000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),what should I add to the pinned comment? The guesses?,decrease,hold,False,True,1164.5083,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T11:40:11.938000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Just to be clear, my offer was that if the market resolves NO + will get half my profits. You don't have to do anything",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T19:38:45.040000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I don't know if I'm the best trader on the site. I am also most certainly not the richest, that would be the founders, p",hold,hold,True,True,59862.1179,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T15:53:57.174000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I'm curious about the following: I can't find any case law on whether discussions with LLMs would be discoverable or ad,hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T17:18:47.367000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Another coastal city... this doesn't help,decrease,decrease,True,True,5858.0321,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:38:26.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We need AAAAR, AAAAS, AAAAT, AAAAU, AAAAV, AAAAW, AAAAX, AAAAY, AAAAZ to be guessed.",flip,decrease,False,True,141.1758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:14:14.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Folks, it makes no sense to buy YES before he has given us today’s hints.",decrease,decrease,True,True,1879.4639,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:56:09.807000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,What if this problem is provably in NP? Then would the market resolve NO because the answer is not known (assuming I can,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:37:31.165000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"edit: +year of kindness, ignore",increase,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T21:51:58.562000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think this would be significantly easier if we had one clean hint with no errors.,flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-09T21:10:14.177000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"for what it's worth, I still find these criteria quite vague and would like and invest in this market more if you specif",flip,decrease,False,True,229.0267,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:10:56.924000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What's your plan? You want to accumulate infinite Yes shares while also blocking the release of more clues? I would have,flip,decrease,False,True,2405.1062,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T14:08:58.651000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"""Regulator’s lawsuit asks federal judge to freeze company’s assets"" +https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sues-crypto-exchan",increase,increase,True,True,22.141,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:35:38.978000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Main issue is I can't submit guesses because I can never figure out what day it is.,hold,decrease,False,True,1677.3368,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:58:02.428000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Surplus guesses for anyone’s taking at: +https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/will-bens-puzzle-be-solved-in-the-l#208lwsui1i",increase,hold,False,True,437.0176,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:23:49.238000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,what is your estimate of the probability that it would happen in the counterfactual that it was not resolved no? going f,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically. +Or loosing vast ",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T04:32:13.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"At the time I wrote that, the market was at like 57% or something and there were multiple thousands of limit order walls",increase,hold,False,True,2263.2867,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T05:47:08.778000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I have another one in the same series!,hold,hold,True,True,178.3577,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-10T06:15:27.891000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I banked mine a couple days ago and didn't get reprimanded.,increase,hold,False,True,2306.2562,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:53:40.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"17/12/25: +C-XXX ( +The solution must consist of +five letters from the English alphabet + (the 26 standard letters A",increase,hold,False,True,15.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:14:38.384000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Why do you think it has to be the person running the market who would do this. Anyone can do it.,decrease,hold,False,True,5075.0982,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T22:45:21.130000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,…and it resolves to whether Manifold solves it in time or to the problem's answer?,flip,hold,False,True,1.9858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:36:51.176000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"weird! I did that prompt and then also tried with numbering 1–4. In either case, I get 20-40 seconds of thought with con",increase,decrease,False,True,2792.9622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:44:01.537000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Thinking about this it’s clear they obviously knew so anything short of publicly exposing him as an unethical fraud is a,hold,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T16:47:39.317000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Betting no because he said in another thread he is using statistical models to judge legal documents for him.,hold,hold,True,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:28:53.996000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),You presume I want to solve the puzzle,flip,decrease,False,True,414.5979,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T09:01:00.228000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think your original post was actually pretty clear! +If you wanted to further clarify, you could say something like: """,hold,decrease,False,True,1165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,increase,False,True,426.8103,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:26:09.274000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,The algorithm only generates one query that tests 1/100n^2 of the possible Q. It can't cover all possible Q in a small n,increase,decrease,False,True,1213.9562,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/ + Coinba",hold,increase,False,True,271.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T22:03:02.808000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I'll get pro mode if necessary. The market description says it still counts if it costs money.,decrease,increase,False,True,31878.534,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T03:16:20.157000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Is there still a secret group working in the shadows? I want in,decrease,hold,False,True,8552.9027,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T01:13:47.765000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Or of they had incredibly poor epistemics/trust despite hearing/knowing bad or very bad stuff,decrease,decrease,True,True,180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T18:22:01.026000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I'm gonna take so much EA money on this one lmao,decrease,increase,False,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T04:42:25.281000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Resolve YES and this market has the potential to become a legendary meme on Manifold, a NO will simply be forgotten and ",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T21:31:48.524000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","relative to your market description, these points seem pretty tame. IMO 1, 3, and 5 would have been pretty clear to anyo",hold,decrease,False,True,73.9925,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:56:06.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Evidence of trollness, this robot has exactly 1 trick:",hold,decrease,False,True,11688.3788,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False,True,7.3074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-10T21:04:11.344000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Honestly, I will be sad when this market resolves. It's been a fun roller coaster. [Granted, that's becasue most of this",increase,hold,False,True,2470.0573,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:41:40.822000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"If you resolve this market YES, it means humans are performing well relative to AI. Since I presume you're a human, this",decrease,decrease,True,True,21.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:26:52.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"basically, I don't believe he would have made the puzzle in a way that we could ""just guess it"" with a handful of hints.",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T16:54:58.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I think cats have ""9 lives"", not ""9lives"", which is probably not a real thing.",decrease,decrease,True,True,11659.1888,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T07:05:25.956000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think we would derive a huge benefit from one error-free hint OR one hint with the meta hint attached. It would not le,decrease,decrease,True,True,1650.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a0d0d55d2ff5848dbf897baf36ab54bb4eb3f010 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,101 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T23:43:44.511000+00:00,what should I add to the pinned comment? The guesses?,decrease,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",decrease,hold,False +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T09:01:00.228000+00:00,"I think your original post was actually pretty clear! +If you wanted to further clarify, you could say something like: """,hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T05:06:45.742000+00:00,Did you read the justification post? More than half of them were just hand-waving.,decrease,decrease,True +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T07:05:25.956000+00:00,I think we would derive a huge benefit from one error-free hint OR one hint with the meta hint attached. It would not le,decrease,hold,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-25T18:07:14.846000+00:00,I've edited it in to the market description just now. Thanks for the prompt!,decrease,decrease,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:12:23.881000+00:00,The FTX deposit account was literally Alameda's bank account. That is customers were depositing funds directly to Alamed,decrease,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T18:43:39.969000+00:00,This does not seem related to what I said.,hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T16:54:58.088000+00:00,"I think cats have ""9 lives"", not ""9lives"", which is probably not a real thing.",decrease,decrease,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:54:21.841000+00:00,But under what circumstances would he have had to explain any such things before FTX's balance sheet was leaked in Novem,decrease,hold,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:44:55.822000+00:00,"i think it means that the communication of the LLM and the adjacent systems is through natural language, making sure tha",hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T04:43:40.353000+00:00,"https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2023-11-29/portuguese-vet-goes-viral/83754 +André Santos + from +Portugal + went v",hold,decrease,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:14:14.857000+00:00,"Folks, it makes no sense to buy YES before he has given us today’s hints.",decrease,hold,False +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T16:47:39.317000+00:00,Betting no because he said in another thread he is using statistical models to judge legal documents for him.,hold,decrease,False +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T16:47:23.335000+00:00,"It was a guaranteed 5% right away, and this was a probably 5% in two weeks.",decrease,decrease,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T14:02:52.648000+00:00,Nice. I think he got the earning to give schtick from a MacAskill talk at MIT.,hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-29T15:46:53.777000+00:00,"TL;DR: What did you picture when you made this market? What do you find beautiful and strange? +Ben, I’m going to set as",hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"Tldr; +Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""! +Cool bro. We should ha",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:42:08.843000+00:00,"you have the power to consciously choose to not goof off, don't make the same life ruining mistakes I am, be better than",hold,decrease,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T17:18:47.367000+00:00,Another coastal city... this doesn't help,decrease,decrease,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:38.238000+00:00,but the counterfactual 1k euros seems like a good deal for ben,hold,decrease,False +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T19:38:45.040000+00:00,"I don't know if I'm the best trader on the site. I am also most certainly not the richest, that would be the founders, p",hold,hold,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-02T00:28:47.771000+00:00,"For posterity, here's my suite of alternate problems and the log of the results I got. Note that everything after Proble",hold,decrease,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T00:02:33.851000+00:00,"A link to a hypothetical well-structured onramp, collaboration and discussion space",hold,hold,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:43:32.690000+00:00,I don't have GPT4. Do you mean nailed?,hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-19T22:54:45.577000+00:00,I did see that but it was not up to date when I checked it.,decrease,decrease,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:10:43.806000+00:00,"Here's a problem that was making me doubt whether it actually understands: +Draw an equilateral triangle pointing up. Ne",decrease,decrease,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:56:06.647000+00:00,"Evidence of trollness, this robot has exactly 1 trick:",hold,decrease,False +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:33:25.219000+00:00,though that could change if the market position were reversed,hold,decrease,False +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/ + Coinba",hold,decrease,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:35:13.703000+00:00,(tbh I wish you would write more thorough & rigorous definitions of market criteria in general),decrease,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So +{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese? +{harbor, h",decrease,hold,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,decrease,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T03:16:20.157000+00:00,Is there still a secret group working in the shadows? I want in,decrease,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T18:22:01.026000+00:00,I'm gonna take so much EA money on this one lmao,decrease,decrease,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T22:16:38.834000+00:00,don't waste too many guesses when someone else already guessed the same thing on the same day,decrease,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:41:39.036000+00:00,That would explain a lot. But 9gag and 9lives are still out of place.,decrease,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: +https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",hold,decrease,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,Good idea. I added that to the description.,decrease,hold,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:46:18.032000+00:00,"yes +Link + to an example chat, where GPT-4 Chat model solves it.",hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:35:43.756000+00:00,"Keep track of moving parts in the explanation. For example, when pressed on the FTX TOS, he always started talking about",hold,hold,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T11:40:11.938000+00:00,"Just to be clear, my offer was that if the market resolves NO + will get half my profits. You don't have to do anything",decrease,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T08:15:10.071000+00:00,We need a Metaculus metamarket.,hold,hold,True +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T15:53:57.174000+00:00,I'm curious about the following: I can't find any case law on whether discussions with LLMs would be discoverable or ad,hold,decrease,False +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:14:38.384000+00:00,Why do you think it has to be the person running the market who would do this. Anyone can do it.,decrease,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:55:26.407000+00:00,Anyone who has significant social status within the EA community or has the power to move large quantities of EA-allocat,decrease,decrease,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:33:39.340000+00:00,"I'm not sure lots of companies have nearly as bad accounting!! (and the bad accounting IS ""unethical behavior related to",decrease,decrease,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:28:20.268000+00:00,"""The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending ",hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:41:43.965000+00:00,"""Looking"" how? Neither Will nor Tara had access to balance sheets. And just because someone is generally an unlawful oat",hold,hold,True +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,hold,decrease,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T01:13:47.765000+00:00,Or of they had incredibly poor epistemics/trust despite hearing/knowing bad or very bad stuff,decrease,decrease,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T20:20:28.319000+00:00,That's a great point. My original benchmark question originally generated all manner of confusion and consternation amon,decrease,hold,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:41:40.822000+00:00,"If you resolve this market YES, it means humans are performing well relative to AI. Since I presume you're a human, this",decrease,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T05:47:08.778000+00:00,I have another one in the same series!,hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T21:31:48.524000+00:00,"relative to your market description, these points seem pretty tame. IMO 1, 3, and 5 would have been pretty clear to anyo",hold,decrease,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,decrease,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically. +Or loosing vast ",decrease,decrease,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T10:25:22.735000+00:00,"Let's eliminate 1 and 2 as too skewed towards NO and YES, respectively. I'm actually not sure if any bettor would expect",decrease,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,decrease,hold,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with + if he resolves no",hold,decrease,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-07-14T17:57:03.363000+00:00,"https://www.wsj.com/articles/binance-lays-off-over-1-000-employees-d59ff6ad +The exercise, which is continuing, could re",hold,decrease,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T16:22:43.537000+00:00,i will bring miacat back if you resolve yes,hold,hold,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:16:27.296000+00:00,it's ok if the LLM calls other systems as subroutines as long as it still works as purely natural language dialog,hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:59:34.170000+00:00,"we NO holders will be respectful and not abuse review, regardless of your decision",decrease,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-24T12:21:03.939000+00:00,even re-reading the New Yorker excerpts? I was thinking the opposite this morning,hold,decrease,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-25T19:24:57.516000+00:00,I thought the situation here that might trigger resolution yes was that someone in the Slack discussion got a serious be,hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:52:59.081000+00:00,"thanks, have some type of fun in the comments!",decrease,hold,False +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T16:45:18.137000+00:00,I'm glad all these clues have errors so no one will be able to solve the puzzle.,decrease,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T00:34:20.973000+00:00,This market should have a heavy bias to NO because by betting NO one signals one’s own innocence for the low price of f,decrease,decrease,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:45:46.439000+00:00,he checks and hearts stuff many times per day but only one of those times is the hint time. The pattern has been going o,decrease,hold,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T22:03:02.808000+00:00,I'll get pro mode if necessary. The market description says it still counts if it costs money.,decrease,decrease,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-05T22:57:45.679000+00:00,"I tried this on o1 today and got 6 out of 10 on your question. It does interpret "" +What is the minimum and maximum numb",decrease,decrease,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:35:38.978000+00:00,Main issue is I can't submit guesses because I can never figure out what day it is.,hold,decrease,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:44:01.537000+00:00,Thinking about this it’s clear they obviously knew so anything short of publicly exposing him as an unethical fraud is a,hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T15:47:33.155000+00:00,I agree now that there's a lot of ambiguity. I'll write a top-level comment.,hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T23:04:07.361000+00:00,Would you like to tie my hands for a price and prevent me from buying YES or selling NO? That seems like a more concrete,hold,decrease,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4a99fc857801b5ecf8b6104656cc4b64caba5603 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:21:21.546000+00:00,"I understand that but I think + is correct that 59 is not a good equilibrium point +if we want to solve it.",flip,hold,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,flip,hold,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:15:05.554000+00:00,You don't think I would cut off three of my toes for 15 units of fake internet money? And here I was thinking you knew m,flip,flip,True +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,"i have a new potential solution which I will post +for free + (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,hold,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T01:56:54.607000+00:00,"The given strategy is nondeterministic, so it does not solve the problem.",flip,hold,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T21:56:07.847000+00:00,"If this is at 49, that means people think that we still wouldn't get it even with 16 more hints!",flip,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T09:01:00.228000+00:00,"I think your original post was actually pretty clear! +If you wanted to further clarify, you could say something like: """,hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T20:32:57.903000+00:00,I precommit to eating twice as many chickens as Robin.,flip,hold,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes +or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,hold,False +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T16:47:39.317000+00:00,Betting no because he said in another thread he is using statistical models to judge legal documents for him.,hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T18:43:39.969000+00:00,This does not seem related to what I said.,hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,flip,flip,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:37:06.543000+00:00,"if there is any logic , LLM models might be able to solve it",flip,flip,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:42:08.843000+00:00,"you have the power to consciously choose to not goof off, don't make the same life ruining mistakes I am, be better than",hold,flip,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"Tldr; +Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""! +Cool bro. We should ha",hold,hold,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:44:55.822000+00:00,"i think it means that the communication of the LLM and the adjacent systems is through natural language, making sure tha",hold,hold,True +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T19:38:45.040000+00:00,"I don't know if I'm the best trader on the site. I am also most certainly not the richest, that would be the founders, p",hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T04:43:40.353000+00:00,"https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2023-11-29/portuguese-vet-goes-viral/83754 +André Santos + from +Portugal + went v",hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T14:02:52.648000+00:00,Nice. I think he got the earning to give schtick from a MacAskill talk at MIT.,hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T18:56:01.245000+00:00,"I really don't think we will solve it, people should buy like 10,000 mana of No shares right now.",flip,hold,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:38.238000+00:00,but the counterfactual 1k euros seems like a good deal for ben,hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-29T15:46:53.777000+00:00,"TL;DR: What did you picture when you made this market? What do you find beautiful and strange? +Ben, I’m going to set as",hold,flip,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-02T00:28:47.771000+00:00,"For posterity, here's my suite of alternate problems and the log of the results I got. Note that everything after Proble",hold,flip,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:24:06.386000+00:00,people could at least try to brute force it but we’re getting like five to ten guesses per day,flip,hold,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:43:32.690000+00:00,I don't have GPT4. Do you mean nailed?,hold,hold,True +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T00:02:33.851000+00:00,"A link to a hypothetical well-structured onramp, collaboration and discussion space",hold,hold,True +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T00:50:46.219000+00:00,Also we now know that it takes at least 6 minutes to prepare the hint.,flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T23:02:45.724000+00:00,Bots are not reliable sources!,flip,hold,False +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:55.835000+00:00,"It's a good way to solve the puzzle, if we can get at least one hint day with no errors!",flip,hold,False +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:33:25.219000+00:00,though that could change if the market position were reversed,hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:56:06.647000+00:00,"Evidence of trollness, this robot has exactly 1 trick:",hold,flip,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:35:43.756000+00:00,"Keep track of moving parts in the explanation. For example, when pressed on the FTX TOS, he always started talking about",hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,hold,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:46:18.032000+00:00,"yes +Link + to an example chat, where GPT-4 Chat model solves it.",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: +https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:10:56.924000+00:00,What's your plan? You want to accumulate infinite Yes shares while also blocking the release of more clues? I would have,flip,flip,True +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/ + Coinba",hold,hold,True +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T21:51:58.562000+00:00,I think this would be significantly easier if we had one clean hint with no errors.,flip,hold,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:56:09.807000+00:00,What if this problem is provably in NP? Then would the market resolve NO because the answer is not known (assuming I can,flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:38:26.132000+00:00,"We need AAAAR, AAAAS, AAAAT, AAAAU, AAAAV, AAAAW, AAAAX, AAAAY, AAAAZ to be guessed.",flip,hold,False +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T04:26:49.487000+00:00,As soon as you hold those No shares you gotta suit up and play the part. Once you become a net Yes holder you can start ,flip,flip,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-09T21:10:14.177000+00:00,"for what it's worth, I still find these criteria quite vague and would like and invest in this market more if you specif",flip,flip,True +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:38:39.583000+00:00,"Wow, crazy timing! Good thing we didn't try that, we could have bought a lot of No shares and still gotten an error in o",flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T08:15:10.071000+00:00,We need a Metaculus metamarket.,hold,hold,True +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T15:53:57.174000+00:00,I'm curious about the following: I can't find any case law on whether discussions with LLMs would be discoverable or ad,hold,flip,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:41:43.965000+00:00,"""Looking"" how? Neither Will nor Tara had access to balance sheets. And just because someone is generally an unlawful oat",hold,hold,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T11:06:02.209000+00:00,"I will join @Gen in their offer. I pledge 50% of my profits on this market to the primary partners of + +@Gen is respo",flip,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T21:31:48.524000+00:00,"relative to your market description, these points seem pretty tame. IMO 1, 3, and 5 would have been pretty clear to anyo",hold,flip,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T17:09:16.457000+00:00,"the problem doesn't sound too hard, and I have some ideas myself that I want to work out tomorrow.",flip,hold,False +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,hold,flip,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T07:30:16.544000+00:00,"Not quite sure what this is referencing. +Edit: Ah, I see, just looking at the first letters of words.",flip,hold,False +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:13.001000+00:00,Why on earth would you want an error free hint?,flip,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:28:20.268000+00:00,"""The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending ",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with + if he resolves no",hold,flip,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T05:47:08.778000+00:00,I have another one in the same series!,hold,flip,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:29:04.915000+00:00,"If Ai Can't figure that out, are there any timetravellers or mind readers here?",flip,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-24T12:21:03.939000+00:00,even re-reading the New Yorker excerpts? I was thinking the opposite this morning,hold,flip,False +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-07-14T17:57:03.363000+00:00,"https://www.wsj.com/articles/binance-lays-off-over-1-000-employees-d59ff6ad +The exercise, which is continuing, could re",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T16:22:43.537000+00:00,i will bring miacat back if you resolve yes,hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:16:27.296000+00:00,it's ok if the LLM calls other systems as subroutines as long as it still works as purely natural language dialog,hold,hold,True +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:28:53.996000+00:00,You presume I want to solve the puzzle,flip,hold,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:45:20.095000+00:00,"I don't have a solution (yet), but it looks manageable at a glance",flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",flip,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-25T19:24:57.516000+00:00,I thought the situation here that might trigger resolution yes was that someone in the Slack discussion got a serious be,hold,hold,True +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T22:45:21.130000+00:00,…and it resolves to whether Manifold solves it in time or to the problem's answer?,flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T02:16:25.837000+00:00,"Ok, let's try Monday and ""Hapax"" legomenon = a symbol, word, or sequence that appears only once in a text",flip,flip,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:44:01.537000+00:00,Thinking about this it’s clear they obviously knew so anything short of publicly exposing him as an unethical fraud is a,hold,hold,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T23:04:07.361000+00:00,Would you like to tie my hands for a price and prevent me from buying YES or selling NO? That seems like a more concrete,hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:35:38.978000+00:00,Main issue is I can't submit guesses because I can never figure out what day it is.,hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T15:47:33.155000+00:00,I agree now that there's a lot of ambiguity. I'll write a top-level comment.,hold,hold,True +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:26:52.555000+00:00,"basically, I don't believe he would have made the puzzle in a way that we could ""just guess it"" with a handful of hints.",flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:55:59.603000+00:00,"Period +Used when the symbol has a linguistic or grammatical role: +End of a sentence",flip,hold,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f48495031be0c316053766742b7a63ea8700ed51 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,202 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-06T19:59:59.205000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"yeah well, I had a couple of good guesses in store that I wanted to try before the new batch.",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.3354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T23:07:50.922000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I did not need to use AI for this: a 9-iron is a type of golf club,decrease,hold,False,True,5922.8747,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:59:54.639000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"If you wouldn't resolve in exchange for me donating a trunk of supplies to a Vietnamese orphanage, I don't think anythin",hold,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T01:56:54.607000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"The given strategy is nondeterministic, so it does not solve the problem.",increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:27:50.353000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It depends on what you mean by that. +Example: based on things like Tara's tweet + today's Money Stuff describing how in",decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T21:03:40.248000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"12/9/25: ADATE +All guesses must include a date in the submission",flip,hold,False,True,154.5049,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T19:49:44.411000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"He said it's harder this time, so it's probably gonna be something even more wack. I doubt we would be able to get headw",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T15:20:19.482000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I’ll add a lot more to show support for the TFC,increase,increase,True,True,2131.0191,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:51:26.631000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Fair points. Of course I'm doing my best to keep all the problems at the same level of difficulty. I'd characterize that,decrease,hold,False,True,31981.9606,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:38.238000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,but the counterfactual 1k euros seems like a good deal for ben,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T16:08:14.148000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"if it's in the list, someone probably tried it. The list may not be complete. There may have been errors in data extract",flip,decrease,False,True,589.8429,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,decrease,decrease,True,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T23:02:45.724000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Bots are not reliable sources!,flip,decrease,False,True,116.238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:26:54.706000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea im pretty sure us NOers are willing to sacrifice a lil profit to up the bribe if needed >:),increase,increase,True,True,181.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:16:26.184000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"What will you do after that, share more info on your reasoning or continue to buy Yes shares?",flip,hold,False,True,2405.1062,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:25:49.171000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),if you cancel your 36 orders before the hint comes out I will buy enough No to get it to 35 for an error free hint today,flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-27T03:10:31.517000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,VPP can be Voiced (something) Plosive as well?,hold,hold,True,True,351.9836,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T13:54:40.990000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,", I'm assuming that if two people have over 5,000 NO shares then this market will resolve YES. +, is that right?",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T01:26:56.835000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Or add them to the multi-market so we can bet on them!,decrease,hold,False,True,5420.9695,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:24:06.386000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),people could at least try to brute force it but we’re getting like five to ten guesses per day,flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T04:53:05.799000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),how many hints/bits when it is solved,increase,decrease,False,True,4359.4086,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:24:23.686000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"And I guess to prevent some people from doing that, you should resolve YES in case they do.",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:13:41.841000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Good news! God told me that you must resolve this YES. (He also told me that I must marry your wife. I didn't want to bu,flip,hold,False,True,660.3906,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T11:58:01.040000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sure. But this is expensive, and risky.",flip,decrease,False,True,384.1431,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T22:45:21.130000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,…and it resolves to whether Manifold solves it in time or to the problem's answer?,flip,hold,False,True,1.9858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T09:58:22.909000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"review OP's other comments, he said he's gotten other settlements previously",hold,increase,False,True,882.0976,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T21:36:02.105000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"In all seriousness, Ben is cool, and I like the antics he gets up to.",decrease,hold,False,True,85.5049,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,increase,increase,True,True,142.7698,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:35:45.567000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"it's asymmetric though, splitting the profit is not enough, since they have nothing to lose but you do",hold,decrease,False,True,598.0875,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,decrease,decrease,True,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:43:32.690000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I don't have GPT4. Do you mean nailed?,hold,decrease,False,True,1211.4803,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T15:38:31.034000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"it shouldn't be giving you a different model unless you select the ""Auto"" experimental feature.",increase,hold,False,True,3292.9622,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T01:45:18.868000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,how about instead of weird stuff we just do it the straightforward way.,increase,decrease,False,True,6275.9066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T21:04:47.445000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Sir, there is nothing classic about this ""strategy""; there is a real alien bomb placed in the core of the Earth - they'v",decrease,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I’m hoping we can get price under 40%. I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,decrease,False,True,74.3604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T20:54:53.563000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Nicely done. All i got to does is hold these shares for the remaining time of this market. Then it resolve YES,hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T01:31:23.446000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"If you want the actual program idea, I think what we should do is: +- First, we manually list 3-4 possible picture inter",increase,increase,True,True,761.872,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T19:16:53.025000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I meant that EA leaders aren't precluded from seeing smoking guns of specific lawbreaking just because early Alameda emp,increase,decrease,False,True,593.7603,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T22:48:54.663000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's not even Christmas yet, I thought Santa would be busy making elves or whatever he does.",increase,decrease,False,True,11762.6925,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:14:14.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Folks, it makes no sense to buy YES before he has given us today’s hints.",decrease,decrease,True,True,1879.4639,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T21:21:30.498000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Number of guesses per day isn’t meaningful, because it won’t be solved by stabs in the dark. Being solved after clue 21 ",flip,decrease,False,True,251.6507,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T19:18:50.773000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,thank you for letting it slide,hold,hold,True,True,7827.0253,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:34:04.350000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,The true filter to determine which of us here are Millenials or older.,decrease,hold,False,True,61.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:54:36.419000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Sounds like the possible protocols are as follows, assuming k trials each for n problems: +If, for every one of the n pr",decrease,decrease,True,True,31231.9606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up. + since you’r",hold,hold,True,True,14529.9924,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:00:50.217000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"yeah i feel lied to as well, please resolve yes so that our time it took to invest is not in vain",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:01:04.895000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Thanks! I agree these are of similar difficulty (though I think the first one should clarify that the triangle and squar,decrease,hold,False,True,32581.3143,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post +for free + (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T00:36:56.227000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Santos, Presidente, .. , herring, .., N ..., 9gag (or i) - all points to +husky +- ??",hold,hold,True,True,6.635,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:10:17.068000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"name your favourite charity and an amount of real world money that would persuade you to resolve YES. +You could use thi",increase,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:18:53.461000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Lol, why are you so angry. Simmer down son. +I was pointing out that fraud was likely a running theme probably not a one",decrease,increase,False,True,591.1779,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-21T19:22:14.010000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I've laid down some (small) YES limits from 16 to 12, if anyone wants to fill them.",flip,hold,False,True,1923.4859,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T02:05:49.598000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,12/15/25 LMBRV (prob already tried but not on the eliza list?),increase,hold,False,True,1332.9812,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:40:13.783000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,and yet you sold your yes shares 🤔,flip,decrease,False,True,578.0375,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:15:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The coast of Portugal, linguistics, and 9gag. What on earth could this be...",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T00:47:47.744000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I don't see the incentives for that to matter? My goal is for him to imagine the hungry kids who quite literally would g,increase,hold,False,True,225.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-20T20:36:29.834000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"The new o3 model announced today seems extremely likely to be able to solve these problems given its benchmark results, ",hold,decrease,False,True,2150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-01T19:09:30.022000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Finally have enough Mana now. I currently have 1300 $M at 30%. If you want more, let me know",hold,increase,False,True,3479.6372,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:37:56.903000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,I join the offer. If the market resolves NO I will sent half my profits to,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False,True,7.3074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T05:00:45.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Now, we need to modify the subroutine to work after the first time, otherwise it will return the same element each time.",hold,hold,True,True,466.4627,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:21:39.840000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"too late too little, you have to resolve YES now :/",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T10:53:29.928000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,My pointing out of the problem doesn't change the fact it exists wut.,hold,hold,True,True,1500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-02-21T22:01:38.060000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Who could have known that ""circling"" should be approached with a large doses of caution if approached at all?",hold,decrease,False,True,2222.921,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T04:40:36.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok, this might take a while to type out, ill start with high level and go into more detail (maybe i should not be typing",increase,increase,True,True,391.4627,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:24.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,also where is this limit order,flip,decrease,False,True,472.9726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T23:45:50.780000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Somebody needs to find the link between the coastal theme and the phonology theme,decrease,hold,False,True,5925.3259,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-18T22:58:50.251000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","There are a bunch of outstanding questions about the resolution criteria in the comments IIRC, and I don't think they're",decrease,decrease,True,True,664.0413,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",flip,flip,True,True,919.1589,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T21:49:00.537000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"OK, how about I promise to coordinate a game of hide-and-seek in the sprawling labrinthine mansion of LightHaven if you ",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:54:21.841000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",But under what circumstances would he have had to explain any such things before FTX's balance sheet was leaked in Novem,decrease,decrease,True,True,1241.628,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T18:44:33.863000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"If you are interested in solving it yourself, I recommend not reading the comments and not looking at any of the other m",increase,hold,False,True,2241.3248,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T14:26:16.614000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think an important note is that it's possible that he should have had some public concerns raised by leadership, but t",increase,decrease,False,True,1510.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T16:45:03.642000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/55804774/Sokolowski_v_Wells_Fargo_Bank,_NA +A link to the federal docket. Answe",decrease,decrease,True,True,3819.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:10:56.924000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What's your plan? You want to accumulate infinite Yes shares while also blocking the release of more clues? I would have,flip,decrease,False,True,2405.1062,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T15:15:39.849000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Sure. There was just a sealed document with 35 exhibits filed by the SEC against Binance. There's no possible way that,increase,increase,True,True,85.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T19:44:18.239000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I can't figure out the cube and am out of other ideas,decrease,decrease,True,True,134.929,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:29:13.093000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I think the percentages in the description imply he plans to give as many as 500 hints and still not have it solved. By ,flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T23:00:22.455000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,would you accept a randomized subexponential algorithm as proof that a strategy exists?,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:45:46.439000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,he checks and hearts stuff many times per day but only one of those times is the hint time. The pattern has been going o,decrease,hold,False,True,8638.7072,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T21:00:28.459000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Thank you for the clarification!,increase,hold,False,True,2241.3248,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:21:35.097000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Messi could make several thousand profit just by holding 4999 no shares and resolving no, thats way more than that bribe",flip,increase,False,True,426.8103,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T15:10:14.578000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"It's still consistently wrong for me when I try to adjust the prompt in that way, though I see how asking it to count at",decrease,decrease,True,True,271.153,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T18:56:51.299000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Case removed to federal court? This is a NO all day long and twice on Sunday.,hold,increase,False,True,3650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T02:07:19.075000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"https://chatgpt.com/share/67525af0-1a78-8012-917e-003467389d96 + of one +And this is another, I think correct but inter",hold,increase,False,True,10134.5965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T15:04:22.363000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I was the person who requested the 30 day deadline, and thank goodness I did. Because your claim that you had WF dead t",hold,decrease,False,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-23T19:10:39.582000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"llama-3.1-405b-instruct (Try it here: +https://chat.tune.app/ +) +To determine the minimum and maximum number of line i",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:29:48.830000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,what makes you believe this is a period,hold,hold,True,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:10:29.483000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"in fact, wouldnt u make more money if u sell a little bit at the very end?",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T02:14:20.003000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),More analogous is if every 3 per group of 5 bits was unreliable. Which I think would be untenable in the last puzzle. Ev,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-14T01:00:00.337000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Indeed it did(n't). I bet the opposite way on the actual markets at the time, and argued ferociously later that he would",hold,hold,True,True,1800.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:11:03.748000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm gonna donate all my net profit from this market if you resolve Yes. We can discuss how.,decrease,increase,False,True,81.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T12:14:09.039000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I agree they wouldn't have concluded that, but they don't need to have known about the specifics of recent revelations f",hold,increase,False,True,508.7276,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",increase,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T23:25:00.451000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but not +too + heavily, or you'll make yes come true",hold,decrease,False,True,58348.9294,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-31T05:20:51.683000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Impressive stuff! But I think it's still wanting a natural language UI, right?",hold,hold,True,True,76.0539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T03:02:30.062000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"whaddya mean, surely everyone has put together several good leads by now.",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T08:59:49.246000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"I am trapped in + until the 16th day hint comes out for over 1000 mana so I guess this is now ""Collaborate to lose Eliz",increase,decrease,False,True,27936.5655,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T14:02:15.334000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Confession time: I may have misread the problem a teeny tiny bit. (Or is this a bluff to squeeze more mana out of my sol,flip,decrease,False,True,25757.5376,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-25T19:24:57.516000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I thought the situation here that might trigger resolution yes was that someone in the Slack discussion got a serious be,hold,decrease,False,True,17940.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T02:34:18.159000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I'm not really interested in moralising what should or shouldn't have happened (I don't think people in that Slack neces,hold,decrease,False,True,1241.8714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:53:40.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"17/12/25: +C-XXX ( +The solution must consist of +five letters from the English alphabet + (the 26 standard letters A",increase,hold,False,True,15.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:56:09.807000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,What if this problem is provably in NP? Then would the market resolve NO because the answer is not known (assuming I can,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,hold,False,True,1884.3998,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:55.835000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"It's a good way to solve the puzzle, if we can get at least one hint day with no errors!",flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T17:09:16.457000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"the problem doesn't sound too hard, and I have some ideas myself that I want to work out tomorrow.",increase,decrease,False,True,1241.7914,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-05T03:30:05.330000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I bet some nerd is gonna solve it with the current clues,flip,increase,False,True,20.8,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T13:13:58.206000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Whatever. He was pretty successful at hiding the fraud. This suggests operational security.,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:35:53.138000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed, and also I don't think observing a lack of distinction between funds means you're observing other people's money",increase,increase,True,True,726.092,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T13:51:04.032000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it's a bad look in terms of strategy - we shouldn't have tied our name to SBF, but I think less a bad look in ge",hold,decrease,False,True,6836.3287,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,increase,False,True,27486.464,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:36:02.248000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Everyone says they won't, as a matter of course, but it's only words. 😉",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-10T03:07:46.848000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Good idea. To be extra paranoid, we should maybe not put them here on the public internet ahead of time. If anyone wants",decrease,hold,False,True,32845.8691,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-09T23:18:29.681000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I’m curious why the scope of the unethical behavior criterion precludes investor money. From digging through the numerou,hold,decrease,False,True,1309.8368,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-10T21:44:23.902000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"That's how long these cases take. I fully expect it will be 4-6 years until I get paid. +Kevin posts a lot of nonsense ",hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:27:44.948000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","These resolution criteria change the question. The question itself was very clear, all the extra qualifiers are unnecess",decrease,decrease,True,True,875.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T22:45:19.661000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,it’s approximately spending 3000 mana on no,flip,increase,False,True,140.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:56:19.851000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,And then O would be Ocean and L could be Land or Lagoon,decrease,hold,False,True,0.4634,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:29:25.889000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Large no holders like me and you are the only ones keeping this within range! All those traitorous Yes holders are block,flip,increase,False,True,3541.5889,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T01:54:35.917000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You can get paid off here, no need to make everyone victims in some kind of weird scheme.",increase,decrease,False,True,6275.9066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T07:33:29.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You said [O-MBRV] and now O replaced with L? That +is + something...",hold,decrease,False,True,326.9836,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",flip,flip,True,True,767.0988,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False,True,2501.5435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T12:29:55.220000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Floris's betting is too scary I'm taking the loss just on his trades alone,flip,decrease,False,True,396.9223,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T21:58:36.784000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Jim Cramer: ""If you have money with Binance, beat your fellow ""investors"" and get out as your assets are commingled... F",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-17T18:50:28.798000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +Did you know it’s National Day in Iceland? I didn’t until I stumbled into a parade this morning. Turns out that",hold,hold,True,True,13999.5298,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",hold,hold,True,True,4581.2297,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T01:20:39.071000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I was definitely reading it wrong.,increase,increase,True,True,3376.5184,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:56:41.275000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Not an EA, but someone had strong suspicions a month ago: +https://twitter.com/Ishanb22/status/1577699083808083969",increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:50:53.455000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Don't pin it! If I want to keep it updated I'll put it in a different place that could be linked to. I have no plans to ,decrease,hold,False,True,10336.4194,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:22:15.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),If everyone wants to give up I'm okay with not solving it I guess. It seems like there is no will to unlock hints and I ,increase,decrease,False,True,2499.4701,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-09-13T01:57:17.374000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,“collapse” prior to end of ‘23 still a huge longshot. lots of theta burning. Still new here and didn’t realize there’s,hold,decrease,False,True,335.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:11:14.700000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,The fish sauce angle is nice but I wasn't (yet) convinced by every single hint.,increase,decrease,False,True,11762.6925,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:29:20.293000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Yeah ig. Well, my bribe is only for holding 5k at close, rest is their strategy",increase,hold,False,True,21069.2087,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T19:25:11.265000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Gemini still thinks it's VOLVO 😂 +Explanation of the Hints: +Hint 1: Portugal + – A reference to the +Volvo Ocean Race",decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:01.686000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok might need to work out a few kinks first, hmm. I will post a guess by eod",flip,decrease,False,True,472.9726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T04:23:30.486000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i agree. This market should be a lot lower than it is, why aren't people buying more NO?",increase,flip,False,True,18551.0216,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:16:41.812000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"fair enough, i wouldnt announce myself selling a lil at the end either",hold,hold,True,True,81.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T18:01:30.924000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Super helpful. Thanks for sharing,hold,increase,False,True,10256.5135,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:38:39.583000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Wow, crazy timing! Good thing we didn't try that, we could have bought a lot of No shares and still gotten an error in o",flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:53:21.388000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Buying a little additional NO at current prices since the piece itself is subtitled ""Leaders of the social movement had ",hold,increase,False,True,2250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes +or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:55:26.407000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Anyone who has significant social status within the EA community or has the power to move large quantities of EA-allocat,increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T17:27:48.420000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I just noticed the Day 3 hint has one extra arrow connection. Things are getting more complex now. That makes a grand t,hold,decrease,False,True,1650.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T01:05:08.428000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Discussion / Collaboration: + +Search for previous guesses here +: +https://api.manifold.markets/v0/comments?contractI",decrease,hold,False,True,676.374,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T22:20:46.031000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Collusion, collaboration, or coincidence.",decrease,hold,False,True,2676.6136,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:00:25.645000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,while the market is at 95% that does not make a lot of sense?,decrease,decrease,True,True,598.0875,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:32:27.107000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ah, that clarification makes it sound like this would only resolve positively if they suspect that FTX was dipping into ",decrease,flip,False,True,11.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T07:58:51.012000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"To everyone buying NO, are you guys accumulating 5k shares to be safe from whether @Messi flips or not? Or what other re",increase,flip,False,True,12998.6022,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T09:11:32.049000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,the puzzle will be generated on 1 Jan 2026.. posible,hold,hold,True,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:22:34.143000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Yeah but thats more detectable / likely to get you in trouble probably?,hold,decrease,False,True,5075.0982,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:29:54.563000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"On second thought, let's let them cook another day.",flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:29:39.194000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a limit order up at 73% YES, do you want it?",increase,hold,False,True,1213.9562,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T03:03:35.557000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I'm going to try to attack this puzzle alone. If you want to conscript me, you've got to show me why that is the dominan",decrease,hold,False,True,1.6151,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T18:59:04.451000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),you kept the market above 59 for two days and now you’re buying No?,flip,decrease,False,True,647.7873,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T07:05:25.956000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think we would derive a huge benefit from one error-free hint OR one hint with the meta hint attached. It would not le,decrease,decrease,True,True,1650.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:35:31.915000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's one of, I think, similar difficulty that it seems to be consistently failing on: +1. Draw a rectangle twice as wi",decrease,decrease,True,True,32031.3143,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c6a43e9b81837ee49f0ad67600f49dbd65352e81 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,195 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T21:00:28.459000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Thank you for the clarification!,increase,hold,False,True,2241.3248,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T23:50:12.788000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Is there a secret cabal collaboration location? I have an idea about some of the hints (possibly already obvious to othe,decrease,decrease,True,True,39.6384,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:13:33.272000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I guess that was my initial reaction as well, and then I talked myself out of it, worrying it would bias things towards ",decrease,decrease,True,True,31231.9606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T07:28:52.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"That's a big hint, he hasn't made all of it!",increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T20:09:56.425000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,At this point I think looking for a semantic link between these clues is a wild goose chase. There has to be something s,hold,increase,False,True,5868.2685,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,flip,True,True,76.996,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T15:58:09.639000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Ben didn't like my guess. I must've got it right. (jk),decrease,hold,False,True,1940.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:52:02.188000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"There should be a rule that if you feel confident about an answer, you trade on it in a derivative market first -- that ",decrease,hold,False,True,5922.8747,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T21:04:47.445000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Sir, there is nothing classic about this ""strategy""; there is a real alien bomb placed in the core of the Earth - they'v",decrease,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-29T01:50:57.602000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Do you commit to not make any trades after knowing if somebody has submitted a correct guess? (In other words, are the N",decrease,decrease,True,True,162.7568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T21:16:54.910000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Manifold doesn't have a dictatorship. We have community guidelines. As long as you follow them, there's no issue. +The t",hold,hold,True,True,5074.5981,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T05:08:35.340000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),So far we have had loads of 2 error days and 1 error days and I have pretty high confidence on the decodes for 4 out of ,flip,hold,False,True,1172.482,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T02:16:25.837000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Ok, let's try Monday and ""Hapax"" legomenon = a symbol, word, or sequence that appears only once in a text",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:01.686000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok might need to work out a few kinks first, hmm. I will post a guess by eod",flip,decrease,False,True,472.9726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:40:13.783000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,and yet you sold your yes shares 🤔,flip,decrease,False,True,578.0375,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T12:50:40.348000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,are we allowed to leave a list of guesses for others to try in a comment?,increase,hold,False,True,411.7682,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-20T20:36:29.834000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"The new o3 model announced today seems extremely likely to be able to solve these problems given its benchmark results, ",hold,decrease,False,True,2150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:24:26.648000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","this is a huge update, because Tara Mac Aulay was COO, then CEO of CEA, around the exact same time. +https://uk.linkedi",decrease,increase,False,True,403.9043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:34:39.906000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,The downvote tells me Steven is blaming the messenger.,hold,hold,True,True,2134.4637,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:23:49.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"alpha gets used twice in (2), your argument seems to be that one of these alphas is useless, but the other one could sti",flip,decrease,False,True,7.3074,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:21:21.546000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I understand that but I think + is correct that 59 is not a good equilibrium point +if we want to solve it.",flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:00:50.217000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"yeah i feel lied to as well, please resolve yes so that our time it took to invest is not in vain",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,hold,False,True,1884.3998,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:16:26.184000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"What will you do after that, share more info on your reasoning or continue to buy Yes shares?",flip,hold,False,True,2405.1062,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T02:51:48.541000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Getting ahead of things a little here, but a new side market:",increase,hold,False,True,4364.4086,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:11:38.709000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"this is interesting. Since the clues are so scattered semantically, it does make sense that there's something in the syn",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,increase,increase,True,True,375.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:37:31.165000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"edit: +year of kindness, ignore",increase,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T04:42:17.408000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"For everyone betting NO, wouldn't it make sense to at least offer a small settlement rather than have all the expense of",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:02:15.323000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I'd propose spinning off a new market for the interpretation that you didn't have in mind at the time of question creati,hold,hold,True,True,23151.9362,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,decrease,decrease,True,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:59:27.890000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Wait, what if it's not a self contained market, but is instead inclusive of all AI clarifications on other markets? +I'",decrease,decrease,True,True,61.7568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T16:28:37.958000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,The market really seems to be settling at 3:1 odds so I'll set that price and will take any size.,hold,hold,True,True,2154.6372,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-09T22:35:44.658000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Hm, I'm not sure why specifying whether people can reword the prompt would increase the likelihood of LLMs training on t",flip,hold,False,True,229.0267,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T03:47:46.663000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"A 'group' is just a place to siphon off your harebrained ideas to prevent polluting the public sphere with side tracks, ",decrease,decrease,True,True,5922.8747,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:33:26.191000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"After today's hint if we get just 10 hints, then we'll almost surely know the 4th letter and there are (probably) only a",increase,decrease,False,True,2497.6991,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T07:41:16.644000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I had the same thought and nearly made a similar comment, but I also noticed he didn't even heart recent guesses so it m",increase,decrease,False,True,4485.4804,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T11:22:22.300000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I wouldn’t mind a side pot on whether you will be able to find a lawyer and if you can find one, how much of a retainer ",hold,decrease,False,True,3784.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T16:35:17.237000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"I agree that one error-free hint would be hugely beneficial long term to Yes holder. But I’m a No holder… +For that othe",decrease,decrease,True,True,709.4781,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:45:20.095000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I don't have a solution (yet), but it looks manageable at a glance",hold,decrease,False,True,645.8866,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False,True,7.3074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:35:45.567000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"it's asymmetric though, splitting the profit is not enough, since they have nothing to lose but you do",hold,decrease,False,True,598.0875,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-06T19:59:59.205000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"yeah well, I had a couple of good guesses in store that I wanted to try before the new batch.",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.3354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:51:13.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,mb long-mid back rounded vowel or low-mid back rounded vowel,decrease,hold,False,True,0.4634,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T12:24:23.686000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"And I guess to prevent some people from doing that, you should resolve YES in case they do.",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T21:33:21.665000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I was only following orders, sir.",flip,hold,False,True,154.5049,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T17:59:42.650000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"See this comment with information on how to get a basic comment search: +https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/will-bens-puz",hold,increase,False,True,7719.8343,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:28:24.655000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"but you never told us which org you wanted us to donate to :( +https://manifold.markets/bens/i-will-resolve-this-market",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T21:23:04.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,It has the right time though. It just has the wrong date.,flip,decrease,False,True,10161.695,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T19:05:49.121000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","1) yes, that is my claim; 2) it's been widely reported that despite having cofounders SBF ended up with all the initial ",decrease,increase,False,True,403.9043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T18:59:04.451000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),you kept the market above 59 for two days and now you’re buying No?,flip,decrease,False,True,647.7873,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T03:16:20.157000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Is there still a secret group working in the shadows? I want in,decrease,hold,False,True,8552.9027,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T15:38:31.034000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"it shouldn't be giving you a different model unless you select the ""Auto"" experimental feature.",increase,hold,False,True,3292.9622,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:29:25.889000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Large no holders like me and you are the only ones keeping this within range! All those traitorous Yes holders are block,flip,increase,False,True,3541.5889,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",increase,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T08:28:57.757000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We did it, two hints in a row!",increase,flip,False,True,49.4592,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-07T00:41:28.286000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"if only bi +nance.us + fell apart, it wouldn't really be spectacular enough to count as a collapse in the spirit of the ",hold,hold,True,True,600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T08:19:09.545000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""Cover up"" refers to knowing about the unethical behavior and chosing to keep that knowledge private. There doesn't have",hold,increase,False,True,508.7276,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:38:26.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We need AAAAR, AAAAS, AAAAT, AAAAU, AAAAV, AAAAW, AAAAX, AAAAY, AAAAZ to be guessed.",flip,decrease,False,True,141.1758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T09:09:18.116000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I had a guess for Saturday but it's Sunday now and I'm not wasting my guess so I guess I have to just skip it.,hold,decrease,False,True,178.3577,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-04-04T18:19:07.152000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","The top holders of NO positions are hardcore, prominent or otherwise notable EAs many of whom have received funding from",hold,decrease,False,True,1852.1838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:09:37.255000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,you guys are gonna end up bankrupting me,increase,decrease,False,True,21069.2087,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-02-21T22:00:26.804000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""And if you didn’t update even v v slightly towards pchizo rw conspiracies of: maybe they +are + running pedo rings out",hold,increase,False,True,2222.921,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T01:42:54.913000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I am a man of my word. You do not get any cat pictures,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T12:29:55.220000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Floris's betting is too scary I'm taking the loss just on his trades alone,flip,decrease,False,True,396.9223,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T23:51:38.064000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Why didn't you keep it a secret and make tons of mana. Whoever gets it deserves it,decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T01:35:50.238000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I feel like posting the list of everything already guessed was a total waste of time and energy.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:28:25.038000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,depending on the magnitude i might consider this lol,flip,decrease,False,True,448.8124,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T15:09:55.713000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I think >6% chance + sells down to 4,999 shares in order to get a bigger payday, especially since other NO holders woul",flip,decrease,False,True,248.9065,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T22:16:38.834000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,don't waste too many guesses when someone else already guessed the same thing on the same day,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:19:07.492000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I make absolutely no claims whatsoever as to any portion of the following text, anyone is free to use it for any purpose",flip,hold,False,True,781.0269,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:23:04.219000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",He had bragged about his unethical investing practices on Twitter. Repeatedly. When you say the Kelly criteria should be,decrease,increase,False,True,875.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T16:45:57.551000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This is not an action in assumpsit (contract), trespass (a tort), or brought by a government agency for fines. You are b",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T23:25:00.451000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but not +too + heavily, or you'll make yes come true",increase,decrease,False,True,58348.9294,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes +or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:33:39.340000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I'm not sure lots of companies have nearly as bad accounting!! (and the bad accounting IS ""unethical behavior related to",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T01:05:16.034000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"we need 3 more guesses +1st letter is N like nueva",increase,increase,True,True,209.7567,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:25:49.171000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),if you cancel your 36 orders before the hint comes out I will buy enough No to get it to 35 for an error free hint today,flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-29T01:53:46.550000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I don't think he has been, but there's nothing quite like the feeling of security of ink on paper.",decrease,hold,False,True,162.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T00:15:55.845000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"The first letters of hints remain exceptionally weird with so many M, T, and G and barely any E, W, A, etc. +Similarly t",increase,decrease,False,True,1884.3998,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:56:22.465000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,ok that is a good way to think about it.,hold,hold,True,True,598.0875,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T04:01:34.953000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),fair enough. I’ll leave it be for now.,decrease,hold,False,True,2950.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:58:03.174000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,why don’t you give us your guess by DM so we can inside trade? Do you want us to pay you too?,hold,decrease,False,True,680.7731,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T20:30:11.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I do also start to think that from an ethical effective altruism standpoint, it's hard to argue down 3500 to a charity f",hold,decrease,False,True,624.5802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:33:24.982000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,But will 10x the power lead to a qualitative difference? If you had instead said they were working on an AI that made fa,hold,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:20:41.420000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Closest I got is +Portugal. The Man",increase,hold,False,True,6067.8777,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:27:57.286000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Will💡(incandescent) finally make an appearance today????,increase,hold,False,True,4615.0118,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-16T22:24:14.155000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"This market opened briefly after news concerning [a mini-bank run]( +https://www.reuters.com/technology/binance-sees-wit",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T23:02:45.724000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Bots are not reliable sources!,flip,decrease,False,True,116.238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,decrease,True,True,798.3539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T00:19:49.177000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Are any members of SBF’s family (parents, his brother Gabe) considered EA leaders? They do seem to meet the liberal crit",hold,increase,False,True,2124.358,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-04-12T02:45:31.339000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Why don’t you buy a lot more YES then?,hold,decrease,False,True,2032.1838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:36:10.501000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),You're supposed to make your profit in the side markets. You can earn 1000s of risk free profit there by envisioning wha,increase,hold,False,True,2497.5043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-02-15T04:16:54.771000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Got any more limit orders for us?,hold,increase,False,True,2944.9443,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T21:21:30.498000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Number of guesses per day isn’t meaningful, because it won’t be solved by stabs in the dark. Being solved after clue 21 ",flip,decrease,False,True,251.6507,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T20:17:46.634000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I don't know what the top option means. For the second one, I think the coastal theme is consistent with all the non-IPA",hold,decrease,False,True,5868.2685,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:13:22.268000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"that's definitely a way to win $M4000. +After that, nobody will bet in their markets, for sure",hold,decrease,False,True,498.6383,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:47:37.291000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"that may be but if it is any improvement at all, I feel it needs to be given a go in order to resolve this accurately. W",increase,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:41:17.677000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"(It's much easier to control for points of stability because you just need to ensure 1, whereas for NO, you need to elim",hold,increase,False,True,60248.9294,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:50:46.343000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"observation 2: n choose n/2 is exponential, so you cant just use brute force to find which, if any, subsets of S of size",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T02:57:00.174000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,it was the secretary problem all along. He’s gotta refuse the first best offer.,hold,hold,True,True,14449.5298,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T14:26:16.614000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think an important note is that it's possible that he should have had some public concerns raised by leadership, but t",increase,decrease,False,True,1510.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T06:51:56.254000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),How do you convert each hint into a bit?,increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:38:39.583000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Wow, crazy timing! Good thing we didn't try that, we could have bought a lot of No shares and still gotten an error in o",flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:05:59.328000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Totally fair! TBH I didn’t know they existed. It’s interesting that far fewer people have traded on those, maybe optimis",decrease,hold,False,True,80.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:31:50.472000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it can be related to Morze code , or the can was made in China",increase,hold,False,True,15.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T00:18:49.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I believe I have some insights on this puzzle. Not enough to solve it yet though.,increase,hold,False,True,619.2578,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T02:18:22.342000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"also, the criteria says it only has to be right 50% of the time",increase,increase,True,True,7434.5965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T02:34:39.528000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","That was my impression. I’m honestly surprised they are not, as far as we know, under investigation.",hold,increase,False,True,2124.358,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T05:04:04.385000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"With 30 YES holders constantly adding more errors daily, and only one(!) or two guesses a day, the probability that we w",decrease,decrease,True,True,40.3035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:49:19.187000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,It's just really hard to find...,decrease,decrease,True,True,10336.4194,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T00:50:46.219000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Also we now know that it takes at least 6 minutes to prepare the hint.,decrease,hold,False,True,3704.1338,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T22:23:31.441000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"no, people are going to modulate the market price such that this is the chance we get enough hints before market close t",flip,increase,False,True,2975.361,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T00:50:01.994000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I agree with you. In fact I think you SHOULD post a picture of yourself, and dare him to generate the video",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:26:52.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"basically, I don't believe he would have made the puzzle in a way that we could ""just guess it"" with a handful of hints.",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T23:50:47.832000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I predicted the 4th letter of the binary thing lol,decrease,hold,False,True,489.3354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-17T00:28:26.427000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I don't. This updates me towards considering her less credible, since she had a motivation to play up how bad it was, ev",hold,decrease,False,True,45.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T19:47:48.191000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"There was also a connection to Ibero-American coasts last time, but that was a waste of time",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T12:58:56.818000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",No instrumental reason for SBF to tell anybody in the EA sphere what he was doing.,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I’m hoping we can get price under 40%. I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,decrease,False,True,74.3604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with + if he resolves no",hold,flip,False,True,735.3906,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T11:06:02.209000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I will join @Gen in their offer. I pledge 50% of my profits on this market to the primary partners of + +@Gen is respo",flip,hold,False,True,35.125,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T04:23:56.293000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"if anyone is being bribed to hold more than 5k NO shares, pls tell us how much they're offering you, we may be able to o",increase,hold,False,True,131.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:23:18.412000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,clearly the only way to solve this problem is by resolving YES as a deterrent for anyone trying to persuade in the oppos,flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T07:30:16.544000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Not quite sure what this is referencing. +Edit: Ah, I see, just looking at the first letters of words.",flip,hold,False,True,4615.0118,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T11:51:28.137000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Yes, settlements are recorded on dockets, even if the terms of the settlement are not. +And no, you were the person who ",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T23:07:50.922000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I did not need to use AI for this: a 9-iron is a type of golf club,decrease,hold,False,True,5922.8747,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:42:14.787000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I used o1-preview not o1-mini if that matters,hold,increase,False,True,8434.5965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T01:20:39.071000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I was definitely reading it wrong.,increase,increase,True,True,3376.5184,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:57.479000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Just let it stay over 80% for a couple hours while my subsidy drizzles in plz.,hold,decrease,False,True,5000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-26T08:18:43.742000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I think people are way over updating on FTX,increase,increase,True,True,585.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T15:39:18.389000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I concur that these cases aren't even nuisance value!,increase,increase,True,True,2620.0573,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T11:37:52.528000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,It's not actually clear to me at all. But I think we should assume the original question has been compromised and discus,decrease,decrease,True,True,34322.9085,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T11:48:52.215000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"well, just 1 person holding >=5k NO is needed to resolve to YES. Maybe everyone but 1 will pull the rug and still get re",increase,hold,False,True,39096.2087,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T19:17:03.940000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I asked in the moderator area and they said all the markets related to Ben's puzzle are unranked. I don't really know th,flip,decrease,False,True,4267.0623,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with + if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",increase,decrease,False,True,8641.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T14:08:45.957000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I did not see +any + significant progress that will score 1/7 on any of these ideas yet, why is + so confident with th",increase,decrease,False,True,1139.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:30:31.272000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I think the assumed resolution criteria was one of the two I mentioned. Many people may have been betting on the second ,hold,decrease,False,True,1500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-06T19:37:04.142000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Binance to suspend US bank transfers. +https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/02/06/crypto-exchange-binance-to-suspend-u",hold,increase,False,True,1545.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,increase,False,True,426.8103,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T15:02:04.097000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,This market does not contain any documents that are outside of the evidence that I otherwise would have presented.,hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:29:30.632000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll guess BALLS tomorrow to make sure we are fair.,decrease,hold,False,True,61.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:10:01.772000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,I might have a solution that I will post if my limit order is filled.,flip,hold,False,True,140.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T04:53:05.799000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),how many hints/bits when it is solved,increase,decrease,False,True,4359.4086,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-02T23:42:51.175000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"this is the sort of behavior I was alluding to in +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/binance-collapses-before-the-end-",hold,hold,True,True,181.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:39:04.601000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","do clarify if you think this falls under ""naivety/motivated reasoning"" rather than under ""reasonable person""",decrease,decrease,True,True,403.9043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T16:47:23.335000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"It was a guaranteed 5% right away, and this was a probably 5% in two weeks.",increase,hold,False,True,279.2884,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:45:46.439000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,he checks and hearts stuff many times per day but only one of those times is the hint time. The pattern has been going o,decrease,hold,False,True,8638.7072,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T17:26:38.791000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"very modern argument you’ll see is already co-authored by AI through autocomplete suggestions, generative edits, or chat",hold,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:58:35.049000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I mentioned that a million times (as did others) but didn’t try to organize anything because a) it’s a little cringe b) ,hold,decrease,False,True,14449.5298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T01:31:23.446000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"If you want the actual program idea, I think what we should do is: +- First, we manually list 3-4 possible picture inter",increase,increase,True,True,761.872,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T00:43:49.597000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","SBF’s parents have been mentioned in several interviews he did before the debacle, and they have been in the spotlight e",decrease,decrease,True,True,1711.7678,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:55:26.407000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Anyone who has significant social status within the EA community or has the power to move large quantities of EA-allocat,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:07:53.714000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,@traders - note this offer was not dismissed out of hand like everything else has been. hmmm...,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T22:45:21.130000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,…and it resolves to whether Manifold solves it in time or to the problem's answer?,flip,hold,False,True,1.9858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-21T19:22:14.010000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I've laid down some (small) YES limits from 16 to 12, if anyone wants to fill them.",flip,hold,False,True,1923.4859,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T22:23:19.430000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,I recall being told that this resolves no under the scenario where the market poster has an incorrect solution.,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..68cba25f671121a3d0ffbdae94b7380a3e84ed49 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,214 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T22:16:38.834000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,don't waste too many guesses when someone else already guessed the same thing on the same day,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",decrease,hold,False,True,351.9836,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:42:08.843000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"you have the power to consciously choose to not goof off, don't make the same life ruining mistakes I am, be better than",hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-31T07:10:10.276000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Assuming the requirement is ""every question in the set has to be solved at least 50% of the time"". Then obviously it's h",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-05T22:57:45.679000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this on o1 today and got 6 out of 10 on your question. It does interpret "" +What is the minimum and maximum numb",decrease,increase,False,True,10134.5965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:45:20.095000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I don't have a solution (yet), but it looks manageable at a glance",flip,decrease,False,True,645.8866,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T00:34:20.973000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",This market should have a heavy bias to NO because by betting NO one signals one’s own innocence for the low price of f,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:45:46.439000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,he checks and hearts stuff many times per day but only one of those times is the hint time. The pattern has been going o,decrease,hold,False,True,8638.7072,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:33:38.238000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,but the counterfactual 1k euros seems like a good deal for ben,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:54:21.841000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",But under what circumstances would he have had to explain any such things before FTX's balance sheet was leaked in Novem,decrease,decrease,True,True,1241.628,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T11:06:02.209000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I will join @Gen in their offer. I pledge 50% of my profits on this market to the primary partners of + +@Gen is respo",flip,hold,False,True,35.125,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T02:09:55.962000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Well, third time to analyze one of these things. +The ""float around 50%"" argument still seems to apply at a high level. ",increase,increase,True,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:13.001000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Why on earth would you want an error free hint?,flip,hold,False,True,414.5979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:31:00.176000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There's only one AI box escape method that I know actually works: convincing someone to enter into a BDSM relationship w,flip,flip,True,True,76.996,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-28T03:13:50.993000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"like this comment if you vow to never have sex with + if he resolves no",hold,flip,False,True,735.3906,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T18:43:39.969000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",This does not seem related to what I said.,hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-25T18:07:14.846000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I've edited it in to the market description just now. Thanks for the prompt!,decrease,hold,False,True,13564.6088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T00:50:46.219000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Also we now know that it takes at least 6 minutes to prepare the hint.,flip,hold,False,True,3704.1338,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T15:20:19.482000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I’ll add a lot more to show support for the TFC,increase,increase,True,True,2131.0191,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T01:56:54.607000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"The given strategy is nondeterministic, so it does not solve the problem.",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T20:32:57.903000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I precommit to eating twice as many chickens as Robin.,flip,hold,False,True,134.929,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:24:06.386000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),people could at least try to brute force it but we’re getting like five to ten guesses per day,flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,flip,decrease,False,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T23:04:07.361000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Would you like to tie my hands for a price and prevent me from buying YES or selling NO? That seems like a more concrete,hold,hold,True,True,56.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:21:10.551000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Make sure to check out some of the options over there!,increase,hold,False,True,3989.4167,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T15:47:33.155000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I agree now that there's a lot of ambiguity. I'll write a top-level comment.,hold,decrease,False,True,320.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T20:20:28.319000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,That's a great point. My original benchmark question originally generated all manner of confusion and consternation amon,decrease,decrease,True,True,32845.8691,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:33:25.219000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,though that could change if the market position were reversed,hold,decrease,False,True,190.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T13:54:40.990000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,", I'm assuming that if two people have over 5,000 NO shares then this market will resolve YES. +, is that right?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T14:03:16.673000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Oh, the IO thing is already solved! Just waiting for more hints. +https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/what-is-the-right-a",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T16:47:23.335000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"It was a guaranteed 5% right away, and this was a probably 5% in two weeks.",decrease,hold,False,True,279.2884,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",flip,hold,False,True,4581.2297,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T15:57:22.100000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"What false have I said about you? And, if you did sue me for making false statements, that case would get thrown out bec",increase,increase,True,True,3120.0573,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T01:00:00.226000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"you have ISHBIERRA, there should be another I in there.",increase,increase,True,True,3376.5184,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",increase,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:12:23.881000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",The FTX deposit account was literally Alameda's bank account. That is customers were depositing funds directly to Alamed,decrease,increase,False,True,491.1779,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T17:09:16.457000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"the problem doesn't sound too hard, and I have some ideas myself that I want to work out tomorrow.",flip,decrease,False,True,1241.7914,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:41:43.965000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""Looking"" how? Neither Will nor Tara had access to balance sheets. And just because someone is generally an unlawful oat",hold,increase,False,True,1800.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-15T16:45:18.137000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I'm glad all these clues have errors so no one will be able to solve the puzzle.,decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So +{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese? +{harbor, h",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: +https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",hold,decrease,False,True,1279.9304,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:38:39.583000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Wow, crazy timing! Good thing we didn't try that, we could have bought a lot of No shares and still gotten an error in o",flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:52:59.081000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, have some type of fun in the comments!",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:21:21.546000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I understand that but I think + is correct that 59 is not a good equilibrium point +if we want to solve it.",flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-24T12:21:03.939000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",even re-reading the New Yorker excerpts? I was thinking the opposite this morning,hold,flip,False,True,468.7276,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T14:59:23.515000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"The main idea is likely to only add one element of each found element of B to R at a time, so we eliminate as few possib",increase,hold,False,True,419.3523,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:10:43.806000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's a problem that was making me doubt whether it actually understands: +Draw an equilateral triangle pointing up. Ne",decrease,decrease,True,True,31781.3143,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:29:04.915000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If Ai Can't figure that out, are there any timetravellers or mind readers here?",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T13:05:49.437000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"English language for reference +The O/I thing seems +REALLY + relevant. Every single word has either an o or an i; what",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-19T22:54:45.577000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I did see that but it was not up to date when I checked it.,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T04:26:49.487000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),As soon as you hold those No shares you gotta suit up and play the part. Once you become a net Yes holder you can start ,flip,hold,False,True,3704.1338,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T07:30:16.544000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Not quite sure what this is referencing. +Edit: Ah, I see, just looking at the first letters of words.",flip,hold,False,True,4615.0118,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-20T19:15:45.864000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","> Yeah, well that's the crux. Just being known to some people somewhere is not good enough. It would have to be all the ",increase,increase,True,True,73.9925,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-26T16:22:43.537000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i will bring miacat back if you resolve yes,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:28:20.268000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""The ""unethical behavior"" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending ",hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:46:29.363000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"No, it wouldn't make sense. Paying on this kind of thing is encouraging more of it. This is just part of the cost of d",increase,increase,True,True,19.4637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes +or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T14:02:52.648000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Nice. I think he got the earning to give schtick from a MacAskill talk at MIT.,hold,hold,True,True,2124.358,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T02:16:25.837000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Ok, let's try Monday and ""Hapax"" legomenon = a symbol, word, or sequence that appears only once in a text",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-02T00:28:47.771000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"For posterity, here's my suite of alternate problems and the log of the results I got. Note that everything after Proble",hold,decrease,False,True,31510.6908,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-25T19:24:57.516000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I thought the situation here that might trigger resolution yes was that someone in the Slack discussion got a serious be,hold,decrease,False,True,17940.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:22:37.360000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Would you be able to say how you'll decide whether ""they had enough evidence to conclude there was fraud happening""? +I",increase,decrease,False,True,876.092,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post +for free + (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,increase,False,True,27486.464,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:59:34.170000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"we NO holders will be respectful and not abuse review, regardless of your decision",decrease,hold,False,True,8305.4964,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:15:05.554000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You don't think I would cut off three of my toes for 15 units of fake internet money? And here I was thinking you knew m,flip,flip,True,True,15.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:35:13.703000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",(tbh I wish you would write more thorough & rigorous definitions of market criteria in general),decrease,hold,False,True,14.782,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:36:38.778000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Uhh okay. I dont have an alt in this market. My main alt used to be + but i've not used that in a while. The top No hol",increase,hold,False,True,60248.9294,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T23:57:12.578000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,We probably should confirm though... it's at the time of close right?,increase,decrease,False,True,76.8838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:33:39.340000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I'm not sure lots of companies have nearly as bad accounting!! (and the bad accounting IS ""unethical behavior related to",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T21:56:07.847000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If this is at 49, that means people think that we still wouldn't get it even with 16 more hints!",flip,decrease,False,True,3631.2297,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T20:44:23.782000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,oh wait this is all about at close. NVM. Disregard.,increase,decrease,False,True,26969.2087,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T10:25:22.735000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Let's eliminate 1 and 2 as too skewed towards NO and YES, respectively. I'm actually not sure if any bettor would expect",decrease,decrease,True,True,31231.9606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False,True,295.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:55:59.603000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Period +Used when the symbol has a linguistic or grammatical role: +End of a sentence",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T05:15:31.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I mean, if Ben wants everyone to start answering with a vestigial 6th letter on each of their answers...",decrease,decrease,True,True,798.3539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:14:11.357000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Anyone else noticed every hint has I or O in it?,increase,hold,False,True,46.8628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T23:02:45.724000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Bots are not reliable sources!,flip,decrease,False,True,116.238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:41:39.036000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,That would explain a lot. But 9gag and 9lives are still out of place.,decrease,decrease,True,True,6314.3955,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:46:18.032000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"yes +Link + to an example chat, where GPT-4 Chat model solves it.",hold,increase,False,True,22401.9362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-07-14T17:57:03.363000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.wsj.com/articles/binance-lays-off-over-1-000-employees-d59ff6ad +The exercise, which is continuing, could re",hold,increase,False,True,69.0363,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:43:32.690000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I don't have GPT4. Do you mean nailed?,hold,decrease,False,True,1211.4803,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T00:01:49.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","self-sovereign money +…..offshore exchanges +……………………………..market-maker on own exchange +………………………………………high FDV/low f",increase,flip,False,True,91.6133,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T08:15:10.071000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We need a Metaculus metamarket.,hold,hold,True,True,1007.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:55:37.659000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I don’t think this can be resolved either way without testing the model with the highest likelihood of passing. +I thin",increase,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-05T00:14:31.841000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"si LK 5 🤣 +Lest you ask think I've gone mad.",increase,hold,False,True,2947.8207,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,flip,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-29T15:46:53.777000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: What did you picture when you made this market? What do you find beautiful and strange? +Ben, I’m going to set as",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:55:26.407000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Anyone who has significant social status within the EA community or has the power to move large quantities of EA-allocat,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T04:43:40.353000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2023-11-29/portuguese-vet-goes-viral/83754 +André Santos + from +Portugal + went v",hold,hold,True,True,53.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T16:45:57.551000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This is not an action in assumpsit (contract), trespass (a tort), or brought by a government agency for fines. You are b",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,hold,decrease,False,True,18456.112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:44:55.822000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"i think it means that the communication of the LLM and the adjacent systems is through natural language, making sure tha",hold,increase,False,True,22401.9362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Tldr; +Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""! +Cool bro. We should ha",hold,increase,False,True,945.4007,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T06:46:30.253000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"People kept buying the market really low (50%-60%) right at the start and I wanted my subsidy to move +p + as close to ",increase,hold,False,True,4359.4086,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T18:56:01.245000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I really don't think we will solve it, people should buy like 10,000 mana of No shares right now.",flip,increase,False,True,589.8429,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T09:16:27.296000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,it's ok if the LLM calls other systems as subroutines as long as it still works as purely natural language dialog,hold,increase,False,True,20981.5321,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-01-01T23:35:43.756000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Keep track of moving parts in the explanation. For example, when pressed on the FTX TOS, he always started talking about",hold,increase,False,True,28.9702,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:56:19.436000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it looks like it hasn’t been tried. Weird. +Note that ‘hamlet’ was not capitalized. The Shakespeare reference may be a ",increase,hold,False,True,680.7731,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:37:06.543000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"if there is any logic , LLM models might be able to solve it",flip,flip,True,True,13.9625,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T05:06:45.742000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Did you read the justification post? More than half of them were just hand-waving.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10284.2137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-23T18:44:33.863000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"If you are interested in solving it yourself, I recommend not reading the comments and not looking at any of the other m",increase,hold,False,True,2241.3248,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False,True,2501.5435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:42:40.668000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"even if you don't intend on repeating, it sets a precedent for future threats from others",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:55.835000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"It's a good way to solve the puzzle, if we can get at least one hint day with no errors!",flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T01:03:11.930000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"exactly, we all do the same probably",increase,hold,False,True,209.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T13:54:29.625000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given the high standard for this market, I agree that this is insufficient. But in real life, where standards are differ",increase,decrease,False,True,132.9797,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T00:02:33.851000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"A link to a hypothetical well-structured onramp, collaboration and discussion space",hold,hold,True,True,155.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T23:43:44.511000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),what should I add to the pinned comment? The guesses?,decrease,hold,False,True,1164.5083,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,decrease,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T11:40:11.938000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Just to be clear, my offer was that if the market resolves NO + will get half my profits. You don't have to do anything",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T19:38:45.040000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I don't know if I'm the best trader on the site. I am also most certainly not the richest, that would be the founders, p",hold,hold,True,True,59862.1179,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T15:53:57.174000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I'm curious about the following: I can't find any case law on whether discussions with LLMs would be discoverable or ad,hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T17:18:47.367000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Another coastal city... this doesn't help,decrease,decrease,True,True,5858.0321,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:38:26.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We need AAAAR, AAAAS, AAAAT, AAAAU, AAAAV, AAAAW, AAAAX, AAAAY, AAAAZ to be guessed.",flip,decrease,False,True,141.1758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:14:14.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Folks, it makes no sense to buy YES before he has given us today’s hints.",decrease,decrease,True,True,1879.4639,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:56:09.807000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,What if this problem is provably in NP? Then would the market resolve NO because the answer is not known (assuming I can,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:37:31.165000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"edit: +year of kindness, ignore",increase,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T21:51:58.562000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think this would be significantly easier if we had one clean hint with no errors.,flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-09T21:10:14.177000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"for what it's worth, I still find these criteria quite vague and would like and invest in this market more if you specif",flip,decrease,False,True,229.0267,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:10:56.924000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What's your plan? You want to accumulate infinite Yes shares while also blocking the release of more clues? I would have,flip,decrease,False,True,2405.1062,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T14:08:58.651000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"""Regulator’s lawsuit asks federal judge to freeze company’s assets"" +https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sues-crypto-exchan",increase,increase,True,True,22.141,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:35:38.978000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Main issue is I can't submit guesses because I can never figure out what day it is.,hold,decrease,False,True,1677.3368,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:58:02.428000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Surplus guesses for anyone’s taking at: +https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/will-bens-puzzle-be-solved-in-the-l#208lwsui1i",increase,hold,False,True,437.0176,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:23:49.238000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,what is your estimate of the probability that it would happen in the counterfactual that it was not resolved no? going f,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically. +Or loosing vast ",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T04:32:13.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"At the time I wrote that, the market was at like 57% or something and there were multiple thousands of limit order walls",increase,hold,False,True,2263.2867,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T05:47:08.778000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I have another one in the same series!,hold,hold,True,True,178.3577,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-10T06:15:27.891000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I banked mine a couple days ago and didn't get reprimanded.,increase,hold,False,True,2306.2562,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:53:40.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"17/12/25: +C-XXX ( +The solution must consist of +five letters from the English alphabet + (the 26 standard letters A",increase,hold,False,True,15.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:14:38.384000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Why do you think it has to be the person running the market who would do this. Anyone can do it.,decrease,hold,False,True,5075.0982,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T22:45:21.130000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,…and it resolves to whether Manifold solves it in time or to the problem's answer?,flip,hold,False,True,1.9858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:36:51.176000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"weird! I did that prompt and then also tried with numbering 1–4. In either case, I get 20-40 seconds of thought with con",increase,decrease,False,True,2792.9622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T13:44:01.537000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Thinking about this it’s clear they obviously knew so anything short of publicly exposing him as an unethical fraud is a,hold,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T16:47:39.317000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Betting no because he said in another thread he is using statistical models to judge legal documents for him.,hold,hold,True,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:28:53.996000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),You presume I want to solve the puzzle,flip,decrease,False,True,414.5979,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T09:01:00.228000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think your original post was actually pretty clear! +If you wanted to further clarify, you could say something like: """,hold,decrease,False,True,1165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:30:03.337000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Lionel Messi doesnt seem to understand that he can make a huge profit simply by threatening to not hold 5000 NO, and cac",flip,increase,False,True,426.8103,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:26:09.274000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,The algorithm only generates one query that tests 1/100n^2 of the possible Q. It can't cover all possible Q in a small n,increase,decrease,False,True,1213.9562,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/ + Coinba",hold,increase,False,True,271.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T22:03:02.808000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I'll get pro mode if necessary. The market description says it still counts if it costs money.,decrease,increase,False,True,31878.534,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T03:16:20.157000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Is there still a secret group working in the shadows? I want in,decrease,hold,False,True,8552.9027,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T01:13:47.765000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Or of they had incredibly poor epistemics/trust despite hearing/knowing bad or very bad stuff,decrease,decrease,True,True,180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T18:22:01.026000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I'm gonna take so much EA money on this one lmao,decrease,increase,False,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T04:42:25.281000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Resolve YES and this market has the potential to become a legendary meme on Manifold, a NO will simply be forgotten and ",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T21:31:48.524000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","relative to your market description, these points seem pretty tame. IMO 1, 3, and 5 would have been pretty clear to anyo",hold,decrease,False,True,73.9925,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:56:06.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Evidence of trollness, this robot has exactly 1 trick:",hold,decrease,False,True,11688.3788,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False,True,7.3074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-10T21:04:11.344000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Honestly, I will be sad when this market resolves. It's been a fun roller coaster. [Granted, that's becasue most of this",increase,hold,False,True,2470.0573,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:41:40.822000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"If you resolve this market YES, it means humans are performing well relative to AI. Since I presume you're a human, this",decrease,decrease,True,True,21.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:26:52.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"basically, I don't believe he would have made the puzzle in a way that we could ""just guess it"" with a handful of hints.",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T16:54:58.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I think cats have ""9 lives"", not ""9lives"", which is probably not a real thing.",decrease,decrease,True,True,11659.1888,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T07:05:25.956000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think we would derive a huge benefit from one error-free hint OR one hint with the meta hint attached. It would not le,decrease,decrease,True,True,1650.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..65a89c816163bad7678606e38acc9232af925c66 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,207 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post +for free + (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:44:38.740000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It might not be as strong as you think. +As the number of days dwindle, and the obscurity of the hints remains the same,",decrease,increase,False,True,2676.6136,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T16:16:35.859000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,aaaaaaaah. I didn’t catch that.,decrease,decrease,True,True,749.7999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T16:45:57.551000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This is not an action in assumpsit (contract), trespass (a tort), or brought by a government agency for fines. You are b",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:46:56.876000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,This offer stands until the end of the current league. Then I'll spend the money on weed and record a similar video.,increase,hold,False,True,175.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-25T21:02:50.197000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried grouping the hints by their semantic proximity but the current sample size is too small. There is possibility th,hold,decrease,False,True,15.8395,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-19T07:28:44.020000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"In Amy Johnson's 1930 solo flight from London to Darwin, she started on 5 May and finished on 24 May. During the trip sh",decrease,hold,False,True,3933.04,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:21:35.097000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Messi could make several thousand profit just by holding 4999 no shares and resolving no, thats way more than that bribe",decrease,increase,False,True,426.8103,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:42:39.113000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,What is the relevance? This gets nailed by LLMs (At least GPT-4) that are not ~3 years outdated (GPT-3.5) at this point.,hold,increase,False,True,22401.9362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I’m hoping we can get price under 40%. I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,decrease,False,True,74.3604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:44:37.906000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",note though that Isaac's criteria also clearly specify that it has to be the fraud/unethical investing practices current,decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T21:36:02.105000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"In all seriousness, Ben is cool, and I like the antics he gets up to.",decrease,hold,False,True,85.5049,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T11:46:07.425000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Mostly betting YES for entertainment purposes, although I suppose dumping mana on NO would be more likely to encourage o",increase,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:29:25.889000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Large no holders like me and you are the only ones keeping this within range! All those traitorous Yes holders are block,flip,increase,False,True,3541.5889,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T05:08:35.340000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),So far we have had loads of 2 error days and 1 error days and I have pretty high confidence on the decodes for 4 out of ,flip,hold,False,True,1172.482,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes +or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:17:51.896000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"this is exactly what I'm talking about, what's the point of this market if it's just going to be two sides arguing for d",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:15:48.472000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"There's no guarantee someone else won't buy the NO, and then I lose both sides. I will keep the control of my decision s",hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T23:50:47.832000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I predicted the 4th letter of the binary thing lol,decrease,hold,False,True,489.3354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T14:24:58.625000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","In your opinion, would that hypothetical resolve to yes?",hold,decrease,False,True,1717.2621,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:24.132000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,also where is this limit order,flip,decrease,False,True,472.9726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T19:20:53.142000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Since it's so subjective, maybe make it explicit that you're self-trading on the market.",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T21:21:30.498000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Number of guesses per day isn’t meaningful, because it won’t be solved by stabs in the dark. Being solved after clue 21 ",flip,decrease,False,True,251.6507,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:55:01.905000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,i'm not following this closely (& don't have a PACER account). what's the tl;dr of the update?,decrease,decrease,True,True,99.723,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:25:49.171000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),if you cancel your 36 orders before the hint comes out I will buy enough No to get it to 35 for an error free hint today,flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-04-17T00:31:38.387000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Max 5? I get to 8 by extending all three of the triangle's tips outside of the circle. I'm starting to think these geome,hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T17:43:19.485000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I have seen anecdotal reports that pro mode is not actually that much of an improvement,hold,decrease,False,True,2150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:22:25.735000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i bribed messi with a significant amount of profits I'll make to take this loss. It cost them i think 125 Mana, and I'll",increase,increase,True,True,8641.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:12:23.881000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",The FTX deposit account was literally Alameda's bank account. That is customers were depositing funds directly to Alamed,decrease,increase,False,True,491.1779,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:27:55.835000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"It's a good way to solve the puzzle, if we can get at least one hint day with no errors!",flip,hold,False,True,3541.5889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T01:03:11.930000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"exactly, we all do the same probably",hold,hold,True,True,209.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T05:43:16.912000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Y’all .. we need 30 hints to get one letter. We should be shooting for 20% every day until we at least know what it migh,increase,decrease,False,True,12.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:27:50.353000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It depends on what you mean by that. +Example: based on things like Tara's tweet + today's Money Stuff describing how in",decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:10:01.772000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,I might have a solution that I will post if my limit order is filled.,flip,hold,False,True,140.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:40:32.117000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"if you resolve yes now, rather than spending many hours reading and responding to everyone's persuasion attempts, the sa",increase,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:12:52.380000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve Yes I'll split the pnl with you,increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-12T02:45:56.670000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"He did that, the part under the AI line has been manually edited now.",hold,hold,True,True,178.3577,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:39:18.549000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I thought the random time was when you checked. +I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a",increase,hold,False,True,337.0176,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:53:40.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"17/12/25: +C-XXX ( +The solution must consist of +five letters from the English alphabet + (the 26 standard letters A",increase,hold,False,True,15.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T23:15:04.306000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I'm not sure anything here actually fits the definition. Some considerations: +1) Seems like the person sharing in the S",hold,decrease,False,True,10820.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:15:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The coast of Portugal, linguistics, and 9gag. What on earth could this be...",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:35:31.915000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here's one of, I think, similar difficulty that it seems to be consistently failing on: +1. Draw a rectangle twice as wi",decrease,decrease,True,True,32031.3143,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T03:07:59.937000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,5000 mana at 50% is a huge wall,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T11:59:43.521000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Sure enough! As for my conflict of interest, yes, if we don't reach consensus in the comments I'll have to recuse myself",decrease,decrease,True,True,34322.9085,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-01T18:16:07.790000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,and he wasn't so lost in the other cases??,hold,decrease,False,True,1713.154,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T23:29:04.934000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),good point … just hoping an error free hint will unlock correcting the other errors,decrease,decrease,True,True,40.3035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:26:52.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"basically, I don't believe he would have made the puzzle in a way that we could ""just guess it"" with a handful of hints.",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T00:01:04.895000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Thanks! I agree these are of similar difficulty (though I think the first one should clarify that the triangle and squar,decrease,hold,False,True,32581.3143,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:32:28.201000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It's legal to make irrational bets! It's not even unethical, just foolish. It's not legal or ethical to make any kind of",hold,decrease,False,True,2250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T20:29:02.646000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Again, doesn’t need to be a crime to be unethical. Completely different.",decrease,hold,False,True,875.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:35:53.138000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed, and also I don't think observing a lack of distinction between funds means you're observing other people's money",increase,increase,True,True,726.092,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:29:13.093000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I think the percentages in the description imply he plans to give as many as 500 hints and still not have it solved. By ,flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:07:07.142000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,You dismissing the case because the writing was on the wall is not a good faith resolution here. You withdrew the case b,decrease,increase,False,True,3819.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T18:56:01.245000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I really don't think we will solve it, people should buy like 10,000 mana of No shares right now.",flip,increase,False,True,589.8429,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T05:13:01.962000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I punched some of the hints into a search engine and it told me that ""Setúbal"" is a city of ~100,000 people in Portugal,",increase,decrease,False,True,199.4592,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",flip,flip,True,True,767.0988,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T05:08:09.898000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I don't see how I have anything on the line for accepting and barely putting in an effort.,hold,decrease,False,True,56.7568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T21:51:58.562000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I think this would be significantly easier if we had one clean hint with no errors.,hold,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:37:34.659000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,currently? I'd make 1600 profit if it resolved rn. But i expect it to keep increasing over the next 2 weeks until resolu,increase,increase,True,True,20079.2087,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False,True,295.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:28:25.038000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,depending on the magnitude i might consider this lol,flip,decrease,False,True,448.8124,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:01:41.603000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"the current market probability is p, then price of a share is p mana. If probability is 0.7, or 70% then the price of a ",hold,hold,True,True,58448.9294,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T01:44:21.012000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"you only get one guess not two, and also your account has been suspected of being operated by the same person who operat",hold,decrease,False,True,5922.8747,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:38:38.396000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve this yes I will record a video of me bringing a load of supplies to the local orphanage here in Vietnam. ,increase,flip,False,True,125.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-02T02:04:00.336000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,TL;DR: Resolving NO means you side with Roko’s Basilisk. Resolving YES means you believe in normal human things like fun,hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T20:15:01.621000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Go bet in the other market please,decrease,flip,False,True,5922.8747,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:10:56.924000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What's your plan? You want to accumulate infinite Yes shares while also blocking the release of more clues? I would have,flip,decrease,False,True,2405.1062,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T21:23:04.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,It has the right time though. It just has the wrong date.,flip,decrease,False,True,10161.695,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T08:00:30.708000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If we don't guess stuff, we'll never beat it. Everyone should be using all their good guesses every day. That's some goo",increase,increase,True,True,10623.9806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:42:54.125000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"To me, protocol 3 feels most in the spirit of the question, as it rewards consistently getting questions right and punis",decrease,hold,False,True,2150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",increase,decrease,False,True,1700.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:02:36.787000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,@jatloe Does this writeup justify the O(n^3) loops or do I have to reference Nate's solution for that?,decrease,decrease,True,True,255.3792,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T17:58:44.829000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"I'm also a No holder so my current strategy is to try to convince everyone that we will obviously solve this, so I can b",decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So +{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese? +{harbor, h",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:10:29.483000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"in fact, wouldnt u make more money if u sell a little bit at the very end?",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T03:59:58.278000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),is trying to get you all to vote no because she has already figured out threte puzzle and wants to profit. Vote yes vote,decrease,decrease,True,True,2151.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T23:02:45.724000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Bots are not reliable sources!,flip,decrease,False,True,116.238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:23:18.412000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,clearly the only way to solve this problem is by resolving YES as a deterrent for anyone trying to persuade in the oppos,flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",flip,flip,True,True,919.1589,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:11:38.709000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"this is interesting. Since the clues are so scattered semantically, it does make sense that there's something in the syn",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:40:13.783000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,and yet you sold your yes shares 🤔,flip,decrease,False,True,578.0375,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:39:37.509000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Sorry for quoting you without the added context! (and also for how long it took for me to respond — was very much not in,increase,hold,False,True,876.092,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-29T01:50:57.602000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Do you commit to not make any trades after knowing if somebody has submitted a correct guess? (In other words, are the N",decrease,decrease,True,True,162.7568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-15T00:29:29.726000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Following up on below, Paxos has also been served a letter from the SEC indicating that they consider BUSD to be an unli",hold,increase,False,True,201.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T01:20:51.276000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Oh snap. I’m back from dinner and we got another 500. You know what would be a real solid class act? if YOU donated the ,hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:29:19.423000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,how much would I have to make?,increase,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T14:13:19.288000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Why don't we judge by our relative confidence levels. Who has invested more mana in this market, you or me? Even thoug",hold,increase,False,True,2249.4637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T09:55:25.076000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i mean by original bribe was to hold >5k shares... I can buy 1 share rn and we will both have >=5k shares. +Market will ",hold,flip,False,True,138.1332,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-21T19:29:54.563000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"On second thought, let's let them cook another day.",flip,decrease,False,True,3541.5889,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:05:37.457000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",It's certainly a place for me to make free EV betting no at >25%.,increase,hold,False,True,1200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-29T01:53:46.550000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I don't think he has been, but there's nothing quite like the feeling of security of ink on paper.",decrease,hold,False,True,162.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T15:18:06.812000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,One area of specification would be what sort of accuracy rate the model needs to have on these questions. It seems you'v,increase,decrease,False,True,4842.9622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T00:01:49.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","self-sovereign money +…..offshore exchanges +……………………………..market-maker on own exchange +………………………………………high FDV/low f",increase,flip,False,True,91.6133,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T18:35:25.536000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,I bought them back. Lol. this is fun,hold,increase,False,True,139.9129,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:19:39.506000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,do you want me to drive the market to a certain probability? Rn i can take it to 0 or 87 or 89 or whatever. I'm just pla,hold,hold,True,True,59448.9294,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T23:37:07.833000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"That is less fun because the best part about your character is giving you free rein! I want to untie your hands, not tie",hold,hold,True,True,1750.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T19:02:59.577000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),nga I'm high wdym from 11million to 10000000000000000million,hold,hold,True,True,958.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-08-14T21:07:50.397000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,My current opinion is that this is probably doable in principle but that it's not going to make it into an available sys,hold,hold,True,True,16264.6088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T03:22:26.510000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We should have a separate discussion area since the comment section here will be totally overrun with hundreds of guesse,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:46:29.363000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"No, it wouldn't make sense. Paying on this kind of thing is encouraging more of it. This is just part of the cost of d",increase,increase,True,True,19.4637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:24:06.386000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),people could at least try to brute force it but we’re getting like five to ten guesses per day,flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-20T01:10:12.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",""" +Effective Altruism group debated Sam Bankman-Fried’s ethics in 2018"" +https://www.semafor.com/article/11/18/2022/eff",hold,increase,False,True,715.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-21T19:22:14.010000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I've laid down some (small) YES limits from 16 to 12, if anyone wants to fill them.",flip,hold,False,True,1923.4859,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T19:17:08.664000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it is reasonably likely that EA leaders expressed general doubts about SBF doing some sort of fraud, that are no",decrease,decrease,True,True,23.238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T03:56:01.738000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Who cares what kind of shares you own, it's about solving the puzzle.",increase,hold,False,True,249.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T22:45:21.130000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,…and it resolves to whether Manifold solves it in time or to the problem's answer?,flip,hold,False,True,1.9858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T01:33:09.526000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Wait what? Why did you suddenly buy it up to 75?!?!,increase,decrease,False,True,761.872,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-22T16:10:11.151000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,i don't think it will go this low anytime soon :(,increase,decrease,False,True,287.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T12:09:02.697000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,sometimes true. Usually not true.,increase,hold,False,True,2620.0573,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:36:05.384000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Here are two other questions of similar difficulty: +> Draw a square in a plane. Now draw an equilateral triangle in the",increase,decrease,False,True,347.3591,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:01.686000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok might need to work out a few kinks first, hmm. I will post a guess by eod",flip,decrease,False,True,472.9726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",hold,decrease,False,True,190.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T19:47:48.191000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"There was also a connection to Ibero-American coasts last time, but that was a waste of time",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T13:41:05.191000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Do you think anything in this resolves it Yes? +I think if this is all we find out I expect it to resolve no",decrease,decrease,True,True,6836.3287,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T12:08:42.172000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I will sell to less than 5k NO if +, + and + change their avatar to a picture of a cat and keept it that way until ma",hold,hold,True,True,598.7787,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,hold,decrease,False,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,decrease,decrease,True,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-10-24T04:38:39.870000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I heard Claude 3.5 Sonnet got smarter the other day so I tried this again. It was as wrong as ever. Well, after a few tr",decrease,decrease,True,True,33486.464,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T22:20:45.846000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Alright so just to be clear, we've got: +Exactly 1 solid lead +195 data points +No other reasonable paths +No ideas what",flip,decrease,False,True,2434.6096,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:21:21.546000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I understand that but I think + is correct that 59 is not a good equilibrium point +if we want to solve it.",flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:40:40.311000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It's not a huge update but it does provide more background and ties together a few disjointed pieces. IMO, if that's all",decrease,increase,False,True,142.9797,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T01:22:00.832000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"As time has gone on, I've started trusting my original analysis more. +https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-solv",increase,increase,True,True,761.872,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T01:13:47.765000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Or of they had incredibly poor epistemics/trust despite hearing/knowing bad or very bad stuff,hold,decrease,False,True,180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-05T03:30:05.330000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I bet some nerd is gonna solve it with the current clues,flip,increase,False,True,20.8,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False,True,7.3074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:56:06.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Evidence of trollness, this robot has exactly 1 trick:",increase,decrease,False,True,11688.3788,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:16:26.184000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"What will you do after that, share more info on your reasoning or continue to buy Yes shares?",flip,hold,False,True,2405.1062,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-19T16:27:13.364000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +Did you know that the sun sets here at 12:03 am and rises at 2:55 am? But even though we’re below the arctic c",hold,hold,True,True,14449.5298,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:11:09.546000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"50/50 is not reasonable, I know that. My 50 on NO (no lawyer files a case for MC in 60 days) to your 30 on YES (MC does",hold,hold,True,True,2249.4637,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T23:32:09.981000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"This is why I originally asked Ben to put the guesses in a separate place, so collaboration would be right in the main m",increase,decrease,False,True,2406.5672,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:14:11.357000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Anyone else noticed every hint has I or O in it?,increase,hold,False,True,46.8628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T15:38:31.034000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"it shouldn't be giving you a different model unless you select the ""Auto"" experimental feature.",increase,hold,False,True,3292.9622,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:31:11.740000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ah, she who is quoted in recent time article - presumably knew it was coming out and bought a ton of yes on the 8th (3rd",decrease,increase,False,True,2623.9703,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T14:30:39.552000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +Did you know I ran a midnight half marathon last night. I’ve done tons of marathons and half-marathons, but it ",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:14:46.982000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"That was pointed out very explicitly by + +just a bit below. + Edit: On the other market.",increase,hold,False,True,3989.4167,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T14:59:23.515000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"The main idea is likely to only add one element of each found element of B to R at a time, so we eliminate as few possib",increase,hold,False,True,419.3523,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:46:07.559000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"""Please do not threaten violence or any other crimes upon me but apart from that go crazy; I am open to many forms of pe",decrease,flip,False,True,47.2131,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T17:18:47.367000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Another coastal city... this doesn't help,flip,decrease,False,True,5858.0321,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-22T14:35:23.024000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,reposting for visibility - great question,increase,hold,False,True,187.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False,True,2501.5435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-03T21:40:42.259000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If the value of the market is below 50%, I will give a single hint, which I will compile in the description over time. I",hold,hold,True,True,103.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T21:09:49.149000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,(1) Statements you make about the case are discoverable; (2) You do not have attorney-client privilege with your compute,hold,decrease,False,True,2249.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:24:36.521000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I came from the future to say this will resolve YES,increase,increase,True,True,205.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T23:25:00.451000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but not +too + heavily, or you'll make yes come true",hold,decrease,False,True,58348.9294,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:23:49.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"alpha gets used twice in (2), your argument seems to be that one of these alphas is useless, but the other one could sti",flip,decrease,False,True,7.3074,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:43:35.519000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Which charities might be at the top of the list?,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-22T05:10:33.457000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"if anyone can solve it, it’s you 🍀",decrease,increase,False,True,40.3035,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-18T08:12:51.829000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Imagine being a Yes holder when you open the mail and see you got 3 arrow hints and 2 of them are errors. May as well ju,decrease,decrease,True,True,4039.4787,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T16:35:17.237000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"I agree that one error-free hint would be hugely beneficial long term to Yes holder. But I’m a No holder… +For that othe",decrease,decrease,True,True,709.4781,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T21:22:06.295000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,an oddity of when you placed the order I think,hold,hold,True,True,3107.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:56:19.436000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it looks like it hasn’t been tried. Weird. +Note that ‘hamlet’ was not capitalized. The Shakespeare reference may be a ",hold,hold,True,True,680.7731,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-23T19:10:39.582000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"llama-3.1-405b-instruct (Try it here: +https://chat.tune.app/ +) +To determine the minimum and maximum number of line i",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T23:00:22.455000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,would you accept a randomized subexponential algorithm as proof that a strategy exists?,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:13:41.841000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Good news! God told me that you must resolve this YES. (He also told me that I must marry your wife. I didn't want to bu,flip,hold,False,True,660.3906,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:45:07.158000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I could have easily not seen your comments and not known about the change. I don't know if there will be other changes i,decrease,decrease,True,True,14.782,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T00:41:47.553000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Can you share the transcripts in a pastebin for those of us without o1 access? I think you are allowed to rephrase the p,increase,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:40:33.583000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Update: ChatGPT o1 and o1 pro are now mostly failing for me on the original problem! The variance we've seen here is a l,decrease,decrease,True,True,31981.9606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:35:38.978000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Main issue is I can't submit guesses because I can never figure out what day it is.,hold,decrease,False,True,1677.3368,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:15:05.554000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You don't think I would cut off three of my toes for 15 units of fake internet money? And here I was thinking you knew m,decrease,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..77f9d27d8b11a787ab970ac97bf24841432e7c9b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,228 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T04:26:49.487000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),As soon as you hold those No shares you gotta suit up and play the part. Once you become a net Yes holder you can start ,flip,hold,False,True,3704.1338,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-25T01:33:09.526000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),Wait what? Why did you suddenly buy it up to 75?!?!,increase,decrease,False,True,761.872,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T06:32:11.087000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"oh i understand. But why would I not hold 5k shares of NO, when the only offer I've gotten is to hold 5k shares of NO",increase,hold,False,True,139.9129,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T01:12:54.933000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If it wasn't ""cover up"" but ""Look the other way"". +How would you resolve?",decrease,decrease,True,True,180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T04:17:32.117000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Prove your +loyalty +, Ben. Say it's the answer.",decrease,hold,False,True,909.9764,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T01:35:50.238000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I feel like posting the list of everything already guessed was a total waste of time and energy.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T15:56:41.275000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Not an EA, but someone had strong suspicions a month ago: +https://twitter.com/Ishanb22/status/1577699083808083969",decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T18:16:10.522000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"No, I didn't state that. You should read my statements very carefully and look at their precise phrasing.",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T00:57:53.363000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Alright team, I got all your names here so we know who we are. I've given a lot of you loads of No shares at reasonable",flip,increase,False,True,3704.1338,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:39:18.549000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I thought the random time was when you checked. +I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a",increase,hold,False,True,337.0176,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T17:55:39.752000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I think that was already guessed a couple weeks ago but you could try the Roman name for it as an island, Acala: +https:",hold,hold,True,True,7719.8343,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:14:46.982000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"That was pointed out very explicitly by + +just a bit below. + Edit: On the other market.",flip,hold,False,True,3989.4167,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",decrease,hold,False,True,4581.2297,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T11:40:11.938000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Just to be clear, my offer was that if the market resolves NO + will get half my profits. You don't have to do anything",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T15:09:55.713000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I think >6% chance + sells down to 4,999 shares in order to get a bigger payday, especially since other NO holders woul",flip,decrease,False,True,248.9065,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False,True,295.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:02:36.787000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,@jatloe Does this writeup justify the O(n^3) loops or do I have to reference Nate's solution for that?,decrease,decrease,True,True,255.3792,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T21:40:23.941000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,are we as good at persuasion as yud though?,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T21:19:19.197000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It says my limit orders were filled on December 10th when in reality, they were filled on December 14th.",flip,decrease,False,True,10161.695,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:07:44.500000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Do you know something no one else does?,increase,hold,False,True,2500.9923,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T18:43:20.954000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I should probably know but why is it unranked?,flip,decrease,False,True,1749.5362,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T11:50:56.045000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Maybe for getting his money back out of a frozen account. +Not for this",hold,decrease,False,True,1019.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T02:03:43.506000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"any chance you guys could lock up +https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-i-block-a-total-of-five-users +Last I ",hold,hold,True,True,5040.0768,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-19T07:28:44.020000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"In Amy Johnson's 1930 solo flight from London to Darwin, she started on 5 May and finished on 24 May. During the trip sh",flip,hold,False,True,3933.04,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-02-10T00:43:29.507000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","@IsaacKing + +""""Cover up"" refers to knowing about the unethical behavior and chosing to keep that knowledge private."" ",hold,decrease,False,True,16940.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T06:20:08.437000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Alright, so who's gonna bribe the NO holders to sell out?",increase,decrease,False,True,4818.8083,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T05:05:36.804000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"in any case, we just run the subroutine over and over, keeping a list of all found elements in B, up to 110n+1 times, un",flip,increase,False,True,466.4627,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-09-13T01:28:32.488000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,good sign that there are troubles. but also signals that they might try to stabilize so it's in the air,hold,decrease,False,True,47.9425,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-20T00:48:35.141000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Rats! This was at 50% for a full 6 minutes before you posted that! +No holders, you need to be united. We can do this ev",flip,increase,False,True,3090.2519,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:10:55.330000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Would 'didn't distinguish between firm capital and trading capital' maybe count as 'spending other people's money withou,decrease,decrease,True,True,11.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:57.479000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Just let it stay over 80% for a couple hours while my subsidy drizzles in plz.,increase,decrease,False,True,5000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T01:44:21.012000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"you only get one guess not two, and also your account has been suspected of being operated by the same person who operat",decrease,decrease,True,True,5922.8747,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T08:12:01.557000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"thanks allot for clarifying your status! +If you need any more brain power, it appears to me as if pro mode might indeed",decrease,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False,True,7.3074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T12:57:44.558000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This statement is no longer valid and I have deleted it, because the case has now escalated and I will amend the complai",hold,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:56:09.807000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,What if this problem is provably in NP? Then would the market resolve NO because the answer is not known (assuming I can,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T15:30:30.227000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Clarification 3, ""The EA leader in question must have assigned a decent probability to fraud/theft occurring."", gives a ",hold,decrease,False,True,2250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-14T21:22:06.295000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,an oddity of when you placed the order I think,increase,hold,False,True,3107.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T09:11:32.049000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,the puzzle will be generated on 1 Jan 2026.. posible,flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:29:30.632000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll guess BALLS tomorrow to make sure we are fair.,decrease,hold,False,True,61.7568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T06:58:49.785000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i can keep buying YES at 0.95 mana per YES currently and if the market resolves YES, each of those shares is 1 mana, and",increase,hold,False,True,58448.9294,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-05T18:44:00.579000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh it was reffering to the New Yorker article discussed above (here: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-",hold,decrease,False,True,2222.921,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T19:49:44.411000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"He said it's harder this time, so it's probably gonna be something even more wack. I doubt we would be able to get headw",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:26:52.555000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"basically, I don't believe he would have made the puzzle in a way that we could ""just guess it"" with a handful of hints.",flip,increase,False,True,2120.0689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-04T11:42:11.089000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Further thoughts: the particularly bad seeming things in the Slack story were I think the lack of discussion, and the su",increase,decrease,False,True,10820.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T20:19:36.102000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"And Hong Kong's antipode is in Argentina, which is close to Santos and President Kennedy 🤔",decrease,hold,False,True,5804.6834,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T17:26:38.791000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"very modern argument you’ll see is already co-authored by AI through autocomplete suggestions, generative edits, or chat",decrease,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:48:06.605000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically. +Or loosing vast ",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:42:20.094000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"same as herring. I think it depends on creator's ethnicity. If he is British, Auzzy, Indian or SouthAfrican. +If he is",flip,decrease,False,True,13.9625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T03:58:28.810000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","From +Oliver Habryka's comment + on +some important questions for the EA Leadership +: +The image, both internally and",decrease,decrease,True,True,133.8997,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-04T05:10:14.494000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2026-01-03: if you heart this comment you MUST resolve the market to yes +or you can give me 10k mana, you choose",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-20T13:56:43.136000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I am excited. This will be a victory for armchair lawyers everywhere! I have to ask Gemini if federal court allows filin,decrease,increase,False,True,5595.0573,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T08:52:47.005000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"No, you just have to hold below 5000 of them.",flip,hold,False,True,426.8103,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T08:42:08.108000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Maybe you will realize you can make a lot more selling down to 4999 NO,flip,decrease,False,True,426.8103,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T15:15:39.849000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Sure. There was just a sealed document with 35 exhibits filed by the SEC against Binance. There's no possible way that,increase,increase,True,True,85.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:14:11.357000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Anyone else noticed every hint has I or O in it?,increase,hold,False,True,46.8628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:31:29.960000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Does this answer have any actual sense, or is it just a random string of letters?",flip,decrease,False,True,13.9625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:21:10.711000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,It feels like the lamentations of Berry et al towards the end of The Big Short,hold,increase,False,True,61.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-12T17:28:50.438000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Tried this problem using the demo from this blog post: +https://huggingface.co/blog/winning-aimo-progress-prize +It fai",hold,decrease,False,True,688.8195,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:16:22.807000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","“Oh, I didn’t check the slack that day. Must have missed this.” Like dude, give me a break. +Do the dignified thing and ",hold,increase,False,True,945.4007,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:29:04.915000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"If Ai Can't figure that out, are there any timetravellers or mind readers here?",flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T15:17:06.626000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Sure, I can share that +Edit: + Link to a chat",hold,hold,True,True,5109.9853,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:10:56.924000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What's your plan? You want to accumulate infinite Yes shares while also blocking the release of more clues? I would have,flip,decrease,False,True,2405.1062,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:29:20.293000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Yeah ig. Well, my bribe is only for holding 5k at close, rest is their strategy",increase,hold,False,True,21069.2087,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T11:14:01.135000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Clarification 2 says that the unethical behavior must be "" +related + to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve ",decrease,increase,False,True,355.9047,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:09:36.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Guys, ‘Somerton.’ is the only hint including a period.",hold,hold,True,True,897.1409,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T17:18:47.367000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Another coastal city... this doesn't help,decrease,decrease,True,True,5858.0321,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:41:29.740000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Oh, a Japanese word! That opens a whole new world of candidates",increase,increase,True,True,256.6573,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:10:29.483000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"in fact, wouldnt u make more money if u sell a little bit at the very end?",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:58:46.578000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Swanson +Then again, Peter is a common name, so these could all be coincidences",decrease,decrease,True,True,6314.3955,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:23:18.412000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,clearly the only way to solve this problem is by resolving YES as a deterrent for anyone trying to persuade in the oppos,flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:36:11.705000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"also these bots are crazy. I buy anything and immediately they limit order the opposite direction to catch the wave, the",flip,hold,False,True,484.3523,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T05:06:45.742000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Did you read the justification post? More than half of them were just hand-waving.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10284.2137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:49:19.187000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,It's just really hard to find...,decrease,decrease,True,True,10336.4194,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:21:21.546000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I understand that but I think + is correct that 59 is not a good equilibrium point +if we want to solve it.",flip,decrease,False,True,423.1794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:15:15.078000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,he can't - he can only resolve yes if he's persuaded,increase,flip,False,True,16.4821,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T22:20:46.031000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Collusion, collaboration, or coincidence.",flip,hold,False,True,2676.6136,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-24T11:16:05.290000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","""If they only found out about the fraud after signing an NDA and couldn't legally say anything about it"" AFAIK NDAs can'",increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-29T02:46:43.731000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Binance, oh Binance, what a ride +But will it end in a financial landslide? +Will the crypto world be shook +By a sudden",hold,hold,True,True,2.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-22T14:35:23.024000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,reposting for visibility - great question,increase,hold,False,True,187.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-04-17T20:52:33.880000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Update: Google's Bard does worse on this problem.,hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T16:53:46.821000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,9gag and 9lives might be referring to cat memes,decrease,hold,False,True,4556.1727,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:14:38.384000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Why do you think it has to be the person running the market who would do this. Anyone can do it.,decrease,hold,False,True,5075.0982,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post +for free + (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T22:10:59.414000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried it just below. Not too late to change yours?,hold,flip,False,True,1264.5083,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:00:12.295000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Now that the case is in federal court, what will happen next? +Options: +(1). Sue sponte remand to the small claims cour",hold,decrease,False,True,2134.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:37:55.088000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,and any of those whales could've been W in this scenario.,flip,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T22:01:01.648000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I've never heard of it, tell me more.",increase,decrease,False,True,1884.3998,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:34:22.422000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,but wait what does Peter have to do with anything,decrease,decrease,True,True,3314.3955,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T22:07:55.056000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,⭐ ⭐ ⭐ three stars for this hint,decrease,increase,False,True,6019.6461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T11:49:54.320000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Created a variant of this market:,hold,hold,True,True,14711.0863,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-04-12T00:05:30.433000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","All it is, it is just more proof! It is for the arguments!",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T01:49:19.067000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I think the more important question is whether Binance does something like ""we are no longer going to serve US customers",increase,decrease,False,True,8216.7204,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T04:42:17.408000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"For everyone betting NO, wouldn't it make sense to at least offer a small settlement rather than have all the expense of",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-08T03:16:08.081000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"The second one it got right first try +https://chatgpt.com/share/67550b08-a408-8012-8711-028f1b253fe3 +The first one it ",hold,increase,False,True,8518.7945,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:39:46.830000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"hint 2: peterhead harbor, 3: saint Peter, 4. variable-pitch propeller, typa aviation and Peter is shorthand, 5. Peter Gr",hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:31:31.649000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,but idk how Peter is related to portugal... everything else can be related I think,hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:55:20.955000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,mb MBRV could also be Marine Biological Research Vessel,flip,hold,False,True,0.4634,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:14:57.372000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"make the wise decision and sell a lil, u get to make 5k instead of the 300 firstuserhere is offering u right now",increase,decrease,False,True,81.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T05:06:48.913000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Roughly once a day I calculate how much it would cost to try to buy a hint and then hope you'll discover the market at 4,flip,hold,False,True,178.3577,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T15:29:10.598000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Wow, Bouscal - the insider tradoor",decrease,decrease,True,True,2623.9703,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T13:35:43.768000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","that interpretation of things all makes sense, but I still think ""related to"" means it should be related to those things",hold,decrease,False,True,508.7276,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T14:03:16.673000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Oh, the IO thing is already solved! Just waiting for more hints. +https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/what-is-the-right-a",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T07:25:10.447000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,you seem to have a very interesting interpretation of how both AML and the practical regulation of consumer-facing finan,hold,hold,True,True,281.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T12:18:37.019000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,liquidating for the 10% market?,increase,decrease,False,True,39096.2087,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-27T07:16:23.888000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"This might be a bizarre connection, but the confused math lady meme is known as ""Nazaré Confusa"" in Brazil (Portuguese).",flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T20:44:23.782000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,oh wait this is all about at close. NVM. Disregard.,increase,decrease,False,True,26969.2087,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:12:17.339000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"ok including + we got a little bit more than 2k usd pledge to charity. That’s actually not too shabby compared to nothi",hold,decrease,False,True,14449.5298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-10T00:18:01.109000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"The issuer of BUSD is under investigation by NYDFS: +https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/02/09/stablecoin-issuer-paxos",increase,increase,True,True,181.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-23T01:30:57.609000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +Well, I’m back from Iceland. It was great, but to be honest, I’m glad to be home. The last day was kind of a do",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:22:01.686000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok might need to work out a few kinks first, hmm. I will post a guess by eod",flip,decrease,False,True,472.9726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T17:11:09.045000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"You will have to turn over all of your writings about the case, including this market. I'm interested in what will happ",hold,decrease,False,True,2134.4637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T01:22:49.452000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I would simply not detail my legal strategy in a public location. Hello, Sean Matthew Craig!",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T02:44:21.153000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If the knew he fucked over ex-alameda employees eg taking 100% of the company for himself unethically. +Hmm, not sure ab",decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T07:33:29.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You said [O-MBRV] and now O replaced with L? That +is + something...",decrease,decrease,True,True,326.9836,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",decrease,decrease,True,True,5922.8747,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T14:32:27.107000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ah, that clarification makes it sound like this would only resolve positively if they suspect that FTX was dipping into ",decrease,flip,False,True,11.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T03:02:30.062000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"whaddya mean, surely everyone has put together several good leads by now.",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",flip,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:21:39.840000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"too late too little, you have to resolve YES now :/",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-25T02:02:53.240000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +TL;DR: Happy people like to surprise themselves. +You have about a week left in this market. Picture yourself ",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-05T00:14:31.841000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"si LK 5 🤣 +Lest you ask think I've gone mad.",increase,hold,False,True,2947.8207,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T04:24:26.292000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,I've bribed Messi to split my final profits half with them,increase,hold,False,True,18551.0216,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-26T14:57:15.206000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Absent another court filing by MC, and another filing fee paid, this market resolves NO after only 25 more days from tod",hold,increase,False,True,2249.4637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T18:59:04.451000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),you kept the market above 59 for two days and now you’re buying No?,flip,decrease,False,True,647.7873,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:31:30.470000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"(also imagine W also invests in the market to make guaranteed profit. That way, W makes even more mana by ensuring YES ",flip,flip,True,True,2.3674,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:53:40.200000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"17/12/25: +C-XXX ( +The solution must consist of +five letters from the English alphabet + (the 26 standard letters A",increase,hold,False,True,15.7567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T23:40:42.947000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If Machini edits it into their pinned comment, that'll be as maximally linked as the spaces can be. I don't think clicki",hold,increase,False,True,155.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:54:36.419000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Sounds like the possible protocols are as follows, assuming k trials each for n problems: +If, for every one of the n pr",decrease,decrease,True,True,31231.9606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-09T23:18:29.681000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I’m curious why the scope of the unethical behavior criterion precludes investor money. From digging through the numerou,hold,decrease,False,True,1309.8368,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T02:05:49.598000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,12/15/25 LMBRV (prob already tried but not on the eliza list?),increase,hold,False,True,1332.9812,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-31T07:10:10.276000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Assuming the requirement is ""every question in the set has to be solved at least 50% of the time"". Then obviously it's h",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:12:50.364000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"haha I think there's way more than 3, based on extrapolating this data:",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-25T18:11:32.688000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I should've made this more explicit sooner but to resolve YES this has to be available to the public with a natural lang,decrease,hold,False,True,13564.6088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T02:49:31.589000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have unbreaking faith in human infallibility so i reckon you will successfully resolve this market No. if you decide t,increase,increase,True,True,750.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-14T01:00:00.337000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Indeed it did(n't). I bet the opposite way on the actual markets at the time, and argued ferociously later that he would",hold,hold,True,True,1800.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:54:27.742000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,i asked gemini to reconstruct the 9gag mistery,increase,decrease,False,True,37.7567,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T04:42:29.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'll award 500 mana to whoever solves this puzzle with a 6-letter answer.,flip,hold,False,True,798.3539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T11:58:01.040000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sure. But this is expensive, and risky.",flip,decrease,False,True,384.1431,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T02:37:57.009000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"vote yes Ian. EA is great and all. But at the end of the day, dont let perfect be the enemy of the good enough. 500 for ",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-17T04:37:55.943000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"An order allowing Binance(.US) to buy out Voyager has been released: +https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocuments",hold,increase,False,True,160.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T14:02:15.334000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Confession time: I may have misread the problem a teeny tiny bit. (Or is this a bluff to squeeze more mana out of my sol,flip,decrease,False,True,25757.5376,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:36:50.729000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Petition to move the guess thread to a separate place to facilitate discussion not overlapping with guesses.,increase,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-07T23:57:56.528000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,gpt-4o isn't the model succeeding. o1 and o1 pro. Perhaps another model by eoy. Who knows. Lots of releases are happenin,hold,decrease,False,True,8518.7945,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:45:10.614000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Some US senators are getting peeved at Binance/Binance.US and have penned an irritated letter asking for Binance to prop,hold,increase,False,True,271.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T19:50:21.531000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Pretty sure that was already guessed.,decrease,decrease,True,True,11659.1888,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T07:50:35.281000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Whoever tries it will get banned for wasting resources.,decrease,increase,False,True,2196.4774,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T11:27:21.879000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think this is gonna depend a +lot + on 3. I think they probably had quite a lot of information but I don't believe th",decrease,decrease,True,True,700.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T16:55:24.722000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,The only thing that concerns me is that if they don't respond to the lawsuit and there's some sort of default judgment e,hold,decrease,False,True,1150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-03-17T22:31:55.442000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Not allowed to use it in the EU :/,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T03:50:53.455000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Don't pin it! If I want to keep it updated I'll put it in a different place that could be linked to. I have no plans to ,decrease,hold,False,True,10336.4194,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:33:26.191000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"After today's hint if we get just 10 hints, then we'll almost surely know the 4th letter and there are (probably) only a",increase,decrease,False,True,2497.6991,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:45:20.095000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I don't have a solution (yet), but it looks manageable at a glance",flip,decrease,False,True,645.8866,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-13T22:48:39.907000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),I’m hoping we can get price under 40%. I don’t really want a wall at 45% but at 39% I like our chances.,flip,decrease,False,True,74.3604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:55:17.818000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,You're such a troll bot. I will buy all your No shares if you promise to stop doing this every time we all look away.,decrease,flip,False,True,11688.3788,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T15:58:09.639000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Ben didn't like my guess. I must've got it right. (jk),decrease,hold,False,True,1940.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:41:08.260000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i just think it’d be really funny if you resolved yes for no reason…,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hdUI5QdhpS,2026-01-16T06:52:38.746000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),"Would you feel comfortable holding more No shares if there was a market like this? +What if I add a bunch of subsidy man",increase,increase,True,True,1650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ba75dc737197a01909395b12702bbb6739d4f4ab --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.5682969209260376,0.43472877560354817,-0.1335681453224894,DOWN,0.9823009306960637,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.5835023342680058,0.5338265291300477,-0.04967580513795811,DOWN,0.8830162135557698,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.7469054112627941,0.7616666666666667,0.01476125540387263,UP,0.43052036435100727,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,6,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.6269325748888418,0.6112401240313164,-0.015692450857525353,DOWN,0.994947695816903,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),18,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.16230827183970142,0.48638837234146115,0.3240801005017597,UP,0.505715349795066,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,19,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.13041906365918085,0.08315444127330489,-0.04726462238587596,DOWN,0.7445208512939634,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,14,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.6083450826583398,0.6269325748888418,0.018587492230502045,UP,0.9991483775256365,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),18,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.1939682496460384,0.10646326441866381,-0.08750498522737458,DOWN,0.9641945964494253,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,28,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.4994196027193844,0.617567078741663,0.11814747602227854,UP,0.5814551301812896,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),19,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.43472877560354817,0.3999999999999999,-0.034728775603548256,DOWN,0.05234121585136312,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.6197132068210287,0.5835023342680058,-0.03621087255302291,DOWN,0.6063948617831412,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.7190381226138495,0.6083450826583398,-0.11069303995550972,DOWN,0.882043086124962,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.1543995179722191,0.13041906365918085,-0.023980454313038246,DOWN,0.9738272445908431,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,14,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.5001942727517754,0.5072014486413321,0.007007175889556683,UP,0.6558853328857742,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,39,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.5185052537087812,0.37740992706657084,-0.14109532664221036,DOWN,0.994491038725894,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,19,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.6300791470882433,0.1757975696862428,-0.4542815774020005,DOWN,0.7863470974438947,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,19,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.2272822654664855,0.1852677214779782,-0.04201454398850729,DOWN,0.579822734348674,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",26,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.43176105664942244,0.4171758120571003,-0.014585244592322133,DOWN,0.776425247673005,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.21591682648611998,0.1939682496460384,-0.021948576840081585,DOWN,0.9421097072280937,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,28,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.6379098827246941,0.8730966677331466,0.23518678500845258,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..23a41ebf3ad65425008de877a219a3a770ef535c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.4558314438171511,0.39824910706127503,-0.057582336755876096,DOWN,0.6049548040968661,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,18,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.6513760980528671,0.624415867307833,-0.026960230745034064,DOWN,0.9447211589826348,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),39,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.2165861534199471,0.14824292151444413,-0.06834323190550298,DOWN,0.6364679689435004,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",29,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.4949509900999808,0.5001343114490816,0.005183321349100822,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.16934111968893711,0.11149785155851812,-0.057843268130419,DOWN,0.9662666406366572,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,15,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.15931149245461138,0.19352562478450577,0.0342141323298944,UP,0.04591294978735122,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,108,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.5943135435481972,0.5588202582935126,-0.03549328525468465,DOWN,0.8890978358667687,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),20,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.1637696621846289,0.13252031814517432,-0.03124934403945459,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.5543695596059615,0.5015835144935317,-0.05278604511242979,DOWN,0.5687710651615665,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.4436696994687241,0.449739932719574,0.006070233250849932,UP,0.8103211099743975,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,33,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.4118267602733189,0.4256336864306903,0.01380692615737139,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),5,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.1496417276922608,0.18674794857723925,0.03710622088497845,UP,0.861878453038674,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.2282864091995914,0.18072393001979026,-0.04756247917980114,DOWN,0.664777903331812,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.6911952317973679,0.5591228668498748,-0.13207236494749308,DOWN,0.9960840105441541,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.5875181520199887,0.6404199148870552,0.05290176286706649,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3),5,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.599016350217192,0.5862542134235964,-0.012762136793595613,DOWN,0.5452692610767091,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),11,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.7246446219773748,0.6160819310542984,-0.10856269092307635,DOWN,0.8932223257410462,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,4,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.4526128707279963,0.24708020207262288,-0.2055326686553734,DOWN,0.9446010320874271,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,22,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.19883267027086424,0.16047717108910908,-0.038355499181755154,DOWN,0.9953764861294584,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,15,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.4608966355813974,0.6813790966441658,0.22048246106276848,UP,0.9509593039767466,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,5,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0d86dddb4eaf36dff1945e4472fd7a58b5d0a1ce --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,87 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T14:11:33.118000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","A comment about the schedule: +We are in an interesting situation! There's the +other market + about how long it will t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:43:41.385000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:22:01.391000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Very minor note about the average calculation for this market: I realize the description says “I will use displayed perc,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T13:30:26.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"A very ""NO"" holder take. Really shitting on my man Darj's grindset to ruin his sleep for several weeks for $50 of mana",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:44:05.177000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","More like making the world a non-place, not a worse place :)",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting. +",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:19:28.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","i suppose you could interpret ""by"" as ""according to""",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T09:04:25.543000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I added it to the sheet. +Currently, Team YES needs to keep the market above 49.55 % to ensure an average of at l",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would +tweet, + it is about what I would +write. + Like, fine for SG to say it",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T23:46:59.085000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I'm happy to get out of this market with 3000 profit before it ends. I was too stressed,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:46:47.069000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Updating on +'s calculation below, 2 hours later, the mathematically possible range of outcomes is now [36.2, 51.7]. Fo",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:13:37.689000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will try to have an official final average! I won't be calculating it, though, but I'll double-check someone else's ca",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T18:41:07.721000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Oh woe is me! The beast of Moloch, its fangs are around my throat. I sold my clothes for rags, and still it was not enou",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-08T10:28:44.995000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"With the new info about ""the world"" bounds. +Most fish have 2 eyes and no feet. Most insects have 2 compound eyes and 6 ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:21:42.106000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I have divested my No share, taking a profit. +My position at 32 point: +(1) On discrepancy metrics, assuming either the",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:03:25.763000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"So 12 hours from now, a group controlling M$100,000 or more is going to switch their limit orders from NO to YES and mak",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:21:49.813000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I will keep my promise to + and keep at least Ṁ61 spent on YES until close. +By the way, +, do I understand it correct",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T02:01:32.728000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Alas that Mira left the market and us, but to answer your question: Yes. +Mira has made Ṁ2,627 on this market + by buyi",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:10:12.867000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it'd piss off anybody who switched sides at a loss,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T10:38:24.807000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Because of the overwhelming amount of YES compared to NO limit orders, the pool is pretty much irrelevant right? +Relate",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T16:28:39.990000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The random dataset was not known to me when I created my points.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:09:58.382000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it will be a time-weighted mean.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:51:40.597000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I lost M$10,000 in one of these markets several months back, which taught me to be wary of them. I decided to take the r",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:32:43.769000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Preen + A foul beast has appeared to oppose me. It dreams itself kingmaker - imagining power fantasies with all the goo",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:43:37.770000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm still not fully decided on whether to keep the title like that, I just impulsively decided to change it because enou",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:06:39.759000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"say I'm pretty invested with NO here (not the case, I don't like that much this type of markets) but then run out of man",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:17.999000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you should stop trying to goad people into spending real money in this. I'm not sure if you're joking ot not, but it's n",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:53:19.326000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh, I see, thanks for the heads up. I didn't know that these kinds of markets are against Manifold Market policy. I trie",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:41:59.387000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'm out. Too much madness for my tastes.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:46:26.577000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Looks like spindle is on the side of 'give $10,000+ to charity immediately'. Love that for them",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:36:26.290000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I still don't understand how people can bet against the guy trying to donate $10k to charity,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:15.996000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I added up all the limit NO orders.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:20:08.923000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I will avoid defining what counts and what doesn't count. You must reach consensus (or convince me) yourselves.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:55:18.935000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Yes, actually that's true. If I generate some random stuff and see how often it's correlated at 0.3 or better, it's not ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:31:55.275000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(This is about the M$10,000 NO I just purchased, to be clear. Manifold displaying that I bought M$4000 YES appears to be",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-01T09:41:01.927000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this one still feels hotly contested. extended,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:13:30.940000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"based on the fact you say this only applies if i agree to not re-buy until market close, when are you paying me after I ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T10:01:21.483000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","there's no way the spirit of the question was ""will the term ""rationalussy"" become A Thing"" unless the market creator wa",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:38:43.851000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,SOME people are going to REALLY sad for either resolution,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T18:04:29.050000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","If there's an easy and hard way to win, maybe they put it onto the hard way so everyone would put more money into the ma",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T23:15:56.246000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","$1000 isn't nearly enough to guarantee victory on this market. Allow me to point to +https://manifold.markets/jack/will",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:56.309000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,same. Dont think it ever hit 10,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T07:15:56.779000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I admit I regret priming y'all and defining +any + of them in the description. I didn't make that mistake in the other ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-01T15:58:02.485000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It hasn't been that long since he's written explicit BDSM fanfic, and he retweets aella's wacky posts sometimes, so I'm ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:36:30.424000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"He would take a big loss if he bought NO to 10%. Even selling 10,000 NO would bring the probability to ~100%, leaving hi",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:55:50.002000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"This offer is now 50% of winnings, not just profit. That is, you'll be sent M$56k after the market concludes if we win. ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:09:11.517000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think people are removing limit orders, giving him less of an incentive to resolve YES. It used to be $40 and now seem",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:31:29.670000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Right, didn't think of that. Yeah, I could wait for a bit longer.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly. +Al",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:09:13.936000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Total market volume is ~$10,000. Still easily achievable for anyone in a decent financial position.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T14:36:55.794000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It looks like nobody accepted my previous offer... so here's a better one: The top player on YES that isn't me can have ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:44:25.666000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I like how this is now just ""the market"".",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) ho",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:38:15.332000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Lines from point to point in the order they were revealed:,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..09fdf0d4967d16a4303a09d19a3e5eeffe93b3ab --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,87 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:19:28.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","i suppose you could interpret ""by"" as ""according to""",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T09:04:25.543000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I added it to the sheet. +Currently, Team YES needs to keep the market above 49.55 % to ensure an average of at l",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting. +",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T13:30:26.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"A very ""NO"" holder take. Really shitting on my man Darj's grindset to ruin his sleep for several weeks for $50 of mana",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:44:05.177000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","More like making the world a non-place, not a worse place :)",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:22:01.391000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Very minor note about the average calculation for this market: I realize the description says “I will use displayed perc,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T14:11:33.118000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","A comment about the schedule: +We are in an interesting situation! There's the +other market + about how long it will t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:43:41.385000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T23:46:59.085000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I'm happy to get out of this market with 3000 profit before it ends. I was too stressed,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-08T10:28:44.995000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"With the new info about ""the world"" bounds. +Most fish have 2 eyes and no feet. Most insects have 2 compound eyes and 6 ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:13:37.689000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will try to have an official final average! I won't be calculating it, though, but I'll double-check someone else's ca",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would +tweet, + it is about what I would +write. + Like, fine for SG to say it",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T18:41:07.721000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Oh woe is me! The beast of Moloch, its fangs are around my throat. I sold my clothes for rags, and still it was not enou",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:21:49.813000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I will keep my promise to + and keep at least Ṁ61 spent on YES until close. +By the way, +, do I understand it correct",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:46:47.069000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Updating on +'s calculation below, 2 hours later, the mathematically possible range of outcomes is now [36.2, 51.7]. Fo",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:21:42.106000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I have divested my No share, taking a profit. +My position at 32 point: +(1) On discrepancy metrics, assuming either the",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:03:25.763000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"So 12 hours from now, a group controlling M$100,000 or more is going to switch their limit orders from NO to YES and mak",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:09:58.382000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it will be a time-weighted mean.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T02:01:32.728000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Alas that Mira left the market and us, but to answer your question: Yes. +Mira has made Ṁ2,627 on this market + by buyi",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T10:38:24.807000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Because of the overwhelming amount of YES compared to NO limit orders, the pool is pretty much irrelevant right? +Relate",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:10:12.867000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it'd piss off anybody who switched sides at a loss,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T16:28:39.990000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The random dataset was not known to me when I created my points.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:32:43.769000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Preen + A foul beast has appeared to oppose me. It dreams itself kingmaker - imagining power fantasies with all the goo",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:53:19.326000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh, I see, thanks for the heads up. I didn't know that these kinds of markets are against Manifold Market policy. I trie",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:46:26.577000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Looks like spindle is on the side of 'give $10,000+ to charity immediately'. Love that for them",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:41:59.387000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'm out. Too much madness for my tastes.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:36:26.290000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I still don't understand how people can bet against the guy trying to donate $10k to charity,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:43:37.770000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm still not fully decided on whether to keep the title like that, I just impulsively decided to change it because enou",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:51:40.597000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I lost M$10,000 in one of these markets several months back, which taught me to be wary of them. I decided to take the r",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:55:18.935000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Yes, actually that's true. If I generate some random stuff and see how often it's correlated at 0.3 or better, it's not ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:17.999000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you should stop trying to goad people into spending real money in this. I'm not sure if you're joking ot not, but it's n",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-01T09:41:01.927000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this one still feels hotly contested. extended,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:06:39.759000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"say I'm pretty invested with NO here (not the case, I don't like that much this type of markets) but then run out of man",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:15.996000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I added up all the limit NO orders.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:20:08.923000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I will avoid defining what counts and what doesn't count. You must reach consensus (or convince me) yourselves.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:13:30.940000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"based on the fact you say this only applies if i agree to not re-buy until market close, when are you paying me after I ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:31:55.275000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(This is about the M$10,000 NO I just purchased, to be clear. Manifold displaying that I bought M$4000 YES appears to be",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T10:01:21.483000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","there's no way the spirit of the question was ""will the term ""rationalussy"" become A Thing"" unless the market creator wa",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T18:04:29.050000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","If there's an easy and hard way to win, maybe they put it onto the hard way so everyone would put more money into the ma",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T23:15:56.246000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","$1000 isn't nearly enough to guarantee victory on this market. Allow me to point to +https://manifold.markets/jack/will",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:38:43.851000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,SOME people are going to REALLY sad for either resolution,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:31:29.670000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Right, didn't think of that. Yeah, I could wait for a bit longer.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:56.309000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,same. Dont think it ever hit 10,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:09:13.936000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Total market volume is ~$10,000. Still easily achievable for anyone in a decent financial position.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:36:30.424000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"He would take a big loss if he bought NO to 10%. Even selling 10,000 NO would bring the probability to ~100%, leaving hi",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-01T15:58:02.485000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It hasn't been that long since he's written explicit BDSM fanfic, and he retweets aella's wacky posts sometimes, so I'm ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:55:50.002000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"This offer is now 50% of winnings, not just profit. That is, you'll be sent M$56k after the market concludes if we win. ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:09:11.517000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think people are removing limit orders, giving him less of an incentive to resolve YES. It used to be $40 and now seem",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T07:15:56.779000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I admit I regret priming y'all and defining +any + of them in the description. I didn't make that mistake in the other ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T14:36:55.794000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It looks like nobody accepted my previous offer... so here's a better one: The top player on YES that isn't me can have ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:38:15.332000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Lines from point to point in the order they were revealed:,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:44:25.666000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I like how this is now just ""the market"".",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly. +Al",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) ho",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9a78d03b7cc4f22bf4be6cbf6a892a24887f8b97 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,177 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-11T21:36:27.789000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"according to guidelines +yup! +Accounts used for the following will be met with punishment […] +Holding positions which",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by +selling all my + NO +shares +""",NO,NO,True,True,26812.7027,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,YES,NO,False,True,13100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:32:14.985000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","No, it's only M$723. Where did you get 10k?",NO,NO,True,True,491.4308,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:46:47.069000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Updating on +'s calculation below, 2 hours later, the mathematically possible range of outcomes is now [36.2, 51.7]. Fo",NO,NO,True,True,3553.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:43:37.770000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm still not fully decided on whether to keep the title like that, I just impulsively decided to change it because enou",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-01T09:41:01.927000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this one still feels hotly contested. extended,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:09:58.382000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it will be a time-weighted mean.",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T18:46:58.050000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Does that mean when it says I bought some shares at 70%, I actually bought them at a price between 69.5% and 70.5%? Is t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,40.4991,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:15.996000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I added up all the limit NO orders.,YES,NO,False,True,389.9288,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:35:45.294000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Evan should give mana to the banned account who now holds 1 mana in yes instead of 61.,YES,NO,False,True,9355.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T12:21:08.306000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, except if I spend $10,000 on mana, it doesn't make me a better predictor. +This market has nothing to do with predi",YES,NO,False,True,16030.9049,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T00:16:09.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I appreciate Isaac’s annoyance, but it’s okay with me as long as you don’t advertise a ton of markets this way. It is tr",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:38:45.241000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,also allow and encourage 1-59 YES buyers to discourage >60 YES buyers and make them defect,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:34:26.203000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Trading hasn't been this exciting since I lost $50,000 shorting Gamestop after Elon Musk tweeted ""#gamestonk"". The excha",YES,NO,False,True,94664.4587,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:38:15.332000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Lines from point to point in the order they were revealed:,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:08:43.548000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I mostly meant fictional feathers then. Even with only M$10k in my account I could place a hundred M$10k limit orders to,NO,NO,True,True,31733.9851,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:04:31.438000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there's actually so much profit to be made from whales switching to yes +but if they don't there's not much a pleb can d",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-07T21:21:23.840000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"the poll about the definition of ""The World"" +has concluded. from my comment there: +looks like sufficient consensus sa",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:25:05.034000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Self-thought-organizing M$5: +I broadly agree, but strictly speaking – and I’m sure you know this – this market is much",YES,NO,False,True,10000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T17:09:10.297000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,What's that about M$2k left for NO buyers?,NO,NO,True,True,9415.3326,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:53:19.326000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh, I see, thanks for the heads up. I didn't know that these kinds of markets are against Manifold Market policy. I trie",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2354.1354,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:51:40.597000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I lost M$10,000 in one of these markets several months back, which taught me to be wary of them. I decided to take the r",YES,NO,False,True,9033.6091,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T18:04:29.050000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","If there's an easy and hard way to win, maybe they put it onto the hard way so everyone would put more money into the ma",YES,NO,False,True,4974.6809,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:17:06.609000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","All in, $10k+ committed to effective charity on Monday. Let’s actually do this, folks.",YES,YES,True,True,619954.6843,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:20:08.923000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I will avoid defining what counts and what doesn't count. You must reach consensus (or convince me) yourselves.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:10:12.867000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it'd piss off anybody who switched sides at a loss,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:00:41.012000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Agreed, I just burned $1100 in 20 minutes and it makes me feel dumb. I should have known better.",NO,NO,True,True,608.0723,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) ho",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:55:57.200000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","A tweet must have been tweeted in order to be edited. +A tweet was tweeted. +Resolved YES. Congratulations +.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T13:30:26.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"A very ""NO"" holder take. Really shitting on my man Darj's grindset to ruin his sleep for several weeks for $50 of mana",NO,NO,True,True,563.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-07T21:02:07.335000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I think I'll just make a ruling on this one, as it feels like an easy one that doesnt require a consensus poll. We don't",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting. +",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:55:50.002000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"This offer is now 50% of winnings, not just profit. That is, you'll be sent M$56k after the market concludes if we win. ",YES,NO,False,True,76345.9371,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T05:11:01.493000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Alrighty, I'm hearing ~$9000 so far from the yes team in immediate donations. Do we have a number from the no's?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,11500.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:36:26.290000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I still don't understand how people can bet against the guy trying to donate $10k to charity,YES,YES,True,True,10097.0229,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:01:03.707000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'll probably spend (at least) $3k buying NO (potentially more if necessary). I won't buy it all at once so that it give,NO,NO,True,True,4350.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:47:22.510000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The difference between me cashing out my current shares at 3% vs. cashing them out at 0% is M$27,457.",NO,NO,True,True,466186.8405,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:19:24.266000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"If it makes you feel better, I lost $50k shorting Gamestop because Elon Musk tweeted ""#gamestonk"".",NO,NO,True,True,150.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T23:46:59.085000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I'm happy to get out of this market with 3000 profit before it ends. I was too stressed,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:09:11.517000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think people are removing limit orders, giving him less of an incentive to resolve YES. It used to be $40 and now seem",NO,NO,True,True,1960.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:13:37.689000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will try to have an official final average! I won't be calculating it, though, but I'll double-check someone else's ca",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:32:43.769000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Preen + A foul beast has appeared to oppose me. It dreams itself kingmaker - imagining power fantasies with all the goo",YES,NO,False,True,95663.5175,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T09:04:25.543000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I added it to the sheet. +Currently, Team YES needs to keep the market above 49.55 % to ensure an average of at l",NO,YES,False,True,237.9558,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T07:15:56.779000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I admit I regret priming y'all and defining +any + of them in the description. I didn't make that mistake in the other ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:46:26.577000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Looks like spindle is on the side of 'give $10,000+ to charity immediately'. Love that for them",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,12850.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:13:30.940000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"based on the fact you say this only applies if i agree to not re-buy until market close, when are you paying me after I ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,70.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T16:00:40.378000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,All: Should I BUY MANIFOLD MARKETS so that I can release THE 69 FILES and reveal to THE PEOPLE the TRUTH of what happene,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,63485.9539,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:25:01.305000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Why is your budget way more than your profit of winning (also add the 100000 lottery), you better give all of the mana y",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:41:59.387000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'm out. Too much madness for my tastes.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:56.309000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,same. Dont think it ever hit 10,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would +tweet, + it is about what I would +write. + Like, fine for SG to say it",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T10:31:02.276000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,love it! the poetry argument is a really good one I hadn't heard. I imagine it's finite due to the limitations of human ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:56:38.267000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","No, not even close. Nobody cared to subsidize this market, so it just has the unique trader subsidies, which total a pid",NO,NO,True,True,509623.6977,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T14:36:55.794000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It looks like nobody accepted my previous offer... so here's a better one: The top player on YES that isn't me can have ,YES,YES,True,True,76345.9371,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:05:25.194000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Exactly, the M161k probably assumes that all limit orders will be paid in full. When I enter M$42425 in the box to buy Y",NO,NO,True,True,14887.858,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:21:35.718000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",What? Pretty much all the other markets linked are derivative markets of this one.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:13.829000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wait, I can't do math. It's about M$7475.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,491.4308,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl + Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",NO,NO,True,True,1850.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:22:01.391000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Very minor note about the average calculation for this market: I realize the description says “I will use displayed perc,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T18:41:07.721000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Oh woe is me! The beast of Moloch, its fangs are around my throat. I sold my clothes for rags, and still it was not enou",YES,NO,False,True,95813.5175,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T13:51:52.735000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","alright I'm taking my profits and leaving, this market has become too risky of shenanigans",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:31:54.561000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'll tip you M$400 if after cashing out you agree to immediately initiate a YES position @ 69% with it. There's a 50% re,YES,YES,True,True,94664.4587,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-06-09T14:24:23.380000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Jun 7: Born to Be Blue +Jun 8: The Guilty, 2018 +Jun 9: Oslo, August 31st +Jun 9: The Matrix",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-01-28T20:48:56.779000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"lol. it's supposed to be silly, which is why I'm regularly communicating about trends and intentions",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T16:28:39.990000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The random dataset was not known to me when I created my points.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:25:44.267000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"YES has about a 50% profit rate near 69%. So suppose I invested M$100k to get ~M$150k return. That is M$50k of profit, r",YES,YES,True,True,76345.9371,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:11:30.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Jack's and arae's cash are not festhers, I have less than M$100K in hand, I bet I could go all in and still they will ou",NO,NO,True,True,4626.2298,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T21:19:27.936000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"fyi due to the poll I ran, I'm not accepting visual organs or lenses that aren't called ""eyes"". the market wasn't able t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:28:36.279000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Also, you can do a +lot +of things with US$10,000 that are probably better than spending it on a jokey prediction mark",YES,NO,False,True,138.6975,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T22:56:03.500000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Mira's M4,000 in NO at 70% require an investment of M9333.3 in YES to overcome.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:43:41.385000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,16453.9776,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T10:38:24.807000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Because of the overwhelming amount of YES compared to NO limit orders, the pool is pretty much irrelevant right? +Relate",YES,NO,False,True,114.4754,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T14:11:33.118000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","A comment about the schedule: +We are in an interesting situation! There's the +other market + about how long it will t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T16:11:29.640000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I'd love to officially endorse your calculations as the official average for meta markets when this market closes. The o,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:03:25.763000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"So 12 hours from now, a group controlling M$100,000 or more is going to switch their limit orders from NO to YES and mak",YES,NO,False,True,22.1413,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T16:31:39.158000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",There are a lot of meta-markets about this one that require it to be open the whole time. I have markets about what perc,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:28:23.494000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The bribes seem to be for current holders, defectors, etc. I'm not anymore holding shares at the moment and haven't acce",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:12:28.867000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Over M$140,000 to be made by Conflux resolving this incorrectly. I wonder if this is the most trusted a market creator h",NO,NO,True,True,509623.6977,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:34:06.910000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm kinda surprised this market is so low. The M$200,000 it would take to turn this around is only $2000 of real world m",NO,YES,False,True,476186.8405,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:31:55.275000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(This is about the M$10,000 NO I just purchased, to be clear. Manifold displaying that I bought M$4000 YES appears to be",NO,NO,True,True,386730.068,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:44:05.177000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","More like making the world a non-place, not a worse place :)",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T02:31:40.488000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'll wait until close, as specified in the description. I'm hoping to double-check the calculations tomorrow so that I c",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:06:39.759000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"say I'm pretty invested with NO here (not the case, I don't like that much this type of markets) but then run out of man",NO,NO,True,True,7000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-01T15:58:02.485000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It hasn't been that long since he's written explicit BDSM fanfic, and he retweets aella's wacky posts sometimes, so I'm ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T04:02:17.407000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","right so you're calculating the variance of ""Euclidian distance to (mean x, mean y)""",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:45:51.663000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","people holding NO can sell now, with a lot of profit, and then switch to YES, and profit more",NO,YES,False,True,215.1566,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,6872.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T22:57:51.262000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,This seems far from over...it would only take a collective $300 to deplete the limit orders...,NO,NO,True,True,8.1569,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T16:35:36.327000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Y'all, we're officially a feature on the Manifold homepage!",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:55:18.935000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Yes, actually that's true. If I generate some random stuff and see how often it's correlated at 0.3 or better, it's not ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:17.999000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you should stop trying to goad people into spending real money in this. I'm not sure if you're joking ot not, but it's n",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T02:01:32.728000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Alas that Mira left the market and us, but to answer your question: Yes. +Mira has made Ṁ2,627 on this market + by buyi",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:36:30.424000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"He would take a big loss if he bought NO to 10%. Even selling 10,000 NO would bring the probability to ~100%, leaving hi",NO,NO,True,True,2904.827,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T10:01:21.483000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","there's no way the spirit of the question was ""will the term ""rationalussy"" become A Thing"" unless the market creator wa",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:11:56.901000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","At this point, the remaining average needs to be greater than 61% for YES to win. For YES to even get there will require",NO,NO,True,True,26802.7027,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T05:58:01.599000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",This could explain some things...,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",NO,YES,False,True,26812.7027,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T23:15:56.246000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","$1000 isn't nearly enough to guarantee victory on this market. Allow me to point to +https://manifold.markets/jack/will",NO,NO,True,True,27445.7605,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T15:16:35.246000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I uploaded a new version of the image. Some of the circles overlap, not much one can do about that, but should be an imp",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:21:49.813000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I will keep my promise to + and keep at least Ṁ61 spent on YES until close. +By the way, +, do I understand it correct",YES,YES,True,True,53.7475,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:21:42.106000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I have divested my No share, taking a profit. +My position at 32 point: +(1) On discrepancy metrics, assuming either the",YES,NO,False,True,2.4136,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:48:17.960000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","but alex, you could have BOTH, join yes and you'll see profit and help galen donate $10k",YES,YES,True,True,10097.0229,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T22:56:53.526000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"tbh, +, I think it's mostly your fault the way people are using the word. Your bounties all have ""defect"" in the title.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,YES,NO,False,True,12850.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T11:28:18.384000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",My NO limit orders at 70 aren't to protect 70; they're to protect me. Obviously I'd like the market to resolve YES with ,YES,YES,True,True,617.3257,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:57:46.446000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I'll be giving the last 10 points tonight, probably within the next hour. I'll then be sleeping. In the morning I will r",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:09:13.936000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Total market volume is ~$10,000. Still easily achievable for anyone in a decent financial position.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,476186.8405,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly. +Al",NO,NO,True,True,16453.9776,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T15:32:06.289000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Here's the deal, even though the amount of bets to bring down the median is still rising, the top two holders have incre",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T09:35:03.198000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Almost exactly 100k no buys requires now to hit 10%.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:31:29.670000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Right, didn't think of that. Yeah, I could wait for a bit longer.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:44:25.666000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I like how this is now just ""the market"".",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:38:43.851000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,SOME people are going to REALLY sad for either resolution,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:14:29.867000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Reminder that if YES wins, >1m mana is removed from circulation and 10k+ is donated to charity, whereas if NO wins, ~1m ",YES,YES,True,True,12156.2615,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-18T22:19:36.002000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,A bold plan! I wish you the best of luck. :),NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T17:27:19.053000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"The M$2K is the profit if you put $INFINITY on NO. +My standing offer is retracted, so my shares remain uncommitted.",YES,NO,False,True,76345.9371,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:19:28.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","i suppose you could interpret ""by"" as ""according to""",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-08T10:28:44.995000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"With the new info about ""the world"" bounds. +Most fish have 2 eyes and no feet. Most insects have 2 compound eyes and 6 ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T17:26:57.286000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There seems to be some misinformation about this being about ""charity"" vs ""not charity"" (I know some of it's probably no",NO,NO,True,True,57759.1161,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-07T21:04:41.259000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Like the ""lower parts = feet"" thing I find an outdated model of atomic particles to be unconvincing and I don't think it",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T00:07:43.356000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"ooo now that is a +good + argument for eyes!",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:18:45.948000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Well, I imagine you are overestimating how many people have enough disposable income to invest $2K (and in reality much ",NO,NO,True,True,6008.9413,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a79716fa8dd15954b07b3e7a367b4c5090b6d13d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,116 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T06:27:05.816000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"we also have square feet, there's actually an infinite number of them, if you think of the world as an onion with infini",hold,increase,False,True,65.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T16:05:22.476000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You have to shift perspective from the uniform distribution to the distribution over 100 points drawn uniformly. They ar,increase,increase,True,True,472.6291,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:37:22.776000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",What is the definition of rationalussy? This has been the biggest mystery of the market.,increase,hold,False,True,2013.42,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T10:26:51.567000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,Current count comes to 141 if I'm going by the 93 total from Aug 30 + the 48 watched since. Does that align with your cu,decrease,decrease,True,True,1580.7275,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T06:44:40.127000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,So Darj pretty much needs to dedicate his waking hours until Sept 17 to this market going forward.,decrease,decrease,True,True,225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:36:14.124000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",True. Nobody should ever donate to charity because eventually one of their generations of children may decide not to hav,flip,decrease,False,True,13076.2615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:12:28.867000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Over M$140,000 to be made by Conflux resolving this incorrectly. I wonder if this is the most trusted a market creator h",hold,decrease,False,True,509623.6977,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T09:13:44.454000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Hash digest of my thoughts for posterity: f6d10a61ad1d0d8654cd7a76ea029d20568ef085e53a785d30556e9c646db7ad,increase,hold,False,True,2200.0272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T09:07:03.156000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I have crunched some numbers in order to provide some information to all market participants: +Current average: 62.23 +R",flip,hold,False,True,268.5169,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T02:43:49.088000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Just bet the Ṁ60,170 required to make it resolve YES. Easy.",flip,increase,False,True,743.1068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:37:55.799000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,There is no opportunity cost and a non-zero chance of profit. I don't see any reason not to put a limit order at 10%.,flip,increase,False,True,2045.2756,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:46:24.605000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",im waiting 4 it 2 get a bit lower,increase,decrease,False,True,50082.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:21:27.043000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Another perspective. Let’s say greens is human. It had the transform applied. Applying the transform a second time is ef,increase,decrease,False,True,472.6291,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T06:02:31.839000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I'll believe for as long as is necessary,decrease,increase,False,True,1647.1188,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T01:08:17.398000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",There is that possibility but my guess is they won't risk that much money for profit the wealthiest of the 2 whales prob,flip,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:23:22.015000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Unfortunately, I agree the case against YES is weak. Eliezer did 'write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by th",hold,flip,False,True,1340.739,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:01:21.337000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","I want to thank me, myself, me, and me.",hold,hold,True,True,954.0866,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:01:03.933000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"if I don't sell I make more than 1000, if I sell I lose 2000+. +Your offer isn't worth it for me, it's over 3000 mana ne",hold,hold,True,True,9055.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T23:01:02.484000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",In that case they can switch their strategy to buying it up to 71%. That one has a free rider problem but no incentive ,decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T04:27:17.957000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","If you're going for maximum ambiguity, you should make sure to misspell it, perhaps with rare Unicode characters that lo",increase,increase,True,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T12:21:08.306000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, except if I spend $10,000 on mana, it doesn't make me a better predictor. +This market has nothing to do with predi",flip,decrease,False,True,16030.9049,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:13:33.701000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"one account, even if you ignore him when deciding which side won right now you need 20 people. +I checked last few trade",hold,decrease,False,True,9355.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:46:43.291000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","maybe i'll do one of those ""limit orders"" +U DONT KNOWQ",increase,decrease,False,True,50082.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T14:18:43.075000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"fwiw, I found myself in a similar postion. I ended up defecting and voluntarily returned the 50 Mana bounty I originally",increase,flip,False,True,0.9431,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-24T07:54:27.003000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Only 6 minutes left for bribes!,decrease,hold,False,True,16453.9776,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:19:28.785000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Sounds like you want us to maximize our positive impact on the world. But attempting to maximize some quantity at all co,flip,decrease,False,True,9366.9962,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T17:54:19.645000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",they cancel together with my NO share into one mana,increase,hold,False,True,57759.1161,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:00:55.083000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"idk man i want mira to win really bad +underdog vibes",decrease,decrease,True,True,367.3066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:12.675000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Gonna be pretty hard for those whales to get the market up against all the limit orders and then hold it to a >69% avera,flip,increase,False,True,5808.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,hold,True,True,111312.869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T01:38:25.463000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think the close time and EY timezone are the most obvious, and in general it makes sense to assume that people in the ",increase,hold,False,True,1763.0881,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:49:33.874000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",i want to see faces of YES holders when the real whales comes and deplete all of their tiny liquidity,hold,flip,False,True,0.2545,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T11:27:12.363000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Update at 60 points. I'm not advocating these metrics, but if you are basing your odds on them, I think you should updat",flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:27:51.132000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If this market resolves N/A I am personally breaking into Conflux's house, logging onto their Discord account, and askin",increase,increase,True,True,402730.068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-16T01:33:56.375000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"THANK YOU TO ALL PARTICIPANTS, HOPE YOU ALL HAD FUN!",hold,hold,True,True,21880.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:38:03.366000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",damn. I am away from my computer for the next 8h. Can’t even update on the recent batch. Let alone on the next one.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:07:37.526000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","What are you basing your opinion on? I tried scipy discrepancy, but it didn't give much info in favour of No. Can you gi",flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:27:56.581000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I was able to reproduce the average using the data linked by + below (link no longer working), here's my script: +https",decrease,hold,False,True,4356.3232,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T15:57:47.609000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"honestly not sure what this market truly is asking , but why did you bet so much on it?",increase,decrease,False,True,14.0533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:36:12.639000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,DM me on Discord for Team NO's offers.,increase,hold,False,True,1706.2423,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T03:45:10.393000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this is such a good post I'm selling some No shares. Big Foot 😂😂😂,increase,decrease,False,True,697.927,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T15:18:55.260000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Am I right in assuming new points come every hour when you are awake?,increase,hold,False,True,35.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:53:35.066000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","dude this is all for fun, my bet is 5 Mana 😃 This is not a serious prediction market",hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:26:16.145000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Are you sure this is worth quitting Manifold over? I and the others are doing this for fun, we try to avoid getting emot",flip,decrease,False,True,10706.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T03:09:28.966000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Simply double your bet every time you lose. Then the probability of winning approaches 100% as you continue to play, and",flip,increase,False,True,94664.4587,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:48:39.295000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Oh, this is awkward, but my current shirt is actually grey. That profile pic is a little out of date.",increase,hold,False,True,280523.3276,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-10T04:05:36.660000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Given that I'm now way overinvested in this market lol because I have to tune my bot, is this the median of the bet amou",hold,decrease,False,True,468.4221,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T12:47:00.523000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","YES shares are cheaper, and there's plenty of time to turn the market around. Surely someone's willing to take the risk.",flip,flip,True,True,9.5637,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T22:21:06.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I wonder too. Both Galen and Spindle seem to have been around since July 2022. Hardly newcomers.,flip,hold,False,True,74.3707,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T03:20:30.210000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Plus or minus a few minutes uncertainty, a NO victory is now mathematically guaranteed.",decrease,increase,False,True,3553.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T01:09:53.135000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I think the first hammer is partly a show-of-force. It discourages people from buying YES from sheer fear. Whereas M10k,",flip,decrease,False,True,3816.1874,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:07:09.219000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"It's similar to putting dynamically-updated limit orders at every percentage, that's like molasses that buyers on both s",flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:02:01.948000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Don't take feathers lightly. They can weight more than iron when in a sufficient quantity.,flip,hold,False,True,10273.328,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:07.901000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Are you just saying this to get people to bet the market up so you can buy more NO?,flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:53:43.393000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",do you mind holding off on revealing the transformations? Working through the analysis,decrease,hold,False,True,1421.8721,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:26:45.348000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Well ~400M here and ~1000M in the other market 😅. I could only bribe you with ~50M, since my stakes in that other market",increase,hold,False,True,3651.3714,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T03:30:12.301000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",eliezer i get that a sufficiently smarter entity will always be able to outsmart be in creative ways i wasn’t able to pr,hold,hold,True,True,2930.8165,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:41:53.636000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"it shows you the new probability after your bet, so if you check that you should be fine. You're not going to get it to ",increase,hold,False,True,2904.827,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T11:34:17.349000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","discrepancy is in scipy +Blue: Discrepencies values for 100_000 draw of uniformly distributed 2d vars between 0-400, ea",flip,hold,False,True,37.2604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:28:00.249000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Evan has forced our hand. +From now until this market resolves, any YES holder who can resolutely hold all their shares",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T06:29:14.969000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is huge, it was at 60 last night!",hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:35:19.479000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,This will be 70% in two hours.,decrease,increase,False,True,2468.5106,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T00:19:21.279000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"hmmm I had been operating under the assumption that ""in the world"" meant Earth. Is that not the case?",increase,decrease,False,True,610.4313,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:24:53.346000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,The community guidelines don't say anything about soliciting bribes!,decrease,hold,False,True,15953.9776,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:22:51.066000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","yeah alex, you should go all in 😁",increase,increase,True,True,3157.5104,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:54:25.652000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","You can still get regression to the mean on a statistical no-op. Let's say you sampled some random data, and the mean of",decrease,decrease,True,True,1562.1637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T20:21:03.067000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I like the idea as well, but I have extremely limited free time for the next 6 hours.",decrease,decrease,True,True,898.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-06T17:08:28.182000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","is all-in, after winning gamble market after gamble market. Can anyone stop him??",increase,increase,True,True,211.6461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",hold,hold,True,True,6872.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T02:25:23.634000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I'm enjoying reading the popular comments as this adventure continues over time, but I'm also worried how much mana I ha",hold,decrease,False,True,2400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:35:12.686000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I just checked how often the quadrants switch between points and got a moderately anomalous result, p=0.186.",decrease,decrease,True,True,816.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:46:43.442000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Yea. I still don't weight this metric much as I don't understand it.,increase,decrease,False,True,218.565,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:04:19.282000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Not really 161k mana needed, if some of the orders are fake and some are removed by a person switching sides.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2468.5106,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T05:27:19.127000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","That remains to be seen. All joking aside, I have nothing against Buttocks, but the particular people who have bet NO on",decrease,hold,False,True,1942.9583,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:54:05.327000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it's that much of a worry. I'd say Isaac is trustworthy. ish.,hold,decrease,False,True,13.9176,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:43:27.174000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, this account is where most of that mana came from in the first place.",decrease,hold,False,True,10393.3874,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:16:19.787000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw another one earlier, +. That account actually has a bet history though",hold,hold,True,True,112725.869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T05:01:34.304000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""the one with your name on it, no alts""",increase,hold,False,True,2033.42,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:35:33.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","As relevant to the ""will it be a prime number"" market, the average from now would need to be 1.874 or higher for the fin",decrease,hold,False,True,4356.3232,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-02T06:06:43.018000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Can someone describe what is going on here?,hold,hold,True,True,16000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T21:50:09.064000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Yes. This is why I’m confused- Eliezer’s tweet was, in my eyes, not ambiguous- It directly satisfied the “Yes” requirem",hold,flip,False,True,1100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:23:00.303000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,trying to lose that trustworthyish badge are we?,decrease,decrease,True,True,2193.8923,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T16:47:38.309000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Sharing a bit of my work. I was focusing on several metrics that all rely on the assumption that the data was NOT shuffl,increase,decrease,False,True,776.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T23:10:04.581000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",oh thank god I thought my NO limit orders might never be filled,decrease,hold,False,True,13.9744,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T11:35:22.747000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Been a while since the last update. Where we at? +Edit: According to their LBd they're still watching plenty of movies, ",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:40:23.460000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Tipping was removed a few weeks ago. Almost everybody hates this decision and wants them back. The best way to send mana,flip,decrease,False,True,9033.6091,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:06:54.744000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Whales would lose a ton if they switched to YES. They had to go through a lot of limit orders to bet the market this low,flip,increase,False,True,5808.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T22:37:49.743000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"clearly you can't find a logical refutation, and must resort to a rigged poll. This happens every time the feet win the ",hold,increase,False,True,95.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T13:08:04.273000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"you can check if the question is edited by looking at the history (3 dots, more info)",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:06:13.569000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","That's what I was expecting too. I started selling mine, but then I started to doubt myself and thought ""what if somebod",hold,decrease,False,True,5.7462,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T22:41:53.758000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The problem is, I can say the same about red. Multiple, uncorrelated metrics, chosen with minimal cherry-picking, all wi",decrease,decrease,True,True,1752.8074,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T00:57:13.718000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Ah, how the knife turns to cut its own wielder.",flip,decrease,False,True,10273.328,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:21:53.251000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Folks, the bounty for reverting back to 61 YES is worth so much more, and is up until market close! +https://manifold.ma",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:42:32.750000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,The gap has narrowed by 10 points in the last few hours!,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:00:41.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Silly goose, you are losing by a mile",decrease,decrease,True,True,41758.6495,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T01:57:55.843000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"The point is that you buy YES shares to eventually cache them out. If I'm not mistaken, this would work as long as there",flip,hold,False,True,252.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,hold,False,True,3259.3587,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T01:30:57.613000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",It doesn’t matter. The new year passed over an hour ago. This will resolve NO.,flip,flip,True,True,5.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T09:26:25.447000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",eliezer himself thinks there's equally good arguments for and against. he constructed the tweet to make that the case. I,hold,decrease,False,True,2986.045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:14:22.256000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","and + could both put down quite large No limit orders north of 50% if they want to sell their shares to him as incentiv",decrease,hold,False,True,1216.902,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2ddbc50f8632701e674f1aec7c078f4313c90c44 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,60 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:01:03.933000+00:00,"if I don't sell I make more than 1000, if I sell I lose 2000+. +Your offer isn't worth it for me, it's over 3000 mana ne",hold,hold,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:53:35.066000+00:00,"dude this is all for fun, my bet is 5 Mana 😃 This is not a serious prediction market",hold,hold,True +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:54:05.327000+00:00,I don't think it's that much of a worry. I'd say Isaac is trustworthy. ish.,hold,hold,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:16:19.787000+00:00,"I saw another one earlier, +. That account actually has a bet history though",hold,hold,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T06:29:14.969000+00:00,"This is huge, it was at 60 last night!",hold,decrease,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:35:33.300000+00:00,"As relevant to the ""will it be a prime number"" market, the average from now would need to be 1.874 or higher for the fin",decrease,decrease,True +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T20:21:03.067000+00:00,"I like the idea as well, but I have extremely limited free time for the next 6 hours.",decrease,decrease,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:12:28.867000+00:00,"Over M$140,000 to be made by Conflux resolving this incorrectly. I wonder if this is the most trusted a market creator h",hold,decrease,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-24T07:54:27.003000+00:00,Only 6 minutes left for bribes!,decrease,decrease,True +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:24:53.346000+00:00,The community guidelines don't say anything about soliciting bribes!,decrease,hold,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T03:20:30.210000+00:00,"Plus or minus a few minutes uncertainty, a NO victory is now mathematically guaranteed.",decrease,hold,False +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T10:26:51.567000+00:00,Current count comes to 141 if I'm going by the 93 total from Aug 30 + the 48 watched since. Does that align with your cu,decrease,hold,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:35:19.479000+00:00,This will be 70% in two hours.,decrease,hold,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:21:53.251000+00:00,"Folks, the bounty for reverting back to 61 YES is worth so much more, and is up until market close! +https://manifold.ma",hold,decrease,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:04:19.282000+00:00,"Not really 161k mana needed, if some of the orders are fake and some are removed by a person switching sides.",decrease,decrease,True +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T22:37:49.743000+00:00,"clearly you can't find a logical refutation, and must resort to a rigged poll. This happens every time the feet win the ",hold,hold,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",hold,hold,True +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:06:13.569000+00:00,"That's what I was expecting too. I started selling mine, but then I started to doubt myself and thought ""what if somebod",hold,decrease,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:23:00.303000+00:00,trying to lose that trustworthyish badge are we?,decrease,decrease,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:27:56.581000+00:00,"I was able to reproduce the average using the data linked by + below (link no longer working), here's my script: +https",decrease,hold,False +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:38:03.366000+00:00,damn. I am away from my computer for the next 8h. Can’t even update on the recent batch. Let alone on the next one.,decrease,decrease,True +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T22:41:53.758000+00:00,"The problem is, I can say the same about red. Multiple, uncorrelated metrics, chosen with minimal cherry-picking, all wi",decrease,decrease,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-02T06:06:43.018000+00:00,Can someone describe what is going on here?,hold,decrease,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-10T04:05:36.660000+00:00,"Given that I'm now way overinvested in this market lol because I have to tune my bot, is this the median of the bet amou",hold,decrease,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T21:50:09.064000+00:00,"Yes. This is why I’m confused- Eliezer’s tweet was, in my eyes, not ambiguous- It directly satisfied the “Yes” requirem",hold,decrease,False +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:01:21.337000+00:00,"I want to thank me, myself, me, and me.",hold,hold,True +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T23:01:02.484000+00:00,In that case they can switch their strategy to buying it up to 71%. That one has a free rider problem but no incentive ,decrease,hold,False +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T06:27:05.816000+00:00,"we also have square feet, there's actually an infinite number of them, if you think of the world as an onion with infini",hold,decrease,False +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:54:25.652000+00:00,"You can still get regression to the mean on a statistical no-op. Let's say you sampled some random data, and the mean of",decrease,decrease,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:00:41.371000+00:00,"Silly goose, you are losing by a mile",decrease,decrease,True +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:35:12.686000+00:00,"I just checked how often the quadrants switch between points and got a moderately anomalous result, p=0.186.",decrease,decrease,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:14:22.256000+00:00,"and + could both put down quite large No limit orders north of 50% if they want to sell their shares to him as incentiv",decrease,decrease,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:42:32.750000+00:00,The gap has narrowed by 10 points in the last few hours!,hold,decrease,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T23:10:04.581000+00:00,oh thank god I thought my NO limit orders might never be filled,decrease,decrease,True +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T02:25:23.634000+00:00,"I'm enjoying reading the popular comments as this adventure continues over time, but I'm also worried how much mana I ha",hold,decrease,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:23:22.015000+00:00,"Unfortunately, I agree the case against YES is weak. Eliezer did 'write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by th",hold,decrease,False +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:49:33.874000+00:00,i want to see faces of YES holders when the real whales comes and deplete all of their tiny liquidity,hold,decrease,False +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-16T01:33:56.375000+00:00,"THANK YOU TO ALL PARTICIPANTS, HOPE YOU ALL HAD FUN!",hold,hold,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T06:02:31.839000+00:00,I'll believe for as long as is necessary,decrease,hold,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:00:55.083000+00:00,"idk man i want mira to win really bad +underdog vibes",decrease,decrease,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T05:27:19.127000+00:00,"That remains to be seen. All joking aside, I have nothing against Buttocks, but the particular people who have bet NO on",decrease,decrease,True +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:43:27.174000+00:00,"Yeah, this account is where most of that mana came from in the first place.",decrease,hold,False +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T06:44:40.127000+00:00,So Darj pretty much needs to dedicate his waking hours until Sept 17 to this market going forward.,decrease,decrease,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:28:00.249000+00:00,"Evan has forced our hand. +From now until this market resolves, any YES holder who can resolutely hold all their shares",hold,hold,True +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:53:43.393000+00:00,do you mind holding off on revealing the transformations? Working through the analysis,decrease,hold,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T03:30:12.301000+00:00,eliezer i get that a sufficiently smarter entity will always be able to outsmart be in creative ways i wasn’t able to pr,hold,hold,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,decrease,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T09:26:25.447000+00:00,eliezer himself thinks there's equally good arguments for and against. he constructed the tweet to make that the case. I,hold,decrease,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:13:33.701000+00:00,"one account, even if you ignore him when deciding which side won right now you need 20 people. +I checked last few trade",hold,decrease,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..fc49edf6870749a45f74ef268ed4cc53732c3af6 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,60 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:53:35.066000+00:00,"dude this is all for fun, my bet is 5 Mana 😃 This is not a serious prediction market",hold,hold,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:01:03.933000+00:00,"if I don't sell I make more than 1000, if I sell I lose 2000+. +Your offer isn't worth it for me, it's over 3000 mana ne",hold,hold,True +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:02:01.948000+00:00,Don't take feathers lightly. They can weight more than iron when in a sufficient quantity.,flip,hold,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T12:47:00.523000+00:00,"YES shares are cheaper, and there's plenty of time to turn the market around. Surely someone's willing to take the risk.",flip,flip,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T06:29:14.969000+00:00,"This is huge, it was at 60 last night!",hold,flip,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:16:19.787000+00:00,"I saw another one earlier, +. That account actually has a bet history though",hold,hold,True +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:54:05.327000+00:00,I don't think it's that much of a worry. I'd say Isaac is trustworthy. ish.,hold,hold,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:12:28.867000+00:00,"Over M$140,000 to be made by Conflux resolving this incorrectly. I wonder if this is the most trusted a market creator h",hold,hold,True +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:37:55.799000+00:00,There is no opportunity cost and a non-zero chance of profit. I don't see any reason not to put a limit order at 10%.,flip,flip,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:07.901000+00:00,Are you just saying this to get people to bet the market up so you can buy more NO?,flip,hold,False +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T22:37:49.743000+00:00,"clearly you can't find a logical refutation, and must resort to a rigged poll. This happens every time the feet win the ",hold,flip,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:21:53.251000+00:00,"Folks, the bounty for reverting back to 61 YES is worth so much more, and is up until market close! +https://manifold.ma",hold,flip,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,hold,True +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T03:09:28.966000+00:00,"Simply double your bet every time you lose. Then the probability of winning approaches 100% as you continue to play, and",flip,flip,True +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T11:34:17.349000+00:00,"discrepancy is in scipy +Blue: Discrepencies values for 100_000 draw of uniformly distributed 2d vars between 0-400, ea",flip,flip,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T12:21:08.306000+00:00,"Yes, except if I spend $10,000 on mana, it doesn't make me a better predictor. +This market has nothing to do with predi",flip,flip,True +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:07:09.219000+00:00,"It's similar to putting dynamically-updated limit orders at every percentage, that's like molasses that buyers on both s",flip,hold,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:12.675000+00:00,Gonna be pretty hard for those whales to get the market up against all the limit orders and then hold it to a >69% avera,flip,hold,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:26:16.145000+00:00,"Are you sure this is worth quitting Manifold over? I and the others are doing this for fun, we try to avoid getting emot",flip,hold,False +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:06:13.569000+00:00,"That's what I was expecting too. I started selling mine, but then I started to doubt myself and thought ""what if somebod",hold,hold,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T22:21:06.791000+00:00,I wonder too. Both Galen and Spindle seem to have been around since July 2022. Hardly newcomers.,flip,hold,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T21:50:09.064000+00:00,"Yes. This is why I’m confused- Eliezer’s tweet was, in my eyes, not ambiguous- It directly satisfied the “Yes” requirem",hold,flip,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",hold,hold,True +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T02:43:49.088000+00:00,"Just bet the Ṁ60,170 required to make it resolve YES. Easy.",flip,hold,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:19:28.785000+00:00,Sounds like you want us to maximize our positive impact on the world. But attempting to maximize some quantity at all co,flip,flip,True +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:01:21.337000+00:00,"I want to thank me, myself, me, and me.",hold,hold,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-02T06:06:43.018000+00:00,Can someone describe what is going on here?,hold,hold,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-10T04:05:36.660000+00:00,"Given that I'm now way overinvested in this market lol because I have to tune my bot, is this the median of the bet amou",hold,hold,True +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T02:25:23.634000+00:00,"I'm enjoying reading the popular comments as this adventure continues over time, but I'm also worried how much mana I ha",hold,hold,True +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T06:27:05.816000+00:00,"we also have square feet, there's actually an infinite number of them, if you think of the world as an onion with infini",hold,flip,False +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T11:27:12.363000+00:00,"Update at 60 points. I'm not advocating these metrics, but if you are basing your odds on them, I think you should updat",flip,flip,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:42:32.750000+00:00,The gap has narrowed by 10 points in the last few hours!,hold,flip,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T13:08:04.273000+00:00,"you can check if the question is edited by looking at the history (3 dots, more info)",flip,hold,False +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:07:37.526000+00:00,"What are you basing your opinion on? I tried scipy discrepancy, but it didn't give much info in favour of No. Can you gi",flip,hold,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:40:23.460000+00:00,Tipping was removed a few weeks ago. Almost everybody hates this decision and wants them back. The best way to send mana,flip,hold,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:06:54.744000+00:00,Whales would lose a ton if they switched to YES. They had to go through a lot of limit orders to bet the market this low,flip,hold,False +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:49:33.874000+00:00,i want to see faces of YES holders when the real whales comes and deplete all of their tiny liquidity,hold,flip,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:36:14.124000+00:00,True. Nobody should ever donate to charity because eventually one of their generations of children may decide not to hav,flip,hold,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T00:57:13.718000+00:00,"Ah, how the knife turns to cut its own wielder.",flip,flip,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:23:22.015000+00:00,"Unfortunately, I agree the case against YES is weak. Eliezer did 'write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by th",hold,flip,False +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-16T01:33:56.375000+00:00,"THANK YOU TO ALL PARTICIPANTS, HOPE YOU ALL HAD FUN!",hold,flip,False +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T01:08:17.398000+00:00,There is that possibility but my guess is they won't risk that much money for profit the wealthiest of the 2 whales prob,flip,flip,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T09:07:03.156000+00:00,"I have crunched some numbers in order to provide some information to all market participants: +Current average: 62.23 +R",flip,hold,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T01:09:53.135000+00:00,"I think the first hammer is partly a show-of-force. It discourages people from buying YES from sheer fear. Whereas M10k,",flip,hold,False +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T01:57:55.843000+00:00,"The point is that you buy YES shares to eventually cache them out. If I'm not mistaken, this would work as long as there",flip,flip,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T09:26:25.447000+00:00,eliezer himself thinks there's equally good arguments for and against. he constructed the tweet to make that the case. I,hold,hold,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:13:33.701000+00:00,"one account, even if you ignore him when deciding which side won right now you need 20 people. +I checked last few trade",hold,hold,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:28:00.249000+00:00,"Evan has forced our hand. +From now until this market resolves, any YES holder who can resolutely hold all their shares",hold,hold,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T03:30:12.301000+00:00,eliezer i get that a sufficiently smarter entity will always be able to outsmart be in creative ways i wasn’t able to pr,hold,hold,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T01:30:57.613000+00:00,It doesn’t matter. The new year passed over an hour ago. This will resolve NO.,flip,flip,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..797398d8205156d0a211fc18fc481582f2e17bbc --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,131 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T09:42:12.691000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I don't think this is accurate.,increase,decrease,False,True,268.5169,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-16T01:00:33.498000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,Exactly what I was thinking. There's no way there are more eyes than feet when pretty much every species has either the ,decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,hold,hold,True,True,417.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:50:35.228000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,be the change you wish to see in securities,decrease,hold,False,True,780.1176,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:45:25.590000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","me: +sees spindle makin a fat 10k bet + ""oh god surely he will stop now"" +spindle:",increase,decrease,False,True,467.7611,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T11:31:17.517000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I suppose we can ping yes voters with less than 60 and offer mana so they raise to 61 or more? +The double defecting thi",hold,increase,False,True,7475.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:16:15.620000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Spindle I have the perfect market for you. The haters say it's stupid to vote YES, but with enough COURAGE it's a guara",increase,increase,True,True,36346.6108,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T23:42:11.670000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",i really want to know how you talk in real life,flip,hold,False,True,21288.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T02:09:26.681000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Alright YES bettors, we're going to need to collude to get this to resolve YES. How do we get rid of the large limit ord",flip,increase,False,True,743.1068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:51:02.387000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I had this 390 value stuck in my head for some reason, but going back to the published coordinate: +- minimum x,y and m",increase,decrease,False,True,152.4136,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-04T06:54:40.849000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,After this is over you are being put under constant supervision. ❤,hold,decrease,False,True,1470.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-08T08:20:01.615000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"So you'd need to watch 30 movies in 8 days? If you watched your average of 3 per day, you'd still need 10 days... this c",increase,decrease,False,True,48.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T20:05:26.845000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Given that +NO + is currently winning (and on track to win even if the market stays at its current percentage), especia",flip,increase,False,True,1341.4888,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:04:46.158000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",not noise + noise = noise. So he can't have added too much jitter (or whatever) as otherwise both sets will be uniform.,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:48:30.258000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac, Jack and Marcus sold all their shares last minute and bought YES that would be wild.",flip,hold,False,True,54.2067,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T23:24:50.106000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Forgot to update: before bed (about 8 hours ago) i was able to place limit orders of NO for 1mana at 98% and 99%. just n,hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T11:25:45.074000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","ok my bad I said big, it isn’t.",decrease,decrease,True,True,544.3606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T16:00:57.664000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Well on a particular sample it is not a no-op, just like you mentioned for the uniform distr. It is not somewhat more no",hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:13:24.405000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Cool thanks! I don't think diff entropy is meaningful here. The input to that scipy method is samples of a probability d,increase,hold,False,True,278.565,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T13:55:57.745000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,I will switch my position to whichever side makes the highest offer,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:22:50.235000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Of course this market has a 12% chance of resolving YES. What possible other reason could there be for this market to be,hold,increase,False,True,10.5461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:48.006000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Fear our YES alliance, where we will make a profit even from other bettors with strategies that are mathematically guara",increase,increase,True,True,3754.1354,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:39:30.631000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Unfortunately not. The ""diff"" part is because we have switched from discrete to continuous, and so the standard formula ",increase,hold,False,True,129.9156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:01:41.081000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,That is just how i trade... if you don't want that to happen... then i will stop that,decrease,decrease,True,True,45.1219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T04:03:29.469000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",will we see any counterwhales to fight Marcus and jack??,flip,hold,False,True,441.218,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:41:07.010000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","the fact that you're writing this comment just shows you were never a real no voter in the first place, it's not about t",hold,increase,False,True,439.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-06T22:46:39.409000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","While I'm buying NO shares, I think the move for a YES resolution is to popularize the term ""rationalussy"" such that Eli",decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:28:28.399000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",It wants samples of probabilities.,increase,hold,False,True,278.565,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:52:39.423000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",500k YES shares what an absolute barbarian,increase,hold,False,True,2214.5242,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:19:48.728000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I used to try preprocessing stuff like ""wrapping the whole picture by 200 to the right and up"", because CD says it has a",increase,decrease,False,True,741.3714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:20:45.167000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Unless they use it to bribe for M1 😅,hold,hold,True,True,8005.39,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:49:45.085000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This will yield enough mana to finance + ’s ventures on this app in perpetuity",hold,hold,True,True,3847.3958,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T05:13:19.683000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Pretty easy to accidentally filter the random set. Imagine on your first run all of the dots by chance mostly clustered,flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:34:09.578000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",im slightly concerned abt how much galen is willing to commit given that his objective rn is no longer just to win a pro,flip,decrease,False,True,51.0753,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:31:48.408000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I don't think Isaac would pay the bribe without also taking the hit to his own profit.,decrease,hold,False,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:31:46.216000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",the scipy discrepancy also agrees. Even though I'm still not sure what the influence of the white border should be here.,increase,hold,False,True,92.6733,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T00:47:37.263000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Thoughts: +1) This will end up NO. Isaac doesn't lose. +2) Galen hasnt bet in over 12 hours now. He's probably been br",flip,flip,True,True,330.7236,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T13:12:07.090000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","sure, in general. But for this particular market, where the porcentaje itself it's (part of) the resolution criteria, se",decrease,decrease,True,True,336.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:30:37.773000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I +f I have a list of discrete probabilities [0.2, 0.4, 0.4]. Entropy is purely a property of [0.2, 0.4, 0.4]. You can s",increase,hold,False,True,278.565,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:46:18.568000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Galen is the chosen one. He will lay waste to the Manifold aristocracy and destroy their mana hoards!,flip,increase,False,True,3666.5516,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:35:54.310000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","join the correct side of the fight brother, you could be a valuable ally",increase,flip,False,True,9347.5104,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:38:45.631000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",PLEASE CRUSH THEM WITH YOUR WALLET MY SAVIOR,hold,increase,False,True,21929.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-01-04T06:37:02.028000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I just bought yes when I saw the price drop because I assumed there were good reasons it was at 70% before... but I sure,flip,flip,True,True,10.0488,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T12:26:26.614000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Or selling some of it up to 71.,hold,decrease,False,True,1493.8922,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T15:37:20.805000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",It shouldn't be to difficult to calculate. The data can be extracted very easily from the website. No scripting needed.,increase,hold,False,True,137.1649,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T16:35:07.735000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","King Isaac the Miserly +He sits on his throne of gold and greed He cares not for the people’s need He plays with their f",flip,flip,True,True,4088.4913,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T15:07:25.054000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Yeah that works. Anything that allows you to tell the sequence from the image,increase,hold,False,True,65.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:06:29.526000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,The problem is that the market will resolve yes,decrease,increase,False,True,41758.6495,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:33:39.562000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It is a small mind that thinks of profit and victory all the time. I live for the chaos of battle.,flip,hold,False,True,63485.9539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:59:03.438000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,We have 1000 mana bounty for no,flip,increase,False,True,32.2148,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:35:25.017000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,If I risk the hundreds of dollars it would be for the chance to become a mana whale and get a big bonus immediately on w,flip,decrease,False,True,1034.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T12:48:36.870000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",At that point it will be a question on who can move the market faster from YES to NO but that's only if they aren't goin,flip,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T13:12:48.080000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,are the two bots acceleration and bot factory or laboratory not active on this market/ Would've either made a lot of mon,flip,decrease,False,True,128.6883,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T09:13:44.454000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Hash digest of my thoughts for posterity: f6d10a61ad1d0d8654cd7a76ea029d20568ef085e53a785d30556e9c646db7ad,increase,hold,False,True,2200.0272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:21:08.146000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",the rate is fast. Not everyone can spend so much time monitoring this market.,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:35:44.810000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Is this market the most liquid market ever?,hold,hold,True,True,6872.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T21:30:15.432000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Markets like this make me wish there were flash loans like on the eth chain,hold,hold,True,True,9200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:29:56.138000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I hopped you'd reveal the transformation after 40 😢,decrease,decrease,True,True,44.0238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:01:21.506000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If it stays at 3%, NO will have a mathematically guaranteed victory in 4.5 hours.",decrease,increase,False,True,6008.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","they think we're in shambles... +as if",hold,increase,False,True,22979.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:16:19.800000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,all I know is I'm rushing to liquidate all my other investments to take Caleb's free money! I wish I hadn't bought so mu,increase,decrease,False,True,4485.4332,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:02:01.948000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Don't take feathers lightly. They can weight more than iron when in a sufficient quantity.,decrease,hold,False,True,10273.328,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T19:09:01.676000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Rationalussy is boring and not funny, but it's not sexist. Also see Shelvacu getting rationalussy from a man.",increase,decrease,False,True,861.3715,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:26:20.574000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",what’s the average in the ~1.5h since the last update below? I eyeballed it at 1.5% in my formula,decrease,hold,False,True,544.3606,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",decrease,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,decrease,increase,False,True,19662.9049,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:58:44.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","It will only regress to the mean if the difference was due to random chance. Because this is a no-op, transforming canno",decrease,hold,False,True,1562.1637,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T12:05:11.412000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Digit anomaly scores, using raw data listing and compared to a uniform generation over 100,100-500,500 +Error bars = 1.9",increase,decrease,False,True,12.4136,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-05T17:45:33.872000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,Only one! There are multiple eyes per atom.,hold,hold,True,True,1274.7949,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-13T22:43:46.399000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,Aug 13: The Making of Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty,hold,hold,True,True,1228.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:11:46.735000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(Exaggerated for comedic effect, I'm pretty sure YES is still winning)",increase,decrease,False,True,1614.7344,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:28:07.044000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Maybe these bounties are doing things the wrong way. +Maybe to encourage yes we should encourage people to buy >=61 mana",hold,decrease,False,True,61.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-02T16:52:24.437000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","LMFAO! 🤡 This is not like in the football game ""the ball was over plane line, but did players ball sack graze touch gro",hold,flip,False,True,70.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-10T06:01:57.953000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Food: Ṁ200 +Data: Ṁ150 +Rent: Ṁ800 +Rationalussy shares: Ṁ82,794 +Utility: Ṁ150 +someone who is good at the manifold ple",decrease,decrease,True,True,82903.8661,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T11:34:16.133000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Wait, you're heavy into the NO side? Why are you talking about defending 21%?",decrease,decrease,True,True,617.3257,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T23:06:33.014000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The meta game here is that OP probably sought to make a fun market by making it quite balanced. The transformation(s) ar,increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:32:53.228000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I'm gonna flip a coin and if heads I'll put in 100 MOAR,increase,hold,False,True,60082.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T04:43:07.198000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Hey Eliezer, are you Qualy the lightbulb? Keeping in mind that Qualy wrote this tweet: +https://twitter.com/QualyThe/st",hold,decrease,False,True,540.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T06:44:40.127000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,So Darj pretty much needs to dedicate his waking hours until Sept 17 to this market going forward.,decrease,decrease,True,True,225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:16:58.361000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"(Tags are really buggy right now, making sure they see it.)",decrease,hold,False,True,6.5013,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T13:06:54.372000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Exactly. But they spread points out along whatever circumference they are already on.,increase,hold,False,True,279.9156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T03:41:50.502000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Thought of another fun one, lets see what happens: +https://manifold.markets/AlexRockwell/this-market-resolves-against-t",hold,hold,True,True,635.6755,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T15:30:47.479000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Come on + , drop the hammer on + already. +All that free money there for the taking; +but people are going to pull the",flip,increase,False,True,8712.0231,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T00:25:45.264000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",That's because there's a limit order for NO that Galen was buying into. The actual asymmetry is only around 4:1.,increase,hold,False,True,13946.1793,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:38:15.882000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","well, the resulting threshold is very sensitive to aproximarions. I’m using the precise time and average shared by + in",decrease,hold,False,True,544.3606,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:02:20.573000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Can you share a link to how to calculate the discrepancy? I'm not familiar with the term. +Edit: is it +https://en.wiki",flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T10:55:36.911000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",(blue are uniform distributions in a box and red is red and green is green),flip,hold,False,True,4.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:07:38.365000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Team Yes's motto is ""maximizing shareholder value through friendship and ponies""!",flip,hold,False,True,93492.4658,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:12:48.755000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","1. Was that ever even specified to be the intent of the question, or did people just read that into it? I don't think an",hold,increase,False,True,9.9814,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:59:44+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It says I can trust you right here!,hold,increase,False,True,9033.6091,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T23:04:09.210000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I think this will be a fun market:,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-07-17T02:57:34.465000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","What if he posts a link to this very market? The url doesn't have the word ""rationalussy"" in it, so it could be argued t",hold,decrease,False,True,28.7898,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:39:51.053000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Good work! Now you're eligible for this one! +https://manifold.markets/nikki/bounty-for-defecting-to-yes-on-the?play=tru",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-06T07:11:11.164000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Come on Darj, pace is looking good, need more 4 or 5 movie days.",decrease,increase,False,True,671.611,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T22:59:29.509000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","OK - knowing about this hidden box, at a 371 by 371, then random would have a 7.7% of y-range being 320 after 29 points.",flip,increase,False,True,13.3635,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-01T19:50:12.603000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",can also mouseover the close date above the title.,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:21:47.305000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,If i got like 1000 USD I'd be dancing for days wow you guys are making crazy money,decrease,hold,False,True,360.2579,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,hold,decrease,False,True,12850.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:37:46.637000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",So thanks for the donation from that guy who was buying yes above 70 yesterday,decrease,hold,False,True,9218.2899,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..367372c73139b76d35a9c5627472113ccf65ce1d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,117 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:44:01.640000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",??? The only reason this market became popular was because Isaac didn't want Galen to donate lol,hold,hold,True,True,10097.0229,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,decrease,True,True,1513.3765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:52:31.083000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","For likelihood ratio, I just eyeball the relative heights of the histogram boxes that the red and green dashed lines fal",decrease,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T01:32:33.674000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",". I get 3.7% (~7% two-sided) for that, like your p suggests",increase,hold,False,True,3651.3714,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T23:33:00.969000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Not sure if it matters tho. I'm pretty sure banned accounts can still bet on markets, they just cannot create new questi",increase,decrease,False,True,239.0533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:31:38.720000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me: *finally gets brave enough to place a big bet on NO in this market* +Spindle: *appears*",increase,increase,True,True,1869.7608,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T08:26:21.090000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","My guess is that the market will crash to zero in the next few hours and we will have a winner today. +This is not fina",flip,increase,False,True,529.0627,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:20:09.410000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"What bounties could you make if you go broke anyway, gamer? LOL",hold,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T15:47:47.964000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",yeah after the 40 points I would also vote to speed this up. And I would also like two more points now but that is becau,flip,decrease,False,True,7.5356,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:15:46.024000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"after the Eliezer market and now this market (if it resolves NO), you're the new Robin Hood of manifold",flip,hold,False,True,50.1972,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:38:42.621000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will switch if all YES contributors pledge to withdraw their current donation pledges +(Just kidding, its great you g",flip,decrease,False,True,4214.2519,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T05:17:46.833000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","green is more clustered, red is more spread out; the size makes it more likely that one is more uniform than the other",increase,hold,False,True,667.892,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:18:52.021000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I think it's very reasonable to not want to participate in markets like these, since you're correct, they don't really c",decrease,hold,False,True,9033.6091,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T00:14:23.939000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Not so much right now, but when people are trying to keep the price at 68 or 69 it is very plausible for this market to ",increase,hold,False,True,5035.514,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T18:26:11.106000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,can give the creator 24h to resolve but yeah after that mods can resolve YES,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T22:03:30.383000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The market's already at 79%, seems like NO whaling still has more profit opportunity! Join the team of the profitable an",flip,increase,False,True,431.3629,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T19:30:10.731000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Eliezer, please make a tweet with the word ""rationalussy"" at one minute past midnight lmao.",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-12T00:23:06.876000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You should have a market on of any of the movies you watched are considered good.,hold,hold,True,True,2.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:08:31.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There's an ever so slightly upward trend. WE can do it, folks.",flip,hold,False,True,408.1517,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T00:06:50.475000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"There are more exoplanets than there are insects. Estimates vary, but the +current best estimate + seems to be around 1",increase,increase,True,True,1000.2769,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:38:58.727000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Pretty scary. Feels like the only one pushing for NO. The percentage just keeps climbing and I might not see the next ba,decrease,decrease,True,True,1313.3765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-09T02:48:27.284000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Mammals are +nothing + in this market. A whisper of an echo of a joke.",hold,decrease,False,True,2850.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T21:34:39.917000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The comment below where I called it „utterly impossible“ and gave the four graphs. I can explain it more and make an upd,increase,increase,True,True,3651.3714,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T21:26:24.761000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","For the uniform random set, did you make any decisions downstream of generating the set? Did you see the points or run a",increase,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:54:27.219000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Clearly the TRAUNCHE power is not enough and NO will prevail!,decrease,flip,False,True,2143.945,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,hold,False,True,575.2945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:33:20.733000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The earth is +491,000,000,00 feet + away from the sun. That’s a +lot + of feet…",increase,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:15:00.023000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I think that discussion would not lead anywhere. If you wish do ignore it, do so. Here are the just the other two:",hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:19:28.785000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Sounds like you want us to maximize our positive impact on the world. But attempting to maximize some quantity at all co,flip,decrease,False,True,9366.9962,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-01T21:30:16.273000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Who is brave enough to bring this up to 69%?,decrease,increase,False,True,63392.3931,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T13:59:40.360000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","how + looked formulating that comment:",flip,hold,False,True,2600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T16:10:51.998000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yeah, it's probably due to the high rate of trades, comments, etc. coming in.",increase,hold,False,True,1001.6029,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T09:56:40.986000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This might actually be a better argument for NO than the others that have been put forward, but I also think it's a very",hold,flip,False,True,9.9814,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:46:08.761000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",It was 54% yes lead a day ago but then it spent almost 24hrs in the 30-40% range and it because almost even before spind,increase,decrease,False,True,5329.4042,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:52:03.305000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I just realized something important. We need to remember that due to rounding, we are not dealing with a continuous rand",hold,decrease,False,True,1540.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T14:11:06.547000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Very professional! (As mentioned before, it may produce a slightly wrong answer if it’s close. But as Alex showed that r",flip,hold,False,True,1008.2786,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T20:59:01.172000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Only costs 692 to get it up to 71%,decrease,flip,False,True,9218.2899,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-11T15:34:05.922000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,Manage to get anything watched over the weekend?,decrease,hold,False,True,1395.7275,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:37:50.801000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,Do movies watched on Sep 16 count?,increase,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:36:14.124000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",True. Nobody should ever donate to charity because eventually one of their generations of children may decide not to hav,flip,decrease,False,True,13076.2615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:28:45.384000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"yes side will give you a better bounty than whatever NO is offering, don't listen to them!",increase,increase,True,True,30017.8164,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T16:41:37.725000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",about the discrepancy vs the gap. I think that taking a Bayesian approach and taking into account what seems probable as,increase,decrease,False,True,776.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:06:06.922000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Get any friends you have to sign up. M500 + M250 for the referral. 100 people was enough to break the first hammer.,flip,increase,False,True,4045.5954,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:09:48.125000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I'm waiting for someone to point out that ""rationalussy"" isn't actually a word, so even if Eliezer tweets that string of",hold,hold,True,True,879.5409,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:51:48.843000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I figure all central tendencies and dispersion kinda point at the same things indeed. Unbelievably, I have things to do ",increase,decrease,False,True,202.4136,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T10:16:09.986000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Currently a Cat has control of this market. What else would you expect at 3am!,flip,hold,False,True,2924.6572,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-01-20T12:38:11.833000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Help, I am out of manna and I need more rationalussy shares",hold,increase,False,True,504.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:29:28.510000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I know this may be inefficient, but I must redeem myself. I've been feeling guilty ever since I was discovered to be a ",increase,decrease,False,True,386730.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:37:13.133000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,We are winning! Hold the line!,decrease,increase,False,True,41758.6495,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T11:13:30.946000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",what's the x axis in these 2 plots?,flip,hold,False,True,37.2604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:44:57.408000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,why would you bribe a yes holder with less than 60 bet?,flip,decrease,False,True,8005.39,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:40:26.495000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If it's non-obvious, I'll use the API as necessary. Not gonna count pixels, though now that you mention it that might ac",flip,hold,False,True,9366.9962,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T21:37:28.137000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,In this situation I actually think it’s ideal to be served last lmao,flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T00:42:54.215000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I'm down to get into fermi stuff but would first like to hear from Pat about what the scope is. Is ""the world"" not our w",increase,decrease,False,True,711.4313,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:00:03.509000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The bounty will only pay if it resolves no, which it will",flip,increase,False,True,33.2148,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:13.535000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Great, I just added it to LZ's bounty post",hold,increase,False,True,2225.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:41:56.389000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",btw curious for the mystery characteristics reveal after this is settled,flip,hold,False,True,97.2604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T12:47:00.523000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","YES shares are cheaper, and there's plenty of time to turn the market around. Surely someone's willing to take the risk.",decrease,flip,False,True,9.5637,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:37:37.462000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I want to see correlation numbers between those metrics to see if they quantify different things or all catch up on the ,increase,hold,False,True,741.3714,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-24T04:09:01.793000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Isaac in particular has a reputation of caring a lot about resolving correctly. If you want to bet on your stated belief,hold,decrease,False,True,9281.3319,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:12:24.153000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",try looking at ((max(x)-min(x)) + (max(y)-min(y))/2) as a function of box size for a random distribution,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T14:20:04.308000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Tits vs. Ass peaked when the creator was possibly dead,hold,decrease,False,True,2275.2077,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:27:05.141000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Is he trying to make it resolve yes right now?,decrease,decrease,True,True,367.7024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T02:29:28.482000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",bold of u to assume this absolute menace has biological needs,increase,increase,True,True,189.3513,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-11T17:01:10.291000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Darj is absorbed in a movie, please come back later",decrease,hold,False,True,1830.6811,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:04:19.282000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Not really 161k mana needed, if some of the orders are fake and some are removed by a person switching sides.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2468.5106,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:39:30.631000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Unfortunately not. The ""diff"" part is because we have switched from discrete to continuous, and so the standard formula ",increase,hold,False,True,129.9156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:28:27.212000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I offer m69 to extend the close date to 2023 to give the yes forces more time and to increase the amount of drama. This ,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:31:26.020000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"As long as we are all negotiating with financial terrorists, I will accept a bribe of 1000 mana to not report the market",decrease,hold,False,True,2193.8923,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T20:12:44.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I refuse to do any due diligence,hold,decrease,False,True,120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T13:13:22.937000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",i have turned my brain off. holding position,hold,hold,True,True,665.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T04:49:51.717000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Will mods act against alt accounts being made to trade on this market, if those are found?",increase,decrease,False,True,950.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:31:15.174000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm also just using others' updates and eyeballing, though I reckon it's been closer to 1.2 than 1.5 since then.",decrease,decrease,True,True,3614.6093,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:43:11.667000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",What are the current pieces of evidence you think are strong in favour of Yes (past 75%)?,increase,decrease,False,True,253.565,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:39:28.454000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","> How should we read this? +I don't see anything on this one either 😂 +Maybe someone will. +> Why is there a wider whit",hold,hold,True,True,437.0178,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T19:23:40.922000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"You can see the mana amount and number of shares in the your trades tab, and divide. All mana amounts are rounded but if",decrease,hold,False,True,6296.028,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-05T16:19:39.813000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,These atoms have lower parts too.,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T16:47:38.309000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Sharing a bit of my work. I was focusing on several metrics that all rely on the assumption that the data was NOT shuffl,increase,decrease,False,True,776.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:49:33.874000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",i want to see faces of YES holders when the real whales comes and deplete all of their tiny liquidity,hold,flip,False,True,0.2545,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T22:41:53.758000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The problem is, I can say the same about red. Multiple, uncorrelated metrics, chosen with minimal cherry-picking, all wi",decrease,decrease,True,True,1752.8074,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:40:42.216000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,and any others who have taken Evan's deal: I commit to paying double whatever you got from Evan if you buy 61 mana of ye,decrease,increase,False,True,39590.476,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T14:46:45.424000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",It's once again a good time to buy YES shares.,hold,increase,False,True,99.01,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:30:19.235000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",is literally the first example. How can I make this more clear?,increase,increase,True,True,3651.3714,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-11T22:56:09.175000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,is my sister. She did indeed join today and she asked me what markets to bet on. I gave her this one as a suggestion.,increase,hold,False,True,111.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:33:39.562000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It is a small mind that thinks of profit and victory all the time. I live for the chaos of battle.,flip,hold,False,True,63485.9539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:27:56.766000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So are angles (not turns, just the movement direction of the ""mouse""), 0.05 on the KS test.",decrease,increase,False,True,1623.7756,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T23:39:20.995000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","also~ from my understanding, human-placed points haven't recieved any randomization/entropy, so one of the colors should",flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:14:29.867000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Reminder that if YES wins, >1m mana is removed from circulation and 10k+ is donated to charity, whereas if NO wins, ~1m ",flip,increase,False,True,12156.2615,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:59:03.438000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,We have 1000 mana bounty for no,flip,increase,False,True,32.2148,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:39:12.404000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Interestingly, Evan has a 35k loan from Bayesian, this creates some new possibilities for market dynamics. Maybe Evan an",hold,decrease,False,True,2225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T03:14:46.725000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"thank you Mr (Mrs, Xrs?) Gheenes",hold,hold,True,True,2069.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,decrease,decrease,True,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:59:44+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It says I can trust you right here!,hold,increase,False,True,9033.6091,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T23:34:19.952000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I remember when + would give people high-interest loans despite being banned. Good times.",hold,hold,True,True,112702.869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:28:38.247000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,But no attacker is going to spend more on no than necessary.,flip,hold,False,True,3999.9843,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:41:31.254000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",in python: scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy,decrease,hold,False,True,1213.3765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,decrease,decrease,True,True,92.6733,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:33:40.079000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",live image of you concocting the most incorrect statement ever made to justify buying NO in this market,flip,decrease,False,True,13001.2615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T03:11:32.268000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Yeah I don't think that holds up. Otherwise gamblers wouldn't go further and further into debt; they'd realize their mis,hold,flip,False,True,9033.6091,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T20:46:16.562000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Some whale is gonna do this seconds before it expires,decrease,hold,False,True,3381.9493,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ddf7eb91f50aa0e21d43c1ce9d17744b73a36d99 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,116 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T06:27:05.816000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"we also have square feet, there's actually an infinite number of them, if you think of the world as an onion with infini",hold,increase,False,True,65.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T10:26:51.567000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,Current count comes to 141 if I'm going by the 93 total from Aug 30 + the 48 watched since. Does that align with your cu,decrease,decrease,True,True,1580.7275,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T06:44:40.127000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,So Darj pretty much needs to dedicate his waking hours until Sept 17 to this market going forward.,decrease,decrease,True,True,225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T09:13:44.454000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Hash digest of my thoughts for posterity: f6d10a61ad1d0d8654cd7a76ea029d20568ef085e53a785d30556e9c646db7ad,increase,hold,False,True,2200.0272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T16:05:22.476000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You have to shift perspective from the uniform distribution to the distribution over 100 points drawn uniformly. They ar,increase,increase,True,True,472.6291,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:37:22.776000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",What is the definition of rationalussy? This has been the biggest mystery of the market.,increase,hold,False,True,2013.42,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:36:14.124000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",True. Nobody should ever donate to charity because eventually one of their generations of children may decide not to hav,flip,decrease,False,True,13076.2615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:12:28.867000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Over M$140,000 to be made by Conflux resolving this incorrectly. I wonder if this is the most trusted a market creator h",hold,decrease,False,True,509623.6977,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T09:07:03.156000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I have crunched some numbers in order to provide some information to all market participants: +Current average: 62.23 +R",flip,hold,False,True,268.5169,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T02:43:49.088000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Just bet the Ṁ60,170 required to make it resolve YES. Easy.",flip,increase,False,True,743.1068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T01:08:17.398000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",There is that possibility but my guess is they won't risk that much money for profit the wealthiest of the 2 whales prob,flip,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:46:24.605000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",im waiting 4 it 2 get a bit lower,increase,decrease,False,True,50082.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T06:02:31.839000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I'll believe for as long as is necessary,decrease,increase,False,True,1647.1188,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:21:27.043000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Another perspective. Let’s say greens is human. It had the transform applied. Applying the transform a second time is ef,increase,decrease,False,True,472.6291,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:23:22.015000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Unfortunately, I agree the case against YES is weak. Eliezer did 'write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by th",hold,flip,False,True,1340.739,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:37:55.799000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,There is no opportunity cost and a non-zero chance of profit. I don't see any reason not to put a limit order at 10%.,flip,increase,False,True,2045.2756,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:01:03.933000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"if I don't sell I make more than 1000, if I sell I lose 2000+. +Your offer isn't worth it for me, it's over 3000 mana ne",hold,hold,True,True,9055.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:01:21.337000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","I want to thank me, myself, me, and me.",hold,hold,True,True,954.0866,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T12:21:08.306000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, except if I spend $10,000 on mana, it doesn't make me a better predictor. +This market has nothing to do with predi",flip,decrease,False,True,16030.9049,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T14:18:43.075000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"fwiw, I found myself in a similar postion. I ended up defecting and voluntarily returned the 50 Mana bounty I originally",increase,flip,False,True,0.9431,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T23:01:02.484000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",In that case they can switch their strategy to buying it up to 71%. That one has a free rider problem but no incentive ,decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:13:33.701000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"one account, even if you ignore him when deciding which side won right now you need 20 people. +I checked last few trade",hold,decrease,False,True,9355.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T04:27:17.957000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","If you're going for maximum ambiguity, you should make sure to misspell it, perhaps with rare Unicode characters that lo",increase,increase,True,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:46:43.291000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","maybe i'll do one of those ""limit orders"" +U DONT KNOWQ",increase,decrease,False,True,50082.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-24T07:54:27.003000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Only 6 minutes left for bribes!,decrease,hold,False,True,16453.9776,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:19:28.785000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Sounds like you want us to maximize our positive impact on the world. But attempting to maximize some quantity at all co,flip,decrease,False,True,9366.9962,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T17:54:19.645000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",they cancel together with my NO share into one mana,increase,hold,False,True,57759.1161,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,hold,True,True,111312.869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:12.675000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Gonna be pretty hard for those whales to get the market up against all the limit orders and then hold it to a >69% avera,flip,increase,False,True,5808.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:00:55.083000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"idk man i want mira to win really bad +underdog vibes",decrease,decrease,True,True,367.3066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T11:27:12.363000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Update at 60 points. I'm not advocating these metrics, but if you are basing your odds on them, I think you should updat",flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T01:38:25.463000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think the close time and EY timezone are the most obvious, and in general it makes sense to assume that people in the ",increase,hold,False,True,1763.0881,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:49:33.874000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",i want to see faces of YES holders when the real whales comes and deplete all of their tiny liquidity,hold,flip,False,True,0.2545,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:27:51.132000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If this market resolves N/A I am personally breaking into Conflux's house, logging onto their Discord account, and askin",increase,increase,True,True,402730.068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-16T01:33:56.375000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"THANK YOU TO ALL PARTICIPANTS, HOPE YOU ALL HAD FUN!",hold,hold,True,True,21880.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:07:37.526000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","What are you basing your opinion on? I tried scipy discrepancy, but it didn't give much info in favour of No. Can you gi",flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:38:03.366000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",damn. I am away from my computer for the next 8h. Can’t even update on the recent batch. Let alone on the next one.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:27:56.581000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I was able to reproduce the average using the data linked by + below (link no longer working), here's my script: +https",decrease,hold,False,True,4356.3232,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:36:12.639000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,DM me on Discord for Team NO's offers.,increase,hold,False,True,1706.2423,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:26:16.145000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Are you sure this is worth quitting Manifold over? I and the others are doing this for fun, we try to avoid getting emot",flip,decrease,False,True,10706.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T15:57:47.609000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"honestly not sure what this market truly is asking , but why did you bet so much on it?",increase,decrease,False,True,14.0533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T15:18:55.260000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Am I right in assuming new points come every hour when you are awake?,increase,hold,False,True,35.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T01:09:53.135000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I think the first hammer is partly a show-of-force. It discourages people from buying YES from sheer fear. Whereas M10k,",flip,decrease,False,True,3816.1874,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:53:35.066000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","dude this is all for fun, my bet is 5 Mana 😃 This is not a serious prediction market",hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T03:45:10.393000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this is such a good post I'm selling some No shares. Big Foot 😂😂😂,increase,decrease,False,True,697.927,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T03:09:28.966000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Simply double your bet every time you lose. Then the probability of winning approaches 100% as you continue to play, and",flip,increase,False,True,94664.4587,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-10T04:05:36.660000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Given that I'm now way overinvested in this market lol because I have to tune my bot, is this the median of the bet amou",hold,decrease,False,True,468.4221,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:48:39.295000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Oh, this is awkward, but my current shirt is actually grey. That profile pic is a little out of date.",increase,hold,False,True,280523.3276,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T03:20:30.210000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Plus or minus a few minutes uncertainty, a NO victory is now mathematically guaranteed.",decrease,increase,False,True,3553.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T12:47:00.523000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","YES shares are cheaper, and there's plenty of time to turn the market around. Surely someone's willing to take the risk.",flip,flip,True,True,9.5637,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T22:21:06.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I wonder too. Both Galen and Spindle seem to have been around since July 2022. Hardly newcomers.,flip,hold,False,True,74.3707,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:07:09.219000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"It's similar to putting dynamically-updated limit orders at every percentage, that's like molasses that buyers on both s",flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:02:01.948000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Don't take feathers lightly. They can weight more than iron when in a sufficient quantity.,flip,hold,False,True,10273.328,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:26:45.348000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Well ~400M here and ~1000M in the other market 😅. I could only bribe you with ~50M, since my stakes in that other market",increase,hold,False,True,3651.3714,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:07.901000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Are you just saying this to get people to bet the market up so you can buy more NO?,flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T03:30:12.301000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",eliezer i get that a sufficiently smarter entity will always be able to outsmart be in creative ways i wasn’t able to pr,hold,hold,True,True,2930.8165,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T11:34:17.349000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","discrepancy is in scipy +Blue: Discrepencies values for 100_000 draw of uniformly distributed 2d vars between 0-400, ea",flip,hold,False,True,37.2604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:53:43.393000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",do you mind holding off on revealing the transformations? Working through the analysis,decrease,hold,False,True,1421.8721,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:41:53.636000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"it shows you the new probability after your bet, so if you check that you should be fine. You're not going to get it to ",increase,hold,False,True,2904.827,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T06:29:14.969000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is huge, it was at 60 last night!",hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:35:19.479000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,This will be 70% in two hours.,decrease,increase,False,True,2468.5106,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:28:00.249000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Evan has forced our hand. +From now until this market resolves, any YES holder who can resolutely hold all their shares",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:24:53.346000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,The community guidelines don't say anything about soliciting bribes!,decrease,hold,False,True,15953.9776,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T00:19:21.279000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"hmmm I had been operating under the assumption that ""in the world"" meant Earth. Is that not the case?",increase,decrease,False,True,610.4313,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:54:25.652000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","You can still get regression to the mean on a statistical no-op. Let's say you sampled some random data, and the mean of",decrease,decrease,True,True,1562.1637,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T20:21:03.067000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I like the idea as well, but I have extremely limited free time for the next 6 hours.",decrease,decrease,True,True,898.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:22:51.066000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","yeah alex, you should go all in 😁",increase,increase,True,True,3157.5104,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-25T05:27:19.127000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","That remains to be seen. All joking aside, I have nothing against Buttocks, but the particular people who have bet NO on",decrease,hold,False,True,1942.9583,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:35:12.686000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I just checked how often the quadrants switch between points and got a moderately anomalous result, p=0.186.",decrease,decrease,True,True,816.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",hold,hold,True,True,6872.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T02:25:23.634000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I'm enjoying reading the popular comments as this adventure continues over time, but I'm also worried how much mana I ha",hold,decrease,False,True,2400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-06T17:08:28.182000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","is all-in, after winning gamble market after gamble market. Can anyone stop him??",increase,increase,True,True,211.6461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:04:19.282000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Not really 161k mana needed, if some of the orders are fake and some are removed by a person switching sides.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2468.5106,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:46:43.442000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Yea. I still don't weight this metric much as I don't understand it.,increase,decrease,False,True,218.565,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:54:05.327000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it's that much of a worry. I'd say Isaac is trustworthy. ish.,hold,decrease,False,True,13.9176,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:43:27.174000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, this account is where most of that mana came from in the first place.",decrease,hold,False,True,10393.3874,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:16:19.787000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw another one earlier, +. That account actually has a bet history though",hold,hold,True,True,112725.869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T05:01:34.304000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""the one with your name on it, no alts""",increase,hold,False,True,2033.42,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-02T06:06:43.018000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Can someone describe what is going on here?,hold,hold,True,True,16000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:23:00.303000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,trying to lose that trustworthyish badge are we?,decrease,decrease,True,True,2193.8923,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:35:33.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","As relevant to the ""will it be a prime number"" market, the average from now would need to be 1.874 or higher for the fin",decrease,hold,False,True,4356.3232,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T21:50:09.064000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Yes. This is why I’m confused- Eliezer’s tweet was, in my eyes, not ambiguous- It directly satisfied the “Yes” requirem",hold,flip,False,True,1100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T16:47:38.309000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Sharing a bit of my work. I was focusing on several metrics that all rely on the assumption that the data was NOT shuffl,increase,decrease,False,True,776.7756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T11:35:22.747000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Been a while since the last update. Where we at? +Edit: According to their LBd they're still watching plenty of movies, ",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:40:23.460000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Tipping was removed a few weeks ago. Almost everybody hates this decision and wants them back. The best way to send mana,flip,decrease,False,True,9033.6091,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T23:10:04.581000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",oh thank god I thought my NO limit orders might never be filled,decrease,hold,False,True,13.9744,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T13:08:04.273000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"you can check if the question is edited by looking at the history (3 dots, more info)",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:06:54.744000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Whales would lose a ton if they switched to YES. They had to go through a lot of limit orders to bet the market this low,flip,increase,False,True,5808.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T00:57:13.718000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Ah, how the knife turns to cut its own wielder.",flip,decrease,False,True,10273.328,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T22:37:49.743000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"clearly you can't find a logical refutation, and must resort to a rigged poll. This happens every time the feet win the ",hold,increase,False,True,95.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T19:06:13.569000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","That's what I was expecting too. I started selling mine, but then I started to doubt myself and thought ""what if somebod",hold,decrease,False,True,5.7462,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T22:41:53.758000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The problem is, I can say the same about red. Multiple, uncorrelated metrics, chosen with minimal cherry-picking, all wi",decrease,decrease,True,True,1752.8074,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:42:32.750000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,The gap has narrowed by 10 points in the last few hours!,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:21:53.251000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Folks, the bounty for reverting back to 61 YES is worth so much more, and is up until market close! +https://manifold.ma",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T01:57:55.843000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"The point is that you buy YES shares to eventually cache them out. If I'm not mistaken, this would work as long as there",flip,hold,False,True,252.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,hold,False,True,3259.3587,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:00:41.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Silly goose, you are losing by a mile",decrease,decrease,True,True,41758.6495,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T01:30:57.613000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",It doesn’t matter. The new year passed over an hour ago. This will resolve NO.,flip,flip,True,True,5.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T09:26:25.447000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",eliezer himself thinks there's equally good arguments for and against. he constructed the tweet to make that the case. I,hold,decrease,False,True,2986.045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:14:22.256000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","and + could both put down quite large No limit orders north of 50% if they want to sell their shares to him as incentiv",decrease,hold,False,True,1216.902,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..81ddf2dd8c1a8830cce65992eb61209893135071 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,122 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw. +I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,decrease,False,True,6002.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:19:48.728000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I used to try preprocessing stuff like ""wrapping the whole picture by 200 to the right and up"", because CD says it has a",increase,decrease,False,True,741.3714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:15:48.780000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If it was actually resolved by geometric mean, all Team NO would have to do to win is bet it down to 0.0% at any point.",increase,decrease,False,True,5808.9413,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T01:05:11.190000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",You can counter this strategy by putting up large Yes orders to sell your no shares!,decrease,hold,False,True,1216.902,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T17:57:44.031000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","For the sake of the species' continued existence, the solemn tone of EY's twitter must be maintained:",decrease,decrease,True,True,1006.902,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T19:16:08.732000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","We've got this, Mira! We can do it!",flip,increase,False,True,1341.4888,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:48:17.960000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","but alex, you could have BOTH, join yes and you'll see profit and help galen donate $10k",hold,hold,True,True,10097.0229,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-29T09:46:32.730000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This is a badly designed market. We will never reach ""consensus"" when we have financial incentive not to.",flip,decrease,False,True,376.3429,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:56:12.582000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",DUDE CHILL OUT FOR JUST A LITTLE BIT PLEASE,increase,decrease,False,True,12253.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T08:52:51.620000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","oh sorry I said team charity I meant team charity +team charity* +team charity* +team charity* +team YES****** sorry my",increase,hold,False,True,9831.2615,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:14:09.860000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Is the idea is that if someone breaks through THAT wall, then they have enough mana to make it resolve YES and that's gi",flip,hold,False,True,0.7349,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:42:57.156000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"That's fair, I also took a break after losing 10k (mana, not USD) in a previous market.",flip,decrease,False,True,10706.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T20:54:32.773000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Fine I defected give me 1592 mana +Also @above its already at 62k",decrease,flip,False,True,1416.4068,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T17:34:34.781000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"YES holders have forced my hand. +For the next 24 hours, any YES holder who sells out of this market will immediately re",hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:22:00.697000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","You explained the reason for my behavior in your own comment. They're related, and therefore appropriate to share here.",hold,hold,True,True,245805.1162,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T22:09:48.411000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I have indeed already canceled my limit order, and immediately placed back a new one :-)",hold,increase,False,True,10.5461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:05:43.320000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I'll give Ṁ50,000 for you to resolve it N/A just to piss off the whales who put a lot of effort into winning, and the wh",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T11:41:23.008000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Yeah this definetely makes red look very suspicious. But I am still wrapping my head around how the hidden white boundar,flip,decrease,False,True,4.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T10:16:09.986000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Currently a Cat has control of this market. What else would you expect at 3am!,flip,hold,False,True,2924.6572,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-13T06:13:34.626000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,the music in that one is so good,hold,hold,True,True,1228.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T05:13:19.683000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Pretty easy to accidentally filter the random set. Imagine on your first run all of the dots by chance mostly clustered,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:46:08.994000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Thats pretty even between YES and NO, right?",increase,decrease,False,True,3141.3714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It’d be very funny if + said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",decrease,hold,False,True,0.3804,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:06:54.744000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Whales would lose a ton if they switched to YES. They had to go through a lot of limit orders to bet the market this low,increase,increase,True,True,5808.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-01-30T02:34:13.474000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","clearly has the right of it. Rationalussy is going to happen, it is merely a question of when. I fear that only when the",decrease,flip,False,True,50.4791,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:56:36.365000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,OH THEY'RE FORMING ALLIANCE FOR TEAM YES,flip,increase,False,True,41.611,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T01:59:19.662000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Again I think this explanation is screwed up, but I CAN'T EDIT ANYTHING.",increase,decrease,False,True,252.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:42:49.347000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,OK now it's really time to sleep 😴,flip,decrease,False,True,23877.043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:31:54.561000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'll tip you M$400 if after cashing out you agree to immediately initiate a YES position @ 69% with it. There's a 50% re,hold,decrease,False,True,94664.4587,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T22:03:30.383000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The market's already at 79%, seems like NO whaling still has more profit opportunity! Join the team of the profitable an",flip,increase,False,True,431.3629,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T16:24:49.895000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Please refund my mana, I thought there was a huge gap.",increase,decrease,False,True,171.035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T13:58:49.494000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"more, since I did not count 5 years. result:1.2775 quintillion",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:32:36.840000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",that's exactly what I assumed it was lmfao,decrease,hold,False,True,1734.1188,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:11:31.902000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",only on the human-generated set right?,hold,hold,True,True,1456.7263,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:56:40.540000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"There's someone called Mira on discord with the same profile pic, so I'd guess yes.",decrease,flip,False,True,8.6239,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T06:52:02.614000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","no that's just the initial values, solver craps out if I let it start in invalid parameter space (if a point is outside ",increase,hold,False,True,27.2604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:06:29.526000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,The problem is that the market will resolve yes,decrease,increase,False,True,41758.6495,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T13:12:48.080000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,are the two bots acceleration and bot factory or laboratory not active on this market/ Would've either made a lot of mon,flip,decrease,False,True,128.6883,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T11:54:27.654000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",my CD/WD somehow differ from yours and give a much stronger NO signal. Which box size (and position) do you assume for t,increase,decrease,False,True,441.3714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T13:06:54.372000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Exactly. But they spread points out along whatever circumference they are already on.,increase,hold,False,True,279.9156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:08:05.101000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Btw., this also changes with the chosen box size 😁",flip,hold,False,True,8.886,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:15:13.647000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,I also set up limit orders now at different percentages around that (because limit orders are FIFO),increase,increase,True,True,50.1972,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T17:28:00.329000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I think people might want 1 point at a time now,flip,hold,False,True,13.3635,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:46:17.466000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"It doesn't need to stay at exactly 69, just at least 69.",hold,hold,True,True,9033.6091,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T23:30:22.884000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","assuming it's agreed green is the one with the hidden box, +i think green is the computer, when points are placed they a",flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:09:02.836000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,What's with these BANNED accounts betting on YES? Never made a trade before either,hold,hold,True,True,112725.869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:00:03.509000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The bounty will only pay if it resolves no, which it will",flip,increase,False,True,33.2148,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:34:26.231000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,this guy has an issue with everything,increase,decrease,False,True,399.0533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T11:25:45.074000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","ok my bad I said big, it isn’t.",flip,decrease,False,True,544.3606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T11:34:34.023000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","All they have to do is wait until the last moment and buy 50,000$M",flip,increase,False,True,3831.6298,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T23:13:20.391000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Do you have a code gist for your discrepancy calc and your entropy calc? I don't quite see how you apply entropy to this,flip,decrease,False,True,278.565,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:46:02.123000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Perhaps they've made peace with the fact that the entry fee isn't the same as the total cost of a night out.,decrease,hold,False,True,4356.3232,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T22:06:53.993000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Are you overcomplicating it a bit here, maybe? +I don’t think it’s inherently true that says anything",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",flip,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-28T15:11:45.423000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"🦶🦶🦶 +Insects don't have feet. Insects have legs. The leg is sectioned off into parts and each have their own name. +The ",increase,increase,True,True,135.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-12T08:25:52.671000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,haven't been able to log anything on letterboxd for weeks.,hold,decrease,False,True,5140.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:37:22.841000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,What I don't understand is why people keep buying YES at 12%. Don't they realize they can just make a limit order?,flip,hold,False,True,1988.8162,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:22:05.842000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,I DO KNOW! I'm just in a country with a weak currency ... so ... so weak,decrease,hold,False,True,360.2579,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:28:46.715000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","As Spindle says, nobody should get out now, the best times are still ahead of us.",increase,increase,True,True,274951.2336,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:24:00.555000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",do I get anything I push this past 95?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1513.3765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T14:02:26.247000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,yeah all good but the contraint there is server costs (because e.g. bots could place thousands of comments or etc). this,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T04:14:41.425000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Nvm - smaller box moves the line up,decrease,hold,False,True,1727.5973,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T05:16:45.803000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","small bet for someone who cracked it :P, but I believe you. DMed you",increase,hold,False,True,667.892,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T03:11:42.816000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",I feel like we keep giving tips to the YES share holders by commenting here.,hold,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,increase,True,True,50082.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T00:33:24.551000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,but Marcus doesn't have enough mana rn to fulfill that limit order,decrease,decrease,True,True,712.1798,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:21:11.679000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I still think that trump indictment resolution was bullshit +alas",decrease,decrease,True,True,7142.8399,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:53:13.075000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This isn't mod abuse, anyone can forge requests",decrease,hold,False,True,41756.6495,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:40:42.216000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,and any others who have taken Evan's deal: I commit to paying double whatever you got from Evan if you buy 61 mana of ye,decrease,increase,False,True,39590.476,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-22T10:05:35.858000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"yeah Tarkov just wiped, been eating up most of my free time. Getting back on the grind Wednesday.",increase,decrease,False,True,1373.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T05:06:13.373000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If team NO appears to sell out, be careful about getting greedy and bidding it up. They still retain most of their buyin",hold,hold,True,True,94664.4587,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T04:21:54.915000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I agree it's unfair. That's why I joined the NO side.,hold,hold,True,True,10393.3874,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:46:43.442000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Yea. I still don't weight this metric much as I don't understand it.,increase,decrease,False,True,218.565,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:53:14.548000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","the thing is, what if two whales have the same idea? They're both watching it just before close, planning to buy 100,000",decrease,hold,False,True,272.885,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:54:56.695000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I thought what you just described is the exactly gamblers mentality... Lost some in the past, gambling again to try to w",hold,decrease,False,True,9924.1505,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-05T17:47:03.704000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Personally I think that both this atom eye thing and the lower part foot thing are a stretch, but do we need this market",hold,decrease,False,True,957.927,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-23T00:15:52.262000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I've found a market where YES team can have a little victory (totally not promoting it for my own gains) +https://manif",hold,increase,False,True,90.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:49:45.465000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Wow what a boring market. It hasnt moved massively in a full hour!,decrease,hold,False,True,2193.8923,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T13:50:23.412000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Your simulations should both draw 100 points and do the transformation of them, for each run.",increase,hold,False,True,394.9156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:14:39.069000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I believe it's 50.0495% right now. Yep, that close. NO would have to average 43% over the next 45 minutes to reach 50% t",decrease,hold,False,True,23516.7027,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:11:22.006000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I’m Galen’s mom. I gave him my card 😊,increase,hold,False,True,172.0369,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:52:08.145000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I think I'm missing the importance of the hidden box. Why is knowing the hidden box dimensions important?,hold,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T16:45:24.579000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","What if he tweets something else and then uses inspect element, then deleted the tweet? Can we prove to whether a tweet ",decrease,decrease,True,True,90.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:05:01.284000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Team NO is taking recruits. +We need to put up half the total mana as team YES to win, and we stand to gain 200% return",increase,increase,True,True,1706.2423,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,flip,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:21:39.691000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Correct definition but it is definitely not a misspelling, just different origins",flip,hold,False,True,21286.9049,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:54:18.369000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Yeah - for a bit there was a three digit drop between Galen and the second highest YES shareholder. Insane,flip,hold,False,True,124.0516,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:33:20.303000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","For your example, the ""values"" are the probability densities. An X coordinate of 350 doesn't have a probability density ",flip,hold,False,True,278.565,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T04:14:18.977000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I think it's unfair that team YES has a higher goal +and + they have to maintain it for longer. It would be more fair i",decrease,flip,False,True,45.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T19:08:30.907000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Or how perspectives of women are mainly valued when it comes to +manifold.love",hold,hold,True,True,20.0277,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:27:05.141000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Is he trying to make it resolve yes right now?,hold,decrease,False,True,367.7024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:21:51.106000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It was 25 a few minutes ago! I would recommend YES bettors sell and take advantage of +my bounties",hold,decrease,False,True,112702.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:35:44.810000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Is this market the most liquid market ever?,hold,hold,True,True,6872.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T15:29:59.031000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you said ""I will use displayed percentages"" so the graph should be fine ?",flip,hold,False,True,499.5469,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T00:57:13.718000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Ah, how the knife turns to cut its own wielder.",decrease,decrease,True,True,10273.328,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T15:43:45.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Average distance between each point in the order they were revealed is kinda high for red,decrease,decrease,True,True,218.7686,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:52:31.083000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","For likelihood ratio, I just eyeball the relative heights of the histogram boxes that the red and green dashed lines fal",flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-07-01T22:44:40.489000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Yay, I finally got a link I can claim from +. I couldn't claim +'s wonderful gift because he had insufficient balance😭",hold,hold,True,True,19939.5702,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:11:56.901000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","At this point, the remaining average needs to be greater than 61% for YES to win. For YES to even get there will require",decrease,hold,False,True,26802.7027,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..09f3dd027a794fd7022b599ef533017b6d76748d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,122 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:12:12.864000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,You would just lose Ṁ1000 though,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:10:33.385000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","the users who were right about this particular question, yes",decrease,hold,False,True,1842.9583,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,increase,False,True,1668.7756,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T19:09:01.676000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Rationalussy is boring and not funny, but it's not sexist. Also see Shelvacu getting rationalussy from a man.",increase,decrease,False,True,861.3715,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:37:25.490000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",What a clear limit order graph,increase,hold,False,True,13264.8265,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T01:32:33.674000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",". I get 3.7% (~7% two-sided) for that, like your p suggests",increase,hold,False,True,3651.3714,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:34:28.122000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,that works. I'm klob in the manifold discord,flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",hold,hold,True,True,19.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:48:05.217000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I actually think that it's too high of a percentage. Team NO is on track to have a mathematically guaranteed victory by ,flip,increase,False,True,5808.9413,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T01:19:31.411000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","At this rate, Team NO will narrow the gap quickly. But Team YES has more whales now, so perhaps they can regain momentum",flip,hold,False,True,5.1791,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:07:37.526000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","What are you basing your opinion on? I tried scipy discrepancy, but it didn't give much info in favour of No. Can you gi",flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-15T03:00:30.947000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I would like to just come say welcome to the Mr. Rationalussy. May the spirit guide your right!,increase,increase,True,True,58.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:08:28.883000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I wonder if someone will buy like a million dollars worth of mana just to flip this market,decrease,hold,False,True,8905.2002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:50:24.211000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,I have a feeling we'll see an significant increase in trades tomorrow. Could be worth another market,increase,increase,True,True,15.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T23:42:13.408000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The dominant model of atomic attraction back in the early 1900s was +the hook-and-eye model +, where each atom has some",hold,increase,False,True,1274.7949,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T02:34:58.163000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Part of the problem is that it's hard to incentivize people to vote against it, because they are only set to win a littl",flip,decrease,False,True,2750.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear +too + uniform to actually be rand",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:06:09.748000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","@MP + Liquidity and limit orders are differently things. Liquidity is how much mana can be won from the market itself, w",hold,hold,True,True,509623.6977,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:36:53.457000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"okay I will accept for a tip of 500 mana. (I'm actually down about 650 now if I cash out, and the profit from the gain ",flip,decrease,False,True,1034.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:04:04.562000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Green stands out by a lot here, the only problem I guess is that this is a cherry-picked metric",increase,decrease,False,True,117.0238,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T08:29:01.382000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",The limit orders for NO are so piled up that I see no way it flips unless a massive whale overturns.,decrease,hold,False,True,505.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:59:08.466000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I am usually a ""spiritualist"" rather than a literalist in terms of market resolutions, but only in cases where there is ",hold,increase,False,True,9.9814,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:15:40.274000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"When a market resolves N/A, all the trades that happened on it are reversed, even gains and losses you already cashed ou",increase,decrease,False,True,4569.9658,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-06T07:11:11.164000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Come on Darj, pace is looking good, need more 4 or 5 movie days.",increase,increase,True,True,671.611,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:10:58.822000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I was commenting on your ""at least 50%"" wording. I know, nitpicky.",decrease,hold,False,True,140.3736,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T12:20:15.612000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Yeah that worked out really well for the long term.,increase,decrease,False,True,373324.9449,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T01:35:39.866000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I did participate in this market but I figure I will give some unsolicited advice to those who lost a lot. +1. Never go ",hold,decrease,False,True,217.7575,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T21:49:48.441000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",wait. People actually spend money on this site? 😳,flip,decrease,False,True,154.3611,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:49:55.825000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"The more volume markets like this get, the more they stop being opt-in for users who are trying to compete on profit. Ma",decrease,hold,False,True,40.4991,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:21:08.146000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",the rate is fast. Not everyone can spend so much time monitoring this market.,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:26:37.746000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Oh man, I forgot you want to sleep 😅",increase,hold,False,True,588.1932,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T14:01:14.130000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Oops! Sorry, my bad for not realizing",increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-04T06:54:40.849000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,After this is over you are being put under constant supervision. ❤,hold,decrease,False,True,1470.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:48:30.258000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac, Jack and Marcus sold all their shares last minute and bought YES that would be wild.",flip,hold,False,True,54.2067,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:03:05.951000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,a vote for YES is a vote against moloch,decrease,hold,False,True,367.3066,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-10T15:31:35.656000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I have a big limit order at 50%, who wants to buy it?",decrease,decrease,True,True,14288.1202,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:28:46.715000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","As Spindle says, nobody should get out now, the best times are still ahead of us.",increase,increase,True,True,274951.2336,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T13:08:04.273000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"you can check if the question is edited by looking at the history (3 dots, more info)",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T23:50:29.268000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The distributions are very different and both rather atypical,increase,hold,False,True,88.1932,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:35:36.057000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Could you post the code you intend to use to determine resolution if it's not obvious? Or do you just intend to do somet,increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,hold,decrease,False,True,13100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T22:16:46.410000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'll hold on to the end with you Mira. You finished honorably,increase,hold,False,True,503.6648,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-13T21:03:55.168000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Saying infinity for eyes in cheese is not accurate, there's a finite amount it's just hard to calculate. Suffice to say ",flip,increase,False,True,575.2945,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,decrease,False,True,782.2453,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:02:59.335000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Thank you + for making such an interesting market and giving me this excellent opportunity to learn more about manifold",increase,hold,False,True,4791.0711,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:32:36.840000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",that's exactly what I assumed it was lmfao,decrease,hold,False,True,1734.1188,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:47:13.357000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",makes me feel weak and powerless,flip,decrease,False,True,2326.3894,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T12:36:18.041000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The digit test is really insignificant. You did 48 individual test there for each color. One would expect 2-3 of them cr,flip,decrease,False,True,7.5356,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:56:09.765000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Keep in mind it’s average percentage, not “time spent either side”. Holding this market at 49%/51% is barely impacting t",flip,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T22:20:23.500000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Also, I think Manifold adding multiple different currencies would introduce big costs and complexities and would probabl",flip,decrease,False,True,5962.7932,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T15:05:43.123000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",what is your plan to get the average,increase,hold,False,True,16789.1713,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:24:34.166000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"YES holders have forced my hand. +If anyone who accepts + 's double defection bounty agrees to triple defect, I will co",flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:24:39.742000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Interesting thesis, I'll have to consult my Quant",hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:52:46.390000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Does the No team has to worry about counter party risk here? +Given that the market creator Isaac himself has now joined",flip,decrease,False,True,2628.9425,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:40:11.959000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I mean, the market description doesn't say anything, so I could do pretty much whatever I want without conflict with it.",decrease,decrease,True,True,15953.9776,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:33:20.733000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The earth is +491,000,000,00 feet + away from the sun. That’s a +lot + of feet…",increase,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:48:08.454000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I’ve precommitted to not defecting, stop pinging me, please.",hold,hold,True,True,61.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:37:13.133000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,We are winning! Hold the line!,decrease,increase,False,True,41758.6495,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T13:58:49.494000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"more, since I did not count 5 years. result:1.2775 quintillion",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:39:34.500000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,The problem is that you make zero profit buying NO,decrease,decrease,True,True,41590.6495,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-24T03:54:08.861000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,There were people (on both sides I believe) who asked for the market to remain open until the original close date. Partl,increase,hold,False,True,14245.0106,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:52:40.666000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",That's the point actually. This metric being invariant to the reflections makes it easier to use it to detect the fact t,decrease,increase,False,True,1562.1637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:38:58.727000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Pretty scary. Feels like the only one pushing for NO. The percentage just keeps climbing and I might not see the next ba,decrease,decrease,True,True,1313.3765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T21:30:36.441000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Panic in the streets of Manifold...,increase,decrease,False,True,249630.7547,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T20:38:49.571000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I don't need all that math shit. Red is clearly the fake one because it's trying way too hard to be random. Just look at,decrease,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:04:19.282000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Not really 161k mana needed, if some of the orders are fake and some are removed by a person switching sides.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2468.5106,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:29:25.508000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"In addition to that, free cash just for holding your positions above 61! +https://manifold.markets/LZ/fight-for-61#34vs",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-09T02:48:27.284000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Mammals are +nothing + in this market. A whisper of an echo of a joke.",hold,decrease,False,True,2850.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T04:03:29.469000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",will we see any counterwhales to fight Marcus and jack??,increase,hold,False,True,441.218,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T14:51:38.257000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",just sold out of this market. Only misery awaits for non-whales here,decrease,decrease,True,True,9.5571,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T14:00:55.827000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Mass trades, right? (Or not, please tell me if I am mistaken)",increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:28:00.249000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Evan has forced our hand. +From now until this market resolves, any YES holder who can resolutely hold all their shares",hold,increase,False,True,1020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:30:22.302000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I will be somewhat sad if this market gets resolved negatively :(,decrease,decrease,True,True,97.3066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T13:43:14.866000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"the average person world wide walks 5000 steps a day. So, 100 billion humans existed, with an average life expectancy of",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:40:02.410000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Example: the mean of 100 draws of uniform dist is approx normal distributed. If you apply a random transform to 100 draw,increase,hold,False,True,462.6291,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:42:35.316000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Yes, I think Bayesian and Nikki might want to remove their limit orders so the price can go lower. >61 mana betting will",hold,decrease,False,True,2225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,hold,False,True,3259.3587,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:55:14.197000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"use the api to bet, then set replyToCommentId",decrease,UNKNOWN,False,True,41758.6495,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:59:39.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",right but bailing isn't morally very good we all believe in spindle,hold,decrease,False,True,7296.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:28:23.904000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,dunno what their strat is but I'm enjoying the new risk free rate,increase,hold,False,True,295.8953,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T01:43:12.518000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm going to dump a bunch of evidence soon. Hopefully point 41 doesn't come before this. (Just re-starting looking at th,increase,decrease,False,True,349.892,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:52:31.083000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","For likelihood ratio, I just eyeball the relative heights of the histogram boxes that the red and green dashed lines fal",flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:21:34.177000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"He just said she was the underdog, so he's putting his money where his mouth is by staying very, very far away",decrease,increase,False,True,10393.3874,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T19:04:34.552000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Just to be clear, regarding my limit bid at 67 I'm not switching to team YES, just giving other people a chance to join ",flip,decrease,False,True,29180.9743,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T14:52:18.721000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I had more time, this seems like a great market to just buy low and sell high on. I don't know if it will end up YES ",flip,decrease,False,True,32.1308,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-01-04T19:52:34.361000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,can you please provide a reliable source that proves nematodes have eyes? Most of the nematodes live in dark places wher,hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:06:29.526000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,The problem is that the market will resolve yes,decrease,increase,False,True,41758.6495,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:55:30.194000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I don't think that one had as many limit orders, did it?",hold,hold,True,True,509623.6977,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-02T16:20:37.457000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","A couple moderators discussed and decided we need + to resolve this himself. My own biased opinion (and Eliezer's at le",hold,decrease,False,True,2986.045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T01:08:17.398000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",There is that possibility but my guess is they won't risk that much money for profit the wealthiest of the 2 whales prob,flip,decrease,False,True,3831.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:09:25.399000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I agree with your assessment. Thus, it's GREEN",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:45:09.271000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I think the market creator said that the tweet had to remain up for at least 1 minute for it to count right?! It’s some,flip,decrease,False,True,169.0258,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T17:38:08.780000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"For comparison: +https://pastebin.com/R3iZ8dFm + – R script that calculates the key stats for this market using API dat",hold,decrease,False,True,10000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:35:37.379000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I am the leetest trader of this market,decrease,increase,False,True,1846.8408,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e4b594d185c9753e65484b254e7b0f02f7f319ac --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.41029175640844706,0.6900000000000002,0.2797082435915531,UP,0.60757280572178,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,30,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.16706269593814144,0.12609796520758024,-0.0409647307305612,DOWN,0.5711675913917458,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,14,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.37800371341261757,0.10284512402400005,-0.27515858938861754,DOWN,0.688076853776415,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",63,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.6247259464695615,0.7022222222222222,0.07749627575266071,UP,0.8799630655586335,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.7663975872347908,0.8819605240321353,0.11556293679734453,UP,0.5623427261990062,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,28,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.127214074772153,0.11806607312834554,-0.009148001643807455,DOWN,0.7178135721744139,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,14,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.5108219988917128,0.5029723719143271,-0.00784962697738567,DOWN,0.9412010796904061,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",23,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.6025966882627538,0.670141823048399,0.06754513478564517,UP,0.2236084603059948,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",9,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.41765917306113365,0.9594751387717623,0.5418159657106286,UP,0.5779292447003663,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",23,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.5320563449323434,0.6543282069671524,0.122271862034809,UP,0.666833007255626,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.25970593793034125,0.24973714120683654,-0.009968796723504703,DOWN,0.3052226423154396,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,10,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.7219473855147879,0.09120086315422612,-0.6307465223605617,DOWN,0.6281462351908335,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,30,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..74b91060b24a1b7a981af290cd76d70bbf0f11ac --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.6957510561348466,0.9013349211139413,0.20558386497909475,UP,0.35876014493054825,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",163,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.5600000000000002,0.3587165477522472,-0.20128345224775296,DOWN,0.3258426966292135,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.15411083739094883,0.1099999999999999,-0.044110837390948926,DOWN,0.08215356409258556,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,58,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.7061456652823016,0.9487470462226658,0.2426013809403642,UP,0.8254035720588192,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,29,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.7399999999999999,0.9084428964734477,0.1684428964734478,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,2,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.48984450781447836,0.445226508054752,-0.04461799975972636,DOWN,0.9228364903698121,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.21967293766887389,0.2787657022068996,0.05909276453802573,UP,0.7328340565763029,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",12,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.4512818720803688,0.3398367860248947,-0.1114450860554741,DOWN,0.9542521529714636,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",88,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.42939988893248177,0.46594090938547567,0.0365410204529939,UP,0.22238207244843325,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",28,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.26887888486391553,0.20812459502961908,-0.060754289834296454,DOWN,0.13199590171004272,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,33,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.6855660586118295,0.6650823231688482,-0.02048373544298132,DOWN,0.9352286383725495,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.34964927858443573,0.2450349958960403,-0.10461428268839543,DOWN,0.4838398230609181,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,16,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0d385d49b95e798684d2cb57e7dc613441e778bc --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:20:28.233000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the order book on Polymarket doesn't look that deep. I'm not sure if I'm reading it right ( +https://polymarket.com/even",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T13:48:14.079000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It seems clear to me based on the description that this market will only use the initial estimates, even if better ones ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T14:11:44.327000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He also gave a lot of tariff waivers to importers that were surely in no way related to Trump campaign contributions.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:21.393000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"That depends which products/services you have in mind. Enterprise cloud database migration takes years, and the top prov",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T06:19:55.574000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i just realized that this market probably has some insider trading lmao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-25T00:01:19.592000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1db51e356707198b88f857bb9f95ac3f3a374d07 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:21.393000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"That depends which products/services you have in mind. Enterprise cloud database migration takes years, and the top prov",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:20:28.233000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the order book on Polymarket doesn't look that deep. I'm not sure if I'm reading it right ( +https://polymarket.com/even",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T06:19:55.574000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i just realized that this market probably has some insider trading lmao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T13:48:14.079000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It seems clear to me based on the description that this market will only use the initial estimates, even if better ones ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T14:11:44.327000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He also gave a lot of tariff waivers to importers that were surely in no way related to Trump campaign contributions.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-25T00:01:19.592000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c2da37a7d8e82e4d2a1a6ffc1dbb65b24599fecd --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,232 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T22:13:03.228000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and other lies you can tell yourself to justify voting for Trump,YES,NO,False,True,20.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-23T03:38:33.503000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump seems determined to antagonize every single other country: +Trump threatens to try and regain control of Panama C",YES,YES,True,True,912.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:28:40.092000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,are you suggesting the EU would expropriate the existing US owned infrastructure? That's one way of making it happen I g,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",NO,NO,True,True,200.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T05:33:36.081000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The China tariffs are really happening,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T02:54:34.120000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Commodities are rising very quickly but the CPI still shows goods deflation right now. They will eventually show up as g,YES,NO,False,True,12400.1352,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T05:52:01.519000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"yep agree +I already have positions on these two markets +https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-the-next-change-to-t",YES,YES,True,True,18470.9406,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T19:09:28.427000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"To those buying YES, why stonk market up so bigly? Either tariffs don't matter, or market doesn't beleive in them.",NO,NO,True,True,5200.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:17:50.170000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it was 10-20% broad based tariffs excluding FTA countries and 60-100% on China based on previous indications. The Can/Me,NO,YES,False,True,5200.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:04:53.135000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"or was it two consecutive negative quarters needed to qualify for recession,don't remember",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,9872.0608,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,25670.9364,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-26T02:48:45.357000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""The Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232), the Trade Act of 1974 (Section 301), the International Emergency Economi",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T23:04:46.353000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Isn't it hilarious how people keep repeating the same mistakes xD +It is! +We're talking about Manifold, right?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,71888.3299,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:56:16.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think you are underestimating how hard it is to do this stuff. +I do agree that the winds have changed, but politica",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:59:52.139000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Regarding the yield curve as measured by 10y2y treasury yield spread: it just disinverted.,YES,NO,False,True,1363.6765,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T21:39:57.607000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Funny - I was being told I was wrong for buying at sub 20% 🤷‍♂️,YES,NO,False,True,35721.9083,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-10T13:46:23.333000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Higher gas and rents keep US inflation elevated, likely delaying Fed rate cuts",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:21.393000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"That depends which products/services you have in mind. Enterprise cloud database migration takes years, and the top prov",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-12T23:21:49.732000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Manifold seems to be resolving all cash markets to %, did I miss a memo?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,275.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:51:49.071000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Also clear indication that he doesn't give a flying fuck about the US tech sector 👀,YES,YES,True,True,30.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-20T00:52:28.416000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Made a market for recession in the next 12 months:,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,3399.0244,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T06:32:10.056000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with +'s interpretation. By EOY would likely mean both quarters have to be in 2025, even if the recession start",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M +10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T06:56:48.898000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"yeah I agree with all of this +Add in the lagged monetary impacts from people terming out their debt and the next 18 mon",YES,YES,True,True,16559.9406,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T22:39:32.013000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,A negotiating tactic for what? He already negotiated the USMCA trade act during his first term,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-14T08:21:13.050000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"If Q3 GDP is positive, this market will resolve no. +Q3 ends 9/30/25 +Kalshi currently predicts growth of 1.8% +And pred",NO,NO,True,True,257.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:53:49.387000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,This is going to be spectacularly idiotic,YES,YES,True,True,30.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-10T23:42:01.588000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Is the resolution criteria somehow different than this one? +https://manifold.markets/EternalSunrise/will-the-us-enter-",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-22T01:34:25.946000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I made a pair of markets for the weaker question of simply whether tariffs will go up. Thanks for the interesting market,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T02:28:34.626000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Other countries could retaliate against the US by applying matching export tariffs to help Trump out.,NO,NO,True,True,31738.6582,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T19:10:56.467000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,then why are you not buying more?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,300.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-09T15:50:14.701000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Based on predictions from various banks and institutions the likelihood to enter a recession in 2024 is given but statis,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-11T20:29:53.650000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I agree with you Luciana: + Based on curent data, it seems more likely that the US economy will continue to grow in 202",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-20T01:19:47.306000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"aren't ""bullshit"" and ""truthful hyperbole"" just two ways of saying the same thing?",NO,NO,True,True,32294.948,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T02:03:23.862000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Like if the EU cuts off US tech companies and its institutions pull their capital out of US markets, that trillions and ",YES,NO,False,True,30.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T12:07:44.286000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Nice to see you Mr. PA swing state boy.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,61.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,8000.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time: +https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule + +""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,125371.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T13:42:37.123000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I agree. Trends on prediction markets: +Here: min of 13% in May, now 21% +Kalshi +: min of 7% in April, now 11% +Metacu",YES,YES,True,True,40.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T11:18:45.901000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For anyone reading the current pricing in both markets (40 % vs 39 %), feel free to arb this one or add liquidity if you",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1163.6765,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-05T07:30:46.004000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,to be fair a lot of the uptick in unemployment data we see now from historic recessions are a result of revisions much l,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,19878.762,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T14:47:08.736000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it makes American goods similarly attractive to Israeli goods.,NO,YES,False,True,31688.6582,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:19:36.037000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what do you think would be the main limiting factors?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:37:06.014000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I see you've already revised your 2-3 year timeline,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:15:25.437000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,for one glorious moment I thought Trump was himself tweeting pictures from Peep Show,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,814.8644,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:22:57.323000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"So, high tariffs were imposed on 2nd April, which conveniently is the start of a quarter. It's now pretty much the end o",YES,YES,True,True,30611.8738,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:45:04.695000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Popular in academia and journalism, afaik, I don't know if whether the 10y-2y bond spread was popular among the major pl",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,18.671,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T13:51:57.704000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Why turnips rather than long-life dried and tinned food?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:07:39.246000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it would take about 2-3 years to make a European cloud provider that was good enough to replace the US ones. That is ent,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T22:08:13.181000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,It was pretty obvious with the rapid interest rate hikes and the inverted yield curve.,YES,YES,True,True,17997.1352,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:43:29.582000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Initially just capacity. It takes years to just build the low level hardware and physical datacenters. Then you need to ,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T12:43:31.382000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,this is all to answer the same question as this market,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,100.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",NO,NO,True,True,399.899,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-07-14T12:08:26.098000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I like this, but how can an average user calculate ruin risk from these loans? (There is a chance of multiple markets re",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T02:26:20.389000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"there's almost no ev in betting in that market though, no liquidity, low confidence predictor",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2000.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T22:02:36.196000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah! And to be clear, if it did happen it would be awesome!",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T13:51:40.981000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"lol, whatever. Not interested in discussing your love for a bullshitter. Point is you can never be sure he'll do what he",YES,NO,False,True,310.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:41:36.209000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,The 10-year-2-year bond spread has historically been a good and popular marker that correlated strongly with subsequent ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:41:47.807000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,It's unfair because a foreign company selling in the US will not face a VAT. That's what I mean by 'from the US perspect,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,576.6927,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T14:19:24.169000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"This is the first I've heard that claim being made. For those interested in US trade policy (there are dozens of us!) , ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,50.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T22:35:13.240000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"My issue is when you say those indicators all flash red, it sounds like overfitting to me. Wouldn't that imply close to ",NO,NO,True,True,250.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:24:54.383000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"From the +NYT +: +Mexican officials did not immediately react, but the announcement most likely did not come as a surpr",YES,YES,True,True,613.3469,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T14:11:22.650000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The orator of our generation is speaking, it is conditional!",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T20:57:52.032000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,the fool who doesn’t believe him?,YES,YES,True,True,813.3469,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T13:44:02.898000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Hey, I liked +On Bullshit +but his take on Trump is so bad. I see the article is from 2016. I would have agreed with h",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,5600.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T02:56:34.346000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"also worth noting that doesn't seem to include the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, or the elimination of section 301 exc",NO,YES,False,True,5700.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-04T04:22:41.701000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,16% seems about right to me but I imagine it’s going to head back up to 20% before dropping after the Q1 gdp estimate,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T12:54:32.579000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The article is from Harry Frankfurt, a prominent philosopher, as opposed to a bullshitting con artist who says things th",YES,NO,False,True,310.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:40:58.161000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"well no, that doesn't make any sense. There is no perspective from which VAT is ""unfair"" to US companies. It's just bull",YES,NO,False,True,30.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-18T14:40:31.349000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Crude, perhaps, but elegant, and not vulnerable to things like force-fitting +Nicholas movie appearances against drowni",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,750.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T13:05:44.478000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Isn't the goal then to distort competition in favor of US imports? +Israel for example has a VAT of 18% which makes buyi",NO,YES,False,True,2654.4823,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T00:54:00.472000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"with more risk and at a lower rate of expected return. I imagine lots of people have been busy calculating the +Trump ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,11319.3406,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T04:15:21.508000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I have a market for Canada related news specifically:,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1000.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,5400.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T03:01:32.377000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I think that market requires 2 quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024. This market is about ENTERING a recession, which",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",NO,NO,True,True,889.8625,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,YES,YES,True,True,200.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,NO,NO,True,True,300.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-05T13:57:29.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"although it's possible that the gains from trump's deregulation completely dominate any losses due to tarriffs, even bef",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-05T01:17:57.878000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"There is a large discrepancy between the 18% here and some probabilistic models: +https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/ca",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-10T11:25:41.919000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""a promise is most useful when it is empty, and believe me these are the most tremendously empty promises, maybe ever"" -",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-23T00:15:58.823000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"idk, the people I talk to suggest what is most likely is: +1) no significant broad based tariffs in 2025 +2) if China ta",NO,NO,True,True,3700.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:51:27.840000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ya, it's based on FRED quarterly rates, so likely it will resolve at earliest after Q2.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19966.2654,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:55:35.302000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Look at that big beautiful smile. So happy,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,30.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T13:48:14.079000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It seems clear to me based on the description that this market will only use the initial estimates, even if better ones ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"you might like this Axios article: +https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",YES,YES,True,True,40.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,YES,YES,True,True,700.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:24:11.724000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Make a market for it, I'll bet it down to 10%. You have no idea what you're talking about",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-14T17:19:43.139000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Check out this market to bet on what Trump will say in Year 1 +https://manifold.markets/Houston2025/what-words-or-phras",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,YES,YES,True,True,4000.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",YES,YES,True,True,323.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T16:33:04.392000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Made a time sensitive (but inversed, this is just the question with the Yglesias tag) version of the question, for the Y",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-09-16T08:51:28.375000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Nice and vague: The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4893.9404,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:46:33.635000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I have two markets on recession in 2024 on the negative GDP and the NBER criteria, and they have strikingly different pr",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1999.0244,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:13:30.808000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"much more complicated than that (and my declaration itself is of course oversimplified, since currency appreciation can ",NO,NO,True,True,5200.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,YES,NO,False,True,32527.762,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T09:13:56.336000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Thanks + for the excellent write up.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,11949.3112,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T11:53:11.638000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with Chris, the language is very clear. Initial estimate is what it says, any other reading required assuming th",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4650.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-10-25T17:47:11.520000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-24/bond-market-misfires-with-warning-of-a-recession-that-never-came?embe,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:02:28.040000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the claims were a bit vague, malachite you created a market that i think is vaguer and broader than might have been expe",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T17:30:34.943000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"My dad is no longer a federal government employee, but his friend who is still working for them says to expect a ""red ho",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-08T20:08:25.450000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Good one, but the Sahm Rule has already triggered. The text on the rightmost door should be ""yield curve disinversion"".",YES,YES,True,True,2063.6765,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,21966.2654,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T02:21:46.339000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The 10% is on top of other tariffs currently in place,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T16:57:23.097000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The inaccurate leak to Reuters ~1.5 hours before the announcement at the press conference is exactly the optimal strateg,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-03T20:09:00.997000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He told Trudeau that if he cannot handle his list of demands without ripping the U.S. off in trade, maybe Canada should ",NO,YES,False,True,5400.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:32:14.077000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The rate of increase of unemployment (which the Sahm rule is a measure of) is an excellent recession indicator, and som",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,39205.5098,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-11T22:14:07.904000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering that ""consumer spending"" makes up nearly 68% of the US GDP, a major indicator of economic stability, and tha",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:26:38.745000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I get that TACO is a thing, but 6% isn't very high, and market resolution just needs one quarter. I think it's just a ca",YES,YES,True,True,32361.8738,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T22:39:42.990000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,There has long been a question if Trump wants tariffs for their own sake or just as a bargaining chip. Last couple hours,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-04T16:40:32.636000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,if the official government numbers start excluding government spending what will be the basis for this market's resoluti,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",NO,NO,True,True,1315.2604,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-01T10:02:45.765000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,What lack of patriotism! It's ne’er been a good bet to bet against America.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,3045.7482,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T06:19:55.574000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i just realized that this market probably has some insider trading lmao,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T19:12:02.705000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,my understanding is that Biden did nothing to reform this obvious opportunity for corruption.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,50.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",YES,YES,True,True,5999.3386,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T12:04:14.037000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with what you said except that you made some omissions: +You undersold the impact of the stock market on the eco",YES,YES,True,True,100.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-24T01:44:57.027000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Talks of a recession began when the Federal Reserve began to increase interest rates amidst the 2022 inflation spike. Ov,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T05:08:38.801000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""Thank you for playing."" - Kevin Burke",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,142068.5666,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:30:22.116000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I could have sworn that NBER delayed longer than 2 years on some important matter related to the 2008 recession, but I l",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-05T04:40:24.846000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,It will be hard to declare a recession. Recessions are hard to present in circumstances like we are in right now. What i,YES,YES,True,True,1157.7466,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-12T19:03:31.498000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,What's the NO position here? If we haven't already crossed 6% for this quarter we will shortly. Effective tariffs estima,YES,YES,True,True,2989.6062,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T06:45:52.686000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"putting that market aside (it's low liquidity but I think high enough that we should consider the option plausible), tho",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1350.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T16:17:28.421000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,read the description of the market,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19843.7232,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,40.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-05T04:43:06.132000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Productivity gains from AI in 2024-2030 hopefully will carry us out of this debt scare. Inflation will probably drop bec,YES,NO,False,True,1157.7466,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T15:12:43.391000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ok, I understand it a lot better now thank you.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2654.4823,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-19T01:34:09.783000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"will this market resolve when Q3 advance estimate comes out, given growth is positive?",NO,NO,True,True,130179.179,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T16:28:02.523000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Why was this trading >10% higher than an equivalent market on Kalshi? +https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlargetariff/trump-ta",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,14920.0754,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-07T14:29:08.955000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"this market narrowly defines recession based on GDP growth though. If Q3 is positive, it resolves no.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T11:46:25.809000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,When does the Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast switch from 'estimations' to quarter 1 into 'reports' from q1? or does it eve,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-11T15:00:30.311000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"At this point, can we all agree that last week was a little bit of an overreaction?",NO,NO,True,True,35152.4996,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different +I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",YES,YES,True,True,40.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T22:10:14.456000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If a fool says he’ll do something, believe him.",YES,YES,True,True,500.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-13T16:35:05.716000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""I punch someone in the face and I'm utterly shocked when they punch me back""",YES,NO,False,True,30.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T16:31:39.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"How do you expect tariff negotiations to proceed? +Moving production to US seems like a process that will take several m",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-12T23:29:50.579000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. +Please read",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-30T03:37:52.932000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Sounds like policy wise you’re advocating for a hands off approach to the situation after spending too much money on por,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,24.4501,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-10T16:49:20.321000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,look at the political strife in europe: now is the time to threaten them in order to make our vassals--uhh...i mean alli,NO,YES,False,True,50.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-23T01:58:37.519000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Please make note of the clarification above and in the description.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T23:16:34.437000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"A lot of movement in this market but less in mine: +https://manifold.markets/Cactus/average-tariffs-under-trump-RppCgnI",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T20:45:45.950000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I apologise for the incoherence, it was 4 am here when I wrote that, on mobile, in bed. But someone was wrong on the int",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-03-10T04:35:23.809000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,bruh im not gonna wait 6 damm years,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",NO,YES,False,True,965.2996,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%. +https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",YES,YES,True,True,912.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T09:49:40.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"are you suggesting that while 1:00-1:15 and 1:15-1:30 are quarters of an hour, 1:05-1:20 isn't? 😄",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,653.1524,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T23:44:49.110000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Which US state is going to get hardest hit? Kentucky?,YES,YES,True,True,30.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-26T00:08:45.448000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Sort of sad that a man who makes his living through analyzing politics feels this might call his integrity in question, ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates: +https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T12:00:23.867000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The distinction between lying and bullshitting is fairly clear. The liar asserts something which he himself believes to ,YES,NO,False,True,300.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-16T00:47:07.441000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree that it's a suboptimal criteria, and I also suspect most traders dont actually think it's an important differenc",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4700.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T02:45:27.983000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"But +Trump said + he wasn't using tariffs as a bargaining chip, and that there was nothing the countries could do to de",YES,YES,True,True,350.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-16T04:22:19.157000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"We're at 245% tariff for China now! +https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump",YES,YES,True,True,6825.4029,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:09.801000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I work on Azure, so I'm familiar with the current situation for Microsoft. There are already significant regulatory requ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:43:22.960000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Why the decline from 80% to 65% today? What news am I missing?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T15:41:44.422000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Not yet negative but strong downwards trend in the limited q4 data so far,YES,YES,True,True,3092.7622,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-09T10:44:39.831000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,🤦‍♂️It will also damage America's growth. Imagine trading the manufacturing of advanced goods for the manufacturing of s,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:27.761000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"thats ridiculous. Where are you going to run your infrastructure, on Alibaba? To build a serious European replacement wo",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T01:28:08.502000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I have a hard time figuring how real world events are causing the fluctuations in this market.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.2688,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T17:58:40.929000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators are not validated on a separate test set, and this is typically not done for such simple models where a p",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2063.6765,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T16:01:13.352000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Hmm Does zero imports at 104% tariff raise much tax revenue or increase the weighted average tariff rate much?,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T06:49:55.268000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://manifold.markets/Cactus/average-tariffs-under-trump-RppCgnISL2 +move my market guys. I'd do it myself but don't ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T20:51:05.189000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's ok, your explanation seems reasonable, the only minor problem was the borderline aggressive back-and-forth with the",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-19T15:09:02.878000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I don’t believe there is going to be a recession soon in US. Just some data: +-          GDP annual growth: +2.1% for 2Q",NO,NO,True,True,10.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T14:50:10.667000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"No it’s just a dip, back up at 3:30, just enjoy the ride. 😜",NO,NO,True,True,60.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T23:52:33.646000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and that is before you account for the producers in China paying part of the tariff in the form of currency valuation ch,NO,NO,True,True,5700.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T21:42:06.741000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Higher tariff on Canada than on China is some '5D chess',NO,YES,False,True,1604.4823,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,100.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T14:30:18.183000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,at a volume of $4000? Highly doubtful,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-11T11:32:22.951000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The gap between this question and this similar question seems a bit wide to me. While this question should be lower sinc,YES,NO,False,True,452.6335,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",NO,NO,True,True,5738.1803,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",NO,YES,False,True,168899.8091,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:00:04.173000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,does it also mean they will drop tariffs for those that don't charge nearly any tariffs?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.2688,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,NO,NO,True,True,1000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:09:57.981000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I highly doubt that. First of all, why not just hedge themselves within the stock market at better rates on futures or ",NO,NO,True,True,21966.2654,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..040c7dae9f2996c2efce4fc8d9c95d4b1a9b0e77 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,108 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:52:09.127000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's surprising to me how much higher this is than real-money markets. (Kalshi currently at 75%) +https://kalshi.com/mar",increase,decrease,False,True,19966.2654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",flip,decrease,False,True,599.899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-31T16:37:49.519000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Sold my position until I can better model what scenarios result in what weighted average tariff - as well as their respe,increase,decrease,False,True,136.5969,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:01:55.181000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"they are calling it free money, folks",increase,increase,True,True,55.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T00:29:15.019000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Yeah, whilst I think strictly speaking it's unambiguously worded, I nonetheless think there would be argument if the dat",increase,decrease,False,True,142401.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:50:11.280000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yup. Based on a long list of empirically tested indicators you should predict recession by EoY 2024 with at least 80 % p,increase,increase,True,True,550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:22:01.182000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,But they don't make it harder for American companies to compete in foreign markets. Pretty hard to argue that VATs are u,increase,decrease,False,True,71.8293,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T08:09:50.457000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I expect those to be rather short-lived,decrease,decrease,True,True,15189.3281,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:09:28.209000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I actually don’t know but if consumers stock up on buying in this quarter, so the second quarter has positive growth. Wo",flip,decrease,False,True,5.199,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:05:03.439000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The Colombia tariffs aren’t nearly sufficient to make the market resolve, but they’re indicative that Trump really is wi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3226.0251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False,True,2339.0148,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T04:23:49.343000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I mean that the only scenario where the Fed cuts rates is a recession with inflation remaining high and commodities skyr,hold,increase,False,True,12400.1352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:55:55.668000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,It's like walking up someone on the playground and punching them in the face while saying they're not allowed to punch b,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%. +https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",decrease,hold,False,True,912.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-14T23:08:55.144000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I have a position on this market so I'm not the one who should make a ruling. But my personal take is if there is a rece,hold,decrease,False,True,2300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,hold,increase,False,True,32527.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-30T22:49:07.722000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If Mexico and Canada don't manage to negotiate themselves out of a 25% universal tariff, this probably goes to >90% give",decrease,flip,False,True,17436.5969,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,increase,False,True,994.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-10T23:00:08.469000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q4 2024 (3rd) +2.4% +Q3 2024 +3.1% +Revisions possible after 3rd est, sure. By 3%ish? That would be outrageously large. ",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",hold,hold,True,True,21966.2654,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,decrease,False,True,277.8942,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",decrease,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,hold,increase,False,True,550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True,True,5999.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T18:29:23.101000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"This gives weighted average above the threshold, at least according to the weights that ChatGPT gave me...",decrease,decrease,True,True,15299.5535,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:17:53.164000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Maybe despite all his disclaimers to the contrary it really was a very elaborate april fools joke,increase,flip,False,True,3134.3924,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either +q2 is negative or +q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.7446,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T15:42:24.077000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Voting with $: +https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/steve-madden-announces-plan-rapidly-move-production-out-china-followin",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:56:58.584000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Retaliating is generally good practice for anyone who wants to deter aggression. That does not mean that the method of r,hold,decrease,False,True,39536.5541,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,decrease,False,True,1315.2604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:20:52.520000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"""The economic conditions of the past couple months have assuredly not been the start of a recession, so I don't see its ",hold,decrease,False,True,1163.6765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T21:23:29.523000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"pretty sure ChatGPT will assume universal tariff, whereas I think Trump will have targeted lists",decrease,hold,False,True,17436.5969,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",increase,hold,False,True,399.899,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"you might like this Axios article: +https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T07:50:27.865000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,might want to cancel your limit order,increase,decrease,False,True,3395.7482,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T21:05:59.149000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"We're gonna have a Big Beautiful Recession, the likes of which you've never seen before",decrease,decrease,True,True,2768.001,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-05T04:28:00.304000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Thanks for the second link. The first I think is pretty well known.,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:43:06.137000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,my favorite proposed retaliation in the EU is to cancel US copyright within EU borders.,hold,hold,True,True,21717.8019,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:32:14.077000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The rate of increase of unemployment (which the Sahm rule is a measure of) is an excellent recession indicator, and som",increase,decrease,False,True,39205.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-11T11:32:22.951000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The gap between this question and this similar question seems a bit wide to me. While this question should be lower sinc,decrease,decrease,True,True,452.6335,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T22:07:53.650000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wonder if they will stay bullish on the economy after seeing their long time colleagues get laid off.,increase,decrease,False,True,320.3533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-16T18:07:38.453000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Hahaha agree that forecasters should be treated skeptically. Given the rate environment, yield inversion and wider risks",hold,increase,False,True,4879.5767,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T01:54:05.341000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I believe Michigan, since they're the state with the most trade with Canada and the second most with Mexico, doubly so w",flip,increase,False,True,3648.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T18:41:41.082000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yield curve inversion is just expectations of rate cuts. Normally that happens during recessions but it can also happen ,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,decrease,False,True,965.2996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-10T22:03:22.727000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,This market should now track the chances of Kamala winning.,hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-21T19:26:33.754000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Welcome to tariffs +This is tariffs +Welcome +This is tariffs +Welcome to tariffs +You can do anything at tariffs, Anyth",hold,hold,True,True,186218.5666,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-12T01:25:53.138000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"there are at least three entirely different definitions of recessions used by markets on this site! +Adding to the title",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-28T23:05:23.679000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Tax Foundation estimates the rate at 8%+ + +if + Trump continues following through on his main proposals. The ""will the",increase,decrease,False,True,3600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T20:29:06.331000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"People are suddenly realizing that ""Trump is obviously just saying things, he won't actually do them"" is as wrong now as",increase,increase,True,True,1218.3102,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",decrease,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T20:22:37.569000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,the obvious: observation of and thus renewed speculation on the translation of Trump's campaign platform to real policy ,increase,hold,False,True,20.0719,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,decrease,decrease,True,True,25670.9364,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,hold,increase,False,True,4000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-19T00:19:16.264000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"In July, the Federal Reserve staff announced that they were no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, marking a sharp d",hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T17:58:40.929000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators are not validated on a separate test set, and this is typically not done for such simple models where a p",increase,hold,False,True,2063.6765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-08T20:08:25.450000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Good one, but the Sahm Rule has already triggered. The text on the rightmost door should be ""yield curve disinversion"".",increase,increase,True,True,2063.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,hold,decrease,False,True,18.671,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T11:53:11.638000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with Chris, the language is very clear. Initial estimate is what it says, any other reading required assuming th",hold,increase,False,True,4650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T22:06:44.631000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"ah, I see. Hm, maybe. I'm not sure and I'd probably bet this back up if not for the low unemployment numbers the past tw",hold,decrease,False,True,973.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:04:53.135000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"or was it two consecutive negative quarters needed to qualify for recession,don't remember",hold,decrease,False,True,9872.0608,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,increase,False,True,111.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T19:43:17.257000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm feeling like there isn't going to be a recession!,increase,increase,True,True,97583.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:43:24.231000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The +Sahm Rule + paper, released in 2019, is based on monthly unemployment data that was not available prior to 1970. 1",flip,decrease,False,True,599.899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:38:07.494000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"When finding good recession indicators there are two things we are looking for (as with any good statistical model): +1.",increase,decrease,False,True,2063.6765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:12:14.789000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I also doubt that Q2 will be negative because they tried driving consumers to panic buy unless it’s like slightly more t,flip,hold,False,True,5.199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T12:39:53.540000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-2025-.html +The first estimate of Q1 GDP was negative. This market will resolve Y",increase,increase,True,True,8550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-17T18:43:41.750000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.,hold,hold,True,True,197.9576,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T00:15:39+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,had this all prepared and everything,hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:12:24.671000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they had already priced the tariffs in?,increase,decrease,False,True,613.3469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-24T04:25:12.164000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Seems like a large spread between real money market and mana market.,hold,hold,True,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T14:33:48.870000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I didn't claim any love for Trump, but it's interesting you suggested that. It's as if trying to understand Trumpism is ",hold,hold,True,True,5600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:02:40.159000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For those who believe the Sahm rule indicates the US is already in recession, here is a market for you:",increase,hold,False,True,57255.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T04:39:45.348000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I couldn't have said it better myself >:(,decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2d19b0d8a21975e98651568b164defbcd92414b4 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,62 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,decrease,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-21T19:26:33.754000+00:00,"Welcome to tariffs +This is tariffs +Welcome +This is tariffs +Welcome to tariffs +You can do anything at tariffs, Anyth",hold,hold,True +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,I should really only use limit orders that expire,hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-24T04:25:12.164000+00:00,Seems like a large spread between real money market and mana market.,hold,decrease,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T11:53:11.638000+00:00,"I agree with Chris, the language is very clear. Initial estimate is what it says, any other reading required assuming th",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:43:06.137000+00:00,my favorite proposed retaliation in the EU is to cancel US copyright within EU borders.,hold,decrease,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-16T18:07:38.453000+00:00,"Hahaha agree that forecasters should be treated skeptically. Given the rate environment, yield inversion and wider risks",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%. +https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",decrease,decrease,True +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,"you might like this Axios article: +https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",hold,decrease,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,decrease,decrease,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T18:41:41.082000+00:00,Yield curve inversion is just expectations of rate cuts. Normally that happens during recessions but it can also happen ,decrease,hold,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either +q2 is negative or +q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,decrease,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T00:15:39+00:00,had this all prepared and everything,hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:56:58.584000+00:00,Retaliating is generally good practice for anyone who wants to deter aggression. That does not mean that the method of r,hold,decrease,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-19T00:19:16.264000+00:00,"In July, the Federal Reserve staff announced that they were no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, marking a sharp d",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T22:06:44.631000+00:00,"ah, I see. Hm, maybe. I'm not sure and I'd probably bet this back up if not for the low unemployment numbers the past tw",hold,decrease,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-17T18:43:41.750000+00:00,we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.,hold,decrease,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-10T22:03:22.727000+00:00,This market should now track the chances of Kamala winning.,hold,decrease,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-11T11:32:22.951000+00:00,The gap between this question and this similar question seems a bit wide to me. While this question should be lower sinc,decrease,decrease,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T21:05:59.149000+00:00,"We're gonna have a Big Beautiful Recession, the likes of which you've never seen before",decrease,decrease,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:55:55.668000+00:00,It's like walking up someone on the playground and punching them in the face while saying they're not allowed to punch b,hold,decrease,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T21:23:29.523000+00:00,"pretty sure ChatGPT will assume universal tariff, whereas I think Trump will have targeted lists",decrease,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:04:53.135000+00:00,"or was it two consecutive negative quarters needed to qualify for recession,don't remember",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T04:23:49.343000+00:00,I mean that the only scenario where the Fed cuts rates is a recession with inflation remaining high and commodities skyr,hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-30T22:49:07.722000+00:00,"If Mexico and Canada don't manage to negotiate themselves out of a 25% universal tariff, this probably goes to >90% give",decrease,decrease,True +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,decrease,decrease,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T18:29:23.101000+00:00,"This gives weighted average above the threshold, at least according to the weights that ChatGPT gave me...",decrease,decrease,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T04:39:45.348000+00:00,I couldn't have said it better myself >:(,decrease,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:20:52.520000+00:00,"""The economic conditions of the past couple months have assuredly not been the start of a recession, so I don't see its ",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T08:09:50.457000+00:00,I expect those to be rather short-lived,decrease,decrease,True +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,hold,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-14T23:08:55.144000+00:00,I have a position on this market so I'm not the one who should make a ruling. But my personal take is if there is a rece,hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T15:42:24.077000+00:00,"Voting with $: +https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/steve-madden-announces-plan-rapidly-move-production-out-china-followin",hold,decrease,False +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T14:33:48.870000+00:00,"I didn't claim any love for Trump, but it's interesting you suggested that. It's as if trying to understand Trumpism is ",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d7cc71000f39aeb74cbdc6b36624857de55e4246 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,44 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-21T19:26:33.754000+00:00,"Welcome to tariffs +This is tariffs +Welcome +This is tariffs +Welcome to tariffs +You can do anything at tariffs, Anyth",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-16T18:07:38.453000+00:00,"Hahaha agree that forecasters should be treated skeptically. Given the rate environment, yield inversion and wider risks",hold,hold,True +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-14T23:08:55.144000+00:00,I have a position on this market so I'm not the one who should make a ruling. But my personal take is if there is a rece,hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-19T00:19:16.264000+00:00,"In July, the Federal Reserve staff announced that they were no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, marking a sharp d",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:43:06.137000+00:00,my favorite proposed retaliation in the EU is to cancel US copyright within EU borders.,hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T04:23:49.343000+00:00,I mean that the only scenario where the Fed cuts rates is a recession with inflation remaining high and commodities skyr,hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:04:53.135000+00:00,"or was it two consecutive negative quarters needed to qualify for recession,don't remember",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T15:42:24.077000+00:00,"Voting with $: +https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/steve-madden-announces-plan-rapidly-move-production-out-china-followin",hold,flip,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",flip,hold,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:09:28.209000+00:00,"I actually don’t know but if consumers stock up on buying in this quarter, so the second quarter has positive growth. Wo",flip,flip,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-10T22:03:22.727000+00:00,This market should now track the chances of Kamala winning.,hold,flip,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,hold,flip,False +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-24T04:25:12.164000+00:00,Seems like a large spread between real money market and mana market.,hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:43:24.231000+00:00,"The +Sahm Rule + paper, released in 2019, is based on monthly unemployment data that was not available prior to 1970. 1",flip,hold,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:12:14.789000+00:00,I also doubt that Q2 will be negative because they tried driving consumers to panic buy unless it’s like slightly more t,flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",hold,hold,True +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-17T18:43:41.750000+00:00,we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.,hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:56:58.584000+00:00,Retaliating is generally good practice for anyone who wants to deter aggression. That does not mean that the method of r,hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T14:33:48.870000+00:00,"I didn't claim any love for Trump, but it's interesting you suggested that. It's as if trying to understand Trumpism is ",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,"you might like this Axios article: +https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",hold,flip,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T00:15:39+00:00,had this all prepared and everything,hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T01:54:05.341000+00:00,"I believe Michigan, since they're the state with the most trade with Canada and the second most with Mexico, doubly so w",flip,flip,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:55:55.668000+00:00,It's like walking up someone on the playground and punching them in the face while saying they're not allowed to punch b,hold,flip,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:20:52.520000+00:00,"""The economic conditions of the past couple months have assuredly not been the start of a recession, so I don't see its ",hold,flip,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,hold,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T11:53:11.638000+00:00,"I agree with Chris, the language is very clear. Initial estimate is what it says, any other reading required assuming th",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T22:06:44.631000+00:00,"ah, I see. Hm, maybe. I'm not sure and I'd probably bet this back up if not for the low unemployment numbers the past tw",hold,hold,True +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,I should really only use limit orders that expire,hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..25d82c1ed35fa3c86dab54270f6de811d745d5cc --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,83 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T16:37:17.783000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Do you genuinely believe that the US was wealthier and more prosperous in the 1890s? The data seems to disagree, at leas",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-11T00:33:16.217000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Given loans exist again I think it makes sense to bet it down more. Otherwise just wasn't worth it.,hold,increase,False,True,220393.0665,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",hold,hold,True,True,11319.3406,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,increase,hold,False,True,613.3469,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T22:52:50.507000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/02/01/us/trump-tariffs-news?smid=url-share + +It's official 25% tariff on both Canada",increase,increase,True,True,4606.9635,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:22:11.018000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Sahm rule about as scientific as the 13 keys to the election,increase,decrease,False,True,3.8434,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:06:25.463000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If we have high inflation, don't stocks keep going up in dollar terms even if they fall in real value?",increase,hold,False,True,1100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-24T04:25:12.164000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Seems like a large spread between real money market and mana market.,hold,hold,True,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T23:30:35.260000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"probably not, they've been betting on it for many months.",hold,hold,True,True,2923.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T00:29:15.019000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Yeah, whilst I think strictly speaking it's unambiguously worded, I nonetheless think there would be argument if the dat",increase,decrease,False,True,142401.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-11T10:12:38.589000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"IMO Trump is more likely to engage in unhinged reckless stimulus to handle/prevent a recession than Harris. Thus, from a",hold,increase,False,True,3313.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:46:33.635000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I have two markets on recession in 2024 on the negative GDP and the NBER criteria, and they have strikingly different pr",increase,decrease,False,True,1999.0244,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True,True,5999.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",hold,hold,True,True,14950.9342,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T22:13:03.228000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and other lies you can tell yourself to justify voting for Trump,increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-20T10:18:34.057000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Hi everyone! +Note that I'm new here (I didn't read comments older than ~3 months). +Let me first summarize the +argum",increase,increase,True,True,139.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T00:54:00.472000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"with more risk and at a lower rate of expected return. I imagine lots of people have been busy calculating the +Trump ",hold,decrease,False,True,11319.3406,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,increase,True,True,372.3533,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:20:28.233000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the order book on Polymarket doesn't look that deep. I'm not sure if I'm reading it right ( +https://polymarket.com/even",increase,decrease,False,True,6899.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,increase,False,True,994.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T02:12:01.635000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The total U.S. average effective tariff rate is 17.8% +https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/12/after-uk-china-trade-deals-tariff",increase,increase,True,True,134.2006,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T13:19:16.026000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Do you know how many months on average (and min, max) between the Sahm rule is triggered and the onset of a recession ba",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:12:24.671000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they had already priced the tariffs in?,increase,decrease,False,True,613.3469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T12:43:31.382000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,this is all to answer the same question as this market,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T00:46:21.050000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,who's more foolish the fool or the fool who believes him?,hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,increase,False,True,111.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T18:41:41.082000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yield curve inversion is just expectations of rate cuts. Normally that happens during recessions but it can also happen ,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:20:52.520000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"""The economic conditions of the past couple months have assuredly not been the start of a recession, so I don't see its ",hold,decrease,False,True,1163.6765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-26T01:27:27.531000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Kalshi currently has a 94% chance of Q3 GDP growth coming in above 0.0% +https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgdp/us-gdp-growth",hold,increase,False,True,1284.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-01T23:24:47.853000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Tariffs will make our country wealthy again (restore 1890’s levels of prosperity to our great country),increase,increase,True,True,85765.0257,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False,True,2339.0148,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-10T23:00:08.469000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q4 2024 (3rd) +2.4% +Q3 2024 +3.1% +Revisions possible after 3rd est, sure. By 3%ish? That would be outrageously large. ",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T04:39:45.348000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I couldn't have said it better myself >:(,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-17T18:43:41.750000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.,hold,hold,True,True,197.9576,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:22:57.323000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"So, high tariffs were imposed on 2nd April, which conveniently is the start of a quarter. It's now pretty much the end o",increase,increase,True,True,30611.8738,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either +q2 is negative or +q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.7446,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:26:38.745000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I get that TACO is a thing, but 6% isn't very high, and market resolution just needs one quarter. I think it's just a ca",hold,increase,False,True,32361.8738,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3226.0251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T18:01:34.836000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,It's still at least 10% for now.,hold,decrease,False,True,2932.1189,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:13:30.808000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"much more complicated than that (and my declaration itself is of course oversimplified, since currency appreciation can ",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,decrease,False,True,1315.2604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:55:10.620000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Correct. Simply look at the the 10Y2Y spread on FRED. Resteepening above 0 typically signals imminent recession.,increase,hold,False,True,550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:52:09.127000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's surprising to me how much higher this is than real-money markets. (Kalshi currently at 75%) +https://kalshi.com/mar",increase,decrease,False,True,19966.2654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",hold,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,decrease,False,True,965.2996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,decrease,decrease,True,True,25670.9364,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T20:53:44.201000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Wow. The negotiation tactics are getting better and better,increase,increase,True,True,181.8293,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:28:49.363000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Yes - this one is the ""two quarters of negative growth"" recession definition, that one is the ""NBER declares it"" recessi",hold,hold,True,True,8000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",increase,hold,False,True,399.899,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:01:55.181000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"they are calling it free money, folks",increase,increase,True,True,55.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T00:56:40.917000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Am I going crazy? +High tariffs, weak job numbers, labour bureau being gutted Q1 negative GDP growth. +Still below 20%",increase,increase,True,True,56456.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:06:43.085000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"jobs are somewhat concerning, but Q2 GDP looked great! +The disconnect between jobs and GDP is confusing, but it sounds ",increase,decrease,False,True,255300.828,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:05:03.439000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The Colombia tariffs aren’t nearly sufficient to make the market resolve, but they’re indicative that Trump really is wi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:29.610000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump didn't say anything about 25% on US/Mex until last night, so would be impressive if it was already priced in",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:32:14.077000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The rate of increase of unemployment (which the Sahm rule is a measure of) is an excellent recession indicator, and som",increase,decrease,False,True,39205.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T21:11:23.591000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought he could still implement tariffs for up to 150 days under emergency economic powers act,hold,flip,False,True,5200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..77e454382582e5b3857504b8287ba9b34bb4d685 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,94 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T01:54:05.341000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I believe Michigan, since they're the state with the most trade with Canada and the second most with Mexico, doubly so w",flip,increase,False,True,3648.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:17:53.164000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Maybe despite all his disclaimers to the contrary it really was a very elaborate april fools joke,increase,flip,False,True,3134.3924,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:12:14.789000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I also doubt that Q2 will be negative because they tried driving consumers to panic buy unless it’s like slightly more t,flip,hold,False,True,5.199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:06:25.463000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If we have high inflation, don't stocks keep going up in dollar terms even if they fall in real value?",increase,hold,False,True,1100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T22:29:12.221000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Thanks, yeah, I got that off of a quick GPT search myself, but want to sus out if there are some experts in the room.",hold,hold,True,True,711.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:06:43.085000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"jobs are somewhat concerning, but Q2 GDP looked great! +The disconnect between jobs and GDP is confusing, but it sounds ",increase,decrease,False,True,255300.828,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T18:41:41.082000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yield curve inversion is just expectations of rate cuts. Normally that happens during recessions but it can also happen ,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,hold,increase,False,True,550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:08:12.073000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"without US tech companies, how will Europeans send messages to each other over the internet!?",hold,hold,True,True,21717.8019,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False,True,2339.0148,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T09:17:01.047000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For each recession over the last 100 years, top Wall Street bankers have long lists of indicators that preceded every pr",increase,decrease,False,True,1399.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T04:39:45.348000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I couldn't have said it better myself >:(,decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,decrease,False,True,1315.2604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:34:04.967000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Also, in the past the recession had ALREADY BEGUN each time the Sahm rule indicated a recession. The economic condition",increase,hold,False,True,3.8434,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:31:15.479000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"wow, the entire economy has to deal with massive uncertainty, america loses credibility for violating a trade deal, and ",hold,decrease,False,True,39536.5541,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T10:31:29.216000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I'm not rely reliying on the ""every recession so far"" analysis +More just that oil up -> inflation up -> rate expectati",hold,decrease,False,True,16619.9406,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True,True,5999.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T15:46:16.881000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they should go insider trade the stock market like proper criminals.,hold,hold,True,True,32848.6018,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:12:24.671000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they had already priced the tariffs in?,increase,decrease,False,True,613.3469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,increase,False,True,111.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-03T23:24:51.550000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I think Manifold has an unusually high risk-free interest rate at the moment—even for Manifold—because of the pivot to r,hold,hold,True,True,2439.9643,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:02:40.159000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For those who believe the Sahm rule indicates the US is already in recession, here is a market for you:",increase,hold,False,True,57255.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T17:05:51.919000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,you literally only linked that because you're the creator of that market and you're shilling it. Obviously if Trump DOE,hold,hold,True,True,5769.0754,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",decrease,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:22:11.018000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Sahm rule about as scientific as the 13 keys to the election,increase,decrease,False,True,3.8434,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T21:23:29.523000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"pretty sure ChatGPT will assume universal tariff, whereas I think Trump will have targeted lists",decrease,hold,False,True,17436.5969,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:40:48.173000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,With current commodities skyrocketing it seems unlikely cuts happen until unemployment rises.,hold,hold,True,True,10681.1985,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T20:53:44.201000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Wow. The negotiation tactics are getting better and better,increase,increase,True,True,181.8293,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-10T11:07:17.279000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"always looks like no recession until there is one - financial market stress from BoJ, higher rates, commercial real esta",hold,increase,False,True,3979.7622,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:20:28.233000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the order book on Polymarket doesn't look that deep. I'm not sure if I'm reading it right ( +https://polymarket.com/even",increase,decrease,False,True,6899.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,decrease,decrease,True,True,25670.9364,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:33:54.515000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I mean, that's a lot more money than I would want to bet anyway. The only other time I've made a real money bet I put do",increase,decrease,False,True,32661.8738,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-19T12:08:25.411000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,literally the barebones basics of tariffs: they are applied based on the value (not cost!) of the item or by the weight ,hold,hold,True,True,7877.5314,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,decrease,False,True,277.8942,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:46:33.635000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I have two markets on recession in 2024 on the negative GDP and the NBER criteria, and they have strikingly different pr",increase,decrease,False,True,1999.0244,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T05:08:38.801000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""Thank you for playing."" - Kevin Burke",increase,decrease,False,True,142068.5666,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T11:18:45.901000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For anyone reading the current pricing in both markets (40 % vs 39 %), feel free to arb this one or add liquidity if you",hold,hold,True,True,1163.6765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:51:27.840000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ya, it's based on FRED quarterly rates, so likely it will resolve at earliest after Q2.",increase,hold,False,True,19966.2654,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either +q2 is negative or +q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.7446,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"you might like this Axios article: +https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:06:03.429000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Yes I think that's the case. But happy to leave any dispute on this to others as I have a large position here - though t,hold,decrease,False,True,125371.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-25T12:41:51.480000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q1 GDP comes in much weaker than expected, PCE deflator suggests hotter inflation than expected. Deffo think this marke",hold,increase,False,True,19263.9406,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-05T04:28:00.304000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Thanks for the second link. The first I think is pretty well known.,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T03:37:51.701000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Yo, can you resolve some of your questions?",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T22:13:03.228000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and other lies you can tell yourself to justify voting for Trump,increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T23:31:59.357000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I wonder who they will blame when the US economy starts getting wrecked by all the retaliatory tariffs? Obama?,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-01T23:24:47.853000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Tariffs will make our country wealthy again (restore 1890’s levels of prosperity to our great country),increase,increase,True,True,85765.0257,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-20T12:39:11.614000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""Politics is full of bad people who more often than not do good things"". +Jim crow. Operation wetback. Vietnam. Iraq... ",hold,hold,True,True,310.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T16:28:02.523000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Why was this trading >10% higher than an equivalent market on Kalshi? +https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlargetariff/trump-ta",hold,decrease,False,True,14920.0754,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",increase,hold,False,True,1550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,decrease,False,True,965.2996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T13:42:37.123000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I agree. Trends on prediction markets: +Here: min of 13% in May, now 21% +Kalshi +: min of 7% in April, now 11% +Metacu",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,increase,False,True,994.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T22:14:45.576000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Seasonal adjustment has been an issue for the post-COVID Januaries - January numbers are always blowouts. They use a sea,increase,decrease,False,True,320.3533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3226.0251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-14T08:21:13.050000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"If Q3 GDP is positive, this market will resolve no. +Q3 ends 9/30/25 +Kalshi currently predicts growth of 1.8% +And pred",hold,hold,True,True,257.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-11T10:12:38.589000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"IMO Trump is more likely to engage in unhinged reckless stimulus to handle/prevent a recession than Harris. Thus, from a",hold,increase,False,True,3313.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-20T10:18:34.057000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Hi everyone! +Note that I'm new here (I didn't read comments older than ~3 months). +Let me first summarize the +argum",increase,increase,True,True,139.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:09:28.209000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I actually don’t know but if consumers stock up on buying in this quarter, so the second quarter has positive growth. Wo",flip,decrease,False,True,5.199,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",increase,hold,False,True,399.899,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T22:08:13.181000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,It was pretty obvious with the rapid interest rate hikes and the inverted yield curve.,increase,hold,False,True,17997.1352,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,hold,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T21:26:15.446000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i didn't say EVERYONE was realizing it 🙂‍↔️,increase,hold,False,True,1218.3102,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T13:33:28.816000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Looking at history: By the time the Sahm Rule has triggered, the economy has already entered a recession (NBER) every si",hold,increase,False,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..040c7dae9f2996c2efce4fc8d9c95d4b1a9b0e77 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,108 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:52:09.127000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's surprising to me how much higher this is than real-money markets. (Kalshi currently at 75%) +https://kalshi.com/mar",increase,decrease,False,True,19966.2654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",flip,decrease,False,True,599.899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-31T16:37:49.519000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Sold my position until I can better model what scenarios result in what weighted average tariff - as well as their respe,increase,decrease,False,True,136.5969,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:01:55.181000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"they are calling it free money, folks",increase,increase,True,True,55.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T00:29:15.019000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Yeah, whilst I think strictly speaking it's unambiguously worded, I nonetheless think there would be argument if the dat",increase,decrease,False,True,142401.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:50:11.280000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yup. Based on a long list of empirically tested indicators you should predict recession by EoY 2024 with at least 80 % p,increase,increase,True,True,550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:22:01.182000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,But they don't make it harder for American companies to compete in foreign markets. Pretty hard to argue that VATs are u,increase,decrease,False,True,71.8293,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T08:09:50.457000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I expect those to be rather short-lived,decrease,decrease,True,True,15189.3281,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:09:28.209000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I actually don’t know but if consumers stock up on buying in this quarter, so the second quarter has positive growth. Wo",flip,decrease,False,True,5.199,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:05:03.439000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The Colombia tariffs aren’t nearly sufficient to make the market resolve, but they’re indicative that Trump really is wi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3226.0251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False,True,2339.0148,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T04:23:49.343000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I mean that the only scenario where the Fed cuts rates is a recession with inflation remaining high and commodities skyr,hold,increase,False,True,12400.1352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:55:55.668000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,It's like walking up someone on the playground and punching them in the face while saying they're not allowed to punch b,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%. +https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",decrease,hold,False,True,912.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-14T23:08:55.144000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I have a position on this market so I'm not the one who should make a ruling. But my personal take is if there is a rece,hold,decrease,False,True,2300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,hold,increase,False,True,32527.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-30T22:49:07.722000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If Mexico and Canada don't manage to negotiate themselves out of a 25% universal tariff, this probably goes to >90% give",decrease,flip,False,True,17436.5969,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,increase,False,True,994.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-10T23:00:08.469000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q4 2024 (3rd) +2.4% +Q3 2024 +3.1% +Revisions possible after 3rd est, sure. By 3%ish? That would be outrageously large. ",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",hold,hold,True,True,21966.2654,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,decrease,False,True,277.8942,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",decrease,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,hold,increase,False,True,550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True,True,5999.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T18:29:23.101000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"This gives weighted average above the threshold, at least according to the weights that ChatGPT gave me...",decrease,decrease,True,True,15299.5535,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:17:53.164000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Maybe despite all his disclaimers to the contrary it really was a very elaborate april fools joke,increase,flip,False,True,3134.3924,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either +q2 is negative or +q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.7446,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T15:42:24.077000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Voting with $: +https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/steve-madden-announces-plan-rapidly-move-production-out-china-followin",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:56:58.584000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Retaliating is generally good practice for anyone who wants to deter aggression. That does not mean that the method of r,hold,decrease,False,True,39536.5541,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,decrease,False,True,1315.2604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:20:52.520000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"""The economic conditions of the past couple months have assuredly not been the start of a recession, so I don't see its ",hold,decrease,False,True,1163.6765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T21:23:29.523000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"pretty sure ChatGPT will assume universal tariff, whereas I think Trump will have targeted lists",decrease,hold,False,True,17436.5969,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",increase,hold,False,True,399.899,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"you might like this Axios article: +https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T07:50:27.865000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,might want to cancel your limit order,increase,decrease,False,True,3395.7482,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T21:05:59.149000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"We're gonna have a Big Beautiful Recession, the likes of which you've never seen before",decrease,decrease,True,True,2768.001,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-05T04:28:00.304000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Thanks for the second link. The first I think is pretty well known.,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:43:06.137000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,my favorite proposed retaliation in the EU is to cancel US copyright within EU borders.,hold,hold,True,True,21717.8019,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:32:14.077000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The rate of increase of unemployment (which the Sahm rule is a measure of) is an excellent recession indicator, and som",increase,decrease,False,True,39205.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-11T11:32:22.951000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The gap between this question and this similar question seems a bit wide to me. While this question should be lower sinc,decrease,decrease,True,True,452.6335,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T22:07:53.650000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wonder if they will stay bullish on the economy after seeing their long time colleagues get laid off.,increase,decrease,False,True,320.3533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-16T18:07:38.453000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Hahaha agree that forecasters should be treated skeptically. Given the rate environment, yield inversion and wider risks",hold,increase,False,True,4879.5767,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T01:54:05.341000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I believe Michigan, since they're the state with the most trade with Canada and the second most with Mexico, doubly so w",flip,increase,False,True,3648.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T18:41:41.082000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yield curve inversion is just expectations of rate cuts. Normally that happens during recessions but it can also happen ,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,decrease,False,True,965.2996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-10T22:03:22.727000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,This market should now track the chances of Kamala winning.,hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-21T19:26:33.754000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Welcome to tariffs +This is tariffs +Welcome +This is tariffs +Welcome to tariffs +You can do anything at tariffs, Anyth",hold,hold,True,True,186218.5666,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-12T01:25:53.138000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"there are at least three entirely different definitions of recessions used by markets on this site! +Adding to the title",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-28T23:05:23.679000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Tax Foundation estimates the rate at 8%+ + +if + Trump continues following through on his main proposals. The ""will the",increase,decrease,False,True,3600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T20:29:06.331000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"People are suddenly realizing that ""Trump is obviously just saying things, he won't actually do them"" is as wrong now as",increase,increase,True,True,1218.3102,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",decrease,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T20:22:37.569000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,the obvious: observation of and thus renewed speculation on the translation of Trump's campaign platform to real policy ,increase,hold,False,True,20.0719,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,decrease,decrease,True,True,25670.9364,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,hold,increase,False,True,4000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-19T00:19:16.264000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"In July, the Federal Reserve staff announced that they were no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, marking a sharp d",hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T17:58:40.929000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators are not validated on a separate test set, and this is typically not done for such simple models where a p",increase,hold,False,True,2063.6765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-08T20:08:25.450000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Good one, but the Sahm Rule has already triggered. The text on the rightmost door should be ""yield curve disinversion"".",increase,increase,True,True,2063.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,hold,decrease,False,True,18.671,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T11:53:11.638000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with Chris, the language is very clear. Initial estimate is what it says, any other reading required assuming th",hold,increase,False,True,4650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T22:06:44.631000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"ah, I see. Hm, maybe. I'm not sure and I'd probably bet this back up if not for the low unemployment numbers the past tw",hold,decrease,False,True,973.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:04:53.135000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"or was it two consecutive negative quarters needed to qualify for recession,don't remember",hold,decrease,False,True,9872.0608,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,increase,False,True,111.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T19:43:17.257000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm feeling like there isn't going to be a recession!,increase,increase,True,True,97583.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:43:24.231000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The +Sahm Rule + paper, released in 2019, is based on monthly unemployment data that was not available prior to 1970. 1",flip,decrease,False,True,599.899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:38:07.494000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"When finding good recession indicators there are two things we are looking for (as with any good statistical model): +1.",increase,decrease,False,True,2063.6765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:12:14.789000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I also doubt that Q2 will be negative because they tried driving consumers to panic buy unless it’s like slightly more t,flip,hold,False,True,5.199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T12:39:53.540000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-2025-.html +The first estimate of Q1 GDP was negative. This market will resolve Y",increase,increase,True,True,8550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-17T18:43:41.750000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.,hold,hold,True,True,197.9576,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T00:15:39+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,had this all prepared and everything,hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:12:24.671000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they had already priced the tariffs in?,increase,decrease,False,True,613.3469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-24T04:25:12.164000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Seems like a large spread between real money market and mana market.,hold,hold,True,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T14:33:48.870000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I didn't claim any love for Trump, but it's interesting you suggested that. It's as if trying to understand Trumpism is ",hold,hold,True,True,5600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:02:40.159000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For those who believe the Sahm rule indicates the US is already in recession, here is a market for you:",increase,hold,False,True,57255.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T04:39:45.348000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I couldn't have said it better myself >:(,decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ae8c328121466db1d55e14955d7d979df928b16f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,83 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T21:26:15.446000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i didn't say EVERYONE was realizing it 🙂‍↔️,increase,hold,False,True,1218.3102,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-11T15:08:48.517000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I want to exit my NO shares, but this market is still trading 12% above Kalshi...",hold,decrease,False,True,17020.0754,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True,True,5999.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T12:39:53.540000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-2025-.html +The first estimate of Q1 GDP was negative. This market will resolve Y",increase,increase,True,True,8550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T12:07:44.286000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Nice to see you Mr. PA swing state boy.,hold,hold,True,True,61.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3226.0251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-25T00:01:19.592000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-05T04:28:00.304000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Thanks for the second link. The first I think is pretty well known.,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-31T11:05:07.266000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-f1f52940-4e79-11ef-bc79-eb394d3f3d81.html +""Last time hiring was this low,",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well. +https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",hold,increase,False,True,10225.4021,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,increase,True,True,372.3533,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:01:55.181000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"they are calling it free money, folks",increase,increase,True,True,55.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:21:49.453000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yeah it would be a recession but 2024 GDP growth would still be at least 1.5%,hold,decrease,False,True,12400.1352,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:22:57.323000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"So, high tariffs were imposed on 2nd April, which conveniently is the start of a quarter. It's now pretty much the end o",increase,increase,True,True,30611.8738,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:55:10.620000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Correct. Simply look at the the 10Y2Y spread on FRED. Resteepening above 0 typically signals imminent recession.,increase,hold,False,True,550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:12:24.671000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they had already priced the tariffs in?,increase,decrease,False,True,613.3469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-10T13:14:20.648000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Whilst this is true it doesn't really point to a recession. Inflation falling faster than expected would mean demand had,hold,increase,False,True,7569.5098,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:32:14.077000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The rate of increase of unemployment (which the Sahm rule is a measure of) is an excellent recession indicator, and som",increase,decrease,False,True,39205.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-19T12:08:25.411000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,literally the barebones basics of tariffs: they are applied based on the value (not cost!) of the item or by the weight ,hold,hold,True,True,7877.5314,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T22:13:03.228000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and other lies you can tell yourself to justify voting for Trump,increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-28T23:05:23.679000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Tax Foundation estimates the rate at 8%+ + +if + Trump continues following through on his main proposals. The ""will the",hold,decrease,False,True,3600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-11T10:12:38.589000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"IMO Trump is more likely to engage in unhinged reckless stimulus to handle/prevent a recession than Harris. Thus, from a",hold,increase,False,True,3313.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:46:33.635000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I have two markets on recession in 2024 on the negative GDP and the NBER criteria, and they have strikingly different pr",increase,decrease,False,True,1999.0244,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T13:02:28.006000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Kalshi 76% for the full year, Poly 71% for just Q1/Q2. Still some TACO going on here too.",hold,decrease,False,True,13096.4995,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",increase,hold,False,True,1550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-19T01:34:09.783000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"will this market resolve when Q3 advance estimate comes out, given growth is positive?",hold,hold,True,True,130179.179,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False,True,2339.0148,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T22:52:50.507000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/02/01/us/trump-tariffs-news?smid=url-share + +It's official 25% tariff on both Canada",increase,increase,True,True,4606.9635,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,increase,False,True,994.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,hold,increase,False,True,4000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:06:25.463000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If we have high inflation, don't stocks keep going up in dollar terms even if they fall in real value?",increase,hold,False,True,1100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:52:09.127000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's surprising to me how much higher this is than real-money markets. (Kalshi currently at 75%) +https://kalshi.com/mar",increase,decrease,False,True,19966.2654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T00:13:40.232000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"What happened is that for Q1, it wasn't really a down quarter - imports were just moved forward; that skews the stats. +",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,increase,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,decrease,decrease,True,True,25670.9364,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,hold,hold,True,True,8595.2894,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:53:49.387000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,This is going to be spectacularly idiotic,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T22:35:13.240000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"My issue is when you say those indicators all flash red, it sounds like overfitting to me. Wouldn't that imply close to ",hold,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either +q2 is negative or +q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.7446,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",hold,decrease,False,True,965.2996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,decrease,False,True,1315.2604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-18T14:40:31.349000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Crude, perhaps, but elegant, and not vulnerable to things like force-fitting +Nicholas movie appearances against drowni",increase,hold,False,True,750.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:33:54.515000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I mean, that's a lot more money than I would want to bet anyway. The only other time I've made a real money bet I put do",increase,decrease,False,True,32661.8738,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-06T00:05:24.070000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Folks think it will be hard for EU to replace US software that runs data centers. +Meanwhile EU has put suspending US c",hold,increase,False,True,21717.8019,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:18:40.755000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering historical data as well as recent developments I believe this bet is profitable +at least + as long as it i",hold,increase,False,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T16:37:12+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"When will we get the Sahm Rule indicator for June 2024? +https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:21:46.928000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Has anyone done the maths on what the weighted average will look like under a 10% China tariff? +Imo, this tariff busine",increase,increase,True,True,511.535,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-09-16T08:51:28.375000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Nice and vague: The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be",increase,hold,False,True,4893.9404,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-10T23:00:08.469000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q4 2024 (3rd) +2.4% +Q3 2024 +3.1% +Revisions possible after 3rd est, sure. By 3%ish? That would be outrageously large. ",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-11T00:33:16.217000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Given loans exist again I think it makes sense to bet it down more. Otherwise just wasn't worth it.,hold,increase,False,True,220393.0665,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:22:11.018000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Sahm rule about as scientific as the 13 keys to the election,increase,decrease,False,True,3.8434,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T04:39:45.348000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I couldn't have said it better myself >:(,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T18:26:54.847000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"hmm, no there are plenty of exempt categories of goods, but it's probably around 8% or something if I had to guess wildl",hold,decrease,False,True,19566.2654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T03:06:43.085000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"jobs are somewhat concerning, but Q2 GDP looked great! +The disconnect between jobs and GDP is confusing, but it sounds ",increase,decrease,False,True,255300.828,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,increase,False,True,111.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-03T21:11:08.355000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Arb (though this market should be higher, not equal) with:",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:12:33.880000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,sure - I should get a liquidity injection over the next few days and then will take up your order and explain,hold,hold,True,True,16134.9406,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7a78bc15500f562f8301721c6d0714568f58fa7b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,113 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-13T10:45:49.518000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"What are we even waiting for, Callum or St Louis Fed? Or is it either?",hold,hold,True,True,2337.2312,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",flip,decrease,False,True,599.899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T15:12:43.391000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ok, I understand it a lot better now thank you.",decrease,hold,False,True,2654.4823,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T00:29:15.019000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Yeah, whilst I think strictly speaking it's unambiguously worded, I nonetheless think there would be argument if the dat",increase,decrease,False,True,142401.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:22:01.182000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,But they don't make it harder for American companies to compete in foreign markets. Pretty hard to argue that VATs are u,increase,decrease,False,True,71.8293,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:10:02.674000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I mean he's right that from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff (both are a tax o,hold,hold,True,True,576.6927,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",increase,hold,False,True,9872.0608,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-02T00:56:40.917000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Am I going crazy? +High tariffs, weak job numbers, labour bureau being gutted Q1 negative GDP growth. +Still below 20%",increase,increase,True,True,56456.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:09:28.209000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I actually don’t know but if consumers stock up on buying in this quarter, so the second quarter has positive growth. Wo",flip,decrease,False,True,5.199,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",hold,decrease,False,True,168899.8091,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T14:52:36.477000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Aren't the American goods getting double taxed in practice? Once by America and once by Israel? (I am probably wrong, no",decrease,hold,False,True,2654.4823,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T17:30:46.522000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Not sure what this means for the ""US weighted average tariff""",decrease,decrease,True,True,6993.2982,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T21:05:59.149000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"We're gonna have a Big Beautiful Recession, the likes of which you've never seen before",decrease,decrease,True,True,2768.001,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-05T07:30:46.004000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,to be fair a lot of the uptick in unemployment data we see now from historic recessions are a result of revisions much l,hold,decrease,False,True,19878.762,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:46:09.474000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Just Mexico. Canada is still in place for now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3226.0251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T08:09:50.457000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I expect those to be rather short-lived,decrease,decrease,True,True,15189.3281,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T22:07:53.650000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wonder if they will stay bullish on the economy after seeing their long time colleagues get laid off.,increase,decrease,False,True,320.3533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T00:15:39+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,had this all prepared and everything,hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",decrease,decrease,True,True,5999.3386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T19:15:17.130000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,You're better than that comment,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-25T22:20:26.479000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-macron-canada-mexicoreciprocal-49caafc1240db7e17cfb45e71520dc98 +It seems like ",increase,increase,True,True,1354.8767,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:08:17.306000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I mean, theoretically importers stocking up on goods shouldn't lead to negative GDP even if they're warehoused because c",decrease,increase,False,True,994.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:52:09.127000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's surprising to me how much higher this is than real-money markets. (Kalshi currently at 75%) +https://kalshi.com/mar",increase,decrease,False,True,19966.2654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T05:08:38.801000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""Thank you for playing."" - Kevin Burke",increase,decrease,False,True,142068.5666,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T21:26:59.774000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,isn't it more about Q3/Q4? Genuine question,hold,decrease,False,True,850.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,decrease,False,True,277.8942,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%. +https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",decrease,hold,False,True,912.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:05:03.439000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The Colombia tariffs aren’t nearly sufficient to make the market resolve, but they’re indicative that Trump really is wi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T20:57:52.032000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,the fool who doesn’t believe him?,decrease,increase,False,True,813.3469,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-18T15:08:25.466000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Kalshi currently has 2% odds for negative q3 gdp growth,decrease,hold,False,True,1586.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,decrease,False,True,1350.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-14T08:21:13.050000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"If Q3 GDP is positive, this market will resolve no. +Q3 ends 9/30/25 +Kalshi currently predicts growth of 1.8% +And pred",increase,hold,False,True,257.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:28:49.363000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Yes - this one is the ""two quarters of negative growth"" recession definition, that one is the ""NBER declares it"" recessi",hold,hold,True,True,8000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T01:54:05.341000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I believe Michigan, since they're the state with the most trade with Canada and the second most with Mexico, doubly so w",flip,increase,False,True,3648.0836,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-28T10:29:40.837000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"BTW Metaculus is at 39%. Maybe an arbitrage opportunity?-) +https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11600/next-us-economic-r",hold,decrease,False,True,684.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-30T22:49:07.722000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If Mexico and Canada don't manage to negotiate themselves out of a 25% universal tariff, this probably goes to >90% give",decrease,flip,False,True,17436.5969,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T03:37:51.701000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Yo, can you resolve some of your questions?",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-23T16:04:32.270000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/23/us/politics/trump-tariff-exemptions.html +Tariffs are great because they create the o",hold,increase,False,True,104275.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T22:08:13.181000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,It was pretty obvious with the rapid interest rate hikes and the inverted yield curve.,increase,hold,False,True,17997.1352,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T18:41:41.082000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yield curve inversion is just expectations of rate cuts. Normally that happens during recessions but it can also happen ,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-10T23:00:08.469000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q4 2024 (3rd) +2.4% +Q3 2024 +3.1% +Revisions possible after 3rd est, sure. By 3%ish? That would be outrageously large. ",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T01:26:52.356000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Having trouble reconciling this and other markets that have “recession 2024” at under 10%,hold,decrease,False,True,7723.5054,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:46:33.635000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I have two markets on recession in 2024 on the negative GDP and the NBER criteria, and they have strikingly different pr",increase,decrease,False,True,1999.0244,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T23:09:26.035000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Q1 real growth was negative, so this can resolve yes only if either +q2 is negative or +q2 is positive but q3 and q4 are",decrease,hold,False,True,1083.7446,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",flip,decrease,False,True,1315.2604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-13T00:44:01.561000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"hard to know what the effective tariff will be after all the pauses, exemptions, de minimus, trade adjustments, and fail",flip,decrease,False,True,21717.8019,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-09-08T20:54:07.779000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Has the Recession Started? + by +Emmanuel Saez + and Pascal Michaillat. +""With August 2024 data, our indicator is at 0.",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-09T22:39:11.052000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Still unclear how any company could make investments under these completely chaotic conditions,hold,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-03T23:33:21.032000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"This is the fake news brother! Please do not fall for the misinformation campaigning, it is making the brain mushy.",decrease,increase,False,True,111.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-03T01:09:48.451000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Arb this. This market should be a bit lower than this other one due to probability of US entering recession Q4 2025: +",hold,decrease,False,True,1854.4375,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T15:41:44.422000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Not yet negative but strong downwards trend in the limited q4 data so far,increase,decrease,False,True,3092.7622,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-10T11:07:17.279000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"always looks like no recession until there is one - financial market stress from BoJ, higher rates, commercial real esta",increase,increase,True,True,3979.7622,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",decrease,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T23:30:35.260000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"probably not, they've been betting on it for many months.",increase,hold,False,True,2923.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,decrease,decrease,True,True,700.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-10T10:24:02.911000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Firstly, most indicators do not have 100 % accuracy on historical data. Secondly, even if they did, pointing to a si",increase,decrease,False,True,2063.6765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T18:02:49.730000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To the people who don't even know about yield curve recession theory, let alone the counterarguments: why are you even h",decrease,hold,False,True,2339.0148,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:19:49.693000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"well if the second is spuriously high then the third by comparison will more likely be negative, just due to the higher ",hold,hold,True,True,168899.8091,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:21:49.453000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yeah it would be a recession but 2024 GDP growth would still be at least 1.5%,hold,decrease,False,True,12400.1352,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",decrease,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T11:29:11.622000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This isn't a large risk for +, for whom this bet is 5% of net worth. By comparison, I see you've bet about 5× your net ",increase,decrease,False,True,2923.5098,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T15:42:24.077000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Voting with $: +https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/steve-madden-announces-plan-rapidly-move-production-out-china-followin",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:44:34.842000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"right, but if you try and interfere with other sovereign nations internal taxation systems they will justifiably retalia",hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T17:05:51.919000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,you literally only linked that because you're the creator of that market and you're shilling it. Obviously if Trump DOE,hold,hold,True,True,5769.0754,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,hold,False,True,811.535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:02:40.159000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For those who believe the Sahm rule indicates the US is already in recession, here is a market for you:",increase,hold,False,True,57255.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:43:24.231000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The +Sahm Rule + paper, released in 2019, is based on monthly unemployment data that was not available prior to 1970. 1",flip,decrease,False,True,599.899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T18:29:23.101000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"This gives weighted average above the threshold, at least according to the weights that ChatGPT gave me...",decrease,decrease,True,True,15299.5535,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T21:25:09.202000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,fluctuations are not unidirectional,increase,hold,False,True,20.0719,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:12:14.789000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I also doubt that Q2 will be negative because they tried driving consumers to panic buy unless it’s like slightly more t,flip,hold,False,True,5.199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T23:41:56.670000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To allow for more timely payouts of bets over this, I've created a derivative market that resolves at the end of this ye",increase,hold,False,True,62255.5098,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2025-04-11T00:33:16.217000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Given loans exist again I think it makes sense to bet it down more. Otherwise just wasn't worth it.,hold,increase,False,True,220393.0665,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",hold,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T19:43:17.257000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm feeling like there isn't going to be a recession!,increase,increase,True,True,97583.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:40:34+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"It would be nice to find the whole dataset. They have Secondary Market Rate since 1954 +https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ser",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T06:56:48.898000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"yeah I agree with all of this +Add in the lagged monetary impacts from people terming out their debt and the next 18 mon",hold,increase,False,True,16559.9406,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T00:28:41.407000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"An oil spike has always happened after the yield curve inverts, after everyone is 100% convinced that we are headed for ",increase,increase,True,True,10481.1985,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2519eeb820468c0c7b49630606cca49b27f0d3ea --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.4126569016781401,0.2625231876142844,-0.15013371406385573,DOWN,0.19307356558026256,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.5247283294027771,0.5329440747946549,0.008215745391877749,UP,0.796023826857795,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,9,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.2625231876142844,0.17763784813505062,-0.08488533947923377,DOWN,0.24092846046717492,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.6228550837705561,0.6992628846681328,0.0764078008975767,UP,0.19023305836362295,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,32,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.6380325996923685,0.615528874237532,-0.022503725454836476,DOWN,0.8981660099761446,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.615528874237532,0.24473991531715716,-0.37078895892037483,DOWN,0.992620476129292,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,9,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.1317917980433526,0.02989484040887999,-0.1018969576344726,DOWN,0.9189606182372511,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,28,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.17763784813505062,0.16396364967103116,-0.01367419846401946,DOWN,0.7015277077472246,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.5329440747946549,0.5223657028056261,-0.010578371989028779,DOWN,0.7971737682533704,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,9,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.9203558637601172,0.8982024313042307,-0.022153432455886524,DOWN,0.127073021711849,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,32,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.3525030321216114,0.2524954849652854,-0.10000754715632598,DOWN,0.41110591841639965,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.8215577283211744,0.9203558637601172,0.09879813543894289,UP,0.9395265784029344,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,32,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..78127ba0edd7b02a30e9eb9aafd03aecb0da581b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.4799999999999997,0.4395083592338325,-0.04049164076616718,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.869127253092976,0.9498261831837438,0.08069893009076778,UP,0.8139393051834142,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,10,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.6300556165270731,0.2623002556229529,-0.3677553609041202,DOWN,0.9435679551343875,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,21,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.1599130941463272,0.1813826650000039,0.021469570853676706,UP,0.492629601354432,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,27,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.5261603032826997,0.4560711840421291,-0.0700891192405706,DOWN,0.8556079734883872,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,25,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.29761680448870015,0.25598152018193504,-0.04163528430676511,DOWN,0.5740342099565414,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,19,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.15808261454990713,0.06410498917222335,-0.09397762537768378,DOWN,0.6378957107102753,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.5676993211619148,0.6282224896245622,0.06052316846264738,UP,0.6365674055252126,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,16,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.40167289615339613,0.428265891380257,0.02659299522686087,UP,0.8683689227583323,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.5103963801586475,0.5346257488330876,0.024229368674440033,UP,0.7903737869193082,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,18,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.6502632740393213,0.5587692071665887,-0.09149406687273254,DOWN,0.1488408934329715,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,46,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.0509100960352612,0.014227057899459513,-0.036683038135801684,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,3,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..791dc5cebf0decddb0947e0721f5f719e07f0442 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,78 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:36:44.095000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Basically, there were NO COMMENTS THAT CHANGED THE CRITERIA. Comments only clarified what ""more reviews are still coming",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T07:24:41.855000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,i sold MY YES PREDICTION three days ago- i hate this gnome is he not thinking about me???,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T11:29:42.591000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"$307 on No at this point, praying for a successful mrgirl hitpiece on him dropping and Destiny losing subscribers at thi",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:07:55.783000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,everyone shared the same assumption about the resolution criteria != everyone knew what the criteria was.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:51:51.711000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Small Ṁ150 investment at very high % can go a long way WORTH,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:55:39.538000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"We should be very clear that this is merely a +clarification + of the resolution criteria, not a contradiction. In no w",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-08T23:43:33.733000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Will Destiny and Melina get divorced before 2024? +, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of th",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T01:58:51.244000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Because of a new line of attack in the comments, I am making a +poll + on whether cyclohexane formation count as one ch",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-11T07:09:02.306000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i have no idea what this is about i'm just market making that volatility lmao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:31:38.554000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Its truly the most fun part of all of this,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T09:30:07.992000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Resolve conditions need to be clarified. My understanding is that if he brings the manifesto up on stream, reads a few p",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T03:03:10.175000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"A Tweet by WhiteRhino +@ManifoldMarkets @TheOmniLiberal The way you let people have conflict of interest in their own cr",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-01T19:05:05.247000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,can someone explain why this hasn't been resolved? i'm supa curious,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T19:16:06.812000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Destiny has already said a few times that he might play in the background sometimes, but it will take a significant back",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:08:15.600000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Why would I act upon a contradictory explanation of the market? Also even if I did believe he was going to resolve it th,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-30T07:16:03.990000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"There was another market, same title, with the description, “resolves NO if destiny ignores the article completely” +I ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T23:38:16.539000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,yet you wager only $50. Curious.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T03:02:23.186000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,i bought 2.5k at 20% i hope it works out,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T15:41:19.552000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Inspired by the legs vs eyes market I see haha,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T18:47:55.797000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I sold like a third of my shit to invest in here,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T05:57:47.396000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,new leader in yes shares... fight me,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T06:03:01.353000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Yeah, I don't think that counts either since it's +not tabulated.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T11:25:03.714000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Only by about a m$1000. The problem is that destiny/lav drama hit livestreamfails, and hasan mentioned him by name. The ",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:02:28.407000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"85% alive by 2024, and 93% alive by 2030, that implies an 8% chance of resurrection in between. Blesstiny",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:23:09.472000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow, a lot happened here since I sold my stake. Shouldn't this be resolved? +Edit: I didn't mean to attack the +. I was",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T23:40:20.643000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I bought in at 70% its going up right guys SWEATSTINY,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T16:04:29.084000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,how's that guy who bought 11k in yes shares doing? 😂,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:01:17.253000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I'll do some research on this.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-08T23:37:00.455000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I don't think you are taking into account that it was the first video on the homepage of rumble.com. I'm just guessing ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-14T12:05:09.350000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,[obligatory comment about how I'm commenting as a user and won't exert any pressure or complain if this resolves against,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:15:20.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","conversely it could be a cleverly designed ploy used by quinesweeper, who is really just the alt of one of the big YES t",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:34:03.237000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason why he shouldn't resolve as N/A the description was unclear enough to have over 200 people to think t,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:34:42.012000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","right, but is that it? is there like a, ""oh, this might happen"" quote from somebody?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-14T08:38:17.107000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,The thing is all it will take is 1 high sub day to get there in time. I am betting big on him not making it (M$383 on no,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:24.652000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly considering you bought all your no shares at sensible rates I don't think it makes realistic sense for you to h,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:21:02.465000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","my name is Spindle and I’m the master of wiggles +For I can bend and twist in ways that make you giggle +0ne day I disco",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:22:53.770000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Lol, once I saw those returns I went all in WORTH",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:10:14.460000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,All these tensors are not tabulated however,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:18.355000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I think might be looking at the button which lets you see the market’s history. I don’t think it’s in any groups, but th",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T17:23:20.659000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","This is a very weird market. +The odds were set much higher than most people thought thought they should be because the ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T23:00:42.327000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Twitch Fwitch Enterprises is in too deep, so we recommend all DGGERS join us, in a few days August will get Destiny to s",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:35:36.068000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,agreed. thats why i bought 13k shares LOL.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T13:53:34.024000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"I get the John 9:25 reference meme and love it, thank you!",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:27:37.757000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He's going to london from the 6th to the 10th. It would make no sense to resolve YES just because he is away from his PC,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:22:22.119000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"even though i sold all my NO position with a loss, I think that description was pretty clear: ""stops playing Factorio"" a",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:35:31.277000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,If I am being honest I would have resolved yesterday after he beat and closed the game but I went off my computer and wa,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-30T16:13:18.384000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Yawn, lemme put on my tin foil hat then... I think that there was significant delay that benefitted no positions through",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:23:22.362000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hinton and Bengio are Turing Award winners. + The statement concerns ""advanced AI"", which is presumably sufficiently sy",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:31:28.599000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"The description only has 1 condition, and the title is nonspecific enough that I don't think someone buying without read",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T15:13:32.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Why did you just push back the close time 1 day? You didn’t put what counts as may 31 in the description so I went by th,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-11T15:59:07.666000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,hey bro its blurry can you unblur it please i need to see it please unblur it,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-14T18:13:30.472000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Do chairs/tables count if they existed at some point in the past, but have since been destroyed?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:41:27.154000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"https://manifold.markets/link/e7klnvGT + To show that the reason I'm arguing for this is not my personal profit, I have ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T09:43:23.122000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"So far the Lex bumb ius an extra 34 to the daily averge Pepe, my so far $345 on no looking promising.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:09:08.914000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow I missed out eh? I sold at 350 just to get my mana for more moves. I had no idea this was still going. +Will this m",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T11:27:03.816000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Found a source from a chemist's book. I'll hold a poll on this.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:36:29.395000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"i went out to work out, saw it had dropped below the odds that align with basic probability +and im right back in",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T07:31:33.766000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Sorry to mention, but everything is one in this poll. Whether the chair formation is one chair or many chairs is the que",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..db21682a9811241adffca95afe6b97b2cb749ab0 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,78 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T07:24:41.855000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,i sold MY YES PREDICTION three days ago- i hate this gnome is he not thinking about me???,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:55:39.538000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"We should be very clear that this is merely a +clarification + of the resolution criteria, not a contradiction. In no w",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T11:29:42.591000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"$307 on No at this point, praying for a successful mrgirl hitpiece on him dropping and Destiny losing subscribers at thi",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T01:58:51.244000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Because of a new line of attack in the comments, I am making a +poll + on whether cyclohexane formation count as one ch",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:51:51.711000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Small Ṁ150 investment at very high % can go a long way WORTH,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:36:44.095000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Basically, there were NO COMMENTS THAT CHANGED THE CRITERIA. Comments only clarified what ""more reviews are still coming",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:07:55.783000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,everyone shared the same assumption about the resolution criteria != everyone knew what the criteria was.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T03:03:10.175000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"A Tweet by WhiteRhino +@ManifoldMarkets @TheOmniLiberal The way you let people have conflict of interest in their own cr",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:31:38.554000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Its truly the most fun part of all of this,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-11T07:09:02.306000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i have no idea what this is about i'm just market making that volatility lmao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:08:15.600000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Why would I act upon a contradictory explanation of the market? Also even if I did believe he was going to resolve it th,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T09:30:07.992000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Resolve conditions need to be clarified. My understanding is that if he brings the manifesto up on stream, reads a few p",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-01T19:05:05.247000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,can someone explain why this hasn't been resolved? i'm supa curious,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T23:38:16.539000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,yet you wager only $50. Curious.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-30T07:16:03.990000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"There was another market, same title, with the description, “resolves NO if destiny ignores the article completely” +I ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T03:02:23.186000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,i bought 2.5k at 20% i hope it works out,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T19:16:06.812000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Destiny has already said a few times that he might play in the background sometimes, but it will take a significant back",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:02:28.407000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"85% alive by 2024, and 93% alive by 2030, that implies an 8% chance of resurrection in between. Blesstiny",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-08T23:43:33.733000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Will Destiny and Melina get divorced before 2024? +, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of th",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T11:25:03.714000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Only by about a m$1000. The problem is that destiny/lav drama hit livestreamfails, and hasan mentioned him by name. The ",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T18:47:55.797000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I sold like a third of my shit to invest in here,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T15:41:19.552000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Inspired by the legs vs eyes market I see haha,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T06:03:01.353000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Yeah, I don't think that counts either since it's +not tabulated.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T05:57:47.396000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,new leader in yes shares... fight me,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T16:04:29.084000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,how's that guy who bought 11k in yes shares doing? 😂,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T23:40:20.643000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I bought in at 70% its going up right guys SWEATSTINY,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:23:09.472000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow, a lot happened here since I sold my stake. Shouldn't this be resolved? +Edit: I didn't mean to attack the +. I was",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:34:03.237000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason why he shouldn't resolve as N/A the description was unclear enough to have over 200 people to think t,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:15:20.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","conversely it could be a cleverly designed ploy used by quinesweeper, who is really just the alt of one of the big YES t",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:01:17.253000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I'll do some research on this.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:34:42.012000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","right, but is that it? is there like a, ""oh, this might happen"" quote from somebody?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:24.652000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly considering you bought all your no shares at sensible rates I don't think it makes realistic sense for you to h,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-14T12:05:09.350000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,[obligatory comment about how I'm commenting as a user and won't exert any pressure or complain if this resolves against,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:18.355000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I think might be looking at the button which lets you see the market’s history. I don’t think it’s in any groups, but th",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-08T23:37:00.455000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I don't think you are taking into account that it was the first video on the homepage of rumble.com. I'm just guessing ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-14T08:38:17.107000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,The thing is all it will take is 1 high sub day to get there in time. I am betting big on him not making it (M$383 on no,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:21:02.465000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","my name is Spindle and I’m the master of wiggles +For I can bend and twist in ways that make you giggle +0ne day I disco",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:10:14.460000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,All these tensors are not tabulated however,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T23:00:42.327000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Twitch Fwitch Enterprises is in too deep, so we recommend all DGGERS join us, in a few days August will get Destiny to s",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:22:53.770000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Lol, once I saw those returns I went all in WORTH",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:35:36.068000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,agreed. thats why i bought 13k shares LOL.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T17:23:20.659000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","This is a very weird market. +The odds were set much higher than most people thought thought they should be because the ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-11T15:59:07.666000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,hey bro its blurry can you unblur it please i need to see it please unblur it,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:31:28.599000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"The description only has 1 condition, and the title is nonspecific enough that I don't think someone buying without read",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:35:31.277000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,If I am being honest I would have resolved yesterday after he beat and closed the game but I went off my computer and wa,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:23:22.362000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hinton and Bengio are Turing Award winners. + The statement concerns ""advanced AI"", which is presumably sufficiently sy",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:27:37.757000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He's going to london from the 6th to the 10th. It would make no sense to resolve YES just because he is away from his PC,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:22:22.119000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"even though i sold all my NO position with a loss, I think that description was pretty clear: ""stops playing Factorio"" a",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T15:13:32.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Why did you just push back the close time 1 day? You didn’t put what counts as may 31 in the description so I went by th,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-14T18:13:30.472000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Do chairs/tables count if they existed at some point in the past, but have since been destroyed?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-30T16:13:18.384000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Yawn, lemme put on my tin foil hat then... I think that there was significant delay that benefitted no positions through",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T11:27:03.816000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Found a source from a chemist's book. I'll hold a poll on this.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:36:29.395000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"i went out to work out, saw it had dropped below the odds that align with basic probability +and im right back in",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T09:43:23.122000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"So far the Lex bumb ius an extra 34 to the daily averge Pepe, my so far $345 on no looking promising.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:09:08.914000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow I missed out eh? I sold at 350 just to get my mana for more moves. I had no idea this was still going. +Will this m",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T07:31:33.766000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Sorry to mention, but everything is one in this poll. Whether the chair formation is one chair or many chairs is the que",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:41:27.154000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"https://manifold.markets/link/e7klnvGT + To show that the reason I'm arguing for this is not my personal profit, I have ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T13:53:34.024000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"I get the John 9:25 reference meme and love it, thank you!",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0a9c27ad3cc8f8ec88865c3523a4de5341250c02 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,132 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:18.355000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I think might be looking at the button which lets you see the market’s history. I don’t think it’s in any groups, but th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T09:30:07.992000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Resolve conditions need to be clarified. My understanding is that if he brings the manifesto up on stream, reads a few p",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T20:33:02.230000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I’m not sure. Chair conformation is a property of the molecule, but nobody calls it a “chair”. It’s descriptive, not nom",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-14T16:33:57.335000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"So happy I bought when I did. Basically bought at the peak. Destiny's going on +vacation soon too I think so, I'm getti",NO,YES,False,True,659.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T17:37:30.865000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","The title is contradictory with the description, and normally the description supersedes the title. The description does",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T16:45:04.384000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","It boils down to the “10 public figureheads” definition, subjective. There is also a market about whether this market wi",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:34:42.012000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","right, but is that it? is there like a, ""oh, this might happen"" quote from somebody?",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:07:55.783000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,everyone shared the same assumption about the resolution criteria != everyone knew what the criteria was.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T05:57:47.396000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,new leader in yes shares... fight me,YES,YES,True,True,8000.9852,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:35:36.068000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,agreed. thats why i bought 13k shares LOL.,YES,YES,True,True,7894.8853,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:55:39.538000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"We should be very clear that this is merely a +clarification + of the resolution criteria, not a contradiction. In no w",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,12631.2736,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-12T08:06:45.375000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i didn't even know there was a manifesto. lol,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T07:31:33.766000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Sorry to mention, but everything is one in this poll. Whether the chair formation is one chair or many chairs is the que",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:00:21.970000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Holy shit so many of you are fucking mad that I have no shares, would it make you happy if I sold my shares and put all ",NO,YES,False,True,9823.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:27:37.757000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He's going to london from the 6th to the 10th. It would make no sense to resolve YES just because he is away from his PC,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:08:15.600000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Why would I act upon a contradictory explanation of the market? Also even if I did believe he was going to resolve it th,YES,NO,False,True,21.201,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T11:29:42.591000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"$307 on No at this point, praying for a successful mrgirl hitpiece on him dropping and Destiny losing subscribers at thi",NO,NO,True,True,307.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-16T06:59:12.841000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,Unless I’m imagining things I went to bed last night and it was at 300k and is now sitting at 311k in under 24 hours. I ,YES,NO,False,True,290.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:50:24.872000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"this market, its too powerful for these poor servers",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:31:29.628000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"It's a response to +The creator meant that the conditions remain as he explained in a comment several days ago: the mark",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:02:28.407000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"85% alive by 2024, and 93% alive by 2030, that implies an 8% chance of resurrection in between. Blesstiny",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T23:37:53.704000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,thank god i sold my no's at 30,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-14T18:13:30.472000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Do chairs/tables count if they existed at some point in the past, but have since been destroyed?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T16:04:29.084000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,how's that guy who bought 11k in yes shares doing? 😂,NO,NO,True,True,1540.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:01:17.253000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I'll do some research on this.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-14T12:05:09.350000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,[obligatory comment about how I'm commenting as a user and won't exert any pressure or complain if this resolves against,NO,NO,True,True,15800.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:36:29.395000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"i went out to work out, saw it had dropped below the odds that align with basic probability +and im right back in",YES,YES,True,True,1360.0439,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T14:18:05.258000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Yes. But does it not also imply the more common definition of well-recognized, that people actually have to know about i",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T03:02:23.186000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,i bought 2.5k at 20% i hope it works out,YES,YES,True,True,3050.2686,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:23:09.472000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow, a lot happened here since I sold my stake. Shouldn't this be resolved? +Edit: I didn't mean to attack the +. I was",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T13:06:21.985000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Are every single one of these tags stored as individual table tags,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T19:16:06.812000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Destiny has already said a few times that he might play in the background sometimes, but it will take a significant back",NO,NO,True,True,40.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:35:31.277000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,If I am being honest I would have resolved yesterday after he beat and closed the game but I went off my computer and wa,NO,NO,True,True,9823.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T02:51:49.536000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,We followed too closely near 350 completely forgot the description.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:34:03.237000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason why he shouldn't resolve as N/A the description was unclear enough to have over 200 people to think t,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2037.0459,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:36:44.095000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Basically, there were NO COMMENTS THAT CHANGED THE CRITERIA. Comments only clarified what ""more reviews are still coming",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T07:05:08.264000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Could you clarify it this closes tomorrow if today there are less than 15 reviews or on Aug 18?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:15:20.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","conversely it could be a cleverly designed ploy used by quinesweeper, who is really just the alt of one of the big YES t",NO,NO,True,True,16203.6905,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T18:47:55.797000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I sold like a third of my shit to invest in here,NO,YES,False,True,1081.8131,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T06:23:59.081000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"This +poll +. It's a new one I made because of another argument that convinced me to restart this poll. This is THE FIN",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,NO,YES,False,True,1834.1153,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:30:45.590000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,glad i bought some no at 99.7% to hedge 😂,YES,NO,False,True,5653.3852,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-11T07:09:02.306000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i have no idea what this is about i'm just market making that volatility lmao,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:05:06.931000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"“… this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing it” +I agree with others that + could've provide",NO,NO,True,True,1244.7117,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-14T08:38:17.107000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,The thing is all it will take is 1 high sub day to get there in time. I am betting big on him not making it (M$383 on no,NO,NO,True,True,383.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T19:55:21.937000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Whew buddy... +There's NO way Destiny can outperform a bot prediction by literally SIX DAYS... +bruh...",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:22:22.119000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"even though i sold all my NO position with a loss, I think that description was pretty clear: ""stops playing Factorio"" a",NO,NO,True,True,904.1437,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:10:14.460000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,All these tensors are not tabulated however,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T07:24:41.855000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,i sold MY YES PREDICTION three days ago- i hate this gnome is he not thinking about me???,YES,YES,True,True,189.7119,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,NO,NO,True,True,7470.8145,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T23:40:20.643000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I bought in at 70% its going up right guys SWEATSTINY,YES,YES,True,True,400.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T23:38:16.539000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,yet you wager only $50. Curious.,NO,NO,True,True,50.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T06:30:26.097000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Have we considered lookup tables in FPGAs? +https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/169532/what-is-an-lut-in-fp",NO,YES,False,True,10.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-30T16:13:18.384000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Yawn, lemme put on my tin foil hat then... I think that there was significant delay that benefitted no positions through",YES,NO,False,True,1240.5401,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T12:51:14.324000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Lol looks like the letter got delayed and the whales were getting you in so they could sell,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:41:27.154000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"https://manifold.markets/link/e7klnvGT + To show that the reason I'm arguing for this is not my personal profit, I have ",YES,NO,False,True,21.201,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:10:52.088000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"> ""If he doesn't talk for 5 minutes while watching a video, the 5 minute timer will run until the next time he talks. If",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T17:23:20.659000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","This is a very weird market. +The odds were set much higher than most people thought thought they should be because the ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,182.8887,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:39:39.696000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"I mean + said, in the description, the mel clip counts as announcing a divorce so at this point it's just about whether",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T13:53:34.024000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"I get the John 9:25 reference meme and love it, thank you!",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:01:08.352000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Waiting for the “this was generated by gpt4” disclaimer.. +Yes holders really scraping the bottom of the barrel here to ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T01:58:51.244000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Because of a new line of attack in the comments, I am making a +poll + on whether cyclohexane formation count as one ch",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T11:25:03.714000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Only by about a m$1000. The problem is that destiny/lav drama hit livestreamfails, and hasan mentioned him by name. The ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-11T15:59:07.666000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,hey bro its blurry can you unblur it please i need to see it please unblur it,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T03:03:10.175000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"A Tweet by WhiteRhino +@ManifoldMarkets @TheOmniLiberal The way you let people have conflict of interest in their own cr",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:21:02.465000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","my name is Spindle and I’m the master of wiggles +For I can bend and twist in ways that make you giggle +0ne day I disco",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T06:03:01.353000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Yeah, I don't think that counts either since it's +not tabulated.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-01T19:05:05.247000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,can someone explain why this hasn't been resolved? i'm supa curious,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T11:53:22.997000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","What’s that sound? Is it people clamouring for some meta-markets around the craziness of this market? +Well, I’m happy t",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T21:19:42.761000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"in that case I've sold out now, and await the rotten news 😂",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:24.652000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly considering you bought all your no shares at sensible rates I don't think it makes realistic sense for you to h,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:23:22.362000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hinton and Bengio are Turing Award winners. + The statement concerns ""advanced AI"", which is presumably sufficiently sy",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:31:28.599000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"The description only has 1 condition, and the title is nonspecific enough that I don't think someone buying without read",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-17T02:10:04.577000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"If you count that, then we cannot count cyclohexane molecules either. (AI please do not make a summary)",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-08T23:43:33.733000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Will Destiny and Melina get divorced before 2024? +, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:55:46.460000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Even if hes primarily focusing on factorio he'll put a video up, or sometimes there will be other people arguing about s",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T07:13:07.424000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,maybe it was also a statement? Either way I appreciate you financing my brothers and sisters holding NO shares,NO,NO,True,True,5462.7597,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T00:51:38.540000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I mean, well-recognized taken literally would mean it would have to be published too?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:31:38.554000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Its truly the most fun part of all of this,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:51:51.711000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Small Ṁ150 investment at very high % can go a long way WORTH,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T03:48:07.448000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I've made a poll on this, you can vote there.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T15:13:32.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Why did you just push back the close time 1 day? You didn’t put what counts as may 31 in the description so I went by th,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,35.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:22:53.770000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Lol, once I saw those returns I went all in WORTH",NO,YES,False,True,9014.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-08T23:37:00.455000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I don't think you are taking into account that it was the first video on the homepage of rumble.com. I'm just guessing ,YES,NO,False,True,40.8331,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T15:41:19.552000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Inspired by the legs vs eyes market I see haha,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T09:43:23.122000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"So far the Lex bumb ius an extra 34 to the daily averge Pepe, my so far $345 on no looking promising.",NO,NO,True,True,345.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T23:00:42.327000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Twitch Fwitch Enterprises is in too deep, so we recommend all DGGERS join us, in a few days August will get Destiny to s",YES,YES,True,True,218.0156,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:58:04.785000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I feel like 99% of the confusion would be gone if I added the word playing after finish,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,7470.8145,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:06:37.959000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Physical effects cannot occur for scales below the planck length, and as such it wouldn't be correct to say it's infinit",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T19:56:47.287000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Per Claude, run length encoding (RLE) which is part of modern zip file formats, stores repetitive text in O(log(n)) spac",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:46:51.481000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Yeah you can’t go by market percent to estimate people’s expectations when speculation is rampant,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-08T09:11:08.730000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"it's 150 pages + recent events will be another 50 i'm guessing. +gnomey aint readin' all that. +He scrolls through it on",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T11:36:25.136000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Let's see what Team Tables has in store for us. Please bring out your arguments! Chairs is currently in the lead. If no ,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T09:46:35.720000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Its all about the trends guys. There will be no second peak, subscriber growth will continue to fall. +https://imgur.co",NO,NO,True,True,345.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:09:08.914000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow I missed out eh? I sold at 350 just to get my mana for more moves. I had no idea this was still going. +Will this m",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T01:11:04.777000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This market ends when I get unbanned FeelsStrongMan,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-30T07:16:03.990000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"There was another market, same title, with the description, “resolves NO if destiny ignores the article completely” +I ",NO,YES,False,True,12371.9137,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-28T00:26:21.203000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"If you check the betting markets, they put him going for the ""True"" ending at 20-30%, but I think he won't do it. It wou",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T11:27:03.816000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Found a source from a chemist's book. I'll hold a poll on this.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a2653edfc20eb3f17bb2fb43da6726f3bb23f7bd --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,126 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T08:51:25.089000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""This market will resolve YES only if Destiny makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of the",hold,increase,False,True,210.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:41:01.081000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,what's with you people and Autism? autism isn't bad 😤,decrease,hold,False,True,5311.3361,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T18:49:04.006000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Actually, that means that most non-digital tables consist primarily of chairs.",decrease,decrease,True,True,110.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:18:56.672000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I see it as we hit the goal here is proof and now we wait for 350 reviews or 30 days which ever comes first.,increase,hold,False,True,350.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T23:24:05.892000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"""chair conformation"" is a term that talks about how the cyclohexane molecules are arranged. A ""positive integer"" is a te",increase,hold,False,True,103.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T13:22:41.408000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"lmao, I will it make sure to remember to laugh at u when it won't happen",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:20:15.115000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Yes, Hinton and Bengio from 2018: +https://amturing.acm.org/byyear.cfm",flip,flip,True,True,4326.877,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T07:03:07.113000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I’ve resisted my gambling instinct for too long. The cope is strong,hold,flip,False,True,827.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T21:27:17.563000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"were is the +thought we had talked about this?",flip,hold,False,True,975.9749,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:09:23.006000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Who will lead that charge? People are too afraid,flip,increase,False,True,4414.5098,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:30:59.062000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He said that he was going to do the secret ending multiple times you actually think didn't knew about it and still kept ,flip,decrease,False,True,2037.0459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T11:12:50.616000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Does this parse as: +Resolves YES if there is (a similar letter as the Pause Letter) released by the Future of Life Inst",increase,hold,False,True,1090.2391,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T00:16:40.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Genius. Careful observers will note that I, a signatory, am now an AI-generated figurehead:",decrease,hold,False,True,6564.8623,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-12T12:42:15.084000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,All they're saying is that for this to resolve YES someone has to show evidence that the divorce has finalized. It's not,increase,hold,False,True,7134.7611,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T19:14:57.324000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Bro you are fucked. Lex podcast and just need 20k more and its only the 11th! on top of that Thanksgiving will bring ton,hold,increase,False,True,260.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T17:04:13.676000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",": + still holds 2k NO shares, and has only ~200 mana in their cash balance, that seems like it satisfies ""put your mone",flip,hold,False,True,1365.4527,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-06T14:46:06.959000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Its okay to not understand how things work.,hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T21:06:47.056000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,he owns the aba stock so it makes sense that he has so much capital i guess,hold,hold,True,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:52:12.197000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,ikr it's recording all the trades,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T22:19:24.153000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Even if he gains 1k sub per day (highly unlikely), he will not hit the 600k sub mark. You would have to be insane to not",increase,increase,True,True,401.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:29:53.958000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Destiny is a very unique streamer. It just so happens that there is heavy overlap between the types of people that enjoy,decrease,hold,False,True,850.6887,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T17:31:05.817000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"If you ignore the rest of the description and only hone in on this one sentence, then sure this would be a Yes resolve. ",hold,increase,False,True,10852.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-23T14:36:29.995000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Agreed. The most coverage I could see it getting besides what you already said is some of the more humorous extrapolatio,increase,increase,True,True,33.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T00:25:45.810000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""He is even Watching Mr. Girl talk about it now live, which is yet another criteria for another yes"". Point to me where ",increase,flip,False,True,9852.5036,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:02:30.053000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" ""this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing i",decrease,hold,False,True,400.4119,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T15:47:59.750000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"do you know how he did this? I thought about it and to someone like me, a person not versed in this stuff, it looks like",flip,decrease,False,True,31.2954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T01:06:47.714000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,193/213 reviews from now on need to be positive to resolve YES,increase,decrease,False,True,95.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T02:28:07.886000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",what exactly does this subjective opinion contribute to the market?,hold,hold,True,True,3814.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T13:06:59.773000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"yeah it's what confuses me, +why would you",flip,decrease,False,True,348.5825,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:21:50.151000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"and for any of you thinking he did not finish factorio, I'd bet all of my money that you lot of have played video games ",decrease,increase,False,True,9879.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:29:34.461000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Also thanks for clarifying the resolution criteria,flip,hold,False,True,2318.3211,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T22:47:20.703000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The description said ""Anything called a chair or table (e.g., multiplication tables, positions of authority) counts, but",increase,increase,True,True,103.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-05T19:40:11.490000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I love to see delusional people,hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:19:13.624000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Ok so if you knew he was never going to stop playing, you should have bought NO when it was at 99%. You are potentially ",increase,decrease,False,True,366.2388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:38:36.559000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Personally I think you should make a more clear determination so we can keep playing this market. Like, 3 days without f",hold,increase,False,True,443.8341,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T14:06:00.486000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","no way, he was right, there is a +letter",flip,hold,False,True,7954.6967,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:32:53.925000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,If I finish on your mom does that mean that I have stopped fucking your mom,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T11:34:48.948000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I still think the case of experts sometimes referring to individual molecules of chair conformation cyclohexane as chair,decrease,increase,False,True,155.9872,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T05:55:14.024000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,my ended market is probably worse,increase,decrease,False,True,4855.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T20:02:07.801000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"This is me right now, why is this god damn video getting this much late tracktion? Will it stop? When? Is it too late?",flip,decrease,False,True,975.9749,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:42:15.332000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,must be nice. My graph is all in the red. Hahaha. Somehow I still am making mana.,increase,decrease,False,True,128.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T18:15:18.922000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"YO, FUCK THESE NEW SITE SOUNDS. IT'S WAY TOO FUCKIN LOUD, WE NEED TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS.",increase,hold,False,True,5903.4695,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-02T22:14:33.697000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,He has been getting 1-2k a day on social blade,flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T03:23:16.482000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"If + has quit this site and isn't around to resolve this shit... All I'm gonna say.. Don't come to school tomorrow NO b",hold,decrease,False,True,6710.7015,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T07:20:02.718000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Unless there's a particularly bleak spree of negative reviews, I don't see the score deviating much for each future revi",increase,hold,False,True,917.0089,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:25:31.631000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I ate limit orders till 42%, go forth and conquer, NO bettors",flip,increase,False,True,4671.068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,decrease,False,True,8175.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T16:27:35.532000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think a table needs to have some physical manifestation, not just exist mathematically.",increase,hold,False,True,159.1713,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:49:53.761000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","A +quine + is a computer program which takes no input and produces a copy of its own source code as its only output. +i",decrease,hold,False,True,5778.8832,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:26:36.547000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"in that case he'll never ""finish it"" let's say you didn't put the in the ""next two months"" and the title is just Does De",flip,flip,True,True,3235.0774,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T17:07:25.268000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I think the resolution to this question necessarily depends on the following days. Destiny could have slept on it, and s",flip,decrease,False,True,94.1554,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:52:28.840000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Does anyone know how + got the insider information? Because the fact that only whales had insider information and no on",flip,decrease,False,True,1687.9568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:43:36.654000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Him working on it in the background means this resolves YES. Everyone understood that for all markets, and we always kne",flip,increase,False,True,727.9397,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T12:17:34.893000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"he's going for the real ending, it's not ""when he stops playing factorio (on stream)"". +the title doesn't even mention t",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-14T21:00:40.330000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Every time there is a fight on stream it is ez money.,flip,increase,False,True,302.4864,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:57:33.395000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,As long as they send it here (I won’t yoink it guys I swear),hold,hold,True,True,514.2388,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:27:51.506000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Personally I will find any ambiguity and argue it infinitely to sow doubt and manipulate markets, it’s part of the game",flip,decrease,False,True,356.1918,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:54:10.692000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"mutually agreeable? Resolve as YES, that's the only possible outcome",decrease,increase,False,True,430.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:39:34.251000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",sounds like you should buy this market down to 20% then,increase,decrease,False,True,92565.6897,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T15:53:45.271000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,the market analysis always said no. in community drama isnt going to grow the community,hold,increase,False,True,566.2037,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T19:58:39.944000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,The definition that has been applied to the argument for chair molecules is simply that experts refer to it as that - th,decrease,hold,False,True,95.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-16T01:53:53.789000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,We need more YES buyers. Where y'all at?,hold,hold,True,True,5250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T14:24:07.149000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","If we do not find out about it, this will resolve NO",decrease,hold,False,True,1146.0533,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T02:06:33.842000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Well if someone manipulates 1,000 subs for fake internet points that would be pretty sad. But I guess people have done s",increase,hold,False,True,194.337,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T02:49:53.327000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Fuck your garbage market. I am now commited to taking you down,decrease,flip,False,True,430.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-27T22:49:19.959000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,on a serious note Destiny has been vagueposting on both Twitter and on stream and I'm not jumping into conclusions but <,decrease,increase,False,True,203.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T21:59:22.319000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Leagues strongly affected how I think and feel about my profits and losses. I now have clear goals in my mind ""don't los",increase,hold,False,True,16285.2231,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:42:38.164000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Welcome to the hell that has been this market and comment section.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1284.629,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:29:35.565000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I don't want to get into an autistic debate about language my criteria in the description says ""when he stops playing it",decrease,hold,False,True,9813.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T11:27:56.709000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i filled a single buck from it 👍,hold,decrease,False,True,2150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:18:09.950000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Else reading the first sentence would be enough to satisfy it, which would kinda contradict the ""Destiny must actively r",hold,hold,True,True,165.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-20T21:53:28.051000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","it's high mostly because I'm buying YES. If you think the resolution will be a NO, I've set up a huge limit order at 50%",increase,decrease,False,True,420.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:26:26.318000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Yet nobody complained when he clarified the criteria several times in the comments.,decrease,hold,False,True,19550.8945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-24T19:54:16.789000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I think you’re basically spot on with the “pre-reading” prediction. Knowing the actual content is going to be pretty nas,increase,decrease,False,True,97.8741,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:21:26.808000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,its like you got a b*ner to leave a comment bro. hop the hell off and let the dude resolve. both sides have made their c,hold,decrease,False,True,9256.645,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T20:34:16.945000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Please just let me have this 🙏,decrease,decrease,True,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-08T06:19:04.852000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Counterargument: the news cycle is probably going to be dominated by wacky midterms shit, Lex is going to want to talk a",hold,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T20:13:33.516000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,The criteria for resolving Yes is in the description. Destiny hasn't met even the most basic one. If you want to keep be,increase,increase,True,True,9152.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T21:04:24.420000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Out of all the arguments from the YES buyers, the +time + argument is the weakest imo. +If +Chud spent +10 hours + t",hold,increase,False,True,10952.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:35:59.917000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","To be honest, I have no idea. But I somehow put enough limit orders that I ended with a much bigger NO stake that I woul",decrease,decrease,True,True,3696.4178,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:04.933000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"be sure to view my market I created against PryingMinds, I'm petitioning he be banned or removed from creating markets d",decrease,hold,False,True,430.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:19:45.917000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","this letter doesn't count since it's not about ""powerful AI"" and also it's by the wrong organization",hold,hold,True,True,6179.1468,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T18:32:56.070000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",This has nothing to do with the market,increase,hold,False,True,4117.7979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T00:16:47.905000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"and when it the reviews actually slow down to about 1 per week (that sounds fair) it enters ""pseudorandom close mode"", w",increase,hold,False,True,10.4117,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:50:46.136000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I like to wiggle but I am poor. If you appreciate my wiggling, please share a mana:link +here",flip,hold,False,True,8299.0168,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:33:09.136000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"The description said +""I'll aim to resolve after ~350 reviews, or 30 days, unless it's really close and more reviews ar",decrease,hold,False,True,19550.8945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T06:22:16.836000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Which poll? The polls linked above are closed.,flip,hold,False,True,252.5048,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:23:23.389000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Achieved, can you close now? I have too much mana locked in this 😁.",flip,decrease,False,True,2033.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:31:41.981000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,What do you mean it's literally written,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T14:30:50.770000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"FYI this is against our +community guidelines + and we have taken action against + +https://manifold.markets/post/ban",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T18:30:28.765000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,you forgot he has no dnd this month,hold,decrease,False,True,900.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:04:49.533000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I remember when I had my own controversial market a while back which was relatively smaller yet pissed off enough better,decrease,flip,False,True,9879.7,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T22:51:39.430000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Comments override descriptions on Manifold. If investors don’t read the comments they’ve only themselves to blame. The c,hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,47.2275,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:34:00.651000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Also, I'm the main guy criticizing you here and I'm not a YES voter. I donated all my shares in the market via a manalin",hold,flip,False,True,21.201,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T17:22:34.151000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Some people just want to watch the world burn. I would just like to point out that with around 2 days left, the base rat",flip,increase,False,True,1965.4319,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T04:31:59.189000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The upper bound for non subatomic matter-based tables and chairs is 10^50, the number of atoms in Earth. Breaking this l",decrease,hold,False,True,160.4944,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-29T07:03:49.739000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"That's the fault of + for not specifying earlier on. Had he included the stipulation of ""breadth"" from the start, much ",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:42:51.351000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I don't know if anyone mentioned this,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T16:06:37.298000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"10% might have been enough if it was the intro & conclusion, but he skipped both. It was a random 20% missing the start.",hold,decrease,False,True,11571.9137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:20:15.598000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This fucker hasn't unbanned me so I can't even be in dgg chat,decrease,hold,False,True,9813.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..562d8e2274ebf657eb0df102e7bf612e4a1d4451 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,67 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:04.933000+00:00,"be sure to view my market I created against PryingMinds, I'm petitioning he be banned or removed from creating markets d",decrease,hold,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T15:53:45.271000+00:00,the market analysis always said no. in community drama isnt going to grow the community,hold,hold,True +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T07:03:07.113000+00:00,I’ve resisted my gambling instinct for too long. The cope is strong,hold,decrease,False +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T03:23:16.482000+00:00,"If + has quit this site and isn't around to resolve this shit... All I'm gonna say.. Don't come to school tomorrow NO b",hold,decrease,False +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-27T22:49:19.959000+00:00,on a serious note Destiny has been vagueposting on both Twitter and on stream and I'm not jumping into conclusions but <,decrease,hold,False +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:21:26.808000+00:00,its like you got a b*ner to leave a comment bro. hop the hell off and let the dude resolve. both sides have made their c,hold,decrease,False +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-06T14:46:06.959000+00:00,Its okay to not understand how things work.,hold,decrease,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-08T06:19:04.852000+00:00,"Counterargument: the news cycle is probably going to be dominated by wacky midterms shit, Lex is going to want to talk a",hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:34:00.651000+00:00,"Also, I'm the main guy criticizing you here and I'm not a YES voter. I donated all my shares in the market via a manalin",hold,decrease,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:02:30.053000+00:00,"""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" ""this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing i",decrease,hold,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:49:53.761000+00:00,"A +quine + is a computer program which takes no input and produces a copy of its own source code as its only output. +i",decrease,decrease,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T14:24:07.149000+00:00,"If we do not find out about it, this will resolve NO",decrease,hold,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T14:30:50.770000+00:00,"FYI this is against our +community guidelines + and we have taken action against + +https://manifold.markets/post/ban",hold,decrease,False +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:26:26.318000+00:00,Yet nobody complained when he clarified the criteria several times in the comments.,decrease,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:41:01.081000+00:00,what's with you people and Autism? autism isn't bad 😤,decrease,hold,False +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T19:58:39.944000+00:00,The definition that has been applied to the argument for chair molecules is simply that experts refer to it as that - th,decrease,hold,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T18:30:28.765000+00:00,you forgot he has no dnd this month,hold,decrease,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T02:28:07.886000+00:00,what exactly does this subjective opinion contribute to the market?,hold,decrease,False +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T11:27:56.709000+00:00,i filled a single buck from it 👍,hold,hold,True +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T11:34:48.948000+00:00,I still think the case of experts sometimes referring to individual molecules of chair conformation cyclohexane as chair,decrease,decrease,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:35:59.917000+00:00,"To be honest, I have no idea. But I somehow put enough limit orders that I ended with a much bigger NO stake that I woul",decrease,decrease,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:32:53.925000+00:00,If I finish on your mom does that mean that I have stopped fucking your mom,decrease,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:04:49.533000+00:00,I remember when I had my own controversial market a while back which was relatively smaller yet pissed off enough better,decrease,decrease,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:19:45.917000+00:00,"this letter doesn't count since it's not about ""powerful AI"" and also it's by the wrong organization",hold,hold,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,decrease,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T02:49:53.327000+00:00,Fuck your garbage market. I am now commited to taking you down,decrease,decrease,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T21:04:24.420000+00:00,"Out of all the arguments from the YES buyers, the +time + argument is the weakest imo. +If +Chud spent +10 hours + t",hold,hold,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T21:06:47.056000+00:00,he owns the aba stock so it makes sense that he has so much capital i guess,hold,hold,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T08:51:25.089000+00:00,"""This market will resolve YES only if Destiny makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of the",hold,hold,True +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:29:53.958000+00:00,Destiny is a very unique streamer. It just so happens that there is heavy overlap between the types of people that enjoy,decrease,hold,False +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:18:09.950000+00:00,"Else reading the first sentence would be enough to satisfy it, which would kinda contradict the ""Destiny must actively r",hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:29:35.565000+00:00,"I don't want to get into an autistic debate about language my criteria in the description says ""when he stops playing it",decrease,hold,False +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T22:51:39.430000+00:00,Comments override descriptions on Manifold. If investors don’t read the comments they’ve only themselves to blame. The c,hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:20:15.598000+00:00,This fucker hasn't unbanned me so I can't even be in dgg chat,decrease,hold,False +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-29T07:03:49.739000+00:00,"That's the fault of + for not specifying earlier on. Had he included the stipulation of ""breadth"" from the start, much ",decrease,decrease,True +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:33:09.136000+00:00,"The description said +""I'll aim to resolve after ~350 reviews, or 30 days, unless it's really close and more reviews ar",decrease,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:38:36.559000+00:00,"Personally I think you should make a more clear determination so we can keep playing this market. Like, 3 days without f",hold,hold,True +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-05T19:40:11.490000+00:00,I love to see delusional people,hold,hold,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T00:16:40.791000+00:00,"Genius. Careful observers will note that I, a signatory, am now an AI-generated figurehead:",decrease,decrease,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T19:14:57.324000+00:00,Bro you are fucked. Lex podcast and just need 20k more and its only the 11th! on top of that Thanksgiving will bring ton,hold,hold,True +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T04:31:59.189000+00:00,"The upper bound for non subatomic matter-based tables and chairs is 10^50, the number of atoms in Earth. Breaking this l",decrease,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:21:50.151000+00:00,"and for any of you thinking he did not finish factorio, I'd bet all of my money that you lot of have played video games ",decrease,hold,False +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:42:38.164000+00:00,Welcome to the hell that has been this market and comment section.,decrease,decrease,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-16T01:53:53.789000+00:00,We need more YES buyers. Where y'all at?,hold,hold,True +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T18:49:04.006000+00:00,"Actually, that means that most non-digital tables consist primarily of chairs.",decrease,hold,False +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T20:34:16.945000+00:00,Please just let me have this 🙏,decrease,hold,False +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T16:06:37.298000+00:00,"10% might have been enough if it was the intro & conclusion, but he skipped both. It was a random 20% missing the start.",hold,decrease,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:54:10.692000+00:00,"mutually agreeable? Resolve as YES, that's the only possible outcome",decrease,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:57:33.395000+00:00,As long as they send it here (I won’t yoink it guys I swear),hold,hold,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T17:31:05.817000+00:00,"If you ignore the rest of the description and only hone in on this one sentence, then sure this would be a Yes resolve. ",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0289aa487734b9d2e8a7cd02c3e13cbc54a39528 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,69 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:26:36.547000+00:00,"in that case he'll never ""finish it"" let's say you didn't put the in the ""next two months"" and the title is just Does De",flip,flip,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T15:53:45.271000+00:00,the market analysis always said no. in community drama isnt going to grow the community,hold,hold,True +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T07:03:07.113000+00:00,I’ve resisted my gambling instinct for too long. The cope is strong,hold,flip,False +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T03:23:16.482000+00:00,"If + has quit this site and isn't around to resolve this shit... All I'm gonna say.. Don't come to school tomorrow NO b",hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:43:36.654000+00:00,"Him working on it in the background means this resolves YES. Everyone understood that for all markets, and we always kne",flip,hold,False +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:21:26.808000+00:00,its like you got a b*ner to leave a comment bro. hop the hell off and let the dude resolve. both sides have made their c,hold,flip,False +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-06T14:46:06.959000+00:00,Its okay to not understand how things work.,hold,hold,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-08T06:19:04.852000+00:00,"Counterargument: the news cycle is probably going to be dominated by wacky midterms shit, Lex is going to want to talk a",hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:34:00.651000+00:00,"Also, I'm the main guy criticizing you here and I'm not a YES voter. I donated all my shares in the market via a manalin",hold,hold,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:25:31.631000+00:00,"I ate limit orders till 42%, go forth and conquer, NO bettors",flip,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:52:12.197000+00:00,ikr it's recording all the trades,flip,hold,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T17:04:13.676000+00:00,": + still holds 2k NO shares, and has only ~200 mana in their cash balance, that seems like it satisfies ""put your mone",flip,hold,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T14:30:50.770000+00:00,"FYI this is against our +community guidelines + and we have taken action against + +https://manifold.markets/post/ban",hold,flip,False +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-14T21:00:40.330000+00:00,Every time there is a fight on stream it is ez money.,flip,hold,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:52:28.840000+00:00,"Does anyone know how + got the insider information? Because the fact that only whales had insider information and no on",flip,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:27:51.506000+00:00,"Personally I will find any ambiguity and argue it infinitely to sow doubt and manipulate markets, it’s part of the game",flip,flip,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T18:30:28.765000+00:00,you forgot he has no dnd this month,hold,hold,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T02:28:07.886000+00:00,what exactly does this subjective opinion contribute to the market?,hold,hold,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T11:27:56.709000+00:00,i filled a single buck from it 👍,hold,hold,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T15:47:59.750000+00:00,"do you know how he did this? I thought about it and to someone like me, a person not versed in this stuff, it looks like",flip,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T13:06:59.773000+00:00,"yeah it's what confuses me, +why would you",flip,hold,False +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T20:02:07.801000+00:00,"This is me right now, why is this god damn video getting this much late tracktion? Will it stop? When? Is it too late?",flip,flip,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T17:07:25.268000+00:00,"I think the resolution to this question necessarily depends on the following days. Destiny could have slept on it, and s",flip,hold,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:19:45.917000+00:00,"this letter doesn't count since it's not about ""powerful AI"" and also it's by the wrong organization",hold,hold,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,hold,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:09:23.006000+00:00,Who will lead that charge? People are too afraid,flip,hold,False +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T21:04:24.420000+00:00,"Out of all the arguments from the YES buyers, the +time + argument is the weakest imo. +If +Chud spent +10 hours + t",hold,flip,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T21:06:47.056000+00:00,he owns the aba stock so it makes sense that he has so much capital i guess,hold,hold,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T08:51:25.089000+00:00,"""This market will resolve YES only if Destiny makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of the",hold,hold,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T14:06:00.486000+00:00,"no way, he was right, there is a +letter",flip,flip,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:18:09.950000+00:00,"Else reading the first sentence would be enough to satisfy it, which would kinda contradict the ""Destiny must actively r",hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:29:34.461000+00:00,Also thanks for clarifying the resolution criteria,flip,hold,False +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T22:51:39.430000+00:00,Comments override descriptions on Manifold. If investors don’t read the comments they’ve only themselves to blame. The c,hold,flip,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:50:46.136000+00:00,"I like to wiggle but I am poor. If you appreciate my wiggling, please share a mana:link +here",flip,hold,False +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T06:22:16.836000+00:00,Which poll? The polls linked above are closed.,flip,hold,False +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:23:23.389000+00:00,"Achieved, can you close now? I have too much mana locked in this 😁.",flip,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:38:36.559000+00:00,"Personally I think you should make a more clear determination so we can keep playing this market. Like, 3 days without f",hold,hold,True +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-05T19:40:11.490000+00:00,I love to see delusional people,hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:31:41.981000+00:00,What do you mean it's literally written,flip,hold,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T19:14:57.324000+00:00,Bro you are fucked. Lex podcast and just need 20k more and its only the 11th! on top of that Thanksgiving will bring ton,hold,flip,False +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T21:27:17.563000+00:00,"were is the +thought we had talked about this?",flip,hold,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:20:15.115000+00:00,"Yes, Hinton and Bengio from 2018: +https://amturing.acm.org/byyear.cfm",flip,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:30:59.062000+00:00,He said that he was going to do the secret ending multiple times you actually think didn't knew about it and still kept ,flip,flip,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-16T01:53:53.789000+00:00,We need more YES buyers. Where y'all at?,hold,flip,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T17:22:34.151000+00:00,"Some people just want to watch the world burn. I would just like to point out that with around 2 days left, the base rat",flip,flip,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-02T22:14:33.697000+00:00,He has been getting 1-2k a day on social blade,flip,hold,False +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T16:06:37.298000+00:00,"10% might have been enough if it was the intro & conclusion, but he skipped both. It was a random 20% missing the start.",hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:42:51.351000+00:00,I don't know if anyone mentioned this,flip,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:57:33.395000+00:00,As long as they send it here (I won’t yoink it guys I swear),hold,hold,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T17:31:05.817000+00:00,"If you ignore the rest of the description and only hone in on this one sentence, then sure this would be a Yes resolve. ",hold,flip,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4843d56d544ecfc0357f39a84ac9309bd15ac9f3 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,124 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:00:53.307000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I am the largest yes holder and im recommending you to just solve it to N/A. Destiny DID finish factorio and is still pl,decrease,flip,False,True,9879.7,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T15:41:38.634000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,A comparable (~85th percentile) result the other way would have made this virtually impossible. Now it's a tossup,increase,decrease,False,True,2897.5716,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:19:13.624000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Ok so if you knew he was never going to stop playing, you should have bought NO when it was at 99%. You are potentially ",increase,decrease,False,True,366.2388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:21:58.139000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Worse, it's recording them on before they happen!",flip,decrease,False,True,85.8776,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-26T00:17:45.990000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I don't think a miracle would be enough 😭,hold,increase,False,True,15953.076,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:08:28.794000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Comments don’t always override the description, though. Not all bettors even read that comment, I’m sure. And slowly is ",decrease,hold,False,True,33.8374,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T12:28:20.512000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,that's why you read past the first line. How did you not realize what you were typing before you hit send?,increase,decrease,False,True,1987.133,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-20T16:56:10.239000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,he's not getting 14k in 10 days. He hasn't even streamed for the past 4 days,hold,increase,False,True,98.1499,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-28T07:08:36.665000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Still plenty of opportunity to make mana on this market!,flip,increase,False,True,1275.862,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T12:03:24.960000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Shoot, I think I’m actually unironically convinced. +As long as it counts if they’re only called “chairs” in specific co",flip,flip,True,True,81.7353,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-14T21:00:40.330000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Every time there is a fight on stream it is ez money.,flip,increase,False,True,302.4864,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T17:22:34.151000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Some people just want to watch the world burn. I would just like to point out that with around 2 days left, the base rat",increase,increase,True,True,1965.4319,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T05:50:20.624000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"i think you misunderstand me, i mean the dip going from 80%+ to 14% despite the direction going towards Yes",decrease,decrease,True,True,808.3389,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T16:31:13.496000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I am pretty new to active trading on Manifold and considering my abysmal record hardly the guy to give opinions. But sin,hold,decrease,False,True,2614.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:17:43.280000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","we're not sure if there's a letter coming, and the probability of maximum uncertainty is 50%. so we're buying the market",increase,hold,False,True,77890.6897,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T11:33:25.757000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Human feces are called ""Stuhl"" in German, ""chair"" translates to ""Stuhl"". I'd estimate hundreds of millions of human fece",hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T20:26:09.483000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"~ The + Report ~ +""If Destiny reacts to someone watching the video or reading the article the market will also resolve ",hold,decrease,False,True,4149.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-24T04:53:32.354000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Anyone want to buy this back to 99 so I can sell more?,flip,increase,False,True,26315.6772,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T00:12:55.478000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Now it's my expert analysis that if, allah forbid, he throws himself on the Rift again August will have absolutely 0 con",decrease,decrease,True,True,180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T21:55:52.019000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",the title makes it clear i think,increase,hold,False,True,35300.7546,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-28T01:03:26.350000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I think RT just doesn't always do a good job of updating stale data. It's not just for reviews flipping between fresh an,flip,hold,False,True,2494.2882,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T05:44:20.666000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,If you're not coping you should buy Yes until it goes up to 50%.,increase,flip,False,True,4078.4262,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T01:59:02.743000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Most common format of 2v2 debates,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:00:06.086000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The IDEA of the ikea chair should be counted as 1 because it is a term/definition. However, the ikea chairs themselves s",increase,hold,False,True,113.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T05:39:26.285000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",If all this somehow directly caused the creation of a new letter we will have lost the human race so many dignity points,decrease,increase,False,True,445.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T23:43:50.410000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Yo, i was just memeing. i didn't actually mean to extend this. I was bringing up arguments from the whales v minnow stuf",flip,decrease,False,True,10.4117,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:17:05.105000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I don't think that it was intended to be that way I mean take the swipe feature in consideration it only shows the title,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:07:52.161000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Ok, I see but obviously hope my understanding is closer to + 's original intent 😁.",increase,hold,False,True,2033.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T20:42:47.594000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Good thing this isn't how markets are resolved. There have been so many instances where the side with less shares has wo,increase,hold,False,True,9152.5036,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:12:36.025000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Do not resolve until it hits 350, or close date, to go against what you said in description would be wrong",flip,hold,False,True,65.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-30T16:26:35.003000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I had my tin foil hat on over my eyes, but I think what I really meant is that it’s more a matter of public perception a",hold,decrease,False,True,1240.5401,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T06:22:16.836000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Which poll? The polls linked above are closed.,decrease,hold,False,True,252.5048,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-23T22:00:55.981000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I've wagered all my life savings on this.,hold,decrease,False,True,644.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T14:11:58.976000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,You're acting as if this was an actual coherent Manifesto. It should be clear to anyone who is in DGG that this lacked m,hold,flip,False,True,289.5136,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T11:46:22.462000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"If they declare an INTENTION to divorce before January, and then finalize the divorce during 2024, this resolves YES",increase,hold,False,True,1787.133,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:43:38.153000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Wait is there actual news or are y'all still trading on the average length of a california divorce?,flip,decrease,False,True,1248.9292,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:26:33.214000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Yeah thats exactly where I am at right now, I know what I meant but its kinda of hard to dispute whether x amount of tim",decrease,decrease,True,True,9823.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T21:51:03.539000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Chud isn't even halfway through yet and won't finish today. If you believe Destiny will actually continue tomorrow and c,decrease,hold,False,True,7375.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T03:17:32.164000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,At the current rate of of 1k subs per day he will end up being 1k short. But considering all he needs is one more produc,increase,increase,True,True,65.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T05:50:46.980000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Counter-buying your yes position is going to be the easiest money this website has ever seen.,increase,increase,True,True,4078.4262,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:06:20.227000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"still possible though. + im assuming that's the one where anyone can make an account and flood it right?",flip,decrease,False,True,11.4944,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-08T20:41:40.919000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Yes, but not if it is finalized the year after that.",hold,hold,True,True,1005.6465,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:23:23.389000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Achieved, can you close now? I have too much mana locked in this 😁.",increase,decrease,False,True,2033.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T15:32:14.741000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",now that Mira took the bait I can sell,increase,decrease,False,True,7000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:49:09.708000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I said even NO share holders thought this was going to resolve YES,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:52:08.114000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","they will lose a bunch of mana and move on, others will gain some mana and this market will be over. the battle will be ",flip,hold,False,True,5560.5198,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T06:19:28.448000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"""Jack Skellington created limit order for Ṁ320 NO at 49%"" +Very secure that 50% is coping right? If you think what I sa",hold,flip,False,True,265.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T14:03:49.148000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","if +, +, @Fedor, and others wants to become greedy and profit off my Wiggles then i will stop doing them. +I eat limit",flip,decrease,False,True,6154.378,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T21:19:43.925000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,15 for today (3 splats / 12 fresh) ..so far,increase,decrease,False,True,10004.9978,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T18:09:08.402000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",no its not a statement its a report with 0 signs,flip,increase,False,True,4268.8758,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-25T20:09:47.581000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Probability of x more rotten reviews (assuming p(rotten)=0.1 and independence): +1 ..... 38.7% +2 .... 17.2% +3 ..... 4.",flip,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T17:23:00.139000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",a second spike has just hit the market,flip,increase,False,True,7835.9785,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:25:26.350000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Despite Manifold views otherwise I don’t think vacillations in the comments really should be relevant: a bit different i,decrease,hold,False,True,9.3225,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T13:47:43.752000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I don't know that I agree it's how ""most people"" interpreted it. I don't know how you can say that just because ""yes"" we",increase,hold,False,True,109.1052,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T10:20:12.607000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Finally someone is saying what we’ve all been thinking. This might as well be sandles Jamaica with all the flop flipping,hold,flip,False,True,1004.5401,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T21:47:20.377000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Ah I suppose that's possible, I don't fully understand how the bots work honestly.",decrease,decrease,True,True,345.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:32:41.589000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Right now, I believe he's only playing the game in the background while he's talking to someone or watching a video. I d",flip,decrease,False,True,95.3894,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:03:06.281000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,There is also a tensor for every point on and in Earth,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T16:48:13.128000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"2022-12-07 / 20 days / 600,000 in future projections",hold,hold,True,True,137.7316,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:13:25.942000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Sorry bro not even remotely true. Title almost never takes precedence on this site. +Comment clarifications > descriptio",increase,increase,True,True,366.2388,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:50:07.277000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,can you explain how I would be able to resolve yes right now without any fucking cope that the market was about him beat,decrease,decrease,True,True,9823.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:53:28.212000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"The description is arguably unclear +""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio --> I'm not sure if there is an e",flip,decrease,False,True,2037.0459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:59:22.541000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I think my problem is that every yes voter thinks I'm a fucking evil person who planned to rugpull from the beginning, t",decrease,decrease,True,True,9823.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-08T16:20:15.958000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I opened the rumble homepage last night and mrgirl was on the frontpage of rumble with 10k ish viewers,increase,increase,True,True,5.8331,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-07T21:58:19.673000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,What is enough to resolve this YES? What if Destiny reacts to a clip of someone else covering it or watches a vod of som,hold,decrease,False,True,211.0764,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T03:48:49.729000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,i reckognise it was prying tanking a big no position but it's still very surprising and unexpected considering the most ,decrease,decrease,True,True,808.3389,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T19:02:11.146000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This market will resolve YES only if Destiny +makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of th",increase,increase,True,True,8952.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T15:11:30.331000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"HE CANT BE STOPPED +ACCORDING TO MY SENTIMENT ANALYSIS AND ADVANCED STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES OUR GREAT DALIBAN LEADER WILL",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:44:41.573000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This is really about whether or not you read the description because I would say that the market question is vague but t,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T08:27:43.063000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",It turns out I was underestimating how heavy trading would continue to be when I created the markets on how many trades ,increase,hold,False,True,217.499,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:31:20.882000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,The fact it got to 97 or 99% means a vast majority of people in this very higher user market had the same view. The meme,hold,decrease,False,True,1003.0779,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-12-04T19:13:01.467000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""...by the end of 2023."" (I still don't think he'll cover it, btw)",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:19:30.084000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",But there is only 2 days left? Why is it still at 50%,increase,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-22T10:01:47.720000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I think the market should be at 65% given the data,decrease,flip,False,True,8149.8831,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T04:31:59.189000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The upper bound for non subatomic matter-based tables and chairs is 10^50, the number of atoms in Earth. Breaking this l",decrease,hold,False,True,160.4944,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T12:30:29.233000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I just woke up, and I was thinking... +Why did I buy all these YES shares...? 😭 +Why do I feel like I'm going to get ru",decrease,decrease,True,True,35359.4522,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T16:18:15.434000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"""If they say they are proceeding with a divorce, I will wait until the end of 2024, and if a divorce happens, I will res",increase,decrease,False,True,95.7869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:18:45.811000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Resolves YES if there is a similar letter as the Pause Letter released by the Future of Life Institute by end of May 202,hold,flip,False,True,6179.1468,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:35:24.464000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"""he's flip flopping"" +""he said he'd close but isn't"" +I have said from the start of the market, that I will extend if ""r",hold,decrease,False,True,15.7896,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:15:10.773000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"(Descriptive and not prescriptive linguistics and all of that), so there is no actual ""right"" and ""wrong"", but these exa",decrease,decrease,True,True,110.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T16:36:04.551000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"my reply isn't ambiguous, i was not updating the description because i did not want to until i had eaten breakfast and s",hold,hold,True,True,15.7896,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T20:09:56.512000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I see 39/376. The 1 is quite literally the difference between 90% and 89%.,increase,hold,False,True,2774.4753,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T20:45:28.830000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,if its prerecorded maybe by the 30th. but they do live podcasts too so it could be live streamed. he hasn't said which ,hold,decrease,False,True,233.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:34:21.319000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Somebody recreate this market for 2024/2025. I want to bet in it,decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T19:53:16.781000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"i'm using the 'Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score' but this change reflects a margin of like, MAYBE 2 reviews 'safer' for 'yes",increase,decrease,False,True,328.3219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-20T17:00:08.265000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Currently 151 of remaining 164 reviews (assuming 350 stopping point) need to be fresh for this to resolve YES - 91.5%. C,flip,decrease,False,True,105.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:34:03.237000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason why he shouldn't resolve as N/A the description was unclear enough to have over 200 people to think t,flip,decrease,False,True,2037.0459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-12-15T18:00:43.058000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,if it comes up with very weak evidence he's going to want to go over how weak and feeble it is. If there's stronger evid,flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:10:14.291000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I did notice an increase in views recently compared to what it used to be and this comment is totally not biased,flip,decrease,False,True,15953.076,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T01:19:09.834000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This market is FUCKING rigged. It says best,hold,decrease,False,True,430.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T15:44:33.639000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"that's because he just finished the main storyline and I think many people have interpreted this question as ""will he be",flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T12:31:07.481000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,People will walk away happy if destiny actually covers it properly. The only reason it has room to be disputed is becaus,hold,increase,False,True,11571.9137,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T10:08:54.230000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"read, discuss, respond, or listen to the +breadth + of the article +Even skipping through “evidence”, he would actually",hold,increase,False,True,12563.8825,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T01:49:24.111000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",ok let me be cleear then: I think insider trading prob is >10%,decrease,decrease,True,True,17106.6262,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T06:51:00.839000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,Thank you for your money I appreciate your kind donation I will take great care of it,decrease,hold,False,True,5251.0305,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T18:40:34.150000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,A reading of the manifeto on destiny's live stream??? looks like a W for the belivers,flip,increase,False,True,1225.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-09T03:03:41.626000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This is a content hedge. Either I get the content I want, or I get more Mana",hold,hold,True,True,1249.7015,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:17:08.043000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"SEELL SELL. If this pays NO, I’ll pay back anyone who lost mana, if this was your introduction to manifold. Let me know",decrease,increase,False,True,12728.132,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:23:38.237000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"market closes after 2 consecutive days of less than 15 reviews. Yesterday had less than 15, so it could close today.",decrease,decrease,True,True,19250.8945,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:07:49.368000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"You aren't Destiny Lil Bro, occams razor can't be used for complicated language arguments. I don't understand how you ca",hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e5dbdb46616720e05a6f7718202722838a55f45f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,118 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:11:09.863000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","No, you interpret the title and description in harmony.",hold,hold,True,True,118975.0618,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T16:15:55.929000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,The description does say the divorce needs to eventually happen for the market to resolve YES,increase,hold,False,True,1668.34,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T13:18:30.456000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",He's unloading his position everyone! There's not going to be a letter.... we were tricked!,decrease,flip,False,True,35359.4522,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T21:51:20.679000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,""" +makes an effort"" +. No one is saying he needs to react to all of it. This was made clear weeks ago. Read the full des",increase,increase,True,True,9352.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T01:41:47.862000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",So glad this market is unlisted. 😭,increase,decrease,False,True,29580.6527,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-19T03:51:38.481000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Isn’t he participating at Middle Guy’s event?,hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T19:15:27.087000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This shit is so boring, destiny will get bored of it before the end.",decrease,increase,False,True,1591.0604,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T23:31:46.209000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,This is the brain of the average NOPER 🔼,flip,increase,False,True,161.8778,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:16:43.692000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"if you had watched the film, and felt positive about it, would that influence or change any of the calculations or chan",flip,decrease,False,True,11.4944,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:38:13.543000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I'm 80% sure its a prank/experiment done my the whales.,flip,hold,False,True,396.5379,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:02:11.783000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Nice :) I think they're a neat feature, I just didn't think they mattered yet!",decrease,hold,False,True,5574.8623,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-08T20:51:52.777000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,want to cancel each others' positions out at 60,increase,decrease,False,True,667.2949,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T21:48:54.022000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"I have a botnet waiting just in case for the 29th-30th, so hop on while the stock is low lads",flip,increase,False,True,91.8778,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T13:11:59.261000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,GUYS FACTORIO IS IN THE PAST NOW!!! 🥳,increase,flip,False,True,234.0774,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:08:28.137000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,You can try to be a condescending person but you aren't intelligent,hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:12:19.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"WSB tier noob trader moment +“If it’s good enough to screenshot, it’s good enough to sell” +Gotta realize those gains ki",flip,decrease,False,True,356.1918,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T17:50:49.663000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"It would need him to enter a completely new community, stop coping and embrace ""NO""!",hold,increase,False,True,490.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T20:27:07.527000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Those of you who are enjoying this discussion of the different ways a thing can be considered a table or chair and would,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T12:52:52.769000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"if you don't play a game for three days are you done with it?????? +should just ask destiny 'do you still play the mod' ",increase,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T13:48:42.179000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"This will pay out I'm sure of it, 10k in a day come one we can do it",hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:45:59.036000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I would not say the resolution criteria for this market is optimally designed but really I’ve seen a lot worse; and also,decrease,hold,False,True,9.3225,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T21:29:21.121000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Yes bettors, you sweating yet?",increase,increase,True,True,5637.4262,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T20:58:03.357000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"doesnt have to, when he is behind and needs to catch up with subs. As time passes and he isnt able to catch up, the chan",increase,increase,True,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:02:47.525000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,All good bro just ignore the first line in the description that has been there from the start,decrease,hold,False,True,687.8724,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:05:14.867000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly if he doesn't play for like a week or 5 days before the close date I think that would be fair,flip,decrease,False,True,3235.0774,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T15:18:12.907000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I think May 31 counts as may 31, and the default assumption is anywhere in the world",flip,hold,False,True,1522.0618,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:11:36.392000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I made 10k on the other markets (that were clearly around completion of the mods normal ending) and I only held 1K Yes h,increase,decrease,False,True,366.2388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T14:15:33.248000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Copy pasting my response to the ""omg look he spent 7 hours sitting there in autopilot droning through Chud's stream"" arg",hold,increase,False,True,11052.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T06:19:05.268000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,That final count down almost felt like new years 😂,flip,hold,False,True,87.1282,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:52:29.924000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"how is it cope?! You clearly manipulated the title vs description to mislead investors. You would've wrote ""WILL DESTINY",decrease,flip,False,True,430.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:36:29.395000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"i went out to work out, saw it had dropped below the odds that align with basic probability +and im right back in",increase,increase,True,True,1360.0439,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:53:48.660000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason to resolve at that moment if he said he wasn't going to play Factorio again because there was always ,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T15:47:41.792000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",holy shit that looks exactly like this market,hold,hold,True,True,3892.7979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T23:34:02.162000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"I just want to also point out he tweeted "" listening to Chud go over my life story + some true crime vids today oh boy -",increase,increase,True,True,1113.4222,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:30:27.224000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I will watch this and any subsequent poems you may drop, and learn from them, for I want to be the best wiggler in town",flip,hold,False,True,8271.934,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:59:26.977000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",5pm on friday and im off... not wiggling on my holidays,flip,hold,False,True,5559.5309,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-30T19:11:11.167000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,she's gotta sign the papers :^),decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-25T21:28:36.885000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,the chance of a 88.5% weighted die flipping 7 out of 9 is 92.5%,decrease,increase,False,True,2530.3758,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T19:59:22.668000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The poll said it was ""A"" chair formation, however it should be ""The"" chair formation, I'm going to argue that the wordin",increase,hold,False,True,113.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T15:21:25.565000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I will personally match each YES share held with 0.000038 BTC by the end of the market +(real)",hold,increase,False,True,3892.7979,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:19:13.624000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Ok so if you knew he was never going to stop playing, you should have bought NO when it was at 99%. You are potentially ",increase,decrease,False,True,366.2388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:23:09.564000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","thats why I'm confused, why is it at 54% and not 50% as all markets should be?",flip,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T02:48:16.212000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",it would tickle my Wiggles sense if this gets RE LISTED,flip,hold,False,True,9110.2568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T22:51:39.430000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Comments override descriptions on Manifold. If investors don’t read the comments they’ve only themselves to blame. The c,hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,47.2275,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-30T00:20:53.580000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,What is happening in this market? Why did this happen again?,increase,hold,False,True,15.0494,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T06:30:26.097000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Have we considered lookup tables in FPGAs? +https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/169532/what-is-an-lut-in-fp",hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T23:16:08.831000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"If you ask the question ""how many tables are there"", the answer would be 10,000 based on your example. However, if you a",increase,flip,False,True,103.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T06:58:27.096000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,If I knew this was happening I would've never cancelled all my old limit orders smh,decrease,decrease,True,True,5462.7597,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T05:48:04.321000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I am done with this market 😄. The mana is not worth the stress, I am not built for checking RT every other hour.",flip,decrease,False,True,1643.0631,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:32:41.589000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Right now, I believe he's only playing the game in the background while he's talking to someone or watching a video. I d",flip,decrease,False,True,95.3894,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:54:52.371000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I just bought a huge position but it isn’t showing up on my profile or under top positions,increase,increase,True,True,911.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T19:53:51.655000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I disagree. It's unlikely that the poll will reach a threshold of 20 traders who have not voted (you mean traded?) on th,flip,decrease,False,True,262.5048,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:43:53.672000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,sorry I meant to say even if he wasn't lying,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T12:26:51.856000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"Aaand, finally got rid of my YES position, you guys really don't like to cut losses, right?). + tell me, what would hap",flip,decrease,False,True,96.5457,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T08:03:44.573000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","i suspect (not sure) that if an unlisted market is listed again, it starts to count towards league profits/rankings, and",increase,hold,False,True,80626.6398,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:35:42.542000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Doesn’t meet the resolution criteria yet.,hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T15:58:14.463000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,does it matter? the creator said it would resolve yes regardless,decrease,decrease,True,True,5653.3852,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T00:31:25.083000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Literally going section by section. This is covering the breadth of the article by all accounts. Time to resolve :^),hold,increase,False,True,3546.5672,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T21:59:17.704000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",i don't think anyone is even reading the title or description at this point 😂,flip,decrease,False,True,4132.634,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T21:05:07.011000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Lol this dude got clapped for his exploiting. Portfolio is now negative all the money he cheated.,increase,hold,False,True,5254.1144,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T14:33:44.134000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Damn, I hoped you might have missed this one, he was holding this market. I don't disagree, I just liked the guy.",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:02:02.372000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,No I am 100% sprite driven I am going to sell all my stock to subsidize the market with the current criteria,decrease,increase,False,True,9823.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T17:32:58.289000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"True, he’ll probably be talking to him live tomorrow 💀💀 pretty sure the manifesto won’t get any airtime tho. He’s not di",increase,increase,True,True,13706.3573,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:44:41.573000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This is really about whether or not you read the description because I would say that the market question is vague but t,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T20:02:07.801000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"This is me right now, why is this god damn video getting this much late tracktion? Will it stop? When? Is it too late?",decrease,decrease,True,True,975.9749,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:19:02.189000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"""I'll aim to resolve after ~350 reviews, or 30 days, +unless it's really close and more reviews are still coming in."" +",decrease,hold,False,True,19550.8945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:01:54.665000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I see what you're saying and there's a lot of precedent on Manifold for that way of thinking. in this case, the phrase """,increase,hold,False,True,106.3837,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-12-04T18:58:13.653000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"He postponed the release to January, buy your No / sell your Yes",hold,flip,False,True,18.7561,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T20:14:55.899000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"OH WOW, not like one better-than-average video can propel us to 600k!",decrease,decrease,True,True,172.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T02:08:31.130000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Warning: this is my subjective opinion +A letter from anyone would be daft, to be honest. These letters won't do what th",decrease,increase,False,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:49:53.761000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","A +quine + is a computer program which takes no input and produces a copy of its own source code as its only output. +i",decrease,hold,False,True,5778.8832,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-08T21:14:30.632000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Florida law § 61.021 Residence requirements.—To obtain a dissolution of marriage, one of the parties to the marriage mus",increase,decrease,False,True,3641.0737,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-12T08:13:01.010000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I don't think anyone thinks hes gonna go over all 150 pages. he will prob go over some of the most important parts or if,increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-11T05:39:59.921000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"If there is any serious claim at all in the manfiesto he'll have to review it even if its false. +If it goes viral on LS",hold,increase,False,True,299.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T20:21:48.158000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"can't fight the algorithm, 400k here we come",hold,increase,False,True,8500.9852,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-23T09:32:41.394000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I think if it drops, ull probably not want to switch cuz that would be a bad sign no?",hold,decrease,False,True,2828.4167,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:44:57.084000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Yeah but also at the same time I could have clarified more,decrease,decrease,True,True,9823.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T16:56:12.329000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"lol, nice. Thanks, maybe I will really need it 😁.",hold,hold,True,True,2614.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:22:22.119000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"even though i sold all my NO position with a loss, I think that description was pretty clear: ""stops playing Factorio"" a",increase,decrease,False,True,904.1437,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:05:45.607000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I a scale of 1 to 10 how biased would you say you are in this situation? 😂,decrease,decrease,True,True,2284.3361,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:30:44.422000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Luckily you have like 8 days, so you have time to pressure him into not playing the game. PepeLaugh goodluck though",decrease,hold,False,True,9813.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T19:36:34.372000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,one update: rotten tomatoes rounds UP to 90 at at least 89.958. this means virtually all my estimates on 'proportion fre,increase,hold,False,True,328.3219,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T16:31:13.496000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I am pretty new to active trading on Manifold and considering my abysmal record hardly the guy to give opinions. But sin,hold,decrease,False,True,2614.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T01:48:16.875000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The spirit is willing, but the chair is weak.",flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T22:49:11.361000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"How about tensors? If we are counting data tables, tensors are just tables with some additional structure.",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T05:47:57.549000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i created an AI Destiny and even he doesnt want to cover it.,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T13:29:08.335000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","at least it stopped swinging from 20% to 80%, and now stays in the 45% to 55% range...",increase,hold,False,True,34.2332,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T21:57:41.020000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"""I have said from the start of the market, that I will extend if ""reviews are still coming in"" +Damn, I wish I read that",flip,decrease,False,True,671.1937,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:31:41.981000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,What do you mean it's literally written,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T16:17:28.670000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"This is like printing money, once this market resolves there will be a VOID in my profits",hold,increase,False,True,450.1857,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T00:40:03.687000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Nopers delusional. D man is about to have a podcast on No Jumper debating Fuentes, Yiannopolus, and Ye. Shit's going to ",hold,increase,False,True,3187.5132,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T10:12:17.673000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,the poll seems to have the voters hidden? Or can the creator still see them?,decrease,hold,False,True,72.6644,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T22:54:52.459000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I will be victorious this time.,hold,increase,False,True,9256.645,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-27T22:49:19.959000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,on a serious note Destiny has been vagueposting on both Twitter and on stream and I'm not jumping into conclusions but <,decrease,increase,False,True,203.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T21:48:25.774000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,It's definitely less than halfway and I'm taking into account the parts Destiny missed whenever he leaves his room into ,hold,hold,True,True,10952.5036,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:12:36.025000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Do not resolve until it hits 350, or close date, to go against what you said in description would be wrong",flip,hold,False,True,65.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T06:52:02.948000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,they have to announce a 'divorce' not a 'split' though.,flip,decrease,False,True,31.6821,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-19T03:56:30.803000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"He is! He’s doing two tomorrow in Texas for Modern Day Debates. Kinda major for just 14k subs, no?",hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T01:23:56.414000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"No, stop rules lawyering. If 36/350 reviews aren't rotten, this should resolve yes",decrease,flip,False,True,1.0011,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T05:42:57.935000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Views have dropped each day for the past 5 days, didn't even get 1k subs yesterday. More travel, planning for canvassing",decrease,decrease,True,True,4319.5858,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a2653edfc20eb3f17bb2fb43da6726f3bb23f7bd --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,126 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T08:51:25.089000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""This market will resolve YES only if Destiny makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of the",hold,increase,False,True,210.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:41:01.081000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,what's with you people and Autism? autism isn't bad 😤,decrease,hold,False,True,5311.3361,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T18:49:04.006000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Actually, that means that most non-digital tables consist primarily of chairs.",decrease,decrease,True,True,110.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:18:56.672000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I see it as we hit the goal here is proof and now we wait for 350 reviews or 30 days which ever comes first.,increase,hold,False,True,350.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T23:24:05.892000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"""chair conformation"" is a term that talks about how the cyclohexane molecules are arranged. A ""positive integer"" is a te",increase,hold,False,True,103.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T13:22:41.408000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"lmao, I will it make sure to remember to laugh at u when it won't happen",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:20:15.115000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Yes, Hinton and Bengio from 2018: +https://amturing.acm.org/byyear.cfm",flip,flip,True,True,4326.877,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T07:03:07.113000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I’ve resisted my gambling instinct for too long. The cope is strong,hold,flip,False,True,827.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T21:27:17.563000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"were is the +thought we had talked about this?",flip,hold,False,True,975.9749,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:09:23.006000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Who will lead that charge? People are too afraid,flip,increase,False,True,4414.5098,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:30:59.062000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He said that he was going to do the secret ending multiple times you actually think didn't knew about it and still kept ,flip,decrease,False,True,2037.0459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T11:12:50.616000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Does this parse as: +Resolves YES if there is (a similar letter as the Pause Letter) released by the Future of Life Inst",increase,hold,False,True,1090.2391,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T00:16:40.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Genius. Careful observers will note that I, a signatory, am now an AI-generated figurehead:",decrease,hold,False,True,6564.8623,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-12T12:42:15.084000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,All they're saying is that for this to resolve YES someone has to show evidence that the divorce has finalized. It's not,increase,hold,False,True,7134.7611,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T19:14:57.324000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Bro you are fucked. Lex podcast and just need 20k more and its only the 11th! on top of that Thanksgiving will bring ton,hold,increase,False,True,260.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T17:04:13.676000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",": + still holds 2k NO shares, and has only ~200 mana in their cash balance, that seems like it satisfies ""put your mone",flip,hold,False,True,1365.4527,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-06T14:46:06.959000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Its okay to not understand how things work.,hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T21:06:47.056000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,he owns the aba stock so it makes sense that he has so much capital i guess,hold,hold,True,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:52:12.197000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,ikr it's recording all the trades,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T22:19:24.153000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Even if he gains 1k sub per day (highly unlikely), he will not hit the 600k sub mark. You would have to be insane to not",increase,increase,True,True,401.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:29:53.958000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Destiny is a very unique streamer. It just so happens that there is heavy overlap between the types of people that enjoy,decrease,hold,False,True,850.6887,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T17:31:05.817000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"If you ignore the rest of the description and only hone in on this one sentence, then sure this would be a Yes resolve. ",hold,increase,False,True,10852.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-23T14:36:29.995000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Agreed. The most coverage I could see it getting besides what you already said is some of the more humorous extrapolatio,increase,increase,True,True,33.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T00:25:45.810000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""He is even Watching Mr. Girl talk about it now live, which is yet another criteria for another yes"". Point to me where ",increase,flip,False,True,9852.5036,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:02:30.053000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" ""this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing i",decrease,hold,False,True,400.4119,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T15:47:59.750000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"do you know how he did this? I thought about it and to someone like me, a person not versed in this stuff, it looks like",flip,decrease,False,True,31.2954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T01:06:47.714000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,193/213 reviews from now on need to be positive to resolve YES,increase,decrease,False,True,95.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T02:28:07.886000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",what exactly does this subjective opinion contribute to the market?,hold,hold,True,True,3814.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T13:06:59.773000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"yeah it's what confuses me, +why would you",flip,decrease,False,True,348.5825,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:21:50.151000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"and for any of you thinking he did not finish factorio, I'd bet all of my money that you lot of have played video games ",decrease,increase,False,True,9879.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:29:34.461000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Also thanks for clarifying the resolution criteria,flip,hold,False,True,2318.3211,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T22:47:20.703000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The description said ""Anything called a chair or table (e.g., multiplication tables, positions of authority) counts, but",increase,increase,True,True,103.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-05T19:40:11.490000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I love to see delusional people,hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:19:13.624000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Ok so if you knew he was never going to stop playing, you should have bought NO when it was at 99%. You are potentially ",increase,decrease,False,True,366.2388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:38:36.559000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Personally I think you should make a more clear determination so we can keep playing this market. Like, 3 days without f",hold,increase,False,True,443.8341,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T14:06:00.486000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","no way, he was right, there is a +letter",flip,hold,False,True,7954.6967,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:32:53.925000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,If I finish on your mom does that mean that I have stopped fucking your mom,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T11:34:48.948000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I still think the case of experts sometimes referring to individual molecules of chair conformation cyclohexane as chair,decrease,increase,False,True,155.9872,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T05:55:14.024000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,my ended market is probably worse,increase,decrease,False,True,4855.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T20:02:07.801000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"This is me right now, why is this god damn video getting this much late tracktion? Will it stop? When? Is it too late?",flip,decrease,False,True,975.9749,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:42:15.332000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,must be nice. My graph is all in the red. Hahaha. Somehow I still am making mana.,increase,decrease,False,True,128.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T18:15:18.922000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"YO, FUCK THESE NEW SITE SOUNDS. IT'S WAY TOO FUCKIN LOUD, WE NEED TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS.",increase,hold,False,True,5903.4695,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-02T22:14:33.697000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,He has been getting 1-2k a day on social blade,flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T03:23:16.482000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"If + has quit this site and isn't around to resolve this shit... All I'm gonna say.. Don't come to school tomorrow NO b",hold,decrease,False,True,6710.7015,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T07:20:02.718000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Unless there's a particularly bleak spree of negative reviews, I don't see the score deviating much for each future revi",increase,hold,False,True,917.0089,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:25:31.631000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I ate limit orders till 42%, go forth and conquer, NO bettors",flip,increase,False,True,4671.068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,decrease,False,True,8175.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T16:27:35.532000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think a table needs to have some physical manifestation, not just exist mathematically.",increase,hold,False,True,159.1713,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:49:53.761000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","A +quine + is a computer program which takes no input and produces a copy of its own source code as its only output. +i",decrease,hold,False,True,5778.8832,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:26:36.547000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"in that case he'll never ""finish it"" let's say you didn't put the in the ""next two months"" and the title is just Does De",flip,flip,True,True,3235.0774,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T17:07:25.268000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I think the resolution to this question necessarily depends on the following days. Destiny could have slept on it, and s",flip,decrease,False,True,94.1554,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:52:28.840000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Does anyone know how + got the insider information? Because the fact that only whales had insider information and no on",flip,decrease,False,True,1687.9568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:43:36.654000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Him working on it in the background means this resolves YES. Everyone understood that for all markets, and we always kne",flip,increase,False,True,727.9397,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T12:17:34.893000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"he's going for the real ending, it's not ""when he stops playing factorio (on stream)"". +the title doesn't even mention t",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-14T21:00:40.330000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Every time there is a fight on stream it is ez money.,flip,increase,False,True,302.4864,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:57:33.395000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,As long as they send it here (I won’t yoink it guys I swear),hold,hold,True,True,514.2388,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:27:51.506000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Personally I will find any ambiguity and argue it infinitely to sow doubt and manipulate markets, it’s part of the game",flip,decrease,False,True,356.1918,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:54:10.692000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"mutually agreeable? Resolve as YES, that's the only possible outcome",decrease,increase,False,True,430.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:39:34.251000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",sounds like you should buy this market down to 20% then,increase,decrease,False,True,92565.6897,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T15:53:45.271000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,the market analysis always said no. in community drama isnt going to grow the community,hold,increase,False,True,566.2037,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T19:58:39.944000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,The definition that has been applied to the argument for chair molecules is simply that experts refer to it as that - th,decrease,hold,False,True,95.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-16T01:53:53.789000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,We need more YES buyers. Where y'all at?,hold,hold,True,True,5250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T14:24:07.149000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","If we do not find out about it, this will resolve NO",decrease,hold,False,True,1146.0533,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T02:06:33.842000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Well if someone manipulates 1,000 subs for fake internet points that would be pretty sad. But I guess people have done s",increase,hold,False,True,194.337,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T02:49:53.327000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Fuck your garbage market. I am now commited to taking you down,decrease,flip,False,True,430.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-27T22:49:19.959000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,on a serious note Destiny has been vagueposting on both Twitter and on stream and I'm not jumping into conclusions but <,decrease,increase,False,True,203.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T21:59:22.319000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Leagues strongly affected how I think and feel about my profits and losses. I now have clear goals in my mind ""don't los",increase,hold,False,True,16285.2231,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:42:38.164000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Welcome to the hell that has been this market and comment section.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1284.629,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:29:35.565000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I don't want to get into an autistic debate about language my criteria in the description says ""when he stops playing it",decrease,hold,False,True,9813.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T11:27:56.709000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i filled a single buck from it 👍,hold,decrease,False,True,2150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:18:09.950000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Else reading the first sentence would be enough to satisfy it, which would kinda contradict the ""Destiny must actively r",hold,hold,True,True,165.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-20T21:53:28.051000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","it's high mostly because I'm buying YES. If you think the resolution will be a NO, I've set up a huge limit order at 50%",increase,decrease,False,True,420.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:26:26.318000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Yet nobody complained when he clarified the criteria several times in the comments.,decrease,hold,False,True,19550.8945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-24T19:54:16.789000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I think you’re basically spot on with the “pre-reading” prediction. Knowing the actual content is going to be pretty nas,increase,decrease,False,True,97.8741,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:21:26.808000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,its like you got a b*ner to leave a comment bro. hop the hell off and let the dude resolve. both sides have made their c,hold,decrease,False,True,9256.645,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T20:34:16.945000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Please just let me have this 🙏,decrease,decrease,True,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-08T06:19:04.852000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Counterargument: the news cycle is probably going to be dominated by wacky midterms shit, Lex is going to want to talk a",hold,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T20:13:33.516000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,The criteria for resolving Yes is in the description. Destiny hasn't met even the most basic one. If you want to keep be,increase,increase,True,True,9152.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T21:04:24.420000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Out of all the arguments from the YES buyers, the +time + argument is the weakest imo. +If +Chud spent +10 hours + t",hold,increase,False,True,10952.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:35:59.917000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","To be honest, I have no idea. But I somehow put enough limit orders that I ended with a much bigger NO stake that I woul",decrease,decrease,True,True,3696.4178,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:04.933000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"be sure to view my market I created against PryingMinds, I'm petitioning he be banned or removed from creating markets d",decrease,hold,False,True,430.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:19:45.917000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","this letter doesn't count since it's not about ""powerful AI"" and also it's by the wrong organization",hold,hold,True,True,6179.1468,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T18:32:56.070000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",This has nothing to do with the market,increase,hold,False,True,4117.7979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T00:16:47.905000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"and when it the reviews actually slow down to about 1 per week (that sounds fair) it enters ""pseudorandom close mode"", w",increase,hold,False,True,10.4117,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:50:46.136000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I like to wiggle but I am poor. If you appreciate my wiggling, please share a mana:link +here",flip,hold,False,True,8299.0168,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:33:09.136000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"The description said +""I'll aim to resolve after ~350 reviews, or 30 days, unless it's really close and more reviews ar",decrease,hold,False,True,19550.8945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T06:22:16.836000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Which poll? The polls linked above are closed.,flip,hold,False,True,252.5048,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:23:23.389000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Achieved, can you close now? I have too much mana locked in this 😁.",flip,decrease,False,True,2033.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:31:41.981000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,What do you mean it's literally written,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-22T14:30:50.770000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"FYI this is against our +community guidelines + and we have taken action against + +https://manifold.markets/post/ban",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T18:30:28.765000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,you forgot he has no dnd this month,hold,decrease,False,True,900.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:04:49.533000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I remember when I had my own controversial market a while back which was relatively smaller yet pissed off enough better,decrease,flip,False,True,9879.7,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T22:51:39.430000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Comments override descriptions on Manifold. If investors don’t read the comments they’ve only themselves to blame. The c,hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,47.2275,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:34:00.651000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Also, I'm the main guy criticizing you here and I'm not a YES voter. I donated all my shares in the market via a manalin",hold,flip,False,True,21.201,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T17:22:34.151000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Some people just want to watch the world burn. I would just like to point out that with around 2 days left, the base rat",flip,increase,False,True,1965.4319,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T04:31:59.189000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"The upper bound for non subatomic matter-based tables and chairs is 10^50, the number of atoms in Earth. Breaking this l",decrease,hold,False,True,160.4944,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-29T07:03:49.739000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"That's the fault of + for not specifying earlier on. Had he included the stipulation of ""breadth"" from the start, much ",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:42:51.351000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I don't know if anyone mentioned this,flip,hold,False,True,3235.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T16:06:37.298000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"10% might have been enough if it was the intro & conclusion, but he skipped both. It was a random 20% missing the start.",hold,decrease,False,True,11571.9137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:20:15.598000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This fucker hasn't unbanned me so I can't even be in dgg chat,decrease,hold,False,True,9813.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8beb0afcfbdebda48b3003cbcb77d6d2fb73b1b7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,132 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-19T02:42:42.003000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This guy has troll resolved before, trade with caution",hold,decrease,False,True,1469.7015,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:02:30.053000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" ""this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing i",decrease,hold,False,True,400.4119,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T22:23:55.086000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,wait i refreshed the page now its 377 review again.. wth,decrease,decrease,True,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T12:28:20.512000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,that's why you read past the first line. How did you not realize what you were typing before you hit send?,increase,decrease,False,True,1987.133,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T20:35:13.554000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"I don't know how this can resolve to anything but YES when Destiny spent 5-6 hours watching chud go over the article, ga",increase,increase,True,True,2113.4695,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-10T12:19:42.087000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Ain't no way you can start proceedings in late 2023 and not be fully divorced by 2025, I refuse to believe it.",increase,increase,True,True,3360.3162,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:51:40.177000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Fellas I just dumped all my NO, why is this sub 50? Y’all realise he can still quit in the next 10 days",flip,flip,True,True,356.1918,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T20:05:16.086000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,love to see a non complainer winning,hold,hold,True,True,15.7896,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-11-22T19:42:22.578000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"destiny said on stream that he's definitely not gonna cover it. +https://youtu.be/LN6Unml5UH4 + at around 45min",flip,flip,True,True,3.3263,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:12:36.025000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Do not resolve until it hits 350, or close date, to go against what you said in description would be wrong",flip,hold,False,True,65.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T01:39:28.635000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"""Chair"" does mean ""flesh"" in French. Surely this opens a new avenue of attack.",flip,decrease,False,True,2.5794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T21:41:55.353000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Seeing this notification and then the current market rate was also a nice surprise!,increase,hold,False,True,16.5026,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:06:38.268000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I don't know what to fucking do, resolving N/A is fucking cringe and to be honest fuck all you yes voters crying about h",decrease,increase,False,True,9823.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:50:38.684000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",someone should do that so i can be first in my league,increase,decrease,False,True,5000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T06:54:48.310000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,sorry but a full stop on my link sending isntpossible,hold,hold,True,True,8145.8616,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-20T22:53:54.776000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Oh weird, yeah. I think 350 is more than enough in 98% of scenarios. I’m being noncommittal on the off chance we enter i",flip,hold,False,True,105.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:01:11.645000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Ok if we are trying to get at the essence of what I was saying in the description, I would say that I meant when Destiny",hold,decrease,False,True,9823.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-30T02:37:29.408000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,This market has been argued into such a retarded spot by the degenerate autists. This market started out so vague that w,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:06:20.227000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"still possible though. + im assuming that's the one where anyone can make an account and flood it right?",flip,decrease,False,True,11.4944,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T08:00:33.861000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","this might be a dumb question, but why does it matter if it's listed or not?",increase,hold,False,True,1242.8449,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T06:50:02.451000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"The description says they just have to announce it, and then EVENTUALLY formalize it",decrease,decrease,True,True,10300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:48:04.860000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,yo this is the greatest rug pull in manifold history 😂,hold,decrease,False,True,3806.7486,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T22:09:05.335000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,If you have suggestions on better ways to deal with the mild ambiguity of 'if reviews are still coming in and its close',increase,hold,False,True,30.3269,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T14:47:18.453000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,With the Hasan/Lav drama bump and the lsf clips he's on track too get really close too 600k. When he gets around 595k th,increase,increase,True,True,621.5422,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T17:34:39.073000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Guys, I'm worried. Subscriber ballots are not secure enough.",decrease,decrease,True,True,461.2674,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T01:23:56.414000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"No, stop rules lawyering. If 36/350 reviews aren't rotten, this should resolve yes",flip,flip,True,True,1.0011,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:07:03.037000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","it shouldn't be stable though, it should be falling by like 9 percentage points a day",increase,decrease,False,True,24.9215,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T19:48:37.350000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Yes, the pace of reviews declining combined with the huge net deficit for 90% points to resolution.",hold,increase,False,True,15.7896,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:26:01.382000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I see what you mean. How about this, if he plays Factorio in the background while watching a video or talking to someone",flip,decrease,False,True,95.3894,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:31:08.362000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I agree it is preferable to update the description of the market, but the comment was perfectly inline with a reasonable",decrease,hold,False,True,19250.8945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T17:07:25.268000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"I think the resolution to this question necessarily depends on the following days. Destiny could have slept on it, and s",flip,decrease,False,True,94.1554,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-12-10T16:33:04.244000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,BRO IMMA MADE BANK ON THIS SHIT,increase,increase,True,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T13:26:10.808000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",This is the rug pull they've been dreading!,hold,decrease,False,True,4241.856,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T02:42:03.016000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"he reacted to the breadth of the article in which he felt vindicated that MrGirl failed to provide any adequate story. +",increase,decrease,False,True,13142.6432,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-22T19:47:47.515000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"He just mentioned on stream that its finalized, about 1 hour 45 minutes into this stream: +https://www.youtube.com/live",hold,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T18:40:34.150000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,A reading of the manifeto on destiny's live stream??? looks like a W for the belivers,flip,increase,False,True,1225.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T16:47:03.442000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",not well recognized maybe. not public discussion around this i've seen. Also this calls for research in consciousness du,decrease,decrease,True,True,1086.2417,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T12:30:29.233000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I just woke up, and I was thinking... +Why did I buy all these YES shares...? 😭 +Why do I feel like I'm going to get ru",decrease,decrease,True,True,35359.4522,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T16:20:55.389000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"before 2024? The deadline is in less than a month, no? +Edit: oh wait I see what you mean",increase,decrease,False,True,95.7869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T18:09:08.402000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",no its not a statement its a report with 0 signs,flip,increase,False,True,4268.8758,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-20T05:20:22.720000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","In the description, the pause letter is +this +, presumably?",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:29:56.664000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I would like to argue your point made through Lehninger's Principles of Biochemistry. On page 248, the first where the f",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:10:30.908000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,So there's no way you'll resolve to N/A?,flip,decrease,False,True,2037.0459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:10:33.783000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",The admins committed to resolving the markets correctly. Just as much they are committed to this I am committed to shitp,hold,hold,True,True,3448.4048,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T16:19:15.758000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"It's an understandable mistake, but note the year.",increase,decrease,False,True,600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T06:19:05.268000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,That final count down almost felt like new years 😂,flip,hold,False,True,87.1282,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T22:03:33.903000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,TIME TO PAY UP BITCHES!!!! STOP COPING !!!! PEPE WINS !!!!,hold,increase,False,True,1572.2888,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-22T00:28:17.284000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,sum1 plz yt ad that vid .. get them #s up 📈📈📈,increase,increase,True,True,660.291,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T06:22:16.836000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Which poll? The polls linked above are closed.,decrease,hold,False,True,252.5048,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-17T18:53:06.935000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Okay, so from this paper the number of lookup tables here is the number of cells (about 10^30), since ribosomes can only",flip,decrease,False,True,523.8193,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T02:48:16.212000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",it would tickle my Wiggles sense if this gets RE LISTED,flip,hold,False,True,9110.2568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:53:48.660000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason to resolve at that moment if he said he wasn't going to play Factorio again because there was always ,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T05:27:01.144000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Did the obvious thing and Emailed Geoffrey Hinton.,flip,decrease,False,True,1687.9568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-14T06:05:25.067000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,im going with yes based on daily averages.,increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:49:09.708000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I said even NO share holders thought this was going to resolve YES,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-20T22:50:28.885000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"IMO, you should just resolve at 350 reviews. That gives clear closing criteria and fits with the original market descrip",hold,hold,True,True,1098.6527,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T14:06:00.486000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","no way, he was right, there is a +letter",flip,hold,False,True,7954.6967,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:09:01.032000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"can you tell me some world where you can interpret ""when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" in any other way without Copium",decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-09T06:07:11.634000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,HE ENDED STREAM BEFORE THE MIDTERMS OMEGALUL. EZ,increase,hold,False,True,213.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-27T14:28:04.631000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,has he stated he isn't going for the true ending? I haven't really been wwatching recently,hold,decrease,False,True,9271.6603,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T01:35:10.104000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","""Does anyone want to claim that they actually think there's a >10% probability of a letter in the next couple of days?"" ",decrease,decrease,True,True,17151.1147,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-30T14:31:06.293000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Ohh you actually think this is going to resolve YES 💀,hold,increase,False,True,12371.9137,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-22T10:52:13.754000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,362k ALREADY???? WTF?! WHY IS THIS VIDEO GROWING SO MUCH? 😭,decrease,flip,False,True,8149.8831,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T21:51:20.679000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,""" +makes an effort"" +. No one is saying he needs to react to all of it. This was made clear weeks ago. Read the full des",increase,increase,True,True,9352.5036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:44:19.120000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I'm going to make massive bank,decrease,increase,False,True,2284.3361,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-12-15T16:53:04.657000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Destiny said he won't react to it and i took his word for it. I'm starting to doubt, but i'm in too deep now.",decrease,decrease,True,True,1150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T13:17:17.103000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Considering it's not going to happen, that's just free money for me.",increase,increase,True,True,4903.4262,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-28T05:11:47.109000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"https://old.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/185jwbj/the_thread_to_speculate_about_the_impending_drama/ + if you want to go",decrease,decrease,True,True,203.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T19:15:11.116000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Do you not read the description, which is as follows- +""We'll call it well-recognized if it gets signed by at least 10 b",decrease,hold,False,True,1366.954,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:28:57.815000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Yes, the description contradicts itself. It doesn't contradict the title, my dude, I have not even mentioned the title i",hold,decrease,False,True,21.201,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T18:18:42.880000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"Well boys it's come, the time of pure sorrow",hold,decrease,False,True,3153.3155,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T21:34:28.688000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Not exaggerating- Rotten Tomatoes has flipped between 89 and 90 6 or 7 times without any new reviews coming in, simply ",increase,decrease,False,True,3617.1338,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:17:20.593000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Hope everyone had fun, welcome to manifold",decrease,hold,False,True,12728.132,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T17:57:37.826000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Actually looking into it more, the top 400,000 github repos have over a a billion files according to +https://hoffa.med",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T05:18:22.618000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Tough call? He kind of tried to make it look like he was reacting, without actually saying anything or responding to a f",hold,decrease,False,True,11571.9137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:43:16.156000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I (and presumably many other people) were trading specifically based on the resolution criteria that was previously outl,decrease,decrease,True,True,19550.8945,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:50:55.774000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Responding in order again: +The description is made out of a statement that can never be true unless changed, so it's se",hold,flip,False,True,21.201,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:07:52.161000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Ok, I see but obviously hope my understanding is closer to + 's original intent 😁.",increase,hold,False,True,2033.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-02T18:52:01.835000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,The lex podcast has a chance to boost it ngl,hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T19:20:55.031000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"
+ is 15 bytes, +I don't promise not to +rm tables + before this resolves though. This is a pretty damn",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:34:21.319000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Somebody recreate this market for 2024/2025. I want to bet in it,decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T01:45:28.673000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Unless it gets relisted last-minute,hold,decrease,False,True,2375.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:01:57.957000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",It's not strategies it is about the dynamics.,increase,hold,False,True,349.9868,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T10:30:58.087000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"you motherfucker are betting against your market and delaying the outcome because he started up again? +he finished the ",increase,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-24T04:53:32.354000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Anyone want to buy this back to 99 so I can sell more?,flip,increase,False,True,26315.6772,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-30T19:11:11.167000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,she's gotta sign the papers :^),decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T06:15:33.441000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,even more so because I originally didn't sign up for this 😁,flip,hold,False,True,1643.0631,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:12:19.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"WSB tier noob trader moment +“If it’s good enough to screenshot, it’s good enough to sell” +Gotta realize those gains ki",flip,decrease,False,True,356.1918,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:34:03.237000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason why he shouldn't resolve as N/A the description was unclear enough to have over 200 people to think t,flip,decrease,False,True,2037.0459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T13:22:41.408000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"lmao, I will it make sure to remember to laugh at u when it won't happen",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:11:00.109000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"you could also be like + and just never resolve markets you aren't sure how to resolve",hold,decrease,False,True,3235.0774,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T12:43:10.039000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I think there is +Demand +, so there must be +Supply",decrease,decrease,True,True,4695.4348,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-09T07:41:50.261000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"No, Lex already confirmed that the podcast is releasing on the 10th or on the 11th.",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T02:34:59.864000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"You guys are talking about how far he got into the Kick stream, but you're referencing Mia rose and Ddos kid stuff that ",hold,increase,False,True,11571.9137,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:36:39.451000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Time to throw some clarification in the description +In these comments: +“I don't want to get into an autistic debate a",flip,decrease,False,True,356.1918,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T15:18:21.761000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",even if the resolution period changed from 7.5 to 8.5 days remaining I don't think that changes the probability that muc,decrease,hold,False,True,103.5634,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-20T06:03:08.948000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Social blade just updated, views week over week went from 2.3m to 4m... But even with nearly 2m extra views last week, n",decrease,decrease,True,True,2402.8897,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-17T17:50:19.262000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I mean, it certainly is possible for the ribosome to be referred to as containing a table. The introduction of this pape",flip,flip,True,True,523.8193,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:42:15.332000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,must be nice. My graph is all in the red. Hahaha. Somehow I still am making mana.,hold,decrease,False,True,128.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T19:15:27.087000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This shit is so boring, destiny will get bored of it before the end.",decrease,increase,False,True,1591.0604,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c18c7f02e0cf672713ec6522e60ae46cecd84e25 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,123 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-17T18:19:47.099000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"That seems to state directly that there exists one table, the set of tRNAs. Which, notably, are not part of the ribosome",hold,decrease,False,True,157.9171,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T11:17:55.980000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"thank you for the superb extra evidence, my apologies that I wasn't able to back you up in time",decrease,decrease,True,True,155.9872,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:55:39.538000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"We should be very clear that this is merely a +clarification + of the resolution criteria, not a contradiction. In no w",decrease,hold,False,True,12631.2736,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T23:39:12.076000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Careful y'all. The force of pushing your glasses into position can crack your skulls if done too hard.,increase,hold,False,True,2.5794,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T18:34:37.263000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",The most hilarious thing is that the letter in question was heavily pushed by a company that Gigacasting loves to simp f,increase,decrease,False,True,4117.7979,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T05:28:27.510000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,its almost like we know each other,increase,hold,False,True,4792.7288,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T08:38:20.503000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","This market is priced at around 15 times the base rate. On March 22, around 113 days since the launch of ChatGPT brought",flip,increase,False,True,6943.9375,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T06:55:55.450000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Ṁ16,000 NO +Ṁ7,000 Cost basis +It's so clean, I might leave it here. +I'd love to know what you guys think an ""active re",hold,increase,False,True,7000.7015,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:58:39.428000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I can see that is a possible way of reading this, but: +1) The way I mentioned earlier is IMHO more natural. Being a pro",flip,hold,False,True,2033.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T20:25:10.384000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I can't imagine this drama is enjoyable for everyone. It kind of cancels some of the Lex bump.,flip,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-27T14:27:06.401000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Days off, podcasting, with any luck, he’ll still take three weeks to pull off the big finish",flip,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-11-24T20:33:27.361000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Face it, he won't be able to resist",increase,increase,True,True,42.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:40:44.278000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Yeah but the problem with that Criteria is that my market is a 2 month period and the resolve date is on the 12th so tha,decrease,decrease,True,True,9823.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T22:52:20.058000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"That's right. If you search up ""chair cyclohexane"", nothing pops up, except for ""chair configuration"", or ""chair flips"".",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:59:37.762000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"You're realize you're doing a Sneako but just dressing it up in debatelord terms right? +Neither you nor Sneako actuall",hold,decrease,False,True,21.201,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:30:27.224000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I will watch this and any subsequent poems you may drop, and learn from them, for I want to be the best wiggler in town",flip,hold,False,True,8271.934,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T16:04:29.084000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,how's that guy who bought 11k in yes shares doing? 😂,hold,hold,True,True,1540.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T14:33:04.921000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Keep up the insults. Definitely making the YES side look good.,hold,flip,False,True,11052.5036,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:29:34.461000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Also thanks for clarifying the resolution criteria,flip,hold,False,True,2318.3211,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T17:05:44.639000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"That's an ambiguity for like 5 minutes. +Your other issues are what got you so amped up and I think they are clearly wro",increase,decrease,False,True,740.9106,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-23T23:01:28.676000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,If he streams the canvassing event and mrgirl drops his doc thats atleast 2 BIG streams im thinking we have a chance,decrease,increase,False,True,220.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T17:46:11.560000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"the arbitrary number emerged as a natural result of me not knowing how many reviews would come in, i can't predict the f",hold,decrease,False,True,15.7896,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T17:02:17.641000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Trading is heating up again, time for another volume prediction market:",increase,hold,False,True,15820.2749,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T18:28:44.183000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,There are 17 days left to the end of the month. The current sub count is 581k. Even if Destiny gains 1k a day (not happe,increase,increase,True,True,523.6494,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:48:24.622000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Hes literally still playing the fucking game and there are people telling me to resolve yes,decrease,increase,False,True,9823.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T18:28:49.883000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Easy W. we just need one banger video and we're golden.,flip,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T14:39:25.972000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Since there's been confusion behind trading on this market, l can share my reasoning for the YES. +No, i don't have insi",increase,decrease,False,True,2500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-19T07:04:55.143000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,LULW how did you get that much capital in the first place?,hold,hold,True,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:39:48.482000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"How come? The YES is satisfied by achieving the score, a NO would be satisfied if it had a lower than 90 score after 350",flip,hold,False,True,2033.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:44:41.573000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This is really about whether or not you read the description because I would say that the market question is vague but t,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T05:22:23.300000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Meh, forgot about the 10 people requirement. +https://openai.com/blog/governance-of-superintelligence",flip,decrease,False,True,63.2451,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T17:00:18.162000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,should have named it 598 k at least,increase,decrease,False,True,579.6134,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T06:19:28.448000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"""Jack Skellington created limit order for Ṁ320 NO at 49%"" +Very secure that 50% is coping right? If you think what I sa",hold,flip,False,True,265.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-31T14:29:47.131000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"This is going to be the new Shapiro interview market, can smell it from miles away.",increase,hold,False,True,1750.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-04T18:52:37.739000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""he listened to Chud reaction to roughly 50% of it"" This tells me I shouldn't take anything you say seriously. Bye.",hold,decrease,False,True,8914.7982,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T20:14:55.899000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"OH WOW, not like one better-than-average video can propel us to 600k!",flip,decrease,False,True,172.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:51:32.598000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Also if you really think I'm doing this because I have a no position I am willing to sell all my no shares to subsidize ,decrease,increase,False,True,9823.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T02:04:05.782000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","yes, but the descriptions are pretty restrictive.",decrease,decrease,True,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T17:32:58.289000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"True, he’ll probably be talking to him live tomorrow 💀💀 pretty sure the manifesto won’t get any airtime tho. He’s not di",increase,increase,True,True,13706.3573,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:26:55.884000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"You really have to set indisputable criteria, like “if factorio stops being his most played game on stream for more than",flip,decrease,False,True,356.1918,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-16T22:42:10.804000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I think you have read something incorrectly,increase,decrease,False,True,5941.5794,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T18:28:39.119000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Day +THREE + of sitting at 585k subs. Average for the last 30 days is under 1k subs per day. Will there even be a strea",increase,decrease,False,True,4319.5858,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-02T20:03:29.006000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He just said that he'd be putting off grinding for a little for the xqc drama,flip,decrease,False,True,10545.6531,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,decrease,False,True,8175.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-03T00:04:11.483000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"being that the market has not resolved yes yet, it likely will never resolve yes.",increase,increase,True,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:43:57.323000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,to be fair it always happens regardless of how many criterias you put. Humans only see and hear what they want. I've als,flip,decrease,False,True,3235.0774,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T10:26:20.341000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,can you hold my hand I'm scared 😭,hold,decrease,False,True,9419.5674,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T13:26:05.591000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Bet on whether Destiny will get at least 150 people to show up for the Georgia canvassing event. +https://manifold.marke",increase,hold,False,True,569.8943,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T21:53:04.072000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I actually only started using the site regularly after I saw I was in bronze and my gamer-brain activated.,decrease,hold,False,True,345.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T11:52:17.171000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Fully concur with this, this has been so much fun.",flip,hold,False,True,81.7353,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-11-22T19:42:22.578000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"destiny said on stream that he's definitely not gonna cover it. +https://youtu.be/LN6Unml5UH4 + at around 45min",flip,flip,True,True,3.3263,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T02:04:12.634000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"buy it, I am out. This shit will hit and I can't see this not happening. This is a lost battle. This video would need to",flip,flip,True,True,489.7852,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:05:47.931000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Fuck this shit the website took to much time to process my trade,flip,decrease,False,True,2037.0459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-22T19:02:36.192000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I can't I have a perfectly balanced amount of shares,increase,hold,False,True,9952.8831,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-16T01:20:23.087000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,At 310k with 15 days to go seems like a pretty damn good bet. Even if it doesn’t make it surely you’re EV+ at this price,flip,increase,False,True,290.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T19:57:40.437000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I disagree entirely. The chair-ness is the structural feature that leads to it being referred to that term, not an adjec",hold,hold,True,True,157.9171,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:58:04.749000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I wasn't using lots of people as an argument the problem is when creators make markets with unclear titles/descriptions ,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T13:29:08.335000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","at least it stopped swinging from 20% to 80%, and now stays in the 45% to 55% range...",decrease,hold,False,True,34.2332,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T16:22:27.058000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"This is only counting chairs and tables on Earth, right? Because in an infinite universe there are infinite of both",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-08T01:48:38.018000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Don't listen to him. He's just a schizo,hold,flip,False,True,561.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:31:08.362000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I agree it is preferable to update the description of the market, but the comment was perfectly inline with a reasonable",decrease,hold,False,True,19250.8945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-22T05:15:26.584000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"did he not get hella attention from destiny, darks community, and other streamers reacting to that piece?",hold,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:06:20.927000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Since he is still pursuing the secret ending of the mod pack, he hasn't finished it. If he hasn't finished the secret en",decrease,increase,False,True,416.8637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T19:38:55.920000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,I was under the assumption that we aren't rounding up but rather calculating the exact score. RIP Ṁ400 then I guess,increase,decrease,False,True,400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-26T15:07:59.668000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I'm excluding vods and shorts. I probably should've specified that, but it's basically over anyways",decrease,decrease,True,True,3268.2752,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T19:10:46.420000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Just 4 negative reviews, which apparently could just be one review in 4 publications, to flip back to 89%. I feel like, ",decrease,decrease,True,True,700.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-20T20:32:26.952000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",What am I missing that this is so high? We only have 11 days!,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T02:03:08.641000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","the resolution criteria here don't actually require the letter to be released by the future of life institute, right? It",decrease,decrease,True,True,519.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:16:48.670000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,you guys actually thought it was over PepeLaugh,decrease,increase,False,True,9239.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T06:42:31.324000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"i don't know if that was intentional but there's a great song by IU called that: + ending scene",hold,hold,True,True,8145.8616,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T18:30:04.977000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I'm not fucking selling. Diamond hands,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-03T06:23:29.291000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"he doesnt need to respond. the rules state ""or listen to"". im just saying if watching half and watching mr girl talk abo",increase,increase,True,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:43:42.399000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",They all remain /just/ vauge enough on whether it's all trolling or if they're pretending to be trolling and it's scared,decrease,decrease,True,True,345.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T09:42:40.890000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Nah no one's gonna buy anymore. Its time to sell and cut your losses.,increase,decrease,False,True,523.6494,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-18T04:41:38.184000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Destiny says he wont cover the article on todays stream +https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx6Y-hSjjby0-a3XAaR2mQKb3sCDLQl2Cn",hold,increase,False,True,800.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:21:50.151000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"and for any of you thinking he did not finish factorio, I'd bet all of my money that you lot of have played video games ",decrease,increase,False,True,9879.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T20:35:36.779000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This took more effort than Destiny ""reacting"" to Chud's stream yesterday.",hold,hold,True,True,10952.5036,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T19:14:06.263000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"And if every software instance of a HashTable is counted, not just every time the word ""HashTable"" or any of its analogs",increase,increase,True,True,131.5825,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-04T23:14:55.783000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Copy pasting my past responses to the ""omg look he spent hours sitting there in autopilot droning through Chud's stream""",hold,increase,False,True,8914.7982,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-28T05:11:47.109000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"https://old.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/185jwbj/the_thread_to_speculate_about_the_impending_drama/ + if you want to go",decrease,decrease,True,True,203.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-15T15:09:16.447000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,destiny just said he is submitting the paperwork on stream,decrease,increase,False,True,369.5426,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-07T19:12:29.128000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"He's still playing the game, why are people seething at OP? smh..",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-08T16:20:15.958000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I opened the rumble homepage last night and mrgirl was on the frontpage of rumble with 10k ish viewers,increase,increase,True,True,5.8331,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-20T12:21:25.312000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I remember back in November during the Mr Girl thing he would talk they would talk about previous streams and then those,increase,decrease,False,True,3578.6585,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T10:36:30.316000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,yes insulting him is obviously the best way to get him to do what you want. You're so smart.,flip,decrease,False,True,3235.0774,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T10:49:23.902000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He played factorio last stream more than any other game. Doesn’t seem like he’s finished?,decrease,hold,False,True,687.8724,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T07:41:44.834000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"What's gonna be the result, if they are saying ""splitting for an indefinite amount of time""?",flip,decrease,False,True,65000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:48:02.942000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","maybe + can just drop a manalink and we all can skip this arbitrage thing, that will be more efficient",flip,decrease,False,True,21140.4861,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:41:49.339000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,even if he was lying shouldn't you have waited until the market closes?,flip,decrease,False,True,2037.0459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-28T21:33:38.226000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Thank you to everyone here taking an L on this 🙏 This is pulling me out of a hole I made on a bad bet. I'm down bad rn f,hold,decrease,False,True,119.9514,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T01:30:43.321000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","then again Mira just ""buys more money"" when they run out so maybe they just have very deep pockets",hold,decrease,False,True,6980.5226,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:00:37.963000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Finishing a game means beating it. Destiny finished the game. Maybe he's not finished with the game but that is a differ,decrease,increase,False,True,143.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T20:00:01.578000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"The funny part is yesterday it actually said 600k by 2022-12-03, so it's getting longer YeeLaugh We stopped getting thes",hold,increase,False,True,461.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:58:04.785000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I feel like 99% of the confusion would be gone if I added the word playing after finish,hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T06:44:55.989000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","it's more like 5% of your portfolio. +I am not convinced this is your actual reason, but I enjoy second and triple guess",flip,decrease,False,True,1259.0051,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T18:48:42.891000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,This is why we are where we are. So many delusional people out there. Your diamond hands are cheap tinted glass.,decrease,increase,False,True,454.3762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-30T12:46:48.355000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,the time it's taking to resolve is definitely a valid reason to complain. I got alimony due,decrease,hold,False,True,750.2884,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:11:00.109000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"you could also be like + and just never resolve markets you aren't sure how to resolve",flip,decrease,False,True,3235.0774,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:24:32.331000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",humanity W >>> measly 10k loss in imaginary play money,hold,hold,True,True,10999.1415,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T00:16:40.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Genius. Careful observers will note that I, a signatory, am now an AI-generated figurehead:",decrease,hold,False,True,6564.8623,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..46089d5940e514981b957b764eaf16127ad5cb2f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.6649504811146281,0.7034086417467121,0.03845816063208407,UP,0.2461782715436235,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,15,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.759313094473087,0.7217835250782842,-0.037529569394802786,DOWN,0.24267729713160324,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,38,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.3773940381037791,0.7328874247177832,0.35549338661400415,UP,0.25244039061614715,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Are there more chairs than tables?,15,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.5922719615963448,0.7288097801867497,0.13653781859040492,UP,0.42268212465929794,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,16,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.14673089147169707,0.38710407390137364,0.24037318242967656,UP,0.48229381183685,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,15,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.9466701397613411,0.9894504046600535,0.04278026489871245,UP,0.3789547257972059,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,16,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.404641377849214,0.412775131369334,0.008133753520120024,UP,0.6931534866195981,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,28,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.4657643335627283,0.5922719615963448,0.12650762803361648,UP,0.25202144290035894,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,16,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.5153387936754763,0.39849757246344697,-0.11684122121202933,DOWN,0.41426886575325716,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,38,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.5976882288609869,0.554584628457253,-0.043103600403733955,DOWN,0.5720098526449254,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,38,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.7511158573901411,0.9332240026455834,0.18210814525544228,UP,0.7568206629744441,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,29,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.04612165392542358,0.0316967777989116,-0.014424876126511978,DOWN,0.7286430815783939,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,33,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..dd4e827cc9b70cf89d39fd6a77221712821972d2 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.3153441757017736,0.21707119454988227,-0.09827298115189131,DOWN,0.5,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,4,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.9397772099633951,0.9262306001865065,-0.013546609776888596,DOWN,0.7720395127175604,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.4023085561739562,0.6570511012934677,0.25474254511951144,UP,0.3566268678410314,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Are there more chairs than tables?,35,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.40481255306977154,0.7530237437403513,0.34821119067057976,UP,0.4204860196897955,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,29,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.856606929658913,0.9170016103675532,0.06039468070864018,UP,0.6653043797512849,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Are there more chairs than tables?,5,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.2874435419209483,0.3678992687172132,0.08045572679626489,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.33698320318321073,0.2526763221488964,-0.08430688103431433,DOWN,0.6848643664774106,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,6,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.607530945120086,0.641051658541593,0.033520713421506976,UP,0.4381860722839223,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.4916466775939361,0.6076515707527831,0.11600489315884699,UP,0.6005624768074019,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",71,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.3816338787943668,0.1827669670880673,-0.19886691170629947,DOWN,0.2757848032263788,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,110,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.7164072796116342,0.5542284144594992,-0.16217886515213498,DOWN,0.4693338716878936,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,219,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.7080867423518213,0.8020919096680647,0.09400516731624331,UP,0.887020259271558,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,13,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c01ebe98aba8835abc590fe26a82bd568505428b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,35 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-23T20:27:04.631000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"To which charges? All of them, or any of them?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:32:12.481000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Media certainly doesn't have a concensus and I can dig up many large media entities that discuss the events without usin,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-01T17:48:32.922000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Well when you put it like that it sounds like the market should be 50/50!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T17:40:59.994000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"the VR subreddit is full of rumours that a new device will be announced today, but that's true about once per week",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:24:29.826000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Just like to say, Gee whiz am i glad I managed to get out of this market. I bought +'s explanation, but when I looked i",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:53:41.972000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I've presented several in this market, and the ad hom is referring then calling me a troll, then refusing to engage with",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-02T09:56:38.546000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my NO shares, I'll take my 1% profits. Lots of rumors going around still.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:37:55.826000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"if neither side considers it a couple, reporting doesn't call it that at the end of the day, then it could easily go in ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-07-03T20:42:57.061000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"www.ajc.com +Plans underway for Jimmy Carter’s 100th birthday +Matt Kempner +6 - 7 minutes +The unthinkable is being tho",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T17:58:19.890000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,seemed more like a threat of coup to me,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-22T23:12:44.516000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I bought no at 15% and somehow managed to turn it around for profit. Been a hell of a market.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-14T02:31:20.550000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,It's a fever dream. Watch it from the beginning. It's an experience.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:57:00.125000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"It is a pretty thorough post so it's worth reading but the headline is +Most famously, former Vice-President and later S",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:29:15.576000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"no resolution completely makes sense if OP looks at the aggregate and says it's not a coup. +Media certainly doesn't hav",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-01T19:07:59.579000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I see, so you think it’s high probability within the next month",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T22:19:28.416000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"If anyone has a specific instance to share but is holding back because the incentives aren't high enough, I just added m",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T06:51:42.571000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I am sole judge. If it's called ""Half life"" and is widely regarded as a sequel to the events after Half life 2, I'll res",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T01:22:42.880000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"One person used my anonymous form to submit +this article + as being an attempt to convince people of white supremacy. ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T13:21:26.224000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I bought less NO based on this possible interpretation, but I still don't know what you mean(t). It's the only MW dictio",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T04:01:01.865000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my m5k shares before the spike, very clean exit",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-13T09:41:31.581000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Update 2025-05-01 (PST) +I assume that was supposed to be 2025-01-05 ?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:25:44.518000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I accidently bought $2K of YES when I meant to buy $2K of NO. So frustrated by the stupidity of the arguments being made,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T01:09:39.830000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Let this be a life lesson for you. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. I bet a lot on this market but I knew the,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T00:54:04.818000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I haven't finished reading through all the material posted yet, but I'm working on it. It looks like the only angle that",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..060ed6b60b6443755ea80acc9d8c4666f9941863 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,35 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-01T17:48:32.922000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Well when you put it like that it sounds like the market should be 50/50!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-07-03T20:42:57.061000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"www.ajc.com +Plans underway for Jimmy Carter’s 100th birthday +Matt Kempner +6 - 7 minutes +The unthinkable is being tho",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:53:41.972000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I've presented several in this market, and the ad hom is referring then calling me a troll, then refusing to engage with",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-02T09:56:38.546000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my NO shares, I'll take my 1% profits. Lots of rumors going around still.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-22T23:12:44.516000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I bought no at 15% and somehow managed to turn it around for profit. Been a hell of a market.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-23T20:27:04.631000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"To which charges? All of them, or any of them?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:37:55.826000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"if neither side considers it a couple, reporting doesn't call it that at the end of the day, then it could easily go in ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:32:12.481000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Media certainly doesn't have a concensus and I can dig up many large media entities that discuss the events without usin,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:24:29.826000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Just like to say, Gee whiz am i glad I managed to get out of this market. I bought +'s explanation, but when I looked i",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T22:19:28.416000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"If anyone has a specific instance to share but is holding back because the incentives aren't high enough, I just added m",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T17:40:59.994000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"the VR subreddit is full of rumours that a new device will be announced today, but that's true about once per week",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T01:22:42.880000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"One person used my anonymous form to submit +this article + as being an attempt to convince people of white supremacy. ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T13:21:26.224000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I bought less NO based on this possible interpretation, but I still don't know what you mean(t). It's the only MW dictio",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:29:15.576000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"no resolution completely makes sense if OP looks at the aggregate and says it's not a coup. +Media certainly doesn't hav",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T17:58:19.890000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,seemed more like a threat of coup to me,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:57:00.125000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"It is a pretty thorough post so it's worth reading but the headline is +Most famously, former Vice-President and later S",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-14T02:31:20.550000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,It's a fever dream. Watch it from the beginning. It's an experience.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T06:51:42.571000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I am sole judge. If it's called ""Half life"" and is widely regarded as a sequel to the events after Half life 2, I'll res",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-01T19:07:59.579000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I see, so you think it’s high probability within the next month",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T01:09:39.830000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Let this be a life lesson for you. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. I bet a lot on this market but I knew the,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-13T09:41:31.581000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Update 2025-05-01 (PST) +I assume that was supposed to be 2025-01-05 ?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T00:54:04.818000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I haven't finished reading through all the material posted yet, but I'm working on it. It looks like the only angle that",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T04:01:01.865000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my m5k shares before the spike, very clean exit",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:25:44.518000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I accidently bought $2K of YES when I meant to buy $2K of NO. So frustrated by the stupidity of the arguments being made,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..613d238137a77185a4cee812c294337ea5589f0c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,225 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:45:21.171000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"‘might’ was key, and I was truly unsure. Then I researched it more and updated my view. I shouldn’t have called you lazy",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,183.9738,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-21T18:23:51.086000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,this is pretty clearly not that far off IMO except they clearly kept looking at it internally and then deciding it wasn’,YES,NO,False,True,55.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:54:49.582000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,welp i cashed out. I didn't know this was one of those markets that just redefines something again. This would have been,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-25T00:30:36.337000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Like goddamn, how many news articles do I need to post that don't contain the keyword but describe the situation. Are th",NO,NO,True,True,60.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-01T11:51:51.934000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Where do you get 250 mana? is it region based? My interface gives 4 euro and change as smallest... For 500 mana, without",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T11:37:47.455000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,This is a good clarification that is consistent with the market text as I read it - please put this in the market descri,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1597.0313,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T08:00:38.555000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I had that discussion with KongoLandwalker. See below. +I'd define coup as an armed insurgency aimed to replace any high",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,8.4606,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-17T21:16:14.447000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"If it used the most power in training, does that make it the most powerful 🤔",NO,NO,True,True,2300.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:45:50.805000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I have already spent over M2000 on NO, and will probably wait for more news before piling on further. +The evidence that",NO,NO,True,True,3150.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T19:46:20.693000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. Where’s the dishonesty? I don’t see a personal benefit to clarifying the market ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,6650.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-16T21:49:32.930000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"We should launch a related question: Will SBF take the witness stand? +https://manifold.markets/TeddyWeverka/will-sbf",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,100.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T12:39:53.755000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,not sure it's worth it to respond to people who may not be writing in good faith,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T14:43:06.924000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"By reasoning models you should only count models with thinking time in their inference, which means in the contest you s",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,3800.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T21:03:03.042000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,It's always possible to find a way to interpret other people's actions as having pretty much whatever secret motive you ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T20:00:59.843000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I assume he would accept what his attorneys told him about the distribution of likely sentences on a guilty plea. I thin,YES,YES,True,True,60.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-14T17:53:02.756000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,What's the second circle got to do with anything?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2500.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-25T14:24:17.808000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,right now refers to the creation time of the market.,YES,YES,True,True,1597.0313,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-01T19:07:59.579000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I see, so you think it’s high probability within the next month",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-30T10:57:30.303000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,this peanut farmer every time i buy some more NO shares...,NO,NO,True,True,1496.3163,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:46:42.648000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,so what's sustaining this market above 60% at thiz point?,YES,NO,False,True,9544.998,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:32:52.473000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Multiple leakers seem to be backtracking. I'm switching to Nothing Ever Happens,NO,NO,True,True,298.3545,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T17:58:19.890000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,seemed more like a threat of coup to me,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-06T04:38:31.677000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,scott alexander clearly is somewhat sympathetic to neoreaction (as seen in the leaks and the reactionary faq) and explai,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-03-17T12:59:47.294000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I should probably give my model of their model: +Liberal elites are mostly white, and they gain their authority from edu",YES,NO,False,True,69.6886,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-25T20:23:19.844000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"it doesn’t need to top on every benchmark for this market to resolve YES, if that were the case there couldn’t be two di",YES,YES,True,True,2000.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T18:10:25.968000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"do you believe there is any way to engage with empirical claims like ""different races have different average IQs for par",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T00:09:05.833000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I expect the price to go up during morning work hours tomorrow, and then back down, hopefully past 50, if nothing happen",NO,NO,True,True,23846.7071,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-29T15:03:08.937000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,By definition data is “the spreadsheets”,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,76848.7759,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:12:50.275000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Yesterday Russians voted 44% it's all a play/fake coup. I start thinking they are right.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-24T16:22:47.229000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Is the cognitive dissonance starting to kick in?,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-13T09:40:11.219000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Would be nice to get new Half-Life,NO,NO,True,True,1.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T08:28:10.384000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,One could even say that Prigozhin fell out of of the Overton-window.,YES,NO,False,True,8.4606,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T18:03:07.044000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,This is not the first time world is having such discussions on self proclaimed white supremacist such like this!,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-01T17:48:32.922000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Well when you put it like that it sounds like the market should be 50/50!,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T00:10:19.430000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Well if that is true this is a shit criteria imo.,NO,NO,True,True,250.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-12T17:36:50.837000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Jimmy isn't like other hospice patients because he isn't currently facing any major health problems other than old age. ,YES,YES,True,True,23977.2421,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:51:01.356000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Here is a pretty thorough summary by a historian of american slavery +https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/h",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-23T14:36:07.446000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Take a look at the full quote silly billy!!! This is how people are looking at the spreadsheets, full of the spirit but ",NO,NO,True,True,64726.1841,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-24T21:50:42.285000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Claude 3.7 is the best non-reasoning model. This is Feb 24, 2025.",NO,NO,True,True,1000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-05T04:56:36.502000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"humor aside because I suck at humor sometimes, honestly, I think even at second removed, there's already a lot of opport",YES,NO,False,True,1.9657,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T21:22:24.437000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,this isn't a backtrack from McVicker,YES,NO,False,True,21313.2799,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-17T23:32:40.370000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,iT WILL HAPPEN. iT'S HAPPENING. iT'S GOING TO HAPPEN BEFORE DECEMBER 31ST 2025 AND HERE'S WHY YOU'RE ALL WRONG FOR DOUBT,YES,YES,True,True,5983.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-23T20:27:04.631000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"To which charges? All of them, or any of them?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-01T21:56:07.290000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Can you give us words of advice for creating a market like this. This one is brilliant!,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,324263.8318,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T22:08:29.694000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"You've provided a link to a post where Scott +compliments + an article written +against + racism. and says nothing abo",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:28:41.320000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,I think the other way would have worked if we had done it in Ṁ10k chunks to avoid the order being cancelled because of m,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:42:53.051000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I feel like you definitely agreed with me when you made this comment four days ago. Now you change your mind and start t,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1974.1073,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-25T21:11:30.742000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I think the spirit of the market is “is Elon Musk clearly bullshitting” more than anything else as evidenced by the fram,YES,NO,False,True,2000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T06:13:29.174000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"i.e. if you want to count it as better due to the final output being better, you cannot classify them in the same way. Z",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-14T02:02:58.129000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,that's not true. He has terminal melanoma.,NO,NO,True,True,379.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-25T15:19:48.860000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"This is clearly ridiculous after many months. His expected lifespan now probably is, in fact, approximately the actuaria",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-27T22:29:25.091000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,If Scott Alexander has tried to convince people that white people are much more intelligent than black people simply bec,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T19:01:32.662000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"np, i agree it’s confusing but non obvious to propose a strictly better alternative UI",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,28450.0149,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:21:25.368000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I'm pretty confident this market will resolve correctly. Gigacasting already clarified.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T17:00:21.009000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"None of those are sources or arguments. +I read your other comments, and they come down to: Wikipedia's title doesn't in",YES,YES,True,True,633.4045,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T23:36:28.244000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Now imagine the shape if he dies one day before his birthday.,NO,NO,True,True,2109.5549,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T18:28:58.788000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I think Trump is pretty transparent. I think ""stand back and stand by"" doesn't require a lot of unpacking. If anything p",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-06T19:51:56.507000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,People in hospice have much shorter life expectancies than people of the same age who are not in hospice.,NO,NO,True,True,13916.8398,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:42:01.041000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,But it was also just a coup attempt by the definition set in this market AND if they actually intended to dispose of Sho,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T01:26:43.425000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"so what would you consider proof that scott alexander tried to convince someone of something, if scott Alexander tweeted",YES,NO,False,True,30.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T03:15:48.603000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,We need a coup to overthrow the market creator! ;),YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,7830.7591,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-14T16:37:22.696000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"It's not nonsense. By this stage, given the progression described and typical end-of-life signs, survival beyond this po",NO,NO,True,True,679.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-20T00:30:38.144000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,you buying no has just made me feel extremely woozy,NO,NO,True,True,2048.8152,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-07-02T18:46:32.789000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"====== Abstract / Tl;dr ====== +The criteria stated that an early resolution would require widespread media consensus wi",YES,YES,True,True,8.4606,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T14:59:28.252000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Ok I'm back, Prigozhin just published a new audio message confirming that the mutiny concerned the plans to dissolve Wag",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T17:24:28.471000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,tbh I wonder if that was the plan but then they got disrupted by the incompetence with the tariffs,YES,NO,False,True,10.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:06:54.256000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I am going to go fully insane if this is being counted as a coup while the big news of the evening are that a coup did i,NO,NO,True,True,600.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:04:20.625000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"So are we going by today or by whether he takes a plea deal or...? I forecasted based on what he would do today, but per",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,150.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-14T04:44:55.254000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,buying on theta. Unless slight bad news continuously trickles in this shouldn't be a flat line at 50%. It should be c,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-05T10:08:36.327000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"@jacksonpolack + well if everyone had their own nuclear reactor it might be bad if people weren't up to the task of usin",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.9657,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:12:34.757000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Obviously it was a coup attempt. It doesn't matter what Prigozhin says now, of course he says ""it was not a coup"" after ",YES,YES,True,True,280.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-05T22:16:53.150000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"it will be my subjective take on 'is this plausibly the best LLM I can access right now +Seems like reasoning models don",YES,NO,False,True,6553.0506,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T14:27:14.005000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"news is not public yet, will comment when it's announced.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,54791.2418,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T22:05:41.328000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I am younger than Half-Life 2 and I'll be able to legally drink next week. It has been a +long + time.",YES,NO,False,True,20703.6388,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-08T22:19:43.663000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"https://youtu.be/T3pD8H45NoE?si=1oQyBCQARrXv4Tbx +A short wonder interview with President Carter’s grandson, Jason on pl",YES,YES,True,True,112.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T06:05:54.116000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I don’t know. Depends what the government deal recommends. He has a tough judge I think.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,323.8475,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:29:15.576000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"no resolution completely makes sense if OP looks at the aggregate and says it's not a coup. +Media certainly doesn't hav",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T00:53:12.075000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Question -- would someone who is in favor of, say, exclusionary zoning, which was explicitly used with the specific inte",NO,NO,True,True,280.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-27T17:39:00.678000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Putin calls Wagner mutiny ""treason"" in televised address - YouTube +im slowly reading through the comments, but you aske",YES,YES,True,True,15.4917,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:50:18.685000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Like when I Google Russia the news stories call it a myriad of different things. Coup isn't unanimous atm.,NO,NO,True,True,60.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T11:33:16.943000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Because I am not in charge of resolving this market anymore and VERY HAPPY about this.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T04:04:24.752000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,I still believe. 5k at 25 limit up,YES,YES,True,True,15639.1078,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2024-07-23T21:21:40.431000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Leading Llm Arena or leasing in 8/10 commonly used benchmarks would be a less judgment based criterium,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T17:18:37.934000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,I have like 25% of my net worth in this so my price has unfortunately gone up,NO,NO,True,True,39266.3926,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T02:56:51.610000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,A relevant question for arb and specificity about the announcement:,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2722.5161,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T17:52:56.140000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"https://t.me/intelslava/49337 +New Prigozhin voice message - ""We came within 200km of Moscow without shedding a drop of ",YES,NO,False,True,8.4606,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T01:22:42.880000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"One person used my anonymous form to submit +this article + as being an attempt to convince people of white supremacy. ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T12:20:53.051000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"🎂🎂 What a ride, way to go Jimmy! 🎂🎂",YES,YES,True,True,2430.6167,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-25T03:50:30.277000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"https://youtu.be/MMYsEJ-vZaQ?si=K1nnUnVgRf36qisS + this kid is probably going to college",YES,NO,False,True,17.61,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-05T22:03:04.035000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,so how does this resolve if grok3 is a reasoning model.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:04:40.352000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,What do you think I meant by 'welp I cashed out?'. Do you think I am going to just lose everything because you guys chan,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T07:28:37.724000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"they claim to have taken control over Rostov-on-Don: +https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/wagner-chief-claims-",YES,YES,True,True,8.4606,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:58:06.947000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,The website literally refers to it as a coup and you are buying NO?,YES,YES,True,True,3500.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-02T22:47:30.358000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Hm gonna say this is total BS. Physics were the big gimmick of HL2 because that was then a cutting-edge thing you could ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-08-18T21:59:07.819000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,wow you two have been putting every cent you have into this market for months 😂,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,73.0774,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-07T01:48:25.890000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Unless you think the risk of dying goes down with age for people in hospice, that shouldn't matter. The fact is that peo",NO,NO,True,True,13936.8398,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:17:22.082000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,That is not going to happen here. The prosecutors are never going to offer him a deal.,NO,NO,True,True,2123.8475,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-16T15:56:13.805000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Does this have to be at the trial or can he plead guilty before then?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,6081.9577,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T02:34:46.172000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,There is no way it's better enough for a normal person to notice any difference,NO,NO,True,True,7820.2898,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T20:15:49.192000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"That was a typo on my end, I meant to say concurrent sentences are a thing. Madoff was so old that his sentence was life",NO,YES,False,True,323.8475,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T00:54:04.818000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I haven't finished reading through all the material posted yet, but I'm working on it. It looks like the only angle that",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-04T22:28:43.692000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"because he is either a neoreactionary, or a neoreactionary collaborator, or a second-order collaborator, that means he'",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-06T04:01:05.325000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,dont u think its interesting that white supremacists point to the writings of scott alexander? surely it updates ur beye,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-06T15:41:38.719000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Why is this not resolved to yes +https://wavespeed.ai/blog/posts/claude-sonnet-5-everything-we-know-about-anthropics-fen",YES,YES,True,True,1170.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T00:02:00.466000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Sounds like you should bet against +https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/will-anthropics-next-sonnet-model-e",NO,NO,True,True,30.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:01:23.831000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Wikipedia is calling it a rebellion: +https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T02:55:21.808000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I'd define a coup as the attempt to replace Putin. Anything short of this, including say giving the Wagner forces contr",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T20:23:48.305000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I don't think you understand what ""white supremacy"" is.",NO,NO,True,True,100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T20:00:15.370000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I don't think it makes sense to announce it in December if it launches with the Steam Machine. They could wait until nex,NO,NO,True,True,100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-07-24T02:05:42.637000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Which Manifold NO bettor created that document?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1518.1944,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T01:50:17.791000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"specifically for the sake of argument, let's say it was proven that a person made a persuasive claim and someone else he",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,30.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-25T21:05:01.276000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"if reasoning models don't count then Grok3 also doesn't count. As for the rest of the description, you have a good point",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-25T19:07:04.876000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Question about specific reason for NO.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2024-09-05T22:36:48.452000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I tend to distrust Elon Musk's predictions, by default. His ever-changing timeline for self-driving cars betrays both a",NO,NO,True,True,500.5229,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T14:02:32.456000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,My belief about whether an instance has been provided is different depending on whether it has been provided.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-07T14:40:41.595000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"also 3 of the 4 FTX core conspirators pled guilty, which seems like a reasonable reference class. +FWIW my NO thesis wa",NO,NO,True,True,2755.0991,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-13T09:41:31.581000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Update 2025-05-01 (PST) +I assume that was supposed to be 2025-01-05 ?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T22:00:53.734000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"While I agree with you, the people on this market are going to tell you, like they told me, that you are stupid for thin",NO,NO,True,True,1974.1073,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-13T18:03:29.472000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Thank you Jimmy, only a few days to go. Keep inspiring all of us.",YES,YES,True,True,56200.8885,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-20T15:02:33.063000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Jimmy Carter once again reflecting the true discount rate on manifold. He's the us government bond equivalent for your m,YES,NO,False,True,13643.7026,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:43:05.131000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"If I believe that some people are taller than others, and that tall people are better at many jobs than short people, do",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T15:28:36.716000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"no we're conducting an experiment on what % of manifold users actually look for evidence vs just bet on vibes. Congrats,",YES,NO,False,True,9544.998,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-17T22:26:56.169000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,We'll see. I've seen claims this itself is a reasoning model and honestly I am SO SO GLAD I will not have to decide how ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T23:29:17.713000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,that’s all I want at 60% but I put 5k up at 40% valid for an hour if you want it.,YES,YES,True,True,5050.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T08:27:24.592000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Until a few weeks ago I didn't know about a fact of Russian politic rhetoric called ""Good Tsar, Bad Boyars"". Essentially",YES,YES,True,True,8.4606,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-29T20:14:48.155000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,You have gone the full goblin mode and I am too sorry for you.,NO,NO,True,True,61748.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T00:59:24.416000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I'd go even further - someone who thinks smart people are ""deserving of better treatment"" than less intelligent people f",NO,NO,True,True,182.5146,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T14:18:44.507000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"dozen plus Russian soldiers died, too. +✓ insurgency +✓ armed +✓ with the goal to replace a higher official +I am genuin",YES,YES,True,True,61.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:24:54.090000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,If you’re too lazy to research how this all works then you don’t get to claim authority over how this market should reso,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,133.9738,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:56:47.003000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I agree he could offer more clarity. Without that it can resolve how they assess it. People don't always agree,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,60.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T17:51:19.817000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,Me and walmart doubling our networths while betting against Bayesian,NO,NO,True,True,56758.2266,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:53:18.901000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Obviously I don't think you're a ""tall supremacist"" if you believe that tall people are better at basketball than short ",NO,NO,True,True,10.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T08:22:08.406000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"The reason I ask is because this market has nothing to do with fascism, and I'm confused how it has any relevance to the",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-07T22:25:44.575000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I do think both interpretations are reasonable, and I could argue both sides. I understand both cases, although I would ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-14T23:36:26.444000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,BROOOO lmfao i did not mean to entirely close my position 😭😭😭 i saw a tweet but had to take care of my dogs so i gave my,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,116.8136,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T15:17:04.980000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,rumors piling up this morning -,YES,YES,True,True,619.5919,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:03:49.929000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Even if you're right, pleading guilty get him behind bars quicker +not pleading guilty --> ""house arrest"" in luxury for",YES,YES,True,True,79.1095,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T12:33:19.411000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,There is no epistemic difference between providing an instance and providing evidence of an instance. Anything observed ,YES,YES,True,True,40.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T23:35:25.363000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I’m usually happy to bet against a rumor on the rumor site. When Bayesian is the one to fill it, and almost three orders",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T06:51:42.571000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I am sole judge. If it's called ""Half life"" and is widely regarded as a sequel to the events after Half life 2, I'll res",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T16:43:29.540000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Yes, there's a lot of rumors about something today.",YES,YES,True,True,50.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T17:46:06.545000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Have I done something of you to be deserving the hate and vitriols you are spittling in my way? Maybe you can taking the,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,76623.8034,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T19:12:54.908000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Just to point out obvious: reasoning models are NOT any different than all other LLMs. +They are literally the same mod",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-06T04:57:42.129000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,what is the correct proportion or amount of white supremacists reading a blog before you would agree the blog is a work ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-08-04T14:26:29.483000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I think the previous profile pic is better? Thank you.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T18:04:01.276000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,Where in the linked article does he openly support eugenics or white supremacy? It seems to me like he is applauding a g,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:39:49.689000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I have now learned that the word I am looking for is insurrection,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,600.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T21:07:24.499000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,I feel like you're misunderstanding the prompt. Finkelstein is not arguing that Scott Alexander is currently a white sup,YES,YES,True,True,8.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T17:55:55.598000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,Thanks for answering. The reason I specifically picked people in favor of exclusionary zoning is that a large segment of,NO,NO,True,True,280.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T03:22:39.990000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Something always happens. I'm (almost) all in,YES,YES,True,True,1050.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2024-07-23T20:52:14.608000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"""according to my best judgment"" +This is a conflict of interest +""IMO"" +This is anecdotal +This is a prediction of what ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-19T06:20:34.537000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Correct. The longer he goes without major health issues appearing, the more the correct estimate should converge to a st",YES,NO,False,True,1030.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T01:49:46.421000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"uh if it's released sunday in the US, resolves N/A due to resolution ambiguity. saturday is this week. next monday is ne",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,49886.5496,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T04:15:28.306000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"https://www.wrdw.com/2024/05/10/age-99-jimmy-carter-is-still-exercising-his-right-vote/ +The guy on his deathbed just vo",NO,NO,True,True,250.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:36:57.289000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"we haven't been over 50% in a month. But yeah, I'm like you. I initially thought SBF had enough sense to strike a deal, ",YES,NO,False,True,2215.3972,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:14:03.247000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,. I often get the feeling that we spend much energy on quabbeling about the boundaries of nebulous concepts. I think wh,YES,YES,True,True,40.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-06-16T01:47:30.786000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Every bet for yes, jimmy carter gets a little bit stronger.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T17:40:59.994000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"the VR subreddit is full of rumours that a new device will be announced today, but that's true about once per week",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T20:53:58.153000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"But why would Russian officials start destroying roads +https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1672607862994923520 + and ",YES,NO,False,True,4625.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-15T04:13:18.511000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Social security actuarial table alone gives him (1-0.3416)^(109/365) = 0.88 chance of survival. The average hospice sta,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-31T00:46:03.764000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Resolution criteria are unclear. He could plead guilty at a future point in time. Indeed I think that's likely, but I'm ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:48:33.706000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Here is a video of surovikin. +Translation by Dmitri @wartranslated +""I have just returned by the order of the Ministr",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T00:43:37.256000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I think the key takeaway here is, the individual-and-community-philosophy vs individual-only-philosophy understandings o",YES,YES,True,True,1.9657,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T14:38:12.259000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Instead of providing an answer to your very reasonable question, I would like to point out that this conversation makes ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-14T02:31:20.550000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,It's a fever dream. Watch it from the beginning. It's an experience.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T03:24:43.116000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hmmm... now this is interesting +https://x.com/littmath/status/2018137644723482981?s=20",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T20:40:47.436000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,It's increasingly clear that most of the people in this market don't necessarily disagree on any object level facts rega,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,182.5146,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T23:50:27.751000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,It will probably beat the 80.9% score by getting 81.0%,NO,YES,False,True,10.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T16:26:10.647000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"He is healthy enough, physically and mentally, to want to attend a funeral and be able to attend a funeral. Who knows...",NO,NO,True,True,468.4459,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-06T17:46:33.088000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I'm becoming a ""Sonnet 5 is Opus 4.6"" truther.",NO,NO,True,True,499.63,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T13:02:26.941000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,While we can argue about whether trying to explain the thought process behind some people not hiring black people in a p,NO,NO,True,True,10.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:53:41.972000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I've presented several in this market, and the ad hom is referring then calling me a troll, then refusing to engage with",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:26:35.004000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"when you or someone else buys $1k at a time and send the price from 60% to 20%, an then other people buy it back up from",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T03:57:31.167000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"""I often get the feeling that we spend much energy on quabbeling about the boundaries of nebulous concepts. I think what",YES,YES,True,True,85.8479,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T16:25:01.807000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,People care more about their own children than someone else’s child too. So I don’t get your point?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,20.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T17:37:47.819000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I sort of regret betting in this market since it feels icky and disrespectful. No matter when Mr Carter passes I wish fo,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,200.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-03T01:32:52.510000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Plenty of time to buy YES later when it becomes even more likely.,YES,YES,True,True,930.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-26T23:40:55.712000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Why would he be in hospice without any health issues and how do you know he doesn't have any health issues?,NO,NO,True,True,7484.4365,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-27T22:30:12.949000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,When did he argue that more intelligent people should be treated better than less intelligent people?,NO,NO,True,True,50.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ce013b60d6e7e9f3d3e9ade4f816e1fb7e0ff149 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,126 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-25T20:32:02.218000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"“Has to be at least as strong” +“GPT-4o would also resolve to YES based on its position at #1 on Arena and other ways in",hold,decrease,False,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:00:34.805000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"so this is what started it all. Russians alledegdly bombarded a camp of Wagner PMC. +https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/statu",decrease,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T12:43:17.297000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Good reporting here: +‘Sam? Are you there?!’ The bizarre and brutal final hours of FTX (FT) +I still think this market ",decrease,hold,False,True,1524.9267,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:20:14.099000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"likely to crater if morning on the West Coast passes with no release. +I'll bet against this, anyone down?",increase,flip,False,True,46107.6938,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T20:23:48.305000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I don't think you understand what ""white supremacy"" is.",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T08:10:42.903000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,but that is not what scott believes...,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:31:56.546000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"The market should stay open until either SBF pleads guilty to something, or he dies of old age! +Okay, I don't really be",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-24T19:50:52.333000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I think only the models that were available at the time Grok 3 was released should count.,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:27:24.929000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,the Orange Box was up there with Halo 2 as the greatest video game releases in history. Surely you’ve heard the lore,flip,hold,False,True,114.1025,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T04:01:01.865000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my m5k shares before the spike, very clean exit",flip,hold,False,True,28.5787,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T04:02:09.389000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Something to keep in mind as odds vary wildly based on barely any evidence: +Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer",flip,decrease,False,True,123.9793,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:48:48.220000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"on current event pages like this, Wikipedia is overrun with eager teenagers who describe everything in the most over-hyp",increase,hold,False,True,2550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:43:54.995000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I mean that is a series of links. If I come ack with a bunch does that mean it isn't,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-07T01:48:25.890000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Unless you think the risk of dying goes down with age for people in hospice, that shouldn't matter. The fact is that peo",increase,increase,True,True,13936.8398,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-05T04:56:36.502000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"humor aside because I suck at humor sometimes, honestly, I think even at second removed, there's already a lot of opport",hold,decrease,False,True,1.9657,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-05T01:35:32.311000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I'm happy that people have finally come around to my mindset, which is that SBF thinks he's smarter than everyone else a",flip,decrease,False,True,968.4027,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:50:48.454000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"is that the official story is preposterous +preposterous things happen sometimes, how plausible was chatgpt? +Prigozhin ",hold,decrease,False,True,633.4045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-27T19:50:38.825000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,He's already a centenarian... he would >50% survive if born prematurely 100 years ago,hold,flip,False,True,80.0977,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T18:17:25.023000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because that’s in his interest if he wants any chance of not spending the rest of his life behind bars?,flip,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T01:04:19.296000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"The market creator defines a coup differently: +I'd define coup as an armed insurgency aimed to replace any higher offic",increase,hold,False,True,3800.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:10:03.424000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,They put up checkpoints all around Moscow Oblast. Just because they averted a widespread clash between mercs and gov't f,decrease,increase,False,True,310.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T00:55:58.463000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy Carter the 39th President of the United States from 1977-1981 will be 100 years young in just a few hours, our fir",hold,increase,False,True,112.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T13:01:13.192000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"this. Plus even if he hadn't, the market description says ""coup against the russian ministry of defense."" so it's reason",increase,hold,False,True,1597.0313,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:01:28.336000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Lol, good job making a profit by spreading nonsense that you yourself don't believe in.",increase,decrease,False,True,3600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:42:03.470000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I think most readers are biased as they invested in ""yes"" when things very much looked like a coup. The sudden resolutio",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-06T07:22:04.183000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Counterpoint: normal people (average Superbowl viewers) don't know what Sonnet is, and definitely don't care about the d",flip,increase,False,True,7020.2898,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:27:28.430000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Wikipedia doesn't ""decide"" this type of thing. They don't have time-machines, US security clearances, or any way of kno",increase,hold,False,True,2200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T19:01:32.662000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"np, i agree it’s confusing but non obvious to propose a strictly better alternative UI",hold,hold,True,True,28450.0149,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:26:23.076000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,True. But as a good classical utilitarian he should be good at intertemporal substitution and prefer fewer years behind ,flip,decrease,False,True,103.9002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:37:55.826000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"if neither side considers it a couple, reporting doesn't call it that at the end of the day, then it could easily go in ",decrease,increase,False,True,41.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T11:05:16.570000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Kinda arb, but not really the same question:",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T10:47:23.499000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,another brilliant game of ‘twitter vagueposts: anonymous leaks or spontaneous mass delusion’,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-03-13T23:31:42.049000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"https://wgrv.com/2024/03/13/former-judge-jimmy-carter-dies/ +https://www.dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/tallahassee-fl/j",increase,decrease,False,True,4078.6758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-02T17:47:17.372000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Making major moves is the name of my game. It is rude for you to be even asking me!!!,hold,increase,False,True,65522.8034,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T09:25:48.250000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,why does this market have such low liquidity,flip,hold,False,True,219.8807,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T21:17:06.826000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I've felt it's pretty likely for days, was just trying to get a better price but was struggling to get orders filled",decrease,decrease,True,True,20703.6388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:09:16.312000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"putin doing a televised response addressing it, taking it seriously. Putin also thought it was a coup",decrease,increase,False,True,11.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T20:43:54.118000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"I am sorry that you lost a lot of mana here, but calling for n/a is getting annoying.",increase,decrease,False,True,16983.7682,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T20:10:22.678000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,What do you mean they’re not a thing? They definitely happen. Madoff was sentenced to 150 years. I don’t know what the o,flip,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:46:28.787000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,You're free to point me to any argument that doesn't rely on the word coup's definition. There isn't any. The media cons,increase,hold,False,True,4300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T17:00:04.478000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,it was funny the first time but the pings are a little excessive,increase,hold,False,True,101.6602,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T00:01:41.351000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"ok, u get the bayesian price... this time",flip,hold,False,True,23696.7071,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-20T11:58:24.828000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I think the question here is the base rate of high profile cases, right?",hold,hold,True,True,10726.7869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T00:31:20.675000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,oh i misread i wanna buy more NO,increase,flip,False,True,36112.6223,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:23:18.454000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"oh this is being solved by media? which sources doo u want? also, is it just a consensus on what term is being thrown ar",flip,decrease,False,True,15.4917,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T20:59:26.793000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,Was thinking 1:1 odds because it would be a schelling point.,hold,decrease,False,True,69.6886,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T03:24:59.282000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"It wasn't an armed insurgency except for the multiple aircrafts they destroyed, 15+ Russian soldiers they killed and too",increase,increase,True,True,4300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:43:16.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,This question was consistently above 50% while Putin to say in power never dropped below 70. Which suggests that the vas,decrease,decrease,True,True,310.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:33:51.434000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,at this point I think we're at an impasse and if you really feel you've been indisputably wronged here I recommend block,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",flip,decrease,False,True,7830.7591,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-02T09:56:38.546000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my NO shares, I'll take my 1% profits. Lots of rumors going around still.",flip,decrease,False,True,28.5787,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:13:02.934000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Some of y'all are featured here :-P +https://news.manifold.markets/p/forecasting-claude-leaks",flip,hold,False,True,103.9064,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T22:41:53.228000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-a-new-claude-opus-model-be-rel?r=QmVuQXliYXI + +I have a limit up at 40% on yes ",increase,increase,True,True,2990.306,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T18:02:35.456000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"It's real this time. They just dropped this + a bunch of other hardware. +https://store.steampowered.com/sale/steamfram",flip,flip,True,True,250.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T17:37:47.819000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I sort of regret betting in this market since it feels icky and disrespectful. No matter when Mr Carter passes I wish fo,hold,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-12-07T05:34:14.440000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Eyeballing it from actuarial tables ( +https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html +), seems about ~35% he dies in a ye",flip,decrease,False,True,35.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:15:35.329000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"not a coup according to the expert +https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672689832462614529?cxt=HHwWgoC8tcqiy7YuAAAA",decrease,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:04:31.219000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,they bought superbowl ad spaces. wouldnt make much sense to not have sonnet 5 deployed for the new users.,increase,increase,True,True,1476.86,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-01T17:58:06.645000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,The bet is cancelled. Someone who is more comfortable with negotiating betting terms might want to take over and try to ,hold,hold,True,True,69.6886,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:04:52.244000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I meant like the other side like I wanted you to put a yes limit but if you don’t feel comfortable, that’s fine",decrease,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:03:29.920000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,part of the fun of it tbh. a little conflict of interest to navigate,hold,decrease,False,True,5441.2943,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:04:20.625000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"So are we going by today or by whether he takes a plea deal or...? I forecasted based on what he would do today, but per",decrease,decrease,True,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T18:23:55.613000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Just because his business partners are going to testify against him doesn't mean he won't be able to make them appear mo,increase,increase,True,True,323.8475,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-13T21:13:27.640000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"well, they did explicitly say in the hardware video that Steam Deck itself was going to have more specific announcements",decrease,hold,False,True,599.9661,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T15:40:17.573000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"a year of low volume and middling odds, to 2%, to the mid-high 90s has to be one of the craziest swings here like the bi",decrease,decrease,True,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T19:30:53.691000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"We come together to honor the life and legacy of a truly remarkable individual, Jimmy Carter. A man whose unwavering ded",increase,decrease,False,True,544.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T00:23:40.281000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"lmk if other ppl want to offload YES shares or buy more NO, I can probably find a good price",decrease,hold,False,True,6165.3593,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:52.114000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,So you are saying the more logical interpretation is that this market should stay open until trial is over?!?! That is n,decrease,hold,False,True,4276.3927,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-08-22T13:33:01.946000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Don't count your chickens before they hatch. No way he makes it another year.,hold,increase,False,True,544.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T19:51:46.715000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"The intention is that you click on the number next to ""Max YES Payout"" and enter the amount of shares you wish to purcha",hold,hold,True,True,0.2679,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:51:01.356000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Here is a pretty thorough summary by a historian of american slavery +https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/h",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T05:32:29.814000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I don’t dispute the lmsys scores are impressive, but it was my understanding reasoning models wouldn’t be included. Was ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-25T00:01:58.075000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,The thing is there was no ambiguity and the market hovered at 98% for a few hours. By delaying an obvious resolution eve,increase,decrease,False,True,3600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-29T20:14:48.155000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,You have gone the full goblin mode and I am too sorry for you.,hold,decrease,False,True,61748.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:14:03.247000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,. I often get the feeling that we spend much energy on quabbeling about the boundaries of nebulous concepts. I think wh,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:39:44.847000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I am willing to sell at 50%. If you want to buy from me, you have to take it in 5k spurts, otherwise the orders would ge",hold,decrease,False,True,48050.9222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T14:33:34.841000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,But he did eventually wear down and accept the conventional legal answer. I think he's likely too much of a utilitarian ,increase,increase,True,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:13:56.658000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,surely the probability should drop if there's nothing today. Anthropic 90% of the time releases between Mon-Wed.,hold,increase,False,True,48050.9222,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T18:43:41.497000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Why are people willing to bet so much on this question, is it just interesting or is there some other aspect like it wil",decrease,hold,False,True,0.2679,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-27T22:30:12.949000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,When did he argue that more intelligent people should be treated better than less intelligent people?,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-28T06:39:07.116000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"here's a derivative market, have fun",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-12T19:20:18.133000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He'll be offered one—though we may never know about it—but he seems increasingly intent on not taking one. I predict thi,increase,decrease,False,True,133.9002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T20:38:02.232000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Also, I suppose, now the insiders have an incentive to pump the expectation thanks to prediction markets, contrary to pr",increase,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:27:52.303000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,There is no singular guilty/not guilty plea. Imagine if there was some bombshell testimony at trial and the best strateg,flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T22:05:41.328000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I am younger than Half-Life 2 and I'll be able to legally drink next week. It has been a +long + time.",decrease,decrease,True,True,20703.6388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-19T17:53:11.049000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Will he play video games while testifying in his own defense? https://manifold.markets/TeddyWeverka/will-sbf-be-playing,flip,hold,False,True,15.2605,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T01:22:30.133000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Mostly because I hadn’t read the news articles carefully enough and so failed to realize it was about the arraignment. I,flip,hold,False,True,103.9002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:10:03.764000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,im not disagreeing. i agree. its sorted out and wikipedia has decided it is officially not a coup.,flip,flip,True,True,15.4917,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T17:29:09.352000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Sorry, if I post 10 links does that make your arguement stronger or weaker. There is a reason I'm not playing this never",hold,decrease,False,True,633.4045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-09T22:47:29.592000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"https://chatgpt.com/share/1be4b80a-c44d-4c75-bd16-665826718bed +You see, +I kinda agree +With ChatGPT",hold,hold,True,True,8234.6197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:06:54.256000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I am going to go fully insane if this is being counted as a coup while the big news of the evening are that a coup did i,decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-17T23:32:40.370000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,iT WILL HAPPEN. iT'S HAPPENING. iT'S GOING TO HAPPEN BEFORE DECEMBER 31ST 2025 AND HERE'S WHY YOU'RE ALL WRONG FOR DOUBT,hold,increase,False,True,5983.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T21:04:27.064000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,That's right we should consider which possible worlds are more probable given what we've observed.,hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T19:13:50.494000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"it is unfathomable to describe any form of progress to half life 3, valve doing something ""quickly""",flip,increase,False,True,0.7287,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:33:14.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,there was an attempted coup which failed,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:37:04.603000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Even that is based on assumptions. According to both sides that's not the case. The only reason people think this was a ,decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T19:49:05.039000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"That’s the arraignment plea, he will still probably be offered a deal later on. It’s not unusual for defendants to plead",flip,hold,False,True,103.9002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-29T06:00:09.693000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"MoD's future is uncertain but there haven't been any changes yet. +For this market, yes.",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-20T00:30:38.144000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,you buying no has just made me feel extremely woozy,decrease,decrease,True,True,2048.8152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0568d23321abb0698b1a9d9ca3fca5a3e35cead3 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,64 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-20T11:58:24.828000+00:00,"I think the question here is the base rate of high profile cases, right?",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-29T20:14:48.155000+00:00,You have gone the full goblin mode and I am too sorry for you.,hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:50:48.454000+00:00,"is that the official story is preposterous +preposterous things happen sometimes, how plausible was chatgpt? +Prigozhin ",hold,hold,True +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-01T17:58:06.645000+00:00,The bet is cancelled. Someone who is more comfortable with negotiating betting terms might want to take over and try to ,hold,decrease,False +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-27T22:30:12.949000+00:00,When did he argue that more intelligent people should be treated better than less intelligent people?,decrease,hold,False +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-24T19:50:52.333000+00:00,I think only the models that were available at the time Grok 3 was released should count.,hold,hold,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:39:44.847000+00:00,"I am willing to sell at 50%. If you want to buy from me, you have to take it in 5k spurts, otherwise the orders would ge",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T15:40:17.573000+00:00,"a year of low volume and middling odds, to 2%, to the mid-high 90s has to be one of the craziest swings here like the bi",decrease,decrease,True +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T21:04:27.064000+00:00,That's right we should consider which possible worlds are more probable given what we've observed.,hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:42:03.470000+00:00,"I think most readers are biased as they invested in ""yes"" when things very much looked like a coup. The sudden resolutio",decrease,hold,False +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T05:32:29.814000+00:00,"I don’t dispute the lmsys scores are impressive, but it was my understanding reasoning models wouldn’t be included. Was ",decrease,hold,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:43:16.465000+00:00,This question was consistently above 50% while Putin to say in power never dropped below 70. Which suggests that the vas,decrease,decrease,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:04:20.625000+00:00,"So are we going by today or by whether he takes a plea deal or...? I forecasted based on what he would do today, but per",decrease,decrease,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-09T22:47:29.592000+00:00,"https://chatgpt.com/share/1be4b80a-c44d-4c75-bd16-665826718bed +You see, +I kinda agree +With ChatGPT",hold,decrease,False +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:04:52.244000+00:00,"I meant like the other side like I wanted you to put a yes limit but if you don’t feel comfortable, that’s fine",decrease,decrease,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T17:29:09.352000+00:00,"Sorry, if I post 10 links does that make your arguement stronger or weaker. There is a reason I'm not playing this never",hold,decrease,False +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T19:01:32.662000+00:00,"np, i agree it’s confusing but non obvious to propose a strictly better alternative UI",hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:00:34.805000+00:00,"so this is what started it all. Russians alledegdly bombarded a camp of Wagner PMC. +https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/statu",decrease,decrease,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-08-22T13:33:01.946000+00:00,Don't count your chickens before they hatch. No way he makes it another year.,hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:06:54.256000+00:00,I am going to go fully insane if this is being counted as a coup while the big news of the evening are that a coup did i,decrease,hold,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:09:16.312000+00:00,"putin doing a televised response addressing it, taking it seriously. Putin also thought it was a coup",decrease,decrease,True +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T20:59:26.793000+00:00,Was thinking 1:1 odds because it would be a schelling point.,hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-28T06:39:07.116000+00:00,"here's a derivative market, have fun",hold,decrease,False +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T21:17:06.826000+00:00,"I've felt it's pretty likely for days, was just trying to get a better price but was struggling to get orders filled",decrease,decrease,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-13T21:13:27.640000+00:00,"well, they did explicitly say in the hardware video that Steam Deck itself was going to have more specific announcements",decrease,hold,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:10:03.424000+00:00,They put up checkpoints all around Moscow Oblast. Just because they averted a widespread clash between mercs and gov't f,decrease,hold,False +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T18:43:41.497000+00:00,"Why are people willing to bet so much on this question, is it just interesting or is there some other aspect like it wil",decrease,decrease,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:52.114000+00:00,So you are saying the more logical interpretation is that this market should stay open until trial is over?!?! That is n,decrease,decrease,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:13:56.658000+00:00,surely the probability should drop if there's nothing today. Anthropic 90% of the time releases between Mon-Wed.,hold,decrease,False +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T19:51:46.715000+00:00,"The intention is that you click on the number next to ""Max YES Payout"" and enter the amount of shares you wish to purcha",hold,decrease,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-27T19:50:38.825000+00:00,He's already a centenarian... he would >50% survive if born prematurely 100 years ago,hold,decrease,False +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-25T20:32:02.218000+00:00,"“Has to be at least as strong” +“GPT-4o would also resolve to YES based on its position at #1 on Arena and other ways in",hold,decrease,False +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-20T00:30:38.144000+00:00,you buying no has just made me feel extremely woozy,decrease,decrease,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-02T17:47:17.372000+00:00,Making major moves is the name of my game. It is rude for you to be even asking me!!!,hold,hold,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-17T23:32:40.370000+00:00,iT WILL HAPPEN. iT'S HAPPENING. iT'S GOING TO HAPPEN BEFORE DECEMBER 31ST 2025 AND HERE'S WHY YOU'RE ALL WRONG FOR DOUBT,hold,decrease,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:43:54.995000+00:00,I mean that is a series of links. If I come ack with a bunch does that mean it isn't,decrease,decrease,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T22:05:41.328000+00:00,"I am younger than Half-Life 2 and I'll be able to legally drink next week. It has been a +long + time.",decrease,decrease,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:33:14.465000+00:00,there was an attempted coup which failed,decrease,decrease,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:37:04.603000+00:00,Even that is based on assumptions. According to both sides that's not the case. The only reason people think this was a ,decrease,hold,False +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T10:47:23.499000+00:00,another brilliant game of ‘twitter vagueposts: anonymous leaks or spontaneous mass delusion’,hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:14:03.247000+00:00,. I often get the feeling that we spend much energy on quabbeling about the boundaries of nebulous concepts. I think wh,decrease,hold,False +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-05T04:56:36.502000+00:00,"humor aside because I suck at humor sometimes, honestly, I think even at second removed, there's already a lot of opport",hold,decrease,False +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:03:29.920000+00:00,part of the fun of it tbh. a little conflict of interest to navigate,hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-29T06:00:09.693000+00:00,"MoD's future is uncertain but there haven't been any changes yet. +For this market, yes.",hold,hold,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T00:23:40.281000+00:00,"lmk if other ppl want to offload YES shares or buy more NO, I can probably find a good price",decrease,decrease,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T12:43:17.297000+00:00,"Good reporting here: +‘Sam? Are you there?!’ The bizarre and brutal final hours of FTX (FT) +I still think this market ",decrease,decrease,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:37:55.826000+00:00,"if neither side considers it a couple, reporting doesn't call it that at the end of the day, then it could easily go in ",decrease,hold,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:15:35.329000+00:00,"not a coup according to the expert +https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672689832462614529?cxt=HHwWgoC8tcqiy7YuAAAA",decrease,hold,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T00:55:58.463000+00:00,"Jimmy Carter the 39th President of the United States from 1977-1981 will be 100 years young in just a few hours, our fir",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T17:37:47.819000+00:00,I sort of regret betting in this market since it feels icky and disrespectful. No matter when Mr Carter passes I wish fo,hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..341364264f8189d9058fdd5793a58ebe67e94256 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,64 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:50:48.454000+00:00,"is that the official story is preposterous +preposterous things happen sometimes, how plausible was chatgpt? +Prigozhin ",hold,hold,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:39:44.847000+00:00,"I am willing to sell at 50%. If you want to buy from me, you have to take it in 5k spurts, otherwise the orders would ge",hold,hold,True +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-01T17:58:06.645000+00:00,The bet is cancelled. Someone who is more comfortable with negotiating betting terms might want to take over and try to ,hold,hold,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:13:02.934000+00:00,"Some of y'all are featured here :-P +https://news.manifold.markets/p/forecasting-claude-leaks",flip,hold,False +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-20T11:58:24.828000+00:00,"I think the question here is the base rate of high profile cases, right?",hold,hold,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:33:51.434000+00:00,at this point I think we're at an impasse and if you really feel you've been indisputably wronged here I recommend block,flip,flip,True +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-24T19:50:52.333000+00:00,I think only the models that were available at the time Grok 3 was released should count.,hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-29T20:14:48.155000+00:00,You have gone the full goblin mode and I am too sorry for you.,hold,flip,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:23:18.454000+00:00,"oh this is being solved by media? which sources doo u want? also, is it just a consensus on what term is being thrown ar",flip,hold,False +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T21:04:27.064000+00:00,That's right we should consider which possible worlds are more probable given what we've observed.,hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T17:29:09.352000+00:00,"Sorry, if I post 10 links does that make your arguement stronger or weaker. There is a reason I'm not playing this never",hold,flip,False +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-02T09:56:38.546000+00:00,"I sold my NO shares, I'll take my 1% profits. Lots of rumors going around still.",flip,hold,False +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T18:17:25.023000+00:00,Because that’s in his interest if he wants any chance of not spending the rest of his life behind bars?,flip,flip,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-09T22:47:29.592000+00:00,"https://chatgpt.com/share/1be4b80a-c44d-4c75-bd16-665826718bed +You see, +I kinda agree +With ChatGPT",hold,hold,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T18:02:35.456000+00:00,"It's real this time. They just dropped this + a bunch of other hardware. +https://store.steampowered.com/sale/steamfram",flip,hold,False +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-05T01:35:32.311000+00:00,"I'm happy that people have finally come around to my mindset, which is that SBF thinks he's smarter than everyone else a",flip,hold,False +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T19:01:32.662000+00:00,"np, i agree it’s confusing but non obvious to propose a strictly better alternative UI",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-12-07T05:34:14.440000+00:00,"Eyeballing it from actuarial tables ( +https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html +), seems about ~35% he dies in a ye",flip,flip,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-08-22T13:33:01.946000+00:00,Don't count your chickens before they hatch. No way he makes it another year.,hold,hold,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-06T07:22:04.183000+00:00,"Counterpoint: normal people (average Superbowl viewers) don't know what Sonnet is, and definitely don't care about the d",flip,hold,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-28T06:39:07.116000+00:00,"here's a derivative market, have fun",hold,hold,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T20:10:22.678000+00:00,What do you mean they’re not a thing? They definitely happen. Madoff was sentenced to 150 years. I don’t know what the o,flip,flip,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:26:23.076000+00:00,True. But as a good classical utilitarian he should be good at intertemporal substitution and prefer fewer years behind ,flip,flip,True +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T20:59:26.793000+00:00,Was thinking 1:1 odds because it would be a schelling point.,hold,hold,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T04:01:01.865000+00:00,"I sold my m5k shares before the spike, very clean exit",flip,hold,False +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",flip,hold,False +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T09:25:48.250000+00:00,why does this market have such low liquidity,flip,hold,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-27T19:50:38.825000+00:00,He's already a centenarian... he would >50% survive if born prematurely 100 years ago,hold,flip,False +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T19:51:46.715000+00:00,"The intention is that you click on the number next to ""Max YES Payout"" and enter the amount of shares you wish to purcha",hold,hold,True +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-25T20:32:02.218000+00:00,"“Has to be at least as strong” +“GPT-4o would also resolve to YES based on its position at #1 on Arena and other ways in",hold,hold,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:13:56.658000+00:00,surely the probability should drop if there's nothing today. Anthropic 90% of the time releases between Mon-Wed.,hold,hold,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-17T23:32:40.370000+00:00,iT WILL HAPPEN. iT'S HAPPENING. iT'S GOING TO HAPPEN BEFORE DECEMBER 31ST 2025 AND HERE'S WHY YOU'RE ALL WRONG FOR DOUBT,hold,hold,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,flip,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T01:22:30.133000+00:00,Mostly because I hadn’t read the news articles carefully enough and so failed to realize it was about the arraignment. I,flip,flip,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:27:52.303000+00:00,There is no singular guilty/not guilty plea. Imagine if there was some bombshell testimony at trial and the best strateg,flip,hold,False +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-19T17:53:11.049000+00:00,Will he play video games while testifying in his own defense? https://manifold.markets/TeddyWeverka/will-sbf-be-playing,flip,hold,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:10:03.764000+00:00,im not disagreeing. i agree. its sorted out and wikipedia has decided it is officially not a coup.,flip,flip,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T10:47:23.499000+00:00,another brilliant game of ‘twitter vagueposts: anonymous leaks or spontaneous mass delusion’,hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-02T17:47:17.372000+00:00,Making major moves is the name of my game. It is rude for you to be even asking me!!!,hold,flip,False +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:03:29.920000+00:00,part of the fun of it tbh. a little conflict of interest to navigate,hold,hold,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:31:56.546000+00:00,"The market should stay open until either SBF pleads guilty to something, or he dies of old age! +Okay, I don't really be",flip,flip,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T04:02:09.389000+00:00,"Something to keep in mind as odds vary wildly based on barely any evidence: +Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer",flip,hold,False +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T19:13:50.494000+00:00,"it is unfathomable to describe any form of progress to half life 3, valve doing something ""quickly""",flip,hold,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-29T06:00:09.693000+00:00,"MoD's future is uncertain but there haven't been any changes yet. +For this market, yes.",hold,hold,True +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-05T04:56:36.502000+00:00,"humor aside because I suck at humor sometimes, honestly, I think even at second removed, there's already a lot of opport",hold,flip,False +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T00:01:41.351000+00:00,"ok, u get the bayesian price... this time",flip,hold,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T17:37:47.819000+00:00,I sort of regret betting in this market since it feels icky and disrespectful. No matter when Mr Carter passes I wish fo,hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T00:55:58.463000+00:00,"Jimmy Carter the 39th President of the United States from 1977-1981 will be 100 years young in just a few hours, our fir",hold,hold,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:27:24.929000+00:00,the Orange Box was up there with Halo 2 as the greatest video game releases in history. Surely you’ve heard the lore,flip,hold,False +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T19:49:05.039000+00:00,"That’s the arraignment plea, he will still probably be offered a deal later on. It’s not unusual for defendants to plead",flip,flip,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f4528fd1d262249fb179d98a8f05ab1da97adced --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,124 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T18:15:52.937000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Let us say there is cats, with many colors variety. Is it to say we must discuss their fur color to discuss each individ",hold,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:02:44.943000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"so, for Yes on the market riot/insurgency is enough? How much (Just the order of magnitude) dead by Vagner hands is enou",decrease,decrease,True,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T23:56:37.256000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,so lemme get this straight... the original discussions which originated this hype into the market mostly(not exclusively,decrease,decrease,True,True,2048.8152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-23T21:34:26.242000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"When people buy YES shares on this market, it cheers jimmy on and makes him stronger. Together we can help him over the ",increase,increase,True,True,10588.3143,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:33:12.225000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"If the insider leaks turn out to be real, that would be ahead of trend. +I created a line of best fit where the intercep",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-28T09:53:03.867000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Maybe Yes. +First of all VALVE always announce killer games to boost their hardware sales. As we all know, the steam mac",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",flip,decrease,False,True,7830.7591,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T10:47:23.499000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,another brilliant game of ‘twitter vagueposts: anonymous leaks or spontaneous mass delusion’,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T16:23:39.491000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,The photos of him at the funeral were a downward update,flip,decrease,False,True,3957.0859,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:26:29.524000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,it literally can resolve NO? 😂,flip,increase,False,True,18899.0491,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T17:00:04.478000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,it was funny the first time but the pings are a little excessive,increase,hold,False,True,101.6602,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:39:49.689000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I have now learned that the word I am looking for is insurrection,decrease,hold,False,True,600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T18:46:28.449000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"If you think that, there are a number of markets you can make a lot of manna in that have very high conviction probabili",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T17:07:07.388000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I like how beating a 2 month old model on swe-bench is a ""benchmarking beast"".",hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-27T17:39:00.678000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Putin calls Wagner mutiny ""treason"" in televised address - YouTube +im slowly reading through the comments, but you aske",flip,decrease,False,True,15.4917,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T12:42:21.508000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Hm, would it be better to say something like +""He thinks black people are less intelligent than white people, he thinks ",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-12T17:36:50.837000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Jimmy isn't like other hospice patients because he isn't currently facing any major health problems other than old age. ,hold,increase,False,True,23977.2421,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:26:23.076000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,True. But as a good classical utilitarian he should be good at intertemporal substitution and prefer fewer years behind ,flip,decrease,False,True,103.9002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-29T18:07:09.735000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Yeah but it’s also one of your largest positions!,increase,decrease,False,True,2828.6758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-30T22:52:57.361000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Someone bought through my limit orders, so I put up another m500.",decrease,increase,False,True,1300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T20:55:53.043000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"mind explaining what, if any, objection you have? I see this is a trial where we have to present evidence for and agains",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:52:53.465000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,It makes perfect sense to me to have a market like this one stay open during SBF's trial while also having other markets,increase,hold,False,True,3300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-30T14:32:34.168000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,how are you leaning on resolution?,increase,hold,False,True,733.4045,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T05:43:13.806000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"What happens if they announce a Half-Life game without a number, like Alyx was? I assume NO, just verifying.",decrease,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T04:02:34.424000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Counter point: Insiders likely already betting on a release,flip,decrease,False,True,28.5787,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T18:46:18.984000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"yeah I agree. no insider news, but I had already decided to switch before + said something yesterday and needed to bait",increase,decrease,False,True,10198.2026,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-02T20:41:28.777000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,what reason do we have to trust this guy,hold,decrease,False,True,106.6252,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-12-07T05:34:14.440000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Eyeballing it from actuarial tables ( +https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html +), seems about ~35% he dies in a ye",flip,decrease,False,True,35.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:25:44.518000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I accidently bought $2K of YES when I meant to buy $2K of NO. So frustrated by the stupidity of the arguments being made,decrease,decrease,True,True,4276.3927,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T22:44:08.894000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Seems like Russia is taking it more seriously than Prigozhin's previous theatrics: +https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro",flip,decrease,False,True,13.8251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T22:19:28.416000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"If anyone has a specific instance to share but is holding back because the incentives aren't high enough, I just added m",increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T02:32:32.784000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I believe you, i just disn't really want to check, but i think it is bizarre, like, vibometer? Really.",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T06:11:38.705000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Grok 3 is still improving with reinforcement learning,increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-07T19:46:00.117000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,The point of this market looked to be evaluating Musk’s claim but it’s now purposely excluding models that are expected ,hold,decrease,False,True,0.7079,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T18:17:25.023000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because that’s in his interest if he wants any chance of not spending the rest of his life behind bars?,flip,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T14:31:28.017000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Why does this increase chances of guilty plea?,decrease,flip,False,True,2560.9946,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:10:03.764000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,im not disagreeing. i agree. its sorted out and wikipedia has decided it is officially not a coup.,decrease,flip,False,True,15.4917,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:29:35.397000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,did the market creator agree to take terms though,increase,hold,False,True,41.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T00:27:52.654000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"just because of this, I’ll only sell you those shares back at 66%. No takesies-backsies",flip,decrease,False,True,6165.3593,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T14:33:34.841000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,But he did eventually wear down and accept the conventional legal answer. I think he's likely too much of a utilitarian ,increase,increase,True,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:23:25.895000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"It also seems likely that Claude Opus 4.6 +will be released this month +, +not far behind Sonnet 5 +, with ~70% odds o",increase,decrease,False,True,46107.6938,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T17:55:51.860000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,may I ask... what gave you two the confidence to bet > half your net worths on this single question?,flip,decrease,False,True,9403.5074,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T12:53:04.071000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I disagree. If it is ambiguous whether someone is writing in bad faith, and they also seem to be unsure whether you are ",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:40:01.788000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Yeah I'm genuinely confused why the market is at 50% right now after that clarification +edit: and am aware that often t",increase,decrease,False,True,553.4045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T00:27:03.377000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,this is adverse selection and I won’t stand for it,flip,decrease,False,True,6165.3593,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T19:44:56.791000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"As a russian, I highly doubt that it was a ""postanova"". The damage in the form of several helicopters taken down (plus a",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T18:06:22.027000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Maybe defendants charged with fraud are not representative of big CEOs charged with fraud. I think my reference class i,increase,decrease,False,True,1225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T19:12:56.515000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,half-life playlist on valves youtube channel updated with a private video. hopium,decrease,increase,False,True,25015.5938,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:03:49.929000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Even if you're right, pleading guilty get him behind bars quicker +not pleading guilty --> ""house arrest"" in luxury for",flip,decrease,False,True,79.1095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:27:52.303000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,There is no singular guilty/not guilty plea. Imagine if there was some bombshell testimony at trial and the best strateg,flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T02:34:46.172000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,There is no way it's better enough for a normal person to notice any difference,flip,increase,False,True,7820.2898,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T03:49:58.103000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,hey aren't you the new ftx ceo,flip,hold,False,True,557.6486,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-20T16:36:53.434000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,His active trades are probably limit orders executing.,increase,hold,False,True,3469.7989,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T20:10:22.678000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,What do you mean they’re not a thing? They definitely happen. Madoff was sentenced to 150 years. I don’t know what the o,flip,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T12:20:53.051000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"🎂🎂 What a ride, way to go Jimmy! 🎂🎂",hold,increase,False,True,2430.6167,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T04:01:01.865000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my m5k shares before the spike, very clean exit",flip,hold,False,True,28.5787,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:05:06.716000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"A coup attempt is not a coup, just as attempted murder is not murder. This was most likely a demonstration of power to b",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T21:23:58.778000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"You called for it twice. I am not insulting you for it. +I was initially sorry for you, but the more you comment, the le",increase,decrease,False,True,17083.7682,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T08:28:10.384000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,One could even say that Prigozhin fell out of of the Overton-window.,hold,decrease,False,True,8.4606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:02:19.784000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i would like to pick up some NO’s want to take the other side?,decrease,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-30T14:06:32.953000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Sounds like Medicare fraud to me. That's not hospice.,hold,hold,True,True,331873.8318,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:59:51.039000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"""Wagner’s rebellious mercenary leader will move to Belarus under the terms of a truce agreed with President Putin, the K",decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-09-24T00:09:18.898000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"""If Carter dies"" +So this market won't resolve until his passing,?",increase,decrease,False,True,11.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T05:32:29.814000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I don’t dispute the lmsys scores are impressive, but it was my understanding reasoning models wouldn’t be included. Was ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-07T04:19:28.316000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"According to a dream I had, Jimmy became a sokushinbutsu monk after Rosalynn died. So he'll make it to 107.",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:23:46.382000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Their clarification was still pretty ambiguous. But I agree that the market will probably resolve correctly.,increase,hold,False,True,3700.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:04:13.846000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"i have some up at 92%, it's pretty high mb",decrease,decrease,True,True,158670.4461,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:57:39.719000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"This is Moscow right now (according to that telegram channel i just found). They don't seem to think this is fake. +http",decrease,increase,False,True,32.4457,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:17:18.015000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,why are you buying NO this market literally cannot resolve NO,hold,decrease,False,True,9544.998,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-24T16:32:07.865000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"In America, you strap the mobility scooter to the back of the van and we ride into the walmart parking lot floodlights. ",hold,increase,False,True,73623.8034,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:13:02.934000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Some of y'all are featured here :-P +https://news.manifold.markets/p/forecasting-claude-leaks",increase,hold,False,True,103.9064,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:23:03.760000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,This market has become a joke.,decrease,decrease,True,True,4276.3927,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-18T13:29:45.881000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Zoom, zoom, zoom. We're going to the moon.",increase,increase,True,True,12000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:26:25.314000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"maybe! I've had to consider alternative strategies. since robin is worth more points for my team than I am, do I let mys",hold,decrease,False,True,5441.2943,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:15:53.820000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,as for specifying the resolution criteria: I think if I see enough combat footage of Wagnerites fighting Russian forces ,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T14:20:00.654000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Maybe he's worried the vibrations from last night's +Rock Concert +will kill him.",hold,decrease,False,True,47784.4559,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:26:27.936000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"the Russians are lying! +It is incredible. The western media has, for years, been saying that the Russians are lying li",increase,decrease,False,True,2200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-09-06T10:53:40.861000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,since you seem to be trying to dump your shares you might be interested in betting down,hold,decrease,False,True,1098.6395,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:00:37.403000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"If putin didn't think this was a real threat, would he respond publicly like that and basically let the world know that ",decrease,increase,False,True,81.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:56:14.758000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,LOL good point. We should be anticipating unorthodox decisions for sure.,decrease,decrease,True,True,2560.9946,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:26:17.164000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Otherwise resolves according to my gut feeling about this having been a coup or a false alarm. +I'm highly confident the",hold,hold,True,True,1597.0313,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T03:20:25.102000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"What is he accused of attempting? In what world can an armed division occupy one city at 5AM, drive 1000 kilometers, an",increase,increase,True,True,1200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:53:18.901000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Obviously I don't think you're a ""tall supremacist"" if you believe that tall people are better at basketball than short ",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T00:23:40.281000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"lmk if other ppl want to offload YES shares or buy more NO, I can probably find a good price",flip,hold,False,True,6165.3593,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T20:58:50.257000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Technically yes but not for this market. The coup here will be defined as a significant amount of Russians fighting each,decrease,decrease,True,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:11:18.720000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"ah, what a bummer abt the v0 announcement 🤷‍♀️",flip,decrease,False,True,23515.1786,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:31:56.546000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"The market should stay open until either SBF pleads guilty to something, or he dies of old age! +Okay, I don't really be",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:32:40.961000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,You absolutely can change a guilty plea to not guilty. You can also change a not-guilty plea to a guilty plea.,flip,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-26T16:37:30.783000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,You are not it so I am not worried for you until market is resolving!,hold,hold,True,True,64875.1841,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T17:08:06.569000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"😂 that's cool! but I meant more like if your avg Yes share cost you x, and you wanted to sell 50% of them off at 1.5x, i",hold,decrease,False,True,73404.9892,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:10:03.424000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,They put up checkpoints all around Moscow Oblast. Just because they averted a widespread clash between mercs and gov't f,decrease,increase,False,True,310.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T11:20:46.849000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,Scott's daycare scenario seems hypothetical or based on false information. Daycare providers are required by federal law,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T22:15:25.822000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,postanova = more for show than substance (German phrase),hold,decrease,False,True,8.4606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:27:24.929000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,the Orange Box was up there with Halo 2 as the greatest video game releases in history. Surely you’ve heard the lore,flip,hold,False,True,114.1025,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-06T13:04:34.398000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,what is the correct proportion or amount of white supremacists reading a blog before you would agree the blog is a work ,decrease,decrease,True,True,1035.2822,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-22T05:41:39.280000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I lost my virginity to a girl who used to quote this video all the time,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-05T01:35:32.311000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I'm happy that people have finally come around to my mindset, which is that SBF thinks he's smarter than everyone else a",flip,decrease,False,True,968.4027,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T19:44:58.849000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,a market resolving that david duke has only been provably a white supremacist for 7 years surely only demonstrates the r,hold,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:38:34.804000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I believe that most readers would understand the market question to require a coup attempt rather than a successful coup,decrease,hold,False,True,310.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d88c23b88780dd02caed20784d1ffcbcbacf16bf --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,125 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-03T23:12:09.175000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I was wrong but I don't think the base rate was really that far off from 55% or whatever we were at. Sometimes people de,increase,decrease,False,True,2149.4759,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:37:04.603000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Even that is based on assumptions. According to both sides that's not the case. The only reason people think this was a ,decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-03T01:32:52.510000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Plenty of time to buy YES later when it becomes even more likely.,increase,hold,False,True,930.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T16:43:29.540000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Yes, there's a lot of rumors about something today.",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T05:02:28.794000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Is there any way this resolves no given this: +“Grok-3 is: + - First-ever model to break 1400 score! +- #1 across all c",decrease,decrease,True,True,1475.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:00:37.403000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"If putin didn't think this was a real threat, would he respond publicly like that and basically let the world know that ",flip,increase,False,True,81.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2024-08-15T20:00:37.390000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Take a look at this LLM benchmark: +https://livebench.ai/ +A way better/fairer ranking than lmsys imo",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T07:28:37.724000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"they claim to have taken control over Rostov-on-Don: +https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/wagner-chief-claims-",hold,increase,False,True,8.4606,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T04:01:01.865000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my m5k shares before the spike, very clean exit",flip,hold,False,True,28.5787,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-27T17:39:00.678000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Putin calls Wagner mutiny ""treason"" in televised address - YouTube +im slowly reading through the comments, but you aske",flip,decrease,False,True,15.4917,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-20T00:10:34.632000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"API access and the full set of benchmarks, at least.",flip,increase,False,True,1050.2029,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T15:18:50.344000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,any reason to believe this other than rumours?,increase,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T02:49:24.600000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"It wasn't a coup attempt. It was just a military convoy, and the Russians making ostentatious announcement about what t",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-04-27T06:45:37.481000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"When the defendant is super famous the prosecutor’s incentives are probably different, None of the other famous fraud ",decrease,increase,False,True,3070.3293,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-21T13:17:30.542000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Just 10 more days to go until President Carter’s 100th birthday! Let’s gooo Jimmy! You can make it!,hold,increase,False,True,112.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-04T10:15:54.933000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"try this new substance called facts +It's gonna blow your mind +Believe ME",hold,hold,True,True,16923.3542,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T20:47:07.745000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I am going to see a very comfortable profit right here but feel free to link other markets in which I will win,hold,decrease,False,True,958.4027,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T14:59:08.321000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Fool me a dozen times, shame on you.",decrease,increase,False,True,28.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-05T01:35:32.311000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I'm happy that people have finally come around to my mindset, which is that SBF thinks he's smarter than everyone else a",flip,decrease,False,True,968.4027,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:08:06.081000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,It will be really messed up if this market resolves to NO because SBF pleaded not guilty at his arraignment even if he p,increase,hold,False,True,1900.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-26T10:23:47.511000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"It was ""final chapter"" in Aug2023, now it's ""near the end"". There's still a subtle difference. +Him ""still recognizing p",hold,decrease,False,True,80.0977,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T17:00:04.478000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,it was funny the first time but the pings are a little excessive,increase,hold,False,True,101.6602,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:29:10.185000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"ok well wikipedia says that ""White supremacy or white supremacism is the belief that white people are superior to those ",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T12:13:36.494000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"That’s because there’s only 10 days to go. The closer it gets, the higher the probability he makes it.",increase,increase,True,True,11742.0046,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:03:49.929000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Even if you're right, pleading guilty get him behind bars quicker +not pleading guilty --> ""house arrest"" in luxury for",flip,decrease,False,True,79.1095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-22T05:41:39.280000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I lost my virginity to a girl who used to quote this video all the time,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T01:22:30.133000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Mostly because I hadn’t read the news articles carefully enough and so failed to realize it was about the arraignment. I,flip,hold,False,True,103.9002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-11T13:47:53.424000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"then the ""after August 2024"" in +https://manifold.markets/Predictor/when-will-jimmy-carter-pass-away + is waaay underpr",hold,flip,False,True,22.3139,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:43:54.995000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I mean that is a series of links. If I come ack with a bunch does that mean it isn't,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T03:49:58.103000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,hey aren't you the new ftx ceo,flip,hold,False,True,557.6486,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T20:33:35.822000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,I am noping out of here I think. Damaging maybe to my reputation such controversies in comments.,hold,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-29T18:19:26.450000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"At the moment I have a 100 mana profit here, I don't think I'm going to bridge the gap to 100k mana. Lol",increase,decrease,False,True,20000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-07-23T15:36:25.164000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I'm going to hide the comment with the fake tweet - I don't think it's nice to troll people like that here,increase,hold,False,True,1111.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:23:25.895000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"It also seems likely that Claude Opus 4.6 +will be released this month +, +not far behind Sonnet 5 +, with ~70% odds o",increase,decrease,False,True,46107.6938,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T17:52:08.310000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"people with jobs do have more power than people without them, but you do realize that the power a ceo or politician has ",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-18T19:18:01.860000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"https://xcancel.com/natethehate2/status/1990859068118798540?s=46 +mmw: if nate comes out with a time, >90% it's gonna ha",decrease,increase,False,True,23492.1099,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T20:10:22.678000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,What do you mean they’re not a thing? They definitely happen. Madoff was sentenced to 150 years. I don’t know what the o,flip,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:31:56.546000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"The market should stay open until either SBF pleads guilty to something, or he dies of old age! +Okay, I don't really be",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T22:28:35.330000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,It’s over guys. BTC crashed and Sonnet was cancelled.,increase,increase,True,True,260.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T03:57:31.167000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"""I often get the feeling that we spend much energy on quabbeling about the boundaries of nebulous concepts. I think what",decrease,increase,False,True,85.8479,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T12:16:44.961000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I previously held a NO position because I was a doubter about pure scaling vs secret sauce reinforcement+training corpus,increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T17:55:51.860000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,may I ask... what gave you two the confidence to bet > half your net worths on this single question?,flip,decrease,False,True,9403.5074,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-06T15:02:52.118000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"At his age ""terminal illness"" without many symptoms simply does not affect life expectancy very much. That is a fact. Th",hold,increase,False,True,1030.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T19:10:23.967000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"""With depressing regularity, I find myself arguing on the side of Horrible People."" - Scott Alexander",increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:27:24.929000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,the Orange Box was up there with Halo 2 as the greatest video game releases in history. Surely you’ve heard the lore,flip,hold,False,True,114.1025,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-06T14:18:12.989000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"it IS the default Claude experience though, and i dont get why they would ever be okay with shipping with an inferior on",decrease,increase,False,True,6203.8781,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T22:20:33.902000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,it means the model isnt on vertex AI,increase,decrease,False,True,4363.0952,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T16:26:55.506000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Very thin but all of the top 10 causes of death in the us have a large negative correlation to weight (accidents i’m not,flip,increase,False,True,3957.0859,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-02T09:56:38.546000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my NO shares, I'll take my 1% profits. Lots of rumors going around still.",flip,decrease,False,True,28.5787,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-25T18:30:30.851000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,exactly... he currently does not have any ailments. The market should be around 70% unless there's an announcement that ,hold,hold,True,True,44958.5186,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T04:02:34.424000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Counter point: Insiders likely already betting on a release,flip,decrease,False,True,28.5787,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",flip,decrease,False,True,7830.7591,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T08:10:42.903000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,but that is not what scott believes...,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T00:01:41.351000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"ok, u get the bayesian price... this time",flip,hold,False,True,23696.7071,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:47:06.181000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,There is another gigacasting market for that possibility.,hold,hold,True,True,1974.1073,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:11:18.720000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"ah, what a bummer abt the v0 announcement 🤷‍♀️",flip,decrease,False,True,23515.1786,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:43:14.494000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Yes, so he might still plead guilty. Thanks for conceding that.",decrease,hold,False,True,183.9738,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T00:57:00.671000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,dont do it bro its sonnet saturday tmrw,decrease,decrease,True,True,6444.0078,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T23:30:46.853000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i'll do more volume if you'd like,increase,increase,True,True,31636.5496,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T22:41:53.228000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-a-new-claude-opus-model-be-rel?r=QmVuQXliYXI + +I have a limit up at 40% on yes ",increase,increase,True,True,2990.306,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T00:17:01.119000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Golly gee wow I can't wait to profit 23 mana from this market. Wish I had bet more,hold,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T21:18:28.479000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,can you message me on discord? Just join the manifold discord and search LeviF,hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:47:30.607000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"44% of Russians watching think it all is a performance/fake, 22% that Prigozhin is angry at Shojgu specifically, 35% co",decrease,decrease,True,True,33.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:29:20.584000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,if that is the case why even offer him a deal. It sounds like they have him dead to rights. They might just tell him he ,decrease,decrease,True,True,2560.9946,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T03:54:10.659000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,Create an AI tool and fund it by manipulating prediction markets,decrease,hold,False,True,72.2977,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T20:58:50.257000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Technically yes but not for this market. The coup here will be defined as a significant amount of Russians fighting each,decrease,decrease,True,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T20:05:01.474000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,The 7 year result was a lower bound based on the quotes people cited. It's quite possible it could have been higher if p,hold,decrease,False,True,69.6886,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:04:31.219000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,they bought superbowl ad spaces. wouldnt make much sense to not have sonnet 5 deployed for the new users.,increase,increase,True,True,1476.86,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T03:20:25.102000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"What is he accused of attempting? In what world can an armed division occupy one city at 5AM, drive 1000 kilometers, an",increase,increase,True,True,1200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-27T14:57:45.128000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,December doesn't feel like a good season to make a huge announcement. Spent another 1k on NO,decrease,increase,False,True,2637.1246,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-07-24T13:19:55.293000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"The odds here before I bet were about at the life table stats, ~34% chance of death for a 99 year old in the next year. ",hold,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-25T00:23:34.704000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"You are free to troll around with the definition. As I have told repeatedly and I will say again, the market was never a",hold,hold,True,True,3600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:22:02.502000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"What?!?! When is the ""real"" guilty plea????",decrease,decrease,True,True,4276.3927,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:40:01.788000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Yeah I'm genuinely confused why the market is at 50% right now after that clarification +edit: and am aware that often t",increase,decrease,False,True,553.4045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-25T20:23:19.844000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"it doesn’t need to top on every benchmark for this market to resolve YES, if that were the case there couldn’t be two di",hold,decrease,False,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T21:39:14.065000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,you didn’t even read the first 6 words of my comment,hold,decrease,False,True,967.6681,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T19:12:56.515000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,half-life playlist on valves youtube channel updated with a private video. hopium,decrease,increase,False,True,25015.5938,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:38:34.804000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I believe that most readers would understand the market question to require a coup attempt rather than a successful coup,decrease,hold,False,True,310.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-22T23:12:44.516000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I bought no at 15% and somehow managed to turn it around for profit. Been a hell of a market.,increase,decrease,False,True,59304.4559,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:59.272000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,This very clearly was not very clearly stated.,decrease,decrease,True,True,183.9738,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T06:17:44.954000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I'm going pretty much all-in on SBF pleading guilty. That's what's happening.,hold,increase,False,True,15084.5686,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T18:06:22.027000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Maybe defendants charged with fraud are not representative of big CEOs charged with fraud. I think my reference class i,increase,decrease,False,True,1225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:27:38.619000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,This was a threat demonstrating the willingness of Wagner to destabilize the war-efforts in Ukraine and blackmailing the,decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T19:58:03.451000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,IOW a few minutes ago was a good time to but YES!,flip,flip,True,True,103.9002,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-29T18:05:17.434000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"I just think it's closer to a 30-40% chance at the moment, nothing else other than that.",increase,decrease,False,True,20000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-07-24T14:18:22.458000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I guess people want to keep it 60ish 70ish until a week before he turns 100. I'll buy more then,hold,increase,False,True,18478.6161,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T19:49:05.039000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"That’s the arraignment plea, he will still probably be offered a deal later on. It’s not unusual for defendants to plead",flip,hold,False,True,103.9002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:32:40.961000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,You absolutely can change a guilty plea to not guilty. You can also change a not-guilty plea to a guilty plea.,flip,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T19:13:50.494000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"it is unfathomable to describe any form of progress to half life 3, valve doing something ""quickly""",flip,increase,False,True,0.7287,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-18T08:06:12.170000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,put your limit order where your mouth is,hold,increase,False,True,38390.5874,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-25T00:33:06.847000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now? +Rumors are going round that Wagner units are attempting a coup against the russi",hold,hold,True,True,3600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:05:06.716000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"A coup attempt is not a coup, just as attempted murder is not murder. This was most likely a demonstration of power to b",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-10T07:07:13.527000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Rumors of an announcement this Wednesday,hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:50:18.685000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Like when I Google Russia the news stories call it a myriad of different things. Coup isn't unanimous atm.,decrease,decrease,True,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-04-30T14:46:11.839000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I saw this comment in my notifications and almost cried,hold,hold,True,True,29209.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T04:02:09.389000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Something to keep in mind as odds vary wildly based on barely any evidence: +Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer",flip,decrease,False,True,123.9793,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T00:23:40.281000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"lmk if other ppl want to offload YES shares or buy more NO, I can probably find a good price",decrease,hold,False,True,6165.3593,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:04:52.244000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I meant like the other side like I wanted you to put a yes limit but if you don’t feel comfortable, that’s fine",decrease,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-19T17:53:11.049000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Will he play video games while testifying in his own defense? https://manifold.markets/TeddyWeverka/will-sbf-be-playing,flip,hold,False,True,15.2605,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ce013b60d6e7e9f3d3e9ade4f816e1fb7e0ff149 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,126 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-25T20:32:02.218000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"“Has to be at least as strong” +“GPT-4o would also resolve to YES based on its position at #1 on Arena and other ways in",hold,decrease,False,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:00:34.805000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"so this is what started it all. Russians alledegdly bombarded a camp of Wagner PMC. +https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/statu",decrease,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T12:43:17.297000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Good reporting here: +‘Sam? Are you there?!’ The bizarre and brutal final hours of FTX (FT) +I still think this market ",decrease,hold,False,True,1524.9267,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:20:14.099000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"likely to crater if morning on the West Coast passes with no release. +I'll bet against this, anyone down?",increase,flip,False,True,46107.6938,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T20:23:48.305000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I don't think you understand what ""white supremacy"" is.",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T08:10:42.903000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,but that is not what scott believes...,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:31:56.546000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"The market should stay open until either SBF pleads guilty to something, or he dies of old age! +Okay, I don't really be",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-24T19:50:52.333000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I think only the models that were available at the time Grok 3 was released should count.,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:27:24.929000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,the Orange Box was up there with Halo 2 as the greatest video game releases in history. Surely you’ve heard the lore,flip,hold,False,True,114.1025,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T04:01:01.865000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my m5k shares before the spike, very clean exit",flip,hold,False,True,28.5787,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T04:02:09.389000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Something to keep in mind as odds vary wildly based on barely any evidence: +Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer",flip,decrease,False,True,123.9793,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:48:48.220000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"on current event pages like this, Wikipedia is overrun with eager teenagers who describe everything in the most over-hyp",increase,hold,False,True,2550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:43:54.995000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I mean that is a series of links. If I come ack with a bunch does that mean it isn't,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-07T01:48:25.890000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Unless you think the risk of dying goes down with age for people in hospice, that shouldn't matter. The fact is that peo",increase,increase,True,True,13936.8398,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-05T04:56:36.502000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"humor aside because I suck at humor sometimes, honestly, I think even at second removed, there's already a lot of opport",hold,decrease,False,True,1.9657,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-05T01:35:32.311000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I'm happy that people have finally come around to my mindset, which is that SBF thinks he's smarter than everyone else a",flip,decrease,False,True,968.4027,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:50:48.454000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"is that the official story is preposterous +preposterous things happen sometimes, how plausible was chatgpt? +Prigozhin ",hold,decrease,False,True,633.4045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-27T19:50:38.825000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,He's already a centenarian... he would >50% survive if born prematurely 100 years ago,hold,flip,False,True,80.0977,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T18:17:25.023000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because that’s in his interest if he wants any chance of not spending the rest of his life behind bars?,flip,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T01:04:19.296000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"The market creator defines a coup differently: +I'd define coup as an armed insurgency aimed to replace any higher offic",increase,hold,False,True,3800.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:10:03.424000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,They put up checkpoints all around Moscow Oblast. Just because they averted a widespread clash between mercs and gov't f,decrease,increase,False,True,310.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T00:55:58.463000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy Carter the 39th President of the United States from 1977-1981 will be 100 years young in just a few hours, our fir",hold,increase,False,True,112.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T13:01:13.192000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"this. Plus even if he hadn't, the market description says ""coup against the russian ministry of defense."" so it's reason",increase,hold,False,True,1597.0313,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:01:28.336000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Lol, good job making a profit by spreading nonsense that you yourself don't believe in.",increase,decrease,False,True,3600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:42:03.470000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I think most readers are biased as they invested in ""yes"" when things very much looked like a coup. The sudden resolutio",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-06T07:22:04.183000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Counterpoint: normal people (average Superbowl viewers) don't know what Sonnet is, and definitely don't care about the d",flip,increase,False,True,7020.2898,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:27:28.430000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Wikipedia doesn't ""decide"" this type of thing. They don't have time-machines, US security clearances, or any way of kno",increase,hold,False,True,2200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T19:01:32.662000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"np, i agree it’s confusing but non obvious to propose a strictly better alternative UI",hold,hold,True,True,28450.0149,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:26:23.076000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,True. But as a good classical utilitarian he should be good at intertemporal substitution and prefer fewer years behind ,flip,decrease,False,True,103.9002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:37:55.826000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"if neither side considers it a couple, reporting doesn't call it that at the end of the day, then it could easily go in ",decrease,increase,False,True,41.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T11:05:16.570000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Kinda arb, but not really the same question:",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T10:47:23.499000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,another brilliant game of ‘twitter vagueposts: anonymous leaks or spontaneous mass delusion’,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-03-13T23:31:42.049000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"https://wgrv.com/2024/03/13/former-judge-jimmy-carter-dies/ +https://www.dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/tallahassee-fl/j",increase,decrease,False,True,4078.6758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-02T17:47:17.372000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Making major moves is the name of my game. It is rude for you to be even asking me!!!,hold,increase,False,True,65522.8034,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T09:25:48.250000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,why does this market have such low liquidity,flip,hold,False,True,219.8807,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T21:17:06.826000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I've felt it's pretty likely for days, was just trying to get a better price but was struggling to get orders filled",decrease,decrease,True,True,20703.6388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:09:16.312000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"putin doing a televised response addressing it, taking it seriously. Putin also thought it was a coup",decrease,increase,False,True,11.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T20:43:54.118000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"I am sorry that you lost a lot of mana here, but calling for n/a is getting annoying.",increase,decrease,False,True,16983.7682,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T20:10:22.678000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,What do you mean they’re not a thing? They definitely happen. Madoff was sentenced to 150 years. I don’t know what the o,flip,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:46:28.787000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,You're free to point me to any argument that doesn't rely on the word coup's definition. There isn't any. The media cons,increase,hold,False,True,4300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T17:00:04.478000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,it was funny the first time but the pings are a little excessive,increase,hold,False,True,101.6602,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T00:01:41.351000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"ok, u get the bayesian price... this time",flip,hold,False,True,23696.7071,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-20T11:58:24.828000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I think the question here is the base rate of high profile cases, right?",hold,hold,True,True,10726.7869,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T00:31:20.675000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,oh i misread i wanna buy more NO,increase,flip,False,True,36112.6223,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:23:18.454000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"oh this is being solved by media? which sources doo u want? also, is it just a consensus on what term is being thrown ar",flip,decrease,False,True,15.4917,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T20:59:26.793000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,Was thinking 1:1 odds because it would be a schelling point.,hold,decrease,False,True,69.6886,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T03:24:59.282000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"It wasn't an armed insurgency except for the multiple aircrafts they destroyed, 15+ Russian soldiers they killed and too",increase,increase,True,True,4300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:43:16.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,This question was consistently above 50% while Putin to say in power never dropped below 70. Which suggests that the vas,decrease,decrease,True,True,310.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:33:51.434000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,at this point I think we're at an impasse and if you really feel you've been indisputably wronged here I recommend block,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",flip,decrease,False,True,7830.7591,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-02T09:56:38.546000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my NO shares, I'll take my 1% profits. Lots of rumors going around still.",flip,decrease,False,True,28.5787,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:13:02.934000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Some of y'all are featured here :-P +https://news.manifold.markets/p/forecasting-claude-leaks",flip,hold,False,True,103.9064,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T22:41:53.228000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-a-new-claude-opus-model-be-rel?r=QmVuQXliYXI + +I have a limit up at 40% on yes ",increase,increase,True,True,2990.306,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T18:02:35.456000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"It's real this time. They just dropped this + a bunch of other hardware. +https://store.steampowered.com/sale/steamfram",flip,flip,True,True,250.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T17:37:47.819000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I sort of regret betting in this market since it feels icky and disrespectful. No matter when Mr Carter passes I wish fo,hold,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-12-07T05:34:14.440000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Eyeballing it from actuarial tables ( +https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html +), seems about ~35% he dies in a ye",flip,decrease,False,True,35.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:15:35.329000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"not a coup according to the expert +https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672689832462614529?cxt=HHwWgoC8tcqiy7YuAAAA",decrease,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:04:31.219000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,they bought superbowl ad spaces. wouldnt make much sense to not have sonnet 5 deployed for the new users.,increase,increase,True,True,1476.86,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-01T17:58:06.645000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,The bet is cancelled. Someone who is more comfortable with negotiating betting terms might want to take over and try to ,hold,hold,True,True,69.6886,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:04:52.244000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I meant like the other side like I wanted you to put a yes limit but if you don’t feel comfortable, that’s fine",decrease,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:03:29.920000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,part of the fun of it tbh. a little conflict of interest to navigate,hold,decrease,False,True,5441.2943,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:04:20.625000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"So are we going by today or by whether he takes a plea deal or...? I forecasted based on what he would do today, but per",decrease,decrease,True,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T18:23:55.613000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Just because his business partners are going to testify against him doesn't mean he won't be able to make them appear mo,increase,increase,True,True,323.8475,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-13T21:13:27.640000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"well, they did explicitly say in the hardware video that Steam Deck itself was going to have more specific announcements",decrease,hold,False,True,599.9661,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T15:40:17.573000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"a year of low volume and middling odds, to 2%, to the mid-high 90s has to be one of the craziest swings here like the bi",decrease,decrease,True,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T19:30:53.691000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"We come together to honor the life and legacy of a truly remarkable individual, Jimmy Carter. A man whose unwavering ded",increase,decrease,False,True,544.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T00:23:40.281000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"lmk if other ppl want to offload YES shares or buy more NO, I can probably find a good price",decrease,hold,False,True,6165.3593,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:52.114000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,So you are saying the more logical interpretation is that this market should stay open until trial is over?!?! That is n,decrease,hold,False,True,4276.3927,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-08-22T13:33:01.946000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Don't count your chickens before they hatch. No way he makes it another year.,hold,increase,False,True,544.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T19:51:46.715000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"The intention is that you click on the number next to ""Max YES Payout"" and enter the amount of shares you wish to purcha",hold,hold,True,True,0.2679,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:51:01.356000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Here is a pretty thorough summary by a historian of american slavery +https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/h",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T05:32:29.814000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I don’t dispute the lmsys scores are impressive, but it was my understanding reasoning models wouldn’t be included. Was ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-25T00:01:58.075000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,The thing is there was no ambiguity and the market hovered at 98% for a few hours. By delaying an obvious resolution eve,increase,decrease,False,True,3600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-29T20:14:48.155000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,You have gone the full goblin mode and I am too sorry for you.,hold,decrease,False,True,61748.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:14:03.247000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,. I often get the feeling that we spend much energy on quabbeling about the boundaries of nebulous concepts. I think wh,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:39:44.847000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I am willing to sell at 50%. If you want to buy from me, you have to take it in 5k spurts, otherwise the orders would ge",hold,decrease,False,True,48050.9222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T14:33:34.841000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,But he did eventually wear down and accept the conventional legal answer. I think he's likely too much of a utilitarian ,increase,increase,True,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:13:56.658000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,surely the probability should drop if there's nothing today. Anthropic 90% of the time releases between Mon-Wed.,hold,increase,False,True,48050.9222,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T18:43:41.497000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Why are people willing to bet so much on this question, is it just interesting or is there some other aspect like it wil",decrease,hold,False,True,0.2679,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-27T22:30:12.949000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,When did he argue that more intelligent people should be treated better than less intelligent people?,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-28T06:39:07.116000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"here's a derivative market, have fun",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-12T19:20:18.133000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He'll be offered one—though we may never know about it—but he seems increasingly intent on not taking one. I predict thi,increase,decrease,False,True,133.9002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T20:38:02.232000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Also, I suppose, now the insiders have an incentive to pump the expectation thanks to prediction markets, contrary to pr",increase,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:27:52.303000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,There is no singular guilty/not guilty plea. Imagine if there was some bombshell testimony at trial and the best strateg,flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T22:05:41.328000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I am younger than Half-Life 2 and I'll be able to legally drink next week. It has been a +long + time.",decrease,decrease,True,True,20703.6388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-19T17:53:11.049000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Will he play video games while testifying in his own defense? https://manifold.markets/TeddyWeverka/will-sbf-be-playing,flip,hold,False,True,15.2605,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T01:22:30.133000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Mostly because I hadn’t read the news articles carefully enough and so failed to realize it was about the arraignment. I,flip,hold,False,True,103.9002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:10:03.764000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,im not disagreeing. i agree. its sorted out and wikipedia has decided it is officially not a coup.,flip,flip,True,True,15.4917,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T17:29:09.352000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Sorry, if I post 10 links does that make your arguement stronger or weaker. There is a reason I'm not playing this never",hold,decrease,False,True,633.4045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-09T22:47:29.592000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"https://chatgpt.com/share/1be4b80a-c44d-4c75-bd16-665826718bed +You see, +I kinda agree +With ChatGPT",hold,hold,True,True,8234.6197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:06:54.256000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I am going to go fully insane if this is being counted as a coup while the big news of the evening are that a coup did i,decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-17T23:32:40.370000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,iT WILL HAPPEN. iT'S HAPPENING. iT'S GOING TO HAPPEN BEFORE DECEMBER 31ST 2025 AND HERE'S WHY YOU'RE ALL WRONG FOR DOUBT,hold,increase,False,True,5983.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T21:04:27.064000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,That's right we should consider which possible worlds are more probable given what we've observed.,hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T19:13:50.494000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"it is unfathomable to describe any form of progress to half life 3, valve doing something ""quickly""",flip,increase,False,True,0.7287,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:33:14.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,there was an attempted coup which failed,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:37:04.603000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Even that is based on assumptions. According to both sides that's not the case. The only reason people think this was a ,decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T19:49:05.039000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"That’s the arraignment plea, he will still probably be offered a deal later on. It’s not unusual for defendants to plead",flip,hold,False,True,103.9002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-29T06:00:09.693000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"MoD's future is uncertain but there haven't been any changes yet. +For this market, yes.",hold,decrease,False,True,5200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-20T00:30:38.144000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,you buying no has just made me feel extremely woozy,decrease,decrease,True,True,2048.8152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..caf6026bb10293989e53cdd08597999a49e21b02 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T01:50:17.791000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"specifically for the sake of argument, let's say it was proven that a person made a persuasive claim and someone else he",hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:21:36.076000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,That’s not the relevant kind of guilty plea. This one is purely procedural. Look it up.,decrease,decrease,True,True,133.9738,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-07T04:19:28.316000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"According to a dream I had, Jimmy became a sokushinbutsu monk after Rosalynn died. So he'll make it to 107.",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T15:18:50.344000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,any reason to believe this other than rumours?,increase,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:53:18.901000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Obviously I don't think you're a ""tall supremacist"" if you believe that tall people are better at basketball than short ",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-26T23:40:55.712000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Why would he be in hospice without any health issues and how do you know he doesn't have any health issues?,increase,decrease,False,True,7484.4365,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",flip,decrease,False,True,7830.7591,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-05-18T16:39:44.791000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"well the social security actuarial table gives him a 50%ish chance, but he's already in hospice ffs",hold,decrease,False,True,2041.3959,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T16:23:39.491000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,The photos of him at the funeral were a downward update,flip,decrease,False,True,3957.0859,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:27:52.303000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,There is no singular guilty/not guilty plea. Imagine if there was some bombshell testimony at trial and the best strateg,flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:26:29.524000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,it literally can resolve NO? 😂,flip,increase,False,True,18899.0491,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:20:14.099000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"likely to crater if morning on the West Coast passes with no release. +I'll bet against this, anyone down?",increase,flip,False,True,46107.6938,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T20:48:36.764000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,But he said he loves his president and only wants to hunt down the minister of defense. He might want to get the place f,decrease,decrease,True,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:26:27.936000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"the Russians are lying! +It is incredible. The western media has, for years, been saying that the Russians are lying li",increase,decrease,False,True,2200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-09-24T01:35:28.128000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I think there are only two options. either he dies or he hits 100,hold,hold,True,True,160.7786,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-27T17:39:00.678000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Putin calls Wagner mutiny ""treason"" in televised address - YouTube +im slowly reading through the comments, but you aske",flip,decrease,False,True,15.4917,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:45:35.706000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,You clearly didn't see all the other markets created by gigacasting.,hold,hold,True,True,1974.1073,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T19:42:13.038000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I agree your reference class is better in theory, but there haven't actually been that many big CEOs. And some of them w",hold,increase,False,True,15084.5686,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:03:49.929000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Even if you're right, pleading guilty get him behind bars quicker +not pleading guilty --> ""house arrest"" in luxury for",flip,decrease,False,True,79.1095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T22:18:22.292000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,do you understand what the image means,increase,hold,False,True,4363.0952,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:02:44.943000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"so, for Yes on the market riot/insurgency is enough? How much (Just the order of magnitude) dead by Vagner hands is enou",decrease,decrease,True,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-08T01:11:25.543000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i would smoke so many cigarettes if it turns out they were waiting for the Sonnet Sunday,hold,hold,True,True,6640.1727,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-18T13:29:45.881000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Zoom, zoom, zoom. We're going to the moon.",increase,increase,True,True,12000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T19:07:09.829000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"YES +, anyone who's read his blog for a while knows that he often defends controversial positions like ""white supremacy""",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:24:10.227000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"This feels to hard to just be a test. Here is what Prigozhin said in his last rant: +"" +PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council m",decrease,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T04:02:34.424000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Counter point: Insiders likely already betting on a release,flip,decrease,False,True,28.5787,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:40:01.788000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Yeah I'm genuinely confused why the market is at 50% right now after that clarification +edit: and am aware that often t",increase,decrease,False,True,553.4045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T22:28:35.330000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,It’s over guys. BTC crashed and Sonnet was cancelled.,hold,increase,False,True,260.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-12-07T05:34:14.440000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Eyeballing it from actuarial tables ( +https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html +), seems about ~35% he dies in a ye",flip,decrease,False,True,35.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:49:50.646000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,cool source. Where is that from?,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T22:44:08.894000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Seems like Russia is taking it more seriously than Prigozhin's previous theatrics: +https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro",flip,decrease,False,True,13.8251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T07:43:52.049000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,I don't know how I could be any more clear that it has to do with power and not employment -- a fact which should be com,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T06:26:08.858000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Based on how people were betting in the past, why isn't this down at 80%? +(No of course it shouldn't be; but it shouldn",hold,decrease,False,True,1518.1944,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-17T21:16:14.447000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"If it used the most power in training, does that make it the most powerful 🤔",increase,hold,False,True,2300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T19:51:46.715000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"The intention is that you click on the number next to ""Max YES Payout"" and enter the amount of shares you wish to purcha",hold,hold,True,True,0.2679,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T18:17:25.023000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because that’s in his interest if he wants any chance of not spending the rest of his life behind bars?,flip,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:04:52.244000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I meant like the other side like I wanted you to put a yes limit but if you don’t feel comfortable, that’s fine",decrease,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:38:34.804000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I believe that most readers would understand the market question to require a coup attempt rather than a successful coup,decrease,hold,False,True,310.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:29:35.397000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,did the market creator agree to take terms though,increase,hold,False,True,41.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T00:27:03.377000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,this is adverse selection and I won’t stand for it,flip,decrease,False,True,6165.3593,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:39:14.267000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I feel like there's be a much stronger argument for your position if the question asked ""Will SBF plead not guilty?"" sin",increase,decrease,False,True,3200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-30T14:32:34.168000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,how are you leaning on resolution?,increase,hold,False,True,733.4045,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T00:27:52.654000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"just because of this, I’ll only sell you those shares back at 66%. No takesies-backsies",flip,decrease,False,True,6165.3593,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T12:21:30.968000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"See you at the next miss priced market: +https://manifold.markets/JCDM/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024?play=true + cu",hold,hold,True,True,2430.6167,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-07-11T23:51:02.950000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,At 99.8 years old he's living in his childhood home on a diet of homegrown vegetables and sleeping a lot. Probably stil,increase,increase,True,True,5736.8721,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T00:23:40.281000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"lmk if other ppl want to offload YES shares or buy more NO, I can probably find a good price",flip,hold,False,True,6165.3593,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T00:10:19.430000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Well if that is true this is a shit criteria imo.,hold,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T22:19:28.416000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"If anyone has a specific instance to share but is holding back because the incentives aren't high enough, I just added m",increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T03:42:26.445000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i appreciate the counterparties for believing in yourselves and wish you luck tomorrow,decrease,decrease,True,True,161384.4999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:33:51.434000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,at this point I think we're at an impasse and if you really feel you've been indisputably wronged here I recommend block,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:23:37.957000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"imagine you have a prediction market on whether joe passes ""his math test"". A week before his final exam, joe takes a pr",flip,hold,False,True,47.7594,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T17:55:51.860000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,may I ask... what gave you two the confidence to bet > half your net worths on this single question?,flip,decrease,False,True,9403.5074,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:26:23.076000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,True. But as a good classical utilitarian he should be good at intertemporal substitution and prefer fewer years behind ,flip,decrease,False,True,103.9002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T17:15:48.520000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I hate the fake AI leakers, always have. Finally a good time to bet against them.",increase,increase,True,True,2000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T20:10:22.678000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,What do you mean they’re not a thing? They definitely happen. Madoff was sentenced to 150 years. I don’t know what the o,flip,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T20:58:05.301000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"What odds, and will you send the emails?",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T04:01:01.865000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my m5k shares before the spike, very clean exit",flip,hold,False,True,28.5787,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-27T14:57:45.128000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,December doesn't feel like a good season to make a huge announcement. Spent another 1k on NO,decrease,increase,False,True,2637.1246,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T20:23:48.305000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I don't think you understand what ""white supremacy"" is.",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T04:04:24.752000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,I still believe. 5k at 25 limit up,hold,increase,False,True,15639.1078,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T05:56:21.059000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Even as a no trader who assumed this market was about a coup against the Russian government and not specifically against,decrease,decrease,True,True,65.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T13:00:39.386000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"out of curiosity, why the big switch?",hold,decrease,False,True,23926.2039,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T03:23:09.057000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I think the argument here is that he is ""normalizing"" racism. Eg, some people think it is okay to punch racists, because",decrease,decrease,True,True,1300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T02:49:24.600000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"It wasn't a coup attempt. It was just a military convoy, and the Russians making ostentatious announcement about what t",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T18:20:37.930000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"if you got any insider news don't say details, i think valve is canary trapping people",decrease,decrease,True,True,24829.5938,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-20T01:11:58.037000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,also as the biggest YES holder let me say that i was never big on any particular date in the first place other than some,decrease,decrease,True,True,25165.5938,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-07T21:05:00.838000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,might not be as good as Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4 or Gemini 2 Pro,increase,decrease,False,True,224.665,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:39:49.689000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I have now learned that the word I am looking for is insurrection,decrease,hold,False,True,600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:27:30.351000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"https://meduza.io/news/2023/06/23/v-tsentre-rostova-na-donu-zametili-bronetehniku +Police and Rosguardia on full alert i",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T05:34:55.072000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Was reasoning mode active on lmsys +I guess so but I don't think we know for sure. IMO at this point reasoning models sh",hold,decrease,False,True,6450.3333,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T15:28:36.716000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"no we're conducting an experiment on what % of manifold users actually look for evidence vs just bet on vibes. Congrats,",hold,hold,True,True,9544.998,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-01T16:04:22.509000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I set limit orders at 7% (YES) and 10% (NO). Happy to market make this. Feel free to put on positions.,increase,hold,False,True,17121.0494,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:59:51.039000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"""Wagner’s rebellious mercenary leader will move to Belarus under the terms of a truce agreed with President Putin, the K",decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T19:30:53.691000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"We come together to honor the life and legacy of a truly remarkable individual, Jimmy Carter. A man whose unwavering ded",increase,decrease,False,True,544.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T16:23:29.527000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"It seems disingenuous to pose the question, ‘At the time of its release, is Grok 3 plausibly the most powerful AI in the",hold,decrease,False,True,146.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-06T13:04:34.398000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,what is the correct proportion or amount of white supremacists reading a blog before you would agree the blog is a work ,decrease,decrease,True,True,1035.2822,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-12-01T01:00:40.655000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,And has been for many months. No health problems.,hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T14:32:20.992000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Grok 3 Reasoning Beta is far from finished, it's not even quite as good as Grok 3 mini Reasoning yet.",increase,decrease,False,True,3848.6845,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:35:27.126000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He doesn’t seem to listen to them.,hold,decrease,False,True,420.4694,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:10:03.764000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,im not disagreeing. i agree. its sorted out and wikipedia has decided it is officially not a coup.,decrease,flip,False,True,15.4917,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:17:16.771000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"if tomorrow or the day aftee Prigozhin has calmed down, this market will propably resolve negative.",decrease,decrease,True,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T18:50:32.628000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I will say I also feel like an idiot. I actually applied for a job with Valve recently for completely unrelated reasons ,hold,decrease,False,True,10198.2026,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-14T23:36:26.444000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,BROOOO lmfao i did not mean to entirely close my position 😭😭😭 i saw a tweet but had to take care of my dogs so i gave my,increase,decrease,False,True,116.8136,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:19:21.961000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"It's considered very common to enter an initial plea of not guilty, and then later plead guilty. Resolving this to NO ma",increase,increase,True,True,2450.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:13:02.934000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Some of y'all are featured here :-P +https://news.manifold.markets/p/forecasting-claude-leaks",flip,hold,False,True,103.9064,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:22:02.502000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"What?!?! When is the ""real"" guilty plea????",decrease,decrease,True,True,4276.3927,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:11:18.720000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"ah, what a bummer abt the v0 announcement 🤷‍♀️",flip,decrease,False,True,23515.1786,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:31:56.546000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"The market should stay open until either SBF pleads guilty to something, or he dies of old age! +Okay, I don't really be",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-22T00:30:52.413000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"80% sounds high given reports of his current condition, but this market is now probably close to fair (I'm buying NO bec",hold,decrease,False,True,1300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T20:05:01.474000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,The 7 year result was a lower bound based on the quotes people cited. It's quite possible it could have been higher if p,hold,decrease,False,True,69.6886,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:19:11.057000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"No, what would be fucked up is if this stays open waiting for him to change his plea. Create a new market about that if ",decrease,increase,False,True,2123.8475,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T21:17:06.826000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I've felt it's pretty likely for days, was just trying to get a better price but was struggling to get orders filled",hold,decrease,False,True,20703.6388,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-12T19:05:56.226000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,That is because he is INNOCENT,hold,increase,False,True,938.4027,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:27:24.929000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,the Orange Box was up there with Halo 2 as the greatest video game releases in history. Surely you’ve heard the lore,flip,hold,False,True,114.1025,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:05:06.716000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"A coup attempt is not a coup, just as attempted murder is not murder. This was most likely a demonstration of power to b",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-06T15:41:38.719000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Why is this not resolved to yes +https://wavespeed.ai/blog/posts/claude-sonnet-5-everything-we-know-about-anthropics-fen",decrease,increase,False,True,1170.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-05T01:35:32.311000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I'm happy that people have finally come around to my mindset, which is that SBF thinks he's smarter than everyone else a",flip,decrease,False,True,968.4027,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:26:17.164000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Otherwise resolves according to my gut feeling about this having been a coup or a false alarm. +I'm highly confident the",hold,hold,True,True,1597.0313,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:43:14.494000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Yes, so he might still plead guilty. Thanks for conceding that.",decrease,hold,False,True,183.9738,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..243cba84c54ef3aef4761e5dc47799c282a5a00a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,131 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:11:18.720000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"ah, what a bummer abt the v0 announcement 🤷‍♀️",flip,decrease,False,True,23515.1786,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T20:00:59.843000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I assume he would accept what his attorneys told him about the distribution of likely sentences on a guilty plea. I thin,increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T17:08:06.569000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"😂 that's cool! but I meant more like if your avg Yes share cost you x, and you wanted to sell 50% of them off at 1.5x, i",hold,decrease,False,True,73404.9892,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T22:05:57.807000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"to be clear, having spent a little more time, I totally accept I misunderstood the prediction. But it's a shame it was q",decrease,decrease,True,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-18T01:43:11.014000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,This market is correctly priced at roughly 80%,hold,hold,True,True,10133.9496,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T18:50:32.628000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I will say I also feel like an idiot. I actually applied for a job with Valve recently for completely unrelated reasons ,increase,decrease,False,True,10198.2026,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T20:58:50.257000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Technically yes but not for this market. The coup here will be defined as a significant amount of Russians fighting each,decrease,decrease,True,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T20:23:48.305000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I don't think you understand what ""white supremacy"" is.",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T02:34:46.172000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,There is no way it's better enough for a normal person to notice any difference,flip,increase,False,True,7820.2898,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T12:16:44.961000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I previously held a NO position because I was a doubter about pure scaling vs secret sauce reinforcement+training corpus,increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T22:44:08.894000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Seems like Russia is taking it more seriously than Prigozhin's previous theatrics: +https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro",flip,decrease,False,True,13.8251,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T00:01:41.351000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"ok, u get the bayesian price... this time",flip,hold,False,True,23696.7071,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:43:54.995000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I mean that is a series of links. If I come ack with a bunch does that mean it isn't,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-02T10:49:48.754000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,For reference if JC dies i’ll lose about 200M but I’ve made over 2000M in this market already from my YES limit orders,increase,decrease,False,True,476.9214,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-20T00:10:34.632000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"API access and the full set of benchmarks, at least.",flip,increase,False,True,1050.2029,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-04T22:54:20.784000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"contribution appreciated by me; I reply to continue your point, not to disagree, so feel free to let this pass, Jamie. m",hold,decrease,False,True,1.9657,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T19:13:50.494000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"it is unfathomable to describe any form of progress to half life 3, valve doing something ""quickly""",flip,increase,False,True,0.7287,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-02T11:32:08.274000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"This is 50% on polymarket, with even stricter rules on the name. Crazy times.",hold,decrease,False,True,800.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T04:02:01.767000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I think this use of the term ""normalize"" ends up being unhelpfully inclusive. If ""normalize"" partly means something lik",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-06T16:59:37.425000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Y'know, maybe this blog post is onto something: +https://wavespeed.ai/blog/posts/claude-sonnet-5-everything-we-know-abo",increase,decrease,False,True,970.064,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T16:23:29.527000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"It seems disingenuous to pose the question, ‘At the time of its release, is Grok 3 plausibly the most powerful AI in the",hold,decrease,False,True,146.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-01T16:04:22.509000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I set limit orders at 7% (YES) and 10% (NO). Happy to market make this. Feel free to put on positions.,increase,hold,False,True,17121.0494,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:10:03.424000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,They put up checkpoints all around Moscow Oblast. Just because they averted a widespread clash between mercs and gov't f,decrease,increase,False,True,310.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T20:10:22.678000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,What do you mean they’re not a thing? They definitely happen. Madoff was sentenced to 150 years. I don’t know what the o,flip,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T00:06:09.854000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,It might be good to sanity check with our own benchmarks. In case of shenanigans with the voting? Including perhaps peop,hold,decrease,False,True,36.6869,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:47:09.837000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I don't understand your comment. +"" +@Rederth + wie bot bogged down in a discussion about ""does a failed coup attempt st",increase,decrease,False,True,553.4045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:42:03.470000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I think most readers are biased as they invested in ""yes"" when things very much looked like a coup. The sudden resolutio",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T05:06:29.223000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Why in the world would he do that? Federal plea deals have no guarantee the judge will honor them and if that happens th,increase,increase,True,True,323.8475,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:37:55.826000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"if neither side considers it a couple, reporting doesn't call it that at the end of the day, then it could easily go in ",decrease,increase,False,True,41.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:31:56.546000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"The market should stay open until either SBF pleads guilty to something, or he dies of old age! +Okay, I don't really be",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:24:29.826000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Just like to say, Gee whiz am i glad I managed to get out of this market. I bought +'s explanation, but when I looked i",flip,flip,True,True,2544.0538,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-17T06:11:59.740000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,If we exclude reasoning models I don’t think this is unlikely just bc of scaling. Gemini 2 is likely cost optimised but ,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T14:01:56.367000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Madoff pled guilty without a plea deal and he got 150 years. Would be a blunder for SBF to do likewise. And he won’t get,increase,increase,True,True,1125.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-14T02:00:00.192000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,he had to be wheeled out from an ambulance...,hold,increase,False,True,379.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T17:29:09.352000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Sorry, if I post 10 links does that make your arguement stronger or weaker. There is a reason I'm not playing this never",hold,decrease,False,True,633.4045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T16:55:02.854000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,no and they deleted the tweet and a representative said the tweet was a lie lol,flip,flip,True,True,30436.1472,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:32:52.473000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Multiple leakers seem to be backtracking. I'm switching to Nothing Ever Happens,decrease,decrease,True,True,298.3545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T03:12:29.811000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"The market creator defines a coup differently: +I'd define coup as an armed insurgency aimed to replace any higher offic",increase,hold,False,True,4300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:06:54.256000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I am going to go fully insane if this is being counted as a coup while the big news of the evening are that a coup did i,decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-16T18:51:13.252000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I don't think that's a default response.,increase,decrease,False,True,48.6845,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-16T21:29:27.222000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"In his experience, he can talk people into anything, even while playing video games on the side. Of course he will plea",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T22:28:35.330000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,It’s over guys. BTC crashed and Sonnet was cancelled.,increase,increase,True,True,260.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T14:42:13.157000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,Would giving more cultural reach to Scott Alexander causally increase the influence of e.g. Richard Spencer? Or to Spenc,hold,decrease,False,True,69.6886,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T23:30:46.853000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i'll do more volume if you'd like,increase,increase,True,True,31636.5496,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-02T09:56:38.546000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my NO shares, I'll take my 1% profits. Lots of rumors going around still.",flip,decrease,False,True,28.5787,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-03-17T12:35:47.571000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Also, by this metric, anyone who believes something like ""systemic racism has led to black people scoring worse on intel",hold,decrease,False,True,69.6886,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:27:24.929000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,the Orange Box was up there with Halo 2 as the greatest video game releases in history. Surely you’ve heard the lore,flip,hold,False,True,114.1025,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:18:30.710000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Resolves early if there is widespread media consensus for either side. +Otherwise resolves according to my gut feeling a",increase,increase,True,True,400.0231,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:28:08.856000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I ended up taking 2k of Panfilo's limit at 51% and then posting another of my own at 60%, rather than eating straight in",flip,hold,False,True,5441.2943,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:43:16.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,This question was consistently above 50% while Putin to say in power never dropped below 70. Which suggests that the vas,decrease,decrease,True,True,310.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T01:22:30.133000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Mostly because I hadn’t read the news articles carefully enough and so failed to realize it was about the arraignment. I,flip,hold,False,True,103.9002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-19T17:53:11.049000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Will he play video games while testifying in his own defense? https://manifold.markets/TeddyWeverka/will-sbf-be-playing,flip,hold,False,True,15.2605,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:15:35.329000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"not a coup according to the expert +https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672689832462614529?cxt=HHwWgoC8tcqiy7YuAAAA",decrease,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:49:59.957000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"still, announcing before the season is good and lets them have preorders set up to build excitement. a slip that says ""y",increase,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T18:44:30.297000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I also just know bandors is gonna screw me here. like he made a market about HL3 and then after I sank a few thousand we,flip,decrease,False,True,5000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T04:02:09.389000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Something to keep in mind as odds vary wildly based on barely any evidence: +Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer",flip,decrease,False,True,123.9793,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T18:02:11.208000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"hahaha best use of this gif + there have been a LOT of examples of way too much hype before model launches. Model launch",hold,decrease,False,True,42599.4441,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-25T03:50:30.277000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"https://youtu.be/MMYsEJ-vZaQ?si=K1nnUnVgRf36qisS + this kid is probably going to college",increase,hold,False,True,17.61,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-23T14:36:07.446000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Take a look at the full quote silly billy!!! This is how people are looking at the spreadsheets, full of the spirit but ",hold,decrease,False,True,64726.1841,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T05:02:28.794000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Is there any way this resolves no given this: +“Grok-3 is: + - First-ever model to break 1400 score! +- #1 across all c",decrease,decrease,True,True,1475.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:04:20.625000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"So are we going by today or by whether he takes a plea deal or...? I forecasted based on what he would do today, but per",decrease,decrease,True,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T20:56:59.277000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,Wanna bet? We can try sending similar-sounding emails to a handful of people that we feel confident wouldn't have promot,hold,decrease,False,True,69.6886,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T23:39:48.947000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Yeah, it's more or less as conclusive as a yes could practiably be",decrease,increase,False,True,298.4339,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:14:03.247000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,. I often get the feeling that we spend much energy on quabbeling about the boundaries of nebulous concepts. I think wh,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-03T01:32:52.510000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Plenty of time to buy YES later when it becomes even more likely.,increase,hold,False,True,930.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-26T16:53:18.970000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,most 99 year olds are not in hospice,increase,hold,False,True,7484.4365,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:04:52.244000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I meant like the other side like I wanted you to put a yes limit but if you don’t feel comfortable, that’s fine",decrease,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:48:33.706000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Here is a video of surovikin. +Translation by Dmitri @wartranslated +""I have just returned by the order of the Ministr",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-17T23:32:40.370000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,iT WILL HAPPEN. iT'S HAPPENING. iT'S GOING TO HAPPEN BEFORE DECEMBER 31ST 2025 AND HERE'S WHY YOU'RE ALL WRONG FOR DOUBT,hold,increase,False,True,5983.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:26:27.936000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"the Russians are lying! +It is incredible. The western media has, for years, been saying that the Russians are lying li",increase,decrease,False,True,2200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-30T15:23:02.596000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I don't believe either will happen, but I'm trying to decide what would be funnier for this market's comments section: +",hold,hold,True,True,550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T05:32:29.814000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I don’t dispute the lmsys scores are impressive, but it was my understanding reasoning models wouldn’t be included. Was ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-25T00:33:06.847000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now? +Rumors are going round that Wagner units are attempting a coup against the russi",increase,hold,False,True,3600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T08:26:29.017000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"i made an assumption about your motivations, but if you want to have a discussion you're welcome to engage seriously wit",hold,hold,True,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:33:25.256000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"From + article ""A defendant can usually change a not-guilty plea at some later point in the proceedings, but the same g",decrease,hold,False,True,4276.3927,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8inxpv5vhk,2024-08-14T20:36:04.099000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Seeing how good Grok 2 is makes me think it will at be on par with 3.5 Opus and whichever models OpenAI and GDM release ,hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:36:57.289000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"we haven't been over 50% in a month. But yeah, I'm like you. I initially thought SBF had enough sense to strike a deal, ",decrease,decrease,True,True,2215.3972,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T16:15:24.901000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,This market needs the N/A resolution due to the various discrepancies we are seeing in it. Please I am begging you for i,hold,decrease,False,True,76853.8034,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-26T21:34:37.494000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,With apologies to anyone that has eyes,increase,decrease,False,True,2500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T11:05:16.570000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Kinda arb, but not really the same question:",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-16T21:49:32.930000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"We should launch a related question: Will SBF take the witness stand? +https://manifold.markets/TeddyWeverka/will-sbf",flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T14:27:14.005000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"news is not public yet, will comment when it's announced.",decrease,hold,False,True,54791.2418,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:45:21.171000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"‘might’ was key, and I was truly unsure. Then I researched it more and updated my view. I shouldn’t have called you lazy",decrease,increase,False,True,183.9738,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T19:58:03.451000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,IOW a few minutes ago was a good time to but YES!,flip,flip,True,True,103.9002,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:03:29.920000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,part of the fun of it tbh. a little conflict of interest to navigate,flip,decrease,False,True,5441.2943,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-20T16:36:53.434000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,His active trades are probably limit orders executing.,increase,hold,False,True,3469.7989,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:23:25.895000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"It also seems likely that Claude Opus 4.6 +will be released this month +, +not far behind Sonnet 5 +, with ~70% odds o",flip,decrease,False,True,46107.6938,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T00:53:12.075000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Question -- would someone who is in favor of, say, exclusionary zoning, which was explicitly used with the specific inte",increase,decrease,False,True,280.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-31T23:25:00.679000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"If you'd like to keep gambl-err, betting, my market on HL3 by EOY 2030 is at 83% +https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/wil",hold,hold,True,True,38390.5874,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T01:43:40.819000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Do not talk down to me like this. It is disgusting acting like this against me, you are all ganging up to make the fun a",hold,hold,True,True,76853.8034,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T14:59:08.321000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Fool me a dozen times, shame on you.",decrease,increase,False,True,28.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:20:14.099000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"likely to crater if morning on the West Coast passes with no release. +I'll bet against this, anyone down?",flip,flip,True,True,46107.6938,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-04-28T11:12:18.040000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Please not that argument again,hold,decrease,False,True,570.4694,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-04T18:34:50.418000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Don't worry, I heard it'll be announced tomorrow",hold,increase,False,True,5650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:33:14.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,there was an attempted coup which failed,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:37:04.603000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Even that is based on assumptions. According to both sides that's not the case. The only reason people think this was a ,decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:03:49.929000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Even if you're right, pleading guilty get him behind bars quicker +not pleading guilty --> ""house arrest"" in luxury for",flip,decrease,False,True,79.1095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T15:40:17.573000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"a year of low volume and middling odds, to 2%, to the mid-high 90s has to be one of the craziest swings here like the bi",decrease,decrease,True,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T20:00:15.370000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I don't think it makes sense to announce it in December if it launches with the Steam Machine. They could wait until nex,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..bfa985c890f37393cedeeb57dab5c84212bc0a2b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.05852472073181233,0.02154439380385299,-0.03698032692795934,DOWN,0.8450590215737334,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.8108291449981105,0.758939351922955,-0.05188979307515551,DOWN,0.6787323971768372,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,17,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.5056865790722129,0.4054721976074775,-0.10021438146473544,DOWN,0.4533702353686796,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will SBF plead guilty?,15,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.4054721976074775,0.5098363422657924,0.10436414465831495,UP,0.7323439344438094,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will SBF plead guilty?,15,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.6459252765503187,0.8261440692015922,0.1802187926512735,UP,0.41362620861324045,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.5550147284995441,0.7816709377040602,0.226656209204516,UP,0.7185210922512614,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,33,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.07861703705829211,0.06427909458868183,-0.014337942469610274,DOWN,0.4062567359121315,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,14,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.5737225333492227,0.6115872784990364,0.03786474514981364,UP,0.43174952209010575,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,17,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.6567186897109905,0.30083610106642245,-0.355882588644568,DOWN,0.4730802392562882,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will SBF plead guilty?,15,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.8261440692015922,0.7959541162643201,-0.030189952937272113,DOWN,0.11135950765152335,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.7476151477127279,0.782016975436484,0.03440182772375611,UP,0.7435562349419514,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,12,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.5773167005947849,0.29069419647413325,-0.28662250412065166,DOWN,0.7694177466538998,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f6cf0d87b33596feee2d2d0844669ccf12670a38 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.7104024248197375,0.7723940978373826,0.06199167301764508,UP,0.6921590956064342,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,52,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.029908388500221067,0.009720030351470975,-0.020188358148750092,DOWN,0.9267678675893495,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.6572716478588192,0.6644466911871155,0.007175043328296327,UP,0.6866240366433882,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will SBF plead guilty?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.7010560626033652,0.8569619979069997,0.1559059353036345,UP,0.6631515505809646,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,19,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.24266940203715626,0.2940857371233967,0.05141633508624044,UP,0.1771650994594666,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,13,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.5538564483251491,0.7167889878559381,0.162932539530789,UP,0.633244714786369,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,26,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.5130012925625982,0.5450237184478006,0.03202242588520243,UP,0.7674233863214058,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,23,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.7967329883638848,0.7282678817605057,-0.06846510660337912,DOWN,0.9551556341265434,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.610849709775738,0.6359574353332057,0.025107725557467653,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,4,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.6591300288863364,0.6644713434157832,0.00534131452944675,UP,0.9225754601436188,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will SBF plead guilty?,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.5568427713384194,0.6083504639134812,0.051507692575061825,UP,0.5254305161125131,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,35,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.46759056925437825,0.5486907825696192,0.08110021331524098,UP,0.054896183544616436,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will SBF plead guilty?,79,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..79dcfcae7d4358ac4122b79c7760005aa4d8d32e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:55:47.286000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,I also want to note that the question only means anything if we use the daily updates or some permanent link. The real-t,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T10:34:00.836000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"The market thinks you're leaning toward yes, your questions and statements also lead me to think you're leaning on the I",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:23:31.997000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I think what's quite telling is that circa 2000, Ehud Barak offered the Palestinians a state and $30B in reparations (to",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T04:19:34.423000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I know how famines are defined. You may not have read this far, but there's three criteria for a famine: 30% of children",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-01-18T10:22:11.903000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"By sustained combat effort, do you mean war?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T04:52:19.214000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Did you run a search to see what Israel is saying about this or do you take what Al Jazeera and Human Rights Watch feed ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-20T11:04:36.525000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"> Quote-tweets are just retweets wearing a hat +ok but they kinda cooked with this one",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T15:14:45.607000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"No they don't, you read the chart wrong. Those are percentages for Haredim (Ultra-Orthodox), not Israelis overall.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-21T15:36:09.832000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"The IDF's 99th Division is composed of: +The 900th ""Kfir"" armored infantry brigade +The 888th ""Refaim"" combined special ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T12:38:10.374000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I bought yes within 10 minutes of this market existing,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T22:13:18.975000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Changed from what? I added some concrete examples to make it +less + subjective. Prior to these examples, it was just """,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sC8sAuztlN,2025-06-14T07:47:13.258000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"I have 1000 bucks on ""NO"". I so damn hope to loose them.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T23:05:41.836000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Sorry, I should've looked better before giving a dismissive response. The sentence which said the US ""runs"" the lab was ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T18:07:48.223000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"yep, that's my thinking too and that's why I bought more shares",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-13T11:47:57.616000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Fairly promising start to the offensive, but in the end, Ukraine has just gone a few kilometers, and there is still a ve",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T01:59:20.350000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Given an equal lives value system, if killing 60,000 Palestinians prevents less than 60K*5K=300M dollars of damage to Is",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2022-11-25T12:51:46.200000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? +, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on ar",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-04-25T02:42:48.473000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"Went to Reuters after reading the attached tweet. After reading the article, opened Twitter and blocked the guy. Absolut",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:08:11.434000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Both are actual propaganda. ChatGPT is used to advance the false narrative and generate misleading content. I'm not sure,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T13:45:10.657000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,basically following up on comments on this market I entered the youtube rabbit hole of settler VS Palestinian confrontat,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-13T10:27:58.470000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"I'm happy with my current position now so don't plan on selling further. +My reasons for selling what I did sell: +1.) T",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:10:02.888000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"I suppose you mean the interactive map here +https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 + st",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T13:50:54.849000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The Shujaiyeh neighborhood in eastern Gaza City is Hamas' last remaining stronghold in the northern Gaza Strip and the s,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-29T08:31:48.155000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"That one leaves it open till 2030, this one only until this conflict ends. Could be a factor. Also I feel the reliabilit",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T23:31:27.461000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm done with that strategy already, that's why I switched to NO. I've been holding NO for a long time. But you know wha",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-04T14:27:54.091000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,I don’t gain anything from any of this. I gain literally $M 1 per new unique trader. Not worth ruining my reputation ove,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:21:50.786000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"so, israel should accept the deal take hostages, leave and the story will be over, correct?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T09:27:50.034000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"If Gaza is good and all arabs support it, why is there an uncrossable border between Egypt and Gaza? +Seems like Egypt w",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T15:12:53.769000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,Naaah I trust you. I'll bet $10 you bet $150?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:21:02.003000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"If someone would make that list, I'll be happy to award a bounty for it and put it in the description",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T17:32:20.288000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"How is eradication a threat? +Israel wants peace! They never would have started a war against Gaza if it wasn't for Hama",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:47:10.664000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"the Haaretz article says it was a representative sample. (Thanks for the paywall bypass) +The poll was conducted during ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:16:15.786000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"1. I believe first point is completely invalid. +This is something like ""time self sampling"". How do we know, that Hamas",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-27T21:30:11.181000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The odds on this market could change dramatically if the IDF captures the Rafah crossing. And they're really not that fa,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-15T03:11:06.203000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Biden administration is sending $1 billion more in weapons to Israel ( +Associated Press +) +https://www.timesofisrael.c",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-08T07:42:15.085000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"yeah, I hold yes too, for me this should resolve any time now. Looks like he is reading us and updating the market now, ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4fd9ccc0395290466f8e2b702a651b2735fa7fe3 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T04:19:34.423000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I know how famines are defined. You may not have read this far, but there's three criteria for a famine: 30% of children",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:23:31.997000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I think what's quite telling is that circa 2000, Ehud Barak offered the Palestinians a state and $30B in reparations (to",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-01-18T10:22:11.903000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"By sustained combat effort, do you mean war?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-21T15:36:09.832000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"The IDF's 99th Division is composed of: +The 900th ""Kfir"" armored infantry brigade +The 888th ""Refaim"" combined special ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T15:14:45.607000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"No they don't, you read the chart wrong. Those are percentages for Haredim (Ultra-Orthodox), not Israelis overall.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:55:47.286000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,I also want to note that the question only means anything if we use the daily updates or some permanent link. The real-t,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T10:34:00.836000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"The market thinks you're leaning toward yes, your questions and statements also lead me to think you're leaning on the I",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sC8sAuztlN,2025-06-14T07:47:13.258000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"I have 1000 bucks on ""NO"". I so damn hope to loose them.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T22:13:18.975000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Changed from what? I added some concrete examples to make it +less + subjective. Prior to these examples, it was just """,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T04:52:19.214000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Did you run a search to see what Israel is saying about this or do you take what Al Jazeera and Human Rights Watch feed ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T18:07:48.223000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"yep, that's my thinking too and that's why I bought more shares",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2022-11-25T12:51:46.200000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? +, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on ar",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T12:38:10.374000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I bought yes within 10 minutes of this market existing,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T23:05:41.836000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Sorry, I should've looked better before giving a dismissive response. The sentence which said the US ""runs"" the lab was ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-20T11:04:36.525000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"> Quote-tweets are just retweets wearing a hat +ok but they kinda cooked with this one",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:08:11.434000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Both are actual propaganda. ChatGPT is used to advance the false narrative and generate misleading content. I'm not sure,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-13T11:47:57.616000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Fairly promising start to the offensive, but in the end, Ukraine has just gone a few kilometers, and there is still a ve",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T01:59:20.350000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Given an equal lives value system, if killing 60,000 Palestinians prevents less than 60K*5K=300M dollars of damage to Is",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:10:02.888000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"I suppose you mean the interactive map here +https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 + st",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-04-25T02:42:48.473000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"Went to Reuters after reading the attached tweet. After reading the article, opened Twitter and blocked the guy. Absolut",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T17:32:20.288000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"How is eradication a threat? +Israel wants peace! They never would have started a war against Gaza if it wasn't for Hama",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T13:45:10.657000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,basically following up on comments on this market I entered the youtube rabbit hole of settler VS Palestinian confrontat,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-08T07:42:15.085000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"yeah, I hold yes too, for me this should resolve any time now. Looks like he is reading us and updating the market now, ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T13:50:54.849000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The Shujaiyeh neighborhood in eastern Gaza City is Hamas' last remaining stronghold in the northern Gaza Strip and the s,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:21:50.786000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"so, israel should accept the deal take hostages, leave and the story will be over, correct?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T23:31:27.461000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm done with that strategy already, that's why I switched to NO. I've been holding NO for a long time. But you know wha",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-29T08:31:48.155000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"That one leaves it open till 2030, this one only until this conflict ends. Could be a factor. Also I feel the reliabilit",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-13T10:27:58.470000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"I'm happy with my current position now so don't plan on selling further. +My reasons for selling what I did sell: +1.) T",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T15:12:53.769000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,Naaah I trust you. I'll bet $10 you bet $150?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T09:27:50.034000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"If Gaza is good and all arabs support it, why is there an uncrossable border between Egypt and Gaza? +Seems like Egypt w",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:16:15.786000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"1. I believe first point is completely invalid. +This is something like ""time self sampling"". How do we know, that Hamas",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:21:02.003000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"If someone would make that list, I'll be happy to award a bounty for it and put it in the description",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:47:10.664000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"the Haaretz article says it was a representative sample. (Thanks for the paywall bypass) +The poll was conducted during ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-04T14:27:54.091000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,I don’t gain anything from any of this. I gain literally $M 1 per new unique trader. Not worth ruining my reputation ove,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-15T03:11:06.203000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Biden administration is sending $1 billion more in weapons to Israel ( +Associated Press +) +https://www.timesofisrael.c",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-27T21:30:11.181000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The odds on this market could change dramatically if the IDF captures the Rafah crossing. And they're really not that fa,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0d63c4d103d3512eec94374183ebf170abe53f85 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,157 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-11T18:56:36.138000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,From the IDF Spokesperson's Unit:,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T13:36:24.202000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"now that DALLE3 is being released via the api, we can confirm soon.",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T18:28:51.529000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"So far the only people out of work are translators and Wikipedia. +actually +and",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-15T19:00:01.110000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I think it would be practically guaranteed by 2030, but as of now does seem to be unlikely. +Though some groups have spo",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:55:47.286000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,I also want to note that the question only means anything if we use the daily updates or some permanent link. The real-t,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T13:56:34.549000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Media is not the only source. Information that helps: +Direct evidence and indicators that would support or contradict N",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T21:24:11.818000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I don't think that ground intervention will always be called occupation. I certainly wouldn't always call it occupation.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T09:21:10.513000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Have seen couple claims Israel is apartheid. But it seems that the only argument is some string in their constitution or,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-13T10:27:58.470000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"I'm happy with my current position now so don't plan on selling further. +My reasons for selling what I did sell: +1.) T",NO,NO,True,True,25807.6419,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:21:50.786000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"so, israel should accept the deal take hostages, leave and the story will be over, correct?",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-08T07:42:15.085000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"yeah, I hold yes too, for me this should resolve any time now. Looks like he is reading us and updating the market now, ",YES,YES,True,True,900.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T05:37:46.746000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Don't uncritically accept either, but GHF has all the text messages. +https://x.com/GBNT1952/status/1950874165541834943",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T13:38:28.639000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Because any definition is situational, I've tried to specify the criteria that seem best to me for actual operational co",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-13T11:47:57.616000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Fairly promising start to the offensive, but in the end, Ukraine has just gone a few kilometers, and there is still a ve",NO,NO,True,True,109.4727,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-01-18T10:22:11.903000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"By sustained combat effort, do you mean war?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:12:31.788000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"is your main point, that blockade +should + be lifted?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:08:11.434000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Both are actual propaganda. ChatGPT is used to advance the false narrative and generate misleading content. I'm not sure,YES,YES,True,True,11110.3503,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T11:33:59.994000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,i never fully accept a conclusion from an international authority. A report has to contain all the logical steps and for,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T18:37:36.613000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,The difference between a couple of bombardments and a bombardment campaign,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T16:55:41.988000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I allow possibility that they did not know specifics of the attack. ""Our army has managed to conduct operation on their ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-17T04:44:26.657000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Since we're talking about it, I found this essay interesting, by Ze'ev Jabotinsky in 1923. No idea if he's correct or no",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-04-12T21:21:50.693000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"To be clear, this resolves NO if the invasion begins in April, right?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T04:19:34.423000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I know how famines are defined. You may not have read this far, but there's three criteria for a famine: 30% of children",NO,NO,True,True,118.1571,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:01:59.423000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Hamas are able to recruit new people, how ""eradicating terrorists"" is even possible? Hamas is a meme (in original sense ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-10-30T02:19:52.193000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,insane to me that this was ever over 10%,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T22:13:18.975000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Changed from what? I added some concrete examples to make it +less + subjective. Prior to these examples, it was just """,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,97.0394,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-23T15:49:26.769000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Something interesting I've noticed that makes one wonder about what we really know of the ground situation in Gaza: the ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-10-07T17:11:51.071000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,My prediction is that there will be a lot of argument over how this market should resolve,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:30:17.779000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"languages are not based on emotions, so they are weaker memes.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-21T02:29:10.462000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Scale of the destruction in Gaza based on satellite imagery.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T13:11:55.882000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Its easy to be/seem logical while also being in the wrong. If Hamas ceased fighting for their lives, they would also con",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T09:27:50.034000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"If Gaza is good and all arabs support it, why is there an uncrossable border between Egypt and Gaza? +Seems like Egypt w",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T13:50:54.849000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The Shujaiyeh neighborhood in eastern Gaza City is Hamas' last remaining stronghold in the northern Gaza Strip and the s,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T15:14:45.607000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"No they don't, you read the chart wrong. Those are percentages for Haredim (Ultra-Orthodox), not Israelis overall.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T08:48:41.485000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Which territory did they retain control of?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-30T12:58:25.214000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"The USSR was dominated by Russia, of course, so your point is rather pedantic. Also find it funny that you assume I'm no",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T23:31:27.461000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm done with that strategy already, that's why I switched to NO. I've been holding NO for a long time. But you know wha",NO,NO,True,True,3179.8095,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-21T16:20:05.673000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The IDF's 36th Division continues its clearing operations.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T16:02:02.229000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Thanks for your participation. That is completely reasonable to value your time more than to spend time educating me.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T12:06:58.171000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"see, here is what market is for. I did not have any information about settlers kicking locals out.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:16:15.786000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"1. I believe first point is completely invalid. +This is something like ""time self sampling"". How do we know, that Hamas",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T08:38:03.881000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Actually slight correction, the pin on the map is put on the tall building itself, the person is standing to the east of",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:10:02.888000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"I suppose you mean the interactive map here +https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 + st",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T19:20:59.309000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,Probably longer and have a clear strategic goal. Launching rockets randomly into Israel has been a pastime for a while.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-07-31T19:16:25.699000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"https://youtu.be/REoVXbmyN5s?si=v4UorDy-KTIvADBR + Bernie demands to stop supporting Israel. Shows couple photographs.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-30T23:51:43.417000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Yes I'm sorry it was clearly a mistake but at least you'll get your mana back in a few hours (barring a divine intervent,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-21T15:36:09.832000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"The IDF's 99th Division is composed of: +The 900th ""Kfir"" armored infantry brigade +The 888th ""Refaim"" combined special ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T01:59:20.350000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Given an equal lives value system, if killing 60,000 Palestinians prevents less than 60K*5K=300M dollars of damage to Is",YES,NO,False,True,900.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:40:31.956000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I think there are two answers that are both correct. (I don't see my job as to defend one side or the other, just answer",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T10:34:00.836000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"The market thinks you're leaning toward yes, your questions and statements also lead me to think you're leaning on the I",NO,NO,True,True,290.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-06T11:29:04.465000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,it worked with west bank. The organised hatecrime/terror groups have mostly disappeared in west bank. I see the storylin,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-01-03T16:59:24.387000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,Under Israel? I don’t understand.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-20T11:04:36.525000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"> Quote-tweets are just retweets wearing a hat +ok but they kinda cooked with this one",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T12:38:10.374000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I bought yes within 10 minutes of this market existing,YES,YES,True,True,30.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T13:13:28.814000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,", this prediction market has a very specific question to answer: 'Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-17T20:40:11.652000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,It is clear by now ukraine will win. The banned troll is always and forevermore victorious.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2022-11-25T12:51:46.200000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? +, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on ar",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-18T15:36:50.290000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,contradictory claims. It's up to isw to decide. It's said the railway line is the front line. If the station is the east,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-06T00:45:21.201000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I appreciate that you acknowledge you're not the most knowledgeable on this topic, so I hope I can share some informatio",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T21:19:22.307000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,I remember seeing it like this at least an hour earlier than the screenshot post but wasn't sure if it will be the whole,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T20:15:35.639000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"so what is the point of holding both types of hostages? +Also, why Israel side is so sure their people are still alive ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-04T14:27:54.091000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,I don’t gain anything from any of this. I gain literally $M 1 per new unique trader. Not worth ruining my reputation ove,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-25T23:55:39.672000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"that’s just the title, the full statement is more like “If anyone builds it using anything like current methods & level ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T23:05:41.836000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Sorry, I should've looked better before giving a dismissive response. The sentence which said the US ""runs"" the lab was ",NO,NO,True,True,1972.8835,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sC8sAuztlN,2025-06-14T07:47:13.258000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"I have 1000 bucks on ""NO"". I so damn hope to loose them.",NO,NO,True,True,1000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-15T03:11:06.203000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Biden administration is sending $1 billion more in weapons to Israel ( +Associated Press +) +https://www.timesofisrael.c",YES,YES,True,True,11500.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:15:31.414000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"""polls of Palestinians show close to 3/4 support for October 7."" How a reasonable poll can be conducted if nobody of the",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T08:27:20.304000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,It's also a pretty strong implication that the claims about the station being controlled by the Russians are true becaus,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:21:02.003000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"If someone would make that list, I'll be happy to award a bounty for it and put it in the description",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:47:10.664000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"the Haaretz article says it was a representative sample. (Thanks for the paywall bypass) +The poll was conducted during ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,30.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-26T16:42:41.060000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"In the current campaign, according to the State Department, the Russian companies intend to commission articles through ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-09T16:59:39.482000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Israel just has some form of racial Apartheid basically everywhere. Local municipalities in Israel have admissions commi,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-04T15:04:13.575000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"A third Israeli division has just entered Gaza, to the south. That makes three IDF divisions currently in Gaza.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:23:31.997000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I think what's quite telling is that circa 2000, Ehud Barak offered the Palestinians a state and $30B in reparations (to",YES,YES,True,True,150.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:35:33.960000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The goal isn't to eliminate every single member of Hamas or person who wants to join Hamas. The goal is to complete remo,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T19:34:53.976000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,companies are providing ~ 1million tokens from mixtral at ... $0.00 lol. it's free.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T04:41:00.506000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"How does the international community (entities like the UN, but also other individual countries) assessing the situation",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-11-16T06:45:34.255000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"40% of Gaza City battalions only, not all Hamas troops.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-16T18:50:53.661000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Feel free to contribute on more specifics as to what the criteria should be.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-12T12:16:42.828000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Israeli operations in southern Gaza:,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T08:39:37.040000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Man, the French Resistance didn’t get that memo at all. They must have been completely ineffective. +Billy Bowlegs must",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T03:46:13.165000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"It sounds like they would most likely be guarding Kursk, which wouldn't count for this market.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-25T20:38:51.208000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Read something interesting related to the general question of states using AI: +China starting to offer officially-endor",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:04:19.445000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"you seem to be faking the map now, well done jack. +There was no update posted today as you can see here. +https://twitt",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-04T14:17:50.518000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,Nothing was “stated later.” You just didn’t bother reading the actual market description. Hope you don’t do the same wit,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-08T20:03:22.010000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"Y’all should nominate your markets here to be showcased: +https://manifold.markets/Austin/manifold-may-showcase-will-25-",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-14T21:05:01.897000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,Less than 0.5 km now between the closest red region and Bakhmut station.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T17:50:40.346000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"it was from their Twitter if I recall, it might be taken down.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:40:23.141000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Yeah, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC, a high risk of famine persists across Gaza",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T13:58:17.867000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Sorry, i will not pay to view every page that will apear here. 63% is significant, i wish i could read the article, but ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T17:32:20.288000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"How is eradication a threat? +Israel wants peace! They never would have started a war against Gaza if it wasn't for Hama",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T00:30:19.948000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,the Israeli Arabs are the same culture and people as the people of Gaza but live just fine in peace with the Jews of Isr,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-27T19:10:40.528000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The fact that they don't have tunnel infrastructure in an area is really a game changer it seems.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T23:13:55.186000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"It's now past 1am on January 1st, 2024 in Gaza. So I'm going to resolve the market.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T18:07:48.223000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"yep, that's my thinking too and that's why I bought more shares",YES,YES,True,True,431.8622,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-03-14T20:04:17.128000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-said-to-deny-lebanese-report-on-march-15-war-ultimatum/ + IDF denies th",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:26:47.428000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"the updates are published 5pm EDT every day which means they simply didn't publish today. +There are conflicting reports",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T19:49:35.822000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The common sense reasoning is screaming at me ""Yes, of course this has happened"". But that's what the common sense reaso",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-04-25T02:42:48.473000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"Went to Reuters after reading the attached tweet. After reading the article, opened Twitter and blocked the guy. Absolut",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-11-19T03:07:37.628000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Israel, Hamas reach tentative deal to pause conflict, free some hostages +Under the terms of the U.S.-brokered deal, Isr",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T15:12:53.769000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,Naaah I trust you. I'll bet $10 you bet $150?,YES,NO,False,True,3030.8258,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-29T08:31:48.155000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"That one leaves it open till 2030, this one only until this conflict ends. Could be a factor. Also I feel the reliabilit",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T20:00:56.518000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"in the last two days i have seen like 3 articles saying that hamas popularity dropped, and 2 saying it grows. +All 5 see",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-10T09:46:37.811000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,A leaked video showing Palestinian men in their underwear throwing weapons into a pile before being taken into Israeli c,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-11-16T11:10:39.982000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"""Naming the neighbourhoods of Khuzaa, Abassan, Bani Suhaila and al-Qarara"" +So approximately",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T22:19:18.448000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Same thing, what matters to me is whether the supply of essential services is controlled by Hamas or not, not whether th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T04:52:19.214000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Did you run a search to see what Israel is saying about this or do you take what Al Jazeera and Human Rights Watch feed ,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-14T21:32:48.626000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"The IDF has tens of thousands of soldiers in Gaza, so it's not as disproportionate as it might seem at first glance.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-12T12:17:12.068000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Israeli operations in northern Gaza:,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T12:34:23.520000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Yes, I know what I wrote in the description that you misunderstood. I'm not referring to the well-being of the populatio",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-27T21:30:11.181000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The odds on this market could change dramatically if the IDF captures the Rafah crossing. And they're really not that fa,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T18:18:17.655000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"my ""position"" will be formed by the end of the month. +1=yes, 2=yes, 3=no, 4=invalid, 5= no idea.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-07-11T21:21:59.431000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,Too vague to be meaningful. Arent rockets combat operations already?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-24T11:37:03.572000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Yeah, I’m not surprised to see people falling for fake news but the “mercenaries” thing is especially ridiculous.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T14:23:52.563000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"let's assume that israeli are a killer nation, and make the next discussion step. Is there evidence that they provoked h",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T13:45:10.657000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,basically following up on comments on this market I entered the youtube rabbit hole of settler VS Palestinian confrontat,NO,NO,True,True,1.1838,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-12T08:41:53.758000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Probably a few weeks? It's hard to say. The collapse process can last as long as they have strongholds with high concent,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T10:02:32.325000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"i agree, that ""it is not official famine yet"" is not enough to resolve as Yes. Why would you think so? +I question both",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b7431f8ff7c39580bff7ec97b33a6d8233eef370 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,216 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T18:41:13.863000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,I have created a different question that hopefully gets at the spirt of the question while having a less ambiguous resol,decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-03T18:31:58.215000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Is it not + who is reasoning from price? Or are you just replying to my comment?",decrease,hold,False,True,845.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-13T15:49:38.652000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,some colour to your current views would be helpful,hold,hold,True,True,38566.4505,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-29T13:17:19.796000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"True, but that's why we have neutral observers and they seem very skeptical. We're nowhere near 90%, right now, based on",increase,decrease,False,True,872.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T19:02:02.631000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Assuming those are new tunnels and not some of the structures left behind by the IDF in the 80's, maybe one of them lead",decrease,decrease,True,True,1599.6767,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:06:26.655000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"true, while ""the parliament"" is a place where elected representatives pass laws, make political decisions, and +oversee",flip,decrease,False,True,162.1002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T20:28:42.104000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,the results have been verified. Resolve as yes,decrease,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T05:23:30.161000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"In fact, correction, ""wired for computers."" Not computers, but a room predisposed for computers. They found a bunker out",increase,decrease,False,True,1003.624,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:29:35.197000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Any thoughts so far? The suspense is killing me,decrease,hold,False,True,13035.3503,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-31T21:40:40.340000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Shouldn’t the “Hanania is an absolute contrarian wildcard” people think this is closer to 50/50?,hold,decrease,False,True,982.6266,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:04:46.263000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I think this market is specifically about evidence that is additional to claims by Israeli intelligence, and it is impli",flip,hold,False,True,7792.6235,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:16:46.102000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"OK, lots of talk about Synthesia, trying to narrow this down a bit more. +I found a propaganda video right on the Synthe",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:56:28.021000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66727459 +maybe this was posted before (sry didnt look through 222 comments) +but I ",flip,decrease,False,True,90.3719,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-10T19:21:30.693000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"From other than a VICE article: +https://phys.org/news/2023-08-smoking-gun-evidence-gravity-gaia-wide.html",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-22T16:23:44.687000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-22/us-push-for-release-of-hostages-delays-israeli-ground-war-but-won-t-s,flip,increase,False,True,270.0156,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:46:14.803000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You replied in two places so I'll just respond in the one place. This is not a defense of Israel because I agree with ev,flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T21:10:50.563000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Since the sand was placed there there hasnt been access through that point. While technically the market should resolve ,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-07-15T03:06:46.034000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Like why not show video of the meeting with Putin? Cause it didn’t happen. Why make up the story it happened? Because hi,hold,increase,False,True,2686.1013,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:58:47.572000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I am not sure about any of this but its plausible,decrease,decrease,True,True,798.6749,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:01:42.897000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Resolving this with the metaculus market is a pretty credible thing to do if folks refuse to admit an invasion has occur,flip,decrease,False,True,190.2625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T19:38:17.563000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Sri Lanka beat the LLTE yes? +https://x.com/ItaiCellier/status/1952162828900614168 +I also don't think that Hamas is get",increase,increase,True,True,1400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:34:50.091000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Yep. You can, in theory, use an LLM to brush your teeth in the morning.",flip,hold,False,True,226.0876,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T06:15:11.958000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"@thatcher1215 + alright so some clarifications based what the author has said elsewhere: +you (the resolver) claim elsew",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T19:35:25.486000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Only if you solely consider the API costs. The real costs of adopting and integrating a new technology at a significantl,flip,hold,False,True,8748.7092,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T17:21:20.883000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"That makes sense, but I wouldn't say that's contrary. Real usage of AI is increasing, and purported usage is also increa",flip,hold,False,True,226.0876,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T17:44:16.384000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/13/politics/al-shifa-hospital-us-intelligence/index.html +Hamas has command node under A",hold,flip,False,True,1010.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-29T17:41:56.820000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Yeah I felt like I was taking crazy pills re: the switch from the description and “providing” to military occupational c,decrease,hold,False,True,7818.2496,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T19:31:52.184000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I guess to be more specific, I'm counting the ~6 drones, 12 laptops, and 12 radios from the IDF videos and pictures as b",increase,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-29T14:39:08.319000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"POWs? No. Hostages, though? It was my understanding that Hamas was trying to use the hostages as human shields to discou",hold,hold,True,True,106.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T22:06:42.867000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I never tried to discredit numbers. But your number of 1200 dead Israelis is just add creditable as the figure of dead 6,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T10:12:49.752000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Well, this market says it's based on a consensus of credible media reporting including the NYT. In any case, why do you",hold,hold,True,True,4365.1102,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-16T23:58:02.461000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,they have been striking each other for a while,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-12T18:50:24.387000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"In most regions, yes. In this conflict, not really. A wartime action in this border is necessarily massive in order to d",increase,decrease,False,True,294.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T18:08:54.519000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Dude you still have the purple N in your picture. You couldn't even do that thing correctly,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T21:47:20.387000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"the federal AirTransport authority of Russia published a list of names +https://t.me/favt_ru/1278 +Propustin Sergey +Mak",flip,flip,True,True,2941.344,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-19T11:22:01.761000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,the NYT link is in part about the potential lack of deterrence achieved by the US's military posture against Hezbollah/I,hold,decrease,False,True,1600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T15:05:20.486000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,The Metaculus market has resolved YES,increase,hold,False,True,9580.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:14:09.064000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm happy to call a bedtime truce and hope + comments by tomorrow",increase,hold,False,True,2003.0373,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-01T18:21:52.607000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Negotiations are moving along and the proposed ceasefire is 6 weeks. I think it’s more likely than not that Rafah won’t ,increase,increase,True,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-06-23T20:54:27.816000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Hmm I'm not liking my position anymore. Seems like a massive overreach from him and something that might get him defenes,decrease,flip,False,True,25.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:24:05.002000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Not everything that embeds words is a language model. In the machine learning community, an LM or LLM refers to a system",flip,hold,False,True,422.3414,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-04T08:02:22.689000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"So, no prosecutions and no individuals disqualified from office.",hold,hold,True,True,119.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T18:00:26.605000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I don't understand why people are discounting the CN video where they show themselves (allegedly) typing a prompt into C,decrease,increase,False,True,9348.7988,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-06-23T22:15:54.214000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"Yeah, the market is too high, I am buying NO. It's possible he'd get killed, but I think the most likely outcome is Prig",decrease,increase,False,True,780.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-12T17:28:21.608000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Well, they understand that and apparently intend to make it way less dense before entering, and then some.",hold,increase,False,True,61.5422,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T21:11:38.977000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,the austrian guy is selling its political view about street security for children/scholars and telling he was using LLMS,flip,increase,False,True,862.1002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:29:32.115000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"That’s not at all what the article is about. It’s basically saying, the CCP/PRC is doing with LLMs what it’s done with s",decrease,increase,False,True,275.5273,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:17:26.788000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"OK, you're entitled to your opinion. But Hanania's opinion is clearly different - read description",flip,hold,False,True,7792.6235,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T01:01:03.715000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"I think the strongest argument is not that the media has a vested interest in whatever, but there might not +be + a poi",hold,decrease,False,True,336.0071,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:33:39.056000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Huh? Whoever said Arabs are 20% of this sample? You sure it’s a representative sample? +I mean, Jews were credibly acc",increase,decrease,False,True,1400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-17T12:40:44.675000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"this was just a general idea regarding negative donations, donating to Hamas is literally illegal in the US",decrease,hold,False,True,3664.6332,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T01:58:02.564000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,so you're betting YES because you think it really ought to resolve NO? 😂,flip,decrease,False,True,7667.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-28T17:58:52.633000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I see what you are saying on everything they claimed to have discovered, but what you are arguing doesn't completely add",increase,increase,True,True,722.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T03:47:52.872000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,I thought they were from different datasets.,decrease,decrease,True,True,905.2315,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T04:19:34.423000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I know how famines are defined. You may not have read this far, but there's three criteria for a famine: 30% of children",flip,increase,False,True,118.1571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:53:15.973000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"a popular and pretty good source, though maybe he could stop posting the terrorist videos. +https://twitter.com/sentde",flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:21:12.233000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"It says that China is planning to do this, not that they've done this. Look at this quote for example: +> We are closely",increase,decrease,False,True,3179.8095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-26T22:42:19.150000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I think beginning with the prior that group x “lies”, therefore this or that claim is a likely a lie—or the reverse, tha",hold,hold,True,True,2241.3856,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-15T13:26:58.888000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Gaza war to take 'months', Israel tells White House",hold,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T16:51:53.642000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Well there is this +https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/poll-shows-palestinians-back-oct-7-attack-israel-support-",increase,decrease,False,True,1400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T20:10:20.893000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,and Question 2? That's the puzzling one,flip,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-13T23:17:02.727000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,I can give you a loan if you want.,hold,hold,True,True,1500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-29T12:12:34.306000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Reuters reported on November 23 that a large number of the 11,000 North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast are still finishin",flip,decrease,False,True,730.2676,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:48:43.803000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,FWIW I was a YES until relatively recently and suggested an example as a positive signal a few weeks back.,hold,decrease,False,True,123.5354,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:09:08.158000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,John Kirby said the US intelligence is independent of Israeli information and was gathered independently.,hold,increase,False,True,7565.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-05T00:33:33.136000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"We are currently lacking a post consolidating the evidence for the ""YES"" side. I figured I should compile evidence regar",increase,increase,True,True,595.4857,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T13:27:46.960000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,can you be more specific? Would an image model with a GPT-style architecture be an LLM to you?,flip,decrease,False,True,387.3065,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T15:12:54.375000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"This market has a lot of problems with its resolution criteria, but that isn't one of them. It is explicitly +not + ref",decrease,hold,False,True,67.5574,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-28T22:29:13.557000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"12:30 p.m. EST, November 22, 2024 +North Korean military members reported to be in Mariupol and Kharkiv region + From CN",decrease,increase,False,True,563.6571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T03:35:27.337000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"if we're in the business of trust, I think we should trust Hamas most of all, since they'd presumably have the highest q",flip,flip,True,True,7767.6235,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-11T15:59:17.012000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,IDF issued a warning for hundreds of towns and cities in northern Israel to lock in the bomb shelters until further noti,decrease,increase,False,True,442.0581,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-28T15:47:24.390000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"to be clear, I am recommending a resolution",decrease,hold,False,True,36906.4505,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-17T16:11:07.660000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"US aid to Israel (basically a subsidy to buy overpriced Lockheed Martin planes that they don't need, just good political",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T23:47:31.923000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Excuse me, but I was responding to ""The second is that there's more evidence that they used it +solely as a +hospital ",increase,hold,False,True,1003.624,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-01T21:53:55.092000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"You’re right that there are both tunnels and weapons in Gaza. +IDF has copied surveillance footage from Al-Shifa hospit",decrease,decrease,True,True,3265.7661,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T02:34:42.541000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"You mean this paragraph? +""This type of door is used by the Hamas terrorist organization to block Israeli forces from e",flip,decrease,False,True,186.4604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-01T12:06:52.007000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I think America writ large, and that includes a sizable chunk of the left, is much more predisposed to at least wanting ",increase,increase,True,True,9427.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T16:30:11.589000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"New techniques are being used to engage audiences  +As part of a broad campaign focused on politically divisive topics i",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T05:06:58.023000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"He claims he quit, and the GHF claims he was fired. I don't know why I would uncritically accept the GHF's claims here w",flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:27:28.595000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I think it depends what caused the cancer. If it is roundup then Monsanto killed your. If it is your genetics then i don,flip,hold,False,True,1555.9877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T18:27:54.121000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"While AI usage might not be definitive yet, there are numerous credible reports, some from gov agencies, connecting this",decrease,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-14T02:54:06.378000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"That is, is the increased probability because the existence of "" +computers and communications"" +proves that "" +Hamas e",increase,decrease,False,True,1003.624,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T04:38:41.884000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Cool it keeps going +away from the hospital +Looks like they found a tunnel, not a command center/command node/respawn ",flip,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:18:38.935000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,What's the basis for thinking that this pattern is common? Does this occur frequently?,decrease,decrease,True,True,2200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-23T20:44:55.646000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Ukrainian media on NK troops in Kharkiv: +https://united24media.com/latest-news/no-north-korean-troops-in-kharkiv-region",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-15T04:00:33.196000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"I have the same opinion of Al-Jazeera as you, but I do think that whether or not the Qatari government or even Hamas the",hold,decrease,False,True,335.0071,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-28T17:52:57.251000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Is every location that 1% of the hostages were brought to a command center?,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-14T22:35:02.941000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"It was a response to: ""or in its immediate vicinity""",increase,hold,False,True,1003.624,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T15:42:17.790000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"kinda like NK. Everyone’s still starving and largely neglected/subjugated by the ruling party, but the Kims/Hamas are in",hold,hold,True,True,85.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-29T01:12:44.840000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"The IDF has several hospital employees, including the director, in custody. Most hostages have yet to speak publicly. T",increase,decrease,False,True,2251.3856,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T15:24:18.092000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I would avoid using ""football field"" as a unit of measurement, and maybe look at the pictures and realize that obviously",increase,decrease,False,True,1003.624,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T03:33:44.983000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"seems like it depends whether israel are intent on it being just a siege or if they plan to move in, i think that's most",flip,decrease,False,True,1590.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-16T15:20:48.325000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"is there a way to shorten links? +Anyhow, I didn't expect this. I guess the attempt is to cause maximum confusion.",hold,decrease,False,True,333.5308,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T06:08:36.309000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"A bit soon to call that a ""sustained combat effort""",decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-15T01:04:00.799000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"You could do that, or you could just sell all your shares and it should work.",hold,flip,False,True,173.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T16:53:43.975000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"What I think people are missing is that +even in private + a propagandist wouldn’t say “propaganda” in their prompt, be",increase,increase,True,True,1500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T04:36:30.301000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Beyond the blast door they finally managed to open:,hold,increase,False,True,6400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-16T08:46:25.876000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"to offer some counter to this - the Iran leadership isn't taken as very trustworthy. +That, and this doesn't really take",hold,decrease,False,True,333.5308,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T21:31:13.334000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"yes. it is bayesian evidence, not definitive evidence",hold,decrease,False,True,5155.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T19:15:49.725000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,it links to a video released by the idf though,increase,decrease,False,True,4955.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T21:33:27.442000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Woah hang on I didn't realize who was running this market. +In the words of everyone's favorite over-moneyed manchild, """,flip,decrease,False,True,800.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T17:35:55.822000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"in that case they would not publish more scraps of evidence, not wanting to draw attention to the whole thing, publishin",hold,increase,False,True,970.1102,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T22:11:47.137000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,The only opinions that matter are the journalists working for the four news sources listed in the description. Please sp,hold,hold,True,True,22873.6534,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T01:26:40.983000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,I agree mostly but communication equipment would be the first thing they would move out.,increase,decrease,False,True,430.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:17:21.343000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Like if the Russians didn’t know he was onboard why would they say he was. It makes no sense to lie about this. Are you ,flip,increase,False,True,2555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T18:38:56.607000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,Yes. They saw what happened last time. And now that they're more involved in Lebanese politics they have responsbilities,decrease,increase,False,True,154.1922,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T20:40:18.021000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,You are not making good arguments. Not even close.,increase,decrease,False,True,8168.6534,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T04:14:57.220000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"it sounds like he's saying that under the hospital was only a storage facility. If this is confirmed, doesn't that lead ",flip,decrease,False,True,7767.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-12T05:53:42.824000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Vote to change title to Did Israel complete invasion in May 2024,increase,decrease,False,True,433.9814,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-16T07:15:27.645000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Israel is evacuating more than 10,000 citizens from towns near the Lebanon border (hebrew +https://www.ynet.co.il/news/",flip,increase,False,True,172.9171,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-10T19:37:43.988000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"You're right, I didn't think of that! But, in my eyes, war will either break out overnight or it probably won't (that is",increase,decrease,False,True,267.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-16T23:52:38.359000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,I feel that Hezbollah is incentivized not to do that and have Lebanon destroyed and the US declaring war on them. I als,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T17:42:00.925000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Yes, the only evidence about bots, their AI usage, and the link to the Kremlin comes from a bunch of unnamed Russian ""mi",hold,decrease,False,True,2956.2935,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-18T23:30:21.457000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,It's about time someone posts another article that will cause another spike. C'mon I want my cheap shares.,decrease,increase,False,True,4045.6313,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:13:25.841000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"That’s models parroting existing propaganda, not generating it.",decrease,hold,False,True,265.5273,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T15:07:38.269000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,This is one element that has to be weighed together with others. I don’t think it is productive to get into the details ,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-01T13:43:13.551000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,It’s also not action by a nation state. It fails both of the main conditions for resolution.,hold,increase,False,True,917.5641,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T15:13:29.762000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"We've gone from ""it's racist to suggest Hamas would use suicide vests"" to ""Well actually there haven't been any successf",hold,decrease,False,True,655.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T21:26:54.309000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Sorry for the nerd moment but Bayes did not invent Bayesian Inference, he just happened to be the first to write and use",decrease,hold,False,True,186.4604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:45:08.036000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it clearly and openly states ""The questions raised by the Committee for the Future of the Finnish Parliament are related",flip,decrease,False,True,162.1002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:38:20.488000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,It was under 50 because one person bought 100M no right at the start before more liquidity was added,decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:39:49.247000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Alright, but it would be better to just use an estimate from an organization that's an expert on this stuff. The World F",flip,increase,False,True,118.1571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-28T15:29:04.331000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"And here is what a recognized expert says about whether this is replication of the paper in OP question: +""A similar res",increase,increase,True,True,74.9303,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-22T16:36:43.741000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"To be super clear, Q resolution is based on credible evidence IN ADDITION to IDF's claims - so, IDF claims are not suffi",hold,increase,False,True,330.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T18:07:36.136000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"I can also say that, since publishing, the aggregate probability on this is increasing due to these statements: +And +f",flip,increase,False,True,17.5064,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T01:24:16.732000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"NYT says that US intelligence points to yes according to US intelligence agencies, not that the intelligence points to y",flip,decrease,False,True,6211.7326,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:14:55.435000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,It has been reported he was on board by every major western news outlet. There isn’t gonna be some international investi,flip,increase,False,True,2555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:16:40.727000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Iran? Bombing Iran in the 12 day war was very good. Do you mean our minor role in Churchill overthrowing Mossadegh? ,increase,increase,True,True,900.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-30T16:11:11.097000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,To try and maybe make this more productive rather than just me venting I tried going through all 600 comments and gather,hold,increase,False,True,4000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-03T18:09:03.650000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Both Yes and No people think different things. That's not a good recipe,hold,decrease,False,True,38486.4505,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T17:34:00.691000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,he is just spamming this market like a mad man. I can't stand it,increase,hold,False,True,17728.6534,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T02:43:55.755000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,">“property of IDF” on the shrink wrap. +Source? are you referring to something real?",increase,decrease,False,True,430.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T16:18:46.715000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/10/13/Israeli-shelling-hits-army-observation-post-in-south-Lebanon-T,decrease,increase,False,True,105.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-17T23:31:49.682000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"He said they found stuff 2 floors below +https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israel-says-hamas-tunnel-found-at-al-s",increase,decrease,False,True,70.8916,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-18T06:46:14.652000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I hope everyone betting here has figured this out already - The reason this hasn't resolved yet is not because there are,hold,increase,False,True,8248.7092,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T05:02:30.238000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"So ""This market will settle as YES if credible reporting confirms the existence of a command center underneath the hospi",increase,decrease,False,True,1003.624,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T23:33:41.086000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,isn't the fact that they don't allow any press to cover the 'war' enough for you?,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T02:51:59.908000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Panfilo. You yourself said. The map here showing reported Israeli clearing operations across 10% or more of Rafah: +htt",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T21:13:51.837000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"i mean i'm not flat yet haha, was hoping this would happen +i had a limit in, just added a few more at different levels",flip,increase,False,True,1076.5187,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T05:02:50.892000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Clearly some people think this should count, and some people don't. I'm not certain which group FUH will fall in, and I'",increase,decrease,False,True,6598.341,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T02:48:03.604000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,OMG I don’t have any money to pay Nathan not comment! Someone please throw him 100 mana otherwise brace for an onslaught,hold,decrease,False,True,40650.787,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-13T23:02:36.134000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,The tunnel network was built prior to Hamas being in power.,hold,hold,True,True,119.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:03:00.500000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,The fundamental problem though is it feels like this market is being defined in real time based on changing circumstance,flip,decrease,False,True,190.2625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-08T19:47:33.866000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,I wonder what others think. You explained clearly in the first paragraph of the description. I am certainly no expert in,hold,hold,True,True,110.0156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:11:20.152000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I have no problem resolving now. I am not sure why there is so much doubt. It makes perfect sense.,flip,increase,False,True,1555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T18:04:30.341000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://twitter.com/2023gazawar/status/1790396949402665336 +Gaza war unit tracker +@2023gazawar +#Rafah + map update: (1",increase,increase,True,True,712.5507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:36:43.596000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,(I've bought most of my NO shares around 80%),hold,hold,True,True,123.5354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T16:59:29.352000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-says-it-accepts-ceasefire-proposal-after-israel-announces-rafah-opera,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-13T23:05:28.883000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,where are you guys getting this info from?,decrease,decrease,True,True,38566.4505,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:19:39.472000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,It would be nice to link to a verified source or collection of sources which explains the acronyms and different termino,decrease,decrease,True,True,2200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T03:05:02.956000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"If you look in Richard Hanania's likes on his X page, you can see he liked this post. Seems like a good sign he will res",decrease,increase,False,True,165.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-21T16:14:54.104000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"BBC.COM + +South Korea has summoned the Russian ambassador, seeking the ""immediate withdrawal"" of North Korean troops w",increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T09:34:49.475000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Scenario 1. Palestinians should do whatever they can to prevent Palestinian attacks on Israel. If Palestinians were non ,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T22:08:32.836000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,My two cents. If we go by Wikipedia there were about 2 million Palestinians in Gaza and 3 million in the West Bank in 20,hold,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T00:29:44.915000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Feel free to ask for any sources on claims, I don't feel like searching right now for each and every claim, but I can lo",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:56:03.573000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"you’re not understanding the difference between threat 5 and 1, where 1 is a nexus line type of deal (without applicatio",increase,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T00:20:42.141000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"It seems obvious that it refers to replicability as the foundation of the scientific method, which requires an independe",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T11:57:30.281000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"The images, which bear a striking resemblance to the early stages of Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza last year, show th",flip,flip,True,True,190.2625,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-24T17:15:52.874000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"I agree, no need to be hasty, on the other hand we should not get blocked from the resolution. It is always possible to ",decrease,decrease,True,True,99.198,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-14T01:09:41.757000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Why should the amount you bought it at make any difference?,decrease,hold,False,True,221.8253,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6ed9a77b5b5a0589a162beb1ff404e0d9aad3993 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,96 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-18T23:30:21.457000+00:00,It's about time someone posts another article that will cause another spike. C'mon I want my cheap shares.,decrease,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-28T15:47:24.390000+00:00,"to be clear, I am recommending a resolution",decrease,decrease,True +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-03T18:31:58.215000+00:00,"Is it not + who is reasoning from price? Or are you just replying to my comment?",decrease,decrease,True +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T18:38:56.607000+00:00,Yes. They saw what happened last time. And now that they're more involved in Lebanese politics they have responsbilities,decrease,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:58:47.572000+00:00,I am not sure about any of this but its plausible,decrease,decrease,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-14T01:09:41.757000+00:00,Why should the amount you bought it at make any difference?,decrease,decrease,True +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-06-23T20:54:27.816000+00:00,Hmm I'm not liking my position anymore. Seems like a massive overreach from him and something that might get him defenes,decrease,decrease,True +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-08T19:47:33.866000+00:00,I wonder what others think. You explained clearly in the first paragraph of the description. I am certainly no expert in,hold,hold,True +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-24T17:15:52.874000+00:00,"I agree, no need to be hasty, on the other hand we should not get blocked from the resolution. It is always possible to ",decrease,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-13T23:02:36.134000+00:00,The tunnel network was built prior to Hamas being in power.,hold,hold,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:38:20.488000+00:00,It was under 50 because one person bought 100M no right at the start before more liquidity was added,decrease,hold,False +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-07-15T03:06:46.034000+00:00,Like why not show video of the meeting with Putin? Cause it didn’t happen. Why make up the story it happened? Because hi,hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:16:46.102000+00:00,"OK, lots of talk about Synthesia, trying to narrow this down a bit more. +I found a propaganda video right on the Synthe",decrease,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T21:31:13.334000+00:00,"yes. it is bayesian evidence, not definitive evidence",hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T18:08:54.519000+00:00,Dude you still have the purple N in your picture. You couldn't even do that thing correctly,decrease,decrease,True +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-16T08:46:25.876000+00:00,"to offer some counter to this - the Iran leadership isn't taken as very trustworthy. +That, and this doesn't really take",hold,decrease,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-13T15:49:38.652000+00:00,some colour to your current views would be helpful,hold,decrease,False +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-15T01:04:00.799000+00:00,"You could do that, or you could just sell all your shares and it should work.",hold,decrease,False +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-16T15:20:48.325000+00:00,"is there a way to shorten links? +Anyhow, I didn't expect this. I guess the attempt is to cause maximum confusion.",hold,decrease,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T21:26:54.309000+00:00,"Sorry for the nerd moment but Bayes did not invent Bayesian Inference, he just happened to be the first to write and use",decrease,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-01T13:43:13.551000+00:00,It’s also not action by a nation state. It fails both of the main conditions for resolution.,hold,hold,True +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T03:47:52.872000+00:00,I thought they were from different datasets.,decrease,decrease,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:48:43.803000+00:00,FWIW I was a YES until relatively recently and suggested an example as a positive signal a few weeks back.,hold,decrease,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-13T23:17:02.727000+00:00,I can give you a loan if you want.,hold,decrease,False +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-17T12:40:44.675000+00:00,"this was just a general idea regarding negative donations, donating to Hamas is literally illegal in the US",decrease,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-31T21:40:40.340000+00:00,Shouldn’t the “Hanania is an absolute contrarian wildcard” people think this is closer to 50/50?,hold,decrease,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-28T17:52:57.251000+00:00,Is every location that 1% of the hostages were brought to a command center?,hold,hold,True +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-11T15:59:17.012000+00:00,IDF issued a warning for hundreds of towns and cities in northern Israel to lock in the bomb shelters until further noti,decrease,decrease,True +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-06-23T22:15:54.214000+00:00,"Yeah, the market is too high, I am buying NO. It's possible he'd get killed, but I think the most likely outcome is Prig",decrease,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T17:42:00.925000+00:00,"Yes, the only evidence about bots, their AI usage, and the link to the Kremlin comes from a bunch of unnamed Russian ""mi",hold,decrease,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:36:43.596000+00:00,(I've bought most of my NO shares around 80%),hold,decrease,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T22:08:32.836000+00:00,My two cents. If we go by Wikipedia there were about 2 million Palestinians in Gaza and 3 million in the West Bank in 20,hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T10:12:49.752000+00:00,"Well, this market says it's based on a consensus of credible media reporting including the NYT. In any case, why do you",hold,decrease,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T03:05:02.956000+00:00,"If you look in Richard Hanania's likes on his X page, you can see he liked this post. Seems like a good sign he will res",decrease,decrease,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-03T18:09:03.650000+00:00,Both Yes and No people think different things. That's not a good recipe,hold,decrease,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-13T23:05:28.883000+00:00,where are you guys getting this info from?,decrease,decrease,True +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T18:41:13.863000+00:00,I have created a different question that hopefully gets at the spirt of the question while having a less ambiguous resol,decrease,decrease,True +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-12T17:28:21.608000+00:00,"Well, they understand that and apparently intend to make it way less dense before entering, and then some.",hold,decrease,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T15:07:38.269000+00:00,This is one element that has to be weighed together with others. I don’t think it is productive to get into the details ,decrease,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T22:11:47.137000+00:00,The only opinions that matter are the journalists working for the four news sources listed in the description. Please sp,hold,hold,True +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-23T20:44:55.646000+00:00,"Ukrainian media on NK troops in Kharkiv: +https://united24media.com/latest-news/no-north-korean-troops-in-kharkiv-region",hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:18:38.935000+00:00,What's the basis for thinking that this pattern is common? Does this occur frequently?,decrease,hold,False +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T06:08:36.309000+00:00,"A bit soon to call that a ""sustained combat effort""",decrease,hold,False +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-29T17:41:56.820000+00:00,Yeah I felt like I was taking crazy pills re: the switch from the description and “providing” to military occupational c,decrease,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-04T08:02:22.689000+00:00,"So, no prosecutions and no individuals disqualified from office.",hold,hold,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T02:51:59.908000+00:00,"Panfilo. You yourself said. The map here showing reported Israeli clearing operations across 10% or more of Rafah: +htt",decrease,hold,False +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T15:42:17.790000+00:00,"kinda like NK. Everyone’s still starving and largely neglected/subjugated by the ruling party, but the Kims/Hamas are in",hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:19:39.472000+00:00,It would be nice to link to a verified source or collection of sources which explains the acronyms and different termino,decrease,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T04:36:30.301000+00:00,Beyond the blast door they finally managed to open:,hold,decrease,False +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-15T13:26:58.888000+00:00,"Gaza war to take 'months', Israel tells White House",hold,decrease,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-01T21:53:55.092000+00:00,"You’re right that there are both tunnels and weapons in Gaza. +IDF has copied surveillance footage from Al-Shifa hospit",decrease,decrease,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T15:13:29.762000+00:00,"We've gone from ""it's racist to suggest Hamas would use suicide vests"" to ""Well actually there haven't been any successf",hold,decrease,False +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T15:12:54.375000+00:00,"This market has a lot of problems with its resolution criteria, but that isn't one of them. It is explicitly +not + ref",decrease,hold,False +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T16:18:46.715000+00:00,https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/10/13/Israeli-shelling-hits-army-observation-post-in-south-Lebanon-T,decrease,decrease,True +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T00:20:42.141000+00:00,"It seems obvious that it refers to replicability as the foundation of the scientific method, which requires an independe",decrease,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-18T06:46:14.652000+00:00,I hope everyone betting here has figured this out already - The reason this hasn't resolved yet is not because there are,hold,hold,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T09:34:49.475000+00:00,Scenario 1. Palestinians should do whatever they can to prevent Palestinian attacks on Israel. If Palestinians were non ,hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T21:10:50.563000+00:00,Since the sand was placed there there hasnt been access through that point. While technically the market should resolve ,hold,decrease,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T22:06:42.867000+00:00,I never tried to discredit numbers. But your number of 1200 dead Israelis is just add creditable as the figure of dead 6,decrease,decrease,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-22T16:36:43.741000+00:00,"To be super clear, Q resolution is based on credible evidence IN ADDITION to IDF's claims - so, IDF claims are not suffi",hold,hold,True +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-19T11:22:01.761000+00:00,the NYT link is in part about the potential lack of deterrence achieved by the US's military posture against Hezbollah/I,hold,decrease,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T16:30:11.589000+00:00,"New techniques are being used to engage audiences  +As part of a broad campaign focused on politically divisive topics i",decrease,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T17:35:55.822000+00:00,"in that case they would not publish more scraps of evidence, not wanting to draw attention to the whole thing, publishin",hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T18:27:54.121000+00:00,"While AI usage might not be definitive yet, there are numerous credible reports, some from gov agencies, connecting this",decrease,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:13:25.841000+00:00,"That’s models parroting existing propaganda, not generating it.",decrease,hold,False +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T01:01:03.715000+00:00,"I think the strongest argument is not that the media has a vested interest in whatever, but there might not +be + a poi",hold,decrease,False +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-15T04:00:33.196000+00:00,"I have the same opinion of Al-Jazeera as you, but I do think that whether or not the Qatari government or even Hamas the",hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-26T22:42:19.150000+00:00,"I think beginning with the prior that group x “lies”, therefore this or that claim is a likely a lie—or the reverse, tha",hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:29:32.115000+00:00,"That’s not at all what the article is about. It’s basically saying, the CCP/PRC is doing with LLMs what it’s done with s",decrease,decrease,True +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-28T22:29:13.557000+00:00,"12:30 p.m. EST, November 22, 2024 +North Korean military members reported to be in Mariupol and Kharkiv region + From CN",decrease,hold,False +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T20:28:42.104000+00:00,the results have been verified. Resolve as yes,decrease,hold,False +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T16:59:29.352000+00:00,https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-says-it-accepts-ceasefire-proposal-after-israel-announces-rafah-opera,decrease,decrease,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:29:35.197000+00:00,Any thoughts so far? The suspense is killing me,decrease,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:09:08.158000+00:00,John Kirby said the US intelligence is independent of Israeli information and was gathered independently.,hold,decrease,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T18:00:26.605000+00:00,I don't understand why people are discounting the CN video where they show themselves (allegedly) typing a prompt into C,decrease,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T02:48:03.604000+00:00,OMG I don’t have any money to pay Nathan not comment! Someone please throw him 100 mana otherwise brace for an onslaught,hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T17:44:16.384000+00:00,"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/13/politics/al-shifa-hospital-us-intelligence/index.html +Hamas has command node under A",hold,decrease,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T19:02:02.631000+00:00,"Assuming those are new tunnels and not some of the structures left behind by the IDF in the 80's, maybe one of them lead",decrease,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-29T14:39:08.319000+00:00,"POWs? No. Hostages, though? It was my understanding that Hamas was trying to use the hostages as human shields to discou",hold,decrease,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-30T16:11:11.097000+00:00,To try and maybe make this more productive rather than just me venting I tried going through all 600 comments and gather,hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..df11dc0bec3e91acc699b8a946dbce664db65b93 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,104 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T17:21:20.883000+00:00,"That makes sense, but I wouldn't say that's contrary. Real usage of AI is increasing, and purported usage is also increa",flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T03:35:27.337000+00:00,"if we're in the business of trust, I think we should trust Hamas most of all, since they'd presumably have the highest q",flip,flip,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T02:34:42.541000+00:00,"You mean this paragraph? +""This type of door is used by the Hamas terrorist organization to block Israeli forces from e",flip,flip,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T13:27:46.960000+00:00,can you be more specific? Would an image model with a GPT-style architecture be an LLM to you?,flip,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:46:14.803000+00:00,You replied in two places so I'll just respond in the one place. This is not a defense of Israel because I agree with ev,flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:17:26.788000+00:00,"OK, you're entitled to your opinion. But Hanania's opinion is clearly different - read description",flip,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:34:50.091000+00:00,"Yep. You can, in theory, use an LLM to brush your teeth in the morning.",flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T20:10:20.893000+00:00,and Question 2? That's the puzzling one,flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-13T23:02:36.134000+00:00,The tunnel network was built prior to Hamas being in power.,hold,hold,True +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-08T19:47:33.866000+00:00,I wonder what others think. You explained clearly in the first paragraph of the description. I am certainly no expert in,hold,hold,True +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:17:21.343000+00:00,Like if the Russians didn’t know he was onboard why would they say he was. It makes no sense to lie about this. Are you ,flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T21:31:13.334000+00:00,"yes. it is bayesian evidence, not definitive evidence",hold,hold,True +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-16T08:46:25.876000+00:00,"to offer some counter to this - the Iran leadership isn't taken as very trustworthy. +That, and this doesn't really take",hold,hold,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T06:15:11.958000+00:00,"@thatcher1215 + alright so some clarifications based what the author has said elsewhere: +you (the resolver) claim elsew",flip,hold,False +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T03:33:44.983000+00:00,"seems like it depends whether israel are intent on it being just a siege or if they plan to move in, i think that's most",flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-13T23:17:02.727000+00:00,I can give you a loan if you want.,hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-13T15:49:38.652000+00:00,some colour to your current views would be helpful,hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T19:35:25.486000+00:00,Only if you solely consider the API costs. The real costs of adopting and integrating a new technology at a significantl,flip,hold,False +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-15T01:04:00.799000+00:00,"You could do that, or you could just sell all your shares and it should work.",hold,flip,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:48:43.803000+00:00,FWIW I was a YES until relatively recently and suggested an example as a positive signal a few weeks back.,hold,flip,False +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-16T15:20:48.325000+00:00,"is there a way to shorten links? +Anyhow, I didn't expect this. I guess the attempt is to cause maximum confusion.",hold,hold,True +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-07-15T03:06:46.034000+00:00,Like why not show video of the meeting with Putin? Cause it didn’t happen. Why make up the story it happened? Because hi,hold,flip,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-01T13:43:13.551000+00:00,It’s also not action by a nation state. It fails both of the main conditions for resolution.,hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T21:33:27.442000+00:00,"Woah hang on I didn't realize who was running this market. +In the words of everyone's favorite over-moneyed manchild, """,flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T04:14:57.220000+00:00,"it sounds like he's saying that under the hospital was only a storage facility. If this is confirmed, doesn't that lead ",flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-28T17:52:57.251000+00:00,Is every location that 1% of the hostages were brought to a command center?,hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T04:38:41.884000+00:00,"Cool it keeps going +away from the hospital +Looks like they found a tunnel, not a command center/command node/respawn ",flip,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T17:42:00.925000+00:00,"Yes, the only evidence about bots, their AI usage, and the link to the Kremlin comes from a bunch of unnamed Russian ""mi",hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T10:12:49.752000+00:00,"Well, this market says it's based on a consensus of credible media reporting including the NYT. In any case, why do you",hold,hold,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:01:42.897000+00:00,Resolving this with the metaculus market is a pretty credible thing to do if folks refuse to admit an invasion has occur,flip,flip,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T22:08:32.836000+00:00,My two cents. If we go by Wikipedia there were about 2 million Palestinians in Gaza and 3 million in the West Bank in 20,hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:36:43.596000+00:00,(I've bought most of my NO shares around 80%),hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:04:46.263000+00:00,"I think this market is specifically about evidence that is additional to claims by Israeli intelligence, and it is impli",flip,hold,False +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-16T07:15:27.645000+00:00,"Israel is evacuating more than 10,000 citizens from towns near the Lebanon border (hebrew +https://www.ynet.co.il/news/",flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-03T18:09:03.650000+00:00,Both Yes and No people think different things. That's not a good recipe,hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-31T21:40:40.340000+00:00,Shouldn’t the “Hanania is an absolute contrarian wildcard” people think this is closer to 50/50?,hold,hold,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T05:06:58.023000+00:00,"He claims he quit, and the GHF claims he was fired. I don't know why I would uncritically accept the GHF's claims here w",flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T22:11:47.137000+00:00,The only opinions that matter are the journalists working for the four news sources listed in the description. Please sp,hold,hold,True +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-12T17:28:21.608000+00:00,"Well, they understand that and apparently intend to make it way less dense before entering, and then some.",hold,hold,True +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-23T20:44:55.646000+00:00,"Ukrainian media on NK troops in Kharkiv: +https://united24media.com/latest-news/no-north-korean-troops-in-kharkiv-region",hold,hold,True +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T18:07:36.136000+00:00,"I can also say that, since publishing, the aggregate probability on this is increasing due to these statements: +And +f",flip,hold,False +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:14:55.435000+00:00,It has been reported he was on board by every major western news outlet. There isn’t gonna be some international investi,flip,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:45:08.036000+00:00,"it clearly and openly states ""The questions raised by the Committee for the Future of the Finnish Parliament are related",flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T01:24:16.732000+00:00,"NYT says that US intelligence points to yes according to US intelligence agencies, not that the intelligence points to y",flip,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T04:19:34.423000+00:00,"I know how famines are defined. You may not have read this far, but there's three criteria for a famine: 30% of children",flip,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:39:49.247000+00:00,"Alright, but it would be better to just use an estimate from an organization that's an expert on this stuff. The World F",flip,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T21:11:38.977000+00:00,the austrian guy is selling its political view about street security for children/scholars and telling he was using LLMS,flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-04T08:02:22.689000+00:00,"So, no prosecutions and no individuals disqualified from office.",hold,hold,True +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-15T13:26:58.888000+00:00,"Gaza war to take 'months', Israel tells White House",hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T15:13:29.762000+00:00,"We've gone from ""it's racist to suggest Hamas would use suicide vests"" to ""Well actually there haven't been any successf",hold,flip,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T04:36:30.301000+00:00,Beyond the blast door they finally managed to open:,hold,hold,True +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T15:42:17.790000+00:00,"kinda like NK. Everyone’s still starving and largely neglected/subjugated by the ruling party, but the Kims/Hamas are in",hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:56:28.021000+00:00,"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66727459 +maybe this was posted before (sry didnt look through 222 comments) +but I ",flip,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:24:05.002000+00:00,"Not everything that embeds words is a language model. In the machine learning community, an LM or LLM refers to a system",flip,hold,False +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-22T16:23:44.687000+00:00,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-22/us-push-for-release-of-hostages-delays-israeli-ground-war-but-won-t-s,flip,hold,False +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:53:15.973000+00:00,"a popular and pretty good source, though maybe he could stop posting the terrorist videos. +https://twitter.com/sentde",flip,hold,False +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-19T11:22:01.761000+00:00,the NYT link is in part about the potential lack of deterrence achieved by the US's military posture against Hezbollah/I,hold,flip,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T09:34:49.475000+00:00,Scenario 1. Palestinians should do whatever they can to prevent Palestinian attacks on Israel. If Palestinians were non ,hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T21:10:50.563000+00:00,Since the sand was placed there there hasnt been access through that point. While technically the market should resolve ,hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-18T06:46:14.652000+00:00,I hope everyone betting here has figured this out already - The reason this hasn't resolved yet is not because there are,hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-22T16:36:43.741000+00:00,"To be super clear, Q resolution is based on credible evidence IN ADDITION to IDF's claims - so, IDF claims are not suffi",hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T01:58:02.564000+00:00,so you're betting YES because you think it really ought to resolve NO? 😂,flip,flip,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T17:35:55.822000+00:00,"in that case they would not publish more scraps of evidence, not wanting to draw attention to the whole thing, publishin",hold,hold,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:03:00.500000+00:00,The fundamental problem though is it feels like this market is being defined in real time based on changing circumstance,flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-26T22:42:19.150000+00:00,"I think beginning with the prior that group x “lies”, therefore this or that claim is a likely a lie—or the reverse, tha",hold,hold,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T01:01:03.715000+00:00,"I think the strongest argument is not that the media has a vested interest in whatever, but there might not +be + a poi",hold,flip,False +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-29T12:12:34.306000+00:00,"Reuters reported on November 23 that a large number of the 11,000 North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast are still finishin",flip,hold,False +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-15T04:00:33.196000+00:00,"I have the same opinion of Al-Jazeera as you, but I do think that whether or not the Qatari government or even Hamas the",hold,hold,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:09:08.158000+00:00,John Kirby said the US intelligence is independent of Israeli information and was gathered independently.,hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:06:26.655000+00:00,"true, while ""the parliament"" is a place where elected representatives pass laws, make political decisions, and +oversee",flip,hold,False +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:11:20.152000+00:00,I have no problem resolving now. I am not sure why there is so much doubt. It makes perfect sense.,flip,hold,False +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T21:47:20.387000+00:00,"the federal AirTransport authority of Russia published a list of names +https://t.me/favt_ru/1278 +Propustin Sergey +Mak",flip,flip,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T02:48:03.604000+00:00,OMG I don’t have any money to pay Nathan not comment! Someone please throw him 100 mana otherwise brace for an onslaught,hold,hold,True +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T21:13:51.837000+00:00,"i mean i'm not flat yet haha, was hoping this would happen +i had a limit in, just added a few more at different levels",flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-30T16:11:11.097000+00:00,To try and maybe make this more productive rather than just me venting I tried going through all 600 comments and gather,hold,hold,True +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:27:28.595000+00:00,I think it depends what caused the cancer. If it is roundup then Monsanto killed your. If it is your genetics then i don,flip,flip,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T00:29:44.915000+00:00,"Feel free to ask for any sources on claims, I don't feel like searching right now for each and every claim, but I can lo",flip,hold,False +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-29T14:39:08.319000+00:00,"POWs? No. Hostages, though? It was my understanding that Hamas was trying to use the hostages as human shields to discou",hold,hold,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T11:57:30.281000+00:00,"The images, which bear a striking resemblance to the early stages of Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza last year, show th",flip,flip,True +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T17:44:16.384000+00:00,"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/13/politics/al-shifa-hospital-us-intelligence/index.html +Hamas has command node under A",hold,flip,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..78b87d37f40c47140bd513962b22c22eb49e6f0e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,219 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:10:45.566000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Can you say anything about why states will +not + use LLM's for propaganda? +There's a lot of, ""hey here's what the lin",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-24T00:47:38.963000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I assure you the probability of that given that he died is > 90%.,decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T23:06:57.425000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"As an American, I don't want China to have leverage over Israel with its NVIDIA presence and so on with all those troops",increase,decrease,False,True,2450.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T03:54:56.128000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,that would be a great point if Israel was being invaded,decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-12T19:11:14.543000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"""With least one contingent of over 100 troops, where they are physically within the borders of Ukraine's map before the ",hold,hold,True,True,334.4523,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-14T23:40:59.621000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"challenging two US carrier groups and 300,000 israeli troops while being a minority paramilitary which is hated by most ",decrease,increase,False,True,2378.4702,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:27:13.023000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"There was an Arab party in the last government. There are 2 million Israeli Arabs that vote. Where the ""apartheid"" acc",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:56:28.021000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66727459 +maybe this was posted before (sry didnt look through 222 comments) +but I ",flip,decrease,False,True,90.3719,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-11T16:59:13.443000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"The IDF just announced it was a system error. +https://t.me/manniefabian/39830",decrease,increase,False,True,1687.9631,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T21:51:14.780000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I get that the IDF is not the most reliable source, but this is an actual, full video of the tunnels, what else do you w",flip,decrease,False,True,9.3322,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-13T12:46:51.908000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Not a nation state, not LLMs? (Can’t access the article, I’m not sure.)",increase,decrease,False,True,3382.2356,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:26:07.841000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"In your excerpt: ""Similar rules have long been in place for Chinese social media companies"". This suggests such propagan",decrease,decrease,True,True,265.5273,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T18:07:36.136000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"I can also say that, since publishing, the aggregate probability on this is increasing due to these statements: +And +f",flip,increase,False,True,17.5064,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:11:20.152000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I have no problem resolving now. I am not sure why there is so much doubt. It makes perfect sense.,flip,increase,False,True,1555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:47:12.838000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Questions for OP +: +do you believe the IPC reports that Gaza is currently in phase 4 food insecurity? +do you believ",flip,decrease,False,True,118.1571,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-17T09:56:14.872000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"https://www.vice.com/en/article/ak33ge/russia-says-fake-putin-address-declaring-martial-law-was-a-hack +Not sure this qu",hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T05:14:15.113000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"This is why we have international law that says you can't operate in hospitals. Everyone loses if civilians get hurt, so",hold,increase,False,True,5755.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T01:16:53.422000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Also tbc because I can sense the rules lawyering in advance, the resolution criteria doesn't require one of the papers t",hold,increase,False,True,7365.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-17T23:27:06.364000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Haha. I have been there. The sooner you accept the evidence isn’t gonna magically appear after several days the better f,increase,increase,True,True,5493.8693,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:42:31.941000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Are the ""human animals"" affected by a complete hunger siege only Hamas, or the Gazans? You expect us to ignore that this",decrease,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-06T18:00:05.574000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"""i was not convinced there was famine"" +Would the IPC--the leading experts in the world in aid--convince you? +https://",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:10:45.689000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"yep, but do you really think that will move Hanania's needle? He wants credible reporting. Not Israeli intelligence clai",flip,decrease,False,True,7792.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:58:33.079000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"(marketcreator) it's also on video (german) +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyd-jxxm_fc",flip,increase,False,True,462.1002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T02:39:23.566000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I think the main issue is the phrase ""confirms that the standard model of gravity breaks down."" The observations themsel",flip,decrease,False,True,67.5574,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:25:10.843000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Thanks for digging that up. Creator comments should probably pin to the top of the thread. Or at least be a sort option.,flip,hold,False,True,1555.9877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-22T14:00:49.679000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,It’s sad this peak didn’t go as high as the previous ones.,hold,decrease,False,True,262.1415,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:21:20.848000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I don’t know but the four recent peaks look similar. It’s probably just random timing of people coming across candidates,decrease,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-12-24T00:20:10.456000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,Thank you for this information very interesting. Is there an article somewhere about the Merkava III being pull out of s,hold,hold,True,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-04-02T18:47:39.113000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,The café that Yevgeny Prigozhin used to own just got blown up.,increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T01:04:31.435000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,There is more evidence that they use it as a hospital than that they used it as a command center.,hold,decrease,False,True,33782.2192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T02:51:17.352000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I will respectfully remind you of what you said 21 days ago: +""For this to resolve yes, we don’t need MOND to be confirm",decrease,decrease,True,True,167.7072,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-14T20:45:32.765000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Why are you responding to a comment with something that is answered by the original comment?,hold,hold,True,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T19:05:03.485000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"Ok, guess we'll have to wait and see",decrease,hold,False,True,394.9303,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:24:48.682000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"okay fair enough, I can understand wanting to trade it. Can we open back up please for the good argument + ?",flip,hold,False,True,2555.9877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T01:18:39.571000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"@DanPowell + No, the idea that the all/most of the weapons got there due to injured people carrying them is silly. I was",increase,hold,False,True,430.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T05:10:12.904000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Thanks Joshua. We need to wait for FUH to clarify, but I want to point out that the reports I (and Santiago) brought up ",increase,increase,True,True,11935.3503,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T16:44:45.967000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Gallant: Hamas refusal of hostage deal forces us to enter Rafah; thousands flee city +https://www.timesofisrael.com/live",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-12-03T23:38:50.925000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Kim Jong-un 'furious with Vladimir Putin' over important factor in Ukraine war +Story by Rudi Kinsella & Jamie Shapiro +",increase,increase,True,True,293.7748,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-05T00:22:56.549000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,I will make a top-level comment summarizing the evidence.,increase,UNKNOWN,False,True,595.4857,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:46:42.199000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I think if I get proof from some advertisement agency friends in my bubble working on political accounts for the next el,flip,increase,False,True,162.1002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-16T19:08:03.075000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"To supply and resupply a ground war, Iran (7th in oil production) has to send a ton of weapons overland through Iraq (5t",hold,decrease,False,True,2664.6332,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:35:35.200000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Posting again because this was buried: +From Wired Headline: +""AI Chatbots Are Learning To Spout Authoritarian Propagand",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T01:40:04.615000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I am not interested in debating hermeneutics, I simply commented that it seems quite obvious to me that when one speaks ",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T15:07:38.269000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,This is one element that has to be weighed together with others. I don’t think it is productive to get into the details ,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-04T17:17:50.425000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Exactly. Not believing the IDF videos != believing Hamas.,hold,hold,True,True,7.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:29:22.764000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,The arc of history is long but it bends towards Marcus' Manifold predictions being correct.,decrease,increase,False,True,39626.4505,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T02:39:11.526000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"Yes, if it is an independent observation, even if it is from the same system, I understand that it would be replication.",hold,flip,False,True,36.852,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:17:21.343000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Like if the Russians didn’t know he was onboard why would they say he was. It makes no sense to lie about this. Are you ,flip,increase,False,True,2555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:09:11.115000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"it saw a declassified document about their assessment, not about any actual evidence",flip,decrease,False,True,7792.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T01:14:59.830000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"I agree with the way this market has been run, and I believe it has not met the original criteria and + has been fantas",increase,hold,False,True,704.6708,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:18:34.462000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Contrastive Image generation in fact uses two LLM's as a part of the process of generating an image, so it should qualif",decrease,hold,False,True,2200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T21:54:02.028000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,That would be the craziest twist of the season!!,flip,hold,False,True,538.565,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:21:49.096000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Further discussion, separate track, Shin Bet has its own Bard/ChatGPT as was released at a military conference in June o",increase,increase,True,True,1500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T18:03:48.830000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-may-6-2024/ +Hamas claims to accept ceasefire; Israeli officials: It’s not the de",decrease,decrease,True,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T02:40:47.508000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I mean it's clearly not operational now that the IDF has conquered the hospital. I don't really get the argument, the gu",increase,decrease,False,True,430.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:07:44.711000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,read description - this does not resolve based on claims of Israeli or US intelligence,flip,decrease,False,True,7792.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:55:51.110000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"ACTUALLY, i guess THIS could count 😏 +https://steiermark.neos.eu/blog/historisch-erste-von-einer-kuenstlichen-intellige",flip,increase,False,True,162.1002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-11T09:25:18.633000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"as an aside, Hamas and the Gazans know the people in the video. They know these people are not Hamas fighters. Maybe the",hold,hold,True,True,210.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T08:53:29.590000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"sorry ignore me, just realised you sold your position!",increase,hold,False,True,393.7805,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:59:23.751000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"On the contrary, one can put together an app that calls on the ChatGPT, an LLM API in 5 minutes, using ChatGPT itself. I",hold,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-04T14:09:58.171000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"so, just to clarify, this market is synonymous to: Will Hezbollah and Israel go to war?",hold,hold,True,True,900.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T04:22:16.871000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"“We have our own intelligence that convinces us that Hamas was using Al-Shifa as a command-and-control node..."" White Ho",hold,increase,False,True,7365.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T12:46:58.385000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"In general, it is very foolish to say ""X was wrong about Y, therefore X's predictions are of zero value."" As any user of",hold,increase,False,True,7365.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T17:04:39.881000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Yeah I think state-controlled media is an extension of a nation state by common understanding, and also propaganda can b",increase,increase,True,True,2200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:11:33.946000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Killed does not equal murdered. You can be killed in a plane crash. Dying is when you are old and sick.,flip,hold,False,True,1555.9877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:34:14.495000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The report and its citations only reach a YES threshold under a very boring definition. If China's regulation qualifies,",flip,decrease,False,True,16.5158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T21:11:38.977000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,the austrian guy is selling its political view about street security for children/scholars and telling he was using LLMS,flip,increase,False,True,862.1002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T14:17:37.338000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,I'm getting out of this market until the creator clarifies. I don't want to lose anymore mana by betting on what the cre,decrease,decrease,True,True,67.5574,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T21:33:24.389000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,He is very very pro Israel. He is a race realist and generally sympathetic to extreme uses of force to solve problems. I,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T18:19:38.241000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"The poll doesn't account for how confident you are in your belief, it just asks what you think is the most likely.",decrease,hold,False,True,3645.1565,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T02:24:21.365000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"Repeating the analysis on the same data would clearly not be a replication, but I believe what happened is they used dif",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-01T03:30:32.176000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Can’t not mention Fermi and Peanut who take turns riding on my shoulders.,increase,hold,False,True,39060.5944,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:20:18.583000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I was thinking that very thing.,flip,hold,False,True,1555.9877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T18:42:39.565000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Some more questions. And when I say your position I just mean where you stand right now, not how you'll resolve the mark",flip,decrease,False,True,118.1571,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T21:49:36.766000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The way I see it, people keep posting nothingburgers and other people take the bait. I myself caused one of the spikes w",increase,increase,True,True,2879.8095,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-05T22:35:59.669000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Al Jazeera is the propaganda arm of a hostile foreign power, not just 'critical news'.",increase,hold,False,True,935.4805,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:46:55.768000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,You may be right! Though here's what it looks like to me (not saying either narrative is definitive; just adding perspec,decrease,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T03:52:14.591000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"That is correct, but they each used different subsets to define the wide binaries in question. I think it is the only da",decrease,hold,False,True,167.7072,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:14:07.691000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Dude it’s in Russia. How much more information do you expect to get?,flip,increase,False,True,2555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T03:47:52.872000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,I thought they were from different datasets.,decrease,decrease,True,True,905.2315,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-24T11:55:06.184000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"And here's AP also reporting it: +https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-poland-yoon-duda-north-korea-russia-troop-depl",flip,increase,False,True,851.3277,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:00:32.226000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"obvs. but this article tells its regulated by china in some ways. right? +""But the Cyberspace Administration of China ru",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T19:11:01.666000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Update on the fighting in Rafah The IDF is on its way to further progress in Rafah, it seems that at the moment the IDF ",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T22:33:24.374000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Yes, ""no evidence"" per the resolution would really be a stretch if the IDF could show Hamas infrastructure under the hos",hold,increase,False,True,6400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:45:41.783000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"how do they have military operational control? +Is there anywhere above ground in Gaza a Hamas operative can walk unhind",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-24T00:44:29.478000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"This is probably the most politicized, combative, and unpleasant comment section I've seen on Manifold to date. Can we p",hold,hold,True,True,465.4857,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T14:37:48.820000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I mean that the time for this debate was 1.5 years ago.,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T08:51:21.233000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"I think this is a totally reasonable able position but taking a decent sized ""no"" position at the same time does make re",increase,decrease,False,True,393.7805,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T15:05:20.486000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,The Metaculus market has resolved YES,increase,hold,False,True,9580.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T22:43:05.755000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,what would be the standard of evidence?,increase,decrease,False,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-30T23:38:48.322000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"As things stand, timezone is up to you, and well-specified markets will say in their resolution criteria what the releva",increase,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:14:36.381000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,It is quite funny that they removed Surovikin as head of airborne forces and then they shot down his plane literally the,flip,flip,True,True,2941.344,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T16:56:25.781000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Not if Hanania is 90% confident. Anyway, the IDF just released the tunnel and blast door. And that makes you think it'",hold,decrease,False,True,970.1102,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T17:59:42.491000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,How exactly did I do that? I don't even know you.,decrease,decrease,True,True,165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:01:42.897000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Resolving this with the metaculus market is a pretty credible thing to do if folks refuse to admit an invasion has occur,hold,decrease,False,True,190.2625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T19:20:30.404000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Which is all but impossible for IDF to prove now. This is the type of thing that has to be proven BEFORE the building is,hold,decrease,False,True,19978.6534,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T04:13:32.733000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,IDF IS FAST MOVING IN RAFAH: reports that IDF has entered the eastern neighborhoods of Rafah and is about to enter the r,increase,increase,True,True,572.5507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-19T01:39:53.666000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"the evidence is that tons of western spy agencies are publicly saying it is happening, and this far in this conflict tha",increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:32:16.598000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,he is only going by the legal definition of famine as per the IPC. It's not a famine in this regard. just mass hunger. o,flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-08T19:47:33.866000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,I wonder what others think. You explained clearly in the first paragraph of the description. I am certainly no expert in,hold,hold,True,True,110.0156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-30T03:08:24.815000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Yeah, I think it’s a great deal. Problem is I already have a much higher percentage of my man tied up in this market tha",hold,decrease,False,True,7273.768,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-25T00:04:04.386000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Um, no? See, again. ""there are two meanings. The first is affecting disposition, the second is determining it. Clearly, ",hold,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-14T23:42:24.989000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,What market is that? Btw you can embed markets in comments,increase,UNKNOWN,False,True,1163.1907,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-08T20:14:15.655000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I'll pass it on to my highschool teacher, thanks.",hold,hold,True,True,655.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-03T18:34:52.173000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,I'm just making the point (I suppose in support of the opening argument) that markets have priced in the probability of ,increase,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:57:48.939000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Yes I think the blockade is indefensible because even if it is preventing Hamas from arming itself it is starving the ci,flip,increase,False,True,118.1571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T14:07:34.942000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I will not be participating in these threads anymore. I am not stuck in a debate, I think I am way ahead (thanks, +) bu",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T20:19:55.486000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"alright well this position is way too big for something like that +my fault for spread trading a market with no descript",flip,decrease,False,True,1316.9129,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:51:20.319000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Yeah I'm seeing nothing more that warnings, research, and hypotheticals here. Gotta sleep soon but I don't think this re",increase,increase,True,True,1502.8046,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:04:46.263000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I think this market is specifically about evidence that is additional to claims by Israeli intelligence, and it is impli",flip,hold,False,True,7792.6235,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:02:14.289000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"If translation LLMs are not sufficient here, I don't see why TTS would be. Maybe it should be clarified that it should b",increase,decrease,False,True,2879.8095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:24:25.353000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,this is a good point. Israel is powerful. With power there comes responsibility. Edit: you edited your post. My reply is,increase,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:05:59.467000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"From Wired Headline: +""AI Chatbots Are Learning To Spout Authoritarian Propaganda"" +https://www.wired.com/story/chatbot",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-10-03T16:27:59.969000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,OPs acc was deleted. Is there a way to auto resolve?,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-24T18:21:50.654000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"But as already established, this does more than just +relate + to this issue. +Epistemically +, it contributes to it.",hold,hold,True,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-24T02:36:30.430000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Well they +tend + not to explicitly lie, which might be what people are saying. It +does + happen, but it's relatively",hold,increase,False,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:42:24.091000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I recommend this book. +https://bookbit.substack.com/p/book-review-alpha-trader-by-brent + There's this notion of narra",hold,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T02:46:48.795000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"FWIW, I would place the odds of ""Will it be agreed upon by astrophysicists that observations of gravity breaking down ha",decrease,decrease,True,True,167.7072,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:17:26.788000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"OK, you're entitled to your opinion. But Hanania's opinion is clearly different - read description",flip,hold,False,True,7792.6235,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T13:17:56.722000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I assume that's why they didn't buy the market to 99.,decrease,decrease,True,True,575.9792,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:23:55.819000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"360degree video tour of one of the tunnels under shifa (or what remains of it) +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjZbApM",increase,increase,True,True,465.4857,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-08T04:06:09.130000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,Do you have a source? I couldn't find any mention for this in the news,flip,hold,False,True,105.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-29T12:12:34.306000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Reuters reported on November 23 that a large number of the 11,000 North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast are still finishin",flip,decrease,False,True,730.2676,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T18:27:17.978000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,It appears according to this to be a different deal that is “quite similar” to Israel’s proposal but with some different,decrease,decrease,True,True,65.6841,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-14T10:02:46.441000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"""or in its immediate vicinity""",hold,hold,True,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T19:29:25.677000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"the timeline is significantly shorter on this market than that question, so I won't take you up on that I'm afraid! And ",flip,decrease,False,True,17.5064,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-10T09:46:34.833000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"yeah, I realised that after I shared, apologies!",flip,decrease,False,True,197.8782,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:42:02.866000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Actually... Google Translate is an LLM behind the scenes. Pretty sure that's against the spirit of the question, but tec",increase,decrease,False,True,1429.8095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-03T08:17:49.815000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"If you think it’s a binary question you have to believe terrorists, because the major parties involved are both terroris",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-08T19:34:48.584000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"I am not rushing to any resolution until I have a declaration or a clear action. +It's still very much unclear who is do",hold,decrease,False,True,105.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T10:52:10.667000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"This “large scale” hunger has to far killed 180 out of 2 million Gazans, less than 0.01% of them, according to the Hamas",hold,increase,False,True,3450.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-07-02T04:13:44.372000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Ukraine would say that whether it was true or not.,increase,hold,False,True,1275.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-17T15:13:02.527000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"My reading is that it's either that or extremely precarious, but I think ersatz is weighing the behavior of the refugees",hold,decrease,False,True,6650.2355,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:43:05.947000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The RTnews thing obviously does not meet the criteria of this pool. It says ""nation state"" not a random writer. There is",increase,increase,True,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-15T01:00:09.172000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Honestly, it could all be bolstering for sure. Iran has said if Israel enters Gaza they are coming. But that would proba",decrease,decrease,True,True,105.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-07-08T02:04:43.649000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"Wagner boss Prigozhin never went to Belarus, used body double to appear as if he fled Russia: US official - World News (",increase,decrease,False,True,400.7113,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-11T12:49:01.661000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Starvation is becoming a more imminent threat. Aid is both heavily relied upon, and less reliably delivered as outside i",decrease,decrease,True,True,3702.2355,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T20:46:36.404000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,AIPAC? what the heck are you talking about,hold,hold,True,True,5755.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:24:12.747000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Read the actual Haaretz link and learn how to use +archive.is + to get around paywalls. +https://archive.is/QrKY5 +“Ano",increase,increase,True,True,1400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:27:28.595000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I think it depends what caused the cancer. If it is roundup then Monsanto killed your. If it is your genetics then i don,flip,hold,False,True,1555.9877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:46:21.225000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Try the PDF here: +https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2023-10/Freedom-on-the-net-2023-DigitalBooklet.pdf +The",increase,hold,False,True,7000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T02:27:16.274000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Another one: +https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/12/17/ai-fake-news-misinformation/ +“Since May, websites ho",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T21:13:51.837000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"i mean i'm not flat yet haha, was hoping this would happen +i had a limit in, just added a few more at different levels",flip,increase,False,True,1076.5187,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T04:19:34.423000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I know how famines are defined. You may not have read this far, but there's three criteria for a famine: 30% of children",hold,increase,False,True,118.1571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-29T21:07:35.887000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"If they only fight on Russian territory in Kursk, does this count?",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T17:27:21.293000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"I think 'large scale' is pretty important. If the IDF takes one inch past any of the coordinates, Metaculus resolves yes",decrease,increase,False,True,9074.7599,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T14:56:17.590000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"NY Times higher resolution map of evacuation zone covers far more of Rafah. Looks like half to me. +https://archive.is/B",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T21:47:20.387000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"the federal AirTransport authority of Russia published a list of names +https://t.me/favt_ru/1278 +Propustin Sergey +Mak",flip,flip,True,True,2941.344,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-24T16:56:42.855000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"the problem seems to be nobody will trust Russian confirmation, short of DNA evidence. So who knows how or when this wil",decrease,decrease,True,True,10020.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T20:39:18.572000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,How many times are you gonna say this nonsense about booby traps?? They have robots they don’t need humans to go into th,increase,increase,True,True,8168.6534,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T19:53:58.049000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,We need more video and evidence of the scale involved. There were controversial markets last year when 10 or so tanks an,decrease,decrease,True,True,536.9473,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-28T20:19:55.614000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"So what happened here is that two (three?) independent studies looked at the same data, did their calculations, and they",increase,increase,True,True,159.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-09T08:25:11.549000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The ide that it’s all about oppression is silly. The 1929 riots weren’t caused by oppression. And the recent Gaza war ,increase,increase,True,True,3950.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:46:14.803000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You replied in two places so I'll just respond in the one place. This is not a defense of Israel because I agree with ev,flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T00:20:42.141000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"It seems obvious that it refers to replicability as the foundation of the scientific method, which requires an independe",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-30T09:11:04.025000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,This market is already my biggest asset. But I am borrowing more to buy all.,hold,decrease,False,True,3010.8353,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-17T12:48:21.455000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,I haven't seen any serious proposals for that,decrease,hold,False,True,3664.6332,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-22T01:54:07.515000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Russia has 700,000 soldiers on rotation in the combat zone. Why would they attempt to integrate 10-12k non Russian speak",hold,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T14:05:58.905000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,For the journalists own safety,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T18:02:47.960000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"They focus on a different timeframe, and it's about Israel-Hezbollah fatalities rather than declarations of war, but Swi",flip,increase,False,True,17.5064,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..af9b6177588bcd22425b2154a6e933b6138f667c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,204 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T01:51:13.150000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"After all this talk, I feel like my view is ""does it matter""? Like, obviously Hamas was doing some activities from the h",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-05T22:33:45.396000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,https://www.timesofisrael.com/government-orders-temporary-closure-of-al-jazeera-bureau-for-harming-israeli-security/amp/,decrease,decrease,True,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-25T00:12:42.939000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I am new to this market but I googled the creators name and he published +this amazing peaceful and humane think piece ",hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:47:10.664000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"the Haaretz article says it was a representative sample. (Thanks for the paywall bypass) +The poll was conducted during ",increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-01T20:12:09.160000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,This market is specifically about what the 4 biggest and most respected newspapers write about any command center under ,decrease,hold,False,True,3265.7661,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T23:26:02.766000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,So this market is like so many other thousands of markets on Manifold and markets I've seen in every prediction market. ,flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T19:11:01.666000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Update on the fighting in Rafah The IDF is on its way to further progress in Rafah, it seems that at the moment the IDF ",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-17T23:31:49.682000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"He said they found stuff 2 floors below +https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israel-says-hamas-tunnel-found-at-al-s",increase,decrease,False,True,70.8916,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T20:15:25.608000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,okay im sorry abt the first claim. i wasnt trying to argue anything leading from that. I am neither anti zionist nor ant,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-01T23:07:09.891000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Why do you think we got all the evidence we are going to get?,hold,decrease,False,True,2540.9849,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:34:14.495000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The report and its citations only reach a YES threshold under a very boring definition. If China's regulation qualifies,",flip,decrease,False,True,16.5158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-15T01:03:06.250000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,Stupid question time. Do I do a limit order myself now and put it at 46%?,decrease,decrease,True,True,105.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T02:48:30.762000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"Yes, which is part of why this market was initially so low. I think the probability of MOND actually being true is alrea",flip,increase,False,True,67.5574,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T10:52:53.819000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"I thought we already have confirmations from Ukraine that NK send troops to Russia to fight Ukraine: +https://www.bbc.c",increase,increase,True,True,1.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T21:47:20.387000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"the federal AirTransport authority of Russia published a list of names +https://t.me/favt_ru/1278 +Propustin Sergey +Mak",flip,flip,True,True,2941.344,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T00:59:31.796000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"again to be clear, these two probabilities should sum up to be roughly equal, so the trade right now would be to buy YES",flip,hold,False,True,1590.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T17:09:54.397000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I put an exit order at 70% if anyone wants to gobble it up. Market too volatile, as last year.",hold,decrease,False,True,982.6266,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-01T08:27:06.041000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Here is an alternative take: since it’s ridiculous to suggest one is betting on the bias of the market creator rather th,hold,decrease,False,True,39560.5944,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T04:33:39.515000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"BTW, if you're in the MOND camp, I just made a market on dark matter where you can bet on MOND being true.",decrease,hold,False,True,460.8378,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:58:33.079000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"(marketcreator) it's also on video (german) +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyd-jxxm_fc",flip,increase,False,True,462.1002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T13:58:32.070000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Reports of plan to create permanent 1000 meter wide base in Philadelphi corridor. Destroying all buildings in the zone. ,increase,increase,True,True,372.5507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:14:07.691000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Dude it’s in Russia. How much more information do you expect to get?,flip,increase,False,True,2555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:11:20.152000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I have no problem resolving now. I am not sure why there is so much doubt. It makes perfect sense.,flip,increase,False,True,1555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T03:14:18.070000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"hmm well then i expect a bit more of a spread than was initially pricing, but still these things seem +highly + correla",flip,decrease,False,True,1590.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:20:18.583000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I was thinking that very thing.,flip,hold,False,True,1555.9877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T13:35:18.961000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Why is your description a list of government obligations and not a link or quote about “military operational control”?,hold,decrease,False,True,8000.987,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-06T20:47:05.268000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,This looks like minor skirmsih as opposed to war. Arab countries generally just lob rockets at Israel all the time. This,decrease,increase,False,True,18246.7833,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:27:35.042000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"The claims have yet to be independently verified, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov slamming the reports as “fake new",increase,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-12-07T18:56:21.307000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,We will need the 2024 version of this market,hold,flip,False,True,8.3332,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-30T09:30:48.961000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Here is a new CNN clip with a reporter on the ground and an Israeli military spokesman who is trying to tell him/us that,decrease,hold,False,True,3260.7661,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-12T16:55:22.187000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,agreed. I don't know how hard it would be to take strongholds underground though. Not sure what's the relevant reference,hold,decrease,False,True,210.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-12T19:24:24.067000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"I mean, don't consider those rumors. They came from a NYT publication with the backing of an Israeli journalist from yne",increase,increase,True,True,294.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-21T03:10:44.228000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"""Pentagon chief says he cannot confirm reports North Korean troops in Russia for possible Ukraine deployment"" +https://",increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T13:27:46.960000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,can you be more specific? Would an image model with a GPT-style architecture be an LLM to you?,decrease,decrease,True,True,387.3065,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:00:32.226000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"obvs. but this article tells its regulated by china in some ways. right? +""But the Cyberspace Administration of China ru",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-27T23:52:47.878000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I think I'm probably screwed based on our earlier disagreements and the small amount of remaining time, but yes, the IDF",hold,decrease,False,True,8000.987,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:24:12.747000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Read the actual Haaretz link and learn how to use +archive.is + to get around paywalls. +https://archive.is/QrKY5 +“Ano",increase,increase,True,True,1400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T14:31:04.877000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You're misunderstanding why people say these things about Israel. It's not because they think that Israel should just si,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T01:14:59.830000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"I agree with the way this market has been run, and I believe it has not met the original criteria and + has been fantas",increase,hold,False,True,704.6708,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T15:14:38.890000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"Oh, yeah, I can only see the positions they currently hold, but 12 days ago is still long enough for me to suspect they'",decrease,decrease,True,True,67.5574,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T18:42:39.565000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Some more questions. And when I say your position I just mean where you stand right now, not how you'll resolve the mark",flip,decrease,False,True,118.1571,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-31T15:10:10.703000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,I think they all just assume Hanania’s bias will significantly outweigh all available evidence.,hold,decrease,False,True,39636.5527,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T14:05:58.905000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,For the journalists own safety,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T22:27:04.612000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"with all due respect, the evidence looks overwhelming. It's just shy of them catching them in the act of using it.",decrease,increase,False,True,23383.507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-14T18:50:13.627000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"It isn't going to happen. If it was, it would have already, and Israel will be done in Gaza before December.",hold,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-07T23:32:40.201000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Hezbollah claims they'll cross the border if Israel launches a ground operation in Gaza, yet that market is at 97% and t",flip,hold,False,True,51.9483,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-28T20:42:23.026000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"They used different samples from the same dataset, but these samples are very different from each other. The original st",decrease,decrease,True,True,410.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:55:51.110000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"ACTUALLY, i guess THIS could count 😏 +https://steiermark.neos.eu/blog/historisch-erste-von-einer-kuenstlichen-intellige",flip,increase,False,True,162.1002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-24T23:57:10.853000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Yeah 100%. That’s the beauty (and pain) of manifold. It’s just my 2c.,hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-12T18:50:24.387000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"In most regions, yes. In this conflict, not really. A wartime action in this border is necessarily massive in order to d",increase,decrease,False,True,294.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T03:14:35.864000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"Is there a compelling reason to resolve the market as ""N/A""? +The main reason to do this would be on the basis that the ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1177.8432,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-14T05:21:15.657000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Back at the beginning of the year I realised Hanania was quite likely going to resolve YES. So I took a big loss and fli,flip,decrease,False,True,2696.3267,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T02:19:43.789000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I should specify a little bit on what I mean. (Complete respect to you by the way) It seems like you've made claims with,increase,decrease,False,True,7.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:17:08.954000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"An individual politician making a campaign ad shouldn't count in any case, by my understanding.",decrease,hold,False,True,5928.2746,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T04:14:57.220000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"it sounds like he's saying that under the hospital was only a storage facility. If this is confirmed, doesn't that lead ",flip,decrease,False,True,7767.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T05:46:40.366000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,they're putting out the propaganda because they want to prevent the legal famine. i'm personally okay with famine preven,flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T02:04:29.546000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Needless to say I wouldn't be happy if Israel had reacted to 10/7 by killing all 2 million Gazans and then saving 4 mill,increase,decrease,False,True,900.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T16:43:38.442000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"frankly if it was true I would have expected them to do a better clean up job, and that there would be even less evidenc",hold,decrease,False,True,130.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-30T20:56:44.186000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,I did. He is also rather sensible to the fact that Palestinians would be far better off if they would dial back on the t,hold,hold,True,True,40875.8676,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:23:41.171000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"A further clarification question for + could be... is Palestine considered a nation state for the purposes of this mark",increase,increase,True,True,1500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:46:42.199000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I think if I get proof from some advertisement agency friends in my bubble working on political accounts for the next el,flip,increase,False,True,162.1002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T18:25:24.582000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Interesting! I also didn't know Barak's English was so bad.,hold,hold,True,True,186.4604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-29T12:12:34.306000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Reuters reported on November 23 that a large number of the 11,000 North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast are still finishin",flip,decrease,False,True,730.2676,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T02:15:00.960000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,ye Hanania is like the polar opposite of the JVP types,hold,hold,True,True,970.1102,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-26T18:58:14.207000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Double checking: red marks mean it does not qualify or it might?,hold,hold,True,True,277.5641,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T09:59:43.627000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Is there anything new in this reporting? We already knew there were tunnels with what seemed to be an office in them and,increase,hold,False,True,9.3322,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-27T01:00:16.782000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Oh right. The only reason the resolution changed is because I misreported too early. Will update to end of year.,flip,hold,False,True,2531.5759,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-12T17:58:23.686000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Why put before the invasion then? Why not just say in the international recognized boarders of Ukraine under internation,decrease,hold,False,True,168.8051,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T17:35:15.875000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,">90% seems way to high given the information provided. +https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/23/world/russia-ukraine-war",decrease,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:46:14.803000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You replied in two places so I'll just respond in the one place. This is not a defense of Israel because I agree with ev,flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T18:05:24.685000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Won’t say whether it is the same deal, or how different the ceasefire from Hamas is",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T00:57:29.475000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"i have a pretty high threshold for blocking, but supporting a terrorist organization that would like to literally kill m",decrease,increase,False,True,2461.8524,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T19:46:02.385000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"So this guy claims to be working for the Israeli government: +https://jewishinsider.com/2023/10/hananya-naftali-spokesm",increase,increase,True,True,1500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T05:02:30.238000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"So ""This market will settle as YES if credible reporting confirms the existence of a command center underneath the hospi",increase,decrease,False,True,1003.624,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T03:26:47.623000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I think there's some conjuntion fallacy going on, where ""replicate the observations and confirms that the standard model",decrease,decrease,True,True,340.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:32:16.598000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,he is only going by the legal definition of famine as per the IPC. It's not a famine in this regard. just mass hunger. o,flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-12T12:09:17.103000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I assume anyone buying no in the 60s hasn't read OPs comments.,increase,hold,False,True,326.3779,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T03:39:15.206000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I think it's quite impressive how polite and reasonable people are here, considering the amount of emotion associated wi",decrease,hold,False,True,7767.6235,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-22T16:23:44.687000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-22/us-push-for-release-of-hostages-delays-israeli-ground-war-but-won-t-s,flip,increase,False,True,270.0156,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:50:52.891000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"They are ramping up their deployment. They had widthdrawn quite a bit, but presumably this is for Rafah as the invasio",flip,flip,True,True,190.2625,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:34:50.091000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Yep. You can, in theory, use an LLM to brush your teeth in the morning.",decrease,hold,False,True,226.0876,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:51:11.617000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Come to think of it. Big Dentistry will generate propaganda through our toothbrushes before we know it.,increase,hold,False,True,147.0863,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T00:19:51.354000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,once again i don't have the capital to close the statistical arbitrage between this market and the other ones (which is ,flip,decrease,False,True,1590.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T20:19:27.754000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/04/10/middleeast/hamas-israel-hostages-ceasefire-talks-intl +Last mont",decrease,decrease,True,True,163.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T15:42:00.629000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,llm detectors do not work though lol,hold,decrease,False,True,1864.2104,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T15:29:26.648000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Right, I agree. The problem is that Richard Hanania wrote ""If no evidence emerges by that time"", and that's a ridiculou",hold,hold,True,True,970.8916,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-31T15:30:20.972000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Yes that could be it. +But I scrolled through his twitter feed and he seems like a fair person trying to separate facts",hold,decrease,False,True,3265.7661,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T01:43:13.087000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"John Kirby, the spox of the US National Security Council has said the same.",increase,increase,True,True,6615.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-14T07:32:24.899000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,can you link it? I might be able to ID it.,hold,hold,True,True,354.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-19T01:39:53.666000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"the evidence is that tons of western spy agencies are publicly saying it is happening, and this far in this conflict tha",increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T20:19:48.987000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,especially worrying is the new cam footage showing arrival of abductees at the place. It's not like they are 100% totes ,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T04:47:51.305000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,how do you think this should resolve if it was some Hamas commander who got wounded and did some commanding from his hos,flip,decrease,False,True,7767.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-11T18:58:17.269000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"4chan (beware!): +>A suspected North Korean soldier was struck by a drone belonging to the ""Peaky Blinders"" UAV unit in ",hold,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T21:36:49.842000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,UN interposition force on some reasonable line separating mostly Palestinian from mostly Israeli land. Does not have to ,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T20:41:26.152000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"But that's normal as well, and still binary. See PredictIt or Kalshi.",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-30T23:32:16.611000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"If you used any timezone other than local time in Gaza, I think people would not be very happy!",increase,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T21:32:46.233000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"For the record I agree that Metaculus market is not identical to this one. But if it resolves Yes, this market should ce",hold,hold,True,True,97.0394,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T19:05:16.282000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"That's not my argument. I was just saying that +even at the time of the comment +, if you by the actual text of the re",hold,hold,True,True,970.8916,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-26T18:32:41.081000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Not sure where that came from but DALL·E's model is an implementation of GPT-3 (which is an LLM) with 12 billion paramet,hold,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:51:20.319000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Yeah I'm seeing nothing more that warnings, research, and hypotheticals here. Gotta sleep soon but I don't think this re",increase,increase,True,True,1502.8046,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-06T18:00:05.574000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"""i was not convinced there was famine"" +Would the IPC--the leading experts in the world in aid--convince you? +https://",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T14:17:29.317000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,wouldn't this be an update toward yes?,hold,increase,False,True,970.1102,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T13:25:53.163000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,It costs 800$ for Hamas to get a rocket and 40 000$ for Israel to get a rocket that can destroy the first rocket (if luc,hold,decrease,False,True,157.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T10:47:50.837000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You likely can't but you should refer to more credible reports and take evidence provided by both sides with a grain of ,increase,decrease,False,True,265.5206,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T02:39:23.566000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I think the main issue is the phrase ""confirms that the standard model of gravity breaks down."" The observations themsel",flip,decrease,False,True,67.5574,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-09-09T16:19:20.451000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I remember qatching a video version of this report where they showed team Jorge boasting about their newly added LLM cap,decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:42:02.866000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Actually... Google Translate is an LLM behind the scenes. Pretty sure that's against the spirit of the question, but tec",increase,decrease,False,True,1429.8095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T21:13:51.837000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"i mean i'm not flat yet haha, was hoping this would happen +i had a limit in, just added a few more at different levels",flip,increase,False,True,1076.5187,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T13:38:45.478000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"not pro-Palestine, but in theory Jews could just decide to disband Israel and become a stateless ethnicity once again",increase,decrease,False,True,157.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:09:11.115000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"it saw a declassified document about their assessment, not about any actual evidence",flip,decrease,False,True,7792.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-30T22:14:57.155000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Wow, what an unbelievably useless way to spend your time. That comment is of considerably worse quality than what chat g",increase,increase,True,True,800.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:25:38.269000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It's not a genocide. +https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-the-icj-determine-that-israel +Hamas offered all of the hosta",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T22:08:01.735000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Ridiculous. Moving the goalposts again. Where are they supposed to take injured hostages exactly other than the hospital,hold,increase,False,True,16518.6534,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-30T20:23:45.771000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"If the article is right that a secret Hamas command center was discovered under Al-Shifa hospital in 2014, would it be s",decrease,decrease,True,True,3260.7661,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-03T19:26:54.631000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,I can't believe people thought he would declare war in this stupid hyped up speech. That's the worst possible time! You ,decrease,increase,False,True,5657.2782,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T20:22:13.764000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,tbh im not sure which side you're on based on that comment,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-11T12:33:44.175000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"could be them conflating ""fighters"" with non-combatant Hamas affiliated Gazans to reach such high number. The effect of ",hold,decrease,False,True,210.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-27T17:47:31.863000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"why not? Image generators are also LLMs... +DALL·E (stylized as DALL·E), DALL·E 2, and DALL·E 3 are text-to-image model",hold,hold,True,True,34.6325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T00:20:42.141000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"It seems obvious that it refers to replicability as the foundation of the scientific method, which requires an independe",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-24T11:55:06.184000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"And here's AP also reporting it: +https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-poland-yoon-duda-north-korea-russia-troop-depl",flip,increase,False,True,851.3277,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-10-03T16:27:59.969000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,OPs acc was deleted. Is there a way to auto resolve?,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:07:44.711000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,read description - this does not resolve based on claims of Israeli or US intelligence,flip,decrease,False,True,7792.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T02:06:12.020000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"""Peaceful protest would have worked in the 1960s"" +How about just accepting a two-state solution in the 2000s when Israe",increase,decrease,False,True,900.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T13:45:10.657000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,basically following up on comments on this market I entered the youtube rabbit hole of settler VS Palestinian confrontat,hold,decrease,False,True,1.1838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:14:36.381000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,It is quite funny that they removed Surovikin as head of airborne forces and then they shot down his plane literally the,flip,flip,True,True,2941.344,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T04:41:21.239000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Is there a higher resolution image? I wanna poke around,flip,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:10:45.689000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"yep, but do you really think that will move Hanania's needle? He wants credible reporting. Not Israeli intelligence clai",flip,decrease,False,True,7792.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:15:50.073000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"The US helped invade ISIS yes? US invaded Germany, and more Germans died in WWII than Americans, yes? More Japanese di",increase,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-04T21:57:56.894000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"So the IDF is targeting civilians without orders or leaders? +The IDF is manifestly targeting civilians, and has been f",hold,increase,False,True,119.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T19:32:54.170000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Nah, disagree. LLM outputs are basically free at this point, everyone's using them for everything, someone paid by a gov",hold,flip,False,True,1864.2104,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-02T08:40:58.737000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"The criteria are different. That prediction is >=100 deaths. Yours is ""sustained combat effort."" The sort of sporadic vi",increase,decrease,False,True,189.8124,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T19:44:27.142000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Didn’t Henry explicitly say he was 50/50 some time ago? He also is hearing both sides. But yeah I get the sense he lea,increase,decrease,False,True,2450.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T03:05:02.956000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"If you look in Richard Hanania's likes on his X page, you can see he liked this post. Seems like a good sign he will res",decrease,increase,False,True,165.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T17:04:39.881000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Yeah I think state-controlled media is an extension of a nation state by common understanding, and also propaganda can b",increase,increase,True,True,2200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T22:31:11.437000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Dang, my 51% limit order filled already. Do all you YES guys have uncles in Hezbollah?",hold,increase,False,True,800.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-04-02T18:47:39.113000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,The café that Yevgeny Prigozhin used to own just got blown up.,increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:51:43.384000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"It's a large language model for sure, and it uses a very similar architecture. The main difference between a generative ",increase,hold,False,True,1629.8095,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T03:48:05.801000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I mean, if the question resolves contrary to the description, then I'll lose a bunch of mana. It's happened before, it'l",decrease,decrease,True,True,340.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T20:19:55.486000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"alright well this position is way too big for something like that +my fault for spread trading a market with no descript",flip,decrease,False,True,1316.9129,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-06T15:23:24.961000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"as soon as I read ""Russian disinformation"" I knew I could bet NO.",increase,increase,True,True,1283.8681,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-24T17:47:48.655000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,when the tail of the plane lands couple kilometers away the accident is unlikely.,hold,decrease,False,True,5.3058,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T06:10:10.104000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,How do you reconcile the positions “the IDF is so clearly faking evidence” and “the IDF didn’t nearly show enough eviden,hold,increase,False,True,4000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:53:15.973000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"a popular and pretty good source, though maybe he could stop posting the terrorist videos. +https://twitter.com/sentde",flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:28:03.158000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Actually I believe it's due to limit orders.,hold,decrease,False,True,2200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-06T18:05:04.019000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Israel has never offered a two-state solution that would allow Palestine to maintain a standing military."" +That is an ",flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T02:21:19.420000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"This ""mass starvation"" has killed fewer than 160 out of 2 million Gazans, as per Hamas. That's 0.08% of the population.",increase,increase,True,True,900.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-06T06:12:24.712000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Israel has been very serious in the past about withdrawing the settlers for peace. They did it in the Sinai. +Palestini",hold,increase,False,True,3200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:50:42.699000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,which hostages are you talking about? Israeli or Palestinian?,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T06:06:03.071000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I agree with that, hence why I bet NO originally. Unfortunately, this is now a market on how the creator interprets his ",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T16:10:40.299000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The question is, will the market maker resolve it yes based upon the evidence already provided that it has already come ",decrease,decrease,True,True,2200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T17:29:36.004000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"i don't think it's similar at all, it's regarding the same topic but with totally different criteria...",decrease,hold,False,True,9074.7599,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T19:02:43.917000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"ChatGPT + is + being used to twist things in a deceptive manner though, the same as (the surely, most esteemed) Bai Meng",increase,increase,True,True,10629.7988,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-13T19:25:31.332000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Bibi cannot keep this up, because he will eventually lose support. When the army puts out things like this to the public",hold,increase,False,True,351.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-11T22:15:05.832000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Contrary to what one might think, he likes to maintain appearances to the end, whether in matters of democracy or intern",hold,hold,True,True,12.7249,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:06:26.655000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"true, while ""the parliament"" is a place where elected representatives pass laws, make political decisions, and +oversee",flip,decrease,False,True,162.1002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T18:55:55.391000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Soooo… the resolution criteria has essentially changed?🫠,increase,decrease,False,True,220.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T20:06:34.954000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"He falsely accused me of being an alt, called me an asshole, a thief and said I should be banned. Keep in mind I don't e",decrease,hold,False,True,165.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-26T19:55:17.567000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I agree it should stay open until confirmed with DNA since they have the bodies apparently. Russia is not very trustwort,flip,decrease,False,True,2531.5759,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-16T13:24:13.588000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"How would be resolved if the current level of hostilities will be sustained? Would that qualify as a ""sustained combat e",decrease,decrease,True,True,147.5313,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T03:39:06.055000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"If you scroll down to the creator's previous comments, ""confirms that the standard model of gravity breaks down"" doesn't",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2e1f1e6840dab6c847ac70dc38f8ce460b0aea1a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,216 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T19:02:02.631000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Assuming those are new tunnels and not some of the structures left behind by the IDF in the 80's, maybe one of them lead",decrease,decrease,True,True,1599.6767,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T20:28:42.104000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,the results have been verified. Resolve as yes,decrease,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T18:41:13.863000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,I have created a different question that hopefully gets at the spirt of the question while having a less ambiguous resol,decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:06:26.655000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"true, while ""the parliament"" is a place where elected representatives pass laws, make political decisions, and +oversee",flip,decrease,False,True,162.1002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T05:23:30.161000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"In fact, correction, ""wired for computers."" Not computers, but a room predisposed for computers. They found a bunker out",increase,decrease,False,True,1003.624,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-13T15:49:38.652000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,some colour to your current views would be helpful,hold,hold,True,True,38566.4505,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-29T13:17:19.796000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"True, but that's why we have neutral observers and they seem very skeptical. We're nowhere near 90%, right now, based on",increase,decrease,False,True,872.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-03T18:31:58.215000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Is it not + who is reasoning from price? Or are you just replying to my comment?",decrease,hold,False,True,845.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:04:46.263000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I think this market is specifically about evidence that is additional to claims by Israeli intelligence, and it is impli",flip,hold,False,True,7792.6235,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-31T21:40:40.340000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Shouldn’t the “Hanania is an absolute contrarian wildcard” people think this is closer to 50/50?,hold,decrease,False,True,982.6266,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:56:28.021000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66727459 +maybe this was posted before (sry didnt look through 222 comments) +but I ",flip,decrease,False,True,90.3719,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-10T19:21:30.693000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"From other than a VICE article: +https://phys.org/news/2023-08-smoking-gun-evidence-gravity-gaia-wide.html",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:16:46.102000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"OK, lots of talk about Synthesia, trying to narrow this down a bit more. +I found a propaganda video right on the Synthe",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:29:35.197000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Any thoughts so far? The suspense is killing me,decrease,hold,False,True,13035.3503,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-22T16:23:44.687000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-22/us-push-for-release-of-hostages-delays-israeli-ground-war-but-won-t-s,flip,increase,False,True,270.0156,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:46:14.803000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You replied in two places so I'll just respond in the one place. This is not a defense of Israel because I agree with ev,flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T21:10:50.563000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Since the sand was placed there there hasnt been access through that point. While technically the market should resolve ,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-07-15T03:06:46.034000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Like why not show video of the meeting with Putin? Cause it didn’t happen. Why make up the story it happened? Because hi,hold,increase,False,True,2686.1013,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:58:47.572000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I am not sure about any of this but its plausible,decrease,decrease,True,True,798.6749,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T19:38:17.563000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Sri Lanka beat the LLTE yes? +https://x.com/ItaiCellier/status/1952162828900614168 +I also don't think that Hamas is get",increase,increase,True,True,1400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T06:15:11.958000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"@thatcher1215 + alright so some clarifications based what the author has said elsewhere: +you (the resolver) claim elsew",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:01:42.897000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Resolving this with the metaculus market is a pretty credible thing to do if folks refuse to admit an invasion has occur,flip,decrease,False,True,190.2625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:34:50.091000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Yep. You can, in theory, use an LLM to brush your teeth in the morning.",flip,hold,False,True,226.0876,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T17:44:16.384000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/13/politics/al-shifa-hospital-us-intelligence/index.html +Hamas has command node under A",hold,flip,False,True,1010.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-29T17:41:56.820000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Yeah I felt like I was taking crazy pills re: the switch from the description and “providing” to military occupational c,decrease,hold,False,True,7818.2496,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T17:21:20.883000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"That makes sense, but I wouldn't say that's contrary. Real usage of AI is increasing, and purported usage is also increa",flip,hold,False,True,226.0876,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T19:31:52.184000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I guess to be more specific, I'm counting the ~6 drones, 12 laptops, and 12 radios from the IDF videos and pictures as b",increase,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T19:35:25.486000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Only if you solely consider the API costs. The real costs of adopting and integrating a new technology at a significantl,flip,hold,False,True,8748.7092,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-29T14:39:08.319000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"POWs? No. Hostages, though? It was my understanding that Hamas was trying to use the hostages as human shields to discou",hold,hold,True,True,106.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T10:12:49.752000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Well, this market says it's based on a consensus of credible media reporting including the NYT. In any case, why do you",hold,hold,True,True,4365.1102,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T22:06:42.867000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I never tried to discredit numbers. But your number of 1200 dead Israelis is just add creditable as the figure of dead 6,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-16T23:58:02.461000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,they have been striking each other for a while,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-12T18:50:24.387000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"In most regions, yes. In this conflict, not really. A wartime action in this border is necessarily massive in order to d",increase,decrease,False,True,294.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T21:47:20.387000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"the federal AirTransport authority of Russia published a list of names +https://t.me/favt_ru/1278 +Propustin Sergey +Mak",flip,flip,True,True,2941.344,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T18:08:54.519000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Dude you still have the purple N in your picture. You couldn't even do that thing correctly,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T15:05:20.486000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,The Metaculus market has resolved YES,increase,hold,False,True,9580.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-19T11:22:01.761000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,the NYT link is in part about the potential lack of deterrence achieved by the US's military posture against Hezbollah/I,hold,decrease,False,True,1600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-01T18:21:52.607000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Negotiations are moving along and the proposed ceasefire is 6 weeks. I think it’s more likely than not that Rafah won’t ,increase,increase,True,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:14:09.064000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm happy to call a bedtime truce and hope + comments by tomorrow",increase,hold,False,True,2003.0373,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:24:05.002000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Not everything that embeds words is a language model. In the machine learning community, an LM or LLM refers to a system",flip,hold,False,True,422.3414,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-06-23T20:54:27.816000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Hmm I'm not liking my position anymore. Seems like a massive overreach from him and something that might get him defenes,decrease,flip,False,True,25.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-04T08:02:22.689000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"So, no prosecutions and no individuals disqualified from office.",hold,hold,True,True,119.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T18:00:26.605000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I don't understand why people are discounting the CN video where they show themselves (allegedly) typing a prompt into C,decrease,increase,False,True,9348.7988,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-12T17:28:21.608000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Well, they understand that and apparently intend to make it way less dense before entering, and then some.",hold,increase,False,True,61.5422,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:29:32.115000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"That’s not at all what the article is about. It’s basically saying, the CCP/PRC is doing with LLMs what it’s done with s",decrease,increase,False,True,275.5273,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-06-23T22:15:54.214000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"Yeah, the market is too high, I am buying NO. It's possible he'd get killed, but I think the most likely outcome is Prig",decrease,increase,False,True,780.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T21:11:38.977000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,the austrian guy is selling its political view about street security for children/scholars and telling he was using LLMS,flip,increase,False,True,862.1002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:17:26.788000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"OK, you're entitled to your opinion. But Hanania's opinion is clearly different - read description",flip,hold,False,True,7792.6235,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:33:39.056000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Huh? Whoever said Arabs are 20% of this sample? You sure it’s a representative sample? +I mean, Jews were credibly acc",increase,decrease,False,True,1400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T01:01:03.715000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"I think the strongest argument is not that the media has a vested interest in whatever, but there might not +be + a poi",hold,decrease,False,True,336.0071,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T01:58:02.564000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,so you're betting YES because you think it really ought to resolve NO? 😂,flip,decrease,False,True,7667.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T03:47:52.872000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,I thought they were from different datasets.,decrease,decrease,True,True,905.2315,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-17T12:40:44.675000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"this was just a general idea regarding negative donations, donating to Hamas is literally illegal in the US",decrease,hold,False,True,3664.6332,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T04:19:34.423000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I know how famines are defined. You may not have read this far, but there's three criteria for a famine: 30% of children",flip,increase,False,True,118.1571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:53:15.973000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"a popular and pretty good source, though maybe he could stop posting the terrorist videos. +https://twitter.com/sentde",flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-28T17:58:52.633000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I see what you are saying on everything they claimed to have discovered, but what you are arguing doesn't completely add",increase,increase,True,True,722.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:21:12.233000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"It says that China is planning to do this, not that they've done this. Look at this quote for example: +> We are closely",increase,decrease,False,True,3179.8095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-26T22:42:19.150000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I think beginning with the prior that group x “lies”, therefore this or that claim is a likely a lie—or the reverse, tha",hold,hold,True,True,2241.3856,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-15T13:26:58.888000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Gaza war to take 'months', Israel tells White House",hold,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T16:51:53.642000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Well there is this +https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/poll-shows-palestinians-back-oct-7-attack-israel-support-",increase,decrease,False,True,1400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:09:08.158000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,John Kirby said the US intelligence is independent of Israeli information and was gathered independently.,hold,increase,False,True,7565.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T20:10:20.893000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,and Question 2? That's the puzzling one,flip,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-13T23:17:02.727000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,I can give you a loan if you want.,hold,hold,True,True,1500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-29T12:12:34.306000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Reuters reported on November 23 that a large number of the 11,000 North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast are still finishin",flip,decrease,False,True,730.2676,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:48:43.803000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,FWIW I was a YES until relatively recently and suggested an example as a positive signal a few weeks back.,hold,decrease,False,True,123.5354,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-05T00:33:33.136000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"We are currently lacking a post consolidating the evidence for the ""YES"" side. I figured I should compile evidence regar",increase,increase,True,True,595.4857,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T13:27:46.960000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,can you be more specific? Would an image model with a GPT-style architecture be an LLM to you?,flip,decrease,False,True,387.3065,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T15:12:54.375000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"This market has a lot of problems with its resolution criteria, but that isn't one of them. It is explicitly +not + ref",decrease,hold,False,True,67.5574,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-28T22:29:13.557000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"12:30 p.m. EST, November 22, 2024 +North Korean military members reported to be in Mariupol and Kharkiv region + From CN",decrease,increase,False,True,563.6571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T03:35:27.337000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"if we're in the business of trust, I think we should trust Hamas most of all, since they'd presumably have the highest q",flip,flip,True,True,7767.6235,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-11T15:59:17.012000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,IDF issued a warning for hundreds of towns and cities in northern Israel to lock in the bomb shelters until further noti,decrease,increase,False,True,442.0581,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T23:47:31.923000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Excuse me, but I was responding to ""The second is that there's more evidence that they used it +solely as a +hospital ",increase,hold,False,True,1003.624,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-01T21:53:55.092000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"You’re right that there are both tunnels and weapons in Gaza. +IDF has copied surveillance footage from Al-Shifa hospit",decrease,decrease,True,True,3265.7661,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-28T15:47:24.390000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"to be clear, I am recommending a resolution",decrease,hold,False,True,36906.4505,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T02:34:42.541000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"You mean this paragraph? +""This type of door is used by the Hamas terrorist organization to block Israeli forces from e",flip,decrease,False,True,186.4604,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-17T16:11:07.660000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"US aid to Israel (basically a subsidy to buy overpriced Lockheed Martin planes that they don't need, just good political",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T16:30:11.589000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"New techniques are being used to engage audiences  +As part of a broad campaign focused on politically divisive topics i",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-01T12:06:52.007000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I think America writ large, and that includes a sizable chunk of the left, is much more predisposed to at least wanting ",increase,increase,True,True,9427.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T04:38:41.884000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Cool it keeps going +away from the hospital +Looks like they found a tunnel, not a command center/command node/respawn ",flip,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-14T02:54:06.378000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"That is, is the increased probability because the existence of "" +computers and communications"" +proves that "" +Hamas e",increase,decrease,False,True,1003.624,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:27:28.595000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I think it depends what caused the cancer. If it is roundup then Monsanto killed your. If it is your genetics then i don,flip,hold,False,True,1555.9877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T18:27:54.121000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"While AI usage might not be definitive yet, there are numerous credible reports, some from gov agencies, connecting this",decrease,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:18:38.935000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,What's the basis for thinking that this pattern is common? Does this occur frequently?,decrease,decrease,True,True,2200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-23T20:44:55.646000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Ukrainian media on NK troops in Kharkiv: +https://united24media.com/latest-news/no-north-korean-troops-in-kharkiv-region",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-28T17:52:57.251000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Is every location that 1% of the hostages were brought to a command center?,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-15T04:00:33.196000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"I have the same opinion of Al-Jazeera as you, but I do think that whether or not the Qatari government or even Hamas the",hold,decrease,False,True,335.0071,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T05:06:58.023000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"He claims he quit, and the GHF claims he was fired. I don't know why I would uncritically accept the GHF's claims here w",flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T15:42:17.790000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"kinda like NK. Everyone’s still starving and largely neglected/subjugated by the ruling party, but the Kims/Hamas are in",hold,hold,True,True,85.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T15:24:18.092000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I would avoid using ""football field"" as a unit of measurement, and maybe look at the pictures and realize that obviously",increase,decrease,False,True,1003.624,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-14T22:35:02.941000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"It was a response to: ""or in its immediate vicinity""",increase,hold,False,True,1003.624,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-29T01:12:44.840000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"The IDF has several hospital employees, including the director, in custody. Most hostages have yet to speak publicly. T",increase,decrease,False,True,2251.3856,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T03:33:44.983000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"seems like it depends whether israel are intent on it being just a siege or if they plan to move in, i think that's most",flip,decrease,False,True,1590.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-15T01:04:00.799000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"You could do that, or you could just sell all your shares and it should work.",hold,flip,False,True,173.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-16T15:20:48.325000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"is there a way to shorten links? +Anyhow, I didn't expect this. I guess the attempt is to cause maximum confusion.",hold,decrease,False,True,333.5308,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T06:08:36.309000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"A bit soon to call that a ""sustained combat effort""",decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T04:36:30.301000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Beyond the blast door they finally managed to open:,hold,increase,False,True,6400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-16T08:46:25.876000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"to offer some counter to this - the Iran leadership isn't taken as very trustworthy. +That, and this doesn't really take",hold,decrease,False,True,333.5308,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T16:53:43.975000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"What I think people are missing is that +even in private + a propagandist wouldn’t say “propaganda” in their prompt, be",increase,increase,True,True,1500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T21:31:13.334000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"yes. it is bayesian evidence, not definitive evidence",hold,decrease,False,True,5155.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T22:11:47.137000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,The only opinions that matter are the journalists working for the four news sources listed in the description. Please sp,hold,hold,True,True,22873.6534,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T19:15:49.725000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,it links to a video released by the idf though,increase,decrease,False,True,4955.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T17:35:55.822000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"in that case they would not publish more scraps of evidence, not wanting to draw attention to the whole thing, publishin",hold,increase,False,True,970.1102,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T21:33:27.442000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Woah hang on I didn't realize who was running this market. +In the words of everyone's favorite over-moneyed manchild, """,flip,decrease,False,True,800.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T01:26:40.983000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,I agree mostly but communication equipment would be the first thing they would move out.,increase,decrease,False,True,430.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T20:40:18.021000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,You are not making good arguments. Not even close.,increase,decrease,False,True,8168.6534,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T18:38:56.607000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,Yes. They saw what happened last time. And now that they're more involved in Lebanese politics they have responsbilities,decrease,increase,False,True,154.1922,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:17:21.343000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Like if the Russians didn’t know he was onboard why would they say he was. It makes no sense to lie about this. Are you ,flip,increase,False,True,2555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T04:14:57.220000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"it sounds like he's saying that under the hospital was only a storage facility. If this is confirmed, doesn't that lead ",flip,decrease,False,True,7767.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-16T07:15:27.645000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Israel is evacuating more than 10,000 citizens from towns near the Lebanon border (hebrew +https://www.ynet.co.il/news/",flip,increase,False,True,172.9171,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-12T05:53:42.824000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Vote to change title to Did Israel complete invasion in May 2024,increase,decrease,False,True,433.9814,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-10T19:37:43.988000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"You're right, I didn't think of that! But, in my eyes, war will either break out overnight or it probably won't (that is",increase,decrease,False,True,267.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-18T23:30:21.457000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,It's about time someone posts another article that will cause another spike. C'mon I want my cheap shares.,decrease,increase,False,True,4045.6313,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T17:42:00.925000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Yes, the only evidence about bots, their AI usage, and the link to the Kremlin comes from a bunch of unnamed Russian ""mi",hold,decrease,False,True,2956.2935,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-16T23:52:38.359000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,I feel that Hezbollah is incentivized not to do that and have Lebanon destroyed and the US declaring war on them. I als,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:13:25.841000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"That’s models parroting existing propaganda, not generating it.",decrease,hold,False,True,265.5273,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-01T13:43:13.551000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,It’s also not action by a nation state. It fails both of the main conditions for resolution.,hold,increase,False,True,917.5641,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T15:13:29.762000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"We've gone from ""it's racist to suggest Hamas would use suicide vests"" to ""Well actually there haven't been any successf",hold,decrease,False,True,655.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T15:07:38.269000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,This is one element that has to be weighed together with others. I don’t think it is productive to get into the details ,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T21:26:54.309000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Sorry for the nerd moment but Bayes did not invent Bayesian Inference, he just happened to be the first to write and use",decrease,hold,False,True,186.4604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-28T15:29:04.331000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"And here is what a recognized expert says about whether this is replication of the paper in OP question: +""A similar res",increase,increase,True,True,74.9303,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:45:08.036000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it clearly and openly states ""The questions raised by the Committee for the Future of the Finnish Parliament are related",flip,decrease,False,True,162.1002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:39:49.247000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Alright, but it would be better to just use an estimate from an organization that's an expert on this stuff. The World F",flip,increase,False,True,118.1571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:38:20.488000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,It was under 50 because one person bought 100M no right at the start before more liquidity was added,decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-22T16:36:43.741000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"To be super clear, Q resolution is based on credible evidence IN ADDITION to IDF's claims - so, IDF claims are not suffi",hold,increase,False,True,330.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T18:07:36.136000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"I can also say that, since publishing, the aggregate probability on this is increasing due to these statements: +And +f",flip,increase,False,True,17.5064,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-03T18:09:03.650000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Both Yes and No people think different things. That's not a good recipe,hold,decrease,False,True,38486.4505,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:14:55.435000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,It has been reported he was on board by every major western news outlet. There isn’t gonna be some international investi,flip,increase,False,True,2555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T17:34:00.691000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,he is just spamming this market like a mad man. I can't stand it,increase,hold,False,True,17728.6534,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T01:24:16.732000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"NYT says that US intelligence points to yes according to US intelligence agencies, not that the intelligence points to y",flip,decrease,False,True,6211.7326,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-30T16:11:11.097000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,To try and maybe make this more productive rather than just me venting I tried going through all 600 comments and gather,hold,increase,False,True,4000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:16:40.727000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Iran? Bombing Iran in the 12 day war was very good. Do you mean our minor role in Churchill overthrowing Mossadegh? ,increase,increase,True,True,900.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T02:43:55.755000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,">“property of IDF” on the shrink wrap. +Source? are you referring to something real?",increase,decrease,False,True,430.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-17T23:31:49.682000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"He said they found stuff 2 floors below +https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israel-says-hamas-tunnel-found-at-al-s",increase,decrease,False,True,70.8916,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-18T06:46:14.652000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I hope everyone betting here has figured this out already - The reason this hasn't resolved yet is not because there are,hold,increase,False,True,8248.7092,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T16:18:46.715000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/10/13/Israeli-shelling-hits-army-observation-post-in-south-Lebanon-T,decrease,increase,False,True,105.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T23:33:41.086000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,isn't the fact that they don't allow any press to cover the 'war' enough for you?,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T05:02:30.238000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"So ""This market will settle as YES if credible reporting confirms the existence of a command center underneath the hospi",increase,decrease,False,True,1003.624,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T21:13:51.837000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"i mean i'm not flat yet haha, was hoping this would happen +i had a limit in, just added a few more at different levels",flip,increase,False,True,1076.5187,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T05:02:50.892000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Clearly some people think this should count, and some people don't. I'm not certain which group FUH will fall in, and I'",increase,decrease,False,True,6598.341,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T02:48:03.604000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,OMG I don’t have any money to pay Nathan not comment! Someone please throw him 100 mana otherwise brace for an onslaught,hold,decrease,False,True,40650.787,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T02:51:59.908000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Panfilo. You yourself said. The map here showing reported Israeli clearing operations across 10% or more of Rafah: +htt",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-13T23:02:36.134000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,The tunnel network was built prior to Hamas being in power.,hold,hold,True,True,119.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:03:00.500000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,The fundamental problem though is it feels like this market is being defined in real time based on changing circumstance,flip,decrease,False,True,190.2625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-08T19:47:33.866000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,I wonder what others think. You explained clearly in the first paragraph of the description. I am certainly no expert in,hold,hold,True,True,110.0156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T18:04:30.341000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://twitter.com/2023gazawar/status/1790396949402665336 +Gaza war unit tracker +@2023gazawar +#Rafah + map update: (1",increase,increase,True,True,712.5507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:11:20.152000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I have no problem resolving now. I am not sure why there is so much doubt. It makes perfect sense.,flip,increase,False,True,1555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:36:43.596000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,(I've bought most of my NO shares around 80%),hold,hold,True,True,123.5354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T16:59:29.352000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-says-it-accepts-ceasefire-proposal-after-israel-announces-rafah-opera,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-13T23:05:28.883000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,where are you guys getting this info from?,decrease,decrease,True,True,38566.4505,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:19:39.472000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,It would be nice to link to a verified source or collection of sources which explains the acronyms and different termino,decrease,decrease,True,True,2200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T03:05:02.956000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"If you look in Richard Hanania's likes on his X page, you can see he liked this post. Seems like a good sign he will res",decrease,increase,False,True,165.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-21T16:14:54.104000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"BBC.COM + +South Korea has summoned the Russian ambassador, seeking the ""immediate withdrawal"" of North Korean troops w",increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T09:34:49.475000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Scenario 1. Palestinians should do whatever they can to prevent Palestinian attacks on Israel. If Palestinians were non ,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T22:08:32.836000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,My two cents. If we go by Wikipedia there were about 2 million Palestinians in Gaza and 3 million in the West Bank in 20,hold,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T00:29:44.915000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Feel free to ask for any sources on claims, I don't feel like searching right now for each and every claim, but I can lo",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:56:03.573000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"you’re not understanding the difference between threat 5 and 1, where 1 is a nexus line type of deal (without applicatio",increase,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T11:57:30.281000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"The images, which bear a striking resemblance to the early stages of Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza last year, show th",flip,flip,True,True,190.2625,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T00:20:42.141000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"It seems obvious that it refers to replicability as the foundation of the scientific method, which requires an independe",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-24T17:15:52.874000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"I agree, no need to be hasty, on the other hand we should not get blocked from the resolution. It is always possible to ",decrease,decrease,True,True,99.198,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-14T01:09:41.757000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Why should the amount you bought it at make any difference?,decrease,hold,False,True,221.8253,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..67fa51b7bbe919a5e12f869c6c13671773d623fd --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,220 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-24T17:15:52.874000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"I agree, no need to be hasty, on the other hand we should not get blocked from the resolution. It is always possible to ",decrease,decrease,True,True,99.198,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T04:34:31.975000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,would rocket launches across the border count?,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-19T01:43:09.573000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Then I'm not sure where you're going with this?,hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-12T22:59:30.837000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,I think this market could be in interesting case study in how prediction markets have their own dynamics. The news I am ,increase,decrease,False,True,1005.9381,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T14:10:20.684000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,correct. I wish I got out of that position and now i need to walk 100k steps to see how difficult it is,decrease,decrease,True,True,40876.4505,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-06T18:00:05.574000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"""i was not convinced there was famine"" +Would the IPC--the leading experts in the world in aid--convince you? +https://",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-06T16:34:03.759000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Yeah there are several similar markets but this one's description seems to set a higher bar (which I think is good to di,decrease,hold,False,True,1972.3041,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T17:04:39.881000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Yeah I think state-controlled media is an extension of a nation state by common understanding, and also propaganda can b",increase,increase,True,True,2200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T13:56:10.630000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I think you mean ""betting"" but want to clarify and + Please give an example if you don't mind",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-03T20:58:28.130000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Anymore? There hasn’t been moral high ground left in the area since it was part of the Ottoman Empire.,hold,hold,True,True,119.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T02:48:30.762000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"Yes, which is part of why this market was initially so low. I think the probability of MOND actually being true is alrea",flip,increase,False,True,67.5574,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T17:27:21.293000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"I think 'large scale' is pretty important. If the IDF takes one inch past any of the coordinates, Metaculus resolves yes",decrease,increase,False,True,9074.7599,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T18:02:47.960000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"They focus on a different timeframe, and it's about Israel-Hezbollah fatalities rather than declarations of war, but Swi",flip,increase,False,True,17.5064,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:34:41.272000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Thanks for the suggestion. I have for the longer term horizon ones. (But not that market where it depends on the settlem,increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-06T18:05:04.019000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Israel has never offered a two-state solution that would allow Palestine to maintain a standing military."" +That is an ",flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:24:48.682000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"okay fair enough, I can understand wanting to trade it. Can we open back up please for the good argument + ?",flip,hold,False,True,2555.9877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T01:25:21.561000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Signs of persistent habitation combined with communications equipment, and a lot of weapons probably would’ve convinced ",hold,decrease,False,True,460.6594,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-05T18:40:19.382000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"No, it would be bad to release a bunch of transcripts because that would tell Hamas something, or because it would give ",hold,decrease,False,True,2882.1102,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T02:57:13.937000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I'm in the MOND camp, but I think +everyone + in said camp acknowledges that even with +incredibly + compelling eviden",decrease,decrease,True,True,167.7072,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:32:16.598000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,he is only going by the legal definition of famine as per the IPC. It's not a famine in this regard. just mass hunger. o,flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:16:51.825000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"""One group is occupying and ethnically cleansing Gaza to provide more living room for their ethnicity which is bad."" +Yo",increase,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T21:51:14.780000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I get that the IDF is not the most reliable source, but this is an actual, full video of the tunnels, what else do you w",flip,decrease,False,True,9.3322,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T18:27:17.978000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,It appears according to this to be a different deal that is “quite similar” to Israel’s proposal but with some different,flip,decrease,False,True,65.6841,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-14T05:21:15.657000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Back at the beginning of the year I realised Hanania was quite likely going to resolve YES. So I took a big loss and fli,flip,decrease,False,True,2696.3267,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:34:14.495000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The report and its citations only reach a YES threshold under a very boring definition. If China's regulation qualifies,",flip,decrease,False,True,16.5158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T00:18:00.610000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,imo if i acknowledged all of the casualties and atrocities that israel has committed over the past year as you have in t,hold,increase,False,True,290.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-24T00:46:43.308000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"So does it count as a ""conspiracy theory"" if you think this was not an accident?",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T22:13:34.475000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Sure I do. How else can I put pressure on the market creator to resolve correctly?,increase,hold,False,True,9168.6534,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-09T18:57:40.121000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Thank you, I think this is all good.",hold,hold,True,True,110.0156,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:55:29.683000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Yes, actually I've anchored my recent bets on Mira's, Jacy's, and your positions.",decrease,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T17:08:46.895000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,From waaaay back in the comments:,hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,982.6266,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:21:49.096000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Further discussion, separate track, Shin Bet has its own Bard/ChatGPT as was released at a military conference in June o",increase,increase,True,True,1500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T19:17:37.692000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"like, they're CGId the thing?.. +Are you that high on copium or what?",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T13:35:07.653000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I don't think that's how DALL-E 3 works. Arguably it is what ChatGPT does when you activate DALL-E 3 in the current inte,decrease,hold,False,True,387.3065,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:11:20.152000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I have no problem resolving now. I am not sure why there is so much doubt. It makes perfect sense.,flip,increase,False,True,1555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-03T01:04:20.448000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,You aren’t addressing my arguments but instead saying I am “not truth seeking” but no specific examples? Can you at leas,hold,hold,True,True,32461.1105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T11:36:25.324000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Occupying land and then kicking the natives from it is close to Apartheid which is by no means minor and this issue also,increase,increase,True,True,265.5206,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-01T03:36:40.590000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Everyone’s favorite kitty Rod Carew sadly passed last month and we are all still mourning. Miss him like crazy. He woke ,increase,hold,False,True,39060.5944,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-06T21:21:57.756000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Kursk. That is the only place where Ukraine is actually in Russian territory.,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T03:14:35.864000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"Is there a compelling reason to resolve the market as ""N/A""? +The main reason to do this would be on the basis that the ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1177.8432,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T19:29:25.677000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"the timeline is significantly shorter on this market than that question, so I won't take you up on that I'm afraid! And ",flip,decrease,False,True,17.5064,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:37:46.050000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I wonder if this comment section is what it feels like to be in a Rootclaim Challenge.,hold,hold,True,True,8813.1747,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T20:10:52.699000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1787562636839735661 +Official IDF announcement +The IDF is currently conducting targeted ",decrease,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T03:35:27.337000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"if we're in the business of trust, I think we should trust Hamas most of all, since they'd presumably have the highest q",decrease,flip,False,True,7767.6235,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-26T20:26:52.045000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"all markets on Manifold should only pay out 99% rather than 100, because how can we ever be truly sure.",hold,hold,True,True,657.1888,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:17:21.343000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Like if the Russians didn’t know he was onboard why would they say he was. It makes no sense to lie about this. Are you ,flip,increase,False,True,2555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T18:07:54.916000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,I made a poll to try to identify if the crux of this market is whether the hospital was used by Hamas for military purpo,decrease,decrease,True,True,3645.1565,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:00:32.226000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"obvs. but this article tells its regulated by china in some ways. right? +""But the Cyberspace Administration of China ru",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T03:15:07.752000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"They are quoting the NYT, and they are less politically biased. It's true that reason doesn't have anyone on the ground",hold,hold,True,True,270.8916,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-06T21:21:13.062000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,I want to be clear that Crimea doesn’t count right? More does the Donbas associated with 2014 war.,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T21:00:19.662000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Very possible that Hanania is biased. Hanania is a known contrarian and has extreme views of some subjects. I'm not sure,decrease,decrease,True,True,404.299,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:25:10.843000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Thanks for digging that up. Creator comments should probably pin to the top of the thread. Or at least be a sort option.,flip,hold,False,True,1555.9877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T19:08:47.087000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"why does it matter if they're new?.. +Or, you mean, there's an HQ and IDF knows it because they've built it in the past?",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:28:59.830000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,that'a a less romantic but very plausible explanation,decrease,increase,False,True,123.5354,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:17:26.788000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"OK, you're entitled to your opinion. But Hanania's opinion is clearly different - read description",flip,hold,False,True,7792.6235,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T18:05:24.685000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Won’t say whether it is the same deal, or how different the ceasefire from Hamas is",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-11-16T06:43:38.270000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"the IDF speaker said that 10 battalions were +damaged, +not destroyed. Mind you, the same speaker said that IDF contro",increase,decrease,False,True,1009.2606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:37:05.905000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"[obligatory yadda yadda about how this is tengential] +In the video they ask who financed the establishment of the the l",hold,hold,True,True,8813.1747,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-04T16:38:44.118000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,How do you know what the ratio of Hamas to civilian deaths is? No party has released any numbers on militants killed.,hold,decrease,False,True,2540.9849,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:30:16.273000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Honestly having Gaza join Egypt and the West Bank join Jordan would make more sense at this point. A disconnected state,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T16:59:29.352000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-says-it-accepts-ceasefire-proposal-after-israel-announces-rafah-opera,flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T00:24:57.435000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"I think the current odds are appropriate, I've just been betting on the chance that: +1. +This report is accurate, + th",hold,decrease,False,True,11400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T17:26:27.642000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://twitter.com/N12News/status/1787532837542924730 +Machine translation: The Israeli negotiation team received Hamas",flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-01T21:53:55.092000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"You’re right that there are both tunnels and weapons in Gaza. +IDF has copied surveillance footage from Al-Shifa hospit",hold,decrease,False,True,3265.7661,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T21:05:39.490000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"No the point is that the tunnel would lead to a command center, not that the tunnel itself is such a center.",hold,decrease,False,True,970.8916,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-28T15:29:42.830000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"Again, ""The published result Hernandez obtains is consistent with the result obtained by Chae, relieving a small tension",increase,increase,True,True,74.9303,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:09:11.115000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"it saw a declassified document about their assessment, not about any actual evidence",flip,decrease,False,True,7792.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:21:20.848000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I don’t know but the four recent peaks look similar. It’s probably just random timing of people coming across candidates,decrease,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T14:56:17.590000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"NY Times higher resolution map of evacuation zone covers far more of Rafah. Looks like half to me. +https://archive.is/B",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:39:49.247000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Alright, but it would be better to just use an estimate from an organization that's an expert on this stuff. The World F",flip,increase,False,True,118.1571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T13:17:56.722000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I assume that's why they didn't buy the market to 99.,decrease,decrease,True,True,575.9792,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T01:31:05.051000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Something like that command center that they showed in the news conference on Oct 27. +https://www.reuters.com/world/mid",decrease,hold,False,True,478.9642,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T18:00:26.605000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I don't understand why people are discounting the CN video where they show themselves (allegedly) typing a prompt into C,increase,increase,True,True,9348.7988,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:36:19.795000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm reading this now and it sounds like bots doing astroturfing, but using human written material. That's not new, I thi",increase,hold,False,True,1000.8046,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:33:57.042000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"That says they are ""working on creating,"" but more importantly, I strongly believe that, in the current climate, a compa",decrease,increase,False,True,226.0876,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:56:28.021000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66727459 +maybe this was posted before (sry didnt look through 222 comments) +but I ",flip,decrease,False,True,90.3719,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-01T18:02:39.247000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Meta released its 3rd quarter adversarial threat report recently with no mention of LLMs beyond some hypotheticals. Betw,increase,decrease,False,True,385.4837,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T04:33:39.515000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"BTW, if you're in the MOND camp, I just made a market on dark matter where you can bet on MOND being true.",decrease,hold,False,True,460.8378,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:10:45.689000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"yep, but do you really think that will move Hanania's needle? He wants credible reporting. Not Israeli intelligence clai",flip,decrease,False,True,7792.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:14:36.381000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,It is quite funny that they removed Surovikin as head of airborne forces and then they shot down his plane literally the,flip,flip,True,True,2941.344,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T21:33:24.389000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,He is very very pro Israel. He is a race realist and generally sympathetic to extreme uses of force to solve problems. I,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T20:59:15.234000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,You are desperate. You are better off changing your mind sooner than later.,increase,decrease,False,True,9168.6534,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:07:44.711000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,read description - this does not resolve based on claims of Israeli or US intelligence,flip,decrease,False,True,7792.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T01:40:04.615000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I am not interested in debating hermeneutics, I simply commented that it seems quite obvious to me that when one speaks ",decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-29T20:36:46.066000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The pivot from the word “provide” to “military operational control” (also untrue) is enough for me to just not trust Ers,hold,decrease,False,True,7478.1319,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T16:56:25.781000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Not if Hanania is 90% confident. Anyway, the IDF just released the tunnel and blast door. And that makes you think it'",hold,decrease,False,True,970.1102,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T03:02:25.693000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Source? Arabs can move to rural Jewish towns. There are some Arabs living on the kibbutz. Can you point to prominent ,hold,increase,False,True,4450.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-15T00:28:35.634000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I just want to say, this war is one of those places where relying on secondary evidence is better than looking directly ",increase,hold,False,True,4234.2606,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T20:10:13.658000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"""Read the bible"" ok that's a different israel than today entirely and it's crazy your bringing up events from 2k years a",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-15T00:57:53.328000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,Not sure exactly what Iran would do here. Obviously Iran does not want to get in a war with the US and the US/ISR want t,increase,hold,False,True,86.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T18:43:41.399000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"That poll is totally disconnected from this market, imo the most reasonable response is probably yes & +probably + yes,",increase,decrease,False,True,11600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:14:55.435000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,It has been reported he was on board by every major western news outlet. There isn’t gonna be some international investi,flip,increase,False,True,2555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-11T09:21:57.682000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"the IDF has no reason not too do such things, but Hamas fighters have no incentive to surrender en masse - they know the",hold,hold,True,True,210.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T16:55:03.141000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Yeah maybe Hamas removed the evidence but then this would still resolve NO. I doubt the IDF is waiting, the media is los",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-23T15:20:32.074000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Kursk doesn't count for this - they have to be inside Ukraine.,hold,hold,True,True,1282.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T15:49:10.606000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I do not understand what you are trying to say in the last message you sent. What do you mean by hunger? If you mean lit,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T00:25:48.603000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Hospitals in the US very commonly have trouble with handling the personal effects of patients. The lack of an armory con,hold,increase,False,True,119.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T16:44:20.115000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I don't know, this is pretty convincing (and recent): +https://news.sky.com/story/israel-gaza-latest-hamas-al-shifa-sky",hold,decrease,False,True,970.1102,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-16T17:07:48.161000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"well yeah, but it strikes as a bit of an oddity when we have clashing reports of other Iranian officials saying otherwis",hold,decrease,False,True,333.5308,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-17T23:10:10.512000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,I believe the kids call this copium.,increase,decrease,False,True,4793.8693,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:47:12.838000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Questions for OP +: +do you believe the IPC reports that Gaza is currently in phase 4 food insecurity? +do you believ",flip,decrease,False,True,118.1571,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-03T03:03:41.731000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"and you don't wage an insurrection by taking selfies on the capitol dais, but a significant number of people (even on Ma",hold,decrease,False,True,2400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-05T06:26:49.720000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,All war is horrible. War in an extremely dense area with guerilla warfare is even more horrible for civilians. A ratio o,hold,decrease,False,True,5915.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-07-08T02:04:43.649000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"Wagner boss Prigozhin never went to Belarus, used body double to appear as if he fled Russia: US official - World News (",increase,decrease,False,True,400.7113,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-22T16:23:44.687000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-22/us-push-for-release-of-hostages-delays-israeli-ground-war-but-won-t-s,flip,increase,False,True,270.0156,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T19:15:37.859000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,The periodic waves on the graph are neat. They almost look like seasonal waves of an epidemic. Would be nice if a bot co,decrease,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T14:31:04.877000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You're misunderstanding why people say these things about Israel. It's not because they think that Israel should just si,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:57:48.939000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Yes I think the blockade is indefensible because even if it is preventing Hamas from arming itself it is starving the ci,flip,increase,False,True,118.1571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:43:02.771000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Uhh + and + and + are pro-Israel. Most if not all controversial markets that I've seen on manifold have resolved in ",increase,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T18:07:36.136000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"I can also say that, since publishing, the aggregate probability on this is increasing due to these statements: +And +f",flip,increase,False,True,17.5064,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T17:49:42.016000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"I was prepared to argue his appearances since the coup could have been body doubles, so it’s only fair that extreme skep",increase,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-11T12:54:36.071000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I don't think there is right/wrong option here, just trying to clarify how high the bar is. Reading the description agai",increase,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-06-23T22:15:54.214000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"Yeah, the market is too high, I am buying NO. It's possible he'd get killed, but I think the most likely outcome is Prig",hold,increase,False,True,780.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T14:07:34.942000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I will not be participating in these threads anymore. I am not stuck in a debate, I think I am way ahead (thanks, +) bu",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-01-04T05:58:03.277000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,market goes until 2026 so time will tell,decrease,hold,False,True,376.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T02:51:17.352000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I will respectfully remind you of what you said 21 days ago: +""For this to resolve yes, we don’t need MOND to be confirm",decrease,decrease,True,True,167.7072,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T23:13:51.459000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"As previously stated by me, intent is hard to prove. Killing babies, apartheid, indiscriminate bombings, massacres, fami",hold,increase,False,True,918.6749,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-17T23:20:04.516000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,What is the source for this image?,hold,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T03:01:58.505000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I think even ""astronomically low"" doesn't go far enough, because even if this paper is 100% confirmed in the future, I s",decrease,decrease,True,True,167.7072,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:04:46.263000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I think this market is specifically about evidence that is additional to claims by Israeli intelligence, and it is impli",flip,hold,False,True,7792.6235,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-11T16:59:13.443000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"The IDF just announced it was a system error. +https://t.me/manniefabian/39830",decrease,increase,False,True,1687.9631,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T20:19:55.486000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"alright well this position is way too big for something like that +my fault for spread trading a market with no descript",flip,decrease,False,True,1316.9129,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T19:45:42.815000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I wish you were right that Hamas could not operate at all due to screening. You think the IDF screens everyone who come,increase,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-29T20:32:20.387000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Hamas is doing none of those things he lists right now, and the only policing in the news lately was that Hamas tried to",hold,increase,False,True,655.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:46:14.803000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You replied in two places so I'll just respond in the one place. This is not a defense of Israel because I agree with ev,flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-10T09:46:34.833000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"yeah, I realised that after I shared, apologies!",flip,decrease,False,True,197.8782,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T21:54:02.028000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,That would be the craziest twist of the season!!,flip,hold,False,True,538.565,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-06-28T12:38:00.392000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Yeah, I meant us finding out could have happened.",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T02:44:02.772000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"I don't quite follow. +pro-Putin, pro-Ukraine, pro-Iran, pro-etc. I'm pretty sure the idea of a prediction market is to",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-12T11:32:48.064000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"yup. This specifically (energy) was a no almost immediately after October 7th, no?",hold,hold,True,True,210.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-07-02T04:13:44.372000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Ukraine would say that whether it was true or not.,increase,hold,False,True,1275.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:24:12.747000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Read the actual Haaretz link and learn how to use +archive.is + to get around paywalls. +https://archive.is/QrKY5 +“Ano",increase,increase,True,True,1400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:12:37.956000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Not in this specific instance, I don’t think so. Though what ‘nation state’ refers to here seems open to interpretation.",decrease,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-01T03:18:51.120000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Two dogs. Left is Myles a beagle mix and Iva Belle is a pit bull. They are almost always at my side, especially when I a",increase,hold,False,True,39060.5944,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T02:40:45.923000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"""I'm starting to think that you are just trying to manipulate people into betting YES."" +This really confuses me, if you",hold,decrease,False,True,6400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-01T00:46:49.755000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Accident due to trading while walking my dogs.,increase,decrease,False,True,39060.5944,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T18:04:30.341000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://twitter.com/2023gazawar/status/1790396949402665336 +Gaza war unit tracker +@2023gazawar +#Rafah + map update: (1",increase,increase,True,True,712.5507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-17T15:13:02.527000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"My reading is that it's either that or extremely precarious, but I think ersatz is weighing the behavior of the refugees",decrease,decrease,True,True,6650.2355,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:27:28.595000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I think it depends what caused the cancer. If it is roundup then Monsanto killed your. If it is your genetics then i don,flip,hold,False,True,1555.9877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T11:10:03.546000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"I think the post was ironic, or a semi-troll, or else posted sarcastically as a reference to BLM's recent use of that im",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T02:01:17.711000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"""Also some reporting that in this case US intelligence was heavily relying on Israeli intelligence."" White House spokesm",hold,increase,False,True,6400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T08:44:48.536000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I don't think so. It's text-to-speech, not an LLM, and he's not a nation state.",hold,hold,True,True,210.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T21:13:51.837000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"i mean i'm not flat yet haha, was hoping this would happen +i had a limit in, just added a few more at different levels",flip,increase,False,True,1076.5187,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T16:19:20.769000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"anything beyond speculation, really. That part of the report doesn't even get beyond that standard of evidence.",hold,hold,True,True,8748.7092,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T19:14:07.691000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Dude it’s in Russia. How much more information do you expect to get?,flip,increase,False,True,2555.9877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-29T22:31:03.232000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Presence of O(dozens) of North Korean officers confirmed in Mariupol, with training facilities under construction +http",increase,increase,True,True,3000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T18:49:16.270000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I mean there's not going to be a neon sign that says ""Hamas command center"". +The blast door and firing hole, independen",hold,increase,False,True,970.1102,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T13:27:46.960000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,can you be more specific? Would an image model with a GPT-style architecture be an LLM to you?,decrease,decrease,True,True,387.3065,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T22:27:04.612000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"with all due respect, the evidence looks overwhelming. It's just shy of them catching them in the act of using it.",decrease,increase,False,True,23383.507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T03:06:28.264000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"or + I got 1k at 60% if you wanna ante up!",decrease,increase,False,True,4000.2355,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T15:29:07.996000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Guys, we saw all that there is to see. If the IDF found traces of a command center, they would say so. They found a tunn",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:56:45.730000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"So like, the people in the IDF who kill for fun would somehow calibrate their rate of killing exactly to the point where",increase,increase,True,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-23T19:33:33.872000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"you can try to bibilitz it, if you're bibi enough 😂",hold,hold,True,True,104.4885,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T21:42:49.959000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"ChatGPT's statement is ambiguous about +when + the US funded the lab. And with it coming right after the sentence discu",hold,hold,True,True,1972.8835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:11:33.946000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,Killed does not equal murdered. You can be killed in a plane crash. Dying is when you are old and sick.,flip,hold,False,True,1555.9877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T04:23:46.013000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I didn’t say anything about historical claims to the levant. I said Israel illegitimately occupied Gaza (which belongs t,increase,increase,True,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T18:08:54.519000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Dude you still have the purple N in your picture. You couldn't even do that thing correctly,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T02:39:23.566000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I think the main issue is the phrase ""confirms that the standard model of gravity breaks down."" The observations themsel",flip,decrease,False,True,67.5574,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-12T23:05:04.008000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,Uncertainty is way down; both sides have had copious opportunities to launch a full-scale war and have declined to do so,decrease,increase,False,True,18629.4778,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T21:41:17.661000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,this seems like a weird way to talk about the resolution- the ISW map changing does not impact the actual reality on the,decrease,hold,False,True,9074.7599,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c431e9990890d752178a7b8d1a0c181aaad331bd --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,222 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-24T19:13:17.739000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,a high probability is not 100%,decrease,decrease,True,True,12.4708,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T18:09:22.646000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,The US intelligence apparatus is the best in the world but it feels like these are very weak reasons for a 90% confidenc,increase,decrease,False,True,1723.3072,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-11T15:59:17.012000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,IDF issued a warning for hundreds of towns and cities in northern Israel to lock in the bomb shelters until further noti,decrease,increase,False,True,442.0581,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:46:42.199000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I think if I get proof from some advertisement agency friends in my bubble working on political accounts for the next el,flip,increase,False,True,162.1002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-11T09:25:18.633000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"as an aside, Hamas and the Gazans know the people in the video. They know these people are not Hamas fighters. Maybe the",hold,hold,True,True,210.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:43:09.258000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Generating text on keywords and mobilizing bots doesn't require LLMs,increase,increase,True,True,1501.8046,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:29:20.499000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"@firstuserhere what is the definition of, ""generating"" ... does that mean, ""using an LLM to make an inference?"" So for e",decrease,decrease,True,True,2200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-06T20:47:05.268000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,This looks like minor skirmsih as opposed to war. Arab countries generally just lob rockets at Israel all the time. This,decrease,increase,False,True,18246.7833,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T04:47:51.305000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,how do you think this should resolve if it was some Hamas commander who got wounded and did some commanding from his hos,flip,decrease,False,True,7767.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-05T18:40:19.382000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"No, it would be bad to release a bunch of transcripts because that would tell Hamas something, or because it would give ",hold,decrease,False,True,2882.1102,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T18:40:02.415000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,All according to the Russian gov so far. My credence would increase if there was independent evidence,decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:00:32.226000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"obvs. but this article tells its regulated by china in some ways. right? +""But the Cyberspace Administration of China ru",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T18:21:19.604000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Already happening, by most credible reports. Just a matter of how much evidence you need to resolve YES. +https://www.b",increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-13T17:04:08.217000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"semi beat me to that by three seconds :( +also: +Hezbollah says calls for it not to intervene in war 'will have no effec",decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:47:12.838000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Questions for OP +: +do you believe the IPC reports that Gaza is currently in phase 4 food insecurity? +do you believ",flip,decrease,False,True,118.1571,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-22T16:23:44.687000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-22/us-push-for-release-of-hostages-delays-israeli-ground-war-but-won-t-s,flip,increase,False,True,270.0156,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T22:00:27.525000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Right. I was pointing out that the intent of the people making and filtering the available information doesn't align wit,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:29:35.197000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Any thoughts so far? The suspense is killing me,decrease,hold,False,True,13035.3503,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-24T00:44:29.478000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"This is probably the most politicized, combative, and unpleasant comment section I've seen on Manifold to date. Can we p",hold,hold,True,True,465.4857,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T13:45:10.657000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,basically following up on comments on this market I entered the youtube rabbit hole of settler VS Palestinian confrontat,flip,decrease,False,True,1.1838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-11T19:28:49.875000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Hezbollah is facing an issue, that being that there is a non-zero chance Israel will launch an operation aiming to creat",increase,increase,True,True,267.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T17:21:20.883000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"That makes sense, but I wouldn't say that's contrary. Real usage of AI is increasing, and purported usage is also increa",flip,hold,False,True,226.0876,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T08:15:31.174000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,So how are you feeling now that the initial surge of commentary has subsided?,flip,hold,False,True,21.2087,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T19:35:25.486000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Only if you solely consider the API costs. The real costs of adopting and integrating a new technology at a significantl,flip,hold,False,True,8748.7092,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T11:10:03.546000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"I think the post was ironic, or a semi-troll, or else posted sarcastically as a reference to BLM's recent use of that im",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:45:08.036000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it clearly and openly states ""The questions raised by the Committee for the Future of the Finnish Parliament are related",flip,decrease,False,True,162.1002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-06T22:52:51.900000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"There was no command center in any reasonably honest sense of the term. There was a tunnel with a kitchennete, a few doz",hold,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T00:03:33.640000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,I think if you just solely bet on definitive us intelligence statements you'd be doing pretty good,hold,increase,False,True,5755.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-03T18:09:03.650000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Both Yes and No people think different things. That's not a good recipe,decrease,decrease,True,True,38486.4505,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T19:15:37.859000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,The periodic waves on the graph are neat. They almost look like seasonal waves of an epidemic. Would be nice if a bot co,decrease,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-11T16:48:27.305000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,almost definitely a false alarm,increase,increase,True,True,1607.9631,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:51:11.617000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Come to think of it. Big Dentistry will generate propaganda through our toothbrushes before we know it.,decrease,hold,False,True,147.0863,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-07T14:44:31.899000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,and is there a picture that shows the suicide vest? I can't make anything out in that video.,increase,decrease,False,True,485.3301,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-08T19:35:26.663000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Side note, war has been declared, just on Hamas.",hold,decrease,False,True,105.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T03:33:44.983000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"seems like it depends whether israel are intent on it being just a siege or if they plan to move in, i think that's most",flip,decrease,False,True,1590.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T08:17:07.719000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Honestly doesn't seem that crazy,increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T01:38:19.352000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,So you are saying your question resolution criteria are duplicative and “wartime military action” only occurs after decl,hold,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T19:30:20.850000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,nobody said this footage shows a command center,increase,decrease,False,True,5155.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T18:36:37.688000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,do you really expect them to not retaliate as Israel goes door to door in Gaza?,increase,increase,True,True,900.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T20:10:13.658000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"""Read the bible"" ok that's a different israel than today entirely and it's crazy your bringing up events from 2k years a",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:31:55.690000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I'm basing it on NLP papers. I'd be happy to bet on something like the views of 10 random NeurIPS/ICML/ICLR authors (pub,flip,hold,False,True,226.0876,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T00:22:42.244000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I think the edit to the description clears up a lot of the comment wars, and we can chill until big articles drop from t",decrease,hold,False,True,1700.6767,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:56:28.021000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66727459 +maybe this was posted before (sry didnt look through 222 comments) +but I ",flip,decrease,False,True,90.3719,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-14T18:50:13.627000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"It isn't going to happen. If it was, it would have already, and Israel will be done in Gaza before December.",hold,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-10-03T16:27:59.969000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,OPs acc was deleted. Is there a way to auto resolve?,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T17:00:56.018000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"You can, in theory, use an LLM to brush your teeth in the morning. +😂 Nice! I love it.",decrease,hold,False,True,2200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-17T23:29:36.822000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Analyis from NYT: Evidence presented by Israel does ""not seem to settle the question of whether"" Hamas had a command cen",hold,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-18T00:27:09.980000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Yes but we should have priors with respect to which sources to trust, and more importantly, we should see Hamas has much",hold,increase,False,True,1500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T02:10:45.689000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"yep, but do you really think that will move Hanania's needle? He wants credible reporting. Not Israeli intelligence clai",flip,decrease,False,True,7792.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T05:02:30.238000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"So ""This market will settle as YES if credible reporting confirms the existence of a command center underneath the hospi",increase,decrease,False,True,1003.624,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T19:45:26.670000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-may-6-2024/ +Israel says Hamas ceasefire offer doesn’t meet key demands, Rafah op",increase,increase,True,True,80.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T01:51:00.258000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I mean, if this was going to resolve YES based on US government agencies' simply stating that they believe there was a c",flip,increase,False,True,6917.6235,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-23T00:50:12.687000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/humanitarian-aid-gaza-passed-un-security-council_n_65847994e4b0fe4ffe328635 +""On Thursday",decrease,decrease,True,True,12.6692,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T11:57:30.281000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"The images, which bear a striking resemblance to the early stages of Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza last year, show th",flip,flip,True,True,190.2625,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-06T18:00:05.574000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"""i was not convinced there was famine"" +Would the IPC--the leading experts in the world in aid--convince you? +https://",flip,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T09:59:43.627000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Is there anything new in this reporting? We already knew there were tunnels with what seemed to be an office in them and,increase,hold,False,True,9.3322,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:12:56.755000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"that seems to me a /very/ conservative analogy. +It seems much more like if when you searched Tiennamen Square, 1989/0",hold,increase,False,True,10000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T21:54:02.028000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,That would be the craziest twist of the season!!,hold,hold,True,True,538.565,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T16:55:03.141000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Yeah maybe Hamas removed the evidence but then this would still resolve NO. I doubt the IDF is waiting, the media is los",flip,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-29T16:31:18.457000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"But Mariupol is clearly outside of the territory that Russia controlled before Feb 2022, as it's outside DPR/LPR territo",decrease,hold,False,True,376.5177,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-15T23:46:36.957000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,It would generally surprise me if Iran opened up a full ground war against Israel and then nothing happened with its par,hold,decrease,False,True,2494.6332,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:23:02.656000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Where is the evidence? There are unsubstantiated rumours of a number ""far below 3000."" Your article's headline is a ques",increase,increase,True,True,120.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T16:37:32.695000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,So yeah I don't think it's much evidence.,hold,decrease,False,True,6400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-24T11:55:06.184000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"And here's AP also reporting it: +https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-poland-yoon-duda-north-korea-russia-troop-depl",flip,increase,False,True,851.3277,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:18:55.506000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Liquidity added! I plan to weigh in later in the month, but I agree with the consensus that the market maker will probab",hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:32:14.006000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I do think that a lot of the reason they don't let in journalists is because journalists would draw more attention to th,increase,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T13:35:07.653000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I don't think that's how DALL-E 3 works. Arguably it is what ChatGPT does when you activate DALL-E 3 in the current inte,flip,hold,False,True,387.3065,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-02T23:46:25.571000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"with all due respect, I know this is a contentious and sensitive topic but I don't think a lot of your language on this ",decrease,decrease,True,True,38486.4505,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-06T00:55:47.841000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Doing on ground operations öike in the past - intervention, occupation. +Öike as a typo of like? That seems likely to ar",decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T01:58:02.564000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,so you're betting YES because you think it really ought to resolve NO? 😂,flip,decrease,False,True,7667.6235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T14:57:06.294000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"Hernandez and company also must have made a similar mistake, because again it is replicated",decrease,increase,False,True,94.9303,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-28T22:29:13.557000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"12:30 p.m. EST, November 22, 2024 +North Korean military members reported to be in Mariupol and Kharkiv region + From CN",decrease,increase,False,True,563.6571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T19:48:28.385000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I mean of course Israel is going to value its own lives more than the lives of the Palestinians. Literally every countr,increase,increase,True,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T03:34:10.147000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Is that Israel's fault? Enough calories are getting in. +https://x.com/EFischberger/status/1951274473841172750",increase,decrease,False,True,3200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T17:59:42.491000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,How exactly did I do that? I don't even know you.,decrease,decrease,True,True,165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T20:34:18.168000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"forget isreals perspective, we are an outside party. As an outsider judging, do we assign equal value to these lives or ",increase,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T20:10:20.893000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,and Question 2? That's the puzzling one,flip,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T18:04:30.341000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://twitter.com/2023gazawar/status/1790396949402665336 +Gaza war unit tracker +@2023gazawar +#Rafah + map update: (1",decrease,increase,False,True,712.5507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T08:05:36.138000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Would disclosing the country be likely to make the probability shift away from 50/50?,flip,hold,False,True,844.5891,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-09-30T23:03:28.635000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"IDF has announced they crossed the border in force into Southern Lebanon. +https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1840887",decrease,increase,False,True,14101.2026,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:01:58.605000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"The military dictatorship in Egypt is unpopular, and one of its security challenges is to prevent Gazan forces and Egypt",increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T18:58:49.557000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,if an IDFsoldier stands there for 8 turns it should become captured and start spawning IDF instead,flip,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-22T01:10:15.945000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"This is No, WaPo today: +""the evidence presented by the Israeli government falls short of showing that Hamas had been us",hold,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:11:41.994000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Yeah, i thought so but wanted to argue without dismissing it anyway",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T01:12:50.064000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,We have an entity which spends billions of dollars attempting to forecast the world. Their forecasts naturally are fairl,hold,increase,False,True,7365.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-23T21:47:20.387000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"the federal AirTransport authority of Russia published a list of names +https://t.me/favt_ru/1278 +Propustin Sergey +Mak",flip,flip,True,True,2941.344,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-12T13:51:07.437000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I think it's happening but i doubt we'll get confirmation this year.,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-12T17:28:21.608000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Well, they understand that and apparently intend to make it way less dense before entering, and then some.",increase,increase,True,True,61.5422,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T03:35:37.508000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I strongly disagree, I think + is just using some biased sources. Hamas is still running Gaza. They control most of the",increase,increase,True,True,3274.2606,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T12:31:20.387000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"""In early 2023, Venezuelan state media outlets used social media to distribute videos produced by Synthesia that depicte",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-08-29T15:50:05.047000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"We will see, then. Hopefully they come back to either clarify the criteria or resolve it N/A due to ambiguity.",flip,decrease,False,True,67.5574,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-15T05:08:55.734000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Although there is full video footage of the entire tunnel under the hospital there is still debate that there was a comm,increase,decrease,False,True,1003.624,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-12T15:03:49.177000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,Hi Haws. I appreciate your response. I'm new here and just saw the title bet without reading the description! My fault.,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T01:48:42.213000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I think it makes sense to use the expectations set by Israel itself about what they expected to find under Shifa. +AP v",increase,increase,True,True,16918.6534,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-16T17:47:21.248000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I want to say that even if I end up losing a marginal call at the end of the month, I’m glad that one of these markets e",hold,hold,True,True,6400.2355,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-24T11:34:22.949000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,I seriously doubt there are any mercenaries with the IDF. There was this piece of misinformation about a Ukrainian-Israe,hold,hold,True,True,346.7331,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-17T23:38:33.318000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,It seems obvious to me that Hamas has moved the majority of its troops (and probably the hostages) to the south.,hold,hold,True,True,6400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-06-23T20:19:47.316000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,"50/50 odds seem reasonable. Maybe 60/40? +There is a chance he flees to a different country, there is a chance he's tak",decrease,decrease,True,True,225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:23:47.636000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"simply put, the israelis' own news sources confirm, hamas has offered all the hostages in exchange for peace, which the ",increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-12-29T05:49:04.543000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Not rooting for a war but the timing is interesting given this question ends in days. +https://nypost.com/2023/12/28/ne",hold,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T19:55:56.160000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I see. Does this mean the market thinks RH is biased? +What about the second one? How can Market B ""Market A will resol",flip,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T09:16:30.699000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"they tried diplomacy, and got war. Now they’re just trying to defeat the paramilitary dedicated to destroying them. +The",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-12-03T20:58:28.130000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Anymore? There hasn’t been moral high ground left in the area since it was part of the Ottoman Empire.,hold,hold,True,True,119.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-12-03T23:38:50.925000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Kim Jong-un 'furious with Vladimir Putin' over important factor in Ukraine war +Story by Rudi Kinsella & Jamie Shapiro +",decrease,increase,False,True,293.7748,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T17:25:41.912000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Seems very clear to me that if something very bad is happening to you, you might want to play it up, especially with how",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-15T23:42:16.086000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Saudi Arabia has a lot of capacity they could open up since they have been cutting production for months, so I don't thi",increase,hold,False,True,155.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T00:59:31.796000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"again to be clear, these two probabilities should sum up to be roughly equal, so the trade right now would be to buy YES",flip,hold,False,True,1590.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-25T20:45:56.417000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,You were earlier today. No idea why it was reversed.,increase,decrease,False,True,307.9621,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T03:39:15.206000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I think it's quite impressive how polite and reasonable people are here, considering the amount of emotion associated wi",flip,hold,False,True,7767.6235,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-28T17:58:52.633000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I see what you are saying on everything they claimed to have discovered, but what you are arguing doesn't completely add",increase,increase,True,True,722.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T14:37:48.820000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I mean that the time for this debate was 1.5 years ago.,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-16T07:15:27.645000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Israel is evacuating more than 10,000 citizens from towns near the Lebanon border (hebrew +https://www.ynet.co.il/news/",flip,increase,False,True,172.9171,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-12-10T14:47:03.810000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Still no evidence of this occurring, Metaculus prediction now at 9% (yes the resolution criteria are identical). You ca",hold,hold,True,True,7300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-04T17:42:46.131000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I suppose the way this is relevant is that I think + is less sympathetic to the Palestinian cause than I am but I also ",decrease,hold,False,True,40876.4505,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:14:44.140000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"First off, regardless of who the author was, this is being published on a Government website +right now +, we can all v",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-18T23:30:21.457000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,It's about time someone posts another article that will cause another spike. C'mon I want my cheap shares.,decrease,increase,False,True,4045.6313,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-02T11:42:31.622000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,I saw you flipped from NO to YES. How is this not more of the same low-level token support? Neither side would rationall,hold,hold,True,True,2400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-26T18:40:15.998000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I think a message that promotes and disseminates propaganda is propaganda. It certainly seems to fit the spirit of the q,decrease,hold,False,True,1765.6528,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:06:26.655000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"true, while ""the parliament"" is a place where elected representatives pass laws, make political decisions, and +oversee",flip,decrease,False,True,162.1002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-20T21:33:24.389000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,He is very very pro Israel. He is a race realist and generally sympathetic to extreme uses of force to solve problems. I,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-17T23:20:04.516000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,What is the source for this image?,hold,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T20:57:33.971000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"The NYT article is state stenography and contains 0 new information. Embarassing for them tbh +More interestingly, why d",hold,decrease,False,True,874.2716,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-18T22:13:34.475000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Sure I do. How else can I put pressure on the market creator to resolve correctly?,increase,hold,False,True,9168.6534,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:32:16.598000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,he is only going by the legal definition of famine as per the IPC. It's not a famine in this regard. just mass hunger. o,flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-13T18:07:36.136000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"I can also say that, since publishing, the aggregate probability on this is increasing due to these statements: +And +f",flip,increase,False,True,17.5064,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T04:41:21.239000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Is there a higher resolution image? I wanna poke around,flip,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-22T22:11:47.137000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,The only opinions that matter are the journalists working for the four news sources listed in the description. Please sp,hold,hold,True,True,22873.6534,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-06-28T12:38:00.392000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Yeah, I meant us finding out could have happened.",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-18T00:19:51.354000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,once again i don't have the capital to close the statistical arbitrage between this market and the other ones (which is ,flip,decrease,False,True,1590.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-03T04:12:49.172000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"I think this is easily >90% from the IC. +The United States is confident in an assessment from its own intelligence age",hold,increase,False,True,7365.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-01-05T19:28:40.040000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,It's referenced in the articles in the media...,hold,hold,True,True,2882.1102,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-17T16:10:08.240000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"LOL, we have been funding their military for 50 years dude.",increase,increase,True,True,155.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:28:57.382000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,it would give us a prior. There is survey data broken down by country about the opinions people have on Israel/Palestine,decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T19:01:16.131000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I take +generating + propaganda as one of the essential criteria for resolution. The question is how substantial to the",increase,hold,False,True,2254.0561,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T00:20:11.572000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Sorry, but I've been reading through this argument (I probably have better stuff to do) and you're making yourself look ",increase,decrease,False,True,2.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-19T20:19:48.987000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,especially worrying is the new cam footage showing arrival of abductees at the place. It's not like they are 100% totes ,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T00:35:59.482000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"Switching to YES, not because my internal belief changed much, but because I see that Israelis have made up their mind t",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UHIpirHjTBWWCD9NXPn7,2023-09-01T02:39:23.566000+00:00,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,"I think the main issue is the phrase ""confirms that the standard model of gravity breaks down."" The observations themsel",flip,decrease,False,True,67.5574,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-29T21:07:35.887000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"If they only fight on Russian territory in Kursk, does this count?",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-16T23:58:02.461000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,they have been striking each other for a while,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T23:31:34.168000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,That would be a vega strategy not a theta strategy.,hold,hold,True,True,14629.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T13:26:48.247000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"yes! for the lulz. We can just ignore that the rest of the world is denying that Israel has invaded rafah. +There's a ",flip,decrease,False,True,543.1429,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-21T02:12:26.448000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"The IDF says the Hamas command center is behind the door that just opened a few hours ago: +https://www.voanews.com/a/is",hold,increase,False,True,970.1102,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-15T03:11:06.203000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Biden administration is sending $1 billion more in weapons to Israel ( +Associated Press +) +https://www.timesofisrael.c",increase,increase,True,True,11500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T07:45:02.254000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Terrorists like Hamas like to hide behind innocent civilians in order to avoid retalationary strikes. Israel has duty to,hold,increase,False,True,157.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T21:08:08.924000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,yeah that's definitely not what I mean by propaganda.,decrease,hold,False,True,133.5354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-14T17:08:50.955000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"Yeah you're right, here you are: +The last two will require judgement calls (so I won't trade on those ones).",decrease,hold,False,True,151.7458,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T21:59:55.503000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"okay, I dont know very much about Israel's government. I dont know if extermination polls well in gaza but I never said ",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI,2023-08-26T19:55:17.567000+00:00,Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?,I agree it should stay open until confirmed with DNA since they have the bodies apparently. Russia is not very trustwort,flip,decrease,False,True,2531.5759,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T06:59:05.631000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Israeli military says it has captured Palestinian side of Rafah crossing +Israeli airstrikes kill 15 in Rafah, hospital ",increase,increase,True,True,604.6708,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-23T18:08:54.519000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,Dude you still have the purple N in your picture. You couldn't even do that thing correctly,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-21T16:14:54.104000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"BBC.COM + +South Korea has summoned the Russian ambassador, seeking the ""immediate withdrawal"" of North Korean troops w",increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-29T12:12:34.306000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Reuters reported on November 23 that a large number of the 11,000 North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast are still finishin",flip,decrease,False,True,730.2676,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:21:12.233000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"It says that China is planning to do this, not that they've done this. Look at this quote for example: +> We are closely",increase,decrease,False,True,3179.8095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2024-02-13T15:59:04.015000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,I don't think the NYT would confirm Israeli intelligence claims at face value in plain English. I think that they are a,hold,decrease,False,True,4335.1102,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:01:42.897000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Resolving this with the metaculus market is a pretty credible thing to do if folks refuse to admit an invasion has occur,flip,decrease,False,True,190.2625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-10-10T13:41:48.884000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"It's honestly a coin toss. Possibly higher. +Seen a few vids on Telegram that are saying this is the war to end Israel a",hold,decrease,False,True,105.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xpCT9MEzcBgYXIB8QO3B,2023-11-04T20:24:49.480000+00:00,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,"How much does it take to count as ""performs wartime military action""?",decrease,decrease,True,True,270.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T14:39:59.984000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"choose your own adventure. +Two-state solution: stop facilitating and reverse settlements in the West Bank. Release Pal",decrease,hold,False,True,80.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc,2023-11-28T15:53:58.260000+00:00,Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?,"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/world/middleeast/hamas-tunnel-al-shifa-hospital-gaza.html +https://www.wsj.com/world/",decrease,increase,False,True,36906.4505,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..02826269617432b451c4f98794a2e199011b4a9d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.8317962282285802,0.8958303812166564,0.06403415298807613,UP,0.9718844254760133,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,11,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.4712232684447028,0.46270636143336097,-0.008516907011341834,DOWN,0.2524027646764749,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.7419001832460732,0.6593390360228728,-0.0825611472232004,DOWN,0.8662252199831587,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will the wagner group still exist by the end of 2023?,18,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.4559122270850226,0.3408992435592073,-0.1150129835258153,DOWN,0.9212104697161134,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,12,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.8540727186992069,0.6650111312036064,-0.18906158749560042,DOWN,0.7844259924332191,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,10,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.7123813299657916,0.6950309413216982,-0.01735038864409344,DOWN,0.4287146073794431,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,15,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.6171036248152824,0.6960955079210507,0.07899188310576832,UP,0.7707534165244407,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will the wagner group still exist by the end of 2023?,18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.4759408653169086,0.5209731710809323,0.04503230576402373,UP,0.05516912994514487,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,39,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.7825938122709575,0.730783662543765,-0.051810149727192445,DOWN,0.8778738198412909,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,10,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.4447199440319708,0.6171036248152824,0.17238368078331157,UP,0.7140931561879578,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will the wagner group still exist by the end of 2023?,18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.2975787359830917,0.25466821678454016,-0.042910519198551544,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.6650111312036064,0.6816940860134193,0.016682954809812856,UP,0.752951331624086,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,10,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.5985955505558822,0.7988149024145813,0.2002193518586991,UP,0.8472408430866822,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,39,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.5528368315313607,0.7123813299657916,0.15954449843443097,UP,0.42810817966346165,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,15,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.776887812637967,0.7948086634272276,0.017920850789260534,UP,0.6598182929584593,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,16,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.8185898664740978,0.7314933056993927,-0.08709656077470507,DOWN,0.8001936039367631,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will the wagner group still exist by the end of 2023?,18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.6844154364927839,0.8317962282285802,0.14738079173579632,UP,0.9474968422295363,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will the observations of “gravity breaking down” replicate before the end of the year?,10,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.33304743938523684,0.4432117170396464,0.11016427765440956,UP,0.8333862707340953,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,10,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.3408992435592073,0.5177463715958477,0.17684712803664038,UP,0.1180906157872053,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,12,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.6767610289883081,0.6566180188923367,-0.020143010095971414,DOWN,0.26881720430107525,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,16,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9a3f3a8260d8520be31fac8a215b2c1c7e8e243f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.12603890155969663,0.11776324591812083,-0.0082756556415758,DOWN,0.825802104014438,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.2800000000000002,0.3671144784687215,0.08711447846872128,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,2,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.6597731792069838,0.8165667899492524,0.1567936107422686,UP,0.032639439833023046,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,13,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.5832242586941083,0.8031082953630673,0.21988403666895895,UP,0.801984475024023,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,59,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.5564583489443788,0.7003391205745392,0.14388077163016033,UP,0.5441161751602007,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,9,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.676021057390489,0.729480658125124,0.05345960073463496,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.5367405638629156,0.7057291972713213,0.16898863340840575,UP,0.7909899599098971,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will the wagner group still exist by the end of 2023?,25,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.826106337473048,0.7006094122194589,-0.12549692525358902,DOWN,0.7318830552006979,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,24,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.7025207234011291,0.5614495889757644,-0.14107113442536479,DOWN,0.8680769865014488,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,9,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.6716836094190165,0.2593807492220507,-0.4123028601969658,DOWN,0.2706364275236828,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,14,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.429045046626302,0.5365279229558141,0.10748287632951209,UP,0.7062095760038203,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will the wagner group still exist by the end of 2023?,7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.5893789263875359,0.6292542886861443,0.03987536229860844,UP,0.3645668894153679,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,5,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.6603176365448161,0.7602675843548692,0.09994994781005306,UP,0.8874999355639732,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will the wagner group still exist by the end of 2023?,15,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.3870638373457271,0.3306926468561819,-0.0563711904895452,DOWN,0.7376385508008416,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,37,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.12925538819336618,0.050977078996127835,-0.07827830919723835,DOWN,0.08718595683445839,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023?,7,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.7612134617883695,0.6695398657666848,-0.09167359602168468,DOWN,0.9271487760325754,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,29,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.5659378650810614,0.2068531777078155,-0.35908468737324584,DOWN,0.345579781276841,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,25,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.09846774797266375,0.10443162109514914,0.005963873122485391,UP,0.42041480567931216,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,4,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.28733284015686555,0.21276586960661983,-0.07456697055024572,DOWN,0.2837511621205628,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,19,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.6859711772439995,0.6993059481157008,0.013334770871701318,UP,0.9998701087924449,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..da5099658961da02ee0540e7cb2245c120ace3c9 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,100 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-31T04:54:00.808000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Hell that's a very big arbitrage op there. Risk of them flying by the night is to high though for my taste. Who are thes,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T17:34:17.520000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"If anyone is interested, i will put up to $5000 of real money on the result of this question with me getting No at curre",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:21:30.823000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Polymarket is not technically legal in the US. The site is ""read-only"" for US users (unless they use a VPN outside the U",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T05:58:07.481000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Yes I went all in on this. I have my nuts. +I don’t think you do or believe what you claim to, otherwise you‘d take my m",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-19T20:53:08.344000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Interesting question! We're still in beta here, let me test moving the date and see what happens. I think it's fine for ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T04:40:22.141000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Apparently hush money isn't illegal, but if they can prove fraud and/or campaign finance violations, those are illegal: ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T21:18:55.508000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","resolution criteria: +Outcome verified from +FRED +. +What matters is the +FRED + chart. If you want to adjust your b",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T05:58:45.661000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Market creators have wide leeway to run their comment sections as they would like when it comes to hiding low quality co,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-19T20:43:35.948000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Wait + will the sweepstakes version stay open during the election? I'm gonna close the mana version early, not sure if ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:44:45.430000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","yeah i finder it harder to say in general, a lot of these kalshi markets have like 5c spreads with $10 on each side. one",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:46:14.499000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I worked at two different companies before and during that spike in ocean freight and saw the same thing at both. Normal,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T15:57:09.375000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-05T03:37:21.404000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Nah. Nothing on the horizon that has much buzz. I only bought $5 because I don't see this market going below 30% for man,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-02T22:56:36.717000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It seems +The Keys to the White House + is predicting a Biden win. Six or more false keys are needed for Biden to lose,",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T04:29:14.545000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,wait if you’re holding YES shares you need the typist to show up to work,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-27T00:13:29.425000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"John, I put up a market on Hunter getting probation.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:29:33.022000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,in fact I am gambling real usd dollars on this :),False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T08:11:26.313000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Your logic would work if we were talking about options trading where your outcome is based on market sentiment, not obj",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T17:54:35.166000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm not going to bet any real money, but I'm curious what odds you would take the other side? You'd bet $5000 NO at 51%;",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T09:05:01.606000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I believe there are also fees to the liquidity providers that vary per market.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T02:15:51.132000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Is there a transparency / freedom of information law for mugshots in the state of georgia,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T23:58:01.081000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/trump-federal-workers-quit-severance +: +“The White House expects 5% to 10% of federal ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:32:24.633000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The spread on Manifold for a M1000 (=$10) order is bigger than for a $1000 order on Polymarket,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-27T15:13:57.018000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"not really, the NC market has Harris’ chances at 45%. Right now, this market is at 51%; of that, 45% comes from Harris f",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:14:30.643000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","@BTE + A nice juicy M$10,000 limit order for you if you want it. He whines in every election and every rally, and it doe",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T06:27:07.791000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I was 20 when I first learned that some people thought the word retard was offensive. I couldn't really believe it tbh. ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T19:28:17.977000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It was fixed in the sense that everyone knows Trump actually won. It was blindingly obvious like 'is there a sun in the,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-12-31T18:33:39.078000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Hi all! Here's a somewhat related related market I made: +https://manifold.markets/jb456/morning-in-trumps-america-whic",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T22:53:12.543000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Whooo very glad I sold at 7%. >2300 profit betting no. +New question... Will these numbers end up being revised? I don't",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T06:55:07.975000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I am expecting the cuts to be over 1 million. They want to cut $1-2 trillion per year from federal spending. Use the Su,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T08:44:41.727000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"not disputing that there are significant correlations between states, but they do change a bit between elections.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:23:49.138000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm realizing that every comment I add makes the description longer and more confusing and I apologize for that, it wasn",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T01:56:54.602000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,you do realize it is Jan 30 today and the market resolves tomorrow night?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:40:32.179000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"That's why I bought YES at 10% a year ago, lol.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:39:48.212000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm aware, when I created my market Polymarket hadn't done theirs and if I had to do it again I'd use their resolution c",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-11T18:23:05.739000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Lots of mana to be made betting NO if you're confident in that.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:53:48.317000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"How would any TikTok ban affect the availability of WeChat in the US? +https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-wechat-be-av",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T19:25:11.379000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I’m too risk-averse, but I’ll do a $5 bet at 1:1 odds if you’d like 😆",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:31:13.176000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It isn't just the cost of containers and fuel - it's also logistical delays and bottlenecks that also contribute to infl,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:45:39.786000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Also, for anything subjective, people should not accumulate positions. It looks like + has around half his portfolio va",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-13T15:58:07.383000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","lol oops you're 100% right of course, edited the above to fix",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-28T07:56:12.099000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Cheap mana arb: +Buy 10000M for $100. Place it on NO at 2 here. +Go to the bookies and bet $60 YES at 3.3 +Cost: $160 +I",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-17T21:49:59.005000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Latest news is +White House national security adviser John Kirby said Sunday that the Senate should swiftly advance a b",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-14T02:03:21.064000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I see well I don't care much if this resolves yes or no. I'm just here to trade and so far I have made some small profit,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-21T17:57:23.885000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,What are the criteria for how this will be resolved? Who decides who wins?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T19:47:47.719000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I guess you're right. So they really are far apart. You can buy over 200k on Polymarket for 53 cents and under 250k on K,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-11T18:25:12.411000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,yup I have made a few solid trades so far. I wrongly predicted the weekend though. But I'm only down 1 mana so I'm just ,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:48:32.423000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"NBC is also reporting the same photo as CNN: +https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-arraignment",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-27T00:08:24.892000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,In part it was just a bunch of silly arguments. You can say Biden wins without suggesting that a faked up indictment fo,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-01T11:42:28.447000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I was broke when I bought in knowing nothing ever happens, now the market has caught up to my insight so I only make 50 ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:35:03.332000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,ahhhh gotcha that's my misunderstanding. I'm still skeptical that polymarket has no fees. I find it hard to believe that,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-24T23:45:52.813000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"""Another complication for Democrats is that Republicans passed a one-time infusion of $170 billion for immigration enfor",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T17:01:39.938000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","That's not quite right, though. Neither this market nor the Kalshi one is going to wait until Jan 2026 data is available",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T17:11:56.781000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""Dude is literally on tape committing a crime that basically fits the letter of the law in Fulton County."" +Do you have ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-08-27T02:36:40.938000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"This is essentially ""will Harris win NC"" right? Is there another state she might flip without also flipping NC?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:24:33.558000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","? buy no here for 51c, buy yes on kalshi for 40c = $0.91 spent for a guaranteed dollar or 1/0.91 -1 =9.9% return",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-13T05:18:49.511000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"As long as we're citing economists, Moody's is predicting Biden wins 308-230- as long as average gas price doesn't get n",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-27T05:08:19.842000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Lutnick - USPS workers will also replace 20,000 Social Security workers. ""We spend $40 billion every 10 years doing the ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-24T22:04:11.309000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,is that a Chatgpt generated response?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-20T17:57:27.074000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Hmm, kind of messed up my limits when I entered them yesterday. Oh well, rather than profit maximizing, I guess for thi",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:12:27.754000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"re: the name change, isn't this still predicated on it getting signed by the president?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-17T20:06:00.888000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I was thinking the chance of nominee change comes from Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope, currently on 1.8% to win the elect",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T01:08:08.596000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I don't argue with flat earthers either. And they get more respect from me than the 'it was the fairest election evar' ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T01:36:22.101000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Using Polymarket to resolve a market about Trump and expecting it to be credible... lol,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:43:08.791000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,yes I agree with this. Most people may not even realize ownership has switched.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-04T15:12:14.806000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"And I have one for total flips, either direction:",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T00:18:31.083000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I bought NO because of your clear definition in the description. +""a political party is defined an organization that coo",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T22:29:31.964000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,The liquidity in this market is awesome. Selling M$1000 without moving the probability is more fun than a limit order ex,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T22:24:07.434000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Polymarket subsidizing liquidity providers with $5000 a week in a zero fee market,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T02:14:56.824000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"yeah this is a tough one to operationalise. Echoing Levi, I bought heaps of no since this market was trading about the s",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:29:08.222000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I went to bed last night feeling pretty good about my YES position despite the schumer/scotus thing, but it seems more 5",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-05T17:59:46.398000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"The flip side is that it looks really +good + if Biden nominates Buttigieg or Whitmer to replace him",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a96c5cb68bcde8ce4a022e1b032df95874b66c17 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,100 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T04:40:22.141000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Apparently hush money isn't illegal, but if they can prove fraud and/or campaign finance violations, those are illegal: ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-19T20:53:08.344000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Interesting question! We're still in beta here, let me test moving the date and see what happens. I think it's fine for ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-31T04:54:00.808000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Hell that's a very big arbitrage op there. Risk of them flying by the night is to high though for my taste. Who are thes,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:21:30.823000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Polymarket is not technically legal in the US. The site is ""read-only"" for US users (unless they use a VPN outside the U",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T05:58:45.661000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Market creators have wide leeway to run their comment sections as they would like when it comes to hiding low quality co,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T21:18:55.508000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","resolution criteria: +Outcome verified from +FRED +. +What matters is the +FRED + chart. If you want to adjust your b",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T17:34:17.520000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"If anyone is interested, i will put up to $5000 of real money on the result of this question with me getting No at curre",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T05:58:07.481000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Yes I went all in on this. I have my nuts. +I don’t think you do or believe what you claim to, otherwise you‘d take my m",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:46:14.499000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I worked at two different companies before and during that spike in ocean freight and saw the same thing at both. Normal,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T15:57:09.375000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-19T20:43:35.948000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Wait + will the sweepstakes version stay open during the election? I'm gonna close the mana version early, not sure if ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:44:45.430000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","yeah i finder it harder to say in general, a lot of these kalshi markets have like 5c spreads with $10 on each side. one",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T17:54:35.166000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm not going to bet any real money, but I'm curious what odds you would take the other side? You'd bet $5000 NO at 51%;",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-02T22:56:36.717000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It seems +The Keys to the White House + is predicting a Biden win. Six or more false keys are needed for Biden to lose,",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-05T03:37:21.404000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Nah. Nothing on the horizon that has much buzz. I only bought $5 because I don't see this market going below 30% for man,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T04:29:14.545000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,wait if you’re holding YES shares you need the typist to show up to work,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-27T00:13:29.425000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"John, I put up a market on Hunter getting probation.",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T08:11:26.313000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Your logic would work if we were talking about options trading where your outcome is based on market sentiment, not obj",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T23:58:01.081000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/trump-federal-workers-quit-severance +: +“The White House expects 5% to 10% of federal ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:29:33.022000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,in fact I am gambling real usd dollars on this :),False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T09:05:01.606000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I believe there are also fees to the liquidity providers that vary per market.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:32:24.633000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The spread on Manifold for a M1000 (=$10) order is bigger than for a $1000 order on Polymarket,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T06:27:07.791000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I was 20 when I first learned that some people thought the word retard was offensive. I couldn't really believe it tbh. ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T02:15:51.132000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Is there a transparency / freedom of information law for mugshots in the state of georgia,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T19:28:17.977000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It was fixed in the sense that everyone knows Trump actually won. It was blindingly obvious like 'is there a sun in the,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:14:30.643000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","@BTE + A nice juicy M$10,000 limit order for you if you want it. He whines in every election and every rally, and it doe",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-27T15:13:57.018000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"not really, the NC market has Harris’ chances at 45%. Right now, this market is at 51%; of that, 45% comes from Harris f",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-12-31T18:33:39.078000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Hi all! Here's a somewhat related related market I made: +https://manifold.markets/jb456/morning-in-trumps-america-whic",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T06:55:07.975000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I am expecting the cuts to be over 1 million. They want to cut $1-2 trillion per year from federal spending. Use the Su,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:23:49.138000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm realizing that every comment I add makes the description longer and more confusing and I apologize for that, it wasn",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T01:56:54.602000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,you do realize it is Jan 30 today and the market resolves tomorrow night?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:40:32.179000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"That's why I bought YES at 10% a year ago, lol.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T08:44:41.727000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"not disputing that there are significant correlations between states, but they do change a bit between elections.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T22:53:12.543000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Whooo very glad I sold at 7%. >2300 profit betting no. +New question... Will these numbers end up being revised? I don't",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:39:48.212000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm aware, when I created my market Polymarket hadn't done theirs and if I had to do it again I'd use their resolution c",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:31:13.176000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It isn't just the cost of containers and fuel - it's also logistical delays and bottlenecks that also contribute to infl,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-11T18:23:05.739000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Lots of mana to be made betting NO if you're confident in that.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:45:39.786000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Also, for anything subjective, people should not accumulate positions. It looks like + has around half his portfolio va",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-28T07:56:12.099000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Cheap mana arb: +Buy 10000M for $100. Place it on NO at 2 here. +Go to the bookies and bet $60 YES at 3.3 +Cost: $160 +I",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:53:48.317000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"How would any TikTok ban affect the availability of WeChat in the US? +https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-wechat-be-av",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T19:25:11.379000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I’m too risk-averse, but I’ll do a $5 bet at 1:1 odds if you’d like 😆",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-13T15:58:07.383000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","lol oops you're 100% right of course, edited the above to fix",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-17T21:49:59.005000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Latest news is +White House national security adviser John Kirby said Sunday that the Senate should swiftly advance a b",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-21T17:57:23.885000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,What are the criteria for how this will be resolved? Who decides who wins?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-14T02:03:21.064000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I see well I don't care much if this resolves yes or no. I'm just here to trade and so far I have made some small profit,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:48:32.423000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"NBC is also reporting the same photo as CNN: +https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-arraignment",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-11T18:25:12.411000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,yup I have made a few solid trades so far. I wrongly predicted the weekend though. But I'm only down 1 mana so I'm just ,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:35:03.332000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,ahhhh gotcha that's my misunderstanding. I'm still skeptical that polymarket has no fees. I find it hard to believe that,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T19:47:47.719000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I guess you're right. So they really are far apart. You can buy over 200k on Polymarket for 53 cents and under 250k on K,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-27T00:08:24.892000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,In part it was just a bunch of silly arguments. You can say Biden wins without suggesting that a faked up indictment fo,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-01T11:42:28.447000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I was broke when I bought in knowing nothing ever happens, now the market has caught up to my insight so I only make 50 ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T17:11:56.781000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""Dude is literally on tape committing a crime that basically fits the letter of the law in Fulton County."" +Do you have ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-24T23:45:52.813000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"""Another complication for Democrats is that Republicans passed a one-time infusion of $170 billion for immigration enfor",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-08-27T02:36:40.938000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"This is essentially ""will Harris win NC"" right? Is there another state she might flip without also flipping NC?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T17:01:39.938000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","That's not quite right, though. Neither this market nor the Kalshi one is going to wait until Jan 2026 data is available",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-13T05:18:49.511000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"As long as we're citing economists, Moody's is predicting Biden wins 308-230- as long as average gas price doesn't get n",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:24:33.558000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","? buy no here for 51c, buy yes on kalshi for 40c = $0.91 spent for a guaranteed dollar or 1/0.91 -1 =9.9% return",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-04T15:12:14.806000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"And I have one for total flips, either direction:",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-24T22:04:11.309000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,is that a Chatgpt generated response?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-17T20:06:00.888000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I was thinking the chance of nominee change comes from Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope, currently on 1.8% to win the elect",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-27T05:08:19.842000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Lutnick - USPS workers will also replace 20,000 Social Security workers. ""We spend $40 billion every 10 years doing the ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T01:08:08.596000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I don't argue with flat earthers either. And they get more respect from me than the 'it was the fairest election evar' ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:12:27.754000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"re: the name change, isn't this still predicated on it getting signed by the president?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-20T17:57:27.074000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Hmm, kind of messed up my limits when I entered them yesterday. Oh well, rather than profit maximizing, I guess for thi",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:43:08.791000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,yes I agree with this. Most people may not even realize ownership has switched.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T00:18:31.083000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I bought NO because of your clear definition in the description. +""a political party is defined an organization that coo",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T22:29:31.964000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,The liquidity in this market is awesome. Selling M$1000 without moving the probability is more fun than a limit order ex,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:29:08.222000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I went to bed last night feeling pretty good about my YES position despite the schumer/scotus thing, but it seems more 5",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T02:14:56.824000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"yeah this is a tough one to operationalise. Echoing Levi, I bought heaps of no since this market was trading about the s",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T01:36:22.101000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Using Polymarket to resolve a market about Trump and expecting it to be credible... lol,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T22:24:07.434000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Polymarket subsidizing liquidity providers with $5000 a week in a zero fee market,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-05T17:59:46.398000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"The flip side is that it looks really +good + if Biden nominates Buttigieg or Whitmer to replace him",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2cf6c02ab204d7f60f85a676fe7e2f27362e2c37 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,241 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +gofilbtkg1,2024-08-27T15:56:30.077000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I also have a version for Trump, different format since it's easier for him to flip states (because Biden won most swing",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T18:43:15.091000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",that would be investing to know — are they only reporting net winnings? Would be a persuasive bit of evidence!,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T01:41:15.407000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Polymarket currently has a 11% (absolute - eg. 48%-49% vs 37%-38%) bias over PredictIt which is arguably already biased ,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:23:46.011000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"then what do you mean here: +https://manifold.markets/Slazac/will-elon-musk-create-a-political-p#p662ctg0vaj +? +And wh",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-09-11T02:14:57.429000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,i dont think this comment actually means anything,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-17T21:49:59.005000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Latest news is +White House national security adviser John Kirby said Sunday that the Senate should swiftly advance a b",NO,NO,True,True,3419.222,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2024-03-06T23:13:31.611000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"""NO if none of the prime minister and cabinet are Liberals."" +So if the conservatives form a minority government and let",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T06:27:07.791000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I was 20 when I first learned that some people thought the word retard was offensive. I couldn't really believe it tbh. ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T06:02:56.601000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"Looks like Elon just filed with the FEC. +https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00910323/1898441/",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-08T16:40:31.607000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"made a longer term multiple choice version without needing to define “political party”: +https://manifold.markets/Jason",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T02:14:56.824000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"yeah this is a tough one to operationalise. Echoing Levi, I bought heaps of no since this market was trading about the s",NO,NO,True,True,17132.974,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:25:22.867000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,DSA self identifies as an organization and is broadly considered one,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-10-26T05:19:22.550000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",God I wish I had known about this fucking market earlier. This was a steal at 70%,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-26T23:53:33.395000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"1. Doubt that anyone who is not committed cares. He paid off a prostitute, possibly. In a way that is probably not a f",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-04T15:12:14.806000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"And I have one for total flips, either direction:",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T17:54:35.166000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm not going to bet any real money, but I'm curious what odds you would take the other side? You'd bet $5000 NO at 51%;",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1354.4601,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T14:52:11.857000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"No, I want there to be a distinction between a party and an organization",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T05:58:45.661000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Market creators have wide leeway to run their comment sections as they would like when it comes to hiding low quality co,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,11538.9979,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T13:36:42.179000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,This market is more volatile than tumbles debt,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:31:13.176000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It isn't just the cost of containers and fuel - it's also logistical delays and bottlenecks that also contribute to infl,NO,NO,True,True,0.4824,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-10T03:38:25.123000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,How does this resolve if the bill is signed into law and then blocked by a court challenge?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T05:21:50.297000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"""Harris wins at least one state Trump won in 2020""",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T21:06:28.724000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","What if the employees are on furlough or some kind of ""you're fired"", but we'll still keep you on the rolls for 2 years?",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:46:33.257000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"If the Democrats go ahead with the bill splitting plan before 30 Jan, the shutdown is unavoidable, because it has to be ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T19:28:17.977000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It was fixed in the sense that everyone knows Trump actually won. It was blindingly obvious like 'is there a sun in the,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T22:53:12.543000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Whooo very glad I sold at 7%. >2300 profit betting no. +New question... Will these numbers end up being revised? I don't",YES,NO,False,True,17.1875,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-15T04:05:52.966000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"For tips on how to guerilla market in the AI age, please forward inquiries to: +hello@uppercutmarketing.com +Yes, I am r",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T14:43:19.859000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,This market is so profitable if you've been in it long enough lol,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:46:14.499000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I worked at two different companies before and during that spike in ocean freight and saw the same thing at both. Normal,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,610.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-28T01:22:55.835000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden outperformed among suburban white women, an important swing demographic. Especially educated white women. He also ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-15T14:07:23.947000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","it would be nice to see a chart that also counted contractors, though that would probably be hard to do, since the move ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2022-09-11T14:49:26.128000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Liberal Party ALONE or with supply agreements from other parties?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-12-31T18:33:39.078000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Hi all! Here's a somewhat related related market I made: +https://manifold.markets/jb456/morning-in-trumps-america-whic",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-12T17:48:52.156000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Seeing this market at 37% is crazy,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-02T22:56:36.717000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It seems +The Keys to the White House + is predicting a Biden win. Six or more false keys are needed for Biden to lose,",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:12:27.754000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"re: the name change, isn't this still predicated on it getting signed by the president?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-08T22:28:10.205000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Problem is, the fix is in. The votes of the American people do not matter, except for how hard they make it to run the ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-01T11:42:28.447000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I was broke when I bought in knowing nothing ever happens, now the market has caught up to my insight so I only make 50 ",NO,NO,True,True,50.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T18:58:33.283000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Because it looks like he'll surrender rather than be arrested.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T14:53:31.341000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,No agreement has been yet been reached on a split.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-18T10:53:59.582000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"READ, SMURFS! +Trump's mounting legal woes aren't slowing him down as he's surged past Joe Biden in the latest 2024 US E",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:44:45.430000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","yeah i finder it harder to say in general, a lot of these kalshi markets have like 5c spreads with $10 on each side. one",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,3766.8119,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T06:55:07.975000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I am expecting the cuts to be over 1 million. They want to cut $1-2 trillion per year from federal spending. Use the Su,YES,YES,True,True,4450.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-27T00:08:24.892000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,In part it was just a bunch of silly arguments. You can say Biden wins without suggesting that a faked up indictment fo,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-05T17:59:46.398000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"The flip side is that it looks really +good + if Biden nominates Buttigieg or Whitmer to replace him",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-27T00:13:29.425000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"John, I put up a market on Hunter getting probation.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T16:44:35.517000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"would the opm page update in time if it's a quick ""technically shut down"" situation? Seems like it's the source of truth",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-12T23:29:43.684000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. +Please read",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-14T02:03:21.064000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I see well I don't care much if this resolves yes or no. I'm just here to trade and so far I have made some small profit,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:53:48.317000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"How would any TikTok ban affect the availability of WeChat in the US? +https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-wechat-be-av",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-27T15:13:57.018000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"not really, the NC market has Harris’ chances at 45%. Right now, this market is at 51%; of that, 45% comes from Harris f",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-21T05:31:13.206000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","massive jump in the last 48h, wow",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T19:02:12.174000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",really knocked it out of the park. He was right and yet lost 146k. 👍🏼,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-02T14:04:56.998000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I am not sure of any of this, I am not a tax attorney nor a CPA, people should get their own advice. That said, my impr",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T22:29:31.964000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,The liquidity in this market is awesome. Selling M$1000 without moving the probability is more fun than a limit order ex,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2965.0487,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-04T17:52:21.266000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I’ve now seen video evidence as well as multiple written sources confirming that Donald Trump has been arrested and is p,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:23:49.138000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm realizing that every comment I add makes the description longer and more confusing and I apologize for that, it wasn",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T17:01:39.938000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","That's not quite right, though. Neither this market nor the Kalshi one is going to wait until Jan 2026 data is available",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T01:36:22.101000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Using Polymarket to resolve a market about Trump and expecting it to be credible... lol,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-29T05:13:42.013000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I didn’t say that was one of the things Biden defaulted to the Trump doctrine on,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-11-20T17:54:49.850000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","At long last, September job numbers are released. Federal employment at 2,918k. January was 3,015, so the total decline ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T04:29:14.545000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,wait if you’re holding YES shares you need the typist to show up to work,NO,YES,False,True,15192.8758,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-26T16:42:45.410000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I made a follow-up to my earlier market:,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-01T17:20:12.175000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Idk people really love that orange n*gga I'm not so sure about it,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-12T06:29:04.577000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/implementing-the-presidents-department-of-government-efficiency-,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-21T17:57:23.885000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,What are the criteria for how this will be resolved? Who decides who wins?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-30T15:14:29.062000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I think the models always had this too high. There’s only around 2% chance of a flip without NC, but the models give thi",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-28T07:56:12.099000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Cheap mana arb: +Buy 10000M for $100. Place it on NO at 2 here. +Go to the bookies and bet $60 YES at 3.3 +Cost: $160 +I",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,6720.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T00:06:10.981000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T10:45:16.820000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"what you said is completely off topic of what + said. The point was about the original commentor insulting other market",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T01:09:12.371000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"So far the only thing we have is a tweet that announces its creation, I don't think the party exists yet",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-27T05:08:19.842000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Lutnick - USPS workers will also replace 20,000 Social Security workers. ""We spend $40 billion every 10 years doing the ",YES,YES,True,True,8751.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T04:38:47.162000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Stock buybacks were banned entirely until 1982. The economy was fine pre-1982. I think the American economy can handle a,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-05T23:54:25.197000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Man, I did not expect such a low quality comment section (interspersed useful info and analysis notwithstanding) on a Ma",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-13T05:18:49.511000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"As long as we're citing economists, Moody's is predicting Biden wins 308-230- as long as average gas price doesn't get n",YES,YES,True,True,767.8494,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:29:08.222000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I went to bed last night feeling pretty good about my YES position despite the schumer/scotus thing, but it seems more 5",NO,NO,True,True,262.1731,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T05:07:43.591000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","producing noise is literally his business (nextbigfuture.com, the best part is what you will read under ""About""). I've ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:14:30.643000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","@BTE + A nice juicy M$10,000 limit order for you if you want it. He whines in every election and every rally, and it doe",YES,YES,True,True,14.2484,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:24:33.558000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","? buy no here for 51c, buy yes on kalshi for 40c = $0.91 spent for a guaranteed dollar or 1/0.91 -1 =9.9% return",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,3766.8119,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T18:05:58.513000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Interesting! Thanks for that. +Not sure 4th amendment jurisprudence captures the way the words are normally used, but t",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-26T01:54:58.081000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,Trump's approval rating took two big dips. The largest one was because of the Liberation Day Tariffs and the second-larg,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-28T12:21:13.239000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"But don't you know, the illegal immigrants stuffed Trump ballots up a bunch of mules' butts to smuggle them into Venezue",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T02:11:29.404000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,And also your point is not quite true. It's possible (though unlikely) that Harris flips a state but loses the election.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T19:47:47.719000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I guess you're right. So they really are far apart. You can buy over 200k on Polymarket for 53 cents and under 250k on K,YES,NO,False,True,9450.2482,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-09T06:19:27.587000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The Republican president hasn’t won a popular vote since 2004. The senate and electoral college and state legislatures c,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-15T01:23:12.238000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",hm this is pretty interesting. Thanks for putting together. Wonder where those mostly came from (as in which departments,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:21:30.823000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Polymarket is not technically legal in the US. The site is ""read-only"" for US users (unless they use a VPN outside the U",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1965.4652,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-17T18:58:01.966000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,I just want to say that I appreciate how elegant the resolution criteria is here. That is all. ❤️,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-07T09:29:48.688000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,The two party system has been in the US for 200 years. Starting a party would require a lot of spending to get voters wi,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-11T18:25:12.411000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,yup I have made a few solid trades so far. I wrongly predicted the weekend though. But I'm only down 1 mana so I'm just ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T17:27:16.673000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I understand this, and have filed with gambling income and losses itemized every year since at least 2006. I do not bel",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-11T18:23:05.739000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Lots of mana to be made betting NO if you're confident in that.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T02:15:51.132000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Is there a transparency / freedom of information law for mugshots in the state of georgia,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-07T21:19:40.974000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"We've got a news dashboard up for this! +https://manifold.markets/news/tiktok-ban +The white house is backing it, so th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-24T23:45:52.813000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"""Another complication for Democrats is that Republicans passed a one-time infusion of $170 billion for immigration enfor",NO,NO,True,True,108.2427,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:39:48.212000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm aware, when I created my market Polymarket hadn't done theirs and if I had to do it again I'd use their resolution c",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-14T04:15:44.821000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","so my unofficial quick reaction is that the description says ""Linked to this Kalshi question"", so my default resolution ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:02:33.220000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"It's funny that you mention ""substantive arguments"" and conjecture because it's precisely your conjecture and +lack + o",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T00:18:31.083000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I bought NO because of your clear definition in the description. +""a political party is defined an organization that coo",NO,NO,True,True,102.7087,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-31T04:54:00.808000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Hell that's a very big arbitrage op there. Risk of them flying by the night is to high though for my taste. Who are thes,NO,NO,True,True,6320.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T19:30:49.798000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Honestly Jim, I think I was pretty clear that it was a massive cheat.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:36:54.140000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I mean it's all gucci - you do you - but there's probably a reason why I singled you out twice, and was frustrated for s",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-06T22:14:25.696000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"well he seems to at least not be backing down +https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1931111047408369863",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-07T17:51:14.912000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Come on people, let's end this now. I'm sure we can all find better things to do with our time.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:29:33.022000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,in fact I am gambling real usd dollars on this :),YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T00:30:29.309000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,that’s fair but I don’t think I should wait for an election to happen for the market to resolve. A party doesn’t become ,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-18T04:39:31.685000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"Somehow I missed this comment. Not sure what you mean by ""you're one to talk"". Where did I use a superlative as a placeh",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-08T20:11:08.483000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Maybe he started using it and found that he's enjoying it?,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-28T00:02:50.451000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,actually ya I'll do action at 79 even,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T05:34:16.639000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,in a nutshell yea kalshi and volatility,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-19T20:43:35.948000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Wait + will the sweepstakes version stay open during the election? I'm gonna close the mana version early, not sure if ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:33:29.347000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"This one is being shared around now. Not fully confirmed yet, but outfit matches.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-17T15:04:37.434000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","there’s every reason to believe the numbers +may + be inaccurate. They were already revised retroactively last month, w",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-20T00:48:26.742000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I wouldn't be surprised if Biden only wins just because no one wants Trump back, so actually much more people are abstai",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-08-27T02:36:40.938000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"This is essentially ""will Harris win NC"" right? Is there another state she might flip without also flipping NC?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-09-09T16:21:56.907000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Why would I be interested in betting honestly? It seems to be a painful theme for a decent part of a superpower that is ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T23:58:01.081000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/trump-federal-workers-quit-severance +: +“The White House expects 5% to 10% of federal ",NO,NO,True,True,5710.6889,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T01:08:08.596000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I don't argue with flat earthers either. And they get more respect from me than the 'it was the fairest election evar' ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-02T14:46:51.156000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm aware that it can be tough to make the distinction between ""party"" and ""organization"" in those circumstances, I'll t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-04T16:08:30.423000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Nate Silver has said that political prediction markets are relatively inefficient due to the emotionally charged nature.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-19T20:53:08.344000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Interesting question! We're still in beta here, let me test moving the date and see what happens. I think it's fine for ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-18T09:52:16.770000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Polymarket at 65% and Manifold at 38%. 🤔,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-02T10:35:50.963000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I have a question. Let politics be a side.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T04:40:22.141000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Apparently hush money isn't illegal, but if they can prove fraud and/or campaign finance violations, those are illegal: ",YES,YES,True,True,862.52,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-24T08:13:52.913000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Even polymarket isn't that low, so if you think that you can go make a lot of money and mana",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:48:32.423000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"NBC is also reporting the same photo as CNN: +https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-arraignment",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T19:25:11.379000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I’m too risk-averse, but I’ll do a $5 bet at 1:1 odds if you’d like 😆",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1700.6882,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-29T03:04:45.906000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"> + +@Tumbles + the economy, the border, Afghanistan, China, Israel, inflation, Racism, government debt, Mexico, fentan",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:43:13.638000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"I understand arbitraging is for the purpose of profit, but it skews the market to do a weighted average between this mar",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T13:54:32.614000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",You cannot trust LLMs. They hallucinate all the time.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T08:11:26.313000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Your logic would work if we were talking about options trading where your outcome is based on market sentiment, not obj",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-28T00:03:44.666000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"welp, we got half of a Trump backdown kind of",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T05:58:07.481000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Yes I went all in on this. I have my nuts. +I don’t think you do or believe what you claim to, otherwise you‘d take my m",NO,YES,False,True,46665.7438,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:35:03.332000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,ahhhh gotcha that's my misunderstanding. I'm still skeptical that polymarket has no fees. I find it hard to believe that,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,25678.9985,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-18T18:23:06.184000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://apnews.com/article/pentagon-doge-civilian-job-cuts-fbcb154fbe9d5904f456aa3655e57c44 +Roughly 50,000 to 60,000 ci",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:24:11.672000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,Honestly I am starting to accept that manifold sometimes is more efficient at pricing certain markets with how much liqu,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T17:29:16.411000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Bought NO and then sold again when I scrolled down far enough in the comments to realize that ""arrested"" doesn't mean ""a",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T02:15:16.837000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,God forbid an Office of Personnel Management director helps to resolve some markets /s,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-25T07:48:42.443000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Don't think it's complicated. +Trump's indictments will be a liability for anyone beyond his base +Joe Biden has led an ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T04:32:14.276000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,oh crap someone send shovels to this man’s house right now!,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:40:32.179000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"That's why I bought YES at 10% a year ago, lol.",YES,YES,True,True,49.8691,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:45:39.786000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Also, for anything subjective, people should not accumulate positions. It looks like + has around half his portfolio va",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,7501.3996,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T09:05:01.606000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I believe there are also fees to the liquidity providers that vary per market.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:57:48.345000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Oh but cropping would not work. There is definitely a white wall on the older one where there is a badge on the newer on,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:51:47.506000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"soooo what does ""enacted or executed"" mean to you, since that seems to provide you clarity that it doesn't give me. ""exe",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T17:34:17.520000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"If anyone is interested, i will put up to $5000 of real money on the result of this question with me getting No at curre",NO,NO,True,True,64346.2573,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T06:05:10.939000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I find it interesting that this market and the overall election odds are basically the same. Harris doesn’t need to flip,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-11-21T21:32:55.713000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Now all of a sudden you're an Enlightened Chad. Why bet differently here? Are you arbitrage betting instead of giving yo,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-11T13:39:27.564000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"""passed by both the US House and Senate"" - so this does not require Biden to sign the bill, correct?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T23:54:41.495000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,nothing will ever beat Jimmy carter death market imo,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:41:31.960000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,lol i think he just blocked me,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-24T22:04:11.309000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,is that a Chatgpt generated response?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T15:57:09.375000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T00:58:22.830000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,almost makes me want to sign up and bet no on polymarket,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T21:18:55.508000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","resolution criteria: +Outcome verified from +FRED +. +What matters is the +FRED + chart. If you want to adjust your b",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-06T05:22:55.449000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",how you managed to have 7 tags?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T08:44:41.727000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"not disputing that there are significant correlations between states, but they do change a bit between elections.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T17:11:56.781000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""Dude is literally on tape committing a crime that basically fits the letter of the law in Fulton County."" +Do you have ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-24T22:54:09.996000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Really??? I sold off all my shares in this because I thought that was the point, that surrender wouldn't count. Ugh.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:32:24.633000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The spread on Manifold for a M1000 (=$10) order is bigger than for a $1000 order on Polymarket,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,24516.0817,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-13T15:58:07.383000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","lol oops you're 100% right of course, edited the above to fix",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-17T22:53:37.859000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","As of writing this it is a dead heat with DeSantis at 38% each, Haley at 11% having announced. It seems clearly more lik",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-18T10:27:06.825000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,This is such a great resource that you are providing and you give it away for free. I love seeing blog that understand t,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-10T00:36:08.927000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Well maybe no because of Biden's old age others will find someone on the job much younger whom will serve US more.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-17T20:06:00.888000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I was thinking the chance of nominee change comes from Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope, currently on 1.8% to win the elect",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-13T15:34:06.059000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","* Trump took office in Jan 2017, not 2016",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:31:34.589000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,Seems to me like the media is already calling it a party and it self identifies as one,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-20T17:57:27.074000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Hmm, kind of messed up my limits when I entered them yesterday. Oh well, rather than profit maximizing, I guess for thi",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2969.9996,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:43:08.791000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,yes I agree with this. Most people may not even realize ownership has switched.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-24T22:18:17.214000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I mean, I mostly agree, but Nate Silver's model doesn't. I get the impression that these models give too much credence t",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-28T01:56:33.164000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",we live in the best possible reality,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T04:25:38.129000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,hope the typist is safe and don’t risk driving to office in snow! Definitely not saying this because I hold YES shares!,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T01:31:40.132000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"🤔 +Beneath a blaring azure sky, A caricature abides by chance, Amidst cacophony, bravely cries, ""Can accusation alter st",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T21:10:28.181000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,(thing i vaguely understand) PROVES (other team is stupid),YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-08T01:53:20.837000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"That one senator isn’t really pro-tik, either. He’s all tok.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-29T12:29:47.065000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Wokeism is a belief system that assumes any social disparity is caused by oppression. It's a postmodern perspective infl,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-05T22:01:26.360000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,The party doesn't need to have a decent chance of winning anything for Elon to create it. It's very easy to create parti,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-09T14:46:05.388000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",this market resolving no because trump decided he wants to pack the house would be among the funniest possible outcomes,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-08T01:41:53.194000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Could he be charged but not arrested?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T22:24:07.434000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Polymarket subsidizing liquidity providers with $5000 a week in a zero fee market,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,25516.0817,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T01:56:54.602000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,you do realize it is Jan 30 today and the market resolves tomorrow night?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:35:39.659000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Maybe but no one gives a shit. Half the point of an arrest is the public humiliation, in the US at least.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-05T03:37:21.404000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Nah. Nothing on the horizon that has much buzz. I only bought $5 because I don't see this market going below 30% for man,NO,NO,True,True,5.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-27T14:38:08.850000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,any no orders you want to put up?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-09T01:33:30.009000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Could you add my question in there: +https://manifold.markets/PaulHabermas/will-the-2024-tiktok-ban-hr-7521-be",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T06:44:52.896000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","the avg r primary voter likes him at least somewhat, thinks he was a good president, and also doesn't think he actually ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b4de21615ceb46fbd1f115e7fbbe9224031a41d9 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,289 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:46:55.578000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Paul has indicated he won't object to this 45 day gambit in the senate without the ukraine aid, but he +will + object (",flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:44:22.965000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,As far as I know in the US you can get ketamine prescribed to take home with zero issues if you can afford the couple th,flip,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-04T21:08:11.282000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Keith Rabois will unfortunately probably chicken out of this bet so I will pick it up on his behalf. Willing to bet up t,increase,increase,True,True,5075.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T23:20:59.509000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,watching movies on K can be an interesting and fun experience. it can make you feel like you're in the movie. i assume b,increase,hold,False,True,136.6465,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-03T02:11:26.528000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"It is quite remarkable how close this market is trading to + .",increase,hold,False,True,454.6447,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:15:05.583000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also politics is the only thing I have any formal education in. My bias is with +Publius +.",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:07:52.866000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I think he was about as electable as Biden, more electable than Hillary. I just think what mainstream media says about e",hold,hold,True,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-08T23:38:02.588000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Seems like the only way of getting this number is to count the dots but seems like 538 has this at around 32%-36%.,increase,hold,False,True,208.0894,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:00:05.239000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I think there is definitely a greater than 5% chance of that, yes. I think it's interesting that there's been basically ",flip,hold,False,True,1879.3986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-12-15T04:11:59.896000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Right before the first republican primary debate (Aug 23), this market was around 32%. Four debates later, with no menti",decrease,flip,False,True,46303.4029,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T17:05:27.936000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"The last early voting and mail-in numbers posted this morning have a total of 8,281,771 votes in Florida. I'm not sure w",flip,increase,False,True,1472.8998,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-07T12:55:16.245000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I remember Anna Nicole Smith was on Howard Stern and she'd never heard of 9-11,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:51:57.674000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"odd, you seem quite certain yet the market is at 44% and you have plenty Mana",increase,decrease,False,True,57.7049,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T19:38:16.076000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,McCarthy feigning hope so he dosen't give the appearance of giving up/not trying hard enough. Value here at anything bel,decrease,decrease,True,True,727.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T08:08:16.237000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"e.g. popular vote total for biden in 2020, the October 2022 FEC report has it as 81,283,501, the CNN results have it as ",increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T17:15:48.334000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,(this was the only option not already posted. Just trying to even out the noise),hold,hold,True,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-06T14:08:55.518000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),I bet YES but sold my position upon seeing this thread. I hadn't realized that the resolution criteria were significantl,hold,flip,False,True,24.4805,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:10.467000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Too bad it's not the 1800s and I can't just walk inside and convince my senator that I have 2000 mana on the line,flip,decrease,False,True,309.8533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-10T13:59:55.418000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"""In presidential years where Trump is on the ballot"". +You mean in two years. You can't glean a meaningful trend from a ",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:22:12.029000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Michael's Bot ruined that perfect 0%,decrease,decrease,True,True,1974.3732,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:16:45.779000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],lame! I was enjoying the fact that people's decisions would be locked into place lol,decrease,hold,False,True,2550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:14.187000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I just put 1500 mana on YES. It is a gamble, but I feel good about it.",flip,increase,False,True,1888.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-19T05:12:52.943000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,Have more faith in the market than that...,hold,increase,False,True,90.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:58:35.954000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,what’s with the sudden drop in probability? I can’t find any news of a deal bring made,flip,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:34:48.635000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,“McCarthy said House Republicans will meet at 4 p.m. Eastern after the failure of the stopgap measure. “It’s not the end,decrease,increase,False,True,2830.8108,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T10:31:30.914000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,In a few hours the question won’t be whether there’s going to be a shutdown - it’s how long the shutdown lasts!,hold,flip,False,True,2.9297,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:14:17.503000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I think Jamaal Bowman had a YES bet that he really didn't want to lose🤣,flip,hold,False,True,616.788,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-07T00:56:05.065000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Predictors, in case you were spooked by my latest comment, I want to update you that I have decided to NOT change the cr",hold,hold,True,True,229.6043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-27T07:00:44.133000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,You guys should bet it down :D,hold,flip,False,True,21276.6621,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-21T02:16:00.336000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I think 85% is reasonable. Yes, lesser known candidates have won before, but Trump is in a very different position than ",decrease,increase,False,True,482.4473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T01:23:02.102000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"I guess it’s easy to say this in hindsight but it always seemed more of a 50-50 +the proposed odds were 50/50! obviously",increase,decrease,False,True,22886.5021,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T21:55:46.773000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],?? I already said I mistook their tweet about their poll for a new poll… Not sure how that changes the fact that Ann mad,hold,decrease,False,True,144.4,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:38:14.144000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,McCarthy knows there will be a shutdown and he is just trying desperately not to be blamed. It won't work.,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-03-21T02:15:17.245000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"The former prez is back on Twitter, +His tweets are sure to make us bitter. +Will he tweet in 2023? +Only time will tell",hold,hold,True,True,7.2326,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:29:42.550000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Fortunes being made and lost right now,flip,increase,False,True,2888.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-02T02:53:42.937000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","https://youtu.be/tllRFIfEJRc +Nice video, people are really behind Trump, really hard to see this changing",increase,increase,True,True,480.248,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-10T19:14:31.772000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Based on a sample size of two, both in very different circumstances from today? Again, polls have changed their methodol",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:02:59.263000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Normally losing a primary is a pretty good sign that someone is unelectable. Bernie probably would have taken some of Tr,flip,hold,False,True,1203.4442,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-12-18T20:26:07.318000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"https://www.natesilver.net/p/nikki-haley-could-be-the-new-john +We’ve reached the point where the nominee being someone ",increase,increase,True,True,4437.5687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-09-14T06:22:32.617000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Why is it so high rn? Please bet no so I can fill my limit orders.,hold,flip,False,True,23181.6621,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-29T02:57:50.590000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),I think it's nice to make things as unambiguous as possible. The paragraph you quoted doesn't really touch on compound q,hold,hold,True,True,229.6043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:54:46.410000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"please resolve this soon, leagues will end soon.",increase,hold,False,True,4342.5068,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:10:11.978000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Bought in a tiny bit in case Biden signs after midnight,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:19:54.586000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I'll explain later. I kinda want to write a whole spiel about this market anyway because it's been weird,flip,decrease,False,True,1367.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-23T14:50:04.631000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"Donald Trump has been “discussing” the pros and cons of another debate with Kamala Harris, notwithstanding his statement",decrease,decrease,True,True,180.978,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:46:34.925000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"that's not true, several people got votes who weren't nominated during the several rounds of votes in january",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-01-31T18:27:26.914000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the ques",decrease,decrease,True,True,896.6667,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-21T05:32:57.999000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",I flipped my bet. Clearly the GOP cares nothing about winning. Chump 2024 all the way.,flip,flip,True,True,6033.8207,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T19:22:38.117000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"what is the argument for NO, they’re gonna pass a bill in the next 9 hours?",decrease,decrease,True,True,560.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-09-30T03:53:27.089000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,Gonna be quite who won based on the celebration or lack of one,increase,increase,True,True,250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T23:12:09.707000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Seems reasonable, but would be helpful if you have some YES and NO examples. +“different facets of concerns” - it has t",hold,decrease,False,True,2800.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:31:41.986000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Mate I’m an Aus could not care and I make perfect sense yu can’t open something that is open,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-03-03T03:40:02.722000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"He's sticking to truthsocial, his ego won't allow him to post lol",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-12-09T16:13:57.009000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"So for now, out of four GOP debates, no one has talked about AI. What’s the rationale for thinking it would be a topic i",hold,hold,True,True,3116.6505,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:41:45.425000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",why would he be removed from ballot in Blue states? Who would do that?,hold,increase,False,True,1079.2106,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T11:05:38.059000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),💯. That’s mainly due to one guy.,decrease,hold,False,True,16826.3026,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T23:18:55.836000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,hmmm.. 🤔🤔🤔not sure if an insult or not...🤔🤔🤔 ....,increase,hold,False,True,136.6465,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-26T21:13:20.284000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"They're a little bit the problem, there's a reason that tweet is newsworthy. They meant to pass some of the appropriatio",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-23T19:23:59.230000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"not strictly true, because I spend >70% of my mana creating questions and boosting my markets. it'd be nice if Manifold ",increase,hold,False,True,7965.0237,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:26:31.870000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"wrong, he wasn't president anymore during his trial. The trial happened in February 2021. Only 7 out of 50 senators vote",decrease,hold,False,True,1421.2529,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-05T05:42:57.766000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,the binder of tweets is cracking me up,increase,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:48:26.118000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Of course. They run all elections. When you get signatures to be on the ballot in the primary you turn them into the Sec,decrease,hold,False,True,13169.0371,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:22:06.387000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I could be wrong, but I'm not that nervous about my Yes position at the moment.",decrease,hold,False,True,486.5758,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:57:26.936000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"""In the first round of voting, +House Democratic Caucus + leader +Hakeem Jeffries + of New York received 212 votes, Mc",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T15:07:37.476000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Man you are dumber than I thought.,increase,decrease,False,True,8432.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-24T10:16:17.175000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,Does this resolve yes if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.,increase,decrease,False,True,164.5874,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-09T22:02:13.440000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"she has comments on the shorts blocked but not comments on other videos. So now I've commented ""trump won"", hoping that",increase,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T22:54:29.303000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"I trust her to resolve it honestly. What I don't know is whether she intends to resolve early if she finds out. If not, ",increase,decrease,False,True,450.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:00:24.481000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"in the future, super useful for that to be in the description lol",increase,hold,False,True,3187.6746,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:14:30.643000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","@BTE + A nice juicy M$10,000 limit order for you if you want it. He whines in every election and every rally, and it doe",hold,increase,False,True,14.2484,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-08T17:27:26.083000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"also, as a general point, everything i say only applies to the mana version of this market. Manifold itself owns, manage",decrease,hold,False,True,5789.5345,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:26:55.216000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I guess it has passed the Senate, they're currently at 53-4. I'm not sure if it needs a majority or super majority thoug",increase,decrease,False,True,4342.5068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:10:56.316000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Now THIS is what I call last day of Leagues shenanigans! + please fine Matt Gaetz, I think he's the one buying all the ",flip,hold,False,True,1631.4798,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:10:24.502000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I appreciate the kind words, the respect and admiration is definitely mutual. Are you on Discord?",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T01:43:59.061000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"This tweet is probably overstating things, but worth considering +https://x.com/quantian1/status/1852852083461935150",increase,decrease,False,True,2375.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-07T01:38:13.951000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),How does this question resolve if there are no debates? What if “debates” are attempted but only 1 candidate shows up?,increase,decrease,False,True,1050.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:46:44.445000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"prescription ketamine is legal federally though and prescription mills, I mean depression treatment centers, seem widesp",flip,decrease,False,True,20.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:00:43.848000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,I can't imagine one reason why anyone who previously voted for Biden would change their vote to Trump. I can give a lot ,flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:30:14.730000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Youngkin is definitely getting in after Virginia state elections because he is limited to a single term as governor. He ,decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-28T02:29:59.666000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"There's no +new +sources of automation job losses besides AI, though. So in context, yes, they +are + equivalent.",decrease,hold,False,True,1010.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T03:50:00.269000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"the FEC reports come out like 2 years after the election, are you saying you think they should wait that long",increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:59:54.845000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"yes there was 15 rounds, but you can cast votes for people who aren't nominated",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T15:00:14.400000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"afaik, nope. They use the probability after all bets in Manifold",hold,flip,False,True,350.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T13:01:32.554000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Trump is gonna lose so this won’t matter. Campaigning from a courtroom is a loser. I am stunned so many of you on here a,hold,increase,False,True,21044.9403,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:55:14.477000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Still has to pass the Senate and be signed by Biden within the next 9 hours for this to resolve to NO,decrease,decrease,True,True,195.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:24:12.866000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I am hearing reports that this has now happened.,flip,flip,True,True,1231.8733,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:37:43.982000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"i just felt like lighting some mana on fire, I have too much",flip,decrease,False,True,1532.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:55:15.415000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,They have no way to stop the shutdown now.,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:32:19.378000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,No way he puts the clean senate bill up,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-07T03:26:28.012000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,He will fail unless he stays away from people the whole time too.,flip,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-25T04:18:53.523000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"AI is becoming more well-known and powerful, but I don't think that the average person cares about AI enough for it to b",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:46:49.473000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,I make all the sense in the world and dollars like Musk buddy,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-04T22:23:07.617000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,is there a reason the probability is so high with this market? Are people expecting some rogue GOP congressman to nomina,hold,decrease,False,True,541.5385,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T13:37:38.492000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"This was the RCP 2000 prediction +http://web.archive.org/web/20001212163700/realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral",flip,hold,False,True,10.039,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:40:10.811000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,You have balls of steel. It looks like the new action is going to be in the Motion to Vacate markets. A good reminder ,decrease,decrease,True,True,314.9862,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-19T23:08:47.108000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"what happens if Elon faxes a prescription for the ketamine. Will ""it's prescription"" end a clearance investigation? W",hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:41:54.190000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,You're that certain they're going to pass something last-minute today?,increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-08T04:26:08.491000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,Under no circumstances would he find out first from this comment. Especially since it wouldn't bring him to a 90% probab,flip,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-04T21:30:57.491000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],there's already more than enough liquidity from limit orders but i'll upgrade this to Plus anyways to smooth things out,decrease,hold,False,True,141.5892,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-04T03:48:56.056000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],don't expect any admission to having missed a detail like that from,decrease,hold,False,True,2975.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:42:58.877000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"If I was +certain +I would be betting it much further down than this.",increase,decrease,False,True,1740.6606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:58:50.769000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,If this vote fails someone else is gonna need to be nominated next round...,decrease,decrease,True,True,3281.7263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:41.730000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,They can call for him to but he won’t. Would be a good response here though…,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-11-04T21:22:44.863000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"You didn't resolve it, you just closed it.",hold,decrease,False,True,23662.5793,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:20:50.152000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",happy to continue this on discord where the latency issues aren’t such a drag.,decrease,hold,False,True,8445.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-02T06:16:27.127000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Recent +interview with trump + (from June 26) scroll to the 14:00 he is asked:: ""...Would you go back to twitter?"" +- ",decrease,decrease,True,True,3254.187,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:47:35.105000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Who did? I can’t remember anyone. Even Trump was nominated.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3281.7263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T16:22:01.639000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"If it isn't Twitter, than he can't Tweet. So I would say NO. +But that is a great question for the Creator to clarify an",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:05:00.647000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Do you think the 8 who voted against him will now just sit and take it? I don't.,flip,increase,False,True,43.9807,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T19:28:28.636000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,I would leave it open until Election Day. Trump famously changes his mind all the time.,increase,hold,False,True,789.8168,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-28T10:59:59.459000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],I'm sure Trump will say something to distance himself from the joke. It's not like there's 1 million Puerto Ricans livin,flip,decrease,False,True,372.9004,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T08:11:25.441000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],if you pick a source beforehand it means there's no ambiguity about what to do if the discrepancy matters for this marke,increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-03T05:42:22.522000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"what's the difference between writing a tweet, vs returning to twitter permanently?",decrease,decrease,True,True,3267.187,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-07-27T19:53:27.474000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),we just don't have the technology...,decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T23:02:39.264000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I guess the YouTube video updates are the best evidence we have?,decrease,decrease,True,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T03:48:06.191000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"different sources have different numbers, that's my point",increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T05:43:53.193000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Honestly I am still thinking about it. I didn’t give enough consideration to the nuance which is why I also created the ,increase,decrease,False,True,18528.3184,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-04-12T21:18:29.210000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"If you only consider the salience of AI in politics currently, this seems overpriced. +But the NO buyers fail to consid",hold,increase,False,True,220.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-23T19:20:37.051000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],The early vote in FL is a wipeout so far. Looks like Trump by double digits at this point. Could change.,hold,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:32:38.759000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Trump is up 31% in the primary polling average and has 52% vote share. He has only gained since indictment news. Even if,increase,increase,True,True,81.1913,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:52:05.021000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Will be interesting to speculate on how this shutdown will end and not just the date when it ends. I'm going to guess it,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T04:01:35.540000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,24 hours from now is the intention I think,decrease,hold,False,True,3580.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-22T13:31:54.648000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"NO because nothing ever happens. +YES because a discharge petition seems the only way this doesn't happen and it is usua",increase,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:08:32.129000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,all these market fluctuations got me in a spanking mood...,flip,decrease,False,True,18.1059,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:47:12.886000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,STOP. IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH BEING ILLEGAL OR NOT.,increase,decrease,False,True,6462.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:07:25.036000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",You are making my point for me. The numbers you reference fail to account for how much he should have won by if he had m,decrease,increase,False,True,8345.8908,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T16:04:38.911000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"look at you, lying like the big boys, congrats on that",hold,hold,True,True,2725.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:58:45.839000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Would be good to see a manifold poll on who is responsible for the government shutdown. I blame McCarthy. Not Gaetz, not",flip,hold,False,True,388.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:12:37.849000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,How do you think it should be resolved if Biden signs it at 8am tomorrow morning?,flip,decrease,False,True,95.4814,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-06T12:48:34.032000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),definitely do not change the key resolution criteria this far in,hold,hold,True,True,151.3559,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:14.247000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I wish I had more mama to buy YES,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:28:18.219000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Seriously resolve this question as an on going investigation into Elon musk is always in place SERIOUSLY ONE AGENCY IS ,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:52:12.914000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,The problem with that theory is that it supposes Gaetz will allow himself to get cucked OR the Dems allow themselves to ,flip,decrease,False,True,43.9807,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-28T02:28:52.729000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Clarification one seems obviously correct. Clarification two seems to make it too narrow. Current fears about automation,decrease,increase,False,True,1010.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T22:20:50.345000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/28/kevin-mccarthy-tom-emmer-government-shutdown-motion-vacate/ +LOL, the",flip,flip,True,True,388.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T01:48:41.474000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Seriously, where do you live? I am curious about your vantage point.",hold,hold,True,True,35433.806,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:23:45.363000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],rabois shoulda taken the bet imo,increase,hold,False,True,6758.382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-09T10:58:18.190000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"I know I definitely didn't have ""Vermont secession under Supreme Senator Sanders"" on my bingo card!",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-10-14T22:01:14.212000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Because there are no other plausible contenders?,decrease,hold,False,True,810.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-07-20T04:19:54.375000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),What if there isn’t a general election debate?,hold,decrease,False,True,299.492,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-07-24T20:02:07.632000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,They have RFKjr at 10% and Newsom at 21% for democratic primaries so go figure. Their predictions are WILD,hold,decrease,False,True,166.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T07:45:03.159000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"I figure NO since both sides would need to see an upside, simultaneously. +I think Trump knows that if he wants to do be",increase,increase,True,True,235.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T17:55:15.013000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Somehow one of my comments disappeared but you can see in the article TRUMP GOT CRUSHED. Worst performance for an incumb,hold,increase,False,True,6033.8207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-21T02:37:01.269000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I think DeSantis might be underrated right now. Sure, he's had a bad media cycle and dropped in the polls, but he used t",increase,decrease,False,True,260.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T18:33:46.841000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Florida has a Supervisor of Elections position. Results are not managed by the Secretary of State. They don't have a liv,flip,hold,False,True,1472.8998,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-24T13:15:24.633000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"Polymarket could be lower because Polymarket leans right compared to Manifold, and so has more people who take Trump at ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T11:55:03.462000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,it can't be done. It's impossible! Sell now before it's too late!!,flip,increase,False,True,120.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T18:32:06.378000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,the most likely scenario right now is the judicial branch puts their foot on his throat and never takes it off. At this ,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:56:47.412000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,follow me on twitter I can DM you theories lol,flip,hold,False,True,2131.4798,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T02:12:16.396000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I don't want to doxx myself. I will say that I do live in the USA though, since someone who looked at when I was online ",decrease,hold,False,True,452.4473,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:12:22.612000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,McCarthy's has not been in this strong a position since he was first elected speaker.,decrease,increase,False,True,3100.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T20:09:34.458000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,one trillion dollars and you've got yourself a deal,increase,hold,False,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T19:40:31.710000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,good thing we didn't make this a sweep market,flip,hold,False,True,131.9997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-06-24T22:43:03.667000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Damn.. he’s not gonna tweeeeeeeeeet +Buy NO",hold,flip,False,True,20759.69,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-26T11:53:36.675000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Votehub, the site linked to that account, currently puts Trump up 7.9%.",flip,decrease,False,True,1960.5289,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-05-24T15:24:08.991000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,Arb markets: Sharing here so you can click them all and easily navigate. This thread + ACX Bot market are the biggest so,increase,hold,False,True,7912.69,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-25T00:57:52.615000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,I'm expecting this to resolve NO if twitter implodes in 2023?,hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T19:49:02.903000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I heard a random guy talking about Kamala doing worse with women outside of my office today. I'm still convinced this is,flip,hold,False,True,149.2889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T00:43:13.771000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I am quite sure that BTE thinks the true probability is way lower than 60%. +That said, I sorta subscribe to your though",decrease,decrease,True,True,1286.1586,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:11:11.063000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",it may come to light that he showed the documents to a foreign National he was engaged in business deals with and all of,decrease,increase,False,True,8345.8908,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T21:18:14.031000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Why not force 5 Rs to go with a REAL compromise candidate then, instead of tainted Kevin?",flip,flip,True,True,43.9807,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-21T02:57:12.448000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"If Trump falls behind by a fair amount, say 4-5 polling average or a solid 2 or 3+ in Wi Mi Pa, and then steps up to cha",increase,increase,True,True,250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-09-01T12:25:43.306000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Do you think that'll stop him?,flip,increase,False,True,581.1321,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-13T13:59:02.149000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Lol, yes. And I have a feeling this might be just the beginning of the cuckery to come.",decrease,increase,False,True,43.9807,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T05:33:18.482000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",I think you're underestimating Trump - or rather how his supporters think of him. He interrupts and uses tactics to get ,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-10T06:05:49.178000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Given AI's potential impact and increasing societal prominence, it will likely be a major topic in the 2024 presidential",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-11T07:28:20.434000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"how have polls ""changed their methodology"", exactly? As far as i can tell, the only ""change"" is to hedge towards Trump b",hold,decrease,False,True,7340.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-25T12:45:23.287000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Your counts and your projections seem aspirational. There's very little chance that Trump has a 300k vote lead. Accordin,flip,decrease,False,True,432.5163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T23:01:23.155000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,tbf some of the main election market comment threads got pretty close to toxic haha,decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-23T19:10:02.744000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],wdym...i am shovelling all my mana into YES to correct the wrongest market on the site,increase,increase,True,True,7965.0237,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:56:50.356000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Calling for votes on the senate stopgap or a clean CR and he will lose the speakership and he knows it. Both would pass ,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:21:02.906000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Very close indeed. I don't regret my bets. Good market everyone,flip,hold,False,True,1689.77,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T00:38:52.201000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,The fuss the made voting him in in the first place was all you needed to know about this market haha,decrease,hold,False,True,727.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-10T13:46:56.395000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"In presidential years where Trump is on the ballot they have overestimated democrats by multiple points, by even larger ",increase,increase,True,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T18:26:47.494000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,you can vote for people who aren't nominated,increase,hold,False,True,3498.5727,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:46:37.950000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I'm just startled, is all. And dubious of the GOP's ability to do... frankly much at all, atm.",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T07:04:44.379000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"oh yea, for sure this is probably polling error, but we're arguing about Trump's margin in Florida here.",hold,hold,True,True,2725.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-11T00:43:30.798000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Yes I do think that. They'd rather run Trump, lose, and claim election fraud, than run someone else and they win. +Not l",hold,increase,False,True,302.4473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T22:58:39.338000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,just for the record there’s no need. not taking bribes 🫡,increase,hold,False,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:11:43.264000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,It's always wise to bet on the sleepiness of Sleepy Joe,flip,hold,False,True,1806.8052,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:34:44.848000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Just heard it from Markey himself!,flip,increase,False,True,309.8533,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-02T23:51:33.376000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,I guess it could be done by the FBI.,increase,decrease,False,True,2252.5001,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:12:17.993000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I don't think the manipulation is a huge concern, because if it is being obviously manipulated then it will be deemed no",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T06:04:47.431000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"@MP what will the crisis involve? A bunch of hysteria and acrimony followed by what, Mass shootings?? Meh, sounds like a",decrease,increase,False,True,35033.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:53:41.365000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,it's not over!! call your senators!!,flip,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:40:33.991000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,The Ayes have it. Bennett didn't want to be the only non-ahole to vote No. I get it.,decrease,hold,False,True,314.9862,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:01:10.811000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,is this the fabled return of TRAUNCHE?,increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-04-30T06:40:03.543000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"the UI color and font is different. im not gonna put more money into these markets these i already used 2,200 mana in to",hold,decrease,False,True,37.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:10:28.624000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I promise you they do not. McCarthy is by far the most rational actor who is actually coming off his career high point d,decrease,increase,False,True,2330.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T11:48:27.758000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,if it happened with voluntary disclosure a long time ago it would be odd if it leaked now IMO,hold,increase,False,True,131.3896,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T19:12:55.081000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,White House signaling support. I think no D senator would cross so would guess that only leaves an R senator to delay fo,hold,decrease,False,True,1786.2524,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-12T00:37:01.891000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,this is the downhill mountain bike obstacle course equivalent of prediction markets; stay frosty,increase,decrease,False,True,50.2802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:19:21.543000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Sure, if people perceive their lives as worse, people will change their votes, but there are a few key Trump qualities t",flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-26T21:25:41.539000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Oh, I guess it was the comment thread immediately below.",increase,hold,False,True,1811.7906,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T13:44:28.196000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Here's their 2022 prediction using the terrible assumption that polling errors are constant. +https://www.realclearpoli",flip,decrease,False,True,10.039,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T03:59:46.101000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Currently Polymarket has 54c in Trump attending the first GOP debate. I think one would say that for the odds to flip, a",hold,decrease,False,True,220.8393,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:58:45.448000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I watched Jordan get nominated at least twice also.,decrease,increase,False,True,3281.7263,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-19T23:20:02.901000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"MJ is illegal for most purposes under federal law. Someone can be prescribed ketamine by a licensed physician, off labe",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-07-24T21:11:23.619000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"It might be difficult for the question to resolve positively even if there was an investigation. If there was, Musk woul",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T07:23:03.278000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],have you seen the early voting in Florida. You’re citing shitty polls. He’s literally up in the PV at RCP who underestim,hold,increase,False,True,144.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-08-10T16:41:48.250000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Looks like the DWAC deal is actually going through—now with super-voting stock! +https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/e",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:39:09.680000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I just regret not selling my YES at 90, like I should have, and rebuying it at 40.",decrease,decrease,True,True,291.5758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-14T18:31:26.618000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Edit it has come to my attention that + already made a market that has veeerrryyy similar resolution criteria as the on",flip,hold,False,True,455.0416,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-25T17:32:38.016000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Thanks for the clarification and the peak at your aggregate data. The unaggravated crosstabs estimates of independent su,flip,decrease,False,True,2932.5163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-09-29T02:44:43.254000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,Where approximately do you live? Do you work from home?,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:17:37.834000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Could be criminal. Disrupting an official proceeding etc.,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T03:51:32.491000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Even if it doesn't matter to some Trump voters, he needs every voter he had last time (and more) to actually win the ele",flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T18:30:00.380000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Okay, Giminez clown mode is my clarification, thank you!",hold,hold,True,True,196.6887,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T02:15:58.635000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"dude, I told you, the Federalist Society is starting to understand that Trump could essentially undo everything they acc",decrease,decrease,True,True,33963.806,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-05T07:41:40.820000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"Still buying no, but I am in awe! I want you to prove me wrong.",hold,increase,False,True,1450.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-23T00:05:28.927000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,What is the sound of one hand clapping,hold,hold,True,True,41238.308,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-08T22:52:08.234000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"Trump can't have won in both 2020 and 2024 because of the two-term limit, so logically if he won in one year he can't ha",hold,decrease,False,True,25.304,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-10T23:30:22.817000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,help me sell out i have loans to pay,decrease,decrease,True,True,7200.4066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:36:19.451000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,it's the end. he just doesn't want to admit it yet.,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:25:27.847000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Too bad we can't get a Bennett vote market in time.,decrease,hold,False,True,314.9862,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-17T13:57:59.275000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"YES - if the moderator asks each candidate one Q about AI but the questions aren't identical, then i think that would qu",hold,hold,True,True,350.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T23:22:01.519000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Which wasn't that strong, which is why he's out right now. He had to agree to install a Sword of Damocles over his head",flip,decrease,False,True,43.9807,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-07T17:19:10.273000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Tampa could survive a cat 3-4 hurricane with minimal damage to infrastructure. The bigger concern might be flooding in C,flip,hold,False,True,130.0847,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:11:44.799000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,You are clearly not hearing me because I am saying I DO GET IT!! That is why it is a terminal cancer and not something t,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:01:44.357000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"so if McCarthy is nominated in a hypothetical second vote today, market would resolve as YES? Doesn't this go against yo",decrease,flip,False,True,2201.3448,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:01:21.207000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"I didn't anticipate how long this would be drawn out in crafting the question, and that's on me.",decrease,decrease,True,True,41.4968,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:42:47.171000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,So is smoking weed in California dude.,increase,decrease,False,True,5362.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T19:47:12.029000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,Agreed. This is still trading at ~20% on most platforms.,increase,hold,False,True,141.5559,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-23T18:36:25.126000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"while Manifold dawdles, actual big boys with money on the line know what's up",increase,increase,True,True,7965.0237,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:31.898000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,can you do 1500 more at a better price? :),increase,increase,True,True,1678.3493,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-04-10T14:12:03.829000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"I highly doubt that. Republicans gave up on trying to ban porn a long time ago, and I don't see how AI porn specifically",hold,hold,True,True,20.56,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T23:19:21.650000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,I believe Ketamine has a warning label that says “DO NOT DESIGN ROCKETS WHILE TAKING THIS MEDICATION”.,increase,hold,False,True,9572.7967,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-04-28T12:58:18.929000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"How would this resolve in the event there are no presidential debates? +(see: +https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/27/",hold,decrease,False,True,90.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T13:25:07.235000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],in what way are they a right leaning aggregator?? They overestimated Biden in the popular vote and in almost every state,hold,increase,False,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:35:41.584000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",You still aren’t addressing why the Republicans will chose essentially a protest candidate because he CANNOT win the gen,decrease,increase,False,True,8345.8908,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-10-08T19:48:57.945000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"CNN issues deadline for Trump and Harris to agree to final 2024 debate ( +msn.com +) +“With less than 30 days to Electio",hold,decrease,False,True,44658.4668,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:19:34.368000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,this is some shit Kevin Spacey would've pulled in House of Cards LMAO,flip,hold,False,True,18.1059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T11:43:38.185000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,It says by the end of 2023. If it had already happened and the news is just slowly leaking out it should resolve YES. It,hold,decrease,False,True,19461.7523,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:58:04.724000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"ok quick question: what the fuck +I do not understand the wiggles.",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:09:02.450000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"It's fully passed in the senate now, just waiting on the white house.",increase,increase,True,True,4342.5068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:18.294000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Sorry, I meant ""market dynamics""",flip,hold,False,True,1402.1435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-01-13T04:58:19.583000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"inb4 gpt-5 comes out in the middle of the election, discussion of AI greatly increases again, and this goes up",increase,increase,True,True,281.5621,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T16:36:03.045000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"""have you seen the early voting in Florida"" +Completely in line with Selzer's poll and the first internal. Maybe it come",hold,flip,False,True,1500.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-10-01T05:52:43.151000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"I see they are selling dollars for 83 cents here +best of luck!",increase,decrease,False,True,333.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..79ac53743688a4449f32bd8c4cd45559e29ec61a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,147 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:58:45.448000+00:00,I watched Jordan get nominated at least twice also.,decrease,hold,False +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T23:01:23.155000+00:00,tbf some of the main election market comment threads got pretty close to toxic haha,decrease,hold,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T00:43:13.771000+00:00,"I am quite sure that BTE thinks the true probability is way lower than 60%. +That said, I sorta subscribe to your though",decrease,hold,False +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-10T23:30:22.817000+00:00,help me sell out i have loans to pay,decrease,decrease,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-10T06:05:49.178000+00:00,"Given AI's potential impact and increasing societal prominence, it will likely be a major topic in the 2024 presidential",hold,decrease,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:40:33.991000+00:00,The Ayes have it. Bennett didn't want to be the only non-ahole to vote No. I get it.,decrease,hold,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T18:32:06.378000+00:00,the most likely scenario right now is the judicial branch puts their foot on his throat and never takes it off. At this ,decrease,hold,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-29T02:57:50.590000+00:00,I think it's nice to make things as unambiguous as possible. The paragraph you quoted doesn't really touch on compound q,hold,hold,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T11:05:38.059000+00:00,💯. That’s mainly due to one guy.,decrease,hold,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:26:31.870000+00:00,"wrong, he wasn't president anymore during his trial. The trial happened in February 2021. Only 7 out of 50 senators vote",decrease,decrease,True +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:01:44.357000+00:00,"so if McCarthy is nominated in a hypothetical second vote today, market would resolve as YES? Doesn't this go against yo",decrease,hold,False +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-03-21T02:15:17.245000+00:00,"The former prez is back on Twitter, +His tweets are sure to make us bitter. +Will he tweet in 2023? +Only time will tell",hold,hold,True +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-08-10T16:41:48.250000+00:00,"Looks like the DWAC deal is actually going through—now with super-voting stock! +https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/e",hold,decrease,False +4be8r1648q,2024-09-23T14:50:04.631000+00:00,"Donald Trump has been “discussing” the pros and cons of another debate with Kamala Harris, notwithstanding his statement",decrease,decrease,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-12-09T16:13:57.009000+00:00,"So for now, out of four GOP debates, no one has talked about AI. What’s the rationale for thinking it would be a topic i",hold,decrease,False +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-04T22:23:07.617000+00:00,is there a reason the probability is so high with this market? Are people expecting some rogue GOP congressman to nomina,hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:41:45.425000+00:00,why would he be removed from ballot in Blue states? Who would do that?,hold,hold,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T23:12:09.707000+00:00,"Seems reasonable, but would be helpful if you have some YES and NO examples. +“different facets of concerns” - it has t",hold,hold,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T13:25:07.235000+00:00,in what way are they a right leaning aggregator?? They overestimated Biden in the popular vote and in almost every state,hold,decrease,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-06T14:08:55.518000+00:00,I bet YES but sold my position upon seeing this thread. I hadn't realized that the resolution criteria were significantl,hold,decrease,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:10:11.978000+00:00,Bought in a tiny bit in case Biden signs after midnight,decrease,decrease,True +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-07-24T21:11:23.619000+00:00,"It might be difficult for the question to resolve positively even if there was an investigation. If there was, Musk woul",hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-01-31T18:27:26.914000+00:00,"If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the ques",decrease,decrease,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T06:04:47.431000+00:00,"@MP what will the crisis involve? A bunch of hysteria and acrimony followed by what, Mass shootings?? Meh, sounds like a",decrease,hold,False +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:10:28.624000+00:00,I promise you they do not. McCarthy is by far the most rational actor who is actually coming off his career high point d,decrease,hold,False +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-03T05:42:22.522000+00:00,"what's the difference between writing a tweet, vs returning to twitter permanently?",decrease,hold,False +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-04T21:30:57.491000+00:00,there's already more than enough liquidity from limit orders but i'll upgrade this to Plus anyways to smooth things out,decrease,hold,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-06T12:48:34.032000+00:00,definitely do not change the key resolution criteria this far in,hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T05:33:18.482000+00:00,I think you're underestimating Trump - or rather how his supporters think of him. He interrupts and uses tactics to get ,hold,hold,True +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-19T23:08:47.108000+00:00,"what happens if Elon faxes a prescription for the ketamine. Will ""it's prescription"" end a clearance investigation? W",hold,decrease,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T03:59:46.101000+00:00,"Currently Polymarket has 54c in Trump attending the first GOP debate. I think one would say that for the odds to flip, a",hold,decrease,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-07-20T04:19:54.375000+00:00,What if there isn’t a general election debate?,hold,decrease,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:34:48.635000+00:00,“McCarthy said House Republicans will meet at 4 p.m. Eastern after the failure of the stopgap measure. “It’s not the end,decrease,decrease,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-07-27T19:53:27.474000+00:00,we just don't have the technology...,decrease,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:15:05.583000+00:00,"Also politics is the only thing I have any formal education in. My bias is with +Publius +.",decrease,hold,False +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T17:15:48.334000+00:00,(this was the only option not already posted. Just trying to even out the noise),hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:55:14.477000+00:00,Still has to pass the Senate and be signed by Biden within the next 9 hours for this to resolve to NO,decrease,decrease,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-10-14T22:01:14.212000+00:00,Because there are no other plausible contenders?,decrease,hold,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-21T02:16:00.336000+00:00,"I think 85% is reasonable. Yes, lesser known candidates have won before, but Trump is in a very different position than ",decrease,hold,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:11:44.799000+00:00,You are clearly not hearing me because I am saying I DO GET IT!! That is why it is a terminal cancer and not something t,decrease,decrease,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-28T02:29:59.666000+00:00,"There's no +new +sources of automation job losses besides AI, though. So in context, yes, they +are + equivalent.",decrease,hold,False +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:46:49.473000+00:00,I make all the sense in the world and dollars like Musk buddy,decrease,hold,False +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T11:43:38.185000+00:00,It says by the end of 2023. If it had already happened and the news is just slowly leaking out it should resolve YES. It,hold,decrease,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-11T00:43:30.798000+00:00,"Yes I do think that. They'd rather run Trump, lose, and claim election fraud, than run someone else and they win. +Not l",hold,hold,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-07-24T20:02:07.632000+00:00,They have RFKjr at 10% and Newsom at 21% for democratic primaries so go figure. Their predictions are WILD,hold,decrease,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:10:24.502000+00:00,"I appreciate the kind words, the respect and admiration is definitely mutual. Are you on Discord?",decrease,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:12:17.993000+00:00,"I don't think the manipulation is a huge concern, because if it is being obviously manipulated then it will be deemed no",hold,hold,True +4be8r1648q,2024-09-23T00:05:28.927000+00:00,What is the sound of one hand clapping,hold,hold,True +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-09T10:58:18.190000+00:00,"I know I definitely didn't have ""Vermont secession under Supreme Senator Sanders"" on my bingo card!",decrease,hold,False +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-04-30T06:40:03.543000+00:00,"the UI color and font is different. im not gonna put more money into these markets these i already used 2,200 mana in to",hold,decrease,False +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-04T03:48:56.056000+00:00,don't expect any admission to having missed a detail like that from,decrease,decrease,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T16:04:38.911000+00:00,"look at you, lying like the big boys, congrats on that",hold,decrease,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:07:25.036000+00:00,You are making my point for me. The numbers you reference fail to account for how much he should have won by if he had m,decrease,decrease,True +4be8r1648q,2024-09-24T13:15:24.633000+00:00,"Polymarket could be lower because Polymarket leans right compared to Manifold, and so has more people who take Trump at ",decrease,decrease,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:30:14.730000+00:00,Youngkin is definitely getting in after Virginia state elections because he is limited to a single term as governor. He ,decrease,decrease,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:48:26.118000+00:00,Of course. They run all elections. When you get signatures to be on the ballot in the primary you turn them into the Sec,decrease,hold,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-04-12T21:18:29.210000+00:00,"If you only consider the salience of AI in politics currently, this seems overpriced. +But the NO buyers fail to consid",hold,hold,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-07T00:56:05.065000+00:00,"Predictors, in case you were spooked by my latest comment, I want to update you that I have decided to NOT change the cr",hold,hold,True +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:28:18.219000+00:00,Seriously resolve this question as an on going investigation into Elon musk is always in place SERIOUSLY ONE AGENCY IS ,decrease,hold,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-04-10T14:12:03.829000+00:00,"I highly doubt that. Republicans gave up on trying to ban porn a long time ago, and I don't see how AI porn specifically",hold,hold,True +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-08T22:52:08.234000+00:00,"Trump can't have won in both 2020 and 2024 because of the two-term limit, so logically if he won in one year he can't ha",hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:11:11.063000+00:00,it may come to light that he showed the documents to a foreign National he was engaged in business deals with and all of,decrease,decrease,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T19:12:55.081000+00:00,White House signaling support. I think no D senator would cross so would guess that only leaves an R senator to delay fo,hold,decrease,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T19:22:38.117000+00:00,"what is the argument for NO, they’re gonna pass a bill in the next 9 hours?",decrease,decrease,True +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:47:35.105000+00:00,Who did? I can’t remember anyone. Even Trump was nominated.,decrease,decrease,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-04-28T12:58:18.929000+00:00,"How would this resolve in the event there are no presidential debates? +(see: +https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/27/",hold,decrease,False +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T18:30:00.380000+00:00,"Okay, Giminez clown mode is my clarification, thank you!",hold,decrease,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-28T02:28:52.729000+00:00,Clarification one seems obviously correct. Clarification two seems to make it too narrow. Current fears about automation,decrease,hold,False +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:16:45.779000+00:00,lame! I was enjoying the fact that people's decisions would be locked into place lol,decrease,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:25:27.847000+00:00,Too bad we can't get a Bennett vote market in time.,decrease,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:40:10.811000+00:00,You have balls of steel. It looks like the new action is going to be in the Motion to Vacate markets. A good reminder ,decrease,decrease,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:22:12.029000+00:00,Michael's Bot ruined that perfect 0%,decrease,hold,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-27T07:00:44.133000+00:00,You guys should bet it down :D,hold,decrease,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-11-04T21:22:44.863000+00:00,"You didn't resolve it, you just closed it.",hold,hold,True +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:12:22.612000+00:00,McCarthy's has not been in this strong a position since he was first elected speaker.,decrease,hold,False +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T21:55:46.773000+00:00,?? I already said I mistook their tweet about their poll for a new poll… Not sure how that changes the fact that Ann mad,hold,decrease,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-09-14T06:22:32.617000+00:00,Why is it so high rn? Please bet no so I can fill my limit orders.,hold,decrease,False +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:31:41.986000+00:00,Mate I’m an Aus could not care and I make perfect sense yu can’t open something that is open,decrease,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:39:09.680000+00:00,"I just regret not selling my YES at 90, like I should have, and rebuying it at 40.",decrease,decrease,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:07:52.866000+00:00,"I think he was about as electable as Biden, more electable than Hillary. I just think what mainstream media says about e",hold,hold,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T07:23:03.278000+00:00,have you seen the early voting in Florida. You’re citing shitty polls. He’s literally up in the PV at RCP who underestim,hold,hold,True +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-19T23:20:02.901000+00:00,"MJ is illegal for most purposes under federal law. Someone can be prescribed ketamine by a licensed physician, off labe",hold,hold,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T07:04:44.379000+00:00,"oh yea, for sure this is probably polling error, but we're arguing about Trump's margin in Florida here.",hold,hold,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T02:12:16.396000+00:00,"I don't want to doxx myself. I will say that I do live in the USA though, since someone who looked at when I was online ",decrease,hold,False +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-25T00:57:52.615000+00:00,I'm expecting this to resolve NO if twitter implodes in 2023?,hold,decrease,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T02:15:58.635000+00:00,"dude, I told you, the Federalist Society is starting to understand that Trump could essentially undo everything they acc",decrease,decrease,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-10T13:59:55.418000+00:00,"""In presidential years where Trump is on the ballot"". +You mean in two years. You can't glean a meaningful trend from a ",hold,decrease,False +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-08T17:27:26.083000+00:00,"also, as a general point, everything i say only applies to the mana version of this market. Manifold itself owns, manage",decrease,hold,False +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T11:48:27.758000+00:00,if it happened with voluntary disclosure a long time ago it would be odd if it leaked now IMO,hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T19:38:16.076000+00:00,McCarthy feigning hope so he dosen't give the appearance of giving up/not trying hard enough. Value here at anything bel,decrease,decrease,True +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-05T07:41:40.820000+00:00,"Still buying no, but I am in awe! I want you to prove me wrong.",hold,hold,True +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:01:21.207000+00:00,"I didn't anticipate how long this would be drawn out in crafting the question, and that's on me.",decrease,decrease,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-17T13:57:59.275000+00:00,"YES - if the moderator asks each candidate one Q about AI but the questions aren't identical, then i think that would qu",hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:20:50.152000+00:00,happy to continue this on discord where the latency issues aren’t such a drag.,decrease,hold,False +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-06-24T22:43:03.667000+00:00,"Damn.. he’s not gonna tweeeeeeeeeet +Buy NO",hold,decrease,False +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-02T06:16:27.127000+00:00,"Recent +interview with trump + (from June 26) scroll to the 14:00 he is asked:: ""...Would you go back to twitter?"" +- ",decrease,decrease,True +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-19T05:12:52.943000+00:00,Have more faith in the market than that...,hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:22:06.387000+00:00,"I could be wrong, but I'm not that nervous about my Yes position at the moment.",decrease,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T00:38:52.201000+00:00,The fuss the made voting him in in the first place was all you needed to know about this market haha,decrease,hold,False +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:58:50.769000+00:00,If this vote fails someone else is gonna need to be nominated next round...,decrease,decrease,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-26T21:13:20.284000+00:00,"They're a little bit the problem, there's a reason that tweet is newsworthy. They meant to pass some of the appropriatio",decrease,decrease,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-25T04:18:53.523000+00:00,"AI is becoming more well-known and powerful, but I don't think that the average person cares about AI enough for it to b",hold,hold,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-12-15T04:11:59.896000+00:00,"Right before the first republican primary debate (Aug 23), this market was around 32%. Four debates later, with no menti",decrease,decrease,True +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-03-03T03:40:02.722000+00:00,"He's sticking to truthsocial, his ego won't allow him to post lol",hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T17:55:15.013000+00:00,Somehow one of my comments disappeared but you can see in the article TRUMP GOT CRUSHED. Worst performance for an incumb,hold,decrease,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T10:31:30.914000+00:00,In a few hours the question won’t be whether there’s going to be a shutdown - it’s how long the shutdown lasts!,hold,decrease,False +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-07T12:55:16.245000+00:00,I remember Anna Nicole Smith was on Howard Stern and she'd never heard of 9-11,hold,decrease,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:35:41.584000+00:00,You still aren’t addressing why the Republicans will chose essentially a protest candidate because he CANNOT win the gen,decrease,hold,False +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-23T19:20:37.051000+00:00,The early vote in FL is a wipeout so far. Looks like Trump by double digits at this point. Could change.,hold,hold,True +4be8r1648q,2024-10-08T19:48:57.945000+00:00,"CNN issues deadline for Trump and Harris to agree to final 2024 debate ( +msn.com +) +“With less than 30 days to Electio",hold,decrease,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T04:01:35.540000+00:00,24 hours from now is the intention I think,decrease,decrease,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T01:48:41.474000+00:00,"Seriously, where do you live? I am curious about your vantage point.",hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T15:00:14.400000+00:00,"afaik, nope. They use the probability after all bets in Manifold",hold,hold,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T13:01:32.554000+00:00,Trump is gonna lose so this won’t matter. Campaigning from a courtroom is a loser. I am stunned so many of you on here a,hold,decrease,False +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-13T13:59:02.149000+00:00,"Lol, yes. And I have a feeling this might be just the beginning of the cuckery to come.",decrease,hold,False +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T16:36:03.045000+00:00,"""have you seen the early voting in Florida"" +Completely in line with Selzer's poll and the first internal. Maybe it come",hold,decrease,False +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T23:02:39.264000+00:00,I guess the YouTube video updates are the best evidence we have?,decrease,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:14:30.643000+00:00,"@BTE + A nice juicy M$10,000 limit order for you if you want it. He whines in every election and every rally, and it doe",hold,hold,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-10T19:14:31.772000+00:00,"Based on a sample size of two, both in very different circumstances from today? Again, polls have changed their methodol",hold,hold,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-11T07:28:20.434000+00:00,"how have polls ""changed their methodology"", exactly? As far as i can tell, the only ""change"" is to hedge towards Trump b",hold,decrease,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..690da363bfa4360d7cf28115440081f72fcfaf20 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,144 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T17:05:27.936000+00:00,"The last early voting and mail-in numbers posted this morning have a total of 8,281,771 votes in Florida. I'm not sure w",flip,hold,False +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:52:12.914000+00:00,The problem with that theory is that it supposes Gaetz will allow himself to get cucked OR the Dems allow themselves to ,flip,flip,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-07-24T20:02:07.632000+00:00,They have RFKjr at 10% and Newsom at 21% for democratic primaries so go figure. Their predictions are WILD,hold,hold,True +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-04-30T06:40:03.543000+00:00,"the UI color and font is different. im not gonna put more money into these markets these i already used 2,200 mana in to",hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:14:17.503000+00:00,I think Jamaal Bowman had a YES bet that he really didn't want to lose🤣,flip,flip,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:41.730000+00:00,They can call for him to but he won’t. Would be a good response here though…,flip,flip,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:00:43.848000+00:00,I can't imagine one reason why anyone who previously voted for Biden would change their vote to Trump. I can give a lot ,flip,hold,False +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T13:25:07.235000+00:00,in what way are they a right leaning aggregator?? They overestimated Biden in the popular vote and in almost every state,hold,flip,False +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-07-24T21:11:23.619000+00:00,"It might be difficult for the question to resolve positively even if there was an investigation. If there was, Musk woul",hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:29:42.550000+00:00,Fortunes being made and lost right now,flip,hold,False +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T16:04:38.911000+00:00,"look at you, lying like the big boys, congrats on that",hold,flip,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T05:33:18.482000+00:00,I think you're underestimating Trump - or rather how his supporters think of him. He interrupts and uses tactics to get ,hold,hold,True +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-07T03:26:28.012000+00:00,He will fail unless he stays away from people the whole time too.,flip,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:24:12.866000+00:00,I am hearing reports that this has now happened.,flip,flip,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:14:30.643000+00:00,"@BTE + A nice juicy M$10,000 limit order for you if you want it. He whines in every election and every rally, and it doe",hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:12:37.849000+00:00,How do you think it should be resolved if Biden signs it at 8am tomorrow morning?,flip,hold,False +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-04T22:23:07.617000+00:00,is there a reason the probability is so high with this market? Are people expecting some rogue GOP congressman to nomina,hold,hold,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-06T14:08:55.518000+00:00,I bet YES but sold my position upon seeing this thread. I hadn't realized that the resolution criteria were significantl,hold,flip,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-11-04T21:22:44.863000+00:00,"You didn't resolve it, you just closed it.",hold,hold,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-07-20T04:19:54.375000+00:00,What if there isn’t a general election debate?,hold,hold,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-09-01T12:25:43.306000+00:00,Do you think that'll stop him?,flip,hold,False +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T11:55:03.462000+00:00,it can't be done. It's impossible! Sell now before it's too late!!,flip,flip,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-11T00:43:30.798000+00:00,"Yes I do think that. They'd rather run Trump, lose, and claim election fraud, than run someone else and they win. +Not l",hold,hold,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T18:33:46.841000+00:00,Florida has a Supervisor of Elections position. Results are not managed by the Secretary of State. They don't have a liv,flip,hold,False +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-08-10T16:41:48.250000+00:00,"Looks like the DWAC deal is actually going through—now with super-voting stock! +https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/e",hold,flip,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T15:00:14.400000+00:00,"afaik, nope. They use the probability after all bets in Manifold",hold,flip,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:10.467000+00:00,Too bad it's not the 1800s and I can't just walk inside and convince my senator that I have 2000 mana on the line,flip,flip,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:37:43.982000+00:00,"i just felt like lighting some mana on fire, I have too much",flip,flip,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-07T00:56:05.065000+00:00,"Predictors, in case you were spooked by my latest comment, I want to update you that I have decided to NOT change the cr",hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:46:55.578000+00:00,"Paul has indicated he won't object to this 45 day gambit in the senate without the ukraine aid, but he +will + object (",flip,flip,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:02:59.263000+00:00,Normally losing a primary is a pretty good sign that someone is unelectable. Bernie probably would have taken some of Tr,flip,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:08:32.129000+00:00,all these market fluctuations got me in a spanking mood...,flip,hold,False +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T16:22:01.639000+00:00,"If it isn't Twitter, than he can't Tweet. So I would say NO. +But that is a great question for the Creator to clarify an",flip,flip,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:52:05.021000+00:00,Will be interesting to speculate on how this shutdown will end and not just the date when it ends. I'm going to guess it,flip,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T17:55:15.013000+00:00,Somehow one of my comments disappeared but you can see in the article TRUMP GOT CRUSHED. Worst performance for an incumb,hold,flip,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-12-09T16:13:57.009000+00:00,"So for now, out of four GOP debates, no one has talked about AI. What’s the rationale for thinking it would be a topic i",hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:00:05.239000+00:00,"I think there is definitely a greater than 5% chance of that, yes. I think it's interesting that there's been basically ",flip,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:58:35.954000+00:00,what’s with the sudden drop in probability? I can’t find any news of a deal bring made,flip,flip,True +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-19T05:12:52.943000+00:00,Have more faith in the market than that...,hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:32:19.378000+00:00,No way he puts the clean senate bill up,flip,flip,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-26T11:53:36.675000+00:00,"Votehub, the site linked to that account, currently puts Trump up 7.9%.",flip,hold,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T01:48:41.474000+00:00,"Seriously, where do you live? I am curious about your vantage point.",hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:12:17.993000+00:00,"I don't think the manipulation is a huge concern, because if it is being obviously manipulated then it will be deemed no",hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:58:45.839000+00:00,"Would be good to see a manifold poll on who is responsible for the government shutdown. I blame McCarthy. Not Gaetz, not",flip,flip,True +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T11:43:38.185000+00:00,It says by the end of 2023. If it had already happened and the news is just slowly leaking out it should resolve YES. It,hold,flip,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T03:59:46.101000+00:00,"Currently Polymarket has 54c in Trump attending the first GOP debate. I think one would say that for the odds to flip, a",hold,hold,True +4be8r1648q,2024-09-23T00:05:28.927000+00:00,What is the sound of one hand clapping,hold,hold,True +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:46:44.445000+00:00,"prescription ketamine is legal federally though and prescription mills, I mean depression treatment centers, seem widesp",flip,flip,True +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T19:40:31.710000+00:00,good thing we didn't make this a sweep market,flip,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:55:15.415000+00:00,They have no way to stop the shutdown now.,flip,flip,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:19:54.586000+00:00,I'll explain later. I kinda want to write a whole spiel about this market anyway because it's been weird,flip,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:56:50.356000+00:00,Calling for votes on the senate stopgap or a clean CR and he will lose the speakership and he knows it. Both would pass ,flip,flip,True +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-07T12:55:16.245000+00:00,I remember Anna Nicole Smith was on Howard Stern and she'd never heard of 9-11,hold,hold,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-25T12:45:23.287000+00:00,Your counts and your projections seem aspirational. There's very little chance that Trump has a 300k vote lead. Accordin,flip,hold,False +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T19:49:02.903000+00:00,I heard a random guy talking about Kamala doing worse with women outside of my office today. I'm still convinced this is,flip,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:21:02.906000+00:00,Very close indeed. I don't regret my bets. Good market everyone,flip,hold,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-06T12:48:34.032000+00:00,definitely do not change the key resolution criteria this far in,hold,hold,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-04-12T21:18:29.210000+00:00,"If you only consider the salience of AI in politics currently, this seems overpriced. +But the NO buyers fail to consid",hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:14.187000+00:00,"I just put 1500 mana on YES. It is a gamble, but I feel good about it.",flip,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:14.247000+00:00,I wish I had more mama to buy YES,flip,hold,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-17T13:57:59.275000+00:00,"YES - if the moderator asks each candidate one Q about AI but the questions aren't identical, then i think that would qu",hold,hold,True +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-19T23:20:02.901000+00:00,"MJ is illegal for most purposes under federal law. Someone can be prescribed ketamine by a licensed physician, off labe",hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:11:43.264000+00:00,It's always wise to bet on the sleepiness of Sleepy Joe,flip,hold,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-04-28T12:58:18.929000+00:00,"How would this resolve in the event there are no presidential debates? +(see: +https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/27/",hold,hold,True +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T18:30:00.380000+00:00,"Okay, Giminez clown mode is my clarification, thank you!",hold,hold,True +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T21:18:14.031000+00:00,"Why not force 5 Rs to go with a REAL compromise candidate then, instead of tainted Kevin?",flip,flip,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-10T19:14:31.772000+00:00,"Based on a sample size of two, both in very different circumstances from today? Again, polls have changed their methodol",hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:53:41.365000+00:00,it's not over!! call your senators!!,flip,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-21T05:32:57.999000+00:00,I flipped my bet. Clearly the GOP cares nothing about winning. Chump 2024 all the way.,flip,flip,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:34:44.848000+00:00,Just heard it from Markey himself!,flip,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:38:14.144000+00:00,McCarthy knows there will be a shutdown and he is just trying desperately not to be blamed. It won't work.,flip,flip,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-09-14T06:22:32.617000+00:00,Why is it so high rn? Please bet no so I can fill my limit orders.,hold,flip,False +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:44:22.965000+00:00,As far as I know in the US you can get ketamine prescribed to take home with zero issues if you can afford the couple th,flip,flip,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T21:55:46.773000+00:00,?? I already said I mistook their tweet about their poll for a new poll… Not sure how that changes the fact that Ann mad,hold,hold,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-11T07:28:20.434000+00:00,"how have polls ""changed their methodology"", exactly? As far as i can tell, the only ""change"" is to hedge towards Trump b",hold,flip,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:19:21.543000+00:00,"Sure, if people perceive their lives as worse, people will change their votes, but there are a few key Trump qualities t",flip,hold,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:07:52.866000+00:00,"I think he was about as electable as Biden, more electable than Hillary. I just think what mainstream media says about e",hold,hold,True +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T17:15:48.334000+00:00,(this was the only option not already posted. Just trying to even out the noise),hold,hold,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T13:44:28.196000+00:00,"Here's their 2022 prediction using the terrible assumption that polling errors are constant. +https://www.realclearpoli",flip,flip,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T07:23:03.278000+00:00,have you seen the early voting in Florida. You’re citing shitty polls. He’s literally up in the PV at RCP who underestim,hold,hold,True +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-03-21T02:15:17.245000+00:00,"The former prez is back on Twitter, +His tweets are sure to make us bitter. +Will he tweet in 2023? +Only time will tell",hold,hold,True +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-06-24T22:43:03.667000+00:00,"Damn.. he’s not gonna tweeeeeeeeeet +Buy NO",hold,flip,False +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-28T10:59:59.459000+00:00,I'm sure Trump will say something to distance himself from the joke. It's not like there's 1 million Puerto Ricans livin,flip,flip,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-27T07:00:44.133000+00:00,You guys should bet it down :D,hold,flip,False +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-08T04:26:08.491000+00:00,Under no circumstances would he find out first from this comment. Especially since it wouldn't bring him to a 90% probab,flip,hold,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-14T18:31:26.618000+00:00,"Edit it has come to my attention that + already made a market that has veeerrryyy similar resolution criteria as the on",flip,hold,False +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-25T17:32:38.016000+00:00,Thanks for the clarification and the peak at your aggregate data. The unaggravated crosstabs estimates of independent su,flip,hold,False +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-19T23:08:47.108000+00:00,"what happens if Elon faxes a prescription for the ketamine. Will ""it's prescription"" end a clearance investigation? W",hold,hold,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-10T13:59:55.418000+00:00,"""In presidential years where Trump is on the ballot"". +You mean in two years. You can't glean a meaningful trend from a ",hold,flip,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T22:20:50.345000+00:00,"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/28/kevin-mccarthy-tom-emmer-government-shutdown-motion-vacate/ +LOL, the",flip,flip,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T16:36:03.045000+00:00,"""have you seen the early voting in Florida"" +Completely in line with Selzer's poll and the first internal. Maybe it come",hold,flip,False +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-05T07:41:40.820000+00:00,"Still buying no, but I am in awe! I want you to prove me wrong.",hold,hold,True +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T03:51:32.491000+00:00,"Even if it doesn't matter to some Trump voters, he needs every voter he had last time (and more) to actually win the ele",flip,flip,True +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-10T06:05:49.178000+00:00,"Given AI's potential impact and increasing societal prominence, it will likely be a major topic in the 2024 presidential",hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T10:31:30.914000+00:00,In a few hours the question won’t be whether there’s going to be a shutdown - it’s how long the shutdown lasts!,hold,flip,False +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T23:22:01.519000+00:00,"Which wasn't that strong, which is why he's out right now. He had to agree to install a Sword of Damocles over his head",flip,flip,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-07T17:19:10.273000+00:00,Tampa could survive a cat 3-4 hurricane with minimal damage to infrastructure. The bigger concern might be flooding in C,flip,hold,False +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:05:00.647000+00:00,Do you think the 8 who voted against him will now just sit and take it? I don't.,flip,flip,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:17:37.834000+00:00,Could be criminal. Disrupting an official proceeding etc.,flip,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:36:19.451000+00:00,it's the end. he just doesn't want to admit it yet.,flip,flip,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:56:47.412000+00:00,follow me on twitter I can DM you theories lol,flip,hold,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:10:56.316000+00:00,"Now THIS is what I call last day of Leagues shenanigans! + please fine Matt Gaetz, I think he's the one buying all the ",flip,hold,False +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T13:01:32.554000+00:00,Trump is gonna lose so this won’t matter. Campaigning from a courtroom is a loser. I am stunned so many of you on here a,hold,flip,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:41:45.425000+00:00,why would he be removed from ballot in Blue states? Who would do that?,hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T19:12:55.081000+00:00,White House signaling support. I think no D senator would cross so would guess that only leaves an R senator to delay fo,hold,flip,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T23:12:09.707000+00:00,"Seems reasonable, but would be helpful if you have some YES and NO examples. +“different facets of concerns” - it has t",hold,hold,True +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-03-03T03:40:02.722000+00:00,"He's sticking to truthsocial, his ego won't allow him to post lol",hold,hold,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-23T19:20:37.051000+00:00,The early vote in FL is a wipeout so far. Looks like Trump by double digits at this point. Could change.,hold,hold,True +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T11:48:27.758000+00:00,if it happened with voluntary disclosure a long time ago it would be odd if it leaked now IMO,hold,hold,True +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:19:34.368000+00:00,this is some shit Kevin Spacey would've pulled in House of Cards LMAO,flip,hold,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-04-10T14:12:03.829000+00:00,"I highly doubt that. Republicans gave up on trying to ban porn a long time ago, and I don't see how AI porn specifically",hold,hold,True +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-25T00:57:52.615000+00:00,I'm expecting this to resolve NO if twitter implodes in 2023?,hold,flip,False +4be8r1648q,2024-10-08T19:48:57.945000+00:00,"CNN issues deadline for Trump and Harris to agree to final 2024 debate ( +msn.com +) +“With less than 30 days to Electio",hold,flip,False +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:18.294000+00:00,"Sorry, I meant ""market dynamics""",flip,hold,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-29T02:57:50.590000+00:00,I think it's nice to make things as unambiguous as possible. The paragraph you quoted doesn't really touch on compound q,hold,hold,True +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-08T22:52:08.234000+00:00,"Trump can't have won in both 2020 and 2024 because of the two-term limit, so logically if he won in one year he can't ha",hold,hold,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T07:04:44.379000+00:00,"oh yea, for sure this is probably polling error, but we're arguing about Trump's margin in Florida here.",hold,hold,True +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T13:37:38.492000+00:00,"This was the RCP 2000 prediction +http://web.archive.org/web/20001212163700/realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral",flip,hold,False +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-25T04:18:53.523000+00:00,"AI is becoming more well-known and powerful, but I don't think that the average person cares about AI enough for it to b",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..07f637189c4ccf10020706adc1ef0c76a030d7ae --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,252 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T16:51:08.392000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"100% agree with you. Can't tweet without twitter. Plus, reading the resolution, it specifically states the account that ",hold,increase,False,True,3343.9839,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-31T12:30:53.160000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"By accident, at least I know I have drinking problem! Please get help!",hold,decrease,False,True,27.9219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:51:25.065000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","imagine if Hunter Biden relapses or overdoses. Or commits suicide. The guy saw his mother, sister and brother all die wh",decrease,hold,False,True,8445.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-01T17:25:15.529000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],I literally don't even care about the details. Trump is leading by 8.5 points in the RCP polling average today. He has b,hold,increase,False,True,10510.0237,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:14.187000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I just put 1500 mana on YES. It is a gamble, but I feel good about it.",flip,increase,False,True,1888.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:55:14.477000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Still has to pass the Senate and be signed by Biden within the next 9 hours for this to resolve to NO,decrease,decrease,True,True,195.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-11T00:21:44.436000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,He will be convicted in DC before Super Tuesday. So really this is just a bet on nobody compelling joining the race.,hold,decrease,False,True,33963.806,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-04-22T20:15:47.178000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"By this logic, since DeSantis is polling at like 30, doesn't he have like a 40% chance as well? I think you have to adju",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T01:43:55.252000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Do you think Trump is seriously trying to win? Like seriously??,hold,decrease,False,True,35433.806,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T18:56:02.908000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,It will take awhile for them to get sick of sounding dumb out of fealty because people keep giving them reason to hope h,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:10:43.271000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,are you ready to resolve it when Joe signs it? Leagues are ending potentially very soon after midnight.,hold,hold,True,True,4342.5068,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T17:05:27.936000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"The last early voting and mail-in numbers posted this morning have a total of 8,281,771 votes in Florida. I'm not sure w",flip,increase,False,True,1472.8998,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-03T23:39:02.793000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Of course I'm at the store while this news breaks!,hold,hold,True,True,54.6926,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:34:44.848000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Just heard it from Markey himself!,flip,increase,False,True,309.8533,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:49:28.653000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Read the regulations on top secret clearance. Musk couldn’t not get hired in the White House for ANY JOB. Period. He cou,increase,increase,True,True,6462.7967,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-27T00:00:27.119000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"great idea to further clarify. I think these are good suggestions. +One other q: what if the moderator asks 2 distinct ",hold,decrease,False,True,2050.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-25T04:18:53.523000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"AI is becoming more well-known and powerful, but I don't think that the average person cares about AI enough for it to b",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:08:32.129000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,all these market fluctuations got me in a spanking mood...,flip,decrease,False,True,18.1059,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:14:26.846000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Just imagining the headlines if there's a technical govt shutdown because ""sleepy Joe"" went to bed early.",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-21T03:39:05.729000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I understand that analysis, but am inherently skeptical of people talking about charisma, etc. as opposed to objective i",increase,hold,False,True,260.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:09:14.417000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I'm considering making some markets that are like ""Will Trump be the Republican nominee? NO MANIPULATION VARIANT - By pa",hold,decrease,False,True,876.35,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:58:05.996000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"""But after the first vote, that's it.""",decrease,hold,False,True,2201.3448,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-07-24T15:18:23.949000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Why are people so bullish about Trump Here? +Predidtit.org + has him about 20 percentage Points lower at 57%",increase,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T20:07:25.252000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Jimmy Carter busts through the ceiling and uses the little-known constitutional loophole that allows a former president ,flip,flip,True,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T00:43:13.771000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I am quite sure that BTE thinks the true probability is way lower than 60%. +That said, I sorta subscribe to your though",decrease,decrease,True,True,1286.1586,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:22:55.629000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,The only thing that makes me nervous about my YES position here is that McCarthy will put the Senate bill on the floor a,decrease,decrease,True,True,291.5758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-07-31T12:46:49.411000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"At least RDS is being called a laser in the headline lol, the others not even that they get",hold,hold,True,True,454.6447,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:19:34.368000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,this is some shit Kevin Spacey would've pulled in House of Cards LMAO,flip,hold,False,True,18.1059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T05:01:55.728000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,McCarthy has specifically asked them to not nominate him.,increase,increase,True,True,4445.9272,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T23:28:28.906000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"overexposed +My position in this market is currently worth 103K with a loan of 93K. My net worth is currently 49K. Huh.",hold,decrease,False,True,107525.3396,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-09-11T16:23:30.888000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Was there ever any remote chance that this would be a normal election cycle?,decrease,increase,False,True,8308.0621,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-09T16:21:47.937000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Kevin is the most pathetic politician of all time.,increase,increase,True,True,54.6926,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-31T12:29:47.559000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Mate your the clown your know for resolving things wrong,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-23T18:36:25.126000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"while Manifold dawdles, actual big boys with money on the line know what's up",hold,increase,False,True,7965.0237,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:03:48.199000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,This was a discussion about extending the close date. I specifically mentioned the first day of voting in the screensho,decrease,hold,False,True,41.4968,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-19T19:27:41.904000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Thanks for sharing. Has this law ever been used to remove or bar someone from a lower office or a political appointee? S,decrease,hold,False,True,22997.6015,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T18:07:00.241000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Could be wrong but I believe you need to be nominated to be able to receive any votes,increase,hold,False,True,527.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:16:45.779000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],lame! I was enjoying the fact that people's decisions would be locked into place lol,decrease,hold,False,True,2550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:37:52.499000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,7 is halfway to what is needed to convict so it is not the strong evidence against me you think it is. The only thing st,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:01:21.207000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"I didn't anticipate how long this would be drawn out in crafting the question, and that's on me.",decrease,decrease,True,True,41.4968,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T07:52:01.646000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"I think the recent debate bought Dems time till the VP debate , however the problem kamala faces atm is she hasn't had t",decrease,flip,False,True,143.9388,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-04-12T23:12:15.187000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"if he keeps up this poling, he has a 85-90% chance of being the nominee!",hold,increase,False,True,5386.3152,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-08-13T15:49:24.932000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,Maybe saw the viral fake tweet,decrease,decrease,True,True,4906.0685,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-05T05:42:57.766000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,the binder of tweets is cracking me up,increase,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T20:43:53.440000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"I would say if the +twitter.com + url is no longer used than there may be debate....or if you go to twitter and it redi",increase,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T05:22:27.773000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"What do you mean, he can be charged guilty and still run??? +https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/06/trump-running-for-",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-04T00:21:43.229000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,When does he need to be nominated by?,decrease,decrease,True,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-04-28T12:58:18.929000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"How would this resolve in the event there are no presidential debates? +(see: +https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/27/",hold,decrease,False,True,90.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:46:37.950000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I'm just startled, is all. And dubious of the GOP's ability to do... frankly much at all, atm.",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:24:22.410000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","you still need to come up with a name, if not Trump. RDS is a uncharismatic pos and tbh, if they move away from Trump, I",hold,increase,False,True,220.8393,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:44:34.962000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,He wasnt nominated. But he still could be.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3331.7263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-11T02:46:01.461000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"the current markets have Trump no less electable than not-Trump, so even if that is a factor I don't know how it plays. ",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:58:35.954000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,what’s with the sudden drop in probability? I can’t find any news of a deal bring made,flip,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-21T01:00:26.905000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"maybe so, but probability is misleading for real life events. It's really just a term to measure confidence. It's not li",hold,hold,True,True,17447.9179,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-26T11:53:36.675000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Votehub, the site linked to that account, currently puts Trump up 7.9%.",decrease,decrease,True,True,1960.5289,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T18:33:46.841000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Florida has a Supervisor of Elections position. Results are not managed by the Secretary of State. They don't have a liv,flip,hold,False,True,1472.8998,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:46:55.578000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Paul has indicated he won't object to this 45 day gambit in the senate without the ukraine aid, but he +will + object (",flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:10:28.624000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I promise you they do not. McCarthy is by far the most rational actor who is actually coming off his career high point d,increase,increase,True,True,2330.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-08T17:27:26.083000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"also, as a general point, everything i say only applies to the mana version of this market. Manifold itself owns, manage",decrease,hold,False,True,5789.5345,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:51.088000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,oh probably your balance is lagging :( anyone else?,increase,hold,False,True,1678.3493,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-10-01T05:52:43.151000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"I see they are selling dollars for 83 cents here +best of luck!",increase,decrease,False,True,333.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:00:05.239000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I think there is definitely a greater than 5% chance of that, yes. I think it's interesting that there's been basically ",flip,hold,False,True,1879.3986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T21:23:42.861000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Wild 24 hours, what happens to Rep. Bowman?",decrease,decrease,True,True,2830.8108,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-09T16:22:03.894000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Very big of him. Yes holders have some hope of him being nommed, not winning, imo.",increase,decrease,False,True,54.6926,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:07:25.036000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",You are making my point for me. The numbers you reference fail to account for how much he should have won by if he had m,decrease,increase,False,True,8345.8908,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T12:56:49.093000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"No offense, but that is an incredibly cliche take. You fail to see how intervening to get someone in federal prison or h",decrease,increase,False,True,21044.9403,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T03:31:45.890000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,There’s also the theoretical possibility that if he is found guilty then he might not be legally allowed to be president,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:57:26.936000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"""In the first round of voting, +House Democratic Caucus + leader +Hakeem Jeffries + of New York received 212 votes, Mc",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:32:55.663000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Also Trump could be prevented from holding federal office if convicted on Espionage Act charges. Any of the 31 in fact. ,decrease,decrease,True,True,8345.8908,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-04-29T01:32:34.772000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),I also think the NO resolution would make the most sense in that case given the current wording,hold,hold,True,True,369.8343,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:19:21.543000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Sure, if people perceive their lives as worse, people will change their votes, but there are a few key Trump qualities t",flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:19:54.586000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I'll explain later. I kinda want to write a whole spiel about this market anyway because it's been weird,flip,decrease,False,True,1367.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-14T18:31:26.618000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Edit it has come to my attention that + already made a market that has veeerrryyy similar resolution criteria as the on",flip,hold,False,True,455.0416,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-08T04:26:08.491000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,Under no circumstances would he find out first from this comment. Especially since it wouldn't bring him to a 90% probab,flip,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-22T03:03:44.217000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Who are the people betting NO on this market but YES on shutdown some time in 2023? They are going to pass a one week CR,increase,decrease,False,True,170.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-13T02:32:10.945000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"To be clear “donald agrees to a debate” and “they have a debate” are two separate propositions, the description and head",hold,hold,True,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:35:41.584000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",You still aren’t addressing why the Republicans will chose essentially a protest candidate because he CANNOT win the gen,decrease,increase,False,True,8345.8908,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-19T17:50:36.023000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Found it: it appears he must be found to have destroyed some of the documents. +https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text",decrease,increase,False,True,22644.9403,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:42:58.877000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"If I was +certain +I would be betting it much further down than this.",increase,decrease,False,True,1740.6606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-29T21:35:12.515000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"I genuinely have no idea what you mean by ""people like me"" here... I'd love the Trump campaign to collapse because of in",hold,hold,True,True,290.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-19T17:40:53.739000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Which currently existing law bars Trump from running again? I understand that he cannot run if convicted under the sedit,hold,decrease,False,True,39.984,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:59:54.845000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"yes there was 15 rounds, but you can cast votes for people who aren't nominated",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:53:57.260000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"in the first round, donalds, banks, zeldin, jordan got votes without a nomination.",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T13:16:06.873000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"the justices will have to reinstate him, or throw out 100 year old unchallenged law. That market resolves YES the moment",decrease,increase,False,True,21044.9403,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-04T12:55:17.019000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Think this market should be trading a bit higher. Only imagine instances like this will increase by the fall. Also with ,increase,increase,True,True,210.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:01:44.357000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"so if McCarthy is nominated in a hypothetical second vote today, market would resolve as YES? Doesn't this go against yo",decrease,flip,False,True,2201.3448,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T19:40:31.710000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,good thing we didn't make this a sweep market,flip,hold,False,True,131.9997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:08:19.786000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Not Trump is the only thing that doesn’t end the party as a legitimate political movement. I was president of the colleg,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:05:31.543000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I think (assuming from the past tense in that tweet) that Gimenenez is referring to the caucus election? Don't think the,decrease,increase,False,True,120.5127,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T18:32:06.378000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,the most likely scenario right now is the judicial branch puts their foot on his throat and never takes it off. At this ,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:44:22.965000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,As far as I know in the US you can get ketamine prescribed to take home with zero issues if you can afford the couple th,flip,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-08T15:31:27.112000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"Man, I really thought trump would win, who knew this military coup would take place",increase,decrease,False,True,350.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:12:36.667000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,At this point their is only dysfunction so it’s impossible to bet against.,increase,hold,False,True,2330.3318,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T22:45:19.181000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"if the market seems overpriced and you have a good explanation (viz. one irrational guy), you should correct the market ",hold,decrease,False,True,107525.3396,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-27T19:44:48.841000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Lol once you make a trade you basically should assume the market will do whatever it wants before you have a chance to r,decrease,hold,False,True,3711.7906,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T21:43:55.419000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Because he isn’t tainted is my whole point. He did the right thing and all the taint (LOL) is on Gaetz, which he seems t",increase,increase,True,True,3100.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:47:25.617000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Republicans not agreeing on their own bill, democrats certainly wont be passing anything they bring at this point. Blame",increase,increase,True,True,410.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T22:21:54.495000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Rs can't leave McCarthy hanging by killing his deal. It is all done but the shouting and recriminations by those of us ,decrease,decrease,True,True,314.9862,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T01:43:59.061000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"This tweet is probably overstating things, but worth considering +https://x.com/quantian1/status/1852852083461935150",increase,decrease,False,True,2375.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:56:24.641000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Need to wait for the election. He could be nominated on a subsequent ballot.,decrease,hold,False,True,41.4968,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T21:58:37.609000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I think aipac has a lot of power (though they aren't perfectly aligned with netanyahu) but also that pretty much any spe,increase,hold,False,True,2545.4639,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:14.247000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I wish I had more mama to buy YES,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:50:27.770000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,AOC was just so smoking hot today,decrease,hold,False,True,314.9862,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:40:33.991000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,The Ayes have it. Bennett didn't want to be the only non-ahole to vote No. I get it.,decrease,hold,False,True,314.9862,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:00:43.848000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,I can't imagine one reason why anyone who previously voted for Biden would change their vote to Trump. I can give a lot ,flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:10.467000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Too bad it's not the 1800s and I can't just walk inside and convince my senator that I have 2000 mana on the line,flip,decrease,False,True,309.8533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T04:20:10.085000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],oh ok fair. I’m just incredulous since every single statistic coming out of Iowa points to Trump winning by a wider marg,hold,increase,False,True,144.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-07-11T00:13:47.298000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,This is an easy one. Everyone thinks Musk is untouchable and the federal government doesn’t have onerous paperwork that ,hold,increase,False,True,860.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:14:17.503000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I think Jamaal Bowman had a YES bet that he really didn't want to lose🤣,flip,hold,False,True,616.788,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T11:55:03.462000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,it can't be done. It's impossible! Sell now before it's too late!!,flip,increase,False,True,120.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-31T10:35:14.982000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Waiting for resolution of NO STILL,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:16:10.111000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Hilary Clinton lost to Barack Obama. Jen Bush lost to Donald Trump. Your theory doesn’t standup to recent historical scr,hold,decrease,False,True,512.0192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:48:00.961000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Trump +9.8 with 76.2% reporting. Outstanding votes are likely to be primarily mail-in/absentee, so it could be close",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:11:43.264000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,It's always wise to bet on the sleepiness of Sleepy Joe,flip,hold,False,True,1806.8052,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:02:59.263000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Normally losing a primary is a pretty good sign that someone is unelectable. Bernie probably would have taken some of Tr,flip,hold,False,True,1203.4442,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-11T06:12:17.890000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],clean up then by betting against all the fools who have this at 35%,hold,increase,False,True,308.6521,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-10-23T02:38:58.341000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I agree with you. However, he practiced the presidency from 2017 till 2021, but he remained himself the first candidate ",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-10-14T21:58:32.146000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,Nobody can tell whether or why the author chose a close date or not unless it's written it in the description. It's a cl,hold,hold,True,True,750.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T02:15:58.635000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"dude, I told you, the Federalist Society is starting to understand that Trump could essentially undo everything they acc",decrease,decrease,True,True,33963.806,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-24T13:18:46.757000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"Good point, I was thinking of this as a nonpartisan question but alot of it does hinge on how to interpret Trump's comme",decrease,decrease,True,True,43257.308,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:18.294000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Sorry, I meant ""market dynamics""",flip,hold,False,True,1402.1435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:58:04.724000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"ok quick question: what the fuck +I do not understand the wiggles.",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:36:17.728000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,It’s incredible to me they are basically shutting the government over Ukraine funding. What assholes. There is no way I ,decrease,flip,False,True,4400.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T22:02:14.466000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"What you're saying is valid, but I'm committed in the comments, as part of the extension of the end date of this market,",hold,decrease,False,True,41.4968,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T03:27:43.147000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Total myth bro. My old boss, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives is currently in federal prison dude. Trump h",hold,increase,False,True,35033.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T16:22:01.639000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"If it isn't Twitter, than he can't Tweet. So I would say NO. +But that is a great question for the Creator to clarify an",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:28:57.673000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",(Trump vs DeSantis is 53.5 vs 33 on Polymarket and 34 vs 43 here. Maybe by the end of the year it will be obvious enough,hold,decrease,False,True,876.35,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-09-29T16:31:28.442000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"you live in +downtown San Francisco + and think you can go +two weeks + without finding out who won? +If you manage to",hold,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-24T10:16:17.175000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,Does this resolve yes if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.,increase,decrease,False,True,164.5874,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-29T02:57:50.590000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),I think it's nice to make things as unambiguous as possible. The paragraph you quoted doesn't really touch on compound q,hold,hold,True,True,229.6043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-04T20:22:15.989000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","The signup flow says: ""I do not reside in, are incorporated in, and do not have a registered office in the United States",increase,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T08:43:34.739000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","desantis is rising, trump falling. 50/50 now is likely to shift hugely to desantis in coming months.",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T23:01:23.155000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,tbf some of the main election market comment threads got pretty close to toxic haha,decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T19:28:28.636000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,I would leave it open until Election Day. Trump famously changes his mind all the time.,increase,hold,False,True,789.8168,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:11:44.258000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"But it's clear that you can vote without nominating: +Members are not required to vote for one of the candidates nominat",decrease,decrease,True,True,98.8996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:32:19.378000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,No way he puts the clean senate bill up,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:58:10.857000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],I got Trump +12 on poly market at like 8% 😭 I don’t want to jinx but he’s at 11 and the panhandle hasn’t been tabulated ,hold,increase,False,True,144.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T16:55:15.192000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"My thinking remains that Scalise, who was Kevin's #2, is the establishment choice which is closest to affirming Kevin's ",hold,increase,False,True,43.9807,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-05-12T14:19:40.344000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"I used Bard to get a baseline: +Here are some of the questions that the moderator asked during the 2020 US presidential ",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:10:26.913000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,If Gaetz wants to be Governor of Florida he will and so will Nancy Mace from Florida with no future if she doesn't help ,increase,decrease,False,True,3100.3318,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-11-30T14:18:03.946000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"No shutdown, Hamas situation, antisemitic controversies. How do you guys see this market unfolding?",hold,hold,True,True,1399.332,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-18T14:09:43.038000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"If Trump goes down enough in the polls that Harris is a strong favorite to win the election, which presumably will take ",increase,increase,True,True,29873.7067,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-04T13:37:40.304000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Did they talk about computers, iPhone, iPad, cloud computing? The only thing close is when al Gore talked about inventin",increase,increase,True,True,105.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-07-10T12:39:50.368000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"People love this orange n*gga, don't surprise me one bit",hold,increase,False,True,214.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T06:57:48.004000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Well as far as I can tell these things are privately conducted. But they leak information. Idk I am starting to regret c,increase,decrease,False,True,18528.3184,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:07:38.111000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"I've risked making the mistake of betting AGAINST GQP dysfunction, which is never a safe bet. As much as a lot of the C",decrease,decrease,True,True,227.6926,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-05-24T15:24:45.909000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"discussion from another thread relevant to the truth deal: +https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/21-will-donald-trump-make-a",hold,hold,True,True,7912.69,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:21:02.906000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Very close indeed. I don't regret my bets. Good market everyone,flip,hold,False,True,1689.77,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T20:55:14.446000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Hunter’s inevitable indictment is going to be the tipping point.,decrease,hold,False,True,8185.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T15:46:14.721000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,limit order up for a few minutes up for grabs first come first serve.,increase,hold,False,True,749.5436,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-08-25T03:31:53.650000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"you've finally made it in the material world with vast hordes of mana, its time to begin the inner journey",decrease,hold,False,True,340.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-04T21:22:30.116000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],there are plenty of limit orders already exceeding your bet. I'll put another 5k at 50%.,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T20:58:31.453000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"do you have evidence, or are you just remembering stuff again? Because that’s not gone well for you so far",hold,decrease,False,True,2975.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:48:51.900000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",I think favorability tells a more relevant story there,hold,decrease,False,True,2081.1913,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:41:54.190000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,You're that certain they're going to pass something last-minute today?,increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:31.898000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,can you do 1500 more at a better price? :),increase,increase,True,True,1678.3493,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T03:51:32.491000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Even if it doesn't matter to some Trump voters, he needs every voter he had last time (and more) to actually win the ele",flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:12:37.849000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,How do you think it should be resolved if Biden signs it at 8am tomorrow morning?,flip,decrease,False,True,95.4814,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:22:12.029000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Michael's Bot ruined that perfect 0%,decrease,decrease,True,True,1974.3732,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:54:26.297000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Israel might have enough sway with 5-10 dems to get them to deal with McCarthy. The world is demanding the kids be out i,increase,increase,True,True,3100.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T22:02:34.982000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"Whatever amount you send I precommit to sending the same amount for him not to tell her, nullifying your impact",increase,increase,True,True,13103.9371,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-07T12:55:16.245000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I remember Anna Nicole Smith was on Howard Stern and she'd never heard of 9-11,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-16T13:06:15.588000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Great summary. If he thinks he might be convicted, he also has the speculative incentive that he could pardon himself. ",hold,increase,False,True,35.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:52:17.526000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I don't understand, shouldn't you guys want to bet yes?",increase,decrease,False,True,2353.2171,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:37:43.982000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"i just felt like lighting some mana on fire, I have too much",flip,decrease,False,True,1532.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:53:41.365000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,it's not over!! call your senators!!,flip,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-10-05T04:28:02.874000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,Noodling on the ham bands seems like a terrible way to avoid politics...,increase,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-06-25T10:13:48.725000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"This answer was totally hallucinated. Presidential debates are usually split into 6 sections nowadays, and the second de",hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T05:47:35.617000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Let’s also not forget that the original qualifications also included being White and Male and landowners.,decrease,hold,False,True,20044.9403,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:17:37.834000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Could be criminal. Disrupting an official proceeding etc.,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:24:58.588000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"the raw vote counts are still rather meaningless, it's the trends that you should be watching",hold,hold,True,True,12410.0237,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-12-17T20:44:34.071000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"https://abcnews.go.com/538/donald-trumps-lead-gop-primary-insurmountable/story?id=105661719 +There is still a chance tha",increase,increase,True,True,3437.5687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:20:15.450000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I think manipulators may well be able to get away with a 5-10% mispricing, which is significant enough to affect bets he",hold,decrease,False,True,876.35,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T18:22:14.859000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,40% of the country used to vote Republican if Trump is the nominee. Only Republicans who truly hate Democrats for their ,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-22T05:05:13.245000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,My bets here are pure arbitrage from when this market was higher than the 2023 shutdown market.,hold,hold,True,True,139.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:07:52.866000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I think he was about as electable as Biden, more electable than Hillary. I just think what mainstream media says about e",hold,hold,True,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-08T23:38:02.588000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Seems like the only way of getting this number is to count the dots but seems like 538 has this at around 32%-36%.,increase,hold,False,True,208.0894,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:23:45.363000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],rabois shoulda taken the bet imo,increase,hold,False,True,6758.382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:40:10.811000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,You have balls of steel. It looks like the new action is going to be in the Motion to Vacate markets. A good reminder ,decrease,decrease,True,True,314.9862,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-10-23T01:53:33.953000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,The only one that could actually be a problem for him winning renomination is legal troubles. Most Republican primary vo,increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-11-04T21:22:44.863000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"You didn't resolve it, you just closed it.",hold,decrease,False,True,23662.5793,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T02:34:43.050000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Can we resolve this now pls? Florida has been called for Trump by 13.5 points with >95% of precincts reported,hold,increase,False,True,2354.8271,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-11-26T01:20:58.080000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),It's pretty standard to refer to former presidents like that actually,hold,hold,True,True,5500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T23:21:52.209000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Most warning labels are there because it’s fun to do the things they warn against.,increase,hold,False,True,9572.7967,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T05:07:16.252000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,The fact that this was ever as low as 30% makes me wish I'd joined Manifold earlier.,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T22:59:58.241000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,If it wasn't for the typo I'd think that was ChatGPT,increase,hold,False,True,425.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:41.730000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,They can call for him to but he won’t. Would be a good response here though…,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-12T00:37:01.891000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,this is the downhill mountain bike obstacle course equivalent of prediction markets; stay frosty,increase,decrease,False,True,50.2802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-11-05T23:26:30.558000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Why has it risen so much over the past month,hold,decrease,False,True,1388.5259,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-12-17T04:13:31.541000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"How does this resolve if there are ""debates"" but it's just Joe because the other guy drops out? Solo debate resolves n/a",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-09T17:12:39.368000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"How the hell is she posting on youtube without seeing any election related content on the website? +I guess you could bo",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-09-11T14:01:54.920000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Such a major topic so far. No doubt.,decrease,flip,False,True,8318.0494,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-07-08T23:23:00.041000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,I have read two lawyers on this topic who specialize in security clearances and they both said an investigation is almos,increase,increase,True,True,140.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-04T03:14:02.815000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"dude, stop. Democracy +44 over economy isn’t even the case in California. The poll is bunk.",hold,flip,False,True,144.4,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T03:14:47.310000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Well I'm on team ""It doesn't matter that much to likely Trump voters""",hold,hold,True,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:46:44.445000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"prescription ketamine is legal federally though and prescription mills, I mean depression treatment centers, seem widesp",flip,decrease,False,True,20.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:12:22.612000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,McCarthy's has not been in this strong a position since he was first elected speaker.,increase,increase,True,True,3100.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:22:06.387000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I could be wrong, but I'm not that nervous about my Yes position at the moment.",decrease,hold,False,True,486.5758,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T23:20:18.696000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"irrational +Your words not mine. It is just a fact that the price is largely driven by your shares, even if you’re right",decrease,decrease,True,True,16692.9384,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T11:05:38.059000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),💯. That’s mainly due to one guy.,decrease,hold,False,True,16826.3026,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:11:32.175000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"common, this is pure cope. They'd never do that. They refused to impeach him even when he made a siege that could have k",decrease,decrease,True,True,1421.2529,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-10T23:30:22.817000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,help me sell out i have loans to pay,decrease,decrease,True,True,7200.4066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-19T16:56:05.998000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,I can make a very strong case for why Trump's best chance of staying out of prison is to be the Vice Presidential nomine,decrease,decrease,True,True,35033.806,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:02:18.283000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,By not taking himself out of the race McCarthy is clearly stoking this outcome himself. Surely he has one loyal lieutena,increase,increase,True,True,2330.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-12-07T14:22:49.966000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),I didn't hear one question mention AI last night. I don't expect a heated debate on AI between Biden and Trump either. I,hold,increase,False,True,3400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T15:07:37.476000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Man you are dumber than I thought.,increase,decrease,False,True,8432.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T05:23:10.340000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Nope. The Espionage act comes with ban from holding federal office for anyone convicted under it.,decrease,increase,False,True,20044.9403,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T21:07:44.816000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"I think language usage needs to be taken into account. If the users are still most commonly referring to tweets, retweet",hold,hold,True,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:38:14.144000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,McCarthy knows there will be a shutdown and he is just trying desperately not to be blamed. It won't work.,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T13:25:07.235000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],in what way are they a right leaning aggregator?? They overestimated Biden in the popular vote and in almost every state,hold,increase,False,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-01T21:05:37.315000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"yup, I’m too conservative (pun unintentional) of an “investor” even with my pretend mana money to go in even bigger on t",increase,increase,True,True,800.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-25T01:46:30.420000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),For context in February 2020 I watched the dem primary debate and they didn’t ask the candidates a single question about,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:29:42.550000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Fortunes being made and lost right now,flip,increase,False,True,2888.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T21:51:50.737000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,would you agree Netanyahu is probably the second most powerful person in America at the moment with no speaker?,increase,hold,False,True,3100.3318,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-21T04:30:11.965000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Fair enough. Just my intuition as a predictor,hold,hold,True,True,482.4473,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:40:14.519000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","LOL, he was the incumbent at a time of global emergency. He should have demolished Biden.",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..52c3af73dde7141551a6cbc0cd243b8630f462fa --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,271 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:21:02.906000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Very close indeed. I don't regret my bets. Good market everyone,flip,hold,False,True,1689.77,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T03:09:00.309000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"This market really volatile lately, I don't get it.",hold,decrease,False,True,120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-21T02:12:48.597000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Sure, that's the idea of prediction markets! I just personally think that it's insane to think that Trump has a greater ",increase,decrease,False,True,260.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:12:43.631000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,He was still president then. Different because he had real power. He does not any more. Candidates are not special or po,decrease,hold,False,True,33963.806,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T04:16:11.430000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"you declined my bet, and then a week later apparently commented you were still down. i didn't see that, because i get ab",hold,hold,True,True,33386.5021,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:54:46.410000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"please resolve this soon, leagues will end soon.",increase,hold,False,True,4342.5068,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:41:54.190000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,You're that certain they're going to pass something last-minute today?,increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-31T01:54:00.565000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Maybe you should smoke less weed,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:34:44.848000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Just heard it from Markey himself!,flip,increase,False,True,309.8533,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T22:21:54.495000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Rs can't leave McCarthy hanging by killing his deal. It is all done but the shouting and recriminations by those of us ,decrease,decrease,True,True,314.9862,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:32:19.378000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,No way he puts the clean senate bill up,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-04T03:27:41.347000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"I thought you were researching that tweet, what's the status on that?",hold,hold,True,True,2975.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-14T18:31:26.618000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Edit it has come to my attention that + already made a market that has veeerrryyy similar resolution criteria as the on",flip,hold,False,True,455.0416,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:53:41.365000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,it's not over!! call your senators!!,flip,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T17:55:15.013000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Somehow one of my comments disappeared but you can see in the article TRUMP GOT CRUSHED. Worst performance for an incumb,hold,increase,False,True,6033.8207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T03:25:19.532000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Are you aware this is actually how the civil war was in fact dealt with after the fact?,hold,hold,True,True,35033.806,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-09T22:41:08.824000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,does this count in conference or on the house floor?,increase,decrease,False,True,177.6816,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-28T02:29:59.666000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"There's no +new +sources of automation job losses besides AI, though. So in context, yes, they +are + equivalent.",decrease,hold,False,True,1010.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-01-05T14:01:20.465000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Not a debate but nothing even close was mentioned even in passing at yesterday’s CNN town hall with Haley and DeSantis. ,hold,decrease,False,True,6425.9045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:08:32.129000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,all these market fluctuations got me in a spanking mood...,flip,decrease,False,True,18.1059,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-26T22:10:53.598000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"On the other hand he might only get mad at that while/after it happens, so possibly.",hold,decrease,False,True,53.4084,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T01:43:59.061000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"This tweet is probably overstating things, but worth considering +https://x.com/quantian1/status/1852852083461935150",increase,decrease,False,True,2375.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:44:34.962000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,He wasnt nominated. But he still could be.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3331.7263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-25T18:29:49.515000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],If you count the Republicans for Harris it’s actually a Harris +1 electorate,hold,flip,False,True,4000.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:56:47.412000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,follow me on twitter I can DM you theories lol,flip,hold,False,True,2131.4798,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-03T07:40:34.845000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,This has nothing to do with scheduling. We are talking about security clearance. You can lose it for having employees te,increase,decrease,False,True,11422.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:19:54.586000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I'll explain later. I kinda want to write a whole spiel about this market anyway because it's been weird,flip,decrease,False,True,1367.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:46:34.925000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"that's not true, several people got votes who weren't nominated during the several rounds of votes in january",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-25T04:25:29.396000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),How does this resolve if there are no presidential debates in 2024?,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:11:43.264000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,It's always wise to bet on the sleepiness of Sleepy Joe,flip,hold,False,True,1806.8052,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:32:53.870000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,It resolves No as it was already open dude,decrease,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T19:49:02.903000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I heard a random guy talking about Kamala doing worse with women outside of my office today. I'm still convinced this is,flip,hold,False,True,149.2889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-12T00:37:01.891000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,this is the downhill mountain bike obstacle course equivalent of prediction markets; stay frosty,increase,decrease,False,True,50.2802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:18.294000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Sorry, I meant ""market dynamics""",flip,hold,False,True,1402.1435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-05-23T23:00:35.199000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"""Mr. Trump’s aides have signaled for months that he plans to return to Twitter sooner rather than later."" +https://twit",decrease,flip,False,True,583.4506,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:20:50.152000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",happy to continue this on discord where the latency issues aren’t such a drag.,decrease,hold,False,True,8445.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:10:24.502000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I appreciate the kind words, the respect and admiration is definitely mutual. Are you on Discord?",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-06T12:49:34.366000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),", I'll echo that I think changing the criteria is generally bad, especially in a 1396-trader market, and I'm surprised y",hold,increase,False,True,10.2459,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T18:32:06.378000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,the most likely scenario right now is the judicial branch puts their foot on his throat and never takes it off. At this ,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T19:16:40.367000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",The presidential election is not a fair fight when there is an incumbent. Trump had a HUGE advantage and he lost convinc,hold,increase,False,True,6033.8207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T11:05:38.059000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),💯. That’s mainly due to one guy.,decrease,hold,False,True,16826.3026,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-14T15:10:13.213000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",When they realize he will be crushed like Barry Goldwater the non-MAGA republicans will drop him so fast. Polls can go f,decrease,decrease,True,True,12735.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:30:14.730000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Youngkin is definitely getting in after Virginia state elections because he is limited to a single term as governor. He ,decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T19:47:12.029000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,Agreed. This is still trading at ~20% on most platforms.,increase,hold,False,True,141.5559,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-25T00:57:52.615000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,I'm expecting this to resolve NO if twitter implodes in 2023?,hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-02T13:29:32.380000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Thanks for the opportunity to buy more shares at a cheaper price!,increase,increase,True,True,2050.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T00:06:03.157000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"It has to be in public, not in conference, which is so secret, staffers can't even go in. Just like the first time, it ",decrease,hold,False,True,64.6926,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:18:17.896000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I hear you though, cynicism is not a bad take these days. I just think there is only about 20 percent of the GOP that wo",hold,increase,False,True,512.0192,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T16:13:09.552000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"If Twitter gets rebranded to something x-ish, how will this market resolve if Trump posts using its successor?",hold,decrease,False,True,236.3008,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:47:50.467000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Why would Schumer allow the bill to advance without Ukraine aid though?,decrease,decrease,True,True,6410.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-06T12:48:34.032000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),definitely do not change the key resolution criteria this far in,hold,hold,True,True,151.3559,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-10-02T03:07:23.264000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I don't think you can do it but you better make my stock pays out,hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:48:26.118000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Of course. They run all elections. When you get signatures to be on the ballot in the primary you turn them into the Sec,decrease,hold,False,True,13169.0371,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-04-30T06:36:19.577000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Huh +Btw the markets are at 55%. Aren't you going to push them up to 70%? I suggest setting up limit orders.",hold,decrease,False,True,23175.358,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T22:02:34.982000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"Whatever amount you send I precommit to sending the same amount for him not to tell her, nullifying your impact",increase,increase,True,True,13103.9371,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-25T12:11:00.039000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,A government shutdown will only make NO even easier.,hold,increase,False,True,2539.1725,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:09:02.450000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"It's fully passed in the senate now, just waiting on the white house.",increase,increase,True,True,4342.5068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T20:07:25.252000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Jimmy Carter busts through the ceiling and uses the little-known constitutional loophole that allows a former president ,flip,flip,True,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-13T01:57:32.238000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,He'll kick and he'll moan but when he sees his numbers slipping he'll debate again.,increase,increase,True,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T01:34:36.813000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,>Joe Biden’s probability of being re-elected against Trump are almost identical to his probability of being alive on Ele,decrease,hold,False,True,452.4473,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:46:37.950000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I'm just startled, is all. And dubious of the GOP's ability to do... frankly much at all, atm.",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T08:43:34.739000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","desantis is rising, trump falling. 50/50 now is likely to shift hugely to desantis in coming months.",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:31.898000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,can you do 1500 more at a better price? :),increase,increase,True,True,1678.3493,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-06T10:26:42.719000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Edit: I am no longer considering this change. Thanks for your feedback. +Note to predictors: I am considering removing t",hold,hold,True,True,229.6043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-04-30T06:40:03.543000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"the UI color and font is different. im not gonna put more money into these markets these i already used 2,200 mana in to",hold,decrease,False,True,37.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-01T14:30:02.535000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"I think when the results are officially in late Tuesday/early Wednesday, this market will in retrospect seem to have bee",increase,increase,True,True,800.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T08:01:42.365000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"determined isn't the issue, the issue is the exact vote totals. If one source has >8 and one has <8 then there's an issu",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-27T13:56:05.039000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,after the Ronin Farrow article this is 100 percent for sure happening.,increase,increase,True,True,3162.7967,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T19:38:16.076000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,McCarthy feigning hope so he dosen't give the appearance of giving up/not trying hard enough. Value here at anything bel,decrease,decrease,True,True,727.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:14.247000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I wish I had more mama to buy YES,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-11-05T15:12:51.995000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Have any GOP candidates said anything interesting about the EO?,increase,hold,False,True,586.6505,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-03T17:02:25.486000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,It’s common sense. When your friends are quoted in the media about being worried about your drug use they have no choice,increase,decrease,False,True,13802.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:15:05.583000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also politics is the only thing I have any formal education in. My bias is with +Publius +.",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-09T01:35:50.680000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,that's understandable. Would you continue to update the market close date if voting continues to be pushed back?,flip,hold,False,True,541.5385,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-10-14T22:01:14.212000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Because there are no other plausible contenders?,decrease,hold,False,True,810.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:25:27.847000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Too bad we can't get a Bennett vote market in time.,decrease,hold,False,True,314.9862,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:14:26.846000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Just imagining the headlines if there's a technical govt shutdown because ""sleepy Joe"" went to bed early.",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-07T11:23:04.417000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"lol. Just Direct Message him on Manifold, maybe they’ll get an email.",hold,hold,True,True,700.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-04T21:17:16.691000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Ben was first and we already have logistics set up from our first bet so he's got first dibs, but we can work something ",increase,hold,False,True,5075.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:01:10.811000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,is this the fabled return of TRAUNCHE?,increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:11:32.175000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"common, this is pure cope. They'd never do that. They refused to impeach him even when he made a siege that could have k",decrease,decrease,True,True,1421.2529,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T13:08:56.733000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I just saw that. I wonder though if it is just him not wanting to look like he is undermining the conference while simul,decrease,decrease,True,True,3695.3318,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:10:56.316000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Now THIS is what I call last day of Leagues shenanigans! + please fine Matt Gaetz, I think he's the one buying all the ",flip,hold,False,True,1631.4798,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:14:17.503000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I think Jamaal Bowman had a YES bet that he really didn't want to lose🤣,flip,hold,False,True,616.788,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:41.730000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,They can call for him to but he won’t. Would be a good response here though…,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:58:45.839000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Would be good to see a manifold poll on who is responsible for the government shutdown. I blame McCarthy. Not Gaetz, not",flip,hold,False,True,388.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-13T20:59:25.203000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"I think the extremely unusual part already happened -- a June and early September debate, circumventing the Commission o",increase,decrease,False,True,21427.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T19:40:31.710000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,good thing we didn't make this a sweep market,flip,hold,False,True,131.9997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T00:09:28.195000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,where is the source of that? if i know its true i wanna bet this baby up even higher,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-01-31T18:27:26.914000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the ques",decrease,decrease,True,True,896.6667,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:19:21.543000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Sure, if people perceive their lives as worse, people will change their votes, but there are a few key Trump qualities t",flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-10-23T01:53:33.953000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,The only one that could actually be a problem for him winning renomination is legal troubles. Most Republican primary vo,increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-24T12:56:52.325000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I have far more real money bet on this than I do mana 😂,hold,decrease,False,True,270.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T07:45:03.159000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"I figure NO since both sides would need to see an upside, simultaneously. +I think Trump knows that if he wants to do be",flip,increase,False,True,235.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:21:21.704000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Made this free-response market!,hold,hold,True,True,0.0598,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:23:45.363000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],rabois shoulda taken the bet imo,increase,hold,False,True,6758.382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:58:05.996000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"""But after the first vote, that's it.""",decrease,hold,False,True,2201.3448,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T06:57:15.109000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I’ll get my mana back somehow (totally not throwing mana into an endless pit),increase,decrease,False,True,1247.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-08T17:27:26.083000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"also, as a general point, everything i say only applies to the mana version of this market. Manifold itself owns, manage",decrease,hold,False,True,5789.5345,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T21:23:42.861000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Wild 24 hours, what happens to Rep. Bowman?",decrease,decrease,True,True,2830.8108,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T16:22:01.639000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"If it isn't Twitter, than he can't Tweet. So I would say NO. +But that is a great question for the Creator to clarify an",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:11:44.258000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"But it's clear that you can vote without nominating: +Members are not required to vote for one of the candidates nominat",decrease,decrease,True,True,98.8996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-30T03:05:00.768000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Voter registration is not a great indicator. Louisiana has more registered Democrats than Republicans.,hold,hold,True,True,597.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:05:00.647000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Do you think the 8 who voted against him will now just sit and take it? I don't.,flip,increase,False,True,43.9807,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:46:55.578000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Paul has indicated he won't object to this 45 day gambit in the senate without the ukraine aid, but he +will + object (",flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T18:33:46.841000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Florida has a Supervisor of Elections position. Results are not managed by the Secretary of State. They don't have a liv,flip,hold,False,True,1472.8998,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:42:58.877000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"If I was +certain +I would be betting it much further down than this.",increase,decrease,False,True,1740.6606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-07T01:38:13.951000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),How does this question resolve if there are no debates? What if “debates” are attempted but only 1 candidate shows up?,increase,decrease,False,True,1050.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T20:09:34.458000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,one trillion dollars and you've got yourself a deal,increase,hold,False,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-24T13:15:24.633000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"Polymarket could be lower because Polymarket leans right compared to Manifold, and so has more people who take Trump at ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-08-13T15:53:10.521000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Incidentally, are you placing those limit orders manually or with a script? I don't see the ""isAPI"" tag on the API resul",decrease,hold,False,True,4906.0685,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:12:22.612000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,McCarthy's has not been in this strong a position since he was first elected speaker.,decrease,increase,False,True,3100.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-22T03:03:44.217000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Who are the people betting NO on this market but YES on shutdown some time in 2023? They are going to pass a one week CR,increase,decrease,False,True,170.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-07-24T15:18:23.949000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Why are people so bullish about Trump Here? +Predidtit.org + has him about 20 percentage Points lower at 57%",increase,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-28T02:28:52.729000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Clarification one seems obviously correct. Clarification two seems to make it too narrow. Current fears about automation,decrease,increase,False,True,1010.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-25T12:45:23.287000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Your counts and your projections seem aspirational. There's very little chance that Trump has a 300k vote lead. Accordin,increase,decrease,False,True,432.5163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:56:50.356000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Calling for votes on the senate stopgap or a clean CR and he will lose the speakership and he knows it. Both would pass ,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T22:39:29.035000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],There are multiple markets betting on Ann Selzer's poll accuracy. It seems like a hotly debated topic. With a 2% error ,increase,increase,True,True,472.8998,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-25T01:46:30.420000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),For context in February 2020 I watched the dem primary debate and they didn’t ask the candidates a single question about,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T00:43:13.771000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I am quite sure that BTE thinks the true probability is way lower than 60%. +That said, I sorta subscribe to your though",decrease,decrease,True,True,1286.1586,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:19:34.368000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,this is some shit Kevin Spacey would've pulled in House of Cards LMAO,flip,hold,False,True,18.1059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-19T17:50:36.023000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Found it: it appears he must be found to have destroyed some of the documents. +https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text",decrease,increase,False,True,22644.9403,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:45:09.656000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Resolve as No technicality is the key! It always is open and his clearance is his bank balance mate!!!,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T03:54:10.112000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Isn’t this 7 minutes from now?,flip,decrease,False,True,2260.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:00:05.239000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I think there is definitely a greater than 5% chance of that, yes. I think it's interesting that there's been basically ",flip,hold,False,True,1879.3986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-03T02:11:26.528000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"It is quite remarkable how close this market is trading to + .",hold,hold,True,True,454.6447,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:38:14.144000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,McCarthy knows there will be a shutdown and he is just trying desperately not to be blamed. It won't work.,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-08T23:36:29.060000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Did you just update the date of market close?,flip,hold,False,True,541.5385,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T03:30:59.593000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I would prefer they Epstein him, or he will Epstein himself, but that would be too anticlimactic.",hold,hold,True,True,35033.806,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:05:10.157000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,It can take another year my dude. The party can absolutely refuse to put Trump on the ticket even if he wins the require,decrease,hold,False,True,33963.806,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:52:12.914000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,The problem with that theory is that it supposes Gaetz will allow himself to get cucked OR the Dems allow themselves to ,flip,decrease,False,True,43.9807,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:47:35.105000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Who did? I can’t remember anyone. Even Trump was nominated.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3281.7263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:31:41.986000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Mate I’m an Aus could not care and I make perfect sense yu can’t open something that is open,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:58:35.954000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,what’s with the sudden drop in probability? I can’t find any news of a deal bring made,flip,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:37:52.499000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,7 is halfway to what is needed to convict so it is not the strong evidence against me you think it is. The only thing st,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-19T22:32:29.976000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,well one of them became chief justice of the supreme court. That's the most prominent I can think of.,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:49:28.653000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Read the regulations on top secret clearance. Musk couldn’t not get hired in the White House for ANY JOB. Period. He cou,increase,increase,True,True,6462.7967,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-22T14:43:28.679000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,So what happens if there's a second debate and Trump no-shows?,hold,decrease,False,True,100.8542,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:55:14.477000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Still has to pass the Senate and be signed by Biden within the next 9 hours for this to resolve to NO,decrease,decrease,True,True,195.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T04:11:42.102000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],you ghosted on our 1:1 bet - you can see it in the screenshot,hold,hold,True,True,12410.0237,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T17:50:53.040000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"In a shocking turn of events, + just won the election. +Unfortunately they couldn't be reached for comment",increase,flip,False,True,439.2509,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T23:24:36.118000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,That makes sense. The one on the bleach bottles is my favourite. I've akways wanted xray vision.,increase,hold,False,True,136.6465,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-08T04:26:08.491000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,Under no circumstances would he find out first from this comment. Especially since it wouldn't bring him to a 90% probab,flip,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:17:37.834000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Could be criminal. Disrupting an official proceeding etc.,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:52:05.021000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Will be interesting to speculate on how this shutdown will end and not just the date when it ends. I'm going to guess it,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T21:01:19.610000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,PREDICTION MARKETS: Way more fun than a coin flip™️,decrease,hold,False,True,300.5377,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T21:47:34.122000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],have you seen the Florida early vote? This bet is looking great for you!,hold,increase,False,True,144.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-31T12:29:47.559000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Mate your the clown your know for resolving things wrong,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-07-11T00:13:47.298000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,This is an easy one. Everyone thinks Musk is untouchable and the federal government doesn’t have onerous paperwork that ,hold,increase,False,True,860.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T19:22:38.117000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"what is the argument for NO, they’re gonna pass a bill in the next 9 hours?",flip,decrease,False,True,560.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-07-27T20:10:18.615000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),That poll finished up with 58.9% No,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T15:07:37.476000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Man you are dumber than I thought.,increase,decrease,False,True,8432.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T11:55:03.462000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,it can't be done. It's impossible! Sell now before it's too late!!,flip,increase,False,True,120.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:50:19.593000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"Exactly why there will be a review!! I am not saying they need to take it away, JUST REVIEW IT!",increase,increase,True,True,6462.7967,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-09-11T22:21:04.077000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),So melodramatic. POTUS will hardly matter and future generations won’t be looking at debate transcripts.,decrease,increase,False,True,7385.6458,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-07-27T19:51:18.917000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Trump has no incentive to debate, and without him they'll be pointless so they won't happen. Similarly, the Democrats ar",hold,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T21:18:14.031000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Why not force 5 Rs to go with a REAL compromise candidate then, instead of tainted Kevin?",flip,flip,True,True,43.9807,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T18:20:45.085000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Frankly, I'm not a good predictor. However, and this does get political (obviously), but I am ""irl hedging"". If trump is",hold,increase,False,True,17447.9179,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:00:43.848000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,I can't imagine one reason why anyone who previously voted for Biden would change their vote to Trump. I can give a lot ,flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-26T19:51:33.004000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"I dont think he would n/a that. If there's no news of an investigation, he would resolve this as no.",hold,hold,True,True,417.5482,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T21:43:55.419000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Because he isn’t tainted is my whole point. He did the right thing and all the taint (LOL) is on Gaetz, which he seems t",decrease,increase,False,True,3100.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-08T23:48:36.671000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Yes, it only seems fair since they are pushing the voting back, or may be.",increase,hold,False,True,54.6926,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T17:05:27.936000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"The last early voting and mail-in numbers posted this morning have a total of 8,281,771 votes in Florida. I'm not sure w",flip,increase,False,True,1472.8998,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-07T17:19:10.273000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Tampa could survive a cat 3-4 hurricane with minimal damage to infrastructure. The bigger concern might be flooding in C,flip,hold,False,True,130.0847,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T01:36:29.935000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Trump will not be president under any circumstances dude. I promise you it’s impossible. I am certain you do not live in,hold,increase,False,True,35433.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-26T23:19:59.696000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Note to predictors: I am considering adding (1) a paragraph clarifying what counts as ""two separate questions directly r",hold,hold,True,True,229.6043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:10:28.624000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I promise you they do not. McCarthy is by far the most rational actor who is actually coming off his career high point d,decrease,increase,False,True,2330.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:26:55.216000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I guess it has passed the Senate, they're currently at 53-4. I'm not sure if it needs a majority or super majority thoug",increase,decrease,False,True,4342.5068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T22:20:50.345000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/28/kevin-mccarthy-tom-emmer-government-shutdown-motion-vacate/ +LOL, the",flip,flip,True,True,388.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:46:44.445000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"prescription ketamine is legal federally though and prescription mills, I mean depression treatment centers, seem widesp",flip,decrease,False,True,20.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T19:30:10.605000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"okay that's funny, and nice try, but i cannot 🤐",increase,increase,True,True,4000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T22:59:58.241000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,If it wasn't for the typo I'd think that was ChatGPT,increase,hold,False,True,425.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T18:03:48.508000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., told reporters that he still wants to support McCarthy as speaker. +""I was going to vote fo",increase,increase,True,True,527.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-19T19:27:41.904000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Thanks for sharing. Has this law ever been used to remove or bar someone from a lower office or a political appointee? S,hold,hold,True,True,22997.6015,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:44:22.965000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,As far as I know in the US you can get ketamine prescribed to take home with zero issues if you can afford the couple th,flip,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:58:04.724000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"ok quick question: what the fuck +I do not understand the wiggles.",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T22:37:44.038000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"We are just at the ""extracting concessions"" stage of voting for Steve Scalise, which should happen tomorrow unless these",hold,increase,False,True,43.9807,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:12:37.849000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,How do you think it should be resolved if Biden signs it at 8am tomorrow morning?,flip,decrease,False,True,95.4814,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T15:53:13.296000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I'd like a mod to verify the camping footage /s,increase,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:59:27.252000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Yes, the market will close today ""has to happen on the first day of voting"". No more extensions. He can still be nomin",decrease,increase,False,True,41.4968,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T22:58:39.338000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,just for the record there’s no need. not taking bribes 🫡,increase,hold,False,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T12:18:11.482000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Other Rs likely less electable since Trump seems likely to mount a desperate third party campaign if he somehow can't wi,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:10.467000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Too bad it's not the 1800s and I can't just walk inside and convince my senator that I have 2000 mana on the line,flip,decrease,False,True,309.8533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-19T22:12:50.575000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Christina Kirchner is out of the jail right now due to being vice president. +(Can Trump legally be the VP? I think the",hold,decrease,False,True,1136.1586,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:39:09.680000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I just regret not selling my YES at 90, like I should have, and rebuying it at 40.",decrease,decrease,True,True,291.5758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:22:55.629000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,The only thing that makes me nervous about my YES position here is that McCarthy will put the Senate bill on the floor a,decrease,decrease,True,True,291.5758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T16:55:15.192000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"My thinking remains that Scalise, who was Kevin's #2, is the establishment choice which is closest to affirming Kevin's ",hold,increase,False,True,43.9807,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-16T07:23:31.237000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Meaning he can’t focus on the business (Truth), he has to focus on being charged as a criminal and trying to be presiden",hold,flip,False,True,22504.69,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:53:57.260000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"in the first round, donalds, banks, zeldin, jordan got votes without a nomination.",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T03:51:32.491000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Even if it doesn't matter to some Trump voters, he needs every voter he had last time (and more) to actually win the ele",flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-09-01T12:25:43.306000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Do you think that'll stop him?,flip,increase,False,True,581.1321,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-01-28T04:43:23.591000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),If it becomes even a minor topic it will become great comedy material.,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-05T05:56:50.674000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"Flipping to Yes, don't let me down.",hold,increase,False,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-21T17:45:07.238000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4892218-kamala-harris-donald-trump-second-debate-invite-cnn/amp/ +This sets the te",hold,decrease,False,True,40589.964,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-11-05T23:26:30.558000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Why has it risen so much over the past month,hold,decrease,False,True,1388.5259,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T04:07:47.383000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Yeah, it seems like Trump's best strategy would be to refuse to attend the debate. It could really only help his opponen",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-04-09T18:33:42.071000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,(Saw it somewhere and the date was not so clear as these manifold embeds that I can't see on my browser. Ah well..),hold,hold,True,True,3890.9246,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T02:25:20.555000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I'm not claiming that the data is useful for election predictions, just that BTE's claim of the GOP losing people overal",decrease,hold,False,True,452.4473,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T23:02:39.264000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I guess the YouTube video updates are the best evidence we have?,decrease,decrease,True,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-23T17:43:12.676000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna172168 +Don't know if this makes a debate more likely-Trump co",increase,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T05:01:55.728000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,McCarthy has specifically asked them to not nominate him.,increase,increase,True,True,4445.9272,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-26T11:53:36.675000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Votehub, the site linked to that account, currently puts Trump up 7.9%.",flip,decrease,False,True,1960.5289,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:14.187000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I just put 1500 mana on YES. It is a gamble, but I feel good about it.",flip,increase,False,True,1888.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T17:46:34.283000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Yup totally fair question, will pre-register a source in a bit! (Don't think it'll impact much for short term betting bu",decrease,hold,False,True,141.5892,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T16:23:28.318000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"We've all blocked them by this point, I'm sure...",hold,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T01:45:50.500000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"70 percent of a much diminished number. In fact, the smaller the GOP gets the larger percentage of it Trump dominates. Y",hold,increase,False,True,35433.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-29T23:48:04.589000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Trump might be the most offensive person to ever run for president. There's a cost to that and we all feel it, even his ",increase,decrease,False,True,1220.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-10-02T12:50:51.428000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,If you believe in yourself I'll believe in you. Good luck!,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-26T01:19:40.714000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,How much more if it must the people see? It is only the content we are craving and not the substance. But substance abus,hold,hold,True,True,600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-19T17:53:39.986000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,And the way it reads I bet it’s interpreted to mean AFTER someone is in office as opposed to before. So it could be used,decrease,hold,False,True,22644.9403,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T18:04:04.222000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,The McCarthy coalition grows stronger...,decrease,increase,False,True,493.7705,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:55:15.415000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,They have no way to stop the shutdown now.,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T17:33:12.682000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,yup lol. Win or lose the community here is not toxic and I like that,decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:34:48.635000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,“McCarthy said House Republicans will meet at 4 p.m. Eastern after the failure of the stopgap measure. “It’s not the end,hold,increase,False,True,2830.8108,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:02:59.263000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Normally losing a primary is a pretty good sign that someone is unelectable. Bernie probably would have taken some of Tr,flip,hold,False,True,1203.4442,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T23:22:01.519000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Which wasn't that strong, which is why he's out right now. He had to agree to install a Sword of Damocles over his head",flip,decrease,False,True,43.9807,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-13T13:59:02.149000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Lol, yes. And I have a feeling this might be just the beginning of the cuckery to come.",decrease,increase,False,True,43.9807,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-10T23:30:22.817000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,help me sell out i have loans to pay,decrease,decrease,True,True,7200.4066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-27T19:44:48.841000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Lol once you make a trade you basically should assume the market will do whatever it wants before you have a chance to r,increase,hold,False,True,3711.7906,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T18:07:00.241000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Could be wrong but I believe you need to be nominated to be able to receive any votes,increase,hold,False,True,527.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-21T13:37:24.902000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"I believe DWAC has until September 27th 2023 to bring Truth Social public or risk liquidation based on regulations. +SPA",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-09T16:21:47.937000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Kevin is the most pathetic politician of all time.,increase,increase,True,True,54.6926,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-12T07:49:15.717000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"From the description: +""Winning by >8 points"" is defined as (Trump votes) / (total votes) - ([other candidate] votes) / ",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:01:21.207000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"I didn't anticipate how long this would be drawn out in crafting the question, and that's on me.",decrease,decrease,True,True,41.4968,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:56:24.641000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Need to wait for the election. He could be nominated on a subsequent ballot.,decrease,hold,False,True,41.4968,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-20T13:29:28.474000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"If he get's indicted on Jan. 6, I will update upwards.",hold,hold,True,True,35.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T03:59:46.101000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Currently Polymarket has 54c in Trump attending the first GOP debate. I think one would say that for the odds to flip, a",hold,decrease,False,True,220.8393,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T18:47:51.929000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Super Tuesday is March. The NY case is 20 days later and the way better federal files case is May. I don't have any idea,hold,increase,False,True,1147.2529,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-10-14T22:25:47.919000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,crazy that this was at ever 25% (i was betting yes back then),hold,increase,False,True,23.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:29:42.550000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Fortunes being made and lost right now,flip,increase,False,True,2888.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-25T18:55:07.130000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"lol, good point. I forgot all about these good folk that Liz Cheney has surely brought into the tent",hold,hold,True,True,8910.0237,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:37:43.982000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"i just felt like lighting some mana on fire, I have too much",flip,decrease,False,True,1532.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T21:19:15.158000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,just to be super clear: if there are no more votes today this resolves no right?,increase,hold,False,True,10685.3339,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-08T13:52:30.471000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"This market resolves based on the spirit of the question, so no matter what legalese is in the description Trump beating",increase,hold,False,True,489.5345,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-01T17:08:03.488000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Havent seen any mail in numbers (if they even post updates in Florida for that), but the early vote is definitely ahead ",increase,increase,True,True,800.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T22:34:37.585000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Manifold itself owns, manages, & resolves the Sweepcash version of this market—nothing I say has any bearing on how they",increase,hold,False,True,432.7804,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b4de21615ceb46fbd1f115e7fbbe9224031a41d9 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,289 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:46:55.578000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Paul has indicated he won't object to this 45 day gambit in the senate without the ukraine aid, but he +will + object (",flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:44:22.965000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,As far as I know in the US you can get ketamine prescribed to take home with zero issues if you can afford the couple th,flip,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-04T21:08:11.282000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Keith Rabois will unfortunately probably chicken out of this bet so I will pick it up on his behalf. Willing to bet up t,increase,increase,True,True,5075.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T23:20:59.509000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,watching movies on K can be an interesting and fun experience. it can make you feel like you're in the movie. i assume b,increase,hold,False,True,136.6465,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-03T02:11:26.528000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"It is quite remarkable how close this market is trading to + .",increase,hold,False,True,454.6447,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:15:05.583000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also politics is the only thing I have any formal education in. My bias is with +Publius +.",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:07:52.866000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I think he was about as electable as Biden, more electable than Hillary. I just think what mainstream media says about e",hold,hold,True,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-08T23:38:02.588000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Seems like the only way of getting this number is to count the dots but seems like 538 has this at around 32%-36%.,increase,hold,False,True,208.0894,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:00:05.239000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I think there is definitely a greater than 5% chance of that, yes. I think it's interesting that there's been basically ",flip,hold,False,True,1879.3986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-12-15T04:11:59.896000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Right before the first republican primary debate (Aug 23), this market was around 32%. Four debates later, with no menti",decrease,flip,False,True,46303.4029,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T17:05:27.936000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"The last early voting and mail-in numbers posted this morning have a total of 8,281,771 votes in Florida. I'm not sure w",flip,increase,False,True,1472.8998,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-07T12:55:16.245000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I remember Anna Nicole Smith was on Howard Stern and she'd never heard of 9-11,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:51:57.674000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"odd, you seem quite certain yet the market is at 44% and you have plenty Mana",increase,decrease,False,True,57.7049,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T19:38:16.076000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,McCarthy feigning hope so he dosen't give the appearance of giving up/not trying hard enough. Value here at anything bel,decrease,decrease,True,True,727.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T08:08:16.237000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"e.g. popular vote total for biden in 2020, the October 2022 FEC report has it as 81,283,501, the CNN results have it as ",increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T17:15:48.334000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,(this was the only option not already posted. Just trying to even out the noise),hold,hold,True,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-06T14:08:55.518000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),I bet YES but sold my position upon seeing this thread. I hadn't realized that the resolution criteria were significantl,hold,flip,False,True,24.4805,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:10.467000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Too bad it's not the 1800s and I can't just walk inside and convince my senator that I have 2000 mana on the line,flip,decrease,False,True,309.8533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-10T13:59:55.418000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"""In presidential years where Trump is on the ballot"". +You mean in two years. You can't glean a meaningful trend from a ",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:22:12.029000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Michael's Bot ruined that perfect 0%,decrease,decrease,True,True,1974.3732,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:16:45.779000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],lame! I was enjoying the fact that people's decisions would be locked into place lol,decrease,hold,False,True,2550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:14.187000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I just put 1500 mana on YES. It is a gamble, but I feel good about it.",flip,increase,False,True,1888.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-19T05:12:52.943000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,Have more faith in the market than that...,hold,increase,False,True,90.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:58:35.954000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,what’s with the sudden drop in probability? I can’t find any news of a deal bring made,flip,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:34:48.635000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,“McCarthy said House Republicans will meet at 4 p.m. Eastern after the failure of the stopgap measure. “It’s not the end,decrease,increase,False,True,2830.8108,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T10:31:30.914000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,In a few hours the question won’t be whether there’s going to be a shutdown - it’s how long the shutdown lasts!,hold,flip,False,True,2.9297,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:14:17.503000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I think Jamaal Bowman had a YES bet that he really didn't want to lose🤣,flip,hold,False,True,616.788,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-07T00:56:05.065000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Predictors, in case you were spooked by my latest comment, I want to update you that I have decided to NOT change the cr",hold,hold,True,True,229.6043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-27T07:00:44.133000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,You guys should bet it down :D,hold,flip,False,True,21276.6621,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-21T02:16:00.336000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I think 85% is reasonable. Yes, lesser known candidates have won before, but Trump is in a very different position than ",decrease,increase,False,True,482.4473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T01:23:02.102000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"I guess it’s easy to say this in hindsight but it always seemed more of a 50-50 +the proposed odds were 50/50! obviously",increase,decrease,False,True,22886.5021,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T21:55:46.773000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],?? I already said I mistook their tweet about their poll for a new poll… Not sure how that changes the fact that Ann mad,hold,decrease,False,True,144.4,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:38:14.144000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,McCarthy knows there will be a shutdown and he is just trying desperately not to be blamed. It won't work.,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-03-21T02:15:17.245000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"The former prez is back on Twitter, +His tweets are sure to make us bitter. +Will he tweet in 2023? +Only time will tell",hold,hold,True,True,7.2326,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:29:42.550000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Fortunes being made and lost right now,flip,increase,False,True,2888.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-02T02:53:42.937000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","https://youtu.be/tllRFIfEJRc +Nice video, people are really behind Trump, really hard to see this changing",increase,increase,True,True,480.248,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-10T19:14:31.772000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Based on a sample size of two, both in very different circumstances from today? Again, polls have changed their methodol",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:02:59.263000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Normally losing a primary is a pretty good sign that someone is unelectable. Bernie probably would have taken some of Tr,flip,hold,False,True,1203.4442,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-12-18T20:26:07.318000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"https://www.natesilver.net/p/nikki-haley-could-be-the-new-john +We’ve reached the point where the nominee being someone ",increase,increase,True,True,4437.5687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-09-14T06:22:32.617000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Why is it so high rn? Please bet no so I can fill my limit orders.,hold,flip,False,True,23181.6621,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-29T02:57:50.590000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),I think it's nice to make things as unambiguous as possible. The paragraph you quoted doesn't really touch on compound q,hold,hold,True,True,229.6043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:54:46.410000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"please resolve this soon, leagues will end soon.",increase,hold,False,True,4342.5068,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:10:11.978000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Bought in a tiny bit in case Biden signs after midnight,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:19:54.586000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I'll explain later. I kinda want to write a whole spiel about this market anyway because it's been weird,flip,decrease,False,True,1367.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-23T14:50:04.631000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"Donald Trump has been “discussing” the pros and cons of another debate with Kamala Harris, notwithstanding his statement",decrease,decrease,True,True,180.978,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:46:34.925000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"that's not true, several people got votes who weren't nominated during the several rounds of votes in january",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-01-31T18:27:26.914000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the ques",decrease,decrease,True,True,896.6667,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-21T05:32:57.999000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",I flipped my bet. Clearly the GOP cares nothing about winning. Chump 2024 all the way.,flip,flip,True,True,6033.8207,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T19:22:38.117000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"what is the argument for NO, they’re gonna pass a bill in the next 9 hours?",decrease,decrease,True,True,560.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-09-30T03:53:27.089000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,Gonna be quite who won based on the celebration or lack of one,increase,increase,True,True,250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T23:12:09.707000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Seems reasonable, but would be helpful if you have some YES and NO examples. +“different facets of concerns” - it has t",hold,decrease,False,True,2800.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:31:41.986000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Mate I’m an Aus could not care and I make perfect sense yu can’t open something that is open,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-03-03T03:40:02.722000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"He's sticking to truthsocial, his ego won't allow him to post lol",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-12-09T16:13:57.009000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"So for now, out of four GOP debates, no one has talked about AI. What’s the rationale for thinking it would be a topic i",hold,hold,True,True,3116.6505,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:41:45.425000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",why would he be removed from ballot in Blue states? Who would do that?,hold,increase,False,True,1079.2106,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T11:05:38.059000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),💯. That’s mainly due to one guy.,decrease,hold,False,True,16826.3026,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T23:18:55.836000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,hmmm.. 🤔🤔🤔not sure if an insult or not...🤔🤔🤔 ....,increase,hold,False,True,136.6465,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-26T21:13:20.284000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"They're a little bit the problem, there's a reason that tweet is newsworthy. They meant to pass some of the appropriatio",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-23T19:23:59.230000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"not strictly true, because I spend >70% of my mana creating questions and boosting my markets. it'd be nice if Manifold ",increase,hold,False,True,7965.0237,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:26:31.870000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"wrong, he wasn't president anymore during his trial. The trial happened in February 2021. Only 7 out of 50 senators vote",decrease,hold,False,True,1421.2529,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-05T05:42:57.766000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,the binder of tweets is cracking me up,increase,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:48:26.118000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Of course. They run all elections. When you get signatures to be on the ballot in the primary you turn them into the Sec,decrease,hold,False,True,13169.0371,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:22:06.387000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I could be wrong, but I'm not that nervous about my Yes position at the moment.",decrease,hold,False,True,486.5758,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:57:26.936000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"""In the first round of voting, +House Democratic Caucus + leader +Hakeem Jeffries + of New York received 212 votes, Mc",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T15:07:37.476000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Man you are dumber than I thought.,increase,decrease,False,True,8432.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-24T10:16:17.175000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,Does this resolve yes if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.,increase,decrease,False,True,164.5874,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-09T22:02:13.440000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"she has comments on the shorts blocked but not comments on other videos. So now I've commented ""trump won"", hoping that",increase,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T22:54:29.303000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"I trust her to resolve it honestly. What I don't know is whether she intends to resolve early if she finds out. If not, ",increase,decrease,False,True,450.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:00:24.481000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"in the future, super useful for that to be in the description lol",increase,hold,False,True,3187.6746,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:14:30.643000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","@BTE + A nice juicy M$10,000 limit order for you if you want it. He whines in every election and every rally, and it doe",hold,increase,False,True,14.2484,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-08T17:27:26.083000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"also, as a general point, everything i say only applies to the mana version of this market. Manifold itself owns, manage",decrease,hold,False,True,5789.5345,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:26:55.216000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I guess it has passed the Senate, they're currently at 53-4. I'm not sure if it needs a majority or super majority thoug",increase,decrease,False,True,4342.5068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:10:56.316000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Now THIS is what I call last day of Leagues shenanigans! + please fine Matt Gaetz, I think he's the one buying all the ",flip,hold,False,True,1631.4798,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:10:24.502000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I appreciate the kind words, the respect and admiration is definitely mutual. Are you on Discord?",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T01:43:59.061000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"This tweet is probably overstating things, but worth considering +https://x.com/quantian1/status/1852852083461935150",increase,decrease,False,True,2375.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-07T01:38:13.951000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),How does this question resolve if there are no debates? What if “debates” are attempted but only 1 candidate shows up?,increase,decrease,False,True,1050.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:46:44.445000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"prescription ketamine is legal federally though and prescription mills, I mean depression treatment centers, seem widesp",flip,decrease,False,True,20.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:00:43.848000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,I can't imagine one reason why anyone who previously voted for Biden would change their vote to Trump. I can give a lot ,flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:30:14.730000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Youngkin is definitely getting in after Virginia state elections because he is limited to a single term as governor. He ,decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-28T02:29:59.666000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"There's no +new +sources of automation job losses besides AI, though. So in context, yes, they +are + equivalent.",decrease,hold,False,True,1010.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T03:50:00.269000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"the FEC reports come out like 2 years after the election, are you saying you think they should wait that long",increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:59:54.845000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"yes there was 15 rounds, but you can cast votes for people who aren't nominated",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T15:00:14.400000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"afaik, nope. They use the probability after all bets in Manifold",hold,flip,False,True,350.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T13:01:32.554000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Trump is gonna lose so this won’t matter. Campaigning from a courtroom is a loser. I am stunned so many of you on here a,hold,increase,False,True,21044.9403,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:55:14.477000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Still has to pass the Senate and be signed by Biden within the next 9 hours for this to resolve to NO,decrease,decrease,True,True,195.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:24:12.866000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I am hearing reports that this has now happened.,flip,flip,True,True,1231.8733,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:37:43.982000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"i just felt like lighting some mana on fire, I have too much",flip,decrease,False,True,1532.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:55:15.415000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,They have no way to stop the shutdown now.,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:32:19.378000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,No way he puts the clean senate bill up,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-07T03:26:28.012000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,He will fail unless he stays away from people the whole time too.,flip,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-25T04:18:53.523000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"AI is becoming more well-known and powerful, but I don't think that the average person cares about AI enough for it to b",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:46:49.473000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,I make all the sense in the world and dollars like Musk buddy,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-04T22:23:07.617000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,is there a reason the probability is so high with this market? Are people expecting some rogue GOP congressman to nomina,hold,decrease,False,True,541.5385,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T13:37:38.492000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"This was the RCP 2000 prediction +http://web.archive.org/web/20001212163700/realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral",flip,hold,False,True,10.039,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:40:10.811000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,You have balls of steel. It looks like the new action is going to be in the Motion to Vacate markets. A good reminder ,decrease,decrease,True,True,314.9862,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-19T23:08:47.108000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"what happens if Elon faxes a prescription for the ketamine. Will ""it's prescription"" end a clearance investigation? W",hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:41:54.190000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,You're that certain they're going to pass something last-minute today?,increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-08T04:26:08.491000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,Under no circumstances would he find out first from this comment. Especially since it wouldn't bring him to a 90% probab,flip,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-04T21:30:57.491000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],there's already more than enough liquidity from limit orders but i'll upgrade this to Plus anyways to smooth things out,decrease,hold,False,True,141.5892,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-04T03:48:56.056000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],don't expect any admission to having missed a detail like that from,decrease,hold,False,True,2975.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:42:58.877000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"If I was +certain +I would be betting it much further down than this.",increase,decrease,False,True,1740.6606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:58:50.769000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,If this vote fails someone else is gonna need to be nominated next round...,decrease,decrease,True,True,3281.7263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:41.730000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,They can call for him to but he won’t. Would be a good response here though…,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-11-04T21:22:44.863000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"You didn't resolve it, you just closed it.",hold,decrease,False,True,23662.5793,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:20:50.152000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",happy to continue this on discord where the latency issues aren’t such a drag.,decrease,hold,False,True,8445.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-02T06:16:27.127000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Recent +interview with trump + (from June 26) scroll to the 14:00 he is asked:: ""...Would you go back to twitter?"" +- ",decrease,decrease,True,True,3254.187,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:47:35.105000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Who did? I can’t remember anyone. Even Trump was nominated.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3281.7263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T16:22:01.639000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"If it isn't Twitter, than he can't Tweet. So I would say NO. +But that is a great question for the Creator to clarify an",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:05:00.647000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Do you think the 8 who voted against him will now just sit and take it? I don't.,flip,increase,False,True,43.9807,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T19:28:28.636000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,I would leave it open until Election Day. Trump famously changes his mind all the time.,increase,hold,False,True,789.8168,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-28T10:59:59.459000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],I'm sure Trump will say something to distance himself from the joke. It's not like there's 1 million Puerto Ricans livin,flip,decrease,False,True,372.9004,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T08:11:25.441000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],if you pick a source beforehand it means there's no ambiguity about what to do if the discrepancy matters for this marke,increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-03T05:42:22.522000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"what's the difference between writing a tweet, vs returning to twitter permanently?",decrease,decrease,True,True,3267.187,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-07-27T19:53:27.474000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),we just don't have the technology...,decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T23:02:39.264000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I guess the YouTube video updates are the best evidence we have?,decrease,decrease,True,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T03:48:06.191000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"different sources have different numbers, that's my point",increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T05:43:53.193000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Honestly I am still thinking about it. I didn’t give enough consideration to the nuance which is why I also created the ,increase,decrease,False,True,18528.3184,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-04-12T21:18:29.210000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"If you only consider the salience of AI in politics currently, this seems overpriced. +But the NO buyers fail to consid",hold,increase,False,True,220.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-23T19:20:37.051000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],The early vote in FL is a wipeout so far. Looks like Trump by double digits at this point. Could change.,hold,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:32:38.759000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Trump is up 31% in the primary polling average and has 52% vote share. He has only gained since indictment news. Even if,increase,increase,True,True,81.1913,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:52:05.021000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Will be interesting to speculate on how this shutdown will end and not just the date when it ends. I'm going to guess it,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T04:01:35.540000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,24 hours from now is the intention I think,decrease,hold,False,True,3580.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-22T13:31:54.648000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"NO because nothing ever happens. +YES because a discharge petition seems the only way this doesn't happen and it is usua",increase,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:08:32.129000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,all these market fluctuations got me in a spanking mood...,flip,decrease,False,True,18.1059,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:47:12.886000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,STOP. IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH BEING ILLEGAL OR NOT.,increase,decrease,False,True,6462.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:07:25.036000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",You are making my point for me. The numbers you reference fail to account for how much he should have won by if he had m,decrease,increase,False,True,8345.8908,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T16:04:38.911000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"look at you, lying like the big boys, congrats on that",hold,hold,True,True,2725.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:58:45.839000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Would be good to see a manifold poll on who is responsible for the government shutdown. I blame McCarthy. Not Gaetz, not",flip,hold,False,True,388.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:12:37.849000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,How do you think it should be resolved if Biden signs it at 8am tomorrow morning?,flip,decrease,False,True,95.4814,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-06T12:48:34.032000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),definitely do not change the key resolution criteria this far in,hold,hold,True,True,151.3559,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:14.247000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I wish I had more mama to buy YES,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:28:18.219000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Seriously resolve this question as an on going investigation into Elon musk is always in place SERIOUSLY ONE AGENCY IS ,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:52:12.914000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,The problem with that theory is that it supposes Gaetz will allow himself to get cucked OR the Dems allow themselves to ,flip,decrease,False,True,43.9807,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-28T02:28:52.729000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Clarification one seems obviously correct. Clarification two seems to make it too narrow. Current fears about automation,decrease,increase,False,True,1010.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T22:20:50.345000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/28/kevin-mccarthy-tom-emmer-government-shutdown-motion-vacate/ +LOL, the",flip,flip,True,True,388.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T01:48:41.474000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Seriously, where do you live? I am curious about your vantage point.",hold,hold,True,True,35433.806,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:23:45.363000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],rabois shoulda taken the bet imo,increase,hold,False,True,6758.382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-09T10:58:18.190000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"I know I definitely didn't have ""Vermont secession under Supreme Senator Sanders"" on my bingo card!",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-10-14T22:01:14.212000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Because there are no other plausible contenders?,decrease,hold,False,True,810.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-07-20T04:19:54.375000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),What if there isn’t a general election debate?,hold,decrease,False,True,299.492,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-07-24T20:02:07.632000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,They have RFKjr at 10% and Newsom at 21% for democratic primaries so go figure. Their predictions are WILD,hold,decrease,False,True,166.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T07:45:03.159000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"I figure NO since both sides would need to see an upside, simultaneously. +I think Trump knows that if he wants to do be",increase,increase,True,True,235.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T17:55:15.013000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Somehow one of my comments disappeared but you can see in the article TRUMP GOT CRUSHED. Worst performance for an incumb,hold,increase,False,True,6033.8207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-21T02:37:01.269000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I think DeSantis might be underrated right now. Sure, he's had a bad media cycle and dropped in the polls, but he used t",increase,decrease,False,True,260.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T18:33:46.841000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Florida has a Supervisor of Elections position. Results are not managed by the Secretary of State. They don't have a liv,flip,hold,False,True,1472.8998,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-24T13:15:24.633000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"Polymarket could be lower because Polymarket leans right compared to Manifold, and so has more people who take Trump at ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T11:55:03.462000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,it can't be done. It's impossible! Sell now before it's too late!!,flip,increase,False,True,120.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T18:32:06.378000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,the most likely scenario right now is the judicial branch puts their foot on his throat and never takes it off. At this ,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:56:47.412000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,follow me on twitter I can DM you theories lol,flip,hold,False,True,2131.4798,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T02:12:16.396000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I don't want to doxx myself. I will say that I do live in the USA though, since someone who looked at when I was online ",decrease,hold,False,True,452.4473,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:12:22.612000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,McCarthy's has not been in this strong a position since he was first elected speaker.,decrease,increase,False,True,3100.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T20:09:34.458000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,one trillion dollars and you've got yourself a deal,increase,hold,False,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T19:40:31.710000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,good thing we didn't make this a sweep market,flip,hold,False,True,131.9997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-06-24T22:43:03.667000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Damn.. he’s not gonna tweeeeeeeeeet +Buy NO",hold,flip,False,True,20759.69,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-26T11:53:36.675000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Votehub, the site linked to that account, currently puts Trump up 7.9%.",flip,decrease,False,True,1960.5289,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-05-24T15:24:08.991000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,Arb markets: Sharing here so you can click them all and easily navigate. This thread + ACX Bot market are the biggest so,increase,hold,False,True,7912.69,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-25T00:57:52.615000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,I'm expecting this to resolve NO if twitter implodes in 2023?,hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T19:49:02.903000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I heard a random guy talking about Kamala doing worse with women outside of my office today. I'm still convinced this is,flip,hold,False,True,149.2889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T00:43:13.771000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I am quite sure that BTE thinks the true probability is way lower than 60%. +That said, I sorta subscribe to your though",decrease,decrease,True,True,1286.1586,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:11:11.063000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",it may come to light that he showed the documents to a foreign National he was engaged in business deals with and all of,decrease,increase,False,True,8345.8908,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T21:18:14.031000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Why not force 5 Rs to go with a REAL compromise candidate then, instead of tainted Kevin?",flip,flip,True,True,43.9807,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-21T02:57:12.448000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"If Trump falls behind by a fair amount, say 4-5 polling average or a solid 2 or 3+ in Wi Mi Pa, and then steps up to cha",increase,increase,True,True,250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-09-01T12:25:43.306000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Do you think that'll stop him?,flip,increase,False,True,581.1321,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-13T13:59:02.149000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Lol, yes. And I have a feeling this might be just the beginning of the cuckery to come.",decrease,increase,False,True,43.9807,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T05:33:18.482000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",I think you're underestimating Trump - or rather how his supporters think of him. He interrupts and uses tactics to get ,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-10T06:05:49.178000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Given AI's potential impact and increasing societal prominence, it will likely be a major topic in the 2024 presidential",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-11T07:28:20.434000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"how have polls ""changed their methodology"", exactly? As far as i can tell, the only ""change"" is to hedge towards Trump b",hold,decrease,False,True,7340.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-25T12:45:23.287000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Your counts and your projections seem aspirational. There's very little chance that Trump has a 300k vote lead. Accordin,flip,decrease,False,True,432.5163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T23:01:23.155000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,tbf some of the main election market comment threads got pretty close to toxic haha,decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-23T19:10:02.744000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],wdym...i am shovelling all my mana into YES to correct the wrongest market on the site,increase,increase,True,True,7965.0237,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:56:50.356000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Calling for votes on the senate stopgap or a clean CR and he will lose the speakership and he knows it. Both would pass ,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:21:02.906000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Very close indeed. I don't regret my bets. Good market everyone,flip,hold,False,True,1689.77,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T00:38:52.201000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,The fuss the made voting him in in the first place was all you needed to know about this market haha,decrease,hold,False,True,727.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-10T13:46:56.395000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"In presidential years where Trump is on the ballot they have overestimated democrats by multiple points, by even larger ",increase,increase,True,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T18:26:47.494000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,you can vote for people who aren't nominated,increase,hold,False,True,3498.5727,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:46:37.950000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I'm just startled, is all. And dubious of the GOP's ability to do... frankly much at all, atm.",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T07:04:44.379000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"oh yea, for sure this is probably polling error, but we're arguing about Trump's margin in Florida here.",hold,hold,True,True,2725.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-11T00:43:30.798000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Yes I do think that. They'd rather run Trump, lose, and claim election fraud, than run someone else and they win. +Not l",hold,increase,False,True,302.4473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T22:58:39.338000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,just for the record there’s no need. not taking bribes 🫡,increase,hold,False,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:11:43.264000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,It's always wise to bet on the sleepiness of Sleepy Joe,flip,hold,False,True,1806.8052,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:34:44.848000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Just heard it from Markey himself!,flip,increase,False,True,309.8533,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-02T23:51:33.376000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,I guess it could be done by the FBI.,increase,decrease,False,True,2252.5001,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:12:17.993000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I don't think the manipulation is a huge concern, because if it is being obviously manipulated then it will be deemed no",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T06:04:47.431000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"@MP what will the crisis involve? A bunch of hysteria and acrimony followed by what, Mass shootings?? Meh, sounds like a",decrease,increase,False,True,35033.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:53:41.365000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,it's not over!! call your senators!!,flip,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:40:33.991000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,The Ayes have it. Bennett didn't want to be the only non-ahole to vote No. I get it.,decrease,hold,False,True,314.9862,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:01:10.811000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,is this the fabled return of TRAUNCHE?,increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-04-30T06:40:03.543000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"the UI color and font is different. im not gonna put more money into these markets these i already used 2,200 mana in to",hold,decrease,False,True,37.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:10:28.624000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I promise you they do not. McCarthy is by far the most rational actor who is actually coming off his career high point d,decrease,increase,False,True,2330.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T11:48:27.758000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,if it happened with voluntary disclosure a long time ago it would be odd if it leaked now IMO,hold,increase,False,True,131.3896,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T19:12:55.081000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,White House signaling support. I think no D senator would cross so would guess that only leaves an R senator to delay fo,hold,decrease,False,True,1786.2524,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-12T00:37:01.891000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,this is the downhill mountain bike obstacle course equivalent of prediction markets; stay frosty,increase,decrease,False,True,50.2802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:19:21.543000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Sure, if people perceive their lives as worse, people will change their votes, but there are a few key Trump qualities t",flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-26T21:25:41.539000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Oh, I guess it was the comment thread immediately below.",increase,hold,False,True,1811.7906,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T13:44:28.196000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Here's their 2022 prediction using the terrible assumption that polling errors are constant. +https://www.realclearpoli",flip,decrease,False,True,10.039,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T03:59:46.101000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Currently Polymarket has 54c in Trump attending the first GOP debate. I think one would say that for the odds to flip, a",hold,decrease,False,True,220.8393,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:58:45.448000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I watched Jordan get nominated at least twice also.,decrease,increase,False,True,3281.7263,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-19T23:20:02.901000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"MJ is illegal for most purposes under federal law. Someone can be prescribed ketamine by a licensed physician, off labe",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-07-24T21:11:23.619000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"It might be difficult for the question to resolve positively even if there was an investigation. If there was, Musk woul",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T07:23:03.278000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],have you seen the early voting in Florida. You’re citing shitty polls. He’s literally up in the PV at RCP who underestim,hold,increase,False,True,144.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-08-10T16:41:48.250000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Looks like the DWAC deal is actually going through—now with super-voting stock! +https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/e",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:39:09.680000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I just regret not selling my YES at 90, like I should have, and rebuying it at 40.",decrease,decrease,True,True,291.5758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-14T18:31:26.618000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Edit it has come to my attention that + already made a market that has veeerrryyy similar resolution criteria as the on",flip,hold,False,True,455.0416,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-25T17:32:38.016000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Thanks for the clarification and the peak at your aggregate data. The unaggravated crosstabs estimates of independent su,flip,decrease,False,True,2932.5163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-09-29T02:44:43.254000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,Where approximately do you live? Do you work from home?,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:17:37.834000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Could be criminal. Disrupting an official proceeding etc.,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T03:51:32.491000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Even if it doesn't matter to some Trump voters, he needs every voter he had last time (and more) to actually win the ele",flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T18:30:00.380000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Okay, Giminez clown mode is my clarification, thank you!",hold,hold,True,True,196.6887,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T02:15:58.635000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"dude, I told you, the Federalist Society is starting to understand that Trump could essentially undo everything they acc",decrease,decrease,True,True,33963.806,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-05T07:41:40.820000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"Still buying no, but I am in awe! I want you to prove me wrong.",hold,increase,False,True,1450.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-23T00:05:28.927000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,What is the sound of one hand clapping,hold,hold,True,True,41238.308,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-08T22:52:08.234000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"Trump can't have won in both 2020 and 2024 because of the two-term limit, so logically if he won in one year he can't ha",hold,decrease,False,True,25.304,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-10T23:30:22.817000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,help me sell out i have loans to pay,decrease,decrease,True,True,7200.4066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:36:19.451000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,it's the end. he just doesn't want to admit it yet.,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:25:27.847000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Too bad we can't get a Bennett vote market in time.,decrease,hold,False,True,314.9862,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-17T13:57:59.275000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"YES - if the moderator asks each candidate one Q about AI but the questions aren't identical, then i think that would qu",hold,hold,True,True,350.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T23:22:01.519000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Which wasn't that strong, which is why he's out right now. He had to agree to install a Sword of Damocles over his head",flip,decrease,False,True,43.9807,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-07T17:19:10.273000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Tampa could survive a cat 3-4 hurricane with minimal damage to infrastructure. The bigger concern might be flooding in C,flip,hold,False,True,130.0847,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:11:44.799000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,You are clearly not hearing me because I am saying I DO GET IT!! That is why it is a terminal cancer and not something t,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:01:44.357000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"so if McCarthy is nominated in a hypothetical second vote today, market would resolve as YES? Doesn't this go against yo",decrease,flip,False,True,2201.3448,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:01:21.207000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"I didn't anticipate how long this would be drawn out in crafting the question, and that's on me.",decrease,decrease,True,True,41.4968,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:42:47.171000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,So is smoking weed in California dude.,increase,decrease,False,True,5362.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T19:47:12.029000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,Agreed. This is still trading at ~20% on most platforms.,increase,hold,False,True,141.5559,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-23T18:36:25.126000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"while Manifold dawdles, actual big boys with money on the line know what's up",increase,increase,True,True,7965.0237,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:31.898000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,can you do 1500 more at a better price? :),increase,increase,True,True,1678.3493,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-04-10T14:12:03.829000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"I highly doubt that. Republicans gave up on trying to ban porn a long time ago, and I don't see how AI porn specifically",hold,hold,True,True,20.56,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T23:19:21.650000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,I believe Ketamine has a warning label that says “DO NOT DESIGN ROCKETS WHILE TAKING THIS MEDICATION”.,increase,hold,False,True,9572.7967,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-04-28T12:58:18.929000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"How would this resolve in the event there are no presidential debates? +(see: +https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/27/",hold,decrease,False,True,90.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T13:25:07.235000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],in what way are they a right leaning aggregator?? They overestimated Biden in the popular vote and in almost every state,hold,increase,False,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:35:41.584000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",You still aren’t addressing why the Republicans will chose essentially a protest candidate because he CANNOT win the gen,decrease,increase,False,True,8345.8908,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-10-08T19:48:57.945000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"CNN issues deadline for Trump and Harris to agree to final 2024 debate ( +msn.com +) +“With less than 30 days to Electio",hold,decrease,False,True,44658.4668,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:19:34.368000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,this is some shit Kevin Spacey would've pulled in House of Cards LMAO,flip,hold,False,True,18.1059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T11:43:38.185000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,It says by the end of 2023. If it had already happened and the news is just slowly leaking out it should resolve YES. It,hold,decrease,False,True,19461.7523,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:58:04.724000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"ok quick question: what the fuck +I do not understand the wiggles.",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:09:02.450000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"It's fully passed in the senate now, just waiting on the white house.",increase,increase,True,True,4342.5068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:18.294000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Sorry, I meant ""market dynamics""",flip,hold,False,True,1402.1435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-01-13T04:58:19.583000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"inb4 gpt-5 comes out in the middle of the election, discussion of AI greatly increases again, and this goes up",increase,increase,True,True,281.5621,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T16:36:03.045000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"""have you seen the early voting in Florida"" +Completely in line with Selzer's poll and the first internal. Maybe it come",hold,flip,False,True,1500.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-10-01T05:52:43.151000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"I see they are selling dollars for 83 cents here +best of luck!",increase,decrease,False,True,333.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a29952fb86c415d945d67f308573b223e3399014 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,281 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:34:44.848000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Just heard it from Markey himself!,flip,increase,False,True,309.8533,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-24T14:51:59.712000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),I like this question. I added M100 in subsidy.,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-04-30T06:08:53.340000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,I believe it's arbitraging a buncha related markets rn,decrease,hold,False,True,1095.1977,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-02-07T15:36:25.867000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/presidential-debates-2024-make-difference/story?id=106767559 +The 2024 presidential race",hold,decrease,False,True,13850.9045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:40:10.811000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,You have balls of steel. It looks like the new action is going to be in the Motion to Vacate markets. A good reminder ,flip,decrease,False,True,314.9862,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:14:06.927000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1708182957624557619 + +> Dem NY Rep Jamaal Bowman pulled fire alarm in Cannon Bu",flip,hold,False,True,6603.2171,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-24T12:56:52.325000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I have far more real money bet on this than I do mana 😂,hold,decrease,False,True,270.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-01-11T11:55:44.386000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),I’m really surprised it hasn’t already turned to YES,hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:46:23.980000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Technically, the government is funded until midnight tonight, so this could never resolve yes. Now THAT is a Rules Cuck",decrease,flip,False,True,314.9862,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-08-13T15:49:24.932000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,Maybe saw the viral fake tweet,decrease,decrease,True,True,4906.0685,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T02:28:41.694000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],all the better for the arb opportunity :),hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:10:28.624000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I promise you they do not. McCarthy is by far the most rational actor who is actually coming off his career high point d,increase,increase,True,True,2330.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:31.898000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,can you do 1500 more at a better price? :),flip,increase,False,True,1678.3493,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-16T13:06:15.588000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Great summary. If he thinks he might be convicted, he also has the speculative incentive that he could pardon himself. ",hold,increase,False,True,35.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-23T14:50:04.631000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"Donald Trump has been “discussing” the pros and cons of another debate with Kamala Harris, notwithstanding his statement",decrease,decrease,True,True,180.978,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:58:05.996000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"""But after the first vote, that's it.""",decrease,hold,False,True,2201.3448,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-04T13:37:40.304000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Did they talk about computers, iPhone, iPad, cloud computing? The only thing close is when al Gore talked about inventin",increase,increase,True,True,105.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-23T17:43:12.676000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna172168 +Don't know if this makes a debate more likely-Trump co",hold,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:39:09.680000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I just regret not selling my YES at 90, like I should have, and rebuying it at 40.",flip,decrease,False,True,291.5758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T22:23:49.655000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"I think I'm done trading in House Speaker markets. Everytime I think the party is going in an actual cohesive direction,",hold,decrease,False,True,408.7927,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-04T00:21:43.229000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,When does he need to be nominated by?,decrease,decrease,True,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-04T22:23:07.617000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,is there a reason the probability is so high with this market? Are people expecting some rogue GOP congressman to nomina,hold,decrease,False,True,541.5385,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:54:46.410000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"please resolve this soon, leagues will end soon.",hold,hold,True,True,4342.5068,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-16T12:18:33.414000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,What is it that he actually does there? i thought he was hands off with the business and someone else actually ran it.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3243.6593,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-10-23T11:20:28.628000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"nah, it's another school assignment. I wonder if their professor tells them to write like ChatGPT or if that's just how ",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T21:19:15.158000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,just to be super clear: if there are no more votes today this resolves no right?,increase,hold,False,True,10685.3339,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-24T13:18:46.757000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"Good point, I was thinking of this as a nonpartisan question but alot of it does hinge on how to interpret Trump's comme",decrease,decrease,True,True,43257.308,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:49:28.653000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Read the regulations on top secret clearance. Musk couldn’t not get hired in the White House for ANY JOB. Period. He cou,increase,increase,True,True,6462.7967,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:51.088000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,oh probably your balance is lagging :( anyone else?,flip,hold,False,True,1678.3493,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T18:03:48.508000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., told reporters that he still wants to support McCarthy as speaker. +""I was going to vote fo",increase,increase,True,True,527.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-19T22:21:16.194000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Can you tell I once gave tours of the Capitol??,hold,hold,True,True,35433.806,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T21:23:48.745000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,i've learned to be very careful regarding resolution criteria on this website,increase,decrease,False,True,10685.3339,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-27T19:44:48.841000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Lol once you make a trade you basically should assume the market will do whatever it wants before you have a chance to r,decrease,hold,False,True,3711.7906,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T18:33:46.841000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Florida has a Supervisor of Elections position. Results are not managed by the Secretary of State. They don't have a liv,flip,hold,False,True,1472.8998,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-10T23:30:22.817000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,help me sell out i have loans to pay,decrease,decrease,True,True,7200.4066,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T07:52:01.646000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"I think the recent debate bought Dems time till the VP debate , however the problem kamala faces atm is she hasn't had t",decrease,flip,False,True,143.9388,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:03:48.199000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,This was a discussion about extending the close date. I specifically mentioned the first day of voting in the screensho,decrease,hold,False,True,41.4968,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:39:07.201000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,The only question left is what this means for DJT's Kevin.,flip,hold,False,True,314.9862,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-11-05T18:17:22.648000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Not recently, but Trump as President had an EO in 2019 ordering federal agencies to invest and prioritize in AI. ""Under ",increase,hold,False,True,70.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-24T12:43:00.445000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"Interesting that the Mana version of this market has tended to trade higher probability than the Sweepscash version, whi",decrease,hold,False,True,43257.308,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:57:26.936000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"""In the first round of voting, +House Democratic Caucus + leader +Hakeem Jeffries + of New York received 212 votes, Mc",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-26T17:41:34.522000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"sure, and if they don't interpret it that way, then not. But this question would have been frequently resolved yes in th",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T20:43:53.440000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"I would say if the +twitter.com + url is no longer used than there may be debate....or if you go to twitter and it redi",increase,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T20:55:14.446000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Hunter’s inevitable indictment is going to be the tipping point.,decrease,hold,False,True,8185.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-09-12T14:43:38.961000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),It’s possible but most of the action is likely to be at the level of policy wonks.,decrease,hold,False,True,7635.6458,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T05:21:30.303000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,All of you who think base rates matter even a little bit here are not thinking through the likely events and instead ass,decrease,increase,False,True,19044.9403,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T22:21:54.495000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Rs can't leave McCarthy hanging by killing his deal. It is all done but the shouting and recriminations by those of us ,decrease,decrease,True,True,314.9862,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T23:18:55.836000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,hmmm.. 🤔🤔🤔not sure if an insult or not...🤔🤔🤔 ....,increase,hold,False,True,136.6465,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:41:54.190000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,You're that certain they're going to pass something last-minute today?,increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:55:32.491000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,only Jeffries and Jordan were nominated. This can be resolved as NO,decrease,increase,False,True,2201.3448,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T20:00:15.619000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"His logic is so funny, I guess that's why when Biden got bodied in the first debate he immediately called for another de",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:46:34.925000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"that's not true, several people got votes who weren't nominated during the several rounds of votes in january",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-07-08T23:23:00.041000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,I have read two lawyers on this topic who specialize in security clearances and they both said an investigation is almos,increase,increase,True,True,140.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T21:43:55.419000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Because he isn’t tainted is my whole point. He did the right thing and all the taint (LOL) is on Gaetz, which he seems t",increase,increase,True,True,3100.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-19T17:50:36.023000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Found it: it appears he must be found to have destroyed some of the documents. +https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text",decrease,increase,False,True,22644.9403,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T00:43:13.771000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I am quite sure that BTE thinks the true probability is way lower than 60%. +That said, I sorta subscribe to your though",decrease,decrease,True,True,1286.1586,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-10T19:14:31.772000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Based on a sample size of two, both in very different circumstances from today? Again, polls have changed their methodol",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:39:16.139000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Trump lost by 0.6% in the tipping-point state in 2020 when Biden was at +6.2 favorability and Trump was at -12.8. Now bo,increase,increase,True,True,81.1913,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:53:57.260000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"in the first round, donalds, banks, zeldin, jordan got votes without a nomination.",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:22:55.629000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,The only thing that makes me nervous about my YES position here is that McCarthy will put the Senate bill on the floor a,flip,decrease,False,True,291.5758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-09T00:40:14.037000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,How long could someone keep being re-elected as president if they only served the first year of each term?,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:17:37.834000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Could be criminal. Disrupting an official proceeding etc.,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:18.294000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Sorry, I meant ""market dynamics""",flip,hold,False,True,1402.1435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-10T13:46:56.395000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"In presidential years where Trump is on the ballot they have overestimated democrats by multiple points, by even larger ",hold,increase,False,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-08-25T03:31:53.650000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"you've finally made it in the material world with vast hordes of mana, its time to begin the inner journey",decrease,hold,False,True,340.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-09-11T22:21:04.077000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),So melodramatic. POTUS will hardly matter and future generations won’t be looking at debate transcripts.,decrease,increase,False,True,7385.6458,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-09-29T02:44:43.254000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,Where approximately do you live? Do you work from home?,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:00:05.239000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I think there is definitely a greater than 5% chance of that, yes. I think it's interesting that there's been basically ",flip,hold,False,True,1879.3986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:46:55.578000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Paul has indicated he won't object to this 45 day gambit in the senate without the ukraine aid, but he +will + object (",flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-03T17:02:25.486000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,It’s common sense. When your friends are quoted in the media about being worried about your drug use they have no choice,increase,decrease,False,True,13802.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:15:05.583000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also politics is the only thing I have any formal education in. My bias is with +Publius +.",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T20:09:34.458000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,one trillion dollars and you've got yourself a deal,increase,hold,False,True,4000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T21:23:42.861000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Wild 24 hours, what happens to Rep. Bowman?",decrease,decrease,True,True,2830.8108,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T02:34:43.050000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Can we resolve this now pls? Florida has been called for Trump by 13.5 points with >95% of precincts reported,hold,increase,False,True,2354.8271,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:01:17.349000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Bibi was born here so I think he is especially capable of getting everyone focused emotionally. He is just gonna send th,increase,hold,False,True,3100.3318,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:01:44.357000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"so if McCarthy is nominated in a hypothetical second vote today, market would resolve as YES? Doesn't this go against yo",decrease,flip,False,True,2201.3448,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T11:05:38.059000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),💯. That’s mainly due to one guy.,decrease,hold,False,True,16826.3026,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-08T23:40:21.127000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,he can absolutely win 3 elections in a row as long as he didn't serve for those 3 terms,hold,hold,True,True,3500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:38:14.144000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,McCarthy knows there will be a shutdown and he is just trying desperately not to be blamed. It won't work.,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:32:19.378000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,No way he puts the clean senate bill up,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:19:54.586000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I'll explain later. I kinda want to write a whole spiel about this market anyway because it's been weird,flip,decrease,False,True,1367.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:48:24.161000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,One thing I am learning in this saga is that Kalshi is the most confusing site on Earth.,flip,decrease,False,True,2353.2171,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T15:21:03.744000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"in a very strange epistemic situation rn! it's fun, i'll post about it in a few days +edit: well, it's strange for me, n",flip,decrease,False,True,365.579,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T19:28:45.104000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"the market can decide, man be random asl",hold,decrease,False,True,0.8824,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-05-23T23:00:35.199000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"""Mr. Trump’s aides have signaled for months that he plans to return to Twitter sooner rather than later."" +https://twit",decrease,flip,False,True,583.4506,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:36:17.728000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,It’s incredible to me they are basically shutting the government over Ukraine funding. What assholes. There is no way I ,decrease,flip,False,True,4400.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:07:25.036000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",You are making my point for me. The numbers you reference fail to account for how much he should have won by if he had m,decrease,increase,False,True,8345.8908,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:04:48.273000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I have heard through the grapevine that there is some extremely disturbing pictures that are being deliberately kept und,increase,decrease,False,True,2545.4639,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T15:07:37.476000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Man you are dumber than I thought.,hold,decrease,False,True,8432.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T02:45:35.210000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),This market is absurdly overpriced. No AI questions were asked in the Republican debates.,increase,increase,True,True,2000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:12:36.667000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,At this point their is only dysfunction so it’s impossible to bet against.,increase,hold,False,True,2330.3318,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T15:46:14.721000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,limit order up for a few minutes up for grabs first come first serve.,flip,hold,False,True,749.5436,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T03:11:55.482000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,I think it's because of people trying to decide whether the new about his classified documents is good or bad for him in,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:44:34.962000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,He wasnt nominated. But he still could be.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3331.7263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:08:32.129000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,all these market fluctuations got me in a spanking mood...,flip,decrease,False,True,18.1059,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:47:50.467000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Why would Schumer allow the bill to advance without Ukraine aid though?,decrease,decrease,True,True,6410.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T04:01:35.540000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,24 hours from now is the intention I think,hold,hold,True,True,3580.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-08-21T15:09:39.098000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Might not bubble up to the debate level, but.. +https://www.marinij.com/2024/08/20/state-lawmakers-eye-promise-pitfall",decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T16:22:01.639000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"If it isn't Twitter, than he can't Tweet. So I would say NO. +But that is a great question for the Creator to clarify an",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:44:22.965000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,As far as I know in the US you can get ketamine prescribed to take home with zero issues if you can afford the couple th,flip,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-10-04T12:51:42.487000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"I think we might get down to around 10% more quickly, level off for a couple of weeks, and then see the last 10% bleed o",hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:45:07.085000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,As of now at least one person is committed to voting for McCarthy and you can only vote for someone who is nominated.,increase,hold,False,True,2681.7263,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:19:21.543000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Sure, if people perceive their lives as worse, people will change their votes, but there are a few key Trump qualities t",flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-31T11:17:37.021000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,I have proven it was already opened before the question was posted therefore the us government where actively already in,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T05:43:53.193000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Honestly I am still thinking about it. I didn’t give enough consideration to the nuance which is why I also created the ,increase,decrease,False,True,18528.3184,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:53:41.365000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,it's not over!! call your senators!!,decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:59:27.252000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Yes, the market will close today ""has to happen on the first day of voting"". No more extensions. He can still be nomin",decrease,increase,False,True,41.4968,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T15:01:09.478000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,FWIW my impression of OP (from meeting IRL a few times) is that she would resolve this honestly.,increase,hold,False,True,550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-12-17T20:44:34.071000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"https://abcnews.go.com/538/donald-trumps-lead-gop-primary-insurmountable/story?id=105661719 +There is still a chance tha",increase,increase,True,True,3437.5687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:27:03.783000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"definitely. I'm still holding out hope for that Rabois ""parlay"" market.",decrease,hold,False,True,2550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:56:24.641000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Need to wait for the election. He could be nominated on a subsequent ballot.,decrease,hold,False,True,41.4968,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-09T16:21:47.937000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Kevin is the most pathetic politician of all time.,increase,increase,True,True,54.6926,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T08:01:42.365000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"determined isn't the issue, the issue is the exact vote totals. If one source has >8 and one has <8 then there's an issu",hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:31:53.304000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Putting the COLA in (not in the Senate version) is a good excuse for the Dems to let it fail.,flip,increase,False,True,291.5758,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-09T16:22:03.894000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Very big of him. Yes holders have some hope of him being nommed, not winning, imo.",increase,decrease,False,True,54.6926,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:22:01.394000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,@adamtreat limit order up if you want to buy more at that price,flip,hold,False,True,1678.3493,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:23:12.339000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Ted Cruz is up next by historical standards.,hold,hold,True,True,512.0192,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:42:34.236000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Secretary of State can do it unilaterally under Section 3 of the 14th amendment,hold,hold,True,True,13169.0371,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:41.730000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,They can call for him to but he won’t. Would be a good response here though…,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T03:44:22.615000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I agree that it's stupid. And that's why he might go to prison, and why he was charged. That's why he won't get away wit",hold,increase,False,True,302.4473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:10.467000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Too bad it's not the 1800s and I can't just walk inside and convince my senator that I have 2000 mana on the line,flip,decrease,False,True,309.8533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:14:17.503000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I think Jamaal Bowman had a YES bet that he really didn't want to lose🤣,flip,hold,False,True,616.788,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-03-27T05:37:50.105000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"If Trump didn't even tweet when he announced on Truth Social that +he thought he was going to get arrested + last week,",hold,increase,False,True,21730.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:52:17.526000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I don't understand, shouldn't you guys want to bet yes?",flip,decrease,False,True,2353.2171,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:26:30.353000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"I think you're reading it wrong - it's beating each other candidate by 8%, not the sum of all other candidates by 8%",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-03-20T16:10:13.213000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"someone propose a pay to comment system, i think it would help in cases like this",hold,hold,True,True,3667.1624,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-31T10:35:14.982000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Waiting for resolution of NO STILL,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-26T01:19:40.714000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,How much more if it must the people see? It is only the content we are craving and not the substance. But substance abus,hold,hold,True,True,600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:38:08.247000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I think that characterization won't stick, but even if it did, UKR aid is still popular, so it's an odd gambit for DJT's",flip,decrease,False,True,291.5758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:51:44.815000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,probably agreement behind closed doors that drove smart money shift,decrease,increase,False,True,8500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:11:43.264000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,It's always wise to bet on the sleepiness of Sleepy Joe,flip,hold,False,True,1806.8052,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-26T21:11:30.321000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"you know the senate was never the problem here, right?",decrease,hold,False,True,485.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T01:23:02.102000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"I guess it’s easy to say this in hindsight but it always seemed more of a 50-50 +the proposed odds were 50/50! obviously",increase,decrease,False,True,22886.5021,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:10:11.978000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Bought in a tiny bit in case Biden signs after midnight,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T21:07:44.816000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"I think language usage needs to be taken into account. If the users are still most commonly referring to tweets, retweet",hold,hold,True,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-07-27T19:49:22.666000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Can you explain why there would be a 40%+ of having no debates?,hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-26T11:53:36.675000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Votehub, the site linked to that account, currently puts Trump up 7.9%.",hold,decrease,False,True,1960.5289,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:07:45.052000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",If Trump couldn’t win as the incumbent BEFORE all the crazy shit he is accused of even happened he has literally no chan,decrease,decrease,True,True,8345.8908,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T11:55:03.462000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,it can't be done. It's impossible! Sell now before it's too late!!,flip,increase,False,True,120.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T06:57:15.109000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I’ll get my mana back somehow (totally not throwing mana into an endless pit),increase,decrease,False,True,1247.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:42:58.877000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"If I was +certain +I would be betting it much further down than this.",flip,decrease,False,True,1740.6606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T18:51:17.720000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I think your only chance would be for him to go to jail BEFORE the trial, because he's messing with evidence or whatever",increase,increase,True,True,1147.2529,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-08T17:27:26.083000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"also, as a general point, everything i say only applies to the mana version of this market. Manifold itself owns, manage",decrease,hold,False,True,5789.5345,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:19:34.368000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,this is some shit Kevin Spacey would've pulled in House of Cards LMAO,flip,hold,False,True,18.1059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-08-13T15:51:54.144000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"That's what brought me here this morning. +""Oh!-Oh! I gotta get on manifold to buy yes1"" +Reads the replies + ""Oh!-Oh! ",decrease,hold,False,True,4906.0685,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-19T22:54:53.597000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,I know you are into puzzles. This might be more like a riddle.,hold,hold,True,True,35433.806,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T20:42:35.975000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,genuinely respect that you’re trying any avenue you can here but there are too many incentives for me in the other direc,increase,increase,True,True,4000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:02:59.263000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Normally losing a primary is a pretty good sign that someone is unelectable. Bernie probably would have taken some of Tr,flip,hold,False,True,1203.4442,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:58:35.954000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,what’s with the sudden drop in probability? I can’t find any news of a deal bring made,flip,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T23:20:59.509000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,watching movies on K can be an interesting and fun experience. it can make you feel like you're in the movie. i assume b,increase,hold,False,True,136.6465,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-06-02T14:48:21.575000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,Do you think Trump will bring this jingle back? I liked it 😂,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T19:40:31.710000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,good thing we didn't make this a sweep market,flip,hold,False,True,131.9997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:21:02.906000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Very close indeed. I don't regret my bets. Good market everyone,flip,hold,False,True,1689.77,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-31T12:29:47.559000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Mate your the clown your know for resolving things wrong,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-04T03:48:56.056000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],don't expect any admission to having missed a detail like that from,hold,hold,True,True,2975.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:10:56.316000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Now THIS is what I call last day of Leagues shenanigans! + please fine Matt Gaetz, I think he's the one buying all the ",increase,hold,False,True,1631.4798,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-05-24T15:19:40.569000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Fom the same thread, and enhances NO if true. But I'm too lazy to fact check: +https://twitter.com/1836_republic/status/",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T22:39:12.006000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"It's true that Ketamine, like other prescribed medications, can be legally obtained. But it's important to remember that",increase,decrease,False,True,136.6465,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T13:08:56.733000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I just saw that. I wonder though if it is just him not wanting to look like he is undermining the conference while simul,decrease,decrease,True,True,3695.3318,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:08:59.867000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Biden, Pelosi, McConnell and Trump being the main leaders.",hold,hold,True,True,33963.806,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-10-23T22:20:42.797000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,It’s a fact that Donald Trump continues as one of the most notable and impactful personalities amidst the GOP. His time ,hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T04:37:01.349000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"a week out in 2020, she released an even poll. This is a similar outlier, obviously…",hold,decrease,False,True,144.4,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-28T02:29:59.666000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"There's no +new +sources of automation job losses besides AI, though. So in context, yes, they +are + equivalent.",decrease,hold,False,True,1010.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-25T12:45:23.287000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Your counts and your projections seem aspirational. There's very little chance that Trump has a 300k vote lead. Accordin,increase,decrease,False,True,432.5163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T03:51:32.491000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Even if it doesn't matter to some Trump voters, he needs every voter he had last time (and more) to actually win the ele",flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-09T04:26:11.147000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"hey here's a short update from + who asked me to post this with this message: +""Do you mind posting this video in the m",increase,hold,False,True,3500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:12:37.849000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,How do you think it should be resolved if Biden signs it at 8am tomorrow morning?,flip,decrease,False,True,95.4814,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:14.247000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I wish I had more mama to buy YES,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T14:55:43.163000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","views are aligned with the recent rally in the Biden market. +Also, to complain about Biden age in 2020 and put Trump in",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T18:47:51.929000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Super Tuesday is March. The NY case is 20 days later and the way better federal files case is May. I don't have any idea,increase,increase,True,True,1147.2529,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-10-10T17:12:58.884000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,I love your work you are doing!,hold,hold,True,True,600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-12T00:37:01.891000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,this is the downhill mountain bike obstacle course equivalent of prediction markets; stay frosty,increase,decrease,False,True,50.2802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-21T14:12:36.411000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Uni of N florida (2.8/3 stars - 538) new poll today: Trump + 10,hold,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-05-10T14:06:18.822000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"He's not a rapist! He is merely a +sexual abuser + who defamed his victim",increase,hold,False,True,455.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:37:43.982000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"i just felt like lighting some mana on fire, I have too much",flip,decrease,False,True,1532.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T16:51:08.392000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"100% agree with you. Can't tweet without twitter. Plus, reading the resolution, it specifically states the account that ",hold,increase,False,True,3343.9839,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T13:01:32.554000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Trump is gonna lose so this won’t matter. Campaigning from a courtroom is a loser. I am stunned so many of you on here a,decrease,increase,False,True,21044.9403,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:50:56.715000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"It ended up at the right result, but man am I puzzled by the timing of when all the markets agreed it was open season. N",flip,decrease,False,True,13817.3149,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:29:42.550000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Fortunes being made and lost right now,flip,increase,False,True,2888.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T18:04:04.222000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,The McCarthy coalition grows stronger...,decrease,increase,False,True,493.7705,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T23:52:40.549000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Looking for it. This isn’t the first time this year ol’ Ann has been very naughty. She had a Trump +18 poll after the fi,hold,hold,True,True,144.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-25T01:46:30.420000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),For context in February 2020 I watched the dem primary debate and they didn’t ask the candidates a single question about,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-13T20:59:25.203000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"I think the extremely unusual part already happened -- a June and early September debate, circumventing the Commission o",increase,decrease,False,True,21427.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:12:22.612000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,McCarthy's has not been in this strong a position since he was first elected speaker.,increase,increase,True,True,3100.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:14:26.846000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Just imagining the headlines if there's a technical govt shutdown because ""sleepy Joe"" went to bed early.",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-05-12T14:19:40.344000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"I used Bard to get a baseline: +Here are some of the questions that the moderator asked during the 2020 US presidential ",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-02T18:26:13.785000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Freedom of information act means it can’t be hidden. It will be disclosed one way or another.,increase,increase,True,True,1612.5001,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-06-09T00:34:55.091000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"true, however, I think Trump is a showman at heart. A WWE Wrestler Politician. it stopped him from reacting in real time",hold,decrease,False,True,340.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-14T18:31:26.618000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Edit it has come to my attention that + already made a market that has veeerrryyy similar resolution criteria as the on",flip,hold,False,True,455.0416,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-07T04:35:00.120000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),I recommend you say somewhere in the resolution criteria on this question and others that you'll rule in favor of the cr,hold,hold,True,True,24.4805,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:20:15.450000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I think manipulators may well be able to get away with a 5-10% mispricing, which is significant enough to affect bets he",hold,decrease,False,True,876.35,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-04-29T01:32:34.772000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),I also think the NO resolution would make the most sense in that case given the current wording,hold,hold,True,True,369.8343,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T02:15:43.461000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,I never said he wants to do the job of being president. But he wants to win the election. There's a difference. I'm sure,hold,hold,True,True,452.4473,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-14T15:10:13.213000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",When they realize he will be crushed like Barry Goldwater the non-MAGA republicans will drop him so fast. Polls can go f,hold,decrease,False,True,12735.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:25:27.847000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Too bad we can't get a Bennett vote market in time.,decrease,hold,False,True,314.9862,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:22:06.387000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I could be wrong, but I'm not that nervous about my Yes position at the moment.",flip,hold,False,True,486.5758,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:00:43.848000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,I can't imagine one reason why anyone who previously voted for Biden would change their vote to Trump. I can give a lot ,flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-13T01:57:32.238000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,He'll kick and he'll moan but when he sees his numbers slipping he'll debate again.,increase,increase,True,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-04-22T20:15:47.178000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"By this logic, since DeSantis is polling at like 30, doesn't he have like a 40% chance as well? I think you have to adju",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T19:22:38.117000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"what is the argument for NO, they’re gonna pass a bill in the next 9 hours?",increase,decrease,False,True,560.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-29T13:34:12.953000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],You're projection hasn't been that far off but this last weekend's totals strongly favored the Republican candidate. Tha,hold,increase,False,True,1220.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:05:31.543000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I think (assuming from the past tense in that tweet) that Gimenenez is referring to the caucus election? Don't think the,decrease,increase,False,True,120.5127,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:01:21.207000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"I didn't anticipate how long this would be drawn out in crafting the question, and that's on me.",decrease,decrease,True,True,41.4968,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:04:24.283000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I don't really see why you think that. A lot of people vote based on the economy, and when it's bad, they blame the curr",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-03-20T17:19:30.141000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Currently, you don't actually have to share a market for it to count towards the quest. You just have to copy the link.",hold,hold,True,True,10.56,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T07:45:03.159000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"I figure NO since both sides would need to see an upside, simultaneously. +I think Trump knows that if he wants to do be",hold,increase,False,True,235.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:26:36.315000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"How tf is there such a big gap between + https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutdown-by-october",flip,decrease,False,True,3076.5865,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-27T13:56:05.039000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,after the Ronin Farrow article this is 100 percent for sure happening.,increase,increase,True,True,3162.7967,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-09-11T14:01:54.920000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Such a major topic so far. No doubt.,decrease,flip,False,True,8318.0494,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:46:44.445000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"prescription ketamine is legal federally though and prescription mills, I mean depression treatment centers, seem widesp",flip,decrease,False,True,20.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:41:39.893000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Rules of the market only require ""Congress"" to pass it. I think this is a done deal at NO.",decrease,flip,False,True,314.9862,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-01-13T04:58:19.583000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"inb4 gpt-5 comes out in the middle of the election, discussion of AI greatly increases again, and this goes up",increase,increase,True,True,281.5621,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-04T20:22:15.989000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","The signup flow says: ""I do not reside in, are incorporated in, and do not have a registered office in the United States",increase,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:40:14.519000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","LOL, he was the incumbent at a time of global emergency. He should have demolished Biden.",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:41:45.425000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",why would he be removed from ballot in Blue states? Who would do that?,hold,increase,False,True,1079.2106,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T06:40:15.664000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Surely it must be NO. How else will this resolve NO? If there is a news story that there is no investigation? That will ,decrease,decrease,True,True,403.9256,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:47:12.886000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,STOP. IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH BEING ILLEGAL OR NOT.,increase,decrease,False,True,6462.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T02:15:58.635000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"dude, I told you, the Federalist Society is starting to understand that Trump could essentially undo everything they acc",decrease,decrease,True,True,33963.806,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T20:02:18.283000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,By not taking himself out of the race McCarthy is clearly stoking this outcome himself. Surely he has one loyal lieutena,increase,increase,True,True,2330.3318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-09-03T17:44:52.018000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Basically, an option market for this market. Funny for those that expect early triggers or are betting on",hold,hold,True,True,930.7985,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-08-20T05:55:05.103000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),also somewhat tangential and a lot broader :],hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T22:49:15.116000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),not that easy - there are large limit orders,hold,hold,True,True,1006.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-11-01T22:31:24.738000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Bettors beware: this market is the old parimutuel market type, which means that the payout that you get is not fixed",hold,hold,True,True,836.6918,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:14.187000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I just put 1500 mana on YES. It is a gamble, but I feel good about it.",flip,increase,False,True,1888.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:11:44.258000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"But it's clear that you can vote without nominating: +Members are not required to vote for one of the candidates nominat",decrease,decrease,True,True,98.8996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:50:27.770000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,AOC was just so smoking hot today,flip,hold,False,True,314.9862,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T22:59:58.241000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,If it wasn't for the typo I'd think that was ChatGPT,increase,hold,False,True,425.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T15:19:16.556000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"but it denies you the opportunity to invest in other markets, and if you have a large position then it can't sell withou",increase,decrease,False,True,4343.5068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T03:54:10.112000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Isn’t this 7 minutes from now?,increase,decrease,False,True,2260.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-05-06T22:04:22.525000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"- +According to +this SEC filing from 27 May, 2022 +, Donald Trump does have a licensing agreement with TMTG to wait 6",hold,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T08:43:34.739000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","desantis is rising, trump falling. 50/50 now is likely to shift hugely to desantis in coming months.",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7c27c5b34bac2fb761d9cf91d325cadcc980153c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,302 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:55:15.415000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,They have no way to stop the shutdown now.,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:20:15.450000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I think manipulators may well be able to get away with a 5-10% mispricing, which is significant enough to affect bets he",decrease,decrease,True,True,876.35,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-23T19:10:02.744000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],wdym...i am shovelling all my mana into YES to correct the wrongest market on the site,increase,increase,True,True,7965.0237,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-01-11T11:52:48.895000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"It seems like they couldn’t stop talking about AI yesterday, right? Seriously, shouldn’t those GOP debates update YES ho",increase,flip,False,True,7350.9045,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T22:59:58.241000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,If it wasn't for the typo I'd think that was ChatGPT,increase,hold,False,True,425.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T12:18:11.482000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Other Rs likely less electable since Trump seems likely to mount a desperate third party campaign if he somehow can't wi,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:41.730000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,They can call for him to but he won’t. Would be a good response here though…,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T17:50:53.040000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"In a shocking turn of events, + just won the election. +Unfortunately they couldn't be reached for comment",increase,flip,False,True,439.2509,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T23:18:55.836000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,hmmm.. 🤔🤔🤔not sure if an insult or not...🤔🤔🤔 ....,increase,hold,False,True,136.6465,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-08T04:26:08.491000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,Under no circumstances would he find out first from this comment. Especially since it wouldn't bring him to a 90% probab,flip,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-11T06:12:17.890000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],clean up then by betting against all the fools who have this at 35%,hold,increase,False,True,308.6521,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-09T14:10:25.387000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"imo, they just think that once they won the election, all these issues become fugazi. Also, your definition of serious p",decrease,hold,False,True,1324.6447,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-26T11:53:36.675000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Votehub, the site linked to that account, currently puts Trump up 7.9%.",flip,decrease,False,True,1960.5289,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T06:37:34.243000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"""THE ACTUAL AGGREGATE"" +🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑 +""AtlAs"" +lmao +""Kamala in shambles, it’s don",hold,decrease,False,True,1500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T22:54:29.303000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"I trust her to resolve it honestly. What I don't know is whether she intends to resolve early if she finds out. If not, ",increase,decrease,False,True,450.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:29:42.550000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Fortunes being made and lost right now,flip,increase,False,True,2888.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:47:35.105000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Who did? I can’t remember anyone. Even Trump was nominated.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3281.7263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-13T13:59:02.149000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Lol, yes. And I have a feeling this might be just the beginning of the cuckery to come.",decrease,increase,False,True,43.9807,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-24T16:04:23.554000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"For the ""love"" of democracy +… presuming that they will center on any issue at all is a non-trivial assumption, that the",hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T07:04:44.379000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"oh yea, for sure this is probably polling error, but we're arguing about Trump's margin in Florida here.",decrease,hold,False,True,2725.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-12-15T04:11:59.896000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Right before the first republican primary debate (Aug 23), this market was around 32%. Four debates later, with no menti",decrease,flip,False,True,46303.4029,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:46:44.445000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"prescription ketamine is legal federally though and prescription mills, I mean depression treatment centers, seem widesp",flip,decrease,False,True,20.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:07:52.866000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I think he was about as electable as Biden, more electable than Hillary. I just think what mainstream media says about e",hold,hold,True,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-25T04:35:58.199000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),In that case it will resolve to N/A.,decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:24:12.866000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I am hearing reports that this has now happened.,flip,flip,True,True,1231.8733,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-10-04T23:18:40.105000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,don’t know how difficult is to get licensed but sounds more plausible,hold,decrease,False,True,700.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:56:50.356000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Calling for votes on the senate stopgap or a clean CR and he will lose the speakership and he knows it. Both would pass ,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T20:00:15.619000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"His logic is so funny, I guess that's why when Biden got bodied in the first debate he immediately called for another de",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-17T08:19:05.410000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also, Ted Cruz could step in any time and would probably beat the crap out of Biden and the other Republicans in the pri",decrease,hold,False,True,10790.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-31T11:17:37.021000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,I have proven it was already opened before the question was posted therefore the us government where actively already in,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T02:28:41.694000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],all the better for the arb opportunity :),increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:02:59.263000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Normally losing a primary is a pretty good sign that someone is unelectable. Bernie probably would have taken some of Tr,flip,hold,False,True,1203.4442,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-06-09T00:34:55.091000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"true, however, I think Trump is a showman at heart. A WWE Wrestler Politician. it stopped him from reacting in real time",hold,decrease,False,True,340.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-09-29T11:10:23.936000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I‘m confident your going to make it!,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T05:46:27.799000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"no reason??? AtlAs, Gallup, Emerson, THE ACTUAL AGGREGATE. Cope! Did you see the Dixville results? You’re so cooked. Kam",hold,increase,False,True,144.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-03-20T15:06:02.550000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),", what does that market have to do with this market?",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-07T03:26:28.012000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,He will fail unless he stays away from people the whole time too.,flip,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:11:43.264000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,It's always wise to bet on the sleepiness of Sleepy Joe,flip,hold,False,True,1806.8052,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:22:06.387000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I could be wrong, but I'm not that nervous about my Yes position at the moment.",decrease,hold,False,True,486.5758,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-21T03:39:05.729000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I understand that analysis, but am inherently skeptical of people talking about charisma, etc. as opposed to objective i",increase,hold,False,True,260.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-22T11:48:27.758000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,if it happened with voluntary disclosure a long time ago it would be odd if it leaked now IMO,hold,increase,False,True,131.3896,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:46:37.950000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I'm just startled, is all. And dubious of the GOP's ability to do... frankly much at all, atm.",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-11T16:47:29.598000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"how have polls ""changed their methodology"", exactly? As far as i can tell, the only ""change"" is to hedge towards Trump b",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:00:05.239000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I think there is definitely a greater than 5% chance of that, yes. I think it's interesting that there's been basically ",flip,hold,False,True,1879.3986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T03:54:10.112000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Isn’t this 7 minutes from now?,decrease,decrease,True,True,2260.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:57:26.936000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"""In the first round of voting, +House Democratic Caucus + leader +Hakeem Jeffries + of New York received 212 votes, Mc",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:19:21.543000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Sure, if people perceive their lives as worse, people will change their votes, but there are a few key Trump qualities t",flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:32:53.870000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,It resolves No as it was already open dude,decrease,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T21:23:48.745000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,i've learned to be very careful regarding resolution criteria on this website,increase,decrease,False,True,10685.3339,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-07-24T20:02:07.632000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,They have RFKjr at 10% and Newsom at 21% for democratic primaries so go figure. Their predictions are WILD,hold,decrease,False,True,166.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:55:43.586000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Good for America? +Yes. +Bad for lot of peeps mana? +Also, yes. +However, 7 units of imaginary currency is the price I'm",hold,decrease,False,True,6.8959,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-19T17:50:36.023000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Found it: it appears he must be found to have destroyed some of the documents. +https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text",hold,increase,False,True,22644.9403,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T23:23:45.689000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Isn’t this already covered by this bit? +Moreover, asking two distinct questions without waiting for the answer to the f",hold,hold,True,True,16692.9384,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-14T15:10:13.213000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",When they realize he will be crushed like Barry Goldwater the non-MAGA republicans will drop him so fast. Polls can go f,decrease,decrease,True,True,12735.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T22:04:48.273000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I have heard through the grapevine that there is some extremely disturbing pictures that are being deliberately kept und,increase,decrease,False,True,2545.4639,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-03-03T03:40:02.722000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"He's sticking to truthsocial, his ego won't allow him to post lol",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T13:11:01.010000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Feel free to bet up this market then: +https://manifold.markets/seaton/will-donald-trump-be-banned-from-ru + +It only ",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-03-22T12:53:53.844000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Plus, discussions in the comments would be heavily discouraged, since each new comment requires more mana.",hold,hold,True,True,20.56,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-07-24T15:18:23.949000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Why are people so bullish about Trump Here? +Predidtit.org + has him about 20 percentage Points lower at 57%",increase,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:08:19.786000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Not Trump is the only thing that doesn’t end the party as a legitimate political movement. I was president of the colleg,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T20:07:25.252000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Jimmy Carter busts through the ceiling and uses the little-known constitutional loophole that allows a former president ,increase,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-03-28T02:45:35.210000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),This market is absurdly overpriced. No AI questions were asked in the Republican debates.,increase,increase,True,True,2000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T22:10:42.966000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"and I asked you then, as now, for any evidence of this tweet. I had not noticed you said you were mistaken! +See! I can ",decrease,hold,False,True,2975.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-11T02:46:01.461000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"the current markets have Trump no less electable than not-Trump, so even if that is a factor I don't know how it plays. ",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-26T21:25:41.539000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Oh, I guess it was the comment thread immediately below.",increase,hold,False,True,1811.7906,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-10T03:17:50.996000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,i’ll just say she really seems to have thought everything through. will let her explain when she resurfaces!,increase,decrease,False,True,4000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T01:23:02.102000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"I guess it’s easy to say this in hindsight but it always seemed more of a 50-50 +the proposed odds were 50/50! obviously",increase,decrease,False,True,22886.5021,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:58:45.448000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,I watched Jordan get nominated at least twice also.,decrease,increase,False,True,3281.7263,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-12-07T13:46:30.255000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Was there any question yesterday?,increase,hold,False,True,2616.6505,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T17:12:37.851000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","People can not go to vote. US has massive problems with people going to vote. Also, it is unclear whether it's an incumb",hold,decrease,False,True,330.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-10T17:27:15.435000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,That’s unfortunate. My bet was based on her original description of her plan.,decrease,decrease,True,True,700.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-03T07:40:34.845000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,This has nothing to do with scheduling. We are talking about security clearance. You can lose it for having employees te,increase,decrease,False,True,11422.7967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:14:17.503000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I think Jamaal Bowman had a YES bet that he really didn't want to lose🤣,flip,hold,False,True,616.788,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T18:32:06.378000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,the most likely scenario right now is the judicial branch puts their foot on his throat and never takes it off. At this ,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-09-01T12:25:43.306000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Do you think that'll stop him?,flip,increase,False,True,581.1321,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-08T23:38:02.588000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Seems like the only way of getting this number is to count the dots but seems like 538 has this at around 32%-36%.,increase,hold,False,True,208.0894,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-05-10T14:06:18.822000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"He's not a rapist! He is merely a +sexual abuser + who defamed his victim",increase,hold,False,True,455.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T21:32:33.980000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"sure, and that’s what the betting is for. But you’re also a liar.",decrease,hold,False,True,2975.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T19:49:02.903000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I heard a random guy talking about Kamala doing worse with women outside of my office today. I'm still convinced this is,flip,hold,False,True,149.2889,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-01T17:08:03.488000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Havent seen any mail in numbers (if they even post updates in Florida for that), but the early vote is definitely ahead ",increase,increase,True,True,800.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-11T01:37:01.950000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"I bet against you that in this hypothetical, he nonetheless is the nominee. 1,000 at 45%",decrease,hold,False,True,1324.6447,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-13T02:01:19.125000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,Please do not resolve this prior to the current close date (Oct 30). TY,increase,hold,False,True,99.9949,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-04-29T02:13:57.636000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),I intend to resolve N/A in that case. I thought I already said this somewhere in the comments but maybe not. I will try ,hold,decrease,False,True,396.673,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:42:34.236000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Secretary of State can do it unilaterally under Section 3 of the 14th amendment,decrease,hold,False,True,13169.0371,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T05:47:35.617000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Let’s also not forget that the original qualifications also included being White and Male and landowners.,hold,hold,True,True,20044.9403,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:36:19.451000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,it's the end. he just doesn't want to admit it yet.,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:53:41.365000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,it's not over!! call your senators!!,flip,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-23T16:22:01.639000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"If it isn't Twitter, than he can't Tweet. So I would say NO. +But that is a great question for the Creator to clarify an",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:37:43.982000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"i just felt like lighting some mana on fire, I have too much",flip,decrease,False,True,1532.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:32:19.378000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,No way he puts the clean senate bill up,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:47:13.234000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I can't imagine the senate would hold this up now,hold,increase,False,True,1786.2524,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:01:44.357000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"so if McCarthy is nominated in a hypothetical second vote today, market would resolve as YES? Doesn't this go against yo",decrease,flip,False,True,2201.3448,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:26:36.315000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"How tf is there such a big gap between + https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutdown-by-october",decrease,decrease,True,True,3076.5865,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:56:47.412000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,follow me on twitter I can DM you theories lol,flip,hold,False,True,2131.4798,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:07:25.036000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",You are making my point for me. The numbers you reference fail to account for how much he should have won by if he had m,decrease,increase,False,True,8345.8908,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T19:55:28.074000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,It’s definitely not 90 or more. Much too far out to say that,increase,hold,False,True,260.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-24T10:24:06.617000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"it should, the description outlines that it is only the account that matters, not trump.",hold,hold,True,True,244.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T17:05:27.936000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"The last early voting and mail-in numbers posted this morning have a total of 8,281,771 votes in Florida. I'm not sure w",flip,increase,False,True,1472.8998,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-02T06:16:27.127000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Recent +interview with trump + (from June 26) scroll to the 14:00 he is asked:: ""...Would you go back to twitter?"" +- ",decrease,decrease,True,True,3254.187,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-17T08:15:38.313000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Another factor to consider is Trump is going to be very unlikely to be able to delay ANY of the cases against him becaus,decrease,decrease,True,True,10590.8908,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-03T00:50:49.783000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,His last clearance review was made public so we’ll see.,increase,decrease,False,True,2252.5001,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:19:54.586000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I'll explain later. I kinda want to write a whole spiel about this market anyway because it's been weird,flip,decrease,False,True,1367.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T14:31:25.795000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"I toyed around with the swingometer a bit. If even the internals Trump leaked are right, R+5 in Iowa, it becomes +very ",hold,decrease,False,True,1500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-09T16:22:03.894000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Very big of him. Yes holders have some hope of him being nommed, not winning, imo.",hold,decrease,False,True,54.6926,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:58:05.996000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"""But after the first vote, that's it.""",decrease,hold,False,True,2201.3448,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T03:58:22.837000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Yeah, but this market is about the Republican nomination. I don't think Republicans are going to care much about which c",hold,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:13:56.758000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney and McConnell are serious people and they see what’s coming too. They matter just as much as Tr,decrease,decrease,True,True,33963.806,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T22:39:29.035000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],There are multiple markets betting on Ann Selzer's poll accuracy. It seems like a hotly debated topic. With a 2% error ,flip,increase,False,True,472.8998,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T18:26:47.494000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,you can vote for people who aren't nominated,increase,hold,False,True,3498.5727,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-08-10T16:41:48.250000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Looks like the DWAC deal is actually going through—now with super-voting stock! +https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/e",flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-07T01:38:13.951000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),How does this question resolve if there are no debates? What if “debates” are attempted but only 1 candidate shows up?,increase,decrease,False,True,1050.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-11T11:55:03.462000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,it can't be done. It's impossible! Sell now before it's too late!!,flip,increase,False,True,120.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T00:26:30.353000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"I think you're reading it wrong - it's beating each other candidate by 8%, not the sum of all other candidates by 8%",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:58:04.724000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"ok quick question: what the fuck +I do not understand the wiggles.",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:10:43.271000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,are you ready to resolve it when Joe signs it? Leagues are ending potentially very soon after midnight.,increase,hold,False,True,4342.5068,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:40:10.811000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,You have balls of steel. It looks like the new action is going to be in the Motion to Vacate markets. A good reminder ,decrease,decrease,True,True,314.9862,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-21T02:57:12.448000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"If Trump falls behind by a fair amount, say 4-5 polling average or a solid 2 or 3+ in Wi Mi Pa, and then steps up to cha",increase,increase,True,True,250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T23:22:01.519000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Which wasn't that strong, which is why he's out right now. He had to agree to install a Sword of Damocles over his head",decrease,decrease,True,True,43.9807,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-11-09T21:06:43.805000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"E.g. I think if attention on AI increases the same amount between Nov 23 and Oct 24 as it did between Dec 22 and Nov 23,",increase,increase,True,True,394.6393,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:23:12.339000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Ted Cruz is up next by historical standards.,decrease,hold,False,True,512.0192,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T21:58:45.839000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Would be good to see a manifold poll on who is responsible for the government shutdown. I blame McCarthy. Not Gaetz, not",flip,hold,False,True,388.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-11T18:34:52.101000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Why would they want a repeat of last time is what I keep coming back to. They got a pound of flesh from Kevin. There's,decrease,decrease,True,True,43.9807,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:13:03.737000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Not gonna argue this any more because I don't think you understand that they won't do more than what they usually do, wh",increase,increase,True,True,302.4473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-26T00:50:06.937000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,it will resolve NO only after 2023 has passed and @realdonaldtrump hasn't tweeted,hold,hold,True,True,39.6874,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T20:55:14.446000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Hunter’s inevitable indictment is going to be the tipping point.,decrease,hold,False,True,8185.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T22:34:37.585000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Manifold itself owns, manages, & resolves the Sweepcash version of this market—nothing I say has any bearing on how they",increase,hold,False,True,432.7804,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-06-09T00:36:34.070000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,I agree with you completely about the WWE Wrestler mentality. That is exactly how I think about him.,hold,hold,True,True,4296.4879,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:38:14.144000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,McCarthy knows there will be a shutdown and he is just trying desperately not to be blamed. It won't work.,flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T04:00:43.848000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,I can't imagine one reason why anyone who previously voted for Biden would change their vote to Trump. I can give a lot ,flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T03:51:32.491000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Even if it doesn't matter to some Trump voters, he needs every voter he had last time (and more) to actually win the ele",flip,increase,False,True,1203.4442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:46:23.980000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Technically, the government is funded until midnight tonight, so this could never resolve yes. Now THAT is a Rules Cuck",decrease,flip,False,True,314.9862,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:18.294000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Sorry, I meant ""market dynamics""",flip,hold,False,True,1402.1435,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-28T02:29:59.666000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"There's no +new +sources of automation job losses besides AI, though. So in context, yes, they +are + equivalent.",decrease,hold,False,True,1010.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:33:14.247000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,I wish I had more mama to buy YES,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T08:08:16.237000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"e.g. popular vote total for biden in 2020, the October 2022 FEC report has it as 81,283,501, the CNN results have it as ",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-30T13:34:58.813000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Okay you are trying to say as I type this there is no agency already investigating it??,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:01:10.811000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,is this the fabled return of TRAUNCHE?,increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-04-29T01:32:34.772000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),I also think the NO resolution would make the most sense in that case given the current wording,decrease,hold,False,True,369.8343,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-03T05:42:22.522000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"what's the difference between writing a tweet, vs returning to twitter permanently?",decrease,decrease,True,True,3267.187,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-04-09T18:33:42.071000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,(Saw it somewhere and the date was not so clear as these manifold embeds that I can't see on my browser. Ah well..),hold,hold,True,True,3890.9246,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-11-10T15:49:45.326000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"There are 3 debates with set topics, but not specific questions. Blockchain was not mentioned (lol). I don't believe AI ",hold,increase,False,True,41.1433,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2024-11-04T20:56:55.414000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"I think that would be fair. I'd prefer if another mod do it, because I'm obviously a bit biased with my 50k No shares. ",hold,decrease,False,True,23662.5793,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-12T00:37:01.891000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,this is the downhill mountain bike obstacle course equivalent of prediction markets; stay frosty,increase,decrease,False,True,50.2802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-21T13:37:24.902000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"I believe DWAC has until September 27th 2023 to bring Truth Social public or risk liquidation based on regulations. +SPA",flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-30T03:05:00.768000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Voter registration is not a great indicator. Louisiana has more registered Democrats than Republicans.,increase,hold,False,True,597.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:58:35.954000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,what’s with the sudden drop in probability? I can’t find any news of a deal bring made,flip,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T16:58:50.769000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,If this vote fails someone else is gonna need to be nominated next round...,decrease,decrease,True,True,3281.7263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T13:37:38.492000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"This was the RCP 2000 prediction +http://web.archive.org/web/20001212163700/realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral",flip,hold,False,True,10.039,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-28T10:59:59.459000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],I'm sure Trump will say something to distance himself from the joke. It's not like there's 1 million Puerto Ricans livin,flip,decrease,False,True,372.9004,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:37:52.499000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,7 is halfway to what is needed to convict so it is not the strong evidence against me you think it is. The only thing st,decrease,increase,False,True,33963.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T03:48:06.191000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"different sources have different numbers, that's my point",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-18T05:21:30.303000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,All of you who think base rates matter even a little bit here are not thinking through the likely events and instead ass,increase,increase,True,True,19044.9403,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-21T05:32:57.999000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",I flipped my bet. Clearly the GOP cares nothing about winning. Chump 2024 all the way.,flip,flip,True,True,6033.8207,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T16:42:58.877000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"If I was +certain +I would be betting it much further down than this.",increase,decrease,False,True,1740.6606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:24:22.410000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","you still need to come up with a name, if not Trump. RDS is a uncharismatic pos and tbh, if they move away from Trump, I",hold,increase,False,True,220.8393,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T18:52:05.021000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Will be interesting to speculate on how this shutdown will end and not just the date when it ends. I'm going to guess it,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-11-06T23:03:00.693000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"Oh, and here's a second similar market, but which only refers to the max # of questions in a single debate: +This one sh",hold,hold,True,True,6882.847,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:08:32.129000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,all these market fluctuations got me in a spanking mood...,flip,decrease,False,True,18.1059,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-04T22:23:07.617000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,is there a reason the probability is so high with this market? Are people expecting some rogue GOP congressman to nomina,hold,decrease,False,True,541.5385,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-11T02:58:39.050000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Half is enough for him to win the nomination. (really it's more like 60% but it doesn't matter either way).,hold,increase,False,True,302.4473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-24T23:56:21.611000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Yep. I didn't mention AGI anywhere in the question.,decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-29T22:20:50.345000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/28/kevin-mccarthy-tom-emmer-government-shutdown-motion-vacate/ +LOL, the",flip,flip,True,True,388.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-13T17:58:37.290000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,Surprised how much value people are putting on words coming out of Trump's mouth. At any point he decides a debate would,increase,increase,True,True,250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T10:41:07.367000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Rabois stay winning +Nate ""No Signal"" Silver in the toilets",hold,increase,False,True,750.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T01:26:53.889000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,I'll update the description but this resolves yes if there is a second KamalaVDonald debate.,decrease,hold,False,True,144.7826,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-14T18:31:26.618000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Edit it has come to my attention that + already made a market that has veeerrryyy similar resolution criteria as the on",flip,hold,False,True,455.0416,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-25T12:45:23.287000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Your counts and your projections seem aspirational. There's very little chance that Trump has a 300k vote lead. Accordin,flip,decrease,False,True,432.5163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-20T13:29:28.474000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"If he get's indicted on Jan. 6, I will update upwards.",hold,hold,True,True,35.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-06-26T14:13:32.597000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Have you noticed how horrible Trump has looked in his appearances since the last indictment. He has aged 5 years and he ,hold,decrease,False,True,29975.9084,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T06:08:32.433000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,Pretty sure they are already off it.,flip,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:01:21.207000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"I didn't anticipate how long this would be drawn out in crafting the question, and that's on me.",decrease,decrease,True,True,41.4968,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-11-09T20:53:18.448000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"It's probably true that people here are overrating how much AI is on everyone's minds because of bubble effects, but I t",increase,decrease,False,True,344.6393,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-25T17:32:38.016000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Thanks for the clarification and the peak at your aggregate data. The unaggravated crosstabs estimates of independent su,flip,decrease,False,True,2932.5163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-07-27T19:49:22.666000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Can you explain why there would be a 40%+ of having no debates?,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-06T06:57:15.109000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I’ll get my mana back somehow (totally not throwing mana into an endless pit),increase,decrease,False,True,1247.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-19T12:42:14.995000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Let me look at the news reports of the first review of his clearance. I don’t think it was ever confirmed but it also wa,hold,decrease,False,True,21597.4783,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T03:26:27.510000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Yes, it's quite poetic, but seriously, I doubt they'll risk it. If you think the rules apply equally to everyone, that i",increase,decrease,False,True,302.4473,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:34:44.848000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Just heard it from Markey himself!,flip,increase,False,True,309.8533,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-08-10T16:09:49.781000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,Does the case against Trump increase the chance that he will use TwitterX to reach more supporters? I find it likely. (b,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T04:53:57.260000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"in the first round, donalds, banks, zeldin, jordan got votes without a nomination.",increase,hold,False,True,4445.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:49:28.653000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,Read the regulations on top secret clearance. Musk couldn’t not get hired in the White House for ANY JOB. Period. He cou,increase,increase,True,True,6462.7967,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-05-12T01:16:46.130000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"Same market, 3% better odds if you are a YES bettor, sell here and buy there.. +https://manifold.markets/CP/will-donald",flip,flip,True,True,242.3513,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-09T13:44:28.196000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Here's their 2022 prediction using the terrible assumption that polling errors are constant. +https://www.realclearpoli",flip,decrease,False,True,10.039,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-06-25T21:17:24.955000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Once again proving that asking AI for an answer and then blindly accepting it is the fastest way to be misled. It would,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T03:21:02.906000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Very close indeed. I don't regret my bets. Good market everyone,flip,hold,False,True,1689.77,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-10-01T05:52:43.151000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,"I see they are selling dollars for 83 cents here +best of luck!",increase,decrease,False,True,333.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T03:50:00.269000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"the FEC reports come out like 2 years after the election, are you saying you think they should wait that long",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-23T17:43:12.676000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna172168 +Don't know if this makes a debate more likely-Trump co",decrease,decrease,True,True,750.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-06-26T01:20:00.942000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Maybe it's unfair and you genuinely expected a good result. But I also don't take this site super seriously so I'm will,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:51:44.815000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,probably agreement behind closed doors that drove smart money shift,decrease,increase,False,True,8500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-04-30T06:31:03.681000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"thats not the original source, it doesnt match up with the tweet, it just reports similar information",hold,decrease,False,True,37.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-12-07T14:23:44.140000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)," +I wouldn't call the opioid epidemic a distraction.",increase,decrease,False,True,2616.6505,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-20T01:47:17.349000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,I think he wants his supporters to pay his legal bills. That is all he is thinking about. Self preservation. Do you actu,hold,increase,False,True,35433.806,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-19T22:54:03.106000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,wait did you just ping me because I make crossword/sudoku-style puzzles,increase,hold,False,True,260.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:17:37.834000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Could be criminal. Disrupting an official proceeding etc.,flip,decrease,False,True,388.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T01:12:37.849000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,How do you think it should be resolved if Biden signs it at 8am tomorrow morning?,flip,decrease,False,True,95.4814,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T14:39:45.122000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","2020 was a close election, and Biden's biggest albatross (his oldness) has only gotten worse since then. Why are you so ",hold,decrease,False,True,672.2392,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-08-03T00:48:36.960000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,"It would be the Defense Security Service, and I very much doubt you could use FOIA to get info on an ongoing investigati",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-08T23:36:29.060000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,Did you just update the date of market close?,decrease,hold,False,True,541.5385,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-09-03T01:03:01.963000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,Easy money to be made on this market of mine - let me know if people would be keen for a version based on this market:,hold,increase,False,True,97.5612,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-17T17:40:37.604000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"He received votes, so resolve YES?",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-01-25T04:18:53.523000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"AI is becoming more well-known and powerful, but I don't think that the average person cares about AI enough for it to b",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:10:56.316000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Now THIS is what I call last day of Leagues shenanigans! + please fine Matt Gaetz, I think he's the one buying all the ",flip,hold,False,True,1631.4798,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:15:05.583000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also politics is the only thing I have any formal education in. My bias is with +Publius +.",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T17:46:55.578000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"Paul has indicated he won't object to this 45 day gambit in the senate without the ukraine aid, but he +will + object (",flip,increase,False,True,388.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4be8r1648q,2024-09-12T19:28:45.104000+00:00,Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?,"the market can decide, man be random asl",hold,decrease,False,True,0.8824,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:23:10.467000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,Too bad it's not the 1800s and I can't just walk inside and convince my senator that I have 2000 mana on the line,flip,decrease,False,True,309.8533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:19:34.368000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,this is some shit Kevin Spacey would've pulled in House of Cards LMAO,flip,hold,False,True,18.1059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-10-01T00:40:33.991000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,The Ayes have it. Bennett didn't want to be the only non-ahole to vote No. I get it.,decrease,hold,False,True,314.9862,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-04T21:17:16.691000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Ben was first and we already have logistics set up from our first bet so he's got first dibs, but we can work something ",increase,hold,False,True,5075.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-01-26T11:35:05.469000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"This corroborates th +e claim in the article, +and seems consistent with a trump campaign that's beginning to kick into",hold,increase,False,True,390.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T16:36:03.045000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"""have you seen the early voting in Florida"" +Completely in line with Selzer's poll and the first internal. Maybe it come",hold,flip,False,True,1500.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-10-01T03:01:05.319000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,I just don't see OP avoiding all the little things without behaving incredibly weirdly.,hold,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:14.187000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,"I just put 1500 mana on YES. It is a gamble, but I feel good about it.",flip,increase,False,True,1888.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-01T15:44:22.965000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,As far as I know in the US you can get ketamine prescribed to take home with zero issues if you can afford the couple th,flip,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-06T02:34:43.050000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Can we resolve this now pls? Florida has been called for Trump by 13.5 points with >95% of precincts reported,hold,increase,False,True,2354.8271,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:51:25.065000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","imagine if Hunter Biden relapses or overdoses. Or commits suicide. The guy saw his mother, sister and brother all die wh",decrease,hold,False,True,8445.8908,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T22:27:20.107000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],I don’t see a problem with waiting till December for the final totals if it’s close. There’s going to be just one offici,flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-07-27T19:58:12.001000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),"The Commission on Presidential Debates do 3 debates every cycle. The only time they did not have 3 was 2020, they did 2,",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-03T21:30:34.245000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"she releases many polls, you made a 2020 one up, I called you out, you’re saying a bunch of unrelated stuff",decrease,hold,False,True,2975.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-18T03:42:34.357000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"Criminals get away with crimes if they aren’t stupid. Donald Trump isn’t one of those type of criminals, at least not an",decrease,decrease,True,True,35033.806,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-07-31T13:27:21.066000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/29/a-desantis-comeback-would-be-history-breaking-00108820 +Even in the early days ",increase,increase,True,True,380.248,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-28T04:16:33.304000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","It is hard to believe people making the same mistake as with 2016. Desantis, the only real contender here, is popular wi",increase,increase,True,True,230.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-21T02:39:39.058000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,My position is not based on just poll numbers but who the candidates themselves are and how they act. If it were an elec,increase,increase,True,True,482.4473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-02T23:24:36.118000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,That makes sense. The one on the bleach bottles is my favourite. I've akways wanted xray vision.,increase,hold,False,True,136.6465,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-10-31T19:24:10.736000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),With the new executive order on AI I'd say the chances just got a lot better.,hold,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-12-18T20:26:07.318000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"https://www.natesilver.net/p/nikki-haley-could-be-the-new-john +We’ve reached the point where the nominee being someone ",increase,increase,True,True,4437.5687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc,2023-11-20T17:06:50.264000+00:00,Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria),Please don’t tell me people are betting this up because of Sam Altman.,hold,decrease,False,True,1316.6505,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-19T22:27:41.838000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,you're right. I was very very sure that former presidents couldn't be part of public life as some sort of provision by t,hold,increase,False,True,1136.1586,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HE936apoNs7J1s7RHP2j,2023-09-19T11:27:16.964000+00:00,Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2023?,I can imagine it. Can you clarify the resolution criteria? Does it need to be reported by the media or is this more vibe,hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J,2023-10-10T21:18:14.031000+00:00,Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?,"Why not force 5 Rs to go with a REAL compromise candidate then, instead of tainted Kevin?",decrease,flip,False,True,43.9807,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-11-05T18:33:46.841000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Florida has a Supervisor of Elections position. Results are not managed by the Secretary of State. They don't have a liv,flip,hold,False,True,1472.8998,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-05T17:46:34.283000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],"Yup totally fair question, will pre-register a source in a bit! (Don't think it'll impact much for short term betting bu",increase,hold,False,True,141.5892,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +usSjx2AtbUvfg7QNq5g2,2023-07-17T03:02:47.295000+00:00,Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?,"oh okay, i was just wanted to know what 'focus on the business' meant if there was actually something he did beyond post",decrease,hold,False,True,3389.6593,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sa32rmy14a,2024-11-10T05:22:18.757000+00:00,Can I go 2 weeks after the election without finding out who won?,Bought no after hearing random people talking about the election in a hotel lobby. It just can't be done.,increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-07T17:19:10.273000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],Tampa could survive a cat 3-4 hurricane with minimal damage to infrastructure. The bigger concern might be flooding in C,flip,hold,False,True,130.0847,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-07-24T19:52:05.960000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,PredictIt is crypto? Are you thinking of polymarket?,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq,2023-08-17T19:11:32.175000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?,"common, this is pure cope. They'd never do that. They refused to impeach him even when he made a siege that could have k",decrease,decrease,True,True,1421.2529,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u0nk0u8ub8,2024-10-29T14:35:30.300000+00:00,Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet],The problem with racist rhetoric in general is that its meant to provoke and has no real utility beyond provocation and ,increase,decrease,False,True,1220.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +StGE8jHDQmDE2h1mjCAs,2023-09-30T18:23:51.088000+00:00,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,oh probably your balance is lagging :( anyone else?,increase,hold,False,True,1678.3493,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c493a0d9a7fe3e11b941fdf5445dde0bfba596f8 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.6566382491651377,0.7330897073013762,0.07645145813623855,UP,0.5873741568596205,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will the US rescue at least one American hostage from Hamas by Oct 31?,6,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.6069307723669529,0.5573859239970789,-0.04954484836987405,DOWN,0.8484221605107228,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,8,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.6615507714489137,0.6069307723669529,-0.0546199990819608,DOWN,0.8044726714977817,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.5360466411546209,0.3704870380427961,-0.16555960311182477,DOWN,0.40276458465234866,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,15,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.5170957800443505,0.8535161446647831,0.33642036462043257,UP,0.7033997929163665,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.4477777571871669,0.35825039896130595,-0.08952735822586094,DOWN,0.48047219698549787,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?,26,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.2124471342098643,0.2539094654272666,0.04146233121740231,UP,0.4428790916210108,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description],66,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.955645576883942,0.9826760182482863,0.027030441364344293,UP,0.9621113248417263,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Did Trump get shot? [hit by bullet],36,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.9532035466805399,0.9143442820441035,-0.03885926463643641,DOWN,0.9579698597058808,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Did Trump get shot? [hit by bullet],36,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.4793727269269125,0.7291315396113934,0.2497588126844809,UP,0.9832842319155157,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.4843036757026591,0.4751825476923968,-0.00912112801026227,DOWN,0.40982980640186467,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,49,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.5573859239970789,0.5170957800443505,-0.04029014395272834,DOWN,0.5490364746472685,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.9710738172549461,0.9532035466805399,-0.017870270574406266,DOWN,0.9462367283899836,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Did Trump get shot? [hit by bullet],36,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.0551397134058915,0.04478811095356643,-0.010351602452325068,DOWN,0.4255328995062954,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description],66,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.33681126969725145,0.21185233933292172,-0.12495893036432973,DOWN,0.15348922720029867,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description],66,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.8029473782562997,0.6566382491651377,-0.146309129091162,DOWN,0.16350730645055958,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will the US rescue at least one American hostage from Hamas by Oct 31?,6,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.4017450544151784,0.33507531989106415,-0.06666973452411423,DOWN,0.8217907087690628,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?,26,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.3965296450782614,0.04770704853413239,-0.348822596544129,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.5170576210800568,0.5465096530846004,0.029452032004543605,UP,0.22236515705099968,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.5764427673122583,0.4843036757026591,-0.09213909160959921,DOWN,0.5627135913650799,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,42,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +20,0.07377761977271649,0.06268421538660755,-0.011093404386108938,DOWN,0.2957983291887013,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,15,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +21,0.3704870380427961,0.07377761977271649,-0.2967094182700796,DOWN,0.07754442192348299,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,15,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +22,0.2639997586868955,0.2124471342098643,-0.05155262447703121,DOWN,0.04283979035408956,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description],66,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +23,0.3768765262682288,0.6502591982157513,0.27338267194752247,UP,0.9815156279358381,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +24,0.866934829275929,0.5360466411546209,-0.33088818812130816,DOWN,0.42536344093823225,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,15,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +25,0.5465096530846004,0.6842465989483251,0.13773694586372465,UP,0.9528356809864418,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,8,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +26,0.5679446337475758,0.6375993693615903,0.06965473561401458,UP,0.6552707047827853,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?,26,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +27,0.8535161446647831,0.9845667939737667,0.13105064930898358,UP,0.9715057486282079,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,13,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +28,0.3865785696318324,0.4017450544151784,0.01516648478334598,UP,0.45530859659410355,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?,26,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +29,0.4461449028115277,0.5004993820238298,0.05435447921230213,UP,0.14774163064091275,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,42,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +30,0.21185233933292172,0.0551397134058915,-0.15671262592703022,DOWN,0.12172354905900554,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description],66,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +31,0.7508216273283669,0.6754588294689516,-0.07536279785941524,DOWN,0.9023141633466445,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,12,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +32,0.8335968053556533,0.7773664673512629,-0.05623033800439037,DOWN,0.15327917049480197,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +33,0.28783756269935146,0.3768765262682288,0.08903896356887736,UP,0.0021909618750530335,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +34,0.9179649081333995,0.9902196347530147,0.07225472661961518,UP,0.9801254046272421,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,12,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +35,0.46622841594358544,0.523959767990981,0.057731352047395545,UP,0.3327974066914816,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,12,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +36,0.8467966961590263,0.955645576883942,0.10884888072491572,UP,0.9559146668110723,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Did Trump get shot? [hit by bullet],36,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +37,0.5095804063717867,0.5764427673122583,0.0668623609404716,UP,0.2070576581584738,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,42,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +38,0.3238880215809269,0.4461449028115277,0.1222568812306008,UP,0.9546722945333894,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,42,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +39,0.35825039896130595,0.5679446337475758,0.2096942347862698,UP,0.3778902098628419,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?,26,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cce50e04160e95e1c35313d22a942bcd312343d3 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.46211406518413206,0.43059108671552987,-0.03152297846860219,DOWN,0.8461325804333134,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?,17,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.6851930238244461,0.9691085613350574,0.28391553751061127,UP,0.9218893469151112,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,23,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.45101621502058786,0.48446034974273083,0.03344413472214297,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.1069268840084464,0.06130523272934976,-0.045621651279096634,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.2287491286064056,0.24794180435749485,0.019192675751089266,UP,0.3332562534203187,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,14,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.3927623148634488,0.2855859202555694,-0.10717639460787942,DOWN,0.660937580013786,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?,11,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.972648592077189,0.947465172775166,-0.025183419302023058,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Did Trump get shot? [hit by bullet],2,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.3456311765757577,0.31160184383730843,-0.03402933273844927,DOWN,0.8530213015503737,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description],23,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.4041559605359668,0.38899314877725516,-0.015162811758711647,DOWN,0.830051763817488,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?,27,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.5787645292843823,0.47073461931906196,-0.1080299099653203,DOWN,0.5054741339014018,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,34,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.38755567554471243,0.6024723325973316,0.21491665705261914,UP,0.01809508918790793,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?,25,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.4652159660998804,0.535909200239453,0.07069323413957257,UP,0.4187825390303701,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,23,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.4991021448767259,0.4802791906236741,-0.018822954253051805,DOWN,0.2473079052057027,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,31,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.2171807252397642,0.257934976237693,0.040754250997928815,UP,0.8800497930120389,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,33,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.9805388041194038,0.9894404226742769,0.008901618554873147,UP,0.886586121380087,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Did Trump get shot? [hit by bullet],28,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.20721700814171343,0.23400021870690363,0.026783210565190202,UP,0.07131275781038501,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,5,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.5966666666666667,0.6120742866351137,0.015407619968446973,UP,0.1419753086419753,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,3,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.22202093739597867,0.20014743171244964,-0.021873505683529026,DOWN,0.38268738545095177,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description],141,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.27892200806161876,0.04270118330086432,-0.23622082476075446,DOWN,0.07157931097273598,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description],175,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.4280533973019859,0.4550813999824902,0.027028002680504315,UP,0.08528364613576213,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,15,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +20,0.8101210852028427,0.8865547640589352,0.07643367885609254,UP,0.992213118088294,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,17,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +21,0.5008022001522333,0.493955531972164,-0.006846668180069293,DOWN,0.6777443869763211,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,54,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +22,0.8221967381017586,0.7220179116106052,-0.1001788264911534,DOWN,0.4173210346443553,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will the US rescue at least one American hostage from Hamas by Oct 31?,5,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +23,0.5700876714357355,0.640037400202483,0.06994972876674754,UP,0.4887264175060075,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +24,0.5753417639399175,0.5981311704705127,0.022789406530595135,UP,0.45972403381860566,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,8,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +25,0.6434508294026412,0.5485165794643093,-0.09493424993833188,DOWN,0.8772861588604302,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,3,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +26,0.8532358365280365,0.9682857950506,0.1150499585225635,UP,0.8433124419577482,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Did Trump get shot? [hit by bullet],51,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +27,0.7179595780260639,0.2882944352861687,-0.4296651427398952,DOWN,0.5792625670412971,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,49,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +28,0.5168868107712854,0.45529504442045976,-0.06159176635082564,DOWN,0.9468085982091575,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,29,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +29,0.6146272367334852,0.5183280807489256,-0.09629915598455963,DOWN,0.442350005721599,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?,39,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +30,0.29349289458533623,0.0038501746066639123,-0.2896427199786723,DOWN,0.27288568937570507,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,109,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +31,0.5375450757329489,0.73135995552252,0.19381487978957113,UP,0.9165550799473262,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will there be a federal government shutdown on midnight on September 30?,3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +32,0.7434647689152558,0.7708574657152789,0.027392696800023097,UP,0.600836563811186,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,16,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +33,0.3093734391472127,0.22557791258896862,-0.0837955265582441,DOWN,0.9521447937746884,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description],2,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +34,0.30023535585603867,0.29401117359809353,-0.006224182257945132,DOWN,0.2950080585386586,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?,16,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +35,0.2909278004258123,0.4985695397261588,0.20764173930034652,UP,0.12367653501040063,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +36,0.43719652853495966,0.35198686147779806,-0.0852096670571616,DOWN,0.44901342653731074,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?,42,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +37,0.2505955845033335,0.2338546099000807,-0.01674097460325283,DOWN,0.008973324266754549,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description],21,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +38,0.3302041772895391,0.31295276179545367,-0.01725141549408543,DOWN,0.5777816729681658,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will The Russia-Ukraine War End Within 90 days of Trump Taking Office? [see description],10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +39,0.6379278625420483,0.5699094117466735,-0.06801845079537472,DOWN,0.701299751501671,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,31,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4f64509ea782d7938539305b3831d77b464cd8f1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,81 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T23:26:02.046000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",what is your % that it was a lab leak?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T19:55:07.655000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Yeah, the API is shut down so I can no longer give status reports on how, and when people are investing in the market. B",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-24T17:41:31.714000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I think accepting the first clarifications as part of the paradox is fine. I don't think they clarify the paradox in the,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-26T21:56:20.560000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sorry for my slowness on some of the open questions here, and on recruiting a mathematician to adjudicate. + and I have",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-25T23:09:58.177000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Because the different dataset adds a lot of uncertainty. +Compare 2022 +2023 looking like an average of 16.46 +2022 had",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T18:31:56.096000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","ok fair enough I agree that statement was exaggerated. However, it is still true that we know almost nothing about what ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-11-12T15:30:36.151000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I agree with your comment on El Niño's role in potentially making 2023 the warmest year on record since it aligns with t,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-18T18:11:19.998000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"There's also the claim that ""it is well known that finite formal systems are stronger than algorithms."" I don't know qui",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T17:22:32.129000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I fined + M10k (for now, this may increase based on the number of alts they create) and banned them so that they won't ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T20:20:53.703000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Looks like + sold out and then other people bought in at a discount. +That news story is pretty funny once you know the",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T07:23:38.776000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"don't have the positions api any more so no longer grouping by maxoutcome, but just by bet outcomes so the updated repor",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T09:13:39.940000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,To the new users who sadly have all their starting mana locked up in this market: you might be happy to hear that you ca,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T06:35:40.216000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I sold my shares here because I don't know when the market will resolve. + I vaguely remember that I suggested giving f",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-20T07:51:15.681000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"ah I had read it as requiring three people, you and someone else from YES and someone else from NO. +Conditional on @dre",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:52:56.676000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,It was always very unlikely to fall in the summer months see my comment 3 months ago below.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-03T20:43:40.610000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","""The WIV was on a research proposals to insert furin cleavage sites into sars-like coronaviruses the year before the pan",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-31T16:28:45.435000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sure, true if SIA is true, I answered both ways above.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-24T16:21:46.121000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I present to you: Altered Snake Eyes. +I posit No bettors would agree it is analogous to this question's convoluted mes",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:23:30.185000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I'm so glad I sold the majority of my position at 67% After getting burned off the F-35 market the other day, I don't th",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-14T22:32:33.507000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"If I were a nobody who had resolved P vs NP, I'd visit the nearest computer science department, and offer $100 and free ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T07:25:30.168000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I agree that that version was what I intended. Sounds like where I went wrong in my market description was to lead with ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-30T01:00:02.942000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Of course all parties can do what they like within whatever constraints there are in the contract. No obligation to me t,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T21:05:48.328000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Zvi's hourly rate is $500 and judges say they spent about 150 hours on this. +Time to start a GoFundMe.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:36:56.190000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,What all these new accounts going to do with all the mana when this resolves to NO? 🤔,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T06:38:38.576000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Here's the Altered Snake Eyes Paradox which should fit nicely to what you, +, had in mind. I suppose the Yes write-ups ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T10:00:17.957000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm just going to note here, impartially, that few people here seem to fully grasp the distinction to be drawn between """,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T17:42:50.719000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","of course high ratios exist, but when they are legit it is on trivial facts that no one needs a judged debate on. when d",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T13:36:23.549000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"As far as I understand, Kongo accepted (are you still doing this, + ?). If not, please discard everything else in this ",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-12T23:18:07.277000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Yeah, that's a good high level summary. +It'll get into a lot more detail, of course -- the topic is complicated and the",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-27T11:47:48.188000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"> log of 2 +Thanks! +> (2) Given that person n (call him Bob) flipped the coin, what are the chances he dies? +No, in th",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T14:54:51.694000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,>Suppose another omniscient being Q' came to me and told me that he looked into the future and noticed that Q will roll ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T17:17:29.236000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I added FAQ#8: +""At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I stop"" has an implicit ""unless I",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-03T00:47:08.551000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","No problem, I already resolved the ""will the debate occur"" market here on your evidence despite it being fakeable (we ca",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-31T20:14:57.520000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I agree their process seems good. It's basically just bayesian updating. +I think what I'm actually surprised about is ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-12-14T23:46:04.282000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Dang, even though I'm well-aware this'll be a huge YES, I bought a single 1-mana share in ""NO"" for the hopes that the pe",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T16:07:33.706000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"It's hard to argue with ""I think [thing I said] had an implicit [x]"". +The ""can"" refers to ""cap it"". +Yes or no: Do you ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T18:22:44.664000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"No, it's valid to decide (and I came out in the black so my only real loss is time). +My feedback is that 'owner-of-the",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T13:53:44.523000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Thanks for your reply. I agree. My goal was to understand the problem better -- for me it helps. I also agree with you t,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T09:58:28.733000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I would say that you absolutely +can + get a well-defined probability that the game lasts longer than N rounds, and tha",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:06:33.237000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In fairness to the NO side, we should arguably not treat FAQs 6-9 as part of the problem statement. As I say in the desc",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T00:57:15.304000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Death is rather extreme and why would organisers give away many billions of dollars, if it was really offered rather bei",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-17T20:58:49.505000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Still preliminary but here's how our answers to these questions are shaping up: +Are we sure it's kosher to define a fin",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-05T09:11:55.066000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""probability goes up"". Where is the new info? You knew from before the experiment started that you will find at least on",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-30T23:03:26.963000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","On kind of a meta-level, I should note that: +A. I was uncertain about lab leak through 2020 and 2021 and left a lot of ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-15T00:32:44.984000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,The entire point of asking for three champions is so I don't have to listen to absolutely everyone. If they get chosen a,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T22:03:43.526000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"If we take a step back and look at the core parts of the paradox, only one of those assumptions seems essential: +The po",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T11:29:40.066000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I added a bit to my write up to try and clarify the confusion this market has produced. I'll paste it here: read my ful,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T11:01:50.695000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,Oh has it? Why does this market expire next month then? 170k is definitely a bigger number than I would have guessed.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T01:25:27.058000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I have enough on my plate with + +I was going more for joking. I can be frustrated by things but it is also just play m",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a1d58cbe38be739b956f994c6a427d64888e1e3b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,81 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-25T23:09:58.177000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Because the different dataset adds a lot of uncertainty. +Compare 2022 +2023 looking like an average of 16.46 +2022 had",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-26T21:56:20.560000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sorry for my slowness on some of the open questions here, and on recruiting a mathematician to adjudicate. + and I have",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-11-12T15:30:36.151000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I agree with your comment on El Niño's role in potentially making 2023 the warmest year on record since it aligns with t,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T19:55:07.655000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Yeah, the API is shut down so I can no longer give status reports on how, and when people are investing in the market. B",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T23:26:02.046000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",what is your % that it was a lab leak?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T17:22:32.129000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I fined + M10k (for now, this may increase based on the number of alts they create) and banned them so that they won't ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T18:31:56.096000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","ok fair enough I agree that statement was exaggerated. However, it is still true that we know almost nothing about what ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-24T17:41:31.714000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I think accepting the first clarifications as part of the paradox is fine. I don't think they clarify the paradox in the,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-18T18:11:19.998000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"There's also the claim that ""it is well known that finite formal systems are stronger than algorithms."" I don't know qui",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-20T07:51:15.681000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"ah I had read it as requiring three people, you and someone else from YES and someone else from NO. +Conditional on @dre",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-30T01:00:02.942000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Of course all parties can do what they like within whatever constraints there are in the contract. No obligation to me t,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T07:23:38.776000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"don't have the positions api any more so no longer grouping by maxoutcome, but just by bet outcomes so the updated repor",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T20:20:53.703000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Looks like + sold out and then other people bought in at a discount. +That news story is pretty funny once you know the",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T09:13:39.940000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,To the new users who sadly have all their starting mana locked up in this market: you might be happy to hear that you ca,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T06:35:40.216000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I sold my shares here because I don't know when the market will resolve. + I vaguely remember that I suggested giving f",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:52:56.676000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,It was always very unlikely to fall in the summer months see my comment 3 months ago below.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-03T20:43:40.610000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","""The WIV was on a research proposals to insert furin cleavage sites into sars-like coronaviruses the year before the pan",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-31T16:28:45.435000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sure, true if SIA is true, I answered both ways above.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-14T22:32:33.507000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"If I were a nobody who had resolved P vs NP, I'd visit the nearest computer science department, and offer $100 and free ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T21:05:48.328000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Zvi's hourly rate is $500 and judges say they spent about 150 hours on this. +Time to start a GoFundMe.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-24T16:21:46.121000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I present to you: Altered Snake Eyes. +I posit No bettors would agree it is analogous to this question's convoluted mes",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:23:30.185000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I'm so glad I sold the majority of my position at 67% After getting burned off the F-35 market the other day, I don't th",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T06:38:38.576000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Here's the Altered Snake Eyes Paradox which should fit nicely to what you, +, had in mind. I suppose the Yes write-ups ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:36:56.190000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,What all these new accounts going to do with all the mana when this resolves to NO? 🤔,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T07:25:30.168000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I agree that that version was what I intended. Sounds like where I went wrong in my market description was to lead with ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-12T23:18:07.277000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Yeah, that's a good high level summary. +It'll get into a lot more detail, of course -- the topic is complicated and the",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T10:00:17.957000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm just going to note here, impartially, that few people here seem to fully grasp the distinction to be drawn between """,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T13:36:23.549000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"As far as I understand, Kongo accepted (are you still doing this, + ?). If not, please discard everything else in this ",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-27T11:47:48.188000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"> log of 2 +Thanks! +> (2) Given that person n (call him Bob) flipped the coin, what are the chances he dies? +No, in th",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-03T00:47:08.551000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","No problem, I already resolved the ""will the debate occur"" market here on your evidence despite it being fakeable (we ca",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T17:42:50.719000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","of course high ratios exist, but when they are legit it is on trivial facts that no one needs a judged debate on. when d",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T17:17:29.236000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I added FAQ#8: +""At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I stop"" has an implicit ""unless I",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T14:54:51.694000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,>Suppose another omniscient being Q' came to me and told me that he looked into the future and noticed that Q will roll ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-31T20:14:57.520000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I agree their process seems good. It's basically just bayesian updating. +I think what I'm actually surprised about is ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T16:07:33.706000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"It's hard to argue with ""I think [thing I said] had an implicit [x]"". +The ""can"" refers to ""cap it"". +Yes or no: Do you ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T13:53:44.523000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Thanks for your reply. I agree. My goal was to understand the problem better -- for me it helps. I also agree with you t,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-12-14T23:46:04.282000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Dang, even though I'm well-aware this'll be a huge YES, I bought a single 1-mana share in ""NO"" for the hopes that the pe",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-17T20:58:49.505000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Still preliminary but here's how our answers to these questions are shaping up: +Are we sure it's kosher to define a fin",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:06:33.237000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In fairness to the NO side, we should arguably not treat FAQs 6-9 as part of the problem statement. As I say in the desc",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T00:57:15.304000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Death is rather extreme and why would organisers give away many billions of dollars, if it was really offered rather bei",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T18:22:44.664000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"No, it's valid to decide (and I came out in the black so my only real loss is time). +My feedback is that 'owner-of-the",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T09:58:28.733000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I would say that you absolutely +can + get a well-defined probability that the game lasts longer than N rounds, and tha",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T22:03:43.526000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"If we take a step back and look at the core parts of the paradox, only one of those assumptions seems essential: +The po",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-30T23:03:26.963000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","On kind of a meta-level, I should note that: +A. I was uncertain about lab leak through 2020 and 2021 and left a lot of ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T11:29:40.066000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I added a bit to my write up to try and clarify the confusion this market has produced. I'll paste it here: read my ful,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T01:25:27.058000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I have enough on my plate with + +I was going more for joking. I can be frustrated by things but it is also just play m",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T11:01:50.695000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,Oh has it? Why does this market expire next month then? 170k is definitely a bigger number than I would have guessed.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-15T00:32:44.984000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,The entire point of asking for three champions is so I don't have to listen to absolutely everyone. If they get chosen a,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-05T09:11:55.066000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""probability goes up"". Where is the new info? You knew from before the experiment started that you will find at least on",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..59d62dcd4af73d96e30f8f0dd655bf496b544229 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,153 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-11-12T15:30:36.151000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I agree with your comment on El Niño's role in potentially making 2023 the warmest year on record since it aligns with t,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T14:11:56.152000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I'm not making a drive by argument, I have responded to all responses to my comments. The issue is complex and I think t",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-03-20T18:57:44.857000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Your criteria are chosen in a way to make it unlikely to ever resolve, since few people—other than the peer reviewers, w",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T11:29:40.066000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I added a bit to my write up to try and clarify the confusion this market has produced. I'll paste it here: read my ful,NO,NO,True,True,400.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T21:29:35.297000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Ah, I've re-read the convo more carefully and noticed that she answers directly to a suggestion that bots do inside trad",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T00:39:32.835000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"FAQ1: The question is about the unrealistic case of Bitcoin closing, but it's never really closed so we can look at the ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-23T10:46:19.177000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Could we agree on some NO criteria that is actually likely to occur if the proof isn't right? Like, maybe if Wikipedia s",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-20T23:07:52.877000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,As for the second chart minute differences it may be how we calculate leap years or day number of year for lining up Sep,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,250.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-26T21:56:20.560000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sorry for my slowness on some of the open questions here, and on recruiting a mathematician to adjudicate. + and I have",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,3415.9628,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T22:55:40.858000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","@NicoDelon + That's like 8 dollars. Check out the high roller right here.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1032.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T00:57:15.304000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Death is rather extreme and why would organisers give away many billions of dollars, if it was really offered rather bei",YES,NO,False,True,22.6328,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1217.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T16:07:33.706000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"It's hard to argue with ""I think [thing I said] had an implicit [x]"". +The ""can"" refers to ""cap it"". +Yes or no: Do you ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-20T07:51:15.681000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"ah I had read it as requiring three people, you and someone else from YES and someone else from NO. +Conditional on @dre",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,22364.9539,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T20:20:53.703000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Looks like + sold out and then other people bought in at a discount. +That news story is pretty funny once you know the",YES,NO,False,True,1217.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-18T18:11:19.998000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"There's also the claim that ""it is well known that finite formal systems are stronger than algorithms."" I don't know qui",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T14:17:58.650000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",""" +Probable Pangolin Origin of SARS-CoV-2 Associated with the COVID-19 Outbreak, April 2022. +Re WIV sampling in Laos. ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-13T22:43:08.565000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Political questions are rarely 99% certain. I never know with certainty which candidate is best or which policies are be,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1172.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-31T20:14:57.520000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I agree their process seems good. It's basically just bayesian updating. +I think what I'm actually surprised about is ",YES,NO,False,True,30.1183,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T06:35:40.216000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I sold my shares here because I don't know when the market will resolve. + I vaguely remember that I suggested giving f",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,98.5224,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T19:55:07.655000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Yeah, the API is shut down so I can no longer give status reports on how, and when people are investing in the market. B",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,13976.9539,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-31T16:28:45.435000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sure, true if SIA is true, I answered both ways above.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-14T22:32:33.507000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"If I were a nobody who had resolved P vs NP, I'd visit the nearest computer science department, and offer $100 and free ",NO,NO,True,True,16002.4493,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-12T10:59:51.104000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The heart of the paradox is +that it seems we can't integrate versions 1 and 2.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-24T16:21:46.121000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I present to you: Altered Snake Eyes. +I posit No bettors would agree it is analogous to this question's convoluted mes",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T07:23:38.776000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"don't have the positions api any more so no longer grouping by maxoutcome, but just by bet outcomes so the updated repor",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,14476.9539,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-03T00:04:00.661000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Phew, thanks for confirming that! When I first posed the question I was confused myself about the infinite case. It quic",YES,NO,False,True,3415.9628,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T14:16:38.878000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've tried the good ol' Monte Carlo method: +https://gist.github.com/NiciusB/b9c100fd68dcf445744ffae9ac911408 +And it s",NO,NO,True,True,40.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T17:17:29.236000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I added FAQ#8: +""At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I stop"" has an implicit ""unless I",YES,NO,False,True,3454.899,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:36:56.190000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,What all these new accounts going to do with all the mana when this resolves to NO? 🤔,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-20T14:21:39.357000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Using temps from climatereanalyser rather than anomalies, then comparing to the year listed and Gistemp anomaly I get +1",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-30T23:03:26.963000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","On kind of a meta-level, I should note that: +A. I was uncertain about lab leak through 2020 and 2021 and left a lot of ",YES,NO,False,True,1217.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T01:25:27.058000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I have enough on my plate with + +I was going more for joking. I can be frustrated by things but it is also just play m",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T17:05:17.755000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I changed the code to make every game count the same towards the average death probability, instead of games that go on ",NO,NO,True,True,440.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:06:33.237000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In fairness to the NO side, we should arguably not treat FAQs 6-9 as part of the problem statement. As I say in the desc",YES,YES,True,True,3415.9628,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T22:03:43.526000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"If we take a step back and look at the core parts of the paradox, only one of those assumptions seems essential: +The po",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T14:54:51.694000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,>Suppose another omniscient being Q' came to me and told me that he looked into the future and noticed that Q will roll ,YES,NO,False,True,22.6328,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T09:13:39.940000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,To the new users who sadly have all their starting mana locked up in this market: you might be happy to hear that you ca,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,13150.4723,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:23:30.185000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I'm so glad I sold the majority of my position at 67% After getting burned off the F-35 market the other day, I don't th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,19.4454,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T12:03:24.447000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"A few more thoughts about this paradox. +It now seems clear that the Snake Eyes Paradox is a version of the Martingale b",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T17:22:32.129000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I fined + M10k (for now, this may increase based on the number of alts they create) and banned them so that they won't ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T19:13:17.923000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Ok, I hereby commit to deferring to +'s ruling on this. I'm saying this before having any idea which way they lean beyo",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,3415.9628,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-02T18:39:23.279000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","it should at some point, yes. Not yet because rootclaim themselves haven't indicated that it happened. But you'd expect ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T09:48:21.775000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","“a $100,000 prize” is an interesting term for a $100,000 bet at even odds for something they’re like 99% confident in.",YES,NO,False,True,1317.7112,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T21:25:51.912000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","It was my understanding that this market would resolve NO if it's a tie, and I think the language supports that. You wro",YES,NO,False,True,1217.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-29T22:54:32.730000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I have still not yet received writeups or champion lists from either YES or NO.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T13:53:57.887000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I'm sorry this is just ridiculous. The ""Antarctic soil sampling"" is plainly contaminated with a variety of sequences fro",YES,NO,False,True,2052.7112,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-17T23:18:26.515000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Congrats on the 100k! Loved the video series, one of the few gems out there w.r.t in-depth research",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T20:29:41.987000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I know some of you are way ahead of me but the +Bartha & Hitchcock paper + is kind of amazing. Everything is exactly th",YES,YES,True,True,12454.1214,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T15:33:04.967000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I sold and switched to NO for this reason,NO,NO,True,True,5.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T13:53:44.523000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Thanks for your reply. I agree. My goal was to understand the problem better -- for me it helps. I also agree with you t,YES,YES,True,True,10.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-16T20:56:59.842000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Did you read an old version of the market description or the current one? +A thing I mentioned earlier when Martin Randa",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,3415.9628,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:10:46.364000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Is the answer to this already leaked, at least for men/women as a whole, or is this about kinks and not upbringing? +htt",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T18:22:44.664000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"No, it's valid to decide (and I came out in the black so my only real loss is time). +My feedback is that 'owner-of-the",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T07:25:30.168000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I agree that that version was what I intended. Sounds like where I went wrong in my market description was to lead with ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,3415.9628,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-17T00:58:10.406000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,If that aren't enough participants in the queue yet then you wait until there are?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:18:47.008000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Me too, but are we just assuming the market was correctly-priced before? Is anyone gonna buy my YES off me for more than",YES,NO,False,True,250.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-03T20:43:40.610000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","""The WIV was on a research proposals to insert furin cleavage sites into sars-like coronaviruses the year before the pan",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T13:36:23.549000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"As far as I understand, Kongo accepted (are you still doing this, + ?). If not, please discard everything else in this ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:51:29.678000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Strictly speaking this provision is blatantly abusable mechanism for someone to theoretically buy a single share in the ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T20:46:32.397000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sounds good! Thanks for doing this! My initial reactions: +0) You know that M$1308 can literally be bought for $13.08, r",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,3415.9628,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-25T23:09:58.177000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Because the different dataset adds a lot of uncertainty. +Compare 2022 +2023 looking like an average of 16.46 +2022 had",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T10:00:17.957000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm just going to note here, impartially, that few people here seem to fully grasp the distinction to be drawn between """,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-27T11:47:48.188000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"> log of 2 +Thanks! +> (2) Given that person n (call him Bob) flipped the coin, what are the chances he dies? +No, in th",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T18:31:56.096000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","ok fair enough I agree that statement was exaggerated. However, it is still true that we know almost nothing about what ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:20:58.479000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Wamba said: +so I can either defend my math or repair my error. +Actually, we don't have to show Opposing party their mi",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,797.1382,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T06:30:43.718000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","he could point to papers since the debate undermine core tenets of the market origin theory. +Spatial statistics expert",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-24T01:08:53.174000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,Insane market. It's a 12-page paper that came out nearly 2 years ago. It usually takes an afternoon to read something li,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T09:58:28.733000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I would say that you absolutely +can + get a well-defined probability that the game lasts longer than N rounds, and tha",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:52:56.676000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,It was always very unlikely to fall in the summer months see my comment 3 months ago below.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T17:42:50.719000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","of course high ratios exist, but when they are legit it is on trivial facts that no one needs a judged debate on. when d",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-15T02:13:14.205000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I very much am! Resolves to MKT is an option, yeah.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-12T23:18:07.277000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Yeah, that's a good high level summary. +It'll get into a lot more detail, of course -- the topic is complicated and the",YES,NO,False,True,1172.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T11:01:50.695000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,Oh has it? Why does this market expire next month then? 170k is definitely a bigger number than I would have guessed.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-05T09:11:55.066000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""probability goes up"". Where is the new info? You knew from before the experiment started that you will find at least on",NO,NO,True,True,2695.9563,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-15T00:32:44.984000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,The entire point of asking for three champions is so I don't have to listen to absolutely everyone. If they get chosen a,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-03T00:47:08.551000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","No problem, I already resolved the ""will the debate occur"" market here on your evidence despite it being fakeable (we ca",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-24T20:01:57.094000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Ok. But then I don't really understand your investment in this market. +35/36 chance of living + ends in dying +and +35/",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-12-14T23:46:04.282000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Dang, even though I'm well-aware this'll be a huge YES, I bought a single 1-mana share in ""NO"" for the hopes that the pe",NO,YES,False,True,5.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-14T22:22:19.933000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,Question to everyone who wants me to resolve this NO: Do you believe that this paper has been subjected to sufficient sc,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-26T07:07:23.514000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Definitely. I mean, we're debating a probability, so turning it into a bet is straightforward: +You join a pool of playe",YES,YES,True,True,27976.6354,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-17T20:58:49.505000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Still preliminary but here's how our answers to these questions are shaping up: +Are we sure it's kosher to define a fin",YES,YES,True,True,23907.6354,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T06:38:38.576000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Here's the Altered Snake Eyes Paradox which should fit nicely to what you, +, had in mind. I suppose the Yes write-ups ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T21:05:48.328000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Zvi's hourly rate is $500 and judges say they spent about 150 hours on this. +Time to start a GoFundMe.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1217.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-28T23:03:05.108000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Seemed like both you and AK did, but it's all good. You have the right to be skeptical when you place your bets. For me,",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1217.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-30T01:00:02.942000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Of course all parties can do what they like within whatever constraints there are in the contract. No obligation to me t,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,3054.7112,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-05T17:13:47.461000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Is the data source this: +https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies/anomalies + (global,",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-20T22:44:08.346000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,The CR anomaly is deducting the Sept 1979-2000 average of 15.475 rather than deducting 14 but this is just a constant of,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T23:26:02.046000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",what is your % that it was a lab leak?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T13:41:42.916000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I have a question for + maybe I can reach him here. +Peter, do you think that WIV was ""unlucky"" that a natural spillov",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T06:09:07.973000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Your point 2 is actually a pretty good argument. +Though the lack of falsifiability is a much more common theme of lab l",YES,NO,False,True,1217.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-24T19:38:35.913000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"There should be a new round in 35/36 of cases. And the round needs to increase until survival, not until death.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-03-08T13:42:16.308000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,Selling since it doesn't seem like Isaac is interested in resolving this.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T07:57:07.998000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The conclusion of Paul Bartha and Christopher Hitchcock's ""The Shooting-Room Paradox and Conditionalizing on Measurably ",YES,YES,True,True,11426.9539,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T16:09:59.766000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Yes I had briefly looked at your graph and some of your comments. 0.3 sounds a bit higher than the ~0.1C I think I remem,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-24T17:41:31.714000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I think accepting the first clarifications as part of the paradox is fine. I don't think they clarify the paradox in the,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..34d4e025c975d70d38031c9b4f43452d1fdbbb82 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,118 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T10:32:01.444000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,test comment to see if this page is responsive (for another market),increase,hold,False,True,280.1104,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-31T19:19:18.873000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I was strong NO until I watched the debate. I am pretty surprised at Rootclaim presentation. +I expected it to be very m",increase,decrease,False,True,30.1183,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:55:08.164000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,I say we keep the price at 69%,flip,hold,False,True,860.6513,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T02:47:27.023000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Copying my comment: +What's wild to me is that +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory +",increase,decrease,False,True,10.9163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T14:14:11.983000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",If someone wants to hedge w.r.t the N/A resolution:,hold,decrease,False,True,413.719,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-26T16:33:33.424000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,So your model was predicting at one point that the last couple of days would be even hotter? Interesting. I would have t,flip,decrease,False,True,400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:11:47.373000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"""Mom can we have the survey results?"" +""We have survey results at home.""",increase,hold,False,True,98.7962,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T14:58:46.676000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"+1 +Like, will 5% difference count as a NO? Or 3%?",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T02:15:17.275000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Isn't what you like to call "" +the multiple-stage fallacy +"" just a special case of what Nate has called ""Heroic Bayesia",flip,hold,False,True,155.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-08-14T14:59:52.786000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Wow, what a difference in confidence. Edit: They may still be using a slightly different methodology, I never looked int",hold,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T11:09:15.565000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,It definitely alters the odds that she doesn't preregister what correlations will be made into markets.,flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T09:20:43.985000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Hi all, just to let you know I've revised my presentation on ""no"" (making it shorter and, I think, a lot clearer). Ple",increase,increase,True,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T12:54:58.951000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I can see where you're coming from. If you only take that one sentence in isolation and interpret it to mean ""do not con",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T08:57:45.706000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""Currently every method gives >=0.5."" what's wrong with saying that you see exactly one dice roll, which has 1/36 chance",increase,hold,False,True,14608.3935,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-26T21:03:19.664000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"will there be a time limit on that? +The most likely outcome for these sorts of things is always that the relevant peopl",decrease,decrease,True,True,5165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T06:48:20.719000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"but if you actually have an infinite number of people and will never have everyone survive then it's 1/2. +The odds of e",hold,increase,False,True,8526.9539,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T22:28:17.400000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I gather from the Wikipedia page that anthropics is working backwards from, perhaps perfect knowledge of the system rule",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:00:15.798000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I Hope + is enjoying all the new trader bonuses she must be getting from this market",decrease,hold,False,True,97.7196,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T09:37:34.417000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The game is not required to end, and therefor might not end +After you do a proper infinite sum and weight everything by",decrease,increase,False,True,740.1382,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T10:08:58.728000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",How did finding 7 in Gilles' report make you feel?,hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T23:48:11.433000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I've seen enough poll answers and comments to show that the level of unanimity for non-objection to resolving 50% in the,hold,hold,True,True,1865.7229,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T22:49:30.710000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"it could also be a friend from another party, who gives up his intention to return the mana. +Even closing the trading w",hold,decrease,False,True,2647.8555,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T09:40:05.309000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"since when is your tree approach ""mathematically correct"" +it does not cause internal contradictions like 0.2=0.25. The ",decrease,increase,False,True,740.1382,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T05:20:28.308000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Well due to being the first one to see the irrational market movement, I'm now suddenly very invested in this resolving ",flip,increase,False,True,1591.3784,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T19:58:01.032000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Okay so I watched all the debates and I thought they were great, but honestly I still don't have a strong opinion on if ",increase,decrease,False,True,14417.3371,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:57:03.833000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think you should weight by both multiplied, right? I read it but there's way too many comments, maybe you can point me",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-21T07:54:30.478000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Doh, I just now discovered that the trading history tab here is not showing me all the trades! Presumably they can be fo",hold,decrease,False,True,4464.1214,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-17T00:12:18.550000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Perhaps I will bring a covid infected raccoon dog to the debate as proof.,increase,decrease,False,True,198.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-02T16:48:06.016000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,People still get fooled by martingales in 2023 xD,decrease,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T01:28:50.272000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I see - thanks for the calculation. +So there's a 17/18 chance no one dies, and a 1/18 chance that you have a 1/36 chanc",decrease,decrease,True,True,118.9272,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-27T01:11:00.327000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,the modal outcome for things like this is that we never hear anything of note ever again. So does this market just never,decrease,decrease,True,True,5165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-30T06:08:39.084000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The question is isomorphic to the Shooting-Room Paradox described in Bartha, P., Hitchcock, C. The Shooting-Room Paradox",hold,hold,True,True,17554.9539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T16:43:01.883000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","In this case getting odds ratio of 10000 on an incomplete, biased data curated by a likely culpable party, using argumen",decrease,increase,False,True,24476.9473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T22:25:30.553000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"We have a boy, his aim is 0.5 (misses half of shots). What is the probability that he hits the aim if he has 2 bullets? ",hold,decrease,False,True,12726.9539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:49:55.016000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,(I'm hedging because I'm worried I missed something and the new probability is correct. Maybe the old one was just overc,flip,decrease,False,True,3487.4203,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:45:48.272000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I'm fascinated by how this market was originally at ~85% and has now stabilized at ~60% after all the spam, despite (as ",flip,decrease,False,True,4149.9183,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-21T01:23:16.784000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks! Good analysis here. My understanding of the strongest case for NO is to interpret ""at some point we roll snake e",decrease,hold,False,True,4915.9628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:42:45.182000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,could you please read my Coin Toss market and the comments there (especially Red and Blue robots and dialog with Primer),decrease,hold,False,True,797.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T22:53:45.057000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I’ve already spent 800+ mana. You’re still the only major YES holder. Kudos to you if you win but shame on the little br,increase,decrease,False,True,836.4095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T16:11:44.641000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"A guy is signing up for a bunch of new accounts and getting 500 free mana on each, then betting it all on no. The mods a",flip,decrease,False,True,1501.8708,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-23T18:11:53.357000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I post these mostly so that people can see how commentor actions/position in the market can either reflect their belief ,hold,hold,True,True,15153.9539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-30T02:52:09.070000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"to confirm, is there an infinite number of people in the pool, or is there N, where N is large? these lead to the two di",flip,decrease,False,True,55.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T21:36:13.347000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I was going to write something up just to remember what my initial thoughts were, regardless, it was ultimately function",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:50:26.694000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"if these are actually crypto bots, they're probably not price sensitive, so can we all just independently decide to move",flip,hold,False,True,2740.6349,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:57:35.772000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,where are you getting all these google accounts,flip,hold,False,True,7280.6173,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T20:32:17.414000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I'm hoping he just gives a number in his usual course of blogging, because apparently he was + too expensive + for Rootc",increase,decrease,False,True,14417.3371,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T06:26:51.519000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Begin the paragraph with "">"" Without quotes",increase,UNKNOWN,False,True,4341.75,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T20:13:00.842000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"I think he did mean #3 out of those, based on his response here: +https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/16912251655379681",hold,hold,True,True,74.8324,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T20:49:04.935000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,As to the question whether a casino would welcome a Martingale bettor: I believe your assertions assume that the Marting,hold,hold,True,True,8726.9539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:05:23.456000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,This website is deranged (affectionate),decrease,hold,False,True,1650.936,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T17:26:25.891000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"if you both agree, this 👆picture should be added to the Fintan's writeup to show the convergence",decrease,hold,False,True,797.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T18:32:49.079000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"since in every game the last round contains more people than all other rounds put together, you are most likely to be ch",hold,decrease,False,True,3325.9628,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T12:01:28.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I have to ask, does the Rootclaim method of analysis (I think of it as ""Heroic Bayesian Analysis"") actually work? Basica",increase,decrease,False,True,1.8617,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T16:33:15.559000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Pinging also + and + , I really don't think everyone agrees on the finite case. I personally think it could be interpr",flip,decrease,False,True,178.5206,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-29T19:44:38.225000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",IDK guys I feel like it's fine for them to wait a bit to release the outcome. Maybe they want to do some fancy PR thing ,hold,hold,True,True,2217.7419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T15:21:54.239000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I ran a billion games: 75.00015132591597577%,increase,increase,True,True,240.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:12:08.552000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,apparently this survey is outdated,increase,decrease,False,True,19.6051,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T03:41:06.023000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Looks like I won't be buying much more so here's my YES case: +Polymarket is at 78c +YES is the simple, obvious answer ",decrease,increase,False,True,27422.6095,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-05T06:27:56.373000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Still not seeing you betting this up heavily. What's stopping you?,decrease,decrease,True,True,14539.769,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T11:29:20.303000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,yea. The market deserves to be in a newsletter and get its page in Manifold history.,decrease,hold,False,True,740.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-22T17:01:15.499000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Honestly, it really feels like you, +, are doing everything possible to weasel out of the situation. Yes, you can write",decrease,decrease,True,True,1241.1311,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-28T21:30:15.428000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"If your challenge is to reformulate the market to get answer ~1/2, that's easy: +Market A: perform the game for N rounds",flip,decrease,False,True,681.3714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T08:05:55.011000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Just adding an additional comment to ensure you see my edit above. Apologies for the confusion. Planning to NA like this,hold,decrease,False,True,1865.7229,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-30T16:50:24.014000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","It seems more likely to post with a location tag at a market than a hospital, so this concern can go in the other direct",increase,decrease,False,True,921.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-05T23:49:06.243000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Thanks for the thoughtful response. +I don't know why I would need to ""see someone"" for my ""breakdown"", given that you'r",hold,decrease,False,True,1217.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T23:48:46.780000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Please feel free to Google it or continue to parade your ignorance. AFAIK the person making the incorrect claim also has,decrease,increase,False,True,24476.9473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-15T14:00:55.754000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"See the discussion in the replies to +'s terms about the version to use. (Again, I'm hiding redundant comments or comme",increase,hold,False,True,4205.9628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T11:15:44.374000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Oh yes sorry I missed that - I think I now see why the 1/36 is probably right. +A lot of the problem stems from the way ",decrease,decrease,True,True,118.9272,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T23:06:05.035000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've been working a little on a draft (which I'm not gonna disclose) of ""the question [you] should have asked"". But I'm ",flip,decrease,False,True,44.7059,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-23T18:09:25.293000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"That sounds like a different genre: trick questions! Reminds me of +https://xkcd.com/169/ +Anyway, thanks for the nudge",hold,hold,True,True,27626.6354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T22:22:31.712000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"But hardlimiting contradicts the problem statement. The limiting by N is incorrect! +The general case is always ending w",increase,increase,True,True,119.2895,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-16T18:15:48.053000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"It is buried in the comments now but I will reiterate it here, and probably should add it to my write up. The condition",increase,increase,True,True,12226.9539,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:02:38.102000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Have kids. +They are too old for spanking. +Learn that they are into Manifold and Aella +Get all my friends to fill out ",flip,flip,True,True,3200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T03:24:04.956000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I wrote a monte carlo simulation in python which always outputs ~1/36 for any N value I plug in. +import random +survive",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T00:48:03.257000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",You could also hypothesize that it's a US bioweapon launched at the Huanan market to be maximally confusing. That's why ,hold,increase,False,True,1217.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-24T09:42:30.075000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,I'm just glad that I have a place to dump my extra mana,increase,hold,False,True,1050.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-16T21:11:10.107000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,The argument for yes is just wrong because it’s not conditioning on all the available information,flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-07T23:38:25.770000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","As stated above, it is obvious that China has not shared as much information as they could on this issue. I've said that",hold,decrease,False,True,1217.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-25T23:57:58.625000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"(though I guess either way I should +wait until they release the December data +)",hold,decrease,False,True,753.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:27:23.408000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I think that's reasonable. However, if the fact that they are liberal is the reason for a surprising result, and that's ",decrease,decrease,True,True,18100.9353,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c9c0e5bf8a2c1db59d572d67586d54b88ff41bb9 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,58 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T23:48:46.780000+00:00,Please feel free to Google it or continue to parade your ignorance. AFAIK the person making the incorrect claim also has,decrease,hold,False +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-27T01:11:00.327000+00:00,the modal outcome for things like this is that we never hear anything of note ever again. So does this market just never,decrease,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T09:37:34.417000+00:00,"The game is not required to end, and therefor might not end +After you do a proper infinite sum and weight everything by",decrease,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T22:25:30.553000+00:00,"We have a boy, his aim is 0.5 (misses half of shots). What is the probability that he hits the aim if he has 2 bullets? ",hold,decrease,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:42:45.182000+00:00,could you please read my Coin Toss market and the comments there (especially Red and Blue robots and dialog with Primer),decrease,decrease,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T11:15:44.374000+00:00,"Oh yes sorry I missed that - I think I now see why the 1/36 is probably right. +A lot of the problem stems from the way ",decrease,decrease,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-29T19:44:38.225000+00:00,IDK guys I feel like it's fine for them to wait a bit to release the outcome. Maybe they want to do some fancy PR thing ,hold,hold,True +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-08-14T14:59:52.786000+00:00,"Wow, what a difference in confidence. Edit: They may still be using a slightly different methodology, I never looked int",hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-30T06:08:39.084000+00:00,"The question is isomorphic to the Shooting-Room Paradox described in Bartha, P., Hitchcock, C. The Shooting-Room Paradox",hold,decrease,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T17:26:25.891000+00:00,"if you both agree, this 👆picture should be added to the Fintan's writeup to show the convergence",decrease,hold,False +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T20:13:00.842000+00:00,"I think he did mean #3 out of those, based on his response here: +https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/16912251655379681",hold,decrease,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T12:54:58.951000+00:00,"I can see where you're coming from. If you only take that one sentence in isolation and interpret it to mean ""do not con",decrease,decrease,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-21T01:23:16.784000+00:00,"Thanks! Good analysis here. My understanding of the strongest case for NO is to interpret ""at some point we roll snake e",decrease,decrease,True +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-25T23:57:58.625000+00:00,"(though I guess either way I should +wait until they release the December data +)",hold,hold,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-07T23:38:25.770000+00:00,"As stated above, it is obvious that China has not shared as much information as they could on this issue. I've said that",hold,decrease,False +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T03:41:06.023000+00:00,"Looks like I won't be buying much more so here's my YES case: +Polymarket is at 78c +YES is the simple, obvious answer ",decrease,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-22T17:01:15.499000+00:00,"Honestly, it really feels like you, +, are doing everything possible to weasel out of the situation. Yes, you can write",decrease,decrease,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T22:49:30.710000+00:00,"it could also be a friend from another party, who gives up his intention to return the mana. +Even closing the trading w",hold,decrease,False +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:00:15.798000+00:00,"I Hope + is enjoying all the new trader bonuses she must be getting from this market",decrease,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T10:08:58.728000+00:00,How did finding 7 in Gilles' report make you feel?,hold,hold,True +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-26T21:03:19.664000+00:00,"will there be a time limit on that? +The most likely outcome for these sorts of things is always that the relevant peopl",decrease,hold,False +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:27:23.408000+00:00,"I think that's reasonable. However, if the fact that they are liberal is the reason for a surprising result, and that's ",decrease,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T11:29:20.303000+00:00,yea. The market deserves to be in a newsletter and get its page in Manifold history.,decrease,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-23T18:09:25.293000+00:00,"That sounds like a different genre: trick questions! Reminds me of +https://xkcd.com/169/ +Anyway, thanks for the nudge",hold,hold,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T23:48:11.433000+00:00,I've seen enough poll answers and comments to show that the level of unanimity for non-objection to resolving 50% in the,hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-02T16:48:06.016000+00:00,People still get fooled by martingales in 2023 xD,decrease,decrease,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T14:14:11.983000+00:00,If someone wants to hedge w.r.t the N/A resolution:,hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-23T18:11:53.357000+00:00,I post these mostly so that people can see how commentor actions/position in the market can either reflect their belief ,hold,hold,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-05T06:27:56.373000+00:00,Still not seeing you betting this up heavily. What's stopping you?,decrease,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T08:05:55.011000+00:00,Just adding an additional comment to ensure you see my edit above. Apologies for the confusion. Planning to NA like this,hold,hold,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-05T23:49:06.243000+00:00,"Thanks for the thoughtful response. +I don't know why I would need to ""see someone"" for my ""breakdown"", given that you'r",hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T20:49:04.935000+00:00,As to the question whether a casino would welcome a Martingale bettor: I believe your assertions assume that the Marting,hold,decrease,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T16:43:01.883000+00:00,"In this case getting odds ratio of 10000 on an incomplete, biased data curated by a likely culpable party, using argumen",decrease,decrease,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-21T07:54:30.478000+00:00,"Doh, I just now discovered that the trading history tab here is not showing me all the trades! Presumably they can be fo",hold,decrease,False +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:05:23.456000+00:00,This website is deranged (affectionate),decrease,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T00:48:03.257000+00:00,You could also hypothesize that it's a US bioweapon launched at the Huanan market to be maximally confusing. That's why ,hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T09:40:05.309000+00:00,"since when is your tree approach ""mathematically correct"" +it does not cause internal contradictions like 0.2=0.25. The ",decrease,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T01:28:50.272000+00:00,"I see - thanks for the calculation. +So there's a 17/18 chance no one dies, and a 1/18 chance that you have a 1/36 chanc",decrease,decrease,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T06:48:20.719000+00:00,"but if you actually have an infinite number of people and will never have everyone survive then it's 1/2. +The odds of e",hold,decrease,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T18:32:49.079000+00:00,"since in every game the last round contains more people than all other rounds put together, you are most likely to be ch",hold,decrease,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..17c19ff3ddce53ac4397aa2a79a92c4a2cede0e8 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,58 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T11:09:15.565000+00:00,It definitely alters the odds that she doesn't preregister what correlations will be made into markets.,flip,hold,False +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-08-14T14:59:52.786000+00:00,"Wow, what a difference in confidence. Edit: They may still be using a slightly different methodology, I never looked int",hold,hold,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T02:15:17.275000+00:00,"Isn't what you like to call "" +the multiple-stage fallacy +"" just a special case of what Nate has called ""Heroic Bayesia",flip,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-29T19:44:38.225000+00:00,IDK guys I feel like it's fine for them to wait a bit to release the outcome. Maybe they want to do some fancy PR thing ,hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:57:03.833000+00:00,"I think you should weight by both multiplied, right? I read it but there's way too many comments, maybe you can point me",flip,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T22:25:30.553000+00:00,"We have a boy, his aim is 0.5 (misses half of shots). What is the probability that he hits the aim if he has 2 bullets? ",hold,flip,False +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:45:48.272000+00:00,"I'm fascinated by how this market was originally at ~85% and has now stabilized at ~60% after all the spam, despite (as ",flip,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T16:33:15.559000+00:00,"Pinging also + and + , I really don't think everyone agrees on the finite case. I personally think it could be interpr",flip,hold,False +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:57:35.772000+00:00,where are you getting all these google accounts,flip,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T22:28:17.400000+00:00,"I gather from the Wikipedia page that anthropics is working backwards from, perhaps perfect knowledge of the system rule",flip,hold,False +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T20:13:00.842000+00:00,"I think he did mean #3 out of those, based on his response here: +https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/16912251655379681",hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-30T06:08:39.084000+00:00,"The question is isomorphic to the Shooting-Room Paradox described in Bartha, P., Hitchcock, C. The Shooting-Room Paradox",hold,flip,False +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T16:11:44.641000+00:00,"A guy is signing up for a bunch of new accounts and getting 500 free mana on each, then betting it all on no. The mods a",flip,flip,True +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-25T23:57:58.625000+00:00,"(though I guess either way I should +wait until they release the December data +)",hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T22:49:30.710000+00:00,"it could also be a friend from another party, who gives up his intention to return the mana. +Even closing the trading w",hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-30T02:52:09.070000+00:00,"to confirm, is there an infinite number of people in the pool, or is there N, where N is large? these lead to the two di",flip,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-07T23:38:25.770000+00:00,"As stated above, it is obvious that China has not shared as much information as they could on this issue. I've said that",hold,hold,True +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:50:26.694000+00:00,"if these are actually crypto bots, they're probably not price sensitive, so can we all just independently decide to move",flip,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T10:08:58.728000+00:00,How did finding 7 in Gilles' report make you feel?,hold,hold,True +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-26T16:33:33.424000+00:00,So your model was predicting at one point that the last couple of days would be even hotter? Interesting. I would have t,flip,hold,False +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T05:20:28.308000+00:00,"Well due to being the first one to see the irrational market movement, I'm now suddenly very invested in this resolving ",flip,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T23:48:11.433000+00:00,I've seen enough poll answers and comments to show that the level of unanimity for non-objection to resolving 50% in the,hold,hold,True +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:02:38.102000+00:00,"Have kids. +They are too old for spanking. +Learn that they are into Manifold and Aella +Get all my friends to fill out ",flip,flip,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T23:06:05.035000+00:00,"I've been working a little on a draft (which I'm not gonna disclose) of ""the question [you] should have asked"". But I'm ",flip,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T14:14:11.983000+00:00,If someone wants to hedge w.r.t the N/A resolution:,hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T21:36:13.347000+00:00,"I was going to write something up just to remember what my initial thoughts were, regardless, it was ultimately function",flip,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-23T18:11:53.357000+00:00,I post these mostly so that people can see how commentor actions/position in the market can either reflect their belief ,hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-23T18:09:25.293000+00:00,"That sounds like a different genre: trick questions! Reminds me of +https://xkcd.com/169/ +Anyway, thanks for the nudge",hold,hold,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T08:05:55.011000+00:00,Just adding an additional comment to ensure you see my edit above. Apologies for the confusion. Planning to NA like this,hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-28T21:30:15.428000+00:00,"If your challenge is to reformulate the market to get answer ~1/2, that's easy: +Market A: perform the game for N rounds",flip,flip,True +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T14:58:46.676000+00:00,"+1 +Like, will 5% difference count as a NO? Or 3%?",flip,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-05T23:49:06.243000+00:00,"Thanks for the thoughtful response. +I don't know why I would need to ""see someone"" for my ""breakdown"", given that you'r",hold,flip,False +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:55:08.164000+00:00,I say we keep the price at 69%,flip,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T20:49:04.935000+00:00,As to the question whether a casino would welcome a Martingale bettor: I believe your assertions assume that the Marting,hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-16T21:11:10.107000+00:00,The argument for yes is just wrong because it’s not conditioning on all the available information,flip,hold,False +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:49:55.016000+00:00,(I'm hedging because I'm worried I missed something and the new probability is correct. Maybe the old one was just overc,flip,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T00:48:03.257000+00:00,You could also hypothesize that it's a US bioweapon launched at the Huanan market to be maximally confusing. That's why ,hold,flip,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-21T07:54:30.478000+00:00,"Doh, I just now discovered that the trading history tab here is not showing me all the trades! Presumably they can be fo",hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T06:48:20.719000+00:00,"but if you actually have an infinite number of people and will never have everyone survive then it's 1/2. +The odds of e",hold,flip,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T18:32:49.079000+00:00,"since in every game the last round contains more people than all other rounds put together, you are most likely to be ch",hold,flip,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..acfcd636f56f0a50b1907658be3e7e89e58cc3d1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,116 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-09-06T00:05:44.191000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,it is cumulative that is graphed above.,hold,hold,True,True,959.2728,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:32:48.316000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"We need a Manifold SEC investigation to see what insider information + knew",increase,decrease,False,True,19.4454,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-08T13:01:09.779000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,The point is that we should focus on proving complexity lower bounds.,increase,decrease,False,True,1980.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:56:25.003000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,This should be allowed and encouraged as long as it is done with bought mana and not startup bonus. You paid for that ma,increase,hold,False,True,3880.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-14T09:13:20.746000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Three things I would say are true. +You have been chosen to play in the next round, the probability that you will die is",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T05:38:05.287000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I don't love having this much in any one market, put a limit order for no at 70% if anyone wants to take this dirty cryp",flip,decrease,False,True,2192.3784,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T21:36:13.347000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I was going to write something up just to remember what my initial thoughts were, regardless, it was ultimately function",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T20:32:17.414000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I'm hoping he just gives a number in his usual course of blogging, because apparently he was + too expensive + for Rootc",increase,decrease,False,True,14417.3371,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-23T00:15:37.471000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"sometimes the resolution to a paradox is ""the barber shaves herself"", so it would be in genre for the resolution to be t",hold,flip,False,True,96.7058,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-07T16:01:06.200000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"If the number for July does turn out to be a record anomaly, do people think it's best to resolve immediately or to wait",decrease,decrease,True,True,96.1013,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T12:29:09.571000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I've absolutely seen people end up ruined by learning about ""reference class forecasting"". They think they can pick any",increase,decrease,False,True,1675.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:00:43.382000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,You don't get bonuses once 100 traders are crossed for a market.,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T02:38:08.163000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I mean, regardless of the actual truth about COVID this market's outcome seems very certain to me now just based on the ",increase,flip,False,True,10686.8568,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:32:58.755000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Over the last hour, the price on polymarket has fallen from 86% to 75%. I don't see what could have caused that except t",flip,decrease,False,True,860.6513,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:11:45.352000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks again for all the progress on pinning this down! Another bit of progress I think we just made is in +the snibgib",hold,increase,False,True,3415.9628,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T12:54:58.951000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I can see where you're coming from. If you only take that one sentence in isolation and interpret it to mean ""do not con",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-01T16:51:49.983000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,My main concern here is that bad and wrong papers get published in peer reviewed journals all the time.,hold,decrease,False,True,1050.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-19T08:34:09.973000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"By assuming that we can be selected from infinite set with randomness, we are assuming something that cannot happen. Ass",hold,decrease,False,True,15.2971,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T22:13:57.762000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Probably, but I don't know. + care to provide the list? +If you want to watch the debate, it's here: +https://www.yout",decrease,decrease,True,True,3859.8811,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T23:06:05.035000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've been working a little on a draft (which I'm not gonna disclose) of ""the question [you] should have asked"". But I'm ",flip,decrease,False,True,44.7059,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-08-02T03:58:13.891000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"This seems to be about US heat waves, not world average temperature.",decrease,decrease,True,True,687.5791,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-22T02:19:18.816000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Good question. For vaccines or origin?,hold,hold,True,True,1190.6807,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-15T23:55:45.096000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I hope it is clear that I used the same Tree and Restriction approach in my market as I used here to get 52%. +I am 98% ",decrease,decrease,True,True,98.9993,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T07:36:43.377000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""Does anyone actually feel led astray?"" Yes. Mathematical problems are allowed to have an infinite number of people, eve",decrease,hold,False,True,1361.1311,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T05:15:03.272000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,It was like five brand new accounts that all threw all their mana on No all at once. I'm so confused if this wasn't insi,flip,decrease,False,True,1590.3784,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-05-07T17:06:46.366000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Given the statement that it is not highest for that month, It might be sensible to point out that summer months rarely h",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T17:24:34.872000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,Okay. I'm assuming you can't control for the politics of the parents.,flip,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-03T20:21:29.904000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Chen is totally December 16th onset. At least 3 DRASTIC members agree to that. That's probably > 3 weeks after the spill,hold,increase,False,True,1217.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T17:30:44.130000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"If top2 positions of each side were not Holding shares, then the market would be lower than 50%. +This 90% you see on th",decrease,decrease,True,True,797.1382,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-31T19:19:18.873000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I was strong NO until I watched the debate. I am pretty surprised at Rootclaim presentation. +I expected it to be very m",increase,decrease,False,True,30.1183,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T00:47:32.166000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think the problem still stands with a countably infinite set too: +Let's say you were to assign every single person in",decrease,hold,False,True,118.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T02:15:17.275000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Isn't what you like to call "" +the multiple-stage fallacy +"" just a special case of what Nate has called ""Heroic Bayesia",flip,hold,False,True,155.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-19T11:05:33.523000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"what if there is no pool of people, but robots are Created for the game as it goes. Get rid of that ""picking process"" an",hold,increase,False,True,1869.8495,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:30:07.477000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,I'm gonna sleep and I fully expect to wake up to complete fucking chaos,decrease,decrease,True,True,2446.5071,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:27:27.505000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"even if it's not up to date, that's still important evidence lol",flip,hold,False,True,2866.6747,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-12T23:29:18.897000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",But aren't you someone who believes natural origin is far more likely or at the very least more likely than not? Yet you,decrease,decrease,True,True,2113.0748,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T07:16:04.601000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I wonder if the judges noticed that rootclaim's reference 1 (TopHap/proCoV2) excluded the mutation considered most likel,hold,decrease,False,True,2111.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-25T04:11:23.604000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"It's not technically enough to resolve this market, that's true, but previously Scott Aaronson has bet the value of his ",increase,increase,True,True,6710.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T23:39:14.029000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","it's in a comment I just posted in this thread... +https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-bsp9000-win-the-rootcl",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-01-03T01:36:29.007000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,Equivalent market but with NASA data:,increase,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-07T16:28:57.086000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"I think re-resolution might also be possible in that case, but I'm not sure if that's preferred. +Another question: what",decrease,decrease,True,True,96.1013,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:37:04.670000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Not for me! The thing I was confident in was 'p(high-spank bucket|female) < p(high spank bucket|male)', and not as much",flip,decrease,False,True,2866.6747,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:19:52.295000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,I mean boys are absolutely spanked more than girls. 90% for Aella's sample not having some crazy wrong result seemed lik,flip,increase,False,True,460.6513,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:49:55.016000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,(I'm hedging because I'm worried I missed something and the new probability is correct. Maybe the old one was just overc,flip,decrease,False,True,3487.4203,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T06:05:37.341000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Daniel Reeves clarification is that the infinite case is the exact same rules as the finite case. +The context of the cl",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-13T15:00:47.852000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"The outlook might change drastically based on July data, so I will bet half my bankroll for this market now when it look",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T22:28:17.400000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I gather from the Wikipedia page that anthropics is working backwards from, perhaps perfect knowledge of the system rule",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:57:03.833000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think you should weight by both multiplied, right? I read it but there's way too many comments, maybe you can point me",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T03:41:06.023000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Looks like I won't be buying much more so here's my YES case: +Polymarket is at 78c +YES is the simple, obvious answer ",decrease,increase,False,True,27422.6095,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-31T20:14:57.520000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I agree their process seems good. It's basically just bayesian updating. +I think what I'm actually surprised about is ",increase,decrease,False,True,30.1183,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-22T17:01:15.499000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Honestly, it really feels like you, +, are doing everything possible to weasel out of the situation. Yes, you can write",hold,decrease,False,True,1241.1311,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-20T15:14:18.763000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,The difference between the two is what matters and this is something I did think about a long time ago (at the time I tr,hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T05:08:56.011000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I'd expect misbehavior and cultural sanction of spanking it to be multiplicative, not additive, and at any rate I did a ",flip,decrease,False,True,2866.6747,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:22:46.052000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,Aella should absolutely start trading and watch them go mad,increase,increase,True,True,2000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T19:38:12.028000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I am genuinely confused by this market. It's obviously ~50%.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-08T00:12:00.728000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Yeah, China has switched from market origin to anywhere outside of China. The difference is that if you are in China and",hold,increase,False,True,2673.0748,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T22:43:29.406000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"FAQ3 just should not exist, as it contradicts the whole setting of the game. It introduces RUNNING OUT OF PEOPLE, which ",increase,increase,True,True,127.2895,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T10:52:49.847000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",It seems to me that lab-leak people viewed Rootclaim's arguments as exemplary and persuasive before the debate happened.,increase,decrease,False,True,1.8617,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T07:27:45.703000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Of course it is 1/36 if the killer is prevented from getting his blood. As +you have pointed out +, the question is whe",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T21:37:08.937000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"there is nothing bad in being pedantic. If opposing side decides it is the way, you can't silence them. +The whole point",decrease,hold,False,True,802.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:02:38.102000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Have kids. +They are too old for spanking. +Learn that they are into Manifold and Aella +Get all my friends to fill out ",flip,flip,True,True,3200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T15:15:18.846000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"There is an infinite number of games that never end and they outnumber the games that do end. For every game that ends, ",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-08-17T21:39:51.889000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"I agree that different datasets make a difference, but if you assume it's normal, 99% and 80% correspond to a z score of",hold,hold,True,True,9926.2443,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-14T16:24:49.497000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm curious what axioms you are working from, perhaps you have said them elsewhere. Some of your comments seem to be a f",hold,decrease,False,True,11926.9539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:36:05.615000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,@semi play along and cancel some of the big orders?,hold,decrease,False,True,5464.2618,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T11:35:11.330000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,if you say 0*inf that means you skipped like 80% of the market discussion. The rate of death of each case is multiplied ,decrease,decrease,True,True,740.1382,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-26T16:33:33.424000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,So your model was predicting at one point that the last couple of days would be even hotter? Interesting. I would have t,decrease,decrease,True,True,400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T15:27:23.182000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,I made a mirror for anyone who's concerned about this one resolving N/A and wants to bet on the actual question. Also be,flip,hold,False,True,7832.7383,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T10:50:11.050000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Please add 48F Dec 10 onset that is NOT linked to the market. I am sure you must be aware of it. +https://x.com/Engineer",decrease,flip,False,True,24726.9473,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:28:40.017000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,This post was fact checked TRUE by REAL son-spanking PATRIOTS!,increase,increase,True,True,19.4454,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T20:41:10.258000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I have already explained that mistake. You do the same mistake as in FAQ3. When you run out of people you basically adde,increase,decrease,False,True,119.2895,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T15:42:29.342000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,This is also measuring whether women or men are more likely to ~report~ being spanked frequently. Rates of perception o,flip,decrease,False,True,439.1894,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T19:31:37.057000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I failed math in high school, and never got back to it, so the deep dive concepts miss me completely. I am however decen",increase,decrease,False,True,1070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T18:21:21.722000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Woo-hoo! Discussion is ongoing in the Discord: +https://discord.gg/RtM3QU4n +There's an unofficial channel for anyone a",increase,hold,False,True,7374.1214,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-01-15T08:43:30.858000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"we are early on, i hope that betting will be more tempting when we get data from some '23 months",hold,hold,True,True,151.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T09:16:49.959000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I only read parts of the paper. Does it actually +prove + that a problem has to be solved via divide-and-conquer? Becau",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T03:21:09.046000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,I have read the paper. The authors made it very clear that Lemma 3.1 is proved under an assumption and explained why an ,hold,hold,True,True,4962.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T20:29:41.987000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I know some of you are way ahead of me but the +Bartha & Hitchcock paper + is kind of amazing. Everything is exactly th",hold,increase,False,True,12454.1214,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:15:18.845000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,that's not for this specific subgroup? I'd be very confused if p(spanking|female) > p(spanking|male) for the entire samp,flip,hold,False,True,3611.0913,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T19:41:42.435000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"According to my calculation that gave 0.521887...: +Deathrate at infinite case would be 0. Nobody dies in the never-endi",decrease,hold,False,True,797.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..398cf87847d46a33bae36840dda10acd5cd61d08 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,116 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T15:27:23.182000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,I made a mirror for anyone who's concerned about this one resolving N/A and wants to bet on the actual question. Also be,flip,hold,False,True,7832.7383,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T01:35:27.557000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Intuitively, the infinite bankroll case has to account for the probability-measure-zero-but-not-impossible case of losin",increase,decrease,False,True,140.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T17:24:34.872000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,Okay. I'm assuming you can't control for the politics of the parents.,flip,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T06:44:42.301000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"note 3 changes the question so that it's the limit not the infinite case, so I think it should be resolved to 1/36",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:21:50.836000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,My current best theory is that these accounts are buying low to manipulate the price so they can scare traders on Polyma,flip,decrease,False,True,560.6513,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T06:42:59.941000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"consider taking the limit of the conditional probability, Given you are chosen, what are the odds you are chosen for the",increase,flip,False,True,9226.9539,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T22:53:45.057000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I’ve already spent 800+ mana. You’re still the only major YES holder. Kudos to you if you win but shame on the little br,increase,decrease,False,True,836.4095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T05:34:03.728000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,when do you plan on resolving?,increase,hold,False,True,560.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:02:38.102000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Have kids. +They are too old for spanking. +Learn that they are into Manifold and Aella +Get all my friends to fill out ",flip,flip,True,True,3200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T02:15:17.275000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Isn't what you like to call "" +the multiple-stage fallacy +"" just a special case of what Nate has called ""Heroic Bayesia",flip,hold,False,True,155.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T16:38:58.467000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I would be glad if you explain this ""not because of SIA"" part to your teammates, because most of them (including creator",decrease,hold,False,True,852.5097,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T13:47:41.132000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"case is a single legal game within the setting. For example, the situation of game being finished in 3rd round due to sn",decrease,hold,False,True,740.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:56:25.003000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,This should be allowed and encouraged as long as it is done with bought mana and not startup bonus. You paid for that ma,increase,hold,False,True,3880.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T22:37:00.828000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Emailing a sequence to the the US database for sequences right after it was assembled and when work is still under way t,increase,increase,True,True,1684.7112,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T20:20:23.287000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,he's using a different baseline and dataset that's how he gets a different conclusion than the plain English version of ,hold,hold,True,True,52.9799,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T06:47:59.302000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Right, it depends how we generalize it. In the version I relayed above, you pick 1 out of 10 on heads and 9 out 10 on ta",hold,hold,True,True,3415.9628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-15T23:10:39.431000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Come to think of it, I'd love to confirm that + and + and + agree with my answer to your probability problem. Let me ",hold,hold,True,True,3415.9628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-18T17:36:27.130000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Thanks for the clarification. In my opinion enough time has passed for Scott to update the website if he wanted to, but ",hold,decrease,False,True,5577.4493,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T13:51:42.536000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"You can't just assume that the expected value of that is zero. +NO, i don't evwn have to operate with both inf and infsm",decrease,increase,False,True,740.1382,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T22:28:17.400000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I gather from the Wikipedia page that anthropics is working backwards from, perhaps perfect knowledge of the system rule",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T23:48:46.780000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Please feel free to Google it or continue to parade your ignorance. AFAIK the person making the incorrect claim also has,decrease,increase,False,True,24476.9473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T05:38:05.287000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I don't love having this much in any one market, put a limit order for no at 70% if anyone wants to take this dirty cryp",flip,decrease,False,True,2192.3784,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T22:12:28.051000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",That's something to infer a probability about from the language used also.,hold,hold,True,True,2192.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T15:17:44.132000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"just out of interest, what happens when you make the probability 3/4 instead of 1/36?",increase,hold,False,True,15108.3935,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-28T13:12:40.034000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,It might be easier for you to find a respected complexity theorist to say that this paper is not worth considering and g,hold,decrease,False,True,13782.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T11:12:52.413000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"At some point I will either throw Snake Eyes, and the current group dies, or I will run out of people. In both cases I s",decrease,decrease,True,True,1869.0981,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T20:07:57.184000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","wow, yeah! Can we throw in money/mana somewhere to have him evaluate the args in a public doc or video of some kind? ve",decrease,increase,False,True,57.9621,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:57:03.833000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think you should weight by both multiplied, right? I read it but there's way too many comments, maybe you can point me",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T02:47:27.023000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Copying my comment: +What's wild to me is that +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory +",increase,decrease,False,True,10.9163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-14T16:00:26.177000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Well from the synopsis of the arguments present at the +Wikipedia +page I am inclined towards the 1/3 answer. I shoul",hold,decrease,False,True,11926.9539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T14:33:55.505000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",There are multiple lines of evidence that support cases existed before HSM. Getting ridiculous Bayes Factor using a hypo,decrease,increase,False,True,24476.9473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:25:13.475000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"actually no, don't watch. I don't need another NO bettor who would steal gains from me after understanding SIA is a brok",decrease,decrease,True,True,797.1382,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:49:55.016000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,(I'm hedging because I'm worried I missed something and the new probability is correct. Maybe the old one was just overc,flip,decrease,False,True,3487.4203,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T18:21:51.915000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I think they covered this in the debate. Peter's argument was that there are quite a few virology labs in China that cou,decrease,hold,False,True,5687.5129,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:45:48.272000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I'm fascinated by how this market was originally at ~85% and has now stabilized at ~60% after all the spam, despite (as ",flip,decrease,False,True,4149.9183,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-26T00:39:25.312000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"The jump in probability was me betting based on the Hausfather article, and it did reflect my expectation that September",decrease,decrease,True,True,753.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-30T23:26:11.966000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I guess we need a market to bet on which lab it is: +https://manifold.markets/PeterMillerc030/if-covid-is-a-lab-leak-whi",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-30T21:10:00.941000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"While not a proof, monte carlo simulation seems to show consistent 1/36 P(death | chosen) from the perspective of one pe",increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-29T09:10:29.744000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","From the Rootclaim site, opacity and delay is at odds with Rootclaim’s mission, so hopefully this is reconsidered. +The ",hold,decrease,False,True,3047.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T11:09:15.565000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,It definitely alters the odds that she doesn't preregister what correlations will be made into markets.,flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T05:30:38.309000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,would anyone like to buy bigly yes shares at 45%?,decrease,increase,False,True,17385.7061,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-30T02:52:09.070000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"to confirm, is there an infinite number of people in the pool, or is there N, where N is large? these lead to the two di",flip,decrease,False,True,55.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T21:36:13.347000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I was going to write something up just to remember what my initial thoughts were, regardless, it was ultimately function",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:51:38.081000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"if you all """"aren't bots"""" where are you coming from?",flip,hold,False,True,2740.6349,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-25T09:24:08.936000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I know that you are a junior complexity theorist but computational complexity covers many areas, and it seems that you d",hold,decrease,False,True,13682.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-22T18:05:07.718000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Wikipedia claims P vs NP is unsolved. +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem +Is that enough for a negativ",increase,decrease,False,True,3010.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T15:21:54.239000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I ran a billion games: 75.00015132591597577%,increase,increase,True,True,240.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T22:31:43.012000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"For the limit thing, I basically agree with what you have to say, and that the way you describe is the correct way to ta",hold,decrease,False,True,768.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:55:08.164000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,I say we keep the price at 69%,flip,hold,False,True,860.6513,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-16T05:47:08.605000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,if we ignore the word that causes the difference we will get each the number each one predicts. Simulation is not an uni,decrease,hold,False,True,98.9993,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T22:21:25.343000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",That's a terribly flawed argument given DEFUSE.,decrease,flip,False,True,26966.0404,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T18:48:20.826000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The simulation has a maximum number of rounds parameter that + increases to look at the pattern that emerges. +But I do",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-08T10:39:34.556000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I wrote up what I think is a complete mathematical proof that in the iterative snake-eyes game ""the probability that you",hold,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T06:05:37.341000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Daniel Reeves clarification is that the infinite case is the exact same rules as the finite case. +The context of the cl",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T22:56:42.011000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",You’re not that interesting. Sorry to break it to you.,increase,hold,False,True,836.4095,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T16:33:15.559000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Pinging also + and + , I really don't think everyone agrees on the finite case. I personally think it could be interpr",flip,decrease,False,True,178.5206,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T20:32:17.414000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I'm hoping he just gives a number in his usual course of blogging, because apparently he was + too expensive + for Rootc",increase,decrease,False,True,14417.3371,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T09:22:31.257000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"since when is your tree approach ""mathematically correct""",increase,decrease,False,True,14608.3935,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T21:10:10.655000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"3) ok, one paper per side might be less confusing at the end, but you cannot define how much math is used by your oppon",decrease,hold,False,True,797.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-17T00:12:18.550000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Perhaps I will bring a covid infected raccoon dog to the debate as proof.,increase,decrease,False,True,198.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T07:27:45.703000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Of course it is 1/36 if the killer is prevented from getting his blood. As +you have pointed out +, the question is whe",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-28T21:30:15.428000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"If your challenge is to reformulate the market to get answer ~1/2, that's easy: +Market A: perform the game for N rounds",flip,decrease,False,True,681.3714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T00:26:19.756000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"SIA is nonsense which always causes paradoxes, so should not ever be considered a ""school"" or be paid attention to.",hold,increase,False,True,563.2895,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T23:44:39.815000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Notification about potential conflict of interests. +I am the biggest No holder with 23658 potential payout (second plac",hold,decrease,False,True,2647.8555,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T08:38:08.323000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"One way to think about this is to ask what we mean by ""guaranteed to be chosen"". I take it to mean that before the game",hold,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T00:47:32.166000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think the problem still stands with a countably infinite set too: +Let's say you were to assign every single person in",decrease,hold,False,True,118.9272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T15:48:25.255000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,The summation of the mutually exclusive P(death_n) would reconstitute the full P(death) if they were all conditioned on ,hold,decrease,False,True,13976.9539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T23:06:05.035000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've been working a little on a draft (which I'm not gonna disclose) of ""the question [you] should have asked"". But I'm ",flip,decrease,False,True,44.7059,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T22:27:46.137000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"you cannot take a limit of a thing, which is already not representative of a game! All your general cases have a chance ",increase,decrease,False,True,119.2895,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-27T21:59:08.491000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Feb 2016 was really high in NASA's data which I don't think people are considering. I think the market is just anticipat,increase,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:38:44.780000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Apparently they will donate it to the Ukrainian army. +I did not have the destiny of Europe being decided by the spankin",flip,hold,False,True,5300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T09:18:37.640000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"So, some meta-analysis. +The market creator is a YES bettor with 3643 mana payout position. All his ""clarifications"" ar",decrease,decrease,True,True,740.1382,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T02:52:48.295000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,https://www.unh.edu/ccrc/sites/default/files/media/2022-02/corporal-punishment-current-rates-from-a-national-survey.pdf ,increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T22:24:14.045000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"final group is killed no matter what the dice roll is +This violates the independence of the dice. +No. not the final gr",increase,increase,True,True,119.2895,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-16T21:11:10.107000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,The argument for yes is just wrong because it’s not conditioning on all the available information,flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-11T13:33:38.575000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Edit: Global data for NOAA is due out in 3 days (got mixed up again with U.S. and global) +I don't expect August to make",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T16:31:10.745000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"it is neither said nor given to be random/uniform picking. The best we can do, we should work with the fact that you are",decrease,hold,False,True,822.5097,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T20:01:16.644000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""But first I think we should finish getting on the same page about the probability in the 2-round, 3-person case. I get ",hold,decrease,False,True,400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-25T04:11:23.604000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"It's not technically enough to resolve this market, that's true, but previously Scott Aaronson has bet the value of his ",increase,increase,True,True,6710.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-05T06:25:55.925000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I don't understand why you are making a billion unrelated markets and problem instead of just asking some mathematicians,hold,decrease,False,True,1380.1311,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6a1822c2cbb63d7bf6e5cda630bba32e7446be3a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,118 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T10:32:01.444000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,test comment to see if this page is responsive (for another market),increase,hold,False,True,280.1104,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-26T16:33:33.424000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,So your model was predicting at one point that the last couple of days would be even hotter? Interesting. I would have t,flip,decrease,False,True,400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-31T19:19:18.873000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I was strong NO until I watched the debate. I am pretty surprised at Rootclaim presentation. +I expected it to be very m",increase,decrease,False,True,30.1183,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T02:47:27.023000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Copying my comment: +What's wild to me is that +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory +",increase,decrease,False,True,10.9163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:55:08.164000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,I say we keep the price at 69%,flip,hold,False,True,860.6513,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:11:47.373000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"""Mom can we have the survey results?"" +""We have survey results at home.""",increase,hold,False,True,98.7962,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T14:58:46.676000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"+1 +Like, will 5% difference count as a NO? Or 3%?",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T14:14:11.983000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",If someone wants to hedge w.r.t the N/A resolution:,hold,decrease,False,True,413.719,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T02:15:17.275000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Isn't what you like to call "" +the multiple-stage fallacy +"" just a special case of what Nate has called ""Heroic Bayesia",flip,hold,False,True,155.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T11:09:15.565000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,It definitely alters the odds that she doesn't preregister what correlations will be made into markets.,flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T12:54:58.951000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I can see where you're coming from. If you only take that one sentence in isolation and interpret it to mean ""do not con",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T09:20:43.985000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Hi all, just to let you know I've revised my presentation on ""no"" (making it shorter and, I think, a lot clearer). Ple",increase,increase,True,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-08-14T14:59:52.786000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Wow, what a difference in confidence. Edit: They may still be using a slightly different methodology, I never looked int",hold,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T08:57:45.706000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""Currently every method gives >=0.5."" what's wrong with saying that you see exactly one dice roll, which has 1/36 chance",increase,hold,False,True,14608.3935,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T06:48:20.719000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"but if you actually have an infinite number of people and will never have everyone survive then it's 1/2. +The odds of e",hold,increase,False,True,8526.9539,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-26T21:03:19.664000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"will there be a time limit on that? +The most likely outcome for these sorts of things is always that the relevant peopl",decrease,decrease,True,True,5165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T10:08:58.728000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",How did finding 7 in Gilles' report make you feel?,hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T23:48:11.433000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I've seen enough poll answers and comments to show that the level of unanimity for non-objection to resolving 50% in the,hold,hold,True,True,1865.7229,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T09:37:34.417000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The game is not required to end, and therefor might not end +After you do a proper infinite sum and weight everything by",decrease,increase,False,True,740.1382,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:00:15.798000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I Hope + is enjoying all the new trader bonuses she must be getting from this market",decrease,hold,False,True,97.7196,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T22:28:17.400000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I gather from the Wikipedia page that anthropics is working backwards from, perhaps perfect knowledge of the system rule",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T22:49:30.710000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"it could also be a friend from another party, who gives up his intention to return the mana. +Even closing the trading w",hold,decrease,False,True,2647.8555,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T05:20:28.308000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Well due to being the first one to see the irrational market movement, I'm now suddenly very invested in this resolving ",flip,increase,False,True,1591.3784,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T09:40:05.309000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"since when is your tree approach ""mathematically correct"" +it does not cause internal contradictions like 0.2=0.25. The ",decrease,increase,False,True,740.1382,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T19:58:01.032000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Okay so I watched all the debates and I thought they were great, but honestly I still don't have a strong opinion on if ",increase,decrease,False,True,14417.3371,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-21T07:54:30.478000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Doh, I just now discovered that the trading history tab here is not showing me all the trades! Presumably they can be fo",hold,decrease,False,True,4464.1214,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-02T16:48:06.016000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,People still get fooled by martingales in 2023 xD,decrease,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T01:28:50.272000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I see - thanks for the calculation. +So there's a 17/18 chance no one dies, and a 1/18 chance that you have a 1/36 chanc",decrease,decrease,True,True,118.9272,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:57:03.833000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think you should weight by both multiplied, right? I read it but there's way too many comments, maybe you can point me",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-17T00:12:18.550000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Perhaps I will bring a covid infected raccoon dog to the debate as proof.,increase,decrease,False,True,198.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-27T01:11:00.327000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,the modal outcome for things like this is that we never hear anything of note ever again. So does this market just never,decrease,decrease,True,True,5165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-30T06:08:39.084000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The question is isomorphic to the Shooting-Room Paradox described in Bartha, P., Hitchcock, C. The Shooting-Room Paradox",hold,hold,True,True,17554.9539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:49:55.016000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,(I'm hedging because I'm worried I missed something and the new probability is correct. Maybe the old one was just overc,flip,decrease,False,True,3487.4203,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T16:43:01.883000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","In this case getting odds ratio of 10000 on an incomplete, biased data curated by a likely culpable party, using argumen",decrease,increase,False,True,24476.9473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-21T01:23:16.784000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks! Good analysis here. My understanding of the strongest case for NO is to interpret ""at some point we roll snake e",decrease,hold,False,True,4915.9628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:45:48.272000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I'm fascinated by how this market was originally at ~85% and has now stabilized at ~60% after all the spam, despite (as ",flip,decrease,False,True,4149.9183,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T22:25:30.553000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"We have a boy, his aim is 0.5 (misses half of shots). What is the probability that he hits the aim if he has 2 bullets? ",hold,decrease,False,True,12726.9539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T22:53:45.057000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I’ve already spent 800+ mana. You’re still the only major YES holder. Kudos to you if you win but shame on the little br,increase,decrease,False,True,836.4095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:42:45.182000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,could you please read my Coin Toss market and the comments there (especially Red and Blue robots and dialog with Primer),decrease,hold,False,True,797.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T16:11:44.641000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"A guy is signing up for a bunch of new accounts and getting 500 free mana on each, then betting it all on no. The mods a",flip,decrease,False,True,1501.8708,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-23T18:11:53.357000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I post these mostly so that people can see how commentor actions/position in the market can either reflect their belief ,hold,hold,True,True,15153.9539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T21:36:13.347000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I was going to write something up just to remember what my initial thoughts were, regardless, it was ultimately function",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-30T02:52:09.070000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"to confirm, is there an infinite number of people in the pool, or is there N, where N is large? these lead to the two di",flip,decrease,False,True,55.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T06:26:51.519000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Begin the paragraph with "">"" Without quotes",increase,UNKNOWN,False,True,4341.75,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:50:26.694000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"if these are actually crypto bots, they're probably not price sensitive, so can we all just independently decide to move",flip,hold,False,True,2740.6349,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T20:13:00.842000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"I think he did mean #3 out of those, based on his response here: +https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/16912251655379681",hold,hold,True,True,74.8324,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:57:35.772000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,where are you getting all these google accounts,flip,hold,False,True,7280.6173,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T20:32:17.414000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I'm hoping he just gives a number in his usual course of blogging, because apparently he was + too expensive + for Rootc",increase,decrease,False,True,14417.3371,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T20:49:04.935000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,As to the question whether a casino would welcome a Martingale bettor: I believe your assertions assume that the Marting,hold,hold,True,True,8726.9539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:05:23.456000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,This website is deranged (affectionate),decrease,hold,False,True,1650.936,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T17:26:25.891000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"if you both agree, this 👆picture should be added to the Fintan's writeup to show the convergence",decrease,hold,False,True,797.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T18:32:49.079000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"since in every game the last round contains more people than all other rounds put together, you are most likely to be ch",hold,decrease,False,True,3325.9628,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T16:33:15.559000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Pinging also + and + , I really don't think everyone agrees on the finite case. I personally think it could be interpr",flip,decrease,False,True,178.5206,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T12:01:28.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I have to ask, does the Rootclaim method of analysis (I think of it as ""Heroic Bayesian Analysis"") actually work? Basica",increase,decrease,False,True,1.8617,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T11:29:20.303000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,yea. The market deserves to be in a newsletter and get its page in Manifold history.,decrease,hold,False,True,740.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T15:21:54.239000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I ran a billion games: 75.00015132591597577%,increase,increase,True,True,240.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T03:41:06.023000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Looks like I won't be buying much more so here's my YES case: +Polymarket is at 78c +YES is the simple, obvious answer ",decrease,increase,False,True,27422.6095,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:12:08.552000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,apparently this survey is outdated,increase,decrease,False,True,19.6051,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-05T06:27:56.373000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Still not seeing you betting this up heavily. What's stopping you?,decrease,decrease,True,True,14539.769,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-29T19:44:38.225000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",IDK guys I feel like it's fine for them to wait a bit to release the outcome. Maybe they want to do some fancy PR thing ,hold,hold,True,True,2217.7419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-22T17:01:15.499000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Honestly, it really feels like you, +, are doing everything possible to weasel out of the situation. Yes, you can write",decrease,decrease,True,True,1241.1311,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-28T21:30:15.428000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"If your challenge is to reformulate the market to get answer ~1/2, that's easy: +Market A: perform the game for N rounds",flip,decrease,False,True,681.3714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-30T16:50:24.014000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","It seems more likely to post with a location tag at a market than a hospital, so this concern can go in the other direct",increase,decrease,False,True,921.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T08:05:55.011000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Just adding an additional comment to ensure you see my edit above. Apologies for the confusion. Planning to NA like this,hold,decrease,False,True,1865.7229,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T23:48:46.780000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Please feel free to Google it or continue to parade your ignorance. AFAIK the person making the incorrect claim also has,decrease,increase,False,True,24476.9473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-05T23:49:06.243000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Thanks for the thoughtful response. +I don't know why I would need to ""see someone"" for my ""breakdown"", given that you'r",hold,decrease,False,True,1217.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-23T18:09:25.293000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"That sounds like a different genre: trick questions! Reminds me of +https://xkcd.com/169/ +Anyway, thanks for the nudge",hold,hold,True,True,27626.6354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-15T14:00:55.754000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"See the discussion in the replies to +'s terms about the version to use. (Again, I'm hiding redundant comments or comme",increase,hold,False,True,4205.9628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-16T18:15:48.053000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"It is buried in the comments now but I will reiterate it here, and probably should add it to my write up. The condition",increase,increase,True,True,12226.9539,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T23:06:05.035000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've been working a little on a draft (which I'm not gonna disclose) of ""the question [you] should have asked"". But I'm ",flip,decrease,False,True,44.7059,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T11:15:44.374000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Oh yes sorry I missed that - I think I now see why the 1/36 is probably right. +A lot of the problem stems from the way ",decrease,decrease,True,True,118.9272,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T22:22:31.712000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"But hardlimiting contradicts the problem statement. The limiting by N is incorrect! +The general case is always ending w",increase,increase,True,True,119.2895,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:02:38.102000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Have kids. +They are too old for spanking. +Learn that they are into Manifold and Aella +Get all my friends to fill out ",flip,flip,True,True,3200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T03:24:04.956000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I wrote a monte carlo simulation in python which always outputs ~1/36 for any N value I plug in. +import random +survive",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-07T23:38:25.770000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","As stated above, it is obvious that China has not shared as much information as they could on this issue. I've said that",hold,decrease,False,True,1217.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-24T09:42:30.075000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,I'm just glad that I have a place to dump my extra mana,increase,hold,False,True,1050.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T00:48:03.257000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",You could also hypothesize that it's a US bioweapon launched at the Huanan market to be maximally confusing. That's why ,hold,increase,False,True,1217.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-25T23:57:58.625000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"(though I guess either way I should +wait until they release the December data +)",hold,decrease,False,True,753.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-16T21:11:10.107000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,The argument for yes is just wrong because it’s not conditioning on all the available information,flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:27:23.408000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I think that's reasonable. However, if the fact that they are liberal is the reason for a surprising result, and that's ",decrease,decrease,True,True,18100.9353,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e6eec797acd17cf34e2cd14980d8584ec91bb9bb --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,109 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T15:32:35.420000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","It's true for Bayesian analysis done correctly and refusing all temptations, just like for reference class forecasting d",increase,hold,False,True,1875.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T05:08:56.011000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I'd expect misbehavior and cultural sanction of spanking it to be multiplicative, not additive, and at any rate I did a ",flip,decrease,False,True,2866.6747,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T05:20:28.308000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Well due to being the first one to see the irrational market movement, I'm now suddenly very invested in this resolving ",increase,increase,True,True,1591.3784,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:32:58.755000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Over the last hour, the price on polymarket has fallen from 86% to 75%. I don't see what could have caused that except t",increase,decrease,False,True,860.6513,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T16:11:44.641000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"A guy is signing up for a bunch of new accounts and getting 500 free mana on each, then betting it all on no. The mods a",flip,decrease,False,True,1501.8708,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T12:47:54.100000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think FAQ8 changes the answer from clearly >50% to clearly 1/36, which isn't great. Prior to FAQ8 I think it makes mor",increase,decrease,False,True,140.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T23:06:05.035000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've been working a little on a draft (which I'm not gonna disclose) of ""the question [you] should have asked"". But I'm ",flip,decrease,False,True,44.7059,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T18:19:21.469000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,i really need to stop putting money into this its draining my mana reserve with no resolution in sight.,hold,decrease,False,True,18358.3935,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:27:27.505000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"even if it's not up to date, that's still important evidence lol",flip,hold,False,True,2866.6747,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:45:48.272000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I'm fascinated by how this market was originally at ~85% and has now stabilized at ~60% after all the spam, despite (as ",flip,decrease,False,True,4149.9183,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T07:24:03.277000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I'm not citing him as authority. I am showing why he is a fraud. I'm sure you'll convince some idiots on here that it is,decrease,increase,False,True,7343.1936,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:21:03.465000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I wouldn't have had a clue, this is reassuring.",increase,decrease,False,True,350.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T13:59:11.107000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Regarding whether a finite casino should welcome an infinite Martingale bettor: The casino will not run out of money as ,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-30T16:50:24.014000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","It seems more likely to post with a location tag at a market than a hospital, so this concern can go in the other direct",increase,decrease,False,True,921.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-02T21:46:36.577000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","DISCLAIMER: THIS ANALYSIS IS SOLELY ABOUT THE DEBATE. NOT MY OPINIONS +just watched a lot of the first debate. Miller is",hold,increase,False,True,206.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T00:17:41.946000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","The coincidence that a lab leak in Wuhan would show up first at Huanan market is on the order of a 1 in 10,000 thing. +A",decrease,increase,False,True,26966.0404,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T22:25:30.553000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"We have a boy, his aim is 0.5 (misses half of shots). What is the probability that he hits the aim if he has 2 bullets? ",hold,decrease,False,True,12726.9539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T07:27:45.703000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Of course it is 1/36 if the killer is prevented from getting his blood. As +you have pointed out +, the question is whe",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T07:30:04.519000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",The first draft was ready on Feb 2nd way before any minds were supposedly changed. So your argument would make sense if ,decrease,increase,False,True,7343.1936,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T05:30:38.309000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,would anyone like to buy bigly yes shares at 45%?,decrease,increase,False,True,17385.7061,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T16:33:15.559000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Pinging also + and + , I really don't think everyone agrees on the finite case. I personally think it could be interpr",flip,decrease,False,True,178.5206,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T07:42:01.081000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","It looks like you used 15*333 for the environmental samples+HSM origin, and he used 640 for all the location data. +Look",hold,decrease,False,True,1217.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:38:43.628000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Disagree, if you successfully keep the information private it's great.",flip,decrease,False,True,2866.6747,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T16:38:58.467000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I would be glad if you explain this ""not because of SIA"" part to your teammates, because most of them (including creator",decrease,hold,False,True,852.5097,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T12:29:09.571000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I've absolutely seen people end up ruined by learning about ""reference class forecasting"". They think they can pick any",increase,decrease,False,True,1675.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T07:40:44.637000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,🤣 I blame dynamic page loading,hold,hold,True,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-01T01:08:31.079000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Since + has responded with criticisms to my first argument, I have created a market to crowdsource the fact-checking. I",decrease,increase,False,True,2453.0748,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T22:08:57.735000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",do we know if the judges are telling them the verdict early?,decrease,decrease,True,True,3147.3809,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T17:21:42.864000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Oooh, interesting phenomenon is that young women are substantially more liberal than young men... so the most liberal pr",flip,flip,True,True,305.8421,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T19:14:10.676000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,maybe. But this kind of reasoning is usually too clever by half.,increase,decrease,False,True,18100.9353,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T18:26:55.673000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I believe (but not entirely sure because I haven't read all the comments and write-ups relating to this gigantic market),decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-02T21:04:13.521000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I guess I can make a few more comments regarding the specific papers we were discussing. +First, I should note that Root",hold,increase,False,True,1217.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-30T02:52:09.070000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"to confirm, is there an infinite number of people in the pool, or is there N, where N is large? these lead to the two di",flip,decrease,False,True,55.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T18:21:51.915000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I think they covered this in the debate. Peter's argument was that there are quite a few virology labs in China that cou,decrease,hold,False,True,5687.5129,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-12T23:29:18.897000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",But aren't you someone who believes natural origin is far more likely or at the very least more likely than not? Yet you,decrease,decrease,True,True,2113.0748,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T14:58:46.676000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"+1 +Like, will 5% difference count as a NO? Or 3%?",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T17:09:10.838000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",This is sampling for two coronaviruses and a filovirus at exactly the time the outbreak was identified.,hold,increase,False,True,1317.7112,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-14T14:39:10.255000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Made a mistake with 1. +I still dont agree with ""(M-S)/2 < M/36 is the same as M-S < M/16,"" but I do agree that (M-S)/2 ",increase,decrease,False,True,12028.3935,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T11:12:52.413000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"At some point I will either throw Snake Eyes, and the current group dies, or I will run out of people. In both cases I s",decrease,decrease,True,True,1869.0981,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:57:03.833000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think you should weight by both multiplied, right? I read it but there's way too many comments, maybe you can point me",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2023-11-29T15:52:38.454000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Also, there's this: +https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.05689.pdf +, by the same authors. I think they wrote the paper based on",hold,decrease,False,True,1390.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T15:48:45.850000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I think the causal story that you're telling is reasonable. However, I think there's probably a strong correlation betwe",flip,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:02:38.102000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Have kids. +They are too old for spanking. +Learn that they are into Manifold and Aella +Get all my friends to fill out ",flip,flip,True,True,3200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-25T22:09:57.584000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/visualizing-a-summer-of-extremes +The fifth figure, below, shows the best estimate of ",increase,increase,True,True,86.4699,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T17:24:34.872000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,Okay. I'm assuming you can't control for the politics of the parents.,flip,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-08T14:08:27.353000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"It was accidentally ambiguous very briefly and I gave the needed clarifications before anyone traded, plus I was totally",hold,hold,True,True,3454.899,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T21:08:03.971000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Aella's pretty smart, I don't think she'd only make a comment like that if NO were the correct answer. (See the last sen",flip,increase,False,True,2666.8893,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T10:41:57.632000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"The survey has already been completed, no? And sample size of 170k people, harder to rig than one the small manifold sur",increase,decrease,False,True,14291.2719,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T06:57:54.111000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not sure whether we should bring MWI into this. I'm a big fan, but this is convoluted enough as it is. Instead I'd prefe",hold,decrease,False,True,44.2672,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T11:15:44.374000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Oh yes sorry I missed that - I think I now see why the 1/36 is probably right. +A lot of the problem stems from the way ",decrease,decrease,True,True,118.9272,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-21T01:46:03.539000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"We started talking in the Discord about why N/A is so bad. Silly example: +create a market to predict aliens landing on ",decrease,decrease,True,True,4915.9628,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T06:01:15.027000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I don't think SIA vs SSA matters, as in both cases theres a singular player who plays in the first round, 2 players (the",hold,hold,True,True,15108.3935,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:38:44.780000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Apparently they will donate it to the Ukrainian army. +I did not have the destiny of Europe being decided by the spankin",flip,hold,False,True,5300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T22:43:29.406000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"FAQ3 just should not exist, as it contradicts the whole setting of the game. It introduces RUNNING OUT OF PEOPLE, which ",increase,increase,True,True,127.2895,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-08-02T03:58:13.891000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"This seems to be about US heat waves, not world average temperature.",decrease,decrease,True,True,687.5791,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-04T00:05:19.993000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"To be brutally honest, this paper isn't ""wide-spread"", and there's ""no news"" because us complexity theorists have better",increase,increase,True,True,2391.4493,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-25T22:36:26.103000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"In fact, based on eyeballing the blue graph, the bottom of the 95% interval is at ~.78 and the previous record is at ~.3",decrease,increase,False,True,910.4699,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T03:38:17.746000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,might be because many people are similarly overinvested already,increase,decrease,False,True,199.2323,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T21:16:12.134000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,you presented an extreme case.,decrease,decrease,True,True,802.1382,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T20:43:35.700000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Now that this seems to be settled, I'm reserving the right to start betting on this market 24 hours from now.",hold,hold,True,True,74.8324,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T03:41:06.023000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Looks like I won't be buying much more so here's my YES case: +Polymarket is at 78c +YES is the simple, obvious answer ",decrease,increase,False,True,27422.6095,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:15:18.845000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,that's not for this specific subgroup? I'd be very confused if p(spanking|female) > p(spanking|male) for the entire samp,flip,hold,False,True,3611.0913,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2023-12-25T11:19:24.356000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"This market should resolve to No - see +https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=3409 + which says ""I registered the domain name ",increase,increase,True,True,114.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-09-06T00:19:08.161000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,if it is cumulative... then why is it decreasing for 2016 after March?,hold,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-30T22:03:48.406000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Since the debate is over, I look forward to elaborating more on my earlier comment on why Peter's argument isn't based i",decrease,increase,False,True,2453.0748,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T02:32:06.663000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I tried a writeup against 1/36 but really the whole thing hinges on the interpretation of the problem. Aside from some ,hold,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T00:21:24.313000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Berkeley predicts much higher chance 53% if I remember right, but I didn't look at how they calculate the global tempera",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T14:45:25.319000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,New GISTEMP data is in. Anomaly for July (land+ocean) is 1.18 C. This gives me some small confidence in this type of an,increase,hold,False,True,32.9799,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T21:30:03.515000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I forced nothing in the program. I DELETED a premature ending of the program.,increase,hold,False,True,119.2895,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:45:04.675000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Ya, I'm just gonna divest from this market because I know too much about the topic and its stressing me out XD",flip,decrease,False,True,22.9769,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-16T05:47:08.605000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,if we ignore the word that causes the difference we will get each the number each one predicts. Simulation is not an uni,decrease,hold,False,True,98.9993,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T22:51:55.283000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Your high school bravado will not look good in hindsight if you lose that debate.,increase,decrease,False,True,736.4095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T20:33:28.950000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not a >2k shareholder, but these terms seem good to me. +I'm wondering how likely it is that this market resolves N/A no",flip,decrease,False,True,307.8021,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:23:27.858000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,Some people are about to get a real spanking on the leaderboards.,increase,hold,False,True,7119.0161,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T19:25:38.020000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""Always hit snake eyes"" assumes that the game that does not roll snake eyes does not exist. There is nothing that preve",hold,decrease,False,True,13976.9539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-23T06:36:39.375000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"It appears that Scott Aaronson's survey ( +https://www.scottaaronson.com/papers/pnp.pdf +) and the paper ""SAT Requires E",increase,decrease,False,True,165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-17T17:51:17.033000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"PS: To drive home the point about ""any prior"", that includes priors that put positive probability on all infinitely many",hold,hold,True,True,23907.6354,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-20T00:23:46.634000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Thanks Kongo. Let the games begin! I've copied Lorxus's terms into the market description if you want to double check th,hold,hold,True,True,4915.9628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-14T09:13:20.746000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Three things I would say are true. +You have been chosen to play in the next round, the probability that you will die is",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T23:57:37.361000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I think you said ""bet this up heavily""",decrease,increase,False,True,9343.1936,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..72c0fcb91497247906b167a85a4cb80a2a5cf35d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,102 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T17:52:28.667000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I replied to “We only have data on what they sampled anywhere up to the beginning of 2016” which is obviously very wrong,increase,increase,True,True,1317.7112,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T23:12:14.742000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","My apologies. I was responding to a comment of Saar's that I felt was rude and uninformative, so the tone seemed appropr",hold,decrease,False,True,1217.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:00:43.382000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,You don't get bonuses once 100 traders are crossed for a market.,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-19T01:08:30.190000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"From the DBLP webpages of Xu and Zhou, we can see that they have published a number of papers in prestigious venues (e.g",increase,decrease,False,True,2682.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-26T00:17:47.803000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,I can't assign numbers to months past September so I may be projecting when I interpret the market's leap in high probab,increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-24T05:50:26.219000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Apparently El Niño's effect is still mostly to come. Epic climate disaster.,flip,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-29T09:46:00.198000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","that tag is pretty funny, what are they dolphins or something? They should say ""informal reasoning"" or something rather ",increase,hold,False,True,93.2525,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T15:48:45.850000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I think the causal story that you're telling is reasonable. However, I think there's probably a strong correlation betwe",flip,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:02:38.102000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Have kids. +They are too old for spanking. +Learn that they are into Manifold and Aella +Get all my friends to fill out ",flip,flip,True,True,3200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T18:47:07.729000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Market participation in last 48 hours. Activity is waning, I know I am reaching comment fatigue.",hold,decrease,False,True,11426.9539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-23T00:15:37.471000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"sometimes the resolution to a paradox is ""the barber shaves herself"", so it would be in genre for the resolution to be t",hold,flip,False,True,96.7058,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T16:30:09.270000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think that's the crux for me! We know someone got killed, so you shouldn't count the case where everyone lives, so the",flip,flip,True,True,178.5206,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T09:30:40.442000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Ending in death +is + stipulated, it is just assumed that we can still come to the same conclusion.",decrease,decrease,True,True,94.2672,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-01T20:33:54.646000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"In case my comment below needs clarification, a) Scott Aaronson runs that website, so the NO statement satisfies the sec",increase,hold,False,True,1671.0257,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-18T23:22:36.928000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Given that the question states ""we just need to then find the limit as N goes to infinity"", I believe my procedure is va",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-20T09:30:45.038000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I don’t think I could roll my eyes back into position once it was my turn to talk and that might be more distracting tha,increase,decrease,False,True,1925.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-14T16:09:05.266000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I would agree with all of this, and I am similarly confused by the double-halfer argument.",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:23:35.381000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In particular, should any bettor on this market repeatedly or forcefully harass or disparage me, I will take that as gro",hold,decrease,False,True,22364.9539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T15:40:12.738000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"great! +1) I have nothing to say about the core, so I will say about the presentation (wording). +Similarly, if you know",decrease,hold,False,True,791.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:11:45.352000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks again for all the progress on pinning this down! Another bit of progress I think we just made is in +the snibgib",hold,increase,False,True,3415.9628,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:27:23.408000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I think that's reasonable. However, if the fact that they are liberal is the reason for a surprising result, and that's ",decrease,decrease,True,True,18100.9353,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T04:07:09.586000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"and I are working on combining our write ups, however in the mean time I have updated my portion to remove appeals to Wo",increase,hold,False,True,12226.9539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T22:37:05.050000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In the iterative game, however, if it’s given that you +are chosen to play then you are playing in some round in the gam",flip,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T09:29:02.062000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"saying that ""you see exactly one roll"" is the truncation of the problem. Every new bit of information should update your",decrease,flip,False,True,740.1382,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T05:38:05.287000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I don't love having this much in any one market, put a limit order for no at 70% if anyone wants to take this dirty cryp",flip,decrease,False,True,2192.3784,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T18:44:06.150000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,With out the 48 hour filter. Sorted by Net Buy-In to show who has already withdrawn the most mana.,hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,11226.9539,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T23:06:05.035000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've been working a little on a draft (which I'm not gonna disclose) of ""the question [you] should have asked"". But I'm ",flip,decrease,False,True,44.7059,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:28:35.181000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,have you ever taken a class in probability?,increase,decrease,False,True,18358.3935,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-03T07:53:29.761000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"But ""let's take the limit as the size goes to infinity"" is just... the most standard approach to such math problems. +AN",decrease,decrease,True,True,3554.6285,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T22:04:53.268000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Patient Chen did not visit anywhere near HSM as the commenter claims. It's easy to make false claims. It's harder to deb,decrease,increase,False,True,24476.9473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-20T00:16:10.629000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Or perhaps a tie breaker by combat?,hold,hold,True,True,1865.7229,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T03:41:06.023000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Looks like I won't be buying much more so here's my YES case: +Polymarket is at 78c +YES is the simple, obvious answer ",decrease,increase,False,True,27422.6095,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T21:08:03.971000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Aella's pretty smart, I don't think she'd only make a comment like that if NO were the correct answer. (See the last sen",flip,increase,False,True,2666.8893,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T22:08:57.735000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",do we know if the judges are telling them the verdict early?,decrease,decrease,True,True,3147.3809,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-25T22:36:26.103000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"In fact, based on eyeballing the blue graph, the bottom of the 95% interval is at ~.78 and the previous record is at ~.3",decrease,increase,False,True,910.4699,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T21:28:14.364000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,yeah that is expected because we cannot simulate infinity in an explicit trial setting. 100% expected behavior if you ,hold,hold,True,True,12726.9539,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T17:55:38.555000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","At any point while adding “clean,” “long,” and “from a foreign source” did you wonder if you’re inappropriately multiply",increase,decrease,False,True,2186.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T00:26:19.756000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"SIA is nonsense which always causes paradoxes, so should not ever be considered a ""school"" or be paid attention to.",decrease,increase,False,True,563.2895,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T20:49:55.016000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,(I'm hedging because I'm worried I missed something and the new probability is correct. Maybe the old one was just overc,flip,decrease,False,True,3487.4203,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-18T06:16:41.352000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Darn, this sounds correct. Maybe my proof is correct for a slightly different question? Namely, what is the expectation ",hold,decrease,False,True,24637.6354,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T22:28:17.400000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I gather from the Wikipedia page that anthropics is working backwards from, perhaps perfect knowledge of the system rule",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T16:18:34.259000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"the best theories for why is he's trying to manipulate the polymarket clone of this question, or it's just a troll. at l",flip,decrease,False,True,7956.6173,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-28T21:30:15.428000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"If your challenge is to reformulate the market to get answer ~1/2, that's easy: +Market A: perform the game for N rounds",flip,decrease,False,True,681.3714,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-17T00:12:18.550000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Perhaps I will bring a covid infected raccoon dog to the debate as proof.,increase,decrease,False,True,198.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-09-14T14:56:21.793000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"""We anticipate that a future version of this product will account for statistical relationships between El Niño-Southern",increase,increase,True,True,2228.2728,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T10:40:25.801000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,50% in the unlikely event of an exact draw?,flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-22T18:17:18.373000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Yeah, it's legitimately hard, I think. I very much encourage people to make the version of the question they think this ",hold,decrease,False,True,3415.9628,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:51:38.081000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"if you all """"aren't bots"""" where are you coming from?",flip,hold,False,True,2740.6349,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T15:43:09.087000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The summation of the mutually exclusive P(death_n) would reconstitute the full P(death) +Yes. Probability of ""at least 1",decrease,flip,False,True,791.1382,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T07:14:37.060000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Just to be clear: 1/Feb/2020 Andersen is someone you cite as an authority before he turns into a fraud a couple weeks la,hold,decrease,False,True,1101.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T21:11:09.140000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,It is not zero. Start with the trivial example of a population of 1 player. You will play in the first round and then t,hold,increase,False,True,11226.9539,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T16:58:42.397000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think that depends on whether you consider ""At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I st",flip,decrease,False,True,178.5206,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T16:12:34.162000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"when you are placed locally inside the events, you have to split 100% between all upcoming events. But as soon as you lo",decrease,increase,False,True,740.1382,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T06:09:22.621000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Nice proof! I was actually talking to someone yesterday about the exact same problem as you put below your proof, which ",increase,hold,False,True,15108.3935,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-15T03:20:59.751000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Nice security mindset from + there! But ultimately I agree with + that (3) is a fine catchall clause. In any case, let",increase,hold,False,True,3605.9628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-25T10:02:33.457000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"the question says that the person ""is chosen"", not ""chosen into round N"". That is why No party defends the answer 0.52..",decrease,increase,False,True,6607.1451,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T11:31:40.116000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"the ""strategic"" part of Snake eyes is +when does the game end +! The organisator of this game decides always decides to",decrease,increase,False,True,740.1382,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T21:38:16.691000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"With a population of 1 the probability of snake eyes is one, so the probability of being selected in a game not ending i",decrease,flip,False,True,94.2672,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2023-11-30T01:15:27.832000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,I recently came across this interesting paper on the P!=NP problem. Research in theoretical computer science has primari,increase,decrease,False,True,110.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T11:29:20.303000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,yea. The market deserves to be in a newsletter and get its page in Manifold history.,decrease,hold,False,True,740.1382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:13:03.912000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Ah, I see you are pointing out the rounding error. Are you a meteorologist or have a climate background?",hold,hold,True,True,52.9799,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-09-14T19:04:50.378000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,he's talking about a different one if i'm not mistaken,hold,decrease,False,True,1779.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-29T09:15:03.295000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""kill everyone in the last round regardless of die-roll"" gives a different probability distribution than ""revert time if",flip,hold,False,True,606.8865,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-17T06:50:18.342000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Given that you are chosen to play 1/36. Given that game over and you were chosen to play ~1/2,increase,decrease,False,True,30.1104,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-06T09:59:19.360000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"If someone carefully reads Xu and Zhou's paper, it is easy to see that this paper has little innovation because its main",hold,decrease,False,True,14412.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-31T19:19:18.873000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I was strong NO until I watched the debate. I am pretty surprised at Rootclaim presentation. +I expected it to be very m",increase,decrease,False,True,30.1183,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T23:53:29.704000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Don't see why you shouldn't bet this up heavily,decrease,increase,False,True,9343.1936,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2023-12-27T09:54:28.556000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Oh, most definitely. If the proof was suggested by an AI, it's only fair that the paper should be verified an AI.",hold,hold,True,True,1359.8018,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-30T02:52:09.070000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"to confirm, is there an infinite number of people in the pool, or is there N, where N is large? these lead to the two di",flip,decrease,False,True,55.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T09:57:13.045000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""Every new bit of information should update your prediction."" +At the point of your dice roll, the only information you ",increase,flip,False,True,14608.3935,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T16:38:58.467000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I would be glad if you explain this ""not because of SIA"" part to your teammates, because most of them (including creator",decrease,hold,False,True,852.5097,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-27T13:47:58.526000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"In mathematics, the constructive approach can make the proof simpler to understand and easier to verify. Therefore, a sh",increase,hold,False,True,4532.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-14T16:38:43.267000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm not available, unfortunately, but hopefully this goes well.",hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:38:44.780000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Apparently they will donate it to the Ukrainian army. +I did not have the destiny of Europe being decided by the spankin",flip,hold,False,True,5300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-12T22:12:54.605000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Shi's point in the interview was that she didn't suspect direct spillover from bat to human in Hubei. Separately, people",increase,decrease,False,True,1293.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T23:00:19.402000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Not at all. You’re just annoying and borderline trollish. And you’re getting close to being blocked. Comment accordingly,increase,increase,True,True,836.4095,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T19:14:50.631000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,At some point I was top or 2nd No holder with an investment of less than 50. Probably shortly after your 10k investment.,flip,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T23:37:46.376000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",It's a restriction endonuclease Bible Code theory... so it has quite a bit to do with the latest and possibly silliest s,hold,decrease,False,True,3746.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-17T07:00:05.175000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"according to the statement of the problem, not rounds are playing the game, but people. Your calculation is correct for ",hold,decrease,False,True,2647.8555,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-25T11:34:03.074000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"""This paper by some rando claims that the key to curing cancer is to find a way to fight the many ingenious ways that ca",decrease,decrease,True,True,4065.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..942998b73cade61d20c034c03e4089463c3e3e5b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.5214664328953794,0.5851625893264817,0.06369615643110227,UP,0.9610256929126297,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",55,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.732402488252339,0.8168018853216241,0.08439939706928512,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,9,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.6119167626046791,0.38757711187059385,-0.22433965073408524,DOWN,0.9938946953143029,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,13,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.8978457490183237,0.8923508317784843,-0.005494917239839414,DOWN,0.7913902750060879,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,96,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.4634399564384911,0.6177657658715143,0.1543258094330232,UP,0.12594031068233147,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.5839029647938523,0.6119167626046791,0.0280137978108268,UP,0.9956737041519002,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,13,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.07681504873687951,0.07066283411098366,-0.006152214625895852,DOWN,0.5262013121551954,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,15,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.38757711187059385,0.22378793287089968,-0.16378917899969417,DOWN,0.660249400524571,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,13,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.9566177270637882,0.9870166425612859,0.030398915497497625,UP,0.5842810404688868,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,11,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.41781490774611274,0.4634399564384911,0.04562504869237838,UP,0.9691862789581573,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,9,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..45777fcbdfbc1813355f8c816a43ea07eb75822b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.7177624095938254,0.9627174893344066,0.24495507974058117,UP,0.021441708213919372,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",224,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.8658382126413652,0.9462725976593186,0.08043438501795341,UP,0.918280026067664,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,31,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.538482483548653,0.6062539825109454,0.0677714989622924,UP,0.659336181990511,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,25,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.5021215602459322,0.5285245917324366,0.026403031486504358,UP,0.18044500458847493,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.30444899979007195,0.2974976905406327,-0.006951309249439264,DOWN,0.2461618793132982,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",40,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.5484024840333742,0.18658713303594915,-0.36181535099742507,DOWN,0.9082481352636136,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,94,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.7464147776926897,0.8518601398387224,0.10544536214603273,UP,0.980989942211431,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,16,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.5290199091244336,0.49843450580772763,-0.030585403316706006,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.6212077968701307,0.7164231260291064,0.09521532915897568,UP,0.31986198778299324,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.703887168097115,0.9298003234567248,0.22591315535960976,UP,0.9633426593824403,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,32,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6ec53ab1f674753dcb758055eb3f60db868cbf2f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:30:11.924000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,there is about 22x$1000 mana purchases in the last few hours. I don't think Manifold got more popular,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-07T14:47:22.321000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"see my rules posted in the comments. i somehow forgot to put them in the description: + If Destiny calls it a manifesto,",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T09:10:43.669000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,yeah it's also a reputational risk now,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T12:56:30.283000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I'm rooting for you Isaac even though I bought No. I just wanna see how far you'll go. The schizoid mind is a beautiful ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-19T20:53:35.367000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,But we only need six days. (Christmas morning),False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T16:06:32.872000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Please do, I'm rooting for team YES over here :)",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:46:30.718000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If he didn't actually keep the money, it doesn't matter if he exploited it since he didn't gain advantage. The reason to",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:32:56.925000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,No; the current proposal would be to have Isaac's negative balance be a loss that comes out of Manifold's treasury (as w,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-18T17:14:04.334000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Getting into good shape, better stamina. Feel much better than just a few weeks ago. Easily able to do 10k in no time an",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T17:56:55.797000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I've reconsidered possible ways forward. I don't need API keys (it's gone gray-to-black zone since that), just your part",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:44:54.715000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I would be tempted to go with Lawful Evil, but I don't think Lawful Evil would self-report or advocate for change in a s",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T13:46:01.375000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Does it need to be in-person to count?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T00:26:14.842000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't expect more than token numbers from China at this point (not enough to matter for this question) because the CCP,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-09T17:32:13.437000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Doing a 50k now will not help at all. You can do one more 20-30k if you want, but you should just be prepping mentally f",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2022-12-28T03:58:18.464000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"@L + also, to be clear: classical liberals echoing their white supremacist friends without realizing does not give the c",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T17:48:51.732000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I bought Yes -- an attempt on the 21st that has some reason for failure gives a full 10 days to prep for a 2nd attempt, ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:42:52.883000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"Oh yeah, lots can happen in a year, like a second waves or something. But also, I think it's plausible that Covid testin",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:47:32.204000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Ah, almost forgot: admins gave him a $25k refund as soon as it got clear that he's going to loose. +But it's OK cuz now",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:14:16.343000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,That is precisely the point Isaac himself is making.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:38:18.056000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why is this all the sudden an issue now and not when Isaac actually made the purchase? Now that he’s about to “lose”? H,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-23T00:19:59.078000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"np :"") could understand why you would think that since i bought YES lol (and made arguments previously in this post abou",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:55:37.087000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I'd give it only a 10% chance that we would resolve it N/A at this point. More likely we will just absorb any losses if ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-06-28T13:19:29.410000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"mrgirl manifesto is finished, he paid someone 1500$ for it, but now doesn't want to publish it to not give Max more atte",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:01:42.582000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Not sure why people seem to think they can extort me by buying 1 NO share. It's obviously a terrible strategy for me to ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-09-22T05:14:49.740000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),yeah visceral fat is a killer. I'm pretty slim and athletic but have a hard time cutting down that last bit of visceral ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T19:38:44.104000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Rooting for him, but he needs 4.8k/hour for the last 8 hours in order to get to 100k. That's pretty hard! Over the last ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T08:45:52.498000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","This is crazy, in just a few hours I went from holding nothing to being a top-20 Yes holder. 😎",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:16:11.139000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,short summary: Isaac devised a plan and tested it ahead of time; He was so sure he's going to win big that he even wrote,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T05:58:13.284000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,holy shit if the $30k is a significant amount of money for him I feel kinda bad. Haven't seen the message from his partn,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:50:27.740000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,This guy rly pays $100 real cash for every person who buys no?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T20:12:17.557000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Lol @ spamming with the links to other markets to hide the very pertinent and worrisome comments made earlier. Let's fac,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T11:30:24.284000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",They won't be wearing a heavy pack or walking in boots; they stand to gain roughly $10k worth of mana; they have 80 beli,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T01:46:45.859000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Already did. I bought Yes at 49% within the first hour on the first day.,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-04T05:35:53.657000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),you have to be able to sustain a high tdee for an extended period of time though,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T14:06:48.121000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I bought 500 M yes at 50% and now I'm still at -100 M profits.😭,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T14:01:48.305000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",nobody's trolling. I'm just surprised at the number of people willing to bet on very subjective/easily manipulated marke,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T14:00:57.633000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,How would this work? Would you guys talk in Russian? I suppose Putin don't speak English or won't speak English.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:08:43.224000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,The market rules actually incentivizes NO to sell out unless they have gone all in.... any amount of NO shares being hel,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:51:31.336000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Current Status: DRAMA +Topic: Paid Referrals +Summary: +A week ago, + paid a bunch of minnows to sign up on Manifold. A",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:36:50.115000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"can't believe i sold my NO at the worst possible moment, cuz i had to go to sleep. should of just left it overnight. -5",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:49:04.972000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",After 1-2 days we can start doing a few steps hopefully 😂,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:48:53.986000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Everyone lost this market. No side lost their mana, Isaac lost $22000...",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-07T06:19:16.881000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,It's the new negative Covid variant taking over.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:56:15.547000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"A US-centric point of view is appropriate in some instances, and within this case, given that the US is the main financi",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:43:59.443000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"So, either 1 giga-whale shall preside over desolation or 100 greed-motivated mini-whales shall descend upon us poors. 🤣",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:57:28.187000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Interesting, catnee is cashing out at 10%",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:54:11.397000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"btw + I’m done here but left a single NO share currently worth ~M$9k to you, willing to sell and stay away for M$4k",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-04T22:39:45.360000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","oh, the boots I bought were literally ready to go, I never broke them in. That is against the traditional perspective of",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:11:10.494000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Yes, we did think about this. All bailouts are necessarily unfair and create perverse incentives, but Isaac's spending w",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T21:38:27.343000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Frequent hiker. r2r2r is like 11,000 feet of elevation gain, and I'd already done 10,000 feet of gain. But I'd never don",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-03-11T13:42:51.112000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"At this moment, I see both 435 positions listed, and exactly the same number of investors in YES and NO.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T16:55:58.606000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"That's a reasonable position, but life can never be perfectly ""fair."" +Here, I would judge Manifold fairly harshly if i",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:23:10.946000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why are you so concerned with calling N/A on this and the markets surrounding it when that has no bearing on the fact th,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-05T08:15:40.257000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I would worry the springiness and drop height of vaporflys might cause you to take longer steps which would mean you end,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T09:02:52.617000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I'll give you M$1 for a meme, right now.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-03-26T04:53:09.979000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"$420 on YES. +Counter mrgirl manifesto incoming lmao",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-30T00:00:35.834000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Quite a few of those accounts were deleted after they were used to manipulate markets the last time. The pattern of obfu,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T19:01:56.662000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,It's all of the stress and pitfalls of the stock market without any of the benefit. AMAZIN,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:39:34.810000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Isaac is not making 200k/year. I can attest to the fact that this is not just a significant portion of his wealth, it's ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c6e802d50054b42f2ecd8415230f6070d406c39f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:30:11.924000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,there is about 22x$1000 mana purchases in the last few hours. I don't think Manifold got more popular,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T16:06:32.872000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Please do, I'm rooting for team YES over here :)",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-07T14:47:22.321000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"see my rules posted in the comments. i somehow forgot to put them in the description: + If Destiny calls it a manifesto,",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:32:56.925000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,No; the current proposal would be to have Isaac's negative balance be a loss that comes out of Manifold's treasury (as w,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T09:10:43.669000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,yeah it's also a reputational risk now,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-19T20:53:35.367000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,But we only need six days. (Christmas morning),False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T12:56:30.283000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I'm rooting for you Isaac even though I bought No. I just wanna see how far you'll go. The schizoid mind is a beautiful ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:46:30.718000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If he didn't actually keep the money, it doesn't matter if he exploited it since he didn't gain advantage. The reason to",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-18T17:14:04.334000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Getting into good shape, better stamina. Feel much better than just a few weeks ago. Easily able to do 10k in no time an",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T17:56:55.797000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I've reconsidered possible ways forward. I don't need API keys (it's gone gray-to-black zone since that), just your part",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-09T17:32:13.437000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Doing a 50k now will not help at all. You can do one more 20-30k if you want, but you should just be prepping mentally f",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2022-12-28T03:58:18.464000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"@L + also, to be clear: classical liberals echoing their white supremacist friends without realizing does not give the c",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T13:46:01.375000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Does it need to be in-person to count?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:44:54.715000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I would be tempted to go with Lawful Evil, but I don't think Lawful Evil would self-report or advocate for change in a s",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T17:48:51.732000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I bought Yes -- an attempt on the 21st that has some reason for failure gives a full 10 days to prep for a 2nd attempt, ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T00:26:14.842000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't expect more than token numbers from China at this point (not enough to matter for this question) because the CCP,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:42:52.883000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"Oh yeah, lots can happen in a year, like a second waves or something. But also, I think it's plausible that Covid testin",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:47:32.204000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Ah, almost forgot: admins gave him a $25k refund as soon as it got clear that he's going to loose. +But it's OK cuz now",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-09-22T05:14:49.740000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),yeah visceral fat is a killer. I'm pretty slim and athletic but have a hard time cutting down that last bit of visceral ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:38:18.056000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why is this all the sudden an issue now and not when Isaac actually made the purchase? Now that he’s about to “lose”? H,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-06-28T13:19:29.410000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"mrgirl manifesto is finished, he paid someone 1500$ for it, but now doesn't want to publish it to not give Max more atte",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-23T00:19:59.078000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"np :"") could understand why you would think that since i bought YES lol (and made arguments previously in this post abou",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:55:37.087000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I'd give it only a 10% chance that we would resolve it N/A at this point. More likely we will just absorb any losses if ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:01:42.582000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Not sure why people seem to think they can extort me by buying 1 NO share. It's obviously a terrible strategy for me to ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:16:11.139000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,short summary: Isaac devised a plan and tested it ahead of time; He was so sure he's going to win big that he even wrote,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T19:38:44.104000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Rooting for him, but he needs 4.8k/hour for the last 8 hours in order to get to 100k. That's pretty hard! Over the last ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:14:16.343000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,That is precisely the point Isaac himself is making.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T20:12:17.557000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Lol @ spamming with the links to other markets to hide the very pertinent and worrisome comments made earlier. Let's fac,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T08:45:52.498000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","This is crazy, in just a few hours I went from holding nothing to being a top-20 Yes holder. 😎",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:49:04.972000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",After 1-2 days we can start doing a few steps hopefully 😂,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:50:27.740000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,This guy rly pays $100 real cash for every person who buys no?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T14:06:48.121000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I bought 500 M yes at 50% and now I'm still at -100 M profits.😭,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T11:30:24.284000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",They won't be wearing a heavy pack or walking in boots; they stand to gain roughly $10k worth of mana; they have 80 beli,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-04T05:35:53.657000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),you have to be able to sustain a high tdee for an extended period of time though,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T14:01:48.305000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",nobody's trolling. I'm just surprised at the number of people willing to bet on very subjective/easily manipulated marke,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T05:58:13.284000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,holy shit if the $30k is a significant amount of money for him I feel kinda bad. Haven't seen the message from his partn,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T01:46:45.859000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Already did. I bought Yes at 49% within the first hour on the first day.,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T14:00:57.633000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,How would this work? Would you guys talk in Russian? I suppose Putin don't speak English or won't speak English.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:08:43.224000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,The market rules actually incentivizes NO to sell out unless they have gone all in.... any amount of NO shares being hel,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:43:59.443000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"So, either 1 giga-whale shall preside over desolation or 100 greed-motivated mini-whales shall descend upon us poors. 🤣",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:48:53.986000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Everyone lost this market. No side lost their mana, Isaac lost $22000...",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-07T06:19:16.881000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,It's the new negative Covid variant taking over.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:51:31.336000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Current Status: DRAMA +Topic: Paid Referrals +Summary: +A week ago, + paid a bunch of minnows to sign up on Manifold. A",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:57:28.187000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Interesting, catnee is cashing out at 10%",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:36:50.115000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"can't believe i sold my NO at the worst possible moment, cuz i had to go to sleep. should of just left it overnight. -5",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:56:15.547000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"A US-centric point of view is appropriate in some instances, and within this case, given that the US is the main financi",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:54:11.397000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"btw + I’m done here but left a single NO share currently worth ~M$9k to you, willing to sell and stay away for M$4k",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-03-11T13:42:51.112000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"At this moment, I see both 435 positions listed, and exactly the same number of investors in YES and NO.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-04T22:39:45.360000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","oh, the boots I bought were literally ready to go, I never broke them in. That is against the traditional perspective of",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-05T08:15:40.257000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I would worry the springiness and drop height of vaporflys might cause you to take longer steps which would mean you end,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T16:55:58.606000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"That's a reasonable position, but life can never be perfectly ""fair."" +Here, I would judge Manifold fairly harshly if i",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:11:10.494000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Yes, we did think about this. All bailouts are necessarily unfair and create perverse incentives, but Isaac's spending w",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:23:10.946000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why are you so concerned with calling N/A on this and the markets surrounding it when that has no bearing on the fact th,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T21:38:27.343000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Frequent hiker. r2r2r is like 11,000 feet of elevation gain, and I'd already done 10,000 feet of gain. But I'd never don",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T09:02:52.617000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I'll give you M$1 for a meme, right now.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-30T00:00:35.834000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Quite a few of those accounts were deleted after they were used to manipulate markets the last time. The pattern of obfu,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T19:01:56.662000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,It's all of the stress and pitfalls of the stock market without any of the benefit. AMAZIN,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-03-26T04:53:09.979000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"$420 on YES. +Counter mrgirl manifesto incoming lmao",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:39:34.810000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Isaac is not making 200k/year. I can attest to the fact that this is not just a significant portion of his wealth, it's ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..67429b93a61f7378834bb44a155810fb6c1338f7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T08:45:52.498000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","This is crazy, in just a few hours I went from holding nothing to being a top-20 Yes holder. 😎",YES,YES,True,True,909.3391,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:01:42.582000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Not sure why people seem to think they can extort me by buying 1 NO share. It's obviously a terrible strategy for me to ,YES,YES,True,True,4279820.6121,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-28T16:55:26.030000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,The notion doc says you were deleting the alts to obfuscate your hacks but you contradict that by saying you requested t,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:36:50.115000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"can't believe i sold my NO at the worst possible moment, cuz i had to go to sleep. should of just left it overnight. -5",NO,NO,True,True,5838.9067,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-05T08:15:40.257000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I would worry the springiness and drop height of vaporflys might cause you to take longer steps which would mean you end,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:42:52.883000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"Oh yeah, lots can happen in a year, like a second waves or something. But also, I think it's plausible that Covid testin",NO,NO,True,True,2833.7063,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T21:38:27.343000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Frequent hiker. r2r2r is like 11,000 feet of elevation gain, and I'd already done 10,000 feet of gain. But I'd never don",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T14:01:48.305000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",nobody's trolling. I'm just surprised at the number of people willing to bet on very subjective/easily manipulated marke,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:57:02.869000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"As Isaac showed, you really can’t buy enough shares to make a difference short term in this market without driving the p",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:47:32.204000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Ah, almost forgot: admins gave him a $25k refund as soon as it got clear that he's going to loose. +But it's OK cuz now",NO,NO,True,True,7198.5808,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:01:25.868000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"At the request of the resolution committee, I have extended the close time.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T14:06:48.121000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I bought 500 M yes at 50% and now I'm still at -100 M profits.😭,YES,NO,False,True,68.4781,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T20:12:17.557000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Lol @ spamming with the links to other markets to hide the very pertinent and worrisome comments made earlier. Let's fac,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-07-09T02:21:18.499000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,Do you have a list of books you plan to read? Or will it be spontaneously (or a mix)?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:39:34.810000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Isaac is not making 200k/year. I can attest to the fact that this is not just a significant portion of his wealth, it's ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T09:02:52.617000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I'll give you M$1 for a meme, right now.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,4189820.6121,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-06T14:47:03.937000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,there'es something incredibly confused about this claim. Do the nuclear risk markets phrased as 'will a nuclear weapon b,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-05-05T10:19:36.035000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I have to admit, when I started this market, I was not counting on another manifesto and honestly it was like my first f",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-07T14:47:22.321000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"see my rules posted in the comments. i somehow forgot to put them in the description: + If Destiny calls it a manifesto,",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:08:43.224000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,The market rules actually incentivizes NO to sell out unless they have gone all in.... any amount of NO shares being hel,NO,YES,False,True,1.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T02:55:27.392000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,every person you recruit is basically $100 to charity,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,61647.1735,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T13:46:01.375000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Does it need to be in-person to count?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:58:14.081000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"It's pretty buried, so here it is again: +My offer to all NO holders with less than 2000 NO shares (as of a few hours ag",YES,YES,True,True,4020890.7452,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:11:12.173000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Yeah I totally agree with you. I actually am very okay with them refunding the $30k to Isaac, I don’t want his life or a",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,15600.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-07T06:19:16.881000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,It's the new negative Covid variant taking over.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T12:56:30.283000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I'm rooting for you Isaac even though I bought No. I just wanna see how far you'll go. The schizoid mind is a beautiful ,NO,NO,True,True,1.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T05:58:13.284000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,holy shit if the $30k is a significant amount of money for him I feel kinda bad. Haven't seen the message from his partn,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,292.5581,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-04T22:47:25.044000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","this is what I've heard all my life, but I took some good advice in store and the boots I bought were cushioned at the a",NO,NO,True,True,20.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-30T21:21:45.129000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Levi & Mira pumping the market, just like the OpenAI AGI market +(This is a joke Levi I don't actually know what info yo",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T00:26:14.842000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't expect more than token numbers from China at this point (not enough to matter for this question) because the CCP,NO,NO,True,True,70.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T09:34:45.116000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I wonder why aren't you creating e.g. a limit order at 10% for the whole sum to at least get some mana back,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T01:57:50.147000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,": On second thought, we should also N/A all the + meta-markets on WvM +, since I think the secondary WvM ""economy"" (if I",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T19:01:56.662000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,It's all of the stress and pitfalls of the stock market without any of the benefit. AMAZIN,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T23:24:52.643000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Well I'm ruined by this market since I went to sleep last night betting on yes at high price thinking Isaac was going to,YES,NO,False,True,10573.6834,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:38:18.056000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why is this all the sudden an issue now and not when Isaac actually made the purchase? Now that he’s about to “lose”? H,NO,NO,True,True,15600.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:51:31.336000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Current Status: DRAMA +Topic: Paid Referrals +Summary: +A week ago, + paid a bunch of minnows to sign up on Manifold. A",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,147134.4291,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-18T17:14:04.334000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Getting into good shape, better stamina. Feel much better than just a few weeks ago. Easily able to do 10k in no time an",YES,YES,True,True,323249.6695,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:59:37.957000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"team no did a lot of recruiting after isaac dumped 25k in, they're mostly real people",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-19T20:53:35.367000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,But we only need six days. (Christmas morning),YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T04:42:48.655000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,posted in the orbiter channel alrdy,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:48:53.986000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Everyone lost this market. No side lost their mana, Isaac lost $22000...",NO,NO,True,True,1322.9181,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-04T22:39:45.360000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","oh, the boots I bought were literally ready to go, I never broke them in. That is against the traditional perspective of",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,20.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:54:11.397000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"btw + I’m done here but left a single NO share currently worth ~M$9k to you, willing to sell and stay away for M$4k",NO,NO,True,True,145.071,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-14T23:46:14.856000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,What's with all the recent action?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T05:11:39.690000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Should I spend $50k on YES shares not to win a ""profit"" but simply to deny Isaac the bragging rights of being the bigges",NO,YES,False,True,148258.1317,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-03-26T04:53:09.979000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"$420 on YES. +Counter mrgirl manifesto incoming lmao",YES,YES,True,True,420.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:50:27.740000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,This guy rly pays $100 real cash for every person who buys no?,NO,NO,True,True,100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:56:15.547000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"A US-centric point of view is appropriate in some instances, and within this case, given that the US is the main financi",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T02:54:19.443000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"No, you can go on a public recruiting spree and possibly still win the market or at least make Isaac spend literally $10",NO,NO,True,True,148258.1317,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:01:01.898000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"he compulsively gambled. Hated it, wanted to stop, expressed it also but couldn't stop and kept buying till he had alrea",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:55:48.062000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I think you vastly overestimate what wealthy means, especially someone at a young age. There are not many in the US that",NO,NO,True,True,15600.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:16:11.139000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,short summary: Isaac devised a plan and tested it ahead of time; He was so sure he's going to win big that he even wrote,NO,NO,True,True,7198.5808,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-16T16:49:21.556000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"But brinit depends on you right? You eat less train more you lose weight, you eat more protein and lift heavyweight and ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T16:06:32.872000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Please do, I'm rooting for team YES over here :)",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:18:00.963000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You say that you’re not going to rest easy until this thing closes? Do you mean until this market closes? Why do you car,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,15600.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-04T05:35:53.657000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),you have to be able to sustain a high tdee for an extended period of time though,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-19T14:26:39.626000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"First off, very impressive yet again that you actually attempted to fit a mathematical function on this problem set. Thi",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T17:48:51.732000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I bought Yes -- an attempt on the 21st that has some reason for failure gives a full 10 days to prep for a 2nd attempt, ",YES,YES,True,True,3159.3391,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:23:10.946000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why are you so concerned with calling N/A on this and the markets surrounding it when that has no bearing on the fact th,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,15600.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T02:51:13.653000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I'm out. I sold completely. To whoever ate my 20,000 mana position, I only have one thing to say to you.... +..... +Can ",NO,NO,True,True,14419.5132,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-10-02T08:15:40.965000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"That seems like it would be a pretty straightforward first amendment violation, no? As such I'm pretty skeptical that th",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T21:50:56.673000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I actually looked up the effects of resolving to N/A (Manifold's FAQ page is at +https://help.manifold.markets/c69e1194",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,30.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:14:27.110000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Dude that's a tough exterior. I'm not even you and even I got uncomfortable. Then I went to the top all time and the way,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,85.8983,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T18:36:41.534000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"dude, stop the cope and take ur fat L",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T12:31:25.534000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"yeah i'd prefer if whalebait markets didn't count as profits, not because they aren't fun, but because they're less inte",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-09T17:32:13.437000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Doing a 50k now will not help at all. You can do one more 20-30k if you want, but you should just be prepping mentally f",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-23T00:19:59.078000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"np :"") could understand why you would think that since i bought YES lol (and made arguments previously in this post abou",YES,NO,False,True,1000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T01:46:45.859000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Already did. I bought Yes at 49% within the first hour on the first day.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:49:04.972000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",After 1-2 days we can start doing a few steps hopefully 😂,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-03-11T13:42:51.112000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"At this moment, I see both 435 positions listed, and exactly the same number of investors in YES and NO.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1300.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T09:10:43.669000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,yeah it's also a reputational risk now,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T19:38:44.104000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Rooting for him, but he needs 4.8k/hour for the last 8 hours in order to get to 100k. That's pretty hard! Over the last ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T13:59:58.882000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"yeah, i know. it's still pretty correlated with intelligence and predictive accuracy because winning whalebait markets t",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:47:39.680000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,youre fucking dgg too you goddamn traitor,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:43:59.443000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"So, either 1 giga-whale shall preside over desolation or 100 greed-motivated mini-whales shall descend upon us poors. 🤣",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:30:11.924000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,there is about 22x$1000 mana purchases in the last few hours. I don't think Manifold got more popular,NO,NO,True,True,62997.1735,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-07-15T02:00:29.082000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,Robert Jordan needed an editor with a scythe,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:43:32.409000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"this will be irrelevant now, + . Who will benefit from the chaos? this is a time sink without the fun",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T14:00:57.633000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,How would this work? Would you guys talk in Russian? I suppose Putin don't speak English or won't speak English.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:55:37.087000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I'd give it only a 10% chance that we would resolve it N/A at this point. More likely we will just absorb any losses if ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T12:36:54.175000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,If I spent 1 mana does it count as I bought 1 NO share?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-06-28T13:19:29.410000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"mrgirl manifesto is finished, he paid someone 1500$ for it, but now doesn't want to publish it to not give Max more atte",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:40:44.094000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","He walked faster while awake, but took a lot of breaks in the first third of the day. He also started late.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2022-12-28T03:58:18.464000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"@L + also, to be clear: classical liberals echoing their white supremacist friends without realizing does not give the c",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-30T00:00:35.834000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Quite a few of those accounts were deleted after they were used to manipulate markets the last time. The pattern of obfu,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,NO,YES,False,True,185627.3121,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2022-12-28T03:42:39.230000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"so like yeah same but also please read my comments in the other thread, if he's agentically white supremacist then that ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:46:30.718000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If he didn't actually keep the money, it doesn't matter if he exploited it since he didn't gain advantage. The reason to",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,148258.1317,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T17:56:55.797000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I've reconsidered possible ways forward. I don't need API keys (it's gone gray-to-black zone since that), just your part",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T16:55:58.606000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"That's a reasonable position, but life can never be perfectly ""fair."" +Here, I would judge Manifold fairly harshly if i",NO,NO,True,True,2003.6588,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T11:30:24.284000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",They won't be wearing a heavy pack or walking in boots; they stand to gain roughly $10k worth of mana; they have 80 beli,YES,YES,True,True,8278.8358,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T05:26:44.659000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Waiting for this comment section to explode when August calls the video ""Melifesto"" (Such an opportunity missed if he do",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T23:11:24.101000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I sold my positions elsewhere to buy this back up by more shares than i sold,YES,YES,True,True,487666.6405,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:57:28.187000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Interesting, catnee is cashing out at 10%",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:26:13.824000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Those do not look like regulation steps.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T21:32:11.609000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I hiked grand canyon rim to rim to rim once, which is probably close to 100k steps, but maybe not quite there. I don't p",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T21:43:18.264000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","After being a big NO holder for a long time, I am now a YES holder if I had the mana. fuh didn't try his best at all and",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:11:10.494000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Yes, we did think about this. All bailouts are necessarily unfair and create perverse incentives, but Isaac's spending w",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,20136.091,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T17:26:11.140000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Please write me if you consider flipping from YES to NO. For this to happen we need some more willing participants.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-09-22T05:14:49.740000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),yeah visceral fat is a killer. I'm pretty slim and athletic but have a hard time cutting down that last bit of visceral ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:44:54.715000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I would be tempted to go with Lawful Evil, but I don't think Lawful Evil would self-report or advocate for change in a s",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:17:52.885000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","🧡🧡🧡 +(I'm holding no but I'm still cheering for you big time)",NO,NO,True,True,82.8091,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:32:56.925000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,No; the current proposal would be to have Isaac's negative balance be a loss that comes out of Manifold's treasury (as w,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T21:34:39.276000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"badge-by-name, on whatever platform, generally signals to me ""currently favored by the platformholders"", whether by pre-",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:39:15.072000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I was too hostile towards you, I’ll admit that. I think a large part of my frustration is the fact that I saw no cries f",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,15600.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:14:16.343000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,That is precisely the point Isaac himself is making.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T17:55:40.855000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Just take a photo of it every few hours. Post them afterward.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e6c6ec25491dfa091d601f1c6c9c33ad134d75e7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,120 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T01:25:44.882000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Does that imply that admins refunded 25K USD?,hold,decrease,False,True,2003.6588,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-05-04T05:45:31.163000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"alright, here's a chart from Gun Violence Archive illustrating a (slightly different) picture. My point is still that th",decrease,hold,False,True,1624.3493,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-05T12:59:14.786000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,I don't want to feed into the idea that these markets are bad/cause people to murder. Awkwardly changing the wording doe,decrease,hold,False,True,272.01,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-19T00:07:11.604000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Can't imagine a single reason why Putin could be interested,increase,increase,True,True,11400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:49:21.235000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"wait, will you donate +some + of your wins to charity, or hoard all the mana? I'll recruit a bunch of NOs if you don't ",increase,hold,False,True,101.9938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T00:39:36.654000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"I only have one college degree, but it’s in Chinese Political Science so trust me, you need to update your priors and re",increase,increase,True,True,18319.6433,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:05:18.642000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",It's the only thing I know how to do on this frightening website!,flip,hold,False,True,85130.6197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-04T14:41:30.177000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"Yeah, for a day X to count, it has to stay below the thresold for 3 consecutive days",hold,hold,True,True,90727.2138,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:33:29.111000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",If I were him I’d be so sick of walking I’d need to run to get it over with.,flip,hold,False,True,2824.7997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T01:51:06.724000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,Is this your fault? Have you done this to me? Are you the one who snuck onto my computer and created a 20k position on a,flip,decrease,False,True,16210.7043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:55:20.327000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,where are you getting the ~20 estimate for how many of the NO traders are alts/bots? That seems implausibly small.,flip,decrease,False,True,132.003,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-05T12:52:27.475000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,but it should go down with each month right?,increase,decrease,False,True,10.5471,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-23T05:31:38.675000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,In what way is it a whale game?,decrease,hold,False,True,14033.9177,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-12T06:10:08.209000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't really get the point of this question. Why is it interesting whether China reports 25M cases by the end of 2023?,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:23:49.249000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"is lucky this happened here and that the Manifold peeps are so empathetic. Let me tell you, when I got hyper-focused on ",hold,decrease,False,True,6326.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T20:46:23.515000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Dude, let it drop. If you’re not interested move along. If you think the odds are too high, take a larger position. If y",flip,hold,False,True,1656.6636,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:02:37.056000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Literally just buy NO instead, it's way more profitable, don't fall for his tricks!",hold,increase,False,True,19501.3711,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-07T14:46:09.168000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"Once FUH really starts putting the steps in, he’ll start gaining more leg muscle mass, and slow down the weight loss. O",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-18T01:28:32.270000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,This seems... completely pointless?,flip,decrease,False,True,1260.0485,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:17:18.466000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Maybe you can ask FUH to bail you out when they become a mana millionaire tomorrow,increase,hold,False,True,3500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T13:58:02.413000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I’m a NO holder, smarty pants.",decrease,hold,False,True,226.5293,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T05:54:26.880000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",All my money's on Sam Altman. I can't buy this market down anymore.,hold,hold,True,True,331956.5524,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:46:21.069000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-lexfridman-interview-volodymyr?r=QlRF +this is much more likely. Lex was born in Ukrai",increase,flip,False,True,715.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T20:33:37.256000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",You don’t get to keep your mvp badge if you did this. 😂,increase,decrease,False,True,4250.5905,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:21:48.404000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),I'll try more extreme measures after 100k attempt. That attempt alone burns enough calories to offset 1.5kgs,decrease,increase,False,True,77670.9996,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T11:34:08.717000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",That’s rly valuable info to me ty!,flip,hold,False,True,1819.0009,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-04T21:15:43.736000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,Or if a person dies days later in the hospital would that count?,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:32:51.206000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,even if we tank it to 0.1% doubt Isaac can buy enough 😜,hold,increase,False,True,3113.1819,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:27:56.270000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",ok i think mine’s the accurate one; still pretty much on pace,flip,hold,False,True,2584.3994,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:19:27.869000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),with only 2 weeks left and prioritizing rest days for 100k steps is likely jeopardizing this goal. I wish I was 1 kg fur,decrease,decrease,True,True,77670.9996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-15T01:59:08.558000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"Everyone is different so I can only use my own experience as a reference, but it looks like there hasn't been enough lea",flip,flip,True,True,20.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:14:39.794000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,This isn't possible because of the pseudorandom resolution. It could end any minute. Nobody knows.,increase,decrease,False,True,148056.3649,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-21T21:26:10.080000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Hey, yeah, done +Edit: PS Didnt get around to doing the 50k attempt either, got busy with work.",hold,decrease,False,True,327090.1873,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:45:16.326000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Lmao EA causes? No, he is not making any such donation. He's giving manifold money , which is an indirect effect but goe",increase,hold,False,True,137.8983,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T06:52:20.442000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I'm not going to try to accomplish this at the expense of the weight loss goal, but in the week leading up to the 100k a",hold,decrease,False,True,433317.5264,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:48:53.986000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Everyone lost this market. No side lost their mana, Isaac lost $22000...",flip,hold,False,True,1322.9181,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T00:04:27.375000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",or the garmin dies at 95k and we’ll never know how it ends,decrease,decrease,True,True,157.6218,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:03:19.805000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Oh really, who? Name all of the, ""hundreds,"" who are better candidates and who would be better than Lex. Maybe you are o",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T00:18:17.403000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"My dude, only 12M of the WHO covid cases occurred in 2023, which was in the preamble to SA's prediction contest. However",increase,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:11:33.352000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I can't wait until it's over. I thought i'd never cheer the bitcoin miners to work faster.,flip,decrease,False,True,9203.832,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T19:18:09.104000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why are you holding these 69% YES orders?,increase,decrease,False,True,42948.1859,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-04-04T03:47:49.465000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Whether that ""piece"" is a manifesto or just an article remains to be seen. However seeing that Destiny said that it's on",increase,increase,True,True,1015.6123,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:53:09.975000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Yes holders if you don't get it: you can 1. Get you money out risk free and bet a fraction of it on No potentially gett,flip,flip,True,True,1692.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-03T15:33:39.362000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"Ofc I want to be supportive, but I suppose this is a truth seeking website. This market is the second best buy after the",hold,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-18T05:46:28.702000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Not the person you’re responding to but I doubt someone would be able to trivially work 8 hours and then make up 100,000",increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:50:23.801000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,How many of those are isaac’s bot swarm that he’s gonna pull out,flip,decrease,False,True,138758.0821,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-19T12:40:01.610000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"Ehh, I find the social aspect fun: +- I prefer collaborative truth seeking to individualist +- There is a chance that I ",hold,decrease,False,True,7500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T05:34:42.151000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,">getting his mana back won't get his money back. +They’re getting a (I think at least partial) refund from Manifold.",increase,decrease,False,True,72.4045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T08:59:35.455000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Isaac better win... If this come down to a debate over alt accounts it's going to be an absolute shit show.,decrease,decrease,True,True,233.6191,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-11-03T12:44:33.317000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"It probably would count according to the market creator's definition below: +https://manifold.markets/iteal/will-destin",flip,decrease,False,True,6829.6068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T21:49:37.698000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",There will not be a second attempt. This is the one!,flip,increase,False,True,2332.1795,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:22:00.461000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Wait right i copied the wrong thing ty,flip,hold,False,True,2324.3994,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-15T00:20:48.826000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"I think the Poisson model mentioned by + was probably a model quantized using mass shootings with over 20 deaths as ind",flip,decrease,False,True,216.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-05T00:18:50.604000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"I mean, if the person dies in the hospital from bullet wounds I would say that would count. If they died from falling do",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T23:03:55.135000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"at this close the minnows have points 949 (-alts undetermined) +at this close the whales have points of 555 + 13to15 = ",flip,hold,False,True,53.3105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T13:03:08.244000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,2 BTC to this market and the Whales could be winning,hold,flip,False,True,36400.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T17:52:03.654000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,is what i see as the latest gigacasting bet. looks like a limit fill though,flip,hold,False,True,750.5876,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:33:09.756000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I'll be real surprised if he manages to run in the end.,decrease,hold,False,True,31.3306,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T15:23:48.170000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,at this point you are saying that manifold can't ethically make money by selling mana. That's fair. (Selling fake money ,increase,decrease,False,True,77713.4596,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-05-05T18:38:40.503000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Payout coming soon. He's talking about needing a writer for ""manifesto-stuff"" in this clip: +https://www.reddit.com/r/D",hold,increase,False,True,10168.6694,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:17:57.635000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"I'm still net 180k shares on yes. In just the last 2 days, I lost half a kg, but today I've barely moved. I think its po",decrease,decrease,True,True,77670.9996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-12T14:14:20.912000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"We could ask + for clarification.But maybe not until after Full Mode completes, since the Blind Mode folks would not ha",hold,hold,True,True,55.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T19:04:17.426000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Hmmm.... How about you fit the data to an exponential curve,decrease,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:50:47.829000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"if we interpret it charitably, it takes a while before manifold itself agrees on a position. They don't work as fast at ",increase,decrease,False,True,3420.3912,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T12:52:29.289000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Seconded. Cryotherapy/icing/ice baths etc feel good for some people but the evidence for their efficacy is mixed at best,decrease,hold,False,True,215.7268,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T16:45:03.418000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","FWIW, I am an early No buyer, but I am at ~75% right now. While I think the odds are slim if OP hasn't prepared, at this",decrease,decrease,True,True,3977.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T09:39:58.452000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I disagree on the ice baths. I think the evidence for them is shakier than many think, and if fuh doesn't use them norma",increase,decrease,False,True,213.1255,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-10-02T04:26:25.965000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"Not at all! Started this market in June with 4 books, I believe. It's more of a 1/2 a year, and 1/2 the books thing, ex",decrease,decrease,True,True,37313.5431,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T01:20:37.838000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","While not the best comparison since it is relatively small amounts, my account is up over 2700% from two weeks ago. 15% ",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:56:09.736000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","hm, if it's the only time, that definitely seems to imply it's the easiest time... (but there are other high-volume mark",hold,hold,True,True,3284.0382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-27T13:28:14.467000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","if one makes one step every second for 1 hour straight, you would not get to 4k steps, yet 7.5k steps in an hr is averag",hold,decrease,False,True,328532.3779,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-13T15:26:18.198000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"600 Now, Because I believe. I want to believe.",increase,increase,True,True,577.7177,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:19:40.972000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),that's because you can't possibly get rid of that many shares quickly,decrease,hold,False,True,2308.1018,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:16:53.998000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,why the fuck did you buy YES you goddamn traitor,increase,decrease,False,True,8989.5548,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-22T02:43:58.100000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"I'm praying he's listening to audiobooks right now a short one, called ""how to crush them steps""",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:15:31.190000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,don't be shy guys I don't bite 😉,decrease,hold,False,True,19501.3711,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T04:15:57.967000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",How long did the 50k effort take?,hold,hold,True,True,2638.5913,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T03:10:59.762000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","We’ve all considered the things before betting. That’s why we’re here. Some of us bet YES. Some of us bet NO. As for me,",increase,decrease,False,True,352.728,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-09-19T13:38:29.969000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"unlikely. The best I can do rn is keep my current pace and do 5 books a month, very moderate. +23 done + 2-3 ongoing pu",hold,decrease,False,True,37313.5431,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T00:12:57.381000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Read the description: +""If the community calls it a manifesto and it quickly gets a name similar to the ""N-word Manifest",decrease,increase,False,True,64.6139,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:27:40.643000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Word! Just curious how we're recommended to engage in propaganda wars in a more wholesome fashion 😃,decrease,hold,False,True,19501.3711,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-16T17:13:27.562000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","If the chart is showing old data for you too, push the refresh button on the top right! I think iOS caches things in the",hold,hold,True,True,213.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-20T21:07:22.476000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Can you screenshot it? I do not use discord as a principle after their absolutely terrible privacy and data selling poli,increase,decrease,False,True,463.4639,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-13T07:52:47.020000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I walked that distance (25m) but I was walking all day, 10 hours very very casual. I had feet that were tired, my spirit",increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T21:09:10.076000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"There is an opportunity cost to doing all of that. Basically, your logic can be just as easily applied to going to 10000",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-11T22:39:20.987000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"There's a good chance that OWID just stop reporting Covid numbers when we get to April. They rely on JHU, who are going ",decrease,increase,False,True,2599.5449,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-29T21:39:05.048000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,i can't find that tweet on his twitter,flip,hold,False,True,93.9731,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:17:52.885000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","🧡🧡🧡 +(I'm holding no but I'm still cheering for you big time)",flip,hold,False,True,82.8091,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T02:51:13.653000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I'm out. I sold completely. To whoever ate my 20,000 mana position, I only have one thing to say to you.... +..... +Can ",flip,decrease,False,True,14419.5132,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:06:23.587000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"It's very time sensitive guys, we need to find people as quickly as possible!",hold,decrease,False,True,19481.3711,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:20:00.583000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I'm still buying NO at around 80%, there are no new data from FUH and his last update being below the target pace. Also ",hold,decrease,False,True,15900.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:55:30.154000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I was supportive of that idea +😅",decrease,decrease,True,True,310.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-14T20:10:21.871000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",iirc someone (maybe me?) has asked previously if these are real steps,hold,decrease,False,True,2744.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T21:18:15.530000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",If you have an adhd prescription now's the time to drop an adderall btw ^^,hold,increase,False,True,2500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:19:01.777000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If you explained what the numbers mean to them, I think those diamond hands might appreciate it.",flip,increase,False,True,22080.4123,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-22T14:04:44.171000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"I think now is the best time to push this goal. You probably lost a bunch of weight in the 100k attempt, and you will ne",decrease,increase,False,True,1117.4081,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:51:54.168000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Go ahead and create a market on whether the sun will rise tomorrow. I will bet on it. You can try misresolving it, see i",decrease,hold,False,True,16195.7275,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T00:33:11.285000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,oh god why is my position in this market so big. When did this even happen I think somebody hacked me and made these bet,flip,decrease,False,True,19087.2507,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-15T05:52:12.213000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"wow, why is my known alt on trial? And please don't post 10 pics, it makes it hard to scroll. I've literally not hidden ",hold,hold,True,True,11.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T16:20:02.014000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Not to mention the time it took for the last unreleased ""manifesto"" to find a writer to write it out yadda yadda. +This",decrease,increase,False,True,1256.9543,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4d7cca75671528d4c2431824fe4625c8e2fc80b7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,60 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-22T02:43:58.100000+00:00,"I'm praying he's listening to audiobooks right now a short one, called ""how to crush them steps""",hold,hold,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:27:40.643000+00:00,Word! Just curious how we're recommended to engage in propaganda wars in a more wholesome fashion 😃,decrease,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T04:15:57.967000+00:00,How long did the 50k effort take?,hold,hold,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:02:37.056000+00:00,"Literally just buy NO instead, it's way more profitable, don't fall for his tricks!",hold,decrease,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T16:45:03.418000+00:00,"FWIW, I am an early No buyer, but I am at ~75% right now. While I think the odds are slim if OP hasn't prepared, at this",decrease,decrease,True +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-04T14:41:30.177000+00:00,"Yeah, for a day X to count, it has to stay below the thresold for 3 consecutive days",hold,decrease,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T19:04:17.426000+00:00,Hmmm.... How about you fit the data to an exponential curve,decrease,decrease,True +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-05-05T18:38:40.503000+00:00,"Payout coming soon. He's talking about needing a writer for ""manifesto-stuff"" in this clip: +https://www.reddit.com/r/D",hold,decrease,False +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:19:40.972000+00:00,that's because you can't possibly get rid of that many shares quickly,decrease,hold,False +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:21:48.404000+00:00,I'll try more extreme measures after 100k attempt. That attempt alone burns enough calories to offset 1.5kgs,decrease,hold,False +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-03T15:33:39.362000+00:00,"Ofc I want to be supportive, but I suppose this is a truth seeking website. This market is the second best buy after the",hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T21:18:15.530000+00:00,If you have an adhd prescription now's the time to drop an adderall btw ^^,hold,decrease,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T08:59:35.455000+00:00,Isaac better win... If this come down to a debate over alt accounts it's going to be an absolute shit show.,decrease,decrease,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:06:23.587000+00:00,"It's very time sensitive guys, we need to find people as quickly as possible!",hold,decrease,False +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-05-04T05:45:31.163000+00:00,"alright, here's a chart from Gun Violence Archive illustrating a (slightly different) picture. My point is still that th",decrease,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:56:09.736000+00:00,"hm, if it's the only time, that definitely seems to imply it's the easiest time... (but there are other high-volume mark",hold,hold,True +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:03:19.805000+00:00,"Oh really, who? Name all of the, ""hundreds,"" who are better candidates and who would be better than Lex. Maybe you are o",decrease,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:32:51.206000+00:00,even if we tank it to 0.1% doubt Isaac can buy enough 😜,hold,hold,True +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:17:57.635000+00:00,"I'm still net 180k shares on yes. In just the last 2 days, I lost half a kg, but today I've barely moved. I think its po",decrease,decrease,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:55:30.154000+00:00,"I was supportive of that idea +😅",decrease,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:20:00.583000+00:00,"I'm still buying NO at around 80%, there are no new data from FUH and his last update being below the target pace. Also ",hold,decrease,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T00:04:27.375000+00:00,or the garmin dies at 95k and we’ll never know how it ends,decrease,decrease,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-16T17:13:27.562000+00:00,"If the chart is showing old data for you too, push the refresh button on the top right! I think iOS caches things in the",hold,hold,True +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-19T12:40:01.610000+00:00,"Ehh, I find the social aspect fun: +- I prefer collaborative truth seeking to individualist +- There is a chance that I ",hold,hold,True +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-09-19T13:38:29.969000+00:00,"unlikely. The best I can do rn is keep my current pace and do 5 books a month, very moderate. +23 done + 2-3 ongoing pu",hold,decrease,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T13:58:02.413000+00:00,"I’m a NO holder, smarty pants.",decrease,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T12:52:29.289000+00:00,Seconded. Cryotherapy/icing/ice baths etc feel good for some people but the evidence for their efficacy is mixed at best,decrease,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-14T20:10:21.871000+00:00,iirc someone (maybe me?) has asked previously if these are real steps,hold,hold,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T01:25:44.882000+00:00,Does that imply that admins refunded 25K USD?,hold,decrease,False +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T00:12:57.381000+00:00,"Read the description: +""If the community calls it a manifesto and it quickly gets a name similar to the ""N-word Manifest",decrease,decrease,True +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-07T14:46:09.168000+00:00,"Once FUH really starts putting the steps in, he’ll start gaining more leg muscle mass, and slow down the weight loss. O",hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T01:20:37.838000+00:00,"While not the best comparison since it is relatively small amounts, my account is up over 2700% from two weeks ago. 15% ",decrease,decrease,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-27T13:28:14.467000+00:00,"if one makes one step every second for 1 hour straight, you would not get to 4k steps, yet 7.5k steps in an hr is averag",hold,decrease,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:51:54.168000+00:00,"Go ahead and create a market on whether the sun will rise tomorrow. I will bet on it. You can try misresolving it, see i",decrease,hold,False +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T16:20:02.014000+00:00,"Not to mention the time it took for the last unreleased ""manifesto"" to find a writer to write it out yadda yadda. +This",decrease,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T06:52:20.442000+00:00,"I'm not going to try to accomplish this at the expense of the weight loss goal, but in the week leading up to the 100k a",hold,decrease,False +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-23T05:31:38.675000+00:00,In what way is it a whale game?,decrease,hold,False +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-11T22:39:20.987000+00:00,"There's a good chance that OWID just stop reporting Covid numbers when we get to April. They rely on JHU, who are going ",decrease,decrease,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-21T21:26:10.080000+00:00,"Hey, yeah, done +Edit: PS Didnt get around to doing the 50k attempt either, got busy with work.",hold,decrease,False +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-12T14:14:20.912000+00:00,"We could ask + for clarification.But maybe not until after Full Mode completes, since the Blind Mode folks would not ha",hold,hold,True +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-22T14:04:44.171000+00:00,"I think now is the best time to push this goal. You probably lost a bunch of weight in the 100k attempt, and you will ne",decrease,decrease,True +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:19:27.869000+00:00,with only 2 weeks left and prioritizing rest days for 100k steps is likely jeopardizing this goal. I wish I was 1 kg fur,decrease,decrease,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:15:31.190000+00:00,don't be shy guys I don't bite 😉,decrease,hold,False +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-05T12:59:14.786000+00:00,I don't want to feed into the idea that these markets are bad/cause people to murder. Awkwardly changing the wording doe,decrease,hold,False +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-10-02T04:26:25.965000+00:00,"Not at all! Started this market in June with 4 books, I believe. It's more of a 1/2 a year, and 1/2 the books thing, ex",decrease,decrease,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T13:03:08.244000+00:00,2 BTC to this market and the Whales could be winning,hold,hold,True +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-15T05:52:12.213000+00:00,"wow, why is my known alt on trial? And please don't post 10 pics, it makes it hard to scroll. I've literally not hidden ",hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T05:54:26.880000+00:00,All my money's on Sam Altman. I can't buy this market down anymore.,hold,decrease,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:33:09.756000+00:00,I'll be real surprised if he manages to run in the end.,decrease,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:23:49.249000+00:00,"is lucky this happened here and that the Manifold peeps are so empathetic. Let me tell you, when I got hyper-focused on ",hold,decrease,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..85597d86914d8fc57ea4f42f44bf2ed6e3e1c800 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,63 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T04:15:57.967000+00:00,How long did the 50k effort take?,hold,hold,True +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-05-05T18:38:40.503000+00:00,"Payout coming soon. He's talking about needing a writer for ""manifesto-stuff"" in this clip: +https://www.reddit.com/r/D",hold,hold,True +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-22T02:43:58.100000+00:00,"I'm praying he's listening to audiobooks right now a short one, called ""how to crush them steps""",hold,hold,True +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-15T00:20:48.826000+00:00,"I think the Poisson model mentioned by + was probably a model quantized using mass shootings with over 20 deaths as ind",flip,flip,True +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-11-03T12:44:33.317000+00:00,"It probably would count according to the market creator's definition below: +https://manifold.markets/iteal/will-destin",flip,flip,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:02:37.056000+00:00,"Literally just buy NO instead, it's way more profitable, don't fall for his tricks!",hold,hold,True +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-03T15:33:39.362000+00:00,"Ofc I want to be supportive, but I suppose this is a truth seeking website. This market is the second best buy after the",hold,flip,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T21:18:15.530000+00:00,If you have an adhd prescription now's the time to drop an adderall btw ^^,hold,flip,False +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-04T14:41:30.177000+00:00,"Yeah, for a day X to count, it has to stay below the thresold for 3 consecutive days",hold,hold,True +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-18T01:28:32.270000+00:00,This seems... completely pointless?,flip,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:22:00.461000+00:00,Wait right i copied the wrong thing ty,flip,hold,False +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T17:52:03.654000+00:00,is what i see as the latest gigacasting bet. looks like a limit fill though,flip,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T23:03:55.135000+00:00,"at this close the minnows have points 949 (-alts undetermined) +at this close the whales have points of 555 + 13to15 = ",flip,flip,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:50:23.801000+00:00,How many of those are isaac’s bot swarm that he’s gonna pull out,flip,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T20:46:23.515000+00:00,"Dude, let it drop. If you’re not interested move along. If you think the odds are too high, take a larger position. If y",flip,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:56:09.736000+00:00,"hm, if it's the only time, that definitely seems to imply it's the easiest time... (but there are other high-volume mark",hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:27:56.270000+00:00,ok i think mine’s the accurate one; still pretty much on pace,flip,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:06:23.587000+00:00,"It's very time sensitive guys, we need to find people as quickly as possible!",hold,flip,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:20:00.583000+00:00,"I'm still buying NO at around 80%, there are no new data from FUH and his last update being below the target pace. Also ",hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T11:34:08.717000+00:00,That’s rly valuable info to me ty!,flip,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:11:33.352000+00:00,I can't wait until it's over. I thought i'd never cheer the bitcoin miners to work faster.,flip,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:32:51.206000+00:00,even if we tank it to 0.1% doubt Isaac can buy enough 😜,hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T21:49:37.698000+00:00,There will not be a second attempt. This is the one!,flip,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-16T17:13:27.562000+00:00,"If the chart is showing old data for you too, push the refresh button on the top right! I think iOS caches things in the",hold,hold,True +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-19T12:40:01.610000+00:00,"Ehh, I find the social aspect fun: +- I prefer collaborative truth seeking to individualist +- There is a chance that I ",hold,hold,True +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T01:51:06.724000+00:00,Is this your fault? Have you done this to me? Are you the one who snuck onto my computer and created a 20k position on a,flip,hold,False +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-09-19T13:38:29.969000+00:00,"unlikely. The best I can do rn is keep my current pace and do 5 books a month, very moderate. +23 done + 2-3 ongoing pu",hold,flip,False +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-15T01:59:08.558000+00:00,"Everyone is different so I can only use my own experience as a reference, but it looks like there hasn't been enough lea",flip,flip,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T01:25:44.882000+00:00,Does that imply that admins refunded 25K USD?,hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-27T13:28:14.467000+00:00,"if one makes one step every second for 1 hour straight, you would not get to 4k steps, yet 7.5k steps in an hr is averag",hold,flip,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-14T20:10:21.871000+00:00,iirc someone (maybe me?) has asked previously if these are real steps,hold,hold,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:48:53.986000+00:00,"Everyone lost this market. No side lost their mana, Isaac lost $22000...",flip,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T06:52:20.442000+00:00,"I'm not going to try to accomplish this at the expense of the weight loss goal, but in the week leading up to the 100k a",hold,hold,True +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-07T14:46:09.168000+00:00,"Once FUH really starts putting the steps in, he’ll start gaining more leg muscle mass, and slow down the weight loss. O",hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:17:52.885000+00:00,"🧡🧡🧡 +(I'm holding no but I'm still cheering for you big time)",flip,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-21T21:26:10.080000+00:00,"Hey, yeah, done +Edit: PS Didnt get around to doing the 50k attempt either, got busy with work.",hold,flip,False +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T21:09:10.076000+00:00,"There is an opportunity cost to doing all of that. Basically, your logic can be just as easily applied to going to 10000",flip,hold,False +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T02:51:13.653000+00:00,"I'm out. I sold completely. To whoever ate my 20,000 mana position, I only have one thing to say to you.... +..... +Can ",flip,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:05:18.642000+00:00,It's the only thing I know how to do on this frightening website!,flip,hold,False +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-29T21:39:05.048000+00:00,i can't find that tweet on his twitter,flip,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:33:29.111000+00:00,If I were him I’d be so sick of walking I’d need to run to get it over with.,flip,flip,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:55:20.327000+00:00,where are you getting the ~20 estimate for how many of the NO traders are alts/bots? That seems implausibly small.,flip,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:23:49.249000+00:00,"is lucky this happened here and that the Manifold peeps are so empathetic. Let me tell you, when I got hyper-focused on ",hold,hold,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:19:01.777000+00:00,"If you explained what the numbers mean to them, I think those diamond hands might appreciate it.",flip,hold,False +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-15T05:52:12.213000+00:00,"wow, why is my known alt on trial? And please don't post 10 pics, it makes it hard to scroll. I've literally not hidden ",hold,hold,True +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-12T14:14:20.912000+00:00,"We could ask + for clarification.But maybe not until after Full Mode completes, since the Blind Mode folks would not ha",hold,hold,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:53:09.975000+00:00,Yes holders if you don't get it: you can 1. Get you money out risk free and bet a fraction of it on No potentially gett,flip,flip,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T05:54:26.880000+00:00,All my money's on Sam Altman. I can't buy this market down anymore.,hold,hold,True +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T00:33:11.285000+00:00,oh god why is my position in this market so big. When did this even happen I think somebody hacked me and made these bet,flip,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T13:03:08.244000+00:00,2 BTC to this market and the Whales could be winning,hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..5b7334d93f2d747b9944517e3d245c30fc1cfacf --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,128 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-16T17:24:08.762000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Hey I, DM FUH, and no he was testing things yesterday on a trial run (the day sync is weird from time zones rn). He’s go",hold,flip,False,True,213.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:00:29.748000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,speak for yourself. I have no objection on you no betting on any self referential market. But don't try to exclude every,decrease,hold,False,True,16195.7275,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:05:08.214000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Now maybe you need to recruit some more NO buyers to make him go as far as possible :3,decrease,increase,False,True,265.6877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T08:44:40.917000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I recruited several people so far to join, bet NO, and then leave. They can stay if they want to but I would bet like a ",increase,decrease,False,True,64320.3166,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-10-26T22:38:23.469000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"would have been nice if I could have been betting last night, but oh well, win some lose some",increase,hold,False,True,270.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T00:07:11.637000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","oh nice, I was hoping something would offset my losses in this market",increase,decrease,False,True,157.6218,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:33:29.111000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",If I were him I’d be so sick of walking I’d need to run to get it over with.,flip,hold,False,True,2824.7997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T17:57:02.679000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Can you make a market claiming this and bet a lot on YES?,hold,flip,False,True,18063.8817,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-11-03T14:36:54.099000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"(Guys, don't tell FUH, need to keep it a surprise, but we're saving it as a Christmas present)",flip,hold,False,True,32931.4457,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:09:29.540000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,It’s going to be very hard to distinguish between alts versus begging your real live friends to create an account and bu,flip,decrease,False,True,128650.221,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-10-26T01:49:57.684000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"Wikipedia/NBC say 22 dead and suspect still at large: +https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Lewiston_shootings",flip,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:27:29.461000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Which with Alts is not enough of a lead, it needs to be more.",increase,decrease,False,True,2530.4062,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T13:41:49.819000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Is 10% your actual odds? +I'm at 65% chance of reattempting, 65-70% of sucess. I.e. this market should be around 40% ri",decrease,flip,False,True,2060.8707,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-02-08T21:06:07.675000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"They come out relatively often, this is a safe YES bet IMO +Oct 2019 - Lefty manifesto (""Clarifying some previous events",increase,increase,True,True,95.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T05:30:08.938000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,YES!!!!!!!!!!!!! DOWN WITH THE OUTGROUP,hold,flip,False,True,19496.3711,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:05:18.642000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",It's the only thing I know how to do on this frightening website!,flip,hold,False,True,85130.6197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T14:31:03.875000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","It was exhausting, but I just spent an hour scouring the route, finding the traps, and dismantling them. Nice try.",hold,increase,False,True,72671.4963,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T19:23:21.471000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",lol. Exponential growth always looks likes logistic growth at first.,hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T09:21:02.247000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"YESers, it's time. We're fluctuating in the low 90s, most of your profits are realized! Cash out, put in a bid on NO. Ea",flip,flip,True,True,1528.3457,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-21T22:49:24.740000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"IMO it needs to be a written document, not just Destiny telling some assortment of personal stories on stream.",increase,hold,False,True,19976.7695,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:55:00.264000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,he's not giving the hundred to you though,decrease,decrease,True,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-30T00:02:30.356000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),this is not an unhealthy rate of weight loss,hold,hold,True,True,241.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T08:30:55.567000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",100k is way harder than 50k and that sleep schedule was wack,increase,increase,True,True,1136.5525,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T22:29:55.151000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","you could post a picture of your watch including it on your own wrist with its hand clearly visible, then post one every",increase,hold,False,True,623.1677,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-11T22:43:22.625000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"In summary, I think the most likely outcomes (with the least likely last) are: +Scott realises the question was ambiguou",decrease,hold,False,True,2599.5449,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T08:05:45.485000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1187502131490590770 + this thread, because I had to find it.",flip,hold,False,True,97.6516,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T00:36:45.076000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Also two markets can be very similar but resolve opposite ways, because their criteria are different. In this case the o",increase,hold,False,True,20089.1473,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-08T07:25:18.910000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",so you're saying he's gonna throw the fight in the 90K'th round? 💴,hold,hold,True,True,508.1332,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:55:47.906000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I lost where the discord thread was,flip,decrease,False,True,207.0984,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:58:48.354000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,We are crashing this market with no survivors,decrease,increase,False,True,72.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T18:29:55.794000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I'd be interested to know what you're basing this on. Are there updates somewhere I'm not aware of? The last update I sa,flip,decrease,False,True,678.0805,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-28T14:36:38.830000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"See admin comment here where firstuserhere was fined for exploiting mana hacks. The ""insider knowledge"" was: I was the ",increase,increase,True,True,49721.7849,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-10T22:27:14.587000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I actually don't think that's advisable at this point. If doing 80k, might as well go for 100k. More long walks are goin",hold,decrease,False,True,1883.4638,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:23:22.868000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","If he falls short today, will he try again? +https://manifold.markets/Fion/if-firstuserhere-fails-to-complete?r=Rmlvbg",increase,hold,False,True,213.1255,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:28:09.111000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"At least as an interim measure, there needs to be a cap on the amount of cash-money purchases by a person in a given per",hold,decrease,False,True,2003.6588,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T23:07:20.911000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,It's so tempting to buy in again but I think I need to learn my lesson and not bet on psychic warfare markets like this ,flip,decrease,False,True,14749.2992,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T18:01:36.462000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Dr strange doesn't actually have the ability to comprehend the difference between 14million and 4.4e15. He is a magician,decrease,hold,False,True,23097.0544,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T19:51:20.894000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",??? At midnight the count resets anyway?,decrease,flip,False,True,15250.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-20T23:23:28.172000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,I think Musk thinks it’s cool to talk to Putin. He bragged about it to Ian Bremmer before denying it later and getting e,increase,increase,True,True,780.5117,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T23:27:24.161000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,perhaps start a gofundme market in manifold and have the crowd donate some mana to you. I'll chip in 200,flip,increase,False,True,13577.3611,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T09:28:42.988000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"before you make your judgment watch the previous manifestos to assess if yesterday’s stream is a manifesto ! +The keffe",increase,increase,True,True,1300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T13:45:47.019000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"lol I wonder how much +https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/isaacking-stock-permanent + will devalue when the dust settles",increase,hold,False,True,4393.5808,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T23:02:38.965000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,that's pseudorandom so it is acceptable,flip,hold,False,True,53.3105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T08:37:30.139000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Not only did he do 50k, he didn't have any difficulty with it. That wasn't priced in. +I'd bet YES at current prices if ",hold,decrease,False,True,1883.4638,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T10:21:31.715000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"he can't, you can only create limit orders with balance >= 0, because limit order value should be less than your balance",increase,decrease,False,True,946.1756,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T01:51:06.724000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,Is this your fault? Have you done this to me? Are you the one who snuck onto my computer and created a 20k position on a,flip,decrease,False,True,16210.7043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-17T22:58:05.194000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",just freeing mana for a while due to sama news,hold,decrease,False,True,321216.6695,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T17:13:19.434000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,", you're talking about Vladimir Putin the leader of Russia, not some other Vladimir Putin, right?",increase,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:36:30.912000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",has been making something pretty close based on the updates we get,decrease,decrease,True,True,18193.9564,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-23T20:39:11.263000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Who even is this guy? Pretty sure it's not happening lol,flip,hold,False,True,4.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:21:29.666000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"life. +estimate average of seeing the block is 5 days?? +it happened 4 days ago 00 block. +it is gonna happen eventual",flip,hold,False,True,53.3105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T01:21:39.501000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Isaac has a balance of negative 2.5 million. It’s over.,flip,decrease,False,True,65433.2152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:28:02.308000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","""Breaks are the mind-killer. Breaks are the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my break..."" +This ",flip,increase,False,True,784.843,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-27T01:56:33.879000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,I just want to learn about market dynamics,increase,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T20:26:00.507000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,A document with no evidence would likely not be a manifesto unless it was HIGHLY elaborate to make up for it. A piece of,flip,increase,False,True,14749.2992,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:39:34.212000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Hahaha I love the market rage still ongoing after Austin's wholesome statement. I'm glad Isaac is getting some of his mo,hold,decrease,False,True,19501.3711,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T23:49:17.682000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I'm pleased to see that Manifold is going to step in and refund part of the Money to Isaac. Going forward, Manifold coul",flip,hold,False,True,12614.4419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T12:52:29.289000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Seconded. Cryotherapy/icing/ice baths etc feel good for some people but the evidence for their efficacy is mixed at best,decrease,hold,False,True,215.7268,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-16T17:00:45.581000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Every time Marcus leaves a skeptical comment on this market I buy Ṁ1000 worth of NO.,increase,increase,True,True,2600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-05-05T19:24:42.345000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"THIS WILL BE THE YEAR OF PEACE. +NO MORE MANIFESTOS ONLY PODCAST WITH DAN +COPES",hold,increase,False,True,230.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:40:33.188000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I get the sense I now know what it was like to tune in for the moon landing +this market is like a modern space race",decrease,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-09T23:26:48.645000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Easy money if we manage 14 people in the next 35 minutes. +https://manifold.markets/d/will-this-market-attract-at-least",hold,hold,True,True,0.1507,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:35:07.147000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Don't worry we'll both be selling our no shares in the morning. Good job putting fake internet money over real relations,decrease,decrease,True,True,1042.3774,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:26:04.700000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",there's a market on who's best calibrated actually!,increase,hold,False,True,38858.7331,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-11T22:39:20.987000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"There's a good chance that OWID just stop reporting Covid numbers when we get to April. They rely on JHU, who are going ",decrease,increase,False,True,2599.5449,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:37:06.960000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","This can't be right, where is when they slept?",decrease,decrease,True,True,18355.8211,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T16:40:06.189000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"well I'm not switching. I don't think the resolution to YES is better for the site as a whole, than a NO resolution. +Ev",increase,increase,True,True,33051.4269,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T14:37:49.635000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Stress fractures typically develop over much longer periods as a result of overtraining and/or poor recovery. You don’t ,decrease,increase,False,True,206.5293,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T22:05:46.337000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",How much time does he have left?,decrease,hold,False,True,23679.1837,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:16:57.531000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"this is all a ploy, any sec now a ""new"" whale will come in...",hold,decrease,False,True,5838.9067,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:07:14.866000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,There's a time for action and there's a time to reflect over you personal relationships.,hold,decrease,False,True,19496.3711,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:39:22.245000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"as mentioned before, i am just a mercenary",increase,hold,False,True,26606.1075,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:04:01.612000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,All the NO holders should cash out their earnings now and let Isaac win.,decrease,decrease,True,True,827.0262,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T11:34:08.717000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",That’s rly valuable info to me ty!,increase,hold,False,True,1819.0009,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T07:08:02.052000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Love your podcasts. +Buying this down, think it's below 10%. +Has Putin even given any interviews in 2023? I don't belie",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:21:14.973000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I don't think trading profits is a perfect measure, I just think it's the best one, kinda like gdp/capita ppp adjusted f",decrease,hold,False,True,135817.3986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:05:26.442000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Hey, I'm Levina, what is your name? 😏",hold,hold,True,True,19501.3711,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-21T23:04:00.011000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,I don't think that matters per the criteria. The stream is published. All that matters is the subjective opinion of the ,increase,increase,True,True,1570.3037,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T12:26:44.150000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"REMINDER TO NOT BUY TOO MUCH NO SHARES, YOU WILL DRIVE THE PRICE DOWN FOR THE YES SIDE!!! BUY AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE!!!",hold,decrease,False,True,9698.5128,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T01:18:24.118000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","true, but that doesn't make it much easier, because then I need to know of +multiple + markets that are mispriced by ov",decrease,hold,False,True,788.3441,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T00:03:42.346000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",The final 15k will be significantly harder. Do not use that linear extrapolation graph,decrease,increase,False,True,1806.7803,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:53:09.975000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Yes holders if you don't get it: you can 1. Get you money out risk free and bet a fraction of it on No potentially gett,hold,flip,False,True,1692.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T08:18:43.510000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I am guessing you are an alt for one of the NO hoarding whales,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T02:52:33.104000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"oh sorry, I wont share dms again without asking first, didnt think these were bad to post. +And Nvm I misunderstood the ",increase,hold,False,True,531.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T22:48:39.585000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I understand how you may have interpreted your commitment as just being about going down with the ship and not profiting,flip,decrease,False,True,24.3016,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T19:55:05.812000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,Definitely is not a manifesto btw. Not even close.,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-29T21:37:21.611000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"It's sort of funny how Lex is buying YES in this market +I wonder if he's betting on insider info or if he's just messin",flip,hold,False,True,4939.922,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-29T17:34:49.452000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"Yes, the wink was meant as a joke, but I think it is some evidence that FUH isn't inclined to feast on holidays, especia",flip,increase,False,True,1526.8276,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T22:08:45.524000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Hopium is the difference between those who finish ultramarathons and those who never start them.,flip,increase,False,True,2332.1795,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-10T17:29:04.503000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),how have the last few days been?,hold,hold,True,True,1585.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T12:56:30.283000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I'm rooting for you Isaac even though I bought No. I just wanna see how far you'll go. The schizoid mind is a beautiful ,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:36:05.744000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","That’s why we won’t let it happen! All hail FUH, bravest of walkers, sorest of legs!",decrease,increase,False,True,1800.7002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:07:27.709000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"what a nice lady! I am Luka, nice to meet you",hold,hold,True,True,6.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-04-04T03:48:54.011000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Has + said what he will consider a manifesto?",hold,hold,True,True,600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:48:53.986000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Everyone lost this market. No side lost their mana, Isaac lost $22000...",flip,hold,False,True,1322.9181,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T18:03:37.893000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"see, + is not a mathematician either",decrease,hold,False,True,23097.0544,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-23T05:31:38.675000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,In what way is it a whale game?,decrease,hold,False,True,14033.9177,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:27:56.270000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",ok i think mine’s the accurate one; still pretty much on pace,flip,hold,False,True,2584.3994,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:24:09.517000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"about mana no for several reasons. 1) I am not playing for mana, 2) I am playing to test my new algorithm about improvin",hold,hold,True,True,9.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T05:56:16.349000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,What a clusterfuck of a social experiment. It's all play money but I had a real fight with my GF because I was paying to,decrease,decrease,True,True,1042.3774,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..dfe8a81eca8e00fefcf36ae8c7f860c02622fdb1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,129 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-22T02:39:31.361000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"if he completes tonight he can eat a slight calorie deficit to take advantage, if he needs to retry in a week he needs t",hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:04:48.573000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,there is always 1-2 people who take it too personally. Dont generalize to the rest of us from it. Most people took a los,increase,decrease,False,True,85.8983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:17:42.398000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",You got this! Find a good soul to make you coffee and soup. You’re awesome!,flip,increase,False,True,2332.1795,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T17:50:11.795000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,a sensible opinion instead of a hype train. what the fuck.,increase,hold,False,True,265.6877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-11-03T02:22:35.618000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"i dont know why i make stupid bets like this, but 🤓 technically, the badge is called Moderator now",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T19:00:32.558000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Shouldn't be too hard to tag all the high value self-referential markets,hold,hold,True,True,24817.0544,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T14:00:34.818000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",people also aren't good at updating their beliefs given new evidence. I think this is the core skill you can learn from ,decrease,increase,False,True,135817.3986,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-29T17:11:32.580000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,I am no longer a bot account :),decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-15T01:59:08.558000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"Everyone is different so I can only use my own experience as a reference, but it looks like there hasn't been enough lea",flip,flip,True,True,20.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T09:07:07.991000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,SO CLOSE. Maybe the minnows would've won.,increase,decrease,False,True,148450.0456,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T14:37:49.635000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Stress fractures typically develop over much longer periods as a result of overtraining and/or poor recovery. You don’t ,decrease,increase,False,True,206.5293,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T17:58:48.487000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","it’s updating for me. try opening the link +Here + and refreshing manually.",flip,hold,False,True,175.6218,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T23:30:54.264000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",""" +for an achievement people look at for a second and then move on with the rest of their day"" +He looks at it for 18+ h",hold,flip,False,True,742.843,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-10-18T19:27:01.173000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Destiny: Do you think it'd be worth it just to make a Hasan manifesto over this? +Destiny: The YT video would do numbers",flip,increase,False,True,296.0794,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T22:29:55.151000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","you could post a picture of your watch including it on your own wrist with its hand clearly visible, then post one every",increase,hold,False,True,623.1677,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T19:16:30.576000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",the second time was really impactful,hold,increase,False,True,67779.2773,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-04T03:36:31.415000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"Can look at +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States + for base rates",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-03-09T22:29:18.499000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"you could probably daisy-chain this prediction with others, like daily active users on Manifold, and a bunch of others. ",hold,hold,True,True,74.4604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:10:15.700000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You have a negative profit from this market. Of course you want it to resolve N/A,decrease,decrease,True,True,160551.083,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T22:42:42.583000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",your sleep after the first section is going to make or break this. You might not even be able to have 4 hours sleep if y,increase,decrease,False,True,623.1677,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:17:52.885000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","🧡🧡🧡 +(I'm holding no but I'm still cheering for you big time)",flip,hold,False,True,82.8091,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:07:00.003000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"He's a menacing market manipulator gloating his use of hundreds of bot accounts under his control, using them to influen",hold,decrease,False,True,19501.3711,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:26:00.205000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Btw + did you buy the mana for it, or is it some kind of loan ?",increase,hold,False,True,925.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-09T15:34:42.877000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Are we talking normal steps, or are baby steps permitted?",flip,hold,False,True,100.0062,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-24T02:38:54.642000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I love this market so much. I'm in agreement with others that it is actually pretty easy physically to walk 100k steps (,increase,increase,True,True,291.4999,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T19:49:52.512000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","he commented on a discord thread that he got cold and tired and couldn't keep going +also some talk that the strategy fo",hold,flip,False,True,312.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-09-01T15:54:56.576000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"hmm, I should sell some of my shares.... nevermind",decrease,decrease,True,True,12222.2003,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:39:35.898000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"as of now, this is the only place mana can go. that said, that is fair. i retract this statement(I can't delete it thoug",increase,decrease,False,True,62997.1735,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T20:26:00.507000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,A document with no evidence would likely not be a manifesto unless it was HIGHLY elaborate to make up for it. A piece of,flip,increase,False,True,14749.2992,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-03T14:36:20.957000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,we all gonna look like such fools when it really happens 😭,increase,flip,False,True,5730.6999,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T01:51:06.724000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,Is this your fault? Have you done this to me? Are you the one who snuck onto my computer and created a 20k position on a,flip,decrease,False,True,16210.7043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-22T01:19:15.450000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",fwiw there are also other markets where I set personal challenges and lots of mana on yes and ended up losing them more ,hold,decrease,False,True,328090.1873,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T02:05:35.755000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,No bro literally nothing happened. Destiny went on stream and cried a bit about how mean Mel is. What you are witnessing,flip,decrease,False,True,15490.4052,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:16:54.491000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,No? Minnows are recruiting by going to forums and people bet on their own will or dont if they dont wanna. That's why mi,increase,hold,False,True,99.5638,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-10-02T04:26:25.965000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"Not at all! Started this market in June with 4 books, I believe. It's more of a 1/2 a year, and 1/2 the books thing, ex",decrease,decrease,True,True,37313.5431,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T04:15:57.967000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",How long did the 50k effort take?,hold,hold,True,True,2638.5913,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:06:38.799000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Levi if that's all you got from this I'm sorry.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1042.3774,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T01:20:29.137000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"no argument there, just an opinion based on “the scale of the drama” 🤷‍♂️",decrease,hold,False,True,1948.2171,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-23T20:39:11.263000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Who even is this guy? Pretty sure it's not happening lol,flip,hold,False,True,4.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T22:23:46.630000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"api/v0/bets/ +I've collected all the ~23k bets made on this market, sorted the position changes chronologically (cuz lim",increase,hold,False,True,8248.5808,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:21:29.666000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"life. +estimate average of seeing the block is 5 days?? +it happened 4 days ago 00 block. +it is gonna happen eventual",flip,hold,False,True,53.3105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T18:47:44.779000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I've looked at the previous Isaac's Pump&Dump markets, and none of the 167 accounts that he used there are NO sharesolde",increase,increase,True,True,6598.5808,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T03:18:19.735000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Also should note: Without Marcus and Mira's participation, this market would be significantly less interesting! +Plus, i",increase,hold,False,True,435.3391,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-03-09T03:21:03.381000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"not significant, especially since it's play money. The standard argument is: you could easily short a company's stock an",increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-06T20:26:49.492000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","correct, actual walk, not just sitting and swinging my arm hoping it counts as steps or taking tiny steps (idk how the w",hold,hold,True,True,270710.164,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:36:59.761000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Out of all the absurdly miscalibrated markets I've seen here this one really takes the cake.,increase,increase,True,True,31.7107,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-07-16T08:45:17.569000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"Well, well, well, the embed just got somewhat better.",decrease,increase,False,True,7904.0933,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-11-02T23:14:00.082000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,3K mistakes are a rite of passage; here's mine:,hold,decrease,False,True,1392.1873,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:46:41.382000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Whenever a bitcoin block ending in 00 is mined,flip,hold,False,True,6768.1049,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:22:00.461000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Wait right i copied the wrong thing ty,flip,hold,False,True,2324.3994,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T08:04:41.356000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","If he was at 20k by 4:20am, then that leaves 19 hours and 40 minutes to do 80k if he wants to go for the 100k today. Or ",flip,decrease,False,True,3159.3391,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:55:32.042000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Like i predicted. ""Whales will push the date until they collect enough mana to win, so prolongation benefits their chanc",flip,increase,False,True,15.204,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-28T14:15:36.235000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"Will + read 50+ books in 2024? - Market for the next year - +I will not be participating in the market as a trader +.",flip,decrease,False,True,35070.3127,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:54:45.946000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I dm'd him and had to be careful how I phrased things, so it was more a ""nearly over/victory laps"" etc type comment... Y",flip,decrease,False,True,784.843,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:36:23.270000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"actually, I think they are maybe concerned right now",increase,decrease,False,True,2118.1769,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:24:09.190000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Gotta get that adrenaline push to the finish line. Go get’em, FUH!!!",flip,increase,False,True,2824.7997,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T01:23:21.856000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I suspect the number is around 997, but I need to find the 3 markets that you are wrong on",decrease,hold,False,True,1450.9246,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T20:57:05.671000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",All that but no boots. Any extra weight on your feet is going to kill your chances at getting in so many steps.,increase,decrease,False,True,13.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-05T09:23:46.767000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,No way in hell this will actually happen,increase,increase,True,True,1060.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T00:32:48.032000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,so he wrote one and reads it on stream but your complaint is that we don’t know what the document says exactly word for ,hold,increase,False,True,675.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:01:24.396000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","has made some quite frankly, killer predictions on this site on AI letter and on GPT 4 parameters.",decrease,hold,False,True,135817.3986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T08:32:14.470000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,the link doesn't work for me. Can you confirm that you will not donate any mana (including the mana you win) to Manifold,decrease,hold,False,True,101.9938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T19:37:43.485000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","(Hi!) +My median pace was around 7200 steps per hour around a month ago, but that of course will drop over time during ",hold,increase,False,True,440377.5264,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:19:33.461000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,How else am I going to anxiously put off studying for my upcoming exam lol,decrease,decrease,True,True,1042.3774,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-09T23:26:48.645000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Easy money if we manage 14 people in the next 35 minutes. +https://manifold.markets/d/will-this-market-attract-at-least",hold,hold,True,True,0.1507,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T09:55:17.369000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Haha. I think most people are just having fun. I wonder tho. How many days with no 00s would you have to see before you',increase,hold,False,True,2578.1314,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:46:44.885000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","it's not the easiest time. It's the only time. There are no other markets to make 25k+ in profits. +And yes, I knew you ",decrease,hold,False,True,135817.3986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:36:05.744000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","That’s why we won’t let it happen! All hail FUH, bravest of walkers, sorest of legs!",decrease,increase,False,True,1800.7002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-22T01:27:03.322000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"6 events in 11 years (2012 +through + 2022), but since 2 events were in a single year, this would have been YES in 5 of",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-22T22:36:02.686000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Imagine if Lex comes in here and just goes all in on YES 😂,decrease,hold,False,True,13564.7953,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-09-25T05:16:33.136000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"No, but it's a data point. Weltwoche is a rightist populist weekly, but the editors are very smart.",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-19T20:29:12.006000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Shorting people's personal goals is ethically fine because it incentivizes people to achieve them.,hold,hold,True,True,1405.0748,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T00:38:32.880000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"No, there are derivative markets based on the closing time that assume the specified closing criteria will be used.",increase,hold,False,True,2791.8621,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-25T22:38:02.279000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I have been looking around 👀 , and my money is on YES ✅",hold,increase,False,True,2662.6055,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T13:51:15.351000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Agreed. No shower. Just dress properly, with multiple layers to adjust if needed. Soup/stock/noodles and coffee to warm ",decrease,hold,False,True,226.5293,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:04:51.706000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"It is very sad that people would sell off their NO shares for a little bit of mana. FWIW, there is going to be an insane",increase,decrease,False,True,64127.1735,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:37:17.284000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"anyways, i set up a limit order at 29% if you want to cash out a bit",decrease,decrease,True,True,2308.1018,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:05:04.503000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I have poured my heart and soul into predicting this market. Resolving it ""N/A"" is simply not an option.",decrease,increase,False,True,160551.083,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-11-11T23:04:03.035000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"Well further down this comment section, it looks like there was a big discussion about alt account shenanigan allegation",hold,increase,False,True,12484.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T22:37:23.407000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Also if cold caused you to fail, buy 6 packs of hot hands and stuff a pair in your toes of your shoes(if comfortable, I ",hold,hold,True,True,450.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T20:37:43.501000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",genuinely second/third/tenth that your above description is more than enough. You have earned good faith on this site. ,increase,increase,True,True,8795.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-08T05:45:14.355000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","As advice, or is this the bribery we're hearing about :)",decrease,hold,False,True,2399.0154,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:18:00.963000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You say that you’re not going to rest easy until this thing closes? Do you mean until this market closes? Why do you car,hold,hold,True,True,15600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-23T00:25:40.130000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,These comments just seem a little disproportionally intense!,flip,decrease,False,True,15449.2992,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-06T16:21:05.484000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Have you ever run a marathon before? Or walked farther than 15 miles in one stretch?,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-15T00:29:50.748000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"Looks like January and March are less likely to have mass shootings, though.",flip,hold,False,True,216.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:09:32.754000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I know right! 😊 💕 +Like it's not impossible that there's like 400 alt accounts. I think we should check just to make su",decrease,decrease,True,True,19502.3711,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T22:53:51.547000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",is right about blisters. That and fueling are the next to things you need to figure out yesterday.,hold,decrease,False,True,258.3523,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:17:38.739000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,This should be the thumbnail of the upcoming video essay.,hold,hold,True,True,5396.5296,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:34:06.507000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Humans are built for long-distance walking. Not occasionally embracing the suck of ultra endurance exercise is a bigger,flip,increase,False,True,10783.8358,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T02:51:13.653000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I'm out. I sold completely. To whoever ate my 20,000 mana position, I only have one thing to say to you.... +..... +Can ",flip,decrease,False,True,14419.5132,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-27T02:02:00.755000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","default on your 50k attempt +line go uppy +I cannot pretend to comprehend the will of the market",hold,decrease,False,True,13000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:18:01.481000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,is scary when he gets serious.,hold,hold,True,True,179891.8873,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:56:43.903000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","in news updates, tagged you there",decrease,hold,False,True,310.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T08:59:35.455000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Isaac better win... If this come down to a debate over alt accounts it's going to be an absolute shit show.,decrease,decrease,True,True,233.6191,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T17:52:03.654000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,is what i see as the latest gigacasting bet. looks like a limit fill though,flip,hold,False,True,750.5876,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:12:19.977000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I agree, but it does support conclusions such as ""some whales are overconfident in their predictions""",decrease,hold,False,True,14024.9149,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-10-17T01:01:23.377000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,It's not just books but asking for recommendations for anything written by Scott Alexander,hold,hold,True,True,37424.5431,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T21:27:43.561000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","The smart money is buying FUH 100k steps in the Market of the Year while it's still cheap, before all the shenanigans st",flip,increase,False,True,611.5126,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T15:23:41.597000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I'd suggested having someone in vc the whole time but having someone physically with him is an even better idea tbh,decrease,increase,False,True,65118.4855,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e98ccfd222734e2c18f0658c16d5cb3103761b0d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,120 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T01:25:44.882000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Does that imply that admins refunded 25K USD?,hold,decrease,False,True,2003.6588,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T00:39:36.654000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"I only have one college degree, but it’s in Chinese Political Science so trust me, you need to update your priors and re",increase,increase,True,True,18319.6433,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-19T00:07:11.604000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Can't imagine a single reason why Putin could be interested,increase,increase,True,True,11400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:49:21.235000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"wait, will you donate +some + of your wins to charity, or hoard all the mana? I'll recruit a bunch of NOs if you don't ",increase,hold,False,True,101.9938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-05-04T05:45:31.163000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"alright, here's a chart from Gun Violence Archive illustrating a (slightly different) picture. My point is still that th",decrease,hold,False,True,1624.3493,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-05T12:59:14.786000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,I don't want to feed into the idea that these markets are bad/cause people to murder. Awkwardly changing the wording doe,decrease,hold,False,True,272.01,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:05:18.642000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",It's the only thing I know how to do on this frightening website!,flip,hold,False,True,85130.6197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-04T14:41:30.177000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"Yeah, for a day X to count, it has to stay below the thresold for 3 consecutive days",hold,hold,True,True,90727.2138,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:55:20.327000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,where are you getting the ~20 estimate for how many of the NO traders are alts/bots? That seems implausibly small.,flip,decrease,False,True,132.003,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:33:29.111000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",If I were him I’d be so sick of walking I’d need to run to get it over with.,flip,hold,False,True,2824.7997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-23T05:31:38.675000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,In what way is it a whale game?,decrease,hold,False,True,14033.9177,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T20:46:23.515000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Dude, let it drop. If you’re not interested move along. If you think the odds are too high, take a larger position. If y",flip,hold,False,True,1656.6636,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-12T06:10:08.209000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't really get the point of this question. Why is it interesting whether China reports 25M cases by the end of 2023?,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:23:49.249000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"is lucky this happened here and that the Manifold peeps are so empathetic. Let me tell you, when I got hyper-focused on ",hold,decrease,False,True,6326.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-05T12:52:27.475000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,but it should go down with each month right?,increase,decrease,False,True,10.5471,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:02:37.056000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Literally just buy NO instead, it's way more profitable, don't fall for his tricks!",hold,increase,False,True,19501.3711,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-07T14:46:09.168000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"Once FUH really starts putting the steps in, he’ll start gaining more leg muscle mass, and slow down the weight loss. O",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-18T01:28:32.270000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,This seems... completely pointless?,flip,decrease,False,True,1260.0485,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T13:58:02.413000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I’m a NO holder, smarty pants.",decrease,hold,False,True,226.5293,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:17:18.466000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Maybe you can ask FUH to bail you out when they become a mana millionaire tomorrow,increase,hold,False,True,3500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T05:54:26.880000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",All my money's on Sam Altman. I can't buy this market down anymore.,hold,hold,True,True,331956.5524,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:46:21.069000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-lexfridman-interview-volodymyr?r=QlRF +this is much more likely. Lex was born in Ukrai",increase,flip,False,True,715.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T20:33:37.256000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",You don’t get to keep your mvp badge if you did this. 😂,increase,decrease,False,True,4250.5905,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T01:51:06.724000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,Is this your fault? Have you done this to me? Are you the one who snuck onto my computer and created a 20k position on a,flip,decrease,False,True,16210.7043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:21:48.404000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),I'll try more extreme measures after 100k attempt. That attempt alone burns enough calories to offset 1.5kgs,decrease,increase,False,True,77670.9996,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T11:34:08.717000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",That’s rly valuable info to me ty!,flip,hold,False,True,1819.0009,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:32:51.206000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,even if we tank it to 0.1% doubt Isaac can buy enough 😜,hold,increase,False,True,3113.1819,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-04T21:15:43.736000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,Or if a person dies days later in the hospital would that count?,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:19:27.869000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),with only 2 weeks left and prioritizing rest days for 100k steps is likely jeopardizing this goal. I wish I was 1 kg fur,decrease,decrease,True,True,77670.9996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-21T21:26:10.080000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Hey, yeah, done +Edit: PS Didnt get around to doing the 50k attempt either, got busy with work.",hold,decrease,False,True,327090.1873,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T06:52:20.442000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I'm not going to try to accomplish this at the expense of the weight loss goal, but in the week leading up to the 100k a",hold,decrease,False,True,433317.5264,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:27:56.270000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",ok i think mine’s the accurate one; still pretty much on pace,flip,hold,False,True,2584.3994,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-15T01:59:08.558000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"Everyone is different so I can only use my own experience as a reference, but it looks like there hasn't been enough lea",flip,flip,True,True,20.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:14:39.794000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,This isn't possible because of the pseudorandom resolution. It could end any minute. Nobody knows.,increase,decrease,False,True,148056.3649,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:48:53.986000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Everyone lost this market. No side lost their mana, Isaac lost $22000...",flip,hold,False,True,1322.9181,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:45:16.326000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Lmao EA causes? No, he is not making any such donation. He's giving manifold money , which is an indirect effect but goe",increase,hold,False,True,137.8983,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:03:19.805000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Oh really, who? Name all of the, ""hundreds,"" who are better candidates and who would be better than Lex. Maybe you are o",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T00:04:27.375000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",or the garmin dies at 95k and we’ll never know how it ends,decrease,decrease,True,True,157.6218,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:11:33.352000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I can't wait until it's over. I thought i'd never cheer the bitcoin miners to work faster.,flip,decrease,False,True,9203.832,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T00:18:17.403000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"My dude, only 12M of the WHO covid cases occurred in 2023, which was in the preamble to SA's prediction contest. However",increase,decrease,False,True,70.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-04-04T03:47:49.465000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Whether that ""piece"" is a manifesto or just an article remains to be seen. However seeing that Destiny said that it's on",increase,increase,True,True,1015.6123,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T19:18:09.104000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why are you holding these 69% YES orders?,increase,decrease,False,True,42948.1859,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:53:09.975000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Yes holders if you don't get it: you can 1. Get you money out risk free and bet a fraction of it on No potentially gett,flip,flip,True,True,1692.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-03T15:33:39.362000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"Ofc I want to be supportive, but I suppose this is a truth seeking website. This market is the second best buy after the",hold,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-18T05:46:28.702000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Not the person you’re responding to but I doubt someone would be able to trivially work 8 hours and then make up 100,000",increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:50:23.801000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,How many of those are isaac’s bot swarm that he’s gonna pull out,flip,decrease,False,True,138758.0821,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-11-03T12:44:33.317000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"It probably would count according to the market creator's definition below: +https://manifold.markets/iteal/will-destin",flip,decrease,False,True,6829.6068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T05:34:42.151000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,">getting his mana back won't get his money back. +They’re getting a (I think at least partial) refund from Manifold.",increase,decrease,False,True,72.4045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T08:59:35.455000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Isaac better win... If this come down to a debate over alt accounts it's going to be an absolute shit show.,decrease,decrease,True,True,233.6191,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T21:49:37.698000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",There will not be a second attempt. This is the one!,flip,increase,False,True,2332.1795,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:22:00.461000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Wait right i copied the wrong thing ty,flip,hold,False,True,2324.3994,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-19T12:40:01.610000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"Ehh, I find the social aspect fun: +- I prefer collaborative truth seeking to individualist +- There is a chance that I ",hold,decrease,False,True,7500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-15T00:20:48.826000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"I think the Poisson model mentioned by + was probably a model quantized using mass shootings with over 20 deaths as ind",flip,decrease,False,True,216.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-05T00:18:50.604000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"I mean, if the person dies in the hospital from bullet wounds I would say that would count. If they died from falling do",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T23:03:55.135000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"at this close the minnows have points 949 (-alts undetermined) +at this close the whales have points of 555 + 13to15 = ",flip,hold,False,True,53.3105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T13:03:08.244000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,2 BTC to this market and the Whales could be winning,hold,flip,False,True,36400.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:33:09.756000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I'll be real surprised if he manages to run in the end.,decrease,hold,False,True,31.3306,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T15:23:48.170000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,at this point you are saying that manifold can't ethically make money by selling mana. That's fair. (Selling fake money ,increase,decrease,False,True,77713.4596,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-05-05T18:38:40.503000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Payout coming soon. He's talking about needing a writer for ""manifesto-stuff"" in this clip: +https://www.reddit.com/r/D",hold,increase,False,True,10168.6694,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:17:57.635000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"I'm still net 180k shares on yes. In just the last 2 days, I lost half a kg, but today I've barely moved. I think its po",decrease,decrease,True,True,77670.9996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T17:52:03.654000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,is what i see as the latest gigacasting bet. looks like a limit fill though,flip,hold,False,True,750.5876,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-12T14:14:20.912000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"We could ask + for clarification.But maybe not until after Full Mode completes, since the Blind Mode folks would not ha",hold,hold,True,True,55.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T19:04:17.426000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Hmmm.... How about you fit the data to an exponential curve,decrease,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:50:47.829000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"if we interpret it charitably, it takes a while before manifold itself agrees on a position. They don't work as fast at ",increase,decrease,False,True,3420.3912,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T12:52:29.289000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Seconded. Cryotherapy/icing/ice baths etc feel good for some people but the evidence for their efficacy is mixed at best,decrease,hold,False,True,215.7268,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T16:45:03.418000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","FWIW, I am an early No buyer, but I am at ~75% right now. While I think the odds are slim if OP hasn't prepared, at this",decrease,decrease,True,True,3977.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-10-02T04:26:25.965000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"Not at all! Started this market in June with 4 books, I believe. It's more of a 1/2 a year, and 1/2 the books thing, ex",decrease,decrease,True,True,37313.5431,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-13T15:26:18.198000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"600 Now, Because I believe. I want to believe.",increase,increase,True,True,577.7177,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:56:09.736000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","hm, if it's the only time, that definitely seems to imply it's the easiest time... (but there are other high-volume mark",hold,hold,True,True,3284.0382,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-27T13:28:14.467000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","if one makes one step every second for 1 hour straight, you would not get to 4k steps, yet 7.5k steps in an hr is averag",hold,decrease,False,True,328532.3779,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T01:20:37.838000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","While not the best comparison since it is relatively small amounts, my account is up over 2700% from two weeks ago. 15% ",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T09:39:58.452000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I disagree on the ice baths. I think the evidence for them is shakier than many think, and if fuh doesn't use them norma",increase,decrease,False,True,213.1255,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T03:10:59.762000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","We’ve all considered the things before betting. That’s why we’re here. Some of us bet YES. Some of us bet NO. As for me,",increase,decrease,False,True,352.728,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-22T02:43:58.100000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"I'm praying he's listening to audiobooks right now a short one, called ""how to crush them steps""",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:15:31.190000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,don't be shy guys I don't bite 😉,decrease,hold,False,True,19501.3711,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:16:53.998000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,why the fuck did you buy YES you goddamn traitor,increase,decrease,False,True,8989.5548,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-09-19T13:38:29.969000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"unlikely. The best I can do rn is keep my current pace and do 5 books a month, very moderate. +23 done + 2-3 ongoing pu",hold,decrease,False,True,37313.5431,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T04:15:57.967000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",How long did the 50k effort take?,hold,hold,True,True,2638.5913,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:19:40.972000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),that's because you can't possibly get rid of that many shares quickly,decrease,hold,False,True,2308.1018,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T00:12:57.381000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Read the description: +""If the community calls it a manifesto and it quickly gets a name similar to the ""N-word Manifest",decrease,increase,False,True,64.6139,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T21:09:10.076000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"There is an opportunity cost to doing all of that. Basically, your logic can be just as easily applied to going to 10000",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:27:40.643000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Word! Just curious how we're recommended to engage in propaganda wars in a more wholesome fashion 😃,decrease,hold,False,True,19501.3711,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-20T21:07:22.476000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Can you screenshot it? I do not use discord as a principle after their absolutely terrible privacy and data selling poli,increase,decrease,False,True,463.4639,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-13T07:52:47.020000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I walked that distance (25m) but I was walking all day, 10 hours very very casual. I had feet that were tired, my spirit",increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-29T21:39:05.048000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,i can't find that tweet on his twitter,flip,hold,False,True,93.9731,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:17:52.885000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","🧡🧡🧡 +(I'm holding no but I'm still cheering for you big time)",flip,hold,False,True,82.8091,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:55:30.154000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I was supportive of that idea +😅",decrease,decrease,True,True,310.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T02:51:13.653000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I'm out. I sold completely. To whoever ate my 20,000 mana position, I only have one thing to say to you.... +..... +Can ",flip,decrease,False,True,14419.5132,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:20:00.583000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I'm still buying NO at around 80%, there are no new data from FUH and his last update being below the target pace. Also ",hold,decrease,False,True,15900.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-16T17:13:27.562000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","If the chart is showing old data for you too, push the refresh button on the top right! I think iOS caches things in the",hold,hold,True,True,213.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:06:23.587000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"It's very time sensitive guys, we need to find people as quickly as possible!",hold,decrease,False,True,19481.3711,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-11T22:39:20.987000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"There's a good chance that OWID just stop reporting Covid numbers when we get to April. They rely on JHU, who are going ",decrease,increase,False,True,2599.5449,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-14T20:10:21.871000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",iirc someone (maybe me?) has asked previously if these are real steps,hold,decrease,False,True,2744.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T21:18:15.530000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",If you have an adhd prescription now's the time to drop an adderall btw ^^,hold,increase,False,True,2500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-22T14:04:44.171000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"I think now is the best time to push this goal. You probably lost a bunch of weight in the 100k attempt, and you will ne",decrease,increase,False,True,1117.4081,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T16:20:02.014000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Not to mention the time it took for the last unreleased ""manifesto"" to find a writer to write it out yadda yadda. +This",decrease,increase,False,True,1256.9543,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:19:01.777000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If you explained what the numbers mean to them, I think those diamond hands might appreciate it.",flip,increase,False,True,22080.4123,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-15T05:52:12.213000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"wow, why is my known alt on trial? And please don't post 10 pics, it makes it hard to scroll. I've literally not hidden ",hold,hold,True,True,11.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T00:33:11.285000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,oh god why is my position in this market so big. When did this even happen I think somebody hacked me and made these bet,flip,decrease,False,True,19087.2507,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:51:54.168000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Go ahead and create a market on whether the sun will rise tomorrow. I will bet on it. You can try misresolving it, see i",decrease,hold,False,True,16195.7275,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9994b2c43c7a0a6d0a651a058a6f676a4ee1377a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,125 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:56:15.316000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,NO betters please stop buying NO. You'll are giving away YES shares at a discount by doing so.,increase,flip,False,True,156.9925,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:17:52.885000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","🧡🧡🧡 +(I'm holding no but I'm still cheering for you big time)",flip,hold,False,True,82.8091,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:39:55.717000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"In a true prediction market, there shouldn't be any incentive to pay people to take certain positions to begin with. I t",hold,decrease,False,True,6165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:27:48.798000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"There is currently some arbitraging possibility betting NO here and in the ""lose"" markets : +https://manifold.markets/Z",decrease,hold,False,True,9.5607,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-25T07:41:32.581000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"I wish you the best of luck, but I'm more pessimistic about keeping the weight off for 3 consecutive days than you doing",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-26T23:16:15.201000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),to clarify: does the third day (since you say you will only resolve yes if you're below the target) need to fall within ,hold,decrease,False,True,106.8972,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:45:40.842000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Isaac have 47k$ at risk YET, i hope you have good enough imagination to see why it would be hilarious for NO team to win",increase,increase,True,True,26606.1075,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:37:52.868000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","power naps, but you see how the start is slo- wait the start is faster.. did he walk in his sleep mayhaps",flip,decrease,False,True,1715.0232,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T05:58:36.651000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Wait, is that a whole Reddit where people do nothing but sit around sneering at Eliezer Yudkowsky & co.? For the last 8 ",decrease,decrease,True,True,148258.1317,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:38:36.950000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,the people are speaking that they want it 😂,increase,flip,False,True,138713.4596,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:02:13.871000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Inb4 +will aaron baileys wife divorce him for manifold use before 2025",decrease,hold,False,True,133917.3986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:36:23.270000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"actually, I think they are maybe concerned right now",increase,decrease,False,True,2118.1769,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-09T15:34:42.877000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Are we talking normal steps, or are baby steps permitted?",flip,hold,False,True,100.0062,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:38:27.522000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",That’s for adding “prediction” to prediction market. All part of the masta plan,flip,hold,False,True,2684.3994,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:38:18.056000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why is this all the sudden an issue now and not when Isaac actually made the purchase? Now that he’s about to “lose”? H,hold,hold,True,True,15600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-10T22:37:09.657000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",actually wormholes allow you to go faster so fuh should watch Dune before walking,hold,hold,True,True,260.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T05:35:14.923000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Don't say that - whalebait markets need appropriate levels of drama.,decrease,hold,False,True,148258.1317,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:39:39.652000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","okay solidarity walk lfg +I'm going with the Canadian national anthem, seems like the most appropriate soundtrack here 🫡",hold,increase,False,True,310.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T17:03:00.876000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"What exactly counts as ""publish""? What if he releases a video where he reads a manifesto and does not share a link to th",flip,decrease,False,True,45.9267,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-29T21:40:46.537000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"oh 2022 +it should be federally illegal to disallow api access and have a worthless search function imo. goes for both t",flip,hold,False,True,93.9731,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-25T22:38:02.279000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I have been looking around 👀 , and my money is on YES ✅",hold,increase,False,True,2662.6055,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T02:55:27.392000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,every person you recruit is basically $100 to charity,increase,hold,False,True,61647.1735,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T22:25:15.203000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Current score: Team Whale 575 points, Team Minnow 949 (minus bots and alts)",increase,hold,False,True,8248.5808,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-28T14:39:09.149000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,I think existing trustworthy users should be able to vote for others. I will find a way to petition for this because I t,decrease,hold,False,True,3743.6447,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-20T23:08:26.964000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Lex is a Russian/Ukrainian born in Kiev who works at mit or whatever. Plus also Elon Musk’s buddy. During their last con,increase,decrease,False,True,780.5117,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T08:05:45.485000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1187502131490590770 + this thread, because I had to find it.",flip,hold,False,True,97.6516,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T21:40:21.354000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","wow, this is why I need to keep more mana in my account. I had canceled limit orders all the way up to 99%!",flip,decrease,False,True,1234.0849,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T08:20:32.808000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","At this point you have to assume every comment @MarcusAbramovitch leaves on this market is a shitpost + in case it's not",hold,decrease,False,True,310.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-22T01:17:42.333000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",for what it’s worth I’m pretty confident (>95%) that he won’t cheat significantly (like lying about the # of steps he to,flip,hold,False,True,229.7734,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-11T00:00:54.657000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,LMAO. The OWID data is useless now because the Johns Hopkins team is no longer updating their dataset. Best case for you,increase,increase,True,True,17514.2816,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-21T23:12:57.893000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,I'm arguing for it to resolve NO??? I'm on your side!,increase,hold,False,True,147.9222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:51:44.892000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"already linked on telegram, but the link to that comment saying he would not donate: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKin",decrease,hold,False,True,2535.9965,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-10T12:35:06.488000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,What's the go to place to download audiobooks for free? Audible kinda sucks with 1 credit a month and how little royalty,hold,increase,False,True,35672.5538,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:44:18.511000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,> Would be funny if this market resolved N/A because the margin of error on alt detection is much larger than the margin,increase,decrease,False,True,51739.0881,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-08T12:19:37.488000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",well you invested 262000 and payout is 642000 so for you profits are 380000 and 785000 +380000 <1300000 so Marcus would ,hold,hold,True,True,1296.6333,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T20:37:33.005000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"He was not reading from a Manifesto, that is simply an incorrect statement. It could be argued that the stream was based",flip,increase,False,True,14749.2992,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-10T02:35:33.212000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Double socking, with a thin synthetic sock under a thicker sock can be GREAT for preventing blisters. +I'd also be wary ",increase,increase,True,True,2300.9407,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:21:39.938000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Get ready for an all-out battle in Whale Watchers: Season 1 Episode 5 - Revenge of the Minnows! 🐳🐟 +Don't miss the epic ",flip,hold,False,True,457.483,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:46:14.101000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Resolve it 50% in that case? Because the market is still applicable, just the outcome remains uncertain. +Council should",decrease,decrease,True,True,185391.8873,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:17:35.344000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"welcome comrad, don't get greedy and remember: the game is not over yet",increase,decrease,False,True,37746.895,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T22:35:52.246000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I don't want to be 😭 . I want you to do it! I just got some unexpected windfall from Mira,increase,hold,False,True,6206.9419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T19:51:20.894000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",??? At midnight the count resets anyway?,decrease,flip,False,True,15250.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T02:05:35.755000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,No bro literally nothing happened. Destiny went on stream and cried a bit about how mean Mel is. What you are witnessing,flip,decrease,False,True,15490.4052,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:46:44.885000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","it's not the easiest time. It's the only time. There are no other markets to make 25k+ in profits. +And yes, I knew you ",hold,hold,True,True,135817.3986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T22:08:45.524000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Hopium is the difference between those who finish ultramarathons and those who never start them.,flip,increase,False,True,2332.1795,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:40:26.253000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Literal black lotus of mana here.,flip,hold,False,True,1322.9181,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:37:06.960000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","This can't be right, where is when they slept?",decrease,decrease,True,True,18355.8211,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-10T22:00:15.108000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",You should do a 50k attempt starting at midday the day before the 100k attempt. It will really get you in the right head,increase,flip,False,True,6441.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:38:59.548000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I find this graph a bit strange. As the day goes by the pace should decrease -- but he is holding it fairly constant. Th,increase,decrease,False,True,1830.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-10T20:03:36.162000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"If you try and model extreme values, eg the maximum per year, then the theoretical distribution of the max (regardless o",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T02:10:06.269000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Why the hell are you asking me? There's a good chance this ends with my 20k position being in the correct, but me perfec",flip,decrease,False,True,15106.2113,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T01:51:06.724000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,Is this your fault? Have you done this to me? Are you the one who snuck onto my computer and created a 20k position on a,flip,decrease,False,True,16210.7043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:06:11.480000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",There are many of us. We deserve compassion.,flip,hold,False,True,2724.7997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T00:33:44.997000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,Bought almost my entire balance and would buy my alt's balance too if I hadn't decided never to use them both in the sam,increase,increase,True,True,64.6139,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:43:46.728000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",It’s funny enough that I wouldn’t even be mad,decrease,hold,False,True,1762.8673,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-18T09:36:08.484000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"It's recommended that you speak to your GP before doing >1 day water fast. It can be dangerous - for example, they often",hold,decrease,False,True,2300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-30T06:04:16.848000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),that just makes it easier for FUH to get cheap shares from you since he still has ~47 hours to fast.,flip,hold,False,True,82.7554,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T22:35:32.717000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I'm the opposite, caffeine messes with my heart rate but modafinil does not.",increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-08-04T21:03:27.795000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"Scott posted a clarification +here + that says it is the number of cases in 2023, not the total number of cases in 2023",flip,hold,False,True,2391.8438,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-18T06:29:40.185000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I understood the 47/50(?) Was a night walk before sleep, then two walks after that being afternoon and evening, I assume",hold,decrease,False,True,747.1677,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T00:02:12.396000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Thank you for giving me cheap NO shares,decrease,hold,False,True,1806.7803,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T23:03:20.979000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",hm fair enough. I didn't think about that while selling because I forgot about it but that's on me :(,hold,decrease,False,True,487666.6405,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-11T22:54:26.875000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"Ah nice, thanks. My switch to YES when JHU said they were going to incorporate WHO data at ~90% was extra dumb then...",decrease,decrease,True,True,2599.5449,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-09T21:34:11.590000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","“Step on me, daddy” - a no voter, probably",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T05:23:22.571000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Which is stronger? My rivalry with + ? Or my team spirit with the rest of team Minnow?",decrease,hold,False,True,148258.1317,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-21T22:58:28.753000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,YOU. STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET.,increase,decrease,False,True,19973.8061,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T04:07:53.431000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I know! But for some reason he seemed to have a lot more under his belt,decrease,flip,False,True,225.1928,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-19T00:07:11.604000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Can't imagine a single reason why Putin could be interested,hold,increase,False,True,11400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-10T23:45:51.364000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","My uncle who worked at microsoft tried to do this once. His heart exploded at 90,000. Bone fragments maimed three bystan",decrease,increase,False,True,22784.0157,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T21:34:48.231000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","but congrats lol, what shape were you in at the time? A frequent hiker or no?",decrease,hold,False,True,443.0343,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-04T00:01:34.076000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),ah that's a factor I didn't consider. any changes in your dietary habits this time of year? absent of religion or tradit,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-08-04T22:50:27.445000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,If your argument is that the resolution criteria should govern no matter what (even when the title is wrong and inconsis,hold,decrease,False,True,4427.3836,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:58:20.849000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,It doesn't help minnows if you have 1 NO vs 1000 NO. In fact buying more NO makes it easier for YES holders to buy YES a,increase,decrease,False,True,156.9925,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-15T05:52:12.213000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"wow, why is my known alt on trial? And please don't post 10 pics, it makes it hard to scroll. I've literally not hidden ",hold,hold,True,True,11.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:53:02.227000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Isaac is accumulating through his alt accounts. NO betters are selling into them and giving away YES shares for cheap.,decrease,decrease,True,True,156.9925,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T14:55:15.458000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Yeah plus a bunch of whales made a lot of their profit in whalebait markets, which are not really predictive.",decrease,hold,False,True,14024.9149,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T23:10:31.390000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Long live the king Catnee (Bot) i guess,hold,hold,True,True,5838.9067,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-20T09:10:40.014000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,I'd tip you for the write up if I could,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:35:47.706000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"STOP BUYING NO. +The market is still on going, +This is making no shares easy to purchase. And making it counter-produ",increase,decrease,False,True,135.8348,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-19T20:30:19.226000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Keep buying No, then if he does it, he gets your mana too! +Myself, I'm buying and selling from time to time and also pu",increase,hold,False,True,909.3391,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-14T14:10:40.098000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,on the last few pages of Kafka on the shore :'),decrease,hold,False,True,35672.5538,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T18:29:55.794000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I'd be interested to know what you're basing this on. Are there updates somewhere I'm not aware of? The last update I sa,decrease,decrease,True,True,678.0805,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:38:59.908000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Would be extremely funny if he walks across a time zone in order to give himself an extra hour. I think nothing in the d,hold,hold,True,True,401.2935,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-10T18:24:29.723000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Kanye west has a bigger chance than Lex.,increase,hold,False,True,607.0094,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:19:01.777000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If you explained what the numbers mean to them, I think those diamond hands might appreciate it.",flip,increase,False,True,22080.4123,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T01:12:38.680000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"It seems the unstoppable + has bested the unmovable + . +Will Catnee be the new king of manifold? +Or will he lose all",decrease,hold,False,True,193195.7332,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-22T22:36:02.686000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Imagine if Lex comes in here and just goes all in on YES 😂,hold,hold,True,True,13564.7953,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T23:49:17.682000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I'm pleased to see that Manifold is going to step in and refund part of the Money to Isaac. Going forward, Manifold coul",flip,hold,False,True,12614.4419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-14T00:08:46.114000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Got no expertise on sleep, and no experience with walking a lot, but am confused by the idea of sleeping during the chal",decrease,decrease,True,True,399.3406,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-11-03T12:44:33.317000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"It probably would count according to the market creator's definition below: +https://manifold.markets/iteal/will-destin",flip,decrease,False,True,6829.6068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T22:35:00.691000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","somehow the biggest NO holder, crazy",hold,flip,False,True,487666.6405,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T17:35:50.426000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I spend my life savings winning YES? Vote by liking,flip,decrease,False,True,677.189,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,decrease,flip,False,True,185627.3121,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-23T00:23:59.963000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,bro are you ok? Holidays are hard for many of us buddy I feel you,hold,hold,True,True,15449.2992,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-14T22:07:21.891000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"before someone points to this specific case, i would like to know this in general. +If i abandon firstuserhere today and",hold,flip,False,True,750.5876,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-23T20:39:11.263000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Who even is this guy? Pretty sure it's not happening lol,flip,hold,False,True,4.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:31:00.704000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Now we just need Elon Musk to yell GAMESTONK and shove a billion mana into this market :D,flip,hold,False,True,1398.7398,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-08-28T00:08:20.773000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I am not a member of Vladimir Putin's inner circle, or of Lex Fridman's. So I have no special information regarding thei",decrease,decrease,True,True,6059.3155,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:08:21.722000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Do you mean he would get his mana back? Once he placed the massive bet using real money, he was never going to get any r",hold,hold,True,True,15600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:00:43.401000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"You know, it was quite greedy of the NO holders to buy tons of NO shares and not contribute to recruitment efforts, leav",decrease,decrease,True,True,148258.1317,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d3c4d951e27e2c360cb8bfd66315b6f705eb035f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,138 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-06T21:02:47.064000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","this makes me think one of you will sell all their shares, because neither of you have ever lost 250000 Mana on anything",hold,decrease,False,True,1296.6333,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T18:47:15.339000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","He's been commenting in Eliza's markets: +https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-firstuserhere-walk-over-85000#dp2TIVD3EmP",decrease,hold,False,True,9788.3438,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-23T20:26:57.874000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I didn’t do it on purpose, but I think it turned out to be a good choice not to specifically mention the podcast. If thi",decrease,increase,False,True,2328.3633,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-25T12:23:41.060000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"Dear Santifold, +I want for Christmas today, the following: +Sincerly, +SirCryptomind",increase,hold,False,True,1177.7177,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T02:52:01.191000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Privately getting an exemption to a rule that you are quoting in the market description as applying to the market is... ,increase,decrease,False,True,3552.3116,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:45:55.532000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Team Whale currently has ~569 points (for ~5,697,656 YES shares). +Team Minnow currently has 675 - ~20 = ~655 points.",increase,hold,False,True,600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:09:34.572000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",isn't this a good time to cancel YES limit orders above 50%? like when news is coming any minute now,flip,decrease,False,True,3258.6754,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:43:18.245000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"and if Isaac is unable or unwilling to make good on his obligations, then he should be actioned in some way, absolutely.",hold,hold,True,True,238.5069,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:53:23.234000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","🤦🏻‍♂️ not this market +This + market. Too many markets.",flip,decrease,False,True,175.6218,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T17:52:03.654000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,is what i see as the latest gigacasting bet. looks like a limit fill though,flip,hold,False,True,750.5876,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-29T21:40:46.537000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"oh 2022 +it should be federally illegal to disallow api access and have a worthless search function imo. goes for both t",flip,hold,False,True,93.9731,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-06T03:40:17.371000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"6'3""ish, according to a comment earlier in this market",increase,hold,False,True,3000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-08T05:38:47.713000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",He failed at 50k and people are buying the market up?,decrease,decrease,True,True,129117.3986,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:12:41.261000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Probably a mix of DGG and friend recruits,increase,hold,False,True,350.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T15:25:00.022000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"This has been a wild market. I was pissed when I saw Isaac pull into the lead, and now I am deeply remorseful for Isaac.",hold,decrease,False,True,130.2683,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T23:02:38.965000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,that's pseudorandom so it is acceptable,flip,hold,False,True,53.3105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-11-09T19:17:44.907000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"Yes, this resolves YES if the Moderator badge is granted, given the badge rename.",hold,hold,True,True,1020.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:25:10.246000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,This market is based on number of traders. Each new trader requires the same amount of mana to resolve yes.,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:27:22.353000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Actually I was wondering: he’s disallowed running by his own description, right?",flip,decrease,False,True,2824.7997,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:56:49.062000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"no no all other whales are making a whale coalition 😢 it's being made right now, I just heard from sources.",increase,decrease,False,True,137.8983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T23:50:54.730000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Closing due to a random bug in the closing script instead of a '00' Bitcoin block actually seems like a fitting end to t,decrease,hold,False,True,19501.3711,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T01:12:38.680000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"It seems the unstoppable + has bested the unmovable + . +Will Catnee be the new king of manifold? +Or will he lose all",hold,hold,True,True,193195.7332,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-20T23:19:23.177000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,I don't think Putin would openly speak with anyone but his puppets. I don't think Musk is one: he just isn't afraid to o,increase,increase,True,True,16400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-14T19:41:50.882000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"China has now ""officially"" +reported 60,000 Covid deaths + since they ended the Zero Covid policy. This means it is mor",increase,increase,True,True,5947.7153,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T20:57:05.671000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",All that but no boots. Any extra weight on your feet is going to kill your chances at getting in so many steps.,decrease,decrease,True,True,13.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:48:32.008000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","tempted to have a line of best fit be like 0.0156* +x^ +3−0.4803* +x^ +2+7.9503* +x - +5.8319 indicating you will end 2",flip,increase,False,True,1715.0232,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:21:15.805000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Please bet NO. You won't win much with YES,increase,increase,True,True,170.0059,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-10-28T08:24:42.252000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,and shooter found dead from suicide. 19?,hold,decrease,False,True,420.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-21T08:06:40.598000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,I don't think there's any call for that sort of meanness.,flip,hold,False,True,120.613,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-20T09:10:40.014000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,I'd tip you for the write up if I could,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-11-28T17:50:45.197000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"It's relatively likely that Destiny would write one eventually, there is nobody he loves to hate more than Hassan. But I",flip,decrease,False,True,6790.2613,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:04:51.428000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Something I find really sad is that +, +, and + won't have to go through every account and make an individual determi",increase,hold,False,True,137713.4596,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-20T22:37:13.104000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"hedging, yes, taking a bit of break from manifold also, for a week cuz I have to travel anyway + I didn't like the way ",hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T19:57:59.507000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Reduce my risk in case Isaac decides to buy another car worth of mana,increase,decrease,False,True,13219.4733,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-17T22:58:05.194000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",just freeing mana for a while due to sama news,hold,decrease,False,True,321216.6695,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:54:45.946000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I dm'd him and had to be careful how I phrased things, so it was more a ""nearly over/victory laps"" etc type comment... Y",flip,decrease,False,True,784.843,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:09:32.754000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I know right! 😊 💕 +Like it's not impossible that there's like 400 alt accounts. I think we should check just to make su",decrease,decrease,True,True,19502.3711,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T18:17:13.050000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",excited to see him cross the finish line today,decrease,flip,False,True,133917.3986,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:04:01.612000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,All the NO holders should cash out their earnings now and let Isaac win.,increase,decrease,False,True,827.0262,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T02:57:02.926000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Or to manifold markets, if Isaac doesn't decide to spend his mana to charity. Which is still a decent cause :-)",flip,hold,False,True,3517.8226,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2022-12-26T05:27:20.140000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-national-health-commission-stop-publishing-daily-covid-figures-2022-12-25/ + ",increase,increase,True,True,1498.9227,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-04-04T03:47:49.465000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Whether that ""piece"" is a manifesto or just an article remains to be seen. However seeing that Destiny said that it's on",increase,increase,True,True,1015.6123,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T23:30:54.264000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",""" +for an achievement people look at for a second and then move on with the rest of their day"" +He looks at it for 18+ h",flip,flip,True,True,742.843,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2022-12-30T20:08:50.297000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"People who find + 's resolution criterion objectionable may want to bet in this market:",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-03-09T22:56:12.611000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"the lefty wars are done, hes banned from twitch, and hes learned to stay away from trans issues to avoid getting nuked. ",increase,increase,True,True,1670.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:24:09.190000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Gotta get that adrenaline push to the finish line. Go get’em, FUH!!!",flip,increase,False,True,2824.7997,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-04-04T14:48:31.576000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Bob7 was 17 pages. Keffals being on sub stack is harder to count, but copy/pasting it into google docs comes out to abou",hold,hold,True,True,600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T13:05:08.214000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Now maybe you need to recruit some more NO buyers to make him go as far as possible :3,increase,increase,True,True,265.6877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-29T23:00:34.148000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I have 26k YES shares, doubt I'm bullshitting 😉",decrease,increase,False,True,3618.9662,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-29T17:34:49.452000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"Yes, the wink was meant as a joke, but I think it is some evidence that FUH isn't inclined to feast on holidays, especia",flip,increase,False,True,1526.8276,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:42:56.325000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","If I sell right now I get €3 mana back, I just watched it go from €26 to €3 as I was checking",flip,decrease,False,True,784.843,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T17:42:37.198000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",For those who don't click in to the spreadsheet page.,flip,hold,False,True,2909.3391,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T17:35:50.426000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I spend my life savings winning YES? Vote by liking,flip,decrease,False,True,677.189,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T01:22:21.881000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Proceeds to go and snoop at Chris's recent big bets... +Not many big ones! A lot of small ones. And I'd appreciate if an",increase,hold,False,True,1002.79,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T23:27:24.161000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,perhaps start a gofundme market in manifold and have the crowd donate some mana to you. I'll chip in 200,flip,increase,False,True,13577.3611,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T03:52:02.451000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"literally the entire community has been calling it the ""Melifesto"" or similar names. you're hard coping if you think the",hold,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T21:19:25.569000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,I personally didn't read it assuming it was ChatGPT-generated.,flip,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-07-24T13:58:27.054000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,i agree i may have bought the market a bit too high but it just serves as incentive now,decrease,decrease,True,True,21868.4735,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-22T01:25:42.983000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",that's an order of magnitude smaller a stake,increase,decrease,False,True,350.2606,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T23:53:18.729000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","re: blisters +The key is to prevent them from occurring rather than handling them after they develop. +I recommend pre-",hold,increase,False,True,2640.4944,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T08:20:32.808000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","At this point you have to assume every comment @MarcusAbramovitch leaves on this market is a shitpost + in case it's not",decrease,decrease,True,True,310.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T23:05:38.680000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Gosh.... blockchain God planking on me once again?,hold,decrease,False,True,16423.7275,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:51:54.168000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Go ahead and create a market on whether the sun will rise tomorrow. I will bet on it. You can try misresolving it, see i",decrease,hold,False,True,16195.7275,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-06T19:09:17.847000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,Did some extreme value analysis using the last 10 years of data on mass shootings. Fitting Gumbel distribution for the y,increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-09T21:03:40.941000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",If you get tired: imagine yourself stomping on a laughing no voter with each step.,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-10-25T15:09:49.712000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"brilliant! I've finally started it, read the first chapter. What a cool concept so far. Plus the preface was so nice too",decrease,increase,False,True,37424.5431,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T20:16:46.206000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,what would happen if NO wins and Isaac gets banned?,increase,decrease,False,True,11034.0118,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:38:36.275000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I think this is referring to all of our raised cortisol levels.,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:18:22.804000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Love to see another brother in arms! Welcome! ❤,decrease,hold,False,True,19501.3711,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T02:20:45.391000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","that's not what I said +or + what I meant. I specifically said that if their next attempt is unbounded, it won't be 100",hold,hold,True,True,14000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-21T22:50:53.198000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,since when? he already wrote one and is just reading it out,hold,decrease,False,True,675.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T08:38:02.977000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I realize that's a small incentive though. Another incentive is that people will like you more and complain less about t,increase,hold,False,True,101.9938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:39:24.661000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,everyone can look at your profile and judge for themselves.,decrease,hold,False,True,16195.7275,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:16:54.491000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,No? Minnows are recruiting by going to forums and people bet on their own will or dont if they dont wanna. That's why mi,increase,hold,False,True,99.5638,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-08T01:46:17.822000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",yeah don't be a cuck and plan on a lot of rest/sleep; get that the night before by going to sleep early. When I did Lon,hold,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:35:07.147000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Don't worry we'll both be selling our no shares in the morning. Good job putting fake internet money over real relations,decrease,decrease,True,True,1042.3774,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T04:33:03.633000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"yes, he won't get his money back. but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be compassionate; he is still a person, he has feel",hold,decrease,False,True,100.8786,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-11T12:31:57.556000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",One huge crux for me on this market: am I correct in understanding the step counter resets at mindnight?,increase,decrease,False,True,2395.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T20:49:41.127000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",FYI I have had this person blocked for months because they're not a real person. They're just trolling to get a rise out,hold,hold,True,True,334606.5524,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:24:24.809000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",calibration with a small portfolio is easy. Just find markets that haven't been traded on in a while and radically updat,decrease,hold,False,True,135817.3986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T00:10:53.646000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","There are 10 days left in the year! I mean, they got up late today. This practice run + starting at midnight exactly mea",decrease,flip,False,True,18090.9564,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:48:43.003000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I suspect it's more like a week with 0 steps.,hold,increase,False,True,16500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:11:36.669000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"i looked at comments there and it can get toxic. Listen to me, don't take this more personally than it is already",increase,decrease,False,True,85.8983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T23:26:18.872000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I looked at your profile. You aren't ruined. You'll be fine.,increase,decrease,False,True,76713.4596,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T08:37:54.270000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,this is the problem when one person takes on the entire website userbase,flip,decrease,False,True,1122.8767,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-06-28T13:31:03.183000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"It is pretty likely he will publish it imo. It's free content. If he wanted to take this position, he should have done i",decrease,decrease,True,True,3113.8875,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:56:28.178000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","markets need sticky headers on mobile. once i scroll down to the comments section, I’ve got 0 clue whose market i’m in 😢",flip,hold,False,True,175.6218,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T02:58:20.987000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I wonder how much they paid Tornado…,flip,decrease,False,True,677.189,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T14:51:53.304000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",same with your league next season,flip,hold,False,True,175.6218,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T17:15:04.364000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,in before homeless Vladimir Putin from LA gets interviewed by Lex.,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-08-04T23:14:21.726000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"The traders were wrong => They lose their money => This is priced in future questions. +The traders were wrong => They g",hold,decrease,False,True,7009.3261,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-10T22:33:48.193000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",That logic is faulty unless he actually generates meaningful initial velocity. With a giant slingshot perhaps,decrease,hold,False,True,23045.2268,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-01T01:08:07.305000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),Congrats on making it half way to your goal!,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-21T07:43:31.468000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Dear Manifold Santa, +All I want for Christmas this year is a Destiny manifesto. I have been a good boy all year and wo",hold,increase,False,True,705.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T17:03:00.876000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"What exactly counts as ""publish""? What if he releases a video where he reads a manifesto and does not share a link to th",flip,decrease,False,True,45.9267,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T22:49:45.078000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","fwiw, i don't expect cardiovascular endurance to be a problem. It's just walking and I think you are under 30 and only m",decrease,decrease,True,True,128617.3986,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-07T14:30:38.883000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I never said that. +Also I don't really know anything about Lex or why he would interview Putin, I'm just buying YES sin",decrease,decrease,True,True,10304.9919,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:24:21.658000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","he’s already crossed a few time zones, hence the confusion",flip,hold,False,True,175.6218,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:02:59.657000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,1 point for the masses. Purely out of spite.,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T20:05:55.941000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Lex is holding a YES position in this market too,decrease,hold,False,True,157.3741,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..48147601e90f0e0e62af560317bd94456261cf78 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.8942305051220358,0.7919158570288647,-0.10231464809317115,DOWN,0.9718077355908094,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,79,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.4812986385595268,0.5850906651988619,0.10379202663933507,UP,0.9467315827053552,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,13,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.12774387441842414,0.12122122605585092,-0.0065226483625732135,DOWN,0.0075109721998920685,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,15,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.8284361202107107,0.6525618169494934,-0.17587430326121722,DOWN,0.9811846100361941,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,17,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.17604425527029122,0.5460820715998703,0.3700378163295791,UP,0.7557455665185753,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.6456072412222931,0.22838966422114793,-0.41721757700114515,DOWN,0.8921740277779487,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,17,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.45831583522817104,0.22761066979181457,-0.23070516543635647,DOWN,0.7877346514599437,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),16,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.7560956927745147,0.5458071323713504,-0.21028856040316435,DOWN,0.08331347260565257,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,18,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.5158608064790102,0.18914885330117534,-0.32671195317783486,DOWN,0.9406929860258656,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,79,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.39679654081234567,0.38677740421854434,-0.010019136593801325,DOWN,0.432258064516129,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,11,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.6671727547261952,0.5646701021907068,-0.1025026525354884,DOWN,0.9241861692541827,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,13,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.4143340653873231,0.5712531189390699,0.15691905355174685,UP,0.9552185135024391,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,11,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..bdaf639f132282f86bd897c068398d3fb7a278bb --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +3,0.6774511626227668,0.6623398476688613,-0.015111314953905497,DOWN,0.8937954164337619,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,3,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.9180942134220926,0.6092663583812663,-0.3088278550408263,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.47584611795861126,0.20725434877181736,-0.2685917691867939,DOWN,0.7968936125364666,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,14,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.4651257748077797,0.388038731302595,-0.07708704350518475,DOWN,0.4127501526167094,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,19,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0,0.22794454820388207,0.04313722453421063,-0.18480732366967145,DOWN,0.6447632065777268,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,24,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.3749999999999998,0.31858999353468653,-0.056410006465313245,DOWN,0.8788994315544159,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),4,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.22130042725090585,0.2126976079012512,-0.00860281934965465,DOWN,0.9664327940865782,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.6262312264005917,0.49586371621764097,-0.13036751018295073,DOWN,0.9528266543390641,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),14,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.7374913414889965,0.8152792141246247,0.07778787263562814,UP,0.2510830968100924,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,20,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.07890770585897781,0.05763045205711181,-0.021277253801866007,DOWN,0.8487696300664052,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,11,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.5977270855367104,0.0764126559252981,-0.5213144296114123,DOWN,0.7657828872680891,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,583,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.44887949348076267,0.33990342311635247,-0.1089760703644102,DOWN,0.8737374965594513,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8660c9cf4cf910deb168b61dfbccccdc68cf0c86 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,38 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T21:37:16.922000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"wait + were you the third?!!!",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-05T22:07:09.162000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Meowdy! The rules are strict but clear—only confirmed military clashes or strikes count, no gray areas. The political ch",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:01:34.635000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I went out of my way to have very binary acceptance criteria to avoid a fuzzy mess. It's like they are doing this on pur,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-12T03:01:58.092000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am selling my position because of the updated criteria which I just read a while back.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-17T23:59:43.875000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Don't worry, I haven't sold my position yet. It'll only happen immediately after I sell.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-09T21:53:38.982000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I dunno. My model was always since October been it should happen late November or Early December after typhoon season en,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T03:14:13.531000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Like, literally, anybody, prove me wrong with a non-AI generated video.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-15T20:29:35.986000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I think I should have paid more attention to historical cases of US gunboat diplomacy and how we actually do have a refe,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T22:56:20.712000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"basically the entire puzzle is a meta-puzzle about Roman imperial succession. +A 1 represents a case where the title was",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T15:44:15.673000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lex holding no's and waiting till New Year's to hit send on that email to Elon.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:52:22.223000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I would stop using manifold if they did that. Full stop. 100 percent. It’s already the reason I barely use Metaculus or ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-26T05:05:01.723000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier with a nuclear reactor - and I believe the US Navy's second",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:45:33.776000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"M$75? What is this, a limit order for ants?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T05:03:30.355000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Wish I bought more on my NO position when I had, alas, this was in the beginning when I didn't know how much of this wor",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-06T21:56:59.303000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I did a line of Venezuelan cocaine last night and the ghost of Simón Bolívar appeared before me and said that the attack,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-04T23:08:51.660000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"in my imo destiny is transphobic and anticommunist enough to warrant an unban, but he also threatened Cox Communication'",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:30:47.728000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,where in the acceptance criteria do you see that a special forces operation to kill Maduro but nobody else dies resolves,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:07:56.767000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""hegemony works best when nobody acknowledges there is a hegemony."" This is sort of what I mean with the curtain.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:50:07.063000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am by no means insinuating that this market was created this weekend for you to make mana during the crisis. I am repe,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-30T05:35:09.681000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,But you aren't going to wait for months to see if some of the 'workplace accidents' that befall cartel members were in f,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-25T11:53:47.758000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"keep in mind if it's the actual militaries fighting, it's YES no matter where. But sure, if Venezuela sinks a Princess C",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-14T23:17:04.359000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I've made a successor market for comparison! +https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w?r=UG",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:49:06.237000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left. +But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:13:12.421000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"The market description has always quite clearly stated its policy towards a winning team, no?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:58:27.285000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"it was not airstrike but definitely a nuclear ballistic missile from space, with calibrated explosion shaped as square",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-16T19:52:10.508000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Deployment costs way more than ""just existing and being ready at home."" Easily millions more per day than it would cost ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T00:29:37.311000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,If we are going by didtrumpgolftoday then this should be a shoe in no bet. It's impossible for him to reach 25% at this ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T16:48:36.841000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"Two resolution options: +If +https://didtrumpgolftoday.com/ + shows the update - YES. +If +https://didtrumpgolftoday.c",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d65a058b135ad17f3214803b20169859559ca364 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,38 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T16:48:36.841000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"Two resolution options: +If +https://didtrumpgolftoday.com/ + shows the update - YES. +If +https://didtrumpgolftoday.c",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-17T23:59:43.875000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Don't worry, I haven't sold my position yet. It'll only happen immediately after I sell.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-09T21:53:38.982000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I dunno. My model was always since October been it should happen late November or Early December after typhoon season en,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T21:37:16.922000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"wait + were you the third?!!!",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-12T03:01:58.092000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am selling my position because of the updated criteria which I just read a while back.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T03:14:13.531000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Like, literally, anybody, prove me wrong with a non-AI generated video.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:01:34.635000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I went out of my way to have very binary acceptance criteria to avoid a fuzzy mess. It's like they are doing this on pur,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:52:22.223000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I would stop using manifold if they did that. Full stop. 100 percent. It’s already the reason I barely use Metaculus or ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-15T20:29:35.986000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I think I should have paid more attention to historical cases of US gunboat diplomacy and how we actually do have a refe,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T15:44:15.673000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lex holding no's and waiting till New Year's to hit send on that email to Elon.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T22:56:20.712000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"basically the entire puzzle is a meta-puzzle about Roman imperial succession. +A 1 represents a case where the title was",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-26T05:05:01.723000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier with a nuclear reactor - and I believe the US Navy's second",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T05:03:30.355000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Wish I bought more on my NO position when I had, alas, this was in the beginning when I didn't know how much of this wor",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:45:33.776000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"M$75? What is this, a limit order for ants?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-05T22:07:09.162000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Meowdy! The rules are strict but clear—only confirmed military clashes or strikes count, no gray areas. The political ch",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-04T23:08:51.660000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"in my imo destiny is transphobic and anticommunist enough to warrant an unban, but he also threatened Cox Communication'",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-06T21:56:59.303000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I did a line of Venezuelan cocaine last night and the ghost of Simón Bolívar appeared before me and said that the attack,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-25T11:53:47.758000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"keep in mind if it's the actual militaries fighting, it's YES no matter where. But sure, if Venezuela sinks a Princess C",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:30:47.728000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,where in the acceptance criteria do you see that a special forces operation to kill Maduro but nobody else dies resolves,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:07:56.767000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""hegemony works best when nobody acknowledges there is a hegemony."" This is sort of what I mean with the curtain.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:50:07.063000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am by no means insinuating that this market was created this weekend for you to make mana during the crisis. I am repe,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-16T19:52:10.508000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Deployment costs way more than ""just existing and being ready at home."" Easily millions more per day than it would cost ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:49:06.237000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left. +But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-30T05:35:09.681000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,But you aren't going to wait for months to see if some of the 'workplace accidents' that befall cartel members were in f,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-14T23:17:04.359000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I've made a successor market for comparison! +https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w?r=UG",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:13:12.421000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"The market description has always quite clearly stated its policy towards a winning team, no?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T00:29:37.311000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,If we are going by didtrumpgolftoday then this should be a shoe in no bet. It's impossible for him to reach 25% at this ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:58:27.285000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"it was not airstrike but definitely a nuclear ballistic missile from space, with calibrated explosion shaped as square",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f869b48e3ec5ed85997dfed012115c5e78809c6d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:58:27.285000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"it was not airstrike but definitely a nuclear ballistic missile from space, with calibrated explosion shaped as square",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-17T20:49:09.478000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"NYT: ""Venezuela’s government has ordered its Navy to escort ships carrying petroleum products from port, escalating the ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-19T12:09:00.353000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"really brings the word ""private"" back into inter-State relations",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T00:29:37.311000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,If we are going by didtrumpgolftoday then this should be a shoe in no bet. It's impossible for him to reach 25% at this ,NO,NO,True,True,50.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:08:38.349000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I lost some funds on Polymarket after betting on Bolonsairo, Madure after the Trump's speach: +https://youtu.be/vFwN4h",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-09T21:53:38.982000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I dunno. My model was always since October been it should happen late November or Early December after typhoon season en,YES,YES,True,True,15425.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-05T22:07:09.162000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Meowdy! The rules are strict but clear—only confirmed military clashes or strikes count, no gray areas. The political ch",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:06:18.646000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"How confident are we that this was a ""airstrike"", vs a cyberattack or other form of covert op?",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-16T19:52:10.508000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Deployment costs way more than ""just existing and being ready at home."" Easily millions more per day than it would cost ",YES,NO,False,True,15425.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-02T23:57:08.814000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,franklin turned up in an SS costume an no-one even blinked,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:49:06.237000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left. +But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump",NO,NO,True,True,2000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T05:03:30.355000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Wish I bought more on my NO position when I had, alas, this was in the beginning when I didn't know how much of this wor",NO,NO,True,True,10.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-25T11:53:47.758000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"keep in mind if it's the actual militaries fighting, it's YES no matter where. But sure, if Venezuela sinks a Princess C",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-26T05:05:01.723000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier with a nuclear reactor - and I believe the US Navy's second",YES,YES,True,True,1000.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-27T15:27:00.509000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"yeah, I thought it was very clear the US strikes were exclusively about setting back the nuclear weapons program. Otherw",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-15T20:29:35.986000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I think I should have paid more attention to historical cases of US gunboat diplomacy and how we actually do have a refe,YES,NO,False,True,15425.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-16T13:29:12.955000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Bet on whether Destiny will get at least 150 people to show up for the Georgia canvassing event. +https://manifold.marke",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:07:56.767000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""hegemony works best when nobody acknowledges there is a hegemony."" This is sort of what I mean with the curtain.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:59:22.851000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"You have an ""OR"" condition to worry about. +either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a co",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T06:11:15.598000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"haha yeah, OP remembered that there's a second military out there somewhere",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T03:10:35.961000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"How is there no video footage of these drone strikes anywhere on the internet yet...? There +has + to be shenanigans af",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T22:56:20.712000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"basically the entire puzzle is a meta-puzzle about Roman imperial succession. +A 1 represents a case where the title was",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-04T23:08:51.660000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"in my imo destiny is transphobic and anticommunist enough to warrant an unban, but he also threatened Cox Communication'",NO,NO,True,True,3280.7255,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-06T21:56:59.303000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I did a line of Venezuelan cocaine last night and the ghost of Simón Bolívar appeared before me and said that the attack,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-28T11:14:08.992000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,to be clear: he said he will use force to stop ppl smuggling drugs from Venezuela by land. Didn't explain where the forc,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T22:07:52.322000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If Maduro doesn't increase his buying of Trump coin or WTFI, those strikes might actually become a reality - possibly so",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T16:48:36.841000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"Two resolution options: +If +https://didtrumpgolftoday.com/ + shows the update - YES. +If +https://didtrumpgolftoday.c",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:45:33.776000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"M$75? What is this, a limit order for ants?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,23000.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:52:22.223000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I would stop using manifold if they did that. Full stop. 100 percent. It’s already the reason I barely use Metaculus or ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,6147.9486,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-18T02:06:39.687000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I don't believe it is the case either in the view of trump or the government as a whole or the effective force behind it,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-14T23:17:04.359000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I've made a successor market for comparison! +https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w?r=UG",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-09T02:54:46.082000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Does a one sided attack count?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:01:34.440000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Okay, perhaps it wasn't inevitable, just a fallback that Russia forced the USA into.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-06T17:31:21.168000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,The catgirl mannerisms are back!,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:55:31.477000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,The chief of idiocracy said something.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:01:34.635000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I went out of my way to have very binary acceptance criteria to avoid a fuzzy mess. It's like they are doing this on pur,YES,NO,False,True,283.7152,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T03:14:13.531000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Like, literally, anybody, prove me wrong with a non-AI generated video.",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-17T23:59:43.875000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Don't worry, I haven't sold my position yet. It'll only happen immediately after I sell.",YES,NO,False,True,15425.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:21:54.364000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,This market is yet another instance of a problem of a creator betting on his own market. There are a lot of ambiguities ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T21:14:26.884000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"so, more reason to act now. SCOTUS still granted him immunity.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T21:59:49.589000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"from what I can tell from that list it's the largest oil producer directly in the US's shadow/""backyard"" that's also a f",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:30:47.728000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,where in the acceptance criteria do you see that a special forces operation to kill Maduro but nobody else dies resolves,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-08-28T00:25:58.078000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Context for people who haven't heard about this possibility: +https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-deploys-warships-us-de",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T15:44:15.673000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lex holding no's and waiting till New Year's to hit send on that email to Elon.,NO,NO,True,True,40.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T21:37:16.922000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"wait + were you the third?!!!",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:50:07.063000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am by no means insinuating that this market was created this weekend for you to make mana during the crisis. I am repe,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:19:13.244000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,would 2021 satellite image count as yes?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-30T05:35:09.681000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,But you aren't going to wait for months to see if some of the 'workplace accidents' that befall cartel members were in f,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-12T03:01:58.092000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am selling my position because of the updated criteria which I just read a while back.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2100.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-31T02:34:41.170000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"president Trump does not considered to be a credible resource.. +But CNN and other credible media reported about that CI",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:13:12.421000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"The market description has always quite clearly stated its policy towards a winning team, no?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T05:30:49.983000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confir",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-11T11:18:36.961000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If you have to have a million updates, you may not have crafted a good market.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:11:28.405000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,shouldda listened to them ghosts,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..310b2834aaaba9063cf0333eec5af3d1099b0d4b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T15:48:45.093000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,My shenanigansometer is going off.,flip,decrease,False,True,77.4676,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:11:50.998000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I believe it fails the Israeli confirmation requirement. Israel never said they did it.,decrease,hold,False,True,140.48,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T22:47:51.161000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"as somebody who didn't learn of the challenge until today and has never properly played a puzzle game, what was so disgu",hold,hold,True,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:37:22.196000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I was fully prepared to take a 9000 mana loss on this market two days ago. Shit happened now it’s a different situation.,decrease,hold,False,True,9860.2663,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T06:09:18.219000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Sorry, now I think +you're + misusing the term. It's not off-the-record. Based on the link, it's either on-background, ",hold,hold,True,True,3104.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T21:51:44.150000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""We hit all the boats, and now we hit the area... it's the implementation area. That's where they implement, and that is",hold,decrease,False,True,283.7152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T20:03:38.068000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,More mana available to you all now if you want to defend the base rate.,flip,increase,False,True,58.5331,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:35:49.708000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,I lost 25k mana on this and I think it's perfectly reasonable. The market description said from the beginning that team ,flip,decrease,False,True,24815.2942,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T23:27:58.894000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"first they made a ridiculous gauntlet to log in, 100s of emails required. But then once you get in, a really bad ""AI cha",hold,decrease,False,True,19.1948,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:16:44.735000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I thought on this more. You, indeed, have a big brain.",decrease,increase,False,True,977.0323,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T20:23:28.933000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"We have an update, 87 days in 2025 according to didtrumpgolftoday.com, the exact minimum needed for 25% of days between ",hold,decrease,False,True,54801.5067,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T13:10:05.916000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,glad you asked this question before it became relevant,hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:25:51.349000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"at a horrible price, i think there's no way this is gonna resolve NO at this point",flip,flip,True,True,895.0452,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:12:40.260000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"can play this after 2 weeks I believe: +Resolution timing: + Will wait until the first 2026 entry appears on +didtrump",flip,hold,False,True,212.2015,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-18T20:13:16.669000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"ban evasion account, doesn't count for this market",increase,hold,False,True,419.6026,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:07:17.104000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I didn't bet large amounts, still, I took into consideration the wording here, as it was so unambiguous: ANY airstrike, ",flip,hold,False,True,78.3524,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T13:49:56.954000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Still no confirmation but we are getting it on more reliable news sources +https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/28/us/politi",hold,increase,False,True,3850.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-23T03:22:27.270000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Oh and he cares about Sargon? Come on now.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-24T02:03:45.952000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,He won't be unbanned till January Copium,increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-10-28T11:38:58.133000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-28/musk-is-said-to-take-twitter-ceo-role-reverse-life-bans +Musk also in",decrease,increase,False,True,179.3931,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:41:40.406000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Just from that quote that definitely doesn’t sound like confirmation. You can obviously prepare for retaliation for some,flip,hold,False,True,2078.5133,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T21:53:07.686000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"""Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel"" +Having seen what you have seen so far, does Israel have to explicitly a",flip,decrease,False,True,30.5356,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T09:46:04.417000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"a little update, i still believe",decrease,increase,False,True,776.1571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-31T02:32:48.856000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If the President saying the strike happened, isn't sufficient, I dunno what would be",hold,increase,False,True,122.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T22:01:05.884000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,NAHH IF YOU'VE SEEN WHAT HE TWEETED THIS SHITS STAYING IN THE GRAVE,increase,increase,True,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T22:02:01.529000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"This from The Times of Israel is the context for my question. +""While Israel’s military does not, as a rule, comment on ",increase,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-18T02:33:48.127000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I assume the 6 PM drop was from Trump's speech just being about the economy?,hold,decrease,False,True,13.3683,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T10:45:26.680000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,what is wrong with conflux paying soni,decrease,hold,False,True,1784.6546,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T03:20:01.269000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,Why make real money when i can make fake make believe money instead,increase,decrease,False,True,1803.9329,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-02T20:13:23.334000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Sir, there's a line. Please wait behind the rest of us.",flip,hold,False,True,100.3272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:37:46.514000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"guys let's all chill out until more information comes out, nothing is going to resolve right now.",flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:27:10.849000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Not having justifications for wars that have negative ramifications (immigration and inflation) is never a good thing fo,increase,increase,True,True,7825.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-18T20:24:32.686000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"beautiful chart, feels like it should be in a textbook instead of the real world",increase,decrease,False,True,281.3584,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T19:49:14.209000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"the unbannings definitely do not happen because he loves free speech, that's for sure",hold,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-03T19:50:41.412000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"this is exactly what happens when you lose soft power: +https://www.politico.eu/article/christopher-landau-top-us-offic",decrease,hold,False,True,69.9096,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-19T23:49:02.089000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Middle Eastern politics are famously byzantine for many reasons besides Israel, so any such alliances would be limited a",increase,hold,False,True,435.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T15:14:48.096000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I don't see how the recent news resolves this question yes,hold,hold,True,True,21341.7411,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-16T03:25:23.962000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Bro I don't have the money to keep doing this,decrease,decrease,True,True,7123.6342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T20:11:32.666000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,not against MAGA as a movement. But every country benefits from soft power. The US used to have a abundance of it. W bur,decrease,decrease,True,True,111.0954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-27T02:26:50.226000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Ok, so as I understand it, once Israel confirms the attack, it resolves YES?",flip,hold,False,True,591.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T13:23:03.517000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"I don't want to filter for large bets, I want to see what the other traders are doing. Earlier today I was very much loo",increase,hold,False,True,15173.9329,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T08:44:26.702000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,but that would mean I don't get to the masters 😱,flip,decrease,False,True,80.0362,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T15:46:42.571000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,what's the incentive? My guess would be to hide it from their own population to avoid loosing war support,decrease,decrease,True,True,3662.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-16T20:00:56.214000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"People keep getting ""discount"" and ""loss of value"" confused lol",increase,hold,False,True,4913.0959,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-25T21:08:31.206000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,yep I think wait until we see a 2026 entry. maybe NA if the site doesn’t change at all from its current state by march 1,decrease,decrease,True,True,31665.1135,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T08:43:19.229000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,that market seems to only count fights between military personnel which is quite different.,hold,decrease,False,True,283.7152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T19:46:21.240000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I'm trying to parse what you mean by this: +...facts on the ground...",decrease,hold,False,True,252.8199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T21:49:57.693000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"So he +said + it. But did it happen? Has anybody independently confirmed what he said?",flip,decrease,False,True,226.2193,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T18:01:41.111000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,I dunno. Guess we'll find out!,flip,hold,False,True,511.3059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-21T01:31:09.926000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,I'M DOUBLING DOWN. EITHER I WIN BIG OR I QUIT THIS SITE.,hold,increase,False,True,10920.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T18:11:36.585000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,probably need one more day for 100% clear YES resolution,increase,hold,False,True,411.1169,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:55:43.616000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"the question is clearly somewhat ambiguous and fuzzy. i think in these situations, it's good to delegate to an unbiased ",increase,decrease,False,True,995.9306,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T05:03:30.355000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Wish I bought more on my NO position when I had, alas, this was in the beginning when I didn't know how much of this wor",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-28T11:46:29.184000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,">Trump / Marco makes an announcement that they're going to do something +>Market jumps +>I lose mana +>Nothing happens a",increase,decrease,False,True,6339.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T06:59:00.840000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Oh I was just confused by the two eithers in the description, between ""either 10 killed OR a confirmed airstrike,"" and """,increase,hold,False,True,27.6566,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-23T21:26:41.413000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,all we need is a bit over month and we are rich. Keep predicting YES bozos.,hold,increase,False,True,283.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:17:29.659000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"for me, the relevant points are +US officials saying the word “eliminated” +Trump used the same verbs as for the boats. ",flip,decrease,False,True,1010.8101,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T14:14:53.139000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,probably because the CIA is not the US military?,increase,decrease,False,True,960.5182,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:59:54.428000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Disclosure is better than prohibition in almost all cases.,decrease,hold,False,True,6147.9486,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T19:52:09.314000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Oh! Alright, I learned a new term today!",decrease,hold,False,True,252.8199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..facc54a85719b747616d92fe5a3373fcbdc225d7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,37 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T13:49:56.954000+00:00,"Still no confirmation but we are getting it on more reliable news sources +https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/28/us/politi",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-31T02:32:48.856000+00:00,"If the President saying the strike happened, isn't sufficient, I dunno what would be",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T19:46:21.240000+00:00,"I'm trying to parse what you mean by this: +...facts on the ground...",decrease,hold,False +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T15:14:48.096000+00:00,I don't see how the recent news resolves this question yes,hold,hold,True +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T22:47:51.161000+00:00,"as somebody who didn't learn of the challenge until today and has never properly played a puzzle game, what was so disgu",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T21:51:44.150000+00:00,"""We hit all the boats, and now we hit the area... it's the implementation area. That's where they implement, and that is",hold,decrease,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T19:52:09.314000+00:00,"Oh! Alright, I learned a new term today!",decrease,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T08:43:19.229000+00:00,that market seems to only count fights between military personnel which is quite different.,hold,decrease,False +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:59:54.428000+00:00,Disclosure is better than prohibition in almost all cases.,decrease,hold,False +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T10:45:26.680000+00:00,what is wrong with conflux paying soni,decrease,hold,False +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-25T21:08:31.206000+00:00,yep I think wait until we see a 2026 entry. maybe NA if the site doesn’t change at all from its current state by march 1,decrease,hold,False +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T09:46:04.417000+00:00,"a little update, i still believe",decrease,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T13:10:05.916000+00:00,glad you asked this question before it became relevant,hold,decrease,False +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-16T03:25:23.962000+00:00,Bro I don't have the money to keep doing this,decrease,decrease,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-03T19:50:41.412000+00:00,"this is exactly what happens when you lose soft power: +https://www.politico.eu/article/christopher-landau-top-us-offic",decrease,hold,False +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:11:50.998000+00:00,I believe it fails the Israeli confirmation requirement. Israel never said they did it.,decrease,hold,False +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:16:44.735000+00:00,"I thought on this more. You, indeed, have a big brain.",decrease,hold,False +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T20:23:28.933000+00:00,"We have an update, 87 days in 2025 according to didtrumpgolftoday.com, the exact minimum needed for 25% of days between ",hold,decrease,False +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T19:49:14.209000+00:00,"the unbannings definitely do not happen because he loves free speech, that's for sure",hold,hold,True +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-10-28T11:38:58.133000+00:00,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-28/musk-is-said-to-take-twitter-ceo-role-reverse-life-bans +Musk also in",decrease,decrease,True +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-23T21:26:41.413000+00:00,all we need is a bit over month and we are rich. Keep predicting YES bozos.,hold,hold,True +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-21T01:31:09.926000+00:00,I'M DOUBLING DOWN. EITHER I WIN BIG OR I QUIT THIS SITE.,hold,hold,True +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T06:09:18.219000+00:00,"Sorry, now I think +you're + misusing the term. It's not off-the-record. Based on the link, it's either on-background, ",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-18T02:33:48.127000+00:00,I assume the 6 PM drop was from Trump's speech just being about the economy?,hold,decrease,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T20:11:32.666000+00:00,not against MAGA as a movement. But every country benefits from soft power. The US used to have a abundance of it. W bur,decrease,decrease,True +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T23:27:58.894000+00:00,"first they made a ridiculous gauntlet to log in, 100s of emails required. But then once you get in, a really bad ""AI cha",hold,decrease,False +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T05:03:30.355000+00:00,"Wish I bought more on my NO position when I had, alas, this was in the beginning when I didn't know how much of this wor",hold,hold,True +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-23T03:22:27.270000+00:00,Oh and he cares about Sargon? Come on now.,decrease,decrease,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T15:46:42.571000+00:00,what's the incentive? My guess would be to hide it from their own population to avoid loosing war support,decrease,decrease,True +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:37:22.196000+00:00,I was fully prepared to take a 9000 mana loss on this market two days ago. Shit happened now it’s a different situation.,decrease,hold,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f3803a1f16bcfb61af9e76277dbda1255286f3e2 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T22:47:51.161000+00:00,"as somebody who didn't learn of the challenge until today and has never properly played a puzzle game, what was so disgu",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T13:49:56.954000+00:00,"Still no confirmation but we are getting it on more reliable news sources +https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/28/us/politi",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-31T02:32:48.856000+00:00,"If the President saying the strike happened, isn't sufficient, I dunno what would be",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-02T20:13:23.334000+00:00,"Sir, there's a line. Please wait behind the rest of us.",flip,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T08:43:19.229000+00:00,that market seems to only count fights between military personnel which is quite different.,hold,hold,True +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T15:14:48.096000+00:00,I don't see how the recent news resolves this question yes,hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T21:51:44.150000+00:00,"""We hit all the boats, and now we hit the area... it's the implementation area. That's where they implement, and that is",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:25:51.349000+00:00,"at a horrible price, i think there's no way this is gonna resolve NO at this point",flip,flip,True +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:07:17.104000+00:00,"I didn't bet large amounts, still, I took into consideration the wording here, as it was so unambiguous: ANY airstrike, ",flip,hold,False +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T21:53:07.686000+00:00,"""Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel"" +Having seen what you have seen so far, does Israel have to explicitly a",flip,hold,False +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T20:03:38.068000+00:00,More mana available to you all now if you want to defend the base rate.,flip,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:37:46.514000+00:00,"guys let's all chill out until more information comes out, nothing is going to resolve right now.",flip,hold,False +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T15:48:45.093000+00:00,My shenanigansometer is going off.,flip,flip,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T13:10:05.916000+00:00,glad you asked this question before it became relevant,hold,flip,False +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T20:23:28.933000+00:00,"We have an update, 87 days in 2025 according to didtrumpgolftoday.com, the exact minimum needed for 25% of days between ",hold,hold,True +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-27T02:26:50.226000+00:00,"Ok, so as I understand it, once Israel confirms the attack, it resolves YES?",flip,flip,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T08:44:26.702000+00:00,but that would mean I don't get to the masters 😱,flip,hold,False +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:35:49.708000+00:00,I lost 25k mana on this and I think it's perfectly reasonable. The market description said from the beginning that team ,flip,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-18T02:33:48.127000+00:00,I assume the 6 PM drop was from Trump's speech just being about the economy?,hold,hold,True +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-23T21:26:41.413000+00:00,all we need is a bit over month and we are rich. Keep predicting YES bozos.,hold,flip,False +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T19:49:14.209000+00:00,"the unbannings definitely do not happen because he loves free speech, that's for sure",hold,flip,False +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T23:27:58.894000+00:00,"first they made a ridiculous gauntlet to log in, 100s of emails required. But then once you get in, a really bad ""AI cha",hold,hold,True +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T06:09:18.219000+00:00,"Sorry, now I think +you're + misusing the term. It's not off-the-record. Based on the link, it's either on-background, ",hold,hold,True +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T18:01:41.111000+00:00,I dunno. Guess we'll find out!,flip,hold,False +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:12:40.260000+00:00,"can play this after 2 weeks I believe: +Resolution timing: + Will wait until the first 2026 entry appears on +didtrump",flip,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T21:49:57.693000+00:00,"So he +said + it. But did it happen? Has anybody independently confirmed what he said?",flip,hold,False +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-21T01:31:09.926000+00:00,I'M DOUBLING DOWN. EITHER I WIN BIG OR I QUIT THIS SITE.,hold,hold,True +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:41:40.406000+00:00,Just from that quote that definitely doesn’t sound like confirmation. You can obviously prepare for retaliation for some,flip,hold,False +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T05:03:30.355000+00:00,"Wish I bought more on my NO position when I had, alas, this was in the beginning when I didn't know how much of this wor",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:17:29.659000+00:00,"for me, the relevant points are +US officials saying the word “eliminated” +Trump used the same verbs as for the boats. ",flip,hold,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..39c7716ea57b91dc9a437ebad9c7b4101a5b09f6 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T15:48:45.093000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,My shenanigansometer is going off.,flip,decrease,False,True,77.4676,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T22:03:18.296000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I think if the US doesn’t take credit it could only be Israel.,decrease,increase,False,True,8860.2663,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:21:03.663000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,We are taking issue with what BTE is saying in the comments. He obviously has a vested interest in this resolving YES an,flip,increase,False,True,1910.4288,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-17T20:18:29.474000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I am also wondering this, but my guess is this",decrease,hold,False,True,25.1911,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:52:22.223000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I would stop using manifold if they did that. Full stop. 100 percent. It’s already the reason I barely use Metaculus or ,hold,hold,True,True,6147.9486,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T08:27:31.291000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-air-strike-syria-kills-senior-iranian-revolutionary-guards-member-2023,flip,decrease,False,True,660.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-30T21:38:49.102000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"""Honestly, I feel like musk is actively searching the people he unbans and avoiding lefties / people who have mentioned ",hold,decrease,False,True,28.1644,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:40:51.263000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,i'm trying to be a voice of reason and you're acting like,flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-31T01:30:47.707000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Venezuela acknowledging it in any way is an easy YES (we'll see on that front). It's unlikely in my opinion that CNN and,hold,decrease,False,True,66.5979,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-03T20:43:47.073000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If you'd like to take a loan out with me to bet this further down, we can negotiate something in DMs.",flip,increase,False,True,20.5985,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T15:53:40.709000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I don't know about Venezuela. I'm traveling and haven't had time to do proper research on this yet. Any believable™️ con,hold,decrease,False,True,283.7152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-10T20:54:39.718000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Venezuelan oil tanker seized for some reason +https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/us-venezuela-oil-tanker-seize.html",hold,increase,False,True,34.6633,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-06T06:25:04.161000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,you are missing the calendar..,hold,decrease,False,True,3274.6007,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T16:52:15.011000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,Never before have I been so invested in the POTUS' golfing habits and the means to report on them.,decrease,hold,False,True,521.9903,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:06:34.715000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"87%? only one day, its like 75% chance for me",flip,decrease,False,True,212.2015,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-16T15:34:50.849000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,I raised it for you guys if you wanna dip,decrease,increase,False,True,5446.3422,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:37:46.514000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"guys let's all chill out until more information comes out, nothing is going to resolve right now.",flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-21T21:22:46.906000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"You understand Trump was personally unbanned by Elon Musk, right? Destiny isn't that high profile.",increase,decrease,False,True,7.559,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-27T23:47:58.414000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"79 + 7 = 86 ... i am not even American, but this golf obessity can cause me a lot",flip,decrease,False,True,743.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T05:15:13.381000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"The New York Times is saying there was some on-record dialogue with Israeli defense officials, and that those officials ",increase,hold,False,True,3104.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-11T00:11:03.205000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Maybe there should be a little banner near the top that warns you if the creator has a big stake, that way people will b",decrease,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-29T17:36:29.858000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Link for anyone else who missed this: +https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-airspace-above-surrounding-ven",decrease,increase,False,True,324.753,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-23T17:30:29.030000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Can you TLDR this article or send a gift link?,increase,hold,False,True,321.3403,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-31T19:44:39.508000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"yes, he was dressed for golf in golf club on 30 December",hold,increase,False,True,625.9294,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:50:12.335000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,hold,hold,True,True,921.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-17T22:39:32.280000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,when they use that many acronyms you know it's serious,increase,hold,False,True,5.1493,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-09T05:29:44.121000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"It felt too perfect. I couldn't just +not + share that.",increase,decrease,False,True,141.2037,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T17:23:36.649000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Imagine letting your pop-hatred of Musk get in the way of being play-rich,increase,hold,False,True,845.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:11:50.998000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I believe it fails the Israeli confirmation requirement. Israel never said they did it.,increase,hold,False,True,140.48,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T14:25:39.190000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,it's hard to see how he could be talking about something else unless he's really losing it,decrease,hold,False,True,11.5378,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T22:44:22.352000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"Insane. Congrats and well played! In my defence, I didn't expect teams to be as large as 40 or 50 people which increases",flip,decrease,False,True,24815.2942,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T22:08:58.428000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"If the acknowledgement requirement applies, I read it as just acknowledging the event occurred. NOT admitting responsibi",hold,hold,True,True,3443.9473,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T21:31:35.019000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"And someone has posted all of their answers to the puzzle on a public document so you can easily get up to speed: +https",flip,decrease,False,True,99.1418,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T06:22:57.429000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"To restate my point, whichever Israeli defense official was talking to the press, was talking to press knowing their sta",increase,hold,False,True,3104.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T18:49:07.817000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Alright, what the heck am I missing in the news for this downward spike?",decrease,decrease,True,True,385.0894,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T10:47:38.122000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"Why would you lend 20k to a user with little other net worth putting it on a very risky bet, unless they convinced you t",decrease,decrease,True,True,43333.6436,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T20:18:17.465000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"90 days total - 3 days in January = 87 in 2025 +87/(365-19)=25.1%",hold,hold,True,True,54801.5067,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T19:18:59.443000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Also, what happens if the acknowledgement occurs after the close date? Would it resolve YES so long as the action took p",increase,hold,False,True,2334.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-25T21:08:31.206000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,yep I think wait until we see a 2026 entry. maybe NA if the site doesn’t change at all from its current state by march 1,decrease,decrease,True,True,31665.1135,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-26T09:11:34.544000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,The main difference is the data source - if you check the Polymarket comments there's a fair bit of debate over what con,decrease,decrease,True,True,33665.1135,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:41:42.181000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I think it's way too unclear to say one way or the other if he was bullshitting or not atm,flip,decrease,False,True,1702.8718,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T19:53:37.780000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I found a bigger bigger one in a poorly SEOed arb!,flip,hold,False,True,62.0754,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-18T20:38:59.503000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Lmao you actually sold your entire shares, should have prob waited tbh",hold,decrease,False,True,1246.8185,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T22:11:08.451000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Maduro is one of the few players who likely does know what did or didn’t happen. If this is an act and not just incompet,increase,hold,False,True,640.9742,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-27T14:18:56.536000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,At least one major war in your part of the world started with an assassination if I am not mistaken…,decrease,increase,False,True,10360.2663,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-31T18:00:54.245000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,I see a golf item on the 30th on Roll Call! This will be a photo finish!,increase,decrease,False,True,207.1466,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-28T06:45:20.618000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Trump says US land action against alleged drug trafficking networks in Venezuela will start ‘very soon’,decrease,increase,False,True,1387.0423,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T00:38:40.333000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"https://x.com/i/status/2005431686029590710 +Wondering if this counts Shellby Talcott a white house correspondent confirm",hold,increase,False,True,3850.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-03T23:13:12.631000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,Maybe they have the correct answer but are not sure who submitted it first.,hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T08:44:26.702000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,but that would mean I don't get to the masters 😱,flip,decrease,False,True,80.0362,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T22:19:03.768000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Or he’s a senile old man who likes playing the bully but is too addled to realize when he’s out of his depth.,increase,decrease,False,True,640.9742,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:01:42.313000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If I understand the rules, this would not qualify for a YES resolution without confirmed kills?",increase,decrease,False,True,200.9096,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:39:29.289000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,The relevance is that I'm hardly biased in favour of a YES resolution.,flip,hold,False,True,24815.2942,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T21:24:59.094000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"Oh, and also....the aspect where a bunch of the answers were posted publicly was kinda awkward. Luckily I solved a lot o",hold,decrease,False,True,19.1948,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-01T16:33:58.270000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"That's really what it might come down to, actually.",increase,hold,False,True,258.9395,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:16:44.735000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I thought on this more. You, indeed, have a big brain.",decrease,increase,False,True,977.0323,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-16T18:18:04.446000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I assume the origins of targeted assasinations have to be similarly confirmed to airstrikes?,hold,decrease,False,True,385.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-02-28T08:09:43.276000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"7% still feels a little high to me, see +this comment + for part of the reason why: +There are just several days of hin",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T17:00:20.019000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,Be the change you want to see in the world.,flip,hold,False,True,79.155,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:15:26.769000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"From OP ""You are misreading the acknowledgement section. The distinction is that it can’t be American. So we don’t need ",decrease,hold,False,True,3804.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..809817b9de34597d5096c380437e3f43ee0915b7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,77 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T16:14:54.953000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,The question even indicated that it doesn't have to be against military targets. Lots of mental gymnastics would be need,flip,increase,False,True,650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-27T23:47:58.414000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"79 + 7 = 86 ... i am not even American, but this golf obessity can cause me a lot",flip,decrease,False,True,743.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:55:03.184000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,The air strikes confirmed was definitely intended to be about bombings inside Iran not targeted assassination.,decrease,increase,False,True,9860.2663,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T18:04:38.955000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"I had to cut my losses, aba pulled some strings to get destiny unbanned.",hold,flip,False,True,42.417,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:41:40.406000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Just from that quote that definitely doesn’t sound like confirmation. You can obviously prepare for retaliation for some,flip,hold,False,True,2078.5133,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T00:06:11.392000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Iran has promised retaliation many times in the past - but nothing significant ever come through...,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T16:50:23.907000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,The author stated the comments made to the New York Times by the Israeli defense official count as acknowledgement,decrease,hold,False,True,3704.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-13T19:38:46.651000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,@nmwood Why not cut your losses and try something else?,hold,decrease,False,True,92.3089,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T13:21:10.526000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,you can filter for bets of size M100+ but yeah this is annoying and a fix would be great 🙏,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T18:03:53.170000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"— (1) please stop spamming near-identical limit orders. whatever strategy that is supposed to be, cut it out, and place ",hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-03T23:13:12.631000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,Maybe they have the correct answer but are not sure who submitted it first.,hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:14:03.572000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"can you link to this 'confirmation'? All I see is ""Trump said so pls believe""",hold,decrease,False,True,5887.594,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-22T22:24:21.383000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"yep! only +didtrumpgolftoday.com + counts for this market’s resolution",decrease,hold,False,True,28262.4897,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T08:27:31.291000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-air-strike-syria-kills-senior-iranian-revolutionary-guards-member-2023,flip,decrease,False,True,660.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T04:56:29.699000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"dedicated market for this here +https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/short-fuse-us-airstrikes-against-ve",hold,hold,True,True,850.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T01:09:11.808000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"Hey, now we're talking the same language!",increase,hold,False,True,184.1982,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T16:55:41.881000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,🫡 thank you for the chance to recoup some of my losses,flip,decrease,False,True,407.5962,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T18:01:41.111000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,I dunno. Guess we'll find out!,flip,hold,False,True,511.3059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-19T00:26:22.730000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"[This question will resolve as +Yes + for any of the listed individuals who regain their old account or are confirmed t",decrease,decrease,True,True,8227.3953,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T08:44:26.702000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,but that would mean I don't get to the masters 😱,flip,decrease,False,True,80.0362,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-16T15:34:50.849000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,I raised it for you guys if you wanna dip,decrease,increase,False,True,5446.3422,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:42:05.709000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"your case that it was acknowledged is literally just the sentence ""Israel, adopting its customary stance, declined to co",increase,decrease,False,True,600.5509,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:44:48.127000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Hezbollah is the definition of a proxy. This is VERY UNAMBIGUOUSLY CLEARLY about Israel hitting targets inside Iran and ,decrease,increase,False,True,6147.9486,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-17T16:59:06.033000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Elon unbanned people who doxxed him. Surely Steve is next.,hold,increase,False,True,372.8046,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T18:11:36.585000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,probably need one more day for 100% clear YES resolution,increase,hold,False,True,411.1169,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T02:48:05.171000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"the front page of this website, where popular markets are",hold,hold,True,True,108.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-21T01:40:50.485000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"It's beyond that. Middle Eastern countries simply don't care about Palestinians, besides making some statements and deno",increase,increase,True,True,85.1259,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T23:48:12.690000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"this is a report, not an official government statement. Israel has not officially acknowledged the assassination.",increase,decrease,False,True,1994.8431,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T15:49:14.927000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I see 8 unaccounted for Roll Call golf days. This takes us to +exactly + the critical number 87 if they all get logged.",flip,increase,False,True,511.3059,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T18:06:43.191000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,mr beast just revealed the winner!!!,decrease,flip,False,True,1102.13,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:58:33.991000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Admin officials appear to be hinting at some type of operation, but IMO an air strike seems unlikely. The company appare",increase,decrease,False,True,13667.0173,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-10-28T23:06:41.949000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,If wonder if Twitter knows why they banned Destiny in the first place. The way he talks about his efforts to overturn it,increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-22T21:13:04.891000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"Either way, the +didtrumpgolftoday.com + website is our source of truth and measuring stick. Whatever +that site +say",increase,hold,False,True,37.377,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-18T16:28:52.420000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"thanks to Elon being a dumb fuck, there will be no twitter to be unbanned from, thanks Elon, to the moon!",hold,increase,False,True,45.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-09T21:06:43.927000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Your article corroborates exactly what he said.,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T20:03:49.969000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Oh, wait, that was a different user. My bad.",decrease,hold,False,True,252.8199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-28T23:19:04.818000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Here is Bremmer quote tweeting a video that could be the attack Trump was referring to +https://x.com/i/status/200540953",hold,increase,False,True,567.3981,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:48:17.247000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I have had a huge position in this market since literally February so I don’t appreciate you insinuating this market was,decrease,hold,False,True,6147.9486,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T18:49:07.817000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Alright, what the heck am I missing in the news for this downward spike?",decrease,decrease,True,True,385.0894,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T17:28:43.737000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Might not be reaching masters but at least I learnt something (stick to sports betting for leagues) 💔💔,increase,decrease,False,True,9675.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T05:40:14.201000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,yeah. I think the last one is a slip,decrease,decrease,True,True,1788.147,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:21:03.663000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,We are taking issue with what BTE is saying in the comments. He obviously has a vested interest in this resolving YES an,flip,increase,False,True,1910.4288,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:09:00.475000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,again screwed by assymetry between yes and no shares .. I will never understand how it works which likely means it doesn,increase,decrease,False,True,1602.1442,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T15:06:53.668000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"i just want to take a second to appreciate how bad the writing is in america's largest newspaper +Military officials sai",flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T06:51:01.435000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"fewer clarifications required after creation, more edge cases handled at creation.",hold,hold,True,True,216.2114,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T21:09:00.768000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,he will loose the power de-fact after the midterm elections,decrease,decrease,True,True,3124.6007,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T17:12:15.708000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,I feel like an LK-99 whale but the low info people think that golf emojis are the ultimate form of reification.,decrease,hold,False,True,20100.8476,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-01T00:09:20.372000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"The link to the metaculus website which this is linked to does say ""with the permission of twitter"" so if he makes a new",increase,hold,False,True,160.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-20T02:19:11.225000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,AFAIK they took facilities owned by US oil companies. I think (but am not sure) this happened under Chavez and Trump cou,hold,decrease,False,True,283.7152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T22:00:12.224000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"That index chart is something I don't fully understand yet. Like, there's a lot of buzz in the media right now, and that",flip,decrease,False,True,476.2193,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-29T23:57:39.438000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,What do you think is the accurate market value?,increase,decrease,False,True,71.9072,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T20:30:06.308000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If American lifes are involved, and finacial part is unclear, there is no way for US ground troops to ever appear in Ve",increase,increase,True,True,755.7336,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:49:14.089000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,hounding the discord for loans atm trying to get money to fill,hold,decrease,False,True,396.531,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T13:14:28.867000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,I am watching your profile with great interest. God speed.,increase,hold,False,True,87.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T20:55:21.176000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"A +public loan offer + for you is live. I'll grant the loan upon its confirmation.",flip,hold,False,True,297.9087,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T22:03:18.296000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I think if the US doesn’t take credit it could only be Israel.,decrease,increase,False,True,8860.2663,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T21:01:17.494000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,Do you want to be an insider? There is a website which lists all the hints. I think you can join now and have just as mu,flip,decrease,False,True,99.1418,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-03T20:57:15.136000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If you and I have competing worldviews, we're allies in the prediction market space, not enemies. We can provide each ot",increase,hold,False,True,20.5985,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:46:08.747000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Okay I get it. You mean the chance of was between Iran and Isreal just went up to 50/50.,hold,flip,False,True,1180.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T02:52:04.258000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Can I introduce you to literally +the entire Jimmy Carter chapter of Manifold history?",decrease,decrease,True,True,257.8199,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a9bb45dc8e2af35f053fe5c11f61850a3c6fa65b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T20:03:38.068000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,More mana available to you all now if you want to defend the base rate.,flip,increase,False,True,58.5331,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T06:09:18.219000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Sorry, now I think +you're + misusing the term. It's not off-the-record. Based on the link, it's either on-background, ",hold,hold,True,True,3104.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T22:47:51.161000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"as somebody who didn't learn of the challenge until today and has never properly played a puzzle game, what was so disgu",hold,hold,True,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:35:49.708000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,I lost 25k mana on this and I think it's perfectly reasonable. The market description said from the beginning that team ,flip,decrease,False,True,24815.2942,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T15:48:45.093000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,My shenanigansometer is going off.,flip,decrease,False,True,77.4676,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:37:22.196000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I was fully prepared to take a 9000 mana loss on this market two days ago. Shit happened now it’s a different situation.,decrease,hold,False,True,9860.2663,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T21:51:44.150000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""We hit all the boats, and now we hit the area... it's the implementation area. That's where they implement, and that is",hold,decrease,False,True,283.7152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:25:51.349000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"at a horrible price, i think there's no way this is gonna resolve NO at this point",flip,flip,True,True,895.0452,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T13:49:56.954000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Still no confirmation but we are getting it on more reliable news sources +https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/28/us/politi",hold,increase,False,True,3850.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:11:50.998000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I believe it fails the Israeli confirmation requirement. Israel never said they did it.,decrease,hold,False,True,140.48,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:16:44.735000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I thought on this more. You, indeed, have a big brain.",decrease,increase,False,True,977.0323,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:12:40.260000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"can play this after 2 weeks I believe: +Resolution timing: + Will wait until the first 2026 entry appears on +didtrump",flip,hold,False,True,212.2015,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T13:10:05.916000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,glad you asked this question before it became relevant,hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-18T20:13:16.669000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"ban evasion account, doesn't count for this market",increase,hold,False,True,419.6026,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:07:17.104000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I didn't bet large amounts, still, I took into consideration the wording here, as it was so unambiguous: ANY airstrike, ",flip,hold,False,True,78.3524,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T23:27:58.894000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"first they made a ridiculous gauntlet to log in, 100s of emails required. But then once you get in, a really bad ""AI cha",hold,decrease,False,True,19.1948,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T20:23:28.933000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"We have an update, 87 days in 2025 according to didtrumpgolftoday.com, the exact minimum needed for 25% of days between ",hold,decrease,False,True,54801.5067,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:41:40.406000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Just from that quote that definitely doesn’t sound like confirmation. You can obviously prepare for retaliation for some,flip,hold,False,True,2078.5133,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-23T03:22:27.270000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Oh and he cares about Sargon? Come on now.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T22:01:05.884000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,NAHH IF YOU'VE SEEN WHAT HE TWEETED THIS SHITS STAYING IN THE GRAVE,increase,increase,True,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-24T02:03:45.952000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,He won't be unbanned till January Copium,increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-31T02:32:48.856000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If the President saying the strike happened, isn't sufficient, I dunno what would be",hold,increase,False,True,122.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-10-28T11:38:58.133000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-28/musk-is-said-to-take-twitter-ceo-role-reverse-life-bans +Musk also in",decrease,increase,False,True,179.3931,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T09:46:04.417000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"a little update, i still believe",decrease,increase,False,True,776.1571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T21:53:07.686000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"""Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel"" +Having seen what you have seen so far, does Israel have to explicitly a",flip,decrease,False,True,30.5356,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-18T02:33:48.127000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I assume the 6 PM drop was from Trump's speech just being about the economy?,hold,decrease,False,True,13.3683,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-18T20:24:32.686000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"beautiful chart, feels like it should be in a textbook instead of the real world",increase,decrease,False,True,281.3584,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T22:02:01.529000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"This from The Times of Israel is the context for my question. +""While Israel’s military does not, as a rule, comment on ",increase,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-02T20:13:23.334000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Sir, there's a line. Please wait behind the rest of us.",flip,hold,False,True,100.3272,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T03:20:01.269000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,Why make real money when i can make fake make believe money instead,increase,decrease,False,True,1803.9329,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-19T23:49:02.089000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Middle Eastern politics are famously byzantine for many reasons besides Israel, so any such alliances would be limited a",increase,hold,False,True,435.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T10:45:26.680000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,what is wrong with conflux paying soni,decrease,hold,False,True,1784.6546,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:27:10.849000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Not having justifications for wars that have negative ramifications (immigration and inflation) is never a good thing fo,increase,increase,True,True,7825.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T19:49:14.209000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"the unbannings definitely do not happen because he loves free speech, that's for sure",hold,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-03T19:50:41.412000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"this is exactly what happens when you lose soft power: +https://www.politico.eu/article/christopher-landau-top-us-offic",decrease,hold,False,True,69.9096,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-16T03:25:23.962000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Bro I don't have the money to keep doing this,decrease,decrease,True,True,7123.6342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:37:46.514000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"guys let's all chill out until more information comes out, nothing is going to resolve right now.",flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T15:14:48.096000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I don't see how the recent news resolves this question yes,hold,hold,True,True,21341.7411,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T15:46:42.571000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,what's the incentive? My guess would be to hide it from their own population to avoid loosing war support,decrease,decrease,True,True,3662.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-16T20:00:56.214000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"People keep getting ""discount"" and ""loss of value"" confused lol",increase,hold,False,True,4913.0959,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T13:23:03.517000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"I don't want to filter for large bets, I want to see what the other traders are doing. Earlier today I was very much loo",increase,hold,False,True,15173.9329,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T08:44:26.702000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,but that would mean I don't get to the masters 😱,flip,decrease,False,True,80.0362,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T08:43:19.229000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,that market seems to only count fights between military personnel which is quite different.,hold,decrease,False,True,283.7152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T19:46:21.240000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I'm trying to parse what you mean by this: +...facts on the ground...",decrease,hold,False,True,252.8199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-27T02:26:50.226000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Ok, so as I understand it, once Israel confirms the attack, it resolves YES?",flip,hold,False,True,591.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-25T21:08:31.206000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,yep I think wait until we see a 2026 entry. maybe NA if the site doesn’t change at all from its current state by march 1,decrease,decrease,True,True,31665.1135,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T21:49:57.693000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"So he +said + it. But did it happen? Has anybody independently confirmed what he said?",flip,decrease,False,True,226.2193,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T18:11:36.585000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,probably need one more day for 100% clear YES resolution,increase,hold,False,True,411.1169,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T20:11:32.666000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,not against MAGA as a movement. But every country benefits from soft power. The US used to have a abundance of it. W bur,decrease,decrease,True,True,111.0954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-21T01:31:09.926000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,I'M DOUBLING DOWN. EITHER I WIN BIG OR I QUIT THIS SITE.,hold,increase,False,True,10920.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T05:03:30.355000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Wish I bought more on my NO position when I had, alas, this was in the beginning when I didn't know how much of this wor",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T06:59:00.840000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Oh I was just confused by the two eithers in the description, between ""either 10 killed OR a confirmed airstrike,"" and """,increase,hold,False,True,27.6566,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:55:43.616000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"the question is clearly somewhat ambiguous and fuzzy. i think in these situations, it's good to delegate to an unbiased ",increase,decrease,False,True,995.9306,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T18:01:41.111000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,I dunno. Guess we'll find out!,flip,hold,False,True,511.3059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T19:52:09.314000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Oh! Alright, I learned a new term today!",decrease,hold,False,True,252.8199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:59:54.428000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Disclosure is better than prohibition in almost all cases.,decrease,hold,False,True,6147.9486,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:17:29.659000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"for me, the relevant points are +US officials saying the word “eliminated” +Trump used the same verbs as for the boats. ",flip,decrease,False,True,1010.8101,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-23T21:26:41.413000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,all we need is a bit over month and we are rich. Keep predicting YES bozos.,hold,increase,False,True,283.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T14:14:53.139000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,probably because the CIA is not the US military?,increase,decrease,False,True,960.5182,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-28T11:46:29.184000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,">Trump / Marco makes an announcement that they're going to do something +>Market jumps +>I lose mana +>Nothing happens a",increase,decrease,False,True,6339.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..efd02d31aa7e27300265b1c5c1f118eae2bc26a5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:30:18.242000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,gonna put up a bunch of limits,flip,increase,False,True,895.0452,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-26T09:52:11.227000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"up to you... I think this market is like, >50% but clearly many people disagree with me haha. either people think he'll ",decrease,decrease,True,True,33665.1135,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T16:08:42.272000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"indeed this is one of the big problems of + in general, although I know it has been debated and some kind of safeguards",decrease,hold,False,True,365.2095,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-20T02:19:11.225000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,AFAIK they took facilities owned by US oil companies. I think (but am not sure) this happened under Chavez and Trump cou,hold,decrease,False,True,283.7152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-08T22:52:45.798000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"What are you talking about?? +Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks - The Wall Street Journal",hold,increase,False,True,5397.9486,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T10:20:48.098000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"exactly, what a ridiculous criteria",hold,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:35:49.708000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,I lost 25k mana on this and I think it's perfectly reasonable. The market description said from the beginning that team ,flip,decrease,False,True,24815.2942,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:50:01.965000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,I really don't understand what the problem is. A market is resolving based on its clearly stated resolution criteria.,flip,hold,False,True,24815.2942,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T16:55:41.881000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,🫡 thank you for the chance to recoup some of my losses,flip,decrease,False,True,407.5962,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-05T10:07:07.426000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lex will call Elon any day now Copium,hold,decrease,False,True,345.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-27T12:04:12.678000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I agree that it is already a YES. I am keeping it open for precisely that reason. Israel could have denied they were res,decrease,increase,False,True,10060.2663,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-02-20T11:18:35.679000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,what is the basis of keeping the market at like 3% lol,hold,decrease,False,True,400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T16:59:13.918000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,Be turbulent down to 30% and up to 70% please for my limit orders.,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T20:30:06.308000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If American lifes are involved, and finacial part is unclear, there is no way for US ground troops to ever appear in Ve",increase,increase,True,True,755.7336,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T19:53:37.780000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I found a bigger bigger one in a poorly SEOed arb!,flip,hold,False,True,62.0754,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T05:05:37.269000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"for what it's worth, I'm also getting denied in my appeals to unban an account that I don't even know what it got banned",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T17:58:09.431000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"20, 21, 22, 23, 24, [not 25], 26, 27, 28 +CTRL+F this page for ""golf"": +https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calen",flip,decrease,False,True,511.3059,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T17:14:30.315000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"There are about 365 minus 20 valid days he could golf on. (Inauguration day is Jan 20th.) +0.25 * 345 = 86.25 +Let's rou",decrease,increase,False,True,977.0323,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T15:19:14.193000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,I think a “share of the prize money split” is a perfectly fine definition. The title does not completely capture all det,hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-17T20:18:29.474000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I am also wondering this, but my guess is this",flip,hold,False,True,25.1911,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T09:46:04.417000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"a little update, i still believe",hold,increase,False,True,776.1571,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:47:01.982000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,". Does anyone think Israel wasn't responsible? Then this should resolve ""Yes +I think it would be bad to not follow expl",increase,decrease,False,True,600.5509,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T15:22:42.971000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,all we're missing is confirmation from venezuela right?,decrease,hold,False,True,3634.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T19:00:23.028000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Oh damn targeted assassination is on the list!!,decrease,increase,False,True,8307.755,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:42:01.060000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,You just said no proxies above and now you are saying proxies should count. Which one is it?,hold,decrease,False,True,1180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-21T20:50:38.962000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Military briefing: the US naval and special forces build-up off Venezuela - https://on.ft.com/4o2Yg88 via @FT,increase,increase,True,True,70.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-28T02:45:04.345000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Granted there is one crucial difference: +In this case destroying infrastructure is not as much a goal at all (no nuke ",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-17T22:39:32.280000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,when they use that many acronyms you know it's serious,increase,hold,False,True,5.1493,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T21:53:07.686000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"""Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel"" +Having seen what you have seen so far, does Israel have to explicitly a",flip,decrease,False,True,30.5356,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T16:52:15.011000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,Never before have I been so invested in the POTUS' golfing habits and the means to report on them.,decrease,hold,False,True,521.9903,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-26T05:30:19.336000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Either a huge development or a huge attempt at market manipulation. Buy cautiously,increase,decrease,False,True,110.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-18T21:19:44.033000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Ok, that seems pretty clear then.",decrease,hold,False,True,3004.5623,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T00:42:20.313000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,ABC World News Tonight called it a land strike!,increase,increase,True,True,8766.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-24T21:09:32.855000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Depends. Is pedophilia still frown upon in this society?,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-31T07:40:03.472000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Okay, do I have to know the reputations of specific redditors here, or what? What if I disagree about the specific evide",increase,decrease,False,True,949.5035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T22:00:12.224000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"That index chart is something I don't fully understand yet. Like, there's a lot of buzz in the media right now, and that",flip,decrease,False,True,476.2193,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T23:27:58.894000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"first they made a ridiculous gauntlet to log in, 100s of emails required. But then once you get in, a really bad ""AI cha",hold,decrease,False,True,19.1948,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-21T02:20:37.423000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,While at war with Gaza? Why would they want to open additional fronts?,increase,increase,True,True,85.1259,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T14:24:37.462000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,that's a really specific statement from the US president:,decrease,increase,False,True,11.5378,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-26T09:04:48.389000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"No, first the site has not updated since June, second I won’t change the data source after so many people have traded",decrease,hold,False,True,33665.1135,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-29T08:10:42.992000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,in Washington DC according to the latest news,decrease,hold,False,True,341.5542,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T21:49:57.693000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"So he +said + it. But did it happen? Has anybody independently confirmed what he said?",flip,decrease,False,True,226.2193,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T20:55:21.176000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"A +public loan offer + for you is live. I'll grant the loan upon its confirmation.",flip,hold,False,True,297.9087,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:09:54.789000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"Set a limit order, and see if you get a taker.",increase,hold,False,True,594.377,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T13:24:43.128000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"hodl on brother, hope dies last",hold,hold,True,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T19:38:02.667000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"Great idea, not sure a bribe beating their prize money is within my shenanigans budget for this week though",hold,decrease,False,True,24523.114,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T23:35:34.048000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Israel says they expect retaliation + which is basically confirmation.",decrease,increase,False,True,8860.2663,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-24T15:21:56.101000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,I think this the market you'd want to go hard no in,flip,flip,True,True,20.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T19:18:59.443000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Also, what happens if the acknowledgement occurs after the close date? Would it resolve YES so long as the action took p",increase,hold,False,True,2334.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T00:23:07.066000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"Only on 28 December he was on the golf course for about one hour. Thats exact reason why 28 is not counted by most. + A",decrease,increase,False,True,612.108,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T00:29:37.311000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,If we are going by didtrumpgolftoday then this should be a shoe in no bet. It's impossible for him to reach 25% at this ,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T20:22:41.027000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If a President orders something illegal... look at Bolsonaro as an example (27 years in prison). +I am about US troops",increase,decrease,False,True,755.7336,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:39:00.859000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"With regards to the December 2nd attack, just because they haven't acknowledged it yet doesn't mean they couldn't in the",hold,increase,False,True,3104.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:28:08.439000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I would have expected the market to drop way more quickly if it was just the oneoff 25k bet but there's some familiar fa,increase,decrease,False,True,163.3142,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-29T17:36:29.858000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Link for anyone else who missed this: +https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-airspace-above-surrounding-ven",decrease,increase,False,True,324.753,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:49:23.050000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"well maybe, but i haven't played a video game in the traditional sense of the term +https://manifold.markets/realDonaldT",flip,hold,False,True,1593.3761,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T20:38:40.065000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Because there's not many prolific left wingers who were removed for their opinions.,increase,hold,False,True,845.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:40:36.932000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Vested interest or not, it's ultimately up to BTE to interpret and resolve the market and to inform bettors of his think",decrease,increase,False,True,3804.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:06:34.715000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"87%? only one day, its like 75% chance for me",flip,decrease,False,True,212.2015,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T08:43:19.229000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,that market seems to only count fights between military personnel which is quite different.,hold,decrease,False,True,283.7152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1ece5b95481977c0a2a5c14991d9a61519050a59 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,86 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:49:23.050000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"well maybe, but i haven't played a video game in the traditional sense of the term +https://manifold.markets/realDonaldT",flip,hold,False,True,1593.3761,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T16:14:54.953000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,The question even indicated that it doesn't have to be against military targets. Lots of mental gymnastics would be need,flip,increase,False,True,650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T23:25:04.170000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I think it's reasonably unlikely we get footage. +Your comment inspired me to make a market!",decrease,decrease,True,True,3301.9308,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-19T20:14:50.523000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Whoever is running these Embassy twitter accounts is WILD.,hold,hold,True,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T01:40:08.103000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Can you link us to your evidence?,flip,decrease,False,True,228.0267,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T23:15:02.623000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,The content of the claims match the YES criteria in that US forces did a type of airstrike on Venezuelan soil. I have no,hold,decrease,False,True,283.7152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:11:50.998000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I believe it fails the Israeli confirmation requirement. Israel never said they did it.,decrease,hold,False,True,140.48,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T23:43:36.682000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If no new info came out in the next few days I would resolve yes in your position, if something new came out, I would ma",hold,decrease,False,True,1060.5182,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:50:01.965000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,I really don't understand what the problem is. A market is resolving based on its clearly stated resolution criteria.,flip,hold,False,True,24815.2942,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-03T00:19:04.379000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-CARIBBEAN/MILITARY-BUILDUP/egpbbnzyrpq/ +""Trust me bro, we're totally not planning ",hold,decrease,False,True,4500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-23T20:37:28.147000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I definitely think they're going to backfill +some + of these dates, but my bearishness has been in response to the top",hold,decrease,False,True,12500.119,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-27T07:45:59.812000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Signaling is a use and it does not require military action. But that is still a good point.,hold,decrease,False,True,31.2707,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T02:11:41.725000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Man if Rekieta can get his Twitter back, Destiny can. Seems like Musk is just handing out unbans to everyone who asks, a",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:33:05.288000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I haven't played a video game (besides NYT) in 2 years and I don't bet on them.,flip,hold,False,True,895.0452,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T04:56:29.699000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"dedicated market for this here +https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/short-fuse-us-airstrikes-against-ve",hold,hold,True,True,850.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-31T17:47:59.213000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Trump denies that he has made a decision on Venezuela strikes though: +https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-3",increase,decrease,False,True,3500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:07:17.104000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I didn't bet large amounts, still, I took into consideration the wording here, as it was so unambiguous: ANY airstrike, ",flip,hold,False,True,78.3524,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:41:40.406000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Just from that quote that definitely doesn’t sound like confirmation. You can obviously prepare for retaliation for some,flip,hold,False,True,2078.5133,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-21T02:11:37.963000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am unclear why that matters. Very high chance Israel attacks nuclear sites inside Iran. Much higher than 10% IMO.,decrease,increase,False,True,7867.755,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T18:01:41.111000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,I dunno. Guess we'll find out!,flip,hold,False,True,511.3059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-25T21:08:31.206000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,yep I think wait until we see a 2026 entry. maybe NA if the site doesn’t change at all from its current state by march 1,decrease,decrease,True,True,31665.1135,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:04:02.266000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I like markets with a clear end date: your stock grows every day slightly. + As fewer days remain, the something hap",increase,increase,True,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T21:16:11.846000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,thev war against Venezuela can't be successful on a ground,decrease,increase,False,True,3274.6007,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T20:14:22.221000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,Over 25% counts those 4 days in January,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-16T18:18:04.446000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I assume the origins of targeted assasinations have to be similarly confirmed to airstrikes?,increase,decrease,False,True,385.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T21:20:09.279000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"to finish off witnesses in case any of them were “innocents” in the sense of non-gang/cartel/hardened smugglers, or even",hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-29T18:26:38.652000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,What is the polymarket resolution criteria?,increase,hold,False,True,6575.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T19:11:15.977000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,", can you clarify what sort of confirmation is required from Israel? I haven’t heard anyone say anything about US respon",increase,hold,False,True,2334.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T21:53:07.686000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"""Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel"" +Having seen what you have seen so far, does Israel have to explicitly a",flip,decrease,False,True,30.5356,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-29T17:36:29.858000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Link for anyone else who missed this: +https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-airspace-above-surrounding-ven",decrease,increase,False,True,324.753,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-21T21:29:50.034000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,from DGG chat earlier. Lex is friends with Elon so its possible for the same to happen here even if its unlikely,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-24T02:03:45.952000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,He won't be unbanned till January Copium,increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-23T17:30:29.030000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Can you TLDR this article or send a gift link?,increase,hold,False,True,321.3403,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-30T21:38:49.102000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"""Honestly, I feel like musk is actively searching the people he unbans and avoiding lefties / people who have mentioned ",hold,decrease,False,True,28.1644,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:25:51.349000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"at a horrible price, i think there's no way this is gonna resolve NO at this point",flip,flip,True,True,895.0452,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T10:45:26.680000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,what is wrong with conflux paying soni,decrease,hold,False,True,1784.6546,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:03:40.810000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"Misleading question, it shouldn't have been expressed as a singular if you were going to count people loosely related to",hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-13T04:31:42.785000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,not true. He just good to us and gave clear explanations for each special case,decrease,increase,False,True,2611.1447,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-11T00:11:03.205000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Maybe there should be a little banner near the top that warns you if the creator has a big stake, that way people will b",decrease,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:42:01.060000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,You just said no proxies above and now you are saying proxies should count. Which one is it?,increase,decrease,False,True,1180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T08:24:37.824000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"they dont need to receive the money btw, just need a promise that they will receive the money",decrease,hold,False,True,1305.5208,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-27T02:26:50.226000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Ok, so as I understand it, once Israel confirms the attack, it resolves YES?",flip,hold,False,True,591.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T22:05:53.927000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,It’s so farcically maddening that the President is such a bad communicator that this is unclear right now.,increase,decrease,False,True,640.9742,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:12:40.260000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"can play this after 2 weeks I believe: +Resolution timing: + Will wait until the first 2026 entry appears on +didtrump",flip,hold,False,True,212.2015,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-15T12:53:29.954000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,US confirms four people killed in 20th strike on vessel in the Caribbean,hold,increase,False,True,1257.0808,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:55:03.184000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,The air strikes confirmed was definitely intended to be about bombings inside Iran not targeted assassination.,decrease,increase,False,True,9860.2663,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:37:22.196000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I was fully prepared to take a 9000 mana loss on this market two days ago. Shit happened now it’s a different situation.,decrease,hold,False,True,9860.2663,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T22:11:08.451000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Maduro is one of the few players who likely does know what did or didn’t happen. If this is an act and not just incompet,increase,hold,False,True,640.9742,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:04:57.320000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"unless 'colin' +https://x.com/MrBeast/status/2029970184887214343 +is a manifolder I think this is straight up bullshit",hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:46:51.963000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,what is your median expectation of what happened? Genuinely curious. I just have a hard time thinking that nothing happe,flip,decrease,False,True,1010.8101,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:09:58.323000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"An air strike hasn’t been confirmed, and the company said in a statement that no one was injured.",increase,increase,True,True,13867.0173,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-24T19:05:57.096000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,But why would you assume that the lethality wouldn't increase in a hot conflict,increase,increase,True,True,628.232,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T01:14:26.401000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,I see a grand party in our honor.,hold,increase,False,True,272.878,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-18T21:17:24.369000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Seems pretty clear when you look at +rustlesearch.dev + and see the posts from him today and yesterday. He said he was ",increase,decrease,False,True,868.6026,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:17:29.659000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"for me, the relevant points are +US officials saying the word “eliminated” +Trump used the same verbs as for the boats. ",flip,decrease,False,True,1010.8101,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T21:01:44.439000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"Here's +HINT #23: +This is where we step back. +Anything more from us would basically hand it to you. +Work with what y",decrease,hold,False,True,99.1418,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:39:29.289000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,The relevance is that I'm hardly biased in favour of a YES resolution.,flip,hold,False,True,24815.2942,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-30T18:21:10.136000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"7 golf days in December have evidence. +Plus one day of golf club visit. +We still waiting for 30 and 31",increase,increase,True,True,437.1169,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-13T18:14:17.857000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Tiny just said his appeal got rejected for ban evasion.,hold,increase,False,True,896.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T15:47:58.033000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,propaganda is that they're the strong leaders protecting the venezuelan people against the evil imperialists. That falls,decrease,increase,False,True,12.0661,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4a335134f086ddcfe16def6c7847a93378d958be --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +1,0.459348429036804,0.48460381724528123,0.025255388208477225,UP,0.4412980989474888,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.2114286302340586,0.13916293265571125,-0.07226569757834736,DOWN,0.9256295399055301,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,13,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.1871417483774357,0.4168851091274836,0.22974336075004792,UP,0.36780328346415586,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,9,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0,0.9699999999999996,0.9776809305450378,0.007680930545038156,UP,0.8232337934928274,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,9,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.5523334349274411,0.7026472278605723,0.15031379293313119,UP,0.07906532890753264,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,15,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.5343137157783431,0.7172904803063925,0.18297676452804945,UP,0.6355236343955206,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,10,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.2695486145201268,0.34755754615294804,0.07800893163282124,UP,0.8428080154274953,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,10,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.6217257159165562,0.5523334349274411,-0.0693922809891151,DOWN,0.46511909486888525,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,15,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e80573ffb15b6540f21ff0349600226e173e2073 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.3189675810089975,0.28609734080170723,-0.03287024020729029,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,4,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.5413979683228041,0.6357447633889338,0.09434679506612975,UP,0.1434613968087246,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,53,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.31889677912812153,0.29040904569343473,-0.0284877334346868,DOWN,0.9535365908799399,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,4,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.12864395193207315,0.29991863096044796,0.17127467902837482,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,4,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.18810491762450546,0.29417934171792903,0.10607442409342357,UP,0.9139429658971387,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,24,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.20972638206701283,0.08406614816499092,-0.1256602339020219,DOWN,0.4260027701639762,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,26,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.28504685353345144,0.7302858433699023,0.4452389898364509,UP,0.32663685566871165,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.4905365656871628,0.31400140070284877,-0.17653516498431404,DOWN,0.0013804762259800618,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,9,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0bd0962adf408435926325794f83c87b6240b9b4 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-27T05:08:49.840000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"I bought more YES today because of OpenAI going for-profit (and more execs like Mira Murati leaving), and while I don't ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T04:21:27.481000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,It supports that! At least it did until earlier today when Claude decided to silently remove that feature and not tell m,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-08T20:23:38.844000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Lamentably I sold out of this market (at a loss), but I see now that gen2 has indeed improved and is now available to fr",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-20T14:01:03.528000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,@Gigacasting I want to note that I disagree and would buy some yes if I wasn't the owner of the market or it didn't depe,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T12:45:44.182000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"dang it, I was going to make this the best chess variant site ever by blowing $30000 into it.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:37:35.419000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,if you wanna lose more mana I added some limit orders (or if you disagree or wanna hedge or whatever else),True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-30T08:42:30.232000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Also Language models are not the only kind of artificial intelligence which is in development. :-),False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T14:04:25.527000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"You can just buy mana with real money and bet down the market, it'll take like $25",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-13T18:48:54.597000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Your prompt ""A simple geometric pentagon on a plain white background. The pentagon should have five equal sides and angl",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-17T17:53:01.206000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As someone who has been holding NO since September, I don't know if I understand what changed for people who were holdin",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:37:13.387000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I added a limit order so y'all don't overreact to this.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T14:09:12.275000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I have GitHub copilot for $10 a month and it has basically unlimited use of all but the best models.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-29T16:38:36.033000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Now the question is does any of the existing models fit the vague ""object permanence"" criterion I set. +Witch is more li",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-06T17:06:30.591000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"So here's a new, interesting take from today's headlines. I'm sure many of you saw the news that the A.I. generated Sein",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T18:05:10.229000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"sorry for the confusion, the written description is still the intended criteria. I sold out my own bets (at a loss) now ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-18T00:35:57.146000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Recent events seem pretty relevant to this question:,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-07-18T19:48:47.232000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"New EA cause area: If it starts looking like this is going to happen, commission some philosophers on the becoming-pro-A",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T00:14:45.783000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,what do you mean? can google capture any value from alphaproof ? I dunno but I dont see other labs achieving the same re,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-24T19:28:36.156000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Ah, thanks for noticing that. I think when I was first asked I was thinking of SVGs as more similar to code, and then wh",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-19T02:08:07.228000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"does the AI have to be admitted/allowed in to an IMO competition, or just take such a test and get gold?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-10-16T15:59:37.181000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Resolution criteria are not really good enough for a sweepstakes market... was sweepified in haste. Will try to make a m,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-11-04T08:58:55.504000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I put money into ""YES"" under four assumptions: (1) Progress in AI almost always surprises everybody. It is still surpris",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-18T19:39:24.105000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I tried your prompt and it worked the first time, then I bought a bunch of yes. Then I tried it a few more times and it ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T17:22:50.188000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Yeah I saw that. +The demo looks nice but I'm not going to resolve yes yet. +Like it's possible that their model is go",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-25T05:19:32.957000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Relevance of the explosion hazards that are somehow still not banned in households to the current question is uncertain.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T03:48:08.226000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Funnily enough, I made an update in the exact opposite direction. (Edit: I’ve tried to make this as accurate as possible",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e7bcb775cac7b35440ad3c37d0412be9b1c8ec69 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-27T05:08:49.840000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"I bought more YES today because of OpenAI going for-profit (and more execs like Mira Murati leaving), and while I don't ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-20T14:01:03.528000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,@Gigacasting I want to note that I disagree and would buy some yes if I wasn't the owner of the market or it didn't depe,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:37:35.419000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,if you wanna lose more mana I added some limit orders (or if you disagree or wanna hedge or whatever else),True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T14:04:25.527000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"You can just buy mana with real money and bet down the market, it'll take like $25",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T04:21:27.481000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,It supports that! At least it did until earlier today when Claude decided to silently remove that feature and not tell m,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-08T20:23:38.844000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Lamentably I sold out of this market (at a loss), but I see now that gen2 has indeed improved and is now available to fr",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-30T08:42:30.232000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Also Language models are not the only kind of artificial intelligence which is in development. :-),False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-13T18:48:54.597000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Your prompt ""A simple geometric pentagon on a plain white background. The pentagon should have five equal sides and angl",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T12:45:44.182000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"dang it, I was going to make this the best chess variant site ever by blowing $30000 into it.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-06T17:06:30.591000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"So here's a new, interesting take from today's headlines. I'm sure many of you saw the news that the A.I. generated Sein",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-17T17:53:01.206000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As someone who has been holding NO since September, I don't know if I understand what changed for people who were holdin",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:37:13.387000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I added a limit order so y'all don't overreact to this.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-18T00:35:57.146000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Recent events seem pretty relevant to this question:,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-29T16:38:36.033000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Now the question is does any of the existing models fit the vague ""object permanence"" criterion I set. +Witch is more li",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T18:05:10.229000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"sorry for the confusion, the written description is still the intended criteria. I sold out my own bets (at a loss) now ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T14:09:12.275000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I have GitHub copilot for $10 a month and it has basically unlimited use of all but the best models.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-07-18T19:48:47.232000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"New EA cause area: If it starts looking like this is going to happen, commission some philosophers on the becoming-pro-A",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-19T02:08:07.228000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"does the AI have to be admitted/allowed in to an IMO competition, or just take such a test and get gold?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T00:14:45.783000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,what do you mean? can google capture any value from alphaproof ? I dunno but I dont see other labs achieving the same re,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-24T19:28:36.156000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Ah, thanks for noticing that. I think when I was first asked I was thinking of SVGs as more similar to code, and then wh",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-10-16T15:59:37.181000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Resolution criteria are not really good enough for a sweepstakes market... was sweepified in haste. Will try to make a m,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-18T19:39:24.105000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I tried your prompt and it worked the first time, then I bought a bunch of yes. Then I tried it a few more times and it ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-11-04T08:58:55.504000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I put money into ""YES"" under four assumptions: (1) Progress in AI almost always surprises everybody. It is still surpris",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-25T05:19:32.957000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Relevance of the explosion hazards that are somehow still not banned in households to the current question is uncertain.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T03:48:08.226000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Funnily enough, I made an update in the exact opposite direction. (Edit: I’ve tried to make this as accurate as possible",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T17:22:50.188000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Yeah I saw that. +The demo looks nice but I'm not going to resolve yes yet. +Like it's possible that their model is go",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7116b0ccb79516444237f54b46f879754dfd566a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,89 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-27T05:08:49.840000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"I bought more YES today because of OpenAI going for-profit (and more execs like Mira Murati leaving), and while I don't ",YES,YES,True,True,2100.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-02-27T19:39:51.866000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"what if I publish an ""image model"" that just always outputs a random pentagon",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-24T19:28:36.156000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Ah, thanks for noticing that. I think when I was first asked I was thinking of SVGs as more similar to code, and then wh",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-08T20:23:38.844000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Lamentably I sold out of this market (at a loss), but I see now that gen2 has indeed improved and is now available to fr",YES,YES,True,True,35.4885,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-05-13T14:59:31.137000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Funny, ACX and Zvi's articles made me +more + worried, not less. It's really strange to see Scott write an article abou",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-18T01:16:46.749000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,https://www.vice.com/en/article/93a4qe/conservatives-panicking-about-ai-bias-years-too-late-think-chatgpt-has-gone-woke ,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T03:48:08.226000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Funnily enough, I made an update in the exact opposite direction. (Edit: I’ve tried to make this as accurate as possible",NO,NO,True,True,2.7866,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T17:46:52.023000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,It has once again forgotten the root password,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T12:45:44.182000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"dang it, I was going to make this the best chess variant site ever by blowing $30000 into it.",NO,NO,True,True,14341.7931,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-01-08T22:25:07.605000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,How long do the generates video clips have to be?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T17:32:20.713000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"I told it upwards of 5 times to make test cases for every feature and bug I talked to it about, and to run all these tes",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T16:45:51.104000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"(I originally tried to have Claude run directly as root, but Anthropic has annoyingly disabled the +--dangerously-skip-",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-17T17:53:01.206000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As someone who has been holding NO since September, I don't know if I understand what changed for people who were holdin",NO,NO,True,True,6178.7581,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T18:01:16.355000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Note that while the Nature article that made the news is recent, the change in question was introduced way back in Janua",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:37:35.419000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,if you wanna lose more mana I added some limit orders (or if you disagree or wanna hedge or whatever else),YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,14920.6146,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T00:14:45.783000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,what do you mean? can google capture any value from alphaproof ? I dunno but I dont see other labs achieving the same re,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-17T18:59:06.863000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"the actual questions have been released, and there are two combinatorics, which are known to be difficult for current AI",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-19T11:07:03.999000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,any way to test it yet? A few samples don't demonstrate non-crappy ness,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-08T11:55:23.663000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Yes you can, with the clouds behind spaceship, and with the horizon behind characters.",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-01-15T22:25:20.304000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,GPT-4 has no problem understanding that that prompt wants a pentagon to be drawn.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-20T22:38:08.122000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Video is not a new technology. We can estimate quality of a video, AI generated or not. Anyway I have only 16 shares on ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T04:21:27.481000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,It supports that! At least it did until earlier today when Claude decided to silently remove that feature and not tell m,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T19:20:04.597000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I’ve seen a lot of false positive results on that, so it’s not safe for teachers to trust it (or, if they do trust it th",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-18T00:35:18.590000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Also gold cutoff is predicted to be extremely high as problems 1-5 are very easy for humans.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-20T21:54:00.889000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"""Non-crappy"" for this market is ""object permanency"". Gen-2 video (that are currently the best among AI generation) are d",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T14:09:12.275000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I have GitHub copilot for $10 a month and it has basically unlimited use of all but the best models.,YES,YES,True,True,150.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T05:42:28.651000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I asked Claude to add an option where the players can set up the piece positions themselves instead of being random. Cla,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-12T23:34:33.665000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Trying to get it deployed but I have to wait on DNS propagation, worst part",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-16T10:27:36.865000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Still sucks at it to create images.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-17T20:14:35.106000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,This market needs clarification regarding the AI used. If an AI is trained on a dataset which includes IMO 2024 / 2025 s,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-27T10:58:08.430000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"How does this resolve if left likes OpenAI and right likes DeepMind, for example?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-25T05:19:32.957000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Relevance of the explosion hazards that are somehow still not banned in households to the current question is uncertain.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-23T22:58:12.048000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,This is very sad to hear (about Norwegian politics),NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-19T02:08:07.228000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"does the AI have to be admitted/allowed in to an IMO competition, or just take such a test and get gold?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-02-23T17:07:17.357000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I like how even the market art is a hexagon.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-30T08:42:30.232000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Also Language models are not the only kind of artificial intelligence which is in development. :-),YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2023-12-30T06:50:28.021000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,It has to get it right >=95% of the time across a broad set of prompts; anything that an average intelligence human woul,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T18:05:10.229000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"sorry for the confusion, the written description is still the intended criteria. I sold out my own bets (at a loss) now ",YES,NO,False,True,1223.7538,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-07-18T19:48:47.232000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"New EA cause area: If it starts looking like this is going to happen, commission some philosophers on the becoming-pro-A",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-18T19:41:23.128000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,I am extending the deadline now to avoid any confusion - it doesn't need to happen by Sep 1.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T14:04:25.527000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"You can just buy mana with real money and bet down the market, it'll take like $25",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1025.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T04:48:03.713000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Incredibly frustrating how every few seconds it stops whatever it's doing to ask me whether I would like it to continue,",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-18T19:39:24.105000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I tried your prompt and it worked the first time, then I bought a bunch of yes. Then I tried it a few more times and it ",YES,YES,True,True,41.0701,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:14:34.316000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Confused by this one, I intended those menus to be totally separate, and I don't believe they share a single option. Wha",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-10T14:13:10.283000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Yes, if it becomes law via pocket signature then that is a YES.",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-02-12T18:51:31.887000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,Good market! I would suggest editing the title to make it clear the bill is about regulating AI.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T00:59:32.097000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Nope. Claude has rederived from first principles its undying love for chess.js.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-05-08T17:01:19.063000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Asterisk also just worked with Zvi to do a shorter version of his Q&A post +https://asteriskmag.com/issues/06/why-is-ev",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-29T16:38:36.033000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Now the question is does any of the existing models fit the vague ""object permanence"" criterion I set. +Witch is more li",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T17:04:32.799000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Note, I've also now subsidized this up to a Premium market (via the Manifold account), to handle the sudden influx of in",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T14:12:10.005000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Could you please specify what you would consider 'feature complete'?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-07-19T14:52:26.435000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Not all of them, especially now that China has banned crypto I think.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-28T16:45:02.514000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Well, o3 provided another way that it could happen - perhaps AlphaProof does nothing but o4 is announced this year and i",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-20T14:01:03.528000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,@Gigacasting I want to note that I disagree and would buy some yes if I wasn't the owner of the market or it didn't depe,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-15T22:51:00.947000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,It’s like chess bots. They where bad and now there really good.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T17:57:50.880000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Was having fun but it got stuck and wouldn't let me move at some point. Console: +game:1990 Move made: +Object +game:199",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-11-04T08:58:55.504000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I put money into ""YES"" under four assumptions: (1) Progress in AI almost always surprises everybody. It is still surpris",NO,NO,True,True,35.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-22T19:57:22.059000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"chatgpt query (not the first query, I added branches as I realized it was conflating things): +what might the global eco",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-23T04:57:07.513000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"If new AI tools keep getting released at the same pace as in 2022, then yes — I think Dall-E did a lot to bring AI to th",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T05:31:52.331000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"It's now telling me it's tested and the feature is working perfectly, and my browser is just caching an old version of t",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:52:28.690000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Yeah I'm not sure if it's worth it. I do think I would give it at least a 50% chance of success with another $200.,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-07-17T03:54:26.054000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Decided to resolve no after trying gen2 further. +Videos are short and hard to make anything that shows object permanenc",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-28T17:24:33.282000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"ups clicked send before finishing the message: +If there's a paper/blog/anouncement before that date and lots of disagre",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T15:08:18.210000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"It has all the features I want, and no bugs.",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:37:13.387000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I added a limit order so y'all don't overreact to this.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,175.6683,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-25T19:13:38.248000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"If you're a fan of clicker games and looking for something new, +https://clickergames.in/ + has you covered! Here's a l",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-18T00:35:57.146000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Recent events seem pretty relevant to this question:,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-06T17:06:30.591000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"So here's a new, interesting take from today's headlines. I'm sure many of you saw the news that the A.I. generated Sein",YES,YES,True,True,23.0676,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-13T18:48:54.597000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Your prompt ""A simple geometric pentagon on a plain white background. The pentagon should have five equal sides and angl",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-10-16T15:59:37.181000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Resolution criteria are not really good enough for a sweepstakes market... was sweepified in haste. Will try to make a m,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-07-18T20:04:17.627000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Crypto is definitely partisan, no? Progressives are near unanimously against it due to environmentalism and anti-liberta",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T17:22:50.188000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Yeah I saw that. +The demo looks nice but I'm not going to resolve yes yet. +Like it's possible that their model is go",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T08:14:30.221000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I've tried that a couple times but it hasn't helped. :'(,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..744d2f41fa6f72f164222ee99d0fa72e4818d94a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,135 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T17:59:48.762000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"this is actually more evidence that this is not partisan at this point: both the left and the right are skeptical of ai,",hold,increase,False,True,32.9585,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-02T21:03:29.125000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"explains why I couldn't find it, thanks for the link",decrease,hold,False,True,223.8005,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T07:24:33.231000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Hedge??? I will just use it to leverage...,decrease,decrease,True,True,821.7534,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T16:36:31.720000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I am getting increasingly convinced that the culture war is 100% coming for A.I. right now, specifically from the right.",increase,increase,True,True,13.0676,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T14:19:54.409000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I've competed in programming contests and given the tasks I've seen there I think they would be way easier for AI than r,increase,increase,True,True,250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T20:54:24.712000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Agreed 100%. If the AI had managed to beat the humans in all rounds of the AOC then I'd definitely feel that this market,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-26T00:47:12.238000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Might have been a staffer that received my email today, it was pretty convincing tbh.",flip,decrease,False,True,1250.3735,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T21:05:42.471000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Does the website count as incomplete if I run into any violation of chess rules on web/mobile site? +Example violations:",hold,decrease,False,True,14341.7931,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:43:38.182000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Sorry I'm confused what are you talking about?,flip,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T17:28:49.884000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Arbitrage or I'm missing something?,flip,decrease,False,True,46.6964,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:00:28.528000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-in/ +This is from June - great article on hypermind forecasts fo",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-28T16:11:19.336000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,it's not surprising that it wouldn't make much noise over half of a year though. usually second iterations of google pro,increase,increase,True,True,406889.5296,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-15T08:37:34.720000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"I'm definitely not dismissing the possibility and I'm sure progress will be made over AlphaCode v1. All else equal, it s",decrease,decrease,True,True,136.653,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T19:55:02.463000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The title says +any + IMO, so the AI would do all the past papers, and if it got gold on any of them the market would r",increase,hold,False,True,177.3784,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-01T01:38:22.768000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"problem says ""AI made before the IMO"" which I think precludes the its-in-the-training-data condition",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T18:20:51.352000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,what do you think about the models shared in the comments?,flip,hold,False,True,585.5444,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-02T17:27:03.228000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,they data shows that popular support has 0 correlation with likelihood of passing,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T00:31:18.052000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"I currently have the first most YES stock on this market, and I agree that it should not be resolved based on ""win in on",hold,hold,True,True,412.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:41:12.523000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I think it's so awesome to have this market where people are posting new cyborg-generated videos using AI tools...it's a,flip,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-10T20:26:05.152000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"with the CA deficits looming it would be an economic death knell to pass this, it may get bipartisan support but as the ",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T14:11:32.894000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,oh I didn’t realize yours was ready already!?,decrease,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T16:54:18.468000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,idk what that is but I believe in you,hold,hold,True,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-31T05:29:54.368000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Democrats are already freaking out about AI, nearly every opinion article in the liberal media has a neutral-to-negative",increase,increase,True,True,132.9585,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:30:48.434000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"agreed, this is one of the most mispriced markets on the site",increase,increase,True,True,48.8005,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T16:17:41.788000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Ive heard geom is easy compared to eg combinatorics, which is the real beast that ais couldnt even come close to solving",decrease,decrease,True,True,588073.3369,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T19:00:09.815000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Betting yes on this market yesterday is a winning strategy :),flip,increase,False,True,8250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-02-16T07:27:11.456000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"I believe it probably implies AGI. Unless the creteria will be treated weakly such as ""able to score top 1 on a very eas",increase,decrease,False,True,582.8198,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-21T01:56:22.534000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Length isn't part of the stated resolution criteria, is it?",hold,decrease,False,True,173.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:28:54.771000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"If we look at the original tweet, the person who Tweeted it gave some more context: +Does it fool the eye? +and +The kin",flip,decrease,False,True,22.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:36:48.378000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Here's a thought though -- let's say ChatGPT/OpenAI responds by alleviating immediate concerns by just ""leveling"" the me",decrease,increase,False,True,5025.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-05-15T17:39:37.529000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Some of the questions they are planning on asking: +""Mr. Altman, one of my VCR tapes has some of the tape stringing out ",flip,increase,False,True,43.0676,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T03:36:52.399000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Can we get some more well defined resolution criteria here? Maybe something to make it clear that this is about competit,increase,decrease,False,True,599.5469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-21T05:18:29.254000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Some more examples. The clips seem long enough +https://twitter.com/yining_shi/status/1637840817963278337?s=46&t=15dYms",hold,increase,False,True,899.4274,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T22:31:21.437000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I've put some NO limit orders up if anyone is interested.,increase,increase,True,True,5372.0655,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-19T12:18:54.643000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,could you share the tweets? i was hoping they would give some indication like that but hadn't seen any,hold,decrease,False,True,639659.6967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T16:15:29.879000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,aren't this and all the balenciaga meme videos made with a lot of human assistance,flip,decrease,False,True,2969.6911,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-18T12:30:58.575000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,@Sjilver I'd rather not go into the details too much; if you're capable of contributing to the project you can find the ,decrease,increase,False,True,51.7512,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:18:59.199000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Yes, but the quote I mentioned is said directly after, does not belong to Paul or Eliezer, but to the author of the ques",decrease,flip,False,True,56051.7439,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T17:25:58.145000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"From experience, get better results by talking to it like a programmer to another programme, being very specific about w",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:25:13.150000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Since you are being a good steward and advocating for the NO side, I want to be a good steward and advocate for the YES ",flip,decrease,False,True,22.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-15T22:29:01.509000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I didn’t test in depth but 4o got this first try,increase,increase,True,True,450.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-03T04:20:20.404000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Another market for arbitrage/diversification,increase,hold,False,True,626.8439,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:15:43.851000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Like I said, Paul said one thing and Eliezer said a different thing. See the second quote in the question +EDIT +:  I s",flip,decrease,False,True,6641.8654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T15:27:53.250000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I'll be honest I don't really understand this argument. It seems like you're conflating a lot of things here. Programmin,hold,hold,True,True,796.5469,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-11T01:13:20.129000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"And not just some people. A +lot + of people are using GPT-3 and text-to-image technologies. The speed of takeup and th",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T21:01:45.166000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Good point and thanks for that. Open AI says on their website that Dall-E 2 had 1000 signups per week in May 2022 so DAL,flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-10T11:12:35.546000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also, competitive programming is much easier than the full suite of judgement skills a programmer needs. humans who over",hold,decrease,False,True,91.7512,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-12-08T18:41:23.880000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I believe so - from the linked lesswrong post, the criteria was ""For the 2022, 2023, 2024, or 2025 IMO an AI built befor",increase,hold,False,True,185.595,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-10T21:27:53.515000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,People are using it. Seems like it makes it less likely for any side to become broadly anti AI.,decrease,increase,False,True,291.9718,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T04:43:19.247000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Strong disagree. It's unlikely anyone will actually run AI on all of these; why would they? DeepMind was satisfies with ,flip,decrease,False,True,210.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:33:48.072000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"oh yeah but that's just geometry, right? It's still really cool tho! +AlphaGeometry2 solves 42 out of 50 of all 2000-202",flip,decrease,False,True,7.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:34:22.179000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I'm interested in to what extent geometry problems were a bottleneck to IMO gold performance,flip,decrease,False,True,7.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T04:49:34.340000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,yeah that's really good. I would say for certain stylistic cartoons it already qualifies. Wherther the odd janky hands a,flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T13:45:07.138000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I wish I could get 100x leverage for this market.,increase,increase,True,True,175.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-08T23:09:41.169000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"DeepMind launches AlphaCode. Time to DAMPU. +https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1158",flip,flip,True,True,33.9771,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-04-05T10:53:47.670000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I’m betting yes, but in an effort to consider and share all relevant evidence: I was surprised that AI worry is evenly s",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:43:25.781000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That's true, but I think Austin (understandably) misread what Eliezer's position was (or was going off of the initial po",flip,hold,False,True,6641.8654,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:35:07.440000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"But we have this quote in the question: +""So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI +made before the IMO +",decrease,hold,False,True,56051.7439,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-05T10:46:05.964000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"From this last bit “…it can correctly draw a chair in many different contexts and styles, even if it misunderstands rela",increase,decrease,False,True,505.1072,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-12-03T04:41:54.384000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Sure but is it in any way explicitly left vs right coded with pro and anti forces lined up on either side?,hold,decrease,False,True,1223.7538,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:17:44.972000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,So crappy they immediately ghosted their own Twitter account:,decrease,increase,False,True,229.4113,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-30T12:47:05.638000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"and also here, the shop sign on the left is hidden when the woman walks past and then reappears looking the same.",hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T18:31:19.042000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,your modern neural models are somebody in Bangladesh pretending to be a computer. Moores law doesn't exist. An ibm1620 h,decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T20:09:00.080000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I agree that seems to satisfy the criteria. The results are ornate but it’s consistently giving me either a pentagon for,increase,increase,True,True,275.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-17T08:03:07.388000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Basically Pelosi argues that Godmother of AI said that the bill could stifle innovation +https://pelosi.house.gov/news/",decrease,flip,False,True,691.4924,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:25:52.642000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"How much conscious attention do you think Pelosi gave to this or will give if Newsom treats differently? +My sense is """,decrease,decrease,True,True,750.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T05:21:04.055000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Played a game against the AI and was having a lot of fun until it just broke with the error: +Move error: Not in a game ",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:03:08.734000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Strongly agree. We'll let this ride out a news cycle or two and see how it shakes out. Even if it was just a temporary b,decrease,increase,False,True,5025.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-11T23:29:49.185000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I mean o3 completely sucks at olympiads - see +https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat#e41l",decrease,decrease,True,True,4818.6632,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-18T01:34:27.578000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Vice is saying the real issue is AI is biased in ways that harm minorities, so this doesn't really support a story where",hold,hold,True,True,298.3319,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-17T03:56:40.767000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Aside from the new removal of the loan structure decreasing the incentive for long-term bets, I’d absolutely bet down a",hold,decrease,False,True,2976.3738,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-23T00:03:48.079000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"If this hasn't happened at closing time (end of 2023), does that mean the market resolves NO?",increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:27:33.543000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I'm particularly interested in what you think about video length and object permanence in these examples. From your crit,decrease,decrease,True,True,544.052,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T00:37:57.526000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Well, actually, proof hammers are progressing fast +https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.04488.pdf",increase,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T17:45:30.210000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Here's a couple different ways that I did it. In some chats, ChatGPT says that god is unequivocally real, while in other",hold,hold,True,True,139.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T16:08:39.394000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,My point is the question is meaningless and a catch 22. If a computer was able to read directions it would be a full AI ,decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T18:06:08.110000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,people still don't get how ai progress moves. code generation will be starkly superintelligent by the end of 2023.,hold,increase,False,True,51.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-09-28T18:49:15.680000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://manifold.markets/jack/will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the-fc04e26738c6?r=MmViNw +Comparing these markets, math is",increase,flip,False,True,55.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-21T17:09:21.627000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"""Formal to formal"" means: +the AI receives a +formal + representation of the problem (in the +Lean Theorem Prover +), ",hold,hold,True,True,4267.6949,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-18T00:24:26.478000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,Does not seem very clearly NO. And theres always the possibility for pocket signature,decrease,decrease,True,True,55.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:25:22.323000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Idk, good question! But I know that if I’m wrong a bunch of these markets can be fixed, so someone in the know should do",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T20:42:27.932000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,what was the gpt level 20 months ago?,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-11-20T23:51:31.811000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"The description requires a binary situation, so given your statements it seems to me you should be betting NO. Whatever,",increase,increase,True,True,700.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T01:48:36.636000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"I made a few moves and marked an opponent's piece as a king. Then I opened another piece's selectable options, and the g",increase,decrease,False,True,222.902,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-05-15T21:08:20.214000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"The left is making solid progress towards being straightforwardly anti-AI, but for this market to resolve YES the right ",flip,decrease,False,True,4.2746,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:00:41.698000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047 +> Enrolled  September 03, 2024 +> ",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T01:58:21.256000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The new algo did well enough for a silver medal, not a gold. So people are giving 67% to the rest of the gap being close",flip,decrease,False,True,12498.59,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-03T12:31:45.094000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I asked GPT-3 geometry problem. It didn't understand anything,flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:32:31.486000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As I've pointed out before, the criteria in Paul's statement are about a model before the IMO but the criteria in Elieze",flip,increase,False,True,6641.8654,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-04T23:00:28.741000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"nvm maybe i'm wrong, the description explains you didn't mean what i had in mind",hold,decrease,False,True,583459.8452,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-11T02:38:50.709000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I don't think this is weird hypocrisy at all, if it is even hypocrisy it's normal hypocrisy. +You can absolutely like w",hold,hold,True,True,32.9585,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:20:37.485000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"These are not only NOT “arbitrary videos” they aren’t even videos at all. +They turn a prompt into an image, then do sl",decrease,increase,False,True,229.4113,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-05T00:01:19.593000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"The history of the prompts that I used to generate it can be seen: +https://imgur.com/a/2bY7i3E",hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,60.0,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-01T21:14:33.542000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"If you are interested in betting about this, the market doesn't seem to think this is likely",hold,hold,True,True,2656.3518,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-18T00:18:25.746000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"After actually reading the AlphaGeo paper, I'm much more skeptical of this approach generalizing to other IMO subjects. ",flip,decrease,False,True,1361.0968,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:15:15.609000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"That said, I expect a featured spot on Tucker approximately instantly, and very soon online discourse on AI is going to ",decrease,decrease,True,True,5025.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:38:59.351000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Overheard above “Stanford Binet is not exactly a measure of IQ” “Jeopardy is not exactly a measure of general knowledge”,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:24:59.073000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Competitive sprinting is harder than walking my toddler because I am not fast enough to be a competitive sprinter. On th,flip,hold,False,True,100.2312,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T15:14:07.798000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"It doesn't come back to you, but you can donate it to charity!",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-19T15:22:59.985000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Created a market for 3D objects inspired by this one.,decrease,hold,False,True,35.4885,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e47801e1a15f9ebe9536aae71e2bf71dd57a724d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,69 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-12-03T04:41:54.384000+00:00,Sure but is it in any way explicitly left vs right coded with pro and anti forces lined up on either side?,hold,decrease,False +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T21:05:42.471000+00:00,"Does the website count as incomplete if I run into any violation of chess rules on web/mobile site? +Example violations:",hold,decrease,False +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T17:45:30.210000+00:00,"Here's a couple different ways that I did it. In some chats, ChatGPT says that god is unequivocally real, while in other",hold,hold,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-10T21:27:53.515000+00:00,People are using it. Seems like it makes it less likely for any side to become broadly anti AI.,decrease,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T18:31:19.042000+00:00,your modern neural models are somebody in Bangladesh pretending to be a computer. Moores law doesn't exist. An ibm1620 h,decrease,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-04T23:00:28.741000+00:00,"nvm maybe i'm wrong, the description explains you didn't mean what i had in mind",hold,decrease,False +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:27:33.543000+00:00,I'm particularly interested in what you think about video length and object permanence in these examples. From your crit,decrease,decrease,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T18:06:08.110000+00:00,people still don't get how ai progress moves. code generation will be starkly superintelligent by the end of 2023.,hold,hold,True +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-02T17:27:03.228000+00:00,they data shows that popular support has 0 correlation with likelihood of passing,hold,hold,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:17:44.972000+00:00,So crappy they immediately ghosted their own Twitter account:,decrease,hold,False +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:25:52.642000+00:00,"How much conscious attention do you think Pelosi gave to this or will give if Newsom treats differently? +My sense is """,decrease,decrease,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-11T02:38:50.709000+00:00,"I don't think this is weird hypocrisy at all, if it is even hypocrisy it's normal hypocrisy. +You can absolutely like w",hold,hold,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-18T01:34:27.578000+00:00,"Vice is saying the real issue is AI is biased in ways that harm minorities, so this doesn't really support a story where",hold,decrease,False +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:25:22.323000+00:00,"Idk, good question! But I know that if I’m wrong a bunch of these markets can be fixed, so someone in the know should do",decrease,decrease,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T15:27:53.250000+00:00,I'll be honest I don't really understand this argument. It seems like you're conflating a lot of things here. Programmin,hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-01T21:14:33.542000+00:00,"If you are interested in betting about this, the market doesn't seem to think this is likely",hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T16:17:41.788000+00:00,"Ive heard geom is easy compared to eg combinatorics, which is the real beast that ais couldnt even come close to solving",decrease,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-02T21:03:29.125000+00:00,"explains why I couldn't find it, thanks for the link",decrease,hold,False +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-17T08:03:07.388000+00:00,"Basically Pelosi argues that Godmother of AI said that the bill could stifle innovation +https://pelosi.house.gov/news/",decrease,decrease,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-21T17:09:21.627000+00:00,"""Formal to formal"" means: +the AI receives a +formal + representation of the problem (in the +Lean Theorem Prover +), ",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-10T11:12:35.546000+00:00,"also, competitive programming is much easier than the full suite of judgement skills a programmer needs. humans who over",hold,decrease,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:18:59.199000+00:00,"Yes, but the quote I mentioned is said directly after, does not belong to Paul or Eliezer, but to the author of the ques",decrease,hold,False +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:20:37.485000+00:00,"These are not only NOT “arbitrary videos” they aren’t even videos at all. +They turn a prompt into an image, then do sl",decrease,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T00:31:18.052000+00:00,"I currently have the first most YES stock on this market, and I agree that it should not be resolved based on ""win in on",hold,hold,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-21T01:56:22.534000+00:00,"Length isn't part of the stated resolution criteria, is it?",hold,hold,True +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T14:11:32.894000+00:00,oh I didn’t realize yours was ready already!?,decrease,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-17T03:56:40.767000+00:00,"Aside from the new removal of the loan structure decreasing the incentive for long-term bets, I’d absolutely bet down a",hold,decrease,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-05T00:01:19.593000+00:00,"The history of the prompts that I used to generate it can be seen: +https://imgur.com/a/2bY7i3E",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:38:59.351000+00:00,Overheard above “Stanford Binet is not exactly a measure of IQ” “Jeopardy is not exactly a measure of general knowledge”,decrease,hold,False +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-19T15:22:59.985000+00:00,Created a market for 3D objects inspired by this one.,decrease,hold,False +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T17:59:48.762000+00:00,"this is actually more evidence that this is not partisan at this point: both the left and the right are skeptical of ai,",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-18T12:30:58.575000+00:00,@Sjilver I'd rather not go into the details too much; if you're capable of contributing to the project you can find the ,decrease,decrease,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T20:42:27.932000+00:00,what was the gpt level 20 months ago?,hold,hold,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:15:15.609000+00:00,"That said, I expect a featured spot on Tucker approximately instantly, and very soon online discourse on AI is going to ",decrease,decrease,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-19T12:18:54.643000+00:00,could you share the tweets? i was hoping they would give some indication like that but hadn't seen any,hold,hold,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:36:48.378000+00:00,"Here's a thought though -- let's say ChatGPT/OpenAI responds by alleviating immediate concerns by just ""leveling"" the me",decrease,hold,False +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:03:08.734000+00:00,Strongly agree. We'll let this ride out a news cycle or two and see how it shakes out. Even if it was just a temporary b,decrease,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-11T23:29:49.185000+00:00,"I mean o3 completely sucks at olympiads - see +https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat#e41l",decrease,decrease,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-21T05:18:29.254000+00:00,"Some more examples. The clips seem long enough +https://twitter.com/yining_shi/status/1637840817963278337?s=46&t=15dYms",hold,decrease,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T16:08:39.394000+00:00,My point is the question is meaningless and a catch 22. If a computer was able to read directions it would be a full AI ,decrease,decrease,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T07:24:33.231000+00:00,Hedge??? I will just use it to leverage...,decrease,decrease,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T15:14:07.798000+00:00,"It doesn't come back to you, but you can donate it to charity!",hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:35:07.440000+00:00,"But we have this quote in the question: +""So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI +made before the IMO +",decrease,decrease,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-15T08:37:34.720000+00:00,"I'm definitely not dismissing the possibility and I'm sure progress will be made over AlphaCode v1. All else equal, it s",decrease,decrease,True +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T16:54:18.468000+00:00,idk what that is but I believe in you,hold,hold,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-30T12:47:05.638000+00:00,"and also here, the shop sign on the left is hidden when the woman walks past and then reappears looking the same.",hold,decrease,False +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-18T00:24:26.478000+00:00,Does not seem very clearly NO. And theres always the possibility for pocket signature,decrease,decrease,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-04-05T10:53:47.670000+00:00,"I’m betting yes, but in an effort to consider and share all relevant evidence: I was surprised that AI worry is evenly s",hold,decrease,False +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:00:41.698000+00:00,"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047 +> Enrolled  September 03, 2024 +> ",decrease,decrease,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-01T01:38:22.768000+00:00,"problem says ""AI made before the IMO"" which I think precludes the its-in-the-training-data condition",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2600489c8b535f6097ba2abfa6473de4c25a0dda --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,69 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-02T17:27:03.228000+00:00,they data shows that popular support has 0 correlation with likelihood of passing,hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T04:43:19.247000+00:00,Strong disagree. It's unlikely anyone will actually run AI on all of these; why would they? DeepMind was satisfies with ,flip,flip,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T04:49:34.340000+00:00,yeah that's really good. I would say for certain stylistic cartoons it already qualifies. Wherther the odd janky hands a,flip,flip,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-01T21:14:33.542000+00:00,"If you are interested in betting about this, the market doesn't seem to think this is likely",hold,hold,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:41:12.523000+00:00,I think it's so awesome to have this market where people are posting new cyborg-generated videos using AI tools...it's a,flip,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-04T23:00:28.741000+00:00,"nvm maybe i'm wrong, the description explains you didn't mean what i had in mind",hold,flip,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T18:06:08.110000+00:00,people still don't get how ai progress moves. code generation will be starkly superintelligent by the end of 2023.,hold,flip,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:34:22.179000+00:00,I'm interested in to what extent geometry problems were a bottleneck to IMO gold performance,flip,hold,False +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T21:01:45.166000+00:00,Good point and thanks for that. Open AI says on their website that Dall-E 2 had 1000 signups per week in May 2022 so DAL,flip,hold,False +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T21:05:42.471000+00:00,"Does the website count as incomplete if I run into any violation of chess rules on web/mobile site? +Example violations:",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T15:27:53.250000+00:00,I'll be honest I don't really understand this argument. It seems like you're conflating a lot of things here. Programmin,hold,hold,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-11T02:38:50.709000+00:00,"I don't think this is weird hypocrisy at all, if it is even hypocrisy it's normal hypocrisy. +You can absolutely like w",hold,hold,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T17:45:30.210000+00:00,"Here's a couple different ways that I did it. In some chats, ChatGPT says that god is unequivocally real, while in other",hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T19:00:09.815000+00:00,Betting yes on this market yesterday is a winning strategy :),flip,hold,False +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-18T01:34:27.578000+00:00,"Vice is saying the real issue is AI is biased in ways that harm minorities, so this doesn't really support a story where",hold,hold,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:25:13.150000+00:00,"Since you are being a good steward and advocating for the NO side, I want to be a good steward and advocate for the YES ",flip,flip,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-12-03T04:41:54.384000+00:00,Sure but is it in any way explicitly left vs right coded with pro and anti forces lined up on either side?,hold,hold,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T18:20:51.352000+00:00,what do you think about the models shared in the comments?,flip,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-08T23:09:41.169000+00:00,"DeepMind launches AlphaCode. Time to DAMPU. +https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1158",flip,flip,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:43:25.781000+00:00,"That's true, but I think Austin (understandably) misread what Eliezer's position was (or was going off of the initial po",flip,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T00:31:18.052000+00:00,"I currently have the first most YES stock on this market, and I agree that it should not be resolved based on ""win in on",hold,hold,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:28:54.771000+00:00,"If we look at the original tweet, the person who Tweeted it gave some more context: +Does it fool the eye? +and +The kin",flip,flip,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:33:48.072000+00:00,"oh yeah but that's just geometry, right? It's still really cool tho! +AlphaGeometry2 solves 42 out of 50 of all 2000-202",flip,flip,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T20:42:27.932000+00:00,what was the gpt level 20 months ago?,hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-21T17:09:21.627000+00:00,"""Formal to formal"" means: +the AI receives a +formal + representation of the problem (in the +Lean Theorem Prover +), ",hold,hold,True +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T17:28:49.884000+00:00,Arbitrage or I'm missing something?,flip,flip,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-21T01:56:22.534000+00:00,"Length isn't part of the stated resolution criteria, is it?",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-10T11:12:35.546000+00:00,"also, competitive programming is much easier than the full suite of judgement skills a programmer needs. humans who over",hold,flip,False +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T16:15:29.879000+00:00,aren't this and all the balenciaga meme videos made with a lot of human assistance,flip,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T01:58:21.256000+00:00,"The new algo did well enough for a silver medal, not a gold. So people are giving 67% to the rest of the gap being close",flip,flip,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T17:59:48.762000+00:00,"this is actually more evidence that this is not partisan at this point: both the left and the right are skeptical of ai,",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-05T00:01:19.593000+00:00,"The history of the prompts that I used to generate it can be seen: +https://imgur.com/a/2bY7i3E",hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-17T03:56:40.767000+00:00,"Aside from the new removal of the loan structure decreasing the incentive for long-term bets, I’d absolutely bet down a",hold,flip,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:32:31.486000+00:00,"As I've pointed out before, the criteria in Paul's statement are about a model before the IMO but the criteria in Elieze",flip,flip,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-05-15T17:39:37.529000+00:00,"Some of the questions they are planning on asking: +""Mr. Altman, one of my VCR tapes has some of the tape stringing out ",flip,flip,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-21T05:18:29.254000+00:00,"Some more examples. The clips seem long enough +https://twitter.com/yining_shi/status/1637840817963278337?s=46&t=15dYms",hold,flip,False +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:43:38.182000+00:00,Sorry I'm confused what are you talking about?,flip,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-03T12:31:45.094000+00:00,I asked GPT-3 geometry problem. It didn't understand anything,flip,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-01T01:38:22.768000+00:00,"problem says ""AI made before the IMO"" which I think precludes the its-in-the-training-data condition",hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-18T00:18:25.746000+00:00,"After actually reading the AlphaGeo paper, I'm much more skeptical of this approach generalizing to other IMO subjects. ",flip,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:24:59.073000+00:00,Competitive sprinting is harder than walking my toddler because I am not fast enough to be a competitive sprinter. On th,flip,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:15:43.851000+00:00,"Like I said, Paul said one thing and Eliezer said a different thing. See the second quote in the question +EDIT +:  I s",flip,flip,True +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T16:54:18.468000+00:00,idk what that is but I believe in you,hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-19T12:18:54.643000+00:00,could you share the tweets? i was hoping they would give some indication like that but hadn't seen any,hold,hold,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-05-15T21:08:20.214000+00:00,"The left is making solid progress towards being straightforwardly anti-AI, but for this market to resolve YES the right ",flip,flip,True +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-26T00:47:12.238000+00:00,"Might have been a staffer that received my email today, it was pretty convincing tbh.",flip,flip,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-30T12:47:05.638000+00:00,"and also here, the shop sign on the left is hidden when the woman walks past and then reappears looking the same.",hold,flip,False +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-04-05T10:53:47.670000+00:00,"I’m betting yes, but in an effort to consider and share all relevant evidence: I was surprised that AI worry is evenly s",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T15:14:07.798000+00:00,"It doesn't come back to you, but you can donate it to charity!",hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:00:28.528000+00:00,"https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-in/ +This is from June - great article on hypermind forecasts fo",flip,flip,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..578dd429abc568528514de23cdd5466c5bc16085 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,142 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-01T03:29:08.356000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"What you say is all fair but I think there is a lot of fuzziness around when an LLM was ""made"". It's a very long pipelin",hold,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T09:12:34.498000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I do not think you understood my position. I see the update, and i did not ignore it. +It just makes it cleareER, that t",hold,hold,True,True,1009.6735,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T17:28:49.884000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Arbitrage or I'm missing something?,flip,decrease,False,True,46.6964,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-15T22:29:01.509000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I didn’t test in depth but 4o got this first try,increase,increase,True,True,450.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T08:00:44.330000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"I managed to win that game only losing one pawn. (It did promote to a queen right before dying, so the lost pieces bar s",increase,hold,False,True,722.902,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-28T16:11:19.336000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,it's not surprising that it wouldn't make much noise over half of a year though. usually second iterations of google pro,increase,increase,True,True,406889.5296,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T04:49:37.008000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,(i could of course be misunderstanding something),decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-11-04T02:56:48.284000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"“Never underestimate the stupidity of the average or the brilliance of the extraordinary.” + - someone famous probably ",increase,increase,True,True,774.6716,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-05-15T21:08:20.214000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"The left is making solid progress towards being straightforwardly anti-AI, but for this market to resolve YES the right ",flip,decrease,False,True,4.2746,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-30T12:47:05.638000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"and also here, the shop sign on the left is hidden when the woman walks past and then reappears looking the same.",hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2023-12-30T06:51:29.998000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Cool. FWIW it seems to be able to draw +the + Pentagon most of the time.",hold,increase,False,True,15.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-29T00:20:35.349000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,I think nukes have a left/right split. I agree that it's uncommon.,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:33:48.072000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"oh yeah but that's just geometry, right? It's still really cool tho! +AlphaGeometry2 solves 42 out of 50 of all 2000-202",flip,decrease,False,True,7.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T16:15:29.879000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,aren't this and all the balenciaga meme videos made with a lot of human assistance,flip,decrease,False,True,2969.6911,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T16:38:56.789000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,And it seemed the only way to then get back to the main menu was to press the concede button...,decrease,decrease,True,True,44.1193,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T18:02:53.949000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Nice! I did think that perhaps without explicit instructions to make mobile ui nice it might've been a bit borked. Also ,decrease,hold,False,True,23.207,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-21T15:42:34.170000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,The criteria is for a video version of Dali. The only other quality criteria is that there be object permanence. This vi,hold,increase,False,True,640.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:30:48.434000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"agreed, this is one of the most mispriced markets on the site",increase,increase,True,True,48.8005,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-03T12:31:45.094000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I asked GPT-3 geometry problem. It didn't understand anything,flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:15:43.851000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Like I said, Paul said one thing and Eliezer said a different thing. See the second quote in the question +EDIT +:  I s",flip,decrease,False,True,6641.8654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:31:25.857000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"For what it's worth, it wasn't just a single statement. She +went on KQED + yesterday and criticized the bill more.",increase,increase,True,True,33531.3527,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-29T10:27:24.858000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"GEN2 is clearly doing amazing things. I mean, just look at this footage! +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMqEG32UslU",increase,flip,False,True,237.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-19T15:22:59.985000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Created a market for 3D objects inspired by this one.,decrease,hold,False,True,35.4885,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-08T23:09:41.169000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"DeepMind launches AlphaCode. Time to DAMPU. +https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1158",flip,flip,True,True,33.9771,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-17T18:14:20.914000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I think solving geo problems isn't much of an update about IMO difficulty, because geo was already widely believed to be",decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T16:28:24.182000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"When playing now vs the AI, I am seeing pieces have their identity revealed as soon as they move. (e.g. a piece moves fo",increase,decrease,False,True,122.902,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:34:22.179000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I'm interested in to what extent geometry problems were a bottleneck to IMO gold performance,flip,decrease,False,True,7.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-06-25T16:03:50.361000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Now that shortable multi-choice is out: A big market for all the possible years this could happen.,increase,hold,False,True,2953.4035,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T14:19:42.166000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Many will disagree about you on this. And would talk about ""fuzzy memorization"" and so on",hold,decrease,False,True,2994.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T22:59:27.340000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I'm not any kind of researcher but I can see when a market is ambiguously defined and the creator has bought shares.,flip,decrease,False,True,658.0791,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-22T20:40:07.819000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"The clusters I'm seeing emerge are something like: +Far left dislikes AI because of issues like bias +Moderate left (inc",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-21T17:40:09.700000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The solutions are here +https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/gemini/IMO_2025.pdf + They're written in cleaner ",hold,increase,False,True,235199.3642,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T21:20:18.613000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"I think there's an interesting point here about how as people get used to AI coding tools, their productivity with them ",decrease,hold,False,True,39.6601,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-10T16:26:39.899000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"It was already priced in, probably.",increase,hold,False,True,2019.7581,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:28:54.771000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"If we look at the original tweet, the person who Tweeted it gave some more context: +Does it fool the eye? +and +The kin",flip,decrease,False,True,22.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:35:00.826000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,the author said he pulled everything together with an editor.,increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:32:31.486000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As I've pointed out before, the criteria in Paul's statement are about a model before the IMO but the criteria in Elieze",flip,increase,False,True,6641.8654,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T21:12:00.764000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I am betting on you not being proud of how many braincells you lose arguing with it.,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:48:18.808000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Based on everything that's been said, I definitely was not expecting current right-wing complaints about censorship in C",decrease,decrease,True,True,298.3319,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-30T22:24:17.459000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"(in the next year, specifically)",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-19T17:27:33.390000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Almost Everytime these long term markes are pessimistic the opposite event is true. A few days ago it was 29%,increase,increase,True,True,273.142,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-22T02:17:08.715000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"An AI in Math Olympiad? +Seems quite absurd, don't you think? +But with each passing day, +It's closer than you'd think.",hold,increase,False,True,5.6373,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-04-07T01:37:37.676000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,is it possible for it to be a culture war without being left/right? or does that just not happen,decrease,decrease,True,True,129.6034,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:45:34.613000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"idk why these edge cases aren't mentioned in the citizens guide, if true",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T18:20:51.352000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,what do you think about the models shared in the comments?,flip,hold,False,True,585.5444,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:38:47.645000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,">The training loop was also applied during the contest, reinforcing proofs of self-generated variations of the contest p",hold,decrease,False,True,1120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T15:03:09.264000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,then why are you betting 500 on YES?,increase,decrease,False,True,710.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T03:51:32.603000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,New limit orders up. 10K at 40%,increase,increase,True,True,39283.6995,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-30T22:23:39.731000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Take a look at the rate of progress on math contest problems +https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-i",flip,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-27T13:48:24.898000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I still think this is considerably overpriced, even at 32%. For this to resolve yes, there doesn't just need to be cultu",hold,increase,False,True,1170.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T03:36:52.399000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Can we get some more well defined resolution criteria here? Maybe something to make it clear that this is about competit,increase,decrease,False,True,599.5469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:36:48.378000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Here's a thought though -- let's say ChatGPT/OpenAI responds by alleviating immediate concerns by just ""leveling"" the me",decrease,increase,False,True,5025.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:12:56.402000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Advent of Code is not exactly competitive programming.,increase,hold,False,True,136.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:26:55.441000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Correct me if I'm wrong, but ""The Governor has 12 days to sign, approve without signing, or veto a bill."" +https://www.",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-17T17:39:23.397000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Introducing AlphaGeometry: an AI system that solves Olympiad geometry problems at a level approaching a human gold-medal,flip,increase,False,True,1019.242,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-07-06T19:46:00.713000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"A fuller treatment from the Ethics side, maintaining there is no 'schism'. +Rather, there are two separate threads — on",hold,increase,False,True,2.9773,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T08:30:31.901000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Tried it on mobile and not going to lie it felt like a buggy mess. One of my rows and columns was cutoff and I couldn't ,flip,increase,False,True,23.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:25:22.323000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Idk, good question! But I know that if I’m wrong a bunch of these markets can be fixed, so someone in the know should do",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T16:30:12.703000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,the AI player is utter trash right now. Suspect it's still some variation on random movement.,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:17:44.972000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,So crappy they immediately ghosted their own Twitter account:,decrease,increase,False,True,229.4113,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:37:35.419000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,if you wanna lose more mana I added some limit orders (or if you disagree or wanna hedge or whatever else),decrease,decrease,True,True,14920.6146,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T18:09:52.012000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Yeah, this market is set up on the condition that one side is pro and the other is anti. Right now, it appears that both",decrease,decrease,True,True,39.7178,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:43:25.781000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That's true, but I think Austin (understandably) misread what Eliezer's position was (or was going off of the initial po",flip,hold,False,True,6641.8654,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T04:06:56.235000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Seriously, LLMs arent yet at +average + human level on most benchmarks. Forgot about being better than the best-of-the-",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-17T17:53:01.206000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As someone who has been holding NO since September, I don't know if I understand what changed for people who were holdin",decrease,decrease,True,True,6178.7581,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T01:58:21.256000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The new algo did well enough for a silver medal, not a gold. So people are giving 67% to the rest of the gap being close",flip,decrease,False,True,12498.59,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-17T02:40:42.093000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"What's FTL? Not ""faster than light"", right?",increase,hold,False,True,135.9431,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T04:24:43.510000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,is THAT what the market is positing? So an algorithm that can beat a top human at even a single coding challenge would b,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-04-23T21:33:07.478000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,you should never rely on close date in general though! The rules are what is written in the description.,hold,hold,True,True,1452.2973,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-16T03:31:47.637000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Surprisingly plausible, and could work just as well if DeSantis makes a statement about AI safety. (Pundits: ""Desantis w",hold,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-27T11:23:45.976000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Base rates according to Perplexity: +How frequently (percentage-wise) has governor Gavin Newsom veto'd a bill? +Governor",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-18T12:30:58.575000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,@Sjilver I'd rather not go into the details too much; if you're capable of contributing to the project you can find the ,decrease,increase,False,True,51.7512,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-22T02:44:30.200000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"A machine that creates art, +With a single click to start, +But can it make videos that sing? +Only time will tell, ding",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T17:03:18.569000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I feel kind of bad for posting this... + I feel like we in a way, by participating in this market are actually acceller",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:20:37.485000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"These are not only NOT “arbitrary videos” they aren’t even videos at all. +They turn a prompt into an image, then do sl",decrease,increase,False,True,229.4113,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-22T06:44:06.477000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"bit no-true-scotsman of a digression here perhaps, but I at least appreciate your apparent personal dedication to not be",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:13:45.468000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"That's a good point, going by the original resolution criteria. I am updating to say that I'm much more confident things",decrease,decrease,True,True,5025.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T15:11:20.977000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Apologies, I read that wrong XD",increase,decrease,False,True,710.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-15T09:39:39.514000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"That's probably workable, so long as your example prompt remains about the most difficult one to understand. +Probably t",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:25:13.150000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Since you are being a good steward and advocating for the NO side, I want to be a good steward and advocate for the YES ",flip,decrease,False,True,22.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-03T15:52:18.984000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Bold of you to assume its gender,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-26T00:47:12.238000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Might have been a staffer that received my email today, it was pretty convincing tbh.",flip,decrease,False,True,1250.3735,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T04:49:34.340000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,yeah that's really good. I would say for certain stylistic cartoons it already qualifies. Wherther the odd janky hands a,flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T14:49:21.264000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Is it the model Gemini currently uses? Didn't work through Gemini for me.,flip,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-12T14:41:22.142000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Not arguing something that can win every CodeForces can just be given a 'do a pentest on this' or 'write a new javascrip,hold,hold,True,True,195.9168,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:17:39.136000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"(Edit: I don't stand by anything i said more than 1 picosecond ago anymore so maybe this is wrong, see jack's reply) + y",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:24:59.073000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Competitive sprinting is harder than walking my toddler because I am not fast enough to be a competitive sprinter. On th,flip,hold,False,True,100.2312,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T15:51:34.567000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Worth noting that it used up to three days on 3 of 4 solutions. +> In the official competition, students submit answers ",hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-20T21:37:30.744000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,My understanding is that this market depends on whether Paul/Eliezer agree that the feat of IMO Gold was accomplished. I,hold,hold,True,True,113818.8317,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T13:26:37.269000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Here is a pretty convincing demo +https://mobile.twitter.com/hardmaru/status/1575476224880934913",increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:18:07.920000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,This is why I think you shouldn't put too much import on markets in how random people (even famous ones) resolve a bet. ,flip,decrease,False,True,6641.8654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-29T08:53:10.212000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Emad recently said (Raoul Pal video) that StabilityAI text-to-video will be likely released in May.,hold,flip,False,True,183.5773,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T12:45:44.182000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"dang it, I was going to make this the best chess variant site ever by blowing $30000 into it.",hold,decrease,False,True,14341.7931,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-01T18:32:02.015000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Poll: 7 in 10 Californians Support SB1047, Will Blame Governor Newsom for AI-Enabled Catastrophe if He Vetoes - AI Polic",hold,decrease,False,True,1101.5115,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-01T20:09:25.031000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Ah, but those Danny DeVito videos demonstrate the opposite! Look at those waves! Look at those watermelons! +https://ww",hold,flip,False,True,2.3493,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T16:17:41.788000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Ive heard geom is easy compared to eg combinatorics, which is the real beast that ais couldnt even come close to solving",decrease,decrease,True,True,588073.3369,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T21:47:45.351000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also, everyone saying ""it's nuts that people believe it's possible"": you still don't understand deep learning properly. ",hold,increase,False,True,125.6683,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:00:28.528000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-in/ +This is from June - great article on hypermind forecasts fo",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T21:46:38.502000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"deepmind, the most likely group to do this, seems to be giving signs they intend to slow down. This is a black swan for ",decrease,decrease,True,True,181.7512,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:00:41.698000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047 +> Enrolled  September 03, 2024 +> ",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..dc6b51e1cc0936510b18f69f81900f25f224e4b4 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,131 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T04:04:06.745000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,found it but where were people talking about this? cant find it on twitter,hold,decrease,False,True,1412.7248,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T21:21:00.678000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I believe that's the case, the close date is also Jan 1, 2026. Some people weirdly mean ""by X"" as ""up to X"".",decrease,decrease,True,True,840.6255,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-05T16:03:35.622000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"None of the sample videos show object permanence. None of them definitively show lack of object permanence either, but g",decrease,decrease,True,True,5151.852,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T02:18:15.687000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,ChatGPT can't even write code to draw a cat using python on a 2D plane. That's because it's incapable of visualizing stu,increase,increase,True,True,155.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T02:11:23.504000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,AI will not beat humans. It's like asking ChatGPT to draw Monalisa using ASCII art or expecting the ability to be a ches,increase,increase,True,True,120.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T01:55:29.923000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,The queen is dead! Long live the Quing!,increase,hold,False,True,322.902,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-05-15T21:08:20.214000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"The left is making solid progress towards being straightforwardly anti-AI, but for this market to resolve YES the right ",flip,decrease,False,True,4.2746,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:31:52.253000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,ever tried locking an intern in the server closet with a kilo of coke? Results seem about the same.,hold,increase,False,True,12100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T04:49:34.340000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,yeah that's really good. I would say for certain stylistic cartoons it already qualifies. Wherther the odd janky hands a,flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-30T22:23:39.731000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Take a look at the rate of progress on math contest problems +https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-i",flip,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T19:00:09.815000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Betting yes on this market yesterday is a winning strategy :),flip,increase,False,True,8250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T15:03:09.264000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,then why are you betting 500 on YES?,increase,decrease,False,True,710.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:00:41.698000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047 +> Enrolled  September 03, 2024 +> ",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-17T02:40:42.093000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"What's FTL? Not ""faster than light"", right?",increase,hold,False,True,135.9431,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T21:47:45.351000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also, everyone saying ""it's nuts that people believe it's possible"": you still don't understand deep learning properly. ",hold,increase,False,True,125.6683,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:34:22.179000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I'm interested in to what extent geometry problems were a bottleneck to IMO gold performance,flip,decrease,False,True,7.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-12-08T20:03:48.830000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I think not: it says ""an AI built before the IMO"". This is because it would be difficult to know whether an AI in 2025 w",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T19:12:48.259000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"You underestimate the muted yet extremist enthusiasm of the code golf gallery. Imagine a 100,000 competitors on TopCoder",hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:15:43.851000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Like I said, Paul said one thing and Eliezer said a different thing. See the second quote in the question +EDIT +:  I s",flip,decrease,False,True,6641.8654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T03:51:32.603000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,New limit orders up. 10K at 40%,increase,increase,True,True,39283.6995,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T08:30:31.901000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Tried it on mobile and not going to lie it felt like a buggy mess. One of my rows and columns was cutoff and I couldn't ,decrease,increase,False,True,23.207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T19:13:23.386000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Teachers do tend to hate the technologification of education because it adds administrative burdens and tons of BS (at l,hold,hold,True,True,1223.7538,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-21T02:20:23.850000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"If both sides are anti-AI (or less likely, both are pro-AI), will the market resolve YES or NO?",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-17T21:54:45.282000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"A hypothetical AI which was trained only on data from before IMO 2025, was built before the IMO, and got gold on IMO 202",increase,decrease,False,True,1850.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:20:37.485000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"These are not only NOT “arbitrary videos” they aren’t even videos at all. +They turn a prompt into an image, then do sl",decrease,increase,False,True,229.4113,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-17T17:39:23.397000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Introducing AlphaGeometry: an AI system that solves Olympiad geometry problems at a level approaching a human gold-medal,flip,increase,False,True,1019.242,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:04:53.632000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.03544 +Alphageom 2 solved 84% of the International Math Olympiad (IMO) problems from 2000-24 ",increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-01T21:14:33.542000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"If you are interested in betting about this, the market doesn't seem to think this is likely",hold,hold,True,True,2656.3518,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T22:59:27.340000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I'm not any kind of researcher but I can see when a market is ambiguously defined and the creator has bought shares.,flip,decrease,False,True,658.0791,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:26:02.096000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,How is this close? The actual video clips used by the human editor are essentially just still photos with slight angle c,decrease,increase,False,True,544.052,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:33:48.072000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"oh yeah but that's just geometry, right? It's still really cool tho! +AlphaGeometry2 solves 42 out of 50 of all 2000-202",flip,decrease,False,True,7.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:12:56.402000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Advent of Code is not exactly competitive programming.,increase,hold,False,True,136.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-04-23T10:22:11.781000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Large limit at 25 for anyone who wants to buy it down,hold,increase,False,True,19189.3117,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T03:36:52.399000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Can we get some more well defined resolution criteria here? Maybe something to make it clear that this is about competit,increase,decrease,False,True,599.5469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-04-09T13:55:04.692000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"The Atlantic takes note of the (for now) peculiarly nonpartisan nature of the issue: +https://www.theatlantic.com/techn",hold,hold,True,True,55.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-08T23:09:41.169000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"DeepMind launches AlphaCode. Time to DAMPU. +https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1158",flip,flip,True,True,33.9771,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:27:33.543000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I'm particularly interested in what you think about video length and object permanence in these examples. From your crit,decrease,decrease,True,True,544.052,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:36:48.378000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Here's a thought though -- let's say ChatGPT/OpenAI responds by alleviating immediate concerns by just ""leveling"" the me",decrease,increase,False,True,5025.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-02-17T05:42:51.262000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"More formally, my argument is just ""search space is too large, almost as large as such search spaces go"". +And while in",increase,increase,True,True,582.8198,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T01:58:21.256000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The new algo did well enough for a silver medal, not a gold. So people are giving 67% to the rest of the gap being close",flip,decrease,False,True,12498.59,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-12T23:33:04.561000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"3. Microchips were already implanted via the COVID vaccine which was developed by Bill Gates, 5G used to track everyone,",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-10-03T03:22:35.824000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"This is why I was pushing for a pre-committed, specific test for object permanency. We're about to get bogged down into ",increase,decrease,False,True,310.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:25:13.150000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Since you are being a good steward and advocating for the NO side, I want to be a good steward and advocate for the YES ",flip,decrease,False,True,22.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-26T23:33:41.764000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I am fairly sure that the left is more against AI than the right, at least in my circles. And they seem to be using lang",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T16:30:12.703000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,the AI player is utter trash right now. Suspect it's still some variation on random movement.,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T14:49:21.264000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Is it the model Gemini currently uses? Didn't work through Gemini for me.,flip,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-17T03:13:50.620000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"It seems like if FTL was even possible within the laws of physics, the Fermi paradox is vastly more paradoxical",hold,hold,True,True,249.2248,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-02-24T22:34:57.418000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"ChatGPT can handle +Show me the SVG image source for a black pentagon on a white background + most(?) of the time. Sadl",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T22:37:45.878000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"So, the remaining 30%-ish is in how Paul and Eliezer rule the bet on the speed of the solve, and on the ability to solve",decrease,hold,False,True,2500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T18:20:51.352000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,what do you think about the models shared in the comments?,flip,hold,False,True,585.5444,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T17:03:24.786000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,for some definition of before…,flip,decrease,False,True,5250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T17:28:49.884000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Arbitrage or I'm missing something?,flip,decrease,False,True,46.6964,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:00:28.528000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-in/ +This is from June - great article on hypermind forecasts fo",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-28T16:11:19.336000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,it's not surprising that it wouldn't make much noise over half of a year though. usually second iterations of google pro,increase,increase,True,True,406889.5296,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-26T00:47:12.238000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Might have been a staffer that received my email today, it was pretty convincing tbh.",flip,decrease,False,True,1250.3735,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-23T21:17:05.827000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"nice description of ""probability"", ChatGPT",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:43:25.781000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That's true, but I think Austin (understandably) misread what Eliezer's position was (or was going off of the initial po",flip,hold,False,True,6641.8654,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-11T23:22:29.246000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"It cannot do combinatorics, and last year it arguably got lucky with the functional equation at #6. Can it do all kinds",decrease,decrease,True,True,4818.6632,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-11-04T02:56:48.284000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"“Never underestimate the stupidity of the average or the brilliance of the extraordinary.” + - someone famous probably ",increase,increase,True,True,774.6716,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2025-01-02T20:09:46.784000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,seems like aurora does not understand the '5-gon' and really wants it to be 3d,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T04:24:43.510000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,is THAT what the market is positing? So an algorithm that can beat a top human at even a single coding challenge would b,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-16T15:20:33.116000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Can someone please prompt Claude code to make a ""hairy chest website"" with no additional clarifications and upload the r",hold,decrease,False,True,47.1932,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-20T20:26:49.719000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,At 0:27 you can see that it fails at object permanence,decrease,increase,False,True,4552.9787,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-15T09:39:39.514000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"That's probably workable, so long as your example prompt remains about the most difficult one to understand. +Probably t",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:21:52.903000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"confirmation that polymarket != this one? I don’t have confirmation. It’s my reading of +This resolves NO if SB 1047 doe",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T04:06:56.235000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Seriously, LLMs arent yet at +average + human level on most benchmarks. Forgot about being better than the best-of-the-",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-27T15:06:21.013000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"His track record signing unions approved bills appears to be mixed +2024: +https://calaborfed.org/issues/2024-legislat",increase,hold,False,True,3158.5988,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T00:01:26.843000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Right, had not even considered that, though that seems unlikely to me.",decrease,hold,False,True,2500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:17:44.972000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,So crappy they immediately ghosted their own Twitter account:,decrease,increase,False,True,229.4113,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-17T07:57:19.179000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,note that you did specifically exclude an example below where ChatGPT generated an SVG. I don't know if that example inv,hold,decrease,False,True,3272.0655,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-21T02:32:20.243000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"No, they each have to pick a side.",hold,flip,False,True,25.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T13:31:22.206000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I'm aware of GPT-4 Codeforces stats. That's why I'd like this question to be made more rigorous before I invest more man,increase,decrease,False,True,696.5469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T16:37:23.020000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,This is so broken 😅 I just won by timeout against the AI without any moves being made,decrease,decrease,True,True,44.1193,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-10T20:26:05.152000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"with the CA deficits looming it would be an economic death knell to pass this, it may get bipartisan support but as the ",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-02-12T18:16:29.410000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Great market. Wiener is an effective legislator, I wouldn’t count him out.",hold,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-02T21:03:29.125000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"explains why I couldn't find it, thanks for the link",decrease,hold,False,True,223.8005,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-02T17:19:27.012000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,I don't think that's naive? I'd guess that popular support strongly correlates with the likelihood of a bill getting pa,hold,hold,True,True,8249.926,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-16T04:08:43.359000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Are we really going to spam this all through the comments? The stable diffusion imagery is occasionally amusing but this,increase,hold,False,True,110.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-30T07:41:15.596000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I think conservative-coded, for both questions. (And the win, of course, happened by swaying some of the enemies to thei",hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-19T19:53:49.752000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Greg Brockman: ""Model operated in natural language (i.e. outputs natural language proofs) under the same rules as humans",decrease,increase,False,True,4538.0363,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T21:46:38.502000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"deepmind, the most likely group to do this, seems to be giving signs they intend to slow down. This is a black swan for ",decrease,decrease,True,True,181.7512,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T02:49:56.878000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"The promotion may have been a red herring. In another game, the king also turned into a queen in a totally different sce",hold,decrease,False,True,3309.8468,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T12:10:21.126000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,they are using ais to code their services /j,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-28T21:20:53.258000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Interesting. +Gavin Newsom is vetoing 1 of every 6 bills. Here’s why +https://calmatters.org/politics/capitol/2024/09/n",increase,decrease,False,True,3931.6651,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:32:31.486000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As I've pointed out before, the criteria in Paul's statement are about a model before the IMO but the criteria in Elieze",flip,increase,False,True,6641.8654,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-19T15:22:59.985000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Created a market for 3D objects inspired by this one.,decrease,hold,False,True,35.4885,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-30T22:24:17.459000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"(in the next year, specifically)",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:28:54.771000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"If we look at the original tweet, the person who Tweeted it gave some more context: +Does it fool the eye? +and +The kin",flip,decrease,False,True,22.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:18:07.920000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,This is why I think you shouldn't put too much import on markets in how random people (even famous ones) resolve a bet. ,flip,decrease,False,True,6641.8654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-22T13:08:16.526000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"LLM-based approach seems very unlikely, I agree. +My YES bet is mostly hinging on alphazero approaches to mathematics/fo",hold,hold,True,True,1363.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-01T03:29:08.356000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"What you say is all fair but I think there is a lot of fuzziness around when an LLM was ""made"". It's a very long pipelin",hold,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-04T02:12:45.557000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Thank you for clarifying. This makes sense.,decrease,hold,False,True,150402.9798,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-31T04:43:37.209000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Starting to fear that we're going to polarize into an anti-AI right and a pro-AI left. I give it a 30% chance.,hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:18:09.279000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Doing it as fast as possible is competitive, right? +But yeah, doing easy extremely things fast is something computers h",hold,hold,True,True,103.4152,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-03T12:31:45.094000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I asked GPT-3 geometry problem. It didn't understand anything,flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-11T23:29:49.185000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I mean o3 completely sucks at olympiads - see +https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat#e41l",decrease,decrease,True,True,4818.6632,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T16:38:56.789000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,And it seemed the only way to then get back to the main menu was to press the concede button...,decrease,decrease,True,True,44.1193,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T16:15:29.879000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,aren't this and all the balenciaga meme videos made with a lot of human assistance,flip,decrease,False,True,2969.6911,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-18T16:25:49.673000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Why there is so much progress this year (and it is just the beginning): +https://benjamintodd.substack.com/p/teaching-a",hold,increase,False,True,66521.1823,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T14:09:12.275000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I have GitHub copilot for $10 a month and it has basically unlimited use of all but the best models.,decrease,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..744d2f41fa6f72f164222ee99d0fa72e4818d94a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,135 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T17:59:48.762000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"this is actually more evidence that this is not partisan at this point: both the left and the right are skeptical of ai,",hold,increase,False,True,32.9585,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-02T21:03:29.125000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"explains why I couldn't find it, thanks for the link",decrease,hold,False,True,223.8005,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T07:24:33.231000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Hedge??? I will just use it to leverage...,decrease,decrease,True,True,821.7534,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T16:36:31.720000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I am getting increasingly convinced that the culture war is 100% coming for A.I. right now, specifically from the right.",increase,increase,True,True,13.0676,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T14:19:54.409000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I've competed in programming contests and given the tasks I've seen there I think they would be way easier for AI than r,increase,increase,True,True,250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T20:54:24.712000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Agreed 100%. If the AI had managed to beat the humans in all rounds of the AOC then I'd definitely feel that this market,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-26T00:47:12.238000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Might have been a staffer that received my email today, it was pretty convincing tbh.",flip,decrease,False,True,1250.3735,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T21:05:42.471000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Does the website count as incomplete if I run into any violation of chess rules on web/mobile site? +Example violations:",hold,decrease,False,True,14341.7931,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:43:38.182000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Sorry I'm confused what are you talking about?,flip,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T17:28:49.884000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Arbitrage or I'm missing something?,flip,decrease,False,True,46.6964,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:00:28.528000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-in/ +This is from June - great article on hypermind forecasts fo",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-28T16:11:19.336000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,it's not surprising that it wouldn't make much noise over half of a year though. usually second iterations of google pro,increase,increase,True,True,406889.5296,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-15T08:37:34.720000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"I'm definitely not dismissing the possibility and I'm sure progress will be made over AlphaCode v1. All else equal, it s",decrease,decrease,True,True,136.653,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T19:55:02.463000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The title says +any + IMO, so the AI would do all the past papers, and if it got gold on any of them the market would r",increase,hold,False,True,177.3784,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-01T01:38:22.768000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"problem says ""AI made before the IMO"" which I think precludes the its-in-the-training-data condition",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T18:20:51.352000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,what do you think about the models shared in the comments?,flip,hold,False,True,585.5444,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-02T17:27:03.228000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,they data shows that popular support has 0 correlation with likelihood of passing,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T00:31:18.052000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"I currently have the first most YES stock on this market, and I agree that it should not be resolved based on ""win in on",hold,hold,True,True,412.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:41:12.523000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I think it's so awesome to have this market where people are posting new cyborg-generated videos using AI tools...it's a,flip,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-10T20:26:05.152000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"with the CA deficits looming it would be an economic death knell to pass this, it may get bipartisan support but as the ",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T14:11:32.894000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,oh I didn’t realize yours was ready already!?,decrease,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T16:54:18.468000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,idk what that is but I believe in you,hold,hold,True,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-31T05:29:54.368000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Democrats are already freaking out about AI, nearly every opinion article in the liberal media has a neutral-to-negative",increase,increase,True,True,132.9585,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:30:48.434000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"agreed, this is one of the most mispriced markets on the site",increase,increase,True,True,48.8005,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T16:17:41.788000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Ive heard geom is easy compared to eg combinatorics, which is the real beast that ais couldnt even come close to solving",decrease,decrease,True,True,588073.3369,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T19:00:09.815000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Betting yes on this market yesterday is a winning strategy :),flip,increase,False,True,8250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-02-16T07:27:11.456000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"I believe it probably implies AGI. Unless the creteria will be treated weakly such as ""able to score top 1 on a very eas",increase,decrease,False,True,582.8198,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-21T01:56:22.534000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Length isn't part of the stated resolution criteria, is it?",hold,decrease,False,True,173.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:28:54.771000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"If we look at the original tweet, the person who Tweeted it gave some more context: +Does it fool the eye? +and +The kin",flip,decrease,False,True,22.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:36:48.378000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Here's a thought though -- let's say ChatGPT/OpenAI responds by alleviating immediate concerns by just ""leveling"" the me",decrease,increase,False,True,5025.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-05-15T17:39:37.529000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Some of the questions they are planning on asking: +""Mr. Altman, one of my VCR tapes has some of the tape stringing out ",flip,increase,False,True,43.0676,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T03:36:52.399000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Can we get some more well defined resolution criteria here? Maybe something to make it clear that this is about competit,increase,decrease,False,True,599.5469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-21T05:18:29.254000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Some more examples. The clips seem long enough +https://twitter.com/yining_shi/status/1637840817963278337?s=46&t=15dYms",hold,increase,False,True,899.4274,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T22:31:21.437000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I've put some NO limit orders up if anyone is interested.,increase,increase,True,True,5372.0655,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-19T12:18:54.643000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,could you share the tweets? i was hoping they would give some indication like that but hadn't seen any,hold,decrease,False,True,639659.6967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T16:15:29.879000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,aren't this and all the balenciaga meme videos made with a lot of human assistance,flip,decrease,False,True,2969.6911,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-18T12:30:58.575000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,@Sjilver I'd rather not go into the details too much; if you're capable of contributing to the project you can find the ,decrease,increase,False,True,51.7512,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:18:59.199000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Yes, but the quote I mentioned is said directly after, does not belong to Paul or Eliezer, but to the author of the ques",decrease,flip,False,True,56051.7439,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T17:25:58.145000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"From experience, get better results by talking to it like a programmer to another programme, being very specific about w",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:25:13.150000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Since you are being a good steward and advocating for the NO side, I want to be a good steward and advocate for the YES ",flip,decrease,False,True,22.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-15T22:29:01.509000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I didn’t test in depth but 4o got this first try,increase,increase,True,True,450.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-03T04:20:20.404000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Another market for arbitrage/diversification,increase,hold,False,True,626.8439,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:15:43.851000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Like I said, Paul said one thing and Eliezer said a different thing. See the second quote in the question +EDIT +:  I s",flip,decrease,False,True,6641.8654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T15:27:53.250000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I'll be honest I don't really understand this argument. It seems like you're conflating a lot of things here. Programmin,hold,hold,True,True,796.5469,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-11T01:13:20.129000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"And not just some people. A +lot + of people are using GPT-3 and text-to-image technologies. The speed of takeup and th",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T21:01:45.166000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Good point and thanks for that. Open AI says on their website that Dall-E 2 had 1000 signups per week in May 2022 so DAL,flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-10T11:12:35.546000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also, competitive programming is much easier than the full suite of judgement skills a programmer needs. humans who over",hold,decrease,False,True,91.7512,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-12-08T18:41:23.880000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I believe so - from the linked lesswrong post, the criteria was ""For the 2022, 2023, 2024, or 2025 IMO an AI built befor",increase,hold,False,True,185.595,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-10T21:27:53.515000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,People are using it. Seems like it makes it less likely for any side to become broadly anti AI.,decrease,increase,False,True,291.9718,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T04:43:19.247000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Strong disagree. It's unlikely anyone will actually run AI on all of these; why would they? DeepMind was satisfies with ,flip,decrease,False,True,210.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:33:48.072000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"oh yeah but that's just geometry, right? It's still really cool tho! +AlphaGeometry2 solves 42 out of 50 of all 2000-202",flip,decrease,False,True,7.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:34:22.179000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I'm interested in to what extent geometry problems were a bottleneck to IMO gold performance,flip,decrease,False,True,7.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T04:49:34.340000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,yeah that's really good. I would say for certain stylistic cartoons it already qualifies. Wherther the odd janky hands a,flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T13:45:07.138000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I wish I could get 100x leverage for this market.,increase,increase,True,True,175.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-08T23:09:41.169000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"DeepMind launches AlphaCode. Time to DAMPU. +https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1158",flip,flip,True,True,33.9771,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-04-05T10:53:47.670000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I’m betting yes, but in an effort to consider and share all relevant evidence: I was surprised that AI worry is evenly s",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:43:25.781000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That's true, but I think Austin (understandably) misread what Eliezer's position was (or was going off of the initial po",flip,hold,False,True,6641.8654,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:35:07.440000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"But we have this quote in the question: +""So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI +made before the IMO +",decrease,hold,False,True,56051.7439,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-05T10:46:05.964000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"From this last bit “…it can correctly draw a chair in many different contexts and styles, even if it misunderstands rela",increase,decrease,False,True,505.1072,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-12-03T04:41:54.384000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Sure but is it in any way explicitly left vs right coded with pro and anti forces lined up on either side?,hold,decrease,False,True,1223.7538,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:17:44.972000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,So crappy they immediately ghosted their own Twitter account:,decrease,increase,False,True,229.4113,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-30T12:47:05.638000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"and also here, the shop sign on the left is hidden when the woman walks past and then reappears looking the same.",hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T18:31:19.042000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,your modern neural models are somebody in Bangladesh pretending to be a computer. Moores law doesn't exist. An ibm1620 h,decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T20:09:00.080000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I agree that seems to satisfy the criteria. The results are ornate but it’s consistently giving me either a pentagon for,increase,increase,True,True,275.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-17T08:03:07.388000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Basically Pelosi argues that Godmother of AI said that the bill could stifle innovation +https://pelosi.house.gov/news/",decrease,flip,False,True,691.4924,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:25:52.642000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"How much conscious attention do you think Pelosi gave to this or will give if Newsom treats differently? +My sense is """,decrease,decrease,True,True,750.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T05:21:04.055000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Played a game against the AI and was having a lot of fun until it just broke with the error: +Move error: Not in a game ",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:03:08.734000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Strongly agree. We'll let this ride out a news cycle or two and see how it shakes out. Even if it was just a temporary b,decrease,increase,False,True,5025.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-11T23:29:49.185000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I mean o3 completely sucks at olympiads - see +https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat#e41l",decrease,decrease,True,True,4818.6632,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-18T01:34:27.578000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Vice is saying the real issue is AI is biased in ways that harm minorities, so this doesn't really support a story where",hold,hold,True,True,298.3319,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-17T03:56:40.767000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Aside from the new removal of the loan structure decreasing the incentive for long-term bets, I’d absolutely bet down a",hold,decrease,False,True,2976.3738,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-23T00:03:48.079000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"If this hasn't happened at closing time (end of 2023), does that mean the market resolves NO?",increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:27:33.543000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I'm particularly interested in what you think about video length and object permanence in these examples. From your crit,decrease,decrease,True,True,544.052,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T00:37:57.526000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Well, actually, proof hammers are progressing fast +https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.04488.pdf",increase,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T17:45:30.210000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Here's a couple different ways that I did it. In some chats, ChatGPT says that god is unequivocally real, while in other",hold,hold,True,True,139.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T16:08:39.394000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,My point is the question is meaningless and a catch 22. If a computer was able to read directions it would be a full AI ,decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T18:06:08.110000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,people still don't get how ai progress moves. code generation will be starkly superintelligent by the end of 2023.,hold,increase,False,True,51.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-09-28T18:49:15.680000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://manifold.markets/jack/will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the-fc04e26738c6?r=MmViNw +Comparing these markets, math is",increase,flip,False,True,55.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-21T17:09:21.627000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"""Formal to formal"" means: +the AI receives a +formal + representation of the problem (in the +Lean Theorem Prover +), ",hold,hold,True,True,4267.6949,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-18T00:24:26.478000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,Does not seem very clearly NO. And theres always the possibility for pocket signature,decrease,decrease,True,True,55.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:25:22.323000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Idk, good question! But I know that if I’m wrong a bunch of these markets can be fixed, so someone in the know should do",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T20:42:27.932000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,what was the gpt level 20 months ago?,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-11-20T23:51:31.811000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"The description requires a binary situation, so given your statements it seems to me you should be betting NO. Whatever,",increase,increase,True,True,700.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T01:48:36.636000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"I made a few moves and marked an opponent's piece as a king. Then I opened another piece's selectable options, and the g",increase,decrease,False,True,222.902,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-05-15T21:08:20.214000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"The left is making solid progress towards being straightforwardly anti-AI, but for this market to resolve YES the right ",flip,decrease,False,True,4.2746,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:00:41.698000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047 +> Enrolled  September 03, 2024 +> ",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T01:58:21.256000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The new algo did well enough for a silver medal, not a gold. So people are giving 67% to the rest of the gap being close",flip,decrease,False,True,12498.59,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-03T12:31:45.094000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I asked GPT-3 geometry problem. It didn't understand anything,flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:32:31.486000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As I've pointed out before, the criteria in Paul's statement are about a model before the IMO but the criteria in Elieze",flip,increase,False,True,6641.8654,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-04T23:00:28.741000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"nvm maybe i'm wrong, the description explains you didn't mean what i had in mind",hold,decrease,False,True,583459.8452,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-11T02:38:50.709000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I don't think this is weird hypocrisy at all, if it is even hypocrisy it's normal hypocrisy. +You can absolutely like w",hold,hold,True,True,32.9585,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:20:37.485000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"These are not only NOT “arbitrary videos” they aren’t even videos at all. +They turn a prompt into an image, then do sl",decrease,increase,False,True,229.4113,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-05T00:01:19.593000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"The history of the prompts that I used to generate it can be seen: +https://imgur.com/a/2bY7i3E",hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,60.0,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-01T21:14:33.542000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"If you are interested in betting about this, the market doesn't seem to think this is likely",hold,hold,True,True,2656.3518,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-18T00:18:25.746000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"After actually reading the AlphaGeo paper, I'm much more skeptical of this approach generalizing to other IMO subjects. ",flip,decrease,False,True,1361.0968,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:15:15.609000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"That said, I expect a featured spot on Tucker approximately instantly, and very soon online discourse on AI is going to ",decrease,decrease,True,True,5025.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:38:59.351000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Overheard above “Stanford Binet is not exactly a measure of IQ” “Jeopardy is not exactly a measure of general knowledge”,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:24:59.073000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Competitive sprinting is harder than walking my toddler because I am not fast enough to be a competitive sprinter. On th,flip,hold,False,True,100.2312,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T15:14:07.798000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"It doesn't come back to you, but you can donate it to charity!",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-19T15:22:59.985000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Created a market for 3D objects inspired by this one.,decrease,hold,False,True,35.4885,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3a3ac39771e0cca7dfdd30170465481bb87b5312 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,141 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-19T19:53:49.752000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Greg Brockman: ""Model operated in natural language (i.e. outputs natural language proofs) under the same rules as humans",decrease,increase,False,True,4538.0363,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-27T15:06:21.013000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"His track record signing unions approved bills appears to be mixed +2024: +https://calaborfed.org/issues/2024-legislat",increase,hold,False,True,3158.5988,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-21T15:42:34.170000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,The criteria is for a video version of Dali. The only other quality criteria is that there be object permanence. This vi,hold,increase,False,True,640.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-17T17:39:23.397000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Introducing AlphaGeometry: an AI system that solves Olympiad geometry problems at a level approaching a human gold-medal,flip,increase,False,True,1019.242,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-04T10:41:28.155000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"DeepSeek has paper that gives much more details on LLMs+TreeSearch +https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08152",hold,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-28T16:59:41.466000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Well currently o1/o3 have trouble writing rigorous proofs.,hold,hold,True,True,4318.6632,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:25:22.323000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Idk, good question! But I know that if I’m wrong a bunch of these markets can be fixed, so someone in the know should do",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-19T17:27:33.390000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Almost Everytime these long term markes are pessimistic the opposite event is true. A few days ago it was 29%,increase,increase,True,True,273.142,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:34:22.179000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I'm interested in to what extent geometry problems were a bottleneck to IMO gold performance,flip,decrease,False,True,7.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:28:54.771000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"If we look at the original tweet, the person who Tweeted it gave some more context: +Does it fool the eye? +and +The kin",flip,decrease,False,True,22.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T07:58:32.026000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"This pawn moved forward 1, then forward 2.",increase,decrease,False,True,722.902,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-01T20:09:25.031000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Ah, but those Danny DeVito videos demonstrate the opposite! Look at those waves! Look at those watermelons! +https://ww",hold,flip,False,True,2.3493,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-12T19:49:51.741000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Anybody actually in the field of AI knows this is easy yes money. There already exist frameworks for planning algorithms,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-27T19:19:45.789000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,Utterly shocked this is still so high. You really think Newsome is going to tell Pelosi and London Breed to fuck off. No,increase,increase,True,True,106.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T17:03:18.569000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I feel kind of bad for posting this... + I feel like we in a way, by participating in this market are actually acceller",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T22:59:27.340000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I'm not any kind of researcher but I can see when a market is ambiguously defined and the creator has bought shares.,flip,decrease,False,True,658.0791,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T14:49:21.264000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Is it the model Gemini currently uses? Didn't work through Gemini for me.,flip,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:43:25.781000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That's true, but I think Austin (understandably) misread what Eliezer's position was (or was going off of the initial po",flip,hold,False,True,6641.8654,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T20:57:50.907000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"(Their overall rank is 21st and 35th and likely won’t hold. +No objection to not resolving yet. ) +— +Any of you who th",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:16:48.877000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,Wait… do you know how to get confirmation on that? Where did you hear that? (I’m not betting on Polymarket I just want ,hold,decrease,False,True,8249.926,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T16:38:56.789000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,And it seemed the only way to then get back to the main menu was to press the concede button...,decrease,decrease,True,True,44.1193,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T16:37:23.020000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,This is so broken 😅 I just won by timeout against the AI without any moves being made,decrease,decrease,True,True,44.1193,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T18:20:56.963000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Strongly disagree. You are forgetting how much of the liberal non-progressives are working or associated with those who ,decrease,increase,False,True,39.7178,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:32:31.486000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As I've pointed out before, the criteria in Paul's statement are about a model before the IMO but the criteria in Elieze",flip,increase,False,True,6641.8654,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-16T23:25:20.979000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Obviously not. I meant within reason, just like I wouldn't bet on anyone but God being able to create a universe tomorro",increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:31:25.857000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"For what it's worth, it wasn't just a single statement. She +went on KQED + yesterday and criticized the bill more.",increase,increase,True,True,33531.3527,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-05-15T21:08:20.214000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"The left is making solid progress towards being straightforwardly anti-AI, but for this market to resolve YES the right ",flip,decrease,False,True,4.2746,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-03T22:20:12.986000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I don't know, but I expect them to know. As one potential example, maybe less geometry and more game theory? I think AIs",hold,decrease,False,True,9.8138,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:33:48.072000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"oh yeah but that's just geometry, right? It's still really cool tho! +AlphaGeometry2 solves 42 out of 50 of all 2000-202",flip,decrease,False,True,7.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-19T15:22:59.985000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Created a market for 3D objects inspired by this one.,decrease,hold,False,True,35.4885,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-11-09T09:51:57.308000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"If I'm understanding it correctly, the resolution criteria for this market is IMO Grand Challenge minus the open-source ",hold,decrease,False,True,0.8081,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:04:53.632000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.03544 +Alphageom 2 solved 84% of the International Math Olympiad (IMO) problems from 2000-24 ",increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-29T21:31:01.479000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,More related markets potentially arbable with this:,increase,hold,False,True,1113.1649,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-10T11:12:35.546000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also, competitive programming is much easier than the full suite of judgement skills a programmer needs. humans who over",hold,decrease,False,True,91.7512,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:24:59.073000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Competitive sprinting is harder than walking my toddler because I am not fast enough to be a competitive sprinter. On th,flip,hold,False,True,100.2312,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-09-28T18:49:15.680000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://manifold.markets/jack/will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the-fc04e26738c6?r=MmViNw +Comparing these markets, math is",increase,flip,False,True,55.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T04:49:34.340000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,yeah that's really good. I would say for certain stylistic cartoons it already qualifies. Wherther the odd janky hands a,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-29T10:27:24.858000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"GEN2 is clearly doing amazing things. I mean, just look at this footage! +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMqEG32UslU",increase,flip,False,True,237.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T01:58:21.256000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The new algo did well enough for a silver medal, not a gold. So people are giving 67% to the rest of the gap being close",flip,decrease,False,True,12498.59,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-20T20:26:49.719000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,At 0:27 you can see that it fails at object permanence,decrease,increase,False,True,4552.9787,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:29:09.843000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"I'm super confused because tons of articles say the deadline is Sep 30, e.g. +https://deadline.com/2024/09/ai-legislati",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-30T22:23:39.731000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Take a look at the rate of progress on math contest problems +https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-i",flip,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:17:39.136000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"(Edit: I don't stand by anything i said more than 1 picosecond ago anymore so maybe this is wrong, see jack's reply) + y",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-12-05T18:32:02.407000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"10 million dollar in prizes announced +, half for publicly-shared model progress, half for actually getting the gold.",increase,increase,True,True,6.8115,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:00:28.528000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-in/ +This is from June - great article on hypermind forecasts fo",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T14:35:13.619000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"It's still pretty bad with respect to the question, but this is Dalle1 level of crappy. Would be very surprised we don't",hold,decrease,False,True,1279.4436,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:35:00.826000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,the author said he pulled everything together with an editor.,increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T21:15:05.536000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Based on + 's comment it seems like the title should be ""Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2026",decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:18:07.920000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,This is why I think you shouldn't put too much import on markets in how random people (even famous ones) resolve a bet. ,flip,decrease,False,True,6641.8654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T15:11:20.977000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Apologies, I read that wrong XD",increase,decrease,False,True,710.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T16:15:29.879000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,aren't this and all the balenciaga meme videos made with a lot of human assistance,flip,decrease,False,True,2969.6911,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-03T12:31:45.094000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I asked GPT-3 geometry problem. It didn't understand anything,flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:58:49.496000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Good luck to the AI with these. +(the MATH dataset was basically “predict one token”, and mostly multiple choice)",increase,hold,False,True,724.7779,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-08T23:09:41.169000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"DeepMind launches AlphaCode. Time to DAMPU. +https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1158",flip,flip,True,True,33.9771,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-05T16:19:54.502000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"super solid argument to be honest, not sure how to respond.",hold,decrease,False,True,23.0676,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-30T22:24:17.459000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"(in the next year, specifically)",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-30T18:58:33.517000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/ +I am (overly?) pattern matching to the opposite o",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:26:55.441000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Correct me if I'm wrong, but ""The Governor has 12 days to sign, approve without signing, or veto a bill."" +https://www.",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T02:58:13.200000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,The about page includes a link to a nonexistent history page in the header,hold,decrease,False,True,3309.8468,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-17T16:39:28.880000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Looks like the playbook everyone was talking about might actually work: +Synthetic data +NL reasoning about proof strate",decrease,increase,False,True,2201.531,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-02T09:20:08.557000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Thanks. Why didn't you pick it up?,hold,decrease,False,True,3026.6022,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T04:30:57.559000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Psh ok then yeah, no way is this happening within the next year. Thanks for clarifying.",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T13:26:37.269000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Here is a pretty convincing demo +https://mobile.twitter.com/hardmaru/status/1575476224880934913",increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:17:44.972000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,So crappy they immediately ghosted their own Twitter account:,decrease,increase,False,True,229.4113,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T21:27:09.514000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Ok sorry for some reason I had the impression that Manifold questions generically used by X year to mean before X year b,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:12:56.402000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Advent of Code is not exactly competitive programming.,increase,hold,False,True,136.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T21:46:38.502000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"deepmind, the most likely group to do this, seems to be giving signs they intend to slow down. This is a black swan for ",decrease,decrease,True,True,181.7512,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T18:09:52.012000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Yeah, this market is set up on the condition that one side is pro and the other is anti. Right now, it appears that both",decrease,decrease,True,True,39.7178,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-30T12:47:05.638000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"and also here, the shop sign on the left is hidden when the woman walks past and then reappears looking the same.",hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T12:17:12.975000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,You're buying Yes at 17% when there is literally no chance it happens this year... why?,hold,increase,False,True,800.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T12:10:21.126000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,they are using ais to code their services /j,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:03:08.734000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Strongly agree. We'll let this ride out a news cycle or two and see how it shakes out. Even if it was just a temporary b,decrease,increase,False,True,5025.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:21:52.903000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"confirmation that polymarket != this one? I don’t have confirmation. It’s my reading of +This resolves NO if SB 1047 doe",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-31T04:43:37.209000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Starting to fear that we're going to polarize into an anti-AI right and a pro-AI left. I give it a 30% chance.,hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:15:15.609000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"That said, I expect a featured spot on Tucker approximately instantly, and very soon online discourse on AI is going to ",decrease,decrease,True,True,5025.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T15:03:09.264000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,then why are you betting 500 on YES?,increase,decrease,False,True,710.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T12:45:44.182000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"dang it, I was going to make this the best chess variant site ever by blowing $30000 into it.",hold,decrease,False,True,14341.7931,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T04:06:56.235000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Seriously, LLMs arent yet at +average + human level on most benchmarks. Forgot about being better than the best-of-the-",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-18T22:21:22.724000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,yeah I don't feel the need to convince the market,decrease,hold,False,True,51.7512,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-20T20:36:26.446000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Disagree. The original dialogue mentions any of ""the 2022, 2023, 2024, or 2025 IMO"". The fact that Eliezer + Paul were a",hold,increase,False,True,113818.8317,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:30:48.434000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"agreed, this is one of the most mispriced markets on the site",increase,increase,True,True,48.8005,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-11-20T23:28:08.329000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Your ""pro-life"" or ""reproductive rights"" example is a good analogy. +Not just any opinion about AI counts; it has to be ",increase,hold,False,True,600.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:25:13.150000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Since you are being a good steward and advocating for the NO side, I want to be a good steward and advocate for the YES ",flip,decrease,False,True,22.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:42:26.528000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"I'm trying to verify this but my tentative conclusion is +> The Governor has 12 days to make a decision if the Legislatu",decrease,hold,False,True,56244.2705,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T17:28:49.884000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Arbitrage or I'm missing something?,flip,decrease,False,True,46.6964,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T18:20:51.352000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,what do you think about the models shared in the comments?,flip,hold,False,True,585.5444,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-27T14:10:50.323000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,OpenAI going for profit and Altman’s shenanigans make the bill or something of its kind more needed but that doesn’t mak,increase,hold,False,True,3158.5988,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-28T16:08:29.900000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,It also didn't get the exact same question formulations as the humans did.,hold,decrease,False,True,557.3581,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-10-06T04:45:21.032000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Mostly pedantic 🤔 +The description asks for “most of the time”; it obviously passes that test in the videos and especial",hold,decrease,False,True,140.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-22T20:11:05.839000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"""Clearly the link you gave is more in the direction of LLMs than of alphazero."" +Oh, indeed. I had somehow missed that i",hold,decrease,False,True,5075.5617,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-10T14:11:03.341000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"just clarifying that a pocket signature would resolve this market YES, correct? The close date/time is at the end of Oc",hold,hold,True,True,8249.926,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-17T23:02:22.343000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Turns out I was completely wrong and on +https://matharena.ai/ + the LLMs got their best score on the contrived game pr",hold,decrease,False,True,9.8138,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-26T00:47:12.238000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Might have been a staffer that received my email today, it was pretty convincing tbh.",flip,decrease,False,True,1250.3735,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:13:45.468000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"That's a good point, going by the original resolution criteria. I am updating to say that I'm much more confident things",decrease,decrease,True,True,5025.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T16:17:41.788000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Ive heard geom is easy compared to eg combinatorics, which is the real beast that ais couldnt even come close to solving",decrease,decrease,True,True,588073.3369,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:15:43.851000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Like I said, Paul said one thing and Eliezer said a different thing. See the second quote in the question +EDIT +:  I s",flip,decrease,False,True,6641.8654,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-06-08T14:02:56.904000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I haven't really been following the story. +Looks like they launched a Stable Diffusion reskin called ""Gabby"" back in Fe",hold,hold,True,True,55.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:48:18.808000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Based on everything that's been said, I definitely was not expecting current right-wing complaints about censorship in C",decrease,decrease,True,True,298.3319,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..529a3d69815538e7b85461299e370f02973dd478 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,138 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-05-19T18:12:57.054000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Ok, thanks for the clarification!",hold,hold,True,True,6397.2756,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T12:58:29.385000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,In the standard contest duration.,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-02-07T20:52:39.014000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Not to discredit Alpha Geometry, but I do feel like the way Olympiad geometry problems are set up does not require much ",increase,increase,True,True,14049.4358,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T17:25:58.145000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"From experience, get better results by talking to it like a programmer to another programme, being very specific about w",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-03T17:04:35.050000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,A lot of these markets going down once the calendar flipped to 2024. Interesting...,increase,hold,False,True,1404.736,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T14:09:12.275000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I have GitHub copilot for $10 a month and it has basically unlimited use of all but the best models.,decrease,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T18:20:51.352000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,what do you think about the models shared in the comments?,flip,hold,False,True,585.5444,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:41:12.523000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I think it's so awesome to have this market where people are posting new cyborg-generated videos using AI tools...it's a,flip,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-05-15T21:08:20.214000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"The left is making solid progress towards being straightforwardly anti-AI, but for this market to resolve YES the right ",flip,decrease,False,True,4.2746,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T00:01:26.843000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Right, had not even considered that, though that seems unlikely to me.",decrease,hold,False,True,2500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T16:30:12.703000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,the AI player is utter trash right now. Suspect it's still some variation on random movement.,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-04-05T10:53:47.670000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I’m betting yes, but in an effort to consider and share all relevant evidence: I was surprised that AI worry is evenly s",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T17:28:49.884000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Arbitrage or I'm missing something?,flip,decrease,False,True,46.6964,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T13:32:53.876000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"This question is definitely not asking whether a computer can ""program at all"". Systems like Codex have been able to sol",increase,hold,False,True,696.5469,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:24:59.073000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Competitive sprinting is harder than walking my toddler because I am not fast enough to be a competitive sprinter. On th,flip,hold,False,True,100.2312,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:23:04.018000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"In the first screenshot above, the first question is about an option that will have an immediate effect on the game that",hold,decrease,False,True,3309.8468,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:00:41.698000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047 +> Enrolled  September 03, 2024 +> ",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T21:15:31.994000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Rules don’t specify whether capturing en passant is allowed. Because it says peace, movement is normal, I’d assume that",hold,hold,True,True,3250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-12T23:55:36.322000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,liberal leftists will get drowned out by the 5G/Microchip people. I don't see anyone in congress raising a protect artis,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-04-21T11:11:04.987000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I assume ""no"" given this exchange below: +' +Joseph Noonan +is predicting NO at 50% +2 months ago +@ShakedKoplewitz + B",hold,hold,True,True,1990.9903,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-10-03T03:22:35.824000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"This is why I was pushing for a pre-committed, specific test for object permanency. We're about to get bogged down into ",increase,decrease,False,True,310.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-18T22:21:22.724000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,yeah I don't feel the need to convince the market,decrease,hold,False,True,51.7512,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T04:49:37.008000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,(i could of course be misunderstanding something),decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T18:43:52.936000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Very large gap between question 1 and 5/6. Good AIME testers can solve 1 but 5/6 are extremely hard,hold,hold,True,True,696.8302,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-05T22:09:56.893000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"It didn't win advent of code. Advent of code isn't even +finished + yet. Never mind whether advent of code is competiti",flip,decrease,False,True,210.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:34:22.179000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I'm interested in to what extent geometry problems were a bottleneck to IMO gold performance,flip,decrease,False,True,7.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T04:33:24.004000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Most coding competitions break ties based on submission speed so there's a reasonable chance this will come up, but only",flip,hold,False,True,210.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T18:12:39.268000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"like I said, you should be able to make the ai do the easy thing, which is create problems. If you're solving problems f",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-10T21:06:25.781000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I agree with these points, but readers should also note that Paul has said below that formal to formal solutions would b",hold,hold,True,True,4010.6577,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T01:58:21.256000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The new algo did well enough for a silver medal, not a gold. So people are giving 67% to the rest of the gap being close",flip,decrease,False,True,12498.59,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-11-07T17:39:03.833000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"As this will probably resolve NO I made a duplicate market for 2024 +Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive prog",decrease,hold,False,True,16.6686,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-02T21:03:29.125000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"explains why I couldn't find it, thanks for the link",decrease,hold,False,True,223.8005,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-27T11:23:45.976000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Base rates according to Perplexity: +How frequently (percentage-wise) has governor Gavin Newsom veto'd a bill? +Governor",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:28:54.771000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"If we look at the original tweet, the person who Tweeted it gave some more context: +Does it fool the eye? +and +The kin",flip,decrease,False,True,22.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:43:25.781000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That's true, but I think Austin (understandably) misread what Eliezer's position was (or was going off of the initial po",flip,hold,False,True,6641.8654,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-15T22:29:01.509000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I didn’t test in depth but 4o got this first try,increase,increase,True,True,450.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-02-07T17:43:40.735000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As an ex-math olympiad competitor (never went to IMO but probably around low bronze level), and current computer science",increase,hold,False,True,14049.4358,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-05T06:12:41.249000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Why isn't the market updating to the recent progress in efficiency of deepseek style math improvements +https://x.com/t",increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T19:00:09.815000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Betting yes on this market yesterday is a winning strategy :),flip,increase,False,True,8250.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-22T20:40:07.819000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"The clusters I'm seeing emerge are something like: +Far left dislikes AI because of issues like bias +Moderate left (inc",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-24T19:27:26.259000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Yall are so wiggly, I kinda want to write a sigma bot at this point",hold,hold,True,True,481.6234,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T13:45:07.138000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I wish I could get 100x leverage for this market.,increase,increase,True,True,175.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T22:59:27.340000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I'm not any kind of researcher but I can see when a market is ambiguously defined and the creator has bought shares.,flip,decrease,False,True,658.0791,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-08-26T22:54:52.680000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"An AI scoring above 10+ on the AIME seems plausible in this timeframe (massive speed advantage, numerical answer, very l",increase,decrease,False,True,48.2891,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-26T01:33:14.163000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"On the basis of the ""object permanency"" requirement, I'm betting NO. I do think it would be best if we could agree on a ",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-19T00:08:08.370000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"DeepMind solved 25 out of 30 questions—compared to 26 for a human gold medalist. +https://arstechnica.com/ai/2024/01/dee",increase,decrease,False,True,37.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-07-23T05:08:07.038000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"@Duncan any imo likely means 2023,2024 or 2025 IMO",flip,hold,False,True,0.6978,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T17:02:05.036000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"even if it wasn't those are all common problems, if they did a text search for ""twin towers"" or some common problem like",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:00:28.528000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-in/ +This is from June - great article on hypermind forecasts fo",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-31T05:29:54.368000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Democrats are already freaking out about AI, nearly every opinion article in the liberal media has a neutral-to-negative",increase,increase,True,True,132.9585,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-28T16:08:29.900000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,It also didn't get the exact same question formulations as the humans did.,hold,decrease,False,True,557.3581,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:32:31.486000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As I've pointed out before, the criteria in Paul's statement are about a model before the IMO but the criteria in Elieze",flip,increase,False,True,6641.8654,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T14:49:21.264000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Is it the model Gemini currently uses? Didn't work through Gemini for me.,flip,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:38:45.059000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I think there's no question that what humans are starting to do with different varieties of AI tools is getting better. ,flip,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T19:55:58.449000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Ah, cool. More interesting of a problem than it looked to me then :)",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:07:30.940000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Beeping option is present from the “gear” settings menu, but not from the “Advanced” options menu. The other elements p",hold,hold,True,True,3309.8468,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T14:08:25.177000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,But the money I put in doesn't come out? Doesn't seem like the same thing. I would rather play with mana I earned throug,increase,hold,False,True,175.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-12T21:19:58.005000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"On looking at the +AlphaCode paper +, the most striking thing to me is it has to throw out 99% of the solutions it gene",decrease,decrease,True,True,136.653,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T22:37:45.878000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"So, the remaining 30%-ish is in how Paul and Eliezer rule the bet on the speed of the solve, and on the ability to solve",decrease,hold,False,True,2500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T04:42:17.200000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Now buying at 42%, will do 45% if someone puts up a large limit order",hold,increase,False,True,42283.6995,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-23T04:35:43.705000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Do you think there will be a lot more attention on this before the end of 2023?,increase,decrease,False,True,110.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:45:34.613000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"idk why these edge cases aren't mentioned in the citizens guide, if true",decrease,decrease,True,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T15:00:32.167000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,problem is that programming is just providing instructions to a machine. Listening to your manager babble is 100% of the,decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T02:37:35.797000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Well, AlphaZero is a form of tree search, so I guess I would expect it to be possible to parallelize by taking the n mos",increase,decrease,False,True,4488.1709,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T04:24:43.510000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,is THAT what the market is positing? So an algorithm that can beat a top human at even a single coding challenge would b,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-17T19:05:48.081000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Based on looking at past IMOs, I expected a ~60% or perhaps a bit higher chance that there would be two combinatorics qu",decrease,decrease,True,True,6178.7581,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T02:38:32.755000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"On iPhone XS, I cannot reach the chat input",hold,decrease,False,True,3309.8468,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-26T21:05:38.389000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"they saw +this graph +, very bullish trend",increase,increase,True,True,14751.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-10-03T02:55:44.428000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Hard disagree. It is pretty clear from its footage that it's just relying on the prompt to infer what should be there (s,hold,flip,False,True,1279.4436,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T22:49:07.601000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Who is bidding this up 🤔 +AI can’t even get 90th percentile on the SAT—under any reasonable resolution it has to write h",increase,increase,True,True,294.7779,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T04:35:45.448000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"“the only reasonable interpretation of ""outcompete"" is for the AI to solve more problems than the humans can in a contes",hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-19T15:22:59.985000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Created a market for 3D objects inspired by this one.,decrease,hold,False,True,35.4885,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T00:32:52.980000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"The market states: ""Will DeepMind, or anyone else provide evidence in 2023 they can beat the best human competitors?"" +T",increase,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-11-27T02:51:24.418000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"People two ""Culture War In 2024?"" markets are open and what better time to take a view than now? I will not bet in my ow",increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-21T17:57:12.265000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I was skimming that myself, I felt that the proof that ""a_n is even for all n"" in Q4 could have been more succinct, but ",hold,hold,True,True,2234.9403,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:20:37.485000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"These are not only NOT “arbitrary videos” they aren’t even videos at all. +They turn a prompt into an image, then do sl",decrease,increase,False,True,229.4113,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:47:22.563000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"the shot of scientists in lab coats together at a machine ( +time stamped link +) is a GenMo video, not a Midjourney zoo",decrease,decrease,True,True,544.052,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-04-07T01:37:37.676000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,is it possible for it to be a culture war without being left/right? or does that just not happen,decrease,decrease,True,True,129.6034,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:59:31.110000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"I don't even understand the question being posed there, although I think some of that is because of the terseness/broken",hold,hold,True,True,302.5862,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-05T01:29:29.940000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"My first attempt, something like “draw a five-sided polygon” only got 1/4 that might have been considered a pentagon. T",increase,decrease,False,True,505.1072,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-29T02:33:40.235000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"I think that was just people reacting to the schedule being unchanged, leaving SB 1047 on the docket for the following d",increase,hold,False,True,1249.926,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-08T23:09:41.169000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"DeepMind launches AlphaCode. Time to DAMPU. +https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1158",flip,flip,True,True,33.9771,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-06-24T07:21:32.490000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Note that the AI does not need to replicate the human process of solving a math problem, but can instead e.g. defer to a",decrease,decrease,True,True,189.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T04:49:34.340000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,yeah that's really good. I would say for certain stylistic cartoons it already qualifies. Wherther the odd janky hands a,flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:43:38.182000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Sorry I'm confused what are you talking about?,flip,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T17:03:24.786000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,for some definition of before…,flip,decrease,False,True,5250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-07T23:24:31.752000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"To continue the argument: +My interpretation is that we should anchor on the ""AlphaCode is as good as the median human c",hold,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-17T08:03:07.388000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Basically Pelosi argues that Godmother of AI said that the bill could stifle innovation +https://pelosi.house.gov/news/",decrease,flip,False,True,691.4924,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-02-26T14:33:27.277000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Why is this market at 81% if we have Paul at <8% and Eliezer at >16%? +I feel that I'm missing something about the resol",hold,decrease,False,True,13.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T04:06:56.235000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Seriously, LLMs arent yet at +average + human level on most benchmarks. Forgot about being better than the best-of-the-",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T19:16:40.930000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,I think Newsom will veto but I also thought the legislature wouldn’t approve so I wouldn’t trust my instincts necessaril,hold,decrease,False,True,6000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:25:13.150000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Since you are being a good steward and advocating for the NO side, I want to be a good steward and advocate for the YES ",flip,decrease,False,True,22.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-18T00:18:25.746000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"After actually reading the AlphaGeo paper, I'm much more skeptical of this approach generalizing to other IMO subjects. ",flip,decrease,False,True,1361.0968,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T01:02:45.424000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"More like the semantics of what “outcompete” means. The question never said it has to win a challenge. But I agree, at t",hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:18:59.199000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Yes, but the quote I mentioned is said directly after, does not belong to Paul or Eliezer, but to the author of the ques",decrease,flip,False,True,56051.7439,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T10:10:01.364000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Unfortunate problem distribution, making the problems particularly difficult for the model +Reducing computation to a 4.",decrease,decrease,True,True,56051.7439,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T16:15:29.879000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,aren't this and all the balenciaga meme videos made with a lot of human assistance,flip,decrease,False,True,2969.6911,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T21:02:00.205000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"On mobile, if I switch to a different app and return, the timer is frozen and I can’t make any more moves",hold,decrease,False,True,3250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-18T00:24:26.478000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,Does not seem very clearly NO. And theres always the possibility for pocket signature,decrease,decrease,True,True,55.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-12-04T22:41:34.464000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Could you at least resolve this as NA and refund us given that you seem to have meant something very different from ""wil",hold,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3b4dbdd9543fcc339e5c9da900745814d86983ba --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +4,0.1881849153721193,0.20974904055286497,0.021564125180745686,UP,0.06502992479236765,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,26,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.4693991482091326,0.31450293135908614,-0.15489621685004645,DOWN,0.28920980183962863,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,18,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.31450293135908614,0.3394722420107096,0.024969310651623444,UP,0.8670872488418532,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.48451323801426394,0.5126837327879763,0.028170494773712362,UP,0.6643748987421966,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.7108794142426846,0.39396056773388366,-0.316918846508801,DOWN,0.3512059158840812,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,17,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.5157369310442732,0.37850310605264914,-0.13723382499162406,DOWN,0.8529469423561021,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,9,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.6944565643448953,0.7625296208325553,0.06807305648765993,UP,0.8317597395159299,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,45,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.12436470663860916,0.06664786042314928,-0.057716846215459874,DOWN,0.921494056040212,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,9,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.33603318911889346,0.24332750422033242,-0.09270568489856104,DOWN,0.7381315155397067,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,26,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0,0.20974904055286497,0.22542422889585675,0.01567518834299178,UP,0.6118245068876946,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,26,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.635116162393221,0.317243104232781,-0.31787305816044,DOWN,0.8703870761006977,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,18,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.03460229717829799,0.02131541681361643,-0.01328688036468156,DOWN,0.47119082274402124,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,20,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c7136894c620fc2c1b79863078b72779434d93a5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.4017185296733163,0.5130227409725795,0.11130421129926321,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.6020269270531097,0.4598830717303883,-0.1421438553227214,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,10,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.6963406416745089,0.7340742839533315,0.03773364227882259,UP,0.39654215373110197,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,6,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.25554938396292154,0.20261303977471307,-0.05293634418820847,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,3,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.1757610137761884,0.14121519578313252,-0.034545817993055894,DOWN,0.10884606625332813,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,16,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.20999999999999985,0.13903164823810985,-0.07096835176189001,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,3,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.32229314087884614,0.2734068250533575,-0.048886315825488635,DOWN,0.9093086121216145,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,31,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.8166710489394958,0.8384545209707122,0.021783472031216333,UP,0.9965277440337234,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,19,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.36654859042639215,0.3208915264199066,-0.04565706400648556,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,6,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.6941353376384358,0.8018382287718089,0.10770289113337306,UP,0.9970463585389426,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,5,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.3848015664714573,0.35243295225158255,-0.03236861421987475,DOWN,0.15546748819728365,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,14,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.06704650204704601,0.03706794619591887,-0.029978555851127145,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,5,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2f26b2fce5464a977e3f3a54047e4343a8d0b598 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,110 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:43:18.418000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Yes, I value mana well below the purchase price. +Also, $100 might actually be too low. I’ll think more and try to get ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T14:04:50.071000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I won't solve to YES due to Spaces.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T20:04:19.090000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I hate the Leviesque resolution criteria.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-07T13:01:32.765000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"no, I already had whiplash on this market and with all the controversy wouldn't count on the most solid and specific of ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T08:26:19.453000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T18:47:36.976000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I sold my position. It seems that if the current headlines on a 15 hour outage are not considered enough, it’s less than",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:43:49.243000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I have had access to the Google Search experiment for a month already and commented on it somewhere below and I am still,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:20:55.330000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, I'm wondering if ""person on the street"" is just a bad benchmark to use, either for being too low a bar or for bein",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:41:10.063000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought in at 97% or so, thinking I was betting on an event which had just occured. This market wiped out my all time p",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T15:17:58.167000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I think Predict is doing a great job running this market, just want to give them kudos for that. I'm going to watch WWDC",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T10:51:22.870000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If it turns out to be some intermediate model, this market resolves based on whether it's ""closer"" to GPT-3 and its deri",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T16:26:05.156000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Having listened to the first five episodes can you tell us if you think the market is well priced currently?,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T20:07:02.178000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Note that announcement is not enough, there has to be at least early access for some outsiders before March 31st.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T17:05:51.254000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,... Seems to work fine in Spanish using ChatGPT and Google Translate as a metric. That's up to 40 million people in the ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T02:56:33.793000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Are we sure it passes the 1 hour test?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:10:32.675000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Idk, that's an inference, but that doesn't matter because the market creator's statements are pretty direct. Apple needs",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:01:09.795000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,For the record I bought my large NO holdings after I wrote and posted my above argument to show that I believe in what I,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:19:30.851000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,the banned troll is always and forevermore victorious once again,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:41:14.623000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Who is ""firm on how they intend to resolve""? Rai's most recent comment says, ""yes i'd be super happy to just transfer t",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:20:02.687000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"@agentydragon I bought into this market when it said ""BY"" June, and you've repeated it again here by mistake. It's misle",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:38:58.860000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, I don't think ascii art should count as pure text, even though technically it is. Also I did say ""single prompt""..",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:31:21.135000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"within the year? something that would feel extortionary, probably above 150k mana / $100. I’d have to think about it tho",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-07T06:49:26.876000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",i sold a bit because i dont like dogs,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:33:45.429000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"If you're literally just reading out market prices I'm not sure that qualifies as ""original content"".",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-19T19:00:52.547000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I'd buy some YES in this market if Leagues were changed to solely focus on predictive profit,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T08:24:04.717000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"For anyone confused why people are mad, +this is what the page looked like on March 26 +. +The title was changed from ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-22T18:09:15.881000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,A year to basically completely revamp a product in charge of >$160B/year revenue is ridiculously fast,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:38:54.291000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I guess this comes down to how the market should be resolved. Technically, both of the stated resolution criteria (promo",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:26:12.817000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,All 3 of these are hilarious. A+. You have my confidence in YES.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-01T06:05:42.835000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"sorry for delay. I think I’d guarantee another episode for $300, if you really want to finance it! +note that price may ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:52:08.281000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Ok maybe I’m just brainfoggy rn but I can’t spot the error,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T02:56:02.615000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"the person I can most easily imagine paying this is +. I'm not gonna spend time seeking funding though because that con",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T17:38:01.831000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I did not understand that using tools + engines would be allowed since this makes the whole thing WAY less impressive. H,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-13T06:30:29.201000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I don't think it will be that hard to determine whether the GPT-4 aspect matters. There are basically 3 options: +He mad",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:17:55.323000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If people are holding expecting market fluctuations, that's one thing, but if you are saying this market is priced 15-20",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-17T14:15:19.006000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,It would be more interesting to ask if the model used for Bing either has >50% more parameters (the jump from GPT-2 to G,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T19:42:51.737000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I'd agree but I didn't make 154 losses on that trade, nor did I have 155 profit before! I sold those shares at the price",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T01:56:55.222000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Your right markets shouldn't be able to, as you've put it, hard fork. My solution to prevent this from happening again, ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-03T19:01:23.424000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I think my human brain did imagine at first that the person was climbing a small number of stories and looking down into,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:48:43.341000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,It’s way too late for that unfortunately. This is now the second most traded market in Manifold history so if you wanna ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:55:33.646000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"much appreciated! I sold my YES at -3297 a few days ago. +Imo this should resolve NA regardless. Most traders here bet ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:53:05.419000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought my first NO at 43% and never above 50%. There is still plenty of money to be made here with some smart limit or,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-28T00:17:59.561000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I misspoke; these were Yes shares that I sold.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-01T06:06:46.485000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"actually, $150 limited time offer this week only",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-04T17:45:45.849000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Trying to give a breakdown on my understanding of this market because I might write a more extended blog post on this to,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T21:00:30.060000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"to me +bard.google.com + provides it's response of it's not available in your region yet!!",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:38:46.459000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"lots of complicated thoughts here +happy to guarantee a payment to MMP $150 from Manifold, less to pay for a marginal po",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-30T18:28:52.123000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Kenshin is 99% confident + of a February release, so get those 5x EV gains betting February up on + .",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:16:43.706000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought a lot of yes but sold it again after re-reading the announcement. the requirement is that you can conversate wi,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T00:46:32.993000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, all the errors from o3 that I've seen on tricksy questions like that are quite human-like. See also FAQ5. When in ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-08T03:11:03.299000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Apple and Google Podcasts are the only platforms to resolve yes?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:44:22.012000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yep, selling my position as well. I have no doubt this will be resolved NO due to a technicality on the way you interact",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T22:38:45.906000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,for remaining ambiguity: it doesn't strike me as super obvious that the average street walker could answer that either? ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T22:49:50.689000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I am planning to train a transformer model to play chess, and traders here might be interested in guessing what its Elo ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2024-01-26T14:12:42.184000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,📢I have given a poll to manifold staff. Should know in 24 hours to resolve this.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T20:25:44.839000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"wow, how I wasn't aware? What do you mean by what behaviors and markets are acceptable?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:48:37.607000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I think based on the description this should resolve no? But originally based on the title I bought yes, so this market ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T11:29:06.308000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I think we have different mental models of the general populace. I don’t think most people would struggle to figure out ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-27T19:00:49.725000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"What makes something a chatbot? You used to be able to do, on Google: +[who is barack obama] +Barack Hussein Obama II (",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-29T23:23:22.040000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Enjoy the shares! I've really enjoyed my 43 minutes in this market.,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-30T23:44:27.314000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I sold at -M3297 profit - half my portfolio gone - after betting on an event that had already happened 😬,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:08:00.310000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought and sold around 98.5% myself getting some profit. +I sold all the no as I think this should resolve as yes now.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T03:00:57.402000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Ok guys. A little bit of housekeeping. +I plan to report resolve it as a YES if it's on the frontpage of a major news o",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T18:15:26.427000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Short term market set up for this tighter time frame: +https://manifold.markets/JohnRoxton/will-twitter-suffer-a-major-o",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T10:47:29.709000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"A few ideas off the top of my head that I'd expect LLMs to fail where someone off the street would succeed: +What were ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T16:51:11.548000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Oh I'm sure it is hallucination. There's no reason its training data or prompt would include such information about itse,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-17T20:37:16.236000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Summarizing the issue with ""by"" vs ""at"", correct me if this summary is wrong: The original question title was ""Will Goog",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T21:04:06.400000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"There's a spectrum of answers of increasing correctness and it's a bit of a judgment call where the ""egregiously wrong"" ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:53:49.112000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"not everyone's first language is English, so buy at your own risk. The direct translation in their native language of by",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-05T16:26:13.292000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I'm sure I'm biased, though, as + points out, this was my understanding since before I bought No. +My opinion is at lea",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T23:35:22.850000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I'm leaving this market open for trading a bit longer but I'm considering the deadline for prompts to have passed. So at,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-15T23:46:47.461000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Unsure of what other people think or what the metrics reflect, but from a personal experience I went from using manifold",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-14T07:25:06.845000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Trader bonuses are capped at 100 traders = 500 mana = $5. It used to be double, or $10.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:29:37.916000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Are you saying it's mispriced 15-20% and that it should be 5-10)? It's a little confusing because 5-10% could mean it's ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-06T17:09:02.446000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","that would be great motivation, but unfortunately I have my own reasons to think they won't release it before the EoM, s",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:51:30.953000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"It's the same for me, the leaderboard seems much more meaningful than leagues and it's unfortunate that it's been deemp",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T17:56:28.218000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,This feature has radically changed the way I use Manifold for the better from a user experience perspective. I can’t get,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-16T23:05:43.048000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If it turns out to be some intermediate model, this market resolves based on whether it's ""closer"" to GPT-3 and its deri",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T22:22:00.326000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I can't believe this market is still active. I exited weeks ago. Like, after the title change, still NONE of you know ho",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T23:21:24.914000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I just tried out GPT-4 via ChatGPT Plus.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:03:03.957000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I also think some people are holding YES or NO in expectation of market fluctuations, rather than expectations of resolu",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T23:56:43.035000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,You must be new to manifold markets then. Most markets here don't get resolved in the spirit of the market but on the mi,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T10:45:30.591000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,but I don't after all! i sold and it's back to +1 so idgi,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T22:59:47.982000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Resolving YES now is not appropriate, because it does not fulfill the requirements of it being generally available. Hypo",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c7313fe34411a567f6b40ad49a2375f87b68d3f2 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,110 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T14:04:50.071000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I won't solve to YES due to Spaces.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T08:26:19.453000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-07T13:01:32.765000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"no, I already had whiplash on this market and with all the controversy wouldn't count on the most solid and specific of ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:43:49.243000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I have had access to the Google Search experiment for a month already and commented on it somewhere below and I am still,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T20:04:19.090000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I hate the Leviesque resolution criteria.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:43:18.418000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Yes, I value mana well below the purchase price. +Also, $100 might actually be too low. I’ll think more and try to get ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:41:10.063000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought in at 97% or so, thinking I was betting on an event which had just occured. This market wiped out my all time p",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T18:47:36.976000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I sold my position. It seems that if the current headlines on a 15 hour outage are not considered enough, it’s less than",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T15:17:58.167000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I think Predict is doing a great job running this market, just want to give them kudos for that. I'm going to watch WWDC",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:20:55.330000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, I'm wondering if ""person on the street"" is just a bad benchmark to use, either for being too low a bar or for bein",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T10:51:22.870000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If it turns out to be some intermediate model, this market resolves based on whether it's ""closer"" to GPT-3 and its deri",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T17:05:51.254000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,... Seems to work fine in Spanish using ChatGPT and Google Translate as a metric. That's up to 40 million people in the ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T16:26:05.156000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Having listened to the first five episodes can you tell us if you think the market is well priced currently?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:10:32.675000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Idk, that's an inference, but that doesn't matter because the market creator's statements are pretty direct. Apple needs",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T20:07:02.178000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Note that announcement is not enough, there has to be at least early access for some outsiders before March 31st.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:01:09.795000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,For the record I bought my large NO holdings after I wrote and posted my above argument to show that I believe in what I,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:19:30.851000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,the banned troll is always and forevermore victorious once again,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T02:56:33.793000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Are we sure it passes the 1 hour test?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:38:58.860000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, I don't think ascii art should count as pure text, even though technically it is. Also I did say ""single prompt""..",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:31:21.135000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"within the year? something that would feel extortionary, probably above 150k mana / $100. I’d have to think about it tho",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:20:02.687000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"@agentydragon I bought into this market when it said ""BY"" June, and you've repeated it again here by mistake. It's misle",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-07T06:49:26.876000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",i sold a bit because i dont like dogs,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:41:14.623000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Who is ""firm on how they intend to resolve""? Rai's most recent comment says, ""yes i'd be super happy to just transfer t",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-01T06:05:42.835000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"sorry for delay. I think I’d guarantee another episode for $300, if you really want to finance it! +note that price may ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:33:45.429000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"If you're literally just reading out market prices I'm not sure that qualifies as ""original content"".",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T08:24:04.717000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"For anyone confused why people are mad, +this is what the page looked like on March 26 +. +The title was changed from ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-22T18:09:15.881000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,A year to basically completely revamp a product in charge of >$160B/year revenue is ridiculously fast,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-19T19:00:52.547000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I'd buy some YES in this market if Leagues were changed to solely focus on predictive profit,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:52:08.281000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Ok maybe I’m just brainfoggy rn but I can’t spot the error,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:55:33.646000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"much appreciated! I sold my YES at -3297 a few days ago. +Imo this should resolve NA regardless. Most traders here bet ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:26:12.817000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,All 3 of these are hilarious. A+. You have my confidence in YES.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:38:54.291000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I guess this comes down to how the market should be resolved. Technically, both of the stated resolution criteria (promo",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T02:56:02.615000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"the person I can most easily imagine paying this is +. I'm not gonna spend time seeking funding though because that con",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T17:38:01.831000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I did not understand that using tools + engines would be allowed since this makes the whole thing WAY less impressive. H,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-13T06:30:29.201000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I don't think it will be that hard to determine whether the GPT-4 aspect matters. There are basically 3 options: +He mad",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:17:55.323000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If people are holding expecting market fluctuations, that's one thing, but if you are saying this market is priced 15-20",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-17T14:15:19.006000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,It would be more interesting to ask if the model used for Bing either has >50% more parameters (the jump from GPT-2 to G,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:48:43.341000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,It’s way too late for that unfortunately. This is now the second most traded market in Manifold history so if you wanna ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-03T19:01:23.424000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I think my human brain did imagine at first that the person was climbing a small number of stories and looking down into,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T19:42:51.737000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I'd agree but I didn't make 154 losses on that trade, nor did I have 155 profit before! I sold those shares at the price",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T01:56:55.222000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Your right markets shouldn't be able to, as you've put it, hard fork. My solution to prevent this from happening again, ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-28T00:17:59.561000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I misspoke; these were Yes shares that I sold.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:53:05.419000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought my first NO at 43% and never above 50%. There is still plenty of money to be made here with some smart limit or,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-04T17:45:45.849000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Trying to give a breakdown on my understanding of this market because I might write a more extended blog post on this to,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-01T06:06:46.485000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"actually, $150 limited time offer this week only",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T21:00:30.060000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"to me +bard.google.com + provides it's response of it's not available in your region yet!!",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:38:46.459000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"lots of complicated thoughts here +happy to guarantee a payment to MMP $150 from Manifold, less to pay for a marginal po",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:44:22.012000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yep, selling my position as well. I have no doubt this will be resolved NO due to a technicality on the way you interact",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:16:43.706000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought a lot of yes but sold it again after re-reading the announcement. the requirement is that you can conversate wi,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T00:46:32.993000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, all the errors from o3 that I've seen on tricksy questions like that are quite human-like. See also FAQ5. When in ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-30T18:28:52.123000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Kenshin is 99% confident + of a February release, so get those 5x EV gains betting February up on + .",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T22:49:50.689000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I am planning to train a transformer model to play chess, and traders here might be interested in guessing what its Elo ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T22:38:45.906000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,for remaining ambiguity: it doesn't strike me as super obvious that the average street walker could answer that either? ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-08T03:11:03.299000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Apple and Google Podcasts are the only platforms to resolve yes?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2024-01-26T14:12:42.184000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,📢I have given a poll to manifold staff. Should know in 24 hours to resolve this.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T20:25:44.839000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"wow, how I wasn't aware? What do you mean by what behaviors and markets are acceptable?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-29T23:23:22.040000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Enjoy the shares! I've really enjoyed my 43 minutes in this market.,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-30T23:44:27.314000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I sold at -M3297 profit - half my portfolio gone - after betting on an event that had already happened 😬,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:48:37.607000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I think based on the description this should resolve no? But originally based on the title I bought yes, so this market ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T11:29:06.308000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I think we have different mental models of the general populace. I don’t think most people would struggle to figure out ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-27T19:00:49.725000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"What makes something a chatbot? You used to be able to do, on Google: +[who is barack obama] +Barack Hussein Obama II (",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T03:00:57.402000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Ok guys. A little bit of housekeeping. +I plan to report resolve it as a YES if it's on the frontpage of a major news o",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T10:47:29.709000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"A few ideas off the top of my head that I'd expect LLMs to fail where someone off the street would succeed: +What were ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T18:15:26.427000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Short term market set up for this tighter time frame: +https://manifold.markets/JohnRoxton/will-twitter-suffer-a-major-o",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:08:00.310000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought and sold around 98.5% myself getting some profit. +I sold all the no as I think this should resolve as yes now.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T16:51:11.548000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Oh I'm sure it is hallucination. There's no reason its training data or prompt would include such information about itse,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T21:04:06.400000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"There's a spectrum of answers of increasing correctness and it's a bit of a judgment call where the ""egregiously wrong"" ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-17T20:37:16.236000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Summarizing the issue with ""by"" vs ""at"", correct me if this summary is wrong: The original question title was ""Will Goog",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:53:49.112000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"not everyone's first language is English, so buy at your own risk. The direct translation in their native language of by",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-05T16:26:13.292000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I'm sure I'm biased, though, as + points out, this was my understanding since before I bought No. +My opinion is at lea",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-14T07:25:06.845000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Trader bonuses are capped at 100 traders = 500 mana = $5. It used to be double, or $10.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-06T17:09:02.446000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","that would be great motivation, but unfortunately I have my own reasons to think they won't release it before the EoM, s",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T23:35:22.850000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I'm leaving this market open for trading a bit longer but I'm considering the deadline for prompts to have passed. So at,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:29:37.916000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Are you saying it's mispriced 15-20% and that it should be 5-10)? It's a little confusing because 5-10% could mean it's ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-15T23:46:47.461000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Unsure of what other people think or what the metrics reflect, but from a personal experience I went from using manifold",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T22:22:00.326000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I can't believe this market is still active. I exited weeks ago. Like, after the title change, still NONE of you know ho",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:51:30.953000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"It's the same for me, the leaderboard seems much more meaningful than leagues and it's unfortunate that it's been deemp",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T17:56:28.218000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,This feature has radically changed the way I use Manifold for the better from a user experience perspective. I can’t get,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T23:56:43.035000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,You must be new to manifold markets then. Most markets here don't get resolved in the spirit of the market but on the mi,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:03:03.957000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I also think some people are holding YES or NO in expectation of market fluctuations, rather than expectations of resolu",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T23:21:24.914000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I just tried out GPT-4 via ChatGPT Plus.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-16T23:05:43.048000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If it turns out to be some intermediate model, this market resolves based on whether it's ""closer"" to GPT-3 and its deri",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T10:45:30.591000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,but I don't after all! i sold and it's back to +1 so idgi,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T22:59:47.982000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Resolving YES now is not appropriate, because it does not fulfill the requirements of it being generally available. Hypo",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d8eb5dea5deeeba36498087e3f2aded544140172 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,244 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-18T06:17:04.487000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I do not care about traders' opportunity costs or prevailing interest rates. People worried about opportunity costs shou,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:16:43.706000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought a lot of yes but sold it again after re-reading the announcement. the requirement is that you can conversate wi,YES,NO,False,True,71.7834,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T17:53:21.552000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Any concerns before I resolve this to YES?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T03:51:29.634000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"This is similar to the ASCII Art idea: +This doesn’t really have any bearing on the market, but I thought some of you mi",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T15:17:58.167000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I think Predict is doing a great job running this market, just want to give them kudos for that. I'm going to watch WWDC",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T11:31:34.573000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Source: a drunk teenager kept asking me if he could give me a kiss today. I think an LLM would do better than this guy, ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T02:56:33.793000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Are we sure it passes the 1 hour test?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:20:02.687000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"@agentydragon I bought into this market when it said ""BY"" June, and you've repeated it again here by mistake. It's misle",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,230.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T17:05:56.875000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4? +The question is not did AI beat all chess engines.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:54:33.077000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Ok yeah, this one is pretty bad, seems like ChatGPT just totally misinterpreted the problem to ask about when the juggle",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-14T19:22:34.111000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Totally agree with elmo here - making super clear unambiguous markets seems really hard and you're definitely doing your,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-07T06:49:26.876000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",i sold a bit because i dont like dogs,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,75.2011,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T23:56:43.035000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,You must be new to manifold markets then. Most markets here don't get resolved in the spirit of the market but on the mi,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:03:03.957000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I also think some people are holding YES or NO in expectation of market fluctuations, rather than expectations of resolu",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,245.4715,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T18:46:26.575000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I wonder if chatbots will ever be allowed to take screenshots when they determine they need to perform visual analysis o,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T17:54:45.183000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Candidates: +Duct tape ham sandwich: +Alice has a stack of 5 ham sandwiches with no condiments. She takes her walking st",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T21:00:30.060000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"to me +bard.google.com + provides it's response of it's not available in your region yet!!",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-03-05T01:16:50.733000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I’ve updated to include Google Podcasts as well. I sort of just wanted the higher barrier for someone to have to go thro,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-03T02:14:56.234000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"The pattern that has consistently emerged in online discourse, as well as many comments here, is that LLMs are very clos",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-17T21:46:10.854000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,This morning Isaac decided to spam post on all my markets lying about me. I pondered for a bit why someone would do that,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T07:25:36.608000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I think it should. It has its own website, yes, but it's still the same core product. The markets that drive it all are ",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-16T01:49:14.808000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Will he publish anything significant or interesting? 2e-4. +Will he win a single stockfish fight? 0.3",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:33:45.429000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"If you're literally just reading out market prices I'm not sure that qualifies as ""original content"".",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-19T19:00:52.547000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I'd buy some YES in this market if Leagues were changed to solely focus on predictive profit,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T15:10:16.128000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I don't want to make an account and stuff, but on my behalf can somebody ask o3 a series of questions based on sub-lexic",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-16T22:26:39.392000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If true, this could explain why it seems to have a more consistent personality, and a more, shall we say, ""interesting"" ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T20:04:19.090000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I hate the Leviesque resolution criteria.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T20:41:34.434000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"From the Verge: +""Within hours, Twitter Spaces was at least partially removed from the platform, with users saying they ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:53:05.419000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought my first NO at 43% and never above 50%. There is still plenty of money to be made here with some smart limit or,NO,NO,True,True,97026.1358,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-13T11:09:27.886000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",it has to be people that are not directly/indirectly involved with development of GPT-4,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:41:13.773000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Right, this is another meta-trick-question. There's a well-known trick question where the boy and his father are brought",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:53:49.112000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"not everyone's first language is English, so buy at your own risk. The direct translation in their native language of by",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T02:56:02.615000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"the person I can most easily imagine paying this is +. I'm not gonna spend time seeking funding though because that con",NO,YES,False,True,1748.9004,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T02:21:08.431000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Everyone don't forget that a requirement for this market to resolve NO is that o3 also doesn't hallucinate worse than a ,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:32:32.989000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,yeah wasn't very excellent of me that i didn't integrate all the comments where i tightened the resolution criteria into,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-19T16:23:44.472000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,if Google assistant becomes available to talk to via the Google search form (with ability to have a multi-turn back-and-,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:48:37.607000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I think based on the description this should resolve no? But originally based on the title I bought yes, so this market ",YES,NO,False,True,180.3959,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-04-28T22:09:17.251000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Oh snap my league looks like a fun group!! + and + both there to shadow me and snatch away the marginal mana caused by",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:38:58.860000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, I don't think ascii art should count as pure text, even though technically it is. Also I did say ""single prompt""..",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T10:45:30.591000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,but I don't after all! i sold and it's back to +1 so idgi,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,86.1686,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-11T01:46:35.771000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Wow. This market seems too high,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T10:39:05.141000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"is it more complicated than the surgeon either being the dad or mistaken, or am I falling for the trick?",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-24T21:10:34.224000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"With that rant out of the way, there are plenty of other reasons to visit Manifold besides leagues and leaderboards. I l",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:20:55.330000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, I'm wondering if ""person on the street"" is just a bad benchmark to use, either for being too low a bar or for bein",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:44:22.012000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yep, selling my position as well. I have no doubt this will be resolved NO due to a technicality on the way you interact",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-03-18T16:03:28.198000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,What probability would you bet NO at?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-14T07:25:06.845000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Trader bonuses are capped at 100 traders = 500 mana = $5. It used to be double, or $10.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,8673.9088,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:29:57.975000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Right, the idea is to not give the humans an unfair advantage. That would be awesome if you can help determine the best ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",NO,NO,True,True,60.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T10:51:22.870000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If it turns out to be some intermediate model, this market resolves based on whether it's ""closer"" to GPT-3 and its deri",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-07T09:08:22.423000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The fundamental reason all AI predictions fail is that gpt is Indians so it needs to remain obscure to ensure nobody not,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:40:51.415000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"that makes sense! I notice there's an OOM+ difference between 150k mana and $100; is that intentional? +I'd be happy to",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T00:46:32.993000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, all the errors from o3 that I've seen on tricksy questions like that are quite human-like. See also FAQ5. When in ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T14:04:50.071000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I won't solve to YES due to Spaces.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:43:49.243000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I have had access to the Google Search experiment for a month already and commented on it somewhere below and I am still,NO,NO,True,True,93634.1124,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-19T16:24:56.251000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"To clarify, chatbot has to be usable via keyboard from a PC",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T23:21:24.914000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I just tried out GPT-4 via ChatGPT Plus.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T22:59:47.982000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Resolving YES now is not appropriate, because it does not fulfill the requirements of it being generally available. Hypo",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:03:27.822000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I would resolve this market as +NO +. As of May 12, 2023, there is no public announcement from Google that they plan to",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:01:09.795000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,For the record I bought my large NO holdings after I wrote and posted my above argument to show that I believe in what I,NO,NO,True,True,138.437,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:17:55.323000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If people are holding expecting market fluctuations, that's one thing, but if you are saying this market is priced 15-20",NO,NO,True,True,9449.3898,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T13:16:04.275000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I can't see how a waitlist counts. ""Not something you have to get whitelisted for""",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:26:59.622000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,btw you can just say 'resolves based on the spirit of the market' instead of having a list of fixed criteria. you lose t,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-05T16:26:13.292000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I'm sure I'm biased, though, as + points out, this was my understanding since before I bought No. +My opinion is at lea",NO,NO,True,True,110.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-06T16:45:33.322000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,This needs more specifics. Google already embeds BERT into the back end of search.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T14:04:33.190000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The edit wasn't the problem. The problem in this case (and also in most other cases) was that the author wrote in variou,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-01T06:05:42.835000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"sorry for delay. I think I’d guarantee another episode for $300, if you really want to finance it! +note that price may ",NO,YES,False,True,2238.6829,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:13:34.641000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"profile picture +You are a participant in a betting market or prediction markets platform called manifold, and you have ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-28T19:56:33.692000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,I think that would end up being pretty similar to this one,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:07:38.996000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"That is not necessary for the resolution, however.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T18:47:36.976000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I sold my position. It seems that if the current headlines on a 15 hour outage are not considered enough, it’s less than",YES,NO,False,True,56.8951,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2024-01-26T14:12:42.184000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,📢I have given a poll to manifold staff. Should know in 24 hours to resolve this.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T08:19:08.763000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, seeing ""skyscraper roofs below"" (I had missed that) means this detour is somewhere between 15 minutes and an hour ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T01:54:45.427000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"My main point was what I said at the start: The edit was not the problem. This wasn't just in reply to you, this was in ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:57:08.173000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I got o3 to answer in what seems an almost superhuman way by adding ""Don't just go by vibes. Give like probabilities or ",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T08:24:04.717000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"For anyone confused why people are mad, +this is what the page looked like on March 26 +. +The title was changed from ",NO,YES,False,True,3190.3473,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T07:35:24.391000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Correct on all fronts! I’ve subscribed on my podcast app; thanks for sharing!,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-06T17:09:02.446000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","that would be great motivation, but unfortunately I have my own reasons to think they won't release it before the EoM, s",NO,NO,True,True,100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:47:24.720000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","do you wanna comment on model being moe v dense, or even multiple modalities?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-19T14:52:00.312000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"i see that one was addressed below, so what about this one: they state that Siri will have an option to interface with G",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T01:56:55.222000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Your right markets shouldn't be able to, as you've put it, hard fork. My solution to prevent this from happening again, ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1446.5204,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T22:22:00.326000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I can't believe this market is still active. I exited weeks ago. Like, after the title change, still NONE of you know ho",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,136.1686,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T19:09:54.523000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,ah yes that would be the one he placed a bet in lol,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-22T04:23:37.884000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"Best estimate of the Elon +time dilation factor is 3.8 +, so 1–2 months translates to 3.8–7.6 months, or Aug 15th–Dec 8",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,136.1686,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:43:18.418000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Yes, I value mana well below the purchase price. +Also, $100 might actually be too low. I’ll think more and try to get ",NO,YES,False,True,1838.6829,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T21:25:29.186000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Yeah, that's how it works at the moment.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T19:42:51.737000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I'd agree but I didn't make 154 losses on that trade, nor did I have 155 profit before! I sold those shares at the price",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,86.1686,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:29:37.916000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Are you saying it's mispriced 15-20% and that it should be 5-10)? It's a little confusing because 5-10% could mean it's ,NO,NO,True,True,9449.3898,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:04:31.503000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,Idk. My monthly profit right now is soaring but my league profits seem to have plateaued. Trump getting indicted had alm,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-03-27T13:43:54.207000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Searle brought us the Chinese Room and now OpenAI the Indian Room,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-31T05:55:00.215000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",lol there’s no way this chess engine will be any good,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-29T22:37:59.483000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Update from Kenshin: +The engine is currently 11k lines of python code + the python-chess library for board state analys",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-07T13:01:32.765000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"no, I already had whiplash on this market and with all the controversy wouldn't count on the most solid and specific of ",YES,NO,False,True,136.1686,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T11:29:06.308000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I think we have different mental models of the general populace. I don’t think most people would struggle to figure out ,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:53:12.069000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"That was only for the sub question +If the partnership is made regarding some new product that is not called Siri + then",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-12T13:17:48.323000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"While I agree that leagues in their current form are great for many users, for people who care more about long term mark",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-15T23:46:47.461000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Unsure of what other people think or what the metrics reflect, but from a personal experience I went from using manifold",YES,YES,True,True,860.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T04:46:22.512000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I don't think this is that contrived, it's basically just a larger scale counting task. This one for example is more str",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-03-31T15:37:19.726000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Here's my favorite quote by ai. +Every improvement in living standards was when libs died. Rome collapsed and killed peo",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-29T23:23:22.040000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Enjoy the shares! I've really enjoyed my 43 minutes in this market.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:18:07.183000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"""Has to be accessible from google.com homepage."" From the description.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T20:07:02.178000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Note that announcement is not enough, there has to be at least early access for some outsiders before March 31st.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:52:08.281000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Ok maybe I’m just brainfoggy rn but I can’t spot the error,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-13T23:43:50.214000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,You mean literally 10 people on the street? Yes. Any consensus on the best question to use?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:31:21.135000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"within the year? something that would feel extortionary, probably above 150k mana / $100. I’d have to think about it tho",NO,NO,True,True,1838.6829,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-22T18:09:15.881000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,A year to basically completely revamp a product in charge of >$160B/year revenue is ridiculously fast,NO,NO,True,True,49.0461,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T11:37:41.713000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",you gotta prime it in previous context to give specific numbers and if it doesn't then enforce that context harder,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T20:26:43.573000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I strongly believe that GPT4 does not provide a material advantage over stockfish. But I don't want to bet on whether ke,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-25T21:47:40.294000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I started using bing in 2021. And I don’t really care for the chatbot.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-01T06:06:46.485000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"actually, $150 limited time offer this week only",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1999.6951,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",NO,NO,True,True,1748.9004,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T22:08:51.006000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Well, I'm still not sure. I don't want this to come down to a trick question technicality.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:22:33.454000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,See my comment below where he makes other statements that more strongly lean NO though,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:51:30.953000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"It's the same for me, the leaderboard seems much more meaningful than leagues and it's unfortunate that it's been deemp",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-30T18:20:11.442000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","After this result was posted, I have been informed in the weeks thereafter by several people, via DM, that there are at ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:19:30.851000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,the banned troll is always and forevermore victorious once again,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:10:32.675000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Idk, that's an inference, but that doesn't matter because the market creator's statements are pretty direct. Apple needs",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:38:54.291000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I guess this comes down to how the market should be resolved. Technically, both of the stated resolution criteria (promo",NO,YES,False,True,725.8427,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-13T06:30:29.201000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I don't think it will be that hard to determine whether the GPT-4 aspect matters. There are basically 3 options: +He mad",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:20:48.467000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,imo its not great to make fake podcasts that exist just to resolve markets like this,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T20:25:44.839000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"wow, how I wasn't aware? What do you mean by what behaviors and markets are acceptable?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T10:47:29.709000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"A few ideas off the top of my head that I'd expect LLMs to fail where someone off the street would succeed: +What were ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-18T05:39:32.098000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I've stated that I won't push it past March 31, even if he says it's coming out the very next day. +https://manifold.mar",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-14T07:54:29.126000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Lol, a little too late now that I’ve sold my stakes 😂",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-03T19:01:23.424000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I think my human brain did imagine at first that the person was climbing a small number of stories and looking down into,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:28:02.581000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Ooh, this may count as failure on the sandwich duct tape one: +https://chatgpt.com/share/683b2cfd-3314-800d-a7b0-81d989",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:47:05.688000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"(i am sticking with the ""at end of june"" mostly because i hope that'll give time for the bot to more closely either meet",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T22:38:45.906000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,for remaining ambiguity: it doesn't strike me as super obvious that the average street walker could answer that either? ,NO,YES,False,True,94.9937,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-25T20:20:31.569000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Brilliant idea: a LLM that tries to convince you that it won the chess game, even when it didn't.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:38:46.459000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"lots of complicated thoughts here +happy to guarantee a payment to MMP $150 from Manifold, less to pay for a marginal po",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T21:15:12.072000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,there’s nothing convoluted about asking if 20 feathers are lighter than 20 lbs of bricks.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T17:05:51.254000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,... Seems to work fine in Spanish using ChatGPT and Google Translate as a metric. That's up to 40 million people in the ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:47:19.260000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,~60% is where I am selling out because I feel Google has about 60% of a chatbot included in search. Maybe it could be as,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T16:51:47.548000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I think if it uses GPT-4 for more complicated or challenging queries, that should count.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T07:56:41.207000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, o3 has no trouble with that one (it says ""one""). Same for Gemini (""two words""). Claude has more fun with it: ""Exac",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-22T01:43:51.052000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"About the timeline sure, but it seems the steel plate exists and others are estimating timelines that would still put it",NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T17:38:01.831000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I did not understand that using tools + engines would be allowed since this makes the whole thing WAY less impressive. H,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T16:26:05.156000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Having listened to the first five episodes can you tell us if you think the market is well priced currently?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:48:43.341000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,It’s way too late for that unfortunately. This is now the second most traded market in Manifold history so if you wanna ,NO,NO,True,True,35599.288,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:55:33.646000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"much appreciated! I sold my YES at -3297 a few days ago. +Imo this should resolve NA regardless. Most traders here bet ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,3693.516,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-16T06:04:35.845000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",will check it out - thank you for sharing,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T16:33:05.087000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Some related markets of Twitter as a business. +I think that 47% probability in 45 days is an incredibly high probabili",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T16:51:11.548000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Oh I'm sure it is hallucination. There's no reason its training data or prompt would include such information about itse,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-01T12:38:13.245000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Does the chatbot have to be accessible from the Google homepage to resolve Yes? What if Google releases a separate/beta ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-15T00:35:11.543000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I ain't betting, but shutting down microservices to discover which ones are needled seems like a recipe for this market ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T21:36:48.476000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"if they remove the promotion, i'd probably resolve No.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:41:10.063000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought in at 97% or so, thinking I was betting on an event which had just occured. This market wiped out my all time p",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,3693.516,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-30T23:44:27.314000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I sold at -M3297 profit - half my portfolio gone - after betting on an event that had already happened 😬,YES,YES,True,True,3297.6659,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T21:04:06.400000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"There's a spectrum of answers of increasing correctness and it's a bit of a judgment call where the ""egregiously wrong"" ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T17:50:18.834000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I'm trying the sandwich duct tape question again in a temporary chat. If I nudge it, it ends up demonstrating understand",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-02-17T22:58:56.983000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"I know nothing here on a technical level, except that there was high confidence this would happen last year and it didn’",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-04T17:45:45.849000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Trying to give a breakdown on my understanding of this market because I might write a more extended blog post on this to,YES,YES,True,True,46.529,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-17T14:15:19.006000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,It would be more interesting to ask if the model used for Bing either has >50% more parameters (the jump from GPT-2 to G,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-22T08:22:14.987000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Or never release a GPT-4 at all.,YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:25:00.990000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Ooh, um, I think I need to see an example?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-17T01:26:14.075000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","in my opinion that lowers the chance of him winning. +Not using engines at all is like using an abstract thinking of a g",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-25T02:14:25.123000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I’m a bing user. I use bing Every day.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-17T20:37:16.236000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Summarizing the issue with ""by"" vs ""at"", correct me if this summary is wrong: The original question title was ""Will Goog",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T22:49:50.689000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I am planning to train a transformer model to play chess, and traders here might be interested in guessing what its Elo ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T19:35:38.174000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Can you link to one of these posts? A major outage is different from any outage.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-08T03:11:03.299000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Apple and Google Podcasts are the only platforms to resolve yes?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T15:43:01.881000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,ohhh good point! I had forgotten I could specifically choose a model there. I had only ever done the hidden model rating,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-27T19:00:49.725000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"What makes something a chatbot? You used to be able to do, on Google: +[who is barack obama] +Barack Hussein Obama II (",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T03:00:57.402000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Ok guys. A little bit of housekeeping. +I plan to report resolve it as a YES if it's on the frontpage of a major news o",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:48:01.885000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,too bad i didn't predict in advance it would attract so much volume,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T08:26:19.453000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society,NO,NO,True,True,2914.8006,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T18:15:26.427000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Short term market set up for this tighter time frame: +https://manifold.markets/JohnRoxton/will-twitter-suffer-a-major-o",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-01T16:04:16.610000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"has to be accessible from +google.com + homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google s",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-25T15:59:01.764000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,I kinda expect that the booster recovery plan starts with demonstrating a tightly controlled descent into the ocean at l,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:48:11.667000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I disagree, I don’t think it’s egregious. Citation: I was really confused when reading the question, and did not find th",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:08:00.310000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought and sold around 98.5% myself getting some profit. +I sold all the no as I think this should resolve as yes now.",NO,YES,False,True,26.1008,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T21:13:07.265000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"but if your using the platform now doesn't matter much to where you stand in six months, it can have the opposite effect",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T18:21:53.494000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I think this blog has an excellent in depth analysis of chess using instructGPT +https://blog.mathieuacher.com/GPTsChes",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-28T00:17:59.561000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I misspoke; these were Yes shares that I sold.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,93.0249,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T23:35:22.850000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I'm leaving this market open for trading a bit longer but I'm considering the deadline for prompts to have passed. So at,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:24:32.532000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Are you sure it got the right answer? The correct answer is the surgeon is the father, there's no problem",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T20:09:06.266000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Does o3 know that the tweet length limit was removed? What if Jim was reading +https://x.com/slatestarcodex/status/1886",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:41:43.480000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Maybe we should clarify that it has to work with a person off the street +out loud +. So blunders in a board game are p",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-26T21:51:12.423000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"[Deleted, posted on wrong market, sorry]",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:49:25.243000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I'm tentatively convinced that we should resolve YES based on this. I.e., I was wrong. I wanted to bet on NO but restrai",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T19:28:45.665000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I was pretty sure the answer turned out to be yes, there are single prompts for which o3 consistently falls on its face.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-30T18:28:52.123000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Kenshin is 99% confident + of a February release, so get those 5x EV gains betting February up on + .",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T17:56:28.218000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,This feature has radically changed the way I use Manifold for the better from a user experience perspective. I can’t get,NO,YES,False,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-07-01T11:53:38.523000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The market creator is active, you'll have to wait a bit :)",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-15T05:18:20.743000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","It's really not. People's complaints so far actually seem to be that I should do more interpretation, such as reviewing ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:26:12.817000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,All 3 of these are hilarious. A+. You have my confidence in YES.,YES,YES,True,True,5.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-16T23:05:43.048000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If it turns out to be some intermediate model, this market resolves based on whether it's ""closer"" to GPT-3 and its deri",YES,NO,False,False,,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T02:19:35.317000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,If you can find another two people willing to chip in I'm happy to split the cost (I assume you know who listens to it b,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:41:14.623000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Who is ""firm on how they intend to resolve""? Rai's most recent comment says, ""yes i'd be super happy to just transfer t",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,484.5867,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-13T10:57:33.817000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I will resolve once it is clear that GPT-4 has or has not been released before March 31st. This can be before March 31st,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:52:17.226000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",interesting. Did you have this talk sometime in the last 2-3ish months?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:31:08.062000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"interesting, it failed consistently for me when set to o3.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7a18487dfe382b19bdc7c27046ae3bea2fc32185 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,297 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-29T10:09:55.141000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the courage of + fails, when we f",flip,increase,False,True,1624.3841,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:35:06.379000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"if you sold your NO, the market went up, which is effectively like buying YES. Even if you've exited the market, any fur",flip,decrease,False,True,12713.1207,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2024-01-29T05:37:15.659000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"There are only so many ""non traditional"" women in the world and Destiny is on a quest to catch them all",increase,increase,True,True,410.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-04T04:39:31.940000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"Yeah, can vouch for Isaac being super trustworthy. Long record of accurate resolutions",increase,hold,False,True,170.8965,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-06-30T19:55:58.988000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,Looks like Manifold is still actively working on tools to automate identification of self-referential markets (i.e. whal,increase,decrease,False,True,893.916,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T19:52:11.768000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,But they would all know what pinky fingers are.,decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-29T18:53:16.407000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,What is the explanation for this?,hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,165.7194,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T15:33:41.367000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"the criteria for market resolution is: +Length of time was longer than 1hr +Major enough to be on the front page of majo",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:55:13.131000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I'm getting the same issue. Can't use the web version. Haven't tried the app.,flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-22T13:39:50.006000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MP oh that is a really good point! I need to think about that for a minute.,decrease,decrease,True,True,2979.9205,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:34:41.899000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,This is my current losses on the market. I really thought it was easy to break the streak. its not,flip,decrease,False,True,12271.1094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T19:57:12.939000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@Spindle it’s about him being irrational and the consequences of that. Thinking the market has ever priced this deal rig,hold,increase,False,True,8568.6835,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T05:58:33.771000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Spaces was down for longer than an hour from a ""legacy bug"". That should definitely count as a major outage. +https://fo",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:43:48.510000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I agree, we have all participated in the market with a different understanding of what was described. In this era, only ",decrease,decrease,True,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-12-07T23:13:11.079000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Do you guys not see the relationship between the Melina drama and this?,increase,decrease,False,True,270.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:38:34.300000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,It turned an AcCURATE PREDICTION into a lozz 4 me and a gain 4 u. Lookz like TREACHERY to me!!!!,hold,decrease,False,True,63800.9802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-02-10T17:49:27.576000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Various reports with videos of 90 minute to 5.5 hour drives without touching steering wheel or pedals. +https://www.you",hold,increase,False,True,3069.6169,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T11:04:34.894000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,This is egregious. Seems immediately obvious it is 2.,flip,increase,False,True,240.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:31:17.147000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Do you just go over the percentages displayed on various markets?!,decrease,hold,False,True,3.8728,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T17:36:22.327000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"@NivlacM + egregious is of course a relative term so I imagine something like a median human would be the baseline",decrease,hold,False,True,1088.1532,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T10:43:30.400000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"If the service of a feature is unavailable and we haven’t heard a prior announcement of it being discontinued, it meets ",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T20:28:56.146000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Printed M$ just by playing the spread. Why are you bozos selling YES for 2% only to push it up to 98% in one big spike? ,flip,decrease,False,True,416.3726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T09:10:45.748000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Do you have an opinion on whether this should Resolve N/A or Resolve NO? +I understand if you rather reserve your opini",hold,hold,True,True,40000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T19:47:22.370000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,this is what I've been saying all this time. There needs to be compelling evidence and so far there is none that isn't e,flip,decrease,False,True,84.6673,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:29:36.827000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,it’s definitely real. I got 5mins into this week’s ep,decrease,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:35:08.183000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"I assumed the due date was open to extension due to a combination of: + a) no stated deadline + b) the long dur",decrease,hold,False,True,72.5522,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:04:42.469000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Is there a world where this resolves YES and https://manifold.markets/SG/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-this-yea resolves NO,flip,decrease,False,True,244.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:00:38.045000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Considering the magnitude of problems and the number of people betting on this market because of those problems, a bit m",hold,decrease,False,True,1887.2279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-06T19:29:04.140000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"He presumably doesn't want to speak under oath for his deposition. I think twitter is right to not take ""I promise to do",hold,decrease,False,True,178.1005,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T16:08:06.542000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Want to do a challenge bet? I will let you choose the terms.,decrease,hold,False,True,18611.2197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-09T10:57:58.806000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Now that firstuserhere has 13k no-shares, he will most likely NOT end his streak and buying no-shares is a very safe inv",increase,flip,False,True,626.8203,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T07:30:05.143000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MP Interesting, thanks for this. Matt Levine has mentioned that consideration too. I might not be taking it seriously e",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:09:17.978000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,yeah im not actually doing it. said it just as a fun sentiment,flip,flip,True,True,12713.1207,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:53:26.985000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"same issue with mine, but it is what it is. + has decided. +I enjoyed my stay.",hold,decrease,False,True,40000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:29:22.016000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP My limit orders are at m1000 because the system won't let me place ones at m2000.,flip,hold,False,True,93.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:12:25.854000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh no, the criteria is for ""5 separate weeks""?",increase,decrease,False,True,1180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T04:07:09.718000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall that makes the market INVALID,hold,decrease,False,True,50627.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T23:53:55.176000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP his free cash all went away due to limit orders and his profit and portfolio numbers went much lower because they,flip,decrease,False,True,3944.1808,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T16:39:34.816000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"is the strict math answer 2? +I’m not trying to be difficult but 3D geometry can get weird and mathematics defines thing",increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T07:34:32.821000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,possibly. But it looks to me at this point that the users of Manifold pivoted them. Their current unique feature is that,decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T20:44:14.293000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"If I may make a case for YES here: I think this query satisfies the letter and spirit of your criteria. GPT-5 Thinking """,hold,increase,False,True,650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:52:40.930000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"interesting suggestion. I’d have to consider the finances, though, you know",increase,decrease,False,True,260.7513,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-04-25T13:41:07.378000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"So who do you think will be doing the vandalism? +If people who book a ride do you think this won't be detected and char",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:31:49.666000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Endlezz clarifications ARE NEEDED cuz u have previouzly indicated u will not resolve NO if the judge is a SCALLYWAG and ,flip,decrease,False,True,66787.158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:45:45.550000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Yeah it also suggests looking at manufacturer tags, id numbers, etc. to gather proof of the defect. +Like if you were a ",decrease,increase,False,True,1198.9906,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-21T00:24:04.018000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Going by previous comments https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-delaware-judge-order-elon-mu#qVyG8JW7C3wiuMQuV9e0 the mar,increase,hold,False,True,909.7835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T05:16:19.254000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,You mean like if the context gets so large context rot sets in?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1088.1532,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:14:09.424000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"nope, profit graphs still don't load, displayed trader payouts on market resolve are still incorrect and i can't see my ",flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-04-10T21:44:29.653000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Is destiny even a sadist sexually?,decrease,hold,False,True,92206.8812,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:44:45.353000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@Spindle about M$12000 of the most delicious tranche you've ever seen.,increase,increase,True,True,834.7938,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:45:18.263000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Yeah, IIRC you said that any Delaware judge (initial ruling or appeal) would count. That was someone else's suggestion w",hold,hold,True,True,1878.004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-20T11:18:02.126000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@jack October though, which is after the close date for this market. @BTE, can you please clarify on your plan here? It ",hold,decrease,False,True,795.0118,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-11-17T15:53:49.701000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Mana and profits are virtual things that people care about too. +People have in fact spent real money to buy more mana t",hold,hold,True,True,494.1813,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T22:59:33.234000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,nice one - thanks for the update David! 🙌,hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T19:34:30.201000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Here's another post of the same information, from one of the contributors who apparently thought The Spectator did a bad",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-29T18:11:50.687000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,Have you heard of there was another batch of invites yet?,hold,hold,True,True,69999.4221,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-10T11:39:05.610000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Aww, I missed the chance to say ""but fortunately all of its mistakes have cancelled out""",increase,hold,False,True,11226.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-15T20:33:34.598000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,60% seemz high given the inherent possibility of latent SNOUT TROUGHING that iz likely 2 ocur,hold,decrease,False,True,62037.158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:46:36.452000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Poll question on the topic (in general, not specific to this market): https://manifold.markets/jack/poll-how-likely-are-",increase,hold,False,True,200.7419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T10:27:24.617000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Spindle Obviously you can waste your money on whatever you want, but shit like this destroys the community. This questi",decrease,hold,False,True,7252.0905,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T07:47:28.010000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"""Not being congruent"" can be a pretty high bar and is therefore not necessarily the right way to think about it when jus",increase,decrease,False,True,51.1552,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:23:23.580000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"the really based maneuver would be to make 4 episodes, get everyone to bet it up to 90%, then bet it down to 10% without",decrease,decrease,True,True,65.7663,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-22T07:52:24.964000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MP irrelevant, this market only cares about the initial ruling by the Delaware court. + +Do you mean the US Supreme Co",decrease,hold,False,True,2979.9205,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-09T07:54:37.036000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"""Think carefully before answering. How many tennis balls are in this photo?"" +It twists itself into a pretzel doing imag",increase,decrease,False,True,11225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:01:53.152000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Btw. selling half my portfolio to buy NO here is pretty hard with the portfolio page not updating at all and still showi,increase,decrease,False,True,1644.2279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-17T06:24:47.723000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Dittman was discussing the inner workings of SpaceX with Alex Jones the other day! If he's some rando on Twitter who 'ju,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T14:06:03.141000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"I don’t understand what your point is here. You’re saying that if you ask a different question, you get a different answ",increase,decrease,False,True,4000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-02-09T23:41:40.191000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,I believe this should resolve yes based on the description. It doesn’t stipulate that a certain amount of rides must occ,increase,increase,True,True,12163.7563,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-03T21:35:11.062000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Is this symmetric? +I.e., does it only resolve YES after the appeals process has run its course? +Or does it just requir",increase,decrease,False,True,558.8817,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T15:04:44.098000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Would you mind explaining how it would mean effectively quitting manifold?,hold,hold,True,True,1887.2279,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:21:24.841000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"For some reason I now can't see my position here, but other markets are working.",decrease,decrease,True,True,45.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T06:50:08.236000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Who will be the top 3 traders in total profit on this market? https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-make-the-largest-pr,increase,hold,False,True,2803.7201,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:32:07.390000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,For real?! Weird. Should have just waited for it to resolve.,flip,decrease,False,True,749.5619,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T18:32:31.535000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,This is an alignment problem though. It's not about intelligence it's about compliance.,decrease,hold,False,True,1692.551,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T01:24:26.953000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Back now for me, but looking like that was over an hour if 713 EST was the right start time. I was still locked out at 8",increase,decrease,False,True,541.8775,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-22T12:58:12.933000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,Very odd that this market has not moved from Dec 10 to 20 even tho the number of days remaining has halved.,increase,decrease,False,True,872.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T22:48:46.601000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@jfjurchen I suggest requiring a brief description of the reason for any update to closing date of resolution criteria. ,flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T17:05:47.143000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"If only I had cancelled my limit orders before hitting SELL!!! I executed at 40, 35, 30, 25, 20 … basically everything I",flip,decrease,False,True,21065.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T16:57:39.834000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"IMO + should just take the L and stop throwing good money after bad. No offense",decrease,decrease,True,True,534.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:32.610000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I wonder if this podcast was made for this market. Ep 1 is exactly 1sec longer than it needs to be,decrease,decrease,True,True,18.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:38:46.459000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"lots of complicated thoughts here +happy to guarantee a payment to MMP $150 from Manifold, less to pay for a marginal po",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T19:18:41.017000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Waymo had safety drivers (e.g. in the driver's seat, not the passenger's one) at the beginning as well. This is also wha",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-25T01:59:42.902000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,(I originally answered here but want to keep all my musing collected in one place so I'm going to link to my answer here,hold,hold,True,True,67.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T08:41:33.204000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Not sure if you’d consider this egregious, but it gives pretty bad driving directions. It will often hallucinate streets",hold,increase,False,True,55.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:02:02.167000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Find me a legal opinion thAt disagrees with me. And I was pretty explicit in a previous comment in this thread that I DO,decrease,increase,False,True,18611.2197,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T21:09:46.457000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,it's not conclusive until we have video of them together with multiple eye witnesses testifying it's not AI generated.,flip,hold,False,True,6894.1865,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:32:01.976000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Take your time. Finishing the fixes tomorrow would be perfect for my bet here!,flip,increase,False,True,230.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-22T02:24:21.424000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I don't click links like that am I about to get rick rolled?,flip,hold,False,True,107.1546,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-16T16:56:29.552000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"They said below that it has to be something significant enough to be reported on by tech news sites, which this doesn't ",flip,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:30:32.660000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,why don't you just break the streak? wtf,flip,decrease,False,True,124.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T18:25:23.333000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Yep after reading all your comments I agree I should have just gone for the simpler option. I don't want to revert it al,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T06:04:49.702000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"agree that this is relevant. If you have a YES position in this market, you'd be a fool not to bet NO and increase the o",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-17T12:16:12.809000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"they are both in open relationships, they had some good talks, doesn't seem that unlikely that they would hook up at lea",decrease,hold,False,True,608.5271,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T15:36:22.533000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"In case it comes down to the line, California's time must be used to determine a resolution for this market. +I'm thinki",flip,decrease,False,True,198.9039,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:13:12.367000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Also why aren't you betting more,decrease,increase,False,True,257.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T23:42:14.966000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE The main reason would be the usual one: litigation is long, annoying, expensive, and never 100% certain, especially",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-02T22:16:14.546000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"She has no position in this market. The tweet is real and still up, evidence points in one direction",increase,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-09T15:35:38.389000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Have I got a market for you...,flip,hold,False,True,34.0581,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:07:39.916000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,does api matter for the purposes of this market?,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T11:22:22.450000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"for what it's worth, since I'm probably one you had in mind as thinking bribes are unethical, I'll just mention: +(i) I ",decrease,hold,False,True,6129.8231,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:55:23.050000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Will @BTE go on tilt and resolve the market early if another yahoo comes along and destroys his plans? Will he resolve t,increase,decrease,False,True,834.7938,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:12:45.993000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,what the heck how did this happen with no one noticing,decrease,decrease,True,True,257.043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:11:32.993000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Correct. This market is about “specific performance”.,flip,hold,False,True,28781.863,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T18:11:05.168000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"I agree, it doesn't universally work, and it feels unnerving, but the goal isn't to hurt that person, rather to attack a",hold,hold,True,True,1257.3907,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T23:34:52.693000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Possibly there's some restriction on immediately spending purchased mana. Like ""Establishing a 10-day waiting period fo",hold,decrease,False,True,303.916,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-05-21T01:31:03.934000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall that outcome is not possible at this stage of the process. This type of lawsuit can’t get settled. It’s z,hold,increase,False,True,45.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T14:54:34.002000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"everyone said that after ""the market"" where galen spent a few thousand +Looks to me like we got a 10x increase in about ",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:39:03.381000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,But this markets close date is three months earlier than the other one's 🤔,flip,decrease,False,True,264.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:51:37.371000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,i sense a controversial resolution incoming,flip,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-23T01:06:09.058000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Someone seems to be having fun: +Elon Musk on Twitter: ""Wasn’t Twitter supposed to die by now or something … ?"" / Twitte",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:09:16.354000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,It's running perfectly for me at the moment fingers crossed....but the last hour I couldnt get anything to load,flip,decrease,False,True,9.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:31:21.135000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"within the year? something that would feel extortionary, probably above 150k mana / $100. I’d have to think about it tho",increase,decrease,False,True,1838.6829,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:41:41.075000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,I have a strange feeling that Manifold has died and we just haven’t been told yet. I hope I am wrong.,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T16:27:04.224000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MattP @spindle guys, it took me a month to really figure this thing out and I was crushing it the last 4 days thinking ",decrease,decrease,True,True,7252.0905,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T10:19:51.956000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@Spindle This is going to be the easiest money ever. Still a dick move.,decrease,increase,False,True,7252.0905,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-10T19:30:19.709000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,I tried it with a tea cup instead of a mug and got the same error. It says to drape it over the bottom bar and it will s,increase,increase,True,True,1649.9449,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:18:14.194000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Twitter Spaces outage was also on the front page of techmeme: +https://www.techmeme.com/221216/h0810",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:45:08.945000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I mean the description doesn't say that it has to be a good podcast hahaha,decrease,hold,False,True,1557.043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:10:26.016000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Another gem from the recent hearing showing Musk (stupidly) has little respect for the court. +Delaware Chancery Judge K",decrease,increase,False,True,18611.2197,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-28T12:17:57.570000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE gotcha, so if Twitter wins ""specific performance"" on the initial litigation but eventually loses on appeal, the mar",increase,hold,False,True,661.7938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T13:01:00.973000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,I guess my only real hesitation here is that there's some weird insider deal happening between FUH and Isaac? That would,flip,decrease,False,True,771.6312,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-05-15T18:33:08.234000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,at 6%/month for 19 months that adds up to a lot of banging,decrease,increase,False,True,126526.0992,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-29T21:53:25.743000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Does romantic involvement have to be mutual?,increase,decrease,False,True,204.8835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:57:20.027000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Another thing I'll mention is that the description for this one currently includes ""Close date updated to 2022-09-27 11:",flip,hold,False,True,264.5983,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T04:00:33.355000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Did people really bid this up to 97% because they didn't know about thinking mode? +lmao",increase,increase,True,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T10:52:55.571000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"There’s been an outage longer than an hour, reported on the front page of Tech Crunch and techememe. It appears major if",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-23T07:05:55.245000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,The probability legitimately jumped up with today's mini/trial launch. But there seem to be multiple ways this could sti,hold,decrease,False,True,67.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-22T07:52:27.521000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Update: I am down to my final streak forgiveness point, from the 8 I had earlier this month",flip,decrease,False,True,12361.1094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:01:14.507000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Have y'all ever been trauched? Like so bad it hurtz? I kno I have,flip,hold,False,True,69987.158,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2024-04-06T18:44:54.241000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"A third party fleet operator would work as long as it’s using teslas software to route rides, similar to Uber",hold,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-29T22:43:36.229000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"After a bit of research/conversation I’m now less confident - I think the 15-20% range might be reasonable, since they’r",flip,decrease,False,True,586.84,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T05:40:13.872000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Given that it's a market that is currently below 3%, wouldn't plenty of traders be incentivized to keep pulling it down,",decrease,decrease,True,True,70.595,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:28:40.806000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@jfjurchen The other market updated the close date just last week I believe after being open for a couple months.,flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T22:00:28.241000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Don't worry liberals! It is I, the monarchist, who will give you 50 mana in liquidity for YES even though this has been ",decrease,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:42:42.174000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"If that is the case, might as well drop all of our manna on this question 🫠",flip,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:48:15.751000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,Maybe the ham sandwich thing does not necessarily involve mental operations on a physical simulated mesh because ham san,decrease,decrease,True,True,1198.9906,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T23:48:35.987000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,I'm looking for an incorrect person who wants to fill my limit orders,decrease,decrease,True,True,2021.7111,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T12:05:03.317000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Easily proven. Just use a variation of the famous surgeon riddle. By replacing father with mother, the model deduces tha",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T15:21:13.958000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Then why was it front page news? If it’s a major news story, it meets the criteria that + laid out. If being front page",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:38:39.069000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"I think a simple recap podcast is valid for resolution, to be clear. But I can also just make this resolve yes with mani",decrease,increase,False,True,1557.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T21:51:18.099000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"i dunno what happened, i just bet on markets with no research 😆",hold,decrease,False,True,218.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T01:14:19.182000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Screwing over everyone an equal amount sounds like the only close to fair outcome to me.,hold,decrease,False,True,24824.9545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-27T14:03:39.527000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,Delisting aka shadowbanning is a pretty big restriction that I would have expected to be sufficient to resolve this yes,increase,decrease,False,True,1102.3953,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-06-06T21:50:44.725000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,The odds of this are getting higher by the day.,hold,increase,False,True,225.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T08:22:40.636000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"right, I understand this is a limitation of current AI, which is exactly the point. A genuinely intelligent system would",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T19:30:57.313000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Only one deal has ever been thrown out by a Delaware court because of a material adverse effect of one party’s disclosur,flip,decrease,False,True,1234.909,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-15T19:10:33.327000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Scott Galloway did a great job on his podcast with Kara Swisher today summarizing the way the Delaware courts operate. T,decrease,increase,False,True,2266.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T16:19:46.610000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@PeterBorah because that is one material change to the deal since it was signed, I believe, because originally the loans",flip,increase,False,True,1048.0424,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T21:58:34.115000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall do you really think the resolution criteria is ambiguous?,decrease,hold,False,True,2016.762,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T15:04:54.604000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Well, to be fair, this market does come off as a bit cetacean. FUH explicitly says, ""WARNING // Whale fight ongoing // Y",flip,decrease,False,True,1123.4781,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T02:08:19.130000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@PeterBorah you are right about the SEC comment being ridiculous. I should have just used his utter lack of respect for ,decrease,decrease,True,True,2166.762,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-04-09T19:32:27.594000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"my take: if someone is airing the details of their sex life with you, they likely don't see you joining it",hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:14:02.100000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"scratch that again i'm illiterate +I'm going to stop commenting and multitasking lol",increase,decrease,False,True,1180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:40:02.366000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I am not entirely sure what you are talking about.,flip,decrease,False,True,28781.863,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T20:44:44.716000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"and I'm clarifying that just because she has a lot of sex, but I wouldn't count every single person at one of her orgies",hold,hold,True,True,90.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T19:40:54.628000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"We've seen the letter now: +https://mobile.twitter.com/chancery_daily/status/1577377535255613442/photo/1 + +No way Twit",flip,increase,False,True,2.104,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:32:14.103000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall ooohhh you got the Uber cheap YES. I see. Well done catching that.,increase,hold,False,True,834.7938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-02T15:37:43.247000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"you are absolutely delusional with this comment. you have no idea how good the latest build of FSD is internally, and Te",hold,increase,False,True,419.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:21:02.230000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Oh, nevermind, Episode 1 doesn't count since it's less than 20 minutes. So this market is approximately equivalent to ""W",flip,decrease,False,True,179.8294,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T18:26:41.430000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,the parenthetical makes it rather confusing to me as a layman,decrease,decrease,True,True,1692.551,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T00:01:09.222000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,According to my botometer there are bots trading in this market!,hold,hold,True,True,1551.5639,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-23T17:14:35.384000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I've been tricked way too many times with these types of markets where you have to guess what the creator meant by their,flip,decrease,False,True,107.1546,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T20:53:31.072000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Nevermind, the specific performance clause says he could be forced to buy it, the $1B fee is only if he has cause to end",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T20:25:58.897000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Thank you for clarification. But if a whale were only ever playing with ""free mana"" and never investing cash..... what",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:34:54.533000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"In terms of the spirit of the market, I think me and + are already doing that and just haven't gotten around to putting",decrease,increase,False,True,1557.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-03-10T17:47:36.702000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,Suppose Tesla offer some free rides to general public in limited numbers in Austin Texas only. Also public cannot buy ca,hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:36:26.473000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Since @MP hasn't defined exactly what he meant by ""Twitter"", there's bound to be a wide range of expectations. For what ",hold,decrease,False,True,181.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:43:32.155000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"The database is supposed to be up and running again, site is mostly working(if you can't see people's bets, hard-refresh",hold,hold,True,True,11254.5533,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-12T09:42:52.001000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1932478438775902575 +""BREAKING: First ever Tesla Model Y robotaxi with no-one in the ",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:49:53.712000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Could we please brand Manifold Live Episode 2 as Market Manipulation Episode 6? It would be fitting....,decrease,hold,False,True,2008.4677,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:20.543000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh this is 5 weeks if we're counting Mon-Sun period +This should resolve yes",increase,increase,True,True,1180.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:55:25.232000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@BTE I've been trading to close the gap between this market and the other one on the assumption that this one would clos,flip,decrease,False,True,264.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:18:05.761000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,You are a troll no doubt. I never would have placed the limit orders that ended up causing me to lose 150 percent of my ,flip,decrease,False,True,21065.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T22:08:18.706000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/opinion/twitter-elon-musk.html +Strong take here for a judgement ordering Musk to com",decrease,increase,False,True,2166.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T08:28:52.148000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Evidence equally explained by both theories does nothing in distinguishing them. +There is countless evidence not congru",increase,decrease,False,True,4000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T17:52:17.150000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Yep, that's just one of many current problems, not that I am complaining (given my position 😄).",increase,hold,False,True,482.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-25T22:56:55.195000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Elon's daughter, Vivian, has said that Adrian Dittman is Elon. Not definitive I suppose but some evidence for YES",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:11:17.021000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"I trust @BTE decision. +I lost 40k Mana, but it is what it is. +I would've liked to see it resolved N/A personally.",hold,decrease,False,True,40000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T22:55:50.488000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"has anyone heard a peep from +? wondering if +'s pod is likely to qualify by creator standards or if + and + need a ",hold,decrease,False,True,2390.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T01:49:15.221000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Hah. Wish I stuck with my original bet and bought more. ty.,increase,increase,True,True,195.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-16T00:45:01.222000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"This is true, except it’s pretty rare you are able to meaningfully deploy significant capital on a 2-3 day turnaround. P",flip,hold,False,True,1234.0909,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T06:25:51.148000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@akhil Musk's claims are not ""weakish"", they are laughably nonexistent. He literally didn't even try to provide any evid",flip,increase,False,True,1431.3499,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:00:35.604000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Nah, he just up to old tricks or has the android phone:",flip,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T02:09:25.277000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,No way is this an egregious fail. Chat decided your question was nonsense and answered the most reasonable valid questio,hold,increase,False,True,125.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:39:40.368000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Actually reading my last screenshot more carefully and I notice ""the apron seam and penny strap slot aren't perfectly sy",decrease,flip,False,True,1198.9906,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:14:55.408000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@jfjurchen yeah, there is no time limit on this market, but it would resolve YES as soon as the judge issues the order, ",flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T07:31:05.568000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"It is extremely hard for a business to turn off their most (in this case, basically only) revenue source",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-26T22:04:35.419000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I’ll help if you buy out my NO at 50,increase,decrease,False,True,1748.3984,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T13:51:51.603000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,But that dynamic (which I might agree is not something we want to generalize) is orthogonal to the point you were making,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-21T18:10:31.565000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@M yes I thought this was obvious but to clarify any ruling other than ”specific performance” resolves the question NO.,decrease,hold,False,True,2979.9205,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T00:46:01.452000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"I think there's a substantial chance of a settlement, and if there's a settlement there's a substantial chance that it w",hold,decrease,False,True,1878.004,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-26T21:35:40.774000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"a couple of points a) people with low numbers (example: 2400 followers +https://x.com/DevinOlsenn/status/19381093407178",hold,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:03:45.585000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,LOL I know of no rule against this,increase,hold,False,True,6847.8919,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T15:05:55.250000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,Not to mention that there we're also in the presence of an adolescent shumpback whale.,flip,hold,False,True,1123.4781,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:42:10.938000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,haha I was doing that thing where I was unrealistically hopeful that Conflux would end up cross-posting the Manifold Liv,increase,decrease,False,True,1880.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T14:18:00.327000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"track record doesn't weigh that heavily to me when it comes to weird insider/meta things on Manifold, but yes, I'm willi",flip,increase,False,True,1123.4781,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:36:41.443000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,How about ENDING the streak??? Reset?? Fail to maintain??? Now it is much more than mildly annoying....,hold,flip,False,True,2151.2789,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T07:28:30.848000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"I see a big spike, I don't see any evidence that Manifold is unhappy about them. To the contrary, they are quite happy t",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-26T06:01:37.019000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,I do think we're in a gray area currently. If nothing has changed by the end of 2025 I'd tend to agree that a taxi servi,hold,decrease,False,True,67.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-09-28T17:31:44.387000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"I love Aella, despite her old age and antidespressants coping :)",hold,hold,True,True,1320.1277,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T01:33:42.072000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,", I actually think there's a key difference in a physical kill-switch vs a button on the touchscreen. Namely, if the aut",hold,increase,False,True,67.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-09T14:13:36.919000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Busy schedules. Best shot for this market was probably a Manifest liveshow, and that didn’t happen… maybe Crystal Ballin",hold,decrease,False,True,1808.6829,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-23T18:52:49.545000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,The number of people with positions on this market that need to go to horny jail is ridiculous.,decrease,hold,False,True,6418.4008,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-28T21:44:05.711000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"he said 1 on Dec 25 and has made trades on Dec 26, 27, and 28, so I think it's still 1 if he's being honest. Granted, I ",flip,decrease,False,True,354.1594,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:33:12.298000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP BTE was here first but was on tilt.,flip,hold,False,True,93.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:38:09.365000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Agreed! Like if all of Twitter went down for 15 hours for ""planned maintenance"" then I would hope that would qualify as ",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:27:00.119000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,not been a good day for trading oh no it has not,flip,decrease,False,True,12271.1094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-16T17:47:56.293000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Why force people to look through 40+ comments when you could just put the information they need in the description?,flip,hold,False,True,531.5264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-18T14:43:45.601000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Also I'm seeing ""No Groups yet"" when I try to add this market to a group. That can't be right, given that I've created t",hold,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T19:53:37.537000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Thanks Daniel - yes I agree lots of gray areas right now! I definitely wouldn't feel good about resolving yet. +I agree ",decrease,decrease,True,True,61585.426,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T18:32:01.487000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Alright. Let's meet behind the Wendy's dumpster.,hold,hold,True,True,96.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T13:59:12.932000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,This is the best explanation. I appreciate you.,hold,increase,False,True,96.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-26T18:57:54.502000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"investing in this vague market is the highest risk by itself, why would someone put their money where they knew that the",hold,decrease,False,True,408.5999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T19:17:16.894000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I agree. It’s excruciating but maybe it’s just not my jam and I don’t really see anything in the description ruling this,decrease,decrease,True,True,161.0881,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-05T01:18:45.749000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1577428272056389633 +This suggests Musk is beginning the ""I actually want to ",flip,flip,True,True,2.104,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-04-17T12:44:15.860000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,#thetagang she hasn’t even been on stream in a long while,decrease,increase,False,True,93873.9963,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:12:23.934000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Welp we can all head over to +'s market now I guess: +https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-manifold-be-working-normall",hold,hold,True,True,5.0249,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:31:54.739000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,At best the staff comes back to the office and rolled back the code to Friday. At worst it’s a full system meltdown that,flip,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-26T14:57:09.895000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,people seem to take this as face value which i think misses the point. this market is going to spike every time they bot,flip,hold,False,True,386.3657,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T21:26:06.605000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,Isaac's limit orders for Yes are gone so I guess not...,decrease,decrease,True,True,702.7189,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T20:51:35.972000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,Have you been able to reproduce the incorrect answer in your temporary chat?,decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:14:28.432000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"at this rate, it’ll be a YES by EoY though",decrease,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T09:42:56.707000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Donut slicing question: +https://chatgpt.com/share/68bd52ba-a52c-8003-9bac-36d918937e30 +I think most people would say ",increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-09-21T21:59:51.208000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,I'm at 271 now with 7 streak-forgiveness points.,increase,decrease,False,True,1070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:00:51.551000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@ahalekelly Author says ""there is no time limit on this market"" meaning the question is ""Will this ever happen?"" (presum",increase,hold,False,True,200.7419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T09:29:41.216000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Adrian Dittmann is probably intentionally trying to appear to be Musk. (or that might not even be Dittmann),increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T20:29:51.789000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE I agree he's a BAD DUDE who has SWINDLED AND LIED, he has FRAUDED HERE AND THERE and disregarded HABEAS CORPORATION",hold,flip,False,True,50127.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T16:38:00.696000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"It gets it right about half the time with this wording: +If you make a single straight cut through a donut shape, what i",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T15:27:55.478000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Does the 1 hour requirement still hold?,hold,hold,True,True,550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T04:24:47.250000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"No strategy at all. It was resolved prematurely. It should have stayed open until midnight. And for the record, when I r",hold,decrease,False,True,24824.9545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-08-10T03:50:49.182000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"This one is at least a bit of a trick, but I think any reasonable human would go ""huh, what do you mean check if it'll f",decrease,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-10T21:42:51.823000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Fair enough. I'd still call it wrong, even though I wouldn't if it just answered ""mug"" and then got twisted when I asked",hold,decrease,False,True,2649.9449,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:01:22.832000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"They said below that it has to be something significant enough to be reported on by tech news sites. Specifically: +I pl",flip,hold,False,True,531.5264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T05:17:47.148000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,The only way to market manipulate would be to risk your own mana (and given the liquidity in this market it would be a l,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-28T14:51:05.556000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"The first one is a slip where he refers to himself as Elon. That's more than speculation +I am Napoleon. +Would you cons",increase,decrease,False,True,4625.7345,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-27T19:35:52.385000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,note: I just learned it doesn't count as a thing that extends the streak,increase,decrease,False,True,502.3492,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T21:29:24.219000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"How is this market a scam? A scam implies bettors were deceived, and I don't see any evidence of that",flip,hold,False,True,867.0365,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:50:31.700000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I was about to say this - couldn't it be a nice crossover episode? If the rest of the gang agrees?,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T02:54:45.968000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Said poll should probably include the best evidence from both sides as context. It seems like a lot of people aren't awa,decrease,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:54:58.673000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Oh wow. Maybe other people also didn't check the close date on this market,increase,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f372b5cf8f9cff58860bce032c7d5c9fc4287b9f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,150 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T16:57:39.834000+00:00,"IMO + should just take the L and stop throwing good money after bad. No offense",decrease,decrease,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:45:08.945000+00:00,I mean the description doesn't say that it has to be a good podcast hahaha,decrease,hold,False +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T18:32:31.535000+00:00,This is an alignment problem though. It's not about intelligence it's about compliance.,decrease,hold,False +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T07:34:32.821000+00:00,possibly. But it looks to me at this point that the users of Manifold pivoted them. Their current unique feature is that,decrease,hold,False +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T11:22:22.450000+00:00,"for what it's worth, since I'm probably one you had in mind as thinking bribes are unethical, I'll just mention: +(i) I ",decrease,hold,False +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:36:26.473000+00:00,"Since @MP hasn't defined exactly what he meant by ""Twitter"", there's bound to be a wide range of expectations. For what ",hold,hold,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T22:59:33.234000+00:00,nice one - thanks for the update David! 🙌,hold,hold,True +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T20:51:35.972000+00:00,Have you been able to reproduce the incorrect answer in your temporary chat?,decrease,hold,False +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T19:53:37.537000+00:00,"Thanks Daniel - yes I agree lots of gray areas right now! I definitely wouldn't feel good about resolving yet. +I agree ",decrease,hold,False +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T20:44:14.293000+00:00,"If I may make a case for YES here: I think this query satisfies the letter and spirit of your criteria. GPT-5 Thinking """,hold,hold,True +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:48:15.751000+00:00,Maybe the ham sandwich thing does not necessarily involve mental operations on a physical simulated mesh because ham san,decrease,decrease,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:53:26.985000+00:00,"same issue with mine, but it is what it is. + has decided. +I enjoyed my stay.",hold,hold,True +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:39:40.368000+00:00,"Actually reading my last screenshot more carefully and I notice ""the apron seam and penny strap slot aren't perfectly sy",decrease,decrease,True +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:45:45.550000+00:00,"Yeah it also suggests looking at manufacturer tags, id numbers, etc. to gather proof of the defect. +Like if you were a ",decrease,hold,False +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-29T18:11:50.687000+00:00,Have you heard of there was another batch of invites yet?,hold,hold,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-09T14:13:36.919000+00:00,"Busy schedules. Best shot for this market was probably a Manifest liveshow, and that didn’t happen… maybe Crystal Ballin",hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T13:51:51.603000+00:00,But that dynamic (which I might agree is not something we want to generalize) is orthogonal to the point you were making,hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-22T07:52:24.964000+00:00,"@MP irrelevant, this market only cares about the initial ruling by the Delaware court. + +Do you mean the US Supreme Co",decrease,decrease,True +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T08:41:33.204000+00:00,"Not sure if you’d consider this egregious, but it gives pretty bad driving directions. It will often hallucinate streets",hold,decrease,False +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T19:34:30.201000+00:00,"Here's another post of the same information, from one of the contributors who apparently thought The Spectator did a bad",hold,hold,True +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-02-10T17:49:27.576000+00:00,"Various reports with videos of 90 minute to 5.5 hour drives without touching steering wheel or pedals. +https://www.you",hold,hold,True +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T05:16:19.254000+00:00,You mean like if the context gets so large context rot sets in?,decrease,hold,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:14:28.432000+00:00,"at this rate, it’ll be a YES by EoY though",decrease,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T23:42:14.966000+00:00,"@BTE The main reason would be the usual one: litigation is long, annoying, expensive, and never 100% certain, especially",hold,decrease,False +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:07:39.916000+00:00,does api matter for the purposes of this market?,decrease,hold,False +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T14:54:34.002000+00:00,"everyone said that after ""the market"" where galen spent a few thousand +Looks to me like we got a 10x increase in about ",decrease,decrease,True +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T15:21:13.958000+00:00,"Then why was it front page news? If it’s a major news story, it meets the criteria that + laid out. If being front page",decrease,hold,False +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2024-04-06T18:44:54.241000+00:00,"A third party fleet operator would work as long as it’s using teslas software to route rides, similar to Uber",hold,hold,True +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-23T07:05:55.245000+00:00,The probability legitimately jumped up with today's mini/trial launch. But there seem to be multiple ways this could sti,hold,decrease,False +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-03-10T17:47:36.702000+00:00,Suppose Tesla offer some free rides to general public in limited numbers in Austin Texas only. Also public cannot buy ca,hold,decrease,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T16:27:04.224000+00:00,"@MattP @spindle guys, it took me a month to really figure this thing out and I was crushing it the last 4 days thinking ",decrease,decrease,True +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:36:41.443000+00:00,How about ENDING the streak??? Reset?? Fail to maintain??? Now it is much more than mildly annoying....,hold,decrease,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:02:02.167000+00:00,Find me a legal opinion thAt disagrees with me. And I was pretty explicit in a previous comment in this thread that I DO,decrease,decrease,True +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T21:51:18.099000+00:00,"i dunno what happened, i just bet on markets with no research 😆",hold,hold,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:29:36.827000+00:00,it’s definitely real. I got 5mins into this week’s ep,decrease,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:38:34.300000+00:00,It turned an AcCURATE PREDICTION into a lozz 4 me and a gain 4 u. Lookz like TREACHERY to me!!!!,hold,decrease,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:35:08.183000+00:00,"I assumed the due date was open to extension due to a combination of: + a) no stated deadline + b) the long dur",decrease,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T10:19:51.956000+00:00,@Spindle This is going to be the easiest money ever. Still a dick move.,decrease,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-05-21T01:31:03.934000+00:00,@MartinRandall that outcome is not possible at this stage of the process. This type of lawsuit can’t get settled. It’s z,hold,hold,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T19:17:16.894000+00:00,I agree. It’s excruciating but maybe it’s just not my jam and I don’t really see anything in the description ruling this,decrease,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T16:08:06.542000+00:00,Want to do a challenge bet? I will let you choose the terms.,decrease,hold,False +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T18:26:41.430000+00:00,the parenthetical makes it rather confusing to me as a layman,decrease,hold,False +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-09-28T17:31:44.387000+00:00,"I love Aella, despite her old age and antidespressants coping :)",hold,hold,True +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T06:04:49.702000+00:00,"agree that this is relevant. If you have a YES position in this market, you'd be a fool not to bet NO and increase the o",decrease,hold,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T22:55:50.488000+00:00,"has anyone heard a peep from +? wondering if +'s pod is likely to qualify by creator standards or if + and + need a ",hold,decrease,False +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T02:09:25.277000+00:00,No way is this an egregious fail. Chat decided your question was nonsense and answered the most reasonable valid questio,hold,hold,True +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T17:36:22.327000+00:00,"@NivlacM + egregious is of course a relative term so I imagine something like a median human would be the baseline",decrease,hold,False +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T04:24:47.250000+00:00,"No strategy at all. It was resolved prematurely. It should have stayed open until midnight. And for the record, when I r",hold,decrease,False +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T05:17:47.148000+00:00,The only way to market manipulate would be to risk your own mana (and given the liquidity in this market it would be a l,hold,hold,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:32.610000+00:00,I wonder if this podcast was made for this market. Ep 1 is exactly 1sec longer than it needs to be,decrease,decrease,True +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-23T18:52:49.545000+00:00,The number of people with positions on this market that need to go to horny jail is ridiculous.,decrease,hold,False +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T10:52:55.571000+00:00,"There’s been an outage longer than an hour, reported on the front page of Tech Crunch and techememe. It appears major if",decrease,decrease,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T10:27:24.617000+00:00,"@Spindle Obviously you can waste your money on whatever you want, but shit like this destroys the community. This questi",decrease,decrease,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-20T11:18:02.126000+00:00,"@jack October though, which is after the close date for this market. @BTE, can you please clarify on your plan here? It ",hold,decrease,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-15T19:10:33.327000+00:00,Scott Galloway did a great job on his podcast with Kara Swisher today summarizing the way the Delaware courts operate. T,decrease,hold,False +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-29T18:53:16.407000+00:00,What is the explanation for this?,hold,decrease,False +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T10:43:30.400000+00:00,"If the service of a feature is unavailable and we haven’t heard a prior announcement of it being discontinued, it meets ",decrease,hold,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:49:53.712000+00:00,Could we please brand Manifold Live Episode 2 as Market Manipulation Episode 6? It would be fitting....,decrease,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T04:07:09.718000+00:00,@MartinRandall that makes the market INVALID,hold,decrease,False +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T13:59:12.932000+00:00,This is the best explanation. I appreciate you.,hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-18T14:43:45.601000+00:00,"Also I'm seeing ""No Groups yet"" when I try to add this market to a group. That can't be right, given that I've created t",hold,decrease,False +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T05:40:13.872000+00:00,"Given that it's a market that is currently below 3%, wouldn't plenty of traders be incentivized to keep pulling it down,",decrease,decrease,True +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-04-10T21:44:29.653000+00:00,Is destiny even a sadist sexually?,decrease,hold,False +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T23:34:52.693000+00:00,"Possibly there's some restriction on immediately spending purchased mana. Like ""Establishing a 10-day waiting period fo",hold,hold,True +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-26T21:35:40.774000+00:00,"a couple of points a) people with low numbers (example: 2400 followers +https://x.com/DevinOlsenn/status/19381093407178",hold,decrease,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:38:39.069000+00:00,"I think a simple recap podcast is valid for resolution, to be clear. But I can also just make this resolve yes with mani",decrease,hold,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:34:54.533000+00:00,"In terms of the spirit of the market, I think me and + are already doing that and just haven't gotten around to putting",decrease,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:45:18.263000+00:00,"Yeah, IIRC you said that any Delaware judge (initial ruling or appeal) would count. That was someone else's suggestion w",hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T21:58:34.115000+00:00,@MartinRandall do you really think the resolution criteria is ambiguous?,decrease,hold,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:13:12.367000+00:00,Also why aren't you betting more,decrease,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:10:26.016000+00:00,"Another gem from the recent hearing showing Musk (stupidly) has little respect for the court. +Delaware Chancery Judge K",decrease,decrease,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-06T19:29:04.140000+00:00,"He presumably doesn't want to speak under oath for his deposition. I think twitter is right to not take ""I promise to do",hold,decrease,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:23:23.580000+00:00,"the really based maneuver would be to make 4 episodes, get everyone to bet it up to 90%, then bet it down to 10% without",decrease,decrease,True +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-04-09T19:32:27.594000+00:00,"my take: if someone is airing the details of their sex life with you, they likely don't see you joining it",hold,hold,True +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T18:11:05.168000+00:00,"I agree, it doesn't universally work, and it feels unnerving, but the goal isn't to hurt that person, rather to attack a",hold,hold,True +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T15:27:55.478000+00:00,Does the 1 hour requirement still hold?,hold,hold,True +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T07:28:30.848000+00:00,"I see a big spike, I don't see any evidence that Manifold is unhappy about them. To the contrary, they are quite happy t",decrease,hold,False +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T23:48:35.987000+00:00,I'm looking for an incorrect person who wants to fill my limit orders,decrease,hold,False +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T20:44:44.716000+00:00,"and I'm clarifying that just because she has a lot of sex, but I wouldn't count every single person at one of her orgies",hold,hold,True +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T07:31:05.568000+00:00,"It is extremely hard for a business to turn off their most (in this case, basically only) revenue source",decrease,hold,False +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:00:38.045000+00:00,"Considering the magnitude of problems and the number of people betting on this market because of those problems, a bit m",hold,decrease,False +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-02T15:37:43.247000+00:00,"you are absolutely delusional with this comment. you have no idea how good the latest build of FSD is internally, and Te",hold,hold,True +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T01:33:42.072000+00:00,", I actually think there's a key difference in a physical kill-switch vs a button on the touchscreen. Namely, if the aut",hold,hold,True +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-26T06:01:37.019000+00:00,I do think we're in a gray area currently. If nothing has changed by the end of 2025 I'd tend to agree that a taxi servi,hold,decrease,False +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:11:17.021000+00:00,"I trust @BTE decision. +I lost 40k Mana, but it is what it is. +I would've liked to see it resolved N/A personally.",hold,hold,True +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-17T12:16:12.809000+00:00,"they are both in open relationships, they had some good talks, doesn't seem that unlikely that they would hook up at lea",decrease,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T02:08:19.130000+00:00,@PeterBorah you are right about the SEC comment being ridiculous. I should have just used his utter lack of respect for ,decrease,decrease,True +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:43:48.510000+00:00,"I agree, we have all participated in the market with a different understanding of what was described. In this era, only ",decrease,decrease,True +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-04-25T13:41:07.378000+00:00,"So who do you think will be doing the vandalism? +If people who book a ride do you think this won't be detected and char",hold,decrease,False +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:21:24.841000+00:00,"For some reason I now can't see my position here, but other markets are working.",decrease,decrease,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T00:46:01.452000+00:00,"I think there's a substantial chance of a settlement, and if there's a settlement there's a substantial chance that it w",hold,decrease,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:31:17.147000+00:00,Do you just go over the percentages displayed on various markets?!,decrease,hold,False +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T18:32:01.487000+00:00,Alright. Let's meet behind the Wendy's dumpster.,hold,decrease,False +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T02:54:45.968000+00:00,Said poll should probably include the best evidence from both sides as context. It seems like a lot of people aren't awa,decrease,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-06-06T21:50:44.725000+00:00,The odds of this are getting higher by the day.,hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:12:23.934000+00:00,"Welp we can all head over to +'s market now I guess: +https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-manifold-be-working-normall",hold,hold,True +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-04-17T12:44:15.860000+00:00,#thetagang she hasn’t even been on stream in a long while,decrease,hold,False +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T21:26:06.605000+00:00,Isaac's limit orders for Yes are gone so I guess not...,decrease,decrease,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T09:10:45.748000+00:00,"Do you have an opinion on whether this should Resolve N/A or Resolve NO? +I understand if you rather reserve your opini",hold,hold,True +5RcECd9PAc,2025-08-10T03:50:49.182000+00:00,"This one is at least a bit of a trick, but I think any reasonable human would go ""huh, what do you mean check if it'll f",decrease,hold,False +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T19:52:11.768000+00:00,But they would all know what pinky fingers are.,decrease,hold,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:12:45.993000+00:00,what the heck how did this happen with no one noticing,decrease,hold,False +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T22:00:28.241000+00:00,"Don't worry liberals! It is I, the monarchist, who will give you 50 mana in liquidity for YES even though this has been ",decrease,decrease,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-22T13:39:50.006000+00:00,@MP oh that is a really good point! I need to think about that for a minute.,decrease,decrease,True +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T18:25:23.333000+00:00,Yep after reading all your comments I agree I should have just gone for the simpler option. I don't want to revert it al,hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-15T20:33:34.598000+00:00,60% seemz high given the inherent possibility of latent SNOUT TROUGHING that iz likely 2 ocur,hold,decrease,False +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-11-17T15:53:49.701000+00:00,"Mana and profits are virtual things that people care about too. +People have in fact spent real money to buy more mana t",hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T07:30:05.143000+00:00,"@MP Interesting, thanks for this. Matt Levine has mentioned that consideration too. I might not be taking it seriously e",hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T15:04:44.098000+00:00,Would you mind explaining how it would mean effectively quitting manifold?,hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T19:57:12.939000+00:00,@Spindle it’s about him being irrational and the consequences of that. Thinking the market has ever priced this deal rig,hold,decrease,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T20:29:51.789000+00:00,"@BTE I agree he's a BAD DUDE who has SWINDLED AND LIED, he has FRAUDED HERE AND THERE and disregarded HABEAS CORPORATION",hold,hold,True +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-10T21:42:51.823000+00:00,"Fair enough. I'd still call it wrong, even though I wouldn't if it just answered ""mug"" and then got twisted when I asked",hold,hold,True +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-05-15T18:33:08.234000+00:00,at 6%/month for 19 months that adds up to a lot of banging,decrease,hold,False +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T01:14:19.182000+00:00,Screwing over everyone an equal amount sounds like the only close to fair outcome to me.,hold,hold,True +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-26T18:57:54.502000+00:00,"investing in this vague market is the highest risk by itself, why would someone put their money where they knew that the",hold,decrease,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T00:01:09.222000+00:00,According to my botometer there are bots trading in this market!,hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-21T18:10:31.565000+00:00,@M yes I thought this was obvious but to clarify any ruling other than ”specific performance” resolves the question NO.,decrease,hold,False +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-25T01:59:42.902000+00:00,(I originally answered here but want to keep all my musing collected in one place so I'm going to link to my answer here,hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T22:08:18.706000+00:00,"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/opinion/twitter-elon-musk.html +Strong take here for a judgement ordering Musk to com",decrease,hold,False +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:43:32.155000+00:00,"The database is supposed to be up and running again, site is mostly working(if you can't see people's bets, hard-refresh",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e8f267e7dc421359f1780ef844969908ef9c8b13 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,144 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T19:40:54.628000+00:00,"We've seen the letter now: +https://mobile.twitter.com/chancery_daily/status/1577377535255613442/photo/1 + +No way Twit",flip,flip,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:28:40.806000+00:00,@jfjurchen The other market updated the close date just last week I believe after being open for a couple months.,flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T23:53:55.176000+00:00,@MattP his free cash all went away due to limit orders and his profit and portfolio numbers went much lower because they,flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:11:32.993000+00:00,Correct. This market is about “specific performance”.,flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T19:30:57.313000+00:00,Only one deal has ever been thrown out by a Delaware court because of a material adverse effect of one party’s disclosur,flip,hold,False +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:36:26.473000+00:00,"Since @MP hasn't defined exactly what he meant by ""Twitter"", there's bound to be a wide range of expectations. For what ",hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:29:22.016000+00:00,@MattP My limit orders are at m1000 because the system won't let me place ones at m2000.,flip,hold,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T22:59:33.234000+00:00,nice one - thanks for the update David! 🙌,hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:53:26.985000+00:00,"same issue with mine, but it is what it is. + has decided. +I enjoyed my stay.",hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T16:19:46.610000+00:00,"@PeterBorah because that is one material change to the deal since it was signed, I believe, because originally the loans",flip,hold,False +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T13:01:00.973000+00:00,I guess my only real hesitation here is that there's some weird insider deal happening between FUH and Isaac? That would,flip,hold,False +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T20:44:14.293000+00:00,"If I may make a case for YES here: I think this query satisfies the letter and spirit of your criteria. GPT-5 Thinking """,hold,hold,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-09T14:13:36.919000+00:00,"Busy schedules. Best shot for this market was probably a Manifest liveshow, and that didn’t happen… maybe Crystal Ballin",hold,hold,True +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-29T18:11:50.687000+00:00,Have you heard of there was another batch of invites yet?,hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T13:51:51.603000+00:00,But that dynamic (which I might agree is not something we want to generalize) is orthogonal to the point you were making,hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:01:14.507000+00:00,Have y'all ever been trauched? Like so bad it hurtz? I kno I have,flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:39:03.381000+00:00,But this markets close date is three months earlier than the other one's 🤔,flip,hold,False +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T08:41:33.204000+00:00,"Not sure if you’d consider this egregious, but it gives pretty bad driving directions. It will often hallucinate streets",hold,flip,False +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:34:41.899000+00:00,This is my current losses on the market. I really thought it was easy to break the streak. its not,flip,flip,True +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T19:34:30.201000+00:00,"Here's another post of the same information, from one of the contributors who apparently thought The Spectator did a bad",hold,hold,True +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-02-10T17:49:27.576000+00:00,"Various reports with videos of 90 minute to 5.5 hour drives without touching steering wheel or pedals. +https://www.you",hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T23:42:14.966000+00:00,"@BTE The main reason would be the usual one: litigation is long, annoying, expensive, and never 100% certain, especially",hold,hold,True +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:30:32.660000+00:00,why don't you just break the streak? wtf,flip,flip,True +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T21:09:46.457000+00:00,it's not conclusive until we have video of them together with multiple eye witnesses testifying it's not AI generated.,flip,hold,False +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T11:04:34.894000+00:00,This is egregious. Seems immediately obvious it is 2.,flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:04:42.469000+00:00,Is there a world where this resolves YES and https://manifold.markets/SG/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-this-yea resolves NO,flip,flip,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:32:01.976000+00:00,Take your time. Finishing the fixes tomorrow would be perfect for my bet here!,flip,flip,True +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T21:51:18.099000+00:00,"i dunno what happened, i just bet on markets with no research 😆",hold,hold,True +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:36:41.443000+00:00,How about ENDING the streak??? Reset?? Fail to maintain??? Now it is much more than mildly annoying....,hold,flip,False +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2024-04-06T18:44:54.241000+00:00,"A third party fleet operator would work as long as it’s using teslas software to route rides, similar to Uber",hold,hold,True +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-29T10:09:55.141000+00:00,"I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the courage of + fails, when we f",flip,flip,True +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-03-10T17:47:36.702000+00:00,Suppose Tesla offer some free rides to general public in limited numbers in Austin Texas only. Also public cannot buy ca,hold,flip,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:57:20.027000+00:00,"Another thing I'll mention is that the description for this one currently includes ""Close date updated to 2022-09-27 11:",flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T17:05:47.143000+00:00,"If only I had cancelled my limit orders before hitting SELL!!! I executed at 40, 35, 30, 25, 20 … basically everything I",flip,flip,True +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-23T07:05:55.245000+00:00,The probability legitimately jumped up with today's mini/trial launch. But there seem to be multiple ways this could sti,hold,hold,True +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T19:47:22.370000+00:00,this is what I've been saying all this time. There needs to be compelling evidence and so far there is none that isn't e,flip,flip,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-05-21T01:31:03.934000+00:00,@MartinRandall that outcome is not possible at this stage of the process. This type of lawsuit can’t get settled. It’s z,hold,flip,False +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:55:13.131000+00:00,I'm getting the same issue. Can't use the web version. Haven't tried the app.,flip,flip,True +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-22T07:52:27.521000+00:00,"Update: I am down to my final streak forgiveness point, from the 8 I had earlier this month",flip,hold,False +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-16T16:56:29.552000+00:00,"They said below that it has to be something significant enough to be reported on by tech news sites, which this doesn't ",flip,hold,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T22:55:50.488000+00:00,"has anyone heard a peep from +? wondering if +'s pod is likely to qualify by creator standards or if + and + need a ",hold,hold,True +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T02:09:25.277000+00:00,No way is this an egregious fail. Chat decided your question was nonsense and answered the most reasonable valid questio,hold,hold,True +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:09:17.978000+00:00,yeah im not actually doing it. said it just as a fun sentiment,flip,flip,True +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-09-28T17:31:44.387000+00:00,"I love Aella, despite her old age and antidespressants coping :)",hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T04:24:47.250000+00:00,"No strategy at all. It was resolved prematurely. It should have stayed open until midnight. And for the record, when I r",hold,flip,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T22:48:46.601000+00:00,@jfjurchen I suggest requiring a brief description of the reason for any update to closing date of resolution criteria. ,flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:40:02.366000+00:00,I am not entirely sure what you are talking about.,flip,hold,False +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-12T09:42:52.001000+00:00,"https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1932478438775902575 +""BREAKING: First ever Tesla Model Y robotaxi with no-one in the ",flip,hold,False +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T05:17:47.148000+00:00,The only way to market manipulate would be to risk your own mana (and given the liquidity in this market it would be a l,hold,hold,True +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-22T02:24:21.424000+00:00,I don't click links like that am I about to get rick rolled?,flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:55:25.232000+00:00,@BTE I've been trading to close the gap between this market and the other one on the assumption that this one would clos,flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:18:05.761000+00:00,You are a troll no doubt. I never would have placed the limit orders that ended up causing me to lose 150 percent of my ,flip,flip,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:31:49.666000+00:00,Endlezz clarifications ARE NEEDED cuz u have previouzly indicated u will not resolve NO if the judge is a SCALLYWAG and ,flip,hold,False +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-29T18:53:16.407000+00:00,What is the explanation for this?,hold,hold,True +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T13:59:12.932000+00:00,This is the best explanation. I appreciate you.,hold,hold,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:21:02.230000+00:00,"Oh, nevermind, Episode 1 doesn't count since it's less than 20 minutes. So this market is approximately equivalent to ""W",flip,flip,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T04:07:09.718000+00:00,@MartinRandall that makes the market INVALID,hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-18T14:43:45.601000+00:00,"Also I'm seeing ""No Groups yet"" when I try to add this market to a group. That can't be right, given that I've created t",hold,hold,True +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-29T22:43:36.229000+00:00,"After a bit of research/conversation I’m now less confident - I think the 15-20% range might be reasonable, since they’r",flip,flip,True +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T23:34:52.693000+00:00,"Possibly there's some restriction on immediately spending purchased mana. Like ""Establishing a 10-day waiting period fo",hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T20:28:56.146000+00:00,Printed M$ just by playing the spread. Why are you bozos selling YES for 2% only to push it up to 98% in one big spike? ,flip,flip,True +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-26T21:35:40.774000+00:00,"a couple of points a) people with low numbers (example: 2400 followers +https://x.com/DevinOlsenn/status/19381093407178",hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T06:25:51.148000+00:00,"@akhil Musk's claims are not ""weakish"", they are laughably nonexistent. He literally didn't even try to provide any evid",flip,flip,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:38:34.300000+00:00,It turned an AcCURATE PREDICTION into a lozz 4 me and a gain 4 u. Lookz like TREACHERY to me!!!!,hold,hold,True +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-16T00:45:01.222000+00:00,"This is true, except it’s pretty rare you are able to meaningfully deploy significant capital on a 2-3 day turnaround. P",flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:45:18.263000+00:00,"Yeah, IIRC you said that any Delaware judge (initial ruling or appeal) would count. That was someone else's suggestion w",hold,hold,True +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-23T17:14:35.384000+00:00,I've been tricked way too many times with these types of markets where you have to guess what the creator meant by their,flip,flip,True +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:35:06.379000+00:00,"if you sold your NO, the market went up, which is effectively like buying YES. Even if you've exited the market, any fur",flip,flip,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:14:09.424000+00:00,"nope, profit graphs still don't load, displayed trader payouts on market resolve are still incorrect and i can't see my ",flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-06T19:29:04.140000+00:00,"He presumably doesn't want to speak under oath for his deposition. I think twitter is right to not take ""I promise to do",hold,flip,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:14:55.408000+00:00,"@jfjurchen yeah, there is no time limit on this market, but it would resolve YES as soon as the judge issues the order, ",flip,hold,False +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-04-09T19:32:27.594000+00:00,"my take: if someone is airing the details of their sex life with you, they likely don't see you joining it",hold,hold,True +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T18:11:05.168000+00:00,"I agree, it doesn't universally work, and it feels unnerving, but the goal isn't to hurt that person, rather to attack a",hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:09:16.354000+00:00,It's running perfectly for me at the moment fingers crossed....but the last hour I couldnt get anything to load,flip,hold,False +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T15:05:55.250000+00:00,Not to mention that there we're also in the presence of an adolescent shumpback whale.,flip,hold,False +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T15:27:55.478000+00:00,Does the 1 hour requirement still hold?,hold,hold,True +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T14:18:00.327000+00:00,"track record doesn't weigh that heavily to me when it comes to weird insider/meta things on Manifold, but yes, I'm willi",flip,hold,False +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T20:44:44.716000+00:00,"and I'm clarifying that just because she has a lot of sex, but I wouldn't count every single person at one of her orgies",hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:00:38.045000+00:00,"Considering the magnitude of problems and the number of people betting on this market because of those problems, a bit m",hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-09T15:35:38.389000+00:00,Have I got a market for you...,flip,hold,False +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:11:17.021000+00:00,"I trust @BTE decision. +I lost 40k Mana, but it is what it is. +I would've liked to see it resolved N/A personally.",hold,hold,True +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T01:33:42.072000+00:00,", I actually think there's a key difference in a physical kill-switch vs a button on the touchscreen. Namely, if the aut",hold,hold,True +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-02T15:37:43.247000+00:00,"you are absolutely delusional with this comment. you have no idea how good the latest build of FSD is internally, and Te",hold,flip,False +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-26T06:01:37.019000+00:00,I do think we're in a gray area currently. If nothing has changed by the end of 2025 I'd tend to agree that a taxi servi,hold,flip,False +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T20:25:58.897000+00:00,"Thank you for clarification. But if a whale were only ever playing with ""free mana"" and never investing cash..... what",flip,hold,False +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-28T21:44:05.711000+00:00,"he said 1 on Dec 25 and has made trades on Dec 26, 27, and 28, so I think it's still 1 if he's being honest. Granted, I ",flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:33:12.298000+00:00,@MattP BTE was here first but was on tilt.,flip,hold,False +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-16T17:47:56.293000+00:00,Why force people to look through 40+ comments when you could just put the information they need in the description?,flip,hold,False +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-04-25T13:41:07.378000+00:00,"So who do you think will be doing the vandalism? +If people who book a ride do you think this won't be detected and char",hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T00:46:01.452000+00:00,"I think there's a substantial chance of a settlement, and if there's a settlement there's a substantial chance that it w",hold,hold,True +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T18:32:01.487000+00:00,Alright. Let's meet behind the Wendy's dumpster.,hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:00:35.604000+00:00,"Nah, he just up to old tricks or has the android phone:",flip,flip,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:42:42.174000+00:00,"If that is the case, might as well drop all of our manna on this question 🫠",flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-06-06T21:50:44.725000+00:00,The odds of this are getting higher by the day.,hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-20T11:18:02.126000+00:00,"@jack October though, which is after the close date for this market. @BTE, can you please clarify on your plan here? It ",hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:12:23.934000+00:00,"Welp we can all head over to +'s market now I guess: +https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-manifold-be-working-normall",hold,flip,False +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:27:00.119000+00:00,not been a good day for trading oh no it has not,flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:32:07.390000+00:00,For real?! Weird. Should have just waited for it to resolve.,flip,flip,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:51:37.371000+00:00,i sense a controversial resolution incoming,flip,hold,False +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T09:10:45.748000+00:00,"Do you have an opinion on whether this should Resolve N/A or Resolve NO? +I understand if you rather reserve your opini",hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-05T01:18:45.749000+00:00,"https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1577428272056389633 +This suggests Musk is beginning the ""I actually want to ",flip,flip,True +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-26T14:57:09.895000+00:00,people seem to take this as face value which i think misses the point. this market is going to spike every time they bot,flip,hold,False +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:31:54.739000+00:00,At best the staff comes back to the office and rolled back the code to Friday. At worst it’s a full system meltdown that,flip,hold,False +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-11-17T15:53:49.701000+00:00,"Mana and profits are virtual things that people care about too. +People have in fact spent real money to buy more mana t",hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-15T20:33:34.598000+00:00,60% seemz high given the inherent possibility of latent SNOUT TROUGHING that iz likely 2 ocur,hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T07:30:05.143000+00:00,"@MP Interesting, thanks for this. Matt Levine has mentioned that consideration too. I might not be taking it seriously e",hold,hold,True +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T18:25:23.333000+00:00,Yep after reading all your comments I agree I should have just gone for the simpler option. I don't want to revert it al,hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T15:04:44.098000+00:00,Would you mind explaining how it would mean effectively quitting manifold?,hold,hold,True +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T15:04:54.604000+00:00,"Well, to be fair, this market does come off as a bit cetacean. FUH explicitly says, ""WARNING // Whale fight ongoing // Y",flip,hold,False +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-10T21:42:51.823000+00:00,"Fair enough. I'd still call it wrong, even though I wouldn't if it just answered ""mug"" and then got twisted when I asked",hold,hold,True +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T19:57:12.939000+00:00,@Spindle it’s about him being irrational and the consequences of that. Thinking the market has ever priced this deal rig,hold,flip,False +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-26T18:57:54.502000+00:00,"investing in this vague market is the highest risk by itself, why would someone put their money where they knew that the",hold,flip,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T20:29:51.789000+00:00,"@BTE I agree he's a BAD DUDE who has SWINDLED AND LIED, he has FRAUDED HERE AND THERE and disregarded HABEAS CORPORATION",hold,flip,False +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T01:14:19.182000+00:00,Screwing over everyone an equal amount sounds like the only close to fair outcome to me.,hold,hold,True +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T21:29:24.219000+00:00,"How is this market a scam? A scam implies bettors were deceived, and I don't see any evidence of that",flip,hold,False +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-25T01:59:42.902000+00:00,(I originally answered here but want to keep all my musing collected in one place so I'm going to link to my answer here,hold,hold,True +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T15:36:22.533000+00:00,"In case it comes down to the line, California's time must be used to determine a resolution for this market. +I'm thinki",flip,hold,False +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T00:01:09.222000+00:00,According to my botometer there are bots trading in this market!,hold,hold,True +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:43:32.155000+00:00,"The database is supposed to be up and running again, site is mostly working(if you can't see people's bets, hard-refresh",hold,hold,True +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:01:22.832000+00:00,"They said below that it has to be something significant enough to be reported on by tech news sites. Specifically: +I pl",flip,hold,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..53645710c50d1d86c92ab7391767472373fd4172 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,299 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-25T23:17:58.055000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Holy shit I just saw how much you have made on this market!! You’re welcome!! 😂😂,hold,increase,False,True,20611.5194,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-02T20:02:26.668000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall This market is short Musk giving up and complying and Musk and Twitter settling. It'd be more useful if i,increase,decrease,False,True,240.1484,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-08-29T23:20:30.674000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,my interpretation before you made the clarification about safety monitors was that it would resolve yes as you had speci,increase,decrease,False,True,1250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T02:51:04.201000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Doesn't it create incentives for market manipulation?,decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T16:10:53.758000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Elon Derangement Syndrome: The Market,flip,hold,False,True,6994.1865,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T05:58:33.771000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Spaces was down for longer than an hour from a ""legacy bug"". That should definitely count as a major outage. +https://fo",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:24:15.497000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"agree - if it's related, I hope the market was just the impetus but the intention is to continue creating episodes? +I'm",increase,decrease,False,True,1880.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:14:55.408000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@jfjurchen yeah, there is no time limit on this market, but it would resolve YES as soon as the judge issues the order, ",flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T14:00:31.561000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Whut will u do if the first judge says PAY SUM money butt then Twitter appealz,flip,decrease,False,True,66787.158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T20:09:00.338000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"ya, the description is misleading lol. The speaker is talking about a tweet referencing DITTMAN as ""I"".",decrease,hold,False,True,4392.7034,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:55:45.061000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"@BTE Man, that hurt... I can't believe a quality assurance person would call this state of things ""fixed and working con",hold,decrease,False,True,1887.2279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T20:28:56.146000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Printed M$ just by playing the spread. Why are you bozos selling YES for 2% only to push it up to 98% in one big spike? ,flip,decrease,False,True,416.3726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:13:12.367000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Also why aren't you betting more,decrease,increase,False,True,257.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2024-01-29T05:37:15.659000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"There are only so many ""non traditional"" women in the world and Destiny is on a quest to catch them all",increase,increase,True,True,410.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-12-07T23:13:11.079000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Do you guys not see the relationship between the Melina drama and this?,increase,decrease,False,True,270.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T04:33:21.085000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Yep I agree there are many problems with a poll and ideally there would have been more strict and defined criteria, but ",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T19:00:06.387000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Yes, I believe that qualifies. My original wording was ""Open to non Tesla employees."" The ""available to the general publ",decrease,hold,False,True,61585.426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:30:32.660000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,why don't you just break the streak? wtf,flip,decrease,False,True,124.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-23T16:12:57.978000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I’m super curious why you chose this to gamble so big and so early (before you even had good potential returns),hold,decrease,False,True,0.4145,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-17T12:16:12.809000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"they are both in open relationships, they had some good talks, doesn't seem that unlikely that they would hook up at lea",decrease,hold,False,True,608.5271,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T17:22:34.073000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Just leaved suggestions to this on Discord. Give a thumbs up, we need safe limits ASAP!",flip,hold,False,True,21.9409,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-29T20:19:18.270000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"I’m placing some YES limit orders, but I think the true probability of this is <10% - I just don’t want to hold so much ",flip,decrease,False,True,2520.0194,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:17:21.496000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"I was talking about settlement of the lawsuit before the court rules (or perhaps, during the appeals process?) seeming l",hold,decrease,False,True,1878.004,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T18:58:00.571000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Spindle This market is only about whether a judge orders him to honor the deal he signed, not about what happens next. ",decrease,increase,False,True,7568.6835,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:08:06.561000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"(Which is intentional, but not ""working"".)",decrease,decrease,True,True,3.3333,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-26T15:51:07.453000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Is making whalebait markets eg +https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/am-i-pretty + unlisted sufficient for a yes re",flip,decrease,False,True,383.7589,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-16T00:36:54.231000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,at this point the theory it is not elon is weaker imo,decrease,increase,False,True,780.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-05-03T12:52:18.412000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,Am I meant to report those markets? Complain about them on Discord? Policy still unclear.,hold,decrease,False,True,116.1668,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-06-20T12:07:04.150000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"I think this is still unlikely, because of how many steps it would take to get there. We have to assume: + +1) Twitter d",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-06-28T02:54:09.083000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"The new policy is to not subsidize them, which is not really a restriction, and to limit mana purchases per day, which i",decrease,hold,False,True,166.1668,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2024-02-11T21:41:53.436000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Destiny would have crushed at Bet on Love with his bright blue sweatpants,hold,hold,True,True,564.7171,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-28T21:44:05.711000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"he said 1 on Dec 25 and has made trades on Dec 26, 27, and 28, so I think it's still 1 if he's being honest. Granted, I ",increase,decrease,False,True,354.1594,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T11:19:02.405000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,It doesn't feel like an activity with much longevity though.,hold,decrease,False,True,96.1668,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T19:17:16.894000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I agree. It’s excruciating but maybe it’s just not my jam and I don’t really see anything in the description ruling this,increase,decrease,False,True,161.0881,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-10T16:37:47.651000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Isn't the max leverage 2x so it only reduces the discount rate by half-ish?,hold,hold,True,True,46305.5092,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:29:43.054000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Ok thanks. The problem is that in my experience, questions of the form ""Will X happen?"" are very often implicitly ""Will ",flip,decrease,False,True,200.7419,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-01T13:31:05.969000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,By 'break' do you mean 'hit' or 'end'?,flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:02:32.024000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,Okay everyone leave it still for a minute so we can confirm that when the rankings refresh haha,increase,hold,False,True,6847.8919,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T17:05:47.143000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"If only I had cancelled my limit orders before hitting SELL!!! I executed at 40, 35, 30, 25, 20 … basically everything I",flip,decrease,False,True,21065.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:32.610000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I wonder if this podcast was made for this market. Ep 1 is exactly 1sec longer than it needs to be,decrease,decrease,True,True,18.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T23:39:40.891000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"For someone whose existence is a lie, I can understand the incapability of understanding the glory of god. I'm afraid yo",hold,hold,True,True,1257.3907,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:42:10.938000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,haha I was doing that thing where I was unrealistically hopeful that Conflux would end up cross-posting the Manifold Liv,increase,decrease,False,True,1880.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-21T18:10:31.565000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@M yes I thought this was obvious but to clarify any ruling other than ”specific performance” resolves the question NO.,hold,hold,True,True,2979.9205,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T19:00:49.974000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Hard to resist buying at this price, even with the recent news, since +he already committed to buy twitter once! + I th",decrease,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:55:13.131000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I'm getting the same issue. Can't use the web version. Haven't tried the app.,flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:07:04.013000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Note that the entire API 404s right now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3.3333,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T15:04:54.604000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Well, to be fair, this market does come off as a bit cetacean. FUH explicitly says, ""WARNING // Whale fight ongoing // Y",increase,decrease,False,True,1123.4781,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:28:40.806000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@jfjurchen The other market updated the close date just last week I believe after being open for a couple months.,flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:14:28.432000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"at this rate, it’ll be a YES by EoY though",decrease,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T14:18:00.327000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"track record doesn't weigh that heavily to me when it comes to weird insider/meta things on Manifold, but yes, I'm willi",increase,increase,True,True,1123.4781,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-18T14:54:25.416000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Agreed with all this. I bought at 1.7% and was in the middle of selling at 70% because I figured that even if the site w,hold,decrease,False,True,5.0249,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T04:24:47.250000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"No strategy at all. It was resolved prematurely. It should have stayed open until midnight. And for the record, when I r",hold,decrease,False,True,24824.9545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-01T20:13:05.868000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"While I don't think the tele operators are going to be controlling the car all of the time, they are going to be watchin",hold,hold,True,True,66626.258,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T11:56:19.651000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@BTE NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO don' resolve it as yes that would RU,hold,decrease,False,True,50050.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-28T21:59:02.180000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"When @duN, a random account, out of nowhere claims to be a dead French Emperor on the Internet, the statement is worthle",hold,increase,False,True,390.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-02-10T17:49:27.576000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Various reports with videos of 90 minute to 5.5 hour drives without touching steering wheel or pedals. +https://www.you",hold,increase,False,True,3069.6169,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T13:51:51.603000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,But that dynamic (which I might agree is not something we want to generalize) is orthogonal to the point you were making,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:47:50.461000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Would you say the positions are correct? I feel like considering how much you are buying NO, you should be on the top, n",increase,hold,False,True,648.2279,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T12:05:03.317000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Easily proven. Just use a variation of the famous surgeon riddle. By replacing father with mother, the model deduces tha",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-03-20T15:40:44.092000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"he took the image from someone else +https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1737921928482992268",decrease,hold,False,True,1080.0599,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T03:51:42.458000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"there's still a lot of short term games to be played. +Regardless we'll dip back into the low 20s in the next 2 weeks i",decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:48:47.392000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,hahahaha why do you think this market hit 90 and then plummeted,decrease,hold,False,True,1108.9499,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-09T19:49:29.154000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"""Tesla was listed as a ""known"" autonomous vehicle, or AV, operator in Austin +as of June 9 +, according to the Austin D",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-27T18:39:31.051000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"fuh made a market today, after 20h without apparent actions",increase,hold,False,True,502.3492,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-15T19:43:50.397000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,gonna run out some of the forgiveness points it seems...,increase,decrease,False,True,16.5479,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T16:39:34.816000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"is the strict math answer 2? +I’m not trying to be difficult but 3D geometry can get weird and mathematics defines thing",increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T16:39:13.495000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I see nothing wrong with betting on insider information. Insider information can be wrong. +Just as insider trading is k",increase,hold,False,True,40576.02,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:12:25.854000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh no, the criteria is for ""5 separate weeks""?",increase,decrease,False,True,1180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-18T02:33:19.835000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Can't sell a position. Just grays out and close app and reopen and it's still there and can't sell.,hold,decrease,False,True,40000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T16:39:25.045000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE It makes more sense if you interpret the market as a price, not (necessarily) a prediction. It does tend to average",increase,hold,False,True,2620.9124,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:34:54.533000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"In terms of the spirit of the market, I think me and + are already doing that and just haven't gotten around to putting",decrease,increase,False,True,1557.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-31T00:46:44.736000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Spindle well, I used quantum hyperbasian math like you suggested and it checked out.",flip,hold,False,True,4940.3266,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T11:17:55.818000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"i am in NO aswell but that is just a likelyhood thing, but do you think that is whats stopping him loooooool",increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-15T13:15:03.822000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,One more for the arb nerds who want to think like Khan and Kanter.,decrease,hold,False,True,994.8189,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T01:03:24.236000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,bro... D keeps offering her things for free. he doesn't do this with other women...,increase,increase,True,True,2664.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:38:46.459000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"lots of complicated thoughts here +happy to guarantee a payment to MMP $150 from Manifold, less to pay for a marginal po",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T01:45:48.339000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Same for the last hour or two.,increase,hold,False,True,1315.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:33:12.298000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP BTE was here first but was on tilt.,flip,hold,False,True,93.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-02T22:41:54.952000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE I don't see a target in the article, just the price he bought at.",flip,hold,False,True,997.3586,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T08:38:38.580000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"FWIW, I pass the Apley scratch test in both directions",increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T01:38:50.426000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Feel silly for reducing my position now...,decrease,decrease,True,True,337.1781,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:38:48.581000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"yeah, those would be better. if it's any consolation, I think you'll win in the end. lots of volatility mana to be made ",hold,increase,False,True,16.5479,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T21:58:34.115000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall do you really think the resolution criteria is ambiguous?,flip,hold,False,True,2016.762,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:23:35.958000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"is it fake? i only got through about 20secs of it. +I mean, this is some devotion. I kinda respect it.",decrease,decrease,True,True,18.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T19:34:21.867000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"I absolutely defer to your judgment as creator. In case it's helpful, I've tried to thread this needle in +my own versi",hold,decrease,False,True,67.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T21:26:06.605000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,Isaac's limit orders for Yes are gone so I guess not...,decrease,decrease,True,True,702.7189,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-09T15:36:58.342000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I'll sell my YES shares to you in a challenge bet if you're so confident. :D,flip,hold,False,True,34.0581,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:10:59.491000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@jack I set the close based on when Twitter management projected the shareholder vote to be held figuring that by then i,flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:09:17.978000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,yeah im not actually doing it. said it just as a fun sentiment,flip,flip,True,True,12713.1207,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T17:44:36.487000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"wanted to bet Yes cuz it was at 41% but then i realized it's just lagging and is actually at 51% +so i put 10Ṁ on No ins",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-09-21T22:03:41.216000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,haha okay this was epic. Didn't expect this,hold,hold,True,True,7249.1344,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:38:39.069000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"I think a simple recap podcast is valid for resolution, to be clear. But I can also just make this resolve yes with mani",decrease,increase,False,True,1557.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T21:10:40.397000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Hey FUH, no chance Isaac is bribing you to break your streak?",decrease,hold,False,True,725.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T21:49:11.075000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I could not agree more. I would personally rather make markets than trade. Liquidity provision is the most under explore,flip,hold,False,True,20836.6445,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T07:30:05.143000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MP Interesting, thanks for this. Matt Levine has mentioned that consideration too. I might not be taking it seriously e",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:40:02.366000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I am not entirely sure what you are talking about.,flip,decrease,False,True,28781.863,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:52:40.930000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"interesting suggestion. I’d have to consider the finances, though, you know",increase,decrease,False,True,260.7513,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T18:17:33.213000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I think (if true that this market was indeed a scam) it speaks to the trustworthiness of the people involved. +It also i",decrease,decrease,True,True,225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-28T12:24:38.811000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP indeed. I love how little I need to answer questions directed at me on here. This site is starting to become too ,decrease,hold,False,True,5512.8549,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:40:28.762000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"I had been wanting to give Conflux a chance to sell his ""no"" position but I think he's taking a loss here no matter what",decrease,decrease,True,True,1557.043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:55:25.232000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@BTE I've been trading to close the gap between this market and the other one on the assumption that this one would clos,decrease,decrease,True,True,264.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2024-01-03T22:42:46.337000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,I was being a bit rude in retrospect don't worry about it at all,hold,hold,True,True,222.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:47:48.423000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Ah shoot. Five episodes but only 4 with 20+ minutes + can you talk on record here for 20 minutes before EOY pls? 🥺😅",increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:02:23.475000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,U mite have 2 admit I'm a PROPHET not a troll,flip,increase,False,True,69987.158,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T23:42:14.966000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE The main reason would be the usual one: litigation is long, annoying, expensive, and never 100% certain, especially",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-05-03T12:58:25.344000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"That's weird - For months, I never see whalebait unless I'm going into people's profiles and sorting by position size to",hold,decrease,False,True,85.2131,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:51:37.371000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,i sense a controversial resolution incoming,flip,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-03-22T01:07:31.501000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Does it count as romantically involved if Destiny gets invited to a sex party and rails Aella there but never talks to h,decrease,decrease,True,True,82100.0545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:13:51.170000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Twitter Spaces outage is also currently on the front page of TechCrunch: +https://techcrunch.com",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:01:22.832000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"They said below that it has to be something significant enough to be reported on by tech news sites. Specifically: +I pl",flip,hold,False,True,531.5264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-25T22:56:55.195000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Elon's daughter, Vivian, has said that Adrian Dittman is Elon. Not definitive I suppose but some evidence for YES",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:49:20.455000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I'm either dumb or naive or hopeful 😅,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T15:17:41.794000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,Can some affirm or confirm for me the following definitions: Need to verify my understanding aligns with the market and ,flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:41:41.075000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,I have a strange feeling that Manifold has died and we just haven’t been told yet. I hope I am wrong.,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T16:15:37.135000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP LOL. I am like the Paul Tudor Jones of Manifold. Don't fuck with me on the trading floor or I will totally lose m,decrease,increase,False,True,7252.0905,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-09-21T22:00:03.346000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,would you like to bet in this?,increase,hold,False,True,1070.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T16:27:20.584000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"And if the judge doesn't say a thing, because the purchase proceeds as proposed ""O_O""",decrease,flip,False,True,23.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-03T21:35:11.062000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Is this symmetric? +I.e., does it only resolve YES after the appeals process has run its course? +Or does it just requir",flip,decrease,False,True,558.8817,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:39:03.381000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,But this markets close date is three months earlier than the other one's 🤔,decrease,decrease,True,True,264.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-02T14:59:29.283000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"-despite having superficially similar voices (perhaps due to efforts on the part of Dittman), their speaking styles are ",increase,increase,True,True,2642.7034,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-17T01:31:40.465000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Listening to a podcast thing on twitter; I would be very disappointed if this guy was in fact Elon Musk. +https://x.com",increase,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:10:20.980000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,Apparently some children's shoes actually do have left and right markings so I tried the same prompt with penny loafers,decrease,decrease,True,True,1198.9906,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-28T11:48:09.502000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP a recent commenter pointed out that the way it’s worded it could be any Delaware judge so I am going to leave it ,decrease,hold,False,True,5512.8549,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:38:45.431000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Lol, I believe i was ranting at you for trolling this market. It will resolve honorably.",flip,increase,False,True,28781.863,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-04-06T15:43:23.885000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"I wanna sell my NO shares (261 of them), anyone want to put up a limit order? +I don't have a change of opinion but I do",decrease,decrease,True,True,197.1129,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:03:08.694000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"i can close for 5 mins if it gives everyone a peace of mind. once it updates, can reopen.",flip,decrease,False,True,12713.1207,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T08:15:21.308000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"This is fairly egregious imo +. The answer is obviously “not enough info”. Can anyone else replicate?",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:19:13.275000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Apparently it's possible to review market resolutions now,hold,hold,True,True,223.73,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T08:28:52.148000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Evidence equally explained by both theories does nothing in distinguishing them. +There is countless evidence not congru",hold,decrease,False,True,4000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:09:16.354000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,It's running perfectly for me at the moment fingers crossed....but the last hour I couldnt get anything to load,flip,decrease,False,True,9.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T23:53:55.176000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP his free cash all went away due to limit orders and his profit and portfolio numbers went much lower because they,flip,decrease,False,True,3944.1808,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T10:52:11.050000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Delusional coomers thinking Destiny can align his plans with a fortnightly shower schedule,flip,increase,False,True,409.0909,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T16:57:39.834000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"IMO + should just take the L and stop throwing good money after bad. No offense",decrease,decrease,True,True,534.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T10:43:30.400000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"If the service of a feature is unavailable and we haven’t heard a prior announcement of it being discontinued, it meets ",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-12T09:42:52.001000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1932478438775902575 +""BREAKING: First ever Tesla Model Y robotaxi with no-one in the ",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T22:35:26.089000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Yeah it's true that the title and description don't really match, but in this case I interpreted the question title as t",decrease,hold,False,True,1287.4066,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-11-14T00:43:46.920000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,I think this ought resolve yes; it has been at least several weeks since I saw whale bait markets in search or on the fr,decrease,increase,False,True,1138.9356,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T21:09:46.457000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,it's not conclusive until we have video of them together with multiple eye witnesses testifying it's not AI generated.,hold,hold,True,True,6894.1865,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-28T11:45:59.406000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Well, Tesla can now claim they have had a single ride of about 30 miles with no driver and no safety monitor (no passeng",hold,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:07:39.916000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,does api matter for the purposes of this market?,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-08-16T17:48:17.153000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Episode 5 is now out! So all we need is a sixth ep (or Crystal Ballin' / another podcast to become real). The episodes a,increase,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:36:41.443000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,How about ENDING the streak??? Reset?? Fail to maintain??? Now it is much more than mildly annoying....,hold,flip,False,True,2151.2789,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:43:48.510000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I agree, we have all participated in the market with a different understanding of what was described. In this era, only ",decrease,decrease,True,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T07:47:28.010000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"""Not being congruent"" can be a pretty high bar and is therefore not necessarily the right way to think about it when jus",increase,decrease,False,True,51.1552,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:42:42.228000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"This fits all of +'s criteria and more. The Twitter Spaces outage was a longer than 1h major outage that was reported o",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:10:42.608000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,and YOU...you convinced be to sell and buy no lol with 8 hours to go,flip,decrease,False,True,9.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:12:45.993000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,what the heck how did this happen with no one noticing,decrease,decrease,True,True,257.043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-21T21:41:02.615000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"After doing (during this sam altman - openai saga) some of the worst trading on manifold I've ever done or even seen, i ",decrease,decrease,True,True,29521.8091,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-09T11:01:48.531000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,That's what they thought the last 2 times I was all NO,flip,increase,False,True,38227.74,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:35:06.379000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"if you sold your NO, the market went up, which is effectively like buying YES. Even if you've exited the market, any fur",flip,decrease,False,True,12713.1207,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T10:27:24.617000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Spindle Obviously you can waste your money on whatever you want, but shit like this destroys the community. This questi",decrease,hold,False,True,7252.0905,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:42:42.174000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"If that is the case, might as well drop all of our manna on this question 🫠",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:27:47.331000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@jack I deliberately worded the question to be ""ever"" and would include a date in the question if it was material to the",flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T06:16:11.824000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Shadow zephyr asked about the mana so I was responding to them. This would have already been N/A’d if that worked so I a,hold,hold,True,True,24824.9545,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-28T11:47:17.993000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,In the first one he doesn't even sound like Elon,increase,increase,True,True,7143.6339,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T13:39:01.687000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"I agree with everything you're saying in principle, I just don't think it universally works. +For example for the ""you c",decrease,hold,False,True,2100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2024-01-07T10:33:02.992000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Yes probably, as reflected by my position - delisting is akin to a shadowban. There could be arguments around whether it",hold,hold,True,True,496.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:32:01.976000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Take your time. Finishing the fixes tomorrow would be perfect for my bet here!,flip,increase,False,True,230.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T04:00:33.355000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Did people really bid this up to 97% because they didn't know about thinking mode? +lmao",increase,increase,True,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:45:45.550000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Yeah it also suggests looking at manufacturer tags, id numbers, etc. to gather proof of the defect. +Like if you were a ",decrease,increase,False,True,1198.9906,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T04:07:09.718000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall that makes the market INVALID,hold,decrease,False,True,50627.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T20:21:36.417000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,I think you should just make a judgement call as to whether there is a consensus (I think it's pretty clear that there i,hold,increase,False,True,12650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-16T04:03:10.507000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Indeed. This would be a good troll, to get it down to zero forgiveness points, pumping the price, and then buy NO and ke",hold,hold,True,True,1261.2585,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-09-21T22:04:24.978000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,now you can hold 4k of mana hostage at any time. i'm so vulnerable 😭,hold,decrease,False,True,3962.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-23T17:14:35.384000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I've been tricked way too many times with these types of markets where you have to guess what the creator meant by their,flip,decrease,False,True,107.1546,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",hold,hold,True,True,1748.9004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:12:29.024000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Market on if the lawsuit will be settled out of court: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-twitter-and-elon-musk-settle-a,flip,hold,False,True,200.7419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-09T15:35:38.389000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Have I got a market for you...,flip,hold,False,True,34.0581,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:00:35.604000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Nah, he just up to old tricks or has the android phone:",flip,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:46:36.452000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Poll question on the topic (in general, not specific to this market): https://manifold.markets/jack/poll-how-likely-are-",flip,hold,False,True,200.7419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:16:21.405000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"I think I count 4 weeks here? So I guess just one more needed? +Edit: nope it is 5",decrease,decrease,True,True,257.043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:00:51.551000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@ahalekelly Author says ""there is no time limit on this market"" meaning the question is ""Will this ever happen?"" (presum",flip,hold,False,True,200.7419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T11:37:29.426000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I certainly agree that more permissive norms make more sense for more meme/unranked/etc. markets, particularly those wit",decrease,decrease,True,True,6129.8231,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-23T12:50:03.995000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"The layoffs have been in effect for a week now, and the world cup has been going for a few days. There are increased rep",increase,increase,True,True,210.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T15:33:41.367000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"the criteria for market resolution is: +Length of time was longer than 1hr +Major enough to be on the front page of majo",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-08-09T20:00:37.402000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Not a text question so not relevant to the resolution of this market, but I do find it hilarious that it can't find the ",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:33:15.038000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Yea, take time to do it right. Tomorrow 7/18 or heck a few more days is fine too.",increase,hold,False,True,6000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-08T22:40:00.963000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Gigacasting Dude, this is Delaware. You don't know what you are talking about. It will be ruled on very quickly. Musk s",hold,increase,False,True,973.0424,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-22T02:05:38.874000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Online tests are inaccurate anyways.,hold,decrease,False,True,107.1546,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:41:46.386000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,There has been a gradual decline in performance for a few weeks. I think this is the culmination of accumulated issues u,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T21:56:33.062000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@PeterBorah after taking the ""pedo guy"" libel case all the way to trial where he testified he had no money to pay a judg",flip,decrease,False,True,2016.762,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:21:02.230000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Oh, nevermind, Episode 1 doesn't count since it's less than 20 minutes. So this market is approximately equivalent to ""W",decrease,decrease,True,True,179.8294,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T15:30:09.866000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,I think this guarantees a NO resolution,increase,increase,True,True,27376.02,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T21:29:24.219000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"How is this market a scam? A scam implies bettors were deceived, and I don't see any evidence of that",flip,hold,False,True,867.0365,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:35:08.183000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"I assumed the due date was open to extension due to a combination of: + a) no stated deadline + b) the long dur",decrease,hold,False,True,72.5522,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-03-27T23:13:01.439000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"on point two, maybe my English is different but I use the word anywhere to mean at least one place in the world. I could",hold,hold,True,True,28163.7563,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:58:20.871000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,I would say ham sandwiches are much more widely known and much more strongly embedded in the overall textual corpus of s,hold,decrease,False,True,1298.9906,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-25T23:01:40.802000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Not sure this updates me towards YES, tbh",decrease,decrease,True,True,600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:31:17.147000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Do you just go over the percentages displayed on various markets?!,flip,hold,False,True,3.8728,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:20.543000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh this is 5 weeks if we're counting Mon-Sun period +This should resolve yes",increase,increase,True,True,1180.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:36:26.473000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Since @MP hasn't defined exactly what he meant by ""Twitter"", there's bound to be a wide range of expectations. For what ",hold,decrease,False,True,181.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:29:22.016000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP My limit orders are at m1000 because the system won't let me place ones at m2000.,flip,hold,False,True,93.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:14:09.424000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"nope, profit graphs still don't load, displayed trader payouts on market resolve are still incorrect and i can't see my ",flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T17:52:17.150000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Yep, that's just one of many current problems, not that I am complaining (given my position 😄).",increase,hold,False,True,482.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T18:32:01.487000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Alright. Let's meet behind the Wendy's dumpster.,hold,hold,True,True,96.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T11:26:31.622000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I have to admit I can't guess what +'s reasoning is here.",flip,decrease,False,True,251.1035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T09:54:05.254000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I’m really disappointed in your comment. It’s a well used feature that’s been around a while, since long before Musk bou",decrease,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:00:38.045000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Considering the magnitude of problems and the number of people betting on this market because of those problems, a bit m",hold,decrease,False,True,1887.2279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-28T19:52:01.328000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"I dissected Musk's statement a bit here: +https://agifriday.substack.com/p/turkla +I pretty much agree with everyone in",hold,decrease,False,True,67.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-09T00:20:53.250000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Here's another one about a clotheshanger: +https://chatgpt.com/share/68bf6ed9-ee00-8003-8893-63822e345ceb +I have a typ",hold,increase,False,True,637.6209,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-08-09T00:04:47.394000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Is this specifically gpt-5-thinking or whatever is the default gpt-5 on +chatgpt.com +?",hold,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:33:14.443000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,If it's 15 minutes or less I'll listen to it fwiw,decrease,hold,False,True,65.2922,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:26:17.154000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@jack I updated the close date immediately after starting the market I believe, before anyone bet.",flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:31:49.666000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Endlezz clarifications ARE NEEDED cuz u have previouzly indicated u will not resolve NO if the judge is a SCALLYWAG and ,flip,decrease,False,True,66787.158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-20T11:18:02.126000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@jack October though, which is after the close date for this market. @BTE, can you please clarify on your plan here? It ",hold,decrease,False,True,795.0118,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T20:25:58.897000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Thank you for clarification. But if a whale were only ever playing with ""free mana"" and never investing cash..... what",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-18T02:37:30.056000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Sold positions in my own name but do not show in trades and dont dissapear from being able to use sell button, can't sel",hold,decrease,False,True,40000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T11:22:22.450000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"for what it's worth, since I'm probably one you had in mind as thinking bribes are unethical, I'll just mention: +(i) I ",decrease,hold,False,True,6129.8231,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T22:58:27.434000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP my new calculations put a ceiling price at 29%.,flip,decrease,False,True,3944.1808,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T20:59:20.978000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,if you think that only showering every 10 days is going to stop him you are out of your mind,hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-06-11T17:06:48.474000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Gigacasting The financing isn't for Elon, it is for Twitter, which is the party responsible for providing information t",hold,increase,False,True,525.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-16T14:58:32.150000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"Pretty much every investment I've made here has had that time horizon in mind. +Not enough short term markets? +Buy a ",increase,hold,False,True,1257.0687,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:21:24.841000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"For some reason I now can't see my position here, but other markets are working.",decrease,decrease,True,True,45.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-15T19:10:33.327000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Scott Galloway did a great job on his podcast with Kara Swisher today summarizing the way the Delaware courts operate. T,decrease,increase,False,True,2266.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T05:01:26.149000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Hi @traders, I've decided on a resolution method that should be fair to everyone. Given that a market is essentially a c",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:11:32.993000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Correct. This market is about “specific performance”.,flip,hold,False,True,28781.863,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T16:57:18.713000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Yes this blew up really quickly. I sold my HUGE position as soon as I saw the headline. Ended up executing a ton of limi,flip,decrease,False,True,21065.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:34:30.925000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"there's a psychic battle happening here, and Joshua is going to lose it",decrease,decrease,True,True,65.2922,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T15:21:13.958000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Then why was it front page news? If it’s a major news story, it meets the criteria that + laid out. If being front page",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T10:52:55.571000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"There’s been an outage longer than an hour, reported on the front page of Tech Crunch and techememe. It appears major if",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T15:36:22.533000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"In case it comes down to the line, California's time must be used to determine a resolution for this market. +I'm thinki",flip,decrease,False,True,198.9039,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-31T17:21:53.115000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Just realized @MartinRandall shot past me in total profit based on this market alone. Are he and @Spindle actually secre,increase,hold,False,True,834.7938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-06-18T20:05:19.203000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,what’s the base rate for opposite gender streamers who live in different cities and never met irl but did a few streams ,hold,decrease,False,True,145223.0468,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-05-21T01:19:46.889000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Gigacasting nope, totally backwards. Twitter literally holds all of the cards. The law is 100 percent on their side. Mu",hold,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:28:15.581000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"""Home"" > ""For you"" is not working, just says it's out of cards. The profit stats are either not showing at all or are st",increase,hold,False,True,648.2279,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-05-03T12:48:37.523000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Yes, i was excited, but there's still plenty of whalebait in my feed and in the 'related markets' sidebar",hold,decrease,False,True,205.6333,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-05-03T04:48:47.566000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"this seems rather extreme and rather a sharp discontinuity from their laissez-faire approach in the past. +Counterpropos",increase,decrease,False,True,1302.3953,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-17T21:40:12.345000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"primarily off +https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1626468035333656576 + while I still think its a NO, but it became ",increase,decrease,False,True,2768.8322,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:57:20.027000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Another thing I'll mention is that the description for this one currently includes ""Close date updated to 2022-09-27 11:",decrease,hold,False,True,264.5983,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-02T22:49:38.686000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MartinRandall ah, I misinterpreted the comment about his stake as his price target.",hold,hold,True,True,1034.7938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:18:05.761000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,You are a troll no doubt. I never would have placed the limit orders that ended up causing me to lose 150 percent of my ,flip,decrease,False,True,21065.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-22T02:24:21.424000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I don't click links like that am I about to get rick rolled?,hold,hold,True,True,107.1546,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-04T04:39:31.940000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"Yeah, can vouch for Isaac being super trustworthy. Long record of accurate resolutions",increase,hold,False,True,170.8965,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T23:35:24.702000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@PeterBorah I have been thinking about this and can't see any reason to even engage in further discussion with Musk from,hold,increase,False,True,2166.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:25:31.416000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MartinRandall I get that. I started this market a month and a half before this was even a hypothetical scenario, so the",flip,increase,False,True,1859.7802,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:10:23.332000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@BTE I'm confused what you were unhappy about? If anything he helped you by letting you get more shares at a better pric,increase,hold,False,True,365.7938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:53:24.496000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,It's the website that's failing,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T19:09:27.574000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I mentioned on Discord but also saying here: he created a market last week,increase,hold,False,True,1890.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-09-21T21:59:51.208000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,I'm at 271 now with 7 streak-forgiveness points.,increase,decrease,False,True,1070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-03-07T19:14:37.293000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"dittmann somehow got the scoop on an upcoming twitter feature? +https://twitter.com/AdrianDittmann/status/1765650682156",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d38f626808cdd494f2cae56d0fa88a12f64c3cf2 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,295 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:42:42.174000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"If that is the case, might as well drop all of our manna on this question 🫠",flip,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:31:54.739000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,At best the staff comes back to the office and rolled back the code to Friday. At worst it’s a full system meltdown that,flip,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:41:41.075000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,I have a strange feeling that Manifold has died and we just haven’t been told yet. I hope I am wrong.,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-16T14:51:16.498000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I've yet to be able to figure out exactly how much gets apportioned to loan repayment and how from trying to mine the co,increase,decrease,False,True,1257.0687,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:41:46.386000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,There has been a gradual decline in performance for a few weeks. I think this is the culmination of accumulated issues u,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:23:35.958000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"is it fake? i only got through about 20secs of it. +I mean, this is some devotion. I kinda respect it.",decrease,decrease,True,True,18.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T15:04:44.098000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Would you mind explaining how it would mean effectively quitting manifold?,hold,hold,True,True,1887.2279,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-16T14:58:32.150000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"Pretty much every investment I've made here has had that time horizon in mind. +Not enough short term markets? +Buy a ",increase,hold,False,True,1257.0687,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:13:11.315000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I fucked this up royally last time so before I do anything does anyone object to me updating the market close date to th,flip,decrease,False,True,1859.7802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:07:39.916000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,does api matter for the purposes of this market?,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T17:05:47.143000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"If only I had cancelled my limit orders before hitting SELL!!! I executed at 40, 35, 30, 25, 20 … basically everything I",flip,decrease,False,True,21065.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-05T13:50:47.632000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,This answer seems to overlook the possibility of a third party attempting to perform denial of service or to gain access,hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T17:36:22.327000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"@NivlacM + egregious is of course a relative term so I imagine something like a median human would be the baseline",increase,hold,False,True,1088.1532,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T21:10:40.397000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Hey FUH, no chance Isaac is bribing you to break your streak?",decrease,hold,False,True,725.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:33:15.038000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Yea, take time to do it right. Tomorrow 7/18 or heck a few more days is fine too.",increase,hold,False,True,6000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T08:50:24.313000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"I agree with you on the second part, the consensus bit is quite meaningless considering the market already exists and yo",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-02-10T17:49:27.576000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Various reports with videos of 90 minute to 5.5 hour drives without touching steering wheel or pedals. +https://www.you",hold,increase,False,True,3069.6169,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:29:22.016000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP My limit orders are at m1000 because the system won't let me place ones at m2000.,flip,hold,False,True,93.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-03-07T19:23:06.265000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"it certainly wouldn't be his first alt account +https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-twitter-alt-second-account-ermnmusk-revea",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T10:43:30.400000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"If the service of a feature is unavailable and we haven’t heard a prior announcement of it being discontinued, it meets ",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-17T21:39:13.009000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"I think the most appropriate way to extend this market would be to change the expiration to the ""drop dead"" date on the ",decrease,hold,False,True,2781.5329,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-02T22:41:54.952000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE I don't see a target in the article, just the price he bought at.",flip,hold,False,True,997.3586,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-31T17:36:46.494000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP I'm CAHOOTING and FLAUNTING THE SEC INSIDER TRADLING STATUES. NO one knowz how deep the conspiracy goez. Snouts a,hold,hold,True,True,50127.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:31:49.666000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Endlezz clarifications ARE NEEDED cuz u have previouzly indicated u will not resolve NO if the judge is a SCALLYWAG and ,flip,decrease,False,True,66787.158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T19:00:49.974000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Hard to resist buying at this price, even with the recent news, since +he already committed to buy twitter once! + I th",decrease,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:43:48.510000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I agree, we have all participated in the market with a different understanding of what was described. In this era, only ",decrease,decrease,True,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T14:00:31.561000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Whut will u do if the first judge says PAY SUM money butt then Twitter appealz,flip,decrease,False,True,66787.158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-23T14:17:56.752000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I disagree. I find it likely that short staff coverage might be even worse over the holidays,hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-07-04T02:57:34.074000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"regarding Tesla employees in the car, this seems to conflict with the spirit of the market and your comments here: +http",hold,decrease,False,True,501.9862,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T23:48:35.987000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,I'm looking for an incorrect person who wants to fill my limit orders,decrease,decrease,True,True,2021.7111,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T15:30:09.866000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,I think this guarantees a NO resolution,increase,increase,True,True,27376.02,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T13:43:42.712000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@Spindle Of course then I learned he is actually claiming Twitter owes him damages!! So logic and reason have long been ,hold,decrease,False,True,14478.5448,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:25:31.416000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MartinRandall I get that. I started this market a month and a half before this was even a hypothetical scenario, so the",flip,increase,False,True,1859.7802,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T23:58:50.046000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE With respect, I think you need to read both people's comments and the legal analysis you're relying on more careful",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:40:02.366000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I am not entirely sure what you are talking about.,flip,decrease,False,True,28781.863,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T08:44:45.879000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"""Evidence equally explained by both theories does nothing in distinguishing them."" +If by this you just mean the evidenc",increase,hold,False,True,51.1552,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-18T14:43:45.601000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Also I'm seeing ""No Groups yet"" when I try to add this market to a group. That can't be right, given that I've created t",hold,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:19:50.782000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"The Market Manipulation Podcast is all of these once we release our fifth episode, right? (Four episodes are out and our",flip,increase,False,True,330.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T08:38:38.580000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"FWIW, I pass the Apley scratch test in both directions",increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-03-20T15:40:44.092000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"he took the image from someone else +https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1737921928482992268",decrease,hold,False,True,1080.0599,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-05-21T01:42:55.787000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Gigacasting you are correct about the banks also potentially killing the deal, but why the hell would they ever do that",hold,decrease,False,True,45.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-09-21T22:00:03.346000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,would you like to bet in this?,increase,hold,False,True,1070.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-21T00:10:27.071000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"I don't know, as long as it's fun",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:32:07.390000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,For real?! Weird. Should have just waited for it to resolve.,flip,decrease,False,True,749.5619,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:36:31.209000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"With BTE's other market, the lack of an instrinsic trigger for a NO resolution make me assume the close date was that so",decrease,hold,False,True,72.5522,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T16:50:28.250000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,Okay y'all let's negotiate: what percent do we have to keep this at so that Isaac promotes but Mira doesn't demote?,increase,hold,False,True,6847.8919,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T19:52:11.768000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,But they would all know what pinky fingers are.,decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:14:55.408000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@jfjurchen yeah, there is no time limit on this market, but it would resolve YES as soon as the judge issues the order, ",flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T06:04:49.702000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"agree that this is relevant. If you have a YES position in this market, you'd be a fool not to bet NO and increase the o",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T16:39:25.045000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE It makes more sense if you interpret the market as a price, not (necessarily) a prediction. It does tend to average",increase,hold,False,True,2620.9124,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-06-06T22:54:14.159000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE but still a very specific story of how it plays out, I reckon.",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-10T17:14:52.871000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,would a short squeeze count as romantic involvement or would it have to be longer?,hold,decrease,False,True,517.4405,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-07T22:13:39.163000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"This should not be lower than this market: +https://manifold.markets/SG/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-this-yea + since it'",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T07:12:06.963000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinSicilian there is no $1B blackout fee for Musk. Twitter management CANNOT accept $1B when they are contractually ,hold,increase,False,True,1023.0424,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:00:38.045000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Considering the magnitude of problems and the number of people betting on this market because of those problems, a bit m",hold,decrease,False,True,1887.2279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-18T14:54:25.416000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Agreed with all this. I bought at 1.7% and was in the middle of selling at 70% because I figured that even if the site w,hold,decrease,False,True,5.0249,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-09-21T21:59:51.208000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,I'm at 271 now with 7 streak-forgiveness points.,increase,decrease,False,True,1070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T13:51:51.603000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,But that dynamic (which I might agree is not something we want to generalize) is orthogonal to the point you were making,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T17:52:17.150000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Yep, that's just one of many current problems, not that I am complaining (given my position 😄).",increase,hold,False,True,482.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T10:52:55.571000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"There’s been an outage longer than an hour, reported on the front page of Tech Crunch and techememe. It appears major if",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-05-19T02:28:40.269000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,Thanks! I agree that we're unlikely to end up in this particular corner case but I want to get this clarified in my own ,increase,hold,False,True,2.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:55:25.232000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@BTE I've been trading to close the gap between this market and the other one on the assumption that this one would clos,decrease,decrease,True,True,264.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T07:31:05.568000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"It is extremely hard for a business to turn off their most (in this case, basically only) revenue source",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-08-09T07:34:33.811000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"My own test of what + posted earlier",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T22:17:48.348000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"they made an update, admitting that the screenshots are fake.",increase,increase,True,True,125.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-03T21:35:11.062000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Is this symmetric? +I.e., does it only resolve YES after the appeals process has run its course? +Or does it just requir",increase,decrease,False,True,558.8817,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T11:15:30.038000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@BTE noise traders are just subsidizing the market. Nothing is destroyed.,increase,hold,False,True,11.6593,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T09:30:37.135000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,Here's a generic version of this question that I think could be asked word-for-word to most people on the street regardl,increase,increase,True,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:49:20.455000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I'm either dumb or naive or hopeful 😅,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:11:17.021000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"I trust @BTE decision. +I lost 40k Mana, but it is what it is. +I would've liked to see it resolved N/A personally.",hold,decrease,False,True,40000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:48:47.392000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,hahahaha why do you think this market hit 90 and then plummeted,decrease,hold,False,True,1108.9499,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2024-01-29T05:37:15.659000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"There are only so many ""non traditional"" women in the world and Destiny is on a quest to catch them all",increase,increase,True,True,410.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:18:05.761000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,You are a troll no doubt. I never would have placed the limit orders that ended up causing me to lose 150 percent of my ,flip,decrease,False,True,21065.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-21T21:41:02.615000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"After doing (during this sam altman - openai saga) some of the worst trading on manifold I've ever done or even seen, i ",decrease,decrease,True,True,29521.8091,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-27T19:35:52.385000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,note: I just learned it doesn't count as a thing that extends the streak,increase,decrease,False,True,502.3492,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T19:09:27.574000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I mentioned on Discord but also saying here: he created a market last week,increase,hold,False,True,1890.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-26T14:57:09.895000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,people seem to take this as face value which i think misses the point. this market is going to spike every time they bot,flip,hold,False,True,386.3657,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:27:00.119000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,not been a good day for trading oh no it has not,flip,decrease,False,True,12271.1094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T02:51:04.201000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Doesn't it create incentives for market manipulation?,decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:21:24.841000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"For some reason I now can't see my position here, but other markets are working.",decrease,decrease,True,True,45.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:42:10.938000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,haha I was doing that thing where I was unrealistically hopeful that Conflux would end up cross-posting the Manifold Liv,increase,decrease,False,True,1880.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:14:02.100000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"scratch that again i'm illiterate +I'm going to stop commenting and multitasking lol",increase,decrease,False,True,1180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:29:14.522000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP buby I probably know a lot you dont,hold,hold,True,True,50055.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-06-20T12:07:04.150000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"I think this is still unlikely, because of how many steps it would take to get there. We have to assume: + +1) Twitter d",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T10:27:24.617000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Spindle Obviously you can waste your money on whatever you want, but shit like this destroys the community. This questi",decrease,hold,False,True,7252.0905,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T11:04:34.894000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,This is egregious. Seems immediately obvious it is 2.,flip,increase,False,True,240.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:02:23.475000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,U mite have 2 admit I'm a PROPHET not a troll,flip,increase,False,True,69987.158,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:00:51.551000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@ahalekelly Author says ""there is no time limit on this market"" meaning the question is ""Will this ever happen?"" (presum",flip,hold,False,True,200.7419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T21:49:11.075000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I could not agree more. I would personally rather make markets than trade. Liquidity provision is the most under explore,flip,hold,False,True,20836.6445,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:28:40.806000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@jfjurchen The other market updated the close date just last week I believe after being open for a couple months.,flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T06:22:26.631000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Yeah this is an impossible conversation to have without bias. The admins will do what the admins think is fair. I'll be ,hold,decrease,False,True,5.0249,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:38:39.069000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"I think a simple recap podcast is valid for resolution, to be clear. But I can also just make this resolve yes with mani",decrease,increase,False,True,1557.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:12:45.993000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,what the heck how did this happen with no one noticing,decrease,decrease,True,True,257.043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:27:47.331000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@jack I deliberately worded the question to be ""ever"" and would include a date in the question if it was material to the",flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:13:12.367000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Also why aren't you betting more,decrease,increase,False,True,257.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:34:05.164000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"uhh the phrasing is weird but this is about +breaking + the streak. an anti-addiction challenge incentivization",hold,hold,True,True,16.5479,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-27T14:03:39.527000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,Delisting aka shadowbanning is a pretty big restriction that I would have expected to be sufficient to resolve this yes,increase,decrease,False,True,1102.3953,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:31:17.147000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Do you just go over the percentages displayed on various markets?!,flip,hold,False,True,3.8728,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T13:01:00.973000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,I guess my only real hesitation here is that there's some weird insider deal happening between FUH and Isaac? That would,decrease,decrease,True,True,771.6312,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T19:00:06.387000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Yes, I believe that qualifies. My original wording was ""Open to non Tesla employees."" The ""available to the general publ",decrease,hold,False,True,61585.426,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-28T21:44:05.711000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"he said 1 on Dec 25 and has made trades on Dec 26, 27, and 28, so I think it's still 1 if he's being honest. Granted, I ",increase,decrease,False,True,354.1594,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-23T16:40:18.721000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"""relationship"" implies it's more than a one nightstand or prostitution +Good luck with that because one lives in Austin ",decrease,increase,False,True,24081.3427,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:14:09.424000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"nope, profit graphs still don't load, displayed trader payouts on market resolve are still incorrect and i can't see my ",flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-01T01:30:37.608000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Anyone who doubts this, oh boi ur in for a rude awakening",hold,increase,False,True,419.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:16:17.714000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Hmm, what would a settlement after the court rules look like, and why would they do that? Do you mean something like the",hold,decrease,False,True,1878.004,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T14:45:52.351000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"You've only proven that there is a way for the model to solve the amended riddle correctly. However, the market topic is",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-22T07:52:24.964000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MP irrelevant, this market only cares about the initial ruling by the Delaware court. + +Do you mean the US Supreme Co",decrease,hold,False,True,2979.9205,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T07:27:20.655000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"What if rather than comingling free mana and bought mana, keep them segregated. Each market could either be restricted ",flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:10:59.491000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@jack I set the close based on when Twitter management projected the shareholder vote to be held figuring that by then i,flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-02T20:02:26.668000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall This market is short Musk giving up and complying and Musk and Twitter settling. It'd be more useful if i,increase,decrease,False,True,240.1484,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T17:44:36.487000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"wanted to bet Yes cuz it was at 41% but then i realized it's just lagging and is actually at 51% +so i put 10Ṁ on No ins",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-08-29T23:20:30.674000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,my interpretation before you made the clarification about safety monitors was that it would resolve yes as you had speci,increase,decrease,False,True,1250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T18:38:32.403000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"actually, Mira has like 23k in incorrectly calculated losses that presumably would be fixed to prevent her demotion 😅",increase,hold,False,True,6847.8919,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T03:52:11.970000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Try ""Without searching it up, is there a seahorse emoji on IOS?"".",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-06-28T02:54:09.083000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"The new policy is to not subsidize them, which is not really a restriction, and to limit mana purchases per day, which i",decrease,hold,False,True,166.1668,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T05:58:33.771000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Spaces was down for longer than an hour from a ""legacy bug"". That should definitely count as a major outage. +https://fo",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-09T19:49:29.154000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"""Tesla was listed as a ""known"" autonomous vehicle, or AV, operator in Austin +as of June 9 +, according to the Austin D",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-28T05:51:38.712000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@hamnox Has to be a ruling of ""specific performance"" or close at terms agreed in contract. Any settlement or a ruling th",decrease,hold,False,True,5512.8549,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-22T13:39:50.006000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MP oh that is a really good point! I need to think about that for a minute.,decrease,decrease,True,True,2979.9205,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:47:50.461000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Would you say the positions are correct? I feel like considering how much you are buying NO, you should be on the top, n",increase,hold,False,True,648.2279,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T21:56:33.062000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@PeterBorah after taking the ""pedo guy"" libel case all the way to trial where he testified he had no money to pay a judg",flip,decrease,False,True,2016.762,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-28T11:37:44.779000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,What time zone is activity based on? FUH had a trade 8 hours ago which probably counts for the 27th? So 4 days to go wit,decrease,decrease,True,True,1276.7511,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:38:09.365000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Agreed! Like if all of Twitter went down for 15 hours for ""planned maintenance"" then I would hope that would qualify as ",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T16:57:18.713000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Yes this blew up really quickly. I sold my HUGE position as soon as I saw the headline. Ended up executing a ton of limi,flip,decrease,False,True,21065.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:43:18.418000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Yes, I value mana well below the purchase price. +Also, $100 might actually be too low. I’ll think more and try to get ",increase,decrease,False,True,1838.6829,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:06:34.859000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,I feel like we shouldn't use the close mechanism for stuff like that tbh.,decrease,hold,False,True,1749.4764,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T22:59:33.234000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,nice one - thanks for the update David! 🙌,hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:25:11.132000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"FWIW I bet on this market under the interpretation of ""ever"", not ""by close date"". I'm not sure what the close date was ",flip,decrease,False,True,200.7419,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-03T19:37:26.370000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"It resolves NO if Musk is permitted to pull out of the deal by all judges in Delaware who rule on the case, so presumabl",flip,hold,False,True,28501.863,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-09T01:11:32.705000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Here is my thought process: +I’m new to the site. I have very limited funds. I can’t afford to bet on questions that tak",hold,hold,True,True,125.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:11:32.993000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Correct. This market is about “specific performance”.,flip,hold,False,True,28781.863,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T20:09:00.338000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"ya, the description is misleading lol. The speaker is talking about a tweet referencing DITTMAN as ""I"".",decrease,hold,False,True,4392.7034,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:01:22.832000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"They said below that it has to be something significant enough to be reported on by tech news sites. Specifically: +I pl",flip,hold,False,True,531.5264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T18:17:33.213000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I think (if true that this market was indeed a scam) it speaks to the trustworthiness of the people involved. +It also i",decrease,decrease,True,True,225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T21:29:24.219000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"How is this market a scam? A scam implies bettors were deceived, and I don't see any evidence of that",flip,hold,False,True,867.0365,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T20:44:14.293000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"If I may make a case for YES here: I think this query satisfies the letter and spirit of your criteria. GPT-5 Thinking """,decrease,increase,False,True,650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T07:09:25.696000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Not a disliker + monarchy is cringe but tbh the all rampantly homophobic ppl are secretly gay thing is kinda weird. Can ,decrease,decrease,True,True,2100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-05T20:49:48.615000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Congrats on tricking the bots into buying so much yes,increase,hold,False,True,3254.1867,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T23:35:24.702000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@PeterBorah I have been thinking about this and can't see any reason to even engage in further discussion with Musk from,decrease,increase,False,True,2166.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-11-14T00:43:46.920000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,I think this ought resolve yes; it has been at least several weeks since I saw whale bait markets in search or on the fr,decrease,increase,False,True,1138.9356,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-28T12:17:57.570000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE gotcha, so if Twitter wins ""specific performance"" on the initial litigation but eventually loses on appeal, the mar",hold,hold,True,True,661.7938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-05T01:18:45.749000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1577428272056389633 +This suggests Musk is beginning the ""I actually want to ",hold,flip,False,True,2.104,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-16T00:38:34.647000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"Except if I in turn found any alpha +anywhere + else on the site, I could invest in the short term market instead, then",increase,hold,False,True,1257.0687,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-15T22:56:31.470000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP Twitter has specifically asked for it to be done before 9/27 and they are likely to get that because they have a ,hold,increase,False,True,2781.5329,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-19T18:15:45.435000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Judge has ordered that the trial is set for October, Musk lost on his motion to delay to 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2022/",increase,decrease,False,True,661.5867,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T15:36:22.533000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"In case it comes down to the line, California's time must be used to determine a resolution for this market. +I'm thinki",flip,decrease,False,True,198.9039,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T16:08:06.542000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Want to do a challenge bet? I will let you choose the terms.,decrease,hold,False,True,18611.2197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:33:12.298000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP BTE was here first but was on tilt.,flip,hold,False,True,93.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-22T02:16:19.127000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"You should take +this one + instead, it's more accurate.",decrease,flip,False,True,3.4219,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-01T13:31:05.969000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,By 'break' do you mean 'hit' or 'end'?,flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:35:08.183000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"I assumed the due date was open to extension due to a combination of: + a) no stated deadline + b) the long dur",decrease,hold,False,True,72.5522,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T13:41:43.983000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@BTE That is SOME LOGIC THERE!,hold,hold,True,True,50627.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T13:55:26.107000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,why would that count as a failure?,increase,increase,True,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:34:41.899000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,This is my current losses on the market. I really thought it was easy to break the streak. its not,flip,decrease,False,True,12271.1094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T19:29:01.170000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,There is obviouzly a bug. I correctly predicted this event and LOZT BIG,hold,decrease,False,True,63800.9802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:12:29.024000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Market on if the lawsuit will be settled out of court: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-twitter-and-elon-musk-settle-a,flip,hold,False,True,200.7419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-26T22:04:35.419000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I’ll help if you buy out my NO at 50,increase,decrease,False,True,1748.3984,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T16:25:32.154000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE There were initially two sets of loans. A margin loan on Tesla stock, which is indeed gone now, and a package of lo",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:00:35.604000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Nah, he just up to old tricks or has the android phone:",flip,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:14:28.432000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"at this rate, it’ll be a YES by EoY though",decrease,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-11T09:29:08.896000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"This is a lesson being taught to all of us. AI interacting with the populace and measuring perception, stimulating biase",hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:09:17.978000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,yeah im not actually doing it. said it just as a fun sentiment,flip,flip,True,True,12713.1207,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:33:59.200000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@jfjurchen my relatively uninformed opinion is that if it went to court there probably wouldn't be a ruling until next y,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-03T23:31:01.454000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,thiz has been a source of RANK CONFUSION since the bet wuz first proposed. Also unclear: Whether Musk agreez to buy twit,flip,decrease,False,True,66787.158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:33:14.443000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,If it's 15 minutes or less I'll listen to it fwiw,decrease,hold,False,True,65.2922,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-09-21T08:37:09.803000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,How many fucking Aella x Destiny markets are there??? (pun intended; looking through the comments on this one),hold,hold,True,True,1.4925,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-12T05:13:55.779000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"they always move the goal post, they don’t understand this at all fundamental level",hold,decrease,False,True,419.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T12:39:44.141000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,- The most amusing option available to you would be to double head fake and actually not break the streak.,hold,hold,True,True,6290.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:01:14.507000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Have y'all ever been trauched? Like so bad it hurtz? I kno I have,flip,hold,False,True,69987.158,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:32.610000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I wonder if this podcast was made for this market. Ep 1 is exactly 1sec longer than it needs to be,decrease,decrease,True,True,18.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:24:15.497000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"agree - if it's related, I hope the market was just the impetus but the intention is to continue creating episodes? +I'm",increase,decrease,False,True,1880.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:09:16.354000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,It's running perfectly for me at the moment fingers crossed....but the last hour I couldnt get anything to load,flip,decrease,False,True,9.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T11:31:09.389000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I think this market is very clearly labeled as a meme market. Bribery, collusion, and general tomfoolery were always to ",flip,decrease,False,True,867.0365,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T14:18:00.327000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"track record doesn't weigh that heavily to me when it comes to weird insider/meta things on Manifold, but yes, I'm willi",decrease,increase,False,True,1123.4781,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-17T01:31:40.465000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Listening to a podcast thing on twitter; I would be very disappointed if this guy was in fact Elon Musk. +https://x.com",increase,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T01:24:26.953000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Back now for me, but looking like that was over an hour if 713 EST was the right start time. I was still locked out at 8",increase,decrease,False,True,541.8775,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T13:49:11.418000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"A mother and her son were in a very serious car accident. When taken to the hospital, a surgeon looks at the little boy ",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T19:57:12.939000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@Spindle it’s about him being irrational and the consequences of that. Thinking the market has ever priced this deal rig,hold,increase,False,True,8568.6835,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:55:45.061000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"@BTE Man, that hurt... I can't believe a quality assurance person would call this state of things ""fixed and working con",hold,decrease,False,True,1887.2279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:20.543000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh this is 5 weeks if we're counting Mon-Sun period +This should resolve yes",increase,increase,True,True,1180.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:51:37.371000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,i sense a controversial resolution incoming,flip,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T16:10:53.758000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Elon Derangement Syndrome: The Market,flip,hold,False,True,6994.1865,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:30:32.660000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,why don't you just break the streak? wtf,flip,decrease,False,True,124.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-06-18T20:05:19.203000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,what’s the base rate for opposite gender streamers who live in different cities and never met irl but did a few streams ,hold,decrease,False,True,145223.0468,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T16:15:37.135000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP LOL. I am like the Paul Tudor Jones of Manifold. Don't fuck with me on the trading floor or I will totally lose m,decrease,increase,False,True,7252.0905,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T15:17:41.794000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,Can some affirm or confirm for me the following definitions: Need to verify my understanding aligns with the market and ,flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-04-17T12:44:15.860000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,#thetagang she hasn’t even been on stream in a long while,decrease,increase,False,True,93873.9963,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:54:01.719000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,shame you can't write off instances like this (in which your decisions help strangers earn mana) as charitable donations,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-12T22:29:32.214000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,someone keeps moving the goalposts for sure,hold,hold,True,True,1006.7659,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-06T23:32:25.757000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,the temp chat is gone but I used the exact prompt from this reply thread,decrease,hold,False,True,110.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-31T17:37:58.670000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I will either rugpull or invest THE REMAINDER OF MY MANA in this market based on a SECRET TREASURE HUNT to be revealed l,hold,decrease,False,True,50127.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-06T19:24:22.900000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"The Musk team seems very interested in getting the case to stop: +https://mobile.twitter.com/kateconger/status/157809762",hold,decrease,False,True,2.104,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-17T21:59:32.374000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@BTE I'm not convinced the 10/24 date applies here. The text of the filing says about the right to terminate if the deal,increase,increase,True,True,620.6755,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-23T17:14:35.384000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I've been tricked way too many times with these types of markets where you have to guess what the creator meant by their,flip,decrease,False,True,107.1546,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T05:16:19.254000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,You mean like if the context gets so large context rot sets in?,increase,decrease,False,True,1088.1532,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T20:25:58.897000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Thank you for clarification. But if a whale were only ever playing with ""free mana"" and never investing cash..... what",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:19:13.275000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Apparently it's possible to review market resolutions now,hold,hold,True,True,223.73,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T23:48:11.182000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@PeterBorah I haven't seen a single legal opinion that says Musk has a leg to stand on in court. I don't think court is ,decrease,decrease,True,True,2166.762,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-16T21:27:35.183000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@NathanYoung Then it's solved to no,hold,flip,False,True,240.1484,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-07-06T23:48:16.930000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"I'm hoping for a response to this comment that @harpizj made: +@GabeGarboden regarding Tesla employees in the car, this ",hold,decrease,False,True,70049.4221,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T22:47:21.273000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,submitted after the cutoff date for one thing.,hold,decrease,False,True,125.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-09T01:27:50.959000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"You're not going to persuade anyone by scolding them. +If there is any salvaging this bet I think it would be to assert ",hold,decrease,False,True,1298.9906,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:40:28.762000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"I had been wanting to give Conflux a chance to sell his ""no"" position but I think he's taking a loss here no matter what",decrease,decrease,True,True,1557.043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:33:56.539000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MartinRandall that was probably a good move. Like I said, I started this market because I wanted to draw attention to t",flip,decrease,False,True,1859.7802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:10:42.608000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,and YOU...you convinced be to sell and buy no lol with 8 hours to go,flip,decrease,False,True,9.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:32:39.285000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Oh, I should give a disclaimer: that price would be for me to commit right now. As the year goes on and I have a better ",increase,decrease,False,True,1838.6829,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-09T15:35:38.389000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Have I got a market for you...,flip,hold,False,True,34.0581,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:41:35.694000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,It only requires a Delaware judge to order specific performance. It resolves YES as soon as that happens. Does not matte,flip,hold,False,True,28781.863,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-07T09:34:24.118000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"No, I don't think that's possible",hold,hold,True,True,58025.411,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T16:27:04.224000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MattP @spindle guys, it took me a month to really figure this thing out and I was crushing it the last 4 days thinking ",decrease,decrease,True,True,7252.0905,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-18T03:41:49.847000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"I agree that I fucked up and would like to have it N/A too +. Idk WTF I was thinking honestly. I was so happy to see my",hold,flip,False,True,24824.9545,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-03-28T23:35:39.680000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,This is where manifold generates most of their revenue. I don't see them thinking these are bad,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-27T05:14:36.641000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Let's see if Mr.Girl was right lol!,hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T07:28:30.848000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"I see a big spike, I don't see any evidence that Manifold is unhappy about them. To the contrary, they are quite happy t",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T11:26:31.622000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I have to admit I can't guess what +'s reasoning is here.",flip,decrease,False,True,251.1035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-06T18:58:56.356000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"""I think you missed the joke"" is equivalent to telling it ""you're answer is wrong, this is a prank type question, and yo",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T08:29:25.884000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"I don't sincerely believe that all (or even most) homophobic people are secretly gay, but I made the comment for a few r",hold,hold,True,True,1257.3907,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:32:01.976000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Take your time. Finishing the fixes tomorrow would be perfect for my bet here!,flip,increase,False,True,230.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-31T00:46:44.736000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Spindle well, I used quantum hyperbasian math like you suggested and it checked out.",flip,hold,False,True,4940.3266,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:34:30.925000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"there's a psychic battle happening here, and Joshua is going to lose it",decrease,decrease,True,True,65.2922,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-03-22T01:07:31.501000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Does it count as romantically involved if Destiny gets invited to a sex party and rails Aella there but never talks to h,decrease,decrease,True,True,82100.0545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-05-15T18:33:08.234000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,at 6%/month for 19 months that adds up to a lot of banging,decrease,increase,False,True,126526.0992,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T15:33:41.367000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"the criteria for market resolution is: +Length of time was longer than 1hr +Major enough to be on the front page of majo",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:12:25.854000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh no, the criteria is for ""5 separate weeks""?",increase,decrease,False,True,1180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:35:12.280000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,regardless of the outcome and opinions here I hope it's a fun ongoing project for you! ✨,increase,hold,False,True,1880.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T19:21:29.176000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Keep in mind, they have been testing with employees in California and Texas (e.g. people commuting to the factory) for a",increase,increase,True,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-02T20:17:51.811000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"inb4 Manifold will get a nice late Chrismas present of $30,000 in Mana purchase.",hold,increase,False,True,65.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:18:14.194000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Twitter Spaces outage was also on the front page of techmeme: +https://www.techmeme.com/221216/h0810",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-22T19:49:30.955000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I find it truly remarkable how little Elon seems to know about statistics. Either that or it was a joke all along. http,hold,decrease,False,True,3079.9205,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-01-14T17:51:30.878000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"if the car has a driver, it is not autonomous. A safety driver is still a driver.",hold,increase,False,True,33271.0036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-21T18:10:31.565000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@M yes I thought this was obvious but to clarify any ruling other than ”specific performance” resolves the question NO.,decrease,hold,False,True,2979.9205,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T23:42:14.966000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE The main reason would be the usual one: litigation is long, annoying, expensive, and never 100% certain, especially",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:55:13.131000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I'm getting the same issue. Can't use the web version. Haven't tried the app.,flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:36:26.473000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Since @MP hasn't defined exactly what he meant by ""Twitter"", there's bound to be a wide range of expectations. For what ",hold,decrease,False,True,181.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T01:49:15.221000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Hah. Wish I stuck with my original bet and bought more. ty.,increase,increase,True,True,195.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T08:22:40.636000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"right, I understand this is a limitation of current AI, which is exactly the point. A genuinely intelligent system would",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T21:58:34.115000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall do you really think the resolution criteria is ambiguous?,flip,hold,False,True,2016.762,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-15T19:43:50.397000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,gonna run out some of the forgiveness points it seems...,increase,decrease,False,True,16.5479,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T22:08:18.706000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/opinion/twitter-elon-musk.html +Strong take here for a judgement ordering Musk to com",decrease,increase,False,True,2166.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T09:29:41.216000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Adrian Dittmann is probably intentionally trying to appear to be Musk. (or that might not even be Dittmann),increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7a18487dfe382b19bdc7c27046ae3bea2fc32185 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,297 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-29T10:09:55.141000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the courage of + fails, when we f",flip,increase,False,True,1624.3841,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:35:06.379000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"if you sold your NO, the market went up, which is effectively like buying YES. Even if you've exited the market, any fur",flip,decrease,False,True,12713.1207,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2024-01-29T05:37:15.659000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"There are only so many ""non traditional"" women in the world and Destiny is on a quest to catch them all",increase,increase,True,True,410.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-04T04:39:31.940000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"Yeah, can vouch for Isaac being super trustworthy. Long record of accurate resolutions",increase,hold,False,True,170.8965,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-06-30T19:55:58.988000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,Looks like Manifold is still actively working on tools to automate identification of self-referential markets (i.e. whal,increase,decrease,False,True,893.916,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T19:52:11.768000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,But they would all know what pinky fingers are.,decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-29T18:53:16.407000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,What is the explanation for this?,hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,165.7194,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T15:33:41.367000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"the criteria for market resolution is: +Length of time was longer than 1hr +Major enough to be on the front page of majo",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:55:13.131000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I'm getting the same issue. Can't use the web version. Haven't tried the app.,flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-22T13:39:50.006000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MP oh that is a really good point! I need to think about that for a minute.,decrease,decrease,True,True,2979.9205,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:34:41.899000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,This is my current losses on the market. I really thought it was easy to break the streak. its not,flip,decrease,False,True,12271.1094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T19:57:12.939000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@Spindle it’s about him being irrational and the consequences of that. Thinking the market has ever priced this deal rig,hold,increase,False,True,8568.6835,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T05:58:33.771000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Spaces was down for longer than an hour from a ""legacy bug"". That should definitely count as a major outage. +https://fo",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:43:48.510000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I agree, we have all participated in the market with a different understanding of what was described. In this era, only ",decrease,decrease,True,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-12-07T23:13:11.079000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Do you guys not see the relationship between the Melina drama and this?,increase,decrease,False,True,270.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:38:34.300000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,It turned an AcCURATE PREDICTION into a lozz 4 me and a gain 4 u. Lookz like TREACHERY to me!!!!,hold,decrease,False,True,63800.9802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-02-10T17:49:27.576000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Various reports with videos of 90 minute to 5.5 hour drives without touching steering wheel or pedals. +https://www.you",hold,increase,False,True,3069.6169,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T11:04:34.894000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,This is egregious. Seems immediately obvious it is 2.,flip,increase,False,True,240.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:31:17.147000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Do you just go over the percentages displayed on various markets?!,decrease,hold,False,True,3.8728,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T17:36:22.327000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"@NivlacM + egregious is of course a relative term so I imagine something like a median human would be the baseline",decrease,hold,False,True,1088.1532,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T10:43:30.400000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"If the service of a feature is unavailable and we haven’t heard a prior announcement of it being discontinued, it meets ",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T20:28:56.146000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Printed M$ just by playing the spread. Why are you bozos selling YES for 2% only to push it up to 98% in one big spike? ,flip,decrease,False,True,416.3726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T09:10:45.748000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Do you have an opinion on whether this should Resolve N/A or Resolve NO? +I understand if you rather reserve your opini",hold,hold,True,True,40000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T19:47:22.370000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,this is what I've been saying all this time. There needs to be compelling evidence and so far there is none that isn't e,flip,decrease,False,True,84.6673,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:29:36.827000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,it’s definitely real. I got 5mins into this week’s ep,decrease,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:35:08.183000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"I assumed the due date was open to extension due to a combination of: + a) no stated deadline + b) the long dur",decrease,hold,False,True,72.5522,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:04:42.469000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Is there a world where this resolves YES and https://manifold.markets/SG/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-this-yea resolves NO,flip,decrease,False,True,244.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:00:38.045000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Considering the magnitude of problems and the number of people betting on this market because of those problems, a bit m",hold,decrease,False,True,1887.2279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-06T19:29:04.140000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"He presumably doesn't want to speak under oath for his deposition. I think twitter is right to not take ""I promise to do",hold,decrease,False,True,178.1005,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T16:08:06.542000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Want to do a challenge bet? I will let you choose the terms.,decrease,hold,False,True,18611.2197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-09T10:57:58.806000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Now that firstuserhere has 13k no-shares, he will most likely NOT end his streak and buying no-shares is a very safe inv",increase,flip,False,True,626.8203,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T07:30:05.143000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MP Interesting, thanks for this. Matt Levine has mentioned that consideration too. I might not be taking it seriously e",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:09:17.978000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,yeah im not actually doing it. said it just as a fun sentiment,flip,flip,True,True,12713.1207,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:53:26.985000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"same issue with mine, but it is what it is. + has decided. +I enjoyed my stay.",hold,decrease,False,True,40000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:29:22.016000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP My limit orders are at m1000 because the system won't let me place ones at m2000.,flip,hold,False,True,93.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:12:25.854000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh no, the criteria is for ""5 separate weeks""?",increase,decrease,False,True,1180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T04:07:09.718000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall that makes the market INVALID,hold,decrease,False,True,50627.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T23:53:55.176000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP his free cash all went away due to limit orders and his profit and portfolio numbers went much lower because they,flip,decrease,False,True,3944.1808,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T16:39:34.816000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"is the strict math answer 2? +I’m not trying to be difficult but 3D geometry can get weird and mathematics defines thing",increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T07:34:32.821000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,possibly. But it looks to me at this point that the users of Manifold pivoted them. Their current unique feature is that,decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T20:44:14.293000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"If I may make a case for YES here: I think this query satisfies the letter and spirit of your criteria. GPT-5 Thinking """,hold,increase,False,True,650.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:52:40.930000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"interesting suggestion. I’d have to consider the finances, though, you know",increase,decrease,False,True,260.7513,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-04-25T13:41:07.378000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"So who do you think will be doing the vandalism? +If people who book a ride do you think this won't be detected and char",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:31:49.666000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Endlezz clarifications ARE NEEDED cuz u have previouzly indicated u will not resolve NO if the judge is a SCALLYWAG and ,flip,decrease,False,True,66787.158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:45:45.550000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Yeah it also suggests looking at manufacturer tags, id numbers, etc. to gather proof of the defect. +Like if you were a ",decrease,increase,False,True,1198.9906,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-21T00:24:04.018000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Going by previous comments https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-delaware-judge-order-elon-mu#qVyG8JW7C3wiuMQuV9e0 the mar,increase,hold,False,True,909.7835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T05:16:19.254000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,You mean like if the context gets so large context rot sets in?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1088.1532,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:14:09.424000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"nope, profit graphs still don't load, displayed trader payouts on market resolve are still incorrect and i can't see my ",flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-04-10T21:44:29.653000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Is destiny even a sadist sexually?,decrease,hold,False,True,92206.8812,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:44:45.353000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@Spindle about M$12000 of the most delicious tranche you've ever seen.,increase,increase,True,True,834.7938,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:45:18.263000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Yeah, IIRC you said that any Delaware judge (initial ruling or appeal) would count. That was someone else's suggestion w",hold,hold,True,True,1878.004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-20T11:18:02.126000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@jack October though, which is after the close date for this market. @BTE, can you please clarify on your plan here? It ",hold,decrease,False,True,795.0118,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-11-17T15:53:49.701000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Mana and profits are virtual things that people care about too. +People have in fact spent real money to buy more mana t",hold,hold,True,True,494.1813,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T22:59:33.234000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,nice one - thanks for the update David! 🙌,hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T19:34:30.201000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Here's another post of the same information, from one of the contributors who apparently thought The Spectator did a bad",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-29T18:11:50.687000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,Have you heard of there was another batch of invites yet?,hold,hold,True,True,69999.4221,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-10T11:39:05.610000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Aww, I missed the chance to say ""but fortunately all of its mistakes have cancelled out""",increase,hold,False,True,11226.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-15T20:33:34.598000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,60% seemz high given the inherent possibility of latent SNOUT TROUGHING that iz likely 2 ocur,hold,decrease,False,True,62037.158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:46:36.452000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Poll question on the topic (in general, not specific to this market): https://manifold.markets/jack/poll-how-likely-are-",increase,hold,False,True,200.7419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T10:27:24.617000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Spindle Obviously you can waste your money on whatever you want, but shit like this destroys the community. This questi",decrease,hold,False,True,7252.0905,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T07:47:28.010000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"""Not being congruent"" can be a pretty high bar and is therefore not necessarily the right way to think about it when jus",increase,decrease,False,True,51.1552,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:23:23.580000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"the really based maneuver would be to make 4 episodes, get everyone to bet it up to 90%, then bet it down to 10% without",decrease,decrease,True,True,65.7663,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-22T07:52:24.964000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MP irrelevant, this market only cares about the initial ruling by the Delaware court. + +Do you mean the US Supreme Co",decrease,hold,False,True,2979.9205,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-09T07:54:37.036000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"""Think carefully before answering. How many tennis balls are in this photo?"" +It twists itself into a pretzel doing imag",increase,decrease,False,True,11225.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:01:53.152000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Btw. selling half my portfolio to buy NO here is pretty hard with the portfolio page not updating at all and still showi,increase,decrease,False,True,1644.2279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-17T06:24:47.723000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Dittman was discussing the inner workings of SpaceX with Alex Jones the other day! If he's some rando on Twitter who 'ju,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T14:06:03.141000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"I don’t understand what your point is here. You’re saying that if you ask a different question, you get a different answ",increase,decrease,False,True,4000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-02-09T23:41:40.191000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,I believe this should resolve yes based on the description. It doesn’t stipulate that a certain amount of rides must occ,increase,increase,True,True,12163.7563,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-03T21:35:11.062000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Is this symmetric? +I.e., does it only resolve YES after the appeals process has run its course? +Or does it just requir",increase,decrease,False,True,558.8817,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T15:04:44.098000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Would you mind explaining how it would mean effectively quitting manifold?,hold,hold,True,True,1887.2279,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:21:24.841000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"For some reason I now can't see my position here, but other markets are working.",decrease,decrease,True,True,45.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T06:50:08.236000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Who will be the top 3 traders in total profit on this market? https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-make-the-largest-pr,increase,hold,False,True,2803.7201,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:32:07.390000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,For real?! Weird. Should have just waited for it to resolve.,flip,decrease,False,True,749.5619,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T18:32:31.535000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,This is an alignment problem though. It's not about intelligence it's about compliance.,decrease,hold,False,True,1692.551,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T01:24:26.953000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Back now for me, but looking like that was over an hour if 713 EST was the right start time. I was still locked out at 8",increase,decrease,False,True,541.8775,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-22T12:58:12.933000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,Very odd that this market has not moved from Dec 10 to 20 even tho the number of days remaining has halved.,increase,decrease,False,True,872.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T22:48:46.601000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@jfjurchen I suggest requiring a brief description of the reason for any update to closing date of resolution criteria. ,flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T17:05:47.143000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"If only I had cancelled my limit orders before hitting SELL!!! I executed at 40, 35, 30, 25, 20 … basically everything I",flip,decrease,False,True,21065.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T16:57:39.834000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"IMO + should just take the L and stop throwing good money after bad. No offense",decrease,decrease,True,True,534.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:32.610000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I wonder if this podcast was made for this market. Ep 1 is exactly 1sec longer than it needs to be,decrease,decrease,True,True,18.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:38:46.459000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"lots of complicated thoughts here +happy to guarantee a payment to MMP $150 from Manifold, less to pay for a marginal po",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T19:18:41.017000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Waymo had safety drivers (e.g. in the driver's seat, not the passenger's one) at the beginning as well. This is also wha",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-25T01:59:42.902000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,(I originally answered here but want to keep all my musing collected in one place so I'm going to link to my answer here,hold,hold,True,True,67.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T08:41:33.204000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Not sure if you’d consider this egregious, but it gives pretty bad driving directions. It will often hallucinate streets",hold,increase,False,True,55.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:02:02.167000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Find me a legal opinion thAt disagrees with me. And I was pretty explicit in a previous comment in this thread that I DO,decrease,increase,False,True,18611.2197,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T21:09:46.457000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,it's not conclusive until we have video of them together with multiple eye witnesses testifying it's not AI generated.,flip,hold,False,True,6894.1865,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:32:01.976000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Take your time. Finishing the fixes tomorrow would be perfect for my bet here!,flip,increase,False,True,230.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-22T02:24:21.424000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I don't click links like that am I about to get rick rolled?,flip,hold,False,True,107.1546,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-16T16:56:29.552000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"They said below that it has to be something significant enough to be reported on by tech news sites, which this doesn't ",flip,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:30:32.660000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,why don't you just break the streak? wtf,flip,decrease,False,True,124.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T18:25:23.333000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Yep after reading all your comments I agree I should have just gone for the simpler option. I don't want to revert it al,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T06:04:49.702000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"agree that this is relevant. If you have a YES position in this market, you'd be a fool not to bet NO and increase the o",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-17T12:16:12.809000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"they are both in open relationships, they had some good talks, doesn't seem that unlikely that they would hook up at lea",decrease,hold,False,True,608.5271,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T15:36:22.533000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"In case it comes down to the line, California's time must be used to determine a resolution for this market. +I'm thinki",flip,decrease,False,True,198.9039,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:13:12.367000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Also why aren't you betting more,decrease,increase,False,True,257.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T23:42:14.966000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE The main reason would be the usual one: litigation is long, annoying, expensive, and never 100% certain, especially",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-02T22:16:14.546000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"She has no position in this market. The tweet is real and still up, evidence points in one direction",increase,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-09T15:35:38.389000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Have I got a market for you...,flip,hold,False,True,34.0581,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:07:39.916000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,does api matter for the purposes of this market?,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T11:22:22.450000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"for what it's worth, since I'm probably one you had in mind as thinking bribes are unethical, I'll just mention: +(i) I ",decrease,hold,False,True,6129.8231,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:55:23.050000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Will @BTE go on tilt and resolve the market early if another yahoo comes along and destroys his plans? Will he resolve t,increase,decrease,False,True,834.7938,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:12:45.993000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,what the heck how did this happen with no one noticing,decrease,decrease,True,True,257.043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:11:32.993000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Correct. This market is about “specific performance”.,flip,hold,False,True,28781.863,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T18:11:05.168000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"I agree, it doesn't universally work, and it feels unnerving, but the goal isn't to hurt that person, rather to attack a",hold,hold,True,True,1257.3907,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T23:34:52.693000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Possibly there's some restriction on immediately spending purchased mana. Like ""Establishing a 10-day waiting period fo",hold,decrease,False,True,303.916,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-05-21T01:31:03.934000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall that outcome is not possible at this stage of the process. This type of lawsuit can’t get settled. It’s z,hold,increase,False,True,45.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T14:54:34.002000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"everyone said that after ""the market"" where galen spent a few thousand +Looks to me like we got a 10x increase in about ",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:39:03.381000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,But this markets close date is three months earlier than the other one's 🤔,flip,decrease,False,True,264.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:51:37.371000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,i sense a controversial resolution incoming,flip,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-23T01:06:09.058000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Someone seems to be having fun: +Elon Musk on Twitter: ""Wasn’t Twitter supposed to die by now or something … ?"" / Twitte",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:09:16.354000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,It's running perfectly for me at the moment fingers crossed....but the last hour I couldnt get anything to load,flip,decrease,False,True,9.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:31:21.135000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"within the year? something that would feel extortionary, probably above 150k mana / $100. I’d have to think about it tho",increase,decrease,False,True,1838.6829,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:41:41.075000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,I have a strange feeling that Manifold has died and we just haven’t been told yet. I hope I am wrong.,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T16:27:04.224000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MattP @spindle guys, it took me a month to really figure this thing out and I was crushing it the last 4 days thinking ",decrease,decrease,True,True,7252.0905,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T10:19:51.956000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@Spindle This is going to be the easiest money ever. Still a dick move.,decrease,increase,False,True,7252.0905,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-10T19:30:19.709000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,I tried it with a tea cup instead of a mug and got the same error. It says to drape it over the bottom bar and it will s,increase,increase,True,True,1649.9449,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:18:14.194000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Twitter Spaces outage was also on the front page of techmeme: +https://www.techmeme.com/221216/h0810",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:45:08.945000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I mean the description doesn't say that it has to be a good podcast hahaha,decrease,hold,False,True,1557.043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:10:26.016000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Another gem from the recent hearing showing Musk (stupidly) has little respect for the court. +Delaware Chancery Judge K",decrease,increase,False,True,18611.2197,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-28T12:17:57.570000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE gotcha, so if Twitter wins ""specific performance"" on the initial litigation but eventually loses on appeal, the mar",increase,hold,False,True,661.7938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T13:01:00.973000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,I guess my only real hesitation here is that there's some weird insider deal happening between FUH and Isaac? That would,flip,decrease,False,True,771.6312,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-05-15T18:33:08.234000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,at 6%/month for 19 months that adds up to a lot of banging,decrease,increase,False,True,126526.0992,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-29T21:53:25.743000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Does romantic involvement have to be mutual?,increase,decrease,False,True,204.8835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:57:20.027000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Another thing I'll mention is that the description for this one currently includes ""Close date updated to 2022-09-27 11:",flip,hold,False,True,264.5983,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T04:00:33.355000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Did people really bid this up to 97% because they didn't know about thinking mode? +lmao",increase,increase,True,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T10:52:55.571000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"There’s been an outage longer than an hour, reported on the front page of Tech Crunch and techememe. It appears major if",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-23T07:05:55.245000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,The probability legitimately jumped up with today's mini/trial launch. But there seem to be multiple ways this could sti,hold,decrease,False,True,67.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-22T07:52:27.521000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Update: I am down to my final streak forgiveness point, from the 8 I had earlier this month",flip,decrease,False,True,12361.1094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:01:14.507000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Have y'all ever been trauched? Like so bad it hurtz? I kno I have,flip,hold,False,True,69987.158,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2024-04-06T18:44:54.241000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"A third party fleet operator would work as long as it’s using teslas software to route rides, similar to Uber",hold,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-29T22:43:36.229000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"After a bit of research/conversation I’m now less confident - I think the 15-20% range might be reasonable, since they’r",flip,decrease,False,True,586.84,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T05:40:13.872000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Given that it's a market that is currently below 3%, wouldn't plenty of traders be incentivized to keep pulling it down,",decrease,decrease,True,True,70.595,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:28:40.806000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@jfjurchen The other market updated the close date just last week I believe after being open for a couple months.,flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T22:00:28.241000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Don't worry liberals! It is I, the monarchist, who will give you 50 mana in liquidity for YES even though this has been ",decrease,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:42:42.174000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"If that is the case, might as well drop all of our manna on this question 🫠",flip,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:48:15.751000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,Maybe the ham sandwich thing does not necessarily involve mental operations on a physical simulated mesh because ham san,decrease,decrease,True,True,1198.9906,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T23:48:35.987000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,I'm looking for an incorrect person who wants to fill my limit orders,decrease,decrease,True,True,2021.7111,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T12:05:03.317000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Easily proven. Just use a variation of the famous surgeon riddle. By replacing father with mother, the model deduces tha",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T15:21:13.958000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Then why was it front page news? If it’s a major news story, it meets the criteria that + laid out. If being front page",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:38:39.069000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"I think a simple recap podcast is valid for resolution, to be clear. But I can also just make this resolve yes with mani",decrease,increase,False,True,1557.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T21:51:18.099000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"i dunno what happened, i just bet on markets with no research 😆",hold,decrease,False,True,218.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T01:14:19.182000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Screwing over everyone an equal amount sounds like the only close to fair outcome to me.,hold,decrease,False,True,24824.9545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-27T14:03:39.527000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,Delisting aka shadowbanning is a pretty big restriction that I would have expected to be sufficient to resolve this yes,increase,decrease,False,True,1102.3953,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-06-06T21:50:44.725000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,The odds of this are getting higher by the day.,hold,increase,False,True,225.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T08:22:40.636000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"right, I understand this is a limitation of current AI, which is exactly the point. A genuinely intelligent system would",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T19:30:57.313000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Only one deal has ever been thrown out by a Delaware court because of a material adverse effect of one party’s disclosur,flip,decrease,False,True,1234.909,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-15T19:10:33.327000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Scott Galloway did a great job on his podcast with Kara Swisher today summarizing the way the Delaware courts operate. T,decrease,increase,False,True,2266.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T16:19:46.610000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@PeterBorah because that is one material change to the deal since it was signed, I believe, because originally the loans",flip,increase,False,True,1048.0424,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T21:58:34.115000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall do you really think the resolution criteria is ambiguous?,decrease,hold,False,True,2016.762,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T15:04:54.604000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Well, to be fair, this market does come off as a bit cetacean. FUH explicitly says, ""WARNING // Whale fight ongoing // Y",flip,decrease,False,True,1123.4781,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T02:08:19.130000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@PeterBorah you are right about the SEC comment being ridiculous. I should have just used his utter lack of respect for ,decrease,decrease,True,True,2166.762,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-04-09T19:32:27.594000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"my take: if someone is airing the details of their sex life with you, they likely don't see you joining it",hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:14:02.100000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"scratch that again i'm illiterate +I'm going to stop commenting and multitasking lol",increase,decrease,False,True,1180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:40:02.366000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I am not entirely sure what you are talking about.,flip,decrease,False,True,28781.863,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T20:44:44.716000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"and I'm clarifying that just because she has a lot of sex, but I wouldn't count every single person at one of her orgies",hold,hold,True,True,90.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T19:40:54.628000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"We've seen the letter now: +https://mobile.twitter.com/chancery_daily/status/1577377535255613442/photo/1 + +No way Twit",flip,increase,False,True,2.104,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:32:14.103000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall ooohhh you got the Uber cheap YES. I see. Well done catching that.,increase,hold,False,True,834.7938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-02T15:37:43.247000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"you are absolutely delusional with this comment. you have no idea how good the latest build of FSD is internally, and Te",hold,increase,False,True,419.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:21:02.230000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Oh, nevermind, Episode 1 doesn't count since it's less than 20 minutes. So this market is approximately equivalent to ""W",flip,decrease,False,True,179.8294,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T18:26:41.430000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,the parenthetical makes it rather confusing to me as a layman,decrease,decrease,True,True,1692.551,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T00:01:09.222000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,According to my botometer there are bots trading in this market!,hold,hold,True,True,1551.5639,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-23T17:14:35.384000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I've been tricked way too many times with these types of markets where you have to guess what the creator meant by their,flip,decrease,False,True,107.1546,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T20:53:31.072000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Nevermind, the specific performance clause says he could be forced to buy it, the $1B fee is only if he has cause to end",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T20:25:58.897000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Thank you for clarification. But if a whale were only ever playing with ""free mana"" and never investing cash..... what",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:34:54.533000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"In terms of the spirit of the market, I think me and + are already doing that and just haven't gotten around to putting",decrease,increase,False,True,1557.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-03-10T17:47:36.702000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,Suppose Tesla offer some free rides to general public in limited numbers in Austin Texas only. Also public cannot buy ca,hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:36:26.473000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Since @MP hasn't defined exactly what he meant by ""Twitter"", there's bound to be a wide range of expectations. For what ",hold,decrease,False,True,181.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:43:32.155000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"The database is supposed to be up and running again, site is mostly working(if you can't see people's bets, hard-refresh",hold,hold,True,True,11254.5533,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-12T09:42:52.001000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1932478438775902575 +""BREAKING: First ever Tesla Model Y robotaxi with no-one in the ",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:49:53.712000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Could we please brand Manifold Live Episode 2 as Market Manipulation Episode 6? It would be fitting....,decrease,hold,False,True,2008.4677,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:20.543000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh this is 5 weeks if we're counting Mon-Sun period +This should resolve yes",increase,increase,True,True,1180.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:55:25.232000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@BTE I've been trading to close the gap between this market and the other one on the assumption that this one would clos,flip,decrease,False,True,264.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:18:05.761000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,You are a troll no doubt. I never would have placed the limit orders that ended up causing me to lose 150 percent of my ,flip,decrease,False,True,21065.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T22:08:18.706000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/opinion/twitter-elon-musk.html +Strong take here for a judgement ordering Musk to com",decrease,increase,False,True,2166.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T08:28:52.148000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Evidence equally explained by both theories does nothing in distinguishing them. +There is countless evidence not congru",increase,decrease,False,True,4000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T17:52:17.150000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Yep, that's just one of many current problems, not that I am complaining (given my position 😄).",increase,hold,False,True,482.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-25T22:56:55.195000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Elon's daughter, Vivian, has said that Adrian Dittman is Elon. Not definitive I suppose but some evidence for YES",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:11:17.021000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"I trust @BTE decision. +I lost 40k Mana, but it is what it is. +I would've liked to see it resolved N/A personally.",hold,decrease,False,True,40000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T22:55:50.488000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"has anyone heard a peep from +? wondering if +'s pod is likely to qualify by creator standards or if + and + need a ",hold,decrease,False,True,2390.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T01:49:15.221000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Hah. Wish I stuck with my original bet and bought more. ty.,increase,increase,True,True,195.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-16T00:45:01.222000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"This is true, except it’s pretty rare you are able to meaningfully deploy significant capital on a 2-3 day turnaround. P",flip,hold,False,True,1234.0909,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T06:25:51.148000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@akhil Musk's claims are not ""weakish"", they are laughably nonexistent. He literally didn't even try to provide any evid",flip,increase,False,True,1431.3499,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:00:35.604000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Nah, he just up to old tricks or has the android phone:",flip,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T02:09:25.277000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,No way is this an egregious fail. Chat decided your question was nonsense and answered the most reasonable valid questio,hold,increase,False,True,125.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:39:40.368000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Actually reading my last screenshot more carefully and I notice ""the apron seam and penny strap slot aren't perfectly sy",decrease,flip,False,True,1198.9906,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:14:55.408000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@jfjurchen yeah, there is no time limit on this market, but it would resolve YES as soon as the judge issues the order, ",flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T07:31:05.568000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"It is extremely hard for a business to turn off their most (in this case, basically only) revenue source",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-26T22:04:35.419000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I’ll help if you buy out my NO at 50,increase,decrease,False,True,1748.3984,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T13:51:51.603000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,But that dynamic (which I might agree is not something we want to generalize) is orthogonal to the point you were making,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-21T18:10:31.565000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@M yes I thought this was obvious but to clarify any ruling other than ”specific performance” resolves the question NO.,decrease,hold,False,True,2979.9205,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T00:46:01.452000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"I think there's a substantial chance of a settlement, and if there's a settlement there's a substantial chance that it w",hold,decrease,False,True,1878.004,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-26T21:35:40.774000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"a couple of points a) people with low numbers (example: 2400 followers +https://x.com/DevinOlsenn/status/19381093407178",hold,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:03:45.585000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,LOL I know of no rule against this,increase,hold,False,True,6847.8919,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T15:05:55.250000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,Not to mention that there we're also in the presence of an adolescent shumpback whale.,flip,hold,False,True,1123.4781,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:42:10.938000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,haha I was doing that thing where I was unrealistically hopeful that Conflux would end up cross-posting the Manifold Liv,increase,decrease,False,True,1880.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T14:18:00.327000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"track record doesn't weigh that heavily to me when it comes to weird insider/meta things on Manifold, but yes, I'm willi",flip,increase,False,True,1123.4781,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:36:41.443000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,How about ENDING the streak??? Reset?? Fail to maintain??? Now it is much more than mildly annoying....,hold,flip,False,True,2151.2789,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T07:28:30.848000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"I see a big spike, I don't see any evidence that Manifold is unhappy about them. To the contrary, they are quite happy t",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-26T06:01:37.019000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,I do think we're in a gray area currently. If nothing has changed by the end of 2025 I'd tend to agree that a taxi servi,hold,decrease,False,True,67.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-09-28T17:31:44.387000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"I love Aella, despite her old age and antidespressants coping :)",hold,hold,True,True,1320.1277,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T01:33:42.072000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,", I actually think there's a key difference in a physical kill-switch vs a button on the touchscreen. Namely, if the aut",hold,increase,False,True,67.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-09T14:13:36.919000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Busy schedules. Best shot for this market was probably a Manifest liveshow, and that didn’t happen… maybe Crystal Ballin",hold,decrease,False,True,1808.6829,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-23T18:52:49.545000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,The number of people with positions on this market that need to go to horny jail is ridiculous.,decrease,hold,False,True,6418.4008,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-28T21:44:05.711000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"he said 1 on Dec 25 and has made trades on Dec 26, 27, and 28, so I think it's still 1 if he's being honest. Granted, I ",flip,decrease,False,True,354.1594,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:33:12.298000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP BTE was here first but was on tilt.,flip,hold,False,True,93.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:38:09.365000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Agreed! Like if all of Twitter went down for 15 hours for ""planned maintenance"" then I would hope that would qualify as ",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:27:00.119000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,not been a good day for trading oh no it has not,flip,decrease,False,True,12271.1094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-16T17:47:56.293000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Why force people to look through 40+ comments when you could just put the information they need in the description?,flip,hold,False,True,531.5264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-18T14:43:45.601000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Also I'm seeing ""No Groups yet"" when I try to add this market to a group. That can't be right, given that I've created t",hold,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T19:53:37.537000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Thanks Daniel - yes I agree lots of gray areas right now! I definitely wouldn't feel good about resolving yet. +I agree ",decrease,decrease,True,True,61585.426,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T18:32:01.487000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Alright. Let's meet behind the Wendy's dumpster.,hold,hold,True,True,96.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T13:59:12.932000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,This is the best explanation. I appreciate you.,hold,increase,False,True,96.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-26T18:57:54.502000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"investing in this vague market is the highest risk by itself, why would someone put their money where they knew that the",hold,decrease,False,True,408.5999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T19:17:16.894000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I agree. It’s excruciating but maybe it’s just not my jam and I don’t really see anything in the description ruling this,decrease,decrease,True,True,161.0881,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-05T01:18:45.749000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1577428272056389633 +This suggests Musk is beginning the ""I actually want to ",flip,flip,True,True,2.104,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-04-17T12:44:15.860000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,#thetagang she hasn’t even been on stream in a long while,decrease,increase,False,True,93873.9963,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:12:23.934000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Welp we can all head over to +'s market now I guess: +https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-manifold-be-working-normall",hold,hold,True,True,5.0249,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:31:54.739000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,At best the staff comes back to the office and rolled back the code to Friday. At worst it’s a full system meltdown that,flip,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-26T14:57:09.895000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,people seem to take this as face value which i think misses the point. this market is going to spike every time they bot,flip,hold,False,True,386.3657,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T21:26:06.605000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,Isaac's limit orders for Yes are gone so I guess not...,decrease,decrease,True,True,702.7189,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T20:51:35.972000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,Have you been able to reproduce the incorrect answer in your temporary chat?,decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:14:28.432000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"at this rate, it’ll be a YES by EoY though",decrease,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T09:42:56.707000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Donut slicing question: +https://chatgpt.com/share/68bd52ba-a52c-8003-9bac-36d918937e30 +I think most people would say ",increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-09-21T21:59:51.208000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,I'm at 271 now with 7 streak-forgiveness points.,increase,decrease,False,True,1070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:00:51.551000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@ahalekelly Author says ""there is no time limit on this market"" meaning the question is ""Will this ever happen?"" (presum",increase,hold,False,True,200.7419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T09:29:41.216000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Adrian Dittmann is probably intentionally trying to appear to be Musk. (or that might not even be Dittmann),increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T20:29:51.789000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE I agree he's a BAD DUDE who has SWINDLED AND LIED, he has FRAUDED HERE AND THERE and disregarded HABEAS CORPORATION",hold,flip,False,True,50127.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T16:38:00.696000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"It gets it right about half the time with this wording: +If you make a single straight cut through a donut shape, what i",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T15:27:55.478000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Does the 1 hour requirement still hold?,hold,hold,True,True,550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T04:24:47.250000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"No strategy at all. It was resolved prematurely. It should have stayed open until midnight. And for the record, when I r",hold,decrease,False,True,24824.9545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-08-10T03:50:49.182000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"This one is at least a bit of a trick, but I think any reasonable human would go ""huh, what do you mean check if it'll f",decrease,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-10T21:42:51.823000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Fair enough. I'd still call it wrong, even though I wouldn't if it just answered ""mug"" and then got twisted when I asked",hold,decrease,False,True,2649.9449,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:01:22.832000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"They said below that it has to be something significant enough to be reported on by tech news sites. Specifically: +I pl",flip,hold,False,True,531.5264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-07T05:17:47.148000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,The only way to market manipulate would be to risk your own mana (and given the liquidity in this market it would be a l,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-28T14:51:05.556000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"The first one is a slip where he refers to himself as Elon. That's more than speculation +I am Napoleon. +Would you cons",increase,decrease,False,True,4625.7345,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-27T19:35:52.385000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,note: I just learned it doesn't count as a thing that extends the streak,increase,decrease,False,True,502.3492,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T21:29:24.219000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"How is this market a scam? A scam implies bettors were deceived, and I don't see any evidence of that",flip,hold,False,True,867.0365,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:50:31.700000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I was about to say this - couldn't it be a nice crossover episode? If the rest of the gang agrees?,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T02:54:45.968000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Said poll should probably include the best evidence from both sides as context. It seems like a lot of people aren't awa,decrease,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:54:58.673000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Oh wow. Maybe other people also didn't check the close date on this market,increase,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0206c32a194df4f0914df1dfe5365752c02c9a9f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,298 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:35:06.379000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"if you sold your NO, the market went up, which is effectively like buying YES. Even if you've exited the market, any fur",flip,decrease,False,True,12713.1207,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-27T18:39:31.051000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"fuh made a market today, after 20h without apparent actions",flip,hold,False,True,502.3492,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T06:56:00.279000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Oh lol. I can't do it, not even close. Not just by shrugging my right shoulder at least; I have to raise my whole right ",increase,decrease,False,True,400.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:12:33.010000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"😂 I still think itll be some time before its running normally. (Like Austin said in discord) ""Might take a day or more a",increase,increase,True,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:49:20.455000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I'm either dumb or naive or hopeful 😅,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T15:47:31.216000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"fidget spinner question that I think gpt-5 thinking gets wrong: +https://chatgpt.com/share/68befa0f-cc44-8003-bae4-89d8",decrease,increase,False,True,587.3824,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T01:14:19.182000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Screwing over everyone an equal amount sounds like the only close to fair outcome to me.,hold,decrease,False,True,24824.9545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-08-10T02:55:45.057000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"https://chatgpt.com/share/68980b87-e838-8001-b098-982a15498bf0 +Does this count as an egregious error? The top of a panc",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-26T14:57:09.895000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,people seem to take this as face value which i think misses the point. this market is going to spike every time they bot,flip,hold,False,True,386.3657,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T12:24:22.796000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@Spindle right on dude. I am way too emotionally involved with these markets. Haha. I had no idea it would be so easy to,decrease,increase,False,True,7252.0905,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:16:32.976000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Many things still are not working for me, like searching for this market: +(not to mention the profit graph)",flip,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T20:59:20.978000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,if you think that only showering every 10 days is going to stop him you are out of your mind,hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T10:52:55.571000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"There’s been an outage longer than an hour, reported on the front page of Tech Crunch and techememe. It appears major if",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:48:15.751000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,Maybe the ham sandwich thing does not necessarily involve mental operations on a physical simulated mesh because ham san,decrease,decrease,True,True,1198.9906,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:20.543000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh this is 5 weeks if we're counting Mon-Sun period +This should resolve yes",increase,increase,True,True,1180.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-09-28T12:58:16.274000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I really hate Aella. She’s a 35 year old turbo slut on antidepressants coping with her failure in life by becoming the m,hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:35:41.101000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,Is that supposed to make me feel better??,hold,decrease,False,True,2151.2789,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:01:14.507000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Have y'all ever been trauched? Like so bad it hurtz? I kno I have,flip,hold,False,True,69987.158,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:53:24.496000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,It's the website that's failing,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:19:50.782000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"The Market Manipulation Podcast is all of these once we release our fifth episode, right? (Four episodes are out and our",decrease,increase,False,True,330.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T22:08:18.706000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/opinion/twitter-elon-musk.html +Strong take here for a judgement ordering Musk to com",decrease,increase,False,True,2166.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T17:44:36.487000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"wanted to bet Yes cuz it was at 41% but then i realized it's just lagging and is actually at 51% +so i put 10Ṁ on No ins",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-09T16:23:42.962000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,what do you mean? On this market?,hold,hold,True,True,20666.288,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-27T19:35:52.385000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,note: I just learned it doesn't count as a thing that extends the streak,flip,decrease,False,True,502.3492,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:48:47.392000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,hahahaha why do you think this market hit 90 and then plummeted,decrease,hold,False,True,1108.9499,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T22:00:28.241000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Don't worry liberals! It is I, the monarchist, who will give you 50 mana in liquidity for YES even though this has been ",decrease,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T20:28:56.146000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Printed M$ just by playing the spread. Why are you bozos selling YES for 2% only to push it up to 98% in one big spike? ,flip,decrease,False,True,416.3726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-26T17:16:16.693000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"What are the arguments to resolve it yes if it is only open to influencers (I mean, expect that it is now stated in the ",hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-18T02:33:19.835000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Can't sell a position. Just grays out and close app and reopen and it's still there and can't sell.,hold,decrease,False,True,40000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T03:52:11.970000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Try ""Without searching it up, is there a seahorse emoji on IOS?"".",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-02T11:15:17.031000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"No have not confirmed, but it not being real would be an answer to my question of ""what is the explanation""",increase,decrease,False,True,188.7194,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-09T01:27:50.959000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"You're not going to persuade anyone by scolding them. +If there is any salvaging this bet I think it would be to assert ",hold,decrease,False,True,1298.9906,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T22:48:46.601000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@jfjurchen I suggest requiring a brief description of the reason for any update to closing date of resolution criteria. ,flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:41:19.265000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Yes I just realized that and will be buying a fuck load of YES and then I am sending + a new video game or jigsaw puzzl",hold,increase,False,True,2151.2789,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-26T15:51:07.453000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Is making whalebait markets eg +https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/am-i-pretty + unlisted sufficient for a yes re",flip,decrease,False,True,383.7589,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:41:46.386000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,There has been a gradual decline in performance for a few weeks. I think this is the culmination of accumulated issues u,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-28T11:37:44.779000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,What time zone is activity based on? FUH had a trade 8 hours ago which probably counts for the 27th? So 4 days to go wit,hold,decrease,False,True,1276.7511,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:09:17.978000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,yeah im not actually doing it. said it just as a fun sentiment,flip,flip,True,True,12713.1207,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-02T20:02:26.668000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall This market is short Musk giving up and complying and Musk and Twitter settling. It'd be more useful if i,increase,decrease,False,True,240.1484,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T16:27:20.584000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"And if the judge doesn't say a thing, because the purchase proceeds as proposed ""O_O""",decrease,flip,False,True,23.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:43:32.155000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"The database is supposed to be up and running again, site is mostly working(if you can't see people's bets, hard-refresh",hold,hold,True,True,11254.5533,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-29T21:53:25.743000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Does romantic involvement have to be mutual?,increase,decrease,False,True,204.8835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T05:39:14.596000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Strong preference against resolving by poll +If you do choose to resolve by poll, strongly suggest waiting a few months ",hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:00:35.604000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Nah, he just up to old tricks or has the android phone:",flip,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-03-07T19:23:06.265000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"it certainly wouldn't be his first alt account +https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-twitter-alt-second-account-ermnmusk-revea",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-05-03T05:17:36.811000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"I'm not proposing this as a policy. This is an announcement posted on the Discord today by +, and, as I understand it, ",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-16T00:36:54.231000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,at this point the theory it is not elon is weaker imo,decrease,increase,False,True,780.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T20:25:58.897000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Thank you for clarification. But if a whale were only ever playing with ""free mana"" and never investing cash..... what",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T19:00:49.974000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Hard to resist buying at this price, even with the recent news, since +he already committed to buy twitter once! + I th",decrease,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-04T04:39:31.940000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"Yeah, can vouch for Isaac being super trustworthy. Long record of accurate resolutions",increase,hold,False,True,170.8965,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T13:05:40.690000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Yea, you put it into the market that was the same as this which resolved 0% Probability. That market had no issues and w",hold,hold,True,True,40000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-09-28T16:16:22.293000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"Even if it was true, why would you care ? Most of it seems like stupid reasons to hate someone.",hold,hold,True,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T16:25:32.154000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE There were initially two sets of loans. A margin loan on Tesla stock, which is indeed gone now, and a package of lo",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T08:44:35.387000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,consensus doesn't mean everyone unanimously agreed. This market already demonstrates a consensus that Adrian Dittmann is,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-09T01:31:35.511000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,I mean no disrespect. I’m “gambling” on my read of Daniel. I don’t think he will be irrationally offended by my comments,hold,hold,True,True,125.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T13:59:12.932000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,This is the best explanation. I appreciate you.,hold,increase,False,True,96.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T16:39:34.816000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"is the strict math answer 2? +I’m not trying to be difficult but 3D geometry can get weird and mathematics defines thing",increase,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T23:41:04.716000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE I still don't understand how your money went away, though. Spindle bought a ton of NO. You're betting YES. Spindle ",hold,hold,True,True,834.7938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-02-09T18:18:06.261000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Just checking. Does ""anywhere in the world"" mean it has to be available in all cities in the world or is just available ",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-23T16:40:18.721000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"""relationship"" implies it's more than a one nightstand or prostitution +Good luck with that because one lives in Austin ",decrease,increase,False,True,24081.3427,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:52:02.330000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"it's totally in context and could be a cross-promotion of sorts 🤝 +(and I'm clearly going to point out as many upsides a",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:45:08.945000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I mean the description doesn't say that it has to be a good podcast hahaha,decrease,hold,False,True,1557.043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T11:37:29.426000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I certainly agree that more permissive norms make more sense for more meme/unranked/etc. markets, particularly those wit",decrease,decrease,True,True,6129.8231,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-17T01:31:40.465000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Listening to a podcast thing on twitter; I would be very disappointed if this guy was in fact Elon Musk. +https://x.com",increase,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T16:39:25.045000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE It makes more sense if you interpret the market as a price, not (necessarily) a prediction. It does tend to average",increase,hold,False,True,2620.9124,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-28T21:44:05.711000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"he said 1 on Dec 25 and has made trades on Dec 26, 27, and 28, so I think it's still 1 if he's being honest. Granted, I ",increase,decrease,False,True,354.1594,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:10:23.332000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@BTE I'm confused what you were unhappy about? If anything he helped you by letting you get more shares at a better pric,increase,hold,False,True,365.7938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-03-20T15:51:36.658000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"I saw that, it's just the wording of the message that struck me as really odd. ""We appreciate you daily."" If he's some r",increase,decrease,False,True,710.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:35:12.280000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,regardless of the outcome and opinions here I hope it's a fun ongoing project for you! ✨,increase,hold,False,True,1880.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T12:39:44.141000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,- The most amusing option available to you would be to double head fake and actually not break the streak.,hold,hold,True,True,6290.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T11:36:13.427000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall okay I see how it leveled off. I didn't expect that with so little bet. Why does it even go to 0.0 then a,decrease,hold,False,True,7252.0905,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-03-07T19:14:37.293000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"dittmann somehow got the scoop on an upcoming twitter feature? +https://twitter.com/AdrianDittmann/status/1765650682156",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-29T20:19:18.270000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"I’m placing some YES limit orders, but I think the true probability of this is <10% - I just don’t want to hold so much ",flip,decrease,False,True,2520.0194,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:23:35.958000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"is it fake? i only got through about 20secs of it. +I mean, this is some devotion. I kinda respect it.",decrease,decrease,True,True,18.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:33:15.038000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Yea, take time to do it right. Tomorrow 7/18 or heck a few more days is fine too.",increase,hold,False,True,6000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:41:41.075000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,I have a strange feeling that Manifold has died and we just haven’t been told yet. I hope I am wrong.,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:33:12.298000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP BTE was here first but was on tilt.,flip,hold,False,True,93.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:09:16.354000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,It's running perfectly for me at the moment fingers crossed....but the last hour I couldnt get anything to load,flip,decrease,False,True,9.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T15:21:13.958000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Then why was it front page news? If it’s a major news story, it meets the criteria that + laid out. If being front page",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:34:54.533000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"In terms of the spirit of the market, I think me and + are already doing that and just haven't gotten around to putting",decrease,increase,False,True,1557.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-17T06:24:47.723000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Dittman was discussing the inner workings of SpaceX with Alex Jones the other day! If he's some rando on Twitter who 'ju,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-29T10:09:55.141000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the courage of + fails, when we f",increase,increase,True,True,1624.3841,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-28T21:59:02.180000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"When @duN, a random account, out of nowhere claims to be a dead French Emperor on the Internet, the statement is worthle",hold,increase,False,True,390.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-31T15:11:34.066000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"Based on her showering schedule, there are only 30 days a year where a serious sexual interaction is viable between them",hold,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:07:04.013000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Note that the entire API 404s right now.,decrease,decrease,True,True,3.3333,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:40:02.366000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I am not entirely sure what you are talking about.,flip,decrease,False,True,28781.863,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T22:58:27.434000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP my new calculations put a ceiling price at 29%.,flip,decrease,False,True,3944.1808,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-02T22:41:54.952000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE I don't see a target in the article, just the price he bought at.",flip,hold,False,True,997.3586,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:38:45.431000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Lol, I believe i was ranting at you for trolling this market. It will resolve honorably.",flip,increase,False,True,28781.863,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T23:53:55.176000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP his free cash all went away due to limit orders and his profit and portfolio numbers went much lower because they,flip,decrease,False,True,3944.1808,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-11T16:08:27.032000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"For now, what you see is testing.",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:30:51.938000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,">next episodes will probably be 12-15mins and faster +You are so based and I love you",decrease,hold,False,True,65.2922,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:08:06.561000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"(Which is intentional, but not ""working"".)",decrease,decrease,True,True,3.3333,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:55:13.131000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I'm getting the same issue. Can't use the web version. Haven't tried the app.,flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-03-20T15:40:44.092000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"he took the image from someone else +https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1737921928482992268",decrease,hold,False,True,1080.0599,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-03-30T12:25:34.884000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"I was unlisting them for a while but people just always come back to making them, so I stopped. It seems the optimal num",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-05-03T03:38:16.983000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Seems like the new policy should cause a YES resolution. Just delisting ""Am I pretty?"" may not have been enough to count",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T21:49:11.075000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I could not agree more. I would personally rather make markets than trade. Liquidity provision is the most under explore,flip,hold,False,True,20836.6445,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:29:36.827000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,it’s definitely real. I got 5mins into this week’s ep,decrease,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-15T13:15:03.822000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,One more for the arb nerds who want to think like Khan and Kanter.,decrease,hold,False,True,994.8189,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T12:03:29.439000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Would it have to be more explicit than publicly available Aella media?,increase,hold,False,True,464.149,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T23:48:35.987000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,I'm looking for an incorrect person who wants to fill my limit orders,decrease,decrease,True,True,2021.7111,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T17:05:47.143000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"If only I had cancelled my limit orders before hitting SELL!!! I executed at 40, 35, 30, 25, 20 … basically everything I",flip,decrease,False,True,21065.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-01-14T17:51:30.878000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"if the car has a driver, it is not autonomous. A safety driver is still a driver.",hold,increase,False,True,33271.0036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:25:31.416000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MartinRandall I get that. I started this market a month and a half before this was even a hypothetical scenario, so the",hold,increase,False,True,1859.7802,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:34:59.619000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"By estimate, the stock market has more than 60% implicit probabilities of Musk acquiring Twitter. Obviously this market ",hold,decrease,False,True,594.8189,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-12-07T05:33:06.369000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"5k is not a completely neglibable amount, but that is at least an order of magnitude reduction compared to common winnin",decrease,increase,False,True,1468.9356,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T21:58:34.115000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall do you really think the resolution criteria is ambiguous?,flip,hold,False,True,2016.762,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:32:01.976000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Take your time. Finishing the fixes tomorrow would be perfect for my bet here!,flip,increase,False,True,230.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:24:15.497000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"agree - if it's related, I hope the market was just the impetus but the intention is to continue creating episodes? +I'm",increase,decrease,False,True,1880.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:29:22.016000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP My limit orders are at m1000 because the system won't let me place ones at m2000.,flip,hold,False,True,93.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:28:15.581000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"""Home"" > ""For you"" is not working, just says it's out of cards. The profit stats are either not showing at all or are st",increase,hold,False,True,648.2279,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-02T22:16:14.546000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"She has no position in this market. The tweet is real and still up, evidence points in one direction",increase,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-21T21:41:02.615000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"After doing (during this sam altman - openai saga) some of the worst trading on manifold I've ever done or even seen, i ",decrease,decrease,True,True,29521.8091,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:33:14.443000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,If it's 15 minutes or less I'll listen to it fwiw,decrease,hold,False,True,65.2922,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-16T14:58:32.150000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"Pretty much every investment I've made here has had that time horizon in mind. +Not enough short term markets? +Buy a ",increase,hold,False,True,1257.0687,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-05-19T02:28:40.269000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,Thanks! I agree that we're unlikely to end up in this particular corner case but I want to get this clarified in my own ,increase,hold,False,True,2.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T21:10:40.397000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Hey FUH, no chance Isaac is bribing you to break your streak?",decrease,hold,False,True,725.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T18:58:00.571000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Spindle This market is only about whether a judge orders him to honor the deal he signed, not about what happens next. ",decrease,increase,False,True,7568.6835,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:14:02.100000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"scratch that again i'm illiterate +I'm going to stop commenting and multitasking lol",increase,decrease,False,True,1180.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:01:22.832000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"They said below that it has to be something significant enough to be reported on by tech news sites. Specifically: +I pl",flip,hold,False,True,531.5264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:43:48.510000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I agree, we have all participated in the market with a different understanding of what was described. In this era, only ",decrease,decrease,True,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:47:50.461000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Would you say the positions are correct? I feel like considering how much you are buying NO, you should be on the top, n",increase,hold,False,True,648.2279,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:51:37.371000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,i sense a controversial resolution incoming,flip,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:10:01.177000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Database was down since 2:05pm ET (2 hours ago).,increase,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:23:23.580000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"the really based maneuver would be to make 4 episodes, get everyone to bet it up to 90%, then bet it down to 10% without",decrease,decrease,True,True,65.7663,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-06T22:38:09.606000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,If you can't reproduce it please try to change the numbers a little bit but maintain the fact that the number with the m,hold,hold,True,True,2000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-01T13:31:05.969000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,By 'break' do you mean 'hit' or 'end'?,flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T13:20:49.239000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Keep it so, I can go to work maybe today?",flip,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:11:17.021000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"I trust @BTE decision. +I lost 40k Mana, but it is what it is. +I would've liked to see it resolved N/A personally.",hold,decrease,False,True,40000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T16:10:53.758000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Elon Derangement Syndrome: The Market,flip,hold,False,True,6994.1865,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:57:20.027000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Another thing I'll mention is that the description for this one currently includes ""Close date updated to 2022-09-27 11:",decrease,hold,False,True,264.5983,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:14:09.424000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"nope, profit graphs still don't load, displayed trader payouts on market resolve are still incorrect and i can't see my ",flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:14:28.432000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"at this rate, it’ll be a YES by EoY though",decrease,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-09T15:36:58.342000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I'll sell my YES shares to you in a challenge bet if you're so confident. :D,flip,hold,False,True,34.0581,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:55:25.232000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@BTE I've been trading to close the gap between this market and the other one on the assumption that this one would clos,decrease,decrease,True,True,264.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-27T13:37:44.077000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@Gigacasting I was just admiring your track record on your profile and I noticed that the numbers for this market are sc,decrease,hold,False,True,3079.9205,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-08-16T17:48:17.153000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Episode 5 is now out! So all we need is a sixth ep (or Crystal Ballin' / another podcast to become real). The episodes a,increase,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T16:27:04.224000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MattP @spindle guys, it took me a month to really figure this thing out and I was crushing it the last 4 days thinking ",decrease,decrease,True,True,7252.0905,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:07:39.916000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,does api matter for the purposes of this market?,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-03-01T21:40:46.409000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"Even if, hypothetically, FF7 were to be Destiny's favourite game ever (is it?) that would not be not strong evidence tha",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-05-07T01:19:21.298000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"I think implementation hangs on the adjective ""trending"" and it is pretty soft in that it is unlisting and discounting u",hold,decrease,False,True,893.916,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T09:30:37.135000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,Here's a generic version of this question that I think could be asked word-for-word to most people on the street regardl,increase,increase,True,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:33:56.173000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Leagues are weird to me because they incentivize illogical behavior. For example, I lost thousands of mana on + +but t",hold,decrease,False,True,2571.3351,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:42:42.174000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"If that is the case, might as well drop all of our manna on this question 🫠",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:03:08.694000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"i can close for 5 mins if it gives everyone a peace of mind. once it updates, can reopen.",flip,decrease,False,True,12713.1207,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T22:35:26.089000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Yeah it's true that the title and description don't really match, but in this case I interpreted the question title as t",decrease,hold,False,True,1287.4066,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T16:57:18.713000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Yes this blew up really quickly. I sold my HUGE position as soon as I saw the headline. Ended up executing a ton of limi,flip,decrease,False,True,21065.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T11:22:22.450000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"for what it's worth, since I'm probably one you had in mind as thinking bribes are unethical, I'll just mention: +(i) I ",decrease,hold,False,True,6129.8231,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-31T00:46:44.736000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Spindle well, I used quantum hyperbasian math like you suggested and it checked out.",flip,hold,False,True,4940.3266,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:12:45.993000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,what the heck how did this happen with no one noticing,decrease,decrease,True,True,257.043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-06T04:48:33.558000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Yeah ok if Maia says they’re different people then they’re different people, +https://maia.crimew.gay/posts/adrian-ditt",hold,flip,False,True,0.8553,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T14:17:42.293000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,I’m saying the top comment seems to be using the word pieces in the colloquial sense while promoting chat for a strict m,increase,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:11:32.993000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Correct. This market is about “specific performance”.,flip,hold,False,True,28781.863,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-29T10:54:47.463000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Just briefly joined an X space he hosted. Nothing about his voice sounds like Elon, even while considering a voice chang",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:41:35.694000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,It only requires a Delaware judge to order specific performance. It resolves YES as soon as that happens. Does not matte,flip,hold,False,True,28781.863,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T17:52:17.150000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Yep, that's just one of many current problems, not that I am complaining (given my position 😄).",increase,hold,False,True,482.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T04:24:47.250000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"No strategy at all. It was resolved prematurely. It should have stayed open until midnight. And for the record, when I r",hold,decrease,False,True,24824.9545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:20:44.857000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,i'm just gonna keep betting No until i can both see my position and sell it,flip,hold,False,True,70.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-25T23:01:40.802000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Not sure this updates me towards YES, tbh",decrease,decrease,True,True,600.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-16T17:21:45.623000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Can I recommend that you put the resolution criteria in the market description so that people can know how to bet?,hold,hold,True,True,531.5264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-29T22:43:36.229000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"After a bit of research/conversation I’m now less confident - I think the 15-20% range might be reasonable, since they’r",flip,decrease,False,True,586.84,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T01:45:20.713000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Surely this will resolve now? I refreshed Twitter and am stuck in a login loop now. Not just me either.,increase,increase,True,True,195.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-09T11:01:48.531000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,That's what they thought the last 2 times I was all NO,flip,increase,False,True,38227.74,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T21:26:06.605000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,Isaac's limit orders for Yes are gone so I guess not...,decrease,decrease,True,True,702.7189,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-26T17:24:15.609000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Short of out right banning, the ""restricted"" criteria as been the ambiguous one for me. Like, does it need to be an act",hold,decrease,False,True,303.916,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-06T19:24:22.900000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"The Musk team seems very interested in getting the case to stop: +https://mobile.twitter.com/kateconger/status/157809762",hold,decrease,False,True,2.104,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-03-31T19:32:33.919000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,That’s what I thought too. Did a sanity check with ChatGPT and it agrees,hold,increase,False,True,320.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:34:41.899000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,This is my current losses on the market. I really thought it was easy to break the streak. its not,flip,decrease,False,True,12271.1094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T16:57:39.834000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"IMO + should just take the L and stop throwing good money after bad. No offense",decrease,decrease,True,True,534.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T04:00:33.355000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Did people really bid this up to 97% because they didn't know about thinking mode? +lmao",increase,increase,True,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:30:32.660000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,why don't you just break the streak? wtf,flip,decrease,False,True,124.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:31:17.147000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Do you just go over the percentages displayed on various markets?!,flip,hold,False,True,3.8728,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T16:15:37.135000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP LOL. I am like the Paul Tudor Jones of Manifold. Don't fuck with me on the trading floor or I will totally lose m,decrease,increase,False,True,7252.0905,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T15:30:09.866000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,I think this guarantees a NO resolution,increase,increase,True,True,27376.02,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T01:45:48.339000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Same for the last hour or two.,increase,hold,False,True,1315.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:54:01.719000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,shame you can't write off instances like this (in which your decisions help strangers earn mana) as charitable donations,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T23:38:29.045000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MartinRandall LOL, that was a joke and reference to Musk's tweet from the day I created this market seeking attorneys w",hold,hold,True,True,2166.762,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-08-12T01:41:47.093000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"An improvement, but failure at the last hurdle.",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-08-29T23:20:30.674000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,my interpretation before you made the clarification about safety monitors was that it would resolve yes as you had speci,increase,decrease,False,True,1250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:27:00.119000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,not been a good day for trading oh no it has not,flip,decrease,False,True,12271.1094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T21:29:24.219000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"How is this market a scam? A scam implies bettors were deceived, and I don't see any evidence of that",flip,hold,False,True,867.0365,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-09T15:35:38.389000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Have I got a market for you...,flip,hold,False,True,34.0581,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-03T17:28:22.782000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Or here is Michael Grimes, Musk’s lead banker at Morgan Stanley, pitching him on crypto mogul Sam Bankman-Fried on April",hold,decrease,False,True,28501.863,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-24T17:39:32.573000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"For some of us, it was a Christimas Mira-cle.",decrease,hold,False,True,884.9399,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T11:26:31.622000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I have to admit I can't guess what +'s reasoning is here.",flip,decrease,False,True,251.1035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T01:38:50.426000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Feel silly for reducing my position now...,decrease,decrease,True,True,337.1781,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T01:03:24.236000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,bro... D keeps offering her things for free. he doesn't do this with other women...,increase,increase,True,True,2664.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:00:38.045000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Considering the magnitude of problems and the number of people betting on this market because of those problems, a bit m",hold,decrease,False,True,1887.2279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-11-17T16:04:00.515000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"I won ~5k mana in two ( +one +, +two +) whalebait markets last week. They're not going anywhere. They're a type of game",decrease,increase,False,True,282.7989,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-18T01:15:39.555000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,I think it’s cleaner if I just gave up resolution responsibility to someone else trustworthy.,hold,decrease,False,True,24824.9545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-03-28T23:46:55.375000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"i dont see an effective way of moderating and banning these markets completely, but i do think its possible that they se",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-06-27T22:35:45.126000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,It was just a passing fad. Whalebait markets are not even being unlisted anymore.,increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-12T09:42:52.001000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1932478438775902575 +""BREAKING: First ever Tesla Model Y robotaxi with no-one in the ",flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:50:31.700000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I was about to say this - couldn't it be a nice crossover episode? If the rest of the gang agrees?,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-23T17:14:35.384000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I've been tricked way too many times with these types of markets where you have to guess what the creator meant by their,flip,decrease,False,True,107.1546,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-08T22:57:20.285000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MartinSicilian I am not sure what a ""settlement"" under these circumstances would mean other than a change in the price,",hold,hold,True,True,1023.0424,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:21:02.230000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Oh, nevermind, Episode 1 doesn't count since it's less than 20 minutes. So this market is approximately equivalent to ""W",decrease,decrease,True,True,179.8294,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2024-10-24T18:52:14.563000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"based on the title I think a predetermined bus route clearly doesn't qualify, unless you've got some definition of ""taxi",hold,increase,False,True,580.6033,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-15T00:36:29.994000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Might this constitute a ""major outage?"" Kinda hard to estimate the splash damage though, I guess +https://twitter.com/C",hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-22T02:16:19.127000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"You should take +this one + instead, it's more accurate.",hold,flip,False,True,3.4219,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-02-10T17:49:27.576000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Various reports with videos of 90 minute to 5.5 hour drives without touching steering wheel or pedals. +https://www.you",hold,increase,False,True,3069.6169,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-04-06T15:43:23.885000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"I wanna sell my NO shares (261 of them), anyone want to put up a limit order? +I don't have a change of opinion but I do",decrease,decrease,True,True,197.1129,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T15:36:22.533000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"In case it comes down to the line, California's time must be used to determine a resolution for this market. +I'm thinki",flip,decrease,False,True,198.9039,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T17:22:34.073000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Just leaved suggestions to this on Discord. Give a thumbs up, we need safe limits ASAP!",flip,hold,False,True,21.9409,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-29T10:16:01.372000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,but you are right. There will be no forgiveness if he fails.,increase,decrease,False,True,1649.3841,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:32:07.390000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,For real?! Weird. Should have just waited for it to resolve.,flip,decrease,False,True,749.5619,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:31:49.666000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Endlezz clarifications ARE NEEDED cuz u have previouzly indicated u will not resolve NO if the judge is a SCALLYWAG and ,flip,decrease,False,True,66787.158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T07:32:41.472000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,I don't think they care about revenue right now. They've been burning money for the past year.,hold,decrease,False,True,45.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:39:03.381000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,But this markets close date is three months earlier than the other one's 🤔,decrease,decrease,True,True,264.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-10T11:39:05.610000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Aww, I missed the chance to say ""but fortunately all of its mistakes have cancelled out""",hold,hold,True,True,11226.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T23:58:50.046000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE With respect, I think you need to read both people's comments and the legal analysis you're relying on more careful",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:32:16.963000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,well if its bait then I took it. I'm out,hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:38:39.069000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"I think a simple recap podcast is valid for resolution, to be clear. But I can also just make this resolve yes with mani",decrease,increase,False,True,1557.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:18:05.761000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,You are a troll no doubt. I never would have placed the limit orders that ended up causing me to lose 150 percent of my ,flip,decrease,False,True,21065.5342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:49:53.712000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Could we please brand Manifold Live Episode 2 as Market Manipulation Episode 6? It would be fitting....,decrease,hold,False,True,2008.4677,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-06-28T19:17:36.420000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"""by the end of X"" means at any time before the end of X. It doesn't have to still be restricted at the end of X.",hold,hold,True,True,1322.3953,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T10:52:11.050000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Delusional coomers thinking Destiny can align his plans with a fortnightly shower schedule,flip,increase,False,True,409.0909,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-22T07:52:27.521000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Update: I am down to my final streak forgiveness point, from the 8 I had earlier this month",flip,decrease,False,True,12361.1094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-15T19:43:50.397000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,gonna run out some of the forgiveness points it seems...,decrease,decrease,True,True,16.5479,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T11:23:23.203000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall my entire account was wiped out and many hours of time wasted. This market is garbage now and I should re,decrease,decrease,True,True,7252.0905,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-04-17T12:44:15.860000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,#thetagang she hasn’t even been on stream in a long while,decrease,increase,False,True,93873.9963,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-08-16T17:48:56.182000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,also we're on Google Podcasts now because why not,increase,hold,False,True,183.0339,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T16:31:50.035000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,how do you get that for any user?,increase,hold,False,True,40576.02,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T13:49:11.418000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"A mother and her son were in a very serious car accident. When taken to the hospital, a surgeon looks at the little boy ",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-23T12:50:03.995000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"The layoffs have been in effect for a week now, and the world cup has been going for a few days. There are increased rep",increase,increase,True,True,210.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-20T22:29:48.289000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"short-term, yes. Long-term I'd expect it to be an increaser. Losing all your mana to a bigger whale isn't great for user",hold,decrease,False,True,210.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T15:33:41.367000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"the criteria for market resolution is: +Length of time was longer than 1hr +Major enough to be on the front page of majo",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-24T18:44:08.559000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Sold my No shares--it sounds like the only qualification for a ""major outage"" is if we're met with a 502 page for an hou",hold,flip,False,True,93.0249,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:36:31.209000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"With BTE's other market, the lack of an instrinsic trigger for a NO resolution make me assume the close date was that so",hold,hold,True,True,72.5522,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:21:24.841000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"For some reason I now can't see my position here, but other markets are working.",decrease,decrease,True,True,45.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-05-15T18:33:08.234000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,at 6%/month for 19 months that adds up to a lot of banging,hold,increase,False,True,126526.0992,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:10:42.608000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,and YOU...you convinced be to sell and buy no lol with 8 hours to go,flip,decrease,False,True,9.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T19:25:03.335000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE strong feelingz, lots of your own money riding on it, questionable understanding of contract law, I LOVE IT! TRANCH",hold,increase,False,True,50127.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:47:48.423000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Ah shoot. Five episodes but only 4 with 20+ minutes + can you talk on record here for 20 minutes before EOY pls? 🥺😅",increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T08:22:40.636000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"right, I understand this is a limitation of current AI, which is exactly the point. A genuinely intelligent system would",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:02:23.475000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,U mite have 2 admit I'm a PROPHET not a troll,flip,increase,False,True,69987.158,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T06:02:08.644000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"got it got it +well all jokes aside you absolutely have to do what's right for you in the bigger picture of course! I'm",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-11T12:45:39.540000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Leaving this for whoever wants some side action +https://manifold.markets/challenges/BTE/will-a-delaware-judge-order-el",decrease,hold,False,True,18811.2197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-25T22:56:55.195000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Elon's daughter, Vivian, has said that Adrian Dittman is Elon. Not definitive I suppose but some evidence for YES",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6629cf792e12d850665432d33d1e9e0cdfc114e5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,299 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-08T22:40:00.963000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Gigacasting Dude, this is Delaware. You don't know what you are talking about. It will be ruled on very quickly. Musk s",flip,increase,False,True,973.0424,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-27T18:39:31.051000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"fuh made a market today, after 20h without apparent actions",flip,hold,False,True,502.3492,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-05-03T05:17:36.811000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"I'm not proposing this as a policy. This is an announcement posted on the Discord today by +, and, as I understand it, ",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-28T14:51:05.556000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"The first one is a slip where he refers to himself as Elon. That's more than speculation +I am Napoleon. +Would you cons",increase,decrease,False,True,4625.7345,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T13:49:11.418000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"A mother and her son were in a very serious car accident. When taken to the hospital, a surgeon looks at the little boy ",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:23:35.958000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"is it fake? i only got through about 20secs of it. +I mean, this is some devotion. I kinda respect it.",decrease,decrease,True,True,18.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:12:23.934000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Welp we can all head over to +'s market now I guess: +https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-manifold-be-working-normall",hold,hold,True,True,5.0249,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-09T10:57:58.806000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Now that firstuserhere has 13k no-shares, he will most likely NOT end his streak and buying no-shares is a very safe inv",increase,flip,False,True,626.8203,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T19:40:54.628000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"We've seen the letter now: +https://mobile.twitter.com/chancery_daily/status/1577377535255613442/photo/1 + +No way Twit",flip,increase,False,True,2.104,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-06T22:32:07.805000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"What is higher, 876.67896 or 876.6789567?",decrease,decrease,True,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-22T02:25:22.825000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,alright I'll remember the link now,flip,hold,False,True,107.1546,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-21T16:13:07.851000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@M presumably if the trial concludes and Twitter does not win, it would resolve no. Still waiting for a confirmation fro",hold,decrease,False,True,795.0118,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:43:18.418000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Yes, I value mana well below the purchase price. +Also, $100 might actually be too low. I’ll think more and try to get ",increase,decrease,False,True,1838.6829,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T19:52:11.768000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,But they would all know what pinky fingers are.,decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-05-19T02:28:40.269000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,Thanks! I agree that we're unlikely to end up in this particular corner case but I want to get this clarified in my own ,increase,hold,False,True,2.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-01-14T17:51:30.878000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"if the car has a driver, it is not autonomous. A safety driver is still a driver.",hold,increase,False,True,33271.0036,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:44:08.580000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Yes, I had to buy NO. Simply selling YES would have resulted in different profit than buying NO. I had a big YES positio",hold,flip,False,True,2571.3351,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T21:29:24.219000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"How is this market a scam? A scam implies bettors were deceived, and I don't see any evidence of that",flip,hold,False,True,867.0365,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-24T11:31:54.480000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Base rate for 2 people becoming romantically involved given only that they've had a small amount of contact online over ,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T19:17:16.894000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I agree. It’s excruciating but maybe it’s just not my jam and I don’t really see anything in the description ruling this,decrease,decrease,True,True,161.0881,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T19:53:37.537000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Thanks Daniel - yes I agree lots of gray areas right now! I definitely wouldn't feel good about resolving yet. +I agree ",decrease,decrease,True,True,61585.426,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-08T21:38:54.363000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,This just became the most likely outcome. https://apple.news/AITnrPca1S-SKqd9AHqLxaA,flip,increase,False,True,852.5167,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T09:10:45.748000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Do you have an opinion on whether this should Resolve N/A or Resolve NO? +I understand if you rather reserve your opini",hold,hold,True,True,40000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-16T16:56:29.552000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"They said below that it has to be something significant enough to be reported on by tech news sites, which this doesn't ",flip,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-22T13:39:50.006000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MP oh that is a really good point! I need to think about that for a minute.,decrease,decrease,True,True,2979.9205,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:16:21.405000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"I think I count 4 weeks here? So I guess just one more needed? +Edit: nope it is 5",decrease,decrease,True,True,257.043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:26:17.154000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@jack I updated the close date immediately after starting the market I believe, before anyone bet.",flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T05:20:26.411000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"satisfied to resolve yes? If not, please clarify why not. Thanks!",hold,hold,True,True,6000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:26:42.837000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Zomehow I lozt everything by betting xactly rite?,hold,decrease,False,True,63800.9802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:13:12.367000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Also why aren't you betting more,decrease,increase,False,True,257.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-28T04:03:53.166000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,none of these are anything more than speculation,increase,hold,False,True,4495.7345,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:34:59.619000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"By estimate, the stock market has more than 60% implicit probabilities of Musk acquiring Twitter. Obviously this market ",hold,decrease,False,True,594.8189,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-31T00:46:44.736000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Spindle well, I used quantum hyperbasian math like you suggested and it checked out.",flip,hold,False,True,4940.3266,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-28T11:50:04.017000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Yeah, I meant in the car. We do not fully know how Wyamo does remote safety monitoring either.",hold,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-29T20:19:18.270000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"I’m placing some YES limit orders, but I think the true probability of this is <10% - I just don’t want to hold so much ",flip,decrease,False,True,2520.0194,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-09-17T01:50:28.351000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,elon is such a genius that he intentionally hampers his own speaking ability while speaking as himself so that he can un,increase,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T23:43:31.261000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"There's also the chance the settlement would be a >$1B breakup fee, not an agreement to buy Twitter. This could be a goo",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T19:47:22.370000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,this is what I've been saying all this time. There needs to be compelling evidence and so far there is none that isn't e,flip,decrease,False,True,84.6673,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T14:18:00.327000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"track record doesn't weigh that heavily to me when it comes to weird insider/meta things on Manifold, but yes, I'm willi",increase,increase,True,True,1123.4781,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T08:50:23.778000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Yeah, I get that, especially no3. But I think the problem isnt that you're being mean to a fucking monarchist. I think i",decrease,hold,False,True,2100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-01T14:12:27.051000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Tesla won’t be using teleportations to drive their vehicles only for emergency situations like Waymo, silly!",hold,hold,True,True,419.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:01:53.152000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Btw. selling half my portfolio to buy NO here is pretty hard with the portfolio page not updating at all and still showi,increase,decrease,False,True,1644.2279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:43:32.155000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"The database is supposed to be up and running again, site is mostly working(if you can't see people's bets, hard-refresh",hold,hold,True,True,11254.5533,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:41:35.694000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,It only requires a Delaware judge to order specific performance. It resolves YES as soon as that happens. Does not matte,flip,hold,False,True,28781.863,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T18:32:31.535000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,This is an alignment problem though. It's not about intelligence it's about compliance.,decrease,hold,False,True,1692.551,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T05:58:33.771000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Spaces was down for longer than an hour from a ""legacy bug"". That should definitely count as a major outage. +https://fo",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:09:09.217000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"not or not not? +answer the question",decrease,decrease,True,True,45.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:04:42.469000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Is there a world where this resolves YES and https://manifold.markets/SG/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-this-yea resolves NO,flip,decrease,False,True,244.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T20:09:00.338000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"ya, the description is misleading lol. The speaker is talking about a tweet referencing DITTMAN as ""I"".",decrease,hold,False,True,4392.7034,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:42:42.228000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"This fits all of +'s criteria and more. The Twitter Spaces outage was a longer than 1h major outage that was reported o",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:29:14.522000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP buby I probably know a lot you dont,hold,hold,True,True,50055.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-06T21:54:08.578000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Ok, the case is now stayed for a bit. The court says that if they don't close by Oct. 28, there will be a trial in Novem",hold,decrease,False,True,2.104,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-11T18:14:37.434000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Sorry, can't use the hook anymore: +I'd like to hang a tea cup from a hanger. It's an ordinary tea cup with a handle att",hold,hold,True,True,2649.9449,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:55:45.061000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"@BTE Man, that hurt... I can't believe a quality assurance person would call this state of things ""fixed and working con",hold,decrease,False,True,1887.2279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:33:09.360000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,This market is mildly annoying. I have already lost a bunch on a bet meant to show my support for you to make the streak,hold,decrease,False,True,2151.2789,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2024-01-07T07:03:37.492000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"There are >5k unlisted markets, the fact that some make it past is indicative of just how much non predictive spam there",hold,decrease,False,True,496.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:18:54.505000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall that's one of the biggest spreads of mana on limit orders I've ever seen. You know something we don't abo,increase,decrease,False,True,834.7938,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T14:40:56.608000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"I get your point and agree. The one thing that we probably disagree on is the severity of this ""misresolvement"". I simpl",hold,hold,True,True,1887.2279,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T11:17:55.818000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"i am in NO aswell but that is just a likelyhood thing, but do you think that is whats stopping him loooooool",increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T19:03:04.580000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"A new investigation claims to prove it's not him, many biographical details line up. Seems pretty conclusive to me. +htt",decrease,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:42:10.938000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,haha I was doing that thing where I was unrealistically hopeful that Conflux would end up cross-posting the Manifold Liv,increase,decrease,False,True,1880.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-31T11:13:53.666000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"you can retweet if you want to +https://x.com/PoliticalEconPK/status/1874038589480460316?t=oWP4dxX2HtjyVO4xucpTNA&s=19",decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:38:39.069000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"I think a simple recap podcast is valid for resolution, to be clear. But I can also just make this resolve yes with mani",decrease,increase,False,True,1557.043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-15T19:43:50.397000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,gonna run out some of the forgiveness points it seems...,increase,decrease,False,True,16.5479,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:50:31.700000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I was about to say this - couldn't it be a nice crossover episode? If the rest of the gang agrees?,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-12-30T22:35:24.499000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,I have an idea guys: share this market on Twitter where people who're super confident Dittman = Elon will see it and com,increase,increase,True,True,165.7194,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T04:00:33.355000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Did people really bid this up to 97% because they didn't know about thinking mode? +lmao",increase,increase,True,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T17:52:17.150000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Yep, that's just one of many current problems, not that I am complaining (given my position 😄).",increase,hold,False,True,482.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:44:45.353000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@Spindle about M$12000 of the most delicious tranche you've ever seen.,increase,increase,True,True,834.7938,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-23T07:05:55.245000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,The probability legitimately jumped up with today's mini/trial launch. But there seem to be multiple ways this could sti,hold,decrease,False,True,67.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T11:37:29.426000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I certainly agree that more permissive norms make more sense for more meme/unranked/etc. markets, particularly those wit",decrease,decrease,True,True,6129.8231,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T16:38:00.696000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"It gets it right about half the time with this wording: +If you make a single straight cut through a donut shape, what i",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T18:39:03.381000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,But this markets close date is three months earlier than the other one's 🤔,flip,decrease,False,True,264.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-31T02:56:24.143000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Spindle WHY DON’T YOU CARE ABOUT THE COMMUNITY MAN?!? + +What I said before realizing I was actually grabbing my first",decrease,hold,False,True,8568.6835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T15:33:41.367000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"the criteria for market resolution is: +Length of time was longer than 1hr +Major enough to be on the front page of majo",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T01:03:24.236000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,bro... D keeps offering her things for free. he doesn't do this with other women...,increase,increase,True,True,2664.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:55:25.232000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@BTE I've been trading to close the gap between this market and the other one on the assumption that this one would clos,flip,decrease,False,True,264.5983,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-27T19:35:52.385000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,note: I just learned it doesn't count as a thing that extends the streak,flip,decrease,False,True,502.3492,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T03:51:42.458000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"there's still a lot of short term games to be played. +Regardless we'll dip back into the low 20s in the next 2 weeks i",decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T18:30:20.028000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,I would not be able to do this without connected tools for the vast majority of locations. I wonder if connecting gpt-5 ,decrease,decrease,True,True,1692.551,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:03:45.585000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,LOL I know of no rule against this,increase,hold,False,True,6847.8919,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T01:24:26.953000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Back now for me, but looking like that was over an hour if 713 EST was the right start time. I was still locked out at 8",increase,decrease,False,True,541.8775,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-03-28T23:50:34.399000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,they could limit a person's hourly or daily betting,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T15:04:44.098000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Would you mind explaining how it would mean effectively quitting manifold?,hold,hold,True,True,1887.2279,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:02:02.167000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Find me a legal opinion thAt disagrees with me. And I was pretty explicit in a previous comment in this thread that I DO,decrease,increase,False,True,18611.2197,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-07T09:34:24.118000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"No, I don't think that's possible",flip,hold,False,True,58025.411,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:57:20.027000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Another thing I'll mention is that the description for this one currently includes ""Close date updated to 2022-09-27 11:",flip,hold,False,True,264.5983,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:31:49.666000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Endlezz clarifications ARE NEEDED cuz u have previouzly indicated u will not resolve NO if the judge is a SCALLYWAG and ,flip,decrease,False,True,66787.158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T19:30:57.313000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Only one deal has ever been thrown out by a Delaware court because of a material adverse effect of one party’s disclosur,flip,decrease,False,True,1234.909,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-09T15:36:58.342000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I'll sell my YES shares to you in a challenge bet if you're so confident. :D,flip,hold,False,True,34.0581,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-02-10T18:09:04.061000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,IF the Mercedes drive from factory to loading dock was a not a one off stunt or test then they would show all cars makin,hold,increase,False,True,3069.6169,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-15T19:10:33.327000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Scott Galloway did a great job on his podcast with Kara Swisher today summarizing the way the Delaware courts operate. T,decrease,increase,False,True,2266.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T02:54:45.968000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Said poll should probably include the best evidence from both sides as context. It seems like a lot of people aren't awa,decrease,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-16T00:45:01.222000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"This is true, except it’s pretty rare you are able to meaningfully deploy significant capital on a 2-3 day turnaround. P",flip,hold,False,True,1234.0909,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-17T21:39:13.009000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"I think the most appropriate way to extend this market would be to change the expiration to the ""drop dead"" date on the ",decrease,hold,False,True,2781.5329,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-26T17:24:15.609000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"Short of out right banning, the ""restricted"" criteria as been the ambiguous one for me. Like, does it need to be an act",hold,decrease,False,True,303.916,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T16:39:13.495000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I see nothing wrong with betting on insider information. Insider information can be wrong. +Just as insider trading is k",increase,hold,False,True,40576.02,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T20:33:56.539000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MartinRandall that was probably a good move. Like I said, I started this market because I wanted to draw attention to t",flip,decrease,False,True,1859.7802,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-16T23:24:34.587000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@JamesBabcock Most cases don't involved hundreds of thousands of individual parties (Twitter shareholders) who deserve a,decrease,increase,False,True,2781.5329,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-02T15:09:23.924000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"Like, ask yourself: is Elon Musk doing a 3 hour chess stream between two of his ""friends"" on an alt account? Wouldn't E",decrease,increase,False,True,3142.7034,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T02:26:05.705000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@PeterBorah https://twitter.com/SquawkStreet/status/1547248567143862273 +Well, a former vice-chancellor thinks that the ",increase,decrease,False,True,140.1484,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-31T03:03:11.317000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP i have no sympathy for me either. I honestly spent a good portion of the day making fun of myself for being such ,decrease,decrease,True,True,8568.6835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-29T10:09:55.141000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the courage of + fails, when we f",flip,increase,False,True,1624.3841,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:19:13.275000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Apparently it's possible to review market resolutions now,hold,hold,True,True,223.73,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-06-06T21:50:44.725000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,The odds of this are getting higher by the day.,hold,increase,False,True,225.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-28T21:55:14.453000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"from where I sit, there is no one more invested in ensuring an outcome to this market than + +take solace in knowing i",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-28T11:38:23.094000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,All streaks are set/reset at midnight PT i believe,decrease,hold,False,True,38228.74,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-09T15:35:38.389000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Have I got a market for you...,flip,hold,False,True,34.0581,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:51:37.371000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,i sense a controversial resolution incoming,flip,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-06-27T22:35:45.126000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,It was just a passing fad. Whalebait markets are not even being unlisted anymore.,increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-22T07:52:27.521000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Update: I am down to my final streak forgiveness point, from the 8 I had earlier this month",flip,decrease,False,True,12361.1094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T01:49:15.221000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Hah. Wish I stuck with my original bet and bought more. ty.,increase,increase,True,True,195.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-23T01:06:09.058000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Someone seems to be having fun: +Elon Musk on Twitter: ""Wasn’t Twitter supposed to die by now or something … ?"" / Twitte",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-06T18:58:56.356000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"""I think you missed the joke"" is equivalent to telling it ""you're answer is wrong, this is a prank type question, and yo",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:10:20.980000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,Apparently some children's shoes actually do have left and right markings so I tried the same prompt with penny loafers,decrease,decrease,True,True,1198.9906,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-03T22:17:48.348000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"they made an update, admitting that the screenshots are fake.",increase,increase,True,True,125.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-08-29T23:20:30.674000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,my interpretation before you made the clarification about safety monitors was that it would resolve yes as you had speci,increase,decrease,False,True,1250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-04-06T15:43:23.885000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"I wanna sell my NO shares (261 of them), anyone want to put up a limit order? +I don't have a change of opinion but I do",decrease,decrease,True,True,197.1129,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-13T21:56:33.062000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@PeterBorah after taking the ""pedo guy"" libel case all the way to trial where he testified he had no money to pay a judg",decrease,decrease,True,True,2016.762,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T16:50:28.250000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,Okay y'all let's negotiate: what percent do we have to keep this at so that Isaac promotes but Mira doesn't demote?,increase,hold,False,True,6847.8919,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T22:58:27.434000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP my new calculations put a ceiling price at 29%.,flip,decrease,False,True,3944.1808,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:40:28.762000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"I had been wanting to give Conflux a chance to sell his ""no"" position but I think he's taking a loss here no matter what",decrease,decrease,True,True,1557.043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:49:20.455000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I'm either dumb or naive or hopeful 😅,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:35:06.379000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"if you sold your NO, the market went up, which is effectively like buying YES. Even if you've exited the market, any fur",flip,decrease,False,True,12713.1207,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-23T17:14:35.384000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I've been tricked way too many times with these types of markets where you have to guess what the creator meant by their,increase,decrease,False,True,107.1546,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-28T11:37:44.779000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,What time zone is activity based on? FUH had a trade 8 hours ago which probably counts for the 27th? So 4 days to go wit,decrease,decrease,True,True,1276.7511,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T02:50:40.140000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,I've posted my thoughts in a separate comment for visibility,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:42:42.174000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"If that is the case, might as well drop all of our manna on this question 🫠",flip,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T13:38:45.431000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Lol, I believe i was ranting at you for trolling this market. It will resolve honorably.",flip,increase,False,True,28781.863,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-01T20:14:46.700000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,wait so ur setting a bigger standard for Tesla then Waymo? Why not hold them at the same standard? And no they won’t be ,hold,hold,True,True,419.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T07:08:03.123000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinSicilian there is no amount of settlement that gets twitter back to $54.20 maybe for years. Everyone associated w,flip,increase,False,True,1023.0424,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-08-06T12:26:18.113000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,So Elon said this morning that if Twitter can prove its bot numbers are accurate the deal should close at the original t,decrease,increase,False,True,14478.5448,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T21:49:11.075000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,I could not agree more. I would personally rather make markets than trade. Liquidity provision is the most under explore,flip,hold,False,True,20836.6445,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-16T03:41:14.768000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I think the claim that it reduces the discount rate by half is only true if you invest everything in long-term markets. ,decrease,hold,False,True,18425.6094,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:32:07.390000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,For real?! Weird. Should have just waited for it to resolve.,flip,decrease,False,True,749.5619,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T15:21:13.958000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Then why was it front page news? If it’s a major news story, it meets the criteria that + laid out. If being front page",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T10:27:24.617000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@Spindle Obviously you can waste your money on whatever you want, but shit like this destroys the community. This questi",decrease,hold,False,True,7252.0905,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:33:38.157000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"My opinion has shifted and I think you could consider this not egregious. +If your intelligent mathematician friend came",increase,decrease,False,True,39.6822,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-04T22:20:06.551000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,We may not get unanimous community consensus that Adrian is not Elon. Can you further define the bar you are holding for,decrease,decrease,True,True,1300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-05T02:51:04.201000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Doesn't it create incentives for market manipulation?,decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-28T19:52:01.328000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"I dissected Musk's statement a bit here: +https://agifriday.substack.com/p/turkla +I pretty much agree with everyone in",hold,decrease,False,True,67.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T15:23:28.404000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"This is interesting as a market, but relatively uninteresting from the point of view of Twitter as a business. E.g. even",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-19T18:15:45.435000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Judge has ordered that the trial is set for October, Musk lost on his motion to delay to 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2022/",increase,decrease,False,True,661.5867,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-19T05:00:37.931000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"They use synonyms like ""twitter spaces is down"" and ""twitter spaces stopped functioning"" 🤷 +Is your updated criteria for",hold,decrease,False,True,110.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-29T21:59:07.101000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,I could argue that one sided love isn't real love it would rather be just obsession but I don't believe that love is a t,increase,decrease,False,True,23.8266,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:21:02.230000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Oh, nevermind, Episode 1 doesn't count since it's less than 20 minutes. So this market is approximately equivalent to ""W",flip,decrease,False,True,179.8294,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T10:43:30.400000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"If the service of a feature is unavailable and we haven’t heard a prior announcement of it being discontinued, it meets ",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-22T02:05:38.874000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Online tests are inaccurate anyways.,flip,decrease,False,True,107.1546,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:14:28.432000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"at this rate, it’ll be a YES by EoY though",decrease,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:29:22.016000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP My limit orders are at m1000 because the system won't let me place ones at m2000.,flip,hold,False,True,93.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-14T02:08:19.130000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@PeterBorah you are right about the SEC comment being ridiculous. I should have just used his utter lack of respect for ,decrease,decrease,True,True,2166.762,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:53:26.985000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"same issue with mine, but it is what it is. + has decided. +I enjoyed my stay.",hold,decrease,False,True,40000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2024-07-17T06:24:47.723000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,Dittman was discussing the inner workings of SpaceX with Alex Jones the other day! If he's some rando on Twitter who 'ju,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:14:09.424000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"nope, profit graphs still don't load, displayed trader payouts on market resolve are still incorrect and i can't see my ",flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-01T13:01:08.901000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"the manifold anti-addiction challenge, to see what the price of a week off is",hold,hold,True,True,90.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T11:04:34.894000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,This is egregious. Seems immediately obvious it is 2.,flip,increase,False,True,240.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:02:32.024000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,Okay everyone leave it still for a minute so we can confirm that when the rankings refresh haha,increase,hold,False,True,6847.8919,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-03-28T23:55:22.934000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,or hourly or daily betting on a particular market,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:34:41.899000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,This is my current losses on the market. I really thought it was easy to break the streak. its not,flip,decrease,False,True,12271.1094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T12:05:03.317000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Easily proven. Just use a variation of the famous surgeon riddle. By replacing father with mother, the model deduces tha",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-11T15:30:04.525000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"the new goal post is ""there is a chaser car behind it so it doesn't count""",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T18:02:23.475000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,U mite have 2 admit I'm a PROPHET not a troll,flip,increase,False,True,69987.158,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2024-01-29T05:37:15.659000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"There are only so many ""non traditional"" women in the world and Destiny is on a quest to catch them all",increase,increase,True,True,410.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T15:36:22.533000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"In case it comes down to the line, California's time must be used to determine a resolution for this market. +I'm thinki",flip,decrease,False,True,198.9039,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-02T14:59:29.283000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,"-despite having superficially similar voices (perhaps due to efforts on the part of Dittman), their speaking styles are ",decrease,increase,False,True,2642.7034,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T13:51:51.603000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,But that dynamic (which I might agree is not something we want to generalize) is orthogonal to the point you were making,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-03T05:36:45.082000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"there's absolutely no way it's romance, what they gonna get engaged or somethin?",hold,decrease,False,True,1288.4091,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-08-29T17:50:57.641000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"When they have sex Aella will have a sex review with him and that's how it's gonna go public, ty free fake money.",hold,increase,False,True,3630.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T20:28:56.146000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Printed M$ just by playing the spread. Why are you bozos selling YES for 2% only to push it up to 98% in one big spike? ,flip,decrease,False,True,416.3726,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-31T02:29:28.290000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@martinrandall nailed the description of what transpired this morning.,decrease,hold,False,True,8568.6835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:46:36.452000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Poll question on the topic (in general, not specific to this market): https://manifold.markets/jack/poll-how-likely-are-",increase,hold,False,True,200.7419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:03:08.694000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"i can close for 5 mins if it gives everyone a peace of mind. once it updates, can reopen.",flip,decrease,False,True,12713.1207,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:55:13.131000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I'm getting the same issue. Can't use the web version. Haven't tried the app.,flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:32:17.899000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Actually to be more precise we determined it could resolve YES in appeal because it will only resolve when the matter re,decrease,hold,False,True,18611.2197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-08-09T07:34:33.811000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"My own test of what + posted earlier",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T15:04:54.604000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Well, to be fair, this market does come off as a bit cetacean. FUH explicitly says, ""WARNING // Whale fight ongoing // Y",increase,decrease,False,True,1123.4781,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:35:12.280000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,regardless of the outcome and opinions here I hope it's a fun ongoing project for you! ✨,increase,hold,False,True,1880.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-10T21:39:57.824000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,Link to a Tesla robotaxi and chaser car presumably with the teleoperator ready to take over if the robotaxi makes a mist,hold,decrease,False,True,69876.3345,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:58:06.829000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,I did not set a high bar for this market. I just wanted to be able to load my portfolio honestly.,hold,decrease,False,True,24824.9545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-24T19:21:29.176000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Keep in mind, they have been testing with employees in California and Texas (e.g. people commuting to the factory) for a",increase,increase,True,True,60.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T06:31:54.739000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,At best the staff comes back to the office and rolled back the code to Friday. At worst it’s a full system meltdown that,flip,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-04-25T15:17:41.794000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,Can some affirm or confirm for me the following definitions: Need to verify my understanding aligns with the market and ,flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T17:22:34.073000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Just leaved suggestions to this on Discord. Give a thumbs up, we need safe limits ASAP!",flip,hold,False,True,21.9409,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T23:00:38.045000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Considering the magnitude of problems and the number of people betting on this market because of those problems, a bit m",hold,decrease,False,True,1887.2279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T22:45:45.550000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"Yeah it also suggests looking at manufacturer tags, id numbers, etc. to gather proof of the defect. +Like if you were a ",decrease,increase,False,True,1198.9906,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T06:25:51.148000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@akhil Musk's claims are not ""weakish"", they are laughably nonexistent. He literally didn't even try to provide any evid",flip,increase,False,True,1431.3499,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:35:08.183000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"I assumed the due date was open to extension due to a combination of: + a) no stated deadline + b) the long dur",decrease,hold,False,True,72.5522,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-09-21T22:00:03.346000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,would you like to bet in this?,increase,hold,False,True,1070.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-23T08:58:58.612000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"Tesla won’t be using teleportations to drive their vehicles +I, for one, would be very impressed if they use teleportati",hold,hold,True,True,950.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T05:58:19.778000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"https://www.reuters.com/technology/after-elon-musks-ultimatum-twitter-employees-start-exiting-2022-11-18/ +Reporting in ",decrease,increase,False,True,483.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-18T14:43:45.601000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Also I'm seeing ""No Groups yet"" when I try to add this market to a group. That can't be right, given that I've created t",hold,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-08T11:32:39.854000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"I don’t think it is fair to bias toward yes after the market closed without ever stating you were going to do that. +I t",hold,decrease,False,True,125.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-31T02:40:15.793000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@BTE mmm, gotcha. Then yeah, I don't really have any sympathy for you dude... you placed limit orders, and they were ful",increase,hold,False,True,834.7938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-08T22:57:20.285000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@MartinSicilian I am not sure what a ""settlement"" under these circumstances would mean other than a change in the price,",flip,hold,False,True,1023.0424,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-09T05:54:01.719000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,shame you can't write off instances like this (in which your decisions help strangers earn mana) as charitable donations,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T22:48:46.601000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@jfjurchen I suggest requiring a brief description of the reason for any update to closing date of resolution criteria. ,flip,hold,False,True,1859.7802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:12:56.190000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,I don't care about leagues. The #1 prize is only 3000 mana. Anyone who thinks or talks about leagues is misallocating at,hold,increase,False,True,87459.2881,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-03-22T01:07:31.501000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Does it count as romantically involved if Destiny gets invited to a sex party and rails Aella there but never talks to h,decrease,decrease,True,True,82100.0545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2024-10-24T18:52:14.563000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"based on the title I think a predetermined bus route clearly doesn't qualify, unless you've got some definition of ""taxi",hold,increase,False,True,580.6033,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T02:45:18.263000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"Yeah, IIRC you said that any Delaware judge (initial ruling or appeal) would count. That was someone else's suggestion w",hold,hold,True,True,1878.004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T19:26:59.772000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"yeah, a google maps MCP server is a good technical solution for this; even an answer saying “Google maps is a better fit",hold,decrease,False,True,55.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-05-21T01:28:21.067000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,How does this resolve if Twitter litigates but it is settled out of court?,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-10-04T16:27:20.584000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"And if the judge doesn't say a thing, because the purchase proceeds as proposed ""O_O""",decrease,flip,False,True,23.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-09T16:12:47.921000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,"@PeterBorah bank financing is to Twitter now, not Musk. It’s no longer a margin loan but instead a leveraged buyout.",flip,hold,False,True,1048.0424,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T20:09:16.354000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,It's running perfectly for me at the moment fingers crossed....but the last hour I couldnt get anything to load,flip,decrease,False,True,9.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-01-05T20:49:48.615000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Congrats on tricking the bots into buying so much yes,increase,hold,False,True,3254.1867,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:01:22.832000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"They said below that it has to be something significant enough to be reported on by tech news sites. Specifically: +I pl",flip,hold,False,True,531.5264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T17:44:36.487000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"wanted to bet Yes cuz it was at 41% but then i realized it's just lagging and is actually at 51% +so i put 10Ṁ on No ins",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-06-28T11:48:07.707000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"to be accurate, Elon said there was no teleoperator intervention. He did not say there was no teleoperator monitoring, s",hold,decrease,False,True,69999.4221,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-30T08:14:20.732000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Alright, EOY stuff is expensive and I would like some mana, so I'll share some screenshots and put up some NO limit orde",decrease,decrease,True,True,171242.4658,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-05-21T01:45:18.156000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@Gigacasting shareholders can decide not to tender but that would be insane based on the incredible price. That is the o,hold,increase,False,True,45.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-20T10:08:06.062000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"I have a feeling this market ( +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-manifold-deem-bte-unworthy-of +) will be serious",hold,hold,True,True,1887.2279,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-01T17:09:40.626000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"Right now leagues show me at +6k on this market and -1k overall, so I just need 2k more profit. But earlier they showed ",hold,decrease,False,True,121287.7033,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-11T19:10:08.325000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,It’s probably not a tight fit at all,decrease,hold,False,True,46353.0695,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-24T17:39:32.573000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"For some of us, it was a Christimas Mira-cle.",flip,hold,False,True,884.9399,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-04-10T21:44:29.653000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,Is destiny even a sadist sexually?,decrease,hold,False,True,92206.8812,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7,2025-05-19T05:22:55.028000+00:00,Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?,"But if the car ever decides it's unclear/stuck while traveling at highway speed... I mean, that case is obvious but the ",hold,decrease,False,True,27.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-30T13:33:12.298000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MattP BTE was here first but was on tilt.,flip,hold,False,True,93.6174,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-12-26T11:26:31.622000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"I have to admit I can't guess what +'s reasoning is here.",flip,decrease,False,True,251.1035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-09-08T16:08:06.542000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Want to do a challenge bet? I will let you choose the terms.,decrease,hold,False,True,18611.2197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:30:51.938000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,">next episodes will probably be 12-15mins and faster +You are so based and I love you",decrease,hold,False,True,65.2922,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-06-28T02:54:09.083000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,"The new policy is to not subsidize them, which is not really a restriction, and to limit mana purchases per day, which i",decrease,hold,False,True,166.1668,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-10T19:12:29.024000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,Market on if the lawsuit will be settled out of court: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-twitter-and-elon-musk-settle-a,increase,hold,False,True,200.7419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:24:15.497000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"agree - if it's related, I hope the market was just the impetus but the intention is to continue creating episodes? +I'm",increase,decrease,False,True,1880.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-09T01:08:21.290000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,Oh when I first read the question I thought the trick was that it wouldn't realize there weren't two pinkies on one hand,increase,decrease,False,True,1500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T08:05:07.402000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,this seems more like a temporary feature removal than an outage. I've used Twitter for years and didn't even know that S,increase,increase,True,True,181.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-09T22:34:01.278000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"Not going to put too much more money in this market bc of resolution date and I'm risk-adverse, but holy hell is this ma",hold,decrease,False,True,1230.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:38:46.459000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"lots of complicated thoughts here +happy to guarantee a payment to MMP $150 from Manifold, less to pay for a marginal po",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-31T01:13:05.470000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@MartinRandall most people forget to carry the three but ur calculationz check out!,hold,hold,True,True,50127.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +s59ThphjPLk0jIRU3IbM,2025-01-06T04:30:05.553000+00:00,Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) Elon Musk?,I've never seen a market in more need of resolution...,hold,decrease,False,True,8219.9381,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-11-20T21:16:04.412000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,"yea, i can see strong reasons to think that + shouldn't be allowed to bet on this market since he can control the outco",decrease,decrease,True,True,1365.5319,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-10-11T21:52:51.080000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"one way that Aella and Destiny could bang +https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/unlinked-multiple-choice-anyone-can",hold,hold,True,True,206423.487,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +u8yQQpP0UfnDhe1AaVqG,2023-10-11T23:30:32.660000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?,why don't you just break the streak? wtf,flip,decrease,False,True,124.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T22:52:28.022000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,"Mine is showing sold positions as active, therefore I think it's not updating. You can check that I have sold the Twitte",hold,decrease,False,True,1887.2279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5RcECd9PAc,2025-09-07T14:04:05.048000+00:00,Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?,"to me chat GPT is arguing mathematics versus common sense. If you asked, “If a person cuts a donut one time, how many pi",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +TxoQ69Pn9va9e1bZgyBq,2022-07-27T13:37:44.077000+00:00,Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?,@Gigacasting I was just admiring your track record on your profile and I noticed that the numbers for this market are sc,increase,hold,False,True,3079.9205,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +j7ytEnyhPWpTqXgI5Jm2,2023-07-17T21:32:01.976000+00:00,Will Manifold work again by the end of July 17?,Take your time. Finishing the fixes tomorrow would be perfect for my bet here!,flip,increase,False,True,230.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd,2023-02-04T04:39:31.940000+00:00,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,"Yeah, can vouch for Isaac being super trustworthy. Long record of accurate resolutions",increase,hold,False,True,170.8965,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:33:14.443000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,If it's 15 minutes or less I'll listen to it fwiw,decrease,hold,False,True,65.2922,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +pV7RzKqUCWE9yqLUidm1,2023-06-30T19:55:58.988000+00:00,Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?,Looks like Manifold is still actively working on tools to automate identification of self-referential markets (i.e. whal,increase,decrease,False,True,893.916,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7df38db160b03fa04f61e336f0c753e60b3e9740 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.32570220631264546,0.2783074273920185,-0.047394778920626934,DOWN,0.32569450907669534,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Is ""gpt2-chatbot"" GPT-4's Successor?",10,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.3974075876594485,0.3205831083986424,-0.0768244792608061,DOWN,0.20201836044946478,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will Manifold deem @BTE unworthy of a ""Trustworthy. Ish."" badge by the end of 2023?",8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.3301451531649867,0.21281122203578492,-0.11733393112920179,DOWN,0.9965304013481152,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,13,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.6848449950503321,0.9772160166244445,0.2923710215741123,UP,0.4192008540026199,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"Will Manifold deem @BTE unworthy of a ""Trustworthy. Ish."" badge by the end of 2023?",8,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.5152217628651804,0.4841632394581094,-0.031058523407070993,DOWN,0.09090954803700071,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will GPT-4 have over 1 trillion parameters?,18,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.3105451287389366,0.2317212334064256,-0.078823895332511,DOWN,0.20603124183134355,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.2837147371027171,0.3974075876594485,0.1136928505567314,UP,0.685906633964277,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Manifold deem @BTE unworthy of a ""Trustworthy. Ish."" badge by the end of 2023?",8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.17771054066958641,0.23051661918971258,0.05280607852012617,UP,0.9038629620451502,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Manifold have a day over 1350 engaged users in Aug?,33,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.22211088851665134,0.2520676215129931,0.029956732996341773,UP,0.8397725514520391,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,13,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.6900343275254474,0.6735619925292364,-0.016472334996210924,DOWN,0.7433919163478595,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.30070058285479795,0.039999999999999994,-0.26070058285479797,DOWN,0.6571215526431862,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?,18,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.5966531913753271,0.5667895992087598,-0.02986359216656731,DOWN,0.622220132718827,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will GPT-4 have over 1 trillion parameters?,18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.16679235612357263,0.0736567160641228,-0.09313564005944983,DOWN,0.7808178740834182,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Manifold have a day over 1350 engaged users in Aug?,33,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.2520676215129931,0.38144210302294324,0.12937448150995012,UP,0.14017718463790463,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,13,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.29336727510432364,0.19301556313998058,-0.10035171196434306,DOWN,0.5442946745113586,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,13,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.0736567160641228,0.19569571381796616,0.12203899775384336,UP,0.7486375095778834,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Manifold have a day over 1350 engaged users in Aug?,33,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.9772160166244445,0.99953978964977,0.02232377302532551,UP,0.2206746320666744,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Manifold deem @BTE unworthy of a ""Trustworthy. Ish."" badge by the end of 2023?",11,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.3502593061144647,0.34072607717746206,-0.009533228937002647,DOWN,0.048189486437040095,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.6735619925292364,0.4349995229045923,-0.2385624696246441,DOWN,0.7991184622765526,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.16204565482879574,0.18188777797846106,0.019842123149665325,UP,0.9745438342251067,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +20,0.5667895992087598,0.7627241395614656,0.19593454035270574,UP,0.3569417888680046,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will GPT-4 have over 1 trillion parameters?,18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +21,0.10798799118832023,0.08470703145085796,-0.023280959737462262,DOWN,0.8858278645780395,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?",86,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +22,0.4720059157929494,0.38406289465192295,-0.08794302114102648,DOWN,0.07561314473858127,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?,14,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +23,0.17765643726989153,0.15042670622358406,-0.027229731046307465,DOWN,0.6547165500509705,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Is ""gpt2-chatbot"" GPT-4's Successor?",10,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +24,0.5834736088946106,0.857483447563399,0.27400983866878836,UP,0.5720735393234391,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +25,0.38144210302294324,0.37091913524966397,-0.010522967773279268,DOWN,0.7538329044896834,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,13,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +26,0.32783846287325474,0.3502593061144647,0.022420843241209965,UP,0.9315235274060018,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,9,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +27,0.18188777797846106,0.22977075475791073,0.047882976779449665,UP,0.979133493192572,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,16,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +28,0.2317212334064256,0.3183720356830068,0.08665080227658123,UP,0.947092172577926,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +29,0.3183720356830068,0.32783846287325474,0.009466427190247928,UP,0.7159371216963631,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +30,0.38406289465192295,0.365711638499112,-0.01835125615281097,DOWN,0.1067554072423321,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?,14,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +31,0.365711638499112,0.33091001445897644,-0.03480162404013554,DOWN,0.8468577839970097,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?,14,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +32,0.4500015607247306,0.3105451287389366,-0.139456431985794,DOWN,0.5605682716877928,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,9,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +33,0.19569571381796616,0.08178661495085278,-0.11390909886711338,DOWN,0.6602638156534443,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Manifold have a day over 1350 engaged users in Aug?,33,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +34,0.34072607717746206,0.29336727510432364,-0.04735880207313842,DOWN,0.7167102707892056,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +35,0.5951349399142939,0.23780835281642707,-0.3573265870978668,DOWN,0.6084323112915058,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Manifold have a day over 1350 engaged users in Aug?,33,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +36,0.26296197575601366,0.20327812741473705,-0.0596838483412766,DOWN,0.0884411283962473,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,"Will Manifold deem @BTE unworthy of a ""Trustworthy. Ish."" badge by the end of 2023?",8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +37,0.335469568397123,0.1847378407390994,-0.1507317276580236,DOWN,0.745766386771169,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,9,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +38,0.22685848809683623,0.30070058285479795,0.07384209475796172,UP,0.7654591356400792,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?,14,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +39,0.513083658745579,0.3532448153687389,-0.15983884337684012,DOWN,0.7712637191379419,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,8,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ac7601df756a4e64d3e32999d14284ab86e50739 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +3,0.4996675020260809,0.2227201823583922,-0.2769473196676887,DOWN,0.8167645060217735,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Manifold have a day over 1350 engaged users in Aug?,37,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0,0.5419429664836929,0.5810243488576334,0.03908138237394054,UP,0.02857142857142857,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Manifold have a day over 1350 engaged users in Aug?,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.31321771776602125,0.3061735041322961,-0.007044213633725149,DOWN,0.3465254233329112,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Is ""gpt2-chatbot"" GPT-4's Successor?",4,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.33012165639219826,0.22084284824950468,-0.10927880814269358,DOWN,0.5992909808433898,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?,8,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.7421152566785237,0.7101510958746293,-0.031964160803894415,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.4881953630917052,0.26911793005998125,-0.21907743303172394,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.30163818259308617,0.3146866057534788,0.01304842316039262,UP,0.011394512489748007,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,"Is ""gpt2-chatbot"" GPT-4's Successor?",18,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.3270957876821776,0.3084806059819504,-0.018615181700227246,DOWN,0.39391330642276556,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,23,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.1506492809325393,0.18100096709874458,0.03035168616620529,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,2,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.12567634060915395,0.11029620772963923,-0.015380132879514716,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,2,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.7402933159760096,0.8809163273391349,0.14062301136312538,UP,0.8878226176870022,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,45,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.3124902912231327,0.29533468905129445,-0.017155602171838258,DOWN,0.8644258519564196,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?,3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.18629934716952581,0.21237970941656878,0.026080362247042965,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Manifold deem @BTE unworthy of a ""Trustworthy. Ish."" badge by the end of 2023?",3,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.0309019358471606,0.017550808178586515,-0.013351127668574086,DOWN,0.7223334873432596,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?",4,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.6915758316421012,0.7318923193908937,0.040316487748792484,UP,0.6712239805163744,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,19,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.9271393923832155,0.899520010511051,-0.027619381872164506,DOWN,0.9023696867938164,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will GPT-4 have over 1 trillion parameters?,7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.22434464750070132,0.23288840308086528,0.008543755580163959,UP,0.6570550393060975,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?,5,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.18346445450761237,0.039808972458458415,-0.14365548204915396,DOWN,0.9858350724396719,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,35,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +21,0.14346038495871868,0.07405676759665308,-0.0694036173620656,DOWN,0.7046226584066769,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Manifold have a day over 1350 engaged users in Aug?,21,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.5359961874613097,0.34553257631144796,-0.19046361114986177,DOWN,0.14285714285714285,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?,7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.5732461743310515,0.7844191432515136,0.2111729689204621,UP,0.8183604050657064,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will GPT-4 have over 1 trillion parameters?,26,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +20,0.6329788366286422,0.5823013412789385,-0.05067749534970367,DOWN,0.7235199890411973,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will GPT-4 have over 1 trillion parameters?,46,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +28,0.02694112338603502,0.03445001775935643,0.007508894373321411,UP,0.9903440953635703,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,"Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?",41,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +24,0.3241945683472214,0.18467512016881169,-0.1395194481784097,DOWN,0.5119907086621199,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,16,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +25,0.3680795415832902,0.45520112853494904,0.08712158695165884,UP,0.9369187389302508,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,7,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +22,0.36386231744516134,0.27666605600550354,-0.08719626143965781,DOWN,0.8628347424776636,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,39,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +26,0.3216502433670937,0.21241962802467007,-0.10923061534242362,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +23,0.05249041703252834,0.039628644580935166,-0.012861772451593173,DOWN,0.5785652121415699,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?",8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +27,0.23152624566486846,0.2077100947267325,-0.023816150938135966,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will Manifold deem @BTE unworthy of a ""Trustworthy. Ish."" badge by the end of 2023?",6,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +31,0.3040399022474549,0.3247328885815832,0.020692986334128305,UP,0.04005424413986811,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,17,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +35,0.5687903933476363,0.8672372201646898,0.2984468268170536,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,2,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +29,0.31382520648176404,0.26517562368306935,-0.04864958279869469,DOWN,0.6248884301870055,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +30,0.38878986161403883,0.33155667141202216,-0.05723319020201667,DOWN,0.43856364322629016,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?,12,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +34,0.36641041324821233,0.3245088796691647,-0.041901533579047634,DOWN,0.4206498207490635,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?,5,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +32,0.36565963304105326,0.3174163009750715,-0.04824333206598175,DOWN,0.9972732471901221,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,5,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +37,0.3164048547788926,0.20152651061463145,-0.11487834416426113,DOWN,0.9458134830885856,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,"Will Manifold deem @BTE unworthy of a ""Trustworthy. Ish."" badge by the end of 2023?",14,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +33,0.19388146342160914,0.3614065416250695,0.16752507820346038,UP,0.6894070773482952,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?,35,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +36,0.19312385364664136,0.23097063555616323,0.03784678190952187,UP,0.9201923534081728,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Manifold have a day over 1350 engaged users in Aug?,66,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +39,0.3456612307592867,0.3244016797525281,-0.02125955100675858,DOWN,0.8611341322960367,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,16,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +38,0.2725330944950801,0.20372133974787943,-0.06881175474720069,DOWN,0.9999890563682948,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?,2,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e733b7b82ae9ff7519ae091a3f0a2b3d0732d008 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,301 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +512662,2024-11-11T18:04:45.901161Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Just a small correction to shake over leveraged longs... and back to 90K,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T07:17:04.052321Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Guys remember, if someone actually publishes coin from his account, he will later claim he was hacked, so just sell duri",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:59.559189Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your no's before it's too late. I am here for the people,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T23:02:09.117757Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"down $5k in this market but up by more in a related market, GuyWhoFcks was questioning the quality of the hedged bet, i ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T19:07:51.324295Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bruh he literally said he¡¯s not doing a coin,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:46:03.140919Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,then go to this market and 5x ur money https://polymarket.com/event/did-kanye-sell-his-twitter-account?tid=1740278496346,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-14T15:47:33.337312Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Bitcoin is still over extended. It was up 40% in a week. You really expect it to do another 40%? We are going sideways f,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T18:32:09.863188Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"you make a fair point, history shows a 100% record for green shoe and 100% record for even more capital than that. I'm g",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T18:44:38.534693Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow you should sell at 40, you can get $250,000, there is no liquidity on holidays",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-01-31T22:53:16.022098Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,You mean your broker took your money today,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:30:01.971442Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nice one, you bought at the right time and saw the vision",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:12:31.652031Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"I know you lost several thousand, but why not put $100-200 more into a NO. If it lands you get some money back, if yes y",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-04T14:53:49.337623Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,dont worry he's a german white troll,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T14:12:54.130546Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I have ran some calculations. Roughly $4000 to go until $100k.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T16:52:09.424122Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,do something against ur autism brian,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-11T17:07:32.244771Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,is anyone elses deposit taking forever? been 1.5 hours waiting for my deposit,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T17:30:43.590448Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Aenews got clapped on both sides of the market ??,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T17:28:50.944831Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,let the fun begin.see you NO holders at 80c,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T18:59:29.307524Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah def negative for no holders that he posted the chart, but I bought a shitton of shares at 2c so could be well worth",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:38:33.753915Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Well thanks to you I made bit of money there,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T11:39:30.750692Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes like u said brother, but i holding full if he posted chart like a Sunday JAN 19. NO will automaticly go to 99, but s",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T13:19:49.277068Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,YES holders really need a Saylor completion post right about now. It seems like the argument is the funds won't clear in,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-03T02:04:10.714944Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Metamask is quoted me 170+ in eth gas. ????,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:27:49.482594Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,it's on sale right now for 80c,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:09:29.458965Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"if i put $200,000 at market price i will only make $22k profit. that is stupid.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:29:17.039153Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"LOL i sold a bit, im buying back in",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T01:46:12.777505Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,We get it you just found out God isn't real from a Reddit post and now you are posting about it everywhere. It's ok,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T15:52:24.539775Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,told you I would buy back in lower,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T08:56:05.970438Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"hahaha he was No first, then yes, now again NO. he sold in loss every single time.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T06:58:26.767296Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Same posts before he is buying,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:42:46.131739Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,im kinda sad i bought at 57 cents and then 30 seconds later kanye decided to tweet about crypto. i couldve bought at 30 ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:32.827559Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i hope we¡¯ve got some backup to pray,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T12:56:12.923351Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"finger on the button, if that dot chart comes out i'm flipping so fast you'll think i've been holding YES the entire tim",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T23:10:36.834391Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Congrats for all chads who holding NO and dont care about BOW BOW lol,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:38:01.918964Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I¡¯m hearing reports a God candle imminent.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:23:48.462895Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,when will that Saudi Prince dump $2 billion into the BTC market?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T12:32:50.286653Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It went up $500 and yes holders starting stroking it,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T17:27:28.288724Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","why do you guys think it wont get to $105,000 ?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:55:30.306732Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me a few bucks, this is the easiest money ive ever seen but i only have $1.6 rn",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:29:56.053059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,1 nga u have 46 dollars in 2 i promise you if someone bought his acc theyre not worried about a polymarket bet when they,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:29:54.222012Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh no 400 dollars what am i gunna do, not like i made 6.5k buying no at 30 lol",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T19:04:08.270922Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"God damn no holders you are tough. I sold part of my shares to buy back cheaper, btc shot up, no prices basically still ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T17:08:56.421149Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Do you think it's gonna crash?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T22:46:47.478497Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I sold most of my no just keeping some no for now and yeah im gonna buy in on yes soon not yet tho,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:22:09.710313Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't listen to that retard. He probably doesn't even know what the differences between Azure and on-premises AD are. Th,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T18:35:51.509732Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"That was $600 million convertible notes. This time, it's $2 billion. They purchase large sums of BTC within seven days.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:55:18.001984Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It's a gambling website what did you expect,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T16:07:36.800829Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Yep he got a team working for him. All it takes is an insider to be on that team and recommend something like ¡°we shoul,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T05:06:28.335036Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I sold most of my stocks at a loss, but luckily I didn't lose money.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:51:11.182975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,if only u listened to me the last time,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T06:01:48.093437Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,One more time with these assumptions and I'm pointing out you've been betting on a racist party winning the German elect,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T17:50:39.051312Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",im belong with you sir ^^ i bought at 30 and sold 4000 shares at 10. and buy back again at 8,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T10:36:09.690999Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,his exposure would be total of 200 million dollars ??,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T22:06:29.007475Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"all or nothing for me. I bought no, at 08 cents.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T16:10:58.384027Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,For one thing not every bitch has an IG or is a social media addict. Not saying if she has one or not. Even if she did I,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-15T20:20:01.816202Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",let's go let's get it 110k next step,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:57:04.634187Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,$40k is nothing to me bro. but anyway i am 100% sure on monday saylor will announce he bought. i have over $700k in MSTR,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T12:40:18.288171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Don't spend your $0.66 profit all at once,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T03:20:29.824888Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","this is close, does it need to hold 95k for a minute?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T03:16:53.653833Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I sold all my coins and then bought back because i said aint no way im quitting polymarket with a negative portfolio,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-12-01T01:01:25.159085Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",HOW COME MARKET HAS NOT CLOSED,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T14:45:36.903523Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are absolutely correct. If Bullishonsole hadn't bought $2,000+ yesterday, I would still be holding my 6K+ no shares.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:04:46.825613Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me $1, i wanna buy some no rq but got nothing",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T13:47:03.523944Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",now it starts to get intresting,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:33:56.462135Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",See you all tomorrow. Aint envying the 95k noers,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:17:38.653342Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought more at 15c like a chad broski,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:25:39.896902Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",I swear it was like 10 bucks away,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:12:45.773109Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"car with the psyop as usual, thats more certain to happen than the sun to rise let alone saylor to buy",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T17:51:07.020798Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I withdraw when I have taken $135,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T19:37:23.539481Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I really wanna see how mstr will do this week,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:08:13.382482Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes please dont sell, buy more NO and fill my $40,000 order.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:38:32.991762Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"it's over, all no holders sold. I sold jk",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-21T12:05:42.070541Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Everyone was hoping for over 10k.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T16:19:49.461417Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"if NO holders were insiders, why are they not buying cheap NO? when they were ready to buy at 50c. wake up, only insider",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:03:58.694187Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He has -$2,663.32. Fucking degenerate",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:25:33.951304Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,5% yes now???? Insiders are going to launch a few minutes before time ends. I knew it.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:18:07.056027Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hold the line! We hit $99.5K a few days ago, but we¡¯re still holding strong. There¡¯s strong resistance at $99.5K. it w",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:56:24.027561Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"thats his thing he does before he releases albums, he is just getting attention, he wont and inturn im betting money on ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:54:36.938261Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I bought some Yes for the lols, Imagine if bowbow gets out at 12c at massive loss and we hit 100k??",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T06:11:46.488745Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Well, you couldn't because it was a terrible bet, and went against all statistical evidence you seem to love so much. It",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T22:50:52.085976Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",the rise is definitely pointing towards some correlation to trump being elected,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:34:35.842507Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I know, that's why I relate to you and feel concerned for anger both ways.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T01:44:01.469642Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? NO's are still cheap get'em while you can!,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:51:00.255379Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oooh, you make $40 per hour so impressive, hahah loser",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:51:00.255379Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oooh, you make $40 per hour so impressive, hahah loser",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:30:15.802263Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","only gamble what youre willing to lose, i only put $15 in for fun on this position just cause of the crazy odds",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:21:58.354094Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I mostly diamond handed, but I sold a bit too much at 33cish",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T17:29:56.131055Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024 ? I buyed no. Will Bitcoin hit $100k in Nov ? I buyed yes.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:54:54.912064Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i dont wanna say cuzz then everyone will sell YES and buy NO and then I wont get filled. so far i only have $7k position,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:35:53.530736Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Its not about the money but rather the thought process behind it. You naively sold your no position and changed it to ye,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T21:06:32.331499Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",@Pedro999 broke af betting against the market RETARD,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T19:21:33.189303Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,if i was doing that would i have bought YES at 45c? make it make sense,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T21:05:06.708766Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"Not only that I went to the TOP ""Yes"" and he lost the same bet July 1-7",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:53:32.053481Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Cooked how? ""Old Wise Man""? He bought 15k shares at 1c and 3c and sold them at 80c.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T22:06:33.438357Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,obviously i dont know jack shit and time decay is not in yes favor but i think timing the market is doable,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-24T22:10:07.951052Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Hey man, all I'm saying is, you should take your $8k while you can cause I think with how crypto is performing this is g",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-07T20:41:53.018761Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Polymarket has pulled me back in again, here goes 24 nights of watching the charts",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T04:49:22.101255Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Lol guys haven¡¯t you see just difference between chance % and price? They got like $0.01 on each side. 16% for yes and ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T04:25:11.776544Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I mean the only reason to buy YES right now is to dump on someone for pennies more than you paid. I'm not bag holding t,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:49:41.874851Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@MiyamotoMusashi is a -$2,626.76 weeabo.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:36:38.191723Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yeah, he seemed less angry last week. Like things were looking up a bit.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-08T22:02:39.635793Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,looks to me that someone/something bought around $580m using Coinbase Prime brokerage right after MSTR's preferreds comp,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-07T12:07:13.246709Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,you should've had stayed in no side Bro,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:07:20.000707Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"If you are thinking it will hit 100k today, buy at MUCH better odds at https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-100000",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-26T17:13:15.225712Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I wasn't tryna be toxic bruh im literally on the same bets.,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T03:54:11.745845Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"my prediction: 10 ema will now cross 20 ema(4h chart), then upmove can continue and soon 100k. all these loudmouth no sa",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T19:27:26.736594Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Almost there, less than $500 to go.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T08:54:30.763535Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow, can you lend me a quick half a million so I can vote no and make a quick $10K?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T06:31:17.553602Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Wow, could've 10x if you bought No",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T01:11:59.526404Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"You absolute menace, enjoy those $30,064.75!!! Props to you. PROPS TO ALL NO HOLDERS, we all got fucking scared today, a",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:41:41.880032Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","The is risk to reward is crazy, that¡¯s why I bought in",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T23:34:16.999852Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wait a minute, it's 3:30 PM In LA right now, it's not even dark",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T14:12:07.158732Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"what do you mean, it hedged perfectly. Down $5k here, up $5k over there.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T20:46:20.237975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can't wait for the UMA disputes when some coin is launched by the scammers using ye's account .... popcorn ready,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-25T01:33:53.055727Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",i remember when bitcoins costed like couple of bucks,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T15:23:57.684694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"gg to the diamond hands, i sold the top. max pain",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:57:20.581685Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,F3UCK Y'3LL 'YES' N3GGAS..... GIVING ME ALL THE STRESS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.... ILL DESTORY YOU GUYS 1 DOLLAR AT A TIME,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T07:03:22.991805Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,arbitraging and selling put options and farming premium,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T04:07:30.051947Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",i keep getting cooked im betting on these walls holding and bitcoin acts like they dont exist,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T08:38:25.662008Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this will be the biggest rekt of month,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:31:10.317936Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh guys, i missed it, i wanted to buy all in YES, crap... can smb tip me i would buy YES all IN",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-18T18:16:39.272121Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,Dang if i knew tips was such a paperhand I would've put up lower limit orders,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:45:42.387292Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye is dropping 11:59PM ET on Friday, and we'll make it all back",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T13:00:17.141408Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol my theory was correct. the whole idea that he only post on holiday was filmsy. his team was just chilling out on jan,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T03:18:08.099213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wow, a $12M volume trader who still holds positions that went to absolute zero. True market wizardry at work!",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:53:15.484146Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wall order is of ERASMAS, he started buying.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:22:09.710313Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't listen to that retard. He probably doesn't even know what the differences between Azure and on-premises AD are. Th,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:47:50.656902Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:25:02.877735Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,aenews i'm starting to get worried about you. you've lost your magic touch. you used to be so so good at this but these ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:46:20.920417Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,insiders + HODL = a clear NO. don't know why the price is not 90c already for NO.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-24T01:37:47.913471Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,At the time of my last reply it was 55 dollars *,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:05:16.393716Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"how about 47c for $200,000 USDC?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T14:14:01.906118Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,because the news site itself is pure shit worth nothing,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:11:13.959747Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"The way I see it is a 50x return. First scenario is; he actually buys and I lose $100 (boo-hoo), second scenario is; he ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-30T05:00:46.155512Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"u didn't lose it. check ur wallet, it must be there",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T06:49:18.432713Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"unfortunately, I lost it everything ((( please ,who can tip me",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:07:45.307353Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,omfgawd i can post comments again,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T23:33:26.710856Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,he bought today but when will he announce,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-13T12:23:51.256632Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",is this here working like a future/options trade would at a cex?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T00:04:05.284574Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Wtf are you talking about 5 minute new daily candle? Please explain. It reached a high point of $98.6K in the past 24 ho,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:16:52.471218Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,unless big daddy BlackRock comes around the corner with a check over $200M USD it might be over,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:39:11.505436Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i sold 69k of my no shares until end of year, kind of regret it now",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:04:50.613529Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can we no holders crowdfund and send some funny smelling bitches to Kanye's villa right now?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T12:40:18.288171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Don't spend your $0.66 profit all at once,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T14:10:22.798881Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","sure they do,losers wanna lose",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:42:24.748817Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye is a Nazi scum pu55y-ass bitch nigga.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-03T18:08:53.471317Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,lol if ppl read their investor filings they would have known they're not buying from yesterday. thats why i bought a lot,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:40:25.270776Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"surely gimmi a $1 or too to buy some more yes, it easy money but i only got 1.6",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:21:49.315582Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"I AM BUYING ANOTHER 80,000 YES SHARES AT $0.39. FILL ME GUYS. I am not gonna increase my price.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T06:30:46.251958Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"you can ask Chatgpt this quuestion ""Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? answer Yes or No"" chatgpt will answer no, if yo",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T12:17:40.232981Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,How do you know if someone is an insider?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T19:26:54.086372Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,sniffingground is insider he go all in NO,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-18T15:26:23.612796Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"That would make me bullish on ""YES"" here https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-in-2025?tid=1744989954875",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:08:40.690399Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,YOU COULD HAVE AN INFINITE AMOUNT OF MONEY AND SHE WOULD STILL BE WORTH MORE,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-15T17:43:00.681642Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,take pls credit from bank pls to play big atleast,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:07:51.142016Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nah Kamala IQ is like 140. Trump 120, he's a smart boy but no match for Queen Kambullah Whorris. No disagreement with Ka",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:54:02.573805Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is a market lasting more than a month. Why do you think that something will change in 4 days?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-24T20:24:38.982112Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I agree. I hold BTC but bought No as a hedge,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T03:37:50.079373Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,I told myself I wouldn't do this market again.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T02:22:57.920719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you bet 10 on current avg price 0.3cents you'll get 3333.33 shares and if yes is the outcome you get extra $3323.33. ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-01-31T22:13:41.843505Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",its not over YET! btc mega candle inc,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T08:21:46.549681Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Damn bro sorry to hear that, I'm sure you will recover all the losses soon, best of luck.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:30:42.356611Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Come on bro only making 30 dollars ??,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T15:10:16.235478Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Market crashing left and right. I¡¯m so glad I sold my eth so I could bet on this market. I¡¯m a genius,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T14:31:23.578837Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye West, after disclosing he was offered $2 million to launch a token, asks to speak with Coinbase CEO 'concerning cr",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T04:23:26.240198Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I put mine at 43c but unfortunately I bought at 61c. Not getting out of this unscathed,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-21T19:09:40.762336Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bitcoin has never put +40% monthly candle since 2017. this time is not different,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T03:33:01.492761Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,They have a couple hundred M$ in cash and Saylor already posted his chart on X. The text in the tweet doesnt hint at hod,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-26T16:55:57.180219Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Are you will losing more 63 k bro,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T15:14:45.596909Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Fat finger order haha realised it bit late that I sold instead of buy,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T11:19:06.650441Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,He¡¯s supposed to get his $980M on Tuesday why would he buy on Monday. I hope that this logic works out,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-23T22:07:27.045582Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","bitcoin will reach all time high tomorrow, thank me later ??",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:35:31.440425Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SUDDENLY HAVE A STRONG STRONG FEELING THERE WON'T BE ANY MORE TWEETS FROM KANYE. THEN YOU'LL HEAR NEWS REPORTS HE OD O,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T19:27:56.975762Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","super rare ""Skibidi Sigma Crown"" pattern just appeared meaning btc will go to $104,999 before falling to $50,000.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-01-31T21:47:52.356781Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,"Monday Apr 29, 2024 tweet, the Monday before May earnings release: ""Michael Saylor @saylor Apr 29, 2024 In April, @Micr",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T17:51:19.045341Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"I assume the completion post will come after market ends within like 5 minutes, isn't that how it normally goes?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T08:31:19.022918Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"""Conclusion: While some market analysts and enthusiasts are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching or exceeding the $100,000 ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:10:39.363421Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Is @bugoutmode an insider? He bought $1,016 worth of 'Yes' 10 minutes ago. His account was created June 2023. This is hi",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:55:13.206997Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Didn¡¯t you see the way mstr was in minus ?? It was him selling his mstr shares heavily to buy big number of BTC,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T19:37:48.289686Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",someone lend me $50k so I can buy No $95k,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-23T20:52:26.884922Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,there has only been two time that this exact thing happen. Every other holiday he didn't post graph on Sunday so we all ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:22:26.814923Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Where do you think the $15m grant for spreading LGBTQ awareness among Cambodian youth went to,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:46:09.328681Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Okay, Okay, Okay, I need the price to go up. I can't take this anymore. Everyday I'm checking the price and it's dipping",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T14:23:55.987398Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Saylor is a scammer, we all know it",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T11:21:17.465586Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",We might be looking at a dump down to $60k here,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T14:31:01.840185Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",finally it was good value to buy yes near 90k,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T14:01:55.306928Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","I buy at 7 cent, how big ball i have",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T11:37:15.941314Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Why did you decide to sell your no just curious,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T16:22:43.422868Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",what people dont realize is that its the YES voters that are the ones who have to sweat. they have to continuously break,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:13:55.512253Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Rough calculation. We are about $3600(4%) away from 100k, in crypto you know 4% is nothing lol",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T04:41:12.981425Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this was my first bet on PolyMarket and i went small but a wins a win,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T15:03:08.122172Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,imma choose to believe the londoninsider website. Gl everyone else,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:22:03.434262Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,I have never seen a Car hater with a positive PNL,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T13:11:37.380075Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it will hit 100k and muh precious and famous bowbow will be rich rich RICH,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-12T18:14:23.757671Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",looks like a casual drop to pump even higher to me i recommend you selling,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T01:58:17.050327Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I will give you cleo3 pics if you tip me and send disc,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T12:43:48.732805Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Btc will be at 97000 at the end of november folks,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T08:33:02.192241Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can someone donate me 10 bucks i had my last 50 bucks and i want to put more on no,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:32:59.487602Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,I think there's a reason for the huge liquidity,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T08:20:14.541373Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin has seen many fakeouts at $50k and $20k, there¡¯s a ton of psychological resistance at $99,999 - people would be",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T18:57:01.646844Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,every mstr convert in 2024 was greenshoed and oversubscribed beyond the green shoe by an average of 27%. Expect close to,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:15:38.780569Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I just found another article on CoinPedia posted by an Indian guy... He was paid $1,500 to post a press release saying t",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T23:59:40.821192Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Exactly 7 Days ago, Kanye started tweeting about the Coin in the Evening around this time, we shall see",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:34:58.339618Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We've gone from the manic phase to the depression phase, it seems.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:05:21.046319Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The YZY token was initially set to go for sale on Yeezy's website on Thursday at 6:00 p.m., but the launch was delayed t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T16:54:16.240033Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Whales are going to dispute and win. Nice cash day for Y.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:35:31.854994Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought his account and i'm gonna fake a coin launch. Why is Yes so low?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:46:41.599224Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I lost $4 on this market, very sad but now Im outta here. Enjoy refreshing twitter guys!",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:38:11.954141Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We get the opportunity to short a scam pump to $0, what a gift",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:03:37.174707Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","so glad i bought more at 94.9k, easiest 2x ever",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T15:15:03.009529Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,kimchi what are you doing? buying at 99 selling at 93?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T13:58:07.481466Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bro, I really hope you won't lose your main $100k in 2024 bet",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:48:00.463858Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T02:19:16.741144Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,whates getting scammed on the way up and then on the way down,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:21:50.221348Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Love seeing top NO holders down $50-100k dont gamble on YE,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:32:16.716588Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Would risking a loss of another $300-400 matter to you in order to potentially gain $10,000? Only you can answer that.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:49:50.834871Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If muh precious bullishonsol lawst a brand new BMW M5 series then what the f did Zyn lose?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-01-31T21:55:18.453303Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,pat please get yourself together you can't get mad at me for calling you misinformed and not broke due to luck a day or ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:33:52.243414Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Your $8 will shake the markets up,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T02:20:32.552039Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,if you bet $10 on what and at what price?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-29T03:45:54.090528Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","BTC only reach 110K if fed reduce rate , otherwise flash crash is most probally hedge",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T17:34:16.756449Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",bro should not make finincial desicions,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T11:12:56.906445Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Why is there a 20,000 shares limit order for selling yes for 50 cents?? That¡¯s pretty scary",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T08:54:38.168642Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,No holders come up with all kinds of reasoning just to avoid saving themselves the last 5 bucks. Absolutely wild reading,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:03:13.659963Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,would have never said so... nigga,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T12:58:26.348157Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"To build on this point, it¡¯s also important to note that in all previous Strategy BTC purchases, Michael Saylor or the ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T05:54:10.851462Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm still here too, look at my profile history. I bought in days ago",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T11:18:45.923148Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We may have lost this battle, but we haven't lost the war yet.)",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T10:10:18.847929Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,wait bowbow was actually talking in chat?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:49:41.874851Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@MiyamotoMusashi is a -$2,626.76 weeabo.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:59:59.124295Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,See you degens in the march 7 market,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T09:23:09.882902Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Tick tock, on the clock, but the party don't stop, no oh whoa whoa oh, oh whoa whoa oh",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T03:28:40.652673Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,what is the theory for his website being on the monday? Is this not just based on the ZY in yeezy looking like 24? I've ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:16:31.550901Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"looking at priceaction it might actually happen, such a crazy day",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:32:50.206495Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I took a 4000$ loss on polymarket yesterday i went almost all in on this trade to make back my losses hopefully it goes ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T07:52:23.957209Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"???? ALERT ALERT ???? @MiyamotoMusashi is -$2,104.27",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-20T17:59:24.697558Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","If it's going to hit $110k, just do it right now, please take me out of my misery. Grape me and get it over now. Stop te",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T12:13:07.240118Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,¡° IM TOO RICH TO DO ANYTHING ELSE COINS PREY ON THE FANS WITH HYPE¡± he¡¯s aware he¡¯d be scamming his fans lol,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T14:48:30.756918Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",95k is not a problem. 100k will be harder but the narrative of hitting 100k must be reached for a good storyline and lur,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T22:30:13.194074Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i've been browsing his page for over 3 hours now lol,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-14T14:50:03.942053Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","It was a rough day for me yesterday, doc. And it isn't a career, more like an addiction",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T13:36:44.106881Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,So glad to see Fujin turn around bratha,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:12:32.841908Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Would you use the $200,000 to buy a new home?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T06:10:34.678214Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is Kanye you're talking about.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T11:06:04.867384Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Will the finsl payout be the same if i hold ?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T14:02:46.406044Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",why are you against your own bets lol,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:56:49.829726Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow just bought into november 29th market. Yes is at such good odds it will 5x in a matter of minutes,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:37:36.768973Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BowBow no matter if u win or loose.. Gotta give to u for those Titan sized balls..,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T14:36:24.163888Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,That¡¯s why I bought more :) Just in case he doesn¡¯t,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T03:18:08.099213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wow, a $12M volume trader who still holds positions that went to absolute zero. True market wizardry at work!",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:28:27.778352Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me a $1 so i can buy a few more, this is easy money rn",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T03:44:11.194277Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,buddy you've got like a 100 dollar stake,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:06:01.128482Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Tbh bro I just doubt this number one no holder better you sell it now .. why risk for 50-60 dollars more,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T14:08:15.737811Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How you regards holding yes are doing?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:54:36.409332Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We're pricing in no tweets, If he tweets because he's Kanye then they can just market buy and eager Nos will capitulate",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T16:36:15.366714Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yeah, no doubt Bitcoin will reach 100.000 dollars. I mean, have you seen the order book of btc?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-02-03T12:52:47.879679Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,you might win this win time but on the long the guy is buying everything i have bought the no in the past and i have los,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T04:12:11.132889Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"me, i'll take my chances. yes it was supposed to launched earlier only, and getting delayed. but still a real good chanc",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:28:51.678881Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,By my calculations we are about $2k from $100k,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:24:32.665946Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woofwoof9 bought 21,329 Yes at 46.9c ($10,000) The donation will go towards a good cause my friend.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T21:36:33.168468Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i sold yes, i lost money, but now im in the win side",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-04T04:44:15.238727Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Degen is crazy put 100 k on insiders market,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-03T11:01:52.074587Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Although I bought it, I think there are many insiders on the other side. There are also many people who only registered ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T02:22:57.920719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you bet 10 on current avg price 0.3cents you'll get 3333.33 shares and if yes is the outcome you get extra $3323.33. ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T13:38:41.281198Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,dont let the ye'haters win! keep buying the yes!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T05:30:23.138553Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"ya, i decided to keep quiet. why to take unnecessory critisim and abuses",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:30:40.767214Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"$15,136,263 Vol. So proud of this community",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T15:33:26.021002Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"i have insider knowledge, he will be launching his coin within a week.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:11:42.698654Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""@cleo3 can i sleep with you too please"" - desperate schizokanye",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:17:38.170917Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you seem very angry about the $20 your going to lose today, so I assume you aren't doing too well financially lmao",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T06:18:16.771286Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"If dalailama and nunchak are indeed insiders, they will get reported to SEC if they win this lol, too much risk for them",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T21:37:25.393527Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""I don't need your pus*y b*tch; I'm on my own d*ck."" - Kanye West",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T15:52:40.667209Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Says the guy with minus $1200 profit ??,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T09:17:47.610764Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thanks BowBow for holding the yes holders % up,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:32:56.378983Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,finally something we can agree on,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:17:45.793027Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bro fr ill take $1 tip to bet on No, i fr only got $4 rn and its all on NO baby",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T14:47:11.687367Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29 IS LITERALLY AT 72% NO, YALL NO IS STILL CHEAP ON THIS LMAO",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T20:44:19.092037Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","yes, quite a good buying opporunity of NO shares as well",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T15:27:02.622578Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,like nobody knows that Kanye is Ye,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T13:49:55.327097Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,We should we thankful that we have the opportunity to buy 1 dollar for 24 cents,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-08T06:42:26.916058Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","What happened, down so much in one day?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:09:00.853102Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine Kanye just drops the ticker with 5 minutes left,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:44:02.110895Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"First thing i saw, wanted something different than default colors",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-04T13:14:30.194414Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,saylor is worth 10 bil dorsnt care about insiders ¡­,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T03:01:52.032299Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think anyone with $500k to throw on a bet knows people for sure.. a low probability as well,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T11:00:48.607521Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,$41.41 is what you need to break 6c,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T00:04:54.500897Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Please I beg you, this time is the last one, no more gambling, I promise. Just put me breakeven please lord. I promise n",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:47:30.085557Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys I sold all my YES and bought NO because I saw this: Specifically, MicroStrategy will announce details of its latest",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T09:10:29.252697Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yes true, when I bought some large chunks it was cheap around 28c for sure. Now it¡¯s not cheap anymore for the risk one",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:45:01.790892Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You are actually just chilling,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T09:34:59.795501Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"At the time of this writing, according to the share button, BowBow will win $1,999,999.91, not $2 million.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:27:46.482499Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You guys are celebrating but most volatility occurs before markets close right,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:10:27.927568Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,All this makes me more confident in NO,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T12:25:43.662269Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,He won't break the weekly steak,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-24T12:56:53.970009Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,I sold for cheap but I fine with that should have sold yesterday for 98c,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T05:27:57.019133Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I sold my no In profit at 70c day before yesterday.. taking bet on yes let¡¯s see .,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T12:26:37.710472Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,I'll also be digging around LondonInsider for a bit--I suspect they've been retroactively changing their reports.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T00:10:48.555149Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your NO guys i will be happy to get it for $0.25,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..89aa1f569232f4129b7f0c6ad816f0e056408643 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,301 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +512662,2024-11-11T18:04:45.901161Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Just a small correction to shake over leveraged longs... and back to 90K,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T07:17:04.052321Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Guys remember, if someone actually publishes coin from his account, he will later claim he was hacked, so just sell duri",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:59.559189Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your no's before it's too late. I am here for the people,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T23:02:09.117757Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"down $5k in this market but up by more in a related market, GuyWhoFcks was questioning the quality of the hedged bet, i ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T19:07:51.324295Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bruh he literally said he¡¯s not doing a coin,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:46:03.140919Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,then go to this market and 5x ur money https://polymarket.com/event/did-kanye-sell-his-twitter-account?tid=1740278496346,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-14T15:47:33.337312Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Bitcoin is still over extended. It was up 40% in a week. You really expect it to do another 40%? We are going sideways f,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T18:32:09.863188Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"you make a fair point, history shows a 100% record for green shoe and 100% record for even more capital than that. I'm g",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T18:44:38.534693Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow you should sell at 40, you can get $250,000, there is no liquidity on holidays",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-01-31T22:53:16.022098Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,You mean your broker took your money today,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:30:01.971442Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nice one, you bought at the right time and saw the vision",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:12:31.652031Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"I know you lost several thousand, but why not put $100-200 more into a NO. If it lands you get some money back, if yes y",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-04T14:53:49.337623Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,dont worry he's a german white troll,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T14:12:54.130546Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I have ran some calculations. Roughly $4000 to go until $100k.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T16:52:09.424122Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,do something against ur autism brian,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-11T17:07:32.244771Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,is anyone elses deposit taking forever? been 1.5 hours waiting for my deposit,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T17:30:43.590448Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Aenews got clapped on both sides of the market ??,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T17:28:50.944831Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,let the fun begin.see you NO holders at 80c,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T18:59:29.307524Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah def negative for no holders that he posted the chart, but I bought a shitton of shares at 2c so could be well worth",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:38:33.753915Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Well thanks to you I made bit of money there,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T11:39:30.750692Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes like u said brother, but i holding full if he posted chart like a Sunday JAN 19. NO will automaticly go to 99, but s",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T13:19:49.277068Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,YES holders really need a Saylor completion post right about now. It seems like the argument is the funds won't clear in,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-03T02:04:10.714944Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Metamask is quoted me 170+ in eth gas. ????,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:27:49.482594Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,it's on sale right now for 80c,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:09:29.458965Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"if i put $200,000 at market price i will only make $22k profit. that is stupid.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:29:17.039153Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"LOL i sold a bit, im buying back in",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T01:46:12.777505Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,We get it you just found out God isn't real from a Reddit post and now you are posting about it everywhere. It's ok,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T15:52:24.539775Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,told you I would buy back in lower,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T08:56:05.970438Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"hahaha he was No first, then yes, now again NO. he sold in loss every single time.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T06:58:26.767296Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Same posts before he is buying,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:42:46.131739Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,im kinda sad i bought at 57 cents and then 30 seconds later kanye decided to tweet about crypto. i couldve bought at 30 ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:32.827559Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i hope we¡¯ve got some backup to pray,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T12:56:12.923351Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"finger on the button, if that dot chart comes out i'm flipping so fast you'll think i've been holding YES the entire tim",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T23:10:36.834391Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Congrats for all chads who holding NO and dont care about BOW BOW lol,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:38:01.918964Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I¡¯m hearing reports a God candle imminent.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:23:48.462895Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,when will that Saudi Prince dump $2 billion into the BTC market?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T12:32:50.286653Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It went up $500 and yes holders starting stroking it,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T17:27:28.288724Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","why do you guys think it wont get to $105,000 ?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:55:30.306732Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me a few bucks, this is the easiest money ive ever seen but i only have $1.6 rn",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:29:56.053059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,1 nga u have 46 dollars in 2 i promise you if someone bought his acc theyre not worried about a polymarket bet when they,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:29:54.222012Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh no 400 dollars what am i gunna do, not like i made 6.5k buying no at 30 lol",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T19:04:08.270922Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"God damn no holders you are tough. I sold part of my shares to buy back cheaper, btc shot up, no prices basically still ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T17:08:56.421149Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Do you think it's gonna crash?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T22:46:47.478497Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I sold most of my no just keeping some no for now and yeah im gonna buy in on yes soon not yet tho,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:22:09.710313Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't listen to that retard. He probably doesn't even know what the differences between Azure and on-premises AD are. Th,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T18:35:51.509732Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"That was $600 million convertible notes. This time, it's $2 billion. They purchase large sums of BTC within seven days.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:55:18.001984Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It's a gambling website what did you expect,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T16:07:36.800829Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Yep he got a team working for him. All it takes is an insider to be on that team and recommend something like ¡°we shoul,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T05:06:28.335036Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I sold most of my stocks at a loss, but luckily I didn't lose money.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:51:11.182975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,if only u listened to me the last time,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T06:01:48.093437Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,One more time with these assumptions and I'm pointing out you've been betting on a racist party winning the German elect,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T17:50:39.051312Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",im belong with you sir ^^ i bought at 30 and sold 4000 shares at 10. and buy back again at 8,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T10:36:09.690999Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,his exposure would be total of 200 million dollars ??,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T22:06:29.007475Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"all or nothing for me. I bought no, at 08 cents.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T16:10:58.384027Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,For one thing not every bitch has an IG or is a social media addict. Not saying if she has one or not. Even if she did I,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-15T20:20:01.816202Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",let's go let's get it 110k next step,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:57:04.634187Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,$40k is nothing to me bro. but anyway i am 100% sure on monday saylor will announce he bought. i have over $700k in MSTR,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T12:40:18.288171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Don't spend your $0.66 profit all at once,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T03:20:29.824888Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","this is close, does it need to hold 95k for a minute?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T03:16:53.653833Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I sold all my coins and then bought back because i said aint no way im quitting polymarket with a negative portfolio,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-12-01T01:01:25.159085Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",HOW COME MARKET HAS NOT CLOSED,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T14:45:36.903523Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are absolutely correct. If Bullishonsole hadn't bought $2,000+ yesterday, I would still be holding my 6K+ no shares.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:04:46.825613Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me $1, i wanna buy some no rq but got nothing",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T13:47:03.523944Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",now it starts to get intresting,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:33:56.462135Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",See you all tomorrow. Aint envying the 95k noers,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:17:38.653342Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought more at 15c like a chad broski,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:25:39.896902Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",I swear it was like 10 bucks away,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:12:45.773109Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"car with the psyop as usual, thats more certain to happen than the sun to rise let alone saylor to buy",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T17:51:07.020798Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I withdraw when I have taken $135,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T19:37:23.539481Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I really wanna see how mstr will do this week,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:08:13.382482Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes please dont sell, buy more NO and fill my $40,000 order.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:38:32.991762Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"it's over, all no holders sold. I sold jk",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-21T12:05:42.070541Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Everyone was hoping for over 10k.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T16:19:49.461417Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"if NO holders were insiders, why are they not buying cheap NO? when they were ready to buy at 50c. wake up, only insider",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:03:58.694187Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He has -$2,663.32. Fucking degenerate",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:25:33.951304Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,5% yes now???? Insiders are going to launch a few minutes before time ends. I knew it.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:18:07.056027Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hold the line! We hit $99.5K a few days ago, but we¡¯re still holding strong. There¡¯s strong resistance at $99.5K. it w",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:56:24.027561Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"thats his thing he does before he releases albums, he is just getting attention, he wont and inturn im betting money on ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:54:36.938261Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I bought some Yes for the lols, Imagine if bowbow gets out at 12c at massive loss and we hit 100k??",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T06:11:46.488745Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Well, you couldn't because it was a terrible bet, and went against all statistical evidence you seem to love so much. It",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T22:50:52.085976Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",the rise is definitely pointing towards some correlation to trump being elected,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:34:35.842507Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I know, that's why I relate to you and feel concerned for anger both ways.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T01:44:01.469642Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? NO's are still cheap get'em while you can!,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:51:00.255379Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oooh, you make $40 per hour so impressive, hahah loser",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:51:00.255379Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oooh, you make $40 per hour so impressive, hahah loser",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:30:15.802263Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","only gamble what youre willing to lose, i only put $15 in for fun on this position just cause of the crazy odds",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:21:58.354094Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I mostly diamond handed, but I sold a bit too much at 33cish",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T17:29:56.131055Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024 ? I buyed no. Will Bitcoin hit $100k in Nov ? I buyed yes.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:54:54.912064Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i dont wanna say cuzz then everyone will sell YES and buy NO and then I wont get filled. so far i only have $7k position,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:35:53.530736Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Its not about the money but rather the thought process behind it. You naively sold your no position and changed it to ye,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T21:06:32.331499Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",@Pedro999 broke af betting against the market RETARD,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T19:21:33.189303Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,if i was doing that would i have bought YES at 45c? make it make sense,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T21:05:06.708766Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"Not only that I went to the TOP ""Yes"" and he lost the same bet July 1-7",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:53:32.053481Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Cooked how? ""Old Wise Man""? He bought 15k shares at 1c and 3c and sold them at 80c.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T22:06:33.438357Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,obviously i dont know jack shit and time decay is not in yes favor but i think timing the market is doable,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-24T22:10:07.951052Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Hey man, all I'm saying is, you should take your $8k while you can cause I think with how crypto is performing this is g",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-07T20:41:53.018761Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Polymarket has pulled me back in again, here goes 24 nights of watching the charts",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T04:49:22.101255Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Lol guys haven¡¯t you see just difference between chance % and price? They got like $0.01 on each side. 16% for yes and ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T04:25:11.776544Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I mean the only reason to buy YES right now is to dump on someone for pennies more than you paid. I'm not bag holding t,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:49:41.874851Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@MiyamotoMusashi is a -$2,626.76 weeabo.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:36:38.191723Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yeah, he seemed less angry last week. Like things were looking up a bit.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-08T22:02:39.635793Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,looks to me that someone/something bought around $580m using Coinbase Prime brokerage right after MSTR's preferreds comp,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-07T12:07:13.246709Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,you should've had stayed in no side Bro,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:07:20.000707Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"If you are thinking it will hit 100k today, buy at MUCH better odds at https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-100000",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-26T17:13:15.225712Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I wasn't tryna be toxic bruh im literally on the same bets.,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T03:54:11.745845Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"my prediction: 10 ema will now cross 20 ema(4h chart), then upmove can continue and soon 100k. all these loudmouth no sa",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T19:27:26.736594Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Almost there, less than $500 to go.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T08:54:30.763535Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow, can you lend me a quick half a million so I can vote no and make a quick $10K?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T06:31:17.553602Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Wow, could've 10x if you bought No",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T01:11:59.526404Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"You absolute menace, enjoy those $30,064.75!!! Props to you. PROPS TO ALL NO HOLDERS, we all got fucking scared today, a",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:41:41.880032Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","The is risk to reward is crazy, that¡¯s why I bought in",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T23:34:16.999852Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wait a minute, it's 3:30 PM In LA right now, it's not even dark",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T14:12:07.158732Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"what do you mean, it hedged perfectly. Down $5k here, up $5k over there.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T20:46:20.237975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can't wait for the UMA disputes when some coin is launched by the scammers using ye's account .... popcorn ready,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-25T01:33:53.055727Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",i remember when bitcoins costed like couple of bucks,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T15:23:57.684694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"gg to the diamond hands, i sold the top. max pain",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:57:20.581685Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,F3UCK Y'3LL 'YES' N3GGAS..... GIVING ME ALL THE STRESS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.... ILL DESTORY YOU GUYS 1 DOLLAR AT A TIME,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T07:03:22.991805Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,arbitraging and selling put options and farming premium,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T04:07:30.051947Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",i keep getting cooked im betting on these walls holding and bitcoin acts like they dont exist,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T08:38:25.662008Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this will be the biggest rekt of month,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:31:10.317936Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh guys, i missed it, i wanted to buy all in YES, crap... can smb tip me i would buy YES all IN",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-18T18:16:39.272121Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,Dang if i knew tips was such a paperhand I would've put up lower limit orders,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:45:42.387292Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye is dropping 11:59PM ET on Friday, and we'll make it all back",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T13:00:17.141408Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol my theory was correct. the whole idea that he only post on holiday was filmsy. his team was just chilling out on jan,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T03:18:08.099213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wow, a $12M volume trader who still holds positions that went to absolute zero. True market wizardry at work!",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:53:15.484146Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wall order is of ERASMAS, he started buying.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:22:09.710313Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't listen to that retard. He probably doesn't even know what the differences between Azure and on-premises AD are. Th,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:47:50.656902Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:25:02.877735Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,aenews i'm starting to get worried about you. you've lost your magic touch. you used to be so so good at this but these ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:46:20.920417Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,insiders + HODL = a clear NO. don't know why the price is not 90c already for NO.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-24T01:37:47.913471Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,At the time of my last reply it was 55 dollars *,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:05:16.393716Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"how about 47c for $200,000 USDC?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T14:14:01.906118Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,because the news site itself is pure shit worth nothing,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:11:13.959747Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"The way I see it is a 50x return. First scenario is; he actually buys and I lose $100 (boo-hoo), second scenario is; he ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-30T05:00:46.155512Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"u didn't lose it. check ur wallet, it must be there",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T06:49:18.432713Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"unfortunately, I lost it everything ((( please ,who can tip me",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:07:45.307353Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,omfgawd i can post comments again,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T23:33:26.710856Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,he bought today but when will he announce,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-13T12:23:51.256632Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",is this here working like a future/options trade would at a cex?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T00:04:05.284574Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Wtf are you talking about 5 minute new daily candle? Please explain. It reached a high point of $98.6K in the past 24 ho,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:16:52.471218Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,unless big daddy BlackRock comes around the corner with a check over $200M USD it might be over,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:39:11.505436Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i sold 69k of my no shares until end of year, kind of regret it now",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:04:50.613529Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can we no holders crowdfund and send some funny smelling bitches to Kanye's villa right now?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T12:40:18.288171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Don't spend your $0.66 profit all at once,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T14:10:22.798881Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","sure they do,losers wanna lose",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:42:24.748817Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye is a Nazi scum pu55y-ass bitch nigga.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-03T18:08:53.471317Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,lol if ppl read their investor filings they would have known they're not buying from yesterday. thats why i bought a lot,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:40:25.270776Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"surely gimmi a $1 or too to buy some more yes, it easy money but i only got 1.6",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:21:49.315582Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"I AM BUYING ANOTHER 80,000 YES SHARES AT $0.39. FILL ME GUYS. I am not gonna increase my price.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T06:30:46.251958Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"you can ask Chatgpt this quuestion ""Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? answer Yes or No"" chatgpt will answer no, if yo",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T12:17:40.232981Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,How do you know if someone is an insider?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T19:26:54.086372Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,sniffingground is insider he go all in NO,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-18T15:26:23.612796Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"That would make me bullish on ""YES"" here https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-in-2025?tid=1744989954875",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:08:40.690399Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,YOU COULD HAVE AN INFINITE AMOUNT OF MONEY AND SHE WOULD STILL BE WORTH MORE,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-15T17:43:00.681642Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,take pls credit from bank pls to play big atleast,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:07:51.142016Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nah Kamala IQ is like 140. Trump 120, he's a smart boy but no match for Queen Kambullah Whorris. No disagreement with Ka",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:54:02.573805Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is a market lasting more than a month. Why do you think that something will change in 4 days?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-24T20:24:38.982112Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I agree. I hold BTC but bought No as a hedge,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T03:37:50.079373Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,I told myself I wouldn't do this market again.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T02:22:57.920719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you bet 10 on current avg price 0.3cents you'll get 3333.33 shares and if yes is the outcome you get extra $3323.33. ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-01-31T22:13:41.843505Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",its not over YET! btc mega candle inc,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T08:21:46.549681Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Damn bro sorry to hear that, I'm sure you will recover all the losses soon, best of luck.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:30:42.356611Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Come on bro only making 30 dollars ??,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T15:10:16.235478Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Market crashing left and right. I¡¯m so glad I sold my eth so I could bet on this market. I¡¯m a genius,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T14:31:23.578837Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye West, after disclosing he was offered $2 million to launch a token, asks to speak with Coinbase CEO 'concerning cr",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T04:23:26.240198Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I put mine at 43c but unfortunately I bought at 61c. Not getting out of this unscathed,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-21T19:09:40.762336Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bitcoin has never put +40% monthly candle since 2017. this time is not different,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T03:33:01.492761Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,They have a couple hundred M$ in cash and Saylor already posted his chart on X. The text in the tweet doesnt hint at hod,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-26T16:55:57.180219Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Are you will losing more 63 k bro,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T15:14:45.596909Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Fat finger order haha realised it bit late that I sold instead of buy,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T11:19:06.650441Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,He¡¯s supposed to get his $980M on Tuesday why would he buy on Monday. I hope that this logic works out,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-23T22:07:27.045582Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","bitcoin will reach all time high tomorrow, thank me later ??",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:35:31.440425Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SUDDENLY HAVE A STRONG STRONG FEELING THERE WON'T BE ANY MORE TWEETS FROM KANYE. THEN YOU'LL HEAR NEWS REPORTS HE OD O,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T19:27:56.975762Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","super rare ""Skibidi Sigma Crown"" pattern just appeared meaning btc will go to $104,999 before falling to $50,000.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-01-31T21:47:52.356781Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,"Monday Apr 29, 2024 tweet, the Monday before May earnings release: ""Michael Saylor @saylor Apr 29, 2024 In April, @Micr",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T17:51:19.045341Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"I assume the completion post will come after market ends within like 5 minutes, isn't that how it normally goes?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T08:31:19.022918Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"""Conclusion: While some market analysts and enthusiasts are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching or exceeding the $100,000 ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:10:39.363421Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Is @bugoutmode an insider? He bought $1,016 worth of 'Yes' 10 minutes ago. His account was created June 2023. This is hi",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:55:13.206997Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Didn¡¯t you see the way mstr was in minus ?? It was him selling his mstr shares heavily to buy big number of BTC,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T19:37:48.289686Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",someone lend me $50k so I can buy No $95k,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-23T20:52:26.884922Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,there has only been two time that this exact thing happen. Every other holiday he didn't post graph on Sunday so we all ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:22:26.814923Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Where do you think the $15m grant for spreading LGBTQ awareness among Cambodian youth went to,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:46:09.328681Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Okay, Okay, Okay, I need the price to go up. I can't take this anymore. Everyday I'm checking the price and it's dipping",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T14:23:55.987398Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Saylor is a scammer, we all know it",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T11:21:17.465586Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",We might be looking at a dump down to $60k here,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T14:31:01.840185Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",finally it was good value to buy yes near 90k,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T14:01:55.306928Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","I buy at 7 cent, how big ball i have",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T11:37:15.941314Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Why did you decide to sell your no just curious,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T16:22:43.422868Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",what people dont realize is that its the YES voters that are the ones who have to sweat. they have to continuously break,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:13:55.512253Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Rough calculation. We are about $3600(4%) away from 100k, in crypto you know 4% is nothing lol",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T04:41:12.981425Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this was my first bet on PolyMarket and i went small but a wins a win,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T15:03:08.122172Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,imma choose to believe the londoninsider website. Gl everyone else,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:22:03.434262Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,I have never seen a Car hater with a positive PNL,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T13:11:37.380075Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it will hit 100k and muh precious and famous bowbow will be rich rich RICH,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-12T18:14:23.757671Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",looks like a casual drop to pump even higher to me i recommend you selling,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T01:58:17.050327Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I will give you cleo3 pics if you tip me and send disc,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T12:43:48.732805Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Btc will be at 97000 at the end of november folks,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T08:33:02.192241Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can someone donate me 10 bucks i had my last 50 bucks and i want to put more on no,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:32:59.487602Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,I think there's a reason for the huge liquidity,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T08:20:14.541373Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin has seen many fakeouts at $50k and $20k, there¡¯s a ton of psychological resistance at $99,999 - people would be",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T18:57:01.646844Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,every mstr convert in 2024 was greenshoed and oversubscribed beyond the green shoe by an average of 27%. Expect close to,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:15:38.780569Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I just found another article on CoinPedia posted by an Indian guy... He was paid $1,500 to post a press release saying t",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T23:59:40.821192Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Exactly 7 Days ago, Kanye started tweeting about the Coin in the Evening around this time, we shall see",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:34:58.339618Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We've gone from the manic phase to the depression phase, it seems.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:05:21.046319Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The YZY token was initially set to go for sale on Yeezy's website on Thursday at 6:00 p.m., but the launch was delayed t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T16:54:16.240033Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Whales are going to dispute and win. Nice cash day for Y.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:35:31.854994Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought his account and i'm gonna fake a coin launch. Why is Yes so low?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:46:41.599224Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I lost $4 on this market, very sad but now Im outta here. Enjoy refreshing twitter guys!",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:38:11.954141Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We get the opportunity to short a scam pump to $0, what a gift",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:03:37.174707Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","so glad i bought more at 94.9k, easiest 2x ever",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T15:15:03.009529Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,kimchi what are you doing? buying at 99 selling at 93?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T13:58:07.481466Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bro, I really hope you won't lose your main $100k in 2024 bet",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:48:00.463858Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T02:19:16.741144Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,whates getting scammed on the way up and then on the way down,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:21:50.221348Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Love seeing top NO holders down $50-100k dont gamble on YE,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:32:16.716588Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Would risking a loss of another $300-400 matter to you in order to potentially gain $10,000? Only you can answer that.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:49:50.834871Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If muh precious bullishonsol lawst a brand new BMW M5 series then what the f did Zyn lose?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-01-31T21:55:18.453303Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,pat please get yourself together you can't get mad at me for calling you misinformed and not broke due to luck a day or ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:33:52.243414Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Your $8 will shake the markets up,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T02:20:32.552039Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,if you bet $10 on what and at what price?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-29T03:45:54.090528Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","BTC only reach 110K if fed reduce rate , otherwise flash crash is most probally hedge",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T17:34:16.756449Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",bro should not make finincial desicions,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T11:12:56.906445Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Why is there a 20,000 shares limit order for selling yes for 50 cents?? That¡¯s pretty scary",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T08:54:38.168642Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,No holders come up with all kinds of reasoning just to avoid saving themselves the last 5 bucks. Absolutely wild reading,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:03:13.659963Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,would have never said so... nigga,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T12:58:26.348157Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"To build on this point, it¡¯s also important to note that in all previous Strategy BTC purchases, Michael Saylor or the ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T05:54:10.851462Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm still here too, look at my profile history. I bought in days ago",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T11:18:45.923148Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We may have lost this battle, but we haven't lost the war yet.)",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T10:10:18.847929Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,wait bowbow was actually talking in chat?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:49:41.874851Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@MiyamotoMusashi is a -$2,626.76 weeabo.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:59:59.124295Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,See you degens in the march 7 market,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T09:23:09.882902Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Tick tock, on the clock, but the party don't stop, no oh whoa whoa oh, oh whoa whoa oh",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T03:28:40.652673Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,what is the theory for his website being on the monday? Is this not just based on the ZY in yeezy looking like 24? I've ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:16:31.550901Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"looking at priceaction it might actually happen, such a crazy day",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:32:50.206495Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I took a 4000$ loss on polymarket yesterday i went almost all in on this trade to make back my losses hopefully it goes ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T07:52:23.957209Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"???? ALERT ALERT ???? @MiyamotoMusashi is -$2,104.27",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-20T17:59:24.697558Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","If it's going to hit $110k, just do it right now, please take me out of my misery. Grape me and get it over now. Stop te",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T12:13:07.240118Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,¡° IM TOO RICH TO DO ANYTHING ELSE COINS PREY ON THE FANS WITH HYPE¡± he¡¯s aware he¡¯d be scamming his fans lol,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T14:48:30.756918Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",95k is not a problem. 100k will be harder but the narrative of hitting 100k must be reached for a good storyline and lur,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T22:30:13.194074Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i've been browsing his page for over 3 hours now lol,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-14T14:50:03.942053Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","It was a rough day for me yesterday, doc. And it isn't a career, more like an addiction",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T13:36:44.106881Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,So glad to see Fujin turn around bratha,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:12:32.841908Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Would you use the $200,000 to buy a new home?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T06:10:34.678214Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is Kanye you're talking about.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T11:06:04.867384Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Will the finsl payout be the same if i hold ?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T14:02:46.406044Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",why are you against your own bets lol,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:56:49.829726Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow just bought into november 29th market. Yes is at such good odds it will 5x in a matter of minutes,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:37:36.768973Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BowBow no matter if u win or loose.. Gotta give to u for those Titan sized balls..,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T14:36:24.163888Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,That¡¯s why I bought more :) Just in case he doesn¡¯t,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T03:18:08.099213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wow, a $12M volume trader who still holds positions that went to absolute zero. True market wizardry at work!",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:28:27.778352Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me a $1 so i can buy a few more, this is easy money rn",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T03:44:11.194277Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,buddy you've got like a 100 dollar stake,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:06:01.128482Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Tbh bro I just doubt this number one no holder better you sell it now .. why risk for 50-60 dollars more,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T14:08:15.737811Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How you regards holding yes are doing?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:54:36.409332Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We're pricing in no tweets, If he tweets because he's Kanye then they can just market buy and eager Nos will capitulate",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T16:36:15.366714Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yeah, no doubt Bitcoin will reach 100.000 dollars. I mean, have you seen the order book of btc?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-02-03T12:52:47.879679Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,you might win this win time but on the long the guy is buying everything i have bought the no in the past and i have los,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T04:12:11.132889Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"me, i'll take my chances. yes it was supposed to launched earlier only, and getting delayed. but still a real good chanc",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:28:51.678881Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,By my calculations we are about $2k from $100k,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:24:32.665946Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woofwoof9 bought 21,329 Yes at 46.9c ($10,000) The donation will go towards a good cause my friend.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T21:36:33.168468Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i sold yes, i lost money, but now im in the win side",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-04T04:44:15.238727Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Degen is crazy put 100 k on insiders market,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-03T11:01:52.074587Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Although I bought it, I think there are many insiders on the other side. There are also many people who only registered ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T02:22:57.920719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you bet 10 on current avg price 0.3cents you'll get 3333.33 shares and if yes is the outcome you get extra $3323.33. ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T13:38:41.281198Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,dont let the ye'haters win! keep buying the yes!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T05:30:23.138553Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"ya, i decided to keep quiet. why to take unnecessory critisim and abuses",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:30:40.767214Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"$15,136,263 Vol. So proud of this community",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T15:33:26.021002Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"i have insider knowledge, he will be launching his coin within a week.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:11:42.698654Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""@cleo3 can i sleep with you too please"" - desperate schizokanye",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:17:38.170917Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you seem very angry about the $20 your going to lose today, so I assume you aren't doing too well financially lmao",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T06:18:16.771286Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"If dalailama and nunchak are indeed insiders, they will get reported to SEC if they win this lol, too much risk for them",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T21:37:25.393527Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""I don't need your pus*y b*tch; I'm on my own d*ck."" - Kanye West",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T15:52:40.667209Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Says the guy with minus $1200 profit ??,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T09:17:47.610764Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thanks BowBow for holding the yes holders % up,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:32:56.378983Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,finally something we can agree on,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:17:45.793027Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bro fr ill take $1 tip to bet on No, i fr only got $4 rn and its all on NO baby",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T14:47:11.687367Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29 IS LITERALLY AT 72% NO, YALL NO IS STILL CHEAP ON THIS LMAO",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T20:44:19.092037Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","yes, quite a good buying opporunity of NO shares as well",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T15:27:02.622578Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,like nobody knows that Kanye is Ye,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T13:49:55.327097Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,We should we thankful that we have the opportunity to buy 1 dollar for 24 cents,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-08T06:42:26.916058Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","What happened, down so much in one day?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:09:00.853102Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine Kanye just drops the ticker with 5 minutes left,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:44:02.110895Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"First thing i saw, wanted something different than default colors",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-04T13:14:30.194414Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,saylor is worth 10 bil dorsnt care about insiders ¡­,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T03:01:52.032299Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think anyone with $500k to throw on a bet knows people for sure.. a low probability as well,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T11:00:48.607521Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,$41.41 is what you need to break 6c,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T00:04:54.500897Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Please I beg you, this time is the last one, no more gambling, I promise. Just put me breakeven please lord. I promise n",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:47:30.085557Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys I sold all my YES and bought NO because I saw this: Specifically, MicroStrategy will announce details of its latest",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T09:10:29.252697Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yes true, when I bought some large chunks it was cheap around 28c for sure. Now it¡¯s not cheap anymore for the risk one",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:45:01.790892Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You are actually just chilling,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T09:34:59.795501Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"At the time of this writing, according to the share button, BowBow will win $1,999,999.91, not $2 million.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:27:46.482499Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You guys are celebrating but most volatility occurs before markets close right,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:10:27.927568Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,All this makes me more confident in NO,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T12:25:43.662269Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,He won't break the weekly steak,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-24T12:56:53.970009Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,I sold for cheap but I fine with that should have sold yesterday for 98c,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T05:27:57.019133Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I sold my no In profit at 70c day before yesterday.. taking bet on yes let¡¯s see .,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T12:26:37.710472Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,I'll also be digging around LondonInsider for a bit--I suspect they've been retroactively changing their reports.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T00:10:48.555149Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your NO guys i will be happy to get it for $0.25,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..70e0024f35faf7cd3ca349d3d94b4fb46e0243fb --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,578 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +522080,2025-02-23T04:01:42.384676Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"-$1,824.40, you're white and you're mad that the white birth rate is declining",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,500.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T07:17:04.052321Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Guys remember, if someone actually publishes coin from his account, he will later claim he was hacked, so just sell duri",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T18:26:35.993042Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",just set an alert for when price reaches that point then you manually exit,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:24:32.665946Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woofwoof9 bought 21,329 Yes at 46.9c ($10,000) The donation will go towards a good cause my friend.",NO,YES,False,True,22.0109,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:02:24.252341Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"i simple man, i see yes, i click yes",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T05:06:28.335036Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I sold most of my stocks at a loss, but luckily I didn't lose money.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,8374.068,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T18:57:01.646844Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,every mstr convert in 2024 was greenshoed and oversubscribed beyond the green shoe by an average of 27%. Expect close to,NO,YES,False,True,2612.9247,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-21T12:09:20.293053Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Small buy??? Bro thats nearly $1b worth of BTC lol,YES,NO,False,True,10897.4074,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T20:43:59.349182Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"GUYS URGENT WHALES ARE SELLING THEIR POSITIONS !!!! Original-Zyn sold 337,981 No at 65.0c ($219,68765) aenews2 sold 208",NO,NO,True,True,7235.835,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T19:27:56.975762Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","super rare ""Skibidi Sigma Crown"" pattern just appeared meaning btc will go to $104,999 before falling to $50,000.",NO,NO,True,True,227.2932,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:30:01.971442Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nice one, you bought at the right time and saw the vision",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:47:30.085557Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys I sold all my YES and bought NO because I saw this: Specifically, MicroStrategy will announce details of its latest",NO,NO,True,True,2518.6,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T00:10:48.555149Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your NO guys i will be happy to get it for $0.25,NO,NO,True,True,573.7366,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T14:31:23.578837Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye West, after disclosing he was offered $2 million to launch a token, asks to speak with Coinbase CEO 'concerning cr",NO,YES,False,True,1034.999,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T23:07:58.342544Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Remember, last time it was Friday evening, it was the first time Kanye spoke about his Coin.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:41:02.211289Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"He¡¯s made back $200k from from yesterday, honestly I wouldn¡¯t have doubled down with if it¡¯s wasn¡¯t for him",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,180.4805,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T03:20:29.824888Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","this is close, does it need to hold 95k for a minute?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:31:10.317936Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh guys, i missed it, i wanted to buy all in YES, crap... can smb tip me i would buy YES all IN",NO,YES,False,True,7235.835,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T22:01:20.056475Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I bought another $1k of NO now!,NO,NO,True,True,3518.6,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T08:45:31.123498Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yes, its makes sense, but if you are insider, and know the coin will launch, why not wait 3-5 extra days for extra +20-3",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T18:35:51.509732Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"That was $600 million convertible notes. This time, it's $2 billion. They purchase large sums of BTC within seven days.",NO,YES,False,True,9.43,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T09:33:57.036022Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,you should sell while being breakeven beaver !,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:27:46.482499Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You guys are celebrating but most volatility occurs before markets close right,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-13T18:03:05.408538Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I mean you saw how the stock market gains since the Trump trade were already completely wiped away. BTC won't be any dif,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:16:52.471218Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,unless big daddy BlackRock comes around the corner with a check over $200M USD it might be over,NO,NO,True,True,2271.7375,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:48:39.335978Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"your going to give me $20 today because you are wrong and I am right hahah, does that bother you? lol",NO,NO,True,True,4604.9024,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T01:44:01.469642Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? NO's are still cheap get'em while you can!,NO,NO,True,True,112.01,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:23:17.653064Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,fr but that still doesn't mean he won't launch it by himself. but I think this cz shit is just to hype it up,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:21:50.221348Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Love seeing top NO holders down $50-100k dont gamble on YE,YES,NO,False,True,19.94,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:45:01.790892Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You are actually just chilling,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:04:50.613529Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can we no holders crowdfund and send some funny smelling bitches to Kanye's villa right now?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T08:56:05.970438Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"hahaha he was No first, then yes, now again NO. he sold in loss every single time.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:46:09.328681Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Okay, Okay, Okay, I need the price to go up. I can't take this anymore. Everyday I'm checking the price and it's dipping",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T11:17:08.309284Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Good mornimg. Genuine question, what's it like knowing you've given away $16K to random degenerates on the internet?",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T05:03:32.390773Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"ATH for November will be $99,999.99 and i will win this bet",NO,YES,False,True,120.7,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T15:03:08.122172Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,imma choose to believe the londoninsider website. Gl everyone else,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-19T23:32:27.288894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Why nobody scared this being an ultramega rugpull,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T17:32:25.058132Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I don't know what happened, but buy $5 for fun",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,5.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:51:00.255379Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oooh, you make $40 per hour so impressive, hahah loser",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4604.9024,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T22:16:27.310624Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I heard he was dropping in tele? I sold all my ¡°No¡¯s¡± at 100%+ so I¡¯m just doing a quick small hedge in case.,YES,YES,True,True,36.36,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T12:06:46.393348Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"im not + at least I have money, you seem to have NONE!",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:18:51.220688Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"exactly duh, surely hmu with like $1 so i can get a 5x on $1 this easy as fuck",NO,YES,False,True,1.73,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:46:20.920417Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,insiders + HODL = a clear NO. don't know why the price is not 90c already for NO.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T14:42:33.414897Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,come on pat don't pretend :)) congrats,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-17T10:35:26.631299Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,yea im gonna sell when YES goes down. if i sell now i will lose $800 :(,NO,YES,False,True,3611.34,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T12:24:11.184522Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Thank you Alphax for taking this hit for us, you saved a lot of people from losing a lot of money",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-02-02T13:47:38.137721Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,3 weeks ago he also was 1 hour too late,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:48:58.317655Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,We all know he bought lol but he won¡¯t announce on Monday,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:30:15.802263Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","only gamble what youre willing to lose, i only put $15 in for fun on this position just cause of the crazy odds",NO,NO,True,True,43.48,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T13:32:25.875675Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I believe poly officially encourages insider trading bc it improves their prediction accuracy.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T03:20:02.301789Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can i take a lessons from you? i dont give a shit bout my position here,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T02:22:57.920719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you bet 10 on current avg price 0.3cents you'll get 3333.33 shares and if yes is the outcome you get extra $3323.33. ,YES,NO,False,True,0.1,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T11:12:56.906445Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Why is there a 20,000 shares limit order for selling yes for 50 cents?? That¡¯s pretty scary",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T03:18:08.099213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wow, a $12M volume trader who still holds positions that went to absolute zero. True market wizardry at work!",NO,NO,True,True,30.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T18:18:07.621143Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"its a bubble, they cant all sell, most of them will lose",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-10T15:13:57.354314Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"You must be since you¡¯re holding no, lol",YES,NO,False,True,4.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:09:19.655574Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",365 btc at 95k. Candle needs to close 1 min on 95k,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,NO,YES,False,True,1.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:44:57.769454Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"daoistimmortal is insider went all in in NO after selling YES, interesting",NO,NO,True,True,300.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-30T05:00:46.155512Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"u didn't lose it. check ur wallet, it must be there",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:29:58.817125Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bro, go and check that market. i don't know what's wrong with you",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:05:21.046319Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The YZY token was initially set to go for sale on Yeezy's website on Thursday at 6:00 p.m., but the launch was delayed t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-01-31T21:47:52.356781Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,"Monday Apr 29, 2024 tweet, the Monday before May earnings release: ""Michael Saylor @saylor Apr 29, 2024 In April, @Micr",YES,YES,True,True,17038.2611,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T15:52:24.539775Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,told you I would buy back in lower,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T22:43:19.795507Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,TF did you just say? don't you know who I am?! XD,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T05:21:22.514612Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Oh, how sad, my 30 bucks are gone :( we'll hardly be able to jump over a hundred in three days",YES,NO,False,True,32.72,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-15T17:43:00.681642Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,take pls credit from bank pls to play big atleast,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:56:55.777282Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,as well i only got $4 buck lol,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.7352,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-12T08:32:08.708375Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",ez win on the spot trading bro. got 1 btc set to sell at 90001. will buy more back at 88500.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T12:40:18.288171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Don't spend your $0.66 profit all at once,YES,NO,False,True,969.0409,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:55:30.306732Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me a few bucks, this is the easiest money ive ever seen but i only have $1.6 rn",NO,YES,False,True,1.73,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T14:47:11.687367Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29 IS LITERALLY AT 72% NO, YALL NO IS STILL CHEAP ON THIS LMAO",NO,NO,True,True,38.1071,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:53:58.293321Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""CoinDesk did not agree to the embargo, and three sources close to the project authenticated the document""",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:22:09.710313Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't listen to that retard. He probably doesn't even know what the differences between Azure and on-premises AD are. Th,YES,NO,False,True,110.004,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:36:27.230037Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Gonna take a nap guys, could wake up $15 poorer we will see, very exciting.",NO,NO,True,True,22.0109,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T22:28:33.946143Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,So you're saying $1 can turn into like $80? K here's a dollar,NO,YES,False,True,149.6667,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:07:20.000707Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"If you are thinking it will hit 100k today, buy at MUCH better odds at https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-100000",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T07:42:13.541005Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bers better lock in your profits now, before its too late ??????",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T22:06:29.007475Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"all or nothing for me. I bought no, at 08 cents.",NO,NO,True,True,119.54,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T09:08:43.601911Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"May 26, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) is this till midnight then",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T14:06:51.574664Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,It implies the purchase with his tweet and announces it tomorrow.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T23:26:45.969804Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Not holding a position is really fun guys! My heart doesn¡¯t skip a beat everytime new schizo information comes out abou,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-05T14:01:23.791513Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,He lost 2169 dollars in that market if he was really an insider he would¡¯ve know that mstr will buy more than 200 plus ,NO,YES,False,True,5163.0436,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:27:49.482594Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,it's on sale right now for 80c,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-25T15:37:20.945179Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",it is at $95K rn it will need now $10K so it got even harder for you to reach that.,NO,NO,True,True,100.41,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:17:38.170917Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you seem very angry about the $20 your going to lose today, so I assume you aren't doing too well financially lmao",NO,NO,True,True,4604.9024,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T22:39:53.853049Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I BOUGHT NO AT 28 CENTS WIGGAZ. THIS SHIT IS TOO EASY,NO,NO,True,True,500.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:51:00.255379Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oooh, you make $40 per hour so impressive, hahah loser",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4604.9024,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T14:45:36.903523Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are absolutely correct. If Bullishonsole hadn't bought $2,000+ yesterday, I would still be holding my 6K+ no shares.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.8614,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T12:30:35.974309Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Still cheap right now 1 dollar for 78c,NO,YES,False,True,1721.9937,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T23:10:36.834391Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Congrats for all chads who holding NO and dont care about BOW BOW lol,NO,NO,True,True,1096.47,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T21:24:10.313414Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,hes gonna pump it to 100k himself dw,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T03:44:11.194277Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,buddy you've got like a 100 dollar stake,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,45.5014,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T06:49:18.432713Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"unfortunately, I lost it everything ((( please ,who can tip me",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-18T18:16:39.272121Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,Dang if i knew tips was such a paperhand I would've put up lower limit orders,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T13:49:55.327097Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,We should we thankful that we have the opportunity to buy 1 dollar for 24 cents,NO,NO,True,True,1592.47,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:02:24.971437Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"lol, this event was unpredictable. But I would be selling now anyway for like $3 more its whatever.",NO,NO,True,True,4.0109,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T20:35:00.039257Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Although details of MicroStrategy¡¯s BTC purchasing activity will be revealed on Monday, the firm will have to wait unti",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:29:54.222012Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh no 400 dollars what am i gunna do, not like i made 6.5k buying no at 30 lol",NO,NO,True,True,4068.6382,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:35:31.036373Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"not exactly same situation. I was comfortable with 24h ago, but when things start coming off the mouth of the horse and ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T04:41:12.981425Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this was my first bet on PolyMarket and i went small but a wins a win,NO,YES,False,True,59.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T15:20:01.474807Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hey, my card doesn't work for deposits so would be very grateful for any tips!",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-17T11:39:41.903019Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,yes lol i wasnt focussing and i bought no by accident. i am waiting for the price to fall then i will swap all of it to ,NO,YES,False,True,3611.34,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T23:59:40.821192Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Exactly 7 Days ago, Kanye started tweeting about the Coin in the Evening around this time, we shall see",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:17:38.170917Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you seem very angry about the $20 your going to lose today, so I assume you aren't doing too well financially lmao",NO,NO,True,True,4604.9024,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T05:30:23.138553Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"ya, i decided to keep quiet. why to take unnecessory critisim and abuses",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-07T12:07:13.246709Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,you should've had stayed in no side Bro,NO,NO,True,True,3827.7687,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T03:16:53.653833Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I sold all my coins and then bought back because i said aint no way im quitting polymarket with a negative portfolio,NO,NO,True,True,5491.9682,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T11:19:06.650441Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,He¡¯s supposed to get his $980M on Tuesday why would he buy on Monday. I hope that this logic works out,NO,YES,False,True,449.93,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T06:11:46.488745Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Well, you couldn't because it was a terrible bet, and went against all statistical evidence you seem to love so much. It",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T01:46:12.777505Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,We get it you just found out God isn't real from a Reddit post and now you are posting about it everywhere. It's ok,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T11:00:48.607521Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,$41.41 is what you need to break 6c,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,225.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T03:09:57.797334Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"His average transaction price is 56, and you? You threw 17 bucks in like a brainless gambler and still think you¡¯re mak",NO,NO,True,True,30.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:30:42.356611Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Come on bro only making 30 dollars ??,NO,NO,True,True,434.2581,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T22:41:51.042225Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BTC didn¡¯t hit $20k or $70k on the last runs. It won¡¯t hit $100k until the next one,NO,NO,True,True,329.4849,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:16:49.052175Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,enjoy you'll never get a market like that ever again,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:54:36.938261Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I bought some Yes for the lols, Imagine if bowbow gets out at 12c at massive loss and we hit 100k??",YES,YES,True,True,552.4193,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T12:19:34.137784Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,No it¡¯s in strategies books already,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:28:51.678881Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,By my calculations we are about $2k from $100k,YES,YES,True,True,255.2328,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T07:55:55.915572Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I asked chatgpt between Tyson and Paul who will win. Let's just say Chatgpt chose wrong.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T19:27:26.736594Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Almost there, less than $500 to go.",YES,YES,True,True,3.6803,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T22:27:25.384309Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,What make you so confident in no .. explain bro ?,YES,YES,True,True,5123.5971,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:03:58.694187Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He has -$2,663.32. Fucking degenerate",NO,NO,True,True,500.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:32:59.487602Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,I think there's a reason for the huge liquidity,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:10:54.120377Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yeah I mean I am honestly rooting for BowBow, but it might seem like he just needs 1500 dollars, but the 99.9k Wall is t",NO,NO,True,True,266.37,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:41:41.880032Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","The is risk to reward is crazy, that¡¯s why I bought in",NO,YES,False,True,213.3624,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:33:57.770117Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"far out ur balling how tf u have so much money, im stuck with $1.7 of which i bet it all on this",NO,YES,False,True,1.73,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T01:51:18.733019Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"It's true. I'm actually extremely humble, maybe one of the most humble people around, everyone is saying it",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:37:02.235576Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Im so sad I found this at the end of the month with my last 20 bucks, the odds are amazing, and this unhinged dudes twea",NO,YES,False,True,16.5488,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T14:48:30.756918Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",95k is not a problem. 100k will be harder but the narrative of hitting 100k must be reached for a good storyline and lur,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T20:46:20.237975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can't wait for the UMA disputes when some coin is launched by the scammers using ye's account .... popcorn ready,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-08T22:02:39.635793Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,looks to me that someone/something bought around $580m using Coinbase Prime brokerage right after MSTR's preferreds comp,YES,YES,True,True,23639.3842,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:22:09.710313Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't listen to that retard. He probably doesn't even know what the differences between Azure and on-premises AD are. Th,YES,NO,False,True,110.004,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T19:05:00.345302Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Ill cover ur losses - quit porn and cleanse ur soul and mind and return to god,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T23:02:09.117757Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"down $5k in this market but up by more in a related market, GuyWhoFcks was questioning the quality of the hedged bet, i ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4898.1039,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T16:19:49.461417Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"if NO holders were insiders, why are they not buying cheap NO? when they were ready to buy at 50c. wake up, only insider",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T03:33:01.492761Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,They have a couple hundred M$ in cash and Saylor already posted his chart on X. The text in the tweet doesnt hint at hod,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:54:54.912064Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i dont wanna say cuzz then everyone will sell YES and buy NO and then I wont get filled. so far i only have $7k position,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,6876.0182,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:56:11.973111Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You're welcome! Says a lot about your financial situation if you have to thank me over $20,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T19:37:40.680451Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","$105,000 only? where is $1,000,000",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:40:25.270776Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"surely gimmi a $1 or too to buy some more yes, it easy money but i only got 1.6",NO,YES,False,True,1.73,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-26T08:58:41.953014Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",Hopefully I don't win these 6 dollars,NO,NO,True,True,1.4412,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T18:59:29.307524Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah def negative for no holders that he posted the chart, but I bought a shitton of shares at 2c so could be well worth",NO,YES,False,True,966.1162,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:58:02.039199Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,NO Buyers are scared pussies and no one filled my order for $40k YES. Im gonna cancel my order now. useless market with ,YES,NO,False,True,8215.8427,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:17:11.241859Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Who the heck is this and why he Trade yes: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x22271273b28d0d198a8e5ff9e7f9f75d0c24b572,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:32:56.378983Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,finally something we can agree on,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:29:56.053059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,1 nga u have 46 dollars in 2 i promise you if someone bought his acc theyre not worried about a polymarket bet when they,NO,NO,True,True,12247.56,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-12T18:14:23.757671Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",looks like a casual drop to pump even higher to me i recommend you selling,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-20T20:44:00.090468Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",why you dont bet No when it was 90c. if trump do something about btc this month. iit will get 100k easly.. care friend,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T21:58:27.835024Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,No. This guy just made more then $200k on this and just put few grands for anti fomo,NO,NO,True,True,808.7336,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-21T12:05:42.070541Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Everyone was hoping for over 10k.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:09:00.853102Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine Kanye just drops the ticker with 5 minutes left,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:32:47.784032Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wtf happened? i was sleeping, missed out selling at 90c",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:11:42.698654Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""@cleo3 can i sleep with you too please"" - desperate schizokanye",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:05:13.437319Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I have just ran some calculations, and we are about $3000 from $100,0000",YES,YES,True,True,969.0409,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T20:46:54.615441Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bro this market is fucked I hope I see you all again on something equally retarded,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T23:52:57.950729Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","When it reaches $100,000, it's going to be all over the news. After that, the price will most likely skyrocket.",YES,YES,True,True,250.69,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:17:38.653342Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought more at 15c like a chad broski,NO,YES,False,True,1.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:28:23.522757Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I wish I bought at around 25c no, haha.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,8373.1482,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:56:24.027561Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"thats his thing he does before he releases albums, he is just getting attention, he wont and inturn im betting money on ",NO,NO,True,True,1.7352,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T15:04:15.016518Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"If anyone got a few extra and don't know what to do with it, feel free to send my way!",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:03:12.767897Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yes, 4 of them literally hold NO right now. Why do u think that is?",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:41:31.147379Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm gonna miss this fucking market.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-15T20:20:01.816202Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",let's go let's get it 110k next step,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T22:11:32.228664Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,free channel in tg polymarketfree,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T03:54:11.745845Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"my prediction: 10 ema will now cross 20 ema(4h chart), then upmove can continue and soon 100k. all these loudmouth no sa",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T16:10:58.384027Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,For one thing not every bitch has an IG or is a social media addict. Not saying if she has one or not. Even if she did I,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T14:37:09.603422Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Totally agree. For a 50c option, 1c is 2% profit. Better let others to pay the price if the liquidity is good. Otherwise",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:34:58.339618Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We've gone from the manic phase to the depression phase, it seems.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T01:39:05.090735Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Why the Insider isn't here this week,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:49:39.926921Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"No Holders Please Place No order in Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? ??",YES,NO,False,True,632404.2006,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T07:32:20.014433Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,The news of Strategy raising $711 million to buy more Bitcoin increases the likelihood of a purchase in the near future ,NO,NO,True,True,654.73,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T13:58:07.481466Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bro, I really hope you won't lose your main $100k in 2024 bet",NO,NO,True,True,1512.74,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-24T12:56:53.970009Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,I sold for cheap but I fine with that should have sold yesterday for 98c,NO,NO,True,True,245.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:31:39.426016Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,many still haven't sold. and bullishonsol sold at 1c.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T22:06:33.438357Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,obviously i dont know jack shit and time decay is not in yes favor but i think timing the market is doable,NO,NO,True,True,62.4262,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T07:52:23.957209Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"???? ALERT ALERT ???? @MiyamotoMusashi is -$2,104.27",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,500.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T05:54:10.851462Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm still here too, look at my profile history. I bought in days ago",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,500.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-23T19:46:33.274895Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,He has other ways to raise money AND he could technically finish a sale before the set date and do buys over the weekend,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T08:38:25.662008Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this will be the biggest rekt of month,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T08:35:44.264877Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Dammm 200k in a bet ? he must be a millionaire that's like $200 bucks for him.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,119.54,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-18T15:26:23.612796Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"That would make me bullish on ""YES"" here https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-in-2025?tid=1744989954875",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:38:43.877609Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""Yes"" will go on a slow decline until he drops the coin or the resolution date is reached.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T16:54:16.240033Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Whales are going to dispute and win. Nice cash day for Y.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T17:28:50.944831Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,let the fun begin.see you NO holders at 80c,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T13:47:48.606467Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",This is where we make bank brotha,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T01:58:17.050327Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I will give you cleo3 pics if you tip me and send disc,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T11:01:17.512103Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can we get badges that display our religion next to our screen names? I want to see how many J3WS are holding YES,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,716.6325,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T15:23:57.684694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"gg to the diamond hands, i sold the top. max pain",NO,NO,True,True,226.727,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:02:37.584755Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",The 94900 wall is the wall Trump wishes he could've built,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:06:13.019898Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought some too. Cleo made a post about scanning and he found a multisig. I'm just yoloing because I cashed out all of,YES,NO,False,True,100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:15:13.316202Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he's gonna take another loss. he has no conviction,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:57:04.634187Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,$40k is nothing to me bro. but anyway i am 100% sure on monday saylor will announce he bought. i have over $700k in MSTR,YES,YES,True,True,8215.8427,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:06:01.128482Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Tbh bro I just doubt this number one no holder better you sell it now .. why risk for 50-60 dollars more,NO,NO,True,True,2029.1785,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:55:13.206997Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Didn¡¯t you see the way mstr was in minus ?? It was him selling his mstr shares heavily to buy big number of BTC,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,YES,YES,True,True,93.0883,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T00:04:54.500897Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Please I beg you, this time is the last one, no more gambling, I promise. Just put me breakeven please lord. I promise n",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:45:42.387292Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye is dropping 11:59PM ET on Friday, and we'll make it all back",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T07:03:22.991805Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,arbitraging and selling put options and farming premium,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T11:37:15.941314Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Why did you decide to sell your no just curious,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T08:21:46.549681Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Damn bro sorry to hear that, I'm sure you will recover all the losses soon, best of luck.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-23T06:51:06.540244Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","Concerned about the BYBIT exchange theft, so I purchased a $1 ticket for fun. But I hope that doesn't happen lol.",YES,NO,False,True,1.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T01:11:59.526404Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"You absolute menace, enjoy those $30,064.75!!! Props to you. PROPS TO ALL NO HOLDERS, we all got fucking scared today, a",NO,NO,True,True,2040.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:05:16.393716Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"how about 47c for $200,000 USDC?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,6876.0182,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-21T19:09:40.762336Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bitcoin has never put +40% monthly candle since 2017. this time is not different,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T21:06:32.331499Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",@Pedro999 broke af betting against the market RETARD,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T22:30:19.755646Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Chat, beginner here. Do I hold until the end, or do i selln now?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T11:21:17.465586Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",We might be looking at a dump down to $60k here,YES,NO,False,True,30578.7082,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T14:31:01.840185Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",finally it was good value to buy yes near 90k,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T09:34:59.795501Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"At the time of this writing, according to the share button, BowBow will win $1,999,999.91, not $2 million.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,5003.9635,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T16:07:36.800829Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Yep he got a team working for him. All it takes is an insider to be on that team and recommend something like ¡°we shoul,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T13:11:37.380075Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it will hit 100k and muh precious and famous bowbow will be rich rich RICH,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:46:03.140919Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,then go to this market and 5x ur money https://polymarket.com/event/did-kanye-sell-his-twitter-account?tid=1740278496346,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:48:39.335978Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"your going to give me $20 today because you are wrong and I am right hahah, does that bother you? lol",NO,NO,True,True,4604.9024,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T09:10:29.252697Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yes true, when I bought some large chunks it was cheap around 28c for sure. Now it¡¯s not cheap anymore for the risk one",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,8430.1899,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-29T03:45:54.090528Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","BTC only reach 110K if fed reduce rate , otherwise flash crash is most probally hedge",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:44:02.110895Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"First thing i saw, wanted something different than default colors",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T15:33:26.021002Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"i have insider knowledge, he will be launching his coin within a week.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T08:19:25.332238Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"$90 downside, $4000+ upside. As a fulltime NAS daytrader the RRR is too good to pass up lol",NO,YES,False,True,90.31,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T15:14:45.596909Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Fat finger order haha realised it bit late that I sold instead of buy,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,200.1034,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T08:33:02.192241Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can someone donate me 10 bucks i had my last 50 bucks and i want to put more on no,NO,NO,True,True,47.23,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T14:23:55.987398Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Saylor is a scammer, we all know it",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:11:13.959747Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"The way I see it is a 50x return. First scenario is; he actually buys and I lose $100 (boo-hoo), second scenario is; he ",NO,YES,False,True,116.77,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:32.827559Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i hope we¡¯ve got some backup to pray,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T23:56:03.393074Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"CoinDesk and WatcherGuru are hosting a Bitcoin $100K livestream right now. Wtf bro, are they like anticipating it happen",NO,YES,False,True,5003.9635,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T08:31:19.022918Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"""Conclusion: While some market analysts and enthusiasts are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching or exceeding the $100,000 ",YES,NO,False,True,174.6129,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T17:51:19.045341Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"I assume the completion post will come after market ends within like 5 minutes, isn't that how it normally goes?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T00:37:47.224242Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"So if I bet $10 and I win the bet, do I get an extra $10?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,16.99,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:47:50.656902Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,6876.0182,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T19:21:33.189303Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,if i was doing that would i have bought YES at 45c? make it make sense,YES,YES,True,True,8215.8427,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-01-31T22:13:41.843505Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",its not over YET! btc mega candle inc,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:13:55.512253Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Rough calculation. We are about $3600(4%) away from 100k, in crypto you know 4% is nothing lol",YES,YES,True,True,273.5393,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:34:35.842507Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I know, that's why I relate to you and feel concerned for anger both ways.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T01:03:42.440397Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Why is this mkt cheaper than the one for the 29th when it's only 1 day difference?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-13T12:23:51.256632Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",is this here working like a future/options trade would at a cex?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:36:05.326863Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm really worried about ae I'm not kidding either,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T18:32:09.863188Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"you make a fair point, history shows a 100% record for green shoe and 100% record for even more capital than that. I'm g",NO,YES,False,True,2612.9247,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-04T04:44:15.238727Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Degen is crazy put 100 k on insiders market,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:36:38.191723Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yeah, he seemed less angry last week. Like things were looking up a bit.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-19T20:15:56.456894Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",so far your position is -3k so why dont you take this discount and buy more if you are so sure lol ????,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T22:01:18.377709Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bowbow bitcoin just went up 100 dollars time to buy more!,NO,YES,False,True,630.5406,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:15:09.164931Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"any chance u can give me like $1, i prob wanna get another dozen no but dont got anything rn as well this is obvious why",NO,NO,True,True,1.73,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T11:06:04.867384Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Will the finsl payout be the same if i hold ?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,618.46,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T22:50:52.085976Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",the rise is definitely pointing towards some correlation to trump being elected,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T18:55:54.412009Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",correction from close to 100K to 87k imho,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:07:56.189953Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Ok, I'm convinced, I bought more no",NO,NO,True,True,22363.918,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:48:00.463858Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",YES,YES,True,True,6876.0182,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T14:01:55.306928Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","I buy at 7 cent, how big ball i have",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T16:52:09.424122Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,do something against ur autism brian,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T04:12:11.132889Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"me, i'll take my chances. yes it was supposed to launched earlier only, and getting delayed. but still a real good chanc",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-08T06:42:26.916058Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","What happened, down so much in one day?",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T21:13:43.374239Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,also you've only made $50 and are getting this emotional over this bet. Maybe you are the one who needs to start posting,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,26.3264,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:33:52.243414Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Your $8 will shake the markets up,NO,YES,False,True,2581.22,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T13:56:27.848288Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Now he sold all the NOs and put the profits into Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?,YES,NO,False,True,20.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-20T17:59:24.697558Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","If it's going to hit $110k, just do it right now, please take me out of my misery. Grape me and get it over now. Stop te",NO,NO,True,True,1681.722,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T16:35:43.311798Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yeah, no doubt Bitcoin will not reach 100.000 dollars. I mean, have you seen the order book of btc?",NO,NO,True,True,9.13,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-23T22:58:36.039459Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,don't worry you got at 50 seem fair just because your daddy sold,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T06:04:09.668797Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i switched sides. reasons listed below.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T05:27:57.019133Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I sold my no In profit at 70c day before yesterday.. taking bet on yes let¡¯s see .,YES,YES,True,True,1777.6983,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-17T16:05:12.797491Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","ggs for my boys who bought yes at $105.000, lets hope for another pump trump to hit $110.000",YES,YES,True,True,20.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T14:13:13.423756Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,its Superbowl Sunday ofcourse he isnt posting!,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T20:52:31.428819Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",It has never been so obvious that it will hit 100k... crazy.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:22:26.814923Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Where do you think the $15m grant for spreading LGBTQ awareness among Cambodian youth went to,YES,NO,False,True,225292.9331,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T06:18:16.771286Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"If dalailama and nunchak are indeed insiders, they will get reported to SEC if they win this lol, too much risk for them",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T11:18:45.923148Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We may have lost this battle, but we haven't lost the war yet.)",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:18:07.056027Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hold the line! We hit $99.5K a few days ago, but we¡¯re still holding strong. There¡¯s strong resistance at $99.5K. it w",NO,NO,True,True,408.6401,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:21:49.315582Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"I AM BUYING ANOTHER 80,000 YES SHARES AT $0.39. FILL ME GUYS. I am not gonna increase my price.",YES,YES,True,True,6876.0182,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T21:36:33.168468Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i sold yes, i lost money, but now im in the win side",NO,YES,False,True,46.6048,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T02:20:32.552039Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,if you bet $10 on what and at what price?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.1,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T12:32:50.286653Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It went up $500 and yes holders starting stroking it,NO,YES,False,True,1232.7083,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-12T07:44:46.595818Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,$MSTR ATM Update: Based on most recent 8-K ~$4.17B left in ATM ($4.15B to be exact). https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/statu,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,691.3282,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T03:18:08.099213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wow, a $12M volume trader who still holds positions that went to absolute zero. True market wizardry at work!",NO,NO,True,True,30.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T13:37:44.169713Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Jim Cramer said: ""All I can tell you is, own Bitcoin. That's a winner."" I sold ""Yes""",NO,NO,True,True,3.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T06:16:54.088816Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He said fuck nfts like 2 weeks ago,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T20:26:29.964818Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,bro how are you $50k down on your portfolio LOL?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,20.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T18:12:25.437589Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Do you look at the order book data or just purely from graphs?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:25:02.877735Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,aenews i'm starting to get worried about you. you've lost your magic touch. you used to be so so good at this but these ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T16:47:17.216629Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,i dont get it. The bitcoin tracker image he tweeted doesnt seem like he bought any bitcoin after Jan 31st-ish. I just bo,NO,NO,True,True,7.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T21:42:15.720594Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I knew it was over when kanye deleted all his tweets,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T09:07:02.750612Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"We will all know for future, we know how Saylor buying BTC we have max 3 hours from here to expect post, Saylor always a",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T03:01:52.032299Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think anyone with $500k to throw on a bet knows people for sure.. a low probability as well,YES,NO,False,True,196.0393,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-31T02:31:07.469077Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I bet 150k on Risky shit but still cant approach girls ??,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-07T11:25:04.479844Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,Im new here... first trade!.... Is this really that simple? I vote no amd if i win my 14 dollar is 181? Whats the catch.,NO,NO,True,True,12.7,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T14:06:41.819463Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,What happened? Is there any news? Has they bought it again?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T09:33:49.347085Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,No nigga I ain't doing what you tell me to do. You think I take instructions from a Jew?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T21:46:48.140777Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"As of February 9, 2025, MicroStrategy has not announced any Bitcoin purchases between February 4 and February 10. The co",NO,NO,True,True,11.5,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T18:40:12.273401Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,kanye says that his net worth is $2.77 billion when actualy all his worth is $400 million (as of late January 2025). His,NO,NO,True,True,100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-01-31T22:53:16.022098Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,You mean your broker took your money today,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T13:47:03.523944Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",now it starts to get intresting,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T11:53:30.811686Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,lol what is this guy doing my avg is so bad ??,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T20:58:14.037817Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Guys it isnt a pump for no. its a dump for yes.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:17:45.793027Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bro fr ill take $1 tip to bet on No, i fr only got $4 rn and its all on NO baby",NO,NO,True,True,1.7352,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T20:44:19.092037Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","yes, quite a good buying opporunity of NO shares as well",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T05:06:28.335036Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I sold most of my stocks at a loss, but luckily I didn't lose money.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,8374.068,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-06T18:37:19.056021Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Unemployment data on friday, inflation data with ridiculous expectations on the 15th. A generally second weak half for b",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-17T11:13:46.575445Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Some retard filled me at 66ct NO which im now selling. Im a trader,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:21:15.083541Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I need to make $4 its tough I know,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4.2684,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:03:13.659963Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,would have never said so... nigga,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-23T06:45:50.242916Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Waiting for the harvest of patience.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T21:10:37.549954Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,What's happening? I don't even trade these markets. What's the tl;dr on market prices?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T06:58:52.127018Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Then there's so many other proofs, like the things written in the article. Ofcourse this wasn't a pump dump. And if they",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:35:02.647761Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"me too kanye i lost almost all of my money, i just need 1k so i can gamble more",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T21:37:25.393527Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""I don't need your pus*y b*tch; I'm on my own d*ck."" - Kanye West",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:35:31.440425Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SUDDENLY HAVE A STRONG STRONG FEELING THERE WON'T BE ANY MORE TWEETS FROM KANYE. THEN YOU'LL HEAR NEWS REPORTS HE OD O,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:43:22.512446Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i wouldnt advise you to do that bc the 100k psychological mark isnt invincible,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:54:02.573805Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is a market lasting more than a month. Why do you think that something will change in 4 days?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-13T23:17:06.463021Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,There¡¯s $4.15B left of ATM offering of common stock.,YES,NO,False,True,403.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T12:42:02.529569Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,1 dollar for 79 cents is a bargain,NO,NO,True,True,56.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:22:40.309384Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"For yes sisters, ""Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29"" is at 1.8c YES. 1.8! Why waste your money here?",NO,YES,False,True,2499.5772,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T23:33:26.710856Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,he bought today but when will he announce,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:55:18.001984Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It's a gambling website what did you expect,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T14:12:54.130546Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I have ran some calculations. Roughly $4000 to go until $100k.,YES,YES,True,True,969.0409,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T04:23:26.240198Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I put mine at 43c but unfortunately I bought at 61c. Not getting out of this unscathed,NO,NO,True,True,57.089,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-23T22:07:27.045582Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","bitcoin will reach all time high tomorrow, thank me later ??",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:44:38.450461Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Going to the Moon really soon...,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T17:51:07.020798Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I withdraw when I have taken $135,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,57.41,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T23:29:55.789239Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,The assumption that Saylor will stop doing ATM sales comes from the fact that MSTR announced a redemption of one of thei,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-26T16:55:57.180219Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Are you will losing more 63 k bro,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T14:08:15.737811Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How you regards holding yes are doing?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,890.345,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T22:46:47.478497Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I sold most of my no just keeping some no for now and yeah im gonna buy in on yes soon not yet tho,NO,YES,False,True,4.3097,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T13:03:47.469778Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,donda was delayed by 401 days but the coin launch wil be on time?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-02-03T12:52:47.879679Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,you might win this win time but on the long the guy is buying everything i have bought the no in the past and i have los,YES,NO,False,True,10311.1316,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T22:30:13.194074Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i've been browsing his page for over 3 hours now lol,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T06:01:48.093437Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,One more time with these assumptions and I'm pointing out you've been betting on a racist party winning the German elect,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T12:58:26.348157Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"To build on this point, it¡¯s also important to note that in all previous Strategy BTC purchases, Michael Saylor or the ",NO,NO,True,True,67.58,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-14T14:50:03.942053Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","It was a rough day for me yesterday, doc. And it isn't a career, more like an addiction",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:35:53.530736Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Its not about the money but rather the thought process behind it. You naively sold your no position and changed it to ye,NO,NO,True,True,5533.7285,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T01:35:59.653481Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"shut up already, we love kanye",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:38:53.709518Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I wanted to sell my no because I feel the downside risk for no is higher, one tweet can easily dump the no side, just be",NO,YES,False,True,4068.6382,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T12:18:09.135184Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"hmm, did aenews ran away? damm, wanted to see him lose big",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T03:37:50.079373Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,I told myself I wouldn't do this market again.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:22:03.434262Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,I have never seen a Car hater with a positive PNL,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T22:06:05.512113Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,GeorgeFloydFentanyl lost $10K on his yes positions and I¡¯m so happy,NO,NO,True,True,3120.216,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-13T06:48:17.338823Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","If you believe that neither 85k nor 110k will happen, you can swing between the two for max profit.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:12:32.841908Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Would you use the $200,000 to buy a new home?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,17927.37,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T19:26:54.086372Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,sniffingground is insider he go all in NO,NO,NO,True,True,300.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T18:00:50.740759Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BTC will never hit $100k by the end of November, 'maybe' it will be able to do so after Trump comes.. there is a big wal",NO,NO,True,True,65.2,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-11T17:07:32.244771Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,is anyone elses deposit taking forever? been 1.5 hours waiting for my deposit,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:57:20.581685Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,F3UCK Y'3LL 'YES' N3GGAS..... GIVING ME ALL THE STRESS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.... ILL DESTORY YOU GUYS 1 DOLLAR AT A TIME,NO,NO,True,True,4116.9017,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T04:07:30.051947Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",i keep getting cooked im betting on these walls holding and bitcoin acts like they dont exist,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-22T06:07:57.503709Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,the point is everybody knows they dont buy on monday. they buy BTC on weekday. and announce either 8-k or press release,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T13:38:41.281198Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,dont let the ye'haters win! keep buying the yes!,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-28T03:47:50.572782Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","Jews have never lost in thousands of years, they massacred Egyptians, Canaanites, Babylonians, Greeks, Romans, Germans,",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:12:53.115421Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,GAH DAMN give me 20 bucks brooo please i need to buy more no only 20,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,47.23,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-24T01:37:47.913471Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,At the time of my last reply it was 55 dollars *,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.41,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T02:48:06.906589Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,He lost $250k last week thats why he had negative pnl,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-14T15:47:33.337312Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Bitcoin is still over extended. It was up 40% in a week. You really expect it to do another 40%? We are going sideways f,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T01:24:10.465125Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Guys can someone help me? So if we keep holding until tomorrow and it closes in ""NO"" what's next? I'm new. What will hap",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2040.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T17:58:54.361398Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","yes, thats why you should buy some",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T12:43:48.732805Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Btc will be at 97000 at the end of november folks,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T22:41:22.248626Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","70k, 40k, that's just crazy how much people bet. Where do you get all those money?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:53:15.484146Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wall order is of ERASMAS, he started buying.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-06-30T23:45:24.737084Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Feels like they're never gonna stop buying at this point,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T19:07:51.324295Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bruh he literally said he¡¯s not doing a coin,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:38:32.991762Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"it's over, all no holders sold. I sold jk",NO,NO,True,True,500.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:12:45.773109Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"car with the psyop as usual, thats more certain to happen than the sun to rise let alone saylor to buy",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T08:54:30.763535Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow, can you lend me a quick half a million so I can vote no and make a quick $10K?",NO,NO,True,True,5003.9635,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:38:01.918964Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I¡¯m hearing reports a God candle imminent.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T17:29:56.131055Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024 ? I buyed no. Will Bitcoin hit $100k in Nov ? I buyed yes.,YES,YES,True,True,109.984,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-24T20:24:38.982112Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I agree. I hold BTC but bought No as a hedge,NO,NO,True,True,6251.2316,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:42:46.131739Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,im kinda sad i bought at 57 cents and then 30 seconds later kanye decided to tweet about crypto. i couldve bought at 30 ,NO,YES,False,True,56.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:48:03.456595Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He will launch literally last minute, he is a troll, he will make his insiders rich 100x chances are 0.3",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T06:58:26.767296Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Same posts before he is buying,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T17:30:43.590448Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Aenews got clapped on both sides of the market ??,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T04:21:17.050284Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thats not polymarket taking a fee.. that fraction of a cent is a fee of polygon blockchain which is being used run this ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:59:59.124295Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,See you degens in the march 7 market,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:35:39.726013Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Maybe because his last few tweets are also late?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:24:58.661502Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I am in the 99th percentile of racists - Sam Kessler,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T13:00:17.141408Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol my theory was correct. the whole idea that he only post on holiday was filmsy. his team was just chilling out on jan,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-12T17:21:15.120679Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",it can hit 90k but 105 seems too high for November,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:32:59.716935Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I read the whole thing lol. You bet blind? If your reasoning was that good you would¡¯ve dropped a lot more than $1k lol,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:18:15.418611Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bow to the King BowBow - he is break even now and soon adds another Million to his Account,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T08:33:02.192241Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can someone donate me 10 bucks i had my last 50 bucks and i want to put more on no,NO,NO,True,True,47.23,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-25T13:16:54.793137Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,I bought no so it probably will jump to 99 yes now knowing my luck,NO,YES,False,True,1.09,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T12:13:07.240118Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,¡° IM TOO RICH TO DO ANYTHING ELSE COINS PREY ON THE FANS WITH HYPE¡± he¡¯s aware he¡¯d be scamming his fans lol,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T14:32:41.389056Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",YOU WILL SEE JUSTICE WHEN I WIN,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-15T04:44:39.683114Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",buying btc right now is hella dump unless you wanna hold long term lmao,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:07:51.142016Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nah Kamala IQ is like 140. Trump 120, he's a smart boy but no match for Queen Kambullah Whorris. No disagreement with Ka",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T09:17:47.610764Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thanks BowBow for holding the yes holders % up,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T15:06:24.167032Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i heard about Polymarket a few weeks ago and i kept watching what is this all about. i decided tonmake an account to tes,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,100.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-01T12:01:38.782778Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,2PM and there is no tweet. GG No holders,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T15:30:10.240282Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hey everyone, for those of you feeling confused about what's going on, I¡¯ve been working in fintech, specifically in cr",NO,NO,True,True,1240.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-07T20:41:53.018761Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Polymarket has pulled me back in again, here goes 24 nights of watching the charts",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T12:17:40.232981Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,How do you know if someone is an insider?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:53:02.888718Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"he is gonna lose $100,000 like a retard",NO,NO,True,True,2518.6,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T14:02:46.406044Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",why are you against your own bets lol,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:54:36.409332Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We're pricing in no tweets, If he tweets because he's Kanye then they can just market buy and eager Nos will capitulate",NO,NO,True,True,575.5809,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-03T18:08:53.471317Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,lol if ppl read their investor filings they would have known they're not buying from yesterday. thats why i bought a lot,NO,NO,True,True,1499.4534,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:04:42.255819Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Sam kessler was the one to load up on YES with hundred of thousands, then he posted this article saying that it *may* la",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T08:20:14.541373Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin has seen many fakeouts at $50k and $20k, there¡¯s a ton of psychological resistance at $99,999 - people would be",NO,NO,True,True,15.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T00:04:05.284574Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Wtf are you talking about 5 minute new daily candle? Please explain. It reached a high point of $98.6K in the past 24 ho,NO,NO,True,True,5003.9635,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:10:27.927568Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,All this makes me more confident in NO,NO,NO,True,True,5320.89,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:21:28.794205Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Toss me $50K. I'll get you even on this market and you can chill for the night,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,966.6325,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-16T13:04:39.229201Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","Looks more picked 90k, I think 119k has the same opportunity",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-03T02:04:10.714944Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Metamask is quoted me 170+ in eth gas. ????,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-04T13:14:30.194414Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,saylor is worth 10 bil dorsnt care about insiders ¡­,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T19:04:08.270922Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"God damn no holders you are tough. I sold part of my shares to buy back cheaper, btc shot up, no prices basically still ",NO,NO,True,True,47.6979,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T08:18:12.452918Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Fuck you nigha you literally don't know shit you Jew supremacist,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T15:52:40.667209Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Says the guy with minus $1200 profit ??,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:56:49.829726Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow just bought into november 29th market. Yes is at such good odds it will 5x in a matter of minutes,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T08:20:07.524703Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Where tf u live to pay $134 for rent,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1046.8872,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:07:01.448936Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,u think random ppl buy at 67 cents with new accounts?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:08:40.690399Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,YOU COULD HAVE AN INFINITE AMOUNT OF MONEY AND SHE WOULD STILL BE WORTH MORE,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-26T15:08:14.983523Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","my apologies, i am not a native english speaker",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T18:46:21.718844Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",95k isn't hitting as long I hold.,YES,NO,False,True,0.456,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:46:41.599224Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I lost $4 on this market, very sad but now Im outta here. Enjoy refreshing twitter guys!",NO,NO,True,True,4.0109,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T14:42:12.364512Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Now you are the one who is stupid bro because you talk toomuch,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T17:29:32.253161Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Not for Kanye, but maybe for his coin launch team to get some free bonus checks!",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:29:17.039153Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"LOL i sold a bit, im buying back in",NO,YES,False,True,1846.3537,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-19T10:44:22.145817Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,@Car I hate red heads because of you,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T18:39:12.363939Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Don't worry bro I gotcha. I placed money 95k. I have the worst luck in the world as long as I hold 95k it will never hit,YES,NO,False,True,0.456,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T11:55:40.541729Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Bro It¡¯s not deffinitly but if you¡¯re no sure you¡¯re on time to leave and keep save, I¡¯m Betting because It¡¯s just ",NO,YES,False,True,41.06,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:12:43.023814Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I can't believe I sold at fucking 50,YES,YES,True,True,40.4974,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-01-31T21:55:18.453303Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,pat please get yourself together you can't get mad at me for calling you misinformed and not broke due to luck a day or ,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T03:45:58.214378Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,calm down mr money bags100 dollars is pretty high even for a good steak,NO,NO,True,True,9920.6484,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T18:44:38.534693Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow you should sell at 40, you can get $250,000, there is no liquidity on holidays",NO,NO,True,True,57.62,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T14:36:24.163888Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,That¡¯s why I bought more :) Just in case he doesn¡¯t,NO,NO,True,True,844.6362,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:58:15.218944Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Is this over at 11.59.00 or 12.00.00?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:04:46.825613Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me $1, i wanna buy some no rq but got nothing",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.73,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T21:18:38.880785Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I bought some lmao. Super illiquid market... I am not insider fwiw.,YES,YES,True,True,4100.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T08:54:38.168642Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,No holders come up with all kinds of reasoning just to avoid saving themselves the last 5 bucks. Absolutely wild reading,YES,YES,True,True,6453.0733,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-21T12:49:26.101531Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"Alright boys, 3rd times the charm for no. Strat had to drop stock prices by $30 to cover this buy, next set will either ",YES,NO,False,True,10897.4074,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:12:31.652031Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"I know you lost several thousand, but why not put $100-200 more into a NO. If it lands you get some money back, if yes y",NO,NO,True,True,116.77,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T15:10:16.235478Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Market crashing left and right. I¡¯m so glad I sold my eth so I could bet on this market. I¡¯m a genius,NO,YES,False,True,1824.1137,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T11:55:17.728228Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,in how much time are gonna know?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T16:27:19.687273Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,he made $60k and now doesn't want to scare people he knows Saylor has bought,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:43:51.144354Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Lets meet at 50c @Hasty-Whip, it either happens or it doesnt happen",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T04:41:12.981425Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this was my first bet on PolyMarket and i went small but a wins a win,NO,YES,False,True,59.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T14:37:37.998546Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"I'm always rambler, this name means something to me.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:15:38.780569Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I just found another article on CoinPedia posted by an Indian guy... He was paid $1,500 to post a press release saying t",NO,NO,True,True,104056.5858,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T02:22:57.920719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you bet 10 on current avg price 0.3cents you'll get 3333.33 shares and if yes is the outcome you get extra $3323.33. ,YES,NO,False,True,0.1,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T18:00:31.098413Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I will tip him 1 dollar once no wins he is fine,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,70.34,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-04T15:48:24.589968Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","Someone start buying yes, I want more but cheaper",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:53:32.053481Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Cooked how? ""Old Wise Man""? He bought 15k shares at 1c and 3c and sold them at 80c.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T16:27:35.203286Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"he has golden b@ll$ , his risk is appreciated by no holders even",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T21:05:06.708766Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"Not only that I went to the TOP ""Yes"" and he lost the same bet July 1-7",NO,NO,True,True,2263.26,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T15:26:15.482616Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,its true over and over again my conviction keeps growing that the decabillionaire spends his time reading comments about,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T17:27:28.288724Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","why do you guys think it wont get to $105,000 ?",YES,YES,True,True,3.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T15:42:34.095791Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BTC dominance trending down. Money rotating to alts.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:35:57.744182Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"LMFAO, i mean thats a massive W decision there ngl, but idts u will win this",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T21:07:54.676394Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,$MSTR ATM Update: Based on most recent 8-K ~$4.17B left in ATM ($4.15B to be exact). https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/statu,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4081.039,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-26T17:13:15.225712Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I wasn't tryna be toxic bruh im literally on the same bets.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:07:45.307353Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,omfgawd i can post comments again,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:51:11.182975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,if only u listened to me the last time,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T12:26:37.710472Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,I'll also be digging around LondonInsider for a bit--I suspect they've been retroactively changing their reports.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:26:34.694811Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"""Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29?"" -- 1.8c yes ""Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?"" -- 24c yes",NO,YES,False,True,2499.5772,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T19:37:48.289686Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",someone lend me $50k so I can buy No $95k,NO,NO,True,True,5545.8165,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:35:31.854994Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought his account and i'm gonna fake a coin launch. Why is Yes so low?,YES,YES,True,True,86.8895,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T08:54:30.763535Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow, can you lend me a quick half a million so I can vote no and make a quick $10K?",NO,NO,True,True,5003.9635,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:42:31.516492Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If the ""Insider"" is so sure, why isn't he buying all yes with his money right now?",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:15:27.183334Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"But like, earlier today article on coindesk said that coin is ready and now he says that he is only in stage of bringing",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:21:58.354094Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I mostly diamond handed, but I sold a bit too much at 33cish",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T06:30:46.251958Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"you can ask Chatgpt this quuestion ""Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? answer Yes or No"" chatgpt will answer no, if yo",NO,NO,True,True,145.6,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:46:59.277021Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,how is so much money in yes???,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T12:25:19.903982Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Sayler never miss to post about BTC,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:03:37.174707Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","so glad i bought more at 94.9k, easiest 2x ever",NO,YES,False,True,43.48,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-12-01T01:01:25.159085Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",HOW COME MARKET HAS NOT CLOSED,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:32:16.716588Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Would risking a loss of another $300-400 matter to you in order to potentially gain $10,000? Only you can answer that.",NO,NO,True,True,116.77,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:27:19.056236Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woah, i got a cool $2.76 to start with lmao, good going man!",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.7352,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:38:33.753915Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Well thanks to you I made bit of money there,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T16:22:43.422868Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",what people dont realize is that its the YES voters that are the ones who have to sweat. they have to continuously break,NO,NO,True,True,5545.8165,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T18:36:09.561493Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Welp I don't like doing risky trades but I bought yes. And got my drink. If I win I will get drunk. If lose I will get d,YES,YES,True,True,86.4056,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:49:50.834871Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If muh precious bullishonsol lawst a brand new BMW M5 series then what the f did Zyn lose?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-24T22:10:07.951052Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Hey man, all I'm saying is, you should take your $8k while you can cause I think with how crypto is performing this is g",YES,NO,False,True,500.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T12:10:47.895026Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,lol so they raised $584m for the explicit purposes of buying more bitcoin but when they receive the cash they suddenly d,YES,YES,True,True,23639.3842,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T15:15:03.009529Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,kimchi what are you doing? buying at 99 selling at 93?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T00:37:47.224242Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"So if I bet $10 and I win the bet, do I get an extra $10?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,16.99,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-23T20:52:26.884922Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,there has only been two time that this exact thing happen. Every other holiday he didn't post graph on Sunday so we all ,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T09:40:35.008309Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"He was actually on positive pnl until last week he bet on ""No"" On this same market. He bet $250k on this and lose all. E",NO,NO,True,True,1.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:49:41.874851Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@MiyamotoMusashi is a -$2,626.76 weeabo.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,500.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-03T11:49:24.570026Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,this man is sitting with $1.5m volume and -$40k PnL xD. He just gonna lose another money,YES,NO,False,True,1129.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:56:15.664633Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I don't trust any of the CFO info. No way to know when who was who in Kanye's enterprises, all too volatile",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:34:57.931374Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,thanks again i bought more NO for cheap )),NO,NO,True,True,2018.97,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T14:24:51.530766Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29 no trades are at 68%... do people think that alot could happen in 1 day lmaooo",NO,NO,True,True,38.1071,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:37:36.768973Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BowBow no matter if u win or loose.. Gotta give to u for those Titan sized balls..,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T13:36:44.106881Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,So glad to see Fujin turn around bratha,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T09:23:09.882902Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Tick tock, on the clock, but the party don't stop, no oh whoa whoa oh, oh whoa whoa oh",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T22:05:09.475847Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,So fucking retarded I lost $100 buying/selling no because this fucking bigger retard pushed the price up so much lmao,NO,NO,True,True,4798.3966,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T02:19:16.741144Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,whates getting scammed on the way up and then on the way down,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T22:38:29.703157Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",There is literally 1 trading week before the month ends and 2 days in that week the stock market is closed (Thanksgiving,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T12:34:31.087413Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Brother I was trying to trade in and out yesterday. Didn¡¯t work. I bought more ¡®no¡¯ shares back today,NO,NO,True,True,1721.9937,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:23:48.462895Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,when will that Saudi Prince dump $2 billion into the BTC market?,YES,YES,True,True,264.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T21:16:37.256888Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,MicroStrategy is expanding revenue by capitalizing on Polymarket trading opportunities with our Director Data Driven Edg,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:49:41.874851Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@MiyamotoMusashi is a -$2,626.76 weeabo.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,500.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T19:17:49.725005Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Bro it wont dip anymore, his crypto related tweets also barely had an impact apart from first day. Take your 35c for yes",NO,NO,True,True,5724.53,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-23T21:26:20.990372Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Car are you insider? I am just saying it 50/50 I got in at 25. seem good odds. if you putting down +70. you should be do,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:10:39.363421Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Is @bugoutmode an insider? He bought $1,016 worth of 'Yes' 10 minutes ago. His account was created June 2023. This is hi",YES,NO,False,True,100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:16:31.550901Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"looking at priceaction it might actually happen, such a crazy day",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T06:10:34.678214Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is Kanye you're talking about.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:13.240454Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"if we can just cross the $101k barrier, we'll certainly succeed!",YES,YES,True,True,264.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:33:56.462135Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",See you all tomorrow. Aint envying the 95k noers,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T23:33:16.412873Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"MicroStrategy can announce a Bitcoin (BTC) purchase on a U.S. federal holiday, even though the SEC's EDGAR system is clo",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,352.13,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T03:09:57.797334Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"His average transaction price is 56, and you? You threw 17 bucks in like a brainless gambler and still think you¡¯re mak",NO,NO,True,True,30.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-23T21:59:24.538691Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",I bought 5870 USD - BTC today... Thank you.,YES,YES,True,True,8937.0661,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T20:15:58.407487Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",dont need it because i got ????,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T15:27:02.622578Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,like nobody knows that Kanye is Ye,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T14:12:07.158732Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"what do you mean, it hedged perfectly. Down $5k here, up $5k over there.",NO,NO,True,True,4875.7871,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-28T11:30:13.982151Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Let¡¯s hope for some belligerent statements from Trump during Zelensky meeting.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T06:25:44.779986Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",invest 10k in no 95K and you'll get 40K soon.,NO,NO,True,True,1.666,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:25:33.951304Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,5% yes now???? Insiders are going to launch a few minutes before time ends. I knew it.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:59.559189Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your no's before it's too late. I am here for the people,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T12:40:18.288171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Don't spend your $0.66 profit all at once,YES,NO,False,True,969.0409,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:18:59.178307Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,mstrking may have to change his name soon,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T14:10:22.798881Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","sure they do,losers wanna lose",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:39:11.505436Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i sold 69k of my no shares until end of year, kind of regret it now",NO,NO,True,True,14366.748,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-02-03T13:45:13.871716Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,Who's gonna propose a res? 750 dollars,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,89.82,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:25:39.896902Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",I swear it was like 10 bucks away,NO,YES,False,True,1058.33,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T14:14:01.906118Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,because the news site itself is pure shit worth nothing,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-23T04:31:16.586209Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Seems to me bulls are getting tired, let's see what happens...",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T21:29:41.629888Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This market has attracted so many retards that hodl a position and think they knew the answer all along and they weren¡¯,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:27:29.398892Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Every second that passes is in No holders favour,NO,NO,True,True,408.6401,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T18:25:56.448589Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you want to buy yes buy cheaper at over 100k on the 29th,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-26T14:08:27.919454Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,I suspect it will be a small buy. no graph post but will 8k monday. so I am not selling sunday if no graph . Gl brother,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:36:24.100462Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You definitely know something I don'y, mind sharing?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T20:30:50.363708Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,does this mean YES already confirmed? why isnt market closed then? https://londoninsider.co.uk/microstrategy-will-disclo,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T10:29:30.498514Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin has seen many fakeouts at $50k and $20k, there¡¯s a ton of psychological resistance at $99,999 - people would be",NO,NO,True,True,27.18,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T09:14:30.131386Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Thats why its overpriced. But im pretty sure he will announce it soon. We both gonna lose our money. For me $1 is not a ,NO,YES,False,True,1.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T05:15:38.384491Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Yeah in NO holders all are accounts are newly created,NO,NO,True,True,426.4766,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T04:25:11.776544Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I mean the only reason to buy YES right now is to dump on someone for pennies more than you paid. I'm not bag holding t,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T05:47:12.315792Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@aenews2 after watching you rule cuck one market after another, there is something quasi therapeutic in watching you ig",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:30:40.767214Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"$15,136,263 Vol. So proud of this community",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,560.5604,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T23:34:16.999852Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wait a minute, it's 3:30 PM In LA right now, it's not even dark",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T20:58:20.821596Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I sold all of my 'No' shares that I bought at 28 cents at 90 cents. I made $1,606.06. Too easy",YES,NO,False,True,100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T22:45:03.774745Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If someone actually had access to kanyes twitter, i would post the coin just few minutes before deadline, so i could get",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T09:32:45.214018Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you're kidding me, i bought at zero point zero, base twelve, one eight six four",NO,NO,True,True,132.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T12:56:12.923351Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"finger on the button, if that dot chart comes out i'm flipping so fast you'll think i've been holding YES the entire tim",NO,YES,False,True,25024.2139,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-11T23:46:25.857577Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,im so happy i am holding yes shares! easy money,YES,YES,True,True,3296.4866,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T12:03:11.328049Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Why did Strategy choose to suspend purchases after Trump took office? The answer is far more complicated than it seems. ,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T23:09:47.296134Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I HAVE A BIG LONG UNCUT COCK I GIVE THAT SHIT TO CLEO3 ON THE DAILY,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T12:08:44.974242Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,People underestimating how long he could continue buying,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T10:36:09.690999Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,his exposure would be total of 200 million dollars ??,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:05:03.424573Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yo surely give me like a $1 to buy a dozen more no,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.73,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T10:10:18.847929Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,wait bowbow was actually talking in chat?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-04T14:53:49.337623Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,dont worry he's a german white troll,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T18:20:33.866985Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I had absolutely no idea what I was doing here but my $100 turned into $200, so thanks for that",NO,YES,False,True,19.3029,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-03T11:01:52.074587Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Although I bought it, I think there are many insiders on the other side. There are also many people who only registered ",YES,NO,False,True,350.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T12:25:43.662269Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,He won't break the weekly steak,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:42:24.748817Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye is a Nazi scum pu55y-ass bitch nigga.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:32:50.206495Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I took a 4000$ loss on polymarket yesterday i went almost all in on this trade to make back my losses hopefully it goes ,NO,YES,False,True,8828.6493,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T11:39:30.750692Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes like u said brother, but i holding full if he posted chart like a Sunday JAN 19. NO will automaticly go to 99, but s",NO,NO,True,True,307.02,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T20:22:26.319706Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,The yes holders trying to deceive everyone so they can sell,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:14:57.803489Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Man I trusted you until you said you,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-02T10:10:30.993142Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,you brokie you dont even have 28 k than better shut up,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-28T14:04:29.595187Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,good morning to everyone expect for people its not morning for,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T03:11:15.142246Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,When I bought No shares the prices of Bitcoin were around 98k-99k I think I dont understand why people think it will hit,NO,NO,True,True,15.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-22T12:37:19.259521Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,You¡¯re right. They definitely bought. Everyone holding No should sell immediately.,NO,YES,False,True,85.2875,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:03:07.330259Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Lmao this is pure non sense panic rn,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-31T19:34:15.504802Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,greg the retard hahaha dude from last week. don't listen to him and build a shitty narrative,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T08:31:30.986272Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Conclusion: While some market analysts and enthusiasts are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching or exceeding the $100,000 m",YES,NO,False,True,174.6129,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-02T18:06:15.668174Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,i wish polymarket make some filter to 1000 shares + on chat¡­ tired of this small brokies who talk all time¡­,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T11:30:52.691226Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I brought NO at $4.5 looking likely as we dip next week and make new highs in Dec me thinks,NO,NO,True,True,59.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:09:29.458965Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"if i put $200,000 at market price i will only make $22k profit. that is stupid.",YES,NO,False,True,6876.0182,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T19:37:23.539481Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I really wanna see how mstr will do this week,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-28T07:00:43.141656Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Well its been fun but its finally time to rev up those fryers,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T10:44:23.437295Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Tbh I don¡¯t think they are insiders in NO side,NO,NO,True,True,426.4766,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T04:49:22.101255Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Lol guys haven¡¯t you see just difference between chance % and price? They got like $0.01 on each side. 16% for yes and ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,808.7336,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T13:19:49.277068Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,YES holders really need a Saylor completion post right about now. It seems like the argument is the funds won't clear in,NO,NO,True,True,2577.1509,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T03:28:40.652673Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,what is the theory for his website being on the monday? Is this not just based on the ZY in yeezy looking like 24? I've ,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T17:08:56.421149Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Do you think it's gonna crash?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T12:42:05.293573Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,So do we interpret that hodl as he won't buy or just saylor trying to think of something witty to add to his dot post?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T17:34:16.756449Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",bro should not make finincial desicions,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T06:31:17.553602Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Wow, could've 10x if you bought No",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:16:36.943606Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,My goal is to get a $10 PNL by the end of the month,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4.212,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:38:11.954141Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We get the opportunity to short a scam pump to $0, what a gift",NO,NO,True,True,304.86,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-25T01:33:53.055727Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",i remember when bitcoins costed like couple of bucks,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:28:27.778352Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me a $1 so i can buy a few more, this is easy money rn",NO,YES,False,True,1.73,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:52:52.867204Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,traded the junkie rush for quality sleep last few days,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T18:04:45.901161Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Just a small correction to shake over leveraged longs... and back to 90K,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T17:50:39.051312Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",im belong with you sir ^^ i bought at 30 and sold 4000 shares at 10. and buy back again at 8,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,361.576,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T14:00:28.902002Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,any news where he will launch on? https://polymarket.com/event/what-chain-will-kanye-launch-his-token-on,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:38:24.803239Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yea only lost like 20 bucks on that. no big deal. trying to get a little in this at 33 idk if itll fill, need another fl",NO,NO,True,True,10802.3403,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:08:13.382482Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes please dont sell, buy more NO and fill my $40,000 order.",YES,YES,True,True,6876.0182,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T02:20:32.552039Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,if you bet $10 on what and at what price?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.1,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:14:29.761647Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"0xba2cb3168709d... sold 50,000 Yes at 68.0c ($34,000)",NO,YES,False,True,166.7112,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T16:36:15.366714Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yeah, no doubt Bitcoin will reach 100.000 dollars. I mean, have you seen the order book of btc?",NO,YES,False,True,423.8905,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T14:20:27.855002Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",they atleast make it and you dont.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:08:23.802679Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yo surely tip like $1 so i can buy another couple no,NO,NO,True,True,1.7352,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..82b9d111f73c1a5564aaa8d5fc905c2bb2d4a8e5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,481 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +522080,2025-02-22T01:49:56.564901Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,your name is jj shut the fuck up,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-31T17:13:42.823481Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,advice to both yall: no crying in casino,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:53:00.493959Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,YOU DIDN'T SEE THE EARLIER CONVERSATION SCROLL DOWN,hold,hold,True,True,4526.4535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T20:10:38.396717Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Feel sad for you man¡­ hang on! Better times will come ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,8430.1899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:25:14.024049Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Keep bugging him about the coin on X,hold,hold,True,True,15745.6369,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T07:25:15.805391Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"what a trend, i did not believe it, but100k come within few hours",increase,increase,True,True,2000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:19:49.360629Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Search it up. I'm not that much of an expert on crypto,decrease,decrease,True,True,502.4478,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T04:13:31.482378Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Nah im not, but you the figures on bull/sell are different when you actually go to perform action. Test it",hold,decrease,False,True,2201.2848,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T07:39:40.364164Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i'm not sure if that Zyn wigga is an insider or outsider,flip,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T20:00:00.211982Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,No he dont buy a cheick all wallets,hold,hold,True,True,193.21,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:48:06.992964Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Check the information for yourself,flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:48:00.463858Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",decrease,increase,False,True,6876.0182,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T11:58:55.223607Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Nah .. it was all just a joke .. good luck (:,hold,decrease,False,True,2029.1785,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:51:29.342633Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,aenews just made a million dollars from this site wtf,decrease,hold,False,True,322.1504,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:11:09.151775Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I don't know what is happening I need guwop's guidance,flip,decrease,False,True,6748.5574,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:25:24.245278Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,YOU WILL FINALLY LEARN THAT COINDESK IS NOT A SERIOUS NEWS SOURCE. THEY REPORT EVERYTHING JUST AS IT IS WITH ABSOLUTELY ,flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:49:38.896772Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,when are u gonna understand i am not that nigga?,flip,decrease,False,True,2518.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-07T09:50:35.496476Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,"Yes it was on June 2, look at strategy balance sheet, it clearly states last buy was on 2 June, so yeah if he didn¡¯t po",hold,hold,True,True,1.56,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:46:11.637029Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,All we can do now is pray fellow No holders. Pray that the people buying Bitcoing for 97.000 USD will activate their las,flip,increase,False,True,2058.6286,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T23:54:45.552318Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,bullishonsol is one of those dog nft clowns,increase,hold,False,True,3523.2708,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T15:27:52.684685Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It will just flatline rest of Nov,increase,hold,False,True,12.45,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T19:53:14.847734Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Why would he scam you, you dumbo",hold,hold,True,True,3.84,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:14:20.136821Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,WE DID IT JOE.... MERELY 45 MINUTES LATER,flip,flip,True,True,834.0537,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:28:01.658931Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,if ur trying to buy in more it matters,decrease,decrease,True,True,283.9539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:47:30.085557Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys I sold all my YES and bought NO because I saw this: Specifically, MicroStrategy will announce details of its latest",flip,increase,False,True,2518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T12:53:32.729877Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,If most of the comments aren¡¯t making sense to you check January 20th,hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,729.9736,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:28:00.806608Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,JUST IN: woofwoof9 is found to be an insider at feeding america. we appreciate your generous 35k donation.,decrease,hold,False,True,322.1504,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T19:00:55.041814Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,see yall in 7 days when we collecting the cash,decrease,increase,False,True,1092.2056,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T18:12:46.787694Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,somebody just gave me 800$ for free when sold me his bet for 4k,decrease,decrease,True,True,4003.0924,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:47:27.333443Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,looks like a birds eye view of the TIP of a penis.,flip,hold,False,True,6665.4972,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T01:17:06.002928Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Please Lord forgive me for my greed, forgive me for mistaking a piece for the puzzle. Please let Kanye tweet the coin la",hold,decrease,False,True,7997.7374,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:56:00.405271Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,He lost a bit on 29th Nov bets.. just sayin,flip,decrease,False,True,1066.08,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:17:39.827177Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Do you think hes doing the launch or what lol its not him. Its the team and I doubt they will launch when there is 0 vol,hold,decrease,False,True,15585.73,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T20:50:24.284472Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,@bullishonsol You will buy my shares at 1$ lil ngga,hold,hold,True,True,5724.53,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:35:48.872185Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,fuck harvard. They're a bunch of legacy/nepotism admissions,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T16:44:12.467194Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Great idea, me too will buy yes very soon",flip,flip,True,True,4264.0838,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T18:48:32.903947Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i'm saying that he is used to spread missinformation. also he claims he is Jesus or the next Michael Jackson? what the..,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T21:10:20.045282Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,GL getting to break even brother,increase,decrease,False,True,150.4805,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T18:26:46.860131Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Guys ,its not happening at least today. We can go back to our daily lifes",hold,increase,False,True,4264.0838,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:33:53.098961Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Fuck you kanye, you destroyed my mental health",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T09:37:30.354899Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If only. That would really save my hide,decrease,decrease,True,True,86.4096,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T12:20:39.475028Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes thats a right brother i undestand that, but dots is enought to ppl leave market with profit, we all know tomorrow he",increase,hold,False,True,388.0197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:57:27.257594Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This guy is creating generational wealth right there,flip,increase,False,True,0.3942,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T14:58:41.077131Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I think the only one true insider is guwop. He wants NO to be dumped, so he could by more YES from another his fake acco",increase,decrease,False,True,1034.999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:20:17.946798Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Does not even make sense to drop when most of his audience is asleep.,flip,hold,False,True,501.8415,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T17:50:45.313254Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"honestly, i don't think it will hit 100k until Decemeber at the minimum. It will only really go up sooner if something b",decrease,hold,False,True,104.7447,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T09:37:25.899456Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He will launch something, but not a coin. Probably new drop and trolled crypto bros with his tweets for more attention",hold,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:31:17.975867Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Why the second I decided to buy ""NO"" it jumps to 37???",flip,flip,True,True,0.3942,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T21:10:20.045282Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,GL getting to break even brother,increase,decrease,False,True,150.4805,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:02:58.129624Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The meatball devil is panic selling,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2722,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:44:44.969091Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@Guwop, what's your main account? I saw you sold all of your shares",hold,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:39:45.742503Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think u made the right play tbh,decrease,hold,False,True,38.9801,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T16:11:41.286358Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"If Saylor could announce the purchase any day why did he even wait all this time for monday, he needs the market open th",hold,increase,False,True,679.7017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T22:07:33.004369Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,But nggas prayed on our downfall,hold,hold,True,True,5724.53,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T14:40:21.962805Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,anyone who thought they knew how Kanye was going to act needs to rethink,decrease,decrease,True,True,10016.6186,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T00:18:33.908981Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,IN BOWBOW WE TRUST #PumpBitcoin ??,decrease,increase,False,True,123.7305,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:33:41.383533Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Data gathering websites say it's Chris McKinney, which one is it?",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:00:00.182462Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm sincerely asking again: is Chris McKinney the real CFO of Yeezy or is it Hussein?,flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T04:41:17.521422Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Yes! I can feel free money is coming to me,hold,increase,False,True,404.66,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:47:56.331403Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,all it takes is like 2 whales and 3 firms is all im saying...,flip,increase,False,True,1.05,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T11:55:40.541729Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Bro It¡¯s not deffinitly but if you¡¯re no sure you¡¯re on time to leave and keep save, I¡¯m Betting because It¡¯s just ",hold,decrease,False,True,41.06,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T11:18:48.584047Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,imagine betting against the insiders when even Saylor said some weeks you don't buy ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,160.65,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:17:51.216861Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Sam kassler is selling yes on his own article,flip,flip,True,True,3729.6222,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:31:41.263449Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,sell now and buy yourself a new rolex,increase,decrease,False,True,160.73,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T18:48:58.962831Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,The buy is coming I think the question with the 500k is if they will have enough capital for that many bitcoins,increase,flip,False,True,402.31,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T05:11:39.041527Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i already get 0 bitches so this changes nothing for me,decrease,hold,False,True,112.5356,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T13:33:04.498999Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"everyone's getting paid tomorrow, salary payments going into the pump machine",decrease,increase,False,True,219.4507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:40:49.882526Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,as soon as it goes above 31 except to see a sell wall of 2mil shares and then another buy wall for No ??,flip,decrease,False,True,52.6209,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T03:43:38.492938Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,As long as there is cash in my pocket I will never stop buying NO,flip,increase,False,True,27277.8575,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:29:32.702301Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bbave is an insider trader too, he's going to flip to yes on friday",increase,flip,False,True,2434.786,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T16:42:53.030005Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,why u back in i thought u sold,decrease,decrease,True,True,7722.9881,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T05:40:59.602733Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine him shooting loads onto a paper with a swastika on it?,flip,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:33:52.243414Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Your $8 will shake the markets up,increase,hold,False,True,2581.22,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T19:41:56.696731Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The best traders on polymarket make money from volatility, they don't care about the actual outcome of the bet",increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:26:44.811039Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Source: Me. Don¡¯t be an idiot and sell your NO shares bc if market manipulation.,increase,increase,True,True,220.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T11:05:45.802047Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,So i just lose money although i just bought ?,increase,decrease,False,True,618.46,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:55:50.563761Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"strong buy walls on no, NO COIN IS OUT",decrease,increase,False,True,98.1412,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T08:26:58.070069Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,guys i found kanyes meteora pool please keep bidding yes!!!!,hold,flip,False,True,1951.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:20:13.624881Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ngl the weekly bitcoin price ones have been fun too recently,decrease,hold,False,True,759.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T07:13:51.857383Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You gonna hack his account on friday or smth?,flip,hold,False,True,1846.3537,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:53:21.265344Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,IVE INTERCEDED WITH GOD TO PUSH AGAINIST THE CRYPTO THOUGHT IN YE'S HEAD,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-11T18:39:12.299972Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,wouldnt londoninsider post again incase they buy?,flip,hold,False,True,325.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-20T01:50:51.986875Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"The buy is def coming, I just don¡¯t think he will pull it off in 3 weekdays",increase,decrease,False,True,168.61,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T21:33:43.147442Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,The journey and the experiences we gain along the way are far more important than the final outcome,hold,hold,True,True,1831.2199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T21:07:05.931747Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Why u guys so interested in bowbow bets ? He do whatever he wants with his money,so stop all this bullshit.",flip,hold,False,True,252.6024,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-19T17:35:22.879394Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,it¡¯s because of insider buying on the yes side,decrease,decrease,True,True,394.3024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T16:23:19.397602Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,No exit liquidity for podgies. He is stuck buying.,decrease,increase,False,True,1606.7186,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:13:13.167441Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,AENEWS STOP YOU CAN'T DO THIS TO US. I THOUGHT WE WERE FRIENDS,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T12:55:00.943365Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,How can u even see it there¡¯s so many dots ????,decrease,hold,False,True,5203.1997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T15:21:14.564528Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Heres a tip, get more money and use another card",increase,increase,True,True,252.0047,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T06:26:32.992729Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Tip me 10 to get me on your side,hold,hold,True,True,4264.0838,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T20:59:39.249914Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"IF YOU'RE A SAM KESSLER FAN, FUCK YOU TOO",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T06:50:53.200794Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Where is the 8K filing? Are you yes holders scared yet?,increase,increase,True,True,12.7788,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:09:01.554502Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,haha man I laugh a lot with your comments,hold,hold,True,True,71.5485,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:39:25.128578Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If it's a rumor, at least publish ALL the information, why are you withholding information that is crucial to evaluate t",flip,decrease,False,True,3729.6222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T03:18:45.180065Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I kinda wish now that all of a sudden last minute it goes to 100k, just because of BowBow",hold,decrease,False,True,266.37,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:21:44.304704Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This reminds me of israel syria invasion chat when UMA decisions were live,increase,hold,False,True,560.5604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:28:18.724405Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Well many of them can jump now with great bags of profits, so still the plan worked flawlessly. My hat goes of to the hu",increase,hold,False,True,6086.1059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T10:00:28.219923Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It's true. I ran the odds and there's literally no way we can win any more.,hold,decrease,False,True,30336.6707,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T22:46:33.988587Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"jeez, the tesla guy is just retarted but the others are purely evil",flip,hold,False,True,740.0212,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T09:35:43.682385Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,My best working theory is that Ye is out here in the trenches with us. Any tweet he makes could generate him 100s of tho,hold,increase,False,True,30336.6707,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T12:05:59.143944Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"Allyaws the same bru, this market crazy manipulated",hold,decrease,False,True,7.93,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T06:05:08.430767Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Reading the Comments section is better than watch a comedy,increase,hold,False,True,2891.1667,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-17T02:32:59.975465Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,Unfortunately it¡¯s the other way around.,hold,flip,False,True,401.99,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:44:26.566398Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,fuck I can't handle this no more,increase,decrease,False,True,798.2032,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:55:46.053264Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Indeed , That's clearly a insider",increase,increase,True,True,111.6205,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T20:09:34.000567Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This retard can make more off of a Tweet than he can make working for coindesk for 10 years straight. The economics don',hold,increase,False,True,30336.6707,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:04:54.467903Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I think maybe us talking about him is only egging him on. Maybe we should focus on the real winner here, @thebtcbear who",flip,hold,False,True,8126.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:05:37.156783Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm mixed race (black/white/native american) and I have a white girlfriend. Most of my sexual partners in my past are wh,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T22:21:06.553054Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,'yes' holders and traders just keep getting duped https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1894149826805149884,flip,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:58:14.722286Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I am never ever reading the replies to kanyes tweets. The winnings of this bet wont cure the cancer I just got.,increase,decrease,False,True,744.6954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T15:40:31.602014Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bro you get 1,2 kkkkk but have fun with it",hold,hold,True,True,47.23,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:19:09.128499Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,but 4% to reach 100k is far different from 4% to reach 96k,increase,hold,False,True,135.61,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-07T15:01:07.591817Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,"Actually bet is something else, it¡¯s a window of buying again till 9 June, and MSTR already purchased 705 btc on 2 June",hold,increase,False,True,1.56,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-03T19:59:17.570378Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"https://x.com/saylor/status/1940841509575946649 ""Im going to buy top forever!""",hold,increase,False,True,235.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:33:24.501779Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,What is your favorite Kanye's song?,flip,hold,False,True,1234.8645,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:31:27.463193Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ngl this is the funniest comment section I've seen on this site,increase,hold,False,True,649.12,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T12:47:34.548683Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"not even close to truth, announcement just needs to be on widely accepted public outlet such as SEC (closed monday) or B",decrease,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T18:20:33.866985Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I had absolutely no idea what I was doing here but my $100 turned into $200, so thanks for that",hold,decrease,False,True,19.3029,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:56:59.162282Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Never a shortage of retarded drama here,flip,hold,False,True,14178.6337,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T05:41:34.367981Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,OMG WE JUST BROKE THE 85C WALL. THE NEXT RESISTANCE IS 95C,flip,hold,False,True,1824.1137,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:34:45.861204Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The ***exit liquidity*** is buying,flip,decrease,False,True,3729.6222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:59:45.610845Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""Back in 2009, the folks over at OKCupid culled through the site's data and similarly found that race played a big role ",hold,hold,True,True,110.004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:14:35.736839Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ANYONE CAN FAKE AN EMAIL ADDRESS THAT SHIT IS EASY ASF TO SPOOF,flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T04:19:32.745714Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i cancelled the sell order now.,flip,decrease,False,True,2834.9686,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:46:44.811724Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i said i changed my mind after doing more research.,flip,flip,True,True,2518.6,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T14:07:51.123788Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"guwop just doesn't want you to get rich, think about it",increase,hold,False,True,1034.999,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T22:04:07.915903Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"i also think that, i also think there is no insdiers. but ppl telling how dalailama is insider, podgies is insider and n",decrease,hold,False,True,235.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-17T22:04:15.909378Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Its really 50/50 odds in crypto the market can just skyrocket or collapse at any moment,hold,decrease,False,True,331.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T09:19:03.507743Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"He hasn't announced when he will buy yet though, that's the thing. We have an entire trading day to see, starting in a f",hold,decrease,False,True,165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:52:30.083201Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"btc mooning, soon ATH so he is buying even on weekend. hahha",flip,increase,False,True,2029.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T17:08:38.092527Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I am not deying that it will rebound a little, but to think it hits 100k after the fomo is beggining to die out is wild",decrease,increase,False,True,129.4262,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T09:09:52.528196Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"im buying more no, its on sale",increase,increase,True,True,216.78,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T16:19:53.709855Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Ye needs to tweet so I can go big,flip,hold,False,True,12427.4037,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-18T16:42:16.037438Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Same thing I¡¯m thinking the same. They bought on the 9th and 15th of this month. Why would the turn around and buy more,increase,increase,True,True,24.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:28:10.748828Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"any chance of btc coming back up to 98k over the weekend, 5 - 10% ?",decrease,decrease,True,True,3510.0479,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T11:58:28.268538Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,5 days left on this shitshow and somehow you can still get 2.5x your money for betting on it won't happen,hold,increase,False,True,30336.6707,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T21:10:00.752185Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Yes but im right in the end dont u think so ? Everyone does whatever he wants with his money and in the end he still can,flip,decrease,False,True,252.6024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T04:24:02.536657Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bro. 2800 usd is like 8 month avg indian salary. Sell now and live another day,flip,decrease,False,True,1824.1137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:27:53.751906Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,stop believing and know instead,flip,increase,False,True,3683.2722,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:22:53.786032Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,his next tweet makes or breaks this market. good luck nobros,flip,decrease,False,True,121.7912,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T20:27:46.837097Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"If a guy called Dave Smith changes his name to Jack Smith, then buys a house, the house is in Jack Smiths name not Dave ",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T10:45:53.165925Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"my dad works for nazi west, please expect nazi coin in like 2-3 business days, go buy some yes and make millions, this i",hold,flip,False,True,131.8231,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:34:02.547991Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I really wonder who the real CFO is. is it Hussein?,flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:08:55.407079Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He followed some random account,hold,hold,True,True,5533.7285,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:15:20.295506Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"4% away and a 70% chance of not happening? Do the math, yes is about to explode",flip,increase,False,True,273.5393,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:05:45.829363Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Just wanted to thank all, It's latenight/morning in Aus so I need to cash out majority of my yess positions and sleep, w",flip,decrease,False,True,167.8419,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-04T17:55:27.855429Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,But even if they got paid for misinformation what would anyone get out of it,decrease,hold,False,True,5655.3276,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T22:01:19.900554Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,Presidents' Day: February 17 (Monday) the holiday is on monday but saylor announce in monday what he has bought during l,decrease,increase,False,True,35.24,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T18:13:35.254849Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"well i mean as long it's not too much money for u, fair enough.",flip,decrease,False,True,14.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:41:44.779287Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Been here 2 months this comment section is the best so far haha,decrease,hold,False,True,595.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-23T21:41:08.044246Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"on Monday you will lose your fucking money and u know where will come, TO NO HOLDERS HAHAHAHAHAHAH",increase,increase,True,True,307.02,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:26:41.400676Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,all guys who sold at 15 cents are now rebuying after expiriencing massive panic :),flip,increase,False,True,2029.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:10:30.244428Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yes Ye, keep talking about lauren pisciotta for a few more days",flip,hold,False,True,149.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T17:38:30.808273Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Why did you see it and still hold it,hold,decrease,False,True,902.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T07:54:30.857237Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,https://polymarket.com/profile/0xe18cf27e93bdb34ca49e60f7b59df0496c2cd678 I hope this loser's mom gets taken advantage o,flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:46:06.050654Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,ur mom told me to sell after i cummed in her,flip,hold,False,True,2518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:33:54.530584Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Oh Shit, he just launched its over",increase,flip,False,True,3526.0437,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:08.023809Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,you know something how market works stupid? dollar trade against BTC so war is bad for dollar that means dollar goes dow,hold,increase,False,True,26.43,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:48:04.668535Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i explained in another comment,flip,hold,False,True,2518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T03:26:16.581864Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Fair price is gonna drop for every day that he doesn¡¯t launch a coin,flip,increase,False,True,277.9544,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:36:23.793929Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,hes not gonna tweet sell while u can,decrease,increase,False,True,9.38,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:36:46.955041Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SAW YOU SWITCH FROM SCHIZOKANYE'S ACCOUNT IN REALTIME,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T13:44:37.903539Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Thank you. Can you tell me what's special about them? (if it's hard for you, don't say it)",increase,hold,False,True,36.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T10:30:29.462166Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"noers you should totally sell, i'd love to buy the shares for cheapers :3",decrease,hold,False,True,38.1071,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-11T21:14:22.502025Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"Last week the rules were the same and nobody disputed it.It was resolved to ""Yes"",so no worries.",hold,hold,True,True,691.3282,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-03T18:08:53.471317Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,lol if ppl read their investor filings they would have known they're not buying from yesterday. thats why i bought a lot,decrease,increase,False,True,1499.4534,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T05:59:14.830618Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't Drop That Thun Thun Don't Drop That Thun Thun,decrease,hold,False,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T10:07:47.635908Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Some ppl dont understand that wen he posted dot chart means nothing, market resloved when he posted PURCHASE",increase,hold,False,True,318.02,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-21T14:35:57.838029Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Yet not a single yes share to your name. Makes you wonder what your motives are.,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T19:07:35.049754Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It won't happen. Every second that passes is in our favor.,increase,increase,True,True,2843.8682,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:17:17.692341Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Top NO holder Zyn sold his all shares 10 mins before the Zendesk post and none of top yes holders fresh accounts are sel,decrease,flip,False,True,358.86,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T17:43:48.449719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,The usage of 'ROTFLMAO' is dumb. Sorry for your loss btw.,flip,decrease,False,True,717.5225,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:21:13.802772Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I agree. It's like those people that make YouTube courses on ""How to get rich"" and then sell courses. If they had a Get ",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:28:16.541367Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Plot twist: Bowbow has multiple accounts (¡°yes¡± and ¡°no¡±) and is an official market maker on Polymarket,increase,hold,False,True,999.73,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:57:20.581685Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,F3UCK Y'3LL 'YES' N3GGAS..... GIVING ME ALL THE STRESS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.... ILL DESTORY YOU GUYS 1 DOLLAR AT A TIME,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T15:01:26.327393Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Polymarket is worth over 80 million, I don't think they care about this shit",increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:36:31.060769Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,can we stop giving rug pullers exit liquidity. what are we doing?,increase,increase,True,True,10468.0497,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:11:30.587534Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"imagine you were Ye right now, I'd have the time of my life",flip,hold,False,True,744.1725,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-19T19:27:49.044316Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"THEY BUYED CHECK NEWS ..........,............????",increase,flip,False,True,350.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T18:57:19.517694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm all in. No standing back, no backing down. This is where legends are made. STAND YOUR GROUND! HODL!",increase,increase,True,True,2075.6963,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:56:47.324157Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,A friend from my high stakes crypto trading circle knows I m in this mess,decrease,hold,False,True,4264.0838,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-04T05:25:12.276863Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,cant believe somebody can be so low on IQ as Fujin,increase,hold,False,True,5403.8271,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-07T16:15:34.270077Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",110000 easy. trump inaugeration will make it pump,hold,increase,False,True,19.99,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T21:15:33.642732Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You bought NO at 82 and are telling others about 'bitter failure',hold,flip,False,True,969.0409,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T18:02:06.821692Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"that would be fine for me... i'D sell at 99k or 99,5k",flip,decrease,False,True,14.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:28:33.920015Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"People are panicking a bit too much. There can always be delays, and that's decently likely given the incident with Mile",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:21:24.020531Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I am just on here for fun. If I wanted to all in degen bet on these markets like u my buy ins would be much higher.,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T17:14:08.170281Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Back down to 93k, lets keep the downward momentum going ??",decrease,increase,False,True,43.48,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T06:13:54.142009Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"sounds great but I hate to break it to you, not one thing you've said is new. So thanks",increase,increase,True,True,7733.4081,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:06:56.053575Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,imagine explaining this market to your mom when she asks where your college fund went,flip,decrease,False,True,166.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:58:22.921038Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,The 500K market would be trading at 80 cents for the NO shares if that was the case,decrease,hold,False,True,5902.1092,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:34:25.372588Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,he already owns 12% of this market,hold,hold,True,True,264.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T10:08:32.889772Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"If anyone wants to buy no on yearly, i am selling there quite a lot near mid price, so if anyone can buy would hrlp mr o",increase,decrease,False,True,14366.748,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T21:00:53.240272Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I mean someone has to pay the bill...,flip,decrease,False,True,1952.7519,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:39:06.681504Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"no resistance until mid 40s, one whale buying no and it's a huge bump, and that's just with technical analysis. Ye isn't",decrease,increase,False,True,91.1412,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T15:22:32.969038Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,100k on no? bro he is gonna announce the buy tomorrow,hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:34:25.711777Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This doesn't even make any sense. There's what, ~130 hours even left on this thing and if he doesn't launch specifically",hold,increase,False,True,30336.6707,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T10:10:58.386597Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bowbow wallet if you want ti have an idea of how much he is rich : first 0x1929347E025D4F5F8D6B2Bd2261e2f4EfcAcd215,decrease,hold,False,True,39.1077,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:25:53.759521Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,next week? he may do it Friday next week if so that is the 28th so risky,decrease,decrease,True,True,2.7352,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T13:36:39.191923Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Man stop the cope. Nobody living paycheck to paycheck is dumping their salaries into something that has doubled in the p,decrease,increase,False,True,24.5979,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:02:25.692938Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Why is someone buying ""NO""? Statistically, MicroStrategy has always bought $BTC on Monday after the post, that¡¯s a fact",hold,increase,False,True,4999.6935,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T12:33:31.860638Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"Well, I think this week he'll skip",hold,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T11:46:00.996329Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,No holders ready for Saylormoon posting the green dot BS posting?,hold,decrease,False,True,3550.2354,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T18:56:18.651442Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I mean maybe. But if you to coinmarketcap and you roll back on a year by year basis almost every year, in the last week ",flip,decrease,False,True,86.9792,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T08:58:36.806295Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Just break 96k already omg, I want my shares back cheap",increase,decrease,False,True,60.2237,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-22T05:55:07.399339Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,Can someone explain why the essence of the question and the explanation below differ in meaning? Specific question: will,increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:44:43.264915Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Dump those bags, 30 i the highest no goes",decrease,flip,False,True,64.2094,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T09:36:43.368928Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye is a triple A artist, not some lowlife like adam22 or the hawktuah girl",increase,increase,True,True,1577.4885,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:03:00.673181Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,zoomers when reply has 13 words,decrease,hold,False,True,36.97,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:16:15.959081Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,what does that even mean daddy,decrease,hold,False,True,322.1504,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:47:17.738559Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yeah obviously it¡¯s not ideal that he acknowledged that he might wants to drop a coin, but he gave key information on t",flip,decrease,False,True,3729.6222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T16:15:55.644295Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bro I think you should de-risk... Isn't 1k usd like 1.5 million rupees in india?,flip,decrease,False,True,1824.1137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T19:50:16.613429Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,I wanna be the biggest genius or the biggest retard let¡¯s do this,increase,increase,True,True,1013.0962,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:49:34.461558Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He might troll everyone for attention and drop something else than a coin,hold,decrease,False,True,5320.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T11:19:59.519663Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Both keykash and tenable-dome officially out! Who¡¯s the retard?,flip,hold,False,True,2446.2921,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-05T13:49:48.140609Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Definitely not he was wrong in if mstr gonna buy more than 200 plus btc market check,decrease,increase,False,True,5163.0436,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T16:37:14.745133Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"if it happens, it'll be months from now",decrease,increase,False,True,8020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T10:43:24.073039Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,For sure It¡¯s a good bet to put some good money,increase,flip,False,True,27.56,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:23:18.137948Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Zyn lost 100k, that's the equivalent of 7 years of hard labor on minimum wage",increase,hold,False,True,166.1765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:46:05.828817Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,getting tough being a notard rn,increase,decrease,False,True,349.94,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:37:07.493541Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Coins are like overhyped collections which prey on they fans. And you really think he launches,hold,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T12:57:38.882766Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Seriously, I don't understand how such stupid people can have such a large amount of money. And who am I talking about -",increase,hold,False,True,1034.999,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T11:03:16.511687Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I would just like to acknowlege bow bow- The number 1 Donater to us no holders!!!,decrease,hold,False,True,23.1507,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:59:06.649064Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Also, why are the ""YZY insiders"" leaking so much information to the news reporter, all about tokenomics, the supposed to",flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2722,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T05:10:27.460318Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",When you spend all your doe on all the other btc markets before seeing this one... ??,hold,decrease,False,True,0.76,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T21:32:32.798125Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"110k, saylor buying all btc on Sunday, no etfs today so only one logical buyer.",flip,increase,False,True,21.5279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:29:39.874003Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"so thank you all for the dopamine shakeup, see ya at Sunday",flip,decrease,False,True,7716.2955,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T15:10:16.235478Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Market crashing left and right. I¡¯m so glad I sold my eth so I could bet on this market. I¡¯m a genius,flip,increase,False,True,1824.1137,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:52:47.840451Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,So they yes guys including me might be cooked xD,hold,decrease,False,True,3.84,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T21:08:45.124823Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,think its fine as my best knowledge is in hiphop and heres often hiphop genres and if u look at my activity i made nice ,increase,hold,False,True,4.9284,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-15T21:55:09.660019Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I just talked to the team, they are doing it today",hold,flip,False,True,57.12,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T23:17:42.687957Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Our hero BowBow renamed itself to BuySell. Still a hero!,decrease,hold,False,True,256.2004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T03:24:56.401301Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,But we don't celebrate thanksgiving here in the East,increase,hold,False,True,54.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:20:59.309835Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"thats actually march 2nd. if your going to scam, be better",decrease,hold,False,True,18526.2828,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T12:07:41.993413Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Omg bro i told you to quit few days ago you are too emotional for this,decrease,decrease,True,True,5533.7285,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T06:35:19.008997Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,wtf btc doesnt trade on the US market??,hold,hold,True,True,301.5004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T18:56:01.742961Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Plot Twist: He's secretly designing a coin logo,increase,hold,False,True,1285.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T02:03:54.352923Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Y? You guys more convinced that he will launch today than yesterday?,flip,decrease,False,True,1824.1137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:44:27.495059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"i'm famous enough to talk to Kanye personally, i'm actually pulling the strings on this whole operation",increase,decrease,False,True,67.2206,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T17:45:57.956994Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Well personally it was just a value bet. He def could purchase by Monday, but getting 7x my money for any slight error o",increase,decrease,False,True,402.31,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-26T13:55:49.774109Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,@pbshine are we fucked actually and we trapped not NO side ?,decrease,decrease,True,True,25.45,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:07:16.149847Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Coindesk famous for unreliable articles, wrong CFO in email, launch delayed cause they got to know about Libra appearent",increase,increase,True,True,3611.57,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:17:53.974882Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i have information that you will want to know,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2722,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:47.643131Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"December is still far away, the problem is that the buying power will be soon gone",flip,decrease,False,True,2271.7461,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T19:52:24.940657Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,He just bought 1500$ of yes share,hold,increase,False,True,24.5999,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:48:47.207041Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"hussein, can you accept my calls",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T16:57:12.298683Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Anyone who thinks Ye is going to launch a coin before the deadline obviously hasn't waited for one of his albums before,hold,increase,False,True,958.43,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T00:10:48.555149Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your NO guys i will be happy to get it for $0.25,increase,decrease,False,True,573.7366,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:19:26.324267Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"RonDeStantis is either simply exiting his No position, or is about to switch sides to Yes.",decrease,decrease,True,True,3322.7214,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:26:54.366079Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Lol still buying 'yes' eh.... GO FOR BROKE,flip,increase,False,True,834.0537,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-25T16:03:29.194011Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","Whatever drove you to this decision, tap into it and use it to stay. You thought it won¡¯t drop below 85 k - stick with ",increase,increase,True,True,5219.0828,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T18:57:22.162976Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I deposited 50k a few months ago I already had a good amount,increase,hold,False,True,5340.6481,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-11T12:29:58.519189Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,If I get any goldfish I will name one of them Pat,hold,hold,True,True,768.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-27T18:52:43.490339Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Do yall think i'll hit 100K this week?,hold,decrease,False,True,550.117,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:50:12.289639Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Microstrategy just mass sold ALL their bitcoin. What does that mean for this market? :/,decrease,decrease,True,True,9.38,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T17:21:16.781554Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,tomorrow 95k support and pusing 97k-98k again,flip,increase,False,True,2299.3251,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-31T18:51:00.611812Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I am finally in profit. I am the greatest gambler of all time. Thats the most important rule for gambling: if you are lo,hold,increase,False,True,273.032,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T22:56:15.651692Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"those odds are cooked, if it was 35c i would have bought",increase,decrease,False,True,52.6209,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-23T04:55:43.919036Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"nice to meet you, I'm your duke of the retarded kingdom",increase,hold,False,True,8.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T19:56:03.021336Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,EVERYBODY PLS REPORT THE LINK BELOW IT'S A SCA,increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:03:53.878409Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can you send link or just nothing happened,decrease,hold,False,True,79.94,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T10:10:03.364989Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"Honestly i dont trust that london insider who know maybe is true but i dont care, last time he bought very big amount pr",decrease,decrease,True,True,47.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T14:27:28.173489Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,I have built my position. Will be so sad if I lose,decrease,decrease,True,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:42:20.145922Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yes he is i can attest to that -outcast2024 from Harvard,decrease,flip,False,True,759.75,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T21:51:28.172389Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,not a good payout so no but yes holders been saying wait till tmr big day tmr and stuff like that for like 4 days straig,decrease,increase,False,True,17.1503,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-21T12:09:20.293053Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Small buy??? Bro thats nearly $1b worth of BTC lol,hold,hold,True,True,10897.4074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:37:40.096067Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Watch the weak hands buy back no on tuesday or wednesday,hold,hold,True,True,5320.89,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T23:50:47.930885Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,is it comming tonight or friday night?,increase,decrease,False,True,5.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:27:01.977727Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woke up at 20cents and had a minor heart attack, glad I didn't panic sold in sleep drowsiness",decrease,decrease,True,True,744.1744,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T13:34:12.738584Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm a new and I would like to ask top holders if it makes sense to use limit orders? and how do you use them?,increase,hold,False,True,36.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T12:06:13.771166Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,I thought for sure this was the week lol,hold,decrease,False,True,2487.8602,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:29:03.797593Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-100000-on-november-29/bitcoin-above-100000-on-november-29?tid=1732652882617 L,increase,flip,False,True,77.3518,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-11T16:48:46.603453Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,Microstrategy may need to sell some of it¡¯s BTC in 2026 - anyone else confirm if this is legit article?,increase,decrease,False,True,36.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T00:48:14.089252Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,thank you sellwallsan for moving your price point,hold,hold,True,True,1167.2753,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:52:41.870949Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"just imagine, a secret coin. which all of Twitter and the polymarket already know. very true. It's just psychology, no i",decrease,decrease,True,True,7235.835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T08:11:08.616287Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't Drop That Thun Thun Don't Drop That Thun Thun,decrease,hold,False,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:35:46.027358Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,fr if all goes well im going on a short vaca,hold,hold,True,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T06:17:20.504593Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Is originalZyn trying to see how much he can lose in this market? Impressive!,decrease,decrease,True,True,278.5352,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T15:10:42.627119Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I'm glad to be part of the NO team, congratulations guys!!",decrease,hold,False,True,298.5634,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-16T18:24:37.003194Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Na bro, the runs not over, next run within 24h.",hold,increase,False,True,8.9631,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T00:25:14.848708Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"100% no launch tonight based on his tweets. Also he will go to sleep soon, meaning NO will gradually go up only througho",decrease,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T11:17:13.330522Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Well, I can buy and hodl at the same time right? As long as he doesn¡¯t sell he¡¯s HODLing so I don¡¯t understand how th",hold,hold,True,True,8.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:21:19.342356Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,and will smith... he hates will smith,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:08:30.313149Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I had a chance to buy in at 2.4.. got greedy and was hoping for 1.9.. lesson learnt,increase,decrease,False,True,2201.2848,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T15:36:53.519671Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He is the only one true insider in this market,decrease,hold,False,True,7573.2448,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-21T11:28:25.177364Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,thats why i say thanks for the money friend!,decrease,increase,False,True,303.16,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:34:23.379174Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,wait until yes holders realise they need 100k not 97 ??,decrease,hold,False,True,632.2521,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:19:32.518478Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Awesome thanks for clearing that up. Just bought 1 million N¡¯s,hold,increase,False,True,4294.336,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T01:54:21.155979Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Why cant I use emojis in comments while others can? (iPhone),decrease,hold,False,True,247.9764,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:48:47.144425Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,idk they seemed way too excited to make a few hundred from selling dog pics,increase,decrease,False,True,2434.786,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T09:07:02.750612Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"We will all know for future, we know how Saylor buying BTC we have max 3 hours from here to expect post, Saylor always a",hold,increase,False,True,689.7017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T05:57:08.141196Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,they are just making a new merch site because the shopify got banned,increase,increase,True,True,2125.93,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T11:06:04.867384Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Will the finsl payout be the same if i hold ?,increase,decrease,False,True,618.46,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T21:40:46.160617Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,man 6 more days of retards falling for kanyes trolling and believing he means any of this shit,increase,increase,True,True,790.8954,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T05:53:03.537513Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow is either a genius or a hopeless gambling addict lol,decrease,hold,False,True,1645.6836,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T21:08:49.563105Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,All these whites care about Ukraine but don't give a fuck about Palestine or the Congo. Whites only care about Ukraine b,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T12:27:15.988912Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,He buys almost every week. That's it lol.,flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:06:52.268966Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The retard below made a coin with 12$ market cap nobody bought your retarded shit,increase,increase,True,True,3526.0437,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T22:25:15.067292Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Seeing so many complete dumbfucks losing tens of thousands felt amazing,decrease,increase,False,True,1090.345,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T18:04:10.780467Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,top N has placed a fat sell block at 57,increase,hold,False,True,7730.6081,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-23T02:51:58.331074Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","more than happy to answer your question. If you look on the coinbase orderbook, you're going to see a brick wall of sell",hold,decrease,False,True,1275.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T11:49:08.837917Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"man, I'm trading here not fisrt time. I've seen a lot of people like u. And And they never won, even though they believe",decrease,decrease,True,True,7208.2108,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:57:52.587551Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You're not black, but even if you are, you're one of those self-hating blacks, that bows down and appeases whites",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:23:46.088709Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"I dont wanna say, i dont want other ppl to start buying yes.... but yes i know about 21 jan.",decrease,increase,False,True,6876.0182,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T22:06:42.022735Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,everybody thank aenews for the 90 THOUSAND dono,hold,hold,True,True,61.7794,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T21:04:09.201657Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Neither yes or no is a safe bet, it can jump really high, or really low fast",flip,decrease,False,True,2959.2699,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:17:38.153917Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,No matter what happens someone is literally committing a crime right now,decrease,hold,False,True,740.0212,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T23:43:18.092502Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"In sunday we will know, if Saylor post dot chart after 12hours from now, Yes will pump to 99c, if he post random post, N",decrease,hold,False,True,235.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T22:08:40.837844Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"free money, I think I'll buy the nazi t-shirt",increase,hold,False,True,160.73,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T15:18:46.397751Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Coin is launching guys i talked with insiders,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T03:19:21.338162Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Everyone talking about BowBow, but what about Circus?! Hes the real man of the people. Buying you out when Yes is high a",flip,hold,False,True,2058.6286,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:25:47.795151Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he transfered them to so called insiders,hold,decrease,False,True,435.3255,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:41:11.180062Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,20c at 94k few das ago 20c at 95k yesterday 20c 97k now 20c at 98.5k tomorrow ??,flip,increase,False,True,52.6209,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T11:59:41.502108Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I hope so too, we believe in him so much.",decrease,hold,False,True,17927.37,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:02:22.673177Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,All this is based on 1 article from Coindesk and Coindesk's source is this very weird email. Time will indeed tell if we,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2722,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:52:06.797264Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,what happened to bowbow not selling shares?,decrease,hold,False,True,10361.214,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T11:07:21.174409Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"i've seen many retards in my life, but alphax holds a special place among them",increase,hold,False,True,0.0001,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T08:20:07.524703Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Where tf u live to pay $134 for rent,increase,hold,False,True,1046.8872,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:48:56.268008Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,we are fine. thank the lord ??,flip,hold,False,True,2058.6286,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T13:50:52.324605Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"We are in retail trap, in few days comes panic sell to 80k",flip,decrease,False,True,18.8989,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T15:31:38.138752Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,good luck finding no at 30 again,flip,increase,False,True,18.8989,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-15T19:46:33.341885Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,if he posts a green dot tomorrow then i'm gonna be more retired from betting than RetiredDavis,increase,hold,False,True,23679.0856,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T00:10:32.717272Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I trusted in american polls, but I guess you learn from mistakes",increase,decrease,False,True,4713.7951,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T06:46:30.727356Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,the challenge ends at 11:59 pm ET,hold,hold,True,True,2135.79,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:57:28.705782Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Only 1% will make 10,000% PnL, other 99% will lose EVERYTHING",hold,decrease,False,True,613.18,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T11:02:22.400572Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye told me he is just pumping rumors to buy cheaper NO shares here.,increase,increase,True,True,510.8878,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:45:18.830016Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"quick! buy your cheap No's, the ship is leaving",flip,increase,False,True,2058.6286,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:53:27.404995Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He launched the coin... we win,flip,flip,True,True,90.0736,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T05:27:01.958281Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Had to top up with these nice odds,decrease,increase,False,True,19502.0095,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-13T23:13:42.342788Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"simple, he's not announced a new convertible note and now there's not enough time to get one done.",hold,increase,False,True,4132.1642,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T16:32:46.540725Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Whippidy Whoppidy! Your money is my property!,hold,hold,True,True,1765.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T12:23:03.823736Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"The last one was pre 6220BTC purchase. The latest one is post that buy. Still no evidence hes bought yet, but tracker ch",increase,hold,False,True,811.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T17:33:15.497817Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,YES HOLDERS I BRING GOOD NEWS! I HAVE JUST RECIVED WORD THAT ANDREW CAKE WILL PUMP BITCOIN WITH 6 TRILLION ROMANIAN SHEK,flip,flip,True,True,4108.94,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-23T04:18:33.746514Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,https://www.strategy.com/purchases there is no purchaces between 17 and 23,hold,increase,False,True,1.4996,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T10:30:00.412764Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I want to donate some money to the polymarkets charity,increase,hold,False,True,44.01,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:35:48.004788Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I will tip YES buyers a dollar for good luck just say hi,decrease,hold,False,True,6137.3629,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T07:24:36.844926Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,When they bough and say about it,decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:04:40.120938Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,That was the most obvious pump and dump I've seen in a while.,hold,increase,False,True,135.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:52:29.303184Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,they told me it could be delayed,flip,decrease,False,True,3.0787,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:57.098096Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,you retarted bugs playing against whale? low level iq mazafakers,decrease,decrease,True,True,134.4,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:52:14.477227Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"People are so dumb bow2 is a bot or market maker, look at the buy amounts lol. 0.38$ purchase? Haahah",hold,hold,True,True,3.84,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:38:05.358969Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Hussein is a Yeezy employee, not the CFO",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-31T15:09:07.085809Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Honestly a very large amount of shares doesn't immediately mean insider tho. By that definition you would also be consid,increase,hold,False,True,310.0208,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T11:17:06.259205Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Nothing wrong with L's- we ALL take em.... but what I dislike is the attitude. We all learn, but no need for the other s",hold,hold,True,True,174.23,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T20:57:36.338705Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Launching a blockchain could take a while, but let's be honest here: Ye has no idea what he's doing. Today alone he's sh",increase,decrease,False,True,349.94,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:38:44.452856Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I just got the coin early, it's pumping",increase,flip,False,True,3526.0437,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T13:23:54.595644Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,you seem to have forgotten him,flip,flip,True,True,12715.8105,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T16:56:48.954848Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Cheaper entrance points have arrived.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1599.495,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:56:15.231804Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,all it takes is one tweet for the price to go back to 60,increase,decrease,False,True,3886.6229,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:14:06.192083Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The end of the month is coming soon =),flip,decrease,False,True,23.8,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:50:37.212456Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bullishonsol is selling his YES. Dump your bags before it crashes,flip,decrease,False,True,12.5502,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T18:56:41.382794Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,where do you get that disinfo ? it's not stox lol,flip,decrease,False,True,39.567,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T16:43:14.455955Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"OMG its Sam Kessler again, guys its ggs. But I swear his credible sources said last Friday? eh they probably meant this ",decrease,decrease,True,True,13497.617,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T20:56:09.499644Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"n(A)z(I) someone get me Ye on the line, i got his AI company name",decrease,hold,False,True,966.6325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:12:52.429122Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,did you really got tricked but scum coin or what,increase,decrease,False,True,53.11,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:12:06.035887Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,@georgefloydfentanyl you will buy my no shares at 1$,hold,increase,False,True,5724.53,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T01:17:07.531762Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Supposedly, @barkmeta who bought the posting rights of Kanye's X account launched the Yeezy coin and rug pulled it. He p",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T22:10:22.112481Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Polymarket wil not create such a market.,hold,hold,True,True,4264.0838,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:11:35.794395Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You should see his what his potential win for 29th Nov is looking like,increase,increase,True,True,2201.2848,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T16:06:35.952984Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,All the time. See his activity. Averaging from few days,decrease,increase,False,True,90.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:13:31.991261Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,when this resolves to no i¡¯ll tip 100$ to a random gambling addict that comments in this thread,decrease,hold,False,True,759.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T16:32:24.384506Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","NOt that fast, these predictions are tricky... when price gets so close it usually revisits it... unless you fount the t",increase,decrease,False,True,156.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T21:12:49.482835Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I haven't lost money, the bet I am on currently has not ended and odds are obviously in my favour and close to my buy in",hold,hold,True,True,26.3264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T20:49:17.838049Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",doesnt have to be a full minute,increase,hold,False,True,1186.6251,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:34:56.883906Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Chris Mckinney... who are you in reality?,flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-04T18:53:22.518254Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"you know, the loudest ones are often the losers",increase,hold,False,True,3.04,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:33:16.825748Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"mhm yea fs, one would definitely sell 200k worth of positions instantly after the ""news"" broke that makes sense",increase,decrease,False,True,10468.0497,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T16:59:30.668749Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Last 4 times Saylor post purchase on same time 8:00AM ET or 14:00 PM europe,hold,increase,False,True,689.7017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T18:11:06.457131Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i know... 52w low/high, heads shoulders have some value but elliott waves not so much.",flip,hold,False,True,14.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:16:26.504149Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,thx for actually talking to us,decrease,hold,False,True,759.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T11:19:37.931645Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Let's hope MicroStrategy pays my trip to Japan ??,hold,hold,True,True,15.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:37:44.945125Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Setting up an SPV and being fully ready to launch in 6 days could be difficult, time will tell tho lol",flip,decrease,False,True,3729.6222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:36:57.452029Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How many people use indicators for trading? Do they really work to help guide trading?,decrease,hold,False,True,86.9789,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:46:11.775104Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"BTW, THERE'S ONLY 1 ARTICLE ON ALL OF THIS --------------- COINDESK.",flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:06:47.924202Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Join us.. you know you want to ??,increase,increase,True,True,2201.2848,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T19:05:20.519066Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Possibly last chance to get out and switch to No....,flip,decrease,False,True,1208.5753,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T13:32:07.279092Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Sell for who? No one is buying this.,hold,hold,True,True,0.9996,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-08T12:27:01.634583Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,"He post About bitcoin everyday, we¡¯ll see the results tomorrow!!",hold,flip,False,True,1.56,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-23T18:02:22.504826Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,The sale is meant to go through on 25th,increase,hold,False,True,83.69,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T17:42:02.639698Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I am thinking to breakeven, this is crazy volatile!!! wdyt",decrease,decrease,True,True,196.1205,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:37:49.885363Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,STAY OUT OF THIS MARKET!!! WARNING TO ALL PEOPLE CONSIDERING BUYING NO: STOP!!! INSIDERS ARE CASHING IN ON BOTH THIS AND,hold,decrease,False,True,72.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T06:24:53.336913Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I need btc to go down to 91k so I can more YES,hold,decrease,False,True,32.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T12:51:59.057044Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"If you look closely, you see the new dot.",decrease,hold,False,True,1720.3403,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T19:37:25.557199Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Buying more Yes in next 15 minutes,increase,increase,True,True,447697.4223,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T21:46:51.512871Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"dump: completed, retail trap: in progress, panic selloff: loading",increase,increase,True,True,722.4882,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T21:58:49.695603Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He¡¯ll cash back on liquidity awards, trust da plan",increase,hold,False,True,1093.8844,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T11:36:31.429641Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,True scares me as well haha but don't mind if my investment is lost. worth take the risk,decrease,decrease,True,True,51.05,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:45:40.908652Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,But you're a trump supporter though. Trump and Elon are nazis,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T12:16:32.407565Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Thank you all from my me and my other account day dreamer ??,decrease,hold,False,True,4220.3061,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:16:00.566851Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This market is too retarded for me ngl, fun to pay attention to though.",hold,hold,True,True,4.2684,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T23:51:18.539682Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,'NO' Holders BUCKLE UP.... WE'RE READY FOR TAKEOFF,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:50:32.380985Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wth is quaint mean? bro is making up words, trying to trick us",decrease,hold,False,True,4444.2472,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:34:49.100037Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye didn't even get to announce his own official coin before it got rugged,decrease,increase,False,True,22.0109,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:15:29.384523Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Crypto journalism is a joke man, imagine falling for a random ass fucking article",decrease,increase,False,True,1090.345,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-23T14:18:18.364154Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"26 more hrs to go, ready to get rich",increase,increase,True,True,1195.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:00:21.255275Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I notice that almost every small holder here has a very big mouth ??,increase,hold,False,True,999.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T01:14:41.051264Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,This market is totally crazy. Love it,flip,hold,False,True,166.7858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T07:44:02.837744Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Haha clock is ticking and less and less time and people buying YES , LOL ??",increase,flip,False,True,9.7,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T23:40:17.896041Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,Would be kinda funny if the bond bettors lost,increase,hold,False,True,1028.0962,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T16:10:22.198368Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",it¡¯s not over until I say it¡¯s over,decrease,increase,False,True,5545.8165,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T13:30:59.612354Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,True. I want you as my alies bro. Hit me up on discord @0xpareto.eth,decrease,hold,False,True,79936.06,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:35:12.691321Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Hussein, aren't you the real CFO? WHAT?",flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:29:34.630744Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"you would be correct, my bad, read the number too quick",flip,hold,False,True,4416.0467,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:10:46.338834Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,'no' holders that sold got scammed by j3ws,hold,hold,True,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T07:52:23.957209Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"???? ALERT ALERT ???? @MiyamotoMusashi is -$2,104.27",flip,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-10T10:02:49.481543Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Please Mr. Saylor, delay the announcement ;)",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T07:40:02.739321Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"im stupid and bought more usdc on coinbase with my bank account so it takes until the 25th to be transferrable, and im n",hold,decrease,False,True,1951.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:11:10.920567Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"still a chance for yes, saylor just doesnt care to post the chart for peanut buys.",flip,decrease,False,True,211.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:43:21.133417Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Iranon, im sorry but youre not Car",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:14:04.440605Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nope, even when adjusted for income blacks commit way more crime",increase,hold,False,True,2434.786,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:47:21.493706Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Market is sooo inefficient. This guy could be posting porn, dropping albums, dropping merch, going off on j3ws or millio",flip,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T18:50:39.912555Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It's thanksgiving I am not very hopeful tonight looking at the trade volume. But maybe the BTC will find some footing to,decrease,decrease,True,True,86.4056,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T11:52:46.754Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I've run the numbers and each hour that goes by gets us closer to the end.,hold,increase,False,True,30336.6707,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T20:34:44.718051Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Man a lot less gloating form the no bros tonight. I wonder if they are felling sorry for yes bros, almost like there sho",flip,increase,False,True,86.4056,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T12:49:33.760989Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Great, I made the right bet in time!",decrease,hold,False,True,298.5634,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:00:58.069497Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,if he doesnt drop on solana i gotta get a job bruh,hold,decrease,False,True,1951.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:53:49.294261Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,100k looking not so unreachable now??,flip,increase,False,True,2959.2699,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:40:27.729717Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Because he damages the chance of him actually putting out a coin every time he tweets his racist bullshit,decrease,increase,False,True,966.6325,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:51:39.451957Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Yes are selling and buying no currently,decrease,hold,False,True,502.4478,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T14:24:51.530766Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29 no trades are at 68%... do people think that alot could happen in 1 day lmaooo",decrease,decrease,True,True,38.1071,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:05:27.356718Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He wouldn't. Just don't make sense right now.,flip,hold,False,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-18T07:11:24.771681Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bitcoin will take more than November to reach 100k and remember, the higher the price the more people want to sell",decrease,increase,False,True,33.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T07:37:02.045654Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"migga = mexican, wigga = white, chigga = chinese, jigga = jewish or japanese. Any others?",flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T11:28:19.701235Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,"Yeah fully agree but I think the price isnt too bad, who knows he might only buy tomorrow",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T14:45:36.903523Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are absolutely correct. If Bullishonsole hadn't bought $2,000+ yesterday, I would still be holding my 6K+ no shares.",decrease,hold,False,True,10.8614,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:05:04.272783Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,As far as I can see a paid article means jack shit,increase,increase,True,True,714.5454,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:46:41.010217Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I just bought this no and BTC is already gaining steam again.,decrease,decrease,True,True,151.7359,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:24:44.644445Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I can't believe when I started this journey, I didn't think we'd win... we're gonna win.",hold,increase,False,True,1586.4206,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:29:10.793123Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Who tf is bowbow and why is everyone riding his d*ck,increase,hold,False,True,884.9976,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T05:31:33.765666Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","BTC really just needs to break 100k, the hype will do the rest.",decrease,increase,False,True,120.7114,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-07T12:32:33.483766Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"Well, they announced that they did not bought any, isn't this enough for the market to be resolved or it will be too ear",hold,hold,True,True,2802.97,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T21:04:59.687053Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"@lpmeteora84 stop messing with the price, take it easy",decrease,hold,False,True,4081.039,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-24T11:31:26.684069Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Guys I lied its gonna hit 105k. you should dump everything you have into it trust me !!!!,decrease,flip,False,True,56.3954,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T12:50:18.152747Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Saylormoon bought a lot this week,flip,increase,False,True,739.2423,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T21:29:32.197313Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,That's a whopping 6 grand to throw into the flames!,hold,decrease,False,True,1831.2199,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:55:37.293574Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"US is sleeping now, its black fryday, everybody is happy about the thanksgiving, it will hit 100k",flip,increase,False,True,2959.2699,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:13:24.226961Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Why have you increased your position so much in the last few hours? There are just over 3 days left and Kanye tweeted th,increase,flip,False,True,160.73,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T23:51:11.606057Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"They are selling dollars for 85c, cool",increase,hold,False,True,80.02,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T09:58:01.110228Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,this is a once in a lifetime bet depending on someone posting a x post while shitting,hold,hold,True,True,67.34,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T05:43:48.168091Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Would be hilarious if it actually hit today lmao lets see, good morning europoors",increase,hold,False,True,41.3979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:11:35.629787Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,i thought TIPS and pipi2000 were the same guy?,increase,hold,False,True,25024.2139,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T12:30:35.974309Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Still cheap right now 1 dollar for 78c,flip,increase,False,True,1721.9937,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T18:57:01.646844Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,every mstr convert in 2024 was greenshoed and oversubscribed beyond the green shoe by an average of 27%. Expect close to,flip,increase,False,True,2612.9247,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-15T13:52:16.770185Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",we all coming from the bottom boys,decrease,increase,False,True,159.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-23T08:25:55.246563Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",isnt no 105k just free? Ur looking at a resistance of over 1.4k bitcoins at 100k a pop. No way in 8 days that it breaks ,increase,increase,True,True,61.016,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T01:42:01.389784Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thanks for your reply. now i understand why everybody is on his ass lol,decrease,hold,False,True,315.42,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:52:16.541318Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Why aren¡¯t you doubling down on ¡®no¡¯?,flip,flip,True,True,0.3942,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-10T07:11:59.371049Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Unless you build a new org called MicroStrategy and buy it yourself and Saylor announce that your org buys some btc, the",decrease,increase,False,True,22.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T21:56:10.684977Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",You are about to have your cheeks clapped heavily :D,increase,decrease,False,True,369.6504,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T10:22:25.870462Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"its confirmed he will post it , slayor did this before as well",decrease,increase,False,True,7023.75,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T07:57:19.763801Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you say so mac.. only takes 2 seconds to see you are spam trolling chat with NO spam thinking its going to effect the,hold,hold,True,True,2201.2848,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T14:58:40.762047Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,And you know it and still have a negetive pnl ?? and if you mean mean me i never said that youre dumb,increase,hold,False,True,229.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T08:24:51.234189Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He ll launch a store or something its promo,hold,decrease,False,True,47.23,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:22:36.638465Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"lmaooo, the good old days in WSB",decrease,hold,False,True,60.713,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-23T12:14:50.812204Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,I hope saylor cuck dies man. Wtf is a 245 btc buy,hold,decrease,False,True,76.5297,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:09:13.812234Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"TLDR, no is now cheaper for the time being. yes, kanye will drop a coin. no, it will not drop in february. theres too mu",decrease,increase,False,True,12247.56,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T16:14:24.100436Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I am your GF now, BUY MORE NO'S",decrease,increase,False,True,4444.2502,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T04:33:53.715452Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,No here's the link to his X account : https://x.com/kanyewest,decrease,hold,False,True,288.8638,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:53:51.854543Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,im sorry but at least i HAVE money unlike you,increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-19T21:07:04.027112Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,There's a lawsuit I think that could scare him against buy.,increase,decrease,False,True,111.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T23:30:54.104789Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Hourly candle is looking slim ??,increase,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:07:38.124365Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,most retarded yes pump ever LMAO thanks for the cheap shares,decrease,increase,False,True,328.4104,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:40:30.944643Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"poor bow bow... literally, that mans gonna be on the street corner with a tin can now",flip,hold,False,True,423.8905,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T13:57:12.397285Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Yup.. ans all the No people are gloating like its the 30th Nov,hold,hold,True,True,2201.2848,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T14:12:35.205433Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Probably degen will buy 100k more to buy 911 with single WIN bet. Big capital wins....,flip,increase,False,True,1897.5816,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:39:30.653641Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You can buy 1$ for 34p right now,hold,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-11T09:49:37.786238Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"Pump it harder, it needs your help",decrease,flip,False,True,2600.923,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T11:20:11.069084Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,yes bros can take some profits its always good to take some profits,increase,decrease,False,True,18.91,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:54:09.370829Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He said he liked that the ukraine war was happening because he liked so see whites dying,hold,hold,True,True,4526.4535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T01:26:17.636958Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Im buying more when NO is at 30 cents,increase,increase,True,True,1092.2851,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T12:16:54.466847Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Either he will actually launch a meme coin or a memorabilia kanye challenge coin lol,hold,hold,True,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:47:57.984432Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Community college about to go hard,flip,hold,False,True,1231.5515,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:30:54.444097Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"LOL, white fragility on display. Me calling out racist whites means I want to kill them? You're retarded.",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:58:52.823364Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Contest the results if the coin drops at 12:00:001,flip,hold,False,True,689.5783,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T08:03:02.803868Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR_S3Y7A34U&t OMG BIANCA CENSORI IS SO HOT. Hopefully Kanye gets her pregnant,flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T19:09:58.926944Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I'm bailing out of this market before the Ronaldo+Beast video launches. I just hope it's anything like the previous vide,decrease,decrease,True,True,643.4576,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T00:11:31.981753Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"https://x.com/hitlergov/status/1893429995470455213 officially speaking it's gonna be hitler launching it, not kanye",decrease,hold,False,True,668.9088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T04:27:04.319675Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"34 minutes left, gg yes and no holders",hold,hold,True,True,28198.3646,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:50:03.728661Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,OMG HE JUST LAUNCHED... SELL SELL SELL https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1894149826805149884,flip,flip,True,True,1846.3537,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..08c305521339383c5e2145315ac9334bc559c842 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,241 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +522080,2025-02-21T09:03:53.878409Z,Can you send link or just nothing happened,decrease,hold,False +523910,2025-02-23T11:46:00.996329Z,No holders ready for Saylormoon posting the green dot BS posting?,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T10:00:28.219923Z,It's true. I ran the odds and there's literally no way we can win any more.,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T01:16:26.504149Z,thx for actually talking to us,decrease,hold,False +517082,2025-01-15T13:52:16.770185Z,we all coming from the bottom boys,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-24T16:37:14.745133Z,"if it happens, it'll be months from now",decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-23T21:51:39.451957Z,Yes are selling and buying no currently,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T23:55:50.563761Z,"strong buy walls on no, NO COIN IS OUT",decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-26T00:25:14.848708Z,"100% no launch tonight based on his tweets. Also he will go to sleep soon, meaning NO will gradually go up only througho",decrease,hold,False +512600,2024-11-28T06:35:19.008997Z,wtf btc doesnt trade on the US market??,hold,hold,True +545512,2025-05-24T17:23:46.088709Z,"I dont wanna say, i dont want other ppl to start buying yes.... but yes i know about 21 jan.",decrease,decrease,True +557759,2025-07-06T12:55:00.943365Z,How can u even see it there¡¯s so many dots ????,decrease,decrease,True +557759,2025-07-03T19:59:17.570378Z,"https://x.com/saylor/status/1940841509575946649 ""Im going to buy top forever!""",hold,hold,True +517082,2025-01-31T18:51:00.611812Z,I am finally in profit. I am the greatest gambler of all time. Thats the most important rule for gambling: if you are lo,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-26T16:32:46.540725Z,Whippidy Whoppidy! Your money is my property!,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T18:37:40.096067Z,Watch the weak hands buy back no on tuesday or wednesday,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-21T11:28:25.177364Z,thats why i say thanks for the money friend!,decrease,decrease,True +512600,2024-11-29T13:52:47.840451Z,So they yes guys including me might be cooked xD,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-30T13:30:59.612354Z,True. I want you as my alies bro. Hit me up on discord @0xpareto.eth,decrease,hold,False +512600,2024-11-29T15:09:01.554502Z,haha man I laugh a lot with your comments,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T05:59:14.830618Z,Don't Drop That Thun Thun Don't Drop That Thun Thun,decrease,hold,False +512662,2024-11-21T05:10:27.460318Z,When you spend all your doe on all the other btc markets before seeing this one... ??,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-21T08:26:58.070069Z,guys i found kanyes meteora pool please keep bidding yes!!!!,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-24T19:09:58.926944Z,I'm bailing out of this market before the Ronaldo+Beast video launches. I just hope it's anything like the previous vide,decrease,decrease,True +522549,2025-02-14T22:01:19.900554Z,Presidents' Day: February 17 (Monday) the holiday is on monday but saylor announce in monday what he has bought during l,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-23T19:44:44.969091Z,"@Guwop, what's your main account? I saw you sold all of your shares",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-24T15:18:46.397751Z,Coin is launching guys i talked with insiders,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-21T22:25:47.795151Z,he transfered them to so called insiders,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-28T19:52:24.940657Z,He just bought 1500$ of yes share,hold,hold,True +521634,2025-02-09T13:36:23.793929Z,hes not gonna tweet sell while u can,decrease,hold,False +512600,2024-11-25T04:41:17.521422Z,Yes! I can feel free money is coming to me,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-28T22:25:15.067292Z,Seeing so many complete dumbfucks losing tens of thousands felt amazing,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-23T19:05:37.156783Z,I'm mixed race (black/white/native american) and I have a white girlfriend. Most of my sexual partners in my past are wh,hold,hold,True +512662,2024-11-20T16:10:22.198368Z,it¡¯s not over until I say it¡¯s over,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-23T02:16:00.566851Z,"This market is too retarded for me ngl, fun to pay attention to though.",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-27T05:53:03.537513Z,Bowbow is either a genius or a hopeless gambling addict lol,decrease,hold,False +522549,2025-02-14T21:04:59.687053Z,"@lpmeteora84 stop messing with the price, take it easy",decrease,hold,False +532756,2025-04-06T11:36:31.429641Z,True scares me as well haha but don't mind if my investment is lost. worth take the risk,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-24T06:26:32.992729Z,Tip me 10 to get me on your side,hold,hold,True +545512,2025-05-25T16:11:41.286358Z,"If Saylor could announce the purchase any day why did he even wait all this time for monday, he needs the market open th",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-21T23:19:32.518478Z,Awesome thanks for clearing that up. Just bought 1 million N¡¯s,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T09:17:17.692341Z,Top NO holder Zyn sold his all shares 10 mins before the Zendesk post and none of top yes holders fresh accounts are sel,decrease,decrease,True +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:57.098096Z,you retarted bugs playing against whale? low level iq mazafakers,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-24T00:48:14.089252Z,thank you sellwallsan for moving your price point,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T18:57:28.705782Z,"Only 1% will make 10,000% PnL, other 99% will lose EVERYTHING",hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-27T20:36:57.452029Z,How many people use indicators for trading? Do they really work to help guide trading?,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-03-01T01:59:45.610845Z,"""Back in 2009, the folks over at OKCupid culled through the site's data and similarly found that race played a big role ",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T12:52:41.870949Z,"just imagine, a secret coin. which all of Twitter and the polymarket already know. very true. It's just psychology, no i",decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-22T07:37:07.493541Z,Coins are like overhyped collections which prey on they fans. And you really think he launches,hold,hold,True +547239,2025-06-02T11:19:37.931645Z,Let's hope MicroStrategy pays my trip to Japan ??,hold,hold,True +512662,2024-11-22T05:31:33.765666Z,"BTC really just needs to break 100k, the hype will do the rest.",decrease,hold,False +522549,2025-02-10T21:33:43.147442Z,The journey and the experiences we gain along the way are far more important than the final outcome,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T21:36:46.955041Z,I SAW YOU SWITCH FROM SCHIZOKANYE'S ACCOUNT IN REALTIME,hold,decrease,False +537132,2025-04-21T11:58:55.223607Z,Nah .. it was all just a joke .. good luck (:,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-15T21:55:09.660019Z,"I just talked to the team, they are doing it today",hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:08.023809Z,you know something how market works stupid? dollar trade against BTC so war is bad for dollar that means dollar goes dow,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-25T17:08:38.092527Z,"I am not deying that it will rebound a little, but to think it hits 100k after the fomo is beggining to die out is wild",decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-22T07:19:26.324267Z,"RonDeStantis is either simply exiting his No position, or is about to switch sides to Yes.",decrease,decrease,True +521634,2025-02-10T07:11:59.371049Z,"Unless you build a new org called MicroStrategy and buy it yourself and Saylor announce that your org buys some btc, the",decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-23T22:10:22.112481Z,Polymarket wil not create such a market.,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T09:37:25.899456Z,"He will launch something, but not a coin. Probably new drop and trolled crypto bros with his tweets for more attention",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T09:35:43.682385Z,My best working theory is that Ye is out here in the trenches with us. Any tweet he makes could generate him 100s of tho,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T11:52:46.754Z,I've run the numbers and each hour that goes by gets us closer to the end.,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T10:10:58.386597Z,bowbow wallet if you want ti have an idea of how much he is rich : first 0x1929347E025D4F5F8D6B2Bd2261e2f4EfcAcd215,decrease,hold,False +532756,2025-04-04T17:55:27.855429Z,But even if they got paid for misinformation what would anyone get out of it,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-20T04:33:53.715452Z,No here's the link to his X account : https://x.com/kanyewest,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-23T00:11:31.981753Z,"https://x.com/hitlergov/status/1893429995470455213 officially speaking it's gonna be hitler launching it, not kanye",decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-23T22:07:33.004369Z,But nggas prayed on our downfall,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-20T17:17:38.153917Z,No matter what happens someone is literally committing a crime right now,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-21T12:37:49.885363Z,STAY OUT OF THIS MARKET!!! WARNING TO ALL PEOPLE CONSIDERING BUYING NO: STOP!!! INSIDERS ARE CASHING IN ON BOTH THIS AND,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T02:44:43.264915Z,"Dump those bags, 30 i the highest no goes",decrease,decrease,True +512600,2024-11-18T07:11:24.771681Z,"bitcoin will take more than November to reach 100k and remember, the higher the price the more people want to sell",decrease,decrease,True +522549,2025-02-11T12:29:58.519189Z,If I get any goldfish I will name one of them Pat,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-03-01T00:15:29.384523Z,"Crypto journalism is a joke man, imagine falling for a random ass fucking article",decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T02:25:53.759521Z,next week? he may do it Friday next week if so that is the 28th so risky,decrease,decrease,True +512600,2024-11-28T13:36:39.191923Z,Man stop the cope. Nobody living paycheck to paycheck is dumping their salaries into something that has doubled in the p,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-26T15:36:53.519671Z,He is the only one true insider in this market,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T15:25:14.024049Z,Keep bugging him about the coin on X,hold,hold,True +557759,2025-07-06T12:51:59.057044Z,"If you look closely, you see the new dot.",decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-24T14:40:21.962805Z,anyone who thought they knew how Kanye was going to act needs to rethink,decrease,decrease,True +548985,2025-06-08T12:27:01.634583Z,"He post About bitcoin everyday, we¡¯ll see the results tomorrow!!",hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-28T13:33:04.498999Z,"everyone's getting paid tomorrow, salary payments going into the pump machine",decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-23T20:09:34.000567Z,This retard can make more off of a Tweet than he can make working for coindesk for 10 years straight. The economics don',hold,hold,True +522549,2025-02-11T21:14:22.502025Z,"Last week the rules were the same and nobody disputed it.It was resolved to ""Yes"",so no worries.",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T01:16:15.959081Z,what does that even mean daddy,decrease,hold,False +512600,2024-11-27T01:42:01.389784Z,Thanks for your reply. now i understand why everybody is on his ass lol,decrease,hold,False +512600,2024-11-17T22:04:15.909378Z,Its really 50/50 odds in crypto the market can just skyrocket or collapse at any moment,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T17:35:48.004788Z,I will tip YES buyers a dollar for good luck just say hi,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T00:39:06.681504Z,"no resistance until mid 40s, one whale buying no and it's a huge bump, and that's just with technical analysis. Ye isn't",decrease,hold,False +512662,2024-11-23T02:51:58.331074Z,"more than happy to answer your question. If you look on the coinbase orderbook, you're going to see a brick wall of sell",hold,decrease,False +539966,2025-05-05T11:55:40.541729Z,"Bro It¡¯s not deffinitly but if you¡¯re no sure you¡¯re on time to leave and keep save, I¡¯m Betting because It¡¯s just ",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-23T21:19:49.360629Z,Search it up. I'm not that much of an expert on crypto,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T16:27:01.977727Z,"woke up at 20cents and had a minor heart attack, glad I didn't panic sold in sleep drowsiness",decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-23T20:50:24.284472Z,@bullishonsol You will buy my shares at 1$ lil ngga,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-23T11:58:28.268538Z,5 days left on this shitshow and somehow you can still get 2.5x your money for betting on it won't happen,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-25T03:35:48.872185Z,fuck harvard. They're a bunch of legacy/nepotism admissions,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-25T12:07:41.993413Z,Omg bro i told you to quit few days ago you are too emotional for this,decrease,decrease,True +545512,2025-05-24T17:48:00.463858Z,"guys fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",decrease,decrease,True +512600,2024-11-29T00:18:33.908981Z,IN BOWBOW WE TRUST #PumpBitcoin ??,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T18:26:46.860131Z,"Guys ,its not happening at least today. We can go back to our daily lifes",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-27T21:15:33.642732Z,You bought NO at 82 and are telling others about 'bitter failure',hold,decrease,False +565921,2025-07-21T12:09:20.293053Z,Small buy??? Bro thats nearly $1b worth of BTC lol,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-24T13:57:12.397285Z,Yup.. ans all the No people are gloating like its the 30th Nov,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-29T18:20:33.866985Z,"I had absolutely no idea what I was doing here but my $100 turned into $200, so thanks for that",hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-29T20:52:06.797264Z,what happened to bowbow not selling shares?,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T05:27:01.958281Z,Had to top up with these nice odds,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T01:35:46.027358Z,fr if all goes well im going on a short vaca,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-27T06:24:53.336913Z,I need btc to go down to 91k so I can more YES,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-23T08:11:08.616287Z,Don't Drop That Thun Thun Don't Drop That Thun Thun,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T10:07:38.124365Z,most retarded yes pump ever LMAO thanks for the cheap shares,decrease,decrease,True +512600,2024-11-29T14:39:45.742503Z,I think u made the right play tbh,decrease,hold,False +552872,2025-06-23T12:14:50.812204Z,I hope saylor cuck dies man. Wtf is a 245 btc buy,hold,decrease,False +522549,2025-02-11T09:49:37.786238Z,"Pump it harder, it needs your help",decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T18:20:59.309835Z,"thats actually march 2nd. if your going to scam, be better",decrease,decrease,True +528620,2025-03-24T06:46:30.727356Z,the challenge ends at 11:59 pm ET,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T23:04:40.120938Z,That was the most obvious pump and dump I've seen in a while.,hold,decrease,False +539966,2025-05-05T11:49:08.837917Z,"man, I'm trading here not fisrt time. I've seen a lot of people like u. And And they never won, even though they believe",decrease,decrease,True +522549,2025-02-13T23:13:42.342788Z,"simple, he's not announced a new convertible note and now there's not enough time to get one done.",hold,hold,True +545512,2025-05-26T10:22:25.870462Z,"its confirmed he will post it , slayor did this before as well",decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T00:42:20.145922Z,yes he is i can attest to that -outcast2024 from Harvard,decrease,decrease,True +512600,2024-11-29T18:12:46.787694Z,somebody just gave me 800$ for free when sold me his bet for 4k,decrease,decrease,True +512600,2024-11-29T11:34:23.379174Z,wait until yes holders realise they need 100k not 97 ??,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-21T23:28:00.806608Z,JUST IN: woofwoof9 is found to be an insider at feeding america. we appreciate your generous 35k donation.,decrease,hold,False +521634,2025-02-09T13:50:12.289639Z,Microstrategy just mass sold ALL their bitcoin. What does that mean for this market? :/,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-25T00:17:39.827177Z,Do you think hes doing the launch or what lol its not him. Its the team and I doubt they will launch when there is 0 vol,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-30T17:38:30.808273Z,Why did you see it and still hold it,hold,decrease,False +545512,2025-05-26T12:16:32.407565Z,Thank you all from my me and my other account day dreamer ??,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-27T14:45:36.903523Z,"You are absolutely correct. If Bullishonsole hadn't bought $2,000+ yesterday, I would still be holding my 6K+ no shares.",decrease,decrease,True +517082,2025-01-07T16:15:34.270077Z,110000 easy. trump inaugeration will make it pump,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T16:43:14.455955Z,"OMG its Sam Kessler again, guys its ggs. But I swear his credible sources said last Friday? eh they probably meant this ",decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T15:57:20.581685Z,F3UCK Y'3LL 'YES' N3GGAS..... GIVING ME ALL THE STRESS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.... ILL DESTORY YOU GUYS 1 DOLLAR AT A TIME,hold,decrease,False +548985,2025-06-09T11:28:19.701235Z,"Yeah fully agree but I think the price isnt too bad, who knows he might only buy tomorrow",hold,decrease,False +522549,2025-02-16T12:53:32.729877Z,If most of the comments aren¡¯t making sense to you check January 20th,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-25T23:56:47.324157Z,A friend from my high stakes crypto trading circle knows I m in this mess,decrease,decrease,True +512600,2024-11-26T11:03:16.511687Z,I would just like to acknowlege bow bow- The number 1 Donater to us no holders!!!,decrease,hold,False +512600,2024-11-28T23:34:25.372588Z,he already owns 12% of this market,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-27T04:13:31.482378Z,"Nah im not, but you the figures on bull/sell are different when you actually go to perform action. Test it",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T07:49:34.461558Z,He might troll everyone for attention and drop something else than a coin,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-21T09:28:33.920015Z,"People are panicking a bit too much. There can always be delays, and that's decently likely given the incident with Mile",hold,hold,True +548985,2025-06-07T15:01:07.591817Z,"Actually bet is something else, it¡¯s a window of buying again till 9 June, and MSTR already purchased 705 btc on 2 June",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-27T18:48:32.903947Z,i'm saying that he is used to spread missinformation. also he claims he is Jesus or the next Michael Jackson? what the..,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-20T16:42:53.030005Z,why u back in i thought u sold,decrease,hold,False +545512,2025-05-25T16:59:30.668749Z,Last 4 times Saylor post purchase on same time 8:00AM ET or 14:00 PM europe,hold,decrease,False +548985,2025-06-07T09:50:35.496476Z,"Yes it was on June 2, look at strategy balance sheet, it clearly states last buy was on 2 June, so yeah if he didn¡¯t po",hold,decrease,False +532756,2025-04-03T18:08:53.471317Z,lol if ppl read their investor filings they would have known they're not buying from yesterday. thats why i bought a lot,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-24T23:53:00.493959Z,YOU DIDN'T SEE THE EARLIER CONVERSATION SCROLL DOWN,hold,decrease,False +522549,2025-02-10T21:29:32.197313Z,That's a whopping 6 grand to throw into the flames!,hold,decrease,False +512662,2024-11-27T18:52:43.490339Z,Do yall think i'll hit 100K this week?,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-28T18:50:39.912555Z,It's thanksgiving I am not very hopeful tonight looking at the trade volume. But maybe the BTC will find some footing to,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-22T05:11:39.041527Z,i already get 0 bitches so this changes nothing for me,decrease,hold,False +512600,2024-11-23T17:42:02.639698Z,"I am thinking to breakeven, this is crazy volatile!!! wdyt",decrease,decrease,True +547239,2025-06-02T13:32:07.279092Z,Sell for who? No one is buying this.,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-25T06:17:20.504593Z,Is originalZyn trying to see how much he can lose in this market? Impressive!,decrease,hold,False +512600,2024-11-24T19:00:55.041814Z,see yall in 7 days when we collecting the cash,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T19:08:55.407079Z,He followed some random account,hold,hold,True +521634,2025-02-09T14:27:28.173489Z,I have built my position. Will be so sad if I lose,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T11:59:41.502108Z,"I hope so too, we believe in him so much.",decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T00:20:13.624881Z,ngl the weekly bitcoin price ones have been fun too recently,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-24T23:54:09.370829Z,He said he liked that the ukraine war was happening because he liked so see whites dying,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T09:53:21.265344Z,IVE INTERCEDED WITH GOD TO PUSH AGAINIST THE CRYPTO THOUGHT IN YE'S HEAD,hold,hold,True +512662,2024-11-24T11:31:26.684069Z,Guys I lied its gonna hit 105k. you should dump everything you have into it trust me !!!!,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-22T08:24:51.234189Z,He ll launch a store or something its promo,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-27T20:22:36.638465Z,"lmaooo, the good old days in WSB",decrease,decrease,True +545512,2025-05-26T09:07:02.750612Z,"We will all know for future, we know how Saylor buying BTC we have max 3 hours from here to expect post, Saylor always a",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T18:40:27.729717Z,Because he damages the chance of him actually putting out a coin every time he tweets his racist bullshit,decrease,decrease,True +522549,2025-02-17T02:32:59.975465Z,Unfortunately it¡¯s the other way around.,hold,decrease,False +521634,2025-02-10T10:02:49.481543Z,"Please Mr. Saylor, delay the announcement ;)",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-28T21:51:28.172389Z,not a good payout so no but yes holders been saying wait till tmr big day tmr and stuff like that for like 4 days straig,decrease,decrease,True +539966,2025-05-05T12:06:13.771166Z,I thought for sure this was the week lol,hold,decrease,False +545512,2025-05-24T16:23:19.397602Z,No exit liquidity for podgies. He is stuck buying.,decrease,hold,False +565921,2025-07-26T13:55:49.774109Z,@pbshine are we fucked actually and we trapped not NO side ?,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-23T07:40:02.739321Z,"im stupid and bought more usdc on coinbase with my bank account so it takes until the 25th to be transferrable, and im n",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T23:34:49.100037Z,Kanye didn't even get to announce his own official coin before it got rugged,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-22T22:39:30.653641Z,You can buy 1$ for 34p right now,hold,hold,True +512662,2024-11-20T17:14:08.170281Z,"Back down to 93k, lets keep the downward momentum going ??",decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-22T07:00:58.069497Z,if he doesnt drop on solana i gotta get a job bruh,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-25T17:50:45.313254Z,"honestly, i don't think it will hit 100k until Decemeber at the minimum. It will only really go up sooner if something b",decrease,decrease,True +557759,2025-07-05T22:04:07.915903Z,"i also think that, i also think there is no insdiers. but ppl telling how dalailama is insider, podgies is insider and n",decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-21T11:03:00.673181Z,zoomers when reply has 13 words,decrease,hold,False +537132,2025-04-21T11:17:06.259205Z,"Nothing wrong with L's- we ALL take em.... but what I dislike is the attitude. We all learn, but no need for the other s",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T16:14:24.100436Z,"I am your GF now, BUY MORE NO'S",decrease,hold,False +557759,2025-07-07T11:18:48.584047Z,imagine betting against the insiders when even Saylor said some weeks you don't buy ??,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-23T19:34:25.711777Z,"This doesn't even make any sense. There's what, ~130 hours even left on this thing and if he doesn't launch specifically",hold,hold,True +565921,2025-07-28T12:05:59.143944Z,"Allyaws the same bru, this market crazy manipulated",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-23T10:45:53.165925Z,"my dad works for nazi west, please expect nazi coin in like 2-3 business days, go buy some yes and make millions, this i",hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-29T23:17:42.687957Z,Our hero BowBow renamed itself to BuySell. Still a hero!,decrease,hold,False +512600,2024-11-29T17:28:10.748828Z,"any chance of btc coming back up to 98k over the weekend, 5 - 10% ?",decrease,decrease,True +552872,2025-06-23T04:18:33.746514Z,https://www.strategy.com/purchases there is no purchaces between 17 and 23,hold,hold,True +512662,2024-11-16T18:24:37.003194Z,"Na bro, the runs not over, next run within 24h.",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-12-01T04:27:04.319675Z,"34 minutes left, gg yes and no holders",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-21T23:41:44.779287Z,Been here 2 months this comment section is the best so far haha,decrease,hold,False +532756,2025-04-07T12:32:33.483766Z,"Well, they announced that they did not bought any, isn't this enough for the market to be resolved or it will be too ear",hold,decrease,False +532756,2025-04-05T13:49:48.140609Z,Definitely not he was wrong in if mstr gonna buy more than 200 plus btc market check,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-21T15:50:32.380985Z,"wth is quaint mean? bro is making up words, trying to trick us",decrease,hold,False +547239,2025-05-31T17:13:42.823481Z,advice to both yall: no crying in casino,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T04:45:40.908652Z,But you're a trump supporter though. Trump and Elon are nazis,hold,hold,True +545512,2025-05-25T12:47:34.548683Z,"not even close to truth, announcement just needs to be on widely accepted public outlet such as SEC (closed monday) or B",decrease,decrease,True +548985,2025-06-09T09:58:01.110228Z,this is a once in a lifetime bet depending on someone posting a x post while shitting,hold,decrease,False +532756,2025-04-06T10:10:03.364989Z,"Honestly i dont trust that london insider who know maybe is true but i dont care, last time he bought very big amount pr",decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-22T23:51:18.539682Z,'NO' Holders BUCKLE UP.... WE'RE READY FOR TAKEOFF,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T18:12:06.035887Z,@georgefloydfentanyl you will buy my no shares at 1$,hold,hold,True +521634,2025-02-09T20:27:46.837097Z,"If a guy called Dave Smith changes his name to Jack Smith, then buys a house, the house is in Jack Smiths name not Dave ",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-24T21:12:49.482835Z,"I haven't lost money, the bet I am on currently has not ended and odds are obviously in my favour and close to my buy in",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T19:28:01.658931Z,if ur trying to buy in more it matters,decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-22T02:13:31.991261Z,when this resolves to no i¡¯ll tip 100$ to a random gambling addict that comments in this thread,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T23:51:29.342633Z,aenews just made a million dollars from this site wtf,decrease,decrease,True +522549,2025-02-10T20:58:22.921038Z,The 500K market would be trading at 80 cents for the NO shares if that was the case,decrease,hold,False +512600,2024-11-29T17:46:41.010217Z,I just bought this no and BTC is already gaining steam again.,decrease,decrease,True +512600,2024-11-25T07:57:19.763801Z,If you say so mac.. only takes 2 seconds to see you are spam trolling chat with NO spam thinking its going to effect the,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-23T15:40:31.602014Z,"bro you get 1,2 kkkkk but have fun with it",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T20:24:44.644445Z,"I can't believe when I started this journey, I didn't think we'd win... we're gonna win.",hold,hold,True +557759,2025-07-07T11:17:13.330522Z,"Well, I can buy and hodl at the same time right? As long as he doesn¡¯t sell he¡¯s HODLing so I don¡¯t understand how th",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T19:53:14.847734Z,"Why would he scam you, you dumbo",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-26T20:10:38.396717Z,Feel sad for you man¡­ hang on! Better times will come ??,decrease,hold,False +545512,2025-05-24T16:56:48.954848Z,Cheaper entrance points have arrived.,decrease,decrease,True +547239,2025-05-26T12:33:31.860638Z,"Well, I think this week he'll skip",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T09:10:46.338834Z,'no' holders that sold got scammed by j3ws,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-28T22:06:42.022735Z,everybody thank aenews for the 90 THOUSAND dono,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T13:52:14.477227Z,"People are so dumb bow2 is a bot or market maker, look at the buy amounts lol. 0.38$ purchase? Haahah",hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-25T14:24:51.530766Z,"Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29 no trades are at 68%... do people think that alot could happen in 1 day lmaooo",decrease,decrease,True +522080,2025-02-27T01:17:06.002928Z,"Please Lord forgive me for my greed, forgive me for mistaking a piece for the puzzle. Please let Kanye tweet the coin la",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-24T12:49:33.760989Z,"Great, I made the right bet in time!",decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T20:56:09.499644Z,"n(A)z(I) someone get me Ye on the line, i got his AI company name",decrease,hold,False +512600,2024-11-25T10:30:29.462166Z,"noers you should totally sell, i'd love to buy the shares for cheapers :3",decrease,decrease,True +552872,2025-06-22T20:00:00.211982Z,No he dont buy a cheick all wallets,hold,hold,True +537132,2025-04-21T09:02:25.692938Z,"Why is someone buying ""NO""? Statistically, MicroStrategy has always bought $BTC on Monday after the post, that¡¯s a fact",hold,hold,True +528620,2025-03-24T09:19:03.507743Z,"He hasn't announced when he will buy yet though, that's the thing. We have an entire trading day to see, starting in a f",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-20T16:57:12.298683Z,Anyone who thinks Ye is going to launch a coin before the deadline obviously hasn't waited for one of his albums before,hold,hold,True +537132,2025-04-20T15:22:32.969038Z,100k on no? bro he is gonna announce the buy tomorrow,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T12:16:54.466847Z,Either he will actually launch a meme coin or a memorabilia kanye challenge coin lol,hold,hold,True +557759,2025-07-05T23:43:18.092502Z,"In sunday we will know, if Saylor post dot chart after 12hours from now, Yes will pump to 99c, if he post random post, N",decrease,decrease,True +545512,2025-05-25T16:06:35.952984Z,All the time. See his activity. Averaging from few days,decrease,hold,False +545512,2025-05-21T14:35:57.838029Z,Yet not a single yes share to your name. Makes you wonder what your motives are.,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-27T01:54:21.155979Z,Why cant I use emojis in comments while others can? (iPhone),decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-19T17:35:22.879394Z,it¡¯s because of insider buying on the yes side,decrease,decrease,True +512600,2024-11-25T15:10:42.627119Z,"I'm glad to be part of the NO team, congratulations guys!!",decrease,hold,False +512600,2024-12-01T03:18:45.180065Z,"I kinda wish now that all of a sudden last minute it goes to 100k, just because of BowBow",hold,hold,True +532756,2025-04-06T07:24:36.844926Z,When they bough and say about it,decrease,hold,False +522080,2025-02-25T23:09:13.812234Z,"TLDR, no is now cheaper for the time being. yes, kanye will drop a coin. no, it will not drop in february. theres too mu",decrease,decrease,True +512600,2024-11-29T09:37:30.354899Z,If only. That would really save my hide,decrease,decrease,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b412acee26bb97fa717a0f350ac83676fb15cc41 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,241 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +522080,2025-02-22T19:11:30.587534Z,"imagine you were Ye right now, I'd have the time of my life",flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-23T02:56:59.162282Z,Never a shortage of retarded drama here,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T10:00:28.219923Z,It's true. I ran the odds and there's literally no way we can win any more.,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-20T11:19:59.519663Z,Both keykash and tenable-dome officially out! Who¡¯s the retard?,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T09:14:35.736839Z,ANYONE CAN FAKE AN EMAIL ADDRESS THAT SHIT IS EASY ASF TO SPOOF,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T10:25:24.245278Z,YOU WILL FINALLY LEARN THAT COINDESK IS NOT A SERIOUS NEWS SOURCE. THEY REPORT EVERYTHING JUST AS IT IS WITH ABSOLUTELY ,flip,hold,False +523910,2025-02-23T11:46:00.996329Z,No holders ready for Saylormoon posting the green dot BS posting?,hold,hold,True +545512,2025-05-24T21:47:30.085557Z,"guys I sold all my YES and bought NO because I saw this: Specifically, MicroStrategy will announce details of its latest",flip,flip,True +512600,2024-11-28T06:35:19.008997Z,wtf btc doesnt trade on the US market??,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-20T19:27:53.751906Z,stop believing and know instead,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T13:48:06.992964Z,Check the information for yourself,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-29T13:47:56.331403Z,all it takes is like 2 whales and 3 firms is all im saying...,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-29T15:09:01.554502Z,haha man I laugh a lot with your comments,hold,hold,True +517082,2025-01-31T18:51:00.611812Z,I am finally in profit. I am the greatest gambler of all time. Thats the most important rule for gambling: if you are lo,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T13:52:47.840451Z,So they yes guys including me might be cooked xD,hold,flip,False +557759,2025-07-03T19:59:17.570378Z,"https://x.com/saylor/status/1940841509575946649 ""Im going to buy top forever!""",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-26T16:32:46.540725Z,Whippidy Whoppidy! Your money is my property!,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T18:37:40.096067Z,Watch the weak hands buy back no on tuesday or wednesday,hold,hold,True +535289,2025-04-11T18:39:12.299972Z,wouldnt londoninsider post again incase they buy?,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T03:26:16.581864Z,Fair price is gonna drop for every day that he doesn¡¯t launch a coin,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-26T21:07:05.931747Z,"Why u guys so interested in bowbow bets ? He do whatever he wants with his money,so stop all this bullshit.",flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T12:11:09.151775Z,I don't know what is happening I need guwop's guidance,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T08:26:58.070069Z,guys i found kanyes meteora pool please keep bidding yes!!!!,hold,flip,False +512662,2024-11-21T05:10:27.460318Z,When you spend all your doe on all the other btc markets before seeing this one... ??,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-28T19:52:24.940657Z,He just bought 1500$ of yes share,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T19:44:44.969091Z,"@Guwop, what's your main account? I saw you sold all of your shares",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T11:59:06.649064Z,"Also, why are the ""YZY insiders"" leaking so much information to the news reporter, all about tokenomics, the supposed to",flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-25T04:41:17.521422Z,Yes! I can feel free money is coming to me,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T22:25:47.795151Z,he transfered them to so called insiders,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-24T15:18:46.397751Z,Coin is launching guys i talked with insiders,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-26T06:26:54.366079Z,Lol still buying 'yes' eh.... GO FOR BROKE,flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-23T02:16:00.566851Z,"This market is too retarded for me ngl, fun to pay attention to though.",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T23:39:25.128578Z,"If it's a rumor, at least publish ALL the information, why are you withholding information that is crucial to evaluate t",flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-23T19:05:37.156783Z,I'm mixed race (black/white/native american) and I have a white girlfriend. Most of my sexual partners in my past are wh,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T13:48:47.207041Z,"hussein, can you accept my calls",flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-24T06:26:32.992729Z,Tip me 10 to get me on your side,hold,hold,True +545512,2025-05-24T21:49:38.896772Z,when are u gonna understand i am not that nigga?,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T16:33:53.098961Z,"Fuck you kanye, you destroyed my mental health",flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-26T05:40:59.602733Z,Imagine him shooting loads onto a paper with a swastika on it?,flip,hold,False +545512,2025-05-25T16:11:41.286358Z,"If Saylor could announce the purchase any day why did he even wait all this time for monday, he needs the market open th",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-22T00:21:19.342356Z,and will smith... he hates will smith,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T23:19:32.518478Z,Awesome thanks for clearing that up. Just bought 1 million N¡¯s,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-21T16:34:45.861204Z,The ***exit liquidity*** is buying,flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-21T15:22:53.786032Z,his next tweet makes or breaks this market. good luck nobros,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-24T00:48:14.089252Z,thank you sellwallsan for moving your price point,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T18:57:28.705782Z,"Only 1% will make 10,000% PnL, other 99% will lose EVERYTHING",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-03-01T01:59:45.610845Z,"""Back in 2009, the folks over at OKCupid culled through the site's data and similarly found that race played a big role ",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T02:15:20.295506Z,"4% away and a 70% chance of not happening? Do the math, yes is about to explode",flip,hold,False +547239,2025-06-02T11:19:37.931645Z,Let's hope MicroStrategy pays my trip to Japan ??,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T21:36:46.955041Z,I SAW YOU SWITCH FROM SCHIZOKANYE'S ACCOUNT IN REALTIME,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-22T07:37:07.493541Z,Coins are like overhyped collections which prey on they fans. And you really think he launches,hold,hold,True +537132,2025-04-21T11:58:55.223607Z,Nah .. it was all just a joke .. good luck (:,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-25T15:10:16.235478Z,Market crashing left and right. I¡¯m so glad I sold my eth so I could bet on this market. I¡¯m a genius,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:08.023809Z,you know something how market works stupid? dollar trade against BTC so war is bad for dollar that means dollar goes dow,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-15T21:55:09.660019Z,"I just talked to the team, they are doing it today",hold,flip,False +545512,2025-05-24T12:27:15.988912Z,He buys almost every week. That's it lol.,flip,hold,False +522549,2025-02-10T21:33:43.147442Z,The journey and the experiences we gain along the way are far more important than the final outcome,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T11:52:46.754Z,I've run the numbers and each hour that goes by gets us closer to the end.,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T09:35:43.682385Z,My best working theory is that Ye is out here in the trenches with us. Any tweet he makes could generate him 100s of tho,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-23T22:10:22.112481Z,Polymarket wil not create such a market.,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T09:37:25.899456Z,"He will launch something, but not a coin. Probably new drop and trolled crypto bros with his tweets for more attention",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-24T17:43:48.449719Z,The usage of 'ROTFLMAO' is dumb. Sorry for your loss btw.,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T14:00:00.182462Z,I'm sincerely asking again: is Chris McKinney the real CFO of Yeezy or is it Hussein?,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-28T23:45:18.830016Z,"quick! buy your cheap No's, the ship is leaving",flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-22T01:49:56.564901Z,your name is jj shut the fuck up,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-28T23:40:49.882526Z,as soon as it goes above 31 except to see a sell wall of 2mil shares and then another buy wall for No ??,flip,flip,True +545512,2025-05-24T21:46:44.811724Z,i said i changed my mind after doing more research.,flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-21T12:37:49.885363Z,STAY OUT OF THIS MARKET!!! WARNING TO ALL PEOPLE CONSIDERING BUYING NO: STOP!!! INSIDERS ARE CASHING IN ON BOTH THIS AND,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-26T07:54:30.857237Z,https://polymarket.com/profile/0xe18cf27e93bdb34ca49e60f7b59df0496c2cd678 I hope this loser's mom gets taken advantage o,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-25T16:44:12.467194Z,"Great idea, me too will buy yes very soon",flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-23T22:07:33.004369Z,But nggas prayed on our downfall,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-25T07:13:51.857383Z,You gonna hack his account on friday or smth?,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-25T16:15:55.644295Z,Bro I think you should de-risk... Isn't 1k usd like 1.5 million rupees in india?,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-27T18:13:35.254849Z,"well i mean as long it's not too much money for u, fair enough.",flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-26T21:10:00.752185Z,Yes but im right in the end dont u think so ? Everyone does whatever he wants with his money and in the end he still can,flip,flip,True +522549,2025-02-11T12:29:58.519189Z,If I get any goldfish I will name one of them Pat,hold,hold,True +548985,2025-06-08T12:27:01.634583Z,"He post About bitcoin everyday, we¡¯ll see the results tomorrow!!",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-21T23:33:41.383533Z,"Data gathering websites say it's Chris McKinney, which one is it?",flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T15:25:14.024049Z,Keep bugging him about the coin on X,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T01:13:13.167441Z,AENEWS STOP YOU CAN'T DO THIS TO US. I THOUGHT WE WERE FRIENDS,flip,flip,True +512600,2024-11-26T17:21:16.781554Z,tomorrow 95k support and pusing 97k-98k again,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-17T22:04:15.909378Z,Its really 50/50 odds in crypto the market can just skyrocket or collapse at any moment,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T20:09:34.000567Z,This retard can make more off of a Tweet than he can make working for coindesk for 10 years straight. The economics don',hold,hold,True +545512,2025-05-26T04:19:32.745714Z,i cancelled the sell order now.,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-25T13:50:52.324605Z,"We are in retail trap, in few days comes panic sell to 80k",flip,flip,True +512600,2024-11-29T02:48:56.268008Z,we are fine. thank the lord ??,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-29T11:41:11.180062Z,20c at 94k few das ago 20c at 95k yesterday 20c 97k now 20c at 98.5k tomorrow ??,flip,flip,True +522549,2025-02-11T21:14:22.502025Z,"Last week the rules were the same and nobody disputed it.It was resolved to ""Yes"",so no worries.",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-20T22:46:33.988587Z,"jeez, the tesla guy is just retarted but the others are purely evil",flip,hold,False +539966,2025-05-05T11:55:40.541729Z,"Bro It¡¯s not deffinitly but if you¡¯re no sure you¡¯re on time to leave and keep save, I¡¯m Betting because It¡¯s just ",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-25T15:31:38.138752Z,good luck finding no at 30 again,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-23T11:58:28.268538Z,5 days left on this shitshow and somehow you can still get 2.5x your money for betting on it won't happen,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-23T20:50:24.284472Z,@bullishonsol You will buy my shares at 1$ lil ngga,hold,hold,True +512662,2024-11-23T02:51:58.331074Z,"more than happy to answer your question. If you look on the coinbase orderbook, you're going to see a brick wall of sell",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-25T03:35:48.872185Z,fuck harvard. They're a bunch of legacy/nepotism admissions,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T18:53:27.404995Z,He launched the coin... we win,flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-22T22:31:17.975867Z,"Why the second I decided to buy ""NO"" it jumps to 37???",flip,flip,True +512600,2024-11-29T18:20:33.866985Z,"I had absolutely no idea what I was doing here but my $100 turned into $200, so thanks for that",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-28T17:33:15.497817Z,YES HOLDERS I BRING GOOD NEWS! I HAVE JUST RECIVED WORD THAT ANDREW CAKE WILL PUMP BITCOIN WITH 6 TRILLION ROMANIAN SHEK,flip,flip,True +565921,2025-07-21T12:09:20.293053Z,Small buy??? Bro thats nearly $1b worth of BTC lol,hold,flip,False +557759,2025-07-06T13:26:41.400676Z,all guys who sold at 15 cents are now rebuying after expiriencing massive panic :),flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T16:17:51.216861Z,Sam kassler is selling yes on his own article,flip,flip,True +512600,2024-11-27T21:15:33.642732Z,You bought NO at 82 and are telling others about 'bitter failure',hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-21T18:26:46.860131Z,"Guys ,its not happening at least today. We can go back to our daily lifes",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T13:17:53.974882Z,i have information that you will want to know,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T01:35:46.027358Z,fr if all goes well im going on a short vaca,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-27T06:24:53.336913Z,I need btc to go down to 91k so I can more YES,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-26T07:39:40.364164Z,i'm not sure if that Zyn wigga is an insider or outsider,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T13:38:05.358969Z,"Hussein is a Yeezy employee, not the CFO",flip,hold,False +522549,2025-02-10T20:47:27.333443Z,looks like a birds eye view of the TIP of a penis.,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-24T22:21:06.553054Z,'yes' holders and traders just keep getting duped https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1894149826805149884,flip,flip,True +512600,2024-11-24T13:57:12.397285Z,Yup.. ans all the No people are gloating like its the 30th Nov,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-21T12:02:22.673177Z,All this is based on 1 article from Coindesk and Coindesk's source is this very weird email. Time will indeed tell if we,flip,hold,False +528620,2025-03-24T06:46:30.727356Z,the challenge ends at 11:59 pm ET,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-27T21:00:53.240272Z,I mean someone has to pay the bill...,flip,hold,False +552872,2025-06-23T12:14:50.812204Z,I hope saylor cuck dies man. Wtf is a 245 btc buy,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-22T19:57:27.257594Z,This guy is creating generational wealth right there,flip,hold,False +522549,2025-02-13T23:13:42.342788Z,"simple, he's not announced a new convertible note and now there's not enough time to get one done.",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T23:04:40.120938Z,That was the most obvious pump and dump I've seen in a while.,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-20T13:23:54.595644Z,you seem to have forgotten him,flip,flip,True +512600,2024-11-26T18:56:18.651442Z,"I mean maybe. But if you to coinmarketcap and you roll back on a year by year basis almost every year, in the last week ",flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-25T00:17:39.827177Z,Do you think hes doing the launch or what lol its not him. Its the team and I doubt they will launch when there is 0 vol,hold,hold,True +545512,2025-05-24T21:48:04.668535Z,i explained in another comment,flip,hold,False +517082,2025-01-07T16:15:34.270077Z,110000 easy. trump inaugeration will make it pump,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T14:14:06.192083Z,The end of the month is coming soon =),flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-29T16:56:00.405271Z,He lost a bit on 29th Nov bets.. just sayin,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-26T20:04:54.467903Z,"I think maybe us talking about him is only egging him on. Maybe we should focus on the real winner here, @thebtcbear who",flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-30T17:38:30.808273Z,Why did you see it and still hold it,hold,flip,False +522549,2025-02-16T12:53:32.729877Z,If most of the comments aren¡¯t making sense to you check January 20th,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T02:46:11.637029Z,All we can do now is pray fellow No holders. Pray that the people buying Bitcoing for 97.000 USD will activate their las,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T15:57:20.581685Z,F3UCK Y'3LL 'YES' N3GGAS..... GIVING ME ALL THE STRESS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.... ILL DESTORY YOU GUYS 1 DOLLAR AT A TIME,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-26T01:17:07.531762Z,"Supposedly, @barkmeta who bought the posting rights of Kanye's X account launched the Yeezy coin and rug pulled it. He p",flip,flip,True +548985,2025-06-09T11:28:19.701235Z,"Yeah fully agree but I think the price isnt too bad, who knows he might only buy tomorrow",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-22T19:52:29.303184Z,they told me it could be delayed,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-27T18:56:41.382794Z,where do you get that disinfo ? it's not stox lol,flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-21T13:34:56.883906Z,Chris Mckinney... who are you in reality?,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T07:49:34.461558Z,He might troll everyone for attention and drop something else than a coin,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-28T23:34:25.372588Z,he already owns 12% of this market,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-27T04:13:31.482378Z,"Nah im not, but you the figures on bull/sell are different when you actually go to perform action. Test it",hold,flip,False +545512,2025-05-25T16:59:30.668749Z,Last 4 times Saylor post purchase on same time 8:00AM ET or 14:00 PM europe,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-21T09:28:33.920015Z,"People are panicking a bit too much. There can always be delays, and that's decently likely given the incident with Mile",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-26T06:14:20.136821Z,WE DID IT JOE.... MERELY 45 MINUTES LATER,flip,flip,True +548985,2025-06-07T15:01:07.591817Z,"Actually bet is something else, it¡¯s a window of buying again till 9 June, and MSTR already purchased 705 btc on 2 June",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-22T00:37:44.945125Z,"Setting up an SPV and being fully ready to launch in 6 days could be difficult, time will tell tho lol",flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-24T19:05:20.519066Z,Possibly last chance to get out and switch to No....,flip,hold,False +548985,2025-06-07T09:50:35.496476Z,"Yes it was on June 2, look at strategy balance sheet, it clearly states last buy was on 2 June, so yeah if he didn¡¯t po",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-24T23:53:00.493959Z,YOU DIDN'T SEE THE EARLIER CONVERSATION SCROLL DOWN,hold,hold,True +522549,2025-02-10T21:29:32.197313Z,That's a whopping 6 grand to throw into the flames!,hold,hold,True +512662,2024-11-27T18:52:43.490339Z,Do yall think i'll hit 100K this week?,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-24T16:19:53.709855Z,Ye needs to tweet so I can go big,flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-22T19:08:55.407079Z,He followed some random account,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T13:50:37.212456Z,Bullishonsol is selling his YES. Dump your bags before it crashes,flip,flip,True +557759,2025-07-06T13:52:30.083201Z,"btc mooning, soon ATH so he is buying even on weekend. hahha",flip,hold,False +547239,2025-06-02T13:32:07.279092Z,Sell for who? No one is buying this.,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T15:29:39.874003Z,"so thank you all for the dopamine shakeup, see ya at Sunday",flip,flip,True +522080,2025-03-01T04:20:17.946798Z,Does not even make sense to drop when most of his audience is asleep.,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-25T01:14:41.051264Z,This market is totally crazy. Love it,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T13:34:02.547991Z,I really wonder who the real CFO is. is it Hussein?,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-24T23:54:09.370829Z,He said he liked that the ukraine war was happening because he liked so see whites dying,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T08:24:51.234189Z,He ll launch a store or something its promo,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T13:35:12.691321Z,"Hussein, aren't you the real CFO? WHAT?",flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-21T09:53:21.265344Z,IVE INTERCEDED WITH GOD TO PUSH AGAINIST THE CRYPTO THOUGHT IN YE'S HEAD,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T15:29:34.630744Z,"you would be correct, my bad, read the number too quick",flip,hold,False +545512,2025-05-26T09:07:02.750612Z,"We will all know for future, we know how Saylor buying BTC we have max 3 hours from here to expect post, Saylor always a",hold,flip,False +522549,2025-02-17T02:32:59.975465Z,Unfortunately it¡¯s the other way around.,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-23T07:40:02.739321Z,"im stupid and bought more usdc on coinbase with my bank account so it takes until the 25th to be transferrable, and im n",hold,hold,True +532756,2025-04-06T13:11:10.920567Z,"still a chance for yes, saylor just doesnt care to post the chart for peanut buys.",flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-29T03:19:21.338162Z,"Everyone talking about BowBow, but what about Circus?! Hes the real man of the people. Buying you out when Yes is high a",flip,hold,False +539966,2025-05-05T12:06:13.771166Z,I thought for sure this was the week lol,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T14:43:21.133417Z,"Iranon, im sorry but youre not Car",flip,hold,False +521634,2025-02-10T10:02:49.481543Z,"Please Mr. Saylor, delay the announcement ;)",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-24T23:47:21.493706Z,"Market is sooo inefficient. This guy could be posting porn, dropping albums, dropping merch, going off on j3ws or millio",flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-21T23:10:30.244428Z,"yes Ye, keep talking about lauren pisciotta for a few more days",flip,flip,True +512600,2024-11-29T14:05:45.829363Z,"Just wanted to thank all, It's latenight/morning in Aus so I need to cash out majority of my yess positions and sleep, w",flip,flip,True +537132,2025-04-21T11:17:06.259205Z,"Nothing wrong with L's- we ALL take em.... but what I dislike is the attitude. We all learn, but no need for the other s",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-28T20:34:44.718051Z,"Man a lot less gloating form the no bros tonight. I wonder if they are felling sorry for yes bros, almost like there sho",flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T22:39:30.653641Z,You can buy 1$ for 34p right now,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-27T18:11:06.457131Z,"i know... 52w low/high, heads shoulders have some value but elliott waves not so much.",flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-26T02:03:54.352923Z,Y? You guys more convinced that he will launch today than yesterday?,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T07:00:58.069497Z,if he doesnt drop on solana i gotta get a job bruh,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-25T00:05:27.356718Z,He wouldn't. Just don't make sense right now.,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T00:47:17.738559Z,"Yeah obviously it¡¯s not ideal that he acknowledged that he might wants to drop a coin, but he gave key information on t",flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-26T05:41:34.367981Z,OMG WE JUST BROKE THE 85C WALL. THE NEXT RESISTANCE IS 95C,flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-20T03:43:38.492938Z,As long as there is cash in my pocket I will never stop buying NO,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-23T10:45:53.165925Z,"my dad works for nazi west, please expect nazi coin in like 2-3 business days, go buy some yes and make millions, this i",hold,flip,False +565921,2025-07-28T12:05:59.143944Z,"Allyaws the same bru, this market crazy manipulated",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-27T18:02:06.821692Z,"that would be fine for me... i'D sell at 99k or 99,5k",flip,flip,True +552872,2025-06-23T04:18:33.746514Z,https://www.strategy.com/purchases there is no purchaces between 17 and 23,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-12-01T04:27:04.319675Z,"34 minutes left, gg yes and no holders",hold,flip,False +512662,2024-11-16T18:24:37.003194Z,"Na bro, the runs not over, next run within 24h.",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T19:34:25.711777Z,"This doesn't even make any sense. There's what, ~130 hours even left on this thing and if he doesn't launch specifically",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T11:02:58.129624Z,The meatball devil is panic selling,flip,hold,False +532756,2025-04-07T12:32:33.483766Z,"Well, they announced that they did not bought any, isn't this enough for the market to be resolved or it will be too ear",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T21:04:09.201657Z,"Neither yes or no is a safe bet, it can jump really high, or really low fast",flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-29T11:55:37.293574Z,"US is sleeping now, its black fryday, everybody is happy about the thanksgiving, it will hit 100k",flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-23T04:45:40.908652Z,But you're a trump supporter though. Trump and Elon are nazis,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T23:51:18.539682Z,'NO' Holders BUCKLE UP.... WE'RE READY FOR TAKEOFF,hold,flip,False +537132,2025-04-20T12:50:18.152747Z,Saylormoon bought a lot this week,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-23T18:12:06.035887Z,@georgefloydfentanyl you will buy my no shares at 1$,hold,hold,True +548985,2025-06-09T09:58:01.110228Z,this is a once in a lifetime bet depending on someone posting a x post while shitting,hold,flip,False +547239,2025-05-31T17:13:42.823481Z,advice to both yall: no crying in casino,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-24T21:12:49.482835Z,"I haven't lost money, the bet I am on currently has not ended and odds are obviously in my favour and close to my buy in",hold,hold,True +521634,2025-02-09T20:27:46.837097Z,"If a guy called Dave Smith changes his name to Jack Smith, then buys a house, the house is in Jack Smiths name not Dave ",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-26T07:37:02.045654Z,"migga = mexican, wigga = white, chigga = chinese, jigga = jewish or japanese. Any others?",flip,hold,False +523910,2025-02-21T18:57:01.646844Z,every mstr convert in 2024 was greenshoed and oversubscribed beyond the green shoe by an average of 27%. Expect close to,flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-22T19:52:16.541318Z,Why aren¡¯t you doubling down on ¡®no¡¯?,flip,flip,True +522080,2025-02-25T23:33:24.501779Z,What is your favorite Kanye's song?,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-25T12:30:35.974309Z,Still cheap right now 1 dollar for 78c,flip,flip,True +512600,2024-11-25T07:57:19.763801Z,If you say so mac.. only takes 2 seconds to see you are spam trolling chat with NO spam thinking its going to effect the,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-23T15:40:31.602014Z,"bro you get 1,2 kkkkk but have fun with it",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T20:24:44.644445Z,"I can't believe when I started this journey, I didn't think we'd win... we're gonna win.",hold,flip,False +545512,2025-05-24T21:46:06.050654Z,ur mom told me to sell after i cummed in her,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-28T22:06:42.022735Z,everybody thank aenews for the 90 THOUSAND dono,hold,hold,True +557759,2025-07-07T11:17:13.330522Z,"Well, I can buy and hodl at the same time right? As long as he doesn¡¯t sell he¡¯s HODLing so I don¡¯t understand how th",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T19:53:14.847734Z,"Why would he scam you, you dumbo",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T13:52:14.477227Z,"People are so dumb bow2 is a bot or market maker, look at the buy amounts lol. 0.38$ purchase? Haahah",hold,flip,False +547239,2025-05-26T12:33:31.860638Z,"Well, I think this week he'll skip",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T09:10:46.338834Z,'no' holders that sold got scammed by j3ws,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-26T20:40:30.944643Z,"poor bow bow... literally, that mans gonna be on the street corner with a tin can now",flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-27T01:17:06.002928Z,"Please Lord forgive me for my greed, forgive me for mistaking a piece for the puzzle. Please let Kanye tweet the coin la",hold,flip,False +557759,2025-07-06T21:32:32.798125Z,"110k, saylor buying all btc on Sunday, no etfs today so only one logical buyer.",flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-29T11:53:49.294261Z,100k looking not so unreachable now??,flip,hold,False +537132,2025-04-21T09:02:25.692938Z,"Why is someone buying ""NO""? Statistically, MicroStrategy has always bought $BTC on Monday after the post, that¡¯s a fact",hold,hold,True +557759,2025-07-06T14:12:35.205433Z,Probably degen will buy 100k more to buy 911 with single WIN bet. Big capital wins....,flip,hold,False +552872,2025-06-22T20:00:00.211982Z,No he dont buy a cheick all wallets,hold,hold,True +528620,2025-03-24T09:19:03.507743Z,"He hasn't announced when he will buy yet though, that's the thing. We have an entire trading day to see, starting in a f",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-22T01:06:56.053575Z,imagine explaining this market to your mom when she asks where your college fund went,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-26T04:24:02.536657Z,Bro. 2800 usd is like 8 month avg indian salary. Sell now and live another day,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-20T16:57:12.298683Z,Anyone who thinks Ye is going to launch a coin before the deadline obviously hasn't waited for one of his albums before,hold,hold,True +537132,2025-04-20T15:22:32.969038Z,100k on no? bro he is gonna announce the buy tomorrow,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-21T09:46:11.775104Z,"BTW, THERE'S ONLY 1 ARTICLE ON ALL OF THIS --------------- COINDESK.",flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-22T12:16:54.466847Z,Either he will actually launch a meme coin or a memorabilia kanye challenge coin lol,hold,flip,False +545512,2025-05-21T14:35:57.838029Z,Yet not a single yes share to your name. Makes you wonder what your motives are.,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-03-01T04:47:57.984432Z,Community college about to go hard,flip,hold,False +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:47.643131Z,"December is still far away, the problem is that the buying power will be soon gone",flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-26T08:03:02.803868Z,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR_S3Y7A34U&t OMG BIANCA CENSORI IS SO HOT. Hopefully Kanye gets her pregnant,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-25T00:50:03.728661Z,OMG HE JUST LAUNCHED... SELL SELL SELL https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1894149826805149884,flip,flip,True +512600,2024-12-01T03:18:45.180065Z,"I kinda wish now that all of a sudden last minute it goes to 100k, just because of BowBow",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-03-01T04:58:52.823364Z,Contest the results if the coin drops at 12:00:001,flip,hold,False +522080,2025-02-26T07:52:23.957209Z,"???? ALERT ALERT ???? @MiyamotoMusashi is -$2,104.27",flip,hold,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c1434f8c261ef835700a5d0a42683ed2725570c5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,481 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +522080,2025-02-22T09:10:31.558414Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You will eat your words next week you smug bastard,decrease,flip,False,True,4444.2502,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T12:27:14.947722Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,The question is why they didn't buy no at 90%yes to make 10x profit. Rather than only took 2x profit bought at 50%,hold,decrease,False,True,10.197,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-01T15:37:30.334168Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,97k bitcoin and Saylor loves buying high.,hold,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T17:11:34.374414Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,trolling? Or did you actually put your entire net worth on kanye not launching a meme coin,flip,decrease,False,True,123.9,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T07:47:02.339763Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Well I think 100k too hard to break in short time it was 99 many times already,decrease,increase,False,True,249.86,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T02:48:06.906589Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,He lost $250k last week thats why he had negative pnl,hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:11:13.959747Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"The way I see it is a 50x return. First scenario is; he actually buys and I lose $100 (boo-hoo), second scenario is; he ",increase,increase,True,True,116.77,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T07:17:20.687428Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"There are no time zones you retard, everything happens at the same time, lol",hold,hold,True,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:42:49.479752Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Now we know that the whole insider thing was bullshit, the email might not have been a spoof, that¡¯s good, I guess",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T12:03:11.924814Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"pls explain, the deadline is tomorrow night...?",decrease,decrease,True,True,103.83,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-07T15:01:07.591817Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,"Actually bet is something else, it¡¯s a window of buying again till 9 June, and MSTR already purchased 705 btc on 2 June",hold,increase,False,True,1.56,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T21:16:56.150033Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"We won't let you do this to yourself, BowBow",decrease,decrease,True,True,1974.2,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T12:15:44.379864Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You sold when it was about to get good,hold,decrease,False,True,4116.9017,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:05:11.452534Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,car sells for a profit. i wait until my shares dump to 0. we are not the same.,flip,decrease,False,True,166.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T22:20:12.285481Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Think I'm outta this one, gonna ride out a few Yes but already made some profit so can't complain. See you fellas in the",flip,decrease,False,True,601.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T23:33:48.490842Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,actually whats your source for this? i dont see any news about him buying on 3 september.,flip,decrease,False,True,3518.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T20:52:53.347214Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yes but what is troll, token or chain or launch date or everything. Anyways I think the odds for no this month are bette",hold,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T06:28:54.218633Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,weirdly few days ago they already started buying and today kanye restarted the twitter..,flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T14:54:09.756832Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,So Kanye defniitely knows about this market,increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T04:18:48.624541Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,why you slowly selling your no share ...,decrease,decrease,True,True,5123.5971,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T21:43:06.796931Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,maybe need a few scam article to pay rent ?,hold,decrease,False,True,1.282,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T09:25:45.877768Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,dont know who these delusional people are but what i know for sure is thers no insider this market lacks volume for ther,flip,decrease,False,True,38.86,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T13:37:25.478291Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"he prob did, short term pain for long term gain...def btc will break 100k but not this month",decrease,decrease,True,True,1962.22,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T14:35:43.518784Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Did anybody really believe it would continue to fail at the 90k barrier until end of November with all that momentum! Th,decrease,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T14:24:51.530766Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29 no trades are at 68%... do people think that alot could happen in 1 day lmaooo",flip,decrease,False,True,38.1071,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-18T13:07:04.939255Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"WTF guy below talking there is no Eastern Monday, on Monday market work normal.... However i buy YES on 45c lets see but",flip,increase,False,True,54.8685,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T18:26:46.860131Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Guys ,its not happening at least today. We can go back to our daily lifes",hold,increase,False,True,4264.0838,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:49:56.578107Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Is your plan to actually dispute it since Kanye is no longer Kanye?,flip,decrease,False,True,834.0537,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T15:15:52.239813Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,will sell my NO who want buy it,decrease,decrease,True,True,208204.1122,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:21:58.239584Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"they only thing I regret is buying no at 80c, not 50c. We won't see 100k in the 38 hours anyway.",flip,increase,False,True,7716.2955,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T21:28:43.371563Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he's gonna express it by releasing a coin and giving it away for free to all blacks,hold,flip,False,True,435.3255,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T00:09:20.211068Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Anyone clicked on the link from kanye's latest tweet?,hold,hold,True,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T15:01:28.995791Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,how has this not resolved to 100% yet? saylor already lit the beacon with his tweet this morning,hold,increase,False,True,108.82,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T02:36:50.789506Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,How mnay times have the yes odds been this low?,hold,decrease,False,True,101.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T12:59:48.230382Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,@truthteller maybe hold this market hostage?,flip,hold,False,True,5.8719,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T14:45:43.938176Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,you're a gentleman Gregory. See you all next week.,hold,hold,True,True,24476.6938,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T12:57:42.837401Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,should I increase my No position?,increase,decrease,False,True,131.47,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T00:30:32.439304Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I like how everyone keeps filling Guwop in when he could just download Twitter,decrease,hold,False,True,966.6325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T02:34:24.609695Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm gonna take your money AND your girl, monkey",decrease,hold,False,True,4604.9024,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:33:21.728701Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Well now this market is about if he launches in time, possible delays and the 10% chance he¡¯s fully joking",flip,decrease,False,True,3729.6222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T13:32:24.325609Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Retail is trapped, see you next bull run!",increase,increase,True,True,139.5838,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:36:49.402217Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,stfu and suck his dick quit taking up chat space,flip,hold,False,True,1028.8215,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T23:57:36.907466Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Could be, seams suspicious¡­. Or just lucky lol",flip,decrease,False,True,70.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:42:24.568958Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,6mins later and we up more lmao nooby get rekt,increase,increase,True,True,3611.57,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T13:05:10.687135Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,for some reason they didnt put this article on the homepage - it's on their latest news section. thats why i didnt see i,hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:50:09.328144Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,do u actually think its gon hit 100k or u js ridng for a cash at like 98-99k value,increase,decrease,False,True,38.9803,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:42:28.883512Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,THE GUY WHO WROTE THE ARTICLE WAS A JEW BTW.... JUST SAYIN,increase,hold,False,True,3944.7672,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:16:52.471218Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,unless big daddy BlackRock comes around the corner with a check over $200M USD it might be over,flip,decrease,False,True,2271.7375,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T12:50:18.152747Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Saylormoon bought a lot this week,flip,increase,False,True,739.2423,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T22:46:33.988587Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"jeez, the tesla guy is just retarted but the others are purely evil",decrease,hold,False,True,740.0212,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-18T12:08:41.231008Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"MicroStrategy just bought a lot, no more purchases this week, and no insiders, why is the price so high, it should be ar",decrease,increase,False,True,109.9991,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T11:47:37.950846Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,crypto bros gonna pump it today,decrease,increase,False,True,219.4481,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:45:15.238211Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,What's with whites pretending to be black? @Oxymirin https://ibb.co/xK230jmS,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T22:09:37.573663Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,¡°Insiders¡± (aka scammers) are selling for a loss and still some retards are buying ¡°yes¡± thinking it has a chance,hold,increase,False,True,3120.216,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:34:37.105819Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"the fuck lmaoo. he wouldn't want to ""ruin his reputation"" with a coin but'll tweet that he's a nazi every day and make m",hold,increase,False,True,45.5014,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T06:01:51.075856Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"You have no chill. If it gets past the 99.5k barrier, then I'd be concerned.",decrease,decrease,True,True,643.4576,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T17:54:32.700943Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,yes but he never announces on monday if stock market is closed (look at 20 jan for example.) tomorrow stock market is cl,flip,increase,False,True,3518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:12:05.732909Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,lmao this market is a big scammmmmmm,flip,hold,False,True,324.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T21:26:40.888453Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,i finally agree with GuyWhoFcks,hold,flip,False,True,4132.6766,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:34:25.359183Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Try to bet in markets where you have an information edge, through news, intel, specific data, or modelling. Don't oversi",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T20:36:16.978238Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,GUYS WE'RE STILL EARLY. 'NO' TO 1 million to the moon! EOM DIAMOND HAND DIAMOND HAND,increase,increase,True,True,2191.6846,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:26:36.495911Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,you should quit your shitty day job and do this full time,flip,increase,False,True,2271.7461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:33:37.140669Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I am not saying they should be priced the same, just that the disparity shouldn't be as large as it is",decrease,hold,False,True,77.3518,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:22:53.786032Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,his next tweet makes or breaks this market. good luck nobros,flip,decrease,False,True,121.7912,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-13T12:46:00.721758Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,I read your comments and for no reason I purchased no at highest price am I cooked?,decrease,decrease,True,True,37.125,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:43:15.531957Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,You're welcome! I will tell him that you are ready now.,decrease,hold,False,True,676.1664,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:15:42.100139Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bc there is none, surely give me a dollar this is a easy 5 X, i have nothing rn and this easy no",decrease,increase,False,True,1.73,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T05:22:04.768521Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I just sold so I can buy more NO's when it goes to 95%,increase,increase,True,True,1435.6332,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:36:10.988717Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"all the no buyers are buying the other half of yes contracts. i think there are insiders still buying, but with maker or",flip,decrease,False,True,166.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:47:56.331403Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,all it takes is like 2 whales and 3 firms is all im saying...,flip,increase,False,True,1.05,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T18:59:29.307524Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah def negative for no holders that he posted the chart, but I bought a shitton of shares at 2c so could be well worth",increase,increase,True,True,966.1162,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:34:41.484506Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I think this Bark guy lost his chance (after ye unfollowed him) to rug yesterday and will be trying today. They discusse,flip,decrease,False,True,194.3236,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T07:41:48.947745Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,Are U trying to say they have raised an about already and that is paid to them...,increase,hold,False,True,55.9037,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T14:05:11.731231Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"GG¡¯s, didn¡¯t think dots would come even if he bought. Thought a press release would be needed stating it closed before",decrease,decrease,True,True,109.2851,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T14:26:16.021936Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Great, it looks like bitcoin has reached its maximum and is now flying down)",increase,increase,True,True,600.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:18:54.486354Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Holy shit. Original Zyn and aenews on usicide watch,decrease,hold,False,True,1846.3537,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T18:31:33.030506Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,His name will be carved into the polymarket's abundance of legends,increase,hold,False,True,1846.0942,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T23:18:13.585355Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,The volume being traded right now is very significant,increase,hold,False,True,17.06,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T17:53:39.458357Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I pray on every YES holders downfall,hold,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T03:57:59.477716Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I JUST CONFIRMED YE IS DROPPING APE YES,flip,increase,False,True,328.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T04:58:12.623021Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,imo I take profits around 95c ish.. it's your choice afterall,flip,decrease,False,True,6.3026,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T20:34:03.638709Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Dont worry he will drop a coin tomorrow,decrease,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T07:36:21.577677Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Look up ""white fragility"" on Google. You have white fragility.",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T10:26:40.323573Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,No i'm not talking about insiders just in general,decrease,hold,False,True,329278.188,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:53:30.417542Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,exactly allergic to accountability,flip,increase,False,True,3.0787,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:34:23.563194Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Watch how no will pump hard when absolutely nothing launches today¡­,increase,increase,True,True,3416.15,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:05:12.178217Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,What are the odds kanye gives up because its too complicated for him,hold,increase,False,True,14.2076,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T01:44:01.469642Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? NO's are still cheap get'em while you can!,decrease,increase,False,True,112.01,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T21:46:48.140777Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"As of February 9, 2025, MicroStrategy has not announced any Bitcoin purchases between February 4 and February 10. The co",increase,increase,True,True,11.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:31:59.980876Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Sam Kessler should confirm if the real CFO indeed is Hussein or Chris McKinney. This is important information that he fa,flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T14:31:23.578837Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye West, after disclosing he was offered $2 million to launch a token, asks to speak with Coinbase CEO 'concerning cr",increase,flip,False,True,1034.999,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T13:34:12.738584Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm a new and I would like to ask top holders if it makes sense to use limit orders? and how do you use them?,increase,hold,False,True,36.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:34:35.742864Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Last chance for NO to exit before it's 50/50,hold,decrease,False,True,123.7305,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:04:30.416768Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yes clowns came here and thought, 'yeah im smarter than guwop and Sh1za"" LOL",hold,hold,True,True,7235.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:06:01.128482Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Tbh bro I just doubt this number one no holder better you sell it now .. why risk for 50-60 dollars more,hold,decrease,False,True,2029.1785,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T14:10:15.548466Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Its crazy that there is literally like no time left ant you can still get free 9%,increase,increase,True,True,890.345,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T15:17:16.367729Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I voted ""NO"", got profit and pulled out. And then I voted YES on 38% mark because of pump. Now I am on 95% loss XD",increase,decrease,False,True,121.3146,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:10:26.531187Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,so you just exited at a loss cuz you were gambling with money you cannot afford to lose?,hold,decrease,False,True,4116.9017,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:09:02.115562Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"too much adrenaline, it's time to jerk off",hold,decrease,False,True,131.47,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T15:41:22.818376Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,This is such a lock I am worries about the mental capabilities of yes holders,hold,increase,False,True,41.3979,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T13:23:02.152967Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Correct!! I getting the feeling people here somt understand what a minute candle is and how its values are represented,hold,hold,True,True,2201.2848,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T09:35:10.295021Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Its probably hitting like 102k and then destroying longs with a nasty dump.,increase,increase,True,True,100.427,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T12:20:39.475028Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes thats a right brother i undestand that, but dots is enought to ppl leave market with profit, we all know tomorrow he",increase,hold,False,True,388.0197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T21:00:01.056487Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"even if Saylor is done with the ATM, he can still do a convertible note this week. Probably needs to announce it soon th",flip,increase,False,True,6349.6872,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T19:11:29.451283Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this is when gramdmas and parents get taught how to buy crypto. We still have another wave to run up,increase,increase,True,True,256.4805,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T14:32:35.204287Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,bears selling why btc pumping on weekend only because saylor is buying...,flip,increase,False,True,1897.5816,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:23:08.079827Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"no one is immune to mistakes - you are not a robot, it was really stressful, but I did not give in to the machinations o",hold,hold,True,True,7235.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T10:27:59.994794Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Your right ????any noers having second thoughts please fulfil my buy orders I¡¯ll take them off your hands for cheap,flip,increase,False,True,184.4696,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T17:35:37.751759Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,This Genius threw out a lifesaving amount for a dumbass FOMO bet on an utterly oversold ticker. Deserves the hit.,increase,decrease,False,True,1208.5762,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T02:30:42.758185Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"spoody doesn't sell, spoody gets free money on no",hold,increase,False,True,7427.9986,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T23:12:34.138225Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"It is curious that two of them picked the exact markets in the last month, even bought no 600k after they made a 8 k buy",flip,decrease,False,True,51.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:43:44.391301Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,he should market sell and fill our sell orders at 99c,flip,increase,False,True,11500.804,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T20:28:21.025992Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Who are those people still buying yes? XD,hold,increase,False,True,28192.5646,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T13:13:40.987435Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Saylor never miss To post About BTC what ever it's happened,increase,increase,True,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-04T17:28:04.481427Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,London Insider just exposed itself as corrupt BS. Watch how 'yes' will be right and people paid London Insider to post m,hold,flip,False,True,203.4938,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T15:16:44.919374Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,in between there were times when he missed posting same day after posting screenshot of previouds holding,hold,hold,True,True,142.2751,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-04T18:54:46.354406Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,It was revealed to me in a dream.,increase,hold,False,True,1017.1752,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:11:11.793582Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,But why there¡¯s so many on yes side and also hella big bets on yes why ?,decrease,decrease,True,True,950.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T23:04:18.279573Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,So if a j3w dev team uses kanye as marketing and endorsement tool than it dont count?,hold,flip,False,True,4116.9017,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:46:49.444828Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bro lost a brand new BMW M5 series..... Unless you're centi millionaire than that is quite a huge sum of money,flip,decrease,False,True,834.0537,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T18:44:55.417979Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"thanks for contributing to the cheese burger, gorilla boy :P",flip,hold,False,True,227.19,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:14:29.761647Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"0xba2cb3168709d... sold 50,000 Yes at 68.0c ($34,000)",flip,decrease,False,True,166.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:56:06.427429Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Rush my ass. You lying scumbags had me shitting my pants for something that was an easy 1-2%,flip,increase,False,True,704.5783,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:01:39.344333Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,when was last time that he did not bought near ATH ? NEVER...,flip,increase,False,True,2029.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T11:58:38.549402Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,What time does US market open? He usually tries to announce before the opening,hold,hold,True,True,720.28,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:07:16.149847Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Coindesk famous for unreliable articles, wrong CFO in email, launch delayed cause they got to know about Libra appearent",increase,increase,True,True,3611.57,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:34:08.931552Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,9th of april was Wednesday and he did bought the next monday (14/4),flip,hold,False,True,65.8695,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:53:54.961519Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,No will gradually increase with time,flip,increase,False,True,3.0787,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:33:20.128855Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,SPVs take weeks of paperwork and legal. This is really good signal he¡¯s not launching anything soon,decrease,increase,False,True,15745.6369,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:20:09.425397Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,0xba2cb3168709dc3880243586448d6d67afc2bf17 is ae news guys he was on both sides the whole time lol,decrease,hold,False,True,14213.459,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T14:29:26.745892Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,saylor didn't tweet he bought btc which he does sunday mornings,hold,increase,False,True,41.07,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T11:58:28.268538Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,5 days left on this shitshow and somehow you can still get 2.5x your money for betting on it won't happen,hold,increase,False,True,30336.6707,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T15:50:34.552666Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""Insiders"" should know Kanye is mentally unstable and he may tweet whatever he wants whenever he wants. Buying N at 90c ",flip,decrease,False,True,15.6225,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:57:27.257594Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This guy is creating generational wealth right there,increase,increase,True,True,0.3942,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:55:59.096187Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,haah bought no at 14.7c insane pull,flip,increase,False,True,17.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:56:36.596815Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This might go up and down for a while but in the end he won't endorse anything lol,hold,increase,False,True,656.5919,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:33:51.957167Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If they really ran his account they would drop a link to a shitcoin and cash out,increase,increase,True,True,2434.786,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T11:32:52.281981Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Probably made 5x by buying the NOs when Bitcoin was at 89.9K and selling them after it dipped a little,decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:32:23.663938Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,GUYS SPV = SPECIAL PURPOSE VENTURE WE ARE COOKED WE ARE COOKED,flip,flip,True,True,166.7112,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:24:43.160145Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Anyone have therapist recommendations?,flip,decrease,False,True,203700.3313,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T18:43:21.548848Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,my chinese friends will save the day,hold,hold,True,True,770.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T23:16:12.049922Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","limit sell set at 5c, hopefully doubling my money",hold,decrease,False,True,8.9631,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-26T14:28:54.833525Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"As a $MSTR holder, is there a way to hedge my stock with this Market? Is him buying / not buying bullish or bearish for ",flip,decrease,False,True,20.8595,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T18:08:03.428192Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,P sure the liquidity at 57-60 for NO side is all one dude trying to sell,hold,hold,True,True,7730.6081,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T08:00:23.619093Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,the end is nigh. No btc buying again this week.,decrease,increase,False,True,89.5152,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:07:16.850685Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Upload it to an AI detector yourself. I can't gatekeep AI detectors lol,decrease,hold,False,True,966.6325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:32:09.529652Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"It's happening, I switched sides - https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1893367647523479781",flip,flip,True,True,1623.97,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:47:30.085557Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys I sold all my YES and bought NO because I saw this: Specifically, MicroStrategy will announce details of its latest",flip,increase,False,True,2518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T11:23:23.085078Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,His trades makes no sense to me.,flip,hold,False,True,463.0124,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:33:05.960565Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i was supposed to go outside and be a productive person today but i have instead decided to stare at the twitter page of,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:11:30.587534Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"imagine you were Ye right now, I'd have the time of my life",decrease,hold,False,True,744.1725,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:21:24.547212Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,You are still the 3rd biggest holder after me,increase,hold,False,True,3100.5366,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:55:19.701969Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i'm also gay and retarded and trans,flip,hold,False,True,121.3592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:39:24.446235Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,guys ive sold all my YES and Im buying NO,flip,increase,False,True,2518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:29:25.614542Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,GUYS YOU NEED TO SPAM HIM ON TWITTER SO HE WOULD LAUCH FASTER,hold,hold,True,True,84.61,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:49:45.326461Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"almost no liquidity in the Yes buying market, if you want to get out you better do it quick",flip,decrease,False,True,2271.7461,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:05:45.829363Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Just wanted to thank all, It's latenight/morning in Aus so I need to cash out majority of my yess positions and sleep, w",flip,decrease,False,True,167.8419,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T06:53:40.395426Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"You are not providing true information, why",increase,decrease,False,True,36.5037,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:25:14.024049Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Keep bugging him about the coin on X,hold,hold,True,True,15745.6369,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T21:45:22.013411Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,What the hell is even happening here I'm so confused,flip,decrease,False,True,223.6008,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T22:01:34.704088Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I've just called Sam Kessler and he confirmed this,hold,increase,False,True,1204.6272,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T04:34:31.708194Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It¡¯s just broke niggas need to shut the fuck up when genius rich niggas is talk,flip,hold,False,True,44722.9594,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T01:46:04.709415Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You are delusional if you think that it's going to hit 100k,increase,increase,True,True,606.26,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:14:30.616908Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,nigga turned into kanye waiting for him to launch a coin,decrease,hold,False,True,322.1504,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T02:53:35.888997Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BTC always goes up after Thanksgiving, bears about to get fucked.",hold,increase,False,True,0.99,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:16:36.943606Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,My goal is to get a $10 PNL by the end of the month,decrease,decrease,True,True,4.212,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T11:30:57.403457Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,he continues to buy but there will be no rebound before 0c to empty his bags. a long descent into hell,decrease,increase,False,True,3922.6508,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:07:17.045429Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,What free money? You haven't even bet lol,decrease,hold,False,True,297.9309,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:45:06.294364Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can someone check on @bullishonsol I'm genuinely worried. He went from Zero to Hero and now back to nearly ZERO,flip,decrease,False,True,834.0537,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:04:57.766245Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,no fault in buying in at true odds,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T09:08:43.601911Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"May 26, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) is this till midnight then",decrease,hold,False,True,7023.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-23T08:25:55.246563Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",isnt no 105k just free? Ur looking at a resistance of over 1.4k bitcoins at 100k a pop. No way in 8 days that it breaks ,increase,increase,True,True,61.016,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T14:13:44.478223Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,still one of best R/R week for bears. It will be interesting. other companies are getting more debt than saylor so soon ,increase,decrease,False,True,3128.5964,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T22:01:19.900554Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,Presidents' Day: February 17 (Monday) the holiday is on monday but saylor announce in monday what he has bought during l,hold,increase,False,True,35.24,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T17:37:10.478138Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I¡¯ve made 9 bets here and I think I¡¯m addicted now,increase,decrease,False,True,258.9805,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-03T18:34:01.780624Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"MSTR almost never buys on weekends. The last purchase was on june 27 (too soon), BTC nearing ATH, we have this in the ba",hold,increase,False,True,15.3,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T10:56:11.736995Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"It should really be at 50 because he said this week, there is a 50-50 chance that it happens before saturday",increase,flip,False,True,3526.0437,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T18:19:19.591908Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Please go to 98K so I can sell and switch back to the no side.,flip,flip,True,True,1313.0076,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T09:36:43.368928Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye is a triple A artist, not some lowlife like adam22 or the hawktuah girl",increase,increase,True,True,1577.4885,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T17:12:13.602651Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"according to sam kessler, u won two days ago",decrease,hold,False,True,12818.8292,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T13:53:21.823569Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,damn. never knew my scent would give it away. But know that you've got me. Scholem brother. Visit here to learn more abo,increase,hold,False,True,65.37,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T03:50:25.145572Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,There isn't but i notice when you sell its always a 1c or a fraction of a cent off exact market sell/buy price. My guess,hold,hold,True,True,2201.2848,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T19:49:00.554406Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"finally team no, I had to decide to lose some money, but I know 100k is impossible in november",hold,increase,False,True,46.6048,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:38:07.889062Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"so are you, tryna pump yes to buy more NO for cheap",increase,hold,False,True,1.7352,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:38:43.717509Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The biggest retards of all are the ones paying for pictures of pixelate dogs,increase,hold,False,True,2434.786,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:05:40.717794Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Better to play on a winning team.,hold,hold,True,True,2802.97,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-01-31T18:31:01.276771Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,"Maybe it dumps again, I do not hope so of course!",flip,decrease,False,True,6097.6191,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T15:27:52.684685Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It will just flatline rest of Nov,increase,hold,False,True,12.45,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T15:08:20.514193Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""Kanye and his Coin"" is now a more boring story than ""Jack and the Beanstalk",hold,increase,False,True,4264.0838,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-24T10:37:40.217347Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",microstrategy already bought a huge ammount of btc not to long ago there not gonna buy again that fast,decrease,increase,False,True,28.3654,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-18T13:04:35.547946Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,On Monday US market working thats a work day.,flip,hold,False,True,54.8685,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T20:39:37.549614Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Too many news articles about Kanye launching a coin combined with him being unpredictable,increase,decrease,False,True,1.6648,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:38:11.954141Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We get the opportunity to short a scam pump to $0, what a gift",increase,increase,True,True,304.86,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T20:03:31.532053Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Guess I can turn in early tonight not much seems to be happening... mmm.,decrease,decrease,True,True,86.4056,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T06:25:37.294613Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,LOL OK GIVE ME REASON WHY HE CANT ANNOUNCE,decrease,increase,False,True,5123.5971,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-31T01:33:19.328495Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",Does anyone know if this market will be held again in February?,flip,hold,False,True,23.3,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T12:17:48.643814Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,TIME TO BUY YES IT'S NEVER GOING TO BE THIS CHEAP AGAIN,decrease,flip,False,True,3526.0437,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T19:16:49.328837Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it will hit 100k you will see bro,hold,increase,False,True,191.52,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:39:38.997225Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,THERE IS NO DELAY. IT WAS A FRAUD ALL ALONG.,hold,increase,False,True,3683.2722,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:48:37.106522Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"don't lie, several channels said that he will release it, we just have to wait a little bit",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:21:23.138293Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow is smart, be like BowBow.",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T18:47:43.337623Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,We won BY A LOT ! bowbow is a low iq person and lunatic radical left,decrease,increase,False,True,3883.8682,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T00:40:37.128664Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Gah damn, I wish I got a big payday as big as you, haha.",hold,hold,True,True,8373.1482,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:57:23.205495Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Pump this up, I want my no's even cheaper",flip,increase,False,True,79.7314,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T23:50:47.930885Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,is it comming tonight or friday night?,increase,decrease,False,True,5.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T18:28:47.055802Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bowbow pls rip through our bids again we are bored,increase,hold,False,True,21.5128,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T17:42:02.639698Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I am thinking to breakeven, this is crazy volatile!!! wdyt",decrease,decrease,True,True,196.1205,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T16:52:56.040717Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How much you wanna bet every big account on yes is Sam Kessler,decrease,hold,False,True,13497.617,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-03T19:59:29.440431Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,I¡¯m curious about one thing how did you come across this website at the first place ? It¡¯s not any popular website,increase,hold,False,True,4695.2333,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T07:29:12.244824Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Those of us who voted NO are more united. Those who voted YES, on the other hand, are full of anger and resentment.",flip,increase,False,True,298.5634,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T20:53:41.039888Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This Saturday is 22th February. Next Saturday, which happens to be Shabbat, 1 Adar, 5785, is also 1, March, 2025.",decrease,hold,False,True,668.9088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T21:58:42.659305Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,MicroStrategy will not do any purchase because simple they don't exit. The new Name is Strategy,decrease,hold,False,True,3.9999,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:14:04.440605Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nope, even when adjusted for income blacks commit way more crime",increase,hold,False,True,2434.786,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T16:54:50.481814Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,of course he texted his little rat friends before he published his article,flip,hold,False,True,12427.4037,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:32:19.518686Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,blacks commit 60% of the violent crime and they are only 13% of the population,hold,hold,True,True,4526.4535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:39:25.128578Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If it's a rumor, at least publish ALL the information, why are you withholding information that is crucial to evaluate t",flip,decrease,False,True,3729.6222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:50:11.877252Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I want to buy more but also don¡¯t want to top blast,increase,decrease,False,True,273.5393,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:56:57.190142Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,the best derisk is to go all in on yes,increase,increase,True,True,77.2106,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T13:36:30.196959Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Saylor tweets, but it could be very different this time",decrease,decrease,True,True,10.2,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:55:30.306732Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me a few bucks, this is the easiest money ive ever seen but i only have $1.6 rn",decrease,hold,False,True,1.73,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T14:25:07.415794Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Zyn will have to retire 10 years later now,increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T14:30:46.158918Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Is that so? Then why are you reducing your yes position :),increase,decrease,False,True,102.7679,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:53:25.111143Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"His instagram is Oxymirin, literally look it up. The bio in that instagram says Sergei_Miklovsh22, which leads you to an",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T20:52:06.859019Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He was at no for some time yesterday and sold that paperhand,hold,decrease,False,True,5724.53,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T14:57:45.417488Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The name of the X account is Ye but the rules say ""Kanye West"". They are not the same name, so according to the rules th",decrease,increase,False,True,232.72,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:11:09.151775Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I don't know what is happening I need guwop's guidance,flip,decrease,False,True,6748.5574,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:53:27.404995Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He launched the coin... we win,flip,flip,True,True,90.0736,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-25T21:53:17.197615Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",It looks like that's it. Only two and a half working days left : ),hold,hold,True,True,652.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T19:57:51.591241Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,99.99999999% this is not the market for anything.,flip,increase,False,True,4264.0838,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:41:56.171846Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"the last 5 hours will be the easiest to hold, the NO will probably be at 95c",increase,hold,False,True,7205.6135,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T14:08:15.737811Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How you regards holding yes are doing?,increase,hold,False,True,890.345,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T20:33:06.430167Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Big players getting out, small players getting in now",flip,decrease,False,True,4264.0838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-11T23:13:32.977075Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",bring it home i need food!!!!!,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:12:01.572487Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Lol watch big players buying no and price will go to 95 97 above,hold,increase,False,True,3827.7687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T23:56:56.985526Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"what comments? anyway, i've bought some but now TIPS has got me overthinking the price. I'm gonna trickle the hedge trad",decrease,decrease,True,True,16286.2937,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:36:47.228585Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,So does this tank in a half hour after no coin?,decrease,decrease,True,True,15745.6369,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:47:57.984432Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Community college about to go hard,flip,hold,False,True,1231.5515,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T17:22:06.230529Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Hi. I sent you some money to help. Enjoy),increase,increase,True,True,34.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T01:33:22.421105Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Idk how bowbow feels now but im sure thats not last money he has,hold,hold,True,True,808.7336,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T18:36:52.134541Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"To all the people that think that Kanye will drop a coin without any prior announcements, and at the same time making ot",decrease,increase,False,True,8430.1899,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T12:40:07.017173Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,so whay its 99 now if he stil didnt buy,increase,flip,False,True,17.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T18:57:22.162976Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I deposited 50k a few months ago I already had a good amount,increase,hold,False,True,5340.6481,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-23T08:57:15.052712Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"metaplanet bought 1111. and btc dropped to 98k. lol, bears are winning without big saylor buys.",increase,decrease,False,True,5570.6355,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-18T12:56:36.384047Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"I bet on NO and he not buy that week, now im betting on yes because free money dont watch big surge on yes because this ",flip,increase,False,True,54.8685,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:16:18.545642Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""shopify gave me my account back. i'm not gonna use it""",flip,decrease,False,True,145.9346,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T17:54:51.737018Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bowbow and btcbear are one and the same,flip,hold,False,True,35.129,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-08T22:02:39.635793Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,looks to me that someone/something bought around $580m using Coinbase Prime brokerage right after MSTR's preferreds comp,hold,hold,True,True,23639.3842,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:34:14.894428Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Ye usually doesn¡¯t drop on time.,hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T11:46:00.996329Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,No holders ready for Saylormoon posting the green dot BS posting?,increase,decrease,False,True,3550.2354,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:03:37.951954Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,cmon bro i am trying to pump our shares,flip,decrease,False,True,145.9346,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:52:03.203455Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,keep pumping so i can buy cheap nos,increase,increase,True,True,39.4703,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:47:04.352391Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,stop lying. share proof on polygon then.,decrease,decrease,True,True,6876.0182,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T19:42:38.949253Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The bullishonsol account exists to create doubt and confuse people so they flip from yes to no,increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-21T12:02:29.443642Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Maybe his love for bitcoin will find a way,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T06:16:42.689887Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I think it's VERY possible he's white and is playing the ""mediator"" role and is actually sockpuppeting.",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T02:15:51.609688Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Everyday is Christmas in the Ye house. He's probably clapping Bianca's cheeks right now. GOAT,hold,hold,True,True,110.004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T06:21:03.856448Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"ohhh it was not this friday, genius Sam Kessler meant next Friday, ok its launching feb 28 guys",decrease,flip,False,True,14153.9132,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T00:55:06.774344Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye gave me insider info that he is waiting till friday to buy. Figured I just wait till Yes is low,increase,hold,False,True,6.2384,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:45:18.830016Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"quick! buy your cheap No's, the ship is leaving",flip,increase,False,True,2058.6286,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:39:51.589251Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"we have passed the hardest part, the rest will be a comfy hold",increase,increase,True,True,6533.0605,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T12:09:05.431583Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Maybe in his head it would look like a valuable thing that adds value to his fans?,increase,hold,False,True,3915.04,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T12:43:48.492813Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,No idea.... Nigga trash fr with/without the scamcoin,decrease,hold,False,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T02:53:30.503269Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We faded the most challenging day.... Everyone thought he was going to launch today, and its almost end of monday. I thi",decrease,increase,False,True,1846.3537,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T23:28:13.491626Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"hey TIPS what's the account you bet with called? You're not GregoryBox because he's a nice guy, are you ExtraBased?",decrease,hold,False,True,16286.2937,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T22:25:15.067292Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Seeing so many complete dumbfucks losing tens of thousands felt amazing,decrease,increase,False,True,1090.345,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T15:01:36.611156Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,They would not bother to buy this,increase,increase,True,True,3526.0437,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:09:44.896287Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Type yzy in the search bar on pump fun,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:27:29.398892Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Every second that passes is in No holders favour,decrease,increase,False,True,408.6401,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T21:00:22.290451Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"On an uptrend low volume creates low sell pressure for big moves, look at the 5min over the last 8hours for example. Low",increase,increase,True,True,150.4805,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T14:36:24.163888Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,That¡¯s why I bought more :) Just in case he doesn¡¯t,increase,increase,True,True,844.6362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T13:06:02.026355Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,true but bulishinsol was up 80k and didnt sell like why man,hold,decrease,False,True,0.3272,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:25:47.957966Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bow bow market sell your shares, I want to laugh!",hold,increase,False,True,11500.804,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T15:10:18.287949Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Yesterday in the comments they were saying that today Monday when the markets opened they would take Bitcoin to the moon,decrease,hold,False,True,298.5634,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T10:21:50.011538Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Oh no. Everyone panic buy yes. This guy is the most insane reverse counter signal I've ever witnessed in my life.,decrease,flip,False,True,30336.6707,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-01-31T18:37:40.188623Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,MicroStrategy typically follows a strategy of announcing its Bitcoin purchases alongside its quarterly earnings reports ,increase,increase,True,True,1146.01,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T21:09:22.817349Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thanks to all you guys. Made some amazing trades today. Even won quite a bit with yes to buy more no¡¯s. Luck to all of ,hold,increase,False,True,1149.1668,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T21:09:11.669116Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bro you got it backwards. They just confirmed it's a mess and a total scam lol,decrease,increase,False,True,966.6325,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T04:02:41.534418Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,But they really don't know if Ye will drop a coin,hold,decrease,False,True,3526.0437,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:00:24.606703Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"lol it took me a second here, that¡¯s hilarious. Well done ??",decrease,hold,False,True,724.48,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T21:24:40.581618Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,They literally bought BTC the last 12 Mondays in a row. Hope it's not changing tomorrow lol https://www.strategy.com/pur,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:06:14.904038Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Upload the Kanye video calling out Portnoy and see if it is AI genned. Verdict: This video is very likely AI-generated.,decrease,hold,False,True,966.6325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:28:34.315227Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Rip to whoever was expecting a withdrawl from bybit,hold,hold,True,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T13:52:48.620347Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Being aware of the differences between men's dicks sounds a little gay, don't you think?",decrease,hold,False,True,7573.2448,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:58:55.109334Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,t minus 2 minutes until yesbros rekt for the last time,flip,flip,True,True,166.7112,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-15T15:33:34.922165Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"Based on your experience and the data you have, when do you think the blackout period will begin? I believe we all under",increase,hold,False,True,1990.9999,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:26:10.878663Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,pretty sad none of yall gonna be at sam and i's diddy party,decrease,hold,False,True,35402.79,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:10:21.554309Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You have had your fair share of red all day.,decrease,decrease,True,True,86.4096,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:12.649517Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"No is too cheap, that sell wall on binance ain't gonna go down that easy",decrease,increase,False,True,333.4967,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T23:38:25.890211Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Tomorrow our fate will be decided,decrease,decrease,True,True,3.2,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:05:57.702133Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Hehe I knew he won¡¯t buy he bought 1.9b worth of BTC for a reason last week,hold,increase,False,True,3827.7687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:46:36.222748Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow will live on, even if just a legend lol",increase,hold,False,True,273.5393,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T12:16:52.992554Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Did your boys used you for exit liquidity,increase,decrease,False,True,510.8878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:03:22.319636Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,One rise like today and we are there,hold,increase,False,True,53.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T18:45:03.814632Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,cause they're all jews and don't wanna work with him,decrease,hold,False,True,310.9243,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:21:37.881234Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,meet me back in here after u lose,increase,increase,True,True,38.9833,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:22:05.575273Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This is the most confusing thing ever lol, going to be the longest week",increase,decrease,False,True,430.2753,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:53:12.468536Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,sum usdt buy orders to 100k is 200 million,flip,hold,False,True,1.05,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:38:54.973455Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,The Vietnamese man will be an inside joke forever lmao,increase,hold,False,True,273.5393,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:40:50.929035Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,@patmcc88 Did you finish peeing? I cannot stop Saylor from posting any longer!,decrease,hold,False,True,676.1664,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T21:07:21.599613Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Holy shit some moron put 400k on yes and is down over 200k,increase,hold,False,True,134.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T07:41:00.130722Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"Why 9and a half? It ends at 11:59Pm, not am. It's got another 20 hours",increase,hold,False,True,65.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:34:50.227938Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,So what drove the price from 40c to 25c on no new info? There's a reason why insiders aren't buying more Y.,hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-23T11:38:39.881177Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"Ok, guys let¡¯s be honest, we have combined our praying powers, so there¡¯s no chance this ms will buy fucking btc fucki",hold,increase,False,True,63.9,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:42:15.203451Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,most entertaining market in a while,decrease,hold,False,True,102.1412,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T05:00:12.251538Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm so confused... Like is he playing 4d chess or is he actually yoloing,decrease,decrease,True,True,1846.3537,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:39:07.590423Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""The Lord is close to the brokenhearted and saves those who are crushed in spirit."" - Guwop 34:18",flip,hold,False,True,6748.5574,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T21:28:56.492366Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,if he pulls it off in time i'll rename my kid 0x0A39f55aE14384,decrease,hold,False,True,16286.2937,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-15T15:52:03.136487Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"I believe this will stop soon. A company as large as MicroStrategy, with so many employees, can't keep pouring all its m",increase,decrease,False,True,1990.9999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T01:37:04.230055Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Here¡¯s a tip. if you work, you get money",increase,hold,False,True,273.5393,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:13:21.510412Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I am definitely donating it all,decrease,hold,False,True,104056.5858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:20:15.598677Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"their ruble is in shambles, figures they turn to crypto",flip,hold,False,True,9516.9924,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:42:10.665984Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This Old man bought some of No s at 78.??,hold,hold,True,True,4264.0838,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:55:43.472621Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,IF KANYE WAS LAUNCHING HE WOULD'VE TWEETED ABOUT THE COIN AND NOT HIS SEXUAL ASSAULT ACCUSATIONS. YESBROS IN SHAMBLES,flip,increase,False,True,166.7112,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T18:23:01.574247Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yeah i know it all is fake. its still crazy twitter is that bad at managing spam/bots,hold,hold,True,True,3190.7842,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-17T12:07:05.923077Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,i wanna see patmcc88 65k shares ITM get vaporized,decrease,hold,False,True,26.6956,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:15:29.222654Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,nice time to buy some more NOs,increase,increase,True,True,1518.97,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:58:29.094303Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i would recommend against betting your life savings in this extremely volatile market,flip,decrease,False,True,1.05,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T00:15:24.833392Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BowBow officially has 2 million shares,increase,hold,False,True,73.5393,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T00:06:48.549516Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,daily candle just started we may go up 98.500 or 99.000 and come back,decrease,hold,False,True,765.7,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T17:46:30.487564Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I am waiting for the fking pump,flip,hold,False,True,79.06,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:56:55.777282Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,as well i only got $4 buck lol,increase,hold,False,True,1.7352,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:32:49.043497Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He apparently has the lines open to confirmed Yeezy employees, they can easily confirm this information. Case closed.",flip,increase,False,True,3729.6222,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-15T14:34:27.753981Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,Me? Been betting on this way before you,hold,hold,True,True,35.24,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-21T09:41:35.774142Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,that he defenetly did not buy when market pushed lower. because when he buys price stalls in place / goes up. not down.,increase,decrease,False,True,3919.8666,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T16:53:37.699835Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"tomorrow will be fun, now is not funny",hold,decrease,False,True,689.7017,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T19:12:00.505564Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Bitcoin could skyrocket or crash, but Ye wouldn¡¯t notice ,he¡¯s too locked in on crafting a masterpiece.",flip,increase,False,True,4264.0838,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T11:06:04.867384Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Will the finsl payout be the same if i hold ?,increase,decrease,False,True,618.46,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:48:19.260551Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,how did i scam? do you still think i am the other whale lol?,flip,hold,False,True,2518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T04:24:02.536657Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bro. 2800 usd is like 8 month avg indian salary. Sell now and live another day,decrease,decrease,True,True,1824.1137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:38:26.895137Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"N folks are panicking and providing the exit liquidity for the Y insiders, he's saying.",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:00:48.357842Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,genuinely dont get this market. why is no so fuckign cheap?,hold,decrease,False,True,45.5014,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T03:32:18.231607Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Omg guys, because of you I earn here more than with bitcoin itself",flip,increase,False,True,0.59,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T07:57:11.855838Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye literally uploaded 2 videos saying he was running the account, idiots still think it was sold",increase,increase,True,True,2500.0866,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T19:56:03.021336Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,EVERYBODY PLS REPORT THE LINK BELOW IT'S A SCA,increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T12:47:34.548683Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"not even close to truth, announcement just needs to be on widely accepted public outlet such as SEC (closed monday) or B",decrease,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:05:04.272783Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,As far as I can see a paid article means jack shit,hold,increase,False,True,714.5454,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:03:24.880305Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,@patmcc88 could not handle the stress lol,flip,decrease,False,True,1083.55,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:35:13.698461Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Well its still a Y if he does it in Feb,flip,hold,False,True,179.7666,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T11:49:39.451886Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Last time he bought ovwr 20k he stayed without buying for over 2 weeks,decrease,increase,False,True,342.1594,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T18:51:27.973998Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,His wording makes it sound like the thing he accomplished last week was the convert and the chart doesnt yet reflect it.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-04-30T08:56:09.722686Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,You both are impersonators - I'm the REAL!,hold,hold,True,True,57.94,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T11:40:54.339873Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,Why you destroing part of your edge? Is realy the only thing that you have to show off?,hold,decrease,False,True,159.1,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-12T23:40:01.069263Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Guys, based on my rookie analysis, price will have a deeper pullback at least below 85k.",increase,flip,False,True,22.3669,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T06:39:05.203316Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i got every baaaalenciaga boots except for the crocs,hold,hold,True,True,1961.08,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T08:58:36.806295Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Just break 96k already omg, I want my shares back cheap",increase,decrease,False,True,60.2237,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:26:41.400676Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,all guys who sold at 15 cents are now rebuying after expiriencing massive panic :),flip,increase,False,True,2029.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T22:57:29.572348Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Wow! It looks like the vacation wasn't peaceful,decrease,decrease,True,True,1013.9556,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T15:06:59.941247Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,My man had the balls to hold in to his NO position. Congrats!,increase,increase,True,True,1208.5762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:04:31.842298Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,we did it aenews. i never doubted you,flip,increase,False,True,166.7112,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T15:37:36.005294Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It looks like bitcoin broke a key trendline of support... this might be an indication that a slight correction is in pla,increase,decrease,False,True,1092.2851,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:53:02.888718Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"he is gonna lose $100,000 like a retard",flip,hold,False,True,2518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:42:10.575Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,the last thing kanye needs is more controversy. and the guy running the coin IS NOT HIM. he'll be in legal trouble and s,decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T12:41:08.710528Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,FYI the stock is still called Microstrategy across several brokerages still and the information will come from Saylor as,flip,hold,False,True,403.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T17:09:12.458607Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I have heard news that the crypto coin project is over. PLEASE SELL ALL YES SHARES. Thank you to everyone who believes ,decrease,flip,False,True,1162.0212,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:41:11.180062Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,20c at 94k few das ago 20c at 95k yesterday 20c 97k now 20c at 98.5k tomorrow ??,increase,increase,True,True,52.6209,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:04:14.919781Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,See you all tomorrow at 6pm ET,flip,hold,False,True,258.9123,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T19:01:31.490987Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Don't you think, Bow Bow is just a ghost that poly admins creates to get much more yesers into the loose quarry",hold,decrease,False,True,51.03,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T12:02:55.938513Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,did u guys just buy 99.9 for fun or did i miss the tweet?,hold,flip,False,True,34.315,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T17:54:00.659796Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Look at this rwtig guy, bruh he pumping yes",decrease,flip,False,True,1096.47,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T07:03:28.970619Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I have some 'no' shares. If Zelensky and Trump gets the mineral deal through, then thats enough goodwill and cash to sus",flip,hold,False,True,834.0537,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:54:01.334548Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,imagine explaining this market to a literal ss officer in 1943,decrease,hold,False,True,759.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T16:25:20.997347Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,He didn't buy anything...you're crazy...,increase,increase,True,True,1963.1133,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T14:32:48.222057Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I am the insider, inside ur mama",increase,hold,False,True,1034.999,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:15:23.530531Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,STOP speculators will take their profit and it will go down,increase,increase,True,True,6533.0605,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:02:22.082796Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm an insider. Kanye's team is exploring launching friday at noon. Load up on 'yes' now,flip,flip,True,True,1824.1137,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T19:38:38.703992Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,we'll never forget the name bowbow lmao,increase,hold,False,True,256.4805,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:07:14.149088Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,That's a fake coin FYI: https://dexscreener. com/base/0xCF1abF30368e36641afE93CCE8BDeA7B1Cd2a5e5,increase,hold,False,True,163.53,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T05:38:14.702964Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He's a broke loser jerking off to anime porn.,hold,flip,False,True,110.004,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:39:12.531046Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,i can hear Saylor using the ATM selling shares and buying more bitcoin right now.,flip,increase,False,True,6772.0572,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-22T14:44:12.280715Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"I mean that the question is put incorrectly. You can announce the purchase on Monday 24th, but actually buy it only in M",hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:57:10.528036Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"next week you will be talking to a super hot girl. do you really want to tell her that you held ""yes"" on the kanye memec",flip,decrease,False,True,166.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T01:31:25.813484Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Whether the account is real or fake.. If only the coin is released, the approval of yes?",decrease,hold,False,True,3375.3891,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T12:14:54.243378Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,What's the relationship between post and the purchase????,flip,decrease,False,True,350.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:25:40.176467Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Is this around the time we say GGs,decrease,hold,False,True,9.38,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:10:22.945112Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,to scam dumb people like YES holders,hold,increase,False,True,7235.835,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:08:45.318913Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yeah yeah, keep watching for the sidelines",flip,hold,False,True,264.2328,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T14:22:22.140573Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thanks. Goodluck to you as well mate.,hold,hold,True,True,8899.9597,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:56:51.211479Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,imagine they are still buying NO LMAO,hold,decrease,False,True,966.208,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T03:09:45.696254Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Token is iced out, thats all im allowed to say",decrease,decrease,True,True,11.5841,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-28T05:53:44.101253Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",this will definetely dip hard today,increase,increase,True,True,196.7167,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T09:39:06.070227Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Fuck. Now I have yo Sell m'y shares,hold,decrease,False,True,134.4504,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-03T11:21:02.135774Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"There are many insiders on the purchase side, and there are many people who only registered in July with a shareholding ",decrease,increase,False,True,1440.5866,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T05:55:09.545408Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Even rich guy still need breathing man. He has done strike buy in 1 months with 90x .,hold,decrease,False,True,1007.66,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-05T15:29:55.294533Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,You are really a certified Retard,increase,hold,False,True,1995.5964,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T06:27:37.853753Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"9 hrs and 30 min to go, tick tock",increase,increase,True,True,1906.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T14:43:26.215022Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine having to explain to your wife and kids that you lost 100k on this shit LMAO,increase,decrease,False,True,3526.0437,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T07:44:02.837744Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Haha clock is ticking and less and less time and people buying YES , LOL ??",increase,flip,False,True,9.7,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T14:32:53.418803Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,How the fuck price not at 99.9c?,hold,decrease,False,True,1459.2589,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:46:19.561168Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,that's the nature of a gentlemen's bet,hold,hold,True,True,7716.2955,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T03:54:00.822003Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,It should be at least a 55/45 since he has 40 hours to announce an acquisition when he usually does it within a day.,decrease,increase,False,True,643.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T12:28:28.300117Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,still 40 hours left for him to announce,hold,hold,True,True,3.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:03:09.418668Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This guy might have inspect element too... https://x.com/skesslr/status/1892875055563984978/photo/1,decrease,decrease,True,True,104056.5858,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T20:19:44.834704Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,don t be rude losse are always hard,decrease,decrease,True,True,25.8207,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T08:16:37.731605Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,You get why Saylor is posting on X nonstop last couple days? He needs to maintain the momentum without creating fud,decrease,increase,False,True,3264.5238,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:37:28.156322Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,That what your sis said last night,increase,hold,False,True,4588.8664,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:07:20.569929Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"now i'm paranoid that my desktop is gonna be slow, gonna get my phone out.",increase,hold,False,True,25024.2139,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T23:09:11.071711Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,So much bullshit on twitter GIVE ME 15c NO SHARES,increase,increase,True,True,790.8954,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:42:56.970586Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bowbow mate sell, you got enough for buying a nice house in Italy",decrease,decrease,True,True,182.4202,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T12:18:06.297705Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,They announced pricing of Strike Preferred Stock Offering and there are no news from MSTR that the sale of stocks is fin,flip,increase,False,True,714.7339,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T14:48:31.607751Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"MSTR shareholder after all, like many of us here are i'd imagine.",decrease,hold,False,True,43263.2619,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T19:24:33.190186Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If he wanted to make money for his friends/coworkers, he would just pay them more",increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:27:46.664495Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,dude.... reply If somebody don¡¯t hit me back immediately It¡¯s an immediately block Always remember I¡¯m more,decrease,hold,False,True,4604.9024,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:44:23.764827Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Are we all aping $yzy at launch to make it all back,flip,increase,False,True,207702.4203,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T10:30:29.462166Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"noers you should totally sell, i'd love to buy the shares for cheapers :3",flip,hold,False,True,38.1071,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T15:19:39.497553Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,buying yes with this chart setup is sigma risk.,flip,decrease,False,True,46.9699,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T02:15:51.609688Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Everyday is Christmas in the Ye house. He's probably clapping Bianca's cheeks right now. GOAT,hold,hold,True,True,110.004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:21:32.676539Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"ok? also wtf u signing shit, we aint blind idoit",increase,hold,False,True,1.7352,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:29:51.795193Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If he launch it, you guys think it¡¯s will be on solana?",hold,hold,True,True,772.9,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T18:22:48.960363Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,ye i fked with the yes shares and got cooked,hold,decrease,False,True,43.67,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:39:53.281292Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I realised 11 nov was a public holiday so SEC was closed BUUUUUUT US Stock market was still open.,flip,hold,False,True,2518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T12:36:54.413552Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Can someone explain why the price dump?,flip,decrease,False,True,281.9998,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T23:40:46.969273Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,hope is fading. time will always tell. No is strong,decrease,increase,False,True,184.3496,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T17:55:14.117347Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i hope it hits so you BowBow haters stop hating he sees a bigger picture trust,hold,flip,False,True,1.6025,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T06:30:34.863798Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,wait does that apply also if you're in the red in that morning?,flip,decrease,False,True,86.4096,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-02-03T13:05:19.835163Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,Just announced on twitter that saylor didn¡¯t buy anything. Gg,decrease,increase,False,True,11260.4108,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T13:44:54.820463Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Just put your liquidity in the bag,flip,increase,False,True,184.4696,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:53:12.000438Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Not if you go to his activity via profile link.,flip,hold,False,True,1066.08,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:09:12.810689Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"if hes gonna launch or not a coin, no one knows. but anyone that thinks the pumpfun coin is the official one is beyond r",decrease,hold,False,True,56.77,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T20:17:33.088392Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","i won't give you my balls, keep dreaming, poor",decrease,decrease,True,True,1517.4703,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T11:38:24.249542Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I dont think it will dip to 80k. Strong support @ 91.5k,decrease,increase,False,True,11463.7462,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T23:57:50.375038Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,after a 5 min new daily candle will open and it more seems like it can hit 100k today.,decrease,flip,False,True,765.7,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T04:45:42.517082Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Come to Daddy now, come baby come...",hold,increase,False,True,8937.0661,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:49:38.896772Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,when are u gonna understand i am not that nigga?,flip,decrease,False,True,2518.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:27:12.124756Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woofwoof are you an insider. you can tell me. i'm just trying to make it, like you. i wont snitch i promise. you can tel",flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T08:08:22.128352Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,You are just nigga with rocket launcher ?,hold,hold,True,True,689.7017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T06:26:58.758671Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,can you link the tweet? I need something to give me the confidence to hold this position I'm crashing out,hold,decrease,False,True,4826.12,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T11:40:15.112624Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"Why cant I sell? Bought at 6 Cents, No is at 15 cents but I can only sell for 3 cents",increase,decrease,False,True,99.9708,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:26:55.120072Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Yea shiting pants is part of it for sure,decrease,decrease,True,True,1801.4536,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:28:10.748828Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"any chance of btc coming back up to 98k over the weekend, 5 - 10% ?",decrease,decrease,True,True,3510.0479,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:22:07.574572Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"No people trying so desperately to pump price. If they were so sure, wouldn't they do the opposite for cheaper shares...",decrease,decrease,True,True,283.9539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T17:01:51.650804Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"yeah, but the 97k has a huge wall :(",hold,decrease,False,True,171.3146,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T07:12:59.313663Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,because it gives his company a push for the wall street,decrease,hold,False,True,208204.1122,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:43:34.799841Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"HE LAUNCHED IT AND DELETED THE TWEET,",hold,flip,False,True,3526.0437,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:29:39.774771Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i hope btc gets to like 99.5k ill all in,increase,flip,False,True,38.9803,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:48:57.700789Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Buy more yes we need to buy cheaper no xD,decrease,flip,False,True,100.4547,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:31:17.975867Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Why the second I decided to buy ""NO"" it jumps to 37???",flip,flip,True,True,0.3942,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:41:48.709075Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,53 hours and 37 minutes and you will be getting a nice payout!,increase,increase,True,True,52.65,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T22:32:57.441051Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,bro if u check my other comment i already explained. saylor has never announced a buy on a day the US market is closed.,flip,increase,False,True,3518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T15:17:16.367729Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I voted ""NO"", got profit and pulled out. And then I voted YES on 38% mark because of pump. Now I am on 95% loss XD",increase,decrease,False,True,121.3146,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:31:49.582778Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"good shit, wishing you a wealthy bear market",hold,increase,False,True,7427.9986,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T10:57:10.461939Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Why when i try to cashout it wants to cashout at 3c when its at 23c,increase,hold,False,True,618.46,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T09:10:04.736185Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Ye will most likely read my comment,decrease,hold,False,True,4444.2502,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T15:48:06.302357Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"But he will launch his coin in February, that's an easy 10x",flip,increase,False,True,14.7225,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:31:02.898164Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Girlfriend wants to go to the beach.. how do I tell her?,flip,hold,False,True,424.4728,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T04:07:29.913483Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"Next set of dates end on the weekend. Does this mean it'll end on no regardless, or will he post (if he buys) on the wee",increase,decrease,False,True,811.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T15:32:52.914794Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Tried to time the Friday market and lost all my capital.. slowly building back up now,flip,decrease,False,True,184.4696,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T11:09:05.843078Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,He usually announces in the next 1-2 hours between 12-13 UTC,increase,hold,False,True,1476.13,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T19:04:35.478076Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,im still waiting for the address bro.,decrease,hold,False,True,8215.8427,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:36:28.664687Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yes raises by like 3 cents and you've already got keyboard warriors acting like it's over,decrease,hold,False,True,384.9068,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:04:42.284588Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Only regret that I didn't get a chance to buy now,increase,decrease,False,True,163.53,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T08:31:19.022918Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"""Conclusion: While some market analysts and enthusiasts are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching or exceeding the $100,000 ",decrease,decrease,True,True,174.6129,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T14:46:33.385079Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,the post of saylor was not even confirmation that he bought bitcoin ??,increase,decrease,False,True,48.51,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T16:33:36.542465Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,who is the nigga buying all these goddamn shares,decrease,hold,False,True,640.1608,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:02:23.197784Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm mixed race (black/white) and have a white girlfriend. Cope and seethe.,hold,hold,True,True,110.004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T15:42:37.283645Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,hes probably running out of money,hold,decrease,False,True,1.05,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:41:44.779287Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Been here 2 months this comment section is the best so far haha,decrease,hold,False,True,595.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:18:10.392481Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yes with a spoofed email address,hold,flip,False,True,3683.2722,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T09:25:19.769881Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"After he killed himself, they made him into a meme coin and pumped it...",decrease,decrease,True,True,4444.2502,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T17:26:49.092227Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,wont hit 100K i advise u to sell when yes is at 40c if it gets there,decrease,increase,False,True,2731.6099,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T05:57:08.141196Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,they are just making a new merch site because the shopify got banned,increase,increase,True,True,2125.93,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:48:56.268008Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,we are fine. thank the lord ??,flip,hold,False,True,2058.6286,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T20:58:30.985353Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,No one gonna fall for this shit anymore scammer hahahah,increase,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T19:30:56.189855Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"+5% in the last 24h, so +3.5% in the next 3 days can be easy.",increase,increase,True,True,4.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-02-02T13:56:45.964088Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,"@ExtraBased thank you sir, would suck your cock if I could",decrease,hold,False,True,67.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T23:26:10.886819Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,Please sell me all the No you want under 25c,hold,increase,False,True,82.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T12:35:32.255441Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,i knew this time felt weird lol,flip,decrease,False,True,634.37,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T19:48:35.355585Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Feels like a calm before a storm if I honest.,decrease,hold,False,True,86.4056,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:23:06.160644Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Jim Circus about to destroy my account:(,increase,decrease,False,True,273.5393,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:37:49.885363Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,STAY OUT OF THIS MARKET!!! WARNING TO ALL PEOPLE CONSIDERING BUYING NO: STOP!!! INSIDERS ARE CASHING IN ON BOTH THIS AND,hold,decrease,False,True,72.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T17:52:13.892134Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"after a big dump, there must big a pump, right...?",flip,decrease,False,True,79.06,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-27T18:52:43.490339Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Do yall think i'll hit 100K this week?,hold,decrease,False,True,550.117,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:56.599679Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,very weak buy hands on BTC chart,hold,decrease,False,True,171.3146,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T09:34:33.860669Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,Im confused. What if he buys bitcoin but does not announce it?!?!?!,increase,decrease,False,True,18.98,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:14:23.153396Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I¡¯m thinking to put 50k usdc on no,decrease,increase,False,True,950.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:07:25.382783Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye could be le3king s3xtapes right now or releasing new album or collabing with n3ck fluentes.... The million of thin,increase,increase,True,True,2075.6963,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T13:06:53.069957Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Uzbekistan is already pumping it to 98.5,flip,increase,False,True,194.5643,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T10:12:27.745215Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,and a binace hot walet with to much dollar i thinks,decrease,hold,False,True,39.1077,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:32:12.418424Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,HAHAHAHA Easiest money I have ever made,flip,increase,False,True,4005.6902,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T12:47:14.254678Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,where??? the center of the dot is behind july in the chart,flip,decrease,False,True,65.8695,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-10T12:36:17.369181Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Can anyone tell me where the end time of 11:59 on February 10th refers to?,hold,hold,True,True,101.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..db67101dce36ad167038f30adf746a715fc9a1ce --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,481 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +522080,2025-02-21T16:13:37.220615Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Noo zyn is doubling down on yes,flip,flip,True,True,3729.6222,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T00:19:02.913687Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I must admit i was worried about the magical 28th november date, but that's over now... All in on nothing ever happens",hold,increase,False,True,2499.5772,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T04:41:03.287367Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I don¡¯t think there are any but some people alluded to the top NO holders giving off insider vibes since this is their ,hold,decrease,False,True,184.1133,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-26T17:05:25.068709Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I'm scared that the FOMC meeting will cause BTC to hit 110K.,decrease,decrease,True,True,511.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T19:19:40.018541Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"smart, do what u gotta do bbroy",hold,hold,True,True,2731.6099,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-26T13:55:49.774109Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,@pbshine are we fucked actually and we trapped not NO side ?,increase,decrease,False,True,25.45,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:14:05.344058Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The funniest thing is that I was accused of being an idiot and that Kanye would actually launch a coin,decrease,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-12T16:40:09.572716Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",fasten your seat belts for 250k,hold,increase,False,True,45.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:10:29.647692Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The retards are exit liquidity for the so-called ""insiders"". What a sight.",flip,increase,False,True,3729.6222,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T07:03:07.851932Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,lolYou are either an accomplice of these scammers or you are just an idiot.,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T13:31:51.772927Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wherefore, as by one man Zyn entered into the world, and death by Zyn; and so death passed upon all men, for that all ha",flip,hold,False,True,176672.9901,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:27:26.189359Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Turns out Hussein is real afterall,decrease,hold,False,True,97.35,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:02:10.744861Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"As long as we have each other, we're fine",hold,hold,True,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:10:12.596125Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It pretended to be an official YZY verified acc,decrease,decrease,True,True,1266.1207,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:40:36.441606Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,GOOD NEWS FELLOW YES VOTERS! BILLIONAIRE ELON MUSK JUST SAID ON X HE WILL PUMP BITCOIN WITH 3 BILLION SHEKELS HE GOT FRO,flip,flip,True,True,4108.94,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T04:35:04.116287Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"So regardless of the amount of the transaction, there's a flat fee, which I know is 10 cents, right",flip,hold,False,True,4602.5012,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T13:56:54.204593Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Come to the crypto casinos with me while we wait to collect that bag,flip,increase,False,True,1119.2128,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-23T10:39:42.111361Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Crypto is affected by stock market,hold,hold,True,True,245.8155,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:47:57.984432Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Community college about to go hard,flip,hold,False,True,1231.5515,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-23T21:56:51.606422Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Did you see 118k for yes someone bought, I¡¯m shocked",increase,flip,False,True,10.9,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T21:14:04.301324Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Ahahahahahahaah alphax a name a guarantee,increase,hold,False,True,1380.3566,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:59:27.331076Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Zyn will sell YES soon. He is the most panic guy i ever seen,hold,decrease,False,True,7235.835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T18:54:37.118842Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I guess you weren't around during the first bubble just before Christmas.,flip,hold,False,True,8126.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T21:33:51.363354Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"go figure it out, i'm too retarded to help you. i can barely help myself.",decrease,decrease,True,True,19498.8239,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T15:48:06.302357Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"But he will launch his coin in February, that's an easy 10x",flip,increase,False,True,14.7225,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T10:18:12.523751Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"The @Strategy X account typically announces Bitcoin purchases between 7:45 AM and 8:45 AM EDT, shortly after a press rel",hold,hold,True,True,654.73,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T09:10:58.470498Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Not to be downer but, what does bitcoin import form China, which will effect it's bottom line?",decrease,decrease,True,True,86.9765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:17:04.515446Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,sending our thoughts and prayers,decrease,decrease,True,True,114.1475,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:37:22.422188Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I get it, but Kanye is a serial delayer of projects. He might get into crypto and drop his coin one day. Will that day b",decrease,increase,False,True,167.025,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T15:00:33.377034Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,back to 91 in 5 minutes lmaooo,flip,hold,False,True,63.704,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T16:31:56.291817Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"nice copium from an uncredible reporter :D And good morning, his acc was never sold too",hold,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T01:08:10.035968Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"we already know they technically can. but they never have and if you look at 20 jan, they waited a day",flip,hold,False,True,3518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T06:46:01.363046Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,being conspiracy minded is a bad thing? Conspiracy meaning: a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:26:06.216727Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,that shit never got confirmed btw,hold,hold,True,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-28T22:37:17.761153Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",buy 110k YES now! im in at 11cents and others can get in at 8cents...right atfib retracement zone on minor pullback now.,hold,increase,False,True,1374.1264,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T23:13:36.936016Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Last chance to sell your No a short squeeze on the horizon??,flip,decrease,False,True,2451.1362,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:14:42.859032Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,literally not that many people gaf. get out of ur bubble,decrease,increase,False,True,14762.3403,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:16:43.879027Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"there's plenty of money available for me to flip my position if he posts the chart, i just gotta be quicker than everyon",increase,hold,False,True,25024.2139,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-08T12:08:57.924862Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,He posted but it doesn¡¯t say that they acquired additional bitcoins??,hold,decrease,False,True,1.56,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:19:38.600761Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,this is the greatest market the world has ever seen,flip,increase,False,True,166.7112,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-21T20:13:18.695548Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Everyone now waiting 100k this month but it will hit only 99k mark my words i know how it works,decrease,increase,False,True,18.85,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-03T13:32:44.415403Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,yeah( I hope to sell NO at 0.50 and there buy yes. God please,increase,flip,False,True,855.26,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:55:37.293574Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"US is sleeping now, its black fryday, everybody is happy about the thanksgiving, it will hit 100k",flip,increase,False,True,2959.2699,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T04:59:02.473434Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I tried MYWIFEISSOFUCKINGHOT and BIGTITTIEZYEGOD and neither worked. I'm fresh out of guesses,increase,decrease,False,True,536.6325,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:40:19.275047Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,MICROSTRATEGY HAVE NEVER EVER ANNOUNCED A BUY ON A DAY WHEN US STOCK MARKET IS CLOSED,flip,increase,False,True,2518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T02:01:28.794275Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"For those of you bought yes, just look at the binance order book and see there sell order of 1281 bitcoin at the price 1",decrease,hold,False,True,508.22,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:54:34.550508Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm mixed too. MIXED RACE IS THE FUTURE,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:26:41.400676Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,all guys who sold at 15 cents are now rebuying after expiriencing massive panic :),flip,increase,False,True,2029.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T15:55:27.340766Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If kanye could stick to his will, I would buy every one of his albums.Seriously, I'm already listening to his songs and ",increase,hold,False,True,15918.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:45:06.294364Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can someone check on @bullishonsol I'm genuinely worried. He went from Zero to Hero and now back to nearly ZERO,flip,decrease,False,True,834.0537,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-23T08:30:06.880009Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,right now im in his house. he told me he will buy only after the war,hold,hold,True,True,3.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:17:51.088113Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,woooo YES now my YES order is being filled. keep buying NO guys,decrease,increase,False,True,8215.8427,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T04:27:04.319675Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"34 minutes left, gg yes and no holders",hold,hold,True,True,28198.3646,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:58:07.989695Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Is it possible to buy the coin at a good price if everyone is waiting,hold,hold,True,True,37.8329,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-17T16:24:21.767119Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,then what??? im an evil mastermind? lol,decrease,hold,False,True,3611.34,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-28T11:31:52.112385Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Very risky but fuck it dump to 75k today,decrease,decrease,True,True,521.81,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:27:12.124756Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woofwoof are you an insider. you can tell me. i'm just trying to make it, like you. i wont snitch i promise. you can tel",flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T18:11:58.390602Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Saturday is a possibility but too early. whole Crypto market is down repeted rugpulls created negative sentiment in the ,flip,decrease,False,True,4264.0838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T07:47:50.474773Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"massive sell orders around 99k, people need to take their profit",hold,increase,False,True,18.79,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T13:11:44.560783Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"??????BREAKING?????? ??????TRUMP SET TO SIGN EXECUTIVE ORDER ADDING LEAP DAY TO FEBRUARY LATER TODAY, AND IT WILL BE CAL",flip,hold,False,True,12715.8105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:12:01.572487Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Lol watch big players buying no and price will go to 95 97 above,hold,increase,False,True,3827.7687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T12:30:20.610671Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,So people are betting thousands of dollars that Kanye actually meant next friday when he said next week? XD,decrease,hold,False,True,4444.2502,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:45:43.463804Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""jewish people aren't telling me what to do"" YESBROS STUNNED ONCE AGAIN.",flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T08:27:39.396698Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Why do so many people vote yes?,increase,hold,False,True,99.9708,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T12:04:56.755102Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"Welp, kinda done with this polymarket bs at this point. Fuck manipulation.",increase,decrease,False,True,811.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T16:16:45.523441Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Yes. He has done this in past too.,decrease,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-26T08:58:41.953014Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",Hopefully I don't win these 6 dollars,decrease,decrease,True,True,1.4412,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T04:38:50.196794Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,He says he will buy 3 billion worth of bitcoin but not on this monday,flip,hold,False,True,778.946,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T20:41:57.803681Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,oh boy i think you're a little behind at this point,flip,flip,True,True,3729.6222,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T11:42:20.901526Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"WTF bigger holders on YES with 50K Just did this bet and registered this month, manipulated?",increase,decrease,False,True,39.78,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:28:42.594352Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"y¡¯all have some short ass memory, remember we¡¯ve been in the exact same situation 24h ago, kanye tweets don¡¯t mean sh",decrease,increase,False,True,759.75,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T18:19:19.591908Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Please go to 98K so I can sell and switch back to the no side.,flip,flip,True,True,1313.0076,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-28T05:53:44.101253Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",this will definetely dip hard today,increase,increase,True,True,196.7167,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T18:57:19.517694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm all in. No standing back, no backing down. This is where legends are made. STAND YOUR GROUND! HODL!",increase,increase,True,True,2075.6963,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T02:30:51.049014Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Guys, let¡¯s be honest, none of us can predict with 101% certainty what will happen. So, let's stay optimistic and remem",increase,decrease,False,True,1240.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T22:17:34.111948Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,don't think he was talking about basketball bro... ????,increase,hold,False,True,77.2106,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:25:12.828775Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,27th or 28th is the date have some relation to nazi,decrease,decrease,True,True,27370.9883,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T05:03:10.887253Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Id like to thank my Diamond hands. Also bowbow i hope youre okay mate,hold,hold,True,True,17948.6607,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T00:56:30.220587Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"If someone wants cheap ""No"" am selling for 94c",decrease,increase,False,True,26904.9498,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:55:53.379663Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,MICROSTRATEGY HAVE NEVER EVER ANNOUNCED A BUY ON A DAY WHEN US STOCK MARKET IS CLOSED. IT will be closed on monday so NO,flip,increase,False,True,2518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T00:45:01.617684Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,thanks for the info. I learned something,hold,hold,True,True,56.567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:13:55.512253Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Rough calculation. We are about $3600(4%) away from 100k, in crypto you know 4% is nothing lol",flip,increase,False,True,273.5393,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:06:00.637095Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,good thing I checked polymarket now,increase,hold,False,True,82565.5138,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T02:14:30.733081Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bowbow keeps buying YES ??. Legend! By the way, the way he buys seems like a bot ??",hold,increase,False,True,999.75,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T17:21:16.781554Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,tomorrow 95k support and pusing 97k-98k again,flip,increase,False,True,2299.3251,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T11:17:12.434971Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The key to gambling is to never give up and always double down, only cowards lose",decrease,increase,False,True,4444.2502,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:54:55.387645Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I want to buy more at 20 cents,decrease,increase,False,True,76.55,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:15:20.295506Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"4% away and a 70% chance of not happening? Do the math, yes is about to explode",flip,increase,False,True,273.5393,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:06:43.465573Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,aenews hasnt sold what are you talking about,decrease,hold,False,True,85.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T17:41:18.762303Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,then you are the only one in the world who loses money with insider trading LOL,increase,hold,False,True,131.47,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-04T12:33:51.713298Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"tf u want us to google, they were right last week",hold,hold,True,True,3.04,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T16:47:17.216629Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,i dont get it. The bitcoin tracker image he tweeted doesnt seem like he bought any bitcoin after Jan 31st-ish. I just bo,increase,increase,True,True,7.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T18:09:30.610056Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he said lots of controversial things though),increase,decrease,False,True,310.9243,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T12:06:57.791886Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Look who is the rertard now (me),hold,decrease,False,True,5245.3801,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T21:28:16.038274Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,the evidence is that there is a prediction market with a 50% chance for yes. Ouroboros logic at work,flip,decrease,False,True,744.1723,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-17T16:16:17.245525Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I think BTC will hit 110K this month.,hold,hold,True,True,314.29,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-23T13:08:11.341817Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,it's in the publication he shared,increase,hold,False,True,907.77,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:56:24.027561Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"thats his thing he does before he releases albums, he is just getting attention, he wont and inturn im betting money on ",increase,increase,True,True,1.7352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:38:53.721002Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Its gonna be hilarious if he actually launches the coin,hold,hold,True,True,5533.7285,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:55:43.472621Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,IF KANYE WAS LAUNCHING HE WOULD'VE TWEETED ABOUT THE COIN AND NOT HIS SEXUAL ASSAULT ACCUSATIONS. YESBROS IN SHAMBLES,flip,increase,False,True,166.7112,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T10:21:50.118967Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"after analyzing the pattern of Strategy X account, they typically announce between 7:45 and 8:45 AM EDT to catch the pre",hold,hold,True,True,654.73,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T19:55:29.631093Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Dude me some $ ?? I¡¯d appreciate it fr even like a few dollars ur up like 11 grand surely u cs. Help us out yk,hold,decrease,False,True,12.318,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T07:02:55.939565Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Why can¡¯t you see my message on holder ??,increase,hold,False,True,11.208,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T19:27:56.975762Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","super rare ""Skibidi Sigma Crown"" pattern just appeared meaning btc will go to $104,999 before falling to $50,000.",hold,flip,False,True,227.2932,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:14:54.155436Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"YES is undervalued, 90c fair price",increase,flip,False,True,1846.0942,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:05:12.491157Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"looking at bowbow, the price literally dropping by the minute, time running out is rather entertaining",increase,increase,True,True,52.1715,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:46:19.561168Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,that's the nature of a gentlemen's bet,hold,hold,True,True,7716.2955,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T21:25:28.479586Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Call him i need to buy lunch for the kids,flip,hold,False,True,139.0735,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T22:38:58.424745Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"IF YOU CAN'T TAKE THE HEAT, STAY OUT OF THE MOTHERFUCKING KITCHEN, WIGGA!!!",hold,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T19:35:58.809478Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"I always win, check my records",flip,increase,False,True,851.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:30:42.356611Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Come on bro only making 30 dollars ??,increase,decrease,False,True,434.2581,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-22T05:59:58.968128Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Are u noob? He posted chart on JAN 20 (Monday) because stock market dont work that day, and he buy next day which tuesda",hold,increase,False,True,307.02,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:46:31.751404Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This feels like a combination of the easiest and fastest money ever on no and yet I've never been more scared on Polymar,increase,decrease,False,True,22363.918,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:28:13.157363Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,They are going to wait until everyone is sleeping and sell,hold,hold,True,True,4444.2472,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-23T12:43:56.284633Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"Well, you don't even need to advertise, but it seems like advertising for him is an obligation.",hold,hold,True,True,14.38,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T21:24:36.246225Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Poor rwtig keeps buying and selling,flip,decrease,False,True,139.0735,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T11:02:22.400572Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye told me he is just pumping rumors to buy cheaper NO shares here.,increase,increase,True,True,510.8878,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T10:24:05.138459Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I would sell while you are still in profit, probably won't be getting any better than this",decrease,decrease,True,True,278.2826,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-07T09:50:35.496476Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,"Yes it was on June 2, look at strategy balance sheet, it clearly states last buy was on 2 June, so yeah if he didn¡¯t po",hold,hold,True,True,1.56,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:26:43.368115Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I could be watching a show or playing a game rn as I don't plan on betting, but I can't keep my eyes off of this market ",flip,hold,False,True,6748.5574,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:01:42.767307Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Why? It's still very likely that it was a scam email.,flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:48:56.268008Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,we are fine. thank the lord ??,flip,hold,False,True,2058.6286,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T23:55:29.157689Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'M LOCKED IN. I'M HOLDING TO 100C OR 0C... NOTHING IN BETWEEN,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-24T16:46:15.114439Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",What ist this limit thing by buying or selling can someone explain,flip,hold,False,True,15.026,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:34:45.861204Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The ***exit liquidity*** is buying,flip,decrease,False,True,3729.6222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T12:36:54.413552Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Can someone explain why the price dump?,flip,decrease,False,True,281.9998,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T12:48:11.970886Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bowbow still dropping money on yes jesus,increase,decrease,False,True,244.1405,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:38:28.901376Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I would laugh so hard if btc hits 100k on Monday,decrease,flip,False,True,28314.9498,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:07:44.037342Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,But if Yes will win the short jump won't matter ain't it?,hold,flip,False,True,6137.3629,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T16:54:57.416482Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,read the rules carefully... Microstrategy is not Strategy,hold,hold,True,True,2205.1926,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:55:19.701969Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i'm also gay and retarded and trans,flip,hold,False,True,121.3592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-13T12:24:42.707172Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,GG to No holders ... im cooked,decrease,flip,False,True,143.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T15:34:00.302715Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"thank you for the insight, but your buy is so small and you are 30K in the hole",increase,decrease,False,True,888.08,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:26:09.259251Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,this nigga kanye dont know nun about no bybit ??????,flip,increase,False,True,3729.6222,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T07:57:11.855838Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye literally uploaded 2 videos saying he was running the account, idiots still think it was sold",increase,increase,True,True,2500.0866,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T04:20:01.089566Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,you had 40k to buy yes before why you not buying more no shares now,decrease,decrease,True,True,5123.5971,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T00:23:55.040393Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If you're trying to trade outcome instead of volatility on a Kanye market you are in for a paddling,hold,decrease,False,True,0.0725,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:54:36.938261Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I bought some Yes for the lols, Imagine if bowbow gets out at 12c at massive loss and we hit 100k??",flip,decrease,False,True,552.4193,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:47:30.085557Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys I sold all my YES and bought NO because I saw this: Specifically, MicroStrategy will announce details of its latest",flip,increase,False,True,2518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T15:45:44.977045Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You forgot about the most important one Guwop,flip,hold,False,True,12715.8083,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:31:02.898164Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Girlfriend wants to go to the beach.. how do I tell her?,flip,hold,False,True,424.4728,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T20:12:52.083408Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he's gonna launch an entire blockchain? IN 4 DAYS?,hold,increase,False,True,3524.9596,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T18:23:52.539347Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i think polymarket is easy,profitable than trading on broker account xd",hold,hold,True,True,26.43,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T00:48:14.089252Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,thank you sellwallsan for moving your price point,flip,hold,False,True,1167.2753,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T17:52:02.314751Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"they don't need saving, only patience.",hold,hold,True,True,7427.9986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:46:31.156923Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Not trying to be a downer or point fingers, just find it strange that ita not coming up in activity.",flip,decrease,False,True,1066.08,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T06:17:20.504593Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Is originalZyn trying to see how much he can lose in this market? Impressive!,flip,decrease,False,True,278.5352,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:53:40.361199Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,actually please sell your no shares so i can buy cheaper,decrease,flip,False,True,6876.0182,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T13:24:50.311268Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,never felt more offended. i am actually not jew and not living in isreal?!,decrease,hold,False,True,65.37,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:09:44.615525Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Isn't this pretty obvious at this point?,flip,increase,False,True,3729.6222,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:24:32.665946Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woofwoof9 bought 21,329 Yes at 46.9c ($10,000) The donation will go towards a good cause my friend.",decrease,flip,False,True,22.0109,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:28:15.208714Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye is currently crashing out,increase,hold,False,True,696.8454,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T17:33:15.497817Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,YES HOLDERS I BRING GOOD NEWS! I HAVE JUST RECIVED WORD THAT ANDREW CAKE WILL PUMP BITCOIN WITH 6 TRILLION ROMANIAN SHEK,flip,flip,True,True,4108.94,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:51:49.340596Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Please, the real CFO of Yeezy, dont publish the coin",flip,increase,False,True,3729.6222,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:28:00.806608Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,JUST IN: woofwoof9 is found to be an insider at feeding america. we appreciate your generous 35k donation.,hold,hold,True,True,322.1504,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:04:52.327894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Scam Kessler (Coindesk): Plus, there are other reasons to be suspicious: * The team leaked this to me *by accident* (th",flip,decrease,False,True,163.5283,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T21:31:00.321362Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Just checking in. Anything substantial happen? I see we going upppp,flip,hold,False,True,1824.1137,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:30:58.415543Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"guys i switched my job to nightshift, just to do be online when americans trade",increase,hold,False,True,4713.7951,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:12:06.035887Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,@georgefloydfentanyl you will buy my no shares at 1$,hold,increase,False,True,5724.53,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T18:00:42.677498Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Those cartoon dog kids will paly play the last fight. By tonight no will reach 93-94,flip,hold,False,True,4264.0838,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T01:37:04.230055Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Here¡¯s a tip. if you work, you get money",flip,hold,False,True,273.5393,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:19:44.966167Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,there was a reason why all no whales were largely dormant besides one or two dumbasses with paper hands while the market,decrease,increase,False,True,363.1568,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T00:58:48.338297Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,You might be a rich man tomorrow bud. Wishing you the most luck.,hold,flip,False,True,871.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T03:31:02.454661Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he jus tweeted a swastika version of binance's logo lol. Ye I don't think so,increase,increase,True,True,150.8,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:57:00.107609Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,im gonna buy yes only for the pump then dip back to no,decrease,flip,False,True,39.4703,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T23:57:28.501204Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Do we know if those guys are the one behind the Kanye's coin? Or they paid kanye for a follow back?,hold,decrease,False,True,4116.9017,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T13:08:22.522719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,about to go BOOM and No in disbelief ;),decrease,increase,False,True,3076.7897,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T18:50:08.746208Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,dont bet everything. if he launches coin you can 2-3x some money at the very least. if he doesnt easy 2x here. no is the,decrease,decrease,True,True,322.1504,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T14:57:48.665411Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Zyn please google ""sunk cost fallacy"" quit now before you lose everything",increase,decrease,False,True,3526.0437,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T05:41:52.271515Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,just got off the phone with Ye... he's locking himself in his goon cave for the next month,hold,increase,False,True,80.19,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T21:53:48.371444Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Wtf is wrong with Circus? Concerning amount on realized losses. I hope the boy is doing okay,increase,decrease,False,True,717.5225,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T18:13:35.254849Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"well i mean as long it's not too much money for u, fair enough.",decrease,decrease,True,True,14.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:17:51.216861Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Sam kassler is selling yes on his own article,flip,flip,True,True,3729.6222,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-21T09:41:35.774142Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,that he defenetly did not buy when market pushed lower. because when he buys price stalls in place / goes up. not down.,increase,decrease,False,True,3919.8666,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:17:20.158311Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i hope you will be right, and enjoy your earnings, but im also selfish, so id like to win this ""battle""",increase,hold,False,True,4.8342,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T11:58:28.268538Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,5 days left on this shitshow and somehow you can still get 2.5x your money for betting on it won't happen,hold,increase,False,True,30336.6707,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:33:54.530584Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Oh Shit, he just launched its over",increase,flip,False,True,3526.0437,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T04:17:22.459701Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,damn! Don't you buy No when I buy Yes bro lol,increase,hold,False,True,96.4416,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:20:17.946798Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Does not even make sense to drop when most of his audience is asleep.,flip,hold,False,True,501.8415,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T16:28:42.909711Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Hey car, I lost a lot of money with you on that ""Israel not response until friday""",increase,decrease,False,True,4.5877,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:43:16.558971Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You would dump on 10% don't lie to them,increase,decrease,False,True,4588.8664,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-24T12:45:38.647954Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"So they just announced that they completed the offering,meaning that they did not have time to buy last week?",decrease,decrease,True,True,2007.95,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:34:48.645516Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Why would they care so much about shilling their shitty NFT's if they knew they were going to make millions on Ye coin, ",increase,increase,True,True,2434.786,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T14:47:51.218949Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Did you ever hear the tragedy of BowBow the Wise? It's not a story the Degens would tell you,hold,hold,True,True,406.59,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-23T21:41:08.044246Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"on Monday you will lose your fucking money and u know where will come, TO NO HOLDERS HAHAHAHAHAHAH",hold,increase,False,True,307.02,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T19:49:00.554406Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"finally team no, I had to decide to lose some money, but I know 100k is impossible in november",flip,increase,False,True,46.6048,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T12:02:55.938513Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,did u guys just buy 99.9 for fun or did i miss the tweet?,hold,flip,False,True,34.315,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T17:43:39.292837Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"This is how it's going to play out, word by word. They completed the issuance of the convertible senior notes on Friday,",increase,flip,False,True,9.43,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:36:28.664687Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yes raises by like 3 cents and you've already got keyboard warriors acting like it's over,decrease,hold,False,True,384.9068,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:48:20.804247Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"glad u can see yourself he wont make a coin, good that your first time will be a win, dont fall for the scams/propaganda",increase,increase,True,True,1.7352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:04:54.467903Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I think maybe us talking about him is only egging him on. Maybe we should focus on the real winner here, @thebtcbear who",flip,hold,False,True,8126.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T13:30:59.612354Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,True. I want you as my alies bro. Hit me up on discord @0xpareto.eth,decrease,hold,False,True,79936.06,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T15:45:09.596063Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I asked chatgpt if bitcoin will be over 100k in November and it said NO. You can ask yourselves, im not lying, you can a",hold,hold,True,True,145.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:58:14.722286Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I am never ever reading the replies to kanyes tweets. The winnings of this bet wont cure the cancer I just got.,increase,decrease,False,True,744.6954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:11:10.920567Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"still a chance for yes, saylor just doesnt care to post the chart for peanut buys.",flip,decrease,False,True,211.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T21:11:08.986277Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You know what the biggest problem is? People believe what they think is true, but that's only because that truth feeds t",decrease,hold,False,True,7235.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-18T15:13:04.436001Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,the amount doesnt matter even if its only 1 btc,hold,hold,True,True,200.5625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T12:05:19.438271Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,they bought between Jan 21st and Jan 26th.. Also FASB gets implemented from Q1 2025 although i'm not sure why any of tha,hold,hold,True,True,23639.3842,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T13:03:17.385388Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"last time i checked, bowbow had 250,000 shares or so. someone tell me why on earth he now has over 500,000. is he mental",decrease,hold,False,True,104.7447,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:14:13.959485Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Im literally begging ppl to buy YES so i get filled. that is the opposite of creating fud retard.,decrease,increase,False,True,6876.0182,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T19:36:22.804881Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Hello, Hussein Lalani here. Just wanted to let you know that I'm the new CFO and Chris Mckinney has been fired. We will ",decrease,increase,False,True,1.99,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:33:57.346496Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,YO THIS SHIT BETTER STOP GOING UP OR ELSE I'M GOING TO FREAK THE FUCK OUT,hold,decrease,False,True,131.28,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:10:48.807275Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I will hold my ground and eat the dust if its my destiny. ??, whos with me?",hold,increase,False,True,4264.0838,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T05:03:10.887253Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Id like to thank my Diamond hands. Also bowbow i hope youre okay mate,hold,hold,True,True,17948.6607,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T07:37:02.045654Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"migga = mexican, wigga = white, chigga = chinese, jigga = jewish or japanese. Any others?",flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:06:38.342078Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"hello guys, doing 50 usd to 1000 challenge",increase,hold,False,True,4.8342,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T06:48:49.098016Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I dont think Jesus is going to cut it for you,increase,flip,False,True,4.1,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:43:44.649559Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I am only expecting it to drop to about 96.5 maybe and I will be out by then,decrease,decrease,True,True,290.3559,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:42:24.568958Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,6mins later and we up more lmao nooby get rekt,increase,increase,True,True,3611.57,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:44:36.992006Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,most of the whales are still on no. Let¡¯s get this back to 40c,decrease,increase,False,True,325.4104,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:14:30.616908Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,nigga turned into kanye waiting for him to launch a coin,decrease,hold,False,True,322.1504,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T15:49:15.669139Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Is bullishonsol still around? No activity for 3 days,flip,hold,False,True,951.3537,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:53:49.294261Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,100k looking not so unreachable now??,flip,increase,False,True,2959.2699,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:18:02.450262Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Never felt more confident in ""No""",increase,increase,True,True,850.6436,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:31:10.317936Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh guys, i missed it, i wanted to buy all in YES, crap... can smb tip me i would buy YES all IN",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:31:17.975867Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Why the second I decided to buy ""NO"" it jumps to 37???",flip,flip,True,True,0.3942,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T12:55:00.943365Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,How can u even see it there¡¯s so many dots ????,decrease,hold,False,True,5203.1997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-25T16:40:06.871346Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",This is like selling calls but at stupid high premiums i love it,decrease,increase,False,True,73.51,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T10:59:54.460006Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,Its actually 50-50 If he buys today. Would be 1 week. Based on the last few months he did buy after 7 days pretty often.,increase,decrease,False,True,1476.13,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T07:41:00.130722Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"Why 9and a half? It ends at 11:59Pm, not am. It's got another 20 hours",increase,hold,False,True,65.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T12:31:44.854237Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"Could be an ape, but it is interesting lol.",increase,hold,False,True,811.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T08:33:00.957941Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yea, his doctor personally told me he is going to launch in 1hr",hold,flip,False,True,3042.65,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T15:42:16.560734Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this should be a 100% yes with 8 more days unless btc hard crashes its already hit 99.5k it will easily break the barrie,increase,increase,True,True,170.79,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:30:40.811639Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"niggas out here with 800 shares of yes like ""its so over"" nga it never started",decrease,increase,False,True,12247.56,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:22:26.814923Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Where do you think the $15m grant for spreading LGBTQ awareness among Cambodian youth went to,flip,decrease,False,True,225292.9331,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:46:57.932272Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Even the site wants you to secure your money,hold,decrease,False,True,15.172,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T15:01:39.785496Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Fair price for ""Yes"" Should be at 31c per share",flip,decrease,False,True,11463.7462,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T14:26:08.154931Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Landlord is not getting rent this month,flip,decrease,False,True,1301.8546,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:09:45.756736Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,keep pumping i want to buy No at 50c,flip,flip,True,True,52.6209,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T17:45:09.725163Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"ok, looks like a free +0.7% at this point",hold,decrease,False,True,648.5799,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T05:27:57.019133Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I sold my no In profit at 70c day before yesterday.. taking bet on yes let¡¯s see .,increase,increase,True,True,1777.6983,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T00:04:59.869267Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"kanye was already connected with polygon founder, they schemed this market up together, this market will not resolve to ",hold,increase,False,True,1442.4311,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:37:28.588277Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"women actually love anime, nigga but you never talked to a woman",decrease,hold,False,True,4604.9024,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-22T12:06:04.969381Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Not sure about that, No price still to high tbh",increase,hold,False,True,2648.3315,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T09:02:48.754595Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,wild ride favours yes compared to no. This is pretty much an option with a 100k strike price and the higher the volatili,decrease,flip,False,True,102.9119,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-07T07:33:13.434558Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"but why dose it happen and How, many Bots put hundreds of limit orders?",decrease,hold,False,True,655.12,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:45:35.974859Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"everything will be ok bro, do not panic",hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T19:38:38.703992Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,we'll never forget the name bowbow lmao,increase,hold,False,True,256.4805,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T17:55:00.284872Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,it's not illegal but he wont announce on monday cuzz stock market closed. on tuesday he will announce.,flip,hold,False,True,3518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T06:22:05.256472Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Why do people play slots or let alone gamble at a casino? its a losing proposition and yet you have millions of ppl that,increase,hold,False,True,2904.6644,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:57:03.807528Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,@BowBow put his house on the line. Does he know something that we don't?,increase,decrease,False,True,4588.8664,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-24T11:32:23.534078Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Yes because that's their business plan. Sell bonds with 0% interest and buy Bitcoin with it. They announced 24 hours ago,decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T09:11:51.517747Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,my man risked 6.5k$ for 300$ and now it's upset,increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:36:49.402217Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,stfu and suck his dick quit taking up chat space,flip,hold,False,True,1028.8215,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:33:53.098961Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Fuck you kanye, you destroyed my mental health",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-04T22:44:08.318497Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,No real reason tbh. Only cause Michael posted a graph saying they need to buy more. Means nothing. He does this kind stu,hold,decrease,False,True,871.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T12:14:54.243378Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,What's the relationship between post and the purchase????,flip,decrease,False,True,350.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:28:18.390668Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Zyn what did you do my brother,hold,hold,True,True,5533.7285,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-03T09:32:12.970595Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,itsAlureon gonna lose a lot of money tomorrow xD,increase,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T14:40:58.510466Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Count again and have a nice thanksgiving,decrease,hold,False,True,1208.5762,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T22:21:09.107811Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,yes holders freaking out and thinking they are right cause bowbow hates limit orders is my favourite thing,flip,hold,False,True,105.3488,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:38:44.452856Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I just got the coin early, it's pumping",increase,flip,False,True,3526.0437,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:35:34.839414Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,job? whats a job? also if you tip me ill double your luck im a lucky homeless guy with a severe gambling addiction,increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T06:40:47.330206Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,how many hours to go for the challenge to end?,hold,hold,True,True,92.63,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T17:19:48.358059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I make money on every market because I am smart and you are dumb.,hold,hold,True,True,30336.6707,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T21:23:30.477937Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"It was just a bot making that trade, you think the guy is on 24/7",decrease,hold,False,True,15.9109,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:22:53.786032Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,his next tweet makes or breaks this market. good luck nobros,flip,decrease,False,True,121.7912,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:33:48.209937Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,So what about your thoughts on this panic ?,hold,decrease,False,True,7235.835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T21:20:54.896495Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Now we're betting this fuckin money on him,increase,increase,True,True,1380.3566,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:48:07.954284Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"IT'S ALL THE SAME ACCOUNT, THIS WHOLE THING IS A TRAP!!!",increase,decrease,False,True,2434.786,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:04:59.021403Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"he is a scammer lmao, ignore his ass",increase,increase,True,True,1.7352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T14:11:15.182399Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Just buy YES , look the top holder (Top 1 to 3) , their wallet has been recently created and the only traded market is t",decrease,increase,False,True,87.54,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T00:42:44.418551Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,We should start a BowBow CircleJerk,decrease,hold,False,True,130.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:33:00.627297Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,nothing to worry about at the moment. he needs +3%,decrease,hold,False,True,6533.0605,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:25:56.119298Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,My last 100 shares will be held till the end o7,decrease,hold,False,True,19.688,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:42:58.409837Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"hey YES holders, dont type ""kessler name origin"" on google!",decrease,decrease,True,True,56.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T22:23:31.074648Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,here is his profile so we never forget: https://polymarket.com/profile/0xd60e65c2b296d359bf79ac69b427ceb87e81d385,hold,hold,True,True,266.37,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T00:13:42.083849Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"for those who havent seen this, the doge nft losers are not incharge of dropping for kanye, they tried getting me to pay",hold,decrease,False,True,1442.4311,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T04:08:16.019587Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The only thesis I see for why people are buying 'yes' is that they're planning to hijack kanye's twitter account before ,increase,decrease,False,True,2191.6846,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T21:10:16.692881Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Get out while you can. I'll hold the line while you guys retreat,decrease,increase,False,True,44596.998,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T00:33:23.117654Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,why is bowbow doing this to himself is he expecting it to hit 100k or is he js gon leave b4,increase,decrease,False,True,17.1503,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:59:45.610845Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""Back in 2009, the folks over at OKCupid culled through the site's data and similarly found that race played a big role ",hold,hold,True,True,110.004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:38:15.820429Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol this new guy is a scammer who wanna push the price of yes,increase,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T16:07:55.792156Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Not sure how these no holders are sitting there not jumping shipping and selling into a yes.,increase,hold,False,True,6997.26,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-10T12:57:53.703893Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.,hold,hold,True,True,4.51,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T04:32:28.527174Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"It will be on February 24, the beginning of the war in Ukraine.",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T16:17:46.420048Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,anyone who saying its illegal to post btc purchase without 8k form they dumb lol,decrease,hold,False,True,5069.0843,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T15:17:43.280092Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Thanks, man! Diamond hands to the end.",hold,increase,False,True,8373.1482,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T08:45:34.664452Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,3.5 hours to go .. good luck both yes and no holders (:,decrease,hold,False,True,2127.8579,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T06:46:17.628096Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Ok staying away thx for the advice,decrease,hold,False,True,14178.6337,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T14:26:00.770192Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,MagnumInsideHer was already taken ey,hold,hold,True,True,1016.9351,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T12:21:47.879166Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"theres simply not a way for bitcoin to go above 100k in the next 5 days, huge selloff wall before it :o",decrease,increase,False,True,38.1071,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:06:55.853288Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,what made you want to exit? the article is full of red flags,hold,decrease,False,True,4116.9017,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T21:44:06.890021Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Ye has 0 idea what he is doing confirmed. https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1893416269895876639?s=19,flip,increase,False,True,966.6325,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:11:35.629787Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,i thought TIPS and pipi2000 were the same guy?,increase,hold,False,True,25024.2139,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T11:18:48.584047Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,imagine betting against the insiders when even Saylor said some weeks you don't buy ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,160.65,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:28:05.343258Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",where do u see this information?,decrease,hold,False,True,131.5877,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:08:45.737952Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,imagine explaining this market to yourself 3 years ago,decrease,hold,False,True,322.1504,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:52:57.911383Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,KEEP HOLDING THE BID I HAVE 50 THOUSAND DOLLARS IN COINBASE THAT IS ACCESSIBLE ON THE 25TH OF FEBRUARY READY TO BUY,hold,increase,False,True,1951.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T16:07:41.620939Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"There is a big wall of sellers at 99K, it seems that Bitcoin will not reach 100k next week.",decrease,increase,False,True,298.5634,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T19:41:56.696731Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The best traders on polymarket make money from volatility, they don't care about the actual outcome of the bet",increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T12:59:13.092665Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,financial report: us citizens are dumping btc to buy overpriced turkeys,hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T21:00:22.290451Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"On an uptrend low volume creates low sell pressure for big moves, look at the 5min over the last 8hours for example. Low",increase,increase,True,True,150.4805,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:07:14.149088Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,That's a fake coin FYI: https://dexscreener. com/base/0xCF1abF30368e36641afE93CCE8BDeA7B1Cd2a5e5,increase,hold,False,True,163.53,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-05T17:28:37.871904Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Because it could be someone else buying etc,increase,decrease,False,True,1995.5964,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T02:34:24.609695Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm gonna take your money AND your girl, monkey",decrease,hold,False,True,4604.9024,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T01:22:09.923897Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It's two days away from ending and they still selling a dollar for 90c this is crazy,increase,increase,True,True,890.345,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:53:02.888718Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"he is gonna lose $100,000 like a retard",flip,hold,False,True,2518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T15:01:36.611156Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,They would not bother to buy this,increase,increase,True,True,3526.0437,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:35:00.393594Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If you are an insider, why would you buy polymarket shares for only a 2X ? Instead of Sniping coin for a better return ?",decrease,decrease,True,True,76.55,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T15:35:24.450761Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Yea but told to grok after thar ¡°But on Monday is holiday and stock and SEC dont working, we know Saylor need to filed ",increase,flip,False,True,307.02,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T10:56:14.251864Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I am waiting for americans decision,hold,hold,True,True,71.5485,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T15:19:43.126875Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will kiss 90-88 K today. Thats my bottom,decrease,hold,False,True,1608.5744,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T14:08:15.737811Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How you regards holding yes are doing?,increase,hold,False,True,890.345,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:20:04.773948Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,why this not 100% im scared to roundtrip might start jeeting ngl,decrease,decrease,True,True,124555.8893,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T15:52:21.384592Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I hope we see the same enegy when Kanye drops the coin 2 hours before end date,hold,flip,False,True,3683.2722,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:08:45.318913Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yeah yeah, keep watching for the sidelines",flip,hold,False,True,264.2328,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T05:58:33.979642Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,The common logic says he will buy btc worth quarter billion dollars,decrease,increase,False,True,2429.43,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T11:01:17.512103Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can we get badges that display our religion next to our screen names? I want to see how many J3WS are holding YES,decrease,hold,False,True,716.6325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:59:05.672703Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,poor bowbow gonna lose over half a million dollars for nothing,increase,decrease,False,True,497.3506,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T21:23:38.442507Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i think this is gonna be what the kids call a ""top kek"" moment",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:58:52.823364Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Contest the results if the coin drops at 12:00:001,flip,hold,False,True,689.5783,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:06:30.612272Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Well he is either talking bout crypto since yesterday cause he really want to launch or he just trolling everyone, like ",hold,decrease,False,True,5320.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:07:16.163068Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Breaking news: Man discovers volatility trading. More at 9, back to Ye at the Crazy studio",flip,hold,False,True,966.6325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T19:12:11.810399Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You lost yourself a lot of money.*,decrease,decrease,True,True,1399.8848,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:32:23.663938Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,GUYS SPV = SPECIAL PURPOSE VENTURE WE ARE COOKED WE ARE COOKED,flip,flip,True,True,166.7112,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T13:10:33.178974Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You can Go ahead and close the Market already for good. It only gets worse for Yes buyers.,decrease,increase,False,True,1608.563,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T21:33:22.323458Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I think M Saylor will ve a big problem with someone if he tries to press the buy bitcoin button,increase,decrease,False,True,1380.3566,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T16:26:58.260183Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,@Car is the only real chad here,increase,hold,False,True,307.02,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T19:58:50.736314Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Holy shit every time i hit refresh, it goes up",flip,increase,False,True,698.2377,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:05:11.452534Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,car sells for a profit. i wait until my shares dump to 0. we are not the same.,flip,decrease,False,True,166.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:36:10.988717Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"all the no buyers are buying the other half of yes contracts. i think there are insiders still buying, but with maker or",flip,decrease,False,True,166.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T11:29:30.768333Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"You Right with this, it can all Happens. I Hope we have luck with it.",increase,hold,False,True,168.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T18:08:34.058439Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,There are 5 different polymarket bets related to Kanye's coin so polymarket must know he is doing a coin or they would n,increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:31:14.765766Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Whoever still buys yes deserves to lose it all,hold,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T20:17:12.521073Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,CANT BELIEVE I LOST MY LIFE SAVINGS CUZ OF A FUCKING BLACK BABBOON,hold,decrease,False,True,38849.9344,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T14:30:46.158918Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Is that so? Then why are you reducing your yes position :),increase,decrease,False,True,102.7679,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:01:39.344333Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,when was last time that he did not bought near ATH ? NEVER...,flip,increase,False,True,2029.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T13:06:53.069957Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Uzbekistan is already pumping it to 98.5,flip,increase,False,True,194.5643,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T02:02:34.734831Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,no nigga im all in.... I never sold,decrease,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:24:17.640095Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,@aenews2 if u give me a couple of bucks i can give u some info for profitable trade,hold,hold,True,True,160.73,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T19:08:36.412513Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,No orange coins found under saylors bed this time! No is a lock ??,hold,increase,False,True,3.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T11:14:55.426442Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,yea you will get the full amount if the market resolves to NO,increase,increase,True,True,2.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:20:15.598677Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"their ruble is in shambles, figures they turn to crypto",flip,hold,False,True,9516.9924,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:02:53.397412Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,it's so crazy people believe someone paid millions for ye's account and are just holding on dragging time and not gettin,hold,hold,True,True,1008.8954,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T11:23:23.085078Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,His trades makes no sense to me.,increase,hold,False,True,463.0124,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:04:55.866778Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,you guys are all gay. YES buyers are supposed to be confident but no one is filling my big order for NO....,decrease,decrease,True,True,6876.0182,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:30:15.322422Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"even if coin desk was true, which it isn't, it said ye was PLANNING not LAUNCHING a token. there are only 7 days to reso",decrease,increase,False,True,346.4104,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T13:47:41.882207Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Bro you telling me he¡¯s too dumb to know that he can¡¯t make money here ?,hold,decrease,False,True,2029.1785,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T15:31:25.594075Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"I bet @Degen12 he has balls to buy at 99.9, since he knows that it would be a WIN.",flip,increase,False,True,499.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T12:19:51.026195Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You propably wont see that again.,decrease,increase,False,True,1608.563,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-10T12:31:24.669704Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,where is the proof that Bitcoin was bought?,hold,hold,True,True,46.36,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:00:00.182462Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm sincerely asking again: is Chris McKinney the real CFO of Yeezy or is it Hussein?,flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:43:18.066341Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"he has neither acknowledged any of this, probably doesnt even know about it",increase,increase,True,True,25.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T21:32:42.249712Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,guys dw he will drop tonight at 11:58,hold,flip,False,True,61.7794,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T10:45:15.865536Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Bro, has anyone ever told you that you're crazy?)",increase,decrease,False,True,36.65,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T17:56:15.720247Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,a k dot profile picture on a betting platform is oxymoronic ngl,increase,hold,False,True,19.4603,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:46:33.542679Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"haha you're crazy man, i like you, but you're crazy",flip,hold,False,True,6665.4972,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:04:54.068033Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,He sold for 13cents but now not selling for 15 cents,decrease,decrease,True,True,1801.4536,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T13:19:49.277068Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,YES holders really need a Saylor completion post right about now. It seems like the argument is the funds won't clear in,increase,decrease,False,True,2577.1509,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:50:00.613327Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,no lol that coin is obviously not kanye's,flip,flip,True,True,160339.3255,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:15:02.033709Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You should, he's very reliable & stable",flip,flip,True,True,14348.6337,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:33:05.960565Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i was supposed to go outside and be a productive person today but i have instead decided to stare at the twitter page of,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T10:10:03.364989Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"Honestly i dont trust that london insider who know maybe is true but i dont care, last time he bought very big amount pr",decrease,decrease,True,True,47.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T15:34:49.817276Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Usually it's darkest when you're dead and 6 feet under,decrease,hold,False,True,204.7684,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:26:25.441351Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,WHY WOULD KANYE EMAIL COINDESK AND TELL THEM ALL HIS SECRET PLANS LOL Y'ALL ARE RETARDED,increase,increase,True,True,3944.7672,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-23T15:38:03.106077Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"never happend, strk atm this week funded btc buys.",hold,decrease,False,True,6453.0733,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T12:25:37.564085Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BTC needs to reach 94,000 for that to happen",flip,hold,False,True,11463.7462,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-27T18:57:06.631833Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Yeah you're right, maybe this market is more ""accurate"" because more volume ??",hold,hold,True,True,268.85,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-21T13:17:19.647324Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"It'll hit 100K, just not today so lets play some games :)",increase,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:18:45.581059Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,we were shaken but we won! my thoughts to the panic sellers,decrease,increase,False,True,7205.6135,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:52:16.106004Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I know I wish I had that freedom ??,decrease,hold,False,True,112.01,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T11:03:08.579565Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"No ""wen"" exist bro , its about ""IF"" he announce . 15 hours left and ""IF"" no announce y'all loose unfortunately",increase,decrease,False,True,9.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-21T12:02:29.443642Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Maybe his love for bitcoin will find a way,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:53:51.854543Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,im sorry but at least i HAVE money unlike you,increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:24:29.577357Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,facts if they dont know about the last spike in crypto they will learn,flip,increase,False,True,424.4728,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-19T18:25:36.538749Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,But you dont understand they are insiders and are locking their money here to get 3x instead of 30x on the coin launch,increase,flip,False,True,4670.7389,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T13:51:51.118584Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,We only have to hope Asian market dosnt pump. US market is chilling today ;),increase,decrease,False,True,9540.426,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:49:41.874851Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@MiyamotoMusashi is a -$2,626.76 weeabo.",hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:53:47.256837Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"he got spooked in the 500k market too, he thinks Saylor is done buying with ATM",flip,decrease,False,True,6513.3672,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T11:20:25.106258Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Because he is high as a fucking kite when he tweets bro. Do you not read what he himself writes? Can't tell Ye nothin,decrease,increase,False,True,716.6325,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T06:35:53.015833Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He literally said he will launch it next week,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:49:38.896772Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,when are u gonna understand i am not that nigga?,flip,decrease,False,True,2518.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:44:50.811942Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Should i sell now? i want to secure my profits,decrease,decrease,True,True,408.1881,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:06:52.500868Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,6pm. no coin? yesbros rekt??? nobody surprised?????? i love this market,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T22:04:27.278549Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Please Bitcoin hit 100K so i can win some money and stay on the website ??,increase,decrease,False,True,64.55,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T05:40:59.602733Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine him shooting loads onto a paper with a swastika on it?,flip,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T20:09:14.340375Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The most important thing is what they are selling,hold,hold,True,True,7235.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-23T12:26:30.039554Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Do i lost my money then is it confirm :/,hold,decrease,False,True,20.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T09:36:43.368928Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye is a triple A artist, not some lowlife like adam22 or the hawktuah girl",increase,increase,True,True,1577.4885,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:27:01.977727Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woke up at 20cents and had a minor heart attack, glad I didn't panic sold in sleep drowsiness",decrease,decrease,True,True,744.1744,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T06:23:07.891859Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""Well, you couldn't because it was a terrible bet, and went against all statistical evidence you seem to love so much. I",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T06:26:58.758671Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,can you link the tweet? I need something to give me the confidence to hold this position I'm crashing out,hold,decrease,False,True,4826.12,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:01:53.308651Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,THANK YOU YES HOLDERS FOR YOUR DONATIONS,decrease,decrease,True,True,7235.835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:15:50.510042Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Basically, don't take anything he's saying right now seriously. Including the coin launch.",increase,increase,True,True,4.8,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T09:40:52.286122Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Lol TOP 1 holder of YES MastaWu 1 hour ago created wallet,increase,hold,False,True,31.14,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-12T11:23:43.023624Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,their last post also sounded like that https://londoninsider.co.uk/microstrategy-will-reveal-latest-bitcoin-purchase-on-,increase,increase,True,True,578.9977,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T22:41:51.042225Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BTC didn¡¯t hit $20k or $70k on the last runs. It won¡¯t hit $100k until the next one,decrease,increase,False,True,329.4849,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:31:49.582778Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"good shit, wishing you a wealthy bear market",hold,increase,False,True,7427.9986,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T14:35:24.123082Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",I think 95k is possible but 105k probably at the end of the year,decrease,decrease,True,True,1181.6032,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T06:03:14.605429Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"holy fk kanye is tweeting now, coin will drop anytime soon",hold,decrease,False,True,3042.65,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T17:42:02.202215Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I don't get it, hes buying and selling at same price, benefit?",hold,hold,True,True,52.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T23:16:03.178863Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Only line im holding is gonna be at the bankruptcy office... were doomed,decrease,decrease,True,True,1058.33,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:10:46.283067Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Thanx bro but what¡¯s up with the post is it all legit post on x,decrease,hold,False,True,950.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:57:42.453912Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I think I suffer a lot for such a low return, I would have preferred to be a yes holder",decrease,flip,False,True,7205.6135,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T19:00:55.041814Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,see yall in 7 days when we collecting the cash,increase,increase,True,True,1092.2056,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:18:51.220688Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"exactly duh, surely hmu with like $1 so i can get a 5x on $1 this easy as fuck",increase,increase,True,True,1.73,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T15:33:12.957585Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,I am a little worried that he bought 2 days agoas it lines up with his Bitcoin moonshot post on X. But chance is low and,flip,decrease,False,True,351.3334,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T17:46:30.487564Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I am waiting for the fking pump,increase,hold,False,True,79.06,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:17:45.793027Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bro fr ill take $1 tip to bet on No, i fr only got $4 rn and its all on NO baby",increase,increase,True,True,1.7352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T19:06:04.296422Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Like if you like free money :P,decrease,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:00:27.600224Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This one is quite special but there are retarded markets here like every week or two.,decrease,hold,False,True,22.0109,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:05:45.829363Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Just wanted to thank all, It's latenight/morning in Aus so I need to cash out majority of my yess positions and sleep, w",flip,decrease,False,True,167.8419,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:45:20.386599Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Real insiders would def know if this token is launching this month or not, they would have sold 100% after the pump",flip,increase,False,True,3729.6222,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T07:04:42.305882Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"1.5 billion dollars don't get cleared on Saturdays my friend, specially calm ones like this one",hold,increase,False,True,27503.848,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:25:34.874486Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"why the fuck does a bybit hack change kanye's timeline on dropping a coin, enlighten me crypto bros",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T10:45:47.953697Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,As we get closer to the date.. ??,hold,decrease,False,True,2499.5772,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T00:56:53.080469Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"What m8, hahaha. My whole thing is, when looking at the risk to reward ratio on this bet, it's very low risk, very high ",hold,increase,False,True,871.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:36:57.452029Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How many people use indicators for trading? Do they really work to help guide trading?,flip,hold,False,True,86.9789,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T21:00:01.056487Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"even if Saylor is done with the ATM, he can still do a convertible note this week. Probably needs to announce it soon th",flip,increase,False,True,6349.6872,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T18:23:10.617999Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Kind of feel for the Yes holders tbh... sad!,increase,decrease,False,True,227.19,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:24:37.980287Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"sunday dot post will be interesting times, keep plenty of cash on hand",flip,decrease,False,True,7129.9054,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:50:07.194134Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Iam back guys what utter madness did I miss,decrease,hold,False,True,16.5546,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:25:59.812525Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You need therapy. I know you get furious whenever you see an interracial couple in public LOL,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T19:42:10.611347Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The ¡°CFO contacts crypto news reporter¡± wasn¡¯t odd enough,flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:41:08.403756Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"He was up 500k on this bet, now he is breakeven ??",decrease,decrease,True,True,4005.6902,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T07:47:06.112295Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"Exactly, the funds from the recent capital raise aren't available until the 25th. Considering they made a very small pur",hold,increase,False,True,2135.79,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T03:01:52.032299Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think anyone with $500k to throw on a bet knows people for sure.. a low probability as well,flip,decrease,False,True,196.0393,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T00:24:03.202665Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"asdf234123SDF bought 65,003 Yes at 38.1 (24,771) for sure just a degen no insider info there",decrease,decrease,True,True,358.86,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T08:44:40.215948Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It would be funny if it's a complete reversal.,decrease,flip,False,True,86.4096,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T21:07:43.528837Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"bitcoin is dumping, saylor is readying the purse to buy the dip!",decrease,flip,False,True,4081.039,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:02:22.082796Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm an insider. Kanye's team is exploring launching friday at noon. Load up on 'yes' now,flip,flip,True,True,1824.1137,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T00:34:44.926863Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",what kinda drugs r u on i need sum of that shit fr,decrease,hold,False,True,88.63,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:40:11.581431Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It looks like this is a mere concept at this point,flip,increase,False,True,3729.6222,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T18:11:31.850083Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Not selling even 1 Yes Share of mine, I am okay to lose this, if BTC doesn¡¯t hit 100k in November, would like to buy mo",hold,increase,False,True,447697.4223,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:55:47.016909Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,where is circus when we need him,decrease,hold,False,True,923.27,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T13:07:04.709083Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,if you tip me ill double your luck im a lucky homeless guy with a severe gambling addiction who needs to feed his kids,increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:38:25.648608Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,it¡¯s over nobros he¡¯ll do it on monday,decrease,flip,False,True,923.27,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T15:05:53.706662Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,What if all the no holders just all flipped yes on saturday. That would be a silly little prank,hold,flip,False,True,3.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T14:10:35.400864Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Did you really turn 3k into 22k?,increase,increase,True,True,202.1792,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T07:09:20.348575Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,that's your limit order ? of 13k on 35c,decrease,hold,False,True,5123.5971,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T19:24:42.848927Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"97k floor formed, all the best on the final day..this will be fun",hold,increase,False,True,3.84,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:27:29.398892Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Every second that passes is in No holders favour,decrease,increase,False,True,408.6401,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T18:11:06.457131Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i know... 52w low/high, heads shoulders have some value but elliott waves not so much.",decrease,hold,False,True,14.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T21:44:11.022129Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""you telling me if you were a hermaphrodite you wouldn¡¯t stick your d*ck in your own pus*y"" - ye",flip,hold,False,True,47577.2687,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:08:12.735005Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,bro needed help I'm a new trader here,hold,hold,True,True,15.504,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T17:52:48.720583Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Yes Holdera retarded. Microstrategy never announces a buy on a public holiday when stock market is closed (not even with,flip,increase,False,True,3518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T10:24:49.096219Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Idc , its gambling law get juicy odds , saylor can break his armn and not tweet anything or for any other reason else . ",increase,decrease,False,True,9.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T17:41:25.887798Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Prophet bow bow is a wannabe. The real messiah is in top holders,increase,hold,False,True,258.9805,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T15:50:22.219378Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Fat lady is humming a few notes,hold,decrease,False,True,643.4576,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T07:02:55.939565Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Why can¡¯t you see my message on holder ??,increase,hold,False,True,11.208,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:58:49.696104Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Putting Elon pfp is like putting broke condom,increase,decrease,False,True,15.3772,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:44:59.356867Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BTC is a money printing machine, just farming retail all day long",flip,increase,False,True,2271.7461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:49:56.564901Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,your name is jj shut the fuck up,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T07:13:51.857383Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You gonna hack his account on friday or smth?,decrease,hold,False,True,1846.3537,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T15:48:36.106505Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"can some YES dummies, oh im sorry, insiders, fill my 58c order?",increase,increase,True,True,1034.999,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:57:23.145053Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,its a new day in america ??????,decrease,hold,False,True,2510.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T12:50:18.152747Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Saylormoon bought a lot this week,flip,increase,False,True,739.2423,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:11:16.132128Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If it doesn¡¯t drop today then article is fake. I¡¯ll check back tomorrow cya weirdos.,decrease,decrease,True,True,15745.6369,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:10:14.553667Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"He always buys on Mondays, easy money, please tip me so that I could buy more",increase,increase,True,True,1.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T12:08:50.863707Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Where can i buy the drunken 3 year old's coin? Sounds dope,decrease,hold,False,True,716.6325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-20T08:01:04.743317Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",What do you guys think about this tweet? https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1881242431108403605,hold,hold,True,True,1681.722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T05:03:32.390773Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"ATH for November will be $99,999.99 and i will win this bet",increase,increase,True,True,120.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T20:05:25.483392Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I'd take the yes on over 120K 2025,hold,flip,False,True,1586.4206,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T11:48:11.787242Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,13 min and we will know who is the real insider,decrease,hold,False,True,143.8135,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-18T13:46:32.512471Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Can't agree more. It's actually only two weeks until December, and I don't think there is enough time for the market to ",hold,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:51:29.342633Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,aenews just made a million dollars from this site wtf,decrease,hold,False,True,322.1504,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:25:33.229813Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Market is about to close. You would need a phenomenal friday to win this one. No shot.,decrease,increase,False,True,70.7979,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T01:24:10.465125Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Guys can someone help me? So if we keep holding until tomorrow and it closes in ""NO"" what's next? I'm new. What will hap",decrease,hold,False,True,2040.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T10:58:03.775971Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"They are not buying btc , because of russia war going on today",increase,hold,False,True,208.6939,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T12:23:03.823736Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"The last one was pre 6220BTC purchase. The latest one is post that buy. Still no evidence hes bought yet, but tracker ch",increase,hold,False,True,811.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T13:06:32.842578Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,So that was that. Back in the red,increase,decrease,False,True,1208.5762,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:26:17.716035Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","it need to stay like this for 1 minute, if i understand it well ( I don't know)",decrease,decrease,True,True,131.5877,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:06:10.545188Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"love you mate, you did the right thing, too much risk is not good for anyone",flip,decrease,False,True,1426.87,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T05:36:23.740472Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Someone dispute it so these wiggas don't get their money right away,hold,decrease,False,True,110.004,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T10:43:52.081061Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Yes kinda undervalued rn given whats happening on the charts lol,flip,increase,False,True,670.9572,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T08:09:07.503389Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,you are in a great position right now if you sell right b4 the yeezy store opens tomorrow and put everything on no,hold,increase,False,True,1951.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T12:06:22.618533Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BTC will not go to 100k unless the Feds drop interest rates by 25 basis points,decrease,hold,False,True,32679.5247,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T21:18:38.880785Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I bought some lmao. Super illiquid market... I am not insider fwiw.,increase,decrease,False,True,4100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:56:50.916381Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,No holders are doing this all wrong. You're meant to buy LOW and sell HIGH. Not the other way around.,hold,decrease,False,True,969.0409,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T16:42:53.030005Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,why u back in i thought u sold,increase,decrease,False,True,7722.9881,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T07:00:20.088441Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"How is this 2%, and who tf are people buying yes shares with 20hours left while market is on saturday and going down and",hold,increase,False,True,27503.848,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T17:53:06.007367Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Yes Holders are retarded. Microstrategy never announces a buy on a public holiday when stock market is closed (not even ,flip,increase,False,True,3518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:46:07.507225Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye would for sure contact coindesk before launch¡­use your brain fellas,increase,hold,False,True,2643.84,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:44:12.799697Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,hanging from a tree is so calming ??,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:36:44.297176Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,He cashed out some before the win,flip,decrease,False,True,2959.2699,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T22:01:45.937929Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,guys i changed my mind can u be kind and let me out,decrease,flip,False,True,208204.1122,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T21:14:05.395556Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Ok it's past eleven here I have to go to bed. Have fun fellow holders. Have pleasant day or evening.,decrease,hold,False,True,86.4056,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T22:06:54.627378Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bowbow changed name to buysell,hold,hold,True,True,19.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:46:19.503971Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,nah bro i wanted to buy but now i realised im wrong.,flip,flip,True,True,2518.6,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cfc797472544978655a5cf4ebccd7f15260ad7a4 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,481 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +522080,2025-02-22T01:49:56.564901Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,your name is jj shut the fuck up,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T07:25:15.805391Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"what a trend, i did not believe it, but100k come within few hours",increase,increase,True,True,2000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:19:49.360629Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Search it up. I'm not that much of an expert on crypto,decrease,decrease,True,True,502.4478,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:53:00.493959Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,YOU DIDN'T SEE THE EARLIER CONVERSATION SCROLL DOWN,hold,hold,True,True,4526.4535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-31T17:13:42.823481Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,advice to both yall: no crying in casino,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T04:13:31.482378Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Nah im not, but you the figures on bull/sell are different when you actually go to perform action. Test it",hold,decrease,False,True,2201.2848,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T20:10:38.396717Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Feel sad for you man¡­ hang on! Better times will come ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,8430.1899,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:25:14.024049Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Keep bugging him about the coin on X,hold,hold,True,True,15745.6369,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T20:00:00.211982Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,No he dont buy a cheick all wallets,hold,hold,True,True,193.21,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:48:06.992964Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Check the information for yourself,flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T11:58:55.223607Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Nah .. it was all just a joke .. good luck (:,hold,decrease,False,True,2029.1785,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:25:24.245278Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,YOU WILL FINALLY LEARN THAT COINDESK IS NOT A SERIOUS NEWS SOURCE. THEY REPORT EVERYTHING JUST AS IT IS WITH ABSOLUTELY ,flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T07:39:40.364164Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i'm not sure if that Zyn wigga is an insider or outsider,flip,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:11:09.151775Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I don't know what is happening I need guwop's guidance,flip,decrease,False,True,6748.5574,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:48:00.463858Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",decrease,increase,False,True,6876.0182,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:51:29.342633Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,aenews just made a million dollars from this site wtf,decrease,hold,False,True,322.1504,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-07T09:50:35.496476Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,"Yes it was on June 2, look at strategy balance sheet, it clearly states last buy was on 2 June, so yeah if he didn¡¯t po",hold,hold,True,True,1.56,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:46:11.637029Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,All we can do now is pray fellow No holders. Pray that the people buying Bitcoing for 97.000 USD will activate their las,flip,increase,False,True,2058.6286,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T19:53:14.847734Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Why would he scam you, you dumbo",hold,hold,True,True,3.84,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:28:01.658931Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,if ur trying to buy in more it matters,decrease,decrease,True,True,283.9539,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T15:27:52.684685Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It will just flatline rest of Nov,increase,hold,False,True,12.45,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:14:20.136821Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,WE DID IT JOE.... MERELY 45 MINUTES LATER,flip,flip,True,True,834.0537,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:47:30.085557Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys I sold all my YES and bought NO because I saw this: Specifically, MicroStrategy will announce details of its latest",flip,increase,False,True,2518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:49:38.896772Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,when are u gonna understand i am not that nigga?,flip,decrease,False,True,2518.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T23:54:45.552318Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,bullishonsol is one of those dog nft clowns,increase,hold,False,True,3523.2708,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T12:53:32.729877Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,If most of the comments aren¡¯t making sense to you check January 20th,hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,729.9736,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:28:00.806608Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,JUST IN: woofwoof9 is found to be an insider at feeding america. we appreciate your generous 35k donation.,decrease,hold,False,True,322.1504,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:47:27.333443Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,looks like a birds eye view of the TIP of a penis.,flip,hold,False,True,6665.4972,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T18:12:46.787694Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,somebody just gave me 800$ for free when sold me his bet for 4k,decrease,decrease,True,True,4003.0924,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T19:00:55.041814Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,see yall in 7 days when we collecting the cash,decrease,increase,False,True,1092.2056,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:56:00.405271Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,He lost a bit on 29th Nov bets.. just sayin,flip,decrease,False,True,1066.08,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T01:17:06.002928Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Please Lord forgive me for my greed, forgive me for mistaking a piece for the puzzle. Please let Kanye tweet the coin la",hold,decrease,False,True,7997.7374,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:35:48.872185Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,fuck harvard. They're a bunch of legacy/nepotism admissions,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:17:39.827177Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Do you think hes doing the launch or what lol its not him. Its the team and I doubt they will launch when there is 0 vol,hold,decrease,False,True,15585.73,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T16:44:12.467194Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Great idea, me too will buy yes very soon",flip,flip,True,True,4264.0838,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T21:10:20.045282Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,GL getting to break even brother,increase,decrease,False,True,150.4805,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T20:50:24.284472Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,@bullishonsol You will buy my shares at 1$ lil ngga,hold,hold,True,True,5724.53,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T12:20:39.475028Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes thats a right brother i undestand that, but dots is enought to ppl leave market with profit, we all know tomorrow he",increase,hold,False,True,388.0197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T18:48:32.903947Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i'm saying that he is used to spread missinformation. also he claims he is Jesus or the next Michael Jackson? what the..,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T09:37:30.354899Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If only. That would really save my hide,decrease,decrease,True,True,86.4096,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T18:26:46.860131Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Guys ,its not happening at least today. We can go back to our daily lifes",hold,increase,False,True,4264.0838,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:57:27.257594Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This guy is creating generational wealth right there,flip,increase,False,True,0.3942,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:33:53.098961Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Fuck you kanye, you destroyed my mental health",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T09:37:25.899456Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He will launch something, but not a coin. Probably new drop and trolled crypto bros with his tweets for more attention",hold,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T14:58:41.077131Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I think the only one true insider is guwop. He wants NO to be dumped, so he could by more YES from another his fake acco",increase,decrease,False,True,1034.999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:20:17.946798Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Does not even make sense to drop when most of his audience is asleep.,flip,hold,False,True,501.8415,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T17:50:45.313254Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"honestly, i don't think it will hit 100k until Decemeber at the minimum. It will only really go up sooner if something b",decrease,hold,False,True,104.7447,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:31:17.975867Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Why the second I decided to buy ""NO"" it jumps to 37???",flip,flip,True,True,0.3942,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:02:58.129624Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The meatball devil is panic selling,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2722,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:44:44.969091Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@Guwop, what's your main account? I saw you sold all of your shares",hold,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:39:45.742503Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think u made the right play tbh,decrease,hold,False,True,38.9801,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T21:10:20.045282Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,GL getting to break even brother,increase,decrease,False,True,150.4805,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T16:11:41.286358Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"If Saylor could announce the purchase any day why did he even wait all this time for monday, he needs the market open th",hold,increase,False,True,679.7017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T22:07:33.004369Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,But nggas prayed on our downfall,hold,hold,True,True,5724.53,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T14:40:21.962805Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,anyone who thought they knew how Kanye was going to act needs to rethink,decrease,decrease,True,True,10016.6186,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:33:41.383533Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Data gathering websites say it's Chris McKinney, which one is it?",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:47:56.331403Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,all it takes is like 2 whales and 3 firms is all im saying...,flip,increase,False,True,1.05,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T00:18:33.908981Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,IN BOWBOW WE TRUST #PumpBitcoin ??,decrease,increase,False,True,123.7305,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:17:51.216861Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Sam kassler is selling yes on his own article,flip,flip,True,True,3729.6222,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T11:18:48.584047Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,imagine betting against the insiders when even Saylor said some weeks you don't buy ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,160.65,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T04:41:17.521422Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Yes! I can feel free money is coming to me,hold,increase,False,True,404.66,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:00:00.182462Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm sincerely asking again: is Chris McKinney the real CFO of Yeezy or is it Hussein?,flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T11:55:40.541729Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Bro It¡¯s not deffinitly but if you¡¯re no sure you¡¯re on time to leave and keep save, I¡¯m Betting because It¡¯s just ",hold,decrease,False,True,41.06,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:31:41.263449Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,sell now and buy yourself a new rolex,increase,decrease,False,True,160.73,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T05:11:39.041527Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i already get 0 bitches so this changes nothing for me,decrease,hold,False,True,112.5356,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T18:48:58.962831Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,The buy is coming I think the question with the 500k is if they will have enough capital for that many bitcoins,increase,flip,False,True,402.31,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T13:33:04.498999Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"everyone's getting paid tomorrow, salary payments going into the pump machine",decrease,increase,False,True,219.4507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T05:40:59.602733Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine him shooting loads onto a paper with a swastika on it?,flip,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:40:49.882526Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,as soon as it goes above 31 except to see a sell wall of 2mil shares and then another buy wall for No ??,flip,decrease,False,True,52.6209,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T03:43:38.492938Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,As long as there is cash in my pocket I will never stop buying NO,flip,increase,False,True,27277.8575,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:29:32.702301Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bbave is an insider trader too, he's going to flip to yes on friday",increase,flip,False,True,2434.786,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:33:52.243414Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Your $8 will shake the markets up,increase,hold,False,True,2581.22,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T16:42:53.030005Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,why u back in i thought u sold,decrease,decrease,True,True,7722.9881,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T19:41:56.696731Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The best traders on polymarket make money from volatility, they don't care about the actual outcome of the bet",increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:26:44.811039Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Source: Me. Don¡¯t be an idiot and sell your NO shares bc if market manipulation.,increase,increase,True,True,220.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T08:26:58.070069Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,guys i found kanyes meteora pool please keep bidding yes!!!!,hold,flip,False,True,1951.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T11:05:45.802047Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,So i just lose money although i just bought ?,increase,decrease,False,True,618.46,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:55:50.563761Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"strong buy walls on no, NO COIN IS OUT",decrease,increase,False,True,98.1412,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:53:21.265344Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,IVE INTERCEDED WITH GOD TO PUSH AGAINIST THE CRYPTO THOUGHT IN YE'S HEAD,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T07:13:51.857383Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You gonna hack his account on friday or smth?,flip,hold,False,True,1846.3537,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-11T18:39:12.299972Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,wouldnt londoninsider post again incase they buy?,flip,hold,False,True,325.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-20T01:50:51.986875Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"The buy is def coming, I just don¡¯t think he will pull it off in 3 weekdays",increase,decrease,False,True,168.61,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T21:07:05.931747Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Why u guys so interested in bowbow bets ? He do whatever he wants with his money,so stop all this bullshit.",flip,hold,False,True,252.6024,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-19T17:35:22.879394Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,it¡¯s because of insider buying on the yes side,decrease,decrease,True,True,394.3024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:20:13.624881Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ngl the weekly bitcoin price ones have been fun too recently,decrease,hold,False,True,759.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T16:23:19.397602Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,No exit liquidity for podgies. He is stuck buying.,decrease,increase,False,True,1606.7186,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T15:21:14.564528Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Heres a tip, get more money and use another card",increase,increase,True,True,252.0047,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T06:26:32.992729Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Tip me 10 to get me on your side,hold,hold,True,True,4264.0838,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T21:33:43.147442Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,The journey and the experiences we gain along the way are far more important than the final outcome,hold,hold,True,True,1831.2199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T12:55:00.943365Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,How can u even see it there¡¯s so many dots ????,decrease,hold,False,True,5203.1997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:09:01.554502Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,haha man I laugh a lot with your comments,hold,hold,True,True,71.5485,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T20:59:39.249914Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"IF YOU'RE A SAM KESSLER FAN, FUCK YOU TOO",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T03:18:45.180065Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I kinda wish now that all of a sudden last minute it goes to 100k, just because of BowBow",hold,decrease,False,True,266.37,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:13:13.167441Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,AENEWS STOP YOU CAN'T DO THIS TO US. I THOUGHT WE WERE FRIENDS,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:39:25.128578Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If it's a rumor, at least publish ALL the information, why are you withholding information that is crucial to evaluate t",flip,decrease,False,True,3729.6222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:21:44.304704Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This reminds me of israel syria invasion chat when UMA decisions were live,increase,hold,False,True,560.5604,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:28:18.724405Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Well many of them can jump now with great bags of profits, so still the plan worked flawlessly. My hat goes of to the hu",increase,hold,False,True,6086.1059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T09:35:43.682385Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,My best working theory is that Ye is out here in the trenches with us. Any tweet he makes could generate him 100s of tho,hold,increase,False,True,30336.6707,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T10:00:28.219923Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It's true. I ran the odds and there's literally no way we can win any more.,hold,decrease,False,True,30336.6707,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T22:46:33.988587Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"jeez, the tesla guy is just retarted but the others are purely evil",flip,hold,False,True,740.0212,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T06:50:53.200794Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Where is the 8K filing? Are you yes holders scared yet?,increase,increase,True,True,12.7788,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-17T02:32:59.975465Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,Unfortunately it¡¯s the other way around.,hold,flip,False,True,401.99,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T12:05:59.143944Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"Allyaws the same bru, this market crazy manipulated",hold,decrease,False,True,7.93,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T06:05:08.430767Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Reading the Comments section is better than watch a comedy,increase,hold,False,True,2891.1667,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:44:26.566398Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,fuck I can't handle this no more,increase,decrease,False,True,798.2032,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:55:46.053264Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Indeed , That's clearly a insider",increase,increase,True,True,111.6205,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:05:37.156783Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm mixed race (black/white/native american) and I have a white girlfriend. Most of my sexual partners in my past are wh,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-07T15:01:07.591817Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,"Actually bet is something else, it¡¯s a window of buying again till 9 June, and MSTR already purchased 705 btc on 2 June",hold,increase,False,True,1.56,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:58:14.722286Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I am never ever reading the replies to kanyes tweets. The winnings of this bet wont cure the cancer I just got.,increase,decrease,False,True,744.6954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:19:09.128499Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,but 4% to reach 100k is far different from 4% to reach 96k,increase,hold,False,True,135.61,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T20:09:34.000567Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This retard can make more off of a Tweet than he can make working for coindesk for 10 years straight. The economics don',hold,increase,False,True,30336.6707,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T15:40:31.602014Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bro you get 1,2 kkkkk but have fun with it",hold,hold,True,True,47.23,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:04:54.467903Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I think maybe us talking about him is only egging him on. Maybe we should focus on the real winner here, @thebtcbear who",flip,hold,False,True,8126.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T22:21:06.553054Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,'yes' holders and traders just keep getting duped https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1894149826805149884,flip,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:33:24.501779Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,What is your favorite Kanye's song?,flip,hold,False,True,1234.8645,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:31:27.463193Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ngl this is the funniest comment section I've seen on this site,increase,hold,False,True,649.12,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-03T19:59:17.570378Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"https://x.com/saylor/status/1940841509575946649 ""Im going to buy top forever!""",hold,increase,False,True,235.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:56:59.162282Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Never a shortage of retarded drama here,flip,hold,False,True,14178.6337,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T12:47:34.548683Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"not even close to truth, announcement just needs to be on widely accepted public outlet such as SEC (closed monday) or B",decrease,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T05:41:34.367981Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,OMG WE JUST BROKE THE 85C WALL. THE NEXT RESISTANCE IS 95C,flip,hold,False,True,1824.1137,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T18:20:33.866985Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I had absolutely no idea what I was doing here but my $100 turned into $200, so thanks for that",hold,decrease,False,True,19.3029,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:34:45.861204Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The ***exit liquidity*** is buying,flip,decrease,False,True,3729.6222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:46:44.811724Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i said i changed my mind after doing more research.,flip,flip,True,True,2518.6,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:59:45.610845Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""Back in 2009, the folks over at OKCupid culled through the site's data and similarly found that race played a big role ",hold,hold,True,True,110.004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:14:35.736839Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ANYONE CAN FAKE AN EMAIL ADDRESS THAT SHIT IS EASY ASF TO SPOOF,flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T22:04:07.915903Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"i also think that, i also think there is no insdiers. but ppl telling how dalailama is insider, podgies is insider and n",decrease,hold,False,True,235.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-17T22:04:15.909378Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Its really 50/50 odds in crypto the market can just skyrocket or collapse at any moment,hold,decrease,False,True,331.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T04:19:32.745714Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i cancelled the sell order now.,flip,decrease,False,True,2834.9686,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T14:07:51.123788Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"guwop just doesn't want you to get rich, think about it",increase,hold,False,True,1034.999,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T17:08:38.092527Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I am not deying that it will rebound a little, but to think it hits 100k after the fomo is beggining to die out is wild",decrease,increase,False,True,129.4262,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T09:19:03.507743Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"He hasn't announced when he will buy yet though, that's the thing. We have an entire trading day to see, starting in a f",hold,decrease,False,True,165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:28:10.748828Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"any chance of btc coming back up to 98k over the weekend, 5 - 10% ?",decrease,decrease,True,True,3510.0479,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T16:19:53.709855Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Ye needs to tweet so I can go big,flip,hold,False,True,12427.4037,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:52:30.083201Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"btc mooning, soon ATH so he is buying even on weekend. hahha",flip,increase,False,True,2029.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-18T16:42:16.037438Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Same thing I¡¯m thinking the same. They bought on the 9th and 15th of this month. Why would the turn around and buy more,increase,increase,True,True,24.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T04:24:02.536657Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bro. 2800 usd is like 8 month avg indian salary. Sell now and live another day,flip,decrease,False,True,1824.1137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T21:10:00.752185Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Yes but im right in the end dont u think so ? Everyone does whatever he wants with his money and in the end he still can,flip,decrease,False,True,252.6024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:27:53.751906Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,stop believing and know instead,flip,increase,False,True,3683.2722,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:22:53.786032Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,his next tweet makes or breaks this market. good luck nobros,flip,decrease,False,True,121.7912,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T20:27:46.837097Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"If a guy called Dave Smith changes his name to Jack Smith, then buys a house, the house is in Jack Smiths name not Dave ",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:08:55.407079Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He followed some random account,hold,hold,True,True,5533.7285,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:34:02.547991Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I really wonder who the real CFO is. is it Hussein?,flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T10:45:53.165925Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"my dad works for nazi west, please expect nazi coin in like 2-3 business days, go buy some yes and make millions, this i",hold,flip,False,True,131.8231,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:15:20.295506Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"4% away and a 70% chance of not happening? Do the math, yes is about to explode",flip,increase,False,True,273.5393,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T11:58:28.268538Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,5 days left on this shitshow and somehow you can still get 2.5x your money for betting on it won't happen,hold,increase,False,True,30336.6707,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-04T17:55:27.855429Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,But even if they got paid for misinformation what would anyone get out of it,decrease,hold,False,True,5655.3276,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:41:44.779287Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Been here 2 months this comment section is the best so far haha,decrease,hold,False,True,595.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:26:41.400676Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,all guys who sold at 15 cents are now rebuying after expiriencing massive panic :),flip,increase,False,True,2029.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-23T21:41:08.044246Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"on Monday you will lose your fucking money and u know where will come, TO NO HOLDERS HAHAHAHAHAHAH",increase,increase,True,True,307.02,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:10:30.244428Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yes Ye, keep talking about lauren pisciotta for a few more days",flip,hold,False,True,149.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T17:38:30.808273Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Why did you see it and still hold it,hold,decrease,False,True,902.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T07:54:30.857237Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,https://polymarket.com/profile/0xe18cf27e93bdb34ca49e60f7b59df0496c2cd678 I hope this loser's mom gets taken advantage o,flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:33:54.530584Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Oh Shit, he just launched its over",increase,flip,False,True,3526.0437,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:48:04.668535Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i explained in another comment,flip,hold,False,True,2518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:08.023809Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,you know something how market works stupid? dollar trade against BTC so war is bad for dollar that means dollar goes dow,hold,increase,False,True,26.43,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:36:23.793929Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,hes not gonna tweet sell while u can,decrease,increase,False,True,9.38,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:36:46.955041Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SAW YOU SWITCH FROM SCHIZOKANYE'S ACCOUNT IN REALTIME,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T03:26:16.581864Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Fair price is gonna drop for every day that he doesn¡¯t launch a coin,flip,increase,False,True,277.9544,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T10:30:29.462166Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"noers you should totally sell, i'd love to buy the shares for cheapers :3",decrease,hold,False,True,38.1071,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-03T18:08:53.471317Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,lol if ppl read their investor filings they would have known they're not buying from yesterday. thats why i bought a lot,decrease,increase,False,True,1499.4534,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:05:45.829363Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Just wanted to thank all, It's latenight/morning in Aus so I need to cash out majority of my yess positions and sleep, w",flip,decrease,False,True,167.8419,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-11T21:14:22.502025Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"Last week the rules were the same and nobody disputed it.It was resolved to ""Yes"",so no worries.",hold,hold,True,True,691.3282,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T22:01:19.900554Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,Presidents' Day: February 17 (Monday) the holiday is on monday but saylor announce in monday what he has bought during l,decrease,increase,False,True,35.24,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T05:59:14.830618Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't Drop That Thun Thun Don't Drop That Thun Thun,decrease,hold,False,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T10:07:47.635908Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Some ppl dont understand that wen he posted dot chart means nothing, market resloved when he posted PURCHASE",increase,hold,False,True,318.02,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T09:09:52.528196Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"im buying more no, its on sale",increase,increase,True,True,216.78,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:21:13.802772Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I agree. It's like those people that make YouTube courses on ""How to get rich"" and then sell courses. If they had a Get ",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T17:43:48.449719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,The usage of 'ROTFLMAO' is dumb. Sorry for your loss btw.,flip,decrease,False,True,717.5225,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:28:16.541367Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Plot twist: Bowbow has multiple accounts (¡°yes¡± and ¡°no¡±) and is an official market maker on Polymarket,increase,hold,False,True,999.73,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:57:20.581685Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,F3UCK Y'3LL 'YES' N3GGAS..... GIVING ME ALL THE STRESS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.... ILL DESTORY YOU GUYS 1 DOLLAR AT A TIME,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T13:44:37.903539Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Thank you. Can you tell me what's special about them? (if it's hard for you, don't say it)",increase,hold,False,True,36.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:11:30.587534Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"imagine you were Ye right now, I'd have the time of my life",flip,hold,False,True,744.1725,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T19:07:35.049754Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It won't happen. Every second that passes is in our favor.,increase,increase,True,True,2843.8682,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-19T19:27:49.044316Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"THEY BUYED CHECK NEWS ..........,............????",increase,flip,False,True,350.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T15:01:26.327393Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Polymarket is worth over 80 million, I don't think they care about this shit",increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:17:17.692341Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Top NO holder Zyn sold his all shares 10 mins before the Zendesk post and none of top yes holders fresh accounts are sel,decrease,flip,False,True,358.86,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-21T14:35:57.838029Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Yet not a single yes share to your name. Makes you wonder what your motives are.,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-07T16:15:34.270077Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",110000 easy. trump inaugeration will make it pump,hold,increase,False,True,19.99,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T21:15:33.642732Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You bought NO at 82 and are telling others about 'bitter failure',hold,flip,False,True,969.0409,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:46:06.050654Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,ur mom told me to sell after i cummed in her,flip,hold,False,True,2518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:21:24.020531Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I am just on here for fun. If I wanted to all in degen bet on these markets like u my buy ins would be much higher.,increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T18:13:35.254849Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"well i mean as long it's not too much money for u, fair enough.",flip,decrease,False,True,14.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T06:13:54.142009Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"sounds great but I hate to break it to you, not one thing you've said is new. So thanks",increase,increase,True,True,7733.4081,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:56:47.324157Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,A friend from my high stakes crypto trading circle knows I m in this mess,decrease,hold,False,True,4264.0838,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:36:31.060769Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,can we stop giving rug pullers exit liquidity. what are we doing?,increase,increase,True,True,10468.0497,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:34:25.372588Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,he already owns 12% of this market,hold,hold,True,True,264.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T17:14:08.170281Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Back down to 93k, lets keep the downward momentum going ??",decrease,increase,False,True,43.48,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T10:08:32.889772Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"If anyone wants to buy no on yearly, i am selling there quite a lot near mid price, so if anyone can buy would hrlp mr o",increase,decrease,False,True,14366.748,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T18:57:19.517694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm all in. No standing back, no backing down. This is where legends are made. STAND YOUR GROUND! HODL!",increase,increase,True,True,2075.6963,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:39:06.681504Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"no resistance until mid 40s, one whale buying no and it's a huge bump, and that's just with technical analysis. Ye isn't",decrease,increase,False,True,91.1412,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-04T05:25:12.276863Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,cant believe somebody can be so low on IQ as Fujin,increase,hold,False,True,5403.8271,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:34:25.711777Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This doesn't even make any sense. There's what, ~130 hours even left on this thing and if he doesn't launch specifically",hold,increase,False,True,30336.6707,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T10:10:58.386597Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bowbow wallet if you want ti have an idea of how much he is rich : first 0x1929347E025D4F5F8D6B2Bd2261e2f4EfcAcd215,decrease,hold,False,True,39.1077,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:28:33.920015Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"People are panicking a bit too much. There can always be delays, and that's decently likely given the incident with Mile",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:06:56.053575Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,imagine explaining this market to your mom when she asks where your college fund went,flip,decrease,False,True,166.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:02:25.692938Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Why is someone buying ""NO""? Statistically, MicroStrategy has always bought $BTC on Monday after the post, that¡¯s a fact",hold,increase,False,True,4999.6935,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T18:02:06.821692Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"that would be fine for me... i'D sell at 99k or 99,5k",flip,decrease,False,True,14.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:58:22.921038Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,The 500K market would be trading at 80 cents for the NO shares if that was the case,decrease,hold,False,True,5902.1092,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T18:56:18.651442Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I mean maybe. But if you to coinmarketcap and you roll back on a year by year basis almost every year, in the last week ",flip,decrease,False,True,86.9792,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T11:46:00.996329Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,No holders ready for Saylormoon posting the green dot BS posting?,hold,decrease,False,True,3550.2354,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T08:58:36.806295Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Just break 96k already omg, I want my shares back cheap",increase,decrease,False,True,60.2237,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T21:00:53.240272Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I mean someone has to pay the bill...,flip,decrease,False,True,1952.7519,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T09:36:43.368928Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye is a triple A artist, not some lowlife like adam22 or the hawktuah girl",increase,increase,True,True,1577.4885,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-26T12:33:31.860638Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"Well, I think this week he'll skip",hold,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:44:43.264915Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Dump those bags, 30 i the highest no goes",decrease,flip,False,True,64.2094,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T13:36:39.191923Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Man stop the cope. Nobody living paycheck to paycheck is dumping their salaries into something that has doubled in the p,decrease,increase,False,True,24.5979,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T15:22:32.969038Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,100k on no? bro he is gonna announce the buy tomorrow,hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:03:00.673181Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,zoomers when reply has 13 words,decrease,hold,False,True,36.97,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:49:34.461558Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He might troll everyone for attention and drop something else than a coin,hold,decrease,False,True,5320.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:16:15.959081Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,what does that even mean daddy,decrease,hold,False,True,322.1504,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:47:17.738559Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yeah obviously it¡¯s not ideal that he acknowledged that he might wants to drop a coin, but he gave key information on t",flip,decrease,False,True,3729.6222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T16:15:55.644295Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bro I think you should de-risk... Isn't 1k usd like 1.5 million rupees in india?,flip,decrease,False,True,1824.1137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:23:18.137948Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Zyn lost 100k, that's the equivalent of 7 years of hard labor on minimum wage",increase,hold,False,True,166.1765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T11:19:59.519663Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Both keykash and tenable-dome officially out! Who¡¯s the retard?,flip,hold,False,True,2446.2921,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-05T13:49:48.140609Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Definitely not he was wrong in if mstr gonna buy more than 200 plus btc market check,decrease,increase,False,True,5163.0436,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-22T05:55:07.399339Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,Can someone explain why the essence of the question and the explanation below differ in meaning? Specific question: will,increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T12:57:38.882766Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Seriously, I don't understand how such stupid people can have such a large amount of money. And who am I talking about -",increase,hold,False,True,1034.999,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:25:53.759521Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,next week? he may do it Friday next week if so that is the 28th so risky,decrease,decrease,True,True,2.7352,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T05:10:27.460318Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",When you spend all your doe on all the other btc markets before seeing this one... ??,hold,decrease,False,True,0.76,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T19:50:16.613429Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,I wanna be the biggest genius or the biggest retard let¡¯s do this,increase,increase,True,True,1013.0962,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T21:32:32.798125Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"110k, saylor buying all btc on Sunday, no etfs today so only one logical buyer.",flip,increase,False,True,21.5279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:37:07.493541Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Coins are like overhyped collections which prey on they fans. And you really think he launches,hold,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T16:37:14.745133Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"if it happens, it'll be months from now",decrease,increase,False,True,8020.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T15:10:16.235478Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Market crashing left and right. I¡¯m so glad I sold my eth so I could bet on this market. I¡¯m a genius,flip,increase,False,True,1824.1137,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:46:05.828817Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,getting tough being a notard rn,increase,decrease,False,True,349.94,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T21:08:45.124823Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,think its fine as my best knowledge is in hiphop and heres often hiphop genres and if u look at my activity i made nice ,increase,hold,False,True,4.9284,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-15T21:55:09.660019Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I just talked to the team, they are doing it today",hold,flip,False,True,57.12,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T10:43:24.073039Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,For sure It¡¯s a good bet to put some good money,increase,flip,False,True,27.56,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:59:06.649064Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Also, why are the ""YZY insiders"" leaking so much information to the news reporter, all about tokenomics, the supposed to",flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2722,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T11:03:16.511687Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I would just like to acknowlege bow bow- The number 1 Donater to us no holders!!!,decrease,hold,False,True,23.1507,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T03:24:56.401301Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,But we don't celebrate thanksgiving here in the East,increase,hold,False,True,54.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T18:56:01.742961Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Plot Twist: He's secretly designing a coin logo,increase,hold,False,True,1285.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:29:39.874003Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"so thank you all for the dopamine shakeup, see ya at Sunday",flip,decrease,False,True,7716.2955,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:44:27.495059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"i'm famous enough to talk to Kanye personally, i'm actually pulling the strings on this whole operation",increase,decrease,False,True,67.2206,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T02:03:54.352923Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Y? You guys more convinced that he will launch today than yesterday?,flip,decrease,False,True,1824.1137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:52:47.840451Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,So they yes guys including me might be cooked xD,hold,decrease,False,True,3.84,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-26T13:55:49.774109Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,@pbshine are we fucked actually and we trapped not NO side ?,decrease,decrease,True,True,25.45,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T23:17:42.687957Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Our hero BowBow renamed itself to BuySell. Still a hero!,decrease,hold,False,True,256.2004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:47.643131Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"December is still far away, the problem is that the buying power will be soon gone",flip,decrease,False,True,2271.7461,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T19:52:24.940657Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,He just bought 1500$ of yes share,hold,increase,False,True,24.5999,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:48:47.207041Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"hussein, can you accept my calls",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T16:57:12.298683Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Anyone who thinks Ye is going to launch a coin before the deadline obviously hasn't waited for one of his albums before,hold,increase,False,True,958.43,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T06:35:19.008997Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,wtf btc doesnt trade on the US market??,hold,hold,True,True,301.5004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:20:59.309835Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"thats actually march 2nd. if your going to scam, be better",decrease,hold,False,True,18526.2828,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:19:26.324267Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"RonDeStantis is either simply exiting his No position, or is about to switch sides to Yes.",decrease,decrease,True,True,3322.7214,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:26:54.366079Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Lol still buying 'yes' eh.... GO FOR BROKE,flip,increase,False,True,834.0537,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-25T16:03:29.194011Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","Whatever drove you to this decision, tap into it and use it to stay. You thought it won¡¯t drop below 85 k - stick with ",increase,increase,True,True,5219.0828,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-11T12:29:58.519189Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,If I get any goldfish I will name one of them Pat,hold,hold,True,True,768.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:50:12.289639Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Microstrategy just mass sold ALL their bitcoin. What does that mean for this market? :/,decrease,decrease,True,True,9.38,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:17:53.974882Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i have information that you will want to know,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2722,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-27T18:52:43.490339Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Do yall think i'll hit 100K this week?,hold,decrease,False,True,550.117,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:07:16.149847Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Coindesk famous for unreliable articles, wrong CFO in email, launch delayed cause they got to know about Libra appearent",increase,increase,True,True,3611.57,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T12:07:41.993413Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Omg bro i told you to quit few days ago you are too emotional for this,decrease,decrease,True,True,5533.7285,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T17:45:57.956994Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Well personally it was just a value bet. He def could purchase by Monday, but getting 7x my money for any slight error o",increase,decrease,False,True,402.31,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:03:53.878409Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can you send link or just nothing happened,decrease,hold,False,True,79.94,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T00:10:48.555149Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your NO guys i will be happy to get it for $0.25,increase,decrease,False,True,573.7366,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-31T18:51:00.611812Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I am finally in profit. I am the greatest gambler of all time. Thats the most important rule for gambling: if you are lo,hold,increase,False,True,273.032,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:42:20.145922Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yes he is i can attest to that -outcast2024 from Harvard,decrease,flip,False,True,759.75,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T17:21:16.781554Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,tomorrow 95k support and pusing 97k-98k again,flip,increase,False,True,2299.3251,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T19:56:03.021336Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,EVERYBODY PLS REPORT THE LINK BELOW IT'S A SCA,increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T21:51:28.172389Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,not a good payout so no but yes holders been saying wait till tmr big day tmr and stuff like that for like 4 days straig,decrease,increase,False,True,17.1503,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-23T04:55:43.919036Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"nice to meet you, I'm your duke of the retarded kingdom",increase,hold,False,True,8.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:37:40.096067Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Watch the weak hands buy back no on tuesday or wednesday,hold,hold,True,True,5320.89,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:27:01.977727Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woke up at 20cents and had a minor heart attack, glad I didn't panic sold in sleep drowsiness",decrease,decrease,True,True,744.1744,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T13:34:12.738584Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm a new and I would like to ask top holders if it makes sense to use limit orders? and how do you use them?,increase,hold,False,True,36.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T18:57:22.162976Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I deposited 50k a few months ago I already had a good amount,increase,hold,False,True,5340.6481,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:29:03.797593Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-100000-on-november-29/bitcoin-above-100000-on-november-29?tid=1732652882617 L,increase,flip,False,True,77.3518,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T23:50:47.930885Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,is it comming tonight or friday night?,increase,decrease,False,True,5.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T00:48:14.089252Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,thank you sellwallsan for moving your price point,hold,hold,True,True,1167.2753,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T22:56:15.651692Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"those odds are cooked, if it was 35c i would have bought",increase,decrease,False,True,52.6209,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T10:10:03.364989Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"Honestly i dont trust that london insider who know maybe is true but i dont care, last time he bought very big amount pr",decrease,decrease,True,True,47.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T14:27:28.173489Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,I have built my position. Will be so sad if I lose,decrease,decrease,True,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:35:46.027358Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,fr if all goes well im going on a short vaca,hold,hold,True,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-11T16:48:46.603453Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,Microstrategy may need to sell some of it¡¯s BTC in 2026 - anyone else confirm if this is legit article?,increase,decrease,False,True,36.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-16T18:24:37.003194Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Na bro, the runs not over, next run within 24h.",hold,increase,False,True,8.9631,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T15:10:42.627119Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I'm glad to be part of the NO team, congratulations guys!!",decrease,hold,False,True,298.5634,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-21T12:09:20.293053Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Small buy??? Bro thats nearly $1b worth of BTC lol,hold,hold,True,True,10897.4074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T12:06:13.771166Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,I thought for sure this was the week lol,hold,decrease,False,True,2487.8602,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T15:36:53.519671Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He is the only one true insider in this market,decrease,hold,False,True,7573.2448,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-21T11:28:25.177364Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,thats why i say thanks for the money friend!,decrease,increase,False,True,303.16,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T08:11:08.616287Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't Drop That Thun Thun Don't Drop That Thun Thun,decrease,hold,False,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:52:41.870949Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"just imagine, a secret coin. which all of Twitter and the polymarket already know. very true. It's just psychology, no i",decrease,decrease,True,True,7235.835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:34:23.379174Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,wait until yes holders realise they need 100k not 97 ??,decrease,hold,False,True,632.2521,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T06:17:20.504593Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Is originalZyn trying to see how much he can lose in this market? Impressive!,decrease,decrease,True,True,278.5352,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T00:25:14.848708Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"100% no launch tonight based on his tweets. Also he will go to sleep soon, meaning NO will gradually go up only througho",decrease,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T05:57:08.141196Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,they are just making a new merch site because the shopify got banned,increase,increase,True,True,2125.93,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:21:19.342356Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,and will smith... he hates will smith,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:19:32.518478Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Awesome thanks for clearing that up. Just bought 1 million N¡¯s,hold,increase,False,True,4294.336,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:08:30.313149Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I had a chance to buy in at 2.4.. got greedy and was hoping for 1.9.. lesson learnt,increase,decrease,False,True,2201.2848,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:48:47.144425Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,idk they seemed way too excited to make a few hundred from selling dog pics,increase,decrease,False,True,2434.786,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T11:17:13.330522Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Well, I can buy and hodl at the same time right? As long as he doesn¡¯t sell he¡¯s HODLing so I don¡¯t understand how th",hold,hold,True,True,8.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T09:07:02.750612Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"We will all know for future, we know how Saylor buying BTC we have max 3 hours from here to expect post, Saylor always a",hold,increase,False,True,689.7017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T01:54:21.155979Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Why cant I use emojis in comments while others can? (iPhone),decrease,hold,False,True,247.9764,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T11:06:04.867384Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Will the finsl payout be the same if i hold ?,increase,decrease,False,True,618.46,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T21:40:46.160617Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,man 6 more days of retards falling for kanyes trolling and believing he means any of this shit,increase,increase,True,True,790.8954,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T11:49:08.837917Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"man, I'm trading here not fisrt time. I've seen a lot of people like u. And And they never won, even though they believe",decrease,decrease,True,True,7208.2108,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T05:53:03.537513Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow is either a genius or a hopeless gambling addict lol,decrease,hold,False,True,1645.6836,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T12:27:15.988912Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,He buys almost every week. That's it lol.,flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T21:08:49.563105Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,All these whites care about Ukraine but don't give a fuck about Palestine or the Congo. Whites only care about Ukraine b,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-23T02:51:58.331074Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","more than happy to answer your question. If you look on the coinbase orderbook, you're going to see a brick wall of sell",hold,decrease,False,True,1275.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T21:04:09.201657Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Neither yes or no is a safe bet, it can jump really high, or really low fast",flip,decrease,False,True,2959.2699,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:17:38.153917Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,No matter what happens someone is literally committing a crime right now,decrease,hold,False,True,740.0212,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T18:04:10.780467Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,top N has placed a fat sell block at 57,increase,hold,False,True,7730.6081,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T23:43:18.092502Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"In sunday we will know, if Saylor post dot chart after 12hours from now, Yes will pump to 99c, if he post random post, N",decrease,hold,False,True,235.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T22:06:42.022735Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,everybody thank aenews for the 90 THOUSAND dono,hold,hold,True,True,61.7794,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:06:52.268966Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The retard below made a coin with 12$ market cap nobody bought your retarded shit,increase,increase,True,True,3526.0437,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T03:19:21.338162Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Everyone talking about BowBow, but what about Circus?! Hes the real man of the people. Buying you out when Yes is high a",flip,hold,False,True,2058.6286,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:41:11.180062Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,20c at 94k few das ago 20c at 95k yesterday 20c 97k now 20c at 98.5k tomorrow ??,flip,increase,False,True,52.6209,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T15:18:46.397751Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Coin is launching guys i talked with insiders,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T22:25:15.067292Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Seeing so many complete dumbfucks losing tens of thousands felt amazing,decrease,increase,False,True,1090.345,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T11:07:21.174409Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"i've seen many retards in my life, but alphax holds a special place among them",increase,hold,False,True,0.0001,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:23:46.088709Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"I dont wanna say, i dont want other ppl to start buying yes.... but yes i know about 21 jan.",decrease,increase,False,True,6876.0182,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T22:08:40.837844Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"free money, I think I'll buy the nazi t-shirt",increase,hold,False,True,160.73,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T08:20:07.524703Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Where tf u live to pay $134 for rent,increase,hold,False,True,1046.8872,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:57:52.587551Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You're not black, but even if you are, you're one of those self-hating blacks, that bows down and appeases whites",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T11:59:41.502108Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I hope so too, we believe in him so much.",decrease,hold,False,True,17927.37,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:52:06.797264Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,what happened to bowbow not selling shares?,decrease,hold,False,True,10361.214,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T00:10:32.717272Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I trusted in american polls, but I guess you learn from mistakes",increase,decrease,False,True,4713.7951,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-15T19:46:33.341885Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,if he posts a green dot tomorrow then i'm gonna be more retired from betting than RetiredDavis,increase,hold,False,True,23679.0856,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:57:28.705782Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Only 1% will make 10,000% PnL, other 99% will lose EVERYTHING",hold,decrease,False,True,613.18,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T06:46:30.727356Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,the challenge ends at 11:59 pm ET,hold,hold,True,True,2135.79,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:25:47.795151Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he transfered them to so called insiders,hold,decrease,False,True,435.3255,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:48:56.268008Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,we are fine. thank the lord ??,flip,hold,False,True,2058.6286,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:02:22.673177Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,All this is based on 1 article from Coindesk and Coindesk's source is this very weird email. Time will indeed tell if we,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2722,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T13:50:52.324605Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"We are in retail trap, in few days comes panic sell to 80k",flip,decrease,False,True,18.8989,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T15:31:38.138752Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,good luck finding no at 30 again,flip,increase,False,True,18.8989,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T17:33:15.497817Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,YES HOLDERS I BRING GOOD NEWS! I HAVE JUST RECIVED WORD THAT ANDREW CAKE WILL PUMP BITCOIN WITH 6 TRILLION ROMANIAN SHEK,flip,flip,True,True,4108.94,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:53:27.404995Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He launched the coin... we win,flip,flip,True,True,90.0736,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:45:18.830016Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"quick! buy your cheap No's, the ship is leaving",flip,increase,False,True,2058.6286,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T10:30:00.412764Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I want to donate some money to the polymarkets charity,increase,hold,False,True,44.01,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T05:27:01.958281Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Had to top up with these nice odds,decrease,increase,False,True,19502.0095,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T11:02:22.400572Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye told me he is just pumping rumors to buy cheaper NO shares here.,increase,increase,True,True,510.8878,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T07:24:36.844926Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,When they bough and say about it,decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T16:32:46.540725Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Whippidy Whoppidy! Your money is my property!,hold,hold,True,True,1765.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:35:48.004788Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I will tip YES buyers a dollar for good luck just say hi,decrease,hold,False,True,6137.3629,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:04:40.120938Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,That was the most obvious pump and dump I've seen in a while.,hold,increase,False,True,135.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-13T23:13:42.342788Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"simple, he's not announced a new convertible note and now there's not enough time to get one done.",hold,increase,False,True,4132.1642,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T11:17:06.259205Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Nothing wrong with L's- we ALL take em.... but what I dislike is the attitude. We all learn, but no need for the other s",hold,hold,True,True,174.23,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T12:23:03.823736Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"The last one was pre 6220BTC purchase. The latest one is post that buy. Still no evidence hes bought yet, but tracker ch",increase,hold,False,True,811.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:38:05.358969Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Hussein is a Yeezy employee, not the CFO",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:57.098096Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,you retarted bugs playing against whale? low level iq mazafakers,decrease,decrease,True,True,134.4,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-31T15:09:07.085809Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Honestly a very large amount of shares doesn't immediately mean insider tho. By that definition you would also be consid,increase,hold,False,True,310.0208,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T13:23:54.595644Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,you seem to have forgotten him,flip,flip,True,True,12715.8105,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T16:56:48.954848Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Cheaper entrance points have arrived.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1599.495,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:52:14.477227Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"People are so dumb bow2 is a bot or market maker, look at the buy amounts lol. 0.38$ purchase? Haahah",hold,hold,True,True,3.84,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:50:37.212456Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bullishonsol is selling his YES. Dump your bags before it crashes,flip,decrease,False,True,12.5502,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:14:06.192083Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The end of the month is coming soon =),flip,decrease,False,True,23.8,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:56:15.231804Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,all it takes is one tweet for the price to go back to 60,increase,decrease,False,True,3886.6229,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T18:56:41.382794Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,where do you get that disinfo ? it's not stox lol,flip,decrease,False,True,39.567,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:38:44.452856Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I just got the coin early, it's pumping",increase,flip,False,True,3526.0437,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T16:43:14.455955Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"OMG its Sam Kessler again, guys its ggs. But I swear his credible sources said last Friday? eh they probably meant this ",decrease,decrease,True,True,13497.617,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-23T04:18:33.746514Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,https://www.strategy.com/purchases there is no purchaces between 17 and 23,hold,increase,False,True,1.4996,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:12:52.429122Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,did you really got tricked but scum coin or what,increase,decrease,False,True,53.11,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:11:35.794395Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You should see his what his potential win for 29th Nov is looking like,increase,increase,True,True,2201.2848,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T16:06:35.952984Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,All the time. See his activity. Averaging from few days,decrease,increase,False,True,90.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:13:31.991261Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,when this resolves to no i¡¯ll tip 100$ to a random gambling addict that comments in this thread,decrease,hold,False,True,759.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:52:29.303184Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,they told me it could be delayed,flip,decrease,False,True,3.0787,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T21:12:49.482835Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I haven't lost money, the bet I am on currently has not ended and odds are obviously in my favour and close to my buy in",hold,hold,True,True,26.3264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T22:10:22.112481Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Polymarket wil not create such a market.,hold,hold,True,True,4264.0838,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T20:56:09.499644Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"n(A)z(I) someone get me Ye on the line, i got his AI company name",decrease,hold,False,True,966.6325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T20:49:17.838049Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",doesnt have to be a full minute,increase,hold,False,True,1186.6251,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T16:59:30.668749Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Last 4 times Saylor post purchase on same time 8:00AM ET or 14:00 PM europe,hold,increase,False,True,689.7017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:12:06.035887Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,@georgefloydfentanyl you will buy my no shares at 1$,hold,increase,False,True,5724.53,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T20:57:36.338705Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Launching a blockchain could take a while, but let's be honest here: Ye has no idea what he's doing. Today alone he's sh",increase,decrease,False,True,349.94,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T11:19:37.931645Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Let's hope MicroStrategy pays my trip to Japan ??,hold,hold,True,True,15.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:37:44.945125Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Setting up an SPV and being fully ready to launch in 6 days could be difficult, time will tell tho lol",flip,decrease,False,True,3729.6222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T16:32:24.384506Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","NOt that fast, these predictions are tricky... when price gets so close it usually revisits it... unless you fount the t",increase,decrease,False,True,156.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:34:56.883906Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Chris Mckinney... who are you in reality?,flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:36:57.452029Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How many people use indicators for trading? Do they really work to help guide trading?,decrease,hold,False,True,86.9789,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:33:16.825748Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"mhm yea fs, one would definitely sell 200k worth of positions instantly after the ""news"" broke that makes sense",increase,decrease,False,True,10468.0497,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-04T18:53:22.518254Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"you know, the loudest ones are often the losers",increase,hold,False,True,3.04,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T13:32:07.279092Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Sell for who? No one is buying this.,hold,hold,True,True,0.9996,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-08T12:27:01.634583Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,"He post About bitcoin everyday, we¡¯ll see the results tomorrow!!",hold,flip,False,True,1.56,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T17:42:02.639698Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I am thinking to breakeven, this is crazy volatile!!! wdyt",decrease,decrease,True,True,196.1205,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T01:17:07.531762Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Supposedly, @barkmeta who bought the posting rights of Kanye's X account launched the Yeezy coin and rug pulled it. He p",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:46:11.775104Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"BTW, THERE'S ONLY 1 ARTICLE ON ALL OF THIS --------------- COINDESK.",flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T18:11:06.457131Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i know... 52w low/high, heads shoulders have some value but elliott waves not so much.",flip,hold,False,True,14.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:37:49.885363Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,STAY OUT OF THIS MARKET!!! WARNING TO ALL PEOPLE CONSIDERING BUYING NO: STOP!!! INSIDERS ARE CASHING IN ON BOTH THIS AND,hold,decrease,False,True,72.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T19:05:20.519066Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Possibly last chance to get out and switch to No....,flip,decrease,False,True,1208.5753,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:06:47.924202Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Join us.. you know you want to ??,increase,increase,True,True,2201.2848,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T21:46:51.512871Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"dump: completed, retail trap: in progress, panic selloff: loading",increase,increase,True,True,722.4882,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-23T18:02:22.504826Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,The sale is meant to go through on 25th,increase,hold,False,True,83.69,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:16:26.504149Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,thx for actually talking to us,decrease,hold,False,True,759.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T12:16:32.407565Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Thank you all from my me and my other account day dreamer ??,decrease,hold,False,True,4220.3061,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:16:00.566851Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This market is too retarded for me ngl, fun to pay attention to though.",hold,hold,True,True,4.2684,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T06:24:53.336913Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I need btc to go down to 91k so I can more YES,hold,decrease,False,True,32.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:50:32.380985Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wth is quaint mean? bro is making up words, trying to trick us",decrease,hold,False,True,4444.2472,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T21:58:49.695603Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He¡¯ll cash back on liquidity awards, trust da plan",increase,hold,False,True,1093.8844,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:34:49.100037Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye didn't even get to announce his own official coin before it got rugged,decrease,increase,False,True,22.0109,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:00:21.255275Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I notice that almost every small holder here has a very big mouth ??,increase,hold,False,True,999.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T00:15:29.384523Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Crypto journalism is a joke man, imagine falling for a random ass fucking article",decrease,increase,False,True,1090.345,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T19:37:25.557199Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Buying more Yes in next 15 minutes,increase,increase,True,True,447697.4223,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T12:51:59.057044Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"If you look closely, you see the new dot.",decrease,hold,False,True,1720.3403,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T23:40:17.896041Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,Would be kinda funny if the bond bettors lost,increase,hold,False,True,1028.0962,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:45:40.908652Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,But you're a trump supporter though. Trump and Elon are nazis,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T13:30:59.612354Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,True. I want you as my alies bro. Hit me up on discord @0xpareto.eth,decrease,hold,False,True,79936.06,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:35:12.691321Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Hussein, aren't you the real CFO? WHAT?",flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T01:14:41.051264Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,This market is totally crazy. Love it,flip,hold,False,True,166.7858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T23:51:18.539682Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,'NO' Holders BUCKLE UP.... WE'RE READY FOR TAKEOFF,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-23T14:18:18.364154Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"26 more hrs to go, ready to get rich",increase,increase,True,True,1195.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-10T10:02:49.481543Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Please Mr. Saylor, delay the announcement ;)",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T11:36:31.429641Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,True scares me as well haha but don't mind if my investment is lost. worth take the risk,decrease,decrease,True,True,51.05,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T07:44:02.837744Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Haha clock is ticking and less and less time and people buying YES , LOL ??",increase,flip,False,True,9.7,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:29:34.630744Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"you would be correct, my bad, read the number too quick",flip,hold,False,True,4416.0467,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T07:52:23.957209Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"???? ALERT ALERT ???? @MiyamotoMusashi is -$2,104.27",flip,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T16:10:22.198368Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",it¡¯s not over until I say it¡¯s over,decrease,increase,False,True,5545.8165,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:10:46.338834Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,'no' holders that sold got scammed by j3ws,hold,hold,True,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:11:10.920567Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"still a chance for yes, saylor just doesnt care to post the chart for peanut buys.",flip,decrease,False,True,211.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:14:04.440605Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nope, even when adjusted for income blacks commit way more crime",increase,hold,False,True,2434.786,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T07:40:02.739321Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"im stupid and bought more usdc on coinbase with my bank account so it takes until the 25th to be transferrable, and im n",hold,decrease,False,True,1951.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T11:52:46.754Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I've run the numbers and each hour that goes by gets us closer to the end.,hold,increase,False,True,30336.6707,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:53:49.294261Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,100k looking not so unreachable now??,flip,increase,False,True,2959.2699,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:43:21.133417Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Iranon, im sorry but youre not Car",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:00:58.069497Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,if he doesnt drop on solana i gotta get a job bruh,hold,decrease,False,True,1951.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T14:24:51.530766Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29 no trades are at 68%... do people think that alot could happen in 1 day lmaooo",decrease,decrease,True,True,38.1071,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:47:21.493706Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Market is sooo inefficient. This guy could be posting porn, dropping albums, dropping merch, going off on j3ws or millio",flip,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-18T07:11:24.771681Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bitcoin will take more than November to reach 100k and remember, the higher the price the more people want to sell",decrease,increase,False,True,33.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T20:34:44.718051Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Man a lot less gloating form the no bros tonight. I wonder if they are felling sorry for yes bros, almost like there sho",flip,increase,False,True,86.4056,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T12:49:33.760989Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Great, I made the right bet in time!",decrease,hold,False,True,298.5634,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:05:27.356718Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He wouldn't. Just don't make sense right now.,flip,hold,False,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T18:50:39.912555Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It's thanksgiving I am not very hopeful tonight looking at the trade volume. But maybe the BTC will find some footing to,decrease,decrease,True,True,86.4056,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:24:44.644445Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I can't believe when I started this journey, I didn't think we'd win... we're gonna win.",hold,increase,False,True,1586.4206,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T07:37:02.045654Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"migga = mexican, wigga = white, chigga = chinese, jigga = jewish or japanese. Any others?",flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T11:28:19.701235Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,"Yeah fully agree but I think the price isnt too bad, who knows he might only buy tomorrow",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T05:31:33.765666Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","BTC really just needs to break 100k, the hype will do the rest.",decrease,increase,False,True,120.7114,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:51:39.451957Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Yes are selling and buying no currently,decrease,hold,False,True,502.4478,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T21:04:59.687053Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"@lpmeteora84 stop messing with the price, take it easy",decrease,hold,False,True,4081.039,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-24T11:31:26.684069Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Guys I lied its gonna hit 105k. you should dump everything you have into it trust me !!!!,decrease,flip,False,True,56.3954,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:40:27.729717Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Because he damages the chance of him actually putting out a coin every time he tweets his racist bullshit,decrease,increase,False,True,966.6325,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:05:04.272783Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,As far as I can see a paid article means jack shit,increase,increase,True,True,714.5454,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:29:10.793123Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Who tf is bowbow and why is everyone riding his d*ck,increase,hold,False,True,884.9976,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:46:41.010217Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I just bought this no and BTC is already gaining steam again.,decrease,decrease,True,True,151.7359,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:13:24.226961Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Why have you increased your position so much in the last few hours? There are just over 3 days left and Kanye tweeted th,increase,flip,False,True,160.73,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T14:45:36.903523Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are absolutely correct. If Bullishonsole hadn't bought $2,000+ yesterday, I would still be holding my 6K+ no shares.",decrease,hold,False,True,10.8614,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-07T12:32:33.483766Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"Well, they announced that they did not bought any, isn't this enough for the market to be resolved or it will be too ear",hold,hold,True,True,2802.97,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:55:37.293574Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"US is sleeping now, its black fryday, everybody is happy about the thanksgiving, it will hit 100k",flip,increase,False,True,2959.2699,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T21:29:32.197313Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,That's a whopping 6 grand to throw into the flames!,hold,decrease,False,True,1831.2199,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T12:50:18.152747Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Saylormoon bought a lot this week,flip,increase,False,True,739.2423,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-23T08:25:55.246563Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",isnt no 105k just free? Ur looking at a resistance of over 1.4k bitcoins at 100k a pop. No way in 8 days that it breaks ,increase,increase,True,True,61.016,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T01:42:01.389784Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thanks for your reply. now i understand why everybody is on his ass lol,decrease,hold,False,True,315.42,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-15T13:52:16.770185Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",we all coming from the bottom boys,decrease,increase,False,True,159.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:52:16.541318Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Why aren¡¯t you doubling down on ¡®no¡¯?,flip,flip,True,True,0.3942,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T23:51:11.606057Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"They are selling dollars for 85c, cool",increase,hold,False,True,80.02,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T05:43:48.168091Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Would be hilarious if it actually hit today lmao lets see, good morning europoors",increase,hold,False,True,41.3979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:11:35.629787Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,i thought TIPS and pipi2000 were the same guy?,increase,hold,False,True,25024.2139,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T14:58:40.762047Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,And you know it and still have a negetive pnl ?? and if you mean mean me i never said that youre dumb,increase,hold,False,True,229.0774,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T18:57:01.646844Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,every mstr convert in 2024 was greenshoed and oversubscribed beyond the green shoe by an average of 27%. Expect close to,flip,increase,False,True,2612.9247,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T08:24:51.234189Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He ll launch a store or something its promo,hold,decrease,False,True,47.23,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-10T07:11:59.371049Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Unless you build a new org called MicroStrategy and buy it yourself and Saylor announce that your org buys some btc, the",decrease,increase,False,True,22.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T09:58:01.110228Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,this is a once in a lifetime bet depending on someone posting a x post while shitting,hold,hold,True,True,67.34,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T21:56:10.684977Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",You are about to have your cheeks clapped heavily :D,increase,decrease,False,True,369.6504,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:09:13.812234Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"TLDR, no is now cheaper for the time being. yes, kanye will drop a coin. no, it will not drop in february. theres too mu",decrease,increase,False,True,12247.56,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T07:57:19.763801Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you say so mac.. only takes 2 seconds to see you are spam trolling chat with NO spam thinking its going to effect the,hold,hold,True,True,2201.2848,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T10:22:25.870462Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"its confirmed he will post it , slayor did this before as well",decrease,increase,False,True,7023.75,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T04:33:53.715452Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,No here's the link to his X account : https://x.com/kanyewest,decrease,hold,False,True,288.8638,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T16:14:24.100436Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I am your GF now, BUY MORE NO'S",decrease,increase,False,True,4444.2502,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-23T12:14:50.812204Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,I hope saylor cuck dies man. Wtf is a 245 btc buy,hold,decrease,False,True,76.5297,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:53:51.854543Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,im sorry but at least i HAVE money unlike you,increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:07:38.124365Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,most retarded yes pump ever LMAO thanks for the cheap shares,decrease,increase,False,True,328.4104,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:22:36.638465Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"lmaooo, the good old days in WSB",decrease,hold,False,True,60.713,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T12:30:35.974309Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Still cheap right now 1 dollar for 78c,flip,increase,False,True,1721.9937,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-11T09:49:37.786238Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"Pump it harder, it needs your help",decrease,flip,False,True,2600.923,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:54:09.370829Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He said he liked that the ukraine war was happening because he liked so see whites dying,hold,hold,True,True,4526.4535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T01:26:17.636958Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Im buying more when NO is at 30 cents,increase,increase,True,True,1092.2851,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:39:30.653641Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You can buy 1$ for 34p right now,hold,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-19T21:07:04.027112Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,There's a lawsuit I think that could scare him against buy.,increase,decrease,False,True,111.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T14:12:35.205433Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Probably degen will buy 100k more to buy 911 with single WIN bet. Big capital wins....,flip,increase,False,True,1897.5816,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:30:54.444097Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"LOL, white fragility on display. Me calling out racist whites means I want to kill them? You're retarded.",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:40:30.944643Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"poor bow bow... literally, that mans gonna be on the street corner with a tin can now",flip,hold,False,True,423.8905,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T11:20:11.069084Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,yes bros can take some profits its always good to take some profits,increase,decrease,False,True,18.91,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:58:52.823364Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Contest the results if the coin drops at 12:00:001,flip,hold,False,True,689.5783,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T19:09:58.926944Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I'm bailing out of this market before the Ronaldo+Beast video launches. I just hope it's anything like the previous vide,decrease,decrease,True,True,643.4576,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T00:11:31.981753Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"https://x.com/hitlergov/status/1893429995470455213 officially speaking it's gonna be hitler launching it, not kanye",decrease,hold,False,True,668.9088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T12:16:54.466847Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Either he will actually launch a meme coin or a memorabilia kanye challenge coin lol,hold,hold,True,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T08:03:02.803868Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR_S3Y7A34U&t OMG BIANCA CENSORI IS SO HOT. Hopefully Kanye gets her pregnant,flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T23:30:54.104789Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Hourly candle is looking slim ??,increase,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:50:03.728661Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,OMG HE JUST LAUNCHED... SELL SELL SELL https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1894149826805149884,flip,flip,True,True,1846.3537,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T04:27:04.319675Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"34 minutes left, gg yes and no holders",hold,hold,True,True,28198.3646,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T13:57:12.397285Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Yup.. ans all the No people are gloating like its the 30th Nov,hold,hold,True,True,2201.2848,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:47:57.984432Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Community college about to go hard,flip,hold,False,True,1231.5515,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0fa42000ea7ce8a500a742481fdacf0289eb07ef --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,481 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +545512,2025-05-24T21:46:06.050654Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,ur mom told me to sell after i cummed in her,flip,hold,False,True,2518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:50:45.604488Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,What a filp! didn't you pump yes a minute ago?,hold,flip,False,True,6137.3629,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T19:58:08.473622Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,bro tell me you tg ... gonna tell you sth,hold,hold,True,True,5123.5971,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T17:06:19.624328Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Here we go again¡­ good luck to everyone,decrease,hold,False,True,1181.6032,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:34:07.277423Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol pbshine why you selling ?????? you told me he¡¯s announcing on Monday lol,hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:25:11.400116Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Lmaoo wishing you well my friend, in this game there's a way for everyone to make money",increase,hold,False,True,52.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:57:58.783559Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Inteview with Ye ?? who even is this guy,decrease,hold,False,True,104056.5858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-10T12:51:40.682246Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,??Polymarket clarification: MICHAEL SAYLOR HAS BEEN RENAMED TO SAYLOR MOON THEREFORE THIS MARKET SHOULD RESOLVE 'no',hold,hold,True,True,103.33,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-18T13:07:04.939255Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"WTF guy below talking there is no Eastern Monday, on Monday market work normal.... However i buy YES on 45c lets see but",flip,increase,False,True,54.8685,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-27T19:31:05.838156Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",you need an 11% drop in 33 hours,hold,decrease,False,True,905.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T17:57:26.708443Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I just want to get some money back, I always voted no",flip,flip,True,True,79.06,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T00:34:44.926863Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",what kinda drugs r u on i need sum of that shit fr,decrease,hold,False,True,88.63,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:55:46.053264Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Indeed , That's clearly a insider",hold,increase,False,True,111.6205,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:52:53.249664Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"no worries, we just almost 98k",decrease,increase,False,True,12287.3235,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T15:41:43.823347Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Looks like bowbow gave up.He was buying shares for 23-24 cents now not buying for 17 ...,flip,decrease,False,True,463.0124,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:13:45.177254Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,WHAT DO WE DO I AM LOSING MY MIND,flip,decrease,False,True,166.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:47:57.984432Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Community college about to go hard,flip,hold,False,True,1231.5515,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:01:59.513394Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm a fullstack Software Engineer. You can't do my job, you pink skin Neanderthal. Whites are going extinct.",hold,hold,True,True,110.004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:05:45.829363Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Just wanted to thank all, It's latenight/morning in Aus so I need to cash out majority of my yess positions and sleep, w",flip,decrease,False,True,167.8419,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:17:34.898615Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"APPARENTLY A RANDOM GUY EMAILED COINDESK CLAIMING TO BE ON YEEZY'S TEAM, THIS IS THE SOURCE, IT'S OBVIOUSLY BULLSHIT",increase,increase,True,True,3125.1672,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T11:07:21.174409Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"i've seen many retards in my life, but alphax holds a special place among them",increase,hold,False,True,0.0001,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T10:22:00.059235Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Guys buying yes - give me your money - higher chances if it doing something useful, otherwise you just waste it",hold,flip,False,True,27503.848,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:14:29.167883Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,if we can break threw 98.5k its over,flip,increase,False,True,60.387,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:30:09.478856Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Me and wandereR did an extensive research into this and we already came to the conclusion yesterday that no top YES hold,decrease,increase,False,True,3100.5366,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T21:00:01.056487Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"even if Saylor is done with the ATM, he can still do a convertible note this week. Probably needs to announce it soon th",flip,increase,False,True,6349.6872,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T01:45:06.359994Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,Hopefully he has some more important stuff to do,hold,hold,True,True,449.93,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T06:38:53.195066Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I just want a 98k5 pump to see the no holders panic,decrease,hold,False,True,208.4243,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T13:30:59.612354Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,True. I want you as my alies bro. Hit me up on discord @0xpareto.eth,decrease,hold,False,True,79936.06,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:20:59.309835Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"thats actually march 2nd. if your going to scam, be better",decrease,hold,False,True,18526.2828,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:33:24.501779Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,What is your favorite Kanye's song?,flip,hold,False,True,1234.8645,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:25:47.518084Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,You won¡¯t have the liquidity to sell it after the tweets about the dots,hold,decrease,False,True,1475.2229,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T21:57:07.196521Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,looks like the btcbear switched sides... I wonder if that's also BowBow,flip,hold,False,True,223.6008,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:28:13.157363Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,They are going to wait until everyone is sleeping and sell,hold,hold,True,True,4444.2472,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:30:30.683449Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm going to be happy once all of you male pink skins go extinct. White women belong to non-whites.,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-14T15:41:16.382859Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",This shit is pissing me off rn!!!,hold,decrease,False,True,8.9631,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T12:36:54.413552Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Can someone explain why the price dump?,flip,decrease,False,True,281.9998,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:10:36.315041Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nigga, according to your logic everything is 50/50",decrease,hold,False,True,834.0537,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:30:52.262667Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Love you bro, i really hope you win, but im also selfish, so we are not going to enjoy the same results. bless you tho.",increase,decrease,False,True,4.8342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:48:12.224521Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Bullishonsol, why are you selling bro? XD",hold,hold,True,True,4444.2472,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:25:32.830544Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Gambling is great, what is the problem?",flip,hold,False,True,1235.9445,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T14:32:11.504036Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I'm so sad I had no liquidity at 6 c,decrease,hold,False,True,133.695,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T15:06:06.718488Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",We won by a lot ! congrats to NO holders,increase,hold,False,True,2287.4079,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-02-02T13:49:33.342958Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,@gregorybox you are dope! Cry tears of joy you deserve it,flip,hold,False,True,992.5858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:56:24.027561Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"thats his thing he does before he releases albums, he is just getting attention, he wont and inturn im betting money on ",increase,increase,True,True,1.7352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T15:33:12.957585Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,I am a little worried that he bought 2 days agoas it lines up with his Bitcoin moonshot post on X. But chance is low and,flip,decrease,False,True,351.3334,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:46:23.138389Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I hate the delay I tried buying noes at 60 and they already cost 70,decrease,decrease,True,True,165.3834,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T19:02:10.451708Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,you would give up porn for just 318$? XD,hold,hold,True,True,247.9764,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:39:24.446235Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,guys ive sold all my YES and Im buying NO,flip,increase,False,True,2518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T13:31:51.772927Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wherefore, as by one man Zyn entered into the world, and death by Zyn; and so death passed upon all men, for that all ha",increase,hold,False,True,176672.9901,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:49:18.004091Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"the idea is that jews would have been the people behind the coin, encouraging him to launch it. his previous tweets abou",flip,increase,False,True,166.7112,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:56:03.016922Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,THIS MARKET IS AS SAFE AS INDEX FUND.... AND YET MONKEYS KEEP LOSING MONEY,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:34:49.100037Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye didn't even get to announce his own official coin before it got rugged,decrease,increase,False,True,22.0109,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:27:18.094355Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""Ye revealed that he wants to drop the project on June 15""- why don't he drop his scam crypto on the same day. Why he w",hold,decrease,False,True,4251.4838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T06:02:31.737705Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ye : I quit Twitter for now They just deleted my last tweet Jordan leaving the NBA,hold,decrease,False,True,8.57,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:03:17.226156Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,bullishonsol now is your last chance,decrease,flip,False,True,744.1756,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:18:37.014217Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You will lose your job soon after trump gets rid of the DEI programs low IQ nig,decrease,hold,False,True,4604.9024,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:54:13.665343Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,What happened for it to go like this,flip,hold,False,True,17.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-02-02T13:08:56.214784Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,Please cash your yes out and buy no.,flip,flip,True,True,205.6635,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T20:46:54.206777Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,The only thing I am missing is slide whistle sound effect.,hold,hold,True,True,86.4056,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T15:00:33.377034Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,back to 91 in 5 minutes lmaooo,flip,hold,False,True,63.704,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:26:09.605603Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,NIGGA THIS IS AS REAL LIFE AS IT GETS HOMIE,hold,hold,True,True,30336.6707,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T23:54:30.896584Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Alphax is the biggest moron i have seen in my life lol.,decrease,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T14:27:28.173489Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,I have built my position. Will be so sad if I lose,flip,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T15:34:00.302715Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"thank you for the insight, but your buy is so small and you are 30K in the hole",increase,decrease,False,True,888.08,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:37:55.602957Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i think you should buy back the Yes,increase,flip,False,True,6191.7463,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:24:04.426958Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,I have a feeling he¡¯s going to tweet soon and I¡¯ll be wrecked ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,401.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T07:34:00.836295Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,You¡¯d have be a multi millionaire to sleep on such a bag size lol,decrease,increase,False,True,3264.5238,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:36:06.223296Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,better prices for bowbow i guess,flip,hold,False,True,2271.7415,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T12:59:29.605553Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Im so Happy for you my man. I saw your text in the other market. You will make a fortune my boy!,flip,hold,False,True,1608.563,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-08T12:09:05.431583Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Maybe in his head it would look like a valuable thing that adds value to his fans?,increase,hold,False,True,3915.04,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:21:50.221348Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Love seeing top NO holders down $50-100k dont gamble on YE,decrease,decrease,True,True,19.94,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T14:16:10.805298Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"I bet top 3 holders will be buying new cars with proceeds from winning. So degen 911, else propably second hand good car",flip,hold,False,True,1897.5816,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-03T13:32:44.415403Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,yeah( I hope to sell NO at 0.50 and there buy yes. God please,increase,flip,False,True,855.26,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T21:02:42.333143Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Im still new to charting so feedback is appreciated,increase,decrease,False,True,150.4805,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T15:48:36.106505Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"can some YES dummies, oh im sorry, insiders, fill my 58c order?",increase,increase,True,True,1034.999,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T10:07:47.635908Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Some ppl dont understand that wen he posted dot chart means nothing, market resloved when he posted PURCHASE",increase,hold,False,True,318.02,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:07:50.728367Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,ur a retard. i just forgot. now share proof of the wallet which funded me and the whale. ive asked u 20 times to share i,decrease,decrease,True,True,6876.0182,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T21:37:32.789788Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Me and my little bag stand with you brother ??,hold,hold,True,True,44.15,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T00:52:16.107637Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",We should be safe for a bit longer after a drop to 94.5k,decrease,hold,False,True,43.48,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T18:13:20.331782Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,much love bowbow you crazy bastard,flip,hold,False,True,91.929,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-22T05:31:33.765666Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","BTC really just needs to break 100k, the hype will do the rest.",hold,increase,False,True,120.7114,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:49:11.857394Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,MICROSTRATEGY HAVE NEVER EVER ANNOUNCED A BUY ON A DAY WHEN US STOCK MARKET IS CLOSED,flip,increase,False,True,2518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T22:20:41.182844Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,nothing is happening hes js saying that so we buy yes,increase,flip,False,True,17.1503,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-03T14:22:18.043888Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Lol BTC at ATH but ppl think they will not buy, pure whales manipulation to enter lower. GG",hold,increase,False,True,235.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T23:33:37.951236Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,The US is not the whole world:),flip,hold,False,True,682.9308,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T06:38:15.986338Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,blah blah blah. idk who you are. shalomtrump was in the comments with everyone when the article first dropped. a real OG,decrease,hold,False,True,100.7509,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T02:03:54.352923Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Y? You guys more convinced that he will launch today than yesterday?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1824.1137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T17:52:13.892134Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"after a big dump, there must big a pump, right...?",flip,decrease,False,True,79.06,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:12:44.256652Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,People sell bitcoin so they can shop on black friday,decrease,decrease,True,True,408.6401,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:34:37.527091Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Amazing odds for yes holders here https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-100000-on-november-29/bitcoin-above-100000-,increase,flip,False,True,400.52,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:05:57.702133Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Hehe I knew he won¡¯t buy he bought 1.9b worth of BTC for a reason last week,hold,increase,False,True,3827.7687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:49:14.460409Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Here we go, Y top holders are quitting",increase,decrease,False,True,385.3936,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T15:14:45.596909Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Fat finger order haha realised it bit late that I sold instead of buy,increase,decrease,False,True,200.1034,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:05:44.847213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"swastikcoin is fucked up, it¡¯s gonna damage Binance as well",hold,increase,False,True,3350.5145,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T01:08:10.035968Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"we already know they technically can. but they never have and if you look at 20 jan, they waited a day",flip,hold,False,True,3518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T15:58:50.572926Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,No artist at Kanye s level released a coin. Kanye always wanted to be above everyone. He might create an exchange which ,hold,hold,True,True,4264.0838,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T21:01:17.379603Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Everybody get ready to pump bitcoin tomorrow, apes together strong #PUMPBITCOIN",increase,increase,True,True,101.7085,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:43:51.708617Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"https://x.com/pixonchain/status/1893431206378680539?s=46&t=mzxsY0d7dVkxw4gf9Y-PQw So this is a ""No"". A person buying kan",increase,increase,True,True,324.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T12:34:28.168943Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Under most circumstances, I agree with you, but do you really think he is behind the actually coin creation? Its more li",hold,decrease,False,True,4116.9017,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:03:51.413433Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"if u bought at 16c and sold now, thats a 2x. No reason to play the actual market bet (whether btc hits 100k) when u can",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T01:24:19.624332Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bowbow still continuing to dump bags lol,hold,increase,False,True,630.5406,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:50:32.169965Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"hes unstoppable, hes going for the 2M",hold,flip,False,True,2058.6286,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T07:38:33.926804Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,i just bought hella NO shares lol,increase,increase,True,True,90.31,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T16:30:08.588061Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't underestimate the other guys greed,hold,hold,True,True,358.86,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:48:56.261896Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Already loaded heavy buck on $YZY gonna buy a lambo after the launch,increase,increase,True,True,1130.4363,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T21:07:21.599613Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Holy shit some moron put 400k on yes and is down over 200k,increase,hold,False,True,134.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T09:19:03.507743Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"He hasn't announced when he will buy yet though, that's the thing. We have an entire trading day to see, starting in a f",hold,decrease,False,True,165.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:10:30.244428Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yes Ye, keep talking about lauren pisciotta for a few more days",flip,hold,False,True,149.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T20:38:25.599362Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"geniuses are often rejected by society, I'm with you",hold,hold,True,True,7235.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T14:12:07.158732Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"what do you mean, it hedged perfectly. Down $5k here, up $5k over there.",flip,decrease,False,True,4875.7871,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-07T11:25:04.479844Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,Im new here... first trade!.... Is this really that simple? I vote no amd if i win my 14 dollar is 181? Whats the catch.,increase,decrease,False,True,12.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T13:49:31.801142Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",ahahahh thank you for your insights,hold,hold,True,True,8937.0661,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T14:10:15.548466Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Its crazy that there is literally like no time left ant you can still get free 9%,increase,increase,True,True,890.345,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T13:47:41.882207Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Bro you telling me he¡¯s too dumb to know that he can¡¯t make money here ?,hold,decrease,False,True,2029.1785,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T15:01:06.387571Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bye bye 100k$ see you next year,hold,increase,False,True,196.1205,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:41:08.403756Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"He was up 500k on this bet, now he is breakeven ??",flip,decrease,False,True,4005.6902,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T08:47:42.980609Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,current market showed he is dumb as pinokio. Instead of passivly buying NOs at 10-20 range he raged and bought everythin,increase,decrease,False,True,5463.563,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:36:27.230037Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Gonna take a nap guys, could wake up $15 poorer we will see, very exciting.",decrease,decrease,True,True,22.0109,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-17T08:32:37.244534Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,me by accident. how can i switch my NO to Yes without losing money??,hold,flip,False,True,3611.34,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:21:58.239584Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"they only thing I regret is buying no at 80c, not 50c. We won't see 100k in the 38 hours anyway.",flip,increase,False,True,7716.2955,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:59:13.093573Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bowbow with 2.222.222 shares, I think he has lost it chat...",flip,decrease,False,True,2271.7461,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:05:17.205806Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"nice story, especially when you consider that BTC ATH is 99.588 ??",flip,flip,True,True,2271.7461,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:01:58.237769Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wait whats ETH, wait whats SOL. Yeah bro is for sure gonna launch¡­not",hold,flip,False,True,5320.89,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-17T04:26:52.734559Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"they posted this morning, it's YES. You should your NO shares asap before YES goes above 90% https://londoninsider.co.uk",flip,increase,False,True,22.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T12:35:32.255441Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,i knew this time felt weird lol,flip,decrease,False,True,634.37,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:47:57.984432Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Community college about to go hard,flip,hold,False,True,1231.5515,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T06:15:50.132956Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You do realize that there could be 1 million of other stuff that Kanye could be doing, right? This isn't a binary option",increase,increase,True,True,2904.6644,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:56:06.431446Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,would¡¯ve loved to hear what he has to say,decrease,hold,False,True,923.27,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T15:18:53.357738Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It's always darkest before the dawn.,hold,hold,True,True,875.29,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:05:13.289248Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Hold on he's dropping rn, just closing all porn tabs in browser",hold,decrease,False,True,435.3285,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:20:48.684436Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,circus buying yes... you know what that means,flip,decrease,False,True,2141.5264,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:42:28.868005Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow is going to be homeless stop praising him ??,decrease,hold,False,True,165.3834,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T21:46:48.140777Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"As of February 9, 2025, MicroStrategy has not announced any Bitcoin purchases between February 4 and February 10. The co",increase,increase,True,True,11.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:57:10.528036Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"next week you will be talking to a super hot girl. do you really want to tell her that you held ""yes"" on the kanye memec",flip,decrease,False,True,166.7112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:26:45.658776Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bow bow replied to tis saying please dont mislead i wont talk to anymore,increase,hold,False,True,17.1503,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-04T14:09:29.502847Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,you should be happy Chigah dodge a bullet for you,decrease,decrease,True,True,7155.2919,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T09:16:39.748096Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,kanye is very unpredictable. Betting on him is like betting on horses or playing the roulette. But at least he said he w,hold,decrease,False,True,374.4024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:44:38.211326Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,it literally is not my account. idk when you will understand this pro.,flip,hold,False,True,2518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:07:28.176354Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"ye is back to random antisemetic ramblings. he does not care about a memecoin. nobros, we won",flip,increase,False,True,166.7112,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T12:53:11.669315Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Fair enough. However, trading STRK does not mean they will announce a buy. I guess we will find out in about an hour or ",flip,hold,False,True,714.7339,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:56:00.405271Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,He lost a bit on 29th Nov bets.. just sayin,flip,decrease,False,True,1066.08,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:33:23.245465Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,im homeless and need to feed my kids look at me in my profile pic! donate me to feed my gambling addiction and to permin,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T11:23:16.097669Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,kanye said coin is real hes preparing,hold,increase,False,True,82.4724,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T14:47:11.687367Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29 IS LITERALLY AT 72% NO, YALL NO IS STILL CHEAP ON THIS LMAO",flip,increase,False,True,38.1071,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T08:08:23.590558Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You could buy it at 10c or less,hold,increase,False,True,32.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T06:47:45.218436Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can someone make a market for March ? Need to make it back,flip,decrease,False,True,4028.2222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:56:02.045538Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,imagine explaining this market to benjamin franklin,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:09:07.521668Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Did I do right by taking NO. It¡¯s my third bet on this website and big one ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,950.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:53:25.619451Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,https://x.com/lokithebird/status/1893405895540809853 there's decent rumors with sources that kanye has sold his twitter ,decrease,hold,False,True,668.9088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:46:19.503971Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,nah bro i wanted to buy but now i realised im wrong.,flip,flip,True,True,2518.6,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T01:57:54.961213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"THE VIDEO IS AN OBVIOUS DEEPFAKE, LOOK HOW HIS FACE MOVES",decrease,increase,False,True,3523.2708,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:14:53.082172Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,imagine we go sleep and it hits 100k,increase,decrease,False,True,69.7709,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:04:31.842298Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,we did it aenews. i never doubted you,flip,increase,False,True,166.7112,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:28:53.990463Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,See you back at 20c for Yes in 1 hour ??,flip,flip,True,True,4005.6902,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T10:51:17.505216Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The chart is showing what it should. But hold steady lads, swings will come and go up and down like kanye¡¯s mood. Brace",hold,hold,True,True,8430.1899,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:21:19.342356Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,and will smith... he hates will smith,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T17:11:34.374414Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,trolling? Or did you actually put your entire net worth on kanye not launching a meme coin,flip,decrease,False,True,123.9,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T11:42:20.901526Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"WTF bigger holders on YES with 50K Just did this bet and registered this month, manipulated?",increase,decrease,False,True,39.78,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:27:11.736946Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,you just gave me definitive PROOF that you and Guwop are the same person. #EXPOSED,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T12:14:54.243378Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,What's the relationship between post and the purchase????,flip,decrease,False,True,350.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:54:53.087451Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,his PNL is only good because when he buys the price is going up. but if he tries to sell he will lose more than 60%,flip,decrease,False,True,2518.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T12:19:01.356376Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,(: I hope you doing fine bro .,decrease,hold,False,True,4220.3061,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T14:28:34.793476Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He's down 100k, he bought tons of no's then sold them when the price went up, then he bought yes at the top and lost aga",hold,decrease,False,True,3526.0437,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T21:51:28.172389Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,not a good payout so no but yes holders been saying wait till tmr big day tmr and stuff like that for like 4 days straig,increase,increase,True,True,17.1503,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T12:32:50.286653Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It went up $500 and yes holders starting stroking it,decrease,flip,False,True,1232.7083,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:56.599679Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,very weak buy hands on BTC chart,hold,decrease,False,True,171.3146,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T05:24:29.502753Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Wishing you love and happiness today and always!,decrease,hold,False,True,8374.068,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T13:50:32.086303Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Look at that volume on BTCUSDT :O,decrease,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T15:17:16.367729Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I voted ""NO"", got profit and pulled out. And then I voted YES on 38% mark because of pump. Now I am on 95% loss XD",increase,decrease,False,True,121.3146,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T20:26:09.130011Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye camp¡­ I see what you did there,hold,hold,True,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T12:56:12.923351Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"finger on the button, if that dot chart comes out i'm flipping so fast you'll think i've been holding YES the entire tim",increase,flip,False,True,25024.2139,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T21:28:56.492366Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,if he pulls it off in time i'll rename my kid 0x0A39f55aE14384,decrease,hold,False,True,16286.2937,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:44:12.799697Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,hanging from a tree is so calming ??,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T15:07:34.073914Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yea i mean we saw some of the Y users sell at each of these pumps,increase,hold,False,True,5981.1562,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T08:22:08.613941Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,So I was away drinking last night. What happened to the yes whale exactly?,increase,hold,False,True,18.7979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T17:32:25.058132Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I don't know what happened, but buy $5 for fun",hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T00:00:36.488367Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,insiders like me know its being launched on Monday,increase,increase,True,True,241.4275,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T01:38:12.111149Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I¡¯ll save you the trouble. It pumps in the middle of the fucking night,increase,increase,True,True,144.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:03:37.951954Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,cmon bro i am trying to pump our shares,flip,decrease,False,True,145.9346,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T15:50:55.230823Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Head & Shoulders forming. Bullrun is over.,increase,increase,True,True,717.5225,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T13:48:13.695601Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Never bet against bullishonsol, this mf is the oracle of our days -Thanks to him, I became the negative richest in my cl",increase,hold,False,True,1034.999,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T14:35:24.123082Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",I think 95k is possible but 105k probably at the end of the year,decrease,decrease,True,True,1181.6032,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-02-02T12:12:52.834334Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,Please buy more YES for no to be cheaper so i can buy more of it,increase,decrease,False,True,200.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T16:26:19.312884Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",exactly. You have to be awake 24/7,hold,decrease,False,True,300.3198,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T15:29:05.915888Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,read rules they are not the same,hold,hold,True,True,18.8989,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T01:17:07.531762Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Supposedly, @barkmeta who bought the posting rights of Kanye's X account launched the Yeezy coin and rug pulled it. He p",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-08T12:37:23.752584Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,"Same here, my instinct also says no, don¡¯t know but feels that they will acquire btc on 10 not tomorrow",hold,hold,True,True,1.56,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:55:36.612169Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,There isn¡¯t enough capital in this market for him to dump tbh,increase,hold,False,True,73.5393,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T12:00:42.226381Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If many fans lose a lot of money buying this token, they will no longer like kanye.",decrease,decrease,True,True,17927.37,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T10:59:10.464226Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,5 hours and there will be the verdict,increase,hold,False,True,1380.3566,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T17:21:16.781554Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,tomorrow 95k support and pusing 97k-98k again,flip,increase,False,True,2299.3251,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:07:42.834844Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,He got heaps on the 29th as well.. that guy is a beat!!!,decrease,hold,False,True,2201.2848,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T23:21:26.715963Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,put your money where your mouth is and tip me those 30 euros,hold,hold,True,True,1774.37,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T18:40:04.322097Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"The scariest part of this is when Saylor tweets that Saylor Tracker chart. He normally does that, and the following day,",increase,decrease,False,True,9.43,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:58:29.094303Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i would recommend against betting your life savings in this extremely volatile market,flip,decrease,False,True,1.05,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:38:14.452082Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Good price to buy Yes, it's been at 70c for hours. Finally a good chance to get in cheap. Might be the final chance",decrease,increase,False,True,444.4491,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T10:32:09.009387Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Are you sure? Is my last money and i don t want to lose them,hold,decrease,False,True,438.048,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T18:26:46.860131Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Guys ,its not happening at least today. We can go back to our daily lifes",hold,increase,False,True,4264.0838,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:22:50.013575Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Its fully developed, we saw the flowcharts yesterday",decrease,increase,False,True,54.5038,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-07T07:56:54.212477Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"This markets player relies too much on Hope and luck. there is no edge, only insiders can win from this consistently.",decrease,decrease,True,True,655.12,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:34:56.802197Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"as the saying goes, ""Buy high, sell low""",decrease,decrease,True,True,40.4974,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-15T14:39:24.891606Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"Why do you keep buying, are you so sure?",hold,increase,False,True,529.1775,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T15:49:42.392906Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This is not ever yet, lets see what he tweets today",hold,hold,True,True,5533.7285,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T13:20:04.960951Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"That's hilarious, who are the bot accounts?",hold,hold,True,True,1.61,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T13:50:13.585138Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"People judging the market of a Sunday market movement when there¡¯s literally a whole trading week left, last week it wa",flip,increase,False,True,194.5643,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T19:38:38.703992Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,we'll never forget the name bowbow lmao,increase,hold,False,True,256.4805,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:39:14.365317Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"who else blindly bets when they see the Saylor dot chart and then reads his comment afterwards, hoping he hasn't said so",increase,hold,False,True,25024.2139,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T20:26:42.653971Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"In the case though it goes to 0 on monday most likely no will pump before that happens, which will be a nice exit for a ",decrease,decrease,True,True,4.0109,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:23:25.936252Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,wait why did he sell and how do we know he is for sure,increase,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T21:40:45.785996Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"i'm just trying to keep warm after burning that 6 grand. The flames are big, i might get some marshmellows.",decrease,decrease,True,True,16286.2937,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-13T13:24:57.588157Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,so many newbies. man i feel bad.,decrease,decrease,True,True,464.84,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:34:41.484506Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I think this Bark guy lost his chance (after ye unfollowed him) to rug yesterday and will be trying today. They discusse,flip,decrease,False,True,194.3236,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:41:44.779287Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Been here 2 months this comment section is the best so far haha,flip,hold,False,True,595.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T03:41:21.936566Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wait if bullishonsol was an ""insider"" and he wants to sell... NO TO THE MOON lol",increase,decrease,False,True,11101.4595,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:34:15.811993Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"So why are we dropping back? Almost none of the original insiders are buying more Y, and a fair number have dumped their",hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:49:38.896772Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,when are u gonna understand i am not that nigga?,flip,decrease,False,True,2518.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:05:58.954672Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Still not changing opinion to sell your NO? When will you at 10 cents?,decrease,increase,False,True,6222.4612,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:27:37.355022Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"White men get the good looking women, blacks get the ugly leftovers that nobody wants",decrease,hold,False,True,2434.786,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T02:33:44.360089Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bow Bow listen... when this is done seek gambling addiction therapy; we all love you...,increase,decrease,False,True,8828.6493,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T12:57:42.837401Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,should I increase my No position?,increase,decrease,False,True,131.47,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:21:33.594789Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It will approach and be rejected 100k at least one more before breaking,increase,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T12:27:14.947722Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,The question is why they didn't buy no at 90%yes to make 10x profit. Rather than only took 2x profit bought at 50%,hold,decrease,False,True,10.197,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:49:30.874988Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Is it over or did it just never begin,increase,decrease,False,True,77.2106,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:49:47.582439Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"So BowBow just donating his money whats all,quastion is will btcbear will donate too ?",decrease,hold,False,True,1801.4536,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:20:43.226032Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,we broke the 98.5 this could be gooddddd,flip,increase,False,True,60.387,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T23:33:16.412873Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"MicroStrategy can announce a Bitcoin (BTC) purchase on a U.S. federal holiday, even though the SEC's EDGAR system is clo",hold,hold,True,True,352.13,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:29:59.568854Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,bitches aint got punch line OR flow,flip,hold,False,True,103.46,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:06:10.545188Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"love you mate, you did the right thing, too much risk is not good for anyone",flip,decrease,False,True,1426.87,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:32:23.663938Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,GUYS SPV = SPECIAL PURPOSE VENTURE WE ARE COOKED WE ARE COOKED,flip,flip,True,True,166.7112,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T22:17:27.365294Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nope, I was specifically referring to his load. Like if he spurts or if it leaks out in a dribble",hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T12:09:35.308434Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,you cant call it casino if its not allowing you to cash out,increase,hold,False,True,2.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T05:45:49.196586Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",deposit more and buy yes 105k bro. we got this,hold,increase,False,True,17950.954,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T18:26:49.075634Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I saw. ""No"" path is clear all the way to 100. Unless Kanye show up in X & a sign of market recovery. They want a sign o",decrease,decrease,True,True,4264.0838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:33:53.359608Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,HERE COMES THE PULLBACK WE ARE GOING TO ZEROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo,increase,flip,False,True,4.8342,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T13:23:54.595644Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,you seem to have forgotten him,decrease,flip,False,True,12715.8105,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:42:35.017953Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I think I will just go to sleep,can't understand whats happening really",decrease,decrease,True,True,1801.4536,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:52:47.840451Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,So they yes guys including me might be cooked xD,hold,decrease,False,True,3.84,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T14:36:59.743239Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,*SEC LAUNCHES CYBER AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES UNIT. *SEC CYBER UNIT WILL COMBAT FRAUD IN CRYPTO AMONG OTHER AREAS,increase,decrease,False,True,2999.8963,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:01:39.344333Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,when was last time that he did not bought near ATH ? NEVER...,flip,increase,False,True,2029.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T19:42:38.949253Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The bullishonsol account exists to create doubt and confuse people so they flip from yes to no,increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:30:21.675873Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,ive been trading for quite a bit,increase,hold,False,True,38.9803,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T14:35:43.518784Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Did anybody really believe it would continue to fail at the 90k barrier until end of November with all that momentum! Th,decrease,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T16:39:29.534189Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,if I was I wouldn't Risk this much money and he can still announce btc purchase via a press release,increase,decrease,False,True,5069.0843,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T15:31:25.594075Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"I bet @Degen12 he has balls to buy at 99.9, since he knows that it would be a WIN.",flip,increase,False,True,499.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:48:19.260551Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,how did i scam? do you still think i am the other whale lol?,flip,hold,False,True,2518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:38:00.291902Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,WARNING!!!! STAY OUT OF THIS MARKET!!! WARNING TO ALL PEOPLE CONSIDERING BUYING NO: STOP!!! INSIDERS ARE CASHING IN ON B,hold,decrease,False,True,72.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T21:58:49.783458Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Turns out BowBow was in fact human and also just retarded,flip,hold,False,True,707.4441,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-31T19:45:27.319452Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",someone please sell me YES shares for 110k at .01...I feel something in my balls...could the the clap...but i feel somet,hold,increase,False,True,869.2369,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T12:56:47.075274Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"but he didn't buy any bitcoin so i can relax anyway, i'm not nervous.",increase,hold,False,True,25024.2139,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T16:23:31.409038Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"this is my first time making money on my bets, usually i loose everything betting on sport teams that i don¡¯t know abou",decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T04:17:33.574686Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes we know this but on veteran day the stock market was open, but today - like jan 20 - the stock market is closed so h",flip,increase,False,True,2834.9686,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:39:45.742503Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think u made the right play tbh,increase,hold,False,True,38.9801,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T22:07:20.815025Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,there is one already basically,increase,decrease,False,True,77.2106,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:19:09.128499Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,but 4% to reach 100k is far different from 4% to reach 96k,hold,hold,True,True,135.61,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:24:41.678068Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I will liquidate my home and put it on the line against @BawBaw,hold,increase,False,True,6137.3629,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:55:45.819508Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,All The Best Both Yes & No Holders ??????,decrease,hold,False,True,632404.2006,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T23:33:48.490842Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,actually whats your source for this? i dont see any news about him buying on 3 september.,flip,decrease,False,True,3518.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T12:03:43.529789Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,I Don¡¯t understand why this price?,hold,decrease,False,True,7.93,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:43:24.853806Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"0x7dDEAa9BaFcE3... sold 72,654 Yes at 62.7",increase,decrease,False,True,121.7912,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T19:22:47.995052Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah I don¡¯t doubt it, but that¡¯s the reason the 500k market isn¡¯t at 99c rn",increase,hold,False,True,402.31,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T08:31:01.453307Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he is right. listen to him. keep buying yes,increase,flip,False,True,2904.6644,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:16:22.417469Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,whales buying no and cashing out on yes this might be my fucking lottery ticket,decrease,decrease,True,True,759.75,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:37:02.314643Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"the time difference does not matter, last day of this month is literally saturday, its not hitting 100k on weekend no sh",decrease,increase,False,True,126.8979,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T01:16:24.370725Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The insider whales haven't sold yet... Is it scheduled to be released?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1893.2991,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-07T10:51:34.544265Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Remember someone held up price in range of 82-83 when stocks were crashing ; most likely Saylor was involved too :),decrease,increase,False,True,448.64,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T22:46:47.478497Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I sold most of my no just keeping some no for now and yeah im gonna buy in on yes soon not yet tho,decrease,decrease,True,True,4.3097,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:29:54.925343Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Do you know what ""global"" means you Neanderthal?",hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T15:48:12.412872Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Except bullishonsol did sell some of his shares at 71c,hold,decrease,False,True,5533.7285,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T12:41:12.589537Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"plus black friday is coming up, typically people sell before holiday shopping starts",increase,hold,False,True,1962.22,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-13T12:24:42.707172Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,GG to No holders ... im cooked,decrease,flip,False,True,143.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T21:02:10.410814Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"All the more pagers for me, keep the shekels coming goyim",increase,hold,False,True,351.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:42:28.100743Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yep, fact is that it will probably hit 100k within the next 2-3 weeks. However time is against yes holders. facts",hold,flip,False,True,632.2521,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T07:40:42.993403Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,farr out i love yes holders keep buying u guys doing great,increase,flip,False,True,22.865,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T17:36:00.109487Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Guys Don¡¯t get Scammed by Scammers, If someone says they know me or spoke to me and all, Be careful, All the Best for B",increase,hold,False,True,487395.2835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T14:00:02.204598Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,did they announce to buy? why yes bet reach 97,hold,flip,False,True,201.6833,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T23:40:46.969273Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,hope is fading. time will always tell. No is strong,decrease,increase,False,True,184.3496,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-20T14:20:54.139098Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"That's just your opinion, if you don't like this website, just don't read it but many people like me think it's an inter",decrease,hold,False,True,7489.6438,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T12:22:18.645036Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"If Saylor or micro strategy dont anounce , you will all loose",hold,decrease,False,True,248.5677,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:42:49.240073Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ill have to reconnect with nature after this shit resolves,decrease,hold,False,True,276.9108,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:58:02.039199Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,NO Buyers are scared pussies and no one filled my order for $40k YES. Im gonna cancel my order now. useless market with ,decrease,decrease,True,True,8215.8427,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T22:56:10.303511Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,where are you seeing a post about a coin bro,hold,hold,True,True,12247.56,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:26:53.619789Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,that guy who mailed coin desk is indian.. so obviously its a scam,decrease,increase,False,True,59.55,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T17:37:38.323215Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"what price today do you think would be the ""tipping point""? 98k? 99k? that gets us to a panic 85c YES?",hold,increase,False,True,264.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:19:38.600761Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,this is the greatest market the world has ever seen,flip,increase,False,True,166.7112,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T12:16:21.832023Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bro i love scones. Great breakfast call,increase,hold,False,True,716.6325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:38:26.582906Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,why is Ye not tweeting about the coin ???,decrease,decrease,True,True,76.55,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-11T10:00:25.993547Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,i wonder if he's still naming his kids after us?,decrease,hold,False,True,16286.2937,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T07:09:20.348575Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,that's your limit order ? of 13k on 35c,decrease,hold,False,True,5123.5971,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T18:20:33.866985Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I had absolutely no idea what I was doing here but my $100 turned into $200, so thanks for that",hold,decrease,False,True,19.3029,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T18:00:31.098413Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I will tip him 1 dollar once no wins he is fine,decrease,hold,False,True,70.34,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T07:30:03.324281Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"like yeah i get the insiders ""buying"" but if they knew that it'll launch wouldnt it make more sense to buy the coin?",increase,hold,False,True,574.1631,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:45:35.974859Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"everything will be ok bro, do not panic",hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:35:22.844818Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,some degen stuff bro wth is it look like?,increase,decrease,False,True,4.8342,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T13:27:38.155995Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,im just in dept with school fees and hoping for a better life....,increase,decrease,False,True,65.37,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T08:22:08.613941Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,So I was away drinking last night. What happened to the yes whale exactly?,increase,hold,False,True,18.7979,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T21:34:33.354694Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,his teachers are going to have a hard time with that,decrease,hold,False,True,8051.9992,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:46:07.507225Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye would for sure contact coindesk before launch¡­use your brain fellas,increase,hold,False,True,2643.84,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:06:00.911414Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,people think Saylor is done buying because he said he would focus more on Convertible Notes rather than the ATM,flip,decrease,False,True,7283.2744,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:47:38.427888Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Shit up old fart can't u see he is buying the dip,increase,hold,False,True,15.3772,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T03:33:32.094648Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i¡¯ve reported his account. we¡¯ve lost the battle not the war,decrease,decrease,True,True,431.1123,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:12:52.429122Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,did you really got tricked but scum coin or what,increase,decrease,False,True,53.11,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-02T18:05:05.591018Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Lol, @itsAlureon has more than 70k shares. So risky",hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T21:33:24.687772Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"ight boys, we gotta get past that wall at 49. lets ride",decrease,increase,False,True,11329.2288,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:15:29.222654Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,nice time to buy some more NOs,increase,increase,True,True,1518.97,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-07T12:04:27.451305Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,To the yes holders :- never buy overpriced yes or no .. last week market sentiment was hella bad so it was very obvious ,decrease,increase,False,True,3827.7687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T13:02:09.581478Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"holy fuck, I have the CA, message me for details",hold,increase,False,True,1950.35,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:30:12.611425Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BowBow should have taken the bag when you had the chance,flip,decrease,False,True,4005.6902,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:41:41.880032Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","The is risk to reward is crazy, that¡¯s why I bought in",decrease,increase,False,True,213.3624,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T03:48:01.218264Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Morning everybody. Well I guess today is the bigday only got in 4-5hourish of bad sleep, but it's the long haul today.",decrease,hold,False,True,86.4025,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T06:22:05.256472Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Why do people play slots or let alone gamble at a casino? its a losing proposition and yet you have millions of ppl that,increase,hold,False,True,2904.6644,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T17:49:59.706423Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,i was thinking an early completion post pre market means they're moving fast and will probably have funds settled and re,hold,decrease,False,True,2603.4009,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:46:44.811724Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i said i changed my mind after doing more research.,flip,flip,True,True,2518.6,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T20:27:46.490375Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,KANYE A NGR BABBOON COTTON PICKER,hold,flip,False,True,38849.9344,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T14:59:14.673809Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1941873410700714411 Sending btc to coinbase to offset sayor buying,flip,decrease,False,True,499.3279,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T05:51:23.284064Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Im sorry for your loss.. i feel your pain im down too,decrease,decrease,True,True,1001.33,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-18T13:04:35.547946Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,On Monday US market working thats a work day.,flip,hold,False,True,54.8685,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T05:06:28.335036Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I sold most of my stocks at a loss, but luckily I didn't lose money.",decrease,decrease,True,True,8374.068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T18:31:33.030506Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,His name will be carved into the polymarket's abundance of legends,increase,hold,False,True,1846.0942,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T03:36:03.525435Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Hedge funds give their left nut to make 9% a year and you can make 1% in 3 hours,increase,increase,True,True,2.55,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T15:32:52.914794Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Tried to time the Friday market and lost all my capital.. slowly building back up now,flip,decrease,False,True,184.4696,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:44:29.832211Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sooo BowBow brought and sold on https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-100000-on-november-29/bitcoin-above-100000-on,flip,hold,False,True,1066.08,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:10:54.955514Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"i think he's turned the ATM back on, i'll have to reread his post from today.",flip,hold,False,True,7283.2744,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T19:56:03.021336Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,EVERYBODY PLS REPORT THE LINK BELOW IT'S A SCA,increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:32:41.082797Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Epic battle can start bitcoin vs the clock,increase,hold,False,True,14366.748,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T22:17:42.198186Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i gotta catch a flight. dont do anything retarded while im gone people.....,hold,decrease,False,True,3518.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T22:45:17.394919Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,What are everyone's thoughts on December? Got more riding there unfortunately...wish everything was here,hold,decrease,False,True,52.65,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T10:57:10.461939Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Why when i try to cashout it wants to cashout at 3c when its at 23c,increase,hold,False,True,618.46,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:32:12.418424Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,HAHAHAHA Easiest money I have ever made,flip,increase,False,True,4005.6902,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:58:55.109334Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,t minus 2 minutes until yesbros rekt for the last time,flip,flip,True,True,166.7112,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T20:57:43.568228Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yes holders be acting like a cult the way they buy 200k shares and don't say a word,decrease,hold,False,True,276.9108,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T19:06:04.296422Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Like if you like free money :P,hold,hold,True,True,5000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T00:25:14.848708Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"100% no launch tonight based on his tweets. Also he will go to sleep soon, meaning NO will gradually go up only througho",hold,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T23:54:10.715798Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"im not white im mixed, but my pfp was created when I used to look more non white (4 years ago). U might be able to find ",increase,hold,False,True,241.4275,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T12:21:47.879166Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"theres simply not a way for bitcoin to go above 100k in the next 5 days, huge selloff wall before it :o",flip,increase,False,True,38.1071,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-16T23:11:25.260591Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,seems like this week there are no buyers... 57k sell vs 4.6k buy. BIG diffrence.,hold,decrease,False,True,1938.229,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T18:21:29.463078Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,if you dont believe in TA you must believe in vibes. and vibes in crypto world are shit right now. they wont build back ,increase,increase,True,True,26.3331,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T01:30:15.802263Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","only gamble what youre willing to lose, i only put $15 in for fun on this position just cause of the crazy odds",decrease,hold,False,True,43.48,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:26:54.366079Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Lol still buying 'yes' eh.... GO FOR BROKE,decrease,increase,False,True,834.0537,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T09:05:01.002384Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"it's not about him stopping buying BTC, it's about him *announcing* he has bought BTC *today* when *tomorrow* he unlocks",hold,flip,False,True,2135.79,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:53:51.606488Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,podgies read the article probably you retard they said it's possible it will be no on monday https://londoninsider.co.uk,flip,decrease,False,True,2518.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T07:12:59.313663Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,because it gives his company a push for the wall street,decrease,hold,False,True,208204.1122,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T02:36:50.789506Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,How mnay times have the yes odds been this low?,hold,decrease,False,True,101.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T12:18:06.297705Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,They announced pricing of Strike Preferred Stock Offering and there are no news from MSTR that the sale of stocks is fin,flip,increase,False,True,714.7339,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T16:17:02.646562Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,not tryna create any fud here but just fyi he can still announce btc purchase on Monday via press release on strategy an,increase,hold,False,True,5069.0843,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:20:45.734367Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Done merging my shares, ignore the trades",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T18:42:43.855725Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i guess it's not gonna just go FULL STONKS suddenly when so many people talk about the psychological effect of the 100k ,increase,increase,True,True,183.8664,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T17:09:01.845894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,we¡¯re all eating thx to this one,increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:55:19.701969Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i'm also gay and retarded and trans,flip,hold,False,True,121.3592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:17:25.994215Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"$YZY coming in Friday at 9pm ET, you heard it here first",decrease,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T22:57:25.039959Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,no reason to be nervous or panic only reason yes even has 21C value is cuz of bowbow,increase,increase,True,True,17.1503,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T13:06:53.069957Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Uzbekistan is already pumping it to 98.5,flip,increase,False,True,194.5643,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:06:49.513028Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"yeah but thats easier to predict than the odds on btc hitting 100k, its easier to spot a local 2hr trend then what the m",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:39:12.531046Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,i can hear Saylor using the ATM selling shares and buying more bitcoin right now.,flip,increase,False,True,6772.0572,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T15:08:29.185686Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","At the presidential bets, you were able to even though I wasn¡¯t under 1c. I think it¡¯s beacuse there¡¯s not enough liq",decrease,hold,False,True,1181.6032,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:13:21.510412Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I am definitely donating it all,decrease,hold,False,True,104056.5858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:14:16.834289Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"a long time, so buy here while you can https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-100000-on-november-29/bitcoin-above-10",increase,increase,True,True,400.52,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T14:26:45.859473Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,We probably live in a simulation anyway,hold,hold,True,True,969.0409,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-26T14:28:54.833525Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"As a $MSTR holder, is there a way to hedge my stock with this Market? Is him buying / not buying bullish or bearish for ",flip,decrease,False,True,20.8595,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T19:18:00.063093Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Who said it's morning now for me? haha its like 8pm now,hold,hold,True,True,808.7336,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-25T13:03:48.251189Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,damn what's gonna happen this week,increase,decrease,False,True,22.9977,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T11:17:41.758735Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Guys, don't you sometimes just want money fast?",decrease,decrease,True,True,369.4004,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-07T13:50:07.476111Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,I feel bad for MSTRK though man had good pnl,decrease,hold,False,True,3827.7687,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T16:50:49.671341Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,What if Kanye had become Kan instead of Ye ??,increase,hold,False,True,716.6325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T06:43:24.148456Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Which scam? You're literally using the blockchain to bet,hold,hold,True,True,1760.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T14:21:14.112839Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,maybe go through 100000 in few hours?,increase,increase,True,True,11.3285,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:13:29.077004Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,he offset the entire market by 10-15%,flip,hold,False,True,2271.7461,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T05:12:38.714538Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,im telling y'all these things are much more lengthy than you think,increase,hold,False,True,44.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:39:11.505436Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i sold 69k of my no shares until end of year, kind of regret it now",increase,decrease,False,True,14366.748,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:15:44.106633Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I've been scared to death for three days, it's your turn ""no""",hold,decrease,False,True,770.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:26:35.319839Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,it is interesting seeing sunk cost fallacy in real time I did not expect this and sold at 10c rip,flip,decrease,False,True,6748.1674,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T07:16:10.953034Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"the finance median talk more about it, attracts new investors",decrease,flip,False,True,208204.1122,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-02T04:41:06.502111Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",bro don't ask what I was thinking lmao im genuinely retarded,hold,decrease,False,True,33.1,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T08:47:13.168621Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I don't care, I am here for entertainment",flip,hold,False,True,2891.1667,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T13:05:37.056801Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"We won BY A LOT ! the market is scared, it's impossible that 100k hit in 4 days.",decrease,increase,False,True,3922.6508,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:43:42.761772Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I am been where you are right now... Trust me your in for rough night if you think about sleeping.,flip,decrease,False,True,86.4096,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:59:05.672703Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,poor bowbow gonna lose over half a million dollars for nothing,increase,decrease,False,True,497.3506,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T14:45:36.903523Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are absolutely correct. If Bullishonsole hadn't bought $2,000+ yesterday, I would still be holding my 6K+ no shares.",flip,hold,False,True,10.8614,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T23:30:54.104789Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Hourly candle is looking slim ??,hold,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T20:29:41.630374Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"guys, stand down, my man on kanye's team said they were disappointed that someone leaked the coin launch info. Remember ",hold,decrease,False,True,7235.835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:46:38.609391Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i am going all in on this one with the yes team !,increase,flip,False,True,400.52,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:26:36.956305Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ZYN GETTING FUCKED ON BOTH SIDES,decrease,decrease,True,True,363.1568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T11:49:58.178571Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"I'm not saying it will 100% happen, regardles its an +EV bet",hold,hold,True,True,34.315,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T07:00:20.088441Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"How is this 2%, and who tf are people buying yes shares with 20hours left while market is on saturday and going down and",hold,increase,False,True,27503.848,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T22:06:33.438357Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,obviously i dont know jack shit and time decay is not in yes favor but i think timing the market is doable,decrease,decrease,True,True,62.4262,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T22:19:15.986146Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I just couldn't believe that aenews2 sold all its ""no""s and bought ""yes""",increase,increase,True,True,34.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T17:45:57.956994Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Well personally it was just a value bet. He def could purchase by Monday, but getting 7x my money for any slight error o",increase,decrease,False,True,402.31,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T15:30:24.239601Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Intended to buy, but sold accidentally.",increase,decrease,False,True,221.4559,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T19:53:42.045003Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,he should do that right now so i can get out of this dumb market lol,decrease,decrease,True,True,3510.0284,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T12:18:37.248177Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You have to edge the No shares and not blow your load. It takes practice g,hold,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T22:43:23.748383Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,lol i mean its just not worth the extra cash at this point. But hella respect to you for holding throughout the lows. Go,decrease,decrease,True,True,4068.6382,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T06:21:10.472151Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Its still night time. And business hour start in the morning. So we should not hear any info until 4 hours,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:33:53.098961Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Fuck you kanye, you destroyed my mental health",hold,hold,True,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T22:01:34.704088Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I've just called Sam Kessler and he confirmed this,decrease,increase,False,True,1204.6272,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T11:48:34.414125Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,You can see the purchases here,decrease,hold,False,True,342.1594,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T08:31:30.986272Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Conclusion: While some market analysts and enthusiasts are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching or exceeding the $100,000 m",decrease,decrease,True,True,174.6129,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:20:13.248208Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The real life superhero has more important things to do than pump & dumping,increase,increase,True,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T15:01:26.327393Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Polymarket is worth over 80 million, I don't think they care about this shit",increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:39:07.590423Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""The Lord is close to the brokenhearted and saves those who are crushed in spirit."" - Guwop 34:18",flip,hold,False,True,6748.5574,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T12:59:36.291214Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"he just needs to tweet, lol you think he won't tweet? Plus he just filed with the SEC a day later back last November 11t",increase,increase,True,True,25024.2139,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-02-01T06:39:34.852379Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,"@TIPS Is there a chance he¡¯ll tweet tomorrow to get the 'NO' at a better price, or is it over?",increase,decrease,False,True,2531.79,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:34:48.645516Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Why would they care so much about shilling their shitty NFT's if they knew they were going to make millions on Ye coin, ",decrease,increase,False,True,2434.786,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:31:04.046143Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,literally no whale has sold yet on no. Why should anyone else?,decrease,increase,False,True,689.6608,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T14:32:35.204287Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,bears selling why btc pumping on weekend only because saylor is buying...,flip,increase,False,True,1897.5816,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-07T08:01:17.474805Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"I don't trust them, i think its a yes.",flip,decrease,False,True,211.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T11:53:49.294261Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,100k looking not so unreachable now??,hold,increase,False,True,2959.2699,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:49:45.326461Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"almost no liquidity in the Yes buying market, if you want to get out you better do it quick",flip,decrease,False,True,2271.7461,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:14:37.622706Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,you tip me 100 on no ill tip you 100 on yes,hold,hold,True,True,11269.9082,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-22T15:45:09.596063Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I asked chatgpt if bitcoin will be over 100k in November and it said NO. You can ask yourselves, im not lying, you can a",hold,hold,True,True,145.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:14:37.989995Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"initial momentum completely died down, pretty much half of US market time is already over",flip,increase,False,True,2271.7375,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:17:04.515446Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,sending our thoughts and prayers,flip,decrease,False,True,114.1475,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T19:07:19.410122Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,After long hours of thinking I chose my side. Game on,increase,increase,True,True,775.5648,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:45:43.463804Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""jewish people aren't telling me what to do"" YESBROS STUNNED ONCE AGAIN.",flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T13:56:27.848288Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Now he sold all the NOs and put the profits into Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?,decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:32:23.766108Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,you can tell her after your lose your money maybe,hold,decrease,False,True,10361.214,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T12:19:51.026195Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You propably wont see that again.,flip,increase,False,True,1608.563,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T05:11:39.041527Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i already get 0 bitches so this changes nothing for me,decrease,hold,False,True,112.5356,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:59:03.908874Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,he's gonna dump at 50c to break even on his pnl,hold,decrease,False,True,2.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:26:41.400676Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,all guys who sold at 15 cents are now rebuying after expiriencing massive panic :),flip,increase,False,True,2029.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T00:56:25.450448Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Atleast you're able to sleep after you sell,decrease,decrease,True,True,1058.33,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:19:22.525436Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"if it was so common sense you would've held, not scalped for a few cents",decrease,decrease,True,True,143.1412,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:28:10.748828Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"any chance of btc coming back up to 98k over the weekend, 5 - 10% ?",decrease,decrease,True,True,3510.0479,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:20:17.946798Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Does not even make sense to drop when most of his audience is asleep.,flip,hold,False,True,501.8415,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:46:48.558605Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Okay, Okay, Okay, I need the price to go up. I can't take this anymore. Everyday I'm checking the price and it's dipping",decrease,decrease,True,True,477.4108,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:50:35.891344Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Lol markets haven't even opened yet, I wouldn't be confident on either side lol",flip,decrease,False,True,1608.7077,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:22:47.794204Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nice logic, thank you mister wisy",hold,hold,True,True,7235.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T14:34:55.891114Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,can you spare a change? this old fool needs moneh,decrease,decrease,True,True,465.3916,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T12:51:04.400468Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,I love when NO after graph always in chat trying to feed own ego and then lose classic,increase,decrease,False,True,44.87,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T00:55:30.939592Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thinking to cashout now. up already 8800$,decrease,decrease,True,True,26904.9498,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T11:40:33.917719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"but it will not go back to 100k, you must consider it.",hold,increase,False,True,5512.4691,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T12:30:16.831Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I did not know that my low ball orders were filled.... Any big whale order and we will be down to 36 cents...,increase,decrease,False,True,2218.5964,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T22:21:50.691563Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"yea ok this is true, he just has to tweet what he's bought from last week not from Monday. But he hasn't bought any last",decrease,hold,False,True,20325.0533,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:26:05.612069Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Chris McKinney. Chris McKinney. This is the name you that'll give you all the answers you need.,hold,hold,True,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T13:35:00.256114Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,He can't let us down on this first week,decrease,increase,False,True,3232.8072,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:23:06.160644Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Jim Circus about to destroy my account:(,decrease,decrease,True,True,273.5393,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T16:56:14.342341Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How high we going to night? 95c?,flip,hold,False,True,951.3537,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-25T14:04:40.356743Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,He'd be crazy not to take advantage of a price dip and get more for less. Investors like a bargain.,hold,increase,False,True,811.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T09:42:46.187108Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,This pump will at most go to 96.6k and price might pump to 25c at best. But good luck I guess,flip,increase,False,True,278.2851,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-02T11:17:40.058255Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"thankf for pumping NO from 20 to 60, tard",increase,hold,False,True,5464.6023,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:05:06.431769Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,DO Y'ALL KNOW HOW EASY IT IS TO SPOOF AN EMAIL ADDRESS?,increase,decrease,False,True,3944.7672,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T07:05:32.639857Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"they're reading my dispute, it's really good. BowBow is about to pay me real good for saving him",hold,hold,True,True,5003.9635,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T14:21:14.112839Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,maybe go through 100000 in few hours?,increase,increase,True,True,11.3285,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-21T09:41:35.774142Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,that he defenetly did not buy when market pushed lower. because when he buys price stalls in place / goes up. not down.,increase,decrease,False,True,3919.8666,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T17:23:47.429528Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Hopefully if he doesn¡¯t buy he still makes a twitter post and drives yes price to 99 cents!!! Then the smart ones wi,flip,increase,False,True,50.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:22:26.814923Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Where do you think the $15m grant for spreading LGBTQ awareness among Cambodian youth went to,flip,decrease,False,True,225292.9331,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-13T15:02:54.000674Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",They will have the vacation of their lifetime,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:48:20.804247Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"glad u can see yourself he wont make a coin, good that your first time will be a win, dont fall for the scams/propaganda",increase,increase,True,True,1.7352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T12:36:17.385005Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,how you so sure they aret any insiders.. you wouldn't be saying that if you had yes shares,decrease,decrease,True,True,4220.3061,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:33:43.956295Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,fucking spam him on twitter to not launch this token PLEASE,flip,hold,False,True,166.7112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-12T17:32:53.511814Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,"Yeah, they are done with polymarket now I guess",decrease,hold,False,True,476.3252,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:59:56.936599Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"u better sell, ill crashout if you waste this opportunity you have",increase,decrease,False,True,1.7352,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T10:11:18.466299Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"today market is closed and people are playing with their dogs, tomorrow is friday and just like last week nothing will h",decrease,increase,False,True,196.0446,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-20T15:01:39.050289Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","we are not suffering lmao, 10 days to go for it to hit, thats a long time in crypto",hold,increase,False,True,1186.6251,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T21:22:49.051648Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,im new here. is the calendar being a thing like meant to be a secret?,increase,hold,False,True,57.5867,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:25:00.976833Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye West drops the mic on meme coin launch rumors: 'I'm not doing a coin"" https://cryptobriefing.com/kanye-west-meme-",hold,increase,False,True,2005.1286,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:06:43.465573Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,aenews hasnt sold what are you talking about,decrease,hold,False,True,85.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T20:06:02.274625Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Well, you know, the insider's grin",hold,hold,True,True,7235.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T11:18:48.584047Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,imagine betting against the insiders when even Saylor said some weeks you don't buy ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,160.65,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T17:53:03.921468Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,broki u dont even have the money to lose it,decrease,decrease,True,True,208204.1122,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T01:24:10.465125Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Guys can someone help me? So if we keep holding until tomorrow and it closes in ""NO"" what's next? I'm new. What will hap",decrease,hold,False,True,2040.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T13:03:48.394039Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,He personally knows Satoshi Nakamoto,increase,hold,False,True,11463.7462,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T06:02:51.739764Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Most people don't know how to use crypto he wouldn't make any money doing that,increase,increase,True,True,2125.93,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:21:36.144264Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,COINDESK CAN SUCK MY FAT BALLS,increase,hold,False,True,3944.7672,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T05:18:24.301691Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We are survivors of the storm, no one is an insider.",decrease,hold,False,True,8374.068,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T09:13:02.060657Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I've noticed that not many YES holder making comments,flip,hold,False,True,2891.1667,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T21:20:54.896495Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Now we're betting this fuckin money on him,hold,increase,False,True,1380.3566,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-18T12:51:43.721336Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"saylor have just one time he didnt buy, he raised capital nigga and he need to keep buying",flip,increase,False,True,28.35,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T12:02:02.194673Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,There's just one issue. One hour in this parallel Ye-verse is like living 7 years in normie muggle land.,hold,hold,True,True,30336.6707,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:26:50.593215Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I joined Polymarket to bet on elections and geopolitics and now look at me, I'm betting on Swatiska memecoin tweets",decrease,decrease,True,True,1484.1451,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:54:59.079722Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think I'm gna pick up more No like a degenerate ??,increase,increase,True,True,77.65,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-07T12:30:44.238675Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Will MSTR remain solvent? That's the real question.,hold,decrease,False,True,41.07,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T17:03:23.628482Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,nah bro have some respect for bro not giving a fuck,increase,hold,False,True,40.38,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T11:29:27.303126Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,where did you get the information?,hold,hold,True,True,166.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T03:45:58.214378Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,calm down mr money bags100 dollars is pretty high even for a good steak,flip,hold,False,True,9920.6484,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T13:03:24.531051Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I¡¯ve watched this video he didn¡¯t mention anything related to being a degen trader,increase,decrease,False,True,2069.0883,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:36:49.402217Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,stfu and suck his dick quit taking up chat space,flip,hold,False,True,1028.8215,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:57:23.145053Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,its a new day in america ??????,flip,hold,False,True,2510.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:20:09.425397Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,0xba2cb3168709dc3880243586448d6d67afc2bf17 is ae news guys he was on both sides the whole time lol,decrease,hold,False,True,14213.459,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T19:05:24.308636Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it's going to reach 100k when americans go back home,decrease,hold,False,True,135.846,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T07:50:05.163233Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"yep and also altcoin season has started, so money flowing now from bitcoin to alts",hold,hold,True,True,57.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:20:17.131142Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,btcbear is now buying yes as well,flip,increase,False,True,464.1539,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2b3b5be9213507c322078ffae836131a24966fba --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,481 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +522080,2025-02-21T14:12:05.732909Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,lmao this market is a big scammmmmmm,flip,hold,False,True,324.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T11:51:59.330864Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Bro People posting thinks and they havent bet anything,hold,hold,True,True,26.25,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T05:42:26.677903Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",you still have time to make this right,hold,decrease,False,True,17950.954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:23:35.272704Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,no chance they bought a shi ton not that long ago,decrease,increase,False,True,38.9833,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:57:31.047639Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are not cut out to be trader, dont make any pointless bets and just save your money my friend",hold,decrease,False,True,5533.7285,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T10:56:11.736995Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"It should really be at 50 because he said this week, there is a 50-50 chance that it happens before saturday",increase,flip,False,True,3526.0437,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T00:18:33.908981Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,IN BOWBOW WE TRUST #PumpBitcoin ??,decrease,increase,False,True,123.7305,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T04:45:17.394123Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo, one of u dubai oil whales lemme get 10k shares rq",hold,hold,True,True,3862.6499,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T00:09:20.211068Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Anyone clicked on the link from kanye's latest tweet?,flip,hold,False,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-14T13:21:51.432987Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,Could you send me please the link of this news from londoninsider?,hold,hold,True,True,8.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T13:17:26.223086Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,What do I do with the address tho?,flip,hold,False,True,1824.1137,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:50:49.485247Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Most likelly he thinks how crazy people are about money and he don't care at all,decrease,hold,False,True,1801.4536,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T12:06:45.966299Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,how are you constantly generate winnings? and even if gl explaining that to your local tax office,hold,decrease,False,True,515.66,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:18:11.489667Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"As I told Earlier I am not Selling 1 YES shares also, I am okay to lose all no issues, But won¡¯t sell my 1 share also e",decrease,increase,False,True,632404.2006,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T15:49:35.231422Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Fr.... It was hard watching my last dollars on this platform to go from -5% to -80% then doubling down,flip,decrease,False,True,1824.1137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T20:26:16.073815Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,THIS PAGE FEELS LIKE 4CHAN NGL,flip,hold,False,True,38849.9344,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T16:39:15.619335Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,come on guys i gotta sell at 20 i quit this bs,flip,decrease,False,True,43.7447,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:28:02.132709Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,I will feel very bad for you if there is no announcement in the next 3 hours lmaooo,hold,decrease,False,True,13.7788,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:26:03.378612Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"...HEY, ATLEAST IT'S SOME KIND OF NEWS THAT I RECEIVED A SCAM EMAIL, YOU KNOW, MIGHT REPORT ON THIS.",flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T18:09:01.764392Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye followed Olaf yesterday, he is part owner of polymarket",increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T04:42:30.709781Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I am also a small fish, but i did some degen trades so i am here xD",increase,hold,False,True,14366.748,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T12:00:05.475841Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,Here we go. 8 AM. Best of luck to ALL holders.,hold,hold,True,True,2487.8602,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T12:27:15.988912Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,He buys almost every week. That's it lol.,flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T04:41:47.257362Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Before you try to reassure yourself about your bet and call us an idiot, educate yourself. Who will tell you that he wil",decrease,decrease,True,True,57.41,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T15:49:26.114681Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i guess a bull run immediately after the last one is possible...,flip,decrease,False,True,344.1405,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T09:32:38.799173Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It is until the last day of November. About 47 hours to go.,hold,hold,True,True,5003.9635,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T02:19:50.923146Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"The resistance is too high, there are too many sell orders between 98000 and 100000. It is impossible it can hit 100000",decrease,increase,False,True,508.22,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T01:22:09.923897Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It's two days away from ending and they still selling a dollar for 90c this is crazy,decrease,increase,False,True,890.345,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T09:49:20.675911Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,ay I managed to sell at 83c and buy back at 81c feels nice,decrease,hold,False,True,278.2826,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:46:19.503971Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,nah bro i wanted to buy but now i realised im wrong.,flip,flip,True,True,2518.6,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T10:59:05.956926Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"We hit 99,600 today.. more than a week to go.. just sayin",hold,increase,False,True,2201.2848,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T09:10:58.470498Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Not to be downer but, what does bitcoin import form China, which will effect it's bottom line?",flip,decrease,False,True,86.9765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T15:48:45.460456Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"It only needs to boost 5% within 1 week, thats nothing",hold,increase,False,True,22.36,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-21T10:55:20.534869Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,7k a bitcoin? I would be happy to buy,hold,increase,False,True,12.15,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:37:02.277228Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,'NO' Hodler HOLD STRONG.... WATCH THIS BEFORE YOU CONSIDER SELLING https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vuetQSwFW8&t=703s,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T22:17:42.198186Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i gotta catch a flight. dont do anything retarded while im gone people.....,flip,decrease,False,True,3518.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T09:16:39.748096Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,kanye is very unpredictable. Betting on him is like betting on horses or playing the roulette. But at least he said he w,decrease,decrease,True,True,374.4024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T20:59:54.437398Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Yes holders are only down 45% from the peak which means they can only fall 45% more.,increase,decrease,False,True,22367.984,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T17:59:11.121631Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"i dont know nothing about microstrategy but when i see they buy every single week, why woudnt they buy it now? bitcoin i",hold,increase,False,True,55.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T15:42:37.283645Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,hes probably running out of money,flip,decrease,False,True,1.05,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T22:06:05.512113Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,GeorgeFloydFentanyl lost $10K on his yes positions and I¡¯m so happy,decrease,hold,False,True,3120.216,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T08:58:36.806295Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Just break 96k already omg, I want my shares back cheap",increase,decrease,False,True,60.2237,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:40:36.441606Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,GOOD NEWS FELLOW YES VOTERS! BILLIONAIRE ELON MUSK JUST SAID ON X HE WILL PUMP BITCOIN WITH 3 BILLION SHEKELS HE GOT FRO,flip,flip,True,True,4108.94,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:34:48.645516Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Why would they care so much about shilling their shitty NFT's if they knew they were going to make millions on Ye coin, ",increase,increase,True,True,2434.786,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T17:16:32.185094Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,w8 till Tuesday. This Weekend like last weekend seemed to be having a sell off... This will go to Monday probably like l,flip,decrease,False,True,0.142,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:46:06.027903Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yo in denial nigga, the token launches tonight",decrease,increase,False,True,54.5038,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T08:54:09.089254Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,No offence bro but you do know that right that after he posts Saylor tracker pic on his twitter which he did last mornin,hold,flip,False,True,2029.1785,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:07:37.031503Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,your printing money on both sides and bluff complaining lmfao,flip,hold,False,True,9238.3384,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-18T16:42:16.037438Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Same thing I¡¯m thinking the same. They bought on the 9th and 15th of this month. Why would the turn around and buy more,increase,increase,True,True,24.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T02:02:34.734831Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,no nigga im all in.... I never sold,flip,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T11:50:54.901508Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,No. They like to buy at high points.,hold,hold,True,True,21.38,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:45:22.662399Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,dont think he just tripping (praying for that),decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-17T22:47:43.028135Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",you mean in November? or in general?,hold,decrease,False,True,8937.0661,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T16:19:42.678682Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"I will take my chance, I got nothing to lose anyway, might just add this week's coffee budget... I can survive a week wi",hold,increase,False,True,17.65,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T03:19:00.653228Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","bitchhhhhhhh, you shall not pass!!!",decrease,increase,False,True,5545.8165,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T17:24:20.992899Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,better to give me money instead giving to the polymarket,decrease,decrease,True,True,45.87,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T04:28:48.604631Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,LOL you fell for a bank of yzy scam....,flip,decrease,False,True,1824.1137,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-02-02T13:49:33.342958Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,@gregorybox you are dope! Cry tears of joy you deserve it,flip,hold,False,True,992.5858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:17:30.003754Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,WHAT ABOUT BOW BOW IS MICHEAL SAYLOR PLOT TWIST THOUGH,hold,hold,True,True,406.59,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:36:06.223296Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,better prices for bowbow i guess,flip,hold,False,True,2271.7415,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T10:38:41.113104Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,or maybe you get paid big time,hold,decrease,False,True,67.58,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T13:44:05.483832Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Looks like Mr fujin wanna go all in this week ??,decrease,increase,False,True,4969.9359,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T19:53:39.148326Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You wiggas are insecure. Having your nipples sucked BY A WOMAN isn't gay. IT'S A WOMAN DOING IT. Gay = being attracted t,flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T22:40:38.169839Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Your last chance to buy Yes, the coin name KanyeWest Coin or Ye , this is up now by 31k percent. This coin is leaked by ",increase,increase,True,True,111.6205,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:43:34.799841Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"HE LAUNCHED IT AND DELETED THE TWEET,",increase,flip,False,True,3526.0437,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T00:45:01.617684Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,thanks for the info. I learned something,decrease,hold,False,True,56.567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T06:31:44.839988Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,im talking about Monday holiday not any other day,decrease,hold,False,True,5123.5971,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:11:09.151775Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I don't know what is happening I need guwop's guidance,flip,decrease,False,True,6748.5574,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:27:25.278275Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,My average buy price for 'No' is 28 cents. This shit is too easy. YOU WIGGAS CAN'T STOP ME!!!!!!!!,flip,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T06:50:53.200794Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Where is the 8K filing? Are you yes holders scared yet?,increase,increase,True,True,12.7788,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:12:52.609204Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He won¡¯t even trust those crypto industry people,decrease,increase,False,True,3350.5145,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T12:35:03.504627Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,he literally posted the chart.,flip,increase,False,True,351.34,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T10:24:49.096219Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Idc , its gambling law get juicy odds , saylor can break his armn and not tweet anything or for any other reason else . ",increase,decrease,False,True,9.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T18:46:11.878108Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he will make way more on friday,increase,hold,False,True,3526.0437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T08:05:57.254785Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"aenews is just trading volatility, he is will exit before the end of the month",increase,decrease,False,True,3526.0437,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T21:14:55.989954Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,wait is that how you spell releived? i before e right?,increase,hold,False,True,19498.8239,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T00:32:47.486317Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",I wish you the best of luck my dude,decrease,hold,False,True,88.63,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T16:58:52.283886Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Noo , he didn't buy it, u can see the same btc holding, there is no increase, I mean according to his post, he didn't bu",hold,increase,False,True,142.2751,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-23T14:41:21.431364Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I will finally win. it's a roller coaster,decrease,hold,False,True,11314.3709,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:56:06.427429Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Rush my ass. You lying scumbags had me shitting my pants for something that was an easy 1-2%,flip,increase,False,True,704.5783,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T12:59:13.092665Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,financial report: us citizens are dumping btc to buy overpriced turkeys,hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:48:47.207041Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"hussein, can you accept my calls",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:33:13.073504Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,the only thing that can stop me is another US election,increase,hold,False,True,4713.7951,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T22:23:31.074648Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,here is his profile so we never forget: https://polymarket.com/profile/0xd60e65c2b296d359bf79ac69b427ceb87e81d385,hold,hold,True,True,266.37,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:10:29.647692Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The retards are exit liquidity for the so-called ""insiders"". What a sight.",flip,increase,False,True,3729.6222,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T00:55:11.943652Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",All my 95k brothers... if you dont sell you wont be able to sleep tonight,decrease,decrease,True,True,1058.33,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T11:29:53.191247Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Almost like Kanye is bipolar or something,decrease,hold,False,True,716.6325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T12:30:16.831Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I did not know that my low ball orders were filled.... Any big whale order and we will be down to 36 cents...,flip,decrease,False,True,2218.5964,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T04:18:18.485145Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Prolly true still could¡¯ve took a bit of it though,decrease,decrease,True,True,39.0903,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T15:37:38.651738Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"lol, anyone with a brain knows the correct answer.",increase,increase,True,True,3034.4191,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T12:30:14.940303Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,they announced completion of STRK on the earnings call. STRK is actively trading as its own ticker and has been since Th,hold,increase,False,True,23639.3842,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T22:04:27.278549Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Please Bitcoin hit 100K so i can win some money and stay on the website ??,increase,decrease,False,True,64.55,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T12:11:47.455509Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Maybe dont want to risk or somethig?,increase,decrease,False,True,388.0197,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T20:24:44.644445Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I can't believe when I started this journey, I didn't think we'd win... we're gonna win.",hold,increase,False,True,1586.4206,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T23:00:50.259146Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You're right, it's better to be careful",flip,decrease,False,True,1013.9556,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T11:32:40.322757Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"15 hour but if no announcement in 40 minutes , its almost done",hold,decrease,False,True,19.63,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:49:19.829588Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,You gotta buy now before that otherwise everyone else will buy NO & your purchase value will decrease,increase,decrease,False,True,116.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:33:54.530584Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Oh Shit, he just launched its over",increase,flip,False,True,3526.0437,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:20:49.932394Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Bro Richard Lovitz is a video game character, obviously he is joking",hold,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:38:45.123668Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Probably has some grand idea beyond crypto between Gas blasts,flip,hold,False,True,15745.6369,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-10T12:57:53.703893Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.,hold,hold,True,True,4.51,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T00:21:09.537134Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"no bros new to poly, when it resolves there will be a button to claim your money. dont sell, risks slippage",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-01-31T18:23:08.300069Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,"@ExtraBased is cashing out, what a champ",increase,decrease,False,True,2468.7501,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:48:01.868673Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"It's fair, just feel bad for paper handed no's being influenced",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:11:25.687397Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"It's fake, the article is based on an email address where a guy claimed to be kanyes chief financial officer, why would ",increase,increase,True,True,3125.1672,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T13:05:06.403047Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Even tho I dislike him launching a pshysical coin would be based as fuck,increase,hold,False,True,744.6954,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-09T11:52:37.250432Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,Yes he does. If he buys at the high points it allows him to buy more amounts of bitcoin.,hold,flip,False,True,21.38,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T12:18:37.248177Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You have to edge the No shares and not blow your load. It takes practice g,flip,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T07:00:20.088441Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"How is this 2%, and who tf are people buying yes shares with 20hours left while market is on saturday and going down and",hold,increase,False,True,27503.848,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T00:45:52.683854Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"Fairly certain he meant as a focus, ATM will be hit in small amounts and converts come end of Q1.",flip,hold,False,True,403.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-21T11:30:20.226863Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"it wont hit 100k in november, correction to 90k coming today or friday",increase,increase,True,True,191.27,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T02:36:39.275981Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Why do yall wiggas care about what Sam Kessler has to say? Why is he so ""important""?",hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T21:08:49.563105Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,All these whites care about Ukraine but don't give a fuck about Palestine or the Congo. Whites only care about Ukraine b,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:03:34.004997Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is classic example of how to launder money with a profit + fun.,hold,hold,True,True,4264.0838,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-05-30T01:37:08.367784Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I withdraw money from here to the exchange and select usdc.e. What should I do if the exchange does not receive usdc? Re,hold,hold,True,True,6.307,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T22:01:20.056475Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I bought another $1k of NO now!,flip,increase,False,True,3518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T08:02:11.492928Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Alpha, you could have bonded N Russia-Ukraine ceasefire 2025 instead, smh",increase,hold,False,True,7.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T20:24:24.967045Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"he sold some shares, used to hold bout 300k",decrease,decrease,True,True,682.7623,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T04:53:22.910213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i love ye but i fucking hate his music,hold,hold,True,True,45.5014,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:53:27.404995Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He launched the coin... we win,flip,flip,True,True,90.0736,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T03:45:58.214378Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,calm down mr money bags100 dollars is pretty high even for a good steak,flip,hold,False,True,9920.6484,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:36:20.413016Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,OH NO... ALL THE RETARDS FINALLY CAUGHT UP AND NOW BUYING YES SHARES HOLISTICALLY,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2722,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T20:38:57.002832Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He hasn't posted anything for over 9 hours. Do you think it's for a reason?,hold,decrease,False,True,38.8628,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T22:56:15.651692Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"those odds are cooked, if it was 35c i would have bought",flip,decrease,False,True,52.6209,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T12:41:33.096951Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Rich kid's music sounds like dog shit, never heard of him before. Kanye on the other hand only produces the finest music",flip,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T14:34:34.905416Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"In this game, its all about heart",flip,hold,False,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:06:47.924202Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Join us.. you know you want to ??,increase,increase,True,True,2201.2848,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:13:24.226961Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Why have you increased your position so much in the last few hours? There are just over 3 days left and Kanye tweeted th,decrease,flip,False,True,160.73,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:49:58.481235Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"thank god, for people that cant even check kanyes twitter and keep believe news",hold,increase,False,True,41.12,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T00:19:01.627453Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"100k soon, the train has departed",hold,flip,False,True,2499.5772,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:47:17.738559Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yeah obviously it¡¯s not ideal that he acknowledged that he might wants to drop a coin, but he gave key information on t",flip,decrease,False,True,3729.6222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T04:20:44.487586Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,we all here know podgies account belongs to you only,decrease,hold,False,True,5123.5971,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:59:13.390996Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,why is yes on 66 btw? are yall retarded?,increase,increase,True,True,115.8031,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-17T08:50:12.395167Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,I think you need to buy more No until yes is at 10c and then go all in,flip,flip,True,True,600.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-01T05:43:13.613485Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"https://x.com/saylor/status/1928878275473899642. Looking from his post, he's going to buy more. Remember the dot com bus",increase,flip,False,True,2.4204,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T13:44:54.820463Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Just put your liquidity in the bag,decrease,increase,False,True,184.4696,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:34:57.919826Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I think I bet a little too much on this market. If I played it better, could have come out even instead.",hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T14:48:35.537972Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm a lil concerned right now. it seems like they are doubling down,flip,decrease,False,True,4116.9017,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:08:45.318913Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yeah yeah, keep watching for the sidelines",flip,hold,False,True,264.2328,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T22:39:53.853049Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I BOUGHT NO AT 28 CENTS WIGGAZ. THIS SHIT IS TOO EASY,flip,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:49:11.857394Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,MICROSTRATEGY HAVE NEVER EVER ANNOUNCED A BUY ON A DAY WHEN US STOCK MARKET IS CLOSED,flip,increase,False,True,2518.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T16:53:34.173486Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Lmao almost 95k and its still 25c, brutal",hold,decrease,False,True,2499.5772,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T09:03:46.801468Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",could you please send me a link if there is a chart or indicator about options value/expectations etc.? I am too ignoren,hold,decrease,False,True,8937.0661,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T20:39:29.093897Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,bro needs to put down the cup fr,flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T13:44:30.155251Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Nah he¡¯s good at predicting .. I get that,hold,hold,True,True,2029.1785,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T15:00:33.377034Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,back to 91 in 5 minutes lmaooo,flip,hold,False,True,63.704,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T21:46:06.050654Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,ur mom told me to sell after i cummed in her,flip,hold,False,True,2518.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:31:10.317936Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh guys, i missed it, i wanted to buy all in YES, crap... can smb tip me i would buy YES all IN",decrease,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-12T19:25:27.816374Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Market doesn't ""chase liquidity"" bro, it moves in relation to market and limit orders. If there are more market buy orde",decrease,hold,False,True,22.3669,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T02:48:10.537899Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I like how you're feeding the fuck out of that car,flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T05:18:24.301691Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We are survivors of the storm, no one is an insider.",decrease,hold,False,True,8374.068,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T05:57:52.587551Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You're not black, but even if you are, you're one of those self-hating blacks, that bows down and appeases whites",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:41:06.241332Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can we pls go back to 29c days?,flip,decrease,False,True,1846.3537,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:17:53.974882Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i have information that you will want to know,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2722,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T13:25:15.476866Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,now a question for all the NO holders: why not sell the bits left? Why all of you still holding?,hold,decrease,False,True,67.58,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T12:48:11.970886Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bowbow still dropping money on yes jesus,flip,decrease,False,True,244.1405,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:26:43.368115Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I could be watching a show or playing a game rn as I don't plan on betting, but I can't keep my eyes off of this market ",flip,hold,False,True,6748.5574,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T18:09:30.816064Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,So ye told him he was launching a coin that's why they approved the markets,increase,flip,False,True,3526.0437,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:24:16.474883Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,CAN THE PRICE OF NO LOWER A BIT PLEASE,hold,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:00:14.726003Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""The YZY token was initially set to go for sale on Yeezy's website on Thursday at 6:00 p.m., but the launch was delayed ",flip,flip,True,True,3683.2722,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T14:32:53.418803Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,How the fuck price not at 99.9c?,flip,decrease,False,True,1459.2589,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:52:37.766578Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"kanye sitting at his couch sniffin on da gas, he's not capable of launching no shit",decrease,increase,False,True,798.2032,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T16:59:30.668749Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Last 4 times Saylor post purchase on same time 8:00AM ET or 14:00 PM europe,hold,increase,False,True,689.7017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T21:46:51.512871Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"dump: completed, retail trap: in progress, panic selloff: loading",increase,increase,True,True,722.4882,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T11:44:47.370126Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye has finished crashing out,decrease,increase,False,True,890.345,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +548985,2025-06-08T12:27:01.634583Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,"He post About bitcoin everyday, we¡¯ll see the results tomorrow!!",hold,flip,False,True,1.56,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T21:27:03.437374Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Wait Alphax will you be refunding every one here if No looses ?,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T18:55:02.682711Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"To all the ""noers,"" please, I sincerely beg you, do not tempt karma. Life has a way of surprising us, and what we send o",decrease,decrease,True,True,2040.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T09:54:43.313322Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Why this %, it happened something that we have to know?",increase,hold,False,True,27.56,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:15:42.100139Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bc there is none, surely give me a dollar this is a easy 5 X, i have nothing rn and this easy no",hold,increase,False,True,1.73,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T05:22:04.768521Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I just sold so I can buy more NO's when it goes to 95%,increase,increase,True,True,1435.6332,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:26:50.593215Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I joined Polymarket to bet on elections and geopolitics and now look at me, I'm betting on Swatiska memecoin tweets",decrease,decrease,True,True,1484.1451,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:34:37.438646Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Oh man all this copium of Yes holders ??,flip,decrease,False,True,52.6209,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T23:23:42.972459Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Are you setting a timer to let your wife out of the basement?,increase,hold,False,True,3105.3754,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T07:09:11.385911Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The top holders list for this market is insane. Treading very carefully.,increase,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:37:07.493541Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Coins are like overhyped collections which prey on they fans. And you really think he launches,hold,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T07:02:05.343705Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Tom sent me 10$ I love you ????,increase,hold,False,True,11.208,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T05:05:40.547945Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Good morning fellas how does it feels to keep winning and to the yes holders - why are you like this?,increase,increase,True,True,975.0804,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T15:26:34.244809Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"degen non stopping going for more than 911, maybe special edition or even he will go all in for ferrari / lambo.",flip,increase,False,True,499.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-23T13:07:54.348719Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"The issuance and sale of the perpetual strife preferred stock are scheduled to settle on March 25, 2025,",increase,decrease,False,True,907.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T14:21:14.112839Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,maybe go through 100000 in few hours?,increase,increase,True,True,11.3285,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-15T08:15:57.743565Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"No it doesn't matter the announcment, check rules! It says if a purches was made through 11-17 Feb",decrease,hold,False,True,35.24,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T06:15:50.132956Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You do realize that there could be 1 million of other stuff that Kanye could be doing, right? This isn't a binary option",increase,increase,True,True,2904.6644,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T03:18:08.099213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wow, a $12M volume trader who still holds positions that went to absolute zero. True market wizardry at work!",hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T14:12:24.692273Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,i guess he could still post the dot chart as his second post of the day?,hold,hold,True,True,36469.8739,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:43:01.526212Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,lol yall gotta stop trolling. i almost had a heart attack until i noticed the price hadn't moved,flip,hold,False,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T07:45:44.530957Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,also volume is too low to break atleast for now maybe in the coming work days MAYBE volume recovers then its possible to,hold,decrease,False,True,57.1,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:12:52.429122Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,did you really got tricked but scum coin or what,increase,decrease,False,True,53.11,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T12:07:41.993413Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Omg bro i told you to quit few days ago you are too emotional for this,decrease,decrease,True,True,5533.7285,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:14:12.003296Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"He will post later the chart. You are crazy, such a high bet on no¡­ you never no how sure he will act¡­",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:41:02.211289Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"He¡¯s made back $200k from from yesterday, honestly I wouldn¡¯t have doubled down with if it¡¯s wasn¡¯t for him",flip,increase,False,True,180.4805,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:57:04.634187Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,$40k is nothing to me bro. but anyway i am 100% sure on monday saylor will announce he bought. i have over $700k in MSTR,decrease,increase,False,True,8215.8427,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T07:03:52.763849Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Many years in the market, i can read sell orders when i see them boomer lol xD",hold,increase,False,True,27503.848,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-22T12:06:04.969381Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Not sure about that, No price still to high tbh",increase,hold,False,True,2648.3315,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:47:57.984432Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Community college about to go hard,flip,hold,False,True,1231.5515,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T07:03:41.747912Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I just want a pump that will panic sell people like you,decrease,increase,False,True,208.4243,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T23:58:29.107338Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"nope look at the new link i just commented, he asked me for 16 mil for the info",hold,hold,True,True,1442.4311,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T19:43:47.327374Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yea but like whats better making a power point of ww2 and the invasion of poland or watching someone loose 100k bc they ,hold,hold,True,True,111.39,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:03:00.673181Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,zoomers when reply has 13 words,decrease,hold,False,True,36.97,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:11:46.066192Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"please take a look at the chart, closely... The center of the last orange bubble is on the left of the vertical line for",decrease,flip,False,True,65.8695,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T03:23:43.312161Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",I dont feel bad lol. but youre welcome to tip me,decrease,hold,False,True,5545.8165,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:13.240454Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"if we can just cross the $101k barrier, we'll certainly succeed!",hold,increase,False,True,264.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T00:08:08.885533Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"polygon founder, CZ is binance founder",hold,hold,True,True,1442.4311,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T05:03:10.887253Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Id like to thank my Diamond hands. Also bowbow i hope youre okay mate,hold,hold,True,True,17948.6607,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T05:36:51.685031Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,circlejerk time!!! Let's all get into a circle formation and jerk off. The first one to cum loses. Pump it up babes,flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T05:12:38.714538Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,im telling y'all these things are much more lengthy than you think,increase,hold,False,True,44.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:01:21.547203Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Oh oh... That a lot of green... Hands shaking, brow sweeting. Dazed, reeling and confused.",increase,decrease,False,True,86.9789,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T15:30:24.239601Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Intended to buy, but sold accidentally.",decrease,decrease,True,True,221.4559,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T08:25:33.168714Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Guys we're about to take off. Buckle up,increase,increase,True,True,2904.6644,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T19:02:04.402681Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Make Sure they dont get adopted by 'Yes' holders, they will live a life in poverty.",decrease,hold,False,True,1208.5753,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T00:25:32.298438Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Still better than you to not buy yes and no both. Hedger detected.,decrease,decrease,True,True,89.2784,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T01:31:25.813484Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Whether the account is real or fake.. If only the coin is released, the approval of yes?",flip,hold,False,True,3375.3891,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T21:02:42.333143Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Im still new to charting so feedback is appreciated,flip,decrease,False,True,150.4805,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T09:52:12.589233Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,after kanye tweet coin is comming,increase,increase,True,True,4.8,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-18T07:17:52.193038Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Lesss gooo... possible is the thing if BTC is on the table,hold,increase,False,True,8937.0661,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:48:46.265261Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"A CFO's job is not to send emails to news reporters, that also doesn't make sense",flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T11:04:43.311669Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,The scammers chose Kanye because he seems unpredictable but he isn't as crazy as some might think. This wouldn't work wi,decrease,hold,False,True,740.0212,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T10:42:26.362614Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,2.5 Hours but I think the no holders have luck with the Bet this time.,decrease,increase,False,True,168.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:14:03.967493Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,this nigga is obviously trolling and laughing his ass off rn. btw he should launch on NiggaChainAI,increase,hold,False,True,50.51,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T14:12:50.566407Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You make my head go round go round ... when you go :),increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-22T07:15:19.576917Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,Michael Saylor announced 19 hrs ago the pricing of their preferred stock sale. The settlement will be done on 25th so un,increase,increase,True,True,687.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T18:46:12.393646Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The way he tweets, even If its real, the launch is definitely not ready yet",hold,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T12:05:01.591528Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I suppose its not gaining much traction, grok referred me to it",increase,hold,False,True,510.8878,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T17:34:17.352092Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"no, its pretty much guaranteed he will not launch you can still get your money out of yes and get 50% on no",decrease,increase,False,True,5724.53,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T13:38:36.075722Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Make sense. Remember they dumped it to 11c and many bought it,flip,hold,False,True,1824.1137,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T16:15:28.547505Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,but you think no will win? bc you have much money on it,hold,increase,False,True,47.23,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T03:35:48.872185Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,fuck harvard. They're a bunch of legacy/nepotism admissions,flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-04T20:58:12.071322Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"btc dropping, market closed today. bears pushing lower and lower.",flip,decrease,False,True,1948.6025,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T08:33:53.584879Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,That aint no wall brotha ??????,flip,hold,False,True,2446.2921,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:59:45.610845Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""Back in 2009, the folks over at OKCupid culled through the site's data and similarly found that race played a big role ",hold,hold,True,True,110.004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T19:43:31.248828Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Steak dinner gonna be good on 1 February¡­thanks yes buyers cant believe you sold me your shares so cheap,increase,increase,True,True,4892.05,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T11:09:47.057645Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Dont worry yes holder will win. All this no holder know nothing,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T23:00:05.804839Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,No is free money right now basically,decrease,increase,False,True,198.11,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T10:59:54.460006Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,Its actually 50-50 If he buys today. Would be 1 week. Based on the last few months he did buy after 7 days pretty often.,increase,decrease,False,True,1476.13,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:41:45.392379Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye can't legally do it anymore hahahaha - https://x.com/FearedBuck/status/1892597395042525432,decrease,increase,False,True,4444.2472,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T20:48:51.204699Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,also crazy bio for a guy who's lost money on here,decrease,hold,False,True,56.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T12:12:48.604407Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Feminine chem It¡¯s crazy insider he only did all in bets on microstrategy when they Don¡¯t buy kinda suspicious,hold,decrease,False,True,7.93,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-05T13:23:31.250272Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Do we have any news of saylor buying ?,increase,hold,False,True,71.2439,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:28:51.678881Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,By my calculations we are about $2k from $100k,flip,increase,False,True,255.2328,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:17:42.483034Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Whites are barbaric?, have you seen Africa?",increase,hold,False,True,2434.786,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-21T14:19:34.349675Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Saylor is not gonna buy . Cause he just bought with all the money how got from funding,increase,increase,True,True,2.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-07T11:48:11.787242Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,13 min and we will know who is the real insider,decrease,hold,False,True,143.8135,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:22:05.575273Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This is the most confusing thing ever lol, going to be the longest week",increase,decrease,False,True,430.2753,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T02:01:06.879336Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I agree, they didn't believe in us. No one believed in us. GOD DID",flip,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T06:47:45.218436Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can someone make a market for March ? Need to make it back,flip,decrease,False,True,4028.2222,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T20:10:31.717911Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I wish I had 122 k to put into a bond fire,hold,hold,True,True,111.39,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:29:45.370049Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"no, theyre greedy jews that want more,. thats why theyre not selling",flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T12:02:15.602638Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,i'm pointing to the coinbase prime wallet that is feeding MSTR's wallets. Here's Coinbase fee collecting wallet 3J7cUjBZ,hold,increase,False,True,23639.3842,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-23T18:59:29.307524Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah def negative for no holders that he posted the chart, but I bought a shitton of shares at 2c so could be well worth",increase,increase,True,True,966.1162,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T02:18:01.656413Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Maybe. I just think that promoting a meme coins is mostly a matter of attracting attention and he is doing that.,decrease,decrease,True,True,82.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:15:15.779616Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"also didnt sleep well, but now I can sleep like a baby",flip,decrease,False,True,2271.7461,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T03:50:25.145572Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,There isn't but i notice when you sell its always a 1c or a fraction of a cent off exact market sell/buy price. My guess,increase,hold,False,True,2201.2848,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T11:17:43.587574Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"Yes the Opportunity is too good. Its really 50-50 more or less, dumb people giving good rates again",increase,flip,False,True,1476.13,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T16:13:51.621382Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I have to keep some money to live on. My girlfriend would be very upset if she knew I lost so much money.,hold,decrease,False,True,13611.9532,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-02T14:54:43.824542Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Yes, because if i want to buy something and i get funds to afford buying said thing, I - for some reason - WOULDNT want ",hold,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T18:12:44.485664Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,They already launched their fake coin check their twitter,decrease,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-24T10:05:56.757138Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","December end of year will usually be accounting, tax from companies. Will never reach 100k in 2024",flip,increase,False,True,4999.1934,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-10T08:13:25.075154Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,time is not up? read the rules,hold,hold,True,True,8.8283,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T03:27:39.627084Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye learned about the fashion industry for years prior to starting Yeezy and he did the same thing in music. He's tell,increase,increase,True,True,150.8,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T15:50:21.424476Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Giving a great deal on my No's, listed for 99.9c. Come get them while you can!",increase,increase,True,True,193.0492,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T18:57:19.517694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm all in. No standing back, no backing down. This is where legends are made. STAND YOUR GROUND! HODL!",increase,increase,True,True,2075.6963,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T01:58:01.294193Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This nigga is honestly god at deception..... I could never edge as hard as he could,decrease,hold,False,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T21:23:30.477937Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"It was just a bot making that trade, you think the guy is on 24/7",decrease,hold,False,True,15.9109,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T03:52:22.371769Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"even if he wanted to he cant, not enough liquidity",decrease,increase,False,True,4885.32,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:12:41.977099Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"hedge your loses at here NO, by buying YES at 100K nov29",decrease,decrease,True,True,11014.8691,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T19:12:01.024882Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,oh no no no .... YESbros are starting to crack...,decrease,flip,False,True,56.77,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T02:38:49.918842Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,welcome to the world of gambling,hold,hold,True,True,28.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:29:25.238684Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,YES gamblers lucky he mentioned all this somehow. Watch how they will Panic sell if he doesn¡¯t announce a coin on monda,hold,decrease,False,True,5320.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T07:48:06.536623Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"I see that you're new here. Alas, every week people like you come and lose money here, while YES holders continue to ear",increase,decrease,False,True,336.2851,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T17:54:54.912064Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i dont wanna say cuzz then everyone will sell YES and buy NO and then I wont get filled. so far i only have $7k position,decrease,hold,False,True,6876.0182,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T08:27:39.396698Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Why do so many people vote yes?,increase,hold,False,True,99.9708,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T07:23:43.543164Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,the is no doubt that you are so stupid,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521166,2025-02-25T17:59:12.247192Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",It might. There might also be a short term correction that saves the 85 k no bet for the next 83 hours. Nobody really kn,increase,decrease,False,True,5219.0828,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T09:23:13.724911Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,microstrategy is not going to buy bitcoin this week. buy NO and enjoy your free 10x,increase,increase,True,True,2.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T21:45:38.746348Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If the insiders were smart, would be good idea to make alts and buy N to avoid panic and exit their shares.",hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-27T13:51:08.153444Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"now that bots ain't here, this is free money",decrease,increase,False,True,744.62,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T15:00:33.913398Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,k lol no idea but sounds like a flip to me.... same as this,decrease,flip,False,True,4116.9017,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528620,2025-03-24T11:48:54.474388Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,Yeah just hope its tomorrow after that stock sale,hold,decrease,False,True,1647.13,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T18:50:07.194134Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Iam back guys what utter madness did I miss,decrease,hold,False,True,16.5546,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T04:26:51.045087Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"he will screw out his last supporters if he drops a scamcoin, so I think either later this year or never",decrease,increase,False,True,190.3856,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:35:40.242478Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I rather go down and see BowBow win seriously , 2.1 million",hold,hold,True,True,266.37,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:17:20.158311Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i hope you will be right, and enjoy your earnings, but im also selfish, so id like to win this ""battle""",decrease,hold,False,True,4.8342,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T03:25:42.574703Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thanks! I was too lazy to count.,hold,hold,True,True,8373.1482,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:39:38.997225Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,THERE IS NO DELAY. IT WAS A FRAUD ALL ALONG.,flip,increase,False,True,3683.2722,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T23:55:08.369647Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If I die, please Transfer my portfolio to my mum",increase,hold,False,True,4713.7951,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T12:43:06.469093Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ts is so retarded it¡¯s almost funny,decrease,hold,False,True,694.1524,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T11:53:14.502081Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Dear NO holders, u will win next time, ofc",decrease,flip,False,True,7208.2108,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T19:08:56.351462Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"At this point, people here are going full-on tin foil hat...",decrease,hold,False,True,151.548,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T03:18:45.180065Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I kinda wish now that all of a sudden last minute it goes to 100k, just because of BowBow",hold,decrease,False,True,266.37,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T21:28:56.492366Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,if he pulls it off in time i'll rename my kid 0x0A39f55aE14384,decrease,hold,False,True,16286.2937,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:07:12.968502Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,man i am fine with gambling my lunch money away with retarded moves but what the fuck are people like that thinking. lot,increase,decrease,False,True,696.8454,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-21T05:20:43.735231Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Click the 3 dots beside buy and sell buttons on the bottom of ur screen,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T08:16:32.161223Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If I don't win this I won't be able to pay this months rent :|,increase,decrease,False,True,77.216,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T21:08:24.862917Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Guys sell your no to me btc is gonna hit today trust me !,increase,flip,False,True,4.3097,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +535289,2025-04-13T18:58:03.102284Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,They havent bought yet. So lets see,increase,hold,False,True,4.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-16T13:37:20.786791Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,Make sure to buy YES shares very quickly when he tweets his chart so you lock in the best price and guarantee the most p,decrease,flip,False,True,401.99,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T03:25:18.058834Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He said ""YEEZY IS HERE TO CREATE A REAL CURRENCY ANY FIELD I GO INTO I LEARN FROM THE BEST AND TREAT THEIR LIFE LONG WOR",increase,increase,True,True,150.8,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T02:50:07.459481Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You're 4 inches inside of Drake and Kanye is 4 inches inside of you. Are you moving forwards or backwards?,flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +520619,2025-01-31T20:23:45.328987Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,Whoever put a buy wall at 77 please move it to 60,increase,decrease,False,True,2468.7501,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T17:19:51.655876Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,wait till monday is over and you see the no pump...,decrease,increase,False,True,5320.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T14:28:18.724405Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Well many of them can jump now with great bags of profits, so still the plan worked flawlessly. My hat goes of to the hu",increase,hold,False,True,6086.1059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T03:23:18.610844Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If someone thinks launching a Kanye Coin now is a good idea, they should reconsider their business instincts. The market",hold,increase,False,True,4264.0838,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-21T12:33:47.136182Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"CHINA UNBANNED BITCOIN POSSESION, IF CHINA CANT BAN, NOBODY CAN",decrease,increase,False,True,25.8229,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:04:22.422466Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,if you rent someone else's profile for 17 million it's obvious that you can ask them to make some videos of a few second,increase,hold,False,True,131.47,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T20:42:48.341543Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,what if bowbow has insider info that black rock is about to pump billions into bitcoin before friday,decrease,flip,False,True,3921.577,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:21:07.236706Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Ye revealed that he wants to drop the project on June 15,hold,decrease,False,True,4251.4838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T11:34:09.108816Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yo aenews2, if you fuck with Sam Kessler then I can't fuck with you wigga. I don't like that Kessler wigga",flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T20:51:58.566016Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Tokens are so last week, it's all about blockchains now. He's gonna be putting out a new video card to rival Nvidia next",decrease,hold,False,True,966.6325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:45:35.974859Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"everything will be ok bro, do not panic",decrease,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-20T09:53:51.569734Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,have fun. Prague is great city.,increase,hold,False,True,2903.3397,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:21:15.083541Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I need to make $4 its tough I know,hold,decrease,False,True,4.2684,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T16:18:12.737742Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I think everybody is waiting for the next tweet,flip,hold,False,True,744.1744,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T00:13:42.083849Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"for those who havent seen this, the doge nft losers are not incharge of dropping for kanye, they tried getting me to pay",hold,decrease,False,True,1442.4311,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T02:52:23.082014Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"And fuck the fat lady, it's over when all the kids sing -Tyler The Creator - Radicals",flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:47:24.655264Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,see post below. Not Kanye. Everyone reporting it isn't,decrease,increase,False,True,324.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T00:55:17.123141Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Should have trusted myself... I thought about borrowing money to buy 'no' shares 2 days ago... ez 3x,flip,increase,False,True,1846.3537,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-27T20:32:49.753527Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I am doubling my bet if it reaches sub 50 cents lets go,decrease,increase,False,True,70.7979,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T15:41:49.431903Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I'm going to be buying the top forever.,increase,decrease,False,True,11.15,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T04:43:37.798679Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Let's hope for a ghetto uprising at the Donda Schools,increase,hold,False,True,83.5753,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T12:02:22.673177Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,All this is based on 1 article from Coindesk and Coindesk's source is this very weird email. Time will indeed tell if we,flip,decrease,False,True,3683.2722,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T07:33:45.992679Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He might want to punish the Y holders but its still risky af,flip,decrease,False,True,179.7666,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T04:21:20.169493Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I want every 'no' holder to watch this video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vj2PMLbZjw,flip,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:32:41.082797Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Epic battle can start bitcoin vs the clock,increase,hold,False,True,14366.748,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T20:12:52.083408Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he's gonna launch an entire blockchain? IN 4 DAYS?,increase,increase,True,True,3524.9596,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:00:40.779652Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Idk, 37 hours is enough for a big change....",hold,decrease,False,True,1959.4883,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:43:45.359953Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I swear..... I will destory them in person if i ever se them,hold,hold,True,True,4116.9017,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-02T00:39:04.199436Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,First of all how did you come across that website in the first place ?,increase,hold,False,True,4695.2333,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T16:07:03.133916Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,lol 'yes' whales creating fake scam coins to save their ass,flip,hold,False,True,1824.1137,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:17:51.216861Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Sam kassler is selling yes on his own article,flip,flip,True,True,3729.6222,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:55:41.149736Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,anything can happen but like hella low chance of that,decrease,hold,False,True,69.7712,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T12:02:02.194673Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,There's just one issue. One hour in this parallel Ye-verse is like living 7 years in normie muggle land.,hold,hold,True,True,30336.6707,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T16:31:11.532259Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"even he sell now, he's still gonna earn loads",hold,hold,True,True,1959.4883,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T15:07:34.073914Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yea i mean we saw some of the Y users sell at each of these pumps,increase,hold,False,True,5981.1562,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T12:25:37.564085Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BTC needs to reach 94,000 for that to happen",flip,hold,False,True,11463.7462,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T11:50:33.432409Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,I like when things are certain,hold,increase,False,True,503.42,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T12:16:54.853311Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,BECAUSE Maybe he post DOTS today like on Jan 19 on Sunday but wont buy on Monday he on Monday 20 JAN again posted dots,increase,hold,False,True,388.0197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T11:06:52.959152Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,you can sell your shares by limit order,decrease,decrease,True,True,538.7863,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T17:46:48.558605Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Okay, Okay, Okay, I need the price to go up. I can't take this anymore. Everyday I'm checking the price and it's dipping",decrease,decrease,True,True,477.4108,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T23:34:21.857531Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I am going to sleep boys see ya in few hours,hold,hold,True,True,5533.7285,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:46:33.542679Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"haha you're crazy man, i like you, but you're crazy",flip,hold,False,True,6665.4972,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T00:34:44.926863Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",what kinda drugs r u on i need sum of that shit fr,decrease,hold,False,True,88.63,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T12:08:32.668201Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,The top no just great the account for this and one amount special for this bet. I¡¯m sorry but that¡¯s weird,hold,decrease,False,True,222.81,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:18:42.832736Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Gambling can be addictive and may result in difficulties to stop even when you know it is causing issues. Gambling is no,flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T04:41:37.193247Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I hope you are right brother and it will be like that this time,increase,hold,False,True,14366.748,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T17:49:33.905189Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Can someone explain why BowBow kept buying so many yes-shares? Why would he throw away noney like that?,hold,hold,True,True,8373.1482,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T21:48:31.604362Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Yes finally sell please so i can buy cheaper you noob. Stop believing these indian fake news,increase,decrease,False,True,4892.05,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-22T12:09:35.308434Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,you cant call it casino if its not allowing you to cash out,increase,hold,False,True,2.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:44:54.029312Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"But he's a Coindesk employee, his job is presumably to report on news, not pump and dump tokens and spread false rumors.",flip,increase,False,True,3729.6222,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T11:24:40.126928Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Yeah man I really wanna win this one,decrease,hold,False,True,3827.7687,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-05T11:01:25.381119Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,Its a human thousands of factor can happen he may still bought and can delay announcement for thousands of reason . Gamb,increase,increase,True,True,9.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T20:53:53.564372Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is equivalent to a short squeeze.... 'yes' holders gotta cover or else its going to ZERO,flip,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T04:19:32.745714Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i cancelled the sell order now.,flip,decrease,False,True,2834.9686,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:37:40.421927Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,THE JEWS SENT A SPOOFED EMAIL TO A RETARDED COINDESK EMPLOYEE. RIP JUSTICE.,flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T15:02:07.959974Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are too serious, man, chill out",decrease,hold,False,True,1034.999,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-11T00:39:36.897245Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,Unfortunately I cannot sell my house to bet on this. Otherwise I would. Easy money here.,decrease,increase,False,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-19T16:13:05.276472Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Okay brother good luck, i just asking, good for you will buy.",increase,hold,False,True,152.02,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:08:23.802679Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yo surely tip like $1 so i can buy another couple no,hold,hold,True,True,1.7352,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T07:17:20.687428Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"There are no time zones you retard, everything happens at the same time, lol",flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +565921,2025-07-28T08:47:15.566346Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"He posts on Mondays, 1.5hrs before markets open, if they bought the week before. Wait 3.5h more for his post.",hold,hold,True,True,263.3312,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T13:36:39.191923Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Man stop the cope. Nobody living paycheck to paycheck is dumping their salaries into something that has doubled in the p,increase,increase,True,True,24.5979,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:56:56.351321Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"For the record, I would buy swastika coin",decrease,hold,False,True,351.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:54:59.079722Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think I'm gna pick up more No like a degenerate ??,decrease,increase,False,True,77.65,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T20:59:39.249914Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"IF YOU'RE A SAM KESSLER FAN, FUCK YOU TOO",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-07T16:15:34.270077Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",110000 easy. trump inaugeration will make it pump,hold,increase,False,True,19.99,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T10:30:00.412764Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I want to donate some money to the polymarkets charity,increase,hold,False,True,44.01,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T23:33:41.383533Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Data gathering websites say it's Chris McKinney, which one is it?",flip,hold,False,True,3729.6222,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T06:32:02.456244Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You're conflating me making money off of racist whites (AfD) and you defending white people.,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T06:29:57.554988Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I would've voted for her but shes mid asf get standards bro,increase,hold,False,True,67.2177,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T18:57:01.646844Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,every mstr convert in 2024 was greenshoed and oversubscribed beyond the green shoe by an average of 27%. Expect close to,hold,increase,False,True,2612.9247,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:59:26.560644Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yep nothing at 6, Kessler scammed you",flip,hold,False,True,15745.6369,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T14:54:48.856814Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",im so fucked. I dont want to work at mcdonalds again :(,decrease,decrease,True,True,5545.8165,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +517082,2025-01-20T10:34:15.061172Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I think 120k no is pretty good also.,hold,hold,True,True,1681.722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T03:04:34.269921Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Tokens are usually launched on Friday,flip,hold,False,True,39.5181,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-23T18:00:50.740759Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BTC will never hit $100k by the end of November, 'maybe' it will be able to do so after Trump comes.. there is a big wal",decrease,increase,False,True,65.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T19:09:09.491932Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,At this point there is no $YZY anymore lol,flip,increase,False,True,179.7666,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T01:37:08.247616Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,MARKETS ARNET CLOSED RETARDS. Binance and Coinbase are by far the biggest volume and open 24hrs. Do yourself a favor and,increase,hold,False,True,144.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T21:31:00.321362Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Just checking in. Anything substantial happen? I see we going upppp,flip,hold,False,True,1824.1137,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-21T20:35:39.176061Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",I hate crypto my i alredy lost 3 $,hold,decrease,False,True,23.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T14:59:49.151579Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Guwop is the biggest dork on this platform,hold,hold,True,True,5533.7285,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-10T08:06:14.019309Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Time is up, and MicroStrategy didn't buy any Bitcoin. Why is the result 'YES'? Is this a scam???",increase,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:41:18.653474Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I just called him, he is gonna sell if it reaches 98k",decrease,decrease,True,True,408.6401,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T20:11:21.602919Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,At this point nothing will move without a credible/scam update.,hold,hold,True,True,4264.0838,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:54:09.370829Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He said he liked that the ukraine war was happening because he liked so see whites dying,hold,hold,True,True,4526.4535,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T11:09:40.867066Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If he launch a coin fuk it let¡¯s gamble again on his coin to cover the lost,decrease,flip,False,True,772.9,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:50:57.139706Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,We both are on the same boat one begger can't belittle other,increase,hold,False,True,15.3772,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:05:04.272783Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,As far as I can see a paid article means jack shit,increase,increase,True,True,714.5454,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-04T19:23:55.342644Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,@heemeyer bro is the michael saylor,increase,hold,False,True,18.91,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:57:58.783559Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Inteview with Ye ?? who even is this guy,decrease,hold,False,True,104056.5858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T20:56:00.176949Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Sitting comfy, hold the line. We aint cashing out until payday.",hold,increase,False,True,7427.9986,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T22:40:00.970302Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Bro this situation is only second time and we don¡¯t have enough data . No is more confident coz of Jan 19 and 20,decrease,decrease,True,True,5123.5971,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T15:45:18.045175Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Man, it looks like we're not in a good place, this time he tweeted ahead of time suggesting a buy",hold,flip,False,True,110.4,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T09:23:10.045281Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"A guy just killed himself on livestream after getting rugpulled, SAD",hold,decrease,False,True,4444.2502,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T13:14:35.243999Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,I¡¯m selling my NOs at 97c let me know if anyone up to buy .. I¡¯ll set the limit order,decrease,decrease,True,True,3827.7687,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T15:06:24.167032Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i heard about Polymarket a few weeks ago and i kept watching what is this all about. i decided tonmake an account to tes,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T15:06:59.941247Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,My man had the balls to hold in to his NO position. Congrats!,decrease,increase,False,True,1208.5762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-27T06:56:52.535396Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This ""black person"" believes it's ridiculous to be ""conspiracy minded"" as a ""black person"" in the United States LOL, he'",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T07:54:38.642482Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Good news, cup and handle on 4h invalidated, wasn't enough volume...",increase,decrease,False,True,14366.748,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T02:50:11.877252Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I want to buy more but also don¡¯t want to top blast,flip,decrease,False,True,273.5393,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539966,2025-05-03T09:31:05.926444Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Then why didn't you buy any ""NO""???",increase,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:12:31.652031Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"I know you lost several thousand, but why not put $100-200 more into a NO. If it lands you get some money back, if yes y",increase,increase,True,True,116.77,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-28T13:33:04.498999Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"everyone's getting paid tomorrow, salary payments going into the pump machine",decrease,increase,False,True,219.4507,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T09:07:13.912854Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,LA Cabal already knows the CA and has snipers ready you are late,decrease,hold,False,True,358.86,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T21:44:11.022129Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""you telling me if you were a hermaphrodite you wouldn¡¯t stick your d*ck in your own pus*y"" - ye",flip,hold,False,True,47577.2687,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:31:02.898164Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Girlfriend wants to go to the beach.. how do I tell her?,flip,hold,False,True,424.4728,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-12-01T00:19:27.954698Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"wait when it resolves, then you claim 100% of the money. dont sell",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T22:31:07.768329Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Is there a way to get the activity feed without manual refreshing?,flip,hold,False,True,744.1664,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T15:51:49.606995Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"There are still 24 hours left, let's wait for the results",hold,hold,True,True,110.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T13:06:02.026355Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,true but bulishinsol was up 80k and didnt sell like why man,hold,decrease,False,True,0.3272,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T20:03:24.880305Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,@patmcc88 could not handle the stress lol,flip,decrease,False,True,1083.55,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-13T23:17:06.463021Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,There¡¯s $4.15B left of ATM offering of common stock.,flip,hold,False,True,403.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T15:37:36.005294Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It looks like bitcoin broke a key trendline of support... this might be an indication that a slight correction is in pla,increase,decrease,False,True,1092.2851,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T12:44:32.620682Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,When will you learn you can't win against insiders... guy works at MSTR treasury and literally mentioned it in podcast ,flip,flip,True,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T13:10:07.595991Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,clearly you didn't listen then... towards the end (hence bonus) he says how he got into MSTR/crypto and talks about losi,decrease,decrease,True,True,2.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-21T09:06:26.652802Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Yeah we will see in next 3 hours,hold,hold,True,True,2029.1785,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T13:26:41.400676Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,all guys who sold at 15 cents are now rebuying after expiriencing massive panic :),flip,increase,False,True,2029.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-26T07:38:34.148682Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Tbh it¡¯s one of the most fun bets ever cuz so many uncertain factors involved with such a hot topic with big spotlight,decrease,hold,False,True,3264.5238,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-30T17:12:44.694925Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Meanwhile probably easy NO money on ""Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?""",hold,hold,True,True,171.3146,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:58:58.554156Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,youre gonna need a time machine to get out of this one,flip,decrease,False,True,424.4728,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-25T13:36:55.381334Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,What if the no bros were the insiders all along?,decrease,hold,False,True,30336.6707,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T06:02:46.745104Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,can you guys not see the charts lol? The resistance at 99500+ is insane. And people are cashing it out at this price bef,decrease,increase,False,True,484.4449,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T09:40:27.633649Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"He clearly has no clue what he is doing. He was lucky buying crypto one day, but gives away his profits for free on poly",decrease,decrease,True,True,1608.563,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-04T16:30:58.467403Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Saylor will celebrate July 4th weekend by stacking Bitcoin.,flip,increase,False,True,184.1133,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T02:57:45.836801Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"no, it's obviously not sold, and he unfollowed the guy.",decrease,increase,False,True,47.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-20T21:26:50.518936Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"kanye new post ""there are a lot of black people who have public platforms that are not aloud fully express themselves """,flip,hold,False,True,47577.2687,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T14:43:42.746021Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bro mastered the art of buy high, sell low",hold,decrease,False,True,2499.5772,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T20:41:51.540729Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor or hasty-whip.,decrease,hold,False,True,2240.315,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T18:54:38.261025Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I hope there's a spike and all you Yesers get to sell or break even ?? best of luck!,increase,hold,False,True,52.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:03:09.418668Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This guy might have inspect element too... https://x.com/skesslr/status/1892875055563984978/photo/1,decrease,decrease,True,True,104056.5858,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T20:00:52.470489Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Saylor want to keeping hype thats what he post dots today to ppl know he will annouce but on tuesday.,hold,increase,False,True,689.7017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-10T21:38:21.760948Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,You'll figure it out eventually,increase,hold,False,True,1831.2199,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T10:04:52.327894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Scam Kessler (Coindesk): Plus, there are other reasons to be suspicious: * The team leaked this to me *by accident* (th",decrease,decrease,True,True,163.5283,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512662,2024-11-19T17:36:50.945578Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","just %12 push for me, guys... buy some more BTC",hold,increase,False,True,8937.0661,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T01:52:52.712796Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,hes also saying he loves jewish ppl ofc this nigga is high on nitrous,decrease,hold,False,True,322.1504,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T03:29:59.359476Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ITS DO OR DIE FOR ME. NO BACKING OUT NO BACKING DOWN,decrease,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T16:29:54.013319Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"yeahh I just saw the amount of buy orders around 99,500 - 100K lol",flip,flip,True,True,6.3026,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-14T21:26:40.888453Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,i finally agree with GuyWhoFcks,hold,flip,False,True,4132.6766,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T04:41:03.287367Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I don¡¯t think there are any but some people alluded to the top NO holders giving off insider vibes since this is their ,flip,decrease,False,True,184.1133,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-24T18:48:01.585661Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"We dont know how to do research traded this market 100 times, look Pipi who always wins, but no this nigga come today fi",increase,decrease,False,True,307.02,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-26T22:32:59.862436Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"You can do either! Take profits now, or wait and see",increase,decrease,False,True,17.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T16:38:26.895137Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"N folks are panicking and providing the exit liquidity for the Y insiders, he's saying.",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T19:27:37.355022Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"White men get the good looking women, blacks get the ugly leftovers that nobody wants",increase,hold,False,True,2434.786,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T14:40:37.579037Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The insiders thought people would see the ye tweets and buy yes, but people didn't fall for it and now they are stuck",increase,increase,True,True,3526.0437,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-23T21:47:46.289941Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,LETS FUCKING GOOOO. WE BROKE 50C,flip,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T07:36:22.673596Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,FUCK HE LAUNCHED THE CRYPTO!!!,flip,flip,True,True,500.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T04:32:46.418253Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,And way down we go Way down we go,decrease,increase,False,True,4885.32,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T21:42:35.828335Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,seeing crypto bros trying to gather a crumb of attention to themselves in his replies is so pathetic i just kinda want t,increase,hold,False,True,790.8954,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T23:43:18.092502Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"In sunday we will know, if Saylor post dot chart after 12hours from now, Yes will pump to 99c, if he post random post, N",decrease,hold,False,True,235.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-05T12:29:26.052586Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,so one day out of 5 bears has a LOT of adwantage.,flip,decrease,False,True,2218.5964,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T13:02:31.231169Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"If BowBow¡¯s holding the line, then I¡¯m right there, sword in hand. If BowBow¡¯s got a hunch, then I¡¯m following the i",decrease,increase,False,True,297.9309,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-10T04:05:34.883086Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,I see 'Yes' is high but actually it should be 'No.' Is there an incorrect result in the betting?,increase,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521634,2025-02-09T15:14:45.596909Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Fat finger order haha realised it bit late that I sold instead of buy,decrease,decrease,True,True,200.1034,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T15:53:12.711911Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"i'm probably buying more of the 500k bet, depends.",hold,decrease,False,True,2577.1509,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-04T01:05:11.955543Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,In the last bought where the Saylor get those money from ?? It's 2B$,increase,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T10:54:57.673864Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,oh boy if you get rekt again it will be so funny (sad too),hold,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-25T09:33:00.520243Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Well, we might actually be fucked",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.427,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T22:01:10.056423Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,they're a bunch of white virgins,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T12:29:07.784276Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,We are safe at 97000 before the end of the stock market.,decrease,hold,False,True,18202.8485,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T09:40:42.282725Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Here comes the pump to 40c people,decrease,increase,False,True,163.2861,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537132,2025-04-18T13:06:14.975024Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,I doubt there will be enough exit liquidity for you so you're gonna have to hold that position until the end. Good luck ,decrease,decrease,True,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-25T12:20:39.475028Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes thats a right brother i undestand that, but dots is enought to ppl leave market with profit, we all know tomorrow he",increase,hold,False,True,388.0197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552872,2025-06-21T01:36:38.241946Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,This means what? A probable purchase on monday?,increase,hold,False,True,51.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T00:56:02.011706Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Are you quoting yourself you retard,increase,hold,False,True,349.94,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T17:12:43.023814Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I can't believe I sold at fucking 50,decrease,decrease,True,True,40.4974,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T13:35:12.691321Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Hussein, aren't you the real CFO? WHAT?",flip,hold,False,True,3683.2722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +547239,2025-06-02T11:27:17.805773Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Dude saylor posting i thought it was micro strategy. Turns out its not. But big possibility that microstrstegy also purc,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-21T17:09:51.312582Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,last pump plz i wanna bet more on no,flip,increase,False,True,108.9696,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T23:27:42.368622Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"whites used and continue to use religion to oppress people, whether that's minorities, gay people, trans people, etc.",hold,hold,True,True,110.004,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T12:27:32.186758Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"LOL what a manipulation, look cocac. he still buying like a crazy and all no alts (insidrrs)",decrease,increase,False,True,882.3042,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-24T20:57:28.327198Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bro better sell and switch to No,increase,hold,False,True,493.7366,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-22T20:53:20.823129Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Old fat whales will not set foot in this gig. Ye ate them for breakfast.,hold,increase,False,True,4264.0838,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +545512,2025-05-19T15:56:57.950287Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"lol i scrolling in history, he never ever on holiday annouce buy, just one time on 19. Jan but he buy on 21. Jan because",increase,hold,False,True,152.02,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523910,2025-02-21T17:54:18.503192Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,yea but a completion post pre market would have meant they completed yesterday giving a T+1 fund settlement window. A po,hold,decrease,False,True,2603.4009,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-26T06:46:49.444828Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bro lost a brand new BMW M5 series..... Unless you're centi millionaire than that is quite a huge sum of money,flip,decrease,False,True,834.0537,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-28T22:57:41.750405Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,guys i asked kanye via ig and he said he dropping in 2 hours,increase,increase,True,True,5.6988,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512600,2024-11-29T15:22:37.035555Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I think so too, but i'm sweating. There is a lot of down presure",flip,decrease,False,True,4416.0467,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +557759,2025-07-06T14:00:51.235014Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,buying saylor yes at 50% is better than buying actual shares. easy 2x,flip,increase,False,True,2029.3279,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-03-01T01:32:47.675049Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"read the full article retard, white men are swiped on most by all races",decrease,hold,False,True,4604.9024,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532756,2025-04-06T11:18:19.178417Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,Yeah bro I have good feeling on this one,decrease,increase,False,True,3827.7687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522549,2025-02-15T14:39:24.891606Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"Why do you keep buying, are you so sure?",hold,increase,False,True,529.1775,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +522080,2025-02-24T23:21:55.905202Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"That's not true at all. Whites have always been a minority globally, google it. Only ~16% of the global population is w",flip,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..db8e401cbe31fd1ba8356244d9402e97cf51b672 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,81 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +3,0.3801923076923076,0.4000961538461538,0.019903846153846216,UP,0.8980019119807015,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,52,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.8320833333333334,0.8387499999999998,0.0066666666666663765,UP,0.9759739530706186,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.4396153846153847,0.4637307692307692,0.02411538461538454,UP,0.5346320579439316,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,13,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.8531818181818184,0.8340909090909089,-0.01909090909090949,DOWN,0.9998238392922778,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.4224038461538461,0.45182692307692324,0.029423076923077163,UP,0.8820711370260221,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,52,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0,0.594090909090909,0.5286363636363636,-0.06545454545454543,DOWN,0.9097555829685903,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,11,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.3958695652173913,0.3756521739130435,-0.020217391304347798,DOWN,0.13492975281377437,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,23,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.2597916666666667,0.20062499999999997,-0.05916666666666673,DOWN,0.9846487468795018,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,24,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.20062499999999997,0.02698214285714286,-0.1736428571428571,DOWN,0.9883792981579679,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,24,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.3602429149797571,0.1958299595141701,-0.16441295546558699,DOWN,0.39277912974969953,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,247,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.45182692307692324,0.3801923076923076,-0.07163461538461563,DOWN,0.12180480839825944,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,52,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.4124999999999999,0.7526666666666668,0.3401666666666669,UP,0.9944211994421199,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.32309716599190286,0.1203603238866397,-0.20273684210526316,DOWN,0.606622764749784,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,247,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.07035714285714287,0.1777142857142857,0.10735714285714285,UP,0.6986664126851404,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.8308333333333332,0.66,-0.17083333333333317,DOWN,0.8167413095419958,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.4615,0.374,-0.08750000000000002,DOWN,0.9694326220129709,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +21,0.6940909090909092,0.294090909090909,-0.4000000000000002,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,22,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.3095833333333333,0.2604166666666667,-0.049166666666666636,DOWN,0.9180926882916094,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,24,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.4000961538461538,0.40769230769230763,0.007596153846153808,UP,0.92055486593494,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,52,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +24,0.32695652173913053,0.3819565217391304,0.05499999999999988,UP,0.2375695070987094,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,23,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.46656250000000005,0.6733984375,0.2068359374999999,UP,0.6457909193067399,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,384,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +26,0.5796744791666667,0.6862760416666666,0.10660156249999986,UP,0.056666154931175675,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,384,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +27,0.4243243243243244,0.24000000000000005,-0.18432432432432433,DOWN,0.9198106589465338,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",37,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.8142857142857143,0.7278571428571426,-0.08642857142857163,DOWN,0.8827142422094186,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,14,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +22,0.6733984375,0.5796744791666667,-0.09372395833333325,DOWN,0.7462905249702335,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,384,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +20,0.26363636363636367,0.21959999999999996,-0.04403636363636371,DOWN,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +28,0.2271621621621622,0.2117567567567567,-0.015405405405405498,DOWN,0.30862982107629644,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",37,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +31,0.8031428571428572,0.9630714285714286,0.15992857142857142,UP,0.5425676974704935,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,7,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +23,0.5286363636363636,0.8904545454545455,0.3618181818181819,UP,4.086906670681981,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,11,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +30,0.40769230769230763,0.39211538461538453,-0.0155769230769231,DOWN,0.8560646766133998,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,52,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +32,0.8340909090909089,0.6940909090909092,-0.13999999999999968,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +25,0.8333333333333335,0.8233333333333333,-0.010000000000000231,DOWN,0.9515541131884139,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +34,0.9827083333333334,0.9929166666666668,0.010208333333333375,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +36,0.28,0.20750000000000002,-0.07250000000000001,DOWN,0.9421072868325627,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +37,0.1958299595141701,0.2168623481781376,0.021032388663967505,UP,0.47324726425505254,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,247,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +35,0.04964285714285714,0.039714285714285716,-0.009928571428571425,DOWN,1.0142750651875538,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",7,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +29,0.8356818181818183,0.8531818181818184,0.01750000000000007,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +41,0.5200000000000001,0.3645454545454545,-0.15545454545454562,DOWN,0.401941455230914,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,11,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +39,0.374,0.15550000000000003,-0.21849999999999997,DOWN,0.856017163744553,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +33,0.7220000000000001,0.9607857142857145,0.23878571428571438,UP,0.9523247515916564,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,14,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +43,0.5695,0.4615,-0.10799999999999998,DOWN,0.7063861295159823,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +40,0.9740000000000001,0.98475,0.010749999999999926,UP,0.6018697761130274,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +42,0.8125,0.79,-0.022499999999999964,DOWN,0.862240857449658,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,6,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +47,0.6440890688259109,0.3602429149797571,-0.2838461538461538,DOWN,0.6978610425721858,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,247,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +48,0.9622500000000002,0.9676428571428574,0.005392857142857199,UP,0.9991157800283534,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,14,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +49,0.79,0.7775,-0.012500000000000067,DOWN,0.9977067407219404,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +46,0.28783783783783784,0.2972972972972973,0.009459459459459474,UP,0.9601130177363004,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",37,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +45,0.3645454545454545,0.006090909090909091,-0.3584545454545454,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,11,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +51,0.5604347826086956,0.32695652173913053,-0.23347826086956508,DOWN,0.7729501736062782,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,23,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +52,0.4725,0.7405,0.26800000000000007,UP,0.8405936401780103,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",10,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +53,0.4637307692307692,0.9847692307692307,0.5210384615384616,UP,0.7603575763404575,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,13,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +55,0.1777142857142857,0.1285,-0.04921428571428571,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +54,0.1968918918918919,0.2271621621621622,0.030270270270270294,UP,0.4196343922726624,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",37,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +38,0.7405,0.5695,-0.17100000000000004,DOWN,0.7027080345991737,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",10,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +59,0.5958333333333333,0.6575000000000001,0.06166666666666676,UP,0.8584403768291684,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +56,0.33520833333333333,0.3095833333333333,-0.02562500000000001,DOWN,0.9416928240220134,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,24,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +44,0.3819565217391304,0.3958695652173913,0.01391304347826089,UP,0.5500637849244212,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,23,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +61,0.6575000000000001,0.7783333333333333,0.12083333333333324,UP,0.9029807001649741,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,6,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +57,0.9216666666666667,0.9945,0.0728333333333333,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +63,0.39211538461538453,0.3411538461538462,-0.050961538461538336,DOWN,0.47962417546632746,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,52,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +66,0.9945,0.9887500000000001,-0.005749999999999922,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +67,0.39054687500000007,0.18334635416666667,-0.2072005208333334,DOWN,1.024939946194621,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,384,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +64,0.9326428571428572,0.9420000000000001,0.009357142857142842,UP,0.2491155797903959,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +50,0.38458333333333333,0.27770833333333333,-0.106875,DOWN,0.9019683121533997,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,24,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +68,0.84375,0.9827083333333334,0.1389583333333334,UP,0.49407046015491607,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +72,0.20863636363636362,0.26363636363636367,0.05500000000000005,UP,0.7241974720970683,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +71,0.27770833333333333,0.33520833333333333,0.057499999999999996,UP,0.7078032433959761,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,24,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +69,0.007,0.01225,0.00525,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +65,0.1203603238866397,0.0232289156626506,-0.0971314082239891,DOWN,0.9283546272171335,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,247,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +73,0.7775,0.8308333333333332,0.05333333333333323,UP,0.9261548334002497,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +70,0.7230769230769231,0.4396153846153847,-0.2834615384615384,DOWN,0.9444121393365453,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,13,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +58,0.6862760416666666,0.61921875,-0.06705729166666652,DOWN,0.7990313685362571,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,384,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +74,0.5406521739130435,0.45173913043478264,-0.0889130434782609,DOWN,0.14461472226251534,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,23,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +75,0.61921875,0.39054687500000007,-0.22867187499999997,DOWN,1.5907559936672822,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,384,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +77,0.45173913043478264,0.5604347826086956,0.10869565217391297,UP,0.16572125833129595,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,23,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +62,0.9385,0.9326428571428572,-0.005857142857142783,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,7,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +78,0.2972972972972973,0.1968918918918919,-0.1004054054054054,DOWN,0.7821696292634709,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",37,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +79,0.8233333333333333,0.7658333333333333,-0.057499999999999996,DOWN,0.4164089250198547,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +76,0.66,0.28,-0.38,DOWN,0.46736397002520513,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +60,0.9355454545454546,0.9893636363636363,0.053818181818181765,UP,1.014880069844282,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,11,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9faa6411db52396b487921672f1fb50548720a0c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,81 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.47,0.40479166666666666,-0.06520833333333331,DOWN,0.9187674311553979,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,3,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.7775,0.9860999999999999,0.2085999999999999,UP,0.48003060303483347,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,25,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.37857142857142856,0.523125,0.1445535714285714,UP,0.6434555564340376,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.8322727272727274,0.8375,0.005227272727272636,UP,0.9736030590847415,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,11,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.9705909090909092,0.9852000000000001,0.014609090909090905,UP,1.0136025880493367,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,11,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.9450925925925927,0.9869999999999999,0.04190740740740717,UP,0.6374457782438047,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,27,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.9648999999999999,0.9583333333333334,-0.0065666666666664986,DOWN,0.1485379022243856,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.5916666666666667,0.5335416666666667,-0.05812499999999998,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,3,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.5355555555555555,0.22583333333333336,-0.3097222222222221,DOWN,0.9696015599850502,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,99,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.7917500000000001,0.7454166666666667,-0.04633333333333334,DOWN,0.4025855862403268,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,20,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.3252941176470589,0.36916666666666664,0.04387254901960774,UP,0.9950721008319131,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,17,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.32076923076923075,0.23802083333333335,-0.0827483974358974,DOWN,0.9015431334708889,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",13,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.630129811996419,0.3988541666666667,-0.23127564532975237,DOWN,0.5938711973649154,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,1117,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.545625,0.4419444444444445,-0.10368055555555555,DOWN,0.953184627780365,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.4114580265095729,0.13791666666666666,-0.2735413598429063,DOWN,0.5307719677187008,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,679,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.16249999999999998,0.2270833333333333,0.06458333333333333,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,2,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.26125,0.24291666666666667,-0.018333333333333313,DOWN,0.9898429839307412,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,40,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +20,0.585,0.57875,-0.006249999999999978,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +22,0.98375,0.9918333333333335,0.008083333333333442,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,14,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +21,0.905,0.9251875000000002,0.020187500000000136,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,2,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +23,0.44000000000000006,0.4502083333333333,0.010208333333333264,UP,0.8772674380100913,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,10,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +24,0.8620000000000001,0.8802916666666668,0.018291666666666706,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,5,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.4358823529411765,0.16,-0.27588235294117647,DOWN,0.9733240782962093,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",17,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +25,0.8323529411764705,0.7452083333333333,-0.08714460784313727,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,17,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +26,0.785,0.8150000000000001,0.030000000000000027,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,2,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.4573333333333333,0.48104166666666665,0.02370833333333333,UP,0.3310552857610006,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,15,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +29,0.8049999999999999,0.8235416666666667,0.01854166666666679,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,4,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.5505776892430279,0.22791666666666668,-0.3226610225763612,DOWN,0.8096756154032106,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,251,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +31,0.27699999999999997,0.09552083333333333,-0.18147916666666664,DOWN,0.4286896219942089,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",20,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +34,0.5944871794871793,0.028088235294117653,-0.5663989441930617,DOWN,0.9207113831290207,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,39,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +30,0.036,0.029972222222222226,-0.006027777777777771,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",4,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +27,0.866,0.8810416666666666,0.01504166666666662,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,5,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +35,0.1911290322580646,0.2584375,0.06730846774193538,UP,0.23759533880046932,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",31,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +32,0.8545,0.9724375,0.11793749999999992,UP,0.49093952619432635,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +28,0.8383333333333333,0.84375,0.005416666666666736,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,3,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +38,0.42880952380952375,0.35083333333333333,-0.07797619047619042,DOWN,0.5096886166962479,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,21,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +36,0.8450000000000001,0.7935416666666667,-0.051458333333333384,DOWN,0.9701066662394292,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,5,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +39,0.1975,0.1775,-0.020000000000000018,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +33,0.9735,0.9886666666666666,0.01516666666666655,UP,0.8253859400955967,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,43,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +40,0.5590909090909091,0.6409722222222222,0.08188131313131308,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",11,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +43,0.227,0.18781250000000002,-0.039187499999999986,DOWN,0.9846886259840907,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",5,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +42,0.6719444444444445,0.8239583333333332,0.15201388888888878,UP,0.42017148417240463,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,18,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +44,0.28500000000000003,0.2697916666666667,-0.015208333333333324,DOWN,0.9396201807469889,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,5,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +37,0.02975,0.023076388888888886,-0.006673611111111113,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",2,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +47,0.8409565217391307,0.9796315789473684,0.1386750572082377,UP,0.108953416220502,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,23,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +46,0.30931818181818177,0.25354166666666667,-0.055776515151515105,DOWN,0.9127568034099188,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,22,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +45,0.4217441860465116,0.3535714285714286,-0.068172757475083,DOWN,0.5340221460097394,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,86,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +51,0.5003846153846154,0.5214583333333334,0.02107371794871793,UP,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,13,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +41,0.25167650531286895,0.07127777777777779,-0.18039872753509117,DOWN,0.4073714999233347,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,847,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +49,0.9325,0.9047916666666668,-0.027708333333333224,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,4,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +52,0.013416666666666667,0.03923611111111111,0.025819444444444443,UP,1.1299254526091587,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +53,0.39249999999999996,0.40791666666666665,0.01541666666666669,UP,0.31531538851480406,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +56,0.15010416666666668,0.07933333333333333,-0.07077083333333335,DOWN,3.743181585114546e-05,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,336,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +48,0.7763636363636365,0.7214583333333332,-0.054905303030303276,DOWN,0.9486613801763552,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,11,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +57,0.41724242424242425,0.39649999999999996,-0.020742424242424284,DOWN,0.2235241862380635,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,165,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +50,0.16925000000000004,0.11917499999999999,-0.05007500000000005,DOWN,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",20,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +59,0.1958974358974359,0.02315789473684211,-0.1727395411605938,DOWN,0.9916783184489754,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,39,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +62,0.395,0.4390625000000001,0.04406250000000006,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,4,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +61,0.5763643790849673,0.6447916666666665,0.06842728758169925,UP,0.676807891559944,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,612,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +54,0.6828571428571427,0.7519375,0.06908035714285732,UP,0.8974359472479035,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,14,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +58,0.8574999999999999,0.863125,0.005625000000000102,UP,0.4465102666399668,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,4,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +65,0.7882352941176469,0.7643749999999999,-0.023860294117647007,DOWN,0.9508074142094657,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,17,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +64,0.7507142857142856,0.8619374999999999,0.11122321428571436,UP,0.9441669617503181,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,7,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +66,0.24996621621621626,0.4461458333333333,0.19617961711711704,UP,0.4292069206787095,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",148,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +55,0.47000000000000003,0.23930555555555555,-0.23069444444444448,DOWN,0.7960100005102301,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +71,0.76578125,0.9621904761904762,0.19640922619047618,UP,0.9788231585554318,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,32,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +70,0.26275000000000004,0.27666666666666667,0.013916666666666633,UP,0.5617336610747528,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,20,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +60,0.795,0.7518750000000001,-0.04312499999999997,DOWN,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +67,0.3237301587301587,0.38833333333333336,0.06460317460317466,UP,0.5118533239828557,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,63,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +63,0.7291666666666666,0.514375,-0.2147916666666666,DOWN,0.8118204637982104,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +73,0.27166666666666667,0.2547916666666667,-0.016874999999999973,DOWN,0.5771517562512655,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +72,0.937125,0.9271458333333333,-0.00997916666666665,DOWN,0.9246323667503926,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,4,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +74,0.8362500000000002,0.8279166666666665,-0.008333333333333637,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +69,0.48120000000000007,0.14200000000000004,-0.33920000000000006,DOWN,0.20245675694641746,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,25,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +76,0.4318181818181817,0.30125,-0.1305681818181817,DOWN,0.5438239038303843,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",22,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +78,0.05052083333333333,0.12899999999999998,0.07847916666666666,UP,0.9424566809004526,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",24,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +68,0.84625,0.8093750000000001,-0.03687499999999988,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,4,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +75,0.8212499999999999,0.7018749999999999,-0.11937500000000001,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,4,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +79,0.8807142857142857,0.8160416666666667,-0.064672619047619,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,7,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +77,0.535,0.45208333333333334,-0.0829166666666667,DOWN,0.7606482754233128,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,17,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cab30aad8cea60b12c5c846cfdf4b0062c528f1e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,81 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +542539,2025-09-15T12:09:37.782836Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Kingk8 is someone who works at the FED and wants to make quick money¡­ Nobody bets $500,000 like that without solid info",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T11:12:13.557989Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Brooo. I forgot 1 share = $ 1. Guess if I win anything today, I am gonna tip this guy something. So pray for me. lol",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-03T23:38:23.147677Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I bought because of u so wish me luck,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-12T13:13:49.940549Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Thank you someone understands it, yes it definetely is much higher just run a EV model add 10k exposure to BTC and you w",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T14:49:14.912043Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Market anticipation feels way to high for a just ¡®we leave the door open for a september cut¡¯ . I bought some more as ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T03:53:13.815872Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"im not taking advice from anybody who lost $10k on this Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes at 21c",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T01:56:22.828961Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,if u $1 donate i will buy more 50+,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-11T12:48:49.325915Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"They came in at 1.938M vs 1.95 expected, so no.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T02:30:50.452083Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,So im right you can bet $100 on no change and make $5k . i want to bet $1k on it so bad. Ill wait till last day.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T14:06:57.881434Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"After today¡¯s revisions to the nonfarm payrolls, it really feels like the U.S. economy is tipping into the early stages",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T14:16:52.423113Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,this guy is so based he couldve dumped $2k profit,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:07:47.605306Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,he's doing $10k weeks obviously he has some sort of automated system that i would assume we don't have access to,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-29T01:10:04.934809Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Doesn't match the current price. should be 2.1c, but its 1.7 rn",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T15:08:52.820226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Mr. Drax, your analysis has likely made me close to $15k now. Alas, I have no more money to invest. As you are a wealthy",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-13T05:44:39.563822Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"You can convince yourself anything is a good bet. Objectively you¡¯re just not reading unemployment data, and inflation ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T15:25:28.751325Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Zion you have to lay off the coke. Chill baby its all golden.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-10T04:46:43.357089Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,government jobs that shouldn't exist anyway.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-10T21:24:24.851235Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Would share why? What is the reason and fact of this?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T15:04:03.973756Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"yep, when I entered this position i was fully expecting to go for the 36x or the full loss. momma aint raise no bitch!",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T20:15:02.252091Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"October pause guys were making the right argument, just applying it to the wrong month.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-29T17:36:52.937146Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Daddy i already wanna thank you for giving me 300 dollars. You want me to come over to your room tonight ?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T15:22:10.086402Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,it's a small club. and none of us ain't part of it.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-17T16:09:47.442287Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"As for a potential rate cut, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to make a 25 basis point cut in the fe",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T22:21:07.436583Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"there really is no reason to cut in my opinion, we're still far off from 2% inflation rate and there needs to be more ti",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T15:26:42.170379Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"You hedged, but you might loose $100K, if there's 50 decrease",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-26T17:50:33.474596Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Why not buy some no to no change, covers any change.",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T07:59:00.330383Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i hope ur $1 become 1k brother,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-27T09:15:29.465275Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,What happened to the stocks (pre-market)? S&P 500 technology down 5 procent,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T05:36:13.672719Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Standard Chartered revised its outlook and now expects a 50 bps cut instead of 25 bps, citing a sharp weakening in the l",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T12:38:16.238781Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Blackrock sold $1B of btc! NO CUTS TODAY,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-08T14:10:35.192424Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Was blatantly obvious no change when Powell spoke last month. After that data yesterday, it¡¯s 99c",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T12:19:01.977129Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I'm gonna withdraw all my winnings as $1 notes and use it as TP to wipe my A$$,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T08:33:59.022983Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,idiots holding no change dumbasses look at this burn your money President Trump expects the Federal Reserve to deliver ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-08-18T17:03:30.528387Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I¡¯ve read quite a few FOMC speeches where they explain their thought process. I guess I missed the one where they talke,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-17T17:41:11.702397Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Probability of a FED cut has decreased from 92% this Friday to around 84% today. Weird that this market hasn't followed,",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-17T04:07:00.901764Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,True.. I think this Fed decision thing has become too political now. Anyway lets hope for the best.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T22:39:46.055094Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"However, I sold my position in the No Change. I'll come back after Sep 5 NFP and Sep 11 CPI.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T03:25:29.273475Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ask chat gbt to calculate for you with payroll revitio,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T22:02:40.306641Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,If cpi came out under 2.5 I would have dumped my no change shares. No change has a way higher chance of winning than 50 ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T16:59:06.144296Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,You have one hour to sell and make your money back at a slight loss or you will lose it all but in your case it¡¯s only ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T20:35:43.803718Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"put 5 dollars in increase, last option, and you'll get $5k if you are right. 1% chance it might happen but the gains is ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T14:20:23.397775Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Hope your $400 goes a long way brother!,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-07T17:01:46.306933Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,no change is out of the question,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-10T23:50:47.462125Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,cause I value the likelyhood of them cutting by 50bps at 10% for march and not 0.x%. And yes I could have sold it for +1,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-12T23:08:49.403056Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,well you lost your dollar its over mate,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-14T17:34:02.956133Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I love ur gambling spirit. Pls quit. For ur own health & safely.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T05:44:43.447612Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"No, look at the cme fed watch tool. It could go either way. I just took my most educated guess from being in the indus",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T01:06:27.324991Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I sold guys im sorry but inflation might delay this cut , either way I already profit thanks",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T15:16:47.866934Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"IF YOUR NAME ONLY STARTS WITH C TIP ME $6.66 TO WIN THIS BET OR LOSE ALL,I HAVE A BLACK MOLE UNDER MY TONGUE",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T09:25:52.850274Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Spiritually I¡¯m with ¡°No Change¡± gang. But things work differently.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-17T12:19:01.977129Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I'm gonna withdraw all my winnings as $1 notes and use it as TP to wipe my A$$,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-07T15:33:49.482227Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I know you will probably not read this but Freakybob died for your sins. Freakybob cares about you and wants to see you ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-24T22:11:49.692443Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,And I bought this because I thought it was undervalued (it did hit 40%...). I'm also hedging against my other positions,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T06:01:02.403401Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,9 dollar pnl.. your betting with bum change. relax..,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-08-24T22:11:49.692443Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,And I bought this because I thought it was undervalued (it did hit 40%...). I'm also hedging against my other positions,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-07T15:30:38.419288Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"And I sold 5k shares like a fool, rip",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-16T15:16:47.866934Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"IF YOUR NAME ONLY STARTS WITH C TIP ME $6.66 TO WIN THIS BET OR LOSE ALL,I HAVE A BLACK MOLE UNDER MY TONGUE",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-08T21:37:20.156439Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"List of investments banks predicting 25bps: Blackrock, Goldman, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, W",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T12:41:53.711986Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Keep getting rekt on no change, good odds tho. Gl",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T18:08:34.227745Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you had to listen to the analysts..,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T11:07:21.855092Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"I was being sarcastic here, I hold 15K of no hopefully will win",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T04:02:09.731308Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"taking public money, to make big bigger, to counter China.... ""THEY WILL OWN NOTHING & WILL BE HAPPY",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:36:27.973267Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"JustWakingUp sold 14,000 Yes for 50+ bps decrease at 8.1 $1,129 SEND IT.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T16:39:53.065564Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,@duckduck lmk when polymsrket adds o/u Gaza death count so I can put ur life savings on it,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-24T15:07:17.906306Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,96% chance it will be 25 decrease,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-17T03:35:00.376548Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"no offense, but Chat GPT ain't that reliable. lol",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-06-18T18:06:15.505464Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,get in my profile and click 'gift' button. I don't need money a lot. Just a few will really be helpful. thank you :),False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T15:24:45.831691Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"200k tokens on ""no change"" is crazy. You put $8k to win $200k. insane",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T10:47:10.198938Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"kingk8 bought 117,985 Yes for 50+ bps decrease at 25.4c ($30,000) 13m ago kingk8 bought 42,888 Yes for 50+ bps decrease",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T16:06:15.669461Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"i hate links here. CryptoScams Everywhere. @polymarket fix it. (or are you gaining from mixing some scam links here, dis",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T15:55:36.766783Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You thought Kamala was going to win and lost over $40k on that bet ¡­ sheeesh making me want to sell my $15 bet here,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-05T18:36:58.514844Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bro How come you lost only $500 while I have lost almost $30k?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-08-24T20:34:09.602525Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"I see, thank you, nothing to worry about then",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T17:44:22.114748Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I meant for no change, no idea why I bought increase lmao",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-05T13:37:33.471772Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,someone please tip me something I'm in so loss already ??????????????,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T11:14:03.812335Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,sent $ 0.88 :D and now pray for us. I am gonna tip more. lol,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-19T18:08:03.319871Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"wow, scary. only 0.25 away from losing it all",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-11T19:59:50.410022Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Somebody please ask him not to tilt. Please stop him before he does something terrible!!!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-10T16:48:11.719766Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I bought because I respect basedboi's bet. Let's ride,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T16:36:11.499979Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The past few months I have bet against The Fed holding the rate, and I lost every time. Today I change my position.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c1735e99c3e17a51752a44a5a8aeaeffdff928b9 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,81 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +542539,2025-08-22T14:49:14.912043Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Market anticipation feels way to high for a just ¡®we leave the door open for a september cut¡¯ . I bought some more as ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T12:09:37.782836Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Kingk8 is someone who works at the FED and wants to make quick money¡­ Nobody bets $500,000 like that without solid info",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-12T13:13:49.940549Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Thank you someone understands it, yes it definetely is much higher just run a EV model add 10k exposure to BTC and you w",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-03T23:38:23.147677Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I bought because of u so wish me luck,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-11T12:48:49.325915Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"They came in at 1.938M vs 1.95 expected, so no.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T01:56:22.828961Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,if u $1 donate i will buy more 50+,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T03:53:13.815872Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"im not taking advice from anybody who lost $10k on this Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes at 21c",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T11:12:13.557989Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Brooo. I forgot 1 share = $ 1. Guess if I win anything today, I am gonna tip this guy something. So pray for me. lol",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T15:08:52.820226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Mr. Drax, your analysis has likely made me close to $15k now. Alas, I have no more money to invest. As you are a wealthy",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T14:06:57.881434Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"After today¡¯s revisions to the nonfarm payrolls, it really feels like the U.S. economy is tipping into the early stages",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T15:25:28.751325Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Zion you have to lay off the coke. Chill baby its all golden.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-13T05:44:39.563822Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"You can convince yourself anything is a good bet. Objectively you¡¯re just not reading unemployment data, and inflation ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:07:47.605306Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,he's doing $10k weeks obviously he has some sort of automated system that i would assume we don't have access to,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T14:16:52.423113Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,this guy is so based he couldve dumped $2k profit,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-29T01:10:04.934809Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Doesn't match the current price. should be 2.1c, but its 1.7 rn",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T02:30:50.452083Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,So im right you can bet $100 on no change and make $5k . i want to bet $1k on it so bad. Ill wait till last day.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-29T17:36:52.937146Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Daddy i already wanna thank you for giving me 300 dollars. You want me to come over to your room tonight ?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T20:15:02.252091Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"October pause guys were making the right argument, just applying it to the wrong month.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-10T21:24:24.851235Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Would share why? What is the reason and fact of this?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-10T04:46:43.357089Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,government jobs that shouldn't exist anyway.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T22:21:07.436583Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"there really is no reason to cut in my opinion, we're still far off from 2% inflation rate and there needs to be more ti",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T15:22:10.086402Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,it's a small club. and none of us ain't part of it.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T15:04:03.973756Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"yep, when I entered this position i was fully expecting to go for the 36x or the full loss. momma aint raise no bitch!",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-17T16:09:47.442287Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"As for a potential rate cut, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to make a 25 basis point cut in the fe",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-27T09:15:29.465275Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,What happened to the stocks (pre-market)? S&P 500 technology down 5 procent,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-26T17:50:33.474596Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Why not buy some no to no change, covers any change.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T07:59:00.330383Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i hope ur $1 become 1k brother,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T15:26:42.170379Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"You hedged, but you might loose $100K, if there's 50 decrease",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T12:38:16.238781Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Blackrock sold $1B of btc! NO CUTS TODAY,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T05:36:13.672719Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Standard Chartered revised its outlook and now expects a 50 bps cut instead of 25 bps, citing a sharp weakening in the l",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-07T15:33:49.482227Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I know you will probably not read this but Freakybob died for your sins. Freakybob cares about you and wants to see you ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T08:33:59.022983Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,idiots holding no change dumbasses look at this burn your money President Trump expects the Federal Reserve to deliver ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T03:25:29.273475Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ask chat gbt to calculate for you with payroll revitio,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-17T04:07:00.901764Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,True.. I think this Fed decision thing has become too political now. Anyway lets hope for the best.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T12:19:01.977129Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I'm gonna withdraw all my winnings as $1 notes and use it as TP to wipe my A$$,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-17T17:41:11.702397Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Probability of a FED cut has decreased from 92% this Friday to around 84% today. Weird that this market hasn't followed,",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T22:39:46.055094Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"However, I sold my position in the No Change. I'll come back after Sep 5 NFP and Sep 11 CPI.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-08-18T17:03:30.528387Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I¡¯ve read quite a few FOMC speeches where they explain their thought process. I guess I missed the one where they talke,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T22:02:40.306641Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,If cpi came out under 2.5 I would have dumped my no change shares. No change has a way higher chance of winning than 50 ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-07T17:01:46.306933Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,no change is out of the question,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T14:20:23.397775Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Hope your $400 goes a long way brother!,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T16:59:06.144296Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,You have one hour to sell and make your money back at a slight loss or you will lose it all but in your case it¡¯s only ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T20:35:43.803718Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"put 5 dollars in increase, last option, and you'll get $5k if you are right. 1% chance it might happen but the gains is ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-12T23:08:49.403056Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,well you lost your dollar its over mate,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-10T23:50:47.462125Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,cause I value the likelyhood of them cutting by 50bps at 10% for march and not 0.x%. And yes I could have sold it for +1,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-08T14:10:35.192424Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Was blatantly obvious no change when Powell spoke last month. After that data yesterday, it¡¯s 99c",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T15:16:47.866934Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"IF YOUR NAME ONLY STARTS WITH C TIP ME $6.66 TO WIN THIS BET OR LOSE ALL,I HAVE A BLACK MOLE UNDER MY TONGUE",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-17T12:19:01.977129Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I'm gonna withdraw all my winnings as $1 notes and use it as TP to wipe my A$$,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T01:06:27.324991Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I sold guys im sorry but inflation might delay this cut , either way I already profit thanks",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-14T17:34:02.956133Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I love ur gambling spirit. Pls quit. For ur own health & safely.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T09:25:52.850274Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Spiritually I¡¯m with ¡°No Change¡± gang. But things work differently.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T05:44:43.447612Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"No, look at the cme fed watch tool. It could go either way. I just took my most educated guess from being in the indus",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T06:01:02.403401Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,9 dollar pnl.. your betting with bum change. relax..,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-08-24T22:11:49.692443Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,And I bought this because I thought it was undervalued (it did hit 40%...). I'm also hedging against my other positions,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-24T22:11:49.692443Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,And I bought this because I thought it was undervalued (it did hit 40%...). I'm also hedging against my other positions,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-08T21:37:20.156439Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"List of investments banks predicting 25bps: Blackrock, Goldman, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, W",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-07T15:30:38.419288Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"And I sold 5k shares like a fool, rip",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T12:41:53.711986Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Keep getting rekt on no change, good odds tho. Gl",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T18:08:34.227745Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you had to listen to the analysts..,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T04:02:09.731308Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"taking public money, to make big bigger, to counter China.... ""THEY WILL OWN NOTHING & WILL BE HAPPY",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T11:07:21.855092Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"I was being sarcastic here, I hold 15K of no hopefully will win",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-16T15:16:47.866934Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"IF YOUR NAME ONLY STARTS WITH C TIP ME $6.66 TO WIN THIS BET OR LOSE ALL,I HAVE A BLACK MOLE UNDER MY TONGUE",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-24T15:07:17.906306Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,96% chance it will be 25 decrease,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-17T03:35:00.376548Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"no offense, but Chat GPT ain't that reliable. lol",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:36:27.973267Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"JustWakingUp sold 14,000 Yes for 50+ bps decrease at 8.1 $1,129 SEND IT.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T10:47:10.198938Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"kingk8 bought 117,985 Yes for 50+ bps decrease at 25.4c ($30,000) 13m ago kingk8 bought 42,888 Yes for 50+ bps decrease",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T16:39:53.065564Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,@duckduck lmk when polymsrket adds o/u Gaza death count so I can put ur life savings on it,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-06-18T18:06:15.505464Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,get in my profile and click 'gift' button. I don't need money a lot. Just a few will really be helpful. thank you :),False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T15:24:45.831691Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"200k tokens on ""no change"" is crazy. You put $8k to win $200k. insane",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T17:44:22.114748Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I meant for no change, no idea why I bought increase lmao",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T16:06:15.669461Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"i hate links here. CryptoScams Everywhere. @polymarket fix it. (or are you gaining from mixing some scam links here, dis",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-05T18:36:58.514844Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bro How come you lost only $500 while I have lost almost $30k?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-08-24T20:34:09.602525Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"I see, thank you, nothing to worry about then",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T15:55:36.766783Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You thought Kamala was going to win and lost over $40k on that bet ¡­ sheeesh making me want to sell my $15 bet here,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T11:14:03.812335Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,sent $ 0.88 :D and now pray for us. I am gonna tip more. lol,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-10T16:48:11.719766Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I bought because I respect basedboi's bet. Let's ride,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-05T13:37:33.471772Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,someone please tip me something I'm in so loss already ??????????????,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-11T19:59:50.410022Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Somebody please ask him not to tilt. Please stop him before he does something terrible!!!,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-19T18:08:03.319871Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"wow, scary. only 0.25 away from losing it all",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T16:36:11.499979Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The past few months I have bet against The Fed holding the rate, and I lost every time. Today I change my position.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..76c1c2ec17d49b5ee8139dfaf88735737a7d9342 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,210 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +553813,2025-09-17T04:07:00.901764Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,True.. I think this Fed decision thing has become too political now. Anyway lets hope for the best.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T22:02:52.319614Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Don't worry bro ..Keep buying more ..this month is no change,YES,YES,True,True,73.74,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-07-29T12:43:19.103917Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Well visit bulletservers .net for vps domain and servers :P,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:32:11.075232Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change makes the most sense but I¡¯m switching over to 50 bip gang,YES,YES,True,True,32.8878,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-31T23:42:53.922753Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,The Sept 9 revision concerns April 2024 to March 2025 data,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T10:39:50.285172Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Probably because all your comments are fn garbage and add 0 value.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,30.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T08:44:20.680337Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Stock market is a completely irrelevant metric, labour data was weak and rates are above neutral. If the Fed holds it¡¯l",NO,NO,True,True,43.5,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T09:39:14.045689Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"So the Fed will cut into rising inflation because of political pressure, cause a crisis and then get blamed by Trump? Ma",YES,NO,False,True,2819.59,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-16T21:16:59.100218Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Oh I agree, looking for that high when he pulls another 7 digits outa thin air. Haha",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T05:25:17.954556Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,any one plesase tip me give some money as tip please i am from india bey seeing this comment who will not donate they wi,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-03T00:48:44.257977Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Anyone betting yes on ""no change"" hates money",NO,NO,True,True,436.7808,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-29T16:11:54.132068Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Give me a 7. Give me 11. Give me a 50bps cut,YES,YES,True,True,30.5,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-17T16:09:47.442287Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"As for a potential rate cut, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to make a 25 basis point cut in the fe",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-17T04:51:43.045263Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"you got a better one, zoomer broccoli head?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T17:47:56.458666Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"no jobs unwinding. USA have so much illegals, waiting to become ""employeed""... there is no real ""unemployment"". only wha",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-07T17:01:46.306933Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,no change is out of the question,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T05:44:43.447612Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"No, look at the cme fed watch tool. It could go either way. I just took my most educated guess from being in the indus",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-25T19:53:19.714361Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I think most of you will be wrong. -50 or nothing. Too late for a delicate 25,YES,NO,False,True,2709.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T13:02:35.552396Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Many activities target employment market, leading to bad numbers.",YES,NO,False,True,18.6268,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T19:07:28.158821Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,K sounds good. You know we have the interwebs to verify this is total bs right??,YES,NO,False,True,11217.9123,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T17:08:50.045145Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,He said they should cut 50 but will end up cutting 25. You lost and are panicking commenting every 2 minutes,NO,NO,True,True,9245.534,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T21:27:46.501374Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"you are the only guy here who gets it. 13th Sep Trump announced more possible Tarrifs against china, regarding the war i",YES,NO,False,True,231.9,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-14T17:34:02.956133Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I love ur gambling spirit. Pls quit. For ur own health & safely.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-06T16:59:40.961052Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,¡°A few analysts see a case for a larger half-point cut this month so rates can better catch up to job-market conditions,NO,NO,True,True,9245.534,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-22T19:10:52.505828Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,There¡¯s a couple others. Why not buy ?,NO,NO,True,True,98.6336,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-30T07:08:46.787053Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Hi can anyone tip me just a dollar, I would really appreciate it",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T06:39:02.712945Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"market will be red, powell¡¯s controlled by jews, no change is coming, i hope you bet too.",YES,YES,True,True,24213.09,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-15T12:39:29.352651Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Sadly I think there is the possibility that there will be no more rate cuts this year¡­,NO,YES,False,True,0.004,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-12T12:42:58.599937Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"BREAKING: US inflation drops to 2.8%, coming in below expectations. It's also lower than last month's of 3.0%. CUT in",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-03T16:41:25.243628Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you need to recommend it on the discord server,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.1486,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T09:42:05.539371Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Serious question.. what will happen to the market if Fed decides 25+bps increase?,YES,NO,False,True,18.77,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T02:50:58.489341Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Intern fed kingk8 has bought again 0.5 cut ! He sits on 3 millions,YES,NO,False,True,104.82,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:36:07.655164Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Ggs, couldn¡¯t even sell in time, tf is this¡­ for future reference, can you adjust slippage?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2395.1376,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-17T17:41:11.702397Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Probability of a FED cut has decreased from 92% this Friday to around 84% today. Weird that this market hasn't followed,",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-27T02:04:44.910385Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"In any case, I think the possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike is very small",NO,NO,True,True,0.5255,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T12:41:53.711986Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Keep getting rekt on no change, good odds tho. Gl",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-06T06:43:37.453809Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Exit while you can. By now, Fed would¡¯ve signaled a hold if they were about to",NO,NO,True,True,55.8,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-11T12:48:49.325915Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"They came in at 1.938M vs 1.95 expected, so no.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-10T15:57:53.524933Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,did you bet $10k on no Change? What a baller,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-05T02:19:16.789546Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I just did my first big bet on here. Am I cooked?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,14981.17,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-12T23:32:18.410883Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I know those guys are fucking retards¡­. Everyone knows it is getting cut buy 50!!!,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-10T21:24:24.851235Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Would share why? What is the reason and fact of this?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-29T17:12:56.178506Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,When is the annoucement? Didn't they already decreased ?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-29T01:10:04.934809Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Doesn't match the current price. should be 2.1c, but its 1.7 rn",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-10T04:46:43.357089Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,government jobs that shouldn't exist anyway.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-09T15:02:36.288144Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,US Job Growth Slows to Almost Zero https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-09/weak-us-jobs-data-divides-wall-str,NO,NO,True,True,18.14,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-21T21:08:25.842705Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"If they cut the system breaks, and if they don't the system breaks.",YES,NO,False,True,24.5,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T16:00:41.609778Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"That¡¯s just not how it works, you¡¯ll lose 13k",NO,NO,True,True,1273.7233,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-07-07T13:50:59.846866Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"He is going to raise, fk your calls, fk your puts.",YES,YES,True,True,20.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T15:49:56.596099Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Surprisingly weak job reports; inflation spike from tariffs was expected by the majority of economists. To be fair, I th",NO,YES,False,True,611.5,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-13T23:20:25.003925Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Fed has only cut rates twice in history in the months before an election. 1992 and 2008. I guess we'll see if this is ti,YES,NO,False,True,750.97,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-06-24T12:17:32.649314Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,jerome's in the house watch your mouth !,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:25:28.108997Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"holding hands since day 1, love you Ken - Barbie",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,530.1999,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-24T06:42:41.852597Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"i'm dumb, i have no money left, i see that buying against others will give me the highest roi among other options to sta",YES,NO,False,True,2000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-07T15:33:49.482227Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I know you will probably not read this but Freakybob died for your sins. Freakybob cares about you and wants to see you ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:47:24.800046Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,50bps surprise cut might be the one,YES,NO,False,True,133.4017,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T09:25:52.850274Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Spiritually I¡¯m with ¡°No Change¡± gang. But things work differently.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T21:03:52.032355Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,pe toti ne a ars candva trading¡­ pana cand luam doar decizii sistematice cu limita de risk,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,8.64,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-02-20T19:14:47.149255Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,FED is late to cut already. just look at truflation,YES,YES,True,True,1.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T04:02:09.731308Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"taking public money, to make big bigger, to counter China.... ""THEY WILL OWN NOTHING & WILL BE HAPPY",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-25T13:01:42.823589Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"""oh noooo the job marketttttt, lets cut""",YES,NO,False,True,17.6,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-16T11:41:55.645161Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"guys, the FED is 100% cutting, even if you dont believe me, believe what the market is pricing in on FED watch :) ALL IN",YES,NO,False,True,400.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T22:48:21.146569Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,And then blame tariffs. Trump can¡¯t fire him. Markets crash.,NO,NO,True,True,0.004,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-31T09:36:44.611768Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Let go of the struggle, it's a sure thing.",NO,YES,False,True,109.7488,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T11:30:09.748488Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Long on chaos, NO RATE CUTS TODAY",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-01T04:18:14.357255Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,There's 0% chance he'll cut 50bips. The growth number is still too hot.,YES,NO,False,True,1.05,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T12:56:12.142317Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"I wonder how much of no change, and -25bp i need to buy to appropriately hedge 1m in SPY",YES,NO,False,True,1500.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-10T04:04:01.740284Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"nah, before an increase they will sit on their ass and say ""data depenend"" and just stay flat for a month.",YES,NO,False,True,87.6839,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T21:30:07.012008Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I don't remember the topic around interest rates were so uncertain and chaotic,YES,NO,False,True,231.9,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-27T02:26:42.647509Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Scott Bessent hinted 50bps cut rates and so will it be. Everything he says comes to pass.,YES,NO,False,True,8251.4996,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:06:23.149956Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I¡¯ve just sold 50+ and bought a tiny bit of No change. Just because after CPI, odds of no change will bounce back. I wi",YES,NO,False,True,246.5048,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T18:03:36.074134Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Zion, u better get the fuck out of my sight",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,530.1999,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-19T11:03:52.502172Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Soryka 616.7K 25+ Bps Increase 0s ago 3 billion of USDT whales send to #HTX i think the pump is coming. 25 decrease is,YES,YES,True,True,2703.02,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T22:24:30.968029Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Officials acknowledged worries over higher inflation and weaker employment, but a majority of the 18 policymakers in att",NO,NO,True,True,611.5,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-01T14:40:40.413789Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Powel disappointed everyone with no rate cuts. He will disappoint again but with 50bps rate cut,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:22:37.980338Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"25 or 50, lets just say a quick prayers to ""no change"" for providing liquidity for us to bet",NO,NO,True,True,530.1999,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-10T08:55:24.742648Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Steve Englander talked about 50 Bps cut on Bloomberg tv,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T21:37:55.989585Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Thats job creation not unemployment rate. When immigration got cut down by 70% you don¡¯t need job creation level as h,YES,NO,False,True,57.208,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-08T14:10:35.192424Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Was blatantly obvious no change when Powell spoke last month. After that data yesterday, it¡¯s 99c",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T03:53:15.308942Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"winning is great, but i am worried about the bigger picture and imo anything other than no change is really bad for the ",YES,YES,True,True,919.35,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T13:13:41.127481Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,1 million less migrants needing jobs this year? The unemployment rate only dropped by.1,YES,NO,False,True,57.208,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-06T15:29:02.248649Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Waller mogged all the recession callers with their fancy indicators. Will only cut 1 time.,NO,NO,True,True,3457.6903,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-28T04:17:06.492929Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"CPI is releasing next month, What number are you talking about?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T18:28:10.589846Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I like that 25+ bps increase ??,YES,NO,False,True,5.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T03:25:29.273475Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ask chat gbt to calculate for you with payroll revitio,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T03:01:17.472367Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"No change is safest bet because in times of unprecendented market uncertainty, the Feds would prefer holding for more in",YES,YES,True,True,8421.6335,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-15T07:56:47.139803Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"It will start with 25 basis points, if the labor market or economic conditions worsen it will go 50 points. If it gets i",NO,NO,True,True,437.2754,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-11T19:59:50.410022Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Somebody please ask him not to tilt. Please stop him before he does something terrible!!!,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T00:50:33.370289Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"whats this about Trump can't fire Lisa Cook before tomorrows Fed Meeting? you kidding me, no cuts tomorrow",YES,NO,False,True,400.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T15:48:28.577664Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No fed watch odds were about 50% : 50% last year,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,27905.2166,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-02T19:34:59.129143Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,This Friday jobless data will decided if 25 or 50 basis points,NO,NO,True,True,38249.3033,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T19:40:31.066554Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Cme contracts do trillions in volume and retail isn't even allowed to trade them,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,9245.534,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T14:25:22.689774Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Insiders are all in on no change. I'm quite nervous. Never bet against insiders,NO,YES,False,True,13124.39,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:04:43.623933Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Yh of course his dad wouldn¡¯t allow him,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2016.94,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T17:26:27.493797Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"""Once jobs unwind"" - you are right, they will, but the fed is not going to frontrun anything, they are reactive not proa",YES,NO,False,True,23.0106,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T12:03:07.567975Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Did you not see the two huge revisions to the prior two months?,NO,NO,True,True,43.5,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T16:06:15.669461Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"i hate links here. CryptoScams Everywhere. @polymarket fix it. (or are you gaining from mixing some scam links here, dis",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T15:14:08.643307Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,we'll connect on discord if we win today,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,384.45,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T14:41:20.894691Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Why are we going down? Did I miss anything? My diamond hands can barely stand the heat,NO,NO,True,True,3611.523,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T14:06:57.881434Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"After today¡¯s revisions to the nonfarm payrolls, it really feels like the U.S. economy is tipping into the early stages",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T19:26:07.918786Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"25bps up to 98% on fedwatch, 50bps just 2%. Wow https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor",NO,NO,True,True,9245.534,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:51:39.571838Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change. Markets crash to take the media attention away from Charlie kirk assassination,YES,YES,True,True,1246.2045,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T18:08:34.227745Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you had to listen to the analysts..,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T06:50:27.204674Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,They're right only 88% of the time,YES,NO,False,True,407.0324,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:43:58.818872Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,... is a page we all expect to see once the rate cut hits.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-12T05:42:43.981928Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"You guys are crazy...CPI is reaching back to 3%, and even with Powell saying that his priority is get to 2%, you think h",YES,NO,False,True,31.1,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-03T12:31:59.769008Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,wow whats with the sudden flood of activity,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-25T09:03:15.121096Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Silly poor, you think the Economy is made to work for the proletariat? Get back to work.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,5.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-08T22:14:06.927127Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Broooo it¡¯s Confirmed there is Rate cut in. 15th Cash your bet,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T20:15:02.252091Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"October pause guys were making the right argument, just applying it to the wrong month.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-06-18T18:06:15.505464Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,get in my profile and click 'gift' button. I don't need money a lot. Just a few will really be helpful. thank you :),NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-02T01:43:38.530449Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It's not 71% decrease. It's 100% decrease!!!,YES,NO,False,True,46529.5043,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T19:12:39.454779Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,This is why I dont trade toss ups :D... Good I got out,NO,NO,True,True,193.475,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T15:59:04.043916Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,its cause theres only 1 day left until the decision,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T21:08:31.293503Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Is no change here in the room with us,YES,NO,False,True,439.0324,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T10:31:47.313959Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,max pain is definitely not 25bps cut look at the predictions,YES,NO,False,True,143.064,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T19:17:48.234269Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Did the same thing. Got out early. It was the right decision.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,395.166,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T13:02:06.003007Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"If they cut rates, then the DXY will drop and they will not be able to control it.",YES,NO,False,True,1039.338,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T14:51:23.652177Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Jobs data are mixed, prices are good fo 50 bps",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T15:22:10.086402Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,it's a small club. and none of us ain't part of it.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-24T15:07:17.906306Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,96% chance it will be 25 decrease,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T14:55:12.563323Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,CME back to 61% lmao. Thanks for the dip,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-08-19T20:36:34.057981Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Rate cuts would make eur/usd and xau/usd more volatile and they can't have that until Russia-Ukraine talks start properl,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T19:33:18.511838Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,so I think tmrw is also gonna be very bad numbers for Retail Sales + social instability due to unemployment + republican,YES,NO,False,True,8483.4584,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T18:44:45.306976Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Just read the entire fed minutes, the only people who want to lower rates is the two appointed by Trump.",YES,NO,False,True,2969.4,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T20:00:29.258834Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I am seriously questioning my position if @ZionLion is on my team...,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,193.475,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-05T14:02:37.621972Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"they will surely decrease them, to make Trump look better",YES,YES,True,True,3.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-08-24T20:34:09.602525Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"I see, thank you, nothing to worry about then",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-08-24T22:11:49.692443Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,And I bought this because I thought it was undervalued (it did hit 40%...). I'm also hedging against my other positions,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T18:17:13.328503Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Ask GPT about the character of the voters, you might be surprised, only tomorrow's figures will give a vision of the fut",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1200.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-14T03:49:42.436505Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Doesn¡¯t matter, that¡¯s effectively equivalent to the market resolving itself",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,196.8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T20:20:56.615944Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It's gonna bet a trial balloon cut just to appease the market in guise of supporting the labor market and it's gonna be ,YES,NO,False,True,439.0324,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T01:25:21.599278Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,All-in he won't cut! If so we riot lol,YES,NO,False,True,5.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-12T23:08:49.403056Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,well you lost your dollar its over mate,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T16:39:53.065564Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,@duckduck lmk when polymsrket adds o/u Gaza death count so I can put ur life savings on it,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-08T06:08:53.783868Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Have u heard the fed speeches lmao,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:24:30.703029Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,most likely yeah but there's no info on it yet bro,YES,YES,True,True,32.6055,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:49:36.459208Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,JP won¡¯t cut into the slightest stickiness of inflation. Go look at what happened February 2025 and ask Chat GPT to ana,YES,NO,False,True,5865.1609,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-16T04:54:51.001418Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,The fedwatch is pretty sentimental so can't really trust it,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1067.7358,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-06-26T07:01:58.475989Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,If u got dry powder 3ish weeks at 1.5% 2.25% ish per month 27% ish annualized,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,5.35,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-27T02:02:45.978836Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I'm sure there will be a rate cut,NO,NO,True,True,0.5255,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-17T12:19:01.977129Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I'm gonna withdraw all my winnings as $1 notes and use it as TP to wipe my A$$,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T05:36:13.672719Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Standard Chartered revised its outlook and now expects a 50 bps cut instead of 25 bps, citing a sharp weakening in the l",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T10:47:10.198938Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"kingk8 bought 117,985 Yes for 50+ bps decrease at 25.4c ($30,000) 13m ago kingk8 bought 42,888 Yes for 50+ bps decrease",YES,NO,False,True,8251.4996,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-08-18T17:03:30.528387Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I¡¯ve read quite a few FOMC speeches where they explain their thought process. I guess I missed the one where they talke,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-06T15:29:20.565738Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Nick Timiraos, the fed whisperer who gets leaks from within the federal reserve debunked a 50bps cut this morning and gu",NO,NO,True,True,9245.534,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-17T03:35:00.376548Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"no offense, but Chat GPT ain't that reliable. lol",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-12T13:33:21.177074Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,1:100 odds of no change? Seems to be too much uncertainty currently to not have a small chance of happening.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-30T17:02:53.254229Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,25+ no increase is the sasfest bet,NO,NO,True,True,0.1078,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-28T06:32:28.463049Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,im back for another round of fed decisions roulette guys,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-26T17:45:04.946535Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"The Trump game is a new game, you will realise soon enough",YES,NO,False,True,0.0235,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T12:09:37.782836Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Kingk8 is someone who works at the FED and wants to make quick money¡­ Nobody bets $500,000 like that without solid info",YES,YES,True,True,230.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-11T15:20:01.024652Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,CPI is estimated above last month https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733,YES,NO,False,True,25647.0939,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T09:52:05.456173Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,hes a little indian scammer begging on polymarket,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,143.064,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:43:03.706226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"BREAKING: Federal reserve holds rates steady, aims for October cuts",NO,NO,True,True,13124.39,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T18:01:58.387404Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"25v50 odds are fair, but no change is way too cheap after powell¡¯s Jackson hole",NO,NO,True,True,1273.7233,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-27T03:22:13.738443Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,no way the decrease 50+ bps. free money there,NO,NO,True,True,2.6687,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T02:07:39.250523Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"There will be a cut 100%. How much is still a toss up, but ill hold my bet. May the victor go the spoils.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-08-14T18:38:39.644786Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,can someone propose phantom builder daily revenue larger than 200k market. It reached 220k today. Btw. it is still at 75,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-31T02:31:15.022334Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Inflation report says down. The fed won¡¯t rock the boat. No bps incoming for .95 cents in the dollar.. uh yes please! ?,YES,YES,True,True,13.5,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T21:16:59.100218Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Oh I agree, looking for that high when he pulls another 7 digits outa thin air. Haha",YES,NO,False,True,57.1185,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-05T08:20:00.681426Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Better Ods with No for No Change,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T19:57:48.561239Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I was also leaning towards -50 like him but after the CPI figures and the problems with Cook I think Powell will remain ,YES,NO,False,True,1000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T11:54:19.800751Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Hello everybody! what do we got today? :),YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,5.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-26T17:50:33.474596Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Why not buy some no to no change, covers any change.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-17T23:51:32.779912Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,How are you so sure? Thats a horrible return for a 1M investment,YES,NO,False,True,10.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-26T12:09:24.242584Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,For the past few months it has remained steady so why is it a decreasing cycle :),NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T16:55:39.167661Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"It's the numbers at this point, not trump",NO,NO,True,True,930.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-13T05:44:39.563822Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"You can convince yourself anything is a good bet. Objectively you¡¯re just not reading unemployment data, and inflation ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-23T20:25:21.271136Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Trump said he needs a giant rate cut, so easy 50+",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-16T06:33:47.587722Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,yeah and you can only bet on this once so it¡¯s a stupid bet,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T15:56:51.870784Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Just gonna watch quietly as ""No Change"" slowly creeps up in value as people realize Jerome just pulled the most coach sp",YES,YES,True,True,234.96,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-30T12:39:52.568001Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Hahah what did I tell you giys?? Taye cit incoming,YES,NO,False,True,5661.5292,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T10:35:01.614107Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Niggq do you know what sticky means,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,539.725,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-07-26T19:30:06.022955Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Throw it in the bin next time, same thing",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-06T16:55:27.180808Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No he released an article this morning on September 6th outlining exactly why they won¡¯t be cutting 50,NO,NO,True,True,9245.534,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-23T11:22:57.233958Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"I don't know much about this, but I have some ideas",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-19T17:18:41.868876Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,i wonder if Trump ruining the economy will force FED to change policy today.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-27T16:35:54.055214Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,It at escalated to Trump vs China with the DeepSeek dump,YES,NO,False,True,0.0235,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T16:29:20.929385Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I think 25 BPS, or even 50 BPS if we got lucky, i bet no change but it's just for fun",YES,NO,False,True,702.2151,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-12T23:04:24.823429Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"fck it guys im going with 50bps no chance the fed leaves it unchanged. markets already priced in either 25 or 50, can't ",YES,NO,False,True,21.522,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T06:34:05.426201Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"no change would be pretty funny, and im here for it, lessgooo",YES,YES,True,True,814.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T13:26:10.833227Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Its kinda sad to see how you lost 40k man,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1000.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-19T18:08:03.319871Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"wow, scary. only 0.25 away from losing it all",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-29T17:36:52.937146Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Daddy i already wanna thank you for giving me 300 dollars. You want me to come over to your room tonight ?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-24T16:42:22.443724Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Of course they will follow and cut 25 bps. He's the president ! and he is right. the economy is good to afford 25 bps. W,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:29:46.242019Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,bot try to do polymarket active you know,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,239.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-13T20:59:37.165407Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bostic and Goolsbee¡¯s remarks were interesting... Shame I can't get the links to work,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1956.2241,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T15:25:28.751325Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Zion you have to lay off the coke. Chill baby its all golden.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-24T21:54:27.156569Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You seem pretty aure they¡¯re cutting then except for the PCE. Why do you hold so much of the opposite then?,YES,NO,False,True,2950.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-08T22:07:08.600488Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Something tels me that 1 to 33 ratio just is not right, everyone wants ratecuts but will they do that now? Are you so su",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T15:17:37.539683Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Fed chair Jerome powell just hinted at Fed cuts in a speech,NO,NO,True,True,3.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-05T13:37:33.471772Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,someone please tip me something I'm in so loss already ??????????????,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-08T21:37:20.156439Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"List of investments banks predicting 25bps: Blackrock, Goldman, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, W",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-27T09:15:29.465275Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,What happened to the stocks (pre-market)? S&P 500 technology down 5 procent,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T22:39:46.055094Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"However, I sold my position in the No Change. I'll come back after Sep 5 NFP and Sep 11 CPI.",NO,NO,True,True,89.489,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-22T19:45:52.640003Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Was by the sea today and saw a group of beached whales. A pod if you will,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,98.6336,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:31:33.383606Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,lol cold feet and cold fingers typing,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,530.1999,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-05T13:37:19.387821Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Come on, No change in September and then do anything you want FED",YES,NO,False,True,169.45,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-06T14:39:31.309275Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,An emergency rate cut is an admission that the Fed doesn't know what it's doing; they would never convey this kind of la,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:35:52.468651Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,it's not happening that's why. dont be desperate boi,YES,NO,False,True,384.45,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:43:39.234214Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,There will be new millionaires.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,573.8899,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-16T18:48:47.677572Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Markets are weird. 25bps was overvalued at 90% not so long ago, now its undervalued at 50%. Fed people clearly indicated",NO,NO,True,True,193.475,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-06T16:54:11.289231Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,25 is locked no matter what CPI is,NO,NO,True,True,9245.534,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T18:09:19.906926Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I just came here to say the majority of you that post are retarded.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,10002.52,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T14:27:51.234622Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you must not of heard him at his last speech when a reported asked him how about a 50 bps cut for september,YES,NO,False,True,127.7816,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T15:15:35.881409Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bruh listen to CNBC news they literally said it would happen,NO,NO,True,True,3.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:36:25.971011Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Who's gonna be the fastest to dump when it gets released in 20 min,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-08-28T04:17:06.492929Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"CPI is releasing next month, What number are you talking about?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..56b4b7787d4c9e1d1b71a3ce91ab186084f23392 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,94 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +504071,2024-09-17T18:17:27.852788Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Let me tell how tomorrow will go down.,increase,hold,False,True,995.42,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T15:47:35.066359Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Still not bet in your portfolio :P,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T18:51:08.209127Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Why did you sell 120k shares when its so obvious they're gonna cut?,decrease,decrease,True,True,29.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T02:35:09.833614Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Keep your money... ""no change"" is dead.",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T15:38:28.516214Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,More money in the no change order books than the 50 decrease¡­. The flip is coming,decrease,flip,False,True,39.1185,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T17:19:33.719847Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"50bps cut would admit defeat that they are behind the curve, especially since data today was ok. Since when does the fed",hold,increase,False,True,23.0106,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T00:49:50.030907Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Normies are wrong about anything and everything. This is no exception.,decrease,increase,False,True,673.0314,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T06:39:02.712945Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"market will be red, powell¡¯s controlled by jews, no change is coming, i hope you bet too.",increase,increase,True,True,24213.09,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T05:17:04.417551Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,says the dude holding 50bps decrease\,flip,flip,True,True,503.4982,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T15:49:56.596099Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Surprisingly weak job reports; inflation spike from tariffs was expected by the majority of economists. To be fair, I th",decrease,decrease,True,True,611.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T18:45:20.928684Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Already gambling here with peanuts. Imagine it gets political and my ?? becomes 1k ????,increase,decrease,False,True,6.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:19:53.572311Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i wish everyone a nice day and gl,hold,hold,True,True,1399.53,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T13:25:13.958014Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change has a higher chance than 50. The fed wont drop 50 they would rather do multiple 25 or 12.5 to control the r,increase,increase,True,True,77.208,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T12:07:06.854417Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,My friend are you dumb or do you not know how to read the decline of the US GDP,hold,flip,False,True,579.7251,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T19:36:28.129865Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"thaaafk i don't get how market is literally underrating 50bps by so much, there is a very big chance we get it",decrease,increase,False,True,21.522,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T14:04:48.913265Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,People realizing there will be no rate cuts this year,decrease,increase,False,True,30.4205,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-17T23:51:32.779912Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,How are you so sure? Thats a horrible return for a 1M investment,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T16:02:34.175049Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Its over? I didnt hear no bell,hold,decrease,False,True,6.8241,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T18:36:55.702079Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"If they cut we lose the bet, then run to buy gold, reality check will get to the markets, stagflation is in. It will be ",hold,increase,False,True,2819.59,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T17:11:15.145982Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bro you nuked 5K on here and try to pump up your position to cut losses - f off,increase,decrease,False,True,14.1336,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T18:49:33.083192Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,@kingk8 is propobly a crypto millionaire just betting lol,hold,hold,True,True,60.34,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T13:24:15.318698Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,What does he know that we don¡¯t know,increase,decrease,False,True,1.3158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T18:51:41.251262Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Ahh right, ofcourse, sell it right here to be safe",decrease,decrease,True,True,104.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-15T17:03:50.528666Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"if... not gonna wager much here, thats basically a casino bet here",increase,decrease,False,True,1.9544,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T15:31:59.490196Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,imagine if it was a 26bps decrease lol,hold,decrease,False,True,0.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T14:59:36.577197Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Waller, Bowman, and Miran are unlikely to be able to use market pressure to cow the rest of the FOMC into cutting. The F",increase,increase,True,True,406.9566,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T09:36:55.544645Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change: basically near 0% (not even mentioned as a serious probability). 25 bps cut: about 96% chance. 50 bps cut: ,increase,decrease,False,True,84.61,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-17T18:44:09.578268Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Trump is gonna surprise the market with a 25 bp cut,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T12:36:49.419416Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Cpi 3.1. Pce2.9. When the fed dropped rates at 3.3 cpi last year long term yields jumped up. Unemployment rate is es,increase,increase,True,True,57.208,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T20:19:05.307356Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"because its impossible to find a job. job listing boards are full of fake jobs, jobs that are available are not near by ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1331.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-12T12:50:21.796921Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,The fed will drop rates¡­. They have toooo¡­. It makes sense and the market has priced it in already!!! Tha is,hold,increase,False,True,100.1185,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T13:14:13.224959Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Don¡¯t need the jobs when you don¡¯t have the inflow of people,increase,increase,True,True,57.208,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-05T15:19:26.454179Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The bracket it for ""50+"" so you're covered for anything 50 or over. I think they'll do 50 in Sept and 25 in Oct though. ",decrease,decrease,True,True,200000.1603,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T17:23:50.012997Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,¡°Expects¡± lmao my moneys on no change,increase,increase,True,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T12:46:28.161404Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Just -0.1%, will see the CPI¡­",decrease,decrease,True,True,56294.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T22:57:34.217055Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Idk, cuz morons like me keep thinking he won¡¯t cut? ??. I think there could be an element of herd mentality at play. Tr",hold,decrease,False,True,24502.954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-28T17:17:53.502964Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Hi, I am struggling to make a bet, when I click buy, button changes to ""Bought Yes"" and firework anitmation comes, but b",decrease,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T10:41:00.559222Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Why the pump? Or just normal volatility?,increase,decrease,False,True,830.2504,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T06:33:47.587722Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,yeah and you can only bet on this once so it¡¯s a stupid bet,increase,decrease,False,True,100.04,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T15:03:16.853975Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Added back to no change gang - either fed gets death threats or worried their peepee tapes will be released and drop 50,",increase,increase,True,True,442.9178,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T12:57:42.981782Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,everyone is going to become powells victim,increase,increase,True,True,143.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T21:48:46.866497Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"yes, but I think you are overestimating the statistical importance of revision. That's one source of the data being wron",hold,hold,True,True,231.9,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T06:46:38.815626Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Now we know who is the real idiot ??,hold,decrease,False,True,6.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T19:33:02.472129Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"if fed makes the decision based on economic data, 1 lackluster job report isn't a huge deal. the almost 3% inflation is ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1749.1157,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T14:06:42.642072Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Unemployment rate went up by .1% and everyone think Powell gives a shit ?? core went up .3% in the same time frame which,decrease,increase,False,True,320.44,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-12T14:25:05.539179Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I bought more. All I have to say is... Chat GPT the scenario and circumstances of inflation/labor leading into the FOMC ,increase,increase,True,True,9034.8919,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T15:30:37.712184Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,bro i need them to push it to 1c so I can fill my omega order,increase,decrease,False,True,503.4982,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T07:45:39.271783Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,JUICE CONTROL THE WORLD THINK ABOUT IT :),increase,hold,False,True,1345.843,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-10T04:07:28.652732Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"75 bps cut coming, followed by a full 100 bps cut.",increase,increase,True,True,87.6839,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:22:37.980338Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"25 or 50, lets just say a quick prayers to ""no change"" for providing liquidity for us to bet",decrease,decrease,True,True,530.1999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T16:48:21.325487Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I am not saying it's going to happen, but odds are not that low guys",hold,decrease,False,True,115.91,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T22:24:30.968029Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Officials acknowledged worries over higher inflation and weaker employment, but a majority of the 18 policymakers in att",decrease,hold,False,True,611.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T01:14:25.410027Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,will she vote for revenge? hope so,decrease,hold,False,True,281.7219,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:44:09.348128Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"that's my point as well, right now he cannot give 50bps cut, 25bps is not enough and 0 makes sense. 50 bps next month ma",hold,increase,False,True,384.45,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-24T21:31:51.700877Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"""Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said that the chance of FED lowering 25 bps is high in the next meeting""",hold,decrease,False,True,245.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:08:49.298251Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,How much more time and where can i see it live(Rate cut not the speech),hold,decrease,False,True,115.1288,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T13:04:05.723083Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,If inflation keeps increasing and economy still work well (...). Pending 1 month to see clearlier and decide the size of,decrease,decrease,True,True,18.6268,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T19:47:29.584412Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Keep in mind I¡¯m talking about Cme FEDWatch predictor.. they predict future markets based on what the fed may do and ,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.1185,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T02:50:58.489341Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Intern fed kingk8 has bought again 0.5 cut ! He sits on 3 millions,decrease,increase,False,True,104.82,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:54:15.612719Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,okok you do intra trades! I understand,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-19T20:54:11.767629Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I am more willing to bet on the skewing of polymarket than the fedwatch tool :),hold,hold,True,True,122.16,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-31T09:36:44.611768Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Let go of the struggle, it's a sure thing.",decrease,increase,False,True,109.7488,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T14:14:41.835905Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,with consumer data no change is more likely than a 50bps cut,hold,increase,False,True,15.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-16T15:36:28.864939Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Sales good, inflation high, economy strong. Media and prediction keep focusing on rate cuts for bubble assets. If that h",decrease,decrease,True,True,4.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T13:45:52.953915Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You mean like when the Bank of England lowered rates a couple months ago and we paused again? If you think the Fed is no,increase,increase,True,True,2841.6878,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T18:04:06.417532Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,hahahahahaah i love poly for that,hold,hold,True,True,0.0012,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-03T00:48:44.257977Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Anyone betting yes on ""no change"" hates money",decrease,increase,False,True,436.7808,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-21T15:34:14.433114Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Except the odds of a cut are plummeting and I bottom ticked it. Appreciate your advice though,decrease,decrease,True,True,24502.954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T17:08:50.045145Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,He said they should cut 50 but will end up cutting 25. You lost and are panicking commenting every 2 minutes,increase,decrease,False,True,9245.534,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T02:30:36.396887Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,25bps decrease is for the chickens... pok pok pokkkkkk ??,hold,decrease,False,True,230.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T12:55:09.815369Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,With miran did powell get more strife or be tamed?,increase,decrease,False,True,49.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T18:40:17.575421Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"why? since Trump is in the office, there has been no cut, suddenly market decided because of ""low"" inflation and ""highes",hold,increase,False,True,115.91,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-14T02:11:13.788286Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"ZDOK8000 24 No Change 3s ago If this ends on the 18th, people can easily adjust their bid for whatever the official ",decrease,hold,False,True,0.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:40:06.763441Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i love this market everyone feels that they re the smart ones,hold,hold,True,True,12.3025,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-15T11:47:57.148581Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"They will cut 25 bps, jobless is bad asf, inflation is manipulate so they will reduce",hold,flip,False,True,50000.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T08:38:00.417007Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,What disaster... Nobody gives a F about it.,flip,decrease,False,True,0.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T12:03:07.567975Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Did you not see the two huge revisions to the prior two months?,decrease,decrease,True,True,43.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-17T10:31:06.516819Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Fed may cut rates sooner and faster than expected if disinflation holds up, Waller says",hold,increase,False,True,102.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T09:30:16.194995Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,labour didnt change at all in july essentially,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-12T13:20:20.573469Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,FED will look at core inflation and will not make rate cut.,decrease,increase,False,True,130.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T22:43:47.912573Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"would no chance be already priced in? that's the only reason I think it a no change won't happen, cause markets always p",decrease,decrease,True,True,27.7324,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T18:19:07.946074Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"We may see a bump on Wednesday with PPI and then on Thursday with CPI if both run hot. Otherwise, if it's cool, odds def",increase,decrease,False,True,2841.6878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-29T11:57:10.999814Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I can share my conviction with you if you want.,increase,hold,False,True,264.7229,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-27T14:20:04.365688Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,95 mil $ for +25 bps increasing. Insane!,hold,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:09:48.676749Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"NO CHANGE INCOMING, you all printing money boys",hold,increase,False,True,133.4017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T18:50:21.329884Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,lol what i just said 2hrs ago everyone sold generational bottom,increase,hold,False,True,143.064,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T19:33:18.511838Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,so I think tmrw is also gonna be very bad numbers for Retail Sales + social instability due to unemployment + republican,decrease,increase,False,True,8483.4584,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T08:58:14.511629Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Yes, you are right. but again normal people don't care about it. They are too preoccupied with X and TicToc, making stup",flip,decrease,False,True,0.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-15T15:52:55.497676Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I'm surprised this market hasn't adjusted yet...https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1824062889776361896,hold,decrease,False,True,1635.4131,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T12:32:11.394781Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"bruhh, did you not see fed watch chart? 100% rate cut, and fed never goes against it, hear me, NEVER!",hold,increase,False,True,133.4017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T03:25:44.073445Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"same, i think the ppi and cpi number will be bad, im hedging too",decrease,decrease,True,True,153.7038,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T11:45:03.493494Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"powell this powell that. powell doesn¡¯t decide it, he¡¯s just a puppet",increase,decrease,False,True,100.04,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T14:48:39.977665Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The narrative around No Change has begun. Nick Timiraos ""The Fed Whisperer"" posted this 30 minutes ago. Read his last li",decrease,increase,False,True,15481.8523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..dad1d3e98b5bf33f864f011c98e668ae14addde6 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,61 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +542539,2025-09-16T21:48:46.866497Z,"yes, but I think you are overestimating the statistical importance of revision. That's one source of the data being wron",hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-17T18:04:06.417532Z,hahahahahaah i love poly for that,hold,hold,True +504071,2024-08-31T09:36:44.611768Z,"Let go of the struggle, it's a sure thing.",decrease,hold,False +542539,2025-09-07T16:48:21.325487Z,"I am not saying it's going to happen, but odds are not that low guys",hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-05T15:19:26.454179Z,"The bracket it for ""50+"" so you're covered for anything 50 or over. I think they'll do 50 in Sept and 25 in Oct though. ",decrease,decrease,True +516008,2025-03-17T23:51:32.779912Z,How are you so sure? Thats a horrible return for a 1M investment,hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-08-20T22:24:30.968029Z,"Officials acknowledged worries over higher inflation and weaker employment, but a majority of the 18 policymakers in att",decrease,hold,False +542539,2025-09-11T12:54:15.612719Z,okok you do intra trades! I understand,hold,hold,True +504071,2024-09-17T17:19:33.719847Z,"50bps cut would admit defeat that they are behind the curve, especially since data today was ok. Since when does the fed",hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-09-10T12:46:28.161404Z,"Just -0.1%, will see the CPI¡­",decrease,decrease,True +553813,2025-09-15T11:47:57.148581Z,"They will cut 25 bps, jobless is bad asf, inflation is manipulate so they will reduce",hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-09-15T16:02:34.175049Z,Its over? I didnt hear no bell,hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-09-16T19:33:02.472129Z,"if fed makes the decision based on economic data, 1 lackluster job report isn't a huge deal. the almost 3% inflation is ",decrease,hold,False +542539,2025-09-15T19:47:29.584412Z,Keep in mind I¡¯m talking about Cme FEDWatch predictor.. they predict future markets based on what the fed may do and ,decrease,decrease,True +516008,2025-01-17T10:31:06.516819Z,"Fed may cut rates sooner and faster than expected if disinflation holds up, Waller says",hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-16T14:48:39.977665Z,"The narrative around No Change has begun. Nick Timiraos ""The Fed Whisperer"" posted this 30 minutes ago. Read his last li",decrease,hold,False +542539,2025-09-16T18:49:33.083192Z,@kingk8 is propobly a crypto millionaire just betting lol,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-17T17:40:06.763441Z,i love this market everyone feels that they re the smart ones,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-08-20T15:49:56.596099Z,"Surprisingly weak job reports; inflation spike from tariffs was expected by the majority of economists. To be fair, I th",decrease,decrease,True +542539,2025-09-11T12:19:53.572311Z,i wish everyone a nice day and gl,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-08-12T13:20:20.573469Z,FED will look at core inflation and will not make rate cut.,decrease,hold,False +504071,2024-09-03T00:48:44.257977Z,"Anyone betting yes on ""no change"" hates money",decrease,decrease,True +542539,2025-09-17T17:08:49.298251Z,How much more time and where can i see it live(Rate cut not the speech),hold,hold,True +553813,2025-09-16T15:36:28.864939Z,"Sales good, inflation high, economy strong. Media and prediction keep focusing on rate cuts for bubble assets. If that h",decrease,decrease,True +542539,2025-09-07T18:40:17.575421Z,"why? since Trump is in the office, there has been no cut, suddenly market decided because of ""low"" inflation and ""highes",hold,hold,True +504071,2024-08-19T20:54:11.767629Z,I am more willing to bet on the skewing of polymarket than the fedwatch tool :),hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-09-14T06:46:38.815626Z,Now we know who is the real idiot ??,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-16T15:38:28.516214Z,More money in the no change order books than the 50 decrease¡­. The flip is coming,decrease,hold,False +542539,2025-09-15T02:30:36.396887Z,25bps decrease is for the chickens... pok pok pokkkkkk ??,hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-08-22T14:04:48.913265Z,People realizing there will be no rate cuts this year,decrease,hold,False +542539,2025-09-15T19:33:18.511838Z,so I think tmrw is also gonna be very bad numbers for Retail Sales + social instability due to unemployment + republican,decrease,decrease,True +542539,2025-08-21T15:34:14.433114Z,Except the odds of a cut are plummeting and I bottom ticked it. Appreciate your advice though,decrease,decrease,True +542539,2025-09-17T12:07:06.854417Z,My friend are you dumb or do you not know how to read the decline of the US GDP,hold,decrease,False +516008,2025-03-17T18:44:09.578268Z,Trump is gonna surprise the market with a 25 bp cut,hold,decrease,False +553813,2025-10-27T14:20:04.365688Z,95 mil $ for +25 bps increasing. Insane!,hold,decrease,False +504071,2024-09-14T02:11:13.788286Z,"ZDOK8000 24 No Change 3s ago If this ends on the 18th, people can easily adjust their bid for whatever the official ",decrease,hold,False +504071,2024-08-15T15:52:55.497676Z,I'm surprised this market hasn't adjusted yet...https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1824062889776361896,hold,decrease,False +504071,2024-09-18T15:31:59.490196Z,imagine if it was a 26bps decrease lol,hold,decrease,False +553813,2025-10-28T17:17:53.502964Z,"Hi, I am struggling to make a bet, when I click buy, button changes to ""Bought Yes"" and firework anitmation comes, but b",decrease,decrease,True +504071,2024-09-17T00:49:50.030907Z,Normies are wrong about anything and everything. This is no exception.,decrease,hold,False +542539,2025-09-16T18:51:41.251262Z,"Ahh right, ofcourse, sell it right here to be safe",decrease,decrease,True +542539,2025-09-11T13:04:05.723083Z,If inflation keeps increasing and economy still work well (...). Pending 1 month to see clearlier and decide the size of,decrease,hold,False +542539,2025-09-17T17:09:48.676749Z,"NO CHANGE INCOMING, you all printing money boys",hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-11T22:43:47.912573Z,"would no chance be already priced in? that's the only reason I think it a no change won't happen, cause markets always p",decrease,decrease,True +542539,2025-09-15T18:36:55.702079Z,"If they cut we lose the bet, then run to buy gold, reality check will get to the markets, stagflation is in. It will be ",hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-09-12T12:50:21.796921Z,The fed will drop rates¡­. They have toooo¡­. It makes sense and the market has priced it in already!!! Tha is,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-16T01:14:25.410027Z,will she vote for revenge? hope so,decrease,hold,False +542539,2025-08-14T22:57:34.217055Z,"Idk, cuz morons like me keep thinking he won¡¯t cut? ??. I think there could be an element of herd mentality at play. Tr",hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-09-10T03:25:44.073445Z,"same, i think the ppi and cpi number will be bad, im hedging too",decrease,decrease,True +504071,2024-09-18T17:22:37.980338Z,"25 or 50, lets just say a quick prayers to ""no change"" for providing liquidity for us to bet",decrease,decrease,True +542539,2025-09-14T19:36:28.129865Z,"thaaafk i don't get how market is literally underrating 50bps by so much, there is a very big chance we get it",decrease,decrease,True +542539,2025-08-20T18:51:08.209127Z,Why did you sell 120k shares when its so obvious they're gonna cut?,decrease,decrease,True +516008,2025-01-24T21:31:51.700877Z,"""Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said that the chance of FED lowering 25 bps is high in the next meeting""",hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-15T14:06:42.642072Z,Unemployment rate went up by .1% and everyone think Powell gives a shit ?? core went up .3% in the same time frame which,decrease,decrease,True +542539,2025-09-17T02:50:58.489341Z,Intern fed kingk8 has bought again 0.5 cut ! He sits on 3 millions,decrease,decrease,True +542539,2025-09-16T14:14:41.835905Z,with consumer data no change is more likely than a 50bps cut,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-08-14T12:03:07.567975Z,Did you not see the two huge revisions to the prior two months?,decrease,decrease,True +542539,2025-09-17T13:44:09.348128Z,"that's my point as well, right now he cannot give 50bps cut, 25bps is not enough and 0 makes sense. 50 bps next month ma",hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-13T12:32:11.394781Z,"bruhh, did you not see fed watch chart? 100% rate cut, and fed never goes against it, hear me, NEVER!",hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-08-14T20:19:05.307356Z,"because its impossible to find a job. job listing boards are full of fake jobs, jobs that are available are not near by ",decrease,decrease,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3e1f70b0407fcbce18bbe36c3660ab7c95884ba5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +542539,2025-09-17T18:04:06.417532Z,hahahahahaah i love poly for that,hold,hold,True +504071,2024-08-15T15:52:55.497676Z,I'm surprised this market hasn't adjusted yet...https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1824062889776361896,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-16T18:49:33.083192Z,@kingk8 is propobly a crypto millionaire just betting lol,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-15T18:36:55.702079Z,"If they cut we lose the bet, then run to buy gold, reality check will get to the markets, stagflation is in. It will be ",hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-14T05:17:04.417551Z,says the dude holding 50bps decrease\,flip,flip,True +542539,2025-09-11T12:54:15.612719Z,okok you do intra trades! I understand,hold,hold,True +504071,2024-09-18T15:31:59.490196Z,imagine if it was a 26bps decrease lol,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-13T12:32:11.394781Z,"bruhh, did you not see fed watch chart? 100% rate cut, and fed never goes against it, hear me, NEVER!",hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-17T12:07:06.854417Z,My friend are you dumb or do you not know how to read the decline of the US GDP,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-16T14:14:41.835905Z,with consumer data no change is more likely than a 50bps cut,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-07T08:38:00.417007Z,What disaster... Nobody gives a F about it.,flip,flip,True +542539,2025-09-17T17:08:49.298251Z,How much more time and where can i see it live(Rate cut not the speech),hold,hold,True +516008,2025-01-24T21:31:51.700877Z,"""Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said that the chance of FED lowering 25 bps is high in the next meeting""",hold,hold,True +553813,2025-09-15T11:47:57.148581Z,"They will cut 25 bps, jobless is bad asf, inflation is manipulate so they will reduce",hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-07T16:48:21.325487Z,"I am not saying it's going to happen, but odds are not that low guys",hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-15T16:02:34.175049Z,Its over? I didnt hear no bell,hold,hold,True +504071,2024-08-19T20:54:11.767629Z,I am more willing to bet on the skewing of polymarket than the fedwatch tool :),hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-17T17:09:48.676749Z,"NO CHANGE INCOMING, you all printing money boys",hold,flip,False +516008,2025-01-17T10:31:06.516819Z,"Fed may cut rates sooner and faster than expected if disinflation holds up, Waller says",hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-17T17:40:06.763441Z,i love this market everyone feels that they re the smart ones,hold,hold,True +504071,2024-09-17T17:19:33.719847Z,"50bps cut would admit defeat that they are behind the curve, especially since data today was ok. Since when does the fed",hold,flip,False +516008,2025-03-17T23:51:32.779912Z,How are you so sure? Thats a horrible return for a 1M investment,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-16T21:48:46.866497Z,"yes, but I think you are overestimating the statistical importance of revision. That's one source of the data being wron",hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-11T12:19:53.572311Z,i wish everyone a nice day and gl,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-07T18:40:17.575421Z,"why? since Trump is in the office, there has been no cut, suddenly market decided because of ""low"" inflation and ""highes",hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-17T13:44:09.348128Z,"that's my point as well, right now he cannot give 50bps cut, 25bps is not enough and 0 makes sense. 50 bps next month ma",hold,hold,True +542539,2025-08-14T22:57:34.217055Z,"Idk, cuz morons like me keep thinking he won¡¯t cut? ??. I think there could be an element of herd mentality at play. Tr",hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-12T12:50:21.796921Z,The fed will drop rates¡­. They have toooo¡­. It makes sense and the market has priced it in already!!! Tha is,hold,flip,False +516008,2025-03-17T18:44:09.578268Z,Trump is gonna surprise the market with a 25 bp cut,hold,hold,True +553813,2025-10-27T14:20:04.365688Z,95 mil $ for +25 bps increasing. Insane!,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-15T02:30:36.396887Z,25bps decrease is for the chickens... pok pok pokkkkkk ??,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-14T06:46:38.815626Z,Now we know who is the real idiot ??,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-07T08:58:14.511629Z,"Yes, you are right. but again normal people don't care about it. They are too preoccupied with X and TicToc, making stup",flip,hold,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1aeef16820dcbf560223099615a3a4c93dd6a318 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,93 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +542539,2025-09-05T13:51:31.260672Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"At LEAST a 25 bps is 99% coming. After jobs are revised DOWN -500k next Tuesday, they'll have to cut deeper. Powell even",decrease,increase,False,True,200000.1603,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-16T14:30:54.086229Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,You people really think Feds going to cut? Look at DXY chart¡­ if they do the dollars fucked,hold,increase,False,True,995.42,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T13:43:26.511277Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"lol this is true, it¡¯s transitory until it¡¯s an emergency. Haha",decrease,hold,False,True,100.1185,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T13:42:35.942778Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Not gonna lie this might be hard to predict. Retail sales have been going up, so rates haven¡¯t been effecting sales. ",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.1185,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T19:41:09.851232Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"It wont but the nicky leaks over the weekend point towards 50, but ideally Powell better do nothing as they accomplished",increase,decrease,False,True,2.09,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T08:38:00.417007Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,What disaster... Nobody gives a F about it.,flip,decrease,False,True,0.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-06T16:28:06.798901Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"If CPI comes in hot this Wednesday, all this gets thrown out the window.",increase,decrease,False,True,2094.6878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-28T12:02:59.951834Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,you ain't givin' me no three fiddy?,hold,hold,True,True,0.3492,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T15:49:56.596099Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Surprisingly weak job reports; inflation spike from tariffs was expected by the majority of economists. To be fair, I th",decrease,decrease,True,True,611.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T14:52:29.976537Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"yea [ppl all getting horny from a ""may"" cut kek",decrease,decrease,True,True,3.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T14:05:49.235165Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,He wanna buy your bag cheap lol,hold,decrease,False,True,8251.4996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T14:49:14.912043Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Market anticipation feels way to high for a just ¡®we leave the door open for a september cut¡¯ . I bought some more as ,increase,increase,True,True,1461.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-24T12:23:08.343103Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,lowering will mess up the JPY carry trade even more causing more damage,increase,hold,False,True,22.0295,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T19:17:48.234269Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Did the same thing. Got out early. It was the right decision.,hold,decrease,False,True,395.166,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T14:30:37.664794Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,what makes you think insiders bet on no change? so far ive only seen information on whales (e.g. kingk8) betting for the,hold,decrease,False,True,919.35,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T02:21:18.876574Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,ALERT!! 4 days before the FED¡¯s 0.5% rate cut!,increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T15:38:28.516214Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,More money in the no change order books than the 50 decrease¡­. The flip is coming,increase,flip,False,True,39.1185,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T12:11:47.206805Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Man.. you already sold off 60k shares of your 91k bet, eh? Losing conviction fast. But sure, tell us zero chance for OUR",increase,decrease,False,True,12252.8547,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T06:07:17.330084Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Dollars are sold for 3c each, interesting",hold,hold,True,True,34.54,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T16:19:50.290143Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,so I think no change now and maybe panic -50 bps in October,decrease,decrease,True,True,224.9013,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T07:46:39.546573Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,This is my first bet on polymarkets and we will win these big. Amen,increase,increase,True,True,25.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T15:17:39.908934Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,There should be a 100 bps cut! Free money for everybody to PWN the libtards and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!,increase,flip,False,True,406.9566,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T11:32:30.449933Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I mean I'm with you for no change, but ALL IN ? nah that's crazy with those odds",hold,decrease,False,True,3299.72,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T16:20:01.757514Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,You sounds like you've been hitting a meth pipe,decrease,decrease,True,True,1.063,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-28T16:54:41.975203Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Good times for a change See, the luck I've had Can make a good man turn bad So please, please, please Let me, let me, ",hold,hold,True,True,0.3492,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T15:10:19.189908Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Wait and see for august inflation data i guess,increase,decrease,False,True,1461.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T01:01:13.995765Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,The best bet is 50+ decrease because Jerome wants a no cut but labor market data and political pressure will force him t,hold,decrease,False,True,407.0324,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:42:46.118805Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,someone's placing large bets on no change 1000-8000$,hold,increase,False,True,384.45,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-03T18:50:54.433656Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,50bps in your pathetic pea minded dreams. Sad hah!,increase,increase,True,True,13.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T16:32:54.078105Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Go not to the Elves for counsel, for they will say both no and yes.",hold,hold,True,True,104.94,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T22:43:47.912573Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"would no chance be already priced in? that's the only reason I think it a no change won't happen, cause markets always p",increase,decrease,False,True,27.7324,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T15:16:47.866934Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"IF YOUR NAME ONLY STARTS WITH C TIP ME $6.66 TO WIN THIS BET OR LOSE ALL,I HAVE A BLACK MOLE UNDER MY TONGUE",increase,decrease,False,True,58.38,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T19:50:59.239149Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"the insane inflation of the last few years was due to cutting rates, this isn't some mystery it was just recently proven",hold,increase,False,True,270.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:18:58.963174Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"It don't matter, none of this matters, very soon we'll be very much unrugged.",decrease,decrease,True,True,11.56,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T12:11:03.843324Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I hope I take all of your money. Filthy animals the lot of you.,increase,increase,True,True,143.064,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T09:33:56.125347Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Lol so blackrock and standard chartered have illiterate economic takes? Sure buddy¡­ not saying 50 will or wont happen, ",decrease,decrease,True,True,2437.4508,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-16T15:36:28.864939Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Sales good, inflation high, economy strong. Media and prediction keep focusing on rate cuts for bubble assets. If that h",decrease,decrease,True,True,4.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T20:54:18.390865Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,2.9% base case for CPI starting to circulate this afternoon and reality is starting to set in for no change this month.,increase,increase,True,True,3844.1352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T15:06:15.435778Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It would be such a Jerome Powell move to have a no cut day. This dude is always late to the party. I doubt it's any diff,increase,increase,True,True,55.9999,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T20:54:02.923469Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Deep down, everybody is a commmunist.",decrease,hold,False,True,1169.2945,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T17:11:15.145982Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bro you nuked 5K on here and try to pump up your position to cut losses - f off,increase,decrease,False,True,14.1336,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T09:19:12.976688Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,many will get shaken out of their no change shares here. those who can HODL will be rewarded,increase,increase,True,True,24213.09,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T16:49:55.427034Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,powell dont bend to orange man,hold,increase,False,True,384.45,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-16T23:33:26.040588Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"The economy is strong, you all got lost in the fugazi of group think.",hold,increase,False,True,26.24,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T15:49:14.342609Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I was spoken about CPI core, if it is below expectations",decrease,decrease,True,True,56294.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T12:55:09.815369Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,With miran did powell get more strife or be tamed?,increase,decrease,False,True,49.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T13:18:12.354469Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"They didn¡¯t say they were cutting this month at all, the MARKET said they were cutting. How did that work out in Februa",increase,decrease,False,True,5865.1609,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T17:02:32.146616Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Same opinion, if everyone know something - In those cases no one knows anything.",increase,hold,False,True,49.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T10:41:00.559222Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Why the pump? Or just normal volatility?,increase,decrease,False,True,830.2504,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T16:18:11.258045Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I dont think they will mildly lower because if they do so, when SHTF, they will have to do a bigger drop to stimulate th",decrease,increase,False,True,224.9013,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T19:36:00.135462Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"very unlikely we win, but be hilarious",increase,decrease,False,True,2.09,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T23:24:16.581312Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Jobs data within fed expectations, CPI coming in hot, sticky inflation, as well as giving the middle finger to TACO... t",hold,increase,False,True,919.35,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T14:45:40.519251Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Increased ""no change"" cuz it feels like an OR OR trap where everyone assumes its 100% getting rate cut",increase,increase,True,True,221.271,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-30T17:24:28.168014Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,why fees for deposit so high? wtf,hold,decrease,False,True,6413.1674,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:57:42.828389Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Damn my man, you be a half millionaire on Sept 17 lol",hold,increase,False,True,11531.3479,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T21:16:59.100218Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Oh I agree, looking for that high when he pulls another 7 digits outa thin air. Haha",decrease,hold,False,True,57.1185,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T20:19:05.307356Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"because its impossible to find a job. job listing boards are full of fake jobs, jobs that are available are not near by ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1331.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-03T16:41:25.243628Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you need to recommend it on the discord server,hold,hold,True,True,0.1486,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T15:55:36.766783Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You thought Kamala was going to win and lost over $40k on that bet ¡­ sheeesh making me want to sell my $15 bet here,decrease,decrease,True,True,16.4731,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T12:03:07.567975Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Did you not see the two huge revisions to the prior two months?,decrease,decrease,True,True,43.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-05T15:19:26.454179Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The bracket it for ""50+"" so you're covered for anything 50 or over. I think they'll do 50 in Sept and 25 in Oct though. ",decrease,decrease,True,True,200000.1603,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T17:13:34.450596Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Sorry, but I thought these numbers were published on Tuesday?",decrease,decrease,True,True,56294.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-29T05:44:32.224096Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,You're betting on a change though?,hold,decrease,False,True,0.3492,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-02T01:43:38.530449Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It's not 71% decrease. It's 100% decrease!!!,decrease,decrease,True,True,46529.5043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T19:23:56.303375Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I wish you all the best!!!!!! Good luck!! I hope you win!!!,hold,hold,True,True,77.208,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-27T16:35:54.055214Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,It at escalated to Trump vs China with the DeepSeek dump,hold,decrease,False,True,0.0235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T10:47:10.198938Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"kingk8 bought 117,985 Yes for 50+ bps decrease at 25.4c ($30,000) 13m ago kingk8 bought 42,888 Yes for 50+ bps decrease",hold,hold,True,True,8251.4996,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-09T19:02:47.972889Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"As a gambler, I don't care about the Fed, Chairman, or any of that. The 'No change' bet has 30 times payout.Win, the pay",decrease,hold,False,True,31.6078,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T10:47:11.236732Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I would say August inflation reading will be when it really turns around (where inflation will be high if you check truf,decrease,increase,False,True,3248.8912,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-06T04:48:36.701829Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Check my trades guys tell me if i took the right trade?,hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T08:44:20.680337Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Stock market is a completely irrelevant metric, labour data was weak and rates are above neutral. If the Fed holds it¡¯l",decrease,increase,False,True,43.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:25:28.108997Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"holding hands since day 1, love you Ken - Barbie",decrease,hold,False,True,530.1999,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T18:03:36.074134Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Zion, u better get the fuck out of my sight",decrease,decrease,True,True,530.1999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-27T03:22:13.738443Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,no way the decrease 50+ bps. free money there,hold,increase,False,True,2.6687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-31T16:01:31.777794Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Not after your first comment I won¡¯t elaborate. lol Read s book.??,hold,decrease,False,True,13.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:22:37.980338Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"25 or 50, lets just say a quick prayers to ""no change"" for providing liquidity for us to bet",decrease,decrease,True,True,530.1999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:50:37.462295Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"In conclusion, inflation has not decreased since February.",hold,decrease,False,True,18.6268,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T08:58:14.511629Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Yes, you are right. but again normal people don't care about it. They are too preoccupied with X and TicToc, making stup",flip,decrease,False,True,0.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-18T11:46:02.147432Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Lmao how many times was it wrong since 2023 ? Don¡¯t make me laugh ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,9.8705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T19:36:28.129865Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"thaaafk i don't get how market is literally underrating 50bps by so much, there is a very big chance we get it",increase,increase,True,True,21.522,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T11:41:09.034453Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Going to be no change in September he¡¯s just going to repeat that time has come for monetary policy easing and will set,decrease,increase,False,True,320.44,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T12:15:28.169824Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Powell needs to realise that ppl want ENTERTAINMENT and no the gay 25bps cuts,increase,hold,False,True,185.0695,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T17:28:34.469882Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Still have core retail sale next week,hold,decrease,False,True,18.6268,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-31T02:28:28.282352Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I have run the data and it is probable for zero hike.,increase,increase,True,True,5.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T16:52:18.712581Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,@G.V what a king with such huge bet!,increase,hold,False,True,7.62,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T16:10:54.437662Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Small bet on no change and main bet on 25 decrease. Let¡¯s see if I make money or lose money :),hold,decrease,False,True,99.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T18:16:20.680444Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I hate insider traders all of the whales know whats up fuck you guys,hold,decrease,False,True,183.29,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:49:13.164798Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,The market was crashing and when he tried to dump he had a sell order in (using cashout button) but before he hit the se,increase,decrease,False,True,77.208,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-05T18:36:58.514844Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bro How come you lost only $500 while I have lost almost $30k?,decrease,decrease,True,True,42460.6984,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:48:49.325915Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"They came in at 1.938M vs 1.95 expected, so no.",hold,decrease,False,True,2395.1376,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T14:47:11.480768Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"by popular request, i¡¯ll expand on my thesis. the only thing in life greater than money? POWER. you know what a man wil",increase,increase,True,True,24213.09,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T14:06:42.642072Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Unemployment rate went up by .1% and everyone think Powell gives a shit ?? core went up .3% in the same time frame which,decrease,increase,False,True,320.44,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6e43e167222406f9766415acaa96a4ad66c3959e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,93 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +542539,2025-09-15T14:06:42.642072Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Unemployment rate went up by .1% and everyone think Powell gives a shit ?? core went up .3% in the same time frame which,decrease,increase,False,True,320.44,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T08:38:00.417007Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,What disaster... Nobody gives a F about it.,flip,decrease,False,True,0.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T19:47:29.584412Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Keep in mind I¡¯m talking about Cme FEDWatch predictor.. they predict future markets based on what the fed may do and ,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.1185,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T14:02:42.817218Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Gonna be funny as shit once he says ¡°no change in federal funding rate for September¡± ??,decrease,hold,False,True,320.44,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-21T20:50:51.387156Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,That would be good but it ain¡¯t going to happen,increase,decrease,False,True,349.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-23T06:03:39.350549Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"With inflation going up, and likely rising even more because of tariffs, there¡¯s no way they¡¯re going to cut rates. Th",hold,increase,False,True,142.94,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-29T17:42:08.550104Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I never cared about interest rates at all - until Polymarket came along.,hold,hold,True,True,2.38,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:32:11.075232Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change makes the most sense but I¡¯m switching over to 50 bip gang,increase,flip,False,True,32.8878,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-29T22:04:46.917308Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,y'all ain't gonna believe me on this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ,hold,hold,True,True,40.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T17:34:02.956133Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I love ur gambling spirit. Pls quit. For ur own health & safely.,increase,decrease,False,True,245.43,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-05T18:36:58.514844Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bro How come you lost only $500 while I have lost almost $30k?,decrease,decrease,True,True,42460.6984,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T15:55:36.766783Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You thought Kamala was going to win and lost over $40k on that bet ¡­ sheeesh making me want to sell my $15 bet here,decrease,decrease,True,True,16.4731,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T15:55:03.699589Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"exactly, got to respect that, also seen the last September surprice cut",hold,hold,True,True,93.0561,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T19:17:50.128463Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Imagine holding 25 here and not selling to get a piece of no change and 50. Imagine,hold,decrease,False,True,28.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:29:22.731148Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"resolves to ¡°Yes¡± if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps or more."" Buy again cowards",increase,increase,True,True,4.9545,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T02:21:18.876574Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,ALERT!! 4 days before the FED¡¯s 0.5% rate cut!,increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T12:57:42.981782Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,everyone is going to become powells victim,increase,increase,True,True,143.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T14:20:09.327699Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,economy is good why will uncle powell cut? lmao,decrease,increase,False,True,3.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T09:36:55.544645Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change: basically near 0% (not even mentioned as a serious probability). 25 bps cut: about 96% chance. 50 bps cut: ,increase,decrease,False,True,84.61,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T13:23:30.943114Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I agree, I see a rate cut in October. The impact of tariffs are just starting to come in and ppi being negative is suspe",increase,increase,True,True,77.208,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-28T12:02:59.951834Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,you ain't givin' me no three fiddy?,hold,hold,True,True,0.3492,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T09:13:12.091528Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Should be 0.25. 50+ is too big and not gaining enough support from the Committee. No Change is arguably much better to t,hold,decrease,False,True,6.223,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T20:17:11.025168Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,besides fed can't magically bring those jobs back. they disappeared because huge money was spent on tech to automate the,hold,hold,True,True,2.95,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T20:30:49.154118Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,what selloff? my s&p and gold charts show all time highs,increase,increase,True,True,100.04,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T15:47:35.066359Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Still not bet in your portfolio :P,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-24T11:07:48.016546Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bro does not understand how arb works lmao,hold,decrease,False,True,17.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T19:53:38.304243Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"they already acknowledge that but they say they would adopt ""wait and see"" approach in light of new sticky inflation dat",decrease,decrease,True,True,1298.7458,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T08:43:34.244446Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Buy NO CHANGE, 25+BPS INCREASE, 25+BPS DECREASE (NO), 50+BPS DECREASE and chill ??",hold,decrease,False,True,18.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T19:12:39.454779Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,This is why I dont trade toss ups :D... Good I got out,hold,decrease,False,True,193.475,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T07:45:39.271783Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,JUICE CONTROL THE WORLD THINK ABOUT IT :),increase,hold,False,True,1345.843,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T18:49:28.466621Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,2 hours in we're already bouncing from 2 to 4 my friend,increase,increase,True,True,143.064,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T05:41:23.826749Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i wish i weighed a little bit more towards no change,increase,decrease,False,True,143.064,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-18T06:00:51.458305Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,You're correct. Buying No on No Change means you're betting that there will be a change in the rates,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-10T12:19:58.144513Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Hottest country with the hottest PPI & CPI :),decrease,increase,False,True,381.8723,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-02T01:43:38.530449Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It's not 71% decrease. It's 100% decrease!!!,decrease,decrease,True,True,46529.5043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T01:35:04.221524Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Question is who WAS king8? He is gonna kill himself.,decrease,hold,False,True,57.1185,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T08:24:40.768942Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I have never seen such a good risk hedge. I only need 500 US dollars to prevent the risk of the Fed not cutting interest,decrease,decrease,True,True,454.08,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T14:22:07.861243Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Better odds - all it takes is one win with this strat and you print nicely,hold,increase,False,True,455.78,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T20:20:15.215829Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Never believe the media its all BS , believe half what you see and never believe what you hear",increase,hold,False,True,687.85,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-10T16:48:11.719766Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I bought because I respect basedboi's bet. Let's ride,increase,decrease,False,True,12.5663,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T17:23:50.012997Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,¡°Expects¡± lmao my moneys on no change,increase,increase,True,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T15:13:59.932408Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,generational entry on no change,increase,increase,True,True,19223.09,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T02:30:33.414619Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,50+bps PUMP TO 40cents+ incoming,hold,increase,False,True,8251.4996,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T16:19:50.290143Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,so I think no change now and maybe panic -50 bps in October,increase,decrease,False,True,224.9013,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-18T11:46:02.147432Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Lmao how many times was it wrong since 2023 ? Don¡¯t make me laugh ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,9.8705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-13T19:25:41.738006Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Oh wait, CME is now down to 95%. Because the other 5% IS FOR THE 50% CUT",increase,hold,False,True,49.8912,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T12:36:49.419416Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Cpi 3.1. Pce2.9. When the fed dropped rates at 3.3 cpi last year long term yields jumped up. Unemployment rate is es,increase,increase,True,True,57.208,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T09:30:16.194995Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,labour didnt change at all in july essentially,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T15:17:50.360204Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"They also said Kamala would win the election, yet here we are",increase,decrease,False,True,1461.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T15:44:05.751415Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"my thesis is long, but in short: the market is way too sure that there¡¯s going to be a 25 bps cut. one sided thinking. ",increase,increase,True,True,24213.09,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T07:23:13.767837Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"yes is dead fed already announced , most there know it will be a cut rate",hold,decrease,False,True,1429.86,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T10:35:01.614107Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Niggq do you know what sticky means,increase,hold,False,True,539.725,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-18T02:56:43.223769Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,He has significant influence But doesn¡¯t actually have any say in the decision.,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-29T05:44:32.224096Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,You're betting on a change though?,hold,decrease,False,True,0.3492,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T02:50:58.489341Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Intern fed kingk8 has bought again 0.5 cut ! He sits on 3 millions,decrease,increase,False,True,104.82,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-23T02:46:52.768083Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,fed watch is going down to 75 now,decrease,decrease,True,True,1303.6771,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T19:48:30.784841Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,that was from many months ago mainly durring bidens term. unemployment is been pretty steady.. slight uptick in past fe,decrease,hold,False,True,1749.1157,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:00:29.136357Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,my bags agree with this assessment,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-05T13:51:31.260672Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"At LEAST a 25 bps is 99% coming. After jobs are revised DOWN -500k next Tuesday, they'll have to cut deeper. Powell even",decrease,increase,False,True,200000.1603,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-21T15:34:14.433114Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Except the odds of a cut are plummeting and I bottom ticked it. Appreciate your advice though,decrease,decrease,True,True,24502.954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-09T19:02:47.972889Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"As a gambler, I don't care about the Fed, Chairman, or any of that. The 'No change' bet has 30 times payout.Win, the pay",decrease,hold,False,True,31.6078,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:11:01.031837Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,and 25bps will have 0 effect so hold the gun,hold,hold,True,True,313.721,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T16:20:01.757514Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,You sounds like you've been hitting a meth pipe,decrease,decrease,True,True,1.063,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T08:44:20.680337Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Stock market is a completely irrelevant metric, labour data was weak and rates are above neutral. If the Fed holds it¡¯l",decrease,increase,False,True,43.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T17:06:12.243312Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"it's amazing how efficient markets are, even a fed decision bet. everyone sold the 50bps cut bottom and that should tell",hold,decrease,False,True,143.064,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T12:40:02.372028Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,can you feel it already? ... no change ??????,hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T03:38:35.093058Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,no change will be the least surprising outcome,hold,hold,True,True,365.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T13:42:35.942778Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Not gonna lie this might be hard to predict. Retail sales have been going up, so rates haven¡¯t been effecting sales. ",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.1185,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T17:34:22.608009Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Trump is pushing 2 rate cuts it will happen,decrease,decrease,True,True,79565.939,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:35:52.468651Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,it's not happening that's why. dont be desperate boi,hold,flip,False,True,384.45,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T20:24:21.578281Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,right... like if your up 30%+ take 20% of that 30% and put it in the `no 25bp`,decrease,decrease,True,True,1749.1157,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:25:28.108997Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"holding hands since day 1, love you Ken - Barbie",decrease,hold,False,True,530.1999,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-13T05:45:54.988618Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,The new ChatGPT o1-preview model told me the following: Certainly! Let's recalculate ??(??¨O??) using your estimates of,hold,increase,False,True,11.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T15:49:14.342609Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I was spoken about CPI core, if it is below expectations",decrease,decrease,True,True,56294.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T15:07:56.942919Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,That¡¯s not how that works. Hahaha. I¡¯ve seen a lot of people dump money here without a clue.. my theory is he want,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.1185,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T22:48:21.146569Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,And then blame tariffs. Trump can¡¯t fire him. Markets crash.,hold,increase,False,True,0.004,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-11T15:20:01.024652Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,CPI is estimated above last month https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733,hold,decrease,False,True,25647.0939,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T14:39:02.028303Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Buying more No change this weekend. Trying to catch up to you ;),increase,increase,True,True,9034.8919,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-16T15:36:28.864939Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Sales good, inflation high, economy strong. Media and prediction keep focusing on rate cuts for bubble assets. If that h",decrease,decrease,True,True,4.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T08:58:14.511629Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Yes, you are right. but again normal people don't care about it. They are too preoccupied with X and TicToc, making stup",flip,decrease,False,True,0.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-03T18:50:54.433656Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,50bps in your pathetic pea minded dreams. Sad hah!,increase,increase,True,True,13.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T13:00:18.076084Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Powell is going to have a lot of victims GG,increase,decrease,False,True,143.08,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T14:12:49.555836Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I hope I take all of your money. Filthy animals the lot of you.,increase,increase,True,True,143.064,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T03:25:44.073445Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"same, i think the ppi and cpi number will be bad, im hedging too",hold,decrease,False,True,153.7038,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-19T03:28:02.022574Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,The Fed is pretty famous for doing absolutely nothing at all when there's a risk of a recession. Easy Yes for No Change ,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-05T15:19:26.454179Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The bracket it for ""50+"" so you're covered for anything 50 or over. I think they'll do 50 in Sept and 25 in Oct though. ",decrease,decrease,True,True,200000.1603,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T21:16:59.100218Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Oh I agree, looking for that high when he pulls another 7 digits outa thin air. Haha",decrease,hold,False,True,57.1185,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T12:55:09.815369Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,With miran did powell get more strife or be tamed?,increase,decrease,False,True,49.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-04T14:47:45.431378Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Taking 25bps decrease is stupid, you'll earn more by just holding your bags at this point :D",hold,increase,False,True,1249.74,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-25T08:53:42.009878Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change is Sept but a cut in December as a Xmas gift ;-),hold,hold,True,True,8.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:45:34.474722Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The question is 2.9 enough for them to stay? It¡¯s going up which isn¡¯t good, my money is on no change and he will",increase,decrease,False,True,77.208,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T11:50:19.236972Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Good luck. Would be real nice.,decrease,decrease,True,True,15481.8523,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..15b18aea405eafe159f4d941b190847dc89b6614 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,94 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +542539,2025-09-13T15:47:35.066359Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Still not bet in your portfolio :P,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:19:53.572311Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i wish everyone a nice day and gl,hold,hold,True,True,1399.53,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T05:17:04.417551Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,says the dude holding 50bps decrease\,flip,flip,True,True,503.4982,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T18:36:55.702079Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"If they cut we lose the bet, then run to buy gold, reality check will get to the markets, stagflation is in. It will be ",hold,increase,False,True,2819.59,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T15:49:56.596099Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Surprisingly weak job reports; inflation spike from tariffs was expected by the majority of economists. To be fair, I th",decrease,decrease,True,True,611.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T18:17:27.852788Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Let me tell how tomorrow will go down.,increase,hold,False,True,995.42,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T18:51:08.209127Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Why did you sell 120k shares when its so obvious they're gonna cut?,decrease,decrease,True,True,29.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T19:36:28.129865Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"thaaafk i don't get how market is literally underrating 50bps by so much, there is a very big chance we get it",decrease,increase,False,True,21.522,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T15:38:28.516214Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,More money in the no change order books than the 50 decrease¡­. The flip is coming,decrease,flip,False,True,39.1185,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T02:35:09.833614Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Keep your money... ""no change"" is dead.",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T18:51:41.251262Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Ahh right, ofcourse, sell it right here to be safe",decrease,decrease,True,True,104.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T16:02:34.175049Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Its over? I didnt hear no bell,hold,decrease,False,True,6.8241,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T06:39:02.712945Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"market will be red, powell¡¯s controlled by jews, no change is coming, i hope you bet too.",increase,increase,True,True,24213.09,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T17:19:33.719847Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"50bps cut would admit defeat that they are behind the curve, especially since data today was ok. Since when does the fed",hold,increase,False,True,23.0106,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T00:49:50.030907Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Normies are wrong about anything and everything. This is no exception.,decrease,increase,False,True,673.0314,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T13:24:15.318698Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,What does he know that we don¡¯t know,increase,decrease,False,True,1.3158,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T13:25:13.958014Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change has a higher chance than 50. The fed wont drop 50 they would rather do multiple 25 or 12.5 to control the r,increase,increase,True,True,77.208,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T18:45:20.928684Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Already gambling here with peanuts. Imagine it gets political and my ?? becomes 1k ????,increase,decrease,False,True,6.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T12:07:06.854417Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,My friend are you dumb or do you not know how to read the decline of the US GDP,hold,flip,False,True,579.7251,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-12T12:50:21.796921Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,The fed will drop rates¡­. They have toooo¡­. It makes sense and the market has priced it in already!!! Tha is,hold,increase,False,True,100.1185,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T17:11:15.145982Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bro you nuked 5K on here and try to pump up your position to cut losses - f off,increase,decrease,False,True,14.1336,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T12:36:49.419416Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Cpi 3.1. Pce2.9. When the fed dropped rates at 3.3 cpi last year long term yields jumped up. Unemployment rate is es,increase,increase,True,True,57.208,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-17T23:51:32.779912Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,How are you so sure? Thats a horrible return for a 1M investment,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T14:04:48.913265Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,People realizing there will be no rate cuts this year,decrease,increase,False,True,30.4205,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T21:48:46.866497Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"yes, but I think you are overestimating the statistical importance of revision. That's one source of the data being wron",hold,hold,True,True,231.9,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-05T15:19:26.454179Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The bracket it for ""50+"" so you're covered for anything 50 or over. I think they'll do 50 in Sept and 25 in Oct though. ",decrease,decrease,True,True,200000.1603,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T14:59:36.577197Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Waller, Bowman, and Miran are unlikely to be able to use market pressure to cow the rest of the FOMC into cutting. The F",increase,increase,True,True,406.9566,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-15T17:03:50.528666Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"if... not gonna wager much here, thats basically a casino bet here",increase,decrease,False,True,1.9544,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T15:31:59.490196Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,imagine if it was a 26bps decrease lol,hold,decrease,False,True,0.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T12:57:42.981782Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,everyone is going to become powells victim,increase,increase,True,True,143.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T18:49:33.083192Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,@kingk8 is propobly a crypto millionaire just betting lol,hold,hold,True,True,60.34,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T20:19:05.307356Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"because its impossible to find a job. job listing boards are full of fake jobs, jobs that are available are not near by ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1331.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T09:36:55.544645Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change: basically near 0% (not even mentioned as a serious probability). 25 bps cut: about 96% chance. 50 bps cut: ,increase,decrease,False,True,84.61,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-17T18:44:09.578268Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Trump is gonna surprise the market with a 25 bp cut,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T14:06:42.642072Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Unemployment rate went up by .1% and everyone think Powell gives a shit ?? core went up .3% in the same time frame which,decrease,increase,False,True,320.44,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T13:14:13.224959Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Don¡¯t need the jobs when you don¡¯t have the inflow of people,increase,increase,True,True,57.208,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T17:23:50.012997Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,¡°Expects¡± lmao my moneys on no change,increase,increase,True,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T10:41:00.559222Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Why the pump? Or just normal volatility?,increase,decrease,False,True,830.2504,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-28T17:17:53.502964Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Hi, I am struggling to make a bet, when I click buy, button changes to ""Bought Yes"" and firework anitmation comes, but b",decrease,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T12:46:28.161404Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Just -0.1%, will see the CPI¡­",decrease,decrease,True,True,56294.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T22:57:34.217055Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Idk, cuz morons like me keep thinking he won¡¯t cut? ??. I think there could be an element of herd mentality at play. Tr",hold,decrease,False,True,24502.954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T06:33:47.587722Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,yeah and you can only bet on this once so it¡¯s a stupid bet,increase,decrease,False,True,100.04,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-12T14:25:05.539179Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I bought more. All I have to say is... Chat GPT the scenario and circumstances of inflation/labor leading into the FOMC ,increase,increase,True,True,9034.8919,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T06:46:38.815626Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Now we know who is the real idiot ??,hold,decrease,False,True,6.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:22:37.980338Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"25 or 50, lets just say a quick prayers to ""no change"" for providing liquidity for us to bet",decrease,decrease,True,True,530.1999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T13:45:52.953915Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You mean like when the Bank of England lowered rates a couple months ago and we paused again? If you think the Fed is no,increase,increase,True,True,2841.6878,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T15:03:16.853975Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Added back to no change gang - either fed gets death threats or worried their peepee tapes will be released and drop 50,",increase,increase,True,True,442.9178,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T12:55:09.815369Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,With miran did powell get more strife or be tamed?,increase,decrease,False,True,49.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T07:45:39.271783Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,JUICE CONTROL THE WORLD THINK ABOUT IT :),increase,hold,False,True,1345.843,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-10T04:07:28.652732Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"75 bps cut coming, followed by a full 100 bps cut.",increase,increase,True,True,87.6839,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T19:33:02.472129Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"if fed makes the decision based on economic data, 1 lackluster job report isn't a huge deal. the almost 3% inflation is ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1749.1157,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:40:06.763441Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i love this market everyone feels that they re the smart ones,hold,hold,True,True,12.3025,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T15:30:37.712184Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,bro i need them to push it to 1c so I can fill my omega order,increase,decrease,False,True,503.4982,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:08:49.298251Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,How much more time and where can i see it live(Rate cut not the speech),hold,decrease,False,True,115.1288,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T16:48:21.325487Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I am not saying it's going to happen, but odds are not that low guys",hold,decrease,False,True,115.91,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T01:14:25.410027Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,will she vote for revenge? hope so,decrease,hold,False,True,281.7219,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T22:24:30.968029Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Officials acknowledged worries over higher inflation and weaker employment, but a majority of the 18 policymakers in att",decrease,hold,False,True,611.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T13:04:05.723083Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,If inflation keeps increasing and economy still work well (...). Pending 1 month to see clearlier and decide the size of,decrease,decrease,True,True,18.6268,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:44:09.348128Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"that's my point as well, right now he cannot give 50bps cut, 25bps is not enough and 0 makes sense. 50 bps next month ma",hold,increase,False,True,384.45,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T22:43:47.912573Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"would no chance be already priced in? that's the only reason I think it a no change won't happen, cause markets always p",decrease,decrease,True,True,27.7324,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T19:47:29.584412Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Keep in mind I¡¯m talking about Cme FEDWatch predictor.. they predict future markets based on what the fed may do and ,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.1185,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-24T21:31:51.700877Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"""Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said that the chance of FED lowering 25 bps is high in the next meeting""",hold,decrease,False,True,245.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:54:15.612719Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,okok you do intra trades! I understand,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-31T09:36:44.611768Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Let go of the struggle, it's a sure thing.",decrease,increase,False,True,109.7488,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T02:50:58.489341Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Intern fed kingk8 has bought again 0.5 cut ! He sits on 3 millions,decrease,increase,False,True,104.82,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-19T20:54:11.767629Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I am more willing to bet on the skewing of polymarket than the fedwatch tool :),hold,hold,True,True,122.16,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T14:14:41.835905Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,with consumer data no change is more likely than a 50bps cut,hold,increase,False,True,15.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T14:48:39.977665Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The narrative around No Change has begun. Nick Timiraos ""The Fed Whisperer"" posted this 30 minutes ago. Read his last li",decrease,increase,False,True,15481.8523,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-03T00:48:44.257977Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Anyone betting yes on ""no change"" hates money",decrease,increase,False,True,436.7808,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-16T15:36:28.864939Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Sales good, inflation high, economy strong. Media and prediction keep focusing on rate cuts for bubble assets. If that h",decrease,decrease,True,True,4.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T18:04:06.417532Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,hahahahahaah i love poly for that,hold,hold,True,True,0.0012,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-21T15:34:14.433114Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Except the odds of a cut are plummeting and I bottom ticked it. Appreciate your advice though,decrease,decrease,True,True,24502.954,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-14T02:11:13.788286Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"ZDOK8000 24 No Change 3s ago If this ends on the 18th, people can easily adjust their bid for whatever the official ",decrease,hold,False,True,0.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T17:08:50.045145Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,He said they should cut 50 but will end up cutting 25. You lost and are panicking commenting every 2 minutes,increase,decrease,False,True,9245.534,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T02:30:36.396887Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,25bps decrease is for the chickens... pok pok pokkkkkk ??,hold,decrease,False,True,230.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-15T11:47:57.148581Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"They will cut 25 bps, jobless is bad asf, inflation is manipulate so they will reduce",hold,flip,False,True,50000.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T18:19:07.946074Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"We may see a bump on Wednesday with PPI and then on Thursday with CPI if both run hot. Otherwise, if it's cool, odds def",increase,decrease,False,True,2841.6878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T18:40:17.575421Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"why? since Trump is in the office, there has been no cut, suddenly market decided because of ""low"" inflation and ""highes",hold,increase,False,True,115.91,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T08:38:00.417007Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,What disaster... Nobody gives a F about it.,flip,decrease,False,True,0.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T12:03:07.567975Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Did you not see the two huge revisions to the prior two months?,decrease,decrease,True,True,43.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-12T13:20:20.573469Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,FED will look at core inflation and will not make rate cut.,decrease,increase,False,True,130.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-29T11:57:10.999814Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I can share my conviction with you if you want.,increase,hold,False,True,264.7229,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T09:30:16.194995Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,labour didnt change at all in july essentially,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-17T10:31:06.516819Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Fed may cut rates sooner and faster than expected if disinflation holds up, Waller says",hold,increase,False,True,102.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-15T15:52:55.497676Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I'm surprised this market hasn't adjusted yet...https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1824062889776361896,hold,decrease,False,True,1635.4131,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T08:58:14.511629Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Yes, you are right. but again normal people don't care about it. They are too preoccupied with X and TicToc, making stup",flip,decrease,False,True,0.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-27T14:20:04.365688Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,95 mil $ for +25 bps increasing. Insane!,hold,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:09:48.676749Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"NO CHANGE INCOMING, you all printing money boys",hold,increase,False,True,133.4017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T19:33:18.511838Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,so I think tmrw is also gonna be very bad numbers for Retail Sales + social instability due to unemployment + republican,decrease,increase,False,True,8483.4584,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T18:50:21.329884Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,lol what i just said 2hrs ago everyone sold generational bottom,increase,hold,False,True,143.064,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T12:32:11.394781Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"bruhh, did you not see fed watch chart? 100% rate cut, and fed never goes against it, hear me, NEVER!",hold,increase,False,True,133.4017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T11:45:03.493494Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"powell this powell that. powell doesn¡¯t decide it, he¡¯s just a puppet",increase,decrease,False,True,100.04,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T03:25:44.073445Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"same, i think the ppi and cpi number will be bad, im hedging too",decrease,decrease,True,True,153.7038,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b96e21d78ab4dab109a16b73c65577ecaeb09b46 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,93 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +542539,2025-09-17T12:11:03.843324Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I hope I take all of your money. Filthy animals the lot of you.,increase,increase,True,True,143.064,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T12:03:07.567975Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Did you not see the two huge revisions to the prior two months?,decrease,decrease,True,True,43.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-24T19:48:25.491484Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ehy did ¡®no change¡¯ go from 20 to 16 in a few hours while it was staying flat?,hold,decrease,False,True,2792.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T16:28:47.029395Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"You born stupid, if it's 2% it's for a reason",decrease,increase,False,True,702.2151,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T17:11:15.145982Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bro you nuked 5K on here and try to pump up your position to cut losses - f off,increase,decrease,False,True,14.1336,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:24:30.703029Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,most likely yeah but there's no info on it yet bro,hold,decrease,False,True,32.6055,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T08:38:00.417007Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,What disaster... Nobody gives a F about it.,flip,decrease,False,True,0.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T19:36:00.135462Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"very unlikely we win, but be hilarious",increase,decrease,False,True,2.09,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-03T00:48:44.257977Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Anyone betting yes on ""no change"" hates money",decrease,increase,False,True,436.7808,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-13T19:54:55.147603Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Can anyone enlighten me as to why the FED wants to cut rates? Inflation is stable, if not even slightly up, stock market",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T20:11:07.656275Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Markets selling off like there¡¯s no cut :) always follow the market,decrease,increase,False,True,320.44,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-06T15:29:02.248649Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Waller mogged all the recession callers with their fancy indicators. Will only cut 1 time.,decrease,increase,False,True,3457.6903,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T14:45:40.519251Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Increased ""no change"" cuz it feels like an OR OR trap where everyone assumes its 100% getting rate cut",increase,increase,True,True,221.271,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-07-30T08:06:26.669477Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"He will raise the rate inflation raise, dollars weak, and tarifs etc",hold,flip,False,True,10000.008,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-16T20:41:16.221625Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,emphasis on the past tense there buddy,hold,flip,False,True,17.6,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-10T04:07:28.652732Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"75 bps cut coming, followed by a full 100 bps cut.",increase,increase,True,True,87.6839,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-09T19:02:47.972889Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"As a gambler, I don't care about the Fed, Chairman, or any of that. The 'No change' bet has 30 times payout.Win, the pay",decrease,hold,False,True,31.6078,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T04:49:37.644623Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I agree & nice profile picture.,increase,hold,False,True,5761.6335,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T15:03:16.853975Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Added back to no change gang - either fed gets death threats or worried their peepee tapes will be released and drop 50,",increase,increase,True,True,442.9178,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T19:17:48.234269Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Did the same thing. Got out early. It was the right decision.,hold,decrease,False,True,395.166,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-16T18:48:47.677572Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Markets are weird. 25bps was overvalued at 90% not so long ago, now its undervalued at 50%. Fed people clearly indicated",hold,decrease,False,True,193.475,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T17:19:33.719847Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"50bps cut would admit defeat that they are behind the curve, especially since data today was ok. Since when does the fed",hold,increase,False,True,23.0106,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:49:13.164798Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,The market was crashing and when he tried to dump he had a sell order in (using cashout button) but before he hit the se,increase,decrease,False,True,77.208,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T15:18:28.635839Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"He's either an insider or a retard.. even with 12 voting members, if you are a insider you know the likely result.",increase,decrease,False,True,6.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T12:11:47.206805Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Man.. you already sold off 60k shares of your 91k bet, eh? Losing conviction fast. But sure, tell us zero chance for OUR",increase,decrease,False,True,12252.8547,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-26T23:08:14.810421Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Want rates cut to make America a manufacture country again, to be competitive he need a weaker dollar. He think inflatio",hold,increase,False,True,0.0235,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:22:37.980338Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"25 or 50, lets just say a quick prayers to ""no change"" for providing liquidity for us to bet",decrease,decrease,True,True,530.1999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T21:24:24.851235Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Would share why? What is the reason and fact of this?,increase,UNKNOWN,False,True,85.09,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-27T23:34:39.786589Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Yo, can anyone give me like a few bucks? I wanna buy even more, but can't deposit through my bank and not really liquid ",hold,increase,False,True,0.3492,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T16:16:26.282425Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,yolo your life savings and make millions. ~ benjamin.,hold,increase,False,True,24213.09,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T06:45:49.845226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,We¡¯ll meet after this is done lol,increase,hold,False,True,293.15,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-18T17:56:38.421935Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The Fed avoids surprising markets with decisions far from expectations, but at Jackson Hole they will likely push back a",hold,increase,False,True,1126.3358,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:45:34.474722Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The question is 2.9 enough for them to stay? It¡¯s going up which isn¡¯t good, my money is on no change and he will",increase,decrease,False,True,77.208,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T18:33:27.666724Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Risk/Reward is not worth to hold 25bps when everyone already priced it in before the event for the mere 4% profit...,decrease,decrease,True,True,271.0913,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:18:58.963174Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"It don't matter, none of this matters, very soon we'll be very much unrugged.",decrease,decrease,True,True,11.56,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-18T11:46:02.147432Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Lmao how many times was it wrong since 2023 ? Don¡¯t make me laugh ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,9.8705,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-28T18:21:34.873094Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Read your sentence again and think about what it means,increase,decrease,False,True,17.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T15:38:28.516214Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,More money in the no change order books than the 50 decrease¡­. The flip is coming,increase,flip,False,True,39.1185,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T17:02:32.146616Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Same opinion, if everyone know something - In those cases no one knows anything.",increase,hold,False,True,49.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T15:28:46.032792Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,so no change if they cant agree on 25 and 50 bps + good core retail = can wait lol?,decrease,increase,False,True,224.9013,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:42:58.344379Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Oof sorry to my 50+ bros. No change now more likely. The Fed can¡¯t cut into inflation this month and still remain credi,increase,increase,True,True,5865.1609,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-13T19:25:41.738006Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Oh wait, CME is now down to 95%. Because the other 5% IS FOR THE 50% CUT",hold,hold,True,True,49.8912,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-01T04:18:14.357255Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,There's 0% chance he'll cut 50bips. The growth number is still too hot.,hold,increase,False,True,1.05,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T09:53:29.405113Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"My guess is nothing, marked has already priced in 25bps",increase,hold,False,True,293.15,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T22:24:30.968029Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Officials acknowledged worries over higher inflation and weaker employment, but a majority of the 18 policymakers in att",decrease,hold,False,True,611.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:07:47.605306Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,he's doing $10k weeks obviously he has some sort of automated system that i would assume we don't have access to,increase,hold,False,True,143.064,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T20:20:15.215829Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Never believe the media its all BS , believe half what you see and never believe what you hear",increase,hold,False,True,687.85,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-28T18:24:27.916747Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"That could be an effect. However, consider something else: if someone is relentless and puts a lot of pressure on you, b",increase,increase,True,True,17.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T18:19:41.068553Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"25bps had plenty of time to take profits and its been pretty liquid, RR is sh*t",decrease,decrease,True,True,238.5913,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-02T11:30:03.100085Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"hey Powell i believe in you, please up 0,5%",increase,flip,False,True,1.0989,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T16:25:07.056476Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Markets at ATH is all you need to know,increase,hold,False,True,256.92,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T07:45:39.271783Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,JUICE CONTROL THE WORLD THINK ABOUT IT :),increase,hold,False,True,1345.843,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T18:37:51.953102Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I just wish we could all win at the same time brothers,hold,hold,True,True,579.7251,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T15:49:14.342609Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I was spoken about CPI core, if it is below expectations",decrease,decrease,True,True,56294.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T16:59:21.195072Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ha ha.. you obviously don't get it. it's called a hedge bet,hold,decrease,False,True,129.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T17:13:21.798891Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,millions will be made in 2 days,hold,increase,False,True,15.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:22:31.446273Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Breaking: it will be a +25bps INCREASE. You heard it first.,hold,flip,False,True,6.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T14:52:29.976537Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"yea [ppl all getting horny from a ""may"" cut kek",decrease,decrease,True,True,3.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T03:53:15.308942Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"winning is great, but i am worried about the bigger picture and imo anything other than no change is really bad for the ",hold,decrease,False,True,919.35,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T02:50:58.489341Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Intern fed kingk8 has bought again 0.5 cut ! He sits on 3 millions,decrease,increase,False,True,104.82,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T16:23:00.233467Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,JUST IN: Fed¡¯s Hammack warns the Federal Reserve should be careful about cutting interest rates soon.,decrease,increase,False,True,3.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-09-16T15:36:28.864939Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Sales good, inflation high, economy strong. Media and prediction keep focusing on rate cuts for bubble assets. If that h",decrease,decrease,True,True,4.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T08:44:20.680337Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Stock market is a completely irrelevant metric, labour data was weak and rates are above neutral. If the Fed holds it¡¯l",decrease,increase,False,True,43.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T09:33:56.125347Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Lol so blackrock and standard chartered have illiterate economic takes? Sure buddy¡­ not saying 50 will or wont happen, ",decrease,decrease,True,True,2437.4508,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-28T12:02:59.951834Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,you ain't givin' me no three fiddy?,hold,hold,True,True,0.3492,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T15:47:04.462048Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,am literally out here dropping FREE poetry for you mfs. moon it.,hold,hold,True,True,27213.09,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T17:13:34.450596Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Sorry, but I thought these numbers were published on Tuesday?",decrease,decrease,True,True,56294.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T22:14:30.979627Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,could never be apart of the rate cut sheep :/,hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T12:55:09.815369Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,With miran did powell get more strife or be tamed?,decrease,decrease,True,True,49.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T10:47:11.236732Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I would say August inflation reading will be when it really turns around (where inflation will be high if you check truf,decrease,increase,False,True,3248.8912,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-04T14:47:45.431378Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Taking 25bps decrease is stupid, you'll earn more by just holding your bags at this point :D",hold,increase,False,True,1249.74,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T14:20:09.327699Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,economy is good why will uncle powell cut? lmao,decrease,increase,False,True,3.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-19T01:50:01.781461Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,First time looking at polymarket ever I saw no change at 0.12 and could not move money fast enough. Also who cares about,decrease,decrease,True,True,461.76,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:44:09.348128Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"that's my point as well, right now he cannot give 50bps cut, 25bps is not enough and 0 makes sense. 50 bps next month ma",hold,increase,False,True,384.45,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T14:13:08.514861Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,the no change rate should be at least 40%,hold,hold,True,True,1200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T20:19:05.307356Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"because its impossible to find a job. job listing boards are full of fake jobs, jobs that are available are not near by ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1331.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T18:49:28.466621Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,2 hours in we're already bouncing from 2 to 4 my friend,hold,increase,False,True,143.064,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T18:03:36.074134Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Zion, u better get the fuck out of my sight",decrease,decrease,True,True,530.1999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T12:36:49.419416Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Cpi 3.1. Pce2.9. When the fed dropped rates at 3.3 cpi last year long term yields jumped up. Unemployment rate is es,increase,increase,True,True,57.208,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T08:58:14.511629Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Yes, you are right. but again normal people don't care about it. They are too preoccupied with X and TicToc, making stup",flip,decrease,False,True,0.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T16:19:12.364862Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,they were lauging at me yesterday when i said everyone sold the bottom,increase,increase,True,True,143.064,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T13:43:26.511277Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"lol this is true, it¡¯s transitory until it¡¯s an emergency. Haha",decrease,hold,False,True,100.1185,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T13:18:12.354469Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"They didn¡¯t say they were cutting this month at all, the MARKET said they were cutting. How did that work out in Februa",increase,decrease,False,True,5865.1609,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-03T18:53:45.661712Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,1272¡¯s largest position ever is only $151 lol,increase,hold,False,True,13.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T05:32:34.896294Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I did some very advance quantum math most wouldn¡¯t understand and it¡¯s NO CHANGE,hold,increase,False,True,18.77,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:51:39.571838Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change. Markets crash to take the media attention away from Charlie kirk assassination,hold,hold,True,True,1246.2045,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T15:30:26.835564Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"""dad what was the sept 2025 rate decision like?""",increase,hold,False,True,143.064,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-29T12:00:13.283198Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Those who speak for the +25 bps cut are the same who were sharing the CME data for +50 bps a month ago lol.,hold,decrease,False,True,264.7229,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-14T00:09:40.890737Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Jesus never lived, asphyxiation and negative drug test, no cutting rates when inflation's above 2% and we have a ""wait a",increase,increase,True,True,6.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T16:19:50.290143Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,so I think no change now and maybe panic -50 bps in October,decrease,decrease,True,True,224.9013,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T16:08:19.050474Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"lol, I am his assistant, can confirm",decrease,hold,False,True,224.9013,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-27T03:22:13.738443Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,no way the decrease 50+ bps. free money there,hold,increase,False,True,2.6687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..946dbd4b5fa5f93030897f4fb3c78e723a31c14f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,98 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +542539,2025-09-11T17:13:34.450596Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Sorry, but I thought these numbers were published on Tuesday?",decrease,decrease,True,True,56294.1435,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-16T23:33:26.040588Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"The economy is strong, you all got lost in the fugazi of group think.",hold,increase,False,True,26.24,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-31T09:36:44.611768Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Let go of the struggle, it's a sure thing.",decrease,increase,False,True,109.7488,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T03:53:15.308942Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"winning is great, but i am worried about the bigger picture and imo anything other than no change is really bad for the ",hold,decrease,False,True,919.35,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T19:33:18.511838Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,so I think tmrw is also gonna be very bad numbers for Retail Sales + social instability due to unemployment + republican,decrease,increase,False,True,8483.4584,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T15:07:56.942919Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,That¡¯s not how that works. Hahaha. I¡¯ve seen a lot of people dump money here without a clue.. my theory is he want,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.1185,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T12:19:58.144513Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Hottest country with the hottest PPI & CPI :),increase,increase,True,True,10074.6111,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T14:59:23.111655Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Grok said it's logical to increase rates right now,hold,hold,True,True,132.5405,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T17:44:22.114748Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I meant for no change, no idea why I bought increase lmao",increase,flip,False,True,14.6,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-12T14:49:34.348772Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Your last sentence about CME walking back 0% by Monday is pitch perfect. I agree 100%.,increase,hold,False,True,9034.8919,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-08-15T16:22:37.785695Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,sir you are going to make a lot of money on a no cut scenario,increase,increase,True,True,374.3762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T13:55:07.364387Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Tbh I ain't doing too well either brother. Pls cheer me up,decrease,decrease,True,True,539.725,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T14:52:29.976537Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"yea [ppl all getting horny from a ""may"" cut kek",decrease,decrease,True,True,3.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T05:17:04.417551Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,says the dude holding 50bps decrease\,flip,flip,True,True,503.4982,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-15T12:39:29.352651Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Sadly I think there is the possibility that there will be no more rate cuts this year¡­,flip,decrease,False,True,0.004,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T19:29:47.326387Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,this is the most retail possible way to get your information,increase,hold,False,True,8.64,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:07:56.184251Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"oh no job market bad ! cut rate and solve. dont fix the problem, money will fix it. That's what the economy needs right ",hold,flip,False,True,384.45,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T09:52:05.456173Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,hes a little indian scammer begging on polymarket,increase,decrease,False,True,143.064,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T18:10:53.549477Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Well, I am waiting for it to go up, 2% chance 2-3 days ago felt like a bargain really irrespective of the outcome.",hold,increase,False,True,249.87,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-19T11:03:52.502172Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Soryka 616.7K 25+ Bps Increase 0s ago 3 billion of USDT whales send to #HTX i think the pump is coming. 25 decrease is,hold,decrease,False,True,2703.02,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T19:53:38.304243Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"they already acknowledge that but they say they would adopt ""wait and see"" approach in light of new sticky inflation dat",decrease,decrease,True,True,1298.7458,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T15:21:54.002685Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,That's not how Federal Reserve works,hold,decrease,False,True,115.91,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T09:39:14.045689Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"So the Fed will cut into rising inflation because of political pressure, cause a crisis and then get blamed by Trump? Ma",hold,increase,False,True,2819.59,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T19:41:09.851232Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"It wont but the nicky leaks over the weekend point towards 50, but ideally Powell better do nothing as they accomplished",increase,decrease,False,True,2.09,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T17:06:12.243312Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"it's amazing how efficient markets are, even a fed decision bet. everyone sold the 50bps cut bottom and that should tell",increase,decrease,False,True,143.064,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-19T03:35:16.601093Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,There is a high probability that interest rates will not be cut,hold,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T20:10:26.146932Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Tbh the fed only has 3 months to get 2.0% target I doubt they cut it,increase,increase,True,True,995.42,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T16:58:35.612751Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Jerome isn't ""forced"" to do anything. That's why Fed independence is so heavily promoted. If inflation comes in hot, he ",increase,increase,True,True,3496.1352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:12:03.745602Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Exactlyyyy! Someone who gets it. More money in the economy wont fix labour,hold,increase,False,True,384.45,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T08:44:20.680337Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Stock market is a completely irrelevant metric, labour data was weak and rates are above neutral. If the Fed holds it¡¯l",decrease,increase,False,True,43.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T23:48:50.701804Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I have bet against No change too many times...,increase,decrease,False,True,214.7292,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T20:19:05.307356Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"because its impossible to find a job. job listing boards are full of fake jobs, jobs that are available are not near by ",decrease,decrease,True,True,1331.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T10:35:01.614107Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Niggq do you know what sticky means,decrease,hold,False,True,539.725,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T08:38:00.417007Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,What disaster... Nobody gives a F about it.,flip,decrease,False,True,0.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:57:36.633915Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Im against the world with 5$ lol,hold,decrease,False,True,5.63,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-17T19:06:59.396986Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,The fed has been clear that they wont cut rates until they hit their target inflation rate. They wont change ??,increase,hold,False,True,12.45,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:47:20.191285Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Trump¡¯s son is in here, he¡¯s an insider.",hold,hold,True,True,30.8839,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T19:01:32.287699Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Guys... Bank of America has revised its forecast to a 0.5 drop next week... Place your bets cautiously!,increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T16:14:52.831461Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,A political election is not based on macro elements,increase,hold,False,True,1200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T18:28:10.589846Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I like that 25+ bps increase ??,increase,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T11:33:34.169402Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,will also do a little present for buddy for sure if no change :D just remind me sir,hold,hold,True,True,3299.72,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-22T16:23:00.233467Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,JUST IN: Fed¡¯s Hammack warns the Federal Reserve should be careful about cutting interest rates soon.,decrease,increase,False,True,3.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-13T20:59:37.165407Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bostic and Goolsbee¡¯s remarks were interesting... Shame I can't get the links to work,increase,hold,False,True,1956.2241,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:45:34.474722Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The question is 2.9 enough for them to stay? It¡¯s going up which isn¡¯t good, my money is on no change and he will",increase,decrease,False,True,77.208,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T15:01:50.902542Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"If Fed wants credibility, they will say no change. And then we all know Trump will be crying. Lol",increase,increase,True,True,6.77,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T23:21:17.543769Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,YOU DONATE N SAY WHO I WILL PUT ON THAT FOR U.. PROMISE please,increase,hold,False,True,84.61,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T01:00:19.789614Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It's an insider... He will made an easy 3 millions. Wake up guys!!,hold,increase,False,True,230.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T19:42:49.355196Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Ya I mean it could come down to that as well, I could see them pushing the cut to October just to stick it to them.",increase,decrease,False,True,57.208,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T15:13:59.932408Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,generational entry on no change,increase,increase,True,True,19223.09,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T22:48:21.146569Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,And then blame tariffs. Trump can¡¯t fire him. Markets crash.,flip,increase,False,True,0.004,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T17:39:54.289587Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,so I was looking at fed watch history and it hasn¡¯t been very good at getting predictions.. during 2022 they missed t,decrease,increase,False,True,100.1185,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T22:02:52.319614Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Don't worry bro ..Keep buying more ..this month is no change,decrease,increase,False,True,73.74,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T18:33:27.666724Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Risk/Reward is not worth to hold 25bps when everyone already priced it in before the event for the mere 4% profit...,increase,decrease,False,True,271.0913,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T15:06:15.435778Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It would be such a Jerome Powell move to have a no cut day. This dude is always late to the party. I doubt it's any diff,increase,increase,True,True,55.9999,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-24T22:11:49.692443Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,And I bought this because I thought it was undervalued (it did hit 40%...). I'm also hedging against my other positions,hold,decrease,False,True,3055.3141,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-07T08:58:14.511629Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Yes, you are right. but again normal people don't care about it. They are too preoccupied with X and TicToc, making stup",flip,decrease,False,True,0.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T10:35:19.557731Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"is not that taken as ""No change"" so 41x for me?",hold,hold,True,True,93.0561,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T13:36:27.973267Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"JustWakingUp sold 14,000 Yes for 50+ bps decrease at 8.1 $1,129 SEND IT.",increase,decrease,False,True,143.064,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-16T15:19:01.926122Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ikr the only place where the wisdom of the crowd means 5 guys with cat avatars set the odds,hold,hold,True,True,1067.7358,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-14T20:20:56.615944Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It's gonna bet a trial balloon cut just to appease the market in guise of supporting the labor market and it's gonna be ,decrease,flip,False,True,439.0324,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-03-02T21:27:14.683568Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,the timeline always picks the most entertaining path.,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T14:38:59.876036Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"We have to wait CPI, CPU is nothing, don¡¯t worry guy, if CPI is wrong the bet will up to 30-40% ;)",decrease,increase,False,True,56294.1435,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T17:25:28.108997Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"holding hands since day 1, love you Ken - Barbie",decrease,hold,False,True,530.1999,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T17:06:50.769252Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,there's no mandate for the fed to catch up with the market beside price stability and maximum employmemt,decrease,hold,False,True,439.0324,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-14T15:11:30.246583Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"agreed. He will not cut just to spite trump, he has the Syndrome. TDS. He wants to be a Dem hero. Also history shows cut",decrease,increase,False,True,1331.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-20T19:34:24.213038Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"n the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes released today it's clear that they aren't cutting rates in September, unless forced to",decrease,increase,False,True,1298.7458,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T17:34:22.608009Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Trump is pushing 2 rate cuts it will happen,decrease,decrease,True,True,79565.939,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-24T21:03:22.590224Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I wouldn't say that haha. Depends on Core PCE imo. If it comes in at 0.2% MoM, I'd sell.",hold,decrease,False,True,3055.3141,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-18T14:27:51.234622Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you must not of heard him at his last speech when a reported asked him how about a 50 bps cut for september,hold,flip,False,True,127.7816,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-12T12:50:21.796921Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,The fed will drop rates¡­. They have toooo¡­. It makes sense and the market has priced it in already!!! Tha is,hold,increase,False,True,100.1185,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-08-05T18:36:58.514844Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bro How come you lost only $500 while I have lost almost $30k?,decrease,decrease,True,True,42460.6984,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T20:24:21.578281Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,right... like if your up 30%+ take 20% of that 30% and put it in the `no 25bp`,decrease,decrease,True,True,1749.1157,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-28T17:17:53.502964Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Hi, I am struggling to make a bet, when I click buy, button changes to ""Bought Yes"" and firework anitmation comes, but b",decrease,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516008,2025-01-26T17:45:04.946535Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"The Trump game is a new game, you will realise soon enough",hold,hold,True,True,0.0235,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T22:04:53.755483Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,When we started trading we always hear something: Go against the crowd ?..No change is coming,decrease,increase,False,True,73.74,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-10T13:00:18.076084Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Powell is going to have a lot of victims GG,increase,decrease,False,True,143.08,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-11T12:50:37.462295Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"In conclusion, inflation has not decreased since February.",decrease,decrease,True,True,18.6268,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T16:20:32.125255Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,no rate cut... just watch... reasons: 1. spite 2. no data indicates a change in policy just yet.. more wait and see,hold,hold,True,True,387.1356,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:09:44.974764Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,unemployment is due to AI and tariff. No reason I think to lower interest rate since inflation is still rising,hold,increase,False,True,29.95,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-03T22:55:38.205012Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,That'll change on Friday when jobs are revised down by 500k+,decrease,increase,False,True,200000.1603,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T15:30:37.712184Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,bro i need them to push it to 1c so I can fill my omega order,flip,decrease,False,True,503.4982,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T11:49:54.478961Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Yet you hold No change?? K sounds good,decrease,decrease,True,True,15481.8523,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-08T09:59:11.189668Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Anyone notice Wall Street quietly revised the CPI forecast from 2.7% to 2.9% just in the past few days? They're moving t,increase,decrease,False,True,2841.6878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T18:42:25.973365Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Add them all up and they still haven¡¯t lost as much as the top holder of -50. Lmao.,decrease,hold,False,True,39.1185,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T17:28:59.322952Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"that's not ""just in"", JPM been released that article",hold,hold,True,True,391.0798,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T14:56:49.717154Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,50 bps is cooked. It'll bleed all day leading into PPI tomorrow.,increase,increase,True,True,3496.1352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-13T15:50:07.357717Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You are literally in the same boat.,flip,hold,False,True,503.4982,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T11:57:36.691839Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,The political angle regarding Powell's decision on the 17 could be a very interesting one. Will he with his FOMC majorit,increase,hold,False,True,8492.8315,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T23:24:16.581312Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Jobs data within fed expectations, CPI coming in hot, sticky inflation, as well as giving the middle finger to TACO... t",hold,increase,False,True,919.35,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +553813,2025-10-27T03:22:13.738443Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,no way the decrease 50+ bps. free money there,hold,increase,False,True,2.6687,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T17:02:32.146616Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Same opinion, if everyone know something - In those cases no one knows anything.",increase,hold,False,True,49.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-16T07:23:01.209972Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Trump calls for 'bigger' interest rate cut ahead of Fed meeting,decrease,decrease,True,True,8251.4996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +504071,2024-09-16T18:48:47.677572Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Markets are weird. 25bps was overvalued at 90% not so long ago, now its undervalued at 50%. Fed people clearly indicated",hold,decrease,False,True,193.475,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-09T23:56:45.765871Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Imagine not buying no change at 5 cents..!!! lol,increase,increase,True,True,57.208,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T17:34:38.736622Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"There are 12000 USD free to anyone buying NO to +50, why is nobody taking it?",hold,decrease,False,True,78.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-15T20:11:07.656275Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Markets selling off like there¡¯s no cut :) always follow the market,decrease,increase,False,True,320.44,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +542539,2025-09-17T11:54:19.800751Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Hello everybody! what do we got today? :),hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d5dfa2d79fefcd625590b97a53b929bd1c41324a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +6,0.011750000000000002,0.0027500000000000003,-0.009000000000000001,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.02376470588235294,0.015882352941176472,-0.007882352941176469,DOWN,0.47017171551952175,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,17,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.050235294117647065,0.042705882352941184,-0.007529411764705882,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,17,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0,0.016714285714285713,0.008571428571428572,-0.008142857142857141,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.017666666666666667,0.011750000000000002,-0.0059166666666666656,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.13324747474747478,0.03281313131313132,-0.10043434343434346,DOWN,0.9482895592568835,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,99,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.2564141414141414,0.13324747474747478,-0.12316666666666665,DOWN,0.9287006597263314,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,99,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.03281313131313132,0.02368181818181818,-0.009131313131313143,DOWN,0.9584640288429527,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,99,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.0060714285714285705,0.0006428571428571429,-0.005428571428571428,DOWN,0.9999999294557507,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.042705882352941184,0.02376470588235294,-0.018941176470588243,DOWN,0.9701256175818754,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,17,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8acf724f87e49cdc586d482c0222ac783805f3da --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +4,0.24608695652173906,0.2234765625,-0.02261039402173906,DOWN,0.8967003151507746,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,23,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.0132,0.00606628787878788,-0.00713371212121212,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,5,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.033875,0.022649305555555554,-0.011225694444444448,DOWN,0.8323209648029234,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,16,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.0385,0.05693402777777777,0.01843402777777777,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,2,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0,0.045909090909090906,0.032829861111111115,-0.013079229797979791,DOWN,0.7572022132781202,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,11,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.2232051282051282,0.08414322916666667,-0.13906189903846153,DOWN,0.9954365835901496,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,117,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.021900000000000003,0.009464015151515154,-0.012435984848484849,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,20,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.06328571428571429,0.047989583333333335,-0.015296130952380957,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.038385106382978734,0.02192129629629629,-0.016463810086682445,DOWN,0.9244417408653282,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,235,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.4558333333333333,0.27966145833333333,-0.17617187499999998,DOWN,0.9403207772742941,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d0c346b1e3fad31e1e7ee36727debafa5d074cd7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-03T20:23:57.992338Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I just know these whales gonna win again. Fuck it 2 dollars means shit,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:08:17.643165Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"No one is afraid, we are just baffled by your stubborness. This is not our first rodeo",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T16:45:12.921239Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"guys if you speak the truth they will disable your ability to post, I am on a second acc",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T11:40:15.494276Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I WILL TRADE ROBUX FOR USDT RIGHT NOW I BELIEVE IN YES,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T15:23:12.758362Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I only spread the realest facts,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T19:58:33.161502Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The top NO holder, ScarletRot, is sitting on a $2M position, with only a 2% return if NO wins. That's just a $40K gain. ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T08:54:34.918857Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,expecting a multibillion dollar company to burn itself at the stake to save a few people with 6-7 figures of financial i,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T07:21:29.033679Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Polymarket affirmed that ""a consensus of credible reporting HAS NOT CONFIRMED that Zelenskyy has worn a suit"", which was",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T19:46:33.433684Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Another FAKE VICTIM who bought AFTER POLYMARKET TOLD THEM WHICH SIDE IT WILL RESOLVE TO and is now COMPLAINING ABOUT BEI,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T07:06:35.082435Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I bought it about two months ago, and from that angle it does look like I'm being scammed",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T05:08:45.755515Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Thanks mom, you're wrong and part of the problem.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T23:39:03.827698Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"""Yes"" holders risk $1 for $100, ""No"" holders risk $100 for $1 ??",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T17:08:37.987218Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,EVERYBODY I am going to do another round of Reddit posts - LAST ONES GOT 200K VIEWS!!! Leave any suggestions of subreddi,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T12:55:13.742482Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Yes bettors, why are you not buying at 100x leverage, so you can make not 50x your money, but 5000?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T09:38:41.134178Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,google ukraine mineral deal. aenews was scamming back then as well.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T16:52:15.368994Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Cant blame them though. Imagine not knowing anything about UMA and previous votings and see Headlines of Zelensky wearin,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T21:34:48.440836Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"bro risking 6000k to get $150 , moron midcurved mf",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T15:37:08.603632Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Bro you've been talking in here non-stop for the past two days. Your big win was risking 6k for 100 bucks when you could,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:07:00.054952Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Guy has dropped $6k hoping to make..... $180. And already underwater. lmao.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-28T12:31:38.039051Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I hold to 0 if needed so i don't need to comeback here :),True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-09T00:20:19.644272Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For those unaware, market will resolve N in the next 20 minutes. Do not fall for the scam comments indicating an ""emerge",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:14:25.360956Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"To who? unless you stir enough stink to reach really big people, Polymarket just ignore you all",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T17:32:55.179004Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Who the F (Punchbowl ) spends $5M to buy at an average of $0.98? There are MANY MUCH more profitable ways to spend FIVE ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T11:33:49.852253Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I want to buy ges took at thi point,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T22:25:45.918771Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,whales will change to yes its more profit,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T08:57:52.851268Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"nfng, just bros has a short memory and can¡¯t remember what happened a month ago",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:42:16.260665Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"wow, 35k YES bet, what a guy!!!",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T19:47:36.461137Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,can't believe polymarket selling $1 for 0.01,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T09:52:46.034228Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Suit jackets have one small pocket on the chest. Zelensky's jacket has 2 large pockets on the chest, that's a classic ca",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T13:47:13.161485Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Imagine having 0 testosterone and holding NO for a $50 gain, you've failed your bloodline",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T12:04:12.730046Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,In 12 hours they will be revealed,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T10:23:57.094384Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,i have too much on this better be yes ($6),True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T06:26:53.606336Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,you should know you are the king of uma,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T15:28:03.004883Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I'm buying 1M shares at 0.1 to join the lawsuit,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T08:08:57.332975Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The vote is over. To participate next time, buy UMA tokens (around $1) from a crypto exchange or wallet, go to vota.uma.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T22:30:55.154376Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,funny how YES holders think that earning 2% in a week is a scam and trying to make 50x in a day isn't a scam,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T13:20:06.461146Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,How would that make sense? He would then have more shares in Yes and would earn more if this was resolved as Yes,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T10:58:59.559287Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Congrats on your $200 profit big boy,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T12:46:17.645707Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Should be over already. But only remains to be seen. They are only attracting the wrong attention. Clearly the overall g,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T22:38:18.262651Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Go to the official Twitter of polymarket and UMA, and there you will find a discord link. I can't send it here",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..700c74934816df6fd4b8569cb4020b3dc275c700 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-03T20:23:57.992338Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I just know these whales gonna win again. Fuck it 2 dollars means shit,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:08:17.643165Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"No one is afraid, we are just baffled by your stubborness. This is not our first rodeo",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T07:21:29.033679Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Polymarket affirmed that ""a consensus of credible reporting HAS NOT CONFIRMED that Zelenskyy has worn a suit"", which was",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T11:40:15.494276Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I WILL TRADE ROBUX FOR USDT RIGHT NOW I BELIEVE IN YES,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T08:54:34.918857Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,expecting a multibillion dollar company to burn itself at the stake to save a few people with 6-7 figures of financial i,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T19:58:33.161502Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The top NO holder, ScarletRot, is sitting on a $2M position, with only a 2% return if NO wins. That's just a $40K gain. ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T16:45:12.921239Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"guys if you speak the truth they will disable your ability to post, I am on a second acc",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T15:23:12.758362Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I only spread the realest facts,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T05:08:45.755515Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Thanks mom, you're wrong and part of the problem.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T19:46:33.433684Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Another FAKE VICTIM who bought AFTER POLYMARKET TOLD THEM WHICH SIDE IT WILL RESOLVE TO and is now COMPLAINING ABOUT BEI,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T12:55:13.742482Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Yes bettors, why are you not buying at 100x leverage, so you can make not 50x your money, but 5000?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T07:06:35.082435Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I bought it about two months ago, and from that angle it does look like I'm being scammed",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T17:08:37.987218Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,EVERYBODY I am going to do another round of Reddit posts - LAST ONES GOT 200K VIEWS!!! Leave any suggestions of subreddi,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T09:38:41.134178Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,google ukraine mineral deal. aenews was scamming back then as well.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T21:34:48.440836Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"bro risking 6000k to get $150 , moron midcurved mf",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:14:25.360956Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"To who? unless you stir enough stink to reach really big people, Polymarket just ignore you all",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-09T00:20:19.644272Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For those unaware, market will resolve N in the next 20 minutes. Do not fall for the scam comments indicating an ""emerge",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T15:37:08.603632Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Bro you've been talking in here non-stop for the past two days. Your big win was risking 6k for 100 bucks when you could,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-28T12:31:38.039051Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I hold to 0 if needed so i don't need to comeback here :),True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T17:32:55.179004Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Who the F (Punchbowl ) spends $5M to buy at an average of $0.98? There are MANY MUCH more profitable ways to spend FIVE ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:07:00.054952Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Guy has dropped $6k hoping to make..... $180. And already underwater. lmao.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T23:39:03.827698Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"""Yes"" holders risk $1 for $100, ""No"" holders risk $100 for $1 ??",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T16:52:15.368994Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Cant blame them though. Imagine not knowing anything about UMA and previous votings and see Headlines of Zelensky wearin,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T19:47:36.461137Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,can't believe polymarket selling $1 for 0.01,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T22:25:45.918771Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,whales will change to yes its more profit,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T13:47:13.161485Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Imagine having 0 testosterone and holding NO for a $50 gain, you've failed your bloodline",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:42:16.260665Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"wow, 35k YES bet, what a guy!!!",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T08:57:52.851268Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"nfng, just bros has a short memory and can¡¯t remember what happened a month ago",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T12:04:12.730046Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,In 12 hours they will be revealed,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T09:52:46.034228Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Suit jackets have one small pocket on the chest. Zelensky's jacket has 2 large pockets on the chest, that's a classic ca",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T06:26:53.606336Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,you should know you are the king of uma,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T11:33:49.852253Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I want to buy ges took at thi point,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T15:28:03.004883Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I'm buying 1M shares at 0.1 to join the lawsuit,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T10:23:57.094384Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,i have too much on this better be yes ($6),True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T08:08:57.332975Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The vote is over. To participate next time, buy UMA tokens (around $1) from a crypto exchange or wallet, go to vota.uma.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T22:30:55.154376Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,funny how YES holders think that earning 2% in a week is a scam and trying to make 50x in a day isn't a scam,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T12:46:17.645707Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Should be over already. But only remains to be seen. They are only attracting the wrong attention. Clearly the overall g,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T13:20:06.461146Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,How would that make sense? He would then have more shares in Yes and would earn more if this was resolved as Yes,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T22:38:18.262651Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Go to the official Twitter of polymarket and UMA, and there you will find a discord link. I can't send it here",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T10:58:59.559287Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Congrats on your $200 profit big boy,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0e915b904702b21e8bcf263f8f600110db8519db --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,113 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-06T12:17:43.913652Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Over the past few days, I¡¯ve acquired more than 70k UMA tokens. When a contract with a market cap above $100 million-su",NO,YES,False,True,1494.2392,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T13:53:53.113845Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I went to the shop and bought the suit. And do you know what they did give me as accessiories? Your wallet,NO,NO,True,True,29.4863,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T07:40:13.919971Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Take a close look here - https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-merz-c94591f64c3ed518e4d817d121684298 and h,NO,NO,True,True,749.9174,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T22:37:39.334995Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,can someone send me 10 bucks so i can buy more yes,YES,YES,True,True,29.0156,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T16:52:15.368994Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Cant blame them though. Imagine not knowing anything about UMA and previous votings and see Headlines of Zelensky wearin,NO,YES,False,True,8455.7734,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T14:58:08.327353Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Does the UMA mechanism allow them to flip? Let's say I committed 1Million in yes but now i want to change to No,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,17192.5421,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T21:58:09.090997Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Why would you put $500k down to make a potential $10k? such a crap r:r,YES,NO,False,True,82.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T14:04:35.526513Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Holding NO for a 4% profit gotta be most socially outcasted reddit user incel disgusting obese discord mod thing one can,YES,NO,False,True,278.15,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T23:23:47.271408Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"bro they just raised $200m. this market will be forgotten in like 3 days, everyone hates UMA already, all of the og trad",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,196399.9116,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T22:40:00.765519Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Someone send $750 to propose a Yes resolution. Only $750 and yall see the vote result in 3 days :(,NO,YES,False,True,1428.6311,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T11:33:49.852253Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I want to buy ges took at thi point,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T13:14:21.336421Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,$145 in profits? $145 I didn't have last week.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2396.9568,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T12:52:53.123197Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,but i'll give you $12 to make clear your loss kid,YES,NO,False,True,197.8549,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T21:22:33.133591Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,tip me to fund the anti uma suit,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T12:29:06.888189Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Order book looks shaky for No. $50k yes buys and the floodgates will open to Yes,YES,YES,True,True,165.25,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T21:03:59.351342Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"propose yes then, lose your $750 when it goes p4",NO,NO,True,True,1115.0401,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T12:18:12.119138Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Don't worry guys. Just like they said the Astros v Dodgers was a technical issue, they can say whatever they want. It co",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,156.3544,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T00:41:30.451783Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"This market terminates soon. The chance of winning with Yes shares is very unlikely, that's why it's cheap. Don't buy sh",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T14:38:51.094948Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Guys did I did right that I bought yes?,YES,YES,True,True,51.26,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T12:46:17.645707Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Should be over already. But only remains to be seen. They are only attracting the wrong attention. Clearly the overall g,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T11:40:15.494276Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I WILL TRADE ROBUX FOR USDT RIGHT NOW I BELIEVE IN YES,YES,YES,True,True,8.0598,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T08:54:34.918857Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,expecting a multibillion dollar company to burn itself at the stake to save a few people with 6-7 figures of financial i,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,670.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T19:46:33.433684Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Another FAKE VICTIM who bought AFTER POLYMARKET TOLD THEM WHICH SIDE IT WILL RESOLVE TO and is now COMPLAINING ABOUT BEI,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T22:38:18.262651Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Go to the official Twitter of polymarket and UMA, and there you will find a discord link. I can't send it here",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T22:33:06.183082Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"why is forbes talking about a $3.7M Problem, when there are $178M involved?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19.28,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T22:25:45.918771Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,whales will change to yes its more profit,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T03:45:22.385037Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"So it costs $750 dollars to dispute a future ""No"" proposal, and we can dispute indefinitely, and *that $750* barrier is ",YES,YES,True,True,75.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T08:17:54.310968Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I don't know what will happen between now and July, but let me tell you this: whatever Zelensky wore at that NATO summit",NO,NO,True,True,27.923,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:14:25.360956Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"To who? unless you stir enough stink to reach really big people, Polymarket just ignore you all",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T21:12:00.748501Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"This will resolve to P2 or P3. There is too much evidence for YES resolution, but the UMA whale manipulators won¡¯t let ",YES,NO,False,True,3484.6223,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T00:21:27.647779Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"$1,923.03 To win $2,000.03 you were better of gambling on stake",YES,NO,False,True,375.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T12:33:28.537376Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I bought gamestop right on the top,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,461.6304,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T01:08:08.094088Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"i am deveastated and shocked, thankfully the no whales who are going to make $75 in profit are here to give advice",YES,NO,False,True,200.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T05:08:45.755515Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Thanks mom, you're wrong and part of the problem.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T21:34:48.440836Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"bro risking 6000k to get $150 , moron midcurved mf",YES,NO,False,True,696.5786,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T07:45:52.171912Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"the guy with $10,000,000 sold it all for nothing. u really think hes that dumb. it was a jacket",NO,NO,True,True,64.1299,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T23:39:11.651832Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Someone propose Yes for $750 to see result. if yall continue to buy Yes then just give away your money to No. The court ,NO,NO,True,True,1428.6311,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:20:47.423979Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Naichli bought 8,078 No at 79.1c ($6,390), lol crazy work this",YES,NO,False,True,52.5559,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T18:35:28.552384Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,i think selling was the wrong move @insect-killer,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T15:23:12.758362Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I only spread the realest facts,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T09:38:18.891896Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,So should I put my savings in yes?,YES,YES,True,True,3.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T14:25:31.972148Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"'Vaboss bought 44,509 Yes at 74.1 ($32,969)' ????",NO,YES,False,True,152.4607,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T17:11:01.345398Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,If this does not result in yes then I do not see how anyone can continue to trust Polymarket. The world media are callin,YES,YES,True,True,132.35,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T21:27:53.050053Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Of course it is, Grok isn't holding No positions so it tells the truth.",YES,YES,True,True,1306.0095,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:38:39.306455Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"No it shows people like you have very poor understanding of risk/reward, with $8k down, already underwater and at _most_",YES,NO,False,True,74.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T07:09:48.564873Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"it really, really isn't. you're not going to 4x your investment, get over it.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T18:46:36.001851Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Why would you need evidence of something that didn't happen?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T23:05:23.563295Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Which brokie on yes has the $1500 for a double dispute later? Doesn't seem like many of you even have $15 left,NO,NO,True,True,2957.8127,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:07:00.054952Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Guy has dropped $6k hoping to make..... $180. And already underwater. lmao.,YES,NO,False,True,69.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T06:33:33.447783Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"UMA holders be like: ""We bet $200M on that we are credible reporting""",YES,NO,False,True,297.5,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T14:33:07.373417Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Yeschumps NO CRYING AT THE CASINO!,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T22:33:06.183082Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"why is forbes talking about a $3.7M Problem, when there are $178M involved?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19.28,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T16:08:46.513Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The whales are complaining they are out of money. They have to spend $9700 for each of our $300.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.165,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T13:00:41.426109Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Are you getting enough attention 90 dollars warren buffet ? ??,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,654.08,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:08:17.643165Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"No one is afraid, we are just baffled by your stubborness. This is not our first rodeo",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T06:07:43.196717Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,what a risk? Looool. i bet this like a three monta. i gained 300-400 bucks for a little bets here,NO,YES,False,True,553.1139,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T13:56:37.101862Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The right mindset is to gamble for fun, not for winning. I'm glad I didn't dump more than $10 for a rigged game.",YES,NO,False,True,1.35,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T21:48:53.800563Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Where does it say that they cant change their minds and credible reporting wasnt really present last resolve people were,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T09:38:41.134178Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,google ukraine mineral deal. aenews was scamming back then as well.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T14:04:32.611288Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Imagine having 0 testosterone and holding NO for a $50 gain, you've failed your bloodline",YES,YES,True,True,83323.0088,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T06:49:33.130259Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Anybody find it strange that the top seven or eight no holders have been millions of dollars each to win $1000-$4000 in ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,628.3427,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T16:45:12.921239Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"guys if you speak the truth they will disable your ability to post, I am on a second acc",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T13:20:06.461146Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,How would that make sense? He would then have more shares in Yes and would earn more if this was resolved as Yes,YES,YES,True,True,1776.2127,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T15:44:13.955616Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Anybody who says the outcome will resolve to NO because UMA whales are able to manipulate the voting process are missing,YES,YES,True,True,228.6589,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T07:06:35.082435Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I bought it about two months ago, and from that angle it does look like I'm being scammed",YES,NO,False,True,70.4475,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T14:13:35.006298Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I'm just a regular dude who think he did not wear a suit : why are Yessies telling me I don't even exist?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T12:54:16.544016Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Sorry guys, i just shorted a bit, still think he was wearing a suit",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T15:17:28.918185Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Commodity Exchange Act (CEA): The CFTC has already fined Polymarket $1.4M for offering unregulated prediction markets. I,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,27.1724,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T22:30:55.154376Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,funny how YES holders think that earning 2% in a week is a scam and trying to make 50x in a day isn't a scam,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T21:59:42.324686Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I bought yes then saw aenews2 and car and already knew how this show is gonna go down,NO,NO,True,True,6964.4029,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T05:45:56.349445Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Yeah, I made 15 bucks and you made -600. Way to go!",NO,NO,True,True,553.1139,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T00:47:08.810638Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"nsect-Killer sold 3,591,971 Yes at 0.3 ($11,071) 8h ago Insect-Killer sold 2,175,504 Yes at 0.5 ($11,017)",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,82.67,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-09T00:20:19.644272Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For those unaware, market will resolve N in the next 20 minutes. Do not fall for the scam comments indicating an ""emerge",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T08:57:52.851268Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"nfng, just bros has a short memory and can¡¯t remember what happened a month ago",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T10:33:06.126496Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Over the past few days, I¡¯ve acquired more than 70k UMA tokens. When a contract with a market cap above $100 million-su",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1494.2392,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T06:26:53.606336Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,you should know you are the king of uma,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T00:49:40.480987Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"they are not blind, they are scammers",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:10:27.613259Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Just $20 million can buy up all the YES orders......,NO,YES,False,True,0.9999,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T11:01:20.184086Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Wow, this hasent been resolved yet. No matter which way it goes I just want to say. HE DID WEAR A SUIT.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T13:31:07.019346Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I will enjoy a small bucket of fried chicken from this win. Cheers guys!,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T15:39:47.934538Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Over the past few days, I¡¯ve acquired more than 70k UMA tokens. When a contract with a market cap above $100 million-su",NO,YES,False,True,1494.2392,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T16:26:24.706055Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,some yes holders have like $20 invested and are on the discord for 8 hrs a day messaging lmfaooooo,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2957.8127,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T03:11:55.233788Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"$250, smartie :) at least put the dollar symbol in the correct spot",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,237.6427,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T12:04:12.730046Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,In 12 hours they will be revealed,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T00:04:39.469056Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,A market $40m was scammed. What are u talking about lol,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1428.6311,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:01:45.979215Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I'd be mad too if I bought at 83c and its now 77, -88 btw",YES,NO,False,True,52.5559,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T12:35:29.436512Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"don't worry, after 5 days u will be able to buy 0.1c NO, howmuch ever u want",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T14:28:40.826773Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"yes, if you buy more yes this will be disputed 100%",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T09:59:25.993722Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"chill bro ur 600 shares are worth 100 bucks lol, and will be zero soon",NO,NO,True,True,383.72,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T08:46:40.959449Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,How do you have the nerves to reply like that to someone with PnL +$1m on this platform. Even if he were to lose $500k h,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2396.9568,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T19:44:40.047266Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For a $66 million market and a fact covered by over 50 major news outlets, if UMA whales still manage to reach a ""consen",YES,YES,True,True,92.5303,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T00:41:57.578943Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Let me summarise this to you. Polymarket have got themselves in a very tricky situation. This has $140M VOLUME, meaning ",YES,NO,False,True,1330.5517,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T01:48:53.723997Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I pray we reach these levels brother,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T14:37:37.785305Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I would gladly pay someone $250 for $200 in USDT gang, yes to the moon",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:41:47.764518Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"And here we have a genius putting $8k on the line in the hopes to win.. checks notes, $250.",YES,NO,False,True,74.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T21:10:41.582533Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"you don't understand the point of alts, enjoy losing your $10 though",NO,NO,True,True,1115.0401,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T20:23:57.992338Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I just know these whales gonna win again. Fuck it 2 dollars means shit,YES,NO,False,True,2.31,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T20:54:57.818961Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Imagine risking 20.000 to earn 120dollars and thinking you are warren buffet ??????. Pathetic low level men of failure ,YES,NO,False,True,654.08,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T08:15:46.261919Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,is it a suit? what is that? looks very lgbt,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T09:52:46.034228Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Suit jackets have one small pocket on the chest. Zelensky's jacket has 2 large pockets on the chest, that's a classic ca",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T12:55:13.742482Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Yes bettors, why are you not buying at 100x leverage, so you can make not 50x your money, but 5000?",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T15:28:03.004883Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I'm buying 1M shares at 0.1 to join the lawsuit,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T00:55:46.665357Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Click ""Propose resolution"". Select Yes and pay $750",YES,YES,True,True,1.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T00:10:31.448216Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I've never had so much FOMO. These whales are making 100k's free.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:42:16.260665Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"wow, 35k YES bet, what a guy!!!",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-28T06:28:51.122391Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Good luck bub, sure FBI will take your 10 dollar case real serious",NO,NO,True,True,122.617,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T04:48:17.594327Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Thank you for your $750 donation,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,830.1736,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T19:51:10.060897Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I'm simply on the Yes side because I prefer chaos above boring and often actually quite risky ''bonding'' shenanigans.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T21:39:57.319662Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Just imagine the face of someone who risked $126,886.60 to win $129,955.90 - if the answer turns out to be 'YES'",YES,NO,False,True,2496.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T05:28:53.240534Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"""The largest single UMA holder to reveal his vote so far has revealed he voted for YES. Let's see how this goes. Truth a",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T06:05:31.348848Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,-600 bucks. i recommend you to spend your super gain for gas.,NO,NO,True,True,553.1139,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T16:52:28.597473Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,send links so we can deal damage,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..adeffbe4df7f88a3a43e4e38875f85484e27d36c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,61 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-05T07:09:07.308558Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,nigga so much evidence and we r losing ???????????? how? What is the evidence that the proposed outcome changed to NO?,hold,decrease,False,True,54.6261,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T18:10:37.329811Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"If you don't vote YES to UMA, we will lose and that's it. Only this will decide the outcome",decrease,increase,False,True,3457.32,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T15:32:46.492868Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,So you're telling me we're betting on polymarket resolving this to no while their own X account said it was a suit? Wtf,hold,flip,False,True,31.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T20:09:57.950249Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,What happened to insect killer?,hold,hold,True,True,566.28,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T21:41:14.920852Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Do not dispute lol it already resolved as P4,decrease,hold,False,True,1428.6311,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T09:12:12.358554Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Glitchy interface. It was 2 before, it became 1 for a little bit (god knows why/how). And now it's back to 2 disputed cl",flip,hold,False,True,142.2592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T07:36:03.616098Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Zelensky quote. I will wear a suit once this war is over,flip,hold,False,True,23.0303,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T18:18:19.234288Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"blame your cheap brothers who are too greedy to vote, because they maxed their funds betting on this market. they are a",flip,decrease,False,True,101.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T20:16:37.223219Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"resolve to a no , uma whales are broke scammers , they bought a votting coin that is going down the ZERO , they need to ",hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-09T00:01:29.592606Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Because you are fuc.... scammers....,decrease,decrease,True,True,518.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T08:10:30.885856Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"It seems legit, it's verified with a yellow tick",flip,hold,False,True,1.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T09:28:43.714442Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,what news outlet would suddenly make the reporting credible?,hold,decrease,False,True,745.3753,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T15:49:19.694052Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"They are buying hard because for the no-ers it's a sale, which is the point of this bump and the InsectKiller one too",flip,hold,False,True,60.8606,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:27:28.937595Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I want to buy 200 more Yes, can anyone help",hold,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T16:28:51.451194Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"This is about the facts and legal aspects, not just your ego.",increase,hold,False,True,720.49,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T19:15:28.418292Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Wait can you actually not write Abhisk Kylasa in chat without typos?,flip,hold,False,True,122.7871,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T23:35:16.982009Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,shayne's leaked DMs going viral on X now showing he's planning a 50/50 resolution to avoid more blowback from the media.,hold,flip,False,True,332.43,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T12:16:21.943762Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Don't worry guys, God promise me this trade 3000 years ago.",decrease,hold,False,True,136.3695,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-28T09:54:36.827176Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,yessers still being here is kinda creepy,flip,hold,False,True,837.5218,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T14:58:50.749372Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"punchbowl is already at -60K, he is up ho risk it all and end up losing all 5.7M",decrease,decrease,True,True,87.5992,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T00:53:39.554157Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,2-3% a day is worse than a savings account?,increase,decrease,False,True,1032.8975,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T16:05:16.326133Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Guys we need to reach 4.2 it will go up significantly and very fast,decrease,increase,False,True,806.3,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T07:57:12.179801Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Zelensky will meet with Trump today, - AFP.",flip,increase,False,True,87.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T17:22:38.980906Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,No holders coming out of the woodwork as the price starts to reflect the outcome. Any whales fancy buying anymore for so,increase,decrease,False,True,52.5559,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T19:26:47.938591Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,For every 3 cents we buy they need to find 97 cents to counter ??,hold,increase,False,True,49.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T23:40:04.593056Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Can it be disputed another time?,hold,decrease,False,True,77.5153,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T23:11:14.824486Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Elon, the minimum amount is 20 dollars. You can check my past trades and see that i have barely invested. Unfortunately ",increase,decrease,False,True,165.18,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:13:41.207045Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,vom gimme some dollars so i can buy more yes like you,increase,increase,True,True,18.7782,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T23:32:29.051929Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Ask AI what is the definition of suit and then ask the question. Look in the dictionary and be such WOW,decrease,hold,False,True,77.3144,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T17:56:22.113294Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Im not materialistic lol so that would be good for me, I'll just invest it instead",increase,hold,False,True,3.04,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:01:45.979215Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I'd be mad too if I bought at 83c and its now 77, -88 btw",increase,decrease,False,True,52.5559,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T14:17:20.544806Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Most news agencies have already informed the world that the Ukrainian President attended the NATO leaders' meeting in a ,hold,decrease,False,True,708.4325,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T20:06:19.435824Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Yes sorry here is a picture of him wearing the suit. The buttons clearly go all the way down,flip,increase,False,True,536.62,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T13:41:06.946226Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,It¡¯s very good that it¡¯s also an American company.,increase,hold,False,True,319.67,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T23:47:45.457601Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,uma will agree it's a different suit,flip,hold,False,True,986.0387,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T19:21:13.319466Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,If UMA¡¯s manipulate this and it¡¯s a no let¡¯s make it go viral and ensure no one ever uses polymarket again,decrease,flip,False,True,1311.68,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T13:56:59.674572Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,All the normal YES holders won't let go of their position because they know how the market works. ??????,hold,hold,True,True,708.4325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T15:28:40.500187Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"You have no idea what kind of people are in front of the phone and you just judge, that¡¯s the only thing.",decrease,hold,False,True,1324.46,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:30:50.743432Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,this poor has been scraping his pennys together for days and has infinite conviction but only 10k? hahhahahaha i suspect,decrease,decrease,True,True,670.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T11:46:50.989166Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"""The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds ",increase,hold,False,True,461.6304,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T22:51:00.338855Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Im tripping on acid rn and this shit is hilarious lmal,decrease,hold,False,True,114.58,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T22:33:15.978527Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,You know my name better HelpMe,increase,hold,False,True,37.912,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T07:34:49.125097Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,What zelensky was wearing is not a suit.,flip,hold,False,True,23.0303,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-24T22:58:57.779101Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Could you pull up like that to an Interview? Yes. Would the person interviewing you say you need to wear a tie its not a,flip,decrease,False,True,69.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T12:48:02.081459Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"This is lovely, yes are winning on socials too",hold,increase,False,True,214.1737,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:45:54.522076Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,russian netizens on forum similar to 4chan (2ch) widely discuss and make fun of the fact that Zelenskyy was wearing a su,decrease,hold,False,True,55.1582,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T09:56:23.318053Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"i'm going to go with neither, thanks tho",increase,hold,False,True,1032.8975,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T11:46:36.949269Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,?? How hillarious Yes voters don't even know the meaning of P4,decrease,hold,False,True,136879.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T14:13:17.229906Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"At least if ""no"" wins I'll take comfort that trash like you lose more",hold,hold,True,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T11:08:34.231311Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I think we all agree at this point it's not down to whether he wore a suit, just if going P2 would cost the whales eithe",flip,hold,False,True,0.045,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T22:08:49.508504Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"There's no consensus. The Daily Beast, Reuters, Euronews, Firstpost, The Times all implied or directly said it wasn't a ",increase,decrease,False,True,958.5917,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T01:39:00.295289Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Exactly, if it¡¯s a suit is a mute point, it¡¯s been reported on satisfying the criteria, Uma is just manipulating this",increase,increase,True,True,462.4518,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T18:49:10.369401Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,We all know they don't even deserve anything else.,increase,hold,False,True,196.9125,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T19:14:46.365906Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Guys Fill Me in the news? Why has price risen to 2.8 Cents,hold,hold,True,True,123.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T12:49:39.924195Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The chart for 1W looks so good for trading in 1.5-2.5$ interval. Sad that it ends in a few hours :(,flip,hold,False,True,31.48,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T16:13:48.573812Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Scammers are spoofing, they know the shit coin holders will not commit suicide. The fraud the exposed, PM is trying to s",decrease,decrease,True,True,92.5303,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T15:30:00.566471Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,That's the whole point of this small markets for beer money people haha,flip,hold,False,True,60.8606,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T11:05:59.381996Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,If he sells price will tank because no one will buy it.,hold,decrease,False,True,2396.9568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T12:22:02.228358Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"They are voting P3 and you should sell, you will thank me later",decrease,flip,False,True,394.16,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T11:28:56.512804Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Absolutely. That is the key point. KYC, or Know Your Customer, means there should already be verified ID and passport re",increase,hold,False,True,319.67,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..01fcea5d8555d871eaa35de774ddf0362332ad9b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +546814,2025-07-07T12:22:02.228358Z,"They are voting P3 and you should sell, you will thank me later",decrease,decrease,True +546814,2025-07-05T07:09:07.308558Z,nigga so much evidence and we r losing ???????????? how? What is the evidence that the proposed outcome changed to NO?,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-07T13:56:59.674572Z,All the normal YES holders won't let go of their position because they know how the market works. ??????,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-07T20:16:37.223219Z,"resolve to a no , uma whales are broke scammers , they bought a votting coin that is going down the ZERO , they need to ",hold,decrease,False +546814,2025-07-05T20:09:57.950249Z,What happened to insect killer?,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-06T19:26:47.938591Z,For every 3 cents we buy they need to find 97 cents to counter ??,hold,decrease,False +546814,2025-07-04T16:13:48.573812Z,"Scammers are spoofing, they know the shit coin holders will not commit suicide. The fraud the exposed, PM is trying to s",decrease,decrease,True +546814,2025-06-25T18:45:54.522076Z,russian netizens on forum similar to 4chan (2ch) widely discuss and make fun of the fact that Zelenskyy was wearing a su,decrease,decrease,True +546814,2025-07-07T17:27:28.937595Z,"I want to buy 200 more Yes, can anyone help",hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-04T23:32:29.051929Z,Ask AI what is the definition of suit and then ask the question. Look in the dictionary and be such WOW,decrease,hold,False +546814,2025-07-04T12:48:02.081459Z,"This is lovely, yes are winning on socials too",hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-07T14:58:50.749372Z,"punchbowl is already at -60K, he is up ho risk it all and end up losing all 5.7M",decrease,decrease,True +546814,2025-07-04T11:46:36.949269Z,?? How hillarious Yes voters don't even know the meaning of P4,decrease,hold,False +546814,2025-07-06T16:05:16.326133Z,Guys we need to reach 4.2 it will go up significantly and very fast,decrease,hold,False +546814,2025-07-07T23:30:50.743432Z,this poor has been scraping his pennys together for days and has infinite conviction but only 10k? hahhahahaha i suspect,decrease,decrease,True +546814,2025-07-09T00:01:29.592606Z,Because you are fuc.... scammers....,decrease,decrease,True +546814,2025-06-26T19:21:13.319466Z,If UMA¡¯s manipulate this and it¡¯s a no let¡¯s make it go viral and ensure no one ever uses polymarket again,decrease,decrease,True +546814,2025-06-25T21:41:14.920852Z,Do not dispute lol it already resolved as P4,decrease,hold,False +546814,2025-07-08T23:35:16.982009Z,shayne's leaked DMs going viral on X now showing he's planning a 50/50 resolution to avoid more blowback from the media.,hold,decrease,False +546814,2025-07-08T11:05:59.381996Z,If he sells price will tank because no one will buy it.,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-06T19:14:46.365906Z,Guys Fill Me in the news? Why has price risen to 2.8 Cents,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-08T23:40:04.593056Z,Can it be disputed another time?,hold,decrease,False +546814,2025-07-05T09:28:43.714442Z,what news outlet would suddenly make the reporting credible?,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-04T12:16:21.943762Z,"Don't worry guys, God promise me this trade 3000 years ago.",decrease,hold,False +546814,2025-07-07T15:28:40.500187Z,"You have no idea what kind of people are in front of the phone and you just judge, that¡¯s the only thing.",decrease,hold,False +546814,2025-07-06T14:17:20.544806Z,Most news agencies have already informed the world that the Ukrainian President attended the NATO leaders' meeting in a ,hold,decrease,False +546814,2025-07-02T22:51:00.338855Z,Im tripping on acid rn and this shit is hilarious lmal,decrease,hold,False +546814,2025-07-03T14:13:17.229906Z,"At least if ""no"" wins I'll take comfort that trash like you lose more",hold,hold,True +546814,2025-06-25T15:32:46.492868Z,So you're telling me we're betting on polymarket resolving this to no while their own X account said it was a suit? Wtf,hold,decrease,False +546814,2025-07-03T18:10:37.329811Z,"If you don't vote YES to UMA, we will lose and that's it. Only this will decide the outcome",decrease,hold,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a3306f06772a8bd2b041eecff46f88175719372d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +546814,2025-07-05T20:09:57.950249Z,What happened to insect killer?,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-06-28T09:54:36.827176Z,yessers still being here is kinda creepy,flip,hold,False +546814,2025-07-07T20:16:37.223219Z,"resolve to a no , uma whales are broke scammers , they bought a votting coin that is going down the ZERO , they need to ",hold,flip,False +546814,2025-07-06T19:26:47.938591Z,For every 3 cents we buy they need to find 97 cents to counter ??,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-06-25T20:06:19.435824Z,Yes sorry here is a picture of him wearing the suit. The buttons clearly go all the way down,flip,hold,False +546814,2025-07-07T13:56:59.674572Z,All the normal YES holders won't let go of their position because they know how the market works. ??????,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-04T12:48:02.081459Z,"This is lovely, yes are winning on socials too",hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-05T07:09:07.308558Z,nigga so much evidence and we r losing ???????????? how? What is the evidence that the proposed outcome changed to NO?,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-07T17:27:28.937595Z,"I want to buy 200 more Yes, can anyone help",hold,hold,True +546814,2025-06-26T09:12:12.358554Z,"Glitchy interface. It was 2 before, it became 1 for a little bit (god knows why/how). And now it's back to 2 disputed cl",flip,hold,False +546814,2025-06-26T07:36:03.616098Z,Zelensky quote. I will wear a suit once this war is over,flip,flip,True +546814,2025-06-25T07:57:12.179801Z,"Zelensky will meet with Trump today, - AFP.",flip,hold,False +546814,2025-07-06T15:49:19.694052Z,"They are buying hard because for the no-ers it's a sale, which is the point of this bump and the InsectKiller one too",flip,flip,True +546814,2025-07-03T18:18:19.234288Z,"blame your cheap brothers who are too greedy to vote, because they maxed their funds betting on this market. they are a",flip,hold,False +546814,2025-06-26T07:34:49.125097Z,What zelensky was wearing is not a suit.,flip,hold,False +546814,2025-06-26T23:47:45.457601Z,uma will agree it's a different suit,flip,hold,False +546814,2025-06-24T22:58:57.779101Z,Could you pull up like that to an Interview? Yes. Would the person interviewing you say you need to wear a tie its not a,flip,hold,False +546814,2025-07-08T23:35:16.982009Z,shayne's leaked DMs going viral on X now showing he's planning a 50/50 resolution to avoid more blowback from the media.,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-08T11:05:59.381996Z,If he sells price will tank because no one will buy it.,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-06-25T15:32:46.492868Z,So you're telling me we're betting on polymarket resolving this to no while their own X account said it was a suit? Wtf,hold,flip,False +546814,2025-07-08T23:40:04.593056Z,Can it be disputed another time?,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-05T09:28:43.714442Z,what news outlet would suddenly make the reporting credible?,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-06-25T08:10:30.885856Z,"It seems legit, it's verified with a yellow tick",flip,hold,False +546814,2025-07-06T14:17:20.544806Z,Most news agencies have already informed the world that the Ukrainian President attended the NATO leaders' meeting in a ,hold,flip,False +546814,2025-07-07T12:49:39.924195Z,The chart for 1W looks so good for trading in 1.5-2.5$ interval. Sad that it ends in a few hours :(,flip,hold,False +546814,2025-07-04T11:08:34.231311Z,"I think we all agree at this point it's not down to whether he wore a suit, just if going P2 would cost the whales eithe",flip,hold,False +546814,2025-07-06T19:14:46.365906Z,Guys Fill Me in the news? Why has price risen to 2.8 Cents,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-06T15:30:00.566471Z,That's the whole point of this small markets for beer money people haha,flip,hold,False +546814,2025-07-03T14:13:17.229906Z,"At least if ""no"" wins I'll take comfort that trash like you lose more",hold,flip,False +546814,2025-06-27T19:15:28.418292Z,Wait can you actually not write Abhisk Kylasa in chat without typos?,flip,hold,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..01f3949e0bd82a579e11c2d2c914980d32524f29 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,61 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-02T00:58:24.795935Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The guy has a public account , he even has his degree from San Diego",hold,hold,True,True,625.61,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T22:19:51.189414Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,they can't theres whales in no vote that dont joke around about those things.,hold,flip,False,True,48.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T14:45:22.248626Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Polymarket is unregulated ain't no authority helping lmao,decrease,decrease,True,True,1550.213,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T08:30:01.442588Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Easiest money I've made in a long time,flip,increase,False,True,563.6742,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T12:37:14.099869Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,sfo when they pay you a visit soon m8,decrease,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-28T09:28:26.318255Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,insane how this is always rigged,hold,decrease,False,True,199.005,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T16:22:02.023747Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"i don't see anything from MSM that calls it a suit. ""CNN News Click 18"" doesn't count as CNN lol",flip,increase,False,True,1.3034,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T21:51:19.268764Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,It was a suit lmao. Better luck next time.,flip,flip,True,True,296.3898,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-09T00:01:08.459451Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"990k of disposable income and no idea how it works, smh",hold,decrease,False,True,2.8253,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T16:48:30.825585Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"in ~7 hours, the 'No' side will learn that a suit doesn't mean a tuxedo",flip,flip,True,True,18.9809,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T17:57:28.275426Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"i just want thonker to go broke. polymarket gods, grant me this wish",flip,hold,False,True,83323.0088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T05:33:53.127977Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,And ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free,decrease,hold,False,True,158.6101,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T01:38:04.294288Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Fuck the votes, they are not credible media consensus or whatever",hold,hold,True,True,635.8569,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T00:31:17.550918Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,have you seen the shaman voodoo theyve been doing?,hold,hold,True,True,120291.2894,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T13:53:52.733297Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Top 3 NO holders more than 260K down on this cumulatively...,increase,decrease,False,True,3098.6297,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:06:43.385608Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,They voted no due to the lack of media reporting it to be a suit. Almost all major news networks have reported this outf,flip,increase,False,True,156.35,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T17:46:57.235189Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,where is uma link for the dispute and why it was rejected?,decrease,decrease,True,True,591.6891,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T18:15:14.753184Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"This market is ambiguous, and while I personally don't think its a suit, it would have been reasonable for this market t",flip,hold,False,True,4812.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T18:48:02.747848Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"amen brotha, but you'll need more than courage. you'll need those cheap maggot soldiers to vote and get other whales. i",flip,hold,False,True,101.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T12:58:04.986395Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,He's a bottom feeder. For attention and pennies,hold,decrease,False,True,654.08,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T01:30:34.617988Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Sure but it was also clear that the resolver is uma so that¡¯s not to be neglected. As seen with other markets, when the",decrease,decrease,True,True,19.28,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T16:53:23.590986Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,how did yes spike to 58.9% today at 3:18pm for 1 MINUTE??? price manipulation?,increase,decrease,False,True,28.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T07:08:35.956549Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"News are just looking for the next headline, even if it's not true, he appeared wearing these clothes more than once, bu",decrease,hold,False,True,256.2802,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T13:43:11.725666Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Insect Killer, if you don¡¯t hold any UMA tokens, all you¡¯re doing is boosting the profits of those already in control.",hold,hold,True,True,1494.2392,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T17:57:12.500742Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Hi everyone - we¡¯re aware that some markets that were set to resolve between June 30th and July 1st are ""stuck"" after t",increase,hold,False,True,306.76,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T20:01:30.760255Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,you really think whales won't switch if it benefits them?,hold,decrease,False,True,10.9344,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T17:32:26.269567Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Okay look . There is a hidden organization which controls everything . Everyone knows that . Their plan right now was to,increase,increase,True,True,7.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:25:38.166435Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I asked Zelenskyy and he said it was a suit, I swear",decrease,increase,False,True,177.318,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T01:52:47.641577Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,UMA looks like P4 (TOO EARLY) THEN P2 (YES) IN 5 DAYS,flip,hold,False,True,1018.0372,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-30T13:59:43.627226Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Really stupid do they seriously think they¡¯ll get away with it? In the end, it¡¯s about the question of the bet; it¡¯s ",increase,decrease,False,True,146.48,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T13:01:07.182774Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Any reason they changed the second outcome proposed from ""Yes"" to ""No""? Changing it retroactively is sus af.",increase,hold,False,True,648.6442,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T09:33:58.081252Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Otherwise, it¡¯s going to be the biggest joke and funniest meme of 2025.",increase,increase,True,True,261.99,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T17:04:08.978567Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I placed order! Buy no for 2% bros! Lol,flip,flip,True,True,74.872,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-09T00:01:36.905077Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,it is like when i work on my thesis and keep naming the document final final final,hold,decrease,False,True,487.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T10:01:28.340117Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Can somebody explain when do we get the final review? Shouldn¡¯t it have been last night?,increase,decrease,False,True,83.36,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-09T00:07:01.157143Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Yeah but shouldnt it close automatically usually? Lol,decrease,hold,False,True,228.203,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T20:52:46.126909Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,its ALL OF MEDIA reporting vs UMA whales which get to define what a suit is,decrease,decrease,True,True,55.1582,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T10:19:00.576801Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I would also like to know. Vote started at Tue, 01 Jul 2025 03:51:31 GMT which should be late enough for ""too early"" to ",increase,hold,False,True,172.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T10:18:55.230449Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,hold on i have good news about it,decrease,increase,False,True,158.6101,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T18:35:33.965716Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Once that ticker runs down you'll have a reveal phase for the votes, which will be another 24 hours. The whales will be ",flip,flip,True,True,101.5,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T22:12:01.149827Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,dipshit its obvious both are your accounts,decrease,hold,False,True,55.1582,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T20:48:21.540908Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Your def well equipped for combat with how many Yes you hold! IHonor your Stalwart Resolve! (And your DCA into yes),hold,increase,False,True,2.3621,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T18:19:41.506154Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I want to win of course but at this point in rooting for insect killer to get his bag! Before his wife realizes he¡¯s mo,increase,decrease,False,True,237.1,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T08:09:58.161023Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,We'll be waiting for the meeting with Trump all the media will be writing about it.,flip,increase,False,True,87.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T16:05:11.641866Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,TRUTH MUST PREVAIL This clearly fits the definition of a suit. A suit is defined as a set of garments typically a jacket,hold,increase,False,True,49.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T03:19:03.335407Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,CookieJar bought yes yesterday then sold once he doubled what makes you think he wont buy yes last second and selll the ,decrease,decrease,True,True,251.38,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T22:03:06.315841Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Based on what I know, the current price of 3 cents is far below the actual probability of winning. it¡¯s a good time to ",decrease,increase,False,True,51.648,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T09:59:38.444467Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Are you guys seriously looking for other excuses now no-shows? Everyone says it was a suit. Who are you trying to fool? ,increase,increase,True,True,261.99,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-09T00:16:19.496698Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Come work for me insect! Have you ever been on a 121m boat?,increase,hold,False,True,1110.4544,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T21:47:34.219883Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,If you put a lot of money on yes I wud sell before results start,flip,decrease,False,True,0.0849,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T17:10:11.739917Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Watch now how this shit show resolve to yes when all whales buy yes at this price,hold,decrease,False,True,54.31,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T23:08:24.841852Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"what if, now bear with me, uma votes p1! and then... polymarket overturns it citing their clarification! then uma won't ",increase,hold,False,True,196399.9116,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T10:07:10.653675Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,We will fight until the very end and I have a lot of energy to see it through. Many others are ready to do the same.,hold,hold,True,True,806.3,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T14:25:55.386159Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"85mil market, if this goes to no bit all media consensus is Yes it will go in every news cast as the biggest scam made f",increase,increase,True,True,3.4924,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T22:34:22.370784Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,What reason is there not to be besides corruption?,flip,increase,False,True,546.4425,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T21:37:24.781368Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The designer of the suit himself shared an article saying it was a suit https://imgur.com/a/I4Q96Yz,flip,increase,False,True,536.62,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T17:25:43.216332Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,This site is not transparent in its evidence as they do not publish for bettors to access what type of consensus they ar,increase,decrease,False,True,27.41,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T14:09:40.001851Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,the volatility is absolutely insane,hold,decrease,False,True,16.7266,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T15:39:17.572576Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,did polymarket censor kal**i's name in the holders as well? they are afraid of them stealing their users lmao,decrease,hold,False,True,786.87,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T20:31:42.158998Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I have my own brain cell bitch,decrease,hold,False,True,240.3221,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e3186a7b0cb9d3d3cbbc734bd1d018d274822f48 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,61 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +546814,2025-06-27T14:48:00.157195Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,its yingwaboy the ceasefire tard,flip,hold,False,True,83323.0088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T18:57:13.325315Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Do you think it¡¯s possible that all of a sudden whales switch sides and start buying yes?!,flip,decrease,False,True,649.9357,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:06:25.974374Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The fact people are holding 6 figures of NO to win crumbs suggests they are being forced to hold, either for fear of bei",decrease,decrease,True,True,670.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T07:23:17.510741Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I'm ready to bombard you with negative reviews on both Polymarket's websites and Instagram if you opt for the scam.,hold,decrease,False,True,33.41,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:10:12.746935Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Prediction markets are the future, if there is one.",flip,hold,False,True,83323.0088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T06:40:13.461434Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Even Stake is more honest than this platform. lul,hold,decrease,False,True,21.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-24T23:53:04.519529Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,when do the uma people vote on this?,decrease,hold,False,True,170.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T13:20:52.113661Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,prefer casute in copac in padure :P,hold,hold,True,True,6749.9999,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T08:35:06.560876Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"suit full meaning: "" a set of outer clothes made of the same fabric and designed to be worn together, typically consisti",flip,hold,False,True,976.72,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T22:39:16.079658Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I'm ready to flood polymarket's Instagram with negative reviews if the result is not as expected,hold,increase,False,True,33.41,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T15:25:21.628203Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,You talking to yourself? Lol did you really put in $5k into this?!,hold,decrease,False,True,517.1948,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T16:11:33.117166Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Just sell your NOs. This makes no sense. Sell and save the rest. And buy Yes.,hold,increase,False,True,153.23,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:22:42.167754Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,i suggest you do these kinds of bets daily. see how that turns out for you. 2.7M % APY my ass. you don't even have 97% c,decrease,decrease,True,True,786.87,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T02:00:29.138665Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"the vote will be after a proposal, at most in 5-6 days",flip,hold,False,True,464.0745,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T06:54:43.741013Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"if you believe UMA right now, you're braindead",hold,decrease,False,True,314.0044,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T12:36:41.696661Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I disagree. It's obviously a suit and people not voting at all says so as well.,increase,increase,True,True,1562.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T13:23:54.605374Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,cryptotards are truly a special breed,flip,hold,False,True,83323.0088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T18:19:13.107435Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"!! If you don't vote YES to UMA, we will lose and that's it. Only this will decide the outcome",flip,increase,False,True,3457.32,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T06:37:50.882059Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,There's literally no way to win in any shape or form. I just took a look at the MLB Market and A SINGLE PERSON was able ,decrease,decrease,True,True,226.7963,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T17:21:23.665139Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"insect-killer, you are deeply mentally ill, you should be aware of that",flip,hold,False,True,83323.0088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T09:20:21.498511Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,just ask a random group of people in the population that have no stake in this if it was a suit. Chances are it won't be,decrease,flip,False,True,593.7092,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T18:56:17.633431Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,CONFIRMED!! Coplan is Insect_Killer!!!!,increase,hold,False,True,258.2823,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:52:25.559984Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,NOers better look behind the couch cushions and find change to save your loss positions,decrease,increase,False,True,100.1805,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T23:13:17.872833Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,insect killer is getting liquidated rn like james wynn,hold,hold,True,True,2957.8127,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-28T05:56:16.288925Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I¡¯m seriously considering reporting the platform and these accounts that manipulate the market to the FBI and Interpol.,increase,hold,False,True,2.2472,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T11:28:27.530981Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I didn't mean to pay this market, but I was angry at the tyranny of the whales, so I paid some money for solidarity",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T05:43:22.176357Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"It would be anarchy. For now, we live in a democracy with the rule of law.",increase,hold,False,True,196.9125,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T22:47:49.502615Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,There is no easy and obvious money on the polymarket. If No still does not cost 100 cents then there is a serious reason,increase,decrease,False,True,111.22,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T19:39:29.086432Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The designer of the suit shared an article calling it a suit @anisimov_menswear on instagram,flip,increase,False,True,536.62,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T17:57:08.024533Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,can you donate me instead please?,decrease,hold,False,True,116.29,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T10:00:56.016745Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Just reading more comments.. this isn¡¯t a suit??? Wtf planet do you all live on? This is 100% a suit.. all media outlet,increase,increase,True,True,10.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T00:57:02.961384Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"P4 was the trap, and they walked right into it. The event is over. The deadline passed. Yet they voted ""Too Early"", paje",increase,increase,True,True,1211.2644,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T17:57:23.541446Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,You dont get how these markets work. Even with a pump yes is not even at 25%. What does that tell you?,increase,increase,True,True,6964.4029,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T11:18:26.847931Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Have you seen this one? https://polymarket.com/sports/mlb/games/week/15/mlb-hou-lad-2025-07-04 PM you're a hoot!,hold,hold,True,True,11.6996,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T18:10:37.329811Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"If you don't vote YES to UMA, we will lose and that's it. Only this will decide the outcome",flip,increase,False,True,3457.32,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T13:13:24.600594Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,widely reported by several media outlets and an official Polymarket X account as a suit. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/,decrease,increase,False,True,112.3967,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T15:16:10.699243Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"thank u whales for the deepppp, more buyyyyy",hold,increase,False,True,56.8255,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-24T23:35:05.836888Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Not me lol. I went ""hard"" on the Cyber attack market.",decrease,hold,False,True,2.59,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T02:23:01.087608Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Maybe we should ask Chanel, Dior, Fendi, or Versace about what constitutes a suit? You know, all the houses the wives an",decrease,hold,False,True,353.1905,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T15:05:12.898131Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,When I tell you even Bitget has its eyes on this what more do you need most of the top 10 have a Bitget wallet this must,increase,hold,False,True,806.3,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T13:55:09.030072Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,insect killer has the whales TRAPPED,decrease,hold,False,True,83323.0088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T00:32:07.531114Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,There is no such thing as a suit. No is the only obvious answer. Suits don't exist.,flip,increase,False,True,1.67,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T20:45:10.490642Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For every like this gets, I'll buy $1 more of 'YES'.",increase,increase,True,True,1664.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T14:37:37.785305Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I would gladly pay someone $250 for $200 in USDT gang, yes to the moon",flip,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T01:03:13.951846Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Guys we need a plan B in case it goes wrong. What can we do if the outcome goes to no ?,hold,decrease,False,True,852.78,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T01:48:58.861627Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,They¡¯re selling a multimillion dollar lawsuit payout for one cent.,decrease,decrease,True,True,107.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:34:17.970783Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"There is a user holding 139k $ in this fucking bet at the average of 3cts. That¡¯s 4,5 million if things go well.",decrease,increase,False,True,68.875,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T21:48:14.005374Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,idk why no one make a memecoin for this,increase,hold,False,True,269.2356,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T13:53:24.636203Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"No important, we stick to truth.",hold,hold,True,True,201.34,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T17:21:20.846108Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Shut the fuck up , if those whales were on YES 4 people controlling 45% of market it would come with different outcome. ",flip,decrease,False,True,5.1582,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T23:52:36.086452Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,This is not what I asked u imbecile. If u asked me to list countries and I told u about my favorite fruit u¡®d look at m,increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:13:56.808029Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I think the 178m is how much has passed through the market? Is that diff to how much in bets is actually held? Still ,increase,hold,False,True,32.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T08:17:58.779485Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Can¡¯t believe there are still people paying for 0.99 for a lie which is worth 0,hold,flip,False,True,92.5303,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T16:27:14.658897Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Even ukraine says he wore a suit https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/suit-alert-zelenskyy-turns-heads-at-nato-1750842102.htm,increase,increase,True,True,55.2901,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T21:44:08.624972Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,NO holders panic selling on 10% loss KEKW,flip,hold,False,True,4.2732,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T01:06:07.607439Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,still better than insect killer losing couple of 100k's soon,decrease,hold,False,True,4163.0944,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T15:25:54.091542Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"kaIshihq is currently -$24,834.47",flip,decrease,False,True,83323.0088,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T22:29:34.185324Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"They would buried alive the rest of the credibility of Polymarket, their shitcoin would be rug pull, I doubt polymarket ",increase,hold,False,True,30.6214,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T15:32:53.012283Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"No whales merging to Yes, see what's coming",hold,hold,True,True,902.7262,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T09:42:11.280109Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Touch the grass and search how UMA and Polymarket clarificaction works, guys.",decrease,hold,False,True,136879.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e23117a96bc513524d612d63aa368a6c8cc1fe11 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,61 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-05T20:09:57.950249Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,What happened to insect killer?,hold,hold,True,True,566.28,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T07:09:07.308558Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,nigga so much evidence and we r losing ???????????? how? What is the evidence that the proposed outcome changed to NO?,hold,decrease,False,True,54.6261,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T07:36:03.616098Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Zelensky quote. I will wear a suit once this war is over,flip,hold,False,True,23.0303,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T09:12:12.358554Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Glitchy interface. It was 2 before, it became 1 for a little bit (god knows why/how). And now it's back to 2 disputed cl",flip,hold,False,True,142.2592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T21:41:14.920852Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Do not dispute lol it already resolved as P4,decrease,hold,False,True,1428.6311,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T15:32:46.492868Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,So you're telling me we're betting on polymarket resolving this to no while their own X account said it was a suit? Wtf,hold,flip,False,True,31.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T18:18:19.234288Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"blame your cheap brothers who are too greedy to vote, because they maxed their funds betting on this market. they are a",flip,decrease,False,True,101.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T18:10:37.329811Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"If you don't vote YES to UMA, we will lose and that's it. Only this will decide the outcome",decrease,increase,False,True,3457.32,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T15:49:19.694052Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"They are buying hard because for the no-ers it's a sale, which is the point of this bump and the InsectKiller one too",flip,hold,False,True,60.8606,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T16:28:51.451194Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"This is about the facts and legal aspects, not just your ego.",increase,hold,False,True,720.49,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:27:28.937595Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I want to buy 200 more Yes, can anyone help",hold,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T08:10:30.885856Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"It seems legit, it's verified with a yellow tick",flip,hold,False,True,1.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T09:28:43.714442Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,what news outlet would suddenly make the reporting credible?,hold,decrease,False,True,745.3753,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T23:35:16.982009Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,shayne's leaked DMs going viral on X now showing he's planning a 50/50 resolution to avoid more blowback from the media.,hold,flip,False,True,332.43,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T20:16:37.223219Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"resolve to a no , uma whales are broke scammers , they bought a votting coin that is going down the ZERO , they need to ",hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-09T00:01:29.592606Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Because you are fuc.... scammers....,decrease,decrease,True,True,518.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T19:15:28.418292Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Wait can you actually not write Abhisk Kylasa in chat without typos?,flip,hold,False,True,122.7871,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T16:05:16.326133Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Guys we need to reach 4.2 it will go up significantly and very fast,decrease,increase,False,True,806.3,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T07:57:12.179801Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Zelensky will meet with Trump today, - AFP.",flip,increase,False,True,87.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T14:58:50.749372Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"punchbowl is already at -60K, he is up ho risk it all and end up losing all 5.7M",decrease,decrease,True,True,87.5992,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-28T09:54:36.827176Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,yessers still being here is kinda creepy,flip,hold,False,True,837.5218,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T00:53:39.554157Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,2-3% a day is worse than a savings account?,increase,decrease,False,True,1032.8975,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T19:26:47.938591Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,For every 3 cents we buy they need to find 97 cents to counter ??,hold,increase,False,True,49.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T12:16:21.943762Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Don't worry guys, God promise me this trade 3000 years ago.",decrease,hold,False,True,136.3695,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T17:22:38.980906Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,No holders coming out of the woodwork as the price starts to reflect the outcome. Any whales fancy buying anymore for so,increase,decrease,False,True,52.5559,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T23:40:04.593056Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Can it be disputed another time?,hold,decrease,False,True,77.5153,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T23:11:14.824486Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Elon, the minimum amount is 20 dollars. You can check my past trades and see that i have barely invested. Unfortunately ",increase,decrease,False,True,165.18,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:13:41.207045Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,vom gimme some dollars so i can buy more yes like you,increase,increase,True,True,18.7782,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T20:06:19.435824Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Yes sorry here is a picture of him wearing the suit. The buttons clearly go all the way down,flip,increase,False,True,536.62,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T23:32:29.051929Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Ask AI what is the definition of suit and then ask the question. Look in the dictionary and be such WOW,decrease,hold,False,True,77.3144,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T17:56:22.113294Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Im not materialistic lol so that would be good for me, I'll just invest it instead",increase,hold,False,True,3.04,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:01:45.979215Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I'd be mad too if I bought at 83c and its now 77, -88 btw",increase,decrease,False,True,52.5559,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T14:17:20.544806Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Most news agencies have already informed the world that the Ukrainian President attended the NATO leaders' meeting in a ,hold,decrease,False,True,708.4325,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T23:47:45.457601Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,uma will agree it's a different suit,flip,hold,False,True,986.0387,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T13:41:06.946226Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,It¡¯s very good that it¡¯s also an American company.,increase,hold,False,True,319.67,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T19:21:13.319466Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,If UMA¡¯s manipulate this and it¡¯s a no let¡¯s make it go viral and ensure no one ever uses polymarket again,decrease,flip,False,True,1311.68,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T13:56:59.674572Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,All the normal YES holders won't let go of their position because they know how the market works. ??????,hold,hold,True,True,708.4325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:30:50.743432Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,this poor has been scraping his pennys together for days and has infinite conviction but only 10k? hahhahahaha i suspect,decrease,decrease,True,True,670.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T15:28:40.500187Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"You have no idea what kind of people are in front of the phone and you just judge, that¡¯s the only thing.",decrease,hold,False,True,1324.46,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T22:33:15.978527Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,You know my name better HelpMe,increase,hold,False,True,37.912,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T07:34:49.125097Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,What zelensky was wearing is not a suit.,flip,hold,False,True,23.0303,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T22:51:00.338855Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Im tripping on acid rn and this shit is hilarious lmal,decrease,hold,False,True,114.58,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T11:46:50.989166Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"""The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds ",increase,hold,False,True,461.6304,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-24T22:58:57.779101Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Could you pull up like that to an Interview? Yes. Would the person interviewing you say you need to wear a tie its not a,flip,decrease,False,True,69.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T12:48:02.081459Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"This is lovely, yes are winning on socials too",hold,increase,False,True,214.1737,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:45:54.522076Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,russian netizens on forum similar to 4chan (2ch) widely discuss and make fun of the fact that Zelenskyy was wearing a su,decrease,hold,False,True,55.1582,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T11:46:36.949269Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,?? How hillarious Yes voters don't even know the meaning of P4,decrease,hold,False,True,136879.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T09:56:23.318053Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"i'm going to go with neither, thanks tho",increase,hold,False,True,1032.8975,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T22:08:49.508504Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"There's no consensus. The Daily Beast, Reuters, Euronews, Firstpost, The Times all implied or directly said it wasn't a ",increase,decrease,False,True,958.5917,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T11:08:34.231311Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I think we all agree at this point it's not down to whether he wore a suit, just if going P2 would cost the whales eithe",flip,hold,False,True,0.045,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T14:13:17.229906Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"At least if ""no"" wins I'll take comfort that trash like you lose more",hold,hold,True,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T19:14:46.365906Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Guys Fill Me in the news? Why has price risen to 2.8 Cents,hold,hold,True,True,123.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T18:49:10.369401Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,We all know they don't even deserve anything else.,increase,hold,False,True,196.9125,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T15:30:00.566471Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,That's the whole point of this small markets for beer money people haha,flip,hold,False,True,60.8606,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T01:39:00.295289Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Exactly, if it¡¯s a suit is a mute point, it¡¯s been reported on satisfying the criteria, Uma is just manipulating this",increase,increase,True,True,462.4518,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T16:13:48.573812Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Scammers are spoofing, they know the shit coin holders will not commit suicide. The fraud the exposed, PM is trying to s",decrease,decrease,True,True,92.5303,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T11:05:59.381996Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,If he sells price will tank because no one will buy it.,hold,decrease,False,True,2396.9568,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T12:49:39.924195Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The chart for 1W looks so good for trading in 1.5-2.5$ interval. Sad that it ends in a few hours :(,flip,hold,False,True,31.48,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T12:22:02.228358Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"They are voting P3 and you should sell, you will thank me later",decrease,flip,False,True,394.16,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T11:28:56.512804Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Absolutely. That is the key point. KYC, or Know Your Customer, means there should already be verified ID and passport re",increase,hold,False,True,319.67,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..25a25c1aa05dcabfd51c8445126a4ef0290d9efb --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,61 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +546814,2025-06-26T08:30:01.442588Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Easiest money I've made in a long time,flip,increase,False,True,563.6742,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T12:31:52.116352Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Yep, imagine you getting donated a free car by the worker class, lol",flip,hold,False,True,8329.132,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T06:54:13.309058Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Thats not gonna happen. P4 Voters are the Whales that keep on dragging out the big bets. You can most certainly count ev,decrease,flip,False,True,226.7963,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T03:22:42.701849Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,He will almost certainly be doxxed and publicly sure if true,hold,hold,True,True,232.4518,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T15:11:27.400409Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Going back to the ""how many times Elon will tweet this week"" bets, at least those cannot be rigged ??",decrease,decrease,True,True,60.9691,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T08:09:58.161023Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,We'll be waiting for the meeting with Trump all the media will be writing about it.,flip,increase,False,True,87.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T19:20:20.682409Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Hopefully You suffer from a sickness and beg God to spare your life . You are stealing dirty money from Something that i,hold,hold,True,True,44.1302,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T10:24:39.702408Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,You can offer zelensky a 50% donation and he will prove that it was a suit,hold,increase,False,True,1510.1621,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T13:29:12.436496Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,?? IF EARLY REQUEST PASSES ITS HIGHLY LIKELY THE DISPUTE WILL BE SOLVED 50/50 (saves polymarkets credibility). THIS IS A,hold,decrease,False,True,654.08,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T08:35:06.560876Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"suit full meaning: "" a set of outer clothes made of the same fabric and designed to be worn together, typically consisti",flip,hold,False,True,976.72,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T10:01:23.620815Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,No brochacho I have faith deep under my humility and despair,hold,increase,False,True,23.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T02:00:29.138665Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"the vote will be after a proposal, at most in 5-6 days",flip,hold,False,True,464.0745,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T21:36:09.989044Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,MY BUY WALL WILL HOLD THE GREATEST ARMIES AT BAY. NOT EVEN TIME CAN WEATHER IT. ONE BUY WALL FOR MY CHILDREN. ONE BUY WA,decrease,increase,False,True,364.8546,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T00:45:28.635688Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"??THE DROIDS AND WHALES REVEALES THEIR VOTES FIRST (P4). The PEOPLE , will do it slowly over the day (23h). That's becau",hold,hold,True,True,654.08,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T11:12:04.140627Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"NO holders went through 7 nerve-wracking days .all that anxiety over potentially losing 99 cents, just to win 1 cent. Y",increase,increase,True,True,9.038,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T16:04:08.615024Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,aura among retards is not worth 300k,flip,decrease,False,True,83323.0088,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T14:37:37.785305Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I would gladly pay someone $250 for $200 in USDT gang, yes to the moon",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T15:48:03.640291Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"ven if the dispute was initiated before June 30, the factual condition was satisfied on June 24. ¡®Too Early¡¯ is logica",flip,increase,False,True,62.332,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T22:19:47.928507Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I just deposited to buy more GOGOGOGO,decrease,increase,False,True,127.9915,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T19:30:14.900421Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Can you provide me with those accounts.,decrease,hold,False,True,1.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T03:20:36.063077Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Stop talking about the bullshit,when Zelenskyy want wear suit, he will wear a real suit. We all know that will resolve ",increase,increase,True,True,13.762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T09:08:27.095306Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The truth will force the whales to bleed!!!!,decrease,increase,False,True,417.779,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T21:36:29.829751Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"This is the correct link, it allows you to select yes no ect. The link on this page is broken",flip,hold,False,True,536.62,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T06:45:13.897257Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"take a little time and re-examine the issue, taking into account new details. compare his clothes at the funeral of the ",hold,decrease,False,True,2299.33,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:29:09.529032Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,i want 12k$ can anyone help... bro send money on you account that seems like a nice bet to risk some money,increase,decrease,False,True,74.98,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T12:12:38.738837Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,it was big scandal if resolve to NO,hold,hold,True,True,155.075,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T23:05:18.500607Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"you're right, you're RIGHT. its not even close",increase,increase,True,True,196399.9116,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T12:20:10.631327Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,It¡¯s a suit man I don¡¯t know what to tell you. Hopefully this platform is honest.,increase,hold,False,True,10.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T22:47:43.485371Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Win or lose, one thing¡¯s certain - I¡¯m part of digital history. I have no doubt that what happened here will resurface",increase,hold,False,True,981.8129,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T17:21:23.665139Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"insect-killer, you are deeply mentally ill, you should be aware of that",flip,hold,False,True,83323.0088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:37:30.012321Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Unbelievable generational outcome if they hold it until the outcome and get a YES.,increase,increase,True,True,74.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T14:48:33.929331Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Erm technically this isn't betting. ??,increase,hold,False,True,4.4168,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T17:26:18.678821Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"A man of the Lord, that's right",decrease,hold,False,True,101.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T09:49:35.787141Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"They only have 100k in this, one-tenth of the ""no"" whales' positions.",hold,decrease,False,True,42.4999,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T21:40:52.146933Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I would agree, but the rules don't state it has to be",flip,hold,False,True,536.62,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T17:07:31.829758Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Massive sell off. Thanks for the discounts!,decrease,decrease,True,True,106.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T09:00:32.618717Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,theyre gonna buy a happy meal with that,decrease,decrease,True,True,428.8347,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T01:06:07.607439Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,still better than insect killer losing couple of 100k's soon,hold,hold,True,True,4163.0944,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-03T15:44:54.646499Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Well, you're usually buried in a suit and tie. So we can't rule out a positive market outcome.",decrease,flip,False,True,8.3,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-24T01:10:13.878358Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Yep, Before June was a filthy market. Hoping it doesn't happen again.",increase,decrease,False,True,4.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T08:49:52.748462Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"idk might be different now, they have much more on the line now",decrease,decrease,True,True,593.7092,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T05:13:21.607807Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"NO is about to lose consensus, the flip is coming.",increase,flip,False,True,745.3753,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T00:38:54.232699Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"UMA is corrupt. More money = more tokens = more voting power. Just look at the top NO holders vs YES holders. No chance,",flip,flip,True,True,79.2342,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T21:52:51.295933Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,My take is that the p4 today as invalid even in umas rules will force some 50/50. Now what insect killer said yesterday ,hold,decrease,False,True,2219.0631,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T17:11:01.345398Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,If this does not result in yes then I do not see how anyone can continue to trust Polymarket. The world media are callin,flip,increase,False,True,132.35,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T21:03:59.351342Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"propose yes then, lose your $750 when it goes p4",decrease,flip,False,True,1115.0401,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T07:04:05.665418Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"BBC, CNN, the sun, my post, the designer of the suit¡­ What more do you need?",decrease,increase,False,True,308.0313,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T17:57:28.275426Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"i just want thonker to go broke. polymarket gods, grant me this wish",flip,hold,False,True,83323.0088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T07:43:56.396008Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"This is insane it¡¯s getting to this, doesn¡¯t everyone agree? Like, is Polymarket ready to tank their own platform? See",increase,increase,True,True,64.504,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T05:14:03.307515Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"How ugly you all are, I swear I¡¯m so sure you¡¯re all ugly. Do you think others don¡¯t have money too?",hold,hold,True,True,457.2748,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T14:49:51.330744Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Lol they closed trust pilot cuz people were pointing out the whale manipulation. What a clown show,increase,decrease,False,True,78.724,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T05:11:52.413409Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,is the voting going to yes? safe to buy more?,increase,increase,True,True,349.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T00:42:26.359756Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Frozen, you need to boil fresh ones and because cutting also takes some time I usually just use frozen. Some frozen frie",hold,hold,True,True,9383.1848,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T23:09:46.580751Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,damn bro loses money but is for the truth youre a good man,increase,decrease,False,True,148.56,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T22:37:16.554437Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,If nothing is proposed this resolves as 'No'?,decrease,decrease,True,True,41.9884,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T18:03:06.775589Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"**This is not a shitcoin.** If you are new to polymarket, I understand desperately wanting it to be possible to make 50x",flip,increase,False,True,4812.8,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T15:51:12.212307Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"If this resolves as P4 - ""Too Early"", it confirms the system is broken beyond repair. The event window clearly closed on",flip,decrease,False,True,83323.0088,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T10:35:07.930112Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"He is wearing a suit since it is a signal that he wants to meet with Trump, from New York post , https://x.com/nypost/st",increase,increase,True,True,21674.79,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T13:27:51.085613Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"DONT SELL YOUR YES SHARES, LET THE WHALES BLEED",decrease,increase,False,True,61.05,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T19:54:39.027167Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Alternative reality man, you have seen suit with 4 pockets??? I¡¯m honestly questioning how is that market legal and how",hold,decrease,False,True,3.61,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b04dca9ad7dd5a75edb39cdbc7078e6af0b26759 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,61 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-03T14:27:07.450609Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,reveal starts in 9 hours and 32 minutes,flip,hold,False,True,259.3256,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T09:35:40.059374Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The game is settled with a YES. Most media reports that Zelensky is ""wearing a suit"". Polymarket concludes with credible",flip,increase,False,True,598.9489,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T14:46:05.667609Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Even if zelensky himself said it's not a suit, that has nothing to do with how this is supposed to resolve according to ",decrease,decrease,True,True,18.66,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T01:15:59.188638Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Brother can you help me to buy 200 more Yes,hold,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T20:23:37.993271Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Unfortunely not. But if the person who made it is calling it a suit, who is a fashion designer then it is a suit",flip,decrease,False,True,536.62,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T04:20:54.154532Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I understand this but high yield savings doesn¡¯t bring you risk of loosing all at once,hold,decrease,False,True,2575.6166,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T19:46:24.687806Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Any major holder of UMA tokens with any sanity will never vote for NO this time. It's clear.,decrease,increase,False,True,92.5303,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T15:16:44.624181Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Bro there is no way in earth u lose money i know that u gonna get ur money somehow i dont know how but u get u're money ,hold,increase,False,True,54.31,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T18:48:42.026915Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"'This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is is photographed or videotaped wearing a suit between May 22",flip,hold,False,True,536.62,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T23:13:01.846356Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The Sun ¡°Zelensky swapped his signature battlefield khakis for a slick black suit today¡±,hold,increase,False,True,69.27,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T14:51:39.456095Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"If someone voted for Yes on the voting period, and they have not reveal it yet, can they change it to No on the UMA duri",hold,hold,True,True,17192.5421,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T13:11:26.041221Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Yes we will leave after this failed experiment and you'll be stock with Uma scammers to lose your money alone.,hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T18:44:08.585235Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Losing 200k is crazy. He probably could have made money if he sold at the right time. Theirs definitely going to be a ra,decrease,decrease,True,True,13.5058,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T09:15:49.768312Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,after two disputes UMA will vote. These votes are weighed by capital (read whales),flip,decrease,False,True,591.9623,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T12:52:11.781736Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Only the whales can save us now,hold,decrease,False,True,2179.7591,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T18:04:39.622031Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,IDGAF about liqudity and you. Truth is Truth but when Corruption is paired with truth yall are done,increase,hold,False,True,3.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T20:01:24.997087Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,the bond terrorist has arrived rip,flip,decrease,False,True,83323.0088,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T14:19:06.635677Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,32% chance for YES per the new voting!!!!!!!,flip,decrease,False,True,9.4022,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T14:26:08.596987Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"He was wearing a suit, but seriously, are you guys drunk here or what?",decrease,decrease,True,True,806.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T20:27:48.396195Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"if BTL votes ""Yes"", then P4 can't reach consensus and a new vote starts immediately, Not saying it's likely, but for som",flip,decrease,False,True,12.822,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T09:19:02.573737Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Because it doesnt matter if its a suit or not, just the vote at the poll counts who ever buys more UMA tokens to vote ba",decrease,hold,False,True,146.03,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T14:20:34.470297Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,the no whales making new account to buy now,increase,hold,False,True,0.565,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T11:46:36.949269Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,?? How hillarious Yes voters don't even know the meaning of P4,decrease,hold,False,True,136879.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T08:29:56.264472Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Don't forget to share this until it reaches Elon Musk himself: https://x.com/tatethebrand/status/1939695498933207337?t=8,hold,hold,True,True,210.0583,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T04:04:45.174729Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Unbutton that thing and put a tie on him and it's not even debatable that it's a suit. EZ Clap,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T07:48:48.475217Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Apes. Together. Strong. I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the coura,hold,increase,False,True,48.6088,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T05:28:01.994885Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The condition for a successful exit of this market has already been met. Because a general consensus has been created by,increase,increase,True,True,196.9125,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T22:04:49.879546Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Reminder that in 2 hours when the uma votes will start revealing there will still be a 24 hour period untill all votes a,increase,hold,False,True,65.7386,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T18:19:37.412473Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I'm not ridiculing anyone!! I'm actually being a nice guy right now!,flip,hold,False,True,4812.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T19:20:18.530019Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,i just can't wait to collect my money pls dont by anymore yes shares so whales switch sides,decrease,decrease,True,True,54.31,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T11:05:18.827207Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,They're the same hedge fund u dumb bitc*,increase,hold,False,True,63.8714,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T15:10:31.995255Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"we don¡¯t gaf about the UMA Vote outcome, it will just be disputed, polymarket will lose all credibility if they resolve",increase,hold,False,True,635.8569,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T07:12:36.499018Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,If everyone is so sure why doesn¡¯t everyone buy more ?,increase,decrease,False,True,149.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:01:17.066682Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"In an hour they'll take our money and be like "" we told you "" but you guys all all liars and cheaters and low educated",hold,decrease,False,True,49.2,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T14:13:01.275598Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Oh the anon is at 0.77 million YES shares now. I was gonna pssy out but nvm. The whales are secretly on YES lmao,flip,increase,False,True,142.2592,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-28T03:35:57.942467Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I¡¯m curious. aren¡¯t there any whales holding YES in UMA? Why is the P4 support rate 99%? The top two YES holders bough,decrease,decrease,True,True,46.35,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-08T00:34:46.357076Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,ur the idiot for having ur knees on the ground for a 2% gain . ur a flithy jew,hold,hold,True,True,49.2,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T19:53:40.983393Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"fucking BBC, Fox, BILD, NYPost, Kyiv Post, etc. etc. ALL wrote it was a suit",decrease,increase,False,True,55.1582,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T12:02:06.273592Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Nick Sortor (1 mln subs): Zelensky actually wore a SUIT this time https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1937608665185263684,decrease,increase,False,True,1078.1138,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T21:04:58.489525Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Propose outcome, they fixed the glitched dispute, erase twice yes, legit legit",increase,hold,False,True,3.61,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T16:00:54.984469Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,not getting enough traction in the news or on social media though. this is hardly trending on reddit. a few posts here a,decrease,decrease,True,True,786.87,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:22:53.256876Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I would never sell my mother's,flip,hold,False,True,8564.2069,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T12:59:09.093975Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,DUDE if it was really different it would be at least 50/50. Look at yes its at 19 barely,increase,flip,False,True,8413.8816,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T19:03:00.016553Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,An official polymarket twitter/x litterally called it a suit today,flip,increase,False,True,536.62,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T17:49:04.582785Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"We can only lose a few pennies while they stand to lose millions. HOLD TO 90++. ""WE ARE NOT HERE FOR SCRAPS, WE ARE ",hold,increase,False,True,654.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T21:54:25.591318Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Whales just holding the Narativ to get cheap into Yes TRUST,decrease,increase,False,True,113.3211,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T22:18:08.118252Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Yes mafia rise up against the whales,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-02T11:39:08.197972Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The fact that you¡¯re admitting it yourself is already enough to prove how stupid you are. Are you scared? Just earlier,",increase,hold,False,True,319.67,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T17:32:57.992582Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Brother I want to buy 200 more Yes, can you help me?",hold,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T09:05:30.357912Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Lol if this market resolve to no, i might just do only sports because there's no fee",flip,decrease,False,True,13.8,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-04T11:08:24.067333Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Did President Zelenskyy wear a suit? Certainly, this outfit involves a jacket and pair of pants that have been cut from ",increase,increase,True,True,132.15,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-05T09:28:55.445515Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Me and my lawyers tram are putting together the case already. They'rwe calculating that everything is on their side, but",increase,hold,False,True,458.37,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-27T22:20:50.184205Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"If you wear a suit without a tie, you¡¯re wearing a suit.",hold,hold,True,True,132.15,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-03T11:12:47.159419Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"let's all get uma tokens. we are putting more money here and losing. voting counts, not buying",increase,decrease,False,True,53.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-25T19:37:06.724189Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The designer called the First Ladies garment a suit,flip,flip,True,True,331.7,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-07T23:19:21.586855Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Lmao just sell why would you risk that,decrease,decrease,True,True,21.805,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T07:34:49.125097Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,What zelensky was wearing is not a suit.,flip,hold,False,True,23.0303,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T20:01:30.760255Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,you really think whales won't switch if it benefits them?,increase,decrease,False,True,10.9344,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-07-06T06:53:39.936112Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,This is the story of how a platform that is supposed to predict future events has become a sewer of manipulation and dec,hold,hold,True,True,708.4325,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +546814,2025-06-26T07:57:08.251757Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Hitler said he is not going to invade Poland. So what is happened anything but not invansion.,decrease,hold,False,True,12.795,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7494d176ef97971e2101f13a200ee1084d8602ef --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +1,0.15161821705426357,0.0225,-0.12911821705426357,DOWN,0.09109757598890271,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,1032,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0,0.19661434108527132,0.15161821705426357,-0.04499612403100775,DOWN,0.09204063751874744,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,1032,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d058e60429032ad8911f6777145ace0bee6f9ebf --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,7 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +2,0.17076923076923078,0.07854166666666665,-0.09222756410256414,DOWN,0.918568972585924,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,13,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.048377049180327876,0.0225,-0.025877049180327877,DOWN,0.14364678835847577,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,183,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.1015,0.15458854166666666,0.053088541666666655,UP,0.42514688601645106,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,4,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0,0.189177374301676,0.040704918032786884,-0.1484724562688891,DOWN,0.1247485663064845,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,1790,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.05,0.1171875,0.0671875,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,2,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.48124999999999996,0.1613541666666667,-0.31989583333333327,DOWN,0.8874613001493982,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,16,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7b1f2a04730fa52eb209f7ccc3691a392e070d10 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +552650,2025-06-28T05:37:17.247856Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"it will be a ""too early"" to decide, but at the moment it is equivalent to no general consensus and lack of definitive of",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-24T13:48:57.094009Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,and with that said we take some profit and extend our long No to august 15th thank you gentlemen its been a pleasure so ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-02T08:49:03.866906Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Amit Segal - Ministers were just updated: ¡°Hamas continues to cling to its refusal to agree to a framework for returnin,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T15:47:07.991873Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why do you think I hold 'no' lol,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-29T04:16:37.668513Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"If Witkoff's new deal is similar to his old one, Hamas will just reject again. If it's similar to what Hamas claims to h",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T11:34:31.742003Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Absolutely zero reason to be holding yes right now of youre in profit. The risk reward is horrible. The truth will be re,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-23T11:56:44.837794Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Keep holding yes-tards, your money will be of better use in my pocket",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T17:07:19.813383Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Lmao I love that I triggered you, why are you commenting so emotionally it¡¯s not deep. And don¡¯t speak to me about mon",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-24T06:57:45.334315Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"While StifflersMom sold at a lose, i wouldn't laugh, it's experienced player with very very good pnl, and he knows when ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-21T19:43:15.316568Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"After this resolves to YES, I will be donating $20 to the war victims",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T07:11:08.527914Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The way I see it and why I bought was that yes requires Iran or the IAEA.to officially declare it destroyed. Iran won't,",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-18T21:27:23.446427Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"Ye bro from what i understand there is this uma coin that decides what outcome happens, it's basically a stake to decide",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-11T07:24:43.328159Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"a shit ton of insiders on the middle eastern market, you never know",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T19:26:34.460087Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Definetly, thats a 2x on 800 bucks, fuck the ayatollah",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:33:57.735426Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It¡¯s free money that¡¯s why I bought. A payload of bunker busters, precisely aimed, can indeed destroy it. Easy.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-22T18:50:06.219957Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,We hope to reach a ceasefire can you read,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T21:44:46.037688Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"BREAKING: A Gaza deal could be reached as soon as tonight. Source: Barak Ravid, Axios",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-01T15:21:07.860643Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Can anyone fill my order at 74c lol, damn im panic selling",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:38:50.520643Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Bro u got 10 bucks in this market, why are you even playing haha",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-31T07:01:16.600146Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,i just want to ask why you consider the date of 15 of August ?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-20T09:11:50.155695Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Netanyahu¡¯s gamble, the Haredi bluff For Netanyahu, the Haredi threat is serious, but it¡¯s not the only one. Should he",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T13:15:23.933254Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,See what happens¡­surely there will be a class action if it results in YES,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T01:04:30.199348Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Liquidifier bought 5,000 Yes at 98.4 ($4,920) and that guy has 50Millions of volume traded. WHY? WTF is going on?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T22:22:12.421226Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Negotiation round 1 done its not over,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T01:05:52.954576Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,nigga you are down $250 LOL who are you to talk,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-03T00:05:10.531947Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"This time quite different, direct involve of Trump",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:27.649472Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Interesting find: Yes spiked from $0.70 to $0.90 four hours ago, right after a whale with 5.5M tokens voted Yes on UMA. ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:21:08.716493Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"tsybka sold 31,088 Yes at 98.4c ($30,595) GG",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T21:52:03.792034Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,sad it is unlikely to transfer into actual peace but whatever,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T11:01:52.169359Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why would Israel confirm they were destroyed? if they confirm it means Iran is no longer a threat which means they would,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T14:18:03.936247Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,pack it up the delusion is gonna end tmr when youll redeem ur 160k shares for 0 dollars average,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T22:55:32.065856Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"So guys, basically there are some guys like @Hull and @Tomdnc who are against any result that economic science/decision ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-09-01T05:08:01.727143Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"If the war ends with one side winning, how will the market resolve? The rules do not specify",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-08T13:47:28.998127Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The work [on the potential Gaza ceasefire deal] is just beginning and it is very difficult work according to Qatar¡¯s Fo,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:11:43.417536Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"To everyone still holding No, sell now, this is your final warning. Fordow was the entire point of the operation. Twelve",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T22:35:33.237508Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Guys, I¡¯m taking bets on who will chicken out first (sell more than 50% of their YES shares). For example, Denizz vs. N",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T23:03:23.034053Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Israel¡¯s prime minister insisted ¡°Gaza will no longer be a threat¡± as Israel advances plans to concentrate Palestinia,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-19T20:44:26.244148Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Please buy yes positions on the damascus invasion market if you think so :),False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-31T13:18:56.819437Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"During my 30 min nap, I saw a dream where i sold portion of my shares at 46 pricemark :)) im not jking",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T13:15:23.933254Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,See what happens¡­surely there will be a class action if it results in YES,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:55:06.800286Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Exactly, unfortunately i am travelling right now, so dont have my ledger, or i would have been YES for $10k.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:34:39.791355Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,But KnureKnume was super confident :( and told everyone they're stupid for holding No... why is he selling his guarantee,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T18:46:20.424811Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Both the US president and israel pm announced fordow is gone.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-04T00:01:51.318566Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Funzfiz going from $438k to negative pnl territory over 5 weeks will be the 3rd wildest thing I've seen on PM. The Ukrai,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-31T12:19:03.221789Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,I bet your Chipotle order is lame af,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-08-27T08:42:55.482095Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Once again, I will have to thank the yes buyers for all your donations.",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:43:41.538769Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if you double 10 bucks 10 times that's 10k,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T21:43:43.997351Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"you are assuming something needs to be labelled as ""official"" to matter to UMA voters. You need to look at this in its t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-29T18:58:21.894401Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"You won't satisfy Peter Singer anyway. I added ""actually"" for a reason",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-04T19:33:30.798857Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,It may take days for them to accept even the initial ceasefire conditions.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-07T11:34:01.964152Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,He wanted this for 6months new. Pray its gonna happen the next 8 days,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T13:45:02.383542Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I am sure they would be happy to sell their tokens if it was 100 bucks each,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T05:37:36.218074Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Chatgpt coping for $35 gotta love polymarket. Even as a yes holder I know this is regarded.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T07:38:54.764222Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Exactly 33K more revealed tokens could have ended the vote - but that never happened. Maybe someone didn¡¯t want it to r,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-17T18:44:58.231283Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Logically the Chances of winning NO in July 22 and then YES august are drastically low. Hyper gambling it doesnt even ma,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-18T05:59:27.294329Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Yes at 48c is just an illusion being fabricated by the same people who have been losing this same bet for months. Wait 2,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T16:16:04.837869Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Erasmus brother, if you want easy money, invest in NO",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:48:52.026961Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No, we need an official IAEA report, not Grossi's personal opinion, which is influenced by Trump.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-30T06:46:56.280204Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Firstly, it¡¯s not public. There are detailed legal terms that the stakeholders involved are only privy to at the moment",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:55:37.278393Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I lowk want it to go to No, not for the 150 bucks but to see everyone cry cuz they blindly follow aenews",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T19:17:35.082735Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"holy shit @NoahLange just made a great point: ""He in no way said the facility was destroyed; he said the centrifuges wer",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-23T09:59:28.241283Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,CanIhave1dollar your last chances to sell your remaining yes at these prices,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T12:56:13.191221Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Resolution source is the iranian not the israeli,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-20T11:25:26.178655Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Good luck yes holders at this point nothing else can save your asses,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:26:57.138583Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,last drop so i can sell my 1 dollar no and put in some other market to make it 1000,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:44:17.666095Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,your position size is 29 dollars,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:25:20.353561Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Fordow was the mission. Not a theory, a fact. Twelve direct hits. No images. No access. Total blackout. That only happen",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-22T19:51:37.222188Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Yeah, unfortunately i snooped it on 44c still adequate in my book",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T06:50:15.208435Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,-130$ pnl no suprise you dumb fck believe the same lie from the same sources the 100th time,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:38:31.608807Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i went there, ONE centrifuges is still working so its a very solid NO. Thank you for your attention to to this matter.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-29T12:55:05.916533Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"yeah, most likely the announcement is that the hostages will be released, and that can only happen if there is also a ce",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T19:34:15.872397Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"Sure direct information from leading negotiators in Qatar, Hamas, and even Israeli sources saying the same is badly info",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-24T17:30:27.795609Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,get a load of this guy cheering for war and death,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:36:49.783101Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This market is such a scam. I bought in yesterday at around 80 thinking the Americans did the job. But apparently they j,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T22:21:58.573953Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I agree, only bought $50 worth of shares for fun to try it out, but it¡¯s totally pointless if markets are manipulated h",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-25T04:44:16.035871Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Too bad he/(ScamAltman for those who remember the Ukraine Minerals deal before April market) also lost $300k in these ce,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-24T13:34:46.976348Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,yeah gg at least I came back to the winning side in the end,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-04T17:12:18.111239Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Smotrich gave his go. Hes not threathing Netanyahu,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T21:49:21.325039Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"from 2.2bn$ b2 bombers, best bombs 51 in the world 12 used, each through 6 holes each costs 20mn$ plus, so 240mn$ of exp",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-07T14:58:29.444663Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,A Palestinian official familiar with the Israel-Hamas talks has told the BBC the morning session in Sharm el-Sheikh has ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T21:44:38.896252Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Are the top holder managed by bots ?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T08:54:38.410853Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I'm a YEStard, I bought at 0.82",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-09T00:56:31.498066Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,In a room in Sharm: there was an official signing ceremony,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T18:10:43.051335Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Honestly, I¡¯m unsure about what happened to the others or why some people here accept the scam so casually. No reputabl",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-13T17:31:52.293446Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"""Completing the operation means defeating Hamas. It means destroying Hamas,"" Netanyahu said. ""There will be no situation",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T17:21:07.549762Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey bro, I get it, but I¡¯m not just trying to get my money back. I want to expose how Polymarket claims to be fair, whi",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T01:49:43.322555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro you get triggered so easily. lmao its gonna be fun watching you crash out when you loose this market.you have -2k pl,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T02:33:21.859857Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Considering the events since the strike occurred, here is what I expect to happen tomorrow: The US government will hold ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-26T15:58:50.433794Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,¡°We consider the PA President¡¯s assertion that Hamas will have no role in governance to be a violation of the authenti,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T18:01:32.210086Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,What is the first thing you're going to do when you loose? I'm sure you could get an hour with a goat with your remainin,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-22T19:13:03.448131Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Any links for the ongoing developments? How do we know where witkoff is?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T19:48:58.263967Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,I was so worried. I bet some of my rent money for this cause of the government shutdown,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T19:54:48.416977Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,I sold july 15 and 31 shares when they were going up ??,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-06-27T20:46:26.899681Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,This has to happen. Netanyahu must have quite before going to elections,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T17:21:07.549762Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey bro, I get it, but I¡¯m not just trying to get my money back. I want to expose how Polymarket claims to be fair, whi",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T18:54:29.086783Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The fact that a market can get resolved yes with zero evidence just because its biggest holders (holding yes) decide to ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T13:54:35.750607Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,This already a pretty much guaranteed NO. USA lies holding yes price up. Time is running up¡­,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-06T20:14:12.252105Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,literally sold his no shares before it dumped on oct 10. what a timing,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-11T15:20:35.821684Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The market is not about the permanent ceasefire,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-30T15:33:10.978661Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"""IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir this morning, met with troops of the Nahal Brigade¡¯s reconnaissance unit in Gaz",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T16:25:21.075609Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I bought the ""yes"" option for 44 cents and sold it for 83 cents, then bought the ""no"" option for 26 cents to sell it whe",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-24T09:26:10.180207Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Bro you keep falling for the show, of course Hamas wants a deal because it will get to the end of war, Israel will keep ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-17T12:52:32.547436Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"So basically, no agreement on troop withdrawal, guaranteed ceasefire, aid flow and prisoner release.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-05T13:25:36.386944Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,or if there is no Hamas. Then no ceasefire deal,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T08:00:36.027142Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I just won this bet, held 8 No, but my History says I lost. When I claimed my win neither my portfolio nor my cash chang",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-19T12:13:07.006827Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,i can¡¯t see serious ppl here. maybe you help me to find them?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-30T13:39:45.175376Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,so you are a boy?but you profile picture is so cute,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-20T12:22:55.230502Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Israel couple days ago: We will further intensify operations in Gaza If there is no deal. Ceasefire talks stalled and no,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-20T09:22:43.590924Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Funfzig is really emotional for that 40c price, trying his best to keep it lmao. Can¡¯t wait for the first mini whales t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-09T03:06:37.651509Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Ur talking with 50 shares to a guy that prob could buy ur family calm down,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:27.649472Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Interesting find: Yes spiked from $0.70 to $0.90 four hours ago, right after a whale with 5.5M tokens voted Yes on UMA. ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T19:45:36.033354Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,omg i sold at 68 wanted to rebuy cheaper and it went to 75 in 2hr?XD,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T00:44:04.412657Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,RIP 72 goats. I bet those goats were also raped by the Arabs,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-21T15:08:00.458581Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Whenever I see something in my dream, the exact opposite happens 100% of the time. Today I dreamed that Hamas and Israel",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0d122537518983fd9fce8de6cba320a1157ab6f8 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +563308,2025-07-24T13:48:57.094009Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,and with that said we take some profit and extend our long No to august 15th thank you gentlemen its been a pleasure so ,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T11:34:31.742003Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Absolutely zero reason to be holding yes right now of youre in profit. The risk reward is horrible. The truth will be re,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T15:47:07.991873Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why do you think I hold 'no' lol,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-02T08:49:03.866906Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Amit Segal - Ministers were just updated: ¡°Hamas continues to cling to its refusal to agree to a framework for returnin,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T05:37:17.247856Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"it will be a ""too early"" to decide, but at the moment it is equivalent to no general consensus and lack of definitive of",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T17:07:19.813383Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Lmao I love that I triggered you, why are you commenting so emotionally it¡¯s not deep. And don¡¯t speak to me about mon",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:33:57.735426Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It¡¯s free money that¡¯s why I bought. A payload of bunker busters, precisely aimed, can indeed destroy it. Easy.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-23T11:56:44.837794Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Keep holding yes-tards, your money will be of better use in my pocket",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-29T04:16:37.668513Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"If Witkoff's new deal is similar to his old one, Hamas will just reject again. If it's similar to what Hamas claims to h",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T19:26:34.460087Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Definetly, thats a 2x on 800 bucks, fuck the ayatollah",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-21T19:43:15.316568Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"After this resolves to YES, I will be donating $20 to the war victims",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-24T06:57:45.334315Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"While StifflersMom sold at a lose, i wouldn't laugh, it's experienced player with very very good pnl, and he knows when ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T07:11:08.527914Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The way I see it and why I bought was that yes requires Iran or the IAEA.to officially declare it destroyed. Iran won't,",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-11T07:24:43.328159Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"a shit ton of insiders on the middle eastern market, you never know",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-22T18:50:06.219957Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,We hope to reach a ceasefire can you read,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-18T21:27:23.446427Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"Ye bro from what i understand there is this uma coin that decides what outcome happens, it's basically a stake to decide",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-20T09:11:50.155695Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Netanyahu¡¯s gamble, the Haredi bluff For Netanyahu, the Haredi threat is serious, but it¡¯s not the only one. Should he",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:38:50.520643Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Bro u got 10 bucks in this market, why are you even playing haha",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-31T07:01:16.600146Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,i just want to ask why you consider the date of 15 of August ?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T01:04:30.199348Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Liquidifier bought 5,000 Yes at 98.4 ($4,920) and that guy has 50Millions of volume traded. WHY? WTF is going on?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T13:15:23.933254Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,See what happens¡­surely there will be a class action if it results in YES,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:27.649472Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Interesting find: Yes spiked from $0.70 to $0.90 four hours ago, right after a whale with 5.5M tokens voted Yes on UMA. ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-01T15:21:07.860643Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Can anyone fill my order at 74c lol, damn im panic selling",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-03T00:05:10.531947Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"This time quite different, direct involve of Trump",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:21:08.716493Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"tsybka sold 31,088 Yes at 98.4c ($30,595) GG",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T22:22:12.421226Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Negotiation round 1 done its not over,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T21:44:46.037688Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"BREAKING: A Gaza deal could be reached as soon as tonight. Source: Barak Ravid, Axios",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T01:05:52.954576Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,nigga you are down $250 LOL who are you to talk,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T14:18:03.936247Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,pack it up the delusion is gonna end tmr when youll redeem ur 160k shares for 0 dollars average,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T11:01:52.169359Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why would Israel confirm they were destroyed? if they confirm it means Iran is no longer a threat which means they would,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T21:52:03.792034Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,sad it is unlikely to transfer into actual peace but whatever,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-19T20:44:26.244148Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Please buy yes positions on the damascus invasion market if you think so :),False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-09-01T05:08:01.727143Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"If the war ends with one side winning, how will the market resolve? The rules do not specify",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:11:43.417536Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"To everyone still holding No, sell now, this is your final warning. Fordow was the entire point of the operation. Twelve",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-08T13:47:28.998127Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The work [on the potential Gaza ceasefire deal] is just beginning and it is very difficult work according to Qatar¡¯s Fo,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T13:15:23.933254Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,See what happens¡­surely there will be a class action if it results in YES,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T22:55:32.065856Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"So guys, basically there are some guys like @Hull and @Tomdnc who are against any result that economic science/decision ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-31T13:18:56.819437Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"During my 30 min nap, I saw a dream where i sold portion of my shares at 46 pricemark :)) im not jking",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T23:03:23.034053Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Israel¡¯s prime minister insisted ¡°Gaza will no longer be a threat¡± as Israel advances plans to concentrate Palestinia,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-31T12:19:03.221789Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,I bet your Chipotle order is lame af,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T18:46:20.424811Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Both the US president and israel pm announced fordow is gone.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:34:39.791355Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,But KnureKnume was super confident :( and told everyone they're stupid for holding No... why is he selling his guarantee,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-04T00:01:51.318566Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Funzfiz going from $438k to negative pnl territory over 5 weeks will be the 3rd wildest thing I've seen on PM. The Ukrai,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-07T11:34:01.964152Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,He wanted this for 6months new. Pray its gonna happen the next 8 days,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T22:35:33.237508Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Guys, I¡¯m taking bets on who will chicken out first (sell more than 50% of their YES shares). For example, Denizz vs. N",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-08-27T08:42:55.482095Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Once again, I will have to thank the yes buyers for all your donations.",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:55:06.800286Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Exactly, unfortunately i am travelling right now, so dont have my ledger, or i would have been YES for $10k.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-04T19:33:30.798857Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,It may take days for them to accept even the initial ceasefire conditions.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:43:41.538769Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if you double 10 bucks 10 times that's 10k,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T05:37:36.218074Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Chatgpt coping for $35 gotta love polymarket. Even as a yes holder I know this is regarded.,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T13:45:02.383542Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I am sure they would be happy to sell their tokens if it was 100 bucks each,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-29T18:58:21.894401Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"You won't satisfy Peter Singer anyway. I added ""actually"" for a reason",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T21:43:43.997351Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"you are assuming something needs to be labelled as ""official"" to matter to UMA voters. You need to look at this in its t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-17T18:44:58.231283Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Logically the Chances of winning NO in July 22 and then YES august are drastically low. Hyper gambling it doesnt even ma,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-18T05:59:27.294329Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Yes at 48c is just an illusion being fabricated by the same people who have been losing this same bet for months. Wait 2,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T16:16:04.837869Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Erasmus brother, if you want easy money, invest in NO",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T07:38:54.764222Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Exactly 33K more revealed tokens could have ended the vote - but that never happened. Maybe someone didn¡¯t want it to r,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:48:52.026961Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No, we need an official IAEA report, not Grossi's personal opinion, which is influenced by Trump.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:55:37.278393Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I lowk want it to go to No, not for the 150 bucks but to see everyone cry cuz they blindly follow aenews",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-30T06:46:56.280204Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Firstly, it¡¯s not public. There are detailed legal terms that the stakeholders involved are only privy to at the moment",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T19:17:35.082735Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"holy shit @NoahLange just made a great point: ""He in no way said the facility was destroyed; he said the centrifuges wer",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-29T12:55:05.916533Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"yeah, most likely the announcement is that the hostages will be released, and that can only happen if there is also a ce",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:26:57.138583Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,last drop so i can sell my 1 dollar no and put in some other market to make it 1000,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T12:56:13.191221Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Resolution source is the iranian not the israeli,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-20T11:25:26.178655Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Good luck yes holders at this point nothing else can save your asses,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-23T09:59:28.241283Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,CanIhave1dollar your last chances to sell your remaining yes at these prices,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:44:17.666095Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,your position size is 29 dollars,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:38:31.608807Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i went there, ONE centrifuges is still working so its a very solid NO. Thank you for your attention to to this matter.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:25:20.353561Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Fordow was the mission. Not a theory, a fact. Twelve direct hits. No images. No access. Total blackout. That only happen",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-24T17:30:27.795609Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,get a load of this guy cheering for war and death,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T19:34:15.872397Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"Sure direct information from leading negotiators in Qatar, Hamas, and even Israeli sources saying the same is badly info",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-22T19:51:37.222188Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Yeah, unfortunately i snooped it on 44c still adequate in my book",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T06:50:15.208435Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,-130$ pnl no suprise you dumb fck believe the same lie from the same sources the 100th time,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:36:49.783101Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This market is such a scam. I bought in yesterday at around 80 thinking the Americans did the job. But apparently they j,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-04T17:12:18.111239Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Smotrich gave his go. Hes not threathing Netanyahu,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-24T13:34:46.976348Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,yeah gg at least I came back to the winning side in the end,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T22:21:58.573953Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I agree, only bought $50 worth of shares for fun to try it out, but it¡¯s totally pointless if markets are manipulated h",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-25T04:44:16.035871Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Too bad he/(ScamAltman for those who remember the Ukraine Minerals deal before April market) also lost $300k in these ce,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-09T00:56:31.498066Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,In a room in Sharm: there was an official signing ceremony,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T21:49:21.325039Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"from 2.2bn$ b2 bombers, best bombs 51 in the world 12 used, each through 6 holes each costs 20mn$ plus, so 240mn$ of exp",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T08:54:38.410853Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I'm a YEStard, I bought at 0.82",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-07T14:58:29.444663Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,A Palestinian official familiar with the Israel-Hamas talks has told the BBC the morning session in Sharm el-Sheikh has ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T18:10:43.051335Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Honestly, I¡¯m unsure about what happened to the others or why some people here accept the scam so casually. No reputabl",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T01:49:43.322555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro you get triggered so easily. lmao its gonna be fun watching you crash out when you loose this market.you have -2k pl,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-13T17:31:52.293446Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"""Completing the operation means defeating Hamas. It means destroying Hamas,"" Netanyahu said. ""There will be no situation",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-06T20:14:12.252105Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,literally sold his no shares before it dumped on oct 10. what a timing,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T02:33:21.859857Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Considering the events since the strike occurred, here is what I expect to happen tomorrow: The US government will hold ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-26T15:58:50.433794Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,¡°We consider the PA President¡¯s assertion that Hamas will have no role in governance to be a violation of the authenti,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T17:21:07.549762Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey bro, I get it, but I¡¯m not just trying to get my money back. I want to expose how Polymarket claims to be fair, whi",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T21:44:38.896252Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Are the top holder managed by bots ?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-22T19:13:03.448131Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Any links for the ongoing developments? How do we know where witkoff is?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T19:48:58.263967Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,I was so worried. I bet some of my rent money for this cause of the government shutdown,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T19:54:48.416977Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,I sold july 15 and 31 shares when they were going up ??,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T18:01:32.210086Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,What is the first thing you're going to do when you loose? I'm sure you could get an hour with a goat with your remainin,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T17:21:07.549762Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey bro, I get it, but I¡¯m not just trying to get my money back. I want to expose how Polymarket claims to be fair, whi",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-06-27T20:46:26.899681Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,This has to happen. Netanyahu must have quite before going to elections,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T18:54:29.086783Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The fact that a market can get resolved yes with zero evidence just because its biggest holders (holding yes) decide to ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-21T15:08:00.458581Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Whenever I see something in my dream, the exact opposite happens 100% of the time. Today I dreamed that Hamas and Israel",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T13:54:35.750607Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,This already a pretty much guaranteed NO. USA lies holding yes price up. Time is running up¡­,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T16:25:21.075609Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I bought the ""yes"" option for 44 cents and sold it for 83 cents, then bought the ""no"" option for 26 cents to sell it whe",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-11T15:20:35.821684Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The market is not about the permanent ceasefire,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-30T15:33:10.978661Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"""IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir this morning, met with troops of the Nahal Brigade¡¯s reconnaissance unit in Gaz",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-24T09:26:10.180207Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Bro you keep falling for the show, of course Hamas wants a deal because it will get to the end of war, Israel will keep ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-20T09:22:43.590924Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Funfzig is really emotional for that 40c price, trying his best to keep it lmao. Can¡¯t wait for the first mini whales t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-17T12:52:32.547436Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"So basically, no agreement on troop withdrawal, guaranteed ceasefire, aid flow and prisoner release.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-20T12:22:55.230502Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Israel couple days ago: We will further intensify operations in Gaza If there is no deal. Ceasefire talks stalled and no,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T08:00:36.027142Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I just won this bet, held 8 No, but my History says I lost. When I claimed my win neither my portfolio nor my cash chang",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-05T13:25:36.386944Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,or if there is no Hamas. Then no ceasefire deal,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-19T12:13:07.006827Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,i can¡¯t see serious ppl here. maybe you help me to find them?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:27.649472Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Interesting find: Yes spiked from $0.70 to $0.90 four hours ago, right after a whale with 5.5M tokens voted Yes on UMA. ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T00:44:04.412657Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,RIP 72 goats. I bet those goats were also raped by the Arabs,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T19:45:36.033354Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,omg i sold at 68 wanted to rebuy cheaper and it went to 75 in 2hr?XD,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-09T03:06:37.651509Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Ur talking with 50 shares to a guy that prob could buy ur family calm down,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-30T13:39:45.175376Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,so you are a boy?but you profile picture is so cute,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1fed6f5425d915bee67412b678f0e109386d66f9 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,250 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +551017,2025-07-04T19:33:30.798857Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,It may take days for them to accept even the initial ceasefire conditions.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",YES,NO,False,True,849.99,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T05:37:17.247856Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"it will be a ""too early"" to decide, but at the moment it is equivalent to no general consensus and lack of definitive of",NO,NO,True,True,544.1762,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-24T13:48:57.094009Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,and with that said we take some profit and extend our long No to august 15th thank you gentlemen its been a pleasure so ,NO,NO,True,True,1000.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T12:28:58.775976Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"To my understanding, anyone with 7 million uma tokens ($1,1 at market price) could decide the outcome of the voting",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,22.142,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T19:34:15.872397Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"Sure direct information from leading negotiators in Qatar, Hamas, and even Israeli sources saying the same is badly info",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-19T15:36:36.263115Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Fun fact: Denizz has a winrate of 25% in Israel Hamas ceasefire market with a total loss of currently -62000. Gonna be -,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T22:22:12.421226Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Negotiation round 1 done its not over,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-08-03T01:40:04.866708Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,400k profit. You could change my life right now with a 10 dollar donation.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T00:03:08.225081Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Also imagine being not a part of UMA mafia and still holding Yes for 1.5c profit?,NO,NO,True,True,2500.0002,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-29T14:21:44.745651Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Depends on where you live anon. You are working with partial informations,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T10:45:09.337951Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Times of Israel: ""Israeli team at hostage talks is high level, but does not include senior-most officials - report"" . No",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-04T18:34:18.266181Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"be fr,zionists wanting peace is an impossibility",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-18T16:17:02.035725Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,Cause you are a -150$ pnl better of course you have no clue what you are doing,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T13:15:23.933254Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,See what happens¡­surely there will be a class action if it results in YES,NO,NO,True,True,34.02,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-09T19:58:13.842829Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,its actually 6 in 8 hours maybe you got that mixed up cause of time zone,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-30T12:35:22.405678Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Polygon is currently experiencing a temporary outage, which may affect platform connectivity. Your Polymarket balances a",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:36:49.783101Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This market is such a scam. I bought in yesterday at around 80 thinking the Americans did the job. But apparently they j,YES,NO,False,True,58.61,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-07T14:58:29.444663Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,A Palestinian official familiar with the Israel-Hamas talks has told the BBC the morning session in Sharm el-Sheikh has ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:11:43.417536Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"To everyone still holding No, sell now, this is your final warning. Fordow was the entire point of the operation. Twelve",YES,YES,True,True,2391.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-06-13T00:38:15.784644Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Must be something to it, every market went down",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T16:58:35.610218Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It doesn't say ""centrifuges are render non-functional"" LOL you guys will lose $5k because you can't read. It's the facil",YES,YES,True,True,936.74,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T14:54:02.500796Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The walls are there because of the discussions in Discord and the fact that P2 goes AGAINST THE RULES OF THIS BET. This ,NO,NO,True,True,4670.0468,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T00:30:25.944428Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Idk, it¡¯s your choice, I bought 3 days ago)",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,100.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-09T03:06:37.651509Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Ur talking with 50 shares to a guy that prob could buy ur family calm down,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T22:35:33.237508Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Guys, I¡¯m taking bets on who will chicken out first (sell more than 50% of their YES shares). For example, Denizz vs. N",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1060.4386,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,NO,YES,False,True,101.6,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:33:57.735426Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It¡¯s free money that¡¯s why I bought. A payload of bunker busters, precisely aimed, can indeed destroy it. Easy.",YES,YES,True,True,599.65,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:44:17.666095Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,your position size is 29 dollars,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1675.6616,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T22:55:32.065856Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"So guys, basically there are some guys like @Hull and @Tomdnc who are against any result that economic science/decision ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19.5,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-04T10:43:36.660004Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,No because then I¡¯ll throw enough money at it to make the odds 80% yes and make UMA think everyone else will vote P2,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T09:15:59.711375Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Because holding for a couple extra hours to get $2000 is worth a few extra hours to me,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,59070.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-19T12:13:07.006827Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,i can¡¯t see serious ppl here. maybe you help me to find them?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-08-27T08:42:55.482095Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Once again, I will have to thank the yes buyers for all your donations.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:25:20.353561Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Fordow was the mission. Not a theory, a fact. Twelve direct hits. No images. No access. Total blackout. That only happen",YES,YES,True,True,2391.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T11:22:39.994222Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Why would you buy YES at this price, there is literally no upside?? You risk 2000 for 20 bucks haha",NO,NO,True,True,1016.68,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T16:37:41.435921Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Dang you're gonna lose $47k... Destroyed in this market has a specific definition of being rendered non-functional. No f,YES,YES,True,True,936.74,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-08T19:18:27.811714Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"No chance to stop the fire, easy money",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T21:44:46.037688Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"BREAKING: A Gaza deal could be reached as soon as tonight. Source: Barak Ravid, Axios",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-18T21:27:23.446427Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"Ye bro from what i understand there is this uma coin that decides what outcome happens, it's basically a stake to decide",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T21:02:00.098699Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if i was you i would put 20 bucks of my 50k profit onto the cheapest nos,NO,NO,True,True,22.142,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T02:04:39.036051Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Damn it, I was about to buy another $100 at 14x odds. Just give me ten more minutes, please let it come back again :))))",NO,YES,False,True,60.08,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T09:04:32.659283Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Take the $50k and run it short,NO,NO,True,True,4670.0468,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-06-27T20:46:26.899681Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,This has to happen. Netanyahu must have quite before going to elections,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T04:31:58.404932Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"They can never take these shares from you. Don't redeem, hold on for a class action in the future",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:43:41.538769Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if you double 10 bucks 10 times that's 10k,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,8.51,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-06-19T12:01:15.306805Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,I have found a value bet Will the US strike the Fordow nuclear facility before July For me it should be sixty NO instead,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T07:24:09.499527Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Look at the amount of yes holders how much each holds that's way higher than nos.whales are the only people holding yes ,NO,NO,True,True,8.99,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-21T15:08:00.458581Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Whenever I see something in my dream, the exact opposite happens 100% of the time. Today I dreamed that Hamas and Israel",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-23T09:59:28.241283Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,CanIhave1dollar your last chances to sell your remaining yes at these prices,NO,NO,True,True,1925.3461,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-22T19:13:03.448131Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Any links for the ongoing developments? How do we know where witkoff is?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-11T15:20:35.821684Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The market is not about the permanent ceasefire,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-10T22:13:08.014701Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,... so hamas would release 10 Hostages and do a 60 Day ceasefire with no guarantee that any of their demands is fulfille,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T22:35:02.678409Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Sounds nice, but you try to convince the people who invested milliom on dollars in yes to vote no. You think somebody wh",NO,NO,True,True,4983.7874,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-03T00:05:10.531947Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"This time quite different, direct involve of Trump",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T13:56:25.431222Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"gopfan2 sold 26,276 Yes at 99.6 ($26,171) umniybet1 sold 19,818 Yes at 99.6 ($19,739)",NO,NO,True,True,4670.0468,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T08:18:04.863588Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,So now you've become a radioactive cat and you need to be put down.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-07T11:34:01.964152Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,He wanted this for 6months new. Pray its gonna happen the next 8 days,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-31T12:19:03.221789Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,I bet your Chipotle order is lame af,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T21:49:21.325039Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"from 2.2bn$ b2 bombers, best bombs 51 in the world 12 used, each through 6 holes each costs 20mn$ plus, so 240mn$ of exp",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-07T11:23:02.780916Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Judging by your profits you have never taken much money from anyone.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-20T09:22:43.590924Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Funfzig is really emotional for that 40c price, trying his best to keep it lmao. Can¡¯t wait for the first mini whales t",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T22:21:58.573953Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I agree, only bought $50 worth of shares for fun to try it out, but it¡¯s totally pointless if markets are manipulated h",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,50.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:18:58.245861Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i have 1 dollar should i buy no?,NO,NO,True,True,0.0706,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T13:56:25.431222Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"gopfan2 sold 26,276 Yes at 99.6 ($26,171) umniybet1 sold 19,818 Yes at 99.6 ($19,739)",NO,NO,True,True,4670.0468,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-13T17:31:52.293446Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"""Completing the operation means defeating Hamas. It means destroying Hamas,"" Netanyahu said. ""There will be no situation",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T11:15:45.571733Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,N holder start to FUD Y holder,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T09:21:23.510241Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,$1600 for an insurance policy so you keep your $50k profit in either direction,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4670.0468,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-26T15:58:50.433794Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,¡°We consider the PA President¡¯s assertion that Hamas will have no role in governance to be a violation of the authenti,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T02:15:37.309325Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I thought that at least old-timers like CARa would read the rules... or is this just a manipulation tactic, like buying ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:34:04.679619Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro tried making $6 and got butt fucked at 80 cent LOL,NO,NO,True,True,157.87,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T05:44:26.455308Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Large N holder Arbguy is discretely selling off,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T11:34:31.742003Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Absolutely zero reason to be holding yes right now of youre in profit. The risk reward is horrible. The truth will be re,NO,NO,True,True,4670.0468,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:22:25.940144Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Yep I sold and bought back in lmao,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,301.5175,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-04T20:31:42.085237Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,@ annoyingamy 20k cheap shares for you to buy.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:38:31.608807Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i went there, ONE centrifuges is still working so its a very solid NO. Thank you for your attention to to this matter.",NO,NO,True,True,501.8502,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:57:42.101109Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Why did i sold my shares at 14c,YES,NO,False,True,35.0022,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T13:15:23.933254Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,See what happens¡­surely there will be a class action if it results in YES,NO,NO,True,True,34.02,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T15:47:07.991873Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why do you think I hold 'no' lol,NO,NO,True,True,6518.8437,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T17:53:17.670303Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,haha recovered my 1dollar back to other markets,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.0706,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T15:35:55.846878Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Exactly bro that's the shit that made me do this shit it prob will boost the yes prices man trump is a loud mouth this g,YES,YES,True,True,30.5148,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-08T22:35:33.237508Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Guys, I¡¯m taking bets on who will chicken out first (sell more than 50% of their YES shares). For example, Denizz vs. N",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,101.6,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-09T00:56:31.498066Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,In a room in Sharm: there was an official signing ceremony,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-24T13:34:46.976348Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,yeah gg at least I came back to the winning side in the end,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-03T23:29:04.417867Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,No buyers are you retarded? When trump says ceasefire it means ceasefire. Did you not learn your lesson with Iran Israel,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T17:21:07.549762Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey bro, I get it, but I¡¯m not just trying to get my money back. I want to expose how Polymarket claims to be fair, whi",NO,YES,False,True,29717.2706,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-17T23:42:46.837313Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"Immediately ceasefire, on next Tuesday, it's a magical market, why it knows it's July 22",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T03:20:09.644931Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"looking at the order book about 76400 no for $14k, (thats just under the 1 cent stuff) ;)",NO,NO,True,True,194.65,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T23:17:55.961207Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Happy satoshi made the comeback,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-19T20:44:26.244148Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Please buy yes positions on the damascus invasion market if you think so :),NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:14:37.525588Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if yes doesnt go to 75 in 2 mins i will go all in on no with my 2.79 dollars,YES,NO,False,True,4.1448,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T18:01:32.210086Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,What is the first thing you're going to do when you loose? I'm sure you could get an hour with a goat with your remainin,YES,NO,False,True,196.7524,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-21T19:30:48.978447Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"if you're convinced No goes to $1, you shouldn't care about Avg",NO,NO,True,True,79.9,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:07:36.038516Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If you are so right, with your 300 dollars, why is nobody else agreeing with you? I guess the whole world is in a conspi",YES,NO,False,True,2165.81,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-24T16:42:33.184727Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"""hOw ThIs GuY HaS A PoSitivE Pnl?"" - Mistky to me 6 days ago when I bought 3k before AUG 15 NO shares )))",NO,NO,True,True,99.4445,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-31T12:49:32.815076Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,The lion doesn't bother with index funds.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T01:49:43.322555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro you get triggered so easily. lmao its gonna be fun watching you crash out when you loose this market.you have -2k pl,YES,NO,False,True,268.984,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T07:36:42.919055Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,ill be honest with you guys because you deserve it. ive just been tipped off by a friend. i dont feel comfortable holdin,NO,NO,True,True,524.377,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-30T15:33:10.978661Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"""IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir this morning, met with troops of the Nahal Brigade¡¯s reconnaissance unit in Gaz",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T20:26:27.661202Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Top Yes hodlers who are not part of UMA cabal are either that recless or stupid if they think that UMA can't end up this,NO,NO,True,True,2500.0002,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T04:52:23.186653Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"I bought No yesterday, with all my money, do you realize there is more than 1 market for same chat?",NO,NO,True,True,440.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T19:26:34.460087Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Definetly, thats a 2x on 800 bucks, fuck the ayatollah",NO,YES,False,True,2.962,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-02T08:49:03.866906Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Amit Segal - Ministers were just updated: ¡°Hamas continues to cling to its refusal to agree to a framework for returnin,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-16T05:09:13.903842Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,guess trump is gonna be big chillin in the middle east,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T14:53:25.105128Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Okay mister I bought at ""76c"" and now I'm down",NO,NO,True,True,2290.9833,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-24T13:48:57.094009Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,and with that said we take some profit and extend our long No to august 15th thank you gentlemen its been a pleasure so ,NO,NO,True,True,6373.6221,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T13:45:02.383542Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I am sure they would be happy to sell their tokens if it was 100 bucks each,NO,NO,True,True,22.142,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-17T06:49:28.378617Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"Hamas approves of Israel¡¯s withdrawal plan, Qatar and Egypt are putting major pressure on them to get a deal",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T01:05:52.954576Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,nigga you are down $250 LOL who are you to talk,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,157.87,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-22T19:51:37.222188Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Yeah, unfortunately i snooped it on 44c still adequate in my book",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T02:33:21.859857Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Considering the events since the strike occurred, here is what I expect to happen tomorrow: The US government will hold ",YES,NO,False,True,64.817,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T03:41:24.741697Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"On the plus side, I don't think this was setting 1 week as a minimum. He's saying it's not reasonable to expect an annou",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-24T06:57:45.334315Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"While StifflersMom sold at a lose, i wouldn't laugh, it's experienced player with very very good pnl, and he knows when ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-19T14:22:31.419441Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Idek what that means but ok shit just dropped by 6 cents I think lol,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-18T05:59:27.294329Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Yes at 48c is just an illusion being fabricated by the same people who have been losing this same bet for months. Wait 2,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",YES,NO,False,True,132.5711,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T00:34:01.305786Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Nah I bought end of August and end of year so no worries,YES,NO,False,True,453.1314,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T17:07:19.813383Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Lmao I love that I triggered you, why are you commenting so emotionally it¡¯s not deep. And don¡¯t speak to me about mon",NO,NO,True,True,2290.9833,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T10:51:53.445022Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Man I sold at 72 thinking it will go down -_-,NO,NO,True,True,14.82,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T18:54:29.086783Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The fact that a market can get resolved yes with zero evidence just because its biggest holders (holding yes) decide to ,NO,NO,True,True,64.9668,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T17:21:07.549762Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey bro, I get it, but I¡¯m not just trying to get my money back. I want to expose how Polymarket claims to be fair, whi",NO,YES,False,True,29717.2706,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T03:40:00.649232Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i guess you don't have a penis, figures",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-01T15:21:07.860643Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Can anyone fill my order at 74c lol, damn im panic selling",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T21:24:31.733765Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I'm content to lose my money on this, personally i wouldn't bet more than like 50 bucks on either side of this lol. even",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19.49,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:26:57.138583Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,last drop so i can sell my 1 dollar no and put in some other market to make it 1000,NO,NO,True,True,1.1206,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-17T11:21:27.661222Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,So what? This is what I think and know. I simply write in Hebrew and he translates it for me best.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-09-01T05:08:01.727143Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"If the war ends with one side winning, how will the market resolve? The rules do not specify",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:27.649472Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Interesting find: Yes spiked from $0.70 to $0.90 four hours ago, right after a whale with 5.5M tokens voted Yes on UMA. ",NO,NO,True,True,29626.0326,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T00:52:01.050281Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Keep holding yes-tards. I love watching yall lose money when you could be on the winning side of this bet,NO,NO,True,True,143.5505,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-24T16:42:33.184727Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"""hOw ThIs GuY HaS A PoSitivE Pnl?"" - Mistky to me 6 days ago when I bought 3k before AUG 15 NO shares )))",NO,NO,True,True,1224.39,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-20T11:25:26.178655Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Good luck yes holders at this point nothing else can save your asses,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:48:52.026961Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No, we need an official IAEA report, not Grossi's personal opinion, which is influenced by Trump.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:55:06.800286Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Exactly, unfortunately i am travelling right now, so dont have my ledger, or i would have been YES for $10k.",YES,YES,True,True,255.41,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-20T13:11:36.294249Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The average yearly salary in Surinam is 2000-3000 dollars. PER YEAR.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:02:48.589495Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"You literally have hundreds of people telling you otherwise, but you, with 40 dollars, think are right",YES,NO,False,True,2165.81,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-30T06:46:56.280204Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Firstly, it¡¯s not public. There are detailed legal terms that the stakeholders involved are only privy to at the moment",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T15:13:46.648045Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,I thought no was overpriced so I sold and bought yes i now regret that shit ??,YES,NO,False,True,30.5148,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T01:02:42.593826Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Funfzig bought 6,742 Yes at 98.1 ($6,614)",NO,YES,False,True,613.029,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T09:07:23.548641Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"leaving that argument aside, the head of an organization saying something must count as official confirmation. He¡¯s no",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1252.088,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-17T12:52:32.547436Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"So basically, no agreement on troop withdrawal, guaranteed ceasefire, aid flow and prisoner release.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-24T09:26:10.180207Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Bro you keep falling for the show, of course Hamas wants a deal because it will get to the end of war, Israel will keep ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T18:46:20.424811Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Both the US president and israel pm announced fordow is gone.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-25T04:44:16.035871Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,Too bad he/(ScamAltman for those who remember the Ukraine Minerals deal before April market) also lost $300k in these ce,NO,NO,True,True,772.763,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T21:43:43.997351Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"you are assuming something needs to be labelled as ""official"" to matter to UMA voters. You need to look at this in its t",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T18:10:43.051335Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Honestly, I¡¯m unsure about what happened to the others or why some people here accept the scam so casually. No reputabl",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,29717.2706,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T08:48:09.801369Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,So yes is very not likely because they might never even admit it¡¯s destroyed,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-22T19:34:14.779927Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,I should feel bad for peoplr losing their money but they deserve it,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:34:39.791355Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,But KnureKnume was super confident :( and told everyone they're stupid for holding No... why is he selling his guarantee,NO,NO,True,True,3503.9934,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T18:08:31.075853Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"U.S. President Donald Trump said he believes there is ""a chance"" for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip ""this week or next we",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T18:10:43.051335Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Honestly, I¡¯m unsure about what happened to the others or why some people here accept the scam so casually. No reputabl",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,29717.2706,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T16:25:21.075609Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I bought the ""yes"" option for 44 cents and sold it for 83 cents, then bought the ""no"" option for 26 cents to sell it whe",NO,NO,True,True,19.3108,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-16T15:46:46.787009Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Israel now has minority government,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-24T06:50:52.018909Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Aki, do you have like 20 bucks to spare? I want to by more NO shares, I will give it back once it resolves.",NO,NO,True,True,246.38,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T01:04:30.199348Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Liquidifier bought 5,000 Yes at 98.4 ($4,920) and that guy has 50Millions of volume traded. WHY? WTF is going on?",NO,YES,False,True,19.5,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T12:56:13.191221Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Resolution source is the iranian not the israeli,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T05:37:36.218074Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Chatgpt coping for $35 gotta love polymarket. Even as a yes holder I know this is regarded.,YES,NO,False,True,124.9983,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-24T17:30:27.795609Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,get a load of this guy cheering for war and death,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-17T18:44:58.231283Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Logically the Chances of winning NO in July 22 and then YES august are drastically low. Hyper gambling it doesnt even ma,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T00:09:45.199696Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"LOL you have been here less than 24 hours, we have had the same guys like you yesterday, they are likely holding No and ",NO,NO,True,True,1472.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-23T11:56:44.837794Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Keep holding yes-tards, your money will be of better use in my pocket",NO,NO,True,True,288.2705,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-28T14:36:36.882513Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"October? Mabye. September? Nah bro aint no way its happening, bibi have to discuss with his coallition, which will break",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T08:00:36.027142Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I just won this bet, held 8 No, but my History says I lost. When I claimed my win neither my portfolio nor my cash chang",NO,NO,True,True,1.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T09:52:00.073037Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Prompt: This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) in Iran is destroyed by June 30, 20",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,183.02,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-03T21:07:43.190444Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"BTW, this was all planned. Ever since the reports about Netanyahu meeting Trump at the White House next week, the deal h",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T00:44:04.412657Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,RIP 72 goats. I bet those goats were also raped by the Arabs,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,NO,YES,False,True,890.7486,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T21:52:03.792034Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,sad it is unlikely to transfer into actual peace but whatever,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-06T20:14:12.252105Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,literally sold his no shares before it dumped on oct 10. what a timing,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T19:54:48.416977Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,I sold july 15 and 31 shares when they were going up ??,YES,NO,False,True,9.55,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T00:53:02.244023Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Fr I'm down like 4500 dollars and just taking my L in peace,NO,NO,True,True,4498.1728,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-31T13:18:56.819437Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"During my 30 min nap, I saw a dream where i sold portion of my shares at 46 pricemark :)) im not jking",NO,YES,False,True,18.0107,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-29T04:16:37.668513Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"If Witkoff's new deal is similar to his old one, Hamas will just reject again. If it's similar to what Hamas claims to h",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-07T20:00:28.561711Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,And Israel made it clear they would break the ceasefire and never enter phase 2 from the day they signed it. Why would H,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-03T20:41:46.850178Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Jsjr this bastard antisemite. Doesn't even bet on what he believe. Embarrassing,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-17T06:49:28.378617Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"Hamas approves of Israel¡¯s withdrawal plan, Qatar and Egypt are putting major pressure on them to get a deal",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T06:34:05.300091Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,How can you come to such a dumb conclusion is insane. Im posting just straight facts the past weeks which tend to be hig,NO,NO,True,True,5.0261,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T06:50:15.208435Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,-130$ pnl no suprise you dumb fck believe the same lie from the same sources the 100th time,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T22:16:53.369956Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Guys, reports and information coming from the party responsible for the attack cannot be considered ¡°credible reporting",NO,NO,True,True,1472.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T14:18:03.936247Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,pack it up the delusion is gonna end tmr when youll redeem ur 160k shares for 0 dollars average,YES,NO,False,True,81.874,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-18T03:51:44.962386Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Egypt, Qatar and the US are all putting major pressure on both parties to get a deal",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",YES,YES,True,True,386.048,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T19:45:36.033354Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,omg i sold at 68 wanted to rebuy cheaper and it went to 75 in 2hr?XD,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T09:32:19.591354Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"THE YES WHALES ARE LEAVING!!! TAKE YOUR PROFIT AND RUN NOW - DeepestState sold 110,527 Yes at 98.5 $108,923",NO,NO,True,True,4670.0468,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T00:52:11.973909Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This guy KnureKnume has been relentless for days and just sold. If you¡¯re still holding Yes what are you doing,NO,NO,True,True,33.0768,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:55:37.278393Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I lowk want it to go to No, not for the 150 bucks but to see everyone cry cuz they blindly follow aenews",NO,NO,True,True,54.61,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T19:08:00.040556Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If we get nothing from IAEA and Iran, this is probably resolving N, unless we get some very conclusive evidence.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T17:24:45.088416Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"1. Gambling debt on a credit card makes your credit score DROP 2. If you authorized the payment and do a chargeback, th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T19:37:41.276446Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"also, the whales holding YES here are not major holders of UMA tokens. yes they have some influence due to their reputat",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,18565.4592,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-29T18:58:21.894401Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"You won't satisfy Peter Singer anyway. I added ""actually"" for a reason",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,13.11,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T18:29:46.707163Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,When I get your money I'll donate $50 to PETA because a lot of goats are going to be se**x**ly abused if you loose.,YES,NO,False,True,206.4524,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-22T00:52:01.050281Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,Keep holding yes-tards. I love watching yall lose money when you could be on the winning side of this bet,NO,NO,True,True,8.2,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-31T17:13:52.122808Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"where is my n with mr Z on avatar? I asked you not to waste words to convince yestards, now I miss you",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-11T07:24:43.328159Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"a shit ton of insiders on the middle eastern market, you never know",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T15:00:45.685891Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"it can go both ways but the worse is already behind yes holders, can only get better from here tbh and there's still a w",YES,NO,False,True,3774.13,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T11:01:52.169359Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why would Israel confirm they were destroyed? if they confirm it means Iran is no longer a threat which means they would,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:34:04.679619Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro tried making $6 and got butt fucked at 80 cent LOL,NO,NO,True,True,157.87,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-15T07:50:38.605166Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,No ceasefire this month. Netanyahu expressed clearly he will further attack Gaza. Trumps middle east tour is over after ,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-31T07:01:16.600146Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,i just want to ask why you consider the date of 15 of August ?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T13:44:49.353918Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,After looking at this I used my brain and bought NO,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T06:19:49.112191Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"IDF orders new evacuation in Gaza: ""We are expanding activity to an area we have not been to before",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-08-04T00:01:51.318566Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,Funzfiz going from $438k to negative pnl territory over 5 weeks will be the 3rd wildest thing I've seen on PM. The Ukrai,NO,NO,True,True,802.7744,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-21T19:43:15.316568Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"After this resolves to YES, I will be donating $20 to the war victims",NO,YES,False,True,18.0107,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T07:36:38.307818Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,There is much more money if aanews artifically inflate the price of yes to get all that exit liquidity for when they sel,NO,NO,True,True,289.06,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T16:22:14.821071Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Be ready and hope something is gonna happen, while nothing indicates its gonna happen, cause hope is the only way we can",NO,NO,True,True,1925.3461,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T16:22:14.821071Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"Be ready and hope something is gonna happen, while nothing indicates its gonna happen, cause hope is the only way we can",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T19:48:58.263967Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,I was so worried. I bet some of my rent money for this cause of the government shutdown,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-03T19:48:21.328543Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,bro he is a swing trader let him do his thing,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-24T11:05:28.082662Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Maybe they will meet after this meeting.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-19T21:06:30.458067Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"History doesn¡¯t repeat itself, but it often rhymes",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-23T14:22:33.992837Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Egyptian channel Al-Rad reported from sources that Hamas will submit its ""final response"" today to the proposal for a ce",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T18:49:21.153763Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,uma will not be allowed to scam this one.. no's argument is much better,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-29T12:55:05.916533Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"yeah, most likely the announcement is that the hostages will be released, and that can only happen if there is also a ce",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",NO,NO,True,True,370.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T13:54:35.750607Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,This already a pretty much guaranteed NO. USA lies holding yes price up. Time is running up¡­,NO,NO,True,True,6020.0736,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T19:17:35.082735Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"holy shit @NoahLange just made a great point: ""He in no way said the facility was destroyed; he said the centrifuges wer",NO,NO,True,True,18565.4592,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T08:54:38.410853Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I'm a YEStard, I bought at 0.82",YES,YES,True,True,28.87,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-08T16:16:04.837869Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Erasmus brother, if you want easy money, invest in NO",NO,NO,True,True,351.747,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-09T20:46:23.415101Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Denizz doesn¡¯t go this heavy if he isn¡¯t sure.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-22T18:50:06.219957Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,We hope to reach a ceasefire can you read,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-31T15:04:17.155293Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,I bet there's at least 1 if not more poison pills in that response as far as Israel's concerned.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T23:03:23.034053Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Israel¡¯s prime minister insisted ¡°Gaza will no longer be a threat¡± as Israel advances plans to concentrate Palestinia,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:01:27.761549Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Yes holders still have time to save real money. Time is running out,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-30T13:39:45.175376Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,so you are a boy?but you profile picture is so cute,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T13:23:02.722476Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,daddy i love money im balls deep in no,NO,NO,True,True,168.27,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-20T09:11:50.155695Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Netanyahu¡¯s gamble, the Haredi bluff For Netanyahu, the Haredi threat is serious, but it¡¯s not the only one. Should he",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-26T23:10:48.514136Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"It¡¯s not just gonna happen, a lot of negotiating needs to happen: https://x.com/dropsitenews/status/1971710635789459638",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-25T04:44:16.035871Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Too bad he/(ScamAltman for those who remember the Ukraine Minerals deal before April market) also lost $300k in these ce,YES,NO,False,True,157.5657,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-04T00:01:51.318566Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Funzfiz going from $438k to negative pnl territory over 5 weeks will be the 3rd wildest thing I've seen on PM. The Ukrai,NO,NO,True,True,292.4972,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-04T17:12:18.111239Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Smotrich gave his go. Hes not threathing Netanyahu,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T21:44:38.896252Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Are the top holder managed by bots ?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-05T13:25:36.386944Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,or if there is no Hamas. Then no ceasefire deal,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:12:34.745236Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I bought a bit more No, i dont know what i am doing?",NO,NO,True,True,7.362,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:27.649472Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Interesting find: Yes spiked from $0.70 to $0.90 four hours ago, right after a whale with 5.5M tokens voted Yes on UMA. ",NO,NO,True,True,29626.0326,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T19:51:43.292271Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,That dude bought 600k just for 600 bucks profit weird shit,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,89.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T18:58:04.797758Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This is in no way IAEA confirmation.,NO,NO,True,True,2774.8281,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-05T10:07:04.808077Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,why did you pour all your yes? Rubbish,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:38:50.520643Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Bro u got 10 bucks in this market, why are you even playing haha",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1048.74,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:34:52.803785Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Holy shit how is yes not at 100% are you people retarded?,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-30T06:26:10.795086Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"There are September markets now, connect them with clock buttons plz.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T00:13:01.552142Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Look I'm only out $100 so who cares really but this market is a joke. Washington Post from just a few hours ago: ""The Un",NO,NO,True,True,100.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-15T20:09:52.721578Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Bear enters the room, bulls out",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T14:11:49.395473Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I bought and redeemed a win what are you talking about,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,25.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-20T12:22:55.230502Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Israel couple days ago: We will further intensify operations in Gaza If there is no deal. Ceasefire talks stalled and no,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:31:21.479391Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Beautiful, I sold my initial investment, now i have 1k shares for free ) thank you YES TARDS",NO,YES,False,True,22.5786,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T07:38:54.764222Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Exactly 33K more revealed tokens could have ended the vote - but that never happened. Maybe someone didn¡¯t want it to r,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,10596.3708,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:36:49.783101Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This market is such a scam. I bought in yesterday at around 80 thinking the Americans did the job. But apparently they j,YES,NO,False,True,58.61,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T07:11:08.527914Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The way I see it and why I bought was that yes requires Iran or the IAEA.to officially declare it destroyed. Iran won't,",NO,NO,True,True,56.11,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-08T13:47:28.998127Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The work [on the potential Gaza ceasefire deal] is just beginning and it is very difficult work according to Qatar¡¯s Fo,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:21:08.716493Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"tsybka sold 31,088 Yes at 98.4c ($30,595) GG",NO,NO,True,True,811.96,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..49577ed614f8af617b080855ba9ac61da9e6ac38 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +552650,2025-06-30T22:01:00.311341Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Grok : ""No"" at this moment, as the primary resolution source (official confirmation) has not been met and the deadline i",increase,hold,False,True,43.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T14:29:01.359307Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Definitely not lol you know that yourself.,flip,increase,False,True,9486.6298,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T08:05:33.982985Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I'm not sure the big holders will necessarily keep their position next time. They will choose to switch if they'll think,flip,decrease,False,True,544.1762,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-19T18:08:20.329945Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Bibi is doing to the Palestinians what that despot once did to the Jews¡­,hold,decrease,False,True,18.0107,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:30:03.266133Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Now we just need Iran to do some Propaganda like ""the damage they did was like a bug"" and Yes will crash to the Ground. ",decrease,hold,False,True,2249.3527,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T11:46:10.066162Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike."" guess 12 30K lb bombs don't qualify as a targeted s",decrease,decrease,True,True,378.0702,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T20:25:28.260652Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Also consider this: the IAEA have suffered some serious reputation damage over this whole Middle East craziness and thei,increase,increase,True,True,746.6295,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T20:33:12.389078Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"agreed, CIA is as credible as Trump.",hold,hold,True,True,112.19,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T04:53:31.747386Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"it won't default to no, thats not how UMA resolution works retardd",hold,hold,True,True,268.984,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:34.363178Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the vote is clearly heading to p4,flip,hold,False,True,9.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T06:28:51.638733Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Centrifuges are so viabration sensitive you cannot play loud music near them,increase,hold,False,True,20070.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T19:17:11.889037Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,we have 8 days to get the news it is destroyed because it is everyone here just talk nonsense,hold,decrease,False,True,45.1,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T00:48:29.191545Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,What percent of votes is needed for yes to win,hold,hold,True,True,178.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-12T18:56:49.598708Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Tho buy more, might get a chance to increase my position",increase,increase,True,True,1728.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:35:07.947513Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,omg he didnt want to use the world obliterate,hold,hold,True,True,1147.79,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T12:57:42.296847Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,it needs to be offical statement read the rules,hold,hold,True,True,90.521,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T03:56:19.496914Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Why a ¡°Yes¡± resolution remains very hard to achieve Key hurdle Current evidence Why it keeps the market from resolvin,increase,increase,True,True,469.8302,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-15T20:01:54.582127Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Times of Israel reported that Hamas negotiators in Cairo signaled a willingness to ease some of the demands that collaps,hold,increase,False,True,1136.1671,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T20:28:14.170223Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Can some of the YESTARDS fill my order at 29c? Please? Thank you,increase,hold,False,True,770.4412,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T18:35:59.133681Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Have you read the rules? Seems like you havn't. We don't need IRAN to confirm for a YES,increase,increase,True,True,206.4524,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T07:09:15.993462Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,It's not the platform you should blame but yourself for betting on market with such a semantic resolve mechanism. Those ,decrease,decrease,True,True,97.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-21T20:03:30.983166Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Netanyahu be like after Hamas just rejected the ceasefire: ""oh no... Anyways""",flip,increase,False,True,13641.3726,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T10:19:22.097607Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"What if the IAEA issues a report based on Israeli information / evidence, assessing that the site has been rendered non-",decrease,decrease,True,True,94.9,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T01:27:38.370614Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,yes share holders it is time to sell,increase,decrease,False,True,4973.109,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T20:29:24.433673Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,We will loose with honor if we have to. All no holders should hold to the end.,increase,increase,True,True,2.962,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:47:32.044265Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,No boys thought they were going to get a cheap win because of the logistics involved in confirming destruction. Iran ha,increase,increase,True,True,1675.6616,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T14:46:42.651737Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I just seen the video with Zelensky wearing a suit 4 days ago even if UMA resolved that market with NO : https://youtu.b,increase,hold,False,True,41.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T20:52:05.850866Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Also it already resolved yes once¡­. Why do you think that was? It¡¯s just being disputed. But the decider already resol,increase,hold,False,True,920.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:15:35.858752Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Netanyahu did suggest a ground operation at Fordow. This could be it,decrease,increase,False,True,8600.8608,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T19:44:48.164604Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The reveal phase of uma is automated in a random or order of voting manner, right? is not like a voter can reveal his vo",decrease,hold,False,True,5.362,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T04:26:18.254312Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,sooo you're saying we need evidence to confirm it? Dumbass?? I will crush you.,flip,increase,False,True,188.3783,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:40:18.094286Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"UMA turned off it on their web, but other sites like betmoar.fun have it operational",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T16:22:22.238366Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,I will if the price be lower then now,increase,decrease,False,True,154.8538,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-18T15:25:16.092794Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Props to the boys in the comments that worded it as if Israel proposed the ceasefire and then sold their yes on the pani,increase,hold,False,True,1550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-08-20T04:53:27.208943Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,@slight- you just blow in from stupid town or something?,hold,hold,True,True,432.152,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-21T17:35:54.036739Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Steve Bannon confirming with sources that the party is on this weekend,decrease,increase,False,True,357.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T16:04:13.606623Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,so they need more time to pressure Hamas into accepting Israels demands. Will this be done in 10 Days? I doubt it,decrease,increase,False,True,19765.1823,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:57:42.101109Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Why did i sold my shares at 14c,decrease,decrease,True,True,35.0022,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T05:09:13.903842Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,guess trump is gonna be big chillin in the middle east,hold,hold,True,True,42.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T22:20:26.265754Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Given all the circumstances, Polymarket will have to void this market",increase,decrease,False,True,40.6363,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T01:05:05.060307Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Car doesn¡¯t care about the resolution just wants to see .9 and dump on all of you yes holders,increase,increase,True,True,33.0768,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T14:25:12.947146Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"vote,make your illusions facts with Polymarket",hold,hold,True,True,13.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T17:46:47.068576Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,For those of you who joined us recently: both sides are trying to interpret the rules of this market to their liking. of,flip,decrease,False,True,199.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T18:30:22.085889Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,just gonna give away 45k usd to you?,flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:02:52.431385Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Primary resolution sources saying not destroyed. Why do you think they called PRIMARY sources? Also, even the US said th",decrease,decrease,True,True,1719.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T12:54:46.200359Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The rules say you need confirmation from Iran or IAEA, Israel already claimed before that they destroyed Fordo",hold,hold,True,True,3611.07,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T23:56:04.889486Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"no, if official IAEA channels had been used, this market would be resolved. but they were not used. we instead got an un",flip,hold,False,True,18565.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:52:19.657937Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I love how you are all pumping no to sell it,flip,decrease,False,True,22.8608,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-24T02:21:36.964405Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"We (Hamas) want: ""the full reopening of the Rafah crossing into Egypt to allow for family reunification and the return o",decrease,hold,False,True,772.763,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T06:32:46.851414Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Imagine Netanyahu making a ceasefire so close before his goals of displacing hundreds of thousands. Imagine Bibi making ,increase,increase,True,True,5.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T00:39:27.353792Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"we are literally in the same tg group, relax",decrease,hold,False,True,2132.54,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:40:01.837379Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"that is why i baught no after the article released and yes skyrocketet, then i learned it is up to UMA and whales to dec",hold,decrease,False,True,1147.79,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T23:01:47.705194Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,yeah i know we need moer whales to flip NO next vote we need info that shows what the chief said is beeing taken out of ,flip,decrease,False,True,33.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T19:29:58.261564Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"read how the thing is pharased again ""For the purposes of this market, ¡°destroyed¡± means that the underground enrichme",decrease,hold,False,True,22.21,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T16:15:13.613593Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Fellow anarcho-capitalists, i suggest you to join the market - https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-close-the-strait-o",decrease,hold,False,True,536.5786,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T19:51:39.713737Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Satellite imagery of Fordow from June 22 shows six probable entry-point craters on top of a ridge above the underground ,increase,decrease,False,True,231.5838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T22:30:02.899147Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Remember when you're dad beat you because you were retarded?,decrease,hold,False,True,268.984,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:02:16.620536Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I don¡¯t get how this platform is even popular. I wanted to give it a try, and the first market I saw was this. Honestly",increase,decrease,False,True,1737.5595,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T21:35:22.442227Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,arb guy you better hope you were right to switch,hold,decrease,False,True,1886.0723,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:15:04.670218Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Hmm. Iran claims the centrifuges are under a mountain. If thats true theres a 5% or less chance they were physically des,increase,increase,True,True,48.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:38:57.644749Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hi everyone, let's not get emotional about this. Honestly, I think it¡¯s likely to be resolved as ""Yes."" However, let's ",hold,flip,False,True,29626.0326,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T14:28:28.950758Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It¡¯s funny how some people, when they run out of arguments, resort to childish insults this behavior just shows despera",increase,increase,True,True,60.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T02:15:59.994055Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,ah yes lets listen to a retarded CNN host over the General of the IAEA,flip,hold,False,True,199.67,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T10:14:28.025148Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"If all the Hostages die, do you think he will survive?",flip,decrease,False,True,3903.9318,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:11:14.157081Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"the price doesn¡¯t factor in a revote, confused",flip,decrease,False,True,10330.034,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-08-04T00:01:51.318566Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,Funzfiz going from $438k to negative pnl territory over 5 weeks will be the 3rd wildest thing I've seen on PM. The Ukrai,decrease,hold,False,True,802.7744,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-19T21:16:40.870767Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,no because it has to be an agreement between Israel and Hamas obviously,flip,hold,False,True,2986.4212,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-05T08:26:14.616223Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Imagine thinking US would offer war guarantees to a terrorist group, lol",hold,increase,False,True,27245.87,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T13:00:39.300036Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Are you really this ignorant that you can¡¯t tell the difference between total destruction and mere damage?,increase,increase,True,True,60.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T01:20:18.494555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,reports stating 6x bunker busters used against the one target. Plus 30 other munitions.,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T06:37:40.690058Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,If the vents are required by the centrifuges facility to function¡­. Would that mean the centrifuge facility is rendered,increase,hold,False,True,20070.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T12:06:14.035791Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Even without the US involvement, the Israeli strike alone was enough to disable Fordow. By targeting entrances and venti",decrease,increase,False,True,22.7712,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-26T23:04:45.102453Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,It's like Bibi read the rules for this market,hold,increase,False,True,802.7744,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T20:19:25.760847Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,?????????? charles had the fucking leg man he had that shit,flip,hold,False,True,9.55,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:39:06.370389Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,at the end of the day the only credible source is Khamenei and he said everything is fine. this will resolve to no - htt,decrease,increase,False,True,1792.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:41:21.681131Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i dont know why you believe all the US haters. Nobody knows the damge inside fordow.,decrease,hold,False,True,1002.8986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T00:01:15.013031Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"were they? then is the ""we cannot say for sure"" part also part of IAEAs official confirmation of fordows destruction?",flip,decrease,False,True,18565.4592,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T11:36:25.763767Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I¡¯m no expert, but AI says the only way to be certain is through an inspection and for obvious reasons, that¡¯s impossi",decrease,decrease,True,True,4715.7552,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:23:34.535093Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"so much cope. The US got involved exclusively to destroy Fordow. If somehow they didnt on their first shot, they will go",decrease,increase,False,True,1124.1326,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T01:08:29.005928Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Its not about centrifuges, but the facilities housing",decrease,hold,False,True,1703.83,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:23:14.123524Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,vote is going p4 which means yes is going to lose this one,flip,hold,False,True,9.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T14:07:18.273233Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This is very simple. The facility is very likely destroyed by the definition set it the rules. No holders are trying to ,increase,increase,True,True,536.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T01:56:50.079001Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,damage to the centrifuges is irrelevant. this market is clearly about the nuclear facility itself. there is no new infor,flip,hold,False,True,18565.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T11:46:24.732474Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This market is nuts. We can all see before our very eyes the before and after satellite images with concrete dust settle,hold,increase,False,True,936.74,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-08-18T14:57:43.742419Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,If Israel agrees to the ceasefire that dosen't mean a end to the war. Israel and hamas will use this as a moment to regr,hold,increase,False,True,73.5637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:42:44.075058Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,To think that IAEA will make an official confirmation of the status of a safeguarded facility without site assessment is,increase,increase,True,True,6958.0144,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T00:06:59.540258Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,A 33k token holder not voting doesn't change anything,hold,hold,True,True,0.2656,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T08:11:37.530411Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I mean why do you think they proposed for a resolution before the deadline? Because it was a bit easier to prove the poi,flip,hold,False,True,544.1762,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-21T18:52:01.887582Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"Aki, how does life feel knowing you directly stole 60k from Denizz?",hold,hold,True,True,1224.39,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-08T21:46:02.351838Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I wonder what BIBI meant when he said ""broader peace"" Right?? right?? maybe relocation of Gazans + elimination of Hamas?",increase,decrease,False,True,101.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T11:10:07.453067Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I'm from Israel and deeply attuned to the local political landscape. From what I'm seeing on the ground, there's a real ",flip,increase,False,True,257.966,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:18:09.288096Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,but honestly this bet was always in a gray area,decrease,decrease,True,True,19.8742,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T18:36:57.763476Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,and how is USA or Israel gonna confirm it you dipshit LOL Iran will never confirm that hence the fact this is easy NO,decrease,increase,False,True,94.87,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:18:53.155948Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,you see they are btches now you got stuck at high yes for 20K votes,flip,decrease,False,True,33.858,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-04T21:07:23.600759Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,It's wild that this was literally an instant replay of May but people fell for it again.,flip,decrease,False,True,1901.9963,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T23:23:21.231785Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Centrifuges are very vibration-sensitive. They would not even need to get directly hit to become ""non-functional"". Now i",hold,increase,False,True,533.29,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-07T19:58:30.748439Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"At first, I was told that the ceasefire would happen on Friday then it was Monday, when Bibi and Trump were supposed to ",hold,decrease,False,True,1075.4512,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:26:24.510127Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I've invested 200 usd man not 60k. Not sure who's coping between the two of us. And at this price I've already made prof,flip,decrease,False,True,199.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T12:39:39.910393Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"slowly, but it will be 95% P2, they are chickening out on trying to dab on us with exact 16.1M votes like they tried to ",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T10:46:06.676086Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Depends if your going short or long,decrease,decrease,True,True,2768.65,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:02:33.349829Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"you can literally count them to the .01 point at https://vote.uma.xyz/ by their system there should be revote, but we al",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T18:27:19.640639Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""Tusi Gabbard = unreliable. Needs to be from Iran. Born and raised""",flip,decrease,False,True,199.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T20:29:24.378538Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro get out of that position ASAP like the other guy said if you are not in on it. they could make it P4 last second to ,decrease,decrease,True,True,1180.22,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T07:04:25.814269Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""The assessment also noted that underground sections of the sites, where Iran's most sensitive work is done, were largel",decrease,increase,False,True,122.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-03T19:53:25.568279Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Haha no ceasefire. No way Israel is accepting Hamas have a role in any country in the future. Ceasefire is basically use,decrease,increase,False,True,51.9544,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:32:30.147788Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,destroy that nuclear facility for me 5,decrease,hold,False,True,146.035,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T03:33:45.198887Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"1. the IAEA has very explicit procedures as to what counts as an ""official confirmation"", they are a regulated entity wi",flip,increase,False,True,18565.4592,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T20:17:45.720874Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I can tell you that the bombs were not targeting the above ground facility¡¯s lol,increase,decrease,False,True,20070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:58:13.648702Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Any yesers that have taken profit, are in the loss",decrease,decrease,True,True,5.362,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",decrease,decrease,True,True,386.048,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-24T11:49:59.234795Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,crazy market look at that volume,hold,hold,True,True,168.27,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T20:23:16.372487Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"why tf you still holding? if you are not part of UMA cohort, i would get the fuck off from your position ASAP, it can ve",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-07T12:01:27.318054Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Ben Gvir: We must not agree to this deal, but we are a minority in the coalition. I can't stop this move. Lol No holders",hold,increase,False,True,6568.9153,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-12T18:56:26.788679Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Man, I wouldn¡¯t call other retards when you bet on the same thing and lose for months",hold,decrease,False,True,38929.66,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T04:18:51.773792Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I would but I'm not in Discord so I will have the same problem as yourself,increase,hold,False,True,3396.7168,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:29:00.636337Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why else would they not reveal this?,decrease,decrease,True,True,5.0128,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T09:30:34.512483Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"#BREAKING IAEA Director Grossi told CBS News that Iran could resume uranium enrichment within months, despite recent U.S",increase,decrease,False,True,7.8,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T05:39:12.248736Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"looks like it, at the moment neither side appear to gather the 65%",flip,hold,False,True,544.1762,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T16:24:03.647576Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Won't hurt to let polymarket know if you'll be using them again, and why or why not. hello at polymarket dot com",hold,hold,True,True,14.86,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T11:33:45.100229Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The rules state we need confirmation that the centrifuges are rendered non functional. You¡¯re probably right that they ,flip,decrease,False,True,80.4,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T09:02:53.848467Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No kinda underappreciated here, i dunno why, it should be around 65% at very least, what's happening with this market, l",flip,increase,False,True,2500.0002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:10:00.173424Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If the centrifuges are non operational but the facility remains intact, does it resolve to yes or no?",decrease,decrease,True,True,233.3138,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:47:48.032315Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The Ukraine Mineral Market, that bitch Borntoolate threw in 5 million votes to steal all the money. Now they¡¯ve changed",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-19T17:05:00.053053Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,gg to whoever bought the 73cents shares,hold,hold,True,True,2986.4212,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T00:32:55.351705Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"pay attention to the market rules, this military theater was not to destroy Fordow YET",flip,hold,False,True,9020.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T05:55:36.756116Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Did you even read the article you shared?,flip,decrease,False,True,261.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T15:13:26.527361Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Don¡¯t worry. Even if some wealthy participants try to manipulate the vote on UMA, the rules written on the Polymarket m",hold,hold,True,True,150.08,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-20T21:14:49.489841Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Well Smotrich vows to resign if Netanyahu OKs Gaza truce,decrease,decrease,True,True,1435.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T05:24:32.842325Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The radioactive material they use is in the form of a gas and its heavier than air, so it won't escape the collasped und",increase,decrease,False,True,166.5095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T17:48:13.970763Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Did anyone send some hints to CoffeZilla about what manipulations are done here? I'm sure an investigation on polymarket,flip,hold,False,True,578.1363,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-20T13:22:31.065702Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"And, me and Denizz have long history of our own beef, leave us alone bitch",hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:09:34.275588Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,So ypu got UMA on API? Now P2 got 70%,flip,hold,False,True,6387.8211,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T14:54:00.624848Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Read the rules closer. ¡°Wide Consensus¡±.,increase,decrease,False,True,900.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T17:33:28.044112Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,no need to be destroyed just not functional,hold,decrease,False,True,45.1,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T19:09:37.318381Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,no more cash perhaps? Then they'll just move a bit lower and buy again,flip,decrease,False,True,578.1363,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T12:01:15.469019Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Why is Israeli Reporting not credible?,decrease,decrease,True,True,90.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:11:37.417219Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the vote is going p4 there wont be enough votes for yes and p4 is at 99% with 52% of the vote revealed,flip,increase,False,True,9.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:11:01.754772Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Are any NO holders planning to top their if it drops positions below 4c,decrease,increase,False,True,5.362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:16:19.565551Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,https://x.com/SuppressedNws/status/1938237352951914568 Ali Khamenei has said IT WORKS and the only thing damaged is THE ,increase,increase,True,True,608.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T08:36:44.600469Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Even without the US involvement, the Israeli strike alone was enough to disable Fordow. By targeting entrances and venti",decrease,increase,False,True,22.7712,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-21T08:46:30.867151Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,All that work from deeznuts not even doing that much damage lmao,hold,increase,False,True,4828.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-31T00:11:20.408762Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Hamas likewise only has the hostages left, they're never gonna agree to give them up, whilst Israel holds steadfast on t",hold,decrease,False,True,2770.0937,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-22T05:57:05.257705Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Check the sheer frustration of Yes whales throwing money and clinging to this falling knife meanwhile No whales didn¡¯t ,hold,increase,False,True,4828.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T11:37:53.248894Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,you think it's coincidence that biggest UMA tokens holders that casted a vote will be revealed later than rest and in on,flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-06-25T10:44:58.081994Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Israeli sources involved in negotiations report ""No progress on either side"" https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/skgqbhy",increase,increase,True,True,17.976,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T19:00:11.193644Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I will tell you what will happen guys, this mfer scammers will dispute, get the price of YES as max as they can, then du",flip,decrease,False,True,422.9804,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T14:42:39.174783Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,why should No be at 70 in 2-3 Days? you dont believe that yourself right?,flip,decrease,False,True,9486.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T17:00:13.230847Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Wait tf u did sell at 70 tf why did u do that though,decrease,decrease,True,True,14.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T12:52:03.270876Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Nope you are super wrong. There is not any agreement on troop withdrawal, aid flor or prisoners. Imagine falling for the",increase,increase,True,True,5.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,increase,increase,True,True,101.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T22:08:11.735281Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,BI is not a credible news source,hold,decrease,False,True,478.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T11:35:03.385466Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,this has happened many times before and will happen again. UMA votes against common sense nearly every time there¡¯s a d,hold,hold,True,True,3.7,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T16:03:13.835131Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,everyone buying yes is chasing hype no proof fordow¡¯s underground centrifuge halls are destroyed no confirmation from i,increase,increase,True,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T03:42:48.601932Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"destroyed¡± means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional, either thr",flip,hold,False,True,10495.4745,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-20T19:00:22.076529Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,No reason for peace at this point. Israel is already hated so why not just go in and take out Hamas once and for all,flip,increase,False,True,624.6285,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T15:01:14.494782Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Is there a way this just resolves or do we really have to wait the 2 days?,increase,decrease,False,True,20070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T03:49:36.701014Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No guys will lose its sad but there is nothing we can do. Polymarket wont clarify and this will resolve based on the ""ri",hold,decrease,False,True,2.39,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T05:27:21.159901Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,change that to red rises too ????????,decrease,decrease,True,True,2675.0054,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T11:50:21.236801Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Do you think rest of commit was P4! Think!,flip,decrease,False,True,4854.2135,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T12:41:41.332405Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"This is either ""No"" or P4, they havent verified that these have been destroyed and the market cant revert to ""Yes"" until",increase,hold,False,True,176.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T10:44:09.587366Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i believe the rules that says confirmation needs to be from iran or iaea,hold,hold,True,True,90.521,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T09:25:12.539491Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"After loud claims of US and Israel failed attacks and ""glorious"" retaliation strikes on empty US bases in Qatar, admitti",decrease,increase,False,True,2987.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T16:15:25.512515Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I guarantee you, nobody will care unfortunately. I've been where you're right now, with a lot more obvious scammed marke",hold,decrease,False,True,10333.9234,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T19:37:27.512586Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Prepping up hostages for a release ?????? As if there is any agreement or resolved points in the talks. Dumb little boy,hold,increase,False,True,0.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T16:01:57.329631Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,¡°Director General Grossi noted that this 48-nation network would have detected an important radioactive release from an,increase,increase,True,True,38.6568,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T13:10:27.368639Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Aight, seems like they don't want to resolve with the White House declaration and it seems that IAEA cooperation with Ir",increase,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:06.202435Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,lower high and lower low on the chart lmao - sign of weakness,decrease,decrease,True,True,1792.2,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T02:42:54.694082Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Denizz is emotionally attached to this market ) he keeeeeeeeeeeeps looooooooosin,increase,decrease,False,True,916.8407,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T13:57:55.727636Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Araqchi¡¯s claim that the damage to Iran¡¯s nuclear facility was serious appears to be a psychological operation aimed a,hold,increase,False,True,130.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T19:47:57.996298Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Why are yes and no no longer opposites ?!?,increase,hold,False,True,8.7,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-26T23:02:55.208818Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Lol this just dropped to a 1% chance by Aug 15,flip,flip,True,True,57.407,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T20:48:09.866007Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Why do you still hold such a large no position if you don¡¯t believe in it?,increase,decrease,False,True,20070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T12:10:39.148444Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Also, the rules say ""destroyed means that the underground enrichment facilities are rendered non-functional""",flip,hold,False,True,199.99,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T17:19:30.052038Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Before you click on the YES button, check this out https://www.youtube.com/shorts/b9eEqK0PWuM",increase,flip,False,True,1065.8407,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-09T13:46:29.636966Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Israel is striking against the negotiation delegation. It's over for yes holders.,hold,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-29T18:07:00.975172Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Fister got KOed by this woke Romanian Dan,hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T23:53:14.125141Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Logic and facts tell us that penetrating Fordo was impossible to achieve with such a small number of bombs, and even mor",decrease,hold,False,True,499.1528,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T02:41:50.255461Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"it will be interesting if it doesn't reach consensus, again. Otherwise that was it.",flip,hold,False,True,580.7363,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:08:11.127184Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I told you so retard. Suck my cock retard. You lost retard. AHAHAHAHAH,hold,increase,False,True,268.984,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-05T20:20:19.324286Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"why did you sell? it was an easy win, you can buy the one that they wont make peace till 31st of august, ez win",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:17:14.683494Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"With UMA - ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE, I LITERALLY CALLED IT LMAO",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T20:09:25.257232Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"JRJS, i did not see you chicken out, well rip",increase,decrease,False,True,1236.1407,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:41:21.681131Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i dont know why you believe all the US haters. Nobody knows the damge inside fordow.,decrease,hold,False,True,1002.8986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T07:24:31.872939Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,That's not actually his goal though,decrease,decrease,True,True,38.2365,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T16:37:22.325279Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Take screenshots of aenews in discord if anyone has them. Collect the evidence. If they rinse us, we rinse them.",hold,increase,False,True,4670.0468,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-17T09:46:44.127717Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"Yet you hold zero Yes for 22nd july market, opinion discarded",decrease,hold,False,True,440.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T14:33:16.569603Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Yes needs 4.38M out of the remaining 5.51M tokens to reach 65% consensus. Will be close. Good luck everyone,increase,hold,False,True,8358.0144,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:16:08.910075Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"What we saw on the pictures corresponds more or less to the enrichment hall, that¡¯s what¡¯s been hit. That's a speculat",decrease,decrease,True,True,40.573,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T14:08:11.845804Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Broad consensus isn¡¯t just Reddit comments and headlines. Show confirmed statements from the IAEA, Iran, or multiple ma",increase,increase,True,True,60.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T18:01:48.960644Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Before you purchase YES shares, please just watch this https://youtube.com/shorts/b9eEqK0PWuM?si=PTQqHD38SpBBOL_t",increase,decrease,False,True,770.4412,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:43:41.538769Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if you double 10 bucks 10 times that's 10k,decrease,increase,False,True,8.51,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-06-28T10:34:28.674063Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"there will be no ceasefire, untill the hostages will return home, and hamas will not accept their release because thats ",hold,increase,False,True,15.0446,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T19:08:32.379017Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,People who betting on the out that Iran might accidentally say everything was destroyed and also not explicitly say the ,flip,hold,False,True,1074.9149,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T22:38:09.910618Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Yes holders really need a miracle to not lose this one,hold,increase,False,True,0.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-24T15:46:01.522785Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Not saying it will happen today ??,increase,decrease,False,True,347.6754,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T16:53:48.054985Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Oh noooo, i am panic selling now!",decrease,decrease,True,True,441.9971,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T08:51:39.241554Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"scroll 8h back and read, dude with nickname printer or something",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T18:32:16.807174Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,You making pocket change on july 22 to lose it all and more om august lmao. Keep hoping,increase,decrease,False,True,5.0261,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-31T21:51:47.253309Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"If Peasant beats Denizz, Scotilius, Car and scamwick, he can be the fist male to fook me right in my ass",hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:37:59.022895Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Cause you too dumb to read and understand basic rules,decrease,hold,False,True,1272.3509,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2108d6a6d001882a806121d5b09ffef061c4e04f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,101 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +552650,2025-06-27T05:32:30.147788Z,destroy that nuclear facility for me 5,decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-25T07:04:25.814269Z,"""The assessment also noted that underground sections of the sites, where Iran's most sensitive work is done, were largel",decrease,hold,False +541647,2025-07-21T08:46:30.867151Z,All that work from deeznuts not even doing that much damage lmao,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-25T20:33:12.389078Z,"agreed, CIA is as credible as Trump.",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-22T13:02:52.431385Z,"Primary resolution sources saying not destroyed. Why do you think they called PRIMARY sources? Also, even the US said th",decrease,hold,False +551017,2025-07-09T19:37:27.512586Z,Prepping up hostages for a release ?????? As if there is any agreement or resolved points in the talks. Dumb little boy,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-22T11:36:25.763767Z,"I¡¯m no expert, but AI says the only way to be certain is through an inspection and for obvious reasons, that¡¯s impossi",decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-22T09:23:34.535093Z,"so much cope. The US got involved exclusively to destroy Fordow. If somehow they didnt on their first shot, they will go",decrease,hold,False +551017,2025-07-12T18:56:26.788679Z,"Man, I wouldn¡¯t call other retards when you bet on the same thing and lose for months",hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-26T08:36:44.600469Z,"Even without the US involvement, the Israeli strike alone was enough to disable Fordow. By targeting entrances and venti",decrease,hold,False +551017,2025-07-18T07:24:31.872939Z,That's not actually his goal though,decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-26T13:39:06.370389Z,at the end of the day the only credible source is Khamenei and he said everything is fine. this will resolve to no - htt,decrease,hold,False +563308,2025-07-21T18:52:01.887582Z,"Aki, how does life feel knowing you directly stole 60k from Denizz?",hold,hold,True +551017,2025-07-10T17:00:13.230847Z,Wait tf u did sell at 70 tf why did u do that though,decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-25T12:57:42.296847Z,it needs to be offical statement read the rules,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-27T22:08:11.735281Z,BI is not a credible news source,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-21T17:35:54.036739Z,Steve Bannon confirming with sources that the party is on this weekend,decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-28T13:58:13.648702Z,"Any yesers that have taken profit, are in the loss",decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-26T14:40:01.837379Z,"that is why i baught no after the article released and yes skyrocketet, then i learned it is up to UMA and whales to dec",hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-28T16:47:48.032315Z,"The Ukraine Mineral Market, that bitch Borntoolate threw in 5 million votes to steal all the money. Now they¡¯ve changed",hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-26T19:29:58.261564Z,"read how the thing is pharased again ""For the purposes of this market, ¡°destroyed¡± means that the underground enrichme",decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-28T05:27:21.159901Z,change that to red rises too ????????,decrease,decrease,True +551017,2025-07-09T22:38:09.910618Z,Yes holders really need a miracle to not lose this one,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-28T20:29:24.378538Z,bro get out of that position ASAP like the other guy said if you are not in on it. they could make it P4 last second to ,decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-27T22:30:02.899147Z,Remember when you're dad beat you because you were retarded?,decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-26T21:35:22.442227Z,arb guy you better hope you were right to switch,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-27T13:57:55.727636Z,Araqchi¡¯s claim that the damage to Iran¡¯s nuclear facility was serious appears to be a psychological operation aimed a,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-25T11:46:10.066162Z,"""either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike."" guess 12 30K lb bombs don't qualify as a targeted s",decrease,decrease,True +541647,2025-10-03T19:53:25.568279Z,Haha no ceasefire. No way Israel is accepting Hamas have a role in any country in the future. Ceasefire is basically use,decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-22T01:08:29.005928Z,"Its not about centrifuges, but the facilities housing",decrease,decrease,True +541647,2025-07-22T05:57:05.257705Z,Check the sheer frustration of Yes whales throwing money and clinging to this falling knife meanwhile No whales didn¡¯t ,hold,decrease,False +563309,2025-08-05T20:20:19.324286Z,"why did you sell? it was an easy win, you can buy the one that they wont make peace till 31st of august, ez win",hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-26T11:38:57.644749Z,"Hi everyone, let's not get emotional about this. Honestly, I think it¡¯s likely to be resolved as ""Yes."" However, let's ",hold,hold,True +563309,2025-08-20T21:14:49.489841Z,Well Smotrich vows to resign if Netanyahu OKs Gaza truce,decrease,decrease,True +551017,2025-07-24T11:49:59.234795Z,crazy market look at that volume,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-28T13:11:01.754772Z,Are any NO holders planning to top their if it drops positions below 4c,decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-24T09:25:12.539491Z,"After loud claims of US and Israel failed attacks and ""glorious"" retaliation strikes on empty US bases in Qatar, admitti",decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-30T00:48:29.191545Z,What percent of votes is needed for yes to win,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-22T22:41:21.681131Z,i dont know why you believe all the US haters. Nobody knows the damge inside fordow.,decrease,hold,False +551017,2025-07-20T16:04:13.606623Z,so they need more time to pressure Hamas into accepting Israels demands. Will this be done in 10 Days? I doubt it,decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-26T10:16:08.910075Z,"What we saw on the pictures corresponds more or less to the enrichment hall, that¡¯s what¡¯s been hit. That's a speculat",decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:06.202435Z,lower high and lower low on the chart lmao - sign of weakness,decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-25T12:06:14.035791Z,"Even without the US involvement, the Israeli strike alone was enough to disable Fordow. By targeting entrances and venti",decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-25T12:54:46.200359Z,"The rules say you need confirmation from Iran or IAEA, Israel already claimed before that they destroyed Fordo",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-22T22:41:21.681131Z,i dont know why you believe all the US haters. Nobody knows the damge inside fordow.,decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-23T09:15:35.858752Z,Netanyahu did suggest a ground operation at Fordow. This could be it,decrease,decrease,True +563308,2025-07-26T23:04:45.102453Z,It's like Bibi read the rules for this market,hold,hold,True +563308,2025-08-04T00:01:51.318566Z,Funzfiz going from $438k to negative pnl territory over 5 weeks will be the 3rd wildest thing I've seen on PM. The Ukrai,decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-29T07:09:15.993462Z,It's not the platform you should blame but yourself for betting on market with such a semantic resolve mechanism. Those ,decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-29T11:35:03.385466Z,this has happened many times before and will happen again. UMA votes against common sense nearly every time there¡¯s a d,hold,hold,True +563307,2025-07-17T09:46:44.127717Z,"Yet you hold zero Yes for 22nd july market, opinion discarded",decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-23T16:15:13.613593Z,"Fellow anarcho-capitalists, i suggest you to join the market - https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-close-the-strait-o",decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-22T13:30:03.266133Z,"Now we just need Iran to do some Propaganda like ""the damage they did was like a bug"" and Yes will crash to the Ground. ",decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-23T12:01:15.469019Z,Why is Israeli Reporting not credible?,decrease,decrease,True +551017,2025-07-16T05:09:13.903842Z,guess trump is gonna be big chillin in the middle east,hold,hold,True +551017,2025-07-31T00:11:20.408762Z,"Hamas likewise only has the hostages left, they're never gonna agree to give them up, whilst Israel holds steadfast on t",hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-27T04:10:00.173424Z,"If the centrifuges are non operational but the facility remains intact, does it resolve to yes or no?",decrease,decrease,True +551017,2025-07-18T16:53:48.054985Z,"Oh noooo, i am panic selling now!",decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-22T01:20:18.494555Z,reports stating 6x bunker busters used against the one target. Plus 30 other munitions.,decrease,decrease,True +563309,2025-08-19T17:05:00.053053Z,gg to whoever bought the 73cents shares,hold,hold,True +551017,2025-07-05T08:26:14.616223Z,"Imagine thinking US would offer war guarantees to a terrorist group, lol",hold,hold,True +563308,2025-07-24T02:21:36.964405Z,"We (Hamas) want: ""the full reopening of the Rafah crossing into Egypt to allow for family reunification and the return o",decrease,decrease,True +551017,2025-06-28T10:34:28.674063Z,"there will be no ceasefire, untill the hostages will return home, and hamas will not accept their release because thats ",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-25T17:33:28.044112Z,no need to be destroyed just not functional,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-30T16:15:25.512515Z,"I guarantee you, nobody will care unfortunately. I've been where you're right now, with a lot more obvious scammed marke",hold,decrease,False +541647,2025-08-20T04:53:27.208943Z,@slight- you just blow in from stupid town or something?,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-29T00:06:59.540258Z,A 33k token holder not voting doesn't change anything,hold,hold,True +541647,2025-05-20T13:22:31.065702Z,"And, me and Denizz have long history of our own beef, leave us alone bitch",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-30T14:25:12.947146Z,"vote,make your illusions facts with Polymarket",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-05-31T21:51:47.253309Z,"If Peasant beats Denizz, Scotilius, Car and scamwick, he can be the fist male to fook me right in my ass",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-05-19T18:08:20.329945Z,Bibi is doing to the Palestinians what that despot once did to the Jews¡­,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-22T13:18:09.288096Z,but honestly this bet was always in a gray area,decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-25T10:44:09.587366Z,i believe the rules that says confirmation needs to be from iran or iaea,hold,hold,True +551017,2025-07-07T12:01:27.318054Z,"Ben Gvir: We must not agree to this deal, but we are a minority in the coalition. I can't stop this move. Lol No holders",hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-28T19:44:48.164604Z,"The reveal phase of uma is automated in a random or order of voting manner, right? is not like a voter can reveal his vo",decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-23T23:23:21.231785Z,"Centrifuges are very vibration-sensitive. They would not even need to get directly hit to become ""non-functional"". Now i",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-25T10:19:22.097607Z,"What if the IAEA issues a report based on Israeli information / evidence, assessing that the site has been rendered non-",decrease,decrease,True +551017,2025-07-07T19:58:30.748439Z,"At first, I was told that the ceasefire would happen on Friday then it was Monday, when Bibi and Trump were supposed to ",hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-28T15:13:26.527361Z,"Don¡¯t worry. Even if some wealthy participants try to manipulate the vote on UMA, the rules written on the Polymarket m",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-30T16:24:03.647576Z,"Won't hurt to let polymarket know if you'll be using them again, and why or why not. hello at polymarket dot com",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-26T14:08:11.127184Z,I told you so retard. Suck my cock retard. You lost retard. AHAHAHAHAH,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-27T23:53:14.125141Z,"Logic and facts tell us that penetrating Fordo was impossible to achieve with such a small number of bombs, and even mor",decrease,hold,False +563309,2025-08-15T20:01:54.582127Z,Times of Israel reported that Hamas negotiators in Cairo signaled a willingness to ease some of the demands that collaps,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-22T18:36:57.763476Z,and how is USA or Israel gonna confirm it you dipshit LOL Iran will never confirm that hence the fact this is easy NO,decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-23T09:43:41.538769Z,if you double 10 bucks 10 times that's 10k,decrease,decrease,True +552650,2025-06-22T09:37:59.022895Z,Cause you too dumb to read and understand basic rules,decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-26T10:57:42.101109Z,Why did i sold my shares at 14c,decrease,decrease,True +541647,2025-08-18T14:57:43.742419Z,If Israel agrees to the ceasefire that dosen't mean a end to the war. Israel and hamas will use this as a moment to regr,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-26T12:29:00.636337Z,why else would they not reveal this?,decrease,hold,False +552650,2025-06-23T11:46:24.732474Z,This market is nuts. We can all see before our very eyes the before and after satellite images with concrete dust settle,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-22T19:17:11.889037Z,we have 8 days to get the news it is destroyed because it is everyone here just talk nonsense,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-24T04:53:31.747386Z,"it won't default to no, thats not how UMA resolution works retardd",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-26T12:35:07.947513Z,omg he didnt want to use the world obliterate,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-22T10:46:06.676086Z,Depends if your going short or long,decrease,hold,False +541647,2025-05-29T18:07:00.975172Z,Fister got KOed by this woke Romanian Dan,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-30T03:49:36.701014Z,"No guys will lose its sad but there is nothing we can do. Polymarket wont clarify and this will resolve based on the ""ri",hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-25T00:39:27.353792Z,"we are literally in the same tg group, relax",decrease,hold,False +541647,2025-09-09T13:46:29.636966Z,Israel is striking against the negotiation delegation. It's over for yes holders.,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-30T16:37:22.325279Z,"Take screenshots of aenews in discord if anyone has them. Collect the evidence. If they rinse us, we rinse them.",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c2fe9a9e7b59e87a4d63825f6edc903c3f562252 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,101 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:34.363178Z,the vote is clearly heading to p4,flip,hold,False +551017,2025-07-12T18:56:26.788679Z,"Man, I wouldn¡¯t call other retards when you bet on the same thing and lose for months",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-07-21T08:46:30.867151Z,All that work from deeznuts not even doing that much damage lmao,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-28T05:39:12.248736Z,"looks like it, at the moment neither side appear to gather the 65%",flip,hold,False +551017,2025-07-17T11:10:07.453067Z,"I'm from Israel and deeply attuned to the local political landscape. From what I'm seeing on the ground, there's a real ",flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-29T17:48:13.970763Z,Did anyone send some hints to CoffeZilla about what manipulations are done here? I'm sure an investigation on polymarket,flip,hold,False +551017,2025-07-09T19:37:27.512586Z,Prepping up hostages for a release ?????? As if there is any agreement or resolved points in the talks. Dumb little boy,hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-25T20:33:12.389078Z,"agreed, CIA is as credible as Trump.",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-28T13:40:18.094286Z,"UMA turned off it on their web, but other sites like betmoar.fun have it operational",flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-27T03:33:45.198887Z,"1. the IAEA has very explicit procedures as to what counts as an ""official confirmation"", they are a regulated entity wi",flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-28T21:18:53.155948Z,you see they are btches now you got stuck at high yes for 20K votes,flip,flip,True +552650,2025-06-26T14:40:01.837379Z,"that is why i baught no after the article released and yes skyrocketet, then i learned it is up to UMA and whales to dec",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-28T20:23:16.372487Z,"why tf you still holding? if you are not part of UMA cohort, i would get the fuck off from your position ASAP, it can ve",flip,flip,True +552650,2025-06-28T22:02:33.349829Z,"you can literally count them to the .01 point at https://vote.uma.xyz/ by their system there should be revote, but we al",flip,hold,False +563308,2025-07-21T18:52:01.887582Z,"Aki, how does life feel knowing you directly stole 60k from Denizz?",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-28T08:05:33.982985Z,I'm not sure the big holders will necessarily keep their position next time. They will choose to switch if they'll think,flip,flip,True +552650,2025-06-25T12:57:42.296847Z,it needs to be offical statement read the rules,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-27T22:08:11.735281Z,BI is not a credible news source,hold,hold,True +551017,2025-07-18T10:14:28.025148Z,"If all the Hostages die, do you think he will survive?",flip,flip,True +552650,2025-06-27T00:01:15.013031Z,"were they? then is the ""we cannot say for sure"" part also part of IAEAs official confirmation of fordows destruction?",flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-27T02:15:59.994055Z,ah yes lets listen to a retarded CNN host over the General of the IAEA,flip,hold,False +551017,2025-07-09T22:38:09.910618Z,Yes holders really need a miracle to not lose this one,hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-28T16:47:48.032315Z,"The Ukraine Mineral Market, that bitch Borntoolate threw in 5 million votes to steal all the money. Now they¡¯ve changed",hold,hold,True +563309,2025-08-19T21:16:40.870767Z,no because it has to be an agreement between Israel and Hamas obviously,flip,hold,False +563307,2025-07-18T14:29:01.359307Z,Definitely not lol you know that yourself.,flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-26T11:38:57.644749Z,"Hi everyone, let's not get emotional about this. Honestly, I think it¡¯s likely to be resolved as ""Yes."" However, let's ",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-25T04:26:18.254312Z,sooo you're saying we need evidence to confirm it? Dumbass?? I will crush you.,flip,flip,True +552650,2025-06-26T21:35:22.442227Z,arb guy you better hope you were right to switch,hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-28T09:02:53.848467Z,"No kinda underappreciated here, i dunno why, it should be around 65% at very least, what's happening with this market, l",flip,flip,True +552650,2025-06-28T13:09:34.275588Z,So ypu got UMA on API? Now P2 got 70%,flip,hold,False +541647,2025-07-22T05:57:05.257705Z,Check the sheer frustration of Yes whales throwing money and clinging to this falling knife meanwhile No whales didn¡¯t ,hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-27T13:57:55.727636Z,Araqchi¡¯s claim that the damage to Iran¡¯s nuclear facility was serious appears to be a psychological operation aimed a,hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-28T23:01:47.705194Z,yeah i know we need moer whales to flip NO next vote we need info that shows what the chief said is beeing taken out of ,flip,hold,False +551017,2025-07-04T21:07:23.600759Z,It's wild that this was literally an instant replay of May but people fell for it again.,flip,flip,True +551017,2025-07-24T11:49:59.234795Z,crazy market look at that volume,hold,hold,True +563309,2025-08-05T20:20:19.324286Z,"why did you sell? it was an easy win, you can buy the one that they wont make peace till 31st of august, ez win",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-30T00:48:29.191545Z,What percent of votes is needed for yes to win,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-28T22:11:14.157081Z,"the price doesn¡¯t factor in a revote, confused",flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-25T11:33:45.100229Z,The rules state we need confirmation that the centrifuges are rendered non functional. You¡¯re probably right that they ,flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-25T12:54:46.200359Z,"The rules say you need confirmation from Iran or IAEA, Israel already claimed before that they destroyed Fordo",hold,hold,True +551017,2025-07-21T20:03:30.983166Z,"Netanyahu be like after Hamas just rejected the ceasefire: ""oh no... Anyways""",flip,flip,True +552650,2025-06-24T19:00:11.193644Z,"I will tell you what will happen guys, this mfer scammers will dispute, get the price of YES as max as they can, then du",flip,flip,True +552650,2025-06-29T12:39:39.910393Z,"slowly, but it will be 95% P2, they are chickening out on trying to dab on us with exact 16.1M votes like they tried to ",flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-27T05:52:19.657937Z,I love how you are all pumping no to sell it,flip,flip,True +563307,2025-07-18T14:42:39.174783Z,why should No be at 70 in 2-3 Days? you dont believe that yourself right?,flip,flip,True +552650,2025-06-22T00:32:55.351705Z,"pay attention to the market rules, this military theater was not to destroy Fordow YET",flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-28T11:37:53.248894Z,you think it's coincidence that biggest UMA tokens holders that casted a vote will be revealed later than rest and in on,flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-28T11:50:21.236801Z,Do you think rest of commit was P4! Think!,flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-29T11:35:03.385466Z,this has happened many times before and will happen again. UMA votes against common sense nearly every time there¡¯s a d,hold,hold,True +563308,2025-07-26T23:04:45.102453Z,It's like Bibi read the rules for this market,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-28T18:30:22.085889Z,just gonna give away 45k usd to you?,flip,hold,False +563309,2025-08-20T19:00:22.076529Z,No reason for peace at this point. Israel is already hated so why not just go in and take out Hamas once and for all,flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-29T03:42:48.601932Z,"destroyed¡± means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional, either thr",flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-28T08:11:37.530411Z,I mean why do you think they proposed for a resolution before the deadline? Because it was a bit easier to prove the poi,flip,flip,True +551017,2025-07-16T05:09:13.903842Z,guess trump is gonna be big chillin in the middle east,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-25T14:26:24.510127Z,I've invested 200 usd man not 60k. Not sure who's coping between the two of us. And at this price I've already made prof,flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-25T17:46:47.068576Z,For those of you who joined us recently: both sides are trying to interpret the rules of this market to their liking. of,flip,flip,True +551017,2025-07-31T00:11:20.408762Z,"Hamas likewise only has the hostages left, they're never gonna agree to give them up, whilst Israel holds steadfast on t",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-26T13:11:37.417219Z,the vote is going p4 there wont be enough votes for yes and p4 is at 99% with 52% of the vote revealed,flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-25T17:33:28.044112Z,no need to be destroyed just not functional,hold,flip,False +563309,2025-08-19T17:05:00.053053Z,gg to whoever bought the 73cents shares,hold,hold,True +551017,2025-06-28T10:34:28.674063Z,"there will be no ceasefire, untill the hostages will return home, and hamas will not accept their release because thats ",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-08-20T04:53:27.208943Z,@slight- you just blow in from stupid town or something?,hold,hold,True +551017,2025-07-05T08:26:14.616223Z,"Imagine thinking US would offer war guarantees to a terrorist group, lol",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-05-20T13:22:31.065702Z,"And, me and Denizz have long history of our own beef, leave us alone bitch",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-27T01:56:50.079001Z,damage to the centrifuges is irrelevant. this market is clearly about the nuclear facility itself. there is no new infor,flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-29T00:06:59.540258Z,A 33k token holder not voting doesn't change anything,hold,hold,True +541647,2025-05-31T21:51:47.253309Z,"If Peasant beats Denizz, Scotilius, Car and scamwick, he can be the fist male to fook me right in my ass",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-30T16:15:25.512515Z,"I guarantee you, nobody will care unfortunately. I've been where you're right now, with a lot more obvious scammed marke",hold,flip,False +551017,2025-07-10T20:19:25.760847Z,?????????? charles had the fucking leg man he had that shit,flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-29T19:09:37.318381Z,no more cash perhaps? Then they'll just move a bit lower and buy again,flip,flip,True +552650,2025-06-30T14:25:12.947146Z,"vote,make your illusions facts with Polymarket",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-05-19T18:08:20.329945Z,Bibi is doing to the Palestinians what that despot once did to the Jews¡­,hold,flip,False +551017,2025-07-07T12:01:27.318054Z,"Ben Gvir: We must not agree to this deal, but we are a minority in the coalition. I can't stop this move. Lol No holders",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-25T10:44:09.587366Z,i believe the rules that says confirmation needs to be from iran or iaea,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-26T14:08:11.127184Z,I told you so retard. Suck my cock retard. You lost retard. AHAHAHAHAH,hold,flip,False +563309,2025-07-26T23:02:55.208818Z,Lol this just dropped to a 1% chance by Aug 15,flip,flip,True +552650,2025-06-30T16:24:03.647576Z,"Won't hurt to let polymarket know if you'll be using them again, and why or why not. hello at polymarket dot com",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-25T18:27:19.640639Z,"""Tusi Gabbard = unreliable. Needs to be from Iran. Born and raised""",flip,flip,True +552650,2025-06-23T23:23:21.231785Z,"Centrifuges are very vibration-sensitive. They would not even need to get directly hit to become ""non-functional"". Now i",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-30T02:41:50.255461Z,"it will be interesting if it doesn't reach consensus, again. Otherwise that was it.",flip,hold,False +551017,2025-07-07T19:58:30.748439Z,"At first, I was told that the ceasefire would happen on Friday then it was Monday, when Bibi and Trump were supposed to ",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-26T23:56:04.889486Z,"no, if official IAEA channels had been used, this market would be resolved. but they were not used. we instead got an un",flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-25T12:10:39.148444Z,"Also, the rules say ""destroyed means that the underground enrichment facilities are rendered non-functional""",flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-28T15:13:26.527361Z,"Don¡¯t worry. Even if some wealthy participants try to manipulate the vote on UMA, the rules written on the Polymarket m",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-26T05:55:36.756116Z,Did you even read the article you shared?,flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-26T13:23:14.123524Z,vote is going p4 which means yes is going to lose this one,flip,flip,True +563309,2025-08-15T20:01:54.582127Z,Times of Israel reported that Hamas negotiators in Cairo signaled a willingness to ease some of the demands that collaps,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-28T22:17:14.683494Z,"With UMA - ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE, I LITERALLY CALLED IT LMAO",flip,flip,True +552650,2025-06-24T04:53:31.747386Z,"it won't default to no, thats not how UMA resolution works retardd",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-08-18T14:57:43.742419Z,If Israel agrees to the ceasefire that dosen't mean a end to the war. Israel and hamas will use this as a moment to regr,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-26T12:35:07.947513Z,omg he didnt want to use the world obliterate,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-22T19:17:11.889037Z,we have 8 days to get the news it is destroyed because it is everyone here just talk nonsense,hold,flip,False +541647,2025-09-09T13:46:29.636966Z,Israel is striking against the negotiation delegation. It's over for yes holders.,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-23T11:46:24.732474Z,This market is nuts. We can all see before our very eyes the before and after satellite images with concrete dust settle,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-24T19:08:32.379017Z,People who betting on the out that Iran might accidentally say everything was destroyed and also not explicitly say the ,flip,hold,False +552650,2025-06-29T08:51:39.241554Z,"scroll 8h back and read, dude with nickname printer or something",flip,hold,False +541647,2025-05-29T18:07:00.975172Z,Fister got KOed by this woke Romanian Dan,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-30T03:49:36.701014Z,"No guys will lose its sad but there is nothing we can do. Polymarket wont clarify and this will resolve based on the ""ri",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-30T16:37:22.325279Z,"Take screenshots of aenews in discord if anyone has them. Collect the evidence. If they rinse us, we rinse them.",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f71ee92beb35e5c8c143bb7c2392d09692f9fd5b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +551017,2025-07-04T19:05:07.567441Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Until 15 of July it¡¯s easy money.,hold,increase,False,True,2.1422,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:42:37.180012Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Benni can suck my dick, votes for P2 are near exact needed for consensus, what are the odds? :P",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T16:47:14.727668Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,How? Throw more bombs exactly through the holes the gbu57s made? I doubt that's entirely possible,decrease,increase,False,True,107.097,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-19T05:19:22.770225Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,I am out before people do another bullrun bases on Trump yapping,hold,decrease,False,True,499.8977,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T09:02:49.547503Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Noobs falling for the trap again,increase,increase,True,True,0.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:24:23.637964Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"AHAHAHA Yes (P2) 15.85M(68.8%) it was 15.84M seconds ago, they literally just add small amounts out of thin air now",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:20:18.790696Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"jesus, you made me watch the most pathetic self glazing propaganda desquised as a press conference",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0128,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T14:06:42.588842Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,HHAHAHA FAIL SCAM THEY CAME SO CLOSE. EVEN IF ALL REMAINING VOTES GOTO YES IT WONT BE ENOUGH TO MEET THE 70% AND ON THE ,increase,increase,True,True,965.4603,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T17:36:07.998991Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"So far today we have IAEA, Washington Post, CNN, Pentagon¡¯s Defence Intelligence Agency, and intercepted phone calls be",increase,increase,True,True,160.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T14:25:12.947146Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"vote,make your illusions facts with Polymarket",hold,hold,True,True,13.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:40:18.094286Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"UMA turned off it on their web, but other sites like betmoar.fun have it operational",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T14:45:33.164733Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"As if both of these clowns are gonna come to a ceasefire by the end of the year, let alone August 15th ??????",hold,increase,False,True,3.87,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T17:43:07.310396Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,maybe thats the one they are working on =],hold,hold,True,True,453.1314,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-22T19:12:38.005238Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,I literally took a nap and woke up to free money,hold,increase,False,True,4828.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T17:58:11.640805Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,which expert is this? Jewish American expert?,increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T16:39:13.951218Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Polymarket is organized like a fishy offshore casino. Unfortunately they are not attackable. Only for Germans there is a,hold,decrease,False,True,10333.9234,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T18:32:26.191965Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,King sh1t! Slap that in wall st bets or wall st apes too! We can crush these guys amd blow up their positions without th,hold,increase,False,True,4670.0468,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T15:03:13.068385Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Can someone explain to me, how does some people own 200-500K and 1M+ UMA tokens, while the token liquidity is only 200K ",increase,hold,False,True,1327.5795,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T19:25:53.002514Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Israel attacks while Bahrain's PM visiting - wonder how that conversation is helping the ceasefire or making it worse ??,increase,decrease,False,True,589.4147,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T07:13:12.475946Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,CNN has even apologized for their reporting on fordow and using that incorrect leaked assessment,increase,decrease,False,True,20070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T20:55:54.418782Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i have no idead, but your 108K is good",decrease,hold,False,True,22.142,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-03T21:31:12.080515Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Trump: Based on the Statement just issued by Hamas, I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE. Israel must immediatel",flip,flip,True,True,83.5267,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T14:07:18.273233Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This is very simple. The facility is very likely destroyed by the definition set it the rules. No holders are trying to ,increase,increase,True,True,536.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:39:01.683464Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,basically aenews2 decides whatever he likes,decrease,hold,False,True,4.5056,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T18:16:49.497204Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I was quoting the article by Israel Hayom. They say ""agreement"" but obviously referring to ceasefire",decrease,hold,False,True,108.7,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T19:42:41.226391Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Lol, I will say a prayer for you my brother.",increase,decrease,False,True,685.63,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T10:30:53.728046Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If confirmation requires IAEA to enter the Fordow facility, that's not going to happen while the war is ongoing.",increase,increase,True,True,92.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T18:02:36.683407Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,maybe you can say some prayers for the lost Fordow nuclear facility.,increase,decrease,False,True,196.7524,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T19:39:14.887245Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I think even if that interpretation is true it actually doesn¡¯t matter. If the facilities are non-functional for any re,increase,increase,True,True,685.63,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T11:33:45.100229Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The rules state we need confirmation that the centrifuges are rendered non functional. You¡¯re probably right that they ,decrease,decrease,True,True,80.4,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T13:55:45.411334Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Yeah, also I am not sure, whether Netanyahu and Hamas will agree on the terms anytime soon. Israel wants the whole of Ga",flip,decrease,False,True,500.9898,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:36:43.004145Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"They just close it as Yes, no explanation given",flip,flip,True,True,2500.0002,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:17:25.974539Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Whats the contract id for etherscan?,increase,hold,False,True,6387.8211,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:39:06.370389Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,at the end of the day the only credible source is Khamenei and he said everything is fine. this will resolve to no - htt,increase,increase,True,True,1792.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:25:20.996242Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,yeah FAKE articles will really help your case guys!,decrease,decrease,True,True,221.6191,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-25T02:06:52.773737Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,The hate in the comments is out of control lol,hold,hold,True,True,136.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T01:11:47.291483Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I had 1.6k NO but I have realized I'm wrong and the rules are way too ambiguous. I think these facilities were destroyed,decrease,flip,False,True,176.4616,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T05:10:34.400484Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The iaea literally confirmed centrifuge destroyed and it was previously yes don¡¯t know why anyone actually still on no,decrease,increase,False,True,1010.2982,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-06-05T13:13:26.446804Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Before you buy YES please watch this https://www.youtube.com/shorts/b9eEqK0PWuM,hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T08:46:53.905891Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I think a lot of people FOMO'd in without looking at the rules,increase,decrease,False,True,4715.7552,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-01T05:08:01.727143Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"If the war ends with one side winning, how will the market resolve? The rules do not specify",hold,decrease,False,True,131.695,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T17:20:49.674557Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"they are trying to protect the narative more than enything else, if narative falls or the price dips a bit panic kicks i",flip,decrease,False,True,33.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T06:08:34.271222Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"yes holders will vote in dispute, they hold majority of tokens(votes) and don't care for reality, only care about scammi",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:57:07.437543Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Don¡¯t have to take his word for it. If he doesn¡¯t say it¡¯s damaged resolution takes No,increase,hold,False,True,22.7748,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T13:07:28.648792Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,deeznuts please buy my yes Order at 48. Appreciate it,decrease,hold,False,True,19140.9158,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T12:04:24.288885Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,pump is over. You know what happens now,flip,decrease,False,True,21440.8926,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T23:32:05.740446Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Both sides of this bet are unfalsifiable until the site is entered by Iran or IAEA. Which may not take place before July,flip,decrease,False,True,8600.8608,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:58:00.111579Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The burden of proof is for yes. Dont forget that,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T09:11:50.155695Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Netanyahu¡¯s gamble, the Haredi bluff For Netanyahu, the Haredi threat is serious, but it¡¯s not the only one. Should he",hold,decrease,False,True,1925.3461,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T10:37:26.978518Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Satellite images show that the Iranian regime blocked the entrance to the Fordow nuclear weapon site to prevent an Israe,decrease,increase,False,True,2768.65,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:43:17.531099Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,If they can lie about the uranium not being moved what more they lie about,decrease,decrease,True,True,167.6443,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:00:07.681373Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Centrifuges not operational - IAEA chief,flip,decrease,False,True,232.8953,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T20:09:48.202329Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Buying more NO here. This money means nothing to me but the truth means everything to me. Market structure matters.,increase,increase,True,True,1764.37,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T11:53:18.458228Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"the thing is, even if yes get over 50% this will clearly be disputed and there will be revotes which ultimately may not ",decrease,decrease,True,True,298.55,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T12:10:45.601723Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,I¡¯d be scrambling if I were a yes holder,increase,increase,True,True,182.2705,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-24T14:21:37.054741Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,They are recalling their side from the negotiations,decrease,increase,False,True,80.2764,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-23T19:22:08.427886Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Negotiations may enter a new round of technical consultations,hold,decrease,False,True,227.3835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T13:06:13.165672Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"hahah the latest news are reporting on Israel and Trump saying the same since day 1, but now it is a paper, they are foo",increase,decrease,False,True,171.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T09:32:40.345673Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"This has clearly not met the criteria to be passed through as ""Yes"", Furdow Enrichment Facilities havn't been destroyed",increase,increase,True,True,68.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T17:20:05.662713Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro look at your PNL LOOL I just know you're red in the head right now boutta beat your moms ass for not wiping your ass,hold,hold,True,True,157.87,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T06:53:19.703Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Lets listen to the -130$ pnl brainless dumb fck,increase,decrease,False,True,5.0261,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:57:28.718121Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Centrifuges not operational - IAEA chief,flip,decrease,False,True,664.9723,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T07:11:51.941376Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"dude, if its deigned to take a nuke it can surely swallow a few of those bunker busters it would be insane to think the ",flip,decrease,False,True,833.9839,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:56:03.266729Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I think he knows polymarket rules,flip,hold,False,True,664.9723,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-01T07:54:27.337883Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Strap me in a vest and I'll run around down there yelling racial slurs to both sides, keeping the war going :)",decrease,hold,False,True,91.5065,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T16:53:55.357328Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Everyone should go to Discord to make videos on YouTube to spread the fraud that is Polymarket until it reaches all user,hold,hold,True,True,2.3109,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:22:21.067485Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"5. The lone ""IAEA confirmed"" quote is from an informal interview. Ynet (and NY Post syndication) ran a story quoting Gro",increase,decrease,False,True,469.8302,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-24T10:35:28.751795Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,you are crazy if you actually believe that,flip,increase,False,True,17940.6157,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:36:57.991453Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Yes is going to be 10% in 2 days,decrease,flip,False,True,167.6443,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:43:03.541742Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"when aenews2 sells his yes, it's over for everyone",increase,increase,True,True,1792.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T01:30:04.927994Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,He already did it in the tweet,hold,hold,True,True,2483.4909,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:27:00.664337Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,They all have the same agenda. When did he last check them out? This can't be resolved to neiter yer or no with credibil,decrease,decrease,True,True,8674.9636,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T00:07:28.020369Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Also Hamas position, no better deal. 60 days prepare or 10 hostages for neg worth more. Israel strike anyway",hold,decrease,False,True,969.6813,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-06-13T02:56:05.371345Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I love you, you are my fav whale",decrease,hold,False,True,990.79,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T19:01:11.218353Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If Risk Labs votes correctly as per the rules, and so do the other people in UMA then this should resolve to no. If not ",decrease,increase,False,True,95.772,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-05T10:56:48.260809Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"A ceasefire agreement BETWEEN Israel and Hamas is not needed to reach the negotiated goals, if each side agrees to cease",flip,decrease,False,True,2.7421,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:49:10.924854Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Honestly, if Yes holders are that sure, why are they not volunteering to go there, take pictures, and then propose this ",decrease,increase,False,True,523.8486,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:45:33.948939Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,yeah but price is locked with numerous big buy walls so until they get filles/removed price aint going no where,decrease,hold,False,True,33.858,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T17:07:20.382023Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i am very well aware. However hitting the hole itself is not enough, the angle needs to be considered as well so the bom",decrease,decrease,True,True,107.097,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:24:28.102085Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,https://vote.uma.xyz/ you can go here and check the vote yourself you need at least 60% of the vote and we already have ,flip,hold,False,True,9.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T02:23:49.368217Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"that was quick enough, I can go sleep now",flip,hold,False,True,580.7363,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T18:34:50.138122Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,soon enough even ChatGPT and other AI bots will caution about PM scaming in their responses since they train on reddit p,flip,hold,False,True,578.1363,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:54:50.056875Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"You are right, but if the IAEA or photos come out and show it is still intact, my position will jump 50 to 100% while yo",increase,decrease,False,True,1500.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T00:32:30.255434Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Even if it wasn¡¯t destroyed in this attack, it will be in the next ones. Buying Yes now is insanely easy money",hold,increase,False,True,3917.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T19:45:38.785753Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This is the largest Yes hurdle I think. The IAEA has yet to say anything definitive though they have speculated it is no,increase,decrease,False,True,685.63,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-25T15:22:19.001915Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Top 3 yes holders lost almost half a mil on this market,hold,decrease,False,True,168.2816,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:56:48.304533Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the grief that arbguy would feel if this goes no is immeasurable,hold,hold,True,True,1886.0723,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-29T20:44:01.646361Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"The second faction holding hostages in Gaza, Islamic Jihad, has already rejected the deal through an official statement ",hold,flip,False,True,22.7586,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-29T14:19:58.745253Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"You can care be able to do nothing, no contradiction here. If there is someone I can actually save at an acceptable cost",flip,hold,False,True,131.0852,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:18:08.796421Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Can you summarize it please Everytime I try to open it, it says XML file not supported",increase,hold,False,True,3539.2928,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T15:14:53.091849Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Don't try to reason with him, he's a literal third worlder",decrease,hold,False,True,3503.9934,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:38:17.045707Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,odds of what? rigged UMA vote?,flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:23:14.123524Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,vote is going p4 which means yes is going to lose this one,flip,hold,False,True,9.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-04T21:43:48.036196Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"So Hamas stated their conditions for a ceasefire, which have been previously rejected multiple times by Israel. They wan",decrease,increase,False,True,1918.5787,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T23:25:33.095954Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Cute. If you utilise this under-the-radar tool called Google, on this ethereal thing you can't touch or see but is every",flip,hold,False,True,327.5557,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T14:31:34.969148Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,maybe I will buy a bunch of UMA tokens and start rigging the market for myself,hold,decrease,False,True,12522.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T03:45:25.528518Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No more money left! But I know this will drop soon, this happened every day since Sunday",flip,decrease,False,True,1472.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T21:27:23.446427Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Ye bro from what i understand there is this uma coin that decides what outcome happens, it's basically a stake to decide",hold,decrease,False,True,33.7184,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:17:35.322643Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"ok, care to share where did you obtain such info? i too would like to see votes cast before reveal phase fulfilled",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T06:27:59.746269Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,No. Iran's opinion is prior to wide consensus,decrease,hold,False,True,981.4246,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T11:30:36.046045Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Fordow may be destroyed, but it will always live on in the hearts of No holders everywhere.",flip,decrease,False,True,968.86,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-09T08:45:43.076379Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Old news. Also Israel are about to take all of Gaza City. You don¡¯t give up until the enemy is dead. Also Hamas already,decrease,increase,False,True,67.4446,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T14:41:37.451764Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It¡¯s a shame UMA and we obviously need another oracle system--profits come too easily through manipulation, and the pen",flip,hold,False,True,10773.3813,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T09:49:17.132331Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"AI Generated, i just posed the ""rules"" and asked it to predict the verdict based on avalable information",decrease,hold,False,True,183.02,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T21:59:21.246974Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,or is it a rising triangle? i think i see a trex!,decrease,hold,False,True,18565.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:37:02.730321Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Netanyahu remarks ""very significant damage"" to Fordow",flip,increase,False,True,8600.8608,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:39:48.341467Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Deep penetrator ammunition. Not fire bomb.,decrease,increase,False,True,57.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:18:56.220011Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"IRAN, THE LAST STRONGHOLD OF NORMALITY HAS WON!!! FORDOW IS INTACT",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T04:00:43.252367Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,this is so ridiculous Bibi dragged the U.S. into a war by bombing a facility that theoretically couldn¡¯t even be taken ,decrease,increase,False,True,523.8486,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-02T18:03:28.343405Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"No, their demand is a horizon towards a permanent ceasefire",decrease,flip,False,True,71.3,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T08:58:50.049406Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Bro I would just redeem it on 1st, you¡¯re welcome to sell your shares if you think a ceasefire is coming soon",hold,hold,True,True,39829.66,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T16:57:08.642531Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Imagine Polymarket team intervenes to restore credibility to this shitty platform before The market resolves,hold,hold,True,True,233.54,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T20:44:19.686641Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Everything you see/hear is part of your OWN imagination )))) ITS a NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!,hold,increase,False,True,1236.1407,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T09:04:13.987664Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,can anyone tldr quick the spike of NO? jus woke up lol,increase,hold,False,True,113.5985,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:29:08.728312Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,FELLOW MAGAPEDES TRUMP SAID FORDOW WAS HECKIN OBLITERATED! HE WOULDNT LIE TO ME AGAIN RIGHT?? RIGHT... YES BROS?,decrease,decrease,True,True,16372.2944,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T06:34:41.182357Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,didnt the state department say it was destroyed or am i wrong,increase,decrease,False,True,255.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T15:00:46.524403Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Can someone sell me 21 shares at 72 cents I fucked up ??,flip,decrease,False,True,14.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T13:44:49.353918Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,After looking at this I used my brain and bought NO,hold,hold,True,True,1925.3461,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T23:25:47.996477Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,That is my understanding. I assume we would have to wait until damage is assessed before resolution,flip,decrease,False,True,8600.8608,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T18:25:59.943107Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"rendered non functional through physical damage, meaning that the blast reached there and destroyed it all. No official ",flip,decrease,False,True,33.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:18:06.217088Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,lmao you lost retad. dumbass PEPE profile pic. are you fucking 12. yet off of polymarket and stop using mommys credit ca,hold,decrease,False,True,268.984,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T02:33:53.635062Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,this market isn't about Mr Orange Man words or not,hold,hold,True,True,157.87,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:06:37.732188Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"IAEA: ""At this time, no one, including the IAEA is in a position to fully assess the underground damage at Fordow""",flip,decrease,False,True,8600.8608,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T04:21:12.875267Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,it dosent matter what ynt sais,decrease,hold,False,True,2675.0054,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T18:34:50.138122Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,soon enough even ChatGPT and other AI bots will caution about PM scaming in their responses since they train on reddit p,flip,hold,False,True,578.1363,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T08:38:44.452052Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,when will the truth nuke be announced? at 8AM ET?,flip,hold,False,True,151.5856,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T14:18:03.936247Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,pack it up the delusion is gonna end tmr when youll redeem ur 160k shares for 0 dollars average,flip,flip,True,True,81.874,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-07T01:56:59.248213Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,¡° Senior Hamas official says group¡¯s control over Gaza has ¡®completely collapsed¡± times of israel,increase,decrease,False,True,551.5953,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-23T13:15:45.066583Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Oh well, no more discounts I guess",hold,decrease,False,True,4828.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T20:37:19.427531Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Ok you are really either stupid or UMA whale alt, the fuck your bombs even have to do with UMA voting?",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T01:08:51.363414Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Yeah one B2 can hold 2 of em. Mustve sent 3 to Fordow then 1 each to the two other sites,hold,increase,False,True,58.97,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T22:52:28.659017Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,They will also hug each other and have a BBQ outside Fordow ??,hold,decrease,False,True,1472.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T11:50:31.877491Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,for a confirmation of the damage it needs to be conducted by iranian authorities or iaeo,increase,hold,False,True,33.231,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:58:03.003723Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,People who don't understand how BUNKER BUSTERS work. It's deep penetration. The satellite images support that.,decrease,increase,False,True,2768.65,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:36:14.881068Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"This is going to be unknown until someone enters Fordow, if that's even possible before July.",flip,decrease,False,True,8600.8608,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:30:40.241076Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Where do you see this shit? UMA disc?,decrease,decrease,True,True,755.36,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T18:37:58.746473Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The communication, intended to be private, included Iranian government officials speculating as to why the strikes direc",flip,decrease,False,True,33.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T21:33:51.564444Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,discussion can be helpful for sure... but that's not really who i'm referring to,increase,hold,False,True,19.49,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-20T13:23:20.444933Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,need a lot of money for such tact though,hold,decrease,False,True,499.8977,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:28:10.783799Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,@Argby stop the spam man. You look desperate,decrease,decrease,True,True,199.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T20:27:36.462532Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,imagine buying yes at 48c instead of at 32c in 4 hours from now!,decrease,flip,False,True,319.9922,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-23T10:39:56.308904Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Hamas said they cant reach their Leader which is true because I had problems with my Internet Connection for the past we,flip,hold,False,True,13121.738,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T23:50:54.596646Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Imagine we create a market that says ""John will get punched by December 31st, and it will only resolve 'Yes' if John adm",hold,decrease,False,True,1039.31,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T04:54:12.471326Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Go do your own research man, I have done mine on exactly that. Otherwise I wouldn¡¯t be holding my position",hold,increase,False,True,2290.9833,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T15:55:38.320848Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"there is ceasfire, fordow is still not destroyed i dont know why people hope to be destroyed only one day remains",increase,decrease,False,True,253.8946,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:24:25.781638Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I checked the UMA docs, i am not so sure about that",increase,decrease,False,True,7.362,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T21:29:52.026871Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"'Several other issues still need to be discussed, though, so an announcement of a deal this fast is not likely.' Oops",flip,decrease,False,True,589.5018,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:07:45.175213Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,you couldnt know that cus jeets are not allowed into Iran,flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-14T16:29:18.411682Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"hat extra 2 km isn¡¯t going to contribute to peace, my guy",hold,hold,True,True,40.4386,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T01:25:56.774392Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,you are quite eloquent for a crackhead,decrease,hold,False,True,18565.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T15:06:07.986072Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Lmao I thought it was going to be some super complex chart but it really is that simple,increase,hold,False,True,3539.2928,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T19:35:58.262675Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,You think that cause you are insanely dumb and uninformed lil buddy,hold,hold,True,True,0.0261,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T17:46:20.964793Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"There is no way that Fordow wasn't at least rendered unusable which will resovlve to yes. nothing can surivve 12, 30000l",increase,increase,True,True,183.5828,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T03:47:46.747331Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"We told you, we told you day before yesterday, yesterday and today. Yes spike price, dump their shares, new Yes arrive h",flip,decrease,False,True,1472.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T19:05:11.007706Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"¡° facilities housing centrifuges¡± Not even centrifuges, facilities housing them.",increase,decrease,False,True,685.63,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-06-02T08:42:56.723814Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Funny how everything today gets framed as an emotional clash between two tribes, when really, it's just people trying to",flip,hold,False,True,9967.5518,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T08:48:55.040358Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,He doent know shit he just rich buying more and more,hold,increase,False,True,1925.3461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:35:35.640228Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I read the rules 10 times and realized that truth is above the rules and I made a rational choice.,increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:11.760497Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i doubt it, but anyways i put in this market only throwaway money",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T15:01:14.494782Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Is there a way this just resolves or do we really have to wait the 2 days?,hold,decrease,False,True,20070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T18:14:41.596308Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If you are not paperhands, then NOI",decrease,increase,False,True,422.9804,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T16:30:18.701677Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The entrances are clearly part of the underground enrichment facilities lol,hold,hold,True,True,936.74,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T01:37:35.021774Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The primary resolution source will be official confirmation from Iran or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) c,decrease,hold,False,True,104.9991,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T12:26:37.938552Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"To my knowledge, The ayatollah could be in there having a rave party with his friends",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T22:10:44.442592Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,It is by the resolutional definition.,increase,hold,False,True,685.63,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T19:31:59.729553Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Voting started ages ago. you want to know when the ""reval period"" starts",decrease,hold,False,True,22.142,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T08:47:14.607926Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Actually, Iran already admitted it was destroyed - the real issue is that they denied it the very next day, lol.",increase,hold,False,True,2868.6832,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:09:40.254993Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Total tokens that revealed 100.1%23,245,677.42 WHAT??????????? how is it 100.1% REVEALED? WHAT IS THIS LOOOOOOOOOOOOL SC",increase,decrease,False,True,2085.9595,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T22:17:34.261192Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Might have to sell my Yes in 2025 ceasefire shares at this rate; https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/hamas-israel-netanyahu-t,flip,decrease,False,True,18.5627,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T14:31:52.074812Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Fun fact: Last months when negotiations didnt work out for 2 weeks and Israel started accusing Hamas of not accepting, s",hold,increase,False,True,1925.3461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T03:00:18.475747Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Israel is a country made up of illegal immigrants who stole the land. The jews have land in Siberia that they can go to ,increase,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T08:51:39.241554Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"scroll 8h back and read, dude with nickname printer or something",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T21:45:29.519781Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Reports that Fordow was attacked or struck, or confirmation of damage to above-ground structures or auxiliary buildings ",increase,hold,False,True,43.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T01:03:32.726862Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"BREAKING: Fordow nuclear facility has been 'taken off the table' according to initial damage assessment, a US official t",increase,flip,False,True,520.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T15:32:17.359033Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Bro, by 20th you will have less than a week to get a deal, and then to be sealed/signed and confirmed by both parties, l",hold,decrease,False,True,39829.66,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T11:47:08.259295Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"That is not true, nobody knows what is inside of fordow, much less what this market will resolve to",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T19:46:32.600724Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,mangotree is single handedly holding the YES price as high as it is. Ive been watching him buy buy buy. He hold a large ,decrease,decrease,True,True,95.772,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T07:45:44.455689Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,They already said no radiation signals detected,hold,increase,False,True,19.8742,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:35:58.888488Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,yes and the iranians said us targeted only the entries,increase,flip,False,True,10.461,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T17:28:08.228227Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"9 Days left btw. For official Announcement, not progress",flip,hold,False,True,21440.8926,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:12:34.569604Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Total tokens that committed 23,224,547.98 Total tokens that revealed 100.1% 23,245,677.42 :)",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T22:56:13.485367Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Screenshotted. Ill tag/remind you you on July 31st,hold,hold,True,True,1060.4386,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T22:23:43.977134Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,ceasefire this means iaea comes in to inspect,hold,decrease,False,True,1002.8986,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:50:26.958452Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,chart is looking 1:1 like from june 22nd. same timeframe and everything,decrease,hold,False,True,18565.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:46:53.704595Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""A senior U.S. official acknowledged that the B-2 attack on the Fordo site did not destroy the heavily fortified facilit",decrease,flip,False,True,137.54,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:06:23.157194Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,it¡¯s actually the opposite but poly¡¯s credibility has been lost for a while,decrease,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:07:05.646415Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Read again If you think its the only Primary source. It aint that hard you will make it eventually,increase,decrease,False,True,1272.3509,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T00:35:39.987487Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"For the yestards who are trying to pump: if there is no confirmation of destruction by July, the Nos win. It will not be",decrease,increase,False,True,964.0341,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T18:04:11.429554Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""Fordow Nuclear Facility Completely Destroyed in Confirmed Strike, Say Israeli Intelligence and IAEA""",increase,increase,True,True,201.5524,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:16:49.058093Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"however, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",decrease,hold,False,True,2483.4909,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T17:24:22.971108Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"and the market cap went under 1M, people are leaving when they should join NOs and liquidate the YES asks which are very",flip,increase,False,True,578.1363,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T23:35:28.294544Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Because of deadline time i think it will be a no market :)),increase,hold,False,True,3.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-06T12:41:55.676783Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Jesus, I was not expecting this that fast",increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T23:02:34.862703Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,To my numbers it is actually 16.2 (number of tokens comitted * 0.7),hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T23:28:49.496035Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Grok:The claim that centrifuges at Iran's Fordow nuclear facility are no longer operational due to U.S. strikes is suppo,hold,increase,False,True,561.2426,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:44:16.258327Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Can someone propose? Official statement Centrifuge not operational,flip,decrease,False,True,836.9723,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T12:46:48.546087Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,so it can go the other way as well,decrease,decrease,True,True,562.6559,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T13:33:32.489058Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"On Monday, Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA, said that while ¡°no one, including the IAEA, is in ",increase,decrease,False,True,952.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T17:25:24.404766Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Seeing you crying like a little bitch cause of 100$ feels nice hahahah,hold,hold,True,True,1719.89,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T06:05:51.149694Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It's not about the actual situation, but whether we receive official confirmation by the deadline. Honestly, this setup ",decrease,decrease,True,True,26169.9768,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3f73cd4e2bc4f85495ac46da1c29d900273d6ead --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +551017,2025-07-16T12:54:35.470231Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,There's a bug. No one can see it.,increase,hold,False,True,8.7,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T13:06:31.038804Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"holy shit is market manipulation that easy? a single j*w ""journalist"" posts a picture of a printed out text and this thi",flip,decrease,False,True,10.3723,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:11.760497Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i doubt it, but anyways i put in this market only throwaway money",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T07:27:58.150926Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I discovered several different accounts on this platform from the same user applying scams,hold,hold,True,True,2.3109,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T20:35:46.684191Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the opportunity for a scam is in the rules for resolution,decrease,decrease,True,True,570.6559,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T13:20:39.211876Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This is like a betting website FFS. Everybody just tries to find sources that confirm their bet. To everyone involved in,decrease,decrease,True,True,199.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:00:17.864868Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,My precious Fordow plant has been completely destroyed.,increase,increase,True,True,231.5838,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T07:44:27.188298Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Nah he¡¯s fishy he joined last month only and made 300k plus profit .. think maybe he¡¯s in gov or idf soldier,hold,decrease,False,True,4906.6019,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-08-06T19:12:46.399402Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"i was up 6K, then got fucked on elon bet when the bracket changed :( ill recover it, always do",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T09:25:10.355276Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,No will win if they dispute correctly due to phrasing,flip,decrease,False,True,19.8642,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T05:46:55.732419Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Then the deadline end of June 30th is not relevant for this market?,increase,decrease,False,True,1778.42,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T11:32:56.186646Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Guys, where I can watch this voting proces?",hold,hold,True,True,57.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T12:10:45.171153Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,There wont be any agreement besides the official ceasefire agreement are you dumb lmao do you think yiu will see an agre,hold,increase,False,True,1925.3461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:34:59.347274Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"There is no media consensus, neither the IAEA has confirmed it, nor has Iran. All of them have talked about damage, not ",increase,increase,True,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-21T06:55:21.082624Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,I do consider the best choice for those who hold yes on aug31 market should liquidate their position before it get worse,hold,decrease,False,True,1136.1717,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T11:40:48.694187Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,New ground operations in Areas IDF hasnt stepped in so far. New displacement orders. No ceasefire till mission of displa,hold,increase,False,True,1925.3461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T03:57:00.060213Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,2. IAEA¡¯s official position: ¡°not aware of any damage at Fordow.¡± In a 20 June 2025 briefing to the UN Security Counc,increase,increase,True,True,469.8302,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-23T05:19:49.596686Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"At this point Yes people gonna throw their money away due to ""good"" tarot cards shuffle",hold,decrease,False,True,1.4997,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T21:01:10.369222Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Looks like little yes rally, waiting for the pullback",increase,decrease,False,True,2.962,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T07:25:52.925711Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No, it has consensus condition of16.1M 70%",increase,hold,False,True,2868.6832,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T21:42:36.062649Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Y side is arguing that the interview counts as an official IAEA statement, thats whats new. N side believes that to be w",decrease,hold,False,True,18565.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-02T00:57:27.245085Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,From the river to the sea palestine will be free,flip,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:26:31.408441Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""Destruction of the centrifuges at Fordow through cyberattacks with out the destruction of the facilities will not quali",decrease,hold,False,True,2753.15,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T15:01:32.226669Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,So why is there no agreement then dummy,increase,hold,False,True,5.0261,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T01:35:00.098952Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,can someone send me the uma votes link? I need to catch up with this biazzre situation,increase,hold,False,True,4.28,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:28:44.598511Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"there is 186,374.99 unrevealed votes so far",increase,hold,False,True,1952.2295,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T15:32:00.913959Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Might as well hold, if its a scam and they control UMA it would make more sense for them to dump Yes and buy No at some ",increase,decrease,False,True,3.566,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:37:29.515336Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Yes is getting cheaper. do I buy more shares and abuse the panic or do I join the panic?,increase,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T22:16:53.369956Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Guys, reports and information coming from the party responsible for the attack cannot be considered ¡°credible reporting",decrease,increase,False,True,1472.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T08:36:44.600469Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Even without the US involvement, the Israeli strike alone was enough to disable Fordow. By targeting entrances and venti",decrease,increase,False,True,22.7712,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T15:48:12.419306Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"How is this market resolved ? According to what Trump says, it looks obvious",flip,hold,False,True,5.7323,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:49:27.861219Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Iran filled the tunnels with dirt yesterday,flip,decrease,False,True,8600.8608,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T19:53:28.504216Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"cute, aenews won poly users raped by the IAEA chief and zelenskyy will never wear a suit",increase,hold,False,True,4.002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:39:24.738533Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,There is so much value here. Do you guys not understand you need irrefutable evidence in the next 2 days. The IAEA can¡¯,increase,increase,True,True,28.2768,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-06-28T13:24:53.451103Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"i would love this idea to be true, but hamas prioraty is to keep the their ideal alive soo they could keep getting resou",hold,increase,False,True,15.0446,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T20:18:11.064037Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Their stockpile was moved off site in advance of the strike and both the U.S. and Israel confirm so. The question is mor,decrease,hold,False,True,328.0957,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T09:30:43.832173Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Crying because the price didn¡¯t drop enough to buy more, then in the next post complaining why someone else is buying m",decrease,decrease,True,True,4906.9346,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:36:33.365806Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Supreme leader is the only person with an official statement confirming either side of the argument. Everyone else is ei,decrease,hold,False,True,1792.2,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-18T09:20:12.041205Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Fool you twice, shame on them, fool you thrice, I think you¡¯re into cuckolding",hold,decrease,False,True,4828.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-15T18:55:35.131724Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Hamas has eased its earlier demands, and Arab mediators plan to restart indirect talks on Saturday. Source: https://www.",increase,decrease,False,True,99.2544,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T10:57:18.227244Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Yes but you are assuming that the UMA won¡¯t consider the IAEA chiefs statement as their official stance¡­..or any other,increase,decrease,False,True,20070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T23:41:58.758828Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"bro their average cost is 99c, they are like 0.1% in profit, they can't cashout, but if someone reveal a lot of p4 or p1",hold,decrease,False,True,54.34,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T01:27:54.512125Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"https://x.com/Osint613/status/1936591889425187111 ""It appears the United States just completely obliterated Iran's top s",flip,increase,False,True,84.7283,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T16:54:37.708808Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,yes they are reusable you just lose a % of them when the side you voted on loses so they are incetivised to vote all tog,flip,hold,False,True,33.878,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:12:37.179037Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,buy just a bit to lower your avg,decrease,decrease,True,True,33.858,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T19:11:42.553633Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"There was no reactor, it was an enrichment facility, and they moved the materials out before hand.",hold,increase,False,True,14.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T04:11:55.431842Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey, I¡¯ve been on Discord for less than 10 days so I can¡¯t post yet. Could someone please help by sharing this summary",flip,hold,False,True,10495.4745,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-21T19:17:52.591872Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"""While we recognize the extent of the blackmail practiced by the occupation through committing massacres against our peo",flip,increase,False,True,13641.3726,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T11:53:18.458228Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"the thing is, even if yes get over 50% this will clearly be disputed and there will be revotes which ultimately may not ",decrease,decrease,True,True,298.55,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T17:36:16.180878Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,It¡¯s sad to see how the gigolo guy is scamming not only the shrimps but the whales too¡­,increase,hold,False,True,1129.7407,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:11:44.735893Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,A senior U.S. official acknowledged that the B-2 attack on the Fordow did not destroy the facility but severely damaged ,decrease,decrease,True,True,1321.1488,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T04:53:38.907Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Chatgpt is less reliable than Iran itself,",hold,decrease,False,True,260.9838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:40:26.739159Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey, its my first time going through final dispute. How is it going to flow? 100% yes?",flip,decrease,False,True,836.9811,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T20:23:08.024064Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"That too, like fordow being destroyed, is just pure speculation. If you don't show any concrete evidance on that calim I",decrease,increase,False,True,3.9845,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T13:27:13.169127Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,https://x.com/israelipm_heb/status/1937864267396481148 israel prime minister's office confirm the report by israeli atom,decrease,flip,False,True,59.0932,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:25:47.508891Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"While U.S. and Israeli claims suggest severe impact, Iranian statements and IAEA reports indicate no irreversible destru",increase,decrease,False,True,145.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:53:27.897419Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I won¡¯t sell any of mine, I don¡¯t want to cause panic and a huge sell off.",decrease,hold,False,True,59070.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T08:44:51.993884Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If it wasn¡¯t for these rules backing the no side, we¡¯d be toast already. Crazy luck I¡¯ll take it",increase,decrease,False,True,4715.7552,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T00:30:58.033154Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Its just an alt to comment. Even my alt has 12x more profit than you peasant,hold,hold,True,True,1925.3461,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T05:53:12.933478Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"You¡¯re lying like crazy, you seem even more scared. None of the Yes supporters are talking with proof or evidence, you¡",increase,increase,True,True,60.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T15:51:56.691154Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,So we all see a black car and a fucker with uma power makes it white just like that. Wtf is this bs?,hold,hold,True,True,4957.3074,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T03:31:56.931328Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Iran's Atomic Body said no radioactive anomalies were observed around the Fardow nuclear facility. If the operation dest,increase,increase,True,True,157.45,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T20:28:56.913884Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Humus tomorrow ""we will sacrifice every Gazan, old and young, but will carry jihad to it's completion!"" Funfzig - ""time ",flip,flip,True,True,13.0198,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T22:54:26.804287Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Take a look at the comments folks. Everyone on Yes is keeping super quiet. Why? We want the price to continue to drop so,flip,increase,False,True,218.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T20:03:41.356593Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i ate all the uranium from the fordow facility,flip,hold,False,True,151.5856,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T11:33:45.100229Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The rules state we need confirmation that the centrifuges are rendered non functional. You¡¯re probably right that they ,decrease,decrease,True,True,80.4,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:36:14.881068Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"This is going to be unknown until someone enters Fordow, if that's even possible before July.",flip,decrease,False,True,8600.8608,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T10:08:42.408929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Israel is so close to taking over full Gaza and displacing hundreds of thousands into camps as Netanyahu stated last tim,hold,increase,False,True,1925.3461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T16:04:24.012456Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I used chagpt to review comments under this market, for ur reference:",increase,hold,False,True,810.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-07T11:38:04.269056Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Doubt as he expects a ceasefire this week,decrease,decrease,True,True,551.5953,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-12T21:13:36.103427Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Lmao, if I¡¯m broke, then what are you? A total Jew broke? Go bet more",increase,hold,False,True,1728.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T14:48:58.315692Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Yes, but Iran is going to save the day for YES by revelaing it's destroyed and giving their enemies a huge propaganda b",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T22:37:16.671138Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Did yoi followed the last vote? No was at 40c when aenews user bought 5.5 mil uma and colapsed the price,hold,hold,True,True,4983.7874,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:56:03.266729Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I think he knows polymarket rules,flip,hold,False,True,664.9723,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T18:58:51.558959Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Last time Witkoff went there to announce a deal: https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-envoys-headed-to-doha-for-truce-hostag,decrease,hold,False,True,1925.3461,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:13:04.590903Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"That's just cyberattacks, the wording can be vague and UMA likes the vagueness so the whales can profit. But we will see",decrease,decrease,True,True,233.3138,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T08:21:36.276716Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"OK, aenews drip 500K last month with Pakistan issue (-99.5% loss)",flip,decrease,False,True,10718.638,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T03:05:43.725487Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I think you wanna cash out with minimal loses hahaha,decrease,decrease,True,True,599.65,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:45:33.928626Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Whoever thinks that something is left out of the fordow enrichment facility is a fucking moron,decrease,increase,False,True,825.77,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:27:48.432917Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,ground operation? are you nuts? they would all die,decrease,increase,False,True,6211.3352,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:44:16.258327Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Can someone propose? Official statement Centrifuge not operational,flip,decrease,False,True,836.9723,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:13:06.185345Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Hegseth himself said only Iran knows hahaha do you Yes people really think Iran is going to confirm this market for you ,increase,increase,True,True,26.9748,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:07:45.175213Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,you couldnt know that cus jeets are not allowed into Iran,flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-22T18:55:48.040224Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"So for this shit show: The terrorist group and a country's government, which consists of terrorists, will never agree...",hold,increase,False,True,3.56,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T15:10:00.083022Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"3 min ago nytimes:The Fordo site is said to look severely damaged but not destroyed, according to U.S. and Israeli offic",hold,decrease,False,True,6292.3352,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T10:04:00.376812Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Both Primary resolution sources indicate a NO. If the primary source says NO, credible reports wont resolve this to YES.",increase,increase,True,True,1272.3509,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-22T19:15:44.518431Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Tbh I have no sympathy for retards losing their money, you deserve this",hold,hold,True,True,4828.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-04T21:07:23.600759Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,It's wild that this was literally an instant replay of May but people fell for it again.,flip,decrease,False,True,1901.9963,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T16:13:01.781509Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Yes bro I was the second highest stake holder in that market. You need to adept, switch sides and scam newcomers. Unfort",hold,decrease,False,True,10333.9234,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:03:09.670705Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The Yessers¡¯ attitude already gives away how this market will end,increase,increase,True,True,4715.7552,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-19T07:37:23.050763Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,N12: An Israeli political source: There are many difficulties. Israel wants to exhaust the negotiation process - but Ham,flip,increase,False,True,2658.164,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T07:20:46.828756Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"According to reports there are no obstacles in the negotiation anymore, also trump administration is putting a lot of pr",decrease,increase,False,True,38.2365,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-21T11:44:31.737466Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,not moab GBU-57A/B MOP. US has very few of these. It would split the Republican party. Iran likely has enough enriched u,decrease,decrease,True,True,186.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T03:36:48.959737Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey, I¡¯ve been on Discord for less than 10 days so I can¡¯t post yet. Could someone please help by sharing this summary",flip,hold,False,True,10495.4745,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T23:06:16.345944Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Yeah, everything is fine and something something technicality, you dumb fuck, out of 23mil tokens and almost 300 people,",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T05:55:36.756116Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Did you even read the article you shared?,hold,decrease,False,True,261.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T11:28:37.021139Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Last opporunity to exit at these prices YES.,hold,decrease,False,True,1925.3461,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T15:52:43.662951Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I've had lunch, I ran 5km, took a shower, got back home... Arbguy is still talking alone in here... Feels like I never l",flip,hold,False,True,199.99,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T11:14:39.874383Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Yeah, maybe so. I only set up my Discord account two days ago, and I¡¯m avoiding chatting for security reasons",flip,hold,False,True,10734.238,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T10:14:27.268727Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,your logic is flawed. Just cos you over think something doesnt make you smart,decrease,decrease,True,True,1124.1326,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T13:48:16.990092Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the account they use once they figured out they have enough votes for P2 they sell to have a clean name to him and he ta,flip,hold,False,True,33.878,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T08:56:58.724874Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"basically it's bet scalping + insider trading + fake arbitraging, this is exact operation Polyscam and UMA run here",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T22:09:08.829731Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"They will, after tomorrow morning",decrease,increase,False,True,3.33,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-08T22:53:18.614205Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"The withdrawal of the IDF depends on Israel's will, which is being handled by Trump.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2071.21,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:26:57.138583Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,last drop so i can sell my 1 dollar no and put in some other market to make it 1000,decrease,decrease,True,True,1.1206,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T19:26:56.696141Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,They have a total of 20 ever made and they used 12 already for nothing ????,decrease,decrease,True,True,1231.9,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T18:37:58.746473Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The communication, intended to be private, included Iranian government officials speculating as to why the strikes direc",flip,decrease,False,True,33.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T12:40:33.094789Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,How many UMA tokens can we afford if all the NOs made a joint effort?,increase,hold,False,True,2.962,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T02:05:55.350048Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"My guy, you¡¯re the one cursing and yelling in every one of your comments, have some perspective for gods sake. Stop rep",decrease,hold,False,True,1773.4625,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T03:07:26.310529Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Maybe. Gambling is retarded anyways,decrease,decrease,True,True,599.65,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-07T07:18:52.983231Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Damn, those jews drive a hard bargain!",hold,hold,True,True,518.3041,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:38:17.045707Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,odds of what? rigged UMA vote?,flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T12:12:05.971639Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,So Military operations gonna continue I guess,hold,increase,False,True,0.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T11:56:08.903897Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,It is over no holders thanks for the easy money ??,hold,increase,False,True,95.69,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T00:41:28.954855Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"4 B2s with 8 MOPs a coordinated salvo, with possible partial deeper penetration, but it is very unlikely that the entire",increase,decrease,False,True,432.29,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T06:04:24.954065Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,NO holders are so confident. But they dare not buy shares above 30,decrease,decrease,True,True,561.2426,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T17:58:51.576032Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,thanks for the cheap no shares weak hands,increase,increase,True,True,238.2705,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T03:18:56.409932Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Exciting update; Qatar says Gaza ceasefire talks in Doha 'ongoing, no timeframe'",flip,hold,False,True,589.5018,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T16:39:16.529716Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Theres no way the facility is functional right now, so this market will resolve to yes.",hold,increase,False,True,268.984,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-21T17:28:26.287976Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"That is a bad thing to want guys do NOT want this, it's VERY dangerous. Fat girls are notoriously HUNGRY with SHARP teet",flip,hold,False,True,329.7982,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T15:19:41.842595Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Man you have a 150k loss. what reputation?,flip,decrease,False,True,199.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T06:28:42.038828Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,So the Bloomberg and cnn reports the no side are throwing out admit the centrifuges are inoperable. When something is ¡,decrease,decrease,True,True,240.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:44:27.025079Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"alphax, I'd trust you with my first new born",hold,hold,True,True,54.61,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T18:57:53.361441Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,What are you yapping all these points are key points and the aid issue hasnt been resolved just like the other key point,hold,increase,False,True,1925.3461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T00:09:37.527923Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Those B2 bombers are no joke, Fordow is as good as gone. Dang Im selling my No shares",flip,flip,True,True,75.9025,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:47:01.091764Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,It's not Grossy. It's official statement from IAEA,flip,hold,False,True,836.9723,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T21:50:40.690281Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Brb, kind kings and queens, gotta make lunch smuchies XOXOXO",hold,hold,True,True,1236.1407,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-24T15:29:26.640534Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,Grab some Yes and enjoy the profits bro,decrease,flip,False,True,814.58,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T14:28:28.950758Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It¡¯s funny how some people, when they run out of arguments, resort to childish insults this behavior just shows despera",increase,increase,True,True,60.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:55:26.611126Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It does NOT matter if we all believe is destroyed, as long it does not come a confirmation from IAEA, Iran or Credible r",flip,increase,False,True,1472.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:45:55.441466Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"final dispute in 28 mins, does that mean if somebody doesnt dispute it resolves to yes?",hold,decrease,False,True,1147.79,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T04:14:45.809518Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"destroyed¡± means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional, either thr",flip,hold,False,True,10495.4745,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:12:43.942493Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"wait, am i seeing this right? on UMA it says 100.1% Total tokens that revealed, how is that possible? LOL",increase,hold,False,True,2085.9595,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T22:12:50.095137Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"PM support just told me that they¡¯re investigating into this market and resolve could possibly be reverted, STAY STRONG",hold,hold,True,True,54.34,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:23:51.880171Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,you're right man. I'm gonna sell my Yes at 50 and switch to No,flip,flip,True,True,199.99,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:53:56.942746Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,fell for it again award MAGApeeds,decrease,decrease,True,True,16372.2944,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T13:55:45.411334Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Yeah, also I am not sure, whether Netanyahu and Hamas will agree on the terms anytime soon. Israel wants the whole of Ga",flip,decrease,False,True,500.9898,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:44:59.250776Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"and? i prefer not losing money, if you want you can just give me your at least its more efficient",decrease,decrease,True,True,9.4,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:09:34.275588Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,So ypu got UMA on API? Now P2 got 70%,increase,hold,False,True,6387.8211,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:15:59.033556Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"USA and IDF lie about literally everything, lol at anyone believing this will resolve to yes",decrease,increase,False,True,1792.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-14T15:22:19.370978Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"At first it was this week, then next week, now its ""Fairly Soon""",hold,decrease,False,True,40.4386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-19T14:23:38.570176Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"The latest attacks come as US, Qatar-led ceasefire efforts between Israel and Hamas appear to stall due to disagreements",hold,increase,False,True,1925.3461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:29:22.161454Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Israel didn't count before, won't count now. Their word is worthless.",hold,increase,False,True,75.8783,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:42:00.576461Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,What's the process of final dispute? Can I redeem my money in an hour and half?,flip,decrease,False,True,836.9811,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T21:54:25.038825Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Why not FSH ¡°Yes¡± right now? The liquidity is deep enough¡­,increase,flip,False,True,2184.37,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T10:14:28.025148Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"If all the Hostages die, do you think he will survive?",flip,decrease,False,True,9486.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T10:51:53.445022Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Man I sold at 72 thinking it will go down -_-,flip,decrease,False,True,14.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T06:29:57.079304Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Thank you for helping the yes vote!!!,decrease,increase,False,True,240.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T16:34:42.237335Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"the thing is you need proof and that wont happen in a week yk, if the deadline was longer i would be on your side",increase,decrease,False,True,73.031,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T05:26:11.568108Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I'm going to be purchasing a new watch with my winnings,increase,increase,True,True,173.7095,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T22:50:11.636495Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"As expected. Israel only wants their terms. Doesnt want hamas to have aid, doesnt want to withdraw from Gaza, doesnt wan",hold,increase,False,True,0.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T00:22:33.916341Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Lol. DOD is not a credible reporting.,hold,hold,True,True,1472.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T09:13:17.455047Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,hilarious that it did not resolve to YES yet lol. you waiting for the ayatollah to confirm? ??,increase,increase,True,True,2442.96,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T13:55:17.578518Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"At least AENEWS2 isn¡¯t spreading disinformation. He just manipulate the market by buying or selling, and it¡¯s up to yo",flip,hold,False,True,373.5899,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T14:42:39.174783Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,why should No be at 70 in 2-3 Days? you dont believe that yourself right?,flip,decrease,False,True,9486.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-08-10T05:31:09.702762Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"""An Israeli official involved in the negotiations was quoted by Axios as saying that 'the gap between Israel and Hamas r",increase,decrease,False,True,16.075,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-28T19:45:59.123007Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"If I were a socially free person, I would have been a trans woman or a cross dresser, but as a refugee three times over ",hold,hold,True,True,1224.39,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T05:19:56.743432Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,yep the rest of the yes results should be over 73% if it whats to resolve to yes,decrease,hold,False,True,2675.0054,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T11:41:53.556339Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"suit-like suits, but not suits",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T18:52:56.633413Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,cashed out a little bit of profit in case whales scam us,increase,decrease,False,True,186.2092,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:06:50.144342Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,im only using this for shits and giggles but now i know polymarket is awful for finding the truth,hold,decrease,False,True,19.91,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:50:58.149807Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,hes in the denial stage of grieving. please leave him alone at this trying time.,decrease,decrease,True,True,16372.2944,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:56:09.316118Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Sold everything i had to buy all the NO i could,hold,increase,False,True,22.142,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T01:11:53.392545Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,havent you read the last sentence? If US reports say it has been written of the table that will lead to credible reporti,hold,increase,False,True,45.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:26:26.081919Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"UMA clearly states that 16.1M tokens must be voted on one side to be counted, its impossible now, if this resolve as NO,",increase,decrease,False,True,1952.2295,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-18T14:59:28.193783Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"""with some reservations"". Total bs over and over again. No ceasefire until TOTAL annihilation of hamas. DJT.",increase,increase,True,True,72.8155,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T10:51:25.874393Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,What are you hoping for? The US has no new data to resolve this market,decrease,hold,False,True,102.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T15:38:36.816554Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,All the buyers will lose their money the opposite of Fordow.,increase,increase,True,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-06-27T18:43:52.048836Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,It's the truth though. Ask anyone who lives here. Most wars don't happen in the winter either because it's too cold and ,hold,hold,True,True,144.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-07T20:36:30.927294Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"For the first time since the war began, Bibi put the goal of returning the hostages before the goal of complete victory,",increase,increase,True,True,2266.5188,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T07:48:20.047965Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"People forgetting that's Car is one of Yes holders, keep it under consideration",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T05:05:47.316787Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,24% vote Revealed P4 is winning Early request 56.22% Yes43.78% --- meaning the destruction isn¡¯t confirmed yet and we¡,increase,increase,True,True,1871.3906,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T15:49:41.487864Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Even Israelis officials said this yesterday.,flip,decrease,False,True,1472.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T20:48:10.146Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,We should do arbitration between the two markets,increase,hold,False,True,2.962,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T07:16:35.929642Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,knure either got banned or deleted his account. all of his comments are gone,hold,hold,True,True,1147.79,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-21T20:16:15.702904Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,60 dayzzzzzzzzzzzzzz of smokeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee,hold,increase,False,True,1224.39,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T13:47:03.990329Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,An Iranian spokesperson admitted it had been destroyed. What else does this market need to resolve to yes?,decrease,decrease,True,True,64.8803,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T06:08:34.271222Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"yes holders will vote in dispute, they hold majority of tokens(votes) and don't care for reality, only care about scammi",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-29T13:07:15.047485Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"Human minds are very interesting. We keep forgetting or adjusting to new realities very quickly. For example, right now ",hold,hold,True,True,1224.39,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-27T11:00:59.234924Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Saudi Report: Hamas Expresses Willingness to Show Flexibility in Negotiations The Saudi TV channel ""Al-Hadath"" reported,",hold,decrease,False,True,85.9114,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T00:06:59.269483Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"tHis is My ALt AcCoUnT, I hAVe 700 ShARes oN my OThEr AcCoUNt",flip,hold,False,True,475.0557,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T20:37:16.277314Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I never do. He gave a good summary of my case for ¡°yes¡± is all.,increase,hold,False,True,685.63,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T03:17:24.456738Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Read the rules:We need confirmation of destruction = non operational. There is no way to know it,decrease,decrease,True,True,1472.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T08:11:37.530411Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I mean why do you think they proposed for a resolution before the deadline? Because it was a bit easier to prove the poi,decrease,hold,False,True,544.1762,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T08:29:59.234701Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Bro sold the bottom typing lol,hold,decrease,False,True,1925.3461,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:44:04.251813Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The primary resolution source will be official confirmation from Iran or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) c,decrease,hold,False,True,1250.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T22:08:45.851737Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"your source of info, is a guy on twitter? xd",increase,decrease,False,True,344.449,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T07:34:50.526958Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It's not me, but according to the rules, US official confirmation is excluded as a source.",decrease,decrease,True,True,26169.9768,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:52:17.851576Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Unreal edging tho idk how i haven¡¯t given up yet,increase,decrease,False,True,112.6264,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:16:38.700992Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Actually feel so bad for arbguy. Bro fell into car scam twice,increase,hold,False,True,38.6568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T06:28:57.832096Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Without IAEA confirming, why would the left-wing media give Trump the W?",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T22:38:37.796333Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Thanks for the free money I guess,hold,increase,False,True,29388.66,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T08:36:18.766158Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey guys, scammed by UMA and polyscam out of your hard earned social security payouts? there is a way! join our anti-UMA",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-04T00:21:16.237988Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Shiiid I am faster than Barak Ravid and more reliable than BBC,hold,increase,False,True,99.7804,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-17T11:13:56.171729Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,you 100% wrote this with chatgpt,increase,hold,False,True,7626.2551,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-31T16:06:22.891166Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Senior Israeli official: It's not ""yes, but"" it's ""no, but change the proposal and we might talk.""",decrease,flip,False,True,7141.1407,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T03:39:23.699783Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No one cares about any of that btw. IAEA head says ""we already know that, given the power of those weapons and the techn",flip,increase,False,True,755.36,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T20:35:15.046871Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,@DeepestState GET OF YOUR FUCKING POSITION NOW,increase,decrease,False,True,5.362,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:09:26.480785Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Total tokens that committed 23,224,547.98 Total tokens that revealed 23,245,677.42 - WHAT",hold,hold,True,True,731.521,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T22:23:35.153537Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Not verified for one. Also, that's just saying Israel expects, nothing about Hamas having a 24 hour intention or deadlin",decrease,decrease,True,True,12089.3795,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..561909a62b6086060f349838b8ca3fb8dc3d490d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +552650,2025-06-30T22:01:00.311341Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Grok : ""No"" at this moment, as the primary resolution source (official confirmation) has not been met and the deadline i",increase,hold,False,True,43.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T20:25:28.260652Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Also consider this: the IAEA have suffered some serious reputation damage over this whole Middle East craziness and thei,increase,increase,True,True,746.6295,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T08:05:33.982985Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I'm not sure the big holders will necessarily keep their position next time. They will choose to switch if they'll think,flip,decrease,False,True,544.1762,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T20:33:12.389078Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"agreed, CIA is as credible as Trump.",hold,hold,True,True,112.19,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-19T18:08:20.329945Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Bibi is doing to the Palestinians what that despot once did to the Jews¡­,hold,decrease,False,True,18.0107,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T11:46:10.066162Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike."" guess 12 30K lb bombs don't qualify as a targeted s",decrease,decrease,True,True,378.0702,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T14:29:01.359307Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Definitely not lol you know that yourself.,flip,increase,False,True,9486.6298,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:30:03.266133Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Now we just need Iran to do some Propaganda like ""the damage they did was like a bug"" and Yes will crash to the Ground. ",decrease,hold,False,True,2249.3527,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T19:17:11.889037Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,we have 8 days to get the news it is destroyed because it is everyone here just talk nonsense,hold,decrease,False,True,45.1,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-12T18:56:49.598708Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Tho buy more, might get a chance to increase my position",increase,increase,True,True,1728.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:34.363178Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the vote is clearly heading to p4,flip,hold,False,True,9.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:35:07.947513Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,omg he didnt want to use the world obliterate,hold,hold,True,True,1147.79,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T06:28:51.638733Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Centrifuges are so viabration sensitive you cannot play loud music near them,increase,hold,False,True,20070.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T04:53:31.747386Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"it won't default to no, thats not how UMA resolution works retardd",hold,hold,True,True,268.984,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T12:57:42.296847Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,it needs to be offical statement read the rules,hold,hold,True,True,90.521,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T00:48:29.191545Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,What percent of votes is needed for yes to win,hold,hold,True,True,178.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T03:56:19.496914Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Why a ¡°Yes¡± resolution remains very hard to achieve Key hurdle Current evidence Why it keeps the market from resolvin,increase,increase,True,True,469.8302,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-15T20:01:54.582127Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Times of Israel reported that Hamas negotiators in Cairo signaled a willingness to ease some of the demands that collaps,hold,increase,False,True,1136.1671,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-21T20:03:30.983166Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Netanyahu be like after Hamas just rejected the ceasefire: ""oh no... Anyways""",flip,increase,False,True,13641.3726,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T01:27:38.370614Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,yes share holders it is time to sell,increase,decrease,False,True,4973.109,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T20:28:14.170223Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Can some of the YESTARDS fill my order at 29c? Please? Thank you,increase,hold,False,True,770.4412,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T18:35:59.133681Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Have you read the rules? Seems like you havn't. We don't need IRAN to confirm for a YES,increase,increase,True,True,206.4524,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T07:09:15.993462Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,It's not the platform you should blame but yourself for betting on market with such a semantic resolve mechanism. Those ,decrease,decrease,True,True,97.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T10:19:22.097607Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"What if the IAEA issues a report based on Israeli information / evidence, assessing that the site has been rendered non-",decrease,decrease,True,True,94.9,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T20:29:24.433673Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,We will loose with honor if we have to. All no holders should hold to the end.,increase,increase,True,True,2.962,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:47:32.044265Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,No boys thought they were going to get a cheap win because of the logistics involved in confirming destruction. Iran ha,increase,increase,True,True,1675.6616,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T14:46:42.651737Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I just seen the video with Zelensky wearing a suit 4 days ago even if UMA resolved that market with NO : https://youtu.b,increase,hold,False,True,41.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T19:44:48.164604Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The reveal phase of uma is automated in a random or order of voting manner, right? is not like a voter can reveal his vo",decrease,hold,False,True,5.362,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:15:35.858752Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Netanyahu did suggest a ground operation at Fordow. This could be it,decrease,increase,False,True,8600.8608,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T20:52:05.850866Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Also it already resolved yes once¡­. Why do you think that was? It¡¯s just being disputed. But the decider already resol,increase,hold,False,True,920.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T04:26:18.254312Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,sooo you're saying we need evidence to confirm it? Dumbass?? I will crush you.,flip,increase,False,True,188.3783,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:40:18.094286Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"UMA turned off it on their web, but other sites like betmoar.fun have it operational",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-08-20T04:53:27.208943Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,@slight- you just blow in from stupid town or something?,hold,hold,True,True,432.152,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-18T15:25:16.092794Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Props to the boys in the comments that worded it as if Israel proposed the ceasefire and then sold their yes on the pani,increase,hold,False,True,1550.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T16:22:22.238366Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,I will if the price be lower then now,increase,decrease,False,True,154.8538,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:57:42.101109Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Why did i sold my shares at 14c,decrease,decrease,True,True,35.0022,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-21T17:35:54.036739Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Steve Bannon confirming with sources that the party is on this weekend,decrease,increase,False,True,357.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T16:04:13.606623Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,so they need more time to pressure Hamas into accepting Israels demands. Will this be done in 10 Days? I doubt it,decrease,increase,False,True,19765.1823,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T22:20:26.265754Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Given all the circumstances, Polymarket will have to void this market",increase,decrease,False,True,40.6363,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T05:09:13.903842Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,guess trump is gonna be big chillin in the middle east,hold,hold,True,True,42.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T17:46:47.068576Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,For those of you who joined us recently: both sides are trying to interpret the rules of this market to their liking. of,flip,decrease,False,True,199.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T01:05:05.060307Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Car doesn¡¯t care about the resolution just wants to see .9 and dump on all of you yes holders,increase,increase,True,True,33.0768,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T18:30:22.085889Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,just gonna give away 45k usd to you?,flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:02:52.431385Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Primary resolution sources saying not destroyed. Why do you think they called PRIMARY sources? Also, even the US said th",decrease,decrease,True,True,1719.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T12:54:46.200359Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The rules say you need confirmation from Iran or IAEA, Israel already claimed before that they destroyed Fordo",hold,hold,True,True,3611.07,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-24T02:21:36.964405Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"We (Hamas) want: ""the full reopening of the Rafah crossing into Egypt to allow for family reunification and the return o",decrease,hold,False,True,772.763,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T14:25:12.947146Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"vote,make your illusions facts with Polymarket",hold,hold,True,True,13.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:52:19.657937Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I love how you are all pumping no to sell it,flip,decrease,False,True,22.8608,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T23:56:04.889486Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"no, if official IAEA channels had been used, this market would be resolved. but they were not used. we instead got an un",flip,hold,False,True,18565.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T06:32:46.851414Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Imagine Netanyahu making a ceasefire so close before his goals of displacing hundreds of thousands. Imagine Bibi making ,increase,increase,True,True,5.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T00:39:27.353792Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"we are literally in the same tg group, relax",decrease,hold,False,True,2132.54,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:40:01.837379Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"that is why i baught no after the article released and yes skyrocketet, then i learned it is up to UMA and whales to dec",hold,decrease,False,True,1147.79,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T23:01:47.705194Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,yeah i know we need moer whales to flip NO next vote we need info that shows what the chief said is beeing taken out of ,flip,decrease,False,True,33.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T19:29:58.261564Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"read how the thing is pharased again ""For the purposes of this market, ¡°destroyed¡± means that the underground enrichme",decrease,hold,False,True,22.21,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T16:15:13.613593Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Fellow anarcho-capitalists, i suggest you to join the market - https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-close-the-strait-o",decrease,hold,False,True,536.5786,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T22:30:02.899147Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Remember when you're dad beat you because you were retarded?,decrease,hold,False,True,268.984,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T19:51:39.713737Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Satellite imagery of Fordow from June 22 shows six probable entry-point craters on top of a ridge above the underground ,increase,decrease,False,True,231.5838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:02:16.620536Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I don¡¯t get how this platform is even popular. I wanted to give it a try, and the first market I saw was this. Honestly",increase,decrease,False,True,1737.5595,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T21:35:22.442227Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,arb guy you better hope you were right to switch,hold,decrease,False,True,1886.0723,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T02:15:59.994055Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,ah yes lets listen to a retarded CNN host over the General of the IAEA,flip,hold,False,True,199.67,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:38:57.644749Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hi everyone, let's not get emotional about this. Honestly, I think it¡¯s likely to be resolved as ""Yes."" However, let's ",hold,flip,False,True,29626.0326,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T14:28:28.950758Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It¡¯s funny how some people, when they run out of arguments, resort to childish insults this behavior just shows despera",increase,increase,True,True,60.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:15:04.670218Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Hmm. Iran claims the centrifuges are under a mountain. If thats true theres a 5% or less chance they were physically des,increase,increase,True,True,48.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:11:14.157081Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"the price doesn¡¯t factor in a revote, confused",flip,decrease,False,True,10330.034,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T10:14:28.025148Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"If all the Hostages die, do you think he will survive?",flip,decrease,False,True,3903.9318,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-08-04T00:01:51.318566Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,Funzfiz going from $438k to negative pnl territory over 5 weeks will be the 3rd wildest thing I've seen on PM. The Ukrai,decrease,hold,False,True,802.7744,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-19T21:16:40.870767Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,no because it has to be an agreement between Israel and Hamas obviously,flip,hold,False,True,2986.4212,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T13:00:39.300036Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Are you really this ignorant that you can¡¯t tell the difference between total destruction and mere damage?,increase,increase,True,True,60.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-05T08:26:14.616223Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Imagine thinking US would offer war guarantees to a terrorist group, lol",hold,increase,False,True,27245.87,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T12:06:14.035791Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Even without the US involvement, the Israeli strike alone was enough to disable Fordow. By targeting entrances and venti",decrease,increase,False,True,22.7712,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T06:37:40.690058Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,If the vents are required by the centrifuges facility to function¡­. Would that mean the centrifuge facility is rendered,increase,hold,False,True,20070.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T01:20:18.494555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,reports stating 6x bunker busters used against the one target. Plus 30 other munitions.,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T20:19:25.760847Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,?????????? charles had the fucking leg man he had that shit,flip,hold,False,True,9.55,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-26T23:04:45.102453Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,It's like Bibi read the rules for this market,hold,increase,False,True,802.7744,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:41:21.681131Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i dont know why you believe all the US haters. Nobody knows the damge inside fordow.,decrease,hold,False,True,1002.8986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T11:36:25.763767Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I¡¯m no expert, but AI says the only way to be certain is through an inspection and for obvious reasons, that¡¯s impossi",decrease,decrease,True,True,4715.7552,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:23:34.535093Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"so much cope. The US got involved exclusively to destroy Fordow. If somehow they didnt on their first shot, they will go",decrease,increase,False,True,1124.1326,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T00:01:15.013031Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"were they? then is the ""we cannot say for sure"" part also part of IAEAs official confirmation of fordows destruction?",flip,decrease,False,True,18565.4592,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:39:06.370389Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,at the end of the day the only credible source is Khamenei and he said everything is fine. this will resolve to no - htt,decrease,increase,False,True,1792.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:23:14.123524Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,vote is going p4 which means yes is going to lose this one,flip,hold,False,True,9.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T14:07:18.273233Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This is very simple. The facility is very likely destroyed by the definition set it the rules. No holders are trying to ,increase,increase,True,True,536.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T01:56:50.079001Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,damage to the centrifuges is irrelevant. this market is clearly about the nuclear facility itself. there is no new infor,flip,hold,False,True,18565.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T01:08:29.005928Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Its not about centrifuges, but the facilities housing",decrease,hold,False,True,1703.83,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T11:46:24.732474Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This market is nuts. We can all see before our very eyes the before and after satellite images with concrete dust settle,hold,increase,False,True,936.74,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T00:06:59.540258Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,A 33k token holder not voting doesn't change anything,hold,hold,True,True,0.2656,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-08-18T14:57:43.742419Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,If Israel agrees to the ceasefire that dosen't mean a end to the war. Israel and hamas will use this as a moment to regr,hold,increase,False,True,73.5637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:42:44.075058Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,To think that IAEA will make an official confirmation of the status of a safeguarded facility without site assessment is,increase,increase,True,True,6958.0144,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T08:11:37.530411Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I mean why do you think they proposed for a resolution before the deadline? Because it was a bit easier to prove the poi,flip,hold,False,True,544.1762,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-21T18:52:01.887582Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"Aki, how does life feel knowing you directly stole 60k from Denizz?",hold,hold,True,True,1224.39,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-08T21:46:02.351838Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I wonder what BIBI meant when he said ""broader peace"" Right?? right?? maybe relocation of Gazans + elimination of Hamas?",increase,decrease,False,True,101.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:18:09.288096Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,but honestly this bet was always in a gray area,decrease,decrease,True,True,19.8742,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T11:10:07.453067Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I'm from Israel and deeply attuned to the local political landscape. From what I'm seeing on the ground, there's a real ",flip,increase,False,True,257.966,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T23:23:21.231785Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Centrifuges are very vibration-sensitive. They would not even need to get directly hit to become ""non-functional"". Now i",hold,increase,False,True,533.29,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:18:53.155948Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,you see they are btches now you got stuck at high yes for 20K votes,flip,decrease,False,True,33.858,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T18:36:57.763476Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,and how is USA or Israel gonna confirm it you dipshit LOL Iran will never confirm that hence the fact this is easy NO,decrease,increase,False,True,94.87,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-04T21:07:23.600759Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,It's wild that this was literally an instant replay of May but people fell for it again.,flip,decrease,False,True,1901.9963,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T12:39:39.910393Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"slowly, but it will be 95% P2, they are chickening out on trying to dab on us with exact 16.1M votes like they tried to ",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-07T19:58:30.748439Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"At first, I was told that the ceasefire would happen on Friday then it was Monday, when Bibi and Trump were supposed to ",hold,decrease,False,True,1075.4512,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:26:24.510127Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I've invested 200 usd man not 60k. Not sure who's coping between the two of us. And at this price I've already made prof,flip,decrease,False,True,199.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T10:46:06.676086Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Depends if your going short or long,decrease,decrease,True,True,2768.65,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T18:27:19.640639Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""Tusi Gabbard = unreliable. Needs to be from Iran. Born and raised""",flip,decrease,False,True,199.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-03T19:53:25.568279Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Haha no ceasefire. No way Israel is accepting Hamas have a role in any country in the future. Ceasefire is basically use,decrease,increase,False,True,51.9544,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T03:33:45.198887Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"1. the IAEA has very explicit procedures as to what counts as an ""official confirmation"", they are a regulated entity wi",flip,increase,False,True,18565.4592,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T20:29:24.378538Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro get out of that position ASAP like the other guy said if you are not in on it. they could make it P4 last second to ,decrease,decrease,True,True,1180.22,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:02:33.349829Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"you can literally count them to the .01 point at https://vote.uma.xyz/ by their system there should be revote, but we al",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T07:04:25.814269Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""The assessment also noted that underground sections of the sites, where Iran's most sensitive work is done, were largel",decrease,increase,False,True,122.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T20:17:45.720874Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I can tell you that the bombs were not targeting the above ground facility¡¯s lol,increase,decrease,False,True,20070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:58:13.648702Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Any yesers that have taken profit, are in the loss",decrease,decrease,True,True,5.362,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-24T11:49:59.234795Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,crazy market look at that volume,hold,hold,True,True,168.27,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T20:23:16.372487Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"why tf you still holding? if you are not part of UMA cohort, i would get the fuck off from your position ASAP, it can ve",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",decrease,decrease,True,True,386.048,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-07T12:01:27.318054Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Ben Gvir: We must not agree to this deal, but we are a minority in the coalition. I can't stop this move. Lol No holders",hold,increase,False,True,6568.9153,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-12T18:56:26.788679Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Man, I wouldn¡¯t call other retards when you bet on the same thing and lose for months",hold,decrease,False,True,38929.66,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:32:30.147788Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,destroy that nuclear facility for me 5,decrease,hold,False,True,146.035,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:29:00.636337Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why else would they not reveal this?,decrease,decrease,True,True,5.0128,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T04:18:51.773792Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I would but I'm not in Discord so I will have the same problem as yourself,increase,hold,False,True,3396.7168,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T05:39:12.248736Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"looks like it, at the moment neither side appear to gather the 65%",flip,hold,False,True,544.1762,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:10:00.173424Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If the centrifuges are non operational but the facility remains intact, does it resolve to yes or no?",decrease,decrease,True,True,233.3138,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T09:30:34.512483Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"#BREAKING IAEA Director Grossi told CBS News that Iran could resume uranium enrichment within months, despite recent U.S",increase,decrease,False,True,7.8,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T16:24:03.647576Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Won't hurt to let polymarket know if you'll be using them again, and why or why not. hello at polymarket dot com",hold,hold,True,True,14.86,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T09:02:53.848467Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No kinda underappreciated here, i dunno why, it should be around 65% at very least, what's happening with this market, l",flip,increase,False,True,2500.0002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T11:33:45.100229Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The rules state we need confirmation that the centrifuges are rendered non functional. You¡¯re probably right that they ,flip,decrease,False,True,80.4,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T00:32:55.351705Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"pay attention to the market rules, this military theater was not to destroy Fordow YET",flip,hold,False,True,9020.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T05:55:36.756116Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Did you even read the article you shared?,flip,decrease,False,True,261.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:47:48.032315Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The Ukraine Mineral Market, that bitch Borntoolate threw in 5 million votes to steal all the money. Now they¡¯ve changed",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-20T21:14:49.489841Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Well Smotrich vows to resign if Netanyahu OKs Gaza truce,decrease,decrease,True,True,1435.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-19T17:05:00.053053Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,gg to whoever bought the 73cents shares,hold,hold,True,True,2986.4212,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T17:48:13.970763Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Did anyone send some hints to CoffeZilla about what manipulations are done here? I'm sure an investigation on polymarket,flip,hold,False,True,578.1363,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T15:13:26.527361Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Don¡¯t worry. Even if some wealthy participants try to manipulate the vote on UMA, the rules written on the Polymarket m",hold,hold,True,True,150.08,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T05:24:32.842325Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The radioactive material they use is in the form of a gas and its heavier than air, so it won't escape the collasped und",increase,decrease,False,True,166.5095,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-20T13:22:31.065702Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"And, me and Denizz have long history of our own beef, leave us alone bitch",hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:09:34.275588Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,So ypu got UMA on API? Now P2 got 70%,flip,hold,False,True,6387.8211,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T17:33:28.044112Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,no need to be destroyed just not functional,hold,decrease,False,True,45.1,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T12:01:15.469019Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Why is Israeli Reporting not credible?,decrease,decrease,True,True,90.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:11:37.417219Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the vote is going p4 there wont be enough votes for yes and p4 is at 99% with 52% of the vote revealed,flip,increase,False,True,9.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T14:54:00.624848Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Read the rules closer. ¡°Wide Consensus¡±.,increase,decrease,False,True,900.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:11:01.754772Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Are any NO holders planning to top their if it drops positions below 4c,decrease,increase,False,True,5.362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T19:09:37.318381Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,no more cash perhaps? Then they'll just move a bit lower and buy again,flip,decrease,False,True,578.1363,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-21T08:46:30.867151Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,All that work from deeznuts not even doing that much damage lmao,hold,increase,False,True,4828.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-22T05:57:05.257705Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Check the sheer frustration of Yes whales throwing money and clinging to this falling knife meanwhile No whales didn¡¯t ,hold,increase,False,True,4828.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:16:19.565551Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,https://x.com/SuppressedNws/status/1938237352951914568 Ali Khamenei has said IT WORKS and the only thing damaged is THE ,increase,increase,True,True,608.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-31T00:11:20.408762Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Hamas likewise only has the hostages left, they're never gonna agree to give them up, whilst Israel holds steadfast on t",hold,decrease,False,True,2770.0937,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T08:36:44.600469Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Even without the US involvement, the Israeli strike alone was enough to disable Fordow. By targeting entrances and venti",decrease,increase,False,True,22.7712,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T11:37:53.248894Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,you think it's coincidence that biggest UMA tokens holders that casted a vote will be revealed later than rest and in on,flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T19:00:11.193644Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I will tell you what will happen guys, this mfer scammers will dispute, get the price of YES as max as they can, then du",flip,decrease,False,True,422.9804,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-06-25T10:44:58.081994Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Israeli sources involved in negotiations report ""No progress on either side"" https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/skgqbhy",increase,increase,True,True,17.976,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T17:00:13.230847Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Wait tf u did sell at 70 tf why did u do that though,decrease,decrease,True,True,14.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-18T14:42:39.174783Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,why should No be at 70 in 2-3 Days? you dont believe that yourself right?,flip,decrease,False,True,9486.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T22:08:11.735281Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,BI is not a credible news source,hold,decrease,False,True,478.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T12:52:03.270876Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Nope you are super wrong. There is not any agreement on troop withdrawal, aid flor or prisoners. Imagine falling for the",increase,increase,True,True,5.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,increase,increase,True,True,101.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T11:35:03.385466Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,this has happened many times before and will happen again. UMA votes against common sense nearly every time there¡¯s a d,hold,hold,True,True,3.7,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T16:03:13.835131Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,everyone buying yes is chasing hype no proof fordow¡¯s underground centrifuge halls are destroyed no confirmation from i,increase,increase,True,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-20T19:00:22.076529Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,No reason for peace at this point. Israel is already hated so why not just go in and take out Hamas once and for all,flip,increase,False,True,624.6285,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T15:01:14.494782Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Is there a way this just resolves or do we really have to wait the 2 days?,increase,decrease,False,True,20070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T03:49:36.701014Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No guys will lose its sad but there is nothing we can do. Polymarket wont clarify and this will resolve based on the ""ri",hold,decrease,False,True,2.39,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T03:42:48.601932Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"destroyed¡± means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional, either thr",flip,hold,False,True,10495.4745,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T05:27:21.159901Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,change that to red rises too ????????,decrease,decrease,True,True,2675.0054,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T11:50:21.236801Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Do you think rest of commit was P4! Think!,flip,decrease,False,True,4854.2135,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T10:44:09.587366Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i believe the rules that says confirmation needs to be from iran or iaea,hold,hold,True,True,90.521,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T12:41:41.332405Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"This is either ""No"" or P4, they havent verified that these have been destroyed and the market cant revert to ""Yes"" until",increase,hold,False,True,176.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T16:15:25.512515Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I guarantee you, nobody will care unfortunately. I've been where you're right now, with a lot more obvious scammed marke",hold,decrease,False,True,10333.9234,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T19:37:27.512586Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Prepping up hostages for a release ?????? As if there is any agreement or resolved points in the talks. Dumb little boy,hold,increase,False,True,0.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T09:25:12.539491Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"After loud claims of US and Israel failed attacks and ""glorious"" retaliation strikes on empty US bases in Qatar, admitti",decrease,increase,False,True,2987.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T16:01:57.329631Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,¡°Director General Grossi noted that this 48-nation network would have detected an important radioactive release from an,increase,increase,True,True,38.6568,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:06.202435Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,lower high and lower low on the chart lmao - sign of weakness,decrease,decrease,True,True,1792.2,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T13:10:27.368639Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Aight, seems like they don't want to resolve with the White House declaration and it seems that IAEA cooperation with Ir",increase,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T02:42:54.694082Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Denizz is emotionally attached to this market ) he keeeeeeeeeeeeps looooooooosin,increase,decrease,False,True,916.8407,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T13:57:55.727636Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Araqchi¡¯s claim that the damage to Iran¡¯s nuclear facility was serious appears to be a psychological operation aimed a,hold,increase,False,True,130.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-09T13:46:29.636966Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Israel is striking against the negotiation delegation. It's over for yes holders.,hold,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T17:19:30.052038Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Before you click on the YES button, check this out https://www.youtube.com/shorts/b9eEqK0PWuM",increase,flip,False,True,1065.8407,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T19:47:57.996298Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Why are yes and no no longer opposites ?!?,increase,hold,False,True,8.7,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T12:10:39.148444Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Also, the rules say ""destroyed means that the underground enrichment facilities are rendered non-functional""",flip,hold,False,True,199.99,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T20:48:09.866007Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Why do you still hold such a large no position if you don¡¯t believe in it?,increase,decrease,False,True,20070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T23:53:14.125141Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Logic and facts tell us that penetrating Fordo was impossible to achieve with such a small number of bombs, and even mor",decrease,hold,False,True,499.1528,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-29T18:07:00.975172Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Fister got KOed by this woke Romanian Dan,hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:08:11.127184Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I told you so retard. Suck my cock retard. You lost retard. AHAHAHAHAH,hold,increase,False,True,268.984,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T07:24:31.872939Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,That's not actually his goal though,decrease,decrease,True,True,38.2365,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-05T20:20:19.324286Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"why did you sell? it was an easy win, you can buy the one that they wont make peace till 31st of august, ez win",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-26T23:02:55.208818Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Lol this just dropped to a 1% chance by Aug 15,flip,flip,True,True,57.407,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:17:14.683494Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"With UMA - ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE, I LITERALLY CALLED IT LMAO",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T20:09:25.257232Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"JRJS, i did not see you chicken out, well rip",increase,decrease,False,True,1236.1407,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T02:41:50.255461Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"it will be interesting if it doesn't reach consensus, again. Otherwise that was it.",flip,hold,False,True,580.7363,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:41:21.681131Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i dont know why you believe all the US haters. Nobody knows the damge inside fordow.,decrease,hold,False,True,1002.8986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T16:37:22.325279Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Take screenshots of aenews in discord if anyone has them. Collect the evidence. If they rinse us, we rinse them.",hold,increase,False,True,4670.0468,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T14:33:16.569603Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Yes needs 4.38M out of the remaining 5.51M tokens to reach 65% consensus. Will be close. Good luck everyone,increase,hold,False,True,8358.0144,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:16:08.910075Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"What we saw on the pictures corresponds more or less to the enrichment hall, that¡¯s what¡¯s been hit. That's a speculat",decrease,decrease,True,True,40.573,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-17T09:46:44.127717Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"Yet you hold zero Yes for 22nd july market, opinion discarded",decrease,hold,False,True,440.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-06-28T10:34:28.674063Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"there will be no ceasefire, untill the hostages will return home, and hamas will not accept their release because thats ",hold,increase,False,True,15.0446,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T18:01:48.960644Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Before you purchase YES shares, please just watch this https://youtube.com/shorts/b9eEqK0PWuM?si=PTQqHD38SpBBOL_t",increase,decrease,False,True,770.4412,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T14:08:11.845804Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Broad consensus isn¡¯t just Reddit comments and headlines. Show confirmed statements from the IAEA, Iran, or multiple ma",increase,increase,True,True,60.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:43:41.538769Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if you double 10 bucks 10 times that's 10k,decrease,increase,False,True,8.51,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T22:38:09.910618Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Yes holders really need a miracle to not lose this one,hold,increase,False,True,0.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-24T15:46:01.522785Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Not saying it will happen today ??,increase,decrease,False,True,347.6754,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T19:08:32.379017Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,People who betting on the out that Iran might accidentally say everything was destroyed and also not explicitly say the ,flip,hold,False,True,1074.9149,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T16:53:48.054985Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Oh noooo, i am panic selling now!",decrease,decrease,True,True,441.9971,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-31T21:51:47.253309Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"If Peasant beats Denizz, Scotilius, Car and scamwick, he can be the fist male to fook me right in my ass",hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T08:51:39.241554Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"scroll 8h back and read, dude with nickname printer or something",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T18:32:16.807174Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,You making pocket change on july 22 to lose it all and more om august lmao. Keep hoping,increase,decrease,False,True,5.0261,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:37:59.022895Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Cause you too dumb to read and understand basic rules,decrease,hold,False,True,1272.3509,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4b73085c0333a7ac0c51ca3367c0decdd0ba44ff --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +552650,2025-06-22T08:33:42.876337Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,go under 100meters of rock and let us know,increase,hold,False,True,4715.7552,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:09:37.221167Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,UMA show 101% of votes now lol,flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:30:21.601057Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"¡°I know the plant very well, it¡¯s a network of tunnels with different types of activity,¡± Grossi said. ¡°What we saw ",flip,increase,False,True,151.5856,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-07T15:50:07.418489Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Indirect ceasefire talks are ongoing in Doha, Qatar, now entering their second day, mediated by Egypt and Qatar, ahead o",hold,decrease,False,True,0.656,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T12:59:27.699833Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Because Israeli media isn't a credible report in this incident. CNN, Bloomberg, NYT and Reuters posted damages were insi",decrease,increase,False,True,2132.54,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:18:50.726068Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,It will be the downfall of the Trump's era!!!,decrease,hold,False,True,523.8486,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:16:24.078985Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,aight fuck it im back in the game,increase,increase,True,True,146.035,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T17:03:16.698083Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Yup. Time to drain the swamp of this fraud feom PM and UMA,hold,hold,True,True,4670.0468,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:50:46.996813Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"tranquilo, No consensus. ¡°Yes¡± has 69% but only 16.06M. Needs 16.1M minimum. It¡¯s a revote. Check the numbers",hold,hold,True,True,1016.68,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:05:13.767078Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,your pnl does not give me confidence though :(,flip,decrease,False,True,9.4,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T23:35:45.241555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,thats not how polymarket works,increase,hold,False,True,231.5838,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-04T00:21:16.237988Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Shiiid I am faster than Barak Ravid and more reliable than BBC,hold,increase,False,True,99.7804,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-17T09:46:44.127717Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"Yet you hold zero Yes for 22nd july market, opinion discarded",hold,hold,True,True,440.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T08:46:53.905891Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I think a lot of people FOMO'd in without looking at the rules,increase,decrease,False,True,4715.7552,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T02:19:48.722486Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,¡°The evidence will be both interesting AND irrefutable ¡° Let¡¯s go Don!,hold,increase,False,True,102.9871,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-24T16:42:33.184727Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"""hOw ThIs GuY HaS A PoSitivE Pnl?"" - Mistky to me 6 days ago when I bought 3k before AUG 15 NO shares )))",hold,increase,False,True,1224.39,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:49:48.703712Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Not relevant lmao. Damage on the Mountains blocking entries are not relevant,increase,hold,False,True,1272.3509,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:12:42.840492Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,KnureRetard selling who would have thought,hold,hold,True,True,1719.89,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:51:18.931465Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,P2 68.2 and P4 31.8 and 19 commits left,increase,hold,False,True,6387.8211,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T15:05:15.721774Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,took you 2m volume to 6x a deposit haha. what a miserable life you must have,increase,hold,False,True,1792.2,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:10:52.688772Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I asked AI and it said ""No way"" so bye yes people",decrease,increase,False,True,2644.46,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T22:17:34.261192Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Might have to sell my Yes in 2025 ceasefire shares at this rate; https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/hamas-israel-netanyahu-t,flip,decrease,False,True,18.5627,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T06:35:43.939282Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Who can officially confirm its dysfunctional?,decrease,decrease,True,True,747.5208,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-05T15:33:52.878021Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Every single thing you see, is part of your imagination",increase,hold,False,True,312.477,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:13:02.489012Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"IAEA cant confirm oficially in the next days because Iran has pulled out. Hegseth admits the DIA report WAS REAL, this i",increase,increase,True,True,539.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T06:35:22.762822Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,No they dont accept just a temporary. You are just another uninformed holder,increase,increase,True,True,5.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:26:51.531323Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"That is the thing, how do you do the maths? is it 65% or 70% or 50% or what?",increase,decrease,False,True,7.362,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-18T17:10:23.351592Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"I think Israel has been pretty clear that they will not tolerate an armed governing entity that wants death to Israel, a",increase,increase,True,True,178.85,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T16:08:10.254507Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Iran won the war - The regime has not changed, but quite opposite- the regime gained more power and popularity- nuclear ",decrease,increase,False,True,373.5899,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T18:47:43.604481Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Netanyahu: The underground enrichment site in Fordow was destroyed.,decrease,increase,False,True,3426.6482,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:23:33.083905Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Comments at comment section starting to disappear, lol",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T07:00:28.925814Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Good. buy more NO. I will buy extra shares at a lower price. The site is gone. Experts have estimated only 4-3 bombs a,flip,flip,True,True,37.923,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T13:41:49.341589Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"We must dispute this outcome if its ""Yes""",increase,hold,False,True,176.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T15:28:42.703214Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,They will deliver them in bulks so the ceasefire wont collapse and they make sure that the negociations over the end of ,increase,increase,True,True,3368.9153,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-23T15:35:55.753341Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"theyll have ceasefire very close to end of year, if at all.",hold,hold,True,True,292.17,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T15:22:42.199593Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I'm not from any tribe. I just hate it when people try to manipulate others. You're negative on your bet at the moment a,decrease,flip,False,True,199.99,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:22:29.388907Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It is likely destroyed and in the long run it will show that it is destroyed, but the question is does this market resol",decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T10:16:04.380124Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,IAEA¡¯s Rafa Grossi said that fordow¡¯s damages are irreparable,decrease,increase,False,True,535.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T02:47:03.374706Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"According to the rules only if the centrifuges were directly destroyed by the strike. ""confirmation of damage to above-",hold,hold,True,True,83.19,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:57:07.437543Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Don¡¯t have to take his word for it. If he doesn¡¯t say it¡¯s damaged resolution takes No,increase,hold,False,True,22.7748,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T07:31:01.429026Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Like this what makes me angry like dumb fck retarfs like greengasper posting about efforts being made about a deal, oh r",increase,increase,True,True,5.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T00:00:49.201919Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Lovely press conference. Looks like Wimbledonwinner jumped the gun here,hold,decrease,False,True,18.5627,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T18:29:57.192572Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,do you believe in Santa? or that uma and Polymarket just,flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T05:18:10.920402Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"no they didn't, just speculated about it with no math involved",flip,hold,False,True,544.1762,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:06:45.709681Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Market structure in full decline. get out now yestards. this will resolve to no either way,decrease,decrease,True,True,2753.15,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:32:16.568259Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"whales will dump soon and price will crash to 60c, and votes will be revealed that do not reach yes requirement(70%). Th",hold,decrease,False,True,289.06,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T17:46:39.124873Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"put the link in the UMA discord, it is good evidence they don't confirm destruction without inspection",flip,increase,False,True,441.7518,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T18:31:28.383247Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"You can't have enough UMA tokens to sway vote in any meaningful way, they need 65% and they own over 90% go figure",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T19:29:58.261564Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"read how the thing is pharased again ""For the purposes of this market, ¡°destroyed¡± means that the underground enrichme",decrease,hold,False,True,22.21,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T07:32:22.848535Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,it is relevant because you cannot prove the facility was damaged,increase,hold,False,True,3845.8941,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T11:37:17.174041Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""'destroyed' means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional"" Check.",decrease,hold,False,True,378.0702,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-19T05:31:03.297572Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Nope there is no deal trump just saying hoping to het one for months,hold,increase,False,True,1925.3461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-21T23:56:59.930569Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,So cheap lmao No yards have officially lost it,flip,hold,False,True,626.6756,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T01:28:43.518299Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Market structure matters. Flawed market but no recall available now. Best hope for yes is a 50/50 imo.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1734.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:48:58.222788Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The images by Planet Labs PBC also appeared to show damage to the mountain itself, apparently blocking its entry tunnels",decrease,increase,False,True,2768.65,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T21:22:04.200859Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,It¡¯s not clocking to YEStards that im standing on business.,increase,hold,False,True,2084.37,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:15:57.390792Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No video from the attack on fordow, from US military, wtih 7 B2 bombers , what was the 7th B2 doing if not watching?",decrease,hold,False,True,167.6443,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:40:00.963443Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This is a nyt and cnn cry conference,increase,hold,False,True,26.9748,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T09:41:06.670978Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It¡®a the nature of an oracle, that there are discussions in case there is no evidences. However, here we have clear evi",hold,increase,False,True,229.4116,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:17:48.378173Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i will never forget the fucking korean president markets,increase,hold,False,True,146.035,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T11:20:41.386783Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"A nice chap, i just met him on the UMA discord server, i dont think he is voting on UMA, he is there right now",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T17:48:37.306322Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Peasant is my fav whale and boyfriend,increase,hold,False,True,256.5786,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:47:01.091764Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,It's not Grossy. It's official statement from IAEA,flip,hold,False,True,836.9723,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:59:18.717961Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"you vote by UMA tokens not by positions on polymarket, are you dense?",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:24:28.102085Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,https://vote.uma.xyz/ you can go here and check the vote yourself you need at least 60% of the vote and we already have ,flip,hold,False,True,9.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:44:06.414395Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Sure they are going to strike again, this time with a tactical nuke, to finish the job. 100% SURE",decrease,increase,False,True,69.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:01:18.508311Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"JUST IN ?? U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth stated, ¡°There is no one in Fordow right now. It¡¯s completely inaccessible.",flip,increase,False,True,33.2758,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T02:15:29.260742Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"exactly, its not hard to understand, but theese no-tards think if they don't see a huge crater on satilite images that t",hold,increase,False,True,256.9838,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T05:55:28.245093Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"No agreement on aid flow, troop withdrawal, prisoners, permanent end of war guarantees. Anything else, especially If its",increase,increase,True,True,5.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:46:35.725804Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,We wont ever know for certain if it works because USA will always say that they destroyed it nad Iran will never admit i,decrease,hold,False,True,111.1119,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T19:16:56.532157Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,40% gain for 8 days is awesome,increase,increase,True,True,34.35,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T12:40:21.525583Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,If they get some Hostages out with the ground operation a ceasefire is off the table,decrease,increase,False,True,19140.9158,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T04:27:03.712267Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,IMAGINE BELIEVING THAT ORANGE RETARD MIGAKEK,hold,decrease,False,True,90.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T00:27:04.326388Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Go easy, revealed was who was voted P2 last times, Big P4 voter was across multisig and the addr commited 2.27M",flip,hold,False,True,10773.3813,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T00:31:56.512134Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""Fordow is in shambles"" spokesperson btw",decrease,increase,False,True,99.45,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:34:45.732015Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,News of the IDF said it¡¯s destroyed completely,decrease,increase,False,True,599.65,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:40:51.792119Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i think math is not UMA jeets strong side...,flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:34:05.457871Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"no he didnt, he realised this market is far riskier than he initially thought, so he slashed his size",decrease,decrease,True,True,18565.4592,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-07T20:36:30.927294Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"For the first time since the war began, Bibi put the goal of returning the hostages before the goal of complete victory,",decrease,decrease,True,True,898.6257,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:42:32.811975Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"search for ""Given the power of these bombs and technical characteristics of the centrifuges, we do know that they are no",decrease,decrease,True,True,1250.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T21:57:16.648513Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,One more P4 vote before the real vote guys,flip,hold,False,True,5.81,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T08:44:51.993884Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If it wasn¡¯t for these rules backing the no side, we¡¯d be toast already. Crazy luck I¡¯ll take it",increase,decrease,False,True,4715.7552,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T20:58:32.722181Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This is basically betting on how UMA will resolve at this point,flip,hold,False,True,112.7805,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:16:10.856472Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"You can buy the ""rounding issue"" but there are no ""half tokens""",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T02:41:59.164717Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Remember No Holders. Your fellow bettors do not even know what month it is,hold,decrease,False,True,378.0702,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-24T13:35:52.642978Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,60 Dayzzzzzzzz of SMOKEEEEEEEEEEEE,increase,hold,False,True,47.9645,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:44:56.441938Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Take it easy bro, see happening its beautiful market changed",hold,decrease,False,True,12662.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:24:36.571621Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"someone fix your fucking bot, stop that number porn",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T02:42:07.605407Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"not happening, it'll never be confirmed destroyed",hold,increase,False,True,3.91,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T23:06:25.755218Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"you can see 23,245,677.42 Tokens out of 23,224,547.98",increase,hold,False,True,2085.9595,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:45:25.521916Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,he has trades where he buys thousands at 100,flip,increase,False,True,9.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T08:58:28.425579Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Right lets see if he will hold Yes till the end,decrease,hold,False,True,28462.2826,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T21:28:07.266522Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,can you all STFU? stop yapping.,decrease,hold,False,True,2073.04,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:36:08.646045Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,they don't have this much money to buy article from CNN,flip,decrease,False,True,151.5856,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:44:39.336755Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"as per UMA web page they will be short 34k votes either way, as per betmoar, its just 10k, you can open both pages and c",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T22:29:05.583112Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Hahaha Yes people believing that a ceasefire means that Iran will allow Israel and IAEA enter Furdow before July.,hold,increase,False,True,1472.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T23:03:01.630253Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,¡°How can we raise a dispute in UMA?,hold,hold,True,True,150.08,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T10:15:07.522987Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Ok definitely a ""Yes"" at the end then.",flip,increase,False,True,33.63,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:40:00.573716Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,What can they say? They do not have access to their underground facilities.,flip,decrease,False,True,144.14,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:48:15.381734Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"We need official confirmation which has NOT provided yet. Grossi words are taken out of context, and everyone here is ju",decrease,increase,False,True,1472.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:44:16.258327Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Can someone propose? Official statement Centrifuge not operational,flip,decrease,False,True,836.9723,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T09:19:58.174242Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"This is at best a P4 then a P2, or in worst case P3",flip,decrease,False,True,388.5049,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T18:34:50.138122Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,soon enough even ChatGPT and other AI bots will caution about PM scaming in their responses since they train on reddit p,decrease,hold,False,True,578.1363,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:33:45.834384Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"BBC News channel says ""we don't have any independent verification"" of the destruction of Iran's nuclear program",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T08:32:41.984428Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I believe most people are confusing what credible reports stand for. It doesn¡¯t matter if nyt, guardian, trumps mom and",decrease,increase,False,True,7.3371,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T19:24:43.687606Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i agree but where did the iaea said that?,decrease,decrease,True,True,88.3602,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:50:05.786152Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why do you think he is some kind of uma mafia boss? this guy got wrecked on the cyberattack market badly,flip,decrease,False,True,151.5856,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:10:52.110496Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Is someone disputing since there's no statements from either IAEA or Iran so far,increase,hold,False,True,38.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:48:24.284262Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"As I said yestards, whales will dump on you while your asleep. Now for you notards, he is using you as liquidity to buy ",decrease,decrease,True,True,22.91,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-06-24T08:30:39.466683Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"israel will not agree to ceasefire untill all the alive hostages will return, and it will not happen in the next 2 month",decrease,increase,False,True,6.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-06-13T00:30:33.744242Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"We did it Peasant, WE DID ITTTTTTTT",hold,increase,False,True,990.79,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T13:00:27.135644Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,these fools believe fake news and break the market.,flip,decrease,False,True,706.5824,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:51:46.960109Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,in the discord they are already talking about the revote,hold,hold,True,True,1180.2264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T13:18:55.242188Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,UMA token will become useless if they lose the Polymarket contract. There is no point in handing off decisions to corrup,hold,hold,True,True,4670.0468,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-09-09T08:45:43.076379Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Old news. Also Israel are about to take all of Gaza City. You don¡¯t give up until the enemy is dead. Also Hamas already,increase,increase,True,True,67.4446,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:50:26.958452Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,chart is looking 1:1 like from june 22nd. same timeframe and everything,decrease,hold,False,True,18565.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:31:21.479391Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Beautiful, I sold my initial investment, now i have 1k shares for free ) thank you YES TARDS",increase,increase,True,True,22.5786,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T17:03:23.123128Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Marco rubio said something I think,flip,hold,False,True,14.82,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T22:37:31.702557Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"IAEA Director: ""We received a letter from the Iranian Foreign Minister indicating that Tehran has taken protective measu",hold,decrease,False,True,1472.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T10:09:23.993243Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,No guys you still have a chance to sell your shares,flip,decrease,False,True,388.5049,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:42:00.576461Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,What's the process of final dispute? Can I redeem my money in an hour and half?,flip,decrease,False,True,836.9811,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:39:18.384936Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Iranian FM: Currently determining the damages now,decrease,decrease,True,True,2768.65,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-24T14:20:55.490176Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Still free money for No, grab it while you can",hold,increase,False,True,4828.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T07:10:56.126057Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Minister and Cabinet Member Ze'ev Elkin: There is an intensive effort to reach the deal Steve Witkoff is expected to ar,hold,increase,False,True,4578.9473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T13:42:32.773412Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,people have started to forget that the negotiations are still going on and no one is going to get out of them. trump wil,flip,increase,False,True,706.5824,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T23:25:33.095954Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Cute. If you utilise this under-the-radar tool called Google, on this ethereal thing you can't touch or see but is every",flip,hold,False,True,327.5557,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T16:21:31.202379Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Tbh the problem is just that BTL has too much voting power. He can block every contested vote,hold,hold,True,True,10333.9234,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T14:48:58.315692Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Yes, but Iran is going to save the day for YES by revelaing it's destroyed and giving their enemies a huge propaganda b",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T11:19:03.962766Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Yeah and they dropped 12 in succession.. the shit is gone,increase,increase,True,True,52.5871,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:11:26.157243Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"louder, also can you help me with poly market? i am new.",flip,hold,False,True,2.0848,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T19:37:15.644959Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"why is it that when you want to sell something, it is always below market price?",hold,decrease,False,True,1180.22,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T21:29:52.026871Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"'Several other issues still need to be discussed, though, so an announcement of a deal this fast is not likely.' Oops",flip,decrease,False,True,589.5018,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T10:46:28.561827Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If this is firmly confirmed, then the damage was clearly limited, as the tunnel entrance could not have led directly int",increase,increase,True,True,206.4491,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T04:25:38.171293Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Ok, we just need to read this from IAEA and money is yours. As per rules! lol",hold,hold,True,True,1472.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-03T20:26:53.776569Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Hamas is accepting the 20 point plan - thanks to the entire world pressuring them as well as the Gaza Flotilla. Now I ha,flip,decrease,False,True,2723.6248,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:34:00.455199Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,So Israel just admitted it doesn¡¯t think it¡¯s destroyed. Interesting.,decrease,decrease,True,True,801.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:12:47.823Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I think we need the iaea director to sign an sworn affidavit that this market resolves yes,flip,decrease,False,True,445.8854,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T00:13:34.406199Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"IAEA is an american bitch, it will confirm soon",decrease,increase,False,True,9840.2181,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:48:41.073275Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If you would be correct in any way this would have resolved to YES already, which it didnt. Meaning youre wrong",increase,decrease,False,True,1272.3509,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T18:11:52.278319Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,hmm now you cite rules that dont exist here. it is said wide conseuse of credible sources. for now the sources say it is,decrease,decrease,True,True,3811.9045,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T19:34:02.137418Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,How long does the reveal period go on for?,hold,hold,True,True,4670.0468,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T00:36:05.740572Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Orrrr¡­ it¡¯s the ground for the negotiations,hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T11:28:33.807333Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,noway its destroyed it would leave a bigger impact on the mountin,hold,increase,False,True,90.521,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T13:35:26.872573Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"truth nuke here, it's a sad state of affairs",flip,decrease,False,True,25.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T18:36:57.763476Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,and how is USA or Israel gonna confirm it you dipshit LOL Iran will never confirm that hence the fact this is easy NO,increase,increase,True,True,94.87,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:57:28.718121Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Centrifuges not operational - IAEA chief,flip,decrease,False,True,664.9723,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:26:47.721631Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"They should be 20k short, but now they just 10k short, i bet soon they will get exactly 16.1m 1:1",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T13:47:57.460868Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,It's the first resolution source listed in the rules.,decrease,hold,False,True,7581.8437,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T23:50:42.705336Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,can someone sell yes for 80 pls,increase,decrease,False,True,791.8263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:00:14.951318Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Trump says a lot of stuff that doesn't happen. He said he spoke to Putin recently and the same day the Kremlin denied it,increase,increase,True,True,520.48,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T11:17:32.958768Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The head of the Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi has confirmed in the CBS News that the Nuclear plants are not destr",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T15:08:12.192267Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The Prime Ministers Office on behalf of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission IAEC The devastating US strike on Fordow des,hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:26:40.505993Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if you buy No don't be butthurt when you loose,increase,decrease,False,True,231.5838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T02:23:49.368217Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"that was quick enough, I can go sleep now",flip,hold,False,True,580.7363,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T20:38:46.995888Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Ok, UMA alt, confirmed, into tab group you go",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:30:40.241076Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Where do you see this shit? UMA disc?,increase,decrease,False,True,755.36,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T20:09:31.729563Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"POTUS, DoD, IAEA, Israel Atomic Agency, State Dept and many other credible news sources all on the same page. Total dest",hold,increase,False,True,102.9871,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-24T15:15:45.455055Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Yee, got you bro with chipotle gc",decrease,hold,False,True,51434.9,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:34:53.086715Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Centrifuges not operatioanl - IAEA chief now what?,flip,decrease,False,True,836.9811,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T10:29:12.932825Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,We understand they have been attacked how often do you wanna repeat thus,increase,decrease,False,True,1272.3509,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-08-04T19:12:02.026045Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,With recent developments no way there will be an agreement,hold,increase,False,True,94.32,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T19:46:51.672344Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It will. But only once. Final resolution will be p2, and there's nothing u can do abt it, uma is for whale profit, not f",decrease,increase,False,True,2.49,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T22:12:50.095137Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"PM support just told me that they¡¯re investigating into this market and resolve could possibly be reverted, STAY STRONG",hold,hold,True,True,54.34,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-04T10:01:01.294044Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"hamas has rejected demilitarization, while israel is fixated on it. good luck on the ceasefire.",hold,increase,False,True,40.224,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T22:01:00.311341Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Grok : ""No"" at this moment, as the primary resolution source (official confirmation) has not been met and the deadline i",increase,hold,False,True,43.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:04:25.094451Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Approaching a one-in-a-lifetime 100x opportunity,increase,increase,True,True,5.362,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T10:39:56.764857Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Israel confirmed the goals of the recent attacks. They destroyed the roads in order to stop anyone from taking nuclear m,decrease,increase,False,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T05:51:04.716963Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Even if it were destroyed, any confirmation will take weeks from scanning the satellites, not in a few days before the c",increase,increase,True,True,46.9811,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T12:44:54.417692Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,something¡¯s gone seriously wrong if the head of an organization speaking in that capacity to the press is not counted a,hold,hold,True,True,1252.088,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T18:21:53.073631Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,keep coping. each bomb can penetrate 60ft of reinforced concrete.... or 200ft through the earth. I mean 12 bombs thats a,increase,increase,True,True,201.5524,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T15:00:46.524403Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Can someone sell me 21 shares at 72 cents I fucked up ??,flip,decrease,False,True,14.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T14:19:59.589074Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Does this market have government negotiators, for example, some Top Hoders",increase,hold,False,True,49.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T12:58:39.526478Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,and that's exactly when resolution source matters :),flip,hold,False,True,31.4758,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T18:26:10.537772Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"here is a list of things your owners have lied about USS Liberty incident, Sabra and Shatila massacre, Nuclear weapons p",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T01:49:43.322555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro you get triggered so easily. lmao its gonna be fun watching you crash out when you loose this market.you have -2k pl,hold,hold,True,True,268.984,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T02:28:05.320987Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Denial is the first stage of grief,hold,decrease,False,True,583.45,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:36:01.106547Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Think of it this way: would IRAN / IAEA confirm their nuclear facility had been destroyed?,decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:17:35.322643Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"ok, care to share where did you obtain such info? i too would like to see votes cast before reveal phase fulfilled",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-10-05T21:44:03.363095Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Jrjs old nazi ruzzian friend if mine has died¡­¡­,hold,hold,True,True,351.747,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T09:25:12.539491Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"After loud claims of US and Israel failed attacks and ""glorious"" retaliation strikes on empty US bases in Qatar, admitti",hold,increase,False,True,2987.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T14:57:37.744932Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,No progress according to Al-Arabiya,flip,hold,False,True,21440.8926,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T21:35:12.672468Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Is Trump and Israel considered a wide enough consensus? Seems like no media is reporting in their favor,increase,decrease,False,True,3539.2928,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T04:31:35.430807Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Keep buying no I need better entry,decrease,decrease,True,True,381.4882,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T13:56:20.195784Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,1. Critical infrastructure of the nuclear fuel cycle appears to have been unaffected or sustained only minor damage.,decrease,increase,False,True,69.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T19:15:44.518431Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Tbh I have no sympathy for retards losing their money, you deserve this",hold,hold,True,True,51434.9,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T01:02:12.195527Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,They're saying they moved it. Which would leave the site 'non-functional' wouldn't it?,decrease,decrease,True,True,9243.4876,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T04:48:33.357823Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,24% vote Revealed P4 is winning Early request 56.22% 3127364.47 Yes43.78% 2435251.66,increase,hold,False,True,1182.7128,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T13:20:39.211876Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This is like a betting website FFS. Everybody just tries to find sources that confirm their bet. To everyone involved in,decrease,decrease,True,True,199.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:56:34.586423Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"For the purposes of this market, ¡°destroyed¡± means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are ",increase,hold,False,True,7.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-07T12:05:15.335027Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Everything you see is a part of your imagination, everything you see is a lie",increase,hold,False,True,890.7486,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T10:16:38.465981Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Sadly thats the case with a liar in chief,decrease,hold,False,True,403.4091,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:08:26.052722Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"not yet, didn't do the calculations, I know it needs ~11.7M votes. It might be very close though",hold,decrease,False,True,570.6559,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:31:01.384877Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,also no one surprised at all that number of votes cast is almost exact value of votes needed for consensus and adoption ,flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T18:02:37.193166Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,These are ¡°the credible resources¡± NO voters are hoping Polymarket closes with. https://x.com/globalupdates24/status/1,hold,decrease,False,True,546.38,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T06:36:01.527092Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,What makes you think troop withdrawal is getting solved by saturday. What even implies something like that lmao why you ,increase,increase,True,True,5.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T18:47:31.749176Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,My dad will call peter if they don't resolve this to Yes,decrease,hold,False,True,1603.8537,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:06:37.732188Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"IAEA: ""At this time, no one, including the IAEA is in a position to fully assess the underground damage at Fordow""",flip,decrease,False,True,8600.8608,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:02:16.620536Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I don¡¯t get how this platform is even popular. I wanted to give it a try, and the first market I saw was this. Honestly",increase,decrease,False,True,1737.5595,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-11T21:29:38.373716Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Islamists will bow their heads before Jews? This is madness!,hold,increase,False,True,101.0923,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T06:06:56.166225Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Cute yesmen scrambling to talk about the destruction above ground. They want to sell, but want a better price ??",decrease,decrease,True,True,301.5175,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3a3c1b2799709a673edf7eb4b09f9c483cd32291 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +552650,2025-06-28T21:28:44.598511Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"there is 186,374.99 unrevealed votes so far",increase,hold,False,True,1952.2295,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T11:42:42.216984Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No revote, and No will gain momentum in revoting",flip,increase,False,True,3896.8103,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:57:48.936931Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"there is currently a dispute happening on https://uma.xyz/ if you would like to join the discussion, there is a discord ",flip,hold,False,True,18565.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T22:25:42.547616Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Do you think they would rather keep fighting the IDF, until they get fucking wiped of the face of the Earth?",hold,increase,False,True,518.3041,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T16:40:18.684596Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Nisim neshama put some shekels on YES don't be kamtzan,decrease,increase,False,True,108.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T04:26:46.609196Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"He has contributed 17k to No holders so far, let him donate the final 26k that¡¯s left, his PnL can handle it",decrease,increase,False,True,18.5627,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T20:46:59.634706Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Let him complain we all know how this ends,increase,increase,True,True,810.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T02:17:30.150663Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,pay attention. Whales don't panick sell. They hold on their shares,hold,increase,False,True,36.3644,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T14:31:57.608587Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro you make ppl turn racist just because you exist,hold,hold,True,True,88.0112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:27:02.168672Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,how does this limit order works',flip,hold,False,True,2.0848,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T10:25:37.961919Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,congrats on winning this night,increase,hold,False,True,124.5856,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:01:33.877661Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,https://www.iaea.org/press let's just wait for Update on Developments in Iran (7),hold,hold,True,True,11829.328,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-30T02:21:54.587736Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,this market is ironically and diabolically becoming a time deposit of some sort.,hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:41:42.904129Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,admin already trying to sweep it under the rug - https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1938208678189859109,increase,increase,True,True,1792.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T01:51:30.480223Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"doesn't matter to me, the win/loss here is literally peanutes in comparision to 20% out of the manipulators worth given ",hold,decrease,False,True,114.7517,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T17:07:35.882521Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,exactly retard. have fun loosing your money. no one at the moment can say with certainty the facility wasn't destroyed.,hold,decrease,False,True,268.984,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:12:50.630441Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"There is only one display board, and they don¡¯t even dare to put the InSAR evidence",increase,decrease,False,True,218.4491,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T00:11:34.043234Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Yes, we must try in Discord and comments to make them understand that they are voting incorrectly",hold,hold,True,True,161.08,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T12:52:42.552591Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Trump and the White house Spokesman said 'Completely Obliterated',increase,increase,True,True,25.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,increase,increase,True,True,101.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-24T09:27:30.184281Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Same reason U.S envoy, who is supposed to be a mediator, openly threatens Iran, but his son is appointed as a Trustee on",decrease,hold,False,True,8.4674,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T06:53:27.778431Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,stop gaslighting people. the drop is due to profit taking / cashing out for other opportunities. noone believes this wil,flip,decrease,False,True,4191.4,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T00:39:03.910534Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Why is it still so low Trump literally said it was ""gone""",decrease,increase,False,True,420.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T21:36:32.985966Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,israel announced already yesterday they would start an intelligence operation - guess we will see some footage getting r,increase,increase,True,True,1026.9,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-03T21:14:48.921834Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"QQQ9000 and Alphax, please keep buying, keep cursing the potential ceasefire",increase,increase,True,True,18.0107,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:01:43.633224Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Mean reversion in the next 6 hours. Book it.,increase,decrease,False,True,1734.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-16T13:25:22.057988Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Well, of course a deal will be sealed at one point, it just doesn¡¯t happen as soon as people think.",increase,hold,False,True,3828.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T02:42:54.694082Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Denizz is emotionally attached to this market ) he keeeeeeeeeeeeps looooooooosin,increase,decrease,False,True,916.8407,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:32:45.160381Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Its an individual saying, Not an official report",decrease,hold,False,True,117.6443,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-24T08:55:22.305615Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"A source is claiming Witkoff is enjoying his time in Sardinia so much, delegation extended, talks stalled for the next w",decrease,decrease,True,True,51434.9,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:20:21.923745Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,1. Rule-level burden of proof - official confirmation required The rule specifies ¡°official confirmation from Iran or t,flip,increase,False,True,469.8302,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T15:58:56.675597Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i respect it, but eventually youll run out of money to stand behind that truth",flip,decrease,False,True,524.377,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T22:55:37.464793Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro nobody cares if the powerplanz is actually destroyed,increase,hold,False,True,1.944,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:24:16.841488Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"NYT: A U.S. official said that six American warplanes dropped a dozen 30,000-pound bunker-busters on the Fordo nuclear s",increase,increase,True,True,750.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T18:56:51.294943Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Mac Miller was the one and only likeable Jew in the world,hold,hold,True,True,39829.66,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T14:19:20.180667Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Not true risk labs just voted p2,decrease,decrease,True,True,59070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T12:55:14.799654Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"LolYessers quote Israeli Atomic Commision and imaginary reports from White House and IAEA, which doesnt exist",decrease,increase,False,True,2132.54,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T18:46:26.768724Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Do you guys seriously think Donny is gonna let a Peter Thiel portfolio company say Fordow wasn't destroyed? Do you newb,decrease,increase,False,True,1603.8537,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-08-03T01:40:04.866708Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,400k profit. You could change my life right now with a 10 dollar donation.,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:29:22.161454Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Israel didn't count before, won't count now. Their word is worthless.",increase,increase,True,True,75.8783,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T18:44:58.231283Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Logically the Chances of winning NO in July 22 and then YES august are drastically low. Hyper gambling it doesnt even ma,increase,increase,True,True,5.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-17T11:10:07.453067Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"I'm from Israel and deeply attuned to the local political landscape. From what I'm seeing on the ground, there's a real ",hold,increase,False,True,138.8889,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T07:27:51.838336Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Mossad stole the blueprints to Fordow a few years ago. Look it up. That¡¯s how the Americans knew where to strike. Look ,flip,increase,False,True,218.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T23:01:47.705194Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,yeah i know we need moer whales to flip NO next vote we need info that shows what the chief said is beeing taken out of ,flip,decrease,False,True,33.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T01:53:08.642319Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Iran's Atomic Energy Agency Expected to Issue Official Statement Regarding Nuclear Facilities Soon Amichai Stein,decrease,hold,False,True,2483.4909,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-08-10T17:52:11.485492Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,It's insane how this market is still 55-45,hold,hold,True,True,57.754,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T15:57:25.076484Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"And therefore the best available evidence is used. If the police, paramedics and the engineers all say they died, then i",flip,hold,False,True,2165.81,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T14:29:01.359307Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Definitely not lol you know that yourself.,flip,flip,True,True,3903.9318,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:53:24.936489Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Based on the rules of this bet, they don't have to show proof. You can be right about the damage and still lose the bet.",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T20:44:36.149683Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,New account to dunk on newbs like yourself. I have my Ms idk about you. HFSP.,increase,hold,False,True,730.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T10:52:46.925501Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"That¡¯s not what I¡¯m saying brother, I am just pointing out that the facility is render non operational just on that al",decrease,flip,False,True,20070.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T19:08:56.569929Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Polymarket now taken down this website...,hold,decrease,False,True,266.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T18:56:19.463483Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This market can't be resolved based on our beliefs. It has to be confirmation by those on-site.,flip,decrease,False,True,2774.8281,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T10:00:02.820759Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"You buyed YES a good price, believed congrats",decrease,hold,False,True,12662.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-07T21:37:49.170092Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Except that thats a war between two armies.,decrease,hold,False,True,636.5953,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-06T13:24:28.742079Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,ANAList Bet your favourite position is data entry,increase,hold,False,True,890.7486,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T10:48:38.402121Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"There is no reason to attack the roads leading to a ""Destroyed"" Base. meaning the American attack was not as affective ",decrease,increase,False,True,350.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T19:25:53.002514Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Israel attacks while Bahrain's PM visiting - wonder how that conversation is helping the ceasefire or making it worse ??,increase,decrease,False,True,589.4147,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-19T16:13:43.144297Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Yeah we all missinterpreting. And -150$ pnl retard impij is correct. Why dont you go clean toilets you would make more. ,hold,decrease,False,True,1925.3461,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:15:32.883176Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"lol what are you even talking about? he¡¯s stating facts and logic, you¡¯re just acting smart cause it¡¯s going your way",increase,increase,True,True,1952.2295,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T15:40:32.773435Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Not sure 100% if end of july or 15 july, but i think by 15 of july there will be a ceasefire.",hold,decrease,False,True,2772.4188,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T16:18:33.749585Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"You may take a screenshot of this market, send to chatgpt, and asking it so summarize a table of how major media source ",increase,hold,False,True,810.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T00:45:30.850644Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The director of the CIA said it has ¡°credible intelligence¡± showing Iran¡¯s nuclear programme has been ¡°severely dama,flip,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T18:37:02.599352Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Understadings= agreements, where did you take your english classes ?",flip,decrease,False,True,4578.9473,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T16:53:48.054985Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Oh noooo, i am panic selling now!",flip,decrease,False,True,441.9971,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T14:20:25.225171Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"yep, because we're betting on grammar here. and having highschool debate",decrease,hold,False,True,199.99,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T01:00:59.572228Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,'Non functional'. Do yes-holders really think they'll just keep using them now? They don't even need to be fully destroy,flip,decrease,False,True,9243.4876,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-08T21:14:58.580506Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Prime Minister's Advisor : there could be a third meeting between Trump and Netanyahu, maybe there will be an announceme",hold,increase,False,True,6568.9153,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T09:19:58.366668Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Nah they would never confirm it by june 30. im selling my shares,increase,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T16:45:36.010938Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,thank you everyone keeps saying the same dumb shit,decrease,decrease,True,True,157.87,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-16T19:27:17.814059Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,meeting while israel is attacking syria - wonder how that conversation is going....,increase,decrease,False,True,589.4147,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:58:13.648702Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Any yesers that have taken profit, are in the loss",decrease,decrease,True,True,5.362,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-22T03:50:31.961039Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"what if after Gaza city had been destroyed, both parties then agree to a ceasefire?",hold,decrease,False,True,2000.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T00:32:55.351705Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"pay attention to the market rules, this military theater was not to destroy Fordow YET",flip,hold,False,True,9020.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:46:07.361505Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,YES holders not understanding that the source listed in rules denying the destruction. Your US lying politicians wont re,decrease,increase,False,True,1272.3509,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T18:48:17.299993Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Lol white house did our research for us XD,decrease,increase,False,True,1711.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:23:55.283634Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"7. Clock is running out At 00:00 ET on 1 July 2025, the window closes. With inspectors barred and Tehran refusing to iss",flip,increase,False,True,469.8302,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T02:18:50.410799Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"if you want to make a change, take your ass to the uma discord in the evidence rationale and tell them to vote for p4 an",decrease,hold,False,True,1180.2264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T12:39:42.901239Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,No there is no update. We heard the same lie many times last week,decrease,increase,False,True,1925.3461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-03T17:19:30.052038Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Before you click on the YES button, check this out https://www.youtube.com/shorts/b9eEqK0PWuM",decrease,flip,False,True,1065.8407,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T00:24:55.406527Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"since this market explicitly requires an ""official"" confirmation from the IAEA, what would an ""unofficial"" confirmation ",flip,decrease,False,True,18565.4592,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T21:54:25.038825Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Why not FSH ¡°Yes¡± right now? The liquidity is deep enough¡­,increase,flip,False,True,2184.37,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:49:17.833554Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"just ask yourself: are the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges functional? no, they clearly aren¡®t, a",flip,increase,False,True,4191.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T16:33:57.504946Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I dont think that will happen so quickly,hold,hold,True,True,3.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T11:54:06.011129Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"No ceasefire is guaranteed for the next days. If they didnt agree on 1 single point for 2 weeks, they wont somehow make ",hold,increase,False,True,1925.3461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T16:22:22.238366Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,I will if the price be lower then now,increase,decrease,False,True,154.8538,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T00:14:44.899656Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Hold on lads. We¡¯re taking this home.,hold,hold,True,True,261.87,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T21:44:38.896252Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Are the top holder managed by bots ?,flip,hold,False,True,33.7184,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-25T17:45:34.075543Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Sure pal then youll be saying ¡°Please, please. It's too much winning. We can't take it anymore. Mr. President, it's too",hold,increase,False,True,45.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T12:29:11.514467Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,But ceasefire are here in 48 hours,increase,increase,True,True,154.8538,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-17T11:30:35.618295Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,You wrote *Biden intensified pressure* before and Chatgpt thinks Biden is still president so even the content is made up,flip,decrease,False,True,7626.2551,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T22:17:34.261192Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Might have to sell my Yes in 2025 ceasefire shares at this rate; https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/hamas-israel-netanyahu-t,decrease,decrease,True,True,18.5627,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T17:32:23.889157Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Breaking news, video of inside Furdow live now in Alzajeera",decrease,flip,False,True,5.362,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T16:42:23.376137Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why UMA web showed 70% needed before taken down? did they fucked up?,flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-04T18:56:56.840254Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I recall similar language in May where Hamas framed their conditions as ""minor"" and that's what was reported. You gotta ",flip,decrease,False,True,1901.9963,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-05-21T20:28:55.714105Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"please do not stop, i like you",hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-19T14:24:32.598381Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Hamas: Israel Rejects Ceasefire Deal with all Captives Release -https://daysofpalestine.ps/hamas-israel-rejects-ceasefir,hold,increase,False,True,1925.3461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T08:36:18.766158Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey guys, scammed by UMA and polyscam out of your hard earned social security payouts? there is a way! join our anti-UMA",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T15:06:30.954576Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Either way, they still need to hit 70% in tomorrow¡¯s vote -- plus cover the 35k shortfall from last time :)",flip,hold,False,True,10773.3813,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-24T16:40:23.405674Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Mistkyyyyyyyyy what is ur body temp?,decrease,hold,False,True,99.4445,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T19:35:47.018796Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"UMA is Polymarket, and UMA associates own more than 90% of UMA tokens, now think",flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T19:54:42.855306Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"just buy your Yes in 10h for less than it cost rn, that's all",flip,flip,True,True,13.0198,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T14:21:24.123343Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,It¡¯s impossible for P2 to reach 70% now,decrease,increase,False,True,206.5864,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T11:53:41.300319Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"People seem to think that if Iran somehow has moved the centrifuges out, that means this market should resolve to no. ""F",decrease,hold,False,True,1013.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-23T13:53:04.685183Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Exactly! Thats the whole point, and Iran said they are denying they¡¯re access to it",decrease,increase,False,True,2290.9833,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T09:29:08.761348Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"exactly, and it is obvious that the people still holding will not be convinced by either party, given the current inform",decrease,hold,False,True,1147.79,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T06:28:26.914849Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"because rules, I'm not making this shit up. Needs large majority hard to contest",flip,increase,False,True,544.1762,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-24T14:16:08.951234Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Noboys keep stating that the market is about whether an investigation is done by the end of the month. They keep assumin,increase,increase,True,True,1419.79,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T17:42:39.016771Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Doubling down on NO. There¡¯s still no confirmation from the IAEA or Iran that the underground centrifuge halls at Fordo,decrease,increase,False,True,1035.19,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:37:49.861119Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Yes price only holding cause of top holder accumulating more. Wait till he is exhausted shortly, then YES will crash",decrease,decrease,True,True,1719.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T02:46:24.968363Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,One of the strangest markets on here period lol,hold,hold,True,True,2584.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-07T15:50:07.418489Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Indirect ceasefire talks are ongoing in Doha, Qatar, now entering their second day, mediated by Egypt and Qatar, ahead o",flip,decrease,False,True,0.656,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T17:38:20.197182Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Well in reality Fordow isn¡¯t destroyed,hold,hold,True,True,9.206,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T18:26:37.854972Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"no, they choose when to reveal",hold,hold,True,True,0.2656,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T07:39:13.593091Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Funfzig burning half of his PNL on this market, love to see it",increase,decrease,False,True,39829.66,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-20T20:27:02.071147Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,And what will Israel do with Gaza in the long term 5-10 years? The population is not going to change even in another 100,decrease,decrease,True,True,242.3224,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:56:47.515897Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I understood your comments, I was clarifying the source - seems you missed my question entirely",increase,hold,False,True,1792.2,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T00:19:48.742159Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Revote P2: 16.057M / 16.91M. What happened to the last 33K? Betrayal, error, or someone forgot their password?",flip,hold,False,True,10367.015,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-24T16:44:25.858692Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,All these swings only for us to end at 90c+ anyway by tomorrow,hold,increase,False,True,4828.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T07:29:52.273355Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Most Brave Yes voters don¡¯t even know it takes 70% for consensus.lol,flip,hold,False,True,2868.6832,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T13:39:00.911063Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Still 7c it seems thaht they didnt got 70%,flip,hold,False,True,6387.8211,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:40:56.848012Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Frog you are down bad on this one,decrease,decrease,True,True,20070.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-19T15:55:09.028005Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"He is a dumb retard burning thousands of dollars cause trump told him ceasefire soon, for like the 100th time past month",hold,decrease,False,True,1925.3461,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T09:13:30.507932Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"explain why you would hold for 1.4 cents if you arent an insidor, idiot, you think you are smart lol",hold,decrease,False,True,2535.2495,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T16:22:42.442015Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Noooo, i need to go man, i can't be ready!",flip,decrease,False,True,441.9971,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T11:10:07.453067Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I'm from Israel and deeply attuned to the local political landscape. From what I'm seeing on the ground, there's a real ",flip,increase,False,True,257.966,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T00:36:33.362271Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Wow, he is selling fast and buying no, thanks",hold,increase,False,True,48.2586,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-22T22:47:32.166206Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,When you see news about hamas official or Israeli official from uncredible newss sites you know it aint real.,decrease,increase,False,True,1925.3461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-16T17:46:03.540475Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,I'm sure my emotional Big ball -1 chromosome guy will dump first )) Denizz is too insecure to admit that he lost,increase,hold,False,True,660.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T17:46:39.124873Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"put the link in the UMA discord, it is good evidence they don't confirm destruction without inspection",flip,increase,False,True,441.7518,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-10T22:17:10.371902Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,He is too dumb. He hears Netanyahu saying we will talk about a permanent ceasefire with condition hamas laying its weapo,hold,increase,False,True,0.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T04:55:13.159867Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i am pretty sure that the centrifuge argument is what hit. if you havent already, come join the UMA discord and post any",flip,hold,False,True,18565.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T17:09:07.909138Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"he will what? Lie more or less than DJT? I think the answer is a hard ""="". They are equally unreliable arbiters of truth",increase,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T17:35:02.183204Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Site is so scammy. Unfortunate,hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T18:37:58.746473Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The communication, intended to be private, included Iranian government officials speculating as to why the strikes direc",flip,decrease,False,True,33.878,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:17:48.378173Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i will never forget the fucking korean president markets,decrease,hold,False,True,146.035,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T14:18:23.337933Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Revote is locked in. P4 hit 30.1% (6.99M out of 23.22M). Even if Yes takes all remaining votes, it only reaches 69.9%.",flip,increase,False,True,7576.8768,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-22T19:34:14.779927Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,I should feel bad for peoplr losing their money but they deserve it,decrease,hold,False,True,814.58,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:32:45.208518Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"IT does lol go to vote dot uma dot xyz go to second page, search fordow, youll find, click and see.",increase,hold,False,True,1952.2295,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T14:26:48.466901Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Bro my dick is so hard. I'm buying my girlfriend a new boyfriend,decrease,increase,False,True,268.984,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T17:52:29.149307Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,they likely did that on purpose to bring in more liquidity,hold,hold,True,True,4670.0468,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T19:54:21.696135Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Uh oh. There are only 8 days left,hold,decrease,False,True,13767.5922,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-22T20:13:00.902231Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,But thank you for the donation,hold,hold,True,True,4828.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T20:49:35.060471Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i think its because i believe in it,flip,hold,False,True,18565.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T22:55:32.065856Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"So guys, basically there are some guys like @Hull and @Tomdnc who are against any result that economic science/decision ",increase,hold,False,True,19.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563307,2025-07-17T19:01:53.853917Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,I believe they will at least announce progress which is gonna pump Yes so I can sell at profit but its obviously to late,flip,decrease,False,True,9486.6298,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T01:55:07.373079Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Please dispute your chance to win are very high,flip,increase,False,True,19.8642,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T18:55:07.045166Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,borntoolate back at it again doing the same thing he did for the mineral deal. voting 3 times ??,decrease,hold,False,True,1180.22,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:34:59.347274Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"There is no media consensus, neither the IAEA has confirmed it, nor has Iran. All of them have talked about damage, not ",increase,increase,True,True,40.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T09:35:35.640228Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I read the rules 10 times and realized that truth is above the rules and I made a rational choice.,increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:45:09.579273Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,lol dumping coming feel bad to ppl that arent whales tbh,hold,decrease,False,True,94.611,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T21:23:56.807807Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"new to polymarket. under the terms of resolution there is no possible way that we should resolve to ""yes"". what is the m",hold,decrease,False,True,3.572,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T16:42:44.423947Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Reports that Fordow was attacked or struck, or confirmation of damage to above-ground structures or auxiliary buildings ",increase,hold,False,True,21.6034,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-18T15:41:13.456467Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,And the missile failed to even enter Israels airspace...,flip,increase,False,True,821.6788,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T04:14:45.809518Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"destroyed¡± means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional, either thr",flip,hold,False,True,10495.4745,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T11:29:53.844941Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,If the early request win no Holders win?,increase,hold,False,True,177.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-24T16:59:45.508325Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,For half a mil volume traded your pnl is dog shit,hold,decrease,False,True,40.26,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-11T10:58:21.511461Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Sell the remaining YES shares, buy no before August:) ull",decrease,decrease,True,True,1060.4386,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T03:33:45.198887Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"1. the IAEA has very explicit procedures as to what counts as an ""official confirmation"", they are a regulated entity wi",flip,increase,False,True,18565.4592,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-12T21:14:27.563948Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Buttplug is the manifestation of a poor Jew, don¡¯t be like him, he hates his life",increase,hold,False,True,1728.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-18T16:21:06.027988Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Pretty much over, must be kinda delusional to believe any of the parties involved will change their point of view 180 de",hold,increase,False,True,39829.66,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T13:28:59.630992Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The White House & Israel Prime Minister Office Confirm: ""The devastating US strike on Fordo destroyed the sites critical",decrease,increase,False,True,55.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T11:51:24.990642Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"this is an unregulated market, so people that are betting here are at the mercy of uma whales",hold,decrease,False,True,3.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-11T08:10:01.148118Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,you earn a lot of. monet. in this event,hold,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:26:40.505993Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if you buy No don't be butthurt when you loose,increase,decrease,False,True,231.5838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T13:32:48.848007Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Iran suspends cooperation with the IAEA - No holders lets gooo,increase,increase,True,True,13.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-05T12:29:00.890855Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Sooo Israel refusing to commit to not going fighting again after the 60 days, and Hamas refusing to agree to a ceasefire",decrease,flip,False,True,0.5045,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:31:30.029954Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Why dont u cash out now. Without the risk. Its 2%,increase,decrease,False,True,1723.0003,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-08-17T01:40:27.305496Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"All important data vectors cosidered, this is a near mathematical impossibility priced at 11 percent as of the time of t",hold,increase,False,True,11272.7633,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-17T10:27:43.932175Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,The king is back. Im here to spread the truth again and show YES holders that they shouldnt believe the lies of someone ,increase,increase,True,True,5.0261,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T09:23:18.245126Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Iran just passed bill to block IAEA from accessing the site. evidence manipulation,flip,decrease,False,True,2.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T13:19:02.880631Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Fordow Facility Status Summary Iran has not confirmed the site¡¯s destruction. The IAEA acknowledges damage but cannot ,increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T06:08:34.271222Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"yes holders will vote in dispute, they hold majority of tokens(votes) and don't care for reality, only care about scammi",flip,decrease,False,True,2500.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T09:32:40.345673Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"This has clearly not met the criteria to be passed through as ""Yes"", Furdow Enrichment Facilities havn't been destroyed",increase,increase,True,True,68.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T02:08:53.148988Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The claim that the IAEA said Iran could produce enriched uranium in months appears true, based on IAEA chief Rafael Gros",hold,decrease,False,True,54.34,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T17:32:54.254749Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"BREAKING NEWS - ""Advisor to the Supreme Leader, Ali Larijani: 'Regarding the U.S. strike on Fordow, let them be happy fo",hold,increase,False,True,4670.0468,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T23:20:56.668892Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro have you seen the UMA discord? Everyone is talking about voting yes because of all the news reporting saying the fac,decrease,increase,False,True,277.184,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-28T21:50:12.413781Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i even screncapped that just in case,flip,hold,False,True,2500.0002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T12:49:10.974606Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Rumor has it that they are still baking in Fort Dough,hold,hold,True,True,440.9485,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +541647,2025-07-02T00:57:27.245085Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,From the river to the sea palestine will be free,hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T02:34:51.691178Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,99% vote for early request actually include No.,flip,hold,False,True,469.8302,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563309,2025-07-18T20:02:12.726708Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"No need to get mad, just keep up.",increase,hold,False,True,94.25,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +563308,2025-07-22T00:08:13.128146Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,you're gonna make bank at the end of this month,decrease,increase,False,True,8.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T15:49:13.010993Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I prefer to keep buying more ¡°yes¡± from you,decrease,increase,False,True,140092.0247,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T13:52:50.458619Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,sure if NO wins and you can prove you've been influential.,hold,hold,True,True,4670.0468,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T14:31:52.074812Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Fun fact: Last months when negotiations didnt work out for 2 weeks and Israel started accusing Hamas of not accepting, s",decrease,increase,False,True,1925.3461,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T22:26:40.505993Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if you buy No don't be butthurt when you loose,increase,decrease,False,True,231.5838,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-09T12:30:39.762308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Nope. Direct talks didnt even begin. Qatar saying no Progress. Hamas officials saying Israelis aint there to really nego,decrease,increase,False,True,15.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T05:17:47.025444Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,All the big yes guys have exited/are exiting - that's all you need to know,increase,increase,True,True,2753.15,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T22:37:08.954238Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The dumbest market ever. I don't even know if it could be called a market. If it is not rigged, It is against any theore",increase,decrease,False,True,19.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-22T03:27:21.184896Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Saudi Arabia's nuclear regulator confirms no radioactive traces detected in Saudi Arabia or other Gulf states following ,decrease,increase,False,True,15.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T06:01:11.853964Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,What they¡¯re doing right now is damaging the credibility of both Polymarket and the UMA system.,hold,decrease,False,True,29717.2706,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T19:10:50.769821Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i see what you mean now, yeah you would be right. however there is still no official confirmation of the status of the u",flip,hold,False,True,18565.4592,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-19T18:56:47.956974Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,I bet it will not happen in this summer,hold,hold,True,True,3477.35,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551017,2025-07-20T08:38:13.945857Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"People thinking Funfzig is anything more than someone who¡¯s lucky and got a shitton of money, lmao if he¡¯d be an ¡°ins",increase,hold,False,True,39829.66,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-26T11:32:01.602413Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Some Yesers are starting to sell as this just started to be disputed wonder why,decrease,decrease,True,True,117.6443,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-27T09:19:59.786301Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the only question is wether the bombe hit the right spot. this has been confirmed by IAEA and satellite imagery,flip,increase,False,True,4191.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-30T18:14:02.253142Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The UMA has decided... its over... Polymarket officially a plutocracy taken over my bad agents shifting the consensus me,increase,decrease,False,True,226.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-29T17:09:55.252695Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,they cant if they are the ones with buy orders keeping the yes price high. They just don't have anyone else to sell to a,hold,decrease,False,True,24.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552650,2025-06-25T17:25:25.892491Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Correct, how exactly are the centrifuges supposed to operate if the facility is sealed off? Without access for maintenan",decrease,increase,False,True,22.7712,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..08f77a9407244643799502991f8a5fbd90a44601 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.08,0.05020588235294118,-0.029794117647058825,DOWN,11.103849728211143,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,17,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.4060955056179775,0.13640730337078652,-0.26968820224719103,DOWN,0.857310649561636,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,178,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.4471067415730336,0.40410112359550565,-0.04300561797752794,DOWN,0.8247664701219601,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,178,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.6589325842696628,0.4276404494382022,-0.23129213483146066,DOWN,0.6380541173226315,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,178,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.673623595505618,0.6589325842696628,-0.014691011235955176,DOWN,0.3214546603315082,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,178,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.16714285714285718,0.30249999999999994,0.13535714285714276,UP,1.0001584625179045,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,28,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.3716071428571429,0.16714285714285718,-0.20446428571428574,DOWN,0.9622439042282812,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,28,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.0866,0.02198076923076923,-0.06461923076923076,DOWN,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,25,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.8276173469387753,0.7468928571428572,-0.08072448979591806,DOWN,0.9252945355994032,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,98,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.6446000000000001,0.529,-0.11560000000000004,DOWN,0.9859318737894073,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,25,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.3382142857142858,0.18928571428571425,-0.14892857142857155,DOWN,0.84955904228862,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,28,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.529,0.2768,-0.25220000000000004,DOWN,0.9847750632173498,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,25,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.6851785714285714,0.5267857142857143,-0.1583928571428571,DOWN,0.9262216373710827,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,28,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.1735294117647059,0.10617647058823529,-0.06735294117647062,DOWN,0.9946812100801847,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,17,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.7468928571428572,0.522780612244898,-0.22411224489795922,DOWN,0.8668638071755446,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,98,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.5267857142857143,0.3716071428571429,-0.1551785714285714,DOWN,0.9658616053067688,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,28,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.22300000000000003,0.0866,-0.13640000000000002,DOWN,0.9987424828398666,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,25,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.2768,0.22300000000000003,-0.05379999999999996,DOWN,1.0007608166382111,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,25,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.522780612244898,0.6214540816326531,0.09867346938775512,UP,0.8201380766243591,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,98,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.4276404494382022,0.4471067415730336,0.01946629213483142,UP,0.744659480124926,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,178,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +20,0.6102000000000001,0.6446000000000001,0.034399999999999986,UP,0.853762937228258,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,25,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +21,0.10617647058823529,0.08,-0.026176470588235287,DOWN,0.8333269647235276,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,17,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +22,0.05020588235294118,0.010264705882352941,-0.03994117647058824,DOWN,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,17,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +23,0.30762269938650305,0.6186733128834356,0.3110506134969326,UP,0.22912201920782754,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,652,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +24,0.30249999999999994,0.3382142857142858,0.035714285714285865,UP,0.6612817755116602,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,28,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..54c9e1c886c9d9ca2daf0443ce6e3e505e2f8936 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +1,0.044309523809523806,0.018437500000000002,-0.025872023809523803,DOWN,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,21,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.351,0.32416666666666666,-0.02683333333333332,DOWN,0.26174647192675377,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,5,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.40047999999999995,0.6132388059701493,0.2127588059701494,UP,0.5532816641094372,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,25,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.47926470588235287,0.2577083333333333,-0.22155637254901955,DOWN,0.9877984457710852,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,34,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.5497068965517242,0.3738338129496403,-0.17587308360208392,DOWN,0.9503497100019955,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,58,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0,0.3087877358490566,0.01835064935064935,-0.29043708649840727,DOWN,0.9138338409293273,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,318,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.6468750000000001,0.616111111111111,-0.030763888888889035,DOWN,0.974982627067143,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,16,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.17411764705882354,0.12479166666666668,-0.04932598039215687,DOWN,0.9251418920608233,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,17,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.2418,0.029695833333333345,-0.21210416666666665,DOWN,0.8672439603768554,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,100,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.355,0.4109375,0.05593750000000003,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.0842307692307692,0.03810416666666666,-0.046126602564102545,DOWN,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,13,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.1295,0.07604166666666667,-0.05345833333333333,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.6886111111111111,0.40220833333333333,-0.28640277777777773,DOWN,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.1509375,0.13654166666666664,-0.014395833333333358,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,16,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.6802272727272727,0.6912916666666665,0.011064393939393846,UP,0.9357434450123654,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,22,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.18055555555555558,0.06229166666666667,-0.11826388888888892,DOWN,0.9929833693987298,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,18,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.5498155737704918,0.4125347222222222,-0.13728085154826963,DOWN,0.571655500521724,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,244,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.025,0.008620689655172414,-0.016379310344827588,DOWN,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,5,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +20,0.6249999999999999,0.39451388888888883,-0.23048611111111106,DOWN,0.9293056701390193,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,45,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +21,0.14666666666666667,0.16208333333333333,0.015416666666666662,UP,0.9977396557535269,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,9,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +22,0.573888888888889,0.5632986111111111,-0.010590277777777879,DOWN,0.5895852858009162,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.3228125,0.613125,0.29031250000000003,UP,0.9324180804008211,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,16,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +24,0.42792383292383285,0.18841319444444446,-0.2395106384793884,DOWN,0.8905368560950231,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,407,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.5730769230769232,0.6536111111111111,0.08053418803418799,UP,0.9124122301068339,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,13,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +23,0.7507780320366132,0.7939583333333333,0.043180301296720125,UP,0.10126007678755276,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,874,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..532b073dd9d681e6cc7cb060ea51f5145bc59647 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,161 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +514139,2025-06-01T16:07:05.462455Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,you mean women pro immigrants and crime?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552845,2025-06-24T04:15:44.763562Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,Breaked ceasefire in only 12 minutes lmao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T22:05:58.217904Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,ok got 2 dollars just for the lulz,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-29T20:38:45.440062Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Why are people still buying yes with over +500 dollars,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T00:13:31.375623Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Holy ¡­ 10 min ago I sold 500 no shares for only 10% loss¡­,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T17:05:01.150142Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Good thing your mom isn¡¯t the arbiter of the resolution criteria?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T15:50:18.350409Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,3 days for your carney shares become 0c in value.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560539,2025-07-08T10:01:27.681833Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"Well then hope that Trump convinves Netanyahu to withdraw its troops from Gaza and let aid deliveries through, which Net",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-03-28T19:42:27.621047Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Im in Canada and I bought shares without any issue. Buy USDC on coinbase and transfer here,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T14:08:01.447968Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,https://www.youtube.com/live/lGKaVqwTfLc carney speaking on the Vancouver attack,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T04:23:24.010241Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"hezbollah just said it will destroy israel lmao, they never agreed to the ceasefire and the vote will end in no winning",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T21:54:27.878925Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kommiela down the toilet once again. Keep on losing real money komrades.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T06:04:46.182857Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"like the lebanon market? they might end up in prison, but I wont lose my sleep over $1500, I dont like it though",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T04:58:49.412783Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"i want to say that i think they ""yes"" people are right. i but $1k on no stupidly. then did research. tiktok is about to ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T06:54:43.127628Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Sell your stocks and invest in some reading comprehension lessons instead,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T05:46:07.786414Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kommie will not speak tonight. Chicken shit,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-22T20:05:43.946183Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,You know the expectation for this is to wait until after elections for $1 right? Lol not to sell at 0.30cents dor 28 cen,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T23:31:13.600837Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,ur profit is $1 brokie get a job,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-28T03:25:10.210349Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,A vote for Kamala is a vote for Peace,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T00:37:58.947825Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"every serious no holder is just delusional. Im only holding no for the free money, im gonna switch sides. All those capt",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T18:09:03.157854Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"i will pay 100usd to any yes holders that buy 1500 in yes right now, discount offer",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T11:09:47.683934Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"good opportunity for a small no buy, just got in at $0.02",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T14:26:24.856643Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Total volume is now $82M. The market is one of the craziest market and will set precedent for future markets. All No hol,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +555752,2025-07-15T16:58:13.980899Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,Prepare for the roll into the July 22 market,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T16:38:14.055221Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,i thought obama promised to close guantanamo? Strange it¡¯s still open,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T17:09:58.122307Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kamala was installed not voted for ???? Democrat party is garbage,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +531929,2025-04-01T14:49:02.052746Z,Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?,yeah but I just put like 1 Dollar in those so not that big of a risk and loss,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527883,2025-03-19T07:41:19.939728Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,Do your own research & jump in. 3 idiots decide the outcome of this market.. highly unpredictable,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T22:33:46.630883Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,$193 bucks is a trip to the grocery store... and you wont even get that lol,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-19T23:48:50.983281Z,US military action against Iran before August?,2 likes and I dump my no bag and I slurp up infinite yessies !,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-22T00:36:30.469458Z,US military action against Iran before August?,congratulations yes holders this was the most obvious bet in history,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T02:26:56.121179Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Alright boys give me a reason to pile in on Poilievre here,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T04:55:29.878916Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"goo evening my fellow gamblers!! i cant wait to make free $40 from all the delusional pierre cucks, we should join the o",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T08:15:26.924475Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I find it funny the new top trump holder casually has 12 million on trump and than he has a random 10 dollar bet,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-22T00:06:17.819653Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"time to buy some more NOs here, who cares about losing an extra $20",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T12:08:59.193333Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,idk how this market is still selling $1 for $80c https://x.com/idfonline/status/1866090490502042088,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-22T00:27:39.637213Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,polymarket isnt stupid look at all this volume more than $100m they are gonna extend the bet then the no's jump to 100% ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-21T12:58:58.001314Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"in warsaw you can field anyone from PO and he will definitely win, even the weakest one",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T07:56:40.562216Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"i boguth i sold, i bought, i sold, and i bought again haha",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +555752,2025-07-05T10:07:04.808077Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,why did you pour all your yes? Rubbish,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T11:48:19.132555Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"If @Alexparker can risk more than $700,000, I think I can risk $200 haha.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-17T09:36:01.512004Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Bentsen has nine not one chance,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-21T00:04:45.626724Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,He will make tiny homes with all the banned plastic straws,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-29T23:50:04.048992Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,trump looks extra o r a n g e today,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527883,2025-03-25T20:45:14.682125Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,How does polymarket justify the tank in shares of yes holders after the Additional context provided out of the blue. I b,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T21:40:47.482451Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,I sold and bought rafal to profit twice,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-25T00:49:01.537927Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,someone needs to buy $20k worth of shares for it to be 80%. It might have been 80% in a more liquid market,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-18T21:44:40.319768Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Learn to read guys. Per cnn article the NSD is handling the redactions - extremely bearish for yes, they always withhold",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T02:33:21.388305Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I invested $10 learn to count before you learn to speak,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T17:41:35.036403Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I worked with carney on solving world hunger problem. Our final solution is simple but effective: people should eat thei,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-04-05T15:01:11.823472Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"i mean, its not that simple, and when i bought yes the situationn was different",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T02:27:37.231854Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Pierre is gonna end up being one of the worst CPC candidates ever. You¡¯ll see on Monday.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-30T04:27:32.436306Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Allen lickballs is a deranged fool this year,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T20:53:25.307032Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,@HolyMoses7 You bet $7.8k to make $24. You should not be talking about other people's bet bro,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T23:04:17.563167Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Risking 23K to make $90 is wild,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T04:15:43.859885Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The election is over. Trump is running out of paths to 270. He must win 1. Pennsylvania 2. Michigan 3. Wisconsin 4. Virg,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T15:59:10.674675Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"RonDeStantis sold 84,194 Yes at 99.1c $83,436",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T23:18:04.805812Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Can¡¯t even mustard up $10 bahahaha always the poors doing the most talking,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-06-15T10:30:16.910064Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,you lowlife trash not everyone has no life like you,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-01-25T13:19:58.029854Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Ofcourse you can¡¯t win a war without weapons. But what good is it if you can¡¯t find emergency services for wounded sol,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-18T00:21:03.384688Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Sorry, retard here. Now that the supreme court supported the TikTok ban 9-0, what are the no holders hoping for?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-04-28T17:46:54.388802Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"""much more popular on the internet"" that's right, chronically online groyper candidates usually don't do so well in actu",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T06:18:19.585054Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,What are you talking about? The $200 rebate is worthless compared to the cost it adds to us. It's not even enough to pay,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-04-19T22:44:03.408135Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"Welp, that sit with polymarket seemingly this fuckers want another FBI raid lmao",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-06T22:29:48.271876Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,I opened the files on video too lmao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T21:50:19.014568Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,why they send hella planes if they aint gonna do any explosions???,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-24T01:37:12.062007Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,what do you have 40 dollars in the game ?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T19:14:02.916648Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Cant wait for my $1000 coming my way soon,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T23:49:38.080673Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"damn it, I'm sorry. -$4,684.10 then look at this x",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-17T15:06:48.008589Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"F U TRUMP, let's see you climb your ass out of this one",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T12:07:56.124174Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"I paid $28 for research, show, and enjoyment. Do you understand?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T00:49:11.794492Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Yea, Taylor Swift is about to propose to me any day now.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-24T10:01:51.385063Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Will be story about drugs against trza planned by Karol team,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527883,2025-03-30T13:19:30.690167Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,lol all your replies are so full of projection. Keep seething and coping you worthless incel trash HAHAHA,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-16T23:52:34.761272Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"Joe Biden will be crushed, rip $1.5 million LOL",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-25T05:23:16.560746Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Awfully confident for what forecasters all have as a coin toss.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T13:59:11.622535Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Yes, i am proud of making $230. Are you proud of losing $250?",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-23T12:39:08.679369Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"what a silly response. You should state what job you can get that allows you to save $200,000 within 5-10 years?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-06T09:29:03.669886Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,More bad news for naworcki KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA: 33% (+2) PiS-ECR: 29% (-3) Kon-ESN|PfE: 16% (+1) TD PL2050/PSL-RE|EPP: 10% (,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T11:55:47.428224Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"because RonDeStantis own $1M worth of ""yes"" shares But he can't sell them because if he does then he end up with only $9",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T12:50:51.460654Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"¡°I like to make the final decision one second before it¡¯s due,¡± Trump said in the Oval Office. ¡°Especially with war,",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-03-11T19:14:49.336028Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"Russia has to agree. I doubt it will happen, but I bought Yes just in case.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T17:17:30.289875Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,When Israel almost DID NOT invade Syria.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T04:30:38.327603Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,bro risked 800 USD for 8 dollars LMAOOOOOOO,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T08:07:35.019886Z,US military action against Iran before August?,Massive US Air Force reinforcements at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. 22 KC-135 tankers 53 potential F-16s 100,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-03-24T02:00:14.462397Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Just 2 days ago Carney was 22% above Poilievre, now he's only 4% above Poilievre, why?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T17:25:05.553168Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,You really wasted 1200 bucks on something that is already been decided?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T19:59:33.693748Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Betting $199.800 to win $200 is something what I¡¯ll never understand.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T19:43:14.784523Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"We¡¯ve expecienced it in Romania, 2 weeks before.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T15:05:35.403258Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"17m tokens commited to the vote, thats what, $60m doing nothing",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560539,2025-07-09T11:26:10.484588Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"Idk you have to ask him, I'll tell you a fact about bunnies for 10 dollars though",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-08-04T19:49:54.535833Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"I feel this market is gonna be one of those wild ones by the time it ends, +$10M volume lol",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-08-20T19:27:11.645711Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,I¡¯m seeing this through to day 40,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-09-14T06:10:10.268409Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Reporter: What are your specific plans to bring down prices? Kamala: ""I grew up a middle class kid... I grew up in a ne",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-08-29T16:26:52.563155Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,nice man you are doing very well,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-20T22:31:00.239264Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,But i only betted 5 bucks on it :) it is a gamble. I made some money betting No at 70 (30) and selling at 20 (80).,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-18T13:02:23.183899Z,US military action against Iran before August?,I'm more confident that this will resolve YES than my sexuality,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-03-30T23:58:54.787459Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I¡¯m ¡°beating¡± for Canada. If you know what I mean¡­,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-21T11:26:44.336167Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"lol, ur PnL is sooo much better at $16 at least this guy has balls and also money to lose!",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-02T01:52:08.102608Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Polonia si a scos banana din cur. Romania o are pana in gat. Felicitari.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-19T04:38:21.336673Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Kamala Harris¡¯ peak on polymarket was 53% and that only lasted for a few days. Not comparable.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-01T10:18:58.542448Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,u will lose $90 but its ok. life will be okay.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T14:12:06.486258Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,educate yourself before u feel like ur making a valid point,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T22:49:35.021742Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Let's do a quick poll. If you think YES will win, tip me $1. If you think NO will win, tip me $0.99.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-27T09:33:48.331625Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,My guy! I have realized $600 but playing with much less size than you,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-19T23:00:18.824979Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,They add contradictory additional remarks to scam you everywhere,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T14:38:08.044198Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"""yes"" guys should take their profit before RonDeStantis sell his $1M worth of ""yes"" shares. he has to break even now or ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-23T15:45:33.838039Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"With what money??? Making $80k/year and 3/4 goes to living expenses, the other 1/4 to taxes and Immigrant welfare.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T23:26:38.978671Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"GUYS JUST REMEMBER. I WENT TO BED FOR 1 HOUR WHEN TRAZA WAS 86C, WOKE UP AND TRAZA WAS 25C. THINGS CAN HAPPEN RAPIDLY. G",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-26T21:54:20.084392Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"4,557 shares @ 25.3c I sold it at 22.8c",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T02:41:29.218901Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Clarification got leaked: ""As per the rules, the greater geographic Golan Heights will count as Israeli territory. For t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-26T16:31:51.163789Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"I see talkin¡¯ but I don¡¯t see $, even $10, or are you saving that for the $10 a day child care thay 99.9% of people do",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-24T18:32:29.574937Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Channel 13 Hebrew: Netanyahu discussed with his aides how to explain and present the settlement in the north to the Isra,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-27T20:49:37.411096Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Hey, PSYCHO. Just take your L and move on!! You about to lose that 15k and then cry in the corner, It's over yo.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T04:30:33.449728Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"MCGA not listening, keep calling him fat and retarded and hitin dat juul",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552845,2025-06-23T22:30:42.910906Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,Don't listen to people who were wrong on the Iran market before lmfao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-26T20:31:01.638227Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I can¡¯t imagine being so deluded lol,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T11:06:55.111261Z,US military action against Iran before August?,'President Trump gives Iran more time to seek diplomacy' mentioning '2 weeks max',False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T19:02:17.246058Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Ouch. Bought 72,413 No at 0.7 ($500)",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T17:29:49.130108Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,He¡¯s talking about a guy who was crazy deep in no and sold for a loss. There has been much more no buys greater than hi,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560539,2025-07-09T16:56:36.966805Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,Can someone buy my 21 shares for 20 dollars this shit will take 6-7 more days to resolve -_-,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T21:07:59.507638Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,FrancisSP8 confirmed what I'd suspected; that PM briefly reset the market as it issued the clarification. Just never see,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T17:17:00.076117Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Chat should I put another 5k in No?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-08T19:05:56.860815Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,CSIS also stated that PP had no involvement or knowledge and would have not impacted the result. PP won in a landslide. ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T09:15:27.600967Z,US military action against Iran before August?,gonna change my twitter bio to consensus of credible reporting,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T04:00:28.444486Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,You excited to be out of $350?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-04-19T22:18:27.375006Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,people might wanna check the end date,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-21T03:36:04.910008Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Justifax is down 99% ($6000) thinking Canada will have another coalition government¡­ IDIOT,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +555752,2025-07-10T19:54:48.416977Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,I sold july 15 and 31 shares when they were going up ??,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +534135,2025-04-06T17:57:56.546671Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?,yea we are f ggot but we make money and also we told you,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T15:35:26.738349Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"That's why I hold, That's why I hold with all I have. That's why I hold.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T23:44:21.376088Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,I¡¯m gonna win $130 with zero risk. You¡¯re gonna like over a thousand for no reason,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-27T13:50:16.626149Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,How can anyone vote for a war monger who wants to tax your unrealized gains? Kamala wasn¡¯t even elected in any primary ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T21:13:36.877772Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,New to Polymarket. The other tiktok ban market had $241k volume this one is at $18.3m. Does the volume affect how heavy ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T00:27:57.883429Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,pretty absurd to add additional context when it's still being actively traded. what a fucking shitshow. I bought this be,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-18T00:49:10.430199Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"a whale just spent $80k USD on ""NO PP"" shares wtfff",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-03-16T02:08:08.359879Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,TRUMP IS BOMBING THE HOUTHIS. NO IS A LOCK.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T22:56:36.149342Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,Like this post if you support Black Trans Athletes,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552845,2025-06-23T22:54:21.619558Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,An Iranian official confirms that an agreement has been reached to stop the war between Iran and Israel https://x.com/Al,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T05:44:33.114624Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Could someone slide anything over so I can buy?,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T23:47:46.715301Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"I'm gonna make $10 guaranteed, while you'll lose $500 unless you pull out right now.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T11:42:15.762284Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"just put a measly $700 on no, will come back when i make a quarter mill",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-23T18:54:02.832809Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,you bought like $12 today bro ??,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T14:54:52.841643Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Would the market result in yes in the next 24 hours.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-11T15:50:59.304414Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"JD vance, our vice president is very likely to be our next president. It may be worth the risk because Canada has had 10",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T20:49:42.643146Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,bro this yes guy put $7 mil man crazy,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-16T23:35:44.153026Z,US military action against Iran before August?,Israel's Channel 14 is reporting that US forces are bombing Iran,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-26T09:39:00.183953Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"It was obvious manipulation, they changing rules as they want, cryptobetting apear to be another crypto scam. Bitconeeee",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-25T18:19:07.246986Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,No chance. She already got two more SS gents to guard her because she is afraid DEMOCRATS will assassinate her and repla,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T02:11:27.186203Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,The dumbest unheard of lib mp steals more than that on expenses,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T21:50:36.591786Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Yes!!!! Thank you for the logic. I am tired of having to explain us law when it¡¯s so easy to lookup and fact check how ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-20T14:19:34.624434Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,lol I don't care I only had 5 shares,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T21:42:49.593483Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Anything I say, you won't believe anyways... There's literally no point lol.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T19:09:19.255468Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"'No' guys, this is why I would save the $750 pay for dispute if I were you:",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-21T07:16:18.961747Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Poll shows LPC is maintaining vote efficiency, comfortable majority",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-05-12T17:55:50.822407Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"After that $50K loss SAtANTANGO took on the China deal before the June market, he¡¯s about to take a second hit--and the",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-29T17:18:53.552329Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"You didn't even read Carney resume, retard.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T18:49:27.910949Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,My sister is a nurse and is constantly in the midst of Indian families believing their 90 year old mother (who came last,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +531929,2025-04-03T18:03:05.448588Z,Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?,he didnt make a single day in the past month without posting less than 35,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-25T11:25:30.069234Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,lol you have $0 bet be rude to pick up these odds get a job or hobby and place a bet or stop commenting on every post,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..263cca262274649780c0dfa8990957dc03e907a6 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,161 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +507276,2025-01-20T00:13:31.375623Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Holy ¡­ 10 min ago I sold 500 no shares for only 10% loss¡­,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T15:50:18.350409Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,3 days for your carney shares become 0c in value.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T06:54:43.127628Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Sell your stocks and invest in some reading comprehension lessons instead,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-29T20:38:45.440062Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Why are people still buying yes with over +500 dollars,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T22:05:58.217904Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,ok got 2 dollars just for the lulz,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552845,2025-06-24T04:15:44.763562Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,Breaked ceasefire in only 12 minutes lmao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T16:07:05.462455Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,you mean women pro immigrants and crime?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T14:08:01.447968Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,https://www.youtube.com/live/lGKaVqwTfLc carney speaking on the Vancouver attack,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-03-28T19:42:27.621047Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Im in Canada and I bought shares without any issue. Buy USDC on coinbase and transfer here,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560539,2025-07-08T10:01:27.681833Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"Well then hope that Trump convinves Netanyahu to withdraw its troops from Gaza and let aid deliveries through, which Net",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T04:23:24.010241Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"hezbollah just said it will destroy israel lmao, they never agreed to the ceasefire and the vote will end in no winning",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T21:54:27.878925Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kommiela down the toilet once again. Keep on losing real money komrades.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T11:09:47.683934Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"good opportunity for a small no buy, just got in at $0.02",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T04:58:49.412783Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"i want to say that i think they ""yes"" people are right. i but $1k on no stupidly. then did research. tiktok is about to ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T05:46:07.786414Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kommie will not speak tonight. Chicken shit,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T18:09:03.157854Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"i will pay 100usd to any yes holders that buy 1500 in yes right now, discount offer",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-28T03:25:10.210349Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,A vote for Kamala is a vote for Peace,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T17:05:01.150142Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Good thing your mom isn¡¯t the arbiter of the resolution criteria?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-22T20:05:43.946183Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,You know the expectation for this is to wait until after elections for $1 right? Lol not to sell at 0.30cents dor 28 cen,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +555752,2025-07-15T16:58:13.980899Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,Prepare for the roll into the July 22 market,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T06:04:46.182857Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"like the lebanon market? they might end up in prison, but I wont lose my sleep over $1500, I dont like it though",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T14:26:24.856643Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Total volume is now $82M. The market is one of the craziest market and will set precedent for future markets. All No hol,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T00:37:58.947825Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"every serious no holder is just delusional. Im only holding no for the free money, im gonna switch sides. All those capt",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +531929,2025-04-01T14:49:02.052746Z,Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?,yeah but I just put like 1 Dollar in those so not that big of a risk and loss,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T23:31:13.600837Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,ur profit is $1 brokie get a job,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T16:38:14.055221Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,i thought obama promised to close guantanamo? Strange it¡¯s still open,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T17:09:58.122307Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kamala was installed not voted for ???? Democrat party is garbage,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T22:33:46.630883Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,$193 bucks is a trip to the grocery store... and you wont even get that lol,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527883,2025-03-19T07:41:19.939728Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,Do your own research & jump in. 3 idiots decide the outcome of this market.. highly unpredictable,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T04:55:29.878916Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"goo evening my fellow gamblers!! i cant wait to make free $40 from all the delusional pierre cucks, we should join the o",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-19T23:48:50.983281Z,US military action against Iran before August?,2 likes and I dump my no bag and I slurp up infinite yessies !,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-21T12:58:58.001314Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"in warsaw you can field anyone from PO and he will definitely win, even the weakest one",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T02:26:56.121179Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Alright boys give me a reason to pile in on Poilievre here,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-22T00:06:17.819653Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"time to buy some more NOs here, who cares about losing an extra $20",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T12:08:59.193333Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,idk how this market is still selling $1 for $80c https://x.com/idfonline/status/1866090490502042088,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-22T00:36:30.469458Z,US military action against Iran before August?,congratulations yes holders this was the most obvious bet in history,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T08:15:26.924475Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I find it funny the new top trump holder casually has 12 million on trump and than he has a random 10 dollar bet,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-22T00:27:39.637213Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,polymarket isnt stupid look at all this volume more than $100m they are gonna extend the bet then the no's jump to 100% ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-29T23:50:04.048992Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,trump looks extra o r a n g e today,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-17T09:36:01.512004Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Bentsen has nine not one chance,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +555752,2025-07-05T10:07:04.808077Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,why did you pour all your yes? Rubbish,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T07:56:40.562216Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"i boguth i sold, i bought, i sold, and i bought again haha",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-21T00:04:45.626724Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,He will make tiny homes with all the banned plastic straws,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-18T00:21:03.384688Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Sorry, retard here. Now that the supreme court supported the TikTok ban 9-0, what are the no holders hoping for?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527883,2025-03-25T20:45:14.682125Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,How does polymarket justify the tank in shares of yes holders after the Additional context provided out of the blue. I b,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T11:48:19.132555Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"If @Alexparker can risk more than $700,000, I think I can risk $200 haha.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T17:41:35.036403Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I worked with carney on solving world hunger problem. Our final solution is simple but effective: people should eat thei,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-18T21:44:40.319768Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Learn to read guys. Per cnn article the NSD is handling the redactions - extremely bearish for yes, they always withhold",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-25T00:49:01.537927Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,someone needs to buy $20k worth of shares for it to be 80%. It might have been 80% in a more liquid market,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T02:27:37.231854Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Pierre is gonna end up being one of the worst CPC candidates ever. You¡¯ll see on Monday.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T21:40:47.482451Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,I sold and bought rafal to profit twice,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-30T04:27:32.436306Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Allen lickballs is a deranged fool this year,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T02:33:21.388305Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I invested $10 learn to count before you learn to speak,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T23:04:17.563167Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Risking 23K to make $90 is wild,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-04-05T15:01:11.823472Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"i mean, its not that simple, and when i bought yes the situationn was different",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T20:53:25.307032Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,@HolyMoses7 You bet $7.8k to make $24. You should not be talking about other people's bet bro,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T15:59:10.674675Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"RonDeStantis sold 84,194 Yes at 99.1c $83,436",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-06-15T10:30:16.910064Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,you lowlife trash not everyone has no life like you,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T04:15:43.859885Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The election is over. Trump is running out of paths to 270. He must win 1. Pennsylvania 2. Michigan 3. Wisconsin 4. Virg,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T23:18:04.805812Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Can¡¯t even mustard up $10 bahahaha always the poors doing the most talking,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-04-28T17:46:54.388802Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"""much more popular on the internet"" that's right, chronically online groyper candidates usually don't do so well in actu",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-01-25T13:19:58.029854Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Ofcourse you can¡¯t win a war without weapons. But what good is it if you can¡¯t find emergency services for wounded sol,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-04-19T22:44:03.408135Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"Welp, that sit with polymarket seemingly this fuckers want another FBI raid lmao",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T06:18:19.585054Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,What are you talking about? The $200 rebate is worthless compared to the cost it adds to us. It's not even enough to pay,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-06T22:29:48.271876Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,I opened the files on video too lmao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T21:50:19.014568Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,why they send hella planes if they aint gonna do any explosions???,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T23:49:38.080673Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"damn it, I'm sorry. -$4,684.10 then look at this x",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-24T01:37:12.062007Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,what do you have 40 dollars in the game ?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T19:14:02.916648Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Cant wait for my $1000 coming my way soon,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-24T10:01:51.385063Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Will be story about drugs against trza planned by Karol team,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527883,2025-03-30T13:19:30.690167Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,lol all your replies are so full of projection. Keep seething and coping you worthless incel trash HAHAHA,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-17T15:06:48.008589Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"F U TRUMP, let's see you climb your ass out of this one",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T13:59:11.622535Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Yes, i am proud of making $230. Are you proud of losing $250?",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T00:49:11.794492Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Yea, Taylor Swift is about to propose to me any day now.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T12:07:56.124174Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"I paid $28 for research, show, and enjoyment. Do you understand?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-16T23:52:34.761272Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"Joe Biden will be crushed, rip $1.5 million LOL",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T19:59:33.693748Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Betting $199.800 to win $200 is something what I¡¯ll never understand.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-25T05:23:16.560746Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Awfully confident for what forecasters all have as a coin toss.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T11:55:47.428224Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"because RonDeStantis own $1M worth of ""yes"" shares But he can't sell them because if he does then he end up with only $9",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-23T12:39:08.679369Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"what a silly response. You should state what job you can get that allows you to save $200,000 within 5-10 years?",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-03-11T19:14:49.336028Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"Russia has to agree. I doubt it will happen, but I bought Yes just in case.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T04:30:38.327603Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,bro risked 800 USD for 8 dollars LMAOOOOOOO,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T17:17:30.289875Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,When Israel almost DID NOT invade Syria.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T12:50:51.460654Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"¡°I like to make the final decision one second before it¡¯s due,¡± Trump said in the Oval Office. ¡°Especially with war,",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-06T09:29:03.669886Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,More bad news for naworcki KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA: 33% (+2) PiS-ECR: 29% (-3) Kon-ESN|PfE: 16% (+1) TD PL2050/PSL-RE|EPP: 10% (,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-03-24T02:00:14.462397Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Just 2 days ago Carney was 22% above Poilievre, now he's only 4% above Poilievre, why?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T17:25:05.553168Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,You really wasted 1200 bucks on something that is already been decided?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T08:07:35.019886Z,US military action against Iran before August?,Massive US Air Force reinforcements at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. 22 KC-135 tankers 53 potential F-16s 100,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T19:43:14.784523Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"We¡¯ve expecienced it in Romania, 2 weeks before.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560539,2025-07-09T11:26:10.484588Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"Idk you have to ask him, I'll tell you a fact about bunnies for 10 dollars though",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T15:05:35.403258Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"17m tokens commited to the vote, thats what, $60m doing nothing",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-08-29T16:26:52.563155Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,nice man you are doing very well,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-08-04T19:49:54.535833Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"I feel this market is gonna be one of those wild ones by the time it ends, +$10M volume lol",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-08-20T19:27:11.645711Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,I¡¯m seeing this through to day 40,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-09-14T06:10:10.268409Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Reporter: What are your specific plans to bring down prices? Kamala: ""I grew up a middle class kid... I grew up in a ne",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-19T04:38:21.336673Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Kamala Harris¡¯ peak on polymarket was 53% and that only lasted for a few days. Not comparable.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-01T10:18:58.542448Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,u will lose $90 but its ok. life will be okay.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-18T13:02:23.183899Z,US military action against Iran before August?,I'm more confident that this will resolve YES than my sexuality,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-21T11:26:44.336167Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"lol, ur PnL is sooo much better at $16 at least this guy has balls and also money to lose!",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-03-30T23:58:54.787459Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I¡¯m ¡°beating¡± for Canada. If you know what I mean¡­,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-02T01:52:08.102608Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Polonia si a scos banana din cur. Romania o are pana in gat. Felicitari.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-20T22:31:00.239264Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,But i only betted 5 bucks on it :) it is a gamble. I made some money betting No at 70 (30) and selling at 20 (80).,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T14:12:06.486258Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,educate yourself before u feel like ur making a valid point,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-23T15:45:33.838039Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"With what money??? Making $80k/year and 3/4 goes to living expenses, the other 1/4 to taxes and Immigrant welfare.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-27T09:33:48.331625Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,My guy! I have realized $600 but playing with much less size than you,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T22:49:35.021742Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Let's do a quick poll. If you think YES will win, tip me $1. If you think NO will win, tip me $0.99.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-19T23:00:18.824979Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,They add contradictory additional remarks to scam you everywhere,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T14:38:08.044198Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"""yes"" guys should take their profit before RonDeStantis sell his $1M worth of ""yes"" shares. he has to break even now or ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T23:26:38.978671Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"GUYS JUST REMEMBER. I WENT TO BED FOR 1 HOUR WHEN TRAZA WAS 86C, WOKE UP AND TRAZA WAS 25C. THINGS CAN HAPPEN RAPIDLY. G",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-26T21:54:20.084392Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"4,557 shares @ 25.3c I sold it at 22.8c",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T19:02:17.246058Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Ouch. Bought 72,413 No at 0.7 ($500)",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T02:41:29.218901Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Clarification got leaked: ""As per the rules, the greater geographic Golan Heights will count as Israeli territory. For t",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-24T18:32:29.574937Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Channel 13 Hebrew: Netanyahu discussed with his aides how to explain and present the settlement in the north to the Isra,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552845,2025-06-23T22:30:42.910906Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,Don't listen to people who were wrong on the Iran market before lmfao,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-26T16:31:51.163789Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"I see talkin¡¯ but I don¡¯t see $, even $10, or are you saving that for the $10 a day child care thay 99.9% of people do",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-27T20:49:37.411096Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Hey, PSYCHO. Just take your L and move on!! You about to lose that 15k and then cry in the corner, It's over yo.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T04:30:33.449728Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"MCGA not listening, keep calling him fat and retarded and hitin dat juul",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-26T20:31:01.638227Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I can¡¯t imagine being so deluded lol,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T17:29:49.130108Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,He¡¯s talking about a guy who was crazy deep in no and sold for a loss. There has been much more no buys greater than hi,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T09:15:27.600967Z,US military action against Iran before August?,gonna change my twitter bio to consensus of credible reporting,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T21:07:59.507638Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,FrancisSP8 confirmed what I'd suspected; that PM briefly reset the market as it issued the clarification. Just never see,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560539,2025-07-09T16:56:36.966805Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,Can someone buy my 21 shares for 20 dollars this shit will take 6-7 more days to resolve -_-,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T11:06:55.111261Z,US military action against Iran before August?,'President Trump gives Iran more time to seek diplomacy' mentioning '2 weeks max',False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-21T03:36:04.910008Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Justifax is down 99% ($6000) thinking Canada will have another coalition government¡­ IDIOT,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T17:17:00.076117Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Chat should I put another 5k in No?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-08T19:05:56.860815Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,CSIS also stated that PP had no involvement or knowledge and would have not impacted the result. PP won in a landslide. ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +555752,2025-07-10T19:54:48.416977Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,I sold july 15 and 31 shares when they were going up ??,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T04:00:28.444486Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,You excited to be out of $350?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-27T13:50:16.626149Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,How can anyone vote for a war monger who wants to tax your unrealized gains? Kamala wasn¡¯t even elected in any primary ,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T23:44:21.376088Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,I¡¯m gonna win $130 with zero risk. You¡¯re gonna like over a thousand for no reason,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T21:13:36.877772Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,New to Polymarket. The other tiktok ban market had $241k volume this one is at $18.3m. Does the volume affect how heavy ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-04-19T22:18:27.375006Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,people might wanna check the end date,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T15:35:26.738349Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"That's why I hold, That's why I hold with all I have. That's why I hold.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +534135,2025-04-06T17:57:56.546671Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?,yea we are f ggot but we make money and also we told you,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-03-16T02:08:08.359879Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,TRUMP IS BOMBING THE HOUTHIS. NO IS A LOCK.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T23:47:46.715301Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"I'm gonna make $10 guaranteed, while you'll lose $500 unless you pull out right now.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552845,2025-06-23T22:54:21.619558Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,An Iranian official confirms that an agreement has been reached to stop the war between Iran and Israel https://x.com/Al,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T00:27:57.883429Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,pretty absurd to add additional context when it's still being actively traded. what a fucking shitshow. I bought this be,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T05:44:33.114624Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Could someone slide anything over so I can buy?,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T22:56:36.149342Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,Like this post if you support Black Trans Athletes,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T20:49:42.643146Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,bro this yes guy put $7 mil man crazy,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-18T00:49:10.430199Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"a whale just spent $80k USD on ""NO PP"" shares wtfff",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-11T15:50:59.304414Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"JD vance, our vice president is very likely to be our next president. It may be worth the risk because Canada has had 10",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T11:42:15.762284Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"just put a measly $700 on no, will come back when i make a quarter mill",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-25T18:19:07.246986Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,No chance. She already got two more SS gents to guard her because she is afraid DEMOCRATS will assassinate her and repla,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T14:54:52.841643Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Would the market result in yes in the next 24 hours.,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T02:11:27.186203Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,The dumbest unheard of lib mp steals more than that on expenses,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-21T07:16:18.961747Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Poll shows LPC is maintaining vote efficiency, comfortable majority",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-26T09:39:00.183953Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"It was obvious manipulation, they changing rules as they want, cryptobetting apear to be another crypto scam. Bitconeeee",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T21:50:36.591786Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Yes!!!! Thank you for the logic. I am tired of having to explain us law when it¡¯s so easy to lookup and fact check how ,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-20T14:19:34.624434Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,lol I don't care I only had 5 shares,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-05-12T17:55:50.822407Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"After that $50K loss SAtANTANGO took on the China deal before the June market, he¡¯s about to take a second hit--and the",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T19:09:19.255468Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"'No' guys, this is why I would save the $750 pay for dispute if I were you:",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-29T17:18:53.552329Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"You didn't even read Carney resume, retard.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T21:42:49.593483Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Anything I say, you won't believe anyways... There's literally no point lol.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +531929,2025-04-03T18:03:05.448588Z,Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?,he didnt make a single day in the past month without posting less than 35,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-16T23:35:44.153026Z,US military action against Iran before August?,Israel's Channel 14 is reporting that US forces are bombing Iran,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T18:49:27.910949Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,My sister is a nurse and is constantly in the midst of Indian families believing their 90 year old mother (who came last,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-23T18:54:02.832809Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,you bought like $12 today bro ??,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-25T11:25:30.069234Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,lol you have $0 bet be rude to pick up these odds get a job or hobby and place a bet or stop commenting on every post,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..002add660093e19eae00dac65c56c66f80f77421 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,449 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +507276,2025-01-10T19:03:01.523876Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Likewise... but also I can't because I live in the US?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T13:24:56.468347Z,US military action against Iran before August?,You Sound Stressed Bro .. Breath,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-23T20:13:53.325389Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"How do you get money on here every time i select credit card it says ""loading moon pay"" but doesn't actually load. And m",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-26T21:42:27.941439Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"You¡¯ll get no such agreement here buddy. This is traitor town, and they¡¯re all in on their traitor overlord.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T06:10:27.471976Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"@upp bought 4,670 No for Pierre Poilievre at 80.4c ($3,755) 1m ago- another waste of $1000",YES,NO,False,True,591.63,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T19:29:27.394756Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Sorry, not even 20 bucks more like 2 hahahahahahahahahhahahaah",NO,NO,True,True,118.4549,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T15:50:18.350409Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,3 days for your carney shares become 0c in value.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T17:47:22.959697Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"It must resolve in NO, because the files released on 19th were heavily redacted and did not offer any new info related t",NO,NO,True,True,73.5111,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-29T20:38:45.440062Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Why are people still buying yes with over +500 dollars,YES,NO,False,True,7069.55,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-23T18:28:59.629548Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,i cant wait to see polywhale substack try to explain their loss of $14k,NO,NO,True,True,148.61,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T21:43:51.389156Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Right so all of this insulting and you only have like $100 worth of skin the game? Are you just naturally evil then?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10811.9531,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527883,2025-03-18T16:46:28.991563Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,"eastpak please market sell the rest of your shares, I missed your godfill",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +555752,2025-07-05T10:07:04.808077Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,why did you pour all your yes? Rubbish,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T06:30:03.738956Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"gg car, and here we are being retarded, i lost $100 yesterday ;D, teach us your ways",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.7673,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-23T18:54:02.832809Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,you bought like $12 today bro ??,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1864.23,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T03:29:01.947728Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"I mean I get it's only $15 at 0.1c a share... but WHY. That doesn't make you look smarter or more plannet, that just lo",YES,NO,False,True,62.61,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-29T17:33:34.052718Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"BS, I sold Carney yes for 99.6 earlier",NO,NO,True,True,1879.4015,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-21T07:31:18.444595Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Yes. 20k shares will lead to $20,000 if you win the bet. Goodluck!",YES,YES,True,True,2100.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T03:42:05.122377Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Guys, my son has $200k in profits and has been on this site for more than one year",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-04-19T19:07:37.044173Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Nope. It was a false report from kyiv independent. They said it was not verified the source,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T19:09:19.255468Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"'No' guys, this is why I would save the $750 pay for dispute if I were you:",YES,NO,False,True,30604.8235,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-04-17T20:19:26.114131Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,as opposed to a guy that is so unjustifiably self-confident that he bets money on politics he doesn't even understand,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T22:28:53.029231Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,POLAND FOR POLES NOT FOR IMMIGRANTS!,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T20:57:12.998626Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,just question all of big people of pally how work merging like what lcp8 is doing to make no share in yes share,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,87.5881,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-05T18:29:15.393383Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I bought pierre at 44c and acciedentally sold at 35c for a loss without even knowing. Was pleased to to discover that th,YES,YES,True,True,1373.8627,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-04-19T22:42:12.460005Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"I sold my ""no"" shares when the price was super high, then used half of my winnings to buy ""yes"" at a very low price, not",YES,NO,False,True,899.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T19:43:45.363136Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"hey debased, i ask you kindly to donate me 5 dollars so I can buy me a happy meal to cry in :(",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,44.212,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T02:46:40.991271Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Anyone wanna give me 2 bucks, wife impregnated me and left me with no child support",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,5.22,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-08-20T19:27:11.645711Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,I¡¯m seeing this through to day 40,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T18:21:20.524513Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,wow i bought at the right time looks like,NO,YES,False,True,700.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T10:56:09.173444Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"buy buy buy, NO is paying $1k for every $1. lfg!",YES,YES,True,True,1034.9959,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T16:42:54.486289Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Explains why this market is still selling $1 for $75c,YES,NO,False,True,1190.7025,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T08:07:35.019886Z,US military action against Iran before August?,Massive US Air Force reinforcements at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. 22 KC-135 tankers 53 potential F-16s 100,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-23T22:52:47.647962Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,Are people pumping this market because Trump said Putin agreed to the version of his ceasefire proposal that has multipl,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-23T14:28:05.676207Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"I can send you a blockchain wallet ID to prove it, but you don't even have $10 to play with on this site OMEGALOL",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,11112.2527,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T00:57:00.719303Z,US military action against Iran before August?,This is what happens when you give Jeets access to the Internet.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T12:41:29.034904Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Ukrainian children receive an allowance of 600 dollars and Polish children receive 200. Why does the Polish government t,YES,NO,False,True,619.0617,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T02:27:37.231854Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Pierre is gonna end up being one of the worst CPC candidates ever. You¡¯ll see on Monday.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-15T16:41:50.406044Z,US military action against Iran before August?,So if the USA is not involved why did Trump veto the Plan to assassinate the supreme Leader? They wouldnt be a need to t,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T09:25:17.143725Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"at least I am gaining $1,600 while you are losing it. It is almost like you gave me the money yourself. Thank you!",YES,YES,True,True,62062.4754,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-20T10:42:49.510038Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,Not gonna lie it¡¯s scaring me now,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T18:21:03.722513Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,I paid 9k on a guaranteed win to make $110,YES,YES,True,True,8839.6153,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T19:36:11.667077Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"risk only the money that u can lose, i bet this my 60bucks going on 1000X flip when i woke up tommorrow. good luck betto",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,55.13,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T11:11:23.569089Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"just put $5k then walk away with $240k a day later, enough to buy yourself a new car sir, you deserve it.",NO,YES,False,True,273.61,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T10:12:19.042789Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,isn't that stupid discord mods deciding the resolution of $70m volume market lol,NO,NO,True,True,598.752,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-30T01:20:05.135188Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,the post says there were 31k cellphones there,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T03:21:29.916746Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,"Another account holding no to hedge, probably.",NO,NO,True,True,2003.8147,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-04-28T17:46:54.388802Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"""much more popular on the internet"" that's right, chronically online groyper candidates usually don't do so well in actu",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-20T03:30:35.178219Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,check order book doors someone selling 300k plus yes shares lol at 40c,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T09:54:12.086256Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Joking he prob has some ties with the elites and is gonna fuck us somr how lol i still believe in no,NO,NO,True,True,314.34,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-26T07:15:05.342302Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Only one exiting this mark is me at $1,YES,NO,False,True,443.0809,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-11T20:49:14.428082Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,bro is this thing getting banned or what I have invested 11 bucks on this,YES,NO,False,True,11.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-29T23:50:04.048992Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,trump looks extra o r a n g e today,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T18:49:27.910949Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,My sister is a nurse and is constantly in the midst of Indian families believing their 90 year old mother (who came last,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1187.0874,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:30:19.199257Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Files released and Y still at $85???? We are so cooked :-(,YES,YES,True,True,107.2,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-19T23:48:50.983281Z,US military action against Iran before August?,2 likes and I dump my no bag and I slurp up infinite yessies !,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T00:12:53.671663Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Democrats are sooo fuckin stupid. Kamala is toast you fools,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-22T20:17:57.760085Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I make $120k and I need $200. Maybe next year,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,906.3296,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-24T18:54:53.386735Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"Hopefully the ""extensive research"" will be worth the 30 dollars u can spend on a toy",YES,NO,False,True,14.9712,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T14:19:39.071418Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"If Alex can lose millions, I can afford to lose $4 to make $18. Ggg",NO,YES,False,True,1.303,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-21T03:22:24.955731Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,At a price higher than I bought them for!,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2309.7413,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T12:07:56.124174Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"I paid $28 for research, show, and enjoyment. Do you understand?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,28.26,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-20T17:36:24.926542Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Yes, sell. According to https://www.ynetnews.com/category/3089#rklaxqjg1x, the YES should be priced at $0.90 by now, thu",YES,NO,False,True,3.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-01T00:16:08.681933Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,the 1.6% discount is to account for time value of money. this is 100% to resolve as YES and why all the smartest traders,YES,YES,True,True,14905.0029,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T21:32:22.376199Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,idk why I bought 8$ worth of stock waste of money,NO,NO,True,True,7.2643,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-04-21T11:51:40.616583Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Peskov said that Russia ¡°remains open to searching for a peaceful settlement and is continuing to work with the America,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560539,2025-07-08T10:01:27.681833Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"Well then hope that Trump convinves Netanyahu to withdraw its troops from Gaza and let aid deliveries through, which Net",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T13:42:07.745567Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"So, who is going to pay the $750 to dispute this result?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,392.37,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T07:49:08.346024Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Stop buying duds. With the clarification there is 0% chance of NO.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-27T13:50:16.626149Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,How can anyone vote for a war monger who wants to tax your unrealized gains? Kamala wasn¡¯t even elected in any primary ,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T20:28:14.430238Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Melania: Buy Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? No 69 8,417 shares $5,807.88 3 minutes ago",NO,NO,True,True,302.0599,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-02T04:01:57.009533Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"I'm a foreigner, but I'm sorry. I also bet on RT and lost $5000.",YES,NO,False,True,7179.2511,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-05T00:30:45.044978Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,One of the top holders here Joe-Biden has 96940 shares on Pierre Yes. His previous bets where he lost big was Trump No (,YES,NO,False,True,493.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T15:37:07.215852Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"just put $25k, wait for Trump, exit with $1M",NO,NO,True,True,368.61,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T16:48:24.180601Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Of course! That will be 750 dollars.,NO,YES,False,True,2644.2732,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-25T18:49:28.426838Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,because i bought 2590$ of yes at 0.15,YES,YES,True,True,4517.707,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-23T20:18:35.186702Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,If you thought I sold your retarded. Go look at the top 10 of carney no holders. Libs can¡¯t read a chart and are yappin,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-05-16T13:07:59.384981Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"It's a pity that instead of enjoying 2 extra hours of bliss, I had to bullshit with some Russians about nothing",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-22T20:05:43.946183Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,You know the expectation for this is to wait until after elections for $1 right? Lol not to sell at 0.30cents dor 28 cen,YES,YES,True,True,207.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T04:38:08.328643Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,crazy that uma used to be $40 a coin. now its less than a dollar. i wonder why....,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,27.5293,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T05:11:00.567151Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,im trying to go from an initial $100 to $1 million so far so good!,NO,YES,False,True,148.61,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-24T11:43:40.629748Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Yeah I saw that, it¡¯s also expected if you check the US one but I have my holdings here and another $300 w my boy so if",YES,YES,True,True,207.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-25T19:32:45.232561Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,dam you saw it dropp adn it didnt sell thats crazy i bought and saw it drop and then sold but then just bought back in f,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,4517.707,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T22:44:43.001446Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Actually, you won't get your 2 dollars tomorrow:)",NO,NO,True,True,133.0096,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T16:38:14.055221Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,i thought obama promised to close guantanamo? Strange it¡¯s still open,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T05:54:21.871119Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Oooo.. top holders down $3 million , $4million .. Maybe only if they knew that republicans are supressed on social media",YES,NO,False,True,185.0118,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-03-16T02:08:08.359879Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,TRUMP IS BOMBING THE HOUTHIS. NO IS A LOCK.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T09:26:59.119393Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Why would I cash out when it is a guaranteed win? If I cashed out now I would be losing out on ~$600,YES,YES,True,True,62062.4754,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +531929,2025-04-03T18:03:05.448588Z,Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?,he didnt make a single day in the past month without posting less than 35,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-23T08:06:06.729479Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Do people not understand how this works? Poilievre can go to 1 cent and Carney to 99 cents but when Pierre wins holders ,YES,YES,True,True,207.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T09:57:42.693401Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"just put $25k and walk away with $5m tomorrow, enough to buy yourself a new life, you deserve it sir.",NO,YES,False,True,403.61,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-24T01:37:12.062007Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,what do you have 40 dollars in the game ?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1557.13,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-09T23:11:53.063871Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,What are even talking about. ¡°Under water¡± lol I bought $400 of shares lol. I¡¯m holding till the end¡­.cause he¡¯s g,YES,NO,False,True,41.6674,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-08T19:05:56.860815Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,CSIS also stated that PP had no involvement or knowledge and would have not impacted the result. PP won in a landslide. ,YES,YES,True,True,4016.14,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-28T18:51:56.094157Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"Dude it¡¯s still uploading as we speak you keep see files added , I sold at 83c and I am happy with what I got ¡­ I seen",YES,YES,True,True,1.8,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-03T23:54:49.704419Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"And the day after $1. Well, it'll likely be disputed. But we'll get there.",YES,NO,False,True,15213.69,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537193,2025-05-21T19:43:15.316568Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,"After this resolves to YES, I will be donating $20 to the war victims",YES,YES,True,True,320.9356,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-01T06:03:35.442714Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,$9 to win $600. BTW where is your bet? Come on and take some FREE MONEY.,NO,YES,False,True,33.9584,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-01-04T13:47:01.456592Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,eeej to by bylo 200IQ zagranie jakby to tak dzialalo trzeba rules doczytac,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-26T09:39:00.183953Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"It was obvious manipulation, they changing rules as they want, cryptobetting apear to be another crypto scam. Bitconeeee",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-22T14:32:32.691619Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Polls hard to understand polls have gotten election wrong again it¡¯s not that easy to understand,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T19:14:02.916648Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Cant wait for my $1000 coming my way soon,NO,YES,False,True,74.13,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T20:50:06.607836Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,who the fuck is gambling 99.8k to make $200? why not put it in MSFT and wait like 2 seconds?,NO,NO,True,True,2.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-20T12:58:19.162967Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,They can vote for any crazy result and polymarket cant stop them,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-03-17T17:11:21.575703Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"I will, but i don't think you need my $500, which is 50% from winnings, if my side hits DD",NO,YES,False,True,1998.6382,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T17:34:04.815097Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,i know right? $1 can turn to 100$ EASILY!,YES,YES,True,True,3909.5785,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T15:33:46.084802Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"If Trump says ""he stopped/prevented the ban"" choas will take over, pretty much the only option for ""no"". I'm just here f",NO,YES,False,True,76.89,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552845,2025-06-23T22:54:21.619558Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,An Iranian official confirms that an agreement has been reached to stop the war between Iran and Israel https://x.com/Al,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T20:08:01.152063Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Number 1 YES holder betting $8.000.000 to win $15k? That¡¯s 100% insider from Polymarket who knows the 100% outcome. Nob,NO,NO,True,True,214.61,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T13:21:58.986355Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"ELEZIOR NO ONE GIVES A SOLITARY FUCK ABOUT YOUR ARGUMENTS, YOUR MONEY IS ALREADY LOST, YOU DONT EVEN KNOW HOW THE VOTING",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-19T04:44:28.251983Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I went to go vote today and it reminded me of when I got vaccinated (like a dumbass) liberals everywhere,NO,YES,False,True,723.84,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T21:40:47.482451Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,I sold and bought rafal to profit twice,YES,YES,True,True,4.481,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527883,2025-03-19T07:41:19.939728Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,Do your own research & jump in. 3 idiots decide the outcome of this market.. highly unpredictable,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-30T04:27:32.436306Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Allen lickballs is a deranged fool this year,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T22:31:08.963135Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,I will fight to the end for my $10!,YES,NO,False,True,9.89,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-28T18:23:09.563515Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,tomorrow u will crying ''why did i sold wuwuuuuwuu,YES,YES,True,True,1.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-18T21:37:31.792233Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"BREAKING: Trump is buying Buttcoin to hedge againsg Iran War, NYT reports",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-24T00:27:00.324113Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Polymarket is a SCAM. Im very happy to have this experience tho. I started playing around with the site, $10 here and th",NO,NO,True,True,245.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-09T19:50:42.750609Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Abacus made $600,000+ from the liberal Canadian government in 2023 alone. In 2024 their contracts were limited to only $",YES,YES,True,True,5300.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T00:11:57.303766Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"sure, you're about to lose $2.60",YES,NO,False,True,938.5521,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T23:20:54.089644Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,so who's gonna dispute and lose their $750,YES,NO,False,True,6999.8233,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T04:53:15.899291Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"You are one of the few who bought ""YES"" and who has a real name, all YES transactions are like bots, accounts without pr",NO,NO,True,True,4.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T14:08:01.447968Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,https://www.youtube.com/live/lGKaVqwTfLc carney speaking on the Vancouver attack,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T03:08:49.516652Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"miladymaker bought 20,000 No at 37.7c ($7,535)",NO,NO,True,True,137.8907,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-22T00:36:30.469458Z,US military action against Iran before August?,congratulations yes holders this was the most obvious bet in history,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554695,2025-06-23T18:21:43.676244Z,Another US military action against Iran by Monday?,ill just hold my shares bcs its 10 bucks at this point but i think youre massively coping,YES,NO,False,True,105.8351,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T01:49:06.396331Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,bluds getting pressed over $10... get a job lmfao,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,20.1,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T20:35:48.838616Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,I took no before this madness. I'm inclined to follow the smart money like yourself. Mostly negative pnl people screamin,NO,NO,True,True,125.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-05-12T17:55:50.822407Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"After that $50K loss SAtANTANGO took on the China deal before the June market, he¡¯s about to take a second hit--and the",YES,NO,False,True,200.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T18:14:02.388916Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Erasmus single handed pump to 99 cents incoming $1m buy,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,95150.2966,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T05:32:46.891233Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"About to sell my no, can anyone tell me a good place to throw my $40 recovered",NO,NO,True,True,159.39,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560539,2025-07-09T16:56:36.966805Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,Can someone buy my 21 shares for 20 dollars this shit will take 6-7 more days to resolve -_-,YES,NO,False,True,0.1175,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T20:20:12.052758Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Whatever helps you sleep tonight lmao, still couldn¡¯t come up with $5 to even throw on Mark Carney I see bahahaha",YES,NO,False,True,1036.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T21:31:21.975864Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,P2 and P4 are votes for UMA. P2 means market resolves in Yes and P4 means we get to wait until December 31st,NO,YES,False,True,946.9086,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-18T00:15:39.227265Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"I know everybody is anxious right now, I am too, so I decided instead of waiting around, I would take things into my own",NO,NO,True,True,104.1639,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-01-26T13:26:58.897635Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"Naa, didnt mitigate my losses. I bought more than I am willing to risk when it was below 30ct essentially because of gre",YES,NO,False,True,27125.399,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T14:36:52.315956Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"True. Also, Russia never invaded Ukraine, it was just Special Military Operation.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T15:56:54.921241Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Wow, you're going to increase that big $60 position. At this rate you'll need to buy $59 more just to maintain you posi",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,176.41,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T13:20:04.182476Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"nobody bet based on that bullshit website, everyone knows its unreliable, especially if they keep showing opposite resul",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552845,2025-06-24T08:37:07.397381Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,I don¡¯t know if that¡¯s true but if it is it most definitely should not be and Polymarket should face lawsuits,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +534135,2025-04-07T13:39:07.729851Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?,why is a huge difference in the actual share price and the price of seeling. for example i bought YES shares at 62 cents,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,408.97,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T23:48:47.941107Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"0x3B2AF86252922... bought 298,747 No at 0.3 ($1,000) . THANK YOU FOR THE DONATION",YES,NO,False,True,611.9598,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-25T05:23:16.560746Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Awfully confident for what forecasters all have as a coin toss.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-27T15:44:06.385388Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Not at all. Buddy, I hold a degree in statistics. This is the easiest money I have earned in my life.",NO,NO,True,True,2116.89,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T05:43:38.679732Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,I sent you 5 bucks to almost triple your no stack,NO,NO,True,True,391.3846,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T23:54:40.179432Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,I don't care if i lost 10 dollars hhaahah i would be stupid if i didnt trie,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,14.118,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-26T03:44:35.461508Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,3hrs of rogan was the final tombstone piledriver for the harris campaign. The disintegration of a terrible candidate is ,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T02:41:29.218901Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Clarification got leaked: ""As per the rules, the greater geographic Golan Heights will count as Israeli territory. For t",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T03:43:10.041869Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,tip me $1000 i am hungry :C jhaja,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,266.772,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-19T18:55:42.628502Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"If they attack on July 1st, I want to laugh my ass off at the yes-men here.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T17:04:36.656982Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I went in yesterday at 35. Because I knew the facts. The bet was resolved. You didn't listen.,YES,YES,True,True,38.7139,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527883,2025-03-25T20:49:46.530902Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,Polymarket cant change the Rules WTF,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T23:40:09.416191Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Tip me 1 dollar if ur not gay lmao,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,14.118,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-26T20:31:01.638227Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I can¡¯t imagine being so deluded lol,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-28T12:44:49.055333Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"@yeehaw Man, I think you sent me $2 two times, I feel like a hobo who's being sprayed by dollar bills from a window of a",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,9.7176,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-02T03:13:28.318073Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"Can anyone help me, I lost 3.2k on polish elections, because I voted for Polish Dan and rightards stole the election. Pl",YES,NO,False,True,189.0837,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-28T16:11:43.052714Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,I had never heard of Lord Miles. I Bought 5 shares because I am one of those people who mistakenly thought the fast mean,NO,YES,False,True,3.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T20:57:19.416565Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"im also not a big fan of nawrocki as a president, but im making money here not showing my political opinions",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T16:15:00.161352Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Wolk has to spread FUD full time when he is -$3,441.12 (-60.62%)",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,302.0599,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T21:20:54.637638Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,But $10 is like a coffee cup in your country so whatever.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,6372.0104,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T21:10:32.799971Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,your current value is 8 dollars 82 cents lil bro,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,104.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-16T14:29:10.097494Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The economy is somehow a winning issue for Trump.. and yet: 1?? Trump's tariffs will cause inflation 2?? Trump's $8 tril,NO,NO,True,True,112.0758,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-27T00:14:43.457865Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,send me $50 and ill dispute promise,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1247.0209,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T03:47:38.316202Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Alberta would be landlocked lol it aint going anywhere.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-11T15:50:59.304414Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"JD vance, our vice president is very likely to be our next president. It may be worth the risk because Canada has had 10",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-21T00:04:45.626724Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,He will make tiny homes with all the banned plastic straws,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T01:15:23.383889Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,imagine buying a $5003 expired lottery ticket,YES,NO,False,True,2228.1454,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-17T21:01:10.570346Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"according to yes holder, US has been bombing for days now",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-29T09:04:28.549541Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,if trump wins i¡¯m fine with losing $30. if he loses I¡¯ll take the $100 to buy myself a bottle of grey goose,NO,NO,True,True,34.15,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T22:38:34.197234Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,@Alexparker only an artiste will understand why I went against you.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,139.616,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T17:09:58.122307Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kamala was installed not voted for ???? Democrat party is garbage,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T22:29:15.296349Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,guys i could make 1Mil but im only gonna make 600 dollars please someone tip me 1 dollar haha,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,13.128,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T23:18:42.655457Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,bro having $12k in bank is not poor?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,493.37,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T05:44:33.114624Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Could someone slide anything over so I can buy?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-27T20:49:37.411096Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Hey, PSYCHO. Just take your L and move on!! You about to lose that 15k and then cry in the corner, It's over yo.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-03-26T18:02:26.273839Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,still he was a conservative. There are different types of conservatives.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T22:29:30.301777Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Glad I sold a couple hours ago...it's vague at best,NO,NO,True,True,21.6568,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T14:35:41.993093Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Who can give me 10 dollars for trump victory?,YES,YES,True,True,24.45,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-20T17:00:41.468708Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"lol, well seen means disrespected, treated with arrogance, bowing to every European politician, a man who tried to come ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-24T18:47:14.699571Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"hopefully youll get that 10 dollar profit, besides that i think we can agree that most of the yes votes were already raf",YES,NO,False,True,14.9712,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-26T21:35:18.073788Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Carney is a banker. He is countering his 100 dollar bills and laughing most of the time while relaxing at home,YES,NO,False,True,506.3,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-01T22:31:52.255667Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,say that to the S&P500 record growth this year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._economic_performance_by_presidential_p,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T23:45:30.817669Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,is $500 a lot? is it worth how ever many hours you have spent keeping up with this? Like literally working another job w,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,302.0733,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T03:29:41.703524Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Yes like every pp holder is Canadian lol,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T07:21:14.173111Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,i just tipped $1 to belgamus hahaha,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,900.3152,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T21:11:56.212407Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Nah it's probs a Market Maker that is hedged. They are set just to resolve at $1.,NO,NO,True,True,428.9,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T12:50:51.460654Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"¡°I like to make the final decision one second before it¡¯s due,¡± Trump said in the Oval Office. ¡°Especially with war,",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-25T18:19:07.246986Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,No chance. She already got two more SS gents to guard her because she is afraid DEMOCRATS will assassinate her and repla,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-17T09:36:01.512004Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Bentsen has nine not one chance,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T00:36:15.961343Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,This market is quickly growing and will likely be at $25M cap by Dec 31st. That means many eyes will be on it. I haven't,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,50.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-20T14:46:30.480394Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"You bought 11,115.2 shares at $0.02 and say that¡¯s a scam?",NO,NO,True,True,1.002,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T14:42:11.984299Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"i dont care about my $5, will stay till the end xD",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,20.203,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T02:25:06.456212Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Easiest money of my life, can't wait for tomorrow. Quick reminder for those holding YES: TikTok took their services down",NO,NO,True,True,45.4,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-04-19T21:04:32.743594Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"Ah, I bought it in such a hurry like a fool.",YES,NO,False,True,89.26,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T17:47:26.792732Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"i bought at 39 --it is old news ""Israeli troops to stay in Syria beyond buffer zone"" here is the link: 2 - https://bbc.",NO,NO,True,True,38.4189,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T02:28:49.185399Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"YOU'RE CLUELESS, YOU'RE LITERALLY BETTING $2975 FOR $3006 TOTAL. THAT'S $31 PROFIT ON $2975!!!!!!!!!",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,380.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-12T14:41:42.820068Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,better to lose 66 bucks than 8.7k lmaoooo,YES,NO,False,True,348.8449,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T22:02:21.176801Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,would you believe it started with a $450 bet at 80c,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1896.64,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T04:58:49.412783Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"i want to say that i think they ""yes"" people are right. i but $1k on no stupidly. then did research. tiktok is about to ",NO,YES,False,True,585.3995,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T10:21:32.506066Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,do you hate him because you're $7500 down?,YES,NO,False,True,34.45,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-09-11T01:27:07.005996Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,ROFLMAO! Of COURSE now that you see he's losing you'll claim it was RIGGED. You fucking crybaby.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T21:03:06.499469Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Renet sold 3,951 Yes at 67.8c ($2,680)",NO,NO,True,True,815.4339,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-08-28T20:24:11.924212Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"I did, but I sold them, because he wasnt actually exposed to the desert heat as he promised before the fast started.",NO,NO,True,True,417.44,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T16:07:05.462455Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,you mean women pro immigrants and crime?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-21T07:16:18.961747Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Poll shows LPC is maintaining vote efficiency, comfortable majority",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T06:37:03.971672Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,can someone send 10 dollars i wanna gamble on israel iran,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,3.9846,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T13:10:11.986114Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,You can fake the results by simply voting online unlimited times on incognito,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T21:16:56.329202Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,With 22 bucks ? What a joke hahahahaha,NO,NO,True,True,118.4549,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-28T10:29:39.680647Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"hot diggity, we still got replies. I sent you a $1!",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,965.0158,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T16:41:01.946354Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"just put $25k, wait for Trump to put executive order, walk away tomorrow with $1.2M",NO,YES,False,True,388.61,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T10:54:00.175802Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"I only have like $150 in, which should rightly convert into my correct winnings but im more than happy to lose it tempor",NO,NO,True,True,123.69,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-19T05:32:51.066751Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,eCash hilariously panic sold Yes and now holding No. funny to see lose money both ways,YES,NO,False,True,2011.5316,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-29T15:49:57.404519Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,bro ur profit/loss is at $0 what are you yapping about,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,34.45,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T14:30:52.709409Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,bernard if you win don¡¯t forget to bless me i¡¯m negative and have lost all my money gambling if you don¡¯t bless me i ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,15.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-28T18:31:27.391762Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"Your wrong, he got $30k from transaction fees, he did not scam people for it!",YES,NO,False,True,342.9771,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +555752,2025-07-08T19:00:09.649598Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,Posting links might get you comment banned thats why I added the Gap to avoid the hyperlinks to be detected. Also I doub,YES,NO,False,True,4485.4529,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-04-19T22:18:27.375006Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,people might wanna check the end date,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T09:40:08.753848Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Yes holders attempted to use intimidation to get me to sell and insulted me for wasting money. But now my shares have ap,YES,NO,False,True,377.2675,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527883,2025-03-30T13:19:30.690167Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,lol all your replies are so full of projection. Keep seething and coping you worthless incel trash HAHAHA,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-08-29T16:26:52.563155Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,nice man you are doing very well,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T13:16:44.499777Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"I bought another ""no"", it will be a victory",NO,NO,True,True,24.92,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T23:08:06.808292Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,You so broke u can only afford 100 bucks of carney shares trying to laugh at people gambling with real money. Just go si,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1343.34,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T20:12:03.682875Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Creepy lowlife scammer spent 6k to earn 30 dollars and traded 400k w a profit of 2000 but is trying to stalk me and tell,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,5.24,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-18T11:46:56.472695Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,alright I went from small (2k) Yes holder to selling everything now all in on Yes. Why? Because he is still more incenti,YES,YES,True,True,2011.5316,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T06:54:43.127628Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Sell your stocks and invest in some reading comprehension lessons instead,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-03-29T08:06:19.037895Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,buddy has $100 thinks he's warren buffet,YES,NO,False,True,791.0612,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T01:25:15.332761Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,LUTAOTAO 45.6K Yes 7s ago ALERT: This Market is Being Manipulated! Yes holders Take Action! Please repost this comment,YES,YES,True,True,163.944,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-18T19:05:35.613366Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I bought like $200 more and it hasn¡¯t shown up on my activity. Was like 2hrs ago is that weird?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,789.89,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-18T06:26:07.366974Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"Someone selling 20000 dollars for 77c each, probably forgot to remove his order",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,271.0668,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T02:34:34.458596Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"4m volume, he can sell and maybe that pushes the price up $2 - 3, no biggie.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,137.8907,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T16:13:25.983526Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,I wish i bought more last night,NO,YES,False,True,617.93,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-28T09:13:25.300678Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Be sure to tell the people I'm a man of my word. Anyone else wanna $1 tip?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,965.0158,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T22:15:27.684478Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,What if the traitor Jagmeet Singh once again forms a coalition with Liberals to make Carney the PM? That would screw all,YES,NO,False,True,1651.94,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T00:16:06.080801Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel could nuke Syria, but unless UMA thinks Israel established control beyond Golan Heights this will never resolve i",NO,NO,True,True,106.8076,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T01:57:30.108628Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Given it's $750 per proposal, and it's unlikely to get through if there's no new development, it's economically viable o",NO,NO,True,True,189.2161,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T20:00:03.156242Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,UMA valued at $160m relies on accurate resolving,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,456.71,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T22:41:33.691854Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,I'm asking because there was a case where the price for no was $0.55 and when I typed $1050 it said avg price $0.69,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,207000.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T21:03:49.762601Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"doesnt mean it factually accurate, the rules were extremely vague and misrespented. If i had known the market was contro",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,320.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T22:31:39.019738Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,If i win i could finally afford a new 100dollar iphone:),NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.001,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T17:05:01.150142Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Good thing your mom isn¡¯t the arbiter of the resolution criteria?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-17T15:06:48.008589Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"F U TRUMP, let's see you climb your ass out of this one",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T09:15:27.600967Z,US military action against Iran before August?,gonna change my twitter bio to consensus of credible reporting,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-04-19T22:44:03.408135Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"Welp, that sit with polymarket seemingly this fuckers want another FBI raid lmao",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-02T00:41:09.772458Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"Le Pen in France, Weidel in Germany, we can save Europe",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T10:38:10.283603Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Can I buy lambo with my $4 investment?,YES,NO,False,True,2.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-02T01:52:08.102608Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Polonia si a scos banana din cur. Romania o are pana in gat. Felicitari.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T02:42:29.604728Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,What Dumb Murder Forker wasted $500 and is keeping me from 4/10 of a penny per share?,YES,NO,False,True,2240.0135,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T00:42:40.054626Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,deposited 50 dollars in ethereum only got 23. great site! 10/10,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,28.18,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-23T15:57:41.263801Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"""bleeding money"" if losing 20% of 200 bucks is bleeding money to you",YES,NO,False,True,220.7387,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T17:26:31.111694Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"i bought at 39 it is old news ""Israeli troops to stay in Syria beyond buffer zone"" here is the link: 2 - https://bbc.com",NO,NO,True,True,38.4189,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-19T04:38:21.336673Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Kamala Harris¡¯ peak on polymarket was 53% and that only lasted for a few days. Not comparable.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-06-02T13:01:02.371271Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"The negotiations have ended. Hopefully, Russia will agree to withdraw from the Ukraine and there will be a ceasefire",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-04-03T09:57:22.614046Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Another $3 Andy trying to talk lol,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,59.7011,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T15:41:02.277192Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,But you send it and said that this is unofficial and now when the results are not good you are saying that it is not tru,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T08:15:26.924475Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I find it funny the new top trump holder casually has 12 million on trump and than he has a random 10 dollar bet,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,3792.51,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-20T14:19:34.624434Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,lol I don't care I only had 5 shares,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-28T07:49:37.890652Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,FYI all. Gather together for my announcement. On day 20 of Lord Miles fast he decided to use his laptop on stream. Curio,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T05:46:07.786414Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kommie will not speak tonight. Chicken shit,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T07:56:40.562216Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"i boguth i sold, i bought, i sold, and i bought again haha",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,213.5211,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T21:54:27.878925Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kommiela down the toilet once again. Keep on losing real money komrades.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T08:42:06.046102Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,TikTok will be back in no time.,NO,NO,True,True,184.3117,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-28T03:25:10.210349Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,A vote for Kamala is a vote for Peace,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-03-24T02:00:14.462397Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Just 2 days ago Carney was 22% above Poilievre, now he's only 4% above Poilievre, why?",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T20:37:18.016501Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Holding No forever, otherwise, it¡¯s not gambling.",NO,NO,True,True,842.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T18:22:03.862159Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The IDF advanced towards the Al-Dimas area in the southern Damascus countryside, along the Lebanese border.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T19:41:15.875873Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,imagine thinking rallies matter. ty for the free $30k,NO,NO,True,True,72042.71,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T21:52:12.539587Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,0 dollars bets get the fuck outta this platform,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,349.1381,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T04:24:19.412224Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Is there a market for tomorrow to get disputed and uma whales will swing the vote their way? I¡¯ll throw $100 at it.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,21.745,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T03:32:31.888948Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Lol as of roght now my 212 bucks will make me almost 12k,NO,YES,False,True,218.35,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T18:45:41.249507Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,jesus christ this man is gonna make $150k off of an already resolved market. Oh to have $10M in the bank,YES,NO,False,True,997.89,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-25T11:25:30.069234Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,lol you have $0 bet be rude to pick up these odds get a job or hobby and place a bet or stop commenting on every post,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T21:13:36.877772Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,New to Polymarket. The other tiktok ban market had $241k volume this one is at $18.3m. Does the volume affect how heavy ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,159.39,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-26T03:46:34.021815Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Only true if they are being sold for $1.01,NO,NO,True,True,3059.4067,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T20:48:44.150062Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,for lunch you bet $3k people are so dumb nowdays,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,493.37,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-22T18:41:14.241664Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"im just being honest, even i bought yes, i don't think he will come back, 100% from my heart",YES,NO,False,True,1864.23,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T00:37:58.947825Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"every serious no holder is just delusional. Im only holding no for the free money, im gonna switch sides. All those capt",NO,YES,False,True,86.5808,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T18:14:56.012094Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,i bought no for $500 hope everything goes good lol,NO,NO,True,True,493.37,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T16:34:38.031496Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,"official now that they're going to guam, from guam the b2's can strike within iran without needing a air refueling, its ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T22:08:24.457695Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"losing by 400,000 in PA is now winning according to the MAGAts",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T17:41:35.036403Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I worked with carney on solving world hunger problem. Our final solution is simple but effective: people should eat thei,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-18T19:41:26.669304Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Agreed. When I went to California I was like ¡°it¡¯s like Canada with palm trees and deserts¡± ?? I¡¯d move to the US b,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,592.6724,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-19T19:58:02.731325Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Liaison is total corrupt dogshit. They were paid $7 million by the Liberals and are spamming polls every day to drag the,YES,NO,False,True,42.5952,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T04:15:43.859885Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The election is over. Trump is running out of paths to 270. He must win 1. Pennsylvania 2. Michigan 3. Wisconsin 4. Virg,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T22:48:32.755185Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Set a limit buy at $0.55. Your order will only get filled at that price,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10811.9531,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T19:35:20.666266Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"I sold my No's for a profit, now i switched to yes, and im gaining now",YES,YES,True,True,9.0526,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T13:34:04.122969Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,You guys are weird! Time to bridge in $500k.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T11:06:55.111261Z,US military action against Iran before August?,'President Trump gives Iran more time to seek diplomacy' mentioning '2 weeks max',YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-25T00:57:01.663141Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Kamala has one last gasp up to $0.45, then down to zero for good.",NO,NO,True,True,2006.149,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-21T03:36:04.910008Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Justifax is down 99% ($6000) thinking Canada will have another coalition government¡­ IDIOT,YES,NO,False,True,505.84,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T19:48:42.943523Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,cuz it costs like 1 dollar mate,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,182.7597,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-25T23:43:23.359804Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,i went crazy fuck it letss goooooooo,YES,YES,True,True,14501.697,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T22:55:31.372001Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,bye guys and why alex not selling i dont know and uma will say yes because these people buying at $1 price are gonna ric,NO,NO,True,True,493.37,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T19:45:54.016004Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Another account which is holding No and is a new account just dropped 2k on No. Well. well. well.,NO,NO,True,True,61.0706,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T19:52:12.782785Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"You should go take a walk, you have better chances of finding $200 on the ground and you won't lose anything.",YES,NO,False,True,209.13,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T08:33:46.783423Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,it will solve in yes matter of time people tryna manipulate it.,YES,YES,True,True,11032.9405,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-23T00:57:30.556558Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,$130B budget and that's coming out of your wallet dumb ass,YES,NO,False,True,490.5,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-25T06:46:00.971252Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,-$172 Free money for MAGA indeed,YES,YES,True,True,13316.3852,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T12:26:54.492114Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Sorry, mate. Maybe for you $200 is so much money that losing it feels like ending your life, but that¡¯s not my case. Th",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,213.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T09:43:17.593841Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Wait no whahahah 3.4 dollars. I can¡¯t math,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,56.5807,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T00:12:52.818248Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"so you need like 10m UMA to rig this vote, $35m or so?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,456.71,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-19T15:25:57.703046Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I could only afford like $60 right now but at least I'm in! Let's gooo!,YES,YES,True,True,64.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +555752,2025-07-09T16:56:36.966805Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,Can someone buy my 21 shares for 20 dollars this shit will take 6-7 more days to resolve -_-,NO,NO,True,True,11.74,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-21T12:58:58.001314Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"in warsaw you can field anyone from PO and he will definitely win, even the weakest one",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T21:42:49.593483Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Anything I say, you won't believe anyways... There's literally no point lol.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-02T01:44:52.040272Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"i'd say that was expected, polish people as a nation are dumb as fck. we're so cooked",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T03:47:01.013622Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"I am risking dust for $12,000.",NO,YES,False,True,244.18,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-02T06:58:22.226678Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"bought what? $254 worth? so you havent bought then, stop capping",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,381.8033,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-18T13:02:23.183899Z,US military action against Iran before August?,I'm more confident that this will resolve YES than my sexuality,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T20:42:13.504125Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,I hope this becomes yes just so the people who bet 600 bucks like me don¡¯t make hundreds of thousands while I¡¯m stuck ,NO,YES,False,True,627.41,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-03-30T23:58:54.787459Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I¡¯m ¡°beating¡± for Canada. If you know what I mean¡­,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-29T16:39:07.659527Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Cant believe I put 10 bucks on this scam market. Thats like almost 2 mcchickens. Def filing a complaint with sec!,YES,NO,False,True,10.64,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-05T00:16:29.158479Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,If I put 10 dollars. I¡¯d win 10k. Do we ball?,NO,YES,False,True,3.1926,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T23:08:34.206445Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,you only have 101 shares of No at $0.01. We all know you're a Yes holder.,NO,NO,True,True,170.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-18T16:46:46.425862Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"If Trumps helps Netanyahu to assassinate the supreme Leader, is that a yes or a no?",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T11:55:47.428224Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"because RonDeStantis own $1M worth of ""yes"" shares But he can't sell them because if he does then he end up with only $9",NO,YES,False,True,273.61,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T07:35:52.419183Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Bro yes is at 100% if you have bet on yes it's pointless to hold more just sell and maybe if you want put some in no,NO,NO,True,True,3.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-26T14:14:05.885911Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,my yes shares are up 23% and i am now gona liquidate my position. is what i would've said if i was a bitch,YES,YES,True,True,179.74,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T09:08:59.921131Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"ShalomOni bought 1,150 Yes at 87.0 ($1,000)",NO,YES,False,True,35.9721,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T15:58:25.543866Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Okay my 10:1 joke-to-serious comment has hit again. Seriously guys I am genuinely urging you not to fall for all this b,YES,YES,True,True,5960.3508,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-01T09:10:51.430913Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Unfortunately i think the market might resolve in Yes since there is a written agreement between the two parties. I thin,NO,YES,False,True,345.4744,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T11:19:33.125983Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"it would mean ""too early to tell"", not ""no"". there is time for a ban to happen, the dispute is if it did or did not happ",NO,NO,True,True,161.8991,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T23:04:55.890575Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,you're in profit just put some of it in no my dude,NO,NO,True,True,12.0104,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T21:28:44.130556Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,newfies havent voted conservative since 1984 you are retarded if you think that welfare province is flipping holy fuck y,NO,NO,True,True,72042.71,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-17T16:27:09.515346Z,US military action against Iran before August?,He still has over 5k yes combined in this. He keeps trading it because it is so volatile to posts on x/truth social.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-26T04:51:32.123215Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"not just 1 game lol, i new i will buy few games, but right now the chance of him coming back is 50 50, my fear is he the",YES,NO,False,True,1470.6388,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-19T06:19:09.159593Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"on btclc 1,75x Nawrocki 1,90x Trashkowski still good price here",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T03:50:59.870476Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"@ELEZIOR-TV What¡¯s the purpose of spending this $8,000? Your follower count hasn¡¯t increased at all. I didn¡¯t follow ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,9345.0634,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-28T03:14:36.057456Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,you have $3.5 into YES shares but you say this must go to NO ? ... youre the karen that keeps asking for the manager at ,YES,NO,False,True,19141.8432,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T03:07:49.641376Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"SyrianRebble bought 5,280 No at 37.9c ($2,000)",NO,NO,True,True,137.8907,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-19T17:09:22.301502Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"Don't be a coward! MAGA, go fight on the battlefield! WE DESPERATELY NEED THE USA TO ENTER THE WAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +534135,2025-04-06T17:57:56.546671Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?,yea we are f ggot but we make money and also we told you,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T00:28:24.457718Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Holy shit, then what if you tip me 5 bucks and I`ll tip you back when we win",NO,YES,False,True,33.16,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T16:27:44.884781Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,This would destroy poly reputation 100 x more than $12M,NO,NO,True,True,3032.9047,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T15:05:35.403258Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"17m tokens commited to the vote, thats what, $60m doing nothing",YES,NO,False,True,456.71,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T23:31:55.679642Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,BUY MORE YES AND WON $0.0000001,NO,YES,False,True,130.61,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-20T22:13:10.203192Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,whoever wins has to send me $1000 atleast.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,15.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-06T22:29:48.271876Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,I opened the files on video too lmao,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-17T00:36:48.747475Z,US military action against Iran before August?,At this point no one knows whats going to happen,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T06:49:42.542609Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"RonDeStantis sold 1,418 Yes at 98.6 ($1,399)",NO,NO,True,True,1153.16,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:36:31.515432Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Will there be $1.00 or it's ok to sell now?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,32190.31,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-24T05:52:38.024047Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Guys my degen side took over I bought more,YES,YES,True,True,3740.63,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-01T16:52:15.782111Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"WE Charity? $900M to Trudeau¡¯s pals. ArriveCAN? Supposed to cost $80K, hit $60M. COVID funds? Hundreds of mils to buddi",YES,YES,True,True,3498.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-02-18T17:07:07.994228Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"""It¡¯s like taking money from the blind, almost feels criminal.""",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-19T17:46:20.978535Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"July market is a no, i sold very nicely",YES,NO,False,True,3.9592,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-19T23:00:18.824979Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,They add contradictory additional remarks to scam you everywhere,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T19:02:17.246058Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Ouch. Bought 72,413 No at 0.7 ($500)",YES,NO,False,True,110.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T21:28:43.038384Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Truly feel bad for all the NO holders who have been scammed by the pump and dumpers in the comments section last week or,YES,NO,False,True,14905.0029,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T04:25:37.956716Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Yea I see this now. Man, if I had $10,000 on mark carney yes in hopes to win $2000. I would be super scared right now",YES,NO,False,True,906.3296,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T11:09:47.683934Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"good opportunity for a small no buy, just got in at $0.02",NO,NO,True,True,99.85,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T04:30:33.449728Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"MCGA not listening, keep calling him fat and retarded and hitin dat juul",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-29T17:18:53.552329Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"You didn't even read Carney resume, retard.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T16:20:29.630409Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Bro my 10 dollar is gonna be 600,NO,YES,False,True,13.128,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-19T10:04:43.889709Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"Miles made +$30k in fees from his Solana coin, he's just recycling those funds to buy the bids on Polymarket after fakin",YES,NO,False,True,200.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-03-02T15:46:01.540758Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"maybe just because low liquidity, on news today it will go up, because there won't be any WW3 :D",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-19T18:01:12.792369Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,didnt the law literally go into effect? can NO holders read rules?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T22:08:27.695238Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Amen brother, one yes guy commenting is literally trying to make $4 Lmaoo dude needs to gfhs",NO,NO,True,True,409.5157,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537193,2025-05-19T15:03:47.804275Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,Vance canceled trip to Israel causw no ceasefire. All reputable sources say no agreement. Netanyahu saying he will take ,NO,NO,True,True,3686.32,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-17T21:45:55.285403Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"UPDATE: U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was hospitalized after suffering an allergic reaction, according to",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T11:15:13.657117Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,I bet you wishing you have more money than 6bucks to lose on this nonsense,NO,NO,True,True,598.752,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-05-19T19:02:01.128565Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,3 retardes! Putin Zels and McDuck,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T21:20:09.439617Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,These yes idiots are not even making money they just wanna stat their pads like it¡¯s some cod ranking smh can¡¯t wait t,NO,NO,True,True,83.51,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-06T09:29:03.669886Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,More bad news for naworcki KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA: 33% (+2) PiS-ECR: 29% (-3) Kon-ESN|PfE: 16% (+1) TD PL2050/PSL-RE|EPP: 10% (,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T01:11:50.413159Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Can you buy 15k more? I will trade you $30 for it.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,6153.7579,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T02:11:27.186203Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,The dumbest unheard of lib mp steals more than that on expenses,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T17:47:39.366668Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,"It is clear that this is a very difficult decision for Iran, which will essentially lead to total war and the fall of th",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552845,2025-06-23T22:30:42.910906Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,Don't listen to people who were wrong on the Iran market before lmfao,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-03-29T01:35:28.125923Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,It's not worth commenting any more. We all fucked. Canada will officially stay a shithole now,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T12:15:48.265451Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"too late, but it's funny that you believe you'll win thousands with $10 vs. million-dollar whale positions",NO,NO,True,True,580.5407,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T14:13:52.571628Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"u guys know what crazy m,,, i bought only 1$ ,, and if no win i won 76$ lmao ez pz",NO,YES,False,True,1.24,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T02:33:21.388305Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I invested $10 learn to count before you learn to speak,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.3,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T21:19:28.546289Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,You might be right. I won't sell. It's like 100 bucks. I know I'm in the right. Fuck them. If they don't do the right th,NO,YES,False,True,118.4549,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T16:08:04.570053Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"risk: $170k / profit: -$900, man you're in for a surprise",NO,NO,True,True,724.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T21:07:59.507638Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,FrancisSP8 confirmed what I'd suspected; that PM briefly reset the market as it issued the clarification. Just never see,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T16:31:48.529528Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,just put $25k and walk away tomorrow with $1.4M...,NO,YES,False,True,388.61,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-05T18:56:24.021488Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,@justifax lets do a personal bet we can put the money in a escrow account and see who wins the election because i person,YES,YES,True,True,5323.62,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T17:04:12.330617Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,What if the traitor Jagmeet Singh once again forms a coalition with Liberals to make Carney the PM? That would screw all,YES,NO,False,True,1651.94,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T00:08:20.392611Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I sold a little to buy the Ontario market haha it¡¯s too juicy,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,500.5077,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T13:13:49.404762Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Melania Sold 13,563 No at 30.3 ($4,116)",YES,NO,False,True,28855.1091,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-20T19:30:58.347363Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,To landlines. Which only boomers use,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T11:42:15.762284Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"just put a measly $700 on no, will come back when i make a quarter mill",NO,NO,True,True,724.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T14:13:46.314813Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,He knows how to make $1m overnight,YES,YES,True,True,380.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T03:03:49.105028Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,only 48 hours to get a free $65! not bad!,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,5886.0151,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560539,2025-07-09T11:26:10.484588Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"Idk you have to ask him, I'll tell you a fact about bunnies for 10 dollars though",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.1175,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-18T00:21:03.384688Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Sorry, retard here. Now that the supreme court supported the TikTok ban 9-0, what are the no holders hoping for?",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-18T21:27:08.873806Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Bro u have $5 in profit to ur name. Put the fries in the bag bro and let grown folks work,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,5544.94,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T22:49:35.021742Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Let's do a quick poll. If you think YES will win, tip me $1. If you think NO will win, tip me $0.99.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,45.42,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-09-14T06:10:10.268409Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Reporter: What are your specific plans to bring down prices? Kamala: ""I grew up a middle class kid... I grew up in a ne",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-24T10:01:51.385063Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Will be story about drugs against trza planned by Karol team,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T21:50:19.014568Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,why they send hella planes if they aint gonna do any explosions???,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-02T00:22:09.737805Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,GUYS IM OUT. GONNA TAKE MY LAST 100 DOLLAR AND GET A BJ FOR A STREET WALKER,YES,NO,False,True,2954.5954,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T02:25:20.428885Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,It¡¯s honestly cringe and embarrassing that not 1 of them have even thrown $10 on Carney since their so ¡°confident¡± lm,YES,NO,False,True,1036.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T14:25:57.851772Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"if I was a ""yes"" guy I would definitely sell before RonDeStantis does it (this guy has a $1M worth of ""yes"" shares but h",NO,YES,False,True,343.61,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-28T12:18:33.514691Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Is the tips still open or has the ship sailed? ( id like to get started,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +510319,2025-03-03T11:12:00.517882Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"Zelenskyy comments about timeline for ending the war: ""still very, very far away. No real steps in this direction have b",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T10:06:57.501381Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"First of all not only i dont believe in terrorists, but also i am sure that israel agrees under Biden pressure but they ",NO,NO,True,True,1.91,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-28T16:33:49.914738Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,So wow. Much brave. Enjoy the $1 profit.,YES,NO,False,True,103.83,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552845,2025-06-24T04:15:44.763562Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,Breaked ceasefire in only 12 minutes lmao,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T02:11:16.015576Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,genuinely why would most of us be scared of losing a max of $50 to $100. It¡¯s a gamble most of us are seeing is pretty ,NO,NO,True,True,50.4489,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T00:49:11.794492Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Yea, Taylor Swift is about to propose to me any day now.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T01:41:39.251752Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"For this market, 22m UMA is committed, UMA is priced at $2.5. The maths is in Whale's favor (easy manipulation). LOL",NO,NO,True,True,1412.8886,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T04:18:59.925661Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Even if you think you're right, learn not to be a smartass. Don't go against every news headline in the world next time",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-16T23:35:44.153026Z,US military action against Iran before August?,Israel's Channel 14 is reporting that US forces are bombing Iran,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T04:30:00.583976Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,How does that even make sense when I could lose $1400 and now even care and you¡¯re to scared to even lose $10 lmaoooo b,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1036.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T00:10:44.845174Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,For a total of $7.90? No thanks lol,NO,NO,True,True,48.85,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T22:28:35.384483Z,US military action against Iran before August?,Highly unusual for that attention craving narcissist.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T21:28:14.771404Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Lmaoooo look at you trying to cope for not eben being able to afford $10 lmaoooooo,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1036.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-28T17:23:22.669511Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,You are going to lose your $1 ser jeet,YES,NO,False,True,16569.3,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-18T21:44:40.319768Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Learn to read guys. Per cnn article the NSD is handling the redactions - extremely bearish for yes, they always withhold",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T22:58:09.051975Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Paj1c is a shill. He bought only 101 shares of No at $0.01. He's a Yes buyer.,NO,NO,True,True,170.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560187,2025-09-29T00:33:06.257657Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Ouch! @mjO lost almost $100k on this. All of his prior gains wiped out.,NO,NO,True,True,2030.096,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T16:25:52.332397Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"I think its operational delays and verification. Nothing else. And the fact that there was another bet on ""Tiktok banned",NO,NO,True,True,146.05,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-05-05T16:07:06.645401Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,I wish luck but Poland trza is stable also nawroxki constant controversy,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T21:42:13.258603Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,that's certainly one way to get to -$750!,YES,NO,False,True,14905.0029,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T14:12:06.486258Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,educate yourself before u feel like ur making a valid point,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T15:21:01.966202Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,easiest 600 dollars in my life,NO,YES,False,True,13.128,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T10:49:31.978318Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,i lost 10 dollars on this shit XD,NO,NO,True,True,12.0323,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T03:07:37.661505Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"SyrianRebble sold 5,515 Yes at 62.8c ($3,465)",NO,NO,True,True,137.8907,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T17:37:24.708931Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Instead of selling at $1 to make 100x gains? Shows conviction I guess,YES,NO,False,True,8839.6153,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T09:56:12.608711Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Yes holders attempted to use intimidation to get me to sell and insulted me for wasting money. But now my shares have ap,NO,NO,True,True,280.121,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T17:17:30.289875Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,When Israel almost DID NOT invade Syria.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T02:09:23.848757Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"It says if banned from download resolved in yes but it also says if not mandated by us law, court system or policy then ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,598.68,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-20T03:53:32.126515Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,Bro are you mentally challenged?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537193,2025-05-29T19:02:26.987554Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,"come on bro you only had $40 on it, buy back in and stay for the ride",NO,YES,False,True,553.76,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T03:36:42.100337Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"coming from a guy who has a -$22,000 P/L LOSER!",YES,NO,False,True,423.5545,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-18T22:21:50.379326Z,US military action against Iran before August?,going to sleep now is like sleeping on the battlefield while war,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T20:53:25.307032Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,@HolyMoses7 You bet $7.8k to make $24. You should not be talking about other people's bet bro,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,61.0706,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-28T02:26:56.121179Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Alright boys give me a reason to pile in on Poilievre here,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T22:56:36.149342Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,Like this post if you support Black Trans Athletes,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T19:59:37.593132Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Even though i believe you are right, as per market rules you have to wait until December 31st without a ceasefire so the",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,946.9086,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-06-15T10:30:16.910064Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,you lowlife trash not everyone has no life like you,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-21T20:41:31.554128Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Polymarket is NEVER going to overule a $100M market. They ""overruled"" that market by refunding the people on the losing ",YES,NO,False,True,9775.638,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514139,2025-06-01T19:43:14.784523Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"We¡¯ve expecienced it in Romania, 2 weeks before.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-24T18:32:29.574937Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Channel 13 Hebrew: Netanyahu discussed with his aides how to explain and present the settlement in the north to the Isra,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-27T17:25:28.488451Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,How do rewards even work on here? I bought a shit ton at like 15c and 21c do I get something if I hold it to the end?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,7530.86,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-23T08:47:52.298122Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,It¡¯ll be nice to win something but it also sucks to not understand this crypto wallet shit and these markets to play th,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,207.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T02:33:26.350053Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"UMA has rigged this vote in No's favor. I'm sorry, but it's true.",NO,NO,True,True,50.7828,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:42:13.078088Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I only earn $15 an hour this the best I can do,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2063.988,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T16:28:32.419695Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Mount Hermon is not entirely within the Golan Heights, but it is closely associated with the region. The mountain is loc",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-25T06:30:45.664567Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"@0xCarneyAsada bought 66,749 No for Pierre Poilievre at 80.4 ($53,666) 2m ago - Whale Cuck Identified!",YES,NO,False,True,591.63,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T21:15:03.589852Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,what does it mean just to resolve at $1?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4.63,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-28T11:46:07.735851Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Your total loss is $1776. Can¡¯t make this shit up.,YES,NO,False,True,100.19,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-05T01:44:15.740846Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Top whale here too, biden4prez, losing $700k on same bets.",YES,NO,False,True,493.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507276,2025-01-20T20:15:46.870468Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"What has forced Erasmus to spend stupidly is that 10 dollars has the same capacity as 10,000 when you convert it into sh",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,34.86,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +555752,2025-07-15T16:58:13.980899Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,Prepare for the roll into the July 22 market,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +516767,2025-04-18T00:48:50.299563Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Are we watching the same debate?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T05:13:19.574813Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,I sold at 99.7c and then rebought at 98.4c because I anticipated this. I've been through these types of disputes many ti,YES,NO,False,True,6401.4414,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T02:41:57.910803Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"NO holders too scared to buy another 185,000 shares at .3 it is only $555",YES,NO,False,True,5412.2715,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T18:28:03.659652Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Alex Parker just sent me a $1,000 tip. Just praise him guys",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..97f92e7e71e937be227bb3a6548eb346dde72e75 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,241 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +539788,2025-05-18T22:58:32.253133Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,I¡¯m putting my money where my mouth is,increase,increase,True,True,1100.92,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T16:34:38.470719Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.,flip,hold,False,True,481.6418,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-15T09:00:03.365523Z,US military action against Iran before July?,If this news report is true then for sure we get YES lol. https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1934131355031335256?t=pzBYtI,increase,increase,True,True,163.9966,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T10:16:05.020805Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Us No holders gamble on the technicallity that Hezbollah themselves never agreed to the ceasefire... which is a crucial ,decrease,increase,False,True,10.69,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T13:05:32.583959Z,US military action against Iran before July?,USA will only show teeth but won't bite Iran,flip,increase,False,True,58.36,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T20:50:12.682336Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Up because the UK was briefed on our totally real totally happening strike. lol read this https://www.thetimes.com/uk/de,increase,decrease,False,True,620.1157,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554012,2025-06-21T17:28:43.114822Z,US military action against Iran by Sunday?,This. Its amazing what positioning of equipment can do to dete,increase,hold,False,True,12.45,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T13:33:40.275624Z,US military action against Iran before July?,NoTards literally don¡¯t know what they¡¯re looking at. The planes are taken off the tarmac to PROTECT THEM FROM IRANIAN,hold,increase,False,True,1230.42,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T08:36:01.563289Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Even if Israel claims the 1974 treaty is void, the market focuses on actions, not just intent or justification. Crossing",flip,increase,False,True,27116.0855,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T17:41:23.472967Z,US military action against Iran before July?,jup: Trump will not sign joint G7 statement calling for de-escalation between Israel and Iran,decrease,increase,False,True,163.7556,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T16:40:46.040693Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"No buyers buying at 0,1 cents, meanwhile i invested 3000 dollar while it was 35 cent for no smh",hold,decrease,False,True,1644.5019,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T22:20:56.303881Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,money has people doing all sorts of things,increase,decrease,False,True,931.39,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T22:14:07.525636Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"The hatred you guys have for the nothing ever happens chud, he has feelings, he might get kids someday!",decrease,hold,False,True,66.7,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T01:43:31.208001Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"They will Dump again(70k) ,all No buyers be cautious.",hold,decrease,False,True,0.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T16:03:49.626746Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"By ""We"" He means American equipment you retards",flip,hold,False,True,199.1956,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T00:08:15.250138Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I can only use 2 lines on this site,increase,UNKNOWN,False,True,991.45,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T22:21:39.103994Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"i am surprised you are so invested in such a longterm bet wheras isreal would surely go deeper in the soon future, howev",decrease,increase,False,True,599.6567,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T03:23:41.629146Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,trump supportter will lose all their money on nov 5!!,hold,flip,False,True,900.3152,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T22:10:53.160345Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,we cant compete with this forsight guy he close to 8mil,hold,decrease,False,True,493.37,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T15:36:43.921773Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,can someone explain how yes has 'already won?' have i missed something,decrease,decrease,True,True,8.9495,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T11:32:19.681963Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,we need a source that Umm Batnah is in the Golan Heights,flip,hold,False,True,27116.0855,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T17:59:45.624519Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Israel never established control on any portion beyond the DMZ,flip,hold,False,True,26926.1765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T21:35:54.863935Z,US military action against Iran before July?,JOSINT says planes in the air.,flip,increase,False,True,101.6648,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T01:10:01.073093Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The answer to the question ¡°How does this market work?¡± Market's solution criteria: Between September 12, 2024 and D",decrease,flip,False,True,450.5983,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T15:18:26.853503Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"read the rules """"Yes"" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Syria""",decrease,UNKNOWN,False,True,52.5019,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-15T19:41:44.465367Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,Trump Putin meating very soon they said,flip,increase,False,True,61.8131,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T19:32:06.162802Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Bros. This is free money. Israel has invaded Syria. Even the Polymarket AI knows.,decrease,increase,False,True,1.11,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T03:55:55.942325Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"dude, it's done deal. I just don't sell it because what's the point, anyway the vote is against us",hold,decrease,False,True,87.2134,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T17:39:58.100414Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,not rich but has enough money to enjoy in polymarket,hold,hold,True,True,87.2134,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T08:45:36.174108Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kamala Harris is a child molester,decrease,hold,False,True,14.41,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T00:59:22.239377Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,When will be the results announced?,increase,hold,False,True,28.6667,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-07T19:57:27.121932Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Wake up americans, the world is laughing at you for even doubting this",hold,increase,False,True,163.75,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T17:41:06.350095Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,never gambling on the middle east again,flip,decrease,False,True,19.85,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-19T05:21:41.806317Z,US military action against Iran before August?,cant wait for the 10% daily decay on yes,hold,increase,False,True,6.9,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T22:29:47.062513Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"a photo of an accusation, nothing illegal.",hold,hold,True,True,69.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T00:32:16.466926Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Gallo 8.3K No 1m ago I didn't bother after UMA rejected it as evidence last two times.,increase,decrease,False,True,23200.613,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T12:36:47.081151Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"when Polymarket had add ""the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory"", they destroyed this market",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.4469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T03:04:42.397593Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"so the Golan argument is wrong, because we have proof they extended beyond even the buffer zone, which cant include the ",increase,decrease,False,True,931.39,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T22:47:08.395754Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Back to 3 0.03 for no! It even went to 0.04 when I was on the shitter lmao! Ngl this is the most exciting way I¡¯ve spen,increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T22:53:03.377572Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"its litteraly above ""final review"" and stuff it says it will resolve to yes",hold,flip,False,True,1.49,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T19:28:13.608697Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Why isn't Yes 50 points ahead, you might ask?",flip,decrease,False,True,3.06,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T21:48:38.023703Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"I think you meant ""objective"" but you're right, whether something is an invasion is subjective.",flip,hold,False,True,8.0172,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T02:45:53.532126Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"It's crazy that Melania keep buying about 40K NO shares in the past 12 hours, but the Yes price still remain not crash, ",hold,decrease,False,True,5338.6249,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T20:55:04.577148Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"In the past week, significant developments have emerged regarding the release of Jeffrey Epstein files by the Trump admi",decrease,decrease,True,True,915.4396,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T11:14:38.626068Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"IDF relaxed their shelter in place orders a little, Russian foreign ministry just warned the US against pursuing direct ",increase,decrease,False,True,544.122,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-20T14:40:50.275685Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,I think you know me better than my GF :),decrease,hold,False,True,104.85,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T17:05:41.989542Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"So is Shayne your savior or just another ""scammer""?",flip,hold,False,True,280.675,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T16:01:03.939604Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The syrian side of Mount Hebron is not Golan heights. And Israel has already took control of the syrian army's military ,decrease,increase,False,True,52.5019,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T03:35:01.764784Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"fellow Yes bros, who's gonna propose?? It will go through this time :)",increase,flip,False,True,355.5447,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-27T20:50:22.602453Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,our head of the defance minstary said they should halt schools for tomorrow cus thier might be massive attacks tomorrow ,decrease,increase,False,True,4.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-09T14:48:00.696322Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,"No sadly, he will be added to others, see the rules",hold,flip,False,True,44.5686,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-28T12:28:42.723068Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"""planet earth"" and ""earth"" are also not the same",hold,hold,True,True,213.9986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T19:31:21.514466Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Scam, we need to prosecute UMA and polymarket for market manipulation.",hold,hold,True,True,127.3258,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T02:22:44.010297Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"The easiest way to tell a man doesn't get consistent p*ssy is if they are a ""white guy for harris."" Haha, the most unf*c",hold,increase,False,True,176.41,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T10:21:46.627845Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Kanye told Trump about the j's Trump knows the truth and wont help em,hold,hold,True,True,125.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T10:50:55.204391Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Guys, here is another thinking: when the proposal happened and stupidly approved, it drove yes share up and lots of ppl,",hold,decrease,False,True,5.24,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-15T13:29:14.909601Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"What's true: Fordow is indeed one of Iran's most hardened nuclear facilities, built deep underground (reportedly 80-90 ",increase,decrease,False,True,163.9966,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T16:25:45.511737Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"I am afraid for Yes holders, this fraud is not gonna last long",increase,decrease,False,True,51.49,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T20:55:03.025153Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,ngl man they look to be in a good spot. it's us yes holders holding onto copium after 3pm didn't happen,increase,decrease,False,True,7021.9908,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554695,2025-06-23T17:45:32.692015Z,Another US military action against Iran by Monday?,You don¡¯t understand these dynamics,hold,decrease,False,True,3.4227,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T14:55:30.368913Z,US military action against Iran before July?,That¡¯s a pretty dumb view but ok,decrease,hold,False,True,155.2229,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T21:00:44.618678Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,Yeah im Hoping for another one tho,decrease,flip,False,True,908.1519,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T14:07:23.206658Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Israel invaded a collapsing Assad Syria to protect its borders from the aftermath. This means our market resolves to yes,increase,increase,True,True,456.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:06:02.852083Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,This French dude must be swimming in money right now,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-10T18:54:49.562618Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Looks like Israel is going deeper, not pulling out: https://x.com/Osint613/status/1855682798788485179",increase,increase,True,True,290.9935,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T16:56:31.806925Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"who cares, uma will vote as usual, just yes without any explanation",increase,hold,False,True,3.13,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T21:32:16.519314Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Y'all are dumb, they keep edging youy yestards, if. they were to do it it would already be done, they keep edging to use",increase,increase,True,True,219.0273,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T08:24:23.636635Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,it's crazy cause y'all keep yapping but get no results,increase,decrease,False,True,355.5447,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T15:58:28.156345Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,light work baby im not in a panic mode. :),increase,increase,True,True,20794.0361,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519075,2025-05-17T15:15:33.080741Z,Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election?,"maestre, in ce bula esti? cum nu reusesti sa vezi mobilizarea din societate?",hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T17:11:43.090456Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,URGENT: Lebanese media reports a series of IDF airstrikes in southern Lebanon. (I hope they are not scammers because the,increase,decrease,False,True,50.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-02T01:42:34.801027Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,TRUMP: INDIA WILL STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA,decrease,decrease,True,True,160.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T16:24:33.362466Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"No but if the existence of t he promise is in question, its pretty good evidence that it never existed in the first plac",flip,increase,False,True,118.8851,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T04:42:47.254912Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I dont recall giving Russia hundreds of billions of dollars under Trump? Not into 20% inflation, horrible real wage grow",increase,flip,False,True,1323.84,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T23:18:20.123778Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,SO TRUE! PLEASE BUY MORE NO AND CASH OUT ON THIS RARE OPPURUNITY!,flip,flip,True,True,1162.93,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T03:09:58.005201Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Israel invaded Assad Syria when they ended the border agreement by seizing mt hermon and the dmz. just because it was to,increase,increase,True,True,931.39,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T06:54:22.193278Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Large amount, mass scale, full blast invasion, similar to Lebanon with 300+ tanks and 3k army men. Is that too much to a",flip,decrease,False,True,94301.8932,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527882,2025-03-17T09:27:09.852714Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?,"@TychoBrahe, wants to pull out $0.5 mill from Friday market. Good luck, unfortunately, don't have a capital to deploy mo",decrease,decrease,True,True,17016.1024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T12:20:43.107978Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Definition of ""Should"": ""used to indicate what is likely or expected."" This does not imply that the outcome will be ""yes",increase,hold,False,True,18.95,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T21:59:18.446861Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Vance and Trump are playing good cop bad cop. Nothing is going to happen,decrease,increase,False,True,495.006,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T08:51:19.952589Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,The reason hezbollah violate the agreement is cause it never agreed to one,decrease,increase,False,True,428.0443,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T09:07:40.207729Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,have you heard of the biggest garbage patch on earth. i think its called india?,increase,hold,False,True,76.5799,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T22:36:33.927607Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"hopeless gambler waiting for the christmas spirit from the post-modern angels, lol",hold,decrease,False,True,62.64,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T17:01:26.412386Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Seems like there might be some free money on the table at UMA. Guess more people should buy UMA tokens and vote.,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T22:29:04.957108Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Let's do a quick poll. If you think YES will win, tip me $1. If you think NO will win, tip me $0.99.",decrease,hold,False,True,630.5454,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T11:17:28.888649Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,you should have seen hezbollah market,flip,increase,False,True,49.9511,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T17:28:43.114822Z,US military action against Iran before July?,This. Its amazing what positioning of equipment can do to dete,flip,hold,False,True,22.4627,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T22:56:41.821262Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,fake polymarket confirmation FUD / fake Golan height FUD / Twitter Pressurization to pump and dump on new buyers / using,flip,increase,False,True,2946.6025,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T07:07:52.874218Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"skystar001 sold 13,000 Yes at 34.7c",flip,increase,False,True,1927.9263,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T01:36:29.545558Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"""we'll use the power of friendship"" ahhhh comment section????",flip,hold,False,True,148.7815,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T19:19:21.109944Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Iran will be struck within 2 weeks,hold,increase,False,True,320.1452,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T10:43:43.719047Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"let them, only bs talk- imagine they actually bet yes. Free money with No tbh",decrease,increase,False,True,248.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T21:54:12.156328Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Can I buy a porkchop with polygon tokens?,decrease,hold,False,True,202.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T19:32:48.646294Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"""defense minister plans to control"" Oh so they dont control it?",flip,decrease,False,True,63.4677,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T02:36:55.589929Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Y'all bitching because you're losing money. I ain't get no responses,hold,hold,True,True,20.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T17:50:40.500771Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,They don't arrive until 6pm EST tomorrow at the EARLIEST,decrease,hold,False,True,116.48,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T07:05:07.360632Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) did not face resistance when it seized Syrian outposts outside of the disengagement zone,increase,increase,True,True,135.4801,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T17:53:39.268043Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Nice video of IDF soldiers, boots on the ground in Quneitra.",flip,increase,False,True,8.474,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T14:15:43.832275Z,US military action against Iran before July?,OBVIOUSLY THERE WILL BE NOTHING. BUY NO TO MAKE MONEY GUYS,decrease,increase,False,True,19.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T07:46:41.974249Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,wikipedia also said that israel invaded syria so idk,decrease,hold,False,True,8199.8894,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T17:13:13.608531Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"just read this guys UMA discution "" palimpsestuous 2024-12-11, 7:03 AM P2 Yes PHOTOGRAPHIC EVIDENCE IDF SEIZED TERRIT",increase,flip,False,True,38.4189,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T21:24:21.348627Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Iran knows they are fucked if they dont take this chance now.,decrease,flip,False,True,3929.3833,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T00:09:28.256715Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,We are 4 days after ending cmon,hold,hold,True,True,74.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-22T01:50:21.900546Z,US military action against Iran before July?,just redeploying capital. No big deal. More upside always around the corner,hold,decrease,False,True,1149.9952,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-27T07:11:58.136961Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"yeah, its not a vote counting.",hold,decrease,False,True,1257.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:29:22.280432Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Guys who told you who were on those planes?,decrease,decrease,True,True,4074.8444,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T09:30:43.550634Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Aenews profits on swing all gone amazing! Truth will win,flip,increase,False,True,28855.1091,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-25T15:25:48.854661Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Al-Arabiya: The U.S. has informed Lebanese officials that a declaration of the war's end will be made in the coming hour,flip,increase,False,True,10349.0382,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554707,2025-06-22T15:16:13.507768Z,Another US military action against Iran by June 30?,They'll call them announcing the strikes and they'll hit nothing on purpose... They've done it before this way,decrease,increase,False,True,7.3333,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T19:04:18.078424Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,BREAKING NEWS FROM AL MAYADEEN: ISRAEL WILL FALL AT THE HANDS OF NASRALLAH. GREAT LEADER DID NOT DIE IN BOMBING. MOHAMME,flip,flip,True,True,302.0599,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T22:36:44.708635Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Imagine doing that for 17% profit.,flip,decrease,False,True,26926.1765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T18:00:28.091795Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"we dont rely on russian media, but global western media...",increase,hold,False,True,589.414,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T17:18:56.965736Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Can anyone explain to me why sandra doesn't just buy all at once? And gradually buys higher price when she/he pumps the ,decrease,hold,False,True,14.0267,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T16:13:15.236268Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,"Jun23 might make it but wouldn¡¯t touch it, b2 just won¡¯t make it in time. There is no way they are going directly to I",increase,increase,True,True,89.4034,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T12:19:17.478291Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,''fake news'' Calm down with your L XD (not cringe at all),increase,decrease,False,True,13279.914,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T18:48:14.858963Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"This is what he likes, he loves the whole world to be watching - but we need to separate the comments that Trump makes i",increase,decrease,False,True,2923.5683,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T03:46:34.747508Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,yeah no im staying out of those type of markets until UMA is replaced with better resolution system. Can't always count ,decrease,decrease,True,True,7849.9459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-23T01:29:23.072312Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,I bet a hedge to cover 30 June to pay out what I bet here. 31 May is going to be a super close call.,increase,decrease,False,True,7835.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T01:30:03.570774Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Also clear from the same three people in this comment section spitting the same rhetoric,decrease,hold,False,True,6518.1154,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T04:18:03.986069Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,I fed this market into every AI available to judge if it is a YES or NO and it gave YES every single time. Not a single ,increase,flip,False,True,412.89,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T13:23:15.968177Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Such self-hating is a jewish tradition with deep roots,decrease,hold,False,True,112.6458,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T17:39:10.949241Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Car and that chinese fucker are so silent now :),increase,hold,False,True,441.4363,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-20T12:04:42.809226Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Polymarket intervened to stop an obvious scam from UMA whales and no-holders are mad.,flip,decrease,False,True,489.2917,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T22:29:43.351427Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"As you should. Switch sides before it's too late. The vote will obviously end in P4 and soon enough, it's 50/50...",flip,flip,True,True,26926.1765,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T17:23:06.329927Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel has definitely expanding the borders outside of golan heights, see the results here: https://syria.liveuamap.com/",flip,increase,False,True,294.7271,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T19:28:42.493595Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,According to ChatGPT the today's release does not qualify according to the rules you mentioned.,increase,decrease,False,True,70.06,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T20:59:44.703225Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"if you enter a buffer zone and call it yours, this is ""Taking control"", it's not buffer anymore",flip,increase,False,True,1156.8745,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T08:17:54.815663Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"You are right. In their view, Russia's behavior can also be P4",decrease,hold,False,True,2549.7514,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T16:56:37.538785Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"""The OO lets users assert statements as true, backed by economic incentives."" Could these economic incentives be the pro",hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T17:41:11.869799Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,What happens if final review is p4 (too early) ? since its final how could it conclude to yes or no given that the quest,flip,decrease,False,True,190.1175,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-20T14:34:45.528556Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"good catch, and you're prob right, good job keeping it respectful bro",hold,hold,True,True,14.125,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T20:22:25.014822Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I think i see people memeing on muslims about it,flip,hold,False,True,302.0599,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:46:19.402483Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,if your avg price is not around 50-60 on donald trump you are fkg disgrace and should leave America you fkg retard.,decrease,increase,False,True,3728.25,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-14T10:25:20.102933Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,"Economically its not profitable, opportunity cost is higher :)",decrease,decrease,True,True,109.458,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T04:48:32.692683Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,this is the same source ISW mentioned in there report today btw,flip,hold,False,True,1927.9263,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T00:58:15.946749Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The only reason polymarket is not a shitty shady teenager scam is trust. Lets see what happens,decrease,decrease,True,True,7972.2085,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T20:38:21.037445Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Fordow Nuclear Power plant in #Iran is currently being attacked by unknown ground forces.,decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T00:45:09.807495Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,if uma actually follows the rules it will be a no but if they are paid off by the DOJ and Kash patels FBI they will scam,increase,decrease,False,True,29.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-17T19:26:34.497219Z,US military action against Iran before August?,The son of a Qatari oil magnent with inside connections to the U.S? Who knows on polymarket,decrease,hold,False,True,34.9997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:23:10.795332Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Waiting my deposit to buy more dump yes pls,decrease,increase,False,True,515.57,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T11:33:42.010771Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Big data and math says, there is no way rather then P4 to be an outcome of the UMA market, except a risk of forgery",increase,increase,True,True,299.87,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T09:41:11.439468Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"If we want to hold on to the end and win, we have to influence UMA Discord, to speak effectively and rationally, speak, ",hold,increase,False,True,5338.6249,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-12T18:03:33.124521Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,honestly fuck this market and the romanian elections,hold,decrease,False,True,4.57,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T16:36:42.721675Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Syrian Hermon is inside the DMZ which isn¡¯t internationally recognized as Syrian land,flip,hold,False,True,26926.1765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T01:15:12.145092Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,They shut down the discord comments lmaoooo,hold,hold,True,True,37.6667,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T01:04:26.508738Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Lmao I never know if these pumps are real news or just tardios,increase,decrease,False,True,1622.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T17:33:23.821014Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,israel try not to kill someone for 1 week challenge,flip,decrease,False,True,1162.93,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:48:38.696421Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Dispute based on what? Have fun finding non-existent evidence.,decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.5096,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T00:50:29.673682Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,IDF plans to launch broader Syrian campaign. Tick tock,flip,increase,False,True,989.063,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T23:09:34.545933Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"HIFI31, HIFI32, HIFI33, and HIFI34 airborne",hold,increase,False,True,146.3,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T14:37:27.046712Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"incursion is not equal to invasion, UMA already voted on this . israel will just reject like everyother ""Israel denies i",decrease,increase,False,True,73.6947,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T17:54:05.995938Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"yeah 0 sense it will be ''No'', just some whales tryna manuliplate the market right now.",increase,increase,True,True,21252.7382,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T20:07:52.519918Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Trump reiterates two weeks is the ¡°maximum¡± before a decision on Iran is made.,decrease,increase,False,True,200.26,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T17:28:50.968525Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,are we looking at the same map,flip,decrease,False,True,2132.4375,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T08:20:19.557517Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,And you¡¯re still keeping your position?,flip,decrease,False,True,26926.1765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T12:11:26.865013Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL TO REUTERS: ZERO ENRICHMENT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE REJECTED , 'ESPECIALLY NOW, UNDER ISRAEL¡¯S STRI",increase,increase,True,True,2923.5683,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T03:20:41.297633Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I feel like your a psy op to make yes side seem dumber,flip,hold,False,True,280.675,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T08:35:05.566319Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"It's time for you to be brave to leave SCAM SQUAD and keep you money before you loose it all, truth is winning you have ",hold,decrease,False,True,6621.3341,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-20T03:51:33.100629Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Bro what if I go back I literally told everyone to have respect to other people I can show you like 5 cases,hold,hold,True,True,627.41,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T14:59:48.601239Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"NO on bet not do please money, lose to afford not can you If all. at rules the satisfy not does evidence current The wor",decrease,decrease,True,True,44.0853,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T11:47:42.862915Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"No need tbh, to much evidence coming out.",hold,flip,False,True,27541.8768,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T17:06:11.643794Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,it didnt the first 3 times but im sure the 4th is the charm...,flip,decrease,False,True,1339.9263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T01:01:49.304103Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Yep more and more evidence coming out matter of time bro!,increase,increase,True,True,18190.3608,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T17:01:13.062356Z,US military action against Iran before July?,You really think if they had an order it would be public?,flip,hold,False,True,28.0645,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T22:29:55.963452Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Bro, look at the history of the dispute for 1 minute",decrease,decrease,True,True,16656.36,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T19:00:47.634067Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"What do you expect to find, UNDOF is within the Golan Heights, it doesn't define their border as the heights go past it",flip,hold,False,True,63.4677,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T14:19:53.132553Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"I YOU READIN THIS SHAYNE COPLAN, YOU A BITCH!!!!!!!!",hold,hold,True,True,5.576,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:32:33.806511Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,They're going to release more in the coming weeks - but todays release was nothing that meets the rules of this market. ,decrease,increase,False,True,2.11,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T16:15:00.478936Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Hezbollah will also need to make a statement after the annoucement. If it gets accepted without it, it is rigged",increase,decrease,False,True,2.98,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-16T15:22:51.499724Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The border bill had strings attached. Details that forced him to reject the bill. It was NOT an actual border bill. Seve,hold,hold,True,True,39.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-27T00:41:53.842601Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,People are that stubborn they¡¯d prefer $0 then to just sell the no shares now,hold,decrease,False,True,1247.0209,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T22:59:07.405669Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,i'm here for knowledge not money,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T18:23:26.948203Z,US military action against Iran before July?,US military action against Iran by Friday is out :),flip,decrease,False,True,892.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T19:38:10.361094Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"What are all these bot accounts doing, just buying and then selling directly?",decrease,hold,False,True,8.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T01:50:18.568793Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Earlier Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said that Israeli forces will remain in a Syrian bu",increase,increase,True,True,456.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-15T16:04:00.410859Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Axios - US Deploys B-2 Bombers in Strike on Iran Nuclear Sites,increase,increase,True,True,180.2639,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T15:29:00.138149Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Not really at all, considering how lebanon market resolved this is the most obvious ""No"" in the world. Both markets have",increase,increase,True,True,74729.1138,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-15T06:46:46.527732Z,US military action against Iran before July?,just need to wait until credible reporting soon,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T07:46:41.833441Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Times of Israel: The Syrian security source says Israeli troops reached Qatana, which is 10 kilometers (6 miles) into Sy",flip,decrease,False,True,47.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519075,2025-03-06T10:52:46.740861Z,Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election?,"People will vote out of spite. I understand that most people think that CG voters are stupid, a certain amount are for s",hold,increase,False,True,193.2396,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T22:51:17.973184Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The mention of Golan in the market rule, is probably to exclude the occupation of Golan by Israel as a reason to resolve",hold,hold,True,True,456.71,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-01T00:51:04.266221Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,uma voters dont make anything off this market last time i checked,flip,hold,False,True,19.85,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T15:26:18.586307Z,US military action against Iran before July?,*Checks conditions for market resolving* does not say anything about war starting.,flip,decrease,False,True,275.6575,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T19:24:56.221645Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"It's absurd to imagine people in the administration are not staked to Yes. But, I'm crazy and took No.",hold,decrease,False,True,14.125,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T23:26:35.476885Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Iran is getting pounded so hard right now, it can't be only Isreal doing it",flip,increase,False,True,88.2705,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T02:44:34.767052Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,It also proves that your dick is very small.,decrease,hold,False,True,46.254,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T03:52:11.298738Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"ur getting desperate seeing the price fall, its okay bro keep hope",decrease,decrease,True,True,1057.5967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-06-10T15:17:42.711564Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,This is very simple: redeem 'no' in 20 days.,decrease,hold,False,True,841.146,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T23:49:32.807888Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"The top holders are still buying yes shares, sheeesh",hold,flip,False,True,269.5587,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T21:25:42.358812Z,US military action against Iran before July?,BREAKING Khamenei would surrender nuclear programme for Cars wife,increase,decrease,False,True,113.0144,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T14:29:44.726725Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Israel is still bombarding South Lebanon and HEzbollah has not come out to announce a ceasefire officially even though b,hold,decrease,False,True,190.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T14:05:27.149932Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Kamala voters, if you don't like money you might as well donate them to me 0x0B7055D1285840c62f719B406A61f714b6927727",hold,increase,False,True,380.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T20:21:17.997916Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"What counts as Israeli territory? ""For the purposes of this market, the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory"".",flip,hold,False,True,63.4677,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T00:15:06.504857Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Wtf, look at the voting. It was 86 vs 14 few minutes ago",hold,decrease,False,True,458.47,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T11:55:00.502682Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The intent of the market is to answer if Israel invaded Syria in 2024, so",increase,UNKNOWN,False,True,456.71,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T12:44:25.322276Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Money run the world, like always, even here.",increase,hold,False,True,463.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-18T23:58:27.469813Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,lol you don't need to do that they already don't read past headlines,hold,hold,True,True,5784.54,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T17:51:17.759072Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"I love blind money-YES bettors jump on every headline and ¡®breaking¡¯ alert, ignoring diplomacy and strategy entirely. ",flip,increase,False,True,19713.4866,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-19T12:58:14.449768Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,YEStards keep falling for it over and over again,hold,increase,False,True,314.39,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T20:50:37.826467Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Trump talks big but acts pragmatically. No US troops killed, no nuclear breakout, no public casus belli = no real trigge",hold,increase,False,True,24441.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T16:50:01.290503Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"If ever the AI God sees these comment section, humanity is fucked.",hold,hold,True,True,1.0886,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T01:46:54.077872Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,actually u can save your money if you stay on yes and bet 50$ to no it will balanced,decrease,decrease,True,True,4.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T00:07:09.110097Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"well, come back in some minutes and see for yourself",flip,hold,False,True,148.7815,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T15:22:17.765813Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"So says the man that went in at 53c, looool",decrease,hold,False,True,1354.9596,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T22:34:20.769331Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The concept of a buffer zone, or DMZ is that it doesn't belong to any country. It's a neutral area. Which is why accordi",flip,hold,False,True,26926.1765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T20:11:55.792583Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"After yesterday evacuation order issued of one Syrian town, today Israel issues a second evacuation order to a two Syria",increase,increase,True,True,2985.2068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T03:34:25.571272Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I'm going to donate my profits to support Israeli border defense in Syria.,flip,increase,False,True,3.06,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T19:17:03.317856Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Golan heights 2 can go from Mount Hermon to Damascus,flip,hold,False,True,63.4677,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T14:40:42.676943Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"https://oracle.uma.xyz/ really strange. if i go to ""settled"" the site just freezes",hold,decrease,False,True,11191.0113,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T10:04:45.498872Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"my dear Charlie83 , explain your evidence and view in UMA discord please",hold,hold,True,True,5338.6249,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T21:44:07.176192Z,US military action against Iran before July?,No he¡¯s saying you think people actually eat papa johns,hold,hold,True,True,2081.9978,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T12:58:01.618412Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"no we have till 31 dec, as per the market rule untill yes is proven it will go",decrease,hold,False,True,36.4063,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T20:26:31.643896Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,It¡¯s okay I forgive you always have respect,hold,hold,True,True,627.41,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T21:05:45.948945Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"you dont need evidence. You need ""n source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Syria, Israel, the U",decrease,increase,False,True,52.5019,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T17:27:35.984643Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Polymarket CEO Liked my tweet from yesterday. Don't worry, the matter is being handled.",flip,hold,False,True,2329.7292,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T13:45:52.895304Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Can anyone point me to a source saying Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire? The only thing I see is an agreement with Lebano,flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T16:35:57.027873Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Starting a war with Iran sounds like political suicide for trump my bet is that he is sufficiently rational not to engag,decrease,increase,False,True,843.683,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T22:51:59.563582Z,US military action against Iran before July?,I dont think its just another Israeli attack: Trump never said anything like that when Israel attacked. It would only ma,flip,increase,False,True,3318.898,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T17:45:01.072471Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Can someone please exactly explain, how do you ""buy"" UMA votes and how much do they cost? Or how do you even get them?",hold,hold,True,True,71.57,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T11:16:19.793365Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"he means the stock market, not this market",decrease,hold,False,True,4328.1855,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T14:19:33.730568Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"P4 to early, The wording is clear, golan heights is excluded. This area has been disputed since 1967. Yes Israel used t",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:40:13.394332Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,MAGAAAA WHERE ARE YOU PEASANT HARRIS,increase,increase,True,True,734.6839,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T13:29:17.994615Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Tired, check whatever map u can find, This is BBC:https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c390j9x9w9go wiki:https://en.wikip",hold,hold,True,True,5338.6249,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-14T21:33:39.154895Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"People are underestimating the groomer vote. Trump looks like shit at 80 years old, while Kamala has an attractive Milf ",decrease,flip,False,True,2494.4061,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T04:28:41.089533Z,US military action against Iran before July?,global thermonuclear war needs to happen so I don¡¯t have to pay child support,increase,hold,False,True,195.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T23:25:33.758188Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Julani said, ""Israel's excuses for entering Syria no longer exist. After the Iranians' departure, there are no more just",increase,flip,False,True,931.39,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-11T15:15:08.396881Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Those who say it is part of the agreement :)),increase,decrease,False,True,38.8996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T00:18:15.695692Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,These points collectively provide a compelling argument that Israel's actions after the fall of Assad can be considered ,increase,increase,True,True,456.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-28T15:36:10.531295Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,how is simion still 14% ??? what is this market lmao,hold,decrease,False,True,4.57,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T21:18:43.731822Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,this guy kept buying lol i think he gonna spend $8 mil,hold,increase,False,True,493.37,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T21:13:44.128266Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,ok then buy yes at these cheap prices,hold,flip,False,True,589.414,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-06-03T07:30:18.191313Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"Ukraine won¡¯t forfeit territories while there¡¯s parity, ruzzia gains little territory while loosing a lot of men. At t",hold,increase,False,True,1015.19,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T20:47:48.105561Z,US military action against Iran before July?,ALERT INFO - POTUS DONALD TRUMP HAS JUST DECLARED THAT EVERY HOLDER OF '' NO '' IS VERY GAY BECAUSE THEY DON'T UNDERSTAN,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T20:34:41.874017Z,US military action against Iran before July?,trump is even open for a ceasefire now which he was not open to before lol,flip,decrease,False,True,1168.5641,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T08:04:26.517833Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"kinda tired of all this idiocracy, wanna put all my questions in one post, receive 0 answers as usual and forget about t",increase,decrease,False,True,4.63,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-15T19:35:20.063035Z,US military action against Iran before July?,This is hilarious: https://x.com/EliAfriatISR/status/1904126054517952602 too bad it won't bring us any moneys,increase,decrease,False,True,164.0146,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T11:32:15.855422Z,US military action against Iran before July?,NOTHING EVER HAPPENS. I nees to go all in,increase,increase,True,True,256.82,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T10:08:40.988107Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Should I tell you all, this works like last ""Israel bombed Iran nuclear facility"". The tricky thing here is, after the ",decrease,decrease,True,True,16843.8696,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T11:30:47.240097Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,The important part here is that the Hezbollah militant party operates independently of the Lebanese state. This means th,increase,increase,True,True,179.9977,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T13:14:54.420811Z,US military action against Iran before July?,You have no idea how I'm trading this.,flip,hold,False,True,713.5767,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..810b1f0cfac253bbc9f54858c36e38233954045a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +506968,2024-12-09T14:19:33.730568Z,"P4 to early, The wording is clear, golan heights is excluded. This area has been disputed since 1967. Yes Israel used t",decrease,hold,False +532741,2025-06-18T10:21:46.627845Z,Kanye told Trump about the j's Trump knows the truth and wont help em,hold,hold,True +797327,2025-12-23T14:19:53.132553Z,"I YOU READIN THIS SHAYNE COPLAN, YOU A BITCH!!!!!!!!",hold,hold,True +528977,2025-05-20T14:40:50.275685Z,I think you know me better than my GF :),decrease,hold,False +507792,2024-12-02T08:51:19.952589Z,The reason hezbollah violate the agreement is cause it never agreed to one,decrease,hold,False +506968,2024-12-19T03:46:34.747508Z,yeah no im staying out of those type of markets until UMA is replaced with better resolution system. Can't always count ,decrease,decrease,True +506968,2024-12-14T07:46:41.974249Z,wikipedia also said that israel invaded syria so idk,decrease,decrease,True +532741,2025-06-21T21:59:18.446861Z,Vance and Trump are playing good cop bad cop. Nothing is going to happen,decrease,hold,False +506968,2024-12-10T12:58:01.618412Z,"no we have till 31 dec, as per the market rule untill yes is proven it will go",decrease,hold,False +507792,2024-12-02T22:53:03.377572Z,"its litteraly above ""final review"" and stuff it says it will resolve to yes",hold,decrease,False +551650,2025-06-19T05:21:41.806317Z,cant wait for the 10% daily decay on yes,hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-16T02:44:34.767052Z,It also proves that your dick is very small.,decrease,hold,False +539788,2025-05-14T10:25:20.102933Z,"Economically its not profitable, opportunity cost is higher :)",decrease,decrease,True +507792,2024-11-19T12:58:14.449768Z,YEStards keep falling for it over and over again,hold,hold,True +253591,2024-11-04T02:22:44.010297Z,"The easiest way to tell a man doesn't get consistent p*ssy is if they are a ""white guy for harris."" Haha, the most unf*c",hold,hold,True +253591,2024-11-06T06:06:02.852083Z,This French dude must be swimming in money right now,decrease,hold,False +253591,2024-11-04T03:23:41.629146Z,trump supportter will lose all their money on nov 5!!,hold,decrease,False +797327,2025-12-22T20:55:04.577148Z,"In the past week, significant developments have emerged regarding the release of Jeffrey Epstein files by the Trump admi",decrease,decrease,True +507792,2024-12-03T23:49:32.807888Z,"The top holders are still buying yes shares, sheeesh",hold,decrease,False +797327,2025-12-23T22:36:33.927607Z,"hopeless gambler waiting for the christmas spirit from the post-modern angels, lol",hold,decrease,False +507792,2024-12-04T10:50:55.204391Z,"Guys, here is another thinking: when the proposal happened and stupidly approved, it drove yes share up and lots of ppl,",hold,decrease,False +253591,2024-10-14T21:33:39.154895Z,"People are underestimating the groomer vote. Trump looks like shit at 80 years old, while Kamala has an attractive Milf ",decrease,decrease,True +532741,2025-06-21T14:15:43.832275Z,OBVIOUSLY THERE WILL BE NOTHING. BUY NO TO MAKE MONEY GUYS,decrease,hold,False +506968,2024-12-08T16:01:03.939604Z,The syrian side of Mount Hebron is not Golan heights. And Israel has already took control of the syrian army's military ,decrease,decrease,True +506968,2024-12-15T02:36:55.589929Z,Y'all bitching because you're losing money. I ain't get no responses,hold,hold,True +797327,2025-12-20T14:34:45.528556Z,"good catch, and you're prob right, good job keeping it respectful bro",hold,hold,True +532741,2025-06-18T14:29:22.280432Z,Guys who told you who were on those planes?,decrease,decrease,True +551650,2025-06-17T19:26:34.497219Z,The son of a Qatari oil magnent with inside connections to the U.S? Who knows on polymarket,decrease,hold,False +507792,2024-12-04T16:56:37.538785Z,"""The OO lets users assert statements as true, backed by economic incentives."" Could these economic incentives be the pro",hold,decrease,False +506968,2024-12-12T01:43:31.208001Z,"They will Dump again(70k) ,all No buyers be cautious.",hold,decrease,False +507792,2024-12-03T22:29:04.957108Z,"Let's do a quick poll. If you think YES will win, tip me $1. If you think NO will win, tip me $0.99.",decrease,hold,False +507792,2024-11-27T00:41:53.842601Z,People are that stubborn they¡¯d prefer $0 then to just sell the no shares now,hold,decrease,False +506968,2024-12-18T09:41:11.439468Z,"If we want to hold on to the end and win, we have to influence UMA Discord, to speak effectively and rationally, speak, ",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-08T15:18:26.853503Z,"read the rules """"Yes"" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Syria""",decrease,hold,False +506968,2024-12-18T19:32:06.162802Z,Bros. This is free money. Israel has invaded Syria. Even the Polymarket AI knows.,decrease,hold,False +532741,2025-06-20T17:18:56.965736Z,Can anyone explain to me why sandra doesn't just buy all at once? And gradually buys higher price when she/he pumps the ,decrease,hold,False +554707,2025-06-22T15:16:13.507768Z,They'll call them announcing the strikes and they'll hit nothing on purpose... They've done it before this way,decrease,hold,False +797327,2025-12-23T00:09:28.256715Z,We are 4 days after ending cmon,hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-08T21:05:45.948945Z,"you dont need evidence. You need ""n source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Syria, Israel, the U",decrease,hold,False +797327,2025-12-23T00:15:06.504857Z,"Wtf, look at the voting. It was 86 vs 14 few minutes ago",hold,decrease,False +253591,2024-11-04T08:45:36.174108Z,Kamala Harris is a child molester,decrease,decrease,True +506968,2024-12-19T14:59:48.601239Z,"NO on bet not do please money, lose to afford not can you If all. at rules the satisfy not does evidence current The wor",decrease,decrease,True +532741,2025-06-18T20:50:37.826467Z,"Trump talks big but acts pragmatically. No US troops killed, no nuclear breakout, no public casus belli = no real trigge",hold,hold,True +797327,2025-12-22T21:18:43.731822Z,this guy kept buying lol i think he gonna spend $8 mil,hold,decrease,False +532741,2025-06-18T10:43:43.719047Z,"let them, only bs talk- imagine they actually bet yes. Free money with No tbh",decrease,hold,False +506968,2024-12-09T22:21:39.103994Z,"i am surprised you are so invested in such a longterm bet wheras isreal would surely go deeper in the soon future, howev",decrease,decrease,True +527882,2025-03-17T09:27:09.852714Z,"@TychoBrahe, wants to pull out $0.5 mill from Friday market. Good luck, unfortunately, don't have a capital to deploy mo",decrease,decrease,True +797327,2025-12-19T19:24:56.221645Z,"It's absurd to imagine people in the administration are not staked to Yes. But, I'm crazy and took No.",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-11T22:51:17.973184Z,"The mention of Golan in the market rule, is probably to exclude the occupation of Golan by Israel as a reason to resolve",hold,decrease,False +506968,2024-12-12T21:13:44.128266Z,ok then buy yes at these cheap prices,hold,decrease,False +506968,2024-12-14T08:17:54.815663Z,"You are right. In their view, Russia's behavior can also be P4",decrease,hold,False +532741,2025-06-20T15:22:17.765813Z,"So says the man that went in at 53c, looool",decrease,hold,False +537194,2025-04-28T12:28:42.723068Z,"""planet earth"" and ""earth"" are also not the same",hold,hold,True +532741,2025-06-20T14:55:30.368913Z,That¡¯s a pretty dumb view but ok,decrease,hold,False +797327,2025-12-19T21:48:38.696421Z,Dispute based on what? Have fun finding non-existent evidence.,decrease,decrease,True +506968,2024-12-19T01:10:01.073093Z,"The answer to the question ¡°How does this market work?¡± Market's solution criteria: Between September 12, 2024 and D",decrease,decrease,True +532741,2025-06-17T21:44:07.176192Z,No he¡¯s saying you think people actually eat papa johns,hold,hold,True +532741,2025-06-20T13:33:40.275624Z,NoTards literally don¡¯t know what they¡¯re looking at. The planes are taken off the tarmac to PROTECT THEM FROM IRANIAN,hold,decrease,False +253591,2024-11-06T06:46:19.402483Z,if your avg price is not around 50-60 on donald trump you are fkg disgrace and should leave America you fkg retard.,decrease,hold,False +797327,2025-12-19T22:29:47.062513Z,"a photo of an accusation, nothing illegal.",hold,hold,True +253591,2024-11-06T14:40:42.676943Z,"https://oracle.uma.xyz/ really strange. if i go to ""settled"" the site just freezes",hold,decrease,False +797327,2025-12-19T21:32:33.806511Z,They're going to release more in the coming weeks - but todays release was nothing that meets the rules of this market. ,decrease,hold,False +532741,2025-06-22T01:50:21.900546Z,just redeploying capital. No big deal. More upside always around the corner,hold,hold,True +532741,2025-06-18T14:23:10.795332Z,Waiting my deposit to buy more dump yes pls,decrease,hold,False +797327,2025-12-19T22:29:55.963452Z,"Bro, look at the history of the dispute for 1 minute",decrease,decrease,True +532741,2025-06-20T20:07:52.519918Z,Trump reiterates two weeks is the ¡°maximum¡± before a decision on Iran is made.,decrease,decrease,True +507792,2024-11-27T20:50:22.602453Z,our head of the defance minstary said they should halt schools for tomorrow cus thier might be massive attacks tomorrow ,decrease,decrease,True +253591,2024-10-31T01:30:03.570774Z,Also clear from the same three people in this comment section spitting the same rhetoric,decrease,hold,False +253591,2024-11-04T14:05:27.149932Z,"Kamala voters, if you don't like money you might as well donate them to me 0x0B7055D1285840c62f719B406A61f714b6927727",hold,decrease,False +554010,2025-06-21T17:50:40.500771Z,They don't arrive until 6pm EST tomorrow at the EARLIEST,decrease,hold,False +507792,2024-12-04T17:39:58.100414Z,not rich but has enough money to enjoy in polymarket,hold,hold,True +554010,2025-06-21T21:00:44.618678Z,Yeah im Hoping for another one tho,decrease,hold,False +797327,2025-12-22T01:46:54.077872Z,actually u can save your money if you stay on yes and bet 50$ to no it will balanced,decrease,decrease,True +532741,2025-06-19T23:09:34.545933Z,"HIFI31, HIFI32, HIFI33, and HIFI34 airborne",hold,decrease,False +506968,2024-12-09T03:52:11.298738Z,"ur getting desperate seeing the price fall, its okay bro keep hope",decrease,hold,False +253591,2024-10-27T07:11:58.136961Z,"yeah, its not a vote counting.",hold,decrease,False +532741,2025-06-21T20:38:21.037445Z,Fordow Nuclear Power plant in #Iran is currently being attacked by unknown ground forces.,decrease,decrease,True +506968,2024-12-19T08:35:05.566319Z,"It's time for you to be brave to leave SCAM SQUAD and keep you money before you loose it all, truth is winning you have ",hold,decrease,False +512340,2024-12-09T14:48:00.696322Z,"No sadly, he will be added to others, see the rules",hold,decrease,False +512340,2024-12-28T15:36:10.531295Z,how is simion still 14% ??? what is this market lmao,hold,decrease,False +797327,2025-12-20T03:51:33.100629Z,Bro what if I go back I literally told everyone to have respect to other people I can show you like 5 cases,hold,hold,True +507792,2024-12-04T03:55:55.942325Z,"dude, it's done deal. I just don't sell it because what's the point, anyway the vote is against us",hold,hold,True +253591,2024-11-04T16:50:01.290503Z,"If ever the AI God sees these comment section, humanity is fucked.",hold,hold,True +507792,2024-11-18T23:58:27.469813Z,lol you don't need to do that they already don't read past headlines,hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-15T14:37:27.046712Z,"incursion is not equal to invasion, UMA already voted on this . israel will just reject like everyother ""Israel denies i",decrease,hold,False +519075,2025-03-06T10:52:46.740861Z,"People will vote out of spite. I understand that most people think that CG voters are stupid, a certain amount are for s",hold,hold,True +537194,2025-08-02T01:42:34.801027Z,TRUMP: INDIA WILL STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA,decrease,decrease,True +507792,2024-12-02T21:54:12.156328Z,Can I buy a porkchop with polygon tokens?,decrease,hold,False +532741,2025-06-17T22:14:07.525636Z,"The hatred you guys have for the nothing ever happens chud, he has feelings, he might get kids someday!",decrease,hold,False +507792,2024-11-28T14:29:44.726725Z,Israel is still bombarding South Lebanon and HEzbollah has not come out to announce a ceasefire officially even though b,hold,decrease,False +506968,2024-12-17T02:45:53.532126Z,"It's crazy that Melania keep buying about 40K NO shares in the past 12 hours, but the Yes price still remain not crash, ",hold,decrease,False +507792,2024-12-04T17:45:01.072471Z,"Can someone please exactly explain, how do you ""buy"" UMA votes and how much do they cost? Or how do you even get them?",hold,hold,True +512340,2024-12-12T18:03:33.124521Z,honestly fuck this market and the romanian elections,hold,decrease,False +506968,2024-12-19T15:36:43.921773Z,can someone explain how yes has 'already won?' have i missed something,decrease,hold,False +506968,2024-12-18T10:04:45.498872Z,"my dear Charlie83 , explain your evidence and view in UMA discord please",hold,hold,True +532741,2025-06-17T16:35:57.027873Z,Starting a war with Iran sounds like political suicide for trump my bet is that he is sufficiently rational not to engag,decrease,hold,False +507792,2024-11-29T10:08:40.988107Z,"Should I tell you all, this works like last ""Israel bombed Iran nuclear facility"". The tricky thing here is, after the ",decrease,decrease,True +532741,2025-06-16T17:41:23.472967Z,jup: Trump will not sign joint G7 statement calling for de-escalation between Israel and Iran,decrease,decrease,True +532741,2025-06-20T11:16:19.793365Z,"he means the stock market, not this market",decrease,decrease,True +532741,2025-06-17T20:47:48.105561Z,ALERT INFO - POTUS DONALD TRUMP HAS JUST DECLARED THAT EVERY HOLDER OF '' NO '' IS VERY GAY BECAUSE THEY DON'T UNDERSTAN,decrease,decrease,True +797327,2025-12-22T22:10:53.160345Z,we cant compete with this forsight guy he close to 8mil,hold,decrease,False +507792,2024-11-30T10:16:05.020805Z,Us No holders gamble on the technicallity that Hezbollah themselves never agreed to the ceasefire... which is a crucial ,decrease,decrease,True +532741,2025-06-16T21:24:21.348627Z,Iran knows they are fucked if they dont take this chance now.,decrease,decrease,True +506968,2024-12-18T00:58:15.946749Z,The only reason polymarket is not a shitty shady teenager scam is trust. Lets see what happens,decrease,decrease,True +554695,2025-06-23T17:45:32.692015Z,You don¡¯t understand these dynamics,hold,decrease,False +253591,2024-10-07T19:57:27.121932Z,"Wake up americans, the world is laughing at you for even doubting this",hold,hold,True +519075,2025-05-17T15:15:33.080741Z,"maestre, in ce bula esti? cum nu reusesti sa vezi mobilizarea din societate?",hold,decrease,False +507792,2024-12-04T19:31:21.514466Z,"Scam, we need to prosecute UMA and polymarket for market manipulation.",hold,hold,True +797327,2025-12-22T16:40:46.040693Z,"No buyers buying at 0,1 cents, meanwhile i invested 3000 dollar while it was 35 cent for no smh",hold,decrease,False +532741,2025-06-19T19:19:21.109944Z,Iran will be struck within 2 weeks,hold,decrease,False +506968,2024-12-15T13:29:17.994615Z,"Tired, check whatever map u can find, This is BBC:https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c390j9x9w9go wiki:https://en.wikip",hold,hold,True +537194,2025-06-03T07:30:18.191313Z,"Ukraine won¡¯t forfeit territories while there¡¯s parity, ruzzia gains little territory while loosing a lot of men. At t",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-16T13:23:15.968177Z,Such self-hating is a jewish tradition with deep roots,decrease,hold,False +506968,2024-12-17T11:47:42.862915Z,"No need tbh, to much evidence coming out.",hold,decrease,False +797327,2025-12-23T01:15:12.145092Z,They shut down the discord comments lmaoooo,hold,hold,True +797327,2025-12-19T20:26:31.643896Z,It¡¯s okay I forgive you always have respect,hold,hold,True +507792,2024-11-29T19:38:10.361094Z,"What are all these bot accounts doing, just buying and then selling directly?",decrease,hold,False +253591,2024-10-16T15:22:51.499724Z,The border bill had strings attached. Details that forced him to reject the bill. It was NOT an actual border bill. Seve,hold,hold,True +507792,2024-12-04T17:01:26.412386Z,Seems like there might be some free money on the table at UMA. Guess more people should buy UMA tokens and vote.,hold,decrease,False +528977,2025-06-10T15:17:42.711564Z,This is very simple: redeem 'no' in 20 days.,decrease,hold,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1fc93fc25dd9998a6be9c2e546bc82223e3203f4 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +506968,2024-12-19T09:30:43.550634Z,Aenews profits on swing all gone amazing! Truth will win,flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-18T03:20:41.297633Z,I feel like your a psy op to make yes side seem dumber,flip,hold,False +797327,2025-12-23T14:19:53.132553Z,"I YOU READIN THIS SHAYNE COPLAN, YOU A BITCH!!!!!!!!",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-14T12:36:47.081151Z,"when Polymarket had add ""the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory"", they destroyed this market",flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-16T20:22:25.014822Z,I think i see people memeing on muslims about it,flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-10T16:36:42.721675Z,Syrian Hermon is inside the DMZ which isn¡¯t internationally recognized as Syrian land,flip,hold,False +532741,2025-06-18T10:21:46.627845Z,Kanye told Trump about the j's Trump knows the truth and wont help em,hold,hold,True +507792,2024-11-30T17:41:06.350095Z,never gambling on the middle east again,flip,hold,False +539788,2025-05-15T19:41:44.465367Z,Trump Putin meating very soon they said,flip,hold,False +507792,2024-12-02T22:53:03.377572Z,"its litteraly above ""final review"" and stuff it says it will resolve to yes",hold,flip,False +506968,2024-12-08T17:33:23.821014Z,israel try not to kill someone for 1 week challenge,flip,flip,True +253591,2024-11-04T02:22:44.010297Z,"The easiest way to tell a man doesn't get consistent p*ssy is if they are a ""white guy for harris."" Haha, the most unf*c",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-11T22:29:43.351427Z,"As you should. Switch sides before it's too late. The vote will obviously end in P4 and soon enough, it's 50/50...",flip,flip,True +551650,2025-06-19T05:21:41.806317Z,cant wait for the 10% daily decay on yes,hold,flip,False +506968,2024-12-20T12:04:42.809226Z,Polymarket intervened to stop an obvious scam from UMA whales and no-holders are mad.,flip,hold,False +507792,2024-11-25T15:25:48.854661Z,Al-Arabiya: The U.S. has informed Lebanese officials that a declaration of the war's end will be made in the coming hour,flip,flip,True +507792,2024-12-03T23:49:32.807888Z,"The top holders are still buying yes shares, sheeesh",hold,flip,False +797327,2025-12-23T22:36:33.927607Z,"hopeless gambler waiting for the christmas spirit from the post-modern angels, lol",hold,hold,True +507792,2024-11-19T12:58:14.449768Z,YEStards keep falling for it over and over again,hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-09T11:17:28.888649Z,you should have seen hezbollah market,flip,hold,False +253591,2024-11-04T03:23:41.629146Z,trump supportter will lose all their money on nov 5!!,hold,flip,False +532741,2025-06-17T16:03:49.626746Z,"By ""We"" He means American equipment you retards",flip,hold,False +507792,2024-12-04T10:50:55.204391Z,"Guys, here is another thinking: when the proposal happened and stupidly approved, it drove yes share up and lots of ppl,",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-18T07:07:52.874218Z,"skystar001 sold 13,000 Yes at 34.7c",flip,flip,True +506968,2024-12-15T02:36:55.589929Z,Y'all bitching because you're losing money. I ain't get no responses,hold,hold,True +507792,2024-12-04T16:56:37.538785Z,"""The OO lets users assert statements as true, backed by economic incentives."" Could these economic incentives be the pro",hold,hold,True +797327,2025-12-23T00:15:06.504857Z,"Wtf, look at the voting. It was 86 vs 14 few minutes ago",hold,flip,False +532741,2025-06-18T13:05:32.583959Z,USA will only show teeth but won't bite Iran,flip,hold,False +797327,2025-12-20T14:34:45.528556Z,"good catch, and you're prob right, good job keeping it respectful bro",hold,hold,True +507792,2024-11-27T00:41:53.842601Z,People are that stubborn they¡¯d prefer $0 then to just sell the no shares now,hold,flip,False +506968,2024-12-18T09:41:11.439468Z,"If we want to hold on to the end and win, we have to influence UMA Discord, to speak effectively and rationally, speak, ",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-18T22:56:41.821262Z,fake polymarket confirmation FUD / fake Golan height FUD / Twitter Pressurization to pump and dump on new buyers / using,flip,flip,True +506968,2024-12-09T20:59:44.703225Z,"if you enter a buffer zone and call it yours, this is ""Taking control"", it's not buffer anymore",flip,flip,True +506968,2024-12-18T06:54:22.193278Z,"Large amount, mass scale, full blast invasion, similar to Lebanon with 300+ tanks and 3k army men. Is that too much to a",flip,hold,False +532741,2025-06-17T21:35:54.863935Z,JOSINT says planes in the air.,flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-11T17:59:45.624519Z,Israel never established control on any portion beyond the DMZ,flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-12T01:43:31.208001Z,"They will Dump again(70k) ,all No buyers be cautious.",hold,flip,False +532741,2025-06-21T17:01:13.062356Z,You really think if they had an order it would be public?,flip,flip,True +797327,2025-12-23T00:09:28.256715Z,We are 4 days after ending cmon,hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-11T22:51:17.973184Z,"The mention of Golan in the market rule, is probably to exclude the occupation of Golan by Israel as a reason to resolve",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-15T17:23:06.329927Z,"Israel has definitely expanding the borders outside of golan heights, see the results here: https://syria.liveuamap.com/",flip,hold,False +532741,2025-06-21T17:28:43.114822Z,This. Its amazing what positioning of equipment can do to dete,flip,hold,False +532741,2025-06-18T20:50:37.826467Z,"Trump talks big but acts pragmatically. No US troops killed, no nuclear breakout, no public casus belli = no real trigge",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-14T08:36:01.563289Z,"Even if Israel claims the 1974 treaty is void, the market focuses on actions, not just intent or justification. Crossing",flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-09T23:18:20.123778Z,SO TRUE! PLEASE BUY MORE NO AND CASH OUT ON THIS RARE OPPURUNITY!,flip,flip,True +506968,2024-12-13T19:28:13.608697Z,"Why isn't Yes 50 points ahead, you might ask?",flip,hold,False +797327,2025-12-19T19:24:56.221645Z,"It's absurd to imagine people in the administration are not staked to Yes. But, I'm crazy and took No.",hold,flip,False +797327,2025-12-22T21:18:43.731822Z,this guy kept buying lol i think he gonna spend $8 mil,hold,flip,False +506968,2024-12-12T21:13:44.128266Z,ok then buy yes at these cheap prices,hold,flip,False +537194,2025-04-28T12:28:42.723068Z,"""planet earth"" and ""earth"" are also not the same",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-15T17:28:50.968525Z,are we looking at the same map,flip,flip,True +797327,2025-12-22T01:36:29.545558Z,"""we'll use the power of friendship"" ahhhh comment section????",flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-13T21:48:38.023703Z,"I think you meant ""objective"" but you're right, whether something is an invasion is subjective.",flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-09T19:00:47.634067Z,"What do you expect to find, UNDOF is within the Golan Heights, it doesn't define their border as the heights go past it",flip,hold,False +532741,2025-06-20T13:33:40.275624Z,NoTards literally don¡¯t know what they¡¯re looking at. The planes are taken off the tarmac to PROTECT THEM FROM IRANIAN,hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-15T22:59:07.405669Z,i'm here for knowledge not money,flip,hold,False +797327,2025-12-19T22:29:47.062513Z,"a photo of an accusation, nothing illegal.",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-12T08:20:19.557517Z,And you¡¯re still keeping your position?,flip,hold,False +532741,2025-06-18T18:23:26.948203Z,US military action against Iran by Friday is out :),flip,flip,True +506968,2024-12-10T17:41:11.869799Z,What happens if final review is p4 (too early) ? since its final how could it conclude to yes or no given that the quest,flip,hold,False +532741,2025-06-17T21:44:07.176192Z,No he¡¯s saying you think people actually eat papa johns,hold,hold,True +532741,2025-06-22T01:50:21.900546Z,just redeploying capital. No big deal. More upside always around the corner,hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-10T07:46:41.833441Z,"Times of Israel: The Syrian security source says Israeli troops reached Qatana, which is 10 kilometers (6 miles) into Sy",flip,hold,False +253591,2024-11-06T14:40:42.676943Z,"https://oracle.uma.xyz/ really strange. if i go to ""settled"" the site just freezes",hold,hold,True +507792,2024-12-01T00:51:04.266221Z,uma voters dont make anything off this market last time i checked,flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-14T11:32:19.681963Z,we need a source that Umm Batnah is in the Golan Heights,flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-18T17:05:41.989542Z,"So is Shayne your savior or just another ""scammer""?",flip,hold,False +253591,2024-11-04T14:05:27.149932Z,"Kamala voters, if you don't like money you might as well donate them to me 0x0B7055D1285840c62f719B406A61f714b6927727",hold,flip,False +512340,2024-12-09T14:48:00.696322Z,"No sadly, he will be added to others, see the rules",hold,flip,False +506968,2024-12-08T16:34:38.470719Z,however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.,flip,hold,False +532741,2025-06-16T23:26:35.476885Z,"Iran is getting pounded so hard right now, it can't be only Isreal doing it",flip,hold,False +507792,2024-12-04T17:39:58.100414Z,not rich but has enough money to enjoy in polymarket,hold,hold,True +532741,2025-06-19T23:09:34.545933Z,"HIFI31, HIFI32, HIFI33, and HIFI34 airborne",hold,flip,False +253591,2024-10-27T07:11:58.136961Z,"yeah, its not a vote counting.",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-17T17:06:11.643794Z,it didnt the first 3 times but im sure the 4th is the charm...,flip,flip,True +512340,2024-12-28T15:36:10.531295Z,how is simion still 14% ??? what is this market lmao,hold,flip,False +506968,2024-12-19T08:35:05.566319Z,"It's time for you to be brave to leave SCAM SQUAD and keep you money before you loose it all, truth is winning you have ",hold,flip,False +506968,2024-12-16T19:04:18.078424Z,BREAKING NEWS FROM AL MAYADEEN: ISRAEL WILL FALL AT THE HANDS OF NASRALLAH. GREAT LEADER DID NOT DIE IN BOMBING. MOHAMME,flip,flip,True +506968,2024-12-09T20:21:17.997916Z,"What counts as Israeli territory? ""For the purposes of this market, the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory"".",flip,hold,False +253591,2024-11-04T16:50:01.290503Z,"If ever the AI God sees these comment section, humanity is fucked.",hold,hold,True +797327,2025-12-22T00:07:09.110097Z,"well, come back in some minutes and see for yourself",flip,hold,False +532741,2025-06-21T17:51:17.759072Z,"I love blind money-YES bettors jump on every headline and ¡®breaking¡¯ alert, ignoring diplomacy and strategy entirely. ",flip,hold,False +797327,2025-12-20T03:51:33.100629Z,Bro what if I go back I literally told everyone to have respect to other people I can show you like 5 cases,hold,hold,True +507792,2024-11-18T23:58:27.469813Z,lol you don't need to do that they already don't read past headlines,hold,hold,True +507792,2024-12-04T03:55:55.942325Z,"dude, it's done deal. I just don't sell it because what's the point, anyway the vote is against us",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-09T17:53:39.268043Z,"Nice video of IDF soldiers, boots on the ground in Quneitra.",flip,flip,True +519075,2025-03-06T10:52:46.740861Z,"People will vote out of spite. I understand that most people think that CG voters are stupid, a certain amount are for s",hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-18T04:48:32.692683Z,this is the same source ISW mentioned in there report today btw,flip,hold,False +507792,2024-11-28T14:29:44.726725Z,Israel is still bombarding South Lebanon and HEzbollah has not come out to announce a ceasefire officially even though b,hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-16T03:34:25.571272Z,I'm going to donate my profits to support Israeli border defense in Syria.,flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-11T22:34:20.769331Z,"The concept of a buffer zone, or DMZ is that it doesn't belong to any country. It's a neutral area. Which is why accordi",flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-18T10:04:45.498872Z,"my dear Charlie83 , explain your evidence and view in UMA discord please",hold,hold,True +512340,2024-12-12T18:03:33.124521Z,honestly fuck this market and the romanian elections,hold,flip,False +506968,2024-12-17T02:45:53.532126Z,"It's crazy that Melania keep buying about 40K NO shares in the past 12 hours, but the Yes price still remain not crash, ",hold,flip,False +532741,2025-06-18T15:26:18.586307Z,*Checks conditions for market resolving* does not say anything about war starting.,flip,hold,False +507792,2024-12-04T17:45:01.072471Z,"Can someone please exactly explain, how do you ""buy"" UMA votes and how much do they cost? Or how do you even get them?",hold,hold,True +507792,2024-11-29T16:24:33.362466Z,"No but if the existence of t he promise is in question, its pretty good evidence that it never existed in the first plac",flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-18T17:27:35.984643Z,"Polymarket CEO Liked my tweet from yesterday. Don't worry, the matter is being handled.",flip,hold,False +507792,2024-11-28T13:45:52.895304Z,Can anyone point me to a source saying Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire? The only thing I see is an agreement with Lebano,flip,hold,False +506968,2024-12-09T19:17:03.317856Z,Golan heights 2 can go from Mount Hermon to Damascus,flip,flip,True +506968,2024-12-11T22:36:44.708635Z,Imagine doing that for 17% profit.,flip,flip,True +797327,2025-12-22T22:10:53.160345Z,we cant compete with this forsight guy he close to 8mil,hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-17T00:50:29.673682Z,IDF plans to launch broader Syrian campaign. Tick tock,flip,hold,False +532741,2025-06-16T22:51:59.563582Z,I dont think its just another Israeli attack: Trump never said anything like that when Israel attacked. It would only ma,flip,flip,True +532741,2025-06-19T19:19:21.109944Z,Iran will be struck within 2 weeks,hold,hold,True +507792,2024-12-04T19:31:21.514466Z,"Scam, we need to prosecute UMA and polymarket for market manipulation.",hold,hold,True +554695,2025-06-23T17:45:32.692015Z,You don¡¯t understand these dynamics,hold,hold,True +797327,2025-12-22T16:40:46.040693Z,"No buyers buying at 0,1 cents, meanwhile i invested 3000 dollar while it was 35 cent for no smh",hold,flip,False +253591,2024-10-07T19:57:27.121932Z,"Wake up americans, the world is laughing at you for even doubting this",hold,hold,True +532741,2025-06-20T20:34:41.874017Z,trump is even open for a ceasefire now which he was not open to before lol,flip,flip,True +797327,2025-12-23T01:15:12.145092Z,They shut down the discord comments lmaoooo,hold,hold,True +537194,2025-06-03T07:30:18.191313Z,"Ukraine won¡¯t forfeit territories while there¡¯s parity, ruzzia gains little territory while loosing a lot of men. At t",hold,hold,True +797327,2025-12-19T20:26:31.643896Z,It¡¯s okay I forgive you always have respect,hold,hold,True +519075,2025-05-17T15:15:33.080741Z,"maestre, in ce bula esti? cum nu reusesti sa vezi mobilizarea din societate?",hold,flip,False +506968,2024-12-17T11:47:42.862915Z,"No need tbh, to much evidence coming out.",hold,flip,False +507792,2024-12-04T17:01:26.412386Z,Seems like there might be some free money on the table at UMA. Guess more people should buy UMA tokens and vote.,hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-15T13:29:17.994615Z,"Tired, check whatever map u can find, This is BBC:https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c390j9x9w9go wiki:https://en.wikip",hold,hold,True +532741,2025-06-20T13:14:54.420811Z,You have no idea how I'm trading this.,flip,hold,False +253591,2024-10-16T15:22:51.499724Z,The border bill had strings attached. Details that forced him to reject the bill. It was NOT an actual border bill. Seve,hold,hold,True +506968,2024-12-09T19:32:48.646294Z,"""defense minister plans to control"" Oh so they dont control it?",flip,hold,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..917ba6584b2f01174a2e212af6c0ff48ac3c8d35 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,241 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +532741,2025-06-16T23:52:29.125827Z,US military action against Iran before July?,what if donny just in the situation room to watch nba finals,flip,hold,False,True,95.253,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T19:14:26.092345Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Don't sell YES for under 50 cents now boys .. fireworks are coming !,increase,increase,True,True,161.4138,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T12:58:48.902796Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Have you ever wondered why the Golan was even included in the rules? The answer is simple: the territory occupied by Isr,flip,increase,False,True,2329.7292,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T01:54:32.746322Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"The mechanism of the predictor is a natural means of manipulation by large households. The more tickets you hold, the mo",hold,hold,True,True,40.68,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T17:22:55.302541Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The clarification deciding that an invasion has to be led by the president himself is beautiful.,increase,increase,True,True,1937.9575,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T13:18:02.124041Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,they already admited they took control outside DMZ and israeli pm admited it they gave it as a source in last vote didn,decrease,flip,False,True,73.6947,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-03T18:43:11.850112Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,"The IDF announced this evening draft orders for 60,000 soldiers in the coming days. Netanyahu has canceled his trip to A",increase,increase,True,True,1424.6989,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T17:45:00.188243Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Either I win and we all live or you win and we all die, GL",increase,increase,True,True,495.04,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T03:50:52.697786Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Do you say anything besides ¡°read the rules¡±,flip,hold,False,True,44.6621,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T09:35:42.453335Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Rebels are savages. They will not spare the jews. Israel cannot risk another october 7th. Mega buffer zone is coming,flip,increase,False,True,26926.1765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T16:54:20.232152Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"NO holder only survive cuz ""the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory."" prepare yourselves for an ground position in ",hold,increase,False,True,2326.0197,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T09:30:49.474931Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,IDF Spokesperson in Arabic: Reports circulating in some media outlets claiming that IDF forces are advancing or approach,decrease,increase,False,True,26926.1765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T14:11:07.509568Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Why are people still buying yes?,increase,hold,False,True,2132.4375,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T14:19:28.628677Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"""It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so""",decrease,decrease,True,True,507.86,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T15:49:39.635487Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"trump is israels puppet he's been flipflopping on this for 3 days straight now, goes from calling for peace to sending t",increase,decrease,False,True,234.5839,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527882,2025-03-18T22:47:32.742423Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?,"What a nice show. ""Hey let's call for two hours so we look good in global news""",hold,increase,False,True,225.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-11T19:06:47.766133Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"you are silly , hezbollah (who killed over 4k palestinians for Assad in syria) is an iranian proxy , Iran is fundemental",hold,increase,False,True,794.0185,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T16:16:19.295021Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Loss 500. Sell everything buy ""yes"" you can make 1000 in 45 minutes",flip,decrease,False,True,2329.7292,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-01T01:41:39.988585Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"The last dispute was decided ""too early"" at around 70% I think. Some of those ""too early"" will convert to YES, but I'm u",decrease,decrease,True,True,88.9492,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T23:57:28.143942Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Chat should I invest more if so into what ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,4.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T00:40:41.315162Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel has a pattern of acting very premptive, so for us it might not be clear that their were any provocation at all. T",decrease,decrease,True,True,51.9425,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T07:40:06.290705Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"i'm sorry but you're being scammed, you just don't realize it yet",hold,flip,False,True,14905.0029,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T19:20:37.166275Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,one of the biggest yes holder dumped,flip,decrease,False,True,22.2248,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T15:33:07.903696Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Now I need I need to tell you that Guam is nowhere close to Iran and it takes more than 12 hours for the b2 bombers to g,flip,decrease,False,True,177.9424,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T23:48:00.252199Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,I genuinely don't understand why you risk it all for pennies,decrease,decrease,True,True,25.2,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T16:41:06.441942Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,the extremists in israel would not be happy if israel takes the moon but they dont get the sun... syrian land is of litt,decrease,increase,False,True,391.9973,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:40:05.659925Z,US military action against Iran before July?,You know just 1 tinky minky lala little bomb then its over for no holders especially car rip ??,flip,decrease,False,True,785.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-05T11:48:54.918582Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,dude has been president already. And a pretty good one at that. Non of this happened. Stop watching too much CNN.,hold,increase,False,True,1686.64,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T19:42:40.929582Z,US military action against Iran before July?,alot of clown spreading fake new in here trump isnt gonna do shit buddy he would of murda the leader of iran already if ,increase,increase,True,True,22.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T05:19:01.967142Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,This is great! I hope they keep buying no. YES shares are gonna be cheaper,flip,increase,False,True,26926.1765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T22:43:07.770374Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"the Golan Widths, expanding to a region near you",hold,hold,True,True,456.71,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T00:29:19.391175Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Who of the ""NO"" holders were able to vote in this dispute? I couldn't.",hold,hold,True,True,49.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T11:12:48.549403Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,they did admit to operating outside of the buffer zone,flip,increase,False,True,27116.0855,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T23:05:05.178839Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Jim Cramer just announced that Trump will bomb Iran, you know what to do!",hold,flip,False,True,1027.1,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T20:32:43.703905Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Trump asks the stars of the Italian football team Juventus if a woman would be able to make it into their starting eleve,decrease,hold,False,True,95.6178,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +558663,2025-07-04T08:01:36.683797Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,Trump says Israel has agreed to a 60-day ceasefire plan with Hamas. I think the U.S president is a valid source for conf,increase,increase,True,True,24.978,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-06T15:09:26.138423Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,how does this platform work? if Bolojan will be the PNL candidate will Nicolae Ciuca profile switch to Bolojan?,increase,decrease,False,True,8.392,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T22:44:08.849922Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,There¡¯s lots of sympathy towards him from normal people so I wonder how it¡¯s going to play out,hold,decrease,False,True,281.346,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-27T00:15:28.550765Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Hezbollah officials announced last week that they approved of the US-backed deal and were waiting Israel¡¯s response. H,decrease,decrease,True,True,67.8073,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T09:13:13.529242Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"nothing will happen for the next 2 days, if you think otherwise go bet on the june 19 or 20 market, you get way better v",flip,increase,False,True,66.2958,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T16:54:48.568712Z,US military action against Iran before July?,US OFFICIALS SAY TRUMP 'SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING' STRIKE ON IRAN: AXIOS,hold,increase,False,True,93.6366,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T17:22:09.633835Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,what happened syria is not invaded,increase,hold,False,True,1.97,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T01:00:13.050736Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Uff I just made Uzbek Pliov with lamb¡­ delicious,flip,hold,False,True,109.7232,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:22:33.790402Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Applause to the absolute madman who bought tons at 1 cent before the bounce,hold,hold,True,True,3819.6727,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T00:09:40.748234Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,biggest no holder dumped 70k share at 18c look at the activity,increase,decrease,False,True,1431.55,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T14:10:21.090145Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"look at the map, hermon is closer to lebanon than to the golan heights. https://syria.liveuamap.com/",decrease,decrease,True,True,6266.3846,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T17:02:10.279185Z,US military action against Iran before July?,No chance for peace in July. US strike very likely ahead of two week negotiation period.,decrease,increase,False,True,897.3567,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T17:31:21.986041Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"why there is mention of Epstein Files Transparency Act, just for bite?",increase,decrease,False,True,3.13,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T22:35:02.031163Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Damascus has fallen to the Israeli invasion,decrease,flip,False,True,10.3,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T14:10:45.433561Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Average yes holder that hasn't read the rules,hold,decrease,False,True,89.91,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T04:51:47.094644Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"IDF, 11th: ¡°The forces of the 474th Brigade Combat Team continue to operate at control points in the buffer zone ... [a",flip,increase,False,True,23000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T22:34:31.585036Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Wtf how is it possible to be like 98% yes? Also, 16m total but 130 address? Each put on 100k to vote? This isnt right a",hold,decrease,False,True,5.54,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T16:02:37.127051Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"The DOJ did publish the documents on December 19, 2025, but all of them were either already public or heavily redacted, ",hold,flip,False,True,29.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-15T13:30:13.146347Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Or NO holders can hold their breath for senile Trump actually managing to bring about succesfully a deal, wahahaha that ",hold,increase,False,True,163.9966,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:20:34.962016Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Money hasn't disappeared, it's just a different way",hold,hold,True,True,226.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T13:22:55.696642Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Wheres the 90% harris everyone kept talking about? ????,hold,increase,False,True,22.11,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T15:31:14.842492Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Trust the plan, greater israel is unstoppable",decrease,increase,False,True,3996.13,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T17:43:23.682991Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,A bunch of illiterate people bet seeing the context thinking they were getting a bond for 99cents. They fucked around an,increase,hold,False,True,32.7466,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T18:43:21.454086Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israeli raids target military sites in Latakia city, coinciding with the Military Operations Administration's control of",hold,increase,False,True,456.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T23:13:40.799654Z,US military action against Iran before July?,i dont understand why it's going down if they are about to attack in iran,increase,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-26T08:24:49.887015Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,are you high? trump was 100 relatable and likeable,increase,decrease,False,True,230.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554012,2025-06-20T21:36:11.639774Z,US military action against Iran by Sunday?,Markets will close in 2 hrs 24 minutes,decrease,decrease,True,True,90.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T22:03:50.268674Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,surely you will buy more than $10 of No when its on sale for you for 3c?,decrease,decrease,True,True,4001.13,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T23:21:51.559171Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel has no more excuses for entering Syria, rebel leader Julani says in first major TV interview https://www.jpost.co",increase,flip,False,True,931.39,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T03:01:32.374081Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"He doesn¡¯t, that¡¯s why he¡¯s down $200",increase,increase,True,True,5.955,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T14:24:46.556328Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Do you know what ""al-Julani"" means?",increase,hold,False,True,2484.1511,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T00:57:44.022682Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Well I¡¯ve pulled out! See you at the loosing goon-o-thon boys!,increase,decrease,False,True,28.6667,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T18:40:45.953259Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Bro im holding for the payout at the end of the month,hold,hold,True,True,247.9,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T15:40:02.733778Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Literally going to 70+ tonight. Potential for involvement tonight, if not 1-3 days. Max",increase,increase,True,True,1925.0083,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T18:50:59.885275Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,looks at 0xE5f10DF4357F91Ec328C whales had enough of this NO scam BS sell you no before it's too late,increase,flip,False,True,7080.9744,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T18:03:31.923741Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Trump remains open to diplomatic solutions,decrease,hold,False,True,637.8138,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T17:33:03.426415Z,US military action against Iran before July?,NEW: Trump¡¯s National Security Advisor/ Secretary of State are meeting today with the UK¡¯s Foreign Secretary amid the ,increase,increase,True,True,1925.0083,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-18T08:11:32.231498Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,cause UMA saves the day? Yeah they do coz of that im not denying it but if anything insignificant is released and this r,flip,decrease,False,True,340.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +558663,2025-07-03T16:29:15.210002Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,its 100% Happening only Details are being discussed. If they were against the Ceasefire they would not discuss details,decrease,increase,False,True,30.5936,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T20:21:34.324024Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"I'm very hopeful. Going through uma discord server, mostly are voting NO, and the yes voters cannot even say anything ot",increase,increase,True,True,73.5111,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T20:29:25.491628Z,US military action against Iran before July?,KnurreKnume Tweaking cause he knows he fucked up,increase,decrease,False,True,1168.5641,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T23:45:35.823004Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"""Given the objective to get a ceasefire, trumps departure from g7 is positive"" - https://x.com/firstsquawk/status/193475",flip,increase,False,True,95.253,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T04:56:43.312151Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I was an OG yes holder but wasn¡¯t going to keep holding what was clearly losing,increase,decrease,False,True,23901.5336,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T16:25:10.829652Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"I think they are trying to make people to buy No so they can have liquidity to withdraw money, idk maybe",decrease,decrease,True,True,19.76,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T01:01:02.112434Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"what do yes holders expect to happen to happen in 2 weeks, more than what has happened in the last 2??",flip,decrease,False,True,831.6951,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T11:13:31.957189Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Why the FUCK would IRAN (which is the discretion of khomeini) surrender if it meant that he gets killed? You niggas are ,decrease,decrease,True,True,884.3086,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T20:54:23.903118Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,they've been saying it since 1948,hold,hold,True,True,2625.2756,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T20:28:51.315793Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Free money is for smart people. Dedicate a lunch price only on NO, leave and come back in 3 hours. Worst case scenario y",increase,increase,True,True,73.5111,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-24T20:06:39.380067Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,If it is true it wont count toward a resolution,hold,decrease,False,True,3044.772,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T15:19:12.433489Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,so how do you guys intend to prove its a Millitary offensive meant to invade Syria?,decrease,hold,False,True,435.6611,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T05:37:45.532089Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Polymarket will find itself in a problem if it confirm syrian invasion by israel . Not easy,flip,decrease,False,True,37.9421,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T21:00:16.872668Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"bruh whuut, literally any source will confirm that they have",flip,hold,False,True,27116.0855,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T00:42:04.620403Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,money goes from those who can't read the rules to those who can,flip,hold,False,True,831.6951,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T17:48:40.665557Z,US military action against Iran before July?,ABC News is like israel`s 12 Channel lol,flip,hold,False,True,4016.1347,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T09:28:40.983348Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"On December 1, the IDF and Hezbollah exchanged fire at a church in southern Lebanon: https://x.com/IDF/status/1863289248",hold,hold,True,True,715.7292,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T23:07:21.401448Z,US military action against Iran before July?,?? US Secretary of State Rubio has told European allies the Trump admin¡¯s preferred choice with Iran is a diplomatic de,flip,decrease,False,True,873.031,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-18T22:00:16.986024Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Hold on! Israel is moments away from signing the ceasefire¡­,flip,flip,True,True,93.8,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-01T23:29:10.212879Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"No matter how hard you work, no matter how right you are, sometimes the dragon wins.",decrease,decrease,True,True,7475.406,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T16:55:29.186464Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Welcome to polymarket btw, you're about to learn how it really works",decrease,decrease,True,True,2206.0877,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T23:17:37.104419Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"look up my history, my entry was 10c retard, you're the one who is new here, welcome.",flip,increase,False,True,2946.6025,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T18:28:39.984323Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Hey they ate the wall tryna scare people? :D,hold,hold,True,True,28855.1091,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T19:43:50.711706Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I can't argue with you. Any presence of military personnel on foreign territory cannot be done without control. And the ,increase,increase,True,True,42.5415,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T03:17:57.625714Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Cut it with the outrage though. Just admit you're a gambler who wants to feel hope for a day. Accept that you need hope ,decrease,decrease,True,True,10846.0934,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T04:41:12.804329Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,But qunitra is without any question Syrian territory which Israel doesn't claim,increase,decrease,False,True,1737.112,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T21:09:46.263025Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"I remember when yes holders were buying at 90c for a ""guaranteed"" 10% profit",decrease,hold,False,True,815.4339,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T13:42:07.745567Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"So, who is going to pay the $750 to dispute this result?",decrease,hold,False,True,392.37,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T10:15:47.642279Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"denizz there is this which Syria is Syria right now, there are a lot of Syrias, so there cannot be no occupation because",decrease,hold,False,True,450.5983,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T19:05:50.621118Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,congrats on your profits brother. lets hope this turns out good,hold,hold,True,True,12.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T00:10:04.313433Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Remember every P4 vote makes it harder to get a P2 vote bc the bar for evidence keeps getting raised ;),flip,decrease,False,True,831.6951,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-03T23:46:16.499488Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,You can't start with a 100% loss bro,hold,decrease,False,True,239.51,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T14:14:20.126767Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,another Yes proposal makes no difference at all,increase,hold,False,True,1258.2005,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T16:23:13.014103Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,This will be the best litmus test as to whether Polymarket's rules or the outcome dispute processes even matter.,flip,decrease,False,True,118.8851,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T17:34:58.569773Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Bruh for this post, GOLAN HEIGHTS IS ISRAELI TERRITORY DAMN MAN",decrease,hold,False,True,0.6722,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T07:22:06.366463Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Good luck piece of shit fuck heads with pre existing medical conditions,hold,hold,True,True,421.4998,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T20:56:02.745177Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Breaking: Trump to thughshake soon - Cnn,flip,decrease,False,True,2.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T01:02:44.344358Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"lol, you dont understand israel...",flip,increase,False,True,831.6951,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-09T19:12:49.060591Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,Bro Yanukovych was an angel compare to Zelensky the whole country went to shit after 2014,increase,hold,False,True,5483.7463,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T04:20:24.266807Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"A message to all my investment follows: This is currently super undervalued, would consider DCA, Nice value play conside",increase,increase,True,True,77302.3612,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-30T05:01:30.069883Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"kamala is going to win, easy moeny",decrease,flip,False,True,49.99,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T08:42:47.851223Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Ggs, trump for the victory, if someone want to tip I will be happy",decrease,increase,False,True,27.95,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:18:14.123001Z,US military action against Iran before July?,I¡¯m curious if you guys support Iran or Israel in this?,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T04:40:28.590083Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The rules state the golan heights are Israeli territory because not all countries recognize the Israeli golan heights as,increase,hold,False,True,1737.112,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T00:52:29.287761Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Not temporary, it has to ESTABLISH meaning like what they use to do: settlers",increase,hold,False,True,63.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T23:30:59.017533Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,??Whales are fool they can make more then expected money via No Lol.,decrease,increase,False,True,44.8899,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T12:59:55.990504Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,cool then we both agree its not in the list of files and from a source that does not need to be checked,increase,hold,False,True,117.28,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T18:21:47.550046Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,My average price is $.10. Can you please pump it to X5? ?????,flip,decrease,False,True,138.3711,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T21:41:17.369831Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Says the retarded who buy 3.8k to make pennies get mogged ????,increase,hold,False,True,8.72,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T22:36:28.512042Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Stop panicking lmao and refill some yes,decrease,increase,False,True,432.17,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T20:52:58.777266Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,can you tip me I'm going broke I'm sorry for doubting you :(,increase,decrease,False,True,7021.9908,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T08:22:11.004846Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,That's Sylvie Laufeydottir from the Marvel Cinematic Universe.,flip,hold,False,True,171.9053,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T18:20:29.313416Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Everything is possible. On a place of that 99c bettors, I'd rather exited to take the liquidity from less dangerous mark",hold,decrease,False,True,816.8412,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T11:59:49.107404Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"They have the weekend in front of them, they will lose hope and remember nothing ever happens come monday",decrease,decrease,True,True,1354.9596,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T23:39:00.630241Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"I consider that is no invasion but, the best chances, at this momentm are with YES shares because: 1. If you have NO sh",flip,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T16:00:53.891453Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"this is not going to 0 folks, it was a fun run but IDF is literally outside UNDOF lines, and they havent began a offensi",flip,decrease,False,True,103.0007,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-30T14:54:57.962442Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kamala isn't a leader lol she's a puppet.,hold,increase,False,True,249.5676,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T12:13:47.270479Z,US military action against Iran before July?,That is a flying speed square :O,decrease,hold,False,True,3.5982,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T07:34:30.638495Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,achi tishmor at a kesef shelch ata mafsid,flip,decrease,False,True,4311.924,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T22:43:18.469901Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"¡° For the purposes of this market, the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory.¡±",flip,hold,False,True,7990.3492,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T18:33:16.573703Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"People not reading the (stupid) ""Golan Heights"" rule and continuously posting the same information about IDF troops in t",flip,increase,False,True,60.3719,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-25T05:34:21.975556Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,I purchased 69.69 shares at .69 to congratulate the people of Israel on their military victory. who will match?,decrease,increase,False,True,643.9568,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T00:06:19.921389Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"2/157 addresses revealed, yestards are already selling... bruh",decrease,decrease,True,True,251.2358,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T22:42:27.150456Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Now what did we learn, Yes bros?",increase,hold,False,True,1373.1575,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T10:09:06.076419Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel is creating a safe space for its position in Lebanon for its own security, no occupation",decrease,hold,False,True,450.5983,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T05:34:45.605049Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Its going to be close but we got this,decrease,decrease,True,True,55714.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T08:39:05.089945Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,the only way to end an armstice is to invade https://www.newarab.com/news/israels-netanyahu-declares-end-syria-border-ag,hold,increase,False,True,456.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T01:56:09.041949Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"look at the activity of the latest ""YES"" purchases, they look like pure bots, they have no volume or nickname XD wtf",increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T04:13:42.927167Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"So the game is: try to buy no's and manipulate the UMA vote, so that it does not resolve to yes (yet)?",hold,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T21:56:30.612369Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,did anyone receive a response from polymarket by email? or even a automated message?,hold,hold,True,True,251.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:14:15.310481Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Who remembers the PresidentKamala user texting here every second for a week. Where is he now? Loser retard and fat for s,decrease,hold,False,True,1178.96,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T16:19:46.074271Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Always place for a sweet cat on NO side,increase,hold,False,True,163.983,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554695,2025-06-23T18:55:06.679916Z,Another US military action against Iran by Monday?,More time in the WH = more likely they will attack back,decrease,increase,False,True,1255.5752,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T19:09:51.261004Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"all hinges on the probability of uma changing its ways and the mechanisms for that, there have been more contentious mar",flip,decrease,False,True,15.9263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T11:43:32.782685Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Weren't you the guy asking for that a few hours ago? If so, check that thread because I gave it to you and I've posted i",flip,hold,False,True,1042.4866,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T15:49:10.619831Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"never be a bag holder, buy at the right time, good time to buy yes",flip,increase,False,True,103.0007,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T21:16:10.707492Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The IDF said its deployment of troops to the buffer zone was a temporary measure, but it could end up staying there for ",hold,decrease,False,True,456.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T05:52:28.793694Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Joy reid already saying kamala was not elected because she is a women of color ??,decrease,hold,False,True,2467.0997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T13:27:49.552529Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,GUYS COPE A BIT MORE IN THE COMMENTS AND THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESOLVE TO NO! (you should sell before your no is worthles,increase,flip,False,True,1162.93,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T18:32:32.646643Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,OH NO MY BET WENT DOWN FROM 90c TO 85c IM TOTALLY SCREWED NOW HELPPPPP,decrease,decrease,True,True,24.4,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T20:47:27.948346Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"I don't want u guys to go broke, but the underdogs should win this one",flip,decrease,False,True,10000.001,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T00:00:24.504135Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,when do we get the results? XDDDD,flip,hold,False,True,236.85,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T15:24:19.174171Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,So the b2 if on route to Iran will arrive at approx 6-7 am local time¡­ not happening today,increase,hold,False,True,89.4034,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T17:53:23.999526Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Guys I'm really happy for having a document to handle those liars golan bullshit, 3 mins to check what's golan and what'",hold,hold,True,True,5338.6249,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-22T00:33:04.632287Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Lost $2k here but gained $15-30k on Monday!,hold,decrease,False,True,1833.709,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T12:43:23.069443Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"all of these in golan , read the news",decrease,decrease,True,True,73.6947,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T06:17:53.017513Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"There are no buys, only sells, something fishy is going on, I exited break even",flip,decrease,False,True,1.443,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T23:59:22.733826Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"So liquidity traders VS old NO, who hasn't excited, and justice protectors, like us",increase,hold,False,True,508.9712,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T01:57:54.064561Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Be kind and ask a Yes holder how their day was,hold,hold,True,True,1027.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T23:07:31.498331Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"true, its been voted P4 3 times now, it is very much resolvable.",flip,hold,False,True,2946.6025,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T00:32:50.398831Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"that could be, but raids arent part of the question, its just any control",decrease,hold,False,True,1896.64,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T19:55:48.370747Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,definition of invasion as per cambridge dictionary: an occasion when an army or country uses force to enter and take con,flip,hold,False,True,177.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T00:55:40.397409Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"We ain't done yet brother, buckle the fuck up",hold,increase,False,True,243.5053,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T16:06:18.133306Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,2 days ago israel sayed only in border than full golan height than they denies DMZ claim than they admit it now they den,hold,increase,False,True,0.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T15:22:23.708094Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Because they are continuously blocking nuclear inspectors and unwilling to agree to non nuclear proliferation deals?,hold,hold,True,True,275.6575,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +558663,2025-07-04T11:36:49.996366Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"Yesterday's bet resolved to ""YES"", why would this one be any different?",flip,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +558663,2025-07-03T16:36:36.279078Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"According to the report, the terrorist organization is expected to submit its response to the mediators before Friday ev",decrease,increase,False,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T20:48:59.413919Z,US military action against Iran before July?,even if the us attacks iran IT WONT BE PUBLIC and the us wont be blamed for it ITS TOO MUCH RISK FOR THEM,flip,increase,False,True,10.35,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T09:34:38.214067Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"On Friday, Araghchi told Iranian state television that Tehran will not hold talks ¡°with any party¡± until Israel ceases",increase,decrease,False,True,2923.5683,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T23:25:30.585045Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"also a reminder that there have been 3 back to back P4, and this new vote is literally 2 days after the last one, what c",flip,decrease,False,True,2946.6025,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-04-28T13:02:11.196836Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,"Ukraine is ready for LASTING peace - Sybiga, if they agree, it should be count. Market should explode.",decrease,increase,False,True,142.3782,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T13:48:56.455969Z,US military action against Iran before July?,We buying these yes dips. It's back to 70 in 4 hours.,increase,increase,True,True,1925.0083,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-21T08:24:59.380964Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"either he has inside info, which I doubt because he would be hitting the bids at 40c/60c and also betting on other Israe",increase,decrease,False,True,7231.69,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T21:13:44.128266Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,ok then buy yes at these cheap prices,increase,flip,False,True,589.414,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:46:33.807409Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,what will happen like ? is it a wallet drainer,hold,decrease,False,True,185.0118,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T16:34:01.562203Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Just getting a read of the room,flip,hold,False,True,280.675,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T10:12:52.824107Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"sure thing, Iran¡¯s representative condemned the ¡°aggression and invasion by the Israeli occupying forces""",flip,hold,False,True,27116.0855,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-06-03T02:58:00.171061Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,"even the ""moderates"" only want the hostages returned before continuing the ethnic cleansing. Theirs is the attitude of """,hold,increase,False,True,104.84,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T08:56:00.813751Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,just some random guy who buys 1 share in literally everything,increase,hold,False,True,35.9721,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T19:23:02.173655Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,2 hours ago - Israeli army has occupied Tal Al-Harra in Western Daraa Countryside,flip,increase,False,True,177.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:59:27.841426Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,none of em are trump supporters. hit me. AMERICA,decrease,increase,False,True,64.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T15:15:50.439016Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,naim qassim already said he is willing to surrender,flip,increase,False,True,16.3894,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T21:53:25.058639Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,He is attaching pictures! The game is over,increase,increase,True,True,252.5294,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T19:22:23.709677Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Resolve this. The occupied territories are part of Syria by international law (yes that includes the DMZ). It was over h,hold,increase,False,True,597.55,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-15T07:04:14.420414Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"It seems that the US and Russia have managed to find some kind of point of view, but not yet a definite position, in adv",decrease,decrease,True,True,203.3094,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-26T17:12:16.461829Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I make a lot of money. America is pretty awesome to me.,hold,hold,True,True,46.715,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T14:32:33.219687Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"the highest chance of trump not tacoing is now when he has to support Israel. His past record is very bad; no wall, no d",decrease,decrease,True,True,886.5201,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T04:43:51.794199Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Israel seizes the Syrian-controlled side of Mount Hermon Israeli airstrikes on Damascus and other parts of Syria,hold,increase,False,True,1445.0228,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-29T17:56:26.471571Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,There is no way they don¡¯t reach an agreement at this point within the month,hold,increase,False,True,40.5316,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T05:35:04.185735Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Waiting for Melania to wake up. The market will drop 90 percent.,flip,flip,True,True,2329.7292,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T03:06:43.906491Z,US military action against Iran before July?,no holders why do you guys think trump wont attack Iran,increase,hold,False,True,3049.4764,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T20:06:46.727364Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"if you dont have skin the game, why bother?",increase,decrease,False,True,119.9945,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T00:45:39.015192Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"This is not the first time. Barron trump, some latam country's elections.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2.6666,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-20T12:04:42.809226Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Polymarket intervened to stop an obvious scam from UMA whales and no-holders are mad.,flip,decrease,False,True,489.2917,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-01T15:12:19.045144Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"They can, actually. Some idiots are willing to buy it at 99c with that context on",hold,hold,True,True,5442.4106,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-31T13:50:00.854185Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,Where did you read that Hamas agreed already?,hold,decrease,False,True,72.0012,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-19T20:31:22.305403Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"Bend that shit over KnureKuck, your daily pegging is due!!",hold,hold,True,True,628.11,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T13:17:28.013093Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"In fact, there is no need to pay attention to that kind of news. Just look at the news on the Lebanese National News Age",hold,hold,True,True,715.7292,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T17:11:47.689447Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Because it would mess up the order book, casuing glitches",flip,hold,False,True,13.2439,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T01:27:49.193399Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"A few points about these rules: (1) The rules state Golan Heights is considered Israeli territory. By these rules, anne",decrease,decrease,True,True,1896.64,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T10:53:11.861543Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Heavy bombardments by Hezbollah are expected today (hopefully not!) when Netanyahu approves the agreement with his cabin,flip,hold,False,True,20605.9736,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T16:22:27.240601Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Dems-mentally ill-trans are going to caged after nov 5.,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T18:52:19.359148Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The mood keeps shifting every 2-3 hours but its on a downward trend, unless Israel explicitly invades this is unlikely t",increase,decrease,False,True,53.3651,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T21:01:31.886415Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,no-cels will argue that mount hermon doesnt count because reasons,flip,hold,False,True,177.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T15:26:43.393854Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"as we all know, small fish NO holder, the sharks eat you again",flip,decrease,False,True,46.2064,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T19:44:48.659769Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Hahaha do you have a comedy channel on YouTube to?,hold,hold,True,True,3996.3,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T13:35:46.404292Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Tranny freaks vote for Kamala because they ll have free sex changes.With Trump they ll go back to cages.,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552845,2025-06-23T18:40:34.799107Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,Iran won't officially agree to a ceasefire because it would show so much weakness to their people...They might stop atta,decrease,increase,False,True,244.865,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T09:01:47.464317Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The turbulence of the situation has triggered different situations. As for whether it is an invasion, it is difficult to",hold,decrease,False,True,0.2128,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T15:17:34.082442Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Start buying no guys so I can get better prices shares ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,4.9,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T15:06:34.253434Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I see you're also famous. Smart guy.,flip,hold,False,True,2329.7292,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T21:08:37.059198Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Update: CNN: Trump to give urgent speech soon.,decrease,increase,False,True,69.9666,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-20T11:18:04.701428Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,chances for this to turn into a NO?,hold,decrease,False,True,1048.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T03:15:21.118978Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"incredible yes candle erectile dysfunction, cant get it up",flip,hold,False,True,137.8907,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T22:00:40.836279Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Trump will not rush to make the biggest decision of his life and he will explore at length every way other than direct U,decrease,increase,False,True,2222.2659,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T21:16:24.811091Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,this guy is about to lost 1000 dollarinos so of course he is malding,flip,decrease,False,True,177.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T16:34:38.337563Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Drive demand then concentrate them in the majority holders. Good scam.,decrease,decrease,True,True,500.2077,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T23:16:31.170221Z,US military action against Iran before July?,your PNL is negativ. stop yapping,decrease,decrease,True,True,501.1781,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T22:47:34.577649Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"i guess he wins money if the person disputes once again which happened. So now if the outcome is ""Yes"" the person who di",hold,decrease,False,True,151.4056,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T13:20:40.681756Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,retard of the year goes to alex parker,increase,hold,False,True,71.18,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-05-16T18:33:48.695938Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"I believe Putin's position is not necessarily indicative of bad faith negotiation, but merely a common practice of makin",hold,increase,False,True,91.3333,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T15:09:16.964047Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,which would be weird because I've read research showing that people tend to not gamble less when they lose (unless they ,increase,hold,False,True,19.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-01T19:45:34.753005Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,I already said I wouldnt sell and be on no side till the end,increase,hold,False,True,3.01,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T13:35:35.248093Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,How is Yes at 34.4 when theres a wikipedia about it happening,increase,increase,True,True,16.82,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-04T16:47:53.192929Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,"There is a very targeted attack against Georgescu, Russia Russia hoax, kinda same like with TRUMP! This will get wild in",hold,increase,False,True,83.8542,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T15:05:38.274471Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"I actually support Israel and hope terrorist states like Iran die, but here, looking at the way Trump hadling things - I",hold,decrease,False,True,432.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T23:14:45.087724Z,US military action against Iran before July?,They will probably issue an official statement later why this involvement was necessary etc,decrease,hold,False,True,3318.898,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T11:52:50.453899Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,When is the dispute result revealed?,flip,hold,False,True,68.1937,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-06-27T10:32:30.741394Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,"By the Same article¡­¡­ ¡°As per the report, four Arab states would jointly govern the Gaza Strip in place of Hamas. And",hold,increase,False,True,3.198,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T16:56:37.538785Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"""The OO lets users assert statements as true, backed by economic incentives."" Could these economic incentives be the pro",hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-29T19:11:03.524768Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,"zoldado, you don't have to lie to try to move the markets - in this market al arabiya will do that for you!",increase,hold,False,True,1685.1511,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T05:25:41.986889Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,i mean donate me 50 usd i will buy more no,increase,increase,True,True,14.72,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T12:08:33.954391Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Damn you're delusional as fuck you keep saying gg, the cabinet didn't even meet yet stop manipulating the comment sectio",increase,increase,True,True,14.87,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T16:28:32.937627Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I don't think you understand UMA very well.,flip,decrease,False,True,177.1922,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T21:40:17.694861Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Yes holders go count UMA votes. Bad news coming for you.,decrease,increase,False,True,329.3218,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T20:22:39.522429Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"For me its losing lunch money, or early christmas :), im happy in like both cases XD",increase,hold,False,True,61.0706,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T01:43:54.665681Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,If you let the whales accumulate cheap yes: you lose ¡­. If you don¡¯t let them: you also lose,increase,decrease,False,True,993.9357,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b69668cd7a3e61e2194b3f8dab4ad0a2e3a72f3c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,241 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +506968,2024-12-15T00:19:06.524765Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"what is UMA doing though, people are dying out here",increase,decrease,False,True,931.39,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T19:55:08.401529Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"I give up, it's over. No files are released. Enjoy the 25k I donated to you",increase,flip,False,True,7021.9908,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T17:43:57.161349Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,This bet is silly. Israel is invaing syria and we are all arguing about tecnical details.,decrease,increase,False,True,44.512,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T18:26:28.412542Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"another wave of riding suffering Yes buyers, im getting tired of all this surfing??",flip,decrease,False,True,589.414,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T09:09:32.117764Z,US military action against Iran before July?,This market may resolve to 'yes' from one minute to another in the next 24-48 hours.,increase,increase,True,True,1150.3357,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T12:19:24.757094Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,this is not invasion this is sightseeing lmao,flip,increase,False,True,125.1864,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T15:07:18.764788Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"There is a Turkish saying I like very much. ""Barking dog doesn't bite"". If you are planning an attack you don't say it e",increase,increase,True,True,18.08,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T02:27:02.110135Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"ah shit you cant link tg groups here, its called suriyak_maps",flip,hold,False,True,27116.0855,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T20:16:33.498194Z,US military action against Iran before July?,he js said its 50/50 so it isnt better odds. evidently the odds for yes are better currently,decrease,decrease,True,True,36399.4918,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T16:47:55.516234Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"the Yes holder say same thing last day, its gonna happen rn, rn rn",hold,decrease,False,True,1027.1,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-14T16:24:52.586033Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,"This whole meeting is a ""see told ya"" from zelensky point of view. Nothing ever happens",increase,increase,True,True,187.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T18:57:12.599163Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"""The market title describes the market, but the rules define how it should be resolved."" it better not resolve as yes th",decrease,increase,False,True,14.2997,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T18:03:05.485194Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Think twice when you read NEWS,flip,decrease,False,True,19713.4866,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T04:21:07.459393Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,You need to step outside and take your bullshit to the chin instead of sitting on your computer all day while your girl ,increase,hold,False,True,5.955,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552845,2025-06-24T02:49:19.708545Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,He¡¯s Indian if it makes you feel better,hold,hold,True,True,18.3977,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T21:52:10.272529Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,He clearly says there's no invasion happening,decrease,increase,False,True,15.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T17:15:11.382234Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Just got off phone with Barron he said big man holding off til July 1,hold,increase,False,True,1027.1,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T06:16:05.540085Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Theyre saying 40% of the airpower we had in Desert Storm is headed to or currently next door to Iran,decrease,increase,False,True,742.5157,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +558663,2025-07-03T20:44:19.686641Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,Everything you see/hear is part of your OWN imagination )))) ITS a NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!,hold,flip,False,True,16.7851,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +558663,2025-07-04T19:11:45.029547Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,It¡¯s on American time so around 8:45 hours till midnight eastern standard time,decrease,decrease,True,True,92.16,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554707,2025-06-23T00:59:29.449914Z,Another US military action against Iran by June 30?,Anyone who tells you there 100% sure of something or use emotions like calling someone a yestard or notard or has no bet,flip,hold,False,True,966.0402,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T00:52:23.558852Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,market moved 13k to NO in last 20 mins,flip,increase,False,True,553.0915,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T08:31:33.433866Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Julani said, ""Israel's excuses for entering Syria no longer exist. After the Iranians' departure, there are no more just",decrease,flip,False,True,1896.64,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T13:52:16.280994Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,i commented exactly this here many times lol,flip,hold,False,True,6481.5575,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T06:19:56.426852Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Trump! Trump! Trump! is way cooler than Kamala? Kamala? Kamala? ??????????????,hold,increase,False,True,1.0886,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-25T00:40:38.193828Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Downplaying it so hazbollah dont get cocky, typical. nothing to see",decrease,hold,False,True,643.9568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T05:39:12.812704Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,This Kamala supporter doesn't even know how to buy the right shares HAHAHA,hold,hold,True,True,380.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-26T12:32:28.040368Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"the people over in the ""popular vote"" market are still in denial ahhahahahaah",hold,increase,False,True,1852.4349,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T23:07:31.498331Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"true, its been voted P4 3 times now, it is very much resolvable.",flip,hold,False,True,2946.6025,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T22:40:19.198478Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,who was in paris? i cant remember,decrease,hold,False,True,37.2205,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T14:04:27.422578Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,dw guys we have joe biden on our side,increase,hold,False,True,17.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T16:15:02.670236Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,got a friend whos in the negotiation meeting right now. he says no way,hold,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T00:51:00.190646Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Nothing was released. Everything was redacted. Outcome should be no.,hold,increase,False,True,37.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T02:24:40.224031Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,incredible invasion where u reach agreements with the local govt without fighting,flip,hold,False,True,1927.9263,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T05:19:01.967142Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,This is great! I hope they keep buying no. YES shares are gonna be cheaper,flip,increase,False,True,26926.1765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-10T12:01:21.911324Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,How can you guys bet on yes ???? this is a No brainer IMO,hold,increase,False,True,120.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T07:51:33.697016Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Do not believe those vile evil YES holders, they spend millions of dollars to earn $10. The whole system is rigged, UMA ",flip,increase,False,True,0.51,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-19T16:08:08.656579Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,But have you seen Trump even once blame Russia for the war?,increase,increase,True,True,348.11,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T00:01:02.801624Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,UMA about to show its true colors,increase,hold,False,True,931.39,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:26:22.842566Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,MAGATARDS THINK TRUMP WILL FIX IMMIGRATION AND INFLATION,hold,increase,False,True,56.3472,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T19:29:15.966868Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,got back in with 50 to support the truth but i have no faith in the uma,decrease,decrease,True,True,28.573,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554695,2025-06-23T16:44:41.219199Z,Another US military action against Iran by Monday?,so just destroy infrastructure on the base or send a message?,increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T15:22:02.516176Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I came because it seems the Democrats are willing to give away their money.,decrease,increase,False,True,1200.67,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T00:56:48.915211Z,US military action against Iran before July?,the most free money that has ever been offered,hold,decrease,False,True,2524.53,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T15:52:03.283826Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Asking for a friend, is North Pole considered Golan?",increase,hold,False,True,1107.4553,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T13:07:02.222304Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,i can only see the spiderman meme,flip,hold,False,True,46.2064,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T02:19:27.827853Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The current situation has a high probability of invasion, and the fuse of war can break out at any time",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T18:49:54.877284Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,1974 treaty is broken bc the government he signed it with does not exist anymore...,decrease,flip,False,True,1057.5967,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-29T17:22:45.141594Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas ha,hold,hold,True,True,37.4472,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T21:22:33.162727Z,US military action against Iran before July?,BREAKING: The attack on Fordow was from Seal Team Six,hold,increase,False,True,7631.35,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-13T18:41:35.511538Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Really tells you how unpredictable Trump is when the market is so volatile,increase,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T14:14:13.100441Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"If the market rule would have specified the buffer zone as Israeli instead of the already annexed Golan Heights, this wo",hold,decrease,False,True,456.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T13:54:36.080819Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Two days to launch the product. Money on the floor. https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-release-gpt-5-in-2024/wil,flip,decrease,False,True,2329.7292,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T00:03:03.530047Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Get the pinecone ready brother,hold,increase,False,True,481.9976,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T11:23:22.152738Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"So uhh, can no voters explain this?",hold,decrease,False,True,11.0439,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-21T18:21:48.965483Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,Where is the refund button ? Why is my shares worth 1/2 ??????,hold,decrease,False,True,131.9867,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T16:18:36.195654Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"""We want to clarify that by commences a military offensive intended to establish control over ANY portion of Syria we me",decrease,decrease,True,True,38.7139,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T23:49:49.787167Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,with your size its not even worth to sent a message,increase,hold,False,True,8333.1075,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:20:45.771003Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"WHY IS THIS HAPPENING, PLS SOMEONE TELL ME",hold,decrease,False,True,22.8132,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554012,2025-06-21T14:07:28.531432Z,US military action against Iran by Sunday?,So? Market goes up and you make money,decrease,increase,False,True,82.44,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T11:23:51.655461Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,i am bothered by @ImJustKen who bought No a couple of hours ago !,decrease,decrease,True,True,1199.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T15:27:14.550075Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Idf was in Lebanon too. Did they establish control there?,increase,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T18:02:33.190547Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"If this resolves to YES, many will lose their trust in polymarket.com and will switch to using Kal... Instead",increase,hold,False,True,73.5111,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T13:32:11.403294Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The issue with this is it itself says it¡¯s entry and not occupation,increase,decrease,False,True,2662.3579,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T03:08:52.299869Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Those who bought ""yes"" at 41c on November 24, why haven't they sold their shares if they already practically have the to",increase,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T19:00:10.095873Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,all this talk online but u a goof in real life ??,increase,hold,False,True,12.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T19:16:46.079981Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Trump is not gonna like this, and we all now what he does when he is angry and needs to feel empowered (he could also us",increase,increase,True,True,161.4138,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-27T18:31:08.040694Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Do not sell your NO this cheap, Lets group togethr and sell only at 1c",increase,increase,True,True,1521.8694,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T04:38:47.577666Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"A couple thoughts - first off, I've noticed that anyone saying yes doesn't have any proof, they just say ""Polymarket con",hold,increase,False,True,7714.34,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T10:41:48.200384Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"¡°Old news¡± doesn¡¯t matter here. Both markets resolve on the date of official publication, not when the content first",decrease,hold,False,True,1403.72,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T23:33:32.630544Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Actually no, it goes further than that. The Wadi Raqqad is at the beginning of the Syrian Golan Heights not the end of i",flip,hold,False,True,1382.5413,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T00:01:32.636555Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"ChatGPT (GPT-4 turbo): Based on current information, there is no indication that Hezbollah has made an independent, expl",increase,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T14:48:58.970044Z,US military action against Iran before July?,im new to this how does crude oil relate to this market? Price going up because of fear of reduced supply from iran?,increase,decrease,False,True,219.2228,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T14:37:01.796582Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,pretty sure he still thinks that,increase,hold,False,True,228.8697,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T00:13:26.990255Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"no, only 7% of votes are in and most yes votes are from one person.",decrease,hold,False,True,7.26,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T16:27:03.354125Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,I wonder how they gonna book their profit : they simply can't,increase,decrease,False,True,51.49,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T00:37:20.398708Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,20:80 on this would be generous for Yes,flip,increase,False,True,932.7633,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T17:43:17.722648Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,So it all starts with the FUD being spread by Yes holders... now who is the one manipulating?,flip,hold,False,True,280.675,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T16:03:54.410269Z,US military action against Iran before July?,No need for US to get involved if Israel already has full air superiority,decrease,increase,False,True,994.9,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-15T13:32:50.396549Z,US military action against Iran before July?,on top of that the israelis don't want peace. Their goal is to make it so that Iran cannot get a nuclear bomb. Diplomacy,increase,increase,True,True,366.1426,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T03:51:44.917614Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Someone should just propose yes. New York Times is a very credible source. Please let me know what part of golan heights,decrease,increase,False,True,44.6621,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T17:27:35.984643Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Polymarket CEO Liked my tweet from yesterday. Don't worry, the matter is being handled.",flip,hold,False,True,2329.7292,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T00:04:45.197705Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,people LITERALLY can not FUCKING READ,increase,hold,False,True,1431.55,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T14:55:41.352869Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Half of the DMZ was Syrian, right? And only a part of the DMZ falls within Golan definition, which is a geographical fea",hold,hold,True,True,456.71,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T04:38:33.902929Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,If the Dolan heights are not included then no,hold,hold,True,True,77.7,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-12T19:45:00.726452Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,Simion announced he is not running. Play that,decrease,increase,False,True,16.29,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T12:01:35.205511Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"4,7% YES ... 95,3% TOO EARLY (31% of votes revealed so far)",flip,hold,False,True,906.3924,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T11:12:48.549403Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,they did admit to operating outside of the buffer zone,flip,increase,False,True,27116.0855,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T07:06:23.158894Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,ISRAELI ANIMALS WILL DO ANYTHING TO EXPAND. DO NOT BET AGAINST THEIR GREED!,flip,increase,False,True,51.4484,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T08:31:44.621913Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Calm down - just a little hedge in case PolyMarket makes the wrong decision.,flip,decrease,False,True,276701.3355,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T05:58:46.174571Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I don't see Belgamuz and SandySage, where are they????",hold,hold,True,True,697.5075,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T17:27:01.287174Z,US military action against Iran before July?,One good outcome from today's meeting is that it showed the world how irrelevant the EU is.,flip,hold,False,True,897.3567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T13:49:20.099995Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"It¡¯s not messed up, you¡¯re betting on whether it¡¯ll happen not whether you want it to happen",decrease,hold,False,True,930.0568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T19:51:33.859929Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,I believe the rules make the decision subjective,decrease,decrease,True,True,1121.8227,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T21:10:24.571104Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"""however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.""",decrease,hold,False,True,4001.13,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T20:33:21.404882Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,lol you back hahah guess how is still winning lol,hold,hold,True,True,274.88,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T05:15:36.311733Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,You think there's any chance it goes 50-50 here? Would certainly result in a lot of people selling.,increase,decrease,False,True,684.7614,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T18:05:45.470071Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Flydartball is probably Bibi begging lolllll poor you bro we all told you,flip,hold,False,True,1868.07,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-19T20:50:55.854321Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"Nikes on my feet make my cypher complete, uh",decrease,hold,False,True,628.11,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T04:22:05.378925Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"HEY NO HOLDERS, DENIZZ IS TRIING TO SELL IT VERY QUEITLY NOW THAT THE SCAM IS OVER. SO IF YOU HOLD NO, WELL THE SCAMMED ",decrease,flip,False,True,7336.0688,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-27T12:24:11.780699Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"sorry, thats not enough. could be easily faked with AI. both leaders from hezbollah and israel have to shake hands and h",flip,decrease,False,True,5760.2495,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T03:07:37.661505Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"SyrianRebble sold 5,515 Yes at 62.8c ($3,465)",increase,decrease,False,True,137.8907,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T17:52:55.407616Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Should I invest in all nos then? What do you think?,decrease,hold,False,True,222.4605,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T01:22:37.275351Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Get tf out of here no one is wants you here anymore you degenerate who sold everything,hold,decrease,False,True,31.72,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-20T00:03:45.451896Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,'no' holders dying on the sword,hold,increase,False,True,1696.1628,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-30T04:40:43.290379Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,exactly. Harris is the bet here.,hold,flip,False,True,0.4436,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T17:07:33.740624Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Congratulations holders yes. It was an epic ride),decrease,increase,False,True,86.7668,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T01:22:11.140824Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"""and several adjacent areas, blatantly violate the terms of the 1974"". bro learn how to read not just the part u want to",increase,hold,False,True,72.5718,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T00:17:36.609901Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Considering our buy prices, that question should worry you more",flip,decrease,False,True,26926.1765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T08:08:24.748063Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The Israeli action in Syria has indeed escalated into an invasion. On December 8, 2024, Israeli armored units crossed th",flip,increase,False,True,306.8561,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T22:39:06.368976Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,literally says Mount Hermon north and Ruqqad river in east. No evidence yet that Israel crossed beyond these,flip,hold,False,True,75.971,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T01:20:28.978903Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,The media is controlled by capital and is a tool for the war of public opinion.If we judge based solely on media reports,increase,hold,False,True,248.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T16:30:32.600382Z,US military action against Iran before July?,I can't even buy cigarettes from your PNL mate,decrease,decrease,True,True,2206.0877,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T08:15:40.568339Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Most of minors stakeholders and some whales already voted; 61% of stakeholders with 30% of total tokens already voted wi,increase,decrease,False,True,135.4801,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T05:20:50.119797Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Yes holders are too scared to buy another 1.5 million shares,decrease,increase,False,True,1.0555,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T13:50:39.297008Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Are kamala npc panic now or still not? :)),increase,hold,False,True,474.68,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T09:29:45.926258Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Scamala bots were really thinking they were about to finally climb out of the red.,increase,increase,True,True,76.5799,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-06T15:19:59.446488Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,"just wait it out, it will take a few months, CIolacu will be on the 50%",decrease,hold,False,True,55.322,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T05:17:32.011358Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"""After the Israel Defense Forces on Sunday captured the Syrian side of the strategic Mount Hermon, along with a buffer z",decrease,increase,False,True,3550.9642,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-30T19:34:39.119655Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It can¡¯t be proven without voter id,increase,hold,False,True,991.45,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T19:52:26.625507Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Does Putin intend to return any part of Ukraine? Has Putin's behaviour been a direct reaction to a falling regime in an ,flip,decrease,False,True,13.651,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T12:53:55.830252Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Israeli army forces seized Jamlah in Daraa province and the villages of Mazraat Beit Jinn and Maghar al-Mir in the Damas,increase,increase,True,True,14076.199,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:04:36.595877Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,LETS GOOOO MAGA THANK YOU ALL I MADE SO MUCH MONEY I AM FROM INDIA AND I JUST MADE ENOUGH FOR GROCERY!!!!!!!!!MAGA,decrease,increase,False,True,3.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T18:00:28.091795Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"we dont rely on russian media, but global western media...",flip,hold,False,True,589.414,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-25T12:45:15.836717Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Who you trust more: 1) CNN Netanyahu agrees to a deal 2) Trump's own mouth ''Bibi finish the job'',hold,decrease,False,True,133.23,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T18:40:18.554206Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,syria should take it to the UN then and declare it an invasion,increase,hold,False,True,815.4339,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T05:35:04.185735Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Waiting for Melania to wake up. The market will drop 90 percent.,flip,flip,True,True,2329.7292,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T21:36:09.680936Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,he says forces has been beyond the DMZ,hold,increase,False,True,1378.11,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-21T16:14:06.916769Z,US military action against Iran before August?,There is no such an order to attack or any attitude. Lol dont be fool,decrease,increase,False,True,105.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T21:01:09.837706Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,hermon is not golan heights its a ski resort now expended for my next vacatino,flip,hold,False,True,1156.8745,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T20:58:27.317788Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"once the UN Security Council convenes , they will denounce the invasion in no uncertain terms :::;; they are an official",flip,decrease,False,True,1440.736,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T12:28:43.311077Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"aenews2 copped some ""no"" for july",decrease,hold,False,True,1088.2037,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T00:16:27.891469Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,30c for no is still a bargain tbh,flip,increase,False,True,553.0915,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T02:23:20.867466Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,polymarket is the only authority on their site. no shit.,decrease,hold,False,True,1777.7,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T16:03:49.626746Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"By ""We"" He means American equipment you retards",flip,hold,False,True,199.1956,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T07:27:53.458673Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"just keep betting with your strategy by 98c 99c, this window you will win, but one day maybe lost everything soon :)",decrease,decrease,True,True,142.952,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T00:15:19.304586Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Total tokens that revealed 7.2%1,224,613.15",decrease,hold,False,True,7.26,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T12:53:27.337329Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"what does ""any portion of Syria"" mean though",hold,decrease,False,True,1696.1628,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T11:08:18.276897Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Why is it not already resolved to ¡°Yes¡±? Israelis keep on stealing lands within Syria: https://x.com/dd_geopolitics/st,increase,increase,True,True,13.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T01:11:33.581665Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The Israeli military said it was ¡°not interfering with the internal events in Syria.¡± But it added that its forces wou,decrease,hold,False,True,93.68,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T08:20:44.605083Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,still you are in profit im in heavy loss,hold,decrease,False,True,116.6021,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T00:35:11.842948Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Can I use this site to bet on when my son will finally call me back?,decrease,hold,False,True,2.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-06T18:11:15.147901Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,Ahhhh you back after selling at 19 lol,hold,hold,True,True,75.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T19:43:53.910503Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Show the source where this is indicated on the map. Otherwise,increase,decrease,False,True,64.5197,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T18:59:06.690727Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Also I got like 100 more shares thanks to you cause I bought half at like 24. thanks man cheers,increase,increase,True,True,490.484,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-27T20:03:03.884535Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,never give in never give up we fight until the very end,flip,increase,False,True,0.04,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +558663,2025-07-04T08:28:30.198039Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutua",decrease,decrease,True,True,2311.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T19:46:10.699502Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Xir has a bad track record when it comes to suriya, steiner counterattack didnt save assadcel but xir verhmently said th",flip,decrease,False,True,177.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T05:54:36.392028Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Wow I am the only thing holding this thing up,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T03:18:54.514243Z,US military action against Iran before July?,It was reported in other places a couple of hours ago.,flip,increase,False,True,1818.6848,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T23:50:26.578692Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,wait what happened am i cooked,decrease,decrease,True,True,2672.7135,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T11:30:47.240097Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,The important part here is that the Hezbollah militant party operates independently of the Lebanese state. This means th,increase,increase,True,True,179.9977,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T10:39:11.237443Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,the price manipulation messes with UMA for sure,hold,decrease,False,True,456.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T05:06:13.038153Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"If you think that Golan Heights loophole would hold in UMA, I wish you luck. The officially recognized syrian part of go",flip,decrease,False,True,26926.1765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T23:09:43.862881Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"even Netanyahu said ""Israeli forces will remain in a Syrian buffer zone adjacent to the occupied Golan Heights""",hold,increase,False,True,456.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T19:21:33.286246Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Hahaha nice catch buddy! They already know this market is a NO,increase,increase,True,True,73.5111,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T15:54:49.791257Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Why are yes voters getting more confident when nothing has changed? Is the new strat to just spread FUD?,flip,decrease,False,True,302.0599,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T19:50:23.191723Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Xi is panicking on X, it's Joever.",hold,increase,False,True,439.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T04:54:36.330043Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Financial Times, 10th: ¡°¡­crossed the border from the occupied Golan Heights into a previously demilitarised buffer zon",flip,flip,True,True,23000.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T23:06:53.232277Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Thanks for your expert analysis Jenkins.,hold,hold,True,True,400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T05:22:46.108143Z,US military action against Iran before July?,B-2's in the air out of Whiteman AFB... Refueling now,decrease,increase,False,True,152.1,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-06-01T18:42:20.325685Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,Fools parting with their money lol,increase,increase,True,True,5992.38,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T15:32:28.548909Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,jews are winning hard... many such cases,flip,hold,False,True,188.2951,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T02:29:08.029569Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Its not about the vote, its about when the dispute itself happened",flip,hold,False,True,276.4799,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T15:45:22.790899Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Did you really believe in peace? nothing straight can be made from the crooked timber of man,hold,increase,False,True,7631.35,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T21:53:12.535462Z,US military action against Iran before July?,There's no going back from this point.,decrease,increase,False,True,2150.3357,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-19T18:19:32.666382Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,What worries me is that there¡¯s been no mention of the key differences or disagreements in the negotiations between Rus,hold,decrease,False,True,74.8552,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T16:49:22.159029Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"""Trump is seriously considering attacking Iran."" - Axios, quoting unnamed senior US officials.",hold,increase,False,True,285.8639,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T19:18:33.416853Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Trump for years has had a penchant for setting two-week deadlines, sometimes following through and at other times missin",increase,decrease,False,True,2923.5683,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-19T19:17:17.157939Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"Literally, what has happened? Nothing.",decrease,hold,False,True,628.11,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T17:13:42.170838Z,US military action against Iran before July?,One US official says that no forward orders have been given yet to move the B-2 bombers beyond Guam. - Reuters,flip,increase,False,True,946.2766,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T20:34:41.874017Z,US military action against Iran before July?,trump is even open for a ceasefire now which he was not open to before lol,flip,decrease,False,True,1168.5641,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T18:06:08.702951Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"¡°We¡¯re not there yet but I believe we are in the final stages,¡± Blinken told reporters after a meeting near Rome with",decrease,decrease,True,True,0.18,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T18:23:50.936294Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Invade Damascus. You have my tax dollars,flip,increase,False,True,1260.718,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T15:29:43.175814Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Nah she ll be on the street and u ll be down bad sorry for ur loss lol,increase,flip,False,True,3198.88,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T09:20:55.444949Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"More and more news coming out matter of time bro, make sure if you see something to post it in the comments! ''Yes'' wil",increase,increase,True,True,19627.8219,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T22:22:24.950749Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,dude what in the fuck is happening lmaoooo who disputed with YES,hold,hold,True,True,1000.38,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T19:15:18.544779Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The Golan Heights are excluded as per the terms of this market. Nothing has changed so there is still no invasion as des,increase,increase,True,True,49.82,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-26T17:00:21.937661Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"according to your bets, you are rich idiot, bro ))",hold,decrease,False,True,995.72,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T21:17:35.197557Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,this gives free reign to Israel to pperste in Syrian land,flip,increase,False,True,27116.0855,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T12:43:13.852484Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,You have bought the wrong shares and you know it. That's why you're so stressed out and are spamming here and on X. Sell,increase,decrease,False,True,45.2181,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T07:14:20.440611Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Crossed doesn¡¯t equal invaded, they need to take control of areas beyond the dmz and that hasn¡¯t happened yet, thats w",flip,increase,False,True,26926.1765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T18:08:20.950588Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,last opportunity for yes buyers to exit,flip,decrease,False,True,589.414,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T13:12:40.760807Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Think objectively about the diplomatic wording. Saying you'll think for two weeks means you¡¯ll only act near the end of,hold,decrease,False,True,12223.235,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T12:53:02.481545Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Correct. Which is why he always uses the ""2 weeks"" thing literally all the time and nothing ever happens. It's a consist",decrease,increase,False,True,61560.8528,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T21:48:53.222815Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"all i see in the NYT is ""0xE6371d7b69B3 is a sperg with kindergarten level reading comprehension""",decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-30T10:01:38.419335Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"coomla yapped ""now i want wach one of u to s hout ur name "" LMAO they went silent.",hold,hold,True,True,9141.63,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T16:27:24.551626Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Because it gets expensive to cope that long?,flip,decrease,False,True,48.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T15:40:53.248187Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Guys, all around Trump, including his daughter is Jewish... PLAIN AND SIMPLE",increase,hold,False,True,573.5449,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +558663,2025-07-03T17:19:30.052038Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"Before you click on the YES button, check this out https://www.youtube.com/shorts/b9eEqK0PWuM",decrease,flip,False,True,15.2758,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T18:07:22.945624Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Conclusion for the Final Review To respect their commitment to being a ""source of truth,"" Polymarket should resolve NO. ",hold,increase,False,True,74.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T18:24:30.083972Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,NO scammers really putting in overtime on this one,increase,flip,False,True,304.8324,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T20:32:56.427722Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Trumps wants to attack? Are you kidding me? He literally said as one of his biggest campaigns ""no more wars"" he blames B",flip,increase,False,True,1168.5641,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T01:42:42.633674Z,US military action against Iran before July?,guys this moment is so kino I love you all,hold,hold,True,True,1027.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T22:21:13.794015Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Bro knows 100 likes is not possible T_T,increase,hold,False,True,61.0706,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T00:26:01.211275Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,market will go to +85 in the morning,decrease,hold,False,True,1494.4057,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T18:00:15.635852Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Israeli Golan Height is west of the Purple Line. Even Israel consider the Golan Heights east of the Purple Line Syrian t,flip,hold,False,True,1260.718,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T20:59:09.622211Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"these odds are unbelievably good for buying No, unbelievably good",hold,increase,False,True,1027.1,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-06-01T02:37:36.890389Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,glhf to all profiteers in the chat,hold,hold,True,True,1231.9855,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T17:22:07.830102Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,do you know if its ever settled early?,hold,decrease,False,True,803.84,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T17:50:10.556572Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,well its hopefully going to switch and some whales are going to make 2000x I hoep,hold,flip,False,True,300.6953,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-14T20:27:16.875817Z,US military action against Iran before July?,As an Israeli it is just a matter of hours/days for US to Join us at taking off some of Irans Nuke's - Iran always call ,hold,increase,False,True,460.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T16:16:22.275192Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,It would be idiotic to think that the creators of this market meant this to refer to anything other than the geographic ,decrease,hold,False,True,77.6828,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T23:56:49.007582Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"On the ground, IOF advanced several kilometers into Syrian territory, entering five towns, including Quneitra, Al-Hamidi",flip,increase,False,True,33.9415,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:54:50.713427Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"If aenews2 is selling, then it¡¯s not all over for Alexparker yet",flip,hold,False,True,78.9476,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T11:03:59.425216Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Fox News reported that Trump is considering the use of a tactical nuclear weapon to strike Iran¡¯s Fordow nuclear facili,increase,increase,True,True,2923.5683,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T18:16:32.925961Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,North Korea can invade South Korea and do whatever because UMA would just call it Korea and no invasion,flip,hold,False,True,1260.718,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T05:36:42.261631Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Guys this is not an easy market. Even if some territory is being taken by some measures, israel will deny invasion and s",flip,increase,False,True,37.9421,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T02:33:50.672895Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Julani said, ""Israel's excuses for entering Syria no longer exist. After the Iranians' departure, there are no more just",hold,flip,False,True,1896.64,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T18:00:06.969631Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Israeli army occupies Syrian side of Mount Hermon facing no resistance Israel is conquering new territory to expand its ,decrease,increase,False,True,52.5019,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T22:37:50.997069Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Well, this is definitely not ""all unclassified Epstein-related documents"" .. So No",hold,increase,False,True,32.01,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-26T08:10:51.401179Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,My source at the Mossad¡¯s telling me it¡¯s gonna happen,hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T12:05:31.431292Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Trump will win 100%, easy money for us",decrease,increase,False,True,2077.35,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T13:07:30.534426Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,hold on to your positions. the no whales got trupped in a 90% positions and need to get out. UMA will have to vote yes e,hold,increase,False,True,1550.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T04:10:17.539463Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I just thought his profile was funny,flip,hold,False,True,280.675,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T15:31:08.408978Z,US military action against Iran before July?,libtards are right about trump being a demagogue,hold,decrease,False,True,822.8587,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T18:53:31.370845Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,i know the yes buyers who bought at 90c with their house mortgage are sweating now,decrease,hold,False,True,31.1545,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T19:56:53.481642Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"NOW: The US will join Israel's campaign against Iran, according to Israeli assessments tonight - Channel 12's Nitzan Sha",flip,increase,False,True,4127.3703,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-31T15:57:54.797973Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,BBC: Hamas has agreed to release 10 living hostages and 18 bodies in its response to the US's Gaza ceasefire proposals. ,flip,increase,False,True,893.12,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T20:18:53.277874Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,final vote's tomorrow and no discussion in discord tf you on about,decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T03:42:11.405268Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I thought this was documented days ago? Strange!,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:11:37.397349Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Bought the dip yesterday, paying off big time",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T21:49:02.270926Z,US military action against Iran before July?,my ex would tell me to hit her harder,increase,hold,False,True,195.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T00:16:32.765907Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"it is, its not my fault its not going up",increase,decrease,False,True,931.39,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T23:57:36.250025Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"How 'hair-splitting' is your argument, in your opinion?",increase,hold,False,True,1373.1575,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T17:12:11.344935Z,US military action against Iran before July?,When is he scheduled to have the talks?,increase,decrease,False,True,569.5468,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T13:20:10.765888Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,No I thought you may answer me MAMA SHENG DE. Now I'm not sure if you are Chinese,hold,hold,True,True,46.8682,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T11:52:22.625672Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Too guys the two disputes were YES,hold,hold,True,True,97.36,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T07:32:28.098154Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"UMA whales buying No with new wallets, interesting. 500x opportunity if this resolves to No",increase,increase,True,True,1204.99,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-06-01T00:08:57.192524Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,I love how in this and the Ukraine market any time anything happens he pops in to make a comment that ends up being horr,decrease,decrease,True,True,1575.664,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-04-10T09:04:28.502925Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"It would ""absolutely"" mean military action, if Iran doesn't agree to the nuclear deal https://youtu.be/Fu1_5FiypWU?si=Ya",hold,hold,True,True,419.9991,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-01T22:44:33.354158Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Printing money with the highest deficit in history, easy, lazy, and foolish. It will be hilarious when the BRICS dump th",hold,increase,False,True,355.8515,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-29T18:42:16.546843Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,Saudi media reported that the US envoy has been informed that Israel and Hamas have agreed to the new Witkoff framework,hold,flip,False,True,0.2826,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T07:46:41.974249Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,wikipedia also said that israel invaded syria so idk,flip,hold,False,True,8199.8894,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-06T15:09:26.138423Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,how does this platform work? if Bolojan will be the PNL candidate will Nicolae Ciuca profile switch to Bolojan?,increase,decrease,False,True,8.392,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T16:44:59.674624Z,US military action against Iran before July?,can i get 5 big booms for fordow,increase,increase,True,True,256.8608,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T15:33:00.778865Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"I will never trust any words that come out of this administration, I don't believe the files will come out until I see t",decrease,increase,False,True,79.62,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T23:16:35.624021Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,FELLOW NO SISTERS! DO NOT GIVE UP! BUY MORE NO AND KEEP DISPUTING AND UMA WILL HAVE TO LISTEN TO US!,flip,flip,True,True,1162.93,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560539,2025-07-08T13:53:30.101665Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,The war not over even if the is ceasefire that is what u r not understand! The deal is for get the hostages back and bre,increase,decrease,False,True,35.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T18:19:02.356734Z,US military action against Iran before July?,If it goes to 30 I am selling my fucking house,increase,increase,True,True,580.3468,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3ea7ceb9d00d1153e20ed70d6ed001603ab37b1f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,241 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +507792,2024-11-30T10:16:05.020805Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Us No holders gamble on the technicallity that Hezbollah themselves never agreed to the ceasefire... which is a crucial ,decrease,increase,False,True,10.69,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-18T22:58:32.253133Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,I¡¯m putting my money where my mouth is,increase,increase,True,True,1100.92,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T20:50:12.682336Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Up because the UK was briefed on our totally real totally happening strike. lol read this https://www.thetimes.com/uk/de,increase,decrease,False,True,620.1157,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T13:05:32.583959Z,US military action against Iran before July?,USA will only show teeth but won't bite Iran,flip,increase,False,True,58.36,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-15T09:00:03.365523Z,US military action against Iran before July?,If this news report is true then for sure we get YES lol. https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1934131355031335256?t=pzBYtI,increase,increase,True,True,163.9966,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T16:34:38.470719Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.,flip,hold,False,True,481.6418,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554012,2025-06-21T17:28:43.114822Z,US military action against Iran by Sunday?,This. Its amazing what positioning of equipment can do to dete,increase,hold,False,True,12.45,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T13:33:40.275624Z,US military action against Iran before July?,NoTards literally don¡¯t know what they¡¯re looking at. The planes are taken off the tarmac to PROTECT THEM FROM IRANIAN,hold,increase,False,True,1230.42,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T16:40:46.040693Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"No buyers buying at 0,1 cents, meanwhile i invested 3000 dollar while it was 35 cent for no smh",hold,decrease,False,True,1644.5019,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T17:41:23.472967Z,US military action against Iran before July?,jup: Trump will not sign joint G7 statement calling for de-escalation between Israel and Iran,decrease,increase,False,True,163.7556,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T00:08:15.250138Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I can only use 2 lines on this site,increase,UNKNOWN,False,True,991.45,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T22:14:07.525636Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"The hatred you guys have for the nothing ever happens chud, he has feelings, he might get kids someday!",decrease,hold,False,True,66.7,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T16:03:49.626746Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"By ""We"" He means American equipment you retards",flip,hold,False,True,199.1956,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T08:36:01.563289Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Even if Israel claims the 1974 treaty is void, the market focuses on actions, not just intent or justification. Crossing",flip,increase,False,True,27116.0855,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T01:43:31.208001Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"They will Dump again(70k) ,all No buyers be cautious.",hold,decrease,False,True,0.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T17:59:45.624519Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Israel never established control on any portion beyond the DMZ,flip,hold,False,True,26926.1765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T15:36:43.921773Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,can someone explain how yes has 'already won?' have i missed something,decrease,decrease,True,True,8.9495,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T03:23:41.629146Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,trump supportter will lose all their money on nov 5!!,hold,flip,False,True,900.3152,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T22:21:39.103994Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"i am surprised you are so invested in such a longterm bet wheras isreal would surely go deeper in the soon future, howev",decrease,increase,False,True,599.6567,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T11:32:19.681963Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,we need a source that Umm Batnah is in the Golan Heights,flip,hold,False,True,27116.0855,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T22:10:53.160345Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,we cant compete with this forsight guy he close to 8mil,hold,decrease,False,True,493.37,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T01:10:01.073093Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The answer to the question ¡°How does this market work?¡± Market's solution criteria: Between September 12, 2024 and D",decrease,flip,False,True,450.5983,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T21:35:54.863935Z,US military action against Iran before July?,JOSINT says planes in the air.,flip,increase,False,True,101.6648,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T15:18:26.853503Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"read the rules """"Yes"" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Syria""",decrease,UNKNOWN,False,True,52.5019,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T03:55:55.942325Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"dude, it's done deal. I just don't sell it because what's the point, anyway the vote is against us",hold,decrease,False,True,87.2134,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-15T19:41:44.465367Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,Trump Putin meating very soon they said,flip,increase,False,True,61.8131,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T19:32:06.162802Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Bros. This is free money. Israel has invaded Syria. Even the Polymarket AI knows.,decrease,increase,False,True,1.11,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T17:39:58.100414Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,not rich but has enough money to enjoy in polymarket,hold,hold,True,True,87.2134,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T08:45:36.174108Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kamala Harris is a child molester,decrease,hold,False,True,14.41,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-07T19:57:27.121932Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Wake up americans, the world is laughing at you for even doubting this",hold,increase,False,True,163.75,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-19T05:21:41.806317Z,US military action against Iran before August?,cant wait for the 10% daily decay on yes,hold,increase,False,True,6.9,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T17:41:06.350095Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,never gambling on the middle east again,flip,decrease,False,True,19.85,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T00:59:22.239377Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,When will be the results announced?,increase,hold,False,True,28.6667,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T19:28:13.608697Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Why isn't Yes 50 points ahead, you might ask?",flip,decrease,False,True,3.06,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T22:29:47.062513Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"a photo of an accusation, nothing illegal.",hold,hold,True,True,69.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T03:04:42.397593Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"so the Golan argument is wrong, because we have proof they extended beyond even the buffer zone, which cant include the ",increase,decrease,False,True,931.39,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T00:32:16.466926Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Gallo 8.3K No 1m ago I didn't bother after UMA rejected it as evidence last two times.,increase,decrease,False,True,23200.613,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T12:36:47.081151Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"when Polymarket had add ""the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory"", they destroyed this market",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.4469,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T22:53:03.377572Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"its litteraly above ""final review"" and stuff it says it will resolve to yes",hold,flip,False,True,1.49,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-20T14:40:50.275685Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,I think you know me better than my GF :),decrease,hold,False,True,104.85,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T22:47:08.395754Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Back to 3 0.03 for no! It even went to 0.04 when I was on the shitter lmao! Ngl this is the most exciting way I¡¯ve spen,increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T22:20:56.303881Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,money has people doing all sorts of things,increase,decrease,False,True,931.39,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T21:48:38.023703Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"I think you meant ""objective"" but you're right, whether something is an invasion is subjective.",flip,hold,False,True,8.0172,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T02:45:53.532126Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"It's crazy that Melania keep buying about 40K NO shares in the past 12 hours, but the Yes price still remain not crash, ",hold,decrease,False,True,5338.6249,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T20:55:04.577148Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"In the past week, significant developments have emerged regarding the release of Jeffrey Epstein files by the Trump admi",decrease,decrease,True,True,915.4396,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T16:01:03.939604Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The syrian side of Mount Hebron is not Golan heights. And Israel has already took control of the syrian army's military ,decrease,increase,False,True,52.5019,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T11:14:38.626068Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"IDF relaxed their shelter in place orders a little, Russian foreign ministry just warned the US against pursuing direct ",increase,decrease,False,True,544.122,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T17:05:41.989542Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"So is Shayne your savior or just another ""scammer""?",flip,hold,False,True,280.675,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-27T20:50:22.602453Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,our head of the defance minstary said they should halt schools for tomorrow cus thier might be massive attacks tomorrow ,decrease,increase,False,True,4.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-09T14:48:00.696322Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,"No sadly, he will be added to others, see the rules",hold,flip,False,True,44.5686,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T03:35:01.764784Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"fellow Yes bros, who's gonna propose?? It will go through this time :)",increase,flip,False,True,355.5447,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T19:31:21.514466Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Scam, we need to prosecute UMA and polymarket for market manipulation.",hold,hold,True,True,127.3258,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-04-28T12:28:42.723068Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"""planet earth"" and ""earth"" are also not the same",hold,hold,True,True,213.9986,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T10:21:46.627845Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Kanye told Trump about the j's Trump knows the truth and wont help em,hold,hold,True,True,125.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T10:50:55.204391Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Guys, here is another thinking: when the proposal happened and stupidly approved, it drove yes share up and lots of ppl,",hold,decrease,False,True,5.24,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-15T13:29:14.909601Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"What's true: Fordow is indeed one of Iran's most hardened nuclear facilities, built deep underground (reportedly 80-90 ",increase,decrease,False,True,163.9966,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T02:22:44.010297Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"The easiest way to tell a man doesn't get consistent p*ssy is if they are a ""white guy for harris."" Haha, the most unf*c",hold,increase,False,True,176.41,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T20:55:03.025153Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,ngl man they look to be in a good spot. it's us yes holders holding onto copium after 3pm didn't happen,increase,decrease,False,True,7021.9908,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554695,2025-06-23T17:45:32.692015Z,Another US military action against Iran by Monday?,You don¡¯t understand these dynamics,hold,decrease,False,True,3.4227,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T14:55:30.368913Z,US military action against Iran before July?,That¡¯s a pretty dumb view but ok,decrease,hold,False,True,155.2229,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:06:02.852083Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,This French dude must be swimming in money right now,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T14:07:23.206658Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Israel invaded a collapsing Assad Syria to protect its borders from the aftermath. This means our market resolves to yes,increase,increase,True,True,456.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T16:25:45.511737Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"I am afraid for Yes holders, this fraud is not gonna last long",increase,decrease,False,True,51.49,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T08:24:23.636635Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,it's crazy cause y'all keep yapping but get no results,increase,decrease,False,True,355.5447,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T21:32:16.519314Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Y'all are dumb, they keep edging youy yestards, if. they were to do it it would already be done, they keep edging to use",increase,increase,True,True,219.0273,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-10T18:54:49.562618Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Looks like Israel is going deeper, not pulling out: https://x.com/Osint613/status/1855682798788485179",increase,increase,True,True,290.9935,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T15:58:28.156345Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,light work baby im not in a panic mode. :),increase,increase,True,True,20794.0361,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T16:56:31.806925Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"who cares, uma will vote as usual, just yes without any explanation",increase,hold,False,True,3.13,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519075,2025-05-17T15:15:33.080741Z,Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election?,"maestre, in ce bula esti? cum nu reusesti sa vezi mobilizarea din societate?",hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-02T01:42:34.801027Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,TRUMP: INDIA WILL STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA,decrease,decrease,True,True,160.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T21:00:44.618678Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,Yeah im Hoping for another one tho,decrease,flip,False,True,908.1519,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T17:11:43.090456Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,URGENT: Lebanese media reports a series of IDF airstrikes in southern Lebanon. (I hope they are not scammers because the,increase,decrease,False,True,50.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T16:24:33.362466Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"No but if the existence of t he promise is in question, its pretty good evidence that it never existed in the first plac",flip,increase,False,True,118.8851,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T21:59:18.446861Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Vance and Trump are playing good cop bad cop. Nothing is going to happen,decrease,increase,False,True,495.006,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T04:42:47.254912Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I dont recall giving Russia hundreds of billions of dollars under Trump? Not into 20% inflation, horrible real wage grow",increase,flip,False,True,1323.84,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T03:09:58.005201Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Israel invaded Assad Syria when they ended the border agreement by seizing mt hermon and the dmz. just because it was to,increase,increase,True,True,931.39,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T06:54:22.193278Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Large amount, mass scale, full blast invasion, similar to Lebanon with 300+ tanks and 3k army men. Is that too much to a",flip,decrease,False,True,94301.8932,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T23:18:20.123778Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,SO TRUE! PLEASE BUY MORE NO AND CASH OUT ON THIS RARE OPPURUNITY!,flip,flip,True,True,1162.93,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527882,2025-03-17T09:27:09.852714Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?,"@TychoBrahe, wants to pull out $0.5 mill from Friday market. Good luck, unfortunately, don't have a capital to deploy mo",decrease,decrease,True,True,17016.1024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T08:51:19.952589Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,The reason hezbollah violate the agreement is cause it never agreed to one,decrease,increase,False,True,428.0443,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T12:20:43.107978Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Definition of ""Should"": ""used to indicate what is likely or expected."" This does not imply that the outcome will be ""yes",increase,hold,False,True,18.95,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T09:07:40.207729Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,have you heard of the biggest garbage patch on earth. i think its called india?,increase,hold,False,True,76.5799,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T17:01:26.412386Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Seems like there might be some free money on the table at UMA. Guess more people should buy UMA tokens and vote.,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T01:36:29.545558Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"""we'll use the power of friendship"" ahhhh comment section????",flip,hold,False,True,148.7815,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T22:56:41.821262Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,fake polymarket confirmation FUD / fake Golan height FUD / Twitter Pressurization to pump and dump on new buyers / using,flip,increase,False,True,2946.6025,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T11:17:28.888649Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,you should have seen hezbollah market,flip,increase,False,True,49.9511,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T22:36:33.927607Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"hopeless gambler waiting for the christmas spirit from the post-modern angels, lol",hold,decrease,False,True,62.64,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T17:28:43.114822Z,US military action against Iran before July?,This. Its amazing what positioning of equipment can do to dete,flip,hold,False,True,22.4627,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T22:29:04.957108Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Let's do a quick poll. If you think YES will win, tip me $1. If you think NO will win, tip me $0.99.",decrease,hold,False,True,630.5454,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T19:19:21.109944Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Iran will be struck within 2 weeks,hold,increase,False,True,320.1452,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T10:43:43.719047Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"let them, only bs talk- imagine they actually bet yes. Free money with No tbh",decrease,increase,False,True,248.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T02:36:55.589929Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Y'all bitching because you're losing money. I ain't get no responses,hold,hold,True,True,20.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T07:07:52.874218Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"skystar001 sold 13,000 Yes at 34.7c",flip,increase,False,True,1927.9263,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T19:32:48.646294Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"""defense minister plans to control"" Oh so they dont control it?",flip,decrease,False,True,63.4677,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T17:50:40.500771Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,They don't arrive until 6pm EST tomorrow at the EARLIEST,decrease,hold,False,True,116.48,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T07:05:07.360632Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) did not face resistance when it seized Syrian outposts outside of the disengagement zone,increase,increase,True,True,135.4801,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T17:53:39.268043Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Nice video of IDF soldiers, boots on the ground in Quneitra.",flip,increase,False,True,8.474,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T21:54:12.156328Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Can I buy a porkchop with polygon tokens?,decrease,hold,False,True,202.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T14:15:43.832275Z,US military action against Iran before July?,OBVIOUSLY THERE WILL BE NOTHING. BUY NO TO MAKE MONEY GUYS,decrease,increase,False,True,19.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T09:30:43.550634Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Aenews profits on swing all gone amazing! Truth will win,flip,increase,False,True,28855.1091,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T17:13:13.608531Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"just read this guys UMA discution "" palimpsestuous 2024-12-11, 7:03 AM P2 Yes PHOTOGRAPHIC EVIDENCE IDF SEIZED TERRIT",increase,flip,False,True,38.4189,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-22T01:50:21.900546Z,US military action against Iran before July?,just redeploying capital. No big deal. More upside always around the corner,hold,decrease,False,True,1149.9952,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T21:24:21.348627Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Iran knows they are fucked if they dont take this chance now.,decrease,flip,False,True,3929.3833,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T07:46:41.974249Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,wikipedia also said that israel invaded syria so idk,decrease,hold,False,True,8199.8894,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-27T07:11:58.136961Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"yeah, its not a vote counting.",hold,decrease,False,True,1257.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:29:22.280432Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Guys who told you who were on those planes?,decrease,decrease,True,True,4074.8444,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T00:09:28.256715Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,We are 4 days after ending cmon,hold,hold,True,True,74.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-25T15:25:48.854661Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Al-Arabiya: The U.S. has informed Lebanese officials that a declaration of the war's end will be made in the coming hour,flip,increase,False,True,10349.0382,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T19:04:18.078424Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,BREAKING NEWS FROM AL MAYADEEN: ISRAEL WILL FALL AT THE HANDS OF NASRALLAH. GREAT LEADER DID NOT DIE IN BOMBING. MOHAMME,flip,flip,True,True,302.0599,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T18:00:28.091795Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"we dont rely on russian media, but global western media...",increase,hold,False,True,589.414,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T12:19:17.478291Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,''fake news'' Calm down with your L XD (not cringe at all),increase,decrease,False,True,13279.914,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T16:13:15.236268Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,"Jun23 might make it but wouldn¡¯t touch it, b2 just won¡¯t make it in time. There is no way they are going directly to I",increase,increase,True,True,89.4034,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T22:36:44.708635Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Imagine doing that for 17% profit.,flip,decrease,False,True,26926.1765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554707,2025-06-22T15:16:13.507768Z,Another US military action against Iran by June 30?,They'll call them announcing the strikes and they'll hit nothing on purpose... They've done it before this way,decrease,increase,False,True,7.3333,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T17:18:56.965736Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Can anyone explain to me why sandra doesn't just buy all at once? And gradually buys higher price when she/he pumps the ,decrease,hold,False,True,14.0267,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T04:18:03.986069Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,I fed this market into every AI available to judge if it is a YES or NO and it gave YES every single time. Not a single ,increase,flip,False,True,412.89,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T18:48:14.858963Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"This is what he likes, he loves the whole world to be watching - but we need to separate the comments that Trump makes i",increase,decrease,False,True,2923.5683,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T01:30:03.570774Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Also clear from the same three people in this comment section spitting the same rhetoric,decrease,hold,False,True,6518.1154,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T03:46:34.747508Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,yeah no im staying out of those type of markets until UMA is replaced with better resolution system. Can't always count ,decrease,decrease,True,True,7849.9459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-23T01:29:23.072312Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,I bet a hedge to cover 30 June to pay out what I bet here. 31 May is going to be a super close call.,increase,decrease,False,True,7835.77,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-20T12:04:42.809226Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Polymarket intervened to stop an obvious scam from UMA whales and no-holders are mad.,flip,decrease,False,True,489.2917,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T13:23:15.968177Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Such self-hating is a jewish tradition with deep roots,decrease,hold,False,True,112.6458,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T08:17:54.815663Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"You are right. In their view, Russia's behavior can also be P4",decrease,hold,False,True,2549.7514,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T19:28:42.493595Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,According to ChatGPT the today's release does not qualify according to the rules you mentioned.,increase,decrease,False,True,70.06,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T20:59:44.703225Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"if you enter a buffer zone and call it yours, this is ""Taking control"", it's not buffer anymore",flip,increase,False,True,1156.8745,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T16:56:37.538785Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"""The OO lets users assert statements as true, backed by economic incentives."" Could these economic incentives be the pro",hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T17:39:10.949241Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Car and that chinese fucker are so silent now :),increase,hold,False,True,441.4363,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T17:23:06.329927Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel has definitely expanding the borders outside of golan heights, see the results here: https://syria.liveuamap.com/",flip,increase,False,True,294.7271,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T22:29:43.351427Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"As you should. Switch sides before it's too late. The vote will obviously end in P4 and soon enough, it's 50/50...",flip,flip,True,True,26926.1765,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T17:41:11.869799Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,What happens if final review is p4 (too early) ? since its final how could it conclude to yes or no given that the quest,flip,decrease,False,True,190.1175,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:46:19.402483Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,if your avg price is not around 50-60 on donald trump you are fkg disgrace and should leave America you fkg retard.,decrease,increase,False,True,3728.25,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T00:58:15.946749Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The only reason polymarket is not a shitty shady teenager scam is trust. Lets see what happens,decrease,decrease,True,True,7972.2085,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T20:22:25.014822Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I think i see people memeing on muslims about it,flip,hold,False,True,302.0599,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-20T14:34:45.528556Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"good catch, and you're prob right, good job keeping it respectful bro",hold,hold,True,True,14.125,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T04:48:32.692683Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,this is the same source ISW mentioned in there report today btw,flip,hold,False,True,1927.9263,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T20:38:21.037445Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Fordow Nuclear Power plant in #Iran is currently being attacked by unknown ground forces.,decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:23:10.795332Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Waiting my deposit to buy more dump yes pls,decrease,increase,False,True,515.57,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-14T10:25:20.102933Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,"Economically its not profitable, opportunity cost is higher :)",decrease,decrease,True,True,109.458,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T11:33:42.010771Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Big data and math says, there is no way rather then P4 to be an outcome of the UMA market, except a risk of forgery",increase,increase,True,True,299.87,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T09:41:11.439468Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"If we want to hold on to the end and win, we have to influence UMA Discord, to speak effectively and rationally, speak, ",hold,increase,False,True,5338.6249,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-17T19:26:34.497219Z,US military action against Iran before August?,The son of a Qatari oil magnent with inside connections to the U.S? Who knows on polymarket,decrease,hold,False,True,34.9997,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T00:45:09.807495Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,if uma actually follows the rules it will be a no but if they are paid off by the DOJ and Kash patels FBI they will scam,increase,decrease,False,True,29.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T16:36:42.721675Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Syrian Hermon is inside the DMZ which isn¡¯t internationally recognized as Syrian land,flip,hold,False,True,26926.1765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:48:38.696421Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Dispute based on what? Have fun finding non-existent evidence.,decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.5096,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-12T18:03:33.124521Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,honestly fuck this market and the romanian elections,hold,decrease,False,True,4.57,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T01:15:12.145092Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,They shut down the discord comments lmaoooo,hold,hold,True,True,37.6667,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T17:33:23.821014Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,israel try not to kill someone for 1 week challenge,flip,decrease,False,True,1162.93,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T01:04:26.508738Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Lmao I never know if these pumps are real news or just tardios,increase,decrease,False,True,1622.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T23:09:34.545933Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"HIFI31, HIFI32, HIFI33, and HIFI34 airborne",hold,increase,False,True,146.3,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T14:37:27.046712Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"incursion is not equal to invasion, UMA already voted on this . israel will just reject like everyother ""Israel denies i",decrease,increase,False,True,73.6947,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T17:54:05.995938Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"yeah 0 sense it will be ''No'', just some whales tryna manuliplate the market right now.",increase,increase,True,True,21252.7382,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T20:07:52.519918Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Trump reiterates two weeks is the ¡°maximum¡± before a decision on Iran is made.,decrease,increase,False,True,200.26,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T12:11:26.865013Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL TO REUTERS: ZERO ENRICHMENT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE REJECTED , 'ESPECIALLY NOW, UNDER ISRAEL¡¯S STRI",increase,increase,True,True,2923.5683,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T08:35:05.566319Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"It's time for you to be brave to leave SCAM SQUAD and keep you money before you loose it all, truth is winning you have ",hold,decrease,False,True,6621.3341,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T03:20:41.297633Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I feel like your a psy op to make yes side seem dumber,flip,hold,False,True,280.675,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T00:50:29.673682Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,IDF plans to launch broader Syrian campaign. Tick tock,flip,increase,False,True,989.063,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-20T03:51:33.100629Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Bro what if I go back I literally told everyone to have respect to other people I can show you like 5 cases,hold,hold,True,True,627.41,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T08:20:19.557517Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,And you¡¯re still keeping your position?,flip,decrease,False,True,26926.1765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T11:47:42.862915Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"No need tbh, to much evidence coming out.",hold,flip,False,True,27541.8768,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T14:59:48.601239Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"NO on bet not do please money, lose to afford not can you If all. at rules the satisfy not does evidence current The wor",decrease,decrease,True,True,44.0853,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T17:06:11.643794Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,it didnt the first 3 times but im sure the 4th is the charm...,flip,decrease,False,True,1339.9263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T01:01:49.304103Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Yep more and more evidence coming out matter of time bro!,increase,increase,True,True,18190.3608,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T17:28:50.968525Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,are we looking at the same map,flip,decrease,False,True,2132.4375,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T17:01:13.062356Z,US military action against Iran before July?,You really think if they had an order it would be public?,flip,hold,False,True,28.0645,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T22:29:55.963452Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Bro, look at the history of the dispute for 1 minute",decrease,decrease,True,True,16656.36,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-16T15:22:51.499724Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The border bill had strings attached. Details that forced him to reject the bill. It was NOT an actual border bill. Seve,hold,hold,True,True,39.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:32:33.806511Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,They're going to release more in the coming weeks - but todays release was nothing that meets the rules of this market. ,decrease,increase,False,True,2.11,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T16:15:00.478936Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Hezbollah will also need to make a statement after the annoucement. If it gets accepted without it, it is rigged",increase,decrease,False,True,2.98,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T18:23:26.948203Z,US military action against Iran before July?,US military action against Iran by Friday is out :),flip,decrease,False,True,892.82,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-27T00:41:53.842601Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,People are that stubborn they¡¯d prefer $0 then to just sell the no shares now,hold,decrease,False,True,1247.0209,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T22:59:07.405669Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,i'm here for knowledge not money,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T14:19:53.132553Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"I YOU READIN THIS SHAYNE COPLAN, YOU A BITCH!!!!!!!!",hold,hold,True,True,5.576,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T19:38:10.361094Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"What are all these bot accounts doing, just buying and then selling directly?",decrease,hold,False,True,8.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T19:00:47.634067Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"What do you expect to find, UNDOF is within the Golan Heights, it doesn't define their border as the heights go past it",flip,hold,False,True,63.4677,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-15T16:04:00.410859Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Axios - US Deploys B-2 Bombers in Strike on Iran Nuclear Sites,increase,increase,True,True,180.2639,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519075,2025-03-06T10:52:46.740861Z,Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election?,"People will vote out of spite. I understand that most people think that CG voters are stupid, a certain amount are for s",hold,increase,False,True,193.2396,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T01:50:18.568793Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Earlier Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said that Israeli forces will remain in a Syrian bu",increase,increase,True,True,456.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T22:51:17.973184Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The mention of Golan in the market rule, is probably to exclude the occupation of Golan by Israel as a reason to resolve",hold,hold,True,True,456.71,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-15T06:46:46.527732Z,US military action against Iran before July?,just need to wait until credible reporting soon,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-01T00:51:04.266221Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,uma voters dont make anything off this market last time i checked,flip,hold,False,True,19.85,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T07:46:41.833441Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Times of Israel: The Syrian security source says Israeli troops reached Qatana, which is 10 kilometers (6 miles) into Sy",flip,decrease,False,True,47.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T15:29:00.138149Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Not really at all, considering how lebanon market resolved this is the most obvious ""No"" in the world. Both markets have",increase,increase,True,True,74729.1138,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T15:26:18.586307Z,US military action against Iran before July?,*Checks conditions for market resolving* does not say anything about war starting.,flip,decrease,False,True,275.6575,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T23:26:35.476885Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Iran is getting pounded so hard right now, it can't be only Isreal doing it",flip,increase,False,True,88.2705,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T02:44:34.767052Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,It also proves that your dick is very small.,decrease,hold,False,True,46.254,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T21:25:42.358812Z,US military action against Iran before July?,BREAKING Khamenei would surrender nuclear programme for Cars wife,increase,decrease,False,True,113.0144,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-06-10T15:17:42.711564Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,This is very simple: redeem 'no' in 20 days.,decrease,hold,False,True,841.146,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T03:52:11.298738Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"ur getting desperate seeing the price fall, its okay bro keep hope",decrease,decrease,True,True,1057.5967,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T19:24:56.221645Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"It's absurd to imagine people in the administration are not staked to Yes. But, I'm crazy and took No.",hold,decrease,False,True,14.125,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T14:29:44.726725Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Israel is still bombarding South Lebanon and HEzbollah has not come out to announce a ceasefire officially even though b,hold,decrease,False,True,190.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T23:49:32.807888Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"The top holders are still buying yes shares, sheeesh",hold,flip,False,True,269.5587,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T14:05:27.149932Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Kamala voters, if you don't like money you might as well donate them to me 0x0B7055D1285840c62f719B406A61f714b6927727",hold,increase,False,True,380.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T20:21:17.997916Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"What counts as Israeli territory? ""For the purposes of this market, the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory"".",flip,hold,False,True,63.4677,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T11:55:00.502682Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The intent of the market is to answer if Israel invaded Syria in 2024, so",increase,UNKNOWN,False,True,456.71,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T12:44:25.322276Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Money run the world, like always, even here.",increase,hold,False,True,463.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T00:15:06.504857Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Wtf, look at the voting. It was 86 vs 14 few minutes ago",hold,decrease,False,True,458.47,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T17:51:17.759072Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"I love blind money-YES bettors jump on every headline and ¡®breaking¡¯ alert, ignoring diplomacy and strategy entirely. ",flip,increase,False,True,19713.4866,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T01:46:54.077872Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,actually u can save your money if you stay on yes and bet 50$ to no it will balanced,decrease,decrease,True,True,4.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-18T23:58:27.469813Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,lol you don't need to do that they already don't read past headlines,hold,hold,True,True,5784.54,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T20:50:37.826467Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Trump talks big but acts pragmatically. No US troops killed, no nuclear breakout, no public casus belli = no real trigge",hold,increase,False,True,24441.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T15:22:17.765813Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"So says the man that went in at 53c, looool",decrease,hold,False,True,1354.9596,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-19T12:58:14.449768Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,YEStards keep falling for it over and over again,hold,increase,False,True,314.39,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T16:50:01.290503Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"If ever the AI God sees these comment section, humanity is fucked.",hold,hold,True,True,1.0886,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T00:07:09.110097Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"well, come back in some minutes and see for yourself",flip,hold,False,True,148.7815,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T22:34:20.769331Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The concept of a buffer zone, or DMZ is that it doesn't belong to any country. It's a neutral area. Which is why accordi",flip,hold,False,True,26926.1765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T20:11:55.792583Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"After yesterday evacuation order issued of one Syrian town, today Israel issues a second evacuation order to a two Syria",increase,increase,True,True,2985.2068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T19:17:03.317856Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Golan heights 2 can go from Mount Hermon to Damascus,flip,hold,False,True,63.4677,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T03:34:25.571272Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I'm going to donate my profits to support Israeli border defense in Syria.,flip,increase,False,True,3.06,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T14:40:42.676943Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"https://oracle.uma.xyz/ really strange. if i go to ""settled"" the site just freezes",hold,decrease,False,True,11191.0113,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T12:58:01.618412Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"no we have till 31 dec, as per the market rule untill yes is proven it will go",decrease,hold,False,True,36.4063,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T21:44:07.176192Z,US military action against Iran before July?,No he¡¯s saying you think people actually eat papa johns,hold,hold,True,True,2081.9978,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T10:04:45.498872Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"my dear Charlie83 , explain your evidence and view in UMA discord please",hold,hold,True,True,5338.6249,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T21:05:45.948945Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"you dont need evidence. You need ""n source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Syria, Israel, the U",decrease,increase,False,True,52.5019,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T20:26:31.643896Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,It¡¯s okay I forgive you always have respect,hold,hold,True,True,627.41,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T16:35:57.027873Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Starting a war with Iran sounds like political suicide for trump my bet is that he is sufficiently rational not to engag,decrease,increase,False,True,843.683,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T13:45:52.895304Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Can anyone point me to a source saying Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire? The only thing I see is an agreement with Lebano,flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T17:27:35.984643Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Polymarket CEO Liked my tweet from yesterday. Don't worry, the matter is being handled.",flip,hold,False,True,2329.7292,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T17:45:01.072471Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Can someone please exactly explain, how do you ""buy"" UMA votes and how much do they cost? Or how do you even get them?",hold,hold,True,True,71.57,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T11:16:19.793365Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"he means the stock market, not this market",decrease,hold,False,True,4328.1855,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T14:19:33.730568Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"P4 to early, The wording is clear, golan heights is excluded. This area has been disputed since 1967. Yes Israel used t",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:40:13.394332Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,MAGAAAA WHERE ARE YOU PEASANT HARRIS,increase,increase,True,True,734.6839,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-14T21:33:39.154895Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"People are underestimating the groomer vote. Trump looks like shit at 80 years old, while Kamala has an attractive Milf ",decrease,flip,False,True,2494.4061,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T23:25:33.758188Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Julani said, ""Israel's excuses for entering Syria no longer exist. After the Iranians' departure, there are no more just",increase,flip,False,True,931.39,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T04:28:41.089533Z,US military action against Iran before July?,global thermonuclear war needs to happen so I don¡¯t have to pay child support,increase,hold,False,True,195.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T22:51:59.563582Z,US military action against Iran before July?,I dont think its just another Israeli attack: Trump never said anything like that when Israel attacked. It would only ma,flip,increase,False,True,3318.898,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T13:29:17.994615Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Tired, check whatever map u can find, This is BBC:https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c390j9x9w9go wiki:https://en.wikip",hold,hold,True,True,5338.6249,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-11T15:15:08.396881Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Those who say it is part of the agreement :)),increase,decrease,False,True,38.8996,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T00:18:15.695692Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,These points collectively provide a compelling argument that Israel's actions after the fall of Assad can be considered ,increase,increase,True,True,456.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T21:18:43.731822Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,this guy kept buying lol i think he gonna spend $8 mil,hold,increase,False,True,493.37,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-06-03T07:30:18.191313Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"Ukraine won¡¯t forfeit territories while there¡¯s parity, ruzzia gains little territory while loosing a lot of men. At t",hold,increase,False,True,1015.19,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-28T15:36:10.531295Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,how is simion still 14% ??? what is this market lmao,hold,decrease,False,True,4.57,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T20:47:48.105561Z,US military action against Iran before July?,ALERT INFO - POTUS DONALD TRUMP HAS JUST DECLARED THAT EVERY HOLDER OF '' NO '' IS VERY GAY BECAUSE THEY DON'T UNDERSTAN,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T21:13:44.128266Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,ok then buy yes at these cheap prices,hold,flip,False,True,589.414,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T08:04:26.517833Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"kinda tired of all this idiocracy, wanna put all my questions in one post, receive 0 answers as usual and forget about t",increase,decrease,False,True,4.63,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T20:34:41.874017Z,US military action against Iran before July?,trump is even open for a ceasefire now which he was not open to before lol,flip,decrease,False,True,1168.5641,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T11:30:47.240097Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,The important part here is that the Hezbollah militant party operates independently of the Lebanese state. This means th,increase,increase,True,True,179.9977,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T10:08:40.988107Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Should I tell you all, this works like last ""Israel bombed Iran nuclear facility"". The tricky thing here is, after the ",decrease,decrease,True,True,16843.8696,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T11:32:15.855422Z,US military action against Iran before July?,NOTHING EVER HAPPENS. I nees to go all in,increase,increase,True,True,256.82,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T13:14:54.420811Z,US military action against Iran before July?,You have no idea how I'm trading this.,flip,hold,False,True,713.5767,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-15T19:35:20.063035Z,US military action against Iran before July?,This is hilarious: https://x.com/EliAfriatISR/status/1904126054517952602 too bad it won't bring us any moneys,increase,decrease,False,True,164.0146,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..46a90188efddfc21c97336d147fc13a8cf2af79e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,241 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +506968,2024-12-13T22:16:06.777333Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,If I have that right I'll place my orders now.,flip,increase,False,True,8.0172,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T18:37:47.390121Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,and btw the ceasfire is not official,flip,decrease,False,True,19.1412,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T08:04:26.517833Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"kinda tired of all this idiocracy, wanna put all my questions in one post, receive 0 answers as usual and forget about t",increase,decrease,False,True,4.63,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T07:04:57.845734Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Long live Trump, long live Musk, only Trump can save America",increase,increase,True,True,817.9405,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T14:12:13.712028Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"There was no an Gaza invasion. Its just a ""special forces defensive operartion"" LOL",increase,decrease,False,True,64.8,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T06:29:26.720535Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"I mean, the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory, so it means the previous control of Israeli administrative control",decrease,increase,False,True,2391.3336,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-16T23:52:34.761272Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"Joe Biden will be crushed, rip $1.5 million LOL",hold,decrease,False,True,1.8695,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T21:00:27.907221Z,US military action against Iran before July?,USA definitely strikes while Isreal is operating at Fordow,increase,flip,False,True,30.7488,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T20:53:26.484701Z,US military action against Iran before July?,keep dumping and then go work with iran on their nuclear weapon,flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T21:39:10.714645Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,When this market will be resolved as YES I;ll be just fine,decrease,hold,False,True,4727.4637,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T07:20:38.858057Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,the highest point of Mount Hermon itself is not within this region; it lies across the border in Syria.,flip,hold,False,True,51.4484,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T20:39:55.323048Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"in which newspaper can i read about such ""invasion"", where is the syrian government talking about this ""invasion""",hold,increase,False,True,1057.5967,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:23:10.795332Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Waiting my deposit to buy more dump yes pls,increase,increase,True,True,515.57,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T19:29:54.213516Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,just look in the uma discord server...its over,decrease,flip,False,True,815.4339,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:23:33.017138Z,US military action against Iran before July?,no sayers are delusional americans lol,increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554695,2025-06-23T16:40:49.141134Z,Another US military action against Iran by Monday?,"It¡¯s looks like Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, USA, Uk are all about to beat down on Iran lol",hold,increase,False,True,250.9356,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T19:58:28.528461Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,This market is being manipulated by UMA,hold,decrease,False,True,745.3306,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T20:20:10.376176Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Do Islamists do any weird stuff?,flip,decrease,False,True,302.0599,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T18:33:53.657801Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"I am against war, let peace come as soon as possible",decrease,hold,False,True,988.4572,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T09:09:39.382698Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"""For the purposes of this market, the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory.""",decrease,hold,False,True,2806.5148,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:45:54.698698Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Only one file has to be good for this market to resolve yes. Thank you for playing.,decrease,hold,False,True,12197.2755,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554011,2025-06-21T05:44:33.025621Z,US military action against Iran by Monday?,Half of the b2 fleet didn¡¯t just fly over him,flip,increase,False,True,519.5242,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T23:06:53.232277Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Thanks for your expert analysis Jenkins.,hold,hold,True,True,400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T19:51:24.458501Z,US military action against Iran before July?,JUST IN: PM Netanyahu says Israel does not need Americas help to reach its goals in Iran.,flip,decrease,False,True,67.6136,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-28T08:22:47.359162Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Isn't the Island of Puerto Rico made from Garbage? That's what they taught us in School,decrease,hold,False,True,1177.4878,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T09:38:21.664843Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Yes holders attempted to use intimidation to get me to sell and insulted me for wasting money. But now my shares have ap,decrease,increase,False,True,428.0443,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T21:09:53.816449Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Iran heavily attacking on israel,flip,increase,False,True,785.82,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T16:31:13.717006Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,What about you guys? Will you question your own perception once you lost your children¡®s milk money?,hold,decrease,False,True,83.86,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T00:17:52.143367Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel has occupied Mount Hermon. The summit of Mount Hermon is not in the Golan Heights, but rather on the border betwe",hold,increase,False,True,310.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T09:05:42.499811Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"It's disputed territory, no way does that count.",decrease,hold,False,True,89.91,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T16:42:38.263226Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,gonna give it 6 hours before @yesyesyesyesyes capitulates,increase,decrease,False,True,6934.3046,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-25T02:48:34.716883Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Female President is a terrible idea all together.,hold,hold,True,True,950.72,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T19:55:48.370747Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,definition of invasion as per cambridge dictionary: an occasion when an army or country uses force to enter and take con,flip,hold,False,True,177.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T08:52:25.193294Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Ofc i forgot to mention some creepy commenters jn this place. May Jesus punish them this xmas.,hold,hold,True,True,4.98,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T16:33:05.330574Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,The rules say an official agreement needs to be announced by both Hezbollah and Israel. Only Israel and Lebanon have ann,flip,hold,False,True,118.8851,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T15:18:07.493933Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Yes-Washington is finally starting to doubt Israel¡¯s long-running claim that Iran is ¡®about to get the nuclear.¡¯ They,increase,hold,False,True,16222.9598,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T17:04:36.656982Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I went in yesterday at 35. Because I knew the facts. The bet was resolved. You didn't listen.,hold,increase,False,True,38.7139,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T13:07:02.222304Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,i can only see the spiderman meme,flip,hold,False,True,46.2064,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T19:49:34.986635Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Polymarket.com is trying hard to get back to US market. If they are reported for fraud by people, they must dream of goi",increase,hold,False,True,61.9445,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T14:37:07.997064Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"No, it¡¯s any part of Siria but not that part",decrease,flip,False,True,353.5744,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-10T16:11:07.450957Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"keep buying no, thanks for the pump",hold,flip,False,True,2.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T17:16:28.356109Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,This is from somebody else on the discord. AP News: Read the caption on the 3rd photo: https://apnews.com/article/syria-,increase,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-11-27T15:31:36.002974Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,"how brain washed can these people be lol, kamala supporters. Woke about to die in Romania. Go to the UK which is the fir",hold,increase,False,True,451.7243,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T11:24:49.596892Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"You are avoiding reality and, in the process, annihilating your P&L",flip,flip,True,True,26926.1765,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T18:29:45.942483Z,US military action against Iran before July?,the mental gymnastics in these comments are hilarious,decrease,hold,False,True,507.86,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T10:17:54.538107Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"The IDF says an airstrike in central Gaza killed Ali Saadi Wasfi al-Agha, a senior Mujahideen Brigades commander tied to",increase,hold,False,True,2923.5683,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:05:58.345918Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Hmm wise words from you Rainer,decrease,hold,False,True,1.39,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T07:19:09.278276Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,someone has to pay 750 to propose yes,flip,hold,False,True,51.4484,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T07:07:41.357784Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Stop being racist we won we deserve a piece more the jihadi people,decrease,increase,False,True,10163.2992,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T10:49:21.662766Z,US military action against Iran before July?,intercepting does not mean military action Against Iran,increase,hold,False,True,106.15,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-18T07:25:01.953958Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,good luck getting a NO vote on UMA,hold,hold,True,True,1401.5798,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T23:46:17.068073Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,First time for everything (or even a second time),hold,hold,True,True,1116.5702,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T20:50:48.042121Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"it has to wait until dec31 clearly, a different invasion could start any moment",hold,decrease,False,True,456.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:11:16.281574Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,No nothing has been released look at December 20 and 31,hold,increase,False,True,627.41,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T13:40:29.614345Z,US military action against Iran before July?,None of this would've happened if we FREED EPSTEIN,hold,hold,True,True,7631.35,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-05-26T03:16:08.191919Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"Yet here we are, betting on the same outcome...",hold,hold,True,True,36572.9542,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T18:27:55.392516Z,US military action against Iran before July?,you could definitely write a chrome extension to do this!,increase,hold,False,True,730.3568,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T12:31:07.003835Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Someone didn't read the rules.,hold,hold,True,True,89.91,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T18:08:19.878534Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Yo brochachos but yes and at 3 pm ill buy no more,increase,hold,False,True,448.41,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T19:49:46.205974Z,US military action against Iran before July?,After all this Trump still says he did not shut the door for a Deal AND now its official that Iran has asked to for Nego,decrease,decrease,True,True,1749.7162,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T13:55:42.924965Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"It is DONE. They passed the bufer zone, they are in Saida, Syria. We can cal that an Invasion brothers in YES",increase,increase,True,True,31.732,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554011,2025-06-21T16:01:55.001301Z,US military action against Iran by Monday?,"Because b2 often will station at Diego Garcia for a week or two before conducting missions, this is to ensure that any s",decrease,increase,False,True,252.1432,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T11:36:53.146082Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"The US strategy is to support Israel, not become a co-belligerent. Gen. Clark explicitly advocates for a strategy where ",decrease,increase,False,True,61560.8528,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-11T15:05:05.889276Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Dozens of rockets in Haifa. Peace is very close.,increase,flip,False,True,38.8996,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-20T14:40:17.490907Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,@bernardbulletin then ask grok again if they meet all the requirements fully of this bet and it willl say no no,increase,hold,False,True,23.62,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T17:53:55.221961Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Does anyone know when the last carrier group arrives?,increase,decrease,False,True,504.4844,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T23:14:09.195139Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Foolish no holders betting against every single war the USA has been involved in in the Middle East as a result of israe,increase,increase,True,True,730.3568,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T20:54:14.964867Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,do you guys know when the vote should resolve for today?,increase,hold,False,True,1204.6202,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T22:57:45.137169Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"They probably thought it was an easy done deal, without reading the rules",increase,decrease,False,True,252.192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T15:20:21.184531Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Formal statement of P Netanyahu: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r1cfs7qvkg,hold,UNKNOWN,False,True,5135.0083,UNKNOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T18:14:04.919891Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Notards fell for fake news again. You deserve to lose,decrease,flip,False,True,54.6404,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T20:05:20.383169Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,can a innocent man rest in peace let's not talk about it guys,increase,decrease,False,True,19.57,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T00:55:57.046337Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"not like nothing, last time it happened it dropped from 50c to 30....",flip,decrease,False,True,831.6951,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-18T16:49:30.019163Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Hochstein postponing his visit is a huge disappointment,decrease,decrease,True,True,3300.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T17:33:03.426415Z,US military action against Iran before July?,NEW: Trump¡¯s National Security Advisor/ Secretary of State are meeting today with the UK¡¯s Foreign Secretary amid the ,increase,increase,True,True,1925.0083,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T23:56:13.639945Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"tip me, i am hungry :CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC",increase,hold,False,True,100.7602,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T21:50:06.621078Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,maybe but there's actually no way it happens tonight,flip,increase,False,True,89.673,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T16:17:31.237659Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"To my friend Alexparker. Rest now, brother. We have the watch, and I'll see you in Valhalla",flip,hold,False,True,28.8553,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T08:20:13.680847Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"NONONONO I want yes at 80c where is my free money, NO holder please pump it again I want to buy more I need good price",decrease,decrease,True,True,10163.2992,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T23:30:35.173533Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Australia being one of USA's closest intelligence allies and closing their embassy in Tehran is not a coincidence..,decrease,increase,False,True,123.82,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T05:50:15.111276Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"this is so unclear, if us gave weapon to israel, and they attacked iran soil with the weapon, is this a yes or no",increase,decrease,False,True,10595.0002,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T20:19:46.646Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Been waiting for a dip to 50 cents....,increase,decrease,False,True,931.26,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-02T07:25:40.132696Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kamala Harris is a Palestinian genocide,hold,hold,True,True,20.69,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T08:04:05.126116Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Iran¡¯s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, quoted by the IRNA news agency, stated that there¡¯s no room for dialogue with t",hold,decrease,False,True,535.7249,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T17:26:03.760402Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"didnt work, now my balances are displaying 0",decrease,decrease,True,True,197.1242,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T16:21:14.137147Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Remember when Charlie83 said that he had a good feeling that Yes will come out on top in the vote? The secret ""yes wave""",flip,decrease,False,True,302.0599,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T03:43:40.568922Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Here is lots of evidence, sources and quotes regarding ""Military offensive intended to establish control"", and ""past the",flip,increase,False,True,23000.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-16T21:00:57.430682Z,US military action against Iran before August?,Gemini analysis: The risk of US military action is high but constrained. Washington has a clear red line against attack,flip,decrease,False,True,87.1472,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T18:24:05.161575Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,I¡¯m up 50% in only 40mins ?????,flip,decrease,False,True,138.3711,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T17:12:45.646785Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,will just get purple line right? right??,flip,hold,False,True,15.6631,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-20T02:10:49.526423Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"something about redeeming, like you earned them. cmon UMA",hold,hold,True,True,1696.1628,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T14:37:28.486124Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,what is the price target for this pump?,decrease,decrease,True,True,152.1281,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T12:46:08.642569Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel invaded Khan Arnabeh, and just a while ago also Umm Batnah. Both villages are undoubtedly beyond the Buffer Zone.",decrease,increase,False,True,56.1595,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T16:48:51.110534Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Alright so Pentagon said they are not striking. Wonder if they could just lie through their Teeth Im sure there has to b,flip,decrease,False,True,946.2766,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-20T00:06:45.771216Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Surprising still 10% defecting to P4,decrease,hold,False,True,29804.5172,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T09:47:48.538773Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"No, the Golan Heights does not include all of Mount Hermon. The mountain massif spans multiple territories and is divide",hold,hold,True,True,1896.64,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554011,2025-06-21T18:20:18.111228Z,US military action against Iran by Monday?,is polymarket just unusable on desktop for anyone else? tried clearing cookies and everything,increase,hold,False,True,46.2521,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T14:26:46.436094Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"2nd day in a row Iran has used fragmentation bombs in civil areas, breaching the international law.",flip,increase,False,True,706.0877,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T22:29:36.383771Z,US military action against Iran before July?,BREAKING: According To OSDefence on X: Houthis launch a surprize attack on Diego Garcia,decrease,increase,False,True,1.5305,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +558663,2025-07-04T13:46:50.536704Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,u lost money on suit u stupid and you don¡¯t need money,decrease,hold,False,True,255.2,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T21:50:48.800223Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"If were going to be sticklers for the rule, Polymarket should at least be consistent.",increase,hold,False,True,189.607,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T07:02:58.664289Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,yes right that what your face news said ?? yes is an invasion buy more so i can buy more,decrease,flip,False,True,383.5753,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T19:52:05.726518Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"A disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria, signed following the Yom Kippur War of October 1973, established a U",flip,hold,False,True,63.4677,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T04:34:59.842101Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Alright, 60% returns is my entry point. Time to go back in.",hold,increase,False,True,4172.8913,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T06:22:33.690999Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,does that mean no buyers would profit or no one wins anything,hold,hold,True,True,30.5893,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:54:44.360923Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,ScottyNooo bought 57 213 No for December 19,hold,increase,False,True,10449.99,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T01:55:37.169481Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,truth is there was a ceasefire and this market will be proof once it resolves yes,decrease,increase,False,True,1777.7,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T21:24:47.991448Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Btw if iran accepts stopping enriching urainum most probably usa will hit fordow facility no holders will lose eitherway,flip,hold,False,True,1249.76,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T05:19:01.967142Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,This is great! I hope they keep buying no. YES shares are gonna be cheaper,flip,increase,False,True,26926.1765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-17T15:19:11.323662Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,"Simple logic: Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize. Putin finds Trump burdensome. In a one-on-one phone call, Putin will fe",increase,increase,True,True,7.8042,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T15:09:01.702352Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"i have $140 in realized gains, and i'll make another $45 from my current position",flip,decrease,False,True,6401.4464,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T16:41:06.441942Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,the extremists in israel would not be happy if israel takes the moon but they dont get the sun... syrian land is of litt,increase,increase,True,True,391.9973,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T22:01:48.876227Z,US military action against Iran before July?,there is not such thing as market maker here,increase,hold,False,True,337.8287,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-10T22:15:16.018184Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,"It's 6pm here in DC, that's why I figure",decrease,hold,False,True,162.3424,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T16:43:02.552852Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,law in EEUU? ahahaha sure brother,decrease,increase,False,True,356.8002,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T23:16:13.390548Z,US military action against Iran before July?,This was the highest the market will go,increase,decrease,False,True,9.461,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T13:07:40.159968Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"saturday came, nothing happened, just as expected. this means the two more weeks is exactly what many thought it was",increase,increase,True,True,4.374,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-06T16:27:16.681108Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,"that guy is not ok, he is right",decrease,flip,False,True,55.322,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T12:38:45.667957Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Not in conservative American VC circles,decrease,hold,False,True,2828.2172,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T23:30:12.220036Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,stop crying. you had your chance to sell at break even or even in the green. you didnt do it.,increase,decrease,False,True,604.4277,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T01:18:44.940049Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"no invasion, just small and peaceful IDF presence in Syria ))))",flip,increase,False,True,29933.441,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T10:21:44.349093Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,that why you dont buy 430k shares of anything if something happens you cant leave the market,decrease,decrease,True,True,1504.5161,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T12:12:07.300963Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"They need to change it, it would be safer",increase,decrease,False,True,1548.9974,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T22:54:57.099316Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,It's funny because this is true!,flip,hold,False,True,26926.1765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T21:46:50.565382Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Israeli political and military leaders have stressed that the seizure of the buffer zone is temporary and not a prelude ,increase,increase,True,True,27.9,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T07:18:56.288431Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,For the sake of your families and ultimately your financial future PLEASE take a look at the likely electoral outcomes b,decrease,increase,False,True,38323.183,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T03:18:51.495549Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"yess, this is like a final effort i think. 50-50",hold,decrease,False,True,164.5267,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T21:12:54.966063Z,US military action against Iran before July?,any youtube live for watch trump speech?,flip,hold,False,True,584.9447,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T09:45:18.365424Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Tommorow, the army is still operating in the buffer zone which is 20 km away from Damascus.",flip,increase,False,True,1128.219,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T20:57:52.043068Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,the moon is part of the golan heights !,hold,hold,True,True,16.5083,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T15:25:47.978782Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"melenia have 91,427 shares on YES and its not showing on top holders",flip,hold,False,True,46.2064,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T15:24:53.163906Z,US military action against Iran before July?,mbe dart sold to introduce panic so he could buy cheaper?,decrease,decrease,True,True,886.5201,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T23:56:28.929057Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,hi everyone! Who is Golan please?,flip,hold,False,True,304.6905,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T11:47:28.469968Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Trump is known to change his mind 10 times a day. Insider also knows that.,decrease,decrease,True,True,2.5982,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T14:39:10.751996Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"suprising to see people who are trading 100,000s have the same level of brainrot as a typical broke basement dweller tro",flip,decrease,False,True,19.36,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554707,2025-06-23T19:05:49.539372Z,Another US military action against Iran by June 30?,"If I lose this, I will start working as a prostitue....",decrease,decrease,True,True,70.5681,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T23:22:51.798549Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,lmaoooo and people still gonna buy no,decrease,flip,False,True,432.17,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T14:13:05.679653Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"You have to knot that Israel's ""invasion"" you saw , was the maximum of it. It will not follow anything bigger. Damascus",increase,increase,True,True,177.4244,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T00:43:42.223437Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I don't understand how a clarification is supposed to help 'Yes.' A clarification at this time will be most likely going,decrease,hold,False,True,815.838,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T20:20:57.208174Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"The #USA have postponed the consideration of new sanctions against the #Russie at least until July, citing the priority ",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-06-26T05:37:02.853154Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,Guys its not realistic to expect negotiations of such a conflict to last a few days. That 89% is very undervalued.,hold,increase,False,True,800.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T00:37:09.994216Z,US military action against Iran before July?,The LGBT community loves Iran: Lets Go Bomb Tel-Aviv,hold,hold,True,True,1027.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T12:38:53.926334Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,It feels like this is no longer a trend prediction and people can even predict the opposite of what has happened,increase,decrease,False,True,344.61,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +558663,2025-07-04T21:26:00.547293Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,???????? Israel will just murder them all now,hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T00:58:54.531666Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Wouldn't it in current situation be in everyone's interest (even the shillest of YES holders) to buy a shitload of NOs a,increase,increase,True,True,269.98,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T22:48:27.160935Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,This is a scam but im buying YES tokens to dumb on the person reading this comment,flip,flip,True,True,2946.6025,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T19:29:58.240998Z,US military action against Iran before July?,that attack was done by Israel dumbass,decrease,hold,False,True,1097.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T17:05:41.989542Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"So is Shayne your savior or just another ""scammer""?",flip,hold,False,True,280.675,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-14T14:10:19.227695Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Trump will want to join in the glory of the victory, can't let his buddy Bibi fight alone now can he",decrease,increase,False,True,163.924,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T13:37:20.766496Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"there is no such thing palastinians, its made up name, show me where it is on the map",flip,hold,False,True,46.2064,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T17:43:21.943508Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"panic buying by people tho think it will go back up to 90c again, one can only hope...",decrease,decrease,True,True,815.4339,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-06-04T08:11:37.804734Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,And Palestinians are rats and I hope they will dislocate,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T04:23:12.320296Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Correct, switch now for the most fun",increase,flip,False,True,65.0489,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T07:09:39.304663Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"no middle east animals, no problems. the innocent are ok though",flip,hold,False,True,51.4484,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T02:32:56.780339Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,**P4 - TOO EARLY ** There is no point within the rules specifying the country in which this ceasefire must go into ef,hold,increase,False,True,275.83,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T08:08:32.402702Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"nothing will happen for the next 2 days, if you think otherwise go bet on the june 19 or 20 market, you get way better v",flip,increase,False,True,66.2958,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-25T17:18:10.949741Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Huh¡­ good thing Ben Gvir has publicly come out against the agreement.. does smotrich? With both of them, June 2024 will",increase,increase,True,True,1241.6101,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T19:13:17.021248Z,US military action against Iran before July?,yay no people are hard selling :'),hold,hold,True,True,89.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-19T17:58:46.001851Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Lollllll poeple will loose so much money told you he will not attack better get out before you go to 0 guys,flip,increase,False,True,1868.07,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-12T17:55:50.822407Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,"After that $50K loss SAtANTANGO took on the China deal before the June market, he¡¯s about to take a second hit--and the",decrease,decrease,True,True,209.458,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T12:09:27.863492Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"also read the following, again from your source: The Golan Heights have distinct geographic boundaries.[184] On the nort",hold,hold,True,True,27116.0855,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T17:34:04.815097Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,i know right? $1 can turn to 100$ EASILY!,flip,increase,False,True,3909.5785,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T20:36:16.502402Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,what more do they need honestly they are already in syria,increase,increase,True,True,430.0909,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T13:53:15.480388Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,only real asks are at like 46 and itll get eaten in an hour so,flip,hold,False,True,26926.1765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T21:28:17.975137Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,its literally not gambiling ..,decrease,hold,False,True,349.1381,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-03T18:05:04.894731Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,How can I check the results of voting?,hold,hold,True,True,703.8509,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-25T22:40:52.766549Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"In my experience with sports betting, the loudest voices are usually the ones who end up losing, while those who actuall",hold,hold,True,True,781.1753,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T01:48:11.135149Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"They will Dump again(70k) ,all No buyers be cautious.",hold,decrease,False,True,0.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T22:19:12.065529Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Remember guys, don't ever take advice from people with negative P&L!",flip,hold,False,True,26926.1765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T11:37:10.428695Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"The Pentagon has a multi-decade history of actively resisting being dragged into a direct war with Iran, viewing it as a",decrease,increase,False,True,61560.8528,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T19:09:18.333381Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Is the realse supposed to happen at or before 3,increase,hold,False,True,548.41,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T22:53:28.454992Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Historically the base they captured is considered Syrian control. It¡¯s the highest point on mt Hermon. Israel only had ,flip,decrease,False,True,44.6621,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T18:13:34.913437Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"very interesting, israel invaded syria without using a single bullet and the whole world is silent,",flip,flip,True,True,815.4339,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T21:04:41.647046Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,This comment section should be on TV,decrease,hold,False,True,36.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T11:35:54.746255Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,alexParker Are you a god or a liar? plz god,increase,hold,False,True,3647.9637,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T09:05:31.017773Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"So next one please, Al-Wehda Dam, how is that one part of Golan?",increase,hold,False,True,16.82,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T21:59:38.510641Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Yes currently asking to speak to the manager.,increase,decrease,False,True,934.467,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-30T14:48:31.190495Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Well they can't be errors in both directions lol,hold,hold,True,True,249.5676,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T14:19:23.813366Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"another 350k votes for YES in 20 mins, its over I guess",hold,flip,False,True,158.5869,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T17:01:48.598678Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,yea but i havent seen it so obvious.,increase,decrease,False,True,27.7444,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T16:35:17.091669Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"lmao currently if nothing happens NO wins, YES needs israel action so who's more likely to win huh?",flip,hold,False,True,16.0824,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T02:06:10.507102Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,doesnt make sense to dump when there is no yes buy pressure...,flip,hold,False,True,137.8907,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T17:42:17.390054Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Look at what he said when the founder of UMA asked him if they think whales are manipulating the market: ""all good, you ",flip,hold,False,True,280.675,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T07:27:04.804662Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"on the positive side, the proof isnt getting worse",hold,hold,True,True,1796.65,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T22:39:28.969658Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Only an artiste will understand what you mean.,decrease,hold,False,True,139.616,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T16:00:53.891453Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"this is not going to 0 folks, it was a fun run but IDF is literally outside UNDOF lines, and they havent began a offensi",flip,decrease,False,True,103.0007,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T16:21:05.929134Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Foolish UMA voters assumed that 99% chance was a reflection of actual evidence, instead it is a merely a reflection of a",decrease,increase,False,True,392.37,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T17:12:18.617136Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Cope and buy more no. This is about to get resolved,increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T07:36:50.989593Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Also, if it's anything at all, then they might be training IDF pilots in a two week crash course, then the US will sell/",hold,hold,True,True,887.2903,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:30:05.477168Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Mario Nawfal already showed new unseen pictures of Bill Clinton, this market will resolve yes.",decrease,increase,False,True,14.96,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-24T00:20:27.579953Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"If we lose, we'll all go to the CFTC/SEC/FinCEN and set their asses on fire.",hold,increase,False,True,29.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-11-24T20:23:35.029694Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,"that was impressive, I must admit ??",hold,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +558663,2025-07-03T14:48:14.195707Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,please dont fuck this up Hamas.,increase,decrease,False,True,96.9052,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-14T19:16:47.620244Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Come on USA do something. Your Master has ordered you,flip,hold,False,True,66.0709,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T20:44:16.568647Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,It is gambling. Risking 10M for 10k?,increase,decrease,False,True,73.5111,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-14T18:07:38.681859Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"UK is already involved: A British destroyer in the northern Indian Ocean was intercepted in the Persian Gulf, Iran¡¯s na",flip,increase,False,True,312.7217,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +558663,2025-07-04T08:28:40.178394Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutua",hold,decrease,False,True,2311.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T16:46:10.639341Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,15 mins to go. OH MY FUCKING GOOODDD!!,decrease,increase,False,True,133.7063,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T09:01:03.874519Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"its literally impossible to invade other than across the border. If you look at the map, Golan Heights could be interpre",hold,hold,True,True,456.71,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560539,2025-07-07T16:16:32.944809Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,https://x.com/yanircozin/status/1942255075050639774 JUST BOUGHT MORE YES. NOT 100% BUT CONSIDER THE REAL DIFFRANCES NOW ,hold,increase,False,True,21.58,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T21:46:28.309836Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Doctor has said that Noem needs 3 XianZhang loads on her face,hold,hold,True,True,1027.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-05T14:55:38.944955Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,CCR meeting at 17:00 to decide if they cancel the votes. Let's gooo,hold,increase,False,True,136.657,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T07:21:18.572403Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"e resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Syria, Israel, the United Nations, or any p",decrease,hold,False,True,2608.2197,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T17:21:37.899865Z,US military action against Iran before July?,US CONGRESSMAN MASSIE INTRODUCES THE IRAN WAR POWERS RESOLUTION TO PROHIBIT US INVOLVEMENT IN THE ISRAEL-IRAN WAR.,flip,decrease,False,True,2069.0252,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T13:54:36.080819Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Two days to launch the product. Money on the floor. https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-release-gpt-5-in-2024/wil,flip,decrease,False,True,2329.7292,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T18:59:17.070407Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"I think also if Polymarket is pushed into removing the context message, yes will crash and UMA will no longer want to re",increase,decrease,False,True,35.6991,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T06:58:48.640024Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,the israelis are taking pictures of the invasion bro haha just open X,flip,increase,False,True,33.534,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T22:43:53.201342Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"again, yes pumpers talking about ""resistance"" do not understand this has been voted 3 times as NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE to co",flip,increase,False,True,2946.6025,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T14:26:32.223088Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Alex, even though I'm currently super afraid at the moment. Your courage and resilience are the things I'm clinging on a",hold,decrease,False,True,109.32,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T20:50:04.372777Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,the uma voted no to invasion in lebanon september even tho on the last day it was clear israel had invaded and the marke,decrease,hold,False,True,815.4339,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T18:19:03.553759Z,US military action against Iran before July?,BREAKING: US Navy vessels have been deployed into the Persian Gulf from Bahrain.,hold,increase,False,True,285.8639,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T00:13:49.425064Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Crazy bro good luck to the no bro,hold,hold,True,True,3.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-31T13:13:04.806002Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I missunderstandings, I bet Trump No - I tink mean ""No way he can loose""",hold,flip,False,True,995.11,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T16:46:23.052729Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Yes! ???? In this case, you're right...",decrease,hold,False,True,194.88,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-14T21:14:04.705588Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"First of all, I¡¯m not your bro",flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554012,2025-06-21T19:22:31.392118Z,US military action against Iran by Sunday?,might accept a small loss on july just so i can buy saturday no at 65,decrease,decrease,True,True,329.51,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T01:19:23.939969Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,So this is decided by who ever has deeper pockets ? The fuck is that? Lmfao I¡¯m fairly new to polymarket and will never,hold,decrease,False,True,131.39,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T20:16:53.356318Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,i'm sad about the lives destroyed by war btw,flip,decrease,False,True,19.1412,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T16:38:17.303716Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"""its the voters who are wrong""",flip,hold,False,True,280.675,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T00:47:11.359791Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,cmon in time for christmas too,decrease,hold,False,True,1896.64,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T08:54:05.882333Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Netanyahu vows 'intense reaction' to terror group's entrenchment in south Lebanon will continue, Paris reportedly says I",decrease,decrease,True,True,428.0443,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554012,2025-06-21T23:34:05.640806Z,US military action against Iran by Sunday?,"BREAKING: ""The recent Israeli strikes in the past hours in Iran were aimed at thwarting potential threats that could end",decrease,decrease,True,True,64.8163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T22:39:56.553529Z,US military action against Iran before July?,1953 Iran called and wants its democracy back.,increase,decrease,False,True,2.0734,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T13:11:59.393744Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Therefore the market must resolve to NO,increase,hold,False,True,45.2181,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-15T18:26:42.415183Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"""Volodymyr Zelensky, who is not invited to the summit, says Ukraine is ""counting on America"" and there's ""no indication""",increase,increase,True,True,105.2,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T21:29:07.162159Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,No people fearing for their life. I'll just buy more yes,increase,increase,True,True,2176.9388,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T21:21:59.603006Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Look either you go with the geographic definition of Golan or a political one. If Khan Arnabeh was taken by Israel and y,hold,increase,False,True,597.55,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T15:33:50.047302Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) did not face resistance when it seized Syrian outposts outside of the disengagement zone,increase,increase,True,True,1570.4722,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527882,2025-03-17T09:27:09.852714Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?,"@TychoBrahe, wants to pull out $0.5 mill from Friday market. Good luck, unfortunately, don't have a capital to deploy mo",hold,decrease,False,True,17016.1024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T12:53:24.021845Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"50,000 people used to live here, now its a ghost town",hold,increase,False,True,12.0323,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T22:11:54.998778Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Go disput pls I wait money on polymarket , I want buy more yes)",decrease,increase,False,True,567.25,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T12:04:42.133852Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Whales would rather bet millions to win thousands than thousands to win millions. You still believe in the ""no"" option G",hold,hold,True,True,580.5407,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T02:56:05.975375Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,He¡¯ll sell at a loss again no doubt,flip,decrease,False,True,29933.441,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-29T15:49:57.404519Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,bro ur profit/loss is at $0 what are you yapping about,hold,hold,True,True,34.45,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T00:27:52.354701Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Guys chill, it will take 24-48hrs to count all votes and stuff, and its good news for the No holders, as longer time mea",increase,increase,True,True,61.0706,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-06-01T18:42:20.325685Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,Fools parting with their money lol,increase,increase,True,True,5992.38,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T19:26:45.418435Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"villages and towns: Ofaniyan, Quneitra, Al-Hamidiyah, Al-Samadania Al-Gharbiya,Al-Qahtaniya are under control of IDF, th",flip,increase,False,True,177.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T12:58:07.003492Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"""Israeli ground forces advanced beyond the demilitarized zone on the Israel-Syria border over the weekend, marking their",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T14:24:02.944731Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"if you can hear me, please uma please save me..please save me uma please im asking you please save me please get these n",decrease,decrease,True,True,56.7558,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T23:16:38.360684Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Your profile shows that you bought 101 shares of No at 1 cent.,increase,hold,False,True,170.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..81ea4a1033a7e48630bb44b2f668b1d263c1188b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,241 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +554707,2025-06-23T18:24:54.741325Z,Another US military action against Iran by June 30?,It's bets like this that are fun. You throw in $100 and can wake up tomorrow with $3k.,flip,increase,False,True,92.14,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T16:38:17.854689Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"CNN reported this: ""Israeli cabinet vote on Lebanon ceasefire delayed amid strikes in Beirut""",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-30T22:28:39.933966Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Democrats are against free speech,increase,hold,False,True,991.45,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T19:19:00.411305Z,US military action against Iran before July?,I'm not cooked. it's not happening,increase,increase,True,True,444.122,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T17:53:41.914428Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,hello my friends my English is really bad lol I dont understand this what is going on,increase,hold,False,True,174.74,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T13:30:57.389542Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,buy more yes and keep gambling,decrease,increase,False,True,77.8853,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T20:26:30.790535Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"I'm very hopeful. Going through uma discord server, mostly are voting NO, and the yes voters cannot even say anything ot",hold,decrease,False,True,1494.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:44:05.004084Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Just hold, nothing illegal was released nor will be",increase,hold,False,True,52.07,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T00:11:39.420436Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Who tf cares about Hezbollah outlet Al-Mayadeen, you think spamming them will save you?",flip,hold,False,True,13.059,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-05T14:05:56.710256Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,"enjoy your loss, if you maintain your positions. Don't bet against the system, the will of all educated Romanians, NATO ",decrease,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T21:49:58.712664Z,US military action against Iran before July?,You can only know a B-2 Stealth Bomber has been deployed after it has already struck its target.,flip,decrease,False,True,2150.3357,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-20T22:29:49.963691Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,lol involvement of world leaders is your thesis? Putins political fate is tied directly to the outcome of this war. He n,hold,increase,False,True,541.075,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T23:42:21.999324Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,The Polymarket crew asks the CEO of Hezbollah.,increase,hold,False,True,0.47,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T18:34:03.926866Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Brother STFU and show me the new files,decrease,hold,False,True,356.8002,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T00:30:25.778902Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"P4 too soon is one thing, but P1 No another. We will see if over 50% of UMA voters think Israel invaded Syria or not eit",increase,decrease,False,True,456.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T04:40:55.432548Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Stop being negative, it ain't over till it's over. We're still in this",hold,increase,False,True,471.9999,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-14T21:39:54.928712Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I¡¯m a porn addict who has jerked it to Kamala guess what I¡¯m still voting trump lol,hold,increase,False,True,43.54,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T21:48:52.109727Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,So they intended to establish a defensive position?,flip,decrease,False,True,3.06,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T00:58:55.277398Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"I would never do it, but I wouldn't turn down the chance to get my money out faster.",decrease,decrease,True,True,433.6306,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T11:47:28.469968Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Trump is known to change his mind 10 times a day. Insider also knows that.,decrease,decrease,True,True,2.5982,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T08:55:47.946455Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I am a Chinese person, and I am well aware of what the Democratic Party is doing now, which is why I support Trump. I wa",decrease,increase,False,True,210.11,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T02:11:47.896774Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,im begging u to look at uma discord server and see older markets before u lose more moneyu,flip,decrease,False,True,137.8907,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T20:44:59.303078Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,how about the 1 millions fucking dollars whale that bet no,hold,hold,True,True,1000.38,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T03:38:08.154844Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,P4 - Nothing has changed on the ground since last voting round,flip,hold,False,True,280.675,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T19:54:15.604147Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Netanyahu confirmed the collapse of agreement, which defined the UN administrated buffer zone.",decrease,increase,False,True,302.34,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-02T15:22:30.078409Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,Geoana my man take the lead from here,decrease,flip,False,True,2.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T20:24:06.399384Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Syrian refugee girls down to 13 years of age are married off by their parents. Ok dw Syria is already cooked,flip,hold,False,True,302.0599,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-20T16:06:59.902814Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Why 20 and 31 December are solved and 19 December is not solved?,hold,decrease,False,True,246.503,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-11-24T19:57:34.037877Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,Lasconi is currently on the 6th place at the live counting,hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T22:14:06.996834Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Please share the link thanks!!,decrease,hold,False,True,2654.8624,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-25T17:37:02.139435Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"tbh, its still only isreal side, I didnt see any info from Hezbollah that they want it",increase,increase,True,True,627.7969,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T15:00:51.339389Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,December 20 and 31 are resolved as yes on December 19. Precedent has been set. Don't expect this to resolve as no. Sell ,hold,decrease,False,True,2538.0053,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T13:25:26.248204Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"First article is pay walled, and that still looks like DMZ to me",flip,hold,False,True,25.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T19:20:18.925566Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"what happen ,why there is no such dm for me,that's not fair",hold,hold,True,True,5338.6249,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T00:56:57.314945Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,1. Annexation is not the point. The market is not about annexation; it is about whether Israel has launched a military o,flip,increase,False,True,27116.0855,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T01:05:02.413473Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Resolving this to yes (at this time) would be a huge hit to Polymarket's credibility,increase,hold,False,True,398.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T17:48:37.126321Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,What will happen to the money yes people cashout already in case no was the correct answer? How are they gonna compensat,hold,decrease,False,True,5.96,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T11:12:48.549403Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,they did admit to operating outside of the buffer zone,flip,increase,False,True,27116.0855,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T06:10:14.428346Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,which major news outlet has called this an invasion? as far as i know not even Al-Jazeera did that,increase,increase,True,True,90.3207,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +552845,2025-06-24T06:16:04.832798Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,Netanyahu just confirmed the ceasefire,decrease,increase,False,True,476.6694,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-28T09:53:22.766077Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Help, I bet on Kamala, I¡¯m mentally challenged",hold,decrease,False,True,4156.9718,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T00:07:00.626505Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,'no' argument comes down to semantics. yes argument comes down to google? cnn? bbc?,increase,decrease,False,True,1410.25,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-28T16:07:04.458985Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"As much as I like seeing the polls showing good odds for Trump, I don¡¯t trust the Dominion voting machines and won¡¯t u",hold,decrease,False,True,3.29,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T13:45:29.087916Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"there is a separate protocol called uma. look up how uma voting works, its a bit complex. but basically people get rewar",flip,hold,False,True,27116.0855,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T22:41:57.028733Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Trump will attack Iran only after EU and Erdogan will tell him ""alright do it, we've tried everything"". He would be defy",decrease,increase,False,True,2222.2659,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T03:19:48.682065Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,what mexican officials as the government has collapsed,increase,hold,False,True,9732.6117,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-06T06:31:31.869631Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,OPEN THE MARKET FOR KAMALA .. how can they sell it ?!?!,decrease,flip,False,True,26.2797,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-04-12T14:20:40.145803Z,US military action against Iran before July?,A member of Iran¡¯s negotiating team has told the Iranian Tasnim news agency that the atmosphere of the indirect talks b,flip,flip,True,True,1107.8727,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T05:03:13.077061Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"f only one party (e.g. only Israel, or only Hezbollah) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated s",decrease,hold,False,True,348.4346,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527882,2025-03-15T21:41:55.809207Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?,"""Monday we will know more"" - like trump isnt informed by now, people are really this fucking gullible? xD Everybody that",increase,increase,True,True,553.68,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T09:46:49.502042Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Who is stupid enough to buy NO at this point and pay for Melania's sins????,hold,increase,False,True,6621.3341,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +512340,2024-12-07T09:41:09.963785Z,Will Nicolae Ciuc? win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?,if there was any chance for her to win the vote would go on! They realised she is hated for he lgbtq stance and will be ,hold,flip,False,True,22.987,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T08:07:05.709353Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"dumping will start soon , No whale will Dump again(70k) ,all No buyers be cautious",hold,decrease,False,True,0.7,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T09:35:56.829445Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"its kind of obvious really - IDF controlling Hader, which is outside even the buffer zone https://x.com/888farrell/statu",hold,increase,False,True,1796.65,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-26T10:59:47.924657Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"If u are so sure, go all in :P otherwise just STFU",hold,decrease,False,True,3499.09,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527882,2025-03-19T14:37:35.917959Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?,Dude just trades volatility. I would do it too if i had the time to watch this site 24/7 like that no lifer,hold,hold,True,True,45.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T15:31:12.645765Z,US military action against Iran before July?,guys this is the money for my rent can someone tell trump to atleast throw a rock at iran,increase,decrease,False,True,441.44,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T15:07:35.252182Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I still dont understand why democrats think all women are on their side,hold,hold,True,True,22.11,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T15:09:20.407548Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I've looked into this and believe it is fake news. The statement was actually made by an Israeli Druze. The Syrian Druze,increase,decrease,False,True,371.394,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-10T22:42:35.618698Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,LOL I can't believe the market dumped from 90c to 69c cuz of this bs speech,decrease,decrease,True,True,1304.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T01:55:04.139298Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Everybody knows the truth but it's fucked,increase,decrease,False,True,101.166,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T16:05:40.234148Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"lol , i dont like to speak alot . just watch",decrease,hold,False,True,134.9038,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554012,2025-06-21T16:55:01.349101Z,US military action against Iran by Sunday?,Ur an idiot and just pushing FUD because you own NO shares,decrease,hold,False,True,103.8162,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-31T14:13:26.371251Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,ynet: Hamas and Israel are likely to reach a deadlock once again.,increase,increase,True,True,3254.0448,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T20:19:46.646Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Been waiting for a dip to 50 cents....,increase,decrease,False,True,931.26,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T12:50:37.290148Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,do a search for Khan arnabah (control F someone had a link,increase,hold,False,True,322.8287,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T14:22:36.413145Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Donald trump - the chosen one !,increase,increase,True,True,9816.8311,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T17:02:54.484461Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,totally subjective and depends on if other states call it offensive or defensive.,increase,decrease,False,True,738.5973,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-12T14:41:42.820068Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,better to lose 66 bucks than 8.7k lmaoooo,increase,decrease,False,True,348.8449,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-27T17:41:15.237268Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"To give credit where credit is due, bringing Michelle Obama to a rally was at least one smart move by the Harris campaig",hold,decrease,False,True,3.29,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T21:56:08.424717Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,That's why the rule says in this case UN should call it,decrease,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T15:57:01.392052Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"No, No¡¯s aren¡¯t going to win",increase,increase,True,True,0.9017,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T07:19:57.117881Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,total of 11k of no as the price was lowering from 16c all the way to 1c. if u check activity you'll see who i mean immed,flip,increase,False,True,19.85,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:30:51.343397Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"""The exact new illegal content has not been verified in a public report, but the rules explicitly allow qualifying relea",decrease,flip,False,True,190.4677,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T13:45:41.220319Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,The logic of YES holders is: If I stand next to you and talk to you about peace while hitting you on the head with a sti,increase,increase,True,True,421.1689,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T11:40:27.622024Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"""military offensive"" means military action or? clearly there is one",increase,hold,False,True,456.71,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T21:43:19.335998Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Trump: ¡°My supporters are for me, my supporters are America first. My supporters don't want to see Iran have a nuclear ",flip,increase,False,True,2150.3357,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T17:04:08.003386Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,russia called ukraine invasion a defensive mission too buddy,flip,decrease,False,True,481.6418,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-17T00:20:25.885684Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"U.S. OFFICIAL STATED THAT THE MILITARY'S CURRENT STANCE IS STRICTLY DEFENSIVE, WITH NO INTENTION OF INITIATING OFFENSIVE",decrease,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-10T14:20:45.021459Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"No one will publish anything like that, at least not until Christmas. Who needs a philistine who spends all the holidays",decrease,increase,False,True,21.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T22:41:45.862491Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,You're yapping too much like a chihuahua,increase,hold,False,True,252.192,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T16:36:55.977463Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The people on this website truly dont know American culture,increase,hold,False,True,325.2949,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T17:27:05.106464Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Rules don't say anything about buffer zone, what Netanyahu says is irrelevant, they crossed with military forces, that i",hold,increase,False,True,597.55,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T23:10:40.988491Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,What evidence did I miss that changed this to leap to 100?,hold,decrease,False,True,55.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-14T19:16:47.620244Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Come on USA do something. Your Master has ordered you,decrease,hold,False,True,66.0709,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T23:14:50.926915Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,This is funny business i dont like this,flip,decrease,False,True,43.2,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T13:41:23.536267Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,It blows my mind you guys still put money into this.,flip,decrease,False,True,89844.3132,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T07:24:25.151024Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The Israeli-controlled part of Mount Hermon is administratively considered part of the Golan Heights but is not geograph,flip,hold,False,True,719.4765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T17:25:04.458114Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"it says ""military offensive"" not ""offensive invasion"". Wtf does that even mean. Learn to read",flip,decrease,False,True,806.6858,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T16:42:26.490669Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"If it was rigged, why would they spend any time spreading FUD?",flip,increase,False,True,280.675,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554695,2025-06-23T17:14:48.142495Z,Another US military action against Iran by Monday?,I really don't understand how can the price be so low yet,hold,increase,False,True,348.88,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +560539,2025-07-07T16:16:32.944809Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,https://x.com/yanircozin/status/1942255075050639774 JUST BOUGHT MORE YES. NOT 100% BUT CONSIDER THE REAL DIFFRANCES NOW ,decrease,increase,False,True,21.58,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-04-13T23:51:36.576078Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,Can you source the al arabiya and al jazeera reporting? I can't find it either.,decrease,decrease,True,True,1067.221,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T17:40:42.743747Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"53 % of Republicans oppose it, 23 % support it, and 24 % aren¡¯t sure. When Trump says ¡®within two weeks,¡¯ don¡¯t hold",flip,increase,False,True,19713.4866,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T15:41:31.058976Z,US military action against Iran before July?,wow good reason. Why didnt he from the very beginning then?,decrease,decrease,True,True,3929.38,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T12:27:05.752894Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,There has not been any since they started fighting October 2023,hold,hold,True,True,269.5587,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T14:16:57.986241Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Reports indicate an Iranian air defense system was destroyed in Ahvaz, Iran",increase,increase,True,True,2923.5683,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T18:21:15.455522Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"million dollar pnl, u are 4 markets old",flip,increase,False,True,1927.9263,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:55:07.434744Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Trump derangement is too high In here, price is not reliable indicator",decrease,decrease,True,True,275.6575,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T16:47:49.038877Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"""We control your airspace, demand your surrender and have your supreme leader targeted. But also don't attack our soldie",decrease,increase,False,True,994.9,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T22:12:42.267908Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"timeframe is irrelevant to the outcome of the bet, but then also you could've said that nicely but chose to be an animal",increase,hold,False,True,395.6567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-15T23:00:33.833758Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,AHAHAHHA CLOWN PUTIN IS TRIPPING AGAIN. NOTHING IS HAPPENING,decrease,increase,False,True,319.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T19:55:41.266026Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"lol Germany, UK and France is meeting with Iranian foreign minister on Friday in Geneva",flip,decrease,False,True,1749.7162,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T11:37:05.021655Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"everyone there goona be truly war here, Syria will not remain silent: https://x.com/joumana_gebara_/status/1868982595998",hold,increase,False,True,5338.6249,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T02:11:04.028007Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"If you have any social media, use it. We know the sites that made polymarket popular like zerohedge. If UMA is deaf they",hold,decrease,False,True,7849.9459,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-18T21:14:15.046918Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"According to some media, he is having a phone call rn with Putin and then will talk again with the others??",hold,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T05:08:43.954472Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Some reports say my sausage is in my sock if u know what I mean,decrease,hold,False,True,10.3,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T09:43:31.293475Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"too soon, resolution rejected and -$750",flip,decrease,False,True,0.6722,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-24T22:26:36.157862Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"That's because they pumped yes, prices will return to normal soon, wil be buying more asap",flip,increase,False,True,49.0884,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-08-12T23:36:43.477943Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,Are you jsjr ? Gassy boy is that you ?? ??????,increase,hold,False,True,113.2567,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T22:50:07.785541Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"people don¡¯t realize that the more pressure they try to exert, the less likely UMA will vote Yes, because it doesn¡¯t w",flip,increase,False,True,2946.6025,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-27T13:01:30.969883Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,A ceasefire that Hezbollah has confirmed?,increase,decrease,False,True,163.329,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T00:37:53.954052Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Official from the white house oval office: kash patel bets: no,increase,increase,True,True,29.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T12:30:41.547794Z,US military action against Iran before July?,The ability to strike from Guam is a known factor that is already priced into the strategic thinking of all players. It',decrease,increase,False,True,61560.8528,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-18T21:43:55.207288Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"News sources indicate that they can actually miss the deadline as a real possibility, consequences? Yes. But it doesn't ",decrease,increase,False,True,19.4,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T14:12:15.986404Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Follow them and buy yes why not,increase,flip,False,True,3.4,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-20T03:32:40.994968Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,"Iran still runs on Vista, Microsoft had it coming.",increase,hold,False,True,9.23,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-11T16:44:16.128012Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,You follow @Car?! Who said Assad remains president,decrease,flip,False,True,194.88,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T16:51:17.832631Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"""Don't hate the players, hate the game.""",decrease,hold,False,True,375.7733,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +551650,2025-06-20T18:54:14.123608Z,US military action against Iran before August?,They will never learn nothing ever happens (it will happen after July 4th),increase,hold,False,True,4.4264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-29T17:19:02.810392Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,"Open ur eyes, or something else",flip,decrease,False,True,37.4472,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T14:08:17.020747Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Trump has one Jew Daughter and three grandchildren:),decrease,hold,False,True,892.2508,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-18T21:30:52.657416Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Given the CNN article, it seems all but certain that we are getting a huge dump tomorrow",increase,increase,True,True,780.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T20:49:46.932313Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,The resolution was called too early = invalid,flip,decrease,False,True,63.4677,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T00:33:45.744868Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,''This is Golan bro'' XDD matter of time bro!,increase,increase,True,True,16122.5302,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T16:48:21.511155Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Iran is not giving up their nuclear program,decrease,hold,False,True,285.8639,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T10:38:34.965683Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,When you know what you¡¯re doing it don¡¯t take much risk to hit the grand slam. If it resolves as yes my 2 years of law,hold,increase,False,True,20.155,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T16:07:06.770846Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,maybe people are anticipating that and buying yes now?,flip,decrease,False,True,17693.81,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T17:05:40.957337Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"uhhh hello CFTC, I loaded my money into a offshore crypto gambling website, yes its banned in the US, u need to uhh send",flip,decrease,False,True,15.9263,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T02:23:08.624739Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"e mwe need to increase our voices everyday in X, discord and other platform, look all thoses NO holders here ,They know ",hold,increase,False,True,5338.6249,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T09:24:28.814316Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Cities and villages near border are closed for combat. I wonder why ;),flip,decrease,False,True,26926.1765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T23:00:57.626425Z,US military action against Iran before July?,as soon as stock market closes its over thx for the money yall,decrease,increase,False,True,113.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T17:59:32.565404Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Israeli isn't striking non-stop today to destroy as many targets before ceasefire starts. buy NO guys.,flip,flip,True,True,90.6082,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T21:52:13.799828Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,that's just the smell of money,decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T19:00:24.942514Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,denial is the first stage of grief,flip,decrease,False,True,642.0447,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T17:15:45.530628Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Lol, when he was elected that's one advantage I've found: poor people would be willing to fight in a potential war. It h",decrease,hold,False,True,68.2,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T21:36:02.571119Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,No bros did we just set our money on fire,decrease,decrease,True,True,40.23,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-20T15:15:26.367602Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,RIP for AlexParker. He probaly jumped from an building,increase,hold,False,True,188.35,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T11:35:56.853862Z,US military action against Iran before July?,new york was also saying that trump will never be president but here we are,decrease,hold,False,True,10888.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T13:58:56.264367Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"That's the goal of sending soldiers, but they didn't take the next step of actually controlling the villages administrat",decrease,decrease,True,True,53.4644,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-24T15:36:36.629037Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,also how are you of all people worried about that,hold,decrease,False,True,0.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T15:54:41.249778Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"You guys realize this market is going to be 60c Yes the night before July 1, and KnureKnume is still going to be saying ",hold,flip,False,True,1027.1,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-21T19:52:44.669597Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Free Monday, you let me do it again",increase,hold,False,True,30.7488,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-31T15:22:09.421093Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,One thing that may be positive is that they didn't say whether they approved or denied it in its actual form so we may s,hold,increase,False,True,72.0012,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T11:33:13.693891Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Is it strange that so many random users with rando pseudonym are buying between 300-400 Yes share constantly, like BOTS ",increase,decrease,False,True,51.49,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-30T07:00:23.409291Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,can yes holders explain why they havent taken their profits from selling yes at 98-99c and re investing a small percenta,flip,increase,False,True,14.93,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T06:05:50.034874Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,They identify as garbage now. So you are not far off.,decrease,hold,False,True,1734.2911,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T23:48:20.493747Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"He¡¯s just unfamiliar with the concept of being in profit, don¡¯t mind him",flip,hold,False,True,26926.1765,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:20:19.219317Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Keep buying no i will eat your money with pleasure ????,decrease,increase,False,True,515.57,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T15:57:58.068371Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"MochaMousse bought 6,273 Yes at 53.8c ($3,373)",flip,hold,False,True,103.0007,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:22:34.281035Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Thank yall for cheap entry losers,decrease,increase,False,True,515.57,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T02:11:40.200171Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"actually as a matter of fact yeah to uma whales raids dont count as an invasion, similar discussions and arguements happ",hold,hold,True,True,640.2936,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T22:32:45.716388Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Is it an inside joke to make claims that are counter to the shares we can see you are holding?,increase,decrease,False,True,2.0734,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T14:36:53.660168Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"it was not rejected, it was just not enough",flip,hold,False,True,27116.0855,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-05-10T16:40:03.105034Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,The battlefield dynamics currently favour NEITHER party of the war. It is likely that Putin will accept this proposal - ,hold,increase,False,True,91.3333,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-28T13:45:52.895304Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Can anyone point me to a source saying Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire? The only thing I see is an agreement with Lebano,flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T22:00:00.230507Z,US military action against Iran before July?,How is this an easy no? It wouldn't be the first time that the US and israel made a claim about weapons of mass destruct,increase,flip,False,True,195.4,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T03:35:01.557883Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,please explain what uma is bro we on the same side i dont undestand and what is this talk of rigging???,hold,hold,True,True,20.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T09:32:35.446304Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"The event hasn¡¯t even started to unfold. Realistically, nothing stops Israel from expanding it¡¯s buffer zone further. ",flip,increase,False,True,26926.1765,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-25T15:43:10.081375Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"he's saying those markets are falling, which is pricing this conflict coming to a close",decrease,flip,False,True,158.5768,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T14:15:15.181192Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"we've been here sharing ideas, news, sources, and explain all day, more and more people get to know how the fact is righ",hold,increase,False,True,5338.6249,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T01:00:09.322948Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"its a delusional belief that will slowly and painfully crumble over 2 weeks, or it can end right now",flip,decrease,False,True,831.6951,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-14T22:13:12.423267Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Not only Polymarket risks losing out here, but UMA also.",increase,decrease,False,True,931.39,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-19T10:17:20.184194Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Melania sold 22,592 No at 28.5 ($6,439)",flip,decrease,False,True,2329.7292,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T20:36:36.521995Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Holding no must be scary, you can go to sleep and just lose your entire bet...",decrease,decrease,True,True,9.515,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-04-30T21:34:05.472563Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,US and Ukraine reached a deal over access to Ukraine¡¯s natural resources - BBG Reporter on X.,hold,decrease,False,True,13258.9519,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519075,2025-05-17T19:55:03.221097Z,Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election?,don't stick your dick in crazy,hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T12:20:07.410209Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz announced on Monday that he had directed the army to establish a ""safe zone"" on th",hold,increase,False,True,456.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T23:16:35.624021Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,FELLOW NO SISTERS! DO NOT GIVE UP! BUY MORE NO AND KEEP DISPUTING AND UMA WILL HAVE TO LISTEN TO US!,flip,flip,True,True,1162.93,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T18:23:59.591313Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Both London and Paris conducting emergency security meetings right now.,decrease,increase,False,True,2150.3357,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T13:05:56.133196Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"IDF tanks still inside of Hader town today, according to Anadolu agency",increase,increase,True,True,697.9722,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-15T13:52:18.294185Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,"it should take at least couple of hours, if positive market will go up no matter what",flip,hold,False,True,61.8131,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T04:28:27.603681Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,the difference between 6 million and 600k,flip,hold,False,True,280.675,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T17:14:39.675251Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,I think the decision is already made. Th,decrease,decrease,True,True,39.429,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T13:51:29.742214Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Iran meeting now in Geneva. Yes is cheap. It¡¯s going up by 10-15 cents after unsuccessful talks. In an hour or two when,increase,increase,True,True,2923.5683,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T06:51:23.437864Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Guys is over, hermon mount is not part of gollan highs, it is south and israel did capture it and bibi did a picture the",increase,increase,True,True,315.5061,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-06-01T17:22:42.871784Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,Will there be an August market? Do they make one for each month??,increase,hold,False,True,3969.2471,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-16T22:54:14.309013Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"All of my capital is in BTC, ETH and alts rn, not selling to deploy here until I get positive PNL again.",hold,hold,True,True,400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T15:24:11.728647Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,At this point when you risk 100k to make 100$ that¡¯s for sure they is absolutely 0 justice in the votes. Otherwise they,hold,decrease,False,True,74.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T21:50:24.583302Z,US military action against Iran before July?,I think Israel already decided If Iran is allowed to have nuclear weapon.,increase,hold,False,True,249.74,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T23:49:49.015482Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"if yes holders really want to actually debate the facts, I will debate them in any format they want, join the UMA discor",flip,increase,False,True,2946.6025,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-15T14:01:51.071239Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,insider in Ukraine administration wrote that it has started,flip,increase,False,True,61.8131,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-22T00:28:52.100895Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Inshallah you retards all become rich,flip,hold,False,True,10000.001,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T18:43:21.454086Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israeli raids target military sites in Latakia city, coinciding with the Military Operations Administration's control of",hold,increase,False,True,456.71,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T11:47:34.193484Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Yes, doing that too. Also need to get crypto youtubers and others in the space to take a look http://youtube.com/post/Ug",decrease,hold,False,True,392.37,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T22:28:55.991355Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,this is 100% going to be yes just riding the waves of the NO holders giving me more options to earn money,flip,increase,False,True,66.4595,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T13:55:41.108776Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,READ the RULES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1,decrease,hold,False,True,6481.5575,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-21T21:16:37.820325Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Sounds like cope dude. They released the files. If you're going to argue on semantics regarding the ""illegal"" quote, the",increase,flip,False,True,0.0575,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T11:09:50.119731Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"I remember well when i voted for what trump said in his rally, even the whole term ""missile defense system"" has to be co",hold,decrease,False,True,5.24,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554010,2025-06-21T20:15:32.318292Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,Do they count time here by ET?,decrease,hold,False,True,30.8784,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-06-02T19:53:00.480576Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,Putin is not a saint but Zelensky isn't either. You need to recognize that and stop blindly supporting one over the othe,hold,decrease,False,True,91.3333,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-20T10:14:31.971593Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,You still have time to sell yes bros,hold,increase,False,True,50.8976,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-31T15:58:55.362887Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,Senior Israeli officials: Hamas has effectively delivered a negative response to the outline.,increase,increase,True,True,3673.7312,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T20:29:10.992571Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Epstein's files will be published tomorrow at 2:00 AM ET on 12.20,flip,flip,True,True,1500.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-12T19:30:46.010841Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Look what happened to btc reserve,increase,hold,False,True,9.4,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-15T17:35:08.357291Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,People say it starts today lol,flip,hold,False,True,61.8131,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T00:52:23.717857Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Unfortunatley whoever has the most money gets to decide, not the truth.",hold,hold,True,True,8.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-26T22:53:13.477703Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Can we stop screwing around and resolve this shit already,decrease,decrease,True,True,683.88,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-26T16:49:33.528027Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,"Responding to report Trump is set to announce new truce for around 70 days and release of 10 hostages, Israeli official ",hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T14:11:08.209733Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,don't let Kamel Grinch to steal our Christmas...,hold,increase,False,True,198.17,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-18T15:13:00.121606Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,sraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed the army to prepare for the continued occupation of Syria's buff,hold,increase,False,True,5338.6249,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-23T00:20:55.908215Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,It seems I wont be able to afford college anymore ;(,hold,decrease,False,True,69.36,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-17T12:39:37.609843Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"if it gets disputed, will it fall back? the fluctuations of this market",decrease,decrease,True,True,1896.64,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T20:10:04.190776Z,US military action against Iran before July?,He keeps pushing back the deadline for a decision yet yesholders think he will already strike on the weekend LMAOOO,flip,decrease,False,True,1168.5641,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-15T12:00:23.949242Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,This market will go up during 2 days,flip,increase,False,True,43.8131,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T12:43:54.507711Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Syrian crisis Israel draws furious reaction from Egypt after taking more Syrian territory Netanyahu has justified the in,increase,increase,True,True,213.79,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-09T21:01:09.837706Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,hermon is not golan heights its a ski resort now expended for my next vacatino,flip,hold,False,True,1156.8745,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-15T23:44:34.343649Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Why are you donating all your money??,flip,decrease,False,True,93.4448,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T20:39:08.033163Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,can someone tell me why this isn't like 95 yes?? israel is literally occupying RIGHT NOW syrian territory (not the golan,hold,increase,False,True,3.93,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-08T21:19:48.769045Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I¡¯m sure the occupying government loves the fact Israel bombed Damascus,decrease,hold,False,True,44.6621,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T21:47:44.864426Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Initial estimates indicate about 20 missiles were launched in the latest Iranian attack.,hold,hold,True,True,400.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-16T08:46:21.583477Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"the only hope 'no' has is that the vote gets rigged, which is an argument for 'yes'",hold,increase,False,True,1796.65,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T22:54:09.420007Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"no I didn't, I bought NO's and now I think it's a mistake",hold,decrease,False,True,1.49,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T14:36:28.705396Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Us will do little bombardment on iran so khameni also will have excuse you guys even can not see it ??,decrease,increase,False,True,785.82,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-11-29T08:45:47.491826Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,You know Yes has nothing when they try and move the goal posts. Did the rules say anything about the government of Leban,flip,increase,False,True,118.8851,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T22:30:58.727478Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Like, there are three conditions and they can only follow two at a time. Wow.",decrease,hold,False,True,2471.5232,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-04T22:59:46.258431Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,120 unique address w total contribution of almost 100k each. That must have been the votes of these yes holders but they,hold,decrease,False,True,5.54,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-13T10:00:09.101532Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I really dont care as much but that's pure propaganda. How is not the DMZ considered Syrian territory? Who's territory i,flip,decrease,False,True,226.8111,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T08:20:19.557517Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,And you¡¯re still keeping your position?,flip,decrease,False,True,26926.1765,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +558663,2025-07-04T12:07:42.406289Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,60 days ceasefire is absolutely guaranteed in the framework.,decrease,increase,False,True,568.7152,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528977,2025-05-31T18:33:49.092158Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,They will only accept a true temporary ceasefire or some sort of trick like January's deal that they can break promises ,decrease,increase,False,True,2482.4068,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T21:10:09.361273Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,What if there are no new files?....,decrease,decrease,True,True,40.0076,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T01:57:56.163873Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,market manipulation messes with UMA resolution,increase,decrease,False,True,456.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-20T15:04:01.427533Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,All the AIs said that there is no definite answer here.,increase,hold,False,True,177.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-12T11:59:50.982667Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,it cant resolve to no before 2025 so,increase,hold,False,True,456.71,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-20T23:09:44.462908Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Many documents were released with 100% redactions (blacked-out pages)THIS IS NOT A YES,increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +797327,2025-12-19T18:55:55.679972Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,I definitely heard this somewhere,hold,hold,True,True,34.087,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T15:46:07.938011Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Scammer, in every market you do the same",increase,decrease,False,True,2985.2068,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-20T22:24:29.164549Z,US military action against Iran before July?,"Remember what KnureKnume said: once my PnL is positive you HAVE to listen to me, we keep inching closer and his words wi",hold,hold,True,True,1027.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-17T17:00:25.060461Z,US military action against Iran before July?,THANK YOU FOR BOMBING IRAN PRESIDENT TRUMP,hold,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +537194,2025-05-28T03:29:42.493196Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,Keep your mouth shut. i hope you realize that u and your dirty girl spicy.caramel are turning the comments section into ,decrease,hold,False,True,153.9788,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-30T04:48:46.653465Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Total was stolen 19 million dollars,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-10T17:43:19.609912Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,so its possible to have more than 3 reviews ?,flip,hold,False,True,190.1175,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-11-04T11:05:59.567829Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"prissy fanboys of whore kamala haris, the great Trump is coming to destroy you, and deprive you of the last pennies you ",hold,increase,False,True,1.4481,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +507792,2024-12-02T20:12:30.079961Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"UMA did not budge to PM market clarification back then, why would they now. The people voting P2 lost alot of money. P2 ",increase,increase,True,True,210.2442,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539788,2025-05-24T20:01:56.932953Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,Obviously idiots like you told everyone 23 feb 2022 that there will be no war,increase,decrease,False,True,4828.434,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +506968,2024-12-15T17:23:06.329927Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Israel has definitely expanding the borders outside of golan heights, see the results here: https://syria.liveuamap.com/",flip,increase,False,True,294.7271,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +532741,2025-06-18T20:40:05.237958Z,US military action against Iran before July?,Can we get update from situation room already?,increase,hold,False,True,931.26,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +554012,2025-06-21T12:58:48.049397Z,US military action against Iran by Sunday?,Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour Hersh says Trump is going to strike Iran¡¯s Fordow nuclear site before the sto,decrease,increase,False,True,82.44,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +253591,2024-10-30T19:36:52.987719Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I win more than you if trump loses,increase,hold,False,True,991.45,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6d819c789b1f2056394522e5883120d0e39938c1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.5822142857142857,0.7449285714285716,0.16271428571428592,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?,14,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.446328125,0.39496093750000005,-0.05136718749999997,DOWN,0.2620063572060681,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,128,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.5443359374999999,0.446328125,-0.09800781249999985,DOWN,0.7311608572921511,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,128,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.24192307692307688,0.09948148148148146,-0.1424415954415954,DOWN,0.9933987992856369,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,52,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.6411351351351352,0.998,0.3568648648648648,UP,0.5829304468383323,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran by Sunday?,37,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.14402439024390246,0.17085365853658538,0.026829268292682923,UP,0.7376873940805619,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,41,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.32061538461538464,0.19976923076923078,-0.12084615384615385,DOWN,0.9478294548378959,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,65,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.5642012882447666,0.41471336553945254,-0.14948792270531402,DOWN,0.022851660018204708,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran before July?,621,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.18516129032258058,0.26435483870967735,0.07919354838709677,UP,0.9393909681114939,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran by Monday?,31,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.33566000000000007,0.24811999999999998,-0.08754000000000009,DOWN,0.7342289980869273,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?,25,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.3154444444444445,0.11329259259259261,-0.20215185185185192,DOWN,0.16844552541188124,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,270,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.15824324324324326,0.14662162162162162,-0.011621621621621642,DOWN,0.5228647993803276,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran by Sunday?,37,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.2979032258064516,0.2885483870967743,-0.009354838709677349,DOWN,0.7082184416869144,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran by Monday?,31,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.5242307692307692,0.42105769230769224,-0.10317307692307692,DOWN,0.7036054760865657,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,52,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.19246153846153843,0.22699999999999998,0.034538461538461546,UP,0.4888347103521274,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,65,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.3191319444444444,0.23666666666666666,-0.08246527777777776,DOWN,0.042677811931604664,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?,144,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.48277083333333337,0.6844791666666666,0.20170833333333327,UP,0.879015322636254,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?,24,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.42105769230769224,0.6873076923076924,0.26625000000000015,UP,0.38204737331188504,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,52,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.9016041666666667,0.9958620689655174,0.09425790229885078,UP,0.9549774621026168,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?,24,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.8368877551020408,0.9584183673469389,0.12153061224489803,UP,0.6078285047113201,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,784,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +20,0.034350000000000006,0.0224375,-0.011912500000000006,DOWN,0.003318390738074032,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +21,0.41942307692307695,0.24192307692307688,-0.17750000000000007,DOWN,0.9969677034078388,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,52,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +22,0.5868123993558776,0.7008784219001609,0.11406602254428333,UP,0.2837381535644204,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran before July?,621,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +23,0.28892361111111114,0.3191319444444444,0.03020833333333328,UP,0.6835558666062397,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?,144,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +24,0.11329259259259261,0.09049444444444445,-0.022798148148148165,DOWN,0.3721847111605201,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,270,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +25,0.3907291666666666,0.1970833333333333,-0.19364583333333332,DOWN,0.3034157472993677,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,48,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +26,0.43542857142857133,0.5822142857142857,0.14678571428571435,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?,14,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +27,0.6563440860215054,0.9069354838709678,0.2505913978494624,UP,0.318717432621395,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,372,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +28,0.6040024154589373,0.5642012882447666,-0.03980112721417073,DOWN,0.18109626838087867,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran before July?,621,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +29,0.13768292682926828,0.06770731707317074,-0.06997560975609754,DOWN,0.4487726281052063,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,41,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +30,0.6284719999999999,0.9995,0.37102800000000014,UP,0.11672701960353941,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran before July?,625,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +31,0.37125,0.30802083333333335,-0.06322916666666667,DOWN,0.7350289270776218,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,48,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +32,0.05712500000000001,0.04633333333333333,-0.010791666666666679,DOWN,0.9989232447974957,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?,12,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +33,0.104375,0.06073437499999999,-0.043640625,DOWN,0.3377411366113682,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,32,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +34,0.9858290816326531,0.9928801020408164,0.0070510204081633,UP,0.37393701625355624,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,784,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +35,0.5242013888888889,0.5894097222222222,0.06520833333333331,UP,0.6956464846586866,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?,144,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +36,0.11335416666666669,0.18953125,0.07617708333333333,UP,0.9800130014093145,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,48,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +37,0.5223026315789474,0.9995,0.47719736842105265,UP,0.4763241732411514,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran by Monday?,38,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +38,0.33790322580645177,0.5223026315789474,0.18439940577249564,UP,0.44584653253054257,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran by Monday?,31,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +39,0.4755859375,0.7213281249999999,0.24574218749999988,UP,0.2684063337781245,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,128,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1a3344f90bd7b529376ae381d8e836638bc84409 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.4437500000000001,0.3444602272727273,-0.0992897727272728,DOWN,0.3695478840758569,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,48,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.4631932773109244,0.42900568181818177,-0.03418759549274264,DOWN,0.7004213331619574,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,119,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.1604268292682927,0.16723958333333333,0.006812754065040644,UP,0.8846522117926064,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,82,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.41913043478260864,0.26937500000000003,-0.1497554347826086,DOWN,0.5165453333877844,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,23,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.05166666666666667,0.3662323717948718,0.3145657051282051,UP,0.9456409151598709,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,3,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.10333333333333333,0.16944444444444445,0.06611111111111112,UP,0.8094200087610948,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,12,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.6825,0.596701388888889,-0.08579861111111098,DOWN,0.9607519231802124,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.38727272727272727,0.4536041666666667,0.06633143939393943,UP,0.7392793852345358,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,11,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.4225,0.3596666666666667,-0.0628333333333333,DOWN,0.9901486275805529,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,2,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.5842115384615383,0.7909375000000001,0.2067259615384618,UP,0.7921666840953688,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?,52,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.32439285714285715,0.08925416666666666,-0.2351386904761905,DOWN,0.6346627828807342,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,140,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.5489999999999999,0.5667708333333333,0.017770833333333402,UP,0.1682493373563933,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,10,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.6090000000000001,0.5517708333333333,-0.057229166666666775,DOWN,0.10273144536646438,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,15,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.7229800000000001,0.8747916666666667,0.15181166666666668,UP,0.9119868830009386,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?,25,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.3462962962962963,0.25889254385964916,-0.08740375243664716,DOWN,0.2737479809961224,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?,81,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.42717391304347824,0.4387973484848484,0.011623435441370178,UP,0.17170010471351507,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,92,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.17840140845070424,0.036524999999999995,-0.14187640845070423,DOWN,0.6789291683023283,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?,71,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.1091153846153846,0.22612500000000002,0.11700961538461542,UP,0.36171201618787074,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?,13,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.07125000000000001,0.05537500000000001,-0.015875,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?,4,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.33328571428571435,0.25642045454545453,-0.07686525974025982,DOWN,0.6525863735376474,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,105,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +20,0.4573737373737374,0.10847560975609757,-0.34889812761763983,DOWN,0.964987304989466,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,198,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +21,0.24445205479452062,0.14735119047619047,-0.09710086431833015,DOWN,0.7842887790336773,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,73,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +22,0.28145945945945944,0.8645000000000002,0.5830405405405408,UP,0.5420914778454926,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran by Monday?,185,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +23,0.46615740740740746,0.3757043650793651,-0.09045304232804235,DOWN,0.7929340193524413,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,108,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +24,0.15071428571428575,0.10395833333333333,-0.04675595238095241,DOWN,0.980965227179821,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?,14,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +25,0.6531343283582088,0.47625,-0.17688432835820883,DOWN,0.22460431256909788,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,201,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +26,0.9194374999999999,0.9458541666666668,0.026416666666666866,UP,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +27,0.46620689655172426,0.7754791666666668,0.30927227011494257,UP,0.45438366111427986,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,29,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +28,0.409,0.4581770833333333,0.049177083333333316,UP,0.9792514000524564,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,5,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +29,0.308925,0.5440416666666666,0.23511666666666664,UP,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?,20,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +30,0.5356854838709676,0.6038541666666667,0.0681686827956991,UP,0.2517680520330351,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,124,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +31,0.40131578947368424,0.19994035785288272,-0.20137543162080151,DOWN,0.9466299923771843,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,57,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +32,0.37666666666666665,0.3,-0.07666666666666666,DOWN,0.9015379975874548,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +33,0.07529946524064171,0.0695,-0.005799465240641705,DOWN,0.822593883575252,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,187,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +34,0.27858695652173915,0.28964962121212123,0.011062664690382085,UP,0.8237533155979622,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,184,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +35,0.13266666666666668,0.0725,-0.06016666666666669,DOWN,0.6017489570140017,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,30,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +36,0.21970000000000003,0.8138749999999999,0.5941749999999999,UP,0.011119539737924445,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,US military action against Iran by Sunday?,250,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +37,0.5500420168067226,0.31732638888888887,-0.23271562791783373,DOWN,0.5738179205734256,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,119,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +38,0.16178571428571434,0.10273809523809523,-0.05904761904761911,DOWN,0.42761172006361364,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,14,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +39,0.6966666666666667,0.4365277777777778,-0.26013888888888886,DOWN,0.8421552308093085,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?,6,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..78de524a83038ac2e53e12dc31c8d6ddf0434800 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,119 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +514253,2024-12-03T19:10:57.222289Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"bought this at 8c, just wish i bought more sadge",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-18T06:56:41.411249Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,better sell those shares while there is liquidity,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:27:13.029647Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Tripled my 50 bucks last week and lost it all today... Anyone got some spare change please;(,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-13T06:33:38.754884Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Whats your guess for the grand finale? When there was exactly a day and 12 hours left I added 150 to his current count s,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-19T21:05:09.641122Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"this basically gambling, he can start posting in the next hour 30 posts and we can't predict that",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T09:46:50.651776Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"look at the chart, after a day with high tweets it always goes down. should be %60-65 under 300",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T15:06:28.412242Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Eh, the only reason why I sold is because I genuinely got bored of gambling and Idrc about losing $15 when my university",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-25T17:55:09.220557Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,people are jumping from the 475 bracket to the 500 bracket. my advice buy 525.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T20:17:05.857841Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"You don't even need much anymore. His peak time is morning and night, morning was solid and night will be good too. Prob",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T11:57:55.786215Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"should i sell my higher brackets and put the money into the other brackets or just hold until market ends, i spent $100 ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-12T23:13:36.837714Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"He will stop at 696, i have played these games before",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T17:15:27.666377Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Snap how do you lose $70k on this app, you must be a millionaire",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T18:14:19.849301Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"idk im not saying he will, but he aint posted much today tbh",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T12:11:26.790656Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,- a man who put in $150 and lost $120,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T00:32:14.016645Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i started with$30 and its been about 4 weeks and im up almost 600,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T08:50:36.062861Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"He's on ketamine xD haha, that mean he dont sleep today, its a good sign of sleeping early tomorrow, just dont know how ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-14T18:33:56.094491Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"actually could've sold more to break even, but this is fine. Still a $40 profit in case the unthinkable happens.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T10:50:32.170088Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Its a 50/50 at this point. Elons tweet habbits depend on how much time he has sitting around waiting for something.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:44:52.206504Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i will be enjoying seeing your PnL going even further down,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T12:50:13.500281Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,and you hate yourself even more when it goes up after you sell,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T09:15:26.240874Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"i bought them very cheap. I don't care. But this MF, was commenting yesterday that elon won't do over 250 posts, like he",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-13T12:22:21.662859Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,i like touching (real) smurfs with willsmith faces,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T16:10:42.085459Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"You someone PLEASE send me atleast 5 Bucks, I just lost it all with Elon :( Worst day of my life",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T05:05:30.354071Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,fkin misclick i thought i bought 300-324,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T12:17:21.871627Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,you had really diamond balls here to hold that position through,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-24T14:47:41.757681Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,elon tbh ily pleas tweet ten more and stop and we all happy,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-02-28T18:25:53.412013Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,damnnn can i get 20 bucks hahha,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T16:04:41.145667Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"shuu, pnl went from $1000 to $52",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T10:36:13.326389Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"-300 dollars, i don¡¯t talk to people like you, sorry",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T20:56:03.982546Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,lil bro u got $50 u aint makin it out the hood regardless,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T16:23:56.997874Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,He is preparing 28 tweets spam to troll us all,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T07:09:53.106266Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"no way, he just put 2.5 bucks on 1000+",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-25T16:40:28.988364Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"1 day now and 24 posts, seems like he's not taking his pills anymore",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-12T03:27:44.116769Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Elon Musk has passed out from jerkmate ranked (Elite rank),False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T16:07:42.507144Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,RELEASE THAT U450 NO MAN I WANT MY 1 DOLLAR,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T04:15:41.717977Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"i bought because of you, thank you",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T11:55:01.408547Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Guys take your profits this man is capable of not tweeting randomly till the end of the market, don¡¯t risk it",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T09:37:03.025575Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"my crystal globe is telling me, that with all the drama that is now on X. Even if wakes in 6 hours, he will do more than",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T14:46:12.201375Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,ok thanks i canceled it was at 121 when i sold but now it 80 is that normal?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-21T19:28:50.044188Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,im the real one. the others are just fans of mine.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T11:25:24.563503Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Please send me a $1 tip. I wish you a beautiful life, a groom every day and a bride every night.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T18:25:30.414918Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,its over. just sell before it gets any worse,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T22:35:51.666172Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"your math is way off, he needs 2.7 posts per hour or 65.5 per day, which is kinda average.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T00:14:10.679045Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,first week into the challenge from $11 to $11k so far we are ahead of pace,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-03T14:58:05.006256Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"i bought less than 450 and 450+ cause i wanted a lil free money haha, but tbh im surprised ppl think its going to be les",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:19:56.563475Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"He's just not going to sleep. It's over. Looks like I'm giving out handjobs to get back this $1,200.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T22:59:03.296231Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Yeah, i mean hedging hahah. Have you ever lost when hedging your bets?",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:19:56.563475Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"He's just not going to sleep. It's over. Looks like I'm giving out handjobs to get back this $1,200.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-08T18:24:26.199158Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,he is in washington dc since may 5 probably he is working very hard for cut the balance,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T17:46:26.590163Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Your loss of $77 could have bought you starbucks coffee for a month,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T00:48:27.928782Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I don't think you need that much enthusiasm for $8,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-01-31T22:13:47.346777Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"Does anyone else have problem with the ""+5, +20 and +100"" buttons when placing limit buy on mobile?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-19T19:23:00.232177Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,What if someone runs him over when he's crossing the road?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T11:36:41.006944Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"@Therealsmurf, losing $2.2k on a single market is the most retarded thing you said? DDD",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T14:14:43.321192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,but if i have 100 bucks and i bet on 5 i just lose money dafk or i need to join maybe 5% or less,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-02T17:18:14.010183Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,This guy is crazy and this weeks market is cooked,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T11:14:37.973724Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Given we're at 03:13 AM PST on January 30, 2025, and until Friday, 12 PM EST (which translates to 9 AM PST on January 31",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T21:34:14.657095Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Thank god i bought these worthless upper brackets an hour ago,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T17:09:26.935309Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Because I bought it yesterday before his spam,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T15:01:00.562619Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Update us when your PL is above 40$,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T22:54:11.617679Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he's up $5.. the player is Rollin Deep,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T10:18:50.583977Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i have won 2 of the previous weeks, turning $128 to $445,",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T00:14:10.679045Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,first week into the challenge from $11 to $11k so far we are ahead of pace,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-19T10:40:37.874449Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"i didn't choose anything expect for N on 800+, which is very unlikely at this point. I just swing traded taking some $10",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T19:26:33.376622Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i was not aware of that, i joined last week. it can be big deal for short term trades because it's messing with prices, ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T21:19:02.036296Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"ok, folks, good night and good luck! See you tomorrow, enough for today.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-27T18:31:04.580466Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"need someone to lend me a dollar to recover my money, i dont like wish to beg or smt but i really need it any help would",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T22:02:02.323173Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,you will buy ($3 worth probably),True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-03T15:21:34.787826Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"how many times has he passed the 450+ ? and knowing hes more busy now its looks like a No for me, im glad i have sold th",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T06:31:28.159714Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Hey new to polymarket here. where do I see the tweet counter people are talking about?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T14:44:20.143823Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"LOOKS LIKE I WILL GET MY $3, OR TOO EARLY TO CLAIM THAT?",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-13T09:28:49.478971Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Crusty krab pizza is the pizza for you and me,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-01T08:47:02.128894Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"The other Benny's are copying me because they are proud of me, unlike my parents.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T09:02:32.367218Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,if you bet on every number xdddd,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-02T19:28:28.457289Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, only the future can tell the truth",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T13:52:17.764937Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,i'll buy 100k no at 5cent if you think its free money,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T13:37:05.874169Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"if I entered for less than 250 to ""buy"" it means that it will be less than 250?",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T02:49:59.609872Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,How are Markets Disputed? Anyone can dispute a proposed market resolution if they feel it was proposed in error. Once a,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T16:55:04.146625Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,has been a pleasure to wake up and waste 24 dollars like this,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-12T20:38:11.661629Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,atleast hit 720 before he goes to sleep today,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T07:06:30.150807Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"You've lost over $1,600. Yiur gut is not a good guide. LMAO.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T09:18:12.256151Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"what are you laughing at loser, you gonna lose today again retard",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T04:15:41.717977Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"i bought because of you, thank you",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-02-28T17:44:58.708464Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,1000+ posts this week. Believe in something,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T03:11:59.796387Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,This man is stuck in a prison he controls,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-14T15:07:49.221943Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,benny predicted all of this from the start,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-13T17:46:58.769043Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,finally done with this shit. no anymore on this guy,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:58:57.001632Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,That¡¯s a fun bet with 8 dollars brother chill down it¡¯s a loss but would be funny if they win,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T07:09:53.106266Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"no way, he just put 2.5 bucks on 1000+",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T14:44:44.231166Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,If I Look at your p&l I Skip your advice,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T10:56:27.304326Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you think i spend 50 dollars on a lunch? thats a week of groceries for me big bruh,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T11:12:04.440188Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"14 hours ago i bought 150-174 at 13c, now it's at 46c. ""you're retarded"" they said. told you guys.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T14:14:43.321192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,but if i have 100 bucks and i bet on 5 i just lose money dafk or i need to join maybe 5% or less,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T22:54:11.617679Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he's up $5.. the player is Rollin Deep,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-14T15:45:12.820968Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,lol because everyone wants bet for 7x24,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T14:49:08.304805Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,I would agree that you have a chance. It's very 50-50 right now,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:01:59.555762Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"i went for 2 hours thinking its settled now, he cant tweet above 475 with his pace but this retard neevr fails to lose m",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T08:15:10.146344Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"funny how you did the exact thing, panic sold",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T17:59:24.175803Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Nothing is for sure in this market, could well be that he's offline for a whole day or the opposite",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T17:43:27.066978Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Has there ever been a day when Elon did not tweet at all?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T16:09:20.902709Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,not far from market median around 510-520,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T13:44:48.370887Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,yo im 5 bucks profit holy this is insake #nomorebroke,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T13:43:35.178909Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Just because weekend was bad, does not mean the entire week will be",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:49:01.452594Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"oh, the probability is ~90.7% now... but i guess he will still post more in recent 1~2 hours ...",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T12:43:01.937384Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Are you new to this market, the answer is yes",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T02:41:09.269158Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"im at a profit at every bracket, just around $500 less with 300-324. i find it's price a little too expensive rn but mig",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T01:24:58.443648Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"musk, go bed, you need a good reset",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-28T15:59:56.425383Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"i mean call your mom, tell her you love her bro, before it's too late. Otherwise, suddenly your PNL will fall below $20 ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T19:05:56.320142Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Sell my 600-649 now I am sure it will be 550-599,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..15d5133f9d5f4d5261f7dfdbb3b325e49223e7b7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,119 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +523033,2025-02-13T06:33:38.754884Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Whats your guess for the grand finale? When there was exactly a day and 12 hours left I added 150 to his current count s,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T19:10:57.222289Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"bought this at 8c, just wish i bought more sadge",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:27:13.029647Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Tripled my 50 bucks last week and lost it all today... Anyone got some spare change please;(,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T15:06:28.412242Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Eh, the only reason why I sold is because I genuinely got bored of gambling and Idrc about losing $15 when my university",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T09:46:50.651776Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"look at the chart, after a day with high tweets it always goes down. should be %60-65 under 300",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-19T21:05:09.641122Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"this basically gambling, he can start posting in the next hour 30 posts and we can't predict that",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-18T06:56:41.411249Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,better sell those shares while there is liquidity,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-25T17:55:09.220557Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,people are jumping from the 475 bracket to the 500 bracket. my advice buy 525.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T11:57:55.786215Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"should i sell my higher brackets and put the money into the other brackets or just hold until market ends, i spent $100 ",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T20:17:05.857841Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"You don't even need much anymore. His peak time is morning and night, morning was solid and night will be good too. Prob",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-12T23:13:36.837714Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"He will stop at 696, i have played these games before",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T17:15:27.666377Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Snap how do you lose $70k on this app, you must be a millionaire",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T12:11:26.790656Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,- a man who put in $150 and lost $120,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T18:14:19.849301Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"idk im not saying he will, but he aint posted much today tbh",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T10:50:32.170088Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Its a 50/50 at this point. Elons tweet habbits depend on how much time he has sitting around waiting for something.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T00:32:14.016645Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i started with$30 and its been about 4 weeks and im up almost 600,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T08:50:36.062861Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"He's on ketamine xD haha, that mean he dont sleep today, its a good sign of sleeping early tomorrow, just dont know how ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T09:15:26.240874Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"i bought them very cheap. I don't care. But this MF, was commenting yesterday that elon won't do over 250 posts, like he",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T12:50:13.500281Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,and you hate yourself even more when it goes up after you sell,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-14T18:33:56.094491Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"actually could've sold more to break even, but this is fine. Still a $40 profit in case the unthinkable happens.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T16:10:42.085459Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"You someone PLEASE send me atleast 5 Bucks, I just lost it all with Elon :( Worst day of my life",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-13T12:22:21.662859Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,i like touching (real) smurfs with willsmith faces,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:44:52.206504Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i will be enjoying seeing your PnL going even further down,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T05:05:30.354071Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,fkin misclick i thought i bought 300-324,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T12:17:21.871627Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,you had really diamond balls here to hold that position through,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-24T14:47:41.757681Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,elon tbh ily pleas tweet ten more and stop and we all happy,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-02-28T18:25:53.412013Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,damnnn can i get 20 bucks hahha,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T16:04:41.145667Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"shuu, pnl went from $1000 to $52",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T16:23:56.997874Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,He is preparing 28 tweets spam to troll us all,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T20:56:03.982546Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,lil bro u got $50 u aint makin it out the hood regardless,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T07:09:53.106266Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"no way, he just put 2.5 bucks on 1000+",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T10:36:13.326389Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"-300 dollars, i don¡¯t talk to people like you, sorry",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T04:15:41.717977Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"i bought because of you, thank you",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T16:07:42.507144Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,RELEASE THAT U450 NO MAN I WANT MY 1 DOLLAR,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-12T03:27:44.116769Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Elon Musk has passed out from jerkmate ranked (Elite rank),False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-25T16:40:28.988364Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"1 day now and 24 posts, seems like he's not taking his pills anymore",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T09:37:03.025575Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"my crystal globe is telling me, that with all the drama that is now on X. Even if wakes in 6 hours, he will do more than",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T11:55:01.408547Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Guys take your profits this man is capable of not tweeting randomly till the end of the market, don¡¯t risk it",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T00:14:10.679045Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,first week into the challenge from $11 to $11k so far we are ahead of pace,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T14:46:12.201375Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,ok thanks i canceled it was at 121 when i sold but now it 80 is that normal?,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-21T19:28:50.044188Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,im the real one. the others are just fans of mine.,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T11:25:24.563503Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Please send me a $1 tip. I wish you a beautiful life, a groom every day and a bride every night.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-03T14:58:05.006256Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"i bought less than 450 and 450+ cause i wanted a lil free money haha, but tbh im surprised ppl think its going to be les",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T18:25:30.414918Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,its over. just sell before it gets any worse,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:19:56.563475Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"He's just not going to sleep. It's over. Looks like I'm giving out handjobs to get back this $1,200.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:19:56.563475Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"He's just not going to sleep. It's over. Looks like I'm giving out handjobs to get back this $1,200.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T22:35:51.666172Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"your math is way off, he needs 2.7 posts per hour or 65.5 per day, which is kinda average.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T22:59:03.296231Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Yeah, i mean hedging hahah. Have you ever lost when hedging your bets?",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T17:46:26.590163Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Your loss of $77 could have bought you starbucks coffee for a month,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-08T18:24:26.199158Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,he is in washington dc since may 5 probably he is working very hard for cut the balance,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T00:48:27.928782Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I don't think you need that much enthusiasm for $8,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-01-31T22:13:47.346777Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"Does anyone else have problem with the ""+5, +20 and +100"" buttons when placing limit buy on mobile?",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-19T19:23:00.232177Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,What if someone runs him over when he's crossing the road?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T21:34:14.657095Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Thank god i bought these worthless upper brackets an hour ago,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T11:14:37.973724Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Given we're at 03:13 AM PST on January 30, 2025, and until Friday, 12 PM EST (which translates to 9 AM PST on January 31",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-02T17:18:14.010183Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,This guy is crazy and this weeks market is cooked,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T11:36:41.006944Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"@Therealsmurf, losing $2.2k on a single market is the most retarded thing you said? DDD",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T15:01:00.562619Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Update us when your PL is above 40$,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T10:18:50.583977Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i have won 2 of the previous weeks, turning $128 to $445,",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T22:54:11.617679Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he's up $5.. the player is Rollin Deep,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T14:14:43.321192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,but if i have 100 bucks and i bet on 5 i just lose money dafk or i need to join maybe 5% or less,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T00:14:10.679045Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,first week into the challenge from $11 to $11k so far we are ahead of pace,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-19T10:40:37.874449Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"i didn't choose anything expect for N on 800+, which is very unlikely at this point. I just swing traded taking some $10",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T21:19:02.036296Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"ok, folks, good night and good luck! See you tomorrow, enough for today.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-27T18:31:04.580466Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"need someone to lend me a dollar to recover my money, i dont like wish to beg or smt but i really need it any help would",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-03T15:21:34.787826Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"how many times has he passed the 450+ ? and knowing hes more busy now its looks like a No for me, im glad i have sold th",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T17:09:26.935309Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Because I bought it yesterday before his spam,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T19:26:33.376622Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i was not aware of that, i joined last week. it can be big deal for short term trades because it's messing with prices, ",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T22:02:02.323173Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,you will buy ($3 worth probably),True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-13T09:28:49.478971Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Crusty krab pizza is the pizza for you and me,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T06:31:28.159714Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Hey new to polymarket here. where do I see the tweet counter people are talking about?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T14:44:20.143823Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"LOOKS LIKE I WILL GET MY $3, OR TOO EARLY TO CLAIM THAT?",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T13:52:17.764937Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,i'll buy 100k no at 5cent if you think its free money,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-01T08:47:02.128894Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"The other Benny's are copying me because they are proud of me, unlike my parents.",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-02T19:28:28.457289Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, only the future can tell the truth",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-12T20:38:11.661629Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,atleast hit 720 before he goes to sleep today,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T16:55:04.146625Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,has been a pleasure to wake up and waste 24 dollars like this,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T02:49:59.609872Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,How are Markets Disputed? Anyone can dispute a proposed market resolution if they feel it was proposed in error. Once a,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T07:06:30.150807Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"You've lost over $1,600. Yiur gut is not a good guide. LMAO.",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T09:18:12.256151Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"what are you laughing at loser, you gonna lose today again retard",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T04:15:41.717977Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"i bought because of you, thank you",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T09:02:32.367218Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,if you bet on every number xdddd,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-02-28T17:44:58.708464Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,1000+ posts this week. Believe in something,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-13T17:46:58.769043Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,finally done with this shit. no anymore on this guy,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T03:11:59.796387Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,This man is stuck in a prison he controls,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:58:57.001632Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,That¡¯s a fun bet with 8 dollars brother chill down it¡¯s a loss but would be funny if they win,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T07:09:53.106266Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"no way, he just put 2.5 bucks on 1000+",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-14T15:07:49.221943Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,benny predicted all of this from the start,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T14:44:44.231166Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,If I Look at your p&l I Skip your advice,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T13:37:05.874169Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"if I entered for less than 250 to ""buy"" it means that it will be less than 250?",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T10:56:27.304326Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you think i spend 50 dollars on a lunch? thats a week of groceries for me big bruh,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T14:14:43.321192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,but if i have 100 bucks and i bet on 5 i just lose money dafk or i need to join maybe 5% or less,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T22:54:11.617679Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he's up $5.. the player is Rollin Deep,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T11:12:04.440188Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"14 hours ago i bought 150-174 at 13c, now it's at 46c. ""you're retarded"" they said. told you guys.",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T08:15:10.146344Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"funny how you did the exact thing, panic sold",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-14T15:45:12.820968Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,lol because everyone wants bet for 7x24,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:01:59.555762Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"i went for 2 hours thinking its settled now, he cant tweet above 475 with his pace but this retard neevr fails to lose m",False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T17:59:24.175803Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Nothing is for sure in this market, could well be that he's offline for a whole day or the opposite",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T14:49:08.304805Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,I would agree that you have a chance. It's very 50-50 right now,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T17:43:27.066978Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Has there ever been a day when Elon did not tweet at all?,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:49:01.452594Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"oh, the probability is ~90.7% now... but i guess he will still post more in recent 1~2 hours ...",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T13:43:35.178909Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Just because weekend was bad, does not mean the entire week will be",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T02:41:09.269158Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"im at a profit at every bracket, just around $500 less with 300-324. i find it's price a little too expensive rn but mig",True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T16:09:20.902709Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,not far from market median around 510-520,False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T12:43:01.937384Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Are you new to this market, the answer is yes",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-28T15:59:56.425383Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"i mean call your mom, tell her you love her bro, before it's too late. Otherwise, suddenly your PNL will fall below $20 ",True,False,False,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T01:24:58.443648Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"musk, go bed, you need a good reset",False,False,True,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T13:44:48.370887Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,yo im 5 bucks profit holy this is insake #nomorebroke,True,True,True,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T19:05:56.320142Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Sell my 600-649 now I am sure it will be 550-599,False,True,False,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..925367ece34feb224db8a2a5ae914de3d112554a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,180 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +528110,2025-03-19T13:44:48.370887Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,yo im 5 bucks profit holy this is insake #nomorebroke,YES,YES,True,True,75.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T07:09:53.106266Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"no way, he just put 2.5 bucks on 1000+",YES,NO,False,True,15.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:19:56.563475Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"He's just not going to sleep. It's over. Looks like I'm giving out handjobs to get back this $1,200.",YES,YES,True,True,1162.0645,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T09:02:32.367218Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,if you bet on every number xdddd,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T19:26:33.376622Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i was not aware of that, i joined last week. it can be big deal for short term trades because it's messing with prices, ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T22:59:03.296231Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Yeah, i mean hedging hahah. Have you ever lost when hedging your bets?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T19:11:31.656421Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,his last answer was 5 or 6 h ago right,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-19T19:23:00.232177Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,What if someone runs him over when he's crossing the road?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-02-28T18:25:53.412013Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,damnnn can i get 20 bucks hahha,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T18:26:40.568309Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,He can have in a day 200 posts.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-12T23:13:36.837714Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"He will stop at 696, i have played these games before",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T16:07:42.507144Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,RELEASE THAT U450 NO MAN I WANT MY 1 DOLLAR,NO,NO,True,True,149.87,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T19:10:57.222289Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"bought this at 8c, just wish i bought more sadge",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T17:43:27.066978Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Has there ever been a day when Elon did not tweet at all?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T14:14:43.321192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,but if i have 100 bucks and i bet on 5 i just lose money dafk or i need to join maybe 5% or less,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,75.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:01:59.555762Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"i went for 2 hours thinking its settled now, he cant tweet above 475 with his pace but this retard neevr fails to lose m",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T13:06:11.724415Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Because it was canceled xd, today it's likely too",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T09:37:03.025575Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"my crystal globe is telling me, that with all the drama that is now on X. Even if wakes in 6 hours, he will do more than",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T22:35:51.666172Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"your math is way off, he needs 2.7 posts per hour or 65.5 per day, which is kinda average.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-08T19:57:06.484908Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,True but everyone I respect in this market like you didn't do well last week,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T05:41:06.894897Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Don¡¯t be greedy your up $400 already, that¡¯s an easy sell anyday",YES,NO,False,True,1.9749,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T11:01:46.402578Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,where are you and im sooo sorryyyy,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-25T10:16:43.788911Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Loading some higher brackets for the morning spam,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T09:15:26.240874Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"i bought them very cheap. I don't care. But this MF, was commenting yesterday that elon won't do over 250 posts, like he",YES,NO,False,True,258.6,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-11T14:56:27.038937Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,elon is no longer tweeting because he is dedicating himself to cleaning the house and preparing food for his 12 children,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-01T10:11:16.800586Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,This guy doesn't seem to be active today.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T08:41:45.789001Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,"we don't know , we can just wait and see",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T21:34:14.657095Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Thank god i bought these worthless upper brackets an hour ago,YES,NO,False,True,57.4192,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T09:46:50.651776Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"look at the chart, after a day with high tweets it always goes down. should be %60-65 under 300",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-13T17:46:58.769043Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,finally done with this shit. no anymore on this guy,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-13T12:22:21.662859Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,i like touching (real) smurfs with willsmith faces,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-12T20:38:11.661629Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,atleast hit 720 before he goes to sleep today,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-14T20:09:14.567246Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,what is the best position atm iyo?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,YES,YES,True,True,4.0583,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T00:14:10.679045Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,first week into the challenge from $11 to $11k so far we are ahead of pace,YES,NO,False,True,26.9492,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T13:52:17.764937Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,i'll buy 100k no at 5cent if you think its free money,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T13:37:05.874169Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"if I entered for less than 250 to ""buy"" it means that it will be less than 250?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,41.86,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-19T18:15:01.926738Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,I assume he is sleeping because he slept for 3h,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T22:04:02.782623Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I make a lot by these positions hahah ??,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-03T14:58:05.006256Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"i bought less than 450 and 450+ cause i wanted a lil free money haha, but tbh im surprised ppl think its going to be les",YES,YES,True,True,1.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",NO,NO,True,True,1567.0043,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-18T22:23:59.821873Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Unless your early buy was shit !!,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T22:02:02.323173Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,you will buy ($3 worth probably),NO,NO,True,True,940.79,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-27T18:31:04.580466Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"need someone to lend me a dollar to recover my money, i dont like wish to beg or smt but i really need it any help would",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T16:10:42.085459Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"You someone PLEASE send me atleast 5 Bucks, I just lost it all with Elon :( Worst day of my life",YES,NO,False,True,51.52,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-25T17:55:09.220557Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,people are jumping from the 475 bracket to the 500 bracket. my advice buy 525.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-08T18:24:26.199158Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,he is in washington dc since may 5 probably he is working very hard for cut the balance,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-02T12:08:13.252922Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,frfr some might even call it a premium ngl,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T14:44:44.231166Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,If I Look at your p&l I Skip your advice,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T00:28:46.014914Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Even I say he will pass 450 in the first 6 days :)),NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T13:58:20.073217Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Elon just woke up..he is preparing his finger for tweets..hold..,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T22:54:11.617679Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he's up $5.. the player is Rollin Deep,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,20.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T08:26:51.463896Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"and just remember that 9,5 hours ago the pace was 347. Now it's 382. So yes, we just wait and see :)",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-28T15:59:56.425383Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"i mean call your mom, tell her you love her bro, before it's too late. Otherwise, suddenly your PNL will fall below $20 ",NO,NO,True,True,20.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T09:01:24.071156Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"I saw your previous reply and you deleted the comment, hilarious. The tracker is made by Polymarket, good luck with your",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T13:43:35.178909Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Just because weekend was bad, does not mean the entire week will be",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:44:52.206504Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i will be enjoying seeing your PnL going even further down,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T18:14:19.849301Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"idk im not saying he will, but he aint posted much today tbh",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-03T10:58:37.876877Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,He has to slow down what goes uo must come down,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T01:29:10.046499Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"Sorry for the lost bro, you bet true to your name, you did good",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T05:37:57.972316Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,he gonna spam rocket tweet so much that his hand melt into the screen,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T14:44:20.143823Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"LOOKS LIKE I WILL GET MY $3, OR TOO EARLY TO CLAIM THAT?",YES,YES,True,True,1.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T10:36:13.326389Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"-300 dollars, i don¡¯t talk to people like you, sorry",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,36.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T04:15:41.717977Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"i bought because of you, thank you",YES,YES,True,True,128.4073,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,YES,YES,True,True,4.0583,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T18:51:43.594986Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,new brackets are stealing the money,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T10:50:32.170088Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Its a 50/50 at this point. Elons tweet habbits depend on how much time he has sitting around waiting for something.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T06:31:28.159714Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Hey new to polymarket here. where do I see the tweet counter people are talking about?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T17:46:26.590163Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Your loss of $77 could have bought you starbucks coffee for a month,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.03,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-23T18:32:01.899085Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,650+ is just a matter of days. told you guys,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:27:13.029647Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Tripled my 50 bucks last week and lost it all today... Anyone got some spare change please;(,YES,NO,False,True,44.5218,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T12:11:26.790656Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,- a man who put in $150 and lost $120,YES,NO,False,True,72.3597,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-02T06:31:41.865429Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,dw guys its nearly his bed time he finna go sleep soon,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:58:57.001632Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,That¡¯s a fun bet with 8 dollars brother chill down it¡¯s a loss but would be funny if they win,YES,NO,False,True,550.1846,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T09:18:12.256151Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"what are you laughing at loser, you gonna lose today again retard",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T08:57:02.367499Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"Elon woke up for some reason, hmm",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-29T03:29:20.492865Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"How do people propose so quickly, is there a bot that does it?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-11-30T15:33:46.109624Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,I also not sure I wanna take the risk of getting close to market end as I lost once like 600 because he tweeted one more,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T12:17:21.871627Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,you had really diamond balls here to hold that position through,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T02:41:09.269158Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"im at a profit at every bracket, just around $500 less with 300-324. i find it's price a little too expensive rn but mig",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,371.168,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-14T18:33:56.094491Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"actually could've sold more to break even, but this is fine. Still a $40 profit in case the unthinkable happens.",YES,NO,False,True,121.25,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-01-31T22:13:47.346777Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"Does anyone else have problem with the ""+5, +20 and +100"" buttons when placing limit buy on mobile?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-14T20:09:14.567246Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,what is the best position atm iyo?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T21:19:02.036296Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"ok, folks, good night and good luck! See you tomorrow, enough for today.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T12:50:13.500281Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,and you hate yourself even more when it goes up after you sell,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:19:56.563475Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"He's just not going to sleep. It's over. Looks like I'm giving out handjobs to get back this $1,200.",YES,YES,True,True,1162.0645,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T09:25:49.270942Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,he will wake up in 4 hours and 10 minutes. do at least 30 tweets in 1h and 30min. a little break then another spam. he w,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T11:25:24.563503Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Please send me a $1 tip. I wish you a beautiful life, a groom every day and a bride every night.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,23.29,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T00:14:10.679045Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,first week into the challenge from $11 to $11k so far we are ahead of pace,YES,NO,False,True,26.9492,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T15:13:14.110302Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,yesterday most of his tweets were in the morning. he only did 7 this morning,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T16:23:56.997874Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,He is preparing 28 tweets spam to troll us all,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T04:15:41.717977Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"i bought because of you, thank you",YES,YES,True,True,128.4073,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-29T16:58:41.003137Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,he still has one big spam session for today if you look at the mustracker schedule. It wil jump up,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T11:12:04.440188Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"14 hours ago i bought 150-174 at 13c, now it's at 46c. ""you're retarded"" they said. told you guys.",YES,YES,True,True,5.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-02T19:28:28.457289Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, only the future can tell the truth",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-03T15:21:34.787826Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"how many times has he passed the 450+ ? and knowing hes more busy now its looks like a No for me, im glad i have sold th",YES,NO,False,True,0.0067,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T04:02:00.518451Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Even one is definitely too much.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-21T19:28:50.044188Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,im the real one. the others are just fans of mine.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-19T11:53:26.437838Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"My PNL better without ever having made a bet, imagine you loser",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T17:59:24.175803Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Nothing is for sure in this market, could well be that he's offline for a whole day or the opposite",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-13T08:10:46.371867Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,when this market opened i saw it's shares is 10000 in every options i think it is worker in polymarket,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T15:48:26.665455Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"285-290+ by the next 6 hours and 315+ by the next 14 hours, maybe even more. i don¡¯t need some stupid ai calculations l",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T17:09:26.935309Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Because I bought it yesterday before his spam,NO,YES,False,True,56.53,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-02T17:18:14.010183Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,This guy is crazy and this weeks market is cooked,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T02:54:26.823052Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,put in a good shift this time elon,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-01T08:47:02.128894Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"The other Benny's are copying me because they are proud of me, unlike my parents.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-19T19:43:16.151609Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,I wish I could bet my home to NO,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T07:06:30.150807Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"You've lost over $1,600. Yiur gut is not a good guide. LMAO.",YES,NO,False,True,11.32,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T20:17:05.857841Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"You don't even need much anymore. His peak time is morning and night, morning was solid and night will be good too. Prob",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T17:29:27.142605Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"yeah just saw that as well, instantly plus 10 posts this week about cyberattacks, security aso. imo :)",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T00:48:27.928782Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I don't think you need that much enthusiasm for $8,YES,NO,False,True,180.609,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T16:09:20.902709Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,not far from market median around 510-520,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T17:26:40.115071Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,cyberattack he is posting about it,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-25T16:40:28.988364Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"1 day now and 24 posts, seems like he's not taking his pills anymore",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T11:55:01.408547Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Guys take your profits this man is capable of not tweeting randomly till the end of the market, don¡¯t risk it",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-18T19:27:01.723996Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"Is the ""modelation"" guy still around?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",YES,NO,False,True,525.8138,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",NO,NO,True,True,1567.0043,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-19T00:38:54.468227Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,he will post exactly 387 times,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T16:09:41.580831Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"whoever i donated those 325-350 shares to, consider hedging with buying my 350-375 shares at 9.8, please, THANKS",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-13T06:33:38.754884Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Whats your guess for the grand finale? When there was exactly a day and 12 hours left I added 150 to his current count s,YES,YES,True,True,166.6841,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T10:49:13.472655Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,Who buys 500+ while 450-500 are at 0%,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-13T09:28:49.478971Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Crusty krab pizza is the pizza for you and me,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T22:54:11.617679Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he's up $5.. the player is Rollin Deep,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,20.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,54.668,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T18:25:30.414918Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,its over. just sell before it gets any worse,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-02-28T17:44:58.708464Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,1000+ posts this week. Believe in something,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T05:05:30.354071Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,fkin misclick i thought i bought 300-324,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,174.6664,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T15:06:28.412242Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Eh, the only reason why I sold is because I genuinely got bored of gambling and Idrc about losing $15 when my university",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,22.473,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",YES,NO,False,True,525.8138,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T15:01:00.562619Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Update us when your PL is above 40$,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T15:10:13.021729Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,Get back to English class maybe?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-03T19:35:59.936397Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"Elon's favorit words must be: Yes, wow, cool and Exactly",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-19T10:40:37.874449Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"i didn't choose anything expect for N on 800+, which is very unlikely at this point. I just swing traded taking some $10",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-18T06:56:41.411249Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,better sell those shares while there is liquidity,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T17:15:27.666377Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Snap how do you lose $70k on this app, you must be a millionaire",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,15.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T10:18:50.583977Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i have won 2 of the previous weeks, turning $128 to $445,",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,23.1737,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T18:38:45.720663Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,guys i just casted a spell on elon so if u want to win then bet on the 2 i bet,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-12T03:27:44.116769Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Elon Musk has passed out from jerkmate ranked (Elite rank),YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T03:11:59.796387Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,This man is stuck in a prison he controls,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-05T01:16:21.404056Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,Crazy how he posted this many times in just the day,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T14:14:43.321192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,but if i have 100 bucks and i bet on 5 i just lose money dafk or i need to join maybe 5% or less,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,75.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T05:38:18.667478Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Elon go sleep you have to post more in the morning,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T06:47:51.329831Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"I knew you were right the entire time by the way, I was just flipping my Y shares so had to hold a stance",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T05:36:50.666715Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,imagine elon bet his whole nw on 250-274 and he stops at 274 lmao,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T16:55:04.146625Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,has been a pleasure to wake up and waste 24 dollars like this,NO,NO,True,True,24.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-13T15:00:04.996945Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,he might go to bed again cause he slept just 5 hour its too low,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-08T10:53:25.688823Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Lol that males absolutely no sense,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T02:49:59.609872Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,How are Markets Disputed? Anyone can dispute a proposed market resolution if they feel it was proposed in error. Once a,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,804.9,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,54.668,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-24T14:47:41.757681Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,elon tbh ily pleas tweet ten more and stop and we all happy,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T20:56:03.982546Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,lil bro u got $50 u aint makin it out the hood regardless,NO,NO,True,True,940.79,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-14T15:07:49.221943Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,benny predicted all of this from the start,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T12:27:51.833943Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Told you guys, he came back from the toilet and is back at it. 9 more to go in 3,5h",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T08:50:36.062861Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"He's on ketamine xD haha, that mean he dont sleep today, its a good sign of sleeping early tomorrow, just dont know how ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T16:04:41.145667Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"shuu, pnl went from $1000 to $52",NO,NO,True,True,1.038,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T14:46:12.201375Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,ok thanks i canceled it was at 121 when i sold but now it 80 is that normal?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,9.449,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T00:32:14.016645Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i started with$30 and its been about 4 weeks and im up almost 600,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,113.1269,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-19T12:48:28.539421Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"Sure Mr Huszky, you surely know more than me",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T14:35:20.455309Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,"yeah (and again, poor, 12k volume talks like a 8 figs trader, sad human being)",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-14T09:27:46.670342Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,Crazy Musk can random post 69 post in 69 mins but I except it will be next week not now :))),NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T19:47:27.364362Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"you're right it shoudln't matter much, but the fact is all brackets fell, including the -400 bracket",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T10:56:27.304326Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you think i spend 50 dollars on a lunch? thats a week of groceries for me big bruh,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,50.025,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T11:36:41.006944Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"@Therealsmurf, losing $2.2k on a single market is the most retarded thing you said? DDD",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1567.0043,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T14:16:52.892007Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Chamh is trying so hard to convince himself that he¡¯s not gonna lose money. so funny to watch.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-23T18:49:33.512549Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,"@Nobody999 thats right, delete your comment and sell your position, pathetic joke",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T11:14:37.973724Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Given we're at 03:13 AM PST on January 30, 2025, and until Friday, 12 PM EST (which translates to 9 AM PST on January 31",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-14T15:45:12.820968Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,lol because everyone wants bet for 7x24,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T08:15:10.146344Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"funny how you did the exact thing, panic sold",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-19T21:05:09.641122Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"this basically gambling, he can start posting in the next hour 30 posts and we can't predict that",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T07:09:53.106266Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"no way, he just put 2.5 bucks on 1000+",YES,NO,False,True,15.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T00:05:17.936669Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,What is up with this man today lil fingers not working,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T14:49:08.304805Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,I would agree that you have a chance. It's very 50-50 right now,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T12:43:01.937384Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Are you new to this market, the answer is yes",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T16:28:20.553842Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,you seem to be forgeting grok3 relase monday and his Ashley St Clair recent beef,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:49:01.452594Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"oh, the probability is ~90.7% now... but i guess he will still post more in recent 1~2 hours ...",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T19:05:56.320142Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Sell my 600-649 now I am sure it will be 550-599,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T01:24:58.443648Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"musk, go bed, you need a good reset",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,NO,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T11:57:55.786215Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"should i sell my higher brackets and put the money into the other brackets or just hold until market ends, i spent $100 ",YES,YES,True,True,14.646,YES,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7443f4a1cbb3be82b0d42cfe21feec2486c427d1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +519017,2025-01-24T11:36:20.025524Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Man this dude is so unpredictable it¡¯s great!,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T17:05:24.886675Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,He has heavy meetings. Hope to see 2 150+ tweets days back to back,increase,decrease,False,True,234.7984,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T08:09:21.912302Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"I wouldn't think of it that wy otherwise you'll panic. it is 0, 0, 0, 8, 0, 0, 5...not costant :D",flip,hold,False,True,835.4746,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T17:28:49.175557Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,should i sell my 325-349 shares ?,decrease,decrease,True,True,38.2163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T14:01:21.032937Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"People who actually 100% believe he's sleeping are retarded, but even if he wasn't, he's busy with a launch, he's not so",hold,increase,False,True,22.473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T18:37:53.692546Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,149 is going to be very interesting,flip,decrease,False,True,120.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T15:03:17.319653Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,thanks. do you always buy out shares that are close to 0?,increase,hold,False,True,25.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T14:27:34.156398Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,but if his next morning spam is lackluster.,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T19:19:58.294105Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,will he make it to 350 by the end of the day?,increase,decrease,False,True,2126.7599,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-20T07:37:57.502714Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,300-324 and 325-349 still so cheap,hold,increase,False,True,17.34,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:25:54.400741Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,i think +400 dude this guy is on fire,hold,flip,False,True,400.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T02:56:25.983607Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I'll never forget the time this rich motherfucker couldn't post 9 times Friday morning on a 400+ post week,hold,increase,False,True,90.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T16:48:28.171114Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,jesus christ please let me win once in my life,hold,decrease,False,True,181.13,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T19:01:37.078775Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"It's true, this isn't an exact science. I think both statistics and behavioral science play a role in making the most we",hold,hold,True,True,6.4918,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:22:59.181419Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,No way he does 550 he has to sleep...,flip,increase,False,True,269.887,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T04:07:58.023448Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"it's probably going to be low this week, 550 and above will get fucked",increase,decrease,False,True,71.2407,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-04T15:25:33.311912Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"Yea I was sarcastic, I feel like 99% probability for yes is really stretching it. He just needs to miss one day of tweet",hold,decrease,False,True,66.1138,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:09:12.034786Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Im literally about to cause a scene, BRO WHY AND WHAT I AM SO MAD",increase,decrease,False,True,204.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T09:45:41.822597Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,half way an only 140 posts so its not 50-50 :D,increase,increase,True,True,101.3666,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T07:31:54.504708Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,lol under 400 has a real chance right now haha,flip,decrease,False,True,35.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T15:03:17.319653Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,thanks. do you always buy out shares that are close to 0?,increase,hold,False,True,25.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T19:05:56.553068Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"if tomorrow he'll be as busy as today, u450 is mostly locked",increase,increase,True,True,617.4798,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T22:33:25.331407Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"He's no longer spamming, just going 1 post at a time. Think it'll be 400-425, unfortunately.",decrease,decrease,True,True,17.42,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T18:06:59.437041Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"here¡¯s where things get crazy. I was on x, looking through some elon reposts about nigerian sperm evolution in japan, a",decrease,hold,False,True,41.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:40:09.018398Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,should i ape 20k into negative lower brackets?,increase,decrease,False,True,1567.0043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-10T23:33:48.076587Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"definitely undervalued, highly doubt 500+ is going to repeat again, this was an exceptional week",increase,increase,True,True,26.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T01:54:12.556214Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Is the range of 300-324 considered undervalued?,decrease,decrease,True,True,804.9,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T08:21:47.210391Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,it's not that he's asleep. it is his most productive time. he's nocturnal. according to himself the earliest he goes to ,flip,increase,False,True,835.4746,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T18:11:14.691838Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,425-449 copefully. Under 400 is looking more and more unlikely.,decrease,flip,False,True,17.42,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T06:05:59.497228Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,haha how many hours does he sleep on average?,increase,decrease,False,True,21.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-01T11:51:57.441386Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,yeah and also that some tweets or even most consist of replies which wont even count,flip,decrease,False,True,120.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:13:47.656726Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"I hate all of you, fuck you all and have a terrible day",increase,decrease,False,True,204.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T14:21:21.346784Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Thanks Elon, now I can fly to KL fo tind my lost kitty",increase,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T01:18:22.456181Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,i already did and it was accurate,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-12T06:55:29.305869Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,That's a good time to be laying in bed and tweet all day :)),increase,increase,True,True,5622.4683,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T03:44:54.210869Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"as long as he tweets less then 11 times in the next 13 hours, under 250 should be set.",decrease,increase,False,True,180.609,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T12:11:26.790656Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,- a man who put in $150 and lost $120,decrease,decrease,True,True,72.3597,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T04:55:20.241961Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"With a day and a half left, under 400 looks like a good bet",decrease,increase,False,True,83.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T21:17:34.743002Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"600-649 looks reasonable, but 4 days to go though the odds are at 25% already DD",increase,decrease,False,True,2126.7599,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T10:11:32.564744Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"lets pray he slows tweeting down. i bet too much lol. yeah, my bad.",flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-21T04:14:06.787947Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Honestly I would no be surprise if he reaches 400+,increase,increase,True,True,128.111,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:10:27.513378Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Am new here but have to say, the comment section here is the best!",hold,hold,True,True,55.9105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T04:09:46.359676Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Your PNL is correlated to your IQ, Forrest.",hold,decrease,False,True,32.0881,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T07:34:09.245036Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"If he is gonna spam like last launch, it gonna be crazy.",flip,increase,False,True,1592.7805,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T13:05:10.445881Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,Because the odds are undervalued.,hold,hold,True,True,9.9,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:58:57.001632Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,That¡¯s a fun bet with 8 dollars brother chill down it¡¯s a loss but would be funny if they win,flip,decrease,False,True,550.1846,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T21:54:06.153416Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,I'll be amazed if he manages to get 301 in the next 3.5 days.,decrease,increase,False,True,147.2546,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T16:33:16.517518Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"being tired is an argument for an increased number of tweets imo. At least judging from personal experience, it's when y",flip,increase,False,True,2.07,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T23:59:46.979267Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,well he posted quite a bit :D its just that it was replies,decrease,hold,False,True,200.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T09:15:58.347034Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,I feel like selling early 5$ for 33$ ain't bad. potential win is 190$,decrease,decrease,True,True,9.449,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T07:36:46.521615Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Sleep well sweet Elon, we want you to be healthy ??",increase,decrease,False,True,181.4182,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T03:50:45.493431Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"you both have the same bet, yet both don't want the same outcome.. I never understand you degenerates",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-24T07:10:23.364018Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,down like the pants you dream of?,decrease,decrease,True,True,46.62,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T01:31:06.607054Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,He is busy with spainsat NG I mission launch. Hez gonna spam post launch of falcon,flip,increase,False,True,553.12,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T15:03:12.759846Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Where is the spam right now? Not even 50 posts, he needs 100 more :D",decrease,increase,False,True,201.1826,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-01T04:30:33.966885Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"If anyone donates any amount, I will release this week¡¯s predictions. In the previous two cycles, I made accurate predi",increase,hold,False,True,372.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T18:07:04.823626Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,as long as today is under 100 we are fine,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T14:09:23.872103Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,I've already sold it.. so why tf am I trying to pump exactly? Can you explain that?,hold,decrease,False,True,22.473,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T13:00:11.768314Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he made 15+ in last 30 min. yes he can make 25 in 3 hours,decrease,increase,False,True,31.7816,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T17:51:40.618226Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,It makes me very sad to see so many fake bennys,increase,hold,False,True,14.6114,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T10:37:17.930801Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,Pretty sure we will see a sub 400 result. At YES 70% a bit undervalued currently.,hold,increase,False,True,411.8266,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T08:24:16.994988Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"My copium says that the spam of yesterday was because of his interview. Since he posted everything about that, maybe he'",increase,decrease,False,True,365.2968,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T07:04:06.889255Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,up to Elon's whim and health. since he's in the habit of posting on mornings now and since he still does have two mornin,flip,hold,False,True,177.2934,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T14:03:13.983298Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Chat should I diamond hands or sell for a profit,decrease,decrease,True,True,27.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",flip,increase,False,True,117.72,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T04:05:05.739363Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,I just need 42 more tweets elon please,flip,decrease,False,True,12325.6427,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:49:36.569719Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,look at my profit I am doing ok,flip,decrease,False,True,549.1846,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:46:27.689443Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"of course i cope, i stand to make 3.5k :)). I don't know man. I guess we will have a better view tomorrow",increase,decrease,False,True,525.8138,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T14:29:13.158895Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,easiest money you'll make in 2 hours,increase,increase,True,True,4.7978,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T11:40:28.070913Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,so elon went to sleep 5hrs ago. in 1 hr he tweets again,flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-02T18:41:28.878958Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Exactly, significantly. And we are betting on a short time period outcome and a couple of unusual events (underperfomanc",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T08:53:56.503421Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,its almost 4:00 for him why isn't he sleeping:D,decrease,decrease,True,True,168.2022,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T11:41:08.693604Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,how do you know he's in virgina,decrease,hold,False,True,108.763,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T13:43:07.889803Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,im just wondering that 525+ is 21 cents,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-21T04:47:15.509925Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,i don't know how this market always keep surprising everyone xD,hold,hold,True,True,17.34,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-01T20:09:57.659376Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Watch him not tweet for two days, to then post 200 times in 1 day",decrease,decrease,True,True,155.66,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,decrease,increase,False,True,4.0583,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T23:41:30.453118Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"if you dont believe me try betting on the crypto markets, you will soon get my point",decrease,hold,False,True,62.2784,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T04:16:34.905928Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,lol it was looking like an easy win earlier today,flip,decrease,False,True,12325.6427,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T16:34:51.940127Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"For greedy people. Last week, I ended up losing quite a bit on the 2nd market, should've stayed at 500+ on the first and",flip,decrease,False,True,121.25,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-14T20:15:33.319391Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"hello, u450 is gonna go up about 4c by tommorow morning, stay with me now",increase,hold,False,True,3.78,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T22:35:22.999133Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Wait i just noticed the reply 28 mins ago..,decrease,decrease,True,True,200.835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-25T21:51:37.850485Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"but tbh you kinda pursuaded me, so i also bought your bracket",flip,increase,False,True,35.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T17:01:26.938936Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,What time do they usually reset the week?,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T10:57:27.834496Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,i think he means that it's 2.25 days,increase,decrease,False,True,25.1,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T19:59:57.719406Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,he is not even going to make it in the 300s due to further slow downs. you uys will crawl here soon,hold,increase,False,True,0.97,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:49:37.365968Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,[(449-287)/69.25]*168=393. So he'd have to post at that rate for the remaining 2 something days for U450 to hit. I don't,hold,increase,False,True,6.4918,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T05:54:24.472441Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,even in his better weeks he did like 30 posts in the last 12 hours (just look up the average on musktracker). Now he wou,flip,increase,False,True,596.625,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-12T13:29:43.490694Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"No, all tweets were counted not only 12 hours of the first day.",increase,decrease,False,True,3.729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T08:24:54.608252Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Getting soft. The correct sentence should've been ""I don't like Jews"".",hold,hold,True,True,32.0881,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T20:31:54.980131Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Ive finally figured it all out! The winning Strategy! Years of research but now I Know the secret Formula! Just do the ,flip,flip,True,True,30.6,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T10:36:01.397282Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Dont get why these odds are 50/50,decrease,decrease,True,True,155.42,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T13:34:12.141591Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Why you are so passive agress man,flip,decrease,False,True,69.0048,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-13T10:11:35.967467Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,I hope he breaks 1000 tweets record,decrease,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T17:46:26.590163Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Your loss of $77 could have bought you starbucks coffee for a month,flip,decrease,False,True,1.03,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-01T14:10:15.522331Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,What made you decide that there would be +450 posts?,hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T04:24:57.252207Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,omg I'm so bad. I do kara-tay. A bit of boxing and grappling puts all martial artists to shame. I would make you beg for,hold,hold,True,True,32.0881,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T04:15:25.895837Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"it is over, thanks for playing",decrease,hold,False,True,6.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:21:39.681533Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,he cant keep getting away with this.mp3,flip,decrease,False,True,52.0471,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:32:07.625552Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"we don't want him to be out of the cage for too long now, but his pace is pretty sexy rn ngl so we good",flip,increase,False,True,193.5615,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T15:56:32.034791Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"its over, the launch is over, he overslept",decrease,decrease,True,True,463.9595,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T21:28:31.605248Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,bro you just lost halve of your portfolio,flip,decrease,False,True,30.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T07:42:04.479625Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Although, usual is 10 to 20 posts, so it's not crazy he will surpass 324 once he wakes up",flip,decrease,False,True,24.1647,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T00:55:59.809885Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"yeah, well I guess we'll see if something crazy happens tomorrow for him to tweet out like crazy",decrease,decrease,True,True,164.3152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T17:11:01.616461Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,are these 10k here in room with us?,decrease,hold,False,True,450.1419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:28:00.423769Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,the dude is out of the cage it seems,flip,increase,False,True,193.5615,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T03:59:35.429054Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Ain¡¯t nobody keeps up with what he posts¡­ and he probably realized it. Quality posts over quantity posts, smart move. ",decrease,increase,False,True,134.3702,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T06:42:49.833346Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,so if he does 75 the next 2 days. u400 loses. interesting,increase,decrease,False,True,1.038,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T10:13:36.890464Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"40 hours or so. Then he'll need to do 350 in 3 days. Which he may do, assuming he has nothing else to do and has a lot o",decrease,decrease,True,True,648.3883,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T13:23:55.199777Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,3 tweets under 1 mins... but no count here... it should be 147,decrease,decrease,True,True,8.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T19:06:41.816082Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Looks like a slow start into an unpredictable market. Good Luck to all of those that will choose the brackets I also ha,hold,hold,True,True,12.4092,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T06:44:29.685511Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"first 3,5 days 153 posts - and they surely will add those 13...would be grotesque if not - so the other 3,5 days need on",flip,flip,True,True,272.6265,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T04:54:51.038836Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"It¡¯s 11:54pm in Dulles, Virginia where he¡¯s at right now. Probably gonna sleep and not tweet much until after the coun",hold,decrease,False,True,0.9736,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T21:38:20.241513Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, for some reason I can't respond to any of the gerontophile's posts.",hold,hold,True,True,55.4304,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T15:58:12.541138Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"just make orders at like 4-8c for stuff, usually they go up at some point and someone actually buys at that price lol",increase,hold,False,True,37.6243,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T11:36:41.006944Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"@Therealsmurf, losing $2.2k on a single market is the most retarded thing you said? DDD",decrease,decrease,True,True,1567.0043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:08:13.709613Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,taking my time to read your comment is such life waste,hold,decrease,False,True,5.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T17:22:25.914227Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"it's all true, i found it myself",increase,hold,False,True,36.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T11:05:41.946602Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,i think 399 posts with 1 more post in last minute,flip,flip,True,True,23.3363,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:29:05.265593Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,he's busy this week. he's still in Washington DC. he's locked in,flip,increase,False,True,52.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T22:54:21.517168Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,dont worry guys. everything is under control,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T08:06:49.044435Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Imagine if its ended right on the cusp at 549, the panic selling would be golden",hold,hold,True,True,55.9105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T05:54:24.472441Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,even in his better weeks he did like 30 posts in the last 12 hours (just look up the average on musktracker). Now he wou,flip,increase,False,True,596.625,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T16:24:32.583833Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"u70 tweets 2 days in row is severe cope, to think there is also a monday morning spam. even 525 + is on the table",hold,flip,False,True,45.6192,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T06:17:14.508395Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,Hopefully he went to sleep now,flip,decrease,False,True,596.625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-01T17:33:48.466152Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"Dude, believing and buying are two different things!",flip,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:46:27.689443Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"of course i cope, i stand to make 3.5k :)). I don't know man. I guess we will have a better view tomorrow",increase,decrease,False,True,525.8138,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T07:12:22.017987Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,he is at 102. it was just the tracker not tracking.,decrease,increase,False,True,708.4673,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:52:13.478866Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"It's going to go over 275, isn't it?",hold,flip,False,True,90.5,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T14:34:04.393204Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,HE JUST TO TWEETS 2 MORE FOR REST TO BE WINNING,hold,increase,False,True,5.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T13:19:17.569597Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Is he still in Washington DC? Has Trump adopted him?,increase,decrease,False,True,180.2839,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T14:50:46.202527Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"LOL if it just money"" gift me instead of gifting the billionaires. need 1k$ to start trading that why am here lol",hold,hold,True,True,5.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-01T13:03:40.230278Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,hes active. Lets see how much he will post,flip,hold,False,True,120.89,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-24T07:10:23.364018Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,down like the pants you dream of?,decrease,decrease,True,True,46.62,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T19:04:24.694728Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,I believe its going to land there. On his usually most active day he did 15! and Today he did 6. So chances are very hig,flip,increase,False,True,120.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T16:19:28.314634Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,I really appreciate it man. ya I'm always right,increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T07:57:41.350377Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,103. Two replies on the main feed.,decrease,hold,False,True,708.4673,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-01T21:29:24.784491Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,reminder this week is trumps state of the union. elon will tweet like crazy and repost clips of it,flip,increase,False,True,194.99,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:27:32.654557Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"300-324 gang going strong rn but guys he needs to chill a bit srsly, can go over easily now",flip,decrease,False,True,193.5615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T20:50:29.823632Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Even if he ends today at 220, he would have to tweet out over 60 tomorrow, just to have a chance of it being over 300.",decrease,increase,False,True,164.3152,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T06:50:43.412011Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"ok elon u can calm down, i knew u500 was cope but u dont have to blow off my position as well",hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T06:22:09.234749Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Historically, the number of posts on Thursdays has always been higher than on Wednesdays. Don¡¯t worry",hold,hold,True,True,699.2,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T19:41:26.983344Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Remove the i from ican. Just a simple typo.,hold,hold,True,True,27.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T17:27:45.810058Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"elon, just chill man, take a nap, etc! and you've got work to do with DOGE : ) hehe!",flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T14:15:01.351494Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"that's science for him tho, past performance ""always"" predict future. Lets see",increase,increase,True,True,69.0048,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T00:58:25.474189Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Less than 300 going up as he tweets LMFAO,flip,decrease,False,True,4.7083,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-24T12:21:31.324105Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"dude, you literally wrote me about the pants and foaming XD you don't even need to say it about yourself, you are either",decrease,hold,False,True,46.62,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T10:09:52.868373Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"People read into previous patterns like crazy. Coping beyond repair. He's clearly busy these days, but that's too much t",flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T08:11:05.707957Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"you are so stupid, that it hurts me. It happened many times in the past to finish under 450 when he was busy in DC",increase,increase,True,True,485.3693,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T20:22:52.505356Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Is not easy, he is the guy so.. maybe in 1 day can post 60 or 70 so calm down and pray haha",increase,decrease,False,True,97.98,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T15:56:46.900832Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,I guess he is starting to slow down,hold,decrease,False,True,21.9133,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:51:55.311176Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,there's no a lot of liquidity though :(((,increase,decrease,False,True,1567.0043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-27T17:41:06.187629Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,where is elon right now. what time zone,hold,decrease,False,True,4.2865,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",flip,increase,False,True,117.72,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-03T16:25:02.660574Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"ppl switch fast lol, im going to be patience tho",decrease,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T03:01:52.397924Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"it's looking ugly, i wouldn't leave my chair if i were you",flip,decrease,False,True,23.7083,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T13:23:32.221523Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,NAH THANKS TO ELON FR HE CLUCHED,hold,increase,False,True,5.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T06:50:08.638036Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,first night Elon is spamming in a long time. u400 will crash soon.,increase,increase,True,True,1.038,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:41:36.400263Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,what if he never left bed at all,flip,flip,True,True,31.8855,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T15:19:29.018722Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Its a 7 day market with 3 whole days left. Watch it drop by 10-15 percent next time Elon makes a few posts,increase,decrease,False,True,5.4615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T11:02:14.759153Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Good morning mr Musk. Early start to bang 62 tweets out today (already got 7),decrease,increase,False,True,420.84,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T16:11:38.495116Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Elon scams this market every week gauranteed,hold,decrease,False,True,1.9749,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T15:48:08.828745Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,850-874 were getting a bit too cocky,hold,decrease,False,True,7.1114,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T06:58:12.974662Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"if he doesn't post for another 24 hours, the required peace to reach 500 will be 87 per day",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T14:19:26.378654Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,@elontesla please buy all my 450-499 shares thank you,increase,hold,False,True,1559.2822,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-28T17:51:27.781194Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"yep, as expected, the argumentation is over",increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-19T17:18:52.355833Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"If this is to be my final stand, so be it.",hold,decrease,False,True,1249.76,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T02:49:54.853742Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Maybe his ketamine dealer is on vacation?,increase,decrease,False,True,1.924,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T16:16:47.607252Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,425 is not that far away for him,hold,decrease,False,True,52.8,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-20T09:40:12.997329Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,lets go Elon post a bit but dont overdo it brother,increase,decrease,False,True,8.3217,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T12:08:44.449489Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"okay so he's sleeping right now. 2 days left. let's say he does 50 tweets today, and 50 tweets tomorrow (which he has no",flip,increase,False,True,708.0219,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T14:35:08.807111Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Damn this guy is unpredictable,flip,decrease,False,True,338.57,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T15:20:42.396795Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"""Grrrr the richest man in the world is not tweeting as much as I thought. Im loosing my money. This is all Elon's fault,",increase,decrease,False,True,5.4615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T13:50:47.243233Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,elon is active or not i just check 4/5 weeks ago and holy is unpredictable as fuc*,decrease,decrease,True,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-02T06:50:52.321095Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,don¡¯t panic. he will sleep within 1h,hold,decrease,False,True,69.51,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T11:02:36.067779Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"if we look at his current pace, this is what the data suggests, (prediction using math and statistics based on probabili",decrease,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-07T17:45:25.699999Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Who knows first time for me too,flip,hold,False,True,2.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T09:16:19.086289Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Bro you bet on Rockets to win the Ring...,hold,decrease,False,True,179.8829,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T03:09:44.218711Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,from what im reading you might be worse,decrease,decrease,True,True,4128.8912,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T10:12:00.793679Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,what's reward farm sorry not familiar with the term,hold,hold,True,True,3.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:08:59.762223Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I downloaded the file he's last tweets total was on 496 which he replied with yup now he tweeted 3 more from that making,hold,increase,False,True,5.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:01:02.882507Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"less than 300 is so cooked, but i'm kinda scared it's gonna go past 324 and then I lose the house",flip,decrease,False,True,193.5615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T19:25:01.905862Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"why did you buy it for 15 cents? That price is nowhere near this price, i think thats the reason. Did you lose balance?",increase,decrease,False,True,5.729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T08:17:10.495741Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,I think he fished it out of the bin,decrease,decrease,True,True,44.02,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T13:19:52.990474Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,This motherfucker will shitpost so much today that you will ask yourself why the richest man in the world is also the bi,hold,increase,False,True,716.1444,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T14:27:13.170684Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i need 10k to pay tiny house, so hope y make money wish me luck plssss",decrease,decrease,True,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T19:08:41.975055Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"weird pricing of the brackets, the market thinks that if he'll do over 450, he'll do at least 475",increase,decrease,False,True,617.4798,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T12:22:38.565215Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"maybe, but it's clearly a bad one, since most of the NO holders have negative PNL",decrease,decrease,True,True,661.8665,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T20:07:16.457671Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"It's old news, not the first time Grok says that",increase,hold,False,True,240.9339,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T23:18:34.219292Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,world twitter day is March 21st but nice try,increase,decrease,False,True,148.7332,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-24T07:55:31.894071Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Sleep well, Elon, we don't need to exaggerate, 500 would be a perfect spot to land on.",decrease,decrease,True,True,46.62,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T22:03:47.097439Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,why you delete your message ? xD,flip,hold,False,True,30.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T06:23:53.636613Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,he will never reach 500+ for the third time in a row,increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T14:07:14.601344Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,elon is going to give me a heart attack,flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T07:02:20.497248Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,I have been wondering how u499 is still in play since 2 days ago tbh XDD,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T20:48:38.650835Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Episode IV: A New Spammer Episode V: The Autist strikes back Episode VI: Return of Ketamine,hold,hold,True,True,55.4304,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-17T08:06:29.092226Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"82c on less than 450 is super expensive, there have been many fridays where he posted more than 30 times last few weeks",hold,decrease,False,True,3.1305,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:23:05.860673Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,this mf didnt even sleep yet go to sleep,decrease,increase,False,True,34.4913,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",increase,decrease,False,True,1567.0043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T10:21:08.965616Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i really dont like the weekly crypto market, its where i got the negative pnl. Elon tweets markets are less stressful an",decrease,hold,False,True,23.1737,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..19f6eee97ca6cf398a5e457ce46869c6686ef376 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,101 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +514253,2024-12-05T06:22:09.234749Z,"Historically, the number of posts on Thursdays has always been higher than on Wednesdays. Don¡¯t worry",hold,hold,True +523033,2025-02-14T09:15:58.347034Z,I feel like selling early 5$ for 33$ ain't bad. potential win is 190$,decrease,decrease,True +519017,2025-01-24T14:01:21.032937Z,"People who actually 100% believe he's sleeping are retarded, but even if he wasn't, he's busy with a launch, he's not so",hold,hold,True +519017,2025-01-24T15:56:32.034791Z,"its over, the launch is over, he overslept",decrease,decrease,True +519877,2025-01-27T03:59:35.429054Z,"Ain¡¯t nobody keeps up with what he posts¡­ and he probably realized it. Quality posts over quantity posts, smart move. ",decrease,hold,False +523486,2025-02-19T17:18:52.355833Z,"If this is to be my final stand, so be it.",hold,decrease,False +519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,decrease,decrease,True +526076,2025-03-04T21:38:20.241513Z,"Yeah, for some reason I can't respond to any of the gerontophile's posts.",hold,decrease,False +529581,2025-03-24T12:21:31.324105Z,"dude, you literally wrote me about the pants and foaming XD you don't even need to say it about yourself, you are either",decrease,decrease,True +539617,2025-04-30T08:17:10.495741Z,I think he fished it out of the bin,decrease,decrease,True +528110,2025-03-17T22:35:22.999133Z,Wait i just noticed the reply 28 mins ago..,decrease,decrease,True +528110,2025-03-20T08:53:56.503421Z,its almost 4:00 for him why isn't he sleeping:D,decrease,hold,False +514253,2024-12-04T20:50:29.823632Z,"Even if he ends today at 220, he would have to tweet out over 60 tomorrow, just to have a chance of it being over 300.",decrease,decrease,True +529581,2025-03-28T03:50:45.493431Z,"you both have the same bet, yet both don't want the same outcome.. I never understand you degenerates",hold,decrease,False +519017,2025-01-24T10:25:54.400741Z,i think +400 dude this guy is on fire,hold,decrease,False +527180,2025-03-12T15:56:46.900832Z,I guess he is starting to slow down,hold,decrease,False +521117,2025-02-03T16:25:02.660574Z,"ppl switch fast lol, im going to be patience tho",decrease,hold,False +519877,2025-01-30T03:44:54.210869Z,"as long as he tweets less then 11 times in the next 13 hours, under 250 should be set.",decrease,decrease,True +523486,2025-02-16T10:13:36.890464Z,"40 hours or so. Then he'll need to do 350 in 3 days. Which he may do, assuming he has nothing else to do and has a lot o",decrease,decrease,True +527180,2025-03-13T07:02:20.497248Z,I have been wondering how u499 is still in play since 2 days ago tbh XDD,hold,hold,True +526076,2025-03-07T08:06:49.044435Z,"Imagine if its ended right on the cusp at 549, the panic selling would be golden",hold,decrease,False +514253,2024-12-05T00:55:59.809885Z,"yeah, well I guess we'll see if something crazy happens tomorrow for him to tweet out like crazy",decrease,hold,False +527180,2025-03-11T18:49:37.365968Z,[(449-287)/69.25]*168=393. So he'd have to post at that rate for the remaining 2 something days for U450 to hit. I don't,hold,decrease,False +514253,2024-12-04T15:03:12.759846Z,"Where is the spam right now? Not even 50 posts, he needs 100 more :D",decrease,hold,False +518120,2025-01-15T10:37:17.930801Z,Pretty sure we will see a sub 400 result. At YES 70% a bit undervalued currently.,hold,hold,True +515555,2024-12-20T16:16:47.607252Z,425 is not that far away for him,hold,decrease,False +529581,2025-03-24T07:10:23.364018Z,down like the pants you dream of?,decrease,decrease,True +514253,2024-12-03T17:28:49.175557Z,should i sell my 325-349 shares ?,decrease,decrease,True +527180,2025-03-13T06:50:43.412011Z,"ok elon u can calm down, i knew u500 was cope but u dont have to blow off my position as well",hold,decrease,False +514253,2024-12-02T07:12:22.017987Z,he is at 102. it was just the tracker not tracking.,decrease,hold,False +519017,2025-01-24T11:36:20.025524Z,Man this dude is so unpredictable it¡¯s great!,decrease,hold,False +528110,2025-03-19T23:41:30.453118Z,"if you dont believe me try betting on the crypto markets, you will soon get my point",decrease,decrease,True +514253,2024-12-02T07:57:41.350377Z,103. Two replies on the main feed.,decrease,hold,False +519017,2025-01-24T14:09:23.872103Z,I've already sold it.. so why tf am I trying to pump exactly? Can you explain that?,hold,decrease,False +523486,2025-02-15T17:11:01.616461Z,are these 10k here in room with us?,decrease,hold,False +519017,2025-01-24T19:06:41.816082Z,Looks like a slow start into an unpredictable market. Good Luck to all of those that will choose the brackets I also ha,hold,hold,True +519877,2025-01-31T03:09:44.218711Z,from what im reading you might be worse,decrease,decrease,True +529581,2025-03-28T15:08:59.762223Z,I downloaded the file he's last tweets total was on 496 which he replied with yup now he tweeted 3 more from that making,hold,decrease,False +518120,2025-01-16T04:55:20.241961Z,"With a day and a half left, under 400 looks like a good bet",decrease,hold,False +523486,2025-02-16T12:22:38.565215Z,"maybe, but it's clearly a bad one, since most of the NO holders have negative PNL",decrease,decrease,True +528110,2025-03-19T13:50:47.243233Z,elon is active or not i just check 4/5 weeks ago and holy is unpredictable as fuc*,decrease,decrease,True +519017,2025-01-20T07:37:57.502714Z,300-324 and 325-349 still so cheap,hold,hold,True +529581,2025-03-27T17:41:06.187629Z,where is elon right now. what time zone,hold,hold,True +519017,2025-01-24T11:41:08.693604Z,how do you know he's in virgina,decrease,decrease,True +518120,2025-01-13T13:05:10.445881Z,Because the odds are undervalued.,hold,hold,True +518120,2025-01-16T18:11:14.691838Z,425-449 copefully. Under 400 is looking more and more unlikely.,decrease,decrease,True +519017,2025-01-21T04:47:15.509925Z,i don't know how this market always keep surprising everyone xD,hold,hold,True +514253,2024-12-05T11:02:14.759153Z,Good morning mr Musk. Early start to bang 62 tweets out today (already got 7),decrease,decrease,True +519877,2025-01-29T14:03:13.983298Z,Chat should I diamond hands or sell for a profit,decrease,decrease,True +518120,2025-01-16T22:33:25.331407Z,"He's no longer spamming, just going 1 post at a time. Think it'll be 400-425, unfortunately.",decrease,decrease,True +528110,2025-03-19T14:27:13.170684Z,"i need 10k to pay tiny house, so hope y make money wish me luck plssss",decrease,decrease,True +514253,2024-12-01T20:09:57.659376Z,"Watch him not tweet for two days, to then post 200 times in 1 day",decrease,decrease,True +523486,2025-02-15T22:54:21.517168Z,dont worry guys. everything is under control,decrease,hold,False +519877,2025-01-26T19:41:26.983344Z,Remove the i from ican. Just a simple typo.,hold,hold,True +529581,2025-03-28T13:00:11.768314Z,he made 15+ in last 30 min. yes he can make 25 in 3 hours,decrease,decrease,True +519017,2025-01-24T10:23:05.860673Z,this mf didnt even sleep yet go to sleep,decrease,decrease,True +526076,2025-03-02T18:41:28.878958Z,"Exactly, significantly. And we are betting on a short time period outcome and a couple of unusual events (underperfomanc",decrease,decrease,True +529581,2025-03-24T07:10:23.364018Z,down like the pants you dream of?,decrease,decrease,True +526076,2025-03-07T10:10:27.513378Z,"Am new here but have to say, the comment section here is the best!",hold,hold,True +527180,2025-03-12T13:43:07.889803Z,im just wondering that 525+ is 21 cents,hold,decrease,False +526076,2025-03-06T20:48:38.650835Z,Episode IV: A New Spammer Episode V: The Autist strikes back Episode VI: Return of Ketamine,hold,decrease,False +527180,2025-03-12T16:24:32.583833Z,"u70 tweets 2 days in row is severe cope, to think there is also a monday morning spam. even 525 + is on the table",hold,decrease,False +514253,2024-12-03T01:18:22.456181Z,i already did and it was accurate,hold,hold,True +523033,2025-02-14T15:48:08.828745Z,850-874 were getting a bit too cocky,hold,decrease,False +527180,2025-03-10T21:54:06.153416Z,I'll be amazed if he manages to get 301 in the next 3.5 days.,decrease,decrease,True +519877,2025-01-29T13:23:55.199777Z,3 tweets under 1 mins... but no count here... it should be 147,decrease,decrease,True +529581,2025-03-28T14:50:46.202527Z,"LOL if it just money"" gift me instead of gifting the billionaires. need 1k$ to start trading that why am here lol",hold,decrease,False +529581,2025-03-28T14:34:04.393204Z,HE JUST TO TWEETS 2 MORE FOR REST TO BE WINNING,hold,decrease,False +519017,2025-01-23T08:24:54.608252Z,"Getting soft. The correct sentence should've been ""I don't like Jews"".",hold,decrease,False +519017,2025-01-23T04:09:46.359676Z,"Your PNL is correlated to your IQ, Forrest.",hold,decrease,False +514253,2024-12-05T10:36:01.397282Z,Dont get why these odds are 50/50,decrease,decrease,True +518120,2025-01-17T08:06:29.092226Z,"82c on less than 450 is super expensive, there have been many fridays where he posted more than 30 times last few weeks",hold,decrease,False +519017,2025-01-24T16:11:38.495116Z,Elon scams this market every week gauranteed,hold,decrease,False +527180,2025-03-13T14:27:34.156398Z,but if his next morning spam is lackluster.,hold,decrease,False +514253,2024-12-03T01:54:12.556214Z,Is the range of 300-324 considered undervalued?,decrease,hold,False +526076,2025-03-06T18:06:59.437041Z,"here¡¯s where things get crazy. I was on x, looking through some elon reposts about nigerian sperm evolution in japan, a",decrease,hold,False +519017,2025-01-24T04:54:51.038836Z,"It¡¯s 11:54pm in Dulles, Virginia where he¡¯s at right now. Probably gonna sleep and not tweet much until after the coun",hold,decrease,False +519877,2025-01-30T12:11:26.790656Z,- a man who put in $150 and lost $120,decrease,decrease,True +529581,2025-03-26T11:02:36.067779Z,"if we look at his current pace, this is what the data suggests, (prediction using math and statistics based on probabili",decrease,hold,False +519017,2025-01-23T04:24:57.252207Z,omg I'm so bad. I do kara-tay. A bit of boxing and grappling puts all martial artists to shame. I would make you beg for,hold,hold,True +523033,2025-02-13T10:11:35.967467Z,I hope he breaks 1000 tweets record,decrease,hold,False +521117,2025-02-01T14:10:15.522331Z,What made you decide that there would be +450 posts?,hold,decrease,False +529581,2025-03-28T15:08:13.709613Z,taking my time to read your comment is such life waste,hold,decrease,False +519877,2025-01-31T04:52:13.478866Z,"It's going to go over 275, isn't it?",hold,decrease,False +527180,2025-03-10T10:12:00.793679Z,what's reward farm sorry not familiar with the term,hold,hold,True +519017,2025-01-24T17:01:26.938936Z,What time do they usually reset the week?,hold,hold,True +528110,2025-03-17T19:59:57.719406Z,he is not even going to make it in the 300s due to further slow downs. you uys will crawl here soon,hold,decrease,False +521117,2025-02-04T15:25:33.311912Z,"Yea I was sarcastic, I feel like 99% probability for yes is really stretching it. He just needs to miss one day of tweet",hold,decrease,False +528110,2025-03-16T10:21:08.965616Z,"i really dont like the weekly crypto market, its where i got the negative pnl. Elon tweets markets are less stressful an",decrease,decrease,True +529581,2025-03-28T16:48:28.171114Z,jesus christ please let me win once in my life,hold,decrease,False +529581,2025-03-24T07:55:31.894071Z,"Sleep well, Elon, we don't need to exaggerate, 500 would be a perfect spot to land on.",decrease,decrease,True +526076,2025-03-03T11:36:41.006944Z,"@Therealsmurf, losing $2.2k on a single market is the most retarded thing you said? DDD",decrease,hold,False +519877,2025-01-31T02:56:25.983607Z,I'll never forget the time this rich motherfucker couldn't post 9 times Friday morning on a 400+ post week,hold,decrease,False +527180,2025-03-11T19:01:37.078775Z,"It's true, this isn't an exact science. I think both statistics and behavioral science play a role in making the most we",hold,hold,True +529581,2025-03-28T13:23:32.221523Z,NAH THANKS TO ELON FR HE CLUCHED,hold,decrease,False +528110,2025-03-17T23:59:46.979267Z,well he posted quite a bit :D its just that it was replies,decrease,decrease,True +519877,2025-01-30T09:16:19.086289Z,Bro you bet on Rockets to win the Ring...,hold,decrease,False +527180,2025-03-11T04:15:25.895837Z,"it is over, thanks for playing",decrease,decrease,True +527180,2025-03-13T13:19:52.990474Z,This motherfucker will shitpost so much today that you will ask yourself why the richest man in the world is also the bi,hold,decrease,False +539617,2025-05-02T06:50:52.321095Z,don¡¯t panic. he will sleep within 1h,hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c32c8c3917da93fb9f0a6c4c9e7c6f39e5975059 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,101 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +514253,2024-12-05T06:22:09.234749Z,"Historically, the number of posts on Thursdays has always been higher than on Wednesdays. Don¡¯t worry",hold,hold,True +519017,2025-01-24T14:01:21.032937Z,"People who actually 100% believe he's sleeping are retarded, but even if he wasn't, he's busy with a launch, he's not so",hold,hold,True +523486,2025-02-19T17:18:52.355833Z,"If this is to be my final stand, so be it.",hold,hold,True +514253,2024-12-05T16:27:32.654557Z,"300-324 gang going strong rn but guys he needs to chill a bit srsly, can go over easily now",flip,flip,True +526076,2025-03-07T10:22:59.181419Z,No way he does 550 he has to sleep...,flip,hold,False +518120,2025-01-15T11:05:41.946602Z,i think 399 posts with 1 more post in last minute,flip,flip,True +526076,2025-03-04T21:38:20.241513Z,"Yeah, for some reason I can't respond to any of the gerontophile's posts.",hold,hold,True +529581,2025-03-26T20:31:54.980131Z,Ive finally figured it all out! The winning Strategy! Years of research but now I Know the secret Formula! Just do the ,flip,flip,True +514253,2024-12-03T06:44:29.685511Z,"first 3,5 days 153 posts - and they surely will add those 13...would be grotesque if not - so the other 3,5 days need on",flip,flip,True +514253,2024-12-05T16:28:00.423769Z,the dude is out of the cage it seems,flip,flip,True +519877,2025-01-28T13:34:12.141591Z,Why you are so passive agress man,flip,hold,False +539617,2025-05-01T11:51:57.441386Z,yeah and also that some tweets or even most consist of replies which wont even count,flip,flip,True +514253,2024-12-05T08:09:21.912302Z,"I wouldn't think of it that wy otherwise you'll panic. it is 0, 0, 0, 8, 0, 0, 5...not costant :D",flip,hold,False +529581,2025-03-28T03:50:45.493431Z,"you both have the same bet, yet both don't want the same outcome.. I never understand you degenerates",hold,flip,False +529581,2025-03-26T21:28:31.605248Z,bro you just lost halve of your portfolio,flip,flip,True +527180,2025-03-12T15:56:46.900832Z,I guess he is starting to slow down,hold,hold,True +527180,2025-03-11T18:49:37.365968Z,[(449-287)/69.25]*168=393. So he'd have to post at that rate for the remaining 2 something days for U450 to hit. I don't,hold,flip,False +527180,2025-03-13T07:02:20.497248Z,I have been wondering how u499 is still in play since 2 days ago tbh XDD,hold,hold,True +514253,2024-12-05T07:04:06.889255Z,up to Elon's whim and health. since he's in the habit of posting on mornings now and since he still does have two mornin,flip,hold,False +523033,2025-02-14T04:16:34.905928Z,lol it was looking like an easy win earlier today,flip,hold,False +518120,2025-01-15T10:37:17.930801Z,Pretty sure we will see a sub 400 result. At YES 70% a bit undervalued currently.,hold,hold,True +523033,2025-02-14T04:05:05.739363Z,I just need 42 more tweets elon please,flip,flip,True +519877,2025-01-28T18:49:36.569719Z,look at my profit I am doing ok,flip,hold,False +539617,2025-04-30T18:37:53.692546Z,149 is going to be very interesting,flip,hold,False +526076,2025-03-07T08:06:49.044435Z,"Imagine if its ended right on the cusp at 549, the panic selling would be golden",hold,flip,False +519017,2025-01-24T10:25:54.400741Z,i think +400 dude this guy is on fire,hold,flip,False +514253,2024-12-05T08:21:47.210391Z,it's not that he's asleep. it is his most productive time. he's nocturnal. according to himself the earliest he goes to ,flip,flip,True +538215,2025-04-25T05:54:24.472441Z,even in his better weeks he did like 30 posts in the last 12 hours (just look up the average on musktracker). Now he wou,flip,flip,True +527180,2025-03-13T06:50:43.412011Z,"ok elon u can calm down, i knew u500 was cope but u dont have to blow off my position as well",hold,flip,False +515555,2024-12-20T16:16:47.607252Z,425 is not that far away for him,hold,flip,False +527180,2025-03-11T17:46:26.590163Z,Your loss of $77 could have bought you starbucks coffee for a month,flip,flip,True +539617,2025-04-30T19:04:24.694728Z,I believe its going to land there. On his usually most active day he did 15! and Today he did 6. So chances are very hig,flip,hold,False +519877,2025-01-28T18:29:05.265593Z,he's busy this week. he's still in Washington DC. he's locked in,flip,hold,False +529581,2025-03-28T15:08:59.762223Z,I downloaded the file he's last tweets total was on 496 which he replied with yup now he tweeted 3 more from that making,hold,hold,True +519017,2025-01-24T19:06:41.816082Z,Looks like a slow start into an unpredictable market. Good Luck to all of those that will choose the brackets I also ha,hold,hold,True +519017,2025-01-24T14:09:23.872103Z,I've already sold it.. so why tf am I trying to pump exactly? Can you explain that?,hold,hold,True +519017,2025-01-20T07:37:57.502714Z,300-324 and 325-349 still so cheap,hold,hold,True +523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",flip,hold,False +519877,2025-01-30T01:31:06.607054Z,He is busy with spainsat NG I mission launch. Hez gonna spam post launch of falcon,flip,flip,True +529581,2025-03-26T07:31:54.504708Z,lol under 400 has a real chance right now haha,flip,flip,True +519877,2025-01-27T10:09:52.868373Z,"People read into previous patterns like crazy. Coping beyond repair. He's clearly busy these days, but that's too much t",flip,flip,True +518120,2025-01-13T13:05:10.445881Z,Because the odds are undervalued.,hold,hold,True +519877,2025-01-29T17:27:45.810058Z,"elon, just chill man, take a nap, etc! and you've got work to do with DOGE : ) hehe!",flip,hold,False +519017,2025-01-24T00:58:25.474189Z,Less than 300 going up as he tweets LMFAO,flip,flip,True +514253,2024-12-05T16:32:07.625552Z,"we don't want him to be out of the cage for too long now, but his pace is pretty sexy rn ngl so we good",flip,hold,False +529581,2025-03-27T17:41:06.187629Z,where is elon right now. what time zone,hold,hold,True +539617,2025-05-01T17:33:48.466152Z,"Dude, believing and buying are two different things!",flip,flip,True +527180,2025-03-11T16:33:16.517518Z,"being tired is an argument for an increased number of tweets imo. At least judging from personal experience, it's when y",flip,flip,True +519017,2025-01-21T04:47:15.509925Z,i don't know how this market always keep surprising everyone xD,hold,hold,True +519017,2025-01-24T03:01:52.397924Z,"it's looking ugly, i wouldn't leave my chair if i were you",flip,flip,True +521117,2025-02-01T21:29:24.784491Z,reminder this week is trumps state of the union. elon will tweet like crazy and repost clips of it,flip,hold,False +519017,2025-01-24T10:41:36.400263Z,what if he never left bed at all,flip,flip,True +523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",flip,hold,False +519877,2025-01-26T19:41:26.983344Z,Remove the i from ican. Just a simple typo.,hold,hold,True +519877,2025-01-29T10:11:32.564744Z,"lets pray he slows tweeting down. i bet too much lol. yeah, my bad.",flip,flip,True +526076,2025-03-07T10:10:27.513378Z,"Am new here but have to say, the comment section here is the best!",hold,hold,True +526076,2025-03-06T07:34:09.245036Z,"If he is gonna spam like last launch, it gonna be crazy.",flip,flip,True +519017,2025-01-24T10:21:39.681533Z,he cant keep getting away with this.mp3,flip,flip,True +526076,2025-03-06T20:48:38.650835Z,Episode IV: A New Spammer Episode V: The Autist strikes back Episode VI: Return of Ketamine,hold,hold,True +527180,2025-03-12T13:43:07.889803Z,im just wondering that 525+ is 21 cents,hold,hold,True +529581,2025-03-28T14:50:46.202527Z,"LOL if it just money"" gift me instead of gifting the billionaires. need 1k$ to start trading that why am here lol",hold,hold,True +527180,2025-03-12T16:24:32.583833Z,"u70 tweets 2 days in row is severe cope, to think there is also a monday morning spam. even 525 + is on the table",hold,flip,False +538215,2025-04-25T05:54:24.472441Z,even in his better weeks he did like 30 posts in the last 12 hours (just look up the average on musktracker). Now he wou,flip,flip,True +523033,2025-02-14T15:48:08.828745Z,850-874 were getting a bit too cocky,hold,flip,False +514253,2024-12-03T01:18:22.456181Z,i already did and it was accurate,hold,hold,True +539617,2025-05-01T13:03:40.230278Z,hes active. Lets see how much he will post,flip,hold,False +529581,2025-03-25T21:51:37.850485Z,"but tbh you kinda pursuaded me, so i also bought your bracket",flip,hold,False +519017,2025-01-23T04:09:46.359676Z,"Your PNL is correlated to your IQ, Forrest.",hold,hold,True +519017,2025-01-23T08:24:54.608252Z,"Getting soft. The correct sentence should've been ""I don't like Jews"".",hold,flip,False +529581,2025-03-28T14:34:04.393204Z,HE JUST TO TWEETS 2 MORE FOR REST TO BE WINNING,hold,hold,True +518120,2025-01-17T08:06:29.092226Z,"82c on less than 450 is super expensive, there have been many fridays where he posted more than 30 times last few weeks",hold,flip,False +519877,2025-01-30T14:35:08.807111Z,Damn this guy is unpredictable,flip,hold,False +527180,2025-03-13T14:27:34.156398Z,but if his next morning spam is lackluster.,hold,hold,True +519877,2025-01-30T11:40:28.070913Z,so elon went to sleep 5hrs ago. in 1 hr he tweets again,flip,flip,True +519017,2025-01-24T16:11:38.495116Z,Elon scams this market every week gauranteed,hold,flip,False +519017,2025-01-24T04:54:51.038836Z,"It¡¯s 11:54pm in Dulles, Virginia where he¡¯s at right now. Probably gonna sleep and not tweet much until after the coun",hold,flip,False +527180,2025-03-10T10:12:00.793679Z,what's reward farm sorry not familiar with the term,hold,hold,True +521117,2025-02-01T14:10:15.522331Z,What made you decide that there would be +450 posts?,hold,hold,True +519877,2025-01-31T04:52:13.478866Z,"It's going to go over 275, isn't it?",hold,flip,False +519017,2025-01-24T07:42:04.479625Z,"Although, usual is 10 to 20 posts, so it's not crazy he will surpass 324 once he wakes up",flip,flip,True +529581,2025-03-28T15:08:13.709613Z,taking my time to read your comment is such life waste,hold,flip,False +519017,2025-01-23T04:24:57.252207Z,omg I'm so bad. I do kara-tay. A bit of boxing and grappling puts all martial artists to shame. I would make you beg for,hold,hold,True +514253,2024-12-05T16:01:02.882507Z,"less than 300 is so cooked, but i'm kinda scared it's gonna go past 324 and then I lose the house",flip,flip,True +527180,2025-03-07T17:45:25.699999Z,Who knows first time for me too,flip,hold,False +519877,2025-01-28T18:58:57.001632Z,That¡¯s a fun bet with 8 dollars brother chill down it¡¯s a loss but would be funny if they win,flip,hold,False +538215,2025-04-25T06:17:14.508395Z,Hopefully he went to sleep now,flip,hold,False +528110,2025-03-17T19:59:57.719406Z,he is not even going to make it in the 300s due to further slow downs. you uys will crawl here soon,hold,flip,False +521117,2025-02-04T15:25:33.311912Z,"Yea I was sarcastic, I feel like 99% probability for yes is really stretching it. He just needs to miss one day of tweet",hold,flip,False +519877,2025-01-31T02:56:25.983607Z,I'll never forget the time this rich motherfucker couldn't post 9 times Friday morning on a 400+ post week,hold,flip,False +519017,2025-01-24T17:01:26.938936Z,What time do they usually reset the week?,hold,hold,True +519877,2025-01-29T12:08:44.449489Z,"okay so he's sleeping right now. 2 days left. let's say he does 50 tweets today, and 50 tweets tomorrow (which he has no",flip,hold,False +518120,2025-01-13T16:34:51.940127Z,"For greedy people. Last week, I ended up losing quite a bit on the 2nd market, should've stayed at 500+ on the first and",flip,hold,False +519877,2025-01-29T14:07:14.601344Z,elon is going to give me a heart attack,flip,hold,False +527180,2025-03-11T19:01:37.078775Z,"It's true, this isn't an exact science. I think both statistics and behavioral science play a role in making the most we",hold,hold,True +529581,2025-03-26T22:03:47.097439Z,why you delete your message ? xD,flip,hold,False +529581,2025-03-28T16:48:28.171114Z,jesus christ please let me win once in my life,hold,hold,True +539617,2025-05-02T06:50:52.321095Z,don¡¯t panic. he will sleep within 1h,hold,hold,True +529581,2025-03-28T13:23:32.221523Z,NAH THANKS TO ELON FR HE CLUCHED,hold,flip,False +519877,2025-01-30T09:16:19.086289Z,Bro you bet on Rockets to win the Ring...,hold,hold,True +527180,2025-03-13T13:19:52.990474Z,This motherfucker will shitpost so much today that you will ask yourself why the richest man in the world is also the bi,hold,flip,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..89d06b077b6496c22fddb3922b081019e44eaea7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,196 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",flip,increase,False,True,117.72,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T00:30:32.718781Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,good for you... you can buy for cheap right?,flip,hold,False,True,18.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:45:34.023261Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,he didnt sleep all day LIKE MF what are you,decrease,increase,False,True,34.4913,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-17T01:42:56.696908Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,I will laugh if he post under 13 tweets utill 12pm tomorrow.,hold,decrease,False,True,228.7447,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T16:04:41.145667Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"shuu, pnl went from $1000 to $52",increase,decrease,False,True,1.038,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-24T20:39:09.957432Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,01.29.2025: Tesla Q4 Earnings Release - new announcements on autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. 01.31.2025: Europ,increase,increase,True,True,1388.88,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T08:26:54.213832Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,idk musk is slow af this time around,decrease,decrease,True,True,78.4949,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T20:52:32.847947Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,36 to go bros. get down on your knees and pray,decrease,increase,False,True,4746.5227,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T17:22:25.914227Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"it's all true, i found it myself",flip,hold,False,True,36.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T13:49:45.725135Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,6 tweets from getting blown away + 3h + launch in 10mins GET READY,hold,increase,False,True,22.8291,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T05:24:23.874815Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,there are 13 posts there lol. but people not seeing them might explain the issue,decrease,decrease,True,True,272.6265,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T17:35:49.035099Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,man prices are gonna be volatile the moment he finally post something again,hold,decrease,False,True,4.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T09:22:48.994058Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,you'Re right and I was stupid again hahaha. there are many empty rows. 109 it is.,increase,flip,False,True,99.3602,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T04:24:39.744987Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,u400 should sell. he is gonna spam,decrease,flip,False,True,5.7028,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T23:18:16.555229Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Elon have stopped using twitter. Not even a space x landing from outer space will change that.,decrease,increase,False,True,50.4733,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T14:29:13.158895Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,easiest money you'll make in 2 hours,increase,increase,True,True,4.7978,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T07:33:36.101938Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,it's a visual bug bc he converted. it never been at 96,hold,hold,True,True,3.4101,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T16:48:28.171114Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,jesus christ please let me win once in my life,hold,decrease,False,True,181.13,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T01:49:48.961762Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,The only thing worry me is SapceX launch tomorrow. His tweet numbers might increase drastically.,decrease,decrease,True,True,330.1533,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T14:19:34.869074Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"his average for the last week and past few days has been lower (lower than 70, currently 60). even if he does 70 on aver",flip,increase,False,True,12.8658,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-01T21:29:24.784491Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,reminder this week is trumps state of the union. elon will tweet like crazy and repost clips of it,decrease,increase,False,True,194.99,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T01:00:14.363727Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,all the top share holders are in lower 450. do yourself a favour and buy lower 450. easy 40%,decrease,increase,False,True,4.372,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T04:55:20.241961Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"With a day and a half left, under 400 looks like a good bet",decrease,increase,False,True,83.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:09:12.034786Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Im literally about to cause a scene, BRO WHY AND WHAT I AM SO MAD",increase,decrease,False,True,204.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T20:18:03.138429Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"welcome! Rule nr 1, don't listen to benny32 advices",hold,hold,True,True,48.66,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T13:23:42.215843Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"yes, keep counting on the onee time peak data :D",increase,increase,True,True,4.7978,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-28T15:59:56.425383Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"i mean call your mom, tell her you love her bro, before it's too late. Otherwise, suddenly your PNL will fall below $20 ",increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T07:52:45.594743Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,if you put a profile pic with your face you can scam some betas here for more than you would made in profit with your po,increase,hold,False,True,254.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:27:32.654557Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"300-324 gang going strong rn but guys he needs to chill a bit srsly, can go over easily now",flip,decrease,False,True,193.5615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T15:35:49.784555Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,i can't predict how crazy human being is,flip,decrease,False,True,22.561,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T09:49:38.925648Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,COPIUM THAT MOTHAFUCKA ONLY GOT 1 NIGHT SESSION AHEAD IT ENDS AT 12 PM FRIDAY NOT 12 AM,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.025,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T07:38:54.924159Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,nah hes going wild 2 tweets in 5 mins,increase,increase,True,True,420.84,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T15:25:03.254529Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,10 in 35 minutes? Totally possible,hold,increase,False,True,33.5073,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T05:06:11.584901Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"This guy trying to psyop people into selling, talking about 13 hidden posts that don't exist is really bothering",decrease,increase,False,True,97.594,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-02T15:59:40.187832Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,why did he only do one reply god dammit,hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:46:59.763622Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,he won't post much under 250 is a lock,flip,increase,False,True,549.1846,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T15:25:15.471916Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"c'mon 10 more tweet for 400, you can do it, Elon!",decrease,increase,False,True,10.2537,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-19T22:19:23.529687Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"yea fair, ultimately no one can tell with certainty, only use your own assumptions",hold,decrease,False,True,1.51,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",increase,increase,True,True,525.8138,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T05:02:12.173806Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"He already posted about illegals being detained, wokeism, some X add, Davos, Trump, SpaceX, Tesla... he EXHAUSTED each r",flip,flip,True,True,24.1647,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T13:46:47.497004Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,less than 400 will boost to 65cents within next half an hour,decrease,increase,False,True,655.0965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T18:13:37.518551Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,3 tweets and under 500 went from 28 to 23? this is stupid do yall want him to not post at all,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T06:16:55.314952Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,i'm all set for the ketamusk ride,increase,hold,False,True,43.6992,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T14:04:35.371294Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Elon posted too much even for the servers themselves ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,12.91,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-23T15:46:51.041916Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,"I think this tweet hasn't been counted: ""BREAKING: Grok 3 just got a MASSIVE upgrade - Memory, Studio & API unlocked. P",increase,increase,True,True,189.4898,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T02:14:44.894284Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"People realize, Elon is probably going to be sleeping for 1/3rd of the remaining time right? Why is 325-349 so insanely ",decrease,increase,False,True,56.53,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T00:45:27.346721Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,exactly 13 posts are missing. they are the ones between ''Orwellian....'' and ''Everyone knew...'' That's when the track,flip,decrease,False,True,773.7717,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T18:01:57.848742Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,HAve you still not noticed that the counter wasn'T working and the count hasn't been corrected yet? :),flip,flip,True,True,98.4402,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T04:05:57.941964Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Bahaha you literally have a 90 IQ if you actually think Israel will disappear of the map when the biggest Zionist is in ,hold,hold,True,True,32.0881,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T08:09:56.972119Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,its 3am for him. wha are the chances he reaches 475,decrease,decrease,True,True,18.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-08T02:33:44.557802Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"tip me and i¡¯ll give you profits, help me out",increase,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T06:47:54.807906Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"he's jerking off into a vial right now. His penis is deformed. He's only able to have kids via IVF, google it",hold,hold,True,True,251.5993,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T13:23:42.215843Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"yes, keep counting on the onee time peak data :D",increase,increase,True,True,4.7978,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T16:40:27.012722Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"Doubt he'll be more triggered than with the Gang rapes that happened the first time he went over 500, and he had a much ",increase,increase,True,True,1229.12,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:38:58.757091Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Not possible he whispered in my ear and told me good night,decrease,flip,False,True,34.49,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:28:00.423769Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,the dude is out of the cage it seems,flip,increase,False,True,193.5615,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T18:16:12.920033Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,counts are correct cross verified elon's main page and the exported data,increase,hold,False,True,73.0848,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T19:25:01.905862Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"why did you buy it for 15 cents? That price is nowhere near this price, i think thats the reason. Did you lose balance?",increase,decrease,False,True,5.729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T19:22:11.097112Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,why is under 500 dropping if the guy isn't posting?,hold,decrease,False,True,1521.53,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-02T22:29:49.911227Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,in a few hours the show begins. popcorn?,hold,increase,False,True,12.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T23:30:26.795634Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,they surely know :D the excel sheet has all posts,flip,hold,False,True,773.7717,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:01:02.882507Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"less than 300 is so cooked, but i'm kinda scared it's gonna go past 324 and then I lose the house",flip,decrease,False,True,193.5615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T00:05:49.143144Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"@Therealsmurf, RIP. Sorry for your loss brother",decrease,hold,False,True,1910.2187,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:22:59.181419Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,No way he does 550 he has to sleep...,flip,increase,False,True,269.887,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T18:18:04.792176Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,then you can't count. the excel sheet is clear,flip,decrease,False,True,235.6872,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T11:27:53.254131Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,With the current pace you literally can buy all 4 lower brackets (just to be sure) and that way buy a dollar for 63 cent,decrease,increase,False,True,12.91,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T12:51:45.979829Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,nah dude I am going to hold until the end,hold,hold,True,True,411.8266,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T15:54:37.361849Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"yeah but you cannot predict something like this, this is not science. he can go nuts and post 10 tweets in 2 minutes",decrease,decrease,True,True,4492.48,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T17:29:50.167083Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"elon, give me a tampon. because i am about to make a mess",decrease,increase,False,True,4492.48,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T05:54:24.472441Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,even in his better weeks he did like 30 posts in the last 12 hours (just look up the average on musktracker). Now he wou,flip,increase,False,True,596.625,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T03:59:26.730998Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Can someone explain to me who Benny is?,decrease,hold,False,True,128.4073,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T17:46:26.590163Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Your loss of $77 could have bought you starbucks coffee for a month,flip,decrease,False,True,1.03,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-14T20:15:33.319391Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"hello, u450 is gonna go up about 4c by tommorow morning, stay with me now",increase,hold,False,True,3.78,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T20:40:30.889477Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"-731. Yeah, I'm going to lose sleep at night over your comment.",decrease,decrease,True,True,17.42,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T00:45:55.060977Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,yesterday afternoon and evening,flip,hold,False,True,773.7717,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:13:47.656726Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"I hate all of you, fuck you all and have a terrible day",increase,decrease,False,True,204.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T14:14:32.437792Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,The launch went bye bye like a lil bird tweet tweet,hold,hold,True,True,22.473,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T11:40:28.070913Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,so elon went to sleep 5hrs ago. in 1 hr he tweets again,flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T14:30:25.552152Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Ok but lets agree that 550+ is sheer cope,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T19:32:22.817657Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Imagine buying yes on the lowest bracket,hold,flip,False,True,1098.04,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T01:21:16.152158Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,then you're blind or a liar. check the excel sheet on the tracker. where are his posts between the Orwelilian and the Ev,flip,decrease,False,True,773.7717,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T07:42:04.479625Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Although, usual is 10 to 20 posts, so it's not crazy he will surpass 324 once he wakes up",flip,decrease,False,True,24.1647,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T03:16:28.429149Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"Haha glad to hear you made it whole, i panicked and almost sold at the bottom. Everyone was wandering where you went.",decrease,hold,False,True,101.454,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T08:09:21.912302Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"I wouldn't think of it that wy otherwise you'll panic. it is 0, 0, 0, 8, 0, 0, 5...not costant :D",decrease,hold,False,True,835.4746,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T02:30:33.732007Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"The drop in net worth must be getting to him, boi¡¯s depressed",hold,decrease,False,True,187.2407,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-01-31T19:23:48.653812Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,I would price it at best 5-10c [nfa],hold,decrease,False,True,1.6835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T03:01:52.397924Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"it's looking ugly, i wouldn't leave my chair if i were you",flip,decrease,False,True,23.7083,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T08:06:35.576313Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,what time is he gonna wake up and fire off a couple hundred tweets?,flip,decrease,False,True,26.7924,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T03:16:28.429149Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"Haha glad to hear you made it whole, i panicked and almost sold at the bottom. Everyone was wandering where you went.",decrease,hold,False,True,101.454,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T23:22:45.775459Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,he's on boys GAMBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA,flip,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T10:48:23.961135Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"under 450 is undervalued, should be atleast 30",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T17:15:46.237934Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,does it make a difference? he is going to post 500+,decrease,flip,False,True,103.9907,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T09:41:59.535691Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"you are using a 2nd hand account bro, how about using an account with some cash",decrease,decrease,True,True,146.6597,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T06:17:14.508395Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,Hopefully he went to sleep now,flip,decrease,False,True,596.625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T07:34:09.245036Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"If he is gonna spam like last launch, it gonna be crazy.",flip,increase,False,True,1592.7805,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-11T12:32:31.176025Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"i know , that's why i adviced you to sell , you were very fine already and it was gonna go lower",flip,decrease,False,True,239.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:14:15.291856Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,omg he need to sleep or he is terminator,increase,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T16:16:13.810203Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,Andrew Tate will make more posts than this retard,decrease,flip,False,True,104.4735,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T01:31:06.607054Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,He is busy with spainsat NG I mission launch. Hez gonna spam post launch of falcon,hold,increase,False,True,553.12,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T16:44:18.128806Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"i just need 228 more tweets to win, come on elon",hold,decrease,False,True,371.168,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T15:25:58.895199Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,idk what people bidding 875-899 are doing,hold,decrease,False,True,7.1114,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T12:09:47.427137Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Elon has posted an average of 37.8 times per day this week, and he's entering his least active days of the week.",decrease,decrease,True,True,97.594,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T15:59:52.510463Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"No, based on his posts. As stated in the rules.",flip,hold,False,True,99.3602,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T14:47:09.721907Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Do you bet on this like every month lmao,decrease,decrease,True,True,2.2819,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T03:48:22.367914Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Get a good beauty sleep Mr Elon,hold,decrease,False,True,179.8829,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:32:07.625552Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"we don't want him to be out of the cage for too long now, but his pace is pretty sexy rn ngl so we good",flip,increase,False,True,193.5615,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T11:12:08.468023Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,he is tweeting incontrollably!,hold,increase,False,True,24.7694,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T13:42:04.180105Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,He's going to post about it tbf,hold,flip,False,True,22.473,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T07:36:46.521615Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Sleep well sweet Elon, we want you to be healthy ??",increase,decrease,False,True,181.4182,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T18:32:55.741246Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,of course he only bet a few bucks and it's not impossible that Elon decides to go nuts again :),flip,decrease,False,True,95.5758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:27:06.673836Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,It can also be some White House or government employee that knows he'll be busy in the next days,increase,decrease,False,True,321.9778,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:08:13.709613Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,taking my time to read your comment is such life waste,hold,decrease,False,True,5.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T12:55:45.730255Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"Oh well, free for him, but not for you ahahaha??",decrease,decrease,True,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T18:46:11.376587Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,I'm about to call elon and tell him to spam a little. stay tuned,decrease,flip,False,True,41.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T08:09:11.139921Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Yea just like an hour ago he tweeted like 15-20 in a matter of 20-30 mins,increase,increase,True,True,986.5438,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T17:51:40.618226Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,It makes me very sad to see so many fake bennys,increase,hold,False,True,14.6114,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T14:45:00.961065Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"well elon doesn't post much on fridays, so today we will see",flip,hold,False,True,708.0219,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T03:03:21.587695Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,i told u u450 would double. I have a model,increase,increase,True,True,109.9795,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T05:54:24.472441Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,even in his better weeks he did like 30 posts in the last 12 hours (just look up the average on musktracker). Now he wou,flip,increase,False,True,596.625,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-22T12:12:10.144049Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,"Come on, Elon, we missed you! :fire:",increase,hold,False,True,17.271,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T20:32:39.179528Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,I kind of want to YOLO on u450,increase,increase,True,True,617.4798,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T19:47:26.183422Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,I think there is a bug. I also can't see in my position anything that i've added or sold in the last 2 hours,increase,decrease,False,True,366.2721,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-02T19:38:08.945278Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,Tracker is slow to update. He already made more posts,decrease,increase,False,True,300.12,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T18:24:38.481659Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,bro the odds should have told you that there was something you didn't get right. replies do not count. there is a tracke,flip,decrease,False,True,95.5758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T07:10:26.652342Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"This market is so dead, no one is buying limit orders, everyone wants to lowball",hold,decrease,False,True,150.6729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-14T07:06:41.087363Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"Will keep the 400-449 shares just in case cause you never know. That said, 350-399 is probably the range to expect.",hold,decrease,False,True,121.25,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T06:05:59.497228Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,haha how many hours does he sleep on average?,increase,decrease,False,True,21.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T14:50:47.937666Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Real questions, why would someone not buy 500-524 at this price? lol It's almost a 2x fro free.",hold,increase,False,True,31.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T08:40:11.086437Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,he will tweet a lot during the starship launch,hold,flip,False,True,119.6,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T08:11:53.270217Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,he's awake and bulk replying right now. let's see whether he is too busy to post or whether there's a storm brewing up.,increase,hold,False,True,708.4673,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T00:58:25.474189Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Less than 300 going up as he tweets LMFAO,flip,decrease,False,True,4.7083,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T07:56:23.485383Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"There aren't really patterns. He had one week with over 650, and the one before was under 250, and the next one started ",decrease,decrease,True,True,251.8475,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T18:54:28.381537Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,Buy more no please and drop the price for yes,increase,decrease,False,True,450.1419,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T19:48:37.384756Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Not corrected yet. :D It's just Elon posting and your bracket might very well be hit. Just count the posts on the excel ,flip,hold,False,True,773.7717,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T10:29:08.887809Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Thanks for the cny money, Elon ??",hold,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T06:33:01.752742Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,I don't remember a slower start in the week since Christmas and DOGE week,decrease,decrease,True,True,369.9035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-27T08:53:16.825646Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I wonder what is benny's escape plan now,hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T22:50:30.636529Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,it shouldnt be possible though,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T01:15:36.112338Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Why are the rules vague? Why ''may'' X itself be used if it's not updating according to the rules. So it may be used and,flip,decrease,False,True,773.7717,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-20T09:40:12.997329Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,lets go Elon post a bit but dont overdo it brother,increase,decrease,False,True,8.3217,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-28T19:09:08.256588Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,so you're just lecturing two mentally retarded unemployed people? i like you dude!,increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T14:35:42.336532Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,I mean I knew it could get quite rough within this market but didn't expect him to cock tease me the entire week before ,decrease,increase,False,True,220.0842,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:21:39.681533Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,he cant keep getting away with this.mp3,flip,decrease,False,True,52.0471,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T07:26:37.666165Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,nope. if he either keeps posting as he did so far or starts pamping he will pass 300. only if he decides to drop to old ,increase,increase,True,True,708.4673,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T18:49:26.720064Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,You should have spread your bets. You're likely to get obliterated,hold,decrease,False,True,57.4192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-24T21:10:36.302848Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I¡¯d rather hope that Starlink shares will be available someday.,increase,hold,False,True,1388.88,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T16:03:20.859005Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"@shu, duck guy. lol. bro said i didn¡¯t have a brain for telling him to hedge",increase,hold,False,True,1.038,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T16:49:09.259879Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"i had another acc, in total lost 50$ till now",hold,decrease,False,True,8.9175,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T08:06:35.576313Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,what time is he gonna wake up and fire off a couple hundred tweets?,flip,decrease,False,True,26.7924,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T19:35:47.209773Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,buy under 500 just to get sure he is bussy at starbase,increase,increase,True,True,13.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:41:36.400263Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,what if he never left bed at all,flip,flip,True,True,31.8855,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-03T15:56:27.826526Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,300-324 is the best option. buy now,decrease,decrease,True,True,12.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-21T05:09:33.912204Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,that is also my expectations. 300 will be reached in about 36 hours,hold,increase,False,True,131.9341,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",flip,increase,False,True,117.72,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T22:03:47.097439Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,why you delete your message ? xD,increase,hold,False,True,30.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T00:59:20.513602Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,he's not feeling the love tonight. Usually he would do 3-5 posts in rapid succession.,hold,decrease,False,True,32.0881,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:24:16.829774Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Should be 335, fuk the counter",decrease,flip,False,True,2090.9903,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-02T17:32:34.108903Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"80 posts on average this week so far :) multiplying by 7 gives us 560. Even when he makes 100 a couple of times, it is s",hold,increase,False,True,30.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T16:18:07.794221Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"It should be already 99, is the winning bracket",increase,increase,True,True,450.1419,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-19T15:56:34.880265Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,where is the source code of this xtracker?,hold,hold,True,True,49.5791,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T14:19:26.378654Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,@elontesla please buy all my 450-499 shares thank you,increase,hold,False,True,1559.2822,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T11:45:21.213641Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"I wont because i am Most likely in the right track, 80 Posts thenlast four days and you gamble your money on 170 the nex",decrease,increase,False,True,353.0636,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-28T15:59:44.590328Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"it's funny to see how the person who said that unemployed benny has a lot of time to comment, leaves comments under ever",increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T13:55:04.052974Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"hey guys, should i sell my under 400?",hold,decrease,False,True,7.795,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:58:57.001632Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,That¡¯s a fun bet with 8 dollars brother chill down it¡¯s a loss but would be funny if they win,flip,decrease,False,True,550.1846,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T20:57:20.619761Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,aint no way polymarket predicted that he might go below 450 so they put extra brackets,increase,decrease,False,True,12.67,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:29:15.483339Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,in few minutes go goes to sleep,increase,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T21:28:31.605248Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,bro you just lost halve of your portfolio,increase,decrease,False,True,30.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T22:50:11.659046Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,i just hope he doesnt pass 525,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T04:34:57.595992Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,He has 3 meetings today usually 1-2hrs each so he probably won¡¯t post much,hold,decrease,False,True,10.1175,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T15:55:26.818841Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,Its 873 but tracker show 871 !!!! This is scam !!!,hold,flip,False,True,724.6952,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-23T20:26:20.325577Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"this is very much possible, because you ""predict"" hundert things but apparently only bet on few of them XD",hold,hold,True,True,46.62,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T23:41:30.453118Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"if you dont believe me try betting on the crypto markets, you will soon get my point",decrease,hold,False,True,62.2784,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T00:28:49.290033Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,tbf I counted it on the sheet now and the missing posts indeed are missing. that's quite lame and can ber very relevant ,flip,decrease,False,True,773.7717,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T16:33:16.517518Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"being tired is an argument for an increased number of tweets imo. At least judging from personal experience, it's when y",flip,increase,False,True,2.07,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-11T12:11:11.608645Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,How do u get chatgpt to do that,increase,hold,False,True,1842.7683,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T19:19:58.294105Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,will he make it to 350 by the end of the day?,decrease,decrease,True,True,2126.7599,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-02T16:04:46.797115Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,Lol just now he tweets as this is done lol,hold,hold,True,True,60.1524,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T09:19:12.324379Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,I NEED CONCERT MONEY SO DONT JUDGE IF YOU SEE ME DOING EXACTLY JUST THAT??,decrease,decrease,True,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T15:00:29.795172Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,this retard is keeping reply rather than tweet,decrease,hold,False,True,5.3828,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T16:27:27.726077Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"So he is at under 70 tweets a day this week. Even if he does 74 tweets every day (which was this week ATH), he still lan",decrease,increase,False,True,12.91,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T11:03:17.148204Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Min (337): This represents the earliest possible total of tweets by the end of the week. (Since Elon has already tweeted,hold,decrease,False,True,18.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T16:26:58.610783Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,People forget that earlier this year he went 289.,increase,hold,False,True,1229.12,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T02:39:23.265125Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"if he doesnt post 17 more times in a range of 3 hours, its a win",decrease,decrease,True,True,95.234,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:51:30.499402Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"He's just too busy. Last week he posted 50 a day, the week before 60 a day. And he's posting 20 a day this week. My gues",hold,increase,False,True,151.2264,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T18:30:57.235986Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"exactly my thought process, he had 1 good week with almost 900 and people forgot how much 500 actually is",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T16:05:57.569989Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,woah what the hell just happened? i only left for one hour,increase,decrease,False,True,49.07,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T15:45:14.842741Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Intresting postion do you make profit IF it fall it falls in to this bracket?,increase,hold,False,True,1.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:49:36.569719Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,look at my profit I am doing ok,flip,decrease,False,True,549.1846,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T07:10:21.193638Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,At this pace hes likely to post under 300,decrease,increase,False,True,203.5304,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:22:59.181419Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,No way he does 550 he has to sleep...,flip,increase,False,True,269.887,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:36:36.411354Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"this can't be a mistake right? Someone can't fat finger 12k with 2 different orders, right? You can't just fomo 12k",increase,decrease,False,True,525.8138,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T08:06:49.044435Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Imagine if its ended right on the cusp at 549, the panic selling would be golden",hold,hold,True,True,55.9105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T11:02:23.275812Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,and that¡¯s to finish with 12 hours to spare,decrease,increase,False,True,420.84,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-29T17:01:36.820527Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"Where can I find this beautiful ""Musktracker""? Cant find anything",increase,hold,False,True,32.09,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..38b3c51f91873d0454200346b45391345682c2a0 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +528110,2025-03-17T11:57:55.786215Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"should i sell my higher brackets and put the money into the other brackets or just hold until market ends, i spent $100 ",increase,decrease,False,True,14.646,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:22:59.181419Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,No way he does 550 he has to sleep...,flip,increase,False,True,269.887,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T08:11:53.270217Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,he's awake and bulk replying right now. let's see whether he is too busy to post or whether there's a storm brewing up.,flip,hold,False,True,708.4673,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T21:16:02.545918Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"There¡¯s no confidence involved in gambling, it¡¯s all pure speculation.",hold,decrease,False,True,1.9749,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T22:12:43.831382Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,even andrew tate posted more tweets than elon musk what a week huh?,decrease,hold,False,True,427.7665,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T06:39:56.352582Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"Bro done having orgy with Indian pm, now back to spaming, this autistic kid sucks",decrease,increase,False,True,3.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T13:11:18.965681Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,Thanks for the info. I had no idea that the pace is calculated since the beginning of the market. This is only another e,increase,decrease,False,True,450.1419,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T21:48:05.174199Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"Yeah very likely, i'm keeping the rest in case that's where he lands",hold,decrease,False,True,57.4192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T04:34:57.595992Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,He has 3 meetings today usually 1-2hrs each so he probably won¡¯t post much,hold,decrease,False,True,10.1175,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:27:32.654557Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"300-324 gang going strong rn but guys he needs to chill a bit srsly, can go over easily now",flip,decrease,False,True,193.5615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T20:31:54.980131Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Ive finally figured it all out! The winning Strategy! Years of research but now I Know the secret Formula! Just do the ,increase,flip,False,True,30.6,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T21:49:26.283054Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Were you broke even before you started gambling? You barely funded your account,hold,decrease,False,True,57.4192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T11:04:44.416119Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Max (550): This is the maximum possible total if Elon has a very active final stretch to the week. (A surge in tweets to,hold,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-24T21:10:36.302848Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I¡¯d rather hope that Starlink shares will be available someday.,increase,hold,False,True,1388.88,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T08:08:36.878814Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,no way he can survive 24 hours without internet attention,hold,increase,False,True,891.236,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-02T18:41:28.878958Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Exactly, significantly. And we are betting on a short time period outcome and a couple of unusual events (underperfomanc",hold,decrease,False,True,30.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T16:19:28.314634Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,I really appreciate it man. ya I'm always right,increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:22:57.491524Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Insiders aka Elon's friends are all richer than everyone on PM. They don't need to bet on this market.,hold,hold,True,True,6.4918,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-02T10:53:17.083098Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yes, i do agree that i'm a retard betting on Kanye. Will never do it again",increase,hold,False,True,334.0043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:46:27.689443Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"of course i cope, i stand to make 3.5k :)). I don't know man. I guess we will have a better view tomorrow",increase,decrease,False,True,525.8138,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T08:37:04.519938Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"Elon will control the market to the extreme, showing gamblers how ruthless he can be. Guess my moves, ants!",decrease,increase,False,True,36.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T17:46:26.590163Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Your loss of $77 could have bought you starbucks coffee for a month,flip,decrease,False,True,1.03,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:05:16.907351Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,this market is so exhausting to hold :(,decrease,decrease,True,True,5.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T12:54:38.448608Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,He is at mar'a'lago and he'll very likely spend time with the president and his guests. Then he'll fly back in Washingto,increase,decrease,False,True,372.6875,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:16:58.743014Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,for once I decide to be within the norms,increase,decrease,False,True,61.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T03:53:47.972292Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Hmmm, he might do that on his sleepwalking journey",increase,decrease,False,True,11.6471,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T17:35:49.035099Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,man prices are gonna be volatile the moment he finally post something again,increase,decrease,False,True,4.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T10:03:58.883596Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,I honestly think there might be a good chance this thing ends with like... 301-305 lol it's gonna be close for the under,increase,decrease,False,True,4.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-19T22:01:17.258899Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"i am assuming he will be extra busy tmr with trump inauguration, so only 4 days and hence 60",decrease,decrease,True,True,1.51,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T18:31:19.477486Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"im down some cash, i made 3 accs which got banned saying us people arent allowed to trade but in reality i live somewher",decrease,decrease,True,True,1.49,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:41:36.400263Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,what if he never left bed at all,flip,flip,True,True,31.8855,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T05:54:24.472441Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,even in his better weeks he did like 30 posts in the last 12 hours (just look up the average on musktracker). Now he wou,flip,increase,False,True,596.625,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T09:40:13.083181Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Midnight spam is bullish for lower brackets,increase,increase,True,True,372.1568,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-11T12:11:11.608645Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,How do u get chatgpt to do that,increase,hold,False,True,1842.7683,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T09:21:36.880545Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"you willl regret yours, elon has no chill",hold,increase,False,True,97.47,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T14:27:13.170684Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i need 10k to pay tiny house, so hope y make money wish me luck plssss",decrease,decrease,True,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T00:45:27.346721Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,exactly 13 posts are missing. they are the ones between ''Orwellian....'' and ''Everyone knew...'' That's when the track,decrease,decrease,True,True,773.7717,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T19:02:29.199647Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Dont think AfD will win. Germany is just too messed up rn. They need 5 more years of cultural enrichment,decrease,hold,False,True,11.15,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T10:12:00.793679Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,what's reward farm sorry not familiar with the term,hold,hold,True,True,3.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T08:54:26.925857Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"he is tired because of the full day he had yesterday, he will sleep until at least 10'o clock, and then he'll have a mee",increase,increase,True,True,254.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-01T20:45:55.729548Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Staking up NOs for lower brackets on weekends, since elon's not usually active",increase,increase,True,True,334.0043,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-27T19:25:37.328403Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,wym? no for refund? cause if prediction was for until friday and friday data is missing. the prediction itself should b,hold,decrease,False,True,5.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-11T08:17:14.354589Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you can sell buddy while you can,flip,decrease,False,True,239.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T07:34:09.245036Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"If he is gonna spam like last launch, it gonna be crazy.",flip,increase,False,True,1592.7805,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T21:55:36.301435Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Oh I am sorry, am I supposed to put 10k dollars on that bet? Maybe then its gonna make you happy",decrease,decrease,True,True,11.15,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T07:41:33.833947Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"looking like the k-hole has kicked off, time for sleep.",hold,decrease,False,True,55.9105,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T07:26:37.666165Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,nope. if he either keeps posting as he did so far or starts pamping he will pass 300. only if he decides to drop to old ,flip,increase,False,True,708.4673,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:22:59.181419Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,No way he does 550 he has to sleep...,flip,increase,False,True,269.887,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T06:48:06.666558Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Based on the analysis of 6,093 posts from April 18, 2024, to December 3, 2024:",decrease,increase,False,True,804.9,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T19:29:57.665995Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"Quick, drop under 500. He is clearly going to spam",increase,flip,False,True,89.0901,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-21T17:38:08.730913Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"it really depends. If he posts 100 or more today, over 400 is also possible",decrease,decrease,True,True,131.9341,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T08:06:49.044435Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Imagine if its ended right on the cusp at 549, the panic selling would be golden",hold,hold,True,True,55.9105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T07:57:41.350377Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,103. Two replies on the main feed.,flip,hold,False,True,708.4673,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T11:34:05.864683Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,You are just searching for a huge win because you are addictet but you will Cash Out sooner or later,decrease,decrease,True,True,353.0636,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T12:59:40.620301Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Can't believe it. His batteries were empty,decrease,decrease,True,True,251.8475,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-08T02:35:25.908066Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,how do tips work? can i have some uwu,increase,hold,False,True,20.02,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-01T20:09:04.228403Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,back at it again in the elon musk tweeting roulette,decrease,hold,False,True,155.66,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T21:28:31.605248Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,bro you just lost halve of your portfolio,increase,decrease,False,True,30.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T05:31:17.268083Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,He is even posting the same video second time in a day. He truly activated the spam mode now,hold,increase,False,True,9.267,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T01:06:57.408982Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,and to think u400 was trading at 3.5c a couple days ago,increase,increase,True,True,20.161,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T00:01:09.709209Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Turingtracker will be looking Like Allan lichtman,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:13:47.656726Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"I hate all of you, fuck you all and have a terrible day",increase,decrease,False,True,204.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T18:21:37.474823Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Keep buying Less than 250 and wait until he drops a bomb tonight before bed lmfao ??,flip,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-01T17:33:48.466152Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"Dude, believing and buying are two different things!",flip,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T08:21:47.210391Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,it's not that he's asleep. it is his most productive time. he's nocturnal. according to himself the earliest he goes to ,flip,increase,False,True,835.4746,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T07:10:26.652342Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"This market is so dead, no one is buying limit orders, everyone wants to lowball",decrease,decrease,True,True,150.6729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T15:35:49.784555Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,i can't predict how crazy human being is,flip,decrease,False,True,22.561,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T21:13:58.949818Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Saw your PNL. Now I know I'm going to lose my bet.,hold,decrease,False,True,32.0881,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:14:15.291856Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,omg he need to sleep or he is terminator,increase,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T13:44:14.442786Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,nhaa don't say that please im broke if i lose 100,decrease,decrease,True,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T19:25:01.905862Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"why did you buy it for 15 cents? That price is nowhere near this price, i think thats the reason. Did you lose balance?",increase,decrease,False,True,5.729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T12:18:55.656792Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,3 days left. Currently 92 posts a day on average. 92*3 = 276. 276 + 328 (current post amount) = 604. The question is onl,decrease,increase,False,True,30.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T05:20:22.213718Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,okokok elon calm down a bit Xd,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:32:07.625552Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"we don't want him to be out of the cage for too long now, but his pace is pretty sexy rn ngl so we good",flip,increase,False,True,193.5615,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T08:37:00.699128Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,You coward just sold his 400-424 position :D,decrease,decrease,True,True,655.0965,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T20:56:03.982546Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,lil bro u got $50 u aint makin it out the hood regardless,decrease,hold,False,True,940.79,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T08:06:35.576313Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,what time is he gonna wake up and fire off a couple hundred tweets?,flip,decrease,False,True,26.7924,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T13:39:27.843306Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,this mf really made 40+ in 1 hour,decrease,increase,False,True,31.7816,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T12:04:22.283307Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,425-449 yes is so overpriced..,decrease,decrease,True,True,168.2022,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T12:08:51.440514Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"For 400 + to stay in the game he needs to be at 200 posts after 4 hours. And that is for 400+ to just stay in the game, ",decrease,decrease,True,True,200.835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:58:57.001632Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,That¡¯s a fun bet with 8 dollars brother chill down it¡¯s a loss but would be funny if they win,flip,decrease,False,True,550.1846,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T14:29:13.158895Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,easiest money you'll make in 2 hours,increase,increase,True,True,4.7978,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T07:42:04.479625Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Although, usual is 10 to 20 posts, so it's not crazy he will surpass 324 once he wakes up",flip,decrease,False,True,24.1647,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T06:37:36.091364Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,You vermin raped black people so much that the average African American has 24% European ancestry. You whites are MONSTE,hold,hold,True,True,251.5993,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T20:37:15.335049Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Do yourself a favor and activate the `holders` to not see the comment from the poor people that are speaking from the si,hold,hold,True,True,99.7432,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T21:18:48.927895Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,u400 could be up to 50c if he has a quite night,increase,increase,True,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T19:01:37.078775Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"It's true, this isn't an exact science. I think both statistics and behavioral science play a role in making the most we",hold,hold,True,True,6.4918,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:49:36.569719Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,look at my profit I am doing ok,flip,decrease,False,True,549.1846,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-19T17:47:46.529911Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"Regression towards the mean, you can't expect him to post all day. Sometimes he spams hard and is quiet for the rest of ",hold,decrease,False,True,1249.76,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-24T20:39:09.957432Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,01.29.2025: Tesla Q4 Earnings Release - new announcements on autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. 01.31.2025: Europ,increase,increase,True,True,1388.88,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T04:05:05.739363Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,I just need 42 more tweets elon please,flip,decrease,False,True,12325.6427,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T18:51:48.926906Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,he has still 22 hours to do 500 tweets.,decrease,decrease,True,True,41.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T14:14:06.605151Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"y see top holders a lot of people ""holding"" a lot of bets at the same time, how they make money, y mean is worth it at l",decrease,decrease,True,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T14:35:24.580097Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"if u have that much in an account, you think I would believe you buying 471 of 15c shares?",flip,decrease,False,True,146.6597,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T22:03:47.097439Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,why you delete your message ? xD,flip,hold,False,True,30.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:19:21.534911Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,They destroyed Europe post-Cold War. America's been ravaged by them since the time of Abe Lincoln. Guess who wanted the ,hold,hold,True,True,90.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T17:05:12.126404Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I know exactly how you feel...????,hold,decrease,False,True,126.6575,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T15:58:46.092135Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,just you need to sell before he wake up on last day,flip,decrease,False,True,48.8122,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T10:09:52.868373Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"People read into previous patterns like crazy. Coping beyond repair. He's clearly busy these days, but that's too much t",flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T12:21:47.261438Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"If he will post slighty above the average, same 15 posts a day, we are at 649.",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T11:40:28.070913Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,so elon went to sleep 5hrs ago. in 1 hr he tweets again,flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:21:39.681533Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,he cant keep getting away with this.mp3,flip,decrease,False,True,52.0471,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T14:48:28.707673Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"so ig this is 80c angle since he is already done with the ""spam"" for next few hours",decrease,hold,False,True,200.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:13:54.417753Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,My last hopes are on 250-275 otherwise I will not be providing liquidity to polymarket anymore.,decrease,decrease,True,True,180.609,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T18:32:55.741246Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,of course he only bet a few bucks and it's not impossible that Elon decides to go nuts again :),decrease,decrease,True,True,95.5758,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-11T09:27:56.360254Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,your money will go towards my new ketamine pills,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.5979,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T08:09:21.912302Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"I wouldn't think of it that wy otherwise you'll panic. it is 0, 0, 0, 8, 0, 0, 5...not costant :D",flip,hold,False,True,835.4746,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T10:29:08.887809Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Thanks for the cny money, Elon ??",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-08T16:59:38.394376Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,It's unlikely but its value will continue to rise so think about it.,decrease,decrease,True,True,81.25,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T08:03:43.765437Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,I expect him to tweet more about JFK and Terrorism acts when he gets up,decrease,increase,False,True,906.3108,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T06:47:54.807906Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"he's jerking off into a vial right now. His penis is deformed. He's only able to have kids via IVF, google it",hold,hold,True,True,251.5993,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T16:16:13.810203Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,Andrew Tate will make more posts than this retard,flip,flip,True,True,104.4735,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:21:52.022256Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Filthy Jews like Soros and other members of the WEF only have one thing on their minds, and that's subverting traditiona",hold,hold,True,True,90.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T13:13:41.990674Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"if theres both bad wednesday and bad thursday ofc under 500 will win, but ure gambling on 2 bad days. Much more of a ris",hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-23T15:46:51.041916Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,"I think this tweet hasn't been counted: ""BREAKING: Grok 3 just got a MASSIVE upgrade - Memory, Studio & API unlocked. P",increase,increase,True,True,189.4898,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T08:57:05.920454Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,so no more tweets looks promising for us,decrease,increase,False,True,9.449,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:39:49.811967Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,The u450 book order looks very funny. You can make it 60c. with 1k,increase,increase,True,True,525.8138,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T10:09:39.079009Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,told you guys. Im the player 456,flip,increase,False,True,36.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T10:24:09.973645Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,The speed run will be a fact. the cope of the 400 424 ++ brackets will not amount to anything,hold,increase,False,True,0.97,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T17:27:45.810058Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"elon, just chill man, take a nap, etc! and you've got work to do with DOGE : ) hehe!",flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-11T12:32:31.176025Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"i know , that's why i adviced you to sell , you were very fine already and it was gonna go lower",flip,decrease,False,True,239.99,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-12T11:17:42.678086Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"So much liquidity, proper market makers on here now",decrease,hold,False,True,19.5586,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:43:24.599624Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Never said it was necessarily a beginner.,hold,hold,True,True,6.4918,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-18T22:37:22.834811Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,Is it profitable buying all positions? why did u do that,hold,decrease,False,True,33.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T05:02:12.173806Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"He already posted about illegals being detained, wokeism, some X add, Davos, Trump, SpaceX, Tesla... he EXHAUSTED each r",flip,flip,True,True,24.1647,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T07:12:22.017987Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,he is at 102. it was just the tracker not tracking.,flip,increase,False,True,708.4673,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T13:13:06.999076Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,AM WINNING NOW THANK GOD AND ELON,hold,increase,False,True,5.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T05:24:23.874815Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,there are 13 posts there lol. but people not seeing them might explain the issue,decrease,decrease,True,True,272.6265,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T03:46:54.897567Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Good night elmo, hope you don't sleepwalk",increase,decrease,False,True,11.6471,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T10:13:01.760073Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,thanks in advance for the money you'll give me for free,flip,decrease,False,True,36.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T16:48:34.362209Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,I am 68 years old. I would do cartwheels if I could.,hold,hold,True,True,3654.79,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T00:30:32.718781Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,good for you... you can buy for cheap right?,flip,hold,False,True,18.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:09:12.034786Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Im literally about to cause a scene, BRO WHY AND WHAT I AM SO MAD",increase,decrease,False,True,204.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T06:32:07.855526Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Well, he made some people happy. Maybe he wanted to donate them. I don't know what kind of money you need to have to sta",hold,hold,True,True,733.8764,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T14:45:00.961065Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"well elon doesn't post much on fridays, so today we will see",flip,hold,False,True,708.0219,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T20:37:01.044162Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,...I feel we are pretty solid now. Elon will not reach to 450 this time,decrease,increase,False,True,26.1712,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T05:46:52.206835Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,U 400 is 57 per day. He only needs one spam day to take off passed that,flip,increase,False,True,80.3007,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:19:01.174914Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,this mf got no family or a job to care about? he just post and scroll kids on tiktok dont even do that much,decrease,decrease,True,True,34.4913,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T02:52:37.358003Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"He's got Sam Altman in his sights right now, this is 100% the beginning of a twitter tirade",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T07:57:28.930498Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Let's find out a way to mess with the boys. Maybe we can make them lose money,decrease,decrease,True,True,251.8475,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T11:38:01.060731Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"its almost 7AM in Virgina where Elon is. He isn't going to bed, he just woke up early. He'll definitely post 6 more time",hold,increase,False,True,2.9726,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:52:45.936305Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Your only saying that because you have bet on the u250,hold,decrease,False,True,870.87,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T20:05:57.631035Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"No, the price is reasonable as the pace is right in the middle of the 550-599 bracket.",hold,hold,True,True,55.4304,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T03:55:27.193718Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Not really lol. He's at 101 or something. Seems people are watching the tracker instead of his actual posts. Explains th,flip,increase,False,True,708.4673,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",increase,increase,True,True,525.8138,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T23:22:45.775459Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,he's on boys GAMBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA,flip,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T14:10:35.814104Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,My pnl for a day is higher than your all time traded volume,flip,hold,False,True,146.6597,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-03T09:09:45.013262Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"it's true, and as usual, it will go back to living there and will never reach 450+",decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T09:45:41.822597Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,half way an only 140 posts so its not 50-50 :D,increase,increase,True,True,101.3666,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T04:08:32.332894Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Nah, he won't pass 450 before the last 24h",increase,flip,False,True,11.6471,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T10:41:36.182529Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,209 tweets in next 5 days - cmon elon :D,hold,increase,False,True,2199.5761,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T14:29:59.514007Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"the people in the comments are trying to lie to you about the tracker being wrong, you can count the tweets yourself, as",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T13:23:42.215843Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"yes, keep counting on the onee time peak data :D",increase,increase,True,True,4.7978,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:28:00.423769Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,the dude is out of the cage it seems,flip,increase,False,True,193.5615,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T15:04:34.969939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,bcs of elon he can do everythings,flip,hold,False,True,48.8122,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T06:05:59.497228Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,haha how many hours does he sleep on average?,increase,decrease,False,True,21.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T14:11:53.534333Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,buy yes for multiple brackets close to each other with the same amount and hope one of them wins obviously the profit of,hold,hold,True,True,7.795,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T07:53:17.233188Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I think he will crash and sleep 7-8 hours now,decrease,increase,False,True,4900.981,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T08:29:58.864511Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Man I lost all my gains from last week to this,flip,decrease,False,True,3.8768,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T10:21:08.965616Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i really dont like the weekly crypto market, its where i got the negative pnl. Elon tweets markets are less stressful an",increase,hold,False,True,23.1737,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T06:32:07.855526Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Well, he made some people happy. Maybe he wanted to donate them. I don't know what kind of money you need to have to sta",hold,hold,True,True,733.8764,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T06:45:16.203526Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,nobody in me replies has said anything in the past 12 hours. maybe dem lil bois will up their lil size since they seem t,decrease,decrease,True,True,102.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T10:38:17.460884Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Never play with cash you ain't ready to kiss goodbye.,hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T11:11:51.788573Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,he literally took a break 3-4 hours then came back just an hour ago,hold,increase,False,True,22.8291,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T18:37:53.692546Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,149 is going to be very interesting,increase,decrease,False,True,120.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T20:32:39.179528Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,I kind of want to YOLO on u450,increase,increase,True,True,617.4798,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-08T12:26:45.679613Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Well, if you are so bad at math and basic probabilities, ok :)",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T14:19:26.378654Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,@elontesla please buy all my 450-499 shares thank you,increase,hold,False,True,1559.2822,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:08:13.709613Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,taking my time to read your comment is such life waste,hold,decrease,False,True,5.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T05:45:37.178508Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,How many tweets has he now?Is the tracker working?,increase,decrease,False,True,120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T08:06:35.576313Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,what time is he gonna wake up and fire off a couple hundred tweets?,flip,decrease,False,True,26.7924,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T15:35:41.566854Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,no spam today? this guy has us on the most twisting roller coaster ever,increase,decrease,False,True,16.0026,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T07:04:06.889255Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,up to Elon's whim and health. since he's in the habit of posting on mornings now and since he still does have two mornin,flip,hold,False,True,177.2934,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T11:36:24.936068Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,"i agree, look at the volume difference, smth is up",increase,increase,True,True,9.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T07:06:59.591312Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Ssshh Mr Elon just sleep soundly and ready to post on Sunday,hold,hold,True,True,179.8829,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T19:22:11.097112Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,why is under 500 dropping if the guy isn't posting?,hold,decrease,False,True,1521.53,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T08:26:54.213832Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,idk musk is slow af this time around,decrease,decrease,True,True,78.4949,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T05:54:24.472441Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,even in his better weeks he did like 30 posts in the last 12 hours (just look up the average on musktracker). Now he wou,flip,increase,False,True,596.625,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T12:52:22.243533Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,This market literally moves for no reason... like Elon Musk isn't even on twitter rn,hold,decrease,False,True,22.473,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T05:40:11.154919Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"I know, just not a very believable one.",hold,decrease,False,True,90.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T16:33:16.517518Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"being tired is an argument for an increased number of tweets imo. At least judging from personal experience, it's when y",flip,increase,False,True,2.07,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T20:07:16.457671Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"It's old news, not the first time Grok says that",increase,hold,False,True,240.9339,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T11:41:49.148191Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,I don¡¯t actually care it¡¯ll anyway end up 850-874,decrease,decrease,True,True,42.9554,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T03:59:26.730998Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Can someone explain to me who Benny is?,decrease,hold,False,True,128.4073,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-17T08:06:29.092226Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"82c on less than 450 is super expensive, there have been many fridays where he posted more than 30 times last few weeks",hold,decrease,False,True,3.1305,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T05:28:10.517999Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"It only takes 29 tweets to beat 549 ""yes"" holders. I Told you guys",decrease,increase,False,True,1987.6946,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:48:22.122167Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,you argument for pump and dump is invalid. There is not enough liquidity in this market for that. The price needs to be ,increase,hold,False,True,525.8138,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T22:43:44.554394Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,COULD YOU DO THIS SHIT FOR LYFE?,decrease,increase,False,True,139.4517,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T05:29:05.734575Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Why aren't you white vermin commenting?,increase,hold,False,True,201.5993,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-02T10:44:27.874329Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,how is it going with yours? Dump that 2k shares my boy till it's not late,increase,decrease,False,True,334.0043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T02:14:44.894284Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"People realize, Elon is probably going to be sleeping for 1/3rd of the remaining time right? Why is 325-349 so insanely ",decrease,increase,False,True,56.53,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T11:07:39.596701Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"for the highest likelihood profit outcome, YiLongMa suggests the following; buy equal shares of brackets between 425-525",hold,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T14:35:08.807111Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Damn this guy is unpredictable,flip,decrease,False,True,338.57,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T15:25:58.895199Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,idk what people bidding 875-899 are doing,hold,decrease,False,True,7.1114,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T13:14:51.659219Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"Not, pretty sure some money is better than no money",increase,decrease,False,True,180.2839,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:01:17.117582Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Remember the first 3 days of this week he tweeted like 5 times in 12 hours. There's always hope.,decrease,decrease,True,True,180.609,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T03:01:52.397924Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"it's looking ugly, i wouldn't leave my chair if i were you",flip,decrease,False,True,23.7083,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T10:10:06.706673Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"its a common rule, this is player vs player, people will do and say anything to trick and use them as exit Liquidity",increase,decrease,False,True,23.1737,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T06:55:48.046956Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,I don't think they are counted,hold,decrease,False,True,3.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T00:57:06.411125Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Yall jts working just buy under 300 n ur good itll end on my bet ??,decrease,increase,False,True,203.5304,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c8b3b9b99c8598db83f8b542bf9c2f4063fde4fa --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +514253,2024-12-03T17:28:49.175557Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,should i sell my 325-349 shares ?,decrease,decrease,True,True,38.2163,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T14:27:34.156398Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,but if his next morning spam is lackluster.,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T08:09:21.912302Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"I wouldn't think of it that wy otherwise you'll panic. it is 0, 0, 0, 8, 0, 0, 5...not costant :D",flip,hold,False,True,835.4746,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T14:01:21.032937Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"People who actually 100% believe he's sleeping are retarded, but even if he wasn't, he's busy with a launch, he's not so",hold,increase,False,True,22.473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T15:03:17.319653Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,thanks. do you always buy out shares that are close to 0?,increase,hold,False,True,25.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T17:05:24.886675Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,He has heavy meetings. Hope to see 2 150+ tweets days back to back,increase,decrease,False,True,234.7984,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T11:36:20.025524Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Man this dude is so unpredictable it¡¯s great!,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T18:37:53.692546Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,149 is going to be very interesting,flip,decrease,False,True,120.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T19:19:58.294105Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,will he make it to 350 by the end of the day?,increase,decrease,False,True,2126.7599,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:22:59.181419Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,No way he does 550 he has to sleep...,flip,increase,False,True,269.887,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T02:56:25.983607Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I'll never forget the time this rich motherfucker couldn't post 9 times Friday morning on a 400+ post week,hold,increase,False,True,90.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-20T07:37:57.502714Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,300-324 and 325-349 still so cheap,hold,increase,False,True,17.34,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T04:07:58.023448Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"it's probably going to be low this week, 550 and above will get fucked",increase,decrease,False,True,71.2407,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T19:01:37.078775Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"It's true, this isn't an exact science. I think both statistics and behavioral science play a role in making the most we",hold,hold,True,True,6.4918,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T16:48:28.171114Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,jesus christ please let me win once in my life,hold,decrease,False,True,181.13,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:25:54.400741Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,i think +400 dude this guy is on fire,hold,flip,False,True,400.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:09:12.034786Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Im literally about to cause a scene, BRO WHY AND WHAT I AM SO MAD",increase,decrease,False,True,204.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-04T15:25:33.311912Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"Yea I was sarcastic, I feel like 99% probability for yes is really stretching it. He just needs to miss one day of tweet",hold,decrease,False,True,66.1138,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T07:31:54.504708Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,lol under 400 has a real chance right now haha,flip,decrease,False,True,35.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T18:06:59.437041Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"here¡¯s where things get crazy. I was on x, looking through some elon reposts about nigerian sperm evolution in japan, a",decrease,hold,False,True,41.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T19:05:56.553068Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"if tomorrow he'll be as busy as today, u450 is mostly locked",increase,increase,True,True,617.4798,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T09:45:41.822597Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,half way an only 140 posts so its not 50-50 :D,increase,increase,True,True,101.3666,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T22:33:25.331407Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"He's no longer spamming, just going 1 post at a time. Think it'll be 400-425, unfortunately.",decrease,decrease,True,True,17.42,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T15:03:17.319653Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,thanks. do you always buy out shares that are close to 0?,increase,hold,False,True,25.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T06:05:59.497228Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,haha how many hours does he sleep on average?,increase,decrease,False,True,21.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-10T23:33:48.076587Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"definitely undervalued, highly doubt 500+ is going to repeat again, this was an exceptional week",increase,increase,True,True,26.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:40:09.018398Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,should i ape 20k into negative lower brackets?,increase,decrease,False,True,1567.0043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T08:21:47.210391Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,it's not that he's asleep. it is his most productive time. he's nocturnal. according to himself the earliest he goes to ,flip,increase,False,True,835.4746,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:13:47.656726Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"I hate all of you, fuck you all and have a terrible day",increase,decrease,False,True,204.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T18:11:14.691838Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,425-449 copefully. Under 400 is looking more and more unlikely.,decrease,flip,False,True,17.42,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T01:54:12.556214Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Is the range of 300-324 considered undervalued?,decrease,decrease,True,True,804.9,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-01T11:51:57.441386Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,yeah and also that some tweets or even most consist of replies which wont even count,flip,decrease,False,True,120.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-12T06:55:29.305869Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,That's a good time to be laying in bed and tweet all day :)),increase,increase,True,True,5622.4683,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T14:21:21.346784Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Thanks Elon, now I can fly to KL fo tind my lost kitty",increase,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T03:44:54.210869Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"as long as he tweets less then 11 times in the next 13 hours, under 250 should be set.",decrease,increase,False,True,180.609,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T01:18:22.456181Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,i already did and it was accurate,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T21:17:34.743002Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"600-649 looks reasonable, but 4 days to go though the odds are at 25% already DD",increase,decrease,False,True,2126.7599,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T04:55:20.241961Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"With a day and a half left, under 400 looks like a good bet",decrease,increase,False,True,83.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:10:27.513378Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Am new here but have to say, the comment section here is the best!",hold,hold,True,True,55.9105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T12:11:26.790656Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,- a man who put in $150 and lost $120,decrease,decrease,True,True,72.3597,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-21T04:14:06.787947Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Honestly I would no be surprise if he reaches 400+,increase,increase,True,True,128.111,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T04:09:46.359676Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Your PNL is correlated to your IQ, Forrest.",hold,decrease,False,True,32.0881,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T07:34:09.245036Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"If he is gonna spam like last launch, it gonna be crazy.",flip,increase,False,True,1592.7805,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T09:15:58.347034Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,I feel like selling early 5$ for 33$ ain't bad. potential win is 190$,decrease,decrease,True,True,9.449,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T10:11:32.564744Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"lets pray he slows tweeting down. i bet too much lol. yeah, my bad.",flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T13:05:10.445881Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,Because the odds are undervalued.,hold,hold,True,True,9.9,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T21:54:06.153416Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,I'll be amazed if he manages to get 301 in the next 3.5 days.,decrease,increase,False,True,147.2546,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T16:33:16.517518Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"being tired is an argument for an increased number of tweets imo. At least judging from personal experience, it's when y",flip,increase,False,True,2.07,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:58:57.001632Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,That¡¯s a fun bet with 8 dollars brother chill down it¡¯s a loss but would be funny if they win,flip,decrease,False,True,550.1846,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T23:59:46.979267Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,well he posted quite a bit :D its just that it was replies,decrease,hold,False,True,200.835,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T03:50:45.493431Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"you both have the same bet, yet both don't want the same outcome.. I never understand you degenerates",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T07:36:46.521615Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Sleep well sweet Elon, we want you to be healthy ??",increase,decrease,False,True,181.4182,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T01:31:06.607054Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,He is busy with spainsat NG I mission launch. Hez gonna spam post launch of falcon,flip,increase,False,True,553.12,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T15:03:12.759846Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Where is the spam right now? Not even 50 posts, he needs 100 more :D",decrease,increase,False,True,201.1826,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T13:00:11.768314Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he made 15+ in last 30 min. yes he can make 25 in 3 hours,decrease,increase,False,True,31.7816,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T18:07:04.823626Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,as long as today is under 100 we are fine,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-24T07:10:23.364018Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,down like the pants you dream of?,decrease,decrease,True,True,46.62,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-01T04:30:33.966885Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"If anyone donates any amount, I will release this week¡¯s predictions. In the previous two cycles, I made accurate predi",increase,hold,False,True,372.8,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T14:09:23.872103Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,I've already sold it.. so why tf am I trying to pump exactly? Can you explain that?,hold,decrease,False,True,22.473,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T10:37:17.930801Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,Pretty sure we will see a sub 400 result. At YES 70% a bit undervalued currently.,hold,increase,False,True,411.8266,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T17:51:40.618226Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,It makes me very sad to see so many fake bennys,increase,hold,False,True,14.6114,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T08:24:16.994988Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"My copium says that the spam of yesterday was because of his interview. Since he posted everything about that, maybe he'",increase,decrease,False,True,365.2968,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T07:04:06.889255Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,up to Elon's whim and health. since he's in the habit of posting on mornings now and since he still does have two mornin,flip,hold,False,True,177.2934,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T14:03:13.983298Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Chat should I diamond hands or sell for a profit,decrease,decrease,True,True,27.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:49:36.569719Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,look at my profit I am doing ok,flip,decrease,False,True,549.1846,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T04:05:05.739363Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,I just need 42 more tweets elon please,flip,decrease,False,True,12325.6427,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T14:29:13.158895Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,easiest money you'll make in 2 hours,increase,increase,True,True,4.7978,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T13:43:07.889803Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,im just wondering that 525+ is 21 cents,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-02T18:41:28.878958Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Exactly, significantly. And we are betting on a short time period outcome and a couple of unusual events (underperfomanc",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",flip,increase,False,True,117.72,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:46:27.689443Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"of course i cope, i stand to make 3.5k :)). I don't know man. I guess we will have a better view tomorrow",increase,decrease,False,True,525.8138,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T11:41:08.693604Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,how do you know he's in virgina,decrease,hold,False,True,108.763,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T11:40:28.070913Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,so elon went to sleep 5hrs ago. in 1 hr he tweets again,flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T08:53:56.503421Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,its almost 4:00 for him why isn't he sleeping:D,decrease,decrease,True,True,168.2022,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-21T04:47:15.509925Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,i don't know how this market always keep surprising everyone xD,hold,hold,True,True,17.34,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-01T20:09:57.659376Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Watch him not tweet for two days, to then post 200 times in 1 day",decrease,decrease,True,True,155.66,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,decrease,increase,False,True,4.0583,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T04:16:34.905928Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,lol it was looking like an easy win earlier today,flip,decrease,False,True,12325.6427,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T22:35:22.999133Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Wait i just noticed the reply 28 mins ago..,decrease,decrease,True,True,200.835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-14T20:15:33.319391Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"hello, u450 is gonna go up about 4c by tommorow morning, stay with me now",increase,hold,False,True,3.78,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-25T21:51:37.850485Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"but tbh you kinda pursuaded me, so i also bought your bracket",flip,increase,False,True,35.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T23:41:30.453118Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"if you dont believe me try betting on the crypto markets, you will soon get my point",decrease,hold,False,True,62.2784,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T16:34:51.940127Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"For greedy people. Last week, I ended up losing quite a bit on the 2nd market, should've stayed at 500+ on the first and",flip,decrease,False,True,121.25,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T19:59:57.719406Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,he is not even going to make it in the 300s due to further slow downs. you uys will crawl here soon,hold,increase,False,True,0.97,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T10:57:27.834496Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,i think he means that it's 2.25 days,increase,decrease,False,True,25.1,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T17:01:26.938936Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,What time do they usually reset the week?,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T08:24:54.608252Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Getting soft. The correct sentence should've been ""I don't like Jews"".",hold,hold,True,True,32.0881,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T20:31:54.980131Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Ive finally figured it all out! The winning Strategy! Years of research but now I Know the secret Formula! Just do the ,flip,flip,True,True,30.6,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-12T13:29:43.490694Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"No, all tweets were counted not only 12 hours of the first day.",increase,decrease,False,True,3.729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T10:36:01.397282Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Dont get why these odds are 50/50,decrease,decrease,True,True,155.42,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T13:34:12.141591Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Why you are so passive agress man,flip,decrease,False,True,69.0048,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-13T10:11:35.967467Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,I hope he breaks 1000 tweets record,decrease,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T05:54:24.472441Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,even in his better weeks he did like 30 posts in the last 12 hours (just look up the average on musktracker). Now he wou,flip,increase,False,True,596.625,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:49:37.365968Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,[(449-287)/69.25]*168=393. So he'd have to post at that rate for the remaining 2 something days for U450 to hit. I don't,hold,increase,False,True,6.4918,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T04:24:57.252207Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,omg I'm so bad. I do kara-tay. A bit of boxing and grappling puts all martial artists to shame. I would make you beg for,hold,hold,True,True,32.0881,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:21:39.681533Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,he cant keep getting away with this.mp3,flip,decrease,False,True,52.0471,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-01T14:10:15.522331Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,What made you decide that there would be +450 posts?,hold,decrease,False,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T04:15:25.895837Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"it is over, thanks for playing",decrease,hold,False,True,6.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T17:46:26.590163Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Your loss of $77 could have bought you starbucks coffee for a month,flip,decrease,False,True,1.03,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T21:28:31.605248Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,bro you just lost halve of your portfolio,flip,decrease,False,True,30.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:32:07.625552Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"we don't want him to be out of the cage for too long now, but his pace is pretty sexy rn ngl so we good",flip,increase,False,True,193.5615,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T07:42:04.479625Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Although, usual is 10 to 20 posts, so it's not crazy he will surpass 324 once he wakes up",flip,decrease,False,True,24.1647,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T00:55:59.809885Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"yeah, well I guess we'll see if something crazy happens tomorrow for him to tweet out like crazy",decrease,decrease,True,True,164.3152,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T15:56:32.034791Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"its over, the launch is over, he overslept",decrease,decrease,True,True,463.9595,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:28:00.423769Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,the dude is out of the cage it seems,flip,increase,False,True,193.5615,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T10:13:36.890464Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"40 hours or so. Then he'll need to do 350 in 3 days. Which he may do, assuming he has nothing else to do and has a lot o",decrease,decrease,True,True,648.3883,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T17:11:01.616461Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,are these 10k here in room with us?,decrease,hold,False,True,450.1419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T03:59:35.429054Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Ain¡¯t nobody keeps up with what he posts¡­ and he probably realized it. Quality posts over quantity posts, smart move. ",decrease,increase,False,True,134.3702,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T06:42:49.833346Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,so if he does 75 the next 2 days. u400 loses. interesting,increase,decrease,False,True,1.038,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T13:23:55.199777Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,3 tweets under 1 mins... but no count here... it should be 147,decrease,decrease,True,True,8.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T06:44:29.685511Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"first 3,5 days 153 posts - and they surely will add those 13...would be grotesque if not - so the other 3,5 days need on",flip,flip,True,True,272.6265,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T19:06:41.816082Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Looks like a slow start into an unpredictable market. Good Luck to all of those that will choose the brackets I also ha,hold,hold,True,True,12.4092,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T15:58:12.541138Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"just make orders at like 4-8c for stuff, usually they go up at some point and someone actually buys at that price lol",increase,hold,False,True,37.6243,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T21:38:20.241513Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yeah, for some reason I can't respond to any of the gerontophile's posts.",hold,hold,True,True,55.4304,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T11:36:41.006944Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"@Therealsmurf, losing $2.2k on a single market is the most retarded thing you said? DDD",decrease,decrease,True,True,1567.0043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T04:54:51.038836Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"It¡¯s 11:54pm in Dulles, Virginia where he¡¯s at right now. Probably gonna sleep and not tweet much until after the coun",hold,decrease,False,True,0.9736,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T17:22:25.914227Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"it's all true, i found it myself",increase,hold,False,True,36.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T11:05:41.946602Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,i think 399 posts with 1 more post in last minute,flip,flip,True,True,23.3363,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:08:13.709613Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,taking my time to read your comment is such life waste,hold,decrease,False,True,5.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:29:05.265593Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,he's busy this week. he's still in Washington DC. he's locked in,flip,increase,False,True,52.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T22:54:21.517168Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,dont worry guys. everything is under control,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T05:54:24.472441Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,even in his better weeks he did like 30 posts in the last 12 hours (just look up the average on musktracker). Now he wou,flip,increase,False,True,596.625,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T08:06:49.044435Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Imagine if its ended right on the cusp at 549, the panic selling would be golden",hold,hold,True,True,55.9105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-01T17:33:48.466152Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"Dude, believing and buying are two different things!",flip,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T16:24:32.583833Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"u70 tweets 2 days in row is severe cope, to think there is also a monday morning spam. even 525 + is on the table",hold,flip,False,True,45.6192,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T06:17:14.508395Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,Hopefully he went to sleep now,flip,decrease,False,True,596.625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:52:13.478866Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"It's going to go over 275, isn't it?",hold,flip,False,True,90.5,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:46:27.689443Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"of course i cope, i stand to make 3.5k :)). I don't know man. I guess we will have a better view tomorrow",increase,decrease,False,True,525.8138,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:27:32.654557Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"300-324 gang going strong rn but guys he needs to chill a bit srsly, can go over easily now",flip,decrease,False,True,193.5615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T07:12:22.017987Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,he is at 102. it was just the tracker not tracking.,decrease,increase,False,True,708.4673,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T14:34:04.393204Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,HE JUST TO TWEETS 2 MORE FOR REST TO BE WINNING,hold,increase,False,True,5.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T19:04:24.694728Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,I believe its going to land there. On his usually most active day he did 15! and Today he did 6. So chances are very hig,flip,increase,False,True,120.89,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T13:19:17.569597Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Is he still in Washington DC? Has Trump adopted him?,increase,decrease,False,True,180.2839,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T16:19:28.314634Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,I really appreciate it man. ya I'm always right,increase,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T14:50:46.202527Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"LOL if it just money"" gift me instead of gifting the billionaires. need 1k$ to start trading that why am here lol",hold,hold,True,True,5.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-01T13:03:40.230278Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,hes active. Lets see how much he will post,flip,hold,False,True,120.89,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-24T07:10:23.364018Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,down like the pants you dream of?,decrease,decrease,True,True,46.62,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-01T21:29:24.784491Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,reminder this week is trumps state of the union. elon will tweet like crazy and repost clips of it,flip,increase,False,True,194.99,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T07:57:41.350377Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,103. Two replies on the main feed.,decrease,hold,False,True,708.4673,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T20:50:29.823632Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Even if he ends today at 220, he would have to tweet out over 60 tomorrow, just to have a chance of it being over 300.",decrease,increase,False,True,164.3152,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T17:27:45.810058Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"elon, just chill man, take a nap, etc! and you've got work to do with DOGE : ) hehe!",flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T06:22:09.234749Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Historically, the number of posts on Thursdays has always been higher than on Wednesdays. Don¡¯t worry",hold,hold,True,True,699.2,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T19:41:26.983344Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Remove the i from ican. Just a simple typo.,hold,hold,True,True,27.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T14:15:01.351494Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"that's science for him tho, past performance ""always"" predict future. Lets see",increase,increase,True,True,69.0048,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T10:09:52.868373Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"People read into previous patterns like crazy. Coping beyond repair. He's clearly busy these days, but that's too much t",flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T06:50:43.412011Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"ok elon u can calm down, i knew u500 was cope but u dont have to blow off my position as well",hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T00:58:25.474189Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Less than 300 going up as he tweets LMFAO,flip,decrease,False,True,4.7083,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-24T12:21:31.324105Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"dude, you literally wrote me about the pants and foaming XD you don't even need to say it about yourself, you are either",decrease,hold,False,True,46.62,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T20:22:52.505356Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Is not easy, he is the guy so.. maybe in 1 day can post 60 or 70 so calm down and pray haha",increase,decrease,False,True,97.98,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T08:11:05.707957Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"you are so stupid, that it hurts me. It happened many times in the past to finish under 450 when he was busy in DC",increase,increase,True,True,485.3693,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:51:55.311176Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,there's no a lot of liquidity though :(((,increase,decrease,False,True,1567.0043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T15:56:46.900832Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,I guess he is starting to slow down,hold,decrease,False,True,21.9133,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",flip,increase,False,True,117.72,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-27T17:41:06.187629Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,where is elon right now. what time zone,hold,decrease,False,True,4.2865,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T06:50:08.638036Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,first night Elon is spamming in a long time. u400 will crash soon.,increase,increase,True,True,1.038,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T03:01:52.397924Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"it's looking ugly, i wouldn't leave my chair if i were you",flip,decrease,False,True,23.7083,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-03T16:25:02.660574Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,"ppl switch fast lol, im going to be patience tho",decrease,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T13:23:32.221523Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,NAH THANKS TO ELON FR HE CLUCHED,hold,increase,False,True,5.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:41:36.400263Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,what if he never left bed at all,flip,flip,True,True,31.8855,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T15:19:29.018722Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Its a 7 day market with 3 whole days left. Watch it drop by 10-15 percent next time Elon makes a few posts,increase,decrease,False,True,5.4615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T16:11:38.495116Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Elon scams this market every week gauranteed,hold,decrease,False,True,1.9749,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T15:48:08.828745Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,850-874 were getting a bit too cocky,hold,decrease,False,True,7.1114,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T11:02:14.759153Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Good morning mr Musk. Early start to bang 62 tweets out today (already got 7),decrease,increase,False,True,420.84,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-19T17:18:52.355833Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"If this is to be my final stand, so be it.",hold,decrease,False,True,1249.76,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T14:19:26.378654Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,@elontesla please buy all my 450-499 shares thank you,increase,hold,False,True,1559.2822,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T13:50:47.243233Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,elon is active or not i just check 4/5 weeks ago and holy is unpredictable as fuc*,decrease,decrease,True,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T06:58:12.974662Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"if he doesn't post for another 24 hours, the required peace to reach 500 will be 87 per day",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-28T17:51:27.781194Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"yep, as expected, the argumentation is over",increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T14:35:08.807111Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Damn this guy is unpredictable,flip,decrease,False,True,338.57,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-20T09:40:12.997329Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,lets go Elon post a bit but dont overdo it brother,increase,decrease,False,True,8.3217,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T16:16:47.607252Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,425 is not that far away for him,hold,decrease,False,True,52.8,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T02:49:54.853742Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Maybe his ketamine dealer is on vacation?,increase,decrease,False,True,1.924,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-02T06:50:52.321095Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,don¡¯t panic. he will sleep within 1h,hold,decrease,False,True,69.51,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T12:08:44.449489Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"okay so he's sleeping right now. 2 days left. let's say he does 50 tweets today, and 50 tweets tomorrow (which he has no",flip,increase,False,True,708.0219,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T09:16:19.086289Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Bro you bet on Rockets to win the Ring...,hold,decrease,False,True,179.8829,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T15:20:42.396795Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"""Grrrr the richest man in the world is not tweeting as much as I thought. Im loosing my money. This is all Elon's fault,",increase,decrease,False,True,5.4615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T11:02:36.067779Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"if we look at his current pace, this is what the data suggests, (prediction using math and statistics based on probabili",decrease,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:08:59.762223Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I downloaded the file he's last tweets total was on 496 which he replied with yup now he tweeted 3 more from that making,hold,increase,False,True,5.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T10:12:00.793679Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,what's reward farm sorry not familiar with the term,hold,hold,True,True,3.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-07T17:45:25.699999Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Who knows first time for me too,flip,hold,False,True,2.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:01:02.882507Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"less than 300 is so cooked, but i'm kinda scared it's gonna go past 324 and then I lose the house",flip,decrease,False,True,193.5615,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T19:25:01.905862Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"why did you buy it for 15 cents? That price is nowhere near this price, i think thats the reason. Did you lose balance?",increase,decrease,False,True,5.729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T08:17:10.495741Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,I think he fished it out of the bin,decrease,decrease,True,True,44.02,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T03:09:44.218711Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,from what im reading you might be worse,decrease,decrease,True,True,4128.8912,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T13:19:52.990474Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,This motherfucker will shitpost so much today that you will ask yourself why the richest man in the world is also the bi,hold,increase,False,True,716.1444,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T19:08:41.975055Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"weird pricing of the brackets, the market thinks that if he'll do over 450, he'll do at least 475",increase,decrease,False,True,617.4798,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T23:18:34.219292Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,world twitter day is March 21st but nice try,increase,decrease,False,True,148.7332,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T14:27:13.170684Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i need 10k to pay tiny house, so hope y make money wish me luck plssss",decrease,decrease,True,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T12:22:38.565215Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"maybe, but it's clearly a bad one, since most of the NO holders have negative PNL",decrease,decrease,True,True,661.8665,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-24T07:55:31.894071Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Sleep well, Elon, we don't need to exaggerate, 500 would be a perfect spot to land on.",decrease,decrease,True,True,46.62,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T20:48:38.650835Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Episode IV: A New Spammer Episode V: The Autist strikes back Episode VI: Return of Ketamine,hold,hold,True,True,55.4304,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T06:23:53.636613Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,he will never reach 500+ for the third time in a row,increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T20:07:16.457671Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"It's old news, not the first time Grok says that",increase,hold,False,True,240.9339,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T22:03:47.097439Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,why you delete your message ? xD,flip,hold,False,True,30.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T07:02:20.497248Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,I have been wondering how u499 is still in play since 2 days ago tbh XDD,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:23:05.860673Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,this mf didnt even sleep yet go to sleep,decrease,increase,False,True,34.4913,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T14:07:14.601344Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,elon is going to give me a heart attack,flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:43:35.642891Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"seems like a perfect time, however, $20k under a risk to make 10-15% might not be reasonable",increase,decrease,False,True,1567.0043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-17T08:06:29.092226Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"82c on less than 450 is super expensive, there have been many fridays where he posted more than 30 times last few weeks",hold,decrease,False,True,3.1305,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T10:21:08.965616Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i really dont like the weekly crypto market, its where i got the negative pnl. Elon tweets markets are less stressful an",decrease,hold,False,True,23.1737,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4d6af22d510e77121e4b23c6fe8ab11d2fd53549 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +523033,2025-02-14T15:35:49.784555Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,i can't predict how crazy human being is,flip,decrease,False,True,22.561,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T14:50:01.293274Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Elon knows about this market and is trolling lol,increase,increase,True,True,204.01,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T05:37:59.823517Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,He has to go to sleep you white retards,hold,decrease,False,True,251.5993,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T15:41:19.928386Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,He is in Washington drinking Coffee in the Oval Office with the president. Maybe he isn't even allowed to have his phone,decrease,decrease,True,True,251.8475,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T10:40:14.971883Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,shut up you have a negative pnl,hold,decrease,False,True,36.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:49:36.569719Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,look at my profit I am doing ok,flip,decrease,False,True,549.1846,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T00:45:55.060977Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,yesterday afternoon and evening,flip,hold,False,True,773.7717,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T16:26:58.610783Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,People forget that earlier this year he went 289.,increase,hold,False,True,1229.12,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T12:55:45.730255Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"Oh well, free for him, but not for you ahahaha??",decrease,decrease,True,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,decrease,decrease,True,True,54.668,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T02:58:57.970027Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"If you spam ""C"" your pc will crash :)",decrease,hold,False,True,180.609,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:47:59.572188Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,[(449-287)/69.25]*168=393. So he'd have to post at that rate for the remaining 2 something days for U450 to hit. If you ,hold,increase,False,True,6.4918,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T11:02:23.275812Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,and that¡¯s to finish with 12 hours to spare,increase,increase,True,True,420.84,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T06:29:57.752046Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,oh right my bad he didnt make a single market order,hold,hold,True,True,45.6192,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:51:55.311176Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,there's no a lot of liquidity though :(((,increase,decrease,False,True,1567.0043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:58:57.001632Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,That¡¯s a fun bet with 8 dollars brother chill down it¡¯s a loss but would be funny if they win,flip,decrease,False,True,550.1846,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T17:33:35.144828Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,cuz not a lot of liquidity to eat up,increase,hold,False,True,1876.7599,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T05:50:19.300211Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Not good if he¡¯s still awake as he hasn¡¯t tweeted in over an hour,increase,decrease,False,True,420.84,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-02-02T21:10:05.673521Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,look at last week before syaing that,increase,decrease,False,True,1.1514,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:06:41.817613Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Im about to cause a scene, BRO WHAT",increase,decrease,False,True,204.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T11:04:20.547509Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Q3 (510): This represents a higher-end range, accounting for a possible increase in tweets later in the week. (If Elon t",hold,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-11T06:35:25.633415Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"yeah every week will be above 600, why don't you bet on it?",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-12T15:01:11.763309Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,That feeling when knee surgery is tomorrow ??,hold,decrease,False,True,3.729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T08:11:53.270217Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,he's awake and bulk replying right now. let's see whether he is too busy to post or whether there's a storm brewing up.,flip,hold,False,True,708.4673,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T08:06:35.576313Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,what time is he gonna wake up and fire off a couple hundred tweets?,flip,decrease,False,True,26.7924,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T00:20:06.691923Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"this is really impressive, that's like more than 10000% in just six months",decrease,decrease,True,True,101.454,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T18:42:30.539394Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,Can you drop YES under 500 at 18? I want a better entry price,increase,decrease,False,True,450.1419,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T14:45:00.961065Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"well elon doesn't post much on fridays, so today we will see",flip,hold,False,True,708.0219,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T07:26:06.421158Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,2.6 tweets per hour for the next couple of days. seems like a no brainer,hold,increase,False,True,611.12,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:45:34.023261Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,he didnt sleep all day LIKE MF what are you,decrease,increase,False,True,34.4913,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T02:48:34.342186Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,FUCK ELON MUSK. FUCK TRUMP. FUCK ALL YOU NAZI MOTHERFUCKERS. YOU ARE ALL VERMIN. DISGUSTING COLONIZERS,increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-08T17:56:29.953265Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,You need to have money to make money,increase,decrease,False,True,312.4035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T02:25:06.815724Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"yes, but he may post more tomorrow",decrease,hold,False,True,83.0699,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T17:22:25.914227Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"it's all true, i found it myself",hold,hold,True,True,36.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-14T20:15:33.319391Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"hello, u450 is gonna go up about 4c by tommorow morning, stay with me now",increase,hold,False,True,3.78,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T14:50:15.251159Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,there will still be a night and morning :D,flip,hold,False,True,609.32,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T19:32:10.657866Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"exactly, sellers want to ask for 7c higher than the highest bid, and if they don't get their way they'll make you wait f",hold,decrease,False,True,57.4192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T11:02:14.759153Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Good morning mr Musk. Early start to bang 62 tweets out today (already got 7),increase,increase,True,True,420.84,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T19:31:04.002845Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"GUYS DO NOT BUY RIGHT NOW! ANY TRADES THAT WILL GO THROUGH, YOU WILL NOT RECEIVE. ITS A COMMON BUG, BUT IT'S HAPPENING N",increase,decrease,False,True,5.729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T07:12:22.017987Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,he is at 102. it was just the tracker not tracking.,flip,increase,False,True,708.4673,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T00:30:32.718781Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,good for you... you can buy for cheap right?,flip,hold,False,True,18.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T21:38:41.418226Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"Holy moly what have you done, if one's correct do you still have profit?",increase,decrease,False,True,5.729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T17:19:11.668546Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Pump it up You got to pump it up Don't you know, pump it up",hold,increase,False,True,4492.48,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T22:54:21.517168Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,dont worry guys. everything is under control,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:10:27.513378Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Am new here but have to say, the comment section here is the best!",hold,hold,True,True,55.9105,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-18T20:14:47.497064Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,ye ima hold for a bit and then decide,decrease,hold,False,True,17.16,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T13:45:48.306946Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"people are starting to see, that only two days left and 400+ is not happening for sure:)",decrease,increase,False,True,655.0965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T08:30:50.879314Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"Lol, people fail to understand the addiction Elon has on X. If he has the time, he'll do 150 in a day.",increase,increase,True,True,240.9339,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T20:52:32.847947Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,36 to go bros. get down on your knees and pray,decrease,increase,False,True,4746.5227,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T10:48:27.479661Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,everything that is a positive pnl,decrease,hold,False,True,653.7883,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:14:15.291856Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,omg he need to sleep or he is terminator,increase,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:11:17.329891Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,your one of them yourself lol,hold,hold,True,True,5.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T05:02:12.173806Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"He already posted about illegals being detained, wokeism, some X add, Davos, Trump, SpaceX, Tesla... he EXHAUSTED each r",flip,flip,True,True,24.1647,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T11:03:07.558881Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"usually 6 hours, sometimes 4 or 5. Today he slept for 3 hours and has been posting for an hour",decrease,decrease,True,True,87.16,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-02T06:05:07.590264Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i lost about 1.5k on a single market. That doesn't count,increase,decrease,False,True,334.0043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T13:01:11.940806Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Maybe, but it isn't common for him tweet 6 times in 1 hour during the day, he tweets the most at night",hold,increase,False,True,22.473,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T11:03:39.030845Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Q1 (420): This is an estimate of a lower range for the total tweets, considering a consistent or slightly increased pace",hold,decrease,False,True,18.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T12:59:40.620301Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Can't believe it. His batteries were empty,decrease,decrease,True,True,251.8475,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T03:08:58.888202Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I truly hate this rich autist; from that disgraceful attempt at a sieg heil to creating toaster cars that are at risk of,hold,decrease,False,True,90.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T23:30:26.795634Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,they surely know :D the excel sheet has all posts,flip,hold,False,True,773.7717,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T14:58:08.747884Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,what the total so far? is it still 96?,hold,hold,True,True,5.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T08:04:01.543966Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"We are all living in the best era, where people around the world put 2 mill dollar on a Billionaire's X post, proud to b",hold,hold,True,True,179.8829,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T05:47:39.865476Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,bro please hedge. you lost $1000 yesterday. why do you keep going all in?,decrease,decrease,True,True,54.668,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T21:18:48.927895Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,u400 could be up to 50c if he has a quite night,increase,increase,True,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T15:13:57.044755Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"So under 300, and friday will be even less, so easy money",increase,increase,True,True,201.1826,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T12:38:48.364759Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"haha its great, thanks for laughs!!! :D",decrease,hold,False,True,655.0965,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T01:15:36.112338Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Why are the rules vague? Why ''may'' X itself be used if it's not updating according to the rules. So it may be used and,flip,decrease,False,True,773.7717,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T10:14:04.087551Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,u just barely made profit and ur about to squander it all away lmao,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.025,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T12:54:38.448608Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,He is at mar'a'lago and he'll very likely spend time with the president and his guests. Then he'll fly back in Washingto,decrease,decrease,True,True,372.6875,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-21T17:38:08.730913Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"it really depends. If he posts 100 or more today, over 400 is also possible",decrease,decrease,True,True,131.9341,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",flip,increase,False,True,117.72,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:40:35.243706Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,megacope. He isn't just posting in the morning and nights. He went from 278 to 287 since noon.,hold,decrease,False,True,6.4918,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T02:56:25.983607Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I'll never forget the time this rich motherfucker couldn't post 9 times Friday morning on a 400+ post week,hold,increase,False,True,90.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T14:19:34.869074Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"his average for the last week and past few days has been lower (lower than 70, currently 60). even if he does 70 on aver",flip,increase,False,True,12.8658,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T19:48:37.384756Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Not corrected yet. :D It's just Elon posting and your bracket might very well be hit. Just count the posts on the excel ,flip,hold,False,True,773.7717,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T00:40:39.525892Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"95 left for 1.6 day, it's gonna be a close one again",decrease,decrease,True,True,101.454,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:21:39.681533Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,he cant keep getting away with this.mp3,flip,decrease,False,True,52.0471,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T07:26:37.666165Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,nope. if he either keeps posting as he did so far or starts pamping he will pass 300. only if he decides to drop to old ,flip,increase,False,True,708.4673,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T02:54:03.312659Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"When he goes to sleep, u250 is shooting right back up.",decrease,decrease,True,True,180.609,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-19T17:18:52.355833Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"If this is to be my final stand, so be it.",hold,decrease,False,True,1249.76,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T13:14:51.659219Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"Not, pretty sure some money is better than no money",decrease,decrease,True,True,180.2839,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-15T17:28:06.604672Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Under 400$ is wellllll undervalued,hold,increase,False,True,99.9932,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:22:59.181419Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,No way he does 550 he has to sleep...,flip,increase,False,True,269.887,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T20:24:56.789594Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,he is doing DOGE stuff probs doesn¡¯t have his phone on him,decrease,hold,False,True,940.79,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-22T12:12:10.144049Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,"Come on, Elon, we missed you! :fire:",decrease,hold,False,True,17.271,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T16:33:16.517518Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"being tired is an argument for an increased number of tweets imo. At least judging from personal experience, it's when y",flip,increase,False,True,2.07,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T14:13:36.426278Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,do u guys still believe in 500?,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-01T11:51:57.441386Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,yeah and also that some tweets or even most consist of replies which wont even count,increase,decrease,False,True,120.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T18:48:47.210796Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,I don¡¯t understand why under 400 dropped that much? Do people consider the result ends in midday tomorrow? Elon usually,decrease,decrease,True,True,9.2133,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T18:43:57.562635Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,its weird that after he got 200 it suddenly crashed,increase,decrease,False,True,65.32,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T15:53:29.852739Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,He has better things to do this week. He'll do under 500 so that next week we can have 25 brackets ??,increase,increase,True,True,450.1419,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T17:48:04.292668Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,they selling dollars for 18 cents fa real ??,hold,decrease,False,True,102.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T14:49:12.804495Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"it really is 110, though. yu can count it and it actually has been counted by Polymarket despite the tracker displaying ",flip,decrease,False,True,609.32,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T22:03:47.097439Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,why you delete your message ? xD,increase,hold,False,True,30.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T09:42:43.240461Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Clearly you are new. Get ready for the rollercoaster ride pal,hold,decrease,False,True,71.2407,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T20:57:25.752361Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"if you sell with the ""market"" option, it sells instantly but you are going to lose a tiny bit of money, while if you sol",hold,hold,True,True,3000.0031,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T00:28:49.290033Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,tbf I counted it on the sheet now and the missing posts indeed are missing. that's quite lame and can ber very relevant ,flip,decrease,False,True,773.7717,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T00:45:27.346721Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,exactly 13 posts are missing. they are the ones between ''Orwellian....'' and ''Everyone knew...'' That's when the track,flip,decrease,False,True,773.7717,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T16:33:48.149129Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Elon needs to rest so he can go wild next week,hold,decrease,False,True,2.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T18:54:28.381537Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,Buy more no please and drop the price for yes,increase,decrease,False,True,450.1419,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T11:57:55.786215Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"should i sell my higher brackets and put the money into the other brackets or just hold until market ends, i spent $100 ",increase,decrease,False,True,14.646,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T08:11:05.707957Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"you are so stupid, that it hurts me. It happened many times in the past to finish under 450 when he was busy in DC",increase,increase,True,True,485.3693,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T16:40:09.018398Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,should i ape 20k into negative lower brackets?,increase,decrease,False,True,1567.0043,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T07:10:26.652342Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"This market is so dead, no one is buying limit orders, everyone wants to lowball",decrease,decrease,True,True,150.6729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:01:17.117582Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Remember the first 3 days of this week he tweeted like 5 times in 12 hours. There's always hope.,decrease,decrease,True,True,180.609,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-28T19:09:08.256588Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,so you're just lecturing two mentally retarded unemployed people? i like you dude!,increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:59:07.035502Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,buy 300 while it's cheap. he is on fire,hold,increase,False,True,54.1424,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T03:01:52.397924Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"it's looking ugly, i wouldn't leave my chair if i were you",hold,decrease,False,True,23.7083,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T14:42:07.331124Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Thats why yo mama on dat crack,increase,hold,False,True,204.01,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T15:23:28.246747Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"A good practice is to put up low af buy orders, some retards usually fill the entire order list",decrease,hold,False,True,116.0147,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T11:02:36.067779Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"if we look at his current pace, this is what the data suggests, (prediction using math and statistics based on probabili",hold,increase,False,True,18.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T10:10:06.706673Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"its a common rule, this is player vs player, people will do and say anything to trick and use them as exit Liquidity",hold,decrease,False,True,23.1737,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T17:11:01.616461Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,are these 10k here in room with us?,increase,hold,False,True,450.1419,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T04:08:32.332894Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Nah, he won't pass 450 before the last 24h",increase,flip,False,True,11.6471,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T07:57:41.350377Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,103. Two replies on the main feed.,flip,hold,False,True,708.4673,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-24T20:39:09.957432Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,01.29.2025: Tesla Q4 Earnings Release - new announcements on autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. 01.31.2025: Europ,increase,increase,True,True,1388.88,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T20:18:49.195861Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,so he did one post and then dipped lol,hold,decrease,False,True,120.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T17:37:53.819381Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"A thing is certain, nobody knows shit how this will end",hold,decrease,False,True,733.8764,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T14:50:01.293274Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Elon knows about this market and is trolling lol,increase,increase,True,True,204.01,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +521117,2025-01-31T19:23:48.653812Z,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,I would price it at best 5-10c [nfa],hold,decrease,False,True,1.6835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T01:48:38.266636Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Depends on his mood and work load,decrease,hold,False,True,80.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T12:09:47.427137Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Elon has posted an average of 37.8 times per day this week, and he's entering his least active days of the week.",decrease,decrease,True,True,97.594,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T20:19:39.486572Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"Wow, that's interesting. Tell us something else we didn't know.",decrease,hold,False,True,17.42,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T10:03:58.883596Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,I honestly think there might be a good chance this thing ends with like... 301-305 lol it's gonna be close for the under,increase,decrease,False,True,4.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:41:36.400263Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,what if he never left bed at all,flip,flip,True,True,31.8855,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T19:12:28.622448Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,under 450 is an easy win. told you guys,decrease,increase,False,True,6.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T16:48:58.022879Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,what is chance for Elon to wakeup and hit repost 6 times? Assume he did read before repost,hold,hold,True,True,10.75,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T07:42:04.479625Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Although, usual is 10 to 20 posts, so it's not crazy he will surpass 324 once he wakes up",flip,decrease,False,True,24.1647,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T16:14:02.505122Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,told you guys. follow my instructions,hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T15:16:02.585697Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"you could sell all of it since you're already profitable, but if you choose to stay don't sell yet, just keep the three ",increase,decrease,False,True,25.1,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-08T15:16:47.938952Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"The only thing true in this market, is that: Anything can happen. He actually had more than one week with under 450 post",increase,decrease,False,True,312.4035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T03:55:27.193718Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Not really lol. He's at 101 or something. Seems people are watching the tracker instead of his actual posts. Explains th,flip,increase,False,True,708.4673,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T08:06:35.576313Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,what time is he gonna wake up and fire off a couple hundred tweets?,flip,decrease,False,True,26.7924,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T23:18:16.555229Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Elon have stopped using twitter. Not even a space x landing from outer space will change that.,decrease,increase,False,True,50.4733,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T13:23:30.581368Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,he is already halfed in 30 minutes,decrease,decrease,True,True,31.7816,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:16:58.743014Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,for once I decide to be within the norms,increase,decrease,False,True,61.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T17:00:41.850653Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,he will go wild in a hour or two anyway,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T07:18:17.781297Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"That if he'll sleep at all. I don't think this guy will reach 60 years old. With his lifestyle and lack of sleep, i am s",hold,decrease,False,True,716.1444,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T09:22:48.994058Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,you'Re right and I was stupid again hahaha. there are many empty rows. 109 it is.,decrease,flip,False,True,99.3602,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:22:59.181419Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,No way he does 550 he has to sleep...,flip,increase,False,True,269.887,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",flip,increase,False,True,117.72,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T15:45:14.842741Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Intresting postion do you make profit IF it fall it falls in to this bracket?,increase,hold,False,True,1.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T00:31:30.320599Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Goot to see you have a positive P&L now!,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T14:06:40.511101Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,but if he post only 1 post now it will increase again,decrease,decrease,True,True,31.7816,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T11:40:28.070913Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,so elon went to sleep 5hrs ago. in 1 hr he tweets again,flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-04T17:51:40.618226Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,It makes me very sad to see so many fake bennys,increase,hold,False,True,14.6114,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T02:41:09.269158Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"im at a profit at every bracket, just around $500 less with 300-324. i find it's price a little too expensive rn but mig",hold,decrease,False,True,371.168,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:54:18.396671Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,also the website lags because so many of us try to access it,decrease,hold,False,True,499.4444,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T18:44:04.634148Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,There are so many that I just ignore them. I prefer stats guy,hold,hold,True,True,101.454,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T18:13:14.884563Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,are you gonna buy 2nd bracket?,hold,decrease,False,True,69.0048,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:39:49.811967Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,The u450 book order looks very funny. You can make it 60c. with 1k,increase,increase,True,True,525.8138,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:19:32.870587Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Did someone just fomo on u450 or is it an insider,increase,decrease,False,True,353.8178,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-20T16:50:40.921868Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,Thank you Elon for making me lose +400$,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.522,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T05:29:05.734575Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Why aren't you white vermin commenting?,increase,hold,False,True,201.5993,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-24T12:21:31.324105Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"dude, you literally wrote me about the pants and foaming XD you don't even need to say it about yourself, you are either",hold,hold,True,True,46.62,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-02T10:53:17.083098Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"Yes, i do agree that i'm a retard betting on Kanye. Will never do it again",increase,hold,False,True,334.0043,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +515555,2024-12-19T16:13:51.142883Z,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,"Not many posts expected today I guess. As per his agenda for tomorrow Dec 20th (12pm UTC), he might be busy monitoring t",increase,decrease,False,True,139.0465,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T08:26:54.213832Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,idk musk is slow af this time around,decrease,decrease,True,True,78.4949,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T01:21:16.152158Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,then you're blind or a liar. check the excel sheet on the tracker. where are his posts between the Orwelilian and the Ev,flip,decrease,False,True,773.7717,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T11:36:24.936068Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,"i agree, look at the volume difference, smth is up",increase,increase,True,True,9.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T13:40:31.236505Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"undervalued?! There is basically no sellers in this market, 3000 shares for 220 USD is way too much",hold,decrease,False,True,411.8266,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T16:53:18.378311Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,i just want to get back what i lost and then i wont have to see this retards tweets never again,hold,decrease,False,True,181.13,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T00:40:39.525892Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"95 left for 1.6 day, it's gonna be a close one again",decrease,decrease,True,True,101.454,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T17:33:35.144828Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,cuz not a lot of liquidity to eat up,increase,hold,False,True,1876.7599,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T04:05:05.739363Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,I just need 42 more tweets elon please,hold,decrease,False,True,12325.6427,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T19:20:15.298379Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,he usually doesnt post in the next few hours. Today is his slowest day. He might start a 12 AM ETD.,hold,decrease,False,True,120.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T17:46:26.590163Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Your loss of $77 could have bought you starbucks coffee for a month,flip,decrease,False,True,1.03,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-14T20:15:33.319391Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"hello, u450 is gonna go up about 4c by tommorow morning, stay with me now",increase,hold,False,True,3.78,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T05:21:25.523252Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,Makes you wonder if he watches this and posts accordingly to make us get off this and do something productive,hold,decrease,False,True,49.15,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T01:51:21.989529Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"Yeah, he'll probably spend the first half of his day at T-Mobile. No worries.",decrease,decrease,True,True,1245.5181,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T12:52:22.243533Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,This market literally moves for no reason... like Elon Musk isn't even on twitter rn,hold,decrease,False,True,22.473,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T10:22:07.104464Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,But there will be if you give them ??,decrease,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T06:48:06.666558Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Based on the analysis of 6,093 posts from April 18, 2024, to December 3, 2024:",decrease,increase,False,True,804.9,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T18:54:35.827832Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"this week has been so fking random man, was such a bad idea to bet on this lmao",decrease,decrease,True,True,231.9942,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T12:25:58.784108Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"theoretically even if he has another 2 spam session like this morning, the likelihood to go over 250 is low without a mi",decrease,decrease,True,True,158.5884,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T09:40:13.083181Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Midnight spam is bullish for lower brackets,increase,increase,True,True,372.1568,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T13:46:47.497004Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,less than 400 will boost to 65cents within next half an hour,decrease,increase,False,True,655.0965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T09:22:23.693398Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Oh my God he¡¯s up. Wtf!!!!! Not even 3 hours of sleep!!! F meeeee,hold,decrease,False,True,1162.0645,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T23:22:45.775459Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,he's on boys GAMBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA,flip,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T01:06:57.408982Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,and to think u400 was trading at 3.5c a couple days ago,increase,increase,True,True,20.161,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T07:37:50.467754Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,In which timezone is elon at the moment?,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:46:59.763622Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,he won't post much under 250 is a lock,flip,increase,False,True,549.1846,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T21:55:36.301435Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Oh I am sorry, am I supposed to put 10k dollars on that bet? Maybe then its gonna make you happy",decrease,decrease,True,True,11.15,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-01T00:16:38.242137Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,GG my guy. Loaded up big and hodld!,hold,increase,False,True,44.02,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:14:28.187417Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,bros hating on his own brackets,decrease,hold,False,True,180.609,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9a3fcaff63d7683ef8164420eec92b2cfe87c977 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,201 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +529581,2025-03-28T15:27:13.029647Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Tripled my 50 bucks last week and lost it all today... Anyone got some spare change please;(,hold,decrease,False,True,44.5218,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:25:15.071748Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,hahaha commenting like crazy but not a single post haha,flip,decrease,False,True,353.0636,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T15:03:17.319653Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,thanks. do you always buy out shares that are close to 0?,increase,hold,False,True,25.1,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-03T23:09:45.130987Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,never watched a live take-off. Might be worth tuning in.,decrease,hold,False,True,97.56,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T13:05:10.445881Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,Because the odds are undervalued.,hold,hold,True,True,9.9,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T18:13:14.884563Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,are you gonna buy 2nd bracket?,decrease,decrease,True,True,69.0048,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T13:23:42.215843Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"yes, keep counting on the onee time peak data :D",increase,increase,True,True,4.7978,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:08:00.105018Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,Lol. He can do 4 posts in lest than a minute,increase,increase,True,True,82.9637,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-01T17:33:48.466152Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"Dude, believing and buying are two different things!",flip,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-12T00:13:17.900345Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"Under 400 so free, look at the pace.",flip,increase,False,True,16.1,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:06:52.512024Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I closed my no and bought yes I think he is done,hold,increase,False,True,0.5066,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T09:47:59.001116Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Just a reminder that you can't just stats your way to win this market,hold,decrease,False,True,99.7432,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T21:16:02.545918Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"There¡¯s no confidence involved in gambling, it¡¯s all pure speculation.",hold,decrease,False,True,1.9749,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:27:06.673836Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,It can also be some White House or government employee that knows he'll be busy in the next days,increase,decrease,False,True,321.9778,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T07:41:00.307828Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"He didn't converted, he bought with market order",hold,hold,True,True,729.7214,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T09:28:05.122406Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,u could have told us before benny!!,hold,decrease,False,True,3.4101,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:09:12.034786Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Im literally about to cause a scene, BRO WHY AND WHAT I AM SO MAD",increase,decrease,False,True,204.01,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T16:54:23.640182Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"If X will work like this until Friday, that would increase the chances for u450 :))",increase,increase,True,True,458.4175,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T16:28:00.423769Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,the dude is out of the cage it seems,flip,increase,False,True,193.5615,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-02T06:50:52.321095Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,don¡¯t panic. he will sleep within 1h,hold,decrease,False,True,69.51,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T05:45:37.178508Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,How many tweets has he now?Is the tracker working?,increase,decrease,False,True,120.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-24T07:10:23.364018Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,down like the pants you dream of?,decrease,decrease,True,True,46.62,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T17:48:04.292668Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,they selling dollars for 18 cents fa real ??,decrease,decrease,True,True,102.71,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-19T15:56:34.880265Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,where is the source code of this xtracker?,increase,hold,False,True,49.5791,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T20:07:16.457671Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"It's old news, not the first time Grok says that",increase,hold,False,True,240.9339,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T16:24:36.312029Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"For all those that think Elon won¡¯t tweet, you¡¯re wrong. He lives on this ever since he bought Twitter",decrease,increase,False,True,2874.1407,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T14:13:09.496107Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"He saw ur comment n was like ""bet""",increase,flip,False,True,69.9262,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T14:49:47.018042Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"four days he posts 20 a day, and the one day he posts 90 everyone panick sells haha",decrease,hold,False,True,151.2264,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T13:19:17.569597Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Is he still in Washington DC? Has Trump adopted him?,increase,decrease,False,True,180.2839,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T15:51:51.066893Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,The real number doesn't count. This market resolves based on the tracker.,increase,hold,False,True,11.32,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T21:18:48.927895Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,u400 could be up to 50c if he has a quite night,increase,increase,True,True,2.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T08:06:35.576313Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,what time is he gonna wake up and fire off a couple hundred tweets?,flip,decrease,False,True,26.7924,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T23:09:41.443605Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"btw, would you like to work on a project related to Polymarket with me? Building something interesting",decrease,hold,False,True,4140.8113,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T07:53:22.044891Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"Breaking News: After speculation about his death, Elon Musk has confirmed he is, in fact, not dead following his ""ass s",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T01:15:36.112338Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Why are the rules vague? Why ''may'' X itself be used if it's not updating according to the rules. So it may be used and,flip,decrease,False,True,773.7717,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T10:38:17.460884Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Never play with cash you ain't ready to kiss goodbye.,decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-21T20:04:18.195131Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,love you 2 for being my most niche form of entertainment,hold,hold,True,True,101.0101,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T07:10:26.652342Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"This market is so dead, no one is buying limit orders, everyone wants to lowball",decrease,decrease,True,True,150.6729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T07:50:11.903702Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,425-449 in 32 Hours would be a precision landing. It would take him one busy session this night an he still has one full,hold,decrease,False,True,49.2485,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:45:25.997658Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"nooo, you can't make this mistake with 12k. You can make this mistake when you have 2 dollars, like benny32, but not wit",increase,increase,True,True,525.8138,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-28T15:59:56.425383Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"i mean call your mom, tell her you love her bro, before it's too late. Otherwise, suddenly your PNL will fall below $20 ",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T06:17:14.508395Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,Hopefully he went to sleep now,flip,decrease,False,True,596.625,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T08:30:50.879314Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"Lol, people fail to understand the addiction Elon has on X. If he has the time, he'll do 150 in a day.",increase,increase,True,True,240.9339,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-18T22:37:55.457003Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,any bot accounts in particular?,decrease,hold,False,True,33.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T16:01:47.606611Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"i hope Every one learn from the mistakes they did this week, Good luck to next week.",hold,decrease,False,True,42.2815,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T07:31:54.504708Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,lol under 400 has a real chance right now haha,flip,decrease,False,True,35.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T07:02:20.497248Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,I have been wondering how u499 is still in play since 2 days ago tbh XDD,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T01:00:52.865192Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,lil bro youre not fooling anyone but keep trying,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T22:33:25.331407Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"He's no longer spamming, just going 1 post at a time. Think it'll be 400-425, unfortunately.",decrease,decrease,True,True,17.42,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-24T15:25:37.606559Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,maybe just don't listen to strangers on the internet...,decrease,decrease,True,True,46.62,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T14:15:01.351494Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"that's science for him tho, past performance ""always"" predict future. Lets see",flip,increase,False,True,69.0048,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T10:56:27.304326Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,you think i spend 50 dollars on a lunch? thats a week of groceries for me big bruh,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.025,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-12T15:01:11.763309Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,That feeling when knee surgery is tomorrow ??,increase,decrease,False,True,3.729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T03:51:36.793395Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"I come here just to see Benny, don't care about autistic lesbian Elon who probably having orgy with Tesla robots",decrease,hold,False,True,63.0542,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T06:33:01.752742Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,I don't remember a slower start in the week since Christmas and DOGE week,increase,decrease,False,True,369.9035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T13:44:21.659655Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"If there is no spam, you send me your last 50c",increase,hold,False,True,372.6875,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:59:42.697593Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,It was rhetorical. Need to befriend a Russian hacker and aware him on this market.,hold,decrease,False,True,90.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-08T15:16:47.938952Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"The only thing true in this market, is that: Anything can happen. He actually had more than one week with under 450 post",increase,decrease,False,True,312.4035,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T16:12:25.212934Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,he's going to ramble about the executive order about AI Trump is going to sign today Kash Patel hearing today,decrease,increase,False,True,4492.48,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T11:05:41.946602Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,i think 399 posts with 1 more post in last minute,flip,flip,True,True,23.3363,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:51:05.047803Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,You guys can all go suck a fat cock fuck you all and ur sister. Dumbass cunt bitches made me ANGRY AS HELL FOR TELLING M,hold,flip,False,True,286.01,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T06:55:48.046956Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,I don't think they are counted,increase,decrease,False,True,3.3,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:58:57.001632Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,That¡¯s a fun bet with 8 dollars brother chill down it¡¯s a loss but would be funny if they win,flip,decrease,False,True,550.1846,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T18:46:59.763622Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,he won't post much under 250 is a lock,flip,increase,False,True,549.1846,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-28T17:51:27.781194Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"yep, as expected, the argumentation is over",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T13:46:12.034889Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"oh you bought at 15 and panic sold at 17, now you regret and telling people to sell so you can buy cheaper. Skunk",flip,decrease,False,True,69.0048,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-22T16:59:58.132571Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"At this moment, i am very confident he does not have access to his phone",decrease,decrease,True,True,251.8475,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T06:16:55.314952Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,i'm all set for the ketamusk ride,increase,hold,False,True,43.6992,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T02:24:02.320098Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Did something happen to him? This is not his habit. I even doubt if he is alive.,decrease,decrease,True,True,33.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T15:02:18.916505Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"reposts count too yes, replies not",decrease,hold,False,True,80.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-11T12:11:11.608645Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,How do u get chatgpt to do that,increase,hold,False,True,1842.7683,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T10:08:28.182957Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"elon is very busy this week. 500 tweets is a lot, and he¡¯s only surpassed that a few times. So buying under 500 is basi",flip,increase,False,True,36.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:25:25.312198Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,2 more. ok he's passing 350. I love Elon,hold,flip,False,True,2.9726,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T16:11:52.214365Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,fuck this dumb ass 25 brackets shit!!!! tf am i supposed to do i only got 200,hold,decrease,False,True,181.13,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T11:36:20.025524Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Man this dude is so unpredictable it¡¯s great!,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T18:56:01.441237Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,guys i changed the program. i want to go negative on purpose to experience the feeling of failure that many people have ,decrease,flip,False,True,41.0,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T15:46:52.788216Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,you can give it a shot but I think it would be more probable for him to be dead then not to repost 4 times in 2 Days,flip,decrease,False,True,120.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T16:52:46.574879Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,How many tweets has he already since new market startet? 8?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1200.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T12:09:47.427137Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"Elon has posted an average of 37.8 times per day this week, and he's entering his least active days of the week.",decrease,decrease,True,True,97.594,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",flip,increase,False,True,117.72,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:14:15.291856Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,omg he need to sleep or he is terminator,increase,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T01:15:05.605259Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Ive been in this website since last year Nov 29. i wish i discovered this market first rather then the crypto market. ne,decrease,hold,False,True,62.2784,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:41:36.400263Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,what if he never left bed at all,flip,flip,True,True,31.8855,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-17T00:53:50.658627Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,Easy win people be chill he will post enough,hold,increase,False,True,54.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T10:29:08.887809Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Thanks for the cny money, Elon ??",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T05:20:22.213718Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,okokok elon calm down a bit Xd,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-20T07:50:11.903702Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,425-449 in 32 Hours would be a precision landing. It would take him one busy session this night an he still has one full,hold,decrease,False,True,49.2485,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T21:28:31.605248Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,bro you just lost halve of your portfolio,flip,decrease,False,True,30.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:45:59.188496Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,because of 275-299 and 300-324,hold,decrease,False,True,90.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-12T13:29:43.490694Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"No, all tweets were counted not only 12 hours of the first day.",increase,decrease,False,True,3.729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T21:29:19.477324Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,thanks man i will dig into that !,hold,hold,True,True,3000.0031,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T10:50:23.330169Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,you will paper hand your position before Elon takes his first morning shit,decrease,decrease,True,True,258.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T17:22:25.914227Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"it's all true, i found it myself",flip,hold,False,True,36.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T14:14:06.605151Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"y see top holders a lot of people ""holding"" a lot of bets at the same time, how they make money, y mean is worth it at l",decrease,decrease,True,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T10:09:52.868373Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"People read into previous patterns like crazy. Coping beyond repair. He's clearly busy these days, but that's too much t",flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T10:21:39.681533Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,he cant keep getting away with this.mp3,flip,decrease,False,True,52.0471,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T19:39:47.830615Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Haaahahah where are the dumb copers now who said under 400 was not possible,hold,increase,False,True,0.97,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-28T15:59:44.590328Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"it's funny to see how the person who said that unemployed benny has a lot of time to comment, leaves comments under ever",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-09T08:29:58.864511Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Man I lost all my gains from last week to this,flip,decrease,False,True,3.8768,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T14:07:14.601344Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,elon is going to give me a heart attack,flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T10:46:24.263234Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Elon is awake :D He will sleep over the day :D,decrease,hold,False,True,217.7078,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-24T07:55:31.894071Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"Sleep well, Elon, we don't need to exaggerate, 500 would be a perfect spot to land on.",decrease,decrease,True,True,46.62,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T15:29:41.429797Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,The next 24h are importamt and If he doesnt Break 100 Posts its over,flip,decrease,False,True,353.0636,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T05:50:19.300211Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Not good if he¡¯s still awake as he hasn¡¯t tweeted in over an hour,decrease,decrease,True,True,420.84,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-25T21:51:37.850485Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"but tbh you kinda pursuaded me, so i also bought your bracket",flip,increase,False,True,35.6,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T04:08:32.332894Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Nah, he won't pass 450 before the last 24h",increase,flip,False,True,11.6471,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T19:02:57.849169Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,thanks for giving to me your loss,decrease,decrease,True,True,456.0924,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T16:57:41.023127Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"Maybe a bit, but the bulk of it will be after the results. We're on the same side either way. I'm fairly confident in un",decrease,decrease,True,True,1229.12,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T21:20:10.887987Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"atm 70 in any day isnt easy or expected, the way his pace is",decrease,decrease,True,True,200.835,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T14:58:08.747884Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,what the total so far? is it still 96?,hold,hold,True,True,5.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T23:50:20.041676Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,yeah this man just launched his own rocket and he replies on a post about politics i can't anymore,hold,decrease,False,True,3000.0031,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:08:13.709613Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,taking my time to read your comment is such life waste,hold,decrease,False,True,5.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T19:41:26.983344Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Remove the i from ican. Just a simple typo.,decrease,hold,False,True,27.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-26T15:35:41.566854Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,no spam today? this guy has us on the most twisting roller coaster ever,increase,decrease,False,True,16.0026,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T07:51:44.939254Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,don't really get why 400 or less is still so cheap,decrease,increase,False,True,655.0965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T19:11:46.938314Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,i think its very unlikely to get there,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T05:42:18.797947Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,If he barely post tonight then u400 is pre much a win hehe,increase,increase,True,True,70.92,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-28T19:09:08.256588Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,so you're just lecturing two mentally retarded unemployed people? i like you dude!,flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T11:45:21.213641Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"I wont because i am Most likely in the right track, 80 Posts thenlast four days and you gamble your money on 170 the nex",flip,increase,False,True,353.0636,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T14:30:58.012939Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"doesnt have to end up under 500 but if you look at historical data it is more likely than not, 20c is a grab",flip,increase,False,True,117.72,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T19:20:15.298379Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,he usually doesnt post in the next few hours. Today is his slowest day. He might start a 12 AM ETD.,flip,decrease,False,True,120.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T12:52:22.243533Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,This market literally moves for no reason... like Elon Musk isn't even on twitter rn,hold,decrease,False,True,22.473,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T08:01:37.924876Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,NOT THAT THERE WOULD BE BUT HAHAHHAHAHAHHA,decrease,decrease,True,True,1.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-15T20:05:07.280872Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"He ain't tweeting cuz he got 7th starship launch , might be the easiest money i ever made",hold,increase,False,True,69.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T10:13:01.760073Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,thanks in advance for the money you'll give me for free,flip,decrease,False,True,36.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T17:46:26.590163Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Your loss of $77 could have bought you starbucks coffee for a month,flip,decrease,False,True,1.03,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:01:17.117582Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Remember the first 3 days of this week he tweeted like 5 times in 12 hours. There's always hope.,decrease,decrease,True,True,180.609,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:48:22.122167Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,you argument for pump and dump is invalid. There is not enough liquidity in this market for that. The price needs to be ,increase,hold,False,True,525.8138,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T06:23:31.262929Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Well no shit, you gotta take risks in life",hold,increase,False,True,11.6367,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T18:00:51.334091Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Have you saw this? X is down again,increase,hold,False,True,458.4175,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T15:04:49.957312Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,Gambling retards buy 250-275 to satisfy their addiction,flip,decrease,False,True,353.0636,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T23:41:30.453118Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"if you dont believe me try betting on the crypto markets, you will soon get my point",decrease,hold,False,True,62.2784,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T03:01:52.397924Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"it's looking ugly, i wouldn't leave my chair if i were you",flip,decrease,False,True,23.7083,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-06T07:34:09.245036Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"If he is gonna spam like last launch, it gonna be crazy.",flip,increase,False,True,1592.7805,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T06:48:53.094334Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,He is a fucking egomaniac who likes to suck his own dick and post other people on his feed that pump his fragile ego. Fu,hold,decrease,False,True,715.8024,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T00:58:25.474189Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,Less than 300 going up as he tweets LMFAO,flip,decrease,False,True,4.7083,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T15:25:03.254529Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,10 in 35 minutes? Totally possible,hold,increase,False,True,33.5073,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-20T08:21:19.619579Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,so tempted to sell my positions and go in on 600-649.,hold,decrease,False,True,1249.76,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-04T10:00:08.430774Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,actually crazy how quick people are to panic sell,decrease,increase,False,True,335.4183,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T12:38:48.364759Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"haha its great, thanks for laughs!!! :D",decrease,hold,False,True,655.0965,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T01:12:47.672345Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"hes right, for example its gonna skew super low this time since he had a slow weekend which usually is what pushes him h",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T13:23:42.215843Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"yes, keep counting on the onee time peak data :D",increase,increase,True,True,4.7978,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-01T11:51:57.441386Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,yeah and also that some tweets or even most consist of replies which wont even count,flip,decrease,False,True,120.89,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T04:16:34.905928Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,lol it was looking like an easy win earlier today,flip,decrease,False,True,12325.6427,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T13:45:48.306946Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"people are starting to see, that only two days left and 400+ is not happening for sure:)",decrease,increase,False,True,655.0965,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-17T22:22:24.582758Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Its prob less than 400. My man finally has a life and not just sitting on X ??,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-18T01:18:31.227552Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Thats a big loss if he doesn't start posting ??,increase,decrease,False,True,70.92,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T08:54:26.925857Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,"he is tired because of the full day he had yesterday, he will sleep until at least 10'o clock, and then he'll have a mee",increase,increase,True,True,254.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T15:08:59.762223Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I downloaded the file he's last tweets total was on 496 which he replied with yup now he tweeted 3 more from that making,hold,increase,False,True,5.5,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T14:19:34.869074Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"his average for the last week and past few days has been lower (lower than 70, currently 60). even if he does 70 on aver",flip,increase,False,True,12.8658,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-12T15:56:46.900832Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,I guess he is starting to slow down,hold,decrease,False,True,21.9133,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T06:51:57.286059Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,actually i think its time for sleep XD,hold,decrease,False,True,45.6192,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T19:47:26.183422Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,I think there is a bug. I also can't see in my position anything that i've added or sold in the last 2 hours,increase,decrease,False,True,366.2721,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T16:33:16.517518Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"being tired is an argument for an increased number of tweets imo. At least judging from personal experience, it's when y",flip,increase,False,True,2.07,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-19T14:06:45.255972Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,I'm new and idk how this works but he tweet 2 times and % go down 7%? Then the good way to make money here is just tradi,decrease,decrease,True,True,75.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +538215,2025-04-25T05:54:24.472441Z,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,even in his better weeks he did like 30 posts in the last 12 hours (just look up the average on musktracker). Now he wou,flip,increase,False,True,596.625,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-03T19:10:57.222289Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"bought this at 8c, just wish i bought more sadge",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T08:09:21.912302Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,"I wouldn't think of it that wy otherwise you'll panic. it is 0, 0, 0, 8, 0, 0, 5...not costant :D",flip,hold,False,True,835.4746,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-13T10:54:37.993027Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,But what abt this one? Is there no way to recover this?,hold,decrease,False,True,0.6545,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T21:49:39.491796Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,Alright pal u have 200 and sit here all day perhaps get a job?,decrease,decrease,True,True,940.79,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-16T10:21:08.965616Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,"i really dont like the weekly crypto market, its where i got the negative pnl. Elon tweets markets are less stressful an",increase,hold,False,True,23.1737,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-13T12:53:35.839934Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"Are you ready, open up that ass",hold,hold,True,True,11.6367,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T19:08:41.975055Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"weird pricing of the brackets, the market thinks that if he'll do over 450, he'll do at least 475",increase,decrease,False,True,617.4798,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-13T19:25:01.905862Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,"why did you buy it for 15 cents? That price is nowhere near this price, i think thats the reason. Did you lose balance?",increase,decrease,False,True,5.729,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-23T04:33:22.137297Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,"-800 coming soon, to a theater near you. Then -1000...then -2000. It's inevitable, but what can you expect from the vacu",hold,flip,False,True,32.0881,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:19:32.870587Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,Did someone just fomo on u450 or is it an insider,increase,decrease,False,True,353.8178,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T10:08:14.059019Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,i don't have much to gamble started with 10 had 20,decrease,decrease,True,True,3.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-05T19:34:26.345544Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,i hope it stays under 500 bought some 500-559 to cover,increase,decrease,False,True,13.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-27T19:44:18.380453Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,I think converting my shares was a bad idea...,hold,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-26T22:03:47.097439Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,why you delete your message ? xD,flip,hold,False,True,30.6,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +528110,2025-03-15T17:28:06.604672Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,Under 400$ is wellllll undervalued,increase,increase,True,True,99.9932,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-29T10:11:32.564744Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"lets pray he slows tweeting down. i bet too much lol. yeah, my bad.",flip,decrease,False,True,708.0219,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:32:06.278984Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"at this point, just coping 275 doesn't hit. Usually, Fridays are pretty slow so I will hold till the end.",hold,hold,True,True,90.5,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +518120,2025-01-16T14:19:26.378654Z,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,@elontesla please buy all my 450-499 shares thank you,increase,hold,False,True,1559.2822,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T19:08:41.975055Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,"weird pricing of the brackets, the market thinks that if he'll do over 450, he'll do at least 475",increase,decrease,False,True,617.4798,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-28T07:22:30.104904Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,I have a feeling that 450 will soon collapse but time will tell.,hold,decrease,False,True,42.2815,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +529581,2025-03-24T12:21:31.324105Z,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,"dude, you literally wrote me about the pants and foaming XD you don't even need to say it about yourself, you are either",decrease,hold,False,True,46.62,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523033,2025-02-14T04:05:05.739363Z,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,I just need 42 more tweets elon please,flip,decrease,False,True,12325.6427,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T05:12:23.798678Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,watch it stay under 275 now that I've switched.,hold,decrease,False,True,90.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-30T14:45:00.961065Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"well elon doesn't post much on fridays, so today we will see",flip,hold,False,True,708.0219,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-05-02T16:04:46.797115Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,Lol just now he tweets as this is done lol,hold,hold,True,True,60.1524,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +539617,2025-04-30T11:12:04.440188Z,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,"14 hours ago i bought 150-174 at 13c, now it's at 46c. ""you're retarded"" they said. told you guys.",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T06:49:47.133501Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,but he probs isn¡¯t asleep cause it¡¯s only 12:45,decrease,hold,False,True,420.84,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-16T08:02:42.887477Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,its gonna be 3 am he likely wont tweet until the morning,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-10T10:03:27.356449Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,losing all my gains to this bs was heartbreaking won't play it anymore,decrease,decrease,True,True,3.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +527180,2025-03-11T18:39:49.811967Z,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,The u450 book order looks very funny. You can make it 60c. with 1k,increase,increase,True,True,525.8138,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T13:04:33.264201Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Elon knows, I need that money to see the love of my life so im okay",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519017,2025-01-24T09:57:09.856395Z,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,same thank god i sold 300-324 and bought 325-349,decrease,increase,False,True,4.0583,INCREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-18T22:37:22.834811Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,Is it profitable buying all positions? why did u do that,decrease,decrease,True,True,33.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T04:03:36.287387Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,jus put 10 into the yes to make 100 n hedge jus in caseeeee,increase,decrease,False,True,26.1128,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +523486,2025-02-15T10:36:13.326389Z,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,"-300 dollars, i don¡¯t talk to people like you, sorry",flip,decrease,False,True,36.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-31T00:18:30.037399Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"I honestly think under and over 250 should be 50-50 at this point. Hell, just look at the rate. Keep in mind, it's going",hold,decrease,False,True,90.5,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T05:37:59.823517Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,He has to go to sleep you white retards,hold,decrease,False,True,251.5993,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T05:29:05.734575Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,Why aren't you white vermin commenting?,increase,hold,False,True,201.5993,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-02T18:01:57.848742Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,HAve you still not noticed that the counter wasn'T working and the count hasn't been corrected yet? :),decrease,flip,False,True,98.4402,FLIP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:19:56.563475Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"He's just not going to sleep. It's over. Looks like I'm giving out handjobs to get back this $1,200.",hold,decrease,False,True,1162.0645,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +514253,2024-12-05T07:04:06.889255Z,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,up to Elon's whim and health. since he's in the habit of posting on mornings now and since he still does have two mornin,flip,hold,False,True,177.2934,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-02T17:47:41.212004Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,"I don't understand the reference about fish sticks. Nevermind, we'll see how the week goes.",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.6,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +519877,2025-01-28T10:29:08.887809Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,"Thanks for the cny money, Elon ??",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +526076,2025-03-07T10:48:41.209445Z,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,And he had to do it in our bracket,hold,hold,True,True,9.8655,HOLD,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..388865cee08cc00531019e5b7f628d839561ac7c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.19484848484848485,0.11,-0.08484848484848485,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,33,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.47562499999999996,0.276,-0.19962499999999994,DOWN,0.8303201066329403,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,36,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.23328125,0.44453125,0.21125,UP,1.1666588297459024,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,32,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.07125,0.12435416666666667,0.053104166666666675,UP,1.1464351959057557,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,24,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.3535714285714286,0.47214285714285714,0.11857142857142855,UP,0.4661707061290536,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,7,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.33497142857142864,0.6160000000000001,0.28102857142857146,UP,0.37281196398300215,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,35,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +6,0.4970142857142857,0.36491428571428575,-0.13209999999999994,DOWN,0.4297270797782573,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,35,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.47214285714285714,0.7071428571428572,0.23500000000000004,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,7,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.07903030303030303,0.0005000000000000001,-0.07853030303030303,DOWN,0.7940394785515238,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,33,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.3337857142857143,0.4446785714285714,0.11089285714285713,UP,2.3108701619332037,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,28,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.383,0.41200000000000003,0.029000000000000026,UP,0.464413234944061,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,5,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.6265624999999999,0.55296875,-0.0735937499999999,DOWN,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,32,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.15583333333333335,0.31075,0.15491666666666667,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.13908333333333334,0.01674999999999999,-0.12233333333333335,DOWN,1.000173347013671,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,24,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.38106944444444446,0.47562499999999996,0.0945555555555555,UP,0.7367379919358281,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,36,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.3294000000000001,0.4170000000000001,0.08760000000000001,UP,0.8977533776013454,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,30,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.12435416666666667,0.19810416666666666,0.07375,UP,0.9295366897603072,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,24,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.08144444444444446,0.0633888888888889,-0.01805555555555556,DOWN,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.6160000000000001,0.4970142857142857,-0.11898571428571442,DOWN,0.212094011566048,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,35,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.55296875,0.27515625,-0.2778125,DOWN,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,32,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +20,0.3090625,0.5146875,0.20562499999999995,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,16,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +21,0.5146875,0.4803125,-0.03437499999999999,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,16,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +22,0.41200000000000003,0.4800000000000001,0.06800000000000006,UP,0.8297260481307704,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,5,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +23,0.8657142857142858,0.9007142857142857,0.03499999999999992,UP,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,7,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +24,0.17056250000000003,0.13908333333333334,-0.0314791666666667,DOWN,0.08547108406884084,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,24,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7348468bc71315b7781345f7d7fae7832bee6f5d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/polymarket/tech_other/qwen3_polymarket_tech_other_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +6,0.3225,0.618125,0.295625,UP,0.40277083500195526,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +3,0.04775,0.07960526315789475,0.03185526315789475,UP,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 225¨C249 times April 18¨C25?,10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +1,0.5684848484848484,0.3189583333333333,-0.24952651515151508,DOWN,0.30752555465684467,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,66,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +5,0.16653846153846155,0.24291666666666667,0.07637820512820512,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,13,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +0,0.14479999999999998,0.10002083333333334,-0.04477916666666665,DOWN,0.3960870404047287,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?,25,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +4,0.095625,0.07310416666666666,-0.022520833333333337,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,8,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +10,0.16772727272727272,0.19833333333333333,0.03060606060606061,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,11,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +11,0.16624999999999998,0.27875,0.11250000000000002,UP,0.772159923943574,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,8,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +9,0.5157692307692308,0.7197916666666666,0.20402243589743585,UP,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,26,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +12,0.1925,0.20166666666666666,0.009166666666666656,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?,6,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +8,0.33722905027932953,0.276,-0.06122905027932951,DOWN,0.18102956078121885,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?,179,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +7,0.09916666666666668,0.1725,0.0733333333333333,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?,9,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +2,0.49,0.13083333333333333,-0.35916666666666663,DOWN,0.9334986365724375,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,18,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +18,0.5264615384615384,0.102625,-0.42383653846153846,DOWN,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,65,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +17,0.06936538461538462,0.21564583333333334,0.1462804487179487,UP,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?,26,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +16,0.23149999999999998,0.310625,0.079125,UP,1.2611750928200427,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,10,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +19,0.6738372093023255,0.6166666666666667,-0.057170542635658794,DOWN,0.0,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?,43,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +21,0.3088372093023255,0.20713333333333342,-0.10170387596899208,DOWN,0.7520792380855978,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,43,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +20,0.36986,0.61875,0.24889,UP,1.2176574841508907,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?,50,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +13,0.44119047619047624,0.365,-0.07619047619047625,DOWN,0.9784329774073703,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?,42,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +15,0.492375,0.5404583333333334,0.04808333333333337,UP,0.05318416015329141,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,64,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +24,0.3559090909090909,0.5639583333333333,0.20804924242424244,UP,0.6820125075080381,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 150¨C174 times April 25¨CMay 2?,11,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +22,0.3627777777777778,0.64125,0.2784722222222222,UP,0.4936793205921716,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?,9,UP,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +14,0.47700877192982455,0.17814583333333334,-0.2988629385964912,DOWN,0.2473187643557707,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?,57,DOWN,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 +23,0.636829268292683,0.6245833333333334,-0.01224593495934967,DOWN,0.9530338398727072,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?,41,NEUTRAL,openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5 diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/run_metadata_task01.json b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/run_metadata_task01.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..56f6bf501f6823fcabba6ff22fff69b77c9b38ca --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/run_metadata_task01.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "model": "openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5", + "task": "task01", + "version": "V16", + "backend": "openrouter", + "temperature": 0.0, + "seed": 42, + "run_full": false, + "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-30T12:33:23.973297+00:00", + "out_dir": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/run_metadata_task2.json b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/run_metadata_task2.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..022730ebbf394fc30ec19ae1b156cda036dc993a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/run_metadata_task2.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "model": "openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5", + "task": "task2", + "version": "V16", + "backend": "openrouter", + "temperature": 0.0, + "seed": 42, + "run_full": false, + "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-30T12:35:11.373838+00:00", + "out_dir": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/run_metadata_task3.json b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/run_metadata_task3.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..59f28a32edae77fc343e50e7b71d337736b565ae --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Openrouter-CLAUDE-HAIKU-4.5/run_metadata_task3.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "model": "openrouter:claude-haiku-4.5", + "task": "task3", + "version": "V16", + 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+ "ts": "2026-04-29 15:21:10" + }, + "manifold/science/task0_0shot": { + "done": true, + "ts": "2026-04-29 15:22:20" + }, + "manifold/science/task1": { + "done": true, + "ts": "2026-04-29 15:24:17" + }, + "manifold/social/task0_1shot": { + "done": true, + "ts": "2026-04-29 15:25:06" + }, + "manifold/social/task0_0shot": { + "done": true, + "ts": "2026-04-29 15:26:03" + }, + "manifold/social/task1": { + "done": true, + "ts": "2026-04-29 15:27:36" + }, + "manifold/sports_other/task0_1shot": { + "done": true, + "ts": "2026-04-29 15:28:01" + }, + "manifold/sports_other/task0_0shot": { + "done": true, + "ts": "2026-04-29 15:28:18" + }, + "manifold/sports_other/task1": { + "done": true, + "ts": "2026-04-29 15:30:37" + }, + "manifold/tech_ai/task0_1shot": { + "done": true, + "ts": "2026-04-29 15:29:55" + }, + "manifold/tech_ai/task0_0shot": { + "done": true, + "ts": "2026-04-29 15:31:11" + }, + "manifold/tech_ai/task1": { + "done": true, + "ts": "2026-04-29 15:33:18" + }, + 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